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Sample records for event tree analysis

  1. Dynamic Event Tree Analysis Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. A. Kinoshita; A. Naviglio

    2013-09-01

    Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics is not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (D-PRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed in a high modular and pluggable way in order to enable easy integration of different programming languages (i.e., C++, Python) and coupling with other application including the ones based on the MOOSE framework, developed by INL as well. RAVEN performs two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, RAVEN also models stochastic events, such as components failures, and performs uncertainty quantification. Such stochastic modeling is employed by using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This paper focuses on the first task and shows how it is possible to perform the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, the Dynamic PRA analysis, using Dynamic Event Tree, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out scenario is presented.

  2. Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

    2015-04-01

    Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the

  3. Simplified containment event tree analysis for the Sequoyah Ice Condenser containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeder, J.A.; Pafford, D.J. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA))

    1990-12-01

    An evaluation of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) ice condenser containment was performed. In this evaluation, simplified containment event trees (SCETs) were developed that utilized the vast storehouse of information generated by the NRC's Draft NUREG-1150 effort. Specifically, the computer programs and data files produced by the NUREG-1150 analysis of Sequoyah were used to electronically generate SCETs, as opposed to the NUREG-1150 accident progression event trees (APETs). This simplification was performed to allow graphic depiction of the SCETs in typical event tree format, which facilitates their understanding and use. SCETs were developed for five of the seven plant damage state groups (PDSGs) identified by the NUREG-1150 analyses, which includes: both short- and long-term station blackout sequences (SBOs), transients, loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), and anticipated transient without scram (ATWS). Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and event-V PDSGs were not analyzed because of their containment bypass nature. After being benchmarked with the APETs, in terms of containment failure mode and risk, the SCETs were used to evaluate a number of potential containment modifications. The modifications were examined for their potential to mitigate or prevent containment failure from hydrogen burns or direct impingement on the containment by the core, (both factors identified as significant contributors to risk in the NUREG-1150 Sequoyah analysis). However, because of the relatively low baseline risk postulated for Sequoyah (i.e., 12 person-rems per reactor year), none of the potential modifications appear to be cost effective. 15 refs., 10 figs. , 17 tabs.

  4. Analysis of unintended events in hospitals : inter-rater reliability of constructing causal trees and classifying root causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, M.; Janssen, J.; Vet, R. de; Zwaan, L.; Groenewegen, P.P.; Timmermans, D.

    2009-01-01

    Background. Root cause analysis is a method to examine causes of unintended events. PRISMA (Prevention and Recovery Information System for Monitoring and Analysis) is a root cause analysis tool. With PRISMA, events are described in causal trees and root causes are subsequently classified with the

  5. Analysis of unintended events in hospitals: inter-rater reliability of constructing causal trees and classifying root causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, M.; Janssen, J.; Vet, de H.C.W.; Zwaan, L.; Timmermans, D.R.M.; Groenewegen, P.P.; Wagner, C.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Root cause analysis is a method to examine causes of unintended events. PRISMA (Prevention and Recovery Information System for Monitoring and Analysis: is a root cause analysis tool. With PRISMA, events are described in causal trees and root causes are subsequently classified with the

  6. Analysis of unintended events in hospitals: inter-rater reliability of constructing causal trees and classifying root causes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, M.; Janssen, J.; Vet, R. de; Zwaan, L.; Timmermans, D.; Groenewegen, P.; Wagner, C.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Root cause analysis is a method to examine causes of unintended events. PRISMA (Prevention and Recovery Information System for Monitoring and Analysis) is a root cause analysis tool. With PRISMA, events are described in causal trees and root causes are subsequently classified with the

  7. Event and fault tree model for reliability analysis of the greek research reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albuquerque, Tob R.; Guimaraes, Antonio C.F.; Moreira, Maria de Lourdes, E-mail: atalbuquerque@ien.gov.br, E-mail: btony@ien.gov.br, E-mail: malu@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Fault trees and event trees are widely used in industry to model and to evaluate the reliability of safety systems. Detailed analyzes in nuclear installations require the combination of these two techniques. This work uses the methods of fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) to perform the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in research reactors. The PSA according to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is divided into Level 1, Level 2 and level 3. At Level 1, conceptually safety systems act to prevent the accident, at Level 2, the accident occurred and seeks to minimize the consequences, known as stage management of the accident, and at Level 3 are determined consequences. This paper focuses on Level 1 studies, and searches through the acquisition of knowledge consolidation of methodologies for future reliability studies. The Greek Research Reactor, GRR - 1, was used as a case example. The LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) was chosen as the initiating event and from there were developed the possible accident sequences, using event tree, which could lead damage to the core. Furthermore, for each of the affected systems, the possible accidents sequences were made fault tree and evaluated the probability of each event top of the FT. The studies were conducted using a commercial computational tool SAPHIRE. The results thus obtained, performance or failure to act of the systems analyzed were considered satisfactory. This work is directed to the Greek Research Reactor due to data availability. (author)

  8. Investigation of Lab Fire Prevention Management System of Combining Root Cause Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process with Event Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Chan Shih

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposed a new approach, combining root cause analysis (RCA, analytic hierarchy process (AHP, and event tree analysis (ETA in a loop to systematically evaluate various laboratory safety prevention strategies. First, 139 fire accidents were reviewed to identify the root causes and draw out prevention strategies. Most fires were caused due to runaway reactions, operation error and equipment failure, and flammable material release. These mostly occurred in working places of no prompt fire protection. We also used AHP to evaluate the priority of these strategies and found that chemical fire prevention strategy is the most important control element, and strengthening maintenance and safety inspection intensity is the most important action. Also together with our surveys results, we proposed that equipment design is also critical for fire prevention. Therefore a technical improvement was propounded: installing fire detector, automatic sprinkler, and manual extinguisher in the lab hood as proactive fire protections. ETA was then used as a tool to evaluate laboratory fire risks. The results indicated that the total risk of a fire occurring decreases from 0.0351 to 0.0042 without/with equipment taking actions. Establishing such system can make Environment, Health and Safety (EH&S office not only analyze and prioritize fire prevention policies more practically, but also demonstrate how effective protective equipment improvement can achieve and the probabilities of the initiating event developing into a serious accident or controlled by the existing safety system.

  9. Modification of the SAS4A Safety Analysis Code for Integration with the ADAPT Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Framework.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    It is difficult to assess the consequences of a transient in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) using traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods, as numerous safety-related sys- tems have passive characteristics. Often there is significant dependence on the value of con- tinuous stochastic parameters rather than binary success/failure determinations. One form of dynamic PRA uses a system simulator to represent the progression of a transient, tracking events through time in a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET). In order to function in a DDET environment, a simulator must have characteristics that make it amenable to changing physical parameters midway through the analysis. The SAS4A SFR system analysis code did not have these characteristics as received. This report describes the code modifications made to allow dynamic operation as well as the linking to a Sandia DDET driver code. A test case is briefly described to demonstrate the utility of the changes.

  10. Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Kemal Özfirat

    2017-09-27

    Sep 27, 2017 ... These initiating events are hoist rope fatigue and breaking, diamond .... blasting machines, resin filling, restoring machines and transport machines. Therefore, hazards are present in all phases due to working with heavy machinery equipment and ... cutter machine is not adjusted according to the type of the.

  11. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Medford, G.T. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied.

  12. Assembly and analysis of a male sterile rubber tree mitochondrial genome reveals DNA rearrangement events and a novel transcript.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearman, Jeremy R; Sangsrakru, Duangjai; Ruang-Areerate, Panthita; Sonthirod, Chutima; Uthaipaisanwong, Pichahpuk; Yoocha, Thippawan; Poopear, Supannee; Theerawattanasuk, Kanikar; Tragoonrung, Somvong; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke

    2014-02-10

    The rubber tree, Hevea brasiliensis, is an important plant species that is commercially grown to produce latex rubber in many countries. The rubber tree variety BPM 24 exhibits cytoplasmic male sterility, inherited from the variety GT 1. We constructed the rubber tree mitochondrial genome of a cytoplasmic male sterile variety, BPM 24, using 454 sequencing, including 8 kb paired-end libraries, plus Illumina paired-end sequencing. We annotated this mitochondrial genome with the aid of Illumina RNA-seq data and performed comparative analysis. We then compared the sequence of BPM 24 to the contigs of the published rubber tree, variety RRIM 600, and identified a rearrangement that is unique to BPM 24 resulting in a novel transcript containing a portion of atp9. The novel transcript is consistent with changes that cause cytoplasmic male sterility through a slight reduction to ATP production efficiency. The exhaustive nature of the search rules out alternative causes and supports previous findings of novel transcripts causing cytoplasmic male sterility.

  13. A study of MORT logical tree and Tripod Beta methods in event occurrence causality analysis using hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Alizadeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this study was to compare MORT and Tripod Beta methods, using a hierarchical model, in order to choose the best technique to analyze an event in an organization.  .Material and Method: In this study, a critical event was selected and the causes of the event were identified, employing MORT and Tripod Beta capabilities. Following the identification of the event causes, the aforementioned techniques were weighted and compared considering selected criteria and AHP hierarchical method.  .Result: Relative weights of the selected criteria were calculated. The ability to identify the event causes with the weight of 0.315 had the greatest weight. The event analysis cost (0.24, required time to analyze the event (0.146, technical experts (0.125, training for implementation (0.24, and availability of the analytical software (0.07 had obtained the subsequent weights, respectively.  .Conclusion: Analytic hierarchy process is an efficient and practical method to prioritize the choices considering the study objectives and criteria. As scientific method, Analytic hierarchy process helps the experts in decision-making. Considering the selected criteria, findings in this study showed that Tripod Beta technique (with a weight of 0.563 is superior to MORT technique (with a weight of 0.437.

  14. Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sen, Ramazan Sonat [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua Joseph [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the

  15. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA); MacIntyre, A.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)

    1990-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  16. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); MacIntyre, A.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1991-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  17. Fault tree analysis for maintenance needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halme, Jari; Aikala, Antti

    2012-05-01

    One of the key issues in maintenance is to allocate focus and resources to those components and subsystems which are the most unreliable and prone to failures. In industrial systems, fault tree analysis technique can be used to study the reliability of the complex systems and their substructures. In this paper a fault tree application for analyzing online the current reliability and failure probability for maintenance purposes is presented. The analysis is utilizing data connected to the fault tree root causes and events. An indication of an anomaly case, service action, cumulative loading, etc., or just time passed or service hour counter level can trigger a new calculation of current probabilities of the fault tree events and subsystem interactions. In proposed approach real time, dynamic information from several available data sources and different measurement are interconnected to each fault tree event and root cause. There is also formulated an active, constantly updated link between the fault tree events and maintenance databases for the maintenance decision support, and to keep the analysis up to date. Typically top event probability is evaluated based on updated root cause probabilities and lower level events. At the industrial plant level an identification of a failure in a component event defined within a constructed and operatively existing fault tree explicitly means that the event's failure probability is one. By utilizing this indication, the most probable failure branches through the fault tree sub events to root causes can be identified and printed as a valid check list for maintenance purposes to focus service actions first to those fault tree branches most probable causing the failure. Respectively, during the checks, service actions, etc., components, especially those within the critical branches, detected as healthy can be a updated as having zero failure probability. This information can be used to further update the fault tree and produce

  18. Extending Performance and Evaluating Risks of PV Systems Failure Using a Fault Tree and Event Tree Approach: Analysis of the Possible Application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colli A.

    2012-06-03

    Performance and reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems are important issues in the overall evaluation of a PV plant and its components. While performance is connected to the amount of energy produced by the PV installation in the working environmental conditions, reliability impacts the availability of the system to produce the expected amount of energy. In both cases, the evaluation should be done considering information and data coming from indoor as well as outdoor tests. In this paper a way of re-thinking performance, giving it a probabilistic connotation, and connecting the two concepts of performance and reliability is proposed. The paper follows a theoretical approach and discusses the way to obtaining such information, facing benefits and problems. The proposed probabilistic performance accounts for the probability of the system to function correctly, thus passing through the complementary evaluation of the probability of system malfunctions and consequences. Scenarios have to be identified where the system is not functioning properly or at all. They are expected to be combined in a probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) based approach, providing not only the required probability, but also being capable of giving a prioritization of the risks and the most dominant scenario associated to a specific situation. This approach can offer the possibility to highlight the most critical parts of a PV system, as well as providing support in design activities identifying weak connections.

  19. Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis | Tyagi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Research in conventional fault tree analysis (FTA) is based mainly on failure probability of basic events, which uses classical probability distributions for the failure probability of basic events. In the present paper the probabilistic consideration of basic events is replaced by possibilities, thereby leading to fuzzy fault tree ...

  20. Human factors analysis and design methods for nuclear waste retrieval systems. Volume III. User's guide for the computerized event-tree analysis technique. [CETAT computer program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, S.M.; Deretsky, Z.

    1980-08-01

    This document provides detailed instructions for using the Computerized Event-Tree Analysis Technique (CETAT), a program designed to assist a human factors analyst in predicting event probabilities in complex man-machine configurations found in waste retrieval systems. The instructions contained herein describe how to (a) identify the scope of a CETAT analysis, (b) develop operator performance data, (c) enter an event-tree structure, (d) modify a data base, and (e) analyze event paths and man-machine system configurations. Designed to serve as a tool for developing, organizing, and analyzing operator-initiated event probabilities, CETAT simplifies the tasks of the experienced systems analyst by organizing large amounts of data and performing cumbersome and time consuming arithmetic calculations. The principal uses of CETAT in the waste retrieval development project will be to develop models of system reliability and evaluate alternative equipment designs and operator tasks. As with any automated technique, however, the value of the output will be a function of the knowledge and skill of the analyst using the program.

  1. RAVEN. Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

  2. RAVEN: Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrea Alfonsi; Cristian Rabiti; Diego Mandelli; Joshua Cogliati; Robert Kinoshita

    2013-07-01

    Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

  3. Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, Timothy A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williams, R. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Instrumentation and control of nuclear power is transforming from analog to modern digital assets. These control systems perform key safety and security functions. This transformation is occurring in new plant designs as well as in the existing fleet of plants as the operation of those plants is extended to 60 years. This transformation introduces new and unknown issues involving both digital asset induced safety issues and security issues. Traditional nuclear power risk assessment tools and cyber security assessment methods have not been modified or developed to address the unique nature of cyber failure modes and of cyber security threat vulnerabilities. iii This Lab-Directed Research and Development project has developed a dynamic cyber-risk in- formed tool to facilitate the analysis of unique cyber failure modes and the time sequencing of cyber faults, both malicious and non-malicious, and impose those cyber exploits and cyber faults onto a nuclear power plant accident sequence simulator code to assess how cyber exploits and cyber faults could interact with a plants digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) system and defeat or circumvent a plants cyber security controls. This was achieved by coupling an existing Sandia National Laboratories nuclear accident dynamic simulator code with a cyber emulytics code to demonstrate real-time simulation of cyber exploits and their impact on automatic DI&C responses. Studying such potential time-sequenced cyber-attacks and their risks (i.e., the associated impact and the associated degree of difficulty to achieve the attack vector) on accident management establishes a technical risk informed framework for developing effective cyber security controls for nuclear power.

  4. Tree-ring dated landslide movements and seismic events in southwestern Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Paul E.; O'Neill, J. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Because many tree species can live for several centuries or longer (Brown 1996), tree-ring analysis can be a valuable tool to date geomorphic events such as landslides, earthquakes, and avalanches in regions lacking long historical records. Typically, a catastrophic landslide will destroy all trees on the landslide, but trees on slower moving landslides may survive. For example, the Slumgullion earthflow, in southwestern Colorado, moves 0.5–5.5 m annually, yet is covered by aspen (Populus tremuloides) and conifers (Baum and Fleming 1996). Trees that survive such movements undoubtedly suffer damage, such as topping, tilting, impact, or root breakage. This damage is commonly recorded in the tree-ring record and analysis of this record can be used to reconstruct past landslide activity.

  5. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  6. Savanna Tree Seedlings are Physiologically Tolerant to Nighttime Freeze Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Keefe, Kimberly; Nippert, Jesse B.; Swemmer, Anthony M.

    2016-01-01

    Freeze events can be important disturbances in savanna ecosystems, yet the interactive effect of freezing with other environmental drivers on plant functioning is unknown. Here, we investigated physiological responses of South African tree seedlings to interactions of water availability and freezing temperatures. We grew widely distributed South African tree species (Colophospermum mopane, Combretum apiculatum, Acacia nigrescens, and Cassia abbreviata) under well-watered and water-limited conditions and exposed individuals to nighttime freeze events. Of the four species studied here, C. mopane was the most tolerant of lower water availability. However, all species were similarly tolerant to nighttime freezing and recovered within one week following the last freezing event. We also show that water limitation somewhat increased freezing tolerance in one of the species (C. mopane). Therefore, water limitation, but not freezing temperatures, may restrict the distribution of these species, although the interactions of these stressors may have species-specific impacts on plant physiology. Ultimately, we show that unique physiologies can exist among dominant species within communities and that combined stresses may play a currently unidentified role in driving the function of certain species within southern Africa. PMID:26870065

  7. A 500-year dual stable isotope tree ring chronology of a Late Glacial cooling event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauly, Maren; Helle, Gerhard; Büntgen, Ulf; Friedrich, Michael; Heinrich, Ingo; Kromer, Bernd; Nievergelt, Daniel; Reinig, Frederick; Riedel, Frank; Sookdeo, Adam; Treydte, Kerstin; Wacker, Lukas; Brauer, Achim

    2017-04-01

    A recent discovery of over 250 subfossil pine trees in Zürich (dated 14 000 - 11 000 cal BP) has provided the opportunity to study the inconsistent warming transition from the last ice age to the current interglacial. This period (the Late Glacial) has been extensively studied through the development of mostly non-tree ring palaeoclimate proxy records due to the intrigue of numerous prominent climate oscillations. However, such existing (lake sediment and ice core) records often lack the temporal resolution required to interpret rapid environmental changes. Tree rings can help to resolve such events due to their high resolution (annually-resolved) growth banding and absolute dating potential. Moreover, the analysis of stable isotopes can strongly improve the climate signal implemented in tree-ring width. Since numerous environmental conditions are all integrated in the rather simple ring-width series, measurements of chemical tree responses (via stable isotopes) can greatly refine the climate-growth-dynamics. In this study, we are developing a well replicated 500-year annually resolved dual stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C) chronology from tree-ring cellulose, in an effort to reconstruct the environmental dynamics of a short-term Late Glacial cooling event (13 950 - 13 450 cal BP) in an otherwise naturally warming world. We will present and discuss the biological response to this rapid climate oscillation in the face of low atmospheric CO2 concentrations and other site conditions without any human fingerprint.

  8. Human action analysis with randomized trees

    CERN Document Server

    Yu, Gang; Liu, Zicheng

    2014-01-01

    This book will provide a comprehensive overview on human action analysis with randomized trees. It will cover both the supervised random trees and the unsupervised random trees. When there are sufficient amount of labeled data available, supervised random trees provides a fast method for space-time interest point matching. When labeled data is minimal as in the case of example-based action search, unsupervised random trees is used to leverage the unlabelled data. We describe how the randomized trees can be used for action classification, action detection, action search, and action prediction.

  9. Use of the event tree to assess the risk reduction obtained from rockfall protection devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Peila

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents and discusses a procedure for the evaluation of the collective risk that can affect a road subjected to rockfalls, with and without protection measures, by means of the event tree analysis. This tool is useful to show designers whether the rockfall protection structures are located in the correct positions, whether they are the correct technological choice and what level of reduction of risk can be obtained. Different design options can therefore be compared on the same bases.

  10. Yield curve event tree construction for multi stage stochastic programming models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Poulsen, Rolf

    Dynamic stochastic programming (DSP) provides an intuitive framework for modelling of financial portfolio choice problems where market frictions are present and dynamic re--balancing has a significant effect on initial decisions. The application of these models in practice, however, is limited...... by the quality and size of the event trees representing the underlying uncertainty. Most often the DSP literature assumes existence of ``appropriate'' event trees without defining and examining qualities that must be met (ex--ante) in such an event tree in order for the results of the DSP model to be reliable....... Indeed defining a universal and tractable framework for fully ``appropriate'' event trees is in our opinion an impossible task. A problem specific approach to designing such event trees is the way ahead. In this paper we propose a number of desirable properties which should be present in an event tree...

  11. Post-event human decision errors: operator action tree/time reliability correlation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, R E; Fragola, J; Wreathall, J

    1982-11-01

    This report documents an interim framework for the quantification of the probability of errors of decision on the part of nuclear power plant operators after the initiation of an accident. The framework can easily be incorporated into an event tree/fault tree analysis. The method presented consists of a structure called the operator action tree and a time reliability correlation which assumes the time available for making a decision to be the dominating factor in situations requiring cognitive human response. This limited approach decreases the magnitude and complexity of the decision modeling task. Specifically, in the past, some human performance models have attempted prediction by trying to emulate sequences of human actions, or by identifying and modeling the information processing approach applicable to the task. The model developed here is directed at describing the statistical performance of a representative group of hypothetical individuals responding to generalized situations.

  12. Min-max event-triggered computation tree logic

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Very often timing verification involves the analysis of the timings of discrete events such as signal changes, sending and receiving of signals, and sensitization of edge-triggered circuit components. The main bottleneck in verifying timing properties of timed finite state machines (FSM) has been the inherent complexity of ...

  13. Tree models for macroevolution and phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Graham R

    2011-12-01

    It has long been recognized that phylogenetic trees are more unbalanced than those generated by a Yule process. Recently, the degree of this imbalance has been quantified using the large set of phylogenetic trees available in the TreeBASE data set. In this article, a more precise analysis of imbalance is undertaken. Trees simulated under a range of models are compared with trees from TreeBASE and two smaller data sets. Several simple models can match the amount of imbalance measured in real data. Most of them also match the variance of imbalance among empirical trees to a remarkable degree. Statistics are developed to measure balance and to distinguish between trees with the same overall imbalance. The match between models and data for these statistics is investigated. In particular, age-dependent (Bellman-Harris) branching process are studied in detail. It remains difficult to separate the process of macroevolution from biases introduced by sampling. The lessons for phylogenetic analysis are clearer. In particular, the use of the usual proportional to distinguishable arrangements (uniform) prior on tree topologies in Bayesian phylogenetic analysis is not recommended.

  14. The influence of tree traits and storm event characteristics on stemflow production from isolated deciduous trees in an urban park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlyle-Moses, D. E.; Schooling, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Urban tree canopy processes affect the volume and biogeochemistry of inputs to the hydrological cycle in cities. We studied stemflow from 37 isolated deciduous trees in an urban park in Kamloops, British Columbia which has a semi-arid climate dominated by small precipitation events. Precipitation and stemflow were measured on an event basis from June 12, 2012 to November 3, 2013. To clarify the effect of canopy traits on stemflow thresholds, rates, yields, percent, and funneling ratios, we analyzed branch angles, bark roughness, tree size, cover, leaf size, and branch and leader counts. High branch angles promoted stemflow in all trees, while bark roughness influenced stemflow differently for single- and multi-leader trees. The association between stemflow and numerous leaders deserves further study. Columnar-form trees often partitioned a large percentage of precipitation into stemflow, with event-scale values as high as 27.9 % recorded for an Armstrong Freeman Maple (Acer x freemanii 'Armstrong'). Under growing-season conditions funneling ratios as high as 196.9 were derived for an American Beech (Fagus grandifolia) individual. Among meteorological variables, rain depth was strongly correlated with stemflow yields; intra-storm break duration, rainfall intensity, rainfall inclination, wind speed, and vapour pressure deficit also played roles. Greater stemflow was associated with leafless canopies and with rain or mixed events versus snow. Results can inform climate-sensitive selection and siting of urban trees towards integrated rainwater management. For example, previous studies suggest that the reduction in storm-water generation by urban trees is accomplished through canopy interception loss alone. However, trees that partition large quantities of precipitation canopy-drainage as stemflow to the base of their trunks, where it has the potential to infiltrate into the soil media rather than fall on impervious surfaces as throughfall, may assist in reducing

  15. Advance Liquid Metal Reactor Discrete Dynamic Event Tree/Bayesian Network Analysis and Incident Management Guidelines (Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Groth, Katrina M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cardoni, Jeffrey N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wheeler, Timothy A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self-correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the system's design to manage the accident. Inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, but nonetheless extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety, thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayesian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR-14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Idaho National Laboratory for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  16. EVENT PLANNING USING FUNCTION ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lori Braase; Jodi Grgich

    2011-06-01

    Event planning is expensive and resource intensive. Function analysis provides a solid foundation for comprehensive event planning (e.g., workshops, conferences, symposiums, or meetings). It has been used at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to successfully plan events and capture lessons learned, and played a significant role in the development and implementation of the “INL Guide for Hosting an Event.” Using a guide and a functional approach to planning utilizes resources more efficiently and reduces errors that could be distracting or detrimental to an event. This integrated approach to logistics and program planning – with the primary focus on the participant – gives us the edge.

  17. Tree-ring analysis in natural hazards research - an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.

    2008-03-01

    The understanding of geomorphic processes and knowledge of past events are important tasks for the assessment of natural hazards. Tree rings have on varied occasions proved to be a reliable tool for the acquisition of data on past events. In this review paper, we provide an overview on the use of tree rings in natural hazards research, starting with a description of the different types of disturbances by geomorphic processes and the resulting growth reactions. Thereafter, a summary is presented on the different methods commonly used for the analysis and interpretation of reactions in affected trees. We illustrate selected results from dendrogeomorphological investigations of geomorphic processes with an emphasis on fluvial (e.g., flooding, debris flows) and mass-movement processes (e.g., landslides, snow avalanche), where lots of data have been generated over the past few decades. We also present results from rockfall and permafrost studies, where data are much scarcer, albeit data from tree-ring studies have proved to be of great value in these fields as well. Most studies using tree rings have focused on alpine environments in Europe and North America, whereas other parts of the world have been widely neglected by dendrogeomorphologists so far. We therefore challenge researchers to focus on other regions with distinct climates as well, to look on less frequently studied processes as well and to broaden and improve approaches and methods commonly used in tree-ring research so as to allow a better understanding of geomorphic processes, natural hazards and risk.

  18. MGR External Events Hazards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L. Booth

    1999-11-06

    The purpose and objective of this analysis is to apply an external events Hazards Analysis (HA) to the License Application Design Selection Enhanced Design Alternative 11 [(LADS EDA II design (Reference 8.32))]. The output of the HA is called a Hazards List (HL). This analysis supersedes the external hazards portion of Rev. 00 of the PHA (Reference 8.1). The PHA for internal events will also be updated to the LADS EDA II design but under a separate analysis. Like the PHA methodology, the HA methodology provides a systematic method to identify potential hazards during the 100-year Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) operating period updated to reflect the EDA II design. The resulting events on the HL are candidates that may have potential radiological consequences as determined during Design Basis Events (DBEs) analyses. Therefore, the HL that results from this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply during the performance of DBE analyses.

  19. Tree-space statistics and approximations for large-scale analysis of anatomical trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feragen, Aasa; Owen, Megan; Petersen, Jens

    2013-01-01

    space of leaf-labeled trees. This tree-space is a geodesic metric space where any two trees are connected by a unique shortest path, which corresponds to a tree deformation. However, tree-space is not a manifold, and the usual strategy of performing statistical analysis in a tangent space and projecting...... onto tree-space is not available. Using tree-space and its shortest paths, a variety of statistical properties, such as mean, principal component, hypothesis testing and linear discriminant analysis can be defined. For some of these properties it is still an open problem how to compute them; others...... parametrize the relevant parts of tree-space well. Using the developed approximate statistics, we illustrate how the structure and geometry of airway trees vary across a population and show that airway trees with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease come from a different distribution in tree-space than...

  20. Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Drainage Systems: Tree vs. Loop Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis of urban drainage networks plays an important role in urban flood management. This study analyzes and compares the vulnerability of tree and loop systems under various rainfall events to structural failure represented by pipe blockage. Different pipe blockage scenarios, in which one of the pipes in an urban drainage network is assumed to be blocked individually, are constructed and their impacts on the network are simulated under different storm events. Furthermore, a vulnerability index is defined to measure the vulnerability of the drainage systems before and after the implementation of adaptation measures. The results obtained indicate that the tree systems have a relatively larger proportion of critical hydraulic pipes than the loop systems, thus the vulnerability of tree systems is substantially greater than that of the loop systems. Furthermore, the vulnerability index of tree systems is reduced after they are converted into a loop system with the implementation of adaptation measures. This paper provides an insight into the differences in the vulnerability of tree and loop systems, and provides more evidence for development of adaptation measures (e.g., tanks to reduce urban flooding.

  1. The Tunguska Event in 1908: Evidence from Tree-Ring Anatomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaganov, Evgenii A.; Hughes, Malcolm K.; Silkin, Pavel P.; Nesvetailo, Valery D.

    2004-09-01

    We analyzed tree rings in wood samples collected from some of the few surviving trees found close to the epicenter (within 4-5 km) of the Tunguska event that occurred on the last day of June 1908. Tree-ring growth shows a depression starting in the year after the event and continuing during a 4-5-year period. The most remarkable traces of the event were found in the rings??? anatomical structure: (1) formation of "light" rings and a reduction of maximum density in 1908; (2) non-thickened tracheids (the cells that make up most of the wood volume) in the transition and latewood zones (the middle and last-formed parts of the ring, respectively); and (3) deformed tracheids, which are located on the 1908 annual ring outer boundary. In the majority of samples, normal earlywood and latewood tracheids were formed in all annual rings after 1908. The observed anomalies in wood anatomy suggest two main impacts of the Tunguska event on surviving trees-(1) defoliation and (2) direct mechanical stress on active xylem tissue. The mechanical stress needed to fell trees is less than the stress needed to cause the deformation of differentiating tracheids observed in trees close to the epicenter. In order to resolve this apparent contradiction, work is suggested on possible topographic modification of the overpressure experienced by these trees, as is an experimental test of the effects of such stresses on precisely analogous growing trees.

  2. Supplemental Analysis to Support Postulated Events in Process Hazards Analysis for the HEAF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, H; Johnson, G

    2001-07-20

    The purpose of this report is to conduct a limit scope risk assessment by generating event trees for the accident scenarios described in table 4-2 of the HEAF SAR, ref 1. Table 4-2 lists the postulated event/scenario descriptions for non-industrial hazards for HEAF. The event tree analysis decomposes accident scenarios into basic causes that appear as branches on the event tree. Bold downward branches indicate paths leading to the accident. The basic causes include conditions, failure of administrative controls (procedural or human error events) or failure of engineered controls (hardware, software or equipment failure) that singly or in combination can cause an accident to occur. Event tree analysis is useful since it can display the minimum number of events to cause an accident. Event trees can address statistical dependency of events such as a sequence of human error events conducted by the same operator. In this case, dependent probabilities are used. Probabilities/frequencies are assigned to each branch. Another example of dependency would be when the same software is used to conduct separate actions such as activating a hard and soft crow bar for grounding detonator circuits. Generally, the first event considered in the event tree describes the annual frequency at which a specific operation is conducted and probabilities are assigned to the remaining branches. An exception may be when the first event represents a condition, then a probability is used to indicate the percentage of time the condition exists. The annual probability (frequency) of the end state leading to the accident scenario in the event tree is obtained by multiplying the branch probabilities together.

  3. Early changes in physical tree characteristics during an oak decline event in the Ozark highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich

    2006-01-01

    An oak decline event is severely affecting up to 120 000 ha in the Ozark National Forest of Arkansas. Results of early changes in physical tree characteristics during that event are presented. In the fall and winter of 1999 and 2000, we established research plots on a site that would become a center of severe oak decline. In August 2000, standing trees > 14 cm in...

  4. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  5. Parasitic Events in Envelope Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Doubek

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Envelope analysis allows fast fault location of individual gearboxes and parts of bearings by repetition frequency determination of the mechanical catch of an amplitude-modulated signal. Systematic faults arise when using envelope analysis on a signal with strong changes. The source of these events is the range of function definition of used in convolution integral definition. This integral is used for Hilbert image calculation of analyzed signal. Overshoots (almost similar to Gibbs events on a synthetic signal using the Fourier series are result from these faults. Overshoots are caused by parasitic spectral lines in the frequency domain, which can produce faulty diagnostic analysis.This paper describes systematic arising during faults rising by signal numerical calculation using envelope analysis with Hilbert transform. It goes on to offer a mathematical analysis of these systematic faults.

  6. Identification and classification of dynamic event tree scenarios via possibilistic clustering: application to a steam generator tube rupture event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercurio, D; Podofillini, L; Zio, E; Dang, V N

    2009-11-01

    This paper illustrates a method to identify and classify scenarios generated in a dynamic event tree (DET) analysis. Identification and classification are carried out by means of an evolutionary possibilistic fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm which takes into account not only the final system states but also the timing of the events and the process evolution. An application is considered with regards to the scenarios generated following a steam generator tube rupture in a nuclear power plant. The scenarios are generated by the accident dynamic simulator (ADS), coupled to a RELAP code that simulates the thermo-hydraulic behavior of the plant and to an operators' crew model, which simulates their cognitive and procedures-guided responses. A set of 60 scenarios has been generated by the ADS DET tool. The classification approach has grouped the 60 scenarios into 4 classes of dominant scenarios, one of which was not anticipated a priori but was "discovered" by the classifier. The proposed approach may be considered as a first effort towards the application of identification and classification approaches to scenarios post-processing for real-scale dynamic safety assessments.

  7. A Dendrochronological Analysis of Mississippi River Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Therrell, M. D.; Bialecki, M. B.; Peters, C.

    2012-12-01

    We used a novel tree-ring record of anatomically anomalous "flood rings" preserved in Oak (Quercus sp.) trees growing downstream of the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence to identify spring (MAM) flood events on the lower Mississippi River from C.E. 1694-2009. Our chronology includes virtually all of the observed high-magnitude spring floods of the 20th century as well as similar flood events in prior centuries occurring on the Mississippi River adjacent to the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway. A response index analysis indicates that over half of the floods identified caused anatomical injury to well over 50% of the sampled trees and many of the greatest flood events are recorded by more than 80% of the trees at the site including 100% of the trees in the great flood of 1927. Twenty-five of the 40 floods identified as flood rings in the tree-ring record, occur during the instrumental observation period at New Madrid, Missouri (1879-2009), and comparison of the response index with average daily river stage height values indicates that the flood ring record can explain significant portions of the variance in both stage height (30%) and number of days in flood (40%) during spring flood events. The flood ring record also suggests that high-magnitude spring flooding is episodic and linked to basin-scale pluvial events driven by decadal-scale variability of the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA). This relationship suggests that the tree-ring record of flooding may also be used as a proxy record of atmospheric variability related to the PNA and related large-scale forcing.

  8. Min-max event-triggered computation tree logic

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    interested in the worst case delay between a request signal for the bus and the correspond- ing grant signal. ... domains. While Min-max CTL can express queries related to the earliest and latest timings of signals, .... A computation can be characterized by a sequence of instances of event occurrences, interspersed by ...

  9. Development of a parametric containment event tree model for a severe BWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T. [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1995-04-01

    A containment event tree (CET) is built for analysis of severe accidents at the TVO boiling water reactor (BWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to correspond to new research results. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting, and are focused mainly on the use and effects of the dedicated severe accident management (SAM) systems. Severe accident progression from eight plant damage states (PDS), involving different pre-core-damage accident evolution, is examined, but the inclusion of their relative or absolute probabilities, by integration with Level 1, is deferred to integral safety assessments. (33 refs., 5 figs., 7 tabs.).

  10. Parallel Event Analysis Under Unix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looney, S.; Nilsson, B. S.; Oest, T.; Pettersson, T.; Ranjard, F.; Thibonnier, J.-P.

    The ALEPH experiment at LEP, the CERN CN division and Digital Equipment Corp. have, in a joint project, developed a parallel event analysis system. The parallel physics code is identical to ALEPH's standard analysis code, ALPHA, only the organisation of input/output is changed. The user may switch between sequential and parallel processing by simply changing one input "card". The initial implementation runs on an 8-node DEC 3000/400 farm, using the PVM software, and exhibits a near-perfect speed-up linearity, reducing the turn-around time by a factor of 8.

  11. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    the contemporary volcanological narrative, and demonstrates that a formal evidential case could have been made to support the authorities' concerns and decision to evacuate. Revisiting the circumstances of the 1976 crisis highlights many contemporary challenges of decision-making under conditions of volcanological uncertainty. We suggest the BBN concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple observations, model results and interpretations - and all associated uncertainties - in a methodical manner. Base-rate eruption probabilities for Guadeloupe can be updated now with a new chronology of activity suggesting that 10 major explosive phases and 9 dome-forming phases occurred in the last 9150 years, associated with ≥ 8 flank-collapses and ≥ 6-7 high-energy pyroclastic density currents (blasts). Eruptive recurrence, magnitude and intensity place quantitative constraints on La Soufrière's event tree to elaborate credible scenarios. The current unrest offers an opportunity to update the BBN model and explore the uncertainty on inferences about the system's internal state. This probabilistic formalism would provoke key questions relating to unrest evolution: 1) is the unrest hydrothermal or magmatic? 2) what controls dyke/intrusion arrest and hence failed-magmatic eruptions like 1976? 3) what conditions could lead to significant pressurization with potential for explosive activity and edifice instability, and what monitoring signs might be manifest?

  12. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

  13. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J; Rambaut, Andrew

    2007-11-08

    The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.

  14. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drummond Alexei J

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. Results BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. Conclusion BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.

  15. Event Shape Analysis in ALICE

    CERN Document Server

    Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    The jets are the final state manifestation of the hard parton scattering. Since at LHC energies the production of hard processes in proton-proton collisions will be copious and varied, it is important to develop methods to identify them through the study of their final states. In the present work we describe a method based on the use of some shape variables to discriminate events according their topologies. A very attractive feature of this analysis is the possibility of using the tracking information of the TPC+ITS in order to identify specific events like jets. Through the correlation between the quantities: thrust and recoil, calculated in minimum bias simulations of proton-proton collisions at 10 TeV, we show the sensitivity of the method to select specific topologies and high multiplicity. The presented results were obtained both at level generator and after reconstruction. It remains that with any kind of jet reconstruction algorithm one will confronted in general with overlapping jets. The present meth...

  16. A fast method for calculating reliable event supports in tree reconciliations via Pareto optimality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Thu-Hien; Jacox, Edwin; Ranwez, Vincent; Scornavacca, Celine

    2015-11-14

    Given a gene and a species tree, reconciliation methods attempt to retrieve the macro-evolutionary events that best explain the discrepancies between the two tree topologies. The DTL parsimonious approach searches for a most parsimonious reconciliation between a gene tree and a (dated) species tree, considering four possible macro-evolutionary events (speciation, duplication, transfer, and loss) with specific costs. Unfortunately, many events are erroneously predicted due to errors in the input trees, inappropriate input cost values or because of the existence of several equally parsimonious scenarios. It is thus crucial to provide a measure of the reliability for predicted events. It has been recently proposed that the reliability of an event can be estimated via its frequency in the set of most parsimonious reconciliations obtained using a variety of reasonable input cost vectors. To compute such a support, a straightforward but time-consuming approach is to generate the costs slightly departing from the original ones, independently compute the set of all most parsimonious reconciliations for each vector, and combine these sets a posteriori. Another proposed approach uses Pareto-optimality to partition cost values into regions which induce reconciliations with the same number of DTL events. The support of an event is then defined as its frequency in the set of regions. However, often, the number of regions is not large enough to provide reliable supports. We present here a method to compute efficiently event supports via a polynomial-sized graph, which can represent all reconciliations for several different costs. Moreover, two methods are proposed to take into account alternative input costs: either explicitly providing an input cost range or allowing a tolerance for the over cost of a reconciliation. Our methods are faster than the region based method, substantially faster than the sampling-costs approach, and have a higher event-prediction accuracy on

  17. Potential density and tree survival: an analysis based on South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Finally, we present a tree survival analysis, based on the Weibull distribution function, for the Nelshoogte replicated CCT study, which has been observed for almost 40 years after planting and provides information about tree survival in response to planting espacements ranging from 494 to 2 965 trees per hectare.

  18. Analysis of individual tree volume equations for Cupressus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of individual tree volume equations for Cupressus lusitanica in Munessa forest, Ethiopia. ... Southern Forests: a Journal of Forest Science ... volume equations were fitted to individual tree volume (V) data collected on 260 Cupressus lusitanica trees from 49 plantations in Munessa Shashemene Forest, Ethiopia.

  19. Analysis of Logic Programs Using Regular Tree Languages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallagher, John Patrick

    2012-01-01

    The eld of nite tree automata provides fundamental notations and tools for reasoning about set of terms called regular or recognizable tree languages. We consider two kinds of analysis using regular tree languages, applied to logic programs. The rst approach is to try to discover automatically...

  20. HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Bartolini, Stefania; Martí, Joan

    2014-01-01

    Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).

  1. Fault Tree Analysis with Temporal Gates and Model Checking Technique for Qualitative System Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-05-15

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) has suffered from several drawbacks such that it uses only static gates and hence can not capture dynamic behaviors of the complex system precisely, and it is in lack of rigorous semantics, and reasoning process which is to check whether basic events really cause top events is done manually and hence very labor-intensive and time-consuming for the complex systems while it has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry. Although several attempts have been made to overcome this problem, they can not still do absolute or actual time modeling because they adapt relative time concept and can capture only sequential behaviors of the system. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA

  2. Extreme temperature events in millennial length tree-ring chronologies from the Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Pfister, Ch.; Esper, J.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme events are an important focus of climate research mainly because they are one of the main channels through which the climate and socio-economic systems interact. However, the link between such extreme events, climate variability, and climate change is poorly understood. While instrumental data have been used to quantify changes in extremes during recent times and model projections may suggest likelihoods for potential future changes, natural proxy data, and tree rings in particular, may be useful to assess variations over many centuries and to understand climatic extremes and their temporal distribution with respect to long-term climate evolution. We analyzed three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region: Tyrol (Austria), Lauenen, and Lötschental (both Switzerland). To specifically preserve climate variations and the frequency and magnitude of annual extremes, both tree ring detrending and variance stabilization methods are applied. We focus on the maximum latewood density measurements (MXD), as our results suggest MXD data are more reliable recorders of extreme events in comparison to tree-ring width. The combination of the three millennial length tree-ring chronologies allows robust detection of extreme warm and cold summers. Although, the chronology quality decreases back in time, this compilation, along with documentary evidence, provides increased understanding of climatic extremes and variation of the alpine region for the past 1000 years. In addition to providing a catalogue of extreme summers, we discuss the occurrence of climatic extremes in the context of multi-centennial climate variability and relate this discussion to the characteristics of proxy archives and (natural and anthropogenically forced) climate variability.

  3. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Missing rings in Pinus halepensis – the missing link to relate the tree-ring record to extreme climatic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klemen eNovak

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE. These conditions are associated with decreased growth of trees and their increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings is responsive to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, cambial cell division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may stop during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR, which can link tree-ring anatomy to the occurrence of extreme events. A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis, a widespread tree species in the Mediterranean basin, was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites throughout its distribution range. Binomial logistic regression analysis of 2595 MR series determined that MR increased in frequency with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of southeastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Further regression analysis indicated that the relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature was non-linear. In this first determination of climatic influences on MR, the formation of MR was most strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature above 10°C from previous October till current February and total precipitation below 50 mm from previous September till current May. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a

  5. Static Analysis for Event-Based XML Processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders

    2008-01-01

    Event-based processing of XML data - as exemplified by the popular SAX framework - is a powerful alternative to using W3C's DOM or similar tree-based APIs. The event-based approach is a streaming fashion with minimal memory consumption. This paper discusses challenges for creating program analyses...... for SAX applications. In particular, we consider the problem of statically guaranteeing the a given SAX program always produces only well-formed and valid XML output. We propose an analysis technique based on ecisting anglyses of Servlets, string operations, and XML graphs....

  6. Development of a parametric containment event tree model of a severe PWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T. [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1996-06-01

    The study supports the development project of STUK on `Living` PSA Level 2. The main work objective is to develop review tools for the Level 2 PSA studies underway at the utilities. The SPSA (STUK PSA) code is specifically designed for the purpose. In this work, SPSA is utilized as the Level 2 programming and calculation tool. A containment event tree (CET) model is built for analysis of severe accidents at the Loviisa pressurized water reactor (PWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to include new research results, and so it facilitates the Living PSA concept on Level 2 as well. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting at a low primary system pressure. Severe accident progression from five plant damage states (PDSs) is examined, however the integration with Level 1 is deferred to more definitive, integrated, safety assessments. (34 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs.).

  7. Primer on medical decision analysis: Part 2--Building a tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detsky, A S; Naglie, G; Krahn, M D; Redelmeier, D A; Naimark, D

    1997-01-01

    This part of a five-part series covering practical issues in the performance of decision analysis outlines the basic strategies for building decision trees. The authors offer six recommendations for building and programming decision trees. Following these six recommendations will facilitate performance of the sensitivity analyses required to achieve two goals. The first is to find modeling or programming errors, a process known as "debugging" the tree. The second is to determine the robustness of the qualitative conclusions drawn from the analysis.

  8. Utility of tree crown condition indicators to predict tree survival using remeasured Forest Inventory and Analysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall S. Morin; Jim Steinman; KaDonna C. Randolph

    2012-01-01

    The condition of tree crowns is an important indicator of tree and forest health. Crown conditions have been evaluated during surveys of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Phase 3 (P3) plots since 1999. In this study, remeasured data from 39,357 trees in the northern United States were used to assess the probability of survival among various tree species using the...

  9. Inferring Species Trees Directly from Biallelic Genetic Markers: Bypassing Gene Trees in a Full Coalescent Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, David; Bouckaert, Remco; Felsenstein, Joseph; Rosenberg, Noah A.; RoyChoudhury, Arindam

    2012-01-01

    The multispecies coalescent provides an elegant theoretical framework for estimating species trees and species demographics from genetic markers. However, practical applications of the multispecies coalescent model are limited by the need to integrate or sample over all gene trees possible for each genetic marker. Here we describe a polynomial-time algorithm that computes the likelihood of a species tree directly from the markers under a finite-sites model of mutation effectively integrating over all possible gene trees. The method applies to independent (unlinked) biallelic markers such as well-spaced single nucleotide polymorphisms, and we have implemented it in SNAPP, a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler for inferring species trees, divergence dates, and population sizes. We report results from simulation experiments and from an analysis of 1997 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in 69 individuals sampled from six species of Ourisia (New Zealand native foxglove). PMID:22422763

  10. Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis – The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A.; Longares, Luis A.; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T.

    2016-01-01

    Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

  11. Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis - The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A; Longares, Luis A; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T

    2016-01-01

    Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

  12. Application of fault tree analysis to fuel cell diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yousfi Steiner, N.; Mocoteguy, P. [European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), Karlsruhe (Germany); Hissel, D. [FEMTO-ST/ENISYS/FC LAB, UMR CNRS 6174, University of Franche-Comte, Belfort (France); Candusso, D. [IFSTTAR/FC LAB, Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks, Belfort (France); Marra, D.; Pianese, C.; Sorrentino, M. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Salerno, Fisciano (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    Reliability and lifetime are common issues for the development and commercialization of fuel cells technologies'. As a consequence, their improvement is a major challenge and the last decade has experienced a growing interest in activities that aims at understanding the degradation mechanisms and at developing fuel cell systems diagnosis tools. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the deductive tools that allow ''linking'' an undesired state to a combination of lower-level events via a ''top-down'' approach which is mainly used in safety and reliability engineering. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the use and the contribution of FTA to both SOFC and PEFC diagnosis. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  13. A biophysical analysis of latitudinal tree line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, S. J.; Loranty, M. M.; Berner, L.; Jin, Y.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Northern latitudinal tree line represents the interface between boreal forests and tundra ecosystems, and is the ecophysiological limit of tree recruitment and persistence. The transition between tundra and forest is typically gradual, occurring over tens to hundreds of kilometers. This gradient represents a substantial change in the biophysical properties of the earth surface, one that is particularly important in ecosystems that are snow covered for much of the year. Tree line is, however, commonly delineated by the point of the northern most tree, with no gradient between forested and non-forested ecosystems. As a consequence crisp delineations of tree line incorporated into models introduce error in surface radiation budgets due to inaccurate albedo representations. Errors in modeled carbon and water fluxes are likely as well. Here we use satellite observations to quantify several key biophysical properties across latitudinal tree line for a series of sites throughout the pan-boreal region We find decreases in NDVI and increases in albedo across the transition from boreal forest to tundra, as expected. However, in the absence of topographical barriers we find that these transitions can occur over upwards of 100 km, and that biophysical properties characteristic of tundra ecosystems can occur as far as 100 km south of tree line. This suggests that land surface models likely overestimate surface radiation budgets and carbon fluxes in the boreal biome. We discuss our results in the context of land surface models, noting specific examples from archived model runs.

  14. DFTCalc: Reliability centered maintenance via fault tree analysis (tool paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Spel, Jip; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Butler, Michael; Conchon, Sylvain; Zaïdi, Fatiha

    2015-01-01

    Reliability, availability, maintenance and safety (RAMS) analysis is essential in the evaluation of safety critical systems like nuclear power plants and the railway infrastructure. A widely used methodology within RAMS analysis are fault trees, representing failure propagations throughout a system.

  15. Surface Management System Departure Event Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Gilena A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a data analysis of the Surface Management System (SMS) performance of departure events, including push-back and runway departure events.The paper focuses on the detection performance, or the ability to detect departure events, as well as the prediction performance of SMS. The results detail a modest overall detection performance of push-back events and a significantly high overall detection performance of runway departure events. The overall detection performance of SMS for push-back events is approximately 55%.The overall detection performance of SMS for runway departure events nears 100%. This paper also presents the overall SMS prediction performance for runway departure events as well as the timeliness of the Aircraft Situation Display for Industry data source for SMS predictions.

  16. Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    68M15 (Reliability, testing and fault tolerance). Keywords: Fault tree, Triangular and Trapezoidal fuzzy number, Fuzzy importance, Ranking of fuzzy numbers. 1. Introduction. Fault tree analysis (FTA) seems to be a very effective tool to predict probability of hazard, resulting from sequences and combinations of faults and ...

