WorldWideScience

Sample records for examining secular trends

  1. Secular trends in growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

    2017-06-01

    Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  2. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using ...

  3. [Secular trends of premarital medical examination in China during 1996 and 2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yu-bo; Luo, Shu-sheng; Li, Hong-tian; Gao, Yan-qiu; Liu, Jian-meng

    2015-06-18

    To describe the secular trends of premarital medical examination (PME) in China during 1996 and 2013 and to assess the impacts of national health policies on the PME rate. The information on marriage and PME for districts and counties in 31 provinces of China was annually collected by the Office for National Maternal & Child Health Statistics of China, and the information on the health policies was from official governmental websites. According to the main health policies, the calendar years were categorized into 3 periods: 1996 to 2003 was mandatory PME period; 2004 to 2008 was encouraged voluntary PME period; and 2009 to 2013 was free-paid voluntary PME period. During the 18-year period, 284 242 719 people were registered for a marriage in which 107 198 795 were examined, giving the PME rate of 37.7%. During the mandatory PME period, the rate ranged 52.7%-67.7% with an average of 60.9% (urban 71.5%, and rural 51.7%). In 2004, the first year when the PME became voluntary, the rate was abruptly dropped to 2.6%, and thereafter gradually increased to 11.5% in 2008. As the policies of the free-paid voluntary PME were subsequently issued, the rate was quickly increased to 52.3% (urban 49.8%, and rural 54.6%) in 2013. The increasing trend was consistently observed both in urban and rural areas, and across East, Middle, West, and Northeast economical regions. However, the rates differed greatly among provinces. In 2013, 5 provinces had rates of >90% (Guangxi 97.5%, Fujian 96.0%, Ningxia 95.4%, Zhejiang 93.4% and Anhui 90.1%), whereas some provinces were stuck at a low rate, including developed and underdeveloped provinces/cities. The PME rate in 2013 was 27.4% for Shanghai, 25.5% for Guangdong, 12.4% for Chongqing, 5.8% for Beijing and 4.6% for Tianjin. Underdeveloped provinces were Guizhou (6.4%) and Qinghai (1.8%). As various national policies to promote voluntary PME were issued, the PME rate was significantly increased after a sharp decline, though it varied greatly

  4. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were...... higher using the dynamic model, and graduate changes in seasonal pattern is seen. Conclusion  Analyses conducted with this model provide detailed insights not available from more traditional analyses. The post-hoc analysis gives ideas to identify possible causal factors and confounders....

  5. PEDIATRIC FITNESS: SECULAR TRENDS AND GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant R. Tomkinson

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available DESCRIPTION This book describes and discusses children's physical capacity in terms of aerobic and anaerobic power generation according to secular trends and geographic variability. PURPOSE To discuss the controversial issue of whether present day's children and adolescents are fitter than their equals of the past and whether they are fitter if they live in the more prosperous countries. AUDIENCE Pediatricians, medical practitioners, physical educators, exercise and/or sport scientists, exercise physiologists, personal trainers and graduate students in relevant fields will find this book helpful when dealing with contemporary trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. FEATURES The volume starts by examining the general picture on children fitness by the editors. The individual chapter's authors discuses the data gathered since the late 1950s on secular trends and geographic changeability in aerobic and anaerobic pediatric fitness performances of children and adolescents from 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. There are chapters proposing that there is proof that there has been a world-wide decline in pediatric aerobic performance in recent decades, relative stability in anaerobic performance, and that the best performing children come from northern and central Europe. In final chapters possible causes to that end are considered, including whether weakening in aerobic performance are the result of distributional or widespread declines, and whether increases in obesity alone can explain the failure in aerobic performance. ASSESSMENT The editors have assembled a volume of Medicine and Sports Science that is necessary and essential reading for all who are interested in understanding and improving the fitness of children. The readers will find useful information in this book on secular trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. I believe, the book will serve as a first

  6. Secular trends for skinfolds differ from those for BMI and waist circumference among adults examined in NHANES from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010.

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    Freedman, David S; Zemel, Babette S; Ogden, Cynthia L

    2017-01-01

    Although the prevalence of a body mass index [BMI (in kg/m(2))] ≥30 has tripled among US adults since the 1960s, BMI is only moderately correlated with body fatness. Because skinfolds can more accurately estimate body fatness than can BMI, it is possible that skinfolds could be useful in monitoring secular trends in body fatness. We examined whether there were similar secular trends for skinfolds (triceps and subscapular), BMI, and waist circumference between US adults. This study was an analysis of 45,754 adults who participated in the NHANES from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010. Approximately 19% of the subjects were missing ≥1 skinfold-thickness measurement. These missing values were imputed from other characteristics. Trends in mean levels and in the prevalence of high levels of the 4 body size measures were fairly similar between men, with mean levels increasing by ≥5% from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010. Slightly larger increases were seen in women for BMI and waist circumference (7-8%), but trends in skinfolds were markedly different. The mean triceps skinfold, for example, increased by 2 mm through 2003-2004, but subsequently decreased so that the mean in 2009-2010 did not differ from that in 1988-1994. Compared with obese women in 1988-1994, the mean BMI of obese women in 2009-2010 was 1 higher, but mean levels of both skinfolds were 5-10% lower. Although there were fairly similar trends in levels of BMI, waist circumference, and skinfold thicknesses in men in the United States from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010, there were substantial differences in women. Our results indicate that it is unlikely that skinfold thicknesses could be used to monitor trends in obesity. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

  7. Ten-Year Secular Trends in Youth Violence: Results from the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2003-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, Andrew C.; Patterson, Freda; Luna, Ingrid Y.; Hohl, Bernadette; Bauer, Katherine W.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Youth violence reduction is a public health priority, yet few studies have examined secular trends in violence among urban youth, who may be particularly vulnerable to numerous forms of violence. This study examines 10-year secular trends in the prevalence of violence-related behaviors among Philadelphia high school students. Methods:…

  8. Socioeconomic development and secular trend in height in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui; Wu, Hua-Hong; Zhang, Ya-Qin

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the effect of socioeconomic development on secular trend in height among children and adolescents in China. Body height and spermarcheal/menarcheal ages were obtained from two periodic large-scale national representative surveys in China between 1975 and 2010. Chinese socioeconomic development indicators were obtained from the United Nations world population prospects. The effects of plausible determinants were assessed by partial least-squares regression. The average height of children and adolescents improved in tandem with socioeconomic development, without any tendency to plateau. The increment of height trend presented larger around puberty than earlier or later ages. The partial least-squares regressions with gross national income, life expectancy and spermarcheal/menarcheal age accounted for increment of height trend from 88.3% to 98.3% for males and from 82.9% to 97.3% for females in adolescence. Further, through the analysis of the variable importance for projection, the contributions of gross national income and life expectancy on height increment were confirmed to be significant in childhood and adolescence, and the contribution of spermarcheal/menarcheal age was superior to both of them in adolescence. We concluded that positive secular trend in height in China was significantly associated with socioeconomic status (GNI as indicator) and medical and health conditions (life expectancy as indicator). Earlier onset of spermarche and menarche proved to be an important role in larger increment of the trend over time of height at puberty for a population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Progress towards tuberculosis elimination: secular trend, immigration and transmission.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borgdorff, M.W.; Hof, S. van den; Kremer, K.; Verhagen, L.; Kalisvaart, N.; Erkens, C.; Soolingen, D. van

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to determine to what extent tuberculosis trends in the Netherlands depend on secular trend, immigration and recent transmission. Data on patients in the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register in the period 1993-2007 were matched with restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP)

  10. Progress towards tuberculosis elimination: secular trend, immigration and transmission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borgdorff, M. W.; van den Hof, S.; Kremer, K.; Verhagen, L.; Kalisvaart, N.; Erkens, C.; van Soolingen, D.

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to determine to what extent tuberculosis trends in the Netherlands depend on secular trend, immigration and recent transmission. Data on patients in the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register in the period 1993-2007 were matched with restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP)

  11. Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

    2014-08-01

    Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall

  12. Evidence of secular trend in mandibular pubertal growth.

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    Patcas, Raphael; Wiedemeier, Daniel B; Markic, Goran; Beit, Philipp; Keller, Heidi

    2017-04-20

    During puberty, mandibular growth follows a growth curve comparable to somatic growth. This study aimed to review the relationship between mandibular pubertal peak height velocity (PHV) and skeletal age, and to investigate the possibility of a secular trend. Retrospective analysis was performed of two historical craniofacial growth studies (Denver Growth Study; observational time: 1943-1965, and Zurich Growth Study; observational time: 1982-1984) of healthy untreated subjects. Two mandibular growth measures (Articulare-Pogonion [Ar-Pg], Condylion-Pogonion [Co-Pg]) were retrieved from cephalograms (n: 990) and corresponding skeletal age based on hand-wrist radiographs. Mandibular growth velocity was related to skeletal age, PHV was established by use of cubic smoothing splines and variability was calculated by bootstrap resampling for every growth study and gender separately. Sexual dimorphism in mandibular growth was apparent in both cohorts. In subjects of the Denver Growth Study, mandibular PHV occurred at a more advanced skeletal age than in subjects of the Zurich Growth Study. This trend was more pronounced in males, for whom PHV of Co-Pg shifted from 14.4 to 13.8 years and of Ar-Pg from 14.6 to 13.7 years. This tendency was more subtle in females: PHV of Co-Pg shifted from 12.7 to 12.4 years and of Ar-Pg from 12.6 to 11.8 years. Mandibular growth appears to be subject to a secular trend. When related to skeletal age, this secular trend seems to be more accentuated than the established secular trend for somatic pubertal growth.

  13. Secular trends in height in different states of India in relation to socioeconomic characteristics and dietary intakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamidi, Raja Sriswan; Kulkarni, Bharati; Singh, Abhishek

    2011-03-01

    Information on adult height and associated secular trends in relation to socioeconomic characteristics based on a nationally representative sample is not available from India. To assess the average adult height and secular trends in height in different states of India in relation to socioeconomic characteristics and dietary intakes according to data from the Third National Family Health Survey (NFHS 3). Average heights and associated secular trends were analyzed for each state and in relation to socioeconomic variables. Bivariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to examine the association of socioeconomic factors and consumption of animal-source foods with height. Data from anthropometric measurements were available for 69,245 men and 118,796 women in the age group from 20 to 49 years. The average heights of adult men and women were 165 and 152 cm, respectively, with wide variation among states. Overall, there was a modest secular increase in height (0.50 cm per decade in men and 0.22 cm per decade in women), with a negative secular trend in some of the states. There were striking regional differences in the average heights and the secular trends in height. Similarly, higher socioeconomic status was associated with greater height and a greater secular increase in height. Milk consumption had a positive association with height in men (r = 0.69, p increase in height has been modest in India in spite of impressive economic growth. Consumption patterns of milk in different states may be related to the regional differences in height.

  14. Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

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    Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

    2017-10-01

    Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric

  15. Secular trends in regional differences in nutritional biomarkers and self-reported dietary intakes among American adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988-1994 to 2009-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

    2018-01-10

    To understand the contribution of regional differentials in dietary exposures to regional gradients in health, we examined 20-year trends in the association of US census region of residence with nutritional biomarkers and dietary intakes of American adults. Observational. The biomarker and 24 h dietary recall data were from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) conducted during 1988-1994 and 1999-2010. The US census region was operationalized as Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Nutritional biomarker outcomes were serum folate, vitamins B6, B12, C, D and E, and carotenoids; dietary outcomes were intakes of nutrients, food groups and eating patterns. US adults, n>8000-40 000 for biomarkers and >43 000 for dietary outcomes. The interactions of survey time period and region were not significant for the examined biomarker and dietary outcomes, indicating similar secular trends among regions. The main effect of region was significant for all nutritional biomarkers except serum vitamin B6, most dietary micronutrients, food groups and eating patterns (P<0·001). The mean serum folate, vitamins B12, C and E, and all carotenoid (except lycopene) biomarker levels, and intakes of dietary fibre, vitamins A, E, C and B6, folate, K, Ca, Mg and Fe, fruits, vegetables and whole grains, were higher in the West and Northeast regions, relative to the South and Midwest regions. Overall, the regional gradients in dietary exposure, expressed objectively as biomarkers or as self-reported nutrient and food group intakes, paralleled trajectories reported for health outcomes and were remarkably persistent over time.

  16. Secular trends in menarcheal age in India-evidence from the Indian human development survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Kumar Pathak

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified. METHODS: We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15-49 years in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey. RESULTS: The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77 in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85 among women born prior to 1955-1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67 among women born during late 1985-1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955-1964 (95% CI: 14.89-15.11 to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63-12.56 during 1985-1989. CONCLUSION: The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women.

  17. Secular trends in the geologic record and the supercontinent cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Dwight C.

    2011-01-01

    Geologic secular trends are used to refine the timetable of supercontinent assembly, tenure, and breakup. The analysis rests on what is meant by the term supercontinent, which here is defined broadly as a grouping of formerly dispersed continents. To avoid the artificial pitfall of an all-or-nothing definition, quantitative measures of “supercontinentality” are presented: the number of continents, and the area of the largest continent, which both can be gleaned from global paleogeographic maps for the Phanerozoic. For the secular trends approach to be viable in the deep past when the very existence of supercontinents is debatable and reconstructions are fraught with problems, it must first be calibrated in the Phanerozoic against the well-constrained Pangea supercontinent cycle. The most informative geologic variables covering both the Phanerozoic and Precambrian are the abundances of passive margins and of detrital zircons. Both fluctuated with size of the largest continent during the Pangea supercontinent cycle and can be quantified back to the Neoarchean. The tenure of Pangea was a time represented in the rock record by few zircons and few passive margins. Thus, previously documented minima in the abundance of detrital zircons (and orogenic granites) during the Precambrian (Condie et al., 2009a, Gondwana Research 15, 228–242) now can be more confidently interpreted as marking the tenures of supercontinents. The occurrences of carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone-belt deformation events also appear to bear the imprint of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity. Together, these secular records are consistent with the following scenario. The Neoarchean continental assemblies of Superia and Sclavia broke up at ca. 2300 and ca. 2090 Ma, respectively. Some of their fragments collided to form Nuna by about 1750 Ma; Nuna then grew by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs during the Mesoproterozoic, and was involved in a series of collisions at ca. 1000 Ma

  18. A sensitivity analysis of secular trends in risk factors and mortality based on cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Andersen, P K; Osler, M

    1999-01-01

    Because of a "healthy responder effect," secular trends in mortality based on cohort studies may be biased if based on responders only. Because responders are selected on the basis of their health at study entry, subjects just entering a study are not comparable with subjects who have been...... this solution with data on trends in smoking prevalence and all-cause mortality based on a large Danish cohort study with 19 years of complete follow-up on responders and nonresponders. Secular trends in mortality based on the whole sample vs responders only illustrated that results based on responders were...... secular trend in mortality. By applying different assumptions regarding smoking habits among nonresponders, we explored the effect of the assumptions on the adjusted secular trend in mortality. We conclude that secular trends in mortality based on responders in a cohort study are likely to be biased...

  19. A PERSISTING SECULAR TREND FOR BODY MEASUREMENTS IN DUTCH CHILDREN - THE OOSTERWOLDE-II STUDY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GERVER, WJM; DEBRUIN, R; DRAYER, NM

    To investigate whether the secular trend for growth in Dutch children still exists, the Oosterwolde I study of 1980 was repeated in 1989. A persisting secular trend was visible for height while the z scores of body proportions show no change during the past 10 years, which suggests that there is no

  20. Secular Trends in Meal and Snack Patterns among Adolescents from 1999 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Nicole; Story, Mary; Eisenberg, Marla E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2016-02-01

    Linkages between snack patterns, diet, and obesity in adolescents likely depend on the consumption of main meals, how often snacks are prepared away from home, and whether energy-dense, nutrient-poor snack foods and sugary drinks are frequently consumed. Nutrition-based interventions need to be informed by an understanding of how secular changes in the contribution of snacks to dietary intake may be related to changes in meal frequency as well as how these trends differ by sociodemographic characteristics. To examine secular trends from 1999 to 2010 in meal and snack patterns among adolescents. A repeated cross-sectional design was used. Participants from Minneapolis/St Paul, MN, secondary schools completed classroom-administered surveys and food frequency questionnaires in 1999 (n=2,598) and 2010 (n=2,540). Weekly meal frequencies; number of snacks consumed on school and vacation/weekend days; frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home (≥3 times/week); and daily servings of energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drinks that are commonly consumed at snack occasions. Trends from 1999 to 2010 were examined using inverse probability weighting to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics in the two samples. Mean frequencies of breakfast and lunch increased modestly in the overall population (both P values snacks consumed on schools days (Psnacks prepared away from home, there was a secular decrease in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drink consumption (Psnack trends among adolescents suggests the need for targeted efforts to ensure public health messages reach low-income and ethnic/racial minority population subgroups most vulnerable to poor nutrition and the development of obesity. Copyright © 2016 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

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    Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

    2013-10-21

    In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

  2. Secular trends of body sizes in Korean children and adolescents: from 1965 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Soo Moon

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available An anthropometric survey is one of the most important approaches to use when evaluating the health status of children. Secular trends in body sizes, such as height, weight, head circumference, chest circumference, and body mass index showed significant changes over 40 years in Korea. A series of periodic surveys were conducted in 1967, 1975, 1985, 1997, and 2005 by the Korean Pediatric Society and Ministry of Health and Welfare. The quality of data from school health examinations and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey has improved, so we can use them now as resources for anthropometric analysis. The final height differences between 1965 and 1997 were 4.5 cm both in boys (168.9 cm in 1965; 173.4 cm in 1997 and girls (155.9 cm in 1965; 160.4 cm in 1997. The differences between 1997 and 2005 were 0.9 cm in boys (174.3cm in 2005 and 0.8 cm in girls (161.2 cm in 2005. There was no difference in final height measurements between 2005 and 2010. An increase in body size at earlier teen ages was pronounced during these decades compared to the previous generation; however, little change has been identified more recently. Body size has been increasing, and obesity has become more prevalent. Systems that gather data should be updated in order to cope with these secular trends. In an upcoming era of secular trends that would be in a slow transition, several surveys that include body measurements should be prepared to meet future needs.

  3. Secular Trends in the Physical Fitness of American Youth, Young Adults and Army Recruits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knapik, Joseph

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature and existing databases for information on secular trends in the physical fitness of young Americans and describes changes in fitness during Basic Combat Training (BCT...

  4. Longitudinal and secular trends in adolescent whole-grain consumption, 1999-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess-Champoux, Teri L; Larson, Nicole I; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne R; Hannan, Peter J; Story, Mary T

    2010-01-01

    The replacement of refined grains in the diet with whole grains may help prevent chronic disease and excess weight gain, but intakes in adolescents are often lower than recommended. This study aimed to examine demographic disparities and 5-y longitudinal and secular trends (1999-2004) in whole-grain intake among 2 cohorts of Minnesota adolescents. Whole-grain intake was examined among 996 adolescent males and 1222 adolescent females who were Project EAT (Eating Among Teens) participants in 1999 and 2004. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine demographic differences in whole-grain intake. Mixed linear regression models were used to estimate 1) longitudinal trends among 2 cohorts of adolescents during developmental transitions and 2) age-matched secular trends between the cohorts at middle adolescence. In 1999, 11% of adolescent males and 13% of adolescent females reported that they consumed more than one daily serving of whole grains. Whole-grain intake was lowest among youth of the Native American and white races and among youth of high socioeconomic status. During the transition from middle to late adolescence, whole-grain intake increased by a mean of 0.14 daily servings among adolescent males and 0.09 daily servings among adolescent females. No significant changes in whole-grain intake were shown among either sex during the transition from early to middle adolescence. Yeast breads, popcorn, and ready-to-eat breakfast cereals were major sources of whole grains in 1999 and 2004. Findings suggest the need to advance efforts that target improvements in the amount of whole-grain foods selected by adolescents.

  5. Secular trends of macrosomia in southeast China, 1994-2005

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    Lu Xinrong

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rate of macrosomia (birth weight≥4, 000 g increased over the past four decades in many parts of the world. Macrosomia is associated not only with higher risks of maternal and neonatal complications but also with health risks in adulthood. We examined trends in neonatal macrosomia and large-for-gestational-age (LGA births among singleton, live, term and postterm births (≥37 complete weeks' gestation in southeast China from 1994 to 2005 and explored possible causes of the temporal trends. Methods Data from Perinatal Health Care Surveillance System in 12 cities and counties in southeast China were analyzed for trends in birth weight, neonatal macrosomia and LGA from 1994 to 2005. A total of 594, 472 singleton live births were included. We conducted multiple logistic regression analyses to relate these trends to changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics. Results The rate of macrosomia rose from 6.00% in 1994 to 8.49% in 2000 and then levelled off to 7.83% in 2005. Similar trends were observed in mean birth weight. The incidence of LGA births increased continuously from 13.72% in 1994 to 18.08% in 2000, but the LGA rate remained relatively stable from 2002 to 2005. There was a decrease in gestational age and a significant increase in frequency of prelabor caesarean delivery from 1994 to 2005. In an adjusted multivariable model, the increase in LGA rate from 1994 to 2000 was associated with increasing net gestational weight gain, maternal age, maternal height and maternal education. But they didn't fully explain the increase. The trends of 2002-2005 LGA declined after adjusted for maternal and neonatal characteristics. Conclusions In southeast China, the incidence of macrosomia increased from 1994 to 2000 was mainly related to increasing net gestational weight gain. The incidence of macrosomia has levelled off in recent years partly due to increasing use of prelabor caesarean delivery and earlier delivery and partly

  6. Secular trends of macrosomia in southeast China, 1994-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The rate of macrosomia (birth weight≥4, 000 g) increased over the past four decades in many parts of the world. Macrosomia is associated not only with higher risks of maternal and neonatal complications but also with health risks in adulthood. We examined trends in neonatal macrosomia and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) births among singleton, live, term and postterm births (≥37 complete weeks' gestation) in southeast China from 1994 to 2005 and explored possible causes of the temporal trends. Methods Data from Perinatal Health Care Surveillance System in 12 cities and counties in southeast China were analyzed for trends in birth weight, neonatal macrosomia and LGA from 1994 to 2005. A total of 594, 472 singleton live births were included. We conducted multiple logistic regression analyses to relate these trends to changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics. Results The rate of macrosomia rose from 6.00% in 1994 to 8.49% in 2000 and then levelled off to 7.83% in 2005. Similar trends were observed in mean birth weight. The incidence of LGA births increased continuously from 13.72% in 1994 to 18.08% in 2000, but the LGA rate remained relatively stable from 2002 to 2005. There was a decrease in gestational age and a significant increase in frequency of prelabor caesarean delivery from 1994 to 2005. In an adjusted multivariable model, the increase in LGA rate from 1994 to 2000 was associated with increasing net gestational weight gain, maternal age, maternal height and maternal education. But they didn't fully explain the increase. The trends of 2002-2005 LGA declined after adjusted for maternal and neonatal characteristics. Conclusions In southeast China, the incidence of macrosomia increased from 1994 to 2000 was mainly related to increasing net gestational weight gain. The incidence of macrosomia has levelled off in recent years partly due to increasing use of prelabor caesarean delivery and earlier delivery and partly due to moderation of

  7. Effect of energy under-reporting on secular trends of dietary patterns in a mediterranean population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna N Funtikova

    Full Text Available Diet is an important factor in the prevention of chronic diseases. Analysis of secular trends of dietary patterns can be biased by energy under-reporting. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to analyse the impact of energy under-reporting on dietary patterns and secular trends in dietary patterns defined by cluster analysis.Two cross-sectional population-based surveys were conducted in Spain, in 2000 and 2005, with 3058 and 6352 participants, respectively, aged 25 to 74 years. Validated questionnaire was used to collect dietary data. Cluster analysis was run separately for all participants, plausible energy reporters (PER, and energy under-reporters (EUR to define dietary patterns.Three clusters, "healthy", "mixed" and "western", were identified for both surveys. The "mixed" cluster was the predominant cluster in both surveys. Excluding EUR reduced the proportion of the "mixed" cluster up to 6.40% in the 2000 survey; this caused secular trend increase in the prevalence of the "mixed" pattern. Cross-classification analysis of all participants and PER' data showed substantial agreement in cluster assignments: 68.7% in 2000 and 84.4% in 2005. Excluding EUR did not cause meaningful (≥ 15% changes in the "healthy" pattern. It provoked changes in consumption of some food groups in the "mixed" and "western" patterns: mainly decreases of unhealthy foods within the 2000 and increases of unhealthy foods within the 2005 surveys. Secular trend effects of EUR were similar to those within the 2005 survey. Excluding EUR reversed the direction of secular trends in consumption of several food groups in PER in the "mixed" and "western" patterns.EUR affected distribution of participants between dietary patterns within and between surveys, secular trends in food group consumption and amount of food consumed in all, but not in the "healthy" pattern. Our findings emphasize threats from energy under-reporting in dietary data analysis.

  8. Ten-Year Secular Trends in Youth Violence: Results From the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2003–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, Andrew C.; Patterson, Freda; Luna, Ingrid Y.; Hohl, Bernadette; Bauer, Katherine W.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Youth violence reduction is a public health priority, yet few studies have examined secular trends in violence among urban youth, who may be particularly vulnerable to numerous forms of violence. This study examines 10-year secular trends in the prevalence of violence-related behaviors among Philadelphia high school students. METHODS Repeated cross-sectional data were analyzed from 5 waves of the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) from 2003 to 2013. Sex-specific multivariate regression models were used to examine secular trends in multiple types of violence, accounting for age, race/ethnicity, and sampling strategy. RESULTS In 2013, the most prevalent violent behavior was physical fighting among boys (38.4%) and girls (32.7%). Among girls, the prevalence of sexual assault and suicide attempts declined between 2003 and 2013 (β = −0.13, p = .04 and β = −0.14, p = .007, respectively). Among boys, significant declines in carrying a weapon (β = −0.31, p violence stabilized or declined among Philadelphia youth during 2003–2013 time span, involvement in violence-related behaviors remains common among this population. Continued surveillance and evidence-based violence reduction strategies are needed to address violence among urban youth. PMID:28260239

  9. The National Veteran Sleep Disorder Study: Descriptive Epidemiology and Secular Trends, 2000–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Melannie; Ray, Meredith A.; Hébert, James R.; Youngstedt, Shawn D.; Zhang, Hongmei; Steck, Susan E.; Bogan, Richard K.; Burch, James B.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: A large proportion of individuals affected by sleep disorders are untreated and susceptible to accidents, injuries, long-term sequelae (e.g., risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, psychiatric disorders), and increased mortality risk. Few studies have examined the scope and magnitude of sleep disorder diagnoses in the United States (US) or factors influencing them. Veterans are particularly vulnerable to factors that elicit or exacerbate sleep disorders. Methods: This serial cross-sectional study characterized secular trends in diagnosed sleep disorders among veterans seeking care in US Veterans Health Administration facilities over an eleven-year span (FY2000–2010, n = 9,786,778). Electronic medical records from the national Veterans Administration Informatics and Computing Infrastructure database were accessed. Cases were defined using diagnostic codes specified by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. Age-adjusted annual prevalence was summarized by sex, race, combat exposure, body mass index, and comorbid diagnoses (cardiovascular disease, cancer, mental disorders). Results: Sleep apnea (47%) and insomnia (26%) were the most common diagnoses among patients with any sleep disorder. There was a six-fold relative increase in total sleep disorder prevalence over the study period. Posttraumatic stress disorder, which tripled over the same time period, was associated with the highest prevalence of sleep disorders (16%) among the comorbid conditions evaluated. Conclusions: The results indicate a growing need for integration of sleep disorder management with patient care and health care planning among US veterans. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1331. Citation: Alexander M, Ray MA, Hébert JR, Youngstedt SD, Zhang H, Steck SE, Bogan RK, Burch JB. The National Veteran Sleep Disorder Study: descriptive epidemiology and secular trends, 2000–2010. SLEEP 2016;39(7):1399–1410. PMID:27091538

  10. 3D Scanning of Dutch Military: Secular Trends in PCA for 18,000 Soldiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haar, F.B. ter; Reulink, H.G.B.; Daanen, H.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Netherlands Military Forces started 3D whole body scanning of their recruits in the year 2003. 1D-body dimensions are derived from the scans to supply the best fitting size without human involvement. In order to investigate secular trends in body dimensions, the dataset of 3D scans was cleaned

  11. Secular trends in opioid prescribing in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pezalla EJ

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Edmund J Pezalla,1 David Rosen,2 Jennifer G Erensen,2 J David Haddox,2,3 Tracy J Mayne2 1Bioconsult, LLC, Wethersfield, 2Purdue Pharma L.P., Stamford, CT, 3Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: Opioid abuse and misuse in the USA is a public health crisis. The use of prescription opioid analgesics increased substantially from 2002 through 2010, then plateaued and began to decrease in 2011. This study examined prescriptions of branded and generic immediate- and extended-release opioid analgesics from 1992 to 2016. This was juxtaposed against state and federal policies designed to decrease overutilization and abuse, as well as the launch of new opioid products, including opioids with abuse-deterrent properties (OADPs. The data indicate that these health policies, including the utilization and reimbursement of OADPs, have coincided with decreased opioid utilization. The hypothesis that OADPs will paradoxically increase opioid prescribing is not supported. Keywords: OADP, prescription, utilization trends, legislation, opioids

  12. Secular trends in monthly heating and cooling demands in Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvitan, Lidija; Sokol Jurković, Renata

    2016-08-01

    This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices.

  13. Secular trends in body height in Balkan populations from 1945 to 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarajlić, Nermin; Resić, Emina; Gradaščević, Anisa; Salihbegović, Adis; Balažic, Jože; Zupanc, Tomaž

    2014-11-14

    The aim of this study was to look for any secular trend in the stature of Balkan populations from the time of World War II (1939-1945) to the Balkans War (1991-1995). The research was based on the examination of exhumed skeletons of 202 men killed in World War II in the area of the Republic of Slovenia, and 243 men killed in the Bosnian War in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The length measurements of the right and left humerus, femur, tibia and fibula were taken. Since the results revealed no significant differences and the left-sided bones were more complete and recurrent in the sample, the bones of the left side were used in the analysis. Since the increase in height depends mostly on the increase in length of the long bones, with an average absolute change of about 0.28 cm for humerus, 0.55 cm for femur, 0.49 cm for tibia and 0.20 cm for fibula per decade in our case, these results suggest a significant increase of the height of the Balkans population. The difference of the sum of the average femur and tibia length for the study period was 4.13 cm. Recalculated average length increase of the sum length of femur and tibia per decade was 0.88 cm for the left side. Our study revealed that there was a trend towards increased long bone lengths, at least in the male population analyzed.

  14. Secular trends in childhood obesity in Denmark during 50 years in relation to economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bua, Jenny; Olsen, Lina W; Sørensen, Thorkild I A

    2007-04-01

    Our aim was to examine whether secular trends in childhood overweight and obesity during five decades could be explained by economic growth. Annual measurements of height and weight were available for all children born between 1930 and 1983 attending primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality: 165,389 boys and 163,609 girls from the age of 7 through 13 years. After computerization, we calculated BMI (kg/m2) and estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity, according to international age- and gender-specific criteria, by year of birth and of measurement, and separately by each age group and gender. Economic growth was indicated by the Gross National Product and the overall consumption per capita, adjusted for inflation. The prevalence of overweight occurred in phases: an increase from 1930 until the 1950s, followed by a plateau period between the 1950s and the 1960s and a steep increase thereafter. This pattern was apparent across all age groups and in both genders. Obesity trends showed a similar phase pattern; the prevalence remained relatively stable from 1930 until the 1940s, increased until the mid-1950s, followed by a plateau until 1965, and thereafter a second steep increase. Obesity trends were similar among boys across all age groups, although only among girls from 11 to 13 years of age. In both genders, increments were most pronounced in the upper BMI percentiles. After stagnation until 1947, the economic growth indicators showed a steady increase; i.e., after the first increase started in overweight and obesity, whether analyzed by year of birth or year of measurement, there were no indications of phases in the rise thereafter. Prevalence of overweight and obesity among Danish children rose in phases, which were not paralleled by trends in economic growth. The macroeconomic growth indicators seem inappropriate as proxies for the environmental exposures that have elicited the obesity epidemic.

  15. Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Detlef

    2017-04-01

    Background: In a recent Monte Carlo simulation, the clustering of body height of Swiss military conscripts within a spatial network with characteristic features of the natural Swiss geography was investigated. In this study I examined the effect of migration of tall individuals into network hubs on the dynamics of body height within the whole spatial network. The aim of this study was to simulate height trends. Material and methods: Three networks were used for modeling, a regular rectangular fishing net like network, a real world example based on the geographic map of Switzerland, and a random network. All networks contained between 144 and 148 districts and between 265-307 road connections. Around 100,000 agents were initially released with average height of 170 cm, and height standard deviation of 6.5 cm. The simulation was started with the a priori assumption that height variation within a district is limited and also depends on height of neighboring districts (community effect on height). In addition to a neighborhood influence factor, which simulates a community effect, body height dependent migration of conscripts between adjacent districts in each Monte Carlo simulation was used to re-calculate next generation body heights. In order to determine the direction of migration for taller individuals, various centrality measures for the evaluation of district importance within the spatial network were applied. Taller individuals were favored to migrate more into network hubs, backward migration using the same number of individuals was random, not biased towards body height. Network hubs were defined by the importance of a district within the spatial network. The importance of a district was evaluated by various centrality measures. In the null model there were no road connections, height information could not be delivered between the districts. Results: Due to the favored migration of tall individuals into network hubs, average body height of the hubs, and later

  16. Secular trends on traditional ecological knowledge: An analysis of different domains of knowledge among Tsimane’ men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-García, Victoria; Luz, Ana C.; Gueze, Maximilien; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Macía, Manuel J.; Orta-Martínez, Martí; Pino, Joan

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research provides contradictory evidence of the loss of traditional ecological knowledge across societies. Researchers have argued that culture, methodological differences, and site-specific conditions are responsible for such contradictory evidences. We advance and test a third explanation: the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge systems. Specifically, we test whether different domains of traditional ecological knowledge experience different secular changes and analyze trends in the context of other changes in livelihoods. We use data collected among 651 Tsimane’ men (Bolivian Amazon). Our findings indicate that different domains of knowledge follow different secular trends. Among the domains of knowledge analyzed, medicinal and wild edible knowledge appear as the most vulnerable; canoe building and firewood knowledge seem to remain constant across generations; whereas house building knowledge seems to experience a slight secular increase. Our analysis reflects on the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge, highlighting how changes in this knowledge system respond to the particular needs of a society in a given point of time. PMID:24518817

  17. Secular trends on traditional ecological knowledge: An analysis of different domains of knowledge among Tsimane' men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-García, Victoria; Luz, Ana C; Gueze, Maximilien; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Macía, Manuel J; Orta-Martínez, Martí; Pino, Joan

    2013-10-01

    Empirical research provides contradictory evidence of the loss of traditional ecological knowledge across societies. Researchers have argued that culture, methodological differences, and site-specific conditions are responsible for such contradictory evidences. We advance and test a third explanation: the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge systems. Specifically, we test whether different domains of traditional ecological knowledge experience different secular changes and analyze trends in the context of other changes in livelihoods. We use data collected among 651 Tsimane' men (Bolivian Amazon). Our findings indicate that different domains of knowledge follow different secular trends. Among the domains of knowledge analyzed, medicinal and wild edible knowledge appear as the most vulnerable; canoe building and firewood knowledge seem to remain constant across generations; whereas house building knowledge seems to experience a slight secular increase. Our analysis reflects on the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge, highlighting how changes in this knowledge system respond to the particular needs of a society in a given point of time.

  18. Secular trend for stature in adult male Yucatec Maya to 1968.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, J M

    1982-06-01

    Statures for 64 adult male Yucatec Maya (18 + years old, sons of campesinos) were measured in 1968 and compared with mean statures presented in results for previous studies. There were no significant changes in mean stature since 1895. If the sample is divided into 5-year age groups, no secular trend is evident. Using osteological information from as early as the Late Preclassic, stature of adult Maya males has decreased 119 mm in a little more than 20 centuries (-0.06 cm/decade). Comparing the results with measurements from other Mesoamerican groups, only one--the Otomí--show evidence of significant secular change. It is possible that modern economic development schemes in Mesoamerica are too recent or ineffective to have had an effect on stature.

  19. 20-year trends in Filipino women's weight reflect substantial secular and age effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adair, Linda S; Gultiano, Socorro; Suchindran, Chiriyath

    2011-04-01

    Increasing obesity in low- and middle-income countries is well documented in cross-sectional studies. However, few longitudinal studies identify factors that influence individual weight gain patterns over time in relation to the major social and economic changes that now characterize these settings. This study uses data from adult Filipino women participating in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey from 1983 to 2005. A sample of 3005 women contributed 1-8 observations each. Longitudinal mixed effects models identified how age and secular weight trends related to underlying effects of urbanization and changing household socioeconomic status (SES) and to proximate individual effects of reproductive history, diet, and occupational physical activity. The 23-y secular trend in weight amounted to nearly 10 kg. Younger women gained more weight than older women (12.4 kg in those 35 y). Periods of more rapid weight gain corresponded to periods of rapid increase in SES and urbanization. Weight was positively related to energy intake, percentage of calories from protein, and more sedentary occupations, but negatively related to months pregnant and lactating and postmenopausal status. These effects all varied with age and over time. The trends contributed to a 6-fold increase in prevalence of overweight and an increasing number of women who have or are likely to develop obesity-related metabolic diseases. The trends are highly relevant for health policy and preventive health measures in the Philippines and other countries now facing the dual burden of over- and undernutrition.

  20. 20-Year Trends in Filipino Women’s Weight Reflect Substantial Secular and Age Effects12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adair, Linda S.; Gultiano, Socorro; Suchindran, Chiriyath

    2011-01-01

    Increasing obesity in low- and middle-income countries is well documented in cross-sectional studies. However, few longitudinal studies identify factors that influence individual weight gain patterns over time in relation to the major social and economic changes that now characterize these settings. This study uses data from adult Filipino women participating in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey from 1983 to 2005. A sample of 3005 women contributed 1–8 observations each. Longitudinal mixed effects models identified how age and secular weight trends related to underlying effects of urbanization and changing household socioeconomic status (SES) and to proximate individual effects of reproductive history, diet, and occupational physical activity. The 23-y secular trend in weight amounted to nearly 10 kg. Younger women gained more weight than older women (12.4 kg in those 35 y). Periods of more rapid weight gain corresponded to periods of rapid increase in SES and urbanization. Weight was positively related to energy intake, percentage of calories from protein, and more sedentary occupations, but negatively related to months pregnant and lactating and postmenopausal status. These effects all varied with age and over time. The trends contributed to a 6-fold increase in prevalence of overweight and an increasing number of women who have or are likely to develop obesity-related metabolic diseases. The trends are highly relevant for health policy and preventive health measures in the Philippines and other countries now facing the dual burden of over- and undernutrition. PMID:21325475

  1. Secular trends in the European male facial skull from the Migration Period to the present: a cephalometric study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonke, Erwin; Prossinger, Hermann; Bookstein, Fred L; Schaefer, Katrin; Bernhard, Markus; Freudenthaler, Josef W

    2008-12-01

    Secular trends in the facial skull over three Central European samples spanning more than 13 centuries were examined. Data were 43 conventional cephalometric landmark points for samples dating from 680 to 830 AD (29 male Avars), from the mid-19th century (49 adult Hapsburg Monarchy males), and from the 20th century (54 living Austrian young adult males). Analyses by standard methods of geometric morphometrics demonstrated shape differences by data and by size, with a strong interaction of these with sample, in that group mean differences were different for small and large individuals (allometry is different from period to period). The oldest sample, from the Migration Period, exhibited allometric features that may possibly be Turkic. There are implications for the orthodontist interested in growth trends or growth predictions in ethnically mixed patient samples.

  2. [Analysis of secular trends in proportion of students with poor visual acuity and the associated factors according to government statistics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Koji; Yokoyama, Tsuranu

    2014-02-01

    Statistics obtained by the Japanese government were analyzed with the aim of elucidating the recent secular trends in proportion of students with poor visual acuity and the associated factors. Data on the proportion of students with poor visual acuity were collected from the reports of the School Health Examination Surveys conducted from 1979 to 2012, and were graphically analyzed to detect a secular trend. We collected prefecture-level data regarding the visual acuity, body height, study time, sleeping duration, video-gaming duration, and duration of exposure to sunshine of sixth-grade students of elementary schools in all 47 prefectures in Japan. The relationship between poor visual acuity and other factors was explored by performing multiple regression analysis to identify the important predictors of poor visual acuity. A temporary retarding phase in the increasing tendency, as a halt in the growing tendency in terms of height, was observed in a proportion of students with poor visual acuity. Poor visual acuity was negatively correlated with duration of exposure to sunshine and was positively correlated with body height, but was only slightly correlated with study time and video-gaming duration. Because myopia is incriminated as the main cause of poor visual acuity, these results suggest that myopia progression would be influenced by the circumstances of exposure to light.

  3. Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

    2017-06-28

    Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

  4. Secular trend in blood lead levels in a cohort of Mexico City children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothenberg, S J; Schnaas, L; Perroni, E; Hernández, R M; Karchmer, S

    1998-01-01

    We determined the secular trend in blood lead levels in a cohort of 104 children born in Mexico City between 1987 and 1993. We grouped children by the calendar year in which they reached 6 mo of age and measured blood lead levels every 6 mo until they attained 36 mo of age. The overall geometric mean blood lead level was 9.6 microg/dl (range = 1.5-59.5 microg/dl). A repeated measures analysis of variance revealed a highly significant linear trend in blood lead level with year (p pottery significantly elevated blood lead levels (p = .028). The downward trend in blood lead levels during the time period of study corresponded to the reduction in various sources of lead exposure.

  5. The National Veteran Sleep Disorder Study: Descriptive Epidemiology and Secular Trends, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Melannie; Ray, Meredith A; Hébert, James R; Youngstedt, Shawn D; Zhang, Hongmei; Steck, Susan E; Bogan, Richard K; Burch, James B

    2016-07-01

    A large proportion of individuals affected by sleep disorders are untreated and susceptible to accidents, injuries, long-term sequelae (e.g., risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, psychiatric disorders), and increased mortality risk. Few studies have examined the scope and magnitude of sleep disorder diagnoses in the United States (US) or factors influencing them. Veterans are particularly vulnerable to factors that elicit or exacerbate sleep disorders. This serial cross-sectional study characterized secular trends in diagnosed sleep disorders among veterans seeking care in US Veterans Health Administration facilities over an eleven-year span (FY2000-2010, n = 9,786,778). Electronic medical records from the national Veterans Administration Informatics and Computing Infrastructure database were accessed. Cases were defined using diagnostic codes specified by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. Age-adjusted annual prevalence was summarized by sex, race, combat exposure, body mass index, and comorbid diagnoses (cardiovascular disease, cancer, mental disorders). Sleep apnea (47%) and insomnia (26%) were the most common diagnoses among patients with any sleep disorder. There was a six-fold relative increase in total sleep disorder prevalence over the study period. Posttraumatic stress disorder, which tripled over the same time period, was associated with the highest prevalence of sleep disorders (16%) among the comorbid conditions evaluated. The results indicate a growing need for integration of sleep disorder management with patient care and health care planning among US veterans. A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1331. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  6. Secular trend in the incidence of hip fracture in Catalonia, Spain, 2003-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueyo-Sánchez, Maria-Jesús; Larrosa, Marta; Suris, Xavier; Casado, Enrique; Auleda, Jaume; Fusté, Josep; Ortún, Vicente

    2017-03-01

    to describe the secular trend and seasonal variation in the incidence of hip fracture (HF) over 12 years (2003-2014) in Catalonia, the community with the highest incidence of HF in Spain. data about age, gender, type of fracture and month of hospitalisation among patients aged 65 years and older discharged with a diagnosis of HF were collected. Crude and age-standardised annual incidence rate were reckoned. To analyse HF trend, the age/sex-adjusted average annual change in incidence (incidence rate ratio, IRR) was calculated. we identified 100,110 HF in the period, with an increase of 16.9% (women 13.4%; men 28.4%). Trochanteric fractures were the most frequent (55.8%). The crude incidence rate (per 100,000 population) decreased from 677.2 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 662.0-692.7) to 657.6 (95% CI 644.0-671.5). The standardised incidence rate decreased from 754.0 (95% CI 738.6-769.3) to 641.5 (95% CI 627.7-655.3), with a sharp decrease in women (-16.8%) while it was stable in men. The incidence by type of fracture was stable. The trend throughout the period showed a slight decrease with IRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99; P = 0.025). The incidence was stable in the oldest group (+85 years), while there was a downward trend in the younger groups. A significant seasonal pattern was observed, with more cases in winter and less in summer (spring as reference). the secular trend reveals a decreasing incidence of HF although the absolute number has increased in the last 12 years in Catalonia. Trochanteric fractures were the most prevalent and a seasonal pattern was observed, with more cases in winter.

  7. Secular Weddings in Canada: An Examination of a Humanist Response to the Evolution of Marriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lloyd Hawkeye Robertson

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing societal secularization, little research has been undertaken on the needs of non-religious people to engage in marriage ceremony or the means by which such needs are met. Using a jurisdictional scan, focus groups, and an on-line survey, this exploratory survey examines the provision for and use of secular legal marriage in Canada’s regions from a humanist perspective. It is postulated that marriage ceremonies have persisted among the non-religious due to needs to authenticate or recognize transitional changes to the self, but these needs have been met through ad hoc strategies as opposed to a uniform demand for humanist services. Implications for humanist organizations are discussed along with recommendations for further research.

  8. Secular trends in habitual physical activities of Mozambican children and adolescents from Maputo City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Maia, José A R; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Q F; Daca, Timóteo; Madeira, Aspacia; Damasceno, Albertino; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Prista, António

    2014-10-21

    Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight-15 years), were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012). Habitual physical activity (PA) was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992-1999 and 1992-2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation. Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012) was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992-1999 and 1992-2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities.

  9. Secular Trends in Habitual Physical Activities of Mozambican Children and Adolescents from Maputo City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Karina dos Santos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight–15 years, were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012. Habitual physical activity (PA was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation. Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012 was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities.

  10. Secular trend in height in Al Ain-United Arab Emirates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynouna, Latifa Mohammad; Revel, Anthony D; Nagelkerke, Nico J D; Jaber, Tariq M; Omar, Aziza O; Ahmed, Nader M; Naziruldeen, Mohammad K; Al Sayed, Mamdouh F; Nour, Fuad A; Abdouni, Sameh

    2009-12-01

    Correlation between cycles in human stature and those in economic variables is well established. A recent review of international trends in this area provided information from most parts of the world but none on Arabs in the Middle East or more specifically the gulf region. The United Arab Emirates experienced a transformation in economic and social life followed the discovery of oil in the late 1960s and the wealth that it generated. No data is available on human growth at this period of time because its population never had health services prior to the 1970s. A study on conventional cardiovascular risk factors in 2004-2005 included 817 randomly selected national adults (> or =18 years) from both genders. The relationship between height and age in this study showed both men and women have increased in height with time demonstrating the secular change in height most likely a result of changing socioeconomic factors.

  11. Growth variation, final height and secular trend. Proceedings of the 17th Aschauer Soiree, 7th November 2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanussen, M.; Godina, E.; Rühli, F.J.; Blaha, P.; Boldsen, J.L.; Buuren, S. van; MacIntyre, M.; Aßmann, C.; Ghosh, A.; Stefano, G.F. de; Sonkin, V.D.; Tresguerres, J.A.F.; Meigen, C.; Scheffler, C.; Geiger, C.; Lieberman, L.S.

    2010-01-01

    Growth and body height have always been topics interesting to the public. In particular, the stupendous increase of some 15-19. cm in final adult height during the last 150 years in most European countries (the " secular trend" ), the concomitant changes in body and head proportions, the tendency

  12. Components of adult height and height loss. Secular trend and effects of aging in women in the DOM project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leer, E M; van Noord, P.A.H.; Seidell, J C

    Between 1984 and 1987, adult height, sitting height, arm span, and iliac crest height were measured in 13,386 women of the DOM project. Combined effects of secular trends between cohorts born in 1911 to 1945 and aging between ages 40 to 74 years showed a decrease in stature of 4.9 +/- 0.3 cm (mean

  13. Blood lead secular trend in a cohort of children in Mexico City. II. 1990-1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothenberg, S J; Schnaas, L; Perroni, E; Hernández, R M; Ortega, J F

    2000-01-01

    The authors determined the secular trend in blood lead levels in a cohort of 91 children born in Mexico City between 1987 and the beginning of 1993. The authors grouped children by calendar year in which they reached 36 mo of age (i.e., 1990-1995), and their blood lead levels were measured every 6 mo during a 66-mo period. The overall geometric mean blood lead level was 8.6 microg/dl (range = 1.0-61.0 microg/dl). A repeated measures analysis of variance revealed a significant downward linear trend in blood lead levels by year (p linear age effect (p pottery significantly elevated blood lead levels (p = .006), and the effect magnified as age increased (Age x Pottery Interaction [p = .014]). Although the overall downward trend in blood lead levels during the time period described corresponded to a reduction in various sources of lead exposure, there was no alteration in production, distribution, or use of leaded pottery. Currently, use of lead-glazed ceramic pottery is one of the most profound sources of lead exposure in the Mexican population.

  14. Secular trends in overweight and obesity among Icelandic adolescents: do parental education levels and family structure play a part?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsdóttir, Sigridur Þ; Kristjánsson, Álfgeir l; Sigfúsdóttir, Inga D; Garber, Carol E; Allegrante, John P

    2013-06-01

    To investigate whether the secular trend in the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland varied by levels of parental education and family structure. Odds ratios were calculated from repeated population-based, cross-sectional surveys comprising cohorts of 16- to 20-year-old Icelandic adolescents attending junior colleges in 1992 (n=4,922), 2004 (n=11,031), 2007 (n=11,229), and 2010 (n=11,388). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from self-reported weight and height and categorised as normal weight or overweight and obese, and examined in relation to parental education level and family structure. The odds of being overweight increased by 2.62 and 1.71 for boys and girls respectively over each of the survey time points. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased across all three subgroups (low, medium, and high) of parental education level. The probability of overweight across all years were consistently the highest for youths with parents in the low-education category followed by middle-educated and high-educated parental background (pobesity trends between respondents' parental education backgrounds increased over time and was generally explained more by the fathers' education than by the mothers' education (pobesity in our data. Differences in parental levels of education are associated with accelerating trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland.

  15. Secular trends in fracture incidence in the United Kingdom between 1990 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, R.Y.; Wyers, C.E.; Curtis, E.M.; Geusens, P.P.M.M.; van den Bergh, J.P.W; de Vries, F.; Cooper, C.; van Staa, T.P.; Harvey, N.C.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction There is increasing evidence of secular changes in age- and sex- adjusted fracture incidence globally. Such observations broadly suggest decreasing rates in developed countries and increasing rates in transitioning populations. Since altered fracture rates have major implications for healthcare provision and planning, we investigated secular changes to age- and sex-adjusted fracture risk amongst the UK population aged 50 years or above from 1990 till 2012. Methods We undertook a retrospective observational study using the Clinical Practice Research Data link (CPRD), which contains the health records of 6.9% of the UK population. Site-specific fracture incidence was calculated by calendar year for men and women separately, with fracture type categorised according to ICD-9 classification. Linear regression analysis was used to calculate mean annualised change in absolute incidence. For presentational purposes, mean rates in the first 5 years and last 5 years of the period were calculated. Results Overall fracture incidence was unchanged in both women and men from 1990 to 2012. The incidence of hip fracture remained stable amongst women (1990-1994: 33.8 per 10,000 py; 2008-2012: 33.5 per 10,000 py; p trend annualised change in incidence=0.80), but rose in men across the same period (10.8 to 13.4 per 10,000py; p=0.002). Clinical vertebral fractures became more common in women (8.9 to 11.8 per 10,000py; p=0.005) but remained comparable in men (4.6 to 5.9 per 10,000 py; p=0.72). Similarly frequency of radius/ulna fractures did not change in men (9.6 to 9.6 per 10,000py; p=0.25), but, in contrast, became less frequent in women (50.4 to 41.2 per 10,000py; p=0.001). Secular trends amongst fractures of the carpus, scapula, humerus, foot, pelvis, skull, clavicle, ankle, patella and ribs varied according to fracture site and sex. Conclusion Although overall sex-specific fracture incidence in the UK population 50 years or over appears to have remained stable over

  16. [The secular trend in body height and weight in the adult population in the Czech republic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopecký, Miroslav; Kikalová, Kateřina; Charamza, Jiří

    Secular changes in anthropometric parameters reflect the effect of socio-economic conditions in interaction with other factors on individuals in the course of 100-200 years. The main aim of the research was to determine the average body height and weight for the current adult population of men 19 to 94 years old and women 19 to 86 years old in the Czech Republic, and to compare the average values ​​of body height and weight of the monitored group with the reference values ​​for the adult population observed in our country from 1895 to 2001.Body height and weight were measured with standard anthropometry in 973 men aged 19-94 years and 2,606 women aged 19-86 years. The research was carried out from 2013 to 2015. Statistical tests: t-test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The average body weight and height of the current adult male is 178.58 cm and 80.86 kg, and of adult female 165.99 cm and 65.67 kg. When compared to men, women show significantly lower average height by 12.59 cm and lower weight by 15.19 kg. The results show that men today are about 10.61 cm higher and weigh 9.01 kilograms more than men in 1895. Todays women are about 9.43 centimeters taller, but weigh 0,58 kg less than women of the same age in 1895.Comparison of results from 1895 to 2015 shows that at present there is likely stagnation or decline in the positive secular trend in body height among men and women. The weight of men is increasing while there is stagnation in the body weight of women.

  17. SECULAR TRENDS AND LATITUDE GRADIENTS IN SEX RATIOS AT BIRTH IN THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grech

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births, which is anticipated to approximate 0.515, has been shown to exhibit latitude gradients and secular trends. Methods: Annual national data for male and female live births for the 15 countries that comprise the former Soviet Union were obtained from the World Health Organisation for the period 1980–2009 (115,167,569 total live births and analysed with contingency tables. Spearman correlation was also carried out to compare percentage annual gross domestic product growth (GDP% – downloaded from the World Bank and M/F. In this context, GDP% is used as a measure for economic hardship or wellbeing within the populace. Results: There have been overall highly significant secular increases in M/F (p < 0.0001 in the countries and regions investigated. M/F is significantly lower in the three more northern regions (Russian Federation, Baltic States and Central Asia. M/F 0.51324, 0.51335-0.51314 than the two more southern regions (Southern Caucasus and Eastern Europe. M/F 0.51654, 0.51635-0.51672. There was a male excess of 113,818 live births.There was a significant positive correlation between GDP% and M/F for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. There was a significant negative correlation in Estonia. Conclusion: Previous studies have shown that improving socioeconomic conditions increase M/F, and the converse has also been demonstrated. This is a potential influence in this geographical area since this region has relatively recently emerged from communist rule and experienced an overall economic upturn, but is only partially supported using GDP%. Another factor may be the selective termination of female pregnancies. The latitude gradient parallels that of neighbouring Europe but no theory has been put forward to convincingly explain this finding to date.

