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Sample records for evaluation risk classification

  1. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  3. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  4. Feelings of nurses in the reception and risk classification evaluation in the emergency room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa Midori Sakai

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to reveal feelings of nurses who host with risk assessment and classification in an emergency room of a pubic hospital. Methods: it is a qualitative research approach with 12 nurses interviewed. The data were analyzed, categorized and discussed according to the theoretical framework of work psychodynamics. Results: the nurses expressed feelings of satisfaction in meeting the user needs assistance. They reported feeling as fear, stress and fatigue due to the sharp pace of work, gaps in health care network and situations of violence. They highlighted coping strategies to reduce the burden of this assignment, how to share the completion of the screening with the nursing staff. Conclusion: the host with risk assessment and classification favors the autonomy of nurses and provide greater accountability to this professional users, but the limitations of available resources to solve the complaint of patients generate physical and psychological burden to this worker.

  5. Feelings of nurses in the reception and risk classification evaluation in the emergency room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa Midori Sakai

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to reveal feelings of nurses who host with risk assessment and classification in an emergency room of a pubic hospital. Methods: it is a qualitative research approach with 12 nurses interviewed. The data were analyzed, categorized and discussed according to the theoretical framework of work psychodynamics. Results: the nurses expressed feelings of satisfaction in meeting the user needs assistance. They reported feeling as fear, stress and fatigue due to the sharp pace of work, gaps in health care network and situations of violence. They highlighted coping strategies to reduce the burden of this assignment, how to share the completion of the screening with the nursing staff. Conclusion: the host with risk assessment and classification favors the autonomy of nurses and provide greater accountability to this professional users, but the limitations of available resources to solve the complaint of patients generate physical and psychological burden to this worker.

  6. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  7. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. III: Evaluation using a panel of reference foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of four functional components of a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods in a concordance study. Two independent raters assigned concern levels to 20 reference GM foods using a rating form based on the proposed RBCS. The four components of evaluation were: (1) degree of concordance, (2) distribution across concern levels, (3) discriminating ability of the scheme, and (4) ease of use. At least one of the 20 reference foods was assigned to each of the possible concern levels, demonstrating the ability of the scheme to identify GM foods of different concern with respect to potential health risk. There was reasonably good concordance between the two raters for the three separate parts of the RBCS. The raters agreed that the criteria in the scheme were sufficiently clear in discriminating reference foods into different concern levels, and that with some experience, the scheme was reasonably easy to use. Specific issues and suggestions for improvements identified in the concordance study are discussed.

  8. Comparing complete and partial classification for identifying customers at risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemer, J.M.M.; Brijs, T.; Swinnen, S.P.; Vanhoof, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper evaluates complete versus partial classification for the problem of identifying customers at risk. We define customers at risk as customers reporting overall satisfaction, but these customers also possess characteristics that are strongly associated with dissatisfied customers. This

  9. Risk factors and classifications of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Munoz, Miguel Angel; Fernandez-Aguilar, Jose Luis; Sanchez-Perez, Belinda; Perez-Daga, Jose Antonio; Garcia-Albiach, Beatriz; Pulido-Roa, Ysabel; Marin-Camero, Naiara; Santoyo-Santoyo, Julio

    2013-07-15

    Cholangiocarcinoma is the second most common primary malignant tumor of the liver. Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma or Klatskin tumor represents more than 50% of all biliary tract cholangiocarcinomas. A wide range of risk factors have been identified among patients with Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma including advanced age, male gender, primary sclerosing cholangitis, choledochal cysts, cholelithiasis, cholecystitis, parasitic infection (Opisthorchis viverrini and Clonorchis sinensis), inflammatory bowel disease, alcoholic cirrhosis, nonalcoholic cirrhosis, chronic pancreatitis and metabolic syndrome. Various classifications have been used to describe the pathologic and radiologic appearance of cholangiocarcinoma. The three systems most commonly used to evaluate Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma are the Bismuth-Corlette (BC) system, the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and the TNM classification. The BC classification provides preoperative assessment of local spread. The Memorial Sloan-Kettering cancer center proposes a staging system according to three factors related to local tumor extent: the location and extent of bile duct involvement, the presence or absence of portal venous invasion, and the presence or absence of hepatic lobar atrophy. The TNM classification, besides the usual descriptors, tumor, node and metastases, provides additional information concerning the possibility for the residual tumor (R) and the histological grade (G). Recently, in 2011, a new consensus classification for the Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma had been published. The consensus was organised by the European Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association which identified the need for a new staging system for this type of tumors. The classification includes information concerning biliary or vascular (portal or arterial) involvement, lymph node status or metastases, but also other essential aspects related to the surgical risk, such as remnant hepatic volume or the possibility of underlying disease.

  10. Feasibility of using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health Core Set for evaluation of fall-related risk factors in acute rehabilitation settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shih W; Lin, Li F; Chou, Lin C; Wu, Mei J; Liao, Chun D; Liou, Tsan H

    2016-04-01

    Previously, we reported the use of an International Classification of Functioning (ICF) core set that can provide a holistic framework for evaluating the risk factors of falls; however, data on the feasibility of applying this core set are lacking. To investigate the feasibility of applying the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set in the case of patients in an acute-rehabilitation setting. A cross-sectional and descriptive correlational design. Acute-rehabilitation ward. A total of 273 patients who experienced fall at acute-rehabilitation ward. The data on falls were collected from the hospital's Nursing Information System (NIS) and the fall-reporting system (Adverse Event Reporting System, AERS) between 2010 and 2013. The relationship of both systems to the fall-related ICF core set was analyzed to assess the feasibility of their clinical application. We evaluated the feasibility of using the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set by using the frequency and the percentage of the fall patients in of the listed categories. The fall-related ICF risk-factor core set category b735 (muscle tone functions) exhibited a high feasibility (85.95%) for clinical application, and the category b730 (muscle power functions) covered 77.11% of the patients. The feasibility of application of the category d410 (change basic body position) was also high in the case of all fall patients (81.69%). In the acute-rehabilitation setting, the feasibility of application of the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set is high. The fall-related ICF risk-factor core set can help multidisciplinary teams develop fall-prevention strategies in acute rehabilitation wards.

  11. Critical Evaluation of Headache Classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özge, Aynur

    2013-08-01

    Transforming a subjective sense like headache into an objective state and establishing a common language for this complaint which can be both a symptom and a disease all by itself have kept the investigators busy for years. Each recommendation proposed has brought along a set of patients who do not meet the criteria. While almost the most ideal and most comprehensive classification studies continued at this point, this time criticisims about withdrawing from daily practice came to the fore. In this article, the classification adventure of scientists who work in the area of headache will be summarized. More specifically, 2 classifications made by the International Headache Society (IHS) and the point reached in relation with the 3rd classification which is still being worked on will be discussed together with headache subtypes. It has been presented with the wish and belief that it will contribute to the readers and young investigators who are interested in this subject.

  12. Critical Evaluation of Headache Classifications

    OpenAIRE

    ?ZGE, Aynur

    2013-01-01

    Transforming a subjective sense like headache into an objective state and establishing a common language for this complaint which can be both a symptom and a disease all by itself have kept the investigators busy for years. Each recommendation proposed has brought along a set of patients who do not meet the criteria. While almost the most ideal and most comprehensive classification studies continued at this point, this time criticisims about withdrawing from daily practice came to the fore. I...

  13. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  14. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  15. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  16. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  17. The daily risk of bacteremia during hospitalization and associated 30-day mortality evaluated in relation to the traditional classification of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Kolmos, Hans Jørn

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We investigated the overall and daily incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients and evaluated the traditional classification of bacteremia (community-onset vs nosocomial based on a 48-hour time window) by means of the daily incidence and associated 30-day mortality. METHODS:...... of bacteremia during the first 2 days followed by lower incidences that were constant beyond day 12. Thirty-day mortality was 18%-21% for patients with bacteremia on the first 2 days and 25%-35% thereafter. Our findings support the traditional classification of bacteremia.......BACKGROUND: We investigated the overall and daily incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients and evaluated the traditional classification of bacteremia (community-onset vs nosocomial based on a 48-hour time window) by means of the daily incidence and associated 30-day mortality. METHODS...... as the daily incidence of bacteremia per 10,000 bed-days and associated 30-day mortality. RESULTS: We included 724,339 admissions and 10,281 bacteremias for an overall incidence of 14.2 per 1,000 admissions and 23.6 per 10,000 bed-days. The daily incidence was highest on the first 2 days of admission followed...

  18. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Navin R.; Applebaum, Mark A.; Volchenboum, Samuel L.; Matthay, Katherine K.; London, Wendy B.; Ambros, Peter F.; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R.; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

  19. A comparative evaluation of sequence classification programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bazinet Adam L

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A fundamental problem in modern genomics is to taxonomically or functionally classify DNA sequence fragments derived from environmental sampling (i.e., metagenomics. Several different methods have been proposed for doing this effectively and efficiently, and many have been implemented in software. In addition to varying their basic algorithmic approach to classification, some methods screen sequence reads for ’barcoding genes’ like 16S rRNA, or various types of protein-coding genes. Due to the sheer number and complexity of methods, it can be difficult for a researcher to choose one that is well-suited for a particular analysis. Results We divided the very large number of programs that have been released in recent years for solving the sequence classification problem into three main categories based on the general algorithm they use to compare a query sequence against a database of sequences. We also evaluated the performance of the leading programs in each category on data sets whose taxonomic and functional composition is known. Conclusions We found significant variability in classification accuracy, precision, and resource consumption of sequence classification programs when used to analyze various metagenomics data sets. However, we observe some general trends and patterns that will be useful to researchers who use sequence classification programs.

  20. A Look at the Practice of Risk Classification: Integrative Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Alves Morais Filho

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the increase in the number of patients in emergency services / emergency brought the need for screening / risk classification as a way to organize the urgency and emergency care in the health institutions. Objectives: know how to develop the risk classification practice in the Brazilian reality using the scientific production, the insertion of nurses in risk classification using the Brazilian scientific production. Methods: an integrative review was carried out, the data occurred during September 2015 in the following databases: Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline, and the Latin American and Caribbean System of Information on Health Sciences (LILACS "GOOGLE SCHOLAR." Results: it found 9,874 articles and selected 33 for analysis. The results were organized in 04 categories: Risk classification as assistance qualifier; risk classification’s organization; operation weaknesses of the risk classification and nurse's role in risk classification. Conclusion: We conclude that the risk classification qualifies the assistance in emergency services; there are many difficulties for the risk classification’s operation and the nurse has been established as a professional with technical and legal competence to perform the risk classification.

