WorldWideScience

Sample records for evolutionary scenario based

  1. Evolutionary scenarios of Notch proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodosiou, Athina; Arhondakis, Stilianos; Baumann, Marc; Kossida, Sophia

    2009-07-01

    Notch is a highly conserved family of transmembrane receptors and transcription factors that are key players in several developmental processes. In this study, we identified novel Notch sequences from various species covering from worm to human and conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis in order to confirm and extend the evolutionary history of Notch. Our findings confirm an independent duplication event in Caenorhabditis elegans resulting in two Notch genes and show that the vertebrate Notch genes resulted from two duplication events, both of which occurred before the divergence of teleosts and tetrapoda. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the vertebrate Notch2 group is phylogenetically closer to Notch3 and that Notch2 appeared at the first round of vertebrate duplication events. Moreover, there is evidence that the two Notch1 genes in fish, appeared by a recent duplication of Notch1 in teleost after the divergence of teleost and tetrapoda. Whether this is from ancient whole genome duplication (WGD) or gene duplication remains to be elucidated. The fourth group of Notch (Notch4) was found only in mammals. We suggest two possible scenarios for the origin of the Notch4 subfamily: 1) Notch4 appeared at the time of the two WGDs in the early chordate but has been maintained only in the mammalian lineage and was lost in the other lineages, 2) a recent independent duplication event took place in the mammalian lineage. The increase of the sequencing data from Xenopus tropicalis, Gallus gallus genome projects and of other avian and reptile genomes will shed more light on this event. Nevertheless, the great divergence of Notch4, from the other three Notch genes, suggests a rapid divergence raising questions about the functional implication of this event. In addition, comparison of the organization of Notch syntenic genes among species supports the coordinated rearrangements during evolution for Ntch, PBX, and BRD families that may lead to possible functional

  2. Virulent clones of Klebsiella pneumoniae: identification and evolutionary scenario based on genomic and phenotypic characterization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvain Brisse

    Full Text Available Klebsiella pneumoniae is found in the environment and as a harmless commensal, but is also a frequent nosocomial pathogen (causing urinary, respiratory and blood infections and the agent of specific human infections including Friedländer's pneumonia, rhinoscleroma and the emerging disease pyogenic liver abscess (PLA. The identification and precise definition of virulent clones, i.e. groups of strains with a single ancestor that are associated with particular infections, is critical to understand the evolution of pathogenicity from commensalism and for a better control of infections. We analyzed 235 K. pneumoniae isolates of diverse environmental and clinical origins by multilocus sequence typing, virulence gene content, biochemical and capsular profiling and virulence to mice. Phylogenetic analysis of housekeeping genes clearly defined clones that differ sharply by their clinical source and biological features. First, two clones comprising isolates of capsular type K1, clone CC23(K1 and clone CC82(K1, were strongly associated with PLA and respiratory infection, respectively. Second, only one of the two major disclosed K2 clones was highly virulent to mice. Third, strains associated with the human infections ozena and rhinoscleroma each corresponded to one monomorphic clone. Therefore, K. pneumoniae subsp. ozaenae and K. pneumoniae subsp. rhinoscleromatis should be regarded as virulent clones derived from K. pneumoniae. The lack of strict association of virulent capsular types with clones was explained by horizontal transfer of the cps operon, responsible for the synthesis of the capsular polysaccharide. Finally, the reduction of metabolic versatility observed in clones Rhinoscleromatis, Ozaenae and CC82(K1 indicates an evolutionary process of specialization to a pathogenic lifestyle. In contrast, clone CC23(K1 remains metabolically versatile, suggesting recent acquisition of invasive potential. In conclusion, our results reveal the existence of

  3. Evolutionary scenarios for the origin of an Antarctic tardigrade species based on molecular clock analyses and biogeographic data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guidetti, R.; McInnes, S.J.; Cesari, M.; Rebecchi, L.; Rota-Stabelli, O.

    2017-01-01

    The origin of the Antarctic continental extant fauna is a highly debated topic, complicated by the paucity of organisms for which we have clear biogeographic distributions and understanding of their evolutionary timescale. To shed new light on this topic, we coupled molecular clock analyses with

  4. Mars base buildup scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  5. Sexual division of labor: energetic and evolutionary scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine

    2002-01-01

    This article examines comparative energetic data on hunter-gatherers in the context of evolutionary scenarios of the sexual division of labor, with respect to both specific task allocation and overall levels of daily physical activity. The division of labor between men and women, well marked in contemporary foraging societies, was once posited as the "true watershed" for the evolution of the genus Homo. Some research on brain-wiring even links sex differences in cognitive and spatial abilities to sex-specific foraging activities. Most recent evolutionary arguments posit that men focus on hunting and women on gathering activities to realize potentially conflicting mating and parenting goals. A range of cooperative strategies (male/female and female/female) for child provisioning is also under investigation. Attention to energetic and reproductive trade-offs has usefully challenged the proposition that women are excluded from big-game hunting due to constraints of foraging ecology and reproduction. Simplistic assumptions about gender roles are thus increasingly questioned in anthropology, as well as in archaeology. Current models in behavioral ecology explore ways in which foraging practices vary with ecological circumstances, aiming to derive testable hypotheses from fine-grained data on the behavior of contemporary hunter-gatherers. Data on overall physical activity levels (PAL) can also serve to evaluate relative male/female workloads in modern groups, reconstruct hominid energy requirements and activity profiles, and examine changes with subsistence intensification. Male/female PAL ratios show that a task-specific division of labor does not readily extrapolate to 24-hour energy expenditure and that male/female differences in workloads were not necessarily reduced with the transition to agriculture. With respect to gender roles and PAL, a shift away from facile stereotypes of human behavior is evident. The challenge is to incorporate a range of behavioral

  6. Cubic time algorithms of amalgamating gene trees and building evolutionary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A long recognized problem is the inference of the supertree S that amalgamates a given set {Gj} of trees Gj, with leaves in each Gj being assigned homologous elements. We ground on an approach to find the tree S by minimizing the total cost of mappings αj of individual gene trees Gj into S. Traditionally, this cost is defined basically as a sum of duplications and gaps in each αj. The classical problem is to minimize the total cost, where S runs over the set of all trees that contain an exhaustive non-redundant set of species from all input Gj. Results We suggest a reformulation of the classical NP-hard problem of building a supertree in terms of the global minimization of the same cost functional but only over species trees S that consist of clades belonging to a fixed set P (e.g., an exhaustive set of clades in all Gj). We developed a deterministic solving algorithm with a low degree polynomial (typically cubic) time complexity with respect to the size of input data. We define an extensive set of elementary evolutionary events and suggest an original definition of mapping β of tree G into tree S. We introduce the cost functional c(G, S, f ) and define the mapping β as the global minimum of this functional with respect to the variable f, in which sense it is a generalization of classical mapping α. We suggest a reformulation of the classical NP-hard mapping (reconciliation) problem by introducing time slices into the species tree S and present a cubic time solving algorithm to compute the mapping β. We introduce two novel definitions of the evolutionary scenario based on mapping β or a random process of gene evolution along a species tree. Conclusions Developed algorithms are mathematically proved, which justifies the following statements. The supertree building algorithm finds exactly the global minimum of the total cost if only gene duplications and losses are allowed and the given sets of gene trees satisfies a certain condition. The mapping

  7. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information; this incl......; this includes available statistical information and a short survey of emerging technologies. A scenario for Denmark is presented and consequences are discussed....

  8. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  9. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We

  10. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  11. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  12. Fossil and molecular evidence constrain scenarios for the early evolutionary and biogeographic history of hystricognathous rodents

    OpenAIRE

    Sallam, Hesham M.; Seiffert, Erik R.; Steiper, Michael E.; Simons, Elwyn L.

    2009-01-01

    The early evolutionary and paleobiogeographic history of the diverse rodent clade Hystricognathi, which contains Hystricidae (Old World porcupines), Caviomorpha (the endemic South American rodents), and African Phiomorpha (cane rats, dassie rats, and blesmols) is of great interest to students of mammalian evolution, but remains poorly understood because of a poor early fossil record. Here we describe the oldest well-dated hystricognathous rodents from an earliest late Eocene (≈37 Ma) fossil l...

  13. Evolutionary Based Solutions for Green Computing

    CERN Document Server

    Kołodziej, Joanna; Li, Juan; Zomaya, Albert

    2013-01-01

    Today’s highly parameterized large-scale distributed computing systems may be composed  of a large number of various components (computers, databases, etc) and must provide a wide range of services. The users of such systems, located at different (geographical or managerial) network cluster may have a limited access to the system’s services and resources, and different, often conflicting, expectations and requirements. Moreover, the information and data processed in such dynamic environments may be incomplete, imprecise, fragmentary, and overloading. All of the above mentioned issues require some intelligent scalable methodologies for the management of the whole complex structure, which unfortunately may increase the energy consumption of such systems.   This book in its eight chapters, addresses the fundamental issues related to the energy usage and the optimal low-cost system design in high performance ``green computing’’ systems. The recent evolutionary and general metaheuristic-based solutions ...

  14. Bioinspired evolutionary algorithm based for improving network coverage in wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasi, Mohammadjavad; Bin Abd Latiff, Muhammad Shafie; Chizari, Hassan

    2014-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) include sensor nodes in which each node is able to monitor the physical area and send collected information to the base station for further analysis. The important key of WSNs is detection and coverage of target area which is provided by random deployment. This paper reviews and addresses various area detection and coverage problems in sensor network. This paper organizes many scenarios for applying sensor node movement for improving network coverage based on bioinspired evolutionary algorithm and explains the concern and objective of controlling sensor node coverage. We discuss area coverage and target detection model by evolutionary algorithm.

  15. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  16. Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

    2017-10-01

    Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

  17. In silico identification of alternative oxidase 2 (AOX2) in monocots: A new evolutionary scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, José Hélio; Santos, Clesivan Pereira Dos; de Sousa E Lima, Beatriz; Moreira Netto, Anthônio Nunes; Saraiva, Kátia Daniella da Cruz; Arnholdt-Schmitt, Birgit

    2017-03-01

    We identified AOX2 genes in monocot species from Lemnoideae (Spirodela polyrhiza, Lemna gibba and Landoltia punctata), Pothoideae (Anthurium andraeanum and Anthurium amnicola) and Monsteroideae (Epipremnum aureum) subfamilies within the Araceae, an early-diverging monocot family. These findings highlight the presence of AOX2 in the most ancient monocot ancestor and also that at least partial loss of this gene occurred during speciation events within several monocot orders. The presence of AOX2 in monocot species challenges (1) new understanding of the evolutionary history of the AOX gene family in angiosperms and (2) drives experimental and bioinformatics efforts to explore functional relevance of the two AOX gene family members for plant growth and development. Knowledge gain in this field will impact running strategies on AOX-derived functional marker candidate development for plant breeding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  18. Scenario-based Training : Director’s Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology offers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We

  19. Fossil and molecular evidence constrain scenarios for the early evolutionary and biogeographic history of hystricognathous rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R; Steiper, Michael E; Simons, Elwyn L

    2009-09-29

    The early evolutionary and paleobiogeographic history of the diverse rodent clade Hystricognathi, which contains Hystricidae (Old World porcupines), Caviomorpha (the endemic South American rodents), and African Phiomorpha (cane rats, dassie rats, and blesmols) is of great interest to students of mammalian evolution, but remains poorly understood because of a poor early fossil record. Here we describe the oldest well-dated hystricognathous rodents from an earliest late Eocene (approximately 37 Ma) fossil locality in the Fayum Depression of northern Egypt. These taxa exhibit a combination of primitive and derived features, the former shared with Asian "baluchimyine" rodents, and the latter shared with Oligocene phiomorphs and caviomorphs. Phylogenetic analysis incorporating morphological, temporal, geographic, and molecular information places the new taxa as successive sister groups of crown Hystricognathi, and supports an Asian origin for stem Hystricognathi and an Afro-Arabian origin for crown Hystricognathi, stem Hystricidae, and stem Caviomorpha. Molecular dating of early divergences within Hystricognathi, using a Bayesian "relaxed clock" approach and multiple fossil calibrations, suggests that the split between Hystricidae and the phiomorph-caviomorph clade occurred approximately 39 Ma, and that phiomorphs and caviomorphs diverged approximately 36 Ma. These results are remarkably congruent with our phylogenetic results and the fossil record of hystricognathous rodent evolution in Afro-Arabia and South America.

  20. Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schønau-Fog, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While...

  1. On the Evolutionary Bases of Consumer Reinforcement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Michael; Xiao, Sarah Hong

    2010-01-01

    This article locates consumer behavior analysis within the modern neo-Darwinian synthesis, seeking to establish an interface between the ultimate-level theorizing of human evolutionary psychology and the proximate level of inquiry typically favored by operant learning theorists. Following an initial overview of the central tenets of neo-Darwinism,…

  2. A scenario based approach for flexible resource loading under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wullink, Gerhard; Gademann, Noud; Hans, Elias W.; van Harten, Aart

    2003-01-01

    Order acceptance decisions in manufacture-to-order environments are often made based on incomplete or uncertain information. To promise reliable due dates and to manage resource capacity adequately, resource capacity loading is an indispensable supporting tool. We propose a scenario based approach

  3. An ontology for automated scenario-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Neerincx, M.A.; Meyer, J.J.Ch.

    2014-01-01

    An intelligent system for automated scenario-based training (SBT) needs knowledge about the training domain, events taking place in the simulated environment, the behaviour of the participating characters, and teaching strategies for effective learning. This knowledge base should be theoretically

  4. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

    This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... to the policyholder. From an industry and accounting perspective, scenario-based projections allow for valuation of life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments. In this thesis, we focus on economic scenarios because they ensure a low mathematical complexity even...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...

  5. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  6. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

  7. Generating objects: a method bases on documents and scenarios ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper proposes an original method based on Froms and Scenarios analysis in the information systems( IS) Engineering domain with advantage of producing a conceptual object- oriented schema of the future IS. The advantages of our suggested approach consists in using simple elements (forms, information flowchart ...

  8. Health care professional workstation: software system construction using DSSA scenario-based engineering process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufnagel, S; Harbison, K; Silva, J; Mettala, E

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a new method for the evolutionary determination of user requirements and system specifications called scenario-based engineering process (SEP). Health care professional workstations are critical components of large scale health care system architectures. We suggest that domain-specific software architectures (DSSAs) be used to specify standard interfaces and protocols for reusable software components throughout those architectures, including workstations. We encourage the use of engineering principles and abstraction mechanisms. Engineering principles are flexible guidelines, adaptable to particular situations. Abstraction mechanisms are simplifications for management of complexity. We recommend object-oriented design principles, graphical structural specifications, and formal components' behavioral specifications. We give an ambulatory care scenario and associated models to demonstrate SEP. The scenario uses health care terminology and gives patients' and health care providers' system views. Our goal is to have a threefold benefit. (i) Scenario view abstractions provide consistent interdisciplinary communications. (ii) Hierarchical object-oriented structures provide useful abstractions for reuse, understandability, and long term evolution. (iii) SEP and health care DSSA integration into computer aided software engineering (CASE) environments. These environments should support rapid construction and certification of individualized systems, from reuse libraries.

  9. An evolutionary scenario for the origin of pentaradial echinoderms-implications from the hydraulic principles of form determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudo, Michael

    2005-01-01

    The early evolutionary history of echinoderms was reconstructed on the basis of structural-functional considerations and application of the quasi-engineering approach of 'Konstruktions-Morphologie'. According to the presented evolutionary scenario, a bilaterally symmetrical ancestor, such as an enteropneust-like organism, became gradually modified into a pentaradial echinoderm by passing through an intermediate pterobranch-like stage. The arms of a pentaradial echinoderm are identified as hydraulic outgrowths from the central coelomic cavity of the bilateral ancestor which developed due to a shortening of the body in length but widening in the diameter. The resulting pentaradial symmetry is a consequence of mechanical laws that dictate minimal contact surface areas among hydraulic pneumatic entities. These developed in the coelomic cavity (metacoel) in the bilaterally symmetrical ancestor, when from the already U-shaped mesentery with the intestinal tract two additional U-shaped bows developed directly or subsequently. During the subsequent development tensile chords of the mesentery 'sewed' the gut with the body wall first in three and secondly in five 'seams'. During the direct development five 'seams' between tensile chords and body wall developed straightly. These internal tensile chords subdivide the body coelom into five hydraulic subsystems ('pneus'), which eventually arrange in a pentaradial pattern. The body could then enlarge only between the tensile chords, which means that five hydraulic bulges developed. These bulges initially supported the tentacles and finally each of them enclosed the tentacle until only the feather-like appendages of the tentacles projected over the surface. The tentacles with their feathers were transformed into the ambulacral system, and the bulges become the arms. These morphological transformations were accompanied and partly determined by specific histological modifications, such as the development of mutable connective

  10. Expansion of biological pathways based on evolutionary inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Calvo, Sarah E; Gutman, Roee; Liu, Jun S; Mootha, Vamsi K

    2014-07-03

    The availability of diverse genomes makes it possible to predict gene function based on shared evolutionary history. This approach can be challenging, however, for pathways whose components do not exhibit a shared history but rather consist of distinct "evolutionary modules." We introduce a computational algorithm, clustering by inferred models of evolution (CLIME), which inputs a eukaryotic species tree, homology matrix, and pathway (gene set) of interest. CLIME partitions the gene set into disjoint evolutionary modules, simultaneously learning the number of modules and a tree-based evolutionary history that defines each module. CLIME then expands each module by scanning the genome for new components that likely arose under the inferred evolutionary model. Application of CLIME to ∼1,000 annotated human pathways and to the proteomes of yeast, red algae, and malaria reveals unanticipated evolutionary modularity and coevolving components. CLIME is freely available and should become increasingly powerful with the growing wealth of eukaryotic genomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  12. Assessing magnitude probability distribution through physics-based rupture scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hok, Sébastien; Durand, Virginie; Bernard, Pascal; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    When faced with complex network of faults in a seismic hazard assessment study, the first question raised is to what extent the fault network is connected and what is the probability that an earthquake ruptures simultaneously a series of neighboring segments. Physics-based dynamic rupture models can provide useful insight as to which rupture scenario is most probable, provided that an exhaustive exploration of the variability of the input parameters necessary for the dynamic rupture modeling is accounted for. Given the random nature of some parameters (e.g. hypocenter location) and the limitation of our knowledge, we used a logic-tree approach in order to build the different scenarios and to be able to associate them with a probability. The methodology is applied to the three main faults located along the southern coast of the West Corinth rift. Our logic tree takes into account different hypothesis for: fault geometry, location of hypocenter, seismic cycle position, and fracture energy on the fault plane. The variability of these parameters is discussed, and the different values tested are weighted accordingly. 64 scenarios resulting from 64 parameter combinations were included. Sensitivity studies were done to illustrate which parameters control the variability of the results. Given the weight of the input parameters, we evaluated the probability to obtain a full network break to be 15 %, while single segment rupture represents 50 % of the scenarios. These rupture scenario probability distribution along the three faults of the West Corinth rift fault network can then be used as input to a seismic hazard calculation.

  13. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be a source of creativity in ecology and evolutionary theory.

  14. Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Smeureanu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

  15. Acoustic Environments: Applying Evolutionary Algorithms for Sound based Morphogenesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foged, Isak Worre; Pasold, Anke; Jensen, Mads Brath

    2012-01-01

    The research investigates the application of evolutionary computation in relation to sound based morphogenesis. It does so by using the Sabine equation for performance benchmark in the development of the spatial volume and refl ectors, effectively creating the architectural expression as a whole...

  16. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeAngelis, D.L.; Mooij, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential and difference equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis

  17. Solution of optimal power flow using evolutionary-based algorithms

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Due to the drawbacks in classical methods, the artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been introduced to solve the OPF problem. The AI-based optimization has become an important approach for determining the global optimal solution. One of the most important intelligent search techniques is called evolutionary ...

  18. Designers' Cognitive Thinking Based on Evolutionary Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Shutao; Jianning Su; Chibing Hu; Peng Wang

    2013-01-01

    The research on cognitive thinking is important to construct the efficient intelligent design systems. But it is difficult to describe the model of cognitive thinking with reasonable mathematical theory. Based on the analysis of design strategy and innovative thinking, we investigated the design cognitive thinking model that included the external guide thinking of "width priority - depth priority" and the internal dominated thinking of "divergent thinking - convergent thinking", built a reaso...

  19. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  20. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  1. Fuzzy Logic-Based Scenario Recognition from Video Sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Elbaşi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, video surveillance and monitoring have gained importance because of security and safety concerns. Banks, borders, airports, stores, and parking areas are the important application areas. There are two main parts in scenario recognition: Low level processing, including moving object detection and object tracking, and feature extraction. We have developed new features through this work which are RUD (relative upper density, RMD (relative middle density and RLD (relative lower density, and we have used other features such as aspect ratio, width, height, and color of the object. High level processing, including event start-end point detection, activity detection for each frame and scenario recognition for sequence of images. This part is the focus of our research, and different pattern recognition and classification methods are implemented and experimental results are analyzed. We looked into several methods of classification which are decision tree, frequency domain classification, neural network-based classification, Bayes classifier, and pattern recognition methods, which are control charts, and hidden Markov models. The control chart approach, which is a decision methodology, gives more promising results than other methodologies. Overlapping between events is one of the problems, hence we applied fuzzy logic technique to solve this problem. After using this method the total accuracy increased from 95.6 to 97.2.

  2. A Survey on Evolutionary Algorithm Based Hybrid Intelligence in Bioinformatics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid advance in genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and other types of omics technologies during the past decades, a tremendous amount of data related to molecular biology has been produced. It is becoming a big challenge for the bioinformatists to analyze and interpret these data with conventional intelligent techniques, for example, support vector machines. Recently, the hybrid intelligent methods, which integrate several standard intelligent approaches, are becoming more and more popular due to their robustness and efficiency. Specifically, the hybrid intelligent approaches based on evolutionary algorithms (EAs are widely used in various fields due to the efficiency and robustness of EAs. In this review, we give an introduction about the applications of hybrid intelligent methods, in particular those based on evolutionary algorithm, in bioinformatics. In particular, we focus on their applications to three common problems that arise in bioinformatics, that is, feature selection, parameter estimation, and reconstruction of biological networks.

  3. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    There is a well-defined need for developing creativity and innovation in the classroom through fostering creative learning environments and innovative learning approaches. In a research project one approach towards a more creative classroom has been explored in a secondary school. The project...... with learning opportunities that challenge and develop their ability towards creative problem solving, as well as developing empathy and cultural understanding. This paper will present preliminary results from the research project that through a mixed methods approach has explored the implementation of games......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

  4. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  5. Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

    2016-12-01

    Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  7. Applying BAT Evolutionary Optimization to Image-Based Visual Servoing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Perez-Cisneros

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a predictive control strategy for an image-based visual servoing scheme that employs evolutionary optimization. The visual control task is approached as a nonlinear optimization problem that naturally handles relevant visual servoing constraints such as workspace limitations and visibility restrictions. As the predictive scheme requires a reliable model, this paper uses a local model that is based on the visual interaction matrix and a global model that employs 3D trajectory data extracted from a quaternion-based interpolator. The work assumes a free-flying camera with 6-DOF simulation whose results support the discussion on the constraint handling and the image prediction scheme.

  8. Some Results on Ethnic Conflicts Based on Evolutionary Game Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Qin, Jun; Wu, Hongrun; Liu, Yuhang; Tong, Xiaonian; Zheng, Bojin

    2014-01-01

    The force of the ethnic separatism, essentially origining from negative effect of ethnic identity, is damaging the stability and harmony of multiethnic countries. In order to eliminate the foundation of the ethnic separatism and set up a harmonious ethnic relationship, some scholars have proposed a viewpoint: ethnic harmony could be promoted by popularizing civic identity. However, this viewpoint is discussed only from a philosophical prospective and still lack supports of scientific evidences. Because ethic group and ethnic identity are products of evolution and ethnic identity is the parochialism strategy under the perspective of game theory, this paper proposes an evolutionary game simulation model to study the relationship between civic identity and ethnic conflict based on evolutionary game theory. The simulation results indicate that: 1) the ratio of individuals with civic identity has a positive association with the frequency of ethnic conflicts; 2) ethnic conflict will not die out by killing all ethni...

  9. Analog Circuit Design Optimization Based on Evolutionary Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Barari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates an evolutionary-based designing system for automated sizing of analog integrated circuits (ICs. Two evolutionary algorithms, genetic algorithm and PSO (Parswal particle swarm optimization algorithm, are proposed to design analog ICs with practical user-defined specifications. On the basis of the combination of HSPICE and MATLAB, the system links circuit performances, evaluated through specific electrical simulation, to the optimization system in the MATLAB environment, for the selected topology. The system has been tested by typical and hard-to-design cases, such as complex analog blocks with stringent design requirements. The results show that the design specifications are closely met. Comparisons with available methods like genetic algorithms show that the proposed algorithm offers important advantages in terms of optimization quality and robustness. Moreover, the algorithm is shown to be efficient.

  10. The Efficacy of Digital Case Scenario versus Paper Case Scenario on Clinical Reasoning in Problem Based Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zarea Gavgani Vahideh; Hazrati Hakime; Ghojazadeh Mortaza

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In medical and clinical education, creating critical thinking and promoting clinical reasoning abilities are the highest aims and results of education. The main aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of digital case scenarios versus print/paper case scenarios on clinical reasoning in problem-based learning (PBL). If a study used the multimedia scenario case interventions, video case scenarios and online-guided scenarios as digital case PBL, we would cons...

  11. Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development for Strategic Decision Support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mensonides, Maarten; Huisman, Bob; Dignum, V.

    2008-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack validation, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors,

  12. Scenario-based approach adopted in the ELECTRA project for deriving innovative control room functionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Heussen, Kai; Prostejovsky, Alexander Maria

    2017-01-01

    . The study outlines the methodology adopted, which is based on the cognitive work analysis framework, to provide an overview of the most interesting scenarios and to summarise the requirements analysis results. In order to derive required control room functionality, a set of relevant control room scenarios...... have been identified based on the Web-of-Cells control concept. The authors considered scenarios that challenge traditional control schemes, scenarios that caused major failures (i.e. blackouts), and scenarios that can be expected to appear in the future. For each scenario, information concerning...

  13. Adapting smartphone-based photoplethysmograpy to suboptimal scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Agundez, Augusto; Dutz, Tim; Goebel, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    Photoplethysmography (PPG) is an optical technique used to measure the heart rate (HR) and other cardiovascular variables by analyzing volume changes in the microvascular bed of tissue. At the moment, smartphone users can already measure their HR using PPG applications that use the smartphone's built-in camera. However, available applications are unreliable when artifacts are present, such as those caused by movement, finger pressure, or ambient light changes. This contribution aims to analyze the limitations of a smartphone-based PPG algorithm capable of measuring N-N intervals when such artifacts are present by comparing it to a 2-lead electrocardiography (ECG). By using a Bandpass filter and a zero-crossing detection algorithm on a PPG signal captured at 800  ×  600 pixels and 30 Hz, we have designed an approach capable of assessing N-N intervals when movement artifacts are present. An evaluation performed on n  =  31 users shows our algorithm is capable of measuring N-N intervals with an average relative error of 9.23 ms, when compared to a 2-lead ECG. Our approach proves the reliability of smartphone-based photoplethysmography to measure N-N intervals, even under the presence of movement artifacts, and opens the door for its future use in remote diagnosis scenarios.

  14. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... in time to do something different (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are known to offer greater advantages over other forecasting methods when uncertainty is high and historical relationships shaky (Fahey & Randall, 1998). Scenario analysis therefore seems better in tune with the current business environment......, which perhaps explains the increasing popularity of scenario analysis in business and other organizations. An institutionalised usage of scenario planning can shape a company's ability to act rather than to react in a volatile environment. Emerging weak signals (i.e. indicators of change) can...

  15. Motion Planning for Humanoid Robot Based on Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Qiu-Bo

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, online gait control system is designed for walking-up-stairs movement according to the features of humanoid robot, the hybrid evolutionary approach based on neural network optimized by particle swarm is employed for the offline training of the movement process, and the optimal gait of the stability is generated. Additionally, through embedded monocular vision, on-site environmental information is collected as neural network input, so necessary joint trajectory is output for the movement. Simulations and experiment testify the efficiency of the method.

  16. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  17. Artery Segmentation in Ultrasound Images Based on an Evolutionary Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Guzman

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Segmentation in ultrasound (US images is a challenge in computer vision, due to the high signal noise, artifacts that produce discontinuities in the boundaries and shadows that hide part of the received signal. In this paper, a solution based on ellipse fitting motivated by natural artery geometry will be proposed. To optimize the parameters that define such an ellipse, a strategy based on an evolutionary algorithm was adopted. The paper will also demonstrate that the method can be solved in a reasonable amount of time, making intensive GPGPU (general graphics processing unit, GPU, processing where excellent computing performance gain is obtained (up to 54 times faster than the parallel CPU implementation. The proposed approach is compared with other artery segmentation methods in US images, obtaining very promising results. Furthermore, the proposed approach is parameter free and does not require any initialization estimation close to the final solution.

  18. Designing, Developing and Implementing a Software Tool for Scenario Based Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Geoff; Taylor, Mathew; Stewart, Terry; Blackburn, Greg; Jinks, Audrey; Razdar, Bahareh; Holmes, Paul; Marastoni, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The pedagogical value of problem-based and inquiry-based learning activities has led to increased use of this approach in many courses. While scenarios or case studies were initially presented to learners as text-based material, the development of modern software technology provides the opportunity to deliver scenarios as e-learning modules,…

  19. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  20. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2014-01-01

    the intrinsic propagation mechanisms of the urban environment (far-field) can contribute to the distortion of the radiation pattern observed in a practical deployment scenario, especially when comparing it to the antenna pattern provided by the manufacturer and typically measured in free space. This paper......-field distortion has been evaluated by means of finite integration technique (FIT) simulations, while the far-field effects have been analyzed through intelligent ray tracing (IRT)....

  1. Communication scheme based on evolutionary spatial 2×2 games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziaukas, Pranas; Ragulskis, Tautvydas; Ragulskis, Minvydas

    2014-06-01

    A visual communication scheme based on evolutionary spatial 2×2 games is proposed in this paper. Self-organizing patterns induced by complex interactions between competing individuals are exploited for hiding and transmitting secret visual information. Properties of the proposed communication scheme are discussed in details. It is shown that the hiding capacity of the system (the minimum size of the detectable primitives and the minimum distance between two primitives) is sufficient for the effective transmission of digital dichotomous images. Also, it is demonstrated that the proposed communication scheme is resilient to time backwards, plain image attacks and is highly sensitive to perturbations of private and public keys. Several computational experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed communication scheme.

  2. Evolutionary Computing Based Area Integration PWM Technique for Multilevel Inverters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jeevananthan

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The existing multilevel carrier-based pulse width modulation (PWM strategies have no special provisions to offer quality output, besides lower order harmonics are introduced in the spectrum, especially at low switching frequencies. This paper proposes a novel multilevel PWM strategy to corner the advantages of low frequency switching and reduced total harmonic distortion (THD. The basic idea of the proposed area integration PWM (AIPWM method is that the area of the required sinusoidal (fundamental output and the total area of the output pulses are made equal. An attempt is made to incorporate two soft computing techniques namely evolutionary programming (EP and genetic algorithm (GA in the generation and placement of switching pulses. The results of a prototype seven-level cascaded inverter experimented with the novel PWM strategies are presented.

  3. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  4. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  5. Investigating the Efficiency of Scenario Based Learning and Reflective Learning Approaches in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursen, Cigdem; Fasli, Funda Gezer

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to investigate the efficiency of scenario based learning and reflective learning approaches in teacher education. The impact of applications of scenario based learning and reflective learning on prospective teachers' academic achievement and views regarding application and professional self-competence…

  6. Development of crash imminent test scenarios for Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-04-01

    This report identifies crash imminent test scenarios based on common pre-crash scenarios for integrated vehicle-based safety systems that alert the driver of a light vehicle or a heavy truck to an impending rear-end, lane change, or run-off-road cras...

  7. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  8. A Novel Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiming Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As is known, the Pareto set of a continuous multiobjective optimization problem with m objective functions is a piecewise continuous (m-1-dimensional manifold in the decision space under some mild conditions. However, how to utilize the regularity to design multiobjective optimization algorithms has become the research focus. In this paper, based on this regularity, a model-based multiobjective evolutionary algorithm with regression analysis (MMEA-RA is put forward to solve continuous multiobjective optimization problems with variable linkages. In the algorithm, the optimization problem is modelled as a promising area in the decision space by a probability distribution, and the centroid of the probability distribution is (m-1-dimensional piecewise continuous manifold. The least squares method is used to construct such a model. A selection strategy based on the nondominated sorting is used to choose the individuals to the next generation. The new algorithm is tested and compared with NSGA-II and RM-MEDA. The result shows that MMEA-RA outperforms RM-MEDA and NSGA-II on the test instances with variable linkages. At the same time, MMEA-RA has higher efficiency than the other two algorithms. A few shortcomings of MMEA-RA have also been identified and discussed in this paper.

  9. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  10. NEW SYMMETRIC ENCRYPTION SYSTEM BASED ON EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHM

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mouloudi

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we present a new symmetric encryption system which is a combination of our ciphering evolutionary system SEC [1] and a new ciphering method called “fragmentation”. This latter allows the alteration of the appearance frequencies of characters from a given text. Our system has at its disposed two keys, the first one is generated by the evolutionary algorithm, the second one is generated after “fragmentation” part. Both of them are symmetric, session keys and strengt...

  11. Evolutionary Game Theory-Based Collaborative Sensing Model in Emergency CRAHNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasirekha GVK

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Game theory has been a tool of choice for modeling dynamic interactions between autonomous systems. Cognitive radio ad hoc networks (CRAHNs constituted of autonomous wireless nodes are a natural fit for game theory-based modeling. The game theory-based model is particularly suitable for “collaborative spectrum sensing” where each cognitive radio senses the spectrum and shares the results with other nodes such that the targeted sensing accuracy is achieved. Spectrum sensing in CRAHNs, especially when used in emergency scenarios such as disaster management and military applications, needs to be not only accurate and resource efficient, but also adaptive to the changing number of users as well as signal-to-noise ratios. In addition, spectrum sensing mechanism must also be proactive, fair, and tolerant to security attacks. Existing work in collaborative spectrum sensing has mostly been confined to resource efficiency in static systems using request-based reactive sensing resulting in high latencies. In this paper, evolutionary game theory (EGT is used to model the behavior of the emergency CRAHNS, providing an efficient model for collaborative spectrum sensing. The resulting implementation model is adaptive to the changes in its environment such as signal-to-noise ratio and number of users in the network. The analytical and simulation models presented validate the system design and the desired performance.

  12. Perception-based Co-evolutionary Reinforcement Learning for UAV Sensor Allocation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berenji, Hamid

    2003-01-01

    .... A Perception-based reasoning approach based on co-evolutionary reinforcement learning was developed for jointly addressing sensor allocation on each individual UAV and allocation of a team of UAVs...

  13. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  14. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario simulations. These include a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees as well as a projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. With these scenarios projected impact...

  15. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, O.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on specifications of organizations. Organizational specifications describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations

  16. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

  17. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

    OpenAIRE

    Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Shishkov, Boris; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support the telemedicine application. These professionals develop a scenario and provide feedback to the subsequent requirements elicitation process which is based on the developed scenario. We propose a mi...