  18. Secular trends are associated with the demographic and epidemiologic transitions in an indigenous community in Oaxaca, Southern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malina, Robert M; Little, Bertis B; Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia

    2018-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that secular changes in body size and age at menarche are related to the demographic and epidemiologic transitions in an indigenous community in Oaxaca, southern Mexico. Data were derived from surveys of a Zapotec-speaking community conducted between 1968 and 2000. Segmented linear regressions of height, weight, BMI and recalled age at menarche on year of birth in cohorts of adults born before and after the demographic transition were used to evaluate secular changes. Corresponding comparisons of body size (MANCOVA controlling for age) and age at menarche (status quo, probit analysis) were done for samples of children and adolescents born before and after the epidemiological transition. Height and weight increased in adults born after the demographic transition (mid-1950s), and especially in children and adolescents born after the epidemiological transition (mid-1980s). Age at menarche also decreased significantly in women born after the demographic transition, but at a more rapid estimated rate in adolescents born after the epidemiological transition. Secular gains in body weight were proportional to those for height among children and adolescents, but adults, males more so than females, gained proportionally more weight. The secular trend in height in adults of both sexes was associated with the decade of the demographic transition in the mid-1950s. Significant secular gains in size attained and age at menarche occurred in children and youth born after the epidemiologic transition which likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions since the mid-1980s. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

    2017-10-01

    Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. Secular trends of HPV genotypes in invasive cervical cancer in Cali, Colombia 1950-1999.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Gloria Ines; Bravo, Luis Eduardo; Hernandez-Suarez, Gustavo; Tous, Sara; Alemany, Laia; de Sanjose, Silvia; Bosch, F Xavier; Muñoz, Nubia

    2016-02-01

    Aim To estimate relative contribution and time trends of HPV types in cervical cancer in Cali, Colombia over a 50 years' period. Paraffin blocks of 736 cervical cancer histological confirmed cases were retrieved from the pathology laboratory at Hospital Universitario del Valle (Cali, Colombia) and HPV genotyped using SPF10-PCR/DEIA/LiPA25 (version 1) assay. Marginal effect of age and year of diagnosis in secular trends of HPV type prevalence among HPV+ cases were assessed by robust Poisson regression analysis. 64.7% (95%CI: 59.9-69.2) of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) were attributed to HPV 16 and 18, 78.2% (95%CI: 74-82) to HPV 16, 18, 31, 33 and 45 and 84.8% (95%CI: 81-88.1) to HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 while ninety-three percent of adenocarcinomas (ADCs) were attributed to HPV 16, 18 and 45 only. The prevalence of specific HPV types did not change over the 50-year period. A significant downward trend of prevalence ratios of HPV16 (​P=0.017) and α7 but HPV 18 (i.e., HPV 39, 45, 68, 70, ​P=0.024) with increasing age at diagnosis was observed. In contrast, the prevalence ratio to other HPV genotypes of α9 but HPV 16 genotypes (i.e., HPV 31, 33, 35, 52, 58, 67, ​P=0.002) increased with increasing age at diagnosis. No changes were observed in the relative contribution of HPV types in cervical cancer in Cali, Colombia during the 50 years. In this population, an HPV vaccine including the HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 genotypes may have the potential to prevent ∼85% and 93% of SCC and ADC cases respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Secular trends in sports: participation and attitudes among adolescents in Sweden from 1974 to 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerståhl, M; Barnekow-Bergkvist, M; Hedberg, G; Jansson, E

    2003-05-01

    To study the secular trend (time changes) in participation in leisure-time sports activities and in attitudes towards sports activities and physical education in a representative sample of Swedish adolescents between 1974 and 1995. A questionnaire was distributed to 16-y-old girls and boys (n = 395 in 1974, n = 542 in 1995) to assess participation in leisure-time sports activity, attitudes towards sports activities and attitudes towards physical education at school. Height and weight were measured and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. Compared with 1974, more subjects in 1995 answered that they were engaged in leisure-time sports activities, and that they were members of sports clubs. BMI increased from 1974 to 1995. By 1995, adolescents participated in and had become more interested in individual sports activities, including keep-fit activities (e.g. strength training and aerobics) compared with 1974. A gender difference in the feeling of anxiety towards physical education, with more girls experiencing it, appeared in 1995, but not in 1974. Although more adolescents participated in leisure-time sports activity in 1995 than in 1974, the lifestyle of adolescents between sports training sessions may have become more sedentary. This is negative in a health perspective, since the benefits of physical activity on health are largely correlated to the total energy expenditure. However, the increased interest in keep-fit activities is important, since these activities have the potential to be continued into adulthood.

  2. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Due Pernille

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871 from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not

  3. Secular trends and evaluation of complex interventions: the rising tide phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Fu; Hemming, Karla; Stevens, Andrew J; Lilford, Richard J

    2016-05-01

    Evaluations of service delivery interventions with contemporaneous controls often yield null results, even when the intervention appeared promising in advance. There can be many reasons for null results. In this paper we introduce the concept of a 'rising tide' phenomenon being a possible explanation of null results. We note that evaluations of service delivery interventions often occur when awareness of the problems they intend to address is already heightened, and pressure to tackle them is mounting throughout a health system. An evaluation may therefore take place in a setting where the system as a whole is improving - where there is a pronounced temporal trend or a 'rising tide causing all vessels to rise'. As a consequence, control sites in an intervention study will improve. This reduces the difference between intervention and control sites and predisposes the study to a null result, leading to the conclusion that the intervention has no effect. We discuss how a rising tide may be distinguished from other causes of improvement in both control and intervention groups, and give examples where the rising tide provides a convincing explanation of such a finding. We offer recommendations for interpretation of research findings where improvements in the intervention group are matched by improvements in the control group. Understanding the rising tide phenomenon is important for a more nuanced interpretation of null results arising in the context of system-wide improvement. Recognition that a rising tide may have predisposed to a null result in one health system cautions against generalising the result to another health system where strong secular trends are absent. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  4. Secular trends of height, weight and BMI in young adult Brazilian military students in the 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, J A; Avila, R A; Gonçalves, E M; Barbeta, V J O; Morcillo, A M; Guerra-Junior, G

    2013-01-01

    Secular trends of increasing weight and height over past centuries are well documented in developed countries. However, these data are still scarce in developing countries such as Brazil. To verify the secular trends of height, weight and body mass index (BMI) of military students from Brazilian Army schools who were born between the 1920s and 1990s. A retrospective study was performed, which included a survey of data from the files of two Army schools. The sample was composed of subjects aged between 18-20 years old. The study analysed 2169 heights and 1741 weights and BMIs. During the evaluation period, height increased 7.3 cm, weight 9.8 kg and BMI 1.8 kg/m(2). The most significant gains were observed in subjects born from the 1920s to the 1940s and the 1960s to the 1970s. Secular trends of growth in military students born in the 20th century were positive in Brazil, although increases were not constant decade-by-decade.

  5. Mortality due to acute myocardial infarction in China from 1987 to 2014: Secular trends and age-period-cohort effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jie; Liu, Xin; Sun, Yang

    2017-01-15

    In contrast with most developed countries, mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) continues to rise in China. We examined secular trends and age, period, and cohort effects in mortality from AMI in China from 1987 to 2014. Data on deaths from AMI between 1987 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Annual Report (1987-2001) and the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook (2003-2015). We then conducted an age-period-cohort analysis using the intrinsic estimator approach. There was an upward trend in AMI mortality in both urban and rural populations that accelerated from 2004 onwards. AMI mortality increased 5.6-fold from 1987 to 2014. The net age effect on AMI mortality increased exponentially. AMI mortality risk in the 80-84years of age bracket was 220.15 and 190.70 times higher than in the 15-19years of age bracket in urban and rural populations, respectively. There was a V-shaped trend in the net period effect between 1999 and 2009. Meanwhile, although there was a global reduction in the cohort effect in urban and rural AMI mortality, we found a modest increase among urban populations born between 1975 and 1989 and rural populations born between 1990 and 1999. The changes in exposure to lifestyle-related risk factors and triggers such as air pollution have contributed to the increase in AMI mortality in China over recent decades. The sharp increase in AMI mortality since 2004 is primarily attributable to population aging and the rise in AMI deaths among younger generations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Secular trends in weight status and weight-related behaviors in Korean adolescents from 2006 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonho; So, Wi-Young

    2016-11-14

    The purpose of this study was to examine the secular trends in weight status and weight-related behaviors in adolescents in Korea from 2006 to 2013. Using a repeated cross-sectional design, we analyzed raw data from the 2006 and 2013 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey, which included 69,500 adolescents in 2006 and 70,354 adolescents in 2013. Subjects were 12- to 18-year-old boys and girls from the first grade of middle school through the third grade of high school. The data was collected by using an anonymous self-administered online survey. From 2006 to 2013, the prevalence of obesity increased by 0.7 (percent point; %p) (p < 0.001) in boys and 1.0%p (p < 0.001) in girls. At the same time, the prevalence of obesity increased by 1.0%p (p < 0.001) in middle-school students and decreased by 0.7%p (p < 0.001) in high-school students. Healthy, unhealthy, and extreme weight-control behaviors decreased in all adolescents (all p < 0.001). Obesity and unhealthy weight control behaviors in Korean adolescents remain major public concerns, and programs to encourage healthy weight control behaviors are required.

  7. Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Hiu-Ying; Leung, Chit-Ming; Chan, Yap-Hang; Lee, Anne Wing-Mui; Kwong, Dora Lai-Wan; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

    2013-06-19

    Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong

  8. Capacity of Physiotherapy Workforce Production in Thailand: Public-Private Mix, Secular Trend and Geographic Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewsawang, Sarinee; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana

    2016-06-01

    In Thailand, the shortage of physiotherapists has been an increasing concern because of increased health burden from demographic and epidemiologic changes. This study aims to analyse the current situation of the physiotherapy workforce production system, secular trend, geographical distribution and comparison of public and private physiotherapy training institutes. Longitudinal data related to production capacity of the physiotherapy institutes were applied. Data from 2008 to 2012 were obtained from all 16 physiotherapy institutes in Thailand. Data during 2000-2007 were also retrieved from annual reports from the Ministry of Education. Descriptive statistics were initially used. Comparison was made between public and private physiotherapy institutes in terms of the number of students admitted and graduated, number of teachers, annual tuition fee, student-teacher ratio and dropout rate within 1 year. Predictive factors for graduation within 4 years were determined using logistic regression. In Thailand, there was an average of 800 physiotherapy graduates per year. New private institutes have been recently established and have steadily increased student admission rates. However, this has resulted in a high student-teacher ratio (median 7.1, inter-quartile range (IQR) 5.9-10.0). The first-year dropout rate in 2012 was 29.1%. Geographically, the majority of the institutes are clustered in the central region. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly lower probability of graduation within 4 years among students admitted to the private institutes and those in non-north-east region. The production capacity of the physiotherapy workforce is below an estimated need. Private physiotherapy institutes need more support to improve the situation of staff shortages and student graduation rates. The non-central regions should be encouraged to produce more physiotherapists. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Secular trends in the prevalence of dementia and depression in Swedish septuagenarians 1976-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiberg, P; Waern, M; Billstedt, E; Ostling, S; Skoog, I

    2013-12-01

    It is not clear whether the prevalence of dementia and depression among the elderly has changed during the past 30 years. Population-based samples from Gothenburg, Sweden were examined with identical psychiatric and neuropsychiatric examinations at age 70 years in 1976-1977 (n = 404, response rate 78.8%) and 2000-2001 (n = 579, response rate 66.4%), and at age 75 in 1976-1977 (n = 303, response rate 78%) and 2005-2006 (n = 753, response rate 63.4%). Depression was diagnosed according to DSM-IV and dementia according to Kay's criteria. General linear models (GLMs) were used to test for differences between groups. Dementia was related to age but not to birth cohort or sex. Major depression was related to sex (higher in women) but not to birth cohort or age. Minor depression was related to birth cohort, sex (higher in women), age (higher at age 75) and the interaction effect of birth cohort × age; that is, the prevalence of minor depression increased with age in the 2000s but not in the 1970s. Thus, the prevalence of minor depression was higher in 2005-2006 than in 1976-1977 among 75-year-olds for both men (12.4% v. 3.7%) and women (19.1% v. 5.6%) whereas there were no birth cohort differences at age 70. Secular changes were observed only for minor depression, which is considered to be related more to psychosocial factors than major depression. The high prevalence of minor depression in later-born birth cohorts emphasizes the importance of detecting minor depression in the elderly.

  10. Secular trends in cholesterol lipoproteins and triglycerides and prevalence of dyslipidemias in an urban Indian population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Agrawal, Aachu; Kaul, Vijay; Gaur, Kiran; Gupta, Vijay P

    2008-01-01

    Background Coronary heart disease is increasing in urban Indian subjects and lipid abnormalities are important risk factors. To determine secular trends in prevalence of various lipid abnormalities we performed studies in an urban Indian population. Methods Successive epidemiological Jaipur Heart Watch (JHW) studies were performed in Western India in urban locations. The studies evaluated adults ≥ 20 years for multiple coronary risk factors using standardized methodology (JHW-1, 1993–94, n = 2212; JHW-2, 1999–2001, n = 1123; JHW-3, 2002–03, n = 458, and JHW-4 2004–2005, n = 1127). For the present analyses data of subjects 20–59 years (n = 4136, men 2341, women 1795) have been included. In successive studies, fasting measurements for cholesterol lipoproteins (total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol) and triglycerides were performed in 193, 454, 179 and 252 men (n = 1078) and 83, 472, 195, 248 women (n = 998) respectively (total 2076). Age-group specific levels of various cholesterol lipoproteins, triglycerides and their ratios were determined. Prevalence of various dyslipidemias (total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dl, LDL cholesterol ≥ 130 mg/dl, non-HDL cholesterol ≥ 160 mg/dl, triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dl, low HDL cholesterol dyslipidemias was determined using linear-curve estimation regression. Association of changing trends in prevalence of dyslipidemias with trends in educational status, obesity and truncal obesity (high waist:hip ratio) were determined using two-line regression analysis. Results Mean levels of various lipoproteins increased sharply from JHW-1 to JHW-2 and then gradually in JHW-3 and JHW-4. Age-adjusted mean values (mg/dl) in JHW-1, JHW-2, JHW-3 and JHW-4 studies respectively showed a significant increase in total cholesterol (174.9 ± 45, 196.0 ± 42, 187.5 ± 38, 193.5 ± 39, 2-stage least-squares regression R = 0.11, p dyslipidemias in JHW-1, JHW-2, JHW-3 and JHW-4 studies respectively showed insignificant changes in

  11. Four billion years of ophiolites reveal secular trends in oceanic crust formation

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    Harald Furnes

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We combine a geological, geochemical and tectonic dataset from 118 ophiolite complexes of the major global Phanerozoic orogenic belts with similar datasets of ophiolites from 111 Precambrian greenstone belts to construct an overview of oceanic crust generation over 4 billion years. Geochemical discrimination systematics built on immobile trace elements reveal that the basaltic units of the Phanerozoic ophiolites are dominantly subduction-related (75%, linked to backarc processes and characterized by a strong MORB component, similar to ophiolites in Precambrian greenstone sequences (85%. The remaining 25% Phanerozoic subduction-unrelated ophiolites are mainly (74% of Mid-Ocean-Ridge type (MORB type, in contrast to the equal proportion of Rift/Continental Margin, Plume, and MORB type ophiolites in the Precambrian greenstone belts. Throughout the Phanerozoic there are large geochemical variations in major and trace elements, but for average element values calculated in 5 bins of 100 million year intervals there are no obvious secular trends. By contrast, basaltic units in the ophiolites of the Precambrian greenstones (calculated in 12 bins of 250 million years intervals, starting in late Paleo- to early Mesoproterozoic (ca. 2.0–1.8 Ga, exhibit an apparent decrease in the average values of incompatible elements such as Ti, P, Zr, Y and Nb, and an increase in the compatible elements Ni and Cr with deeper time to the end of the Archean and into the Hadean. These changes can be attributed to decreasing degrees of partial melting of the upper mantle from Hadean/Archean to Present. The onset of geochemical changes coincide with the timing of detectible changes in the structural architecture of the ophiolites such as greater volumes of gabbro and more common sheeted dyke complexes, and lesser occurrences of ocelli (varioles in the pillow lavas in ophiolites younger than 2 Ga. The global data from the Precambrian ophiolites, representative of nearly 50

  12. Secular trends in fracture incidence in the UK between 1990 and 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, R Y; Wyers, C E; Curtis, E M; Geusens, P P M M; van den Bergh, J P W; de Vries, F; Cooper, C; van Staa, T P; Harvey, N C

    2016-01-01

    We studied sex-specific incidence rates in a population 50 years or older in the UK. In the period of 1990-2012, the overall rate of fracture did not change, but there were marked secular alterations in the rates of individual fracture types, particularly hip and spine fractures in the elderly.

  13. Secular Trends In Growth Among School Children of Shiraz (Southern Iran Born in the Post-War Period

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    S. POUR-AHMAD

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Background:Secular trends in stature,weight and mid upper arm circumference(MUACof 2397 school children (1268 boys and 1129 girls of the same age(6.5-11.5 yearsand sex in representative samples from primary schools of Shiraz (southern Iran at an interval of 15 years (1988 vs 2003are reported.Methods:Cross-sectional weight,height and mid upper arm circumference (MUAC curves were created for both sexes.One sample t-tests were utilized to analyze differences between average height, weight and MUAC of the 1988 and 2003 samples (the values of the previous study treated as constant. Results: Both samples included children of various socio-economic backgrounds for both males and females of each age-class. There are significant positive secular trends in stature,weight and MUAC of children born in the post-war period sampled in 2003.These children are generally taller,heavier,and larger than their peers of 15 years earlier born pre- and during the imposed war period of Iraq against Iran.The 2003 sample shows less growth deficits in relation to the CDC reference data.Conclusion:The positive trend can be explained as the result of economic development and improvement of social and health indicators in Iran in the post-war period.

  14. Association of secular trends in unemployment with suicide in Taiwan, 1959-2007: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, S-S; Sterne, J A C; Huang, W-C; Chuang, H-L; Gunnell, D

    2010-01-01

    Despite the wealth of research investigating the association of unemployment with suicide in the West, few studies have investigated the association in non-Western countries. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between secular trends in unemployment and suicide in Taiwan. Time-series analysis. Overall and age-specific suicide rates (1959-2007) for Taiwanese men and women aged 15 years or above were calculated from national population and mortality statistics. The association of secular trends in unemployment with suicide was investigated graphically and using time-series modelling (Prais-Winsten regression). Rises in unemployment were associated with an increase in male suicide rates, but evidence for an association in females was limited. In the model controlling for changes in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP growth, divorce and female labour force participation, for every 1% rise in unemployment, male suicide rates increased by 3.1 (95% confidence interval 1.4-4.8) per 100,000. There is no evidence for a difference in the strength of association between men of different ages. Trends in suicide, particularly for adult males, appear to be influenced by unemployment. The results have implications for suicide prevention, in particular for societies facing acute rises in unemployment during recessions. Copyright 2009 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The effect of secular trends in the classroom furniture mismatch: support for continuous update of school furniture standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellucci, H I; Arezes, P M; Molenbroek, J F M; Viviani, C

    2015-01-01

    In order to create safer schools, the Chilean authorities published a Standard regarding school furniture dimensions. The aims of this study are twofold: to verify the existence of positive secular trend within the Chilean student population and to evaluate the potential mismatch between the anthropometric characteristics and the school furniture dimensions defined by the mentioned standard. The sample consists of 3078 subjects. Eight anthropometric measures were gathered, together with six furniture dimensions from the mentioned standard. There is an average increase for some dimensions within the Chilean student population over the past two decades. Accordingly, almost 18% of the students will find the seat height to be too high. Seat depth will be considered as being too shallow for 42.8% of the students. It can be concluded that the Chilean student population has increased in stature, which supports the need to revise and update the data from the mentioned Standard. Positive secular trend resulted in high levels of mismatch if furniture is selected according to the current Chilean Standard which uses data collected more than 20 years ago. This study shows that school furniture standards need to be updated over time.

  16. Secular trends in children's sweetened-beverage consumption (1973 to 1994): the Bogalusa Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajeshwari, Ranganathan; Yang, Su-Jau; Nicklas, Theresa A; Berenson, Gerald S

    2005-02-01

    To determine whether children's sweetened-beverage consumption has changed over a 21-year period (1973 to 1994) in Bogalusa, LA, and whether trends in energy intake, milk consumption, and body mass index (BMI) varied among the sweetened-beverage consumption groups. Information on food and nutrient intake was derived from a single 24-hour dietary recall collected from children who participated in one of seven cross-sectional surveys. A total of 1,548 10-year-old children (65% white, 35% African American; 51% female, 49% male) were randomly selected to participate in the study. The Cochran-Armitage Trend test was applied to examine the trends in sweetened-beverage consumption by 10-year-old children over a 21-year period. A general linear model was used to examine the trend in milk consumption, energy intake, and BMI among the sweetened-beverage consumption groups. The percentage of children consuming sweetened beverages significantly decreased from 83% (1973) to 81% (1994) (P beverage consumption over time, the mean gram consumption significantly increased from 1973 to 1994 for those children who were in the medium (P beverage consumption groups; however, there were no significant differences in total BMI across the sweetened-beverage consumption groups. The total gram amount of milk consumption was significantly lower in the medium to high sweetened-beverage consumption groups compared with the lower to no sweetened-beverage consumption groups. Total energy intake remained unchanged from 1973 to 1994 within all four sweetened-beverage consumption groups. Total energy intake was significantly higher in the high sweetened-beverage consumption group compared with the other three sweetened-beverage consumption groups. Children's sweetened-beverage consumption has changed over a 21-year period. The percentage of children consuming sweetened beverages decreased from 1973 to 1994, particularly consumption of soft drinks and coffee with sugar. Data suggest that there was

  17. Fifty years of child height and weight in Japan and South Korea: Contrasting secular trend patterns analyzed by SITAR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, T J; Mori, H

    2017-08-23

    Objectives Japanese and South Koreans have traditionally been shorter than Europeans, but have recently become appreciably taller. The aim was to quantify the secular trend patterns in height and weight growth in the two countries over 50 years using the SITAR growth curve model. Methods Data on mean height and weight by sex in 1-year age groups from 1 to 20 years were obtained by decade in South Korea (1965-2005) and Japan (1950-2010). The data were analyzed using SITAR (SuperImposition by Translation And Rotation), which estimates a mean curve and three adjustments-size, timing and intensity-reflecting how the individual surveys differ from the mean. A sensitivity analysis compared results for the Japanese data based on cohort as well as period. Results Growth patterns in the two countries changed dramatically over the study period, affecting not only height and weight but also developmental age, in that the growth period advanced in timing and shrank in duration. SITAR fitted the data well. The trends were larger in South Korea than Japan, and puberty timing in Japan stabilized by 1970. Most of the height increment seen in adults had already accrued by age 1.5 years, whereas the adult weight increment accrued throughout childhood. Conclusions The secular height trend in these countries represents increased growth in the long bones during infancy, so it can be viewed as the inverse of stunting. There are striking country differences in growth pattern, but they are not easily explained by differences in national income, diet or lifestyle. © 2017 The Authors. American Journal of Human Biology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where

  19. Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heikki Frilander

    Full Text Available Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8% men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%. The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56. Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of

  20. Secular trends of low birthweight and macrosomia and related maternal factors in Beijing, China: a longitudinal trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Xiaoyi; Chen, Fangfang; Wang, Wenpeng; Zhao, Juan; Teng, Yue; Wu, Minghui; Teng, Honghong; Zhang, Xue; Qi, Hong; Liu, Xiaohong; Tan, Chunying; Mi, Jie

    2014-03-18

    Information tracking changes of birthweight is scarce in China. To examine trends of low birthweight (birthweight macrosomia (birthweight ≥ 4000 g) and potential risk factors in Beijing, hospital records from two major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in urban districts in Beijing were analyzed. Hospital records from 1996 to 2010 were retrieved. Information of prenatal examination and birth outcomes was entered into a structured database. Live births were used for trend analysis. Information of live births in 2010 was used to identify potential risk factors. A total of 63 661 live births were delivered during 1996-2010 in the study hospitals. The average birthweight increased from 3271 g in 1996 to 3 359 g in 2000 and slightly declined to 3 331 in 2010. The percentage of low birthweight fluctuated around 4.0%. No significant increase or decrease was observed. Preterm birth was the main cause of low birthweight, accounting for more than 73% of low birthweight. The average percentage of macrosomia was 7.6%. The percentages of macrosomia increased from 6.6% in 1996 to 9.5% in 2000 and declined to 7.0% in 2010. Excessive gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes were significantly associated with macrosomia. Continuously monitoring abnormal birthweight is needed and intervention should focus on appropriate gestational weight gain and reduction of preterm birth and gestational diabetes.

  1. The influence of migration on secular trends in sex ratios at birth in cuba in the past fifty years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, V

    2014-08-01

    Secular trends have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births) in various countries and this ratio is anticipated to approximate 0.515. Annual national data for male and female live births in Cuba with contingency tables were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed. There were 3 736 718 male and 3 534 270 female births (1960-96). Births declined steadily over the entire period. The male-female ratio at birth remained relatively stable over the period 1960-1985 with significant sharp dips for the years 1966, 1980 and 1985. There was a sharp rise in M/F from 1966 to 1969, another rise after 1985, a steep drop to 1989, and then a sharp rise once more after 1993 (all p influencing M/F.

  2. Secular trends in reported portion size of food and beverages consumed by Irish adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Sinead A; Livingstone, M Barbara E; McNulty, Breige A; Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert; Segurado, Ricardo; Dean, Moira; Spence, Michelle; McCaffrey, Tracy A; Pourshahidi, L Kirsty; Nugent, Anne P; Gibney, Eileen R

    2015-04-14

    The present analysis aimed to investigate the changes in the reported portion sizes (PS) of foods and beverages commonly consumed by Irish adults (18-64 years) from the North South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (NSIFCS) (1997-2001) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-10). Food PS, which are defined as the weight of food (g) consumed per eating occasion, were calculated for comparable foods and beverages in two nationally representative cross-sectional Irish food consumption surveys and were published in NSIFCS and NANS. Repeated measure mixed model analysis compared reported food PS at the total population level as well as subdivided by sex, age, BMI and social class. A total of thirteen commonly consumed foods were examined. The analysis demonstrated that PS significantly increased for five foods ('white sliced bread', 'brown/wholemeal breads', 'all meat, cooked', 'poultry, roasted' and 'milk'), significantly decreased for three ('potatoes', 'chips/wedges' and 'ham, sliced') and did not significantly change for five foods ('processed potato products', 'bacon/ham', 'cheese', 'yogurt' and 'butter/spreads') between the NSIFCS and the NANS. The present study demonstrates that there was considerable variation in the trends in reported food PS over this period.

  3. Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

    2017-05-01

    To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Secular trend analysis of lung cancer incidence in Sihui city, China between 1987 and 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jin-Lin; Lin, Xiao; Zhang, Li-Fang; Li, Yan-Hua; Xie, Shang-Hang; Yang, Meng-Jie; Guo, Jie; Lin, Er-Hong; Liu, Qing; Hong, Ming-Huang; Huang, Qi-Hong; Liao, Zheng-Er; Cao, Su-Mei

    2015-07-31

    With industrial and econom ic development in recent decades in South China, cancer incidence may have changed due to the changing lifestyle and environment. However, the trends of lung cancer and the roles of smoking and other environmental risk factors in the development of lung cancer in rural areas of South China remain unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the lung cancer incidence trends and the possible causes of these trends. Joinpoint regression analysis and the age-period-cohort (APC) model were used to analyze the lung cancer incidence trends in Sihui, Guangdong province, China between 1987 and 2011, and explore the possible causes of these trends. A total of 2,397 lung cancer patients were involved in this study. A 3-fold increase in the incidence of lung cancer in both sexes was observed over the 25-year period. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that while the incidence continued to increase steadily in females during the entire period, a sharp acceleration was observed in males starting in 2005. The full APC model was selected to describe age, period, and birth cohort effects on lung cancer incidence trends in Sihui. The age cohorts in both sexes showed a continuously significant increase in the relative risk (RR) of lung cancer, with a peak in the eldest age group (80-84 years). The RR of lung cancer showed a fluctuating curve in both sexes. The birth cohorts identified an increased trend in both males and females; however, males had a plateau in the youngest cohorts who were born during 1955-1969. Increasing trends of the incidence of lung cancer in Sihui were dominated by the effects of age and birth cohorts. Social aging, smoking, and environmental changes may play important roles in such trends.

  5. Secular trends of the impact of overweight and obesity on hypertension in Japan, 1980-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagai, Masato; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Takashima, Naoyuki; Kadota, Aya; Miyagawa, Naoko; Saito, Yoshino; Nishi, Nobuo; Okuda, Nagako; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Nakamura, Yoshikazu; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Abbott, Robert D; Okamura, Tomonori; Okayama, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Miura, Katsuyuki

    2015-11-01

    The prevalence of overweight (body mass index (BMI)=25.0-29.9 kg m(-)(2)) and obesity (⩾30.0 kg m(-)(2)) has been increasing over the last several decades in Japan. We examined trends of the impact of overweight and obesity on hypertension (systolic/diastolic blood pressure ⩾140/90 mm Hg or antihypertensive drugs use) using four national surveys in Japan, from which the participants were randomly sampled from the entire population. Study participants aged 30-79 years were selected for each survey (10 370 in 1980, 8005 in 1990, 5327 in 2000 and 2547 in 2010). The results showed that the impact of overweight and obesity on hypertension had increased significantly (P=0.040 and 0.006 in men and women, respectively). From 1980 to 2010, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for hypertension, comparing overweight and obesity with normal weight (BMI =18.5-24.9 kg m(-)(2)), went from 1.94 (95% confidence intervals: 1.64, 2.28) to 2.82 (2.07, 3.83) in men, and from 2.37 (2.05, 2.73) to 3.48 (2.57, 4.72) in women. Most of the association was observed in overweight participants, as only 3% of the Japanese were obese. In addition to the relationship between excessive BMI and other adverse health conditions, the rise in the association with hypertension increases the urgency in addressing weight control. We need to address the overweight and obesity epidemic.

  6. Secular Trends in Nosocomial Bloodstream Infections : Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria Increase the Total Burden of Infection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ammerlaan, H. S. M.; Harbarth, S.; Buiting, A. G. M.; Crook, D. W.; Fitzpatrick, F.; Hanberger, H.; Herwaldt, L. A.; van Keulen, P. H. J.; Kluytmans, J. A. J. W.; Kola, A.; Kuchenbecker, R. S.; Lingaas, E.; Meessen, N.; Morris-Downes, M. M.; Pottinger, J. M.; Rohner, P.; dos Santos, R. P.; Seifert, H.; Wisplinghoff, H.; Ziesing, S.; Walker, A. S.; Bonten, M. J. M.

    2013-01-01

    Background. It is unknown whether rising incidence rates of nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) replace antibiotic-susceptible bacteria (ASB), leaving the total BSI rate unaffected. Methods. We investigated temporal trends in annual incidence

  7. Secular trend in height in enlisted men and recruits from the Brazilian Navy born from 1970 to 1977

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Kac

    Full Text Available This study presents data from a survey on height trends in Brazilian Navy enlisted men and recruits born from 1970 to 1977. The sample consisted of 52,574 enlisted men and 4,459 recruits ranging in age from 18.00 to 18.99 years. The statistical processing employed two-way analysis of variance procedure, simple linear regression comparing height and year of birth and multiple analysis controlling for schooling (regression coefficient and the chi-square. The results show that enlisted men and recruits displayed height increments, characterizing a contemporary process of secular trend. Such increments were also present in the country's various macro-regions. The results were compared to a recent investigation of a national scope the National Survey on Health and Nutrition (PNSN and both enlisted men and recruits displayed higher median height than that reported by the PNSN. Level of schooling for individuals in the Navy is high, far superior to that of the Brazilian population as a whole. This set of data suggests that young men enlisting in the Navy are on average of a higher socioeconomic status than the Brazilian population in general, which limits possibilities for extrapolating the findings from this research.

  8. Secular trends in impact factor of breastfeeding research publications over a 20-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marom, Ronella; Lubetzky, Ronit; Mimouni, Francis B; Ovental, Amit; Mandel, Dror; Cohen, Shlomi

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the current study was to determine whether secular changes have occurred in the breastfeeding literature, in terms of number and type of yearly published articles and impact factor of journals publishing these articles. In order to evaluate all Medline articles related to breastfeeding, we used the Internet URL www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez and searched for articles recorded from January 1, 1992 through December 31, 2011 using as a key word "breast milk," "breast feeding," or "human milk." We specifically studied randomized controlled trials (RCTs), clinical trials, case reports, meta-analyses, letters to the editor, reviews, systematic reviews, practice guidelines, and editorials. There was a linear increase over the years in all articles recorded, from approximately 1,100/year in 1992 to 2,100/year in 2011 (i.e., an approximately 1.9-fold increase [R(2)=0.995, p=0.001]). Concomitant with the yearly increase in the number of published RCTs per year, there was a linear increase in the number of journals publishing articles on breastfeeding per year (from approximately 20 in 1992 to >60 in 2011 [R(2)=0.811, pimpact factor every year (R(2)=0.202, p=0.047). However, the ratio of high-quality articles selected (RCTs+meta-analyses+systematic reviews+CR)/low-quality articles (reviews+editorials+letters to the editor+case reports) increased significantly over time in favor of the former. There was a linear increase in the number of publications related to the field of breastfeeding and human milk, and the ratio of high-quality/low-quality articles improved over time, indicating a relative and absolute increase in the number of articles usually considered as being of high quality. There was a significant increase in the number of journals publishing breastfeeding-related articles, with a significant decrease of average impact factor of those journals.

  9. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-09-01

    To a large extent population blood pressure (PBP) affects morbidity and mortality in the society. Reports indicated that PBP decreased in many western countries. The associations between the main cardiovascular risk factors and the changing PBP have been described. The aim of this study was to investigate association between income factors and trends in population BP and hypertension. Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study on almost 20000 individuals through four surveys from 1976 to 2003. The BP measurement was fully standardised. Questionnaires on household income and CV risk factors were completed by the participants. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors there were no significant differences in systolic BP (SBP) trend associated to income among men. Among women, however, there was a reverse relationship between SBP and income. In addition, there was a trend towards a lowering of risk-factor adjusted SBP in the high income women with time. The mechanism that lies behind the associations between trend in SBP and income is not known but data suggest that poor lifestyle may explain some of the differences. The treated hypertensives are treated without income associated treatment differences. Women in higher income groups have lower SBP than women in low-income groups and the gap between SBP in high-income women and low-income women increased with time. There were no significant differences in SBP-trend associated to income among men. Results in treating hypertension did not differ between the income groups. Copyright © 2013 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    To a large extent population blood pressure (PBP) affects morbidity and mortality in the society. Reports indicated that PBP decreased in many western countries. The associations between the main cardiovascular risk factors and the changing PBP have been described. The aim of this study was to in......To a large extent population blood pressure (PBP) affects morbidity and mortality in the society. Reports indicated that PBP decreased in many western countries. The associations between the main cardiovascular risk factors and the changing PBP have been described. The aim of this study...... was to investigate association between income factors and trends in population BP and hypertension. Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study on almost 20000 individuals through four surveys from 1976 to 2003. The BP measurement was fully standardised. Questionnaires...... on household income and CV risk factors were completed by the participants. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors there were no significant differences in systolic BP (SBP) trend associated to income among men. Among women, however, there was a reverse relationship between SBP and income...

  11. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae

    2008-01-01

    -based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871) from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. RESULTS: The prevalence of students eating...... fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values

  12. Secular trends in age at menarche among Chinese girls from 24 ethnic minorities, 1985 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Song

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Declining age at menarche has been observed in many countries. In China, a decrease of 4.5 months per decade in the average age at menarche among the majority Han girls has recently been reported. However, the trends in age at menarche among ethnic minority girls over the past 25 years remain unknown. Objectives: To compare the differences in median age at menarche among girls aged 9–18 years across 24 ethnic minorities in 2010 and to estimate the trends in age at menarche in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. Design: We used data from six cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students’ Constitution and Health (1985, 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The median age at menarche was estimated by using probit analysis. Results: In 2010, the ethnic minorities with the earliest age at menarche were the Koreans (11.79 years, Mongolians (12.44 years, and Zhuang (12.52 years. The three ethnic minorities with the latest age at menarche were the Sala (14.32 years, Yi (13.74 years, and Uighurs (13.67 years. From 1985 to 2010, the age at menarche declined in all 24 minority groups. The Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean minorities showed the largest reductions in age at menarche by 1.79 (p0.05, 0.15 (p>0.05, and 0.15 (p>0.05 years, respectively, in the same period. Conclusion: A large variation in age at menarche was observed among different ethnic minorities, with the earliest age at menarche found among Korean girls. A reduction in the average age at menarche appeared among most of the ethnic minorities over time, and the largest decrease was observed in Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean girls. Thus, health education should focus on targeting the specific needs of each ethnic minority group.

  13. Secular trends of allergic asthma in Danish adults. The Copenhagen Allergy Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linneberg, A; Nielsen, N H; Madsen, F

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies have reported increases in asthma prevalence among children world-wide. Less is known about similar trends in adults. We aimed to investigate whether the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms had increased in an adult general population. Two cross-sectional surveys using identical...... immunoglobilin E (IgE) positivity as the reference in a random sample of responders in connection with both surveys. We found a significantly increased prevalence of subjects who reported shortness of breath on exposure to pollens (6.6% 0 s. 10.3%, odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI 1.34-1.95), furry animals (5.4% vs. 7.......6%, odds ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.17-1.79), and house dust (7.8% vs. 10.2%, odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.61). The validation of these symptoms showed that the positive predictive values were reasonably stable over time, which may support that a true increase in allergic asthma has occurred. In conclusion...

  14. Secular trends in the epidemiology of major infectious diseases among Israeli soldiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gdalevich, M; Mimouni, D; Eldad, A; Ashkenazi, I; Shpilberg, O

    1999-01-01

    Army personnel, albeit in general young and healthy, are at greater risk for infectious morbidity owing to higher crowding, compromised hygienic conditions, and exposure to new geographic and climatic factors. We describe the changing trends in the incidence of major infectious diseases of public health importance in the Israeli military: hepatitis A, measles, meningococcal disease, and diarrheal diseases. Departments of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics of the Israel Defense Forces Medical Corps monitor the incidence of infectious diseases within the military. Notifiable diseases are predefined and their reporting is mandatory. The incidence of hepatitis has declined significantly since the introduction of prophylaxis with immune serum globulin in the 1970s, and complete control of outbreaks has been achieved. Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases have decreased, probably as a result of intensive control measures begun in the last decade. However, sporadic diarrheal morbidity continues to rise. The vaccination of recruits against Neisseria meningitidis was begun in 1994, following an increase in cases caused by serogroup C bacteria. So far, the program has proved efficacious in reducing morbidity. Measles morbidity in the military was much higher than in the civilian sector over the years. It has become negligible since 1995, when the first cohorts with 2 vaccination doses began their service. Despite improvements in personal and environmental health measures, immunization remains the most efficient means for preventing infectious diseases in the military.

  15. Secular trend of infant mortality rate during wars and sanctions in Western Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ani, Zaid R; Al-Hiali, Sahar J; Al-Farraji, Hussain H

    2011-12-01

    To study the infant mortality rate (IMR) trend during wars and sanction periods in Western Iraq. Data collected from the birth and death certificates of Haditha Health Vital Statistics Center, Haditha city (80,000 population), Western Iraq, included name, age, gender, residence, and infant's place and date of births and deaths, in 5 different sanction and war stages of the country from 1987 to 2010, in a study period from July to December, 2010. The IMRs were analyzed and compared between these stages and with other studies. The IMR of last 2 years of the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1988) was 35.6/1000 and 33.8/1000, this decreased in the war free period (1989-1990) to 28.6/1000, then increased during the sanction period (1991-2003) to 46/1000 in 2002, decreased to 16/1000 in 2006 during no sanctions but increased violence, then increased to 24.5/1000 in 2010. Approximately two-thirds of deaths occurred during the neonatal period, and one third in the post neonatal periods. Males had higher IMR than females, and rural residence higher than urban. Economic sanctions increased IMR more than wars or violence in Haditha city. When compared with other parts of Iraq, and despite the different conflicts that faced the country during the 24 studied years, Haditha had a lower IMR, however, this was still higher than developed, and many developing countries.

  16. Secular trends in nosocomial bloodstream infections: antibiotic-resistant bacteria increase the total burden of infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammerlaan, H S M; Harbarth, S; Buiting, A G M; Crook, D W; Fitzpatrick, F; Hanberger, H; Herwaldt, L A; van Keulen, P H J; Kluytmans, J A J W; Kola, A; Kuchenbecker, R S; Lingaas, E; Meessen, N; Morris-Downes, M M; Pottinger, J M; Rohner, P; dos Santos, R P; Seifert, H; Wisplinghoff, H; Ziesing, S; Walker, A S; Bonten, M J M

    2013-03-01

    It is unknown whether rising incidence rates of nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) replace antibiotic-susceptible bacteria (ASB), leaving the total BSI rate unaffected. We investigated temporal trends in annual incidence densities (events per 100 000 patient-days) of nosocomial BSIs caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), ARB other than MRSA, and ASB in 7 ARB-endemic and 7 ARB-nonendemic hospitals between 1998 and 2007. 33 130 nosocomial BSIs (14% caused by ARB) yielded 36 679 microorganisms. From 1998 to 2007, the MRSA incidence density increased from 0.2 to 0.7 (annual increase, 22%) in ARB-nonendemic hospitals, and from 3.1 to 11.7 (annual increase, 10%) in ARB-endemic hospitals (P = .2), increasing the incidence density difference between ARB-endemic and ARB-nonendemic hospitals from 2.9 to 11.0. The non-MRSA ARB incidence density increased from 2.8 to 4.1 (annual increase, 5%) in ARB-nonendemic hospitals, and from 1.5 to 17.4 (annual increase, 22%) in ARB-endemic hospitals (P nosocomial BSIs in ARB-nonendemic and ARB-endemic hospitals, respectively (P nosocomial BSI rates due to ARB occur in addition to infections caused by ASB, increasing the total burden of disease. Hospitals with high ARB infection rates in 2005 had an excess burden of BSI of 20.6 per 100 000 patient-days in a 10-year period, mainly caused by infections with ARB.

  17. Tendência secular das parasitoses intestinais na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in child intestinal parasitic diseases in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Urbano Ferreira

    2000-12-01

    refreou o declínio da giardíase.OBJECTIVE: Data from two consecutive household surveys undertaken in mid-80s and mid-90s allow to characterize and analyse secular trends in infant and child intestinal parasitic diseases in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The two surveys included random population samples aged from zero to 59 months (1,016 in the period of 1984-85 and 1,280 in 1995-96. Stool samples were collected in both surveys and examined by sedimentation techniques using both unstained and Lugol-stained preparations. For each survey, the study of the social distribution of the parasitic diseases took into account tertiles of the per capita family income. For the study of the determinants of secular trends, hierarchical causal models, multivariate regression analyses and calculations analogous to the ones used to assess population attributable risks were applied. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: In the time span from the first to the second survey, there was a substantial reduction in the prevalence of all parasites (from 30.9% to 10.7%, helminthes in general (from 22.3% to 4.8%, giardiasis (from 14.5% to 5.5% and two or more species of parasites (from 13.1% to 0.5%. A significant decline in prevalence was observed in all social strata and the inverse association between income and intestinal parasites was kept unchanged in the period. Positive changes in distal (family income and maternal schooling and intermediate determinants (housing, sanitation, and access to health care of helminthic disease could substantially explain part of its decline in the period. The decline in giardiasis was attributed to improvement in maternal schooling, housing and sanitation. The duplication in the attendance rate to day care nurseries may have restricted the decline rate in the giardiasis prevalence in the study period.

  18. Secular changes in personality: study on 75-year-olds examined in 1976-1977 and 2005-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billstedt, E; Waern, M; Duberstein, P; Marlow, T; Hellström, T; Ostling, S; Skoog, I

    2013-03-01

    In order to study secular changes in personality factors neuroticism and extroversion, representative population samples of non-demented 75-year-olds underwent psychiatric examinations in 1976-1977 (total n = 223, 138 women, 85 men) and 2005-2006 (total n = 556, 322 women and 234 men). Eysenck Personality Inventory was used at both occasions. Demographic factors (educational level, marital status, having children) were registered. Seventy-five-year-olds examined in 2005-2006 had higher values on extroversion and lower values on the Lie scale compared with those examined in 1976-1977. Neuroticism did not differ between the two birth cohorts. Neuroticism scores were higher in women than in men both in 1976-1977 and 2005-2006, and Lie score was higher in women than in men in 2005-2006. Our findings suggest that present cohorts of 75-year-olds are more extroverted and less prone to respond in a socially desirable manner than those born three decades earlier. Neuroticism levels remained unchanged, suggesting this trait may be less influenced by environmental factors than the other traits studied. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Multiculturalism and secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2017-01-01

    Multiculturalism in a European context increasingly has come to denote a concern with religious minorities. Claims for multicultural accommodation of minorities therefore potentially conflict with secularist requirements of separation of politics and religion. Whether there is a conflict depends...... on the general understandings of multiculturalism and secularism. The paper therefore distinguishes and examines different general understandings. Both multiculturalism and secularism can be understood as sets of policies, or as forms of minority accommodation or views about the relationship between religion...

  20. Secular stagnation

    OpenAIRE

    Bossone, Biagio

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes the emergence of secular stagnation as the consequence of a rise in the preference for liquidity. Such a rise is caused by a persistent set of pessimistic expectations. This study also investigates the effectiveness of a broad range of demand-management policies in dealing with secular stagnation. To obtain these results, this study uses a model where agents derive utility from holding assets of different degrees of liquidity. In this environment, rational expectations int...

  1. Gender disparity in the secular trends for obesity prevalence in Korea: analyses based on the KNHANES 1998-2009

    OpenAIRE

    Rhee, Sang Youl; Park, Seok Won; Kim, Dae Jung; Woo, Jeongtaek

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aims A similar gender-associated trend in obesity is observed worldwide. Nevertheless, systematic analyses of gender-specific characteristics in the general Korean population are rare. Methods We analyzed the prevalence of obesity in Korean adults aged ? 19 years based on data collected from the Korea Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys I to IV, and verified the obesity prevalence characteristics by gender. Results The prevalence of obesity in Korean males increased during the...

  2. Tendência secular do crescimento pós-natal na cidade de São Paulo (1974-1996 Secular trends in postnatal growth in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1974-1996

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    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    : Data from three household surveys undertaken in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil, from mid-80s to mid-90s allow to characterize and analyse secular trends in infant and child linear growth. METHODS: In the three surveys, random population samples aged from zero to 59 months (1,008 children in the period of 1974-75; 1,016 in 1984-85 and 1,280 in 1995-96 were studied. Recumbent length was obtained from children up to 24 months of age and then stature was recorded. The international growth standard was used to evaluate the child's height according to age and sex. For the study of the social distribution of growth status, tertiles of the per capita family income was taken into account in each survey. For the study of the determinants of secular trends, hierarchical causal models, multivariate regression analyses and calculations analogous to the ones used to assess population attributable risks were applied. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: In the period of 22 years covered by the three surveys, the secular trend of child growth in S. Paulo City showed a positive, continuous and apparently uniform curve. It was equivalent to a total average gain of 0.650 z scores of the international growth reference, or near 2.3 cm at the age of 30 months. The higher gain was observed among the third poorest fraction of the population -- 3.3 cm ¾ and the lower gain -- 1.7 cm ¾ among the third richest. Positive changes in distal determinants (family income and maternal schooling and intermediate determinants (housing, sanitation, access to heath services and reproductive past history of child growth explained substantially part of the improvements seen from the mid-80s to mid-90s.

  3. [Secular trend of growth in stature in Florianópolis in the state of Santa Catarina (Brazil) in relation with the human development index (HDI)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Andressa Caroline Carneiro; Niederauer, Juliana Minuzzi; Vargas, Deisi Maria

    2014-01-01

    The article seks to evaluate the secular trend of growth in stature of recruits in the 63rd Infantry Battalion in Florianópolis and correlate the information with the human development index (HDI). It involves a transversal and retrospective study of recruits aged between 18 and 20 who joined the 63rd IB in Florianópolis from 1963 to 2007. The sample comprised 600 individuals out of a total of 3000 recruits enlisted over the period. In each decade, three years were selected and within these years the first 40 files were systematically selected for analysis. It was seen that there was an increase in the order of 7 cm in height of recruits in Florianopolis over the past 47 years. This increase was more marked between the decades of 1990 and 2000, with the municipality of Blumenau having the highest average. The average heights study over the decades showed a strong positive correlation with the HDI of Florianopolis during the same period. When comparing the heights of the capital of Santa Catarina and previous studies in Blumenau, it was found that both cities have achieved the same increase of 1.4 cm/decade in the period between the 1960 and 2000. There was a positive secular trend in growth in Florianopolis, with a strong correlation with HDI values of the city between 1960 and 2000.

  4. Gender disparity in the secular trends for obesity prevalence in Korea: analyses based on the KNHANES 1998-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, Sang Youl; Park, Seok Won; Kim, Dae Jung; Woo, Jeongtaek

    2013-01-01

    A similar gender-associated trend in obesity is observed worldwide. Nevertheless, systematic analyses of gender-specific characteristics in the general Korean population are rare. We analyzed the prevalence of obesity in Korean adults aged ≥ 19 years based on data collected from the Korea Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys I to IV, and verified the obesity prevalence characteristics by gender. The prevalence of obesity in Korean males increased during the past 12 years from 25.1% to 35.7%, and the trend for an increase in obesity was significant in all age groups (p obesity in the 30- to 39-year, 40- to 49-year, and 50- to 59-year subgroups decreased significantly (p obesity prevalence in the 60- to 69-year and > 70-year female subgroups increased significantly (p gender disparity due to an increase in the prevalence of male obesity and a decrease in the obesity prevalence among young and middle-aged women.

  5. Infecciones nosocomiales: tendencias seculares de un programa de control en México Nosocomial infections: Secular trends of a control program in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Ponce de León

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO. Determinar la frecuencia de infecciones nosocomiales en el Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubirán (INNSZ desde la instauración del programa de vigilancia hasta la actualidad y conocer su impacto en estancia hospitalaria y mortalidad. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo y retrolectivo en un hospital de referencia de tercer nivel de atención. Se obtuvieron las frecuencias, el tipo y la distribución de infecciones nosocomiales de la base de datos del Departamento de Epidemiología Hospitalaria entre 1991 y 1996. Se determinó en cada paciente el grado de gravedad de su enfermedad mediante la escala de McCabe-Jackson, así como la edad promedio y el tiempo de estancia hospitaria. Se aplicó la prueba de ji² para tendencias de los diferentes parámetros evaluados. El estudio se dividió en tres etapas: prerremodelación (1991-1993, remodelación (1994-1995 y posremodelación (1996. Se compararon los periodos prerremodelación contra posremodelación. RESULTADOS. Durante este periodo (1991-1996 la tasa de infecciones nosocomiales fue de 8.6 por 100 egresos en promedio, con una disminución de 20% en su frecuencia a lo largo del mismo (pOBJECTIVE. To know the trend of nosocomial infections rates at a third level hospital since the begining of the infection control program until the present and to evaluate the impact in mortality and length of hospital stay. MATERIAL AND METHODS. A study descriptive, retrospective and retrolective was done in a reference hospital providing tertiary care in Mexico City. Recorded data included rates, type of nosocomial infections and distribution of nosocomial infections from the database of Hospital Epidemiology Division between 1991 to 1996. In every patient the degree of severity disease was evaluated according to the McCabe-Jackson's scale, we also collected age and the length of stay. Statistical analysis was done with chi² test for tendencies of

  6. Varieties of Secularism in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varieties of Secularism is an ethnographically rich, theoretically well-informed, and intellectually coherent volume which builds off the work of Talal Asad, Charles Taylor, and others who have engaged the issue of secularism(s) and in socio-political life. The volume seeks to examine theories of...... phenomena; between the new visibilities and silences of magic, ancestors, and religion in democratic politics, this book seeks to outline the particular formations of secularism that have become possible in Asia from China to Indonesia and from Bahrain to Timor-Leste....

  7. Feeding secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Johan

    2005-01-01

    and contested. He argues that in the eyes of many Muslims in Britain, this proliferation of halal calls attention to a form of impotent state secularism: the more the culture of Islamic consumption asserts itself, the more the state’s incapacity to define what is legitimate in the community’s life is felt...... life. He shows how Islamic organizations in Britain claim authority through halal in the interfaces of expanding markets, secularism, and the rights and demands of a growing group of Muslim consumers. These claims emerge in a society where powerful political discourses identify the veiling of Muslim...

  8. Fearing Secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sheikh, Mona Kanwal

    Secularism and Beyond - Comparative Perspectives: International og interdisciplinær konference, 29. maj-1. juni, 2007Arrangeret af Anders Berg-Sørensen for "Religion i det 21. århundrede" i samarbejde med kolleger fraKøbenhavns Universitet og universiteterne i Wien og Birmingham...

  9. Secular trends: a ten-year comparison of the amount and type of physical activity and inactivity of random samples of adolescents in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frömel Karel

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An optimal level of physical activity (PA in adolescence influences the level of PA in adulthood. Although PA declines with age have been demonstrated repeatedly, few studies have been carried out on secular trends. The present study assessed levels, types and secular trends of PA and sedentary behaviour of a sample of adolescents in the Czech Republic. Methods The study comprised two cross-sectional cohorts of adolescents ten years apart. The analysis compared data collected through a week-long monitoring of adolescents' PA in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010. Adolescents wore either Yamax SW-701 or Omron HJ-105 pedometer continuously for 7 days (at least 10 hours per day excluding sleeping, hygiene and bathing. They also recorded their number of steps per day, the type and duration of PA and sedentary behaviour (in minutes on record sheets. In total, 902 adolescents (410 boys; 492 girls aged 14-18 were eligible for analysis. Results Overweight and obesity in Czech adolescents participating in this study increased from 5.5% (older cohort, 1998-2000 to 10.4% (younger cohort, 2008-2010. There were no inter-cohort significant changes in the total amount of sedentary behaviour in boys. However in girls, on weekdays, there was a significant increase in the total duration of sedentary behaviour of the younger cohort (2008-2010 compared with the older one (1998-2000. Studying and screen time (television and computer were among the main sedentary behaviours in Czech adolescents. The types of sedentary behaviour also changed: watching TV (1998-2000 was replaced by time spent on computers (2008-2010. The Czech health-related criterion (achieving 11,000 steps per day decreased only in boys from 68% (1998-2000 to 55% (2008-2010. Across both genders, 55%-75% of Czech adolescents met the health-related criterion of recommended steps per day, however less participants in the younger cohort (2008-2010 met this criterion than in the older cohort

  10. Tendência secular do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo (1976-1998 Secular trends in birth weight in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1976-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Resgatar a tendência secular da distribuição do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo, SP, bem como examinar suas possíveis causas, com base em dados coletados por dois inquéritos domiciliares sobre condições de saúde na infância realizados em 1984/85 e em 1995/96, complementados por informações procedentes de levantamento de prontuários de maternidades e por informações do Sistema Estadual de Declarações de Nascidos Vivos. MÉTODOS: Os inquéritos domiciliares estudaram amostras probabilísticas da população infantil de São Paulo com idade inferior a cinco anos (n=1.016 em 1984/85; n=1.280 em 1995/96. O levantamento de prontuários estudou uma amostra probabilística dos partos ocorridos nas maternidades da cidade no ano de 1976 (n=5.734. As declarações de nascidos vivos referem-se às coortes de crianças nascidas na cidade entre 1993 e 1998 (cerca de 200 mil crianças por ano. O estudo da distribuição social do peso ao nascer levou em conta a renda familiar per capita e a escolaridade materna. A estratégia analítica para estudar os determinantes da tendência secular do peso ao nascer empregou modelos hierárquicos de causalidade, análises multivariadas de regressão e procedimentos análogos aos utilizados para calcular riscos atribuíveis populacionais. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A distribuição do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo (média de 3.160 g com 8,9% de pesos OBJECTIVE: Data from two household surveys on infant and child health status undertaken in the mid-80s and mid-90s, complemented with previous data collected from maternity hospitals records and more recent data provided by the state system on birth registries, allowed to characterize and analyse secular trends in birth weight in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The household surveys included random samples of children under 5 years old (n=1,016 children in 1984-85 and n=1,280 children in 1995-96. A random sample of births that

  11. [Physical development and puberty of Polish 13 year old adolescents in the first decade of 21st century. Current status and secular trend of growth and maturation in the last 30 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblacińska, Anna; Jodkowska, Maria; Tabak, Izabela; Mikiel-Kostyra, Krystyna; Palczewska, Iwona

    2010-01-01

    1. Current physical status and selected pubertal features were assessed in Polish 13-year old adolescents, in urban and rural areas. 2. Dynamics and secular trends of body height, mass and body mass index in 1980-2008 were analyzed. The study was conducted in 2008 in prospective cohort of 605 children (305 girls and 300 boys), who had been observed in the neonatal period, later at age of 3 years and now at age of 13 years. 49% adolescents were from urban and 51% from rural area. For secular trend analyses comparisons of the age and sex-specific means of body height, mass and BMI from 2008 with previous data from 1980, 1999 and 2005 in 13-year old were carried out. Similar comparison was made concerning average age at menarche by using previous probit analysis to determine average age at menarche during the last 3 decades. Mean values of anthropometric features in adolescents were a little higher in 13-yrs old living in urban than rural area, but were statistically insignificant. Two thirds of examined 13-year-old girls already had their first period (menarche), statistically more often urban living girls (p = 0,017). The median age at menarche for entire group of 13-year-old girls estimated by means of Kaplan-Meier analysis was 12.77 years. The girls from urban areas had their first menses earlier than their rural living peers (12.65 and 12.88 years, p = 0.01). There were no statistically significant differences in urban and rural boys concerning age of appearance of facial hair. There are increases of mean height and weight values during the period of 30 years in 13-year-olds (2.51 cm and 2.2 kg for girls and 5.51 cm and 5.08 kg for boys) and BMI 0.21 kg/m3 and 0.75 kg/m2 for girls and boys. The average age of menarche was almost the same as in Warsaw girls in 1986 and 1996. 1. The study confirmed a reduction of differences in somatic development between 13-years olds in rural and urban areas. 2. Difference in mean age at menarche is still observed, they show

  12. Trends in ultrasound examination in family practice

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    Ali F. Alamri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ultrasound examination is very frequently used for the evaluation of abnormalities in various organs of the body. Our aim was to determine whether the requests by family physicians (FPs for ultrasound examinations were appropriate. Our secondary objective was to enumerate positive and negative ultrasound reports for various diagnostic indications. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during the period of month between June and August 2010, at the Family Medicine Department of North West Armed Forces Prince Salman Hospital, Tabuk. We reviewed the ultrasound requests of all patients included in this study and the findings of the procedure. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, version 16.0. Results: The requests and reports of 815 patients for ultrasound were reviewed. Females comprised 58.7% of the referred cases. The mean age of the sample at referral was 30 ± 18.5 for females and 34 ± 20.7 for males. Only 46% of the request forms contained conclusive information and instructions. Abdominal/pelvic ultrasounds were the most frequently requested; Nearly 71.2% of the ultrasound scans were normal. Abdominal/pelvis ultrasound was more likely to be reported as normal than ultrasound scans of other regions ( P = 0.007. Patients aged 41-60 years were more likely to have an abnormal ultrasound (P = 0.02. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that FPs have to be educated about imaging referral protocols in order to achieve better outcomes.