  1. An evaluation of classification systems for stillbirth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pattinson Robert

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Audit and classification of stillbirths is an essential part of clinical practice and a crucial step towards stillbirth prevention. Due to the limitations of the ICD system and lack of an international approach to an acceptable solution, numerous disparate classification systems have emerged. We assessed the performance of six contemporary systems to inform the development of an internationally accepted approach. Methods We evaluated the following systems: Amended Aberdeen, Extended Wigglesworth; PSANZ-PDC, ReCoDe, Tulip and CODAC. Nine teams from 7 countries applied the classification systems to cohorts of stillbirths from their regions using 857 stillbirth cases. The main outcome measures were: the ability to retain the important information about the death using the InfoKeep rating; the ease of use according to the Ease rating (both measures used a five-point scale with a score Results InfoKeep scores were significantly different across the classifications (p ≤ 0.01 due to low scores for Wigglesworth and Aberdeen. CODAC received the highest mean (SD score of 3.40 (0.73 followed by PSANZ-PDC, ReCoDe and Tulip [2.77 (1.00, 2.36 (1.21, 1.92 (1.24 respectively]. Wigglesworth and Aberdeen resulted in a high proportion of unexplained stillbirths and CODAC and Tulip the lowest. While Ease scores were different (p ≤ 0.01, all systems received satisfactory scores; CODAC received the highest score. Aberdeen and Wigglesworth showed poor agreement with kappas of 0.35 and 0.25 respectively. Tulip performed best with a kappa of 0.74. The remainder had good to fair agreement. Conclusion The Extended Wigglesworth and Amended Aberdeen systems cannot be recommended for classification of stillbirths. Overall, CODAC performed best with PSANZ-PDC and ReCoDe performing well. Tulip was shown to have the best agreement and a low proportion of unexplained stillbirths. The virtues of these systems need to be considered in the development of an

  2. An evaluation of classification systems for stillbirth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flenady, Vicki; Frøen, J Frederik; Pinar, Halit; Torabi, Rozbeh; Saastad, Eli; Guyon, Grace; Russell, Laurie; Charles, Adrian; Harrison, Catherine; Chauke, Lawrence; Pattinson, Robert; Koshy, Rachel; Bahrin, Safiah; Gardener, Glenn; Day, Katie; Petersson, Karin; Gordon, Adrienne; Gilshenan, Kristen

    2009-06-19

    Audit and classification of stillbirths is an essential part of clinical practice and a crucial step towards stillbirth prevention. Due to the limitations of the ICD system and lack of an international approach to an acceptable solution, numerous disparate classification systems have emerged. We assessed the performance of six contemporary systems to inform the development of an internationally accepted approach. We evaluated the following systems: Amended Aberdeen, Extended Wigglesworth; PSANZ-PDC, ReCoDe, Tulip and CODAC. Nine teams from 7 countries applied the classification systems to cohorts of stillbirths from their regions using 857 stillbirth cases. The main outcome measures were: the ability to retain the important information about the death using the InfoKeep rating; the ease of use according to the Ease rating (both measures used a five-point scale with a score <2 considered unsatisfactory); inter-observer agreement and the proportion of unexplained stillbirths. A randomly selected subset of 100 stillbirths was used to assess inter-observer agreement. InfoKeep scores were significantly different across the classifications (p < or = 0.01) due to low scores for Wigglesworth and Aberdeen. CODAC received the highest mean (SD) score of 3.40 (0.73) followed by PSANZ-PDC, ReCoDe and Tulip [2.77 (1.00), 2.36 (1.21), 1.92 (1.24) respectively]. Wigglesworth and Aberdeen resulted in a high proportion of unexplained stillbirths and CODAC and Tulip the lowest. While Ease scores were different (p < or = 0.01), all systems received satisfactory scores; CODAC received the highest score. Aberdeen and Wigglesworth showed poor agreement with kappas of 0.35 and 0.25 respectively. Tulip performed best with a kappa of 0.74. The remainder had good to fair agreement. The Extended Wigglesworth and Amended Aberdeen systems cannot be recommended for classification of stillbirths. Overall, CODAC performed best with PSANZ-PDC and ReCoDe performing well. Tulip was shown to have the

  3. [Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

  4. 10 CFR 1045.9 - RD classification performance evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false RD classification performance evaluation. 1045.9 Section... classification performance evaluation. (a) Heads of agencies shall ensure that RD management officials and those... RD or FRD documents shall have their personnel performance evaluated with respect to classification...

  5. Nurses' perception about risk classification in an emergency service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Chaves de Souza

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Get to know how nurses perceive the accomplishment of risk classification in an emergency service. Methodology. In this qualitative study, 11 nurses were included with at least two months of experience in the risk classification of patients who visited the emergency service. Semistructured interviews were used to collect the information. The data were collected between August and December 2011. For data analysis, Bardin's theoretical framework was used. Results. The nurses in the study consider the risk classification as a work organization instruments that permits closer contact between nurses and patients. The nursing skills needed for risk classification were identified: knowledge about the scale used, clinical perspective, patience and agility. The availability of risk classification scales was the main facilitator of this work. The main difficulties were the disorganization of the care network and the health team's lack of knowledge of the protocol. Conclusion. Risk classification offers an opportunity for professional autonomy to the extent that it is the main responsible for regulating care at the entry door of the emergency services.

  6. Using QA classification to guide design and manage risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lathrop, J.; DeKlever, R.; Petrie, E.H.

    1993-01-01

    Raytheon Services Nevada has developed a classification process based on probabilistic risk assessment, using accident/impact scenarios for each system classified. Initial classification analyses were performed for the 20 systems of Package IA of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). The analyses demonstrated a solid, defensible methodological basis for classification which minimizes the use of direct engineering judgment. They provide guidance for ESF design and risk management through the identification of: The critical characteristics of each system that need to be controlled; and the parts of the information base that most need to be further developed through performance assessment or other efforts

  7. Insurance loss coverage under restricted risk classification

    OpenAIRE

    Hao, Mingjie; Radfall Charitable Trust

    2017-01-01

    Insurers hope to make profit through pooling policies from a large number of individuals. Unless the risk in question is similar for all potential customers, an insurer is exposed to the possibility of adverse selection by attracting only high-risk individuals. To counter this, insurers have traditionally employed underwriting principles, identifying suitable risk factors to subdivide their potential customers into homogeneous risk groups, based on which risk-related premiums can be charged. ...

  8. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  9. Classification of risks in the process of financial planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Overchuk

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The essence of the concept «risk» in the process of financial planning is studied. The classification of risks was conducted. The article provides the full enough and detailed system of classification of risks in the process of financial planning. The author researches and provides the factors, which directly influence upon the size of risks, which accompany the process of financial planning. A complete set of isolated independent features was determined for each risk type. It was found out that a part of features depends only on the risk type and the other part is determined by the character of a risky situation. The article substantiates the presence of indeterminacy typical for dynamic and non-stationary environment and the risks of different nature and strength of influence on the efficiency of financial planning, which cause the necessity to develop and implement the effective system of financial planning at an enterprise.

  10. A risk informed safety classification for a Nordic NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaenkaelae, K.

    2002-01-01

    The report describes a study to develop a safety classification proposal or classi- fication recommendations based on risks for selected equipment of a nuclear power plant. The application plant in this work is Loviisa NPP unit 1. The safety classification proposals are to be considered as an exercise in this pilot study and do not necessarily represent final proposals in a real situation. Comparisons to original safety classifications and technical specifications were made. The study concludes that it is possible to change safety classes or safety signifi- cances as considered in technical specifications and in in-service-inspections into both directions without endangering the safety or even by improving the safety. (au)

  11. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  12. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  13. 99mTc MDP SPECT-CT-Based Modified Mirels Classification for Evaluation of Risk of Fracture in Skeletal Metastasis: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riaz, Saima; Bashir, Humayun; Niazi, Imran Khalid; Butt, Sumera; Qamar, Faisal

    2018-06-01

    Mirels' scoring system quantifies the risk of sustaining a pathologic fracture in osseous metastases of weight bearing long bones. Conventional Mirels' scoring is based on radiographs. Our pilot study proposes Tc MDP bone SPECT-CT based modified Mirels' scoring system and its comparison with conventional Mirels' scoring. Cortical lysis was noted in 8(24%) by SPECT-CT versus 2 (6.3%) on X-rays. Additional SPECT-CT parameters were; circumferential involvement [1/4 (31%), 1/2 (3%), 3/4 (37.5%), 4/4 (28%)] and extra-osseous soft tissue [3%]. Our pilot study suggests the potential role of SPECT-CT in predicting risk of fracture in osseous metastases.

  14. [Evaluation of new and emerging health technologies. Proposal for classification].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prados-Torres, J D; Vidal-España, F; Barnestein-Fonseca, P; Gallo-García, C; Irastorza-Aldasoro, A; Leiva-Fernández, F

    2011-01-01

    Review and develop a proposal for the classification of health technologies (HT) evaluated by the Health Technology Assessment Agencies (HTAA). Peer review of AETS of the previous proposed classification of HT. Analysis of their input and suggestions for amendments. Construction of a new classification. Pilot study with physicians. Andalusian Public Health System. Spanish HTAA. Experts from HTAA. Tutors of family medicine residents. HT Update classification previously made by the research team. Peer review by Spanish HTAA. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of responses. Construction of a new and pilot study based on 12 evaluation reports of the HTAA. We obtained 11 thematic categories that are classified into 6 major head groups: 1, prevention technology; 2, diagnostic technology; 3, therapeutic technologies; 4, diagnostic and therapeutic technologies; 5, organizational technology, and 6, knowledge management and quality of care. In the pilot there was a good concordance in the classification of 8 of the 12 reports reviewed by physicians. Experts agree on 11 thematic categories of HT. A new classification of HT with double entry (Nature and purpose of HT) is proposed. APPLICABILITY: According to experts, the classification of the work of the HTAA may represent a useful tool to transfer and manage knowledge. Moreover, an adequate classification of the HTAA reports would help clinicians and other potential users to locate them and this can facilitate their dissemination. Copyright © 2010 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  15. Feasibility Study of Land Cover Classification Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Landslide Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thilanki Dahigamuwa

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable land cover leads to excessive damage from landslides and other natural hazards, whereas the presence of vegetation is expected to mitigate rainfall-induced landslide potential. Hence, unexpected and rapid changes in land cover due to deforestation would be detrimental in landslide-prone areas. Also, vegetation cover is subject to phenological variations and therefore, timely classification of land cover is an essential step in effective evaluation of landslide hazard potential. The work presented here investigates methods that can be used for land cover classification based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, derived from up-to-date satellite images, and the feasibility of application in landslide risk prediction. A major benefit of this method would be the eventual ability to employ NDVI as a stand-alone parameter for accurate assessment of the impact of land cover in landslide hazard evaluation. An added benefit would be the timely detection of undesirable practices such as deforestation using satellite imagery. A landslide-prone region in Oregon, USA is used as a model for the application of the classification method. Five selected classification techniques—k-nearest neighbor, Gaussian support vector machine (GSVM, artificial neural network, decision tree and quadratic discriminant analysis support the viability of the NDVI-based land cover classification. Finally, its application in landslide risk evaluation is demonstrated.

  16. Effect of e-learning program on risk assessment and pressure ulcer classification - A randomized study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredesen, Ida Marie; Bjøro, Karen; Gunningberg, Lena; Hofoss, Dag

    2016-05-01

    Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a problem in health care. Staff competency is paramount to PU prevention. Education is essential to increase skills in pressure ulcer classification and risk assessment. Currently, no pressure ulcer learning programs are available in Norwegian. Develop and test an e-learning program for assessment of pressure ulcer risk and pressure ulcer classification. Forty-four nurses working in acute care hospital wards or nursing homes participated and were assigned randomly into two groups: an e-learning program group (intervention) and a traditional classroom lecture group (control). Data was collected immediately before and after training, and again after three months. The study was conducted at one nursing home and two hospitals between May and December 2012. Accuracy of risk assessment (five patient cases) and pressure ulcer classification (40 photos [normal skin, pressure ulcer categories I-IV] split in two sets) were measured by comparing nurse evaluations in each of the two groups to a pre-established standard based on ratings by experts in pressure ulcer classification and risk assessment. Inter-rater reliability was measured by exact percent agreement and multi-rater Fleiss kappa. A Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous sum score variables. An e-learning program did not improve Braden subscale scoring. For pressure ulcer classification, however, the intervention group scored significantly higher than the control group on several of the categories in post-test immediately after training. However, after three months there were no significant differences in classification skills between the groups. An e-learning program appears to have a greater effect on the accuracy of pressure ulcer classification than classroom teaching in the short term. For proficiency in Braden scoring, no significant effect of educational methods on learning results was detected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Intelligent Decision Support System for Bank Loans Risk Classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨保安; 马云飞; 俞莲

    2001-01-01

    Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.

  18. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  19. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Risk classification priorities in an emergency unit and outcomes of the service provided

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Silva Marconato

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to check the association of the proposed priorities of the institutional protocol of risk classification with the outcomes and evaluate the profile of the care provided in an emergency unit. Method: observational epidemiological study based on data from the computerized files of a Reference Emergency Unit. Care provided to adults was evaluated regarding risk classification and outcomes (death, hospitalization and hospital discharge based on the information recorded in the emergency bulletin. Results: the mean age of the 97,099 registered patients was 43.4 years; 81.5% cases were spontaneous demand; 41.2% had been classified as green, 15.3% yellow, 3.7% blue, 3% red and 36.and 9% had not received a classification; 90.2% of the patients had been discharged, 9.4% hospitalized and 0.4% had died. Among patients who were discharged, 14.7% had been classified as yellow or red, 13.6% green or blue, and 1.8% as blue or green. Conclusion: the protocol of risk classification showed good sensitivity to predict serious situations that can progress to death or hospitalization.