  18. Scenario-based design space exploration of MPSoCs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.

    2010-01-01

    Early design space exploration (DSE) is a key ingredient in system-level design of MPSoC-based embedded systems. The state of the art in this field typically still explores systems under a single, fixed application workload. In reality, however, the applications are concurrently executing and

  19. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kismihók, G.; Szabó, I.; Vas, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

  20. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conggang Yu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

  1. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  2. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998...

  3. Evolutionary Evaluation: implications for evaluators, researchers, practitioners, funders and the evidence-based program mandate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Jennifer Brown; Hargraves, Monica; Trochim, William M

    2014-08-01

    Evolutionary theory, developmental systems theory, and evolutionary epistemology provide deep theoretical foundations for understanding programs, their development over time, and the role of evaluation. This paper relates core concepts from these powerful bodies of theory to program evaluation. Evolutionary Evaluation is operationalized in terms of program and evaluation evolutionary phases, which are in turn aligned with multiple types of validity. The model of Evolutionary Evaluation incorporates Chen's conceptualization of bottom-up versus top-down program development. The resulting framework has important implications for many program management and evaluation issues. The paper illustrates how an Evolutionary Evaluation perspective can illuminate important controversies in evaluation using the example of the appropriate role of randomized controlled trials that encourages a rethinking of "evidence-based programs". From an Evolutionary Evaluation perspective, prevailing interpretations of rigor and mandates for evidence-based programs pose significant challenges to program evolution. This perspective also illuminates the consequences of misalignment between program and evaluation phases; the importance of supporting both researcher-derived and practitioner-derived programs; and the need for variation and evolutionary phase diversity within portfolios of programs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process - developing and testing methodologies for goal-based socio-technical scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wangel, Josefin (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies); Gustafsson, Stina (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents methodological developments and findings from the ongoing research project SitCit. SitCit is a cross-disciplinary research project in which the challenge of sustainable urban development is taken on through a futures studies approach. Rather than starting in the problematic present, SitCit takes its starting point in the desired future. Through developing scenarios of more sustainable futures and connecting these to the present, the project aims at identifying and innovating potentials for a less environmentally burdening urban life. Energy use and CO{sub 2} are the main focus, but through a complementary qualitative sustainability assessment other aspects of sustainability are also included. The scenario methodology is comprised of three separate but interconnected parts. In the Scenario Content the question what could change is at the centre, and the potential changes are sought in the physical, institutional, and socio-cultural structures of buildings, transport and citizens' everyday life. Fundamental to the Scenario Content is an iterative identification of objects and actors of change. The Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how much energy use could be decreased through these changes. This is estimated through modelling the scenario contents in terms of energy usage systems. In the Scenario Process the question of how the changes could be achieved is explored through elaborating the identified actors into a dimension of governance in the scenarios. Figure 1 presents an overview of the methodology and its integral parts. In SitCit, the methodology is developed through three scenario studies focusing on green mobility in Bromma, ICT solutions in Soedermalm and energy efficiency through refurbishment in Rinkeby-Kista. These three Stockholm City Districts all have their specific urban morphological and demographical characteristics and are chosen for contrast. This report presents the study focusing on green mobility

  5. A Scenario-Based Technique for Developing SOA Technical Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    18  Figure 5:  CBDi-SAE SOA Governance Framework 19  Figure 6:  IBM SOA Governance and Management Method 20  Figure 7:  ITIL Core Framework 21...organizations, even if they are not SOA specific, such as the Information Technol- ogy Infrastructure Library ( ITIL ) [10] These frameworks can be very...based on a standard or a widely recommended approach such as ITIL , one custom-built for the organization, or a hybrid of all of the preceding. For

  6. Log-normal based mutation evolutionary programming technique for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic dispatch requires a reliable optimization technique so loss is minimal. This paper presents Log-Normal Evolutionary Programming (LNEP) technique for solving Economic Dispatch (ED) problem considering loss minimization. Validations on the IEEE 6-bus and IEEE 26-bus test systems demonstrated that LNEP is ...

  7. Integrating of scenario-based simulation into radiology education to improve critical thinking skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abuzaid MM

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available MM Abuzaid, W Elshami Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates Introduction: For many years, conventional radiographic films have been used for radiology education. Nevertheless, advances in imaging modalities, image quality, and the number of images produced by various methods have seen a move toward digital formats. Certainly, a patient’s case has a significant value in medical education; it can transfer theoretical knowledge to real experiences. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of scenario-based simulations in radiology education and their impact on professional learning outcomes.Materials and methods: Patient scenarios were collected and converted to digital teaching files, each supported by clinical history, anatomy illustration, as well as medical and radiological investigation. The scenarios were presented online to radiology professionals for 6 months. At the end of the study, the scenarios were evaluated regarding design, content, and their role in improving critical thinking.Results: Twenty-two scenarios were published online covering various radiology areas. Two hundred and thirty-eight radiology professionals were invited, and 84% participated in the evaluation process. Each participant completed an average of 13 scenarios with an approximate time of 23 minutes for each. The majority of participants agreed or strongly agreed that the scenarios were well designed (94%, were appropriate to their level of knowledge (70%, and helped them in critical thinking and in understanding similar cases (79%. Conclusion: The integration of scenario-based simulations in radiology education led to a positive impact on learning outcomes, formative interactive learning, and filling the gap between theory and practice. Moreover, it promoted critical thinking skills and allowed radiology professionals to demonstrate their knowledge of similar cases

  8. Designing a scenario-based syllabus for young learners

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson, Adam John

    2013-01-01

    As we tentatively proceed into this brave new teaching world of the 21st century, much debate is centering on the effective teaching of English to young learners. Key to this discussion has been the role of the young learner syllabus. While this article makes reference to the teaching of English to young learners in an ESL context based on documentation developed within the European Union, the issues raised are by no means particularly specific to this region nor merely to the teaching of the...

  9. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova

    2012-01-01

    For WLAN systems in which relaying is exploited for improving throughput performance, node mobility and in- formation collection delays can have a significant impact on the performance of a relay selection scheme. This paper analyzes this influence on the decision process using a previously...... developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility...

  10. A first analysis of 3-bunches and 1-bunch scenario for the SPL based Proton Driver

    CERN Document Server

    Aiba, M

    2008-01-01

    The SPL based proton driver for a future neutrino factory has been proposed and studied. The use of the SPL proton driver requires an accumulator and an compressor for forming the output time structure required for the neutrino factory. While the number of bunches per burst could be varied in a range of 1-6, it is preferred to be as small as possible for the muon accelerators and storage ring. Thus a scenario of fewer number of bunches is discussed in this note based on the results from the study of 6-bunches scenario. The new scenario enables to have two operation modes, 3-bunches and 1-bunch, using the same accumulator and compressor. Although not everything is covered in this first analysis, the 3-bunches and 1-bunch scenario seems achievable.

  11. Agent-based simulation of alternative classroom evacuation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runjiao Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the growing number of emergency accidents occurring around students, evacuation issues have become significantly important for both school officials and architects. Simply following construction codes cannot ensure that a building׳s layout is suitable for evacuation behaviors; therefore, to discover the suitable planning schemes, we have introduced an agent-based simulation model via Netlogo to investigate the interrelationships between evacuation efficiency and classroom layouts. Before conducting modeling experiments, both the simulation structure and the sensitivity to its parameter settings are examined by validation research and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, to demonstrate the importance of conducting fire drills with students, two different types of behavior rules are designed to reflect the distinctive characteristics of students evacuating without instructions and students evacuating in good order. The general comparison results show us that the classroom layout with two exits shortens students׳ evacuation time, and the premeditated behavior rules, meaning that students who follow preset instructions to arrange their activities, not only escape faster but also have some advantages in ensuring their safety during the evacuation process. Moreover, at the end of this paper, several methods of improving this simulation model are proposed for more complex research in the future.

  12. The evolutionary history of holometabolous insects inferred from transcriptome-based phylogeny and comprehensive morphological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite considerable progress in systematics, a comprehensive scenario of the evolution of phenotypic characters in the mega-diverse Holometabola based on a solid phylogenetic hypothesis was still missing. We addressed this issue by de novo sequencing transcriptome libraries of representatives of all orders of holometabolan insects (13 species in total) and by using a previously published extensive morphological dataset. We tested competing phylogenetic hypotheses by analyzing various specifically designed sets of amino acid sequence data, using maximum likelihood (ML) based tree inference and Four-cluster Likelihood Mapping (FcLM). By maximum parsimony-based mapping of the morphological data on the phylogenetic relationships we traced evolutionary transformations at the phenotypic level and reconstructed the groundplan of Holometabola and of selected subgroups. Results In our analysis of the amino acid sequence data of 1,343 single-copy orthologous genes, Hymenoptera are placed as sister group to all remaining holometabolan orders, i.e., to a clade Aparaglossata, comprising two monophyletic subunits Mecopterida (Amphiesmenoptera + Antliophora) and Neuropteroidea (Neuropterida + Coleopterida). The monophyly of Coleopterida (Coleoptera and Strepsiptera) remains ambiguous in the analyses of the transcriptome data, but appears likely based on the morphological data. Highly supported relationships within Neuropterida and Antliophora are Raphidioptera + (Neuroptera + monophyletic Megaloptera), and Diptera + (Siphonaptera + Mecoptera). ML tree inference and FcLM yielded largely congruent results. However, FcLM, which was applied here for the first time to large phylogenomic supermatrices, displayed additional signal in the datasets that was not identified in the ML trees. Conclusions Our phylogenetic results imply that an orthognathous larva belongs to the groundplan of Holometabola, with compound eyes and well-developed thoracic legs

  13. The evolutionary history of holometabolous insects inferred from transcriptome-based phylogeny and comprehensive morphological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ralph S; Meusemann, Karen; Petersen, Malte; Mayer, Christoph; Wilbrandt, Jeanne; Ziesmann, Tanja; Donath, Alexander; Kjer, Karl M; Aspöck, Ulrike; Aspöck, Horst; Aberer, Andre; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Friedrich, Frank; Hünefeld, Frank; Niehuis, Oliver; Beutel, Rolf G; Misof, Bernhard

    2014-03-20

    Despite considerable progress in systematics, a comprehensive scenario of the evolution of phenotypic characters in the mega-diverse Holometabola based on a solid phylogenetic hypothesis was still missing. We addressed this issue by de novo sequencing transcriptome libraries of representatives of all orders of holometabolan insects (13 species in total) and by using a previously published extensive morphological dataset. We tested competing phylogenetic hypotheses by analyzing various specifically designed sets of amino acid sequence data, using maximum likelihood (ML) based tree inference and Four-cluster Likelihood Mapping (FcLM). By maximum parsimony-based mapping of the morphological data on the phylogenetic relationships we traced evolutionary transformations at the phenotypic level and reconstructed the groundplan of Holometabola and of selected subgroups. In our analysis of the amino acid sequence data of 1,343 single-copy orthologous genes, Hymenoptera are placed as sister group to all remaining holometabolan orders, i.e., to a clade Aparaglossata, comprising two monophyletic subunits Mecopterida (Amphiesmenoptera + Antliophora) and Neuropteroidea (Neuropterida + Coleopterida). The monophyly of Coleopterida (Coleoptera and Strepsiptera) remains ambiguous in the analyses of the transcriptome data, but appears likely based on the morphological data. Highly supported relationships within Neuropterida and Antliophora are Raphidioptera + (Neuroptera + monophyletic Megaloptera), and Diptera + (Siphonaptera + Mecoptera). ML tree inference and FcLM yielded largely congruent results. However, FcLM, which was applied here for the first time to large phylogenomic supermatrices, displayed additional signal in the datasets that was not identified in the ML trees. Our phylogenetic results imply that an orthognathous larva belongs to the groundplan of Holometabola, with compound eyes and well-developed thoracic legs, externally feeding on plants or

  14. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across......Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death...... and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our...

  15. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  16. Global 15 x 15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled GDP Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global 15x15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled GDP Based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025, are geospatial...

  17. Global 15 x 15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled Population Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global 15x15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled Population Based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025, are geospatial...

  18. The centricity of presence in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation: a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnington, Renee M

    2015-01-01

    Enhancing immersive presence has been shown to have influence on learning outcomes in virtual types of simulation. Scenario-based human patient simulation, a mixed reality form, may pose unique challenges for inducing the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. A model for enhancing the centricity of presence in scenario-based human patient simulation is presented here. The model represents a theoretical linkage among the interaction of pedagogical, individual, and group factors that influence the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. Presence may have an important influence on the learning experiences and learning outcomes in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation. This report is a follow-up to an article published in 2014 by the author where connections were made to the theoretical basis of presence as articulated by nurse scholars. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  20. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

    2017-08-31

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  1. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  2. Evolutionary analysis of DNA-protein-coding regions based on a genetic code cube metric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Robersy

    2014-01-01

    The right estimation of the evolutionary distance between DNA or protein sequences is the cornerstone of the current phylogenetic analysis based on distance methods. Herein, it is demonstrated that the Manhattan distance (dw), weighted by the evolutionary importance of the nucleotide bases in the codon, is a naturally derived metric in the standard genetic code cube inserted into the three-dimensional Euclidean space. Based on the application of distance dw, a novel evolutionary model is proposed. This model includes insertion/deletion mutations that are very important for cancer studies, but usually discarded in classical evolutionary models. In this study, the new evolutionary model was applied to the phylogenetic analysis of the DNA protein-coding regions of 13 mammal mitochondrial genomes and of four cancer genetic- susceptibility genes (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2 and p53) from nine mammals. The opossum (a marsupial) was used as an out-group species for both sets of sequences. The new evolutionary model yielded the correct topology, while the current models failed to separate the evolutionarily distant species of mouse and opossum.

  3. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  4. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  5. A New DG Multiobjective Optimization Method Based on an Improved Evolutionary Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanxing Sheng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A distribution generation (DG multiobjective optimization method based on an improved Pareto evolutionary algorithm is investigated in this paper. The improved Pareto evolutionary algorithm, which introduces a penalty factor in the objective function constraints, uses an adaptive crossover and a mutation operator in the evolutionary process and combines a simulated annealing iterative process. The proposed algorithm is utilized to the optimize DG injection models to maximize DG utilization while minimizing system loss and environmental pollution. A revised IEEE 33-bus system with multiple DG units was used to test the multiobjective optimization algorithm in a distribution power system. The proposed algorithm was implemented and compared with the strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm 2 (SPEA2, a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm, and nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NGSA-II. The comparison of the results demonstrates the validity and practicality of utilizing DG units in terms of economic dispatch and optimal operation in a distribution power system.

  6. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  7. Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yijia; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Zhijian

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the dynamic processes of a real game system requires an appropriate dynamics model, and rigorously testing a dynamics model is nontrivial. In our methodological research, we develop an approach to testing the validity of game dynamics models that considers the dynamic patterns of angular momentum and speed as measurement variables. Using Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) games as an example, we illustrate the geometric patterns in the experiment data. We then derive the related theoretical patterns from a series of typical dynamics models. By testing the goodness-of-fit between the experimental and theoretical patterns, we show that the validity of these models can be evaluated quantitatively. Our approach establishes a link between dynamics models and experimental systems, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the most effective and rigorous strategy for ascertaining the testability of evolutionary game dynamics models.

  8. An Evolutionary Ontology Approach for Community-Based Competency Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baer, Peter; Meersman, Robert; Zhao, Gang

    In this article we describe an evolutionary ontology approach that distinguishes between major ontology changes and minor ontology changes. We divide the community in three (possibly overlapping) groups, i.e. facilitators, contributors, and users. Facilitators are a selected group of domain experts who represent the intended community. These facilitators define the intended goals of the ontology and will be responsible for major ontology and ontology platform changes. A larger group of contributors consists of all participating domain experts. The contributors will carry out minor ontology changes, like instantiation of concepts and description of concept instances. Users of the ontology may explore the ontology content via the ontology platform and/or make use of the published ontology content in XML or HTML format. The approach makes use of goal and group specific user interfaces to guide the ontology evolution process. For the minor ontology changes, the approach relies on the wisdom of crowds.

  9. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  10. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  11. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of

  12. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  13. Time Pressure in Scenario-Based Online Construction Safety Quizzes and Its Effect on Students' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Martin; Adair, Desmond

    2017-01-01

    Online quizzes have been shown to be effective learning and assessment approaches. However, if scenario-based online construction safety quizzes do not include time pressure similar to real-world situations, they reflect situations too ideally. The purpose of this paper is to compare engineering students' performance when carrying out an online…

  14. Teaching Early Childhood Education Students through Interactive Scenario-Based Course Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Kathleen Mary; Kelly, Melissa A.

    2012-01-01

    Early childhood teacher education courses must prepare students for the types of challenges they will face in communities and classrooms after graduation. By adopting a scenario-based approach, teacher educators and others designing online environments can help prepare students for these challenges. Solving complex problems inherent in a…

  15. Kalman filter for speech enhancement in cocktail party scenarios using a codebook-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kavalekalam, Mathew Shaji; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Gran, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Enhancement of speech in non-stationary background noise is a challenging task, and conventional single channel speech enhancement algorithms have not been able to improve the speech intelligibility in such scenarios. The work proposed in this paper investigates a single channel Kalman filter based...

  16. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  17. Adapting Scenario-Based Curriculum Materials to Community College Technical Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarnall, Louise; Toyama, Yukie; Gong, Bowyee; Ayers, Catherine; Ostrander, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Community college educators seek to infuse their workforce courses with more "real world" activities. This 3-year case study examined how 7 instructors and 78 students in California and Texas responded to the changes involved in implementing one type of reform program--the scenario-based curriculum (Schank, 1997). The study shows that…

  18. Usability of the EMERGO player environment for scenario-based serious games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slootmaker, Aad; Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub; Hummel, Hans; Koper, Rob

    2017-01-01

    The EMERGO online platform enables the development and delivery of scenario-based serious games that foster students in acquiring professional competence. One of the main goals of the platform was to provide a user-friendly player environment that enables students to learn complex cognitive

  19. Mind map our way into effective student questioning: A principle-based scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokhof, Harry; De Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding

  20. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...

  1. An Ontology-Based Scenario for Teaching the Management of Health Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Franziska; Schaaf, Michael; Kahmann, Christian; Tahar, Kais; Kücherer, Christian; Paech, Barbara; Winter, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    The terminology for the management of health information systems is characterized by complexity and polysemy which is both challenging for medical informatics students and practitioners. SNIK, an ontology of information management (IMI) in hospitals, brings together IM concepts from different literature sources. Based on SNIK, we developed a blended learning scenario to teach medical informatics students IM concepts and their relationships. In proof-of-concept teaching units, students found the use of SNIK in teaching and learning motivating and useful. In the next step, the blended learning scenario will be rolled out to an international course for medical informatics students.

  2. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Competitive Information Dissemination on Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Social networks are formed by individuals, in which personalities, utility functions, and interaction rules are made as close to reality as possible. Taking the competitive product-related information as a case, we proposed a game-theoretic model for competitive information dissemination in social networks. The model is presented to explain how human factors impact competitive information dissemination which is described as the dynamic of a coordination game and players’ payoff is defined by a utility function. Then we design a computational system that integrates the agent, the evolutionary game, and the social network. The approach can help to visualize the evolution of % of competitive information adoption and diffusion, grasp the dynamic evolution features in information adoption game over time, and explore microlevel interactions among users in different network structure under various scenarios. We discuss several scenarios to analyze the influence of several factors on the dissemination of competitive information, ranging from personality of individuals to structure of networks.

  3. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  4. Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-07-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

  5. Species co-evolutionary algorithm: a novel evolutionary algorithm based on the ecology and environments for optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Wuzhao; Wang, Lei; Cai, Xingjuan

    2015-01-01

    and affect each other in many ways. The relationships include competition, predation, parasitism, mutualism and pythogenesis. In this paper, we consider the five relationships between solutions to propose a co-evolutionary algorithm termed species co-evolutionary algorithm (SCEA). In SCEA, five operators...

  6. Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

  7. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  8. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manns, Patricia J; Darrah, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors' curriculum research study. Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1) identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2) literature search; (3) develop scenario framework; and (4) write scenario. Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios - ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation. The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists' reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.

  9. Evolutionary placement of Xanthomonadales based on conserved protein signature sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutiño-Jiménez, Ania M; Martins-Pinheiro, Marinalva; Lima, Wanessa C; Martín-Tornet, Alexander; Morales, Osleidys G; Menck, Carlos F M

    2010-02-01

    Xanthomonadales comprises one of the largest phytopathogenic bacterial groups, and is currently classified within the gamma-proteobacteria. However, the phylogenetic placement of this group is not clearly resolved, and the results of different studies contradict one another. In this work, the evolutionary position of Xanthomonadales was determined by analyzing the presence of shared insertions and deletions (INDELs) in highly conserved proteins. Several distinctive insertions found in most of the members of the gamma-proteobacteria are absent in Xanthomonadales and groups such as Legionelalles, Chromatiales, Methylococcales, Thiotrichales and Cardiobacteriales. These INDELs were most likely introduced after the branching of Xanthomonadales from most of the gamma-proteobacteria and provide evidence for the phylogenetic placement of the early gamma-proteobacteria. Moreover, other proteins contain insertions exclusive to the Xanthomonadales order, confirming that this is a monophyletic group and provide important specific genetic markers. Thus, the data presented clearly support the Xanthomonadales group as an independent subdivision, and constitute one of the deepest branching lineage within the gamma-proteobacteria clade. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Kernel method based human model for enhancing interactive evolutionary optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Yan; Zhao, Qiangfu; Liu, Yong

    2015-01-01

    A fitness landscape presents the relationship between individual and its reproductive success in evolutionary computation (EC). However, discrete and approximate landscape in an original search space may not support enough and accurate information for EC search, especially in interactive EC (IEC). The fitness landscape of human subjective evaluation in IEC is very difficult and impossible to model, even with a hypothesis of what its definition might be. In this paper, we propose a method to establish a human model in projected high dimensional search space by kernel classification for enhancing IEC search. Because bivalent logic is a simplest perceptual paradigm, the human model is established by considering this paradigm principle. In feature space, we design a linear classifier as a human model to obtain user preference knowledge, which cannot be supported linearly in original discrete search space. The human model is established by this method for predicting potential perceptual knowledge of human. With the human model, we design an evolution control method to enhance IEC search. From experimental evaluation results with a pseudo-IEC user, our proposed model and method can enhance IEC search significantly.

  11. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Wagner Jonas; Binkowski Eva; Bronsart Robert

    2014-01-01

    In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis ...

  12. An optimization method based on scenario analysis for watershed management under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lijing; Dai, Yongli; Fan, Yingying

    2007-05-01

    In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.

  13. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... plan to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding in current climate to a very low level. The economic benefit in the A1B scenario is substantial, and even in the 6 degree scenario the frequency of flooding is not much higher than national recommendations...... simulations. These include a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees as well as a projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. With these scenarios projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges the impacts do not seem...

  14. Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

  15. Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Beecroft

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

  16. An AmI-Based Software Architecture Enabling Evolutionary Computation in Blended Commerce: The Shopping Plan Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe D’Aniello

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work describes an approach to synergistically exploit ambient intelligence technologies, mobile devices, and evolutionary computation in order to support blended commerce or ubiquitous commerce scenarios. The work proposes a software architecture consisting of three main components: linked data for e-commerce, cloud-based services, and mobile apps. The three components implement a scenario where a shopping mall is presented as an intelligent environment in which customers use NFC capabilities of their smartphones in order to handle e-coupons produced, suggested, and consumed by the abovesaid environment. The main function of the intelligent environment is to help customers define shopping plans, which minimize the overall shopping cost by looking for best prices, discounts, and coupons. The paper proposes a genetic algorithm to find suboptimal solutions for the shopping plan problem in a highly dynamic context, where the final cost of a product for an individual customer is dependent on his previous purchases. In particular, the work provides details on the Shopping Plan software prototype and some experimentation results showing the overall performance of the genetic algorithm.

  17. Cultural evolutionary design of adaptive wavelet filters based on lifting scheme for micro-instruments

    CERN Document Server

    Manna, C; Romanucci, Carmine; Zanesco, Antonio; Arpaia, Pasquale

    2010-01-01

    An evolutionary procedure based on cultural algorithms for the optimal design of adaptive wavelet filters based on lifting scheme is proposed. Numerical results of characterization, based on statistical experiment design, as well as validation, based on the comparison with a genetic optimization algorithm, are presented. Experimental results of the validation on two case studies for reducing uncertainty arising from noise in on-field corrosion rate measurements are highlighted. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. An Evolutionary-Based Framework for Analyzing Mold and Dampness-Associated Symptoms in DMHS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daschner, Alvaro

    2016-01-01

    Among potential environmental harmful factors, fungi deserve special consideration. Their intrinsic ability to actively germinate or infect host tissues might determine a prominent trigger in host defense mechanisms. With the appearance of fungi in evolutionary history, other organisms had to evolve strategies to recognize and cope with them. Existing controversies around dampness and mold hypersensitivity syndrome (DMHS) can be due to the great variability of clinical symptoms but also of possible eliciting factors associated with mold and dampness. An hypothesis is presented, where an evolutionary analysis of the different response patterns seen in DMHS is able to explain the existing variability of disease patterns. Classical interpretation of immune responses and symptoms are addressed within the field of pathophysiology. The presented evolutionary analysis seeks for the ultimate causes of the vast array of symptoms in DMHS. Symptoms can be interpreted as induced by direct (toxic) actions of spores, mycotoxins, or other fungal metabolites, or on the other side by the host-initiated response, which aims to counterbalance and fight off potentially deleterious effects or fungal infection. Further, individual susceptibility of immune reactions can confer an exaggerated response, and magnified symptoms are then explained in terms of immunopathology. IgE-mediated allergy fits well in this scenario, where individuals with an atopic predisposition suffer from an exaggerated response to mold exposure, but studies addressing why such responses have evolved and if they could be advantageous are scarce. Human history is plenty of plagues and diseases connected with mold exposure, which could explain vulnerability to mold allergy. Likewise, multiorgan symptoms in DMHS are analyzed for its possible adaptive role not only in the defense of an active infection, but also as evolved mechanisms for avoidance of potentially harmful environments in an evolutionary past or present

  19. Fuzzy Cognitive Map scenario-based medical decision support systems for education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgopoulos, Voula C; Chouliara, Spyridoula; Stylios, Chrysostomos D

    2014-01-01

    Soft Computing (SC) techniques are based on exploiting human knowledge and experience and they are extremely useful to model any complex decision making procedure. Thus, they have a key role in the development of Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSS). The soft computing methodology of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps has successfully been used to represent human reasoning and to infer conclusions and decisions in a human-like way and thus, FCM-MDSSs have been developed. Such systems are able to assist in critical decision-making, support diagnosis procedures and consult medical professionals. Here a new methodology is introduced to expand the utilization of FCM-MDSS for learning and educational purposes using a scenario-based learning (SBL) approach. This is particularly important in medical education since it allows future medical professionals to safely explore extensive "what-if" scenarios in case studies and prepare for dealing with critical adverse events.

  20. SIMULATION OF SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT FEATURES BASED ON SCENARIOS IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF IASI CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRA BLĂGEANU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of suburban development features based on scenarios in the eastern side of Iasi city Suburbanization, a complex process well-developed pre-eminently after the fall of communism, is characterized by a spontaneous, sometimes ambiguous, evolution comparatively to the urban planning specific to the former period. The phenomenon, typical to large cities, has known different stages that were enforced by local factors, creating, thus, an uncertain, chaotic and hard to control suburban fringe. This approach highlights the features of the named process; the first step is aimed to identify some urban models by analyzing those administrative units which are into a continuous motion, namely the communes Barnova, Miroslava and Valea Lupului. Based on the urban blueprints identified in the first part of the approach, will be imagined/built scenarios which will predict the rhythm of suburban expansion in two chosen communes located in the eastern side of Iasi city.

  1. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

    2015-01-01

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflec...... systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges....... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater......Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect...

  2. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre

    2010-01-01

    have been implemented in the UPPAAL tool and built as a tool chain, respectively. We try out the prototype verification tools on a number of examples and case studies. Experimental results indicate that these methods are viable, computationally feasible,and the tools are effective.......Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one...

  3. Signal Reconstruction from Nonuniformly Spaced Samples Using Evolutionary Slepian Transform-Based POCS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senay Seda

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the reconstruction of signals from nonuniformly spaced samples using a projection onto convex sets (POCSs implemented with the evolutionary time-frequency transform. Signals of practical interest have finite time support and are nearly band-limited, and as such can be better represented by Slepian functions than by sinc functions. The evolutionary spectral theory provides a time-frequency representation of nonstationary signals, and for deterministic signals the kernel of the evolutionary representation can be derived from a Slepian projection of the signal. The representation of low pass and band pass signals is thus efficiently done by means of the Slepian functions. Assuming the given nonuniformly spaced samples are from a signal satisfying the finite time support and the essential band-limitedness conditions with a known center frequency, imposing time and frequency limitations in the evolutionary transformation permit us to reconstruct the signal iteratively. Restricting the signal to a known finite time and frequency support, a closed convex set, the projection generated by the time-frequency transformation converges into a close approximation to the original signal. Simulation results illustrate the evolutionary Slepian-based transform in the representation and reconstruction of signals from irregularly-spaced and contiguous lost samples.

  4. Multistage stochastic programming: A scenario tree based approach to planning under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Defourny, Boris; Ernst, Damien; Wehenkel, Louis

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter, we present the multistage stochastic programming framework for sequential decision making under uncertainty. We discuss its differences with Markov Decision Processes, from the point of view of decision models and solution algorithms. We describe the standard technique for solving approximately multistage stochastic problems, which is based on a discretization of the disturbance space called scenario tree. We insist on a critical issue of the approach: the decisions can be ve...

  5. Scenario Analysis of Web Service Composition based on Multi-Criteria Mathematical Goal Programming

    OpenAIRE

    LiYing Cui; Soundar Kumara; Dongwon Lee

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the web service composition problem considering multi-criteria regarding quality of services (QoS). Three different scenarios of multi-criteria mathematical programming models are explored under the framework of network based analysis in web service composition. This work takes care of the issues pertaining to inputs and outputs matching of web services and Quality-of-Service (QoS) at the same time. The multi-criteria programming models are explored to select the desirabl...

  6. Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

    2017-01-01

    Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... to integrate multi-dimensional change, from technology, regulation, value-chain dynamics, and value proposition evolution. We further conclude that the approach is particularly valuable in environments that are characterized by a high level of uncertainty and complexity....

  7. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Study on Cooperative Mechanism of Prefabricated Producers Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongyao Feng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Good cooperation mechanism is an important guarantee for the advancement of industrialization construction. To strengthen the partnership between producers, we analyze the behavior evolution trend of both parties using an evolutionary game theory. Based on the original model, the mechanism of coordination and cooperation between prefabricated producers is explained under the condition of punishment and incentive. The results indicate that stable evolutionary strategies exist under both cooperation and noncooperation, and the evolutionary results are influenced by the initial proportion of both decision-making processes. The government can support the production enterprises to establish a solid partnership through effective punishment and incentive mechanisms to reduce the initial cost in the supply chain of prefabricated construction, resulting in a win-win situation.

  9. Constrained Optimization Based on Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm and Adaptive Constraint-Handling Technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yong; Cai, Zixing; Zhou, Yuren

    2009-01-01

    A novel approach to deal with numerical and engineering constrained optimization problems, which incorporates a hybrid evolutionary algorithm and an adaptive constraint-handling technique, is presented in this paper. The hybrid evolutionary algorithm simultaneously uses simplex crossover and two...... mutation operators to generate the offspring population. Additionally, the adaptive constraint-handling technique consists of three main situations. In detail, at each situation, one constraint-handling mechanism is designed based on current population state. Experiments on 13 benchmark test functions...... and four well-known constrained design problems verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. The experimental results show that integrating the hybrid evolutionary algorithm with the adaptive constraint-handling technique is beneficial, and the proposed method achieves competitive...

  10. Social referencing and child anxiety: the evolutionary based role of fathers' versus mothers' signals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Möller, E.L.; Majdandžić, M.; Vriends, N.; Bögels, S.M.

    2014-01-01

    Children use signals from others to guide their behavior when confronted with potentially dangerous situations, so called social referencing. Due to evolutionary based different expertise of fathers and mothers, parents might be different social references for their children. The present study

  11. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  12. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  13. A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozek, Matthew L.; Donahue, Kenneth M.; Ingham, Michel D.; Kaderka, Justin D.

    2015-01-01

    Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

  14. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öttl, Anton; Behne, Dawn M

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors), participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  15. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Öttl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  16. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding under the current climate to a very low level. The reduction in flood risk for the A1B scenario is substantial (corresponding to 0.2-0.3 times the current EAD in 2100), and even in the high-end scenarios, the risk...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...

  17. Cat swarm optimization based evolutionary framework for multi document summarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautray, Rasmita; Balabantaray, Rakesh Chandra

    2017-07-01

    Today, World Wide Web has brought us enormous quantity of on-line information. As a result, extracting relevant information from massive data has become a challenging issue. In recent past text summarization is recognized as one of the solution to extract useful information from vast amount documents. Based on number of documents considered for summarization, it is categorized as single document or multi document summarization. Rather than single document, multi document summarization is more challenging for the researchers to find accurate summary from multiple documents. Hence in this study, a novel Cat Swarm Optimization (CSO) based multi document summarizer is proposed to address the problem of multi document summarization. The proposed CSO based model is also compared with two other nature inspired based summarizer such as Harmony Search (HS) based summarizer and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based summarizer. With respect to the benchmark Document Understanding Conference (DUC) datasets, the performance of all algorithms are compared in terms of different evaluation metrics such as ROUGE score, F score, sensitivity, positive predicate value, summary accuracy, inter sentence similarity and readability metric to validate non-redundancy, cohesiveness and readability of the summary respectively. The experimental analysis clearly reveals that the proposed approach outperforms the other summarizers included in the study.

  18. Controller Design of DFIG Based Wind Turbine by Using Evolutionary Soft Computational Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Bharti

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript illustrates the controller design for a doubly fed induction generator based variable speed wind turbine by using a bioinspired scheme. This methodology is based on exploiting two proficient swarm intelligence based evolutionary soft computational procedures. The particle swarm optimization (PSO and bacterial foraging optimization (BFO techniques are employed to design the controller intended for small damping plant of the DFIG. Wind energy overview and DFIG operating principle along with the equivalent circuit model is adequately discussed in this paper. The controller design for DFIG based WECS using PSO and BFO are described comparatively in detail. The responses of the DFIG system regarding terminal voltage, current, active-reactive power, and DC-Link voltage have slightly improved with the evolutionary soft computational procedure. Lastly, the obtained output is equated with a standard technique for performance improvement of DFIG based wind energy conversion system.

  19. Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

    2017-03-01

    Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

  20. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...... mechanism. The statistical properties of the monitoring system (the distribution of the detectable damage) are estimated using a log-linear regression for signal response data from simulation. The value of monitoring is then calculated as the difference in expected utility for the structure with...

  1. A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J. B.; Brincker, R.; López-Aenlle, M.; Overgaard, C. F.; Kloborg, K.

    2017-09-01

    In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes. The present method differs by being based on modal data extracted by means of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) combined with a reasonable Finite Element (FE) representation of the test structure and implemented in a scenario-based framework. Besides a review of the basic methodology this paper addresses fundamental theoretical as well as practical considerations which are crucial to the applicability of a given vibration-based damage assessment configuration. Lastly, the technique is demonstrated on an experimental test case using automated OMA. Both the numerical study as well as the experimental test case presented in this paper are restricted to perturbations concerning mass change.

