WorldWideScience

Sample records for evenements meteorologiques extremes

  1. Extreme environments select for reproductive assurance: evidence from evening primroses (Oenothera).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Theiss, Kathryn E; Cranston, Karen; Holsinger, Kent E; Donoghue, Michael J

    2011-07-01

    Competing evolutionary forces shape plant breeding systems (e.g. inbreeding depression, reproductive assurance). Which of these forces prevails in a given population or species is predicted to depend upon such factors as life history, ecological conditions, and geographical context. Here, we examined two such predictions: that self-compatibility should be associated with the annual life history or extreme climatic conditions. We analyzed data from a clade of plants remarkable for variation in breeding system, life history and climatic conditions (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia, Onagraceae). We used a phylogenetic comparative approach and Bayesian or hybrid Bayesian tests to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. Geographic information system (GIS)-based climate data and ecological niche modeling allowed us to quantify climatic conditions. Breeding system and reproductive life span are not correlated in Anogra and Kleinia. Instead, self-compatibility is associated with the extremes of temperature in the coldest part of the year and precipitation in the driest part of the year. In the 60 yr since this pattern was anticipated, this is the first demonstration of a relationship between the evolution of self-compatibility and climatic extremes. We discuss possible explanations for this pattern and possible implications with respect to anthropogenic climate change. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  2. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  3. Instability in near-horizon geometries of even-dimensional Myers–Perry black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanahashi, Norihiro; Murata, Keiju

    2012-01-01

    We study the gravitational, electromagnetic and scalar field perturbations on the near-horizon geometries of the even-dimensional extremal Myers–Perry black holes. By dimensional reduction, the perturbation equations are reduced to effective equations of motion in AdS 2 . We find that some modes in the gravitational perturbations violate the Breitenlöhner–Freedman bound in AdS 2 . This result suggests that the even-dimensional (near-)extremal Myers–Perry black holes are unstable against gravitational perturbations. We also discuss implications of our results to the Kerr–CFT correspondence. (paper)

  4. Management of the mangled extremity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prasarn, Mark L.; Helfet, David L.; Kloen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The management of a mangled extremity continues to be a matter of debate. With modern advances in trauma resuscitation, microvascular tissue transfer, and fracture fixation, severe traumatic extremity injuries that would historically have been amputated are often salvaged. Even if preserving a

  5. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-07-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

  6. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A.; Oksuzyan, Anna; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James W.

    2018-01-01

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men. Gender differences in infant mortality contributed the most to the gender gap in life expectancy, indicating that newborn girls were able to survive extreme mortality hazards better than newborn boys. Our results confirm the ubiquity of a female survival advantage even when mortality is extraordinarily high. The hypothesis that the survival advantage of women has fundamental biological underpinnings is supported by the fact that under very harsh conditions females survive better than males even at infant ages when behavioral and social differences may be minimal or favor males. Our findings also indicate that the female advantage differs across environments and is modulated by social factors. PMID:29311321

  7. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  8. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James W

    2018-01-23

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men. Gender differences in infant mortality contributed the most to the gender gap in life expectancy, indicating that newborn girls were able to survive extreme mortality hazards better than newborn boys. Our results confirm the ubiquity of a female survival advantage even when mortality is extraordinarily high. The hypothesis that the survival advantage of women has fundamental biological underpinnings is supported by the fact that under very harsh conditions females survive better than males even at infant ages when behavioral and social differences may be minimal or favor males. Our findings also indicate that the female advantage differs across environments and is modulated by social factors. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  9. Analyse de l'integration d'un systeme de production photovoltaique ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    29 janv. 2009 ... performances dependent des caracteristiques du site ... a la diminution du cout du generateur photovoltaique et a la gestion ... assurant a travers une action de controle le ... donnees meteorologiques du site de mesure est.

  10. Infection in the ischemic lower extremity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, D E; Marek, J M; Langsfeld, M

    1998-06-01

    Infections in the lower extremity of the patient with ischemia can cover a broad spectrum of different diseases. An understanding of the particular pathophysiologic circumstances in the ischemic extremity can be of great value in understanding the natural history of the disease and the potential complications that may occur. Optimizing blood flow to the extremity by using revascularization techniques is important for any patient with an ischemic lower extremity complicated by infection or ulceration. Infections in the ischemic lower extremity require local débridement and systemic antibiotics. For severe infections, such as necrotizing fasciitis or the fetid foot, more extensive local débridement and even amputation may be required. Fundamentals of managing prosthetic graft infection require removing the infected prosthesis, local wound débridement, and systemic antibiotics while attempting to preserve viability of the lower extremity using autogenous graft reconstruction.

  11. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

    2016-12-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  12. Alpha Decay of Even-Even Superheavy Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudih, M.R.; Hamza, Y.; Fellah, M.; Allal, N.H.; Fellah, M.; Allal, N.H.

    2011-01-01

    Alpha decay properties of even-even superheavy nuclei with 112.Z.120 have been investigated using the Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov approach. The method is based on the SkP Skyrme interaction and the Lipkin-Nogami prescription for treating the pairing correlations. The alpha decay energies are extracted from the binding energies and then used for the calculation of the decay half-lives using a formula similar to that of Viola-Seaborg. The parameters of the formula were obtained through a least square fit to even-even heavy nuclei taken from the tables of Audi- Wapstra and some more recent references. The results are compared with other theoretical evaluations.

  13. Detecting change-points in extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Dupuis, D. J.; Sun, Ying; Wang, Huixia Judy

    2015-01-01

    Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change

  14. Can even-order laser harmonics exhibited by Bohmian trajectories in symmetric potentials be observed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peatross, J; Johansen, J

    2014-01-13

    Strong-field laser-atom interactions provide extreme conditions that may be useful for investigating the de Broglie-Bohm quantum interpretation. Bohmian trajectories representing bound electrons in individual atoms exhibit both even and odd harmonic motion when subjected to a strong external laser field. The phases of the even harmonics depend on the random initial positions of the trajectories within the wave function, making the even harmonics incoherent. In contrast, the phases of odd harmonics remain for the most part coherent regardless of initial position. Under the conjecture that a Bohmian point particle plays the role of emitter, this suggests an experiment to determine whether both even and odd harmonics are produced at the atomic level. Estimates suggest that incoherent emission of even harmonics may be detectable out the side of an intense laser focus interacting with a large number of atoms.

  15. Social media as a marketing tool for extreme-sport oriented companies

    OpenAIRE

    Korosuo, Saku

    2013-01-01

    Marketing in social media has been studied extensively in recent years, but not specifically for extreme-sport oriented companies. Even though most of the extreme-oriented companies are using social media for marketing, only a few pay special attention to its risks and possibilities. The purpose of this study is to identify extreme-sport oriented companies' practices to use social media as a marketing tool. I interviewed eight extreme- oriented companies and athletes. In addition to interview...

  16. Vibrational collective model for spheric even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, M.T.F. da.

    1985-01-01

    A review is made on the evidences of collective motions in spherical even-even nuclei. The several multipole transitions occuring in such a nuclei are discussed. Some hypothesis which are necessary in order to build-up the model are presented. (L.C.) [pt

  17. Prospect for extreme field science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tajima, T. [Ludwig Maximilian Univ. and Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics, Garching (Germany); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Kyoto and KEK, Tsukuba (Japan)

    2009-11-15

    The kind of laser extreme light infrastructure (ELI) provides will usher in a class of experiments we have only dreamed of for years. The characteristics that ELI brings in include: the highest intensity ever, large fluence, and relatively high repetition rate. A personal view of the author on the prospect of harnessing this unprecedented opportunity for advancing science of extreme fields is presented. The first characteristic of ELI, its intensity, will allow us to access, as many have stressed already, extreme fields that hover around the Schwinger field or at the very least the neighboring fields in which vacuum begins to behave as a nonlinear medium. In this sense, we are seriously probing the 'material' property of vacuum and thus the property that theory of relativity itself described and will entail. We will probe both special theory and general theory of relativity in regimes that have been never tested so far. We may see a glimpse into the reach of relativity or even its breakdown in some extreme regimes. We will learn Einstein and may even go beyond Einstein, if our journey is led. Laser-driven acceleration both by the laser field itself and by the wakefield that is triggered in a plasma is huge. Energies, if not luminosity, we can access, may be unprecedented going far beyond TeV. The nice thing about ELI is that it has relatively high repetition rate and average fluence as compared with other extreme lasers. This high fluence can be a key element that leads to applications to high energy physics, such as gamma-gamma collider driver experiment, and some gamma ray experiments that may be relevant in the frontier of photo-nuclear physics, and atomic energy applications. Needless to say, high fluence is one of most important features that industrial and medical applications may need. If we are lucky, we may see a door opens at the frontier of novel physics that may not be available by any other means. (authors)

  18. Detecting change-points in extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Dupuis, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change-points in the tail of multiple time series data. In addition, we adapt existing tail change-point detection methods to our specific problem and conduct a thorough comparison of different methods in terms of performance on the estimation of change-points and computational time. We also examine three locations on the U.S. northeast coast and demonstrate that the methods are useful for identifying changes in seasonally extreme warm temperatures.

  19. Excited bands in even-even rare-earth nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vargas, Carlos E.; Hirsch, Jorge G.

    2004-01-01

    The energetics of states belonging to normal parity bands in even-even dysprosium isotopes, and their B(E2) transition strengths, are studied using an extended pseudo-SU(3) shell model. States with pseudospin 1 are added to the standard pseudospin 0 space, allowing for a proper description of known excited normal parity bands

  20. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  1. Search for α + core states in even-even Cr isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza, M.A. [Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Fisica, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia de Sao Paulo, Departamento de Mecanica, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Miyake, H. [Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Fisica, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-07-15

    The α + core structure is investigated in even-even Cr isotopes from the viewpoint of the local potential model. The comparison of Q{sub α}/A values for even-even Cr isotopes and even-even A = 46, 54, 56, 58 isobars indicates that {sup 46}Cr and {sup 54}Cr are the most favorable even-even Cr isotopes for the α + core configuration. The ground state bands of the two Cr isotopes are calculated through a local α + core potential containing a nuclear term with (1 + Gaussian) x (W.S. + W.S.{sup 3}) shape. The calculated spectra give a very good description of most experimental {sup 46}Cr and {sup 54}Cr levels, including the 0{sup +} bandheads. The reduced α-widths, rms intercluster separations and B(E2) transition rates are determined for the ground state bands. The calculations reproduce the order of magnitude of the available experimental B(E2) values without using effective charges, indicate that the low-spin members of the ground state bands present a stronger α-cluster character, and point out that the {sup 46}Cr ground state band has a significant degree of α-clustering in comparison with {sup 44}Ti. The volume integral per nucleon pair and rms radius obtained for the α + {sup 50}Ti potential are consistent with those reported previously in the analysis of α elastic scattering on {sup 50}Ti. (orig.)

  2. Anisotropy of favoured alpha transitions producing even-even deformed nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tavares, O.A.P.

    1997-05-01

    The anisotropy in favoured alpha transitions which produce even-even deformed nuclei is discussed. A simple, Gamow's-like model which takes into account the quadrupole deformation of the product nucleus has been formulated to calculate the alpha decay half-life. It is assumed that before tunneling into a purely Coulomb potential barrier the two-body system oscillated isotropically, thus giving rise to an equivalent, average preferential polar direction θ 0 (referred to the symmetry axis of the ellipsoidal shape of the product nucleus) for alpha emission in favoured alpha transitions of even-even nuclei. (author)

  3. Collective description of magnetic properties of even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruhn, V.

    1975-01-01

    The generalized collective model is modified by introducing a number of quadrupole deformations for protons and neutrons. The coupling potential is described by physical approaches, and the overall model is applied to even-even nuclei. (WL) [de

  4. Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

    2017-07-01

    We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

  5. Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

  6. Survival in extreme environments – on the current knowledge of adaptations in tardigrades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møbjerg, Nadja; Halberg, Kenneth Agerlin; Jørgensen, Aslak

    2011-01-01

    of mechanisms explaining this phenomenon is lacking. Importantly, recent research has shown that tardigrades even in their active states may be extremely tolerant to environmental stress, handling extreme levels of ionizing radiation, large fluctuation in external salinity and avoiding freezing by supercooling...

  7. Quartetting in even-even and odd-odd N=Z nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambataro, M.; Sandulescu, N.

    2018-02-01

    We report on a microscopic description of even-even N = Z nuclei in a formalism of quartets. Quartets are four-body correlated structures characterized by isospin T and angular momentum J. We show that the ground state correlations induced by a realistic shell model interaction can be well accounted for in terms of a restricted set of T = 0 low-J quartets, the J = 0 one playing by far a leading role among them. A conceptually similar description of odd-odd self-conjugate nuclei is given in terms of two distinct families of building blocks, one formed by the same T = 0 quartets employed for the even-even systems and the other by collective pairs with either T = 0 or T = 1. Some applications of this formalism are discussed for nuclei in the sd shell.

  8. Microscopic description of average level spacing in even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huong, Le Thi Quynh; Hung, Nguyen Quang; Phuc, Le Tan

    2017-01-01

    A microscopic theoretical approach to the average level spacing at the neutron binding energy in even-even nuclei is proposed. The approach is derived based on the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) theory at finite temperature and projection M of the total angular momentum J , which is often used to describe the superfluid properties of hot rotating nuclei. The exact relation of the J -dependent total level density to the M -dependent state densities, based on which the average level spacing is calculated, was employed. The numerical calculations carried out for several even-even nuclei have shown that in order to reproduce the experimental average level spacing, the M -dependent pairing gaps as well as the exact relation of the J -dependent total level density formula should be simultaneously used. (paper)

  9. Rotational-vibrational states of nonaxial deformable even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porodzinskii, Yu.V.; Sukhovitskii, E.Sh.

    1991-01-01

    The rotational-vibrational excitations of nonaxial even-even nuclei are studied on the basis of a Hamiltonian operator with five dynamical variables. Explicit forms of the wave functions and energies of the rotational-vibrational excitations of such nuclei are obtained. The experimental energies of excited positive-parity states of the 238 U nucleus and those calculated in terms of the model discussed in the article are compared

  10. Vascularized nerve grafts for lower extremity nerve reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzis, Julia K; Kostopoulos, Vasileios K

    2010-02-01

    Vascularized nerve grafts (VNG) were introduced in 1976 but since then, there have been no reports of their usage in lower extremity reconstruction systematically. The factors influencing outcomes as well as a comparison with conventional nerve grafts will be presented.Since 1981, 14 lower extremity nerve injuries in 12 patients have been reconstructed with VNG. Common peroneal nerve was injured in 12 and posterior tibial nerve in 5 patients. The level of the injury was at the knee or thigh. Twelve sural nerves were used as VNG with or without concomitant vascularized posterior calf fascia.All patients regained improved sensibility and adequate posterior tibial nerve function. For common peroneal nerve reconstructions, all patients with denervation time less than 6 months regained muscle strength of grade at least 4, even when long grafts were used for defects of 20 cm or more. Late cases, yielded inadequate muscle function even with the use of VNG.Denervation time of 6 months or less was critical for reconstruction with vascularized nerve graft. Not only the results were statistically significant compared with late cases, but also all early operated patients achieved excellent results. VNG are strongly recommended in traction avulsion injuries of the lower extremity with lengthy nerve damage.

  11. Collective states of nonspherical deformable even--even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tartakovskii, V.K.

    1989-01-01

    A more correct method, as compared with some earlier studies, of finding the wave functions and corresponding energies of longitudinal quadrupole vibrations of nonspherical even--even nuclei is proposed. The wave functions and energies of collective motions in nuclei have been obtained in explicit form for a number of dependences of the potential energy of longitudinal vibrations V(β), including the dependence V(β), not previously used, of the most general form. Explicit dependences of the potential energy of transverse vibrations and the corresponding wave functions and eigenvalues for nuclear states with zero spins are proposed

  12. Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-06-19

    Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.

  13. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

    2013-01-01

    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  14. Evening Primrose Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... U V W X Y Z Evening Primrose Oil Share: On This Page Background How Much Do ... fact sheet provides basic information about evening primrose oil—common names, usefulness and safety, and resources for ...

  15. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  16. Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2015-01-01

    Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

  17. Literature review on wearable systems in upper extremity rehabilitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Q.; Chen, Wei; Markopoulos, P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports a structured literature survey of research in wearable technology for upper-extremity rehabilitation, e.g., after stroke, spinal cord injury, for multiple sclerosis patients or even children with cerebral palsy. A keyword based search returned 61 papers relating to this topic.

  18. The problem of defining contemporary right-wing extremism in political theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorić Marija

    2016-01-01

    every act of extremism does not lead towards a higher level of political violence (i.e. towards terrorism. Even in the terms of legal sanctioning, it is much easier to incriminate terrorism in comparison to extremism. The Serbian criminal legislation envisages relevant punishment for committing an act of terrorism, without even mentioning extremism, which implies that there is no penalty prescribed for committing an act of extremism. Despite numerous academic and administrative definitions on the concept of extremism, there is still a lack of a balanced approach to defining right-wing extremism, which is also largely conditioned by political definitions. The most prominent problem in addressing the social phenomena such as right-wing extremism lies in the fact that these social phenomena are dynamic and, in order to be analysed in a scientifically objective manner, they must be examined in the specific temporal, spatial and socio-political context.

  19. Communicating adaptation with emotions : the role of intense experiences for concern about extreme weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Botzen, W.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among

  20. Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

    2013-01-01

    The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

  1. Typologies of extreme longevity myths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Robert D; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980-2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

  2. Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert D. Young

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance, Shangri-La Myth (geographic, Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

  3. Extreme Nonlinear Optics An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Wegener, Martin

    2005-01-01

    Following the birth of the laser in 1960, the field of "nonlinear optics" rapidly emerged. Today, laser intensities and pulse durations are readily available, for which the concepts and approximations of traditional nonlinear optics no longer apply. In this regime of "extreme nonlinear optics," a large variety of novel and unusual effects arise, for example frequency doubling in inversion symmetric materials or high-harmonic generation in gases, which can lead to attosecond electromagnetic pulses or pulse trains. Other examples of "extreme nonlinear optics" cover diverse areas such as solid-state physics, atomic physics, relativistic free electrons in a vacuum and even the vacuum itself. This book starts with an introduction to the field based primarily on extensions of two famous textbook examples, namely the Lorentz oscillator model and the Drude model. Here the level of sophistication should be accessible to any undergraduate physics student. Many graphical illustrations and examples are given. The followi...

  4. Correlation dimension and phase space contraction via extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faranda, Davide; Vaienti, Sandro

    2018-04-01

    We show how to obtain theoretical and numerical estimates of correlation dimension and phase space contraction by using the extreme value theory. The maxima of suitable observables sampled along the trajectory of a chaotic dynamical system converge asymptotically to classical extreme value laws where: (i) the inverse of the scale parameter gives the correlation dimension and (ii) the extremal index is associated with the rate of phase space contraction for backward iteration, which in dimension 1 and 2, is closely related to the positive Lyapunov exponent and in higher dimensions is related to the metric entropy. We call it the Dynamical Extremal Index. Numerical estimates are straightforward to obtain as they imply just a simple fit to a univariate distribution. Numerical tests range from low dimensional maps, to generalized Henon maps and climate data. The estimates of the indicators are particularly robust even with relatively short time series.

  5. Spin-dependent γ softness or triaxiality in even-even 132-138Nd nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Qing-Zhen; Wang, Hua-Lei; Yang, Qiong; Liu, Min-Liang

    2015-02-01

    The properties of γ instability in rapidly rotating even-even 132-138Nd isotopes have been investigated using the pairing-deformation self-consistent total-Routhian-surface calculations in a deformation space of (β2, γ, β4). It is found that even-even 134-138Nd nuclei exhibit triaxiality in both ground and excited states, even up to high-spin states. The lightest isotope possesses a well-deformed prolate shape without a γ deformation component. The current numerical results are compared with previous calculations and available observables such as quadrupole deformation β2 and the feature of γ-band levels, showing basically a general agreement with the observed trend of γ correlations (e.g. the pattern of the odd-even energy staggering of the γ band). The existing differences between theory and experiment are analyzed and discussed briefly. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (10805040,11175217), Foundation and Advanced Technology Research Program of Henan Province(132300410125) and S & T Research Key Program of Henan Province Education Department (13A140667)

  6. Bias and spread in extreme value theory measurements of probability of error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. G.

    1972-01-01

    Extreme value theory is examined to explain the cause of the bias and spread in performance of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high data reliability requirements, for cases in which underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian. Experimental verification is presented and procedures that minimize these effects are suggested. Even under these conditions, however, extreme value theory test results are not particularly more significant than bit error rate tests.

  7. Global set of quadrupole deformation parameters for even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raman, S.; Nestor, C.W. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A compilation of experimental results has been completed for the reduced electric quadrupole transition probability [B(E2)up arrow] between the 0 + ground state and the first 2 + state in even-even nuclei. This compilation together with certain simple relationships noted by other authors can be used to make reasonable predictions of unmeasured B(E2)up arrow values. The quadrupole deformation parameter β 2 immediately follows, because β 2 is proportional to [B(E2)up arrow]/sup 1/2/. 8 refs., 7 figs

  8. Extreme simplification and rendering of point sets using algebraic multigrid

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, D.; Telea, A.C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a novel approach for extreme simplification of point set models, in the context of real-time rendering. Point sets are often rendered using simple point primitives, such as oriented discs. However, this requires using many primitives to render even moderately simple shapes. Often, one

  9. Black breast cancer survivors experience greater upper extremity disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Lorraine T; DeMichele, Angela; LeBlanc, Mously; Stephens-Shields, Alisa; Li, Susan Q; Colameco, Chris; Coursey, Morgan; Mao, Jun J

    2015-11-01

    Over one-third of breast cancer survivors experience upper extremity disability. Black women present with factors associated with greater upper extremity disability, including: increased body mass index (BMI), more advanced disease stage at diagnosis, and varying treatment type compared with Whites. No prior research has evaluated the relationship between race and upper extremity disability using validated tools and controlling for these factors. Data were drawn from a survey study among 610 women with stage I-III hormone receptor positive breast cancer. The disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (QuickDASH) is an 11-item self-administered questionnaire that has been validated for breast cancer survivors to assess global upper extremity function over the past 7 days. Linear regression and mediation analysis estimated the relationships between race, BMI and QuickDASH score, adjusting for demographics and treatment types. Black women (n = 98) had 7.3 points higher average QuickDASH scores than White (n = 512) women (p disability by 40 %. Even several years post-treatment, Black breast cancer survivors had greater upper extremity disability, which was partially mediated by higher BMIs. Close monitoring of high BMI Black women may be an important step in reducing disparities in cancer survivorship. More research is needed on the relationship between race, BMI, and upper extremity disability.

  10. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  11. Extreme Achalasia Presenting as Anorexia Nervosa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Goldsmith

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Achalasia may lead to cachexia if not diagnosed in an early stage. Surgery in cachectic patients is hazardous and complications may result in a protracted recovery or even death. Different treatment options have been described. In this paper, we report a stepwise surgical laparoscopic approach which appears to be safe and effective. Methods. Over a one-year period, a patient with a body mass index (BMI below 17 being treated for anorexia nervosa was referred with dysphagia. Because of the extreme cachexia, a laparoscopic feeding jejunostomy (LFJ was fashioned to enable long-term home enteral feeding. The patient underwent a laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM when the BMI was normal. Results. The patient recovered well following this stepwise approach. Conclusion. Patients with advanced achalasia usually present with extreme weight loss. In this small group of patients, a period of home enteral nutrition (HEN via a laparoscopically placed feeding jejunostomy allows weight gain prior to safe definitive surgery.

  12. Isotopic yield in cold binary fission of even-even 230-244U isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyriac, Annu; Krishnan, Sreejith; Santhosh, K.P.

    2017-01-01

    The binary fission of even-even 230-244 U isotopes has been studied using the concept of cold reaction valley which was introduced in relation to the structure of minima in the so called driving potential

  13. Modeling spatial processes with unknown extremal dependence class

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël G.

    2017-03-17

    Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models that exhibit a property known as asymptotic independence. However, weakening dependence does not automatically imply asymptotic independence, and whether the process is truly asymptotically (in)dependent is usually far from clear. The distinction is key as it can have a large impact upon extrapolation, i.e., the estimated probabilities of events more extreme than those observed. In this work, we present a single spatial model that is able to capture both dependence classes in a parsimonious manner, and with a smooth transition between the two cases. The model covers a wide range of possibilities from asymptotic independence through to complete dependence, and permits weakening dependence of extremes even under asymptotic dependence. Censored likelihood-based inference for the implied copula is feasible in moderate dimensions due to closed-form margins. The model is applied to oceanographic datasets with ambiguous true limiting dependence structure.

  14. Extreme-Ultraviolet Vortices from a Free-Electron Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Primož Rebernik Ribič

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Extreme-ultraviolet vortices may be exploited to steer the magnetic properties of nanoparticles, increase the resolution in microscopy, and gain insight into local symmetry and chirality of a material; they might even be used to increase the bandwidth in long-distance space communications. However, in contrast to the generation of vortex beams in the infrared and visible spectral regions, production of intense, extreme-ultraviolet and x-ray optical vortices still remains a challenge. Here, we present an in-situ and an ex-situ technique for generating intense, femtosecond, coherent optical vortices at a free-electron laser in the extreme ultraviolet. The first method takes advantage of nonlinear harmonic generation in a helical undulator, producing vortex beams at the second harmonic without the need for additional optical elements, while the latter one relies on the use of a spiral zone plate to generate a focused, micron-size optical vortex with a peak intensity approaching 10^{14}  W/cm^{2}, paving the way to nonlinear optical experiments with vortex beams at short wavelengths.

  15. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work...... investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  16. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  17. The Relation between Evenness and Diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lou Jost

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Contrary to common belief, decomposition of diversity into independent richness and evenness components is mathematically impossible. However, richness can be decomposed into independent diversity and evenness or inequality components. The evenness or inequality component derived in this way is connected to most of the common measures of evenness and inequality in ecology and economics. This perspective justifies the derivation of measures of relative evenness, which give the amount of evenness relative to the maximum and minimum possible for a given richness. Pielou’s [1] evenness measure J is shown to be such a measure.

  18. Calculation of ground state deformation of even-even rare-earth nuclei in sdg interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Baolin

    1995-01-01

    The analytical calculation of the nuclear ground state deformation of the even-even isotopes in the rare-earth region is given by utilizing the intrinsic states of the sdg interacting boson model. It is compared systematically with the reported theoretical and experimental results. It is shown that the sdg interacting boson model is a reasonable scheme for the description of even-even nuclei deformation

  19. Present state and prospect of systematics for the properties of even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yumin; Gu Jinnan

    1993-01-01

    The study of systematics for the properties of even-even nuclei, which is a new research field in nuclei structure, is reviewed. The primary results, including systematic analysis of energy spectra and electromagnetic transition, and the empirical law extracted from experimental data, are presented. It is expected that there will be new developments in the next few years in this fields

  20. Low-spin identical bands in neighboring odd-A and even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baktash, C.; Winchell, D.F.; Garrett, J.D.; Smith, A.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive study of odd-A rotational bands in normally deformed rare-earth nuclei indicates that a large number of seniority-one configurations (21% for odd-Z nuclei) at low spin have moments of inertia nearly identical to that of the seniority-zero configuration of the neighboring even-even nucleus with one less nucleon. It is difficult to reconcile these results with conventional models of nuclear pair correlation, which predict variations of about 15% in the moments of inertia of configurations differing by one unit in seniority

  1. Advanced Dynamically Adaptive Algorithms for Stochastic Simulations on Extreme Scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiu, Dongbin [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2017-03-03

    The focus of the project is the development of mathematical methods and high-performance computational tools for stochastic simulations, with a particular emphasis on computations on extreme scales. The core of the project revolves around the design of highly efficient and scalable numerical algorithms that can adaptively and accurately, in high dimensional spaces, resolve stochastic problems with limited smoothness, even containing discontinuities.

  2. Quasi-SU(3) truncation scheme for even-even sd-shell nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vargas, C.E.; Hirsch, J.G.; Draayer, J.P.

    2001-01-01

    The quasi-SU(3) symmetry was uncovered in full pf and sdg shell-model calculations for both even-even and odd-even nuclei. It manifests itself through a dominance of single-particle and quadrupole-quadrupole terms in a Hamiltonian used to describe well-deformed nuclei. A practical consequence of the quasi-SU(3) symmetry is an efficient basis truncation scheme. In [C.E. Vargas et al., Phys. Rev. C 58 (1998) 1488] it is shown that when this type of Hamiltonian is diagonalized in an SU(3) basis, only a few irreducible representations (irreps) of SU(3) are needed to describe the yrast band, the leading S=0 irrep augmented with the leading S=1 irreps in the proton and neutron subspaces. In the present article the quasi-SU(3) truncation scheme is used, in conjunction with a 'realistic but schematic' Hamiltonian that includes the most important multipole terms, to describe the energy spectra and B(E2) transition strengths of 20,22 Ne, 24 Mg and 28 Si. The effect of the size of the Hilbert space on both sets of observables is discussed, as well as the structure of the yrast band and the importance of the various terms in the Hamiltonian. The limitations of the model are explicitly discussed

  3. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  4. Low-spin identical bands in neighboring odd-A and even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baktash, C.; Winchell, D.F.; Garrett, J.D.; Smith, A.

    1993-01-01

    A comprehensive study of odd-A rotational bands in normally deformed rare-earth nuclei indicates that a large number of seniority-one configurations (21 % for odd-Z nuclei) at low spin have moments of inertia nearly identical to that of the seniority-zero configuration of the neighboring even-even nucleus with one less nucleon. It is difficult to reconcile these results with conventional models of nuclear pair correlation, which predict variations of about 15% in the moments of inertia of configurations differing by one unit in seniority. (orig.)

  5. Extreme events in the Mediterranean area: A mixed deterministic-statistical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Speranza, A.; Tartaglione, N.

    2006-01-01

    Statistical inference suffers for severe limitations when applied to extreme meteo-climatic events. A fundamental theorem proposes a constructive theory for a universal distribution law (the Generalized Extreme Value distribution) of extremes. Use of this theorem and of its derivations is nowadays quite common. However, when applying it, the selected events should be real extremes. In practical applications a major source of errors is the fact that there is no strict criterion for selecting extremes and, in order to fatten the statistical sample very mild selection criteria are often used. The theorem in question applies to stationary processes. When a trend is introduced, inference becomes even more problematic. Experience shows that any available a priori knowledge concerning the system can play a fundamental role in the analysis, in particular if it lowers the dimensionality of the parameter space to be explored. The inference procedures serve, then, the purpose of testing the reliability of inductive hypothesis, rather than proving them. Within the above general context, analysis of the hypothesis that the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean area may be changing is proposed. The analysis is based on a combined deterministic-statistical approach: dynamical analysis of intense perturbations is combined with statistical techniques in order to try to formulate the problem in such a way that meaningful conclusion may be achieved

  6. GCMs-based spatiotemporal evolution of climate extremes during the 21st century in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, Vijay P.

    2013-10-01

    Changes in the hydrological cycle being caused by human-induced global warming are triggering variations in observed spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes, and hence in droughts and floods across China. Evaluation of future climate extremes based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs will be of great importance in scientific management of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, five precipitation extreme and five temperature extreme indices are defined. This study analyzes daily precipitation and temperature data for 1960-2005 from 529 stations in China and outputs of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). Downscaling methods, based on QQ-plot and transfer functions, are used to downscale GCMs outputs to the site scale. Performances of GCMs in simulating climate extremes were evaluated using the Taylor diagram. Results showed that: (1) the multimodel CMIP5 ensemble performs the best in simulating observed extreme conditions; (2) precipitation processes are intensifying with increased frequency and intensity across entire China. The southwest China, however, is dominated by lengthening maximum consecutive dry days and also more heavy precipitation extremes; (3) warming processes continue with increasing warm nights, decreasing frost days, and lengthening heat waves during the 21st century; (4) changes in precipitation and temperature extremes exhibit larger changing magnitudes under RCP85 scenario; (5) for the evolution of changes in extremes, in most cases, the spatial pattern keeps the same, even though changing rates vary. In some cases, area with specific changing properties extends or shrinks gradually. The directions of trends may alter during the evolution; and (6) changes under RCP85 become more and more pronounced as time elapses. Under the peak-and-decline RCP26, changes in some cases do not decrease correspondingly during 2070-2099 even though the

  7. ActiWiz – a tool to reduce activation levels in CERN’s accelerators even further

    CERN Multimedia

    HSE Unit

    2014-01-01

    CERN operates accelerators to deliver high-energy particle beams for physics. This requires extremely precise beam steering, and tremendous efforts are invested to keep beam losses at the absolute minimum.   However, it is inevitable that some particles escape from their ideal path and, furthermore, the beam is sometimes even intentionally directed to hit equipment like targets or collimators. This results in the creation of radioactive nuclei in the matter with which the beam interacts. The physical processes driving this phenomenon are quite complex and the level of activation depends on a multitude of parameters like the location of the material with respect to the beam loss, the length of the irradiation period and potentially the chemical composition of the irradiated material. Sometimes the presence of chemical elements that are found only in traces, even fractions of weight-percent, can cause considerable differences when it comes to the beam-impact-driven production of radioactivity. The...

  8. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  9. Quasi-SU(3) truncation scheme for even-even sd-shell nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargas, C.E. E-mail: cvargas@fis.cinvestav.mx; Hirsch, J.G. E-mail: hirsch@nuclecu.unam.mx; Draayer, J.P. E-mail: draayer@lsu.edu

    2001-07-30

    The quasi-SU(3) symmetry was uncovered in full pf and sdg shell-model calculations for both even-even and odd-even nuclei. It manifests itself through a dominance of single-particle and quadrupole-quadrupole terms in a Hamiltonian used to describe well-deformed nuclei. A practical consequence of the quasi-SU(3) symmetry is an efficient basis truncation scheme. In [C.E. Vargas et al., Phys. Rev. C 58 (1998) 1488] it is shown that when this type of Hamiltonian is diagonalized in an SU(3) basis, only a few irreducible representations (irreps) of SU(3) are needed to describe the yrast band, the leading S=0 irrep augmented with the leading S=1 irreps in the proton and neutron subspaces. In the present article the quasi-SU(3) truncation scheme is used, in conjunction with a 'realistic but schematic' Hamiltonian that includes the most important multipole terms, to describe the energy spectra and B(E2) transition strengths of {sup 20,22}Ne, {sup 24}Mg and {sup 28}Si. The effect of the size of the Hilbert space on both sets of observables is discussed, as well as the structure of the yrast band and the importance of the various terms in the Hamiltonian. The limitations of the model are explicitly discussed.

  10. Clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Il Bong; Dong, Kyung Rae [Dept. Radiological Technology, Gwangju Health University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Eun Hoe [Dept. Radiological Science, Cheongju University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-15

    The purpose of this study was to assess clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans. From January to July 2016, 30 patients (mean age, 68) were studied with lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT. 128 channel multi-detector row CT scans were acquired with a CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens medical solution, Germany) of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA. Acquired images were reconstructed with 3D workstation (Leonardo, Siemens, Germany). Site of lower extremity arterial occlusive and stenosis lesions were detected superficial femoral artery 36.6%, popliteal artery 23.4%, external iliac artery 16.7%, common femoral artery 13.3%, peroneal artery 10%. The mean total DLP comparison of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA, 650 mGy-cm and 675 mGy-cm, respectively. Lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA were realized that were never be two examination that were exactly the same legions. Future through the development of lower extremity perfusion CT soft ware programs suggest possible clinical applications.

  11. Upslope deposition of extremely distal turbidites: An example from the Tiburon Rise, west-central Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James; Beck, Christian; Ogawa, Yujiro

    1989-11-01

    Terrigenous silt and sand turbidites recovered from the crest of the Tiburon Rise in the west-central Atlantic represent an unprecedented example of upslope turbidite deposition in an extremely distal setting. These Eocene-Oligocene beds, which were derived from South America more than 1000 km to the southeast, were probably deposited by extremely thick (>1500 m) turbidity currents that flowed parallel to the southern margin of the rise. We suggest that flow thickness was the dominant control on deposition of these beds, rather than true upslope flow. This interpretation points out the importance of local bathymetry on the behavior of even extremely distal turbidity currents.

  12. Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

    2017-02-01

    In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

  13. Triggering radiation alarm at security checks. Patients should be informed even after diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Barbara; Neumann, Irmgard; Havlik, Ernst; Palumbo, Renato; Sinzinger, Helmut

    2009-01-01

    During the last few years an increasing number of nuclear medicine patients in various countries evoked a radiation alarm after therapeutic or diagnostic procedures, and even after passive exposure. A prospective calculation of activity retention in the patient's body is difficult due to extremely high variation of uptake and kinetics. Furthermore, different sensitivities and distances of the detectors make a prospective calculation even more difficult. In this article a number of cases are being reported, related problems are discussed and the surprisingly very limited literature reviewed. In order to minimize problems after eventually triggering alarms, we strongly recommend that each patient receives a certificate providing personal data, tracer, dose, half-life of the radionuclide, type and date of procedure applied as well as the nuclear medicine unit to contact for further information. Furthermore, a closer cooperation and exchange of information between the authorities and local nuclear medicine societies, would be welcome.

  14. Extreme Physics and Informational/Computational Limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Sia, Paolo, E-mail: paolo.disia@univr.it, E-mail: 10alla33@virgilio.it [Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Verona University, Strada Le Grazie 15, I-37134 Verona (Italy) and Faculty of Computer Science, Free University of Bozen, Piazza Domenicani 3, I-39100 Bozen-Bolzano (Italy)

    2011-07-08

    A sector of the current theoretical physics, even called 'extreme physics', deals with topics concerning superstring theories, multiverse, quantum teleportation, negative energy, and more, that only few years ago were considered scientific imaginations or purely speculative physics. Present experimental lines of evidence and implications of cosmological observations seem on the contrary support such theories. These new physical developments lead to informational limits, as the quantity of information, that a physical system can record, and computational limits, resulting from considerations regarding black holes and space-time fluctuations. In this paper I consider important limits for information and computation resulting in particular from string theories and its foundations.

  15. Extreme Physics and Informational/Computational Limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sia, Paolo

    2011-01-01

    A sector of the current theoretical physics, even called 'extreme physics', deals with topics concerning superstring theories, multiverse, quantum teleportation, negative energy, and more, that only few years ago were considered scientific imaginations or purely speculative physics. Present experimental lines of evidence and implications of cosmological observations seem on the contrary support such theories. These new physical developments lead to informational limits, as the quantity of information, that a physical system can record, and computational limits, resulting from considerations regarding black holes and space-time fluctuations. In this paper I consider important limits for information and computation resulting in particular from string theories and its foundations.

  16. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  17. n-Colour even self-inverse compositions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An -colour even self-inverse composition is defined as an -colour self-inverse composition with even parts. In this paper, we get generating functions, explicit formulas and recurrence formulas for -colour even self-inverse compositions. One new binomial identity is also obtained.

  18. The new break-even analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskaris, James; Regan, Katie

    2013-12-01

    Changes in the economic and legislative environment have complicated the capital acquisition landscape. Hospitals and health systems should: Question the assumptions that underlie their break-even analysis. Revamp the break-even calculator. Engage in discussions about the clinical aspects of equipment and technology acquisition decisions.

  19. The first observation of EO transitions from negative parity states in even-even nucleus 160Dy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigoriev, E.P.