  13. Secular trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults in rural Tianjin, China from 1991 to 2011: a population-based study.

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    Xianjia Ning

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Obesity is associated with cardiovascular diseases and has become the main public health issue in western countries and urban China. However, the prevalence and secular trends of obesity in rural China are currently unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among rural adults in northern China between 1991 and 2011. METHOD: The prevalence of overweight and obesity was assessed in adults aged 35-74 years living in a rural area in northern China by comparing two surveys that were conducted in 1991 and 2011, respectively. RESULT: The age-adjusted prevalence of overweight increased from 24.5% in 1991 to 42.0% in 2011, and the prevalence of obesity increased from 5.7% in 1991 to 19.6% in 2011. Over the 21-year period, there were significant increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity for both men and women in all age groups; however, the greatest increase was observed in men aged 35-44 years, with an 10.3-fold increase in obesity prevalence. The prevalence of obesity increased significantly in all risk factors categories, including education levels, blood pressure categories, diabetes previous history, current smoking situation and alcohol drinking situation over the past 21 years overall (p<0.05. The greatest increase in obesity prevalence appeared among those who consumed alcohol (increased by 8.0-fold. Next, there was a 5.3-fold increase in the prevalence of obesity in illiterate residents. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly among rural adults in Tianjin over the past 21 years, with the most dramatic increase observed in young men. Therefore, the burden of obesity should serve as a call for action.

  14. An Increase in the Incidence of Infective Endocarditis in England since 2008: A secular trend interrupted time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M.; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) administered prior to invasive procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis (IE) has historically been the focus of IE prevention. Recent changes in AP guidelines in the US and Europe have substantially reduced the numbers for whom AP is recommended. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommended complete cessation of AP in March 2008. We report the impact of these guidelines on AP prescribing; in addition, IE incidence was examined following the introduction of the guidelines. Methods We analyzed English AP prescribing data from January 2004 to March 2013 and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of IE from January 2000 to March 2013. Findings AP prescribing rates fell dramatically after introduction of the NICE guidance (10,935 prescriptions/month vs. 2,236 prescriptions/month, p<0·0001). Commencing in March 2008, there was also a significant increase in the number of IE cases/month (0·11 cases/10million/month, CI 0·05–0·16, p<0·0001) above the projected historical trend. By March 2013, there were an additional 35 cases/month than would have been expected if the previous trend had continued. This increase in IE incidence was significant for both ‘high-risk’ and ‘lower-risk’ individuals. Interpretation Although our data do not establish a causal relationship, there has been a substantial reduction in AP prescribing and a significant increase in IE incidence in England since introduction of the NICE guidelines in 2008. Funding Different aspects of this study were supported by Heart Research UK and Simplyhealth [Grant Ref: RG2632/13/14] and NIDCR R03 grant [Ref: 1R03DE023092-01] from the National Institutes for Health. PMID:25467569

  15. Secular trends in fast-food restaurant use among adolescents and maternal caregivers from 1999 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Nicole; Hannan, Peter J; Fulkerson, Jayne A; Laska, Melissa N; Eisenberg, Marla E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2014-05-01

    We examined trends from 1999 to 2010 in adolescents' self-reported fast-food restaurant use alongside maternal reports of fast-food consumption and purchasing from restaurants for family meals. Middle- and high-school student participants from Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota, represented diverse ethnic/racial and socioeconomic backgrounds. Adolescents completed classroom-administered surveys and maternal caregivers responded by phone or mail. The overall prevalence of frequent fast-food consumption, defined as 3 or more times per week, decreased from 1999 to 2010 among adolescents (1999: 25%; 2010: 19%; P food consumption remained highest and did not significantly decrease among Black or Native American youths. The overall prevalence of frequent fast-food purchases for family meals did not significantly decrease; large decreases were observed only among Hispanic families (1999: 18%; 2010: 6%; P food consumption to greater weight gain and poor nutrition, the observed decreases in consumption are encouraging and interventions are needed to address observed disparities.

  16. Secular and race/ethnic trends in glycemic outcomes by BMI in US adults: The role of waist circumference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Sandra S; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth; Popkin, Barry M

    2017-07-01

    For the same body mass index (BMI) level, waist circumference (WC) is higher in more recent years. How this impacts diabetes and prediabetes prevalence in the United States and for different race/ethnic groups is unknown. We examined prevalence differences in diabetes and prediabetes by BMI over time, investigated whether estimates were attenuated after adjusting for waist circumference, and evaluated implications of these patterns on race/ethnic disparities in glycemic outcomes. Data came from 12 614 participants aged 20 to 74 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1988-1994 and 2007-2012). We estimated prevalence differences in diabetes and prediabetes by BMI over time in multivariable models. Relevant interactions evaluated race/ethnic differences. Among normal, overweight, and class I obese individuals, there were no significant differences in diabetes prevalence over time. However, among individuals with class II/III obesity, diabetes prevalence rose 7.6 percentage points in 2007-2012 vs 1988-1994. This estimate was partly attenuated after adjustment for mean waist circumference but not mean BMI. For prediabetes, prevalence was 10 to 13 percentage points higher over time at lower BMI values, with minimal attenuation after adjustment for WC. All patterns held within race/ethnic groups. Diabetes disparities among blacks and Mexican Americans relative to whites remained in both periods, regardless of BMI, and persisted after adjustment for WC. Diabetes prevalence rose over time among individuals with class II/III obesity and may be partly due to increasing waist circumference. Anthropometric measures did not appear to account for temporal increases in prediabetes, nor did they attenuate race/ethnic disparities in diabetes. Reasons underlying these trends require further investigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Secular spirituality versus secular dualism: Towards postsecular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Then follows a brief discussion of secular spirituality in Africa with reference to struggle spirituality. Secular spirituality in its technospiritual mode is becoming increasingly important and is dealt with cursorily before dealing with secular spirituality as a model for a postmodern natural theology. In this context “natural theology” ...

  18. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    OpenAIRE

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. METHODS: National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. RESULTS: C...

  19. Secular Stagnation: The Long View

    OpenAIRE

    Barry Eichengreen

    2015-01-01

    Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, adverse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.

  20. Secular Trends in Admissions and Mortality Rates from Diabetes Mellitus in the Central Belt of Ghana: A 31-Year Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarfo-Kantanka, Osei; Sarfo, Fred Stephen; Oparebea Ansah, Eunice; Eghan, Benjamin; Ayisi-Boateng, Nana Kwame; Acheamfour-Akowuah, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    Diabetes Mellitus is currently a leading cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where a significant proportion of diabetes cases are now found. Longitudinal profiling of in-patient admissions and mortality trends from diabetes provide useful insights into the magnitude of the burden of diabetes, serve as a sentinel on the state of out-patient diabetes care and provide effective tools for planning, delivering and evaluating the health care needs relating to the disease in sub-Saharan Africa. To evaluate the 31-year trend in diabetic admissions and mortality rates in central Ghana. This is a retrospective analysis of data on diabetes admissions and deaths at a tertiary referral hospital in central Ghana between 1983 and 2014. Rates of diabetes admissions or deaths were expressed as diabetes admissions or deaths divided by the total number of admissions or deaths respectively. Yearly crude fatality rates for diabetes were calculated. Trends were analysed for in patient diabetes admissions and mortality for the period. Predictors of diabetes mortality were determined using multiple logistic regression. A total of 11,414 diabetes patients were admitted over the period with a female predominance; female:male ratio of 1.3:1.0. Over the study period, diabetes admission rates increased significantly from 2.36 per 1000 admissions in 1983 to 14.94 per 1000 admissions in 2014 (plinear trend), representing a 633% rise over the 31-year period. In-patient diabetes fatality rates increased from 7.6 per 1000 deaths in 1983 to 30 per 1000 deaths in 2012. The average 28-day mortality rate was 18.5%. The median age of patients increased significantly over the period. So was the proportion of females admitted over the years. Predictors of in-patient mortality were increasing age- aOR of 1.23 (CI: 1.15-1.32) for age > 80 years compared with diabetic admissions and admissions without end organ complications respectively. Diabetes

  1. Age at voice break in Danish boys: effects of pre-pubertal body mass index and secular trend

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Anders; Magnusdottir, Steinunn; Scheike, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    significant downwards trend in age at voice break in the 10-year period (1994-2003) (log-rank test p = 0.0146). There was a statistically significant difference in age at voice break between boys in the different BMI quartiles in pre-puberty (p = 0.00822) with a tendency towards early voice break...... however not exclusively be explained by a general increase in BMI in that period. Our findings indicate that puberty, as assessed by age at voice break in boys, may be starting earlier in Denmark as it has been observed in the USA, and suggest a relationship between pre-pubertal BMI and the timing...

  2. Secular trends in the cardiovascular risk profile and mortality of stroke admissions in an inner city, multiethnic population in the United Kingdom (1997-2005).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunarathne, A; Patel, J V; Potluri, R; Gill, P S; Hughes, E A; Lip, G Y H

    2008-01-01

    Our objective was to study ethnic differences in the cardiovascular risk profile and mortality of stroke admissions to an inner city teaching hospital serving a multiethnic population in Birmingham, UK, over a 9-year period (1997-2005). Hospital case notes and registry data of 3083 patients admitted with a first onset stroke were reviewed. Secular trends in the prevalence of risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction), hospital admission rates and 30-day mortality among Afro-Caribbean, European Caucasian and South Asian ethnic groups were analysed. Between 1997 and 2005, there were 3083 first onset strokes, of whom 47.6% (1595) were men, 9.3% Afro-Caribbean, 57.8% European Caucasian and 15.1% South Asian. There was a significant trend towards a reduction in non-haemorrhagic stroke admissions over the study period (P<0.001), with no ethnic variation (P=0.07). Increases in hypertension and hyperlipidaemia were observed (P<0.001), whereas myocardial infarction showed a decline (P<0.001). Compared to other ethnic groups, South Asian patients were younger on admission (P<0.001), had more hyperlipidaemia (P<0.05) and poorer survival at 30 days (P=002). We conclude that cardiovascular risk profiles among patients admitted with non-haemorrhagic stroke have changed over the last decade. In particular, hyperlipidaemia has increased, especially among South Asians. The reduced decline in stroke admissions and 30-day survival of stroke in South Asians in recent years warrants further investigation and highlights the importance of a targeted health-care approach in the migrant ethnic minorities.

  3. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Steiber

    Full Text Available This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50-90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age. This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50-64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process.

  4. Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina K; Juul, Anders

    2007-01-01

    Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

  5. Divine Rulers in a Secular State

    OpenAIRE

    Kallinen, Timo

    2016-01-01

    "The divine kingship and chiefship of the Asante people of central Ghana have been undergoing a shift towards secularization since the start of the colonial era. Timo Kallinen maintains that a close examination of this transformation provides us with a better understanding of secularization processes in Ghana more broadly, and in other post-colonial societies whose historical development likewise differs from that of the modern West, and which have largely confronted secular modernity through...

  6. Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina Kold; Juul, Anders

    2007-01-01

    Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function.......Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

  7. Secular trends in age at menarche among Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil: 1930-1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, H P; Padez, C

    2006-01-01

    The present study is part of a large research project on growth, development, nutrition, and health of Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon. The aim of this paper is to analyze the age of menarche in adolescents (N=164) and adult women (219) in the studied populations. Caboclo are admixed rural, peasant groups that live along the Amazon river and its tributaries, and there are few previous studies about them. Probit analysis of the status quo data yielded a median age at menarche of 12.29+/-1.76 years. The retrospective method was applied to recall data of the 77 post-menarcheal adolescents, yielding an average of 13.06+/-1.27 years. Number of children in the family did not show any statistical influence on age at menarche in any age group. In adult women, age at menarche decreased from 14.50 in those born in 1930 to 12.88 for those born in 1980 (F=4.371, P=0.001). The downward trend found was, on average, 0.237 year per decade in the study period. The median age at menarche in the adolescents (12.29 years) is one of the lowest values found for Central and South American populations. In the ecological context, a low age at menarche could be an adaptive advantage because it provides a greater chance for reproduction at a young age in an environment where, until recently, life expectancy was low. As has been reported for other developing countries, the change found in age at menarche in the women born from the 1930s to the 1980s is likely to be related to changes in health and nutritional factors that occurred in Brazil because this country experienced significant improvement in living standards related to education, vaccination, and health conditions, which, although not equally, reached all regions after the 1960s. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 18:83-92, 2006. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Secular trends in the appropriateness of empirical antibiotic treatment in patients with bacteremia: a comparison between three prospective cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daitch, Vered; Akayzen, Yulia; Abu-Ghanem, Yasmin; Eliakim-Raz, Noa; Paul, Mical; Leibovici, Leonard; Yahav, Dafna

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to explore whether the percentage of inappropriate empirical antibiotic treatment in patients with bacteremia changed over time and to understand the factors that brought on the change. Three prospective cohorts of patients with bacteremia in three different periods (January 1st, 1988 to December 31st, 1989; May 1st, 2004 to November 30, 2004; May 1st, 2010 to April 30, 2011) were compared. Analysis was performed on a total of 811 patients. In 2010-2011, 55.9% (76/136) of patients with bacteremia received inappropriate empirical treatment, compared with 34.5% (170/493) and 33.5% (55/164) in the first and second periods, respectively, in a significant upward trend (p = 0.001). Resistance to antibiotics increased significantly during the study period. The following variables were included in the multivariate analysis assessing risk factors for inappropriate empirical treatment: study period (third period) [odds ratio, OR = 2.766 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.655-4.625)], gender (male) [OR = 1.511 (1.014-2.253)], pathogen carrying extended-spectrum beta-lactamases [OR = 10.426 (4.688-23.187)], multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii [OR = 5.428 (2.181-13.513)], and skin/soft infections [OR = 3.23 (1.148-9.084)]. A model excluding microbiological data included: gender (male) [OR = 1.648 (1.216-2.234)], study period (third period) [OR = 2.446 (1.653-3.620)], hospital-acquired infection [OR = 1.551 (1.060-2.270)], previous use of antibiotics [OR = 1.815 (1.247-2.642)], bedridden patient [OR = 2.019 (1.114-3.658)], and diabetes mellitus [OR = 1.620 (1.154-2.274)]. We have observed a worrisome increase in the rate of inappropriate empirical treatment of bacteremia. We need tools that will allow us better prediction of the pathogen and its susceptibilities during the first hours of managing a patient suspected of a severe bacterial infection.

  9. Secular trend: morphology and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedeaud, Adrien; Marc, Andy; Schipman, Julien; Schaal, Karine; Danial, Mario; Guillaume, Marion; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Toussaint, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    In a context of morphological expansion of the general population, how do athletes follow such a pattern of anthropometric growth? Is there any relation to performance? Biometric data including mass, height, body mass index (BMI) and age were collected for 50,376 American athletes representing 249,336 annual performers playing in professional baseball, football, ice hockey and basketball. Distributions by mass in National Football League (NFL) players are described by periods. Field goals have been studied in relation to players' height in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Between 1871 and 2011, athletes from the four sports have increased significantly in mass, height and BMI, following a multi-exponential function series. Consequently, biometric differences between athletes and the general population are increasing gradually. Changes in the mass distribution within the NFL show the emergence of a biometrical specificity in relation to the field position. At the professional level, performance remains structured around precise biometric values. In the NBA, a height-attractor at 201.3 ± 6.3 cm for the best scorers is invariant, regardless of the level of play. These results suggest that laws of growth and biometrics drive high-level sport and organise performance around the specific constraint of each field position. Discrepancies between some mass and height developments question the (disproportionate) large mass increase (relative to the height increase) during the 1980s and 1990s.

  10. Objective structured clinical examination (OSCE in pharmacy education - a trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirwaikar A

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacy education has undergone a radical change as it evolves towards becoming a more patient oriented profession. With a greater emphasis on problem based teaching and competency, the Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE, supported by its reliability and validity became the gold standard for the evaluation of clinical skills of undergraduate students of medicine and pharmacy worldwide. Core competency evaluation has become a mandatory and critical norm for accountability of educational objectives as the traditional testing tools cannot evaluate clinical competence. Interpersonal and communication skills, professional judgment, skills of resolution etc., may be best assessed through a well- structured OSCE in comparison to oral examinations, multiple choice tests and other methods of assessment. Though OSCEs as an objective method of evaluation offer several advantages to both students and teachers, it also has disadvantages and pitfalls in implementation. This article reviews the OSCE as a trend in pharmacy education.

  11. Tendência secular da altura na idade adulta de crianças nascidas na cidade de São Paulo entre 1950 e 1976 Secular trends in the adult height of children born in S. Paulo city, Brazil, from 1950 to 1976

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan França Júnior

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar a tendência/mudança secular das estaturas de jovens do sexo masculino, aos 18 anos de idade, nascidos na cidade de São Paulo, SP, entre 1950 e 1976. MÉTODOS: Foi coletada amostra aleatória e representativa de 6.942 indivíduos avaliados no alistamento militar. A análise estatística compreendeu a avaliação da normalidade da distribuição estatural (teste de Shapiro-Wilk e a análise da tendência pelas técnicas de regressão linear. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A distribuição das estaturas foi considerada normal para todas as coortes. O aumento total das estaturas foi de 3,42 centímetros ao longo dos 27 anos do estudo (1,26 cm/década. A tendência no período não foi linear, havendo aumento significativo na década de 50 (0,84 cm/década, aumento não significativo na década de 60 (0,5 cm/década e aumento expressivo no período 1970-76 (2,9 cm/década. O ritmo de mudança secular observado é comparável ao de outros países e estados do Brasil. As coortes mais recentes (1975 e 1976 atingiram a maior estatura (~175 cm; contudo, este valor ainda indica déficits de 1,8 cm e 6,2 cm quando comparado às estaturas de jovens americanos nascidos em 1961 (NCHS e holandeses em 1972. Mantidas as aceleradas taxas de mudança secular da década de 70, os jovens paulistas poderão recuperar estes déficits entre uma a três décadas. Isto indica a necessidade de contínua monitoração da tendência secular das alturas na cidade de São Paulo.OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to estimate the secular trend/change in the height of young males born in the city of S. Paulo between 1950 and 1976 and measured in the year they turn 18 years. METHODS: A random and representative sample (6,942 individuals was evaluated in military draft. Statistical analyses included Shapiro-Wilk test for normality of height distribution in each birth cohort, and linear regression analysis for trend on heights. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Stature has

  12. (Post Secular Discomforts: Religio-Secular Disclosures in the Indian Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Osuri

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The post-secular turn at the intersection of the fields of political philosophy, anthropology, religious, postcolonial and cultural studies has highlighted theological political formations which have informed differential histories of the secular. This essay examines how debates around the secular and the post-secular play out in the Indian context. Some questions that the essay addresses are: What does a reconsideration of the secular, a probing of its discomforts, offer in the Indian context? And what are the limits of a post-secular turn—in the sense of a reconsideration of spiritual belief or theological conventions as a resource for co-existence—if we think through the forms of power generated by this turn?

  13. Secular Religious Establishment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2013-01-01

    Secularism as a political doctrine claims that religion and politics should be separated. The compatibility question is whether secularism can accept some forms of religious establishment in the form of institutional linkages between state and organised religion. I argue that the answer to the co...

  14. Tendência secular de crescimento em escolares de Paulínia, São Paulo-Brasil (1979/80 - 1993/94 Secular trends of growth of schoolchildren from Paulínia, São Paulo - Brazil (1979/80 - 1993/94

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Barbieri Marmo

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência secular de altura, peso e da relação peso/altura em escolares de Paulínia, São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1979/80 e 1993/94. MÉTODOS: Medidas antropométricas de peso (P e altura (A e da relação P/A de 1.903 crianças de 6,5 a 12,5 anos (51,5% M e 48,5% F de escolas públicas de Paulínia foram comparadas com dados de estudo anterior realizado na mesma cidade, com intervalo de 15 anos. Calculou-se o incremento por década e alisou-se os dados pela técnica de médias e medianas móveis (3H3H3. RESULTADOS: As médias de altura e peso foram sempre superiores às do estudo anterior, com incrementos positivos. Os incrementos para a altura variaram de 1,13 a 5 cm no sexo masculino e 1,2 a 4,33 cm nas meninas, já para o peso a variação foi de 0,53 a 4,13 kg nos meninos e 0,87 a 3,0 kg nas meninas. Para a relação P/A, as médias dos dois estudos foram muito semelhantes em ambos os sexos. CONCLUSÕES: A tendência secular positiva da estatura e do peso neste período deve-se principalmente ao desenvolvimento econômico, de saneamento básico, de habitação, de educação e na área de saúde ocorrido na cidade de Paulínia. A tendência secular positiva encontrada foi semelhante à observada em países desenvolvidos após a II Guerra Mundial e de outros trabalhos brasileiros.BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the secular trends in height, weight and weight/height of schoolchildren from the city of Paulínia, São Paulo, Brazil between 1979/80 and 1993/94. METHODS: Anthropometric measurements (height, weight and weight/height of 1,903 children (6.5-12.5y; 51.5% M: 48.5% F, from Paulínia public schools were compared with data from a previous study carried out in the same city 15 years earlier. Decade increments were calculated and data was smoothed by the technique of means and medians (3H3H3. RESULTS: Height and weight mean values were always greater than those of the previous study, with positive

  15. An Examination of Cooper's Test for Monotonic Trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Louis

    1977-01-01

    A statistic for testing monotonic trend that has been presented in the literature is shown not to be the binomial random variable it is contended to be, but rather it is linearly related to Kendall's tau statistic. (JKS)

  16. Secularism, secular state and religious freedom | Nweke | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The historic separation of the Church and the State, as an immediate product of secularism, informs the reality of secular state, a state without official religion. This paper attempts to understudy the extent to which secularism enhances religious freedom within the frame of secular state. With the tools of phenomenological ...

  17. An examination of ongoing trends in airline ancillary revenues

    OpenAIRE

    Warnock-Smith, David; O'Connell, John Frankie; Maleki, Mahnaz

    2015-01-01

    The airline industry seems permanently embedded in producing thin margins and continuously combatting downward pressure on yields. To perpetuate the problem, the industry remains eclipsed with high cost structures and low barriers to entry. However, a new sizzling concept continues to counterbalance these effects in the form of ancillary revenues. Globally, these revenues have increased by 121% from 2010 to 2014 – and the trend is set to continue as carriers are quickly implementing structura...

  18. Secular trends: 10 and 20-year comparisons of sexual maturation among students. http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2012v14n6p680

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Mateus Farias

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to verify the secular trends of sexual matu­ration of students between 11 and 15 years old, during a period of 10 and 20 years. The sample was composed by 1,002 students aged between 11 and 15 years; 536 boys (12.6±1.3 years old and 466 girls (12.5±1.2 years old who took part in the Ilhabela Mixed-Longitudinal Project on Growth, Development, and Physical Fitness. The students’ assessment period occurred in 1990/91 (initial, 2000/01 (10 years later, and 2009/10 (20 years later. Sexual maturation was analyzed according to the self-assessment method and age at menarche (month and year was collected retrospectively. The statistical analysis used was: one-way ANOVA, and Tukey’s post-hoc test. The level of significance was p<0.01. The onset of menarche in the initial analysis was at: 12.5±1.2 years old; in the 2000/01 group: 12.3±1.0 years old (Δ=-1.6%, and in the 2009/10 group: 12.2±1.0 years old (Δ=-2.4%. Although there was a tendency towards reduction in age at menarche along the periods in­vestigated, differences were not significant. There were significant differences only in genitals (G4, and pubic hair (P3 in boys after 10 and 20 years. In the same period, it did not occur any significant difference in maturational stages for girls. In conclusion, there was no secular trend of secondary sexual characteristics in boys (genital and pubic hair and girls (breast and pubic hair and in age at menarche over 10 and 20 years.

  19. A community-wide perspective of secular trends in the therapeutic management of patients with acute myocardial infarction. The Worcester Heart Attack Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, R J

    1989-01-01

    As part of an ongoing community-wide study of time trends in the incidence and case-fatality rates of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (MI) in 16 Worcester, Mass., metropolitan hospitals during the calendar years 1975, 1978, 1981, and 1984, changes over time in the therapeutic management of 3,263 patients with validated acute MI were examined. Beta-blocker and nitrate therapy use increased consistently and dramatically. Use of antiplatelet agents was inconsistent, while use of digoxin remained stable. Use of antiarrhythmic medications other than lidocaine decreased consistently while lidocaine use increased between 1975 and 1978 and then leveled off to being used in approximately 45% of hospitalized patients with acute MI in 1981 and 1984. A variety of demographic (e.g. age, sex, teaching hospital) and clinical characteristics (e.g. MI order, MI type, MI location, peak CPK findings, occurrence of acute clinical complications) were also associated with the use of these therapies. The results of this community-wide study suggest changes over time in the therapeutic management of patients hospitalized with acute MI and of various patient demographic and clinical factors associated with the use of these agents.

  20. Secular trends in the performance of children and adolescents (1980-2000): an analysis of 55 studies of the 20m shuttle run test in 11 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomkinson, Grant R; Léger, Luc A; Olds, Tim S; Cazorla, Georges

    2003-01-01

    It is widely believed that the performance of children and adolescents on aerobic fitness tests is declining. To test this hypothesis, this meta-analysis compared the results of 55 reports of the performance of children and adolescents aged 6-19 years who have used the 20m shuttle run test (20mSRT). All data were collected in the period 1981-2000. Following corrections for methodological variation, the results of all studies were expressed using the common metric of running speed (km/h) at the last completed stage. Raw data were combined with pseudodata generated from reported means and standard deviations using Monte Carlo simulation. Where data were available on children and adolescents from the same country of the same age and sex, but tested at different times, linear regression was used to calculate rates of change. This was possible for 11 (mainly developed) countries, representing a total of 129,882 children and adolescents in 151 age x sex x country slices. There has been a significant decline in performance in the 11 countries where data were available, and in most age x sex groups, with a sample-weighted mean decline of 0.43% of mean values per year. The decline was most marked in older age groups and the rate of decline was similar for boys and girls. There has been a very rapid secular decline in the 20mSRT performance of children and adolescents over the last 20 years, at least in developed countries. The rate of decline is not related to the change in the country's relative wealth, as quantified by per capita gross domestic product (GDP).

  1. Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2008-01-01

    Tariq Modood argues that European states are only ‘moderately secular' and that this kind of secularism is compatible with public accommodation of religious groups and provides a model of Muslim integration appropriate for European states. Although attention to the fact of moderate secularism pro...... a normative conception of equality, but his characterisation of multicultural equality is inadequate in several respects...

  2. Secular Trends of Breast Cancer in China, South Korea, Japan and the United States: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhenkun; Bao, Junzhe; Yu, Chuanhua; Wang, Jinyao; Li, Chunhui

    2015-12-04

    To describe the temporal trends of breast cancer mortality in East Asia and to better understand the causes of these trends, we analyzed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on breast cancer mortality trends using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. We chose three main countries in East Asia, namely China, South Korea, and Japan, which have reported death status to the WHO Mortality Database, and used the United States as a comparison population. Our study shows that in general, breast cancer mortality rates in females increased in all three East Asian countries throughout the study period. By APC analysis, we confirmed that there is, in fact, a difference in age-specific mortality rate patterns between the Eastern and the Western countries, which is presumably caused by the two-disease model. While the cause of the decrease from approximately the 1950s generation is still in question, we believe that increasing general awareness and improvements in the health-care system have made a significant contribution to it. Although the age and cohort effects are relatively strong, the period effect may be a more critical factor in the mortality trend, mainly reflecting the increase in exposures to carcinogens and behavioral risk factors.

  3. Secular Trends of Breast Cancer in China, South Korea, Japan and the United States: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenkun Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available To describe the temporal trends of breast cancer mortality in East Asia and to better understand the causes of these trends, we analyzed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on breast cancer mortality trends using age-period-cohort (APC analysis. We chose three main countries in East Asia, namely China, South Korea, and Japan, which have reported death status to the WHO Mortality Database, and used the United States as a comparison population. Our study shows that in general, breast cancer mortality rates in females increased in all three East Asian countries throughout the study period. By APC analysis, we confirmed that there is, in fact, a difference in age-specific mortality rate patterns between the Eastern and the Western countries, which is presumably caused by the two-disease model. While the cause of the decrease from approximately the 1950s generation is still in question, we believe that increasing general awareness and improvements in the health-care system have made a significant contribution to it. Although the age and cohort effects are relatively strong, the period effect may be a more critical factor in the mortality trend, mainly reflecting the increase in exposures to carcinogens and behavioral risk factors.

  4. Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

    2013-04-09

    To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

  5. Constraining spatial patterns and secular trends of springtime phenology with contrasting models based on plant phenology gardens and carbon dioxide flux networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, M. A.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2007-12-01

    Shifts in the timing and distribution of spring phenological events are a central feature of global change research. Most evidence, especially for multi-decade records, indicates a shift towards earlier spring but with frequent differences in the magnitude and location of trends. Here, using two phenology models, one based on first bloom dates of clonal honeysuckle and lilac and one based on initiation of net carbon uptake at eddy covariance flux towers, we upscaled observations of spring arrival to the conterminous US at 1km resolution. The models shared similar and coherent spatial and temporal patterns at large regional scales but differed at smaller scales, likely attributable to: use of cloned versus extant species; chilling requirements; model complexity; and biome characteristics. Our results constrain climatically driven shifts in 1981 to 2003 spring arrival for the conterminous US to between -2.7 and 0.1 day/23 years. Estimated trend differences were minor in the biome of model development (deciduous broad leaf forest) but diverged strongly in woody evergreen and grassland areas. Based on comparisons with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a limited independent ground dataset, predictions from both models were consistent with observations of satellite-based greenness and measured leaf expansion. First bloom trends, which were mostly statistically insignificant, were also consistent with NDVI trends while the net carbon uptake model predicted extensive trends towards earlier spring in the western US that were not observed in the NDVI data, showing the implication of model application outside the biome range of initial development.

  6. Religious Literacies in a Secular Literacy Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skerrett, Allison

    2014-01-01

    This article examines how a literacy teacher and her students engaged students' Christian religious literacies in a secular classroom and the outcomes of those transactions. Case study methods; scholarship offering historical, cultural, and social perspectives on Christian religious literacies; and the New London Group's theory of a pedagogy of…

  7. [The epidemic status and secular trends of myopia prevalence for Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from 2005 to 2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Y H; Liu, H B; Wang, Z H; Xu, R B; Yang, Z P; Ma, J

    2017-04-06

    Objective: To investigate the characteristics of geographic distribution and change trend of myopia prevalence for children and adolescents aged 7-18 years old from 2005 to 2014, which provides the basis for the prevention of myopia. Methods: Research material was selected from the data of 2005, 2010, and 2014 Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health, including 31 provinces (with the exception of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan). The complete detection data of binoculus in children and adolescents aged 7-18 years old were selected as our research objects. The research objects of three studies were 233 505, 216 474, and 215 160, respectively. We analyzed the characteristics of geographic distribution and change trend of myopia prevalence for children and adolescents aged 7-18 years old in 31 provinces from 2005 to 2014. Results: The overall myopia detection rates in Chinese children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years old in 31 provinces were 47.4% (111 707/235 505), 55.6% (120 456/216 474), and 57.2% (122 965/215 160) in 2005, 2010 and 2014, respectively. The growth range in this two phases were 8.0 percentage points, and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (PMyopia was growing quickly from 2005 to 2010 and only three provinces were in the situation of decline state including Tianjin, Hainan, and Ningxia. 90.3 percent (28/31) of provinces were in the situation of growth state and the growth range was 1.3%-22.3%. The growth of myopia was in the situation of slowdown from 2010 to 2014, and 38.7 percent (12/31) of the provinces were in negative growth districts including Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Guangxi, Guizhou, Tibet, Qianghai, and Xinjiang. The growth range in other provinces was 0.4%-24.7%. Conclusion: The myopia detection rate was at a higher level and growing constantly in China. There was large difference for myopia of children and adolescents among the 31

  8. Causes of hospitalization and prognosis in patients with cardiovascular diseases. Secular trends in the years 2006-2014 according to the SILesian CARDiovascular (SILCARD) database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gąsior, Mariusz; Pres, Damian; Wojakowski, Wojciech; Buszman, Paweł; Kalarus, Zbigniew; Hawranek, Michał; Gierlotka, Marek; Lekston, Andrzej; Mizia-Stec, Katarzyna; Zembala, Marian; Poloński, Lech; Tendera, Michał

    2016-09-20

    INTRODUCTION Despite the progress in cardiology in recent years, cardiovascular (CV) diseases remain the main cause of death in European countries. The knowledge concerning the structure of hospital admissions for CV diseases and clinical outcomes is fragmentary. OBJECTIVES The aim of the study was to analyze the characteristics and outcome of patients with CV disease, hospitalized between 2006 and 2014 and included in the Silesian Cardiovascular Database (SILCARD) covering a population of 4.6 million patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS SILCARD is based on the data from the Regional Department of the National Health Fund in Poland. The enrollment criteria were any hospitalization at a department of cardiology, cardiac surgery, diabetology or vascular surgery and hospitalization with a cardiovascular diagnosis at a department of internal medicine or intensive care. The data come from 310 hospital departments and 1863 outpatient clinics, and contain information on 487 518 patients and 956 634 hospitalizations. RESULTS Heart failure (20%) and stable coronary artery disease (18.5%) were the most frequent primary causes of hospitalization. The number of hospitalizations due to heart failure, aortic stenosis, and pulmonary embolism significantly increased. The highest 12‑month mortality was reported in patients with heart failure and pulmonary embolism (>30%). A decrease in 12‑month mortality in patients with heart failure, stable coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation was noted, although for some disease entities, it remained relatively high. CONCLUSIONS Between the years 2006 and 2014, in‑hospital and 12‑month mortality showed a trend for decline in many disease entities, with considerable space for prognostic improvement.

  9. Secular and postsecular psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajević, Izet

    2012-10-01

    Religious method of treatment dominated treatments of psychiatric patients until the start of twentieth century. After psychiatry was recognized as a distinct medical discipline, in nineteenth century, it begun to shift away from religious approach to the treatment of mentally ill persons. During the twentieth century, it was enriched using psychotherapy, socio-therapy and biological methods of treatment, and completely secularized. The renaissance of religion and religious influence on secular events in the beginning of 21th century and postsecular atmosphere has launched a process of desecularization of psychiatry. It can best be seen through the changes in attitude towards spiritual and religious in the process of patients' evaluation, quality of life assessment, respect for the spiritual needs of patients in the process of clinical treatment, and objective consideration of the phenomenon of religiosity by psychiatrists and other mental health professionals. Without the ambition to precisely explain and define this notion, the basic sketch of what a postsecular psychiatry is and what it is not will be outlined in this paper. The goal is to open a professional debate over the issue, which would contribute that psychiatry, despite the ongoing challenges and provocations, maintains its essence as a medical discipline and adequately respond to all the needs of its patients, including those related to spirituality and religion. Overcoming rigid secular framework, psychiatry becomes more human and more close to human. In this way, psychiatry does not lose its "scientific component" because the effects of spirituality, beliefs or religious practices on mental health can be scientifically investigated without crossing the boundaries between the natural and spiritual sciences. Although people often consider that science and religion contradict each other, these are by their very nature convergently moving towards the meeting point even if it is located at infinity.

  10. Contemplative Science and Secular Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Ozawa-de Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This article argues that the emerging project of contemplative science will be best served if it is informed by two perspectives. First, attention should be paid not only to non-analytical and/or mindfulness-based practices, but to a fuller range of contemplative practices, including analytical styles of meditation. Second, the issue of ethics must be addressed as a framework within which to understand contemplative practice: both theoretically in order to understand better the practices themselves and the traditions they come from, and practically in order to understand the ways in which contemplative practices are deployed in contemporary societies. The Tibetan Buddhist Lojong (blo sbyong tradition and secularized practices derived from it, which are now an area of study in contemplative science, are examined as a kind of case study in order to make these two points and illustrate their importance and relevance for the future of this emerging field.

  11. THE PRESERVATION OF IMPLICIT DOGMATISM IN SECULARIZATION

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    D. V. Kanakov

    2015-01-01

    Secularization in modern society is contradictory. Although there exists factor that contributes to the secularization there are some factors that restrain the processes of the secularization and strengthen the position of religion...

  12. Examining National Trends in Educational Placements for Students with Significant Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morningstar, Mary E.; Kurth, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Paul E.

    2017-01-01

    Using the least restrictive environments (LRE) data from annual "Reports to Congress," this study examined national trends in placement between 2000 and 2014 for school-aged students considered to have significant disabilities from among the categories of autism (ASD), intellectual disability (ID), multiple disabilities (MD), and…

  13. Recent secular trends in pubertal timing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kaspar; Mouritsen, Annette; Aksglaede, Lise

    2012-01-01

    . However, the limited evidence on which these recommendations were based led many experts to question these new suggestions. The emergence of new European pubertal timing data evaluated by robust clinical as well as biochemical markers has broadened our insight on how to interpret the recent pubertal...

  14. Sekulární trend v somatickém vývoji a motorické výkonnosti chlapců v olomouckém regionu za posledních 36 let The secular trend in the somatic development and motoric performance of boys in the Olomouc region within the last 36 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslav Kopecký

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Ve své studii autor analyzuje změny somatického vývoje a motorického výkonu chlapců ve věku 7 až 15 let z Olomouckého kraje v průběhu posledních 36 let. Autor konstatoval pozitivní fungování sekulárního trendu v oblasti tělesné výšky. Současní probandi vykazují významně větší výšku, ale téměř tutéž hmotnost jako chlapci téhož věku před 36 lety. Při monitorování změn motorického výkonu autor konstatoval, že v běhu na 50 m, ve skoku dalekém z místa odrazem snožmo, v hodu těžkým míčem a ve shybu dosahují současní probandi totožných výsledků jako chlapci před 36 lety. Závěrem autor konstatuje, že nedošlo k zlepšení vývoje motorických schopností a že naopak u chlapců ve věku od 7 do 15 let z Olomouckého kraje dochází ke stagnaci vývoje rychlostních a silových schopností. In his study, the author analyses the changes in somatic development and motoric performance of boys from 7 to 15 years of age in the Olomouc region within the last 36 years. The author found a positive functioning of the secular trend regarding body height. The present probands have significantly higher height but almost the same weight as the boys of the same age examined 36 years ago. In the monitoring of changes in motoric performance, the author found that the present probands achieve the same results in 50 m runs, in the standing long jump with legs together, in throwing the medicine ball and in pull-ups as the boys examined 36 years ago. In conclusion, the author states that there is no improvement in the development of motoric abilities, on the contrary there is a stagnation of the development of the speed and strength abilities of boys from 7 to 15 years of age in the Olomouc region.

  15. Post-religional perspective and secular Buddhism: Stephen Batchelor and the post-metaphysical religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Durazzo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to present one of the contemporary trends on Buddhism, specially from the last decades in West, for its encounter with the globalized and dynamic context of present societies. This Buddhist trend, the progressive secularization of its traditions and practices, not to mention its increasing acceptance of historical-textual refutation, finds in Stephen Batchelor - a former monk in two different Buddhist traditions, Tibetan and Korean Zen - a catalyzer and a well-known advocate of secular perspective to the contemporary Buddhism. Here we will present the potential dialogue between the Secular Buddhism - besides the secularizing perspectives over orthodox cultural traditions - and the post-religional subject, as proposed by Marià Corbí and the Ecumenical Association of Third World Theologians. For the purposes of this paper we will focus on the modernizing and secular hermeneutics on Dharma practice, as defended by Stephen Batchelor and others.

  16. What's it worth? An examination of historical trends and future directions in environmental valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Adamowicz, Wiktor L.

    2004-01-01

    The present paper reviews activity in environmental valuation by examining trends in publication rates over the past three decades. It also provides an overview of the demand for environmental valuation by academic markets and by policy markets. The results of this historical analysis suggest that there is not as much use of environmental valuation in policy analysis as could be expected given the academic efforts on this topic. The paper also provides an overview of the future directions tha...

  17. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    2009-01-01

    regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark...

  18. The University and the Secular Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Hall

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis of 2008 was followed by a persistent recession, with low levels of growth, weak aggregate demand, and high levels of underemployment or unemployment. For several recent authors this forced an engagement with the idea that the global economy is witnessing a secular stagnation or crisis. This article is situated against the changing landscape of English HE and seeks to understand the implications of the secular crisis on that sector, and on the idea of the University. It examines how responses to the secular crisis have amplified the twin forces of marketization and financialisation that are reconstituting the higher education sector for the production, circulation and accumulation of value. It then places this analysis inside the political economic realities of 'there is no alternative' to the logic of choice and competition. The argument is then made that as this cultural turn affects the idea of what the University is 'for', both historically and materially, academics and students need to consider the potential for developing post-capitalist alternatives. The central point is that by developing a critique of the restructuring of higher education and of the idea of the University through political economy, alternative forms of knowing and developing socially-useful practices can emerge.

  19. Exploring the determinants of secular decreases in dental caries among Korean children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye-Ju; Han, Dong-Hun

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in dental caries from 2003 to 2010. Data were from three waves of the Korean National Oral Health Surveys between 2003 and 2010, including a total of 23 059 children (11 889 boys and 11 170 girls) aged 8, 10, and 12 years. The impacts of sealant and water fluoridation on dental caries were obtained by logistic regression for each age group of children. The contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in the prevalence of dental caries were examined by a series of logistic regression models, and changes in the adjusted odds ratios for each survey year were also calculated. Over the past 7 years, the prevalence of dental caries decreased dramatically. Although sealant had a significant impact on dental caries in each survey year, remarkable decreases in dental caries from 2003 to 2010 were not explained by the secular changes in the dental sealant or water fluoridation factor. We observed important population declines in dental caries in Korea in children aged 8-12 years; however, the likely causes for these secular trends remain to be determined. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. The utility of Google Trends data to examine interest in cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schootman, M; Toor, A; Cavazos-Rehg, P; Jeffe, D B; McQueen, A; Eberth, J; Davidson, N O

    2015-06-08

    We examined the utility of January 2004 to April 2014 Google Trends data from information searches for cancer screenings and preparations as a complement to population screening data, which are traditionally estimated through costly population-level surveys. State-level data across the USA. Persons who searched for terms related to cancer screening using Google, and persons who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). (1) State-level Google Trends data, providing relative search volume (RSV) data scaled to the highest search proportion per week (RSV100) for search terms over time since 2004 and across different geographical locations. (2) RSV of new screening tests, free/low-cost screening for breast and colorectal cancer, and new preparations for colonoscopy (Prepopik). (3) State-level breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancer screening rates. Correlations between Google Trends and BRFSS data ranged from 0.55 for ever having had a colonoscopy to 0.14 for having a Pap smear within the past 3 years. Free/low-cost mammography and colonoscopy showed higher RSV during their respective cancer awareness months. RSV for Miralax remained stable, while interest in Prepopik increased over time. RSV for lung cancer screening, virtual colonoscopy and three-dimensional mammography was low. Google Trends data provides enormous scientific possibilities, but are not a suitable substitute for, but may complement, traditional data collection and analysis about cancer screening and related interests. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szasz Thomas

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.

  2. The post-secular city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Anni

    calls for reconsiderations of well established research on religion in modern society. This paper presentation takes up the challenge from four angles. First it offers an argument for studying the return of religions from the view of the modern secularized individual. It is an angle already touched upon......) elements in ritual and ceremonies. Second, emergent spaces of post-secular practices are not only connected to traditional religious sites. With Schmautz (1998) it is necessary to understand a sacred site in its original social and cultural setting, and in the present experience of it. With a point...

  3. Secular stagnation and decline: a simplified model

    OpenAIRE

    Krouglov, Alexei

    2014-01-01

    Presented is a mathematical model of single-product economy describing a nominal economic growth and a nominal economic decline. Based on the model of economic dynamics, policies handling the gravity of the secular stagnation are furnished. First, transition of the secular stagnation into the secular decline is to be prevented. Second, a two-stage economic policy against the secular stagnation should be entertained. The first stage is to promote a policy of advancing the additional demand for...

  4. Examining Mobile Learning Trends 2003-2008: A Categorical Meta-Trend Analysis Using Text Mining Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Jui-Long; Zhang, Ke

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the longitudinal trends of academic articles in Mobile Learning (ML) using text mining techniques. One hundred and nineteen (119) refereed journal articles and proceedings papers from the SCI/SSCI database were retrieved and analyzed. The taxonomies of ML publications were grouped into twelve clusters (topics) and four…

  5. Can demography explain secular stagnation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gottfries, A.; Teulings, C.

    2015-01-01

    The secular stagnation hypothesis has gained traction in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column argues that demography has played an important role in reducing the interest rates. The increase in life expectancy, which has not been offset by an increase in the retirement age, has led to an

  6. One Size Does Not Fit All: Complexity, Religion, Secularism and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    The continuing incidence of extremist acts committed in the name of religion underscores the need to examine the interplay between religion and learning. This article argues for a secular foundation in society and school to protect against religion contributing to conflict and extremism. However, this is not a hard version of secularism, but a…

  7. Christian identity of secular Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malešević Miroslava

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Among other things, intensification of process of European integrations has imposed the need for realization and strengthening of common European cultural identity, that is for creating a new set of values, which would be common to all European citizens and which would be the basis for their permanent feeling of community and an experience of belonging to Europe as a common area. What are the chances of such a project since, on one hand, Islam is appearing in Europe as a religion that does not know secularity and, on the other hand, an important part of European inhabitants is showing the rise of anti-immigrant and , especially, anti-Islamic feelings, opposition to the presence of foreigners, fear of majorization and the loss of one's own identity and the values of European culture? The existing conflict with Islam is, most often, described as a conflict between secularized West where religion is a matter of private choice and religious (primarily Islamic world where religion is regulating every aspect of life. However, innumerable examples all around us (starting with the fact that the time is counted according to the Christian calendar, Christian holidays and iconography, Biblical myths, moral codes, architecture, toponims-to mention only few constantly reminds how much Christianity (primarily as a cultural tradition is strongly present in the lives of the secular Europeans, how much is that secular context in fact permeated with Christian story. Vestiges of that past, which are all around us, are not in fact perceived as a Christian story - in meeting with European secularism such recognition comes only to "others" to whom that story is not familiar. On what premises then can such a common forum be created on which all would really feel equally at home? In this work I will try to consider possible directions in which, considering the existing circumstances, Europe could move in search of the new common denominator. Since nations, according to

  8. Secular stagnation: the history of a macroeconomic heresy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. Backhouse (Roger); M. Boianovsky (Mauro)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe paper presents a history of the concept of “secular stagnation”, from Alvin Hansen in the 1930s and 1940s to its recent revival by Larry Summers. We examine Hansen's ideas and those of young economists associated with him, notably Evsey Domar, Everett Hagen, Benjamin Higgins, Alan

  9. An examination of global and regional opioid consumption trends 1980-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastie, Barbara A; Gilson, Aaron M; Maurer, Martha A; Cleary, James F

    2014-09-01

    Despite expert recognition that strong opioid analgesics are the cornerstone of treatment for moderate to severe pain, most of the world's population lacks adequate availability of opioids. Moreover, great disparities in availability of opioids continue to exist between higher- and lower-to-middle-income countries. This study examined more than 30 years of consumption data reported to the International Narcotics Control Board, from 1980 to 2011, for five opioids that are indicated for the treatment of moderate to severe pain: fentanyl, hydromorphone, morphine, oxycodone, and pethidine. As such, this study offers a regional and global perspective on opioid consumption, providing an indication of preparedness for treating moderate to severe pain. Countries are categorized according to the World Health Organization's six geographical regions. Morphine equivalence (ME) statistics were calculated for each study drug, allowing for equianalgesic comparisons between consumption of the study opioids and well as the ability to aggregate all study opioids (Total ME). The ME statistic is adjusted for country population, which allows for uniform global-, regional-, and country-level equianalgesic comparisons of consumption of morphine with other opioids. Although overall trend lines revealed general increases by region, profound inequities in opioid consumption continue to abound globally.

  10. Secular trends in HIV knowledge and attitudes among Vietnamese women based on the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, 2000, 2006, and 2011: what do we know and what should we do to protect them?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Van Huy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: In Vietnam, women are at risk of HIV infection due to many factors. However, there is limited evidence about what women know and how they behave to protect themselves from HIV. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the trends in comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitude, and associated factors among Vietnamese women from 2000 to 2011. Design: Data from three waves of the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (years 2000, 2006, and 2011 were used. Logistic regression methods examined factors associated with each of two dependent variables, HIV/AIDS knowledge and attitude toward HIV/AIDS. Results: Although there was an increasing trend in basic HIV/AIDS knowledge and positive attitude toward the disease, in Vietnamese women in the general population over the survey years, the prevalence of women with basic HIV/AIDS knowledge and positive attitude toward HIV/AIDS was low. Multivariable models indicated that women who had higher levels of education, lived in urban areas, had higher economic status, and knew about places of HIV-related services were more likely to have good HIV/AIDS knowledge (e.g. in 2011, AOR's=3.01; 1.27; 1.88; 2.03, respectively. Women with higher educational attainment, knew about HIV services, and had better HIV knowledge were more likely to report positive attitude toward HIV/AIDS (e.g. in 2011, AOR's=2.50; 1.72; 2.23, respectively. Conclusions: This study recommends that public health programs for the control of HIV, such as behavioral change communication campaigns or social policies for women, should focus not only in improving the quality of existing HIV/AIDS counseling and testing services but also on expanding coverage to increase accessibility to these services for women in rural areas. In addition, efforts to raise the level of knowledge about HIV/AIDS and improve attitude toward the disease should be undertaken simultaneously. The results of this study can help inform HIV control

  11. Secular trends in HIV knowledge and attitudes among Vietnamese women based on the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, 2000, 2006, and 2011: what do we know and what should we do to protect them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Huy, Nguyen; Lee, Hwa-Young; Nam, You-Seon; Van Tien, Nguyen; Huong, Tran Thi Giang; Hoat, Luu Ngoc

    2016-01-01

    In Vietnam, women are at risk of HIV infection due to many factors. However, there is limited evidence about what women know and how they behave to protect themselves from HIV. The objective of this study was to investigate the trends in comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitude, and associated factors among Vietnamese women from 2000 to 2011. Data from three waves of the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (years 2000, 2006, and 2011) were used. Logistic regression methods examined factors associated with each of two dependent variables, HIV/AIDS knowledge and attitude toward HIV/AIDS. Although there was an increasing trend in basic HIV/AIDS knowledge and positive attitude toward the disease, in Vietnamese women in the general population over the survey years, the prevalence of women with basic HIV/AIDS knowledge and positive attitude toward HIV/AIDS was low. Multivariable models indicated that women who had higher levels of education, lived in urban areas, had higher economic status, and knew about places of HIV-related services were more likely to have good HIV/AIDS knowledge (e.g. in 2011, AOR's=3.01; 1.27; 1.88; 2.03, respectively). Women with higher educational attainment, knew about HIV services, and had better HIV knowledge were more likely to report positive attitude toward HIV/AIDS (e.g. in 2011, AOR's=2.50; 1.72; 2.23, respectively). This study recommends that public health programs for the control of HIV, such as behavioral change communication campaigns or social policies for women, should focus not only in improving the quality of existing HIV/AIDS counseling and testing services but also on expanding coverage to increase accessibility to these services for women in rural areas. In addition, efforts to raise the level of knowledge about HIV/AIDS and improve attitude toward the disease should be undertaken simultaneously. The results of this study can help inform HIV control policies and practices in other developing countries.

  12. Questioning Engelhardt's assumptions in Bioethics and Secular Humanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi Nasab Emran, Shahram

    2016-06-01

    In Bioethics and Secular Humanism: The Search for a Common Morality, Tristram Engelhardt examines various possibilities of finding common ground for moral discourse among people from different traditions and concludes their futility. In this paper I will argue that many of the assumptions on which Engelhardt bases his conclusion about the impossibility of a content-full secular bioethics are problematic. By starting with the notion of moral strangers, there is no possibility, by definition, for a content-full moral discourse among moral strangers. It means that there is circularity in starting the inquiry with a definition of moral strangers, which implies that they do not share enough moral background or commitment to an authority to allow for reaching a moral agreement, and concluding that content-full morality is impossible among moral strangers. I argue that assuming traditions as solid and immutable structures that insulate people across their boundaries is problematic. Another questionable assumption in Engelhardt's work is the idea that religious and philosophical traditions provide content-full moralities. As the cardinal assumption in Engelhardt's review of the various alternatives for a content-full moral discourse among moral strangers, I analyze his foundationalist account of moral reasoning and knowledge and indicate the possibility of other ways of moral knowledge, besides the foundationalist one. Then, I examine Engelhardt's view concerning the futility of attempts at justifying a content-full secular bioethics, and indicate how the assumptions have shaped Engelhardt's critique of the alternatives for the possibility of content-full secular bioethics.

  13. Magnetic Navigation in Sea Turtles: Insights from Secular Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, N. F.; Lohmann, K.

    2011-12-01

    Sea turtles are iconic migrants that posses a sensitive magnetic-sense that guides their long-distance movements in a variety of contexts. In the first few hours after hatching turtles use the magnetic field to maintain an offshore compass heading to reach deeper water, out of the reach of nearshore predators. Young turtles engage in directed swimming in response to regional magnetic fields that exist along their transoceanic migratory path. Older turtles also use magnetic information to relocate foraging sites and islands used for nesting after displacement. Numerous hypotheses have been put forth to explain how magnetic information functions in these movements, however, there is little consensus among animal navigation researchers. A particular vexing issue is how magnetic navigation can function under the constraints of the constant, gradual shifting of the earth's magnetic field (secular variation). Here, I present a framework based on models of recent geomagnetic secular variation to explore several navigational mechanisms proposed for sea turtles. I show that while examination of secular variation likely falsifies some hypothetical navigational strategies, it provides key insights into the selective pressures that could maintain other navigational mechanisms. Moreover, examination of secular variation's influence on the navigational precision in reproductive migrations of sea turtles offers compelling explanations for the population structure along sea turtle nesting beaches as well as spatiotemporal variation in nesting turtle abundance.