  2. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  3. Evolutionary Approach Based on Active Edges Detection for Images Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slatnia Sihem

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available There are many methods for segmentation which vary strongly in their approach to the problem of image segmentation. In this paper, We specified the study in a particular segmentation method of radiological images based on the active edges detection. The optimize solutions was chosen as the genetic algorithm optimization method, and to compare this formalism with other existing methods, we chose a greedy algorithm is criterion for its timeliness. we propose a method of genetic active edge detection in images gray level. In fact, for the convergence of the edge to the object edges, we use the classic and the greedy method. Indeed, the proposed method is based on the active edges optimization using the genetic algorithms process to minimize a sum various energies, in order to evolve a population of snakes to an individual who has the minimum energy.

  4. Drug-target interaction prediction from PSSM based evolutionary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavian, Zaynab; Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Kavousi, Kaveh; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali

    2016-01-01

    The labor-intensive and expensive experimental process of drug-target interaction prediction has motivated many researchers to focus on in silico prediction, which leads to the helpful information in supporting the experimental interaction data. Therefore, they have proposed several computational approaches for discovering new drug-target interactions. Several learning-based methods have been increasingly developed which can be categorized into two main groups: similarity-based and feature-based. In this paper, we firstly use the bi-gram features extracted from the Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) of proteins in predicting drug-target interactions. Our results demonstrate the high-confidence prediction ability of the Bigram-PSSM model in terms of several performance indicators specifically for enzymes and ion channels. Moreover, we investigate the impact of negative selection strategy on the performance of the prediction, which is not widely taken into account in the other relevant studies. This is important, as the number of non-interacting drug-target pairs are usually extremely large in comparison with the number of interacting ones in existing drug-target interaction data. An interesting observation is that different levels of performance reduction have been attained for four datasets when we change the sampling method from the random sampling to the balanced sampling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

    2017-07-01

    Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

  6. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  7. ITO-based evolutionary algorithm to solve traveling salesman problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenyong; Sheng, Kang; Yang, Chuanhua; Yi, Yunfei

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, a ITO algorithm inspired by ITO stochastic process is proposed for Traveling Salesmen Problems (TSP), so far, many meta-heuristic methods have been successfully applied to TSP, however, as a member of them, ITO needs further demonstration for TSP. So starting from designing the key operators, which include the move operator, wave operator, etc, the method based on ITO for TSP is presented, and moreover, the ITO algorithm performance under different parameter sets and the maintenance of population diversity information are also studied.

  8. Intelligent Financial Portfolio Composition based on Evolutionary Computation Strategies

    CERN Document Server

    Gorgulho, Antonio; Horta, Nuno C G

    2013-01-01

    The management of financial portfolios or funds constitutes a widely known problematic in financial markets which normally requires a rigorous analysis in order to select the most profitable assets. This subject is becoming popular among computer scientists which try to adapt known Intelligent Computation techniques to the market’s domain. This book proposes a potential system based on Genetic Algorithms, which aims to manage a financial portfolio by using technical analysis indicators. The results are promising since the approach clearly outperforms the remaining approaches during the recent market crash.

  9. Application of evolutionary algorithm-based symbolic regression to language assessment: Toward nonlinear modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Vahid Aryadoust

    2015-01-01

    This study applies evolutionary algorithm-based (EA-based) symbolic regression to assess the ability of metacognitive strategy use tested by the metacognitive awareness listening questionnaire (MALQ) and lexico-grammatical knowledge to predict listening comprehension proficiency among English learners. Initially, the psychometric validity of the MALQ subscales, the lexico-grammatical test, and the listening test was examined using the logistic Rasch model and the Rasch-Andrich rating scale mo...

  10. Evolutionary Cluster-Based Synthetic Oversampling Ensemble (ECO-Ensemble) for Imbalance Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Pin; Goh, Chi Keong; Tan, Kay Chen

    2017-09-01

    Class imbalance problems, where the number of samples in each class is unequal, is prevalent in numerous real world machine learning applications. Traditional methods which are biased toward the majority class are ineffective due to the relative severity of misclassifying rare events. This paper proposes a novel evolutionary cluster-based oversampling ensemble framework, which combines a novel cluster-based synthetic data generation method with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) to create an ensemble. The proposed synthetic data generation method is based on contemporary ideas of identifying oversampling regions using clusters. The novel use of EA serves a twofold purpose of optimizing the parameters of the data generation method while generating diverse examples leveraging on the characteristics of EAs, reducing overall computational cost. The proposed method is evaluated on a set of 40 imbalance datasets obtained from the University of California, Irvine, database, and outperforms current state-of-the-art ensemble algorithms tackling class imbalance problems.

  11. A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sho Fukuda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks

  12. Vanpool trip planning based on evolutionary multiple objective optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ming; Yang, Disheng; Feng, Shibing; Liu, Hengchang

    2017-08-01

    Carpool and vanpool draw a lot of researchers’ attention, which is the emphasis of this paper. A concrete vanpool operation definition is given, based on the given definition, this paper tackles vanpool operation optimization using user experience decline index(UEDI). This paper is focused on making each user having identical UEDI and the system having minimum sum of all users’ UEDI. Three contributions are made, the first contribution is a vanpool operation scheme diagram, each component of the scheme is explained in detail. The second contribution is getting all customer’s UEDI as a set, standard deviation and sum of all users’ UEDI set are used as objectives in multiple objective optimization to decide trip start address, trip start time and trip destination address. The third contribution is a trip planning algorithm, which tries to minimize the sum of all users’ UEDI. Geographical distribution of the charging stations and utilization rate of the charging stations are considered in the trip planning process.

  13. A Self-adaptive Dynamic Evaluation Model for Diabetes Mellitus, Based on Evolutionary Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An-Jiang Lu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate diabetes mellitus objectively and accurately, this paper builds a self-adaptive dynamic evaluation model for diabetes mellitus, based on evolutionary strategies. First of all, on the basis of a formalized description of the evolutionary process of diabetes syndromes, using a state transition function, it judges whether a disease is evolutionary, through an excitation parameter. It then, provides evidence for the rebuilding of the evaluation index system. After that, by abstracting and rebuilding the composition of evaluation indexes, it makes use of a heuristic algorithm to determine the composition of the evolved evaluation index set of diabetes mellitus, It then, calculates the weight of each index in the evolved evaluation index set of diabetes mellitus by building a dependency matrix and realizes the self-adaptive dynamic evaluation of diabetes mellitus under an evolutionary environment. Using this evaluation model, it is possible to, quantify all kinds of diagnoses and treatment experiences of diabetes and finally to adopt ideal diagnoses and treatment measures for different patients with diabetics.

  14. A multiobjective evolutionary algorithm to find community structures based on affinity propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ronghua; Luo, Shuang; Zhang, Weitong; Stolkin, Rustam; Jiao, Licheng

    2016-07-01

    Community detection plays an important role in reflecting and understanding the topological structure of complex networks, and can be used to help mine the potential information in networks. This paper presents a Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Affinity Propagation (APMOEA) which improves the accuracy of community detection. Firstly, APMOEA takes the method of affinity propagation (AP) to initially divide the network. To accelerate its convergence, the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm selects nondominated solutions from the preliminary partitioning results as its initial population. Secondly, the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm finds solutions approximating the true Pareto optimal front through constantly selecting nondominated solutions from the population after crossover and mutation in iterations, which overcomes the tendency of data clustering methods to fall into local optima. Finally, APMOEA uses an elitist strategy, called ;external archive;, to prevent degeneration during the process of searching using the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. According to this strategy, the preliminary partitioning results obtained by AP will be archived and participate in the final selection of Pareto-optimal solutions. Experiments on benchmark test data, including both computer-generated networks and eight real-world networks, show that the proposed algorithm achieves more accurate results and has faster convergence speed compared with seven other state-of-art algorithms.

  15. Hybrid Co-Evolutionary Motion Planning via Visibility-Based Repair

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, Gerry; McCullough, Shaun; Brown, Edward, Jr.; Homaifar, Abdollah; Bikdash, Mar-wan

    1997-01-01

    This paper introduces a hybrid co-evolutionary system for global motion planning within unstructured environments. This system combines the concept of co-evolutionary search along with a concept that we refer to as the visibility-based repair to form a hybrid which quickly transforms infeasible motions into feasible ones. Also, this system makes use of a novel representation scheme for the obstacles within an environment. Our hybrid evolutionary system differs from other evolutionary motion planners in that (1) more emphasis is placed on repairing infeasible motions to develop feasible motions rather than using simulated evolution exclusively as a means of discovering feasible motions, (2) a continuous map of the environment is used rather than a discretized map, and (3) it develops global motion plans for multiple mobile destinations by co-evolving populations of sub-global motion plans. In this paper, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this system by using it to solve two challenging motion planning problems where multiple targets try to move away from a point robot.

  16. Data Based Prediction of Blood Glucose Concentrations Using Evolutionary Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo, J Ignacio; Colmenar, J Manuel; Kronberger, Gabriel; Winkler, Stephan M; Garnica, Oscar; Lanchares, Juan

    2017-08-08

    Predicting glucose values on the basis of insulin and food intakes is a difficult task that people with diabetes need to do daily. This is necessary as it is important to maintain glucose levels at appropriate values to avoid not only short-term, but also long-term complications of the illness. Artificial intelligence in general and machine learning techniques in particular have already lead to promising results in modeling and predicting glucose concentrations. In this work, several machine learning techniques are used for the modeling and prediction of glucose concentrations using as inputs the values measured by a continuous monitoring glucose system as well as also previous and estimated future carbohydrate intakes and insulin injections. In particular, we use the following four techniques: genetic programming, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, and grammatical evolution. We propose two new enhanced modeling algorithms for glucose prediction, namely (i) a variant of grammatical evolution which uses an optimized grammar, and (ii) a variant of tree-based genetic programming which uses a three-compartment model for carbohydrate and insulin dynamics. The predictors were trained and tested using data of ten patients from a public hospital in Spain. We analyze our experimental results using the Clarke error grid metric and see that 90% of the forecasts are correct (i.e., Clarke error categories A and B), but still even the best methods produce 5 to 10% of serious errors (category D) and approximately 0.5% of very serious errors (category E). We also propose an enhanced genetic programming algorithm that incorporates a three-compartment model into symbolic regression models to create smoothed time series of the original carbohydrate and insulin time series.

  17. Incorporating scenario-based simulation into a hospital nursing education program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagle, Beth M; McHale, Jeanne M; Alexander, Gail A; French, Brian M

    2009-01-01

    Nurse educators are challenged to provide meaningful and effective learning opportunities for both new and experienced nurses. Simulation as a teaching and learning methodology is being embraced by nursing in academic and practice settings to provide innovative educational experiences to assess and develop clinical competency, promote teamwork, and improve care processes. This article provides an overview of the historical basis for using simulation in education, simulation methodologies, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. It also provides a description of the integration of scenario-based programs using a full-scale patient simulator into nursing education programming at a large academic medical center.

  18. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved.......This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...

  19. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, V. K.; Aslam, O.; Dale, L.; Miller, N.; Purkey, D.

    2010-12-01

    Cities in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa, at the same time that their water resource is threatened by domestic waste and industrial pollution. Urban centers use local springs, wetlands and Lake Victoria as source waters. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three pilot towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Their current populations are 100,000, 70,000 and 200,000 respectively. Demand coverage is ~70% in Masaka and Bukoba, and less than 50% in Kisii. IWRM models for each town were calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios upto 2050. In Masaka, flow and climate data were available to calibrate a runoff model to simulate streamflow at water intake. In Masaka, without considering climate change, the system is infrastructure-limited and not water availability (hydrology) limited until 2035, under projected population growth of 2.17%. Under a wet climate scenario as projected by GCM’s for the LV region, the current wetland source could supply all expected demands until 2050. Even under a drought scenario, the wetland could supply all demand until 2032, if the supply infrastructure is updated at an estimated cost of USD 10.8 million. However, demand targets can only be met at the expense of almost no water returning to the wetland downstream of the intake by 2035, unless substantial investments

  20. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Jonas

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel’s calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  1. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Wagner

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  2. Scenario Object Model Based On-Line Safety Analysis for Chemical Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Analysis is a method of safety analysis, which is widely used in chemical processes. The conventional methods for safety analysis consist of human based safety analysis and computer aid safety analysis. All of them are off-line and qualitative and it is difficult to carry out on-line safety analysis. On-line safety analysis based on scenario object model was proposed for chemical processes. The scenario object model was built using ontology, by which the safety information can be transferred, reused and shared effectively. Deviation degree and qualitative trend were added to the model. Based on the model and new inference algorithm, on-line safety analysis can be implemented for chemical processes. Once a fault or abnormal event occurs, the causes can be traced and the consequences can be predicted. At the same time, semi-quantitative safety analysis is carried out. The resolution can be improved and it can help the operators handle the problems in time and effectively. The method was used for safety analysis of a reactor process and the effectiveness of the method was proved.

  3. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at

  4. Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Soulard, Christopher E.

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

  5. The Simulation Study of the Change of Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises Based on Evolutionary Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui QIN

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article tries to analyze the characteristics of the accounting standard for business enterprises, which is based on the idea of evolutionary game, in order to build a game model between stakeholders, and to conduct the simulation of the game model with NetLogo software. It shows the performance of all participants in the course of the game in a dynamic process, and the simulation results are analyzed, accordingly.

  6. The Simulation Study of the Change of Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises Based on Evolutionary Game

    OpenAIRE

    Qin, Rui; Zhaoquan JIAN

    2015-01-01

    This article tries to analyze the characteristics of the accounting standard for business enterprises, which is based on the idea of evolutionary game, in order to build a game model between stakeholders, and to conduct the simulation of the game model with NetLogo software. It shows the performance of all participants in the course of the game in a dynamic process, and the simulation results are analyzed, accordingly.

  7. Microalgae-based biodiesel: a multicriteria analysis of the production process using realistic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Carmen M; Ríos, Sergio D; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-11-01

    Microalgae-based biodiesel has several benefits over other resources such as less land use, potential cultivation in non-fertile locations, faster growth and especially a high lipid-to-biodiesel yield. Nevertheless, the environmental and economic behavior for high scale production depends on several variables that must be addressed in the scale-up procedure. In this sense, rigorous modeling and multicriteria evaluation are performed in order to achieve optimal topology for third generation biodiesel production. Different scenarios and the most promising technologies tested at pilot scale are assessed. Besides, the sensitivity analysis allows the detection of key operating variables and assumptions that have a direct effect on the lipid content. The deviation of these variables may lead to an erroneous estimation of the scale-up performance of the technology reviewed in the microalgae-based biodiesel process. The modeling and evaluation of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification help to identify greener and cheaper alternatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Web-based hybrid-dimensional Visualization and Exploration of Cytological Localization Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovanci, Gökhan; Ghaffar, Mehmood; Sommer, Björn

    2016-12-21

    The CELLmicrocosmos 4.2 PathwayIntegration (CmPI) is a tool which provides hybrid-dimensional visualization and analysis of intracellular protein and gene localizations in the context of a virtual 3D environment. This tool is developed based on Java/Java3D/JOGL and provides a standalone application compatible to all relevant operating systems. However, it requires Java and the local installation of the software. Here we present the prototype of an alternative web-based visualization approach, using Three.js and D3.js. In this way it is possible to visualize and explore CmPI-generated localization scenarios including networks mapped to 3D cell components by just providing a URL to a collaboration partner. This publication describes the integration of the different technologies – Three.js, D3.js and PHP – as well as an application case: a localization scenario of the citrate cycle. The CmPI web viewer is available at: http://CmPIweb.CELLmicrocosmos.org.

  9. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2018-01-01

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czisch, G. [Univ. of Kassel, Inst. for Electrical Engineering - Efficient Energy Conversion (Germany); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2007-05-15

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  11. Diagnosing Surgical Site Infection Using Wound Photography: A Scenario-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanger, Patrick C; Simianu, Vlad V; Gaskill, Cameron E; Armstrong, Cheryl A L; Hartzler, Andrea L; Lordon, Ross J; Lober, William B; Evans, Heather L

    2017-01-01

    Postoperative surgical site infections (SSI) are common and costly. Most occur post discharge, and can result in potentially preventable readmission or unnecessary urgent evaluation. Mobile health approaches incorporating patient-generated wound photos are being implemented in an attempt to optimize triage and management. We assessed how adding wound photos to existing data sources modifies provider decision making. We used a web-based simulation survey using a convenience sample of providers with expertise in surgical infections. Participants viewed a range of scenarios, including surgical history, physical exam, and description of wound appearance. All participants reported SSI diagnosis, diagnostic confidence, and management recommendations (main outcomes) first without, and then with, accompanying wound photos. At each step, participants ranked the most important features contributing to their decision. Eighty-three participants completed a median of 5 scenarios (interquartile range 4 to 7). Most participants were physicians in academic surgical specialties (n = 70 [84%]). The addition of photos improved overall diagnostic accuracy from 67% to 76% (p < 0.001), and increased specificity from 77% to 92% (p < 0.001), but did not significantly increase sensitivity (55% to 65%; p = 0.16). Photos increased mean confidence in diagnosis from 5.9 of 10 to 7.4 of 10 (p < 0.001). Overtreatment recommendations decreased from 48% to 16% (p < 0.001), and undertreatment did not change (28% to 23%; p = 0.20) with the addition of photos. The addition of wound photos to existing data as available via chart review and telephone consultation with patients significantly improved diagnostic accuracy and confidence, and prevented proposed overtreatment in scenarios without SSI. Post-discharge mobile health technologies have the potential to facilitate patient-centered care, decrease costs, and improve clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by

  12. Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mullekom, T.L. van; Vennix, J.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This

  13. Realism in paediatric emergency simulations: A prospective comparison of in situ, low fidelity and centre-based, high fidelity scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Fenton; Pegiazoglou, Ioannis; McGarvey, Kathryn; Novakov, Ruza; Wolfsberger, Ingrid; Peat, Jennifer

    2017-11-16

    To measure scenario participant and faculty self-reported realism, engagement and learning for the low fidelity, in situ simulations and compare this to high fidelity, centre-based simulations. A prospective survey of scenario participants and faculty completing in situ and centre-based paediatric simulations. There were 382 responses, 276 from scenario participants and 106 from faculty with 241 responses from in situ and 141 from centre-based simulations. Scenario participant responses showed significantly higher ratings for the centre-based simulations for respiratory rate (P = 0.007), pulse (P = 0.036), breath sounds (P = 0.002), heart sounds (P realism for engagement and learning. © 2017 The Authors Emergency Medicine Australasia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  14. Evolutionary Information Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Burgin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary information theory is a constructive approach that studies information in the context of evolutionary processes, which are ubiquitous in nature and society. In this paper, we develop foundations of evolutionary information theory, building several measures of evolutionary information and obtaining their properties. These measures are based on mathematical models of evolutionary computations, machines and automata. To measure evolutionary information in an invariant form, we construct and study universal evolutionary machines and automata, which form the base for evolutionary information theory. The first class of measures introduced and studied in this paper is evolutionary information size of symbolic objects relative to classes of automata or machines. In particular, it is proved that there is an invariant and optimal evolutionary information size relative to different classes of evolutionary machines. As a rule, different classes of algorithms or automata determine different information size for the same object. The more powerful classes of algorithms or automata decrease the information size of an object in comparison with the information size of an object relative to weaker4 classes of algorithms or machines. The second class of measures for evolutionary information in symbolic objects is studied by introduction of the quantity of evolutionary information about symbolic objects relative to a class of automata or machines. To give an example of applications, we briefly describe a possibility of modeling physical evolution with evolutionary machines to demonstrate applicability of evolutionary information theory to all material processes. At the end of the paper, directions for future research are suggested.

  15. Scoping Report for a Scenario-Based Planning Protocol for Application in the Regions of Army Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-12-01

    boards, planning organizations, and other interest groups. The objective of this work is to describe a regional scenario-based land use planning methodology...and explore how a standardized protocol for comprehensive military land use planning in a regional context could be developed and applied. This...military land use planning , and presents characteristics and criteria for development of a generalized scenario-based planning protocol adapted for military

  16. Microalgae-based biodiesel: economic analysis of downstream process realistic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos, Sergio D; Torres, Carmen M; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-05-01

    Microalgae oil has been identified as a reliable resource for biodiesel production due to its high lipid productivity and potential cultivation in non-fertile locations. However, high scale production of microalgae based biodiesel depends on the optimization of the entire process to be economically feasible. The selected strain, medium, harvesting methods, etc., sorely affects the ash content in the dry biomass which have a direct effect in the lipid content. Moreover, the suitable lipids for biodiesel production, some of the neutral/saponifiable, are only a fraction of the total ones (around 30% dry base biomass in the best case). The present work uses computational tools for the modeling of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification. This rigorous modeling approach detects process bottlenecks that could have led to an overestimation of the potentiality of the microalgae lipids as a resource for the biodiesel production. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A Scenario-Based Framework for Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Theodor J.; Scott, Leanne

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the evolution of a general group decision-making or negotiation support procedure for water resources planning at a strategic level (such as regional development planning), based on principles of multicriteria decision analysis. A number of difficulties have been encountered in applying many of the standard multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tools and techniques directly in this context. The paper introduces a broader framework in which these difficulties may be overcome, so that MCDM tools can be used effectively for evaluating strategic planning options. This framework is based on direct evaluation of sequences of "policy scenarios," which are neither a full set of possible planning "alternatives," nor fully specified down to the finest level of detail. The overall procedure and some experiences in applying it within the context of regional water resource planning in South Africa are discussed.

  18. Scenario-based Simulation of Criticality Concerning the Transportation of Dangerous Goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The critical infrastructure protection domain, through its social implications, is a relatively new research topic, and a science in this regard is not setup yet. Its complexity, through the operational subsumed areas, through the interdependencies and cascading possible effects, through the many facets for investigation, is a special one which imposes specific approaches. This paper intends to continue the investigations in this field, which are conducted in an individual manner or by research teams, by authors with concerns in this regard who agreed to allocate to the topical subject a special attention based on its importance, beyond an exclusive approach – as a special topic. This time, there are brought into attention the issues related to chemical industry sector correlated with actual associated implications of necessary transportation activities in this field. Simulation-based scenario is the main technique employed as a research methodology by using dedicated software.

  19. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  20. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  1. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Requena-Mullor

    Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

  2. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  3. Assessing nitrate leaching losses with simulation scenarios and model based fertiliser recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, A.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Hartmann, T.; Yue, S. C.; Chen, X. P.

    2012-04-01

    Excessive mineral nitrogen fertiliser application and irrigation in intensive agricultural cropping systems is seen as a major reason for low water and nitrogen use efficiencies in the North China Plain. High nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation water inputs do not only lead to higher production costs but also to decreasing ground water tables, nitrate accumulation in deeper soil layers below the root zone and water pollution. To evaluate the effects of improved management practices on environmental pollution risk, the HERMES model is used to simulate nitrate leaching losses. The HERMES model is a dynamic, process based crop model made for practical applications such as fertiliser recommendations. The model was tested and validated on two field studies in the south of the Hebei Province that lasted for about three years with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system. Biomass, grain yield, plant N uptake and soil water content were better simulated than mineral nitrogen in the soil. A model based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation was applied in the field for one wheat crop. The parallel model simulation showed satisfying results. Although there was no change in the amount of irrigation, the results indicated a possibility to reduce the fertiliser rate and thus nitrogen leaching even more than in the reduced treatment without reducing crop yields. Further more a simulation scenario with a model based fertiliser recommendation and a field capacity based irrigation was compared to farmers practice and reduced nitrogen treatment. The scenario results showed that the model recommendation together with the reduced irrigation has the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching. The results also showed that flood irrigation as practiced by the farmers and its difficult to estimate amounts of water bears a big uncertainty for modelling.

  4. A Cybersemiotic Approach to Agent Based Simulation of Evolutionary Processes within Digital Business Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Georgescu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The global evolutionary business environment is increasingly populated by a large number of networked organizations interacting with each other and with a variety of environmental conditions to adapt, evolve and maintain them under conditions of good control. This paper proposes cybersemiotics as a conceptual framework for agent based simulation of decision making processes within Digital Business Ecosystems, which are complex, evolutionary, self-organizing, autopoietic, and knowledge-centric business environments. We argue that semiotic agents are equipped with most appropriate characteristics to accomplish such a task. They are deliberative, dynamically uncoupled to their environments, engage processes of perception, interpretation, decision and action with their environments, possess internally stored representations of measured states of affairs, goal states and possible actions, have means to describe and handle their own preferences and beliefs, can coordinate actions and learn about their environment through communication.

  5. The evolutionary analysis of the ultimatum game based on the net-profit decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu; Ye, Shun-qiang; Jones, Michael C.; Ye, Ye; Wang, Meng; Xie, Neng-gang

    2015-07-01

    In an ultimatum game where competitive pressures and alternating roles exist, we suppose that players make their decisions based on the net profit of their own. Here we conduct a behavioral experiment in a selection examination, and then we establish a model and study the evolution of strategies on square lattices. In this model, we specify a player's strategy with two parameters: offer level α ∈ [ 0 , 1) and net profit acceptance level β ∈ [ - 1 , 1) . Evolutionary results show that individuals characterized by fairness (α → 0.5) and moderate kindness (β kindness rather than fairness increases the average payoff of the whole population. Moreover, we conclude that the emergence of kindness is promoted by the spatial structure, and eventually the evolutionary advantage is gained by kindness.

  6. Multidistribution Center Location Based on Real-Parameter Quantum Evolutionary Clustering Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huaixiao Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To determine the multidistribution center location and the distribution scope of the distribution center with high efficiency, the real-parameter quantum-inspired evolutionary clustering algorithm (RQECA is proposed. RQECA is applied to choose multidistribution center location on the basis of the conventional fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm (FCM. The combination of the real-parameter quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm (RQIEA and FCM can overcome the local search defect of FCM and make the optimization result independent of the choice of initial values. The comparison of FCM, clustering based on simulated annealing genetic algorithm (CSAGA, and RQECA indicates that RQECA has the same good convergence as CSAGA, but the search efficiency of RQECA is better than that of CSAGA. Therefore, RQECA is more efficient to solve the multidistribution center location problem.

  7. EvoBuild: A Quickstart Toolkit for Programming Agent-Based Models of Evolutionary Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagh, Aditi; Wilensky, Uri

    2017-10-01

    Extensive research has shown that one of the benefits of programming to learn about scientific phenomena is that it facilitates learning about mechanisms underlying the phenomenon. However, using programming activities in classrooms is associated with costs such as requiring additional time to learn to program or students needing prior experience with programming. This paper presents a class of programming environments that we call quickstart: Environments with a negligible threshold for entry into programming and a modest ceiling. We posit that such environments can provide benefits of programming for learning without incurring associated costs for novice programmers. To make this claim, we present a design-based research study conducted to compare programming models of evolutionary processes with a quickstart toolkit with exploring pre-built models of the same processes. The study was conducted in six seventh grade science classes in two schools. Students in the programming condition used EvoBuild, a quickstart toolkit for programming agent-based models of evolutionary processes, to build their NetLogo models. Students in the exploration condition used pre-built NetLogo models. We demonstrate that although students came from a range of academic backgrounds without prior programming experience, and all students spent the same number of class periods on the activities including the time students took to learn programming in this environment, EvoBuild students showed greater learning about evolutionary mechanisms. We discuss the implications of this work for design research on programming environments in K-12 science education.

  8. Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Hagemann

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways.

  9. A Novel Cooperation-Based Network Coding Scheme for Walking Scenarios in WBANs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyun Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs, the tradeoff between network throughput and energy efficiency remains a key challenge. Most current transmission schemes try to cope with the challenge from the perspective of general Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs, which may not take the peculiarities of WBAN channels into account. In this paper, we take advantage of the correlation of on-body channels in walking scenarios to achieve a better tradeoff between throughput and energy consumption. We first analyze the characteristics of on-body channels based on realistic channel gain datasets, which are collected by our customized wireless transceivers in walking scenarios. The analytical results confirm the rationale of our newly proposed transmission scheme A3NC, which explores the combination of the aggregative allocation (AA mechanism in MAC layer and the Analog Network Coding (ANC technique in PHY layer. Both theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the A3NC scheme achieves significant improvement in upload throughput and energy efficiency, compared to the conventional approaches.

  10. Evolutionary analysis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 therapies based on conditionally replicating vectors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruian Ke

    Full Text Available Efforts to reduce the viral load of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1 during long-term treatment are challenged by the evolution of anti-viral resistance mutants. Recent studies have shown that gene therapy approaches based on conditionally replicating vectors (CRVs could have many advantages over anti-viral drugs and other approaches to therapy, potentially including the ability to circumvent the problem of evolved resistance. However, research to date has not explored the evolutionary consequences of long-term treatment of HIV-1 infections with conditionally replicating vectors. In this study, we analyze a computational model of the within-host co-evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1 and conditionally replicating vectors, using the recently proposed 'therapeutic interfering particle' as an example. The model keeps track of the stochastic process of viral mutation, and the deterministic population dynamics of T cells as well as different strains of CRV and HIV-1 particles. We show that early in the co-infection, mutant HIV-1 genotypes that escape suppression by CRV therapy appear; this is similar to the dynamics observed in drug treatments and other gene therapies. In contrast to other treatments, however, the CRV population is able to evolve and catch up with the dominant HIV-1 escape mutant and persist long-term in most cases. On evolutionary grounds, gene therapies based on CRVs appear to be a promising tool for long-term treatment of HIV-1. Our model allows us to propose design principles to optimize the efficacy of this class of gene therapies. In addition, because of the analogy between CRVs and naturally-occurring defective interfering particles, our results also shed light on the co-evolutionary dynamics of wild-type viruses and their defective interfering particles during natural infections.

  11. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  12. USING ECO-EVOLUTIONARY INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODELS TO INVESTIGATE SPATIALLY-DEPENDENT PROCESSES IN CONSERVATION GENETICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-evolutionary population simulation models are powerful new forecasting tools for exploring management strategies for climate change and other dynamic disturbance regimes. Additionally, eco-evo individual-based models (IBMs) are useful for investigating theoretical feedbacks ...

  13. The Evopopbot Chip: Ultra High-throughput Evolutionary Population Bottlenecking using Drop-Based Microfluidics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Connie; Rotem, Assaf; Serohijos, Adrian; Zhang, Huidan; Tao, Ye; Fischer Hesselbrock, Audrey; Thielen, Peter; Mehoke, Thomas; Wolfe, Joshua; Wobus, Christiane; Feldman, Andrew; Shakhnovich, Eugene; Weitz, David

    2014-03-01

    The study of how viruses propagate is important for curing disease and preventing viral outbreaks. In nature, viruses can compete with one another, and the most evolutionary fit virus usually takes over a population. Yet there exist variants in the population that can escape subjected evolutionary pressures and eventually dominate the population. Successful studies of viral epidemics hinges on the ability to access these variants. Here, we present the use of droplet-based microfluidics as a simple method to segregate and propagate a viral population as individual viral lineages, simultaneously performing millions of in vitroevolutionary bottlenecking experiments. We introduce a novel microfluidic device, called the ``Evopopbot Chip'', that allows for simultaneous passaging of millions of evolutionary bottlenecking events by splitting drops containing previous generations of viruses and merging with drops containing new host cells. After several generations of viral replication in the evolution chip, we discover hundreds of new viruses that are able to escape a neutralizing antibody selection pressure compared to bulk passaging.

  14. Towards Behavior Control for Evolutionary Robot Based on RL with ENN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingan Yang

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a behavior-switching control strategy of an evolutionary robot based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN and genetic algorithm (GA. This method is able not only to construct the reinforcement learning models for autonomous robots and evolutionary robot modules that control behaviors and reinforcement learning environments, and but also to perform the behavior-switching control and obstacle avoidance of an evolutionary robot in the unpredictable environments with the static and moving obstacles by combining ANN and GA. The experimental results have demonstrated that our method can perform the decision-making strategy and parameter setup optimization of ANN and GA by learning and can effectively escape from a trap of local minima, avoid motion deadlock status of humanoid soccer robotic agents, and reduce the oscillation of the planned trajectory among the multiple obstacles by crossover and mutation. We have successfully applied some results of the proposed algorithm to our simulation humanoid robotic soccer team CIT3D which won the 1st prize of RoboCup Championship and ChinaOpen2010 and the 2nd place of the official RoboCup World Championship on 5-11, July 2011 in Istanbul, Turkey. In comparison with the conventional behavior network and the adaptive behavior method, our algorithm simplified the genetic encoding complexity, improved the convergence rate ρ and the network performance.

  15. From a quasi-static fluid-based evolutionary topology optimization to a generalization of BESO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daróczy, László; Jármai, Károly

    2015-05-01

    A new algorithm is proposed for topology optimization based on a fluid dynamics analogy. It possesses characteristics similar to most well-known methods, such as the Evolutionary Structural Optimization (ESO)/Bidirectional Evolutionary Structural Optimization (BESO) method due to Xie and Steven (1993, "A Simple Evolutionary Procedure for Structural Optimisation." Computers and Structures 49 (5): 885-896.), which works with discrete values, and the Solid Isotropic Material with Penalization (SIMP) method due to Bendsøe (1989, "Optimal Shape Design as aMaterial Distribution Problem." Structural Optimization 1 (4): 193-202.) and Zhou and Rozvany (1991, "The COCAlgorithm-Part II: Topological, Geometry and Generalized Shape Optimization." Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 89 (1-3): 309-336.) (using Optimality Criterion (OC) or Method of Moving Asymptotes (MMA)), which works with intermediate values, as it is able to work both with discrete and intermediate densities, but always yields a solution with discrete densities. It can be proven mathematically that the new method is a generalization of the BESO method and using appropriate parameters it will operate exactly as the BESO method. The new method is less sensitive to rounding errors of the matrix solver as compared to the BESO method and is able to give alternative topologies to well-known problems. The article presents the basic idea and the optimization algorithm, and compares the results of three cantilever optimizations to the results of the SIMP and BESO methods.

  16. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  18. NodIO, a JavaScript framework for volunteer-based evolutionary algorithms : first results

    OpenAIRE

    Merelo, Juan-J.; García-Valdez, Mario; Castillo, Pedro A.; García-Sánchez, Pablo; Cuevas, P. de las; Rico, Nuria

    2016-01-01

    JavaScript is an interpreted language mainly known for its inclusion in web browsers, making them a container for rich Internet based applications. This has inspired its use, for a long time, as a tool for evolutionary algorithms, mainly so in browser-based volunteer computing environments. Several libraries have also been published so far and are in use. However, the last years have seen a resurgence of interest in the language, becoming one of the most popular and thus spawning the improvem...

  19. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  20. Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Patrick Philbin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

  1. Scenario-Based Training on Human Errors Contributing to Security Incidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Pond, Daniel J.; Jannotta, Marjorie

    2004-12-06

    Error assessment studies reveal that ''human errors'' are often the consequence of unsuitable environmental factors, ineffective systems, inappropriate task conditions, and individual actions or failures to act. The US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a program to determine if system-induced human errors could also be contributing factors to security incidents. As the seminal basis for this work, the Enhanced Security Through Human Error Reduction (ESTHER) program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) produced a contributing factors data set and systems categorization for security related incidents attributed to human error. This material supports the development and delivery of training for security incident inquiry officials. While LANL's initial work focused on classroom training, a collaborative effort between LANL and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has focused on delivering interactive e-Learning training applications based on ESTHER principles. Through training, inquiry officials will understand and be capable of applying the underlying human error control concepts to new or novel situations. Their performance requires a high degree of analysis and judgment to accomplish the associated cognitive and procedural tasks. To meet this requirement, we employed cognitive principles of instructional design to engage the learner in interactive, realistic, problem-centered activity; we constructed scenarios within a guided-discovery framework; and we utilized learner-centered developmental sequences leading to field application. To enhance the relevance and realism of the training experience, we employed 3-D modeling technologies in constructing interactive scenarios. This paper describes the application of cognitive learning principles, use of varied media, and the implementation challenges in developing a technology-rich, interactive security incident training program that includes Web-based training.