    1988-01-01

    In even-even deformed nuclei up to now EO-transitions were found only between the states of the same spin belonging to Κ π = O + rotational bands. There is no forbidenness for EO-transitions between states belonging to bands with any other quantum number Κ provided both initial and final states have the same J π Κ values. EO-transitions may depopulate odd-parity states. In odd nuclei β-vibrational states are identified by transition with EO-components. Here transitions also proceed between states with the same J π K numbers. Even-even nuclide 160 Dy is the first nucleus where the EO-transitions between odd-parity states have been found

  20. Multiphonon states in even-even spherical nuclei. Pt.1. Calculation of the overlap matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piepenbring, R.; Protasov, K.V.; Silvestre-Brac, B.

    1995-01-01

    The multiphonon method, previously developed for deformed nuclei is extended to the case of even-even spherical nuclei. Recursion formulae, well suited for numerical calculations are given for the overlap matrix elements. The method is illustrated for a single j-shell, where S-, D-, G-, .. phonons are introduced. In such an approach, the Pauli principle is fully and properly taken into account. ((orig.))

  1. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kivinen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

  2. Low-lying collective quadrupole and octupole strengths in even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raman, S.; Nestor, C.W. Jr.; Kahane, S.; Bhatt, K.H.

    1991-01-01

    The B(E2)↑ values for the first 2 + state of even-even nuclei in the Z≥50 region are compared with the predictions of several theoretical models. Comparative estimates of the overall agreement with the data are provided. Gaps and discrepancies in the data and examples that show interesting features such as shape changes are discussed. The B(E2)↑ values are examined critically to search for the dynamical Pauli effects predicted by the fermion dynamic symmetry model. The empirical B(E2)↑ and B(E3)↑ systematics are employed to obtain a measure of the harmonicity of the quadrupole and octupole vibrations. The fraction of the energy-weighted sum-rule strength exhausted by the sum of all known low-lying 2 + states below 2.3 MeV is found to be surprisingly constant in the 60< A<250 region except near closed shells

  3. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  4. Coexistence in even-even nuclei with emphasis on the germanium isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carchidi, M.A.V.

    1985-01-01

    No simple model to date can explain in a self-consistent way the results of direct transfer data and BE2 electromagnetic rates in the germanium isotopes. The simplest models use a two-state interaction for describing the ground state and first excited O + state. In all cases, these models can account for some of the data, but they are in drastic conflict with other experimental measurements. In this thesis, it is shown that a two-state model can consistently account for two-neutron and alpha transfer O + 2 /g.s. cross-section ratio data in the germanium region (ie. zinc, germanium, and selenium), proton occupation number data in the ground states of the even stable zinc, germanium, and selenium isotopes, and BE2 transition rates in isotopes of germanium and zinc. In addition the author can account for most of the one-neutron and two-neutron transfer O + 2 /g.s. and (9/2 + 2 )/(9/2 + 1 ) cross-section ratio data in the odd-mass germanium isotopes. In this generalized two-state model (called Rerg1), the author makes as few assumptions as possible about the nature of the basis states; rather the author allows the experimental data to dictate the properties of the basis-state overlaps. In this sense, the author has learned much about the basis states and has a useful tool for constructing them. The author also shows that the Rerg1 model can quantitatively account for all two-neutron O + 2 /g.s. cross-section ratio data in all even-even nuclei from calcium to uranium

  5. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  6. Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenderink, Geert; Van Meijgaard, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Relations between hourly precipitation extremes and atmospheric temperature and moisture derived for the present-day climate are studied with the aim of understanding the behavior (and the uncertainty in predictions) of hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate. A dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the daily mean 2 m temperature of approximately two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is found for temperatures above 10 deg. C. This is a robust relation obtained in four observational records across western Europe. A dependency following the CC relation can be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric (absolute) humidity with temperature, whereas the enhanced dependency (compared to the CC relation) appears to be caused by dynamical feedbacks owing to excess latent heat release in extreme showers. Integrations with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 at 25 km grid spacing show that changes in hourly precipitation extremes may indeed considerably exceed the prediction from the CC relation. The results suggests that increases of + 70% or even more are possible by the end of this century. However, a different regional model (CLM operated at ETHZ) predicts much smaller increases; this is probably caused by a too strong sensitivity of this model to a decrease in relative humidity.

  7. Damping of isovector giant dipole resonances in hot even-even spherical nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, N.D.

    1989-01-01

    An approach based on the finite temperature quasiparticle phonon nuclear model (FT-QPNM) with the couplings to (2p2h) states at finite temperature taken into account is suggested for calculations of the damping of giant multipole resonances in hot even-even spherical nuclei. The strength functions for the isovector giant dipole resonance (IV-GDR) are calculated in 58 Ni and 90 Zr for a range of temperatures up to 3 MeV. The results show that the contribution of the interactions with (2p2h) configurations to the IV-GDR spreading width changes weakly with varying temperature. The IV-GDR centroid energy decreases slightly with increasing temperature. The nonvanishing superfluid pairing gap due to thermal fluctuations is included. (orig.)

  8. Collective motions and band structures in A = 60 to 80, even--even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, J.H.; Robinson, R.L.; Ramayya, A.V.

    1978-01-01

    Evidence for and the theoretical understanding of the richness of the collective band structures as illustrated by at least seven bands seen in levels of 68 Ge, 74 Se are reviewed. The experimental data on even-even nuclei in the A = 60 to 80 region have now revealed a wide variety of collective bands with different structures. The even parity yrast cascades alone are seen to involve multiple collective structures. In addition to the ground-state bands, strong evidence is presented for both neutron and proton rotation-aligned bands built on the same orbital, (g 9 / 2 ) 2 , in one nucleus. Several other nuclei also show the crossing of RAL bands around the 8 + level in this region. Evidence continues to be strong experimentally and supported theoretically that there is some type of shape transition and shape coexistence occurring now both in the Ge and Se isotopes around N = 40. Negative parity bands with odd and even spins with very collective nature are seen in several nuclei to high spin. These bands seem best understood in the RAL model. Very collective bands with ΔI = 1, extending from 2 + to 9 + are seen with no rotation-alignment. The purity of these bands and their persistence to such high spin establish them as an independent collective mode which is best described as a gamma-type vibration band in a deformed nucleus. In addition to all of the above bands, new bands are seen in 76 Kr and 74 Se. The nature of these bands is not presently known. 56 references

  9. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  10. Limitations of Extreme Nonlinear Ultrafast Nanophotonics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kern Christian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available High-harmonic generation (HHG has been established as an indispensable tool in optical spectroscopy. This effect arises for instance upon illumination of a noble gas with sub-picosecond laser pulses at focussed intensities significantly greater than 1012W/cm2. HHG provides a coherent light source in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV spectral region, which is of importance in inner shell photo ionization of many atoms and molecules. Additionally, it intrinsically features light fields with unique temporal properties. Even in its simplest realization, XUV bursts of sub-femtosecond pulse lengths are released. More sophisticated schemes open the path to attosecond physics by offering single pulses of less than 100 attoseconds duration.

  11. Adaptation to extreme climate events at a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Christin

    2017-01-01

    A significant increase of the frequency, the intensity and the duration of extreme climate events in Switzerland induces the need to find a strategy to deal with the damages they cause. For more than two decades, mitigation has been the main objective of climate policy. However, due to already high atmospheric carbon concentrations and the inertia of the climate system, climate change is unavoidable to some degree, even if today’s emissions were almost completely cut back. Along with the high...

  12. Brachial index does not reflect upper extremity functionality following surgery for vascular trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Simsek

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Vascular injuries to the upper extremities requiring surgical repair are common after accidents. However, neither postoperative functionality nor hemodynamic status of the extremity are routinely described. We evaluated the postoperative functional and hemodynamic status of patients with vascular traumas in the upper extremities. METHODS: 26 patients who suffered penetrating vascular traumas in the upper extremities from November 2008 to December 2011 were retrospectively evaluated. Data on first approach, surgical technique employed and early postoperative outcomes were recorded. Further data on the post-discharge period, including clinical functional status of the arm, Doppler ultrasonography and brachial-brachial index were also evaluated. RESULTS: Average follow up was 33.5±10.8 months. Right (1.05±0.09 and left (1.04±0.08 brachial indexes were measured during follow up,. Doppler ultrasonography showed arterial occlusion in 4 patients (15%. Near-normal brachial-brachial indexes was observed in all four of these patients with occlusion of one of the upper extremity arteries, even though they exhibited limited arm function for daily work. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the postoperative outcomes of this small series of patients with penetrating vascular traumas in the upper extremity revealed that 15% of them suffered occlusion of one artery of the upper extremity. Artery occlusion did not correlate with brachial-brachial Doppler index, probably due to rich collateral circulation, but occlusion was associated with an extremity that was dysfunctional for the purposes of daily work. The result of the brachial-brachial index does not therefore correlate with functionality.

  13. Marine Extremes and Natural Hazards: when the key is variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Camargo, Ricardo; Salcedo Castro, Julio

    2014-05-01

    At EGU2013 we used the work we are conducting regarding marine extreme events and natural hazards to exploit the distance that separate the scientific community and the non academic society, trying to show where bridges need to be built an how an ethical behavior among the scientists needs to be in place to succeed. We concluded that our actions as scientists have not been the most appropriate in communicating outside the academy our results, particularly when our findings have to do with natural hazards which could contribute to loss of life and the environmental quality that sustains it. Even if one of the barriers that separate the academy from society is the "language", too cryptic even for a well educated (not scientific) citizen in many cases, we scientists complicated even more the problems when we stop worrying about some basic concepts regarding the scientific method once upon a time were teach at basic school levels, particularly concerning differences as accuracy and precision, or the concept of uncertainty and the errors which permeate any observation or scientific "prediction". Science teaching at basic levels was not lost, but changed in the XXth century, concentrating in the so many new advancements and abandoning classical but necessary learning processes just about how sciences is done and why. When studying marine extreme events, we use statistic, stochastic methods, deterministic analysis, logical and numerical modeling, etc. However, our results are still very far away of being accurate, while our precision, however is improving just a little, it is still far away of ideal. That appears to be somehow obvious if we look just the observed vs. the modeled data. Nevertheless, if we look not the absolute values of our results, but the "rhythm" of their variability and compare these cadences with the beats observed in nature, new patterns arose, and clues about how to act regarding natural hazards and extreme events became more clear. We are being

  14. Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zappa

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of Swiss river basins to the 2003 European summer heatwave was evaluated by a combined analysis of historical discharge records and specific applications of distributed hydrological modeling. In the summer of 2003, the discharge from headwater streams of the Swiss Central Plateau was only 40%–60% of the long-term average. For alpine basins runoff was about 60%–80% of the average. Glacierized basins showed the opposite behavior. According to the degree of glacierization, the average summer runoff was close or even above average. The hydrological model PREVAH was applied for the period 1982–2005. Even if the model was not calibrated for such extreme meteorological conditions, it was well able to simulate the hydrological responses of three basins. The aridity index φ describes feedbacks between hydrological and meteorological anomalies, and was adopted as an indicator of hydrological drought. The anomalies of φ and temperature in the summer of 2003 exceeded the 1982–2005 mean by more than 2 standard deviations. Catchments without glaciers showed negative correlations between φ and discharge R. In basins with about 15% glacierization, φ and R were not correlated. River basins with higher glacier percentages showed a positive correlation between φ and R. Icemelt was positively correlated with φ and reduced the variability of discharge with larger amounts of meltwater. Runoff generation from the non-glaciated sub-areas was limited by high evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. The 2003 summer heatwave could be a precursor to similar events in the near future. Hydrological models and further data analysis will allow the identification of the most sensitive regions where heatwaves may become a recurrent natural hazard with large environmental, social and economical impacts.

  15. Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

  16. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  17. Evaluation of airfield pavement evenness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietruszewski, Paweł; Poświata, Adam; Wesołowski, Mariusz

    2018-05-01

    The evenness of airfield pavements is one of the basic operating parameters, which characterize them. The evenness determines not only comfort of traffic along an airfield pavement, but also influences the size of dynamic effect on the pavement, hence, the safety of air operations. In addition, the evenness condition changing as a result of dynamic loads, adverse weather conditions or inappropriate airfield pavement construction technology, lead to deviations from the desired condition in the form of longitudinal and transverse unevenness. As a result, systematic and correct performance of tests is a very significant and required factor impacting the improvement of traffic safety on airfield pavements. If the data obtained through the measurements are not sufficiently reliable, they may consequently lead to making incorrect decisions, which can ultimately impact the safety of air operations.

  18. A united phenomenological description of quadrupole excitations in even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipas, P.O.; Haapakoski, P.; Honkaranta, T.

    1975-05-01

    A phenomenological model is developed for the collective quadrupole properties of all even-even nuclei. Rotational, vibrational, and transitional nuclei are included in the model on an equal footing. A Bohr-type intrinsic Hamiltonian for harmonic quadrupole vibrations about an axially deformed shape is solved exactly. States of good angular momentum are projected out of the intrinsic states, and they are made orthogonal by a Schmidt scheme. The angular-momentum and phonon-number composition of the states is analyzed at various stages; states with K=1 are found spurious. Excitation energies for the ground, β and γ bands are calculated as expectation values of a radically simplified nuclear Hamiltonian in our projected and orthogonalized states. With increasing deformation the calculated energies evolve smoothly from the evenly spaced phonon spectrum to the Bohr-Mottelson rotational-vibrational spectrum according to the scheme of Sheline and Sakai. The basic model contains only two parameters (deformation d and energy scale) to fix the entire quadrupole spectrum of a nucleus. The results are given in the form of graphs suitable for immediate application; numerical results are readily produced by our computer code. The ground bands are fitted comparably to the VMI model, while the β and γ bands are reproduced qualitatively. The nuclei 152 Sm, 152 Gd, and 114 Cd are used as test cases. Quadrupole moments and E2 transition rates are also calculated. Intra-ground-band transition ratios and branching ratios from the β and γ bands are given in terms of the single parameter d. The results are applied to 152 Sm, with fair success. Finally the model to include two more parameters (anisotropy) is extended. The improvement over the basic model is modest in view of added parameters and computational effort. (author)

  19. Resistance of Microorganisms to Extreme Environmental Conditions and Its Contribution to Astrobiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pabulo Henrique Rampelotto

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, substantial changes have occurred regarding what scientists consider the limits of habitable environmental conditions. For every extreme environmental condition investigated, a variety of microorganisms have shown that not only can they tolerate these conditions, but that they also often require these extreme conditions for survival. Microbes can return to life even after hundreds of millions of years. Furthermore, a variety of studies demonstrate that microorganisms can survive under extreme conditions, such as ultracentrifugation, hypervelocity, shock pressure, high temperature variations, vacuums, and different ultraviolet and ionizing radiation intensities, which simulate the conditions that microbes could experience during the ejection from one planet, the journey through space, as well as the impact in another planet. With these discoveries, our knowledge about the biosphere has grown and the putative boundaries of life have expanded. The present work examines the recent discoveries and the principal advances concerning the resistance of microorganisms to extreme environmental conditions, and analyzes its contributions to the development of the main themes of astrobiology: the origins of life, the search for extraterrestrial life, and the dispersion of life in the Universe.

  20. Further outlooks: extremely uncomfortable; Die weiteren Aussichten: extrem ungemuetlich

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Resenhoeft, T.

    2006-07-01

    Climate is changing extremely in the last decades. Scientists dealing with extreme weather, should not only stare at computer simulations. They have also to turn towards psyche, seriously personal experiences, knowing statistics, relativise supposed sensational reports and last not least collecting more data. (GL)

  1. Exploring societal solidarity in the context of extreme prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Manya J; Bucher, Hans Ulrich; Klein, Sabine D; Streuli, Jürg C; Baumann-Hölzle, Ruth; Fauchère, Jean-Claude

    2017-03-21

    Extreme prematurity can result in long-term disabilities. Its impact on society is often not taken into account and deemed controversial. Our study examined attitudes of the Swiss population regarding extreme prematurity and people's perspectives regarding the question of solidarity with disabled people. We conducted a nationwide representative anonymous telephone survey with 1210 Swiss residents aged 18 years or older. We asked how people estimate their own personal solidarity, the solidarity of their social environment and the solidarity across the country with disabled persons. Spearman's correlation calculations were used to assess if a correlation exists between solidarity and setting financial limits to intensive care and between solidarity and withholding neonatal intensive care. According to 36.0% of the respondents intensive medical care should not be withheld from extremely preterm infants, even if their chances for an acceptable quality of life were poor. For 28.8%, intensive care should be withheld from these infants, and 26.9% held an intermediate position depending on the situation. A total of 31.5% were against setting a financial limit to treatment of extremely preterm newborns with an uncertain future quality of life, 34.2% were in favour and 26.9% were deliberating. A majority (88.8%) considered their solidarity toward disabled people as substantial; the solidarity of their personal environment and of the society at large was estimated as high by 79.1% and 48.6%, respectively. The Swiss population expressed a high level of solidarity which may alleviate some pressure on parents and health care providers in the decision-making process in neonatal intensive care units. In addition, there was no relationship between solidarity and people's willingness to pay for the care or withholding treatment of extremely preterm babies.

  2. Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

  3. Explicit integration of extremely stiff reaction networks: partial equilibrium methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidry, M W; Hix, W R; Billings, J J

    2013-01-01

    In two preceding papers (Guidry et al 2013 Comput. Sci. Disc. 6 015001 and Guidry and Harris 2013 Comput. Sci. Disc. 6 015002), we have shown that when reaction networks are well removed from equilibrium, explicit asymptotic and quasi-steady-state approximations can give algebraically stabilized integration schemes that rival standard implicit methods in accuracy and speed for extremely stiff systems. However, we also showed that these explicit methods remain accurate but are no longer competitive in speed as the network approaches equilibrium. In this paper, we analyze this failure and show that it is associated with the presence of fast equilibration timescales that neither asymptotic nor quasi-steady-state approximations are able to remove efficiently from the numerical integration. Based on this understanding, we develop a partial equilibrium method to deal effectively with the approach to equilibrium and show that explicit asymptotic methods, combined with the new partial equilibrium methods, give an integration scheme that can plausibly deal with the stiffest networks, even in the approach to equilibrium, with accuracy and speed competitive with that of implicit methods. Thus we demonstrate that such explicit methods may offer alternatives to implicit integration of even extremely stiff systems and that these methods may permit integration of much larger networks than have been possible before in a number of fields. (paper)

  4. Systematic study of even-even nuclei with Hartree-Fock+BCS method using Skyrme SIII force

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tajima, Naoki; Takahara, Satoshi; Onishi, Naoki [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of Arts and Sciences

    1997-03-01

    We have applied the Hartree-Fock+BCS method with Skyrme SIII force formulated in a three-dimensional Cartesian-mesh representation to even-even nuclei with 2 {<=} Z {<=} 114. We discuss the results concerning the atomic masses, the quadrupole (m=0, 2) and hexadecapole (m=0, 2, 4) deformations, the skin thicknesses, and the halo radii. We also discuss the energy difference between oblate and prolate solutions and the shape difference between protons and neutrons. (author)

  5. Populist Extreme-Right Parties in the European Parliament – A March on Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zarja Protner

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Populist extreme right parties (PERPs have become an important part of politics, not only at the national level but also in the European Union. With the 2014 elections, the number of PERPs MEPs increased, extreme parties have won the elections in France and Denmark, and for the first time there will be openly neo-Nazi parties in the parliament. The overview of election results, formation of alliances, and data on the activity of PERPs in the previous EP mandate enables us to recognize the influence of these parties on European politics. The analysis shows that, as in the previous EP mandate, the PERPs in the new one are not going to have a strong influence on the policies of the EP due to the variety of ideologies and consequent inability to form strong alliances and act cohesively as parliamentary groups. The PERPs are going to have representatives mostly in the group of non-attached MEPs, which means they are entitled to less public funds and have smaller influence. However, their increase in number could enable them to delay decision-making processes and express their extreme worldviews even more effectively. Their populism based on the exclusion of the Other is the reason these parties focus on immigration and ethnic minority issues and express anti-Islamic views. Racist discourses, which are not condemned or are even reproduced by mainstream parties, represent a threat to the European democracy.

  6. Materials and noncoplanar mesh designs for integrated circuits with linear elastic responses to extreme mechanical deformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dae-Hyeong; Song, Jizhou; Choi, Won Mook; Kim, Hoon-Sik; Kim, Rak-Hwan; Liu, Zhuangjian; Huang, Yonggang Y; Hwang, Keh-Chih; Zhang, Yong-wei; Rogers, John A

    2008-12-02

    Electronic systems that offer elastic mechanical responses to high-strain deformations are of growing interest because of their ability to enable new biomedical devices and other applications whose requirements are impossible to satisfy with conventional wafer-based technologies or even with those that offer simple bendability. This article introduces materials and mechanical design strategies for classes of electronic circuits that offer extremely high stretchability, enabling them to accommodate even demanding configurations such as corkscrew twists with tight pitch (e.g., 90 degrees in approximately 1 cm) and linear stretching to "rubber-band" levels of strain (e.g., up to approximately 140%). The use of single crystalline silicon nanomaterials for the semiconductor provides performance in stretchable complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) integrated circuits approaching that of conventional devices with comparable feature sizes formed on silicon wafers. Comprehensive theoretical studies of the mechanics reveal the way in which the structural designs enable these extreme mechanical properties without fracturing the intrinsically brittle active materials or even inducing significant changes in their electrical properties. The results, as demonstrated through electrical measurements of arrays of transistors, CMOS inverters, ring oscillators, and differential amplifiers, suggest a valuable route to high-performance stretchable electronics.

  7. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  8. Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

  9. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    . Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructure and social systems. Resilience does not primarily result from the robustness of infrastructure but mainly is a function of the social capital. While it is important to understand the hazards (the contribution of geosciences), it is equally important to understand the processes that let us cope with the hazards, or lead to failure (the contribution of social sciences and engineering). For the latter, we need a joint effort of social sciences and engineering and a revised science-policy relationship. Democratizing knowledge about extreme geohazards is very important in order to inform deliberations of DRR through increased resilience and reduced fragility. The current science-society dialog is not fully capable of supporting deliberative governance. Most scientific knowledge is created independent of those who could put it to use, and a transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary for DRR, particularly for extreme events. This transition may have the consequence of more responsibility and even liability for science.

  10. The impact of soil moisture extremes and their spatiotemporal variability on Zambian maize yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.; Estes, L. D.; Vergopolan, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food security in sub-Saharan Africa is highly sensitive to climate variability. While it is well understood that extreme heat has substantial negative impacts on crop yield, the impacts of precipitation extremes, particularly over large spatial extents, are harder to quantify. There are three primary reasons for this difficulty, which are (1) lack of high quality, high resolution precipitation data, (2) rainfall data provide incomplete information on plant water availability, the variable that most directly affects crop performance, and (3) the type of rainfall extreme that most affects crop yields varies throughout the crop development stage. With respect to the first reason, the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation is much greater than that of temperature, yet the spatial resolution of rainfall data is typically even coarser than it is for temperature, particularly within Africa. Even if there were high-resolution rainfall data, the amount of water available to crops also depends on other physical factors that affect evapotranspiration, which are strongly influenced by heterogeneity in the land surface related to topography, soil properties, and land cover. In this context, soil moisture provides a better measure of crop water availability than rainfall. Furthermore, soil moisture has significantly different influences on crop yield depending on the crop's growth stage. The goal of this study is to understand how the spatiotemporal scales of soil moisture extremes interact with crops, more specifically, the timing and the spatial scales of extreme events like droughts and flooding. In this study, we simulate daily-1km soil moisture using HydroBlocks - a physically based land surface model - and compare it with precipitation and remote sensing derived maize yields between 2000 and 2016 in Zambia. We use a novel combination of the SCYM (scalable satellite-based yield mapper) method with DSSAT crop model, which is a mechanistic model responsive to water

  11. The neutron-proton pairing and the moments of inertia of the rare earth even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calik, A. E.; Deniz, C.; Gerceklioglu, M.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the possible effect of the neutron-proton pairing interaction in the heavy nuclei has been investigated in the framework of the BCS model by making a simple approximation. This effect has been searched realistically by calculating the moments of inertia of deformed even-even nuclei. Calculations show that the moments of inertia of rare earth nuclei changed dramatically and approached the experimental values.

  12. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  13. I-Love-Q to the extreme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Hector O.; Yunes, Nicolás

    2018-01-01

    Certain bulk properties of neutron stars, in particular their moment of inertia, rotational quadrupole moment and tidal Love number, when properly normalized, are related to one another in a nearly equation of state independent way. The goal of this paper is to test these relations with extreme equations of state at supranuclear densities constrained to satisfy only a handful of generic, physically sensible conditions. By requiring that the equation of state be (i) barotropic and (ii) its associated speed of sound be real, we construct a piecewise function that matches a tabulated equation of state at low densities, while matching a stiff equation of state parametrized by its sound speed in the high-density region. We show that the I-Love-Q relations hold to 1 percent with this class of equations of state, even in the extreme case where the speed of sound becomes superluminal and independently of the transition density. We also find further support for the interpretation of the I-Love-Q relations as an emergent symmetry due to the nearly constant eccentricity of isodensity contours inside the star. These results reinforce the robustness of the I-Love-Q relations against our current incomplete picture of physics at supranuclear densities, while strengthening our confidence in the applicability of these relations in neutron star astrophysics.

  14. Pushing the pseudo-SU(3) model towards its limits: Excited bands in even-even Dy isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vargas, Carlos E.; Hirsch, Jorge G.

    2004-01-01

    The energetics of states belonging to normal parity bands in even-even dysprosium isotopes, and their B(E2) transition strengths, are studied using an extended pseudo-SU(3) shell model. States with pseudospin 1 are added to the standard pseudospin 0 space, allowing for a proper description of known excited normal parity bands. A realistic Hamiltonian is employed. Both the success of model and its limitations are discussed

  15. Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

    OpenAIRE

    Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic stations (airports) of North Germany (Bremen, Hamburg and Hannover) were considered for the construction of time series of daily maximum wind speeds. All daily wind extremes were found to be linked...

  16. Numerical simulation of floating bodies in extreme free surface waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Z. Hu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we use the in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD flow code AMAZON-SC as a numerical wave tank (NWT to study wave loading on a wave energy converter (WEC device in heave motion. This is a surface-capturing method for two fluid flows that treats the free surface as contact surface in the density field that is captured automatically without special provision. A time-accurate artificial compressibility method and high resolution Godunov-type scheme are employed in both fluid regions (air/water. The Cartesian cut cell method can provide a boundary-fitted mesh for a complex geometry with no requirement to re-mesh globally or even locally for moving geometry, requiring only changes to cut cell data at the body contour. Extreme wave boundary conditions are prescribed in an empty NWT and compared with physical experiments prior to calculations of extreme waves acting on a floating Bobber-type device. The validation work also includes the wave force on a fixed cylinder compared with theoretical and experimental data under regular waves. Results include free surface elevations, vertical displacement of the float, induced vertical velocity and heave force for a typical Bobber geometry with a hemispherical base under extreme wave conditions.

  17. Controls on fluvial metamorphosis during global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (56 Ma) in Spain: extreme droughts, extreme floods or both?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelltort, Sebastien; Chen, Chen; Guerit, Laure; Foreman, Brady; Paola, Chris; Adatte, Thierry

    2017-04-01

    How does global warming change the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events? The response to this question is partly preserved in the geological record. 56 Ma ago, global temperatures increased during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), leading to a major biotic turnover, but how this event affected the nature of extreme events remains unknown. On several continents, fluvial systems with sinuous channels within fine-grained floodplains suddenly transformed at the P-E boundary into apparently coarser-grained braid plains with frequent lateral migrations, washing their muddy floodplains to the seas. This landscape transformation has been related to aridification and intensification of precipitation allowing transport of coarser material as a result of P-E global warming, with important implications for predicting the consequences of current global change. Here we test this hypothesis by quantifying the magnitude of grain size change and flow depth at a representative P-E locality in Northern Spain. We find that the size of pebbles in transport and flow depth remained similar to, or even smaller than, pre-PETM conditions. This suggests that, if more seasonal and extreme precipitation occurred, they are not necessarily borne out in the predicted deeper flow depths and coarser grain sizes, but rather trigger a shift to multiple active channels. However, an alternative or complementary explanation may rest in pollen data found in coeval marine records and which document a dramatic vegetation shift from permanent conifer forests prior to the crisis into periodic vegetation in brief periods of rain during the hyperthermal episode. Such change induced by long periods of intense droughts, could have enhanced erodibility of channel banks by decreasing root-controlled cohesion of fine-grained floodplains and interfluves, promoting their lateral mobility and the observed fluvial metamorphosis. Thus, although water is regarded as the main agent sculpting

  18. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  19. Can Concentration - Discharge Relationships Diagnose Material Source During Extreme Events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karwan, D. L.; Godsey, S.; Rose, L.

    2017-12-01

    Floods can carry >90% of the basin material exported in a given year as well as alter flow pathways and material sources. In turn, sediment and solute fluxes can increase flood damages and negatively impact water quality and integrate physical and chemical weathering of landscapes and channels. Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships are used to both describe export patterns as well as compute them. Metrics for describing C-Q patterns and inferring their controls are vulnerable to infrequent sampling that affects how C-Q relationships are interpolated and interpreted. C-Q relationships are typically evaluated from multiple samples, but because hydrological extremes are rare, data are often unavailable for extreme events. Because solute and sediment C-Q relationships likely respond to changes in hydrologic extremes in different ways, there is a pressing need to define their behavior under extreme conditions, including how to properly sample to capture these patterns. In the absence of such knowledge, improving load estimates in extreme floods will likely remain difficult. Here we explore the use of C-Q relationships to determine when an event alters a watershed system such that it enters a new material source/transport regime. We focus on watersheds with sediment and discharge time series include low-frequency and/or extreme events. For example, we compare solute and sediment patterns in White Clay Creek in southeastern Pennsylvania across a range of flows inclusive of multiple hurricanes for which we have ample ancillary hydrochemical data. TSS is consistently mobilized during high flow events, even during extreme floods associated with hurricanes, and sediment fingerprinting indicates different sediment sources, including in-channel remobilization and landscape erosion, are active at different times. In other words, TSS mobilization in C-Q space is not sensitive to the source of material being mobilized. Unlike sediments, weathering solutes in this watershed

  20. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  1. Mask Materials and Designs for Extreme Ultra Violet Lithography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jung Sik; Ahn, Jinho

    2018-03-01

    Extreme ultra violet lithography (EUVL) is no longer a future technology but is going to be inserted into mass production of semiconductor devices of 7 nm technology node in 2018. EUVL is an extension of optical lithography using extremely short wavelength (13.5 nm). This short wavelength requires major modifications in the optical systems due to the very strong absorption of EUV light by materials. Refractive optics can no longer be used, and reflective optics is the only solution to transfer image from mask to wafer. This is why we need the multilayer (ML) mirror-based mask as well as an oblique incident angle of light. This paper discusses the principal theory on the EUV mask design and its component materials including ML reflector and EUV absorber. Mask shadowing effect (or mask 3D effect) is explained and its technical solutions like phase shift mask is reviewed. Even though not all the technical issues on EUV mask are handled in this review paper, you will be able to understand the principles determining the performance of EUV masks.

  2. Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

  3. What is the right way to talk about extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, A. H.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events draw the attention of the public. By demonstrating the vulnerability of human society to climate, extreme events can cause nonscientists -government leaders as well as the broader population - to take the danger posed by anthropogenic global warming more seriously than they otherwise might. An extreme event that draws media attention can become a 'teachable moment'. But extreme events are difficult to talk about in a way that honors both the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying science. No single event can be attributed to climate change, and some types of events are not even clearly influenced by it (or not in any ways our science can yet demonstrate). Strong, media-friendly statements that closely connect specific events to climate - designed to make best use of the moment's teachability - can easily overstate the case. This will raise the hackles of one's colleagues, at a minimum, and at worst, may damage the credibility of the field more broadly. Yet talking too much about the uncertainties runs the risk of understating the basic truth that global warming is real and dangerous, and may lend inadvertent support to anti-scientific denialism. I will discuss this tension in the context of my own experiences in the media after 'Superstorm' Sandy. I will address arguments I have heard, from social scientists and media consultants, to the effect that climate scientists should adopt communications strategies that lead to stronger, more media-friendly statements, and learn to suppress the tendency, bred into us during our scientific training, to emphasize the uncertainties.

  4. The upper extremity deep venous thrombosis and its interventional treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Chao; Ni Caifang

    2011-01-01

    Upper extremity deep vein thrombosis (UEDVT) was once regarded as a kind of disorder that was not serious. With the development of medical knowledge and research, it is now has been well recognized that UEDVT is an important risk factor that can bring about the pulmonary embolus, even cause death in severe patients. This article aims to make a comprehensive review of UEDVT, focusing on the etiology, epidemiology, the clinical features, the diagnosis, the interventional treatment options, the nursing care, the complications as well as prevention strategies, etc. (authors)

  5. Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic...... regimes. Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term. For early warnings, all available EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI......) formulations were used, by linking daily maximum wind speeds to EFI values for different forecast horizons. From all possible EFI schemes deployed for issuing early warnings, the highest skill was found for the Gust Factor formulation (EFI-10FGI). Using EFI-10FGI, the corresponding 99% threshold could provide...

  6. Matrix models with non-even potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marzban, C.; Raju Viswanathan, R.

    1990-07-01

    We study examples of hermitian 1-matrix models with even and odd terms present in the potential. A definition of criticality is presented which in these cases leads to multicritical models falling into the same universality classes as those of the purely even potentials. We also show that, in our examples, for polynomial potentials ending in odd powers (unbounded) the coupling constants, in addition to their expected real critical values, also admit critical values which alternate between imaginary/real values in the odd/even terms. We find that, remarkably, the ensuing statistical models are insensitive to the real/imaginary nature of these critical values. This feature may be of relevance in the recently-studied connection between matrix models and the moduli space of Riemann surfaces. (author). 9 refs

  7. Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

    2001-01-01

    We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

  8. Alpha decay and nuclear deformation: the case for favoured alpha transitions of even-even emitters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, F.; Goncalves, M.; Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P.

    2000-02-01

    Alpha-decay half-life for ground-state transitions of 174 even-even alpha emitters has been calculated from a simple, Gamow-like model in which the quadrupole deformation of the product nucleus (assumed to have an ellipsoidal shape) is taken into account. The assumption made is that before tunneling through a purely Coulomb potential barrier the two-body system oscillates isotropically, thus giving rise to an equivalent, average polar direction θ (referred to the symmetry axis of the ellipsoid) for alpha emission. It is shown that the experimental half-life data are much better reproduced by the present description than in the spherical-shaped approximation for the daughter nucleus. (author)

  9. Alpha decay and nuclear deformation: the case for favoured alpha transitions of even-even emitters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, F. [Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilheus, BA (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencias Exatas e Tecnologicas; Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F. [Instituto Superior de Ciencias y Tecnologia Nucleares (ISCTN), La Habana (Cuba); Goncalves, M. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria IRD/CNEN, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P. [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). E-mail: sbd@cbpf.br

    2000-02-01

    Alpha-decay half-life for ground-state transitions of 174 even-even alpha emitters has been calculated from a simple, Gamow-like model in which the quadrupole deformation of the product nucleus (assumed to have an ellipsoidal shape) is taken into account. The assumption made is that before tunneling through a purely Coulomb potential barrier the two-body system oscillates isotropically, thus giving rise to an equivalent, average polar direction {theta} (referred to the symmetry axis of the ellipsoid) for alpha emission. It is shown that the experimental half-life data are much better reproduced by the present description than in the spherical-shaped approximation for the daughter nucleus. (author)

  10. Shape coexistence in the neutron-deficient even-even (182-188)Hg isotopes studied via coulomb excitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bree, N; Wrzosek-Lipska, K; Petts, A; Andreyev, A; Bastin, B; Bender, M; Blazhev, A; Bruyneel, B; Butler, P A; Butterworth, J; Carpenter, M P; Cederkäll, J; Clément, E; Cocolios, T E; Deacon, A; Diriken, J; Ekström, A; Fitzpatrick, C; Fraile, L M; Fransen, Ch; Freeman, S J; Gaffney, L P; García-Ramos, J E; Geibel, K; Gernhäuser, R; Grahn, T; Guttormsen, M; Hadinia, B; Hadyńska-Kle K, K; Hass, M; Heenen, P-H; Herzberg, R-D; Hess, H; Heyde, K; Huyse, M; Ivanov, O; Jenkins, D G; Julin, R; Kesteloot, N; Kröll, Th; Krücken, R; Larsen, A C; Lutter, R; Marley, P; Napiorkowski, P J; Orlandi, R; Page, R D; Pakarinen, J; Patronis, N; Peura, P J; Piselli, E; Rahkila, P; Rapisarda, E; Reiter, P; Robinson, A P; Scheck, M; Siem, S; Singh Chakkal, K; Smith, J F; Srebrny, J; Stefanescu, I; Tveten, G M; Van Duppen, P; Van de Walle, J; Voulot, D; Warr, N; Wenander, F; Wiens, A; Wood, J L; Zielińska, M

    2014-04-25

    Coulomb-excitation experiments to study electromagnetic properties of radioactive even-even Hg isotopes were performed with 2.85  MeV/nucleon mercury beams from REX-ISOLDE. Magnitudes and relative signs of the reduced E2 matrix elements that couple the ground state and low-lying excited states in Hg182-188 were extracted. Information on the deformation of the ground and the first excited 0+ states was deduced using the quadrupole sum rules approach. Results show that the ground state is slightly deformed and of oblate nature, while a larger deformation for the excited 0+ state was noted in Hg182,184. The results are compared to beyond mean field and interacting-boson based models and interpreted within a two-state mixing model. Partial agreement with the model calculations was obtained. The presence of two different structures in the light even-mass mercury isotopes that coexist at low excitation energy is firmly established.

  11. What are extreme environmental conditions and how do organisms cope with them?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. WINGFIELD, J. Patrick KELLEY, Frédéric ANGELIER

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Severe environmental conditions affect organisms in two major ways. The environment may be predictably severe such as in deserts, polar and alpine regions, or individuals may be exposed to temporarily extreme conditions through weather, presence of predators, lack of food, social status etc. Existence in an extreme environment may be possible, but then to breed or molt in addition can present major bottlenecks that have resulted in the evolution of hormone-behavior adaptations to cope with unpredictable events. Examples of hormone-behavior adaptations in extreme conditions include attenuated testosterone secretion because territoriality and excess courtship may be too costly when there is one opportunity to reproduce. The individual may even become insensitive to testosterone when target areas of the brain regulating reproductive behavior no longer respond to the hormone. A second example is reduced sensitivity to glucocorticoids following acute stress during the breeding season or molt that allows successful reproduction and/or a vital renewal of the integument to endure extreme conditions during the rest of the year. Reduced sensitivity could involve: (a modulated response of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis, (b reduced sensitivity to high glucocorticoid levels, or (c a combination of (a and (b. Moreover, corticosteroid binding proteins (CBP buffer responses to stress by reducing the movement of glucocorticoids into target cells. Finally, intracellular enzymes (11b-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase and variants can deactivate glucocorticoids entering cells thus reducing interaction with receptors. These mechanisms have important implications for climate change and increasing extremes of weather [Current Zoology 57 (3: 363–374, 2011].