  1. An evaluation of classification algorithms for intrusion detection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An evaluation of classification algorithms for intrusion detection. ... Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... Most of the available IDSs use all the 41 features in the network to evaluate and search for intrusive pattern in which ...

  2. Pediatric urinary incontinence: Classification, evaluation, and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A.J. Schaeffer

    tinuous incontinence refers to constant leakage of urine and can occur even in .... evaluation of pediatric urinary incontinence and guide which tests, if any, should ..... ments taken during bladder filling and storage include the maximal bladder ...

  3. A new patient classification for laser resurfacing and peels: predicting responses, risks, and results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanous, Nabil

    2002-01-01

    Traditional classifications for skin treatment modalities are based on skin characteristics, the most important being skin color. Other factors are considered as well, such as oiliness, thickness, pathology, and sensitivity. While useful, these classifications are occasionally inadequate in predicting and explaining the outcome of some peels, dermabrasions, or laser resurfacing procedures. Why, for example, would a Korean patient with a light white skin inadvertently develop more hyperpigmentation than his darker skinned French counterpart? The new classification introduced here is based on the racial and genetic origins of patients. It suggests that racial genetic predisposition is the determining factor in human response to skin injury, including skin treatments. This classification takes into account both skin and features, rather than skin alone. It offers a new approach in evaluating patients scheduled for skin peels or laser resurfacing, in the hope of helping physicians to better predict reactions, select the appropriate type and intensity of the skin treatment and, ultimately, better control the outcome. Six categories (sub-races) are described: Nordics, Europeans, Mediterraneans, Indo-Pakistanis, Africans, and Asians. The reaction of each sub-race to peels, laser resurfacing, or dermabrasion is analyzed. The risks associated with each group are noted. This new classification provides physicians with a practical way to evaluate patients prior to treatment, with a view to determining each patient's suitability, postoperative reaction, the likelihood of complications, and likely result.

  4. Epidemiology, classification, and modifiable risk factors of peripheral arterial disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas W Shammas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Nicolas W ShammasMidwest Cardiovascular Research Foundation, Cardiovascular Medicine, PC, Davenport, IA, USAAbstract: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD is part of a global vascular problem of diffuse atherosclerosis. PAD patients die mostly of cardiac and cerebrovascular-related events and much less frequently due to obstructive disease of the lower extremities. Aggressive risk factors modification is needed to reduce cardiac mortality in PAD patients. These include smoking cessation, reduction of blood pressure to current guidelines, aggressive low density lipoprotein lowering, losing weight, controlling diabetes and the use of oral antiplatelet drugs such as aspirin or clopidogrel. In addition to quitting smoking and exercise, cilostazol and statins have been shown to reduce claudication in patients with PAD. Patients with critical rest limb ischemia or severe progressive claudication need to be treated with revascularization to minimize the chance of limb loss, reduce symptoms, and improve quality of life.Keywords: peripheral arterial disease, epidemiology, risk factors, classification

  5. Classification and evaluation of medical devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edina Vranić

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Medical devices and medical disposables contribute significantly to the quality and effectiveness of the health care system. It is necessary to commit scientifically sound regulatory environment that will provide consumers with the best medical care. This includes continued services to small manufacturers, readily available guidance on FDA requirements, predictable and reasonable response times on applications for marketing, and equitable enforcement. But in the public interest, this commitment to the industry must be coupled with a reciprocal commitment: that medical device firms will meet high standards in the design, manufacture, and evaluation of their products. The protections afforded our consumer, and the benefits provided the medical device industry, cannot be underestimated.

  6. Predicting disease risk using bootstrap ranking and classification algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ohad Manor

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS are widely used to search for genetic loci that underlie human disease. Another goal is to predict disease risk for different individuals given their genetic sequence. Such predictions could either be used as a "black box" in order to promote changes in life-style and screening for early diagnosis, or as a model that can be studied to better understand the mechanism of the disease. Current methods for risk prediction typically rank single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs by the p-value of their association with the disease, and use the top-associated SNPs as input to a classification algorithm. However, the predictive power of such methods is relatively poor. To improve the predictive power, we devised BootRank, which uses bootstrapping in order to obtain a robust prioritization of SNPs for use in predictive models. We show that BootRank improves the ability to predict disease risk of unseen individuals in the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data and results in a more robust set of SNPs and a larger number of enriched pathways being associated with the different diseases. Finally, we show that combining BootRank with seven different classification algorithms improves performance compared to previous studies that used the WTCCC data. Notably, diseases for which BootRank results in the largest improvements were recently shown to have more heritability than previously thought, likely due to contributions from variants with low minimum allele frequency (MAF, suggesting that BootRank can be beneficial in cases where SNPs affecting the disease are poorly tagged or have low MAF. Overall, our results show that improving disease risk prediction from genotypic information may be a tangible goal, with potential implications for personalized disease screening and treatment.

  7. RESEARCH ON RISK CLASSIFICATION METHOD OF ASSEMBLY OCCUPANCIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the densely population and mobility characteristics of the crowd, generally accidents happened in assembly occupancies will trigger a chain reaction, and then bring heavy casualties and property loss, and result disastrous consequences. In the context of safety regulation resources limited, building risk classification system of assembly occupancies is important for "scientific predicting, and hierarchical controlling” In this paper, a software with a graphical user interface is designed using MATLAB GUI to analyze and calculate risks of stampede accident caused by gathered crowds in the video. A velocity extraction method based on cross-correlation algorithm is adopted, and the risk characteristic parameters such as velocity variance is also applied. In this way, real-time analysis and early-warning for risks of stampede accident in time and space can be achieved. Also, the algorithm is applied to the surveillance video of the stampede in Shanghai and its feasibility is proved. Empirical research shows that, the assembly occupancies risk rating model built in this paper has good effectiveness, simplicity and practicability, applies to the government safety regulation and organization safety management, and can improve the safety situation of assembly occupancies effectively.

  8. Frailty and Risk Classification for Life Annuity Portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Olivieri

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Life annuities are attractive mainly for healthy people. In order to expand their business, in recent years, some insurers have started offering higher annuity rates to those whose health conditions are critical. Life annuity portfolios are then supposed to become larger and more heterogeneous. With respect to the insurer’s risk profile, there is a trade-off between portfolio size and heterogeneity that we intend to investigate. In performing this, there is a second and possibly more important issue that we address. In actuarial practice, the different mortality levels of the several risk classes are obtained by applying adjustment coefficients to population mortality rates. Such a choice is not supported by a rigorous model. On the other hand, the heterogeneity of a population with respect to mortality can formally be described with a frailty model. We suggest adopting a frailty model for risk classification. We identify risk groups (or classes within the population by assigning specific ranges of values to the frailty within each group. The different levels of mortality of the various groups are based on the conditional probability distributions of the frailty. Annuity rates for each class then can be easily justified, and a comprehensive investigation of insurer’s liabilities can be performed.

  9. Risk factors and classification of stillbirth in a Middle Eastern population: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunjachen Maducolil, Mariam; Abid, Hafsa; Lobo, Rachael Marian; Chughtai, Ambreen Qayyum; Afzal, Arjumand Muhammad; Saleh, Huda Abdullah Hussain; Lindow, Stephen W

    2017-12-21

    To estimate the incidence of stillbirth, explore the associated maternal and fetal factors and to evaluate the most appropriate classification of stillbirth for a multiethnic population. This is a retrospective population-based study of stillbirth in a large tertiary unit. Data of each stillbirth with a gestational age >/=24 weeks in the year 2015 were collected from electronic medical records and analyzed. The stillbirth rate for our multiethnic population is 7.81 per 1000 births. Maternal medical factors comprised 52.4% in which the rates of hypertensive disorders, diabetes and other medical disorders were 22.5%, 20.8% and 8.3%, respectively. The most common fetal factor was intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) (22.5%) followed by congenital anomalies (21.6%). All cases were categorized using the Wigglesworth, Aberdeen, Tulip, ReCoDe and International Classification of Diseases-perinatal mortality (ICD-PM) classifications and the rates of unclassified stillbirths were 59.2%, 46.6%, 16.6%, 11.6% and 7.5%, respectively. An autopsy was performed in 9.1% of cases reflecting local religious and cultural sensitivities. This study highlighted the modifiable risk factors among the Middle Eastern population. The most appropriate classification was the ICD-PM. The low rates of autopsy prevented a detailed evaluation of stillbirths, therefore it is suggested that a minimally invasive autopsy [postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] may improve the quality of care.

  10. Toward a Safety Risk-Based Classification of Unmanned Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2016-01-01

    There is a trend of growing interest and demand for greater access of unmanned aircraft (UA) to the National Airspace System (NAS) as the ongoing development of UA technology has created the potential for significant economic benefits. However, the lack of a comprehensive and efficient UA regulatory framework has constrained the number and kinds of UA operations that can be performed. This report presents initial results of a study aimed at defining a safety-risk-based UA classification as a plausible basis for a regulatory framework for UA operating in the NAS. Much of the study up to this point has been at a conceptual high level. The report includes a survey of contextual topics, analysis of safety risk considerations, and initial recommendations for a risk-based approach to safe UA operations in the NAS. The next phase of the study will develop and leverage deeper clarity and insight into practical engineering and regulatory considerations for ensuring that UA operations have an acceptable level of safety.

  11. Acute myeloid leukemia in the era of precision medicine: recent advances in diagnostic classification and risk stratification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kansal, Rina

    2016-01-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a genetically heterogeneous myeloid malignancy that occurs more commonly in adults, and has an increasing incidence, most likely due to increasing age. Precise diagnostic classification of AML requires clinical and pathologic information, the latter including morphologic, immunophenotypic, cytogenetic and molecular genetic analysis. Risk stratification in AML requires cytogenetics evaluation as the most important predictor, with genetic mutations providing additional necessary information. AML with normal cytogenetics comprises about 40%-50% of all AML, and has been intensively investigated. The currently used 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic neoplasms has been proposed to be updated in 2016, also to include an update on the classification of AML, due to the continuously increasing application of genomic techniques that have led to major advances in our knowledge of the pathogenesis of AML. The purpose of this review is to describe some of these recent major advances in the diagnostic classification and risk stratification of AML

  12. Acute myeloid leukemia in the era of precision medicine: recent advances in diagnostic classification and risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Rina

    2016-03-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a genetically heterogeneous myeloid malignancy that occurs more commonly in adults, and has an increasing incidence, most likely due to increasing age. Precise diagnostic classification of AML requires clinical and pathologic information, the latter including morphologic, immunophenotypic, cytogenetic and molecular genetic analysis. Risk stratification in AML requires cytogenetics evaluation as the most important predictor, with genetic mutations providing additional necessary information. AML with normal cytogenetics comprises about 40%-50% of all AML, and has been intensively investigated. The currently used 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic neoplasms has been proposed to be updated in 2016, also to include an update on the classification of AML, due to the continuously increasing application of genomic techniques that have led to major advances in our knowledge of the pathogenesis of AML. The purpose of this review is to describe some of these recent major advances in the diagnostic classification and risk stratification of AML.