  2. [Evolutionary medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wjst, M

    2013-12-01

    Evolutionary medicine allows new insights into long standing medical problems. Are we "really stoneagers on the fast lane"? This insight might have enormous consequences and will allow new answers that could never been provided by traditional anthropology. Only now this is made possible using data from molecular medicine and systems biology. Thereby evolutionary medicine takes a leap from a merely theoretical discipline to practical fields - reproductive, nutritional and preventive medicine, as well as microbiology, immunology and psychiatry. Evolutionary medicine is not another "just so story" but a serious candidate for the medical curriculum providing a universal understanding of health and disease based on our biological origin. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Exploring virtual worlds for scenario-based repeated team training of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzfeldt, Johan; Hedman, Leif; Medin, Christopher; Heinrichs, Wm LeRoy; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2010-09-03

    Contemporary learning technologies, such as massively multiplayer virtual worlds (MMVW), create new means for teaching and training. However, knowledge about the effectiveness of such training is incomplete, and there are no data regarding how students experience it. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a field within medicine in high demand for new and effective training modalities. In addition to finding a feasible way to implement CPR training, our aim was to investigate how a serious game setting in a virtual world using avatars would influence medical students' subjective experiences as well as their retention of knowledge. An MMVW was refined and used in a study to train 12 medical students in CPR in 3-person teams in a repeated fashion 6 months apart. An exit questionnaire solicited reflections over their experiences. As the subjects trained in 4 CPR scenarios, measurements of self-efficacy, concentration, and mental strain were made in addition to measuring knowledge. Engagement modes and coping strategies were also studied. Parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses were carried out according to distribution of the data. The majority of the subjects reported that they had enjoyed the training, had found it to be suitable, and had learned something new, although several asked for more difficult and complex scenarios as well as a richer virtual environment. The mean values for knowledge dropped during the 6 months from 8.0/10 to 6.25/10 (P = .002). Self-efficacy increased from before to after each of the two training sessions, from 5.9/7 to 6.5/7 (P = .01) after the first and from 6.0/7 to 6.7/7 (P = .03) after the second. The mean perceived concentration value increased from 54.2/100 to 66.6/100 (P = .006), and in general the mental strain was found to be low to moderate (mean = 2.6/10). Using scenario-based virtual world team training with avatars to train medical students in multi-person CPR was feasible and showed promising results. Although we

  4. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-12-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. AI-based (ANN and SVM) statistical downscaling methods for precipitation estimation under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrvand, Masoud; Baghanam, Aida Hosseini; Razzaghzadeh, Zahra; Nourani, Vahid

    2017-04-01

    Since statistical downscaling methods are the most largely used models to study hydrologic impact studies under climate change scenarios, nonlinear regression models known as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been used to spatially downscale the precipitation outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study has been carried out using GCM and station data over GCM grid points located around the Peace-Tampa Bay watershed weather stations. Before downscaling with AI-based model, correlation coefficient values have been computed between a few selected large-scale predictor variables and local scale predictands to select the most effective predictors. The selected predictors are then assessed considering grid location for the site in question. In order to increase AI-based downscaling model accuracy pre-processing has been developed on precipitation time series. In this way, the precipitation data derived from various GCM data analyzed thoroughly to find the highest value of correlation coefficient between GCM-based historical data and station precipitation data. Both GCM and station precipitation time series have been assessed by comparing mean and variances over specific intervals. Results indicated that there is similar trend between GCM and station precipitation data; however station data has non-stationary time series while GCM data does not. Finally AI-based downscaling model have been applied to several GCMs with selected predictors by targeting local precipitation time series as predictand. The consequences of recent step have been used to produce multiple ensembles of downscaled AI-based models.

  6. An FPGA-Based PID Controller Design for Chaos Synchronization by Evolutionary Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Her-Terng Yau

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the design of a field programmable gate arrays- (FPGAs- based digital proportional-integral-derivative (PID controller for synchronization of a continuous chaotic model. By using the evolutionary programming (EP algorithm, optimal control gains in PID-controlled chaotic systems are derived such that a performance index of integrated absolute error (IAE is as minimal as possible. To verify the system performance, basic electronic components, including OPA resistor and capacitor elements, were used to implement the chaotic Sprott circuits, and FPGA technology was used to implement the proposed digital PID controller. Numerical and experimental results confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization procedure.

  7. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-08-08

    this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

  8. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  9. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

  10. Evolutionary patterns of RNA-based duplication in non-mammalian chordates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Chen

    Full Text Available The role of RNA-based duplication, or retroposition, in the evolution of new gene functions in mammals, plants, and Drosophila has been widely reported. However, little is known about RNA-based duplication in non-mammalian chordates. In this study, we screened ten non-mammalian chordate genomes for retrocopies and investigated their evolutionary patterns. We identified numerous retrocopies in these species. Examination of the age distribution of these retrocopies revealed no burst of young retrocopies in ancient chordate species. Upon comparing these non-mammalian chordate species to the mammalian species, we observed that a larger fraction of the non-mammalian retrocopies was under strong evolutionary constraints than mammalian retrocopies are, as evidenced by signals of purifying selection and expression profiles. For the Western clawed frog, Medaka, and Sea squirt, many retrogenes have evolved gonad and brain expression patterns, similar to what was observed in human. Testing of retrogene movement in the Medaka genome, where the nascent sex chrosomes have been well assembled, did not reveal any significant gene movement. Taken together, our analyses demonstrate that RNA-based duplication generates many functional genes and can make a significant contribution to the evolution of non-mammalian genomes.

  11. Introducing Scenario Based Learning interactive to postgraduates in UQ Orthodontic Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naser-ud-Din, S

    2015-08-01

    E-learning has gained momentum in health sciences and seems to have great potential in specialist dental education. Higher acceptability by learners is particularly associated with the surge of smart devices. Currently, there are limited number of e-learning modules available for dental education, particularly in Orthodontics. Scenario Based Learning interactive (SBLi(®)) software was used for the first time in Orthodontics Postgraduate training at the University of Queensland. Nine interactive modules were created embedded with clinical procedure videos, web-links, evidence-based literature, along with opportunity for self-assessment and evaluation. Qualitative data were collected before and after the administration of the SBLi(®) for Orthodontics. The purpose of this data was to investigate learning styles and the acceptance of e-modules as part of postgraduate training. Advantages of the package included high acceptance rate, greater confidence in the application of clinical skills covered in the modules and reduced contact time particularly with limited academic staff. E-modules demonstrated high compatibility with the learning styles of the participants and were considered engaging. It seems apparent that e-learning is most effective in a blended learning environment, supplemented with the traditional classroom approach, rather than as a sole mechanism for postgraduate training. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  13. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  14. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  15. Design Considerations for a Case-Based Reasoning Engine for Scenario-Based Cyber Incident Notification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    28]. There have been various models created to describe the CBR process; however, the most popular one was developed by Aamodt and Plaza [18], as...34 Information Processing and Management, vol. 34, pp. 219-236, 1998. [18] A. Aamodt and E. Plaza, "Case-based reasoning: foundational issues

  16. A Simulation-based, cognitive assessment of resident decision making during complex urinary catheterization scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathwani, Jay N; Law, Katherine E; Witt, Anna K; Ray, R D; DiMarco, S M; Pugh, C M

    2017-04-01

    This study explores general surgery residents' decision making skills in uncommon, complex urinary catheter scenarios. 40 residents were presented with two scenarios. Scenario A was a male with traumatic urethral injury and scenario B was a male with complete urinary blockage. Residents verbalized whether they would catheterize the patient and described the workup and management of suspected pathologies. Residents' decision paths were documented and analyzed. In scenario A, 45% of participants chose to immediately consult Urology. 47.5% named five diagnostic tests to decide if catheterization was safe. In scenario B, 27% chose to catheterize with a 16 French Coude. When faced with catheterization failure, participants randomly upsized or downsized catheters. Chi-square analysis revealed no measurable consensus amongst participants. Residents need more training in complex decision making for urinary catheterization. The decision trees generated in this study provide a useful blueprint of residents' learning needs. Exploration of general surgery residents' decision making skills in uncommon, complex urinary catheter scenarios revealed major deficiencies. The resulting decision trees reveal residents' learning needs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oudshoorn, F.W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals.

  18. Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakkes, J. [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Gaponenko, N. [Analytical Centre on Science and Industrial Policy, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Mnatsakanian, R. [Central European University, Budapest (Hungary)

    2003-07-01

    The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work.

  19. Selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment technology: a scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2012-12-30

    Many technological alternatives for wastewater treatment are available, ranging from advanced technologies to conventional treatment options. It is difficult to select the most appropriate technology from among a set of available alternatives to treat wastewater at a particular location. Many factors, such as capital costs, operation and maintenance costs and land requirement, are involved in the decision-making process. Sustainability criteria must also be incorporated into the decision-making process such that appropriate technologies are selected for developing economies such as that of India. A scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) methodology has been developed and applied to the selection of wastewater treatment alternative. The four most commonly used wastewater treatment technologies for treatment of municipal wastewater in India are ranked for various scenarios. Six scenarios are developed that capture the regional and local societal priorities of urban, suburban and rural areas and translate them into the mathematical algorithm of the MADM methodology. The articulated scenarios depict the most commonly encountered decision-making situations in addressing technology selection for wastewater treatment in India. A widely used compensatory MADM technique, TOPSIS, has been selected to rank the alternatives. Seven criteria with twelve indicators are formulated to evaluate the alternatives. Different weight matrices are used for each scenario, depending on the priorities of the scenario. This study shows that it is difficult to select the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative under the "no scenario" condition (equal weights given to each attribute), and the decision-making methodology presented in this paper effectively identifies the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative for each of the scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Chaotic Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Decomposition for Test Task Scheduling Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Test task scheduling problem (TTSP is a complex optimization problem and has many local optima. In this paper, a hybrid chaotic multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (CMOEA/D is presented to avoid becoming trapped in local optima and to obtain high quality solutions. First, we propose an improving integrated encoding scheme (IES to increase the efficiency. Then ten chaotic maps are applied into the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (MOEA/D in three phases, that is, initial population and crossover and mutation operators. To identify a good approach for hybrid MOEA/D and chaos and indicate the effectiveness of the improving IES several experiments are performed. The Pareto front and the statistical results demonstrate that different chaotic maps in different phases have different effects for solving the TTSP especially the circle map and ICMIC map. The similarity degree of distribution between chaotic maps and the problem is a very essential factor for the application of chaotic maps. In addition, the experiments of comparisons of CMOEA/D and variable neighborhood MOEA/D (VNM indicate that our algorithm has the best performance in solving the TTSP.

  2. Latest Stored Information Based Adaptive Selection Strategy for Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiale Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The adaptive operator selection (AOS and the adaptive parameter control are widely used to enhance the search power in many multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. This paper proposes a novel adaptive selection strategy with bandits for the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (MOEA/D, named latest stored information based adaptive selection (LSIAS. An improved upper confidence bound (UCB method is adopted in the strategy, in which the operator usage rate and abandonment of extreme fitness improvement are introduced to improve the performance of UCB. The strategy uses a sliding window to store recent valuable information about operators, such as factors, probabilities, and efficiency. Four common used DE operators are chosen with the AOS, and two kinds of assist information on operator are selected to improve the operators search power. The operator information is updated with the help of LSIAS and the resulting algorithmic combination is called MOEA/D-LSIAS. Compared to some well-known MOEA/D variants, the LSIAS demonstrates the superior robustness and fast convergence for various multiobjective optimization problems. The comparative experiments also demonstrate improved search power of operators with different assist information on different problems.

  3. Developing Multiple Diverse Potential Designs for Heat Transfer Utilizing Graph Based Evolutionary Algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David J. Muth Jr.

    2006-09-01

    This paper examines the use of graph based evolutionary algorithms (GBEAs) to find multiple acceptable solutions for heat transfer in engineering systems during the optimization process. GBEAs are a type of evolutionary algorithm (EA) in which a topology, or geography, is imposed on an evolving population of solutions. The rates at which solutions can spread within the population are controlled by the choice of topology. As in nature geography can be used to develop and sustain diversity within the solution population. Altering the choice of graph can create a more or less diverse population of potential solutions. The choice of graph can also affect the convergence rate for the EA and the number of mating events required for convergence. The engineering system examined in this paper is a biomass fueled cookstove used in developing nations for household cooking. In this cookstove wood is combusted in a small combustion chamber and the resulting hot gases are utilized to heat the stove’s cooking surface. The spatial temperature profile of the cooking surface is determined by a series of baffles that direct the flow of hot gases. The optimization goal is to find baffle configurations that provide an even temperature distribution on the cooking surface. Often in engineering, the goal of optimization is not to find the single optimum solution but rather to identify a number of good solutions that can be used as a starting point for detailed engineering design. Because of this a key aspect of evolutionary optimization is the diversity of the solutions found. The key conclusion in this paper is that GBEA’s can be used to create multiple good solutions needed to support engineering design.

  4. An Extensible Component-Based Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jan Corfixen; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2017-01-01

    The ability to easily modify the problem definition is currently missing in Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEA). Existing MOEA frameworks do not support dynamic addition and extension of the problem formulation. The existing frameworks require a re-specification of the problem definition...... and recompilation of source code implementing the problem specification. The presented, Controleum framework is based on Dynamic Links and a component-based system to support dynamic reconfiguration of the problem formulation without any need for recompilation of source code. Four different experiments...... with different compositions of objectives from the horticulture domain are formulated based on a state of the art micro-climate simulator, electricity prices and weather forecasts. The experimental results demonstrate that the Controleum framework support dynamic reconfiguration of the problem formulation...

  5. Enhancing electronic health record usability in pediatric patient care: a scenario-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Emily S; Zhang, Jiajie; Abbott, Patricia; Gibbons, Michael C; Lowry, Svetlana Z; Quinn, Matthew T; Ramaiah, Mala; Brick, David

    2013-03-01

    Usability of electronic health records (EHRs) is an important factor affecting patient safety and the EHR adoption rate for both adult and pediatric care providers. A panel of interdisciplinary experts (the authors) was convened by the National Institute of Standards and Technology to generate consensus recommendations to improve EHR usefulness, usability, and patient safety when supporting pediatric care, with a focus on critical user interactions. The panel members represented expertise in the disciplines of human factors engineering (HFE), usability, informatics, and pediatrics in ambulatory care and pediatric intensive care. An iterative, scenario-based approach was used to identify unique considerations in pediatric care and relevant human factors concepts. A draft of the recommendations were reviewed by invited experts in pediatric informatics, emergency medicine, neonatology, pediatrics, HFE, nursing, usability engineering, and software development and implementation. Recommendations for EHR developers, small-group pediatric medical practices, and children's hospitals were identified out of the original 54 recommendations, in terms of nine critical user interaction categories: patient identification, medications, alerts, growth chart, vaccinations, labs, newborn care, privacy, and radiology. Pediatric patient care has unique dimensions, with great complexity and high stakes for adverse events. The recommendations are anticipated to increase the rate of EHR adoption by pediatric care providers and improve patient safety for pediatric patients. The described methodology might be useful for accelerating adoption and increasing safety in a variety of clinical areas where the adoption of EHRs is lagging or usability issues are believed to reduce potential patient safety, efficiency, and quality benefits.

  6. Development of test scenarios for off-roadway crash countermeasures based on crash statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    This report presents the results from an analysis of off-roadway crashes and proposes a set of crash-imminent scenarios to objectively test countermeasure systems for light vehicles (passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks) ba...

  7. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  8. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  9. Infrastructure system restoration planning using evolutionary algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corns, Steven; Long, Suzanna K.; Shoberg, Thomas G.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an evolutionary algorithm to address restoration issues for supply chain interdependent critical infrastructure. Rapid restoration of infrastructure after a large-scale disaster is necessary to sustaining a nation's economy and security, but such long-term restoration has not been investigated as thoroughly as initial rescue and recovery efforts. A model of the Greater Saint Louis Missouri area was created and a disaster scenario simulated. An evolutionary algorithm is used to determine the order in which the bridges should be repaired based on indirect costs. Solutions were evaluated based on the reduction of indirect costs and the restoration of transportation capacity. When compared to a greedy algorithm, the evolutionary algorithm solution reduced indirect costs by approximately 12.4% by restoring automotive travel routes for workers and re-establishing the flow of commodities across the three rivers in the Saint Louis area.

  10. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  11. Towards Behavior Control for Evolutionary Robot Based on RL with ENN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingan Yang

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a behavior-switching control strategy of anevolutionary robotics based on Artificial NeuralNetwork (ANN and Genetic Algorithms (GA. This method is able not only to construct thereinforcement learning models for autonomous robots and evolutionary robot modules thatcontrol behaviors and reinforcement learning environments, and but also to perform thebehavior-switching control and obstacle avoidance of an evolutionary robotics (ER intime-varying environments with static and moving obstacles by combining ANN and GA.The experimental results on thebasic behaviors and behavior-switching control have demonstrated that ourmethod can perform the decision-making strategy and parameters set opimization ofFNN and GA by learning and can escape successfully from the trap of a localminima and avoid \\emph{"motion deadlock" status} of humanoid soccer robotics agents,and reduce the oscillation of the planned trajectory betweenthe multiple obstacles by crossover and mutation. Some results of the proposed algorithmhave been successfully applied to our simulation humanoid robotics soccer team CIT3Dwhich won \\emph{the 1st prize} of RoboCup Championship and ChinaOpen2010 (July 2010 and \\emph{the $2^{nd}$ place}of the official RoboCup World Championship on 5-11 July, 2011 in Istanbul, Turkey.As compared with the conventional behavior network and the adaptive behavior method,the genetic encoding complexity of our algorithm is simplified, and the networkperformance and the {\\em convergence rate $\\rho$} have been greatlyimproved.

  12. Evolutionary multi-objective optimization of colour pixels based on dielectric nanoantennas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiecha, Peter R.; Arbouet, Arnaud; Girard, Christian; Lecestre, Aurélie; Larrieu, Guilhem; Paillard, Vincent

    2017-02-01

    The rational design of photonic nanostructures consists of anticipating their optical response from systematic variations of simple models. This strategy, however, has limited success when multiple objectives are simultaneously targeted, because it requires demanding computational schemes. To this end, evolutionary algorithms can drive the morphology of a nano-object towards an optimum through several cycles of selection, mutation and cross-over, mimicking the process of natural selection. Here, we present a numerical technique that can allow the design of photonic nanostructures with optical properties optimized along several arbitrary objectives. In particular, we combine evolutionary multi-objective algorithms with frequency-domain electrodynamical simulations to optimize the design of colour pixels based on silicon nanostructures that resonate at two user-defined, polarization-dependent wavelengths. The scattering spectra of optimized pixels fabricated by electron-beam lithography show excellent agreement with the targeted objectives. The method is self-adaptive to arbitrary constraints and therefore particularly apt for the design of complex structures within predefined technological limits.

  13. Evolutionary-Hierarchical Bases of the Formation of Cluster Model of Innovation Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuliya Vladimirovna Dubrovskaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The functioning of a modern economic system is based on the interaction of objects of different hierarchical levels. Thus, the problem of the study of innovation processes taking into account the mutual influence of the activities of these economic actors becomes important. The paper dwells evolutionary basis for the formation of models of innovation development on the basis of micro and macroeconomic analysis. Most of the concepts recognized that despite a big number of diverse models, the coordination of the relations between economic agents is of crucial importance for the successful innovation development. According to the results of the evolutionary-hierarchical analysis, the authors reveal key phases of the development of forms of business cooperation, science and government in the domestic economy. It has become the starting point of the conception of the characteristics of the interaction in the cluster models of innovation development of the economy. Considerable expectancies on improvement of the national innovative system are connected with the development of cluster and network structures. The main objective of government authorities is the formation of mechanisms and institutions that will foster cooperation between members of the clusters. The article explains that the clusters cannot become the factors in the growth of the national economy, not being an effective tool for interaction between the actors of the regional innovative systems.

  14. Evolutionary explanations for natural language: criteria from evolutionary biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, W.; de Boer, B.

    2008-01-01

    Theories of the evolutionary origins of language must be informed by empirical and theoretical results from a variety of different fields. Complementing recent surveys of relevant work from linguistics, animal behaviour and genetics, this paper surveys the requirements on evolutionary scenarios that

  15. Research on Preference Polyhedron Model Based Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Method for Multilink Transmission Mechanism Conceptual Design

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    Haihua Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To make the optimal design of the multilink transmission mechanism applied in mechanical press, the intelligent optimization techniques are explored in this paper. A preference polyhedron model and new domination relationships evaluation methodology are proposed for the purpose of reaching balance among kinematic performance, dynamic performance, and other performances of the multilink transmission mechanism during the conceptual design phase. Based on the traditional evaluation index of single target of multicriteria design optimization, the robust metrics of the mechanism system and preference metrics of decision-maker are taken into consideration in this preference polyhedron model and reflected by geometrical characteristic of the model. At last, two optimized multilink transmission mechanisms are designed based on the proposed preference polyhedron model with different evolutionary algorithms, and the result verifies the validity of the proposed optimization method.

  16. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  17. An evolutionary model-based algorithm for accurate phylogenetic breakpoint mapping and subtype prediction in HIV-1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei L Kosakovsky Pond

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1 are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (approximately 5% fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance

  18. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  19. An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

  20. Constructing APT Attack Scenarios Based on Intrusion Kill Chain and Fuzzy Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The APT attack on the Internet is becoming more serious, and most of intrusion detection systems can only generate alarms to some steps of APT attack and cannot identify the pattern of the APT attack. To detect APT attack, many researchers established attack models and then correlated IDS logs with the attack models. However, the accuracy of detection deeply relied on the integrity of models. In this paper, we propose a new method to construct APT attack scenarios by mining IDS security logs. These APT attack scenarios can be further used for the APT detection. First, we classify all the attack events by purpose of phase of the intrusion kill chain. Then we add the attack event dimension to fuzzy clustering, correlate IDS alarm logs with fuzzy clustering, and generate the attack sequence set. Next, we delete the bug attack sequences to clean the set. Finally, we use the nonaftereffect property of probability transfer matrix to construct attack scenarios by mining the attack sequence set. Experiments show that the proposed method can construct the APT attack scenarios by mining IDS alarm logs, and the constructed scenarios match the actual situation so that they can be used for APT attack detection.

  1. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  2. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  3. Scenario-Based Specification and Evaluation of Architectures for Health Monitoring of Aerospace Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, Ravi; Sundaram, P.

    2001-01-01

    HUMS systems have been an area of increased research in the recent times due to two main reasons: (a) increase in the occurrences of accidents in the aerospace, and (b) stricter FAA regulations on aircrafts maintenance [2]. There are several problems associated with the maintenance of aircrafts that the HUMS systems can solve through the use of several monitoring technologies.This paper documents our methodology of employing scenarios in the specification and evaluation of architecture for HUMS. Section 2 investigates related works that use scenarios in software development. Section 3 describes how we use scenarios in our work, which is followed by a demonstration of our methods in the development of KUMS in section 4. Conclusion summarizes results.

  4. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  5. Integrating evolutionary game theory into an agent-based model of ductal carcinoma in situ: Role of gap junctions in cancer progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekian, Negin; Habibi, Jafar; Zangooei, Mohammad Hossein; Aghakhani, Hojjat

    2016-11-01

    There are many cells with various phenotypic behaviors in cancer interacting with each other. For example, an apoptotic cell may induce apoptosis in adjacent cells. A living cell can also protect cells from undergoing apoptosis and necrosis. These survival and death signals are propagated through interaction pathways between adjacent cells called gap junctions. The function of these signals depends on the cellular context of the cell receiving them. For instance, a receiver cell experiencing a low level of oxygen may interpret a received survival signal as an apoptosis signal. In this study, we examine the effect of these signals on tumor growth. We make an evolutionary game theory component in order to model the signal propagation through gap junctions. The game payoffs are defined as a function of cellular context. Then, the game theory component is integrated into an agent-based model of tumor growth. After that, the integrated model is applied to ductal carcinoma in situ, a type of early stage breast cancer. Different scenarios are explored to observe the impact of the gap junction communication and parameters of the game theory component on cancer progression. We compare these scenarios by using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test succeeds in proving a significant difference between the tumor growth of the model before and after considering the gap junction communication. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test also proves that the tumor growth significantly depends on the oxygen threshold of turning survival signals into apoptosis. In this study, the gap junction communication is modeled by using evolutionary game theory to illustrate its role at early stage cancers such as ductal carcinoma in situ. This work indicates that the gap junction communication and the oxygen threshold of turning survival signals into apoptosis can notably affect cancer progression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

    2014-05-01

    Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

  7. Evolutionary Theories of Detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fitch, J P

    2005-04-29

    Current, mid-term and long range technologies for detection of pathogens and toxins are briefly described in the context of performance metrics and operational scenarios. Predictive (evolutionary) and speculative (revolutionary) assessments are given with trade-offs identified, where possible, among competing performance goals.

  8. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

    2017-11-01

    In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

  9. An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drake John M

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to complex dynamical systems that are too cumbersome to analyse. Results Here, we develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example. Conclusions We carry out careful validation of our IBM against comparable mathematical models to demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm and the sound basis for this novel framework. We discuss how this new approach can give critical insights in the study of influenza evolution.

  10. An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Benjamin; Drake, John M; Rohani, Pejman

    2011-03-30

    Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to complex dynamical systems that are too cumbersome to analyse. Here, we develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example. We carry out careful validation of our IBM against comparable mathematical models to demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm and the sound basis for this novel framework. We discuss how this new approach can give critical insights in the study of influenza evolution.

  11. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  12. DNA transposon-based gene vehicles - scenes from an evolutionary drive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skipper, Kristian Alsbjerg; Andersen, Peter Refsing; Sharma, Nynne; Mikkelsen, Jacob Giehm

    2013-12-09

    DNA transposons are primitive genetic elements which have colonized living organisms from plants to bacteria and mammals. Through evolution such parasitic elements have shaped their host genomes by replicating and relocating between chromosomal loci in processes catalyzed by the transposase proteins encoded by the elements themselves. DNA transposable elements are constantly adapting to life in the genome, and self-suppressive regulation as well as defensive host mechanisms may assist in buffering 'cut-and-paste' DNA mobilization until accumulating mutations will eventually restrict events of transposition. With the reconstructed Sleeping Beauty DNA transposon as a powerful engine, a growing list of transposable elements with activity in human cells have moved into biomedical experimentation and preclinical therapy as versatile vehicles for delivery and genomic insertion of transgenes. In this review, we aim to link the mechanisms that drive transposon evolution with the realities and potential challenges we are facing when adapting DNA transposons for gene transfer. We argue that DNA transposon-derived vectors may carry inherent, and potentially limiting, traits of their mother elements. By understanding in detail the evolutionary journey of transposons, from host colonization to element multiplication and inactivation, we may better exploit the potential of distinct transposable elements. Hence, parallel efforts to investigate and develop distinct, but potent, transposon-based vector systems will benefit the broad applications of gene transfer. Insight and clever optimization have shaped new DNA transposon vectors, which recently debuted in the first DNA transposon-based clinical trial. Learning from an evolutionary drive may help us create gene vehicles that are safer, more efficient, and less prone for suppression and inactivation.

  13. DNA transposon-based gene vehicles - scenes from an evolutionary drive

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    DNA transposons are primitive genetic elements which have colonized living organisms from plants to bacteria and mammals. Through evolution such parasitic elements have shaped their host genomes by replicating and relocating between chromosomal loci in processes catalyzed by the transposase proteins encoded by the elements themselves. DNA transposable elements are constantly adapting to life in the genome, and self-suppressive regulation as well as defensive host mechanisms may assist in buffering ‘cut-and-paste’ DNA mobilization until accumulating mutations will eventually restrict events of transposition. With the reconstructed Sleeping Beauty DNA transposon as a powerful engine, a growing list of transposable elements with activity in human cells have moved into biomedical experimentation and preclinical therapy as versatile vehicles for delivery and genomic insertion of transgenes. In this review, we aim to link the mechanisms that drive transposon evolution with the realities and potential challenges we are facing when adapting DNA transposons for gene transfer. We argue that DNA transposon-derived vectors may carry inherent, and potentially limiting, traits of their mother elements. By understanding in detail the evolutionary journey of transposons, from host colonization to element multiplication and inactivation, we may better exploit the potential of distinct transposable elements. Hence, parallel efforts to investigate and develop distinct, but potent, transposon-based vector systems will benefit the broad applications of gene transfer. Insight and clever optimization have shaped new DNA transposon vectors, which recently debuted in the first DNA transposon-based clinical trial. Learning from an evolutionary drive may help us create gene vehicles that are safer, more efficient, and less prone for suppression and inactivation. PMID:24320156

  14. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  15. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as

  16. Exploring land use scenarios, an alternative approach based on actual land use.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, A.; Fresco, L.O.

    1997-01-01

    Land use scenarios should be able to describe land use as a result of changing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, as well as the pathways of possible future developments including feedbacks between land use and its drivers. Several approaches exist, to date, to develop regional and national

  17. Google Earth based visualization of Dutch land use scenarios: beyond usability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Houtkamp, J.M.; Hilferink, M.; Bouwman, A.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution describes GESO, a tool to prepare a Google Earth visualization of the Dutch land use scenarios as created by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. This Google Earth (GE) for the Sustainable Outlook tool, named GESO aims to be an effective, easy and low cost way to study

  18. Evolutionary relationships of Fusobacterium nucleatum based on phylogenetic analysis and comparative genomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moreira David

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The phylogenetic position and evolutionary relationships of Fusobacteria remain uncertain. Especially intriguing is their relatedness to low G+C Gram positive bacteria (Firmicutes by ribosomal molecular phylogenies, but their possession of a typical gram negative outer membrane. Taking advantage of the recent completion of the Fusobacterium nucleatum genome sequence we have examined the evolutionary relationships of Fusobacterium genes by phylogenetic analysis and comparative genomics tools. Results The data indicate that Fusobacterium has a core genome of a very different nature to other bacterial lineages, and branches out at the base of Firmicutes. However, depending on the method used, 35–56% of Fusobacterium genes appear to have a xenologous origin from bacteroidetes, proteobacteria, spirochaetes and the Firmicutes themselves. A high number of hypothetical ORFs with unusual codon usage and short lengths were found and hypothesized to be remnants of transferred genes that were discarded. Some proteins and operons are also hypothesized to be of mixed ancestry. A large portion of the Gram-negative cell wall-related genes seems to have been transferred from proteobacteria. Conclusions Many instances of similarity to other inhabitants of the dental plaque that have been sequenced were found. This suggests that the close physical contact found in this environment might facilitate horizontal gene transfer, supporting the idea of niche-specific gene pools. We hypothesize that at a point in time, probably associated to the rise of mammals, a strong selective pressure might have existed for a cell with a Clostridia-like metabolic apparatus but with the adhesive and immune camouflage features of Proteobacteria.

  19. [The effect of a scenario-based simulation communication course on improving the communication skills of nurses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2014-04-01

    Limited disease knowledge is frequently the cause of disease-related anxiety in myocardial infarction patients. The ability to communicate effectively serves multiple purposes in the professional nursing practice. By communicating effectively with myocardial infarction patients, nurses may help reduce their anxiety by keeping them well informed about their disease and teaching them self-care strategies. This research evaluates the communication skills of nurses following scenario-based simulation education in the context of communication with myocardial infarction patients. This study used an experimental design and an educational intervention. The target population comprised nurses of medicine (clinical qualified level N to N2 for nursing) working at a municipal hospital in Taipei City, Taiwan. A total 122 participants were enrolled. Stratified block randomization divided participants into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group received clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication. The control group received traditional class-based education for communication. Both groups received a pre-test and a Communication Skills Checklist post-test assessment. Results were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 for Windows software. A t-test showed significant increases in communication skills (p communication skills following the education intervention. The results indicate that clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication is significantly more effective than traditional class-based education in enhancing the ability of nurses to communicate effectively with myocardial infarction patients.

  20. Stochastic Multi-Commodity Facility Location Based on a New Scenario Generation Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahootchi, M.; Fattahi, M.; Khakbazan, E.

    2011-11-01

    This paper extends two models for stochastic multi-commodity facility location problem. The problem is formulated as two-stage stochastic programming. As a main point of this study, a new algorithm is applied to efficiently generate scenarios for uncertain correlated customers' demands. This algorithm uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and a scenario reduction approach. The relation between customer satisfaction level and cost are considered in model I. The risk measure using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is embedded into the optimization model II. Here, the structure of the network contains three facility layers including plants, distribution centers, and retailers. The first stage decisions are the number, locations, and the capacity of distribution centers. In the second stage, the decisions are the amount of productions, the volume of transportation between plants and customers.

  1. Scenario-Based Evaluation of Perception of Picture Quality Failures in LCD Televisions

    OpenAIRE

    Keijzers, J.; Scholten, L.; Y. Lu; den Ouden, E.

    2009-01-01

    In innovative Consumer Electronics products, such as LCD televisions, consumers often perceive the product's malfunctioning differently than designers do. To support critical design decisions, it is therefore important to understand how consumers perceive potential product failures. This paper discusses the development of realistic failure scenarios related to the picture quality of an LCD television. The impact of television content as well as failure origin on the perception of ...

  2. PRESERVICE TEACHERS’ PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THEIR PROBLEM SOLVING SKILLS IN THE SCENARIO BASED BLENDED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serap Samsa YETIK

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine how to react everyday lives problems in general. In the study, a pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was used. The study group consisted of 37 students who were registered for Teacher Experience Course of Computer & Instructional Technologies Education in their 8th semester. In order to collect data The Problem Solving Inventory, a 6 point likert scale with 35 items was used. The scale was completed by the participants both at the beginning and at the end of the 8th semester. In the study as an online learning environment, MODDLE which is a learning management system was used. At the beginning of the semester students who would go to the public primary institutions once a week were randomly assigned to one of the five schools. In the study, participants were given scenarios once a week, totally 8 scenarios and wanted to generate solutions for these problems. Scenarios and solutions were discussed at the face to face courses, semiweekly and gave feedback to them about their solutions by the researchers. At last week, the period of Teaching Practice and generated solutions according to presented problems were assessed, and participants were wanted to respond the scale again. Descriptive statistics and t-test statistical technique were used to analysis of data. The result of the study indicated that there is a significant difference in favour of average points of posttest.

  3. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  4. Wavelet-based evolutionary response of multi-span structures including wave-passage and site-response effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dinh, V.N.; Basu, B.; Brinkgreve, R.B.J.

    2013-01-01

    Stochastic seismic wavelet-based evolutionary response of multispan structures including wave-passage and site-response effects is formulated in this paper. A procedure to estimate site-compatible parameters of surface-to-bedrock frequency response function (FRF) by using finite-element analysis of

  5. Optimal Management Of Renewable-Based Mgs An Intelligent Approach Through The Evolutionary Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Nafar

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract- This article proposes a probabilistic frame built on Scenario fabrication to considerate the uncertainties in the finest action managing of Micro Grids MGs. The MG contains different recoverable energy resources such as Wind Turbine WT Micro Turbine MT Photovoltaic PV Fuel Cell FC and one battery as the storing device. The advised frame is based on scenario generation and Roulette wheel mechanism to produce different circumstances for handling the uncertainties of altered factors. It habits typical spreading role as a probability scattering function of random factors. The uncertainties which are measured in this paper are grid bid alterations cargo request calculating error and PV and WT yield power productions. It is well-intentioned to asset that solving the MG difficult for 24 hours of a day by considering diverse uncertainties and different constraints needs one powerful optimization method that can converge fast when it doesnt fall in local optimal topic. Simultaneously single Group Search Optimization GSO system is presented to vision the total search space globally. The GSO algorithm is instigated from group active of beasts. Also the GSO procedure one change is similarly planned for this algorithm. The planned context and way is applied o one test grid-connected MG as a typical grid.