  12. Even order snake resonances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.Y.

    1993-01-01

    We found that the perturbed spin tune due to the imperfection resonance plays an important role in beam depolarization at snake resonances. We also found that even order snake resonances exist in the overlapping intrinsic and imperfection resonances. Due to the perturbed spin tune shift of imperfection resonances, each snake resonance splits into two

  13. High-resolution stochastic generation of extreme rainfall intensity for urban drainage modelling applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Urban drainage response is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall. Therefore, measuring and simulating rainfall at a high spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental step to fully assess urban drainage system reliability and related uncertainties. This is even more relevant when considering extreme rainfall events. However, the current space-time rainfall models have limitations in capturing extreme rainfall intensity statistics for short durations. Here, we use the STREAP (Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) model, which is a novel stochastic rainfall generator for simulating high-resolution rainfall fields that preserve the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall and its statistical characteristics. The model enables a generation of rain fields at 102 m and minute scales in a fast and computer-efficient way matching the requirements for hydrological analysis of urban drainage systems. The STREAP model was applied successfully in the past to generate high-resolution extreme rainfall intensities over a small domain. A sub-catchment in the city of Luzern (Switzerland) was chosen as a case study to: (i) evaluate the ability of STREAP to disaggregate extreme rainfall intensities for urban drainage applications; (ii) assessing the role of stochastic climate variability of rainfall in flow response and (iii) evaluate the degree of non-linearity between extreme rainfall intensity and system response (i.e. flow) for a small urban catchment. The channel flow at the catchment outlet is simulated by means of a calibrated hydrodynamic sewer model.

  14. Even Superheroes Need Help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, Mel

    2018-01-01

    It is not clear exactly when school leaders first started wearing an "S" on their chests and began defiantly uttering the phrase, "I can do it all myself!" But after days, weeks, months, or even years of racing wildly from task to task, many a superhero principal has come to the stark realization that nothing could be further…

  15. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  16. E2,M1 multipole mixing ratios in even-even nuclei, 58< or =A< or =150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krane, K.S.

    1977-01-01

    A survey is presented of E2,M1 multipole mixing ratios of gamma-ray transitions in even-even nuclei in the mass range 58< or =A< or =150. Angular distribution and correlation data from the literature are analyzed in terms of a consistent choice of the phase relationship between the E2 and M1 matrix elements. A set of recommended values of the mixing ratios is included based on averages of results from various studies. The survey includes data available in the literature up to December 1976

  17. The Use of Nerve Transfers to Restore Upper Extremity Function in Cervical Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Ida K; Novak, Christine B; Krauss, Emily M; Hoben, Gwendolyn M; Zaidman, Craig; Ruvinskaya, Rimma; Juknis, Neringa; Winter, Anke C; Mackinnon, Susan E

    2018-03-15

    Nerve transfer surgery to restore upper extremity function in cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) is novel and may transform treatment. Determining candidacy even years post-SCI is ill defined and deserves investigation. To develop a diagnostic algorithm, focusing on electrodiagnostic (EDX) studies, to determine eligibility for nerve transfer surgery. Retrospective descriptive case series. Tertiary university-based institution. Individuals with cervical SCI (n = 45). The electronic medical records of people referred to the Plastic Surgery Multidisciplinary Upper Extremity Surgery unit in the SCI clinic from 2010-2015 were reviewed. People were considered for nerve transfers to restore elbow extension or finger flexion and/or extension. Data including demographic, clinical evaluation, EDX results, surgery, and outcomes were collected and analyzed. EDX data, including nerve conduction studies and electromyography, for bilateral upper extremities of each patient examined was used to assess for the presence of lower motor neuron injury, which would preclude late nerve transfer. Based on our criteria and the results of EDX testing, a substantial number of patients presenting even years post-SCI were candidates for nerve transfers. Clinical outcome results are heterogeneous but promising and suggest that further refinement of eligibility, long-term follow-up, and standardized assessment will improve our understanding of the role of nerve transfer surgery to restore function in people with midcervical SCI. Many patients living with SCI are candidates for nerve transfer surgery to restore upper extremity function. Although the ultimate efficacy of these surgeries is not yet determined, this study attempts to report the criteria we are using and may ultimately determine the timing for intervention and which transfers are most useful for this heterogeneous population. IV. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

  18. Brazil: from reduction of poverty to a commitment to eradicate extreme poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Lavinas

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to summarise certain positive results achieved by the Lula government in the sphere of social policy and to highlight the new challenges taken on by President Dilma Rousseff in terms of eradicating extreme poverty, after her first year in government. After Lula’s success with social policy, Rousseff has committed herself to eradicating extreme poverty over the short term (the four years of her mandate in a federation that is marked by weak links in cooperation, a distinct heterogeneity within the federated bodies and profound socio-economic inequality among citizens. Under Lula’s government, the factors that most helped to reduce poverty and inequality were the recovery of the minimum salary’s real value in rates higher than that of inflation, as well as an increase in formal employment, with the creation of approximately 12,000,000 jobs in eight years. For Dilma’s term of office, which began with a downturn in economic growth rates, an even bigger challenge lies ahead. In light of this, the article evaluates the prospects for success of Dilma’s government in terms of eradicating extreme poverty in Brazil.

  19. Regional amplification of extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2016-12-01

    Land temperatures, and in particular hot extremes, will likely increase by more than 2° C in many regions, even in the case that the global temperature increase with respect to pre-industrial levels can be limited to 2°C. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for projected changes of extreme temperatures by comparing experiments from the GLACE-CMIP5 (Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) project. In particular, we consider fully coupled experiments with all 6 involved GCMs and corresponding experiments where soil moisture is fixed to the local present-day seasonal cycle until the end of the 21st century. We consider the yearly hottest days and apply a scaling approach whereby we relate changes of hottest days to global mean temperature increase. We find that soil moisture-temperature coupling significantly contributes to additional future warming of extreme temperatures in many regions: In particular, it can explain more than 70% of the warming amplification of hottest days compared to global mean temperature in Central Europe, Central North America and Northern Australia, and around 50% of this signal in the Amazonian Region and Southern Africa.

  20. Ideologies and Discourses: Extreme Narratives in Extreme Metal Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojana Radovanović

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Historically speaking, metal music has always been about provoking a strong reaction. Depending on the characteristics of different sub-genres, one can focus on the sound, technique, visual appearance, and furthermore, the ideologies and ideas that are the foundation for each of the sub-genres. Although the majority of the metal community rejects accusations of being racially intolerant, some ideologies of extreme sub-genres (such as black metal are in fact formed around the ideas of self-conscious elitism expressed through interest in pagan mythology, racism, Nazism and fascism. There has been much interest in the Nazi era within the extreme metal scene thus influencing other sub-genres and artists. The aim of this paper is to examine various appearances of extreme narratives such as Nazism and racism in  different sub-genres of metal, bearing in mind variations dependent on geographical, political, and other factors.

  1. Extremal surface barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

    2014-01-01

    We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy

  2. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

    2014-06-01

    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  3. Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korup, Oliver

    2012-05-01

    Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage

  4. Extremely Durable, Flexible Supercapacitors with Greatly Improved Performance at High Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sung-Kon; Kim, Hae Jin; Lee, Jong-Chan; Braun, Paul V; Park, Ho Seok

    2015-08-25

    The reliability and durability of energy storage devices are as important as their essential characteristics (e.g., energy and power density) for stable power output and long lifespan and thus much more crucial under harsh conditions. However, energy storage under extreme conditions is still a big challenge because of unavoidable performance decays and the inevitable damage of components. Here, we report high-temperature operating, flexible supercapacitors (f-SCs) that can provide reliable power output and extreme durability under severe electrochemical, mechanical, and thermal conditions. The outstanding capacitive features (e.g., ∼40% enhancement of the rate capability and a maximum capacitances of 170 F g(-1) and 18.7 mF cm(-2) at 160 °C) are attributed to facilitated ion transport at elevated temperatures. Under high-temperature operation and/or a flexibility test in both static and dynamic modes at elevated temperatures >100 °C, the f-SCs showed extreme long-term stability of 100000 cycles (>93% of initial capacitance value) and mechanical durability after hundreds of bending cycles (at bend angles of 60-180°). Even at 120 °C, the versatile design of tandem serial and parallel f-SCs was demonstrated to provide both desirable energy and power requirements at high temperatures.

  5. Predicting the optical observables for nucleon scattering on even-even actinides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyanov, D. S.; Soukhovitskiĩ, E. Sh.; Capote, R.; Quesada, J. M.; Chiba, S.

    2017-09-01

    The previously derived Lane consistent dispersive coupled-channel optical model for nucleon scattering on 232Th and 238U nuclei is extended to describe scattering on even-even actinides with Z = 90-98. A soft-rotator-model (SRM) description of the low-lying nuclear structure is used, where the SRM Hamiltonian parameters are adjusted to the observed collective levels of the target nucleus. SRM nuclear wave functions (mixed in K quantum number) have been used to calculate the coupling matrix elements of the generalized optical model. The “effective” deformations that define inter-band couplings are derived from the SRM Hamiltonian parameters. Conservation of nuclear volume is enforced by introducing a dynamic monopolar term to the deformed potential, leading to additional couplings between rotational bands. The fitted static deformation parameters are in very good agreement with those derived by Wang and collaborators using the Weizsäcker-Skyrme global mass model (WS4), allowing use of the latter to predict cross sections for nuclei without experimental data. A good description of the scarce “optical” experimental database is achieved. SRM couplings and volume conservation allow a precise calculation of the compound-nucleus formation cross sections, which is significantly different from that calculated with rigid-rotor potentials coupling the ground-state rotational band. The derived parameters can be used to describe both neutron- and proton-induced reactions. Supported by International Atomic Energy Agency, through the IAEA Research Contract 19263, by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity under Contracts FPA2014-53290-C2-2-P and FPA2016-77689-C2-1-R.

  6. Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

    2017-02-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high

  7. Soft Tissue Reconstruction of Complete Circumferential Defects of the Upper Extremity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Yang Ng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundUpper extremity soft tissue defects with complete circumferential involvement are not common. Coupled with the unique anatomy of the upper extremity, the underlying etiology of such circumferential soft tissue defects represent additional reconstructive challenges that require treatment to be tailored to both the patient and the wound. The aim of this study is to review the various options for soft tissue reconstruction of complete circumferential defects in the upper extremity.MethodsA literature review of PubMed and MEDLINE up to December 2016 was performed. The current study focuses on forearm and arm defects from the level at or proximal to the wrist and were assessed based on Tajima's classification (J Trauma 1974. Data reviewed for analysis included patient demographics, causality, defect size, reconstructive technique(s employed, and postoperative follow-up and functional outcomes (when available.ResultsIn accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, 14 unique articles were identified for a total of 50 patients (mean=28.1 years. Underlying etiologies varied from extensive thermal or electrical burns to high impact trauma leading to degloving or avulsion, crush injuries, or even occur iatrogenically after tumor extirpation or extensive debridement. Treatment options ranged from the application of negative pressure wound dressings to the opposite end of the spectrum in hand transplantation.ConclusionsWith the evolution of reconstructive techniques over time, the extent of functional and aesthetic rehabilitation of these complex upper extremity injuries has also improved. The proposed management algorithm comprehensively addresses the inherent challenges associated with these complex cases.

  8. Comparison of the Porter-Thomas distribution with neutron resonance data of even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camarda, H.S.

    1994-01-01

    The low-energy neutron resonance data of the even-even nuclei 152 Sm, 158 Gd, 162 Dy, 166,168 Er, 182 W, 232 Th, and 236,238 U have been examined in order to test the validity of the Porter-Thomas distribution of the reduced neutron widths---a chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom (v=1). In an attempt to circumvent the ever-present problems of missed or spurious s wave levels as well as extra p wave levels, a maximum likelihood statistic was employed which used only measured widths greater than some minimum value. A Bayes-theory test applied to the data helped to ensure that p wave contamination of the s wave level population was not significant. The error-weighted value of the number of degrees of freedom for the nine nuclei studied, left-angle v right-angle=0.98±0.10, is consistent with the theoretical expectation of v=1

  9. Toxicity at the Edge of Life: A Review on Cyanobacterial Toxins from Extreme Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Cir?s, Samuel; Casero, Mar?a Cristina; Quesada, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Cyanotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by cyanobacteria, of varied chemical nature and toxic effects. Although cyanobacteria thrive in all kinds of ecosystems on Earth even under very harsh conditions, current knowledge on cyanotoxin distribution is almost restricted to freshwaters from temperate latitudes. In this review, we bring to the forefront the presence of cyanotoxins in extreme environments. Cyanotoxins have been reported especially in polar deserts (both from the Arctic and ...

  10. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.

    2015-04-10

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of interest may be very limited, efficient methods of inference play an important role. This article reviews this domain, emphasizing current research topics. We first sketch the classical theory of extremes for maxima and threshold exceedances of stationary series. We then review multivariate theory, distinguishing asymptotic independence and dependence models, followed by a description of models for spatial and spatiotemporal extreme events. Finally, we discuss inference and describe two applications. Animations illustrate some of the main ideas. © 2015 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  11. Nuclear spectroscopy of doubly-even130,132Ba

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Anuradha; Gupta, Surbhi; Singh, Suram; Bharti, Arun

    2018-05-01

    A comparative study of some high-spin characteristic nuclear structure properties of doubly-even 130,132Ba nuclei has been made using two microscopic frameworks - CHFB and PSM. The yrast spectra, intrinsic quadrupole moment and deformation systematics of these nuclei have been successfully calculated. Further, the calculated data from both the frameworks is also compared with the available experimental data and a good agreement has been obtained. The present CHFB calculations describes very well the low spin structure of even-even 130,132Ba nuclei whereas PSM calculations provide a qualitative description of the high-spin band structure of doubly-even 130,132Ba nuclei.

  12. When social inclusion is not enough: Implicit expectations of extreme inclusion in borderline personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Panfilis, Chiara; Riva, Paolo; Preti, Emanuele; Cabrino, Chiara; Marchesi, Carlo

    2015-10-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD) might feel rejected even when socially included by others. A psychological mechanism accounting for this response bias could be that objective social inclusion violates BPD patients' underlying implicit needs of "extreme" inclusion. Thus, this study investigated whether, during interpersonal exchanges, BPD patients report more rejection-related negative emotions and less feelings of social connection than controls unless they are faced with conditions of extreme social inclusion. Sixty-one BPD patients and 61 healthy controls completed a modified Cyberball paradigm. They were randomly assigned to a condition of ostracism, social inclusion, or overinclusion (a proxy for extreme social inclusion). They then rated their emotional states and feelings of social connection immediately and 20 min after the game. BPD patients reported greater levels of negative emotions than controls in the ostracism and the inclusion conditions, but not when overincluded. Furthermore, only for BPD participants was overinclusion associated with experiencing less negative emotions than the ostracism condition. However, BPD patients reported lower feelings of social connection than controls in any experimental situation. Thus, in BPD, a laboratory condition of "overinclusion" is associated with a reduction of negative emotions to levels comparable to those of control participants, but not with similar degrees of social connection. These results suggest that for BPD patients, even "including contexts" activate feelings of rejection. Their implicit expectations of idealized interpersonal inclusion may nullify the opportunity of experiencing "real" social connection and explain their distorted subjective experiences of rejection. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Plant Responses to Extreme Climatic Events: A Field Test of Resilience Capacity at the Southern Range Edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Asier; Zamora, Regino

    2014-01-01

    The expected and already observed increment in frequency of extreme climatic events may result in severe vegetation shifts. However, stabilizing mechanisms promoting community resilience can buffer the lasting impact of extreme events. The present work analyzes the resilience of a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem after an extreme drought in 2005, examining shoot-growth and needle-length resistance and resilience of dominant tree and shrub species (Pinus sylvestris vs Juniperus communis, and P. nigra vs J. oxycedrus) in two contrasting altitudinal ranges. Recorded high vegetative-resilience values indicate great tolerance to extreme droughts for the dominant species of pine-juniper woodlands. Observed tolerance could act as a stabilizing mechanism in rear range edges, such as the Mediterranean basin, where extreme events are predicted to be more detrimental and recurrent. However, resistance and resilience components vary across species, sites, and ontogenetic states: adult Pinus showed higher growth resistance than did adult Juniperus; saplings displayed higher recovery rates than did conspecific adults; and P. nigra saplings displayed higher resilience than did P. sylvestris saplings where the two species coexist. P. nigra and J. oxycedrus saplings at high and low elevations, respectively, were the most resilient at all the locations studied. Under recurrent extreme droughts, these species-specific differences in resistance and resilience could promote changes in vegetation structure and composition, even in areas with high tolerance to dry conditions. PMID:24489971

  14. Plant responses to extreme climatic events: a field test of resilience capacity at the southern range edge.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asier Herrero

    Full Text Available The expected and already observed increment in frequency of extreme climatic events may result in severe vegetation shifts. However, stabilizing mechanisms promoting community resilience can buffer the lasting impact of extreme events. The present work analyzes the resilience of a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem after an extreme drought in 2005, examining shoot-growth and needle-length resistance and resilience of dominant tree and shrub species (Pinus sylvestris vs Juniperus communis, and P. nigra vs J. oxycedrus in two contrasting altitudinal ranges. Recorded high vegetative-resilience values indicate great tolerance to extreme droughts for the dominant species of pine-juniper woodlands. Observed tolerance could act as a stabilizing mechanism in rear range edges, such as the Mediterranean basin, where extreme events are predicted to be more detrimental and recurrent. However, resistance and resilience components vary across species, sites, and ontogenetic states: adult Pinus showed higher growth resistance than did adult Juniperus; saplings displayed higher recovery rates than did conspecific adults; and P. nigra saplings displayed higher resilience than did P. sylvestris saplings where the two species coexist. P. nigra and J. oxycedrus saplings at high and low elevations, respectively, were the most resilient at all the locations studied. Under recurrent extreme droughts, these species-specific differences in resistance and resilience could promote changes in vegetation structure and composition, even in areas with high tolerance to dry conditions.

  15. A systematic fast-timing study of even-even nuclei in the well deformed A 170-180 region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jolie, J.; Regis, J.M.; Dannhoff, M.; Gerst, R.B.; Karayonchev, V.; Mueller-Gatermann, C.; Saed-Samii, N.; Stegemann, S.; Blazhev, A. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Universitaet zu Koeln (Germany); Rudigier, M. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Universitaet zu Koeln (Germany); Department of Physics, University of Surrey (United Kingdom)

    2016-07-01

    At the Cologne Tandem accelerator we are performing a systematic study of lifetimes in the ground state bands of well deformed even-even nuclei in order to increase the precision of the ns-ps lifetimes and to solve inconsistencies in the literature. The measurements are done using Orange spectrometers, LaBr{sub 3}(Ce) scintillators and Ge detectors. The data are analyzed using the slope and the generalized centroid difference method. The latter allows the measurement of lifetimes down to 5 ps. First results on Yb, Hf and W isotopes are presented.

  16. Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Brázdil, Rudolf; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Hofmann, Jutta; Kontic, Raymond; Kyncl, Tomáš; Pfister, Christian; Chromá, Kateřina; Tegel, Willy

    2011-12-01

    A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth's climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir ( Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 962-2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European April-June precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55°N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.

  17. Evolution of extreme high waters along the east coast of India and at the head of the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Antony, C.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Woodworth, P.L.

    . The highest water levels above mean sea level have the greatest magnitude towards the northern part of the Bay, which decreases towards its south-west. Extreme high waters were observed to result from a combination of moderate, or even small, surges with large...

  18. Evolution caused by extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Huey, Raymond B; Johnson, Marc T J; Knoll, Andrew H; Schmitt, Johanna

    2017-06-19

    Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  19. Reduced widths of alpha -decay of near-magic even-even nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Kar Yan, N

    1972-01-01

    Precision on-line investigations on the linear heavy-ion Berkeley accelerator, and on the CERN synchrophasotron were carried out recently on new alpha -emitters. The results obtained are analysed with a view to finding the degree of correspondence, or disagreement, with the authors' own ideas about alpha -decay processes. The discussion is confined to examining even isotopes of polonium, radon, radium and thorium Several theoretical and experimental plots are given of reduced widths of alpha -disintegration for different regions of shell filling and a comparison is made between barrier penetration coefficients, obtained by rigorous methods and with the aid of WKB- approximation, for /sup 212/Po, /sup 208/Po and /sup 212/Po isotopes. (24 refs).

  20. Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

    2018-04-01

    In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

  1. Deformation mechanisms in a coal mine roadway in extremely swelling soft rock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qinghai; Shi, Weiping; Yang, Renshu

    2016-01-01

    The problem of roadway support in swelling soft rock was one of the challenging problems during mining. For most geological conditions, combinations of two or more supporting approaches could meet the requirements of most roadways; however, in extremely swelling soft rock, combined approaches even could not control large deformations. The purpose of this work was to probe the roadway deformation mechanisms in extremely swelling soft rock. Based on the main return air-way in a coal mine, deformation monitoring and geomechanical analysis were conducted, as well as plastic zone mechanical model was analysed. Results indicated that this soft rock was potentially very swelling. When the ground stress acted alone, the support strength needed in situ was not too large and combined supporting approaches could meet this requirement; however, when this potential released, the roadway would undergo permanent deformation. When the loose zone reached 3 m within surrounding rock, remote stress p ∞ and supporting stress P presented a linear relationship. Namely, the greater the swelling stress, the more difficult it would be in roadway supporting. So in this extremely swelling soft rock, a better way to control roadway deformation was to control the releasing of surrounding rock's swelling potential.

  2. Electric-field-induced extremely large change in resistance in graphene ferromagnets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yu

    2018-01-01

    A colossal magnetoresistance (˜100×10^3% ) and an extremely large magnetoresistance (˜1×10^6% ) have been previously explored in manganite perovskites and Dirac materials, respectively. However, the requirement of an extremely strong magnetic field (and an extremely low temperature) makes them not applicable for realistic devices. In this work, we propose a device that can generate even larger changes in resistance in a zero-magnetic field and at a high temperature. The device is composed of graphene under two strips of yttrium iron garnet (YIG), where two gate voltages are applied to cancel the heavy charge doping in the YIG-induced half-metallic ferromagnets. By calculations using the Landauer-Büttiker formalism, we demonstrate that, when a proper gate voltage is applied on the free ferromagnet, changes in resistance up to 305×10^6% (16×10^3% ) can be achieved at the liquid helium (nitrogen) temperature and in a zero magnetic field. We attribute such a remarkable effect to a gate-induced full-polarization reversal in the free ferromagnet, which results in a metal-state to insulator-state transition in the device. We also find that the proposed effect can be realized in devices using other magnetic insulators, such as EuO and EuS. Our work should be helpful for developing a realistic switching device that is energy saving and CMOS-technology compatible.

  3. A systematic study of even-even nuclei in the nuclear chart by the relativistic mean field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumiyoshi, K.; Hirata, D.; Tanihata, I.; Sugahara, Y.; Toki, H. [Institute of Physical and Chemical Research, Wako, Saitama (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    We study systematically the properties of nuclei in the whole mass range up to the drip lines by the relativistic mean field (RMF) theory with deformations as a microscopic framework to provide the data of nuclear structure in the nuclear chart. The RMF theory is a phenomenological many-body framework, in which the self-consistent equations for nucleons and mesons are solved with arbitrary deformation, and has a potential ability to provide all the essential information of nuclear structure such as masses, radii and deformations together with single particle states and wave functions from the effective lagrangian containing nuclear interaction. As a first step toward the whole project, we study the ground state properties of even-even nuclei ranging from Z=8 to Z=120 up to the proton and neutron drip lines in the RMF theory. We adopt the parameter set TMA, which has been determined by the experimental masses and charge radii in a wide mass range, for the effective lagrangian of the RMF theory. We take into account the axially symmetric deformation using the constrained method on the quadrupole moment. We provide the properties of all even-even nuclei with all the possible ground state deformations extracted from the deformation energy curves by the constrained calculations. By studying the calculated ground state properties systematically, we aim to explore the general trend of masses, radii and deformations in the whole region of the nuclear chart. We discuss the agreement with experimental data and the predictions such as magicness and triaxial deformations beyond the experimental frontier. (author)

  4. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  5. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël

    2015-11-17

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  6. A comparative analysis of alpha-decay half-lives for even-even 178Pb to 234U isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, S. S.; Hassanabadi, H.; Zarrinkamar, S.

    2018-02-01

    The feasibility for the alpha decay from the even-even transitions of 178Pb to 234U isotopes has been studied within the Coulomb and proximity potential model (CPPM). The alpha decay half-lives are considered from different theoretical approaches using Semi-empirical formula of Poenaru et al. (SemFIS), the Universal Decay law (UDL) of Qi et al., Akrawy-Dorin formula of Akrawy and Poenaru (ADF), the Scaling law of Brown (SLB) and the Scaling Law of Horoi et al. (SLH). The numerical results obtained by the CPPM and compared with other method as well the experimental data.

  7. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  8. Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

    1997-12-31

    A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

  9. Extreme river flow dependence in Northern Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, M. Franco; Scott, M.; Hoey, T.; Fischbacher-Smith, D.

    2012-04-01

    predominantly impermeable bedrock, with the Ewe's one being very wet. The Lossie(216km2) and Dulnain (272.2km2) both contain significant areas of glacial deposits. River flow in the Dulnain is usually affected by snowmelt. In all cases, the conditional probability of each of the three rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe) decreases as the event in the conditioning river (Ness) becomes more extreme. The Ewe, despite being the furthest of the three sites from the Ness shows the strongest dependence, with relatively high (>0.4) conditional probabilities even for very extreme events (>0.995). Although the Lossie is closer geographically to the Ness than the Ewe, it shows relatively low conditional probabilities and can be considered independent of the Ness for very extreme events (> 0.990). The conditional probabilities seem to reflect the different catchment characteristics and dominant precipitation generating events, with the Ewe being more similar to the Ness than the other two rivers. This interpretation suggests that the conditional method may yield improved estimates of extreme events, but the approach is time consuming. An alternative model that is easier to implement, using a spatial quantile regression, is currently being investigated, which would also allow the introduction of further covariates, essential as the effects of climate change are incorporated into estimation procedures.

  10. Cryptococcoma mimicking a brain tumor in an immunocompetent patient: case report of an extremely rare presentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Aline Lariessy Campos; Aguiar, Guilherme Brasileiro de; Lovato, Renan Maximilian; Zanetti, Arthus Vilar Deolindo; Panagopoulos, Alexandros Theodoros; Veiga, José Carlos Esteves

    2017-11-06

    Central nervous system (CNS) infectious diseases have high prevalence in developing countries and their proper diagnosis and treatment are very important for public health planning. Cryptococcus neoformans is a fungus that may cause several CNS manifestations, especially in immunocompromised patients. Cryptococcal meningitis is the most common type of involvement. Mass-effect lesions are uncommon: they are described as cryptococcomas and their prevalence is even lower among immunocompetent patients. The aim here was to report an extremely rare case of cryptococcoma causing a mass effect and mimicking a brain tumor in an immunocompetent patient. The literature on CNS cryptococcal infections was reviewed with emphasis on cryptococcomas. Clinical, surgical and radiological data on a female patient with this rare presentation of cryptococcoma mimicking a brain tumor are described. A 54-year-old female patient presented to the emergency department with a rapid-onset progressive history of confusion and completely dependency for basic activities. Neuroimaging showed a left occipital lesion and neurosurgical treatment was proposed. From histopathological evaluation, a diagnosis of cryptococcoma was established. She received clinical support with antifungals, but despite optimal clinical treatment, her condition evolved to death. Cryptococcal infections have several forms of presentation and, in immunocompetent patients, their manifestation may be even more different. Cryptococcoma is an extremely rare presentation in which proper surgical and clinical treatment should be instituted as quickly as possible, but even so, there is a high mortality rate.

  11. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

  12. Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

    2014-09-01

    Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

  13. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

  14. Break-even analysis in a nurse-managed center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBryde-Foster, Merry J

    2005-01-01

    The concept of break-even analysis as a financial assessment tool is defined and demonstrated in evaluation of a proposed nurse-managed center. The advantages of using break-even analysis during proposal development are explored.

  15. Anomalous Josephson Effect between Even-and Odd-Frequency Superconductors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tanaka, Yukio; Golubov, Alexandre Avraamovitch; Kashiwaya, Satoshi; Ueda, Masahito

    2007-01-01

    We demonstrate that, contrary to standard wisdom, the lowest-order Josephson coupling is possible between odd- and even-frequency superconductors. The origin of this effect is the induced odd- (even-)frequency pairing component at the interface of bulk even- (odd-)frequency superconductors. The

  16. A note on extreme sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radosław Cymer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In decomposition theory, extreme sets have been studied extensively due to its connection to perfect matchings in a graph. In this paper, we first define extreme sets with respect to degree-matchings and next investigate some of their properties. In particular, we prove the generalized Decomposition Theorem and give a characterization for the set of all extreme vertices in a graph.

  17. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  18. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  19. Extremely deformable structures

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a new research stimulus has derived from the observation that soft structures, such as biological systems, but also rubber and gel, may work in a post critical regime, where elastic elements are subject to extreme deformations, though still exhibiting excellent mechanical performances. This is the realm of ‘extreme mechanics’, to which this book is addressed. The possibility of exploiting highly deformable structures opens new and unexpected technological possibilities. In particular, the challenge is the design of deformable and bi-stable mechanisms which can reach superior mechanical performances and can have a strong impact on several high-tech applications, including stretchable electronics, nanotube serpentines, deployable structures for aerospace engineering, cable deployment in the ocean, but also sensors and flexible actuators and vibration absorbers. Readers are introduced to a variety of interrelated topics involving the mechanics of extremely deformable structures, with emphasis on ...

  20. Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario in southeast China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Weilin; Jiang, Zhihong [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing (China); Li, Laurent [IPSL/CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Yiou, Pascal [IPSL, UMR CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2011-02-15

    A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, LMDZ, with a local zoom over southeast China is used to investigate regional climate changes in terms of both means and extremes. Two time slices of 30 years are chosen to represent, respectively, the end of the 20th century and the middle of the 21st century. The lower-boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and sea-ice extension) are taken from the outputs of three global coupled climate models: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Results from a two-way nesting system between LMDZ-global and LMDZ-regional are also presented. The evaluation of simulated temperature and precipitation for the current climate shows that LMDZ reproduces generally well the spatial distribution of mean climate and extreme climate events in southeast China, but the model has systematic cold biases in temperature and tends to overestimate the extreme precipitation. The two-way nesting model can reduce the ''cold bias'' to some extent compared to the one-way nesting model. Results with greenhouse gas forcing from the SRES-A2 emission scenario show that there is a significant increase for mean, daily-maximum and minimum temperature in the entire region, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and an increase in the heat wave duration. The annual frost days are projected to significantly decrease by 12-19 days while the heat wave duration to increase by about 7 days. A warming environment gives rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. Except two simulations (LMDZ/GFDL and LMDZ/IPSL2) that project a decrease in maximum 5-day precipitation (R5d) for winter, other precipitation extremes are projected to increase over most of southeast China in all seasons, and among the three global scenarios. The domain-averaged values for annual simple daily intensity index (SDII), R5d and fraction of

  1. Distant Migration of Multiple Siliconomas in Lower Extremities following Breast Implant Rupture: Case Report

    OpenAIRE

    Oh, Joo Hyun; Song, Seung Yong; Lew, Dae Hyun; Lee, Dong Won

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Siliconoma from ruptured breast implants has been reported in multiple body sites, including but not limited to the breast parenchyma, axillary lymph nodes, upper arm, and even lower leg. In this regard, we report a rare case of distant silicone migration to the lower extremities after traumatic breast implant rupture. A 55-year-old Asian woman who received bilateral augmentation mammoplasty 20 years ago presented with ruptured breast implants from a car accident 2 years earlier. Mag...

  2. VARIABILITY OF THE INFRARED EXCESS OF EXTREME DEBRIS DISKS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Huan Y. A.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L.; Rujopakarn, Wiphu; Ivanov, Valentin D.; Vanzi, Leonardo

    2012-01-01

    Debris disks with extremely large infrared excesses (fractional luminosities >10 –2 ) are rare. Those with ages between 30 and 130 Myr are of interest because their evolution has progressed well beyond that of protoplanetary disks (which dissipate with a timescale of order 3 Myr), yet they represent a period when dynamical models suggest that terrestrial planet building may still be progressing through large, violent collisions that could yield large amounts of debris and large infrared excesses. For example, our Moon was formed through a violent collision of two large protoplanets during this age range. We report two disks around the solar-like stars ID8 and HD 23514 in this age range where the 24 μm infrared excesses vary on timescales of a few years, even though the stars are not variable in the optical. Variations this rapid are difficult to understand if the debris is produced by collisional cascades, as it is for most debris disks. It is possible that the debris in these two systems arises in part from condensates from silicate-rich vapor produced in a series of violent collisions among relatively large bodies. If their evolution is rapid, the rate of detection of extreme excesses would indicate that major collisions may be relatively common in this age range.

  3. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user1

    extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

  4. E2,M1 multipole mixing ratios in even--even nuclei, A greater than or equal to 152

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krane, K.S.

    1975-01-01

    A survey is presented of E2,M1 mixing ratios of gamma-ray transitions in even-even nuclei with mass numbers A greater than or equal to 152. Angular distribution and correlation data from the literature are analyzed in terms of a consistent choice of the phase relationship between the E2 and M1 matrix elements. The cutoff date for the literature was June 1975. Based on an average of the experimental results from the literature, a recommended value of the E2,M1 mixing ratio for each transition is included

  5. Distinct Evening Fatigue Profiles in Oncology Outpatients Receiving Chemotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Fay; Cooper, Bruce A.; Conley, Yvette P.; Hammer, Marilyn J.; Chen, Lee-May; Paul, Steven M.; Levine, Jon D.; Miaskowski, Christine; Kober, Kord M.

    2018-01-01

    Background Fatigue is the most common and debilitating symptom experienced by oncology patients during chemotherapy (CTX). Fatigue severity demonstrates a large amount of inter-individual and diurnal variability. Purpose Study purposes were to evaluate for subgroups of patients with distinct evening fatigue profiles and evaluate how these subgroups differed on demographic, clinical, and symptom characteristics. Methods Outpatients with breast, gastrointestinal, gynecological, or lung cancer (n=1332) completed questionnaires six times over two cycles of CTX. Lee Fatigue Scale (LFS) evaluated evening fatigue severity. Latent profile analysis was used to identify distinct evening fatigue profiles. Results Four distinct evening fatigue classes (i.e., Low (14.0%), Moderate (17.2%), High (36.0%), Very High (32.8%)) were identified. Compared to the Low class, patients in the Very High evening fatigue class were: younger, female, had childcare responsibilities, had more years of education, had a lower functional status, had a higher comorbidity burden, and were diagnosed with breast cancer. Patients in the Very High class reported higher levels of depressive symptoms, sleep disturbance, and evening fatigue at enrollment. Conclusions Findings provide new insights into modifiable risk factors for higher levels of evening fatigue. Clinicians can use this information to identify higher risk patients and plan appropriate interventions. PMID:29725554

  6. Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Rieder

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs and high (termed EHOs total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima, and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss, and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

  7. Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Marsh, Stuart; Campus, Paola

    2013-04-01

    knowledge, particularly during the early warning phase, can reduce disasters. This suggests that a strong global monitoring system for geohazards is needed, not least to support the early detection of extreme hazards. Secondly, low risk awareness combined with poverty, corruption, and a lack of building codes and informed land use management creates the conditions to turn hazards into disasters throughout much of the developing world. Democratizing knowledge about extreme geohazards is very important in order to inform deliberations of disaster risks and community strategies that can reduce the disaster risk by increasing resilience and adaptive capacities without compromising the livelihood of communities. We use a four-order scheme to define disaster risk outcomes and associated societal processes. This framework can be implemented in the context of deliberative democracy and governance with participation of the community. The current dialog between science and society is not fully capable of supporting deliberative governance and a democratizing of knowledge. Most scientific knowledge is created independent of those who could put it to use, and a transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary to address the disaster risk associated with extreme events. This transition may have the consequence of more responsibility and even liability for science.

  8. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rámila, Consuelo D P; Contreras, Samuel A; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pizarro, Gonzalo E

    2016-11-05

    Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  10. Bannayan-Riley-Ruvalcaba syndrome: a cause of extreme macrocephaly and neurodevelopmental delay.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Lynch, N E

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Bannayan-Riley-Ruvalcaba syndrome (BRRS) is an autosomal dominant condition characterised by macrocephaly, developmental delay and subtle cutaneous features. BRRS results from mutations in the PTEN gene. In adults, PTEN mutations cause Cowden syndrome where, in addition to the macrocephaly, there is a higher risk of tumour development. Diagnosis of BRRS is often delayed as presentation can be variable, even within families. AIMS: To identify characteristics of this condition which might facilitate early diagnosis. Prompt diagnosis not only avoids unnecessary investigations in the child but potentially identifies heterozygote parents who are at risk of tumour development. METHODS AND RESULTS: Six children with a PTEN mutation were identified. All had extreme macrocephaly. Four parents and a male sibling were found to have a PTEN mutation on subsequent testing. Affected parents had extreme macrocephaly and a history of thyroid adenoma, or breast or skin lesions. All six children had presented to medical attention before the age of 2.5 years (3\\/6 were investigated as neonates), but the median age at diagnosis was 5 years. Four of the children had multiple investigations prior to identification of a PTEN mutation. CONCLUSION: BRRS should be considered in children with extreme macrocephaly as it is the most consistent clinical feature seen, particularly where there is a family history of macrocephaly.

  11. Outcome for the extremely premature neonate: how far do we push the edge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boat, Anne C; Sadhasivam, Senthilkumar; Loepke, Andreas W; Kurth, Charles D

    2011-07-01

    Significant advances in perinatal and neonatal medicine over the last 20 years and the recent emergence of fetal surgery has resulted in anesthesia providers caring for a growing number of infants born at the margin of viability. Anesthetic management in this patient population has to take into consideration the immature function of many vital organ systems as well as the effects of the underlying disease processes, which can frequently lead to severe physiological derangements. Accordingly, premature infants presenting for major surgeries early in life can represent a significant anesthetic challenge. However, even with advanced anesthetic and surgical management and optimal intensive care, extremely premature infants face substantial postoperative morbidity and mortality, as well as prolonged hospital courses. In this article, we will discuss the following questions: How far have we come in improving outcomes of extreme prematurity? And what will the future medical and societal challenges be, as we continue to redefine the limits of viability? © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Experimental characterization of extreme events of inertial dissipation in a turbulent swirling flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, E. -W.; Kuzzay, D.; Faranda, D.; Guittonneau, A.; Daviaud, F.; Wiertel-Gasquet, C.; Padilla, V.; Dubrulle, B.

    2016-01-01

    The three-dimensional incompressible Navier–Stokes equations, which describe the motion of many fluids, are the cornerstones of many physical and engineering sciences. However, it is still unclear whether they are mathematically well posed, that is, whether their solutions remain regular over time or develop singularities. Even though it was shown that singularities, if exist, could only be rare events, they may induce additional energy dissipation by inertial means. Here, using measurements at the dissipative scale of an axisymmetric turbulent flow, we report estimates of such inertial energy dissipation and identify local events of extreme values. We characterize the topology of these extreme events and identify several main types. Most of them appear as fronts separating regions of distinct velocities, whereas events corresponding to focusing spirals, jets and cusps are also found. Our results highlight the non-triviality of turbulent flows at sub-Kolmogorov scales as possible footprints of singularities of the Navier–Stokes equation. PMID:27578459

  13. Prediction of energies of yrast band in some even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varshney, A.K.; Singh, Yuvraj; Gupta, D.K.; Singh, M.; Gupta, K.K.; Bihari, Chhail; Dhiman, S.K.