  17. Solution Tree Problem Solving Procedure for Engineering Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a 10-step procedure, called the solution-tree problemsolving procedure, for solving engineering analysis problems. The core of the procedure is the development of a tree-like solution algorithm for the problem or class of problems, based on the divide-and-conquer and top-down design concepts.

  18. Event analysis in primary substation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulasaari, H. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The target of the project is to develop a system which observes the functions of a protection system by using modern microprocessor based relays. Microprocessor based relays have three essential capabilities: the first is the communication with the SRIO and the SCADA system, the second is the internal clock, which is used to produce time stamped event data, and the third is the capability to register some values during the fault. For example, during a short circuit fault the relay registers the value of the short circuit current and information on the number of faulted phases. In the case of an earth fault the relay stores both the neutral current and the neutral voltage

  19. Improving Cluster Analysis with Automatic Variable Selection Based on Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE IMPROVING CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITH AUTOMATIC VARIABLE SELECTION BASED ON TREES 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6...BLANK iii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited IMPROVING CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITH AUTOMATIC VARIABLE SELECTION BASED ON TREES Anton D...Cluster: Cluster analysis basics and extensions. (R Package Version, 1.15.2) R Core Team. (2014). R: A language and environment for statistical

  20. Sub-pixel estimation of tree cover and bare surface densities using regression tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Zangrando Toneli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Sub-pixel analysis is capable of generating continuous fields, which represent the spatial variability of certain thematic classes. The aim of this work was to develop numerical models to represent the variability of tree cover and bare surfaces within the study area. This research was conducted in the riparian buffer within a watershed of the São Francisco River in the North of Minas Gerais, Brazil. IKONOS and Landsat TM imagery were used with the GUIDE algorithm to construct the models. The results were two index images derived with regression trees for the entire study area, one representing tree cover and the other representing bare surface. The use of non-parametric and non-linear regression tree models presented satisfactory results to characterize wetland, deciduous and savanna patterns of forest formation.

  1. Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khaja, Nawal

    2007-01-01

    This is a thematic lesson plan for young learners about palm trees and the importance of taking care of them. The two part lesson teaches listening, reading and speaking skills. The lesson includes parts of a tree; the modal auxiliary, can; dialogues and a role play activity.

  2. An analysis of Monte Carlo tree search

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, S

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a family of directed search algorithms that has gained widespread attention in recent years. Despite the vast amount of research into MCTS, the effect of modifications on the algorithm, as well as the manner...

  3. Discrete Discriminant analysis based on tree-structured graphical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez de la Cruz, Gonzalo; Eslava, Guillermina

    The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of discriminant analysis based on tree{structured graphical models for discrete variables. This is done by comparing its empirical performance using estimated error rates for real and simulated data. The results show that discriminant...... analysis based on tree{structured graphical models is a simple nonlinear method competitive with, and sometimes superior to, other well{known linear methods like those assuming mutual independence between variables and linear logistic regression....

  4. Radiocarbon dating with annual-resolution of subfossil trees from the Younger Dryas event in the southern French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capano, Manuela; Miramont, Cécile; Guibal, Frédéric; Kromer, Bernd; Tuna, Thibaut; Fagault, Yoann; Bard, Edouard

    2017-04-01

    Tree rings are an important archive for the calibration of radiocarbon data. The younger part of the IntCal curve is based essentially on tree-ring chronologies, absolutely dated by dendrochronological analysis. For the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a gap still exists between the absolutely dated sequences and a floating chronology. Based on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tree-ring chronologies a link has been previously proposed (Reimer et al. 2013, Radiocarbon; see also update in Hogg et al. 2016, Radiocarbon). By measuring radiocarbon at annual resolution in French subfossil pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) we propose to improve the connection between the absolute chronology and the floating chronology. Several subfossil pines have been found in the Southern French Alps; they were buried by flood deposits, allowing their preservation. Some trees discovered in the Barbier riverbed were dated to the Younger Dryas periods by previous decadal radiocarbon measurements, performed in Heidelberg and Mannheim. The trees selected for our new study are Barb12 and Barb17 (analyzed sequences of 163 and 152 rings, respectively). These sequences were sampled at annual resolution when permitted by the ring width. As a first step, every third ring was pretreated for radiocarbon analysis. These samples were sliced in small pieces and pretreated by using the ABA-B method before being combusted, graphitized with the AGE system and measured with AixMICADAS (Bard et al. 2015, Nucl. Instr. Meth. B). From the comparison with the kauri sequence, the Barb12-17 sequence can be dated from about 12835 to 12606 cal. BP. It can also be used to calculate the interhemispheric gradient (IHG) over the overlapping period. In order to reduce the inter-annual variability, the Barb12-17 record was smoothed, grouped and averaged over the same decades as in the Kauri record. On the basis of twenty values, a mean IHG value of ca. 60 years was calculated. Quantification of the IHG around 50 yr is particularly

  5. Negated bio-events: analysis and identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Negation occurs frequently in scientific literature, especially in biomedical literature. It has previously been reported that around 13% of sentences found in biomedical research articles contain negation. Historically, the main motivation for identifying negated events has been to ensure their exclusion from lists of extracted interactions. However, recently, there has been a growing interest in negative results, which has resulted in negation detection being identified as a key challenge in biomedical relation extraction. In this article, we focus on the problem of identifying negated bio-events, given gold standard event annotations. Results We have conducted a detailed analysis of three open access bio-event corpora containing negation information (i.e., GENIA Event, BioInfer and BioNLP’09 ST), and have identified the main types of negated bio-events. We have analysed the key aspects of a machine learning solution to the problem of detecting negated events, including selection of negation cues, feature engineering and the choice of learning algorithm. Combining the best solutions for each aspect of the problem, we propose a novel framework for the identification of negated bio-events. We have evaluated our system on each of the three open access corpora mentioned above. The performance of the system significantly surpasses the best results previously reported on the BioNLP’09 ST corpus, and achieves even better results on the GENIA Event and BioInfer corpora, both of which contain more varied and complex events. Conclusions Recently, in the field of biomedical text mining, the development and enhancement of event-based systems has received significant interest. The ability to identify negated events is a key performance element for these systems. We have conducted the first detailed study on the analysis and identification of negated bio-events. Our proposed framework can be integrated with state-of-the-art event extraction systems. The

  6. Extreme Drought Event and Shrub Invasion Reduce Oak Trees Functioning and Resilience on Water-Limited Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, M. C.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Lecomte, X.; David, T. S.; Pinto, J. G.; Bugalho, M. N.; Werner, C.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event in a Mediterranean oak woodland, we show that the combination of native shrub invasion and extreme drought reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during four years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined more sharply (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year (2011). Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species coupled with the projected recurrent extreme droughts will cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome, thus increasing the probability of tree mortality.

  7. Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Debris-Flow Events Leading to Overbank Sedimentation on the Illgraben Cone (Valais Alps, Switzerland)

    OpenAIRE

    Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; Leutwiler, Astrid; Aeby, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Dendrogeomorphological analyses of trees affected by debris flows have regularly been used to date past events. However, while previous studies in the Swiss Alps have focused primarily on granitic and gneissic debris-flow material and on Larix decidua Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. trees, they have – at the same time – widely disregarded torrents dominated by finely fractured calcareous and dolomitic lithologies and forests populated with Pinus sylvestris L. In this paper, we report on res...

  8. Multigenic phylogeny and analysis of tree incongruences in Triticeae (Poaceae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilhaumon Claire

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Introgressive events (e.g., hybridization, gene flow, horizontal gene transfer and incomplete lineage sorting of ancestral polymorphisms are a challenge for phylogenetic analyses since different genes may exhibit conflicting genealogical histories. Grasses of the Triticeae tribe provide a particularly striking example of incongruence among gene trees. Previous phylogenies, mostly inferred with one gene, are in conflict for several taxon positions. Therefore, obtaining a resolved picture of relationships among genera and species of this tribe has been a challenging task. Here, we obtain the most comprehensive molecular dataset to date in Triticeae, including one chloroplastic and 26 nuclear genes. We aim to test whether it is possible to infer phylogenetic relationships in the face of (potentially large-scale introgressive events and/or incomplete lineage sorting; to identify parts of the evolutionary history that have not evolved in a tree-like manner; and to decipher the biological causes of gene-tree conflicts in this tribe. Results We obtain resolved phylogenetic hypotheses using the supermatrix and Bayesian Concordance Factors (BCF approaches despite numerous incongruences among gene trees. These phylogenies suggest the existence of 4-5 major clades within Triticeae, with Psathyrostachys and Hordeum being the deepest genera. In addition, we construct a multigenic network that highlights parts of the Triticeae history that have not evolved in a tree-like manner. Dasypyrum, Heteranthelium and genera of clade V, grouping Secale, Taeniatherum, Triticum and Aegilops, have evolved in a reticulated manner. Their relationships are thus better represented by the multigenic network than by the supermatrix or BCF trees. Noteworthy, we demonstrate that gene-tree incongruences increase with genetic distance and are greater in telomeric than centromeric genes. Together, our results suggest that recombination is the main factor

  9. Statistical analysis of solar proton events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Kurt

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available A new catalogue of 253 solar proton events (SPEs with energy >10MeV and peak intensity >10 protons/cm2.s.sr (pfu at the Earth's orbit for three complete 11-year solar cycles (1970-2002 is given. A statistical analysis of this data set of SPEs and their associated flares that occurred during this time period is presented. It is outlined that 231 of these proton events are flare related and only 22 of them are not associated with Ha flares. It is also noteworthy that 42 of these events are registered as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs in neutron monitors. The longitudinal distribution of the associated flares shows that a great number of these events are connected with west flares. This analysis enables one to understand the long-term dependence of the SPEs and the related flare characteristics on the solar cycle which are useful for space weather prediction.

  10. Event History Analysis in Quantitative Genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maia, Rafael Pimentel

    time-to-event characteristic of interest. Real genetic longevity studies based on female animals of different species (sows, dairy cows, and sheep) exemplifies the use of the methods. Moreover these studies allow to understand som genetic mechanisms related to the lenght of the productive life......Event history analysis is a clas of statistical methods specially designed to analyze time-to-event characteristics, e.g. the time until death. The aim of the thesis was to present adequate multivariate versions of mixed survival models that properly represent the genetic aspects related to a given...... of the animals....

  11. Event analysis in a primary substation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaerventausta, P.; Paulasaari, H. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland); Partanen, J. [Lappeenranta Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    The target of the project was to develop applications which observe the functions of a protection system by using modern microprocessor based relays. Microprocessor based relays have three essential capabilities: communication with the SCADA, the internal clock to produce time stamped event data, and the capability to register certain values during the fault. Using the above features some new functions for event analysis were developed in the project

  12. Analysis of Future Event Set Algorithms for Discrete Event Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    McCormack, William M.; Sargent, Robert G.

    1980-01-01

    This work reports on new analytical and empirical results on the performance of algorithms for handling the future event set in discrete event simulation. These results provide a clear insight to the factors affecting algorithm performance; evaluate the "hold" model, often used to study future event set algorithms; and determine the best algorithm(s) to use.

  13. Analysis of protection spanning-tree protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Б.Я. Корнієнко

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available  Extraordinary sweeping  of  IT – development  causes vulnerabilities and, thereafter, attacks that use these vulnerabilities. That is why one must post factum or even in advance speed up invention of new information  security systems as well as develop the old ones. The matter of article concerns Spanning-Tree Protocol  – the vivid example of the case, when the cure of the vulnerability creates dozen of new "weak spots".

  14. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  15. Attack Graph Construction for Security Events Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Alexeevich Chechulin

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to investigation of the attack graphs construction and analysis task for a network security evaluation and real-time security event processing. Main object of this research is the attack modeling process. The paper contains the description of attack graphs building, modifying and analysis technique as well as overview of implemented prototype for network security analysis based on attack graph approach.

  16. Orthology prediction at scalable resolution by phylogenetic tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huynen Martijn A

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Orthology is one of the cornerstones of gene function prediction. Dividing the phylogenetic relations between genes into either orthologs or paralogs is however an oversimplification. Already in two-species gene-phylogenies, the complicated, non-transitive nature of phylogenetic relations results in inparalogs and outparalogs. For situations with more than two species we lack semantics to specifically describe the phylogenetic relations, let alone to exploit them. Published procedures to extract orthologous groups from phylogenetic trees do not allow identification of orthology at various levels of resolution, nor do they document the relations between the orthologous groups. Results We introduce "levels of orthology" to describe the multi-level nature of gene relations. This is implemented in a program LOFT (Levels of Orthology From Trees that assigns hierarchical orthology numbers to genes based on a phylogenetic tree. To decide upon speciation and gene duplication events in a tree LOFT can be instructed either to perform classical species-tree reconciliation or to use the species overlap between partitions in the tree. The hierarchical orthology numbers assigned by LOFT effectively summarize the phylogenetic relations between genes. The resulting high-resolution orthologous groups are depicted in colour, facilitating visual inspection of (large trees. A benchmark for orthology prediction, that takes into account the varying levels of orthology between genes, shows that the phylogeny-based high-resolution orthology assignments made by LOFT are reliable. Conclusion The "levels of orthology" concept offers high resolution, reliable orthology, while preserving the relations between orthologous groups. A Windows as well as a preliminary Java version of LOFT is available from the LOFT website http://www.cmbi.ru.nl/LOFT.

  17. Understanding Boswellia papyrifera tree secondary metabolites through bark spectral analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girma, Atkilt; Skidmore, Andrew K.; de Bie, C. A. J. M.; Bongers, Frans

    2015-07-01

    Decision makers are concerned whether to tap or rest Boswellia Papyrifera trees. Tapping for the production of frankincense is known to deplete carbon reserves from the tree leading to production of less viable seeds, tree carbon starvation and ultimately tree mortality. Decision makers use traditional experience without considering the amount of metabolites stored or depleted from the stem-bark of the tree. This research was designed to come up with a non-destructive B. papyrifera tree metabolite estimation technique relevant for management using spectroscopy. The concentration of biochemicals (metabolites) found in the tree bark was estimated through spectral analysis. Initially, a random sample of 33 trees was selected, the spectra of bark measured with an Analytical Spectral Device (ASD) spectrometer. Bark samples were air dried and ground. Then, 10 g of sample was soaked in Petroleum ether to extract crude metabolites. Further chemical analysis was conducted to quantify and isolate pure metabolite compounds such as incensole acetate and boswellic acid. The crude metabolites, which relate to frankincense produce, were compared to plant properties (such as diameter and crown area) and reflectance spectra of the bark. Moreover, the extract was compared to the ASD spectra using partial least square regression technique (PLSR) and continuum removed spectral analysis. The continuum removed spectral analysis were performed, on two wavelength regions (1275-1663 and 1836-2217) identified through PLSR, using absorption features such as band depth, area, position, asymmetry and the width to characterize and find relationship with the bark extracts. The results show that tree properties such as diameter at breast height (DBH) and the crown area of untapped and healthy trees were strongly correlated to the amount of stored crude metabolites. In addition, the PLSR technique applied to the first derivative transformation of the reflectance spectrum was found to estimate the

  18. Multistate Demography and Event History Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hannan, M. T.

    1982-01-01

    In this paper, Michael Hannan explores a merger of two methodologies for the purpose of analyzing the direct and indirect long-run implications of behavioral responses to public policies: multistate demography and life history or event history analysis. He argues that such a combined approach allows one to project levels of well-being in heterogeneous populations facing changing social policies.

  19. HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference. Presented as a plugin for QGIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Bartolini, Stefania; Martí, Joan

    2014-05-01

    Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools of modern volcanology to assess the volcanic hazard of future volcanic scenarios. They are particularly relevant to evaluate long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. Here we introduce HASSET, a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario, and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of non-eruptive and non-magmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (eg. sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as those with external triggers as primary sources of unrest (as opposed to magmatic unrest alone). Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess how precise the probability estimates are, by reporting a one standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plugin for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include an example of HASSET applied to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).

  20. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  1. From Curves to Trees: A Tree-like Shapes Distance Using the Elastic Shape Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottini, A; Descombes, X; Besse, F

    2015-04-01

    Trees are a special type of graph that can be found in various disciplines. In the field of biomedical imaging, trees have been widely studied as they can be used to describe structures such as neurons, blood vessels and lung airways. It has been shown that the morphological characteristics of these structures can provide information on their function aiding the characterization of pathological states. Therefore, it is important to develop methods that analyze their shape and quantify differences between their structures. In this paper, we present a method for the comparison of tree-like shapes that takes into account both topological and geometrical information. This method, which is based on the Elastic Shape Analysis Framework, also computes the mean shape of a population of trees. As a first application, we have considered the comparison of axon morphology. The performance of our method has been evaluated on two sets of images. For the first set of images, we considered four different populations of neurons from different animals and brain sections from the NeuroMorpho.org open database. The second set was composed of a database of 3D confocal microscopy images of three populations of axonal trees (normal and two types of mutations) of the same type of neurons. We have calculated the inter and intra class distances between the populations and embedded the distance in a classification scheme. We have compared the performance of our method against three other state of the art algorithms, and results showed that the proposed method better distinguishes between the populations. Furthermore, we present the mean shape of each population. These shapes present a more complete picture of the morphological characteristics of each population, compared to the average value of certain predefined features.

  2. Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henri Epstein

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available An algebraic formalism, developed with V. Glaser and R. Stora for the study of the generalized retarded functions of quantum field theory, is used to prove a factorization theorem which provides a complete description of the generalized retarded functions associated with any tree graph. Integrating over the variables associated to internal vertices to obtain the perturbative generalized retarded functions for interacting fields arising from such graphs is shown to be possible for a large category of space–times.

  3. Evaluation of radioactive facilities safety using event trees; Evaluacion de la seguridad de instalaciones radiactivas utilizando arboles de evento

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez Saiz, A.; Cornejo Diaz, N.; Callis Fernandez, E.

    2004-07-01

    The validity of using the Event Trees as an adequate quantitative analysis model for doing radiological safety assessments of radioactive facilities is presented in this work. The radiological safety assessments made for four Departments of Radiotherapy (Teletherapy with Co-60 and High Dose Rate afterloading brachytherapy with Ir-192) from different hospitals were taken as the base for the analysis. By the use of this model were obtained quantitative results. The probabilities to reach a typical scenario in a first stage, and then, based on previously doses calculations in the same scenario, the total risk values, were obtained. The unauthorized entry into a radiation room while the source is in its fully exposed position was the main scenario identified. The numerical values obtained using this model supported the radiological safety assessments made during the licensing process of those installations. The analysis of the intrinsic safety systems of the radiotherapy equipments was not included in the study because it's design was accepted by the Regulatory Authority and also meet the criterion of proven effectiveness. The use of this model let us suggest modifications such as the adding of any component to the system and/or the change of its position in order to minimize the probability of reaching the mentioned scenario. The model is also useful to confirm that the present international requirements for the safety systems in this type of facilities lead to practices with better or similar total risk levels than others considered as safe. (Author)

  4. UFORE (i-Tree Eco) Analysis of Chicago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherie LeBlanc Fisher; David Nowak

    2010-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service and City of Chicago conducted a UFORE (now called i-Tree Eco) analysis of Chicago's urban forest in the summer of 2007. The UFORE (Urban FORest Effects) model developed by the Forest Service uses on-the-ground sampling data to understand the composition of on urban forest and calculate the forest's impacts on air pollution and energy...

  5. ADTool: Security Analysis with Attack-Defense Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kordy, Barbara; Kordy, P.T.; Mauw, Sjouke; Schweitzer, Patrick; Joshi, Kaustubh; Siegle, Markus; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; d' Argenio, P.R.

    ADTool is free, open source software assisting graphical modeling and quantitative analysis of security, using attack–defense trees. The main features of ADTool are easy creation, efficient editing, and automated bottom-up evaluation of security-relevant measures. The tool also supports the usage of

  6. Sampling procedure for the foliar analysis of deciduous trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Raitio, Hannu; Vervaeke, Pieter; Mertens, Jan; Lust, Noël

    2002-01-01

    Sampling can be the source of the greatest errors in the overall results of foliar analysis. This paper reviews the variability in heavy metal concentrations in tree crowns, which is a feature that should be known and understood when designing a suitable leaf sampling procedure. The leaf sampling

  7. Factor analysis of 'tree mortality'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohr, H.

    1983-06-01

    The analysis of pollutant actions enjoys a long tradition in plant physiology. The question is to what extent the findings gained predominantly with herbaceous cultivated plants may contribute to an understanding of the causes of ''tree mortality''. It has been argued that tree damage occurring in the medium and higher altitudes of the Black Forest are to be traced back to the damaging action of photooxidants mainly. A special role is assigned to nitrogen oxides and those secondary photooxidants (ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate) originating from them by photochemical reactions.

  8. Analysis of organisation sport event of event Red Bull Crashed Ice 2009

    OpenAIRE

    Rak, Zdeněk

    2009-01-01

    Title: Analysis of organisation sport event of event Red Bull Crashed Ice 2009 Work goal: Analysis of organisation of event... Methods: Descriptive analysis, SWOT analysis, Interview with experts. Annotation: Organisation of Red Bull Crashed Ice includes possible areas of improvement with concrete suggestions to activities of organisational process of this sport event. Introduced proposals result from results of SWOT analysis and interviews with professionals. Results: Conclusion and advices ...

  9. Multistate event history analysis with frailty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Govert Bijwaard

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: In survival analysis a large literature using frailty models, or models with unobserved heterogeneity, exists. In the growing literature and modelling on multistate models, this issue is only in its infant phase. Ignoring frailty can, however, produce incorrect results. Objective: This paper presents how frailties can be incorporated into multistate models, with an emphasis on semi-Markov multistate models with a mixed proportional hazard structure. Methods: First, the aspects of frailty modeling in univariate (proportional hazard, Cox and multivariate event history models are addressed. The implications of choosing shared or correlated frailty is highlighted. The relevant differences with recurrent events data are covered next. Multistate models are event history models that can have both multivariate and recurrent events. Incorporating frailty in multistate models, therefore, brings all the previously addressed issues together. Assuming a discrete frailty distribution allows for a very general correlation structure among the transition hazards in a multistate model. Although some estimation procedures are covered the emphasis is on conceptual issues. Results: The importance of multistate frailty modeling is illustrated with data on labour market and migration dynamics of recent immigrants to the Netherlands.

  10. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  11. Effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event on tropical trees in regrowing secondary forests in Central Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015/16 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event ranks amongst the driest and hottest periods on record in Panama, with severe drought conditions reported for over 90% of the country. A predicted long-term transition into a drier climatic period makes this event an ideal opportunity to study the effects of drought on tropical tree species in secondary forests of central Panama. These forests are associated with desirable hydrological ecosystem services, characterized by reduced peak runoff during high precipitation events in the rainy season and increased base flow during the dry season ("sponge-effect"), making these forest invaluable for water provisioning for the Panama Canal's $2 billion business and Panama's thriving capital city. Starting in February 2015, we installed heat-ratio sap flow sensors in 76 trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) in the 15 km2 Agua Salud study area, located in the Panama Canal Watershed. Within each site, trees were selected to represent local tree size distribution. Additional sensors were installed on the roots of a subset of trees. Sap flow data were logged every 30 minutes and soil moisture was measured every 3 minutes at 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm depth. Pre-dawn, mid-day, and pre-dusk leaf water potentials were measured during the dry season (March 2016) and rainy season (July 2016). Meteorological data were taken from a nearby met-station ("Celestino"). Primary drivers of transpiration were vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. Trees of the 25 and 80+ year old forests appear not water limited during the dry season following ENSO while reduced sap flow rates of trees in the 8 year old forest are indicative of a regulatory response to the drought. Younger understory trees in the 80+ year old forest showed no signs of a drought response. Throughout most of the dry season, volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old

  12. Event time analysis of longitudinal neuroimage data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabuncu, Mert R; Bernal-Rusiel, Jorge L; Reuter, Martin; Greve, Douglas N; Fischl, Bruce

    2014-08-15

    This paper presents a method for the statistical analysis of the associations between longitudinal neuroimaging measurements, e.g., of cortical thickness, and the timing of a clinical event of interest, e.g., disease onset. The proposed approach consists of two steps, the first of which employs a linear mixed effects (LME) model to capture temporal variation in serial imaging data. The second step utilizes the extended Cox regression model to examine the relationship between time-dependent imaging measurements and the timing of the event of interest. We demonstrate the proposed method both for the univariate analysis of image-derived biomarkers, e.g., the volume of a structure of interest, and the exploratory mass-univariate analysis of measurements contained in maps, such as cortical thickness and gray matter density. The mass-univariate method employs a recently developed spatial extension of the LME model. We applied our method to analyze structural measurements computed using FreeSurfer, a widely used brain Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) analysis software package. We provide a quantitative and objective empirical evaluation of the statistical performance of the proposed method on longitudinal data from subjects suffering from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) at baseline. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. On Coalescence Analysis Using Genealogy Rooted Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ao Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available DNA sequence data are now being used to study the ancestral history of human population. The existing methods for such coalescence inference use recursion formula to compute the data probabilities. These methods are useful in practical applications, but computationally complicated. Here we first investigate the asymptotic behavior of such inference; results indicate that, broadly, the estimated coalescent time will be consistent to a finite limit. Then we study a relatively simple computation method for this analysis and illustrate how to use it.

  14. Tree-ring based reconstruction of the seasonal timing, major events and origin of rockfall on a case-study slope in the Swiss Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Schneuwly

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Tree-ring analysis has been used to reconstruct 22 years of rockfall behavior on an active rockfall slope near Saas Balen (Swiss Alps. We analyzed 32 severely injured trees (L. decidua, P. abies and P. cembra and investigated cross-sections of 154 wounds.

    The intra-annual position of callus tissue and of tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts was determined in order to reconstruct the seasonality of past rockfall events. Results indicate strong intra- and inter-annual variations of rockfall activity, with a peak (76% observed in the dormant season (early October – end of May. Within the growth season, rockfall regularly occurs between the end of May and mid July (21.4%, whereas events later in the season appear to be quite rare (2.6%. Findings suggest that rockfall activity at the study site is driven by annual thawing processes and the circulation of melt water in preexisting fissures. Data also indicate that 43% of all rockfall events occurred in 1995, when two major precipitation events are recorded in nearby meteorological stations. Finally, data on impact angles are in very good agreement with the geomorphic situation in the field.

  15. Application Research of Fault Tree Analysis in Grid Communication System Corrective Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Yang, Zhenwei; Kang, Mei

    2018-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply the fault tree analysis method to the corrective maintenance field of grid communication system. Through the establishment of the fault tree model of typical system and the engineering experience, the fault tree analysis theory is used to analyze the fault tree model, which contains the field of structural function, probability importance and so on. The results show that the fault tree analysis can realize fast positioning and well repairing of the system. Meanwhile, it finds that the analysis method of fault tree has some guiding significance to the reliability researching and upgrading f the system.

  16. Contingency Analysis of Cascading Line Outage Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas L Baldwin; Magdy S Tawfik; Miles McQueen

    2011-03-01

    As the US power systems continue to increase in size and complexity, including the growth of smart grids, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. Grid congestion is often associated with a cascading collapse leading to a major blackout. Such a collapse is characterized by a self-sustaining sequence of line outages followed by a topology breakup of the network. This paper addresses the implementation and testing of a process for N-k contingency analysis and sequential cascading outage simulation in order to identify potential cascading modes. A modeling approach described in this paper offers a unique capability to identify initiating events that may lead to cascading outages. It predicts the development of cascading events by identifying and visualizing potential cascading tiers. The proposed approach was implemented using a 328-bus simplified SERC power system network. The results of the study indicate that initiating events and possible cascading chains may be identified, ranked and visualized. This approach may be used to improve the reliability of a transmission grid and reduce its vulnerability to cascading outages.

  17. Selection the Optimum Suppliers Compound Using a Mixed Model of MADM and Fault Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Azimian

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach of MADM and fault tree analysis (FTA is provided for determining the most reliable combination of suppliers for a strategic product in IUT University. At first, risks of suppliers is estimated by defining the indices for evaluating them, determining their relative status indices and using satisfying and SAW methods. Then, intrinsic risks of utilized equipments in the products are qualified and the final integrated risk for equipments is determined. Finally, through all the different scenarios, the best composition of equipment suppliers is selected by defining the palpable top events and fault tree analysis. The contribution of this paper is about proposing an integrated method of MADM and FTA to determine the most reliable suppliers in order to minimize the final risk of providing a product.

  18. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS FEATURES IN INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS SAFETY ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Iosif MORARU

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Fault tree analysis is useful both in designing new products/services or in dealing with identified problems in existing ones. In the quality planning process, the analysis can be used to optimize process features and goals and to design for critical factors and human error. As part of safety process improvement, as it is emphasized in the present paper, it can be used to help identify root causes of undesired events such as occupational injuries and illnesses. A case study of application in industrial safety systems illustrates the aim, principle and structure of the technique, allowing better prevention measures selection and implementation.

  19. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    TESKEY, ROBERT; WERTIN, TIMOTHY; BAUWERAERTS, INGVAR; AMEYE, MAARTEN; MCGUIRE, MARY ANNE; STEPPE, KATHY

    2015-01-01

    .... At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality...

  20. SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF FIBROBLAST NUCLEAR CHROMOCENTERS: COMPONENT TREE ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Snapp, Robert R.; Goveia, Elyse; Peet, Lindsay; Bouffard, Nicole A; Badger, Gary J.; Langevin, Helene M

    2013-01-01

    The nuclei of mouse connective tissue fibroblasts contain chromocenters which are well-defined zones of heterochromatin that can be used as positional landmarks to examine nuclear remodeling in response to a mechanical perturbation. This study used component tree analysis, an image segmentation algorithm that detects high intensity voxels that are topologically connected, to quantify the spatial organization of chromocenters in fibroblasts within whole mouse connective tissue fixed and staine...

  1. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-07-21

    This analysis report, ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'', is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the ERMYN (Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada) biosphere model for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, its input parameters, and the application of the model to perform the dose assessment for the repository. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of the two reports that develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs), which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and lists its input parameters. Model input parameters are developed and described in detail in five analysis report (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160964], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160965], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160976], BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239], and BSC 2003 [DIRS 161241]). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash exposure scenario and the dose factors (DFs) for calculating inhalation doses during volcanic eruption (eruption phase of the volcanic event). The volcanic ash exposure scenario is hereafter referred to as the volcanic ash scenario. For the volcanic ash scenario, the mode of radionuclide release into the biosphere is a volcanic eruption through the repository with the resulting entrainment of contaminated waste in the tephra and the subsequent atmospheric transport and dispersion of contaminated material in

  2. Multi-level tree analysis of pulmonary artery/vein trees in non-contrast CT images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhiyun; Grout, Randall W.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Saha, Punam K.

    2012-02-01

    Diseases like pulmonary embolism and pulmonary hypertension are associated with vascular dystrophy. Identifying such pulmonary artery/vein (A/V) tree dystrophy in terms of quantitative measures via CT imaging significantly facilitates early detection of disease or a treatment monitoring process. A tree structure, consisting of nodes and connected arcs, linked to the volumetric representation allows multi-level geometric and volumetric analysis of A/V trees. Here, a new theory and method is presented to generate multi-level A/V tree representation of volumetric data and to compute quantitative measures of A/V tree geometry and topology at various tree hierarchies. The new method is primarily designed on arc skeleton computation followed by a tree construction based topologic and geometric analysis of the skeleton. The method starts with a volumetric A/V representation as input and generates its topologic and multi-level volumetric tree representations long with different multi-level morphometric measures. A new recursive merging and pruning algorithms are introduced to detect bad junctions and noisy branches often associated with digital geometric and topologic analysis. Also, a new notion of shortest axial path is introduced to improve the skeletal arc joining two junctions. The accuracy of the multi-level tree analysis algorithm has been evaluated using computer generated phantoms and pulmonary CT images of a pig vessel cast phantom while the reproducibility of method is evaluated using multi-user A/V separation of in vivo contrast-enhanced CT images of a pig lung at different respiratory volumes.

  3. Responses of foliar antioxidative and photoprotective defence systems of trees to drought: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wujeska, Agnieszka; Bossinger, Gerd; Tausz, Michael

    2013-10-01

    Current climate change predictions hint to more frequent extreme weather events, including extended droughts, making better understanding of the impacts of water stress on trees even more important. At the individual plant level, stomatal closure as a result of water deficit leads to reduced CO2 availability in the leaf, which can lead to photo-oxidative stress. Photorespiration and the Mehler reaction can maintain electron transport rates under low internal CO2, but result in production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). If electron consumption is decreased, upstream photochemical processes can be affected and light energy is absorbed in excess of photochemical requirements. Trees evolved to cope with excess energy and elevated concentration of ROS by activating photoprotective and antioxidative defence systems. The meta-analysis we present here assessed responses of these defence systems reported in 50 studies. We found responses to vary depending on stress intensity, foliage type and habitat, and on whether experiments were done in the field or in controlled environments. In general, drought increased concentrations of antioxidants and photoprotective pigments. However, severe stress caused degradation of antioxidant concentrations and oxidation of antioxidant pools. Evergreen trees seemed to preferentially reinforce membrane-bound protection systems zeaxanthin and tocopherol, whereas deciduous species showed greater responses in water-soluble antioxidants ascorbic acid and glutathione. Trees and shrubs from arid versus humid habitats vary in their antioxidative and photoprotective defence responses. In field experiments, drought had greater effects on some defence compounds than under controlled conditions.

  4. Missing rings in Pinus halepensis – the missing link to relate the tree-ring record to extreme climatic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemen Novak; Martin de Luis; Miguel A. Saz; Luis A. Longares; Roberto Serrano-Notivoli; Josep Raventos; Katarina Cufar; Jozica Gricar; Alfredo Di Filippo; Gianluca Piovesan; Cyrille B.K. Rathgeber; Andreas Papadopoulos; Kevin T. Smith

    2016-01-01

    Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of...

  5. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-08

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169671]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis''. The objective of this

  6. [Dealing with competing events in survival analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béchade, Clémence; Lobbedez, Thierry

    2015-04-01

    Survival analyses focus on the occurrences of an event of interest, in order to determine risk factors and estimate a risk. Competing events prevent from observing the event of interest. If there are competing events, it can lead to a bias in the risk's estimation. The aim of this article is to explain why Cox model is not appropriate when there are competing events, and to present Fine and Gray model, which can help when dealing with competing risks. Copyright © 2015 Association Société de néphrologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Disruptive Event Biosphere Doser Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2000-12-28

    The purpose of this report was to document the process leading to, and the results of, development of radionuclide-, exposure scenario-, and ash thickness-specific Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) for the postulated postclosure extrusive igneous event (volcanic eruption) at Yucca Mountain. BDCF calculations were done for seventeen radionuclides. The selection of radionuclides included those that may be significant dose contributors during the compliance period of up to 10,000 years, as well as radionuclides of importance for up to 1 million years postclosure. The approach documented in this report takes into account human exposure during three different phases at the time of, and after, volcanic eruption. Calculations of disruptive event BDCFs used the GENII-S computer code in a series of probabilistic realizations to propagate the uncertainties of input parameters into the output. The pathway analysis included consideration of different exposure pathway's contribution to the BDCFs. BDCFs for volcanic eruption, when combined with the concentration of radioactivity deposited by eruption on the soil surface, allow calculation of potential radiation doses to the receptor of interest. Calculation of radioactivity deposition is outside the scope of this report and so is the transport of contaminated ash from the volcano to the location of the receptor. The integration of the biosphere modeling results (BDCFs) with the outcomes of the other component models is accomplished in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA), in which doses are calculated to the receptor of interest from radionuclides postulated to be released to the environment from the potential repository at Yucca Mountain.

  8. Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Manikandan, M Sabarimalai; Ramkumar, Barathram

    2015-08-01

    In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%.

  9. Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Matheson

    2004-01-01

    Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.

  10. EventThread: Visual Summarization and Stage Analysis of Event Sequence Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shunan; Xu, Ke; Zhao, Rongwen; Gotz, David; Zha, Hongyuan; Cao, Nan

    2018-01-01

    Event sequence data such as electronic health records, a person's academic records, or car service records, are ordered series of events which have occurred over a period of time. Analyzing collections of event sequences can reveal common or semantically important sequential patterns. For example, event sequence analysis might reveal frequently used care plans for treating a disease, typical publishing patterns of professors, and the patterns of service that result in a well-maintained car. It is challenging, however, to visually explore large numbers of event sequences, or sequences with large numbers of event types. Existing methods focus on extracting explicitly matching patterns of events using statistical analysis to create stages of event progression over time. However, these methods fail to capture latent clusters of similar but not identical evolutions of event sequences. In this paper, we introduce a novel visualization system named EventThread which clusters event sequences into threads based on tensor analysis and visualizes the latent stage categories and evolution patterns by interactively grouping the threads by similarity into time-specific clusters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of EventThread through usage scenarios in three different application domains and via interviews with an expert user.

  11. A measuring tool for tree-rings analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumilov, Oleg; Kanatjev, Alexander; Kasatkina, Elena

    2013-04-01

    A special tool has been created for the annual tree-ring widths measurement and analysis. It consists of professional scanner, computer system and software. This created complex in many aspects does not yield the similar systems (LINTAB, WinDENDRO), but in comparison to manual measurement systems, it offers a number of advantages: productivity gain, possibility of archiving the results of the measurements at any stage of the processing, operator comfort. It has been developed a new software, allowing processing of samples of different types (cores, saw cuts), including those which is difficult to process, having got a complex wood structure (inhomogeneity of growing in different directions, missed, light and false rings etc.). This software can analyze pictures made with optical scanners, analog or digital cameras. The complex software program was created on programming language C++, being compatible with modern operating systems like Windows X. Annual ring widths are measured along paths traced interactively. These paths can have any orientation and can be created so that ring widths are measured perpendicular to ring boundaries. A graphic of ring-widths in function of the year is displayed on a screen during the analysis and it can be used for visual and numerical cross-dating and comparison with other series or master-chronologies. Ring widths are saved to the text files in a special format, and those files are converted to the format accepted for data conservation in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank. The created complex is universal in application that will allow its use for decision of the different problems in biology and ecology. With help of this complex it has been reconstructed a long-term juniper (1328-2004) and pine (1445-2005) tree-ring chronologies on the base of samples collected at Kola Peninsula (northwestern Russia).

  12. [Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galitskiĭ, V V

    2010-01-01

    A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

  13. Enterprise architecture availability analysis using fault trees and stakeholder interviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Närman, Per; Franke, Ulrik; König, Johan; Buschle, Markus; Ekstedt, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    The availability of enterprise information systems is a key concern for many organisations. This article describes a method for availability analysis based on Fault Tree Analysis and constructs from the ArchiMate enterprise architecture (EA) language. To test the quality of the method, several case-studies within the banking and electrical utility industries were performed. Input data were collected through stakeholder interviews. The results from the case studies were compared with availability of log data to determine the accuracy of the method's predictions. In the five cases where accurate log data were available, the yearly downtime estimates were within eight hours from the actual downtimes. The cost of performing the analysis was low; no case study required more than 20 man-hours of work, making the method ideal for practitioners with an interest in obtaining rapid availability estimates of their enterprise information systems.

  14. Tree species' responses to throughfall removal experiments superimposed on a natural drought event in two contrasting humid temperate forests in New Hampshire, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Katie; McIntire, Cameron; Coble, Adam; Vandeboncoeur, Matthew; Rustad, Lindsay; Templer, Pamela; Absbjornsen, Heidi

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is likely to affect Northeastern U.S. forests through the increased frequency and severity of drought events. However, our understanding of how these humid temperate forests will respond to moderate to extreme droughts is limited. Given the important role that these forests play in providing ecosystem services and in supplying forest products, enhancing our knowledge about the impacts of drought is critical to guiding forest management and climate change adaptation efforts. We conducted 50% throughfall removal experiments at two contrasting sites in the Northeastern US (Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and Thompson Farm, NH, USA), which were superimposed on the severe natural drought occurring in August-September 2016. Preliminary analysis suggests that the two sites respond differently to simulated drought. Pinus strobus trees at Thompson Farm reduced their transpiration rates in response to both the natural and experimental drought, particularly evident during a 5-day period at the height of the drought were transpiration nearly ceased. Both P. strobus and Quercus rubra trees increased their water use efficiency in response to reduced soil water availability, with Q. rubra allowing its midday water potential to reach more negative values, consistent with its more drought tolerant strategy compared to P. strobus. In contrast, we did not detect any significant differences in tree transpiration rates or growth in the dominant tree species, Acer rubrum, in response to the experimental drought treatment at Hubbard Brook. However, both soil respiration and fine root biomass production were lower in the drought treatment plots relative to the control plots at Hubbard Brook. We plan to continue these throughfall removal experiments for at least two more years to better understand the implications of future drought in these humid temperate forests and identify differences in species' physiological adaptations and threshold responses.

  15. Spatial organization of fibroblast nuclear chromocenters: component tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snapp, Robert R; Goveia, Elyse; Peet, Lindsay; Bouffard, Nicole A; Badger, Gary J; Langevin, Helene M

    2013-09-01

    The nuclei of mouse connective tissue fibroblasts contain chromocenters which are well-defined zones of heterochromatin that can be used as positional landmarks to examine nuclear remodeling in response to a mechanical perturbation. This study used component tree analysis, an image segmentation algorithm that detects high intensity voxels that are topologically connected, to quantify the spatial organization of chromocenters in fibroblasts within whole mouse connective tissue fixed and stained with 4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI). The component tree analysis method was applied to confocal microscopy images of whole mouse areolar connective tissue incubated for 30 min ex vivo with or without static stretch. In stretched tissue, the mean distance between chromocenters within fibroblast nuclei was significantly greater (vs. non-stretched, P stretch and no stretch. Average chromocenter distance was positively correlated with nuclear cross-sectional area (r = 0.78, P Static stretching of mouse areolar connective tissue for 30 min resulted in substantially increased separation of nuclear chromocenters in connective tissue fibroblasts. This interior remodeling of the nucleus induced by tissue stretch may impact transcriptionally active euchromatin within the inter-chromocenter space. © 2013 Anatomical Society.

  16. Regression tree analysis of ecological momentary assessment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Ben; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; O'Donnell, Renee; Ling, Mathew; Staiger, Petra K

    2017-09-01

    An increasingly popular form of data collection in health psychology research is Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA); that is, using diaries or smartphones to collect intensive longitudinal data. This method is increasingly applied to the study of relationships between state-based aspects of individuals' functioning and health outcomes (e.g., binge eating, alcohol use). Analysis of such data is challenging and regression tree modelling (RTM) may be a useful alternative to multilevel modelling for investigating the association between a set of explanatory variables and a continuous outcome. Furthermore, RTM outputs 'decision trees' that could be used by health practitioners to guide assessment and tailor intervention. In contrast to regression, RTM is able to easily accommodate many complex, higher-order interactions between predictor variables (without the need to create explicit interaction terms). These benefits make the technique useful for those interested in monitoring and intervening upon health and psychological outcomes (e.g., mood, eating behaviour, risky alcohol use, and treatment adherence). Using real data, this paper demonstrates both the benefits and limitations of RTM and how to extend these models to accommodate analysis of nested data; that is, data that arise from EMA where repeated observations are nested within individuals.

  17. A Fourier analysis of extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2014-01-01

    The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

  18. Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima [Process Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University, St. John' s, NL, A1B 3X5 (Canada); Khan, Faisal, E-mail: fikhan@mun.c [Process Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University, St. John' s, NL, A1B 3X5 (Canada); Amyotte, Paul [Department of Process Engineering and Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3J 2X4 (Canada)

    2011-08-15

    Safety analysis in gas process facilities is necessary to prevent unwanted events that may cause catastrophic accidents. Accident scenario analysis with probability updating is the key to dynamic safety analysis. Although conventional failure assessment techniques such as fault tree (FT) have been used effectively for this purpose, they suffer severe limitations of static structure and uncertainty handling, which are of great significance in process safety analysis. Bayesian network (BN) is an alternative technique with ample potential for application in safety analysis. BNs have a strong similarity to FTs in many respects; however, the distinct advantages making them more suitable than FTs are their ability in explicitly representing the dependencies of events, updating probabilities, and coping with uncertainties. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the application of BNs in safety analysis of process systems. The first part of the paper shows those modeling aspects that are common between FT and BN, giving preference to BN due to its ability to update probabilities. The second part is devoted to various modeling features of BN, helping to incorporate multi-state variables, dependent failures, functional uncertainty, and expert opinion which are frequently encountered in safety analysis, but cannot be considered by FT. The paper concludes that BN is a superior technique in safety analysis because of its flexible structure, allowing it to fit a wide variety of accident scenarios.

  19. Risk Analysis of Marine Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis

    1998-01-01

    Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated.......Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated....

  20. A Key Event Path Analysis Approach for Integrated Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Liao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available By studying the key event paths of probabilistic event structure graphs (PESGs, a key event path analysis approach for integrated system models is proposed. According to translation rules concluded from integrated system architecture descriptions, the corresponding PESGs are constructed from the colored Petri Net (CPN models. Then the definitions of cycle event paths, sequence event paths, and key event paths are given. Whereafter based on the statistic results after the simulation of CPN models, key event paths are found out by the sensitive analysis approach. This approach focuses on the logic structures of CPN models, which is reliable and could be the basis of structured analysis for discrete event systems. An example of radar model is given to characterize the application of this approach, and the results are worthy of trust.

  1. Towards Synthesis of Attack Trees for Supporting Computer-Aided Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pinchinat, Sophie; Acher, Mathieu; Vojtisek, Didier

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Attack trees are widely used in the fields of defense for the analysis of risks (or threats) against electronics systems, computer control systems or physical systems. Based on the analysis of attack trees, practitioners can define actions to engage in order to reduce or annihilate risks. A major barrier to support computer-aided risk analysis is that attack trees can become largely complex and thus hard to specify. This paper is a first step towards a methodology, for...

  2. Integrated analysis of tropical trees growth: a multivariate approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yáñez-Espinosa, Laura; Terrazas, Teresa; López-Mata, Lauro

    2006-09-01

    One of the problems analysing cause-effect relationships of growth and environmental factors is that a single factor could be correlated with other ones directly influencing growth. One attempt to understand tropical trees' growth cause-effect relationships is integrating research about anatomical, physiological and environmental factors that influence growth in order to develop mathematical models. The relevance is to understand the nature of the process of growth and to model this as a function of the environment. The relationships of Aphananthe monoica, Pleuranthodendron lindenii and Psychotria costivenia radial growth and phenology with environmental factors (local climate, vertical strata microclimate and physical and chemical soil variables) were evaluated from April 2000 to September 2001. The association among these groups of variables was determined by generalized canonical correlation analysis (GCCA), which considers the probable associations of three or more data groups and the selection of the most important variables for each data group. The GCCA allowed determination of a general model of relationships among tree phenology and radial growth with climate, microclimate and soil factors. A strong influence of climate in phenology and radial growth existed. Leaf initiation and cambial activity periods were associated with maximum temperature and day length, and vascular tissue differentiation with soil moisture and rainfall. The analyses of individual species detected different relationships for the three species. The analyses of the individual species suggest that each one takes advantage in a different way of the environment in which they are growing, allowing them to coexist.

  3. Analysis of catchments response to severe drought event for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Run Sum analysis method and the Low Flow Frequency Analysis using Weibull distribution were used to characterise the drought event. The analyses firstly noted that the two catchments under study responded differently to rainfall events. The Low flow frequency analysis was used to identify a threshold value, below ...

  4. Research on Visual Analysis Methods of Terrorism Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Wenyue; Liu, Haiyan; Yu, Anzhu; Li, Jing

    2016-06-01

    Under the situation that terrorism events occur more and more frequency throughout the world, improving the response capability of social security incidents has become an important aspect to test governments govern ability. Visual analysis has become an important method of event analysing for its advantage of intuitive and effective. To analyse events' spatio-temporal distribution characteristics, correlations among event items and the development trend, terrorism event's spatio-temporal characteristics are discussed. Suitable event data table structure based on "5W" theory is designed. Then, six types of visual analysis are purposed, and how to use thematic map and statistical charts to realize visual analysis on terrorism events is studied. Finally, experiments have been carried out by using the data provided by Global Terrorism Database, and the results of experiments proves the availability of the methods.

  5. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    Popocatépetl volcano is one of the most active in Latin America. During its last cycle of activity, beginning at the end of 1994, more than 40 episodes of dome construction and destruction have occurred inside the summit crater. Most of these episodes finished with eruptions of VEI 1-2. Eruptions of higher intensity were also registered in 1997, 2001 and 2009, of VEI≥3, which produced eruptive columns up to 8 km high and abundant and frequent ash falls on the villages at the eastern sector of the volcano. The January 22nd 2001 eruption also produced pyroclastic flows that followed several streams on the volcanic cone, reaching 4 to 6 km, and transforming to mudflows with ranges up to 15 km. The capital, Mexico City, is within the radius of 80 km from Popocatépetl volcano and can be affected by ash fall during the first months of the rainy season (May to July). Other important cities, such as Puebla and Atlixco, are located 15 to 30 km from the crater. Several villages of the states of México, Puebla and Morelos, which have a total population of 40,000 people, are inside the radius of 12 to 15 km, where the impacts of any of the products of an eruption, including pyroclastic flows, are possible. This high exposure of people and infrastructure around Popocatépetl volcano emphasizes the need of tools for early warning and the development of preventive actions to protect the population from volcanic phenomena. The diagnosis of the volcanic activity, based on the information provided by the monitoring systems, and the prognosis of the evolution of the volcano in the short-term is made by the Scientific Advisory Committee, formed by volcanologists of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and by CENAPRED staff. From this prognosis, the alert level for the people is determined and it is spread by the code of the traffic light of volcanic alert. A volcanic event tree was constructed with the advisory of the scientific committee in the recent seismic

  6. Procedure for conducting probabilistic safety assessment: level 1 full power internal event analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dae; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J. [and others

    2003-07-01

    This report provides guidance on conducting a Level I PSA for internal events in NPPs, which is based on the method and procedure that was used in the PSA for the design of Korea Standard Nuclear Plants (KSNPs). Level I PSA is to delineate the accident sequences leading to core damage and to estimate their frequencies. It has been directly used for assessing and modifying the system safety and reliability as a key and base part of PSA. Also, Level I PSA provides insights into design weakness and into ways of preventing core damage, which in most cases is the precursor to accidents leading to major accidents. So Level I PSA has been used as the essential technical bases for risk-informed application in NPPs. The report consists six major procedural steps for Level I PSA; familiarization of plant, initiating event analysis, event tree analysis, system fault tree analysis, reliability data analysis, and accident sequence quantification. The report is intended to assist technical persons performing Level I PSA for NPPs. A particular aim is to promote a standardized framework, terminology and form of documentation for PSAs. On the other hand, this report would be useful for the managers or regulatory persons related to risk-informed regulation, and also for conducting PSA for other industries.