  6. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

    2016-05-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

  7. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard

    2010-01-01

    engine specifications, and fish and fuel prices. The outcomes of scenarios A and B indicate a trade-off between fuel savings and energy efficiency improvements when effort is displaced closer to the harbour compared to reductions in total landing amounts and profit. Scenario C indicates that historic......Global concerns about CO2 emissions, national CO2 quotas, and rising fuel prices are incentives for the commercial fishing fleet industry to change their fishing practices and reduce fuel consumption, which constitutes a significant part of fishing costs. Vessel-based fuel consumption, energy...... efficiency (quantity of fish caught per litre of fuel used), and profitability are factors that we simulated in developing a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) for fishing vessel movements. The observed spatial and seasonal patterns of fishing effort for each fishing activity are evaluated...

  8. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  9. An Evolutionary Algorithm of the Regional Collaborative Innovation Based on Complex Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposed a new perspective to study the evolution of regional collaborative innovation based on complex network theory. The two main conceptions of evolution, “graph with dynamic features” and “network evolution,” have been provided in advance. Afterwards, we illustrate the overall architecture and capability model of the regional collaborative innovation system, which contains several elements and participants. Therefore, we can definitely assume that the regional collaborative innovation system could be regarded as a complex network model. In the proposed evolutionary algorithm, we consider that each node in the network could only connect to less than a certain amount of neighbors, and the extreme value is determined by its importance. Through the derivation, we have created a probability density function as the most important constraint and supporting condition of our simulation experiments. Then, a case study was performed to explore the network topology and validate the effectiveness of our algorithm. All the raw datasets were obtained from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistic of China and some other open sources. Finally, some meaningful recommendations were presented to policy makers, especially based on the experimental results and some common conclusions of complex networks.

  10. Decomposition-Based Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm for Community Detection in Dynamic Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Community structure is one of the most important properties in social networks. In dynamic networks, there are two conflicting criteria that need to be considered. One is the snapshot quality, which evaluates the quality of the community partitions at the current time step. The other is the temporal cost, which evaluates the difference between communities at different time steps. In this paper, we propose a decomposition-based multiobjective community detection algorithm to simultaneously optimize these two objectives to reveal community structure and its evolution in dynamic networks. It employs the framework of multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition to simultaneously optimize the modularity and normalized mutual information, which quantitatively measure the quality of the community partitions and temporal cost, respectively. A local search strategy dealing with the problem-specific knowledge is incorporated to improve the effectiveness of the new algorithm. Experiments on computer-generated and real-world networks demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can not only find community structure and capture community evolution more accurately, but also be steadier than the two compared algorithms.

  11. An Improved Multiobjective Optimization Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Decomposition for Complex Pareto Fronts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Shouyong; Yang, Shengxiang

    2016-02-01

    The multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (MOEA/D) has been shown to be very efficient in solving multiobjective optimization problems (MOPs). In practice, the Pareto-optimal front (POF) of many MOPs has complex characteristics. For example, the POF may have a long tail and sharp peak and disconnected regions, which significantly degrades the performance of MOEA/D. This paper proposes an improved MOEA/D for handling such kind of complex problems. In the proposed algorithm, a two-phase strategy (TP) is employed to divide the whole optimization procedure into two phases. Based on the crowdedness of solutions found in the first phase, the algorithm decides whether or not to delicate computational resources to handle unsolved subproblems in the second phase. Besides, a new niche scheme is introduced into the improved MOEA/D to guide the selection of mating parents to avoid producing duplicate solutions, which is very helpful for maintaining the population diversity when the POF of the MOP being optimized is discontinuous. The performance of the proposed algorithm is investigated on some existing benchmark and newly designed MOPs with complex POF shapes in comparison with several MOEA/D variants and other approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm produces promising performance on these complex problems.

  12. A heuristic ranking approach on capacity benefit margin determination using Pareto-based evolutionary programming technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Muhammad Murtadha; Abd Rahman, Nurulazmi; Musirin, Ismail; Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mahmud; Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel multiobjective approach for capacity benefit margin (CBM) assessment taking into account tie-line reliability of interconnected systems. CBM is the imperative information utilized as a reference by the load-serving entities (LSE) to estimate a certain margin of transfer capability so that a reliable access to generation through interconnected system could be attained. A new Pareto-based evolutionary programming (EP) technique is used to perform a simultaneous determination of CBM for all areas of the interconnected system. The selection of CBM at the Pareto optimal front is proposed to be performed by referring to a heuristic ranking index that takes into account system loss of load expectation (LOLE) in various conditions. Eventually, the power transfer based available transfer capability (ATC) is determined by considering the firm and nonfirm transfers of CBM. A comprehensive set of numerical studies are conducted on the modified IEEE-RTS79 and the performance of the proposed method is numerically investigated in detail. The main advantage of the proposed technique is in terms of flexibility offered to an independent system operator in selecting an appropriate solution of CBM simultaneously for all areas.

  13. Sequence-based antigenic change prediction by a sparse learning method incorporating co-evolutionary information.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jialiang Yang

    Full Text Available Rapid identification of influenza antigenic variants will be critical in selecting optimal vaccine candidates and thus a key to developing an effective vaccination program. Recent studies suggest that multiple simultaneous mutations at antigenic sites accumulatively enhance antigenic drift of influenza A viruses. However, pre-existing methods on antigenic variant identification are based on analyses from individual sites. Because the impacts of these co-evolved sites on influenza antigenicity may not be additive, it will be critical to quantify the impact of not only those single mutations but also multiple simultaneous mutations or co-evolved sites. Here, we developed and applied a computational method, AntigenCO, to identify and quantify both single and co-evolutionary sites driving the historical antigenic drifts. AntigenCO achieved an accuracy of up to 90.05% for antigenic variant prediction, significantly outperforming methods based on single sites. AntigenCO can be useful in antigenic variant identification in influenza surveillance.

  14. Unsupervised Primary Object Discovery in Videos Based on Evolutionary Primary Object Modeling With Reliable Object Proposals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Yeong Jun; Kim, Chang-Su

    2017-11-01

    A novel primary object discovery (POD) algorithm, which uses reliable object proposals while exploiting the recurrence property of a primary object in a video sequence, is proposed in this paper. First, we generate both color-based and motion-based object proposals in each frame, and extract the feature of each proposal using the random walk with restart simulation. Next, we estimate the foreground confidence for each proposal to remove unreliable proposals. By superposing the features of the remaining reliable proposals, we construct the primary object models. To this end, we develop the evolutionary primary object modeling technique, which exploits the recurrence property of the primary object. Then, using the primary object models, we choose the main proposal in each frame and find the location of the primary object by merging the main proposal with candidate proposals selectively. Finally, we refine the discovered bounding boxes by exploiting temporal correlations of the recurring primary object. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed POD algorithm significantly outperforms conventional algorithms.

  15. Predicting subcontractor performance using web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chien-Ho

    2013-01-01

    Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs) to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Fuzzy Logic (FL), and Neural Networks (NNs). FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

  16. Predicting Subcontractor Performance Using Web-Based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Ho Ko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs, Fuzzy Logic (FL, and Neural Networks (NNs. FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

  17. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

  18. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest......In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination...

  19. Scenario-based multi-zone approach of wind power for steady-state network studies

    OpenAIRE

    SCHÜLKE, ARNAUD

    2015-01-01

    The installed wind power capacity has increased rapidly over the last decades and wind power now has a strong impact on the European electric system. The development of wind power is expected to continue in the coming decades and it is therefore crucial to correctly take it into account in network simulations of the future system. Metrix is a model used at EDF R&D for technical and economical simulations of the European electric system. It uses a multi-scenario approach that aims at calcu...

  20. A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

  1. A Multi Agent System for Flow-Based Intrusion Detection Using Reputation and Evolutionary Computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    xiii I. Introduction ...47 MCDM multiple criteria decision making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 MOEA Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithm...COMPUTATION I. Introduction Surveying the modern digital expanse of the computer network for entities nefar- ious and profane is the work of an Intrusion

  2. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  3. Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

  4. [Study on evolutionary origin of influenza A virus (H1N1) based on HA gene].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi-Han; Ju, Li-Wen; Jiang, Lu-Fang; Yang, Ji-Xing; Shi, Qiang; Jiang, Qing-Wu

    2009-07-01

    To determine the evolutionary rate and divergence time of influenza A virus HA gene isolated recently worldwide pandemic and explore the origin and its transmission. A total of 344 H1 sequences available in the GenBank (including 248 isolated from human, 84 from swine, 11 from avian, and 1 from ferret) and 7 isolated in Shanghai were collected. The nucleotide substitution rate and time to most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) was calculated using molecular clock theory and Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) based on Markov chain Monte Carlo. Then genetic phylogeny was constructed referring to posterior distribution. It was found that H1 sequences in the US from human, swine and avian were clustered significantly with swine H1 ones from Asia phylogenetically (Cluster US). The second cluster (Cluster Eurasian Human) nearly consisted of human H1 sequences isolated in other regions. The third cluster (Cluster Eurasian Animal) consisted of swine and avian H1 sequences from China and Italy respectively. As for all the H1 sequences, the evolutionary rate was of 2.57 x 10(-3) substitutions/site per year averagely (95% Highest Posterior Density: 1.96 x 10(-3) - 3.03 x 10(-3)/site per year). The estimated dates for tMRCA of human H1 in Europe and swine H1 in the mainland of China were the earliest, with the corresponding rates of 6.46 x 10(-3)/site per year and 0.97 x 10(-3)/site per year respectively. The tMRCAs of human and swine H1 sequences from the US were similar, with the rates of 5.86 x 10(-3)/site per year and 5.02 x 10(-3)/site per year. The present flu outbreak was possibly induced by long-term circulation of influenza A virus (H1N1) in human population and swine herds in America. There was no evidence proving that influenza virus in China involved in the present outbreak.

  5. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Cifelli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

  6. An evolutionary strategy based on partial imitation for solving optimization problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javarone, Marco Alberto

    2016-12-01

    In this work we introduce an evolutionary strategy to solve combinatorial optimization tasks, i.e. problems characterized by a discrete search space. In particular, we focus on the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), i.e. a famous problem whose search space grows exponentially, increasing the number of cities, up to becoming NP-hard. The solutions of the TSP can be codified by arrays of cities, and can be evaluated by fitness, computed according to a cost function (e.g. the length of a path). Our method is based on the evolution of an agent population by means of an imitative mechanism, we define 'partial imitation'. In particular, agents receive a random solution and then, interacting among themselves, may imitate the solutions of agents with a higher fitness. Since the imitation mechanism is only partial, agents copy only one entry (randomly chosen) of another array (i.e. solution). In doing so, the population converges towards a shared solution, behaving like a spin system undergoing a cooling process, i.e. driven towards an ordered phase. We highlight that the adopted 'partial imitation' mechanism allows the population to generate solutions over time, before reaching the final equilibrium. Results of numerical simulations show that our method is able to find, in a finite time, both optimal and suboptimal solutions, depending on the size of the considered search space.

  7. Optimal design of a spherical parallel manipulator based on kinetostatic performance using evolutionary techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daneshmand, Morteza [University of Tartu, Tartu (Estonia); Saadatzi, Mohammad Hossein [Colorado School of Mines, Golden (United States); Kaloorazi, Mohammad Hadi [École de Technologie Supérieur, Montréal (Canada); Masouleh, Mehdi Tale [University of Tehran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Anbarjafari, Gholamreza [Hasan Kalyoncu University, Gaziantep (Turkmenistan)

    2016-03-15

    This study aims to provide an optimal design for a Spherical parallel manipulator (SPM), namely, the Agile Eye. This aim is approached by investigating kinetostatic performance and workspace and searching for the most promising design. Previously recommended designs are examined to determine whether they provide acceptable kinetostatic performance and workspace. Optimal designs are provided according to different kinetostatic performance indices, especially kinematic sensitivity. The optimization process is launched based on the concept of the genetic algorithm. A single-objective process is implemented in accordance with the guidelines of an evolutionary algorithm called differential evolution. A multi-objective procedure is then provided following the reasoning of the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. This process results in several sets of Pareto points for reconciliation between kinetostatic performance indices and workspace. The concept of numerous kinetostatic performance indices and the results of optimization algorithms are elaborated. The conclusions provide hints on the provided set of designs and their credibility to provide a well-conditioned workspace and acceptable kinetostatic performance for the SPM under study, which can be well extended to other types of SPMs.

  8. Modifying Regeneration Mutation and Hybridising Clonal Selection for Evolutionary Algorithms Based Timetabling Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thatchai Thepphakorn

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the development of a new evolutionary algorithms based timetabling (EAT tool for solving course scheduling problems that include a genetic algorithm (GA and a memetic algorithm (MA. Reproduction processes may generate infeasible solutions. Previous research has used repair processes that have been applied after a population of chromosomes has been generated. This research developed a new approach which (i modified the genetic operators to prevent the creation of infeasible solutions before chromosomes were added to the population; (ii included the clonal selection algorithm (CSA; and the elitist strategy (ES to improve the quality of the solutions produced. This approach was adopted by both the GA and MA within the EAT. The MA was further modified to include hill climbing local search. The EAT program was tested using 14 benchmark timetabling problems from the literature using a sequential experimental design, which included a fractional factorial screening experiment. Experiments were conducted to (i test the performance of the proposed modified algorithms; (ii identify which factors and interactions were statistically significant; (iii identify appropriate parameters for the GA and MA; and (iv compare the performance of the various hybrid algorithms. The genetic algorithm with modified genetic operators produced an average improvement of over 50%.

  9. Comparative and Evolutionary Analyses of Meloidogyne spp. Based on Mitochondrial Genome Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Laura Evangelina; Sánchez-Puerta, M. Virginia

    2015-01-01

    Molecular taxonomy and evolution of nematodes have been recently the focus of several studies. Mitochondrial sequences were proposed as an alternative for precise identification of Meloidogyne species, to study intraspecific variability and to follow maternal lineages. We characterized the mitochondrial genomes (mtDNAs) of the root knot nematodes M. floridensis, M. hapla and M. incognita. These were AT rich (81–83%) and highly compact, encoding 12 proteins, 2 rRNAs, and 22 tRNAs. Comparisons with published mtDNAs of M. chitwoodi, M. incognita (another strain) and M. graminicola revealed that they share protein and rRNA gene order but differ in the order of tRNAs. The mtDNAs of M. floridensis and M. incognita were strikingly similar (97–100% identity for all coding regions). In contrast, M. floridensis, M. chitwoodi, M. hapla and M. graminicola showed 65–84% nucleotide identity for coding regions. Variable mitochondrial sequences are potentially useful for evolutionary and taxonomic studies. We developed a molecular taxonomic marker by sequencing a highly-variable ~2 kb mitochondrial region, nad5-cox1, from 36 populations of root-knot nematodes to elucidate relationships within the genus Meloidogyne. Isolates of five species formed monophyletic groups and showed little intraspecific variability. We also present a thorough analysis of the mitochondrial region cox2-rrnS. Phylogenies based on either mitochondrial region had good discrimination power but could not discriminate between M. arenaria, M. incognita and M. floridensis. PMID:25799071

  10. Towards an evolutionary theory of the origin of life based on kinetics and thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascal, Robert; Pross, Addy; Sutherland, John D

    2013-11-06

    A sudden transition in a system from an inanimate state to the living state-defined on the basis of present day living organisms-would constitute a highly unlikely event hardly predictable from physical laws. From this uncontroversial idea, a self-consistent representation of the origin of life process is built up, which is based on the possibility of a series of intermediate stages. This approach requires a particular kind of stability for these stages-dynamic kinetic stability (DKS)-which is not usually observed in regular chemistry, and which is reflected in the persistence of entities capable of self-reproduction. The necessary connection of this kinetic behaviour with far-from-equilibrium thermodynamic conditions is emphasized and this leads to an evolutionary view for the origin of life in which multiplying entities must be associated with the dissipation of free energy. Any kind of entity involved in this process has to pay the energetic cost of irreversibility, but, by doing so, the contingent emergence of new functions is made feasible. The consequences of these views on the studies of processes by which life can emerge are inferred.

  11. Evolutionary, neurobiological, gene-based solution of the ideological "puzzle" of human altruism and cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baschetti, Riccardo

    2007-01-01

    Despite hundreds of published articles about humankind's eusocial behaviours, most scholars still regard the origin of human altruism and cooperation as an enduring puzzle, because it seems incompatible with two central tenets of evolution, namely, the competition between individuals and the consequent selective advantages of selfish traits. This "puzzle", however, rather than being due to insurmountable scientific difficulties, is to be attributed to two powerful ideologies, which are politically opposite, but nevertheless concurred to prevent scholars from solving it. One ideology rejects the concept of genetic determinism, whereas the other dislikes the concept of group selection. As a consequence, these widespread ideologies, which are common in the scientific community, too, kept scholars from realising that the puzzle of human altruism and cooperation can only be solved by proposing a theoretical model that is based precisely on both genetic determinism and group selection. This model, which was never advanced in published papers, is presented here. This article also proposes to regard ancestral environments as determinants of human eusociality. By contrast, virtually all previous articles about it leave primitive habitats unmentioned. To support the hypothesis that human unselfish behaviours represent genetically conserved traits that evolved ancestrally, not products of cultural transmission, this paper also discusses six groups of arguments in the section "Genes versus culture". Finally, this article advances a purely genetic evolutionary explanation for the uniqueness of human eusociality, thereby challenging prevailing cultural explanations for the incomparably developed levels of cooperation in humankind, which are observed in no other social species.

  12. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  13. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  14. Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

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    Jed O. Kaplan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1 in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS. Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

  15. Empirical tests of natural selection-based evolutionary accounts of ADHD: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thagaard, Marthe S; Faraone, Stephen V; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J; Østergaard, Søren D

    2016-10-01

    ADHD is a prevalent and highly heritable mental disorder associated with significant impairment, morbidity and increased rates of mortality. This combination of high prevalence and high morbidity/mortality seen in ADHD and other mental disorders presents a challenge to natural selection-based models of human evolution. Several hypotheses have been proposed in an attempt to resolve this apparent paradox. The aim of this study was to review the evidence for these hypotheses. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on empirical investigations of natural selection-based evolutionary accounts for ADHD in adherence with the PRISMA guideline. The PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO databases were screened for relevant publications, by combining search terms covering evolution/selection with search terms covering ADHD. The search identified 790 records. Of these, 15 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, and three were included in the review. Two of these reported on the evolution of the seven-repeat allele of the ADHD-associated dopamine receptor D4 gene, and one reported on the results of a simulation study of the effect of suggested ADHD-traits on group survival. The authors of the three studies interpreted their findings as favouring the notion that ADHD-traits may have been associated with increased fitness during human evolution. However, we argue that none of the three studies really tap into the core symptoms of ADHD, and that their conclusions therefore lack validity for the disorder. This review indicates that the natural selection-based accounts of ADHD have not been subjected to empirical test and therefore remain hypothetical.

  16. A Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Structural and Attribute Similarities for Community Detection in Attributed Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhangtao; Liu, Jing; Wu, Kai

    2017-08-16

    Most of the existing community detection algorithms are based on vertex connectivity. While in many real networks, each vertex usually has one or more attributes describing its properties which are often homogeneous in a cluster. Such networks can be modeled as attributed graphs, whose attributes sometimes are equally important to topological structure in graph clustering. One important challenge is to detect communities considering both topological structure and vertex properties simultaneously. To this propose, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on structural and attribute similarities (MOEA-SA) is first proposed to solve the attributed graph clustering problems in this paper. In MOEA-SA, a new objective named as attribute similarity SA is proposed and another objective employed is the modularity Q. A hybrid representation is used and a neighborhood correction strategy is designed to repair the wrongly assigned genes through making balance between structural and attribute information. Moreover, an effective multi-individual-based mutation operator is designed to guide the evolution toward the good direction. The performance of MOEA-SA is validated on several real Facebook attributed graphs and several ego-networks with multiattribute. Two measurements, namely density T and entropy E, are used to evaluate the quality of communities obtained. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of MOEA-SA and the systematic comparisons with existing methods show that MOEA-SA can get better values of T and E in each graph and find more relevant communities with practical meanings. Knee points corresponding to the best compromise solutions are calculated to guide decision makers to make convenient choices.

  17. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  18. Correlation analysis for protein evolutionary family based on amino acid position mutations and application in PDZ domain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Shi Du

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: It has been widely recognized that the mutations at specific directions are caused by the functional constraints in protein family and the directional mutations at certain positions control the evolutionary direction of the protein family. The mutations at different positions, even distantly separated, are mutually coupled and form an evolutionary network. Finding the controlling mutative positions and the mutative network among residues are firstly important for protein rational design and enzyme engineering. METHODOLOGY: A computational approach, namely amino acid position conservation-mutation correlation analysis (CMCA, is developed to predict mutually mutative positions and find the evolutionary network in protein family. The amino acid position mutative function, which is the foundational equation of CMCA measuring the mutation of a residue at a position, is derived from the MSA (multiple structure alignment database of protein evolutionary family. Then the position conservation correlation matrix and position mutation correlation matrix is constructed from the amino acid position mutative equation. Unlike traditional SCA (statistical coupling analysis approach, which is based on the statistical analysis of position conservations, the CMCA focuses on the correlation analysis of position mutations. CONCLUSIONS: As an example the CMCA approach is used to study the PDZ domain of protein family, and the results well illustrate the distantly allosteric mechanism in PDZ protein family, and find the functional mutative network among residues. We expect that the CMCA approach may find applications in protein engineering study, and suggest new strategy to improve bioactivities and physicochemical properties of enzymes.

  19. Using Mind Maps to Make Student Questioning Effective: Learning Outcomes of a Principle-Based Scenario for Teacher Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2018-01-01

    Student questioning is an important learning strategy, but rare in many classrooms, because teachers have concerns if these questions contribute to attaining curricular objectives. Teachers face the challenge of making student questioning effective for learning the curriculum. To address this challenge, a principle-based scenario for guiding effective student questioning was developed and tested for its relevance and practicality in two previous studies. In the scenario, which consists of a sequence of pedagogical activities, mind maps support teachers and students to explore and elaborate upon a core curriculum, by raising, investigating, and exchanging student questions. In this paper, a follow-up study is presented that tested the effectiveness of the scenario on student outcomes in terms of attainment of curricular objectives. Ten teachers and their 231 students participated in the study. Pre- and posttest mind maps were used to measure individual and collective learning outcomes of student questioning. Findings show that a majority of students progressed in learning the core curriculum and elaborated upon it. The findings suggest that visualizing knowledge construction in a shared mind map supports students to learn a core curriculum and to refine their knowledge structures.

  20. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Han River Long Term Runoff in South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Jin Hong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2007 World Economic Forum (WEF referred to climate change as the overriding problem we face. Concerns have been raised about how global warming would accelerate future climate change and its consequences. Many climate change studies expect the possible occurrence of extreme high temperature, increase in heavy rains and strong typhoons in the near future. Currently, climate change scenarios are used to prepare an appropriate plan for these phenomena under climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest and evaluate an operational method of assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources at the regional scale. Future runoff was simulated using high resolution Regional Circulation Model (RCM (12.5 × 12.5 km Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenario operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA and a semi-distribution model or SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process. The study was carried out on the Han River including its nine dams. The study found that runoff characteristics, especially annual distribution, could change. The discharge in July tends to decrease while runoff can increase in August and September. The flow duration curve was estimated and compared with observed data and simulated daily runoff data for Paldang-dam to evaluate the effect of climate change. The analysis of the flow duration curve shows that the mean average low flow increased while the average wet and normal flow decreased under the climate change scenario.

  1. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  2. Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

  3. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  4. A study of driver's route choice behavior based on evolutionary game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaowei; Ji, Yanjie; Du, Muqing; Deng, Wei

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers' route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver's route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver's route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

  5. Remembering the evolutionary Freud.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Allan

    2006-03-01

    Throughout his career as a writer, Sigmund Freud maintained an interest in the evolutionary origins of the human mind and its neurotic and psychotic disorders. In common with many writers then and now, he believed that the evolutionary past is conserved in the mind and the brain. Today the "evolutionary Freud" is nearly forgotten. Even among Freudians, he is regarded to be a red herring, relevant only to the extent that he diverts attention from the enduring achievements of the authentic Freud. There are three ways to explain these attitudes. First, the evolutionary Freud's key work is the "Overview of the Transference Neurosis" (1915). But it was published at an inopportune moment, forty years after the author's death, during the so-called "Freud wars." Second, Freud eventually lost interest in the "Overview" and the prospect of a comprehensive evolutionary theory of psychopathology. The publication of The Ego and the Id (1923), introducing Freud's structural theory of the psyche, marked the point of no return. Finally, Freud's evolutionary theory is simply not credible. It is based on just-so stories and a thoroughly discredited evolutionary mechanism, Lamarckian use-inheritance. Explanations one and two are probably correct but also uninteresting. Explanation number three assumes that there is a fundamental difference between Freud's evolutionary narratives (not credible) and the evolutionary accounts of psychopathology that currently circulate in psychiatry and mainstream journals (credible). The assumption is mistaken but worth investigating.

  6. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  7. A Smartphone Camera-Based Indoor Positioning Algorithm of Crowded Scenarios with the Assistance of Deep CNN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Jichao; Li, Fei; Deng, Zhongliang; Ma, Wenjing

    2017-03-28

    Considering the installation cost and coverage, the received signal strength indicator (RSSI)-based indoor positioning system is widely used across the world. However, the indoor positioning performance, due to the interference of wireless signals that are caused by the complex indoor environment that includes a crowded population, cannot achieve the demands of indoor location-based services. In this paper, we focus on increasing the signal strength estimation accuracy considering the population density, which is different to the other RSSI-based indoor positioning methods. Therefore, we propose a new wireless signal compensation model considering the population density, distance, and frequency. First of all, the number of individuals in an indoor crowded scenario can be calculated by our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based human detection approach. Then, the relationship between the population density and the signal attenuation is described in our model. Finally, we use the trilateral positioning principle to realize the pedestrian location. According to the simulation and tests in the crowded scenarios, the proposed model increases the accuracy of the signal strength estimation by 1.53 times compared to that without considering the human body. Therefore, the localization accuracy is less than 1.37 m, which indicates that our algorithm can improve the indoor positioning performance and is superior to other RSSI models.

  8. Fixation Probabilities of Evolutionary Graphs Based on the Positions of New Appearing Mutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-ai Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary graph theory is a nice measure to implement evolutionary dynamics on spatial structures of populations. To calculate the fixation probability is usually regarded as a Markov chain process, which is affected by the number of the individuals, the fitness of the mutant, the game strategy, and the structure of the population. However the position of the new mutant is important to its fixation probability. Here the position of the new mutant is laid emphasis on. The method is put forward to calculate the fixation probability of an evolutionary graph (EG of single level. Then for a class of bilevel EGs, their fixation probabilities are calculated and some propositions are discussed. The conclusion is obtained showing that the bilevel EG is more stable than the corresponding one-rooted EG.

  9. THE PROPOSAL OF A EVOLUTIONARY STRATEGY GENERATING THE DATA STRUCTURES BASED ON A HORIZONTAL TREE FOR THE TESTS

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    Marek ŻUKOWICZ

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to present a mathematical definition of the object model, that is known in computer science as TreeList and to show application of this model for design evolutionary algorithm, that purpose is to generate structures based on this object. The first chapter introduces the reader to the problem of presenting data using the TreeList object. The second chapter describes the problem of testing data structures based on TreeList. The third one shows a mathematical model of the object TreeList and the parameters, used in determining the utility of structures created through this model and in evolutionary strategy, that generates these structures for testing purposes. The last chapter provides a brief summary and plans for future research related to the algorithm presented in the article.

  10. Individuals and populations: the role of long-term, individual-based studies of animals in ecology and evolutionary biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clutton-Brock, Tim; Sheldon, Ben C

    2010-10-01

    Many important questions in ecology and evolutionary biology can only be answered with data that extend over several decades and answering a substantial proportion of questions requires records of the life histories of recognisable individuals. We identify six advantages that long-term, individual based studies afford in ecology and evolution: (i) analysis of age structure; (ii) linkage between life history stages; (iii) quantification of social structure; (iv) derivation of lifetime fitness measures; (v) replication of estimates of selection; (vi) linkage between generations, and we review their impact on studies in six key areas of evolution and ecology. Our review emphasises the unusual opportunities and productivity of long-term, individual-based studies and documents the important role that they play in research on ecology and evolutionary biology as well as the difficulties they face. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In Hyuck Hwang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is because the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manually by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was suggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  12. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  13. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

  14. The multiscale importance of road segments in a network disruption scenario: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freiria, Susana; Tavares, Alexandre O; Pedro Julião, Rui

    2015-03-01

    This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real-world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, In Hyuck; Kim, Youngmin; Lee, Dong Kun; Shin, Jong Gye

    2014-03-01

    Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate) that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  16. Scenario Centered Curriculum Assessment Based on the Technological Profile of the Student

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David FONSECA ESCUDERO

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the results and the degree of student satisfaction obtained in the usability testing of the Scenario Centered Curriculum (SCC method, with a specific focus on the technological profile of each group of students. The method was incorporated into a Digital Marketing course which was taught in three Vocation Training Schools in Spain, Italy and France. The schools involved, together with seven other members, form part of a consortium created to promote the development of the Learning4Work Project (L4W, as part of the Erasmus+ program of the European Community. The aim of this project is to verify whether the active learning metidos applied to Vocational Training environments improve student motivation and performance and bring about significant improvement in the workplace. The preliminary results obtained indicate a need to adapt the contents to the specific professional area of each school in order to improve the results, as it appears that without a contextualization phase, students do not fully appreciate the potential advantages of the method.

  17. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø. Hodnebrog

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B, and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE, presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000. Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario.

    As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000.

    Radiative forcing (RF calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of −0.44 ± 13 mW m−2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 9.3 (B1 or −32 ± 18 mW m−2 (A1B in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −19 ± 5.3 mW m−2 in 2000 to

  19. Partial Ambiguity Resolution for Ground and Space-Based Applications in a GPS+Galileo scenario: A simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardo, A.; Li, B.; Teunissen, P. J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Integer Ambiguity Resolution (IAR) is the key to fast and precise GNSS positioning. The proper diagnostic metric for successful IAR is provided by the ambiguity success rate being the probability of correct integer estimation. In this contribution we analyse the performance of different GPS+Galileo models in terms of number of epochs needed to reach a pre-determined success rate, for various ground and space-based applications. The simulation-based controlled model environment enables us to gain insight into the factors contributing to the ambiguity resolution strength of the different GPS+Galileo models. Different scenarios of modernized GPS+Galileo are studied, encompassing the long baseline ground case as well as the medium dynamics case (airplane) and the space-based Low Earth Orbiter (LEO) case. In our analyses of these models the capabilities of partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) are demonstrated and compared to the limitations of full ambiguity resolution (FAR). The results show that PAR is generally a more efficient way than FAR to reduce the time needed to achieve centimetre-level positioning precision. For long single baselines, PAR can achieve time reductions of fifty percent to achieve such precision levels, while for multiple baselines it even becomes more effective, reaching reductions up to eighty percent for four station networks. For a LEO, the rapidly changing observation geometry does not even allow FAR, while PAR is then still possible for both dual- and triple-frequency scenarios. With the triple-frequency GPS+Galileo model the availability of precise positioning improves by fifteen percent with respect to the dual-frequency scenario.

  20. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Oteros-Rozas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  1. Probing the Structure of Kepler ZZ Ceti Stars with Full Evolutionary Models-based Asteroseismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Alejandra D.; Córsico, A. H.; Castanheira, B. G.; De Gerónimo, F. C.; Kepler, S. O.; Koester, D.; Kawka, A.; Althaus, L. G.; Hermes, J. J.; Bonato, C.; Gianninas, A.

    2017-12-01

    We present an asteroseismological analysis of four ZZ Ceti stars observed with the Kepler spacecraft: GD 1212, SDSS J113655.17+040952.6, KIC 11911480, and KIC 4552982, based on a grid of full evolutionary models of DA white dwarf (WD) stars. We employ a grid of carbon–oxygen core models, characterized by a detailed and consistent chemical inner profile for the core and the envelope. In addition to the observed periods, we take into account other information from the observational data, such as amplitudes, rotational splittings, and period spacing, as well as photometry and spectroscopy. For each star, we present an asteroseismological model that closely reproduces their observed properties. The asteroseismological stellar mass and effective temperature of the target stars are (0.632+/- 0.027 {M}ȯ , 10737 ± 73 K) for GD 1212, (0.745+/- 0.007 {M}ȯ , 11110 ± 69 K) for KIC 4552982, (0.5480+/- 0.01 {M}ȯ , 12,721 ± 228 K) for KIC11911480, and (0.570+/- 0.01 {M}ȯ , 12,060 ± 300 K) for SDSS J113655.17+040952.6. In general, the asteroseismological values are in good agreement with the spectroscopy. For KIC 11911480 and SDSS J113655.17+040952.6 we derive a similar seismological mass, but the hydrogen envelope is an order of magnitude thinner for SDSS J113655.17+040952.6, which is part of a binary system and went through a common envelope phase.

  2. Evolutionary-based approaches for determining the deviatoric stress of calcareous sands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahnazari, Habib; Tutunchian, Mohammad A.; Rezvani, Reza; Valizadeh, Fatemeh

    2013-01-01

    Many hydrocarbon reservoirs are located near oceans which are covered by calcareous deposits. These sediments consist mainly of the remains of marine plants or animals, so calcareous soils can have a wide variety of engineering properties. Due to their local expansion and considerable differences from terrigenous soils, the evaluation of engineering behaviors of calcareous sediments has been a major concern for geotechnical engineers in recent years. Deviatoric stress is one of the most important parameters directly affecting important shearing characteristics of soils. In this study, a dataset of experimental triaxial tests was gathered from two sources. First, the data of previous experimental studies from the literature were gathered. Then, a series of triaxial tests was performed on calcareous sands of the Persian Gulf to develop the dataset. This work resulted in a large database of experimental results on the maximum deviatoric stress of different calcareous sands. To demonstrate the capabilities of evolutionary-based approaches in modeling the deviatoric stress of calcareous sands, two promising variants of genetic programming (GP), multigene genetic programming (MGP) and gene expression programming (GEP), were applied to propose new predictive models. The models' input parameters were the physical and in-situ condition properties of soil and the output was the maximum deviatoric stress (i.e., the axial-deviator stress). The results of statistical analyses indicated the robustness of these models, and a parametric study was also conducted for further verification of the models, in which the resulting trends were consistent with the results of the experimental study. Finally, the proposed models were further simplified by applying a practical geotechnical correlation.

  3. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  4. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemtsev, G., E-mail: g.nemtsev@iterrf.ru; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Rodionov, R. [Institution “Project center ITER,” Moscow (Russian Federation); Popovichev, S. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Collaboration: EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  5. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  6. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  7. A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, J.B.; Brincker, Rune; López-Aenlle, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes...