  14. THE PRESERVATION OF IMPLICIT DOGMATISM IN SECULARIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    D. V. Kanakov

    2015-01-01

    Secularization in modern society is contradictory. Although there exists factor that contributes to the secularization there are some factors that restrain the processes of the secularization and strengthen the position of religion. The tendency of demagnetization traditional forms is accompanied by the spread of new syncretic (Eastern and Western) cults, a revision of the of traditional religious dogmas, texts, myths and filling them with a new content, attempts to modernize traditional reli...

  15. Can Secularism Hinder Democracy? The Turkish Experiment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Begüm Burak

    2012-01-01

    ... known that there is another interpretation of secularism in which the state exercises control over religion. The Turkish case represents a unique example in the study of the relationship between secularism and democracy with regard to the dominant role of the state in religious affairs. This study will attempt to analyze the negative impact of the state’s interpretation of secularism on democracy in Turkey.

  16. Rethinking the Secular in Feminist Marriage Debates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada S. Jaarsma

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The religious right often aligns its patriarchal opposition to same-sex marriage with the defence of religious freedom. In this article, I identify resources for confronting such prejudicial religiosity by surveying two predominant feminist approaches to same-sex marriage that are often assumed to be at odds: discourse ethics and queer critical theory. This comparative analysis opens to view commitments that may not be fully recognizable from within either feminist framework: commitments to ideals of selfhood, to specific conceptions of justice, and to particular definitions of secularism. I conclude by examining the "postsecular" turn in feminism, suggesting that we can see the same-sex marriage debate not in terms of an impasse between differing feminist approaches, but in terms of shared existential and ethical affinities. 

  17. Application of Sediment Trend Analysis in the Examination of Sediment Transport Dynamics of Missisquoi Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraft, M. P.; Manley, P.; Singer, J.; Manley, T.; McLaren, P.

    2013-12-01

    Missisquoi Bay is located between Vermont and Quebec in the northeast sector of the Restricted Arm of Lake Champlain. The average depth of the Bay is slightly less than 3 meters with a surface area covering 77.5 km2. The Bay receives water from eastern and western catchment basins, most notably via the Missisquoi, Rock, and Pike Rivers. Circulation within Missisquoi Bay has been altered by the construction of railroad causeways in the late 19th century and highway construction in the early 20th century. Over the past several decades there have also been changes in land-use practices, including the intensification of agriculture, increased animal husbandry, and urbanization. As a consequence of construction and changing land use, loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Bay have increased seasonal oxygen depletion causing eutrophication. Since monitoring began in 1992, Missisquoi Bay has displayed the highest mean total phosphorus concentrations and chlorophyll a concentrations in Lake Champlain. Various efforts have taken place to reduce nutrient loading to Missisquoi Bay, but persistent release of phosphorus from bottom sediments will continue to delay for decades the recovery from nutrient diversion. To better understand the causes and timing of eutrophication in Missisquoi Bay, one component of a 5-year integrated VT EPSCoR - RACC program included an examination of N and P loadings and their distribution throughout the Bay. Internal circulation patterns are also being studied. To determine the pattern of net sediment transport and determine sediment behavior (erosion and accretion), a Sediment Trend Analysis (STA) was performed using 369 grab samples collected in the Bay. Grain size distributions for the surface sediment samples were determined using a Malvern Mastersizer 2000 particle size analyzer. Sediment maps showing the proportion of gravel, sand, and mud show that near major river distributaries sand-sized sediment was dominant with muds becoming more

  18. Pentecostal music in Kampal, Uganda. Exploring the reciprocal relationship between sacred and secular

    OpenAIRE

    Basoga, David

    2010-01-01

    Abstract In this study, I explore particular aspects in which the relationship between Pentecostal music and secular music has become prominent in Kampala, Uganda. Particularly, I examine how Pentecostal music artists have drawn inspirations from secular popular music scene particularly in the style of singing, dance movement, recording, marketing and the general performance context. The study examines the nature of Pentecostal music introduced by the European missionaries, the process of...

  19. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  20. Out of Time: The Limits of Secular Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holly Randell-Moon

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A review of Talal Asad, Wendy Brown, Judith Butler, Saba Mahmood, Is Critique Secular? Blasphemy, Injury, and Free Speech and Michael Warner, Jonathan Vanantwerpen, and Craig Calhoun (eds, Varieties of Secularism in a Secular Age.

  1. Out of time : the limits of secular critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randell-Moon, Holly

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A review of Talal Asad, Wendy Brown, Judith Butler, Saba Mahmood, 'Is critique secular? Blasphemy, injury, and free speech' and Michael Warner, Jonathan Vanantwerpen, and Craig Calhoun (eds, 'Varieties of secularism in a secular age'.

  2. Five-year longitudinal and secular shifts in adolescent beverage intake: findings from project EAT (Eating Among Teens)-II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Melissa C; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J; Story, Mary

    2009-02-01

    Detailed research examining concurrent longitudinal and secular changes in adolescent beverage intake is not currently available, particularly since the year 2000. This study's objective was to evaluate these trends in beverage intake in a large, diverse adolescent cohort. Project EAT (Eating Among Teens)-II is a 5-year longitudinal study (n=2,516) including two cohorts, which allows for the observation of longitudinal changes from early to mid-adolescence (junior high to high school) and from mid- to late adolescence (high school to post high school). Project EAT-II also examined secular trends in adolescent health behavior from 1999-2004 in mid-adolescence. Daily beverage servings were assessed using the Youth and Adolescent Food Frequency Questionnaire. Longitudinal findings indicate that intake of soda and sugar-sweetened beverages (including soda, sweetened iced teas, and fruit drinks) increased significantly among younger males, and alcohol increased across all groups (Pbeverages decreased with age: fruit juice (among all males and older females, Pbeverages (all females and older males, Pbeverage consumption during the critical transition period from early to mid-adolescence and mid- to late adolescence. Although additional research is needed to better understand nuances in adolescent consumption patterns, registered dietitians and other health care practitioners working with adolescents should address the importance of limiting sugar-sweetened beverages with low nutrient density.

  3. Examining Differential Item Functioning Trends for English Language Learners in a Reading Test: A Meta-Analytical Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Jin; Becker, Betsy Jane; Kim, Young-Suk

    2014-01-01

    In this study, differential item functioning (DIF) trends were examined for English language learners (ELLs) versus non-ELL students in third and tenth grades on a large-scale reading assessment. To facilitate the analyses, a meta-analytic DIF technique was employed. The results revealed that items requiring knowledge of words and phrases in…

  4. Examining Trends in Intake Rates, Client Symptoms, Hopelessness, and Suicidality in a University Counseling Center over 12 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeppner, Bettina B.; Hoeppner, Susanne S.; Campbell, James F.

    2009-01-01

    The question whether levels of psychopathology and symptom severity among university counseling center client populations are increasing or not has received a great deal of attention in professional psychology. We examined 12-year archival intake records of a university counseling center to test for trends regarding: (a) the overall number of…

  5. Examining Trends in Adolescent Environmental Attitudes, Beliefs, and Behaviors across Three Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray-Lake, Laura; Flanagan, Constance A.; Osgood, D. Wayne

    2010-01-01

    Since the Environmental Movement began, adolescents' views have been largely ignored in studies of public opinion. The article presents a descriptive analysis of trends in the environmental attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of high school seniors from 1976 to 2005 using data from the Monitoring the Future study. Across a range of indicators,…

  6. Moderate Secularism, Difference Sensitivity and Contextualism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2009-01-01

    The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008).......The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008)....

  7. Secular trends (1990-2013) in serotypes and associated non-susceptibility of S. pneumoniae isolates causing invasive disease in the pre-/post-era of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in Spanish regions without universal paediatric pneumococcal vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenoll, Asunción; Granizo, Juan-José; Giménez, María-José; Yuste, José; Aguilar, Lorenzo

    2015-10-13

    This study analyzed temporal trends of non-susceptibility/serotypes in invasive pneumococci from Spanish regions where pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were not included in paediatric immunization programmes. All invasive pneumococcal isolates voluntarily sent to the Spanish Reference Laboratory for Pneumococci (January 1990-December 2013) from hospitals located in target study regions were analyzed by age group. The PCV estimated coverage in children <24 months was correlated with 13-valent PCV (PCV13) serotypes trends. A total of 28,124 invasive isolates were analyzed: 3138 (11.2%) from children <24 months, 2161 (7.7%) from children 24-59 months, 781 (2.8%) from children 5-14 years, and 22,044 (78.4%) from adults. The estimated coverage increased from 17.6% (2002) to around 40% (2010-2013). The percentage of PCV13 serotypes among all isolates over time followed a cubic significant trend (R(2)=0.884), with an increasing trend up to 2001 followed by a decrease (more prominent from 2010 onwards). The estimated PCVs coverage was significantly correlated with the decrease in the percentage of PCV13 isolates in children <24 months (r(2)=0.824) and in adults (r(2)=0.786), mainly due to decreases in serotypes 1 and 7F in adults, and in serogroup 6 and serotypes 7F and 19A in children <24 months. None of the non-PCV13 serotypes stood out with substantial increases in the last period. This study showed that the different serotypes (and its associated non-susceptibility trends) were not equally affected by low PCVs disposition. Lack of impact in certain serotypes as serotype 1 (in children 24-59 months), 6C (in all age groups), and 19A (in adults) suggests the need for increasing vaccine coverage in the target vaccine population to increase direct and indirect protection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Trends in Examination Performance and Exposure to Standardised Tests in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Harvey; Leckie, George

    2016-01-01

    Schools in England and Wales since the late 1980s have been compared in terms of their performances in public examinations and standardised test scores in the form of "school league tables", with Wales ceasing to produce these after 2001. One of the factors related to performance in examinations is the choice of the examination board,…

  9. Secular Evolution in Disk Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kormendy, John

    2013-10-01

    Self-gravitating systems evolve toward the most tightly bound configuration that is reachable via the evolution processes that are available to them. They do this by spreading -- the inner parts shrink while the outer parts expand -- provided that some physical process efficiently transports energy or angular momentum outward. The reason is that self-gravitating systems have negative specific heats. As a result, the evolution of stars, star clusters, protostellar and protoplanetary disks, black hole accretion disks and galaxy disks are fundamentally similar. How evolution proceeds then depends on the evolution processes that are available to each kind of self-gravitating system. These processes and their consequences for galaxy disks are the subjects of my lectures and of this Canary Islands Winter School. I begin with a review of the formation, growth and death of bars. Then I review the slow (`secular') rearrangement of energy, angular momentum, and mass that results from interactions between stars or gas clouds and collective phenomena such as bars, oval disks, spiral structure and triaxial dark haloes. The `existence-proof' phase of this work is largely over: we have a good heuristic understanding of how nonaxisymmetric structures rearrange disk gas into outer rings, inner rings and stuff dumped onto the centre. The results of simulations correspond closely to the morphology of barred and oval galaxies. Gas that is transported to small radii reaches high densities. Observations confirm that many barred and oval galaxies have dense central concentrations of gas and star formation. The result is to grow, on timescales of a few Gyr, dense central components that are frequently mistaken for classical (elliptical-galaxy-like) bulges but that were grown slowly out of the disk (not made rapidly by major mergers). The resulting picture of secular galaxy evolution accounts for the richness observed in galaxy structure. We can distinguish between classical and pseudo

  10. Identity, Ethos, and Community: Rhetorical Dimensions of Secular Mommy Blogs

    OpenAIRE

    Macdonald, Lindsey Marie

    2015-01-01

    This study examines secular mommy bloggers, a group of women who blog about the difficulties of being a nonbeliever parent in a predominantly religious society. In this study, I explore the rhetorical dimensions of four separate blogs by investigating how each mother builds identity within her personal blog and how her sense of identity enables her to construct individual ethos. Furthermore, I illustrate how the individual ethos of each blogger contributes to a group ethos representing the en...

  11. Galaxy Zoo: Observing secular evolution through bars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheung, Edmond; Faber, S. M.; Koo, David C. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 1156 High Street, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Athanassoula, E.; Bosma, A. [Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, LAM (Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille) UMR 7326, F-13388, Marseille (France); Masters, Karen L.; Nichol, Robert C.; Melvin, Thomas [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Bell, Eric F. [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Lintott, Chris [Oxford Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Schawinski, Kevin [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, CH-8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Skibba, Ramin A. [Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, Department of Physics, 9500 Gilman Drive, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093 (United States); Willett, Kyle W., E-mail: ec2250@gmail.com [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, MN 55455 (United States)

    2013-12-20

    In this paper, we use the Galaxy Zoo 2 data set to study the behavior of bars in disk galaxies as a function of specific star formation rate (SSFR) and bulge prominence. Our sample consists of 13,295 disk galaxies, with an overall (strong) bar fraction of 23.6% ± 0.4%, of which 1154 barred galaxies also have bar length (BL) measurements. These samples are the largest ever used to study the role of bars in galaxy evolution. We find that the likelihood of a galaxy hosting a bar is anticorrelated with SSFR, regardless of stellar mass or bulge prominence. We find that the trends of bar likelihood and BL with bulge prominence are bimodal with SSFR. We interpret these observations using state-of-the-art simulations of bar evolution that include live halos and the effects of gas and star formation. We suggest our observed trends of bar likelihood with SSFR are driven by the gas fraction of the disks, a factor demonstrated to significantly retard both bar formation and evolution in models. We interpret the bimodal relationship between bulge prominence and bar properties as being due to the complicated effects of classical bulges and central mass concentrations on bar evolution and also to the growth of disky pseudobulges by bar evolution. These results represent empirical evidence for secular evolution driven by bars in disk galaxies. This work suggests that bars are not stagnant structures within disk galaxies but are a critical evolutionary driver of their host galaxies in the local universe (z < 1).

  12. THE PRESERVATION OF IMPLICIT DOGMATISM IN SECULARIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Kanakov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Secularization in modern society is contradictory. Although there exists factor that contributes to the secularization there are some factors that restrain the processes of the secularization and strengthen the position of religion. The tendency of demagnetization traditional forms is accompanied by the spread of new syncretic (Eastern and Western cults, a revision of the of traditional religious dogmas, texts, myths and filling them with a new content, attempts to modernize traditional religious forms, psychologically justify religion. Having established that these attitudes can be transformed into new forms of religious dogmatism. Now we can state certain elements of implicit dogmatism inside such movements.

  13. Trends in energy intake among Korean adults, 1998-2015: Results from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Sungha; Kim, Hyun Ja; Oh, Kyungwon

    2017-04-01

    Assessing changes in energy intake and dietary sources is important to understand trends in the prevalence of obesity. Thus, we examined trends in energy intake and its nutrient and food sources in Korean adults from 1998 through 2015. This study included 70,769 subjects aged ≥ 19 years who completed a nutrition survey. Subject data were obtained from the 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007-2009, 2010-2012, and 2013-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Dietary intake was assessed by a 1-day 24-hour recall method. In men, the daily energy intake significantly increased from 2,196 kcal in 1998 to 2,489 kcal in 2013-2015 (P for trend 1998, energy intake has increased among Korean adult men, but not among women. However, the composition of food and nutrient sources of energy intake has changed in both men and women. Energy intake and its nutrient and food sources should continue to be monitored regularly in the Korean adult population.

  14. [Nursing care at home and secularism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecointre, Brigitte

    2015-12-01

    The question of secularism, long-time confined to schools and the relationships between the Church and State, is today being raised in the field of public health. Nurses are directly affected and are integrating this dimension of secularism into their care practices. A private practice nurse describes the effect these changes are having on her practice in patients' homes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. Trends in Radiation Doses to Patients from Medical X-ray Examinations in Romania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olga Iacob; Irina Anca Popescu [Institute of Public Health, Iassy (Romania); Mihai Radu Iacob [University ' Al. I. Cuza' Iassy (Romania)

    2006-07-01

    Even if the doses received by patients during 2005 survey are lower than those estimated in the 2000 national survey on diagnostic medical radiation exposure by 27 percent, on average, their values still indicate an urgent need to develop radiation protection and optimization activities for X ray examinations, especially in pediatrics radiology. The increasing attention given in last years to radiation protection for conventional examinations, with development of national patient dosimetry protocols and reference doses, new radiation protection legislation and norms have played a significant part in this substantial reduction in effective doses. (N.C.)

  16. Dissecting the Wilderness Therapy Client: Examining Clinical Trends, Findings, and Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoag, Matthew J.; Massey, Katie E.; Roberts, Sean D.

    2014-01-01

    Over the last decade, wilderness therapy research has increased substantially in both quality and quantity and has begun to establish a base of evidence and literature. However, there is still much to be learned about the clients served and their clinical profile. The authors examined diagnostic data from discharge summaries of 929 clients (192…

  17. Prevalence and trends of obesity and association with socioeconomic status in Thai adults: National Health Examination Surveys, 1991-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aekplakorn, Wichai; Inthawong, Rungkarn; Kessomboon, Pattapong; Sangthong, Rassamee; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Putwatana, Panwadee; Taneepanichskul, Surasak

    2014-01-01

    We determined the prevalence of obesity in Thai adults aged 20 and over in 2009 and examined trends of body mass index (BMI) between 1991 and 2009. Data from Thai National Health Examination Survey for 19,181 adults in 2009 and 64,480 adults between 1991 and 2004 were used to calculate age-adjusted mean and prevalence. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of obesity with education level. In 2009, age-adjusted prevalence of obesity classes I (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)) and II (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)) in Thai adults aged ≥20 years were 26.0% and 9.0%, respectively. Compared with primary education, the odds of obesity class I were highest in men with university education. For women, the odds of obesity classes I and II were highest in those with primary education. BMI significantly increased from 21.6 kg/m(2) in men and 22.8 kg/m(2) in women in 1991 to 23.3 kg/m(2) and 24.4 kg/m(2) in 2009, respectively. The average BMI increases per decade were highest in men with secondary education (1.0 kg/m(2), P < 0.001) and in women with primary education with the same rate. There were increasing trends in BMI with slight variation by SES groups in Thai men and women during 1991-2009.

  18. Trends in the surgical options for the treatment of menorrhagia in Scotland: examination of health episode statistics, 2000-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chittenden, B G; Dallas, S; Jack, S A

    2012-05-01

    Menorrhagia is a common and important problem that has a significant impact on women's health. Menorrhagia is treated by surgical methods if primary medical methods fail. Surgical methods have changed over time and the traditional method of hysterectomy has been replaced by minimally invasive techniques. An examination of practice in Scotland suggests that minimally invasive techniques are now the most common surgical method of treating menorrhagia. Abdominal hysterectomies are still performed commonly, but the trend is towards a reduction in procedures performed annually. The changing technique of managing menorrhagia has an impact on the training of future gynaecologists.

  19. Research on meaning-making and health in secular society: Secular, spiritual and religious existential orientations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidt, Niels Christian; La Cour, Peter

    2010-01-01

    cultural basis for research in secular society. Reviewing the literature, three main domains of existential meaning-making emerge: Secular, spiritual, and religious. In reconfirming these three domains, we propose to couple them with the three dimensions of cognition (knowing), practice (doing...

  20. Secularized Society. Conscience and Forgiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Grimi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper‘s goal is to investigate secularized society by retracing its structure. What is hidden behind the notion of secularization? Our intention here is to analyse the social phenomenon of secularisation through the study of its ontology. The research will be on the identity issue, in the first place the living identity to see its resonance in social, cultural, religious and political areas. We will then arrive at the end of this paper, at the thesis – starting from the consciousness of self and the world – of a return to the authentic form of living together in reciprocal welcome as reason of personal enrichment. In such dynamics the forgiveness issue – taking into account Occidental history – will have a central, and, at the same time, redeeming role.Cette étude se propose d’étudier la société sécularisée, en retraçant sa structure. Qu’est-ce qui se cache derrière la notion de sécularisation? Ici nous entendons analyser le phénomène de la sécularisation sociale par l’intermédiaire de l’étude de son ontologie. La recherche portera sur la question de l’identité, en premier lieu sur l’identité vivante, pour voir ses résonances dans les domaines social, culturel, religieux et politique. Ainsi, nous arriverons à la thèse - à partir de la conscience du soi et du monde - pour un retour à une forme authentique du vivre ensemble dans un accueil réciproque en tant que raison d’enrichissement personnel. Dans cette dynamique la question du pardon – en tenant compte de l’histoire Occidental – aura un rôle centrale, et, en même temps, rédempteur.Il presente saggio si propone di investigare il tema della società secolarizzata ripercorrendone la struttura. Attorno alla nozione di secolarizzazione che cosa si nasconde? Si intende qui analizzare il fenomeno sociale della secolarizzazione studiandone l'ontologia. La riflessione muoverà perciò attorno al tema dell'identità, in prima istanza l

  1. Longterm trend of dental radiographic examinations in Japan. Analysis on health insurance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimano, Tatsuya [Shimano Dental Clinic, Tokyo (Japan); Suzuki, Yosuke [Ohu Univ., Koriyama, Fukushima (Japan). School of Dentistry; Sasaki, Takehito [Tokyo Medical and Dental Univ. (Japan). Graduate School

    2002-03-01

    Annual number of dental radiographic examinations in Japan was analyzed during 28 years from 1971 to 1998 using the data sampled from the health insurance records. The number of films of both intraoral and all types of radiography combined gradually increased from 1971 to 1988 and then saturated thereafter. The data combined with those previously reported in the literature indicated that the curve of the variation can be divided into three parts of the time period. The latent period before 1961 showed a slight increase in the number of radiography, the growing period from 1962 to 1988 showed a linear increase in the number and the saturated period after 1989 showed no increase. The nbumber of intraoral radiographic films increased from 2.6 millions in 1961 to about 90 millions in the saturated period, about 35 times increase. The number of panoramic radiography also increased from about 150 thousands films in 1972 to 15 millions in 1997. The number of digital intraoral radiography was 19 thousands images in 1996 and rapidly increased to 303 thousands in 1998. The annual number of radiographs of all types used in dentistry was about 0.8 films per person of whole Japanese population in the saturated period and was highest for the age groups from 55 to 74 years old showing more than 1.0. This number corresponded to about 35 films per dental clinic per week. The variation of the number of radiographic examination was parallel to the total number of dental insurance records and the recent slight decrease seemed partly to depend on the economical condition of the society. (author)

  2. Trends in performance on the psychiatry resident-in-training examination (PRITE®): 10 years of data from a single institution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Brian K; Garvan, Cynthia; Hobbs, Jacqueline A

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine trends in the Psychiatry Resident-In-Training Examination (PRITE®) scores at one institution from 2001 to 2010. The authors hypothesized that two factors, the 2003 implementation of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) duty-hour restrictions and the residency program's 2008 restructuring of its curriculum to a half-day per week of didactics, would lead to improved scores. Residents in the general psychiatry program at the University of Florida College of Medicine from 2001 to 2010 were included in this study. To examine the effect of the 2003 ACGME duty-hours change, the authors compared test results from 2001-2002 and 2003-2010. To examine the effect of the 2008 didactic restructuring, they compared test results from 2001-2007 and 2008-2010. There were 288 PRITE test scores from 2001 to 2010. The authors did not find a statistical difference between test results before and after the 2003 implementation of ACGME duty-hour restrictions or between test results before and after the 2008 restructuring of residency didactics. The hypothesis was rejected. The results of the literature review propose that examination scores are affected by other elements of residency training.

  3. Explaining Global Secularity: Existential Security or Education?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude M. J. Braun

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available At the time of data analysis for this report there were 193 countries in the world. Various institutions – the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the CIA, the World Values Survey, Gallup, and many others – have performed sophisticated statistical analyses on cross-national data. The present investigation demonstrates that valid and reliable data concerning religiosity and secularity exist for most countries and that these data are comparable. Cross-national data relating to social, political, economic and cultural aspects of life were tested for correlation with religiosity/secularity. In contrast to the most widely accepted general account of secularity, the Existential Security Framework (ESF; Norris & Inglehart, 2004, secularity was not most highly related to material security, though these were highly related. Rather, secularity was most strongly related to the degree of formal education attained. Material security explained no significant variance beyond education. Thus, religion’s primary function in the world today is being replaced, not so much by the pseudo-materialistic supplication for better living conditions as posited by the ESF, but by contemporary education – extensive knowledge of contemporary cultures, philosophy, modes of thought or processes of reasoning.

  4. Christian identity of secular Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malešević Miroslava

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Jyllands-Posten Muhammad cartoons controversy began after twelve editorial cartoons, most of which depicted the Islamic prophet Muhammad, were published in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten on September 30, 2005. The newspaper explained that this publication was a contribution to debate regarding criticism of Islam and self-censorship. In response, Danish Muslim organizations held public protests and spread knowledge of Jyllands-Postens publication. As the controversy grew, some or all of the cartoons were reprinted in newspapers in more than fifty other countries, which led to violent protests, particularly in the Muslim world. Critics of the cartoons describe them as islamophobic and argue that they are blasphemous, intended to humiliate a marginalized Danish minority, and a manifestation of ignorance about the history of western imperialism, from colonialism to the current conflicts in the Middle East. Supporters of the cartoons claim they illustrate an important issue in an age of Islamic extremist terrorism and that their publication is a legitimate exercise of the right of free speech. They also note that similar cartoons about other religions are frequently printed, arguing that the followers of Islam were not targeted in a discriminatory way. The dispute has again pointed out to the relevance of religion and religious differences in the contemporary world. Again, several questions presented themselves as significant: citizen freedom, values and the rights to exercise them, secularism, tolerance, multiculturalism majority-minority relationships and so on. The resolution to these issues appears as of the outmost importance, considering the existing tendencies of united Europe to even more firmly establish cultural, economic, and political associations, in order to launch a one, joined European identity with vanishing national, ethnic and religious differences. Therefore, the question becomes: what could serve as a foundation for

  5. Prevalence and Trends of Obesity and Association with Socioeconomic Status in Thai Adults: National Health Examination Surveys, 1991–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessomboon, Pattapong; Sangthong, Rassamee; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Putwatana, Panwadee; Taneepanichskul, Surasak

    2014-01-01

    We determined the prevalence of obesity in Thai adults aged 20 and over in 2009 and examined trends of body mass index (BMI) between 1991 and 2009. Data from Thai National Health Examination Survey for 19,181 adults in 2009 and 64,480 adults between 1991 and 2004 were used to calculate age-adjusted mean and prevalence. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of obesity with education level. In 2009, age-adjusted prevalence of obesity classes I (BMI 25–29.9 kg/m2) and II (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) in Thai adults aged ≥20 years were 26.0% and 9.0%, respectively. Compared with primary education, the odds of obesity class I were highest in men with university education. For women, the odds of obesity classes I and II were highest in those with primary education. BMI significantly increased from 21.6 kg/m2 in men and 22.8 kg/m2 in women in 1991 to 23.3 kg/m2 and 24.4 kg/m2 in 2009, respectively. The average BMI increases per decade were highest in men with secondary education (1.0 kg/m2, P < 0.001) and in women with primary education with the same rate. There were increasing trends in BMI with slight variation by SES groups in Thai men and women during 1991–2009. PMID:24757561

  6. Trends in myocardial infarction secondary prevention: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), 1999-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nilay S; Huffman, Mark D; Ning, Hongyan; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

    2015-04-22

    Nationally representative data evaluating recent trends and future projections of vascular risk factor treatment and control rates in secondary prevention of ischemic heart disease are sparse. We evaluated sex- and race-stratified cholesterol, blood pressure, and hemoglobin A1c levels and risk factor treatment and control rates in 1580 individuals who self-reported a history of myocardial infarction from The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 1999 to 2012. We used weighted linear regression to estimate time trends and created forward linear projections to 2020. Participants were 30% to 41% women, 73% to 85% white, and had a mean age of 63 to 66 years. Cholesterol treatment rates increased and reached above 80% in men and women by 2011-2012, with significant increases in control rates (as then defined) in men to 85% in 2011-2012, with projections to reach 100% by 2020. Cholesterol treatment rates significantly increased in non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics. Statin use increased significantly to 73% of myocardial infarction survivors by 2011-2012, and aspirin use increased significantly but only to 28% by 2011-2012. There were no changes in blood pressure treatment or control rates by sex, and hypertension treatment increased only in non-Hispanic blacks. Projected hypertension control rates remained suboptimal. While temporal trends suggest improvements in cholesterol treatment, unchanged treatment and control of blood pressure and persistently low aspirin use represent missed opportunities. Urgent action is needed to improve secondary prevention rates projected by 2020 to reduce recurrent events in this high-risk group. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  7. Secular change in cardiorespiratory fitness of men: Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Benjamin L; Morrow, James R; Jackson, Allen W; Defina, Laura F; Cooper, Kenneth H

    2011-11-01

    Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) has been shown to be an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, as well as health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and metabolic syndrome. During the last four decades, national guidelines for physical activity and fitness have emerged in an ongoing effort to improve health outcomes through enhanced CRF risk profiles. The purpose of the study was to describe the secular trend in CRF as a function of decade and age in a large cohort of men during the past 40 yr. A cross-sectional analysis of baseline fitness data collected during comprehensive medical examinations of 52,785 men age 20-74 yr evaluated at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, TX, from 1970 to 2009 who completed a maximum treadmill exercise test for estimation of aerobic capacity was conducted. Comparisons were made between mean fitness levels in each decade stratified by five age groups. Mean CRF in MET from estimated V·O 2max has increased overall approximately 1 MET during a 40-yr period for each of the five age groups (P < 0.0001). The greatest change occurred during the 1970s to 1980s with minimal subsequent increase and a small decline commencing in the last decade especially in younger men. In a large cohort of men, average CRF has improved during the last 40 yr with a slight decline in the favorable trend notable in the most recent decade.

  8. A Kepler's note on secular inequalities

    CERN Document Server

    Giorgilli, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    I discuss the problem of secular inequalities in Kepler by giving account of a manuscript note that has not been published until 1860. In his note Kepler points out the need for a model, clearly inspired by the method of epicycles, that describes the secular inequalities as periodic ones. I bring attention to this point, that seems to have been underestimated, since the references to Kepler's work usually report only that he observed a decreasing mean motion for Saturn and an increasing one for Jupiter.

  9. Mechanism of secular increasing of mean gravity in Northern hemisphere and secular decreasing of mean gravity in Southern hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yu. V.; Ferrandiz, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    phenomena as cyclicity and synchronism of planetary natural processes, inversion of activity of natural processes in opposite hemispheres. Numerous confirmations give the extensive data of every possible geophysical observations. The phenomenon of synchronism in annual variations of activity of various natural processes is rather brightly expressed - their phases are precisely synchronized, and the periods of extreme activity (or passivity) fall to February - March or August - September. In daily variations of natural processes similar laws are observed. Here we speak about modern processes, but similar laws take place in various time scales, including geological. In the given report we shall concentrate on the analysis of possible secular variations of a gravity at displacement of an external core (of its centre of mass) relatively to the elastic mantle. The analysis has shown, that gravitational influence of displaced superfluous mass of the core are a major factor of secular variations of a gravity. However the displaced core causes directed redistribution of atmospheric masses from a southern hemisphere in northern, and also complex slow redistribution of oceanic masses. Increase of loading of atmospheric and oceanic masses on an elastic crust of northern hemisphere results in its slow lowering. Return processes should observed in a southern hemisphere. All listed factors, certainly, directly influence variations of a gravity. In a more comprehensive sense redistribution of all fluid masses, including climatic character also result in changes of a gravity. Hemispheres mean secular trends of gravity. For an estimation of a role of factors of redistribution of air and fluid masses in variations of a gravity the point model of redistribution of masses of the Earth (Barkin, 2001), obtained very effective applications at studying of fundamental problems of geodynamics, has been used. Let's emphasize, that the Earth is active dynamic object at which activity in the certain

  10. Trends in Primary and Revision Hip Arthroplasty Among Orthopedic Surgeons Who Take the American Board of Orthopedics Part II Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslam Pour, Aidin; Bradbury, Thomas L; Horst, Patrick K; Harrast, John J; Erens, Greg A; Roberson, James R

    2016-07-01

    A certified list of all operative cases performed within a 6-month period is a required prerequisite for surgeons taking the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery Part II oral examination. Using the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery secure Internet database database containing these cases, this study (1) assessed changing trends for primary and revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) and (2) compared practices and early postoperative complications between 2 groups of examinees, those with and without adult reconstruction fellowship training. Secure Internet database was searched for all 2003-2013 procedures with a Current Procedural Terminology code for THA, hip resurfacing, hemiarthroplasty, revision hip arthroplasty, conversion to THA, or removal of hip implant (Girdlestone, static, or dynamic spacer). Adult reconstruction fellowship-trained surgeons performed 60% of the more than 33,000 surgeries identified (average 28.1) and nonfellowship-trained surgeons performed 40% (average 5.2) (P < .001). Fellowship-trained surgeons performed significantly more revision surgeries for infection (71% vs 29%)(P < .001). High-volume surgeons had significantly fewer complications in both primary (11.1% vs 19.6%) and revision surgeries (29% vs 35.5%) (P < .001). Those who passed the Part II examination reported higher rates of complications (21.5% vs 19.9%). In early practice, primary and revision hip arthroplasties are often performed by surgeons without adult reconstruction fellowship training. Complications are less frequently reported by surgeons with larger volumes of joint replacement surgery who perform either primary or more complex cases. Primary hip arthroplasty is increasingly performed by surgeons early in practice who have completed an adult reconstructive fellowship after residency training. This trend is even more pronounced for more complex cases such as revision or management of infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Secular trends in physical fitness in Danish adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars Bo; Froberg, K; Kristensen, Peter Lund

    2010-01-01

    It is important to monitor changes over time in aerobic fitness and obesity in order to target interventions when health deteriorates. We analyzed data from three population studies of adolescents carried out in 1983, 1997, and 2003. Participants were 1050 adolescents from the whole country...

  12. Mortality and secular trend in the incidence of bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medici, Clara Reece; Videbech, Poul; Gustafsson, Lea Nørgreen

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The world-wide interest in bipolar disorder is illustrated by an exponential increase in publications on the disorder registered in Pubmed since 1990. This inspired an investigation of the epidemiology of bipolar disorder. METHODS: This was a register-based cohort study. All first......-ever diagnoses of bipolar disorder (International Classification of Diseases-10: F31) were identified in the nationwide Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register between 1995 and 2012. Causes of death were obtained from The Danish Register of Causes of Death. Age- and gender standardized incidence rates......, standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated. RESULTS: We identified 15,334 incident cases of bipolar disorder. The incidence rate increased from 18.5/100,000 person-years (PY) in 1995 to 28.4/100,000 PY in 2012. The mean age at time of diagnosis decreased...

  13. Islamic banking and the question of secularism in Nigeria | Kareem ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since the introduction of Islamic banking in Nigeria, the importance of secularism has been the object of discussion, with the general belief by a large number of people that Islamic banking will Islamise Nigeria and disrupt its secularity. It is against this backdrop that this paper discusses the issue of secularism in relation to ...

  14. Aggregate demand, functional finance and secular stagnation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consump...

  15. Public debt, secular stagnation and functional finance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Fiscal policy and public debt may be required to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. This conclusion emerges from a range of different models, including OLG specifications and stock-flow consistent (post-) Keynesian models. One of the determinants of the required long-run debt ...

  16. Geographical localisation of the geomagnetic secular variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aubert, Julien; Finlay, Chris; Olsen, Nils

    2013-01-01

    Directly observed changes in Earth’s magnetic field occur most prominently at low latitudes beneath the Atlantic hemisphere, while the Pacific is comparatively quiet. This striking hemispheric asymmetry in geomagnetic secular variation is a consequence of the geographical localisation of intense...

  17. The church and the secular: The effect of the post-secular on Christianity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaco Beyers

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Paradigms determine relationships. During the Enlightenment period Emile Durkheim proposed a relationship between the sacred and the profane. Religion, which is concerned with the sacred, was defined in terms of being different from the profane. The profane came to denote the secular. The organic character of religion caused some scholars to predict the end of the church at the hand of modernisation and rationalisation. Some scholars instead envisaged a new form and function of the church. Some scholars anticipated the growth of Christianity. Reality shows that Christianity has not died out but seems to be growing. The new era we are currently in (identified as the postmodern has been described as the post-secular age where a process of re-sacralisation takes place. How will the post-secular influence the church? What will the relationship between the church and the secular be like under a new paradigm? This article suggests that within a postmodern paradigm, the post-secular will emphasise the place of the individual in the church. Fragmentation of society will also be the result of the post-secular. Religiosity in future will have to contend with fundamentalism and civil religion.

  18. Prediction of secular acceleration of axial rotation of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yu. V.

    2009-04-01

    of daily rotation of the Earth essentially surpasses non-tidal acceleration (35 %) which as shown the author is caused by the directed redistribution of fluid masses of the Earth, in turn caused by polar drift of the centre of mass of the liquid core of the Earth to the north [1]. In case of Mars the opposite picture is expected. It is quite possible, as show the executed estimations, that tidal deceleration of axial rotation of Mars much less than its positive acceleration caused by global dynamics of shells (the core and mantle). And it means, that as against the Earth in axial rotation of Mars in the present epoch an acceleration, instead of deceleration of rotation should be observed. References [1] Barkin Yu.V. (2001) Explanation and prediction of the secular variations of the Earth rotation, geopotential, force of gravity and geocenter drift. Proceedings of International Conference «AstroKazan-2001». Astronomy and geodesy in new millennium (24-29 September 2001), Kazan State University: Publisher «DAS», pp. 73-79. [2] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) To an explanation of non-tidal acceleration of the Earth diurnal rotation and secular trend of its pole. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (G) - IAG, GS003, p. 3799. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Celestial geodynamics and solution of the fundamental problems of geodesy, gravimetry and geophysics. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (S) - IASPEI, JSS011, p. 2149. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2002) Explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclicity. Izvestia cekzii nauk o Zemle. Rus. Acad. of Nat. Sciences, Issue 9, December 2002, M.: VINITI, pp. 45-97. In Russian.

  19. The Secularization of Russian Orthodoxy in the Late Russian Empire, 1860–1910: the Indoctrination and De-Institutionalization (Problem Statement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Yu. Mikhailov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article is based on the methodology of intellectual history examines the process of secularization of Orthodoxy in the late Russian Empire 1860 – 1910-ies. The focus of the formulation of a scientific problem: consideration of secularization as indoctrination Orthodoxy and de-institutionalization of the Synod Church. Under the first attempt to synthesize the doctrine Orthodoxy with modernist ideologies (socialism, nationalism, secularism (laicism, under the second – the erosion of the church as an institution by dividing into various inner-group. As a consequence of early modern rationalization to 1830–1840 there are three ways of indoctrination orthodoxy as synthesis with modern ideology. Firstly, synthesis with a modernist nationalism in its evolution from the "civilian" to the "political". The concept of late imperial political nationalism (N.P. Ignatiev, A.A. Kireev, tied to version of neoslavyanofily (new slavyanofily (N.P. Aksakov, D.A. Khomyakov and civilizational theory (L. Leontiev, N.I. Danilevsky tried synthesize Orthodoxy and nationalism in the spirit of religious interpretation of the nation and society. Secondly, with social theories of modern European socialism and positivism. (archimandrite Fedor (Bukharev, S.N. Bulgakov, archimandrite Michael (Semenov, and others.. Thirdly, with a modernist secularism (laicism and liberalism: P.V. Valuev, D.A. Tolstoy, K.P. Pobedonostsev. De-institutionalization of the Synodal Church took place in the following ways. In the period of early modernity (1700–1840, konfessionaliztion (die Konfessionalisierung, happened embedding religious institution in the state organism (nationalization on the practical and theoretical level. The evolution from the early modernity to late modernity (1830–1860 itself has raise the question of the "internal" secularization as activation of layman or parishioner. Theory A.S. Khomyakov (new criteria and the nature of the Church as a divine

  20. Examination of the Divergence in Trends for Adolescent Marijuana Use and Marijuana-Specific Risk Factors in Washington State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Charles B; Guttmannova, Katarina; Cambron, Christopher; Rhew, Isaac C; Oesterle, Sabrina

    2016-09-01

    As marijuana laws have become more permissive, survey data on adolescents in the United States have shown an increase in marijuana-specific risk factors, particularly in the proportion of youth who do not perceive marijuana use as harmful. Prevalence of marijuana use among youth, however, has changed little. Using representative data from Washington State, which has legalized medical and nonmedical marijuana for adults, we examined two competing hypotheses to account for this divergence in population trends. Data were from 2000 to 2014 biennial Washington State surveys of 10th-grade students. First, we assessed whether associations between marijuana use and marijuana-specific risk factors have weakened over time. Second, we examined whether decreases in alcohol and cigarette use can account for the lack of expected increase in marijuana use prevalence. Despite stability in marijuana use prevalence, there were increases in marijuana-specific risk factors of low perceived harm, youth favorable attitudes about use, and perceived community attitudes favorable to use. Associations between marijuana use and marijuana use predictors varied little across time; if anything, the positive association between low perceived harm and marijuana use grew stronger. Decreases in prevalence of alcohol and cigarette use largely accounted for stability in marijuana use during a period when marijuana risk factors increased. Decreases in other types of substance use or in the underlying, common risk for substance use may have mitigated effects of increases in marijuana-specific risk factors. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Precambrian crustal structure in Africa and Arabia : Evidence lacking for secular variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tugume, Fred; Nyblade, Andrew; Julia, Jordi; van der Meijde, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review the thickness and shear wave velocity structure of Precambrian crust in Africa and Arabia, where over 90% of the landmass is comprised of Archean and Proterozoic terranes, and examine the data for evidence of secular variation. The data come from many published 1D shear wave velocity

  2. Geomagnetic Core Field Secular Variation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillet, N.; Lesur, V.; Olsen, Nils

    2010-01-01

    We analyse models describing time changes of the Earth’s core magnetic field (secular variation) covering the historical period (several centuries) and the more recent satellite era (previous decade), and we illustrate how both the information contained in the data and the a priori information...... (regularisation) affect the result of the ill-posed geomagnetic inverse problem. We show how data quality, frequency and selection procedures govern part of the temporal changes in the secular variation norms and spectra, which are sometimes difficult to dissociate from true changes of the core state. We...... in artificial changes in the model norms and spectra. Model users should keep in mind that such features can be mis-interpreted as the signature of physical mechanisms (e.g. diffusion). Finally, we present perspectives concerning core field modelling: imposing dynamical constraints (e.g. by means of data...

  3. Pilgrimage as post-secular therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisbeth Mikaelsson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the institutionalized pilgrim role and then turns to the therapeutic discourse which is so prominent in the modern pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela. Both the role and the discourse can be related to the concept of post-secularity, demonstrating that complex cultural fields such as religion and therapy, become intertwined in new ways through modern pilgrimage. This article also shows that churches cooperating in this type of pilgrimage are adapting to the post-secular age, finding a new sort of raison d’être in a multi-religious, international world. Here the author refers to the Church of Norway and its role in Norwegian pilgrimage. The latter is modelled upon the Santiago example.

  4. Fuzzy Law and the Boundaries of Secularism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Menski

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The author delivered a speech at a Religare Conference. Showing his distaste for fuzzy law, he argues that "moderate secularism" is not merely another fuzzy concept, but it is "super-fuzzy", and that lawyers claiming to love certainty "have a tendency to sit in judgment over matters and even pre-judge things they know little about, including legal pluralism" leading to much irritation.

  5. Mercury's resonant rotation from secular orbital elements

    OpenAIRE

    Stark, Alexander; Oberst, Jürgen; Hussmann, Hauke

    2015-01-01

    We used recently produced Solar System ephemerides, which incorporate 2 years of ranging observations to the MESSENGER spacecraft, to extract the secular orbital elements for Mercury and associated uncertainties. As Mercury is in a stable 3:2 spin-orbit resonance, these values constitute an important reference for the planet’s measured rotational parameters, which in turn strongly bear on physical interpretation of Mercury’s interior structure. In particular, we derive a mean orbital period o...

  6. Secular stagnation and progressive economic policy alternatives

    OpenAIRE

    Onaran, Özlem

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes two main findings in the Post-Keynesian literature regarding the linkages between financialization, income distribution, accumulation and productivity. Firstly, at the core of secular stagnation lies the missing link between profits and investment. Secondly, rising inequality and financialization have been the main reasons for this missing link and hence the major brakes against capital accumulation and growth. The paper concludes with alternative progressive policies ba...

  7. Secular dynamics of multiplanetary circumbinary systems: stationary solutions and binary-planet secular resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade-Ines, Eduardo; Robutel, Philippe

    2018-01-01

    We present an analytical formalism to study the secular dynamics of a system consisting of N-2 planets orbiting a binary star in outer orbits. We introduce a canonical coordinate system and expand the disturbing function in terms of canonical elliptic elements, combining both Legendre polynomials and Laplace coefficients, to obtain a general formalism for the secular description of this type of configuration. With a quadratic approximation of the development, we present a simplified analytical solution for the planetary orbits for both the single planet and the two-planet cases. From the two-planet model, we show that the inner planet accelerates the precession rate of the binary pericenter, which, in turn, may enter in resonance with the secular frequency of the outer planet, characterizing a secular resonance. We calculate an analytical expression for the approximate location of this resonance and apply it to known circumbinary systems, where we show that it can occur at relatively close orbits, for example at 2.4 au for the Kepler-38 system. With a more refined model, we analyse the dynamics of this secular resonance and we show that a bifurcation of the corresponding fixed points can affect the long- term evolution and stability of planetary systems. By comparing our results with complete integrations of the exact equations of motion, we verified the accuracy of our analytical model.

  8. Kosovar Society through Secularism and Religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Dritero Arifi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper will analyze the importance and the effects of religion, in Kosovar society. A great part of the paper, will analyze the social and the political relations in Post-War Kosovo. Initially it will elaborate religion and secularism, especially in theoreticall aspect, what impact have these definitions in modern societies. In order to explain what the importance of the religion in Kosovo is, we will focus on analyzing ethnical, social and political relations within Kosovo society. A considerable component of the paper is also, the elaboration of secularism in Kosovo conditions. This implies that the formulation of the problem and the objective of this research, are the substance of the paper’s theme, which is, religion in Kosovo; its definition and the outlook of the Kosovar society on religion. Is Kosovo post-war society more or less religious? That means the elements of Religions and Secularism will be part of the analysis of developments in post-war Kosovo.

  9. On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

    2015-01-01

    SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

  10. On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

    2014-01-01

    Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3% to 14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14% to 20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Trends in oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery: examining the variable extent of impact on exposure of different drug classes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Darwich, Adam S; Henderson, Kathryn; Burgin, Angela; Ward, Nicola; Whittam, Janet; Ammori, Basil J; Ashcroft, Darren M; Rostami‐Hodjegan, Amin

    2012-01-01

    Changes to oral drug bioavailability have been observed post bariatric surgery. However, the magnitude and the direction of changes have not been assessed systematically to provide insights into the parameters governing the observed trends...

  12. Plate motion and the secular shift of the mean pole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H.; Carpenter, L.; Agreen, R. W.

    1973-01-01

    The global plate motion indicates that changes in the products of inertia of the earth due to tectonic plate movement may provide a secular shift of the mean pole. A mathematical procedure for calculating this shift based on the plate theory is presented. Explicit expressions were obtained for the dependence of the secular polar shift on the dimensions and locations of the plate boundaries. Numerical results show that the secular motion of the mean pole is 0.0002 sec/year in the direction of 67 W. Hence, it is deduced that the influence of the plate motion on the secular polar shift may account for 10% of the observed value.

  13. Teens and Their Parents in the 21st Century: An Examination of Trends in Teen Behavior and the Role of Parental Involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Council of Economic Advisers, Washington, DC.

    This report by the Council of Economic Advisers analyzes key trends in teen behavior, and investigates the role of parents' involvement in their teenagers' lives. The report uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a study of a nationally representative sample of seventh through twelfth graders, to examine the…

  14. Trends in Educational Inequality in Different Eras (1940-2010)--A Re-Examination of Opportunity Inequalities in Urban-Rural Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunling, Li

    2015-01-01

    Based on national sampling survey data from 2006, 2008, and 2011, the author uses the Mare educational transition model to systematically examine changing trends in inequalities in urban-rural educational opportunities at all educational stages from 1940 to 2010. Through a comparative analysis of five birth year groups, inequalities in urban-rural…

  15. geomagnetic secular variation and the 1969–1970 secular jerk at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    dynamo action within the fluid metallic outer core. Both these variations have been the subject of much investigation for quite some time and for good reasons. The long period internal/secular variations have been given much attention because of their importance in the study of the processes in the deep interior of the earth ...

  16. Geomagnetic secular variation and the 1969–1970 secular jerk at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The residuals in the geomagnetic field components are shown to exhibit parallelism with the periods corresponding to the double solar cycle only for some of the stations. A clear latitudinal distribution in the geomagnetic component that exhibits the 1969–70 secular jerk is shown. The jerk appears in the plots of the first ...

  17. Recent trends in the prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity in Korean adults: The Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1998 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Young Shin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Recent obesity studies have reported that the rising trend in obesity has stabilized or leveled off. Our study aimed to update estimates of the recent prevalence trend in obesity based on the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1998–2014. Methods: A total of 66,663 subjects were included and defined as being either underweight, overweight, or obese, in accordance with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m2 or lower, 23 kg/m2 or higher, and 25 kg/m2 or higher, respectively. Results: The prevalence of underweight in KNHANES I through VI surveys was 5.4%, 6.1%, 5.8%, 6.5%, 7.6%, and 7.5%, respectively, in men (p for trend = 0.04, β = 0.003 and 4.7%, 3.3%, 3.4%, 3.3%, 2.7%, and 2.6%, respectively, in women (p for trend = 0.03, β = −0.002. Also for KNHANES I through VI, the respective prevalence of overweight/obesity was 50.3%, 57.2%, 62.5%, 62.3%, 61.4%, and 61.3% in men (p for trend<0.01, β = 0.009 and 48.3%, 50.3%, 50.0%, 47.8%, 47.0%, and 45.3% in women (p for trend<0.01, β = −0.01, respectively. Conclusions: The obesity occurrence in men was trending upward with respect to overweight/obesity and for grade 1 and 2 obesity, but not for abdominal obesity. However, the obesity trends in women were leveling off from overweight/obesity, grade 1 obesity, and abdominal obesity measures. Further studies are required with data on muscle mass and adiposity for effective obesity control policies.

  18. Criticizing the Image of the Student as Consumer: Examining Legal Trends and Administrative Responses in the US and UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, Tim; Bickel, Robert R.; Birtwistle, Tim

    2006-01-01

    There is widespread concern that higher education is being compromised by being turned into a "commodity" to be "consumed". This article represents an initial attempt to explore the trends in both the UK and US, and considers how the law has responded to them. It argues, however, that there is an important distinction to be…

  19. An Examination of Temporal Trends in Electricity Reliability Based on Reports from U.S. Electric Utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi; Larsen, Peter; Todd, Annika; Fisher, Emily

    2012-01-06

    Since the 1960s, the U.S. electric power system has experienced a major blackout about once every 10 years. Each has been a vivid reminder of the importance society places on the continuous availability of electricity and has led to calls for changes to enhance reliability. At the root of these calls are judgments about what reliability is worth and how much should be paid to ensure it. In principle, comprehensive information on the actual reliability of the electric power system and on how proposed changes would affect reliability ought to help inform these judgments. Yet, comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system is lacking. This report helps to address this information gap by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on information reported by electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. Our research augments prior investigations, which focused only on power interruptions originating in the bulk power system, by considering interruptions originating both from the bulk power system and from within local distribution systems. Our research also accounts for differences among utility reliability reporting practices by employing statistical techniques that remove the influence of these differences on the trends that we identify. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. The questions analyzed include: 1. Are there trends in reported electricity reliability over time? 2. How are trends in reported electricity reliability affected by the installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system? 3. How are trends in reported electricity reliability affected by the use of IEEE Standard 1366-2003?

  20. A secular technetium–molybdenum generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Wagner L., E-mail: wagnerleite@ufmg.br; Campos, Tarcisio P.R., E-mail: tprcampos@pq.cnpq.br

    2015-05-11

    A compact secular molybdenium generator is subject of this paper. This generator represents a nuclear system that comprises a hydrogen-isotopes fusor, moderator, reflector and shield. Deuterium fusion reactions in a tritiated or deuterated target provide the neutron source. A moderation fluid slowdown the neutron energy which increases {sup 98}Mo(n,γ){sup 99}Mo capture reaction rates. Neutron reflection minimizes the neutron escape and the radiation shield encloses the device. The neutron yield calculation along with electromagnetic and nuclear simulations were addressed. Results revealed the accelerator equipotential surfaces ranging from −30 to 150 kV, the ion trajectories and the energy beam profile define a deuteron current of 1 A with energy of 180 keV at the target, the spatial distribution of the neutron flux, and the {sup 99}Mo and {sup 99m}Tc activities in function of transmuter operation time. The kinetics of the {sup 99m}Tc correlated to its precursor activity demonstrates a secular equilibrium providing 2 Ci in a operational time of 150 h. As conclusion, the investigated nuclear and electromagnetic features have demonstrated that such generator shall have a notable potential for feeding the {sup 99m}Tc clinical application.

  1. Opioid analgesics and heroin: Examining drug misuse trends among a sample of drug treatment clients in Kentucky.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victor, Grant A; Walker, Robert; Cole, Jennifer; Logan, T K

    2017-08-01

    In an effort to mitigate Kentucky's prescription drug misuse, legislative intervention efforts were introduced in 2012 and 2013 to better regulate pain clinics, prescribed use of opioid analgesics, and to expand the monitoring of opioid prescriptions. The focus of this paper is primarily on opioid analgesics and heroin and the relationship of use/misuse patterns of these drugs to state drug policy initiatives. A secondary data analysis of drug treatment clients (N=52,360) was conducted to project illicit drug use trends in Kentucky. This study describes temporal and geographic trends of self-reported illicit drug use among individuals in state-funded treatment in Kentucky between fiscal year 2010 and fiscal year 2013. Significant reductions in the prevalence of illicit opioid use, declined from fiscal year 2010 to fiscal year 2013 (popioids to heroin (popioid use, but heroin use has increased. One possible explanation for this relationship is that as prescription opioids became more difficult to obtain, users turned to heroin as a substitute. The finding of rising heroin use suggests a need for further policy initiatives to reduce heroin use, but the potential effectiveness of this policy remains unclear. Understanding trends may help to guide future policy efforts and pain management treatment strategies to where they might have their greatest impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. 77 ISLAMIC BANKING AND THE QUESTION OF SECULARISM IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HP

    employing largely Rajeev Dhawan's analysis of constitutional secularism, we found that secular life and religion are ... section 10 of the Nigerian. Constitution because it is not being financed directly or indirectly by the state funds. .... society is a complex system whose parts work together to promote solidarity and stability11.

  3. Social Boundaries and Secularism in the Lebanese Left

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugbølle, Sune

    2013-01-01

    along sectarian boundaries. Based on readings of debates about secularism in 1975 and 1976, the article proposes that the Left has since that year been forced to embrace secularism as its primary ideological marker. This experience in turn has become constitutive for what it means to be a leftist...

  4. Post-secular religious practices entering traditional religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urszula Pękala

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays we can observe complex interactions between the religious and secular spheres. Several different processes take place simultaneously: the traditionally religious elements function in the secular sphere as if they were part of secular culture; elements of the secular sphere build a specific kind of post-secular religiosity; finally, this post-secular religiosity influences traditional religions. This article focuses on the last stage of these changes. The author's purpose is to describe and interpret the practices we can observe. Because of the complexity of this issue, the analyses are limited to examples taken from the Catholic Church in Germany, where this process seems to be as popular as it is paradoxical. Catholicism realises that the post-secular forms of religiosity are very popular and that many people choose them instead of the traditional Church. It could offer them spirituality based on ages of experience. But instead of making its own spiritual tradition competitive on the spiritual market, Catholicism seems to offer Christianised post-secular goods, or its own traditional elements represented in a secularised form. It seems difficult to predict how it will all end. However, we observe an interesting encounter and interaction between an ‘old’ religion and a new religiosity, which will certainly have impact on further presence of the Church in the society.

  5. Unholy Trinity? Secularism Institute Renews Liberal Arts Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keysar, Ariela

    2010-01-01

    Secularism is controversial in today's political debates, championed by some and vilified by others. So when Trinity College in Hartford, Conn., opened a center for the study of secularism in September 2005, some people worried that it could become a source of friction on campus--yet another battleground in the culture wars that are wreaking havoc…

  6. The Other Partition: Religious and Secular Education in British Palestine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Suzanne

    2014-01-01

    The recent critical turn toward post-secularism, particularly on behalf of theorists working from the perspective of Christian societies, has highlighted the difficulty of approaching the history of the Middle East through the binary of religion and secularism. This article argues that such terms are of little explanatory value in and of…

  7. Secular tolerance? : Anti‐Muslim sentiment in Western Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ribberink, E.C.; Achterberg, P.H.J.; Houtman, D.