  7. Wood anatomical analysis of Alnus incana and Betula pendula injured by a debris-flow event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbellay, Estelle; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle

    2010-10-01

    Vessel chronologies in ring-porous species have been successfully employed in the past to extract the climate signal from tree rings. Environmental signals recorded in vessels of ring-porous species have also been used in previous studies to reconstruct discrete events of drought, flooding and insect defoliation. However, very little is known about the ability of diffuse-porous species to record environmental signals in their xylem cells. Moreover, time series of wood anatomical features have only rarely been used to reconstruct former geomorphic events. This study was therefore undertaken to characterize the wood anatomical response of diffuse-porous Alnus incana (L.) Moench and Betula pendula Roth to debris-flow-induced wounding. Tree microscopic response to wounding was assessed through the analysis of wood anatomical differences between injured rings formed in the debris-flow event year and uninjured rings formed in the previous year. The two ring types were examined close and opposite to the injury in order to determine whether wound effects on xylem cells decrease with increasing tangential distance from the injury. Image analysis was used to measure vessel parameters as well as fiber and parenchyma cell (FPC) parameters. The results of this study indicate that injured rings are characterized by smaller vessels as compared with uninjured rings. By contrast, FPC parameters were not found to significantly differ between injured and uninjured rings. Vessel and FPC parameters mainly remained constant with increasing tangential distance from the injury, except for a higher proportion of vessel lumen area opposite to the injury within A. incana. This study highlights the existence of anatomical tree-ring signatures-in the form of smaller vessels-related to past debris-flow activity and addresses a new methodological approach to date injuries inflicted on trees by geomorphic processes.

  8. Analysis of some parameters for random nodes in priority trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alois Panholzer

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Priority trees are a certain data structure used for priority queue administration. Under the model that all permutations of the numbers $1, dots, n$ are equally likely to construct a priority tree of size $n$ we study the following parameters in size-$n$ trees: depth of a random node, number of right edges to a random node, and number of descendants of a random node. For all parameters studied we give limiting distribution results.

  9. ANALYSIS OF EVENT TOURISM IN RUSSIA, ITS FUNCTIONS, WAYS TO IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF EVENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Yur'evich Grushin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers one of the important directions of development of the national economy in the area of tourist services – development of event tourism in the Russian Federation. Today the market of event management in Russia is in the process of formation, therefore its impact on the socio-economic development of regions and Russia as a whole is minimal, and the analysis of the influence is not performed. This problem comes to the fore in the regions of Russia, specializing in the creation of event-direction tourist-recreational cluster. The article provides an analysis of the existing market of event management and event tourism functions. Providing the ways to improve the efficiency of event management and recommendations for the organizer of events in the regions. The article shows the specific role of event tourism in the national tourism and provides direction for the development of organizational and methodical recommendations on its formation in the regions of Russia and the creation of an effective management system at the regional level. The purpose of this article is to analyze the emerging in Russia event tourism market and its specifics. On the basis of these studies are considered folding patterns of the new market and the assessment of its impact on the modern national tourism industry. Methodology. To complete this article are used comparative and economic and statistical analysis methods. Conclusions/significance. The practical importance of this article is in the elimination of existing in the national tourism industry contradictions: on the one hand, in the Russian Federation is annually held a large amount events activities, including world-class in all regions say about tourist trips to the event, but the event tourism does not exist yet. In all regions, there is an internal and inbound tourism, but it has nothing to do with the event tourism. The article has a practical conclusions demonstrate the need to adapt the

  10. Toward a theory of statistical tree-shape analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feragen, Aasa; Lo, Pechin Chien Pau; de Bruijne, Marleen

    2013-01-01

    In order to develop statistical methods for shapes with a tree-structure, we construct a shape space framework for tree-shapes and study metrics on the shape space. This shape space has singularities, which correspond to topological transitions in the represented trees. We study two closely related...... metrics on the shape space, TED and QED. QED is a quotient Euclidean distance arising naturally from the shape space formulation, while TED is the classical tree edit distance. Using Gromov's metric geometry we gain new insight into the geometries defined by TED and QED. We show that the new metric QED...

  11. Decision analysis using decision trees for a simple clinical decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakley, Brian

    2012-10-01

    To illustrate the use of decision trees with a utility index in clinical decision making. A decision tree was created related to whether or not to perform a tonsillectomy. Data from the literature were applied to a common hypothetical clinical scenario. A decision tree graphically represents the typical decision-making process that many clinicians use. The addition of utility functions permitted consideration of the adverse or beneficial effects of outcomes, altering the treatment decision. Quantitative tools such as decision trees may quantify outcome preferences and aid in clinical decision making, but the proper tool and background data are essential.

  12. Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

    1988-01-01

    A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

  13. Web Video Event Recognition by Semantic Analysis From Ubiquitous Documents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Litao; Yang, Yang; Huang, Zi; Wang, Peng; Song, Jingkuan; Shen, Heng Tao

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, the task of event recognition from videos has attracted increasing interest in multimedia area. While most of the existing research was mainly focused on exploring visual cues to handle relatively small-granular events, it is difficult to directly analyze video content without any prior knowledge. Therefore, synthesizing both the visual and semantic analysis is a natural way for video event understanding. In this paper, we study the problem of Web video event recognition, where Web videos often describe large-granular events and carry limited textual information. Key challenges include how to accurately represent event semantics from incomplete textual information and how to effectively explore the correlation between visual and textual cues for video event understanding. We propose a novel framework to perform complex event recognition from Web videos. In order to compensate the insufficient expressive power of visual cues, we construct an event knowledge base by deeply mining semantic information from ubiquitous Web documents. This event knowledge base is capable of describing each event with comprehensive semantics. By utilizing this base, the textual cues for a video can be significantly enriched. Furthermore, we introduce a two-view adaptive regression model, which explores the intrinsic correlation between the visual and textual cues of the videos to learn reliable classifiers. Extensive experiments on two real-world video data sets show the effectiveness of our proposed framework and prove that the event knowledge base indeed helps improve the performance of Web video event recognition.

  14. Species Composition of Down Dead and Standing Live Trees: Implications for Forest Inventory Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Linda Nagel

    2005-01-01

    The assessment of species composition in most forest inventory analysis relies solely on standing live tree information characterized by current forest type. With the implementation of the third phase of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program, the species composition of down dead trees, otherwise termed coarse...

  15. Analysis of internal events for the Unit 1 of the Laguna Verde nuclear power station; Analisis de eventos internos para la Unidad 1 de la Central Nucleolelectrica de Laguna Verde

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huerta B, A.; Aguilar T, O.; Nunez C, A.; Lopez M, R. [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, 03000 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    1993-07-01

    This volume presents the results of the starter event analysis and the event tree analysis for the Unit 1 of the Laguna Verde nuclear power station. The starter event analysis includes the identification of all those internal events which cause a disturbance to the normal operation of the power station and require mitigation. Those called external events stay beyond the reach of this study. For the analysis of the Laguna Verde power station eight transient categories were identified, three categories of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) inside the container, a LOCA out of the primary container, as well as the vessel break. The event trees analysis involves the development of the possible accident sequences for each category of starter events. Events trees by systems for the different types of LOCA and for all the transients were constructed. It was constructed the event tree for the total loss of alternating current, which represents an extension of the event tree for the loss of external power transient. Also the event tree by systems for the anticipated transients without scram was developed (ATWS). The events trees for the accident sequences includes the sequences evaluation with vulnerable nucleus, that is to say those sequences in which it is had an adequate cooling of nucleus but the remoting systems of residual heat had failed. In order to model adequately the previous, headings were added to the event tree for developing the sequences until the point where be solved the nucleus state. This process includes: the determination of the failure pressure of the primary container, the evaluation of the environment generated in the reactor building as result of the container failure or cracked of itself, the determination of the localization of the components in the reactor building and the construction of boolean expressions to estimate the failure of the subordinated components to an severe environment. (Author)

  16. The flood event explorer - a web based framework for rapid flood event analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

    2015-04-01

    Flood disaster management, recovery and reconstruction planning benefit from rapid evaluations of flood events and expected impacts. The near real time in-depth analysis of flood causes and key drivers for flood impacts requires a close monitoring and documentation of hydro-meteorological and socio-economic factors. Within the CEDIM's Rapid Flood Event Analysis project a flood event analysis system is developed which enables the near real-time evaluation of large scale floods in Germany. The analysis system includes functionalities to compile event related hydro-meteorological data, to evaluate the current flood situation, to assess hazard intensity and to estimate flood damage to residential buildings. A German flood event database is under development, which contains various hydro-meteorological information - in the future also impact information -for all large-scale floods since 1950. This data base comprises data on historic flood events which allow the classification of ongoing floods in terms of triggering processes and pre-conditions, critical controls and drivers for flood losses. The flood event analysis system has been implemented in a database system which automatically retrieves and stores data from more than 100 online discharge gauges on a daily basis. The current discharge observations are evaluated in a long term context in terms of flood frequency analysis. The web-based frontend visualizes the current flood situation in comparison to any past flood from the flood catalogue. The regional flood data base for Germany contains hydro-meteorological data and aggregated severity indices for a set of 76 historic large-scale flood events in Germany. This data base has been used to evaluate the key drivers for the flood in June 2013.

  17. Survival trees: an alternative non-parametric multivariate technique for life history analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Rose, A; Pallara, A

    1997-01-01

    "In this paper an extension of tree-structured methodology to cover censored survival analysis is discussed.... The tree-shaped diagram...can be used to draw meaningful patterns of behaviour throughout the individual life history.... The fundamentals of tree methodology are outlined; [then] an application of the technique to real data from a survey on the progression to marriage among adult women in Italy is illustrated; [and] some comments are presented on the main advantages and problems related to tree-structured methodology for censored survival analysis." (EXCERPT)

  18. City of Boulder, Colorado Municipal Tree Resource Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.G. McPherson; J.R. Simpson; P.J. Peper; S.L. Gardner; K.E. Vargas; Q. Xiao

    2005-01-01

    Boulder is a vibrant city, renowned for its livability and cultural wealth and well known for its Smart Growth policies that protect and restore environmental quality while enhancing economic opportunity. The city maintains trees as an integral component of the urban infrastructure. Research indicates that healthy trees can mitigate impacts associated with the built...

  19. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  20. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  1. [Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

  2. Infinite dimensional spherical analysis and harmonic analysis for groups acting on homogeneous trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Axelgaard, Emil

    In this thesis, we study groups of automorphisms for homogeneous trees of countable degree by using an inductive limit approach. The main focus is the thourough discussion of two Olshanski spherical pairs consisting of automorphism groups for a homogeneous tree and a homogeneous rooted tree, resp...... finite. Finally, we discuss conditionally positive definite functions on the groups and use the generalized Bochner-Godement theorem for Olshanski spherical pairs to prove Levy-Khinchine formulas for both of the considered pairs......., respectively. We determine the spherical functions, discuss their positive definiteness, and make realizations of the corresponding spherical representations. We turn certain double coset spaces into semigroups and use this to make a complete classification of a certain class of unitary representations...... of the groups, the so-called irreducible tame representations. We prove the existence of irreducible non-tame representations by constructing a compactification of the boundary of the tree - an object which until now has not played any role in the analysis of automorphism groups for trees which are not locally...

  3. RESEARCH ON VISUAL ANALYSIS METHODS OF TERRORISM EVENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Guo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Under the situation that terrorism events occur more and more frequency throughout the world, improving the response capability of social security incidents has become an important aspect to test governments govern ability. Visual analysis has become an important method of event analysing for its advantage of intuitive and effective. To analyse events’ spatio-temporal distribution characteristics, correlations among event items and the development trend, terrorism event’s spatio-temporal characteristics are discussed. Suitable event data table structure based on “5W” theory is designed. Then, six types of visual analysis are purposed, and how to use thematic map and statistical charts to realize visual analysis on terrorism events is studied. Finally, experiments have been carried out by using the data provided by Global Terrorism Database, and the results of experiments proves the availability of the methods.

  4. Multistate event history analysis with frailty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijwaard, G.E.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND In survival analysis a large literature using frailty models, or models with unobserved heterogeneity, exists. In the growing literature and modelling on multistate models, this issue is only in its infant phase. Ignoring frailty can, however, produce incorrect results. OBJECTIVE This

  5. A Fourier analysis of extremal events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yuwei

    is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

  6. Quantitative Analysis of Tree Species in Mixed Forests of Mandal Catchments, Garhwal Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balwant KUMAR

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available A total of 14 tree species were identified in the study sites, among which Quercus leucotrichophora Hook. F. (Banj oak, Rhododendron arboreum Smith (Burans, Lyonia ovalifolia Drude (Ayar and Pyrus pashia Buch-Hemp (Mehal are the predominant tree species. A quantitative analysis of tree species indicates that on the basis of their canopy cover, tree density and total base area, these study sites fall within the category of disturbed forest. The uncontrolled lopping for timber, firewood and leaf fodder and the absence of saplings and seedlings are some of the major factors responsible for the declining of forests in the Himalayan region.

  7. Repeated measures from FIA data facilitates analysis across spatial scales of tree growth responses to nitrogen deposition from individual trees to whole ecoregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Kevin J. Horn; R. Quinn Thomas; Linda H. Pardo; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Doug Baldwin; Gregory B. Lawrence; Scott W. Bailey; Sabine Braun; Christopher M. Clark; Mark Fenn; Annika Nordin; Jennifer N. Phelan; Paul G. Schaberg; Sam St. Clair; Richard Warby; Shaun Watmough; Steven S. Perakis

    2015-01-01

    The abundance of temporally and spatially consistent Forest Inventory and Analysis data facilitates hierarchical/multilevel analysis to investigate factors affecting tree growth, scaling from plot-level to continental scales. Herein we use FIA tree and soil inventories in conjunction with various spatial climate and soils data to estimate species-specific responses of...

  8. Building the Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert J. DeRose; John D. Shaw; James N. Long

    2017-01-01

    The Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis (IW-FIA) program measures forestland conditions at great extent with relatively high spatial resolution, including the collection of tree-ring data. We describe the development of an unprecedented spatial tree-ring data set for the IW-FIA that enhances the baseline plot data by incorporating ring-width increment measured...

  9. Tree or shrub: a functional branch analysis of Jatropha curcas L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tjeuw, J.; Mulia, R.; Slingerland, M.A.; Noordwijk, van M.

    2015-01-01

    Jatropha curcas is an oil-bearing semi-evergreen shrub or small tree with potential as a source of sustainable biofuel, yet information regarding vegetative and fruit biomass in relation to plant architecture is lacking. Research conducted in Indonesia used the tree based functional branch analysis

  10. Video analysis of motor events in REM sleep behavior disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauscher, Birgit; Gschliesser, Viola; Brandauer, Elisabeth; Ulmer, Hanno; Peralta, Cecilia M; Müller, Jörg; Poewe, Werner; Högl, Birgit

    2007-07-30

    In REM sleep behavior disorder (RBD), several studies focused on electromyographic characterization of motor activity, whereas video analysis has remained more general. The aim of this study was to undertake a detailed and systematic video analysis. Nine polysomnographic records from 5 Parkinson patients with RBD were analyzed and compared with sex- and age-matched controls. Each motor event in the video during REM sleep was classified according to duration, type of movement, and topographical distribution. In RBD, a mean of 54 +/- 23.2 events/10 minutes of REM sleep (total 1392) were identified and visually analyzed. Seventy-five percent of all motor events lasted Disorder Society

  11. Pinda: a web service for detection and analysis of intraspecies gene duplication events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontopoulos, Dimitrios-Georgios; Glykos, Nicholas M

    2013-09-01

    We present Pinda, a Web service for the detection and analysis of possible duplications of a given protein or DNA sequence within a source species. Pinda fully automates the whole gene duplication detection procedure, from performing the initial similarity searches, to generating the multiple sequence alignments and the corresponding phylogenetic trees, to bootstrapping the trees and producing a Z-score-based list of duplication candidates for the input sequence. Pinda has been cross-validated using an extensive set of known and bibliographically characterized duplication events. The service facilitates the automatic and dependable identification of gene duplication events, using some of the most successful bioinformatics software to perform an extensive analysis protocol. Pinda will prove of use for the analysis of newly discovered genes and proteins, thus also assisting the study of recently sequenced genomes. The service's location is http://orion.mbg.duth.gr/Pinda. The source code is freely available via https://github.com/dgkontopoulos/Pinda/. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile George MARICA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002. This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.

  13. Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bobbio, A.; Portinale, L.; Minichino, M.; Ciancamerla, E

    2001-03-01

    Bayesian Networks (BN) provide a robust probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty. They have been successfully applied in a variety of real-world tasks but they have received little attention in the area of dependability. The present paper is aimed at exploring the capabilities of the BN formalism in the analysis of dependable systems. To this end, the paper compares BN with one of the most popular techniques for dependability analysis of large, safety critical systems, namely Fault Trees (FT). The paper shows that any FT can be directly mapped into a BN and that basic inference techniques on the latter may be used to obtain classical parameters computed from the former (i.e. reliability of the Top Event or of any sub-system, criticality of components, etc). Moreover, by using BN, some additional power can be obtained, both at the modeling and at the analysis level. At the modeling level, several restrictive assumptions implicit in the FT methodology can be removed and various kinds of dependencies among components can be accommodated. At the analysis level, a general diagnostic analysis can be performed. The comparison of the two methodologies is carried out by means of a running example, taken from the literature, that consists of a redundant multiprocessor system.

  14. Simple street tree sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; James Baldwin; Jerry. Bond

    2015-01-01

    Information on street trees is critical for management of this important resource. Sampling of street tree populations provides an efficient means to obtain street tree population information. Long-term repeat measures of street tree samples supply additional information on street tree changes and can be used to report damages from catastrophic events. Analyses of...

  15. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  16. Development of the public exercise system for an emergency using response action applied with the event tree approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, De Whey; Lee, Byung Il; Park, Youn Won [BEES Inc., Rm No. L507, KAIST Munji Campus, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    According to APPRE (Act on Physical Protection and Radiological Emergency), Korea Nuclear Safety and Security Committee (NSSC) jointly with other central government ministries shall conduct a unified radiological exercise once every year while a local government conduct an integrated exercise once every two-year period. What we experience up to date there are several limitations in the emergency exercises such as low public acceptance, poor enthusiasm in the exercise participation, not very attracting exercise scenarios, low efficiency in conducting an exercise, and so on. In order to overcome the limitations of the current exercise system, we have endeavored to develop an emergency exercise system using the VR (virtual reality) method based on a radioactive material release accident from the nuclear power plant. In this paper, we aim to introduce some basic development methods and emergency response action event tree for the public based on the exercise scenario as a beginning stage. We introduce a VR based emergency exercise system, which is expected to overcome some difficulties in the current exercise system. After developing this system properly and by testing it, we shall expect to deduce the weak points identified in the current emergency arrangements and emergency response strategy we now have.

  17. Adverse events with use of antiepileptic drugs: a prescription and event symmetry analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsiropoulos, Ioannis; Andersen, Morten; Hallas, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: To assess adverse events with use of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) by the method of sequence symmetry analysis. METHODS: We used data from two population-based sources in Funen County, Denmark (population 2006: 479 000); prescription data from Odense University Pharmacoepidemiological Datab...

  18. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

    2016-12-01

    The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

  19. Fault tree analysis of fire and explosion accidents for dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ship engine rooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yifeng; Zhao, Jie; Shi, Tengfei; Zhu, Peipei

    2016-09-01

    In recent years, China's increased interest in environmental protection has led to a promotion of energy-efficient dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ships in Chinese inland rivers. A natural gas as ship fuel may pose dangers of fire and explosion if a gas leak occurs. If explosions or fires occur in the engine rooms of a ship, heavy damage and losses will be incurred. In this paper, a fault tree model is presented that considers both fires and explosions in a dual fuel ship; in this model, dual fuel engine rooms are the top events. All the basic events along with the minimum cut sets are obtained through the analysis. The primary factors that affect accidents involving fires and explosions are determined by calculating the degree of structure importance of the basic events. According to these results, corresponding measures are proposed to ensure and improve the safety and reliability of Chinese inland dual fuel ships.

  20. Comovements in government bond markets: A minimum spanning tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Claire G.; Lucey, Brian M.; Boscia, Marian W.

    2010-11-01

    The concept of a minimum spanning tree (MST) is used to study patterns of comovements for a set of twenty government bond market indices for developed North American, European, and Asian countries. We show how the MST and its related hierarchical tree evolve over time and describe the dynamic development of market linkages. Over the sample period, 1993-2008, linkages between markets have decreased somewhat. However, a subset of European Union (EU) bond markets does show increasing levels of comovements. The evolution of distinct groups within the Eurozone is also examined. The implications of our findings for portfolio diversification benefits are outlined.

  1. Can Religious Beliefs be a Protective Factor for Suicidal Behavior? A Decision Tree Analysis in a Mid-Sized City in Iran, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nakhaee, Nouzar; Jalali, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Akbari, Maryam

    2017-04-01

    This study aimed to assess using tree-based models the impact of different dimensions of religion and other risk factors on suicide attempts in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hundred patients who attempted suicide and 300 age- and sex-matched patient attendants with other types of disease who referred to Kerman Afzalipour Hospital were recruited for this study following a convenience sampling. Religiosity was assessed by the Duke University Religion Index. A tree-based model was constructed using the Gini Index as the homogeneity criterion. A complementary discrimination analysis was also applied. Variables contributing to the construction of the tree were stressful life events, mental disorder, family support, and religious belief. Strong religious belief was a protective factor for those with a low number of stressful life events and those with a high mental disorder score; 72 % of those who formed these two groups had not attempted suicide. Moreover, 63 % of those with a high number of stressful life events, strong family support, strong problem-solving skills, and a low mental disorder score were less likely to attempt suicide. The significance of four other variables, GHQ, problem-coping skills, friend support, and neuroticism, was revealed in the discrimination analysis. Religious beliefs seem to be an independent factor that can predict risk for suicidal behavior. Based on the decision tree, religious beliefs among people with a high number of stressful life events might not be a dissuading factor. Such subjects need more family support and problem-solving skills.

  2. Analysis of growth trend changes for 51 temperate tree species using Korea national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, M.; Moon, M.; Park, J.; Cho, S.; Kim, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    Individual tree growth rates can be affected by various factors such as species, soil fertility, stand development stage, disturbance, and climate etc. To estimate the effect of changes in tree growth rate on the structure and functionality of forest ecosystem in the future, we analyzed the change of species-specific growth trends using the fifth Korea national forest inventory data, which was collected from 2006 to 2010. The ring samples of average tree were collected from nationwide inventory plots and the total number of individual tree ring series was 69,128 covering 185 tree species. Among those, fifty one species with more than 100 tree ring series were used for our analysis. For growth-trend analysis, standardized regional curves of individual species growth were generated from three forest zone in South Korea; subarctic, cool temperate, warm temperate forest zone. Then individual tree ring series was indexed by dividing the growth of the tree by expected growth from standardized regional curves. Then the ratio of all tree ring series were aligned by year and the Spearman's correlation coefficient of each species was calculated. The results show that most of species had increasing growth rates as forests developed after Korean war. For the last thirty years, 67.3% of species including Quercus spp. and Zelkova serrata had positive growth trends, on the other hand, 11.5% of species including Pinus spp. showed negative growth trends probably due to the changes in successional stages in Korean forests and climate change. These trends also vary with climate zone and species. For examples, Pinus densiflora, which showed negative growth trend overall, had steep negative growth trends in boreal and temperate zone, whereas it showed no specific trend in sub-tropical climate zone. Our trend analysis on 51 temperate tree species growth will be essential to predict the temperate forests species change for the this century.

  3. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Holocene tree-line variability in the Kauner Valley, Central Eastern Alps, indicated by dendrochronological analysis of living trees and subfossil logs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nicolussi, Kurt; Kaufmann, Matthias; Patzelt, Gernot; van der Plicht, Johannes; Thurner, Andrea

    2005-01-01

    The altitude of the Alpine tree-line has often been used as proxy for the climatic conditions in the Holocene epoch. The usual approach for establishing a record for this proxy is the analysis of pollen and macro remains. We analysed living trees and subfossil logs from the timberline ecotone in the

  5. Analysis of forest naturalness and tree mortality patterns in Estonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.A. Stanturf

    2009-01-01

    New methods for evaluating structural properties of stands and individual tree mortality within forests are needed to enhance biodiversity assessment in forest inventories. One approach is to assess the degree of naturalness in a forest. We assessed forest naturalness by examining patterns and causes of mortality and deadwood amount and...

  6. Acoustic measurements on trees and logs: a review and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiping Wang

    2013-01-01

    Acoustic technologies have been well established as material evaluation tools in the past several decades, and their use has become widely accepted in the forest products industry for online quality control and products grading. Recent research developments on acoustic sensing technology offer further opportunities to evaluate standing trees and logs for general wood...

  7. Quantitative Attack Tree Analysis via Priced Timed Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, Rajesh; Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Sankaranarayanan, Sriram; Vicario, Enrico

    The success of a security attack crucially depends on the resources available to an attacker: time, budget, skill level, and risk appetite. Insight in these dependencies and the most vulnerable system parts is key to providing effective counter measures. This paper considers attack trees, one of the

  8. Time dependent analysis with dynamic counter measure trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, Rajesh; Guck, Dennis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    The success of a security attack crucially depends on time: the more time available to the attacker, the higher the probability of a successful attack. Formalisms such as Reliability block diagrams, Reliability graphs and Attack Countermeasure trees provide quantitative information about attack

  9. Economic analysis of tree improvement: A status report

    Science.gov (United States)

    George F. Dutrow

    1974-01-01

    Review of current literature establishes that most authors believe that tree improvement expands production, although some point out drawbacks and alternatives. Both softwood and hardwood improvement programs have been analyzed. The authors used various models, economic assumptions, and standards of measurement, but available data were limited. Future models shouId...

  10. Serious adverse events with infliximab: analysis of spontaneously reported adverse events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Richard A; Gartlehner, Gerald; Powell, Gregory E; Sandler, Robert S

    2007-06-01

    Serious adverse events such as bowel obstruction, heart failure, infection, lymphoma, and neuropathy have been reported with infliximab. The aims of this study were to explore adverse event signals with infliximab by using a long period of post-marketing experience, stratifying by indication. The relative reporting of infliximab adverse events to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was assessed with the public release version of the adverse event reporting system (AERS) database from 1968 to third quarter 2005. On the basis of a systematic review of adverse events, Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) terms were mapped to predefined categories of adverse events, including death, heart failure, hepatitis, infection, infusion reaction, lymphoma, myelosuppression, neuropathy, and obstruction. Disproportionality analysis was used to calculate the empiric Bayes geometric mean (EBGM) and corresponding 90% confidence intervals (EB05, EB95) for adverse event categories. Infliximab was identified as the suspect medication in 18,220 reports in the FDA AERS database. We identified a signal for lymphoma (EB05 = 6.9), neuropathy (EB05 = 3.8), infection (EB05 = 2.9), and bowel obstruction (EB05 = 2.8). The signal for granulomatous infections was stronger than the signal for non-granulomatous infections (EB05 = 12.6 and 2.4, respectively). The signals for bowel obstruction and infusion reaction were specific to patients with IBD; this suggests potential confounding by indication, especially for bowel obstruction. In light of this additional evidence of risk of lymphoma, neuropathy, and granulomatous infections, clinicians should stress this risk in the shared decision-making process.

  11. Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

  12. Tips for teachers of evidence-based medicine: making sense of decision analysis using a decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anna; Joynt, Gavin M; Ho, Anthony M H; Keitz, Sheri; McGinn, Thomas; Wyer, Peter C

    2009-05-01

    Decision analysis is a tool that clinicians can use to choose an option that maximizes the overall net benefit to a patient. It is an explicit, quantitative, and systematic approach to decision making under conditions of uncertainty. In this article, we present two teaching tips aimed at helping clinical learners understand the use and relevance of decision analysis. The first tip demonstrates the structure of a decision tree. With this tree, a clinician may identify the optimal choice among complicated options by calculating probabilities of events and incorporating patient valuations of possible outcomes. The second tip demonstrates how to address uncertainty regarding the estimates used in a decision tree. We field tested the tips twice with interns and senior residents. Teacher preparatory time was approximately 90 minutes. The field test utilized a board and a calculator. Two handouts were prepared. Learners identified the importance of incorporating values into the decision-making process as well as the role of uncertainty. The educational objectives appeared to be reached. These teaching tips introduce clinical learners to decision analysis in a fashion aimed to illustrate principles of clinical reasoning and how patient values can be actively incorporated into complex decision making.

  13. Radiation densitometry in tree-ring analysis: a review and procedure manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, M.L.; Taylor, F.G.; Doyle, T.W.; Foster, B.E.; Cooper, C.; West, D.C.

    1985-01-01

    An x-ray densitometry of wood facility is being established by the Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge Natioanl Laboratory (ORNL). The objective is to apply tree-ring data to determine whether or not there is a fertilizer effect on tree growth from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial era. Intra-ring width and density data, including ring-mass will be detemined from tree-ring samples collected from sites located throughout the United States and Canada. This report is designed as a guide to assist ORNL scientists in building the x-ray densitometry system. The history and development of x-ray densitometry in tree-ring research is examined and x-ray densitometry is compared with other techniques. Relative wood and tree characteristics are described as are environmental and genetic factors affecting tree growth responses. Methods in x-ray densitometry are examined in detail and the techniques used at four operating laboratories are described. Some ways that dendrochronology has been applied in dating, in wood quality, and environmental studies are presented, and a number of tree-ring studies in Canada are described. An annotated bibliography of radiation densitometry in tree-ring analysis and related subjects is included.

  14. Geostatistical analysis of tree size distributions in the southern Kalahari obtained from remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustakas, Aristides; Chorti, Arsenia; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

    2007-10-01

    We propose using geostatistical methods for the spatial analysis of data pertaining to the size of trees (in terms of canopy surface area) obtained by means of remote sensing methods. Geostatistical methods are suitable because the locations of the trees are at the nodes of an unstructured grid. More specifically, we present a semivariogram analysis to detect correlations in the tree size spatial distribution, and we apply a novel method of anisotropy analysis to search for possible anisotropy in the size distribution. We use a combination of aerial photographs and satellite images in four snapshots covering 37 years to investigate the temporal behavior in addition to the spatial distribution at a single time. The aerial photographs were taken in 1964, 1984, 1993, and the IKONOS satellite image in 2001. We follow a study area covering over 139 ha and over 2,000 tree individuals. Our plots are located in the Southern Kalahari savanna near the city of Kimberley, South Africa.

  15. Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

    2017-08-16

    The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

  16. A representation and classification scheme for tree-like structures in medical images: an application on branching pattern analysis of ductal trees in x-ray galactograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megalooikonomou, Vasileios; Kontos, Despina; Danglemaier, Joseph; Javadi, Ailar; Bakic, Predrag R.; Maidment, Andrew D. A.

    2006-03-01

    We propose a multi-step approach for representing and classifying tree-like structures in medical images. Examples of such tree-like structures are encountered in the bronchial system, the vessel topology and the breast ductal network. We assume that the tree-like structures are already segmented. To avoid the tree isomorphism problem we obtain the breadth-first canonical form of a tree. Our approach is based on employing tree encoding techniques, such as the depth-first string encoding and the Prüfer encoding, to obtain a symbolic representation. Thus, the problem of classifying trees is reduced to string classification where node labels are the string terms. We employ the tf-idf text mining technique to assign a weight of significance to each string term (i.e., tree node label). We perform similarity searches and k-nearest neighbor classification of the trees using the tf-idf weight vectors and the cosine similarity metric. We applied our approach to the breast ductal network manually extracted from clinical x-ray galactograms. The goal was to characterize the ductal tree-like parenchymal structures in order to distinguish among different groups of women. Our best classification accuracy reached up to 90% for certain experimental settings (k=4), outperforming on the average by 10% that of a previous state-of-the-art method based on ramification matrices. These results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in analyzing tree-like patterns in breast images. Developing such automated tools for the analysis of tree-like structures in medical images can potentially provide insight to the relationship between the topology of branching and function or pathology.

  17. Statistical Analysis of Loss of Offsite Power Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrija Volkanovski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis of the loss of offsite power events (LOOP registered in four reviewed databases. The reviewed databases include the IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire SAPIDE database and the GRS (Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH VERA database reviewed over the period from 1992 to 2011. The US NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission Licensee Event Reports (LERs database and the IAEA International Reporting System (IRS database were screened for relevant events registered over the period from 1990 to 2013. The number of LOOP events in each year in the analysed period and mode of operation are assessed during the screening. The LOOP frequencies obtained for the French and German nuclear power plants (NPPs during critical operation are of the same order of magnitude with the plant related events as a dominant contributor. A frequency of one LOOP event per shutdown year is obtained for German NPPs in shutdown mode of operation. For the US NPPs, the obtained LOOP frequency for critical and shutdown mode is comparable to the one assessed in NUREG/CR-6890. Decreasing trend is obtained for the LOOP events registered in three databases (IRSN, GRS, and NRC.

  18. Microprocessor event analysis in parallel with CAMAC data acquisition

    CERN Document Server

    Cords, D; Riege, H

    1981-01-01

    The Plessey MIPROC-16 microprocessor (16 bits, 250 ns execution time) has been connected to a CAMAC System (GEC-ELLIOTT System Crate) and shares the CAMAC access with a Nord-10S computer. Interfaces have been designed and tested for execution of CAMAC cycles, communication with the Nord-10S computer and DMA-transfer from CAMAC to the MIPROC-16 memory. The system is used in the JADE data-acquisition-system at PETRA where it receives the data from the detector in parallel with the Nord-10S computer via DMA through the indirect-data-channel mode. The microprocessor performs an on-line analysis of events and the results of various checks is appended to the event. In case of spurious triggers or clear beam gas events, the Nord-10S buffer will be reset and the event omitted from further processing. (5 refs).

  19. Spectral analysis for weighted tree-like fractals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Meifeng; Chen, Yufei; Wang, Xiaoqian; Sun, Yu; Su, Weiyi

    2018-02-01

    Much information about the structural properties and dynamical aspects of a network is measured by the eigenvalues of its normalized Laplacian matrix. In this paper, we aim to present a study on the spectra of the normalized Laplacian of weighted tree-like fractals. We analytically obtain the relationship between the eigenvalues and their multiplicities for two successive generations. As an example of application of these results, we then derive closed-form expressions for their multiplicative Kirchhoff index and Kemeny's constant.

  20. Systems Analysis of Ten Supply Chains for Whole Tree Chips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmer Belbo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Whole trees from energy thinnings constitute one of many forest fuel sources, yet ten widely applied supply chains could be defined for this feedstock alone. These ten represent only a subset of the real possibilities, as felling method was held constant and only a single market (combustion of whole tree chips was considered. Stages included in-field, roadside landing, terminal, and conversion plant, and biomass states at each of these included loose whole trees, bundled whole trees or chipped material. Assumptions on prices, performances, and conversion rates were based on field trials and published literature in similar boreal forest conditions. The economic outcome was calculated on the basis of production, handling, treatment and storage costs and losses. Outcomes were tested for robustness on a range of object volumes (50–350 m3solid, extraction distances (50–550 m and transport distances (10–70 km using simulation across a set of discrete values. Transport was calculated for both a standard 19.5 m and an extended 24 m timber truck. Results showed that the most expensive chain (roadside bundling, roadside storage, terminal storage and delivery using a 19.5 m timber truck at 158 € td−1 was 23% more costly than the cheapest chain (roadside chipping and direct transport to conversion plant with container truck, at 128 € td−1. Outcomes vary at specific object volumes and transport distances, highlighting the need to verify assumptions, although standard deviations around mean supply costs for each chain were small (6%–9%. Losses at all stages were modelled, with the largest losses (23 € td−1 occurring in the chains including bundles. The study makes all methods and assumptions explicit and can assist the procurement manager in understanding the mechanisms at work.

  1. Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

    2018-01-19

    OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

  2. Use of Tritium Accelerator Mass Spectrometry for Tree Ring Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    LOVE, ADAM H.; HUNT, JAMES R.; ROBERTS, MARK L.; SOUTHON, JOHN R.; CHIARAPPA - ZUCCA, MARINA L.; DINGLEY, KAREN H.

    2010-01-01

    Public concerns over the health effects associated with low-level and long-term exposure to tritium released from industrial point sources have generated the demand for better methods to evaluate historical tritium exposure levels for these communities. The cellulose of trees accurately reflects the tritium concentration in the source water and may contain the only historical record of tritium exposure. The tritium activity in the annual rings of a tree was measured using accelerator mass spectrometry to reconstruct historical annual averages of tritium exposure. Milligram-sized samples of the annual tree rings from a Tamarix located at the Nevada Test Site are used for validation of this methodology. The salt cedar was chosen since it had a single source of tritiated water that was well-characterized as it varied over time. The decay-corrected tritium activity of the water in which the salt cedar grew closely agrees with the organically bound tritium activity in its annual rings. This demonstrates that the milligram-sized samples used in tritium accelerator mass spectrometry are suited for reconstructing anthropogenic tritium levels in the environment. PMID:12144257

  3. An Analysis on Performance of Decision Tree Algorithms using Student’s Qualitative Data

    OpenAIRE

    T.Miranda Lakshmi; A.Martin; R.Mumtaj Begum; V.Prasanna Venkatesan

    2013-01-01

    Decision Tree is the most widely applied supervised classification technique. The learning and classification steps of decision tree induction are simple and fast and it can be applied to any domain. In this research student qualitative data has been taken from educational data mining and the performance analysis of the decision tree algorithm ID3, C4.5 and CART are compared. The comparison result shows that the Gini Index of CART influence information Gain Ratio of ID3 and C4.5. The classif...

  4. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

    2010-11-15

    The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2016-01-01

    Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

  6. Radar rainfall estimation in the context of post-event analysis of flash-flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delrieu, G.; Bouilloud, L.; Boudevillain, B.; Kirstetter, P.-E.; Borga, M.

    2009-09-01

    This communication is about a methodology for radar rainfall estimation in the context of post-event analysis of flash-flood events developed within the HYDRATE project. For such extreme events, some raingauge observations (operational, amateur) are available at the event time scale, while few raingauge time series are generally available at the hydrologic time steps. Radar data is therefore the only way to access to the rainfall space-time organization, but the quality of the radar data may be highly variable as a function of (1) the relative locations of the event and the radar(s) and (2) the radar operating protocol(s) and maintenance. A positive point: heavy rainfall is associated with convection implying better visibility and lesser bright band contamination compared with more current situations. In parallel with the development of a regionalized and adaptive radar data processing system (TRADHy; Delrieu et al. 2009), a pragmatic approach is proposed here to make best use of the available radar and raingauge data for a given flash-flood event by: (1) Identifying and removing residual ground clutter, (2) Applying the "hydrologic visibility" concept (Pellarin et al. 2002) to correct for range-dependent errors (screening and VPR effects for non-attenuating wavelengths, (3) Estimating an effective Z-R relationship through a radar-raingauge optimization approach to remove the mean field bias (Dinku et al. 2002) A sensitivity study, based on the high-quality volume radar datasets collected during two intense rainfall events of the Bollène 2002 experiment (Delrieu et al. 2009), is first proposed. Then the method is implemented for two other historical events occurred in France (Avène 1997 and Aude 1999) with datasets of lesser quality. References: Delrieu, G., B. Boudevillain, J. Nicol, B. Chapon, P.-E. Kirstetter, H. Andrieu, and D. Faure, 2009: Bollène 2002 experiment: radar rainfall estimation in the Cévennes-Vivarais region, France. Journal of Applied

  7. Understanding Climate-Vegetation Interactions in Global Rainforests Through a GP-Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodali, Anuradha; Szubert, Marcin; Ganguly, Sangram; Bongard, Joshua; Das, Kamalika

    2017-01-01

    The tropical rainforests are the largest reserves of terrestrial carbon sink and therefore, the future of these rainforests is a question that is of immense importance in the geoscience research community. With the recent severe Amazonian droughts in 2005 and 2010 and ongoing drought since 2000 in the Congo region there is growing concern that these forests could succumb to precipitation reduction, causing extensive carbon release and feedback to the carbon cycle. Contradicting research has claimed that these forests are resilient to such extreme climatic events. A significant reason behind these diverse conclusions is the lack of a holistic spatio-temporal analysis of the remote sensing data available for these regions. Small scale studies that use statistical correlation measure and simple linear regression to model the climate-vegetation interactions have suffered from the lack of complete data representation and the use of simple (linear) models that fail to represent physical processes accurately, thereby leading to inconclusive or incorrect predictions about the future. In this paper we use a genetic programming (GP) based approach called symbolic regression for discovering equations that govern the vegetation climate dynamics in the rainforests. Expecting micro-regions within the rainforests to have unique characteristics compared to the overall general characteristics, we use a modified regression-tree based hierarchical partitioning of the space and build a nonlinear GP model for each partition. The discovery of these equations reveal very interesting characteristics about the Amazon and the Congo rainforests. Overall it shows that the rainforests exhibit tremendous resiliency in the face of severe droughts. Based on the partitioning of the observed data points, we can conclude that in the absence of adequate precipitation, the trees adopt to reach a different steady state and recover as soon as precipitation is back to normal.

  8. Use of the event tree method for evaluate the safety of radioactive facilities; Utilizacion del metodo de arboles de eventos para evaluar la seguridad de instalaciones radiactivas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez S, A.; Cornejo D, N.; Callis F, E. [CPHR, Calle 20 No. 4113, e/41 y 47 Playa, CP 11300, La Habana (Cuba)]. e-mail: ale@cphr.edu.cu

    2006-07-01

    The work shows the validity of the use of Trees of Events like a quantitative method appropriate to carry out evaluations of radiological safety. Its were took like base the evaluations of safety of five Radiotherapy Departments, carried out in the mark of the process of authorization of these facilities. The risk values were obtained by means of the combination of the probabilities of occurrence of the events with its consequences. The use of the method allowed to suggest improvements to the existent safety systems, as well as to confirm that the current regulator requirements for this type of facilities to lead to practices with acceptable risk levels. (Author)

  9. Event history analysis and the cross-section

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels

    2006-01-01

    Examples are given of problems in event history analysis, where several time origins (generating calendar time, age, disease duration, time on study, etc.) are considered simultaneously. The focus is on complex sampling patterns generated around a cross-section. A basic tool is the Lexis diagram....

  10. Bi-Level Semantic Representation Analysis for Multimedia Event Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Xiaojun; Ma, Zhigang; Yang, Yi; Zeng, Zhiqiang; Hauptmann, Alexander G

    2017-05-01

    Multimedia event detection has been one of the major endeavors in video event analysis. A variety of approaches have been proposed recently to tackle this problem. Among others, using semantic representation has been accredited for its promising performance and desirable ability for human-understandable reasoning. To generate semantic representation, we usually utilize several external image/video archives and apply the concept detectors trained on them to the event videos. Due to the intrinsic difference of these archives, the resulted representation is presumable to have different predicting capabilities for a certain event. Notwithstanding, not much work is available for assessing the efficacy of semantic representation from the source-level. On the other hand, it is plausible to perceive that some concepts are noisy for detecting a specific event. Motivated by these two shortcomings, we propose a bi-level semantic representation analyzing method. Regarding source-level, our method learns weights of semantic representation attained from different multimedia archives. Meanwhile, it restrains the negative influence of noisy or irrelevant concepts in the overall concept-level. In addition, we particularly focus on efficient multimedia event detection with few positive examples, which is highly appreciated in the real-world scenario. We perform extensive experiments on the challenging TRECVID MED 2013 and 2014 datasets with encouraging results that validate the efficacy of our proposed approach.

  11. Recognition of Protozoa and Metazoa using image analysis tools, discriminant analysis, neural networks and decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoris, Y P; Amaral, A L; Nicolau, A; Coelho, M A Z; Ferreira, E C

    2007-07-09

    Protozoa and metazoa are considered good indicators of the treatment quality in activated sludge systems due to the fact that these organisms are fairly sensitive to physical, chemical and operational processes. Therefore, it is possible to establish close relationships between the predominance of certain species or groups of species and several operational parameters of the plant, such as the biotic indices, namely the Sludge Biotic Index (SBI). This procedure requires the identification, classification and enumeration of the different species, which is usually achieved manually implying both time and expertise availability. Digital image analysis combined with multivariate statistical techniques has proved to be a useful tool to classify and quantify organisms in an automatic and not subjective way. This work presents a semi-automatic image analysis procedure for protozoa and metazoa recognition developed in Matlab language. The obtained morphological descriptors were analyzed using discriminant analysis, neural network and decision trees multivariable statistical techniques to identify and classify each protozoan or metazoan. The obtained procedure was quite adequate for distinguishing between the non-sessile protozoa classes and also for the metazoa classes, with high values for the overall species recognition with the exception of sessile protozoa. In terms of the wastewater conditions assessment the obtained results were found to be suitable for the prediction of these conditions. Finally, the discriminant analysis and neural networks results were found to be quite similar whereas the decision trees technique was less appropriate.

  12. Using the DOE Knowledge Base for Special Event Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Armstrong, H.M.; Harris, J.M.; Young, C.J.

    1998-10-20

    The DOE Knowledge Base is a library of detailed information whose purpose is to support the United States National Data Center (USNDC) in its mission to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). One of the important tasks which the USNDC must accomplish is to periodically perform detailed analysis of events of high interest, so-called "Special Events", to provide the national authority with information needed to make policy decisions. In this paper we investigate some possible uses of the Knowledge Base for Special Event Analysis (SEA), and make recommendations for improving Knowledge Base support for SEA. To analyze an event in detail, there are two basic types of data which must be used sensor-derived data (wave- forms, arrivals, events, etc.) and regiohalized contextual data (known sources, geological characteristics, etc.). Cur- rently there is no single package which can provide full access to both types of data, so for our study we use a separate package for each MatSeis, the Sandia Labs-developed MATLAB-based seismic analysis package, for wave- form data analysis, and ArcView, an ESRI product, for contextual data analysis. Both packages are well-suited to pro- totyping because they provide a rich set of currently available functionality and yet are also flexible and easily extensible, . Using these tools and Phase I Knowledge Base data sets, we show how the Knowledge Base can improve both the speed and the quality of SEA. Empirically-derived interpolated correction information can be accessed to improve both location estimates and associated error estimates. This information can in turn be used to identi~ any known nearby sources (e.g. mines, volcanos), which may then trigger specialized processing of the sensor data. Based on the location estimate, preferred magnitude formulas and discriminants can be retrieved, and any known blockages can be identified to prevent miscalculations. Relevant historic events can be identilled either by

  13. An analysis of the 2016 Hitomi breakup event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flegel, Sven; Bennett, James; Lachut, Michael; Möckel, Marek; Smith, Craig

    2017-04-01

    The breakup of Hitomi (ASTRO-H) on 26 March 2016 is analysed. Debris from the fragmentation is used to estimate the time of the event by propagating backwards and estimating the close approach with the parent object. Based on this method, the breakup event is predicted to have occurred at approximately 01:42 UTC on 26 March 2016. The Gaussian variation of parameters equations based on the instantaneous orbits at the predicted time of the event are solved to gain additional insight into the on-orbit position of Hitomi at the time of the event and to test an alternate approach of determining the event epoch and location. A conjunction analysis is carried out between Hitomi and all catalogued objects which were in orbit around the estimated time of the anomaly. Several debris objects have close approaches with Hitomi; however, there is no evidence to support the breakup was caused by a catalogued object. Debris from both of the largest fragmentation events—the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 conjunction in 2009 and the intentional destruction of Fengyun 1C in 2007—is involved in close approaches with Hitomi indicating the persistent threat these events have caused in subsequent space missions. To quantify the magnitude of a potential conjunction, the fragmentation resulting from a collision with the debris is modelled using the EVOLVE-4 breakup model. The debris characteristics are estimated from two-line element data. This analysis is indicative of the threat to space assets that mission planners face due to the growing debris population. The impact of the actual event to the environment is investigated based on the debris associated with Hitomi which is currently contained in the United States Strategic Command's catalogue. A look at the active missions in the orbital vicinity of Hitomi reveals that the Hubble Space Telescope is among the spacecraft which may be immediately affected by the new debris.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  14. Real-Time and Delayed Analysis of Tree and Shrub Cores as Indicators of Subsurface Volatile Organic Compound Contamination, Durham Meadows Superfund Site, Durham, Connecticut, August 29, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vroblesky, Don A.; Willey, Richard E.; Clifford, Scott; Murphy, James J.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined volatile organic compound concentrations in cores from trees and shrubs for use as indicators of vadose-zone contamination or potential vapor intrusion by volatile organic compounds into buildings at the Durham Meadows Superfund Site, Durham, Connecticut. The study used both (1) real-time tree- and shrub-core analysis, which involved field heating the core samples for 5 to 10 minutes prior to field analysis, and (2) delayed analysis, which involved allowing the gases in the cores to equilibrate with the headspace gas in the sample vials unheated for 1 to 2 days prior to analysis. General correspondence was found between the two approaches, indicating that preheating and field analysis of vegetation cores is a viable approach to real-time monitoring of subsurface volatile organic compounds. In most cases, volatile organic compounds in cores from trees and shrubs at the Merriam Manufacturing Company property showed a general correspondence to the distribution of volatile organic compounds detected in a soil-gas survey, despite the fact that most of the soil-gas survey data in close proximity to the relevant trees were collected about 3 years prior to the tree-core collection. Most of the trees cored at the Durham Meadows Superfund Site, outside of the Merriam Manufacturing Company property, contained no volatile organic compounds and were in areas where indoor air sampling and soil-gas sampling showed little or no volatile organic compound concentrations. An exception was tree DM11, which contained barely detectable concentrations of trichloroethene near a house where previous investigations found low concentrations of trichloroethene (0.13 to 1.2 parts per billion by volume) in indoor air and 7.7 micrograms per liter of trichloroethene in the ground water. The barely detectable concentration of trichloroethene in tree DM11 and the lack of volatile organic compound detection in nearby tree DM10 (adjacent to the well having 7.7 micrograms of

  15. Analysis of electrical tree ageing in silicone rubber by physicochemical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y. X.; Nie, Q.; Chen, Z. Z.; Liu, R.