  8. Multi-Working Modes Product-Color Planning Based on Evolutionary Algorithms and Swarm Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Ding

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to assist designer in color planning during product development, a novel synthesized evaluation method is presented to evaluate color-combination schemes of multi-working modes products (MMPs. The proposed evaluation method considers color-combination images in different working modes as evaluating attributes, to which the corresponding weights are assigned for synthesized evaluation. Then a mathematical model is developed to search for optimal color-combination schemes of MMP based on the proposed evaluation method and two powerful search techniques known as Evolution Algorithms (EAs and Swarm Intelligence (SI. In the experiments, we present a comparative study for two EAs, namely, Genetic Algorithm (GA and Difference Evolution (DE, and one SI algorithm, namely, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO, on searching for color-combination schemes of MMP problem. All of the algorithms are evaluated against a test scenario, namely, an Arm-type aerial work platform, which has two working modes. The results show that the DE obtains the superior solution than the other two algorithms for color-combination scheme searching problem in terms of optimization accuracy and computation robustness. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is feasible and efficient.

  9. Land-use scenarios for Finnish cut-over peatlands – based on the mineral subsoil characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Päivi T. Picken

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Finland, peat harvesting sites are exploited down almost to the mineral soil and the properties of mineral subsoil have considerable influence on the suitability of the various after-use forms. Chemical and physical features of the mineral subsoil must be studied whenafter-use is planned, to ensure no harmful effects follow. Research on mineral subsoils was carried out on Finnish peat production sites in 1997–1998 and 9800 hectares of peat production areas slowly getting exhausted were studied. The cutover area clearly suitable forforestation covered 57 % of the study area. The area well suitable for agriculture or energy crop growing covered 26-42 % of the study - depending if boulder-poor tills were included or excluded. Even larger areas might be possible for agriculture if for example remaining peat layer was used for compensating physical features of the mineral subsoil. Approximately 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration because of sensitive bottom soils, but much larger areas were possible for mire regeneratio. In 9 % of all cases fine mineral subsoils were on pool-forming locations and would this way offer sites best suitable for mire regeneration or even bird sanctuaries. Both EC and pH of the mineral subsoils were related to the presence of sulphur. The concentrations of Ca, Mg and K followed the fine-material percentage. Based on this study minimum analysis recommended was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (< 0.06 mm percentage. Other relevant elements were calcium, magnesium and potassium. Different land-use scenarios were created for areas inafter-use, released from peat production and in peat production (2004. These scenarios were based on the mineral subsoil suitability for different after-use forms. In these scenarios the total area annual carbon fixation values varied between 0.096 and 0.152 million t C a-1, when carbon emissions were not included.

  10. Evolutionary Nephrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevalier, Robert L

    2017-05-01

    Progressive kidney disease follows nephron loss, hyperfiltration, and incomplete repair, a process described as "maladaptive." In the past 20 years, a new discipline has emerged that expands research horizons: evolutionary medicine. In contrast to physiologic (homeostatic) adaptation, evolutionary adaptation is the result of reproductive success that reflects natural selection. Evolutionary explanations for physiologically maladaptive responses can emerge from mismatch of the phenotype with environment or evolutionary tradeoffs. Evolutionary adaptation to a terrestrial environment resulted in a vulnerable energy-consuming renal tubule and a hypoxic, hyperosmolar microenvironment. Natural selection favors successful energy investment strategy: energy is allocated to maintenance of nephron integrity through reproductive years, but this declines with increasing senescence after ~40 years of age. Risk factors for chronic kidney disease include restricted fetal growth or preterm birth (life history tradeoff resulting in fewer nephrons), evolutionary selection for APOL1 mutations (that provide resistance to trypanosome infection, a tradeoff), and modern life experience (Western diet mismatch leading to diabetes and hypertension). Current advances in genomics, epigenetics, and developmental biology have revealed proximate causes of kidney disease, but attempts to slow kidney disease remain elusive. Evolutionary medicine provides a complementary approach by addressing ultimate causes of kidney disease. Marked variation in nephron number at birth, nephron heterogeneity, and changing susceptibility to kidney injury throughout life history are the result of evolutionary processes. Combined application of molecular genetics, evolutionary developmental biology (evo-devo), developmental programming and life history theory may yield new strategies for prevention and treatment of chronic kidney disease.

  11. The effects of scenario-based communication training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy and myocardial infarction knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Li-Ling; Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a simulated communication training course on nurses' communication competence, self-efficacy, communication performance, myocardial infarction knowledge, and general satisfaction with their learning experience. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a pre-test and two post-tests. The experimental group underwent simulated communication training course and the control group received a case-based communication training course. The experimental group made more significant improvement in competence and self-efficacy in communication from pre-test to the second post-test than the control group. Although both groups' satisfaction with their learning experience significantly increased from the first post-test to the second post-test, the experimental group was found to be more satisfied with their learning experience than the control group. No significant differences in communication performance and myocardial infarction knowledge between the two groups were identified. Scenario-based communication training can be more fully incorporated into in-service education for nurses to boost their competence and self-efficacy in communication and enhance their communication performance in myocardial infarction patient care. Introduction of real-life communication scenarios through multimedia in communication education could make learners more motivated to practice communication, hence leading to improved communication capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A scenario-based verification technique to assess the compatibility of collaborative business processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Backer, M.; Snoeck, M.; Monsieur, G.; Lemahieu, W.; Dedene, G.

    2009-01-01

    Successful E-Business is based on seamless collaborative business processes. Each partner in the collaboration specifies its own rules and interaction preconditions. The verification of the compatibility of collaborative business processes, based on local and global views, is a complex task, which

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

    2013-01-01

    A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Seismic and Tsunami Waveform Simulation based on Dynamic Rupture Scenarios: Anticipated Nankai-Tonankai Earthquakes, Southwest Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kim, S.

    2016-12-01

    Rupture scenarios of anticipated huge earthquakes based on earthquake physics and observational records should be useful for the hazard evaluation of future disastrous earthquakes. Hok et al. (2011, JGR) proposed possible dynamic rupture scenarios of anticipated Nankai-Tonankai huge earthquakes, southwest Japan using estimated slip deficit distribution and an appropriate fault friction law. These scenarios are quite useful to study the details of the wave propagation as well as potential earthquake and tsunami hazard (e.g. Kim et al. 2016, EPS). The objective in this study is to synthesize seismic and tsunami waveforms of the anticipated huge earthquakes, which could be useful for the future hazard assessment. We propose a method of synthesizing the waveforms, in particular, in the region of offshore focal area where seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis simultaneously exist, which makes the wavefield very complicated. We calculated the seismic and tsunami waveforms caused by a dynamic rupture of huge earthquakes (Mw 8.5) southwestern Japan. There are two kinds of tsunami observations: ocean bottom pressure gauges detect tsunami as pressure change at the sea bottom and GPS tsunami gauges measure tsunami as vertical displacement at the sea surface. Our simulation results indicated that both tsunami records are significantly contaminated by seismic waves in a few minutes after the earthquake occurrence. The tsunami and seismic waves have different excitation mechanisms: seismic wave excitation strongly depends on the time scale of the rupture (moment rate), while tsunami excitation is determined by the static parameters (fault geometry and seismic moment). Therefore, for a reliable tsunami prediction, it is important to analyze observed tsunami records excluding the seismic waves that behave like tsunami near the source area.

  16. Bargaining-based jammer power allocation for dynamic eavesdropping scenario: Doc 1001

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Duan Bowen; Cai Yueming; Zheng Jianchao; Yang Weiwei; Yang Wendong

    2014-01-01

      This paper proposes a bargaining-based jammer power allocation scheme for multi-source multi-destination wireless network in the presence of a friendly jammer and a malicious node which eavesdrops erratically...

  17. A scenario-based verification technique to assess the compatibility of collaborative business processes.

    OpenAIRE

    De Backer, Manu; Snoeck, Monique; Monsieur, Geert; Lemahieu, Wilfried; Dedene, Guido

    2009-01-01

    Successful E-Business is based on seamless collaborative business processes. Each partner in the collaboration specifies its own rules and interaction preconditions. The verification of the compatibility of collaborative business processes, based on local and global views, is a complex task, which is critical for the success of the cooperation. The verification of process compatibility should be a key element in the design of new business alliances, which makes this verification essential in ...

  18. Problem-based scenarios with laptops: an effective combination for cross-curricular learning in mathematics, science and language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Freiman

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Many educational systems consider using one-to-one access to the laptop as a way to improve teaching and learning. A two-year action research project on the use of laptop computers by New Brunswick (Canada grade 7 and 8 Francophone students aimed to better understand the impact of laptops on learning. Two problem-based learning (PBL interdisciplinary scenarios (math, science, language arts were implemented in eight experimental classes to measure and document students’ actual learning process, particularly in terms of their ability to scientifically investigate authentic problems, to reason mathematically, and to communicate. On-site observations, video-recording, journals, samples of students’ work, and interviews were used to collect qualitative data. Based on our findings, we argue that laptops in and of themselves may not automatically lead to better results on standardized tests, but rather create opportunities to enrich learning with more open-ended, constructive, collaborative, reflective, and cognitively complex learning tasks.

  19. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

  20. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  1. dbCRY: a Web-based comparative and evolutionary genomics platform for blue-light receptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong-Min; Choi, Jaeyoung; Lee, Hye-Young; Lee, Gir-Won; Lee, Yong-Hwan; Choi, Doil

    2014-01-01

    Cryptochromes are flavoproteins that play a central role in the circadian oscillations of all living organisms except archaea. Cryptochromes are clustered into three subfamilies: plant-type cryptochromes, animal-type cryptochromes and cryptochrome-DASH proteins. These subfamilies are composed of photolyase/cryptochrome superfamily with 6-4 photolyase and cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer photolyase. Cryptochromes have conserved domain architectures with two distinct domains, an N-terminal photolyase-related domain and a C-terminal domain. Although the molecular function and domain architecture of cryptochromes are conserved, their molecular mechanisms differ between plants and animals. Thus, cryptochromes are one of the best candidates for comparative and evolutionary studies. Here, we have developed a Web-based platform for comparative and evolutionary studies of cryptochromes, dbCRY (http://www.dbcryptochrome.org/). A pipeline built upon the consensus domain profile was applied to 1438 genomes and identified 1309 genes. To support comparative and evolutionary genomics studies, the Web interface provides diverse functions such as (i) browsing by species, (ii) protein domain analysis, (iii) multiple sequence alignment, (iv) homology search and (v) extended analysis opportunities through the implementation of 'Favorite Browser' powered by the Comparative Fungal Genomics Platform 2.0 (CFGP 2.0; http://cfgp.snu.ac.kr/). dbCRY would serve as a standardized and systematic solution for cryptochrome genomics studies. Database URL: http://www.dbcryptochrome.org/

  2. Evolutionary signatures amongst disease genes permit novel methods for gene prioritization and construction of informative gene-based networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nolan Priedigkeit

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Genes involved in the same function tend to have similar evolutionary histories, in that their rates of evolution covary over time. This coevolutionary signature, termed Evolutionary Rate Covariation (ERC, is calculated using only gene sequences from a set of closely related species and has demonstrated potential as a computational tool for inferring functional relationships between genes. To further define applications of ERC, we first established that roughly 55% of genetic diseases posses an ERC signature between their contributing genes. At a false discovery rate of 5% we report 40 such diseases including cancers, developmental disorders and mitochondrial diseases. Given these coevolutionary signatures between disease genes, we then assessed ERC's ability to prioritize known disease genes out of a list of unrelated candidates. We found that in the presence of an ERC signature, the true disease gene is effectively prioritized to the top 6% of candidates on average. We then apply this strategy to a melanoma-associated region on chromosome 1 and identify MCL1 as a potential causative gene. Furthermore, to gain global insight into disease mechanisms, we used ERC to predict molecular connections between 310 nominally distinct diseases. The resulting "disease map" network associates several diseases with related pathogenic mechanisms and unveils many novel relationships between clinically distinct diseases, such as between Hirschsprung's disease and melanoma. Taken together, these results demonstrate the utility of molecular evolution as a gene discovery platform and show that evolutionary signatures can be used to build informative gene-based networks.

  3. A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

    2016-09-01

    Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

  4. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  5. EvoTol: a protein-sequence based evolutionary intolerance framework for disease-gene prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Rackham, Owen?J.?L.; Shihab, Hashem A.; Johnson, Michael R.; Petretto, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Methods to interpret personal genome sequences are increasingly required. Here, we report a novel framework (EvoTol) to identify disease-causing genes using patient sequence data from within protein coding-regions. EvoTol quantifies a gene's intolerance to mutation using evolutionary conservation of protein sequences and can incorporate tissue-specific gene expression data. We apply this framework to the analysis of whole-exome sequence data in epilepsy and congenital heart disease, and demon...

  6. An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Drake John M; Roche Benjamin; Rohani Pejman

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to co...

  7. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  8. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Shishkov, Boris; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support

  9. A model based method for evaluation of crop operation scenarios in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooster, van 't A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract This research initiated a model-based method to analyse labour in crop production systems and to quantify effects of system changes in order to contribute to effective greenhouse crop cultivation systems with efficient use of human labour and technology. This method was

  10. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  11. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  12. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  13. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Gupta BPharm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  14. Use case scenarios - space based receiver assessment : GPS Adjacent Band Compatibility Assessment Workshop VI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-30

    This workshop presentation discusses space based receiver applications, NASA developed receivers, the TriG receiver, on-orbit assessment parameters, the TriG GNSS-RO antenna gain pattern, the GNSS-RO antenna beam Earth grazing coverage area, assessme...

  15. Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

    2016-01-01

    was poor. This study indicates that assessing preventability of readmissions based solely on the judgement of physicians is far from perfect. Current literature on the preventability of readmissions and conclusions derived on the basis of physician opinion should be interpreted with caution.......Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which...... conclusions on factors predicting preventable readmissions were derived. There is no literature on the interobserver agreement of physician judgement. Aim: To assess the degree of agreement among physicians regarding predictability and preventability of medical readmissions. Design: An online survey based...

  16. Using a Flexible Skill-Based Approach to Recognize Objects in Industrial Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Skovgaard; Schou, Casper; Damgaard, Jens Skov

    2016-01-01

    as well as the need for highly specialized staff for setting up modern collaborative robots. This paper proposes a skill for recognition and classification of different objects. The skill is parameterized using manual kinesthetic teaching, and machine learning based on SIFT features, Bag of Words, and SVM......Traditional industrial robots are highly efficient and precise and therefore well suited for carrying out simple, repetitive tasks. They are, however, complicated and time consuming to setup and re-program to perform new tasks. Skill-based programming attempts to reduce both the required time...... is used to classify objects. A user study with 20 test participants shows that robotics novices after only a short introduction are able to instruct the skill and combine it with other skills (pick and place) to program a complete task....

  17. Sustainability assessment of electricity production technologies based on the turkish RES scenario in 2020

    OpenAIRE

    Tunarli, Korhan

    2014-01-01

    Environmental protection, economic development and social development are known to be three pillars of sustainability that should exist together for sustainable development. Sustainability assessment can be carried out for products, technologies, policies and processes. In this master thesis project, three pillars of sustainability are deeply studied with regards to electricity production technologies in Turkey for year 2020, in which futuristic projections are based on one chosen renewable e...

  18. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  19. Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Individual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM describing the Italian epidemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We co-located the Italian population (57 million inhabitants to households, schools and workplaces and we assigned travel destinations to match the 2001 census data. We considered different R(0 values (1.4; 1.7; 2, evaluating the impact of control measures (vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis -AVP-, international air travel restrictions and increased social distancing. The administration of two vaccine doses was considered, assuming that first dose would be administered 1-6 months after the first world case, and different values for vaccine effectiveness (VE. With no interventions, importation would occur 37-77 days after the first world case. Air travel restrictions would delay the importation of the pandemic by 7-37 days. With an R(0 of 1.4 or 1.7, the use of combined measures would reduce clinical attack rates (AR from 21-31% to 0.3-4%. Assuming an R(0 of 2, the AR would decrease from 38% to 8%, yet only if vaccination were started within 2 months of the first world case, in combination with a 90% reduction in international air traffic, closure of schools/workplaces for 4 weeks and AVP of household and school/work close contacts of clinical cases. Varying VE would not substantially affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: This IBM, which is based on country-specific demographic data, could be suitable for the real-time evaluation of measures to be undertaken in the event of the emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus. All preventive measures considered should be implemented to mitigate the pandemic.

  20. EDGE TECHNOLOGIES IN IoT AND APPLICATION SCENARIO OF RFID BASED IoT

    OpenAIRE

    Dharam Gami *, Asst. Prof. Dhaval Nimavat, Asst. Prof. Shubham Sharma

    2016-01-01

    Internet of Things possesses the power to change the era. IoT will offer an advance connectivity between objects which will change the face of machine-to-machine communication. IoT will connect autonomous systems, devices and heterogeneous machines and make them communicate without human interactions. Many technologies will play significant role in IoT implementation. In this paper, we aim to describe the candidate of edge technologies in IoT and demonstrate how RFID based IoT system will loo...

  1. Building Damage Assessment Using Scenario Based Tsunami Numerical Analysis and Fragility Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khawar Rehman

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A combination of a deterministic approach and fragility analysis is applied to assess tsunami damage caused to buildings. The area selected to validate the model is Imwon Port in Korea. The deterministic approach includes numerical modeling of tsunami propagation in the East Sea following an earthquake on the western coast of Japan. The model is based on the linear shallow-water equations (LSWE augmented with Boussinesq approximation to account for dispersion effects in wave propagation, and coastal wave run-up is modeled by non-linear shallow-water equations (NLSWE. The output from the deterministic model comprises inundation depth. The numerical output is used to perform fragility analysis for buildings vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis in the port area. Recently developed fragility curves—based on the ordinal regression method—are used for damage probability estimates. The extent of structural damage in the areas under a tsunami hazard is identified by the numerical modeling of tsunami features. Our numerical model offers high bathymetric resolution, which enables us to capture flow features at the individual structure level and results in improved estimation of damage probability. This approach can serve as a measure of assessing structure vulnerability for areas with little or no records of tsunami damage and provide planners with a better understanding of structure behavior when a tsunami strikes.

  2. Ray-Based Statistical Propagation Modeling for Indoor Corridor Scenarios at 15 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demands for fifth-generation (5G communication systems, high frequency bands (above 6 GHz need to be adopted to provide additional spectrum. This paper investigates the characteristics of indoor corridor channels at 15 GHz. Channel measurements with a vector network analyzer in two corridors were conducted. Based on a ray-optical approach, a deterministic channel model covering both antenna and propagation characteristic is presented. The channel model is evaluated by comparing simulated results of received power and root mean square delay spread with the corresponding measurements. By removing the impact of directional antennas from the transmitter and receiver, a path loss model as well as small-scale fading properties for typical corridors is presented based on the generated samples from the deterministic model. Results show that the standard deviation of path loss variation is related to the Tx height, and placing the Tx closer to the ceiling leads to a smaller fluctuation of path loss.

  3. South African maize production scenarios for 2055 using a combined empirical and process-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, L.; Bradley, B.; Oppenheimer, M.; Wilcove, D.; Beukes, H.; Schulze, R. E.; Tadross, M.

    2011-12-01

    In South Africa, a semi-arid country with a diverse agricultural sector, climate change is projected to negatively impact staple crop production. Our study examines future impacts to maize, South Africa's most widely grown staple crop. Working at finer spatial resolution than previous studies, we combine the process-based DSSAT4.5 and the empirical MAXENT models to study future maize suitability. Climate scenarios were based on 9 GCMs run under SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenarios down-scaled (using self-organizing maps) to 5838 locations. Soil properties were derived from textural and compositional data linked to 26422 landforms. DSSAT was run with typical dryland planting parameters and mean projected CO2 values. MAXENT was trained using aircraft-observed distributions and monthly climatologies data derived from downscaled daily records, with future rainfall increased by 10% to simulate CO2 related water-use efficiency gains. We assessed model accuracy based on correlations between model output and a satellite-derived yield proxy (integrated NDVI), and the overlap of modeled and observed maize field distributions. DSSAT yields were linearly correlated to mean integrated NDVI (R2 = 0.38), while MAXENT's relationship was logistic. Binary suitability maps based on thresholding model outputs were slightly more accurate for MAXENT (88%) than for DSSAT (87%) when compared to current maize field distribution. We created 18 suitability maps for each model (9 GCMs X 2 SRES) using projected changes relative to historical suitability thresholds. Future maps largely agreed in eastern South Africa, but disagreed strongly in the semi-arid west. Using a 95% confidence criterion (17 models agree), MAXENT showed a 241305 km2 suitability loss relative to its modeled historical suitability, while DSSAT showed a potential loss of only 112446 km2. Even the smaller potential loss highlighted by DSSAT is uncertain, given that DSSAT's mean (across all 18 climate scenarios) projected yield

  4. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: Numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kang, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. We employed the 1707 Hoei earthquake source model and physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone. We also considered the effect of horizontal displacement on tsunami generation. Our simulation results from the Hoei earthquake model and the anticipated earthquake models showed that the maximum tsunami height along the Korean coast was less than 0.5 m. Even though the tsunami is not life-threatening, the effect of larger earthquakes should be still considered.

  5. Evolutionary Nephrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert L. Chevalier

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Progressive kidney disease follows nephron loss, hyperfiltration, and incomplete repair, a process described as “maladaptive.” In the past 20 years, a new discipline has emerged that expands research horizons: evolutionary medicine. In contrast to physiologic (homeostatic adaptation, evolutionary adaptation is the result of reproductive success that reflects natural selection. Evolutionary explanations for physiologically maladaptive responses can emerge from mismatch of the phenotype with environment or from evolutionary tradeoffs. Evolutionary adaptation to a terrestrial environment resulted in a vulnerable energy-consuming renal tubule and a hypoxic, hyperosmolar microenvironment. Natural selection favors successful energy investment strategy: energy is allocated to maintenance of nephron integrity through reproductive years, but this declines with increasing senescence after ∼40 years of age. Risk factors for chronic kidney disease include restricted fetal growth or preterm birth (life history tradeoff resulting in fewer nephrons, evolutionary selection for APOL1 mutations (which provide resistance to trypanosome infection, a tradeoff, and modern life experience (Western diet mismatch leading to diabetes and hypertension. Current advances in genomics, epigenetics, and developmental biology have revealed proximate causes of kidney disease, but attempts to slow kidney disease remain elusive. Evolutionary medicine provides a complementary approach by addressing ultimate causes of kidney disease. Marked variation in nephron number at birth, nephron heterogeneity, and changing susceptibility to kidney injury throughout the life history are the result of evolutionary processes. Combined application of molecular genetics, evolutionary developmental biology (evo-devo, developmental programming, and life history theory may yield new strategies for prevention and treatment of chronic kidney disease.

  6. BRISENT: An Entropy-Based Model for Bridge-Pier Scour Estimation under Complex Hydraulic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alonso Pizarro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce the first clear-water scour model based on both the informational entropy concept and the principle of maximum entropy, showing that a variational approach is ideal for describing erosional processes under complex situations. The proposed bridge–pier scour entropic (BRISENT model is capable of reproducing the main dynamics of scour depth evolution under steady hydraulic conditions, step-wise hydrographs, and flood waves. For the calibration process, 266 clear-water scour experiments from 20 precedent studies were considered, where the dimensionless parameters varied widely. Simple formulations are proposed to estimate BRISENT’s fitting coefficients, in which the ratio between pier-diameter and sediment-size was the most critical physical characteristic controlling scour model parametrization. A validation process considering highly unsteady and multi-peaked hydrographs was carried out, showing that the proposed BRISENT model reproduces scour evolution with high accuracy.

  7. Evolutionary strategy to develop learning-based decision systems. Application to breast cancer and liver fibrosis stadialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorunescu, Florin; Belciug, Smaranda

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to propose an evolutionary-based method for building a decision model and, second, to assess and validate the model's performance using five different real-world medical datasets (breast cancer and liver fibrosis) by comparing it with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The evolutionary-inspired approach has been used to develop the learning-based decision model in the following manner: the hybridization of algorithms has been considered as "crossover", while the development of new variants which can be thought of as "mutation". An appropriate hierarchy of the component algorithms was established based on a statistically built fitness measure. A synergetic decision-making process, based on a weighted voting system, involved the collaboration between the selected algorithms in making the final decision. Well-established statistical performance measures and comparison tests have been extensively used to design and implement the model. Finally, the proposed method has been tested on five medical datasets, out of which four publicly available, and contrasted with state-of-the-art techniques, showing its efficiency in supporting the medical decision-making process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Scott; Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents' classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition.

  9. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  10. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  11. Unity and disunity in evolutionary sciences: process-based analogies open common research avenues for biology and linguistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Johann-Mattis; Pathmanathan, Jananan Sylvestre; Lopez, Philippe; Bapteste, Eric

    2016-08-20

    For a long time biologists and linguists have been noticing surprising similarities between the evolution of life forms and languages. Most of the proposed analogies have been rejected. Some, however, have persisted, and some even turned out to be fruitful, inspiring the transfer of methods and models between biology and linguistics up to today. Most proposed analogies were based on a comparison of the research objects rather than the processes that shaped their evolution. Focusing on process-based analogies, however, has the advantage of minimizing the risk of overstating similarities, while at the same time reflecting the common strategy to use processes to explain the evolution of complexity in both fields. We compared important evolutionary processes in biology and linguistics and identified processes specific to only one of the two disciplines as well as processes which seem to be analogous, potentially reflecting core evolutionary processes. These new process-based analogies support novel methodological transfer, expanding the application range of biological methods to the field of historical linguistics. We illustrate this by showing (i) how methods dealing with incomplete lineage sorting offer an introgression-free framework to analyze highly mosaic word distributions across languages; (ii) how sequence similarity networks can be used to identify composite and borrowed words across different languages; (iii) how research on partial homology can inspire new methods and models in both fields; and (iv) how constructive neutral evolution provides an original framework for analyzing convergent evolution in languages resulting from common descent (Sapir's drift). Apart from new analogies between evolutionary processes, we also identified processes which are specific to either biology or linguistics. This shows that general evolution cannot be studied from within one discipline alone. In order to get a full picture of evolution, biologists and linguists need to

  12. Evolutionary approach for spatial architecture layout design enhanced by an agent-based topology finding system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zifeng Guo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for the automatic generation of a spatial architectural layout from a user-specified architectural program. The proposed approach binds a multi-agent topology finding system and an evolutionary optimization process. The former generates topology satisfied layouts for further optimization, while the latter focuses on refining the layouts to achieve predefined architectural criteria. The topology finding process narrows the search space and increases the performance in subsequent optimization. Results imply that the spatial layout modeling and the multi-floor topology are handled.

  13. A Study on Standard Competition with Network Effect Based on Evolutionary Game Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Wang, Bingdong; Li, Kangning

    Owing to networks widespread in modern society, standard competition with network effect is now endowed with new connotation. This paper aims to study the impact of network effect on standard competition; it is organized in the mode of "introduction-model setup-equilibrium analysis-conclusion". Starting from a well-structured model of evolutionary game, it is then extended to a dynamic analysis. This article proves both theoretically and empirically that whether or not a standard can lead the market trends depends on the utility it would bring, and the author also discusses some advisable strategies revolving around the two factors of initial position and border break.

  14. Simulating Interactive Learning Scenarios with Intelligent Pedagogical Agents in a Virtual World through BDI-Based Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Soliman

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Intelligent Pedagogical Agents (IPAs are designed for pedagogical purposes to support learning in 3D virtual learning environments. Several benefits of IPAs have been found adding to support learning effectiveness. Pedagogical agents can be thought of as a central point of interaction between the learner and the learning environment. And hence, the intelligent behavior and functional richness of pedagogical agents have the potential to reward back into increased engagement and learning effectiveness. However, the realization of those agents remains to be a challenge based on intelligent agents in virtual worlds. This paper reports the challenging reasons and most importantly an approach for simplification. A simulation based on BDI agents is introduced opening the road for several extensions and experimentation before implementation of IPAs in a virtual world can take place. The simulation provides a proof-of concept based on three intelligent agents to represent an IPA, a learner, and learning object implemented in JACK and Jadex intelligent agent platforms. To that end, the paper exhibits the difficulties, resolutions, and decisions made when designing and implementing the learning scenario in both domains of the virtual world and the agent-based simulation while comparing the two agent platforms.

  15. A Distributed Dynamic Super Peer Selection Method Based on Evolutionary Game for Heterogeneous P2P Streaming Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to high efficiency and good scalability, hierarchical hybrid P2P architecture has drawn more and more attention in P2P streaming research and application fields recently. The problem about super peer selection, which is the key problem in hybrid heterogeneous P2P architecture, is becoming highly challenging because super peers must be selected from a huge and dynamically changing network. A distributed super peer selection (SPS algorithm for hybrid heterogeneous P2P streaming system based on evolutionary game is proposed in this paper. The super peer selection procedure is modeled based on evolutionary game framework firstly, and its evolutionarily stable strategies are analyzed. Then a distributed Q-learning algorithm (ESS-SPS according to the mixed strategies by analysis is proposed for the peers to converge to the ESSs based on its own payoff history. Compared to the traditional randomly super peer selection scheme, experiments results show that the proposed ESS-SPS algorithm achieves better performance in terms of social welfare and average upload rate of super peers and keeps the upload capacity of the P2P streaming system increasing steadily with the number of peers increasing.

  16. Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: a water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Wang, Yilin; Sheng, Hu; Dong, Feifei; Zou, Rui; Zhao, Lei; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhu, Xiang; He, Bin

    2014-01-15

    China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hypoxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet

  17. Scenarios, personas and user stories: user-centered evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2013-08-01

    Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of user-centered design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to CD monitoring and control at a local health agency, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health agency CD workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: (1) public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed, (2) health agency efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and (3) current CD information systems must conform to public health workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Through application of user-centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable disease workflow and key user characteristics to inform the design of CD information

  18. Scenarios, personas and user stories from design ethnography: Evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create a unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of User Center Design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to communicable disease (CD) monitoring and control at a local health department, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. Methods We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health department communicable disease workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design (UCD) we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. Results We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: 1) that public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed 2) health department efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and 3) current CD information systems must conform to PH workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Conclusions Through application of user centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable

  19. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  20. Emergence of altruism behavior in army ant-based social evolutionary system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichimura, Takumi; Uemoto, Takuya; Hara, Akira; Mackin, Kenneth J

    2014-01-01

    Army ants perform the altruism behavior that an ant sacrifices its own well-being for the benefit of another ants. They build bridges using their own bodies along the path from a food to the nest. We developed the army ant inspired social evolutionary system by using Swarm library. The system has 2 kinds of ant agents, 'Major ant' and 'Minor ant'. They communicate with each other via pheromones. Army ant can recognize them as the signals from the other ants. The pheromones evaporate with the certain ratio and diffused into the space of neighbors stochastically. If the optimal bridge is found, the path through the bridge is the shortest route from the food to the nest. We define the probability for an ant to leave a bridge as to the number of neighboring ants. The constructing method of the optimal route has been proposed. In this paper, the behaviors of ant under the environment with two or more feeding spots were observed. Some experimental results show the behaviors of great interest with respect to altruism of ants. The knowledge discovery of social evolutionary process from some computer simulation results is described in this paper.

  1. Memory and Combinatorial Logic Based on DNA Inversions: Dynamics and Evolutionary Stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Rodriguez, Jesus; Yang, Lei; Gorochowski, Thomas E; Gordon, D Benjamin; Voigt, Christopher A

    2015-12-18

    Genetic memory can be implemented using enzymes that catalyze DNA inversions, where each orientation corresponds to a "bit". Here, we use two DNA invertases (FimE and HbiF) that reorient DNA irreversibly between two states with opposite directionality. First, we construct memory that is set by FimE and reset by HbiF. Next, we build a NOT gate where the input promoter drives FimE and in the absence of signal the reverse state is maintained by the constitutive expression of HbiF. The gate requires ∼3 h to turn on and off. The evolutionary stabilities of these circuits are measured by passaging cells while cycling function. The memory switch is stable over 400 h (17 days, 14 state changes); however, the gate breaks after 54 h (>2 days) due to continuous invertase expression. Genome sequencing reveals that the circuit remains intact, but the host strain evolves to reduce invertase expression. This work highlights the need to evaluate the evolutionary robustness and failure modes of circuit designs, especially as more complex multigate circuits are implemented.

  2. An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Rajashree

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

  3. Multi-GPU based framework for real-time motion analysis and tracking in multi-user scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidi Ahmed Mahmoudi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Video processing algorithms present a necessary tool for various domains related to computer vision such as motion tracking, event detection and localization in multi-user scenarios (crowd videos, mobile camera, scenes with noise, etc.. However, the new video standards, especially those in high definitions require more computation since their treatment is applied on large video frames. As result, the current implementations, even running on modern hardware, cannot provide a real-time processing (25 frames per second, fps. Several solutions have been proposed to overcome this constraint, by exploiting graphic processing units (GPUs. Although they exploit GPU platforms, they are not able to provide a real-time processing of high definition video sequences. In this work, we propose a new framework that enables an efficient exploitation of single and multiple GPUs, in order to achieve real-time processing of Full HD or even 4K video standards. Moreover, the framework includes several GPU based primitive functions related to motion analysis and tracking methods, such as silhouette extraction, contours extraction, corners detection and tracking using optical flow estimation. Based on this framework, we developed several real-time and GPU based video processing applications such as motion detection using moving camera, event detection and event localization

  4. A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

  5. Scenario based product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tideman, M.

    2008-01-01

    Creating good products is not an easy thing to do. There are usually many different people who have an interest in the product. People such as the user, of course, but also marketing managers, production engineers, maintenance workers, recycling specialists, and government representatives, just to

  6. An efficient hybrid evolutionary algorithm based on PSO and HBMO algorithms for multi-objective Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niknam, Taher [Electronic and Electrical Engineering Department, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz (Iran)

    2009-08-15

    This paper introduces a robust searching hybrid evolutionary algorithm to solve the multi-objective Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration (DFR). The main objective of the DFR is to minimize the real power loss, deviation of the nodes' voltage, the number of switching operations, and balance the loads on the feeders. Because of the fact that the objectives are different and no commensurable, it is difficult to solve the problem by conventional approaches that may optimize a single objective. This paper presents a new approach based on norm3 for the DFR problem. In the proposed method, the objective functions are considered as a vector and the aim is to maximize the distance (norm2) between the objective function vector and the worst objective function vector while the constraints are met. Since the proposed DFR is a multi objective and non-differentiable optimization problem, a new hybrid evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on the combination of the Honey Bee Mating Optimization (HBMO) and the Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO), called DPSO-HBMO, is implied to solve it. The results of the proposed reconfiguration method are compared with the solutions obtained by other approaches, the original DPSO and HBMO over different distribution test systems. (author)

  7. The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous algorithms.

  8. A specific scenario for the origin of life and the genetic code based on peptide/oligonucleotide interdependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Robert W

    2009-12-01

    Among various scenarios that attempt to explain how life arose, the RNA world is currently the most widely accepted scientific hypothesis among biologists. However, the RNA world is logistically implausible and doesn't explain how translation arose and DNA became incorporated into living systems. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis for life's origin based on cooperation between simple nucleic acids, peptides and lipids. Organic matter that accumulated on the prebiotic Earth segregated into phases in the ocean based on density and solubility. Synthesis of complex organic monomers and polymerization reactions occurred within a surface hydrophilic layer and at its aqueous and atmospheric interfaces. Replication of nucleic acids and translation of peptides began at the emulsified interface between hydrophobic and aqueous layers. At the core of the protobiont was a family of short nucleic acids bearing arginine's codon and anticodon that added this amino acid to pre-formed peptides. In turn, the survival and replication of nucleic acid was aided by the peptides. The arginine-enriched peptides served to sequester and transfer phosphate bond energy and acted as cohesive agents, aggregating nucleic acids and keeping them at the interface.