    2017-01-01

    he literature about secularization proposes two distinct explanations of anti-Muslim sentiment in secularized societies. The first theory understands it in terms of religious competition between Muslims and the remaining minority of orthodox Protestants; the second understands it as resulting from

  8. A Prospect of Secularization? Muslims and Political Power in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    political institutions after 1994, the party in power evicted all militant religious men from its party and from political positions after the year 2000. It only retained secular Muslims in its ranks. The text evaluates the impact of this change and raises the hypothesis of a consequent secularization of politics. Journal for Islamic ...

  9. The Jesuit Imaginary: Higher Education in a Secular Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrickson, Daniel Scott

    2012-01-01

    The philosopher Charles Taylor argues in "A Secular Age" (2007) that people who live in secular cultures are losing the capacity to experience genuine "fullness." Described by Taylor as a philosophical-anthropological conception of human flourishing that corresponds with existential senses of meaning and purpose, fullness is…

  10. Human Rights Education and the Post Secular Turn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowie, Bob

    2012-01-01

    This article questions whether human rights education (HRE) scholarship is responding adequately to the post secular turn in thinking about the place and nature of religion in society. Here the post secular turn is used to describe the discrediting of secularisation theory, the recognition of religion as an enduring and pervasive global cultural…

  11. Trends in serum lipids and hypertension prevalence among non-pregnant reproductive-age women: United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laz, Tabassum H; Rahman, Mahbubur; Berenson, Abbey B

    2013-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death among reproductive-age women. In this study, we examine trends in the prevalence of dyslipidemia, hypertension, and related clinicians' advice among reproductive-age women. We conducted trend analysis of these factors among non-pregnant women aged 20-49 years (n = 5,768) using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data obtained between 1999 and 2008. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression analyses were used to examine linear trends over a 10-year period after adjusting for covariates. A downward trend was observed for the proportion of women with abnormal levels of low density lipoprotein (LDL; P = 0.038) and high density lipoprotein (HDL; P = 0.008) cholesterol from 1999 to 2008. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in the prevalence of abnormal total cholesterol (P = 0.948) and triglyceride levels (P = 0.300), or hypertension (P = 0.632). Based on the self-reported data, upward trends were observed in the rates of cholesterol checking (P = 0.002), high cholesterol (P = 0.012), receiving clinicians' advice to use lipid-lowering agents (P < 0.001) and patients' compliance with their advice (P < 0.001). Although rates of self-reported hypertension did not change over time (P = 0.120), receiving clinicians' advice to use antihypertensive medications (P = 0.003) and patients' compliance with these medications (P = 0.015) also increased significantly. Overall improvements in LDL and HDL cholesterol over this time period could be due to increases in related awareness, receiving advice to use medications, and patients' compliance with this advice. Use of antihypertensive medication has also increased among reproductive-age women in the US.

  12. Trends in Serum Lipids and Hypertension Prevalence Among Non-Pregnant Reproductive-Age Women: United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mahbubur; Berenson, Abbey B.

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death among reproductive-age women. In this study, we examine trends in the prevalence of dyslipidemia, hypertension, and related clinicians’ advice among reproductive-age women. We conducted trend analysis of these factors among non-pregnant women aged 20–49 years (n = 5,768) using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data obtained between 1999 and 2008. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression analyses were used to examine linear trends over a 10-year period after adjusting for covariates. A downward trend was observed for the proportion of women with abnormal levels of low density lipoprotein (LDL; P = 0.038) and high density lipoprotein (HDL; P = 0.008) cholesterol from 1999 to 2008. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in the prevalence of abnormal total cholesterol (P = 0.948) and triglyceride levels (P = 0.300), or hypertension (P = 0.632). Based on the self-reported data, upward trends were observed in the rates of cholesterol checking (P = 0.002), high cholesterol (P = 0.012), receiving clinicians’ advice to use lipid-lowering agents (P < 0.001) and patients’ compliance with their advice (P < 0.001). Although rates of self-reported hypertension did not change over time (P = 0.120), receiving clinicians’ advice to use antihypertensive medications (P = 0.003) and patients’ compliance with these medications (P = 0.015) also increased significantly. Overall improvements in LDL and HDL cholesterol over this time period could be due to increases in related awareness, receiving advice to use medications, and patients’ compliance with this advice. Use of antihypertensive medication has also increased among reproductive-age women in the US. PMID:23054453

  13. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, Lars Ulrik; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette

    2000-01-01

    , systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population.......Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body...

  14. Validating the use of Medicare Australia billing data to examine trends in skin cancer [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eshini Perera

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background:  Epidemiological data surrounding non-melanomatous skin cancer (NMSC is highly variable, in part due to the lack of government cancer registries. Several studies employ the use of Medical Australia (MA rebate data in assessing such trends, the validity of which has not been studied in the past. Conversely, melanoma skin cancer is a notifiable disease, and thus, MA and cancer registry data is readily available. The aim of the current study is to assess the use of MA for epidemiological measures for skin cancers, by using melanoma as a disease sample.   Methods:  Following ethics approval, data from MA and Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR from 2004-2008 were extracted. Incidence of MA and VCR unique melanoma cases were compared and stratified by age and local government area (LGA. Regression and a paired-samples t-test were performed.   Results: During the study period; 15,150 and 13,886 unique melanoma patients were identified through VCR and MA data sources respectively. An outlier in the >80­ year age group was noted between MA and VCR data. When stratified by age, significant correlation between MA and VCR was observed for all patients (gradient 0.91, R²= 0.936 and following exclusion of >80 patients (gradient 0.96, R²= 0.995. When stratified by LGA, a high degree of observation was observed for all patients (gradient 0.94, R²= 0.977 and following exclusion of >80 patients (gradient 0.996, R²= 0.975.   Conclusion: Despite the inclusion of outlier data groups, acceptable correlation between MA and VCR melanoma data was observed, suggesting that MA may be suitable for assessing epidemiological trends. Such principals may be used to validate the use of MA data for similar calculations assessing NMSC trends.

  15. The relation between sexual behavior and religiosity subtypes: a test of the secularization hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Melissa A; Trapnell, Paul D; Meston, Cindy M

    2009-10-01

    Previous literature on religion and sexual behavior has focused on narrow definitions of religiosity, including religious affiliation, religious participation, or forms of religiousness (e.g., intrinsic religiosity). Trends toward more permissive premarital sexual activity in the North American Christian-Judeo religion support the secularization hypothesis of religion, which posits an increasing gap between religious doctrine and behavior. However, the recent rise of fundamentalist and new age religious movements calls for a reexamination of the current link between religion and sexual behavior. The use of dual definitions of religiosity, including religious affiliation and dimensional subtypes, may further characterize this link. The present cross-sectional study evaluated patterns of sexual behavior in a young adult sample (N = 1302, M age = 18.77 years) in the context of the secularization hypothesis using religious affiliation and a liberal-conservative continuum of religious subtypes: paranormal belief, spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, and fundamentalism. Results indicated few affiliation differences in sexual behavior in men or women. Sexual behaviors were statistically predicted by spirituality, fundamentalism, and paranormal belief, and the endorsement of fundamentalism in particular was correlated with lower levels of female sexual behavior. The secularization hypothesis was supported by consistent levels of sexual activity across affiliations and is contradicted by the differential impact of religiosity subtypes on sexual behavior. Findings suggested that the use of religious subtypes to evaluate religious differences, rather than solely affiliation, may yield useful insights into the link between religion and sexual behavior.

  16. Access to abortion and secular liberties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Arriada Lorea

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, facing an issue like abortion requires a secular perspective since the freedom of conscience assured by the Federal Constitution places upon the State the need to regard not only different viewpoints of different religions, but more specifically assure the right to diversity existing within a same religion, as well as the right to exercise different views from those of the hierarchy of his/her own religion. As such, there is no legal barrier for the decriminalization of abortion in the country. It is up to legislators to reform the present law and decriminalize abortion, assuming the commitments Brazil has assumed with international human-rights organizations, thus assuring the efficacy of civil liberties.

  17. Tendencia secular da amamentacao no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Isoyama Venancio

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Com o objetivo de documentar a tendência secular da amamentação no Brasil, foram reanalisadas as bases de dados de sete pesquisas nacionais realizadas de 1975 a 2008. Para obter dados comparáveis entre os diferentes inquéritos, foram analisadas as mesmas faixas etárias e indicadores, e utilizadas as mesmas técnicas estatísticas. A duração mediana da amamentação aumentou de 2,5 para 11,3 meses e a prevalência da amamentação exclusiva em menores de seis meses passou de 3,1% para 41,0% no período. Os resultados apontam importantes desafios no sentido de acelerar o ritmo de crescimento dessa prática no País, rumo às recomendações internacionais.

  18. Main field and recent secular variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alldredge, L.R.

    1983-01-01

    As Cain (1979) indicated might happen in the last IUGG quadrennial report, added resources were made available during the past few years and a real impulse was added to the geomagnetic work in the US by the launching of the MAGSAT Satellite. This new effort paid off in terms of new charts, additional long wavelength studies, and external source studies. As before, however, the future funding for new starts in geomagnetism does not look bright at the present time. A single MAGSAT in orbit a little more than seven months did wonders for main field (M.F.) charting, but did little or nothing for secular variation (S.V.) charting. It would take a number of repeated MAGSATS to help the S.V. picture. Meanwhile, the world magnetic observatory net and surface repeat stations remain as the main source of S.V. data. -from Author

  19. Public debt, secular stagnation and functional finance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Fiscal policy and public debt may be required to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. This conclusion emerges from a range of different models, including OLG specifications and stock-flow consistent (post-) Keynesian models. One of the determinants of the required long-run debt...... ratio is the rate of economic growth. Low growth leads to high debt, and empirical correlations between growth and debt may reflect this causal effect of growth on debt, rather than negative effects of debt on growth. A second result relates directly to austerity policies. The level of government...... consumption and the structure of taxation influence the required debt ratio and, paradoxically, austerity policies are counterproductive on their own terms: cuts in government consumption lead to an increase in the required level of debt....

  20. [Adolphe Quetelet and biopolitics as secularized theology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pich, Santiago

    2013-01-01

    The article recaptures the work of an author who has been forgotten by the contemporary social sciences, that is, the Belgium polymath Adolphe Quetelet. Focusing on his main work, Sur l'homme et le développement de ses facultés, ou Essai de physique sociale, the study underscores how the secularization of theological principles within the realm of science was important to the construction of Quetelet's work. His dual engagement in science and politics is pertinent here, as he was the main nineteenth-century force behind the incorporation of statistics as a science essential to the State's ability to govern its people. He also played a relevant role in the realization of the hegemonic political project of modernity, biopolitics, and its influence in the field of biomedicine in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

  1. The sacred, the secular, and the profane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsinovoi, Alexei

    2017-01-01

    In security studies, the dichotomy between ‘security’ and ‘regular’ politics has been effectively challenged in recent years, both theoretically and empirically. To address this challenge, the article develops Giorgio Agamben’s concepts of the sacred, the profane and the secular into three ideal......, Israel’s national security has been treated increasingly through the ‘regular’ rules of the market, while the market has been elevated beyond the ‘regular’ rules of politics. The article analyses how formerly separated domains merge, raising questions about what ‘regular’ politics is today, how...... types of power relations, which can provide a basis for critical re-formulation of the concepts of securitisation and desecuritisation. The article illustrates the analytical purchase of these ideal types through an analysis of the politics of Israel’s natural gas discoveries. Due to neoliberal reforms...

  2. Homeschooling, freedom of conscience, and the school as republican sanctuary : an analysis of arguments representing polar conceptions of the secular state and religious neutrality

    OpenAIRE

    Oh, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Oh, Paul. 2016. Homeschooling, freedom of conscience, and the school as republican sanctuary: An analysis of arguments representing polar conceptions of the secular state and religious neutrality. Master's Thesis in Educational Leadership. University of Jyväskylä. Department of Education. This paper examines how stances and understandings pertaining to the relation between home education and liberal democracy can depend on how one conceives normative roles of the secular state and the re...

  3. Sex differences in time trends of blood pressure among Swedish septuagenarians examined three decades apart: a longitudinal population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joas, Erik; Guo, Xinxin; Kern, Silke; Östling, Svante; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of birth cohort, sex and age on the trajectories of SBP and DBP in two birth cohorts of 70-year-olds, examined 3 decades apart and followed up at ages 75 and 79-80 years. Two population samples of 70-year-olds from Gothenburg, Sweden, were examined. The first, born in 1901-1902, was examined in 1971-1972 (n = 973). The second, born in 1930, was examined in 2000 (n = 509). Both samples were re-examined at ages 75 and 79-80 years. We found that SBP and DBP were considerably lower in septuagenarian men and women born 1930 compared with those born 1901-1902, also when adjusting for antihypertensive treatment in different ways. The decline was especially pronounced in women. Blood pressure was higher in women than in men in the 1970s, whereas there were no sex differences in the 2000s. The age-related decline in SBP started earlier and was more accentuated in those born in 1930 than in those born in 1901-1902. Blood pressure decreased, and the age-related decline in SBP started earlier in septuagenarians examined in the 2000s compared with those examined in the 1970s. The decrease was especially pronounced in women and diminished the sex differences. Antihypertensive treatment only partly explained our findings, suggesting that other mostly unknown factors played an important role.

  4. Secular resonance of asteroids and the second fundamental model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidlichovsky, M.

    1989-03-01

    A nonlinear theory of the secular resonance of asteroids has been developed, in which the problem is reduced to the second fundamental model of resonance. The position of the secular resonance surface for the nu6 resonance obtained from this theory is in good agreement with the results of Williams and Faulkner (1981). It is found that when the semimajor axis of the asteroid is in the range between 2 and 3.1 AU, the eccentricity increase due to secular resonance is at least that necessary for the Mars crosser.

  5. Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oyewale Mayowa Morakinyo

    Full Text Available Neonatal (NMR, infant (IMR and under-five (U5M mortality rates remain high in Nigeria. Evidence-based knowledge of trends and drivers of child mortality will aid proper interventions needed to combat the menace. Therefore, this study assessed the trends and drivers of NMR, IMR, and U5M over a decade in Nigeria. A nationally representative data from three consecutive Nigeria Demographic and Household Surveys (NDHS was used. A total of 66,158 live births within the five years preceding the 2003 (6029, 2008 (28647 and 2013 (31482 NDHS were included in the analyses. NMR was computed using proportions while IMR and U5 were computed using life table techniques embedded in Stata version 12. Probit regression model and its associated marginal effects were used to identify the predisposing factors to NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M per 1000 live births in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 52, 41, 39; 100, 75, 69; and 201, 157, 128 respectively. The NMR, IMR, and U5M were consistently lower among children whose mothers were younger, living in rural areas and from richer households. Generally, the probability of neonate death in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 0.049, 0.039 and 0.038 respectively, the probability of infant death was 0.093, 0.071 and 0.064 while the probability of under-five death was 0.140, 0.112 and 0.092 for the respective survey years. While adjusting for other variables, the likelihood of infant and under-five deaths was significantly reduced across the survey years. Maternal age, mothers' education, place of residence, child's sex, birth interval, weight at birth, skill of birth attendant, delivery by caesarean operation or not significantly influenced NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M in Nigeria reduced over the studied period. Multi-sectoral interventions targeted towards the identified drivers should be instituted to improve child survival.

  6. Gardens of stone: searching for evidence of secularization and acceptance of death in grave inscriptions from 1900-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Keith A; Sielski, Christine L; Miles, Elizabeth A; Dunfee, Alexis V

    2011-01-01

    From the magnificent to the mundane to the sublime, grave inscriptions serve as remembrances of the dead and provide concrete evidence of the thoughts and values of the day. In this study, 1,214 grave inscriptions (N = 1,214) dated 1900 to 2009 were examined for evidence of secularization and changes in attitude toward death. Using set criteria, the researchers categorized grave inscriptions in terms of language used (sacred/secular) and acceptance of death (acceptance/other). Binary logistic regression models revealed significantly more use of sacred language and significantly less acceptance of death over the past 110 years. Findings from these analyses suggest that: (a) secularization may not be as pervasive as thought, particularly with respect to death; and (b) as death has become increasingly medicalized and marginalized, society has grown less accepting of the finitude of life. These findings are further discussed in light of the continued evolution of death memorials.

  7. Evidence of Secular Changes in Physical Activity and Fitness, but Not Adiposity and Diet, in Welsh 12-13 Year Olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Non E.; Williams, D. R. R.; Rowe, David A.; Davies, Bruce; Baker, Julien S.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate secular trends in selected cardiovascular disease risk factors (namely adiposity, physical activity, physical fitness and diet) in a sample of Welsh 12-13 year olds between 2002 and 2007. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: A secondary school based in South West Wales. Method: Two studies in…

  8. Examining the Digital Divide in K-12 Public Schools: Four-Year Trends for Supporting ICT Literacy in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohlfeld, Tina N.; Ritzhaupt, Albert D.; Barron, Ann E.; Kemker, Kate

    2008-01-01

    While there is evidence that access to computers in schools has increased, there remain questions about whether low socio-economic status (SES) schools provide students with equitable supports for achieving information communication technology (ICT) literacy. This research first presents a theoretical model to examine the digital divide within…

  9. Trends in antihypertensive medication use and blood pressure control among United States adults with hypertension: the National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Qiuping; Burt, Vicki L; Dillon, Charles F; Yoon, Sarah

    2012-10-23

    The monitoring of national trends in hypertension treatment and control can provide important insight into the effectiveness of primary prevention efforts for cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study was to examine recent trends in antihypertensive medication use and its impact on blood pressure control among US adults with hypertension. A total of 9320 hypertensive people aged ≥18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001 to 2010 were included in this study. The prevalence of antihypertensive medication use increased from 63.5% in 2001 to 2002 to 77.3% in 2009 to 2010 (P(trend)<0.01). Most notably, there was a large increase in the use of multiple antihypertensive agents (from 36.8% to 47.7%, P(trend)<0.01). Overall, the use of thiazide diuretics, β-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and angiotensin receptor blockers increased by 23%, 57%, 31%, and 100%, respectively. In comparison with monotherapy, single-pill combinations and multiple-pill combinations were associated with 55% and 26% increased likelihoods of blood pressure control, respectively. By the 2009 to 2010 time period, 47% of all hypertensive people and 60% of treated hypertensive people had blood pressure controlled. However, higher treated but uncontrolled hypertension rates continued to persist among older Americans, non-Hispanic blacks, diabetic people, and those with chronic kidney disease. Also, Mexican Americans with hypertension were still less likely to take antihypertensive medication than non-Hispanic whites with hypertension. Antihypertensive medication use and blood pressure control among US adults with hypertension significantly increased over the past 10 years. Combination therapy regimens can facilitate achievement of blood pressure goals.

  10. An examination of trends in amount and type of cigarette advertising and sales promotions in California stores, 2002-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feighery, E C; Schleicher, N C; Boley Cruz, T; Unger, J B

    2008-04-01

    Cigarette companies spend more of their marketing dollars in stores than in any other venue. In 2005, they spent 88% of a total of $13.1 billion to advertise and promote product sales in stores. The purposes of this study were to identify how the amount and types of cigarette advertising and sales promotions have changed in stores in California between 2002 and 2005, and to assess neighbourhood influences on cigarette marketing in stores. Four observational assessments of cigarette advertising were conducted in approximately 600 California stores that sold cigarettes from 2002 to 2005. Trained observers collected data on the amount and type of cigarette advertising, including signs, product shelving and displays and functional items, and presence of sales promotions on these items. Longitudinal analyses were performed to estimate trends over time and identify correlates of change in the amount and type of tobacco advertising. The mean number of cigarette advertisements per store increased over time from 22.7 to 24.9. The percentage of stores with at least one advert for a sales promotion increased from 68% to 80%. The amount of advertising and proportion of stores with sales promotions increased more rapidly in stores situated in neighbourhoods with a higher proportion of African-Americans. The results indicate increasing use of stores to market and promote cigarette sales. Further, these increases are disproportionately accelerating in neighbourhoods with more African-Americans. Legislative strategies should be pursued to control the marketing of tobacco products and promotional strategies used to reduce prices in stores.

  11. Perceptions of dual identity and separate groups among secular and religious Israeli Jews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizman, A; Yinon, Y

    2000-10-01

    The authors examined the effects of perceptions of dual identity and separate groups on tendencies to handle intergroup conflict through problem solving and contention. Among secular Israeli Jews, regression analyses revealed a significant interaction between perceptions of dual identity and perceptions of separate groups: Only under high perception of dual identity was the perception of separate groups associated with contention. Among religious Israeli Jews, problem solving and contention were unrelated to either dual identity or to perceptions of separate groups. The results are discussed in terms of the common ingroup identity model (S. L. Gaertner, M. C. Rust, J. F. Dovidio, B. A. Bachman, & P. A. Anastasio, 1994) and in the context of the conflict between religious and secular Jews in Israel.

  12. Secular Volunteerism among Texan Emerging Adults: Exploring Pathways of Childhood and Adulthood Religiosity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reed T. DeAngelis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Prior research suggests that religiosity, especially public religious participation, is related to greater volunteerism. However, less is known about religious transmission across the life course, in particular whether and how religiosity in childhood is linked to later life volunteerism. This study investigates a sample of emerging adults in South Texas (n = 701 with a high percent of Hispanic Americans (53 percent. Specifically, we examine pathways of childhood and emerging adulthood religiosity leading to secular volunteerism. Findings indicate that both childhood and emerging adulthood religiosity are associated with greater volunteerism, but the effects of childhood religiosity on emerging adulthood volunteerism are mediated through emerging adulthood religiosity. These findings provide further confirmation of the importance of childhood religiosity only insofar as religiousness persists into adulthood. In other words, we find that it is emerging adulthood religiosity that transmits childhood religiosity into greater secular volunteerism in later life. Furthermore, emerging adulthood public religiosity has the most robust direct effects on volunteerism.

  13. Extracurricular activities and teens' alcohol use: The role of religious and secular sponsorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamczyk, Amy

    2012-03-01

    Much research has found that more religious youth are less likely to engage in riskier health-related behaviors. However, very little research has examined the role that religion may play in shaping the health-related behaviors of secular youth. There is reason to think that more and less religious youth may gain some health-related benefits from involvement with religious organizations through activities such as basketball and volunteering. Using two waves of data from the National Study of Youth and Religion, this study finds that involvement in religion-supported secular activities is associated with less alcohol use for all involved teens. The number of friends who belong to a religious youth group, in part, explains the relationship. Conversely, network overlap between parents and teens, the number of friends who drink or use drugs, and having an adult confidant from a religious group are not mechanisms that mediate the relationship. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Sex, secularism and religious influence in US politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Elizabeth; Jakobsen, Janet R

    2010-01-01

    Through an analysis of alliances between secular and religious actors in US politics and a specific case study on anti-trafficking policy, we show that the intertwining of religion and politics in the US comes from two sources: 1) the secular political and cultural institutions of American public life that have developed historically out of Protestantism, and which predominantly operate by presuming Protestant norms and values; and 2) the direct influence on US politics of religious groups and organisations, particularly in the past quarter-century of lobby groups and political action committees identified with conservative evangelical Christianity. The sources of policies that promote gender and sexual inequality in the US are both secular and religious and we conclude that it is inaccurate to assume that religious influence in politics is necessarily conservative or that more secular politics will necessarily be more progressive than the religious varieties.

  15. Dissent on Core Beliefs: Religious and Secular Perspectives ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Dissent on Core Beliefs: Religious and Secular Perspectives By Simone Chambers and Peter Nosco (Editors) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2015, 244 pages. ISBN 978-1-107-10152-4. Reviewer: Jaco Beyers, University of Pretoria ...

  16. Not Christian, but Nonetheless Qualified: The Secular Workplace - Whose Hardship?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gwendolyn Yvonne Alexis

    2015-01-01

    .... society the influx of immigrants from non-Christian, non-Western cultures. Focusing on the workplace, the author argues that non-Christian employees are at a disadvantage in the so-called secular U.S...

  17. Secular stagnation or stagnation policy? Steindl after summers

    OpenAIRE

    Hein, Eckhard

    2015-01-01

    The current debate on secular stagnation is suffering from some vagueness and several shortcomings. The same is true for the economic policy implications. Therefore, we provide an alternative view on stagnation tendencies based on Josef Steindl's contributions. In particular, Steindl (1952) can be viewed as a pioneering work in the area of stagnation in modern capitalism. We hold that this work is not prone to the problems detected in the current debate on secular stagnation: It does not rely...

  18. The role of collective effects and secular mass migration on galactic transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaolei; Buta, Ronald J.

    2015-03-01

    During the lifetime of a galaxy, secular radial mass redistribution is expected to gradually build up a bulge and transform the Hubble type from late to early. The dominant dynamical process responsible for this transformation is a collective instability mediated by density-wave collisionless shocks (Zhang 1996, 1998, 1999). The ability of this new mechanism to secularly redistribute the STELLAR mass provides a general pathway for the formation and evolution of the majority of Hubble types, ranging from late type disk galaxiess to disky ellipticals. ATLAS3D results (Cappellari et al. 2013) showed that spirals and S0s and disky ellipticals form a continuous trend of evolution which also coincides with the aging of the stellar population of galactic disks. The importance of stellar accretion is also revealed in the results of the COSMOS team which showed that the evolution of the black-hole-mass/bulge-mass correlation since z = 1 was mainly due to the mass redistribution on pre-existing STELLAR disks which were already in place by z = 1 (Cisternas et al. 2011). The weaker correlation between the masses of late-type bulges and AGNs observed at any given epoch in our view is a result of the quicker initial onset of accretion events in AGN disks compared to that in galactic disks, since the dynamical timescale is shorter for smaller AGN accretion disks. The same secular dynamical process can produce and maintain the well-known scaling relations and universal rotation curves of observed galaxies during their Hubble-type transformation (Zhang 2008), as well as reproduce many other observed structural and kinematic properties of galaxies such as the size-line-width relation of the interstellar medium and the age-velocity dispersion relation of solar neighborhood stars in our own Galaxy. A by-product of this analysis is a powerful new method for locating the multiple corotation resonances in galaxies (Zhang & Buta 2007; Buta & Zhang 2009). The current work also highlights

  19. Type 2 diabetes mellitus unawareness, prevalence, trends and risk factors: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nana; Yang, Xin; Zhu, Xiaolin; Zhao, Bin; Huang, Tianyi; Ji, Qiuhe

    2017-04-01

    Objectives To determine whether the associations with key risk factors in patients with diagnosed and undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are different using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2010. Methods The study analysed the prevalence and association with risk factors of undiagnosed and diagnosed T2DM using a regression model and a multinomial logistic regression model. Data from the NHANES 1999-2010 were used for the analyses. Results The study analysed data from 10 570 individuals. The overall prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed T2DM increased significantly from 1999 to 2010. The prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM was significantly higher in non-Hispanic whites, in individuals physical activity levels. Conclusion The overall T2DM prevalence increased between 1999 and 2010, particularly for undiagnosed T2DM in patients that were formerly classified as low risk.

  20. Constitutionalizing secularism, alternative secularisms or liberal-democratic constitutionalism? A critical reading of some Turkish, ECtHR and Indian Supreme Court cases on ‘secularism’

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bader, V.

    2010-01-01

    In recent debates on the constitutional status of 'secularism' we can discern three positions. The first tries to overcome the absence of 'secularism' in most liberal-democratic constitutions by developing a more robust theory of constitutional secularism. The second develops theories of

  1. Feminist Practice and Solidarity in Secular Societies : Case Studies on Feminists Crossing Religious–Secular Divides in Politics and Practice in Antwerp, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brandt, H.P.

    2015-01-01

    In west European countries, public debates on migration, integration, and diversity are informed by particular understandings of secularism and the secular society. In our increasingly diverse societies, so the story goes, it is needed to implement a certain type of secularism and/or support

  2. Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential and their implications for mantle viscosity and Antarctic melting history due to the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi

    2017-06-01

    Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential based on the satellite laser ranging observations, {\\dot{J}_n}, contain important information about the Earth's deformation due to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and recent melting of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Here, we examine the GIA-induced {\\dot{J}_n}, \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} (2 ≤ n ≤ 6), derived from the available geopotential zonal secular rate and recent melting taken from the IPCC 2013 Report (AR5) to explore the possibility of additional information on the depth-dependent lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model inferred from the analyses of the \\dot{J}_2^{GIA} and relative sea level changes. The sensitivities of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} to lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model with a global averaged eustatic sea level (ESL) of ∼130 m indicate that the secular rates for n = 3 and 4 are mainly caused by the viscous response of the lower mantle to the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet regardless of GIA ice models adopted in this study. Also, the analyses of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} based on the available geopotential zonal secular rates indicate that permissible lower-mantle viscosity structure satisfying even zonal secular rates of n = 2, 4 and 6 is obtained for the GIA ice model with an Antarctic ESL component of ∼20 or ∼30 m, but there is no viscosity solution satisfying \\dot{J}_3^{GIA} and \\dot{J}_5^{GIA} values. Moreover, the inference model for the lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model from each odd zonal secular rate is distinctly different from that satisfying GIA-induced even zonal secular rate. The discrepancy between the inference models for the even and odd zonal secular rates may partly be attributed to uncertainties of the geopotential zonal secular rates for n > 2 and particularly those for odd zonal secular rates due to weakness in the orbital geometry. If this problem is overcome at least for the secular rates of n < 5, then the analyses of

  3. Crossing the Sacred/Secular Divide; Unraveling Turkish Identities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morrow Lisa

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper unpacks the ideas in the poem “Pull Down My Statues” by Süleyman Apaydın, to examine some common descriptors in use about modern Turkey. Taking his inspiration from Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the modern Turkish republic, Apaydın ponders the success of Atatürk’s vision, based on the idea of a secular/sacred divide. Combining this with the way travel in Turkey is heavily promoted using the same themes, I explore how this divide, with its underlying connotations of West versus East and modernity versus tradition (as found in Turkey’s Ottoman past, is applied to Turkish identity. Turks are commonly portrayed as a homogenous people only differentiated by their degree of religiosity, but I argue that this analysis is too simplistic. Turkish identity has never been based on a single clear cut model, and this is becoming obvious as more traditional Islamic ways of life are being reworked by new forms of Islam based on capitalism. Consequently, although it is important to acknowledge Turkey’s past, looking to history for a way to steer through the complexities of the present is no longer useful or even relevant.

  4. The Post-Secular Transformation of the Relation between Religion and Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Miguel Gómez Rincón

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the idea of a direct link between modernization and the loss of plausibility of religious belief, explores the contemporary image of the relation between religion and rationality, and shows why it is not possible to say that the advance of science leads to secularization. In view of the question regarding whether postsecularization entails the mutual exclusion of religion and rationality, it examines the proposals of J. Habermas and N. Wolterstorff, in a search for normative criteria for the dialogue between religious and non-religious rationalities.

  5. Secular Gravitational Instability of a Dust Layer in Shear Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michikoshi, Shugo; Kokubo, Eiichiro; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro

    2012-02-01

    We perform a linear stability analysis of a dust layer in a turbulent gas disk. Youdin investigated the secular gravitational instability (GI) of a dust layer using hydrodynamic equations with a turbulent diffusion term. We obtain essentially the same result independently of Youdin. In the present analysis, we restrict the area of interest to small dust particles, while investigating the secular GI in a more rigorous manner. We discuss the time evolution of the dust surface density distribution using a stochastic model and derive the advection-diffusion equation. The validity of the analysis by Youdin is confirmed in the strong drag limit. We demonstrate quantitatively that the finite thickness of a dust layer weakens the secular GI and that the density-dependent diffusion coefficient changes the growth rate. We apply the results obtained to the turbulence driven by the shear instability and find that the secular GI is faster than the radial drift when the gas density is three times as large as that in the minimum-mass disk model. If the dust particles are larger than chondrules, the secular GI grows within the lifetime of a protoplanetary disk.

  6. Secular changes and predictors of adult height for 86 105 male and female members of the Thai Cohort Study born between 1940 and 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Susan; Lim, Lynette; Seubsman, Sam-Ang; Bain, Christopher; Sleigh, Adrian

    2012-01-01

    Height trends can be useful indicators of population health but, despite Thailand's rapid socioeconomic development since the 1950s, few studies have examined accompanying secular changes in adult height or the effects of the transition on the heights of rural versus urban populations. This study therefore sought to document average heights in different age groups of rural and urban Thais and to investigate factors associated with attained height. Data from 86,105 Thai Cohort Study participants was used to estimate mean heights for men and women in different birth year groups. Simple regression was used to calculate the change in height per decade of birth year among those based in rural or urban locations as children. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate effects of other childhood factors on height. Overall, average heights were found to have increased by approximately 1 cm per decade in those born between 1940 and 1990. However, the rate of increase was 0.4-0.5 cm per decade greater among urban-based Thais compared with those from the countryside. Parental education levels, household assets, birth size, sibling number, birth rank and region of residence were also significantly associated with adult height. These data suggest a marked secular increase in Thai heights in the second half of the 20th century probably reflecting improved childhood health and nutrition over this time. Rural-born Thais, who benefited to a lesser extent from the changes, may face future health challenges with greater risks of, among other things, obesity and its health consequences.

  7. The practice of mindfulness: from Buddhism to secular mainstream in a post-secular society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liselotte Frisk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the practice of mindfulness, which has migrated from being part of a religion, Buddhism, to being an integral part of Western psychology. Mindfulness is especially used in cognitive behavioural therapy, but also in, e.g., dialectical behavioural therapy (DBT and acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT. In Sweden several doctors, psychologists and psychiatrists use and recommend mindfulness for therapeutic purposes. Mindfulness is used today in many segments of mainstream medical and therapeutic care. Mindfulness is also used outside the mainstream medical and therapeutic sector, in the area of personal development or spirituality, as well as in more traditional Buddhist groups and innovative Buddhist groups such as vipassana groups. This paper investigates the migration of mindfulness from a religious to a secular sphere, and discusses whether mindfulness is a religious practice or not.

  8. Ten-year trends in antiretroviral therapy persistence among US Medicaid beneficiaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, Bora; Shireman, Theresa I; Lee, Yoojin; Galárraga, Omar; Rana, Aadia I; Justice, Amy C; Wilson, Ira B

    2017-07-31

    Whether the rate of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) persistence has improved over time in the United States is unknown. We examined ART persistence trends between 2001 and 2010, using non-HIV medications as a comparator. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Medicaid claims. We defined persistence as the duration of treatment from the first to the last fill date before a 90-day permissible gap and used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to assess crude and adjusted nonpersistence. The secular trends of ART persistence in 43 598 HIV patients were compared with the secular trends of persistence with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB), statins, and metformin in non-HIV-infected patients and subgroups of HIV patients who started these control medications while using ART. Median time to ART nonpersistence increased from 23.9 months in 2001-2003 to 35.4 months in 2004-2006 and was not reached for those starting ART in 2007-2010. In adjusted models, ART initiators in 2007-2010 had 11% decreased hazard of nonpersistence compared with those who initiated in 2001-2003 (P negative controls.

  9. Trends in child sexual abuse cases referred for forensic examination in Southern Denmark from 2000 to 2011-Did the 'Tonder-case' have an impact?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovmand, S.; Astrup, B. S.

    2015-01-01

    In 2005 a serious case of child sexual abuse from the region of Southern Denmark was revealed to the Danish public. The case became known as the 'Tonder-case'. It was the first in a series of 4-5 serious cases of child maltreatment in Denmark, cases which spurred heavy public debate. In this study...... all the cases of child sexual abuse referred for forensic examination in a 12 year period, a total of 368 cases, were systematically evaluated. In order to identify any trends that could be correlated to an impact of the 'Tonder-case', cases from 2000 to 2002 and cases from 2009 to 2011 underwent...... an in-depth analysis. In the 12 year period there was a significant increase in numbers of cases. In the subgroups, comprised of 113 cases meeting the inclusion criteria, we found a significant increase in the frequency of cases involving incest and systematic abuse, as well as an uncorrelated increase...

  10. Evolução de condicionantes socioeconômicas da saúde na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in socioeconomic determinants of child health in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a evolução de condicionantes socioeconômicas da saúde na infância, com base nas informações extraídas de dois inquéritos domiciliares realizados nos anos de 1984/85 e 1995/96, na cidade de São Paulo, SP. MÉTODOS: Foram estudadas amostras probabilísticas da população entre zero e 59 meses de idade: 1.016 crianças em 1984/85 e 1.280 crianças em 1995/96. Os inquéritos apuraram a renda per capita mensal das famílias e o número de anos de escolaridade das mães das crianças. As rendas nominais foram deflacionadas segundo o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor e expressas em valores de outubro de 1996. RESULTADOS: Embora os indicadores socioeconômicos apurados no último inquérito ainda estejam muito distantes da situação ideal, a média da renda familiar dobra entre os inquéritos e a escolaridade materna aumenta em 1,5 anos. Rendas inferiores a meio salário-mínimo per capita são reduzidas à metade e virtualmente desaparece o analfabetismo materno. Ainda assim, intensifica-se no período a concentração da renda. CONCLUSÕES: Os aumentos de renda e de escolaridade são superiores aos relatados para a população brasileira em geral, o que poderia decorrer de declínios seletivos da fecundidade nos estratos mais pobres da população de São Paulo. A influência das mudanças na renda familiar e na escolaridade materna sobre a evolução de diferentes indicadores do estado de saúde das crianças da cidade é examinada em artigos subseqüentes.OBJECTIVE: Two consecutive household surveys undertaken in the mid-80s and mid-90s in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil, made possible to establish time trends of several child health determinants and indicators as well as to analyse the relationships among them. The study intends to report trends in socioeconomic determinants of child health. METHODS: Random samples of the population aged from zero to 59 months were studied: 1,016 children in the period 1984

  11. The Shi'ites, the West and the Future of Democracy: Reframing Political Change in a Religio-secular World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Rees

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The present article critically reviews Paul McGeough’s important analysis of the most recent Iraq war within a broader consideration of secular-religious relations in international affairs. The thesis of Mission Impossible: The Sheikhs, the US and the Future of Iraq (2004 can be summarised around two ideas: that the US strategy in Iraq was flawed because it wilfully bypassed the traditional power structures of Iraqi society; and that these structures, formed around the tribe and the mosque, are anti-democratic thus rendering attempts at democratisation impossible. The article affirms McGeough’s argument concerning the inadequacy of the US strategy, but critically examines the author’s fatalism toward the democratic capacity of Iraqi structures, notably the structure of the mosque. By broadening the notion of democracy to include religious actors and agendas, and by an introductory interpretation of the Shi’ite community as vital players in an emerging Iraqi democracy, the article attempts to deconstruct the author’s secularist view that the world of the mosque exists in a ‘parallel universe’ to the liberal democratic West. Reframing the Shi’ites as essential actors in the democratic project thus situates political discourse in a ‘religio-secular world’ and brings the ‘other worlds’ of religion and secularism together in a sphere of interdependence. Such an approach emphasises the importance of post-secular structures in the discourses on democratic change.

  12. Evolução de condicionantes ambientais da saúde na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in environmental determinants of child health in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    influência que mudanças em condições ambientais podem ter exercido sobre a evolução de diferentes indicadores do estado de saúde das crianças da cidade é examinada em artigos subseqüentes.OBJECTIVE: Two consecutive household surveys undertaken in mid-80s and mid-90s in the city of S. Paulo Brazil, made possible to establish time trends of several child health determinants and indicators as well as to analyse the relationships among them. The study intends to report trends in environmental determinants of child health. METHODS: Random samples of the population aged from zero to 59 months were studied: 1,016 children in the period of 1984-85 and 1,280 children in 1995-96. Both surveys investigated several housing characteristics -- materials used in the building, size, occupation density, existence of shower, toilet, running water in the kitchen, and the presence of smoker dwellers -- as well as access to water supply, sewage, garbage disposal and pavement of public areas. RESULTS: Improvements from mid-80s to mid-90s are observed regarding both housing characteristics and the implementation of basic services public services. The only indicator showing no improvement was the proportion of children living in slums, near 12% in both surveys. However, housing characteristics in slums showed an impressive improvement in the period between the surveys as well as the access of this population to water supply and garbage disposal services. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in housing characteristics are consistent with increases in the purchasing power reported in the same period. The expansion of public basic services resulted from both public investments and a significant reduction in population growth. The noticeable increase in the coverage of water supply and garbage disposal in the slums indicates a more equitable delivery of the basic services. The same trend was not seen regarding sewage and street paving, which are not widespread in slum areas. The influence that

  13. Secular variation curves of Mexico, progress, problems and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler-Arechalde, A. M.

    2013-05-01

    Three cases of secular variation of Mexico will be analyzed. The first is the preliminary results of the record of the transition Bruhnes-Matuyama in a paleosol sequence. The second is the research of a rock shelter since late Pliocene-early Holocene to Posclassic (AD 900-1527). Finally the improvement of the first archaeomagnetic secular variation curve of Mesoamerica from 1973 to 2012 with the inclusion of new results like La Ciudadela and Teopancazco of Teotihuacan, Tlatelolco and Templo Mayor of Mexico City and Tula. Our results will be compared with previous records from lake sediments and volcanic rocks, the models available like CALS*K or other published curves.

  14. The conditions of believe and unbelieve in a secular Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Cincunegui

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In A Secular Age the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor offered an analytical description and a genealogy of the current conditions of belief and unbelief in the North Atlantic contemporary societies. He encouraged as well a set of similar investigations in other cultural settings that are affected by the processes of modernization. He argues about the existence of ‘alternative modernities’ each one of them facing critically the univocal sociological theories of modernity and secularization that interpreted as universal the process of disenchantment occurred in the West and the setbacks with regard to the presence of religion in the public sphere and religious practice in some contemporary Western societies

  15. Approximate State Transition Matrix and Secular Orbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Ramachandran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The state transition matrix (STM is a part of the onboard orbit determination system. It is used to control the satellite’s orbital motion to a predefined reference orbit. Firstly in this paper a simple orbit model that captures the secular behavior of the orbital motion in the presence of all perturbation forces is derived. Next, an approximate STM to match the secular effects in the orbit due to oblate earth effect and later in the presence of all perturbation forces is derived. Numerical experiments are provided for illustration.

  16. Is there a secular decline in motor skills in preschool children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, K; Ruf, K; Obinger, M; Mauer, S; Ahnert, J; Schneider, W; Graf, C; Hebestreit, H

    2010-08-01

    Current research seems to confirm a secular decline in movement skills in school children. Only few data are available for preschool children and no clear trend can be identified. In the year 2007, height, weight, and motor performance were determined in 726 preschool children [Prevention through Activity in Kindergarten Trial (PAKT)] and compared with historical samples from 1973, 1985, and 1989. There was no difference in height and weight between the samples of 1973 and 2007. Older boys of today were smaller and lighter than those of 1989. Regardless of age, PAKT children fared significantly better in standing long jump than those assessed in 1989. Compared with the sample of 1973, PAKT children did equally well in this task. There were no differences in performance in an obstacle course between children of 1989 and 2007. In balancing backwards, PAKT children performed significantly worse than those in 1985. Regarding target throwing only the PAKT 4-year-olds achieved significantly worse results than those in 1985.Therefore, in preschool children, a secular decline is only evident in some, but not all, motor skills, which may indicate a change in behavior activity over the last decades.

  17. The secular and the supernatural: madness and psychiatry in the short stories of Muriel Spark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beveridge, A W

    2015-01-01

    Edinburgh-born Muriel Spark is one of modern Scotland's greatest writers. Examination of her work reveals that the subjects of madness and psychiatry are recurrent themes in her writing. She herself had a mental breakdown when she was a young woman and she took an interest in the world of psychiatry and psychoanalysis. In her short stories, Spark approaches the subject of madness in a variety of ways: she relates it to the supernatural; to writing fiction; and to religion. She frequently juxtaposes secular and supernatural explanations of mental disturbance. Spark adopts a sceptical and, at times, mocking view of psychiatrists and psychiatric treatment. Both psychoanalysis and pills are seen as problematic.

  18. Trends in BMI among Belgian children, adolescents and adults from 1969 to 1996.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulens, M; Beunen, G; Claessens, A L; Lefevre, J; Thomis, M; Philippaerts, R; Borms, J; Vrijens, J; Lysens, R; Vansant, G

    2001-03-01

    To document secular data on changes in the distribution of body mass index (BMI), to determine the probability of overweight at 40 y of age in Belgian males in relation to the presence or absence of overweight at different ages in adolescence, and to estimate tracking of BMI in Belgian males in Belgium aged 12-40 y. Cross-sectional and mixed longitudinal surveys in nationally representative samples of Belgian males and females. Cross-sectional-more than 21 000 boys and 9698 girls; to examine secular trends-3164 boys and 5140 girls; to examine tracking-161 males. Body mass and height to determine BMI. In Belgian children the degree of overweight has increased between 1969 and 1993. Tracking of BMI is high in adolescence (r=0.77) and adulthood (r=0.69-0.91) and moderate from adolescence to adulthood (r=0.49). In Belgian males, the probability of overweight at 40 y of age in the presence of overweight at different ages in adolescence is important (odds ratios 5.0-6.9). Cross-sectional and longitudinal data, trends and tracking of BMI from 1969 until 1996 in Belgium indicate an increase in the degree of childhood overweight and obesity. Moreover, the risk of an overweight male adolescent becoming an overweight adult is substantial. Measures to restrict the Belgian overweight and obesity epidemic should be taken.

  19. Moderately eccentric warm Jupiters from secular interactions with exterior companions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Kassandra R.; Lai, Dong

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have proposed that most warm Jupiters (WJs, giant planets with semi-major axes in the range of 0.1-1 AU) probably form in-situ, or arrive in their observed orbits through disk migration. However, both in-situ formation and disk migration, in their simplest flavors, predict WJs to be in low-eccentricity orbits, in contradiction with many observed WJs that are moderately eccentric (e=0.2-0.7). This paper examines the possibility that the WJ eccentricities are raised by secular interactions with exterior giant planet companions, following in-situ formation or migration on a circular orbit. Eccentricity growth may arise from an inclined companion (through Lidov-Kozai cycles), or from an eccentric, nearly coplanar companion (through apsidal precession resonances). We quantify the necessary conditions (in terms of the eccentricity, semi-major axis and inclination) for external perturbers of various masses to raise the WJ eccentricity. We also consider the sample of eccentric WJs with detected outer companions, and for each system, identify the range of mutual inclinations needed to generate the observed eccentricity. For most systems, we find that relatively high inclinations (at least $\\sim 40^\\circ$) are needed so that Lidov-Kozai cycles are induced; the observed outer companions are typically not sufficiently eccentric to generate the observed WJ eccentricity in a low-inclination configuration. The results of this paper place constraints on possibly unseen external companions to eccentric WJs. Observations that probe mutual inclinations of giant planet systems will help clarify the origin of eccentric WJs and the role of external companions.

  20. Secular Increase of the Astronomical Unit: a Possible Explanation in Terms of the Total Angular-Momentum Conservation Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Takaho; Arakida, Hideyoshi; Kasai, Masumi; Kuramata, Shuichi

    2009-12-01

    We give an idea and order-of-magnitude estimations to explain a recently reported secular increase of the Astronomical Unit (AU) by Krasinsky and Brumberg (Krasinsky & Brumberg 2004, Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron., 90, 267). The idea proposed is analogous to tidal acceleration in the Earth-Moon system, which is based on conservation of the total angular momentum; we apply this scenario to the Sun-planets system. Assuming the existence of some tidal interactions that transfer the rotational angular momentum of the Sun, and using a reported value of the positive secular trend in the Astronomical Unit, frac{d}{dt}AU = 15±4 (m cy-1), the suggested change in the period of rotation of the Sun is about 21 ms cy-1 in the case that the orbits of the eight planets have the same ``expansion rate.'' This value is sufficiently small, and at present it seems there are no observational data that exclude this possibility. The effects of a change in the Sun's moment of inertia is also investigated. It is pointed out that a change in the moment of inertia due to radiative mass loss by the Sun may be responsible for the secular increase of AU, if orbital ``expansion'' is happening only in the inner-planets system. Although the existence of some tidal interactions is assumed between the Sun and the planets, concrete mechanisms of angular-momentum transfer are not discussed in this paper, which remain to be pursued as future investigations.

  1. Salt extraction by the Solovetsky monastery on the eve of the 1764 secularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. BOGDANOVA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the circumstances ofthe Solovetsky monastery salt production at the eve of the secularization that took place in 1764. The Author’s goal is to examine the economic value of the Solovetsky monastery salt production at the time of its lost as a result of the secularization reform. This examination was based on the study of the archival documents. Therefore the following issues were considered: (1 the structure of the salt business in Russia in the 18th century; (2 the value of the Pomorian salt in the all-Russian salt market in the middle of the 18th century; (3 the value of the Solovetsky monastery salt production share in the all-Russian Pomorian salt delivery; (4 estimation of the volume and profitability of the salt business for the Solovetsky monastery at the eve of 1764. The analysis shows a significant market decline of the Pomorian salt in the 18th century, about half of which was the salt produced by the Solovetsky monastery. First of all it was caused by the appearance of a significant number of competing salt manufacturers with lower salt costs œming from cheaper primecost and cheaper delivery. In particular the market of Vologda, formerly the largest place for Solovetsky salt sales was fully occupied by other suppliers by the middle of the 18th century. The overall Solovetsky monastery’s salt production shrinked to a half of its middle of the 17th century value. By the time of secularization reform the salt production was not earing significant profit to the Solovetsky monastery. Under the strong state monopoly the salt business transformed into a labor-consuming national service obligation. Bereaved of the land estates together with its salt mines the Solovetsky monastery was also set free from a hard economical obligation.

  2. Mapping geomagnetic secular variation at the core-mantle boundary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, R.; Olsen, Nils; Bairstow, F. L.

    2011-01-01

    Data from recent satellite missions have vastly increased the resolution of models of the geomagnetic field, and its first and second time derivatives – secular variation (SV) and secular acceleration (SA). The spectra of both SV and SA are ‘blue’ at the core–mantle boundary, both well-fit by fun...... core–mantle coupling than by electromagnetic screening. Comparison with maps from measurements prior to the recent satellites, using the ‘Comprehensive Model’, suggests that models back to at least 1970 are sufficiently good to enable direct comparison of the SV.......Data from recent satellite missions have vastly increased the resolution of models of the geomagnetic field, and its first and second time derivatives – secular variation (SV) and secular acceleration (SA). The spectra of both SV and SA are ‘blue’ at the core–mantle boundary, both well......-fit by functions proportional to l(l + 1) where l is the spherical harmonic degree. The ratio of the two spectra defines a timescale for geomagnetic variations of approximately 10 yrs for all resolvable harmonic degrees. The blue spectra should prevent meaningful maps of the SV being generated; nevertheless...

  3. Blasphemy in a secular state: some reflections | Fikre | Mizan Law ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... prohibition of hate speech rather than laws of blasphemy. This relocates the role of the state to its proper perspective in the context of its role in promoting interfaith dialogue, harmony and tolerance. Keywords: Blasphemy, Secular, Human Rights, Freedom of Expression, Defamation of Religion MIZAN LAW REVIEW Vol.

  4. Post-Secularism, Religious Knowledge and Religious Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, David

    2012-01-01

    Post-secularism seems to follow in the wake of other (what are here called) "postal" perspectives--post-structuralism, postmodernism, post-empiricism, post-positivism, post-analytical philosophy, post-foundationalism and so on--in questioning or repudiating what it takes to be the epistemic assumptions of "modernism." To be sure, post-secularism…

  5. Ratio of secularization and modernization: statement of the problem

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    Yuliia Y. Medviedieva

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In the article the problem of balance of secularization and modernization. Desecration of religion, according to the author, is the main element of the modernization project, the result of which is the spread of secular rationality of theoretical knowledge in social technologies and social-regulatory system, in particular – to the legal system, constitution, democracy, civil society, human rights, etc.., corresponding neoteologie scientism as a strategy to modernize the traditional society through scientific knowledge in the context of desecration of religious ethics and decomposition of the institutional framework in the form of the Catholic church. Along with modernization discourse scientistic interpretation neoteologie formed other uses of implicit clerical discourse for direct or indirect formulation of alternative programs kontrmodernizatsiyi that somehow is connected with the (partial or complete reproduction sakralizovanosti traditional society in pagan religions. Here it is, in particular, antropolatrychni cult heroes in the ideologies of fascism and communism, which, against the desecration of Christianity can be called kontrmodernizatsiynymy resakralizatsiyamy paganism. These versions religions and ideologies emphasizing certain elements of social modernization in in their scenarios introduced in the social context of the facade features of modern society, which is protected traditional society. The whole range of projects kontrmodernizatsiyi, despite his claims to be a continuation of the ideology of the Enlightenment and bourgeois conformity formal features, compared to secular programs becomes a substitute of neomessianic eschatology genetically going to marginalized social movements in Europe that have evolved in parallel with secularization.

  6. Challenges to Secular Movements in the Middle East: A Comparison ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Political parties are a central feature of democracy. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), however, political parties played a very minor role in the push toward democracy. This project aims to help advance multi-party democratic systems in the region where Islamic and secular political parties can compete through ...

  7. Managing Mosques in the Netherlands : Constitutional versus Culturalist Secularism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkaaik, Oskar; Tamimi Arab, P.

    2016-01-01

    This article engages with the emergent ethnographical study of secular practice by focusing on how local bureaucracies manage the Muslim public presence in the Netherlands, particularly the construction of new mosques and the amplifying of the Muslim call to prayer. We argue that what started as the

  8. Sex, Status, and Sand: California Academy of Sciences' Teen Interns Examine Trends of the Pacific Mole Crab (Emerita analoga) at Ocean Beach, San Francisco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, J. B.; Conrad-Saydah, A.; Cohen, S.; Tom, R.; Robins-Moloney, M.; Masters, D.; Mason, K.; Alfaro, F.

    2003-12-01

    Student interns from the California Academy of Sciences' Careers in Sciences program monitored the Pacific mole crab (Emerita analoga), or sand crabs, in collaboration with the Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association. These small crustaceans live in the swash zone of the sandy beach habitat. Sand crabs are important in the food web, and therefore their status can help indicate the health of the larger environment. The interns helped the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary by monitoring the abundance and distribution of sand crabs at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California. Students set up transects perpendicular to the shoreline, collected 10 samples along the transect, measured the carapace length, determined the sex of each crab, and checked for the presence of eggs. Students monitored June through September, 2003. Trends examined included differences in the gender ratio, size frequency, and distribution along the beach. Students also compared their data to other student data taken from other sites in San Francisco and Marin counties during 2001-2003 from the online database at http://www.sandcrabs.org. Using comparisons, interns were able to better understand the processes and significance of studying marine species. Implementation of the project was invaluable in aiding the interns in their understanding of the natural sciences and the role of monitoring habitats in environmental health.

  9. Analysis of Kimchi, vegetable and fruit consumption trends among Korean adults: data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1998-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eun-Kyung; Ha, Ae-Wha; Choi, Eun-Ok; Ju, Se-Young

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze daily kimchi, vegetable and fruit consumption by general characteristics and vegetable and fruit consumption from 1998 to 2012 by the Korean population based on the data of the KNHANES (Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey). This study is based on the 1998-2012 KNHNES. Analysis data on 54,700 subjects aged 19 years and older were obtained from health behavior interviews and the 24-hour dietary recall method. Daily kimchi consumption and portion size of kimchi decreased significantly from 1998 to 2012 (adjusted P for trend kimchi did not significantly change between 1998 and 2012. Reduced consumption of kimchi, non-salted vegetable, and fruit was observed for both genders as well as daily meal episodes and cooking locations. Male and female subjects with insufficient non-salted vegetable and fruit intake were increased 1.4 times and 1.3 times, respectively, in 2012 than 1998. All subjects consumed at least 400 g/day of non-salted vegetable, fruit, and kimchi in each survey year, although they consumed insufficient amounts (kimchi. Since Koreans generally consume high amounts of fermented vegetables, including kimchi, total vegetables and fruit. Consumption of these foods by the Korean adult population reached 400 g, which is the recommended intake of the WCRF/AICR. Based on this result, it is necessary to promote consumption of kimchi in the Korean population and research the development of low sodium kimchi in the future.