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, the characteristics of electrical tree ageing in silicone rubber (SIR) under AC voltage were studied. The electrical tree initiation rate is 20% after the application of 6 kV AC voltage for 1000 hours. Samples are separated into three kinds according to processes of electrical tree formation: virgin samples without voltage application, non-treed samples without electrical tree formation after 1000 hours and treed samples with electrical tree formation after 1000 hours. Certain physicochemical diagnostic tests were carried out to understand the degradation of material, ascribed to long-time voltage application, using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric-differential thermal analysis (TG-DTA). Physicochemical analyses, especially the DSC results, show that no additional phases are formed in the processes of electrical tree ageing in SIR. Reduction of the melting point and crystallinity of SIR is observed in the sequence of virgin samples, non-treed samples and treed samples. The activation energy values were calculated from the TG-DTA data. Compared to virgin samples, obvious reduction of activation energy value is observed in non-treed samples. Degradation in SIR has already occurred before electrical tree formation and charge injection and extraction by high field electrode under AC voltage is regarded as the reason.

  16. Automatic Predicate Argument Analysis of the Penn TreeBank

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palmer, Martha; Rosenzweig, Joseph; Cotton, Scott

    2001-01-01

    ... had/presided over a meeting/conference with B There are several different lexical items that can be used to refer to the same type of event, and several different predicate argument patterns that can be...

  17. Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokria, Mulugeta; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Abiyu, Abrham; Van Noordwijk, Meine; Bräuning, Achim

    2017-12-01

    Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Identification and Analysis of Full Scale Ventilation Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Savio

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with propeller ventilation in full scale. The paper is based on full scale monitoring data from an offshore supply ship during normal operation. The data was collected by the on-line monitoring system HeMoS, developed by Rolls Royce Marine. The data covering one year and a half of ship operations were made available within the framework of the Era-Net Martec project PropSeas. The ventilation events are identified by means of an analysis procedure based on fuzzy logic. The paper contains both a basic introduction to fuzzy logic and a detailed description of the analysis procedure. The analysis procedure is then adopted to process the available data, find ventilation events, and form a set which is further analyzed including weather observations.

  19. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  20. [Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

    2017-08-15

    Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  1. Ion Uptake Determination of Dendrochronologically-Dated Trees Using Neutron Activation Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenan Unlu; P.I. Kuniholm; D.K.H. Schwarz; N.O. Cetiner; J.J. Chiment

    2009-03-30

    Uptake of metal ions by plan roots is a function of the type and concentration of metal in the soil, the nutrient biochemistry of the plant, and the immediate environment of the root. Uptake of gold (Au) is known to be sensitive to soil pH for many species. Soil acidification due to acid precipitation following volcanic eruptions can dramatically increase Au uptake by trees. Identification of high Au content in tree rings in dendrochronologically-dated, overlapping sequences of trees allows the identification of temporally-conscribed, volcanically-influenced periods of environmental change. Ion uptake, specifically determination of trace amounts of gold, was performed for dendrochronologically-dated tree samples utilizing Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) technique. The concentration of gold was correlated with known enviironmental changes, e.g. volcanic activities, during historic periods.

  2. Ship Engine Room Casualty Analysis by Using Decision Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ömür Yaşar SAATÇİOĞLU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Ships may encounter undesirable conditions during operations. In consequence of a casualty, fire, explosion, flooding, grounding, injury even death may occur. Besides, these results can be avoidable with precautions and preventive operating processes. In maritime transportation, casualties depend on various factors. These were listed as misuse of the engine equipment and tools, defective machinery or equipment, inadequacy of operational procedure and measure of safety and force majeure effects. Casualty reports which were published in Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Canada and United States until 2015 were examined and the probable causes and consequences of casualties were determined with their occurrence percentages. In this study, 89 marine investigation reports regarding engine room casualties were analyzed. Casualty factors were analyzed with their frequency percentages and also their main causes were constructed. This study aims to investigate engine room based casualties, frequency of each casualty type and main causes by using decision tree method.

  3. Integrating pedestrian simulation, tracking and event detection for crowd analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Butenuth, Matthias; Burkert, Florian; Kneidl, Angelika; Borrmann, Andre; Schmidt, Florian; Hinz, Stefan; Sirmacek, Beril; Hartmann, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an overall framework for crowd analysis is presented. Detection and tracking of pedestrians as well as detection of dense crowds is performed on image sequences to improve simulation models of pedestrian flows. Additionally, graph-based event detection is performed by using Hidden Markov Models on pedestrian trajectories utilizing knowledge from simulations. Experimental results show the benefit of our integrated framework using simulation and real-world data for crowd anal...

  4. Practical guidance for statistical analysis of operational event data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents ways to avoid mistakes that are sometimes made in analysis of operational event data. It then gives guidance on what to do when a model is rejected, a list of standard types of models to consider, and principles for choosing one model over another. For estimating reliability, it gives advice on which failure modes to model, and moment formulas for combinations of failure modes. The issues are illustrated with many examples and case studies.

  5. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  6. Biochemical analysis of 'kerosene tree' Hymenaea courbaril L. under heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Dinesh; Eldakak, Moustafa; Rohila, Jai S; Basu, Chhandak

    2014-01-01

    Hymenaea courbaril or jatoba is a tropical tree known for its medically important secondary metabolites production. Considering climate change, the goal of this study was to investigate differential expression of proteins and lipids produced by this tree under heat stress conditions. Total lipid was extracted from heat stressed plant leaves and various sesquiterpenes produced by the tree under heat stress were identified. Gas chromatographic and mass spectrometric analysis were used to study lipid and volatile compounds produced by the plant. Several volatiles, isoprene, 2-methyl butanenitrile, β ocimene and a numbers of sesquiterpenes differentially produced by the plant under heat stress were identified. We propose these compounds were produced by the tree to cope up with heat stress. A protein gel electrophoresis (2-D DIGE) was performed to study differential expression of proteins in heat stressed plants. Several proteins were found to be expressed many folds different in heat stressed plants compared to the control. These proteins included heat shock proteins, histone proteins, oxygen evolving complex, and photosynthetic proteins, which, we believe, played key roles in imparting thermotolerance in Hymenaea tree. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of extensive molecular physiological study of Hymenaea trees under heat stress. This work will open avenues of further research on effects of heat stress in Hymenaea and the findings can be applied to understand how global warming can affect physiology of other plants.

  7. 23 March 2015 - Tree planting ceremony Chemin Auguer, by His Holiness the XIIth Gyalwang Drukpa and CERN Director-General, on the occasion of the event Connecting Worlds: Science Meets Buddhism Great Minds, Great Matters.

    CERN Multimedia

    Brice, Maximilien

    2015-01-01

    23 March 2015 - Tree planting ceremony Chemin Auguer, by His Holiness the XIIth Gyalwang Drukpa and CERN Director-General, on the occasion of the event Connecting Worlds: Science Meets Buddhism Great Minds, Great Matters.

  8. Not seeing the forest for the trees: size of the minimum spanning trees (MSTs) forest and branch significance in MST-based phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Andreia Sofia; Monteiro, Pedro T; Carriço, João A; Ramirez, Mário; Francisco, Alexandre P

    2015-01-01

    Trees, including minimum spanning trees (MSTs), are commonly used in phylogenetic studies. But, for the research community, it may be unclear that the presented tree is just a hypothesis, chosen from among many possible alternatives. In this scenario, it is important to quantify our confidence in both the trees and the branches/edges included in such trees. In this paper, we address this problem for MSTs by introducing a new edge betweenness metric for undirected and weighted graphs. This spanning edge betweenness metric is defined as the fraction of equivalent MSTs where a given edge is present. The metric provides a per edge statistic that is similar to that of the bootstrap approach frequently used in phylogenetics to support the grouping of taxa. We provide methods for the exact computation of this metric based on the well known Kirchhoff's matrix tree theorem. Moreover, we implement and make available a module for the PHYLOViZ software and evaluate the proposed metric concerning both effectiveness and computational performance. Analysis of trees generated using multilocus sequence typing data (MLST) and the goeBURST algorithm revealed that the space of possible MSTs in real data sets is extremely large. Selection of the edge to be represented using bootstrap could lead to unreliable results since alternative edges are present in the same fraction of equivalent MSTs. The choice of the MST to be presented, results from criteria implemented in the algorithm that must be based in biologically plausible models.

  9. Event-by-event analysis of high multiplicity Pb(158 GeV/nucleon)-Ag/Br collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherry, M.L.; Deines-Jones, P. [Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge (United States); Dabrowska, A. [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)] [and others; KLM Collaboration

    1998-08-01

    High multiplicity nucleus-nucleus collisions are studied on an event-by- event basis. Different methods of analysis of individual collision events are presented and their ability to reveal anomalous features of the events is discussed. This study is based on full acceptance measurements of particle production in the interactions of 158 GeV/nucleon Pb with the heavy target nuclei in nuclear emulsion. No events are observed with global characteristics that differ significantly from expectations based on either Monte Carlo simulations, or the characteristics of the entire sample of events. On the other hand, it is shown that systematic analysis of particle density fluctuations in phase space domains of varying size, performed in terms of factorial moments, can be used as an effective triggering for events with large dynamical fluctuations. (author) 17 refs, 7 figs, 3 tabs

  10. Analysis of large Danube flood events at Vienna since 1700

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea; Blöschl, Günter; Hohensinner, Severin; Perdigao, Rui

    2014-05-01

    Whereas Danube water level measurements are available in Vienna from 1820 onwards, documentary evidence plays a significant role in the long-term understanding of Danube hydrological processes. Based on contemporary documentary evidence and early instrumental measurements, in the present paper we aim to provide an overview and a hydrological analysis of major Danube flood events, and the changes occurred in flood behaviour in Vienna in the last 300 years. Historical flood events are discussed and analysed according to types, seasonality, frequency and magnitude. Concerning historical flood events we apply a classification of five-scaled indices that considers height, magnitude, length and impacts. The rich data coverage in Vienna, both in terms of documentary evidence and early instrumental measurements, provide us with the possibility to create a relatively long overlap between documentary evidence and instrumental measurements. This makes possible to evaluate and, to some extent, improve the index reconstruction. While detecting causes of changes in flood regime, we aim to provide an overview on the atmospheric background through some characteristic examples, selected great flood events (e.g. 1787). Moreover, we also seek for the answer for such questions as in what way early (pre-instrumental period) human impact such as water regulations and urban development changed flood behaviour in the town, and how much it might have an impact on flood classification.

  11. Performance Analysis: Work Control Events Identified January - August 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Grange, C E; Freeman, J W; Kerr, C E; Holman, G; Marsh, K; Beach, R

    2011-01-14

    This performance analysis evaluated 24 events that occurred at LLNL from January through August 2010. The analysis identified areas of potential work control process and/or implementation weaknesses and several common underlying causes. Human performance improvement and safety culture factors were part of the causal analysis of each event and were analyzed. The collective significance of all events in 2010, as measured by the occurrence reporting significance category and by the proportion of events that have been reported to the DOE ORPS under the ''management concerns'' reporting criteria, does not appear to have increased in 2010. The frequency of reporting in each of the significance categories has not changed in 2010 compared to the previous four years. There is no change indicating a trend in the significance category and there has been no increase in the proportion of occurrences reported in the higher significance category. Also, the frequency of events, 42 events reported through August 2010, is not greater than in previous years and is below the average of 63 occurrences per year at LLNL since 2006. Over the previous four years, an average of 43% of the LLNL's reported occurrences have been reported as either ''management concerns'' or ''near misses.'' In 2010, 29% of the occurrences have been reported as ''management concerns'' or ''near misses.'' This rate indicates that LLNL is now reporting fewer ''management concern'' and ''near miss'' occurrences compared to the previous four years. From 2008 to the present, LLNL senior management has undertaken a series of initiatives to strengthen the work planning and control system with the primary objective to improve worker safety. In 2008, the LLNL Deputy Director established the Work Control Integrated Project Team to develop the core requirements and graded

  12. Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

    2017-03-01

    Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

  13. Early Yield Prediction Using Image Analysis of Apple Fruit and Tree Canopy Features with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: Since early yield prediction is relevant for resource requirements of harvesting and marketing in the whole fruit industry, this paper presents a new approach of using image analysis and tree canopy features to predict early yield with artificial neural networks (ANN; (2 Methods: Two back propagation neural network (BPNN models were developed for the early period after natural fruit drop in June and the ripening period, respectively. Within the same periods, images of apple cv. “Gala” trees were captured from an orchard near Bonn, Germany. Two sample sets were developed to train and test models; each set included 150 samples from the 2009 and 2010 growing season. For each sample (each canopy image, pixels were segmented into fruit, foliage, and background using image segmentation. The four features extracted from the data set for the canopy were: total cross-sectional area of fruits, fruit number, total cross-section area of small fruits, and cross-sectional area of foliage, and were used as inputs. With the actual weighted yield per tree as a target, BPNN was employed to learn their mutual relationship as a prerequisite to develop the prediction; (3 Results: For the developed BPNN model of the early period after June drop, correlation coefficients (R2 between the estimated and the actual weighted yield, mean forecast error (MFE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and root mean square error (RMSE were 0.81, −0.05, 10.7%, 2.34 kg/tree, respectively. For the model of the ripening period, these measures were 0.83, −0.03, 8.9%, 2.3 kg/tree, respectively. In 2011, the two previously developed models were used to predict apple yield. The RMSE and R2 values between the estimated and harvested apple yield were 2.6 kg/tree and 0.62 for the early period (small, green fruit and improved near harvest (red, large fruit to 2.5 kg/tree and 0.75 for a tree with ca. 18 kg yield per tree. For further method verification, the cv.

  14. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja eSimon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  15. Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M

    2016-04-01

    Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology.

  16. Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology. PMID:27070316

  17. FuncTree: Functional Analysis and Visualization for Large-Scale Omics Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeru Uchiyama

    Full Text Available Exponential growth of high-throughput data and the increasing complexity of omics information have been making processing and interpreting biological data an extremely difficult and daunting task. Here we developed FuncTree (http://bioviz.tokyo/functree, a web-based application for analyzing and visualizing large-scale omics data, including but not limited to genomic, metagenomic, and transcriptomic data. FuncTree allows user to map their omics data onto the "Functional Tree map", a predefined circular dendrogram, which represents the hierarchical relationship of all known biological functions defined in the KEGG database. This novel visualization method allows user to overview the broad functionality of their data, thus allowing a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the omics information. FuncTree provides extensive customization and calculation methods to not only allow user to directly map their omics data to identify the functionality of their data, but also to compute statistically enriched functions by comparing it to other predefined omics data. We have validated FuncTree's analysis and visualization capability by mapping pan-genomic data of three different types of bacterial genera, metagenomic data of the human gut, and transcriptomic data of two different types of human cell expression. All three mapping strongly confirms FuncTree's capability to analyze and visually represent key functional feature of the omics data. We believe that FuncTree's capability to conduct various functional calculations and visualizing the result into a holistic overview of biological function, would make it an integral analysis/visualization tool for extensive omics base research.

  18. Fault Tree Analysis for an Inspection Robot in a Nuclear Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Thomas A.; Lu, Lixuan

    2017-09-01

    The life extension of current nuclear reactors has led to an increasing demand on inspection and maintenance of critical reactor components that are too expensive to replace. To reduce the exposure dosage to workers, robotics have become an attractive alternative as a preventative safety tool in nuclear power plants. It is crucial to understand the reliability of these robots in order to increase the veracity and confidence of their results. This study presents the Fault Tree (FT) analysis to a coolant outlet piper snake-arm inspection robot in a nuclear power plant. Fault trees were constructed for a qualitative analysis to determine the reliability of the robot. Insight on the applicability of fault tree methods for inspection robotics in the nuclear industry is gained through this investigation.

  19. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E; Price, Martin J

    2003-01-01

    In structuring decision models of medical interventions, it is commonly recommended that only 2 branches be used for each chance node to avoid logical inconsistencies that can arise during sensitivity analyses if the branching probabilities do not sum to 1. However, information may be naturally available in an unconditional form, and structuring a tree in conditional form may complicate rather than simplify the sensitivity analysis of the unconditional probabilities. Current guidance emphasizes using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and a method is required to provide probabilistic probabilities over multiple branches that appropriately represents uncertainty while satisfying the requirement that mutually exclusive event probabilities should sum to 1. The authors argue that the Dirichlet distribution, the multivariate equivalent of the beta distribution, is appropriate for this purpose and illustrate its use for generating a fully probabilistic transition matrix for a Markov model. Furthermore, they demonstrate that by adopting a Bayesian approach, the problem of observing zero counts for transitions of interest can be overcome.

  20. Empirical Green's function analysis of recent moderate events in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, S.E.

    2001-01-01

    I use seismic data from portable digital stations and the broadband Terrascope network in southern California to investigate radiated earthquake source spectra and discuss the results in light of previous studies on both static stress drop and apparent stress. Applying the empirical Green's function (EGF) method to two sets of M 4-6.1 events, I obtain deconvolved source-spectra estimates and corner frequencies. The results are consistent with an ??2 source model and constant Brune stress drop. However, consideration of the raw spectral shapes of the largest events provides evidence for a high-frequency decay more shallow than ??2. The intermediate (???f-1) slope cannot be explained plausibly with attenuation or site effects and is qualitatively consistent with a model incorporating directivity effects and a fractional stress-drop rupture process, as suggested by Haddon (1996). However, the results obtained in this study are not consistent with the model of Haddon (1996) in that the intermediate slope is not revealed with EGF analysis. This could reflect either bandwidth limitations inherent in EGF analysis or perhaps a rupture process that is not self-similar. I show that a model with an intermediate spectral decay can also reconcile the apparent discrepancy between the scaling of static stress drop and that of apparent stress drop for moderate-to-large events.

  1. EventView - The Design Behind an Analysis Framework

    CERN Document Server

    Cranmer, K; Shibata, A

    2007-01-01

    The development of software used to process petabytes of data per year is an elaborate project. The complexity of the detector means components of very diverse nature are required to process the data and one needs well defined frameworks that are both flexible and maintainable. Modern programming architecture based on object-oriented component design supports desirable features of such frameworks. The principle has been applied in almost all sub-systems of ATLAS software and its robustness has benefited the collaboration. An implementation of such framework for physics analysis, however, did not exist before the work presented in this paper. As it turns out the realisation of object-oriented analysis framework is closely related to the design of the event data object. In this paper, we well review the design behind the analysis framework developed around a data class called ``EventView''. It is a highly integrated part of the ATLAS software framework and is now becoming a standard platform for physics analysi...

  2. Analysis of manufacturing based on object oriented discrete event simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eirik Borgen

    1990-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes SIMMEK, a computer-based tool for performing analysis of manufacturing systems, developed at the Production Engineering Laboratory, NTH-SINTEF. Its main use will be in analysis of job shop type of manufacturing. But certain facilities make it suitable for FMS as well as a production line manufacturing. This type of simulation is very useful in analysis of any types of changes that occur in a manufacturing system. These changes may be investments in new machines or equipment, a change in layout, a change in product mix, use of late shifts, etc. The effects these changes have on for instance the throughput, the amount of VIP, the costs or the net profit, can be analysed. And this can be done before the changes are made, and without disturbing the real system. Simulation takes into consideration, unlike other tools for analysis of manufacturing systems, uncertainty in arrival rates, process and operation times, and machine availability. It also shows the interaction effects a job which is late in one machine, has on the remaining machines in its route through the layout. It is these effects that cause every production plan not to be fulfilled completely. SIMMEK is based on discrete event simulation, and the modeling environment is object oriented. The object oriented models are transformed by an object linker into data structures executable by the simulation kernel. The processes of the entity objects, i.e. the products, are broken down to events and put into an event list. The user friendly graphical modeling environment makes it possible for end users to build models in a quick and reliable way, using terms from manufacturing. Various tests and a check of model logic are helpful functions when testing validity of the models. Integration with software packages, with business graphics and statistical functions, is convenient in the result presentation phase.

  3. Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dralle, David N.; Karst, Nathaniel J.; Charalampous, Kyriakos; Veenstra, Andrew; Thompson, Sally E.

    2017-01-01

    The study of single streamflow recession events is receiving increasing attention following the presentation of novel theoretical explanations for the emergence of power law forms of the recession relationship, and drivers of its variability. Individually characterizing streamflow recessions often involves describing the similarities and differences between model parameters fitted to each recession time series. Significant methodological sensitivity has been identified in the fitting and parameterization of models that describe populations of many recessions, but the dependence of estimated model parameters on methodological choices has not been evaluated for event-by-event forms of analysis. Here, we use daily streamflow data from 16 catchments in northern California and southern Oregon to investigate how combinations of commonly used streamflow recession definitions and fitting techniques impact parameter estimates of a widely used power law recession model. Results are relevant to watersheds that are relatively steep, forested, and rain-dominated. The highly seasonal mediterranean climate of northern California and southern Oregon ensures study catchments explore a wide range of recession behaviors and wetness states, ideal for a sensitivity analysis. In such catchments, we show the following: (i) methodological decisions, including ones that have received little attention in the literature, can impact parameter value estimates and model goodness of fit; (ii) the central tendencies of event-scale recession parameter probability distributions are largely robust to methodological choices, in the sense that differing methods rank catchments similarly according to the medians of these distributions; (iii) recession parameter distributions are method-dependent, but roughly catchment-independent, such that changing the choices made about a particular method affects a given parameter in similar ways across most catchments; and (iv) the observed correlative relationship

  4. Performance Analysis of Cloud Computing Architectures Using Discrete Event Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, John C.; Golomb, Andrew M.

    2011-01-01

    Cloud computing offers the economic benefit of on-demand resource allocation to meet changing enterprise computing needs. However, the flexibility of cloud computing is disadvantaged when compared to traditional hosting in providing predictable application and service performance. Cloud computing relies on resource scheduling in a virtualized network-centric server environment, which makes static performance analysis infeasible. We developed a discrete event simulation model to evaluate the overall effectiveness of organizations in executing their workflow in traditional and cloud computing architectures. The two part model framework characterizes both the demand using a probability distribution for each type of service request as well as enterprise computing resource constraints. Our simulations provide quantitative analysis to design and provision computing architectures that maximize overall mission effectiveness. We share our analysis of key resource constraints in cloud computing architectures and findings on the appropriateness of cloud computing in various applications.

  5. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  6. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

  7. Stem analysis program (GOAP for evaluating of increment and growth data at individual tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gafura Aylak Özdemir

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Stem analysis is a method evaluating in a detailed way data of increment and growth of individual tree at the past periods and widely used in various forestry disciplines. Untreated data of stem analysis consist of annual ring count and measurement procedures performed on cross sections taken from individual tree by section method. The evaluation of obtained this untreated data takes quite some time. Thus, a computer software was developed in this study to quickly and efficiently perform stem analysis. This computer software developed to evaluate untreated data of stem analysis as numerical and graphical was programmed as macro by utilizing Visual Basic for Application feature of MS Excel 2013 program currently the most widely used. In developed this computer software, growth height model is formed from two different approaches, individual tree volume depending on section method, cross-sectional area, increments of diameter, height and volume, volume increment percent and stem form factor at breast height are calculated depending on desired period lengths. This calculated values are given as table. Development of diameter, height, volume, increments of these variables, volume increment percent and stem form factor at breast height according to periodic age are given as chart. Stem model showing development of diameter, height and shape of individual tree in the past periods also can be taken from computer software as chart.

  8. Statistical analysis on the factors affecting agricultural landowners’ willingness to enroll in a tree planting program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taeyoung Kim; Christian. Langpap

    2015-01-01

    This report provides a statistical analysis of the data collected from two survey regions of the United States, the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. The survey asked about individual agricultural landowners’ characteristics, characteristics of their land, and the landowners’ willingness to enroll in a tree planting program under incentive payments for carbon...

  9. Drug Adverse Event Detection in Health Plan Data Using the Gamma Poisson Shrinker and Comparison to the Tree-based Scan Statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Smith

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Drug adverse event (AE signal detection using the Gamma Poisson Shrinker (GPS is commonly applied in spontaneous reporting. AE signal detection using large observational health plan databases can expand medication safety surveillance. Methods: Using data from nine health plans, we conducted a pilot study to evaluate the implementation and findings of the GPS approach for two antifungal drugs, terbinafine and itraconazole, and two diabetes drugs, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone. We evaluated 1676 diagnosis codes grouped into 183 different clinical concepts and four levels of granularity. Several signaling thresholds were assessed. GPS results were compared to findings from a companion study using the identical analytic dataset but an alternative statistical method—the tree-based scan statistic (TreeScan. Results: We identified 71 statistical signals across two signaling thresholds and two methods, including closely-related signals of overlapping diagnosis definitions. Initial review found that most signals represented known adverse drug reactions or confounding. About 31% of signals met the highest signaling threshold. Conclusions: The GPS method was successfully applied to observational health plan data in a distributed data environment as a drug safety data mining method. There was substantial concordance between the GPS and TreeScan approaches. Key method implementation decisions relate to defining exposures and outcomes and informed choice of signaling thresholds.

  10. Quad-Tree Visual-Calculus Analysis of Satellite Coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Martin W.; Hockney, George; Kwan, Bruce

    2003-01-01

    An improved method of analysis of coverage of areas of the Earth by a constellation of radio-communication or scientific-observation satellites has been developed. This method is intended to supplant an older method in which the global-coverage-analysis problem is solved from a ground-to-satellite perspective. The present method provides for rapid and efficient analysis. This method is derived from a satellite-to-ground perspective and involves a unique combination of two techniques for multiresolution representation of map features on the surface of a sphere.

  11. Automated estimation of individual conifer tree height and crown diameter via Two-dimensional spatial wavelet analysis of lidar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Falkowski; Alistair M.S. Smith; Andrew T. Hudak; Paul E. Gessler; Lee A. Vierling; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2006-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new analysis technique, spatial wavelet analysis (SWA), to automatically estimate the location, height, and crown diameter of individual trees within mixed conifer open canopy stands from light detection and ranging (lidar) data. Two-dimensional Mexican hat wavelets, over a range of likely tree crown diameters, were convolved with lidar...

  12. Bisphosphonates and risk of cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae Hyun Kim

    Full Text Available Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI, stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass.A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed.Absolute risks over 25-36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84-1.14]; I2 = 0.0%, atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92-1.25]; I2 = 0.0%, MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69-1.34]; I2 = 0.0%, stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82-1.19]; I2 = 5.8%, and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72-1.07]; I2 = 0.0% with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96-1.61]; I2 = 0.0%, not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83-1.24]; I2 = 0.0%. The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality.Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large reduction in fractures with bisphosphonates, changes in

  13. Proteomic analysis of skin defensive factors of tree frog Hyla simplex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Liu, Han; Yang, Hailong; Yu, Haining; You, Dewen; Ma, Yufang; Ye, Huahu; Lai, Ren

    2011-09-02

    Tree frogs produce a variety of skin defensive chemicals against many biotic and abiotic risk factors for their everyday survival. By proteomics or peptidomics and coupling transcriptome analysis with pharmacological testings, 27 peptides or proteins belonging to 9 families, which act mainly as defensive functions, were identified and characterized from skin secretions of the tree frog, Hyla simplex. They are: (1) a novel family of peptides with EGF- and VEGF-releasing activities; (2) a novel family of analgesic peptides; (3) a family of neurotoxins acting on sodium channel; (4) a snake venom-like presynaptically active neurotoxin; (5) a snake venom-like neurotoxin targeting cyclic nucleotide-gated ion channels; (6) a tachykinin-like peptide, which is the first report from tree frogs; (7) two antimicrobial peptides; (8) a alpha-1-antitrypsin-like serpin; and (9) a wasp venom-like toxin with serine protease inhibitors activity. Families of 1, 2, 4, 5, and 8 proteins or peptides are first reported in amphibians. The chemical array in the tree frog skin shares some similarities with snake venoms. Most of these components in this tree frog help defend against predators, heal wounds, or attenuate suffering.

  14. Analysis of tree bark samples for air pollution biomonitoring of an urban area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, Ana Paula G.; Negri, Elnara M.; Saldiva, Paulo H.N., E-mail: paulista@usp.b [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Medicina. Dept. de Patologia; Saiki, Mitiko; Scapin, Marcos A.; Ribeiro, Andreza P.; Salvador, Vera L., E-mail: mitiko@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Air pollution is receiving much attention as a public health problem around the world due to its adverse health effects from exposures by urban populations. Within this context, the use of vegetal biomonitoring to evaluate air quality has been investigated throughout the world. Air pollutant levels are high in the city of Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil and being the vehicle emissions its main source. The aim of this study was to evaluate concentrations of As, Ba, Br, Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, S, Sb and Zn in tree bark samples used as biomonitor of urban air pollution. Concentrations of these elements were determined in barks collected in trees of the Ibirapuera Park, one of the biggest and most visited parks of the city of Sao Paulo city. Samples of tree barks were also collected in a site outside the city of Sao Paulo, in a rural area of Embu-Guacu, considered as a control site. The element concentrations were determined by the methods of Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) and of Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometry (EDXRF). The findings of this study showed that tree bark samples may be used as biomonitors of urban air pollution in a micro scale, and both techniques, INAA and EDXRF, can be used to evaluate element concentrations in tree bark samples. (author)

  15. Drug target mining and analysis of the Chinese tree shrew for pharmacological testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhao

    Full Text Available The discovery of new drugs requires the development of improved animal models for drug testing. The Chinese tree shrew is considered to be a realistic candidate model. To assess the potential of the Chinese tree shrew for pharmacological testing, we performed drug target prediction and analysis on genomic and transcriptomic scales. Using our pipeline, 3,482 proteins were predicted to be drug targets. Of these predicted targets, 446 and 1,049 proteins with the highest rank and total scores, respectively, included homologs of targets for cancer chemotherapy, depression, age-related decline and cardiovascular disease. Based on comparative analyses, more than half of drug target proteins identified from the tree shrew genome were shown to be higher similarity to human targets than in the mouse. Target validation also demonstrated that the constitutive expression of the proteinase-activated receptors of tree shrew platelets is similar to that of human platelets but differs from that of mouse platelets. We developed an effective pipeline and search strategy for drug target prediction and the evaluation of model-based target identification for drug testing. This work provides useful information for future studies of the Chinese tree shrew as a source of novel targets for drug discovery research.

  16. OPTIMUM INSPECTION POLICY FOR LONG SPAN BRIDGE BASED ON FAULT TREE ANALYSIS WITH VISUAL INSPECTION DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Kanaji, Hidesada; Kobayashi, Hiroshi; Mashima, Nobuhiro; Ohishi, Hideo; Matsuoka, Kodai

    This paper proposes a decision making methodology on an optimal inspection method/cycle for long span bridges, based on the two evaluation items: lifecycle cost and risk probability. Firstly, the authors formulate the aggregative Markov deterioration hazard model using visual inspection data, and propose a model for minimizing lifecycle cost. In addition, the authors express the risk of the management limit in the visual inspection of a long bridge with a fault tree, and calculate the probabilities of events constituting the fault tree with the Markov transition probability. Then, it becomes possible to grasp the variation in risk probability due to the difference in inspection and repair policies. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the actual case of determining an optimal inspection policy, to discuss its effectiveness empirically.

  17. CoVennTree: A new method for the comparative analysis of large datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen C. Lott

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The visualization of massive datasets, such as those resulting from comparative metatranscriptome analyses or the analysis of microbial population structures using ribosomal RNA sequences, is a challenging task. We developed a new method called CoVennTree (Comparative weighted Venn Tree that simultaneously compares up to three multifarious datasets by aggregating and propagating information from the bottom to the top level and produces a graphical output in Cytoscape. With the introduction of weighted Venn structures, the contents and relationships of various datasets can be correlated and simultaneously aggregated without losing information. We demonstrate the suitability of this approach using a dataset of 16S rDNA sequences obtained from microbial populations at three different depths of the Gulf of Aqaba in the Red Sea. CoVennTree has been integrated into the Galaxy ToolShed and can be directly downloaded and integrated into the user instance.

  18. Are trees long-lived?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith

    2009-01-01

    Trees and tree care can capture the best of people's motivations and intentions. Trees are living memorials that help communities heal at sites of national tragedy, such as Oklahoma City and the World Trade Center. We mark the places of important historical events by the trees that grew nearby even if the original tree, such as the Charter Oak in Connecticut or...

  19. Generic physical protection logic trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulus, W.K.

    1981-10-01

    Generic physical protection logic trees, designed for application to nuclear facilities and materials, are presented together with a method of qualitative evaluation of the trees for design and analysis of physical protection systems. One or more defense zones are defined where adversaries interact with the physical protection system. Logic trees that are needed to describe the possible scenarios within a defense zone are selected. Elements of a postulated or existing physical protection system are tagged to the primary events of the logic tree. The likelihood of adversary success in overcoming these elements is evaluated on a binary, yes/no basis. The effect of these evaluations is propagated through the logic of each tree to determine whether the adversary is likely to accomplish the end event of the tree. The physical protection system must be highly likely to overcome the adversary before he accomplishes his objective. The evaluation must be conducted for all significant states of the site. Deficiencies uncovered become inputs to redesign and further analysis, closing the loop on the design/analysis cycle.

  20. Event by Event Analysis of High Multiplicity Events Produced in 158 A GeV/c 208 Pb- 208 Pb Collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahmad, Shakeel; Kumar, Ashwini; Chaturvedi, O S K; Ahmad, A; Zafar, M; Irfan, M; Singh, B K

    2015-01-01

    An extensive analysis of individual high multiplicity events produced in 158 A GeV /c 208Pb- 208Pb collisions is carried by adopting different methods to examine the anomalous behavior of these rare events. A method of selecting the events with densely populated narrow regions or spikes out of a given sample of collision events is discussed.Employing this approach two events with large spikes in their eta- and phi- distributions are selected for further analysis. For the sake of comparison, another two events which do not exhibit such spikes are simultaneously analyzed. The findings suggest that the systematic studies of particle density fluctuations in one- and two-dimensional phase-spaces and comparison with those obtained from the studies of correlation free Monte Carlo events, would be useful for identifying the events with large dynamical fluctuations. Formation of clusters or jet like phenomena in multihadronic final states in individual events is also discussed and the experimental findings are compare...

  1. A Lidar Point Cloud Based Procedure for Vertical Canopy Structure Analysis And 3D Single Tree Modelling in Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yunsheng; Weinacker, Holger; Koch, Barbara

    2008-06-12

    A procedure for both vertical canopy structure analysis and 3D single tree modelling based on Lidar point cloud is presented in this paper. The whole area of research is segmented into small study cells by a raster net. For each cell, a normalized point cloud whose point heights represent the absolute heights of the ground objects is generated from the original Lidar raw point cloud. The main tree canopy layers and the height ranges of the layers are detected according to a statistical analysis of the height distribution probability of the normalized raw points. For the 3D modelling of individual trees, individual trees are detected and delineated not only from the top canopy layer but also from the sub canopy layer. The normalized points are resampled into a local voxel space. A series of horizontal 2D projection images at the different height levels are then generated respect to the voxel space. Tree crown regions are detected from the projection images. Individual trees are then extracted by means of a pre-order forest traversal process through all the tree crown regions at the different height levels. Finally, 3D tree crown models of the extracted individual trees are reconstructed. With further analyses on the 3D models of individual tree crowns, important parameters such as crown height range, crown volume and crown contours at the different height levels can be derived.

  2. Internal event analysis of Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. System Analysis; Analisis de Eventos Internos para la Unidad 1 de la Central Nucleoelectrica de Laguna Verde. Analisis de sistemas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huerta B, A.; Aguilar T, O.; Nunez C, A.; Lopez M, R. [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, 03000 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    1993-07-01

    The Level 1 results of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant PRA are presented in the {sup I}nternal Event Analysis of Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant{sup ,} CNSNS-TR-004, in five volumes. The reports are organized as follows: CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 1: Introduction and Methodology. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 2: Initiating Event and Accident Sequences. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 3: System Analysis. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 4: Accident Sequence Quantification and Results. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 5: Appendices A, B and C. This volume presents the results of the system analysis for the Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. The system analysis involved the development of logical models for all the systems included in the accident sequence event tree headings, and for all the support systems required to operate the front line systems. For the Internal Event analysis for Laguna Verde, 16 front line systems and 5 support systems were included. Detailed fault trees were developed for most of the important systems. Simplified fault trees focusing on major faults were constructed for those systems that can be adequately represent,ed using this kind of modeling. For those systems where fault tree models were not constructed, actual data were used to represent the dominant failures of the systems. The main failures included in the fault trees are hardware failures, test and maintenance unavailabilities, common cause failures, and human errors. The SETS and TEMAC codes were used to perform the qualitative and quantitative fault tree analyses. (Author)

  3. Principal component analysis and the locus of the Fréchet mean in the space of phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nye, Tom M W; Tang, Xiaoxian; Weyenberg, Grady; Yoshida, Ruriko

    2017-12-01

    Evolutionary relationships are represented by phylogenetic trees, and a phylogenetic analysis of gene sequences typically produces a collection of these trees, one for each gene in the analysis. Analysis of samples of trees is difficult due to the multi-dimensionality of the space of possible trees. In Euclidean spaces, principal component analysis is a popular method of reducing high-dimensional data to a low-dimensional representation that preserves much of the sample's structure. However, the space of all phylogenetic trees on a fixed set of species does not form a Euclidean vector space, and methods adapted to tree space are needed. Previous work introduced the notion of a principal geodesic in this space, analogous to the first principal component. Here we propose a geometric object for tree space similar to the [Formula: see text]th principal component in Euclidean space: the locus of the weighted Fréchet mean of [Formula: see text] vertex trees when the weights vary over the [Formula: see text]-simplex. We establish some basic properties of these objects, in particular showing that they have dimension [Formula: see text], and propose algorithms for projection onto these surfaces and for finding the principal locus associated with a sample of trees. Simulation studies demonstrate that these algorithms perform well, and analyses of two datasets, containing Apicomplexa and African coelacanth genomes respectively, reveal important structure from the second principal components.

  4. Multivariate cluster analysis of forest fire events in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Marj; Pereira, Mario; Vega Orozco, Carmen; Parente, Joana

    2015-04-01

    Portugal is one of the major fire-prone European countries, mainly due to its favourable climatic, topographic and vegetation conditions. Compared to the other Mediterranean countries, the number of events registered here from 1980 up to nowadays is the highest one; likewise, with respect to the burnt area, Portugal is the third most affected country. Portuguese mapped burnt areas are available from the website of the Institute for the Conservation of Nature and Forests (ICNF). This official geodatabase is the result of satellite measurements starting from the year 1990. The spatial information, delivered in shapefile format, provides a detailed description of the shape and the size of area burnt by each fire, while the date/time information relate to the ignition fire is restricted to the year of occurrence. In terms of a statistical formalism wildfires can be associated to a stochastic point process, where events are analysed as a set of geographical coordinates corresponding, for example, to the centroid of each burnt area. The spatio/temporal pattern of stochastic point processes, including the cluster analysis, is a basic procedure to discover predisposing factorsas well as for prevention and forecasting purposes. These kinds of studies are primarily focused on investigating the spatial cluster behaviour of environmental data sequences and/or mapping their distribution at different times. To include both the two dimensions (space and time) a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis is needful. In the present study authors attempt to verify if, in the case of wildfires in Portugal, space and time act independently or if, conversely, neighbouring events are also closer in time. We present an application of the spatio-temporal K-function to a long dataset (1990-2012) of mapped burnt areas. Moreover, the multivariate K-function allowed checking for an eventual different distribution between small and large fires. The final objective is to elaborate a 3D

  5. Nonstochastic Analysis of Manufacturing Systems Using Timed-Event Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulgaard, Henrik; Amon, Tod

    1996-01-01

    Using automated methods to analyze the temporal behavior ofmanufacturing systems has proven to be essential and quite beneficial.Popular methodologies include Queueing networks, Markov chains,simulation techniques, and discrete event systems (such as Petrinets). These methodologies are primarily......, which we argue can be useful for verifying{\\em correct} operation. We model manufacturing systems using timedevent graphs which are similar to decision free Petri nets augmentedwith timing information, and present an example that demonstratesthe efficacy of non-stochastic analysis....... stochastic. Performanceevaluation mandates results which are probabilistic in nature (such asthe average rate of part deliveries) and relies on probabilisticinputs (such as the probability of breakdown, or the distributionsassociated with a manufacturing process). This paper examinesnon-stochastic analysis...

  6. Riparian tree cover enhances the resistance and stability of woodland bird communities during an extreme climatic event

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nimmo, Dale G; Haslem, Angie; Radford, James Q; Hall, Mark; Bennett, Andrew F; James, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    .... Biodiversity in anthropogenic landscapes can be enhanced by manipulating landscape patterns, but could such landscape management also assist biota to cope with the effects of extreme climatic events, such as drought...

  7. Integrated Automatic Workflow for Phylogenetic Tree Analysis Using Public Access and Local Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damkliang, Kasikrit; Tandayya, Pichaya; Sangket, Unitsa; Pasomsub, Ekawat

    2016-11-28

    At the present, coding sequence (CDS) has been discovered and larger CDS is being revealed frequently. Approaches and related tools have also been developed and upgraded concurrently, especially for phylogenetic tree analysis. This paper proposes an integrated automatic Taverna workflow for the phylogenetic tree inferring analysis using public access web services at European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI) and Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB), and our own deployed local web services. The workflow input is a set of CDS in the Fasta format. The workflow supports 1,000 to 20,000 numbers in bootstrapping replication. The workflow performs the tree inferring such as Parsimony (PARS), Distance Matrix - Neighbor Joining (DIST-NJ), and Maximum Likelihood (ML) algorithms of EMBOSS PHYLIPNEW package based on our proposed Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) similarity score. The local web services are implemented and deployed into two types using the Soaplab2 and Apache Axis2 deployment. There are SOAP and Java Web Service (JWS) providing WSDL endpoints to Taverna Workbench, a workflow manager. The workflow has been validated, the performance has been measured, and its results have been verified. Our workflow's execution time is less than ten minutes for inferring a tree with 10,000 replicates of the bootstrapping numbers. This paper proposes a new integrated automatic workflow which will be beneficial to the bioinformaticians with an intermediate level of knowledge and experiences. All local services have been deployed at our portal http://bioservices.sci.psu.ac.th.

  8. Quantifying the Severity of Phytophthora Root Rot Disease in Avocado Trees Using Image Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arachchige Surantha Ashan Salgadoe

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Phytophthora root rot (PRR infects the roots of avocado trees, resulting in reduced uptake of water and nutrients, canopy decline, defoliation, and, eventually, tree mortality. Typically, the severity of PRR disease (proportion of canopy decline is assessed by visually comparing the canopy health of infected trees to a standardised set of photographs and a corresponding disease rating. Although this visual method provides some indication of the spatial variability of PRR disease across orchards, the accuracy and repeatability of the ranking is influenced by the experience of the assessor, the visibility of tree canopies, and the timing of the assessment. This study evaluates two image analysis methods that may serve as surrogates to the visual assessment of canopy decline in large avocado orchards. A smartphone camera was used to collect red, green, and blue (RGB colour images of individual trees with varying degrees of canopy decline, with the digital photographs then analysed to derive a canopy porosity percentage using a combination of ‘Canny edge detection’ and ‘Otsu’s’ methods. Coinciding with the on-ground measure of canopy porosity, the canopy reflectance characteristics of the sampled trees measured by high resolution Worldview-3 (WV-3 satellite imagery was also correlated against the observed disease severity rankings. Canopy porosity values (ranging from 20–70% derived from RGB images were found to be significantly different for most disease rankings (p < 0.05 and correlated well (R2 = 0.89 with the differentiation of three disease severity levels identified to be optimal. From the WV-3 imagery, a multivariate stepwise regression of 18 structural and pigment-based vegetation indices found the simplified ratio vegetation index (SRVI to be strongly correlated (R2 = 0.96 with the disease rankings of PRR disease severity, with the differentiation of four levels of severity found to be optimal.

  9. Classification tree analysis of race-specific subgroups at risk for a central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studnicki, James; Ekezue, Bola F; Tsulukidze, Maka; Honoré, Peggy; Moonesinghe, Ramal; Fisher, John

    2014-03-01

    Studies of racial disparities in patient safety events often do not use race-specific risk adjustment and do not account for reciprocal covariate interactions. These limitations were addressed by using classification tree analysis separately for black patients and white patients to identify characteristics that segment patients who have increased risks for a venous catheter-related bloodstream infection. A retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of 5,236,045 discharges from 103 Florida acute hospitals in 2005-2009 was conducted. Hospitals were rank ordered on the basis of the black/white Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) 7 rate ratio as follows: Group 1 (white rate higher), Group 2, (equivalent rates), Group 3, (black rate higher), and Group 4, (black rate highest). Predictor variables included 26 comorbidities (Elixhauser Comorbidity Index) and demographic characteristics. Four separate classification tree analyses were completed for each race/hospital group. Individual characteristics and groups of characteristics associated with increased PSI 7 risk differed for black and white patients. The average age for both races was different across the hospital groups (p < .01). Weight loss was the strongest single delineator and common to both races. The black subgroups with the highest PSI 7 risk were Medicare beneficiaries who were either < or = 25.5 years without hypertension or < or = 39.5 years without hypertension but with an emergency or trauma admission. The white subgroup with the highest PSI 7 risk consisted of patients < or = 45.5 years who had congestive heart failure but did not have either hypertension or weight loss. Identifying subgroups of patients at risk for a rare safety event such as PSI 7 should aid effective clinical decisions and efficient use of resources and help to guide patient safety interventions.

  10. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON INCENTIVES FOR INVESTMENTS IN PLUM TREES PLANTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijan Karić

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider the application of Cost/Benefit Analysis procedure in the decision process on socialeconomic profitability of subsidy implementation for investments in agricultural production, based on newly planted plum trees. Cost/Benefit Analysis has many advantages over the other common methods. It proved to be especially useful in the agricultural production, because it is possible to estimate the profitability of investments in the special conditions of agricultural production, taking into account many factors of its economic efficiency, as well as main effects that individual producers and the whole social community can expect. The application of Cost/Benefit Analysis, based on the data gathered for Bosnia and Herzegovina, enabled insight into the profitability of the existing subsidy programs for investments in plum trees planting, that take place in the conditon of the whole economy transition and high degree of rural population unemployment.

  11. ADA perceived disability claims: a decision-tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, William R; Hawley, Carolyn E; McMahon, Brian T; Reid, Christine A; Barbir, Lara A

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the possible interactions of predictor variables pertaining to perceived disability claims contained in a large governmental database. Specifically, it is a retrospective analysis of US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) data for the entire population of workplace discrimination claims based on the "regarded as disabled" prong of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) definition of disability. The study utilized records extracted from a "master database" of over two million charges of workplace discrimination in the Integrated Mission System of the EEOC. This database includes all ADA-related discrimination allegations filed from July 26, 1992 through December 31, 2008. Chi squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) was employed to analyze interaction effects of relevant variables, such as issue (grievance) and industry type. The research question addressed by CHAID is: What combination of factors are associated with merit outcomes for people making ADA EEOC allegations who are "regarded as" having disabilities? The CHAID analysis shows how merit outcome is predicted by the interaction of relevant variables. Issue was found to be the most prominent variable in determining merit outcome, followed by industry type, but the picture is made more complex by qualifications regarding age and race data. Although discharge was the most frequent grievance among charging parties in the perceived disability group, its merit outcome was significantly less than that for the leading factor of hiring.

  12. Reliability Modelling of Automated Guided Vehicles by the Use of Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis, and Fault Tree Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Rundong; Sarah J. Dunnett; Lisa M. Jackson

    2016-01-01

    Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) are being increasingly used for intelligent transportation and distribution of materials in warehouses and auto-production lines. In this paper, a preliminary hazard analysis of an AGV's critical components is conducted by the approach of Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). To implement this research, a particular AGV transport system is modelled as a phased mission. Then, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is adopted to model the causes of phase fa...

  13. Civil protection and Damaging Hydrogeological Events: comparative analysis of the 2000 and 2015 events in Calabria (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, Olga; Caloiero, Tommaso; Aurora Pasqua, Angela; Perrotta, Piero; Russo, Luigi; Tansi, Carlo

    2017-11-01

    Calabria (southern Italy) is a flood prone region, due to both its rough orography and fast hydrologic response of most watersheds. During the rainy season, intense rain affects the region, triggering floods and mass movements that cause economic damage and fatalities. This work presents a methodological approach to perform the comparative analysis of two events affecting the same area at a distance of 15 years, by collecting all the qualitative and quantitative features useful to describe both rain and damage. The aim is to understand if similar meteorological events affecting the same area can have different outcomes in terms of damage. The first event occurred between 8 and 10 September 2000, damaged 109 out of 409 municipalities of the region and killed 13 people in a campsite due to a flood. The second event, which occurred between 30 October and 1 November 2015, damaged 79 municipalities, and killed a man due to a flood. The comparative analysis highlights that, despite the exceptionality of triggering daily rain was higher in the 2015 event, the damage caused by the 2000 event to both infrastructures and belongings was higher, and it was strongly increased due to the 13 flood victims. We concluded that, in the 2015 event, the management of pre-event phases, with the issuing of meteorological alert, and the emergency management, with the preventive evacuation of people in hazardous situations due to landslides or floods, contributed to reduce the number of victims.

  14. The Expression Analysis of Genes in Fatty Acid Biosynthesis Pathway during the Seed Development of Tung Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixiong Jiang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Tung tree (Vernicia fordii is one of the important oil plants in China. The current researches on tung tree are mainly focused on the cultivation and breeding while the molecular mechanisms hidden in the back of tung tree's phenotypes are still uncovered. This research compared the transcriptome of three different stages during tung tree's seed development using RNA-Seq and obtained a lot of differentially expressed Unigenes. Through GO classification and pathway enrichment analysis, all of these differentially expressed Unigenes were classified into 128 signaling pathways including fatty acid biosynthesis. Fourteen homologous proteins were obtained when the sequences of 54 Unigenes within fatty acid biosynthesis pathway were aligned against KEGG database and the expression profiles of the genes encoding these proteins during seed development were analyzed. This research provides necessary data platform to elucidate the molecular mechanism underlies fatty acid biosynthesis of tung tree's seeds and theoretical guidance of tung tree varieties' improvement to increase output of tung oil.