    2012-01-01

    The deformation parameter β and γ of the collective model of Bohr and Mottelson are basic descriptors of the nuclear equilibrium shape and structure. The researchers found that the values of γ obtained from energies (= γ e ) are nearly equal to the value of γ derived from transition rate (= γ b ) in even Xe, Ba and Ce nuclei (A∼120-140) and Hf, W, Os, Pt and Hg nuclei (A∼160-200) using rigid triaxial rotor model of Davydov-Filippov. In the present study, the relatively light mass nuclei (Mo, Ru and Pd) have been taken. As far as γ is concerned, it is known that the Ru chains of nuclei is intermediate between the two having opposite trends for parameter γ, decreasing for Mo and increasing for Pd, and has an irregular behaviour in itself with the increase of neutron number

  14. 34 CFR 200.80 - Migrant Education Even Start Program definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Migrant Education Even Start Program definition. 200.80... DISADVANTAGED Even Start Family Literacy Program § 200.80 Migrant Education Even Start Program definition. Eligible participants under the Migrant Education Even Start Program (MEES) must meet the definitions of a...

  15. Low-mass Stars with Extreme Mid-Infrared Excesses: Potential Signatures of Planetary Collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theissen, Christopher; West, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    I investigate the occurrence of extreme mid-infrared (MIR) excesses, a tracer of large amounts of dust orbiting stars, in low-mass stellar systems. Extreme MIR excesses, defined as an excess IR luminosity greater than 1% of the stellar luminosity (LIR/L* ≥ 0.01), have previously only been observed around a small number of solar-mass (M⊙) stars. The origin of this excess has been hypothesized to be massive amounts of orbiting dust, created by collisions between terrestrial planets or large planetesimals. Until recently, there was a dearth of low-mass (M* ≤ 0.6M⊙) stars exhibiting extreme MIR excesses, even though low-mass stars are ubiquitous (~70% of all stars), and known to host multiple terrestrial planets (≥ 3 planets per star).I combine the spectroscopic sample of low-mass stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 (70,841 stars) with MIR photometry from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), to locate stars exhibiting extreme MIR excesses. I find the occurrence frequency of low-mass field stars (stars with ages ≥ 1 Gyr) exhibiting extreme MIR excesses is much larger than that for higher-mass field stars (0.41 ± 0.03% versus 0.00067 ± 0.00033%, respectively).In addition, I build a larger sample of low-mass stars based on stellar colors and proper motions using SDSS, WISE, and the Two-Micron All-Sky Survey (8,735,004 stars). I also build a galactic model to simulate stellar counts and kinematics to estimate the number of stars missing from my sample. I perform a larger, more complete study of low-mass stars exhibiting extreme MIR excesses, and find a lower occurrence frequency (0.020 ± 0.001%) than found in the spectroscopic sample but that is still orders of magnitude larger than that for higher-mass stars. I find a slight trend for redder stars (lower-mass stars) to exhibit a higher occurrence frequency of extreme MIR excesses, as well as a lower frequency with increased stellar age. These samples probe important

  16. Results of a prospective randomized controlled trial of early ambulation for patients with lower extremity autografts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorello, David John; Peck, Michael; Albrecht, Marlene; Richey, Karen J; Pressman, Melissa A

    2014-01-01

    It is common practice to keep those patients with lower extremity autografts immobile until post-operative day (POD) 5. There is however inherent risks associated with even short periods of immobility. As of now there are no randomized controlled trials looking at early ambulation of patients with lower extremity autografts in the burn community.The objective of this study was to show that patients who begin ambulation within 24 hours of lower extremity autografting will have no increased risk of graft failure than those patients who remain immobile until POD 5. Thirty-one subjects who received autografts to the lower extremity were randomized after surgery into either the early ambulation group (EAG;17 subjects) or the standard treatment group (STG;14 subjects). Those subjects randomized to the EAG began ambulating with physical therapy on POD 1. Subjects in the STG maintained bed rest until POD 5. There was no difference in the number of patients with graft loss in either the EAG or STG on POD 5, and during any of the follow-up visits. No subjects required regrafting. There was a significant difference in the mean minutes of ambulation, with the EAG ambulating longer than the STG (EAG 23.4 minutes [SD 12.03], STG 14.1 [SD 9.00], P=.0235) on POD 5. Burn patients with lower extremity autografts can safely ambulate on POD 1 without fear of graft failure compared with those patients that remain on bed rest for 5 days.

  17. Extreme Precipitation, Stormwater, and Flooding in King County: Co-producing Research to Support Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauger, G. S.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.; Mitchell, T. P.; Simmonds, J.; Lee, S. Y.; Hegewisch, K.; Warner, M.; Won, J.

    2017-12-01

    King County has experienced 12 federally declared flood disasters since 1990, and tens of thousands of county residents commute through, live, and work in floodplains. In addition to flooding, stormwater is a critical management challenge, exacerbated by aging infrastructure, combined sewer and drainage systems, and continued development. Even absent the effects of climate change these are challenging management issues. Recent studies clearly point to an increase in precipitation extremes for the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Warner et al. 2015). Yet very little information is available on the magnitude and spatial distribution of this change. Others clearly show that local-scale changes in extreme precipitation can only be accurately quantified with dynamical downscaling, i.e.: using a regional climate model. This talk will describe a suite of research and adaptation efforts developed in a close collaboration between King County and the UW Climate Impacts Group. Building on past collaborations, research efforts were defined in collaboration with King County managers, addressing three key science questions: (1) How are the mesoscale variations in extreme precipitation modulated by changes in large-scale weather conditions? (2) How will precipitation extremes change? This was assessed via two new high-resolution regional model projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model (Skamarock et al. 2005). (3) What are the implications for stormwater and flooding in King County? This was assessed by both exploring the statistics of hourly precipitation extremes in the new projections, as well as new hydrologic modeling to assess the implications for river flooding. The talk will present results from these efforts, review the implications for King County planning and infrastructure, and synthesize lessons learned and opportunities for additional work.

  18. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  19. Extremal graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bollobas, Bela

    2004-01-01

    The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

  20. Analytic Electron Trajectories in an Extremely Relativistic Helical Wiggler an Application to the Proposed SLAC E166 Experiment.

    CERN Document Server

    ThomasDonohue, John

    2004-01-01

    The proposed experiment SLAC E166 intends to generate circularly polarized gamma rays of energy 10 MeV by passing a 15 GeV electron beam through a meter long wiggler with approximately 400 periods. Using an analytic model formulated by Rullier and me, I present calculations of electron trajectories. At this extremely high energy the trajectories are described quite well by the model, and an extremely simple picture emerges, even for trajectories that that fail to encircle the axis of the wiggler. Our calculations are successfully compared with standard numerical integration of the Lorentz force equations of motion. In addition, the calculation of the spectrum and angular distribution of the radiated photons is easily carried out.

  1. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rámila, Consuelo d.P.; Contreras, Samuel A.; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A.; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • P. frigida presents an extremely high boron toxicity threshold. • Restricting uptake and internal tolerance mechanisms could confer boron tolerance. • P. frigida is a boron hyperaccumulator over a wide range of concentrations. • The species has potential for phytoremediation purposes. - Abstract: Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500 mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000 mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems.

  2. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rámila, Consuelo d.P. [Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, 7820436 Santiago (Chile); Contreras, Samuel A.; Di Domenico, Camila [Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, 7820436 Santiago (Chile); Molina-Montenegro, Marco A. [Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo (Chile); Instituto de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Talca, Avda. Lircay s/n, Talca (Chile); Vega, Andrea [Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, 7820436 Santiago (Chile); Handford, Michael [Departmento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Avenida Las Palmeras 3425, 7800024 Santiago (Chile); Bonilla, Carlos A. [Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, 7820436 Santiago (Chile); Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable (CEDEUS), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, 7820436 Santiago (Chile); and others

    2016-11-05

    Highlights: • P. frigida presents an extremely high boron toxicity threshold. • Restricting uptake and internal tolerance mechanisms could confer boron tolerance. • P. frigida is a boron hyperaccumulator over a wide range of concentrations. • The species has potential for phytoremediation purposes. - Abstract: Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500 mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000 mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems.

  3. Severe/Extreme Hypertriglyceridemia and LDL Apheretic Treatment: Review of the Literature, Original Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Diakoumakou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG is a feature of numerous metabolic disorders including dyslipidemias, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes mellitus type 2 and can increase the risk of premature coronary artery disease. HTG may also be due to genetic factors (called primary HTG and particularly the severe/extreme HTG (SEHTG, which is a usually rare genetic disorder. Even rarer are secondary cases of SEHTG caused by autoimmune disease. This review considers the causes of SEHTG, and their management including treatment with low density lipoprotein apheresis and analyzes the original findings.

  4. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

  5. Systematics of B(E2;01+→21+) values for even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raman, S.; Nestor, C.W. Jr.; Bhatt, K.H.

    1988-01-01

    We have completed a compilation of experimental results for the electric quadrupole transition probability B(E2)up-arrow between the 0 + ground state and the first 2 + state in even-even nuclei. The adopted B(E2)up-arrow values have been employed to test the various systematic, empirical, and theoretical relationships proposed by several authors (Grodzins, Bohr and Mottelson, Wang et al., Ross and Bhaduri, Patnaik et al., Hamamoto, Casten, Moeller and Nix, and Kumar) on a global, local, or regional basis. These systematics offer methods for making reasonable predictions of unmeasured B(E2) values. For nuclei away from closed shells, the SU(3) limit of the intermediate boson approximation implies that the B(E2)up-arrow values are proportional to (e/sub p/N/sub p/+e/sub n/N/sub n/) 2 , where e/sub p /(e/sub n/) is the proton (neutron) effective charge and N/sub p/ (N/sub n/) refers to the number of valence protons (neutrons). This proportionality is consistent with the observed behavior of B(E2)up-arrow vs N/sub p/N/sub n/. For deformed nuclei and the actinides, the B(E2)up-arrow values calculated in a schematic single-particle ''SU(3)'' simulation or large single-j simulation of major shells successfully reproduce not only the empirical variation of the B(E2)up-arrow values but also the observed saturation of these values when plotted against N/sub p/N/sub n/. .AE

  6. SOI N-Channel Field Effect Transistors, CHT-NMOS80, for Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Almad

    2009-01-01

    Extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, are anticipated in many of NASA space exploration missions as well as in terrestrial applications. One can seldom find electronics that are capable of operation under both regimes. Even for operation under one (hot or cold) temperature extreme, some thermal controls need to be introduced to provide appropriate ambient temperatures so that spacecraft on-board or field on-site electronic systems work properly. The inclusion of these controls, which comprise of heating elements and radiators along with their associated structures, adds to the complexity in the design of the system, increases cost and weight, and affects overall reliability. Thus, it would be highly desirable and very beneficial to eliminate these thermal measures in order to simplify system's design, improve efficiency, reduce development and launch costs, and improve reliability. These requirements can only be met through the development of electronic parts that are designed for proper and efficient operation under extreme temperature conditions. Silicon-on-insulator (SOI) based devices are finding more use in harsh environments due to the benefits that their inherent design offers in terms of reduced leakage currents, less power consumption, faster switching speeds, good radiation tolerance, and extreme temperature operability. Little is known, however, about their performance at cryogenic temperatures and under wide thermal swings. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of a new commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) SOI parts over an extended temperature range and to determine the effects of thermal cycling on their performance. The results will establish a baseline on the suitability of such devices for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperatures, and will aid mission planners and circuit designers in the proper selection of electronic parts and circuits. The electronic part investigated in this work comprised of a CHT-NMOS80

  7. Neurodevelopmental problems and extremes in BMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nóra Kerekes

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Over the last few decades, an increasing number of studies have suggested a connection between neurodevelopmental problems (NDPs and body mass index (BMI. Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD and autism spectrum disorders (ASD both seem to carry an increased risk for developing extreme BMI. However, the results are inconsistent, and there have been only a few studies of the general population of children.Aims. We had three aims with the present study: (1 to define the prevalence of extreme (low or high BMI in the group of children with ADHD and/or ASDs compared to the group of children without these NDPs; (2 to analyze whether extreme BMI is associated with the subdomains within the diagnostic categories of ADHD or ASD; and (3 to investigate the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to BMI in boys and girls at ages 9 and 12.Method. Parents of 9- or 12-year-old twins (n = 12,496 were interviewed using the Autism—Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities (A-TAC inventory as part of the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS. Univariate and multivariate generalized estimated equation models were used to analyze associations between extremes in BMI and NDPs.Results. ADHD screen-positive cases followed BMI distributions similar to those of children without ADHD or ASD. Significant association was found between ADHD and BMI only among 12-year-old girls, where the inattention subdomain of ADHD was significantly associated with the high extreme BMI. ASD scores were associated with both the low and the high extremes of BMI. Compared to children without ADHD or ASD, the prevalence of ASD screen-positive cases was three times greater in the high extreme BMI group and double as much in the low extreme BMI group. Stereotyped and repetitive behaviors were significantly associated with high extreme BMIs.Conclusion. Children with ASD, with or without coexisting ADHD, are more prone to have low or high extreme BMIs than

  8. Hydrogen at extreme pressures (Review Article)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goncharov, Alexander F.; Howie, Ross T.; Gregoryanz Eugene

    2013-01-01

    Here we review recent experimental and theoretical studies of hydrogen approaching metallization regime. Experimental techniques have made great advances over the last several years making it possible to reach previously unachievable conditions of pressure and temperature and to probe hydrogen at these conditions. Theoretical methods have also greatly improved; exemplified through the prediction of new structural and ordered quantum states. Recently, a new solid phase of hydrogen, phase IV, has been discovered in a high-pressure high-temperature domain. This phase is quite unusual structurally and chemically as it represents an intermediate state between common molecular and monatomic configurations. Moreover, it shows remarkable fluxional characteristics related to its quantum nature, which makes it unique among the solid phases, even of light elements. However, phase IV shows the presence of a band gap and exhibits distinct phonon and libron characteristic of classical solids. The quantum behavior of hydrogen in the limit of very high pressure remains an open question. Prospects of studying hydrogen at more extreme conditions by static and combined static-dynamic methods are also presented.

  9. Adaptation of Bacillus subtilis to Life at Extreme Potassium Limitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundlach, Jan; Herzberg, Christina; Hertel, Dietrich; Thürmer, Andrea; Daniel, Rolf; Link, Hannes; Stülke, Jörg

    2017-07-05

    Potassium is the most abundant metal ion in every living cell. This ion is essential due to its requirement for the activity of the ribosome and many enzymes but also because of its role in buffering the negative charge of nucleic acids. As the external concentrations of potassium are usually low, efficient uptake and intracellular enrichment of the ion is necessary. The Gram-positive bacterium Bacillus subtilis possesses three transporters for potassium, KtrAB, KtrCD, and the recently discovered KimA. In the absence of the high-affinity transporters KtrAB and KimA, the bacteria were unable to grow at low potassium concentrations. However, we observed the appearance of suppressor mutants that were able to overcome the potassium limitation. All these suppressor mutations affected amino acid metabolism, particularly arginine biosynthesis. In the mutants, the intracellular levels of ornithine, citrulline, and arginine were strongly increased, suggesting that these amino acids can partially substitute for potassium. This was confirmed by the observation that the supplementation with positively charged amino acids allows growth of B. subtilis even at the extreme potassium limitation that the bacteria experience if no potassium is added to the medium. In addition, a second class of suppressor mutations allowed growth at extreme potassium limitation. These mutations result in increased expression of KtrAB, the potassium transporter with the highest affinity and therefore allow the acquisition and accumulation of the smallest amounts of potassium ions from the environment. IMPORTANCE Potassium is essential for every living cell as it is required for the activity for many enzymes and for maintaining the intracellular pH by buffering the negative charge of the nucleic acids. We have studied the adaptation of the soil bacterium Bacillus subtilis to life at low potassium concentrations. If the major high-affinity transporters are missing, the bacteria are unable to grow

  10. Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

  11. Two quasi-particle excitations with particle-hole core polarization in even-even single closed shell nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillet, V.; Giraud, B.; Rho, M.

    1976-01-01

    The energy levels and transition properties of the even-even N=28, 50 isotones and Z=28, 50, 82 isotopes are calculated in the framework of the Tamm-Dancoff and Random Phase Approximation, with an effective central interaction in an extended space consisting of two quasi-particle configurations for the open shell and particle-hole configurations for the closed core. Using the results of the Inverse Gap Equation Method, practically all the necessary input data (single quasi-particle energies, force strength) are extracted from the odd-mass nuclei. The ratios of the force components are kept at fixed values for all studied nuclei and no effective charge is used. An overall excellent agreement is obtained for the energies of the vibrational states. On the other hand, while the transition properties of the 3 - states are always well reproduced, those of the 2 + and 4 + states are often too small by about one order of magnitude [fr

  12. Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

    2016-04-01

    The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of

  13. Characteristic 7- and 5- states observed in the (p,t) reactions on even-even rare earth nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishizaki, Y.; Kubono, S.; Iwasaki, Y.

    1984-01-01

    The (p,t) reactions have been studied for the even-even rare earth nuclei with 40 MeV proton beam from the INS SF cyclotron. A pair of 7 - and 5 - states was observed with large cross sections in each of the nuclei with the neutron number (N) ranging from 86 to 100. For sup(140,142)Nd of N = 80 and 82 the data were obtained at KVI in Groningen, and the data for 152 Sm of N = 90 at MSU. Q value systematics of (p,t) reactions to these states seem to suggest that these are excited by the two neutron pick-up from the neutron core of N = 82. The (p,t) cross sections leading to these states of N from 82 to 96 are nearly constant. (author)

  14. Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

    2016-01-01

    Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

  15. Assessment of extreme value distributions for maximum temperature in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Alexander; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2015-04-01

    Extreme maximum temperatures highly affect the natural as well as the societal environment Heat stress has great effects on flora, fauna and humans and culminates in heat related morbidity and mortality. Agriculture and different industries are severely affected by extreme air temperatures. Even more under climate change conditions, it is necessary to detect potential hazards which arise from changes in the distributional parameters of extreme values, and this is especially relevant for the Mediterranean region which is characterized as a climate change hot spot. Therefore statistical approaches are developed to estimate these parameters with a focus on non-stationarities emerging in the relationship between regional climate variables and their large-scale predictors like sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric temperatures and relative humidity. Gridded maximum temperature data from the daily E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from January 1950 until December 2012 are the predictands for the present analyses. A s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) has been performed in order to reduce data dimension and to retain different regions of similar maximum temperature variability. The grid box with the highest PC-loading represents the corresponding principal component. A central part of the analyses is the model development for temperature extremes under the use of extreme value statistics. A combined model is derived consisting of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model and a quantile regression (QR) model which determines the GPD location parameters. The QR model as well as the scale parameters of the GPD model are conditioned by various large-scale predictor variables. In order to account for potential non-stationarities in the predictors-temperature relationships, a special calibration and validation scheme is applied, respectively. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P

  16. Symmetries of Quadrupole-Collective Vibrational Motion in Transitional Even-Even 124−134Xenon Nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Pietralla, N; Rainovski, G; Ahn, T; Bauer, C; Leske, J; Möller, O; Möller, T

    2010-01-01

    Projectile-Coulomb excitation of Xe isotopes has been performed at ANL using the Gammasphere array for the detection of γ-rays. The one-quadrupole phonon 2+ 1,ms mixed-symmetry state (MSS) has been traced in the stable N=80 isotones down to 134Xe. First, the data on absolute E2 andM1 transition rates quantify the amount of F-spin symmetry in these nuclei and provide a new local measure for the pn-QQ interaction. Second, the evolution of the 2+ 1,ms state has been studied along the sequence of stable even-even 124−134Xe isotopes that are considered to form a shape transition path from vibrational nuclei with vibrational U(5) symmetry near N=82 to γ-softly deformed shapes with almost O(6) symmetry. Third, our data on more than 50 absolute E2 transition rates between off-yrast low-spin states of 124,126Xe enable us to quantitatively test O(6) symmetry in these nuclei. As a result we find that O(6) symmetry is more strongly broken in the A=130 mass region than previously thought. The data will be discussed.

  17. AN INVESTIGATION OF THE ENERGY L.EVELS AND MUL TIPOLE MIXING RATIO OF ELECTROMAGNETIC TRANSITIONSIN THE EVEN-EVEN ISOTOPES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. KARAKAYA

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work some of the electromagnetic interactions of even-even Haf nium isotopes in the 150lt;k:;l90 defoıınation region were studied in a detailed manner. l n this region� us ing the experimental 8(E2/lv11 ınultipole ınixing ratios the deformation parameters �o and the quadrupole moments q0 and q'2 were calculated. The obtained results are in a good agreement ·with the ge neral systematic of the defoıınation region under consideration.

  18. A Comparative Analysis of Two Software Development Methodologies: Rational Unified Process and Extreme Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Rafael Borth

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Software development methodologies were created to meet the great market demand for innovation, productivity, quality and performance. With the use of a methodology, it is possible to reduce the cost, the risk, the development time, and even increase the quality of the final product. This article compares two of these development methodologies: the Rational Unified Process and the Extreme Programming. The comparison shows the main differences and similarities between the two approaches, and highlights and comments some of their predominant features.

  19. Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Auchmann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

  20. A systematic study of even-even nuclei up to the drip lines within the relativistic mean field framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirata, D.; Sumiyoshi, K.; Tanihata, I.; Sugahara, Y.; Tachibana, T.; Toki, H.

    1997-01-01

    We apply the relativistic mean field theory to study the ground state properties of about 2000 even-even nuclei from Z=8 to Z=120 up to the proton and neutron drip lines. The calculations have been done under the axial symmetry assumption and a quadratic constraint method in order to obtain all possible ground state configurations. We do not take into account the pairing correlation in the present study. The calculations are performed with the TMA parameter set. We explore the generaI trend of masses, radii and deformations in the whole region of the nuclear chart. Using the masses obtained from RMF theory, we calculate the r-process abundances and the r-process path. (orig.)

  1. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  2. Defining Extreme Events: A Cross-Disciplinary Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhillips, Lauren E.; Chang, Heejun; Chester, Mikhail V.; Depietri, Yaella; Friedman, Erin; Grimm, Nancy B.; Kominoski, John S.; McPhearson, Timon; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Rosi, Emma J.; Shafiei Shiva, Javad

    2018-03-01

    Extreme events are of interest worldwide given their potential for substantial impacts on social, ecological, and technical systems. Many climate-related extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or magnitude due to anthropogenic climate change, and there is increased potential for impacts due to the location of urbanization and the expansion of urban centers and infrastructures. Many disciplines are engaged in research and management of these events. However, a lack of coherence exists in what constitutes and defines an extreme event across these fields, which impedes our ability to holistically understand and manage these events. Here, we review 10 years of academic literature and use text analysis to elucidate how six major disciplines—climatology, earth sciences, ecology, engineering, hydrology, and social sciences—define and communicate extreme events. Our results highlight critical disciplinary differences in the language used to communicate extreme events. Additionally, we found a wide range in definitions and thresholds, with more than half of examined papers not providing an explicit definition, and disagreement over whether impacts are included in the definition. We urge distinction between extreme events and their impacts, so that we can better assess when responses to extreme events have actually enhanced resilience. Additionally, we suggest that all researchers and managers of extreme events be more explicit in their definition of such events as well as be more cognizant of how they are communicating extreme events. We believe clearer and more consistent definitions and communication can support transdisciplinary understanding and management of extreme events.

  3. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We...... investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men...

  4. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  5. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  6. Attitude extremity, consensus and diagnosticity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Pligt, J.; Ester, P.; van der Linden, J.

    1983-01-01

    Studied the effects of attitude extremity on perceived consensus and willingness to ascribe trait terms to others with either pro- or antinuclear attitudes. 611 Ss rated their attitudes toward nuclear energy on a 5-point scale. Results show that attitude extremity affected consensus estimates. Trait

  7. Extreme Events in Nature and Society

    CERN Document Server

    Albeverio, Sergio; Kantz, Holger

    2006-01-01

    Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

  8. Controlling extreme events on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2014-08-01

    Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

  9. Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

    2017-12-01

    The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

  10. Neurodevelopmental outcomes of triplets or higher-order extremely low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadhawan, Rajan; Oh, William; Vohr, Betty R; Wrage, Lisa; Das, Abhik; Bell, Edward F; Laptook, Abbot R; Shankaran, Seetha; Stoll, Barbara J; Walsh, Michele C; Higgins, Rosemary D

    2011-03-01

    Extremely low birth weight twins have a higher rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment than singletons. Higher-order extremely low birth weight multiple births may have an even higher rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment. Extremely low birth weight (birth weight 401-1000 g) multiple births born in participating centers of the Neonatal Research Network between 1996 and 2005 were assessed for death or neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months' corrected age. Neurodevelopmental impairment was defined by the presence of 1 or more of the following: moderate to severe cerebral palsy; mental developmental index score or psychomotor developmental index score less than 70; severe bilateral deafness; or blindness. Infants who died within 12 hours of birth were excluded. Maternal and infant demographic and clinical variables were compared among singleton, twin, and triplet or higher-order infants. Logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the association between singletons, twins, and triplet or higher-order multiples and death or neurodevelopmental impairment, controlling for confounding variables that may affect death or neurodevelopmental impairment. Our cohort consisted of 8296 singleton, 2164 twin, and 521 triplet or higher-order infants. The risk of death or neurodevelopmental impairment was increased in triplets or higher-order multiples when compared with singletons (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.29-2.24]), and there was a trend toward an increased risk when compared with twins (adjusted odds ratio: 1.27 [95% confidence: 0.95-1.71]). Triplet or higher-order births are associated with an increased risk of death or neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months' corrected age when compared with extremely low birth weight singleton infants, and there was a trend toward an increased risk when compared with twins.

  11. Adaptive learning by extremal dynamics and negative feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bak, Per; Chialvo, Dante R.

    2001-01-01

    We describe a mechanism for biological learning and adaptation based on two simple principles: (i) Neuronal activity propagates only through the network's strongest synaptic connections (extremal dynamics), and (ii) the strengths of active synapses are reduced if mistakes are made, otherwise no changes occur (negative feedback). The balancing of those two tendencies typically shapes a synaptic landscape with configurations which are barely stable, and therefore highly flexible. This allows for swift adaptation to new situations. Recollection of past successes is achieved by punishing synapses which have once participated in activity associated with successful outputs much less than neurons that have never been successful. Despite its simplicity, the model can readily learn to solve complicated nonlinear tasks, even in the presence of noise. In particular, the learning time for the benchmark parity problem scales algebraically with the problem size N, with an exponent k∼1.4

  12. STARE velocities: 2. Evening westward electron flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Uspensky

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Four evening events and one morning event of joint EISCAT/STARE observations during ~22h are considered and the differences between observed STARE line-of-sight (l-o-s velocities and EISCAT electron drift velocities projected onto the STARE beams are studied. We demonstrate that the double-pulse technique, which is currently in use in the STARE routine data handling, typically underestimates the true phase velocity as inferred from the multi-pulse STARE data. We show that the STARE velocities are persistently smaller (1.5–2 times than the EISCAT velocities, even for the multi-pulse data. The effect seems to be more pronounced in the evening sector when the Finland radar observes at large flow angles. We evaluate the performance of the ion-acoustic approach (IAA, Nielsen and Schlegel, 1985 and the off-orthogonal fluid approach (OOFA, Uspensky et al., 2003 techniques to predict the true electron drift velocity for the base event of 12 February 1999. The IAA technique predicts the convection reasonably well for enhanced flows of >~1000m/s, but not so well for slower ones. By considering the EISCAT N(h profiles, we derive the effective aspect angle and effective altitude of backscatter, and use this information for application of the OOFA technique. We demonstrate that the OOFA predictions for the base event are superior over the IAA predictions and thus, we confirm that OOFA predicts the electron velocities reasonably well in the evening sector, in addition to the morning sector, as concluded by Uspensky et al. (2003. To check how "robust" the OOFA model is and how successful it is for convection estimates without the EISCAT support, we analysed three additional evening events and one additional morning event for which information on N(h profiles was intentionally ignored. By accepting the mean STARE/EISCAT velocity ratio of 0.55 and the mean azimuth rotation of 9° (derived for the basic event, we show that the OOFA performs

  13. A single pH fluorescent probe for biosensing and imaging of extreme acidity and extreme alkalinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Jian-Bin; Wang, Hui-Juan; Zhang, Yong-Bin; Li, Zhi-Qing; Liu, Yu-Hong; Huo, Fang-Jun; Yin, Cai-Xia; Shi, Ya-Wei; Wang, Juan-Juan

    2017-07-04

    A simple tailor-made pH fluorescent probe 2-benzothiazole (N-ethylcarbazole-3-yl) hydrazone (Probe) is facilely synthesized by the condensation reaction of 2-hydrazinobenzothiazole with N-ethylcarbazole-3-formaldehyde, which is a useful fluorescent probe for monitoring extremely acidic and alkaline pH, quantitatively. The pH titrations indicate that Probe displays a remarkable emission enhancement with a pK a of 2.73 and responds linearly to minor pH fluctuations within the extremely acidic range of 2.21-3.30. Interestingly, Probe also exhibits strong pH-dependent characteristics with pK a 11.28 and linear response to extreme-alkalinity range of 10.41-12.43. In addition, Probe shows a large Stokes shift of 84 nm under extremely acidic and alkaline conditions, high selectivity, excellent sensitivity, good water-solubility and fine stability, all of which are favorable for intracellular pH imaging. The probe is further successfully applied to image extremely acidic and alkaline pH values fluctuations in E. coli cells. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Particle-number fluctuations and neutron-proton pairing effects on proton and neutron radii of even-even N Almost-Equal-To Z nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douici, M.; Allal, N. H.; Fellah, M.; Benhamouda, N.; Oudih, M. R. [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique, Faculte de Physique, USTHB BP 32 El-Alia, 16111 Bab-Ezzouar, Alger (Algeria) and Institut des Sciences et Technologie, Centre Universitaire de Khemis Miliana, Route de Theniet-El-Had, 44225 Khemis-Milia (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique Theorique, Faculte de Physique, USTHB BP 32 El-Alia, 16111 Bab-Ezzouar, Alger (Algeria) and Centre de Recherche Nucleaire d' Alger, COMENA, BP399 Alger-Gare, Alger (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique Theorique, Faculte de Physique, USTHB BP 32 El-Alia, 16111 Bab-Ezzouar, Alger (Algeria)

    2012-10-20

    The particle-number fluctuation effect on the root-mean-square (rms) proton and neutron radii of even-even N Almost-Equal-To Z nuclei is studied in the isovector neutron-proton (np) pairing case using an exact particle-number projection method and the Woods-Saxon model.

  15. Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Hai-Kun; Li, Yan-Feng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Jin, Tongdan

    2017-01-01

    When a group of identical products is operating in field, the aggregation of failures is a catastrophe to engineers and customers who strive to develop reliable and safe products. In order to avoid a swarm of failures in a short time, it is essential to measure the degree of dispersion from different failure times in a group of products to the first failure time. This phenomenon is relevant to the crowding of system conditions near the worst one among a group of products. The group size in this paper represents a finite number of products, instead of infinite number or a single product. We evaluate the reliability of the product fleet from two aspects. First, we define near-extreme system condition and near-extreme failure time for offline solutions, which means no online observations. Second, we apply them to a continuous degradation system that breaks down when it reaches a soft failure threshold. By using particle filtering in the framework of prognostics and health management for a group of products, we aim to estimate near-extreme system condition and further predict the remaining useful life (RUL) using online solutions. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Highlights: • The aggregation of failures is measured for a group of identical products. • The crowding of failures is quantitated by the near-extreme evaluations. • Near-extreme system condition are given for offline solutions. • Near-extreme remaining useful time are provided for online solutions.

  16. Book review: Extreme ocean waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2011-01-01

    ‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. 

  17. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  18. The personal dispositions of violent extremism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davydov D.G.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the differences in the nature of extremism and radicalism, and the necessity of introducing the concept of "violent extremism." It is shown that the ideology is the explanation of extremist behavior, rather than its cause. The ideology of extremism often eclectic, contradictory and can easily be transformed by changing the object of hostility, depending on the situation. For the description of the psychological causes of extremism it is proposed to use the concept of personal disposition. Disposition is the preferred way to subjective interpretation of reality and reflects both the specific needs of a person as well the typical social situations where it realized and personal experience. Considered the following dispositions of violent extremism: the Cult of force and aggression, Intolerance, Out-group hostility Conventional coercion, Social pessimism and destructiveness, Mystical, Fighting and overcoming, Nihilism to law, Anti-subjectivism. It is proposed to use these dispositions as diagnostic criteria and for preventing and correcting.

  19. ELROI Extremely Low Resource Optical Identifier. A license plate for your satellite, and more.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmer, David [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-18

    ELROI (Extremely Low Resource Optical Identifier) is a license plate for your satellite; a small tag that flashes an optical identification code that can be read by a small telescope on the ground. The final version of the tag will be the size of a thick postage stamp and fully autonomous: you can attach it to everything that goes into space, including small cubesats and inert debris like rocket stages, and it will keep blinking even after the satellite is shut down, reliably identifying the object from launch until re-entry.

  20. Nonlinear self-duality in even dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aschieri, Paolo; Brace, Daniel; Morariu, Bogdan; Zumino, Bruno

    2000-01-01

    We show that the Born-Infeld theory with n complex abelian gauge fields written in an auxiliary field formulation has a U(n, n) duality group. We conjecture the form of the Lagrangian obtained by eliminating the auxiliary fields and then introduce a new reality structure leading to a Born-Infeld theory with n real gauge fields and an Sp(2n, IR) duality symmetry. The real and complex constructions are extended to arbitrary even dimensions. The maximal noncompact duality group is U(n, n) for complex fields. For real fields the duality group is Sp(2n, IR) if half of the dimension of space-time is even and O(n, n) if it is odd. We also discuss duality under the maximal compact subgroup, which is the self-duality group of the theory obtained by fixing the expectation value of a scalar field. Supersymmetric versions of self-dual theories in four dimensions are also discussed

  1. Asymmetrically extremely dilute neural networks with Langevin dynamics and unconventional results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatchett, J P L; Coolen, A C C

    2004-01-01

    We study graded response attractor neural networks with asymmetrically extremely dilute interactions and Langevin dynamics. We solve our model in the thermodynamic limit using generating functional analysis, and find (in contrast to the binary neurons case) that even in statics, for T > 0 or large α, one cannot eliminate the non-persistent order parameters, atypically for recurrent neural network models. The macroscopic dynamics is driven by the (non-trivial) joint distribution of neurons and fields, rather than just the (Gaussian) field distribution. We calculate phase transition lines and find, as may be expected for this asymmetric model, that there is no spin-glass phase, only recall and paramagnetic phases. We present simulation results in support of our theory

  2. Revisiting the even-odd staggering in fission-fragment yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caamano, M.; Rejmund, F.; Schmidt, K. H.

    2010-01-01

    The even-odd staggering observed in the experimental fission-fragment nuclear-charge yields is investigated over a wide systematics of fission fragments measured at Lohengrin in direct kinematics and at GSI in inverse kinematics. The general increase of the even-odd staggering in the fission-fragment charge yields towards asymmetric charge splits is explained by the absorption of the unpaired nucleons by the heavy fragment. As a consequence, the well established trend of even-odd staggering in the fission fragment charge yields to decrease with the fissility is attributed in part to the asymmetry evolution of the charge distribution. This interpretation is strongly supported by the data measured at GSI, which cover the complete charge distribution and include precise yields at symmetry. They reveal that the even-odd effect around symmetry remains constant over a large range of fissility. (authors)

  3. Statistics of extremes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Beirlant, Jan; Segers, Johan; Teugels, Jozef; De Waal, Daniel; Ferro, Chris

    2006-01-01

    Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including  time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.  

  4. Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin

    2018-03-10

    This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

  5. Use break-even analysis to optimize bit runs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, J. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Applying a technique known as break-even analysis during the bit selection process enables the operator to more definitively estimate drilling costs. The break-even chart can be used in a variety of ways to evaluate bit and operating parameter alternatives. Frequent application of this technique significantly improves the user's understanding of drilling economics and their ability to plan more effective drilling programs. This paper reports on several examples of drilling cost estimates obtained through application of the break-even analysis, which determines the bit performance required to match established drilling cost records in similar applications. It is especially helpful when new bit features are being considered for the first time. Two common examples with today's rolling cutter bits are changes from steel teeth to tungsten carbide inserts (TCI) and O-ring to metal bearing seals

  6. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  7. On the Extreme Wave Height Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Liu, Zhou

    1994-01-01

    The determination of the design wave height is usually based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurements. After an introduction to the procedure of the extreme wave height analysis, the paper presents new development concerning various aspects of the extreme wave...... height analysis. Finally, the paper gives a practical example based on a data set of the hindcasted wave heights for a deep water location in the Mediterranean Sea....

  8. Analysis of extreme wind events at Høvsøre and the effect on wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hannesdóttir, Ásta; Kelly, Mark C.; Mann, Jakob

    used to simulate wind turbine response in time domain. The simulations are made for the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine. Load analysis shows that the maximum tilt moment on the tower yaw bearing correlates well with the wind shear of the measurements. When these loads are compared with the extreme...... wind shear load case of the IEC standards, it is seen that they are of similar magnitude and in one case even higher....

  9. Identifying Neutrino Mass Hierarchy at Extremely Small θ13 through Earth Matter Effects in a Supernova Signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasgupta, Basudeb; Dighe, Amol; Mirizzi, Alessandro

    2008-01-01

    Collective neutrino flavor transformations deep inside a supernova are sensitive to the neutrino mass hierarchy even at extremely small values of θ 13 . Exploiting this effect, we show that comparison of the antineutrino signals from a galactic supernova in two megaton class water Cherenkov detectors, one of which is shadowed by Earth, will enable us to distinguish between the hierarchies if sin 2 θ 13 -5 , where long baseline neutrino experiments would be ineffectual

  10. Feeding styles and evening family meals among recent immigrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    The protective effect of family meals on unhealthy weight gain and diet has been shown across multiple age groups; however, it is unknown whether a similar effect is present among diverse immigrant populations. In addition, little research has focused on factors associated with the frequency of evening family meals, such as feeding styles (how parents interact with their child around feeding). Therefore the goals of this paper are to explore the 1) association between the frequency of evening family meals and child weight status among new immigrant families, and 2) influence of immigrant mothers’ feeding styles on the frequency of evening family meals. Baseline self-reported socio-demographic information and measured heights and weights were collected for both mother and child (age range: 3–12 years) among 387 mother-child dyads enrolled in Live Well, a community-based, participatory-research, randomized controlled lifestyle intervention to prevent excessive weight gain in recent (eating dinner in front of the TV, acculturation and responses to the Caregiver’s Feeding Styles Questionnaire (CFSQ) were also obtained from the mother. Children were categorized as “eating evening family meals regularly” if they had an evening family meal ≥5 times per week. Overall, 20% of children were overweight and 25% were obese. Less than half (40.9%) of families had regular evening family meals. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for covariates, children who were overweight/obese were significantly less likely to have ≥5 evening family meals/week compared with normal weight children (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.82) . Mothers who had a low demanding/high responsive or a low demanding/low responsive feeding style, were less likely to have ≥5 evening family meals/week compared to mothers with a high demanding/high responsive feeding style (OR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.18-0.0.96, OR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.13-0.87, respectively). Future interventions and programs that seek

  11. Significant mean and extreme climate sensitivity of Norway spruce and silver fir at mid-elevation mesic sites in the Alps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carrer

    Full Text Available Climate forcing is the major abiotic driver for forest ecosystem functioning and thus significantly affects the role of forests within the global carbon cycle and related ecosystem services. Annual radial increments of trees are probably the most valuable source of information to link tree growth and climate at long-term time scales, and have been used in a wide variety of investigations worldwide. However, especially in mountainous areas, tree-ring studies have focused on extreme environments where the climate sensitivity is perhaps greatest but are necessarily a biased representation of the forests within a region. We used tree-ring analyses to study two of the most important tree species growing in the Alps: Norway spruce (Picea abies and silver fir (Abies alba. We developed tree-ring chronologies from 13 mesic mid-elevation sites (203 trees and then compared them to monthly temperature and precipitation data for the period 1846-1995. Correlation functions, principal component analysis and fuzzy C-means clustering were applied to 1 assess the climate/growth relationships and their stationarity and consistency over time, and 2 extract common modes of variability in the species responses to mean and extreme climate variability. Our results highlight a clear, time-stable, and species-specific response to mean climate conditions. However, during the previous-year's growing season, which shows the strongest correlations, the primary difference between species is in their response to extreme events, not mean conditions. Mesic sites at mid-altitude are commonly underrepresented in tree-ring research; we showed that strong climatic controls of growth may exist even in those areas. Extreme climatic events may play a key role in defining the species-specific responses on climatic sensitivity and, with a global change perspective, specific divergent responses are likely to occur even where current conditions are less limited.