  13. Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clary, Renee; Wandersee, James

    2013-01-01

    In this article, Renee Clary and James Wandersee describe the beginnings of "Classification," which lies at the very heart of science and depends upon pattern recognition. Clary and Wandersee approach patterns by first telling the story of the "Linnaean classification system," introduced by Carl Linnacus (1707-1778), who is…

  14. Deep learning architectures for multi-label classification of intelligent health risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Andrew; Li, Runzhi; Yang, Bei; Weng, Heng; Ou, Aihua; Hong, Huixiao; Zhou, Zhaoxian; Gong, Ping; Zhang, Chaoyang

    2017-12-28

    Multi-label classification of data remains to be a challenging problem. Because of the complexity of the data, it is sometimes difficult to infer information about classes that are not mutually exclusive. For medical data, patients could have symptoms of multiple different diseases at the same time and it is important to develop tools that help to identify problems early. Intelligent health risk prediction models built with deep learning architectures offer a powerful tool for physicians to identify patterns in patient data that indicate risks associated with certain types of chronic diseases. Physical examination records of 110,300 anonymous patients were used to predict diabetes, hypertension, fatty liver, a combination of these three chronic diseases, and the absence of disease (8 classes in total). The dataset was split into training (90%) and testing (10%) sub-datasets. Ten-fold cross validation was used to evaluate prediction accuracy with metrics such as precision, recall, and F-score. Deep Learning (DL) architectures were compared with standard and state-of-the-art multi-label classification methods. Preliminary results suggest that Deep Neural Networks (DNN), a DL architecture, when applied to multi-label classification of chronic diseases, produced accuracy that was comparable to that of common methods such as Support Vector Machines. We have implemented DNNs to handle both problem transformation and algorithm adaption type multi-label methods and compare both to see which is preferable. Deep Learning architectures have the potential of inferring more information about the patterns of physical examination data than common classification methods. The advanced techniques of Deep Learning can be used to identify the significance of different features from physical examination data as well as to learn the contributions of each feature that impact a patient's risk for chronic diseases. However, accurate prediction of chronic disease risks remains a challenging

  15. Possession States: Approaches to Clinical Evaluation and Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. McCormick

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The fields of anthropology and sociology have produced a large quantity of literature on possession states, physicians however rarely report on such phenomena. As a result clinical description of possession states has suffered, even though these states may be more common and less deviant than supposed. Both ICD-10 and DSM-IV may include specific criteria for possession disorders. The authors briefly review Western notions about possession and kindred states and present guidelines for evaluation and classification.

  16. Comprehensive Evaluation and Classification of Interchange Diagrammatic Guide Signs’ Complexity

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yang; Zhao, Xiaohua; He, Qing; Huang, Lihua; Rong, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The effectiveness of interchange diagrammatic guide signs has significant meaning in traffic safety and driver’s understanding. This paper presented a comprehensive evaluation and classification of interchange diagrammatic guide signs’ complexity. The effectiveness of interchange diagrammatic guide signs relies on how well road users can understand those diagrams. This study tested 37 types of diagrams on the visual recognition complexity degree in three levels, general level, partial level, ...

  17. Evaluation of interobserver agreement in Albertoni's classification for mallet finger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinícius Alexandre de Souza Almeida

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To measure the reliability of Albertoni's classification for mallet finger. Methods: Agreement study. Forty-three radiographs of patients with mallet finger were assessed by 19 responders (12 hand surgeons and seven residents. Injuries were classified by Albertoni's classification. For agreement comparison, lesions were grouped as: (A tendon avulsion; (B avulsion fracture; (C fracture of the dorsal lip; and (D physis injury-and subgroups (each group divided into two subgroups. Agreement was assessed by Fleiss's modification for kappa statistics. Results: Agreement was excellent for Group A (k = 0.95 (0.93-0.97 and remained good when separated into A1 and A2. Group B was moderate (k = 0.42 (0.39-0.44 and poor when separated into B1 and B2. In the Group C, agreement was good (k = 0.72 (0.70-0.74, but when separated into C1 and C2, it became moderate. Group D was always poor (k = 0.16 (0.14-0.19. The general agreement was moderate, with (k = 0.57 (0.56-0.58. Conclusion: Albertoni's classification evaluated for interobserver agreement is considered a reproducible classification by the method used in the research.

  18. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Empirical evaluation of data normalization methods for molecular classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Huei-Chung; Qin, Li-Xuan

    2018-01-01

    Data artifacts due to variations in experimental handling are ubiquitous in microarray studies, and they can lead to biased and irreproducible findings. A popular approach to correct for such artifacts is through post hoc data adjustment such as data normalization. Statistical methods for data normalization have been developed and evaluated primarily for the discovery of individual molecular biomarkers. Their performance has rarely been studied for the development of multi-marker molecular classifiers-an increasingly important application of microarrays in the era of personalized medicine. In this study, we set out to evaluate the performance of three commonly used methods for data normalization in the context of molecular classification, using extensive simulations based on re-sampling from a unique pair of microRNA microarray datasets for the same set of samples. The data and code for our simulations are freely available as R packages at GitHub. In the presence of confounding handling effects, all three normalization methods tended to improve the accuracy of the classifier when evaluated in an independent test data. The level of improvement and the relative performance among the normalization methods depended on the relative level of molecular signal, the distributional pattern of handling effects (e.g., location shift vs scale change), and the statistical method used for building the classifier. In addition, cross-validation was associated with biased estimation of classification accuracy in the over-optimistic direction for all three normalization methods. Normalization may improve the accuracy of molecular classification for data with confounding handling effects; however, it cannot circumvent the over-optimistic findings associated with cross-validation for assessing classification accuracy.

  20. Classification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2017-01-01

    This article presents and discusses definitions of the term “classification” and the related concepts “Concept/conceptualization,”“categorization,” “ordering,” “taxonomy” and “typology.” It further presents and discusses theories of classification including the influences of Aristotle...... and Wittgenstein. It presents different views on forming classes, including logical division, numerical taxonomy, historical classification, hermeneutical and pragmatic/critical views. Finally, issues related to artificial versus natural classification and taxonomic monism versus taxonomic pluralism are briefly...

  1. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Cancer classification issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiltse, J. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues presented are related to classification of weight of evidence in cancer risk assessments. The focus in this paper is on lines of evidence used in constructing a conclusion about potential human carcinogenicity. The paper also discusses issues that are mistakenly addressed as classification issues but are really part of the risk assessment process. 2 figs.

  2. Evaluation of classification systems for nonspecific idiopathic orbital inflammation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, Ward R.; van 't Hullenaar, Fleur C.; Mourits, Maarten P.; Kalmann, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    To systematically analyze existing classification systems for idiopathic orbital inflammation (IOI) and propose and test a new best practice classification system. A systematic literature search was conducted to find all studies that described and applied a classification system for IOI.

  3. Risk classification and uncertainty propagation for virtual water distribution systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Jacob M.; Brumbelow, Kelly; Guikema, Seth D.

    2009-01-01

    While the secrecy of real water distribution system data is crucial, it poses difficulty for research as results cannot be publicized. This data includes topological layouts of pipe networks, pump operation schedules, and water demands. Therefore, a library of virtual water distribution systems can be an important research tool for comparative development of analytical methods. A virtual city, 'Micropolis', has been developed, including a comprehensive water distribution system, as a first entry into such a library. This virtual city of 5000 residents is fully described in both geographic information systems (GIS) and EPANet hydraulic model frameworks. A risk classification scheme and Monte Carlo analysis are employed for an attempted water supply contamination attack. Model inputs to be considered include uncertainties in: daily water demand, seasonal demand, initial storage tank levels, the time of day a contamination event is initiated, duration of contamination event, and contaminant quantity. Findings show that reasonable uncertainties in model inputs produce high variability in exposure levels. It is also shown that exposure level distributions experience noticeable sensitivities to population clusters within the contaminant spread area. High uncertainties in exposure patterns lead to greater resources needed for more effective mitigation strategies.

  4. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma response evaluation with MRI texture classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinonen Tomi T

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To show magnetic resonance imaging (MRI texture appearance change in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL during treatment with response controlled by quantitative volume analysis. Methods A total of 19 patients having NHL with an evaluable lymphoma lesion were scanned at three imaging timepoints with 1.5T device during clinical treatment evaluation. Texture characteristics of images were analyzed and classified with MaZda application and statistical tests. Results NHL tissue MRI texture imaged before treatment and under chemotherapy was classified within several subgroups, showing best discrimination with 96% correct classification in non-linear discriminant analysis of T2-weighted images. Texture parameters of MRI data were successfully tested with statistical tests to assess the impact of the separability of the parameters in evaluating chemotherapy response in lymphoma tissue. Conclusion Texture characteristics of MRI data were classified successfully; this proved texture analysis to be potential quantitative means of representing lymphoma tissue changes during chemotherapy response monitoring.

  5. Classification and Quality Evaluation of Tobacco Leaves Based on Image Processing and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Xinhong

    2011-01-01

    Most of classification, quality evaluation or grading of the flue-cured tobacco leaves are manually operated, which relies on the judgmental experience of experts, and inevitably limited by personal, physical and environmental factors. The classification and the quality evaluation are therefore subjective and experientially based. In this paper, an automatic classification method of tobacco leaves based on the digital image processing and the fuzzy sets theory is presented. A grading system based on image processing techniques was developed for automatically inspecting and grading flue-cured tobacco leaves. This system uses machine vision for the extraction and analysis of color, size, shape and surface texture. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation provides a high level of confidence in decision making based on the fuzzy logic. The neural network is used to estimate and forecast the membership function of the features of tobacco leaves in the fuzzy sets. The experimental results of the two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) show that the accuracy rate of classification is about 94% for the trained tobacco leaves, and the accuracy rate of the non-trained tobacco leaves is about 72%. We believe that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a viable way for the automatic classification and quality evaluation of the tobacco leaves. PMID:22163744

  6. An NRG Oncology/GOG study of molecular classification for risk prediction in endometrioid endometrial cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, Casey M; Tritchler, David L; Cohn, David E; Mutch, David G; Rush, Craig M; Lankes, Heather A; Creasman, William T; Miller, David S; Ramirez, Nilsa C; Geller, Melissa A; Powell, Matthew A; Backes, Floor J; Landrum, Lisa M; Timmers, Cynthia; Suarez, Adrian A; Zaino, Richard J; Pearl, Michael L; DiSilvestro, Paul A; Lele, Shashikant B; Goodfellow, Paul J

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of a simplified, clinically accessible classification system for endometrioid endometrial cancers combining Lynch syndrome screening and molecular risk stratification. Tumors from NRG/GOG GOG210 were evaluated for mismatch repair defects (MSI, MMR IHC, and MLH1 methylation), POLE mutations, and loss of heterozygosity. TP53 was evaluated in a subset of cases. Tumors were assigned to four molecular classes. Relationships between molecular classes and clinicopathologic variables were assessed using contingency tests and Cox proportional methods. Molecular classification was successful for 982 tumors. Based on the NCI consensus MSI panel assessing MSI and loss of heterozygosity combined with POLE testing, 49% of tumors were classified copy number stable (CNS), 39% MMR deficient, 8% copy number altered (CNA) and 4% POLE mutant. Cancer-specific mortality occurred in 5% of patients with CNS tumors; 2.6% with POLE tumors; 7.6% with MMR deficient tumors and 19% with CNA tumors. The CNA group had worse progression-free (HR 2.31, 95%CI 1.53-3.49) and cancer-specific survival (HR 3.95; 95%CI 2.10-7.44). The POLE group had improved outcomes, but the differences were not statistically significant. CNA class remained significant for cancer-specific survival (HR 2.11; 95%CI 1.04-4.26) in multivariable analysis. The CNA molecular class was associated with TP53 mutation and expression status. A simple molecular classification for endometrioid endometrial cancers that can be easily combined with Lynch syndrome screening provides important prognostic information. These findings support prospective clinical validation and further studies on the predictive value of a simplified molecular classification system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk classification and cream skimming on the deregulated German insurance market

    OpenAIRE

    Beschorner, Patrick F. E.

    2003-01-01

    In a two-stage model insurance companies first decide upon risk classification and then compete in prices. I show that the observed heterogeneous behavior of similar firms is compatible with rational behavior. On the deregulated German insurance market individual application of classification schemes induces welfare losses due to cream skimming. Classification costs and pricing above marginal cost can be prevented by common industry-wide loss statistics which already exist to a rudimentary ex...