  15. Systematic Analysis of Adverse Event Reports for Sex Differences in Adverse Drug Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yue; Chen, Jun; Li, Dingcheng; Wang, Liwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Hongfang

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence has shown that sex differences exist in Adverse Drug Events (ADEs). Identifying those sex differences in ADEs could reduce the experience of ADEs for patients and could be conducive to the development of personalized medicine. In this study, we analyzed a normalized US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS). Chi-squared test was conducted to discover which treatment regimens or drugs had sex differences in adverse events. Moreover, reporting odds ratio (ROR) and P value were calculated to quantify the signals of sex differences for specific drug-event combinations. Logistic regression was applied to remove the confounding effect from the baseline sex difference of the events. We detected among 668 drugs of the most frequent 20 treatment regimens in the United States, 307 drugs have sex differences in ADEs. In addition, we identified 736 unique drug-event combinations with significant sex differences. After removing the confounding effect from the baseline sex difference of the events, there are 266 combinations remained. Drug labels or previous studies verified some of them while others warrant further investigation. PMID:27102014

  16. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  17. Analysis of SUSY Heavy Higgs events at CLIC

    CERN Document Server

    Quevillon, J

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a study of the supersymmetric neutral heavy Higgs boson production channel e+e− → H◦A◦ → bb ̄bb ̄ at √s = 3 TeV. Reconstruction of data simulated at generator level shows a significant degradation of SUSY Heavy Higgs signal caused by γγ to hadrons background at s = 3 TeV. The importance of analysis procedures such as event cuts and transversal momentum cuts during jet-clustering to reduce the impact of the hadron background is underlined. Reconstruction at both the generator level and at the level of a full detector simulation forces us to introduce cuts to improve the quality of the results. This note describes a preliminary study of SUSY Heavy Higgs at CLIC - a more detailed paper on an extended study is in preparation.

  18. Formal Analysis of BPMN Models Using Event-B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryans, Jeremy W.; Wei, Wei

    The use of business process models has gone far beyond documentation purposes. In the development of business applications, they can play the role of an artifact on which high level properties can be verified and design errors can be revealed in an effort to reduce overhead at later software development and diagnosis stages. This paper demonstrates how formal verification may add value to the specification, design and development of business process models in an industrial setting. The analysis of these models is achieved via an algorithmic translation from the de-facto standard business process modeling language BPMN to Event-B, a widely used formal language supported by the Rodin platform which offers a range of simulation and verification technologies.

  19. Abstract interpretation over non-deterministic finite tree automate for set-based analysis of logic programs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallagher, John Patrick; Puebla, G.

    2002-01-01

    constraint analysis of a particular program $P$ could be understood as an abstract interpretation over a finite domain of regular tree grammars, constructed from $P$. In this paper we define such an abstract interpretation for logic programs, formulated over a domain of non-deterministic finite tree automata...

  20. Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objective: To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. Methods: The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to con...

  1. Descriptive statistics of tree crown condition in the Southern United States and impacts on data analysis and interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    KaDonna C. Randolph

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) utilizes visual assessments of tree crown condition to monitor changes and trends in forest health. This report describes and discusses distributions of three FIA crown condition indicators (crown density, crown dieback, and foliage transparency) for trees in the Southern...

  2. Feasibility of high-density climate reconstruction based on Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) collected tree-ring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Justin DeRose; Shih-Yu Wang; John D. Shaw

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces a novel tree-ring dataset, with unparalleled spatial density, for use as a climate proxy. Ancillary Douglas fir and pinyon pine tree-ring data collected by the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA data) were subjected to a series of tests to determine their feasibility as climate proxies. First, temporal coherence between...

  3. Meteorological Drivers of Extremes in Daily Stem Radius Variations of Beech, Oak and Pine in Northeastern Germany: An Event Coincidence Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonatan Frederik Siegmund

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem diameter or radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV of three domestic tree species (beech, oak and pine from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions.

  4. The Run 2 ATLAS Analysis Event Data Model

    CERN Document Server

    SNYDER, S; The ATLAS collaboration; NOWAK, M; EIFERT, T; BUCKLEY, A; ELSING, M; GILLBERG, D; MOYSE, E; KOENEKE, K; KRASZNAHORKAY, A

    2014-01-01

    During the LHC's first Long Shutdown (LS1) ATLAS set out to establish a new analysis model, based on the experience gained during Run 1. A key component of this is a new Event Data Model (EDM), called the xAOD. This format, which is now in production, provides the following features: A separation of the EDM into interface classes that the user code directly interacts with, and data storage classes that hold the payload data. The user sees an Array of Structs (AoS) interface, while the data is stored in a Struct of Arrays (SoA) format in memory, thus making it possible to efficiently auto-vectorise reconstruction code. A simple way of augmenting and reducing the information saved for different data objects. This makes it possible to easily decorate objects with new properties during data analysis, and to remove properties that the analysis does not need. A persistent file format that can be explored directly with ROOT, either with or without loading any additional libraries. This allows fast interactive naviga...

  5. Meaningful-Experience Creation and Event Management A Post-Event Analysis of Copenhagen Carnival 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Holst Kjær

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A carnival is a cultural event within the experience economy, and can be considered an activity of added value to a city when creating place-awareness for tourists and residents. ‘Culture’ is used as a way to regenerate post-industrial and run down places, when studying EU – as well as Nordic – cultural policy reports. This might be too much to expect from the cultural sector though. Amongst other external factors, cultural policy ideals co-create and affect the experiential content of an event in various ways. Thus studying a carnival one has to include external and internal factors in order to evaluate their meaningfulness in the total experience of the event. One way to investigate what a meaningful experience is can be to apply a cultural consumer perspective. How different consumer segments directly and indirectly inform the event organisation and how the consumer’s cultural preconceptions judge the event is vital when an event organisation designs and improves its experience concepts and experience setting. Thus, the way the carnival’s venue and activities are culturally received is closely linked to the management of the organisation’s external and internal resources. The goal of an event organisation is to produce meaningful and appealing experience concepts and perform them in real time. But how is this organised in practice? This article evaluates the production of the Copenhagen Carnival 2009 and is based on ethnographic material. Through a model of Value Framework for Experience Production by the Dutch experience economists Albert Boswijk, Thomas Thijssen & Ed Peelen (2007 I analyse how the practical organisation, technical solutions and cultural assumptions of a carnival are part of an event organisation’s work-process when creating a spectacle. Furthermore, the organisation of voluntary professional culture workers and the navigation in a metropolitan, political and institutional context is examined through the

  6. Integrating Insults: Using Fault Tree Analysis to Guide Schizophrenia Research across Levels of Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald III, Angus W.; Zick, Jennifer L.; Chafee, Matthew V.; Netoff, Theoden I.

    2016-01-01

    The grand challenges of schizophrenia research are linking the causes of the disorder to its symptoms and finding ways to overcome those symptoms. We argue that the field will be unable to address these challenges within psychiatry’s standard neo-Kraepelinian (DSM) perspective. At the same time the current corrective, based in molecular genetics and cognitive neuroscience, is also likely to flounder due to its neglect for psychiatry’s syndromal structure. We suggest adopting a new approach long used in reliability engineering, which also serves as a synthesis of these approaches. This approach, known as fault tree analysis, can be combined with extant neuroscientific data collection and computational modeling efforts to uncover the causal structures underlying the cognitive and affective failures in people with schizophrenia as well as other complex psychiatric phenomena. By making explicit how causes combine from basic faults to downstream failures, this approach makes affordances for: (1) causes that are neither necessary nor sufficient in and of themselves; (2) within-diagnosis heterogeneity; and (3) between diagnosis co-morbidity. PMID:26779007

  7. Analysis of a Model for the Morphological Structure of Renal Arterial Tree: Fractal Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurora Espinoza-Valdez

    2013-01-01

    experimental data measurements of the rat kidneys. The fractal dimension depends on the probability of sprouting angiogenesis in the development of the arterial vascular tree of the kidney, that is, of the distribution of blood vessels in the morphology generated by the analytical model. The fractal dimension might determine whether a suitable renal vascular structure is capable of performing physiological functions under appropriate conditions. The analysis can describe the complex structures of the development vasculature in kidney.

  8. Whole-Genome Analysis of Gene Conversion Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chih-Hao; Zhang, Yu; Hardison, Ross; Miller, Webb

    Gene conversion events are often overlooked in analyses of genome evolution. In a conversion event, an interval of DNA sequence (not necessarily containing a gene) overwrites a highly similar sequence. The event creates relationships among genomic intervals that can confound attempts to identify orthologs and to transfer functional annotation between genomes. Here we examine 1,112,202 paralogous pairs of human genomic intervals, and detect conversion events in about 13.5% of them. Properties of the putative gene conversions are analyzed, such as the lengths of the paralogous pairs and the spacing between their sources and targets. Our approach is illustrated using conversion events in the beta-globin gene cluster.

  9. Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Reconstruction for Utah Using Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Barandiaran

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Snowpack observations in the Intermountain West are sparse and short, making them difficult for use in depicting past variability and extremes. This study presents a reconstruction of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE for the period of 1850–1989 using increment cores collected by the U.S. Forest Service, Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA. In the state of Utah, SWE was reconstructed for 38 snow course locations using a combination of standardized tree-ring indices derived from both FIA increment cores and publicly available tree-ring chronologies. These individual reconstructions were then interpolated to a 4-km grid using an objective analysis with elevation correction to create an SWE product. The results showed a significant correlation with observed SWE as well as good correspondence to regional tree-ring-based drought reconstructions. Diagnostic analysis showed statewide coherent climate variability on inter-annual and inter-decadal time-scales, with added geographical details that would not be possible using courser pre-instrumental proxy datasets. This SWE reconstruction provides water resource managers and forecasters with better spatial resolution to examine past variability in snowpack, which will be important as future hydroclimatic variability is amplified by climate change.

  10. Application of regression analysis and classification trees in calculating additional population risk of ischemic heart disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Maksimov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Our research goal was to perform a comparative analysis of regression analysis application and tree classification appli-cation in calculating additional population risk on the example of ischemic heart diseases (IHD. Our research object was a random population sample comprising both male and female population aged 25-64 in Kemerovo region (1,628 people within ESSE-RF multi-centered epidemiologic research. We considered the following IHD risk factors: lipid metabolism parameters, arterial hypertension, lifestyle factors, psychoemotional peculiarities, and social parameters. IHD occurrence was assessed as per sum of 3 epidemiologic criteria: on the basis of ECG changes coding as per Minnesota code, Rose questionnaire, and car-diac infarction in case history. We calculated additional population IHD risk determined by risk factors as per unified original algorithms, but with various statistic analysis techniques: logistic regression analysis and classification trees. We built up mathematic models for IHD probability as per risk factors, with predictive significance equal to 83.8% for logistic regression analysis and to 71.9% for classification trees. The applied statistical analysis techniques show different contributions made by risk factors into IHD prevalence which results from absence of correlation between them. IBD risk additional to population one and determined by risk factors as per both statistical analysis techniques in sex-age groups changed from negative values in age groups younger than 45 to positive values in older people. Increase in addi-tional IHD risk in aged groups as per both techniques was practically linear with slight deviations. Difference in additional population risk calculated as per two statistical analysis techniques was insignificant and as a rule it didn't exceed 1.5%. Consequently, both techniques give similar results and can be equally used in calculating IHD population risk.

  11. Cluster analysis of indermediate deep events in the southeastern Aegean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscic, Marija; Becker, Dirk; Brüstle, Andrea; Meier, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The Hellenic subduction zone (HSZ) is the seismically most active region in Europe where the oceanic African litosphere is subducting beneath the continental Aegean plate. Although there are numerous studies of seismicity in the HSZ, very few focus on the eastern HSZ and the Wadati-Benioff-Zone of the subducting slab in that part of the HSZ. In order to gain a better understanding of the geodynamic processes in the region a dense local seismic network is required. From September 2005 to March 2007, the temporary seismic network EGELADOS has been deployed covering the entire HSZ. It consisted of 56 onshore and 23 offshore broadband stations with addition of 19 stations from GEOFON, NOA and MedNet to complete the network. Here, we focus on a cluster of intermediate deep seismicity recorded by the EGELADOS network within the subducting African slab in the region of the Nysiros volcano. The cluster consists of 159 events at 80 to 190 km depth with magnitudes between 0.2 and 4.1 that were located using nonlinear location tool NonLinLoc. A double-difference earthquake relocation using the HypoDD software is performed with both manual readings of onset times and differential traveltimes obtained by separate cross correlation of P- and S-waveforms. Single event locations are compared to relative relocations. The event hypocenters fall into a thin zone close to the top of the slab defining its geometry with an accuracy of a few kilometers. At intermediate depth the slab is dipping towards the NW at an angle of about 30°. That means it is dipping steeper than in the western part of the HSZ. The edge of the slab is clearly defined by an abrupt disappearance of intermediate depths seismicity towards the NE. It is found approximately beneath the Turkish coastline. Furthermore, results of a cluster analysis based on the cross correlation of three-component waveforms are shown as a function of frequency and the spatio-temporal migration of the seismic activity is analysed.

  12. Chain of events analysis for a scuba diving fatality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippmann, John; Stevenson, Christopher; McD Taylor, David; Williams, Jo; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza

    2017-09-01

    A scuba diving fatality usually involves a series of related events culminating in death. Several studies have utilised a chain of events-type analysis (CEA) to isolate and better understand the accident sequence in order to facilitate the creation of relevant countermeasures. The aim of this research was to further develop and better define a process for performing a CEA to reduce potential subjectivity and increase consistency between analysts. To develop more comprehensive and better-defined criteria, existing criteria were modified and a template was created and tested using a CEA. Modifications comprised addition of a category for pre-disposing factors, expansion of criteria for the triggers and disabling agents present during the incident, and more specific inclusion criteria to better encompass a dataset of 56 fatalities. Four investigators (raters) used both the previous criteria and this template, in randomly assigned order, to examine a sample of 13 scuba diver deaths. Individual results were scored against the group consensus for the CEA. Raters' agreement consistency was compared using the Index of Concordance and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). The template is presented. The index of concordance between the raters increased from 62% (194⁄312) using the previous criteria to 82% (257⁄312) with use of this template indicating a substantially higher inter-rater agreement when allocating criteria. The agreement in scoring with and without template use was also quantified by ICC which were generally graded as low, illustrating a substantial change in consistency of scoring before and after template use. The template for a CEA for a scuba diving fatality improves consistency of interpretation between users and may improve comparability of diving fatality reports.

  13. The use of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in event-by-event analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasik, Boris [Univerzita Mateja Bela, Tajovskeho 40, 97401 Banska Bystrica (Slovakia); Czech Technical University in Prague, FNSPE, Brehova 11, 11519 Prague (Czech Republic); Melo, Ivan [Zilinska Univerzita, Univerzitna 1, 01026 Zilina (Slovakia); Torrieri, Giorgio [FIAS, Goethe-Universitaet, Ruth-Moufang-Str. 1, 60438 Frankfurt (Germany); Vogel, Sascha; Bleicher, Marcus [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Goethe-Universitaet, Max-von-Laue-Str. 1, 60438 Frankfurt (Germany)

    2009-11-01

    We propose to use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to uncover non-statistical differences between events created in heavy ion collisions within the same centrality class. The advantage of the method over other approaches which are currently in use, is that it is sensitive to any difference between the events and is not restricted to simple moments of the distribution of hadrons. The particular application examined here is the identification of the fireball decay due to spinodal fragmentation and/or sudden rise of the bulk viscosity.

  14. Species richness and resource availability: A phylogenetic analysis of insects associated with trees

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, C. K.; Southwood, T. R. E.

    1999-01-01

    The data on the number of species of insects associated with various trees in Britain have been reanalyzed to factor out possible bias from phylogenetic effects. It was found that tree availability (range and abundance) continues to provide a good predictor (r = 0.852) of insect-species richness, slightly better than straightforward cross-species analyses. Of the two components of tree availability, tree abundance gives a much better prediction than tree range. The species richness on trees o...

  15. Nurses' critical event risk assessments: a judgement analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Carl; Bucknall, Tracey; Estabrookes, Carole A; Hutchinson, Alison; Fraser, Kim; de Vos, Rien; Binnecade, Jan; Barrat, Gez; Saunders, Jane

    2009-02-01

    To explore and explain nurses' use of readily available clinical information when deciding whether a patient is at risk of a critical event. Half of inpatients who suffer a cardiac arrest have documented but unacted upon clinical signs of deterioration in the 24 hours prior to the event. Nurses appear to be both misinterpreting and mismanaging the nursing-knowledge 'basics' such as heart rate, respiratory rate and oxygenation. Whilst many medical interventions originate from nurses, up to 26% of nurses' responses to abnormal signs result in delays of between one and three hours. A double system judgement analysis using Brunswik's lens model of cognition was undertaken with 245 Dutch, UK, Canadian and Australian acute care nurses. Nurses were asked to judge the likelihood of a critical event, 'at-risk' status, and whether they would intervene in response to 50 computer-presented clinical scenarios in which data on heart rate, systolic blood pressure, urine output, oxygen saturation, conscious level and oxygenation support were varied. Nurses were also presented with a protocol recommendation and also placed under time pressure for some of the scenarios. The ecological criterion was the predicted level of risk from the Modified Early Warning Score assessments of 232 UK acute care inpatients. Despite receiving identical information, nurses varied considerably in their risk assessments. The differences can be partly explained by variability in weightings given to information. Time and protocol recommendations were given more weighting than clinical information for key dichotomous choices such as classifying a patient as 'at risk' and deciding to intervene. Nurses' weighting of cues did not mirror the same information's contribution to risk in real patients. Nurses synthesized information in non-linear ways that contributed little to decisional accuracy. The low-moderate achievement (R(a)) statistics suggests that nurses' assessments of risk were largely inaccurate

  16. A quantitative analysis of secondary RNA structure using domination based parameters on trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Yue

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has become increasingly apparent that a comprehensive database of RNA motifs is essential in order to achieve new goals in genomic and proteomic research. Secondary RNA structures have frequently been represented by various modeling methods as graph-theoretic trees. Using graph theory as a modeling tool allows the vast resources of graphical invariants to be utilized to numerically identify secondary RNA motifs. The domination number of a graph is a graphical invariant that is sensitive to even a slight change in the structure of a tree. The invariants selected in this study are variations of the domination number of a graph. These graphical invariants are partitioned into two classes, and we define two parameters based on each of these classes. These parameters are calculated for all small order trees and a statistical analysis of the resulting data is conducted to determine if the values of these parameters can be utilized to identify which trees of orders seven and eight are RNA-like in structure. Results The statistical analysis shows that the domination based parameters correctly distinguish between the trees that represent native structures and those that are not likely candidates to represent RNA. Some of the trees previously identified as candidate structures are found to be "very" RNA like, while others are not, thereby refining the space of structures likely to be found as representing secondary RNA structure. Conclusion Search algorithms are available that mine nucleotide sequence databases. However, the number of motifs identified can be quite large, making a further search for similar motif computationally difficult. Much of the work in the bioinformatics arena is toward the development of better algorithms to address the computational problem. This work, on the other hand, uses mathematical descriptors to more clearly characterize the RNA motifs and thereby reduce the corresponding search space. These

  17. Design and Analysis of Self-Healing Tree-Based Hybrid Spectral Amplitude Coding OCDMA System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waqas A. Imtiaz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an efficient tree-based hybrid spectral amplitude coding optical code division multiple access (SAC-OCDMA system that is able to provide high capacity transmission along with fault detection and restoration throughout the passive optical network (PON. Enhanced multidiagonal (EMD code is adapted to elevate system’s performance, which negates multiple access interference and associated phase induced intensity noise through efficient two-matrix structure. Moreover, system connection availability is enhanced through an efficient protection architecture with tree and star-ring topology at the feeder and distribution level, respectively. The proposed hybrid architecture aims to provide seamless transmission of information at minimum cost. Mathematical model based on Gaussian approximation is developed to analyze performance of the proposed setup, followed by simulation analysis for validation. It is observed that the proposed system supports 64 subscribers, operating at the data rates of 2.5 Gbps and above. Moreover, survivability and cost analysis in comparison with existing schemes show that the proposed tree-based hybrid SAC-OCDMA system provides the required redundancy at minimum cost of infrastructure and operation.

  18. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montani, S. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: stefania@mfn.unipmn.it; Portinale, L. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: portinal@mfn.unipmn.it; Bobbio, A. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: bobbio@mfn.unipmn.it; Codetta-Raiteri, D. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: raiteri@mfn.unipmn.it

    2008-07-15

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained.

  19. ANALYSIS OF A MEDIA EVENT. CASE STUDY: EUROVISION 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta CIACU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to identify the characteristics of a media event and to analyze the specific features of a major event in Europe, the Eurovision Song Contest. The research design was based on the theoretical presentation of the media event concept related to the interpretation of the specific features of this year’s edition. This case study starts from framing the event into the restorative event category because the event itself is the result of an over-exposure, both pre and post event and especially during it. Another aspect that gives Eurovision the label of a“media event” comes from its interrupting nature. That is given by the mobilization of the public who abandoned their daily activities and participated at the event on the ground, in Baku, or in front of the TV. The anticipated nature of the event is reflected in the frequency with which it took place from 1956 to present and in its over-exposure as well, being the longest running program in the television history, with the largest international audience of the unsporting broadcasts.

  20. Analysis of the impact of recreational trail usage for prioritising management decisions: a regression tree approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek

    2016-04-01

    The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of

  1. Integrating natural language processing expertise with patient safety event review committees to improve the analysis of medication events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Allan; Harriott, Nicole; Walters, Donna M; Foley, Hanan; Morrissey, Richard; Ratwani, Raj R

    2017-08-01

    Many healthcare providers have implemented patient safety event reporting systems to better understand and improve patient safety. Reviewing and analyzing these reports is often time consuming and resource intensive because of both the quantity of reports and length of free-text descriptions in the reports. Natural language processing (NLP) experts collaborated with clinical experts on a patient safety committee to assist in the identification and analysis of medication related patient safety events. Different NLP algorithmic approaches were developed to identify four types of medication related patient safety events and the models were compared. Well performing NLP models were generated to categorize medication related events into pharmacy delivery delays, dispensing errors, Pyxis discrepancies, and prescriber errors with receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve of 0.96, 0.87, 0.96, and 0.81 respectively. We also found that modeling the brief without the resolution text generally improved model performance. These models were integrated into a dashboard visualization to support the patient safety committee review process. We demonstrate the capabilities of various NLP models and the use of two text inclusion strategies at categorizing medication related patient safety events. The NLP models and visualization could be used to improve the efficiency of patient safety event data review and analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of Multi Muon Events in the L3 Detector

    CERN Document Server

    Schmitt, Volker

    2000-01-01

    The muon density distribution in air showers initiated by osmi parti les is sensitive to the hemi al omposition of osmi rays. The density an be measured via the multipli ity distribution in a nite size dete tor, as it is L3. With a shallow depth of 30 meters under ground, the dete tor provides an ex ellent fa ility to measure a high muon rate, but being shielded from the hadroni and ele troni shower omponent. Subje t of this thesis is the des ription of the L3 Cosmi s experiment (L3+C), whi h is taking data sin e May 1999 and the analysis of muon bundles in the large magneti spe trometer of L3. The new osmi trigger and readout system is brie y des ribed. The in uen e of dierent primaries on the multipli ity distribution has been investigated using Monte Carlo event samples, generated with the CORSIKA program. The simulation results showed that L3+C measures in the region of the \\knee" of the primary spe trum of osmi rays. A new pattern re ognition has been developed and added to the re onstru tion ode, whi h ...

  3. Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF per year in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages.

  4. Ontology-Based Vaccine Adverse Event Representation and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiangan; He, Yongqun

    2017-01-01

    Vaccine is the one of the greatest inventions of modern medicine that has contributed most to the relief of human misery and the exciting increase in life expectancy. In 1796, an English country physician, Edward Jenner, discovered that inoculating mankind with cowpox can protect them from smallpox (Riedel S, Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination. Proceedings (Baylor University. Medical Center) 18(1):21, 2005). Based on the vaccination worldwide, we finally succeeded in the eradication of smallpox in 1977 (Henderson, Vaccine 29:D7-D9, 2011). Other disabling and lethal diseases, like poliomyelitis and measles, are targeted for eradication (Bonanni, Vaccine 17:S120-S125, 1999).Although vaccine development and administration are tremendously successful and cost-effective practices to human health, no vaccine is 100% safe for everyone because each person reacts to vaccinations differently given different genetic background and health conditions. Although all licensed vaccines are generally safe for the majority of people, vaccinees may still suffer adverse events (AEs) in reaction to various vaccines, some of which can be serious or even fatal (Haber et al., Drug Saf 32(4):309-323, 2009). Hence, the double-edged sword of vaccination remains a concern.To support integrative AE data collection and analysis, it is critical to adopt an AE normalization strategy. In the past decades, different controlled terminologies, including the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) (Brown EG, Wood L, Wood S, et al., Drug Saf 20(2):109-117, 1999), the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) (NCI, The Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE). Available from: http://evs.nci.nih.gov/ftp1/CTCAE/About.html . Access on 7 Oct 2015), and the World Health Organization (WHO) Adverse Reactions Terminology (WHO-ART) (WHO, The WHO Adverse Reaction Terminology - WHO-ART. Available from: https://www.umc-products.com/graphics/28010.pdf

  5. Civil protection and Damaging Hydrogeological Events: comparative analysis of the 2000 and 2015 events in Calabria (southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Petrucci

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Calabria (southern Italy is a flood prone region, due to both its rough orography and fast hydrologic response of most watersheds. During the rainy season, intense rain affects the region, triggering floods and mass movements that cause economic damage and fatalities. This work presents a methodological approach to perform the comparative analysis of two events affecting the same area at a distance of 15 years, by collecting all the qualitative and quantitative features useful to describe both rain and damage. The aim is to understand if similar meteorological events affecting the same area can have different outcomes in terms of damage. The first event occurred between 8 and 10 September 2000, damaged 109 out of 409 municipalities of the region and killed 13 people in a campsite due to a flood. The second event, which occurred between 30 October and 1 November 2015, damaged 79 municipalities, and killed a man due to a flood. The comparative analysis highlights that, despite the exceptionality of triggering daily rain was higher in the 2015 event, the damage caused by the 2000 event to both infrastructures and belongings was higher, and it was strongly increased due to the 13 flood victims. We concluded that, in the 2015 event, the management of pre-event phases, with the issuing of meteorological alert, and the emergency management, with the preventive evacuation of people in hazardous situations due to landslides or floods, contributed to reduce the number of victims.

  6. Estimation of Trees Outside Forests using IRS High Resolution data by Object Based Image Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujar, G. S.; Reddy, P. M.; Reddy, C. S.; Jha, C. S.; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2014-11-01

    Assessment of Trees outside forests (TOF) is widely being recognized as a pivotal theme, in sustainable natural resource management, due to their role in offering variety of goods, such as timber, fruits and fodder as well as services like water, carbon, biodiversity. Forest Conservation efforts involving reduction of deforestation and degradation may have to increasingly rely on alternatives provided by TOF in catering to economic demands in forest edges. Spatial information systems involving imaging, analysis and monitoring to achieve objectives under protocols like REDD+, require incorporation of information content from areas under forest as well as trees outside forests, to aid holistic decisions. In this perspective, automation in retrieving information on area under trees, growing outside forests, using high resolution imaging is essential so that measuring and verification of extant carbon pools, are strengthened. Retrieval of this tree cover is demonstrated herewith, using object based image analysis in a forest edge of dry deciduous forests of Eastern Ghats, in Khammam district of Telangana state of India. IRS high resolution panchromatic 2.5 m data (Cartosat-1 Orthorectified) used in tandem with 5.8 m multispectral LISS IV data, discerns tree crowns and clusters at a detailed scale and hence semi-automated approach is attempted to classify TOF from a pair of image from relatively crop and cloud free season. Object based image analysis(OBIA) approach as implemented in commercial suite of e-Cognition (Ver 8.9) consists of segmentation at user defined scale followed by application of wide range of spectral, textural and object geometry based parameters for classification. Software offers innovative blend of raster and vector features that can be juxtaposed flexibly, across scales horizontally or vertically. Segmentation was carried out at multiple scales to discern first the major land covers, such as forest, water, agriculture followed by that at a finer

  7. Nurses' critical event risk assessments: a judgement analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, Carl; Bucknall, Tracey; Estabrookes, Carole A.; Hutchinson, Alison; Fraser, Kim; de Vos, Rien; Binnecade, Jan; Barrat, Gez; Saunders, Jane

    2009-01-01

    To explore and explain nurses' use of readily available clinical information when deciding whether a patient is at risk of a critical event. Half of inpatients who suffer a cardiac arrest have documented but unacted upon clinical signs of deterioration in the 24 hours prior to the event. Nurses

  8. Novel adverse events of vortioxetine: A disproportionality analysis in USFDA adverse event reporting system database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subeesh, Viswam; Singh, Hemendra; Maheswari, Eswaran; Beulah, Elsa

    2017-12-01

    Signal detection is one of the most advanced and emerging field in pharmacovigilance. It is a modern method of detecting new reaction (which can be desired or undesired) of a drug. It facilitates early adverse drug reaction detection which enables health professionals to identify adverse events that may not have been identified in pre-marketing clinical trials. Vortioxetine, the first mixed serotonergic antidepressant was initially approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) on September 30, 2013 for the treatment of adults with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). This study was to identify the signal strength for vortioxetine associated ADRs using data mining technique in USFDA Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) database. Most commonly used three data mining algorithms, Reporting Odds Ratio (ROR), Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) and Information Component (IC) were selected for the study and they were applied retrospectively in USFDA AERS database from 2015Q1 to 2016Q3. A value of ROR-1.96SE >1, PRR≥2, IC- 2SD>0 were considered as the positive signal. A study population of 61,22,000 were reported all over the world. Among which 3481 reactions were associated with vortioxetine which comprised of 632 unique events encompassed with 27 clinically relevant reactions. ROR, PRR and IC showed positive signal for weight loss, agitation, anger, ketoacidosis, insomnia and abnormal dreams. The present study suggests that vortioxetine may result in these adverse events. Further pharmacoepidemiologic studies are necessary to confirm this conclusion and to improve the precision of the prevalence and/or the risk factors of this ADRs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  10. Combination of various data analysis techniques for efficient track reconstruction in very high multiplicity events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siklér, Ferenc

    2017-08-01

    A novel combination of established data analysis techniques for reconstructing charged-particles in high energy collisions is proposed. It uses all information available in a collision event while keeping competing choices open as long as possible. Suitable track candidates are selected by transforming measured hits to a binned, three- or four-dimensional, track parameter space. It is accomplished by the use of templates taking advantage of the translational and rotational symmetries of the detectors. Track candidates and their corresponding hits, the nodes, form a usually highly connected network, a bipartite graph, where we allow for multiple hit to track assignments, edges. In order to get a manageable problem, the graph is cut into very many minigraphs by removing a few of its vulnerable components, edges and nodes. Finally the hits are distributed among the track candidates by exploring a deterministic decision tree. A depth-limited search is performed maximizing the number of hits on tracks, and minimizing the sum of track-fit χ2. Simplified but realistic models of LHC silicon trackers including the relevant physics processes are used to test and study the performance (efficiency, purity, timing) of the proposed method in the case of single or many simultaneous proton-proton collisions (high pileup), and for single heavy-ion collisions at the highest available energies.

  11. Classification and regression trees

    CERN Document Server

    Breiman, Leo; Olshen, Richard A; Stone, Charles J

    1984-01-01

    The methodology used to construct tree structured rules is the focus of this monograph. Unlike many other statistical procedures, which moved from pencil and paper to calculators, this text's use of trees was unthinkable before computers. Both the practical and theoretical sides have been developed in the authors' study of tree methods. Classification and Regression Trees reflects these two sides, covering the use of trees as a data analysis method, and in a more mathematical framework, proving some of their fundamental properties.

  12. Technical Note: An improved guideline for rapid and precise sample preparation of tree-ring stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schollaen, K.; Baschek, H.; Heinrich, I.; Helle, G.

    2015-07-01

    The procedure of wood sample preparation, including tree-ring dissection, cellulose extraction, homogenization and finally weighing and packing for stable isotope analysis is labour intensive and time consuming. We present an elaborated methodical guideline from pre-analyses considerations, wood sample preparation through semi-automated chemical extraction of cellulose directly from tree-ring cross-sections to tree-ring dissection for high-precision isotope ratio mass spectrometry. This guideline reduces time and maximizes the tree-ring stable isotope data throughput significantly. The method was applied to ten different tree species (coniferous and angiosperm wood) with different wood growth rates and differently shaped tree-ring boundaries. The tree-ring structures of the cellulose cross-sections largely remained well identifiable. FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) spectrometry and the comparison of stable isotope values with classical method confirm chemical purity of the resultant cellulose. Sample homogenization is no longer necessary. Cellulose extraction is now faster, cheaper and more user friendly allowing (i) the simultaneous treatment of wood cross-sections of a total length of 180 cm (equivalent to 6 increment cores of 30 cm length) and thickness of 0.5 to 2 mm, and (ii) precise tree-ring separation at annual to high-resolution scale utilizing manual devices or UV-laser microdissection microscopes.

  13. QUALITY ANALYSIS OF SINGLE TREE OBJECT WITH OBIA AND VEGETATION INDEX FROM LAPAN SURVEILLANCE AIRCRAFT MULTISPECTRAL DATA IN URBAN AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurwita Mustika Sari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution remote sensing data as the acquisition result of LAPAN Surveillance Aircraft (LSA has the potential to analyze urban areas. The purpose of this study was to develop a method of LSA multispectral data utilization with an analysis of the single tree object in urban areas with OBIA and vegetation index. The method proposed in this study is a hierarchical classification to obtain the specific tree object that will be used further to analyze the quality of vegetation. In particular, analysis of the vegetation quality on the tree object was carried out by calculating the value of vegetation index NDVI. As a result, the overall accuracy of the hierarchical classification of objects in urban areas reached 88 %. In conclusion, the analysis of the quality of vegetation NDVI has been able to perceive the condition of trees in the urban area.

  14. Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliev Iliycho

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2 vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.

  15. Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliev, Iliycho; Gocheva-Ilieva, Snezhana; Kulin, Chavdar

    2018-01-01

    Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2) vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others) and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.

  16. Analysis of tree stand horizontal structure using random point field methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Sekretenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the model approach to analyze the horizontal structure of forest stands. The main types of models of random point fields and statistical procedures that can be used to analyze spatial patterns of trees of uneven and even-aged stands are described. We show how modern methods of spatial statistics can be used to address one of the objectives of forestry – to clarify the laws of natural thinning of forest stand and the corresponding changes in its spatial structure over time. Studying natural forest thinning, we describe the consecutive stages of modeling: selection of the appropriate parametric model, parameter estimation and generation of point patterns in accordance with the selected model, the selection of statistical functions to describe the horizontal structure of forest stands and testing of statistical hypotheses. We show the possibilities of a specialized software package, spatstat, which is designed to meet the challenges of spatial statistics and provides software support for modern methods of analysis of spatial data. We show that a model of stand thinning that does not consider inter-tree interaction can project the size distribution of the trees properly, but the spatial pattern of the modeled stand is not quite consistent with observed data. Using data of three even-aged pine forest stands of 25, 55, and 90-years old, we demonstrate that the spatial point process models are useful for combining measurements in the forest stands of different ages to study the forest stand natural thinning.

  17. A broad scale analysis of tree risk, mitigation and potential habitat for cavity-nesting birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Kane; Paige S. Warren; Susannah B. Lerman

    2015-01-01

    Trees in towns and cities provide habitat for wildlife. In particular, cavity-nesting birds nest in the deadand decayed stems and branches of these trees. The same dead and decayed stems and branches alsohave a greater likelihood of failure, which, in some circumstances, increases risk. We examined 1760trees in Baltimore, MD, USA and western MA, USA, assessing tree...

  18. Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Machining has considerably increased with evolving technology and increasing demand in natural stone production facilities. ... Department of Mining Engineering, Dokuz Eylul University, 35160 Buca-Izmir, Turkey; Department of Mining Engineering, Afyon Kocatepe University, 03200 Afyonkarahisar, Turkey; Department of ...

  19. Time to tenure in Spanish universities: an event history analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Menéndez, Luis; Cruz-Castro, Laura; Alva, Kenedy

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how institutional incentives and mechanisms for assigning recognition shape access to a permanent job is important. This study, based on data from questionnaire survey responses and publications of 1,257 university science, biomedical and engineering faculty in Spain, attempts to understand the timing of getting a permanent position and the relevant factors that account for this transition, in the context of dilemmas between mobility and permanence faced by organizations. Using event history analysis, the paper looks at the time to promotion and the effects of some relevant covariates associated to academic performance, social embeddedness and mobility. We find that research productivity contributes to career acceleration, but that other variables are also significantly associated to a faster transition. Factors associated to the social elements of academic life also play a role in reducing the time from PhD graduation to tenure. However, mobility significantly increases the duration of the non-tenure stage. In contrast with previous findings, the role of sex is minor. The variations in the length of time to promotion across different scientific domains is confirmed, with faster career advancement for those in the Engineering and Technological Sciences compared with academics in the Biological and Biomedical Sciences. Results show clear effects of seniority, and rewards to loyalty, in addition to some measurements of performance and quality of the university granting the PhD, as key elements speeding up career advancement. Findings suggest the existence of a system based on granting early permanent jobs to those that combine social embeddedness and team integration with some good credentials regarding past and potential future performance, rather than high levels of mobility.

  20. Time to tenure in Spanish universities: an event history analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Sanz-Menéndez

    Full Text Available Understanding how institutional incentives and mechanisms for assigning recognition shape access to a permanent job is important. This study, based on data from questionnaire survey responses and publications of 1,257 university science, biomedical and engineering faculty in Spain, attempts to understand the timing of getting a permanent position and the relevant factors that account for this transition, in the context of dilemmas between mobility and permanence faced by organizations. Using event history analysis, the paper looks at the time to promotion and the effects of some relevant covariates associated to academic performance, social embeddedness and mobility. We find that research productivity contributes to career acceleration, but that other variables are also significantly associated to a faster transition. Factors associated to the social elements of academic life also play a role in reducing the time from PhD graduation to tenure. However, mobility significantly increases the duration of the non-tenure stage. In contrast with previous findings, the role of sex is minor. The variations in the length of time to promotion across different scientific domains is confirmed, with faster career advancement for those in the Engineering and Technological Sciences compared with academics in the Biological and Biomedical Sciences. Results show clear effects of seniority, and rewards to loyalty, in addition to some measurements of performance and quality of the university granting the PhD, as key elements speeding up career advancement. Findings suggest the existence of a system based on granting early permanent jobs to those that combine social embeddedness and team integration with some good credentials regarding past and potential future performance, rather than high levels of mobility.

  1. Time to Tenure in Spanish Universities: An Event History Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Menéndez, Luis; Cruz-Castro, Laura; Alva, Kenedy

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how institutional incentives and mechanisms for assigning recognition shape access to a permanent job is important. This study, based on data from questionnaire survey responses and publications of 1,257 university science, biomedical and engineering faculty in Spain, attempts to understand the timing of getting a permanent position and the relevant factors that account for this transition, in the context of dilemmas between mobility and permanence faced by organizations. Using event history analysis, the paper looks at the time to promotion and the effects of some relevant covariates associated to academic performance, social embeddedness and mobility. We find that research productivity contributes to career acceleration, but that other variables are also significantly associated to a faster transition. Factors associated to the social elements of academic life also play a role in reducing the time from PhD graduation to tenure. However, mobility significantly increases the duration of the non-tenure stage. In contrast with previous findings, the role of sex is minor. The variations in the length of time to promotion across different scientific domains is confirmed, with faster career advancement for those in the Engineering and Technological Sciences compared with academics in the Biological and Biomedical Sciences. Results show clear effects of seniority, and rewards to loyalty, in addition to some measurements of performance and quality of the university granting the PhD, as key elements speeding up career advancement. Findings suggest the existence of a system based on granting early permanent jobs to those that combine social embeddedness and team integration with some good credentials regarding past and potential future performance, rather than high levels of mobility. PMID:24116199

  2. Adverse Drug Event Ontology: Gap Analysis for Clinical Surveillance Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Terrence J.; Wang, Jin

    2015-01-01

    Adverse drug event identification and management are an important patient safety problem given the potential for event prevention. Previous efforts to provide structured data methods for population level identification of adverse drug events have been established, but important gaps in coverage remain. ADE identification gaps contribute to suboptimal and inefficient event identification. To address the ADE identification problem, a gap assessment was completed with the creation of a proposed comprehensive ontology using a Minimal Clinical Data Set framework incorporating existing identification approaches, clinical literature and a large set of inpatient clinical data. The new ontology was developed and tested using the National Inpatient Sample database with the validation results demonstrating expanded ADE identification capacity. In addition, the newly proposed ontology elements are noted to have significant inpatient mortality, above median inpatient costs and a longer length of stay when compared to existing ADE ontology elements and patients without ADE exposure. PMID:26306223

  3. Meta-analysis framework for exact inferences with application to the analysis of rare events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Liu, Dungang; Wang, Junyuan; Xie, Min-Ge

    2016-12-01

    The usefulness of meta-analysis has been recognized in the evaluation of drug safety, as a single trial usually yields few adverse events and offers limited information. For rare events, conventional meta-analysis methods may yield an invalid inference, as they often rely on large sample theories and require empirical corrections for zero events. These problems motivate research in developing exact methods, including Tian et al.'s method of combining confidence intervals (2009, Biostatistics, 10, 275-281) and Liu et al.'s method of combining p-value functions (2014, JASA, 109, 1450-1465). This article shows that these two exact methods can be unified under the framework of combining confidence distributions (CDs). Furthermore, we show that the CD method generalizes Tian et al.'s method in several aspects. Given that the CD framework also subsumes the Mantel-Haenszel and Peto methods, we conclude that the CD method offers a general framework for meta-analysis of rare events. We illustrate the CD framework using two real data sets collected for the safety analysis of diabetes drugs. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Reverse transcriptase domain sequences from tree peony (Paeonia suffruticosa) long terminal repeat retrotransposons: sequence characterization and phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Da-Long; Hou, Xiao-Gai; Jia, Tian

    2014-05-04

    Tree peony is an important horticultural plant worldwide of great ornamental and medicinal value. Long terminal repeat retrotransposons (LTR-retrotransposons) are the major components of most plant genomes and can substantially impact the genome in many ways. It is therefore crucial to understand their sequence characteristics, genetic distribution and transcriptional activity; however, no information about them is available in tree peony. Ty1-copia-like reverse transcriptase sequences were amplified from tree peony genomic DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with degenerate oligonucleotide primers corresponding to highly conserved domains of the Ty1-copia-like retrotransposons in this study. PCR fragments of roughly 270 bp were isolated and cloned, and 33 sequences were obtained. According to alignment and phylogenetic analysis, all sequences were divided into six families. The observed difference in the degree of nucleotide sequence similarity is an indication for high level of sequence heterogeneity among these clones. Most of these sequences have a frame shift, a stop codon, or both. Dot-blot analysis revealed distribution of these sequences in all the studied tree peony species. However, different hybridization signals were detected among them, which is in agreement with previous systematics studies. Reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) indicated that Ty1-copia retrotransposons in tree peony were transcriptionally inactive. The results provide basic genetic and evolutionary information of tree peony genome, and will provide valuable information for the further utilization of retrotransposons in tree peony.

  5. Climate signal detected in sub-fossil and living oak trees data. An analysis of signal frequency components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantin, Nechita; Francisca, Chiriloaei; Maria, Radoane; Ionel, Popa; Nicoae, Radoane

    2016-04-01

    This study is focused on analysis the frequency components of the signal detected in living and sub-fossil tree ring series from different time periods. The investigation is oriented to analyze signal frequency components (low and high) of the two categories of trees. The interpretation technique of tree ring width is the instrument most often used to elaborate past climatic reconstructions. The annual resolution, but also, the high capacity of trees to accumulate climatic information are attributes which confer to palaeo-environmental reconstructions the biggest credibility. The main objective of the study refers to the evaluation of climatic signal characteristics, both present day climate and palaeo-climate (last 7000 years BP). Modern dendrochronological methods were applied on 350 samples of sub-fossil trees and 400 living trees. The subfossil trunks were sampled from different fluvial environments (Siret, Suceava, Moldova). Their age was determined using radiocarbon, varying from under 100 years to almost 7000 years BP. The subfossil tree species investigated were Quercus, Alnus, Ulmus. Considering living trees, these were identified on eastern part of Romania, in different actual physico-geographical conditions. The studied living tree species consisted in Quercus species (robur and petraea). Each site was investigated regarding stress factors of the sampled tree. The working methods were applied to the total wood series, both late and early, to detect intra-annual level climate information. Each series has been tested to separate individual trees with climatic signal of other trees with different signals (noises determined by competition between individuals or site stress, or anthropic impact). Comparing dendrochronological series (sub-fossil and living trees) we want to identify what significant causes determined the difference in the signal frequencies. Especially, the human interventions registered in the last 2 centuries will be evaluated by these

  6. Revealing critical mechanisms of BR-mediated apple nursery tree growth using iTRAQ-based proteomic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Liwei; Ma, Juanjuan; Zhang, Lizhi; Gao, Cai; Zhang, Dong; Zhao, Caiping; Han, Mingyu

    2017-12-19

    Brassinosteroid is identified as an important hormone. However, information about brassinosteroid has not been fully elucidated, and few studies concerned its role in apple. The aim of this work was to study the role of brassinosteroid for apple tree growth. In our study, the effect of brassinosteroid on apple nursery tree was analyzed. The biomass, cell size and xylem content of apple nursery tree were obviously evaluated by brassinosteroid treatment; mineral elements contents, photosynthesis indexes, carbohydrate level and hormone contents were significantly high in brassinosteroid treated trees. To explore the molecular mechanisms of these phenotypic differences, iTRAQ-based quantitative proteomics were used to identify the expression profiles of proteins in apple nursery tree shoot tips in response to brassinosteroid at a key period (14days after brassinosteroid treatment). A total of 175 differentially expressed proteins were identified. They were mainly involved in chlorophyII biosynthesis, photosynthesis, carbohydrate metabolism, glycolysis, citric acid cycle, respiratory action, hormone signal, cell growth and ligin metabolism. The findings in this study indicate that brassinosteroid mediating apple nursery tree growth may be mainly through energy metabolism. Important biological processes identified here can be useful theoretical basis and provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms of brassinosteroid. Brassinosteroid is very important for plant growth and development. However, the molecular mechanism of brassinosteroid mediating growth process is not perfectly clear in plant, especially in apple nursery tree. We used a combination of physiological and bioinformatics analysis to investigate the effects of brassinosteroid on apple nursery tree growth and development. The data reported here demonstrated that brassinosteroid regulates apple nursery tree growth mainly through energy metabolism. Therefore it can provide a theoretical basis from energy

  7. Integrating ecosystem services analysis into scenario planning practice: accounting for street tree benefits with i-Tree valuation in Central Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilde, Thomas; Paterson, Robert

    2014-12-15

    Scenario planning continues to gain momentum in the United States as an effective process for building consensus on long-range community plans and creating regional visions for the future. However, efforts to integrate more sophisticated information into the analytical framework to help identify important ecosystem services have lagged in practice. This is problematic because understanding the tradeoffs of land consumption patterns on ecological integrity is central to mitigating the environmental degradation caused by land use change and new development. In this paper we describe how an ecosystem services valuation model, i-Tree, was integrated into a mainstream scenario planning software tool, Envision Tomorrow, to assess the benefits of public street trees for alternative future development scenarios. The tool is then applied to development scenarios from the City of Hutto, TX, a Central Texas Sustainable Places Project demonstration community. The integrated tool represents a methodological improvement for scenario planning practice, offers a way to incorporate ecosystem services analysis into mainstream planning processes, and serves as an example of how open source software tools can expand the range of issues available for community and regional planning consideration, even in cases where community resources are limited. The tool also offers room for future improvements; feasible options include canopy analysis of various future land use typologies, as well as a generalized street tree model for broader U.S. application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparative in silico analysis of EST-SSRs in angiosperm and gymnosperm tree genera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranade, Sonali Sachin; Lin, Yao-Cheng; Zuccolo, Andrea; Van de Peer, Yves; García-Gil, María del Rosario

    2014-08-21

    Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs) derived from Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs) belong to the expressed fraction of the genome and are important for gene regulation, recombination, DNA replication, cell cycle and mismatch repair. Here, we present a comparative analysis of the SSR motif distribution in the 5'UTR, ORF and 3'UTR fractions of ESTs across selected genera of woody trees representing gymnosperms (17 species from seven genera) and angiosperms (40 species from eight genera). Our analysis supports a modest contribution of EST-SSR length to genome size in gymnosperms, while EST-SSR density was not associated with genome size in neither angiosperms nor gymnosperms. Multiple factors seem to have contributed to the lower abundance of EST-SSRs in gymnosperms that has resulted in a non-linear relationship with genome size diversity. The AG/CT motif was found to be the most abundant in SSRs of both angiosperms and gymnosperms, with a relative increase in AT/AT in the latter. Our data also reveals a higher abundance of hexamers across the gymnosperm genera. Our analysis provides the foundation for future comparative studies at the species level to unravel the evolutionary processes that control the SSR genesis and divergence between angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species.

  9. Statistical language analysis for automatic exfiltration event detection.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, David Gerald

    2010-04-01

    This paper discusses the recent development a statistical approach for the automatic identification of anomalous network activity that is characteristic of exfiltration events. This approach is based on the language processing method eferred to as latent dirichlet allocation (LDA). Cyber security experts currently depend heavily on a rule-based framework for initial detection of suspect network events. The application of the rule set typically results in an extensive list of uspect network events that are then further explored manually for suspicious activity. The ability to identify anomalous network events is heavily dependent on the experience of the security personnel wading through the network log. Limitations f this approach are clear: rule-based systems only apply to exfiltration behavior that has previously been observed, and experienced cyber security personnel are rare commodities. Since the new methodology is not a discrete rule-based pproach, it is more difficult for an insider to disguise the exfiltration events. A further benefit is that the methodology provides a risk-based approach that can be implemented in a continuous, dynamic or evolutionary fashion. This permits uspect network activity to be identified early with a quantifiable risk associated with decision making when responding to suspicious activity.