  12. Performance testing of extremity dosimeters, Study 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harty, R.; Reece, W.D.; Hooker, C.D.

    1990-04-01

    The Health Physics Society Standards Committee (HPSSC) Working Group on Performance Testing of Extremity Dosimeters has issued a draft of a proposed standard for extremity dosimeters. The draft standard proposes methods to be used for testing dosimetry systems that determine occupational radiation dose to the extremities and the performance criterion used to determine compliance with the standard. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted two separate evaluations of the performance of extremity dosimeter processors to determine the appropriateness of the draft standard, as well as to obtain information regarding the performance of extremity dosimeters. Based on the information obtained during the facility visits and the results obtained from the performance testing, it was recommended that changes be made to ensure that the draft standard is appropriate for extremity dosimeters. The changes include: subdividing the mixture category and the beta particle category; eliminating the neutron category until appropriate flux-to-dose equivalent conversion factors are derived; and changing the tolerance level for the performance criterion to provide consistency with the performance criterion for whole body dosimeters, and to avoid making the draft standard overly difficult for processors of extremity dosimeters to pass. 20 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

  13. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  14. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  15. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air

  16. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value.

    The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly

  17. DIRECTIONS OF EXTREME TOURISM IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Martseniuk

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. In the world market of tourist services the extreme tourism is very popular, as it does not require the significant financial costs and enables year on year to increase the offers of holiday packages, associated with active travel. Ukraine has significant potential for the development of extreme kinds of rest, but it is not developed enough. Forms of extreme tourism are unknown for domestic tourists, and therefore, they formed a negative attitude. The aim of the article is the analysis of extreme resort potential of Ukraine and promotion of the development of extreme tourism destinations in the travel market. Theoretical and methodological basis of research is the system analysis of the problems of ensuring the competitiveness of the tourism industry, theoretical principles of economic science in the field of the effectiveness of extreme tourism and management of tourist flows. Methodology. The author offers the directions of tourist flows control, which differ from the current expansion of services to tourists in Ukraine. The development of extreme tourism with the help of co-operation of railways and sport federations was proposed. Findings. During the research the author proved that the implementation of the tasks will be promote: 1 increase in budget revenues at all levels of the inner extreme tourism; 2 raise the image of Ukraine and Ukrainian Railways; 3 increase the share of tourism and resorts in the gross domestic product to the level of developed countries; 4 bringing the number of employees in tourism and resorts to the level of developed countries; 5 the creation of an effective system of monitoring the quality of tourist services; 6 the creation of an attractive investment climate for attracting the investment in the broad development of tourism, engineering and transport and municipal infrastructure; 7 improvement the safety of tourists, ensure the effective protection of their rights and legitimate interests and

  18. Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa: Application of extreme value theory and fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and their effects on mean values and long-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; Stübi, Rene; Weihs, Philipp; Holawe, Franz

    2010-05-01

    ón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances lead to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the presented new extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder ,H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of

  19. Angiography of the upper extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janevski, B.K.

    1982-01-01

    This thesis provides a description of the technical and medical aspects of arteriography of the upper extremity and an extensive analysis of the angiographic anatomy and pathology of 750 selective studies performed in more than 500 patients. A short historical review is provided of angiography as a whole and of arteriography of the hand in particular. The method of percutaneous transfemoral catheterization of the arteries of the upper extremity and particularly the arteries of the hand is considered, discussing the problems the angiographer encounters frequently, describing the angiographic complications which may occur and emphasizing the measures to keep them to a minimum. The use of vasodilators in hand angiography is discussed. A short description of the embryological patterns persisting in the arteries of the arm is included in order to understand the congenital variations of the arteries of the upper extremity. The angiographic patterns and clinical aspects of the most common pathological processes involving the arteries of the upper extremities are presented. Special attention is paid to the correlation between angiography and pathology. (Auth.)

  20. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events; Interactions d'echelles en economie: application a l'evaluation des dommages economiques du changement climatique et des evenements extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, S

    2005-06-15

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  1. Acclimatization to extreme heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

    2017-12-01

    Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

  2. Developing a Framework for Seamless Prediction of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosendahl, D. H.; Ćwik, P.; Martin, E. R.; Basara, J. B.; Brooks, H. E.; Furtado, J. C.; Homeyer, C. R.; Lazrus, H.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Mullens, E.; Richman, M. B.; Robinson-Cook, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events cause significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture, as well as many injures and fatalities as a result of fast-moving water or waterborne diseases. In the USA, these natural hazard events claimed the lives of more than 300 people during 2015 - 2016 alone, with total damage reaching $24.4 billion. Prior studies of extreme precipitation events have focused on the sub-daily to sub-weekly timeframes. However, many decisions for planning, preparing and resilience-building require sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframes (S2S; 14 to 90 days), but adequate forecasting tools for prediction do not exist. Therefore, the goal of this newly funded project is an enhancement in understanding of the large-scale forcing and dynamics of S2S extreme precipitation events in the United States, and improved capability for modeling and predicting such events. Here, we describe the project goals, objectives, and research activities that will take place over the next 5 years. In this project, a unique team of scientists and stakeholders will identify and understand weather and climate processes connected with the prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events by answering these research questions: 1) What are the synoptic patterns associated with, and characteristic of, S2S extreme precipitation evens in the contiguous U.S.? 2) What role, if any, do large-scale modes of climate variability play in modulating these events? 3) How predictable are S2S extreme precipitation events across temporal scales? 4) How do we create an informative prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events for policymaking and planing? This project will use observational data, high-resolution radar composites, dynamical climate models and workshops that engage stakeholders (water resource managers, emergency managers and tribal environmental professionals) in co-production of knowledge. The overarching result of this project will be predictive models to reduce of

  3. Systematics of even-a polonium isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younes, W.; Cizewski, J.A.; Bernstein, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    Polonium nuclei, with two valence protons, provide fertile ground for the study of the onset of collectivity: from the textbook two-particle levels of 210 Po to the phonon-like multiplets of 196 Po. In their earlier work the authors described the low-lying structure of even-A Po nuclei down to 196 Po as two protons interacting via a surface-δ interaction and adiabatically coupled to a vibrating core. However, this particle-core model (PCM) fails to adequately describe the recently measured level scheme of 194 Po. Also because it assumes a pre-existing vibrational core, this model does not help to understand the single particle contributions to the collective motion. Therefore, the authors have also studied the Po systematics using a more microscopic model: the quasi-particle random phase approximation (QRPA). They will present a phenomenological analysis of the rapidity of the onset of collectivity for the Po isotopes as well as results of both PCM and QRPA calculations. The microscopic nature of the collectivity for the even-A Po isotopes will be discussed

  4. Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

  5. The extreme vulnerability of interdependent spatially embedded networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashan, Amir; Berezin, Yehiel; Buldyrev, Sergey V.; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-10-01

    Recent studies show that in interdependent networks a very small failure in one network may lead to catastrophic consequences. Above a critical fraction of interdependent nodes, even a single node failure can invoke cascading failures that may abruptly fragment the system, whereas below this critical dependency a failure of a few nodes leads only to a small amount of damage to the system. So far, research has focused on interdependent random networks without space limitations. However, many real systems, such as power grids and the Internet, are not random but are spatially embedded. Here we analytically and numerically study the stability of interdependent spatially embedded networks modelled as lattice networks. Surprisingly, we find that in lattice systems, in contrast to non-embedded systems, there is no critical dependency and any small fraction of interdependent nodes leads to an abrupt collapse. We show that this extreme vulnerability of very weakly coupled lattices is a consequence of the critical exponent describing the percolation transition of a single lattice.

  6. [Injury mechanisms in extreme violence settings].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcaute-Velazquez, Fernando Federico; García-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Noyola-Vilallobos, Héctor Faustino; Espinoza-Mercado, Fernando; Rodríguez-Vega, Carlos Eynar

    2016-01-01

    Extreme violence events are consequence of current world-wide economic, political and social conditions. Injury patterns found among victims of extreme violence events are very complex, obeying several high-energy injury mechanisms. In this article, we present the basic concepts of trauma kinematics that regulate the clinical approach to victims of extreme violence events, in the hope that clinicians increase their theoretical armamentarium, and reflecting on obtaining better outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.

  7. How applicable is even-aged silviculture in the northeast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph H. Griffin

    1977-01-01

    The applicability of even-aged silviculture in the management of forest stands in the Northeast is examined through consideration of the forest stand, stand development, intermediate cuttings, and regeneration methods. It is concluded that even-aged silviculture is quite applicable in the management of forest stands in the Northeast.

  8. Extremely low temperature properties of epoxy GFRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadotani, Kenzo; Nagai, Matao; Aki, Fumitake.

    1983-01-01

    The examination of fiber-reinforced plastics, that is, plastics such as epoxy, polyester and polyimide reinforced with high strength fibers such as glass, carbon, boron and steel, for extremely low temperature use began from the fuel tanks of rockets. Therafter, the trial manufacture of superconducting generators and extremely low temperature transformers and the manufacture of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion experimental setups became active, and high performance FRPs have been adopted, of which the extremely low temperature properties have been sufficiently grasped. Recently, the cryostats made of FRPs have been developed, fully utilizing such features of FRPs as high strength, high rigidity, non-magnetic material, insulation, low heat conductivity, light weight and the freedom of molding. In this paper, the mechanical properties at extremely low temperature of the plastic composite materials used as insulators and structural materials for extremely low temperature superconducting equipment is outlined, and in particular, glass fiber-reinforced epoxy laminates are described somewhat in detail. The fracture strain of GFRP at extremely low temperature is about 1.3 times as large as that at room temperature, but at extremely low temperature, clear cracking occurred at 40% of the fracture strain. The linear thermal contraction of GFRP showed remarkable anisotropy. (Kako, I.)

  9. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  10. Lower-Extremity Weakness in a Teenager Due to Thyrotoxic Periodic Paralysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Matthew D

    2017-04-01

    Thyrotoxic hypokalemic paralysis is the hallmark of thyrotoxic periodic paralysis (TPP). TPP is a potentially deadly complication of hyperthyroidism that occurs because of rapid and dramatic intracellular shift of potassium. This transference results in severe hypokalemia and clinically manifests itself as muscle weakness or paralysis. This condition predominantly affects males of Asian descent, and its presentation can range from mild to severe, as seen in our case. We present the case of a 15-year-old Asian-American male who presented to a tertiary-care pediatric emergency department complaining of generalized weakness and flaccid paralysis of his lower extremities. The differential for such a complaint is extremely broad, and the symptoms can result from etiologies arising from the cerebral cortex, the spinal cord, peripheral nerves, the neuromuscular junction, or even the muscles themselves. Our patient was found to have an extremely low serum potassium concentration, as well as an electrocardiogram that revealed a prolonged QT interval and right bundle branch block. The etiology of these abnormalities and the patient's symptoms was found to be undiagnosed and uncontrolled hyperthyroidism from Grave's disease, which resulted in this dramatic presentation of thyrotoxic hypokalemic paralysis. WHY SHOULD AN EMERGENCY PHYSICIAN BE AWARE OF THIS?: This entity is common in Asia but still somewhat rare in the United States and other Western countries. Our case illustrates that careful history taking and a focused diagnostic evaluation, in conjunction with having an awareness of this disease, can help expedite diagnosis and management, as well as avoid unnecessary and potential harmful testing in the emergency department setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Non-Gaussian statistics of extreme events in stimulated Raman scattering: The role of coherent memory and source noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monfared, Yashar E.; Ponomarenko, Sergey A.

    2017-10-01

    We explore theoretically and numerically extreme event excitation in stimulated Raman scattering in gases. We consider gas-filled hollow-core photonic crystal fibers as a particular system realization. We show that moderate amplitude pump fluctuations obeying Gaussian statistics lead to the emergence of heavy-tailed non-Gaussian statistics as coherent seed Stokes pulses are amplified on propagation along the fiber. We reveal the crucial role that coherent memory effects play in causing non-Gaussian statistics of the system. We discover that extreme events can occur even at the initial stage of stimulated Raman scattering when one can neglect energy depletion of an intense, strongly fluctuating Gaussian pump source. Our analytical results in the undepleted pump approximation explicitly illustrate power-law probability density generation as the input pump noise is transferred to the output Stokes pulses.

  12. Faith Development of the Teenager during the Sunday Evening ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From church conversations with teenagers (born between 1974 and 1994), publications in recent times appeared worldwide and the qualitative investigation in the article is utilized. It seems there are problems in the practice of the faith formation of teenagers in the evening service. The aim of an evening service must ...

  13. Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerenson, Travis; Tebaldi, Claudia; Sanderson, Ben; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2018-03-01

    Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °C in a special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from definitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.

  14. The need of the change of the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes under extreme conditions – taking reference evapotranspiration as an example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available What a hydrological model displays is the relationships between the output and input in daily, monthly, yearly and other temporal scales. In the case of climate change or other environment changes, the input of the hydrological model may show a gradual or abrupt change. There have been numerous documented studies to explore the response of output of the hydrological models to the change of the input with scenario simulation. Most of the studies assumed that the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes will remain, which may be true for the gradual change of the input. However, under extreme conditions the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes may be completely changed. Taking an example of the Allen's formula to calculate crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0 as a simple hydrological model, we analyze the alternation of the extreme in ET0 from 1955 to 2012 at the Chongling Experimental Station located in Hebei Province, China. The relationships between ET0 and the meteorological factors for the average values, minimum (maximum values at daily, monthly and annual scales are revealed. It is found the extreme of the output can follow the extreme of the input better when their relationship is more linear. For non-liner relationship, the extreme of the input cannot at all be reflected from the extreme of the output. Relatively, extreme event at daily scale is harder to be shown than that at monthly scale. The result implicates that a routine model may not be able to catch the response to extreme events and it is even more so as we extrapolate models to higher temperature/CO2 conditions in the future. Some possible choices for the improvements are suggested for predicting hydrological extremes.

  15. Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

    2017-06-01

    The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

  16. Stellar extreme ultraviolet astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cash, W.C. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The design, calibration, and launch of a rocket-borne imaging telescope for extreme ultraviolet astronomy are described. The telescope, which employed diamond-turned grazing incidence optics and a ranicon detector, was launched November 19, 1976, from the White Sands Missile Range. The telescope performed well and returned data on several potential stellar sources of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Upper limits ten to twenty times more sensitive than previously available were obtained for the extreme ultraviolet flux from the white dwarf Sirius B. These limits fall a factor of seven below the flux predicted for the star and demonstrate that the temperature of Sirius B is not 32,000 K as previously measured, but is below 30,000 K. The new upper limits also rule out the photosphere of the white dwarf as the source of the recently reported soft x-rays from Sirius. Two other white dwarf stars, Feige 24 and G191-B2B, were observed. Upper limits on the flux at 300 A were interpreted as lower limits on the interstellar hydrogen column densities to these stars. The lower limits indicate interstellar hydrogen densitites of greater than .02 cm -3 . Four nearby stars (Sirius, Procyon, Capella, and Mirzam) were observed in a search for intense low temperature coronae or extended chromospheres. No extreme ultraviolet radiation from these stars was detected, and upper limits to their coronal emisson measures are derived

  17. Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

    2013-09-01

    We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

  18. Fragmentation of two-quasiparticle states in 92Zr and even-even Sn isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solov'ev, V.G.; Stoyanova, O.; Voronov, V.V.

    1981-01-01

    The fragmentation of two-quasiparticle states in doubly even spherical nuclei is calculated within the quasiparticle-phonon nuclear model. The fragmentation is due to the interactions leading to the formation of phonons and to the quasiparticle-phonon interaction. The spectroscopic factors for the ''particle-valence particle'' states in 92 Zr are calculated. The agreement with the experimental data of the reaction 91 Zr(d, p) 92 Zr is obtained. The centroid energy Esub(jjsub(0)) and width GITAsub(jjsub(0)) are calculated for the configurations excited in the (p, d) reactions on odd-A isotopes of Cd, Sn and Te. It is shown that the valence particle-hole lgsub(9/2) configuration is localized at the excitation energies of 7-9 MeV. The corresponding experimental data are well described

  19. How does public opinion become extreme?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Marlon; Shao, Jia; Reis, Saulo D S; Anteneodo, Celia; Andrade, José S; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A

    2015-05-19

    We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are "very conservative" versus "moderate to very conservative" ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual "stubbornness" that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate to extreme views. Moreover, by means of a phase diagram we can classify societies according to the percolative regime they belong to, in terms of critical fractions of extremists and people's ties.

  20. How does public opinion become extreme?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Marlon; Shao, Jia; Reis, Saulo D. S.; Anteneodo, Celia; Andrade, José S.; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are “very conservative” versus “moderate to very conservative” ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual “stubbornness” that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate to extreme views. Moreover, by means of a phase diagram we can classify societies according to the percolative regime they belong to, in terms of critical fractions of extremists and people’s ties.

  1. The reduced transition probabilities for excited states of rare-earths and actinide even-even nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghumman, S. S. [Department of Physics, Sant Longowal Institute of Engineering and Technology (Deemed University), Longowal, Sangrur-148106, Punjab, India s-ghumman@yahoo.com (India)

    2015-08-28

    The theoretical B(E2) ratios have been calculated on DF, DR and Krutov models. A simple method based on the work of Arima and Iachello is used to calculate the reduced transition probabilities within SU(3) limit of IBA-I framework. The reduced E2 transition probabilities from second excited states of rare-earths and actinide even–even nuclei calculated from experimental energies and intensities from recent data, have been found to compare better with those calculated on the Krutov model and the SU(3) limit of IBA than the DR and DF models.

  2. Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Alex

    2017-04-01

    Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a

  3. Sequences of extremal radially excited rotating black holes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blázquez-Salcedo, Jose Luis; Kunz, Jutta; Navarro-Lérida, Francisco; Radu, Eugen

    2014-01-10

    In the Einstein-Maxwell-Chern-Simons theory the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution is no longer the single extremal solution with vanishing angular momentum, when the Chern-Simons coupling constant reaches a critical value. Instead a whole sequence of rotating extremal J=0 solutions arises, labeled by the node number of the magnetic U(1) potential. Associated with the same near horizon solution, the mass of these radially excited extremal solutions converges to the mass of the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution. On the other hand, not all near horizon solutions are also realized as global solutions.

  4. Complex Plasma Research Under Extreme Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Osamu

    2008-01-01

    Complex plasma research under extreme conditions is described. The extreme conditions include low-dimensionality for self-organized structures of dust particles, dust magnetization in high magnetic field, criticality in phase transition, and cryogenic environment for Coulomb crystals and dust dynamics.

  5. Analysis of Even Harmonics Generation in an Isolated Electric Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanao, Norikazu; Hayashi, Yasuhiro; Matsuki, Junya

    Harmonics bred from loads are mainly odd order because the current waveform has half-wave symmetry. Since the even harmonics are negligibly small, those are not generally measured in electric power systems. However, even harmonics were measured at a 500/275/154kV substation in Hokuriku Electric Power Company after removal of a transmission line fault. The even harmonics caused malfunctions of protective digital relays because the relays used 4th harmonics at the input filter as automatic supervisory signal. This paper describes the mechanism of generation of the even harmonics by comparing measured waveforms with ATP-EMTP simulation results. As a result of analysis, it is cleared that even harmonics are generated by three causes. The first cause is a magnetizing current of transformers due to flux deviation by DC component of a fault current. The second one is due to harmonic conversion of a synchronous machine which generates even harmonics when direct current component or even harmonic current flow into the machine. The third one is that increase of harmonic impedance due to an isolated power system produces harmonic voltages. The design of the input filter of protective digital relays should consider even harmonics generation in an isolated power system.

  6. Portable upper extremity robotics is as efficacious as upper extremity rehabilitative therapy: a randomized controlled pilot trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Stephen J; Hill, Valerie; White, Susan

    2013-06-01

    To compare the efficacy of a repetitive task-specific practice regimen integrating a portable, electromyography-controlled brace called the 'Myomo' versus usual care repetitive task-specific practice in subjects with chronic, moderate upper extremity impairment. Sixteen subjects (7 males; mean age 57.0 ± 11.02 years; mean time post stroke 75.0 ± 87.63 months; 5 left-sided strokes) exhibiting chronic, stable, moderate upper extremity impairment. Subjects were administered repetitive task-specific practice in which they participated in valued, functional tasks using their paretic upper extremities. Both groups were supervised by a therapist and were administered therapy targeting their paretic upper extremities that was 30 minutes in duration, occurring 3 days/week for eight weeks. One group participated in repetitive task-specific practice entirely while wearing the portable robotic, while the other performed the same activity regimen manually. The upper extremity Fugl-Meyer, Canadian Occupational Performance Measure and Stroke Impact Scale were administered on two occasions before intervention and once after intervention. After intervention, groups exhibited nearly identical Fugl-Meyer score increases of ≈2.1 points; the group using robotics exhibited larger score changes on all but one of the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure and Stroke Impact Scale subscales, including a 12.5-point increase on the Stroke Impact Scale recovery subscale. Findings suggest that therapist-supervised repetitive task-specific practice integrating robotics is as efficacious as manual practice in subjects with moderate upper extremity impairment.

  7. Extreme project. Progress report 2006; Projet EXTREME. Rapport d'avancement 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyrolle, F.; Masson, O.; Charmasson, S

    2007-07-01

    The E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project introduced in 2005 to the S.E.S.U.R.E. / L.E.R.C.M. has for objectives to acquire data on the consequences of the extreme climatic meteorological episodes on the distribution of the artificial radioisotopes within the various compartments of the geosphere. This report presents the synthesis of the actions developed in 2006 in positioning and in co financing of the project by means of regional or national research programs (C.A.R.M.A., E.X.T.R.E.M.A., E.C.C.O.R.E.V.I.), of data acquisition, valuation and scientific collaboration. (N.C.)

  8. Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

    2015-05-01

    Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

  9. Star-forming Galaxies as AGN Imposters? A Theoretical Investigation of the Mid-infrared Colors of AGNs and Extreme Starbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satyapal, Shobita; Abel, Nicholas P.; Secrest, Nathan J.

    2018-05-01

    We conduct for the first time a theoretical investigation of the mid-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) produced by dust heated by an active galactic nucleus (AGN) and an extreme starburst. These models employ an integrated modeling approach using photoionization and stellar population synthesis models in which both the line and emergent continuum is predicted from gas exposed to the ionizing radiation from a young starburst and an AGN. In this work, we focus on the infrared colors from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, predicting the dependence of the colors on the input radiation field, the interstellar medium conditions, the obscuring column, and the metallicity. We find that an extreme starburst can mimic an AGN in two band mid-infrared color cuts employed in the literature. However, the three-band color cuts employed in the literature require starbursts with extremely high ionization parameters or gas densities. We show that the extreme mid-infrared colors seen in some blue compact dwarf galaxies are not due to metallicity but rather a combination of high ionization parameters and high column densities. Based on our theoretical calculations, we present a theoretical mid-infrared color cut that will exclude even the most extreme starburst that we have modeled in this work. The theoretical AGN demarcation region presented here can be used to identify elusive AGN candidates for future follow-up studies with the James Webb Space Telescope. The full suite of simulated SEDs are available online.

  10. The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Diogo Ricardo da, E-mail: diogo_cost@hotmail.com [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Hansen, Matheus [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Instituto de Física, Univ. São Paulo, Rua do Matão, Cidade Universitária, 05314-970, São Paulo – SP (Brazil); Guarise, Gustavo [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Medrano-T, Rene O. [Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, UNIFESP – Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Rua São Nicolau, 210, Centro, 09913-030, Diadema, SP (Brazil); Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Leonel, Edson D. [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, 34151 Trieste (Italy)

    2016-04-22

    We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems. - Highlights: • Extreme orbits and the organization of periodic regions in parameter space. • One-dimensional dissipative mappings. • The circle map and also a time perturbed logistic map were studied.

  11. The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Diogo Ricardo da; Hansen, Matheus; Guarise, Gustavo; Medrano-T, Rene O.; Leonel, Edson D.

    2016-01-01

    We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems. - Highlights: • Extreme orbits and the organization of periodic regions in parameter space. • One-dimensional dissipative mappings. • The circle map and also a time perturbed logistic map were studied.

  12. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

  13. Prevention of Lower Extremity Injuries in Basketball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jeffrey B.; Ford, Kevin R.; Nguyen, Anh-Dung; Terry, Lauren N.; Hegedus, Eric J.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Lower extremity injuries are common in basketball, yet it is unclear how prophylactic interventions affect lower extremity injury incidence rates. Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of current lower extremity injury prevention programs in basketball athletes, focusing on injury rates of (1) general lower extremity injuries, (2) ankle sprains, and (3) anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears. Data Sources: PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials were searched in January 2015. Study Selection: Studies were included if they were randomized controlled or prospective cohort trials, contained a population of competitive basketball athletes, and reported lower extremity injury incidence rates specific to basketball players. In total, 426 individual studies were identified. Of these, 9 met the inclusion criteria. One other study was found during a hand search of the literature, resulting in 10 total studies included in this meta-analysis. Study Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Level of Evidence: Level 2. Data Extraction: Details of the intervention (eg, neuromuscular vs external support), size of control and intervention groups, and number of injuries in each group were extracted from each study. Injury data were classified into 3 groups based on the anatomic diagnosis reported (general lower extremity injury, ankle sprain, ACL rupture). Results: Meta-analyses were performed independently for each injury classification. Results indicate that prophylactic programs significantly reduced the incidence of general lower extremity injuries (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.85; P basketball athletes. Conclusion: In basketball players, prophylactic programs may be effective in reducing the risk of general lower extremity injuries and ankle sprains, yet not ACL injuries. PMID:26502412

  14. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  15. Morning versus evening induction of labour for improving outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Jannet J H; van der Goes, Birgit Y; Pel, Maria; Mol, Ben Willem J; van der Post, Joris A M

    2013-02-28

    Induction of labour is a common intervention in obstetric practice. Traditionally, in most hospitals induction of labour with medication starts early in the morning, with the start of the working day for the day shift. In human and animal studies spontaneous onset of labour is proven to have a circadian rhythm with a preference for start of labour in the evening. Moreover, when spontaneous labour starts in the evening, the total duration of labour and delivery shortens and fewer obstetric interventions are needed. Based on these observations one might assume that starting induction of labour in the evening, in harmony with the circadian rhythm of natural birth, is more beneficial for both mother and child. To assess whether induction of labour starting in the evening, coinciding with the endogenous circadian rhythm, improves the outcome of labour compared with induction of labour starting in the early morning, organised to coincide with office hours. We contacted the Trials Search Co-ordinator to search the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (28 February 2012). In addition, we searched MEDLINE (1966 to 16 February 2012) and EMBASE (1980 to 16 February 2012). We included all published and unpublished randomised controlled trials. We excluded trials that employed quasi-random methods of treatment allocation. Two review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion and risk of bias. Two review authors independently extracted data. Data were checked for accuracy. Where necessary, we contacted study authors for additional information. The search resulted in 2693 articles that we screened on title and abstract for eligibility.Thirteen studies were selected for full text assessment. We included three randomised trials involving 1150 women. Two trials compared the administration of prostaglandins in the morning versus the evening in women with an unfavourable cervix, and one trial compared induction of labour in the morning versus the evening

  16. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

    2018-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  17. [Crossing borders. The motivation of extreme sportsmen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opaschowski, H W

    2005-08-01

    In his article "Crossing borders -- the motivation of extreme sportsmen" the author gets systematically to the bottom of the question of why extreme sportsmen voluntarily take risks and endanger themselves. Within the scope of a representative sampling 217 extreme sportsmen -- from the fields of mountain biking, trekking and free climbing, canoyning, river rafting and deep sea diving, paragliding, parachuting, bungee jumping and survival training -- give information about their personal motives. What fascinates them? The attraction of risk? The search for sensation? Or the drop out of everyday life? And what comes afterwards? Does in the end the whole life become an extreme sport? Fact is: they live extremely, because they want to move beyond well-trodden paths. To escape the boredom of everyday life they are searching for the kick, the thrill, the no-limit experience. It's about calculated risk between altitude flight and deep sea adventure.

  18. Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

    2010-05-01

    Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric

  19. Is prescribed lower extremity weight-bearing status after geriatric lower extremity trauma associated with increased mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gitajn, Ida Leah; Connelly, Daniel; Mascarenhas, Daniel; Breazeale, Stephen; Berger, Peter; Schoonover, Carrie; Martin, Brook; O'Toole, Robert V; Pensy, Raymond; Sciadini, Marcus

    2018-02-01

    Evaluate whether mortality after discharge is elevated in geriatric fracture patients whose lower extremity weight-bearing is restricted. Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Urban Level 1 trauma center PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: 1746 patients >65 years of age INTERVENTION: Post-operative lower extremity weight-bearing status MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality, as determined by the Social Security Death Index RESULTS: Univariate analysis demonstrated that patients who were weight-bearing as tolerated on bilateral lower extremities (BLE) had significantly higher 5-year mortality compared to patients with restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity and restricted weight-bearing on BLE (30%, 21% and 22% respectively, p bearing as tolerated on BLE, restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.20, p = 0.76) and restricted weight-bearing in BLE had a HR of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1.36, p = 0.73). In geriatric patients, prescribed weight-bearing status did not have a statistically significant association with mortality after discharge, when controlling for age, sex, body mass index, medical comorbidities, Injury Severity Scale (ISS), mechanism of injury, nonoperative treatment and admission GCS. This remained true in when the analysis was restricted to operative injuries only. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Variable ultrasonography findings of extremity lymphangioma: Pathologic correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Jong Young; Nam, Kyung Jin; Lee, Ki Nam; Kim, Chan Sung; Lee, Jin Hwa; Kim, Dae Chul

    2002-01-01

    The great majority of lymphangiomas occur in the neck (75%) and axilla (20%), but extremity lymphangioma is rare. We correlate variable sonographic features of extremity lymphangioma with pathologic findings. We reviewed the sonographic findings of extremity lymphangioma in 14 patients (M:F=8:6). The all cases were histologically confirmed by operation. The variable sonographic features of extremity lymphangioma were compared to pathologic findings. The multilocular cystic mass with ill defined boundaries was distinctive sonographic appearance of extremity lymphangioma. But there were variable sonographic findings such as heterogeneous echogenic mass or homogeneous echogenic portion. The histologic section of echogenic lesion reveals clusters of abnormal

  1. Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

  2. A Fourier analysis of extremal events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yuwei

    is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

  3. Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Castro Camilo, Daniela

    2016-05-11

    We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  4. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  5. Instability of extremal relativistic charged spheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anninos, Peter; Rothman, Tony

    2002-01-01

    With the question 'Can relativistic charged spheres form extremal black holes?' in mind, we investigate the properties of such spheres from a classical point of view. The investigation is carried out numerically by integrating the Oppenheimer-Volkov equation for relativistic charged fluid spheres and finding interior Reissner-Nordstroem solutions for these objects. We consider both constant density and adiabatic equations of state, as well as several possible charge distributions, and examine stability by both a normal mode and an energy analysis. In all cases, the stability limit for these spheres lies between the extremal (Q=M) limit and the black hole limit (R=R + ). That is, we find that charged spheres undergo gravitational collapse before they reach Q=M, suggesting that extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes produced by collapse are ruled out. A general proof of this statement would support a strong form of the cosmic censorship hypothesis, excluding not only stable naked singularities, but stable extremal black holes. The numerical results also indicate that although the interior mass-energy m(R) obeys the usual m/R + as Q→M. In the Appendix we also argue that Hawking radiation will not lead to an extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black hole. All our results are consistent with the third law of black hole dynamics, as currently understood

  6. The atmospheric boundary layer evening transitions: an observational and numerical study from two different datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sastre, Mariano; Yagüe, Carlos; Román-Cascón, Carlos; Maqueda, Gregorio; Ander Arrillaga, Jon

    2015-04-01

    In this work we study the temporal evolution of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) along the transition period from a diurnal typical convection to a nocturnal more frequently stable situation. This period is known as late afternoon or evening transition, depending on the specific definitions employed by different authors [1]. In order to obtain a proper characterization, we try to learn whether or not the behaviour of these transitional boundary layers is strongly dependent on local conditions. To do so, two sets of evening transitions are studied from data collected at two different experimental sites. These locations correspond to research facilities named CIBA (Spain) and CRA (France), which are the places where atmospheric field campaigns have been conducted during the last years, such as CIBA2008 and BLLAST 2011, respectively. In order to get comparable situations, we focus especially on transitions with weak synoptic forcing, and consider daily astronomical sunset as a reference time. A statistical analysis on main parameters related to the transition is carried out for both locations, and the average behaviour is shown as well as extreme values according to the timing. A similar pattern in the qualitative evolution of many variables is found. Nevertheless, several relevant differences in the progress of key variables are obtained too. Moisture, both from the soil and the air, is thought to have great relevance in explaining many of the differences found between the two sites. Some case studies are explored, focusing on the role played by the atmospheric turbulence. Complementary, numerical experiments are also performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model, in order to test the role of humidity, by artificially varying it in some of the simulations. [1] Lothon, M. and coauthors (2014): The BLLAST field experiment: Boundary-Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10931-10960.

  7. Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delson Chikobvu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

  8. AN EXTREMELY CARBON-RICH, EXTREMELY METAL-POOR STAR IN THE SEGUE 1 SYSTEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norris, John E.; Yong, David; Gilmore, Gerard; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.; Frebel, Anna

    2010-01-01

    We report the analysis of high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio, spectra of an extremely metal-poor, extremely C-rich red giant, Seg 1-7, in Segue 1-described in the literature alternatively as an unusually extended globular cluster or an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy. The radial velocity of Seg 1-7 coincides precisely with the systemic velocity of Segue 1, and its chemical abundance signature of [Fe/H] = -3.52, [C/Fe] = +2.3, [N/Fe] = +0.8, [Na/Fe] = +0.53, [Mg/Fe] = +0.94, [Al/Fe] = +0.23, and [Ba/Fe] < -1.0 is similar to that of the rare and enigmatic class of Galactic halo objects designated CEMP-no (carbon-rich, extremely metal-poor with no enhancement (over solar ratios) of heavy neutron-capture elements). This is the first star in a Milky Way 'satellite' that unambiguously lies on the metal-poor, C-rich branch of the Aoki et al. bimodal distribution of field halo stars in the ([C/Fe], [Fe/H])-plane. Available data permit us only to identify Seg 1-7 as a member of an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy or as debris from the Sgr dwarf spheroidal galaxy. In either case, this demonstrates that at extremely low abundance, [Fe/H ] <-3.0, star formation and associated chemical evolution proceeded similarly in the progenitors of both the field halo and satellite systems. By extension, this is consistent with other recent suggestions that the most metal-poor dwarf spheroidal and ultra-faint dwarf satellites were the building blocks of the Galaxy's outer halo.

  9. Extremism from the perspective of a system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zinchenko, Yury P.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Extremism is seen as a complex, multilevel, and multicomponent phenomenon. The problems of modern science in understanding extremism are revealed. The following bases of extremism as a system phenomenon are singled out: social factors, latent extremism, and extremist acts. It is demonstrated that a system approach makes it possible to shape a notion of a subject as a system, to identify patterns of the manifestations of the given phenomenon, and to translate them into concrete practices.

  10. Extremity x-ray

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

  11. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.; Huser, Raphaë l

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event

  12. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  13. Guide to Improving Parenting Education in Even Start Family Literacy Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Douglas R.; D'Angelo, Diane

    This guide provides a framework and suggestions for strengthening the quality and impact of parenting education services in Even Start. It is aimed at Even Start state coordinators and local program administrators responsible for supporting and monitoring the quality of parenting education services in Even Start, and at local program staff…

  14. (When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

    2015-04-01

    In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

  15. The Damage To The Armour Layer Due To Extreme Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oztunali Ozbahceci, Berguzar; Ergin, Aysen; Takayama, Tomotsuka

    2010-05-01

    The sea waves are not regular but random and chaotic. In order to understand this randomness, it is common to make individual wave analysis in time domain or spectral analysis in frequency domain. Characteristic wave heights like Hmax, H%2,H1-10, H1-3, Hmean are obtained through individual wave analysis in time domain. These characteristic wave heights are important because they are used in the design of different type of coastal structures. It is common to use significant wave height, H1-3,for the design of rubble mound structures. Therefore, only spectrally derived or zero-crossing significant wave height is usually reported for the rubble mound breakwaters without any information on larger waves. However, even the values of H1-3are similar; some train of irregular waves may exhibit a large fluctuation of instantaneous wave energy, while another train may not show such a fluctuation (Goda, 1998). Moreover, freak or rogue wave, simply defined as the wave exceeding at least twice the significant wave height may also occur. Those larger waves were called as extreme waves in this study and the effect of extreme waves on the damage to the armour layer of rubble mound breakwaters was investigated by means of hydraulic model experiment. Rock armored rubble mound breakwater model with 1:1.5 slope was constructed in the wave channel of Hydraulics Laboratory of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute of Kyoto University, Japan. The model was consisted of a permeable core layer, a filter and armour layer with two stones thicknesses. Size of stones were same for both of the slopes as Dn50(armour)=0.034m, Dn50(filter)=0.021m and Dn50(core)=0.0148m for armour, filter and core layers, respectively. Time series which are approximately equal to 1000 waves, with similar significant wave height but different extreme wave height cases were generated. In order to generate necessary time series in the wave channel, they were firstly computed by numerically. For the numerical

  16. ALGORITMA PARALEL ODD EVEN TRANSPOSITION PADA MODEL JARINGAN NON-LINIER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernastuti .

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Odd-even-transposition adalah suatu algoritma paralel yang merupakan pengembangan dari algoritma sekuensial “bubble sort”. Algoritma odd-even-transposition ini didesain khusus untuk model jaringan array linier (homogen. Untuk n elemen data, kompleksitas waktu dari algoritma bubble sort adalah O(n2, sedangkan pada odd-even-transposition yang bekerja di atas n prosesor adalah (n. Ada peningkatan kecepatan waktu pada kinerja algoritma paralel ini sebesar n kali dibanding algoritma sekuensialnya. Hypercube dimensi k adalah model jaringan non-linier (non-homogen terdiri dari n = 2k prosesor, di mana setiap prosesor berderajat k. Model jaringan Fibonacci cube dan extended Lucas cube masing-masing merupakan model subjaringan hypercube dengan jumlah prosesor < 2k prosesor dan maksimum derajat prosesornya adalah k. Pada paper ini, diperlihatkan bagaimana algoritma odd-even-transposition dapat dijalankan juga pada model jaringan komputer cluster non-linier hypercube, Fibonacci cube, dan extended Lucas cube dengan kompleksitas waktu O(n. Odd-even-transposition is a parallel algorithm which is the development of sequential algorithm “bubble sort”. Odd-even transposition algorithm is specially designed for linear array network model (homogeneous. For n data elements, the time complexity of bubble sort algorithm is O(n2, while the odd-even-transposition that works with n processor is (n. There in an increase in the speed of time on the performance of this parallel algorithms for n times than its sequential algorithm. K-dimensional hypercube is a non-linear network model (non-homogeneous consists of n = 2k processors, where each processor has k degree . Network model of Fibonacci cube and extended Lucas cube are the hypercube sub-network model with the number of processors

  17. Morning or evening administration of nasal calcitonin?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlemmer, A; Ravn, Pernille; Hassager, C

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of intranasal salmon calcitonin (sCT) administration (200 IE), given either in the morning (8:00) or evening (21:00), on the known circadian variation in biochemical markers of bone turnover. An open, placebo-controlled, randomized, crossover......). Serum osteocalcin (sOC) was measured by radioimmunoassay (RIA). The first 24 h study was performed without intervention. Prior to this control study the participants were randomized to either morning (8:00) or evening (21:00) sCT (200 IE). sCT administrations were given 4-5 days prior to and during...... the second study. After a washing-out period of 2 weeks the participants were given 200 IE of sCT at the reverse time of the day 5 days prior to and during the third study. At all timepoints, urinary CrossLaps/Cr exhibited a significant (p

  18. Jellyfish: the origin and distribution of extreme ram-pressure stripping events in massive galaxy clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPartland, Conor; Ebeling, Harald; Roediger, Elke; Blumenthal, Kelly

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the observational signatures and physical origin of ram-pressure stripping (RPS) in 63 massive galaxy clusters at z = 0.3-0.7, based on images obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope. Using a training set of a dozen `jellyfish' galaxies identified earlier in the same imaging data, we define morphological criteria to select 211 additional, less obvious cases of RPS. Spectroscopic follow-up observations of 124 candidates so far confirmed 53 as cluster members. For the brightest and most favourably aligned systems, we visually derive estimates of the projected direction of motion based on the orientation of apparent compression shocks and debris trails. Our findings suggest that the onset of these events occurs primarily at large distances from the cluster core (>400 kpc), and that the trajectories of the affected galaxies feature high-impact parameters. Simple models show that such trajectories are highly improbable for galaxy infall along filaments but common for infall at high velocities, even after observational biases are accounted for, provided the duration of the resulting RPS events is ≲500 Myr. We thus tentatively conclude that extreme RPS events are preferentially triggered by cluster mergers, an interpretation that is supported by the disturbed dynamical state of many of the host clusters. This hypothesis implies that extreme RPS might occur also near the cores of merging poor clusters or even merging groups of galaxies. Finally, we present nine additional `jellyfish" galaxies at z > 0.3 discovered by us, thereby doubling the number of such systems known at intermediate redshift.

  19. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  20. A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.; Janoski, T. P.

    2017-12-01

    In the northeastern United States, many of the strongest impacts from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are associated with storms that exhibit slow movement, unusual tracks, or exceptional intensity. Examples of extreme ETCs include the Appalachian storm of November 1950, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the Superstorm of March 1993. Owing to the rare nature of these events, it is difficult to quantify the associated risks (e.g. high winds, storm surge) given the limited duration of high-quality observational datasets. Furthermore, storms with even greater impacts than those observed may be possible, particularly in a warming climate. In the context of tropical cyclones, Lin and Emanuel (2016) have used the metaphor "grey swans" to refer to high-impact events that have not been observed but may be physically possible. One method for analyzing "grey swans" is to generate a larger sample of ETCs using a coupled climate model. Therefore, we use long simulations (over 1,000 years with atmospheric constituents fixed at 1990 levels) from a global climate model (GFDL FLOR) with 50km atmospheric resolution. FLOR has been shown to realistically simulate the spatial distribution and climatology of ETCs during the reanalysis era. We will discuss the climatological features of these extreme ETC events.

  2. Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Asadieh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

  3. Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Je-Myung; Kwon, Hae-Yeon; Kim, Ha-Roo; Kim, Bo-In; Jung, Ju-Hyeon

    2013-12-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity.

  4. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Approximate Waveforms for Extreme-Mass-Ratio Inspirals: The Chimera Scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sopuerta, Carlos F; Yunes, Nicolás

    2012-01-01

    We describe a new kludge scheme to model the dynamics of generic extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs; stellar compact objects spiraling into a spinning supermassive black hole) and their gravitational-wave emission. The Chimera scheme is a hybrid method that combines tools from different approximation techniques in General Relativity: (i) A multipolar, post-Minkowskian expansion for the far-zone metric perturbation (the gravitational waveforms) and for the local prescription of the self-force; (ii) a post-Newtonian expansion for the computation of the multipole moments in terms of the trajectories; and (iii) a BH perturbation theory expansion when treating the trajectories as a sequence of self-adjusting Kerr geodesies. The EMRI trajectory is made out of Kerr geodesic fragments joined via the method of osculating elements as dictated by the multipolar post-Minkowskian radiation-reaction prescription. We implemented the proper coordinate mapping between Boyer-Lindquist coordinates, associated with the Kerr geodesies, and harmonic coordinates, associated with the multipolar post-Minkowskian decomposition. The Chimera scheme is thus a combination of approximations that can be used to model generic inspirals of systems with extreme to intermediate mass ratios, and hence, it can provide valuable information for future space-based gravitational-wave observatories, like LISA, and even for advanced ground detectors. The local character in time of our multipolar post-Minkowskian self-force makes this scheme amenable to study the possible appearance of transient resonances in generic inspirals.

  6. Atomic collisions under extreme conditions in space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itikawa, Yukikazu

    1987-01-01

    In space, atoms and molecules are often placed under the extreme conditions which are very difficult to be realized on Earth. For instance, extremely hot and dense plasmas are found in and around various stellar objects (e.g., neutron stars) on one hand and extremely cold and diffuse gases prevail in interstellar space on the other. There is so strong a magnetic field that electron clouds in atoms and molecules are distorted. The study of atomic collisions under the extreme conditions is not only helpful in understanding the astrophysical environment but also reveals new aspects of the physics of atoms and molecules. This paper is an invitation to the study. (References are not exhaustive but only provide a clue with which more details can be found.) (author)

  7. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  8. Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

  9. Even and odd symplectic and Kaehlerian structures on projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khudaverdyan, O.M.; Nersessyan, A.P.

    1992-01-01

    Supergeneralization of CP(N) provided by even and odd Kaehlerian structures from Hamiltonian reduction are construct. Operator Δ which used in Batalin - Vilkovsky quantization formalism and mechanics which are bi-Hamiltonian under corresponding even and odd Poisson brackets are considered. 21 refs

  10. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  11. Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

    2013-09-01

    Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts ( W max ) and 0-6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Odd - even staggering, a result of γ - band split

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.; Gupta, D.K.; Singh, Yuvraj; Gupta, K.K.; Bihari, Chhail; Sharma, Aparna; Varshney, A.K.; Varshney, Mani

    2011-01-01

    The structure of low - lying K = 2+ gamma band in even - even nuclei represents quadrupole vibration breaking axial symmetry in unified collective model of Bohr-Mottelson. In the group theoretical approach of the Interacting boson model (IBM) the band structure can belong to one of the three limiting symmetries of U (6) algebra viz. U (5), SU (3) and O (6), corresponding to the anharmonic vibrator, deformed rotor and γ - unstable respectively

  13. Nutrition security under extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

  14. Superradiantly stable non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Jia-Hui [School of Physics and Telecommunication Engineering, South China Normal University, Laboratory of Quantum Engineering and Quantum Materials, Guangzhou (China); Mai, Zhan-Feng [Beijing Normal University, Department of Physics, Center for Advanced Quantum Studies, Beijing (China)

    2016-06-15

    The superradiant stability is investigated for non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes. We use an algebraic method to demonstrate that all non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes are superradiantly stable against a charged massive scalar perturbation. This improves the results obtained before for non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes. (orig.)

  15. BREAK-EVEN IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Mihaela IONESCU

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Integrated in a competitive environment, the companies are forced to know better their costs, to determine as precisely as possible the sales prices and the profit margins achievable per product. When the entrepreneurs initiate a new business, invest in a new project or when they supervise the current work, the study of breakeven allows minimizing of the risks and the uncertainties, and also allows measuring the performance of the projects. Break-Even is an indicator that allows the company management to set minimal commercial targets to meet the expenses of the enterprise or that sets the degree of utilization of production capacities in relation to a desired level of profit. It highlights the correlations between the dynamic of production, implicit of income and the dynamic of costs, grouped into variable costs and fixed costs. Used in a prospective fashion, Break-Even allows planning and optimizing of the enterprise's sales and costs, not only short-term but also medium and long term.

  16. Formulation of Hamiltonian mechanics with even and odd Poisson brackets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khudaverdyan, O.M.; Nersesyan, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    A possibility is studied as to constrict the odd Poisson bracket and odd Hamiltonian by the given dynamics in phase superspace - the even Poisson bracket and even Hamiltonian so the transition to the new structure does not change the equations of motion. 9 refs

  17. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2018-05-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  18. Cardiovascular consequences of extreme prematurity: the EPICure study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEniery, Carmel M; Bolton, Charlotte E; Fawke, Joseph; Hennessy, Enid; Stocks, Janet; Wilkinson, Ian B; Cockcroft, John R; Marlow, Neil

    2011-07-01

    The long-term consequences of extreme prematurity are becoming increasingly important, given recent improvements in neonatal intensive care. The aim of the current study was to examine the cardiovascular consequences of extreme prematurity in 11-year-olds born at or before 25 completed weeks of gestation. Age and sex-matched classmates were recruited as controls. Information concerning perinatal and maternal history was collected, and current anthropometric characteristics were measured in 219 children born extremely preterm and 153 classmates. A subset of the extremely preterm children (n = 68) and classmates (n = 90) then underwent detailed haemodynamic investigations, including measurement of supine blood pressure (BP), aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV, a measure of aortic stiffness) and augmentation index (AIx, a measure of arterial pressure wave reflections). Seated brachial systolic and diastolic BP were not different between extremely preterm children and classmates (P = 0.3 for both), although there was a small, significant elevation in supine mean and diastolic BP in the extremely preterm children (P prematurity is associated with altered arterial haemodynamics in children, not evident from the examination of brachial BP alone. Moreover, the smaller, preresistance and resistance vessels rather than large elastic arteries appear to be most affected. Children born extremely preterm may be at increased future cardiovascular risk.

  19. A compliant mechanism for inspecting extremely confined spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascareñas, David; Moreu, Fernando; Cantu, Precious; Shields, Daniel; Wadden, Jack; El Hadedy, Mohamed; Farrar, Charles

    2017-11-01

    We present a novel, compliant mechanism that provides the capability to navigate extremely confined spaces for the purpose of infrastructure inspection. Extremely confined spaces are commonly encountered during infrastructure inspection. Examples of such spaces can include pipes, conduits, and ventilation ducts. Often these infrastructure features go uninspected simply because there is no viable way to access their interior. In addition, it is not uncommon for extremely confined spaces to possess a maze-like architecture that must be selectively navigated in order to properly perform an inspection. Efforts by the imaging sensor community have resulted in the development of imaging sensors on the millimeter length scale. Due to their compact size, they are able to inspect many extremely confined spaces of interest, however, the means to deliver these sensors to the proper location to obtain the desired images are lacking. To address this problem, we draw inspiration from the field of endoscopic surgery. Specifically we consider the work that has already been done to create long flexible needles that are capable of being steered through the human body. These devices are typically referred to as ‘steerable needles.’ Steerable needle technology is not directly applicable to the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces, but it does provide guidance on how this problem should be approached. Specifically, the super-elastic nitinol tubing material that allows steerable needles to operate is also appropriate for the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces. Furthermore, the portion of the mechanism that enters the extremely confined space is completely mechanical in nature. The mechanical nature of the device is an advantage when the extremely confined space features environmental hazards such as radiation that could degrade an electromechanically operated mechanism. Here, we present a compliant mechanism

  20. Conference on Extreme Value Theory and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Lechner, James; Simiu, Emil

    1994-01-01

    It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis­ sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so­ cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the the...

  1. PREDICTION OF THE EXTREMAL SHAPE FACTOR OF SPHEROIDAL PARTICLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Hlubinka

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In the stereological unfolding problem for spheroidal particles the extremal shape factor is predicted. The theory of extreme values has been used to show that extremes of the planar shape factor of particle sections tend to the same limit distribution as extremes of the original shape factor for both the conditional and marginal distribution. Attention is then paid to the extreme shape factor conditioned by the particle size. Normalizing constants are evaluated for a parametric model and the numerical procedure is tested on real data from metallography.

  2. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events; Interactions d'echelles en economie: application a l'evaluation des dommages economiques du changement climatique et des evenements extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, S

    2005-06-15

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  3. Liquid Water in the Extremely Shallow Martian Subsurface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, A.; Shivak, J. N.

    2012-01-01

    Availability of liquid water is one of the major constraints for the potential Martian biosphere. Although liquid water is unstable on the surface of Mars due to low atmospheric pressures, it has been suggested that liquid films of water could be present in the Martian soil. Here we explored a possibility of the liquid water formation in the extremely shallow (1-3 cm) subsurface layer under low atmospheric pressures (0.1-10 mbar) and low ("Martian") surface temperatures (approx.-50 C-0 C). We used a new Goddard Martian simulation chamber to demonstrate that even in the clean frozen soil with temperatures as low as -25C the amount of mobile water can reach several percents. We also showed that during brief periods of simulated daylight warming the shallow subsurface ice sublimates, the water vapor diffuses through porous surface layer of soil temporarily producing supersaturated conditions in the soil, which leads to the formation of additional liquid water. Our results suggest that despite cold temperatures and low atmospheric pressures, Martian soil just several cm below the surface can be habitable.

  4. CFT duals for extreme black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Thomas; Strominger, Andrew; Murata, Keiju; Nishioka, Tatsuma

    2009-01-01

    It is argued that the general four-dimensional extremal Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black hole is holographically dual to a (chiral half of a) two-dimensional CFT, generalizing an argument given recently for the special case of extremal Kerr. Specifically, the asymptotic symmetries of the near-horizon region of the general extremal black hole are shown to be generated by a Virasoro algebra. Semiclassical formulae are derived for the central charge and temperature of the dual CFT as functions of the cosmological constant, Newton's constant and the black hole charges and spin. We then show, assuming the Cardy formula, that the microscopic entropy of the dual CFT precisely reproduces the macroscopic Bekenstein-Hawking area law. This CFT description becomes singular in the extreme Reissner-Nordstrom limit where the black hole has no spin. At this point a second dual CFT description is proposed in which the global part of the U(1) gauge symmetry is promoted to a Virasoro algebra. This second description is also found to reproduce the area law. Various further generalizations including higher dimensions are discussed.

  5. Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bilyay

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H/Hs ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of Hsrms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f–9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f–4, –5. The directional spreading is measured with the parameter Smax and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

  6. The evolution of extreme altruism and inequality in insect societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnieks, Francis L W; Helanterä, Heikki

    2009-11-12

    In eusocial organisms, some individuals specialize in reproduction and others in altruistic helping. The evolution of eusociality is, therefore, also the evolution of remarkable inequality. For example, a colony of honeybees (Apis mellifera) may contain 50 000 females all of whom can lay eggs. But 100 per cent of the females and 99.9 per cent of the males are offspring of the queen. How did such extremes evolve? Phylogenetic analyses show that high relatedness was almost certainly necessary for the origin of eusociality. However, even the highest family levels of kinship are insufficient to cause the extreme inequality seen in e.g. honeybees via 'voluntary altruism'. 'Enforced altruism' is needed, i.e. social pressures that deter individuals from attempting to reproduce. Coercion acts at two stages in an individual's life cycle. Queens are typically larger so larvae can be coerced into developing into workers by being given less food. Workers are coerced into working by 'policing', in which workers or the queen eat worker-laid eggs or aggress fertile workers. In some cases, individuals rebel, such as when stingless bee larvae develop into dwarf queens. The incentive to rebel is strong as an individual is the most closely related to its own offspring. However, because individuals gain inclusive fitness by rearing relatives, there is also a strong incentive to 'acquiesce' to social coercion. In a queenright honeybee colony, the policing of worker-laid eggs is very effective, which results in most workers working instead of attempting to reproduce. Thus, extreme altruism is due to both kinship and coercion. Altruism is frequently seen as a Darwinian puzzle but was not a puzzle that troubled Darwin. Darwin saw his difficulty in explaining how individuals that did not reproduce could evolve, given that natural selection was based on the accumulation of small heritable changes. The recognition that altruism is an evolutionary puzzle, and the solution was to wait another

  7. Hygienic diagnosis in extreme conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sofronov, G.A.

    1997-01-01

    Review for book by M.P. Zakharchenko, S.A. Lopatin, G.N. Novozhilov, V.I. Zakharov Hygienic diagnosis in extreme conditions is presented discussing the problem of people health preservation under extreme conditions. Hygienic diagnosis is considered illustrated by cases of hostilities (Afghan War), earthquake response in Armenia (1988) and Chernobyl accident response. Attention is paid to the estimation of radiation doses to people and characteristics of main types of dosimeters. The high scientific level of the book is marked

  8. Drought assessment in the Duero basin (Central Spain) by means of multivariate extreme value statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallache, M.

    2012-04-01

    Droughts cause important losses. On the Iberian Peninsula, for example, non-irrigated agriculture and the tourism sector are affected in regular intervals. The goal of this study is the description of droughts and their dependence in the Duero basin in Central Spain. To do so, daily or monthly precipitation data is used. Here cumulative precipitation deficits below a threshold define meteorological droughts. This drought indicator is similar to the commonly used standard precipitation index. However, here the focus lies on the modeling of severe droughts, which is done by applying multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT) to model extreme drought events. Data from several stations are assessed jointly, thus the uncertainty of the results is reduced. Droughts are a complex phenomenon, their severity, spatial extension and duration has to be taken into account. Our approach captures severity and spatial extension. In general we find a high correlation between deficit volumes and drought duration, thus the duration is not explicitely modeled. We apply a MEVT model with asymmetric logistic dependence function, which is capable to model asymptotic dependence and independence (cf. Ramos and Ledford, 2009). To summarize the information on the dependence in the joint tail of the extreme drought events, we utilise the fragility index (Geluk et al., 2007). Results show that droughts also occur frequently in winter. Moreover, it is very common for one site to suffer dry conditions, whilst neighboring areas experience normal or even humid conditions. Interpolation is thus difficult. Bivariate extremal dependence is present in the data. However, most stations are at least asymptotically independent. The according fragility indices are important information for risk calculations. The emerging spatial patterns for bivariate dependence are mostly influenced by topography. When looking at the dependence between more than two stations, it shows that joint extremes can occur more

  9. High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui

    2018-06-01

    The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitations over China is investigated by using the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model was driven by the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 with Earth System components and coupling (HadGEM2-ES). The results of both models are analyzed in terms of mean precipitation and indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R99p, SDII, WDF, and CWD) over China at the resolution of 25 km under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the baseline period (1976-2005) and two future periods (2036-2065 and 2070-2099). With improved resolution, the PRECIS model is able to better represent the fine-scale physical process than HadGEM2-ES. It can provide reliable spatial patterns of precipitation and its related extremes with high correlations to observations. Moreover, there is a notable improvement in temporal patterns simulation through the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model better reproduces the regional annual cycle and frequencies of daily precipitation intensity than its driving GCM. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both the HadGEM2-ES and the precis project increasing annual precipitation over the entire country for two future periods. Precipitation increase in winter is greater than the increase in summer. The results suggest that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 would further intensify the magnitude of projected precipitation changes by both PRECIS and HadGEM2-ES. For example, some parts of south China with decreased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect even less precipitation under RCP8.5; regions (northwest, northcentral and northeast China) with increased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect more precipitation under RCP8.5. Apart from the projected increase in annual total precipitation, the results also suggest that there will be an increase in the days with precipitation higher than

  10. Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

    2014-05-01

    The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

  11. Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

  12. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) in the period 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes always influenced human activities and caused great material damage or even loss of human lives. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. In this study, written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900. The taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, and the impacts on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about

  13. The collapse of turbulence in the evening

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiel, van de B.J.H.; Moene, A.F.; Jonker, H.J.J.; Baas, P.; Basu, S.; Sun, J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    A common experience in everyday weather is the fact that near-surface wind speeds tend to weaken in the evening, particularly in fair weather conditions. This cessation of wind usually coincides with the collapse of turbulence which leads to a quiet flow near the ground. As the absence of turbulent

  14. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    use of historical information (to the Brest tide gauge located in the French Atlantic coast). In addition, the present work contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. Historical data are generally imprecise, and their inaccuracy should be properly accounted for in the analysis. However, as several authors believe, even with substantial uncertainty in the data, the use of historical information is a viable mean to improve estimates of rare events related to extreme environmental conditions. The preliminary results of this study suggest that the use of historical information increases the representativity of an outlier in the systematic data. It is also shown that the use of historical information, specifically the perception sea water level, can be considered as a reliable solution for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, which will occur during its lifetime, with an appropriate optimum of risk level. Findings are of practical relevance for applications in storm surge risk analysis and flood management.

  15. Lymphoscintigraphy of the lower extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbasi, N.Z.

    1990-01-01

    Fifty one lower extremities of 26 normal healthy volunteers and 26 extremities of 13 patients with oedema have been studied. Dynamic quantitative lymphoscintigraphy using 99Tc-m antimony sulphide colloid during passive exercise as well as before and after active exercise was performed. parameters of lymphatic function including percentage of radioactivity cleared from the injection site, the percentage uptake by the inguinal lymph nodes, the time of arrival of activity at the regional lymph nodes and the lymphatic reserve index have been evaluated. The percentage clearance of activity from the injection site was found technically difficult to standardize and proved to be an unreliable parameter of lymphatic function. However, the quantitation of nodal uptake, the lymphatic transit time and the lymphatic reserve capacity accurately depicted the lymphatic functional status of an individual. The physiologic parameters of lymphatic function of the contralateral lower extremities were compared and a physiologic difference in the lymphatic capacity of the two limbs was scintigraphically documented. (author)

  16. Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    resilience planning even as precise prediction of extremes remains difficult. Increased research is necessary to understand hazards, vulnerability, and exposure of populations to characterize the risk of shocks and mechanisms by which unexpected losses drive land-use transitions.

  17. Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

    2014-01-01

    Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

  18. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  19. Forthcoming Break-Even Conditions of Tokamak Plasma Performance for Fusion Energy Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiwatari, Ryoji; Okano, Kunihiko; Asaoka, Yoshiyuki; Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ogawa, Yuichi

    The present study reveals forthcoming break-even conditions of tokamak plasma performance for the fusion energy development. The first condition is the electric break-even condition, which means that the gross electric power generation is equal to the circulating power in a power plant. This is required for fusion energy to be recognized as a suitable candidate for an alternative energy source. As for the plasma performance (normalized beta value ΒN), confinement improvement factor for H-mode HH, the ratio of plasma density to Greenwald density fnGW), the electric break-even condition requires the simultaneous achievement of 1.2 market. By using a long-term world energy scenario, a break-even price for introduction of fusion energy in the year 2050 is estimated to lie between 65 mill/kWh and 135 mill/kWh under the constraint of 550 ppm CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. In the present study, this break-even price is applied to the economic break-even condition. However, because this break-even price is based on the present energy scenario including uncertainties, the economic break-even condition discussed here should not be considered the sufficient condition, but a necessary condition. Under the conditions of Btmax = 16 T, ηe = 40 %, plant availability 60 %, and a radial build with/without CS coil, the economic break-even condition requires ΒN ˜ 5.0 for 65 mill/kWh of lower break-even price case. Finally, the present study reveals that the demonstration of steady-state operation with ΒN ˜ 3.0 in the ITER project leads to the upper region of the break-even price in the present world energy scenario, which implies that it is necessary to improve the plasma performance beyond that of the ITER advanced plasma operation.

  20. Forthcoming break-even conditions of tokamak plasma performance for fusion energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiwatari, Ryoji; Okano, Kunihiko; Asaoka, Yoshiyuki; Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ogawa, Yuichi

    2005-01-01

    The present study reveals forthcoming break-even conditions of tokamak plasma performance for the fusion energy development. The first condition is the electric break-even condition, which means that the gross electric power generation is equal to the circulating power in a power plant. This is required for fusion energy to be recognized as a suitable candidate for an alternative energy source. As for the plasma performance (normalized beta value β N , confinement improvement factor for H-mode HH, the ratio of plasma density to Greenwald density fn GW ), the electric break-even condition requires the simultaneous achievement of 1.2 N GW tmax =16 T, thermal efficiency η e =30%, and current drive power P NBI N ∼1.8, HH≠1.0, and fn GW ∼0.9, which correspond to the ITER reference operation parameters, have a strong potential to achieve the electric break-even condition. The second condition is the economic break-even condition, which is required for fusion energy to be selected as an alternative energy source in the energy market. By using a long-term world energy scenario, a break-even price for introduction of fusion energy in the year 2050 is estimated to lie between 65 mill/kWh and 135 mill/kWh under the constraint of 550 ppm CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. In the present study, this break-even price is applied to the economic break-even condition. However, because this break-even price is based on the present energy scenario including uncertainties, the economic break-even condition discussed here should not be considered the sufficient condition, but a necessary condition. Under the conditions of B tmax =16 T, η e =40%, plant availability 60%, and a radial build with/without CS coil, the economic break-even condition requires β N ∼5.0 for 65 mill/kWh of lower break-even price case. Finally, the present study reveals that the demonstration of steady-state operation with β N ∼3.0 in the ITER project leads to the upper region of the break-even

  1. Extreme events in total ozone over the Northern mid-latitudes: an analysis based on long-term data sets from five European ground-based stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rieder, Harald E. (Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)), e-mail: hr2302@columbia.edu; Jancso, Leonhardt M. (Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics, Univ. of Innsbruck, Innsbruck (Austria)); Di Rocco, Stefania (Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)) (and others)

    2011-11-15

    We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone time series. The influence of these extreme events on observed mean values, long-term trends and changes is analysed. The results show a decrease in EHOs and an increase in ELOs during the last decades, and establish that the observed downward trend in column ozone during the 1970-1990s is strongly dominated by changes in the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, it is shown that clear 'fingerprints' of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) and chemistry [ozone depleting substances (ODSs), polar vortex ozone loss] can be found in the frequency distribution of ozone extremes, even if no attribution is possible from standard metrics (e.g. annual mean values). The analysis complements earlier analysis for the world's longest total ozone record at Arosa, Switzerland, confirming and revealing the strong influence of atmospheric dynamics on observed ozone changes. The results provide clear evidence that in addition to ODS, volcanic eruptions and strong/moderate ENSO and NAO events had significant influence on column ozone in the European sector

  2. Rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Bhaskar N

    1997-01-01

    Rhabdomyosarcoma is the most common soft tissue sarcoma accounting for almost 55%. These tumors arise from unsegmented mesoderm or primitive mesenchyma, which have the capacity to differentiate into muscle. Less than 5% occur in the first year of life. Extremity rhabdomyosarcoma are mainly seen in the adolescent years. The most common histologic subtype is the alveolar variant. Other characteristics of extremity rhabdomyosarcoma include a predilection for lymph node metastasis, a high local failure, and a relatively low survival rate. They often present as slow painless masses; however, lesions in the hand and foot often present as painful masses and imaging studies may show invasion of the bone. Initial diagnostic approaches include needle biopsy or incisional biopsy for larger lesions. Excisional biopsy is indicated preferably for lesions less than 2.5 cm. following this in most instances therapy is initiated with multi agent chemotherapy depending upon response, the next modality may be either surgery with intent to cure or radiation therapy. Amputation of an extremity for local control is not considered in most instances. Prognostic factors that have been determined over the years to be of significance by multi variant analysis have included age, tumor size, invasiveness, presence of either nodal or distant metastasis, and complete excision whenever feasible, with supplemental radiation therapy for local control

  3. Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libanda Brigadier

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease in extremely wet rainfall (R99p. Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase in simple daily intensity (SDII. Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.

  4. Geogrid reinforced road subgrade influence on the pavement evenness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šiukščius, A.; Vorobjovas, V.; Vaitkus, A.

    2018-05-01

    As a result of increasing geogrid reinforcement applications in the road subgrade, there are number of projects where geogrid reinforcement is used to control road pavement evenness when there are small layers of peat or mud deeper under road construction. For this task geogrid reinforcement application is not documented but widely used in Lithuania for over a decade. This paper evaluates the long term influence of the geogrid reinforced soil influence on the road surface evenness, when the organic soils stratify in the deeper layers of the subgrade. The geological conditions of the investigated sections are reviewed. The experiment methodology and test results are described, which leads to the conclusions and insights how the pavement evenness depend on the geological conditions and its enhancement. The question is raised about the need for including this geogrid application to the normative documentation. Explanation of the problems that are encountered and the need for further research is given.

  5. Tukey max-stable processes for spatial extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang; Genton, Marc G.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new type of max-stable process that we call the Tukey max-stable process for spatial extremes. It brings additional flexibility to modeling dependence structures among spatial extremes. The statistical properties of the Tukey max

  6. Lower extremity muscle activation during baseball pitching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Brian M; Stodden, David F; Nixon, Megan K

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate muscle activation levels of select lower extremity muscles during the pitching motion. Bilateral surface electromyography data on 5 lower extremity muscles (biceps femoris, rectus femoris, gluteus maximus, vastus medialis, and gastrocnemius) were collected on 11 highly skilled baseball pitchers and compared with individual maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) data. The pitching motion was divided into 4 distinct phases: phase 1, initiation of pitching motion to maximum stride leg knee height; phase 2, maximum stride leg knee height to stride foot contact (SFC); phase 3, SFC to ball release; and phase 4, ball release to 0.5 seconds after ball release (follow-through). Results indicated that trail leg musculature elicited moderate to high activity levels during phases 2 and 3 (38-172% of MVIC). Muscle activity levels of the stride leg were moderate to high during phases 2-4 (23-170% of MVIC). These data indicate a high demand for lower extremity strength and endurance. Specifically, coaches should incorporate unilateral and bilateral lower extremity exercises for strength improvement or maintenance and to facilitate dynamic stabilization of the lower extremities during the pitching motion.

  7. Near-horizon symmetries of extremal black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunduri, Hari K; Lucietti, James; Reall, Harvey S

    2007-01-01

    Recent work has demonstrated an attractor mechanism for extremal rotating black holes subject to the assumption of a near-horizon SO(2, 1) symmetry. We prove the existence of this symmetry for any extremal black hole with the same number of rotational symmetries as known four- and five-dimensional solutions (including black rings). The result is valid for a general two-derivative theory of gravity coupled to Abelian vectors and uncharged scalars, allowing for a non-trivial scalar potential. We prove that it remains valid in the presence of higher-derivative corrections. We show that SO(2, 1)-symmetric near-horizon solutions can be analytically continued to give SU(2)-symmetric black hole solutions. For example, the near-horizon limit of an extremal 5D Myers-Perry black hole is related by analytic continuation to a non-extremal cohomogeneity-1 Myers-Perry solution

  8. Meaning and Forms of Political Extremism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uwe Backes

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The article seeks to contribute to the conceptualisation of political extremism and to lay a foundation for further theoretical studies which are explanatory in nature. A sketch of the history of the concepts follows a discussion of structural characteristics and then a typological examination of forms of extremism, particularly those of the 20th and 21st century.

  9. Extremely strict ideals in Banach spaces

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Motivated by the notion of an ideal introduced by Godefroy et al. (Stu- dia Math. 104 (1993) 13–59), in this article, we introduce and study the notion of an extremely strict ideal. For a Poulsen simplex K, we show that the space of affine contin- uous functions on K is an extremely strict ideal in the space of continuous ...

  10. A Vision-Based Method For Analyzing Yarn Evenness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SN Niles

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Yarn evenness is a key factor in its performance and in the properties of the material produced from the yarn. The presence of defects in a yarn will result in the deterioration in the quality and usability of the yarn. While many methods are available to ascertain the yarn evenness many of them are tedious and dependent on the operator for its results while others though less subjective and of high speed are prohibitively expensive. This paper outlines a method which uses a cost-effective image capture device and image processing algorithms to process the captured images generate a diameter variation plot and analyse the same to count the number of thick and thin places in the yarn.

  11. Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

  12. Consistent evaluations of (n,2n) and (n,np) reaction excitation functions for some even-even isotopes using empirical systematics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manokhin, Vassily N. [Russian Nuclear Data Center, Institute of Physics and Power Engineering, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Odano, Naoteru; Hasegawa, Akira [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-03-01

    An approach for consistent evaluation of (n,2n) and (n,np) reaction excitation functions for some even-even isotopes with the (n,np) reaction thresholds lower than (n,2n) reaction ones is described. For determination of cross sections in the maximum of the (n,2n) and (n,np) reaction excitation functions some empirical systematics developed by Manokhin were used together with trends in dependence of gaps between the (n,2n) and (n,np) thresholds on atomic mass number A. The shapes of the (n,2n) and (n,np) reaction excitation functions were calculated using the normalized functions from the Manokhin's systematics. Excitation functions of (n,2n) and (n,np) reactions were evaluated for several nuclei by using the systematics and it was found that the approach used for the present study gives reasonable results. (author)

  13. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  14. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  15. High-spin states in 214Rn, 216Ra and a study of even-even N = 128 systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loennroth, T.; Horn, D.; Baktash, C.; Lister, C.J.; Young, G.R.

    1983-01-01

    High-spin states in 214 Rn and 216 Ra have been studied by means of the reaction 208 Pb( 13 C, α 3n #betta#) 214 Rn and 208 Pb( 13 C, 5n #betta#) 216 Ra at beam energies in the range 75--95 MeV. In-beam spectroscopy techniques, including #betta#-decay excitation functions, α-#betta# coincidences, #betta#-#betta# coincidences, #betta#-ray angular distributions, and pulsed-beam-#betta# timing, were utilized to establish level energies, #betta#-ray multipolarities, J/sup π/ assignments, and isomeric lifetimes. Excited states with spins up to 23h in 214 Rn and roughly-equal30h in 216 Ra were observed. Isomers were found in 214 Rn at 1625 keV (T/sub 1/2/ = 9 ns, J/sup π/ = 8 + ), 1787 keV (22 ns, 10 + ), 3485 keV (95 ns, 16), 4509 keV (230 ns, 20), and 4738 keV (8 ns, 22), and in 216 Ra at 1708 keV (8 ns, 8 + ) and 5868 keV (10 ns, approx.24). B(EL) values were deduced and compared to previously known lead-region electric transition rates. Shell-model calculations were performed and used to make configurational assignments. The absence of major α-decay branching in the isomers is explained and the systematic behavior of N = 128 even-even nuclei is discussed

  16. High-spin states in 214Rn, 216Ra and a study of even-even N = 128 systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loennroth, T.; Horn, D.; Baktash, C.; Lister, C.J.; Young, G.R.

    1981-09-01

    High-spin states in 214 Rn and 216 Ra have been studied by means of the reaction 208 Pb( 13 C,α3nγ) 214 Rn and 208 Pb( 13 C,5nγ) 216 Ra at beam energies in the range 75-95 MeV. In-beam spectroscopy techniques, including γ-decay excitation functions, α-γ coincidences, γ-γ coincidences, γ-ray angular distributions and pulsed-beam-γ timing, were utilized to establish level energies, γ-ray multipolarities, JHπ assignments and isomeric lifetimes. Excited states with spins up to 23 h/2π in 214 Rn and 30 h/2π in 216 Ra were established. Isomers are found in 214 Rn at 1625 keV (9 ns, 8 + ), 1787 keV (22 ns, 10 + ), 3485 keV (95 ns, 16 + ), 4509 keV (230 ns, 20 + ) and 4735 keV (8.0 ns, 22 + ) and in 216 Ra at 1710 keV (8 ns, 8 + ) and 5868 keV (10 ns, 24 - ). B(EL) values are derived and compared to previously known lead-region electric transition rates. Shell-model calculations are performed on the basis of which configuration assignment is made. The absence of α-decay branching in the isomers is explained. The systematical behaviour of N = 128 even-even nuclei is discussed. Effective moments of inertia are derived. (author)

  17. Extreme interplanetary rotational discontinuities at 1 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.

    2005-11-01

    This study is concerned with the identification and description of a special subset of four Wind interplanetary rotational discontinuities (from an earlier study of 134 directional discontinuities by Lepping et al. (2003)) with some "extreme" characteristics, in the sense that every case has (1) an almost planar current sheet surface, (2) a very large discontinuity angle (ω), (3) at least moderately strong normal field components (>0.8 nT), and (4) the overall set has a very broad range of transition layer thicknesses, with one being as thick as 50 RE and another at the other extreme being 1.6 RE, most being much thicker than are usually studied. Each example has a well-determined surface normal (n) according to minimum variance analysis and corroborated via time delay checking of the discontinuity with observations at IMP 8 by employing the local surface planarity. From the variance analyses, most of these cases had unusually large ratios of intermediate-to-minimum eigenvalues (λI/λmin), being on average 32 for three cases (with a fourth being much larger), indicating compact current sheet transition zones, another (the fifth) extreme property. For many years there has been a controversy as to the relative distribution of rotational (RDs) to tangential discontinuities (TDs) in the solar wind at 1 AU (and elsewhere, such as between the Sun and Earth), even to the point where some authors have suggested that RDs with large ∣Bn∣s are probably not generated or, if generated, are unstable and therefore very rare. Some of this disagreement apparently has been due to the different selection criteria used, e.g., some allowed eigenvalue ratios (λI/λmin) to be almost an order of magnitude lower than 32 in estimating n, usually introducing unacceptable error in n and therefore also in ∣Bn∣. However, we suggest that RDs may not be so rare at 1 AU, but good quality cases (where ∣Bn∣ confidently exceeds the error in ∣Bn∣) appear to be uncommon, and further

  18. The evens and odds of CMB anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruppuso, A.; Kitazawa, N.; Lattanzi, M.; Mandolesi, N.; Natoli, P.; Sagnotti, A.

    2018-06-01

    The lack of power of large-angle CMB anisotropies is known to increase its statistical significance at higher Galactic latitudes, where a string-inspired pre-inflationary scale Δ can also be detected. Considering the Planck 2015 data, and relying largely on a Bayesian approach, we show that the effect is mostly driven by the even - ℓ harmonic multipoles with ℓ ≲ 20, which appear sizably suppressed in a way that is robust with respect to Galactic masking, along with the corresponding detections of Δ. On the other hand, the first odd - ℓ multipoles are only suppressed at high Galactic latitudes. We investigate this behavior in different sky masks, constraining Δ through even and odd multipoles, and we elaborate on possible implications. We include low- ℓ polarization data which, despite being noise-limited, help in attaining confidence levels of about 3 σ in the detection of Δ. We also show by direct forecasts that a future all-sky E-mode cosmic-variance-limited polarization survey may push the constraining power for Δ beyond 5 σ.