  8. Association between traditional clinical high-risk features and gene expression profile classification in uveal melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Brandon T; Kim, Ryan S; Bretana, Maria E; Kegley, Eric; Schefler, Amy C

    2018-02-01

    To evaluate the association between traditional clinical high-risk features of uveal melanoma patients and gene expression profile (GEP). This was a retrospective, single-center, case series of patients with uveal melanoma. Eighty-three patients met inclusion criteria for the study. Patients were examined for the following clinical risk factors: drusen/retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) changes, vascularity on B-scan, internal reflectivity on A-scan, subretinal fluid (SRF), orange pigment, apical tumor height/thickness, and largest basal dimensions (LBD). A novel point system was created to grade the high-risk clinical features of each tumor. Further analyses were performed to assess the degree of association between GEP and each individual risk factor, total clinical risk score, vascularity, internal reflectivity, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage classification, apical tumor height/thickness, and LBD. Of the 83 total patients, 41 were classified as GEP class 1A, 17 as class 1B, and 25 as class 2. The presence of orange pigment, SRF, low internal reflectivity and vascularity on ultrasound, and apical tumor height/thickness ≥ 2 mm were not statistically significantly associated with GEP class. Lack of drusen/RPE changes demonstrated a trend toward statistical association with GEP class 2 compared to class 1A/1B. LBD and advancing AJCC stage was statistically associated with higher GEP class. In this cohort, AJCC stage classification and LBD were the only clinical features statistically associated with GEP class. Clinicians should use caution when inferring the growth potential of melanocytic lesions solely from traditional funduscopic and ultrasonographic risk factors without GEP data.

  9. A hazard and risk classification system for catastrophic rock slope failures in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermanns, R.; Oppikofer, T.; Anda, E.; Blikra, L. H.; Böhme, M.; Bunkholt, H.; Dahle, H.; Devoli, G.; Eikenæs, O.; Fischer, L.; Harbitz, C. B.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Loew, S.; Yugsi Molina, F. X.

    2012-04-01

    The Geological Survey of Norway carries out systematic geologic mapping of potentially unstable rock slopes in Norway that can cause a catastrophic failure. As catastrophic failure we describe failures that involve substantial fragmentation of the rock mass during run-out and that impact an area larger than that of a rock fall (shadow angle of ca. 28-32° for rock falls). This includes therefore rock slope failures that lead to secondary effects, such as a displacement wave when impacting a water body or damming of a narrow valley. Our systematic mapping revealed more than 280 rock slopes with significant postglacial deformation, which might represent localities of large future rock slope failures. This large number necessitates prioritization of follow-up activities, such as more detailed investigations, periodic monitoring and permanent monitoring and early-warning. In the past hazard and risk were assessed qualitatively for some sites, however, in order to compare sites so that political and financial decisions can be taken, it was necessary to develop a quantitative hazard and risk classification system. A preliminary classification system was presented and discussed with an expert group of Norwegian and international experts and afterwards adapted following their recommendations. This contribution presents the concept of this final hazard and risk classification that should be used in Norway in the upcoming years. Historical experience and possible future rockslide scenarios in Norway indicate that hazard assessment of large rock slope failures must be scenario-based, because intensity of deformation and present displacement rates, as well as the geological structures activated by the sliding rock mass can vary significantly on a given slope. In addition, for each scenario the run-out of the rock mass has to be evaluated. This includes the secondary effects such as generation of displacement waves or landslide damming of valleys with the potential of later

  10. Evaluation of Urinary Tract Dilation Classification System for Grading Postnatal Hydronephrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodhod, Amr; Capolicchio, John-Paul; Jednak, Roman; El-Sherif, Eid; El-Doray, Abd El-Alim; El-Sherbiny, Mohamed

    2016-03-01

    We assessed the reliability and validity of the Urinary Tract Dilation classification system as a new grading system for postnatal hydronephrosis. We retrospectively reviewed charts of patients who presented with hydronephrosis from 2008 to 2013. We included patients diagnosed prenatally and those with hydronephrosis discovered incidentally during the first year of life. We excluded cases involving urinary tract infection, neurogenic bladder and chromosomal anomalies, those associated with extraurinary congenital malformations and those with followup of less than 24 months without resolution. Hydronephrosis was graded postnatally using the Society for Fetal Urology system, and then the management protocol was chosen. All units were regraded using the Urinary Tract Dilation classification system and compared to the Society for Fetal Urology system to assess reliability. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the validity of the Urinary Tract Dilation classification system in predicting hydronephrosis resolution and surgical intervention. A total of 490 patients (730 renal units) were eligible to participate. The Urinary Tract Dilation classification system was reliable in the assessment of hydronephrosis (parallel forms 0.92). Hydronephrosis resolved in 357 units (49%), and 86 units (12%) were managed by surgical intervention. The remainder of renal units demonstrated stable or improved hydronephrosis. Multivariate analysis revealed that the likelihood of surgical intervention was predicted independently by Urinary Tract Dilation classification system risk group, while Society for Fetal Urology grades were predictive of likelihood of resolution. The Urinary Tract Dilation classification system is reliable for evaluation of postnatal hydronephrosis and is valid in predicting surgical intervention. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. ABC Classification of Risk Factors in Production Supply Chains with Uncertain Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Vujović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of classification of risk factors in an uncertain environment is part of the risk management problem, which has a critical effect on the competitive advantage of production supply chain. The severities of consequences, their relative importance, and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are defined by risk management team, depending on their experience and the results of good practice. Fuzzy rating of the severities of consequences and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are described by linguistic expressions, which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. The risk values, obtained by the materialization of the identified risk factors, are given precisely with the usage of fuzzy algebra rules. The classification criterion is defined as the distance between current risk value and extreme risk values. The proposed model enables determination of the priorities of risk factors. It is illustrated by an example with real-life data from a production supply chain in auto industry.

  12. Balancing research and funding using value of information and portfolio tools for nanomaterial risk classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Zussblatt, Niels P.; Plourde, Kenton J.; Wender, Ben A.; Linkov, Igor

    2016-02-01

    Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis—methods commonly applied in financial and operations management—to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to assess how different research strategies can improve hazard classification. The relative cost of each research experiment is elicited from experts, which enables identification of efficient research portfolios—combinations of experiments that lead to the greatest improvement in hazard classification at the lowest cost. Nanoparticle shape, diameter, solubility and surface reactivity were most frequently identified within efficient portfolios in our results.

  13. Construction accident narrative classification: An evaluation of text mining techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Yang Miang; Ubeynarayana, C U

    2017-11-01

    Learning from past accidents is fundamental to accident prevention. Thus, accident and near miss reporting are encouraged by organizations and regulators. However, for organizations managing large safety databases, the time taken to accurately classify accident and near miss narratives will be very significant. This study aims to evaluate the utility of various text mining classification techniques in classifying 1000 publicly available construction accident narratives obtained from the US OSHA website. The study evaluated six machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), decision tree (DT) and Naive Bayes (NB), and found that SVM produced the best performance in classifying the test set of 251 cases. Further experimentation with tokenization of the processed text and non-linear SVM were also conducted. In addition, a grid search was conducted on the hyperparameters of the SVM models. It was found that the best performing classifiers were linear SVM with unigram tokenization and radial basis function (RBF) SVM with uni-gram tokenization. In view of its relative simplicity, the linear SVM is recommended. Across the 11 labels of accident causes or types, the precision of the linear SVM ranged from 0.5 to 1, recall ranged from 0.36 to 0.9 and F1 score was between 0.45 and 0.92. The reasons for misclassification were discussed and suggestions on ways to improve the performance were provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Waste-acceptance criteria and risk-based thinking for radioactive-waste classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowenthal, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    The US system of radioactive-waste classification and its development provide a reference point for the discussion of risk-based thinking in waste classification. The official US system is described and waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites are introduced because they constitute a form of de facto waste classification. Risk-based classification is explored and it is found that a truly risk-based system is context-dependent: risk depends not only on the waste-management activity but, for some activities such as disposal, it depends on the specific physical context. Some of the elements of the official US system incorporate risk-based thinking, but like many proposed alternative schemes, the physical context of disposal is ignored. The waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites do account for this context dependence and could be used as a risk-based classification scheme for disposal. While different classes would be necessary for different management activities, the waste-acceptance criteria would obviate the need for the current system and could better match wastes to disposal environments saving money or improving safety or both

  15. Application of classification algorithms for analysis of road safety risk factor dependencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Hoon; Rhee, Wonjong; Yoon, Yoonjin

    2015-02-01

    Transportation continues to be an integral part of modern life, and the importance of road traffic safety cannot be overstated. Consequently, recent road traffic safety studies have focused on analysis of risk factors that impact fatality and injury level (severity) of traffic accidents. While some of the risk factors, such as drug use and drinking, are widely known to affect severity, an accurate modeling of their influences is still an open research topic. Furthermore, there are innumerable risk factors that are waiting to be discovered or analyzed. A promising approach is to investigate historical traffic accident data that have been collected in the past decades. This study inspects traffic accident reports that have been accumulated by the California Highway Patrol (CHP) since 1973 for which each accident report contains around 100 data fields. Among them, we investigate 25 fields between 2004 and 2010 that are most relevant to car accidents. Using two classification methods, the Naive Bayes classifier and the decision tree classifier, the relative importance of the data fields, i.e., risk factors, is revealed with respect to the resulting severity level. Performances of the classifiers are compared to each other and a binary logistic regression model is used as the basis for the comparisons. Some of the high-ranking risk factors are found to be strongly dependent on each other, and their incremental gains on estimating or modeling severity level are evaluated quantitatively. The analysis shows that only a handful of the risk factors in the data dominate the severity level and that dependency among the top risk factors is an imperative trait to consider for an accurate analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

    2006-11-01

    To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

  17. Identifying colon cancer risk modules with better classification performance based on human signaling network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xiaoli; Xie, Ruiqiang; Chen, Lina; Feng, Chenchen; Zhou, Yanyan; Li, Wan; Huang, Hao; Jia, Xu; Lv, Junjie; He, Yuehan; Du, Youwen; Li, Weiguo; Shi, Yuchen; He, Weiming

    2014-10-01

    Identifying differences between normal and tumor samples from a modular perspective may help to improve our understanding of the mechanisms responsible for colon cancer. Many cancer studies have shown that signaling transduction and biological pathways are disturbed in disease states, and expression profiles can distinguish variations in diseases. In this study, we integrated a weighted human signaling network and gene expression profiles to select risk modules associated with tumor conditions. Risk modules as classification features by our method had a better classification performance than other methods, and one risk module for colon cancer had a good classification performance for distinguishing between normal/tumor samples and between tumor stages. All genes in the module were annotated to the biological process of positive regulation of cell proliferation, and were highly associated with colon cancer. These results suggested that these genes might be the potential risk genes for colon cancer. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. THEORETICAL QUESTIONS OF INVESTMENT RISK RESEARCH, ITS MAIN FEATURES AND CLASSIFICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kadyrbaev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article examines framework methodology of investment risk. The subject of the study are the basic theoretical positions directly related to the economic category of "investment risk". The purpose of this writing is the improvement of the methodology of the study of investment risk in the investment activity. This objective is to define the tasks, which consist in the formulation of the concept of "investment risk", the development of investment risk classification to provide investors with effective protection against such risks. The implementation  of the tasks will create conditions for the growth of investments in Russia. Currently, effective investment strategy for such an increase, is among the priority directions of development of the Russian economy.The article deals with logically interrelated study of basic economic categories, influencing directly on the investment risk. Author provided classification of investments in accordance with the level of risk. Examine the matter of the financial-economic category of the concept of "investment risk" and the classification of investment risks. Specified main features of the investment risk, which allowed to reveal specifics, which consists in the redistribution of capital in various types of assets in order to maximize profits or to obtain significant social effect.