  10. Thermal analysis of wood of the main tree species of Central Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Loskutov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Thermal decomposition of wood from coniferous and deciduous species of Siberia has been studied using thermogravimetry (TG and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC. The tree species were larch Larix sibirica Ledeb., Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L., spruce Picea obovata Ledeb., fir Abies sibirica Ledeb., Siberian pine Pinus sibirica Du Tour., birch Betula pendula Roth., and aspen Populus tremula L. Thermal analysis of wood samples was carried out under oxidative (air and inert (argon atmospheres from 25 to 700 °С at heating rates 10, 20, 40 °С • min–1 (TG/DTG and from 25 to 590 °С at heating rates 10, 40 °С • min–1 (DSC. The stages of thermal decomposition, the temperature intervals, the mass loss, the mass loss rate, the temperature of DTG/DSC peaks, and heating effects were determined for each tree species. The kinetic thermal degradation parameters of wood were obtained by the Broido and Ozawa–Flynn–Wall models. The wood of coniferous and deciduous species of Siberia was characterized on the base of analysis of activation energy values at various stages of thermal decomposition and the relations of activation energy on conversion level of wood substance of different tree species, and also the comparison of mass loss at the same stages of thermal destruction, heating effects, residual mass and other parameters of TG/DTG, DSC. In our opinion, the results of this work present interest for researchers and specialists in the field of forest pyrology, wood science, dendrochemistry.

  11. Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall events over the Mumbai Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, G.; Lomazzi, M.; Entekhabi, D.; Pinto, J.; Rudari, R.

    2009-12-01

    Over the Indian Subcontinent, almost 75% of the annual precipitation is expected to fall during the South Asia Monsoon (SAM) season, conventionally defined between June 1 and September 30. While precipitation patterns show a very strong spatial heterogeneity, the maximum annual values, mainly associated with orographic forcing, occur in the Western Coast of the Indian Peninsula. This is a relatively narrow strip (width generally lower than 100 km) bounded to the West by the North Indian Ocean and to the East by the Western Ghats mountain range. The interaction between SAM rainfall events and relatively short and steep rivers makes this area particularly prone to flash floods. As a consequence, great damages are produced both in terms of life and economic losses. This work aims at identifying large-scale SAM meteorological patterns associated with the triggering of extreme rainfall events affecting the Mumbai region (approximately 18-20°N, 72.5-73.5°E), an area of great economic importance for India and a very highly populated one (around 20 million people). To this aim, seventy years of daily rainfall data are analyzed and compared to a database of damage-causing precipitations. Event days are selected with a twin-threshold function related to daily rainfall height and soil moisture content. To detect typical large-scale features, event days are compared to non-event days by analyzing MSLP, SST, and vertical wind profiles. Further, the storm-related processes are analyzed with moisture sources (via backtracing) and moisture flux convergence fields. First results on selected event days show that they are typically characterized by remote moisture sources (from S-W Arabian Sea) and increased lower level westerly winds which cause enhanced moisture flux convergence, leading to precipitable water’s enhancement.

  12. A Mid-Layer Model for Human Reliability Analysis: Understanding the Cognitive Causes of Human Failure Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; April M. Whaley; Ronald L. Boring; James Y. H. Chang; Song-Hua Shen; Ali Mosleh; Johanna H. Oxstrand; John A. Forester; Dana L. Kelly; Erasmia L. Lois

    2010-06-01

    The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method’s middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identified human failure events, analysts identify potential failure mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.

  13. Exploring Historical Coffee and Climate Relations in Southern Guatemala: An Integration of Tree Ring Analysis and Remote Sensing Data =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, Diego

    This dissertation makes use of a physical geography perspective to examine the relationship between agriculture and climate in Guatemala using dendrochronology. I examined the potential of high-resolution climate proxy data from dendrochronology to help fill in the gaps of past climate information to better understand the natural and anthropogenic variability of precipitation which, in turn, can inform Guatemala's agriculture sector. This research has demonstrated successful cross-dating and climate sensitivity of Abies guatemalensis in the Pacific slope of Guatemala. Based on this, I have produced a 124-year record of mean precipitation from June-July-August. The mean precipitation from June-July-August at this site seems to receive an important influence from the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean in the form of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the region 3.4. The analysis on the frequency of the precipitation records suggests that single year droughts dominate the record yet, periods of 9 years below-average rainfall can persist. Likewise, single year pluvial events also dominate the evaluated period. The long-term reconstruction of precipitation allowed to describe past relationships between coffee plantations and pests. For instance, the frequency analysis suggests that 4 or more consecutive periods of above-average precipitation are associated with several coffee pests and subsequently great economical losses due to crop failures, including the last coffee leaf rust crisis. This study also presents a streamflow reconstruction of the Upper Samala River watershed using a tree ring-width chronology derived from the Guatemalan fir (Abies guatemalensis) to reconstruct mean August-September-October streamflow volumes for the period 1889-2013. Our analysis shows that strong statistical correlations are present between tree-ring width measurements and monthly natural streamflow series. The mean August-September-October streamflow variability is

  14. Performance analysis of immigration operation by discrete event ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Discrete event modelling and simulation were used to analyse the performance of immigration operation in Botswana. The relationships between length of queues of immigrants, queuing time, service time and engagem-ent of duty officer were investigated. Data collected by direct observation and clock-timing of processing ...

  15. Event-time analysis of reproductive traits in dairy heifers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vargas, B.; Lende, van der T.; Baaijen, M.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.

    1998-01-01

    Data on the reproductive traits of dairy heifers were analyzed using event-time techniques. Traits analyzed were age at first calving (n = 4631), days to first breeding, and days open (n = 1992) during the first lactation. A proportional hazard model was used that included fixed effects of

  16. Analysis of catchments response to severe drought event for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nafiisah

    high deficit in rainfall. The dry spell started at the beginning of the November 1998 and ended in January 1999, provoking serious drought conditions in the country and affecting all ... detail by determining both duration and deficit volume of the event (Figure 1). Accordingly ... commercial and domestic purposes. Rainfall ...

  17. Component tree analysis of cystovirus φ6 nucleocapsid Cryo-EM single particle reconstructions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas M Oliveira

    Full Text Available The 3-dimensional structure of the nucleocapsid (NC of bacteriophage φ6 is described utilizing component tree analysis, a topological and geometric image descriptor. The component trees are derived from density maps of cryo-electron microscopy single particle reconstructions. Analysis determines position and occupancy of structure elements responsible for RNA packaging and transcription. Occupancy of the hexameric nucleotide triphosphorylase (P4 and RNA polymerase (P2 are found to be essentially complete in the NC. The P8 protein lattice likely fixes P4 and P2 in place during maturation. We propose that the viral procapsid (PC is a dynamic structural intermediate where the P4 and P2 can attach and detach until held in place in mature NCs. During packaging, the PC expands to accommodate the RNA, and P2 translates from its original site near the inner 3-fold axis (20 sites to the inner 5-fold axis (12 sites with excess P2 positioned inside the central region of the NC.

  18. Genome-wide analysis of microRNAs in rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis L.) using high-throughput sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lertpanyasampatha, Manassawe; Gao, Lei; Kongsawadworakul, Panida; Viboonjun, Unchera; Chrestin, Hervé; Liu, Renyi; Chen, Xuemei; Narangajavana, Jarunya

    2012-08-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short RNAs with essential roles in gene regulation in various organisms including higher plants. In contrast to the vast information on miRNAs from many economically important plants, almost nothing has been reported on the identification or analysis of miRNAs from rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis L.), the most important natural rubber-producing crop. To identify miRNAs and their target genes in rubber tree, high-throughput sequencing combined with a computational approach was performed. Four small RNA libraries were constructed for deep sequencing from mature and young leaves of two rubber tree clones, PB 260 and PB 217, which provide high and low latex yield, respectively. 115 miRNAs belonging to 56 known miRNA families were identified, and northern hybridization validated miRNA expression and revealed developmental stage-dependent and clone-specific expression for some miRNAs. We took advantage of the newly released rubber tree genome assembly and predicted 20 novel miRNAs. Further, computational analysis uncovered potential targets of the known and novel miRNAs. Predicted target genes included not only transcription factors but also genes involved in various biological processes including stress responses, primary and secondary metabolism, and signal transduction. In particular, genes with roles in rubber biosynthesis are predicted targets of miRNAs. This study provides a basic catalog of miRNAs and their targets in rubber tree to facilitate future improvement and exploitation of rubber tree.

  19. Descriptive Analysis of Air Force Non-Fatal Suicide Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-07-01

    otherwise in any manner construed, as licensing the holder or any other person or corporation; or as conveying any rights or permission to manufcture , use...collectior of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to the Department of Defense, Executive Services and Communications Directorate...the Air Force Suicide Prevention Program, the Suicide Event Surveillance System (SESS) was developed in response to a peak in 1994 in the number of

  20. Probability distribution analysis of observational extreme events and model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Q.; Lau, A. K. H.; Fung, J. C. H.; Tsang, K. T.

    2016-12-01

    Earth's surface temperatures were the warmest in 2015 since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to the latest study. In contrast, a cold weather occurred in many regions of China in January 2016, and brought the first snowfall to Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong province in 67 years. To understand the changes of extreme weather events as well as project its future scenarios, this study use statistical models to analyze on multiple climate data. We first use Granger-causality test to identify the attribution of global mean temperature rise and extreme temperature events with CO2 concentration. The four statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) of daily maximum temperature distribution is investigated on global climate observational, reanalysis (1961-2010) and model data (1961-2100). Furthermore, we introduce a new tail index based on the four moments, which is a more robust index to measure extreme temperatures. Our results show that the CO2 concentration can provide information to the time series of mean and extreme temperature, but not vice versa. Based on our new tail index, we find that other than mean and variance, skewness is an important indicator should be considered to estimate extreme temperature changes and model evaluation. Among the 12 climate model data we investigate, the fourth version of Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from National Center for Atmospheric Research performs well on the new index we introduce, which indicate the model have a substantial capability to project the future changes of extreme temperature in the 21st century. The method also shows its ability to measure extreme precipitation/ drought events. In the future we will introduce a new diagram to systematically evaluate the performance of the four statistical moments in climate model output, moreover, the human and economic impacts of extreme weather events will also be conducted.

  1. Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engelhardt, M.E.

    1994-09-01

    The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.

  2. Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

  3. Analysis of Chain of Events in Major Historic Power Outages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HUANG, T.

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary power systems are facing increasing intricate conditions that have never been considered when initially designing the infrastructure, such as malicious threats, accommodating smart grids, etc. As a consequence, blackouts albeit seldom but stubbornly keep appearing from time to time the world around, and demonstrate their devastating capability to create vast damage on both power systems and the society at large. Patterns of the blackout starting from the first triggering events to the system final status have emerged. A framework of a coding system was proposed in this paper in order to capture the common feature in the system evolution during the development of cascades. Cascades in a blackout can be tracked by a chain of events with the help of the codes. It is facile to adopt the framework to build up a knowledge base of blackouts. By applying the proposed framework to 31 selected historic blackouts, most frequent events, effects and origins are identified; the findings can provide useful information for grid designers and security experts for ranking the most imminent issues in their study.

  4. Analysis of strong wind events around Adelie Land, East Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Mastrantonio

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Strong wind events at Dumont d'Urville (DdU, an East Antarctic coastal station, and Dome C, an interior station, were studied to determine if the wind along the Adelie Land coast increases with the approach of the depression from the west of the site or after its passage to the east of it. The events for the year 1993 were studied using synoptic observations, mean sea level pressure charts and composite infrared satellite images. It was found that the winds are enhanced with the approach of a depression from the west towards the DdU coast. The wind increases in response to the decreasing pressure at the coastal site and increasing downslope pressure difference (dp. The wind starts decreasing once the system moves to the east of DdU and the pressure at DdU starts building up, as reported in some earlier studies. The response of wind to the approaching depression is not the same for all the events but depends on the downslope pressure difference and the movement of the depression that is often conditioned by the presence of a blocking high to the northeast. The wind comes down if the system starts penetrating inland due to the presence of the high pressure ridge to the northeast and decreasing dp. It is observed that the winds at Dome C increase to as high as 17 m s-1 with the inland penetration of the depression.

  5. The Analysis of Tree Species Distribution Information Extraction and Landscape Pattern Based on Remote Sensing Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zeng

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The forest ecosystem is the largest land vegetation type, which plays the role of unreplacement with its unique value. And in the landscape scale, the research on forest landscape pattern has become the current hot spot, wherein the study of forest canopy structure is very important. They determines the process and the strength of forests energy flow, which influences the adjustments of ecosystem for climate and species diversity to some extent. The extraction of influencing factors of canopy structure and the analysis of the vegetation distribution pattern are especially important. To solve the problems, remote sensing technology, which is superior to other technical means because of its fine timeliness and large-scale monitoring, is applied to the study. Taking Lingkong Mountain as the study area, the paper uses the remote sensing image to analyze the forest distribution pattern and obtains the spatial characteristics of canopy structure distribution, and DEM data are as the basic data to extract the influencing factors of canopy structure. In this paper, pattern of trees distribution is further analyzed by using terrain parameters, spatial analysis tools and surface processes quantitative simulation. The Hydrological Analysis tool is used to build distributed hydrological model, and corresponding algorithm is applied to determine surface water flow path, rivers network and basin boundary. Results show that forest vegetation distribution of dominant tree species present plaque on the landscape scale and their distribution have spatial heterogeneity which is related to terrain factors closely. After the overlay analysis of aspect, slope and forest distribution pattern respectively, the most suitable area for stand growth and the better living condition are obtained.

  6. Non-compliance with a postmastectomy radiotherapy guideline: decision tree and cause analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Amir R; Gill, Hans; Ahlfeldt, Hans; Shahsavar, Nosrat

    2008-09-21

    The guideline for postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT), which is prescribed to reduce recurrence of breast cancer in the chest wall and improve overall survival, is not always followed. Identifying and extracting important patterns of non-compliance are crucial in maintaining the quality of care in Oncology. Analysis of 759 patients with malignant breast cancer using decision tree induction (DTI) found patterns of non-compliance with the guideline. The PMRT guideline was used to separate cases according to the recommendation to receive or not receive PMRT. The two groups of patients were analyzed separately. Resulting patterns were transformed into rules that were then compared with the reasons that were extracted by manual inspection of records for the non-compliant cases. Analyzing patients in the group who should receive PMRT according to the guideline did not result in a robust decision tree. However, classification of the other group, patients who should not receive PMRT treatment according to the guideline, resulted in a tree with nine leaves and three of them were representing non-compliance with the guideline. In a comparison between rules resulting from these three non-compliant patterns and manual inspection of patient records, the following was found: In the decision tree, presence of perigland growth is the most important variable followed by number of malignantly invaded lymph nodes and level of Progesterone receptor. DNA index, age, size of the tumor and level of Estrogen receptor are also involved but with less importance. From manual inspection of the cases, the most frequent pattern for non-compliance is age above the threshold followed by near cut-off values for risk factors and unknown reasons. Comparison of patterns of non-compliance acquired from data mining and manual inspection of patient records demonstrates that not all of the non-compliances are repetitive or important. There are some overlaps between important variables acquired from manual

  7. Radiocarbon Analysis of Single-Year Tree Rings at the Last Glacial-Deglacial Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsumata, M.; Minoura, K.; Horiuchi, K.; Sibata, Y.

    2007-12-01

    in sunspots at this transition. Radiocarbon analysis of tree rings from the buried forest may be a means towards the elucidation of correlation between solar activity and climate changes.

  8. Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

    2018-03-01

    Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

  9. Event history analysis and the cross-section

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels

    Lexis diagram; current status; prevalent cohort; interim analysis; pharmaco-epidemiology; inverse probability weighting......Lexis diagram; current status; prevalent cohort; interim analysis; pharmaco-epidemiology; inverse probability weighting...

  10. Distributed Contour Trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morozov, Dmitriy; Weber, Gunther H.

    2014-03-31

    Topological techniques provide robust tools for data analysis. They are used, for example, for feature extraction, for data de-noising, and for comparison of data sets. This chapter concerns contour trees, a topological descriptor that records the connectivity of the isosurfaces of scalar functions. These trees are fundamental to analysis and visualization of physical phenomena modeled by real-valued measurements. We study the parallel analysis of contour trees. After describing a particular representation of a contour tree, called local{global representation, we illustrate how di erent problems that rely on contour trees can be solved in parallel with minimal communication.

  11. Automatic prediction of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events using heart rate variability analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Melillo

    Full Text Available There is consensus that Heart Rate Variability is associated with the risk of vascular events. However, Heart Rate Variability predictive value for vascular events is not completely clear. The aim of this study is to develop novel predictive models based on data-mining algorithms to provide an automatic risk stratification tool for hypertensive patients.A database of 139 Holter recordings with clinical data of hypertensive patients followed up for at least 12 months were collected ad hoc. Subjects who experienced a vascular event (i.e., myocardial infarction, stroke, syncopal event were considered as high-risk subjects. Several data-mining algorithms (such as support vector machine, tree-based classifier, artificial neural network were used to develop automatic classifiers and their accuracy was tested by assessing the receiver-operator characteristics curve. Moreover, we tested the echographic parameters, which have been showed as powerful predictors of future vascular events.The best predictive model was based on random forest and enabled to identify high-risk hypertensive patients with sensitivity and specificity rates of 71.4% and 87.8%, respectively. The Heart Rate Variability based classifier showed higher predictive values than the conventional echographic parameters, which are considered as significant cardiovascular risk factors.Combination of Heart Rate Variability measures, analyzed with data-mining algorithm, could be a reliable tool for identifying hypertensive patients at high risk to develop future vascular events.

  12. ERPWAVELAB A toolbox for multi-channel analysis of time-frequency transformed event related potentials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Hansen, Lars Kai; Arnfred, Sidse M.

    2006-01-01

    The toolbox 'ERPWAVELAB' is developed for multi-channel time-frequency analysis of event related activity of EEG and MEG data. The toolbox provides tools for data analysis and visualization of the most commonly used measures of time-frequency transformed event related data as well as data...

  13. Cognitive Shortest Path Tree Restoration (CSPTR) for MANET Using Cost-Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huan; Cheng, Bo-Chao; Tseng, Po-Kai

    With quick topology changes due to mobile node movement or signal fading in MANET environments, conventional routing restoration processes are costly to implement and may incur high flooding of network traffic overhead and long routing path latency. Adopting the traditional shortest path tree (SPT) recomputation and restoration schemes used in Internet routing protocols will not work effectively for MANET. An object of the next generation SPT restoration system is to provide a cost-effective solution using an adaptive learning control system, wherein the SPT restoration engine is able to skip over the heavy SPT computation. We proposed a novel SPT restoration scheme, called Cognitive Shortest Path Tree Restoration (CSPTR). CSPTR is designed based on the Network Simplex Method (NSM) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) techniques to provide a comprehensive and low-cost link failure healing process. NSM is used to derive the shortest paths for each node, while the use of SA can greatly reduce the effort of unnecessary recomputation of the SPT when network topology changes. In practice, a SA range table is used to enable the learning capability of CSPTR. The performance of computing and communication overheads are compared with other two well-known schemes, such as Dijstra's algorithm and incremental OSPF. Results show that CSPTR can greatly eliminate unnecessary SPT recomputation and reduce large amounts of the flooding overheads.

  14. [Identification of subgroups with lower level of stroke knowledge using decision-tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun Kyung; Jeong, Seok Hee; Kang, Hyun Cheol

    2014-02-01

    This study was performed to explore levels of stroke knowledge and identify subgroups with lower levels of stroke knowledge among adults in Korea. A cross-sectional survey was used and data were collected in 2012. A national sample of 990 Koreans aged 20 to 74 years participated in this study. Knowledge of risk factors, warning signs, and first action for stroke were surveyed using face-to-face interviews. Descriptive statistics and decision tree analysis were performed using SPSS WIN 20.0 and Answer Tree 3.1. Mean score for stroke risk factor knowledge was 7.7 out of 10. The least recognized risk factor was diabetes and four subgroups with lower levels of knowledge were identified. Score for knowledge of stroke warning signs was 3.6 out of 6. The least recognized warning sign was sudden severe headache and six subgroups with lower levels of knowledge were identified. The first action for stroke was recognized by 65.7 percent of participants and four subgroups with lower levels of knowledge were identified. Multi-faceted education should be designed to improve stroke knowledge among Korean adults, particularly focusing on subgroups with lower levels of knowledge and less recognition of items in this study.

  15. Time-Dependent Tree-Structured Survival Analysis with Unbiased Variable Selection through Permutation Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    Incorporating time-dependent covariates into tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA) may result in more accurate prognostic models than if only baseline values are used. Available time-dependent TSSA methods exhaustively test every binary split on every covariate; however, this approach may result in selection bias towards covariates with more observed values. We present a method that uses unbiased significance levels from newly proposed permutation tests to select the time-dependent or baseline covariate with the strongest relationship with the survival outcome. The specific splitting value is identified using only the selected covariate. Simulation results show that the proposed time-dependent TSSA method produces tree models of equal or greater accuracy as compared to baseline TSSA models, even with high censoring rates and large within-subject variability in the time-dependent covariate. To illustrate, the proposed method is applied to data from a cohort of bipolar youth to identify subgroups at risk for self-injurious behavior. PMID:25043382

  16. Determination of uranium in tree bark samples by epithermal neutron activation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Nicole Pereira de; Saiki, Mitiko, E-mail: mitiko@ipen.com [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-11-01

    In this study uranium (U) concentrations were determined in certified reference materials (CRMs) and in tree bark samples collected in 'Cidade Universitaria Armando de Salles Oliveira' (CUASO) USP, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil). The barks were collected from different species namely Poincianella pluviosa and Tipuana tipu. These bark samples were cleaned, dried, grated and milled for the analyses by epithermal neutron activation analysis method (ENAA). This method consists on irradiating samples and U standard in IEAR1 nuclear reactor with thermal neutron flux of 1:9 x 10{sup 12} n cm{sup -2} s{sup -1} during 40 to 60 seconds depending on the samples matrices. The samples and standard were measured by gamma ray spectroscopy. U was identified by the peak of 74.66 keV of {sup 239}U with half life of 23.47 minutes. Concentration of U was calculated by comparative method. For analytical quality control of U results, certified reference materials were analysed. Results obtained for CRMs presented good precision and accuracy, with |Z score| <= 0.39. Uranium concentrations in tree barks varied from 83.1 to 627.6 ng g{sup -} {sup 1} and the relative standard deviations of these results ranged from 1.8 to 10%. (author)

  17. Seasonal precipitation reconstruction and teleconnections with ENSO based on tree ring analysis of Pinus cooperi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompa-García, Marín; Jurado, Enrique

    2014-08-01

    Tendencies of climatic variability indicate that northern Mexico will soon suffer from severe drought. Modeling the influence of climate and ecological processes would help researchers better understand the future implication of climatic variations. Here, we reconstructed historical seasonal precipitation using dendrochronological indices of Pinus cooperi and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlation analysis was conducted to establish the precipitation response period; then a reconstruction model using independent variables was constructed using regression procedures. Available data were calibrated and verified to strengthen and validate the modeled reconstruction. Precipitation from the previous winter was best correlated with tree growth. Regression procedures showed that the residual chronology associated in a linear model with El Niño 3.4 explained 47 % of seasonal precipitation variability. This study contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and the influence of ENSO in common tree species of northern Mexico to help land managers improve local forest management in a climate change scenario.

  18. Characterization of microstructures using contour tree connectivity for fluid flow analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydogan, Dogu Baran; Hyttinen, Jari

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the connectivity of material microstructures is important for a wide range of applications from filters to biomaterials. Currently, the most used measure of connectivity is the Euler number, which is a topological invariant. Topology alone, however, is not sufficient for most practical purposes. In this study, we use our recently introduced connectivity measure, called the contour tree connectivity (CTC), to study microstructures for flow analysis. CTC is a new structural connectivity measure that is based on contour trees and algebraic graph theory. To test CTC, we generated a dataset composed of 120 samples and six different types of artificial microstructures. We compared CTC against the Euler parameter (EP), the parameter for connected pairs, the nominal opening dimension (dnom) and the permeabilities estimated using direct pore scale modelling. The results show that dnom is highly correlated with permeability (R2 = 0.91), but cannot separate the structural differences. The groups are best classified with feature combinations that include CTC. CTC provides new information with a different connectivity interpretation that can be used to analyse and design materials with complex microstructures. PMID:24671931

  19. Thermomechanical Stresses Analysis of a Single Event Burnout Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tais, Carlos E.; Romero, Eduardo; Demarco, Gustavo L.

    2009-06-01

    This work analyzes the thermal and mechanical effects arising in a power Diffusion Metal Oxide Semiconductor (DMOS) during a Single Event Burnout (SEB) process. For studying these effects we propose a more detailed simulation structure than the previously used by other authors, solving the mathematical models by means of the Finite Element Method. We use a cylindrical heat generation region, with 5 W, 10 W, 50 W and 100 W for emulating the thermal phenomena occurring during SEB processes, avoiding the complexity of the mathematical treatment of the ion-semiconductor interaction.

  20. Analysis of earth-moving systems using discrete-event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.M. Shawki

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Discrete-event simulation has been widely used technique in analyzing construction operations for the past three decades due to its great effect on optimizing cost and productivity. In this paper we will present Arena as a tool for simulating earthwork operations, the advantage of Arena is its easiness and flexibility in simulating most kinds of models in different areas of construction. A case study will be presented, a model will be built and results obtained to reveal the mentioned objectives.

  1. Adverse clinical events reported during Invisalign treatment: Analysis of the MAUDE database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Nalliah, Romesh; Lee, Min Kyeong; Rampa, Sankeerth; Allareddy, Veerajalandhar

    2017-11-01

    The objectives of this study were to examine adverse clinical events after the use of the Invisalign system and to provide an overview of the actions taken by the manufacturer to address these events. A retrospective analysis of the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience database of the United States Food and Drug Administration was used. All medical device reports reported to the United States Food and Drug Administration pertaining to products of Align Technology from November 1, 2006, to November 30, 2016, were analyzed. Qualitative content analysis was conducted of event descriptions and manufacturer narrative reports. A total of 173 medical device reports were reported in the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience database: 169 (97.7%) were designated as adverse event reports, and 45 (26%) were deemed by the treating doctor to be serious or life threatening. The most medical device reports that reported a serious or life-threatening event were in 2014 (50%). The most frequently reported adverse event was difficulty breathing (56 events) followed by sore throat (35 events), swollen throat (34 events), swollen tongue (31 events), hives and itchiness (31 events), anaphylaxis (30 events), swollen lips (27 events), and feeling of throat closing/tight airway/airway obstruction/laryngospasm (24 events). Serious or life-threatening events could be associated with use of Invisalign systems. Health care providers should be aware of these events and know how to handle them if they arise in their practices. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of loss of offsite power events reported in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Volkanovski, Andrija, E-mail: Andrija.VOLKANOVSKI@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Ballesteros Avila, Antonio; Peinador Veira, Miguel [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Kančev, Duško [Kernkraftwerk Goesgen-Daeniken AG, CH-4658 Daeniken (Switzerland); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Stephan, Jean-Luc [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 – 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

    2016-10-15

    Highlights: • Loss of offsite power events were identified in four databases. • Engineering analysis of relevant events was done. • The dominant root cause for LOOP are human failures. • Improved maintenance procedures can decrease the number of LOOP events. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of analysis of the loss of offsite power events (LOOP) in four databases of operational events. The screened databases include: the Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases, the IAEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience (IRS) and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports (LER). In total 228 relevant loss of offsite power events were identified in the IRSN database, 190 in the GRS database, 120 in U.S. LER and 52 in IRS database. Identified events were classified in predefined categories. Obtained results show that the largest percentage of LOOP events is registered during On power operational mode and lasted for two minutes or more. The plant centered events is the main contributor to LOOP events identified in IRSN, GRS and IAEA IRS database. The switchyard centered events are the main contributor in events registered in the NRC LER database. The main type of failed equipment is switchyard failures in IRSN and IAEA IRS, main or secondary lines in NRC LER and busbar failures in GRS database. The dominant root cause for the LOOP events are human failures during test, inspection and maintenance followed by human failures due to the insufficient or wrong procedures. The largest number of LOOP events resulted in reactor trip followed by EDG start. The actions that can result in reduction of the number of LOOP events and minimize consequences on plant safety are identified and presented.

  3. Fault Tree Analysis for Safety/Security Verification in Aviation Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Kornecki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Next Generation Air Traffic Management system (NextGen is a blueprint of the future National Airspace System. Supporting NextGen is a nation-wide Aviation Simulation Network (ASN, which allows integration of a variety of real-time simulations to facilitate development and validation of the NextGen software by simulating a wide range of operational scenarios. The ASN system is an environment, including both simulated and human-in-the-loop real-life components (pilots and air traffic controllers. Real Time Distributed Simulation (RTDS developed at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, a suite of applications providing low and medium fidelity en-route simulation capabilities, is one of the simulations contributing to the ASN. To support the interconnectivity with the ASN, we designed and implemented a dedicated gateway acting as an intermediary, providing logic for two-way communication and transfer messages between RTDS and ASN and storage for the exchanged data. It has been necessary to develop and analyze safety/security requirements for the gateway software based on analysis of system assets, hazards, threats and attacks related to ultimate real-life future implementation. Due to the nature of the system, the focus was placed on communication security and the related safety of the impacted aircraft in the simulation scenario. To support development of safety/security requirements, a well-established fault tree analysis technique was used. This fault tree model-based analysis, supported by a commercial tool, was a foundation to propose mitigations assuring the gateway system safety and security. 

  4. Comparative analysis of genome sequences of the conifer tree pathogen, Heterobasidion annosum s.s.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaeyoung Choi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The causal agent of root and butt rot of conifer trees, Heterobasidion annosum, is widespread in boreal forests and economically responsible for annual loss of approximately 50 million euros to forest industries in Finland alone and much more at European level. In order to further understand the pathobiology of this fungus at the genome level, a Finnish isolate of H. annosum sensu stricto (isolate 03012 was sequenced and analyzed with the genome sequences of 23 white-rot and 13 brown-rot fungi. The draft genome assembly of H. annosum has a size of 31.01 Mb, containing 11,453 predicted genes. Whole genome alignment showed that 84.38% of H. annosum genome sequences were aligned with those of previously sequenced H. irregulare TC 32-1 counterparts. The result is further supported by the protein sequence clustering analysis which revealed that the two genomes share 6719 out of 8647 clusters. When sequencing reads of H. annosum were aligned against the genome sequences of H. irregulare, six single nucleotide polymorphisms were found in every 1 kb, on average. In addition, 98.68% of SNPs were found to be homo-variants, suggesting that the two species have long evolved from different niches. Gene family analysis revealed that most of the white-rot fungi investigated had more gene families involved in lignin degradation or modification, including laccases and peroxidase. Comparative analysis of the two Heterobasidion spp. as well as white-/brown-rot fungi would provide new insights for understanding the pathobiology of the conifer tree pathogen.

  5. Comparative analysis of genome sequences of the conifer tree pathogen, Heterobasidion annosum s.s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jaeyoung; Lee, Gir-Won; Kim, Ki-Tae; Jeon, Jongbum; Détry, Nicolas; Kuo, Hsiao-Che; Sun, Hui; Asiegbu, Fred O; Lee, Yong-Hwan

    2017-12-01

    The causal agent of root and butt rot of conifer trees, Heterobasidion annosum, is widespread in boreal forests and economically responsible for annual loss of approximately 50 million euros to forest industries in Finland alone and much more at European level. In order to further understand the pathobiology of this fungus at the genome level, a Finnish isolate of H. annosum sensu stricto (isolate 03012) was sequenced and analyzed with the genome sequences of 23 white-rot and 13 brown-rot fungi. The draft genome assembly of H. annosum has a size of 31.01 Mb, containing 11,453 predicted genes. Whole genome alignment showed that 84.38% of H. annosum genome sequences were aligned with those of previously sequenced H. irregulare TC 32-1 counterparts. The result is further supported by the protein sequence clustering analysis which revealed that the two genomes share 6719 out of 8647 clusters. When sequencing reads of H. annosum were aligned against the genome sequences of H. irregulare, six single nucleotide polymorphisms were found in every 1 kb, on average. In addition, 98.68% of SNPs were found to be homo-variants, suggesting that the two species have long evolved from different niches. Gene family analysis revealed that most of the white-rot fungi investigated had more gene families involved in lignin degradation or modification, including laccases and peroxidase. Comparative analysis of the two Heterobasidion spp. as well as white-/brown-rot fungi would provide new insights for understanding the pathobiology of the conifer tree pathogen.

  6. Spatial analysis of the habitat and distribution of Osmoderma eremita (Scop. in trees outside of woodlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoît Dodelin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The endangered and specialised saproxylic beetle Osmoderma eremita occurs in veteran trees, a habitat particularly threatened by changes in agricultural landscapes. Its conservation requires information about populations and key features of host trees. Surveys of 8,014 trees (pollarded or in hedgerows were carried out and analysed, based on habitat description (tree level and spatial information (hedgerow length and distance to the nearest inhabited tree. A suitable cavity was present in 61% of the trees and O. eremita was detected in 42 trees, mainly in Salix (30 observations, the most common tree amongst those surveyed. A small or absent crown was a significant factor in explaining the beetle’s presence, as was the distance to the nearest inhabited tree. The largest population of O. eremita, 19 inhabited trees, was found in a wide and continuous area formed by trees with suitable cavities, with distances of less than 250m from each another. Seven smaller areas, with 7, 5 or 1 inhabited trees, were also found. When analysing inhabited trees on a 1km² grid, 17km2 hosted O. eremita, corresponding to a dense network of 63km of hedges. The presence of O. eremita significantly increased per km² with increasing length of hedges and this variable was thus used to guide forthcoming investigations directed toward Osmoderma. As the hedgerows existing in 1999 had decreased by 6.1% in 2009, it is concluded that the long term survival of O. eremita is under threat. The preservation of trees outside woodlands is urgent and has already started, in connection with Natura 2000 policies. Regeneration and creation of new hedgerows is also ongoing and can be reinforced both by using Salix and by promoting pruning to increase formation of cavities.

  7. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  8. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay P. Sah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  9. Latent tree models

    OpenAIRE

    Zwiernik, Piotr

    2017-01-01

    Latent tree models are graphical models defined on trees, in which only a subset of variables is observed. They were first discussed by Judea Pearl as tree-decomposable distributions to generalise star-decomposable distributions such as the latent class model. Latent tree models, or their submodels, are widely used in: phylogenetic analysis, network tomography, computer vision, causal modeling, and data clustering. They also contain other well-known classes of models like hidden Markov models...

  10. Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamadfam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

  11. Analysis of ionospheric parameters during Solar events and geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandrikova Oksana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper shows new methods of analysis of ionospheric and magnetic data applying the models of multicomponent constructions (MCM models developed by the authors. Based on ground station data, the analysis of ionospheric and magnetic data during increased solar activity was carried out.

  12. You Never Walk Alone: Recommending Academic Events Based on Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klamma, Ralf; Cuong, Pham Manh; Cao, Yiwei

    Combining Social Network Analysis and recommender systems is a challenging research field. In scientific communities, recommender systems have been applied to provide useful tools for papers, books as well as expert finding. However, academic events (conferences, workshops, international symposiums etc.) are an important driven forces to move forwards cooperation among research communities. We realize a SNA based approach for academic events recommendation problem. Scientific communities analysis and visualization are performed to provide an insight into the communities of event series. A prototype is implemented based on the data from DBLP and EventSeer.net, and the result is observed in order to prove the approach.

  13. Multiple alignment analysis on phylogenetic tree of the spread of SARS epidemic using distance method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiroch, S.; Pradana, M. S.; Irawan, M. I.; Mukhlash, I.

    2017-09-01

    Multiple Alignment (MA) is a particularly important tool for studying the viral genome and determine the evolutionary process of the specific virus. Application of MA in the case of the spread of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic is an interesting thing because this virus epidemic a few years ago spread so quickly that medical attention in many countries. Although there has been a lot of software to process multiple sequences, but the use of pairwise alignment to process MA is very important to consider. In previous research, the alignment between the sequences to process MA algorithm, Super Pairwise Alignment, but in this study used a dynamic programming algorithm Needleman wunchs simulated in Matlab. From the analysis of MA obtained and stable region and unstable which indicates the position where the mutation occurs, the system network topology that produced the phylogenetic tree of the SARS epidemic distance method, and system area networks mutation.

  14. Detecting road maps for capacity utilization decisions by Clustering Analysis and CHAID Decision Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

    2010-08-01

    The aims of this study are to provide a standard CUR value, to determine financial and organizational factors which affect the capacity utilization and develop road maps for increasing capacity utilization. To reach these aims by an objective method, we used data mining method that discovers hidden and useful pattern in a large amount of data. Two different method of data mining were used in two stages for this study. In first step, standard value of CUR was determined by K-means Clustering Analysis. CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm as a second method was implemented for determination of impact factors that provided steps for road maps. The study was concerned Turkish Ministry of Health public hospitals. 592 hospitals were covered and financial and operational data of the year 2004 were used in the study. Finally two different road maps were developed and suggestions were made according the results of the study.

  15. Time Series Analysis of Sound Data on Interactive Calling Behavior of Japanese Tree Frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horai, Shunsuke; Aihara, Ikkyu; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    We have analyzed time series data of sound on interactive calling behavior of two male Japanese tree frogs (Hyla japonica Nihon-Ama-Gaeru). First, we have extracted two time series data mainly corresponding to respective frogs from the single time series data of calls of two frogs by the free and cross-platform sound editor Audacity. Then, we have quantitatively analyzed timing and inter-call intervals of respective frogs. Finally, we have characterized nonstationarily temporal change of the interactive calling behavior of two frogs by analysis of the cross recurrence plot. The results have shown that a pair of male frogs called in almost anti-phase synchronization after a short-term period of nearly in-phase synchronization, which implies existence of complex interactive calling behavior of two male frogs.

  16. Independent component analysis and decision trees for ECG holter recording de-noising.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Kuzilek

    Full Text Available We have developed a method focusing on ECG signal de-noising using Independent component analysis (ICA. This approach combines JADE source separation and binary decision tree for identification and subsequent ECG noise removal. In order to to test the efficiency of this method comparison to standard filtering a wavelet- based de-noising method was used. Freely data available at Physionet medical data storage were evaluated. Evaluation criteria was root mean square error (RMSE between original ECG and filtered data contaminated with artificial noise. Proposed algorithm achieved comparable result in terms of standard noises (power line interference, base line wander, EMG, but noticeably significantly better results were achieved when uncommon noise (electrode cable movement artefact were compared.

  17. Identification and analysis of alternative splicing events in Phaseolus vulgaris and Glycine max.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iñiguez, Luis P; Ramírez, Mario; Barbazuk, William B; Hernández, Georgina

    2017-08-22

    The vast diversification of proteins in eukaryotic cells has been related with multiple transcript isoforms from a single gene that result in alternative splicing (AS) of primary transcripts. Analysis of RNA sequencing data from expressed sequence tags and next generation RNA sequencing has been crucial for AS identification and genome-wide AS studies. For the identification of AS events from the related legume species Phaseolus vulgaris and Glycine max, 157 and 88 publicly available RNA-seq libraries, respectively, were analyzed. We identified 85,570 AS events from P. vulgaris in 72% of expressed genes and 134,316 AS events in 70% of expressed genes from G. max. These were categorized in seven AS event types with intron retention being the most abundant followed by alternative acceptor and alternative donor, representing ~75% of all AS events in both plants. Conservation of AS events in homologous genes between the two species was analyzed where an overrepresentation of AS affecting 5'UTR regions was observed for certain types of AS events. The conservation of AS events was experimentally validated for 8 selected genes, through RT-PCR analysis. The different types of AS events also varied by relative position in the genes. The results were consistent in both species. The identification and analysis of AS events are first steps to understand their biological relevance. The results presented here from two related legume species reveal high conservation, over ~15-20 MY of divergence, and may point to the biological relevance of AS.

  18. Transcriptome analysis of a subtropical deciduous tree: autumn leaf senescence gene expression profile of Formosan gum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Chi-Hsiang; Lin, Shih-Shun; Chu, Fang-Hua

    2015-01-01

    Autumn leaf senescence is a spectacular natural phenomenon; however, the regulation networks controlling autumnal colors and the leaf senescence program remain largely unelucidated. Whether regulation of leaf senescence is similar in subtropical deciduous plants and temperate deciduous plants is also unknown. In this study, the gene expression of a subtropical deciduous tree, Formosan gum (Liquidambar formosana Hance), was profiled. The transcriptomes of April leaves (green leaves, 'G') and December leaves (red leaves, 'R') were investigated by next-generation gene sequencing. Out of 58,402 de novo assembled contigs, 32,637 were annotated as putative genes. Furthermore, the L. formosana-specific microarray designed based on total contigs was used to extend the observation period throughout the growing seasons of 2011-2013. Network analysis from the gene expression profile focused on the genes up-regulated when autumn leaf senescence occurred. LfWRKY70, LfWRKY75, LfWRKY65, LfNAC1, LfSPL14, LfNAC100 and LfMYB113 were shown to be key regulators of leaf senescnece, and the genes regulated by LfWRKY75, LfNAC1 and LfMYB113 are candidates to link chlorophyll degradation and anthocyanin biosynthesis to senescence. In summary, the gene expression profiles over the entire year of the developing leaf from subtropical deciduous trees were used for in silico analysis and the putative gene regulation in autumn coloration and leaf senescence is discussed in this study. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Predictive model of biliocystic communication in liver hydatid cysts using classification and regression tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souadka Amine

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Incidence of liver hydatid cyst (LHC rupture ranged 15%-40% of all cases and most of them concern the bile duct tree. Patients with biliocystic communication (BCC had specific clinic and therapeutic aspect. The purpose of this study was to determine witch patients with LHC may develop BCC using classification and regression tree (CART analysis Methods A retrospective study of 672 patients with liver hydatid cyst treated at the surgery department "A" at Ibn Sina University Hospital, Rabat Morocco. Four-teen risk factors for BCC occurrence were entered into CART analysis to build an algorithm that can predict at the best way the occurrence of BCC. Results Incidence of BCC was 24.5%. Subgroups with high risk were patients with jaundice and thick pericyst risk at 73.2% and patients with thick pericyst, with no jaundice 36.5 years and younger with no past history of LHC risk at 40.5%. Our developed CART model has sensitivity at 39.6%, specificity at 93.3%, positive predictive value at 65.6%, a negative predictive value at 82.6% and accuracy of good classification at 80.1%. Discriminating ability of the model was good 82%. Conclusion we developed a simple classification tool to identify LHC patients with high risk BCC during a routine clinic visit (only on clinical history and examination followed by an ultrasonography. Predictive factors were based on pericyst aspect, jaundice, age, past history of liver hydatidosis and morphological Gharbi cyst aspect. We think that this classification can be useful with efficacy to direct patients at appropriated medical struct's.

  20. Diagnostic assessment of intraoperative cytology for papillary thyroid carcinoma: using a decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyo, J-S; Sohn, J H; Kang, G

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to elucidate the cytological characteristics and the diagnostic usefulness of intraoperative cytology (IOC) for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). In addition, using decision tree analysis, effective features for accurate cytological diagnosis were sought. We investigated cellularity, cytological features and diagnosis based on the Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology in IOC of 240 conventional PTCs. The cytological features were evaluated in terms of nuclear score with nuclear features, and additional figures such as presence of swirling sheets, psammoma bodies, and multinucleated giant cells. The nuclear score (range 0-7) was made via seven nuclear features, including (1) enlarged, (2) oval or irregularly shaped nuclei, (3) longitudinal nuclear grooves, (4) intranuclear cytoplasmic pseudoinclusion, (5) pale nuclei with powdery chromatin, (6) nuclear membrane thickening, and (7) marginally placed micronucleoli. Nuclear scores in PTC, suspicious for malignancy, and atypia of undetermined significance cases were 6.18 ± 0.80, 4.48 ± 0.82, and 3.15 ± 0.67, respectively. Additional figures more frequent in PTC than in other diagnostic categories were identified. Cellularity of IOC significantly correlated with tumor size, nuclear score, and presence of additional figures. Also, IOCs with higher nuclear scores (4-7) significantly correlated with larger tumor size and presence of additional figures. In decision tree analysis, IOCs with nuclear score >5 and swirling sheets could be considered diagnostic for PTCs. Our study suggests that IOCs using nuclear features and additional figures could be useful with decreasing the likelihood of inconclusive results.

  1. Analysis of recurrent events: a systematic review of randomised controlled trials of interventions to prevent falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson, Meghan G; Sobolev, Boris; Cook, Wendy L; Janssen, Patti A; Khan, Karim M

    2009-03-01

    there are several well-developed statistical methods for analysing recurrent events. Although there are guidelines for reporting the design and methodology of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), analysis guidelines do not exist to guide the analysis for RCTs with recurrent events. Application of statistical methods that do not account for recurrent events may provide erroneous results when used to test the efficacy of an intervention. It is unknown what proportion of RCTs of falls prevention studies have utilised statistical methods that incorporate recurrent events. we conducted a systematic review of RCTs of interventions to prevent falls in community-dwelling older persons. We searched Medline from 1994 to November 2006. We determined the proportion of studies that reported using three statistical methods appropriate for the analysis of recurrent events (negative binomial regression, Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox model and the WLW marginal model). fewer than one-third of 83 papers that reported falls as an outcome utilised any appropriate statistical method (negative binomial regression, Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox model and Cox marginal model) to analyse recurrent events and fewer than 15% utilised graphical methods to represent falls data. RCTs that have a recurrent event end-point should include an analysis appropriate for recurrent event data such as negative binomial regression, Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox model and/or the WLW marginal model. We recommend that researchers and clinicians seek consultation with a statistician with expertise in recurrent event methodology.

  2. Timing of False Ring Formation in Pinus halepensis and Arbutus unedo in Southern Italy: Outlook from an Analysis of Xylogenesis and Tree-Ring Chronologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Micco, Veronica; Balzano, Angela; Čufar, Katarina; Aronne, Giovanna; Gričar, Jožica; Merela, Maks; Battipaglia, Giovanna

    2016-01-01

    Mediterranean tree rings are characterized by intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) due to partly climate-driven cambial activity. IADFs are used as structural signals to gain information on relations between environmental conditions and eco-physiological processes during xylogenesis, with intra-annual resolution. To reach an unbiased synchronization of the IADF position within tree rings and seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions, it is necessary to know the timing of cambial activity and wood formation, which are species- and site-specific processes. We applied the microcoring technique to analyze xylogenesis in Pinus halepensis and Arbutus unedo. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study xylogenesis in a hardwood species forming frequent IADFs. Both species co-occur at a site in southern Italy characterized by a Mediterranean climate. To facilitate tree-ring dating and identification of IADFs, we performed traditional dendroecological analysis. We analyzed xylogenesis during summer, which is considered a constraint for xylogenesis and a trigger for IADF formation. We followed the different phases of cell development in the current wood increment with the aim of evaluating whether and which type of IADFs were formed. We additionally analyzed the same phases again in September and in winter to verify the possible formation of IADFs in fall and whether cell production and differentiation was completed by the end of the calendar year. Both species formed the same type of IADFs (earlywood-like cells within latewood), due to temporary growth restoration triggered by rain events during the period of summer drought. At the end of the calendar year, no cells in the phases of enlargement and secondary cell wall deposition occurred. A. unedo was more sensitive than P. halepensis because IADFs were formed earlier in the season and were more frequent in the tree-ring series. The dendro-anatomical approach, combining analysis of tree

  3. TIMING OF FALSE RING FORMATION IN PINUS HALEPENSIS AND ARBUTUS UNEDO IN SOUTHERN ITALY: OUTLOOK FROM AN ANALYSIS OF XYLOGENESIS AND TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica eDe Micco

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Mediterranean tree rings are characterized by Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs due to partly climate-driven cambial activity. IADFs are used as structural signals to gain information on relations between environmental conditions and eco-physiological processes during xylogenesis, with intra-annual resolution.To reach an unbiased synchronization of the IADF position within tree rings and seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions, it is necessary to know the timing of cambial activity and wood formation, which are species- and site-specific processes.We applied the microcoring technique to analyze xylogenesis in Pinus halepensis and Arbutus unedo. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study xylogenesis in a hardwood species forming frequent IADFs. Both species co-occur at a site in southern Italy characterized by a Mediterranean climate. To facilitate tree-ring dating and identification of IADFs, we performed traditional dendroecological analysis. We analyzed xylogenesis during summer, which is considered a constraint for xylogenesis and a trigger for IADF formation. We followed the different phases of cell development in the current wood increment with the aim of evaluating whether and which type of IADFs were formed. We additionally analyzed the same phases again in September and in winter to verify the possible formation of IADFs in fall and whether cell production and differentiation was completed by the end of the calendar year.Both species formed the same type of IADFs (earlywood-like cells within latewood, due to temporary growth restoration triggered by rain events during the period of summer drought. At the end of the calendar year, no cells in the phases of enlargement and secondary cell wall deposition occurred. A. unedo was more sensitive than P. halepensis because IADFs were formed earlier in the season and were more frequent in the tree-ring series.The dendro-anatomical approach, combining

  4. Predictors of sentinel lymph node status in cutaneous melanoma: a classification and regression tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejera-Vaquerizo, A; Martín-Cuevas, P; Gallego, E; Herrera-Acosta, E; Traves, V; Herrera-Ceballos, E; Nagore, E

    2015-04-01

    The main aim of this study was to identify predictors of sentinel lymph node (SN) metastasis in cutaneous melanoma. This was a retrospective cohort study of 818 patients in 2 tertiary-level hospitals. The primary outcome variable was SN involvement. Independent predictors were identified using multiple logistic regression and a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Ulceration, tumor thickness, and a high mitotic rate (≥6 mitoses/mm(2)) were independently associated with SN metastasis in the multiple regression analysis. The most important predictor in the CART analysis was Breslow thickness. Absence of an inflammatory infiltrate, patient age, and tumor location were predictive of SN metastasis in patients with tumors thicker than 2mm. In the case of thinner melanomas, the predictors were mitotic rate (>6 mitoses/mm(2)), presence of ulceration, and tumor thickness. Patient age, mitotic rate, and tumor thickness and location were predictive of survival. A high mitotic rate predicts a higher risk of SN involvement and worse survival. CART analysis improves the prediction of regional metastasis, resulting in better clinical management of melanoma patients. It may also help select suitable candidates for inclusion in clinical trials. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  5. Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

    2015-07-01

    The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

  6. High-resolution tree canopy mapping for New York City using LIDAR and object-based image analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacFaden, Sean W.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.; Royar, Anna R.; Lu, Jacqueline W. T.; Rundle, Andrew G.