  19. The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

    2017-12-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

  20. Rational Calibration of Four IEC 61400-1 Extreme External Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2008-01-01

    Based on a set of asymptotic statistical models on closed form this paper presents a rational and consistent calibration of four extreme external conditions defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-1 standard: extreme operating gust, extreme wind shear, extreme coheren...... and proposed specifications of the magnitudes of the extreme external wind conditions are highlighted and discussed using an illustrative example based on two selected terrain types. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....... gust with direction change and extreme wind direction change. These four extreme external conditions are used in the definition of six of the IEC 61400-1 ultimate load cases. The statistical models are based on simple and easily accessible mean wind speed and turbulence characteristics...

  1. SPECIFICITY OF SELF-PRESERVATION MOTIVATION IN EXTREME SITUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Anatolevna Karacheva

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of the study motivation of self-preservation in an extreme situation. Usually extreme situation unfold from the point of view of functioning, health, high negative level mental stress and tension. The extreme situation is the situation of human activity to which man acts, carrying out certain activities. The article provides an overview of russian and foreign authors dealing with this problem. Theoretical models of motivation of self-preservation Z. Freud, A. Maslow, G. Murray, M. Magomed-Eminov. The study explores the leading motivation in an extreme situation and analyzed the levels of motivation of self-preservation. The study was conducted in the Afghan veterans, using a method of unfinished sentences and other. Identified two levels of motivation of self-preservation: individual and personal. Revealed that the motivation of self-preservation is the leading motivation in an extreme situation.

  2. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2005-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

  3. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coe, R. G.; Neary, V. S.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y.; Weber, J.

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, NM on May 13th-14th, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. hurricanes and other large storms) and to suggest how U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry.

  4. Constructions of identity through music in extreme-right subcultures

    OpenAIRE

    Stroud, Joseph James Iain

    2014-01-01

    This thesis examines the musical cultures associated with extreme-right politics, considering not only what this music projects about extreme-right ideology, but also the various ways in which music functions as part of a political subculture. This analysis extends beyond the stereotypical extreme-right music associated with the skinhead subculture, often referred to as Oi!, to incorporate extreme-right engagement with genres such as metal, folk, country and classical music. Th...

  5. Extremely Stable Polypyrrole Achieved via Molecular Ordering for Highly Flexible Supercapacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yan; Zhu, Minshen; Pei, Zengxia; Huang, Yang; Geng, Huiyuan; Zhi, Chunyi

    2016-01-27

    The cycling stability of flexible supercapacitors with conducting polymers as electrodes is limited by the structural breakdown arising from repetitive counterion flow during charging/discharging. Supercapacitors made of facilely electropolymerized polypyrrole (e-PPy) have ultrahigh capacitance retentions of more than 97, 91, and 86% after 15000, 50000, and 100000 charging/discharging cycles, respectively, and can sustain more than 230000 charging/discharging cycles with still approximately half of the initial capacitance retained. To the best of our knowledge, such excellent long-term cycling stability was never reported. The fully controllable electropolymerization shows superiority in molecular ordering, favoring uniform stress distribution and charge transfer. Being left at ambient conditions for even 8 months, e-PPy supercapacitors completely retain the good electrochemical performance. The extremely stable supercapacitors with excellent flexibility and scalability hold considerable promise for the commerical application of flexible and wearable electronics.

  6. Liquid Fuel from Heat-Loving Microorganisms: H2-Dependent Conversion of CO2 to Liquid Electrofuels by Extremely Thermophilic Archaea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-07-01

    Electrofuels Project: NC State is working with the University of Georgia to create Electrofuels from primitive organisms called extremophiles that evolved before photosynthetic organisms and live in extreme, hot water environments with temperatures ranging from 167-212 degrees Fahrenheit The team is genetically engineering these microorganisms so they can use hydrogen to turn carbon dioxide directly into alcohol-based fuels. High temperatures are required to distill the biofuels from the water where the organisms live, but the heat-tolerant organisms will continue to thrive even as the biofuels are being distilled—making the fuel-production process more efficient. The microorganisms don’t require light, so they can be grown anywhere—inside a dark reactor or even in an underground facility.

  7. Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, N. W.

    2014-12-01

    Observed "wild" natural fluctuations may differ substantially in their character. Some events may be genuinelyunforeseen (and unforeseeable), as with Taleb's "black swans". These may occur singly, or may have their impactfurther magnified by being "bunched" in time. Some of the others may, however, be the rare extreme events from alight-tailed underlying distribution. Studying their occurrence may then be tractable with the methods of extremevalue theory [e.g. Coles, 2001], suitably adapted to allow correlation if that is observed to be present. Yet others may belong to a third broad class, described in today's presentation [ reviewed in Watkins, GRLFrontiers, 2013, doi: 10.1002/grl.50103]. Such "bursty" time series may show comparatively frequent highamplitude events, and/or long range correlations between successive values. The frequent large values due to thefirst of these effects, modelled in economics by Mandelbrot in 1963 using heavy- tailed probability distributions,can give rise to an "IPCC type I" burst composed of successive wild events. Conversely, long range dependence,even in a light-tailed Gaussian model like Mandelbrot and van Ness' fractional Brownian motion, can integrate"mild" events into an extreme "IPCC type III" burst. I will show how a standard statistical time series model, linear fractional stable motion (LFSM), which de-scends from the two special cases advocated by Mandelbrot, allows these two effects to be varied independently,and will present results from a preliminary study of such bursts in LFSM. The consequences for burst scaling whenlow frequency effects due to dissipation (FARIMA models), and multiplicative cascades (such as multifractals)are included will also be discussed, and the physical assumptions and constraints associated with making a givenchoice of model.

  8. Plasma-assisted cleaning of extreme UV optics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolgov, Alexandr Alexeevich

    2018-01-01

    Plasma-assisted cleaning of extreme UV optics EUV-induced surface plasma chemistry of photo-active agents The next generation of photolithography, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, makes use of 13.5 nm radiation. The ionizing photon flux, and vacuum requirements create a challenging operating

  9. A Faster Algorithm to Recognize Even-Hole-Free Graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Hsien-Chih; Lu, Hsueh-I

    2013-01-01

    We study the problem of determining whether an $n$-node graph $G$ has an even hole, i.e., an induced simple cycle consisting of an even number of nodes. Conforti, Cornu\\'ejols, Kapoor, and Vu\\v{s}kovi\\'c gave the first polynomial-time algorithm for the problem, which runs in $O(n^{40})$ time. Later, Chudnovsky, Kawarabayashi, and Seymour reduced the running time to $O(n^{31})$. The best previously known algorithm for the problem, due to da Silva and Vu\\v{s}kovi\\'c, runs in $O(n^{19})$ time. I...

  10. GoPro-kypäräkameran kuvakulmat extreme-urheiluvideoissa

    OpenAIRE

    Hypén, Anssi

    2013-01-01

    Opinnäytetyössä tutkitaan GoPro-valmistajan kypäräkameran tavallisimpia videoiden kuvakulmia extreme-urheilulajeissa. Kuvakulmia tutkitaan GoPro viralliseen Youtube-videopalveluun ladattujen videoiden kautta, josta on poimittu yleisimpiä kuvakulmia extreme-urheilulajeissa. GoPro-kypäräkamera on alunperin suunniteltu extreme- ja seikkailu-urheiluun, joten opinnäytetyössä tutkitut kuvakulmat on rajattu tarkastelemaan vain extreme-urheilulajeissa käytettyjä kuvakulmia. Extreme-urheiluvideois...

  11. Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I.; Naylor, M.

    2012-05-01

    Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

  12. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  13. Extremal vacuum black holes in higher dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueras, Pau; Lucietti, James; Rangamani, Mukund; Kunduri, Hari K.

    2008-01-01

    We consider extremal black hole solutions to the vacuum Einstein equations in dimensions greater than five. We prove that the near-horizon geometry of any such black hole must possess an SO(2,1) symmetry in a special case where one has an enhanced rotational symmetry group. We construct examples of vacuum near-horizon geometries using the extremal Myers-Perry black holes and boosted Myers-Perry strings. The latter lead to near-horizon geometries of black ring topology, which in odd spacetime dimensions have the correct number of rotational symmetries to describe an asymptotically flat black object. We argue that a subset of these correspond to the near-horizon limit of asymptotically flat extremal black rings. Using this identification we provide a conjecture for the exact 'phase diagram' of extremal vacuum black rings with a connected horizon in odd spacetime dimensions greater than five.

  14. Extreme values, regular variation and point processes

    CERN Document Server

    Resnick, Sidney I

    1987-01-01

    Extremes Values, Regular Variation and Point Processes is a readable and efficient account of the fundamental mathematical and stochastic process techniques needed to study the behavior of extreme values of phenomena based on independent and identically distributed random variables and vectors It presents a coherent treatment of the distributional and sample path fundamental properties of extremes and records It emphasizes the core primacy of three topics necessary for understanding extremes the analytical theory of regularly varying functions; the probabilistic theory of point processes and random measures; and the link to asymptotic distribution approximations provided by the theory of weak convergence of probability measures in metric spaces The book is self-contained and requires an introductory measure-theoretic course in probability as a prerequisite Almost all sections have an extensive list of exercises which extend developments in the text, offer alternate approaches, test mastery and provide for enj...

  15. Extreme learning machines 2013 algorithms and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Toh, Kar-Ann; Romay, Manuel; Mao, Kezhi

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, ELM has emerged as a revolutionary technique of computational intelligence, and has attracted considerable attentions. An extreme learning machine (ELM) is a single layer feed-forward neural network alike learning system, whose connections from the input layer to the hidden layer are randomly generated, while the connections from the hidden layer to the output layer are learned through linear learning methods. The outstanding merits of extreme learning machine (ELM) are its fast learning speed, trivial human intervene and high scalability.   This book contains some selected papers from the International Conference on Extreme Learning Machine 2013, which was held in Beijing China, October 15-17, 2013. This conference aims to bring together the researchers and practitioners of extreme learning machine from a variety of fields including artificial intelligence, biomedical engineering and bioinformatics, system modelling and control, and signal and image processing, to promote research and discu...

  16. Hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Bin; Long Jiang; Zhang Jiaju

    2010-01-01

    We study the hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes. We introduce a new set of conformal coordinates to write the SL(2,R) generators. We find that the Laplacian of the scalar field in many extremal black holes, including Kerr(-Newman), Reissner-Nordstrom, warped AdS 3 , and null warped black holes, could be written in terms of the SL(2,R) quadratic Casimir. This suggests that there exist dual conformal field theory (CFT) descriptions of these black holes. From the conformal coordinates, the temperatures of the dual CFTs could be read directly. For the extremal black hole, the Hawking temperature is vanishing. Correspondingly, only the left (right) temperature of the dual CFT is nonvanishing, and the excitations of the other sector are suppressed. In the probe limit, we compute the scattering amplitudes of the scalar off the extremal black holes and find perfect agreement with the CFT prediction.

  17. Influence of isovector pairing and particle-number projection effects on spectroscopic factors for one-pair like-particle transfer reactions in proton-rich even-even nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbouzid, Y.; Allal, N. H.; Fellah, M.; Oudih, M. R.

    2018-04-01

    Isovector neutron-proton (np) pairing and particle-number fluctuation effects on the spectroscopic factors (SF) corresponding to one-pair like-particle transfer reactions in proton-rich even-even nuclei are studied. With this aim, expressions of the SF corresponding to two-neutron stripping and two-proton pick-up reactions, which take into account the isovector np pairing effect, are established within the generalized BCS approach, using a schematic definition proposed by Chasman. Expressions of the same SF which strictly conserve the particle number are also established within the Sharp-BCS (SBCS) discrete projection method. In both cases, it is shown that these expressions generalize those obtained when only the pairing between like particles is considered. First, the formalism is tested within the Richardson schematic model. Second, it is applied to study even-even proton-rich nuclei using the single-particle energies of a Woods-Saxon mean-field. In both cases, it is shown that the np pairing effect and the particle-number projection effect on the SF values are important, particularly in N = Z nuclei, and must then be taken into account.

  18. 16 CFR 1500.133 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; labeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extremely flammable contact adhesives... REGULATIONS § 1500.133 Extremely flammable contact adhesives; labeling. (a) Extremely flammable contact adhesives, also known as contact bonding cements, when distributed in containers intended or suitable for...

  19. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We inves...

  20. Parsimonious Wavelet Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Qin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a parsimonious scheme for wavelet kernel extreme learning machine (named PWKELM was introduced by combining wavelet theory and a parsimonious algorithm into kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. In the wavelet analysis, bases that were localized in time and frequency to represent various signals effectively were used. Wavelet kernel extreme learning machine (WELM maximized its capability to capture the essential features in “frequency-rich” signals. The proposed parsimonious algorithm also incorporated significant wavelet kernel functions via iteration in virtue of Householder matrix, thus producing a sparse solution that eased the computational burden and improved numerical stability. The experimental results achieved from the synthetic dataset and a gas furnace instance demonstrated that the proposed PWKELM is efficient and feasible in terms of improving generalization accuracy and real time performance.

  1. Hypothyroid-induced acute compartment syndrome in all extremities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musielak, Matthew C; Chae, Jung Hee

    2016-12-20

    Acute compartment syndrome (ACS) is an uncommon complication of uncontrolled hypothyroidism. If unrecognized, this can lead to ischemia, necrosis and potential limb loss. A 49-year-old female presented with the sudden onset of bilateral lower and upper extremity swelling and pain. The lower extremity anterior compartments were painful and tense. The extensor surface of the upper extremities exhibited swelling and pain. Motor function was intact, however, limited due to pain. Bilateral lower extremity fasciotomies were performed. Postoperative Day 1, upper extremity motor function decreased significantly and paresthesias occurred. She therefore underwent bilateral forearm fasciotomies. The pathogenesis of hypothyroidism-induced compartment syndrome is unclear. Thyroid-stimulating hormone-induced fibroblast activation results in increased glycosaminoglycan deposition. The primary glycosaminoglycan in hypothyroid myxedematous changes is hyaluronic acid, which binds water causing edema. This increases vascular permeability, extravasation of proteins and impaired lymphatic drainage. These contribute to increased intra-compartmental pressure and subsequent ACS. Published by Oxford University Press and JSCR Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016.

  2. Extremal edges: a powerful cue to depth perception and figure-ground organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Stephen E; Ghose, Tandra

    2008-01-01

    Extremal edges (EEs) are projections of viewpoint-specific horizons of self-occlusion on smooth convex surfaces. An ecological analysis of viewpoint constraints suggests that an EE surface is likely to be closer to the observer than the non-EE surface on the other side of the edge. In two experiments, one using shading gradients and the other using texture gradients, we demonstrated that EEs operate as strong cues to relative depth perception and figure-ground organization. Image regions with an EE along the shared border were overwhelmingly perceived as closer than either flat or equally convex surfaces without an EE along that border. A further demonstration suggests that EEs are more powerful than classical figure-ground cues, including even the joint effects of small size, convexity, and surroundedness.

  3. Representation learning with deep extreme learning machines for efficient image set classification

    KAUST Repository

    Uzair, Muhammad

    2016-12-09

    Efficient and accurate representation of a collection of images, that belong to the same class, is a major research challenge for practical image set classification. Existing methods either make prior assumptions about the data structure, or perform heavy computations to learn structure from the data itself. In this paper, we propose an efficient image set representation that does not make any prior assumptions about the structure of the underlying data. We learn the nonlinear structure of image sets with deep extreme learning machines that are very efficient and generalize well even on a limited number of training samples. Extensive experiments on a broad range of public datasets for image set classification show that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms state-of-the-art image set classification methods both in terms of speed and accuracy.

  4. Representation learning with deep extreme learning machines for efficient image set classification

    KAUST Repository

    Uzair, Muhammad; Shafait, Faisal; Ghanem, Bernard; Mian, Ajmal

    2016-01-01

    Efficient and accurate representation of a collection of images, that belong to the same class, is a major research challenge for practical image set classification. Existing methods either make prior assumptions about the data structure, or perform heavy computations to learn structure from the data itself. In this paper, we propose an efficient image set representation that does not make any prior assumptions about the structure of the underlying data. We learn the nonlinear structure of image sets with deep extreme learning machines that are very efficient and generalize well even on a limited number of training samples. Extensive experiments on a broad range of public datasets for image set classification show that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms state-of-the-art image set classification methods both in terms of speed and accuracy.

  5. “Malaysia-China Friendship Evening 2009”Held

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Our Staff Reporter

    2009-01-01

    <正>The CPAFFC, the Embassy of Malaysia in China, the Malaysia-China Friendship Association and the Malaysia-China Business Council jointly hosted the "Malaysia-China Friendship Evening 2009"at the Conference Hall of the Chi-

  6. Current concepts in repair of extremity venous injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Timothy K; Clouse, W Darrin

    2016-04-01

    Extremity venous injury management remains controversial. The purpose of this communication is to offer perspective as well as experiential and technical insight into extremity venous injury repair. Available literature is reviewed and discussed. Historical context is provided. Indication, the decision process for repair, including technical conduct, is delineated. In particular, the authors' experiences in both civilian and wartime injury are used for perspective. Extremity venous injury repair was championed within data from the Vietnam Vascular Registry. However, patterns of extremity venous injury differ between combat and civilian settings. Since Vietnam, civilian descriptive series opine the benefits and potential complications associated with both venous injury repair and ligation. These surround extremity edema, chronic venous insufficiency, thromboembolism, and limb loss. Whereas no clear superiority in either approach has been identified to date, there appears to be no increased risk of pulmonary embolism or chronic venous changes with repair. Newer data from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and meta-analysis have reinforced this and also have suggested limb salvage benefit for extremity venous repair in combined arterial and venous injuries in modern settings. The patient's physiologic state and associated injury drive five triage categories suggesting vein injury management. Vein repair thrombosis occurs in a significant proportion, yet many recanalize and possibly have a positive impact on limb venous return. Further, early decompression favors reduced blood loss, acute edema, and inflammation, supporting collateral development. Large soft tissue injury minimizing collateral capacity increases the importance of repair. Constructs of repair are varied with modest differences in patency. Venous shunting is feasible, but specific roles remain nebulous. An aggressive posture toward extremity venous injury repair seems justified today because of the likely

  7. Attribution of climate extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2015-08-01

    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  8. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K.; Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L.

    2009-06-01

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  9. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  10. Extreme Radiation Hardness and Space Qualification of AlGaN Optoelectronic Devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ke-Xun; MacNeil, Lawrence; Balakrishnan, Kathik; Hultgren, Eric; Goebel, John; Bilenko, Yuri; Yang, Jinwei; Sun, Wenhong; Shatalov, Max; Hu, Xuhong; Gaska, Remis

    2010-01-01

    Unprecedented radiation hardness and environment robustness are required in the new generation of high energy density physics (HEDP) experiments and deep space exploration. National Ignition Facility (NIF) break-even shots will have a neutron yield of 10 15 or higher. The Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM) mission instruments will be irradiated with a total fluence of 10 12 protons/cm 2 during the space journey. In addition, large temperature variations and mechanical shocks are expected in these applications under extreme conditions. Hefty radiation and thermal shields are required for Si and GaAs based electronics and optoelectronics devices. However, for direct illumination and imaging applications, shielding is not a viable option. It is an urgent task to search for new semiconductor technologies and to develop radiation hard and environmentally robust optoelectronic devices. We will report on our latest systematic experimental studies on radiation hardness and space qualifications of AlGaN optoelectronic devices: Deep UV Light Emitting Diodes (DUV LEDs) and solarblind UV Photodiodes (PDs). For custom designed AlGaN DUV LEDs with a central emission wavelength of 255 nm, we have demonstrated its extreme radiation hardness up to 2 x 10 12 protons/cm 2 with 63.9 MeV proton beams. We have demonstrated an operation lifetime of over 26,000 hours in a nitrogen rich environment, and 23,000 hours of operation in vacuum without significant power drop and spectral shift. The DUV LEDs with multiple packaging styles have passed stringent space qualifications with 14 g random vibrations, and 21 cycles of 100K temperature cycles. The driving voltage, current, emission spectra and optical power (V-I-P) operation characteristics exhibited no significant changes after the space environmental tests. The DUV LEDs will be used for photoelectric charge management in space flights. For custom designed AlGaN UV photodiodes with a central response wavelength of 255 nm, we have

  11. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  12. Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

    2005-07-01

    Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

  13. The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa, Diogo Ricardo; Hansen, Matheus; Guarise, Gustavo; Medrano-T, Rene O.; Leonel, Edson D.

    2016-04-01

    We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems.

  14. Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Bright Source List

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malina, Roger F.; Marshall, Herman L.; Antia, Behram; Christian, Carol A.; Dobson, Carl A.; Finley, David S.; Fruscione, Antonella; Girouard, Forrest R.; Hawkins, Isabel; Jelinsky, Patrick

    1994-01-01

    Initial results from the analysis of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) all-sky survey (58-740 A) and deep survey (67-364 A) are presented through the EUVE Bright Source List (BSL). The BSL contains 356 confirmed extreme ultraviolet (EUV) point sources with supporting information, including positions, observed EUV count rates, and the identification of possible optical counterparts. One-hundred twenty-six sources have been detected longward of 200 A.

  15. Plant volatiles in extreme terrestrial and marine environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Steinke, Michael; McGenity, Terry; Loreto, Francesco

    2014-08-01

    This review summarizes the current understanding on plant and algal volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission in extreme environments, where temperature, water availability, salinity or other environmental factors pose stress on vegetation. Here, the extreme environments include terrestrial systems, such as arctic tundra, deserts, CO₂ springs and wetlands, and marine systems such as sea ice, tidal rock pools and hypersaline environments, with mangroves and salt marshes at the land-sea interface. The emission potentials at fixed temperature and light level or actual emission rates for phototrophs in extreme environments are frequently higher than for organisms from less stressful environments. For example, plants from the arctic tundra appear to have higher emission potentials for isoprenoids than temperate species, and hypersaline marine habitats contribute to global dimethyl sulphide (DMS) emissions in significant amounts. DMS emissions are more widespread than previously considered, for example, in salt marshes and some desert plants. The reason for widespread VOC, especially isoprenoid, emissions from different extreme environments deserves further attention, as these compounds may have important roles in stress resistance and adaptation to extremes. Climate warming is likely to significantly increase VOC emissions from extreme environments both by direct effects on VOC production and volatility, and indirectly by altering the composition of the vegetation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Validity of single term energy expression for ground state rotational band of even-even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, S.; Kumar, R.; Gupta, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: There are large numbers of empirical studies of gs band of even-even nuclei in various mass regions. The Bohr-Mottelson's energy expression is E(I) = AX + BX 2 +CX 3 +... where X = I(I+1). The anharmonic vibrator energy expression is: E(I) = al + bl 2 + cl 3 SF model with energy expression: E(I)= pX + qI + rXI... where the terms represents the rotational, vibrational and R-V interaction energy, respectively. The validity f the various energy expressions with two terms had been tested by Sharma for light, medium and heavy mass regions using R I s. R 4 plots (where, spin I=6, 8, 10, 12), which are parameter independent. It was also noted, that of the goodness of energy expression can be judged with the minimum input of energies (i.e. only 2 parameters) and predictability's of the model p to high spins. Recently, Gupta et. al proposed a single term energy expression (SSTE) which was applied for rare earth region. This proposed power law reflected the unity of rotation - vibration in a different way and was successful in explaining the structure of gs-band. It will be useful for test the single term energy expression for light and heavy mass region. The single term expression for energy of ground state band can be written as: E I =axI b , where the index b and the coefficient a are the constant for the band. The values of b+1 and a 1 are as follows: b 1 =log(R 1 )/log(I/2) and a 1 =E I /I b ... The following results were gained: 1) The sharp variation in the value of index b at given spin will be an indication of the change in the shape of the nucleus; 2) The value of E I /I b is fairly constant with spin below back-bending, which reflects the stability of shape with spin; 3) This proposed power law is successful in explaining the structure of gs-band of nuclei

  17. Economic Growth and the Rise of Political Extremism

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Bruckner; Hans Peter Gruner

    2011-01-01

    In many western democracies, political parties with extreme platforms challenge more moderate incumbents. This paper analyses the impact of economic growth on the support for extreme political platforms. We provide a theoretical argument in favor of growth effects (as opposed to level effects) on the support for extreme political parties and we empirically investigate the relationship between growth and extremist votes. Lower growth rates benefit right-wing and nationalist parties, but do not...

  18. Quasi-phase-matching of only even-order high harmonics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diskin, Tzvi; Cohen, Oren

    2014-03-24

    High harmonic spectrum of a quasi-monochromatic pump that interacts with isotropic media consists of only odd-order harmonics. Addition of a secondary pump, e.g. a static field or the second harmonic of the primary pump, can results with generation of both odd and even harmonics of the primary pump. We propose a method for quasi-phase matching of only the even-order harmonics of the primary pump. We formulate a theory for this process and demonstrate it numerically. We also show that it leads to attosecond pulse trains with constant carrier envelop phase and high repetition rate.

  19. Implications of extreme flatness in a general f(R theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Artymowski

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We discuss a modified gravity theory defined by f(R=∑nlαnM2(1−nRn. We consider both finite and infinite number of terms in the series while requiring that the Einstein frame potential of the theory has a flat area around any of its stationary points. We show that the requirement of maximally flat stationary point leads to the existence of the saddle point (local maximum for even (odd l. In both cases for l→∞ one obtains the Starobinsky model with small, exponentially suppressed corrections. Besides the GR minimum the Einstein frame potential has an anti de Sitter vacuum. However we argue that the GR vacuum is absolutely stable and AdS can be reached neither via classical evolution nor via quantum tunnelling. Our results show that a Starobinsky-like model is the only possible realisation of f(R theory with an extremely flat area in the Einstein frame potential.

  20. CO2-Philic polymer membrane with extremely high separation performance

    KAUST Repository

    Yave, Wilfredo

    2010-01-12

    Polymeric membranes are attractive for CO2 separation and concentration from different gas streams because of their versatility and energy efficiency; they can compete with, and they may even replace, traditional absorption processes. Here we describe a simple and powerful method for developing nanostructured and CO2-philic polymer membranes for CO2 separation. A poly(ethylene oxide)-poly(butylene terephthalate) multiblock copolymer is used as membrane material. Smart additives such as polyethylene glycol dibutyl ether are incorporated as spacers or fillers for producing nanostructured materials. The addition of these specific additives produces CO2-philic membranes and increases the CO2 permeability (750 barrer) up to five-fold without the loss of selectivity. The membranes present outstanding performance for CO2 separation, and the measured CO2 flux is extremely high ( > 2 m3 m -2 h-1 bar-1) with selectivity over H2 and N2 of 10 and 40, respectively, making them attractive for CO 2 capture. © 2009 American Chemical Society.

  1. CO2-Philic polymer membrane with extremely high separation performance

    KAUST Repository

    Yave, Wilfredo; Car, Anja; Funari, S.; Nunes, Suzana Pereira; Peinemann, Klaus-Viktor

    2010-01-01

    Polymeric membranes are attractive for CO2 separation and concentration from different gas streams because of their versatility and energy efficiency; they can compete with, and they may even replace, traditional absorption processes. Here we describe a simple and powerful method for developing nanostructured and CO2-philic polymer membranes for CO2 separation. A poly(ethylene oxide)-poly(butylene terephthalate) multiblock copolymer is used as membrane material. Smart additives such as polyethylene glycol dibutyl ether are incorporated as spacers or fillers for producing nanostructured materials. The addition of these specific additives produces CO2-philic membranes and increases the CO2 permeability (750 barrer) up to five-fold without the loss of selectivity. The membranes present outstanding performance for CO2 separation, and the measured CO2 flux is extremely high ( > 2 m3 m -2 h-1 bar-1) with selectivity over H2 and N2 of 10 and 40, respectively, making them attractive for CO 2 capture. © 2009 American Chemical Society.

  2. Automation Rover for Extreme Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauder, Jonathan; Hilgemann, Evan; Johnson, Michael; Parness, Aaron; Hall, Jeffrey; Kawata, Jessie; Stack, Kathryn

    2017-01-01

    Almost 2,300 years ago the ancient Greeks built the Antikythera automaton. This purely mechanical computer accurately predicted past and future astronomical events long before electronics existed1. Automata have been credibly used for hundreds of years as computers, art pieces, and clocks. However, in the past several decades automata have become less popular as the capabilities of electronics increased, leaving them an unexplored solution for robotic spacecraft. The Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments (AREE) proposes an exciting paradigm shift from electronics to a fully mechanical system, enabling longitudinal exploration of the most extreme environments within the solar system.

  3. A break-even analysis of major ear surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasson, J D; Phillips, J S

    2015-10-01

    To determine variables which affect cost and profit for major ear surgery and perform a break-even analysis. Retrospective financial analysis. UK teaching hospital. Patients who underwent major ear surgery under general anaesthesia performed by the senior author in main theatre over a 2-year period between dates of 07 September 2010 and 07 September 2012. Income, cost and profit for each major ear patient spell. Variables that affect major ear surgery profitability. Seventy-six patients met inclusion criteria. Wide variation in earnings, with a median net loss of £-1345.50 was observed. Income was relatively uniform across all patient spells; however, theatre time of major ear surgery at a cost of £953.24 per hour varied between patients and was the main determinant of cost and profit for the patient spell. Bivariate linear regression of earnings on theatre time identified 94% of variation in earnings was due to variation in theatre time (r = -0.969; P break-even time for major ear surgery of 110.6 min. Theatre time was dependent on complexity of procedure and number of OPCS4 procedures performed, with a significant increase in theatre time when three or more procedures were performed during major ear surgery (P = 0.015). For major ear surgery to either break-even or return a profit, total theatre time should not exceed 110 min and 36 s. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Giant monopole resonance in even-A Cd isotopes, the asymmetry term in nuclear incompressibility, and the 'softness' of Sn and Cd nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patel, D. [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (United States); Garg, U., E-mail: garg@nd.edu [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (United States); Fujiwara, M. [Research Center for Nuclear Physics, Osaka University, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan); Akimune, H. [Department of Physics, Konan University, Kobe 568-8501 (Japan); Berg, G.P.A. [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (United States); Harakeh, M.N. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, 9747 AA Groningen (Netherlands); Itoh, M. [Cyclotron and Radioisotope Center, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Kawabata, T. [Center for Nuclear Studies, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Kawase, K. [Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research, Osaka University, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan); Nayak, B.K. [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (United States); Ohta, T. [Research Center for Nuclear Physics, Osaka University, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan); Ouchi, H. [Cyclotron and Radioisotope Center, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Piekarewicz, J. [Department of Physics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 (United States); Uchida, M. [Department of Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8850 (Japan); Yoshida, H.P. [Cyclotron and Radioisotope Center, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Yosoi, M. [Research Center for Nuclear Physics, Osaka University, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan)

    2012-12-05

    The isoscalar giant monopole resonance (ISGMR) in even-A Cd isotopes has been studied by inelastic {alpha}-scattering at 100 MeV/u and at extremely forward angles, including 0 Degree-Sign . The asymmetry term in the nuclear incompressibility extracted from the ISGMR in Cd isotopes is found to be K{sub {tau}}=-555{+-}75 MeV, confirming the value previously obtained from the Sn isotopes. ISGMR strength has been computed in relativistic RPA using NL3 and FSUGold effective interactions. Both models significantly overestimate the centroids of the ISGMR strength in the Cd isotopes. Combined with other recent theoretical effort, the question of the 'softness' of the open-shell nuclei in the tin region remains open still.

  5. The Determination of Neutron-Induced Reaction Cross Section Data on Even-Even, Magic- Number Nuclide Chromium 52 Using EXIFON Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonah, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    The EXIFON code version 2.0 is a calculational tool, which is based on both many-body theory and random matrix physics. In this work, it has been used to calculate neutron induced reaction cross section data from 0 to 20 MeV on an even-even, magic number nuclide 52 Cr with neutron number, N=28. Specifically, the (n,p), (n,α) and (n,2n) reaction cross section data were calculated as functions of incident energy of neutrons. Data obtained from the experimental data in the IAEA, EXFOR data Library and recommended data libraries around the globe, JENDL, ENDF and JEFF were used to validate the calculated data. The data indicate that the calculated data without shell corrections are in good agreement with experimental data as well as the recommended data from the evaluated data libraries. The calculated results could provide useful insight into the choice of some input parameters near closed shells using the EXIFON code.

  6. Reduced electric-octupole transition probabilities, B(E3;O1+ → 31-), for even-even nuclides throughout the periodic table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spear, R.H.

    1988-11-01

    Adopted values for the excitation energy, E x( 3 1 - ), of the first 3 - state of the even-even nuclei are tabulated. Values of the reduced electric-octupole transition probability, B(E3;O 1 + → 3 1 - ), from the ground state to this state, as determined from Coulomb excitation, lifetime measurements, inelastic electron scattering, deformation parameters β 3 obtained from angular distributions of inelastically scattered nucleons and light ions, and other miscellaneous procedures are listed in separate Tables. Adopted values for B(E3; O 1 + → 3 1 - ) are presented in Table VII, together with the E3 transition strengths, in Weisskopf units, and the product E x( 3 1 - ) x B(E3; O 1 + → 3 1 - - ) expressed as a percentage of the energy-weighted E3 sum-rule strength. An evaluation is made of the reliability of B(E3; O 1 + → 3 1 - ) values deduced from deformation parameters β 3 . The literature has been covered to March 1988

  7. Dual Axis Controller for Extreme Environments, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Dual Axis Controller for Extreme Environments (DACEE) addresses a critical need of NASA's future exploration plans to investigate extreme environments within our...

  8. Calculations of the Low-Lying Structures in the Even-Even Nd/Sm/Gd/Dy Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Su Youn; Lee, J. H.; Lee, Young Jun

    2018-05-01

    The nuclear structure of deformed nuclei has been studied using the interacting boson model (IBM). In this study, energy levels and E2 transition probabilities were determined for even nuclei in the Nd/Sm/Gd/Dy chains which have a transition characteristic between the rotational, SU(3) and vibrational, U(5) limits. The structure of the nuclei exhibits a slight breaking of the SU(3) symmetry in the direction of U(5), and therefore, we add the d-boson number operator n d , which is the main term of the U(5) symmetric Hamiltonian, to the SU(3) Hamiltonian of the IBM. The calculated results for low-lying energy levels and E2 transition rates in Nd/Sm/Gd/Dy isotopes are in reasonably good agreement with known experimental results.

  9. Calculation of neutron fluence-to-dose conversion factors for extremities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, R.D.; Harty, R.; McDonald, J.C.; Tanner, J.E.

    1993-04-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is developing a standard for the performance testing of personnel extremity dosimeters for the US Department of Energy. Part of this effort requires the calculation of neutron fluence-to-dose conversion factors for finger and wrist extremities. This study focuses on conversion factors for two types of extremity models: namely the polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) phantom (as specified in the draft standard for performance testing of extremity dosimeters) and more realistic extremity models composed of tissue-and-bone. Calculations for each type of model are based on both bare and D 2 O-moderated 252 Cf sources. The results are then tabulated and compared with whole-body conversion factors. More appropriate energy-averaged quality factors for the extremity models have also been computed from the neutron fluence in 50 equally spaced energy bins with energies from 2.53 x 10 -8 to 15 MeV. Tabulated results show that conversion factors for both types of extremity phantom are 15 to 30% lower than the corresponcung whole-body phantom conversion factors for 252 Cf neutron sources. This difference in extremity and whole-body conversion factors is attributable to the proportionally smaller amount of back-scattering that occurs in the extremity phantoms compared with whole-body phantoms

  10. Estimating the Break-Even Price for Forest Protection in Central Kalimantan

    OpenAIRE

    Yamamoto, Yuki; Takeuchi, Kenji

    2011-01-01

    This paper estimates the break-even price in Central Kalimantan province, Indonesia and evaluates the effectiveness of a REDD+ mechanism in this area. On the basis of data collected through a field survey, we found that the break-even price is $17.14 per ton of carbon or $4.68 per ton of carbon dioxide. The figure can be even lower when we take the peat thickness of the area into account. Our analysis shows that the current level of carbon price can provide adequate compensation for Indonesia...

  11. Acute lower extremity ischaemia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Acute lower extremity ischaemia. Acute lower limb ischaemia is a surgical emergency. ... is ~1.5 cases per 10 000 persons per year. Acute ischaemia ... Table 2. Clinical features discriminating embolic from thrombotic ALEXI. Clinical features.

  12. Vertical structure of extreme currents in the Faroe-Bank Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Carollo

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme currents are studied with the aim of understanding their vertical and spatial structures in the Faroe-Bank Channel. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler time series recorded in 3 deployments in this channel were investigated. To understand the main features of extreme events, the measurements were separated into their components through filtering and tidal analysis before applying the extreme value theory to the surge component. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were used to study the variation of surge extremes from near-surface to deep waters. It was found that this component alone is not able to explain the extremes measured in total currents, particularly below 500 m. Here the mean residual flow enhanced by tidal rectification was found to be the component feature dominating extremes. Therefore, it must be taken into consideration when applying the extreme value theory, not to underestimate the return level for total currents. Return value speeds up to 250 cm s–1 for 50/250 years return period were found for deep waters, where the flow is constrained by the topography at bearings near 300/330° It is also found that the UK Meteorological Office FOAM model is unable to reproduce either the magnitude or the form for the extremes, perhaps due to its coarse vertical and horizontal resolution, and is thus not suitable to model extremes on a regional scale. Keywords. Oceanography: Physical (Currents; General circulation; General or miscellaneous

  13. Online transfer learning with extreme learning machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Haibo; Yang, Yun-an

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, we propose a new transfer learning algorithm for online training. The proposed algorithm, which is called Online Transfer Extreme Learning Machine (OTELM), is based on Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OSELM) while it introduces Semi-Supervised Extreme Learning Machine (SSELM) to transfer knowledge from the source to the target domain. With the manifold regularization, SSELM picks out instances from the source domain that are less relevant to those in the target domain to initialize the online training, so as to improve the classification performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed OTELM can effectively use instances in the source domain to enhance the learning performance.

  14. Upper-extremity phocomelia reexamined: a longitudinal dysplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb, Charles A; Manske, Paul R; Busa, Riccardo; Mills, Janith; Carter, Peter; Ezaki, Marybeth

    2005-12-01

    In contrast to longitudinal deficiencies, phocomelia is considered a transverse, intercalated segmental dysplasia. Most patients demonstrate severe, but not otherwise classifiable, upper-extremity deformities, which usually cannot be placed into one of three previously described phocomelia groups. Additionally, these phocomelic extremities do not demonstrate true segmental deficits; the limb is also abnormal proximal and distal to the segmental defect. The purpose of this investigation was to present evidence that upper-extremity abnormalities in patients previously diagnosed as having phocomelia in fact represent a proximal continuum of radial or ulnar longitudinal dysplasia. The charts and radiographs of forty-one patients (sixty extremities) diagnosed as having upper-extremity phocomelia were reviewed retrospectively. On the basis of the findings on the radiographs, the disorders were categorized into three groups: (1) proximal radial longitudinal dysplasia, which was characterized by an absent proximal part of the humerus, a nearly normal distal part of the humerus, a completely absent radius, and a radial-sided hand dysplasia; (2) proximal ulnar longitudinal dysplasia, characterized by a short one-bone upper extremity that bifurcated distally and by severe hand abnormalities compatible with ulnar dysplasia; and (3) severe combined dysplasia, with type A characterized by an absence of the forearm segment (i.e., the radius and ulna) and type B characterized by absence of the arm and forearm (i.e., the hand attached to the thorax). Twenty-nine limbs in sixteen patients could be classified as having proximal radial longitudinal dysplasia. Systemic medical conditions such as thrombocytopenia-absent radius syndrome were common in those patients, but additional musculoskeletal conditions were rare. Twenty limbs in seventeen patients could be classified as having proximal ulnar longitudinal dysplasia. Associated musculoskeletal abnormalities, such as proximal femoral

  15. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  16. Injuries in an Extreme Conditioning Program

    OpenAIRE

    Aune, Kyle T.; Powers, Joseph M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Extreme conditioning programs (ECPs) are fitness training regimens relying on aerobic, plyometric, and resistance training exercises, often with high levels of intensity for a short duration of time. These programs have grown rapidly in popularity in recent years, but science describing the safety profile of these programs is lacking. Hypothesis: The rate of injury in the extreme conditioning program is greater than the injury rate of weightlifting and the majority of injuries occ...