  19. Are preoperative histology and MRI useful for classification of endometrial cancer risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Body, Noemie; Lavoué, Vincent; De Kerdaniel, Olivier; Foucher, Fabrice; Henno, Sébastien; Cauchois, Aurélie; Laviolle, Bruno; Leblanc, Marc; Levêque, Jean

    2016-01-01

    The 2010 guidelines of the French National Cancer Institute (INCa) classify patients with endometrial cancer into three risk groups for lymph node invasion and recurrence on the basis of MRI and histological analysis of an endometrial specimen obtained preoperatively. The classification guides therapeutic choices, which may include pelvic and/or para-aortic lymphadenectomy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative assessment to help identify intermediate- or high-risk patients requiring lymphadenectomy. The study included all patients who underwent surgery for endometrial cancer between January 2010 and December 2013 at either Rennes University Hospital or Vannes Regional Hospital. The criteria for eligibility included a preoperative assessment with MRI and histological examination of an endometrial sample. A histological comparison was made between the preoperative and surgical specimens. Among the 91 patients who underwent a full preoperative assessment, the diagnosis of intermediate- or high-risk endometrial cancer was established by MRI and histology with a sensitivity of 70 %, specificity of 82 %, positive predictive value (PPV) of 87 %, negative predictive value (NPV) of 61 %, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 3.8 and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.3. The risk group was underestimated in 32 % of patients and overestimated in 7 % of patients. MRI underestimated endometrial cancer stage in 20 % of cases, while endometrial sampling underestimated the histological type in 4 % of cases and the grade in 9 % of cases. The preoperative assessment overestimated or underestimated the risk of recurrence in nearly 40 % of cases, with errors in lesion type, grade or stage. Erroneous preoperative risk assessment leads to suboptimal initial surgical management of patients with endometrial cancer

  20. Statistical concepts of a priori and a posteriori risk classification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Valdez, E.A.

    2010-01-01

    Everyday we face all kinds of risks, and insurance is in the business of providing us a means to transfer or share these risks, usually to eliminate or reduce the resulting financial burden, in exchange for a predetermined price or tariff. Actuaries are considered professional experts in the

  1. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. I: Conceptual development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    The predominant paradigm for the premarket assessment of genetically modified (GM) foods reflects heightened public concern by focusing on foods modified by recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (rDNA) techniques, while foods modified by other methods of genetic modification are generally not assessed for safety. To determine whether a GM product requires less or more regulatory oversight and testing, we developed and evaluated a risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived GM foods. The results of this research are presented in three papers. This paper describes the conceptual development of the proposed RBCS that focuses on two categories of adverse health effects: (1) toxic and antinutritional effects, and (2) allergenic effects. The factors that may affect the level of potential health risks of GM foods are identified. For each factor identified, criteria for differentiating health risk potential are developed. The extent to which a GM food satisfies applicable criteria for each factor is rated separately. A concern level for each category of health effects is then determined by aggregating the ratings for the factors using predetermined aggregation rules. An overview of the proposed scheme is presented, as well as the application of the scheme to a hypothetical GM food.

  2. A novel risk classification system for 30-day mortality in children undergoing surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Arianne I.; Jones, Tamekia L.; Huang, Eunice Y.; Davis, Robert L.

    2018-01-01

    A simple, objective and accurate way of grouping children undergoing surgery into clinically relevant risk groups is needed. The purpose of this study, is to develop and validate a preoperative risk classification system for postsurgical 30-day mortality for children undergoing a wide variety of operations. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Project-Pediatric participant use file data for calendar years 2012–2014 was analyzed to determine preoperative variables most associated with death within 30 days of operation (D30). Risk groups were created using classification tree analysis based on these preoperative variables. The resulting risk groups were validated using 2015 data, and applied to neonates and higher risk CPT codes to determine validity in high-risk subpopulations. A five-level risk classification was found to be most accurate. The preoperative need for ventilation, oxygen support, inotropic support, sepsis, the need for emergent surgery and a do not resuscitate order defined non-overlapping groups with observed rates of D30 that vary from 0.075% (Very Low Risk) to 38.6% (Very High Risk). When CPT codes where death was never observed are eliminated or when the system is applied to neonates, the groupings remained predictive of death in an ordinal manner. PMID:29351327

  3. Significance, definition, classification and risk factors of chronic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    stimulating agents are considered. 15. Physicians should reduce the dose or extend the administration interval, depending on kidney function, when administering drugs that are renally excreted. 16. NSAIDs, contrast media and diuretics are high-grade risk factors for a decline (often permanent) in kidney function in patients.

  4. Evaluation of Current Approaches to Stream Classification and a Heuristic Guide to Developing Classifications of Integrated Aquatic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melles, S. J.; Jones, N. E.; Schmidt, B. J.

    2014-03-01

    Conservation and management of fresh flowing waters involves evaluating and managing effects of cumulative impacts on the aquatic environment from disturbances such as: land use change, point and nonpoint source pollution, the creation of dams and reservoirs, mining, and fishing. To assess effects of these changes on associated biotic communities it is necessary to monitor and report on the status of lotic ecosystems. A variety of stream classification methods are available to assist with these tasks, and such methods attempt to provide a systematic approach to modeling and understanding complex aquatic systems at various spatial and temporal scales. Of the vast number of approaches that exist, it is useful to group them into three main types. The first involves modeling longitudinal species turnover patterns within large drainage basins and relating these patterns to environmental predictors collected at reach and upstream catchment scales; the second uses regionalized hierarchical classification to create multi-scale, spatially homogenous aquatic ecoregions by grouping adjacent catchments together based on environmental similarities; and the third approach groups sites together on the basis of similarities in their environmental conditions both within and between catchments, independent of their geographic location. We review the literature with a focus on more recent classifications to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We identify gaps or problems with the current approaches, and we propose an eight-step heuristic process that may assist with development of more flexible and integrated aquatic classifications based on the current understanding, network thinking, and theoretical underpinnings.

  5. Supply chain risk management: review, classification and future research directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittal, M.L.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to be more efficient, firms have adopted strategies such as outsourcing, global partnerships and lean practices. Although such strategies have tremendous abilities to improve the efficiencies but simultaneously they make the firms vulnerable to market uncertainties, dependencies and disruptions. Moreover, natural calamities and manmade crises have also put negative impact on strategic, operational and tactical performance of supply chains. These factors have triggered the interest of academia and industry to consider the risk issues as prime concerns. To capture the more fine-grained elements of diversified risk issues related to the supply chain we employ a multi-layered top town taxonomy to classify and codify the literature and put forward the probable dimensions for future research. We further study the pool of SCRM literature focusing on coordination, decision making and sector-wise SCRM implementation issues and derive relevant propositions.

  6. Columbia Classification Algorithm of Suicide Assessment (C-CASA): classification of suicidal events in the FDA's pediatric suicidal risk analysis of antidepressants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Kelly; Oquendo, Maria A; Gould, Madelyn; Stanley, Barbara; Davies, Mark

    2007-07-01

    To evaluate the link between antidepressants and suicidal behavior and ideation (suicidality) in youth, adverse events from pediatric clinical trials were classified in order to identify suicidal events. The authors describe the Columbia Classification Algorithm for Suicide Assessment (C-CASA), a standardized suicidal rating system that provided data for the pediatric suicidal risk analysis of antidepressants conducted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Adverse events (N=427) from 25 pediatric antidepressant clinical trials were systematically identified by pharmaceutical companies. Randomly assigned adverse events were evaluated by three of nine independent expert suicidologists using the Columbia classification algorithm. Reliability of the C-CASA ratings and agreement with pharmaceutical company classification were estimated. Twenty-six new, possibly suicidal events (behavior and ideation) that were not originally identified by pharmaceutical companies were identified in the C-CASA, and 12 events originally labeled as suicidal by pharmaceutical companies were eliminated, which resulted in a total of 38 discrepant ratings. For the specific label of "suicide attempt," a relatively low level of agreement was observed between the C-CASA and pharmaceutical company ratings, with the C-CASA reporting a 50% reduction in ratings. Thus, although the C-CASA resulted in the identification of more suicidal events overall, fewer events were classified as suicide attempts. Additionally, the C-CASA ratings were highly reliable (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]=0.89). Utilizing a methodical, anchored approach to categorizing suicidality provides an accurate and comprehensive identification of suicidal events. The FDA's audit of the C-CASA demonstrated excellent transportability of this approach. The Columbia algorithm was used to classify suicidal adverse events in the recent FDA adult antidepressant safety analyses and has also been mandated to be applied to all

  7. Determination of the health of Lunyangwa wetland using Wetland Classification and Risk Assessment Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanda, Elijah M. M.; Mamba, Bhekie B.; Msagati, Titus A. M.; Msilimba, Golden

    2016-04-01

    Wetlands are major sources of various ecological goods and services including storage and distribution of water in space and time which help in ensuring the availability of surface and groundwater throughout the year. However, there still remains a poor understanding of the range of values of water quality parameters that occur in wetlands either in its impacted state or under natural conditions. It was thus imperative to determine the health of Lunyangwa wetland in Mzuzu City in Malawi in order to classify and determine its state. This study used the Escom's Wetland Classification and Risk Assessment Index Field Guide to determine the overall characteristics of Lunyangwa wetland and to calculate its combined Wetland Index Score. Data on site information, field measurements (i.e. EC, pH, temperature and DO) and physical characteristics of Lunyangwa wetland were collected from March, 2013 to February, 2014. Results indicate that Lunyangwa wetland is a largely open water zone which is dominated by free-floating plants on the water surface, beneath surface and emergent in substrate. Furthermore, the wetland can be classified as of a C ecological category (score = 60-80%), which has been moderately modified with moderate risks of the losses and changes occurring in the natural habitat and biota in the wetland. It was observed that the moderate modification and risk were largely because of industrial, agricultural, urban/social catchment stressors on the wetland. This study recommends an integrated and sustainable management approach coupled with continuous monitoring and evaluation of the health of the wetland for all stakeholders in Mzuzu City. This would help to maintain the health of Lunyangwa wetland which is currently at risk of being further modified due to the identified catchment stressors.

  8. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  9. Prognostic value of a novel risk classification of microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hui; Chen, Chuang; Fu, Xu; Yan, Xiaopeng; Jia, Wenjun; Mao, Liang; Jin, Huihan; Qiu, Yudong

    2017-01-17

    The present research aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a novel risk classification of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection. A total of 295 consecutive HCC patients underwent hepatectomy were included in our study. We evaluated the degree of MVI according to the following three features: the number of invaded microvessels (≤5 vs >5), the number of invading carcinoma cells (≤ 50 vs >50), the distance of invasion from tumor edge (≤1 cm vs >1 cm). All patients were divided into three groups according to the three risk factors of MVI: non-MVI group (n=180), low-MVI group (n=60) and high-MVI group (n=55). The overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates of high-MVI group were significantly poorer than those of low-MVI and non-MVI groups (Prisk factors for OS after hepatectomy. High-MVI, type of resection and tumor size were risk factors for RFS. In subgroup analyses, the OS and RFS rates of low-MVI and non-MVI groups were better than high-MVI group regardless of tumor size. In high-MVI group, anatomical liver resection (n=28) showed better OS and RFS rates compared with non-anatomical liver resection (n=29) (P=0.012 and P=0.002). The novel risk classification of MVI based on histopathological features is valuable for predicting prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy.

  10. Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Colleen; Gardoni, Paolo; Harris, Charles E

    2011-09-01

    Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

  11. Modeling and evaluating repeatability and reproducibility of ordinal classifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Mast, J.; van Wieringen, W.N.

    2010-01-01

    This paper argues that currently available methods for the assessment of the repeatability and reproducibility of ordinal classifications are not satisfactory. The paper aims to study whether we can modify a class of models from Item Response Theory, well established for the study of the reliability

  12. Classification of jobs at risk of exposure and protection of pregnancy and lactation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez Dominguez, M.; Perucha Ortega, M.; Sanchez Carmona, G.; Haro Madero, G.; Herrador Cordoba, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the method followed in our hospital for the classification of jobs by defining simple criteria and establishing levels of risk and its application, the result obtained and the implications for the implementation of the RD 298/2009.

  13. Toxic chemical hazard classification and risk acceptance guidelines for use in DOE facilities. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, D.K.; Davis, J.S.; Prowse, J.; Hoffman, P.W.