    2012-01-01

    Urban tree canopy is widely believed to have myriad environmental, social, and human-health benefits, but a lack of precise canopy estimates has hindered quantification of these benefits in many municipalities. This problem was addressed for New York City using object-based image analysis (OBIA) to develop a comprehensive land-cover map, including tree canopy to the scale of individual trees. Mapping was performed using a rule-based expert system that relied primarily on high-resolution LIDAR, specifically its capacity for evaluating the height and texture of aboveground features. Multispectral imagery was also used, but shadowing and varying temporal conditions limited its utility. Contextual analysis was a key part of classification, distinguishing trees according to their physical and spectral properties as well as their relationships to adjacent, nonvegetated features. The automated product was extensively reviewed and edited via manual interpretation, and overall per-pixel accuracy of the final map was 96%. Although manual editing had only a marginal effect on accuracy despite requiring a majority of project effort, it maximized aesthetic quality and ensured the capture of small, isolated trees. Converting high-resolution LIDAR and imagery into usable information is a nontrivial exercise, requiring significant processing time and labor, but an expert system-based combination of OBIA and manual review was an effective method for fine-scale canopy mapping in a complex urban environment.

  7. Twitter data analysis: temporal and term frequency analysis with real-time event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Garima; Joshi, Mansi; Sasikala, R.

    2017-11-01

    From the past few years, World Wide Web (www) has become a prominent and huge source for user generated content and opinionative data. Among various social media, Twitter gained popularity as it offers a fast and effective way of sharing users’ perspective towards various critical and other issues in different domain. As the data is hugely generated on cloud, it has opened doors for the researchers in the field of data science and analysis. There are various domains such as ‘Political’ domain, ‘Entertainment’ domain and ‘Business’ domain. Also there are various APIs that Twitter provides for developers 1) Search API, focus on the old tweets 2) Rest API, focuses on user details and allow to collect the user profile, friends and followers 3) Streaming API, which collects details like tweets, hashtags, geo locations. In our work we are accessing Streaming API in order to fetch real-time tweets for the dynamic happening event. For this we are focusing on ‘Entertainment’ domain especially ‘Sports’ as IPL-T20 is currently the trending on-going event. We are collecting these numerous amounts of tweets and storing them in MongoDB database where the tweets are stored in JSON document format. On this document we are performing time-series analysis and term frequency analysis using different techniques such as filtering, information extraction for text-mining that fulfils our objective of finding interesting moments for temporal data in the event and finding the ranking among the players or the teams based on popularity which helps people in understanding key influencers on the social media platform.

  8. Species richness and resource availability: a phylogenetic analysis of insects associated with trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, C K; Southwood, T R

    1999-07-06

    The data on the number of species of insects associated with various trees in Britain have been reanalyzed to factor out possible bias from phylogenetic effects. It was found that tree availability (range and abundance) continues to provide a good predictor (r = 0. 852) of insect-species richness, slightly better than straightforward cross-species analyses. Of the two components of tree availability, tree abundance gives a much better prediction than tree range. The species richness on trees of major taxa with similar trophic habits (Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera/Symphyta and the two suborders of the Homoptera-Auchenorrhyncha and Sternorrhyncha) shows positive correlations; there is thus no evidence of competitive exclusion at this taxonomic level.

  9. Spatial and Temporal Considerations for Analysis of Single-Event Mechanisms in FinFET Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Spatial and Temporal Considerations for Analysis of Single-Event Mechanisms in FinFET Technologies Patrick Nsengiyumva, Lloyd W. Massengill...Abstract: This paper examines the sensitivity of single- event simulation results to spatial and temporal single- event model parameter values...represent the charge generated by an ion are based upon Gaussian spatial and temporal representations. The Gaussian model and basis for model parameter

  10. Event-based media processing and analysis: A survey of the literature

    OpenAIRE

    Tzelepis, Christos; Ma, Zhigang; MEZARIS, Vasileios; Ionescu, Bogdan; Kompatsiaris, Ioannis; Boato, Giulia; Sebe, Nicu; Yan, Shuicheng

    2016-01-01

    Research on event-based processing and analysis of media is receiving an increasing attention from the scientific community due to its relevance for an abundance of applications, from consumer video management and video surveillance to lifelogging and social media. Events have the ability to semantically encode relationships of different informational modalities, such as visual-audio-text, time, involved agents and objects, with the spatio-temporal component of events being a key feature for ...

  11. Assessing a Sport/Cultural Events Network: An Application of Social Network Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ziakas, V; Costa, CA

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the complexity of a sport/cultural events network. To that intent, a social network analysis was conducted in a small community in the US. The study had three main objectives: (1) Examine relationships among organisations involved in planning and implementing sport and cultural events based on their communication, exchange of resources, and assistance; (2) Identify the most important actors within the events network and their relationships; (3) Investig...

  12. [Analysis on the adverse events of cupping therapy in the application].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Ruan, Jing-wen; Xing, Bing-feng

    2014-10-01

    The deep analysis has been done on the cases of adverse events and common injury of cupping therapy encountered in recent years in terms of manipulation and patient's constitution. The adverse events of cupping therapy are commonly caused by improper manipulation of medical practitioners, ignoring contraindication and patient's constitution. Clinical practitioners should use cupping therapy cautiously, follow strictly the rules of standard manipulation and medical core system, pay attention to the contraindication and take strict precautions against the occurrence of adverse events.

  13. Survival analysis of a critical resource for cavity-nesting communities: patterns of tree cavity longevity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edworthy, Amanda B; Wiebe, Karen L; Martin, Kathy

    2012-09-01

    Tree cavities are a vital multi-annual resource used by cavity-nesting birds and mammals for nesting and shelter. The abundance of this resource will be influenced by the rates at which cavities are created and destroyed. We applied the demographic concepts of survival and longevity to populations of tree holes to investigate rates of loss for cavities in three tree species, as well as how characteristics of nest trees, habitat type, and species of excavator affected the persistence of tree cavities in trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides (95% of cavities were in aspen trees), in interior British Columbia, Canada. By modeling survival of 1635 nesting cavities in aspen over a time span of 16 years, we found that the decay stage of the nest tree was the most important factor determining cavity longevity. Cavities in trees with advanced decay had a relatively short median longevity of 7 years (95% CI 6-9 years), whereas those in living trees had a median longevity of more than 15 years. We found that cavity longevity was greater in continuous forest than in aspen grove habitat. Interestingly, cavities formed by weak excavators survived as long as those created by Northern Flickers (Colaptes auratus), despite occurring in more decayed tree stems. Thus, weak excavators may be selecting for characteristics that make a tree persistent, such as a broken top. Our results indicate that retention of cavities in large, live aspen trees is necessary to conserve persistent cavities, and that cavity longevity will have a large effect on the structure and function of cavity-using vertebrate communities.

  14. Genome-Wide Analysis of Polyadenylation Events in Schmidtea mediterranea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vairavan Lakshmanan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In eukaryotes, 3′ untranslated regions (UTRs play important roles in regulating posttranscriptional gene expression. The 3′UTR is defined by regulated cleavage/polyadenylation of the pre-mRNA. The advent of next-generation sequencing technology has now enabled us to identify these events on a genome-wide scale. In this study, we used poly(A-position profiling by sequencing (3P-Seq to capture all poly(A sites across the genome of the freshwater planarian, Schmidtea mediterranea, an ideal model system for exploring the process of regeneration and stem cell function. We identified the 3′UTRs for ∼14,000 transcripts and thus improved the existing gene annotations. We found 97 transcripts, which are polyadenylated within an internal exon, resulting in the shrinking of the ORF and loss of a predicted protein domain. Around 40% of the transcripts in planaria were alternatively polyadenylated (ApA, resulting either in an altered 3′UTR or a change in coding sequence. We identified specific ApA transcript isoforms that were subjected to miRNA mediated gene regulation using degradome sequencing. In this study, we also confirmed a tissue-specific expression pattern for alternate polyadenylated transcripts. The insights from this study highlight the potential role of ApA in regulating the gene expression essential for planarian regeneration.

  15. Genome-Wide Analysis of Polyadenylation Events in Schmidtea mediterranea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakshmanan, Vairavan; Bansal, Dhiru; Kulkarni, Jahnavi; Poduval, Deepak; Krishna, Srikar; Sasidharan, Vidyanand; Anand, Praveen; Seshasayee, Aswin; Palakodeti, Dasaradhi

    2016-10-13

    In eukaryotes, 3' untranslated regions (UTRs) play important roles in regulating posttranscriptional gene expression. The 3'UTR is defined by regulated cleavage/polyadenylation of the pre-mRNA. The advent of next-generation sequencing technology has now enabled us to identify these events on a genome-wide scale. In this study, we used poly(A)-position profiling by sequencing (3P-Seq) to capture all poly(A) sites across the genome of the freshwater planarian, Schmidtea mediterranea, an ideal model system for exploring the process of regeneration and stem cell function. We identified the 3'UTRs for ∼14,000 transcripts and thus improved the existing gene annotations. We found 97 transcripts, which are polyadenylated within an internal exon, resulting in the shrinking of the ORF and loss of a predicted protein domain. Around 40% of the transcripts in planaria were alternatively polyadenylated (ApA), resulting either in an altered 3'UTR or a change in coding sequence. We identified specific ApA transcript isoforms that were subjected to miRNA mediated gene regulation using degradome sequencing. In this study, we also confirmed a tissue-specific expression pattern for alternate polyadenylated transcripts. The insights from this study highlight the potential role of ApA in regulating the gene expression essential for planarian regeneration. Copyright © 2016 Lakshmanan et al.

  16. Optimization and analysis of decision trees and rules: Dynamic programming approach

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz

    2013-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the consideration of software system Dagger created in KAUST. This system is based on extensions of dynamic programming. It allows sequential optimization of decision trees and rules relative to different cost functions, derivation of relationships between two cost functions (in particular, between number of misclassifications and depth of decision trees), and between cost and uncertainty of decision trees. We describe features of Dagger and consider examples of this systems work on decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. We also use Dagger to compare 16 different greedy algorithms for decision tree construction. © 2013 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  17. Optimization and analysis of decision trees and rules: dynamic programming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz; Amin, Talha; Chikalov, Igor; Hussain, Shahid; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

    2013-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the consideration of software system Dagger created in KAUST. This system is based on extensions of dynamic programming. It allows sequential optimization of decision trees and rules relative to different cost functions, derivation of relationships between two cost functions (in particular, between number of misclassifications and depth of decision trees), and between cost and uncertainty of decision trees. We describe features of Dagger and consider examples of this system's work on decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. We also use Dagger to compare 16 different greedy algorithms for decision tree construction.

  18. [Spectrum Variance Analysis of Tree Leaves Under the Condition of Different Leaf water Content].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Chen, Tai-sheng; Pan, Li-xin

    2015-07-01

    Leaf water content is an important factor affecting tree spectral characteristics. So Exploring the leaf spectral characteristics change rule of the same tree under the condition of different leaf water content and the spectral differences of different tree leaves under the condition of the same leaf water content are not only the keys of hyperspectral vegetation remote sensing information identification but also the theoretical support of research on vegetation spectrum change as the differences in leaf water content. The spectrometer was used to observe six species of tree leaves, and the reflectivity and first order differential spectrum of different leaf water content were obtained. Then, the spectral characteristics of each tree species leaves under the condition of different leaf water content were analyzed, and the spectral differences of different tree species leaves under the condition of the same leaf water content were compared to explore possible bands of the leaf water content identification by hyperspectral remote sensing. Results show that the spectra of each tree leaf have changed a lot with the change of the leaf water content, but the change laws are different. Leaf spectral of different tree species has lager differences in some wavelength range under the condition of same leaf water content, and it provides some possibility for high precision identification of tree species.

  19. Cognitive tasks in information analysis: Use of event dwell time to characterize component activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanquist, Thomas F.; Greitzer, Frank L.; Slavich, Antoinette L.; Littlefield, Rik J.; Littlefield, Janis S.; Cowley, Paula J.

    2004-09-28

    Technology-based enhancement of information analysis requires a detailed understanding of the cognitive tasks involved in the process. The information search and report production tasks of the information analysis process were investigated through evaluation of time-stamped workstation data gathered with custom software. Model tasks simulated the search and production activities, and a sample of actual analyst data were also evaluated. Task event durations were calculated on the basis of millisecond-level time stamps, and distributions were plotted for analysis. The data indicate that task event time shows a cyclic pattern of variation, with shorter event durations (< 2 sec) reflecting information search and filtering, and longer event durations (> 10 sec) reflecting information evaluation. Application of cognitive principles to the interpretation of task event time data provides a basis for developing “cognitive signatures” of complex activities, and can facilitate the development of technology aids for information intensive tasks.

  20. Stochastic Analysis of Rainfall Events in Ilorin, Nigeria | Ogunlela ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... lognormal, logPearson typeIII exponential and extreme value type I distributions – were used in this study because of their desirable properties. The analysis was based on 41 years of daily and monthly rainfall data (1955-1995) for Ilorin, with peak values computed for each year.Weibull plotting positions and the number ...

  1. Statistical analysis of geodetic networks for detecting regional events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granat, Robert

    2004-01-01

    We present an application of hidden Markov models (HMMs) to analysis of geodetic time series in Southern California. Our model fitting method uses a regularized version of the deterministic annealing expectation-maximization algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust and of high quality.

  2. The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydon, D T; Chase-Topping, M; Shaw, D J; Matthews, L; Friar, J K; Wilesmith, J; Woolhouse, M E J

    2003-01-22

    The case-reproduction ratio for the spread of an infectious disease is a critically important concept for understanding dynamics of epidemics and for evaluating impact of control measures on spread of infection. Reliable estimation of this ratio is a problem central to epidemiology and is most often accomplished by fitting dynamic models to data and estimating combinations of parameters that equate to the case-reproduction ratio. Here, we develop a novel parameter-free method that permits direct estimation of the history of transmission events recoverable from detailed observation of a particular epidemic. From these reconstructed 'epidemic trees', case-reproduction ratios can be estimated directly. We develop a bootstrap algorithm that generates percentile intervals for these estimates that shows the procedure to be both precise and robust to possible uncertainties in the historical reconstruction. Identifying and 'pruning' branches from these trees whose occurrence might have been prevented by implementation of more stringent control measures permits estimation of the possible efficacy of these alternative measures. Examination of the cladistic structure of these trees as a function of the distance of each case from its infection source reveals useful insights about the relationship between long-distance transmission events and epidemic size. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by applying them to data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK.

  3. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Fault Trees as Tools in Improving the Delineation of Wellhead Protection Areas: An Initial Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.

    2010-12-01

    Delineation of a wellhead protection area (WHPA) is a critical component of managing / protecting the aquifer(s) supplying potable water to a public water-supply well. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for assessing WHPAs in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health risk within the receiving population are more limited. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) addresses this latter challenge by providing a structure whereby four key WHPA issues may be addressed: (i) uncertainty in land-use practices and chemical release, (ii) uncertainty in groundwater flow, (iii) variability in natural attenuation properties (and/or remediation) of the contaminants, and (iv) estimated health risk from contaminant arrival at a well. The potential utility of PRA-FT in this application is considered through a simplified case study involving management decisions related both to regional land use planning and local land-use zoning regulation. An application-specific fault tree is constructed to visualize and identify the events required for health risk failure at the well and a Monte Carlo approach is used to create multiple realizations of groundwater flow and chemical transport to a well in a model of a simple, unconfined aquifer. Model parameters allowed to vary during this simplified case study include hydraulic conductivity, probability of a chemical spill (related to land use variation in space), and natural attenuation through variation in rate of decay of the contaminant. Numerical results are interpreted in association with multiple land-use management scenarios as well as multiple cancer risk assumptions regarding the contaminant arriving at the well. This case study shows significant variability of health risk at the well, however general trends were

  4. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  5. A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

  6. Functional analysis for gut microbes of the brown tree frog (Polypedates megacephalus) in artificial hibernation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Francis Cheng-Hsuan; Yang, Yi-Ju; Wang, Daryi

    2016-12-22

    Annual hibernation is an adaptation that helps many animals conserve energy during food shortage in winter. This natural cycle is also accompanied by a remodeling of the intestinal immune system, which is an aspect of host biology that is both influenced by, and can itself influence, the microbiota. In amphibians, the bacteria in the intestinal tract show a drop in bacterial counts. The proportion of pathogenic bacteria is greater in hibernating frogs than that found in nonhibernating frogs. This suggests that some intestinal gut microbes in amphibians can be maintained and may contribute to the functions in this closed ecosystem during hibernation. However, these results were derived from culture-based approaches that only covered a small portion of bacteria in the intestinal tract. In this study, we use a more comprehensive analysis, including bacterial appearance and functional prediction, to reveal the global changes in gut microbiota during artificial hibernation via high-throughput sequencing technology. Our results suggest that artificial hibernation in the brown tree frog (Polypedates megacephalus) could reduce microbial diversity, and artificially hibernating frogs tend to harbor core operational taxonomic units that are rarely distributed among nonhibernating frogs. In addition, artificial hibernation increased significantly the relative abundance of the red-leg syndrome-related pathogenic genus Citrobacter. Furthermore, functional predictions via PICRUSt and Tax4Fun suggested that artificial hibernation has effects on metabolism, disease, signal transduction, bacterial infection, and primary immunodeficiency. We infer that artificial hibernation may impose potential effects on primary immunodeficiency and increase the risk of bacterial infections in the brown tree frog.

  7. An analysis of fog events at Belgrade International Airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, Katarina; Vujović, Dragana; Lazić, Lazar; Vučković, Vladan

    2015-01-01

    A preliminary study of the occurrence of fog at Belgrade "Nikola Tesla" Airport was carried out using a statistical approach. The highest frequency of fog has occurred in the winter months of December and January and far exceeded the number of fog days in the spring and the beginning of autumn. The exceptionally foggy months, those having an extreme number of foggy days, occurred in January 1989 (18 days), December 1998 (18 days), February 2005 (17 days) and October 2001 (15 days). During the winter months (December, January and February) from 1990 to 2005 (16 years), fog occurred most frequently between 0600 and 1000 hours, and in the autumn, between 0500 and 0800 hours. In summer, fog occurred most frequently between 0300 and 0600 hours. During the 11-year period from 1995 to 2005, it was found that there was a 13 % chance for fog to occur on two consecutive days and a 5 % chance that it would occur 3 days in a row. In October 2001, the fog was observed over nine consecutive days. During the winter half year, 52.3 % of fog events observed at 0700 hours were in the presence of stratus clouds and 41.4 % were without the presence of low clouds. The 6-h cooling observed at the surface preceding the occurrence of fog between 0000 and 0700 hours ranged mainly from 1 to 4 °C. A new method was applied to assess the probability of fog occurrence based on complex fog criteria. It was found that the highest probability of fog occurrence (51.2 %) takes place in the cases in which the relative humidity is above 97 %, the dew-point depression is 0 °C, the cloud base is lower than 50 m and the wind is calm or weak 1 h before the onset of fog.

  8. [Intraoperative adverse events in minor oral surgery. Risk analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, W; Maurer, P; Schubert, J

    2005-11-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate oral surgical procedures performed as day surgery under local anesthesia. We examined patients' general condition, and besides checking for intraoperative complications we analyzed postoperative bleeding in patients with hemostatic disorders. The patient population consisted of 1540 patients (797 female, 743 male), who underwent a total of 2055 minor oral surgical procedures over a 5-year period (1998-2002). Before the treatment started a data file was made for each patient, which contained information on his or her past medical history, concomitant medication, why the operation was indicated, premedication, anesthetic and surgical techniques applied, and postoperative treatment. Systemic pathologies influencing surgical decisions were found in 316 patients (20.5%), affecting 676 interventions (32.9%). In 109 patients (5.3% of the 2055) altered hemostasis was found. The surgical procedures recorded were: (operative) tooth extraction (n=394), interventions for surgical conservation of teeth (n=272), treatment for cysts (n=140), surgical revisions (n=46) and preprosthetic surgery (n=19). Passing complications, mostly systemic in nature, occurred during 27 sessions of local anesthesia (1.3%). There were 87 adverse events intraoperatively (4,2%), most of which were confined to the surgical field; specifically 15% of these complications took the form of hemorrhage. We observed no significant correlation between the occurrence of intraoperative complications and patients' gender, predisposing systemic pathologies including bleeding disorders, or age. Postoperative hemorrhage was observed significantly more frequently in patients with impaired hemostasis and required admission to hospital for inpatient treatment in 2 cases. According to our investigation, oral surgery can be performed in patients with compromised general condition with as few intraoperative complications as in patients with no general medical problems

  9. Artificial neural networks and decision tree model analysis of liver cancer proteomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luk, John M; Lam, Brian Y; Lee, Nikki P Y; Ho, David W; Sham, Pak C; Chen, Lei; Peng, Jirun; Leng, Xisheng; Day, Philip J; Fan, Sheung-Tat

    2007-09-14

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a heterogeneous cancer and usually diagnosed at late advanced tumor stages of high lethality. The present study attempted to obtain a proteome-wide analysis of HCC in comparison with adjacent non-tumor liver tissues, in order to facilitate biomarkers' discovery and to investigate the mechanisms of HCC development. A cohort of 66 Chinese patients with HCC was included for proteomic profiling study by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) analysis. Artificial neural network (ANN) and decision tree (CART) data-mining methods were employed to analyze the profiling data and to delineate significant patterns and trends for discriminating HCC from non-malignant liver tissues. Protein markers were identified by tandem MS/MS. A total of 132 proteome datasets were generated by 2-DE expression profiling analysis, and each with 230 consolidated protein expression intensities. Both the data-mining algorithms successfully distinguished the HCC phenotype from other non-malignant liver samples. The detection sensitivity and specificity of ANN were 96.97% and 87.88%, while those of CART were 81.82% and 78.79%, respectively. The three biological classifiers in the CART model were identified as cytochrome b5, heat shock 70 kDa protein 8 isoform 2, and cathepsin B. The 2-DE-based proteomic profiling approach combined with the ANN or CART algorithm yielded satisfactory performance on identifying HCC and revealed potential candidate cancer biomarkers.

  10. A general framework for association analysis of microbial communities on a taxonomic tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zheng-Zheng; Chen, Guanhua; Alekseyenko, Alexander V; Li, Hongzhe

    2017-05-01

    : Association analysis of microbiome composition with disease-related outcomes provides invaluable knowledge towards understanding the roles of microbes in the underlying disease mechanisms. Proper analysis of sparse compositional microbiome data is challenging. Existing methods rely on strong assumptions on the data structure and fail to pinpoint the associated microbial communities. : We develop a general framework to: (i) perform robust association tests for the microbial community that exhibits arbitrary inter-taxa dependencies; (ii) localize lineages on the taxonomic tree that are associated with covariates (e.g. disease status); and (iii) assess the overall association of the whole microbial community with the covariates. Unlike existing methods for microbiome association analysis, our framework does not make any distributional assumptions on the microbiome data; it allows for the adjustment of confounding variables and accommodates excessive zero observations; and it incorporates taxonomic information. We perform extensive simulation studies under a wide-range of scenarios to evaluate the new methods and demonstrate substantial power gain over existing methods. The advantages of the proposed framework are further demonstrated with real datasets from two microbiome studies. The relevant R package miLineage is publicly available. : miLineage package, manual and tutorial are available at https://medschool.vanderbilt.edu/tang-lab/software/miLineage . z.tang@vanderbilt.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  11. Automated Detection of Connective Tissue by Tissue Counter Analysis and Classification and Regression Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Smolle

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of the CART (Classification and Regression Tree procedure for the recognition of microscopic structures in tissue counter analysis. Methods: Digital microscopic images of H&E stained slides of normal human skin and of primary malignant melanoma were overlayed with regularly distributed square measuring masks (elements and grey value, texture and colour features within each mask were recorded. In the learning set, elements were interactively labeled as representing either connective tissue of the reticular dermis, other tissue components or background. Subsequently, CART models were based on these data sets. Results: Implementation of the CART classification rules into the image analysis program showed that in an independent test set 94.1% of elements classified as connective tissue of the reticular dermis were correctly labeled. Automated measurements of the total amount of tissue and of the amount of connective tissue within a slide showed high reproducibility (r=0.97 and r=0.94, respectively; p < 0.001. Conclusions: CART procedure in tissue counter analysis yields simple and reproducible classification rules for tissue elements.

  12. Identification of Sexually Abused Female Adolescents at Risk for Suicidal Ideations: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabant, Marie-Eve; Hebert, Martine; Chagnon, Francois

    2013-01-01

    This study explored the clinical profiles of 77 female teenager survivors of sexual abuse and examined the association of abuse-related and personal variables with suicidal ideations. Analyses revealed that 64% of participants experienced suicidal ideations. Findings from classification and regression tree analysis indicated that depression,…

  13. What Satisfies Students? Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision-Tree Analysis. AIR 2002 Forum Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study used regression and decision-tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student opinion data from a sample of 1,783 college students. A data-mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three…

  14. Analysis of the growth characteristics of a 450-year-old silver fir tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pantić Damjan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth characteristics of silver fir are of high importance for selection forest management, and for the current aims laid out in Serbia’s forest management focused on increasing the share of silver firs in Serbia’s growing stock. With the objective of increasing the understanding of the growth characteristics of silver fir, the growth of two silver fir trees felled during forest site production research on Mt. Goč, located in Central Serbia, have been analyzed. Both trees showed significant differences in their growth dynamics over long periods as results of micro-site and micro-stand effects (primarily ambient light regime. The common growth characteristic of the two trees, a 450-year-old tree as the main study object (labeled Tree A and a 270-year-old Tree B is a long stagnation stage. For Tree A the latent phase, with small interruptions, lasted 410 years; one phase lasted 330 years in continuity, which is the longest period of silver fir stagnation recorded in Europe. Tree B showed a long-lasting stagnation stage that lasted 170 years. The long stagnation stage of Tree A, characterized by an average diameter increment of 1.4 mm/year (average growth ring width of 0.7 mm and an average height increment of 0.08 m/year, shows the extraordinary silver fir capacity for physiological survival in complete shade. This study adds to the existing knowledge of the shade tolerance of the silver fir. Therefore, the silver fir belongs to the group of extremely shade-tolerant tree species. This characteristic makes silver fir an irreplaceable tree species in the selection forest structure. It offers a wide range of silvicultural flexibility in the management of these forests, and is applicable to silver fir selection Serbia’s forests. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. EVBR 37008: Sustainable management of total forest potentials in the Republic of Serbia

  15. Effect of tree nuts on metabolic syndrome criteria: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

    OpenAIRE

    Blanco Mejia, Sonia; Kendall, Cyril W. C.; Viguiliouk, Effie; Augustin, Livia S; Ha, Vanessa; Cozma, Adrian I.; Mirrahimi, Arash; Maroleanu, Adriana; Chiavaroli, Laura; Leiter, Lawrence A; de Souza, Russell J.; Jenkins, David J.A.; John L Sievenpiper

    2014-01-01

    Objective To provide a broader evidence summary to inform dietary guidelines of the effect of tree nuts on criteria of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Design We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of tree nuts on criteria of the MetS. Data sources We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library (through 4 April 2014). Eligibility criteria for selecting studies We included relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of ≥3 weeks reporting at least one crit...

  16. The Strong Wind event of 24th January 2009 in Catalonia: a social impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro, J.; Aran, M.; Barberia, L.; Llasat, M. C.

    2009-09-01

    Although strong winds are frequent in Catalonia, one of the events with the strongest impact in recent years was on January 24th 2009. An explosive cyclogenesis process took place in the Atlantic: pressure fell 30 hPa in less than 24 hours. The strong wind storm pounded the northern of Spain and the south of France with some fatalities and important economic losses in these regions. Several automatic weather stations recorded wind gusts higher than 100 km/h in Catalonia. Emergency services received more than 20.000 calls in 24 hours and there were 497 interventions in only 12 hours. As a consequence of fallen and uprooted trees railway and road infrastructures got damages and more than 30.000 customers had no electricity during 24 hours. Unfortunately there were a total of 6 fatalities, two of them because of fallen trees and the other ones when a sports centre collapsed over a group of children. In Spain, insurance policies cover damages due to strong winds when fixed thresholds are overcome and, according to the Royal Decree 300/2004 of 20th February, extraordinary risk are assumed by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros. Subsequently, Public Weather Services (PWS) had an increased on the number of requests received from people affected by this event and from insurance companies, for the corresponding indemnity or not. As an example, during the first month after the event, in the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya (SMC) more than 600 requests were received only related to these damages (as an average PWS of SMC received a total of 400 requests per month). Following the research started by the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX project, a good vulnerability indicator of a meteorological risk can be the number of requests reported. This study uses the information received in the PWS of the SMC during the six months after the event, according the criteria and methodology established in Gayà et al (2008). The objective is to compare the vulnerability with the

  17. The Impact of Tree Diversity on Different Aspects of Insect Herbivory along a Global Temperature Gradient - A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambach, Stephan; Kühn, Ingolf; Castagneyrol, Bastien; Bruelheide, Helge

    2016-01-01

    Forests with higher tree diversity are often assumed to be more resistant to insect herbivores but whether this effect depends on climatic conditions is so far poorly understood. In particular, a forest's resistance to herbivory may depend on mean annual temperature (MAT) as a key driver of plant and insect phenology. We carried out a global meta-analysis on regression coefficients between tree diversity and four aspects of insect herbivory, namely herbivore damage, abundance, incidence rate and species richness. To test for a potential shift of tree diversity effects along a global gradient of MAT we applied mixed-effects models and estimated grand mean effect sizes and the influence of MAT, experimental vs. observational studies and herbivores diet breadth. There was no overall effect of tree diversity on the pooled effect sizes of insect herbivore damage, abundance and incidence rate. However, when analysed separately, we found positive grand mean effect sizes for herbivore abundance and species richness. For herbivore damage and incidence rate we found a significant but opposing shift along a gradient of MAT indicating that with increasing MAT diversity effects on herbivore damage tend towards associational resistance whereas diversity effects on incidence rates tend towards associational susceptibility. Our results contradict previous meta-analyses reporting overall associational resistance to insect herbivores in mixed forests. Instead, we report that tree diversity effects on insect herbivores can follow a biogeographic pattern calling for further in-depth studies in this field.

  18. The Impact of Tree Diversity on Different Aspects of Insect Herbivory along a Global Temperature Gradient - A Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Kambach

    Full Text Available Forests with higher tree diversity are often assumed to be more resistant to insect herbivores but whether this effect depends on climatic conditions is so far poorly understood. In particular, a forest's resistance to herbivory may depend on mean annual temperature (MAT as a key driver of plant and insect phenology. We carried out a global meta-analysis on regression coefficients between tree diversity and four aspects of insect herbivory, namely herbivore damage, abundance, incidence rate and species richness. To test for a potential shift of tree diversity effects along a global gradient of MAT we applied mixed-effects models and estimated grand mean effect sizes and the influence of MAT, experimental vs. observational studies and herbivores diet breadth. There was no overall effect of tree diversity on the pooled effect sizes of insect herbivore damage, abundance and incidence rate. However, when analysed separately, we found positive grand mean effect sizes for herbivore abundance and species richness. For herbivore damage and incidence rate we found a significant but opposing shift along a gradient of MAT indicating that with increasing MAT diversity effects on herbivore damage tend towards associational resistance whereas diversity effects on incidence rates tend towards associational susceptibility. Our results contradict previous meta-analyses reporting overall associational resistance to insect herbivores in mixed forests. Instead, we report that tree diversity effects on insect herbivores can follow a biogeographic pattern calling for further in-depth studies in this field.

  19. Entropy-based texture analysis and feature extraction of urban street trees in the spatial frequency domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Haohao; Feng, Xuezhi; Chen, Yan; Zhao, Shuhe; Xiao, Pengfeng

    2009-10-01

    A method of texture analysis and feature extraction of urban street trees in spatial frequency domain is described in this paper. The QUICKBIRD image of Nanjing acquired in July, 2007 was considered. The image was first transformed by 2-D discrete Fourier transform. Then the energy of the component in spatial frequency was calculated. Entropy in a region of 7x7 window was considered to evaluate the energy distribution of the image. A Gabor filter was designed to extract texture features of street trees by using the radius and angel information of the entropy image. The precision of the segmentation result is 79.96%. Odd Gabor filter was designed to detect the edge of street trees, and the experimental result is excellent.

  20. Weighted symbolic analysis of human behavior for event detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosani, A.; Boato, G.; De Natale, F. G. B.

    2013-03-01

    Automatic video analysis and understanding has become a high interest research topic, with applications to video browsing, content-based video indexing, and visual surveillance. However, the automation of this process is still a challenging task, due to clutters produced by low-level processing operations. This common problem can be solved by embedding signi cant contextual information into the data, as well as using simple syntactic approaches to perform the matching between actual sequences and models. In this context we propose a novel framework that employs a symbolic representation of complex activities through sequences of atomic actions based on a weighted Context-Free Grammar.

  1. ALFA detector, Background removal and analysis for elastic events

    CERN Document Server

    Belaloui, Nazim

    2017-01-01

    I worked on the ALFA project, which has the aim to measure the total cross section in PP collisions as a function of t, the momentum transfer by measuring the scattering angle of the protons. This measurement is done for all available energies; so far 7, 8 and 13 TeV. There are many analysis steps and we have focused on enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio. First of all I tried to be more familiar with ROOT, worked on understanding the code used to access to the data, plotting histograms, then cutting-off background.

  2. Tree-ring analysis of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) in central India and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tree-ring-width index chronologies of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from three sites in central India have been studied for their ... that the teak tree-ring chronologies can be used as high resolution proxy for past precipitation and moisture level in the ..... 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming ...

  3. West Coast tree improvement programs: a break-even, cost-benefit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Thomas Ledig; Richard L Porterfield

    1981-01-01

    Three tree improvement programs were analyzed by break-even, cost-benefit technique: one for ponderosa pine in the Pacific Northwest, and two for Douglas-fir in the Pacific Northwest-one of low intensity and the other of high intensity. A return of 8 percent on investment appears feasible by using short rotations or by accompanying tree improvement with thinning....

  4. The analysis of terminal endpoint events in stepped wedge designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Zhuozhao; de Bock, Geertruida H; Wiggers, Theo; van den Heuvel, Edwin

    2016-10-30

    The stepped wedge design is a unique clinical trial design that allows for a sequential introduction of an intervention. However, the statistical analysis is unclear when this design is applied in survival data. The time-dependent introduction of the intervention in combination with terminal endpoints and interval censoring makes the analysis more complicated. In this paper, a time-on-study scale discrete survival model was constructed. Simulations were conducted primarily to study the performance of our model for different settings of the stepped wedge design. Secondary, we compared our approach to continuous Cox proportional hazard model. The results show that the discrete survival model estimates the intervention effects unbiasedly. If the length of the censoring interval is increased, the precision of the estimates is decreased. Without left truncation and late entry, the number of steps improves the precision of the estimates, whereas in combination of left truncation and late entry, the number of steps decreases the precision. Given the same number of participants and clusters, a parallel group design has higher precision than a stepped wedge design. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Mixed Methods Analysis of Medical Error Event Reports: A Report from the ASIPS Collaborative

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Harris, Daniel M; Westfall, John M; Fernald, Douglas H; Duclos, Christine W; West, David R; Niebauer, Linda; Marr, Linda; Quintela, Javan; Main, Deborah S

    2005-01-01

    .... This paper presents a mixed methods approach to analyzing narrative error event reports. Mixed methods studies integrate one or more qualitative and quantitative techniques for data collection and analysis...

  6. Twelve Tips for Promoting Significant Event Analysis To Enhance Reflection in Undergraduate Medical Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Emma; Berlin, Anita; Freeman, George; Fuller, Jon

    2002-01-01

    Points out the importance of the facilitation of reflection and development of reflective abilities in professional development and describes 12 tips for undergraduate medical students to increase their abilities of writing reflective and creative event analysis. (Author/YDS)

  7. Bi-Criteria Optimization of Decision Trees with Applications to Data Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2017-10-19

    This paper is devoted to the study of bi-criteria optimization problems for decision trees. We consider different cost functions such as depth, average depth, and number of nodes. We design algorithms that allow us to construct the set of Pareto optimal points (POPs) for a given decision table and the corresponding bi-criteria optimization problem. These algorithms are suitable for investigation of medium-sized decision tables. We discuss three examples of applications of the created tools: the study of relationships among depth, average depth and number of nodes for decision trees for corner point detection (such trees are used in computer vision for object tracking), study of systems of decision rules derived from decision trees, and comparison of different greedy algorithms for decision tree construction as single- and bi-criteria optimization algorithms.

  8. Estimation of Tree Size Diversity Using Object Oriented Texture Analysis and Aster Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozdemir Senturk

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the potential of object-based texture parameters extracted from 15m spatial resolution ASTER imagery for estimating tree size diversity in a Mediterranean forested landscape in Turkey. Tree size diversity based on tree basal area was determined using the Shannon index and Gini Coefficient at the sampling plot level. Image texture parameters were calculated based on the grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM for various image segmentation levels. Analyses of relationships between tree size diversity and texture parameters found that relationships between the Gini Coefficient and the GLCM values were the most statistically significant, with the highest correlation (r=0.69 being with GLCM Homogeneity values. In contrast, Shannon Index values were weakly correlated with image derived texture parameters. The results suggest that 15m resolution Aster imagery has considerable potential in estimating tree size diversity based on the Gini Coefficient for heterogeneous Mediterranean forests.

  9. Spatial pattern analysis and demography of two tropical trees in the Brazilian Caatinga

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maira Fontes Manzan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Aspidosperma pyrifolium (Apocynaceae and Caesalpinia pyramidalis (Fabaceae share the same habitat in the Brazilian Caatinga domain. In this paper, we investigate the intra and inter-species interactions between these two plants using spatial pattern analysis among cohorts. The results showed that the adult trees of each species present higher densities at distances shorter than 9 m to 12 m. However, due to seed dispersal via autochory, we expected a more aggregate density for C. pyramidalis than A. pyrifolium as the later disperses seeds through anemochory. Difference in spatial aggregation among cohorts was not observed and therefore the results contradict the expectations of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. It is likely that this is associated with anthropogenic factors in the past such as fire, animal husbandry and logging. Using a bivariate analysis of the neighborhood density, we also confirmed the significant coexistence between the two species. This coexistence could be explained by the process of positive interspecific interactions, such as facilitation, which is common in semi-arid regions under stressful conditions.

  10. Bayesian Analysis for Dynamic Generalized Linear Latent Model with Application to Tree Survival Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-sheng Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression model is the most popular regression technique, available for modeling categorical data especially for dichotomous variables. Classic logistic regression model is typically used to interpret relationship between response variables and explanatory variables. However, in real applications, most data sets are collected in follow-up, which leads to the temporal correlation among the data. In order to characterize the different variables correlations, a new method about the latent variables is introduced in this study. At the same time, the latent variables about AR (1 model are used to depict time dependence. In the framework of Bayesian analysis, parameters estimates and statistical inferences are carried out via Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings (MH algorithm. Model comparison, based on the Bayes factor, and forecasting/smoothing of the survival rate of the tree are established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method and a pika data set is analyzed to illustrate the real application. Since Bayes factor approaches vary significantly, efficiency tests have been performed in order to decide which solution provides a better tool for the analysis of real relational data sets.

  11. [A prediction model for internet game addiction in adolescents: using a decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ki Sook; Kim, Kyung Hee

    2010-06-01

    This study was designed to build a theoretical frame to provide practical help to prevent and manage adolescent internet game addiction by developing a prediction model through a comprehensive analysis of related factors. The participants were 1,318 students studying in elementary, middle, and high schools in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, Korea. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSS program. Decision Tree Analysis using the Clementine program was applied to build an optimum and significant prediction model to predict internet game addiction related to various factors, especially parent related factors. From the data analyses, the prediction model for factors related to internet game addiction presented with 5 pathways. Causative factors included gender, type of school, siblings, economic status, religion, time spent alone, gaming place, payment to Internet café, frequency, duration, parent's ability to use internet, occupation (mother), trust (father), expectations regarding adolescent's study (mother), supervising (both parents), rearing attitude (both parents). The results suggest preventive and managerial nursing programs for specific groups by path. Use of this predictive model can expand the role of school nurses, not only in counseling addicted adolescents but also, in developing and carrying out programs with parents and approaching adolescents individually through databases and computer programming.

  12. Analysis of the Discourse of Power in Etel Adnan's Play Like A Christmas Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam Mahmoud Alashqar

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to investigate the sources of power in the discourse of an Arab-American writer, Etel Adnan's one act play, Like a Christmas Tree. The play represents a heated argument between two figures who stand for two different ideologies and who fall within the frame of 'binary opposition', transcultural misunderstanding, and colonial hegemony versus native resistance. Supposedly, an American Journalist, Jim, is expected to dominate the discourse by force of his cultural and professional background, but sarcastically enough, the Iraqi butcher, Badr is the part who represents power and domination throughout the play. The current paper depends on more than one tool of analysis: Norman Fairclough's (2001 and Foucault's(2004 concepts of power and discourse, Grice's theory of 'cooperative principles'(1989, Brown and Gilman's study of 'address forms' (1972, and Georgia Green's contribution in the process of 'turn-taking' (1989.The study celebrates an analysis of data which uncovers the power of discourse in the exchanges of both characters and sheds light on the identity of both of them in an attempt to affirm that 'power' is not necessarily on the side of the stronger. Keywords: discourse, power, address forms, turn-taking, interruption, topic control

  13. A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Andrew; Li, Bin; Marx, Brian D; Mills, Jacqueline W; Pine, John

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health-related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R-squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long-term health challenges facing this population. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  14. A Specification Patterns System for Discrete Event Systems Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Creissac Campos

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available As formal verification tools gain popularity, the problem arises of making them more accessible to engineers. A correct understanding of the logics used to express the properties of a system's behaviour is needed in order to guarantee that properties correctly encode the intent of the verification process. Writing appropriate properties, in a logic suitable for verification, is a skilful process. Errors in this step of the process can create serious problems since a false sense of safety is gained from the analysis. However, when compared to the effort put into developing and applying modelling languages, little attention has been devoted to the process of writing properties that accurately capture verification requirements. In this paper we illustrate how a collection of property patterns can help in simplifying the process of generating logical formulae from informally expressed requirements.

  15. Using inventory data to determine the impact of drought on tree mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Charles H. Perry

    2012-01-01

    Drought has been the subject of numerous recent studies that hint at an acceleration of tree mortality due to climate change. In particular, a recent global survey of tree mortality events implicates drought as the cause of quaking aspen mortality in Minnesota, USA in 2007. In this study, data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the USDA Forest Service...

  16. Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel

    2017-10-01

    Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

  17. Explicit area-based accuracy assessment for mangrove tree crown delineation using Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, Muhammad; Johansen, Kasper

    2017-10-01

    Effective mangrove management requires spatially explicit information of mangrove tree crown map as a basis for ecosystem diversity study and health assessment. Accuracy assessment is an integral part of any mapping activities to measure the effectiveness of the classification approach. In geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) the assessment of the geometric accuracy (shape, symmetry and location) of the created image objects from image segmentation is required. In this study we used an explicit area-based accuracy assessment to measure the degree of similarity between the results of the classification and reference data from different aspects, including overall quality (OQ), user's accuracy (UA), producer's accuracy (PA) and overall accuracy (OA). We developed a rule set to delineate the mangrove tree crown using WorldView-2 pan-sharpened image. The reference map was obtained by visual delineation of the mangrove tree crowns boundaries form a very high-spatial resolution aerial photograph (7.5cm pixel size). Ten random points with a 10 m radius circular buffer were created to calculate the area-based accuracy assessment. The resulting circular polygons were used to clip both the classified image objects and reference map for area comparisons. In this case, the area-based accuracy assessment resulted 64% and 68% for the OQ and OA, respectively. The overall quality of the calculation results shows the class-related area accuracy; which is the area of correctly classified as tree crowns was 64% out of the total area of tree crowns. On the other hand, the overall accuracy of 68% was calculated as the percentage of all correctly classified classes (tree crowns and canopy gaps) in comparison to the total class area (an entire image). Overall, the area-based accuracy assessment was simple to implement and easy to interpret. It also shows explicitly the omission and commission error variations of object boundary delineation with colour coded polygons.

  18. Analysis of "never events" following adult cardiac surgical procedures in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robich, Michael P; Krafcik, Brianna M; Shah, Nishant K; Farber, Alik; Rybin, Denis; Siracuse, Jeffrey J

    2017-10-01

    This study was conducted to determine the risk factors, nature, and outcomes of "never events" following open adult cardiac surgical procedures. Understanding of these events can reduce their occurrence, and thereby improve patient care, quality metrics, and cost reduction. "Never events" for patients included in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample who underwent coronary artery bypass graft, heart valve repair/replacement, or thoracic aneurysm repair between 2003-2011 were documented. These events included air embolism, catheter-based urinary tract infection (UTI), pressure ulcer, falls/trauma, blood incompatibility, vascular catheter infection, poor glucose control, foreign object retention, wrong site surgery and mediastinitis. Analysis included characterization of preoperative demographics, comorbidities and outcomes for patients sustaining never events, and multivariate analysis of predictive risk factors and outcomes. A total of 588,417 patients meeting inclusion criteria were identified. Of these, never events occurred in 4377 cases. The majority of events were in-hospital falls, vascular catheter infections, and complications of poor glucose control. Rates of falls, catheter based UTIs, and glucose control complications increased between 2009-2011 as compared to 2003-2008. Analysis revealed increased hospital length of stay, hospital charges, and mortality in patients who suffered a never event as compared to those that did not. This study establishes a baseline never event rate after cardiac surgery. Adverse patient outcomes and increased resource utilization resulting from never events emphasizes the need for quality improvement surrounding them. A better understanding of individual patient characteristics for those at risk can help in developing protocols to decrease occurrence rates.

  19. Olive Plantation Mapping on a Sub-Tree Scale with Object-Based Image Analysis of Multispectral UAV Data; Operational Potential in Tree Stress Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Karydas

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop a methodology for mapping olive plantations on a sub-tree scale. For this purpose, multispectral imagery of an almost 60-ha plantation in Greece was acquired with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. Objects smaller than the tree crown were produced with image segmentation. Three image features were indicated as optimum for discriminating olive trees from other objects in the plantation, in a rule-based classification algorithm. After limited manual corrections, the final output was validated by an overall accuracy of 93%. The overall processing chain can be considered as suitable for operational olive tree monitoring for potential stresses.

  20. Network analysis of breast cancer progression and reversal using a tree-evolving network algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur P Parikh

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The HMT3522 progression series of human breast cells have been used to discover how tissue architecture, microenvironment and signaling molecules affect breast cell growth and behaviors. However, much remains to be elucidated about malignant and phenotypic reversion behaviors of the HMT3522-T4-2 cells of this series. We employed a "pan-cell-state" strategy, and analyzed jointly microarray profiles obtained from different state-specific cell populations from this progression and reversion model of the breast cells using a tree-lineage multi-network inference algorithm, Treegl. We found that different breast cell states contain distinct gene networks. The network specific to non-malignant HMT3522-S1 cells is dominated by genes involved in normal processes, whereas the T4-2-specific network is enriched with cancer-related genes. The networks specific to various conditions of the reverted T4-2 cells are enriched with pathways suggestive of compensatory effects, consistent with clinical data showing patient resistance to anticancer drugs. We validated the findings using an external dataset, and showed that aberrant expression values of certain hubs in the identified networks are associated with poor clinical outcomes. Thus, analysis of various reversion conditions (including non-reverted of HMT3522 cells using Treegl can be a good model system to study drug effects on breast cancer.

  1. Modelling short‐rotation coppice and tree planting for urban carbon management – a citywide analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McHugh, Nicola; Edmondson, Jill L; Gaston, Kevin J; Leake, Jonathan R; O'Sullivan, Odhran S; Cadotte, Marc

    2015-01-01

    ... sustainability and reduce environmental impacts of urban dwellers. Here, we investigated the potential for increasing carbon sequestration, and biomass fuel production, by planting trees and short‐rotation coppice ( SRC...

  2. Extreme rainfall analysis based on precipitation events classification in Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Lorenzo; Fiori, Elisabetta; Molini, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Extreme rainfall statistical analysis is constituted by a consolidated family of techniques that allows to study the frequency and the statistical properties of the high-intensity meteorological events. This kind of techniques is well established and comprehends standards approaches like the GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) or TCEV (Two Components Extreme Value) probability distribution fit of the data recorded in a given raingauge on a given location. Regionalization techniques, that are aimed to spatialize the analysis on medium-large regions are also well established and operationally used. In this work a novel procedure is proposed in order to statistically characterize the rainfall extremes in a given region, basing on a "event-based" approach. Given a temporal sequence of continuous rain maps, an "event" is defined as an aggregate, continuous in time and space, of cells whose rainfall height value is above a certain threshold. Basing on this definition it is possible to classify, on a given region and for a given period, a population of events and characterize them with a number of statistics, such as their total volume, maximum spatial extension, duration, average intensity, etc. Thus, the population of events so obtained constitutes the input of a novel extreme values characteriztion technique: given a certain spatial scale, a mobile window analysis is performed and all the events that fall in the window are anlysed from an extreme value point of view. For each window, the extreme annual events are considered: maximum total volume, maximum spatial extension, maximum intensity, maximum duration are all considered for an extreme analysis and the corresponding probability distributions are fitted. The analysis allows in this way to statistically characterize the most intense events and, at the same time, to spatialize these rain characteristics exploring their variability in space. This methodology was employed on rainfall fields obtained by interpolation of

  3. Catchment process affecting drinking water quality, including the significance of rainfall events, using factor analysis and event mean concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinque, Kathy; Jayasuriya, Niranjali

    2010-12-01

    To ensure the protection of drinking water an understanding of the catchment processes which can affect water quality is important as it enables targeted catchment management actions to be implemented. In this study factor analysis (FA) and comparing event mean concentrations (EMCs) with baseline values were techniques used to asses the relationships between water quality parameters and linking those parameters to processes within an agricultural drinking water catchment. FA found that 55% of the variance in the water quality data could be explained by the first factor, which was dominated by parameters usually associated with erosion. Inclusion of pathogenic indicators in an additional FA showed that Enterococcus and Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) were also related to the erosion factor. Analysis of the EMCs found that most parameters were significantly higher during periods of rainfall runoff. This study shows that the most dominant processes in an agricultural catchment are surface runoff and erosion. It also shows that it is these processes which mobilise pathogenic indicators and are therefore most likely to influence the transport of pathogens. Catchment management efforts need to focus on reducing the effect of these processes on water quality.