  17. Quantum information with even and odd states of orbital angular momentum of light

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perumangatt, Chithrabhanu, E-mail: chithrabhanu@prl.res.in [Physical Research laboratory, Navarangpura, Ahmedabad, 380009 (India); Lal, Nijil [Physical Research laboratory, Navarangpura, Ahmedabad, 380009 (India); IIT Gandhinagar, Palaj, Ahmedabad, 382355 (India); Anwar, Ali [Physical Research laboratory, Navarangpura, Ahmedabad, 380009 (India); Gangi Reddy, Salla [University of Electro-communications, Chofu, Tokyo, 1828585 (Japan); Singh, R.P. [Physical Research laboratory, Navarangpura, Ahmedabad, 380009 (India)

    2017-06-15

    We address the possibility of using even/odd states of orbital angular momentum (OAM) of photons for the quantum information tasks. Single photon qubit states and two photon entangled states in even/odd basis of OAM are considered. We present a method for the tomography and general projective measurement in even/odd basis. With the general projective measurement, we show the Bell violation and quantum cryptography with Bell's inequality. We also describe hyper and hybrid entanglement of even/odd OAM states along with polarization, which can be applied in the implementation of quantum protocols like super dense coding. - Highlights: • We propose to use even and odd states of orbital angular momentum (OAM) of light for quantum information tasks. • We describe the OAM qubits and entangled states in even/odd basis and the corresponding projective operators. • We present a method for the tomography and the Bell's inequality violation for photons entangled in even/odd OAM states. • We also describe hyper and hybrid entanglement of even/odd OAM states along with polarization and their applications.

  18. The even and the odd spectral flows on the N=2 superconformal algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gato-Rivera, B.

    1998-01-01

    There are two different spectral flows on the N=2 superconformal algebras (four in the case of the topological algebra). The usual spectral flow, first considered by Schwimmer and Seiberg, is an even transformation, whereas the spectral flow previously considered by the author and Rosado is an odd transformation. We show that the even spectral flow is generated by the odd spectral flow, and therefore only the latter is fundamental. We also analyze thoroughly the four ''topological'' spectral flows, writing two of them here for the first time. Whereas the even and the odd spectral flows have quasi-mirrored properties acting on the antiperiodic or the periodic algebras, the topological even and odd spectral flows have drastically different properties acting on the topological algebra. The other two topological spectral flows have mixed even and odd properties. We show that the even and the even-odd topological spectral flows are generated by the odd and the odd-even topological spectral flows, and therefore only the latter are fundamental. (orig.)

  19. Covered Interest-Rate Parity Revisited: an Extreme Value Copula Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikel Ugando-Peñate

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article studied the covered interest-rate parity (CIP condition under extreme market movements using extreme value theory and extreme value copulas to characterize dependence between extreme interest rate differentials and forward premium. The empirical analysis for the CIP between interest rates for the US dollar and the British pound indicates that there is strong co-movement between interest rate differentials and forward premium at different maturities and in both upper and lower tails. This conclusion would support the existence of the CIP condition under extreme market movements.

  20. Measures of serial extremal dependence and their estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Richard A.; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2013-01-01

    extremal dependence is typically characterized by clusters of exceedances of high thresholds in the series. We start by discussing the notion of extremal index of a univariate sequence, i.e. the reciprocal of the expected cluster size, which has attracted major attention in the extremal value literature...... has attracted attention for modeling and statistical purposes. We apply the extremogram to max-stable processes. Finally, we discuss estimation of the extremogram both in the time and frequency domains....

  1. Break-even analysis of the enterprise at one product level

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela Ghicajanu; Manuel-Viorel Semen

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents some significant aspects regarding the break-even analysis of an economic organization. The analysis will consider a case study for a company which produces a certain production volume, considering a certain value of its sales and determining its Break-Even Point, under two possible hypotheses: the first case by only operating with a normal profit, and the second one by considering a requested profit (opportunity cost) of 3%.

  2. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-20

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  3. Area spectra of near extremal black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Deyou; Yang, Haitang; Zu, Xiaotao

    2010-01-01

    Motivated by Maggiore's new interpretation of quasinormal modes, we investigate area spectra of a near extremal Schwarzschild-de Sitter black hole and a higher-dimensional near extremal Reissner-Nordstrom-de Sitter black hole. The result shows that the area spectra are equally spaced and irrelevant to the parameters of the black holes. (orig.)

  4. Predictability of Extreme Precipitations Over the Conterminous us, 1949-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, M.; Felzer, B. S.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme precipitation plays an important role in regulating ecosystem services. Precipitation extremes vary in magnitude and duration both spatially and temporally, making it one of the most challenging climate variables to comprehend and predict. Using information theory, we provide an attempt to improve understanding of the predictability of extreme precipitation in the conterminous U.S. over the period of 1949-2010. We define predictability as the recurrent likelihood of patterns described by the measures of constancy and contingency, with the former describing the inter-annual variability and the latter describing the seasonality. This study shows that there are clear west-east contrasts of predictability over the U.S. landscape, with a generally decreasing gradient from the Northeast to the Southwest for intensity-based extremes and a generally increasing gradient from the West to the East for duration-based extremes. We further identify spatially heterogeneous patterns of temporal changes in predictability over the investigated timeframe. Finally, it is evident that constancy plays a heavier role in regulating predictability increases for both intensity and duration-based extremes and for predictability decreases for duration-based extremes, while contingency contributes equally with constancy to determining the decreases in predictability for intensity-based extremes.

  5. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  6. Atmospheric boundary layer evening transitions over West Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    A systemic analysis of the atmospheric boundary layer behavior during some evening transitions over West Texas was done using the data from an extensive array of instruments which included small and large aperture scintillometers, net radiometers, and meteorological stations. The analysis also comp...

  7. Identification of extreme motor phenotypes in Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braisch, Ulrike; Hay, Birgit; Muche, Rainer; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Landwehrmeyer, G Bernhard; Long, Jeffrey D; Orth, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The manifestation of motor signs in Huntington's disease (HD) has a well-known inverse relationship with HTT CAG repeat length, but the prediction is far from perfect. The probability of finding disease modifiers is enhanced in individuals with extreme HD phenotypes. We aimed to identify extreme HD motor phenotypes conditional on CAG and age, such as patients with very early or very late onset of motor manifestation. Retrospective data were available from 1,218 healthy controls and 9,743 HD participants with CAG repeats ≥40, and a total of about 30,000 visits. Boundaries (2.5% and 97.5% quantiles) for extreme motor phenotypes (UHDRS total motor score (TMS) and motor age-at-onset) were estimated using quantile regression for longitudinal data. More than 15% of HD participants had an extreme TMS phenotype for at least one visit. In contrast, only about 4% of participants were consistent TMS extremes at two or more visits. Data from healthy controls revealed an upper cut-off of 13 for the TMS representing the extreme of motor ratings for a normal aging population. In HD, boundaries of motor age-at-onset based on diagnostic confidence or derived from the TMS data cut-off in controls were similar. In summary, a UHDRS TMS of more than 13 in an individual carrying the HD mutation indicates a high likelihood of motor manifestations of HD irrespective of CAG repeat length or age. The identification of motor phenotype extremes can be useful in the search for disease modifiers, for example, genetic or environmental such as medication. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Breaking the glass ceiling: Configurational entropy measurements in extremely supercooled liquids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthier, Ludovic

    Liquids relax extremely slowly on approaching the glass state. One explanation is that an entropy crisis, due to the rarefaction of available states, makes it increasingly arduous to reach equilibrium in that regime. Validating this scenario is challenging, because experiments offer limited resolution, while numerical studies lag more than eight orders of magnitude behind experimentally-relevant timescales. In this work we not only close the colossal gap between experiments and simulations but manage to create in-silico configurations that have no experimental analog yet. Deploying a range of computational tools, we obtain four independent estimates of their configurational entropy. These measurements consistently indicate that the steep entropy decrease observed in experiments is found in simulations even beyond the experimental glass transition. Our numerical results thus open a new observational window into the physics of glasses and reinforce the relevance of an entropy crisis for understanding their formation.

  9. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-01-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  10. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  11. Meteorological and hydrological extremes derived from taxation records: case study for south-western Moravia (Czech Republic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, Hubert; Zahradníček, Pavel

    2013-04-01

    Meteorological and hydrological extremes (MHEs) cause great material damage or even loss of human lives in the present time, similarly as it was in the past. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. Therefore, in order to create long-term series of such extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information. Different types of documentary evidence are used in historical climatology and hydrology to find such information. Some of them are related to records connected with taxation system. The taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crops have been damaged by MHEs. The corresponding documents contain information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence; often also impacts on crops or land may be derived. The nature of events leading to damage include particularly hailstorms, torrential rain, flash floods, floods (in regions along larger rivers), less frequently windstorms, late frosts and in some cases also information about droughts or extreme snow depths. However, the results obtained are influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records - their temporal and spatial incompleteness, limitation of the MHEs occurrence in the period of main agricultural work (May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about MHEs was of secondary importance). All these aspects related to the study of MHEs from taxation records are demonstrated for five estates (Bítov, Budkov, Jemnice with Staré Hobzí, Nové Syrovice and Uherčice) in the south-western part of Moravia for the 18th-19th centuries. The analysis shows importance of taxation records for the study of past MHEs as well as great potential for their use.

  12. Apparatus Producing an Even Distribution of Strain into Carries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrabovský, Leopold

    2017-10-01

    In many high-rise residential buildings or multi-storey warehouses, machinery, so called lifts, is used for the vertical transportation of people or weights between two or more altitudinally distant places. Carriers used for lifts are steel ropes or sprocket chains, on which a cage or a counterbalance is hinged. Apparatus of all carriers, attached to the hinge of the cage or counterbalance, should be even. This can be made only by hammer hinge. Fixed or springe hinge cannot be a perfect equalizing apparatus. This article describes an apparatus, which allows an even distribution of the strain into lift carriers, which use springe hinge of carrier ropes.

  13. [Ultrasound examination for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyota, Kosaku

    2014-09-01

    Surgery is known to be a major risk factor of vein thrombosis. Progression from lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) to pulmonary embolism can lead to catastrophic outcome, although the incidence ratio is low. The ability to rule in or rule out DVT is becoming essential for anesthesiologists. Non-invasive technique of ultrasonography is a sensitive and specific tool for the assessment of lower extremity DVT. This article introduces the basics and practical methods of ultrasound examination for lower extremity DVT.

  14. Vertical structure of extreme currents in the Faroe-Bank Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Carollo

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme currents are studied with the aim of understanding their vertical and spatial structures in the Faroe-Bank Channel. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler time series recorded in 3 deployments in this channel were investigated. To understand the main features of extreme events, the measurements were separated into their components through filtering and tidal analysis before applying the extreme value theory to the surge component. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were used to study the variation of surge extremes from near-surface to deep waters. It was found that this component alone is not able to explain the extremes measured in total currents, particularly below 500 m. Here the mean residual flow enhanced by tidal rectification was found to be the component feature dominating extremes. Therefore, it must be taken into consideration when applying the extreme value theory, not to underestimate the return level for total currents. Return value speeds up to 250 cm s–1 for 50/250 years return period were found for deep waters, where the flow is constrained by the topography at bearings near 300/330° It is also found that the UK Meteorological Office FOAM model is unable to reproduce either the magnitude or the form for the extremes, perhaps due to its coarse vertical and horizontal resolution, and is thus not suitable to model extremes on a regional scale.

    Keywords. Oceanography: Physical (Currents; General circulation; General or miscellaneous

  15. Risk Factors for Lower-Extremity Injuries Among Contemporary Dance Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Seters, Christine; van Rijn, Rogier M; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Stubbe, Janine H

    2017-10-10

    To determine whether student characteristics, lower-extremity kinematics, and strength are risk factors for sustaining lower-extremity injuries in preprofessional contemporary dancers. Prospective cohort study. Codarts University of the Arts. Forty-five first-year students of Bachelor Dance and Bachelor Dance Teacher. At the beginning of the academic year, the injury history (only lower-extremity) and student characteristics (age, sex, educational program) were assessed using a questionnaire. Besides, lower-extremity kinematics [single-leg squat (SLS)], strength (countermovement jump) and height and weight (body mass index) were measured during a physical performance test. Substantial lower-extremity injuries during the academic year were defined as any problems leading to moderate or severe reductions in training volume or in performance, or complete inability to participate in dance at least once during follow-up as measured with the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center (OSTRC) Questionnaire on Health Problems. Injuries were recorded on a monthly basis using a questionnaire. Analyses on leg-level were performed using generalized estimating equations to test the associations between substantial lower-extremity injuries and potential risk factors. The 1-year incidence of lower-extremity injuries was 82.2%. Of these, 51.4% was a substantial lower-extremity injury. Multivariate analyses identified that ankle dorsiflexion during the SLS (OR 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.52) was a risk factor for a substantial lower-extremity injury. The findings indicate that contemporary dance students are at high risk for lower-extremity injuries. Therefore, the identified risk factor (ankle dorsiflexion) should be considered for prevention purposes.

  16. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  17. Preconditioned iterations to calculate extreme eigenvalues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brand, C.W.; Petrova, S. [Institut fuer Angewandte Mathematik, Leoben (Austria)

    1994-12-31

    Common iterative algorithms to calculate a few extreme eigenvalues of a large, sparse matrix are Lanczos methods or power iterations. They converge at a rate proportional to the separation of the extreme eigenvalues from the rest of the spectrum. Appropriate preconditioning improves the separation of the eigenvalues. Davidson`s method and its generalizations exploit this fact. The authors examine a preconditioned iteration that resembles a truncated version of Davidson`s method with a different preconditioning strategy.

  18. Deformation properties of even-even Os, Pt, Hg nuclei and spectroscopic properties of odd Re, Os, Ir, Pt, Au, Hg nuclei from self-consistent calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Desthuilliers-Porquet, M G; Quentin, P; Sauvage-Letessier, J

    1981-01-01

    Static properties of even-even Os, Pt, Hg nuclei have been obtained from HF+BCS calculations. Single-particle wave functions which come from these self-consistent calculations have been used to calculate some spectroscopic properties of odd Re, Os, Ir, Pt, Au, and Hg nuclei, within the rotor-quasiparticle coupling model. The authors' calculations are able to give a good description of most of available experimental data. (12 refs).

  19. Charged-Current Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering off the Even Molybdenum Isotopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ydrefors

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutrinos from supernovae constitute important probes of both the currently unknown supernova mechanisms and of neutrino properties. Reliable information about the nuclear responses to supernova neutrinos is therefore crucial. In this work, we compute the cross sections for the charged-current neutrino-nucleus scattering off the even-even molybdenum isotopes. The nuclear responses to supernova neutrinos are subsequently calculated by folding the cross sections with a Fermi-Dirac distribution.

  20. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.

  1. Mediatized Extreme Right Activism and Discourse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Rikke Alberg

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a case study of the German neo-fascist network The Immortals (Die Unsterblichen) who in 2011 performed a flash-mob disseminated on YouTube for the so- called ‘Become Immortal’ campaign. The street protest was designed for and adapted to the specific characteristics of online...... activism. It is a good example of how new contentious action repertoires in which online and street activism intertwine have also spread to extreme right groups. Despite its neo-fascist and extreme right content the ‘Become Immortal’ campaign serves as an illustrative case for the study of mediated...... and mediatized activism. In order to analyse of the protest form, the visual aesthetics and the discourse of ‘The Immortals’, the paper mobilises two concepts from media and communication studies: mediation and mediatization. It will be argued that that the current transformation of the extreme right: that is...

  2. Extremal vectors and rectifiability | Enflo | Quaestiones Mathematicae

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Extremal vectors and rectifiability. ... The concept of extremal vectors of a linear operator with a dense range but not onto on a Hilbert space was introduced by P. Enflo in 1996 as a new approach to study invariant subspaces ... We show that in general curves that map numbers to backward minimal vectors are not rectifiable.

  3. Extreme project. Progress report 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyrolle, F.; Masson, O.; Charmasson, S.

    2007-01-01

    The E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project introduced in 2005 to the S.E.S.U.R.E. / L.E.R.C.M. has for objectives to acquire data on the consequences of the extreme climatic meteorological episodes on the distribution of the artificial radioisotopes within the various compartments of the geosphere. This report presents the synthesis of the actions developed in 2006 in positioning and in co financing of the project by means of regional or national research programs (C.A.R.M.A., E.X.T.R.E.M.A., E.C.C.O.R.E.V.I.), of data acquisition, valuation and scientific collaboration. (N.C.)

  4. Anders Breivik: Extreme Beliefs Mistaken for Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Tahir; Resnick, Phillip J; Harry, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    The case of Anders Breivik, who committed mass murder in Norway in 2011, stirred controversy among forensic mental health experts. His bizarrely composed compendium and references to himself as the "Knights Templar" raised concerns that he had a psychotic mental illness. Beliefs such as Mr. Breivik's that precede odd, unusual, or extremely violent behavior present a unique challenge to the forensic evaluator, who sometimes struggles to understand those beliefs. Psychotic disorder frequently is invoked to characterize odd, unusual, or extreme beliefs, with a classification that has evolved over time. However, the important concept of overvalued idea, largely ignored in American psychiatry, may better characterize these beliefs in some cases. We discuss the definitions of delusion and overvalued ideas in the context of Anders Breivik's rigidly held extreme beliefs. We also review the British definition of overvalued idea and discuss McHugh's construct, to introduce the term "extreme overvalued belief" as an aid in sharpening the forensic evaluator's conceptualization of these and similar beliefs. © 2016 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

  5. Signature effects in 2qp bands of doubly even rare-earth nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalra, Kawalpreet [Amity University, AUUP, Department of Physics, Amity Institute of Applied Sciences (AIAS), Noida (India); Goel, Alpana [Amity University, AUUP, Amity Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (AINST), Noida (India); Jain, A.K. [Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Department of Physics, Roorkee (India)

    2016-12-15

    The two-quasiparticle rotational bands in deformed doubly even nuclei in the rare-earth region have been studied in detail. A number of interesting features like odd-even staggering and signature inversion have been observed. The phenomenon of signature inversion/reversal is observed experimentally in {sup 162}{sub 66}Dy, {sup 170}{sub 70}Yb and {sup 170}{sub 74}W in even-even nuclei. Two quasiparticle plus rotor model (TQPRM) calculations are carried out to explain the reverse pattern of signature in {sup 170}{sub 74}W for the rotational band having configuration {(h_1_1_/_2)_p x (d_5_/_2)_p}. (orig.)

  6. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  7. Distant Galaxy Clusters Hosting Extreme Central Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The recently-discovered Phoenix cluster harbors the most star-forming central cluster galaxy of any cluster in the known Universe, by nearly a factor of 10. This extreme system appears to be fulfilling early cooling flow predictions, although the lack of similar systems makes any interpretation difficult. In an attempt to find other "Phoenix-like" clusters, we have cross-correlated archival all-sky surveys (in which Phoenix was detected) and isolated 4 similarly-extreme systems which are also coincident in position and redshift with an overdensity of red galaxies. We propose here to obtain Chandra observations of these extreme, Phoenix-like systems, in order to confirm them as relaxed, rapidly-cooling galaxy clusters.

  8. PRELIMINARY BIOGEOCHEMICAL DATA ON MICROBIAL CARBONATOGENESIS IN ANCIENT EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS (KESS-KESS MOUNDS, MOROCCO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADRIANO GUIDO

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Devonian Kess-Kess mounds, cropping out in the Hamar Laghdad Ridge (SE Morocco, provide a useful case-study for understanding the relationships between the microbial metabolic activities and micrite precipitation in an extreme environment. Very fine dark and white wrinkled laminae record microbial activity and the geochemistry of the organic matter allows the  characterization of the source organisms. The biogeochemical characterization of extracted organic matter was performed through the functional group analyses by FT-IR Spectroscopy. FT-IR parameters indicate a marine origin and low thermal evolution for the organic material. The organic matter is characterized by the presence of stretching ?C=C vibrations attributable to alkene and/or unsaturated carboxylic acids. Preliminary analysis with GC-MS provides evidence for an autochthonous (even over odd C number predominance is attributable to bacteria and/or algae and they are similar to those recorded in recent (Black Sea and ancient (Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous methane-seep microbialites. These biogeochemical signatures of microbial carbonate precipitation in an ancient extreme environment may have implications in astrobiological research considering the recent discovery of carbonate deposits on Mars. 

  9. Tibiopedal access for lower extremity arterial intervention: when to use and how to perform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiechmann, Bret N

    2014-09-01

    Tibiopedal artery access is being used with increasing frequency as an alternative access to facilitate procedural success in lower extremity arterial intervention. This technique is usually employed in the setting of critical limb ischemia and tibial artery intervention, but it may offer potential practical advantages for popliteal artery and even superficial femoral artery intervention in unique situations. As in all cases of lower extremity arterial intervention, consideration of access is important not only for initial approach to any obstructing lesion but also for exit strategy. The dorsalis pedis artery and posterior tibial artery can be readily accessed if necessary owing to their relatively superficial position in the foot or the ankle, yet their normal diameter and the presence of significant calcification (a common finding in patients with tibial occlusive disease and critical limb ischemia) can pose difficulties as well. In addition, the peroneal artery in the lower leg can be accessed percutaneously; however, its size and depth may present additional challenges. Meticulous attention to detail is paramount in avoiding complications in what may be the only distal vessel supplying the foot. This article describes common techniques in using tibiopedal artery access as a means of alternative access for successful infrainguinal intervention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Toxicity at the Edge of Life: A Review on Cyanobacterial Toxins from Extreme Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirés, Samuel; Casero, María Cristina; Quesada, Antonio

    2017-07-24

    Cyanotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by cyanobacteria, of varied chemical nature and toxic effects. Although cyanobacteria thrive in all kinds of ecosystems on Earth even under very harsh conditions, current knowledge on cyanotoxin distribution is almost restricted to freshwaters from temperate latitudes. In this review, we bring to the forefront the presence of cyanotoxins in extreme environments. Cyanotoxins have been reported especially in polar deserts (both from the Arctic and Antarctica) and alkaline lakes, but also in hot deserts, hypersaline environments, and hot springs. Cyanotoxins detected in these ecosystems include neurotoxins-anatoxin-a, anatoxin-a (S), paralytic shellfish toxins, β-methylaminopropionic acid, N -(2-aminoethyl) glycine and 2,4-diaminobutyric acid- and hepatotoxins -cylindrospermopsins, microcystins and nodularins-with microcystins being the most frequently reported. Toxin production there has been linked to at least eleven cyanobacterial genera yet only three of these ( Arthrospira , Synechococcus and Oscillatoria ) have been confirmed as producers in culture. Beyond a comprehensive analysis of cyanotoxin presence in each of the extreme environments, this review also identifies the main knowledge gaps to overcome (e.g., scarcity of isolates and -omics data, among others) toward an initial assessment of ecological and human health risks in these amazing ecosystems developing at the very edge of life.

  11. Roentgenological findings in muscular alterations of extremities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palvoelgyi, R.

    1978-01-01

    A survey of roentgenological findings in muscular alterations of extremities based on the author's experiences and on the literature is presented. Following a description of the normal roentgen anatomy, the alterations in different diseases of interstitial lipomatosis are demonstrated. By roentgenological examinations differt muscular lesions of the extremities can be differentiated and the clinical follow-up verified. (orig.) [de

  12. Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Vettori, Sabrina

    2017-12-07

    The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

  13. Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2018-03-01

    Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

  14. Using Discrete Event Simulation for Programming Model Exploration at Extreme-Scale: Macroscale Components for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilke, Jeremiah J [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Kenny, Joseph P. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Discrete event simulation provides a powerful mechanism for designing and testing new extreme- scale programming models for high-performance computing. Rather than debug, run, and wait for results on an actual system, design can first iterate through a simulator. This is particularly useful when test beds cannot be used, i.e. to explore hardware or scales that do not yet exist or are inaccessible. Here we detail the macroscale components of the structural simulation toolkit (SST). Instead of depending on trace replay or state machines, the simulator is architected to execute real code on real software stacks. Our particular user-space threading framework allows massive scales to be simulated even on small clusters. The link between the discrete event core and the threading framework allows interesting performance metrics like call graphs to be collected from a simulated run. Performance analysis via simulation can thus become an important phase in extreme-scale programming model and runtime system design via the SST macroscale components.

  15. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  16. Fermionic symmetries: Extension of the two to one relationship between the spectra of even-even and neighboring odd mass nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamick, L.; Devi, Y.D.

    1999-01-01

    In the single j shell there is a two to one relationship between the spectra of certain even-even and neighboring odd mass nuclei; e.g., the calculated energy levels of J=0 + states in 44 Ti are at twice the energies of corresponding levels in 43 Ti( 43 Sc) with J=j=7/2. Here an approximate extension of the relationship is made by adopting a truncated seniority scheme; i.e., for 46 Ti and 45 Sc we get the relationship if we do not allow the seniority v=4 states to mix with the v=0 and v=2 states. Better than that, we get very close to the two to one relationship if seniority v=4 states are admixed perturbatively. In addition, it is shown that for the J=0 T=3 state in 46 Ti and for the J=j T=5/2 state in 45 Sc (i.e., the states of higher isospin) there are no admixtures in which the neutrons have seniority 4. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society

  17. Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger nonlocality in arbitrary even dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jinhyoung; Lee, Seung-Woo; Kim, M. S.

    2006-01-01

    We generalize Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) nonlocality to every even-dimensional and odd-partite system. For the purpose we employ concurrent observables that are incompatible and nevertheless have a common eigenstate. It is remarkable that a tripartite system can exhibit the genuinely high-dimensional GHZ nonlocality

  18. Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

  19. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  20. Gravo-Aeroelastic Scaling for Extreme-Scale Wind Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fingersh, Lee J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Loth, Eric [University of Virginia; Kaminski, Meghan [University of Virginia; Qin, Chao [University of Virginia; Griffith, D. Todd [Sandia National Laboratories

    2017-06-09

    A scaling methodology is described in the present paper for extreme-scale wind turbines (rated at 10 MW or more) that allow their sub-scale turbines to capture their key blade dynamics and aeroelastic deflections. For extreme-scale turbines, such deflections and dynamics can be substantial and are primarily driven by centrifugal, thrust and gravity forces as well as the net torque. Each of these are in turn a function of various wind conditions, including turbulence levels that cause shear, veer, and gust loads. The 13.2 MW rated SNL100-03 rotor design, having a blade length of 100-meters, is herein scaled to the CART3 wind turbine at NREL using 25% geometric scaling and blade mass and wind speed scaled by gravo-aeroelastic constraints. In order to mimic the ultralight structure on the advanced concept extreme-scale design the scaling results indicate that the gravo-aeroelastically scaled blades for the CART3 are be three times lighter and 25% longer than the current CART3 blades. A benefit of this scaling approach is that the scaled wind speeds needed for testing are reduced (in this case by a factor of two), allowing testing under extreme gust conditions to be much more easily achieved. Most importantly, this scaling approach can investigate extreme-scale concepts including dynamic behaviors and aeroelastic deflections (including flutter) at an extremely small fraction of the full-scale cost.

  1. Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

    2010-05-01

    As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961

  2. Extensive phylogenetic analysis of a soil bacterial community illustrates extreme taxon evenness and the effects of amplicon length, degree of coverage, and DNA fractionation on classification and ecological parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Sergio E; Cosart, Theodore F; Johnson, Jesse V; Holben, William E

    2009-02-01

    To thoroughly investigate the bacterial community diversity present in a single composite sample from an agricultural soil and to examine potential biases resulting from data acquisition and analytical approaches, we examined the effects of percent G+C DNA fractionation, sequence length, and degree of coverage of bacterial diversity on several commonly used ecological parameters (species estimation, diversity indices, and evenness). We also examined variation in phylogenetic placement based on multiple commonly used approaches (ARB alignments and multiple RDP tools). The results demonstrate that this soil bacterial community is highly diverse, with 1,714 operational taxonomic units demonstrated and 3,555 estimated (based on the Chao1 richness estimation) at 97% sequence similarity using the 16S rRNA gene. The results also demonstrate a fundamental lack of dominance (i.e., a high degree of evenness), with 82% of phylotypes being encountered three times or less. The data also indicate that generally accepted cutoff values for phylum-level taxonomic classification might not be as applicable or as general as previously assumed and that such values likely vary between prokaryotic phyla or groups.

  3. Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thromboses: The Bowler and the Barista

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth Stake

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Effort thrombosis of the upper extremity refers to a deep venous thrombosis of the upper extremity resulting from repetitive activity of the upper limb. Most cases of effort thrombosis occur in young elite athletes with strenuous upper extremity activity. This article reports two cases who both developed upper extremity deep vein thromboses, the first being a 67-year-old bowler and the second a 25-year-old barista, and illustrates that effort thrombosis should be included in the differential diagnosis in any patient with symptoms concerning DVT associated with repetitive activity. A literature review explores the recommended therapies for upper extremity deep vein thromboses.

  4. Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thromboses: The Bowler and the Barista.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stake, Seth; du Breuil, Anne L; Close, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    Effort thrombosis of the upper extremity refers to a deep venous thrombosis of the upper extremity resulting from repetitive activity of the upper limb. Most cases of effort thrombosis occur in young elite athletes with strenuous upper extremity activity. This article reports two cases who both developed upper extremity deep vein thromboses, the first being a 67-year-old bowler and the second a 25-year-old barista, and illustrates that effort thrombosis should be included in the differential diagnosis in any patient with symptoms concerning DVT associated with repetitive activity. A literature review explores the recommended therapies for upper extremity deep vein thromboses.

  5. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingcai Li

    Full Text Available Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382. The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  6. Computational discovery of extremal microstructure families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Desai; Skouras, Mélina; Zhu, Bo; Matusik, Wojciech

    2018-01-01

    Modern fabrication techniques, such as additive manufacturing, can be used to create materials with complex custom internal structures. These engineered materials exhibit a much broader range of bulk properties than their base materials and are typically referred to as metamaterials or microstructures. Although metamaterials with extraordinary properties have many applications, designing them is very difficult and is generally done by hand. We propose a computational approach to discover families of microstructures with extremal macroscale properties automatically. Using efficient simulation and sampling techniques, we compute the space of mechanical properties covered by physically realizable microstructures. Our system then clusters microstructures with common topologies into families. Parameterized templates are eventually extracted from families to generate new microstructure designs. We demonstrate these capabilities on the computational design of mechanical metamaterials and present five auxetic microstructure families with extremal elastic material properties. Our study opens the way for the completely automated discovery of extremal microstructures across multiple domains of physics, including applications reliant on thermal, electrical, and magnetic properties. PMID:29376124

  7. Structure of personality and motivation of extreme sports athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Mahnič

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research was to define the eventual differences between personal and motivational structure among extreme sports athletes and non-athletes. Beside personal and motivational structure of both mentioned groups, we also examined state and trait anxiety as significant factors of success. We used a medium lengthy version of FPI inventory, Costell's questionnaire of achievement motivation and Spielberg's questionnaire STAI – X1 and STAI – X2. The pattern included 66 extreme sports athletes. We concluded that extreme sports athletes are significantly less suppressed and sincere, whereas they are more extrovert and masculine in comparison with the group of non-athletes. A trend that individuals, who reach for extreme sports, are more sociable, and less neurotic is pointed out, but it is not of significant importance. We found out that there is also a tendency that extreme sports athletes express more positive achievement motivation than non-athletes, who on the other hand express significantly higher negative achievement motivation. The analysis of anxiety differences on the other hand showed that extreme sports athletes have significantly lower state of anxiety and the anxiety itself as atrait is far less visible, but the difference did not appear as significant. The results however did not confirme previous studies' findings. Nevertheless they serve as a contribution to some earlier findings and suggest that extreme sports athletes are a special group, which differs from non-athlete population in both personal and motivational structure and relatively well suits to the profile of a top athlete. At the same time, the present research offers a possibility of shaping an extreme sports athlete's profile.

  8. Dosimetric characteristics of a TLD dosemeter with extremities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina P, D.; Diaz B, E.; Lien V, R.

    1999-01-01

    It was designed a TLD dosemeter for the monitoring of the extremities. This one consists in a metallic ring with a circular orifice where is arranged a T L detector of LiF: Mg,Ti (Model JR1152C) 5 x 5 x 0.8 mm 3 covered by a polyethylene fine layer. In this work were studied the dosimetric properties of the dosemeter for its application in the dosimetry of extremities for photonic radiation. the results obtained allow conclude that the designed dosemeter can be used for the extremities monitoring. (Author)

  9. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

    2018-02-01

    Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

  10. Preservation of Lipid Biomarkers Under Prolonged and Extreme Hyperaridity in Atacama Desert Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, M. B.; Davila, A. F.; Eigenbrode, J. L.; Parenteau, M. N.; Jahnke, L. L.; Summons, R. E.; Liu, X.; Wray, J. J.; Stamos, B.; O'Reilly, S. S.; Williams, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    preservation even in the oldest soils analyzed (ca. 2 Myr) indicating that typical diagenetic processes of lipid destruction are arrested under extreme dryness. This result has implications for the search for molecular biomarkers on Mars, which could have experienced millions to billions of years of extreme hyperaridity.

  11. Preservation of Lipid Biomarkers Under Prolonged and Extreme Hyperaridity in Atacama Desert Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    lipid biomarker preservation even in the oldest soils analyzed (ca. 2 Myr) indicating that typical diagenetic processes of lipid destruction are arrested under extreme dryness. This result has implications for the search for molecular biomarkers on Mars, which could have experienced millions to billions of years of extreme hyperaridity.

  12. Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

    2017-04-01

    Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

  13. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-01-01

    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  14. Statistics of Local Extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Bierbooms, W.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2003-01-01

    . A theoretical expression for the probability density function associated with local extremes of a stochasticprocess is presented. The expression is basically based on the lower four statistical moments and a bandwidth parameter. The theoretical expression is subsequently verified by comparison with simulated...

  15. Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study: Karoon River, Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

    2018-03-01

    An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic effects were detected in different land cover types within the 155-km-long study reach. The results show that the flood significantly affected the channel width and the main effect was high mobilization of channel sediments and severe bank erosion in the meandering reaches. According to field surveys, the flood occupied the channel corridor and even the floodplain parts. However, the channel pattern was not significantly altered, although the results show that the average channel width increased from 192 to 256 m. Statistical results indicate a significant change for active channel width and sinuosity index at 99% confidence level for both indexes. The flood-induced morphological changes varied significantly for different land cover types along the Karoon River. Specifically, the channel has widened less in residential areas than in other land cover types because of the occurrence of bank protection structures. However, the value of bank retreat in residential and protected sides of the Karoon River is more than what we expected during the study of extreme flood.

  16. The Extreme Right in Eastern Europe and Territorial Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslav Mareš

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses and compares the different territorial conceptions of the extreme right in Eastern Europe and their political impact, with a view to explaining how important the historical legacy of the supposed territorial and border claims and injustices is for the identity of the extreme right (or their parts in contemporary Eastern Europe. It analyses the historical roots of the territorial claims of the extreme right in the area, the current situation regarding their territorial claims and disputes, and the impact of these territorial claims on domestic politics, on the politics of the extreme right at the European level and on regional security in this area.

  17. High-spin states in 214Rn, 216Ra and a study of even-even N=128 systematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lönnroth, T.; Horn, D.; Baktash, C.; Lister, C. J.; Young, G. R.

    1983-01-01

    High-spin states in 214Rn and 216Ra have been studied by means of the reaction 208Pb(13C, α 3n γ)214Rn and 208Pb(13C, 5n γ)216Ra at beam energies in the range 75-95 MeV. In-beam spectroscopy techniques, including γ-decay excitation functions, α-γ coincidences, γ-γ coincidences, γ-ray angular distributions, and pulsed-beam-γ timing, were utilized to establish level energies, γ-ray multipolarities, Jπ assignments, and isomeric lifetimes. Excited states with spins up to 23ℏ in 214Rn and ~30ℏ in 216Ra were observed. Isomers were found in 214Rn at 1625 keV (T12=9 ns, Jπ=8+), 1787 keV (22 ns, 10+), 3485 keV (95 ns, 16), 4509 keV (230 ns, 20), and 4738 keV (8 ns, 22), and in 216Ra at 1708 keV (8 ns, 8+) and 5868 keV (10 ns, ~24). B(EL) values were deduced and compared to previously known lead-region electric transition rates. Shell-model calculations were performed and used to make configurational assignments. The absence of major α-decay branching in the isomers is explained and the systematic behavior of N=128 even-even nuclei is discussed. NUCLEAR STRUCTURE 208Pb(13C, α 3n γ)214Rn, 208Pb(13C, 5n γ) 216Ra, Elab=75-95 MeV. Measured α-γ coin, γ-γ(t) coin, I(θ), pulsed-beam-γ timing. Deduced level schemes, Jπ, T12, B(EL), multipolarities. Shell model calculations, Ge(Li) and Si detectors, enriched target.

  18. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  19. Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity - acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wabitsch, Martin; Moss, Anja; Reinehr, Thomas; Wiegand, Susanna; Kiess, Wieland; Scherag, André; Holl, Reinhard; Holle, Rolf; Hebebrand, Johannes

    2013-08-29

    Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity have increased in German children and adolescents in the last three decades. Adolescents with extreme obesity represent a distinct risk group. On the basis of data obtained by the German Child and Youth Survey (KiGGS) and the German district military offices we estimate that the group of extremely obese adolescents (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) currently encompasses approximately 200.000 adolescents aged 14 to 21 yrs. Conventional approaches focusing on weight reduction have largely proven futile for them. In addition, only a small percentage of adolescents with extreme obesity seek actively treatment for obesity while contributing disproportionately strong to health care costs. Because of somatic and psychiatric co-morbidities and social problems adolescents with extreme obesity require special attention within the medical care system. We have initiated the project "Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescents with extreme obesity--acceptance and effects of structured care, short: 'Youths with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)'", which aims at improving the medical care and social support structures for youths with extreme obesity in Germany. We focus on identification of these subjects (baseline examination) and their acceptance of diagnostic and subsequent treatment procedures. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) we will investigate the effectiveness of a low key group intervention not focusing on weight loss but aimed at the provision of obesity related information, alleviation of social isolation, school and vocational integration and improvement of self-esteem in comparison to a control group treated in a conventional way with focus on weight loss. Interested individuals who fulfill current recommended criteria for weight loss surgery will be provided with a structured preparation and follow-up programs. All subjects will be monitored within a long-term observational study to elucidate medical and psychosocial outcomes

  20. Base Oil-Extreme Pressure Additive Synergy in Lubricants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme pressure (EP) additives are those containing reactive elements such as sulfur, phosphorus, and chlorine. In lubrication processes that occur under extremely severe conditions (e.g., high pressure and/or slow speed), these elements undergo chemical reactions generating new materials (tribofi...