  10. An examination of injection drug use trends in Victoria and Vancouver, BC after the closure of Victoria's only fixed-site needle and syringe programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivsins, Andrew; Chow, Clifton; Macdonald, Scott; Stockwell, Tim; Vallance, Kate; Marsh, David C; Michelow, Warren; Duff, Cameron

    2012-07-01

    Needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) have been established as effective harm reduction initiatives to reduce injection drug use (IDU)-related risk behaviours, including sharing needles. On May 31, 2008, Victoria, BC's only fixed site NSP was shut down due to community and political pressure. This study examines and compares IDU trends in Victoria with those in Vancouver, BC, a city which has not experienced any similar disruption of IDU-related public health measures. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected by interviewer-administered questionnaires conducted with injection drug users (n=579) in Victoria and Vancouver between late 2007 and late 2010. Needle sharing increased in Victoria from under 10% in early 2008 to 20% in late 2010, whilst rates remained relatively low in Vancouver. Participants in Victoria were significantly more likely to share needles than participants in Vancouver. Qualitative data collected in Victoria highlight the difficulty participants have experienced obtaining clean needles since the NSP closed. Recent injection of crack cocaine was independently associated with needle sharing. The closure of Victoria's fixed site NSP has likely resulted in increased engagement in high-risk behaviours, specifically needle sharing. Our findings highlight the contribution of NSPs as an essential public health measure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. [Prevalence and temporal trend of known diabetes mellitus: results of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS1)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidemann, C; Du, Y; Schubert, I; Rathmann, W; Scheidt-Nave, C

    2013-05-01

    The first wave of the "German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults" (DEGS1, 2008-2011) allows for up-to-date, representative prevalence estimates of known diabetes amongst the 18- to 79-year-old resident population of Germany. Temporal trends can be shown by comparing the survey findings with those of the "German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998" (GNHIES98). The definition of known diabetes was based on self-reports in physician-administered interviews that asked respondents if they had ever been diagnosed with diabetes by a doctor or were on anti-diabetic medication. Overall, diabetes had been diagnosed in 7.2 % of the adults (7.4 % of the women; 7.0 % of the men). The prevalence increased substantially with advancing age and was higher in persons of low than of high socioeconomic status. Prevalence varied depending on the type of health insurance held and was highest amongst those insured with AOK health insurance funds. In comparison with GNHIES98, there was a 38 % increase in prevalence, of which approximately one third is to be attributed to demographic ageing. In the context of other nationwide studies, the results indicate a figure of at least 4.6 million 18- to 79-year-olds having been diagnosed with diabetes at some point. Planned analyses of undiagnosed diabetes will contribute to the interpretation of the observed increase in the prevalence of known diabetes. An English full-text version of this article is available at SpringerLink as supplemental.

  12. The prevalence trend of metabolic syndrome and its components and risk factors in Korean adults: results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2008–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binh Thang Tran

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Abnormalities in the clinical markers of metabolic syndrome (MS are associated with the development of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and some cancers. MS prevalence in Korea increased between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s; however, no data on the recent trends of MS prevalence are available. Thus, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of MS, the five components of MS, and the related risk factors in Korean adults by using recent data. Methods Data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted between 2008 and 2013 were used. The revised National Cholesterol Education Program criteria were used for defining MS. A multivariate logistic regression analyses was used to estimate the relationship between the related risk factors including behaviors, dietary factors, and the prevalence of MS. Results A total of 34,587 men and women were included in the analysis. Age-adjusted prevalence of MS in 2013 was 28.9% without a significant increasing or decreasing trend between 2008 and 2013. Among the five components of MS, abdominal obesity decreased in both men and women (annual percent change: −2.0 and −2.5%, respectively, the decrease being significant only in women, whereas blood pressure and blood glucose significantly increased in men (+1.9 and +2.7%, respectively. Age and obesity (odds ratio = 6.7, 95% confidence interval = 5.9–7.5 for body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 vs. body mass index <25 kg/m2 were associated with increased MS risk in both men and women. Smoking and alcohol drinking were significantly associated with increased MS risk in men, and association between MS and vitamin D deficiency was at the edge of statistical significance. Higher education and income level were significantly associated with decreased MS risk in women. During this period, smoking rate and physical activity, sodium intake, and serum vitamin D level significantly decreased. Education level

  13. Secular Changes in Clinical Features at Presentation of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Increase in Comorbidity But Improved Inflammatory States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikiphorou, Elena; Norton, Sam; Carpenter, Lewis; Dixey, Josh; Andrew Walsh, David; Kiely, Patrick; Young, Adam

    2017-01-01

    To examine secular trends in demographics, clinical manifestations, and comorbidity on first presentation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) prior to disease-modifying antirheumatic drug treatment. A total of 2,701 patients were recruited over 25 years to 2 UK-based RA inception cohorts: the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (9 centers; 1986-2001) and the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network (23 centers; 2002-2012). Trends in demographic and baseline clinical/laboratory and radiographic variables and comorbidities were estimated using mixed-effects models, including random effects for recruitment center. Age at onset increased from 53.2 to 57.7 years in 1990 and 2010, respectively (2.6 months/year; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.2, 4.1). Sex ratio, the proportion living in deprived areas, and smoking status were unchanged (P > 0.05) and there were no changes in the proportion seropositive or erosive at baseline (P > 0.05). After controlling for treatment at the time of assessment, erythrocyte sedimentation rate decreased and hemoglobin increased over time (P > 0.05); however, the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), the Disease Activity Score (DAS), the DAS in 28 joints, and joint counts were unchanged (P > 0.05). The overall prevalence of comorbidity increased from 29.0% in 1990 to 50.7% in 2010, mainly due to cardiovascular and non-cardiac vascular conditions, including hypertension. There was a significant increase in body mass index (0.15 units/year; 95% CI 0.11, 0.18), resulting in an increase in the prevalence of obesity from 13.3% in 1990 to 33.6% in 2010. Age at onset and comorbidity burden, especially obesity, have increased at RA presentation over 25 years, reflecting wider demographic trends at the population level. In contrast, there were no accompanying changes in disease severity assessed by composite markers of disease activity, radiographic erosions, seropositivity, or HAQ at presentation. Treatment strategies in early RA should take

  14. The influence of the great inequality on the secular disturbing function of the planetary system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musen, P.

    1971-01-01

    This paper derives the contribution by the great inequality to the secular disturbing function of the principal planets. Andoyer's expansion of the planetary disturbing function and von Zeipel's method of eliminating the periodic terms is employed; thereby, the corrected secular disturbing function for the planetary system is derived. The conclusion is drawn that the canonicity of the equations for the secular variation of the heliocentric elements can be preserved if there be retained, in the secular disturbing function, terms only of the second and fourth order relative to the eccentricity and inclinations. The Krylov-Bogoliubov method is suggested for eliminating periodic terms, if it is desired to include the secular perturbations of the fifth and higher order in the heliocentric elements. The additional part of the secular disturbing function derived in this paper can be included in existing theories of the secular effects of principal planets.

  15. Ten-year trends in anti-retroviral therapy persistence among US medicaid beneficiaries, 2001-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, Bora; Shireman, Theresa I; Lee, Yoojin; Galárraga, Omar; Rana, Aadia I; Justice, Amy C; Wilson, Ira B

    2017-05-16

    Whether the rate of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) persistence has improved over time in the U.S. is unknown. We examined ART persistence trends between 2001 and 2010, using non-HIV medications as a comparator. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Medicaid claims. We defined persistence as the duration of treatment from the first to the last fill date before a 90-day permissible gap, and used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to assess crude and adjusted non-persistence. The secular trends of ART persistence in 43 598 HIV patients were compared with the secular trends of persistence with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), statins, and metformin in (1) non-HIV-infected patients and (2) subgroups of HIV patients who started these control medications while using ART. Median time to ART non-persistence increased from 23.9 months in 2001-2003 to 35.4 months in 2004-2006, and was not reached for those starting ART in 2007-2010. In adjusted models, ART initiators in 2007-2010 had 11% decreased hazards of non-persistence compared with those who initiated in 2001-2003 (p negative controls.

  16. Evaluation of secular trend and the existence of cases of clusters of bladder cancer in Goiania: descriptive study population-based; Avaliacao da tendencia temporal e da existencia de casos de clusters de cancer de bexiga em Goiania: estudo descritivo de base populacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Gisele Guimaraes Daflon

    2008-07-01

    More than 20 years after the radiological accident with cesium-137 in the city of Goiania, there is still a feeling in local population that the number of cases of cancer in the city is growing up due to the past radiation exposure and that the number of people contaminated or exposed was higher than the number reported. The present study aims to evaluate the temporal trend and the space-time distribution of bladder cancer cases in Goiania from 1988 and 2003, taking into account that bladder cancer presents the highest risk coefficients per unit of radiation dose among solid cancers. The study population was composed of all incident cases of bladder cancer registered in the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Goiania, between 1988 and 2003.Temporal trend of bladder cancer incidence was analyzed by sex and age groups ( < 60 and {>=} 60 years of age) through polynomial regression using age standardized incidence rates of bladder cancer (world population). SaTscan was used to determine whether statistical significant geographic clusters of high incidence of bladder cancer cases can be located in the city. The results showed a significant increase of bladder cancer incidence rates in males of all ages (p= 0.025) and for age group higher or equal to 60 years old (p=O.022), and a stability in trends for female sex. In the space-time analysis, a cluster was identified, however without statistical significance (p=0.278) and its location has no relationship with the main focuses of contamination of the radiological accident in 1987. We concluded that, despite of the increase of incidence rates in males, this can be explained by the improvement in diagnostic procedures throughout time, being this increase still not perceived in females considering the small number of cases. As chance can not be ruled out as the explanation of the identified cluster, we do not suggest any further detailed investigation in this cluster, as the occurrence of cluster diseases in space can occur

  17. The Mediating Role of Secular Coping Strategies in the Relationship between Religious Appraisals and Adjustment to Chronic Pain: The Middle Road to Damascus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parenteau, Stacy C.; Hamilton, Nancy A.; Wu, Wei; Latinis, Kevin; Waxenberg, Lori B.; Brinkmeyer, Mary Y.

    2011-01-01

    Despite an outgrowth in research examining associations between religiosity and health outcomes, there has been a lack of empirical focus on the relationship between religiosity and adjustment to chronic pain. This study investigated specific secular coping strategies that mediate the proposed relationship between religious appraisals and…

  18. Familial resemblance in religiousness in a secular society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Petersen, Inge; Hjelmborg, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that human behavior and individual psychological traits are moderately to substantially heritable. Over the past decade, an increasing number of studies have explored the genetic and environmental influence on religiousness. These studies originate predominantly from countries...... generally considered more religious than the very secular northern European countries. Comparisons of the results are complicated by diverse definitions of religiousness, but several studies indicate that the influence of the family environment is most predominant in early life, whereas genetic influences...... increase with age. We performed a population-based twin study of religiousness in a secular society using data from a Web-based survey sent to 6,707 Danish twins born 1970-1989, who were identified in the Danish Twin Registry. We applied Fishman's three conceptual dimensions of religiousness: cognition...

  19. Ten-year trends in fiber and whole grain intakes and food sources for the United States population: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, Carla R; Fulgoni, Victor L; Devareddy, Latha

    2015-02-09

    Current U.S. dietary guidance includes recommendations to increase intakes of both dietary fiber and whole grain (WG). This study examines fiber and WG intakes, food sources and trends from 2001 to 2010 based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data for children/adolescents (n=14,973) and adults (n=24,809). Mean fiber intake for children/adolescents was 13.2 (±0.1) g/day. Mean fiber intake for adults 19-50 years (y) was 16.1 (±0.2) g/day and for adults 51+ was 16.1 (±0.2) g/day. There were significant increases in fiber intake from 2001-2010 for children/adolescents and for adults 51+y. Mean WG intake for children/adolescents was 0.52 (±0.01) oz eq/day. Mean WG intake for adults 19-50 y was 0.61 (±0.02) oz eq/day and for adults 51+0.86 (±0.02) oz eq/day. There were no significant changes in WG intake for any age group from 2001-2010. The main food groups contributing to dietary fiber intake for children/adolescents were vegetables (16.6%), grain mixtures (16.3%), other foods (15.8%) and fruits (11.3%). For adults 19+y, the main sources of dietary fiber were vegetables (22.6%), other foods (14.3%), grain mixtures (12.0%) and fruits (11.1%). Major WG sources for children/adolescents included ready-to-eat cereals (RTEC) (31%), yeast breads/rolls (21%) and crackers and salty grain snacks (21%). The main sources of WG for adults 19+ were yeast breads/rolls (27%), RTEC (23%) and pastas/cooked cereals/rice (21%). Recommending cereals, breads and grain mixtures with higher contents of both dietary fiber and WG, along with consumer education, could increase intakes among the United States (U.S.) population.

  20. Ten-Year Trends in Fiber and Whole Grain Intakes and Food Sources for the United States Population: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla R. McGill

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Current U.S. dietary guidance includes recommendations to increase intakes of both dietary fiber and whole grain (WG. This study examines fiber and WG intakes, food sources and trends from 2001 to 2010 based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES data for children/adolescents (n = 14,973 and adults (n = 24,809. Mean fiber intake for children/adolescents was 13.2 (±0.1 g/day. Mean fiber intake for adults 19–50 years (y was 16.1 (±0.2 g/day and for adults 51+ was 16.1 (±0.2 g/day. There were significant increases in fiber intake from 2001–2010 for children/adolescents and for adults 51+ y. Mean WG intake for children/adolescents was 0.52 (±0.01 oz eq/day. Mean WG intake for adults 19–50 y was 0.61 (±0.02 oz eq/day and for adults 51+ 0.86 (±0.02 oz eq/day. There were no significant changes in WG intake for any age group from 2001–2010. The main food groups contributing to dietary fiber intake for children/adolescents were vegetables (16.6%, grain mixtures (16.3%, other foods (15.8% and fruits (11.3%. For adults 19+ y, the main sources of dietary fiber were vegetables (22.6%, other foods (14.3%, grain mixtures (12.0% and fruits (11.1%. Major WG sources for children/adolescents included ready-to-eat cereals (RTEC (31%, yeast breads/rolls (21% and crackers and salty grain snacks (21%. The main sources of WG for adults 19+ were yeast breads/rolls (27%, RTEC (23% and pastas/cooked cereals/rice (21%. Recommending cereals, breads and grain mixtures with higher contents of both dietary fiber and WG, along with consumer education, could increase intakes among the United States (U.S. population.

  1. Four decades of European geomagnetic secular variation and acceleration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Korte

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Geomagnetic secular variation, the generally slow, continuous change in the core magnetic field, is characterized by occasional rapid variations known as geomagnetic jerks. Recent studies on magnetic data obtained by satellites with a good global coverage suggest that more rapid and smaller scale features than previously thought occur in the field change. We have taken advantage of the comparatively high density of geomagnetic observatories in Europe and have derived a regional model for the detailed study of secular variation and acceleration over the past four decades from 1960 to 2001 by means of improved and regularized spherical cap harmonic analysis. We show the improvements to our regional model over a global model. All the known jerks are seen in our model, but further times with rapid changes in secular variation exist. Moreover, times of zero acceleration in general do not occur simultaneously in all magnetic field components, although this nearly is the case in 1969.6 and 1982.2. Secular variation and acceleration show very dynamic patterns indicating rapid and complex causal processes in the Earth’s fluid core.



     


  2. Sluggish Postcrisis Growth: Policies, Secular Stagnation, and Outlook

    OpenAIRE

    Canuto, Otaviano; Nallari, Raj; Griffith, Breda

    2014-01-01

    In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, advanced economies have continued to experience sluggish growth. Is this slow postcrisis growth the result of a policy response that was overly reliant on monetary policy, which ran into the zero interest rate lower bound before growth was restored? Looking deeper, is secular stagnation, which is related to the zero lower bound and was recently brought to the fore by Larry Summers, another potential cause for advanced economies’ failure ...

  3. Secular changes in childhood, adolescent and adult stature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogin, Barry

    2013-01-01

    This essay provides a brief history of the etymology and usage of the phrase 'secular change' followed by a description of secular changes in height and relative leg length in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Both positive and negative changes are described. Possible causes are reviewed, with an emphasis on nutrition, infection and social-economic-political (SEP) environments. The case of the Maya people living in Mexico, Guatemala, and the United States is given, which shows that intergenerational changes in stature and its components - leg length and upper body length - may occur in different directions and at different rates. The deleterious consequences of rapid catch-up growth after birth have been proposed as a hypothesis to explain the 150 years of positive secular change in height of populations in the richer nations. That hypothesis is found to be an incomplete explanation. Growth changes better track the rate of change in SEP factors. Epigenetic assimilation is a new hypothesis, which focuses on those epigenetic processes regulating gene expression, metabolic function, physiology, and behavior. Epigenetic assimilation shows promise to account for plasticity and intergenerational changes in human growth and development phenotypes. Copyright © 2013 Nestec Ltd., Vevey/S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Democracy and secularism: remarks on an ongoing dispute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Bernardo Leite Araujo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1677-2954.2014v13n1p141This paper focus on the disputed issue concerning the proper role of religion in politics, confronting the contributions of three major contemporary political thinkers about democracy and secularism. I present, first, Charles Taylor’s characterization of secularist regimes as attempts to secure the basic principles of the modern moral order. Next, I argue that John Rawls’s growing interest in the relation between religion and democracy led him to an even more inclusive view of public reason. Thirdly, I show that Jürgen Habermas preserves a distinction between faith and knowledge that proves essential to grasping the debate over the place of religion in the public sphere. All three thinkers are concerned with the appropriate forum for the basic political language of the secular state. In a nutshell, my interpretation highlights a much greater proximity between Habermas and Rawls on political justification, on the one hand, and between the former and Taylor regarding the normative basis for the secular state, on the other hand, than their various interventions seem to indicate.

  5. Secularization and its Impact on the Jews’ Religious Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Adrian

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Secularization brings forward a desacralized world, exclusively oriented to the material and concerned with the “fashion of the day” rather than with the Spirit of God. Secularism made man wander from god and ignore the religious, spiritual and moral principles found in Christianity and Judaism. Secularization caused all social, economic or political aspects be expressed outside these principles and, many times, against them. Man’s religiousness has become something personal and original that has nothing to do with community or the life of the community, thus becoming a strictly private or intimate option, and in many case even a taboo. Therefore we speak about a privatization of the religious feeling that has no connection to Christianity or Judaism. Unfortunately Judaism has been affected in some other way besides what concerns religious life. We are referring to the anti-Semite feeling that reached its peak at the beginning of the last century and tragically ended in the holocaust in which millions of Jews lost their lives.

  6. Is rising obesity causing a secular (age-independent decline in testosterone among American men?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan Mazur

    Full Text Available The testosterone of men in industrial societies peaks in their twenties and tends to decline with increasing age. Apart from this individual-level decline, there have been reports of a secular (age-independent population-level decline in testosterone among American and Scandinavian men during the past few decades, possibly an indication of declining male reproductive health. It has been suggested that both declines in testosterone (individual-level and population-level are due to increasing male obesity because men in industrial society tend to add body fat as they age, and overall rates of obesity are increasing. Using an unusually large and lengthy longitudinal dataset (991 US Air Force veterans examined in six cycles over 20 years, we investigate the relationship of obesity to individual and population-level declines in testosterone. Over twenty years of study, longitudinal decline in mean testosterone was at least twice what would be expected from cross-sectional estimates of the aging decline. Men who put on weight intensified their testosterone decline, some greatly so, but even among those who held their weight constant or lost weight during the study, mean testosterone declined 117 ng/dl (19% over 20 years. We have not identified the reason for secular decline in testosterone, but we exclude increasing obesity as a sufficient or primary explanation, and we deny the supposition that men who avoid excessive weight will maintain their youthful levels of testosterone.

  7. Spiritual formation, secularization, and reform of professional nursing and education in antebellum America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libster, Martha Mathews

    The origin story of professional nursing associated with antebellum American faith communities is all but lost. This paper provides historical evidence for professional nursing for that period using a case study approach that examines three faith communities: the Sisters and Daughters of Charity, the Shakers, and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. The purpose is to present an historical analysis of the three communities' health beliefs, recipes and remedies that were foundational to the spiritual formation and education of professional nurses within their communities. The focus of the analysis is to place the evidence for professional nursing in these faith communities within the broader context of the contemporary American narrative of the "secularization" of professional nursing associated with the adoption of the Nightingale Training Model after 1873. Nursing became a profession in America because of the courage and passion of many for spiritual formation in community around a need to relieve suffering and demonstrate kindness. The history of American nursing is comprised of stories of powerful nurse ancestors that have the potential to inspire and unite us in that same purpose today despite the ambiguities that may still exist around spirituality, religiosity, and secularization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Mapping structural influences on sex and HIV education in church and secular schools in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mpofu, Elias; Mutepfa, Magen Mhaka; Hallfors, Denise Dion

    2012-09-01

    The authors used state-of-the-art concept mapping approaches to examine structural institutional effects of church and secular high schools on the types of sexual and HIV-prevention education messages transmitted to learners in Zimbabwe. Participants were school teachers (n = 26), school counselors (n = 28), and pastors involved in student pastoral care (n = 14; males = 27, females = 41). They reported on messages perceived to influence sexual decisions of learners in their school setting. The self-report data were clustered into message types using concept mapping and contrasted for consistency of content and structure both between and within type of school. The authors also engaged in curriculum document study with member checks in the participant schools to determine convergence of the evidence on school-type effects of the messages transmitted to students. Church schools prioritized faith-informed sexual and HIV-prevention messages, whereas both types of schools prioritized Life skills education and a future focus. Secular schools prioritized sex and HIV messages in the context of community norms. Facts about HIV and AIDS were relatively underemphasized by church schools. The implicit knowledge values that differentiate types of schools influence learner access to information important for their sexual decisions.

  9. There is a Sexular Body: Introducing a Material Approach to the Secular

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle Wiering

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article calls for more ‘bottom-up inquiry’ into the secular, departing from the assumption that it features normative ideologies and practices that dominate current societies. I plea for collecting and analyzing manifestations of the secular, as the secular as an phenomenon in society is surprisingly unexplored. To stimulate such inquiry, I suggest a material approach to the secular, as it will provide researchers with tools to conduct empirical research on the secular in contemporary societies. Inspired by Joan Scott, Charles Hirschkind, and Talal Asad, this article explores the notion of a Dutch ‘sexular’ body: a body which affective-gestural repertoires, limited here to the context of sexuality, people in society (historically associate with the secular. I conclude by arguing that a material approach to the secular will contribute to (1 obtaining a more comprehensive understanding of the secular, including its cultural conceptualizations and manifestations, and (2 clarifying, and hence facing the normativity the secular imposes on the people living in secular societies.

  10. Atlantic tropical cyclones in the twentieth century: natural variability and secular change in cyclone count

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nigam, Sumant [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, 3419 Computer and Space Science Building, College Park, MD (United States); Guan, Bin [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, 3419 Computer and Space Science Building, College Park, MD (United States); California Institute of Technology, Water and Carbon Cycle Group, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA (United States)

    2011-06-15

    The twentieth century record of the annual count of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is analyzed to develop consistent estimates of its natural variability and secular change components. The analysis scheme permits development of multidecadal trends from natural variability alone, reducing aliasing of the variability and change components. The scheme is rooted in recurrent variability modes of the influential SST field and cognizant of Pacific-Atlantic links. The origin of increased cyclone counts in the early 1930s, suppressed counts in 1950-1960s, and the recent increase (since 1990s) is investigated using the count data set developed by Landsea et al. (J Clim 23: 2508-2519, 2010). We show that annual TC counts can be more closely reconstructed from Pacific and Atlantic SSTs than SST of the main development region (MDR) of Atlantic TCs; the former accounting for {proportional_to}60% of the decadal count variance as opposed to {proportional_to}30% for MDR SST. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) dominates the reconstruction, accounting for {proportional_to}55% of the natural decadal count variance, followed by the ENSO Non-Canonical and Pan-Pacific decadal variability contributions. We argue for an expansive view of the domain of influential SSTs - extending much beyond the MDR. The additional accounting of count variance by SSTs outside the MDR suggests a role for remotely-forced influences over the tropical Atlantic: the Pan-Pacific decadal mode is linked with decreased westerly wind shear (200-850 hPa) in its warm phase, much as the AMO impact itself. Non-canonical ENSO variability, in contrast, exerts little influence on decadal timescales. Interestingly, the secular but non-uniform warming of the oceans is linked with increased westerly shear, leading to off-setting dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on TC activity. The early-1930s increase in smoothed counts can be partially ({proportional_to}50%) reconstructed from SST natural variability. The 1950

  11. Anomalous secular sea-level acceleration in the Baltic Sea caused by isostatic adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio Spada

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Observations from the global array of tide gauges show that global sea-level has been rising at an average rate of 1.5-2 mm/yr during the last ~150 years [Douglas 1991, Spada and Galassi 2012]. Although a global sea-level acceleration was initially ruled out [Douglas 1992], subsequent studies [Douglas 1997, Church and White 2006, Jevrejeva et al. 2008, Church and White 2011] have coherently proposed values of ~1 mm/year/century [Olivieri and Spada 2013]. More complex non-linear trends and abrupt sea-level variations have now also been recognized. Globally, these could manifest a regime shift between the late Holocene and the current rhythms of sea-level rise [Gehrels and Woodworth 2013], while locally they result from ocean circulation anomalies, steric effects and wind stress [Bromirski et al. 2011, Merrifield 2011]. Although isostatic readjustment affects the local rates of secular sea-level change [Milne and Mitrovica 1998, Peltier 2004], a possible impact on regional acceleration has been so far discounted [Douglas 1992, Jevrejeva et al. 2008, Woodworth et al. 2009] since the process evolves on a millennium time scale [Turcotte and Schubert 2002]. Here we report a previously unnoticed anomaly in the long-term sea-level acceleration of the Baltic Sea tide gauge records, and we explain it by the classical post-glacial rebound theory and numerical modeling of glacial isostasy. Contrary to previous assumptions, our findings demonstrate that isostatic compensation plays a role in the regional secular sea-level acceleration.

  12. How well does social variation mirror secular change in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a country in transition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Dahl-Petersen, Inger Katrine

    2011-01-01

    The social and cultural transition among the Inuit in Greenland over the last generations has in ecological studies been linked to changes in cardiovascular risk factors. To permit analyses at the individual level, we propose a categorization of participants in a cross-sectional study according to their relative position in the process of social change. Data was included from two cross-sectional population surveys in 1993-1994 (N = 1,580) and 2005-2009 (N = 2,834). Socioeconomic factors, mental health, health behavior, obesity, blood lipids, blood pressure, and prevalence of diabetes were compared between the surveys and among groups at various degree of social change defined from current residence, job, and education. General linear models and logistic regression analysis were applied. Most outcome variables showed statistically significant difference between the two studies indicating secular change, and for most the gradient in the ranked social groups was in agreement with the observed secular change. This included housing conditions, wealth, diet, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, obesity, and for women also non-HDL cholesterol and hypertension. Anxiety and depression increased over time but decreased with social group for women. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes has increased, but we found no differences among social groups. Serum triglyceride and for men non-HDL cholesterol and hypertension showed inconsistent results. For a majority of the examined cardiovascular risk factors, social population groups defined from cross-sectional data adequately mirror secular change. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  13. State Handbook for Industrial Arts: A Comparison of Content with Judgments of Leaders and an Examination of Trends Reflected in These Publications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Delton Lee

    The purpose of this study were to: (1) determine the extent to which state industrial arts publications reflect the thinking of contemporary leaders, (2) identify curricular trends in state publications, and (3) provide guidelines for the preparation of state industrial arts handbooks. Data were obtained by a word count documentary analysis of 78…

  14. Secular and annual hydrologic effects from the Plate Boundary Observatory GPS network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meertens, C. M.; Wahr, J. M.; Borsa, A. A.; Jackson, M. E.; Herring, T.

    2009-12-01

    The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS network is providing accurate and spatially coherent vertical signals that can be interpreted in terms of hydrological loading and poroelastic effects from both natural and anthropogenic changes in water storage. Data used for this analysis are the precise coordinate time series produced on a daily basis by PBO Analysis Centers at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology and at Central Washington University and combined by the Analysis Center Coordinator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These products, as well as derived velocity solutions, are made freely available from the UNAVCO Data Center in Boulder. Analysis of secular trends and annual variations in the time series was made using the analysis software of Langbein, 2008. Spatial variations in the amplitude and phase of the annual vertical component of motion allow for identification of anthropogenic effects due to water pumping, irrigation, and reservoir lake variations, and of outliers due to instrumental or other local site effects. Vertical annual signals of 8-10 mm peak-to-peak amplitude are evident at stations in the mountains of northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest. The peak annual uplift is in October and is correlated to hydrological loading effects. Mountainous areas appear to be responding elastically to the load of the water contained in surface soil, fractures, and snow. Vertical signals are highest when the water load is at a minimum. The vertical elastic hydrologic loading signal was modeled using the 0.25 degree community NOAH land-surface model (LSM) and generally fits the observed GPS signal. Addition comparisons will be made using the Mosaic LSM and the NOAA “Leaky Bucket” hydrologic model. In contrast to mountain stations that are installed principally in bedrock, stations in the valleys of California are installed in sediments. Observations from these stations show greater spatial variability ranging from

  15. Geomagnetic Secular Variation and Its Applications to the Core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jackson, Andrew; Finlay, Chris

    2015-01-01

    We review the observational constraints on the morphology and evolution of the magnetic field of the Earth over the last few centuries; these changes are referred to as the secular variation.Starting with a description of the available sources of original observations of the field, we thendiscuss...... of physical core processes. These divide themselves into processes associatedwith movement of core fluid, which is capable of advecting the field, and processes associated withthe finite resistivity of the core, commonly termed diffusive processes. We lay the foundations for some of the more theoretical...

  16. Secular cooling of Earth as a source of intraplate stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    The once popular idea that changes in planetary volume play an important role in terrestrial orogeny and tectonics was generally discarded with the acceptance of plate tectonics. It is nonetheless likely that the Earth has been steadily cooling over the past 3-4 billion years, and the global contraction that accompanied such cooling would have led to a secular decrease in the radius of curvature of the plates. The implications of this global cooling and contraction are explored here for the intraplate stress field and the evolution of continental plates.

  17. The positions of secular resonance surfaces. [for major planet orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. G.; Faulkner, J.

    1981-01-01

    The surfaces for the three strongest secular resonances have been located as a function of proper semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination for semimajor axes between 1.25 and 3.5 AU. The results are presented graphically. The nu5 resonance only occurs at high inclinations (approximately greater than 23 deg). The nu6 resonance passes through both the main belt and Mars-crossing space. The nu16 resonance starts near the inner edge of the belt and, at low inclinations at least, folds around a portion of the Mars-crossing space until it runs nearly parallel with the earth-crossing boundary.

  18. Secular Cooling Rates of the Mantle : Various Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainey, E.; van den Berg, A. P.; Yuen, D. A.

    2002-12-01

    The history of secular cooling of the mantle is an old important issue, which has been attacked for many years using temperature-dependent viscosity as the primary agent (Tozer, 1972. Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 6, 182-197). In this work we have ventured to look at the impact of variable thermal conductivity on the secular cooling rates predicted by models using just temperature-dependent viscosity. We have found the following salient results. (1) A delayed secular cooling is found as in the constant viscosity models (van den Berg and Yuen, 2002, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 199, 403-413, van den Berg et al., 2002, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 129, 359-375). We have applied an exponential temperature and pressure dependent viscosity model, using thermal viscosity contrast up to 3000 and fixed presssure viscosity contrast of 100 for this verification. (2) A purely depth-dependent thermal conductivity k(P) cannot catch the destructive effect of temperature dependent conductivity on the negative thermal buoynacy of cold downwellings, driving the convective circulation. These k(P) models also lack feedback physics between time-dependent internal heating and variable thermal conductivity k(T,P), thus stressing the need to use k(T,P) whenever there is a strong source of heat present. (3) Large-differences occur between predictions from 2-D numerical models based on Partial Differential Equations (PDE) and averaged parameterized convection models, formulated using an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE), within the framework of integrating the nonlinear ODE for the volume average temperature. The ODE results for this comparison are computed using the time series of volume average quantities (viscosity, conductivity) obtained from the 2-D PDE results. The comparison shows that the 1-2 Gyr delay in secular cooling, characteristic for full convection PDE models, is not reproduced in the ODE results from parameterized convection models. The temperature dependence of the ice thermal

  19. Central overweight and obesity in Polish schoolchildren aged 7-18 years: secular changes of waist circumference between 1966 and 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suder, Agnieszka; Gomula, Aleksandra; Koziel, Slawomir

    2017-07-01

    We investigated secular trends of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in Polish schoolchildren examined through a period of almost 50 years. Data on height, weight and WC came from four cross-sectional surveys conducted in Poland between 1966 and 2012, covering 34,005 boys and 34,008 girls. Raw data of BMI and WC were standardized for age classes. Statistical analyses included the Kruskal-Willis test and Pearson Chi-square test. BMI and WC increased during the studied period; however, the growth was higher for WC (increase by 0.56 and 0.44 SD scores for BMI and 1.05 and 0.77 SD scores for WC in boys and girls, respectively). In boys, secular changes in BMI and WC were similar across childhood, early and late adolescence, while in girls they differed, indicating change in the type of adipose tissue distribution to a more central one in late adolescent girls. During 46 years, there was a tendency to a greater increase of the fraction of individuals with central obesity than the overall one. Since abdominal fat deposit is more connected with higher health risks than subcutaneous fat pattern, probably the number of metabolic complications in Polish children and adolescents will intensify in the future. What is Known: • BMI has significant limitations related to fat distribution, while WC is a measure of central adiposity. • Greater central fat deposition increases the risk of many diseases; therefore, WC may serve as a diagnostic measure for detecting central obesity in children at risk. What is New: • In girls, changes in BMI and WC indicate change in adipose tissue distribution to a more central one in late adolescence girls. • Both general and abdominal obesity in Polish children increased significantly from 1966 to 2012, with the tendency to a greater increase of the fraction of individuals with central obesity than the overall one, implying the number of metabolic complications in Polish children and adolescents may intensify in the future.

  20. Examining the contribution of the observed global warming trend to the California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Daithi Stone,

    2014-01-01

    While the SST trend mode has resulted in large SST increases that appear associated with an equatorial precipitation dipole response contrasting increases over the western Pacific and decreases over the central Pacific, the location of most of this warming is to the west of the key sensitivity areas identified in our CMIP5 composite. Removing this warming did not increase the CAM5 precipitation over California in a statistically significant manner, thus there appears to be little evidence that this long term warming trend contributed substantially to the 2013 and 2014 drought events. This result appears consistent with the lack of a long term downward trend in California precipitation. California precipitation does appear to be sensitive to north Pacific SST, and climate change models indicate substantial warming. If SST events like the unprecedented 2014 north Pacific SST anomaly become more common, California could also experience more frequent droughts. In addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in California, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability.

  1. On the secular recession of the Earth-Moon system as an azimuthal gravitational phenomenon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambuya, G. G.; Makwanya, T.; Tuturu, B. A.; Tsoka, W.

    2015-07-01

    We here apply the ASTG-model to the observed secular trend in the mean Sun-(Earth-Moon) and Earth-Moon distances thereby providing an alternative explanation as to what the cause of this secular trend may be. Within the margins of observational error; for the semi-major axis rate of the Earth-Moon system, in agreement with observations (of Standish and Kurtz, Proceedings IAU Colloquium, IAU, pp. 163-179, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2005), we obtain a value of about +(5.10±0.10) cm/yr. The ASTG-model predicts orbital drift as being a result of the orbital inclination and the Solar mass loss rate. The Newtonian gravitational constant G is assumed to be an absolute time constant. Krasinsky and Brumberg (Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron. 90(3-4):267-288, 2004); Standish and Kurtz (2005) reported for the Earth-Moon system, an orbital recession from the Sun of about +(15.00±4.00) cm/yr and +(7.00±2.00) cm/yr respectively; while Williams et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 93:261101, 2004); Williams and Boggs (Proceedings of 16th International Workshop on Laser Ranging, Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland, 2009), Williams et al. (Planet. Sci. 3(1):2, 2014) report for the Moon, a semi-major axis rate of about +(38.08±0.04) mm/yr from the Earth. The predictions of the ASTG-model for the Earth-Moon system agrees very well with those the findings of Standish and Kurtz (2005), Krasinsky and Brumberg (2004). The lost orbital angular momentum for the Earth-Moon system—which we here hypothesize to be gained as spin by the two body Earth-Moon system; this lost angular momentum accounts very well for the observed Lunar drift, therefore, one can safely say that the ASTG-model does to a reasonable degree of accuracy predict the observed Lunar semi-major axis rate of about +(38.08±0.04) mm/yr from the Earth.

  2. SECULAR DYNAMICAL ANTI-FRICTION IN GALACTIC NUCLEI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madigan, Ann-Marie; Levin, Yuri, E-mail: madigan@strw.leidenuniv.nl [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9513, NL-2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands)

    2012-07-20

    We identify a gravitational-dynamical process in near-Keplerian potentials of galactic nuclei that occurs when an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) is migrating on an eccentric orbit through the stellar cluster towards the central supermassive black hole. We find that, apart from conventional dynamical friction, the IMBH experiences an often much stronger systematic torque due to the secular (i.e., orbit-averaged) interactions with the cluster's stars. The force which results in this torque is applied, counterintuitively, in the same direction as the IMBH's precession and we refer to its action as 'secular dynamical anti-friction' (SDAF). We argue that SDAF, and not the gravitational ejection of stars, is responsible for the IMBH's eccentricity increase seen in the initial stages of previous N-body simulations. Our numerical experiments, supported by qualitative arguments, demonstrate that (1) when the IMBH's precession direction is artificially reversed, the torque changes sign as well, which decreases the orbital eccentricity; (2) the rate of eccentricity growth is sensitive to the IMBH migration rate, with zero systematic eccentricity growth for an IMBH whose orbit is artificially prevented from inward migration; and (3) SDAF is the strongest when the central star cluster is rapidly rotating. This leads to eccentricity growth/decrease for the clusters rotating in the opposite/same direction relative to the IMBH's orbital motion.

  3. Holocene Full-Vector Secular Variation from African Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, S.; Platzman, E. S.; Johnson, T. C.; Scholz, C. A.; Cohen, A. S.; Russell, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    We are developing a regional pattern of Holocene paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) from four lakes in East Africa - Lake Turkana (3°N), Lake Victoria (1°S), Lake Tanganyika (5°S), and Lake Malawi (10°S). Detailed paleomagnetic and rock magnetic measurements have been made on two cores from Lake Malawi (9m meters in depth, last ~10,000 years), two cores from Lake Victoria (8 m, last ~8,000 years), 11 cores from Lake Turkana (2-9 m, last ~10,000 years), and one core from Lake Tanganyika (5 m, last ~5,000 years). Our rock magnetic studies identify significant intervals of magnetic mineral dissolution in Lakes Victoria and Tanganyika making parts of these cores unsuitable for relative paleointensity studies. On the other hand, rock magnetic variability in the Lake Malawi and Lake Turkana cores are stable and correlatable among cores. We have recovered directional secular variation records from Lakes Malawi, Victoria, and Turkana. Millennial-scale inclination and declination features can be correlated among cores at each lake and between lakes. We have also recovered relative paleointensity records from Lakes Malawi and Turkana. More than 20 radiocarbon dates and detailed seismic stratigraphy (Turkana) provide critical added information for correlating and dating the paleomagnetic records.

  4. Secular stagnation or stagnation policy? Steindl after Summers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckhard Hein

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The debate on secular stagnation suffers from vagueness and several shortcomings, which affect its economic policy implications. In this work we provide an alternative view on the advanced economies’ tendencies to stagnation, based on Josef Steindl’s contributions. Steindl’s pioneering 1952 book in particular is not prone to several problems that affect the current debate on secular stagnation. It does not rely on the dubious notion of an equilibrium real interest rate as the equilibrating force of saving and investment at full employment levels. Rather, it is based on the notion that modern capitalist economies face aggregate demand constraints, and that saving adjusts to investment through income growth and changes in capacity utilisation in the long run. Steindl’s treatment allows for potential growth to become endogenous to actual demand, and it seriously considers the role of institutions and power relationships for long-run growth. In illustrating Steindl’s contributions on this topic, the article presents an original model synthetizing the main points in particular concerning long run growth and stagnation. JEL codes: B22, E11, E12, E65, O11

  5. Ancient Ephesus: Processions as Media of Religious and Secular Propaganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Portefaix

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available The significance of religious rituals often reaches beyond their strict religious intentions. Specifically a procession, performed in front of the public, is a most effective instrument of disseminating a message to the crowds. Consequently, this ritual, as is well known, has often been used not only in religious but also in secular contexts; a procession under the cloak of religion can even become a politically useful medium to avoid popular disturbances on peaceful terms. This was the case in ancient Ephesus, where Roman power conflicted with Greek culture from the middle of the first century B.C. onwards. In the beginning of the second century A.D. the public religious life in the city of Ephesus was to a great extent characterized by processions relating to the cult of Artemis Ephesia. The one traditionally performed on the birthday of the goddess called to mind the Greek origin of the city; it was strictly associated with the religious sphere bringing about a close relationship between the goddess and her adherents. The other, artificially created by a Roman, was entirely secular, and spread its message every fortnight in the streets of Ephesus. It referred to the political field of action and intended to strengthen the Roman rule over the city. The Greek origin of Ephesian culture was later included in the message of the procession, reminding the Greeks not to rebel against Roman rule.

  6. Internal and environmental secular evolution of disk galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kormendy, John

    2015-03-01

    This Special Session is devoted to the secular evolution of disk galaxies. Here `secular' means `slow' i.e., evolution on time scales that are generally much longer than the galaxy crossing or rotation time. Internal and environmentally driven evolution both are covered. I am indebted to Albert Bosma for reminding me at the 2011 Canary Islands Winter School on Secular Evolution that our subject first appeared in print in a comment made by Ivan King (1977) in his introductory talk at the Yale University meeting on The Evolution of Galaxies and Stellar Populations: `John Kormendy would like us to consider the possibility that a galaxy can interact with itself.. . . I'm not at all convinced, but John can show you some interesting pictures.' Two of the earliest papers that followed were Kormendy (1979a, b); the first discusses the interaction of galaxy components with each other, and the second studies these phenomena in the context of a morphological survey of barred galaxies. The earliest modeling paper that we still use regularly is Combes & Sanders (1981), which introduces the now well known idea that box-shaped bulges in edge-on galaxies are side-on, vertically thickened bars. It is gratifying to see how this subject has grown since that time. Hundreds of papers have been written, and the topic features prominently at many meetings (e.g., Block et al. 2004; Falcoń-Barroso & Knapen 2012, and this Special Session). My talk here introduces both internal and environmental secular evolution; a brief abstract follows. My Canary Islands Winter School review covers both subjects in more detail (Kormendy 2012). Kormendy & Kennicutt (2004) is a comprehensive review of internal secular evolution, and Kormendy & Bender (2012) covers environmental evolution. Both of these subject make significant progress at this meeting. Secular evolution happens because self-gravitating systems evolve toward the most tightly bound configuration that is reachable by the evolution processes

  7. Secular Decrease the Flux of Supernova Remnant CAS a on Monitoring Results to Radiotelescope "URAN-4" Ira Nasu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbynov, A. A.; Ryabov, M. I.; Panishko, S. K.

    This work is dedicated to the study of secular decrease of the flux of young supernova remnant Cas A according to observations by radio- telescope "URAN-4" of Odessa Observatory IRA NASU from 1987 to 2001 years on frequency of 25 MHz. On the investigation base there is a relationship analysis of flux CasA to the "stable" source - radio-galaxy Cyg A (CasA/Cyg A) which is located on a small angular distance. Results of the observations held on RT "URAN-4" show that there is no noticeable decrease of fluxes in the period 1987-1993, with the relationship ratio (CasA/Cyg A) = 1.5. While considering data from 1987 to 2001 manifested a slight decrease trend in flux equal to 8.4% for the all period. At the same time, according to various investigations the average value flux of Cas A in the interval of frequencies 38-2924 MHz is 0.8% per year. At the meantime in this frequency the range ratio (CasA/Cyg A) has become less than one. Thus, there is a noticable contradiction of secular decrease of the flux Cas A on this radio frequencies in comparison with the predictions of the theory in 1.7% per year.

  8. Addressing Religious Plurality--A Teacher Perspective on Minority Religion and Secular Ethics Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilliacus, Harriet

    2013-01-01

    The Finnish education system recognizes religious plurality by offering education in pupils' own religion or in secular ethics. However, little research has been undertaken on how plurality is addressed in classroom practice. This study investigates how 31 minority religion and secular ethics teachers view the task of supporting and including…

  9. Stellar dynamics around a massive black hole - I. Secular collisionless theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, S.; Touma, Jihad R.

    2016-06-01

    We present a theory in three parts, of the secular dynamics of a (Keplerian) stellar system of mass M orbiting a black hole of mass M• ≫ M. Here we describe the collisionless dynamics; Papers II and III are on the (collisional) theory of resonant relaxation. The mass ratio, ε = M/M• ≪ 1, is a natural small parameter implying a separation of time-scales between the short Kepler orbital periods and the longer orbital precessional periods. The collisionless Boltzmann equation (CBE) for the stellar distribution function (DF) is averaged over the fast Kepler orbital phase using the method of multiple scales. The orbit-averaged system is described by a secular DF, F, in a reduced phase space. F obeys a secular CBE that includes stellar self-gravity, general relativistic corrections up to 1.5 post-Newtonian order, and external sources varying over secular times. Secular dynamics, even with general time dependence, conserves the semimajor axis of every star. This additional integral of motion promotes extra regularity of the stellar orbits, and enables the construction of equilibria, F0, through a secular Jeans theorem. A linearized secular CBE determines the response and stability of F0. Spherical, non-rotating equilibria may support long-lived, warp-like distortions. We also prove that an axisymmetric, zero-thickness, flat disc is secularly stable to all in-plane perturbations, when its DF, F0, is a monotonic function of the angular momentum at fixed energy.

  10. Review of: Julian Rivers, The Law of Organized Religions. Between Establishment and Secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinding, Niels Valdemar

    2011-01-01

    Julian Rivers, The Law of Organized Religions. Between Establishment and Secularism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-19-922610-8 (Hardback), pp. li + 368.......Julian Rivers, The Law of Organized Religions. Between Establishment and Secularism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-19-922610-8 (Hardback), pp. li + 368....

  11. "Doing the Secular": Academic Practices in the Study of Religion at Two Danish Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Birgitte Schepelern

    2011-01-01

    The academic study of religion at the public university often presents itself as a secular, non-religious, scientific endeavor. The identity of the study is thus firmly rooted within one of the central secular-religious divides, namely that between science and religion. Based on the assumption that such distinctions between religion and the…

  12. Secular Ethics Education as an Alternative to Religious Education--Finnish Teachers' Views

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilliacus, Harriet; Kallioniemi, Arto

    2016-01-01

    This study provides a Finnish perspective to international discussions on religious and worldviews education through the subject of secular ethics. This subject has been offered in Finland since 1985 throughout comprehensive schools and is primarily directed at students who are non-affiliated. Secular ethics education has scarcely been researched…

  13. Spirituality in a secular age: From Charles Taylor to study of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This essay proposes that those engaged in the study of the Bible in relation to spirituality would benefit from awareness of Charles Taylor's thinking in A Secular Age, which is a narrative not only about the emergence of the secular but also about the role of the spiritual in Western civilization. The essay indicates the ...

  14. Family income and education were related with 30-year time trends in dietary and meal behaviors of American children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

    2013-05-01

    Recent survey data reveal the persistence of long-acknowledged socioeconomic status (SES) differentials in the prevalence of obesity in U.S. children and adolescents. We examined 30-y changes in the association of dietary and meal behaviors with family income and education to understand the possible contribution of these trends to SES trends in obesity rates in 2- to 19-y-old Americans. We used dietary and SES data for 2- to 19-y olds from the NHANES 1971-1974 to 2003-2008 (n = 39,822). The secular changes in the independent association of family income and education with 24-h dietary behaviors [energy intake (kcal), amount of foods and beverages (g), percent energy from all beverages and from nutritive beverages, and energy density of foods] and 24-h meal behaviors [number of eating occasions, energy from snack episodes (%), and mention of breakfast] were examined using multivariable regression methods. The secular increase in energy intake and food and beverage amount was significant in the lowest family SES categories. The positive association of family income and education with intakes of energy, food amounts, and beverage energy, noted in 1971-1974 or 1976-1980, was not observed in later surveys. There was an age gradient in changes in most diet and SES associations over time, with largest adverse changes in 12- to 19-y olds. Higher education was associated with lower energy from snack episodes, breakfast skipping, and energy density of foods and these associations did not change over time. Overall, these results suggest both income and education differentials in secular increases in food amounts and energy intakes.

  15. Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

    2015-04-01

    We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

  16. On Solution of the secular system in the analytical Moon's theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanova, T. V.

    2014-12-01

    The theory of the orbital motion of the Moon in the frameworks of the general planetary theory GPT (Brumberg, 1995) enables to represent the lunar coordinates in a purely trigonometric form and valid, at least formally, for an indefinite interval of time. For that the Moon is considered to be an additional planet in the field of eight major planets. The trigonometric form of the coordinates is ensured by a special technique of the solution of the lunar equations that enables to separate the short period and long period terms arguments. The long{period terms form an autonomous secular system. The trigonometric solution of this system describes the secular motions of the lunar perigee and node with taking into account the secular planetary inequalities. The secular system in Laplace{type variables was constructed in (Ivanova, 2013). The aim of this paper is to solve this secular system by the normalizing Birkhoff transformation.

  17. The New Secular Humanists: Ronald Dworkin and Philip Kitcher on Life without God

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Taliaferro

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Ronald Dworkin and Philip Kitcher recognize that traditional, religious faith—especially in Christian theistic tradition—has virtues that seem to be missing in a secular worldview. To remedy this apparent deficit, they both propose that a secular worldview can provide a satisfying foundation for a flourishing, meaningful life. Moreover, Kitcher argues that secular humanism is far more justified than a religious worldview because it does not face the problem of diversity that arises in the case of religion. I argue that secular humanism faces the same problem of diversity that Kitcher proposes undermines religious belief. I further argue that Dworkin’s and Kitcher’s secular alternative to a religious worldview is problematic.

  18. Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and cardiopathy. In 2008, cardiopathy replaced cerebro- vascular disease as the second main cause of death, at. 19.7%, and in 2006, endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases ranked sixth, at 3.3%, replacing digestive diseas- es. The proportion of deaths related to cardiopathy and nervous system diseases increased ...

  19. Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Injury and poisoning in urban or rural areas represented the fifth leading cause of death. In 2006, endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases were the sixth main cause of death, with 3.3% in urban areas. The role of genito-urinary, respiratory, and digestive system diseases in urban areas and genito-urinary system ...

  20. Secular trends and seasonality in first-time hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Thomas; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Johnsen, Søren Paaske

    2004-01-01

    changes in seasonality. Methods: The study was based on 17,989 patients hospitalized with first-time acute myocardial infarction identified in the Hospital Discharge Registry of the County of North Jutland, Denmark, from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 1999. The seasonality of acute myocardial infarction...... of these seasonal patterns remained stable throughout the study period despite the decline in hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction. Conclusion> Hospitalizations for first-time acute myocardial infarction decreased from 1983 to 1999, but the seasonal pattern remained stable over time....... was estimated using a Poisson regression model. Results: The incidence rate decreased by 3.2 % (95% confidence interval: 2.7-3.3%) annually. Hospitalizations followed different seasonal patterns depending on age, but not on gender. In the

  1. The secular trend for grip strength in Canada and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverman, Irwin W

    2011-03-01

    Worldwide, body weight has risen dramatically in recent decades, raising the question of whether there were concomitant changes in physical fitness. Past research with children and adolescents has shown that body weight and grip strength are positively correlated. Therefore, it was predicted that grip strength had increased on average in children and adolescents over the past four or five decades. To test this prediction, relevant data were extracted from 18 studies for males (N = 5676 in total) and 17 studies for females (N = 5489 in total). The studies were conducted in Canada and the United States from about 1966 on, with participants' ages ranging from 6 through 19 years. Weighted least squares regression analyses showed that grip strength was significantly predicted by age but not by country. Male grip strength decreased significantly over the period covered, but the change was very small, accounting for far less than 1% of the variance in male grip strength. Discussion focuses on potential explanations for why grip strength did not change over time as predicted.

  2. A sensitivity analysis of secular trends in risk factors and mortality based on cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, Eva; Andersen, Per Kragh; Osler, Merete

    1999-01-01

    Nonparticipation, healthy responder, tobacco, smoking, mortality, epidemiologic methods, population study......Nonparticipation, healthy responder, tobacco, smoking, mortality, epidemiologic methods, population study...

  3. Secular trends in adiposity in Norwegian 9-year-olds from 1999-2000 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolle, Elin; Steene-Johannessen, Jostein; Holme, Ingar

    2009-01-01

    by trained investigators. The International Obesity Task Force cut-offs were used to define overweight and obese subjects. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of overweight (including obesity) did not change over the five year period. However, a shift may have occurred as the prevalence of overweight (including...... obesity) increased by 6.4% in girls and 5.5% in boys over the five year period. In both study periods, logistic regression analyses revealed that children of non-Western origin had 2 times higher odds of being overweight/obese than those of Western origin. However, neither the children of Western origin...... nor the children of non-Western origin showed a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight over the five-year period. No changes were observed for mean BMI, while a significant increase in WC was reported for both girls and boys, and an increase in all skinfold measurements was observed...

  4. Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Department of Prevention and Health Care, Military Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450000, China. Abstract ... Results: The top 3 causes of death from 2009 to 2013 were cancer, cerebrovascular disease, and cardiopathy, with the role of cardiopathy ... 19.7%, and in 2006, endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic.

  5. Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bacteraemia in a Danish county 1981-1994

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kreesten Meldgaard; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Kristensen, Brian

    1999-01-01

    of bacteraemias increased significantly. This observation could be explained only partly by changes in demography, in blood culture system, and in diagnostic activity. The case fatality rate remained constant despite the fact that more people were diagnosed with bacteraemia; this indicates that, with recent blood...

  6. Examining national and district-level trends in neonatal health in Peru through an equity lens: a success story driven by political will and societal advocacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Huicho

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Peru has impressively reduced its neonatal mortality rate (NMR. We aimed, for the period 2000–2013, to: (a describe national and district NMR variations over time; (b assess NMR trends by wealth quintile and place of residence; (c describe evolution of mortality causes; (d assess completeness of registered mortality; (e assess coverage and equity of NMR-related interventions; and (f explore underlying driving factors. Methods We compared national NMR time trends from different sources. To describe NMR trends by wealth quintiles, place of residence and districts, we pooled data on births and deaths by calendar year for neonates born to women interviewed in multiple surveys. We disaggregated coverage of NMR-related interventions by wealth quintiles and place of residence. To identify success factors, we ran regression analyses and combined desk reviews with qualitative interviews and group discussions. Results NMR fell by 51 % from 2000 to 2013, second only to Brazil in Latin America. Reduction was higher in rural and poorest segments (52 and 58 %. District NMR change varied by source. Regarding cause-specific NMRs, prematurity decreased from 7.0 to 3.2 per 1,000 live births, intra-partum related events from 2.9 to 1.2, congenital abnormalities from 2.4 to 1.8, sepsis from 1.9 to 0.8, pneumonia from 0.9 to 0.4, and other conditions from 1.2 to 0.7. Under-registration of neonatal deaths decreased recently, more in districts with higher development index and lower rural population. Coverage of family planning, antenatal care and skilled birth attendance increased more in rural areas and in the poorest quintile. Regressions did not show consistent associations between mortality and predictors. During the study period social determinants improved substantially, and dramatic out-of-health-sector and health-sector changes occurred. Rural areas and the poorest quintile experienced greater NMR reduction. This progress was driven

  7. Killer whales and marine mammal trends in the North Pacific - A re-examination of evidence for sequential megafauna collapse and the prey-switching hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, P.R.; Burkanov, V.N.; Dahlheim, M.E.; Friday, N.A.; Fritz, L.W.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mizroch, S.A.; Muto, M.M.; Rice, D.W.; Barrett-Lennard, L. G.; Black, N.A.; Burdin, A.M.; Calambokidis, J.; Cerchio, S.; Ford, J.K.B.; Jacobsen, J.K.; Matkin, C.O.; Matkin, D.R.; Mehta, A.V.; Small, R.J.; Straley, J.M.; McCluskey, S.M.; VanBlaricom, G.R.; Clapham, P.J.