  4. Autonomous Gait Event Detection with Portable Single-Camera Gait Kinematics Analysis System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Laboratory-based nonwearable motion analysis systems have significantly advanced with robust objective measurement of the limb motion, resulting in quantified, standardized, and reliable outcome measures compared with traditional, semisubjective, observational gait analysis. However, the requirement for large laboratory space and operational expertise makes these systems impractical for gait analysis at local clinics and homes. In this paper, we focus on autonomous gait event detection with our bespoke, relatively inexpensive, and portable, single-camera gait kinematics analysis system. Our proposed system includes video acquisition with camera calibration, Kalman filter + Structural-Similarity-based marker tracking, autonomous knee angle calculation, video-frame-identification-based autonomous gait event detection, and result visualization. The only operational effort required is the marker-template selection for tracking initialization, aided by an easy-to-use graphic user interface. The knee angle validation on 10 stroke patients and 5 healthy volunteers against a gold standard optical motion analysis system indicates very good agreement. The autonomous gait event detection shows high detection rates for all gait events. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system can automatically measure the knee angle and detect gait events with good accuracy and thus offer an alternative, cost-effective, and convenient solution for clinical gait kinematics analysis.

  5. Analysis of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions at HERA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, G.

    2007-02-07

    A study of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions is presented. Within the Standard Model (SM) such topologies are expected mainly from production of real W bosons with subsequent leptonic decay. This thesis continues the analysis of such events done in the HERA-1 period where an excess over the SM prediction was observed for events with high hadronic transverse momentum P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV. New data of the HERA-2 period are added. The analysed data sample recorded in e{sup +}p collisions corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 220 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of two more with respect to the HERA-1 analysis. The e{sup -}p data correspond to 186 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of 13 more with respect to HERA-1. All three lepton generations (electrons muons and tau leptons) are analysed. In the electron and muon channels a total of 53 events are observed in 406 pb{sup -1}. This compares well to the SM expectation of 53.7{+-}6.5 events, dominated by W production. However a difference in the event rate is observed for different electron beam charges. In e{sup +}p data the excess of events with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is sustained, while the e{sup -}p data agree with the SM. In the tau channel 18 events are observed in all HERA data, with 20{+-}3 expected from the SM. The events are dominated by irreducible background from charged currents. The contribution from W production amounts to about 22%. One event with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is observed, where 1.4{+-}0.3 are expected from the SM. (orig.)

  6. Analysis of the Radiometric Response of Orange Tree Crown in Hyperspectral Uav Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, N. N.; Moriya, E. A. S.; Honkavaara, E.; Miyoshi, G. T.; de Moraes, M. V. A.; Tommaselli, A. M. G.; Näsi, R.

    2017-10-01

    High spatial resolution remote sensing images acquired by drones are highly relevant data source in many applications. However, strong variations of radiometric values are difficult to correct in hyperspectral images. Honkavaara et al. (2013) presented a radiometric block adjustment method in which hyperspectral images taken from remotely piloted aerial systems - RPAS were processed both geometrically and radiometrically to produce a georeferenced mosaic in which the standard Reflectance Factor for the nadir is represented. The plants crowns in permanent cultivation show complex variations since the density of shadows and the irradiance of the surface vary due to the geometry of illumination and the geometry of the arrangement of branches and leaves. An evaluation of the radiometric quality of the mosaic of an orange plantation produced using images captured by a hyperspectral imager based on a tunable Fabry-Pérot interferometer and applying the radiometric block adjustment method, was performed. A high-resolution UAV based hyperspectral survey was carried out in an orange-producing farm located in Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A set of 25 narrow spectral bands with 2.5 cm of GSD images were acquired. Trend analysis was applied to the values of a sample of transects extracted from plants appearing in the mosaic. The results of these trend analysis on the pixels distributed along transects on orange tree crown showed the reflectance factor presented a slightly trend, but the coefficients of the polynomials are very small, so the quality of mosaic is good enough for many applications.

  7. ANALYSIS OF THE RADIOMETRIC RESPONSE OF ORANGE TREE CROWN IN HYPERSPECTRAL UAV IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Imai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available High spatial resolution remote sensing images acquired by drones are highly relevant data source in many applications. However, strong variations of radiometric values are difficult to correct in hyperspectral images. Honkavaara et al. (2013 presented a radiometric block adjustment method in which hyperspectral images taken from remotely piloted aerial systems – RPAS were processed both geometrically and radiometrically to produce a georeferenced mosaic in which the standard Reflectance Factor for the nadir is represented. The plants crowns in permanent cultivation show complex variations since the density of shadows and the irradiance of the surface vary due to the geometry of illumination and the geometry of the arrangement of branches and leaves. An evaluation of the radiometric quality of the mosaic of an orange plantation produced using images captured by a hyperspectral imager based on a tunable Fabry-Pérot interferometer and applying the radiometric block adjustment method, was performed. A high-resolution UAV based hyperspectral survey was carried out in an orange-producing farm located in Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A set of 25 narrow spectral bands with 2.5 cm of GSD images were acquired. Trend analysis was applied to the values of a sample of transects extracted from plants appearing in the mosaic. The results of these trend analysis on the pixels distributed along transects on orange tree crown showed the reflectance factor presented a slightly trend, but the coefficients of the polynomials are very small, so the quality of mosaic is good enough for many applications.

  8. The impact of tree age on biomass growth and carbon accumulation capacity: A retrospective analysis using tree ring data of three tropical tree species grown in natural forests of Suriname.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Köhl

    Full Text Available The world's forests play a pivotal role in the mitigation of global climate change. By photosynthesis they remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store carbon in their biomass. While old trees are generally acknowledged for a long carbon residence time, there is no consensus on their contribution to carbon accumulation due to a lack of long-term individual tree data. Tree ring analyses, which use anatomical differences in the annual formation of wood for dating growth zones, are a retrospective approach that provides growth patterns of individual trees over their entire lifetime. We developed time series of diameter growth and related annual carbon accumulation for 61 trees of the species Cedrela odorata L. (Meliacea, Hymenaea courbaril L. (Fabacea and Goupia glabra Aubl. (Goupiacea. The trees grew in unmanaged tropical wet-forests of Suriname and reached ages from 84 to 255 years. Most of the trees show positive trends of diameter growth and carbon accumulation over time. For some trees we observed fluctuating growth-periods of lower growth alternate with periods of increased growth. In the last quarter of their lifetime trees accumulate on average between 39 percent (C. odorata and 50 percent (G. glabra of their final carbon stock. This suggests that old-growth trees in tropical forests do not only contribute to carbon stocks by long carbon resistance times, but maintain high rates of carbon accumulation at later stages of their life time.

  9. The impact of tree age on biomass growth and carbon accumulation capacity: A retrospective analysis using tree ring data of three tropical tree species grown in natural forests of Suriname.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhl, Michael; Neupane, Prem R; Lotfiomran, Neda

    2017-01-01

    The world's forests play a pivotal role in the mitigation of global climate change. By photosynthesis they remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store carbon in their biomass. While old trees are generally acknowledged for a long carbon residence time, there is no consensus on their contribution to carbon accumulation due to a lack of long-term individual tree data. Tree ring analyses, which use anatomical differences in the annual formation of wood for dating growth zones, are a retrospective approach that provides growth patterns of individual trees over their entire lifetime. We developed time series of diameter growth and related annual carbon accumulation for 61 trees of the species Cedrela odorata L. (Meliacea), Hymenaea courbaril L. (Fabacea) and Goupia glabra Aubl. (Goupiacea). The trees grew in unmanaged tropical wet-forests of Suriname and reached ages from 84 to 255 years. Most of the trees show positive trends of diameter growth and carbon accumulation over time. For some trees we observed fluctuating growth-periods of lower growth alternate with periods of increased growth. In the last quarter of their lifetime trees accumulate on average between 39 percent (C. odorata) and 50 percent (G. glabra) of their final carbon stock. This suggests that old-growth trees in tropical forests do not only contribute to carbon stocks by long carbon resistance times, but maintain high rates of carbon accumulation at later stages of their life time.

  10. Analysis of meal patterns with the use of supervised data mining techniques--artificial neural networks and decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearty, Aine P; Gibney, Michael J

    2008-12-01

    At present, the analysis of dietary patterns is based on the intake of individual foods. This article demonstrates how a coding system at the meal level might be analyzed by using data mining techniques. The objective was to evaluate the usability of supervised data mining methods to predict an aspect of dietary quality based on dietary intake with a food-based coding system and a novel meal-based coding system. Food consumption databases from the North-South Ireland Food Consumption Survey 1997-1999 were used. This was a randomized cross-sectional study of 7-d recorded food and nutrient intakes of a representative sample of 1379 Irish adults. Meal definitions were recorded by the respondent. A healthy eating index (HEI) score was developed. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and decision trees were used to predict quintiles of the HEI based on combinations of foods consumed at breakfast and main meals. This study applied both data mining techniques to the food and meal-based coding systems. The ANN had a slightly higher accuracy than did the decision tree in relation to its ability to predict HEI quintiles 1 and 5 based on the food coding system (78.7% compared with 76.9% and 71.9% compared with 70.1%, respectively). However, the decision tree had higher accuracies than did the ANN on the basis of the meal coding system (67.5% compared with 54.6% and 75.1% compared with 72.4%, respectively). ANNs and decision trees were successfully used to predict an aspect of dietary quality. However, further exploration of the use of ANNs and decision trees in dietary pattern analysis is warranted.

  11. Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mokria, Mulugeta; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Abiyu, Abrham; Noordwijk, Van Meine; Bräuning, Achim

    2017-01-01

    Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to

  12. Species tree inference by minimizing deep coalescences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuong Than

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In a 1997 seminal paper, W. Maddison proposed minimizing deep coalescences, or MDC, as an optimization criterion for inferring the species tree from a set of incongruent gene trees, assuming the incongruence is exclusively due to lineage sorting. In a subsequent paper, Maddison and Knowles provided and implemented a search heuristic for optimizing the MDC criterion, given a set of gene trees. However, the heuristic is not guaranteed to compute optimal solutions, and its hill-climbing search makes it slow in practice. In this paper, we provide two exact solutions to the problem of inferring the species tree from a set of gene trees under the MDC criterion. In other words, our solutions are guaranteed to find the tree that minimizes the total number of deep coalescences from a set of gene trees. One solution is based on a novel integer linear programming (ILP formulation, and another is based on a simple dynamic programming (DP approach. Powerful ILP solvers, such as CPLEX, make the first solution appealing, particularly for very large-scale instances of the problem, whereas the DP-based solution eliminates dependence on proprietary tools, and its simplicity makes it easy to integrate with other genomic events that may cause gene tree incongruence. Using the exact solutions, we analyze a data set of 106 loci from eight yeast species, a data set of 268 loci from eight Apicomplexan species, and several simulated data sets. We show that the MDC criterion provides very accurate estimates of the species tree topologies, and that our solutions are very fast, thus allowing for the accurate analysis of genome-scale data sets. Further, the efficiency of the solutions allow for quick exploration of sub-optimal solutions, which is important for a parsimony-based criterion such as MDC, as we show. We show that searching for the species tree in the compatibility graph of the clusters induced by the gene trees may be sufficient in practice, a finding that helps

  13. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Flowering Trees. Dolichandrone atrovirens (Roth) K. Schum. (Spathe Trumpet Tree) of Bignoniaceae is a medium-sized handsome tree with a straight bole that branches at the top. Leaves are once pinnate, with two to three pairs of leaflets. Young parts of the tree are velvety. Inflorescence is a branched raceme borne at the ...

  14. Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Fang; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Yong; Fan, Qin-Ying; Wang, Lin

    2016-05-20

    In the past decades, studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China. With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years, available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China, especially with comparison between native residents and floating population. This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing. As useful methods to build a predictive model, Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia. A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics. The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia. Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months, and floating population, CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor, the maternal educational level, with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve. The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners. CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity. Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.

  15. Similarity and Cluster Analysis of Intermediate Deep Events in the Southeastern Aegean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscic, Marija; Becker, Dirk; Brüstle, Andrea; Meier, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a cluster of intermediate deep events in the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone (HSZ), recorded during the the deployment of the temporary seismic network EGELADOS in order to gain a better understanding of geodynamic processes in the HSZ, in particular in the eastern part. The cluster consists of 159 events at 80 to 200 km depth with local magnitudes ranging from magnitude 0.2 to magnitude 4.1. By using the three component similarity analysis, both spatial and temporal clustering of the recorded events is studied. The waveform cross-correlation was performed for all event combinations using data recorded on 45 onshore stations. The cross-correlation coefficients at the single stations show a decrease in similarity with increasing epicentral distance as well as the effect of local heterogenities at particular stations, causing noticable differences in waveform similarities. However, highly similar events tend to happen at the prefered depth ranges between 120 to 150 km depth. The double-difference earthquake relocation software HypoDD was used to perform the event relocation. The results are compared with previously obtained single event locations which were calculated using nonlinear location tool NonLinLoc and station corrections. For the relocation, both differential traveltimes obtained by separate cross-correlation of P- and S-waveforms and manual readings of onset times are used. It is shown that after the relocation the inter-event distance for highly similar events has been reduced. By comparing the results of the cluster analysis with results obtained from the synthetic catalogs, where the event rate, number of aftershocks and occurrence time of the aftershocks is varied, it is shown that the event-time distribution follows almost a random Poisson time distribution with a slightly increasing event rate without indications for substantial inter-event triggering. The spatial distribution of the cluster can be modelled by a two

  16. Research on the Measurement of Carbon Storage in Plantation Tree Trunks Based on the Carbon Storage Dynamic Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weida Yin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of forest carbon storage can be of great significance to the research on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystem, carbon cycle, and global warming. China has more than 54 million hm2 barren hills and waste land suitable for forestation, which provides a great potential for developing carbon sink forestry by means of forestation. This research analyzed the volume increments, volume densities, and carbon contents of 15 analytical samples of five main plantation tree species in North China, including Pinus tabulaeformis (A, Robinia pseudoacacia (B, Populus euramericana (C, Larix olgenisis (D, and Larix kaempferi (E. Results showed that carbon storage dynamic process can be expressed as follows: the ages of quantitative maturity of each tree species are 67a, 40a, 30a, 48a, 49a, respectively; the average wood densities of each tree species at different age classes are 550.93 kg/m3, 629.25 kg/m3, 404.56 kg/m3, 592.33 kg/m3, and 544.11 kg/m3,t. The average carbon contents of each tree species at different age classes are 51.48%, 46.88%, 47.81%, 46.76%, and 47.24%. It showed a significant difference between the above tree species through variance test. The maximum values of average carbon storage are 70a, 40a, 30a, 48.7a, and 49.2a, respectively. The corresponding average carbon storages are A 2.527 kg, B 3,794 kg, C 2.781 kg, D 2.996 kg, and E 3,322 kg, in a descending order of C>E>D>B>A. This research, through experiment on four tree species with clear growth rings and one tree species with unclear growth rings, verified the scientific character and the scope of application of the carbon storage dynamic analysis method, providing a new method for the measurement and analysis of forest carbon storage.

  17. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiwen Mei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

  18. Striking life events associated with primary breast cancer susceptibility in women: a meta-analysis study

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Yan; Wang, Changjun; Zhong, Ying; Huang, Xin; Peng, Li; Shan, Guangliang; Wang, Ke; Sun, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The association between striking life events, an important stress and acute anxiety disorder, and the occurrence of primary breast cancer is unclear. The current meta-analysis was designed to assess the relationship between striking life events and primary breast cancer incidence in women. Methods Systematic computerized searching of the PubMed, ScienceDirect, Embase, and BMJ databases with the combinations of controlled descriptors from Mesh, including breast cancer, breast tumor, ca...

  19. Root-Cause Analysis of a Potentially Sentinel Transfusion Event: Lessons for Improvement of Patient Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Jeddian

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Errors prevention and patient safety in transfusion medicine are a serious concern. Errors can occur at any step in transfusion and evaluation of their root causes can be helpful for preventive measures. Root cause analysis as a structured and systematic approach can be used for identification of underlying causes of adverse events. To specify system vulnerabilities and illustrate the potential of such an approach, we describe the root cause analysis of a case of transfusion error in emergency ward that could have been fatal. After reporting of the mentioned event, through reviewing records and interviews with the responsible personnel, the details of the incident were elaborated. Then, an expert panel meeting was held to define event timeline and the care and service delivery problems and discuss their underlying causes, safeguards and preventive measures. Root cause analysis of the mentioned event demonstrated that certain defects of the system and the ensuing errors were main causes of the event. It also points out systematic corrective actions. It can be concluded that health care organizations should endeavor to provide opportunities to discuss errors and adverse events and introduce preventive measures to find areas where resources need to be allocated to improve patient safety.

  20. The Inference of Gene Trees with Species Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree–species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree–species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution. PMID:25070970

  1. Modelling short-rotation coppice and tree planting for urban carbon management - a citywide analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Nicola; Edmondson, Jill L; Gaston, Kevin J; Leake, Jonathan R; O'Sullivan, Odhran S

    2015-10-01

    The capacity of urban areas to deliver provisioning ecosystem services is commonly overlooked and underutilized. Urban populations have globally increased fivefold since 1950, and they disproportionately consume ecosystem services and contribute to carbon emissions, highlighting the need to increase urban sustainability and reduce environmental impacts of urban dwellers. Here, we investigated the potential for increasing carbon sequestration, and biomass fuel production, by planting trees and short-rotation coppice (SRC), respectively, in a mid-sized UK city as a contribution to meeting national commitments to reduce CO 2 emissions.Iterative GIS models were developed using high-resolution spatial data. The models were applied to patches of public and privately owned urban greenspace suitable for planting trees and SRC, across the 73 km 2 area of the city of Leicester. We modelled tree planting with a species mix based on the existing tree populations, and SRC with willow and poplar to calculate biomass production in new trees, and carbon sequestration into harvested biomass over 25 years.An area of 11 km 2 comprising 15% of the city met criteria for tree planting and had the potential over 25 years to sequester 4200 tonnes of carbon above-ground. Of this area, 5·8 km 2 also met criteria for SRC planting and over the same period this could yield 71 800 tonnes of carbon in harvested biomass.The harvested biomass could supply energy to over 1566 domestic homes or 30 municipal buildings, resulting in avoided carbon emissions of 29 236 tonnes of carbon over 25 years when compared to heating by natural gas. Together with the net carbon sequestration into trees, a total reduction of 33 419 tonnes of carbon in the atmosphere could be achieved in 25 years by combined SRC and tree planting across the city. Synthesis and applications . We demonstrate that urban greenspaces in a typical UK city are underutilized for provisioning ecosystem services by trees and

  2. Classification and regression tree analysis vs. multivariable linear and logistic regression methods as statistical tools for studying haemophilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrard, S; Speybroeck, N; Hermans, C

    2015-11-01

    Haemophilia is a rare genetic haemorrhagic disease characterized by partial or complete deficiency of coagulation factor VIII, for haemophilia A, or IX, for haemophilia B. As in any other medical research domain, the field of haemophilia research is increasingly concerned with finding factors associated with binary or continuous outcomes through multivariable models. Traditional models include multiple logistic regressions, for binary outcomes, and multiple linear regressions for continuous outcomes. Yet these regression models are at times difficult to implement, especially for non-statisticians, and can be difficult to interpret. The present paper sought to didactically explain how, why, and when to use classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for haemophilia research. The CART method is non-parametric and non-linear, based on the repeated partitioning of a sample into subgroups based on a certain criterion. Breiman developed this method in 1984. Classification trees (CTs) are used to analyse categorical outcomes and regression trees (RTs) to analyse continuous ones. The CART methodology has become increasingly popular in the medical field, yet only a few examples of studies using this methodology specifically in haemophilia have to date been published. Two examples using CART analysis and previously published in this field are didactically explained in details. There is increasing interest in using CART analysis in the health domain, primarily due to its ease of implementation, use, and interpretation, thus facilitating medical decision-making. This method should be promoted for analysing continuous or categorical outcomes in haemophilia, when applicable. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Causation mechanism analysis for haze pollution related to vehicle emission in Guangzhou, China by employing the fault tree approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Xu, Pingru; Qian, Yu

    2016-05-01

    Recently, China has frequently experienced large-scale, severe and persistent haze pollution due to surging urbanization and industrialization and a rapid growth in the number of motor vehicles and energy consumption. The vehicle emission due to the consumption of a large number of fossil fuels is no doubt a critical factor of the haze pollution. This work is focused on the causation mechanism of haze pollution related to the vehicle emission for Guangzhou city by employing the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method for the first time. With the establishment of the fault tree system of "Haze weather-Vehicle exhausts explosive emission", all of the important risk factors are discussed and identified by using this deductive FTA method. The qualitative and quantitative assessments of the fault tree system are carried out based on the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk factors. The study may provide a new simple and effective tool/strategy for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of haze pollution in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Agricultural Geography Analysis of Carob Tree (Ceratonia siliqua L. from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güven Şahin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L. is one of the oldest trees in the world and has been cultivated from civilization of Ancient Persia, especially on the Mediterranean coasts, till nowadays. The fruit of the carob tree (carob bean are attracting attention in recent years due among others to tits rich nutritional value and use as a substitute and/or alternative for cocoa. Although it has higher sugar content than sugar beet and sugar cane, it is a food that also lowers cholesterol. In addition to its fruit, the plant has interesting morphological qualities. Deep root system of carob tree allows high productivity even in draught conditions; it is an ideal plant in the fight against erosion and one of the most preferred plants while establishing fire-resistant forests. Additionally, because 2016 was declared the International Year of Pulses, it is necessary to draw attention to the carob tree since it is a typical pulse plant. The status of Turkey, as the 5th carob producer in the world, was analysed in this context, in terms of Agricultural Geography. The existing and necessary practices in carob production are discussed based on the data from the studies conducted in Antalya and Mersin in 2015 and previous ones.

  5. [Biomass dynamics of tree branches of higher order. A model analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galitskiĭ, V V

    2012-01-01

    The sectional model of biomass dynamics of freely growing tree brahcnes of all orders is presented. The model is an extension of the sectional tree biomass model proposed earlier. The branches model showed bell-shaped dynamics of a branches biomass and, accordingly, boundedness of branch orders number. The important element of the model of branches system is the inter-verticil green biomass. The model is parameterized on the basis of published data on lifespan of branches of different orders and age in which the biomass of skeletal branches of spruce, Picea abies (L.) Karst, reaches the maximum. When adding known peculiarities of spruce growth (such as the initial growth inhibiton and presence of the inter-verticil branches) to the model of biomass dynamics of regular branches system, good appproximation of all natural data by model values is obtained. The possible mechanism of inter-verticil branches appearance in response to improvement of a tree growth conditions, and also their function in a tree growth process, namely replacement of regular branches incapable of appropriate response, is described. Initiation of appearing and/or waking of the sleeping (adventive) buds which give rise to inter-verticil branches is probably caused by rise of pressure of photosynthates in a tree phloem what the published results of experiments on a decapitaion of branches of Wollemia nobilis (Araucariaceae) also testify.

  6. Decision tree analysis of genetic risk for clinically heterogeneous Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Jennifer S; Bonham, Luke W; Sears, Renee L; Klein, Eric; Karydas, Anna; Kramer, Joel H; Miller, Bruce L; Coppola, Giovanni

    2015-03-28

    Heritability of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is estimated at 74% and genetic contributors have been widely sought. The ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E (APOE) remains the strongest common risk factor for AD, with numerous other common variants contributing only modest risk for disease. Variability in clinical presentation of AD, which is typically amnestic (AmnAD) but can less commonly involve visuospatial, language and/or dysexecutive syndromes (atypical or AtAD), further complicates genetic analyses. Taking a multi-locus approach may increase the ability to identify individuals at highest risk for any AD syndrome. In this study, we sought to develop and investigate the utility of a multi-variant genetic risk assessment on a cohort of phenotypically heterogeneous patients with sporadic AD clinical diagnoses. We genotyped 75 variants in our cohort and, using a two-staged study design, we developed a 17-marker AD risk score in a Discovery cohort (n = 59 cases, n = 133 controls) then assessed its utility in a second Validation cohort (n = 126 cases, n = 150 controls). We also performed a data-driven decision tree analysis to identify genetic and/or demographic criteria that are most useful for accurately differentiating all AD cases from controls. We confirmed APOE ε4 as a strong risk factor for AD. A 17-marker risk panel predicted AD significantly better than APOE genotype alone (P risk in non-ε4 carriers. Our study suggests that APOE ε4 remains the best predictor of broad AD risk when compared to multiple other genetic factors with modest effects, that phenotypic heterogeneity in broad AD can complicate simple polygenic risk modeling, and supports the association between HFE and AD risk in individuals without APOE ε4.

  7. Multiscale analysis of tree cover and aboveground carbon stocks in pinyon-juniper woodlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cho-Ying; Asner, Gregory P; Martin, Roberta E; Barger, Nichole N; Neff, Jason C

    2009-04-01

    Regional, high-resolution mapping of vegetation cover and biomass is central to understanding changes to the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, especially in the context of C management. The third most extensive vegetation type in the United States is pinyon-juniper (P-J) woodland, yet the spatial patterns of tree cover and aboveground biomass (AGB) of P-J systems are poorly quantified. We developed a synoptic remote-sensing approach to scale up pinyon and juniper projected cover (hereafter "cover") and AGB field observations from plot to regional levels using fractional photosynthetic vegetation (PV) cover derived from airborne imaging spectroscopy and Landsat satellite data. Our results demonstrated strong correlations (P satellite PV estimates (r2 = 0.61). Field data also indicated that P-J AGB can be estimated from canopy cover using a unified allometric equation (r2 = 0.69; P < 0.001). Using these multiscale cover-AGB relationships, we developed high-resolution, regional maps of P-J cover and AGB for the western Colorado Plateau. The P-J cover was 27.4% +/- 9.9% (mean +/- SD), and the mean aboveground woody C converted from AGB was 5.2 +/- 2.0 Mg C/ha. Combining our data with the southwest Regional Gap Analysis Program vegetation map, we estimated that total contemporary woody C storage for P-J systems throughout the Colorado Plateau (113 600 km2) is 59.0 +/- 22.7 Tg C. Our results show how multiple remote-sensing observations can be used to map cover and C stocks at high resolution in drylands, and they highlight the role of P-J ecosystems in the North American C budget.

  8. Monitoring Urban Tree Cover Using Object-Based Image Analysis and Public Domain Remotely Sensed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan Halabisky

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Urban forest ecosystems provide a range of social and ecological services, but due to the heterogeneity of these canopies their spatial extent is difficult to quantify and monitor. Traditional per-pixel classification methods have been used to map urban canopies, however, such techniques are not generally appropriate for assessing these highly variable landscapes. Landsat imagery has historically been used for per-pixel driven land use/land cover (LULC classifications, but the spatial resolution limits our ability to map small urban features. In such cases, hyperspatial resolution imagery such as aerial or satellite imagery with a resolution of 1 meter or below is preferred. Object-based image analysis (OBIA allows for use of additional variables such as texture, shape, context, and other cognitive information provided by the image analyst to segment and classify image features, and thus, improve classifications. As part of this research we created LULC classifications for a pilot study area in Seattle, WA, USA, using OBIA techniques and freely available public aerial photography. We analyzed the differences in accuracies which can be achieved with OBIA using multispectral and true-color imagery. We also compared our results to a satellite based OBIA LULC and discussed the implications of per-pixel driven vs. OBIA-driven field sampling campaigns. We demonstrated that the OBIA approach can generate good and repeatable LULC classifications suitable for tree cover assessment in urban areas. Another important finding is that spectral content appeared to be more important than spatial detail of hyperspatial data when it comes to an OBIA-driven LULC.

  9. Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forests is enormous. We propose a more fundamental approach to these problems by characterizing forests by their patterns of survival. We expect our approach to distill real-world tree survival into a reasonable number of functional types. Using 10 large-area tropical forest plots that span geographic, edaphic and climatic gradients, we model tree survival as a function of tree size for hundreds of species. We found surprisingly few categories of size-survival functions emerge. This indicates some fundamental strategies at play across diverse forests to constrain the range of possible size-survival functions. Initial cluster analysis indicates that four to eight functional forms are necessary to describe variation in size-survival relations. Temporal variation in size-survival functions can be related to local environmental variation, allowing us to parameterize how demographically similar groups of species respond to perturbations in the ecosystem. We believe this methodology will yield a synthetic approach to classifying forest systems that will greatly reduce uncertainty and complexity in global vegetation models.

  10. Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Mikyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)-data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89 * ). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, "injuries to the hip and thigh" was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data.

  11. Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. N.; Patton, H. J.; Taylor, S. R.; Bonner, J. L.; Selby, N. D.

    2014-03-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.

  12. Magnesium and the Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Yongqiang; Li, Huiwu; Tang, Tingting; Wang, Hao; Yan, Weili; Dai, Kerong

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective studies that have examined the association between dietary magnesium intake and serum magnesium concentrations and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events have reported conflicting findings. We undertook a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between dietary magnesium intake and serum magnesium concentrations and the risk of total CVD events. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed systematic searches on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and OVID up to February 1, 2012 without limits. Categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response, heterogeneity, publication bias, subgroup, and meta-regression analysis were performed. The analysis included 532,979 participants from 19 studies (11 studies on dietary magnesium intake, 6 studies on serum magnesium concentrations, and 2 studies on both) with 19,926 CVD events. The pooled relative risks of total CVD events for the highest vs. lowest category of dietary magnesium intake and serum magnesium concentrations were 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.92) and 0.77 (0.66 to 0.87), respectively. In linear dose-response analysis, only serum magnesium concentrations ranging from 1.44 to 1.8 mEq/L were significantly associated with total CVD events risk (0.91, 0.85 to 0.97) per 0.1 mEq/L (Pnonlinearity = 0.465). However, significant inverse associations emerged in nonlinear models for dietary magnesium intake (Pnonlinearity = 0.024). The greatest risk reduction occurred when intake increased from 150 to 400 mg/d. There was no evidence of publication bias. Conclusions/Significance There is a statistically significant nonlinear inverse association between dietary magnesium intake and total CVD events risk. Serum magnesium concentrations are linearly and inversely associated with the risk of total CVD events. PMID:23520480

  13. NMR-Based Metabolomic Analysis of Huanglongbing-Asymptomatic and -Symptomatic Citrus Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Deisy dos Santos; Carlos, Eduardo Fermino; Gil, Márcia Cristina Soares de Souza; Vieira, Luiz Gonzaga Esteves; Alcantara, Glaucia Braz

    2015-09-02

    Huanglongbing (HLB) is one of the most severe diseases that affects citrus trees worldwide and is associated with the yet uncultured bacteria Candidatus Liberibacter spp. To assess the metabolomic differences between HLB-asymptomatic and -symptomatic tissues, extracts from leaf and root samples taken from a uniform 6-year-old commercial orchard of Valencia trees were subjected to nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and chemometrics. The results show that the symptomatic trees had higher sucrose content in their leaves and no variation in their roots. In addition, proline betaine and malate were detected in smaller amounts in the HLB-affected symptomatic leaves. The changes in metabolic processes of the plant in response to HLB are corroborated by the relationship between the bacterial levels and the metabolic profiles.

  14. Idaho National Laboratory Quarterly Event Performance Analysis FY 2013 4th Quarter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, Lisbeth A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2013-11-01

    This report is published quarterly by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Performance Assurance Organization. The Department of Energy Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) as prescribed in DOE Order 232.2 “Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information” requires a quarterly analysis of events, both reportable and not reportable for the previous twelve months. This report is the analysis of occurrence reports and deficiency reports (including not reportable events) identified at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during the period of October 2012 through September 2013.

  15. Comparative analysis of tree classification models for detecting fusarium oxysporum f. sp cubense (TR4) based on multi soil sensor parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuar, Maria Regina Justina; Victorino, John Noel; Coronel, Andrei; Co, Jerelyn; Tiausas, Francis; Señires, Chiara Veronica

    2017-09-01

    Use of wireless sensor networks and smartphone integration design to monitor environmental parameters surrounding plantations is made possible because of readily available and affordable sensors. Providing low cost monitoring devices would be beneficial, especially to small farm owners, in a developing country like the Philippines, where agriculture covers a significant amount of the labor market. This study discusses the integration of wireless soil sensor devices and smartphones to create an application that will use multidimensional analysis to detect the presence or absence of plant disease. Specifically, soil sensors are designed to collect soil quality parameters in a sink node from which the smartphone collects data from via Bluetooth. Given these, there is a need to develop a classification model on the mobile phone that will report infection status of a soil. Though tree classification is the most appropriate approach for continuous parameter-based datasets, there is a need to determine whether tree models will result to coherent results or not. Soil sensor data that resides on the phone is modeled using several variations of decision tree, namely: decision tree (DT), best-fit (BF) decision tree, functional tree (FT), Naive Bayes (NB) decision tree, J48, J48graft and LAD tree, where decision tree approaches the problem by considering all sensor nodes as one. Results show that there are significant differences among soil sensor parameters indicating that there are variances in scores between the infected and uninfected sites. Furthermore, analysis of variance in accuracy, recall, precision and F1 measure scores from tree classification models homogeneity among NBTree, J48graft and J48 tree classification models.

  16. Meta-analysis of general bacterial subclades in whole-genome phylogenies using tree topology profiling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinel, Thomas; Krause, Antje

    2012-01-01

    In the last two decades, a large number of whole-genome phylogenies have been inferred to reconstruct the Tree of Life (ToL). Underlying data models range from gene or functionality content in species to phylogenetic gene family trees and multiple sequence alignments of concatenated protein sequences. Diversity in data models together with the use of different tree reconstruction techniques, disruptive biological effects and the steadily increasing number of genomes have led to a huge diversity in published phylogenies. Comparison of those and, moreover, identification of the impact of inference properties (underlying data model, inference technique) on particular reconstructions is almost impossible. In this work, we introduce tree topology profiling as a method to compare already published whole-genome phylogenies. This method requires visual determination of the particular topology in a drawn whole-genome phylogeny for a set of particular bacterial clans. For each clan, neighborhoods to other bacteria are collected into a catalogue of generalized alternative topologies. Particular topology alternatives found for an ordered list of bacterial clans reveal a topology profile that represents the analyzed phylogeny. To simulate the inhomogeneity of published gene content phylogenies we generate a set of seven phylogenies using different inference techniques and the SYSTERS-PhyloMatrix data model. After tree topology profiling on in total 54 selected published and newly inferred phylogenies, we separate artefactual from biologically meaningful phylogenies and associate particular inference results (phylogenies) with inference background (inference techniques as well as data models). Topological relationships of particular bacterial species groups are presented. With this work we introduce tree topology profiling into the scientific field of comparative phylogenomics.

  17. FFTF Event Fact Sheet root cause analysis calendar year 1985 through 1988

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, G.B.

    1988-12-01

    The Event Fact Sheets written from January 1985 through mid August 1988 were reviewed to determine their root causes. The review group represented many of the technical disciplines present in plant operation. The review was initiated as an internal critique aimed at maximizing the ``lessons learned`` from the event reporting system. The root causes were subjected to a Pareto analysis to determine the significant causal factor groups. Recommendations for correction of the high frequency causal factors were then developed and presented to the FFTF Plant management. In general, the distributions of the causal factors were found to closely follow the industry averages. The impacts of the events were also studied and it was determined that we generally report events of a level of severity below that of the available studies. Therefore it is concluded that the recommendations for corrective action are ones to improve the overall quality of operations and not to correct significant operational deficiencies. 17 figs.

  18. Analysis of events related to cracks and leaks in the reactor coolant pressure boundary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballesteros, Antonio, E-mail: Antonio.Ballesteros-Avila@ec.europa.eu [JRC-IET: Institute for Energy and Transport of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Postbus 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Sanda, Radian; Peinador, Miguel; Zerger, Benoit [JRC-IET: Institute for Energy and Transport of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Postbus 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Negri, Patrice [IRSN: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (France); Wenke, Rainer [GRS: Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH (Germany)

    2014-08-15

    Highlights: • The important role of Operating Experience Feedback is emphasised. • Events relating to cracks and leaks in the reactor coolant pressure boundary are analysed. • A methodology for event investigation is described. • Some illustrative results of the analysis of events for specific components are presented. - Abstract: The presence of cracks and leaks in the reactor coolant pressure boundary may jeopardise the safe operation of nuclear power plants. Analysis of cracks and leaks related events is an important task for the prevention of their recurrence, which should be performed in the context of activities on Operating Experience Feedback. In response to this concern, the EU Clearinghouse operated by the JRC-IET supports and develops technical and scientific work to disseminate the lessons learned from past operating experience. In particular, concerning cracks and leaks, the studies carried out in collaboration with IRSN and GRS have allowed to identify the most sensitive areas to degradation in the plant primary system and to elaborate recommendations for upgrading the maintenance, ageing management and inspection programmes. An overview of the methodology used in the analysis of cracks and leaks related events is presented in this paper, together with the relevant results obtained in the study.

  19. Erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular events in diabetic men: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomohide Yamada

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that erectile dysfunction (ED influences the risk of cardiovascular events (CV events. However, a meta-analysis of the overall risk of CV events associated with ED in patients with diabetes has not been performed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library for pertinent articles (including references published between 1951 and April 22, 2012. English language reports of original observational cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were included. Pooled effect estimates were obtained by random effects meta-analysis. A total of 3,791 CV events were reported in 3 cohort studies and 9 cross-sectional studies (covering 22,586 subjects. Across the cohort studies, the overall odds ratio (OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-2.27; P0.05. Moreover, meta-regression analysis found no relationship between the method used to assess ED (questionnaire or interview, mean age, mean hemoglobin A(1c, mean body mass index, or mean duration of diabetes and the risk of CV events or CHD. In the cross-sectional studies, the OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 3.39 (95% CI: 2.58-4.44; P<0.001 for CV events (N = 9, 3.43 (95% CI: 2.46-4.77; P<0.001 for CHD (N = 7, and 2.63 (95% CI: 1.41-4.91; P = 0.002 for peripheral vascular disease (N = 5. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: ED was associated with an increased risk of CV events in diabetic patients. Prevention and early detection of cardiovascular disease are important in the management of diabetes, especially in view of the rapid increase in its prevalence.

  20. Brain Network Activation Analysis Utilizing Spatiotemporal Features for Event Related Potentials Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaki Stern

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to introduce an improved tool for automated classification of event-related potentials (ERPs using spatiotemporally parcellated events incorporated into a functional brain network activation (BNA analysis. The auditory oddball ERP paradigm was selected to demonstrate and evaluate the improved tool. Methods: The ERPs of each subject were decomposed into major dynamic spatiotemporal events. Then, a set of spatiotemporal events representing the group was generated by aligning and clustering the spatiotemporal events of all individual subjects. The temporal relationship between the common group events generated a network, which is the spatiotemporal reference BNA model. Scores were derived by comparing each subject’s spatiotemporal events to the reference BNA model and were then entered into a support vector machine classifier to classify subjects into relevant subgroups. The reliability of the BNA scores (test-retest repeatability using intraclass correlation and their utility as a classification tool were examined in the context of Target-Novel classification. Results: BNA intraclass correlation values of repeatability ranged between 0.51 and 0.82 for the known ERP components N100, P200 and P300. Classification accuracy was high when the trained data were validated on the same subjects for different visits (AUCs 0.93 and 0.95. The classification accuracy remained high for a test group recorded at a different clinical center with a different recording system (AUCs 0.81, 0.85 for 2 visits. Conclusion: The improved spatiotemporal BNA analysis demonstrates high classification accuracy. The BNA analysis method holds promise as a tool for diagnosis, follow-up and drug development associated with different neurological conditions.

  1. Genome-Wide Analysis of Oleosin Gene Family in 22 Tree Species: An Accelerator for Metabolic Engineering of BioFuel Crops and Agrigenomics Industrial Applications?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Heping

    2015-09-01

    Trees contribute to enormous plant oil reserves because many trees contain 50%-80% of oil (triacylglycerols, TAGs) in the fruits and kernels. TAGs accumulate in subcellular structures called oil bodies/droplets, in which TAGs are covered by low-molecular-mass hydrophobic proteins called oleosins (OLEs). The OLEs/TAGs ratio determines the size and shape of intracellular oil bodies. There is a lack of comprehensive sequence analysis and structural information of OLEs among diverse trees. The objectives of this study were to identify OLEs from 22 tree species (e.g., tung tree, tea-oil tree, castor bean), perform genome-wide analysis of OLEs, classify OLEs, identify conserved sequence motifs and amino acid residues, and predict secondary and three-dimensional structures in tree OLEs and OLE subfamilies. Data mining identified 65 OLEs with perfect conservation of the "proline knot" motif (PX5SPX3P) from 19 trees. These OLEs contained >40% hydrophobic amino acid residues. They displayed similar properties and amino acid composition. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis and multiple sequence alignment demonstrated that these proteins could be classified into five OLE subfamilies. There were distinct patterns of sequence conservation among the OLE subfamilies and within individual tree species. Computational modeling indicated that OLEs were composed of at least three α-helixes connected with short coils without any β-strand and that they exhibited distinct 3D structures and ligand binding sites. These analyses provide fundamental information in the similarity and specificity of diverse OLE isoforms within the same subfamily and among the different species, which should facilitate studying the structure-function relationship and identify critical amino acid residues in OLEs for metabolic engineering of tree TAGs.

  2. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  3. Tree biology and dendrochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith; Walter C. Shortle

    1996-01-01

    Dendrochemistry, the interpretation of elemental analysis of dated tree rings, can provide a temporal record of environmental change. Using the dendrochemical record requires an understanding of tree biology. In this review, we pose four questions concerning assumptions that underlie recent dendrochemical research: 1) Does the chemical composition of the wood directly...

  4. Structural Equation Model Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2013-01-01

    In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

  5. Uncovering dynamic fault trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Junges, Sebastian; Guck, Dennis; Katoen, Joost P.; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Fault tree analysis is a widespread industry standard for assessing system reliability. Standard (static) fault trees model the failure behaviour of systems in dependence of their component failures. To overcome their limited expressive power, common dependability patterns, such as spare management,

  6. Delayed Station Blackout Event and Nuclear Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrija Volkanovski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The loss of off-site power (LOOP event occurs when all electrical power to the nuclear power plant from the power grid is lost. Complete failure of both off-site and on-site alternating current (AC power sources is referred to as a station blackout (SBO. Combined LOOP and SBO events are analyzed in this paper. The analysis is done for different time delays between the LOOP and SBO events. Deterministic safety analysis is utilized for the assessment of the plant parameters for different time delays of the SBO event. Obtained plant parameters are used for the assessment of the probabilities of the functional events in the SBO event tree. The results show that the time delay of the SBO after the LOOP leads to a decrease of the core damage frequency (CDF from the SBO event tree. The reduction of the CDF depends on the time delay of the SBO after the LOOP event. The results show the importance of the safety systems to operate after the plant shutdown when the decay heat is large. Small changes of the basic events importance measures are identified with the introduction of the delay of the SBO event.

  7. Microsatellite marker development and Mendelian analysis in the Matschie's tree kangaroo (Dendrolagus matschiei).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Thomas J; Dabek, Lisa; Husband, Thomas P

    2010-01-01

    Matschie's tree kangaroo (Dendrolagus matschiei) is an endangered arboreal macropodid endemic to the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea (PNG). We developed 5 microsatellite markers for D. matschiei, which are the first markers developed for Dendrolagus. We screened 17 additional markers that were developed for other marsupial taxa and identified 3 that were polymorphic in D. matschiei. We estimated allelic and genetic diversity with the set of 8 markers by analyzing 22 D. matschiei from Wasaunon on the Huon Peninsula, PNG. The number of alleles ranged from 2 to 9 and expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.440 to 0.794. We tested for null alleles and Mendelian inheritance by analyzing 19 pairs of D. matschiei parents and offspring from Association of Zoos and Aquariums institutions. Null alleles were not detected and Mendelian inheritance was followed for all 8 markers. We also evaluated the reliability of using the markers to amplify DNA extracted from D. matschiei fecal samples and the ability of the markers to amplify DNA samples from Goodfellow's tree kangaroo (Dendrolagus goodfellowi ssp.), Doria's tree kangaroo (Dendrolagus dorianus ssp.), and Grizzled tree kangaroo (Dendrolagus inustus ssp.). Microsatellite markers can be used to inform management decisions to conserve D. matschiei in captivity and the wild.

  8. AceTree: a tool for visual analysis of Caenorhabditis elegans embryogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araya Carlos L

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The invariant lineage of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has potential as a powerful tool for the description of mutant phenotypes and gene expression patterns. We previously described procedures for the imaging and automatic extraction of the cell lineage from C. elegans embryos. That method uses time-lapse confocal imaging of a strain expressing histone-GFP fusions and a software package, StarryNite, processes the thousands of images and produces output files that describe the location and lineage relationship of each nucleus at each time point. Results We have developed a companion software package, AceTree, which links the images and the annotations using tree representations of the lineage. This facilitates curation and editing of the lineage. AceTree also contains powerful visualization and interpretive tools, such as space filling models and tree-based expression patterning, that can be used to extract biological significance from the data. Conclusion By pairing a fast lineaging program written in C with a user interface program written in Java we have produced a powerful software suite for exploring embryonic development.

  9. Using classification tree analysis to predict oak wilt distribution in Minnesota and Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marla c. Downing; Vernon L. Thomas; Jennifer Juzwik; David N. Appel; Robin M. Reich; Kim Camilli

    2008-01-01

    We developed a methodology and compared results for predicting the potential distribution of Ceratocystis fagacearum (causal agent of oak wilt), in both Anoka County, MN, and Fort Hood, TX. The Potential Distribution of Oak Wilt (PDOW) utilizes a binary classification tree statistical technique that incorporates: geographical information systems (GIS...

  10. A multivariate decision tree analysis of biophysical factors in tropical forest fire occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey S. Ofren; Edward Harvey

    2000-01-01

    A multivariate decision tree model was used to quantify the relative importance of complex hierarchical relationships between biophysical variables and the occurrence of tropical forest fires. The study site is the Huai Kha Kbaeng wildlife sanctuary, a World Heritage Site in northwestern Thailand where annual fires are common and particularly destructive. Thematic...

  11. Urban Crowns: crown analysis software to assist in quantifying urban tree benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew F. Winn; Sang-Mook Lee Bradley; Philip A. Araman

    2010-01-01

    UrbanCrowns is a Microsoft® Windows®-based computer program developed by the U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station. The software assists urban forestry professionals, arborists, and community volunteers in assessing and monitoring the crown characteristics of urban trees (both deciduous and coniferous) using a single side-view digital photograph. Program output...

  12. Dimension projection matrix/tree: interactive subspace visual exploration and analysis of high dimensional data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xiaoru; Ren, Donghao; Wang, Zuchao; Guo, Cong

    2013-12-01

    For high-dimensional data, this work proposes two novel visual exploration methods to gain insights into the data aspect and the dimension aspect of the data. The first is a Dimension Projection Matrix, as an extension of a scatterplot matrix. In the matrix, each row or column represents a group of dimensions, and each cell shows a dimension projection (such as MDS) of the data with the corresponding dimensions. The second is a Dimension Projection Tree, where every node is either a dimension projection plot or a Dimension Projection Matrix. Nodes are connected with links and each child node in the tree covers a subset of the parent node's dimensions or a subset of the parent node's data items. While the tree nodes visualize the subspaces of dimensions or subsets of the data items under exploration, the matrix nodes enable cross-comparison between different combinations of subspaces. Both Dimension Projection Matrix and Dimension Project Tree can be constructed algorithmically through automation, or manually through user interaction. Our implementation enables interactions such as drilling down to explore different levels of the data, merging or splitting the subspaces to adjust the matrix, and applying brushing to select data clusters. Our method enables simultaneously exploring data correlation and dimension correlation for data with high dimensions.

  13. Analysis of the Discourse of Power in Etel Adnan's Play "Like a Christmas Tree"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alashqar, Hossam Mahmoud

    2015-01-01

    This paper seeks to investigate the sources of power in the discourse of an Arab-American writer, Etel Adnan's one act play, "Like a Christmas Tree." The play represents a heated argument between two figures who stand for two different ideologies and who fall within the frame of "binary opposition," transcultural…

  14. Atmospheric pollution in an urban environment by tree bark biomonitoring--part I: trace element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guéguen, Florence; Stille, Peter; Lahd Geagea, Majdi; Boutin, René

    2012-03-01

    Tree bark has been shown to be a useful biomonitor of past air quality because it accumulates atmospheric particulate matter (PM) in its outermost structure. Trace element concentrations of tree bark of more than 73 trees allow to elucidate the impact of past atmospheric pollution on the urban environment of the cities of Strasbourg and Kehl in the Rhine Valley. Compared to the upper continental crust (UCC) tree barks are strongly enriched in Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb. To assess the degree of pollution of the different sites in the cities, a geoaccumulation index I(geo) was applied. Global pollution by V, Ni, Cr, Sb, Sn and Pb was observed in barks sampled close to traffic axes. Cr, Mo, Cd pollution principally occurred in the industrial area. A total geoaccumulation index I(GEO-tot) was defined; it is based on the total of the investigated elements and allows to evaluate the global pollution of the studied environment by assembling the I(geo) indices on a pollution map. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysis and comparison of nonlinear tree height prediction strategies for Douglas-fir forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Temesgen; V.J. Monleon; D.W. Hann

    2008-01-01

    Using an extensive Douglas-fir data set from southwest Oregon, we examined the (I) performance and suitability of selected prediction strategies, (2) contribution of relative position and stand-density measures in improving tree height (h) prediction values, and (3) effect of different subsampling designs to fill in missing h values in a new stand using a regional...

  16. Spatial and temporal analysis of the anthropogenic effects on local diversity of forest trees

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Polyakov, Maksym; Majumdar, Indrajit; Teeter, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    ... variety of goods and services to humans. Tree diversity is a key component of forest ecosystem biodiversity and this is one of the reasons why biodiversity has emerged as a major objective of forest management and conservation since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Forest diversity is an important criterion of sustainable for...

  17. Simple and difficult mathematics in children: A min