  9. Characterization of periodic extreme ultraviolet multilayer based on multi-objective evolutionary algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Shang-qi; Gong, Xue-peng; Yang, Hai-gui

    2017-11-01

    In order to refine the layered structure of extreme ultraviolet multilayers, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm which is post-hybridized with the standard Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied to analyze the grazing incidence X-ray reflectivity (GIXR) and the normal incidence extreme ultraviolet reflectance (EUVR). In this procedure, the GIXR data and EUVR data are simultaneously fitted as two objectives, and the high sensitivities of these two sets of data to layer thicknesses and densities are combined. This set of mathematical procedures is conducive to obtain a more correct model of periodic multilayers which can simultaneously describe both GIXR and EUVR measurements. As a result, the layered structure of Mo/Si multilayers with a period of about 7.0 nm is obtained.

  10. Analysis of Urban Car Owners Commute Mode Choice Based on Evolutionary Game Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huawei Gong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the aggravation of the traffic congestion in the city, car owners will have to give up commuting with private cars and take the public transportation instead. The paper uses the replication dynamic mechanism to simulate the learning and adjustment mechanism of the automobile owners commuting mode selection. The evolutionary stable strategy is used to describe the long-term evolution of competition game trend. Finally we simulate equilibrium and stability of an evolution of the game under a payoff imbalance situation. The research shows that a certain proportion of car owners will choose public transit under the pressure of public transport development and heavy traffic, and the proportion will be closely related to the initial conditions and urban transportation development policy.

  11. EvoTol: a protein-sequence based evolutionary intolerance framework for disease-gene prioritization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackham, Owen J L; Shihab, Hashem A; Johnson, Michael R; Petretto, Enrico

    2015-03-11

    Methods to interpret personal genome sequences are increasingly required. Here, we report a novel framework (EvoTol) to identify disease-causing genes using patient sequence data from within protein coding-regions. EvoTol quantifies a gene's intolerance to mutation using evolutionary conservation of protein sequences and can incorporate tissue-specific gene expression data. We apply this framework to the analysis of whole-exome sequence data in epilepsy and congenital heart disease, and demonstrate EvoTol's ability to identify known disease-causing genes is unmatched by competing methods. Application of EvoTol to the human interactome revealed networks enriched for genes intolerant to protein sequence variation, informing novel polygenic contributions to human disease. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  12. Evolutionary programming-based univector field navigation method for past mobile robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y J; Kim, J H; Kwon, D S

    2001-01-01

    Most of navigation techniques with obstacle avoidance do not consider the robot orientation at the target position. These techniques deal with the robot position only and are independent of its orientation and velocity. To solve these problems this paper proposes a novel univector field method for fast mobile robot navigation which introduces a normalized two dimensional vector field. The method provides fast moving robots with the desired posture at the target position and obstacle avoidance. To obtain the sub-optimal vector field, a function approximator is used and trained by evolutionary programming. Two kinds of vector fields are trained, one for the final posture acquisition and the other for obstacle avoidance. Computer simulations and real experiments are carried out for a fast moving mobile robot to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  13. Combining evolutionary information extracted from frequency profiles with sequence-based kernels for protein remote homology detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bin; Zhang, Deyuan; Xu, Ruifeng; Xu, Jinghao; Wang, Xiaolong; Chen, Qingcai; Dong, Qiwen; Chou, Kuo-Chen

    2014-02-15

    Owing to its importance in both basic research (such as molecular evolution and protein attribute prediction) and practical application (such as timely modeling the 3D structures of proteins targeted for drug development), protein remote homology detection has attracted a great deal of interest. It is intriguing to note that the profile-based approach is promising and holds high potential in this regard. To further improve protein remote homology detection, a key step is how to find an optimal means to extract the evolutionary information into the profiles. Here, we propose a novel approach, the so-called profile-based protein representation, to extract the evolutionary information via the frequency profiles. The latter can be calculated from the multiple sequence alignments generated by PSI-BLAST. Three top performing sequence-based kernels (SVM-Ngram, SVM-pairwise and SVM-LA) were combined with the profile-based protein representation. Various tests were conducted on a SCOP benchmark dataset that contains 54 families and 23 superfamilies. The results showed that the new approach is promising, and can obviously improve the performance of the three kernels. Furthermore, our approach can also provide useful insights for studying the features of proteins in various families. It has not escaped our notice that the current approach can be easily combined with the existing sequence-based methods so as to improve their performance as well. For users' convenience, the source code of generating the profile-based proteins and the multiple kernel learning was also provided at http://bioinformatics.hitsz.edu.cn/main/~binliu/remote/

  14. [A Study on the Cognitive Learning Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Concept Mapping in a Neurological Nursing Course].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hui-Ching; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2015-12-01

    The multiple levels of knowledge related to the neurological system deter many students from pursuing studies on this topic. Thus, in facing complicated and uncertain medical circumstances, nursing students have diffi-culty adjusting and using basic neurological-nursing knowledge and skills. Scenario-based concept-mapping teaching has been shown to promote the integration of complicated data, clarify related concepts, and increase the effectiveness of cognitive learning. To investigate the effect on the neurological-nursing cognition and learning attitude of nursing students of a scenario-based concept-mapping strategy that was integrated into the neurological nursing unit of a medical and surgical nursing course. This quasi-experimental study used experimental and control groups and a pre-test / post-test design. Sopho-more (2nd year) students in a four-year program at a university of science and technology in Taiwan were convenience sampled using cluster randomization that was run under SPSS 17.0. Concept-mapping lessons were used as the intervention for the experimental group. The control group followed traditional lesson plans only. The cognitive learning outcome was measured using the neurological nursing-learning examination. Both concept-mapping and traditional lessons significantly improved post-test neurological nursing learning scores (p learning attitude with regard to the teaching material. Furthermore, a significant number in the experimental group expressed the desire to add more lessons on anatomy, physiology, and pathology. These results indicate that this intervention strategy may help change the widespread fear and refusal of nursing students with regard to neurological lessons and may facilitate interest and positively affect learning in this important subject area. Integrating the concept-mapping strategy and traditional clinical-case lessons into neurological nursing lessons holds the potential to increase post-test scores significantly

  15. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  16. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  17. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  18. Evolutionary Awareness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Gorelik

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we advance the concept of “evolutionary awareness,” a metacognitive framework that examines human thought and emotion from a naturalistic, evolutionary perspective. We begin by discussing the evolution and current functioning of the moral foundations on which our framework rests. Next, we discuss the possible applications of such an evolutionarily-informed ethical framework to several domains of human behavior, namely: sexual maturation, mate attraction, intrasexual competition, culture, and the separation between various academic disciplines. Finally, we discuss ways in which an evolutionary awareness can inform our cross-generational activities—which we refer to as “intergenerational extended phenotypes”—by helping us to construct a better future for ourselves, for other sentient beings, and for our environment.

  19. Evolutionary macroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Macroecology focuses on ecological questions at broad spatial and temporal scales, providing a statistical description of patterns in species abundance, distribution and diversity. More recently, historical components of these patterns have begun to be investigated more deeply. We tentatively refer to the practice of explicitly taking species history into account, both analytically and conceptually, as ‘evolutionary macroecology’. We discuss how the evolutionary dimension can be incorporated into macroecology through two orthogonal and complementary data types: fossils and phylogenies. Research traditions dealing with these data have developed more‐or‐less independently over the last 20–30 years, but merging them will help elucidate the historical components of diversity gradients and the evolutionary dynamics of species’ traits. Here we highlight conceptual and methodological advances in merging these two research traditions and review the viewpoints and toolboxes that can, in combination, help address patterns and unveil processes at temporal and spatial macro‐scales.

  20. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......, they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N2O) and the resulting CO2-eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N2O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO2-eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  2. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  3. Measurement-Based LoS/NLoS Channel Modeling for Hot-Spot Urban Scenarios in UMTS Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiajing Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A measurement campaign is introduced for modeling radio channels with either line-of-sight (LoS or non-line-of-sight (NLoS connection between user equipment (UE and NodeB (NB in an operating universal mobile telecommunications system. A space-alternating generalized expectation-maximization (SAGE algorithm is applied to estimate the delays and the complex attenuations of multipath components from the obtained channel impulse responses. Based on a novel LoS detection method of multipath parameter estimates, channels are classified into LoS and NLoS categories. Deterministic models which are named “channel maps” and fading statistical models have been constructed for LoS and NLoS, respectively. In addition, statistics of new parameters, such as the distance between the NB and the UE in LoS/NLoS scenarios, the life-distance of LoS channel, the LoS existence probability per location and per NB, the power variation at LoS to NLoS transition and vice versa, and the transition duration, are extracted. These models are applicable for designing and performance evaluation of transmission techniques or systems used by distinguishing the LoS and NLoS channels.

  4. FttC-Based Fronthaul for 5G Dense/Ultra-Dense Access Network: Performance and Costs in Realistic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Mazzenga

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One distinctive feature of the next 5G systems is the presence of a dense/ultra-dense wireless access network with a large number of access points (or nodes at short distances from each other. Dense/ultra-dense access networks allow for providing very high transmission capacity to terminals. However, the deployment of dense/ultra-dense networks is slowed down by the cost of the fiber-based infrastructure required to connect radio nodes to the central processing units and then to the core network. In this paper, we investigate the possibility for existing FttC access networks to provide fronthaul capabilities for dense/ultra-dense 5G wireless networks. The analysis is realistic in that it is carried out considering an actual access network scenario, i.e., the Italian FttC deployment. It is assumed that access nodes are connected to the Cabinets and to the corresponding distributors by a number of copper pairs. Different types of cities grouped in terms of population have been considered. Results focus on fronthaul transport capacity provided by the FttC network and have been expressed in terms of the available fronthaul bit rate per node and of the achievable coverage.

  5. HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

  6. Impacts of silicon-based grass defences across trophic levels under both current and future atmospheric CO2 scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryalls, James M W; Hartley, Susan E; Johnson, Scott N

    2017-03-01

    Silicon (Si) has important functional roles in plants, including resistance against herbivores. Environmental change, such as increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2, may alter allocation to Si defences in grasses, potentially changing the feeding behaviour and performance of herbivores, which may in turn impact on higher trophic groups. Using Si-treated and untreated grasses (Phalaris aquatica) maintained under ambient (400 ppm) and elevated (640 and 800 ppm) CO2 concentrations, we show that Si reduced feeding by crickets (Acheta domesticus), resulting in smaller body mass. This, in turn, reduced predatory behaviour by praying mantids (Tenodera sinensis), which consequently performed worse. Despite elevated CO2 decreasing Si concentrations in P. aquatica, this reduction was not large enough to affect the feeding behaviour of crickets or their predator. Our results suggest that Si-based defences in plants have adverse impacts on both primary and secondary trophic taxa, and these are not likely to decline under future climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

  8. The two promising scenarios to explode core collapse supernovae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soker, Noam

    2017-10-01

    I compare to each other what I consider to be the two most promising scenarios to explode core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Both are based on the negative jet feedback mechanism (JFM). In the jittering jets scenario a collapsing core of a single slowly-rotating star can launch jets. The accretion disk or belt (a sub-Keplerian accretion flow concentrated toward the equatorial plane) that launches the jets is intermittent with varying directions of the axis. Instabilities, such as the standing accretion shock instability (SASI), lead to stochastic angular momentum variations that allow the formation of the intermittent accretion disks/belts. According to this scenario no failed CCSNe exist. According to the fixed axis scenario, the core of the progenitor star must be spun up during its late evolutionary phases, and hence all CCSNe are descendants of strongly interacting binary systems, most likely through a common envelope evolution (whether the companion survives or not). Due to the strong binary interaction, the axis of the accretion disk that is formed around the newly born neutron star has a more or less fixed direction. According to the fixed axis scenario, accretion disks/belts are not formed around the newly born neutron star of single stars; they rather end in failed CCSNe. I also raise the possibility that the jittering jets scenario operates for progenitors with initial mass of 8 {M}ȯ ≲ {M}{ZAMS}≲ 18 {M}ȯ , while the fixed axis scenario operates for {M}{ZAMS}≳ 18 {M}ȯ . For the first time these two scenarios are compared to each other, as well as to some aspects of the neutrino-driven explosion mechanism. These new comparisons further suggest that the JFM plays a major role in exploding massive stars.

  9. Wavelet-Based Methodology for Evolutionary Spectra Estimation of Nonstationary Typhoon Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-Dong Zhou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Closed-form expressions are proposed to estimate the evolutionary power spectral density (EPSD of nonstationary typhoon processes by employing the wavelet transform. Relying on the definition of the EPSD and the concept of the wavelet transform, wavelet coefficients of a nonstationary typhoon process at a certain time instant are interpreted as the Fourier transform of a new nonstationary oscillatory process, whose modulating function is equal to the modulating function of the nonstationary typhoon process multiplied by the wavelet function in time domain. Then, the EPSD of nonstationary typhoon processes is deduced in a closed form and is formulated as a weighted sum of the squared moduli of time-dependent wavelet functions. The weighted coefficients are frequency-dependent functions defined by the wavelet coefficients of the nonstationary typhoon process and the overlapping area of two shifted wavelets. Compared with the EPSD, defined by a sum of the squared moduli of the wavelets in frequency domain in literature, this paper provides an EPSD estimation method in time domain. The theoretical results are verified by uniformly modulated nonstationary typhoon processes and non-uniformly modulated nonstationary typhoon processes.

  10. Neuromodelling based on evolutionary robotics: on the importance of motor control for spatial attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigliotta, Onofrio; Bartolomeo, Paolo; Miglino, Orazio

    2015-09-01

    Mainstream approaches to modelling cognitive processes have typically focused on (1) reproducing their neural underpinning, without regard to sensory-motor systems and (2) producing a single, ideal computational model. Evolutionary robotics is an alternative possibility to bridge the gap between neural substrate and behavior by means of a sensory-motor apparatus, and a powerful tool to build a population of individuals rather than a single model. We trained 4 populations of neurorobots, equipped with a pan/tilt/zoom camera, and provided with different types of motor control in order to perform a cancellation task, often used to tap spatial cognition. Neurorobots' eye movements were controlled by (a) position, (b) velocity, (c) simulated muscles and (d) simulated muscles with fixed level of zoom. Neurorobots provided with muscle and velocity control showed better performances than those controlled in position. This is an interesting result since muscle control can be considered a particular type of position control. Finally, neurorobots provided with muscle control and zoom outperformed those without zooming ability.

  11. An adaptive evolutionary multi-objective approach based on simulated annealing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H; Landa-Silva, D

    2011-01-01

    A multi-objective optimization problem can be solved by decomposing it into one or more single objective subproblems in some multi-objective metaheuristic algorithms. Each subproblem corresponds to one weighted aggregation function. For example, MOEA/D is an evolutionary multi-objective optimization (EMO) algorithm that attempts to optimize multiple subproblems simultaneously by evolving a population of solutions. However, the performance of MOEA/D highly depends on the initial setting and diversity of the weight vectors. In this paper, we present an improved version of MOEA/D, called EMOSA, which incorporates an advanced local search technique (simulated annealing) and adapts the search directions (weight vectors) corresponding to various subproblems. In EMOSA, the weight vector of each subproblem is adaptively modified at the lowest temperature in order to diversify the search toward the unexplored parts of the Pareto-optimal front. Our computational results show that EMOSA outperforms six other well established multi-objective metaheuristic algorithms on both the (constrained) multi-objective knapsack problem and the (unconstrained) multi-objective traveling salesman problem. Moreover, the effects of the main algorithmic components and parameter sensitivities on the search performance of EMOSA are experimentally investigated.

  12. An Evolutionary Approach to the Soft Error Mitigation Technique for Cell-Based Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PARK, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a soft error mitigation algorithm that searches for the proper gate sizes within constrained gate-level designs. The individual gate sizing has an impact on the former optimization results and degrades the quality of the solution. In order to address this inefficiency, we utilize a modified topological sort that preserves the preceding local optima. Using a new local searcher, a hybrid genetic optimization technique for soft error mitigation is proposed. This evolutionary search algorithm has general genetic operators: the initialization of the population, crossover, mutation and selection operators. The local searcher consists of two subsequent heuristics. These search algorithms make the individual chromosome move to better search regions in a short time and then, the population acquires various candidates for the global optimum with the help of other genetic operators. The experiments show that the proposed genetic algorithm achieves an approximately 90% reduction in the number of soft errors when compared to the conventional greedy approach with at most 30% overhead for the area and critical path delay.

  13. Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lissovoi, Andrei

    settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...... exist more complex oscillations that cannot be tracked with a polynomial-size colony. MMAS and (μ+1) EA on Maze We analyse the behaviour of a (μ + 1) EA with genotype diversity on a dynamic fitness function Maze, extended to a finite-alphabet search space. We prove that the (μ + 1) EA is able to track...... the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε...

  14. Altruism, egoism, or neither: A cognitive-efficiency-based evolutionary biological perspective on helping behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Armin W

    2016-04-01

    I argue for differences in the cognitive efficiency of different psychologies underlying helping behavior, and present an account of the adaptive pressures that result from these differences. Specifically, I argue that organisms often face pressure to move away from only being egoistically motivated to help: non-egoistic organisms are often able to determine how to help other organisms more quickly and with less recourse to costly cognitive resources like concentration and attention. Furthermore, I also argue that, while these pressures away from pure egoism can lead to the evolution of altruists, they can also lead to the evolution of reciprocation-focused behaviorist helpers or even of reflex-driven helpers (who are neither altruists nor egoists). In this way, I seek to broaden the set of considerations typically taken into account when assessing the evolution of the psychology of helping behavior-which tend to be restricted to matters of reliability-and also try to make clearer the role of evolutionary biological considerations in the discussion of this apparently straightforwardly psychological phenomenon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-06-15

    Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

  16. Novel evolutionary lineages revealed in the Chaetothyriales (fungi based on multigene phylogenetic analyses and comparison of its secondary structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Réblová

    Full Text Available Cyphellophora and Phialophora (Chaetothyriales, Pezizomycota comprise species known from skin infections of humans and animals and from a variety of environmental sources. These fungi were studied based on the comparison of cultural and morphological features and phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear loci, i.e., internal transcribed spacer rDNA operon (ITS, large and small subunit nuclear ribosomal DNA (nuc28S rDNA, nuc18S rDNA, β-tubulin, DNA replication licensing factor (mcm7 and second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (rpb2. Phylogenetic results were supported by comparative analysis of ITS1 and ITS2 secondary structure of representatives of the Chaetothyriales and the identification of substitutions among the taxa analyzed. Base pairs with non-conserved, co-evolving nucleotides that maintain base pairing in the RNA transcript and unique evolutionary motifs in the ITS2 that characterize whole clades or individual taxa were mapped on predicted secondary structure models. Morphological characteristics, structural data and phylogenetic analyses of three datasets, i.e., ITS, ITS-β-tubulin and 28S-18S-rpb2-mcm7, define a robust clade containing eight species of Cyphellophora (including the type and six species of Phialophora. These taxa are now accommodated in the Cyphellophoraceae, a novel evolutionary lineage within the Chaetothyriales. Cyphellophora is emended and expanded to encompass species with both septate and nonseptate conidia formed on discrete, intercalary, terminal or lateral phialides. Six new combinations in Cyphellophora are proposed and a dichotomous key to species accepted in the genus is provided. Cyphellophora eugeniae and C. hylomeconis, which grouped in the Chaetothyriaceae, represent another novel lineage and are introduced as the type species of separate genera.

  17. Applying human factors principles to alert design increases efficiency and reduces prescribing errors in a scenario-based simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Zillich, Alan J; Melton, Brittany L; Russell, Scott A; Chen, Siying; Spina, Jeffrey R; Weiner, Michael; Johnson, Elizabette G; Daggy, Joanne K; McManus, M Sue; Hawsey, Jason M; Puleo, Anthony G; Doebbeling, Bradley N; Saleem, Jason J

    2014-10-01

    To apply human factors engineering principles to improve alert interface design. We hypothesized that incorporating human factors principles into alerts would improve usability, reduce workload for prescribers, and reduce prescribing errors. We performed a scenario-based simulation study using a counterbalanced, crossover design with 20 Veterans Affairs prescribers to compare original versus redesigned alerts. We redesigned drug-allergy, drug-drug interaction, and drug-disease alerts based upon human factors principles. We assessed usability (learnability of redesign, efficiency, satisfaction, and usability errors), perceived workload, and prescribing errors. Although prescribers received no training on the design changes, prescribers were able to resolve redesigned alerts more efficiently (median (IQR): 56 (47) s) compared to the original alerts (85 (71) s; p=0.015). In addition, prescribers rated redesigned alerts significantly higher than original alerts across several dimensions of satisfaction. Redesigned alerts led to a modest but significant reduction in workload (p=0.042) and significantly reduced the number of prescribing errors per prescriber (median (range): 2 (1-5) compared to original alerts: 4 (1-7); p=0.024). Aspects of the redesigned alerts that likely contributed to better prescribing include design modifications that reduced usability-related errors, providing clinical data closer to the point of decision, and displaying alert text in a tabular format. Displaying alert text in a tabular format may help prescribers extract information quickly and thereby increase responsiveness to alerts. This simulation study provides evidence that applying human factors design principles to medication alerts can improve usability and prescribing outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  18. Areal location of hazardous atmospheres simulation on toxic chemical release: A scenario-based case study from Ray, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2017-10-01

    Chemical accidents cause significant danger for residents living close to chemical facilities. For this reason, this study assessed the impacts of a simulated chemical accident on surrounding residents in the city of Ray, Iran. In this scenario-based case study in 2015, the Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) model was applied to simulate a toxic chemical release from a chlorine warehouse in Shourabad, Ray, Iran. The population of the area was calculated based on the latest census in Iran, 2011. The atmospheric variables included were wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity. We also included data on pollution source such as diameter, length and volume, and condition of chemicals. The simulation was repeated for each seasonal period. The simulated threat zones were mapped using Geographical Information System. The percentage of residents sustaining injuries and death was calculated using probit. The maximum and minimum simulated threat zones by chlorine release are during summer and winter at 8.8 and 6.4 kilometers respectively. The total affected population was estimated at approximately 30,000 people. The greater percent of injuries and death was estimated to occur in the winter and autumn, compared to summer and spring, because of greater climatic instability. The number of individuals affected by chlorine release in the spring, summer, autumn and winter at 8.3, 8.8, 7.6 and 6.4 kilometers, are estimated at 22,500, 25,000, 28,100 and 27,500, respectively. Populations located in hot and warm zones of toxic chemical releases should have access to medical resources. The results showed that relevant factors impact human vulnerability, and these should be examined to mitigate the harmful consequences of chemical accidents. Establishing a multi-level Emergency Response Program is also recommended in the area under study.

  19. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Aguirre

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN. Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  20. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-08-30

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  1. Comparison of 2 resident learning tools-interactive screen-based simulated case scenarios versus problem-based learning discussions: a prospective quasi-crossover cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shobana; Khanna, Ashish; Argalious, Maged; Kimatian, Stephen J; Mascha, Edward J; Makarova, Natalya; Nada, Eman M; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Firoozbakhsh, Farhad; Avitsian, Rafi

    2016-02-01

    Simulation-based learning is emerging as an alternative educational tool in this era of a relative shortfall of teaching anesthesiologists. The objective of the study is to assess whether screen-based (interactive computer simulated) case scenarios are more effective than problem-based learning discussions (PBLDs) in improving test scores 4 and 8 weeks after these interventions in anesthesia residents during their first neuroanesthesia rotation. Prospective, nonblinded quasi-crossover study. Cleveland Clinic. Anesthesiology residents. Two case scenarios were delivered from the Anesoft software as screen-based sessions, and parallel scripts were developed for 2 PBLDs. Each resident underwent both types of training sessions, starting with the PBLD session, and the 2 cases were alternated each month (ie, in 1 month, the screen-based intervention used case 1 and the PBLD used case 2, and vice versa for the next month). Test scores before the rotation (baseline), immediately after the rotation (4 weeks after the start of the rotation), and 8 weeks after the start of rotation were collected on each topic from each resident. The effect of training method on improvement in test scores was assessed using a linear mixed-effects model. Compared to the departmental standard of PBLD, the simulation method did not improve either the 4- or 8-week mean test scores (P = .41 and P = .40 for training method effect on 4- and 8-week scores, respectively). Resident satisfaction with the simulation module on a 5-point Likert scale showed subjective evidence of a positive impact on resident education. Screen-based simulators were not more effective than PBLD for education during the neuroanesthesia rotation in anesthesia residency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Topology optimization using bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization based on the element-free Galerkin method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobeiri, Vahid

    2016-03-01

    In this article, the bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization (BESO) method based on the element-free Galerkin (EFG) method is presented for topology optimization of continuum structures. The mathematical formulation of the topology optimization is developed considering the nodal strain energy as the design variable and the minimization of compliance as the objective function. The EFG method is used to derive the shape functions using the moving least squares approximation. The essential boundary conditions are enforced by the method of Lagrange multipliers. Several topology optimization problems are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Many issues related to topology optimization of continuum structures, such as chequerboard patterns and mesh dependency, are studied in the examples.

  3. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  4. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  5. Evolutionary mysteries in meiosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenormand, Thomas; Engelstädter, Jan; Johnston, Susan E; Wijnker, Erik; Haag, Christoph R

    2016-10-19

    Meiosis is a key event of sexual life cycles in eukaryotes. Its mechanistic details have been uncovered in several model organisms, and most of its essential features have received various and often contradictory evolutionary interpretations. In this perspective, we present an overview of these often 'weird' features. We discuss the origin of meiosis (origin of ploidy reduction and recombination, two-step meiosis), its secondary modifications (in polyploids or asexuals, inverted meiosis), its importance in punctuating life cycles (meiotic arrests, epigenetic resetting, meiotic asymmetry, meiotic fairness) and features associated with recombination (disjunction constraints, heterochiasmy, crossover interference and hotspots). We present the various evolutionary scenarios and selective pressures that have been proposed to account for these features, and we highlight that their evolutionary significance often remains largely mysterious. Resolving these mysteries will likely provide decisive steps towards understanding why sex and recombination are found in the majority of eukaryotes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Weird sex: the underappreciated diversity of sexual reproduction'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  6. Evolutionary Cost-Sensitive Extreme Learning Machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Zhang, David

    2017-12-01

    Conventional extreme learning machines (ELMs) solve a Moore-Penrose generalized inverse of hidden layer activated matrix and analytically determine the output weights to achieve generalized performance, by assuming the same loss from different types of misclassification. The assumption may not hold in cost-sensitive recognition tasks, such as face recognition-based access control system, where misclassifying a stranger as a family member may result in more serious disaster than misclassifying a family member as a stranger. Though recent cost-sensitive learning can reduce the total loss with a given cost matrix that quantifies how severe one type of mistake against another, in many realistic cases, the cost matrix is unknown to users. Motivated by these concerns, this paper proposes an evolutionary cost-sensitive ELM, with the following merits: 1) to the best of our knowledge, it is the first proposal of ELM in evolutionary cost-sensitive classification scenario; 2) it well addresses the open issue of how to define the cost matrix in cost-sensitive learning tasks; and 3) an evolutionary backtracking search algorithm is induced for adaptive cost matrix optimization. Experiments in a variety of cost-sensitive tasks well demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches, with about 5%-10% improvements.

  7. A review and experimental study on the application of classifiers and evolutionary algorithms in EEG-based brain-machine interface systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahernezhad-Javazm, Farajollah; Azimirad, Vahid; Shoaran, Maryam

    2018-04-01

    Considering the importance and the near-future development of noninvasive brain-machine interface (BMI) systems, this paper presents a comprehensive theoretical-experimental survey on the classification and evolutionary methods for BMI-based systems in which EEG signals are used. The paper is divided into two main parts. In the first part, a wide range of different types of the base and combinatorial classifiers including boosting and bagging classifiers and evolutionary algorithms are reviewed and investigated. In the second part, these classifiers and evolutionary algorithms are assessed and compared based on two types of relatively widely used BMI systems, sensory motor rhythm-BMI and event-related potentials-BMI. Moreover, in the second part, some of the improved evolutionary algorithms as well as bi-objective algorithms are experimentally assessed and compared. In this study two databases are used, and cross-validation accuracy (CVA) and stability to data volume (SDV) are considered as the evaluation criteria for the classifiers. According to the experimental results on both databases, regarding the base classifiers, linear discriminant analysis and support vector machines with respect to CVA evaluation metric, and naive Bayes with respect to SDV demonstrated the best performances. Among the combinatorial classifiers, four classifiers, Bagg-DT (bagging decision tree), LogitBoost, and GentleBoost with respect to CVA, and Bagging-LR (bagging logistic regression) and AdaBoost (adaptive boosting) with respect to SDV had the best performances. Finally, regarding the evolutionary algorithms, single-objective invasive weed optimization (IWO) and bi-objective nondominated sorting IWO algorithms demonstrated the best performances. We present a general survey on the base and the combinatorial classification methods for EEG signals (sensory motor rhythm and event-related potentials) as well as their optimization methods through the evolutionary algorithms. In addition

  8. Reconstructing evolutionary relationships from functional data: a consistent classification of organisms based on translation inhibition response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briones, Carlos; Manrubia, Susanna C; Lázaro, Ester; Lazcano, Antonio; Amils, Ricardo

    2005-02-01

    The last two decades have witnessed an unsurpassed effort aimed at reconstructing the history of life from the genetic information contained in extant organisms. The availability of many sequenced genomes has allowed the reconstruction of phylogenies from gene families and its comparison with traditional single-gene trees. However, the appearance of major discrepancies between both approaches questions whether horizontal gene transfer (HGT) has played a prominent role in shaping the topology of the Tree of Life. Recent attempts at solving this controversy and reaching a consensus tree combine molecular data with additional phylogenetic markers. Translation is a universal cellular function that involves a meaningful, highly conserved set of genes: both rRNA and r-protein operons have an undisputed phylogenetic value and rarely undergo HGT. Ribosomal function reflects the concerted expression of that genetic network and consequently yields information about the evolutionary paths followed by the organisms. Here we report on tree reconstruction using a measure of the performance of the ribosome: antibiotic sensitivity of protein synthesis. A large database has been used where 33 ribosomal systems belonging to the three major cellular lineages were probed against 38 protein synthesis inhibitors. Different definitions of distance between pairs of organisms have been explored, and the classical algorithm of bootstrap evaluation has been adapted to quantify the reliability of the reconstructions obtained. Our analysis returns a consistent phylogeny, where archaea are systematically affiliated to eukarya, in agreement with recent reconstructions which used information-processing systems. The integration of the information derived from relevant functional markers into current phylogenetic reconstructions might facilitate achieving a consensus Tree of Life.

  9. Investigating preferences for colour-shape combinations with gaze driven optimization method based on evolutionary algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim eHolmes

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Studying aesthetic preference is notoriously difficult because it targets individual experience. Eye movements provide a rich source of behavioural measures that directly reflect subjective choice. To determine individual preferences for simple composition rules we here use fixation duration as the fitness measure in a Gaze Driven Evolutionary Algorithm (GDEA, which has been used as a tool to identify aesthetic preferences (Holmes & Zanker, 2012. In the present study, the GDEA was used to investigate the preferred combination of colour and shape which have been promoted in the Bauhaus arts school. We used the same 3 shapes (square, circle, triangle used by Kandinsky (1923, with the 3 colour palette from the original experiment (A, an extended 7 colour palette (B, and 8 different shape orientation (C. Participants were instructed to look for their preferred circle, triangle or square in displays with 8 stimuli of different shapes, colours and rotations, in an attempt to test for a strong preference for red squares, yellow triangles and blue circles in such an unbiased experimental design and with an extended set of possible combinations. We Tested 6 participants extensively on the different conditions and found consistent preferences for individuals, but little evidence at the group level for preference consistent with Kandinsky’s claims, apart from some weak link between yellow and triangles. Our findings suggest substantial inter-individual differences in the presence of stable individual associations of colour and shapes, but also that these associations are robust within a single individual. These individual differences go some way towards challenging the claims of the universal preference for colour/shape combinations proposed by Kandinsky, but also indicate that a much larger sample size would be needed to confidently reject that hypothesis. Moreover, these experiments highlight the vast potential of the GDEA in experimental aesthetics

  10. Investigating preferences for color-shape combinations with gaze driven optimization method based on evolutionary algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Tim; Zanker, Johannes M

    2013-01-01

    Studying aesthetic preference is notoriously difficult because it targets individual experience. Eye movements provide a rich source of behavioral measures that directly reflect subjective choice. To determine individual preferences for simple composition rules we here use fixation duration as the fitness measure in a Gaze Driven Evolutionary Algorithm (GDEA), which has been demonstrated as a tool to identify aesthetic preferences (Holmes and Zanker, 2012). In the present study, the GDEA was used to investigate the preferred combination of color and shape which have been promoted in the Bauhaus arts school. We used the same three shapes (square, circle, triangle) used by Kandinsky (1923), with the three color palette from the original experiment (A), an extended seven color palette (B), and eight different shape orientation (C). Participants were instructed to look for their preferred circle, triangle or square in displays with eight stimuli of different shapes, colors and rotations, in an attempt to test for a strong preference for red squares, yellow triangles and blue circles in such an unbiased experimental design and with an extended set of possible combinations. We Tested six participants extensively on the different conditions and found consistent preferences for color-shape combinations for individuals, but little evidence at the group level for clear color/shape preference consistent with Kandinsky's claims, apart from some weak link between yellow and triangles. Our findings suggest substantial inter-individual differences in the presence of stable individual associations of color and shapes, but also that these associations are robust within a single individual. These individual differences go some way toward challenging the claims of the universal preference for color/shape combinations proposed by Kandinsky, but also indicate that a much larger sample size would be needed to confidently reject that hypothesis. Moreover, these experiments highlight the

  11. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  12. Robot Evolutionary Localization Based on Attentive Visual Short-Term Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Perdices

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cameras are one of the most relevant sensors in autonomous robots. However, two of their challenges are to extract useful information from captured images, and to manage the small field of view of regular cameras. This paper proposes implementing a dynamic visual memory to store the information gathered from a moving camera on board a robot, followed by an attention system to choose where to look with this mobile camera, and a visual localization algorithm that incorporates this visual memory. The visual memory is a collection of relevant task-oriented objects and 3D segments, and its scope is wider than the current camera field of view. The attention module takes into account the need to reobserve objects in the visual memory and the need to explore new areas. The visual memory is useful also in localization tasks, as it provides more information about robot surroundings than the current instantaneous image. This visual system is intended as underlying technology for service robot applications in real people’s homes. Several experiments have been carried out, both with simulated and real Pioneer and Nao robots, to validate the system and each of its components in office scenarios.

  13. Robot Evolutionary Localization Based on Attentive Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Julio; Perdices, Eduardo; Cañas, José M.