    2007-01-01

    Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling's removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50-100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

  8. Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amiri, M.; Kunst, A. E.; Janssen, F.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke

  9. Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amiri, M.; Kunst, A. E.; Janssen, F.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    2006-01-01

    Objectives: To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Study Design and Setting: Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke

  10. New Data for the Mesoamerican Directional Secular Variation Curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler-Arechalde, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Mesoamerican direction secular variation curve is an endless project, new data has been incorporated each year. The new data have radiocarbon dates associated. Wolfman in 1990 proposed the First Curve of Mesoamerica from 1 to 1200 DC. Since 2000 the UNAM´s Archaeomagnetism team has been working continuously by sampling 9 new sites and resampling new stages of Teotihuacan, Teopancazco and Tula. As a result of these investigations more than 70 new data has been annexed and the curve grows until 1600 DC. Data from El Tejar and DuBois has allowed to expand the curve until 1200 BC. An analysis of the incorporation of these new data is presented and the resultant curve is compared to the ARCH3K model.

  11. The sociology of late secularization: social divisions and religiosity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Steve

    2016-12-01

    At the start of the twentieth century the religious differed from the religiously indifferent largely in being religious. Now they differ in a number of other social and demographic characteristics that reduce interaction between the two populations further than simple numbers would require. That some of the main carriers of religion are immigrants or adherents of recently imported faiths reinforces the sense that religion is what other people do. In the context of the stock of religious knowledge being depleted and religion-taken-too-seriously being unpopular, the narrow demographic base of the religious makes conversion unlikely and thus makes the reversal of secularization unlikely. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2016.

  12. Detection of secular acceleration pulses from magnetic observatory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soloviev, Anatoly; Chulliat, Arnaud; Bogoutdinov, Shamil

    2017-09-01

    Geomagnetic secular variation (SV) models for the epochs before the space era are based on magnetic observatory data, which represent relatively rough and noisy time series due to magnetic storms, anthropogenic spikes and gaps. These models are often strongly regularized in time, so that fast variations in the SV are smoothed out. However, recent studies show that at least some of the geomagnetic jerks observed at the Earth's surface emanate from increasing and decreasing phases of secular acceleration (SA) pulses at the core surface. The latter ones are direct manifestation of the dynamic processes taking place in the liquid core. They were first detected from satellite data, which are both of higher quality and more homogeneous in terms of geographical coverage than ground data. Herein we attempt to carry out similar studies based on observatory data available for a longer period. The proposed method of SV modeling and recognition of SA pulses relies on a new technique of processing time series based on fuzzy mathematics. Comparison with the SV modeling results derived from satellite data shows their high conformity with the proposed method. Stability and reliability of the SA pulse recognition are demonstrated by the examples of well-studied SA pulses in 2006, 2009 and 2012. Moreover, several new SA pulses around 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2014 are discovered as a result of the new approach application to multi-observatory data analysis. The latter provides a basis for applying the method to older historical data and investigate SA pulses and geomagnetic jerks further back in time.

  13. Re-examining mortality sources and population trends in a declining seabird: using Bayesian methods to incorporate existing information and new data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Reid

    Full Text Available The population of flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes breeding on Lord Howe Island was shown to be declining from the 1970's to the early 2000's. This was attributed to destruction of breeding habitat and fisheries mortality in the Australian Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery. Recent evidence suggests these impacts have ceased; presumably leading to population recovery. We used Bayesian statistical methods to combine data from the literature with more recent, but incomplete, field data to estimate population parameters and trends. This approach easily accounts for sources of variation and uncertainty while formally incorporating data and variation from different sources into the estimate. There is a 70% probability that the flesh-footed shearwater population on Lord Howe continued to decline during 2003-2009, and a number of possible reasons for this are suggested. During the breeding season, road-based mortality of adults on Lord Howe Island is likely to result in reduced adult survival and there is evidence that breeding success is negatively impacted by marine debris. Interactions with fisheries on flesh-footed shearwater winter grounds should be further investigated.

  14. The tectonics and mineral systems of Proterozoic Western Australia: Relationships with supercontinents and global secular change

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    A.R.A. Aitken

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The cratonisation of Western Australia during the Proterozoic overlapped with several key events in the evolution of Earth. These include global oxidation events and glaciations, as well as the assembly, accretionary growth, and breakup of the supercontinents Columbia and Rodinia, culminating in the assembly of Gondwana. Globally, Proterozoic mineral systems evolved in response to the coupled evolution of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and lithosphere. Consequently, mineral deposits form preferentially in certain times, but they also require a favourable tectonic setting. For Western Australia a distinct plate-margin mineralisation trend is associated with Columbia, whereas an intraplate mineralisation trend is associated with Rodinia and Gondwana, each with associated deposit types. We compare the current Proterozoic record of ore deposits in Western Australia to the estimated likelihood of ore-deposit formation. Overall likelihood is estimated with a simple matrix-based approach that considers two components: The “global secular likelihood” and the “tectonic setting likelihood”. This comparative study shows that at least for the studied ore-deposit types, deposits within Western Australia developed at times, and in tectonic settings compatible with global databases. Nevertheless, several deposit types are either absent or poorly-represented relative to the overall likelihood models. Insufficient exploration may partly explain this, but a genuine lack of deposits is also suggested for some deposit types. This may relate either to systemic inadequacies that inhibited ore-deposit formation, or to poor preservation. The systematic understanding on the record of Western Australia helps to understand mineralisation processes within Western Australia and its past connections in Columbia, Rodinia and Gondwana and aids to identify regions of high exploration potential.

  15. Secular Change and Inter-annual Variability of the Gulf Stream Position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisagni, J. J.; Gangopadhyay, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) "conveyer belt" that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of annual mean Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52° W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 70°, 65°, 60° and 55° W show a southward secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to the west. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer LC transport increases near 52° W. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52° W is significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55° W at a lag of +1-year. Spectral analysis reveals inter-annual peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (65°-55°W) and LC transport for 1993-2013. A volume calculation using the LC rms residual of +1.04 Sv near 52° W results in an estimated GSNW residual of 79 km, or 63% of the observed 125.6 km (1.13°) rms value at 55° W. A similar volume calculation using the positive long-term, upper-layer LC transport trend accounts for 68% of the observed southward shift of the GSNW over the 1993-2013 period. Our work provides observational evidence of direct interaction between the upper layers of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres within the North Atlantic over secular and inter-annual time scales as suggested by previous workers.

  16. The role of religious faith, spirituality and existential considerations among heart patients in a secular society: relation to depressive symptoms 6 months post acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekke-Hansen, Sidsel; Pedersen, Christina G; Thygesen, Kristian; Christensen, Søren; Waelde, Lynn C; Zachariae, Robert

    2014-06-01

    We explored the significance of religious faith/coping and spirituality and existential considerations reported during hospitalisation on depressive symptoms at 6-month follow-up and addressed patients' perceived influence of their faith among 97 consecutive acute coronary syndrome patients (72.2% male patients; mean age, 60.6 years) in a secular society. All faith variables were found unrelated to depressive symptoms. Having unambiguous religious or spiritual faith at follow-up was associated with a perceived positive influence of this faith on quality of life and the disease itself compared to patients with ambiguous faith. These findings underscore the importance of examining degrees of faith in secular settings. © The Author(s) 2013.

  17. Holocene paleomagnetic secular variation records from the East China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Zheng, H.; Kissel, C.; Laj, C. E.; Deng, C.

    2011-12-01

    Paleomagnetic study on marine sediments can provide continuous, high-resolution records of short-term fluctuations of the Earth's magnetic field, which can be used for inter-core correlations at regional scale. However, Holocene paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) records from marine sediment are still rare. Detailed paleomagnetic and rock magnetic studies were conducted on u-channel samples from rapidly deposited sediment core MD06-3040 (27.72°N, 121.78°E; 46 m water depth), on the East China Sea (ECS) inner continental shelf Holocene marine sequence, during IMAGES XIV Marco Polo 2 cruise on the R. V. Marion Dufresne (IPEV). The 19.22 m long core spans the entire Holocene, with theoretical high-resolution of about 20-year for paleomagnetic studies, and paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) for the last 7500 years was retrieved from the uppermost 15.8 m fine-grained sediments. The dominant carrier of the remanent magnetization is magnetite, with some contributions from iron sulfide, such as greigite below 3.5 m, due to post-depositional diagenesis. The Characteristic Remanent magnetization (ChRM) is well defined by a single magnetization component and Maximum Angular Deviations (MAD) lower than 5°. Therefore, the information of paleomagnetic directions is still preserved after diagenetic alteration. Inclination of core MD06-3040 presents seven relatively high peaks, and declination presents four obvious eastern ward drifts during the last 7500 years. These variations can be well compared to that obtained from lakes in Japan, and some features are also comparable to the records from Europe with temporal offset. The power spectrum analysis shows that the inclination has significant power at the period of ~660 years, and declination at the period of ~3500 years and 1300 years. These periods are similar to that from Japan and North America, in which the period of ~1300 years for declination has been reported in many areas around the world. The observed PSV from

  18. Constitutional legitimacy: Sharia Law, Secularism and the Social Compact

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    Zia Akhtar

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the general points relating to the application of Sharia law which challenges legislators in the political instability of a number of Middle Eastern countries. The question explored is how governments of these countries who are facing discontent can work towards constitutional governance. As an example comparison is made between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Indonesia with the largest Muslim populations. In Pakistan an inherited Westminster Parliamentary system with a common law codified dated at the time of the British rule is supplemented by criminal penalties as present in the Hudood ordinances. These codes enforce punishments for some crimes and these were promulgated in the early 1980s during the reign of the Pakistani conservative military government. These different layers of jurisprudence do not accord with a uniform legal precedence and creates a clash between liberals and the fundamentalists who want an all pervasive Sharia law. The Pakistani legal canon of Islamic law has been restricted by the secular ideology of the state which has parallels in other Asian countries with a Muslim majority. However, there is an issue of compatibility of a secular ideology and the application of Sharia. It needs an exposition of thought that takes account of the enlightenment in Europe which led to the social contract theory in the 18th century. This theory rejects the narrow interpretation of divine authority and presents the jurist with a challenge to make modernize the laws. In recent times Muslim academics have adopted a critical approach against the tenets of conservatism in temporal Islam and called them unrepresentative of the true spirit of the Sharia. The present turmoil in the Arab countries has raised the question of legitimacy and the need arises to evaluate the principles of the Compact of Medina, which was proclaimed by the first Islamic state, and secondly, to enquire if the adoption of Sharia can be made

  19. Geomagnetic secular variations at the Mesozoic-Cenozoic boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, V.; Veselovskiy, R. V.; fluteau, F.; Latyshev, A.; Fetisova, A.

    2013-05-01

    Study of changes in geomagnetic secular variations through geological time is essential to document the Earth's magnetic field evolution and provides an important constraint for geodynamo modeling. Moreover, knowledge of the secular variations value for any specific geological epoch (paleosecular variations - PSV) may give an additional tool to constrain the duration of emplacement and cooling of various magmatic bodies including flows, dykes and sills. In order to obtain a reliable estimate of value of PSV at the Paleozoic-Mezozoic boundary we have undertaken a paleomagnetic study of several important volcanic sections of the Siberian Permo-Triassic (P-T) traps from the Noril'sk and Maymecha-Kotuy areas. In total we have studied 80 flows from the Maymecha-Kotuy region and 54 flows from the Noril'sk region. In 116 of them we have isolated high temperature component, which we interpret to be primary. These data have been combined with results obtained earlier by Heunemann et al, 2004 from 76 volcanic flows from other trap sections of the Noril'sk region. Then, according to approach described in Chenet et al. (2008) we have identified directional groups (DG) and individual directions (ID) corresponding to brief volcanic pulses and individual eruptions. The mean directions of these DGs and IDs have been considered as snapshots of the changing P-T geomagnetic field and used for calculation of the scatter of virtual geomagnetic poles, which is commonly accepted to be a measure of paleosecular variations. Obtained result (17+1.9-2.2)° taken together with nearly coeval data from East Kazakhstan (Lyons et al., 2001) and South-Western China (Liu et al., 2012) fits well with values expected from latitude dependence compiled by McElhinny and McFadden (1997) from data for last 5 million years and from latitude dependence predicted from model TK03 (Tauxe and Kent, 2004). Thus these results suggest that geomagnetic field variations at the Permo-Triassic boundary were the about

  20. The „Pussy riot“ case and the post-secular hybrids

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    Uzlaner Dmitrij

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of the “Pussy riot” case and the peculiarities of Russian postsecularism. Special emphasis is placed on the phenomenon of post-secular hybrids, i.e. the overcoming of the situation of social differentiation between religion and other social subsystems (one of the main distinctive features of secularization. It is claimed that the materials of the trial against “Pussy riot” make evident the appearance in Russia of at least three post-secular hybrids: 1 the blending of religion and politics; 2 installation of religious norms into the public order of the secular state; 3 significance of confessional legal experts as part of the new “ideological state apparatus”.

  1. Magnetic Field - Secular Variation of the Declination Component for the Epoch 2010.0 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer shows isoporic lines (lines of equal annual change, or secular variation, in the declination of the Earth's magnetic field), derived from the...

  2. Magnetic Field - Secular Variation of the Inclination Component for the Epoch 2010.0 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer shows lines of equal annual change (secular variation) in the inclination of the Earth's magnetic field, derived from the International Geomagnetic...

  3. Surviving Secularization: Masking the Spirit in the Jankunu (John Canoe Festivals of the Caribbean

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    Kenneth M. Bilby

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Jankunu (Jonkonnu, Junkanoo, an Afro-Caribbean Yuletide tradition centering on masked dance, is generally characterized as a secular festival. This article presents contemporary ethnographic evidence showing that certain older variants of the tradition remain closely connected with African-derived religious concepts and practices. On the basis of this new evidence, the author argues for a reexamination and reevaluation of the historical significance of this tradition, which even today, despite its ostensible secularity, has vaguely "spiritual" associations for many in the region—including some of those who represent it as "secular." The article interprets this apparent contradiction as the result of a historical process of secularization (in response to the stigmatization of African modes of religiosity that was only partly successful.

  4. Patriarchal pronatalism: Islam, secularism and the conjugal confines of Turkey’s IVF boom

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    Zeynep B. Gürtin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article constructs an explanatory history of the introduction, growth and social regulation of IVF in Turkey, labelling it a form of ‘patriarchal pronatalism’. Based on sociological research between 2006 and 2010, including analysis of regulatory and media materials as well as an in-depth clinical ethnography and interviews with IVF patients and practitioners, the paper contextualizes Turkey’s ‘IVF boom’ within the wider and governmental contexts of reproductive politics. Examining both the legal framework and the surrounding rhetoric, it highlights how the nationally pertinent tensions between Islam and secularism unfold in this particular field, and traces how the rise of neo-conservatism and the expansion of the role of religious organizations and discourses has led to the promotion and development of assisted reproduction, but only within strictly enforced conjugal confines. This work contributes not only to the significant sociological and anthropological scholarship on the globalization, localization and repro-national character of assisted reproductive technologies around the world, but also to the growing scholarship examining the contours of reproductive citizenship, gender relations and family formation in contemporary Turkey.

  5. Secular precessing compact binary dynamics, spin and orbital angular momentum flip-flops

    OpenAIRE

    Tápai, Márton; Keresztes, Zoltán; Gergely, László Árpád

    2016-01-01

    We derive the conservative secular evolution of precessing compact binaries to second post-Newtonian order accuracy, with leading-order spin-orbit, spin-spin and mass quadrupole-monopole contributions included. The emerging closed system of first-order differential equations evolves the pairs of polar and azimuthal angles of the spin and orbital angular momentum vectors together with the periastron angle. In contrast with the instantaneous dynamics, the secular dynamics is autonomous. This se...

  6. Ethics of Surrogacy: A Comparative Study of Western Secular and Islamic Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Sharmin; Nordin, Rusli Bin; Bin Shamsuddin, Ab Rani; Mohd Nor, Hanapi Bin; Al-Mahmood, Abu Kholdun

    2012-01-01

    The comparative approach regarding the ethics of surrogacy from the Western secular and Islamic bioethical view reveals both commensurable and incommensurable relationship. Both are eager to achieve the welfare of the mother, child and society as a whole but the approaches are not always the same. Islamic bioethics is straightforward in prohibiting surrogacy by highlighting the lineage problem and also other social chaos and anarchy. Western secular bioethics is relative and mostly follows a utilitarian approach. PMID:23864994

  7. Equilibrium real interest rates and secular stagnation: An empirical analysis for euro area member countries

    OpenAIRE

    Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Is secular stagnation a valid concern for Euro Area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. We apply our approach to twelve Euro Area countries, since heterogeneity among member countries has become considerably extensive since the beginning of the financial crisis. Hence, the question of secular stagnation has to be answered at the country level. Ou...

  8. Perils of the Future: A Discussion of Marx’s Secularization Thesis

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    Clava Brodsky

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available As both a journalist and a philosopher, Karl Marx had one eye on the present and the other on the future. This dual concern is particularly clear in On the Jewish Question, where Marx persons his theory of secularization. In this article, I claim that his account of political secularization is far more convincing; while his account of human emancipation – his wish for the future – rests on a thin reading of human rights.

  9. Institutional Image: Secular and Marketing Influences on Christian Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodrow, James

    2004-01-01

    An interesting trend is sweeping the nation's Christian higher education movement. During the 20th century, Christian liberal arts colleges and universities were frequently established and founded with names that included their denominational affiliation or the word "Christian" in them. In recent years, the trend has been to omit any religious…

  10. Prevalence and Trends of Isolated Systolic Hypertension among Korean Adults: the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1998-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Na Rae; Kim, Hyeon Chang

    2015-11-01

    Systolic and diastolic blood pressure may have different effects on cardiovascular disease, but limited data is available for hypertension subtypes in the Korean population. Thus, the prevalence, and absolute number of hypertension subtypes among Korean adults was estimated. The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1998-2012 was used to estimate the prevalence and absolute number of each hypertension subtype among Korean adults aged ≥20 years. Hypertension was classified into four subtypes: treated hypertension (TH), isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and combined systolic and diastolic hypertension (SDH). In 2012, approximately 9.5 million adults were estimated to have hypertension, which consists of 5675671 TH (60.0%), 954253 ISH (10.1%), 1649486 IDH (17.4%), and 1175506 SDH (12.4%). Between 2010 and 2012, the proportion of IDH steadily decreased with age, but ISH increased especially in older ages (≥40). Between 1998 and 2012, TH markedly increased from 1.4 million to 5.7 million while the number of untreated hypertension remained relatively constant. During the same time, the number of hypertensive elderlies increased from 507000 to 2822000 along with rapid ageing of the Korean population. Despite of significant improvement in treatment rate, there are still around 583000 elderlies with untreated hypertension (423000 ISH; 42000 IDH; 118000 SDH) as of 2012. Although the prevalence of hypertension has been constant over the last decades, absolute number of people with hypertension has been increasing. Along with the rapid population ageing, the number of elderly hypertension is increasing and the ISH is also becoming more prevalent.

  11. Trends in Menarcheal Age between 1955 and 2009 in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talma, H.; Schonbeck, Y.; van Dommelen, P.; Bakker, B.; van Buuren, S.; Hirasing, R.A.

    2013-01-01

    Aim: To assess and compare the secular trend in age at menarche in Dutch girls (1955-2009) and girls from Turkish and Moroccan descent living in the Netherlands (1997-2009). Methods: Data on growth and maturation were collected in 20,867 children of Dutch, Turkish and Moroccan descent in 2009 by

  12. Trends in menarcheal age between 1955 and 2009 in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talma, H.; Schönbeck, Y.; Dommelen, P. van; Bakker, B.; Buuren, S. van; Hirasing, R.

    2013-01-01

    Aim: To assess and compare the secular trend in age at menarche in Dutch girls (1955-2009) and girls from Turkish and Moroccan descent living in the Netherlands (1997-2009). Methods: Data on growth and maturation were collected in 20,867 children of Dutch, Turkish and Moroccan descent in 2009 by

  13. The Mesoamerica Secular Variation Curve. A continuous research since 1999.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler-Arechalde, A. M.; Caballero-Miranda, C. I.; Gogichaichvili, A.; Beramendi-Orosco, L.; Gonzalez-Hernández, G.; Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J.

    2009-05-01

    Since 1999 we have been working on improving the Mesoamerica Secular Variation Curve. We re-sampled some sites that Wolfman initially used in its first proposal of this Curve, such as Teotihuacan, Teopancazco and Tula. Wolfman 's curve only had 4 radiocarbon dates directly associated with the sampled sites; the other dating were actually stratigraphic and ceramic correlations. More than 28 radiocarbon dates have been incorporated from AD 60 to 560 from samples associated to Teotihuacan civilization, 13 more from Xochicalco and 10 from Tula. More than 1000 specimens, from 12 twelve sites were fully processed with alternated field demagnetization We have been working during the excavation campaigns and training the archeologist to get their samples. A 100-year moving window was employed to get the average poles. A Bayesian statistic has been employed in order to improve our curve. We still denote a lack of data from two time intervals: from 0 to 200 and from 1000 to 1600. We are now working on it, collecting samples from these periods, such as those from La Joya, Ver, which are now been processing and from which some preliminary results will be reported.

  14. Outskirts of spiral galaxies: result of a secular evolution process?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakos, J.; Trujillo, I.; Azzollini, R.; Beckman, J. E.; Pohlen, M.

    We present our recent results on the properties of the outskirts of disk galaxies. In particular, we focus on spiral galaxies with stellar disk truncations in their radial surface brightness profiles. Using SDSS, UDF and GOODS data we show how the position of the break (i.e., a direct estimator of the size of the stellar disk) evolves with time since z˜1. Our findings agree with an evolution on the radial position of the break by a factor of 1.3±0.1 in the last 8 Gyr for galaxies with similar stellar masses. We also present radial color gradients and how they evolve with time. At all redshift we find a radial inside-out bluing reaching a minimum at the position of the break radius, this minimum is followed by a reddening outwards. Our results constrain several galaxy disk formation models and favour a scenario where stars are formed inside the break radius and are relocated in the outskirts of galaxies through secular processes.

  15. A Secular Resonant Origin for the Loneliness of Hot Jupiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spalding, Christopher; Batygin, Konstantin

    2017-10-01

    The origin of hot Jupiters, giant planets residing within about one tenth of an AU from their host stars, remains a long-standing problem in exoplanetary science. Traditionally, these objects are thought to form further out, before migrating to their short-period orbits, though the possibility of an in-situ formation pathway has recently gathered theoretical support. A key clue to their formation is their apparent "loneliness,” that all transiting examples except one lack close-in, co-transiting planetary companions. In contrast, the slightly more distant "warm” Jupiters possess close-in planetary companions in about 50% of cases. This dichotomy has led to the suggestion that two separate formation pathways are required to explain the two classes of objects. In this work we will demonstrate that the enhanced loneliness of hot Jupiters naturally arises owing to secular perturbations from the quadrupole moment of the host star soon after dispersal of the protoplanetary disk. In this way, we place warm Jupiters and hot Jupiters into a unified, theoretical framework.

  16. The Islam in Islamic art history: secularism and public discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Shaw

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the apparent affiliation between religion and art implied in the nomenclature ‘Islamic art history,’ the field has to date relied primarily on secular methodologies. This has limited the potential not only to engage actively in the real-world function of art exhibitions as cultural mediators, but also to use Islamic art to rethink understandings of both the religion and art itself. Instead, this essay argues, the field should engage with a broadened understanding of Islamic discourse as expressed through the interplay of the visual arts with mutually intertwined philosophical, poetic, and religious discourses. In so doing, the discipline of Islamic art history has the potential to enrich the public understanding not only of Islamic art as an aesthetic phenomenon, but also as an expression of aspects of Islam that are often excluded from both ‘Orientalist’ and Islamist approaches to the religion. This essay argues for a more nuanced understanding of ‘Islam’ within Islamic art studies, questioning the binary divide between culture and religion, the exclusions created through ethnocentrism and nationalism, the presentation of Islam as a historical rather than a living faith, and the use of Islam as a trope of heritage rather than as one of a panoply of conceptual frameworks for the modern and contemporary art of cultures that are informed to varying extents by Islam.

  17. The Democratic Turn in the Secularism-Religion Debate

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    Diego Bermejo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The revival of the religion in the new context of a global world-society, which is as modern as religious, doesn´t happen only as a sociological result of the dismantling of the postcolonial world –which denies the secularist forecast of the religion decline and provides the pluralism phenomenon with an unthought-of ethical and political complexity and virtuality– , but as a result of the modern reason crisis too, that makes reason rationally unable to justify political life relying on a rationalist ethical monism. The rationalist last foundation crisis affects as much the fundamentalist religious claims –which pretend to interpret the so called “religion resurgence or religion revival” in a “postsecular society” in a rapidly triumphal way, as the secularist claims which pretend to deny the religion any ethical and political virtuality in the public sphere. The democratic turn, antiauthoritarian and antidogmatic, coherently demanded within the context of the modern reason crisis by three well-known representatives of the postmetaphysical, hermeneutical and pragmatist philosophy, such as Vattimo, Habermas and Rorty, replaces the debate between secularism and religion on the basis of true questions with the other on the basis of solidarity questions.

  18. Resonant and secular phenomena in the libration of the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yu. V.

    1993-10-01

    Principal and subtle regularities, resonant and secular phenomena in the rotational motion of the Moon are investigated on the basis of the analytical solution of a model problem, in which the Moon and the Earth are considered as absolute rigid nonspherical bodies, and the Sun and the other planets are treated as material points. The orbital motion of all these bodies are considered as known and described by analytical theories. An analytical solution of the problem has been built on the basis of the canonical equations of the rotational motion of the Moon in the Andoyer's variables using the method of constructing conditionlly-periodic solutions of an Hamiltonian system depending upon a small parameter, and researching general solutions in their neighbourhood. The solution so constructed is used for analyzing the principal and subtle regularities, resonance phenomena in the rotational motion of the Moon, i.e. for studying the principal departure from the Cassini's laws in the rotational motion of the Moon due to the long periodic orbital perturbations of Moon and Sun.

  19. WOMEN, CRIME AND THE SECULAR COURT IN EIGHTEENTH CENTURY CLUJ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Fehér

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this presentation is to address the issue of female criminality in early modern Cluj, and to analyze women’s position before the law. Our investigation is based on the records of the secular Court from the town Cluj, where we have identified more than 250 cases of women accused of fornication, adultery, witchcraft, infanticide, theft and drunkenness, poisoning, swearing and slander. There were a significant number of female convictions during the century, from which most ended with light sentences, such as banishment, corporal punishments, stigmatizations with hot iron, mutilations and only occasionally death. We would like to analyze in detail the types of crime and their punishments presenting the legal background, the jurisdiction and the habitual practices of the Court. We would also like to underline the importance of the narrative strategies used in these inquisitorial trials, since our documents reveal female criminality from a male perspective, as in these times men ran the legal system, consequently the Court records, in our reading contain moral, legal and sexual elements of a male discourse on female crime.

  20. The Vertigo of Secularization: the innovative Notion of Political Authority

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Pía Lara Zavala

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available El artículo aborda la relación entre religión y política, centrándose en el problema de la autoridad política. La expresión “vértigo de la secularización” se emplea aquí para describir los temores que experimentamos al afrontar el problema de pensar nuestras propias normas políticas. La autora examina tres modelos distintos de autoridad política: el que representa la tradición religiosa cívica (Maquiavelo, Hobbes y Rousseau; el modelo puramente secular (Weber y un modelo muy original e innovador (Hannah Arendt. A continuación, muestra cómo al traducir los contenidos de la religión al ámbito político, empleándolos también para configurar nuevos espacios políticos, nos encontramos con una idea innovadora de autoridad. En su opinión, la ejemplar noción de autoridad política de Hannah Arendt es la que se adapta mejor a la que la autora denomina idea innovadora de autoridad.

  1. Visiting Ground Zero: sacred echoes in secular rites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard C. Martin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past several years since September 11, 2001, large numbers of people from across the continent and around the world have visited the site of the devastated World Trade Center in New York. Scholars in religious studies and the social sciences have noticed that there were and continue to be (though less so over time religious aspects to the observances and performances of visitors to ‘Ground Zero’, as the site of the former World Trade Center almost immediately came to be called. A central argument of this article is that the ongoing stream of visitors to Ground Zero, strictly speaking, does not qualify this phenomenon as a pilgrimage in the traditional religious sense; it is more akin to the growing phenomenon of religious tourism, although it is not exactly that either. Nonetheless the event of 9/11 generated many ritualized activities; the article will also address the pro­cess scholars call ‘ritualization’ and related terms in ritual studies. Although ritualized performances at Ground Zero do not amount to a pilgrimage in the narrow sense that historians of religion mean when they analyse traditional pilgrimages, such as the Hajj to Mecca, or following the Via Dolorosa in Jerusalem, visiting Ground Zero has taken on both secular and religious elements.

  2. Tendência secular da peste no Estado do Ceará, Brasil Secular plague trend in Ceará State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonia Ivoneida Aragão

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Após a sua introdução no Ceará, Brasil, em 1900, a peste focalizou-se em sete complexos ecológicos: Chapada do Araripe e Serras da Ibiapaba, do Baturité, do Machado, das Matas, da Pedra Branca e de Uruburetama. As atividades de vigilância nesses focos no período de 1935/2004 foram desenvolvidas sucessivamente pelo Departamento Nacional de Saúde, Serviço Nacional de Peste, Departamento Nacional de Endemias Rurais, Superintendência de Campanhas de Saúde Pública, Fundação Nacional de Saúde e finalmente pela Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. A análise dos dados levantados sobre a ocorrência de casos humanos nesses 70 anos permite identificar diferentes padrões de circulação da enfermidade na população humana, caracterizados pela alternância de momentos de elevadas incidências e de silêncio, possibilitando estabelecer uma periodização cronológica com características epidemiológicas próprias. Conclui-se desses resultados que a peste ainda deve ser considerada uma ameaça potencial, o que justifica revitalizar as ações de vigilância epidemiológica, o que só ocorrerá com o fortalecimento de todas as instâncias do Sistema Único de Saúde.After its introduction into the State of Ceará, Brazil, in 1900, the plague was established in seven ecological complexes: Chapada do Araripe and the Ibiapaba, Baturité, Machado, Matas, Pedra Branca, and Uruburetama mountains. These natural foci were monitored successively from 1935 to 2004 by the National Health Department, National Plague Service, National Department of Rural Endemics, Superintendency of Public Health Campaigns, National Health Foundation, and finally by the National Health Surveillance Secretariat. Data analysis on human cases during these 70 years allowing identifying different plague circulation patterns in the human population, alternating high incidence with silent periods and characterizing a chronological periodicity with unique epidemiological characteristics, besides concluding that plague should still be considered a potential threat, thus justifying the revitalization of surveillance measures by strengthening all levels in the Unified National Health System.

  3. Excess weight and adiposity in children and adolescents in Havana, Cuba: prevalence and trends, 1972 to 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esquivel, Mercedes; González, Ciro

    2010-01-01

    Rising prevalence of excess weight in children and adolescents is a serious public health problem in both developed and developing countries, associated with a growing burden of chronic non-communicable diseases in youth and adults. In Cuba, population-based growth and development surveys have been conducted since the 1970s, the latest in 2005. Estimate prevalence of overweight, obesity and high adiposity in children and adolescents aged -19 years in Havana, Cuba, in 1972, 1993 and 2005, and describe secular trends in these conditions in the periods observed. A retrospective, descriptive study examined data from growth and development surveys conducted in Havana in 1972, 1993 and 2005, which obtained Body Mass Index (BMI) and left mid-arm fat area (MAFA) in the population aged economy improved. Continued monitoring is required to detect sustained or rising prevalence of these conditions and to develop interventions to reduce health risks.

  4. Climatic variability and trends in the surface waters of coastal British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Patrick F.; Masson, Diane

    2014-01-01

    Multi-decadal records of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) collected at a set of lighthouse stations are used to examine climatic variability and trends in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Particular attention is given to relations between the water property anomalies and variability in coastal freshwater discharge and alongshore wind stress. Within the Strait of Georgia, SSS anomalies are closely related to Fraser River discharge anomalies. Along the Pacific coast, anomalies in alongshore wind stress and freshwater runoff have the characteristics of white noise processes. A cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that SST and SSS variability along the open west coast is consistent with the response of a first-order autoregressive process driven by anomalous alongshore wind stress and coastal freshwater discharge, respectively. Thus climatic variability of SST and SSS along the Pacific coast of British Columbia occurs, in part, through the integration of noisy atmospheric forcing and coastal precipitation. Seasonal correlations show that SST is strongly related to wind stress during winter and fall. Conversely, SSS is relatively weakly related to the alongshore wind during spring, suggesting that variability in upwelling makes only a modest contribution to variability of SSS in the nearshore environment. Consistent with previous studies, secular trends indicate long-term warming and freshening of the coastal ocean at most stations. It is shown that long-term SST trends can be obscured by the pronounced climatic variability of these waters, requiring that time series extend for several decades to be reliably detected.

  5. Secular change and inter-annual variability of the Gulf Stream position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisagni, James J.; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra

    2017-07-01

    The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) ;conveyer belt; that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52°W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 55°, 60°, and 65°W show a significant southward (negative) secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to a small but insignificant southward trend at 70°W. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer (200 m) LC transport near 52°W is positive. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52°W along the southwestern Grand Banks are significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55°W at a lag of +1-year, with positive (negative) LC transport residuals corresponding to southward (northward) GSNW positions one year later. The Taylor-Stephens index (TSI) computed from the first principal component of the GSNW position from 79° to 65°W shows a similar relationship with a more distal LC index computed along altimeter ground track 250 located north of the Grand Banks across Hamilton Bank in the western Labrador Sea. Increased (decreased) sea height differences along ground track 250 are significantly correlated with a more southward (northward) TSI two years later (lag of +2-years). Spectral analysis of IAV reveals corresponding spectral peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (70°-55°W) and LC transport near 52°W for the 1993-2013 period

  6. Social structure, infectious diseases, disasters, secularism, and cultural change in America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossmann, Igor; Varnum, Michael E W

    2015-03-01

    Why do cultures change? The present work examined cultural change in eight cultural-level markers, or correlates, of individualism in the United States, all of which increased over the course of the 20th century: frequency of individualist themes in books, preference for uniqueness in baby naming, frequency of single-child relative to multichild families, frequency of single-generation relative to multigeneration households, percentage of adults and percentage of older adults living alone, small family size, and divorce rates (relative to marriage rates). We tested five key hypotheses regarding cultural change in individualism-collectivism. As predicted by previous theories, changes in socioeconomic structure, pathogen prevalence, and secularism accompanied changes in individualism averaged across all measures. The relationship with changes in individualism was less robust for urbanization. Contrary to previous theories, changes in individualism were positively (as opposed to negatively) related to the frequency of disasters. Time-lagged analyses suggested that only socioeconomic structure had a robust effect on individualism; changes in socioeconomic structure preceded changes in individualism. Implications for anthropology, psychology, and sociology are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Recycled crust and the secular cooling of mantle plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazel Dondi, E.; Herzberg, C. T.; Vidito, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    Current models suggest that the massive basaltic production responsible for the emplacement of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPS) during the Permian-Paleocene may represent the initial phases of some of the mantle plumes that feed the current ocean island basalts (OIB). In some cases this magmatism was so voluminous that it produced global environmental impacts. Recent petrological, geochemical and geophysical studies of some of these localities like Samoa, Hawaii, Galapagos provide evidence that melting is related to a true mantle plume that originates from a boundary layer beneath the upper mantle. Thus, plume-related magmas produced in OIB and LIPS and their connecting plume tracks provide evidence on mantle temperature, size and composition of heterogeneities, and deep geochemical cycles. Although a lot of work has been done on LIPS and OIB, no complete record of the evolution of a mantle plume is available to this point. Galapagos-related lavas provide a complete record of the evolution of a mantle plume since the plume's initial stages in the Cretaceous. In the case of the Galapagos, our work suggests a decrease from TP(max) of 1650 °C in the Cretaceous to 1500 °C in the present day. Our recent work on the Galapagos Islands and the preliminary work on older Galapagos-related terranes suggest that this secular cooling is related with increasing amounts of recycled crust in the plume. Detailed olivine chemistry shows that although peridotite is the dominant source lithology of the Galapagos Plume, a recycled pyroxenite component is also significant in both isotopically enriched and depleted domains of the archipelago. We suggest that this possibly represents two separate bodies of recycled crust within the Galapagos mantle plume.

  8. Trends in childhood brain tumor incidence, 1973-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Razavi, Pedram; Barrington-Trimis, Jessica; Baldwin, Rachel Tobias; Asgharzadeh, Shahab; Cockburn, Myles; Tihan, Tarik; Preston-Martin, Susan

    2013-11-01

    In the mid-1980s, there was a rise in incidence rates of childhood brain tumors (CBT) in the United States that appeared to stabilize at a higher rate in the early 1990 s. An updated analysis of the pattern of CBT over the past 2 decades, with commentary on whether the elevated incidence rate has continued, is past due. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data to examine trends in incidence of CBT from 1973 through 2009. We examined age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIRs) and secular trends for all malignant brain tumors combined (SEER classification) by histologic tumor type and anatomic site. The incidence of CBT remained stable from 1987 to 2009 [annual percent change (APC) = 0.10; 95 % confidence intervals (CI) -0.39 to 0.61] with an AAIR for all CBT of 3.32 (95 % CI 3.22-3.42). The stability of rates in these two decades contrast the change that occurred in the mid-1980s (1983-1986), when the incidence of CBT increased by 53 % (APC = 14.06; 95 % CI 4.05-25.0). From 1983 to 1986, statistically significant rate increases were observed for pilocytic astrocytoma, PNET/medulloblastoma, and mixed glioma. Further, the rate of increase in pilocytic astrocytoma was similar to the rate of decrease for astrocytomas NOS from 1981 to 2009, suggesting a change from a more general to more specific classification. After the increase in rates in the mid-1980s, rates of CBT over the past two decades have stabilized. Changes in incidence rates of subtypes of tumors over this time period reflect changes both in classification of CBT and in diagnostic techniques.

  9. National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M; Lu, Yuan

    2011-01-01

    Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and thei......Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends...... and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories....

  10. Islamism, Secularism and the Woman Question in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring: Evidence from the Arab Barometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley M. Fox

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The uprisings that led to regime change during the early period of the Arab Spring were initially inclusive and pluralistic in nature, with men and women from every political and religious orientation engaging actively in political activities on the street and in virtual spaces. While there was an opening of political space for women and the inclusion of demands of marginalized groups in the activists’ agenda, the struggle to reimagine national identities that balance Islamic roots and secular yearnings is still ongoing in many countries in the region. This paper seeks to deepen understanding of the extent to which the pluralistic sentiments and openness to accepting the rights women have persisted following the uprising. We aim to examine changes in attitudes towards women’s equality in countries that underwent regime change through popular uprisings during revolutionary upheavals of the Arab Spring and in countries where regimes have remained unchanged. Using available data from consecutive rounds of the Arab Barometer survey, we examine changes in attitudes in nine countries with two rounds of Arab Barometer during and post Arab Spring (Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon, Sudan, Jordan, Iraq, Palestine. We find that support for “Muslim feminism” (an interpretation of gender equality grounded in Islam has increased over the period and particularly in Arab Spring countries, while support for “secular feminism” has declined. In most countries examined, relatively high degrees of support for gender equality co-exist with a preference for Islamic interpretations of personal status codes pertaining to women. We discuss the implications of these findings for academics and activists concerned with women’s rights in the Middle East North Africa (MENA.

  11. Non-linear development of secular gravitational instability in protoplanetary disks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tominaga, Ryosuke T.; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro; Takahashi, Sanemichi Z.

    2018-01-01

    We perform non-linear simulation of secular gravitational instability (GI) in protoplanetary disks, which has been proposed as a mechanism of planetesimal and multiple ring formation. Since the timescale of the growth of the secular GI is much longer than the Keplerian rotation period, we develop a new numerical scheme for a long-term calculation utilizing the concept of symplectic integration. With our new scheme, we first investigate the non-linear development of the secular GI in a disk without a pressure gradient in the initial state. We find that the surface density of dust increases by more than a factor of 100 while that of gas does not increase even by a factor of 2, which results in the formation of dust-dominated rings. A line mass of the dust ring tends to be very close to the critical line mass of a self-gravitating isothermal filament. Our results indicate that the non-linear growth of the secular GI provides a powerful mechanism to concentrate the dust. We also find that the dust ring formed via the non-linear growth of the secular GI migrates inward with a low velocity, which is driven by the self-gravity of the ring. We give a semi-analytical expression for the inward migration speed of the dusty ring.

  12. Technical Limitations in Merging Secular and Sacred Functions in Monumental Churches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatkowska, Ksenia

    2017-10-01

    The abandonment of churches and their adaptation for secular purposes is a current subject in Europe and worldwide. Most cases involve objects that were desacralized and then rebuilt as a whole object for alternative functions. Thus far, the merging of secular and sacred functions in one monumental Catholic church has not raised any issues. The paper describes the case of St. Catherine’s Church in Gdansk, Poland, where sacred function exists parallel to the new secular function being implemented. The study is based on the authentic, professional experience of the author. It describes the technical limitations arising from the need to ensure destinies for the optimal conditions of both sacred and secular function, while avoiding undesirable interference between them. The author further identifies architectural solutions most relevant to current requirements for protection of sacred zones in the church, for preservation of the monument, and for optimal function of a modern science museum. Significant design issues include: the inviolability of the sacred zone, preservation of the historical value of the monument, proper operation of new secular zones in compliance with contemporary standards of safety, performance of the assumed mission and profitability. The research indicates specific areas where the highest probability of collision exists between the sacred and profane and where technical problems are likely to occur.

  13. Shotgun weddings: trends in the sociopathology of marriage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, J

    1977-12-01

    The study was concerned with secular trends in forced marriages in N.S.W. The definition of forced marriage was first nuptial birth occurring within six months of the wedding. The typical demographic profile of such marriages portends a "risk" of marital breakdown and child abuse. Formal analysis of the time series showed upward trends in the proportions of brides "at risk" in the 16-17 age groups, and in the proportions of children "at risk" born to brides in the 16 to 22 age range. The findings were discussed critically, and some prophylactic and remedial social measures suggested.

  14. National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M.; Lin, John K.; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Cowan, Melanie J.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Lim, Stephen S.; Riley, Leanne M.; Ezzati, Majid; Abdeen, Ziad; Agyemang, Charles; Al Nsour, Mohannad; Ali, Mohamed M.; Ambady, Ramachandran; Babu, Bontha V.; Barbagallo, Carlo M.; Barceló, Alberto; Barreto, Sandhi; Barros, Henrique; Bautista, Leonelo E.; Bjerregaard, Peter; Björkelund, Cecilia; Bo, Simona; Bobak, Martin; Bonora, Enzo; Botana, Manuel A.; Bovet, Pascal; Breckenkamp, Juergen; Breteler, Monique M.; Broda, Grazyna; Brown, Ian J.; Bursztyn, Michael; de León, Antonio Cabrera; Casiglia, Edoardo; Castetbon, Katia; Chatterji, Somnath; Chen, Zhengming; Chen, Chien-Jen; Chua, Lily; Cífková, Renata; Cobiac, Linda J.; Cooper, Richard S.; Dankner, Rachel S.; Dong, Guang-Hui; Elliott, Paul; Erem, Cihangir; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fan, Jian-Gao; Ferreccio, Catterina; Firmo, Josélia O.; Fornés, Nélida S.; Fuchs, Flávio D.; Getz, Linn; Giampaoli, Simona; Gómez, Luis F.; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Carvajal, Ramiro Guerrero; Gulliford, Martin C.; Gupta, Prakash; Gureje, Oye; Hansen, Tine W.; He, Jiang; Heinrich, Joachim; Hennis, Anselm; Herrera, Victor M.; Ho, Suzanne C.; Ibrahim, M. Mohsen; Ikeda, Nayu; Jafar, Tazeen H.; Joffres, Michael R.; Jonas, Jost B.; Kamadjeu, Raoul M.; Karalis, Ioannis; Kastarinen, Mika J.; Katz, Joanne; Kelly, Paul; Khalilzadeh, Omid; Khang, Young-Ho; Kiechl, Stefan; Kim, Ki Woong; Kobayashi, Junji; Kubínová, Růzena; Kusuma, Yadlapalli S.; Lam, Tai H.; Lawes, Carlene M. M.; Le, Cai; Lee, Jeannette; Lin, Xu; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liu, Xiaoqing; Lorbeer, Roberto; Ma, Stefan; Ma, Guansheng; Magliano, Dianna J.; Makdisse, Marcia; Mancia, Giuseppe; Mbanya, Jean Claude N.; Miettola, Juhani; Minh, Hoang V.; Miranda, J. Jaime; Mohamed, Mostafa K.; Mohan, V.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Morales, Dante D.; Morgan, Karen; Muiesan, Lorenza M.; Muntoni, Sergio; Nabipour, Iraj; Nangia, Vinay; Neuhauser, Hannelore; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Olivieri, Oliviero; Onal, Ayse Emel; Onat, Altan; Oróstegui, Myriam; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Panza, Francesco; Pednekar, Mangesh S.; Pérez, Cynthia; Pérez-Fernández, Román; Pichardo, Rafael; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plans, Pedro; Poulter, Neil; Raitakari, Olli T.; Rampal, Sanjay; Rampal, Lekhraj; Redon, Josep; Revilla, Luis; Roaeid, Ragab B.; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Sanisoglu, Selim Y.; Sans, Susana; Schelleman, Hedi; Schneider, Ione J. C.; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, Eglé; Simons, Leon A.; Smith, Margaret; Soebardi, Suharko; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Stein, Aryeh D.; Stergiou, George S.; Stessman, Jochanan; Suka, Machi; Tambs, Kristian; Tesfaye, Fikru; Thorogood, Margaret; Tilvis, Reijo S.; Trenkwalder, Peter; Tuomilehto, Jaakko O.; Tzourio, Christophe; Vander Hoorn, Stephen; Vanderpump, Mark P.; Verschuren, Monique; Vioque, Jesus; Waspadji, Sarwono; Wilhelmsen, Lars; Willeit, Johann; Woodward, Mark; Xavier, André J.; Xu, Liang; Yang, Gonghuan; Yeh, Li-Chia; Yoon, Jin-Sang; You, Qisheng; Zhou, Maigeng

    2011-01-01

    Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends

  15. Temporal trends in educational inequalities in non-communicable diseases in Korea, 2007-2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyu Ri Kim

    Full Text Available Socioeconomic inequalities in non-communicable diseases are known to exist; however there is a paucity of research describing the secular trends in these inequalities. To this end, the current study aims to explore the recent time trends in social patterning of selected non-communicable diseases among Korean adults between 2007 and 2015.Using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES, temporal trends in socioeconomic inequalities in diabetes, arthritis, asthma and depressive symptoms were assessed across three time points. Respondents were adults aged 20 years or over (N = 47,091, 20,180 men and 26,911 women. Socioeconomic circumstance was assessed based on highest level of educational attainment. We estimated prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals using Poisson regression with robust variance estimation (adjusted for age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical activity separately for men and women. The magnitude of the inequalities was computed using the relative index of inequality (RII.In men, diabetes was not associated with educational attainment, while there was evidence of a negative association in women across surveys. Similar inverse associations were found with arthritis and depressive symptoms, but these associations were less clear for asthma. RII showed a non-significant increasing trend in educational disparities in depressive symptoms. Meanwhile, relative inequalities in diabetes, arthritis and asthma have narrowed. These trends were, in general, more pronounced in women.The findings of this study indicate higher burden of selected NCDs among the lower educational groups, particularly among women. In addition, our results indicated some improvements in inequalities in diabetes, arthritis and asthma in recent years. These findings have important implications for understanding the causes of social patterning of NCDs and for the targeting of effective interventions.

  16. Secular variation and geomagnetic main field in 1980 - 2000. A search for subdecadal variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardinski, I.; Holme, R.

    2003-04-01

    We present results of our study of the secular variation over the period 1980 - 2000. In a previous study of daily means of a single observatory we found some evidence that the 1969 jerk might have partly of external origin. In this study we are particular interested in the jerks occurred in 1991 and 2000. Our approach is based on decomposition of the magnetic potential into spherical harmonics; then each harmonic coefficients is expanded on a basis of cubic B--splines in time. Our global model gives separation of internal and external sources, and so will allow better characterization of the origin of the jerks. We apply our approach to first differences of observatory annual means and Secular Variation computed from repeat station data.Main field models based on high-quality satellite vector data from Magsat in 1980 and Oersted and CHAMP in 1999 - 2000 are used as constraints for the secular variation in 1980 and 2000.

  17. Constitutionalizing secularism, alternative secularisms or liberal-democratic constitutionalism?
    A critical reading of some Turkish, ECtHR and Indian Supreme Court cases on ‘secularism’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veit Bader

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent debates on the constitutional status of 'secularism' we can discern three positions. The first tries to overcome the absence of 'secularism' in most liberal-democratic constitutions by developing a more robust theory of constitutional secularism. The second develops theories of 'alternative secularisms'. The third, defended in this article, argues that we should drop secularism as a 'cacophonous' concept from our constitutional and legal language and replace it by liberal-democratic constitutionalism. I develop an analytical taxonomy of twelve different meanings of 'secularism' based on a comparative study of Turkish and Indian Supreme Court cases on secularism, and demonstrate that they are incompatible with each other and with the hard core of liberal-democratic constitutions. Next, I criticize the respective rulings in the Turkish and Indian context. Particularly in 'militant democracies', the appeal to a principle of 'secularism' turns out to be inimical to the liberal and to the democratic 'constitutional essentials'. I end with some normative recommendations on the role of constitutional review and judicial activism.

  18. Trends in communications satellites

    CERN Document Server

    Curtin, Denis J

    1979-01-01

    Trends in Communications Satellites offers a comprehensive look at trends and advances in satellite communications, including experimental ones such as NASA satellites and those jointly developed by France and Germany. The economic aspects of communications satellites are also examined. This book consists of 16 chapters and begins with a discussion on the fundamentals of electrical communications and their application to space communications, including spacecraft, earth stations, and orbit and wavelength utilization. The next section demonstrates how successful commercial satellite communicati

  19. Galaxy secular mass flow rate determination using the potential-density phase shift approach: Application to six nearby spiral galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaolei; Buta, Ronald J.

    2015-01-01

    Using the potential-density phase shift approach developed by the present authors in earlier publications, we estimate the magnitude of radial mass accretion/excretion rates across the disks of six nearby spiral galaxies (NGC 628, NGC 3351, NGC 3627, NGC 4321, NGC 4736, and NGC 5194) having a range of Hubble types. Our goal is to examine these rates in the context of bulge building and secular morphological evolution along the Hubble sequence. Stellar surface density maps of the sample galaxies are derived from SINGS 3.6 μm and SDSS i-band images using colors as an indicator of mass-to-light ratios. Corresponding molecular and atomic gas surface densities are derived from published CO (1-0) and HI interferometric observations of the BIMA SONG, THINGS, and VIVA surveys. The mass flow rate calculations utilize a volume-type torque integral to calculate the angular momentum exchange rate between the basic state disk matter and what we assume to be density wave modes in the observed galaxies. This volume-type integral contains the contributions from both the gravitational surface torque couple and the advective surface torque couple at the nonlinear, quasi-steady state of the wave modes, in sharp contrast to its behavior in the linear regime, where it contains only the contribution from the gravitational surface torque couple used by Lynden-Bell & Kalnajs in 1972. The potential-density phase shift approach yields angular momentum transport rates several times higher than those estimated using the Lynden-Bell and Kalnajs approach. And unlike Lynden-Bell and Kalnajs, whose approach predicts zero mass redistribution across the majority of the disk surface (apart from the isolated locations of wave-particle resonances) for quasi-steady waves, the current approach leads to predictions of significant mass redistribution induced by the quasi-steady density wave modes, enough for the morphological types of disks to evolve substantially within its lifetime. This difference

  20. Signal from noise in geomagnetic field modelling: denoising data for secular variation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardinski, I.; Holme, R.

    2011-05-01

    We analyse the residuals between a continuous geomagnetic field model of the internal field, C3FM, and observed secular variation. A large part of the residual variations correlate closely with the DST-index, suggesting an origin from unmodelled external field variations. Removal of this signal enhances the resolution of fine-scale detail in secular variation; this is useful in considering the phenomenology of geomagnetic jerks. The residual variations between different observatories show even better correlation, suggesting the possibility of the construction of a proxy for the DST-index. Notable cross-correlation is also seen between the residuals and DST-index with a lag of about 55 months.

  1. El clero secular en Europa en la Baja Edad Media. Bibliografía

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cárcel Ortí, Mª Milagros

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The bibliography covers all aspects of Medieval Studies about the Secular Clergy within the date range 1100 to 1500. The geographical range is the continent of Europe of catholic tradition. Items are classified by countries.

    La bibliografía abarca solo los aspectos de los estudios medievales sobre el clero secular, desde 1100 al 1500. El espacio geográfico comprende el continente europeo de tradición católica. Los ítems se ordenan por países.

  2. Postsecularism, piety and fanaticism: reflections on Jürgen Habermas' and Saba Mahmood’s critiques of secularism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Y.

    2011-01-01

    This article analyses how recent critiques of secularism in political philosophy and cultural anthropology might productively be combined and contrasted with each other. I will show that Jürgen Habermas' postsecularism takes insufficient account of elementary criticisms of secularism on the part of

  3. Longitudinal trends in diet and effects of sex, race, and education on dietary quality score change: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijtsma, Femke P C; Meyer, Katie A; Steffen, Lyn M; Shikany, James M; Van Horn, Linda; Harnack, Lisa; Kromhout, Daan; Jacobs, David R

    2012-03-01

    The food supply and dietary preferences have changed in recent decades. We studied time- and age-related individual and population-wide changes in a dietary quality score and food groups during 1985-2006. The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study of 5115 black and white men and women [aged 18-30 y at year 0 (1985-1986)] assessed diet at examinations at study years 0, 7 (1992-1993), and 20 (2005-2006). The dietary quality score, which was validated by its inverse association with cardiovascular disease risk, summed 46 food groups rated by investigators as positive or negative on the basis of hypothesized health effects. We used repeated-measures regression to estimate time-specific mean diet scores and servings per day of food groups. In 2652 participants with all 3 diet assessments, the mean (±SD) dietary quality score increased from 64.1 ± 13.0 at year 0 to 71.1 ± 12.6 at year 20, which was mostly attributable to increased age. However, the secular trend, which was estimated from differences of dietary quality scores across time at a fixed age (age-matched time trend) decreased. The diet score was higher in whites than in blacks and in women than in men and increased with education, but demographic gaps in the score narrowed over 20 y. There tended to be increases in positively rated food groups and decreases in negatively rated food groups, which were generally similar in direction across demographic groups. The CARDIA study showed many age-related, desirable changes in food intake over 20 y of observation, despite a secular trend toward a lower diet quality. Nevertheless, demographic disparities in diet persist.

  4. Afnemend geloof in God en toenemend geloof in een hogere werkelijkheid? : Verklaringen van trends tussen 1979 en 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaf, Nan Dirk de; Grotenhuis, Manfred te

    2005-01-01

    Declining belief in God and increasing belief in the supernatural? Trends between 1979 and 2000 explained Religion is gradually losing its influence in Dutch society, which is one aspect of ‘secularization’. In this study we focus on individual secularization, namely the increasing number of

  5. Application of time transfer function to McVittie spacetime: gravitational time delay and secular increase in astronomical unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arakida, Hideyoshi

    2011-08-01

    We attempt to calculate the gravitational time delay in a time-dependent gravitational field, especially in McVittie spacetime, which can be considered as the spacetime around a gravitating body such as the Sun, embedded in the FLRW (Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker) cosmological background metric. To this end, we adopt the time transfer function method proposed by Le Poncin-Lafitte et al. (Class Quantum Gravity 21:4463, 2004) and Teyssandier and Le Poncin-Lafitte (Class Quantum Gravity 25:145020, 2008), which is originally related to Synge's world function Ω( x A , x B ) and enables to circumvent the integration of the null geodesic equation. We re-examine the global cosmological effect on light propagation in the solar system. The round-trip time of a light ray/signal is given by the functions of not only the spacial coordinates but also the emission time or reception time of light ray/signal, which characterize the time-dependency of solutions. We also apply the obtained results to the secular increase in the astronomical unit, reported by Krasinsky and Brumberg (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 90:267, 2004), and we show that the leading order terms of the time-dependent component due to cosmological expansion is 9 orders of magnitude smaller than the observed value of dAU/ dt, i.e., 15 ± 4 (m/century). Therefore, it is not possible to explain the secular increase in the astronomical unit in terms of cosmological expansion.