    1995-01-01

    The concentration-limit guidelines presented in this document apply to airborne releases of chemicals evaluated with respect to human health effects for the purposes of hazard classification and categorization, risk assessment and safety analysis. They apply to all DOE facilities and operations involving the use of potentially hazardous chemicals. The guidelines do not address other nonradiological hazards such as fire, pressure releases (including explosions), and chemical reactivity, but the guidelines are applicable to hazardous chemical releases resulting from these events. This report presents the subcommittee's evaluation and recommendations regarding analyses of accidentally released toxic chemicals. The premise upon which these recommendations are based is that the mechanism of action of toxic chemicals is fundamentally different from that associated with radionuclides, with the exception of carcinogens. The recommendations reported herein are restricted to the airborne pathway because in an accident scenario this typically represents the most immediately significant route of public exposure. However, the subcommittee recognizes that exposure to chemicals through other pathways, in particular waterborne, can have significant impacts on human health and the environment. Although there are a number of chemicals for which absorption through the skin can contribute measurably to the total dose in chronic (e.g., occupational) exposure situations, this pathway has not been considered for the acute exposure scenarios considered in this report. Later studies. will address these issues if it appears desirable

  14. Long-term Prostate-specific Antigen Velocity in Improved Classification of Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Bojesen, Stig E; Kamstrup, Pia R

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether adding long-term prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV) to baseline PSA values improves classification of prostate cancer (PCa) risk and mortality in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether long-term PSAV improves classification of PCa risk...

  15. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  16. Potency values from the local lymph node assay: application to classification, labelling and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveless, S E; Api, A-M; Crevel, R W R; Debruyne, E; Gamer, A; Jowsey, I R; Kern, P; Kimber, I; Lea, L; Lloyd, P; Mehmood, Z; Steiling, W; Veenstra, G; Woolhiser, M; Hennes, C

    2010-02-01

    Hundreds of chemicals are contact allergens but there remains a need to identify and characterise accurately skin sensitising hazards. The purpose of this review was fourfold. First, when using the local lymph node assay (LLNA), consider whether an exposure concentration (EC3 value) lower than 100% can be defined and used as a threshold criterion for classification and labelling. Second, is there any reason to revise the recommendation of a previous ECETOC Task Force regarding specific EC3 values used for sub-categorisation of substances based upon potency? Third, what recommendations can be made regarding classification and labelling of preparations under GHS? Finally, consider how to integrate LLNA data into risk assessment and provide a rationale for using concentration responses and corresponding no-effect concentrations. Although skin sensitising chemicals having high EC3 values may represent only relatively low risks to humans, it is not possible currently to define an EC3 value below 100% that would serve as an appropriate threshold for classification and labelling. The conclusion drawn from reviewing the use of distinct categories for characterising contact allergens was that the most appropriate, science-based classification of contact allergens according to potency is one in which four sub-categories are identified: 'extreme', 'strong', 'moderate' and 'weak'. Since draining lymph node cell proliferation is related causally and quantitatively to potency, LLNA EC3 values are recommended for determination of a no expected sensitisation induction level that represents the first step in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K

    2008-01-01

    subjects with estimated risk below 5%. During the following 9.5 years the composite end point of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke (CEP) occurred in 204 subjects. CEP was predicted in all three groups by UACR (HRs: 2.1, 2.1 and 2.3 per 10-fold increase, all P...CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population....

  18. Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

    2017-11-01

    Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  19. Automated otolith image classification with multiple views: an evaluation on Sciaenidae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, J Y; Chu, C; Chong, V C; Dhillon, S K; Loh, K H

    2016-08-01

    Combined multiple 2D views (proximal, anterior and ventral aspects) of the sagittal otolith are proposed here as a method to capture shape information for fish classification. Classification performance of single view compared with combined 2D views show improved classification accuracy of the latter, for nine species of Sciaenidae. The effects of shape description methods (shape indices, Procrustes analysis and elliptical Fourier analysis) on classification performance were evaluated. Procrustes analysis and elliptical Fourier analysis perform better than shape indices when single view is considered, but all perform equally well with combined views. A generic content-based image retrieval (CBIR) system that ranks dissimilarity (Procrustes distance) of otolith images was built to search query images without the need for detailed information of side (left or right), aspect (proximal or distal) and direction (positive or negative) of the otolith. Methods for the development of this automated classification system are discussed. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  20. Angiotensinogen gene polymorphism predicts hypertension, and iridological constitutional classification enhances the risk for hypertension in Koreans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Joo-Jang; Hwang, Woo-Jun; Hong, Seung-Heon; Jeong, Hyun-Ja; Lee, Hye-Jung; Kim, Hyung-Min; Um, Jae-Young

    2008-05-01

    This study investigated the relationship between iridological constitution and angiotensinogen (AGN) gene polymorphism in hypertensives. In addition to angiotensin converting enzyme gene, AGN genotype is also one of the most well studied genetic markers of hypertension. Furthermore, iridology, one of complementary and alternative medicine, is the diagnosis of the medical conditions through noting irregularities of the pigmentation in the iris. Iridological constitution has a strong familial aggregation and is implicated in heredity. Therefore, the study classified 87 hypertensive patients with familial history of cerebral infarction and controls (n = 88) according to Iris constitution, and determined AGN genotype. As a result, the AGN/TT genotype was associated with hypertension (chi2 = 13.413, p iridological constitutional classification increased the relative risk for hypertension in the subjects with AGN/T allele. These results suggest that AGN polymorphism predicts hypertension, and iridological constitutional classification enhances the risk for hypertension associated with AGN/T in a Korean population.

  1. Measurement of ECG abnormalities and cardiovascular risk classification: a cohort study of primary care patients in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, A.; Bots, M.L.; Rutten, F.H.; den Ruijter, H.M.; Numans, M.E.; Vaartjes, I.

    2015-01-01

    Background: GPs need accurate tools for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment. Abnormalities in resting electrocardiograms (ECGs) relate to increased CV risk. Aim: To determine whether measurement of ECG abnormalities on top of established risk estimation (SCORE) improves CV risk classification in a

  2. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  3. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  4. A tool for urban soundscape evaluation applying Support Vector Machines for developing a soundscape classification model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torija, Antonio J; Ruiz, Diego P; Ramos-Ridao, Angel F

    2014-06-01

    To ensure appropriate soundscape management in urban environments, the urban-planning authorities need a range of tools that enable such a task to be performed. An essential step during the management of urban areas from a sound standpoint should be the evaluation of the soundscape in such an area. In this sense, it has been widely acknowledged that a subjective and acoustical categorization of a soundscape is the first step to evaluate it, providing a basis for designing or adapting it to match people's expectations as well. In this sense, this work proposes a model for automatic classification of urban soundscapes. This model is intended for the automatic classification of urban soundscapes based on underlying acoustical and perceptual criteria. Thus, this classification model is proposed to be used as a tool for a comprehensive urban soundscape evaluation. Because of the great complexity associated with the problem, two machine learning techniques, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Support Vector Machines trained with Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), are implemented in developing model classification. The results indicate that the SMO model outperforms the SVM model in the specific task of soundscape classification. With the implementation of the SMO algorithm, the classification model achieves an outstanding performance (91.3% of instances correctly classified). © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Classification System for Identifying Women at Risk for Altered Partial Breast Irradiation Recommendations After Breast Magnetic Resonance Imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowalchik, Kristin V.; Vallow, Laura A.; McDonough, Michelle; Thomas, Colleen S.; Heckman, Michael G.; Peterson, Jennifer L.; Adkisson, Cameron D.; Serago, Christopher; McLaughlin, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To study the utility of preoperative breast MRI for partial breast irradiation (PBI) patient selection, using multivariable analysis of significant risk factors to create a classification rule. Methods and Materials: Between 2002 and 2009, 712 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer underwent preoperative bilateral breast MRI at Mayo Clinic Florida. Of this cohort, 566 were retrospectively deemed eligible for PBI according to the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Protocol B-39 inclusion criteria using physical examination, mammogram, and/or ultrasound. Magnetic resonance images were then reviewed to determine their impact on patient eligibility. The patient and tumor characteristics were evaluated to determine risk factors for altered PBI eligibility after MRI and to create a classification rule. Results: Of the 566 patients initially eligible for PBI, 141 (25%) were found ineligible because of pathologically proven MRI findings. Magnetic resonance imaging detected additional ipsilateral breast cancer in 118 (21%). Of these, 62 (11%) had more extensive disease than originally noted before MRI, and 64 (11%) had multicentric disease. Contralateral breast cancer was detected in 28 (5%). Four characteristics were found to be significantly associated with PBI ineligibility after MRI on multivariable analysis: premenopausal status (P=.021), detection by palpation (P<.001), first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer (P=.033), and lobular histology (P=.002). Risk factors were assigned a score of 0-2. The risk of altered PBI eligibility from MRI based on number of risk factors was 0:18%; 1:22%; 2:42%; 3:65%. Conclusions: Preoperative bilateral breast MRI altered the PBI recommendations for 25% of women. Women who may undergo PBI should be considered for breast MRI, especially those with lobular histology or with 2 or more of the following risk factors: premenopausal, detection by palpation, and first-degree relative with a history of

  6. Efficacy of the Kyoto Classification of Gastritis in Identifying Patients at High Risk for Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Mitsushige; Ban, Hiromitsu; Ichikawa, Hitomi; Sahara, Shu; Otsuka, Taketo; Inatomi, Osamu; Bamba, Shigeki; Furuta, Takahisa; Andoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    Objective The Kyoto gastritis classification categorizes the endoscopic characteristics of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection-associated gastritis and identifies patterns associated with a high risk of gastric cancer. We investigated its efficacy, comparing scores in patients with H. pylori-associated gastritis and with gastric cancer. Methods A total of 1,200 patients with H. pylori-positive gastritis alone (n=932), early-stage H. pylori-positive gastric cancer (n=189), and successfully treated H. pylori-negative cancer (n=79) were endoscopically graded according to the Kyoto gastritis classification for atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, fold hypertrophy, nodularity, and diffuse redness. Results The prevalence of O-II/O-III-type atrophy according to the Kimura-Takemoto classification in early-stage H. pylori-positive gastric cancer and successfully treated H. pylori-negative cancer groups was 45.1%, which was significantly higher than in subjects with gastritis alone (12.7%, pgastritis scores of atrophy and intestinal metaplasia in the H. pylori-positive cancer group were significantly higher than in subjects with gastritis alone (all pgastritis classification may thus be useful for detecting these patients.

  7. Evaluating Intervention Effects in a Diagnostic Classification Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madison, Matthew J.; Bradshaw, Laine

    2018-01-01

    The evaluation of intervention effects is an important objective of educational research. One way to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention is to conduct an experiment that assigns individuals to control and treatment groups. In the context of pretest/posttest designed studies, this is referred to as a control-group pretest/posttest design.…

  8. Risk-informed Analytical Approaches to Concentration Averaging for the Purpose of Waste Classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esh, D.W.; Pinkston, K.E.; Barr, C.S.; Bradford, A.H.; Ridge, A.Ch.

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has developed a concentration averaging approach and guidance for the review of Department of Energy (DOE) non-HLW determinations. Although the approach was focused on this specific application, concentration averaging is generally applicable to waste classification and thus has implications for waste management decisions as discussed in more detail in this paper. In the United States, radioactive waste has historically been classified into various categories for the purpose of ensuring that the disposal system selected is commensurate with the hazard of the waste such that public health and safety will be protected. However, the risk from the near-surface disposal of radioactive waste is not solely a function of waste concentration but is also a function of the volume (quantity) of waste and its accessibility. A risk-informed approach to waste classification for near-surface disposal of low-level waste would consider the specific characteristics of the waste, the quantity of material, and the disposal system features that limit accessibility to the waste. NRC staff has developed example analytical approaches to estimate waste concentration, and therefore waste classification, for waste disposed in facilities or with configurations that were not anticipated when the regulation for the disposal of commercial low-level waste (i.e. 10 CFR Part 61) was developed. (authors)

  9. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  10. Analysis of genetic divergence for classification and evaluation of 37 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ajl yemi

    2011-12-19

    Dec 19, 2011 ... evaluation of 37 productive performances in all 54 oval cocoon strains of Iran ... strains, indicating that they might be suitable for future crossings, maintenance of ... Japan, Korea and India, the total number of mulberry and.