    2013-01-01

    Cameras are one of the most relevant sensors in autonomous robots. However, two of their challenges are to extract useful information from captured images, and to manage the small field of view of regular cameras. This paper proposes implementing a dynamic visual memory to store the information gathered from a moving camera on board a robot, followed by an attention system to choose where to look with this mobile camera, and a visual localization algorithm that incorporates this visual memory. The visual memory is a collection of relevant task-oriented objects and 3D segments, and its scope is wider than the current camera field of view. The attention module takes into account the need to reobserve objects in the visual memory and the need to explore new areas. The visual memory is useful also in localization tasks, as it provides more information about robot surroundings than the current instantaneous image. This visual system is intended as underlying technology for service robot applications in real people's homes. Several experiments have been carried out, both with simulated and real Pioneer and Nao robots, to validate the system and each of its components in office scenarios. PMID:23337333

  14. Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

    2017-05-23

    The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

  15. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  16. Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Nezahat; Muirhead, Colin R; Bochicchio, Francesco; Haylock, Richard G E

    2015-09-01

    The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high

  17. RODOS-based simulation of potential accident scenarios for emergency response management in the vicinity of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, H.; Gering, F.; Arnold, K.; Gerich, B.; Heinrich, G.; Welte, U.

    2016-09-15

    In the wake of the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) started to investigate the potential radiological consequences of a ''Fukushima-like'' accident in a German nuclear power plant and conducted appropriate simulations in 2012. Between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013, the first study was followed by a much more detailed and comprehensive investigation comprising more than 5000 case studies for three nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in Germany. Based on these results the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK) released a new recommendation in March 2014 including an expansion of the current emergency planning zones for nuclear power plants in Germany. The key results of this study with respect to the maximum dimensions of the affected areas where dose criteria may be exceeded are described below. The following results are based on the largest nuclear release scenario ''FKA'' (INES scale 7): - Threshold levels for deterministic effects and high doses (effective doses higher than 1000 mSv) can be reached or exceeded within a distance of about 3 km on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Evacuation'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 9 to 18 km (adults) and/or up to 14 to 24 km (infants) on average (the indicated interval describes the minimum and maximum levels of the median value at all three NPP sites). - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Sheltering'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 62 to 80 km (adults) and/or up to 91 to 114 km (infants) on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Stable iodine prophylaxis'' can be exceeded within a distance of up to 24 to 34 km (adults) and/or up to 148 to 161 km (infants and pregnant women) on average.

  18. Evolutionary institutionalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fürstenberg, Dr Kai

    Institutions are hard to define and hard to study. Long prominent in political science have been two theories: Rational Choice Institutionalism (RCI) and Historical Institutionalism (HI). Arising from the life sciences is now a third: Evolutionary Institutionalism (EI). Comparative strengths and weaknesses of these three theories warrant review, and the value-to-be-added by expanding the third beyond Darwinian evolutionary theory deserves consideration. Should evolutionary institutionalism expand to accommodate new understanding in ecology, such as might apply to the emergence of stability, and in genetics, such as might apply to political behavior? Core arguments are reviewed for each theory with more detailed exposition of the third, EI. Particular attention is paid to EI's gene-institution analogy; to variation, selection, and retention of institutional traits; to endogeneity and exogeneity; to agency and structure; and to ecosystem effects, institutional stability, and empirical limitations in behavioral genetics. RCI, HI, and EI are distinct but complementary. Institutional change, while amenable to rational-choice analysis and, retrospectively, to criticaljuncture and path-dependency analysis, is also, and importantly, ecological. Stability, like change, is an emergent property of institutions, which tend to stabilize after change in a manner analogous to allopatric speciation. EI is more than metaphorically biological in that institutional behaviors are driven by human behaviors whose evolution long preceded the appearance of institutions themselves.

  19. Applying evolutionary anthropology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Mhairi A; Lawson, David W

    2015-01-01

    Evolutionary anthropology provides a powerful theoretical framework for understanding how both current environments and legacies of past selection shape human behavioral diversity. This integrative and pluralistic field, combining ethnographic, demographic, and sociological methods, has provided new insights into the ultimate forces and proximate pathways that guide human adaptation and variation. Here, we present the argument that evolutionary anthropological studies of human behavior also hold great, largely untapped, potential to guide the design, implementation, and evaluation of social and public health policy. Focusing on the key anthropological themes of reproduction, production, and distribution we highlight classic and recent research demonstrating the value of an evolutionary perspective to improving human well-being. The challenge now comes in transforming relevance into action and, for that, evolutionary behavioral anthropologists will need to forge deeper connections with other applied social scientists and policy-makers. We are hopeful that these developments are underway and that, with the current tide of enthusiasm for evidence-based approaches to policy, evolutionary anthropology is well positioned to make a strong contribution. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Multi-board concept - a scenario based approach for supporting product quality and life cycle oriented design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robotham, Antony John; Hertzum, Morten

    2000-01-01

    This paper will describe the multi-board concept, which is a working approach for supporting life cycle oriented design and product quality. Aspects of this concept include construction of a common working environment where multiple display boards depict scenarios of the product life cycle, creat...

  1. Future trends in environmental impact of eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jawjit, W.; Kroeze, C.; Soontaranun, W.; Hordijk, L.

    2008-01-01

    This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of

  2. A new scenario based approach for designing driver support systems applied to the design of a lane change support system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tideman, Martijn; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Arem, Bart

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a new product design method that gives users a proactive role in the design process. Within a dedicated design environment, users are allowed to create their own designs and immediately test these in a wide variety of scenarios. By letting users realistically interact with their

  3. Soil retention of hexavalent chromium released from construction and demolition waste in a road-base-application scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butera, Stefania; Trapp, Stefan; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2015-01-01

    depth. However, in rigid climates and with high water infiltration through the road pavement, the reduction reaction could be so slow that Cr(VI) might migrate as deep as 200 cm under the road. The reaction parameters and the model can form the basis for systematically assessing under which scenarios Cr...

  4. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  5. Evolutionary Statistical Procedures

    CERN Document Server

    Baragona, Roberto; Poli, Irene

    2011-01-01

    This proposed text appears to be a good introduction to evolutionary computation for use in applied statistics research. The authors draw from a vast base of knowledge about the current literature in both the design of evolutionary algorithms and statistical techniques. Modern statistical research is on the threshold of solving increasingly complex problems in high dimensions, and the generalization of its methodology to parameters whose estimators do not follow mathematically simple distributions is underway. Many of these challenges involve optimizing functions for which analytic solutions a

  6. Total Integrative Evolutionary Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nedergaard Thomsen, Ole; Brier, Søren

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we outline a cybersemiotic foundation for the trend of pragmatics-based functional linguistics, Functional Discourse Grammar. Cybersemiotics is a substantial inter- and transdisciplinary semiotic theory which integrates, on the one hand, second-order cybernetics and autopoiesis theory...... and, on the other, Peircean biosemiotics. According to Cybersemiotics, language is primarily a creative process of total integrative evolutionary communication. It comprises three evolutionary stages: (1) biological reflexive languaging (the reflexive foundation of social coordination), (2......). In this inclusive hierarchy language games subsume the other stages, and thus human evolutionary communication is primarily a symbolic-conventional practice. It is intertwined with the practice of living, that is, with different life forms, including other forms of semiotic behavior. Together they form a coherent...

  7. Teaching evolutionary biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosana Tidon

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary Biology integrates several disciplines of Biology in a complex and interactive manner, where a deep understanding of the subject demands knowledge in diverse areas. Since this knowledge is often inaccessible to the majority of specialized professionals, including the teachers, we present some reflections in order to stimulate discussions aimed at the improvement of the conditions of education in this area. We examine the profile of evolutionary teaching in Brazil, based on questionnaires distributed to teachers in Secondary Education in the Federal District, on data provided by the "National Institute for Educational Studies and Research", and on information collected from teachers working in various regions of this country. Issues related to biological misconceptions, curriculum and didactic material are discussed, and some proposals are presented with the objective of aiding discussions aimed at the improvement of the teaching of evolutionary biology.

  8. Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

    2014-05-01

    The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

  9. Proteomics in evolutionary ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, B; Millar, A H

    2016-03-01

    Evolutionary ecologists are traditionally gene-focused, as genes propagate phenotypic traits across generations and mutations and recombination in the DNA generate genetic diversity required for evolutionary processes. As a consequence, the inheritance of changed DNA provides a molecular explanation for the functional changes associated with natural selection. A direct focus on proteins on the other hand, the actual molecular agents responsible for the expression of a phenotypic trait, receives far less interest from ecologists and evolutionary biologists. This is partially due to the central dogma of molecular biology that appears to define proteins as the 'dead-end of molecular information flow' as well as technical limitations in identifying and studying proteins and their diversity in the field and in many of the more exotic genera often favored in ecological studies. Here we provide an overview of a newly forming field of research that we refer to as 'Evolutionary Proteomics'. We point out that the origins of cellular function are related to the properties of polypeptide and RNA and their interactions with the environment, rather than DNA descent, and that the critical role of horizontal gene transfer in evolution is more about coopting new proteins to impact cellular processes than it is about modifying gene function. Furthermore, post-transcriptional and post-translational processes generate a remarkable diversity of mature proteins from a single gene, and the properties of these mature proteins can also influence inheritance through genetic and perhaps epigenetic mechanisms. The influence of post-transcriptional diversification on evolutionary processes could provide a novel mechanistic underpinning for elements of rapid, directed evolutionary changes and adaptations as observed for a variety of evolutionary processes. Modern state-of the art technologies based on mass spectrometry are now available to identify and quantify peptides, proteins, protein

  10. Evolutionary-based Design and Control of Geometry Aims for AMD-manufacturing of Ti-6Al-4V Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Mauritz; Baramsky, Nicolaj; Ewald, Ake; Emmelmann, Claus; Schlattmann, Josef

    Additive Metal Deposition (AMD) is an additive manufacturing process building parts based on a nozzle-fed powder by laser assisted solidification. The AMD technology offers unique advantages for the production of near net-shape parts. In contrast to the powder bed-based technologies it provides a high productivity grade. Today AMD lacks reproducible process strategies manufacturing large parts in narrow tolerances. The building height of a single layer and the geometrical shape of a whole part alter progressively with increasing part dimensions - consecutively leading to a higher effort in the manufacturing-process development for such parts. To reduce this effort, in this paper first an iterative identification of optimal process parameters is performed by following an evolutionary algorithm under varied BC. Based on the geometry-related parameter sets, tolerances are defined. The process strategies and tolerances are validated for a prototype application considering the defined quality aims. Finally the results are discussed and summarized in an a-priori process design guideline for AMD Ti6Al4V-parts.

  11. Transcriptome sequence-based phylogeny of chalcidoid wasps (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea) reveals a history of rapid radiations, convergence, and evolutionary success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ralph S; Niehuis, Oliver; Gunkel, Simon; Bläser, Marcel; Mayer, Christoph; Podsiadlowski, Lars; Kozlov, Alexey; Donath, Alexander; van Noort, Simon; Liu, Shanlin; Zhou, Xin; Misof, Bernhard; Heraty, John; Krogmann, Lars

    2017-12-13

    Chalcidoidea are a megadiverse group of mostly parasitoid wasps of major ecological and economical importance that are omnipresent in almost all extant terrestrial habitats. The timing and pattern of chalcidoid diversification is so far poorly understood and has left many important questions on the evolutionary history of Chalcidoidea unanswered. In this study, we infer the early divergence events within Chalcidoidea and address the question of whether or not ancestral chalcidoids were small egg parasitoids. We also trace the evolution of some key traits: jumping ability, development of enlarged hind femora, and associations with figs. Our phylogenetic inference is based on the analysis of 3,239 single-copy genes across 48 chalcidoid wasps and outgroups representatives. We applied an innovative a posteriori evaluation approach to molecular clock-dating based on nine carefully validated fossils, resulting in the first molecular clock-based estimation of deep Chalcidoidea divergence times. Our results suggest a late Jurassic origin of Chalcidoidea, with a first divergence of morphologically and biologically distinct groups in the early to mid Cretaceous, between 129 and 81 million years ago (mya). Diversification of most extant lineages happened rapidly after the Cretaceous in the early Paleogene, between 75 and 53 mya. The inferred Chalcidoidea tree suggests a transition from ancestral minute egg parasitoids to larger-bodied parasitoids of other host stages during the early history of chalcidoid evolution. The ability to jump evolved independently at least three times, namely in Eupelmidae, Encyrtidae, and Tanaostigmatidae. Furthermore, the large-bodied strongly sclerotized species with enlarged hind femora in Chalcididae and Leucospidae are not closely related. Finally, the close association of some chalcidoid wasps with figs, either as pollinators, or as inquilines/gallers or as parasitoids, likely evolved at least twice independently: in the Eocene, giving rise

  12. Evolutionary Explanations of Eating Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Kardum

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This article reviews several most important evolutionary mechanisms that underlie eating disorders. The first part clarifies evolutionary foundations of mental disorders and various mechanisms leading to their development. In the second part selective pressures and evolved adaptations causing contemporary epidemic of obesity as well as differences in dietary regimes and life-style between modern humans and their ancestors are described. Concerning eating disorders, a number of current evolutionary explanations of anorexia nervosa are presented together with their main weaknesses. Evolutionary explanations of eating disorders based on the reproductive suppression hypothesis and its variants derived from kin selection theory and the model of parental manipulation were elaborated. The sexual competition hypothesis of eating disorder, adapted to flee famine hypothesis as well as explanation based on the concept of social attention holding power and the need to belonging were also explained. The importance of evolutionary theory in modern conceptualization and research of eating disorders is emphasized.

  13. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EV-MOGA AND GODLIKE MULTIOBJECTIVE EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS FOR RISK BASED OPTIMAL POWER SCHEDULING OF A VIRTUAL POWER PLANT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahesh S. Narkhede

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt has been made in this article to compare the performances of two multiobjective evolutionary algorithms namely ev-MOGA and GODLIKE. The performances of both are evaluated on risk based optimal power scheduling of virtual power plant. The risk based scheduling is proposed as a conflicting bi objective optimization problem with increased number of durations of day. Both the algorithms are elaborated in detail. Results based on the performance analysis are depicted at the end.

  14. An Evolutionary, Agent-Based Model to Aid in Computer Intrusion Detection and Prevention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shargel, Ben; Bonabeau, Eric; Budynek, Julien; Gaudiano, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a realistic agent-based simulation model of hacker behavior. In the model, hacker scripts are generated using a simple but powerful hacker grammar that has the potential to cover all possible hacker scripts...

  15. A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

    2010-01-01

    Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus...... in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions...... in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies...

  16. Do you agree with the doctor's decision to continue treatment?: A scenario-based study of hospital nurses in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Francesca Ingravallo; Sara Sandroni; Laura D'Addio; Guido Miccinesi

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: A lack of social consensus on the duty to comply with a patient's request to forgo treatment was reported in Italy, but little is known about the nurses' attitudes regarding this issue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Questionnaire including two clinical scenarios regarding doctor's decision to not comply with a competent patient's request to forgo treatment was administered to all nurses (n = 487) of an Italian medium-sized hospital. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of nurses completed the ...

  17. Dynamic Power Dispatch Considering Electric Vehicles and Wind Power Using Decomposition Based Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyang Qu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The intermittency of wind power and the large-scale integration of electric vehicles (EVs bring new challenges to the reliability and economy of power system dispatching. In this paper, a novel multi-objective dynamic economic emission dispatch (DEED model is proposed considering the EVs and uncertainties of wind power. The total fuel cost and pollutant emission are considered as the optimization objectives, and the vehicle to grid (V2G power and the conventional generator output power are set as the decision variables. The stochastic wind power is derived by Weibull probability distribution function. Under the premise of meeting the system energy and user’s travel demand, the charging and discharging behavior of the EVs are dynamically managed. Moreover, we propose a two-step dynamic constraint processing strategy for decision variables based on penalty function, and, on this basis, the Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Decomposition (MOEA/D algorithm is improved. The proposed model and approach are verified by the 10-generator system. The results demonstrate that the proposed DEED model and the improved MOEA/D algorithm are effective and reasonable.

  18. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  19. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  20. Open Issues in Evolutionary Robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Fernando; Duarte, Miguel; Correia, Luís; Oliveira, Sancho Moura; Christensen, Anders Lyhne

    2016-01-01

    One of the long-term goals in evolutionary robotics is to be able to automatically synthesize controllers for real autonomous robots based only on a task specification. While a number of studies have shown the applicability of evolutionary robotics techniques for the synthesis of behavioral control, researchers have consistently been faced with a number of issues preventing the widespread adoption of evolutionary robotics for engineering purposes. In this article, we review and discuss the open issues in evolutionary robotics. First, we analyze the benefits and challenges of simulation-based evolution and subsequent deployment of controllers versus evolution on real robotic hardware. Second, we discuss specific evolutionary computation issues that have plagued evolutionary robotics: (1) the bootstrap problem, (2) deception, and (3) the role of genomic encoding and genotype-phenotype mapping in the evolution of controllers for complex tasks. Finally, we address the absence of standard research practices in the field. We also discuss promising avenues of research. Our underlying motivation is the reduction of the current gap between evolutionary robotics and mainstream robotics, and the establishment of evolutionary robotics as a canonical approach for the engineering of autonomous robots.

  1. iACP-GAEnsC: Evolutionary genetic algorithm based ensemble classification of anticancer peptides by utilizing hybrid feature space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbar, Shahid; Hayat, Maqsood; Iqbal, Muhammad; Jan, Mian Ahmad

    2017-06-01

    Cancer is a fatal disease, responsible for one-quarter of all deaths in developed countries. Traditional anticancer therapies such as, chemotherapy and radiation, are highly expensive, susceptible to errors and ineffective techniques. These conventional techniques induce severe side-effects on human cells. Due to perilous impact of cancer, the development of an accurate and highly efficient intelligent computational model is desirable for identification of anticancer peptides. In this paper, evolutionary intelligent genetic algorithm-based ensemble model, 'iACP-GAEnsC', is proposed for the identification of anticancer peptides. In this model, the protein sequences are formulated, using three different discrete feature representation methods, i.e., amphiphilic Pseudo amino acid composition, g-Gap dipeptide composition, and Reduce amino acid alphabet composition. The performance of the extracted feature spaces are investigated separately and then merged to exhibit the significance of hybridization. In addition, the predicted results of individual classifiers are combined together, using optimized genetic algorithm and simple majority technique in order to enhance the true classification rate. It is observed that genetic algorithm-based ensemble classification outperforms than individual classifiers as well as simple majority voting base ensemble. The performance of genetic algorithm-based ensemble classification is highly reported on hybrid feature space, with an accuracy of 96.45%. In comparison to the existing techniques, 'iACP-GAEnsC' model has achieved remarkable improvement in terms of various performance metrics. Based on the simulation results, it is observed that 'iACP-GAEnsC' model might be a leading tool in the field of drug design and proteomics for researchers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Mingwei, E-mail: wang_mingwei@yahoo.com.cn [Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanisation and Ecological Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062 (China); Che Yue, E-mail: yche@des.ecnu.edu.cn [Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanisation and Ecological Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062 (China); Yang Kai [Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanisation and Ecological Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062 (China); Wang Min; Xiong Lijun; Huang Yuchi [Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233 (China)

    2011-11-15

    To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40-45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO{sub 2} emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO{sub 2} emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO{sub 2} emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO{sub 2} emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district. - Highlights: > We employ the STIRPAT model to find out the main driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions. > Population, affluence, urbanisation level showed the positive effects on CO{sub 2} emissions. > We combined STIRPAT modelling with a participatory planning process.

  3. Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eda Ustaoglu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.

  4. Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Berkel, Derek B; Verburg, Peter H

    While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders' solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.

  5. Scalable computing for evolutionary genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Pjotr; Belhachemi, Dominique; Möller, Steffen; Smant, Geert

    2012-01-01

    Genomic data analysis in evolutionary biology is becoming so computationally intensive that analysis of multiple hypotheses and scenarios takes too long on a single desktop computer. In this chapter, we discuss techniques for scaling computations through parallelization of calculations, after giving a quick overview of advanced programming techniques. Unfortunately, parallel programming is difficult and requires special software design. The alternative, especially attractive for legacy software, is to introduce poor man's parallelization by running whole programs in parallel as separate processes, using job schedulers. Such pipelines are often deployed on bioinformatics computer clusters. Recent advances in PC virtualization have made it possible to run a full computer operating system, with all of its installed software, on top of another operating system, inside a "box," or virtual machine (VM). Such a VM can flexibly be deployed on multiple computers, in a local network, e.g., on existing desktop PCs, and even in the Cloud, to create a "virtual" computer cluster. Many bioinformatics applications in evolutionary biology can be run in parallel, running processes in one or more VMs. Here, we show how a ready-made bioinformatics VM image, named BioNode, effectively creates a computing cluster, and pipeline, in a few steps. This allows researchers to scale-up computations from their desktop, using available hardware, anytime it is required. BioNode is based on Debian Linux and can run on networked PCs and in the Cloud. Over 200 bioinformatics and statistical software packages, of interest to evolutionary biology, are included, such as PAML, Muscle, MAFFT, MrBayes, and BLAST. Most of these software packages are maintained through the Debian Med project. In addition, BioNode contains convenient configuration scripts for parallelizing bioinformatics software. Where Debian Med encourages packaging free and open source bioinformatics software through one central project

  6. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  7. Evolutionary stability and resistance to cheating in an indirect reciprocity model based on reputation

    CERN Document Server

    Martinez-Vaquero, Luis A

    2013-01-01

    Indirect reciprocity is one of the main mechanisms to explain the emergence and sustainment of altruism in societies. The standard approach to indirect reciprocity are reputation models. These are games in which players base their decisions on their opponent's reputation gained in past interactions with other players (moral assessment). The combination of actions and moral assessment leads to a large diversity of strategies, thus determining the stability of any of them against invasions by all the others is a difficult task. We use a variant of a previously introduced reputation-based model that let us systematically analyze all these invasions and determine which ones are successful. Accordingly we are able to identify the third-order strategies (those which, apart from the action, judge considering both the reputation of the donor and that of the recipient) that are evolutionarily stable. Our results reveal that if a strategy resists the invasion of any other one sharing its same moral assessment, it can r...

  8. A NOVEL SHAPE BASED FEATURE EXTRACTION TECHNIQUE FOR DIAGNOSIS OF LUNG DISEASES USING EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Bhuvaneswari, C.; Aruna, P.; Loganathan, D.

    2014-01-01

    Lung diseases are one of the most common diseases that affect the human community worldwide. When the diseases are not diagnosed they may lead to serious problems and may even lead to transience. As an outcome to assist the medical community this study helps in detecting some of the lung diseases specifically bronchitis, pneumonia and normal lung images. In this paper, to detect the lung diseases feature extraction is done by the proposed shape based methods, feature selection through the gen...

  9. A maximal clique based multiobjective evolutionary algorithm for overlapping community detection

    OpenAIRE

    Wen, Xuyun; Chen, Wei-Neng; Lin, Ying; Gu, Tianlong; Zhang, Huaxiang; Li, Yun; Yin, Yilong; Zhang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Detecting community structure has become one im-portant technique for studying complex networks. Although many community detection algorithms have been proposed, most of them focus on separated communities, where each node can be-long to only one community. However, in many real-world net-works, communities are often overlapped with each other. De-veloping overlapping community detection algorithms thus be-comes necessary. Along this avenue, this paper proposes a maxi-mal clique based multiob...

  10. The major synthetic evolutionary transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solé, Ricard

    2016-08-19

    Evolution is marked by well-defined events involving profound innovations that are known as 'major evolutionary transitions'. They involve the integration of autonomous elements into a new, higher-level organization whereby the former isolated units interact in novel ways, losing their original autonomy. All major transitions, which include the origin of life, cells, multicellular systems, societies or language (among other examples), took place millions of years ago. Are these transitions unique, rare events? Have they instead universal traits that make them almost inevitable when the right pieces are in place? Are there general laws of evolutionary innovation? In order to approach this problem under a novel perspective, we argue that a parallel class of evolutionary transitions can be explored involving the use of artificial evolutionary experiments where alternative paths to innovation can be explored. These 'synthetic' transitions include, for example, the artificial evolution of multicellular systems or the emergence of language in evolved communicating robots. These alternative scenarios could help us to understand the underlying laws that predate the rise of major innovations and the possibility for general laws of evolved complexity. Several key examples and theoretical approaches are summarized and future challenges are outlined.This article is part of the themed issue 'The major synthetic evolutionary transitions'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. Phylogenetic analysis of Cuculiformes (Aves) based on osteology, behavior and ecology: systematics and evolutionary implications

    OpenAIRE

    Posso, Sérgio R.; Donatelli, Reginaldo José [UNESP

    2006-01-01

    Têm-se notado vários estudos recentes em filogenia com os Cuculiformes, no entanto nestes trabalhos ainda há divergências. Apresenta-se aqui uma nova e ampla análise filogenética para os Cuculiformes com base em 250 caracteres da osteologia, comportamento e ecologia. Esta análise resultou em 18 cladogramas igualmente parcimoniosos (768 passos, IC = 0.4779, IR = 0.8080 e ICR = 0.3861). De acordo com o cladograma de consenso estrito se pode observar: a) o monofiletismo dos Cuculiformes; b) a or...

  12. An evolutionary computation based algorithm for calculating solar differential rotation by automatic tracking of coronal bright points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahamatnia, Ehsan; Dorotovič, Ivan; Fonseca, Jose M.; Ribeiro, Rita A.

    2016-03-01

    Developing specialized software tools is essential to support studies of solar activity evolution. With new space missions such as Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), solar images are being produced in unprecedented volumes. To capitalize on that huge data availability, the scientific community needs a new generation of software tools for automatic and efficient data processing. In this paper a prototype of a modular framework for solar feature detection, characterization, and tracking is presented. To develop an efficient system capable of automatic solar feature tracking and measuring, a hybrid approach combining specialized image processing, evolutionary optimization, and soft computing algorithms is being followed. The specialized hybrid algorithm for tracking solar features allows automatic feature tracking while gathering characterization details about the tracked features. The hybrid algorithm takes advantages of the snake model, a specialized image processing algorithm widely used in applications such as boundary delineation, image segmentation, and object tracking. Further, it exploits the flexibility and efficiency of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a stochastic population based optimization algorithm. PSO has been used successfully in a wide range of applications including combinatorial optimization, control, clustering, robotics, scheduling, and image processing and video analysis applications. The proposed tool, denoted PSO-Snake model, was already successfully tested in other works for tracking sunspots and coronal bright points. In this work, we discuss the application of the PSO-Snake algorithm for calculating the sidereal rotational angular velocity of the solar corona. To validate the results we compare them with published manual results performed by an expert.

  13. Evolutionary Game Theory-Based Evaluation of P2P File-Sharing Systems in Heterogeneous Environments

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    Yusuke Matsuda

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Peer-to-Peer (P2P file sharing is one of key technologies for achieving attractive P2P multimedia social networking. In P2P file-sharing systems, file availability is improved by cooperative users who cache and share files. Note that file caching carries costs such as storage consumption and processing load. In addition, users have different degrees of cooperativity in file caching and they are in different surrounding environments arising from the topological structure of P2P networks. With evolutionary game theory, this paper evaluates the performance of P2P file sharing systems in such heterogeneous environments. Using micro-macro dynamics, we analyze the impact of the heterogeneity of user selfishness on the file availability and system stability. Further, through simulation experiments with agent-based dynamics, we reveal how other aspects, for example, synchronization among nodes and topological structure, affect the system performance. Both analytical and simulation results show that the environmental heterogeneity contributes to the file availability and system stability.

  14. Cladistical study and assessment of evolutionary process based on morphological data in genus of Ferula L. in Iran

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    Mohammad Reza Kanani

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The genus Ferula L. belongs to Apiaceae family and tribe Scandiceae with Persian name Koma, Barijeh and Anghouzeh consisting of about 170-187 species worldwide. This genus is the largest member of Apiaceae in Asia and ranks third place in the world. In this study, for the first time, phylogenetical position of the genus of Iranian Ferula s. l. were investigated through cladistics analyses of morphological data based on maximum parsimony method by Win-PAUP* 4.0b10 software. In addition, evolutionary process of the 33 morphological characters of this genus was examined by MacClade 3.01 Macintosh OS program. Most of the investigated species were collected and determined from wild habitats. Comparison and evaluation of consensus tree of molecular and morphological data showed that 2 species of Iranian Leutea Genus must be transferred to Ferula genus. Although Dorema genus was placed in Ferula clade, verified transfer to Ferula needs more investigations. Also, according to this two comb nova. Ferula nematoloba (Rech. f. Kanani and Ferula avicennia (Mozaff. Kanani were added to Iranian Ferula.

  15. Evolutionary stability and resistance to cheating in an indirect reciprocity model based on reputation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Vaquero, Luis A.; Cuesta, José A.

    2013-05-01

    Indirect reciprocity is one of the main mechanisms to explain the emergence and sustainment of altruism in societies. The standard approach to indirect reciprocity is reputation models. These are games in which players base their decisions on their opponent's reputation gained in past interactions with other players (moral assessment). The combination of actions and moral assessment leads to a large diversity of strategies; thus determining the stability of any of them against invasions by all the others is a difficult task. We use a variant of a previously introduced reputation-based model that let us systematically analyze all these invasions and determine which ones are successful. Accordingly, we are able to identify the third-order strategies (those which, apart from the action, judge considering both the reputation of the donor and that of the recipient) that are evolutionarily stable. Our results reveal that if a strategy resists the invasion of any other one sharing its same moral assessment, it can resist the invasion of any other strategy. However, if actions are not always witnessed, cheaters (i.e., individuals with a probability of defecting regardless of the opponent's reputation) have a chance to defeat the stable strategies for some choices of the probabilities of cheating and of being witnessed. Remarkably, by analyzing this issue with adaptive dynamics we find that whether an honest population resists the invasion of cheaters is determined by a Hamilton-like rule, with the probability that the cheat is discovered playing the role of the relatedness parameter.

  16. Evolutionary relationships within the lamioid tribe Synandreae (Lamiaceae based on multiple low-copy nuclear loci

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    Tilottama Roy

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The subfamily Lamioideae (Lamiaceae comprises ten tribes, of which only Stachydeae and Synandreae include New World members. Previous studies have investigated the phylogenetic relationships among the members of Synandreae based on plastid and nuclear ribosomal DNA loci. In an effort to re-examine the phylogenetic relationships within Synandreae, the current study incorporates data from four low-copy nuclear loci, PHOT1, PHOT2, COR, and PPR. Our results confirm previous studies based on chloroplast and nuclear ribosomal markers in supporting the monophyly of tribe Synandreae, as well as sister relationships between Brazoria and Warnockia, and between that pair of genera and a monophyletic Physostegia. However, we observe incongruence in the relationships of Macbridea and Synandra. The placement of Synandreae within Lamioideae is poorly resolved and incongruent among different analyses, and the sister group of Synandreae remains enigmatic. Comparison of the colonization and migration patterns corroborates a single colonization of the New World by Synandreae during the Late Miocene/Tortonian age. This is in contrast to the only other lamioid tribe that includes New World members, Stachydeae, which colonized the New World at least twice—during the mid-Miocene and Pliocene. Edaphic conditions and intolerance of soil acidity may be factors that restricted the distribution of most genera of Synandreae to southeastern and south–central North America, whereas polyploidy could have increased the colonizing capability of the more wide-ranging genus, Physostegia.

  17. Evolutionary relationships within the lamioid tribe Synandreae (Lamiaceae) based on multiple low-copy nuclear loci

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Tilottama; Catlin, Nathan S.; Garner, Drake M.G.; Cantino, Philip D.; Scheen, Anne-Cathrine

    2016-01-01

    The subfamily Lamioideae (Lamiaceae) comprises ten tribes, of which only Stachydeae and Synandreae include New World members. Previous studies have investigated the phylogenetic relationships among the members of Synandreae based on plastid and nuclear ribosomal DNA loci. In an effort to re-examine the phylogenetic relationships within Synandreae, the current study incorporates data from four low-copy nuclear loci, PHOT1, PHOT2, COR, and PPR. Our results confirm previous studies based on chloroplast and nuclear ribosomal markers in supporting the monophyly of tribe Synandreae, as well as sister relationships between Brazoria and Warnockia, and between that pair of genera and a monophyletic Physostegia. However, we observe incongruence in the relationships of Macbridea and Synandra. The placement of Synandreae within Lamioideae is poorly resolved and incongruent among different analyses, and the sister group of Synandreae remains enigmatic. Comparison of the colonization and migration patterns corroborates a single colonization of the New World by Synandreae during the Late Miocene/Tortonian age. This is in contrast to the only other lamioid tribe that includes New World members, Stachydeae, which colonized the New World at least twice—during the mid-Miocene and Pliocene. Edaphic conditions and intolerance of soil acidity may be factors that restricted the distribution of most genera of Synandreae to southeastern and south–central North America, whereas polyploidy could have increased the colonizing capability of the more wide-ranging genus, Physostegia. PMID:27547537

  18. Detecting brain dynamics during resting state: a tensor based evolutionary clustering approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-sharoa, Esraa; Al-khassaweneh, Mahmood; Aviyente, Selin

    2017-08-01

    Human brain is a complex network with connections across different regions. Understanding the functional connectivity (FC) of the brain is important both during resting state and task; as disruptions in connectivity patterns are indicators of different psychopathological and neurological diseases. In this work, we study the resting state functional connectivity networks (FCNs) of the brain from fMRI BOLD signals. Recent studies have shown that FCNs are dynamic even during resting state and understanding the temporal dynamics of FCNs is important for differentiating between different conditions. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms to track the dynamic formation and dissociation of FCNs of the brain during resting state. In this paper, we propose a two step tensor based community detection algorithm to identify and track the brain network community structure across time. First, we introduce an information-theoretic function to reduce the dynamic FCN and identify the time points that are similar topologically to combine them into a tensor. These time points will be used to identify the different FC states. Second, a tensor based spectral clustering approach is developed to identify the community structure of the constructed tensors. The proposed algorithm applies Tucker decomposition to the constructed tensors and extract the orthogonal factor matrices along the connectivity mode to determine the common subspace within each FC state. The detected community structure is summarized and described as FC states. The results illustrate the dynamic structure of resting state networks (RSNs), including the default mode network, somatomotor network, subcortical network and visual network.

  19. Using Comprehensive Science-based Disaster Scenarios to Support Seismic Safety Policy: A Case Study in Los Angeles, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.

    2014-12-01

    In 2014, the USGS entered a technical assistance agreement with the City of Los Angeles to apply the results of the 2008 ShakeOut Scenario of a M7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault to develop a comprehensive plan to increase the seismic resilience of the City. The results of this project are to be submitted to the Mayor of Los Angeles at the Great ShakeOut on October 16, 2014. The ShakeOut scenario detailed how the expected cascade of failures in a big earthquake could lead to significant delays in disaster recovery that could create financial losses that greatly exceed the direct losses in the event. The goal of the seismic resilience plan is to: protect the lives of residents during earthquakes improve the capacity of the City to respond to the earthquake prepare the City to recover quickly after the earthquake so as to protect the economy of the City and all of southern California To accomplish these goals, the project addresses three areas of seismic vulnerability that were identified in the original ShakeOut Scenario: Pre-1980 buildings that present an unacceptable risk to the lives of residents, including "non-ductile reinforced concrete," and "soft-first-story" buildings Water system infrastructure (including impact on firefighting capability) Communications infrastructure The critical science needed to support policy decisions is to understand the probable consequences to the regional long-term economy caused by decisions to undertake (or not) different levels of mitigation. The arguments against mitigation are the immediate financial costs, so a better understanding of the eventual benefit is required. However, the direct savings rarely justify the mitigation costs, so the arguments in favor of mitigation are driven by the potential for cascading failures and the potential to trigger the type of long term reduction in population and economic activity that has occurred in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina.

  20. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

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    Kevin Ten Haaf

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST results indicate that computed tomography (CT lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria.This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP, Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars, and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars per life-year gained