  6. Analysis of geomagnetic secular variations 10 000 to 30 000 years bp, Lac du Bouchet, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, G.; Creer, K. M.

    1986-09-01

    Cores of the bottom sediments from Lac du Bouchet, in the Haute Loire, France (44.9° N, 3.8° E) have been taken using Mackereth type pneumatic piston corers. The sediments have been dated by palynological control back to 15 000 years bp (years before present), and by radiocarbon age determinations using both conventional and accelerator methods. The depth/time transform provisionally used here dates the sequence from 10 000 to 30 000 years bp. The stacked records of demagnetised remanent magnetisation from eight cores have been examined. Fourier and maximum entropy method spectral analyses show good agreement. Inclination and declination spectra are different in that the dominant inclination periods tend to fall in the negative part of the complex spectrum, while the dominant declination periods tend to fall in the positive part. The VGP path traced out by the remanent magnetisation vector shows predominantly clockwise looping, consistent with essentially westward drifting geomagnetic sources. The detailed form of the VGP path is affected by the degree of smoothing, but clockwise looping always predominates averaging ˜ 67% over the whole time interval investigated. A band of frequencies between ˜ 0.9 and ˜ 0.3 cycles per thousand years is associated with the strongest bias towards clockwise rotation (˜ 80% to 90%) while a band between ˜ 0.3 and 0.1 cycles per thousand years is associated with only ˜ 50% clockwise rotation. Individual core records show some negative inclinations at horizons where inclination minima occur suggesting that 'excursions' should be regarded as extreme values of secular variation rather than aborted polarity reversals of the main field.

  7. Black Hole Growth in Disk Galaxies Mediated by the Secular Evolution of Short Bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Min; Debattista, Victor P.; Shen, Juntai; Ho, Luis C.; Erwin, Peter

    2017-08-01

    The growth of black holes (BHs) in disk galaxies lacking classical bulges, which implies an absence of significant mergers, appears to be driven by secular processes. Short bars of sub-kiloparsec radius have been hypothesized to be an important mechanism for driving gas inflows to small scale, feeding central BHs. In order to quantify the maximum BH mass allowed by this mechanism, we examine the robustness of short bars to the dynamical influence of BHs. Large-scale bars are expected to be robust, long-lived structures; extremely massive BHs, which are rare, are needed to completely destroy such bars. However, we find that short bars, which are generally embedded in large-scale outer bars, can be destroyed quickly when BHs of mass {M}{bh}˜ 0.05 % {--}0.2 % of the total stellar mass ({M}\\star ) are present. In agreement with this prediction, all galaxies observed to host short bars have BHs with a mass fraction less than 0.2 % {M}\\star . Thus, the dissolution of short inner bars is possible, perhaps even frequent, in the universe. An important implication of this result is that inner-bar-driven gas inflows may be terminated when BHs grow to ˜ 0.1 % {M}\\star . We predict that 0.2 % {M}\\star is the maximum mass of BHs allowed if they are fed predominately via inner bars. This value matches well the maximum ratio of BH-to-host-galaxy stellar mass observed in galaxies with pseudo-bulges and most nearby active galactic nucleus host galaxies. This hypothesis provides a novel explanation for the lower {M}{bh}/{M}\\star in galaxies that have avoided significant mergers compared with galaxies with classical bulges.

  8. Some aspects of secular changes in Hungary over the twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzsár, E B; Zsákai, A

    2002-12-01

    Growth and maturation are considered the most reliable indicators of health status. Their progression rates in turn are strongly influenced by nutrition and socio-economic status, a well-documented relationship. The pattern of the so-called positive secular changes, i.e. the increase in size and earlier maturation, fits the populations' historical model of economic development very well. The historical, political and economic changes occurring in this century in Hungary have had a remarkably strong impact. Until World War I Hungary was an agrarian part of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, its ethnic composition was most variegated. Both World Wars caused fundamental changes, namely in respect of post-war Hungary they were associated with marked territorial losses and considerable population mobility. In interpreting the developmental differences in the data collected before and after these wars one should take account of the important facts that, in addition to the changes in socio-economic conditions, affected the gene pool of the populations in Hungary. Over the past 100 years profound changes have occurred in the mean body size, growth rate and timing of maturation of the country's population. This paper is a brief analytic summary of the tendencies observed in adult stature, maturation and some socio-economic conditions. It also compares the cohorts of sub-populations as reflected by the reviewed reports. In summarizing the change in adult stature estimated by the data on recruits, soldiers and students of higher education, it could be stated that adult mean stature had become markedly taller in Hungary since the end of the fifties. However, any estimation of the absolute increment and the exact rate is severely biased by the variable character of the samples' representativeness. Similar problems arose in dealing with sexual maturation, because the retrospective and status-quo methods of assessment were found incomparable. Nevertheless, menarche was observed to

  9. Explanation of observable secular variations of gravity and alternative methods of determination of drift of the center of mass of the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yury

    2010-05-01

    The summary. On the basis of geodynamic model of the forced relative displacement of the centers of mass of the core and the mantle of the Earth the secular variations of a gravity and heights of some gravimetry stations on a surface of the Earth have ben studied. At the account of secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth which on our geodynamic model is caused by the unidirectional drift of the core of the Earth relatively to the mantle, the full explanation is given to observable secular variations of a gravity at stations Ny-Alesund (Norway), Churchill (Canada), Medicine (Italy), Sayowa (Antarctica), Strastburg (France), Membach (Belgium), Wuhan (China) and Metsahovi (Finland). Two new methods of determination of secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth, alternative to classical method of a space geodesy are offered: 1) on the basis of gravimetry data about secular trends of a gravity at the stations located on all basic regions of the Earth; 2) on the basis of the comparative analysis of altimetry and coastal data about secular changes of sea level also in basic regions of ocean. 1. Secular drift of the center of mass of the core and the center of mass of the Earth. A secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth to the North relatively to special center O on an axis of rotation of the Earth for which the coefficient of third zonal harmonic J3' = 0, has been predicted in the author work [1]. A drift in a direction to a geographical point (pole P) 70°0 N and 104°3 E has been established for the first time theoretically - as a result of the analysis of the global directed redistribution of masses of the Earth, explaining the observed secular drift of the pole of an axis of rotation of the Earth and not tidal acceleration of its axial rotation [2]. In [1] velocity of drift it has been estimated in 1-2 cm/yr. For specified center O the figure of a planet is as though deprived of pure-shaped form (J3' = 0). And in this sense the point O can be

  10. Trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors in people with and without diabetes mellitus: a Middle Eastern cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangiri-Noudeh, Younes; Akbarpour, Samaneh; Lotfaliany, Mojtaba; Zafari, Neda; Khalili, Davood; Tohidi, Maryam; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

    2014-01-01

    To investigate secular trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors during a decade of follow-up in a Middle Eastern cohort, and to compare observed trends between diabetic and non-diabetic populations. In a population of 6181 participants (2622 males and 3559 females), diabetes status and CVD risk factors were evaluated in 4 study phases from 1999-2011. 1045 subjects had type 2 diabetes mellitus at baseline and 5136 participants were diabetes-free. To examine the trends of CVD risk factors, generalized estimation equation models were constructed. The interaction between the diabetes status and each phase of the study was checked in a separate model. During the follow-up period diabetic females significantly gained better control of their blood pressure, serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol and general and central obesity measures compared to non-diabetic counterparts, although 60% of them had high BP and 64% had high serum LDL-C levels till the end of the study. Diabetic males however, experienced significantly better control on their serum LDL-C and general and central obesity measures compared to their non-diabetic controls; but 24% of them were still smoker, 63% had high BP and 60% had high serum LDL-C levels at the end of the follow-up (all Ps interaction risk factors have been controlled to some extent among diabetic population in Iran, still high numbers of people with diabetes have uncontrolled CVD risk factors that prompt more attention.

  11. Sacred Spaces: Religious and Secular Coping and Family Relationships in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brelsford, Gina M; Ramirez, Joshua; Veneman, Kristin; Doheny, Kim K

    2016-08-01

    Preterm birth is an unanticipated and stressful event for parents. In addition, the unfamiliar setting of the intensive care nursery necessitates strategies for coping. The primary study objective of this descriptive study was to determine whether secular and religious coping strategies were related to family functioning in the neonatal intensive care unit. Fifty-two parents of preterm (25-35 weeks' gestation) infants completed the Brief COPE (secular coping), the Brief RCOPE (religious coping), and the Family Environment Scale within 1 week of their infant's hospital admission. This descriptive study found that parents' religious and secular coping was significant in relation to family relationship functioning. Specifically, negative religious coping (ie, feeling abandoned or angry at God) was related to poorer family cohesion and use of denial. These findings have relevance for interventions focused toward enhancing effective coping for families. Further study of religious and secular coping strategies for neonatal intensive care unit families is warranted in a larger more diverse sample of family members.

  12. Contemporary environmentalism as a current of spiritual post-secular practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Wickström

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary spirituality often bears the stamp of an eco-discourse. It is characteristic of post-spiritual practices that there is a blurring of the boundaries between the sacred and profane and in this sphere, influenced by the eco-consciousness, nature and the body can be sacralised. In this article the author looks into environmentalism as a current in spirituality. First spirituality as a concept is discussed. Second follows a section on aspects of contemporary environmentalism, dealing with new social movements, new identity and the main directions of environmentalism. After that, the distinction between environmentally motivated spirituality and spir­itually motivated environmentalism is presented. At the end there is a short discussion of post-secular issues concerning environmentalism. Worldviews are no longer necessarily either religious or secular, but may also combine elements of rational secularity with enchanted spirituality. The blurring of the boundaries between secular and religious views and motives occur, as well as the separation of mind and body, rationality and belief, and human and nature.

  13. Living and Dying in the Jewish Way: Secular Rights and Religious Duties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapp, Marshall B.

    1993-01-01

    Compares American secular emphasis on individual rights and autonomous decision-making in "right to die" context with traditional emphasis on obligation in Orthodox Judaism. Explicates approach of Conservative and Reform Judaism to decision-making about life-sustaining medical treatments and considers proper balance and relative influence of…

  14. The New Normal : Demand, Secular Stagnation and the Vanishing Middle-Class

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storm, S.T.H.

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. economy is widely diagnosed with two ‘diseases’: a secular stagnation of potential U.S. growth, and rising income and job polarization. The two diseases have a common root in the demand shortfall, originating from the ‘unbalanced’ growth between technologically ‘dynamic’ and ‘stagnant’

  15. The New Normal: Demand, Secular Stagnation, and the Vanishing Middle Class

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storm, S.T.H.

    The U.S. economy is widely diagnosed with two “diseases”: a secular stagnation of potential U.S. growth and rising income and job polarization. The two diseases have a common root in the demand shortfall, originating from the “unbalanced” growth between technologically “dynamic” and “stagnant”

  16. The secular rise in IQs in the Netherlands: Is the Flynn Effect on g?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Nijenhuis, J.; van der Flier, H.

    2007-01-01

    IQ scores have been increasing over the last half century, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. In this study, we focused on the question to what extent these secular gains are on the g factor. Two IQ batteries: the Interest-School achievement-Intelligence Test (ISI) and the Groningen Final

  17. The New Normal : Demand, Secular Stagnation and the Vanishing Middle-Class

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storm, S.T.H.

    The U.S. economy is widely diagnosed with two ‘diseases’: a secular stagnation of potential U.S. growth, and rising income and job polarization. The two diseases have a common root in the demand shortfall, originating from the ‘unbalanced’ growth between technologically ‘dynamic’ and ‘stagnant’

  18. The Relations between Islam and Secularism: The Impact on Social Behavior in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Nik Ahmad Hisham; Tekke, Mustafa

    2016-01-01

    Secularism as central to society and human life may bring undesired negative consequences in Muslim societies. Increasing social problems among juveniles in Turkey raised questions regarding the right personality development and education of young people. In extending further analysis, we conducted semi-structured interview with experts to assess…

  19. Thinking beyond Secularism: The Catholic Church and Political Practice in Rural South India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparna Sundar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This article re-opens the debate on secularism in India by looking at a religion and a region that has historically been marginal to this discourse, focusing on the way in which the Catholic Church has historically mediated the relationship between individuals and the state, among the fishing communities of South India. The Catholic Church’s dominant position among the fishing communities, its minority status within India, as well as theological and other shifts that have taken place within the global Church, lead it to articulate a secular, even radical politics as its primary mode of religious engagement. Radical clergy, many from fishing backgrounds, act as both organic and traditional intellectuals in the Gramscian sense, linking the traditional religious concerns of the Church to the secular interests of their parishioners. Likewise, villagers participate in Church-generated associations spaces to secure wider political goals. The paper concludes that certain forms of religious organisation in the public sphere might indeed be compatible with democracy, citizenship, and even secularism.

  20. Transforming Faith: Teaching as a Christian Vocation in a Secular, Worldview-Diverse Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooling, Trevor

    2010-01-01

    This article advocates the thesis that Christian teachers can and should draw on the resources of their faith in their work of leading teaching and learning. The secular approach where faith is treated as a private matter and the "market share" approach where the dominance of Christian faith is sought, are both rejected. A third way which aspires…

  1. Investigation of a secular variation impulse using satellite data: The 2003 geomagnetic jerk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.

    2007-01-01

    at the "virtual observatories" as well as those of the spherical harmonic expansion coefficients, we detect a secular variation impulse (an abrupt jump in the second time derivative of the magnetic field) in the CHAMP satellite data during the first months of the year 2003. The jerk occurred simultaneously...

  2. Religion and parental values in a secularized country : Evidence from the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sieben, I.J.P.; Halman, L.C.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The authors explore the impact of religion on two key parental values – obedience and autonomy – in contemporary Dutch society, one of the most secularized countries in the world. Three main religious dimensions are investigated: belonging (religious denomination), behaving (church attendance) and

  3. Crustal concealing of small-scale core-field secular variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulot, G.; Olsen, Nils; Thebault, E.

    2009-01-01

    of internal origin happen to be detectable now in spherical harmonic degrees up to, perhaps, 16. All of these changes are usually attributed to changes in the core field itself, the secular variation, on the ground that the lithospheric magnetization cannot produce such signals. It has, however, been pointed...

  4. Religion and modernity in a secular city: A public theology of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-07-20

    Jul 20, 2011 ... The modern secular city tried to marginalise religion from the public sphere by clearly defining religion as a private matter. .... public opinion still believes power to be in the hands of the democratically elected ... in Haiti, where the president Jean-Bertrand Aristide was forced into exile. The international ...

  5. The Development of Afterlife Beliefs in Religiously and Secularly Schooled Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bering, Jesse M.; Blasi, Carlos Hernandez; Bjorklund, David F.

    2005-01-01

    Children aged from 4;10 to 12;9 attending either a Catholic school or a public, secular school in an eastern Spanish city observed a puppet show in which a mouse was eaten by an alligator. Children were then asked questions about the dead mouse's biological and psychological functioning. The pattern of results generally replicated that obtained…

  6. Secularities, Diversities and Pluralities: Understanding the Challenges of Religious Diversity in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Zavala-Pelayo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Latin America is experiencing today the greatest religious diversity in its entire history. However, it must also be noted that a large number of the growing religious minorities may be classified into types of Christianity with conservative overtones. In this paper we will suggest that the literature streams on multiple secularities in contemporary (Western societies and religious diversity in Latin America do offer insightful perspectives yet fail to adequately convey the challenges raised by the religious across contemporary Latin America. Addressing Latin America’s historical background, we will distinguish conceptually and empirically among different degrees of secularities, diversities and pluralities and will construct with these distinctions a descriptive-normative model that can guide future analyses of secular and religious phenomena in Latin America. It is only through a comprehensive understanding of diversities, pluralities and secularities that the debates on those human rights crucial for social inclusion—from sexual and reproductive rights to gender and religious equality—can be fruitfully conducted in and beyond Latin America.

  7. Democracy, Religion and Secularism: Reflections on the Public Role of Religion in a Modern Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Brenda

    2011-01-01

    The present article focuses on the relationship between democracy and secularism and, in particular, the presumption that a secularist approach is the most practical solution to the problem of pluralism of beliefs. It raises the question of how far those countries in the West which claim to be democratic are justified in the way that they treat…

  8. A secular carbon debt from atmospheric high temperature combustion of stem wood?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czeskleba-Dupont, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    Basically, combustion of woody biomass in high temperature processes that react with atmospheric air results in a long lasting addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. When harvesting large extra amounts of stem tree for energetic use, a global as well as secular time frame is needed to assess...

  9. Secular Dynamics and Family Identification Among Highly Inclined Asteroids in the Euphrosyne Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machuca, J. F. M.; Carruba, V. C.

    2012-05-01

    In this work we identified 18 families and 39 clumps in the Euphrosyne region, and for the first time we detected stable populations of asteroids in aligned and anti-aligned librating states of the ν5 and ν6 linear secular resonances.

  10. Religious and Secular Coping and Family Relationships in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brelsford, Gina M.; Ramirez, Joshua; Veneman, Kristin; Doheny, Kim K.

    2017-01-01

    Background Preterm birth is an unanticipated and stressful event for parents. In addition, the unfamiliar setting of the intensive care nursery necessitates strategies for coping. Purpose The primary study objective of this descriptive study was to determine whether secular and religious coping strategies were related to family functioning in the neonatal intensive care unit. Methods Fifty-two parents of preterm (25–35 weeks’ gestation) infants completed the Brief COPE (secular coping), the Brief RCOPE (religious coping), and the Family Environment Scale within 1 week of their infant’s hospital admission. Findings This descriptive study found that parents’ religious and secular coping was significant in relation to family relationship functioning. Specifically, negative religious coping (ie, feeling abandoned or angry at God) was related to poorer family cohesion and use of denial. Implications for Practice These findings have relevance for interventions focused toward enhancing effective coping for families. Implications for Research Further study of religious and secular coping strategies for neonatal intensive care unit families is warranted in a larger more diverse sample of family members. PMID:27391569

  11. Religious and secular volunteering: A comparison between immigrants and non-immigrants in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carabain, C.L.; Bekkers, R.H.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Using new survey data from the Netherlands, we find that non-immigrants are more likely to volunteer for secular organisations than guest worker immigrants and postcolonial citizen immigrants. In contrast, non-immigrants are less likely to engage in religious volunteering than both immigrant groups.

  12. Secular resonances with massive asteroids and their impact on the dynamics of small bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsirvoulis, Georgios; Novaković, Bojan; Djošović, Valdimir

    2015-08-01

    The quest for understanding the dynamical structure of the main belt has been a long-lasting endeavor. From the discovery of the Kirkwood gaps and the Hirayama families, to the more recent advances in secular perturbation theory, the refinement of the proper elements and the discovery of the three-body mean-motion resonances, only to name a few, the progress has been immense. Dynamical models coupled with the outbursts in computational power and observations have greatly improved our knowledge of the dynamical evolution of the small bodies in the Solar System.While our set of tools for studying the dynamical porperties of the main belt is believed to be sufficiently complete, our assumptions on how to use them seem to have hindered this effort.The concensus has been that, judging by their mass, only the planets, especially the giant ones, can act as efficient perturbers of the orbits of asteroids. Thus a lot of studies have been made on the locations and effects of secular resonances with the giant planets in different parts of the main belt, explaining among other things the presence of gaps in the distribution of asteroids, strange shapes of some asteroid families and transport mechanisms of asteroids to the near-Earth region.Our work is motivated by the first discovery that a secular resonance with the most massive asteroid, Ceres, is the dominant dynamical mechanism responsible for the post-impact evolution of the Hoffmeister family members. Thus the concensus is wrong. Knowing now, that secular resonances with massive asteroids can be effective on asteroid dynamics, we set out to construct a dynamical map of these resonances across the main belt.Our study is focused on the linear and degree four non-linear secular resonances with the two most massive asteroids (1) Ceres and (4) Vesta. First we determine the locations of these secular resonances in the proper elements space, acquiring an understanding of the potentially affected regions, and then we perform

  13. National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M; Lin, John K

    2011-01-01

    Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide tre...

  14. National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farzadfar, Farshad; Finucane, Mariel M; Danaei, Goodarz

    2011-01-01

    Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consisten...

  15. Between Secularism and State Support of Religious Communities: An (InEquality Dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekim Kadriu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the concepts of ‘freedom of religion’ and ‘secularism’ in the context of the situation in Macedonia. It argues that State policies to support dominant religion(s are not in coherence with the Constitution, the principle of equality and secularism, as well as the applicable international human rights standards. Having in mind that R. Macedonia is a secular State and that there is solid non-discrimination legislation in place, it is of interest to investigate whether such policy approaches are discriminatory. Such developments may threaten the principle of secularism, human rights and stability in a fragile multi-ethnic and multi-religious country such as R. of Macedonia. In terms of methodology, this paper primarily focuses on the use of the normative and the empirical method. These methods are especially of use in the part where the existing legal framework in the domestic and international law is analyzed in regard to the various practices challenging the principles of secularism and equality before the law. In addition, this paper also focuses on the various reports in order to discuss and address relevant perceptions to such practices. This article consists of four parts. Introductory remarks are provided in section I. Section II explores the notions of secularism and equality before the law. Section III explores the various institutional practices such as: religious instruction in public schools; building of religious objects with State funding and support; non-registration of religious communities; and practicing religious ceremonies in public institutions. Finally, section IV offers concluding remarks and comments.

  16. Secular changes in the tidal constituents in San Francisco Bay originated by the California Gold Rush and major dam-building projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, I.; Ortiz, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hourly sea-level records for the time period of 1901 to 2012 at Fort Point tidal station in San Francisco Bay are analyzed in an attempt to find the origin of the secular changes found in the tidal constituents. Complex demodulation implemented with a low pass filter window of 8760 hours was employed to extract the amplitude and phase of the principal tidal constituent M2 as a function of time. The 18.6 year nodal signal was removed by using the tide potential of the equilibrium tide. The results show significant trends up to 4 cm in amplitude as well as phase shifts of 17 minutes per century. Moreover, yearly amplitude variations of M2 show to be inversely correlated to river flow discharge. On the other hand, the results of a simplified two-layer numerical hydrodynamic model indicate that long-term tide variations are directly related to the morphological evolution of a sandbank located outside the bay surrounding its entrance, acting as a hydraulic control for the whole bay. According to historical results, the sandbank reached its shallowest depth during the California Gold Rush (1848-1884), when mining debris together with large amounts of sediment were deposited into the estuary. After the Central Valley Water Project was approved (1933), many dams were built decreasing significantly the sediment supply. With the passage of time, the gradual loss of sedimentation also diminished the sandbank, increasing its depth. This fact explains the observed secular long-term advance of the tidal phase, as well as the increasing trend of the M2 amplitude.

  17. Secular light curves of comets, II: 133P/Elst Pizarro, an asteroidal belt comet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrín, Ignacio

    2006-12-01

    We present the secular light curve (SLC) of 133P/Elst-Pizarro, and show ample and sufficient evidence to conclude that it is evolving into a dormant phase. The SLC provides a great deal of information to characterize the object, the most important being that it exhibits outburst-like activity without a corresponding detectable coma. 133P will return to perihelion in July of 2007 when some of our findings may be corroborated. The most significant findings of this investigation are: (1) We have compiled from 127 literature references, extensive databases of visual colors (37 comets), rotational periods and peak-to-valley amplitudes (64 comets). 2-Dimensional plots are created from these databases, which show that comets do not lie on a linear trend but in well defined areas of these phase spaces. When 133P is plotted in the above diagrams, its location is entirely compatible with those of comets. (2) A positive correlation is found between cometary rotational periods and diameters. One possible interpretation suggest the existence of rotational evolution predicted by several theoretical models. (3) A plot of the historical evolution of cometary nuclei density estimates shows no trend with time, suggesting that perhaps a consensus is being reached. We also find a mean bulk density for comets of =0.52±0.06 g/cm. This value includes the recently determined spacecraft density of Comet 9P/Tempel 1, derived by the Deep Impact team. (4) We have derived values for over 18 physical parameters, listed in the SLC plots, Figs. 6-9. (5) The secular light curve of 133P/Elst-Pizarro exhibits a single outburst starting at +42±4 d (after perihelion), peaking at LAG=+155±10 d, duration 191±11 d, and amplitude 2.3±0.2 mag. These properties are compatible with those of other low activity comets. (6) To explain the large time delay in maximum brightness, LAG, two hypothesis are advanced: (a) the existence of a deep ice layer that the thermal wave has to reach before sublimation is

  18. Picking, choosing and re-evaluating: Developing a deglacial palaeomagnetic secular variation (PSV) master curve for Fennoscandia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lougheed, B. C.; Nilsson, A.; Bjorck, S.; Snowball, I.; Muscheler, R.

    2014-12-01

    Decades of extensive palaeomagnetic research have resulted in an abundance of late-Pleistocene and Holocene palaeomagnetic secular variation (PSV) datasets. The accuracy of these datasets is dependent not only upon the quality of the PSV data, but also on the geochronological methods used for age determination of the PSV data. We showcase our recently published work (Lougheed et al., 2014), whereby we demonstrate the potential of using existing datasets that have been published in the past 35 years, whereby we evaluate the datasets and update the geochronologies to reflect improved knowledge of dating techniques. Specifically, we have developed a Fennoscandia region PSV master curve for the 14-11 ka period, to extend the existing "Fennostack" Holocene PSV master curve (Snowball et al., 2007). The 14-11 ka period in Fennoscandia was dominated by the retreat of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and it was necessary for us to use fragmented datasets from a handful of locations that were ice-free early during the deglacial period. We updated the geochronologies of the datasets to reflect the latest understanding regarding 14C dating and pollen chronozones. We selected the updated datasets with the most robust geochronology and high-quality PSV data to construct our deglacial PSV master curve. The datasets in the resulting deglacial master curve display similar PSV trends, suggesting a regional PSV signal in Fennoscandia. It can be concluded that, when reconstructing temporal PSV trends for large regions, consideration of the quality of both the geochronological control and the PSV data is very important. This conclusion is especially relevant for modellers who gather published PSV datasets for inclusion in their data-driven geomagnetic field models. Finally, we briefly speculate that a cyclicity seen in inclination data for Fennoscandia for the past 14 ka may be related to cyclicities previously seen in some data-driven Holocene geomagnetic field models, possibly

  19. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Huang, Norden E. [National Central University, Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis Center, Chungli (China); Wallace, John M.; Smoliak, Brian V. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States); Chen, Xianyao [State Oceanic Administration, The First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao (China)

    2011-08-15

    The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal ({proportional_to}65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 C per decade since {proportional_to}1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability. (orig.)

  20. Trends in Therapeutic Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ralph W.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the implications of the rapid, dramatic changes taking place in therapeutic recreation for individuals with physical disabilities. The article notes the impact of changes in managed care, examines programming trends in therapeutic recreation (adventure/outdoor education, competitive sports, handcycling, health enhancement activities, and…

  1. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  2. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  3. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  4. Towards an exact theory of linear absorbance and circular dichroism of pigment-protein complexes: importance of non-secular contributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, Thanh-Chung; Renger, Thomas

    2015-01-21

    A challenge for the theory of optical spectra of pigment-protein complexes is the equal strength of the pigment-pigment and the pigment-protein couplings. Treating both on an equal footing so far can only be managed by numerically costly approaches. Here, we exploit recent results on a normal mode analysis derived spectral density that revealed the dominance of the diagonal matrix elements of the exciton-vibrational coupling in the exciton state representation. We use a cumulant expansion technique that treats the diagonal parts exactly, includes an infinite summation of the off-diagonal parts in secular and Markov approximations, and provides a systematic perturbative way to include non-secular and non-Markov corrections. The theory is applied to a model dimer and to chlorophyll (Chl) a and Chl b homodimers of the reconstituted water-soluble chlorophyll-binding protein (WSCP) from cauliflower. The model calculations reveal that the non-secular/non-Markov effects redistribute oscillator strength from the strong to the weak exciton transition in absorbance and they diminish the rotational strength of the exciton transitions in circular dichroism. The magnitude of these corrections is in a few percent range of the overall signal, providing a quantitative explanation of the success of time-local convolution-less density matrix theory applied earlier. A close examination of the optical spectra of Chl a and Chl b homodimers in WSCP suggests that the opening angle between Qy transition dipole moments in Chl b homodimers is larger by about 9(∘) than for Chl a homodimers for which a crystal structure of a related WSCP complex exists. It remains to be investigated whether this change is due to a different mutual geometry of the pigments or due to the different electronic structures of Chl a and Chl b.

  5. The Role of Secularism of State on the Relationship Between Catholic Identity, Political Orientation, and Gay Rights Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hichy, Zira; Gerges, Mina Halim Helmy; Platania, Silvia; Santisi, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    In discussions of regulations governing same-sex marriage and adoption by gays and lesbians, the issue of state secularism is often called into question. This study aims to test the mediating effects of state secularism on the relationship between Catholic identity, political orientation, and gay civil rights. Participants were Catholic Italians who completed a questionnaire measuring the constructs under investigation. Results showed that state secularism mediates the effects of Catholic identity and political orientation on attitudes toward same-sex marriage and adoption by gays and lesbians.

  6. Data collected in conjunction with NOAA's National Status and Trends Program to examine measures of bioeffects associated with toxicants in Puget Sound sediments, May - June 1999 (NODC Accession 0000592)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sediment samples were collected from multiple locations in the Puget Sound in support of NOAA's National Status and Trends Programs to measure the bioeffects...

  7. Secular and tidal strain across the Main Ethiopian Rift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilham, Roger; Bendick, R.; Larson, K.; Mohr, P.; Braun, J.; Tesfaye, S.; Asfaw, L.

    Using a combination of laser ranging and GPS data acquired between 1969 and 1997 we derive a separation velocity for the Somali and Nubian plates in Ethiopia (4.5±1 mm/yr at N108±10E). This vector is orthogonal to the NNE-trending neotectonic axis (Wonji fault belt) of the Ethiopian rift axis. Current rifting is concentrated within a 33-km-wide zone that includes a 7-km-wide belt of late Quaternary faulting where maximum surface strain rates are comparable to those at active plate boundaries (0.1 μstrain/yr). The strain-field suggests that thin (<5 km) elastic crust separates thick continental lithosphere, a geometry quite different from oceanic rifting, and a mechanical configuration that favors the amplification of regional strain. Semidiurnal strain tides, however, as measured by kinematic GPS methods are not amplified along or across the rift, indicating that the rift zone's low rigidity applies only at periods of years.

  8. Hungary: Secular fertility decline with distinct period fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kamarás

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we demonstrate from different angles that Hungarian fertility basically decreased between 1965 and 2005, but also clearly fluctuated, and showed different patterns in the different periods within this epoch. As a result, the clear communist-era family pattern of "early marriage and childbearing with two children" was replaced, but new family model(s have not yet fully emerged. We could show that profound changes in partnership behaviour -divorce and cohabitation- started before the change of the political regime, but also that changes in partnership relations accelerated after 1990, and that partnerships have become more fragile. In addition, Western-style values of "empty individualism" and consumerism were clearly present under socialism, but their motivating force was tamed by the communist system, in which population policy played a significant role. Of these institutional changes, we ascribe the greatest importance to the expansion in the educational system and the changes in the labour market. We show that, following the changes in the economic system, the conflict between family and work intensified. The synchronic consideration of values, labour market relations, economic development, and population policy; and the relationship of these factors to fertility and nuptiality trends, enabled us to formulate a developmental scheme of four phases concerning the evolution of fertility since 1965.

  9. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  10. Trends in advanced wastewater treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henze, M.

    1997-01-01

    The paper examines the present trends within wastewater handling and treatment. The trend is towards the extremes, either local low-tech treatment or centralized advanced treatment plants. The composition of the wastewater will change and it will be regarded as a resource. There will be more...

  11. Magnetic Field - Secular Variation of the Total Field Component for the Epoch 2010.0 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer shows lines of equal annual change (secular variation), in the total field intensity of the Earth's magnetic field, derived from the International...

  12. Secular Changes in Height, Weight, Body Mass Index and Daily Nutrition Preferences in Children During Soccer Recruitment Camps

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jessenia Hernández-Elizondo; José Moncada-Jiménez

    2012-01-01

      This study was conducted to compare secular changes in height, weight, and body mass index and to survey children's daily nutrition, hydration preferences and preferred beverages while exercising...

  13. A study of the lunisolar secular resonance $2dot{omega}+dot{Omega}=0$

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra eCelletti

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of small bodies around the Earth has gained a renewed interest,since the awareness of the problems that space debris can cause in thenearby future. A relevant role in space debris is played by lunisolarsecular resonances, which might contribute to an increase of the orbitalelements, typically of the eccentricity. We concentrate our attention onthe lunisolar secular resonance described by the relation$2dot{omega}+dot{Omega}=0$, where $omega$ and $Omega$ denotethe argument of perigee and the longitude of the ascending node of the space debris.We introduce three different models with increasing complexity. We show that the growth in eccentricity, as observed in space debris located in the MEO region at the inclination about equal to $56^circ$, can be explained as a natural effect of the secular resonance $2dot{omega}+dot{Omega}=0$, while the chaotic variations of the orbital parameters are the result of interaction and overlapping of nearby resonances.

  14. Secular painting in the Ionian islands and Italian art: Aspects of a multi-faceted relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aphrodite Kouria

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of Italian art, especially Venetian, was decisive to the secularisation of art in the Ionian Islands and the shaping of the so-called Ionian School, in the context of a broader Western influence affecting all aspects of life and culture, especially on the islands of Zakynthos and Corfu. Italian influences, mainly of Renaissance, Mannerism and Baroque art, can be identified both on the iconographic and the stylistic level of artworks, with theoretical support. This article explores facets of the dialogue of secular painting in the Ionian with Italian art in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, focussing on works and artists that highlight significant aspects of this multilayered phenomenon and also through secondary channels that expand the horizon of analysis. Procession paintings, with their various connotations, and portraiture, which flourished in secular Ionian art, offer the most interesting material as regards the selection, reception and management of Italian models and points of reference.

  15. Secular change in 13 metabolic phenotypes: A Chinese longitudinal twin study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuxia; Pang, Zengchang; Zhang, Dongfeng

    Aims: The genetic and environmental influences on metabolic phenotypes have been intensively studied by twin modeling in different populations. However, twin studies on secular change in metabolic phenotypes have been rare due to high expenses, losses of follow up, and long waiting time in prospe......Aims: The genetic and environmental influences on metabolic phenotypes have been intensively studied by twin modeling in different populations. However, twin studies on secular change in metabolic phenotypes have been rare due to high expenses, losses of follow up, and long waiting time...... (BMI); waist and hip circumstance and ratio (WHR); systolic blood pressure (SBP); diastolic blood pressure (DBP)) measured longitudinally in a period of 7 years in 254 middle aged Chinese twins (126 monozygotic; 128 dizygotic twins). Methods: Univariate ACE, ADE models and their nested models were...

  16. Debating Modernity as Secular Religion: Hans Kelsen’s futile exchange with Eric Voegelin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomassen, Bjørn

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews the mysterious and recently published last book by Hans Kelsen, “Secular Religion. A Polemic Against the Misinterpretation of Modern Social Philosophy, Science and Politics as ‘New Religions’”, contextualizing it with reference to the little known dialogue between Hans Kelsen...... and Eric Voegelin. The confrontation between Kelsen and Voegelin, two of the most illustrious émigré scholars who found in America their new home, is important to revisit because it touches upon several axes of debate of crucial importance to postwar intellectual history: the religion/secularity debate......, the positivist/anti-positivist debates, and the controversy that also led to the famous Voegelin/Arendt debate: how to read the horrors of totalitarianism into a historical trajectory of modernity. Although the Kelsen/Voegelin exchange ended in failure and bitterness its substance matter goes to the heart...

  17. Can We Remove Secular Terms for Analytical Solution of Groundwater Response under Tidal Influence?

    CERN Document Server

    Munusamy, Selva Balaji

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a secular term removal methodology based on the homotopy perturbation method for analytical solutions of nonlinear problems with periodic boundary condition. The analytical solution for groundwater response to tidal fluctuation in a coastal unconfined aquifer system with the vertical beach is provided as an example. The non-linear one-dimensional Boussinesq's equation is considered as the governing equation for the groundwater flow. An analytical solution is provided for non-dimensional Boussinesq's equation with cosine harmonic boundary condition representing tidal boundary condition. The analytical solution is obtained by using homotopy perturbation method with a virtual embedding parameter. The present approach does not require pre-specified perturbation parameter and also facilitates secular terms elimination in the perturbation solution. The solutions starting from zeroth-order up to third-order are obtained. The non-dimensional expression, $A/D_{\\infty}$ emerges as an implicit parame...

  18. Secular Effect of Sun Oblateness on the Orbital Parameters of Mars and Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaishwar, Avaneesh; Kushvah, Badam Singh; Mishra, Devi Prasad

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we considered the Mars-Jupiter system to study the behaviour of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) as most of the NEAs originate in the main asteroid belt located between Mars and Jupiter. The materials obtained from NEAs are very useful for space industrialisation. The variations in orbital parameters, such as eccentricity, inclination, longitude of pericenter and longitude of ascending node of Mars and Jupiter were investigated for a time span of 200,000 years centered on J2000 (January 2000) using secular perturbation theory. We considered the Sun oblateness and studied the effect of Sun oblateness on orbital parameters of Mars and Jupiter. Moreover, we determined the orbital parameters for asteroids moving under the perturbation effect of Mars and Jupiter by using a secular solution of Mars-Jupiter system.

  19. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-08-05

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role of endocrine disrupters. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  1. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  2. Secular cooling of the earth as a source of intraplate stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    As a result of secular cooling and contraction of the earth, an increasingly extensional horizontal stress is imposed on the central portions of the plates. While the rate of increase of this stress is small in most situations, it is enhanced for large plates and during any episodes of accelerated global cooling. This source of stress may have contributed to the rifting and breakup of long-lived supercontinental plates.

  3. To Determination and Explanation of the Secular Change of Inclination of the Earth Equator to Ecliptic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yu. V.

    2006-08-01

    The observed secular variation of inclination of the Earth equator to ecliptic can be interpreted as dynamical consequence of the turn of the mantle and the core due to a dynamical evolution of this system in the gravitational field of external celestial bodies. On the base of the elementary dynamical theory of the relative translatory-rotary motion of the core and the mantle due to gravitational action of the Moon and the Sun the system of first integrals have been obtained (Vilke, 2004; Barkin, Vilke, 2004). The observable secular variation of the angle of inclination between equator and ecliptic Δɛ=-0.131±0.018 mas/yr (Vondrak, 1998) corresponds to angular velocity of "turning" of the mantle relatively to the core with angular velocity Δɛ[c]=1.056±0.145 mas/yr=5.120x10^ -9 rad/yr. According to the developed dynamic theory the core tests both translational and rotational displacements, both secular, and periodic. The secular translational displacement (polar displacement) reliably proves to be true the data of cryogenic gravimeters (Potsdam, Syowa, Medicina etc.) and by satellite data about geocenter motion and on changes of geodetic heights (Medcina, Syowa and others). The mentioned slow relative turn of the core and mantle also results in variations of gravity, the most significant at latitudes ±45° which make about 0.0364 μGal/yr. Periodic relative swellings of the core and the mantle which are described by theory, can result in more significant on amplitude variations of gravity on the Earth surface. In any case, precision gravimetric experiments can help to open and describe the true character of relative displacement of the core and the mantle.

  4. Secular changes in height, weight and body mass index in Hong Kong Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Youfa

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large population growth surveys of children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 y were undertaken in Hong Kong in 1963 and 1993. The global epidemic of obesity is a major public health concern. To monitor the impact of this epidemic in Hong Kong children and to identify secular changes in growth, a further growth survey was undertaken in 2005/6. Methods Cross-sectional height and weight measurements of 14,842 children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 y from Hong Kong's 18 districts were obtained during the 2005/6 school year. Percentile curves were constructed using LMS method and sex-specific percentile values of weight-for-age, height-for-age, and BMI-for-age were compared with those data from 1963 and 1993. Results Secular changes in height, weight and BMI were noted between 1963 and 1993 and between 1993 and 2005/6. In the latter period, greater changes were observed at younger ages, and particularly in boys. On an annual basis, the 1993–2005/6 changes were less than those during 1963–1993. Using the International Obesity Task Force cut-offs, 16.7% of children were overweight or obese in 2005/6, which was a 5.1% increase since 1993. Conclusion These data provide policy-makers with further evidence of the secular changes in child growth and the increasing obesity epidemic among Hong Kong children.

  5. Secular resonances between bodies on close orbits II: prograde and retrograde orbits for irregular satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Daohai; Christou, Apostolos A.

    2017-09-01

    In extending the analysis of the four secular resonances between close orbits in Li and Christou (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 125:133-160, 2016) (Paper I), we generalise the semianalytical model so that it applies to both prograde and retrograde orbits with a one-to-one map between the resonances in the two regimes. We propose the general form of the critical angle to be a linear combination of apsidal and nodal differences between the two orbits b_1 Δ π + b_2 Δ Ω, forming a collection of secular resonances in which the ones studied in Paper I are among the strongest. Test of the model in the orbital vicinity of massive satellites with physical and orbital parameters similar to those of the irregular satellites Himalia at Jupiter and Phoebe at Saturn shows that {>}20 and {>}40% of phase space is affected by these resonances, respectively. The survivability of the resonances is confirmed using numerical integration of the full Newtonian equations of motion. We observe that the lowest order resonances with b_1+|b_2|≤ 3 persist, while even higher-order resonances, up to b_1+|b_2|≥ 7, survive. Depending on the mass, between 10 and 60% of the integrated test particles are captured in these secular resonances, in agreement with the phase space analysis in the semianalytical model.

  6. Religiousness and religious coping in a secular society: the gender perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Hjelmborg, Jacob; Skytthe, Axel; Christensen, Kaare; Hvidt, Niels Christian

    2014-10-01

    Women are found to be more religious than men and more likely to use religious coping. Only few studies have explored religious gender differences in more secular societies. This population-based study comprised 3,000 Danish men and women (response rate 45 %) between 20 and 40 years of age. Information about demographics, religiousness and religious coping was obtained through a web-based questionnaire. We organized religiousness in the three dimensions: Cognition, Practice and Importance, and we assessed religious coping using the brief RCOPE questionnaire. We found substantial gender differences in both religiousness and religious coping. Nearly, 60 % of the women believed in some sort of spirit or in God compared to 40 % of the men. Generally, both men and women scored low on the RCOPE scale. However, for respondents reporting high levels of religiousness, the proportion of men who scored high in the RCOPE exceeded the proportion of women in using positive and especially negative coping strategies. Also, in a secular society, women are found to be more religious than men, but in a subset of the most religious respondents, men were more inclined to use religious coping. Further studies on religious coping in secular societies are required.

  7. The Problems of Teaching the Basics of Secular Ethics to Pedagogic Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Shcheglova

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper looks at the specialists training for teaching the Basics of Secular Ethics course in the secondary school. In author’s opinion, the above course is entitled to develop children’s moral consciousness. The subject is practical rather than descriptive, focused on the spiritual work, and teaching how to live in harmony with themselves and the surrounding world. The author emphasizes the difference between the secular and religious ethics related to the specificity of moral consciousness - based either on the principle of personal moral autonomy or theonomy in case of the religious ethics. The problematic task of developing the morally independent personality in the modern society is complicated by the confusion of ethics and etiquette, wide spread ideas of pluralism, relativism, infantilism and sense gratification. The challenges and inner contradictions of the given educational module are revealed in dealing with such concepts as the mercy and moral ideal. In conclusion, the author points out the significance of active positions of teachers and students alike in pursuing the Secular Ethics course. 

  8. The Problems of Teaching the Basics of Secular Ethics to Pedagogic Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Shcheglova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper looks at the specialists training for teaching the Basics of Secular Ethics course in the secondary school. In author’s opinion, the above course is entitled to develop children’s moral consciousness. The subject is practical rather than descriptive, focused on the spiritual work, and teaching how to live in harmony with themselves and the surrounding world. The author emphasizes the difference between the secular and religious ethics related to the specificity of moral consciousness - based either on the principle of personal moral autonomy or theonomy in case of the religious ethics. The problematic task of developing the morally independent personality in the modern society is complicated by the confusion of ethics and etiquette, wide spread ideas of pluralism, relativism, infantilism and sense gratification. The challenges and inner contradictions of the given educational module are revealed in dealing with such concepts as the mercy and moral ideal. In conclusion, the author points out the significance of active positions of teachers and students alike in pursuing the Secular Ethics course. 

  9. Signatures of spatially correlated noise and non-secular effects in two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, James; Ing, David J; Rosskopf, Joachim; Jeske, Jan; Cole, Jared H; Huelga, Susana F; Plenio, Martin B

    2017-01-14

    We investigate how correlated fluctuations affect oscillatory features in rephasing and non-rephasing two-dimensional (2D) electronic spectra of a model dimer system. Based on a beating map analysis, we show that non-secular environmental couplings induced by uncorrelated fluctuations lead to oscillations centered at both cross- and diagonal-peaks in rephasing spectra as well as in non-rephasing spectra. Using an analytical approach, we provide a quantitative description of the non-secular effects in terms of the Feynman diagrams and show that the environment-induced mixing of different inter-excitonic coherences leads to oscillations in the rephasing diagonal-peaks and non-rephasing cross-peaks. We demonstrate that as correlations in the noise increase, the lifetime of oscillatory 2D signals is enhanced at rephasing cross-peaks and non-rephasing diagonal-peaks, while the other non-secular oscillatory signals are suppressed. We discuss that the asymmetry of 2D lineshapes in the beating map provides information on the degree of correlations in environmental fluctuations. Finally we investigate how the oscillatory features in 2D spectra are affected by inhomogeneous broadening.

  10. High-resolution chronology of sediment below CCD based on Holocene paleomagnetic secular variations in the Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamatsu, Toshiya; Usami, Kazuko; McHugh, Cecilia M. G.; Ikehara, Ken

    2017-08-01

    Using high-resolution paleomagnetic data, we examined the potential for obtaining precise ages from sediment core samples recovered from deep-sea basins close to rupture zones of the 2011 and earlier earthquakes off Tohoku, Japan. Obtaining detailed stratigraphic ages from deep-sea sediments below the calcium compensation depth (CCD) is difficult, but we found that the samples contain excellent paleomagnetic secular variation records to constrain age models. Variations in paleomagnetic directions obtained from the sediments reveal systematic changes in the cores. A stacked paleomagnetic profile closely matches the Lake Biwa data sets in southwest Japan for the past 7000 years, one can establish age models based on secular variations of the geomagnetic field on sediments recovered uniquely below the CCD. Comparison of paleomagnetic directions near a tephra and a paleomagnetic direction of contemporaneous pyroclastic flow deposits acquired by different magnetization processes shows precise depositional ages reflecting the magnetization delay of the marine sediment record.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryGenerally obtaining detailed ages from deep-sea sediments is difficult, because available dating method is very limited. We found that the deep-see sediment off North Japan recorded past sequential geomagnetic directions. If those records correlate well with the reference record in past 7000 years, then we could estimate age of sediment by pattern matching. Additionally a volcanic ash emitted in 915 A.D., which was intercalated in our samples, indicates a time lag in our age model. This observation makes our age model more precise.

  11. El colegio de Tepotzotlán y la disciplina del clero secular en el Arzobispado de México, 1777-1821

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidalgo Pego, Mónica

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In 1777, the archbishop of Mexico Alonso Núñez de Haro founded in the town of Tepotzotlán, the college seminary for training, voluntary recall and correction of the secular clergy. This institution, unique in its kind, was established to train priests perfect and to correct those ecclesiastics who for their crimes or lack of education, needed it. The mechanisms used for this purpose are examined in this work.En 1777, el arzobispo de México Alonso Núñez de Haro fundó en el pueblo de Tepotzotlán, el colegio seminario para instrucción, retiro voluntario y corrección de clérigos seculares. Esta institución, única en su tipo, se estableció para formar curas perfectos y para corregir a los eclesiásticos que por sus delitos o por falta de instrucción, lo necesitasen. Los mecanismos utilizados para ello serán estudiados en el presente trabajo.

  12. Social and demographic drivers of trend and seasonality in elective abortions in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckner, Tim A; Mortensen, Laust H; Catalano, Ralph A

    2017-07-04

    Elective abortions show a secular decline in high income countries. That general pattern, however, may mask meaningful differences-and a potentially rising trend-among age, income, and other racial/ethnic groups. We explore these differences in Denmark, a high-income, low-fertility country with excellent data on terminations and births. We examined monthly elective abortions (n = 225,287) from 1995 to 2009, by maternal age, parity, income level and mother's country of origin. We applied time-series methods to live births as well as spontaneous and elective abortions to approximate the denominator of pregnancies at risk of elective abortion. We used linear regression methods to identify trend and seasonal patterns. Despite an overall declining trend, teenage women show a rising proportion of pregnancies that end in an elective termination (56% to 67%, 1995 to 2009). Non-Western immigrant women also show a slight increase in incidence. Heightened economic disadvantage among non-Western immigrant women does not account for this rise. Elective abortions also show a sustained "summer peak" in June, July and August. Low-income women show the most pronounced summer peak. Identification of the causes of the increase over time in elective abortion among young women, and separately among non-Western immigrant women, represents key areas of further inquiry. The unexpected increase over time in elective abortions among teens and non-Western immigrants in Denmark may signal important social and cultural impediments to contraception. The summer peak in abortions among low-income women, moreover, conflicts with the conventional assumption that the social and demographic composition of mothers who electively end their pregnancy remains stable within a calendar year.

  13. Secular trend and social variation in age at menarche among polish schoolgirls before and after the political transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomula, Aleksandra; Koziel, Slawomir

    2017-08-08

    To describe the biological results of the political and economic transformations that took place in Poland between 1966 and 2012, based on an analysis of age at menarche, and to determine changes across social groups. Data were collected in 1966, 1978, 1988, and 2012 in several districts of Poland. The study included 34,940 schoolgirls. Age at menarche was assessed with the use of status quo method. Definition of socioeconomic status was based on 4 factors: urbanization level, mother and father education, and family size. When the political and economic situation in Poland improved, a decrease in age at menarche was observed, whereas in years of crisis it increased. The same social differentiation in menarcheal age observed before the political transformation continued to be present in 2012. Socioeconomic changes were significantly associated with age at menarche. Social inequalities, reflected in menarcheal age, continue to be present in Poland. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. [Children's and adolescent's use of medicine for aches and psychological problems: secular trends from 1988 to 2006.

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holstein, Bjørn; Andersen, Anette; Due, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Medicine use for aches and psychological problems is common among adolescents. Medicines are toxic and may have harmful side effects. It is therefore important to study change over time and patterns of medicine use. The objective of this paper is to describe self-reported medicine use......: There was a significant increase in 11-, 13-, and 15-year-old student's use of medicine for aches and psychological problems from 1988 to 2006. In the same period, there was a decrease in the prevalence of students who reported pains monthly. Udgivelsesdato: 2009-Jan-5...

  15. Ocean stagnation and ventilation defined by δ34S secular trends in pyrite and barite, Selwyn Basin, Yukon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodfellow, Wayne D.; Jonasson, Ian R.

    1984-10-01

    Within the epicratonic Selwyn Basin, at least three cycles can be recognized for Paleozoic time when the water column alternated from open and ventilated to closed and stratified conditions. These cycles are recorded by δ34S values in pyrite that exceed those for coeval seawater during periods of stagnation and decrease markedly during periods of greater circulation. The marked increase in δ34S values for pyrite formed in stratified seas is controlled by the high percentage of sulfate bacterially reduced to sulfide, coupled with the removal of isotopically lighter sulfur from a closed system during pyrite sedimentation. The δ34S curve for barite during this time has a shape similar to the mean evaporite curve except that it is displaced positively, particularly in Frasnian time. This pronounced increase in δ34S values for barite of Frasnian age coincides with the mixing of isotopically heavier sulfur, accumulated earlier in a stratified water column, with surface waters during a ventilation event.

  16. Secularization and changing moral views : European trends in church attendance and views on homosexuality, divorce, abortion, and euthanasia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, Loek; van Ingen, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Analysing survey data from the European Values Study, we investigate whether and how changes in church attendance bring about changes in people’s acceptance of abortion, homosexuality, divorce, and euthanasia. We argue that decreasing church attendance not only should enhance overall acceptance of

  17. Secularization and Changing Moral Views : European Trends in Church Attendance and Views on Homosexuality, Divorce, Abortion, and Euthanasia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, Loek; Van Ingen, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Analysing survey data from the European Values Study, we investigate whether and how changes in church attendance bring about changes in people's acceptance of abortion, homosexuality, divorce, and euthanasia. We argue that decreasing church attendance not only should enhance overall acceptance of

  18. Age at voice break in Danish boys: effects of pre-pubertal body mass index and secular trend

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Anders; Magnusdottir, Steinunn; Scheike, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    in the boys choir and pre-pubertal body mass index (BMI)] by survival analysis techniques based on retrospective analyses of age at voice break in 463 Danish choir boys who were studied over a 10-year period. We found an overall median age at voice break of 14.0 [13.9-14.6] years, and a statistically...

  19. [Trend sports].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, R; Pralle, H

    2015-06-01

    Popular trend sports are characterized by intensive and high speed performance. Due to the high energy mechanism in falls, typical injury distributions and patterns result. In a retrospective study the injury patterns and frequencies in mountain bike athletes were analyzed and pathophysiological, diagnostic and therapeutic options in the treatment of high energy injuries to the carpal bones are shown. Based on a retrospective survey over 2 successive years, active mountain bike athletes (World Cup Series) were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire. Injury patterns and frequencies were analyzed. The pathophysiology, diagnostics and therapy of high energy carpal injuries are discussed. In this study 107 World Cup mountain bike athletes were enrolled. Injuries of the extremities were found in more than 75% of athletes with a higher prevalence in the upper extremities (40.7%) than the lower extremities (34.84%), followed by injuries of the head and face (13.3%, of which 10.6% were traumatic brain injuries) and the trunk (10.6%). Fractures and dislocations of the hand and wrist were found in approximately half of the athletes (50.9%). In popular trend sports injuries of the extremities are common, especially of the carpal bones and ligaments. It is important to distinguish stable from destabilizing injuries in order to provide adequate therapeutic options.

  20. On the Present and Past Secular Architecture of the Terrestrial Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnor, Craig B.

    2017-06-01

    Understanding the origin, stability, and long-term evolution of the solar system is a classic problem in dynamical astronomy.Over time-scales longer than 0.1Myr the orbital evolution of the solar system is primarily driven by secular dynamics (i.e., those related to orbital precession). Indeed, using a linearised model of the solar system, Laplace and Lagrange were able to show that secular variations of the terrestrial planets' eccentricities are bounded and stable from orbit crossing.The secular architecture the terrestrial planets is often described in terms of the eccentricity and inclination amplitudes of the linear eigenmodes or in terms of the system's so-called angular momentum deficit. These quantities are constant in the linear approximation and their values for the observed solar system have been used as constraints on the primordial evolution of the planets, including models of terrestrial planet formation (e.g., Raymond et al. 2009, Jacobson and Morbidelli 2014), giant planet migration (e.g., Brasser et al. 2009, Agnor and Lin 2012) and aspects of the terrestrial late veneer (e.g., Raymond et al. 2013). However, as is well-known, the orbital evolution of the terrestrial planets is not linear and the secular amplitudes change with time. Long-term integrations and analytic arguments have shown the evolution of the inner planets to be chaotic with characteristic lyapunov times of \\sim 5 Myr (e.g., Laskar 1989, Batygin & Laughlin 2008). This nonlinear behaviour is driven by the interaction of secular resonances (e.g., Laskar 1990, Lithwick and Wu 2011). The resulting chaotic orbital diffusion of the terrestrial planets may be modest or lead to instability of the system (Laskar 2008). Further, orbital integrations demonstrate that Mercury may evolve to orbit crossing with Venus over the next 5Gyr with a probability of about one percent (Laskar and Gastineau 2009). At the meeting I will present results of new long-term orbital integrations of the solar