  11. Analysis of genetic divergence for classification and evaluation of 37 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studied strains are ranked based on the average of evaluation index method and ... of silkworm B. mori showed different performances based on productive traits. ... for future crossings, maintenance of parental strains and hybridizations with ...

  12. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  13. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  14. Performance Evaluation of Frequency Transform Based Block Classification of Compound Image Segmentation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwyn, Ebenezer Juliet; Florinabel, D. Jemi

    2018-04-01

    Compound image segmentation plays a vital role in the compression of computer screen images. Computer screen images are images which are mixed with textual, graphical, or pictorial contents. In this paper, we present a comparison of two transform based block classification of compound images based on metrics like speed of classification, precision and recall rate. Block based classification approaches normally divide the compound images into fixed size blocks of non-overlapping in nature. Then frequency transform like Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) are applied over each block. Mean and standard deviation are computed for each 8 × 8 block and are used as features set to classify the compound images into text/graphics and picture/background block. The classification accuracy of block classification based segmentation techniques are measured by evaluation metrics like precision and recall rate. Compound images of smooth background and complex background images containing text of varying size, colour and orientation are considered for testing. Experimental evidence shows that the DWT based segmentation provides significant improvement in recall rate and precision rate approximately 2.3% than DCT based segmentation with an increase in block classification time for both smooth and complex background images.

  15. Rock slope instabilities in Norway: First systematic hazard and risk classification of 22 unstable rock slopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhme, Martina; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Oppikofer, Thierry; Penna, Ivanna

    2016-04-01

    Unstable rock slopes that can cause large failures of the rock-avalanche type have been mapped in Norway for almost two decades. Four sites have earlier been characterized as high-risk objects based on expertise of few researchers. This resulted in installing continuous monitoring systems and set-up of an early-warning system for those four sites. Other unstable rock slopes have not been ranked related to their hazard or risk. There are ca. 300 other sites known of which 70 sites were installed for periodic deformation measurements using multiple techniques (Global Navigation Satellite Systems, extensometers, measurement bolts, and others). In 2012 a systematic hazard and risk classification system for unstable rock slopes was established in Norway and the mapping approach adapted to that in 2013. Now, the first 22 sites were classified for hazard, consequences and risk using this classification system. The selection of the first group of sites to be classified was based on an assumed high hazard or risk and importance given to the sites by Norwegian media and the public. Nine of the classified 22 unstable rock slopes are large sites that deform inhomogeneously or are strongly broken up in individual blocks. This suggests that different failure scenarios are possible that need to be analyzed individually. A total of 35 failure scenarios for those nine unstable rock slopes were considered. The hazard analyses were based on 9 geological parameters defined in the classification system. The classification system will be presented based on the Gamanjunni unstable rock slope. This slope has a well developed back scarp that exposes 150 m preceding displacement. The lateral limits of the unstable slope are clearly visible in the morphology and InSAR displacement data. There have been no single structures observed that allow sliding kinematically. The lower extend of the displacing rock mass is clearly defined in InSAR data and by a zone of higher rock fall activity. Yearly

  16. [Nursing care mapping for patients at risk of falls in the Nursing Interventions Classification].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzia, Melissa de Freitas; Almeida, Miriam de Abreu; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

    2014-08-01

    Identifying the prescribed nursing care for hospitalized patients at risk of falls and comparing them with the interventions of the Nursing Interventions Classifications (NIC). A cross-sectional study carried out in a university hospital in southern Brazil. It was a retrospective data collection in the nursing records system. The sample consisted of 174 adult patients admitted to medical and surgical units with the Nursing Diagnosis of Risk for falls. The prescribed care were compared with the NIC interventions by the cross-mapping method. The most prevalent care were the following: keeping the bed rails, guiding patients/family regarding the risks and prevention of falls, keeping the bell within reach of patients, and maintaining patients' belongings nearby, mapped in the interventions Environmental Management: safety and Fall Prevention. The treatment prescribed in clinical practice was corroborated by the NIC reference.

  17. Technical Evaluation Report 5: Classification of DE Delivery Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane Belyk

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available For their optimal use in distance education (DE, online educational applications need to be integrated within a comprehensive course management system (CMS. Such systems are server-based software that supports the development, delivery, administration, and evaluation of online learning environments. The selection of an appropriate CMS should be considered from the multiple perspectives of the student, the course developer, the course instructor/ tutor, the technical support staff, and the DE institution’s administration. The current evaluation of CMS packages was conducted by a team of individuals with experience and contacts in relation to each of these DE user types. The report compares a series of CMS packages in terms of their range of features, and in relation to their satisfaction of international online education standards.

  18. Quality Evaluation of Land-Cover Classification Using Convolutional Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhao, Y.; Luo, F.; Ma, W.; Yu, F.

    2018-04-01

    Land-cover classification is one of the most important products of earth observation, which focuses mainly on profiling the physical characters of the land surface with temporal and distribution attributes and contains the information of both natural and man-made coverage elements, such as vegetation, soil, glaciers, rivers, lakes, marsh wetlands and various man-made structures. In recent years, the amount of high-resolution remote sensing data has increased sharply. Accordingly, the volume of land-cover classification products increases, as well as the need to evaluate such frequently updated products that is a big challenge. Conventionally, the automatic quality evaluation of land-cover classification is made through pixel-based classifying algorithms, which lead to a much trickier task and consequently hard to keep peace with the required updating frequency. In this paper, we propose a novel quality evaluation approach for evaluating the land-cover classification by a scene classification method Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model. By learning from remote sensing data, those randomly generated kernels that serve as filter matrixes evolved to some operators that has similar functions to man-crafted operators, like Sobel operator or Canny operator, and there are other kernels learned by the CNN model that are much more complex and can't be understood as existing filters. The method using CNN approach as the core algorithm serves quality-evaluation tasks well since it calculates a bunch of outputs which directly represent the image's membership grade to certain classes. An automatic quality evaluation approach for the land-cover DLG-DOM coupling data (DLG for Digital Line Graphic, DOM for Digital Orthophoto Map) will be introduced in this paper. The CNN model as an robustness method for image evaluation, then brought out the idea of an automatic quality evaluation approach for land-cover classification. Based on this experiment, new ideas of quality evaluation

  19. A new qualitative pattern classification of shear wave elastograghy for solid breast mass evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cong, Rui, E-mail: congrui2684@163.com; Li, Jing, E-mail: lijing@sj-hospital.org; Guo, Song, E-mail: 21751735@qq.com

    2017-02-15

    Highlights: • Qualitative SWE classification proposed here was significantly better than quantitative SWE parameters. • Qualitative classification proposed here was better than the classification proposed before. • Qualitative classification proposed here could obtain higher specificity without a loss of sensitivity. - Abstract: Objectives: To examine the efficacy of qualitative shear wave elastography (SWE) in the classification and evaluation of solid breast masses, and to compare this method with conventional ultrasonograghy (US), quantitative SWE parameters and qualitative SWE classification proposed before. Methods: From April 2015 to March 2016, 314 consecutive females with 325 breast masses who decided to undergo core needle biopsy and/or surgical biopsy were enrolled. Conventional US and SWE were previously performed in all enrolled subjects. Each mass was classified by two different qualitative classifications. One was established in our study, herein named the Qual1. Qual1 could classify the SWE images into five color patterns by the visual evaluations: Color pattern 1 (homogeneous pattern); Color pattern 2 (comparative homogeneous pattern); Color pattern 3 (irregularly heterogeneous pattern); Color pattern 4 (intralesional echo pattern); and Color pattern 5 (the stiff rim sign pattern). The second qualitative classification was named Qual2 here, and included a four-color overlay pattern classification (Tozaki and Fukuma, Acta Radiologica, 2011). The Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessment and quantitative SWE parameters were recorded. Diagnostic performances of conventional US, SWE parameters, and combinations of US and SWE parameters were compared. Results: With pathological results as the gold standard, of the 325 examined breast masses, 139 (42.77%) samples were malignant and 186 (57.23%) were benign. The Qual1 showed a higher Az value than the Qual2 and quantitative SWE parameters (all P < 0.05). When applying Qual1

  20. A new qualitative pattern classification of shear wave elastograghy for solid breast mass evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cong, Rui; Li, Jing; Guo, Song

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Qualitative SWE classification proposed here was significantly better than quantitative SWE parameters. • Qualitative classification proposed here was better than the classification proposed before. • Qualitative classification proposed here could obtain higher specificity without a loss of sensitivity. - Abstract: Objectives: To examine the efficacy of qualitative shear wave elastography (SWE) in the classification and evaluation of solid breast masses, and to compare this method with conventional ultrasonograghy (US), quantitative SWE parameters and qualitative SWE classification proposed before. Methods: From April 2015 to March 2016, 314 consecutive females with 325 breast masses who decided to undergo core needle biopsy and/or surgical biopsy were enrolled. Conventional US and SWE were previously performed in all enrolled subjects. Each mass was classified by two different qualitative classifications. One was established in our study, herein named the Qual1. Qual1 could classify the SWE images into five color patterns by the visual evaluations: Color pattern 1 (homogeneous pattern); Color pattern 2 (comparative homogeneous pattern); Color pattern 3 (irregularly heterogeneous pattern); Color pattern 4 (intralesional echo pattern); and Color pattern 5 (the stiff rim sign pattern). The second qualitative classification was named Qual2 here, and included a four-color overlay pattern classification (Tozaki and Fukuma, Acta Radiologica, 2011). The Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessment and quantitative SWE parameters were recorded. Diagnostic performances of conventional US, SWE parameters, and combinations of US and SWE parameters were compared. Results: With pathological results as the gold standard, of the 325 examined breast masses, 139 (42.77%) samples were malignant and 186 (57.23%) were benign. The Qual1 showed a higher Az value than the Qual2 and quantitative SWE parameters (all P < 0.05). When applying Qual1

  1. A new qualitative pattern classification of shear wave elastograghy for solid breast mass evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Rui; Li, Jing; Guo, Song

    2017-02-01

    To examine the efficacy of qualitative shear wave elastography (SWE) in the classification and evaluation of solid breast masses, and to compare this method with conventional ultrasonograghy (US), quantitative SWE parameters and qualitative SWE classification proposed before. From April 2015 to March 2016, 314 consecutive females with 325 breast masses who decided to undergo core needle biopsy and/or surgical biopsy were enrolled. Conventional US and SWE were previously performed in all enrolled subjects. Each mass was classified by two different qualitative classifications. One was established in our study, herein named the Qual1. Qual1 could classify the SWE images into five color patterns by the visual evaluations: Color pattern 1 (homogeneous pattern); Color pattern 2 (comparative homogeneous pattern); Color pattern 3 (irregularly heterogeneous pattern); Color pattern 4 (intralesional echo pattern); and Color pattern 5 (the stiff rim sign pattern). The second qualitative classification was named Qual2 here, and included a four-color overlay pattern classification (Tozaki and Fukuma, Acta Radiologica, 2011). The Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessment and quantitative SWE parameters were recorded. Diagnostic performances of conventional US, SWE parameters, and combinations of US and SWE parameters were compared. With pathological results as the gold standard, of the 325 examined breast masses, 139 (42.77%) samples were malignant and 186 (57.23%) were benign. The Qual1 showed a higher Az value than the Qual2 and quantitative SWE parameters (all Pbreast mass diagnoses. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Dengue disease severity in Indonesian children: An evaluation of the World Health Organization classification system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.E. Setiati (Tatty); A.T.A. Mairuhu; P. Koraka (Penelope); M. Supriatna (Mohamad); M.R. Mac Gillavry (Melvin); D.P.M. Brandjes (Dees); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); J.W.M. van der Meer (Jos); E.C.M. van Gorp (Eric); A. Soemantri (Augustinus)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Dengue disease severity is usually classified using criteria set up by the World Health Organization (WHO). We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the WHO classification system and modifications to this system, and evaluated their potential practical usefulness.

  3. An Ontology to Support the Classification of Learning Material in an Organizational Learning Environment: An Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valaski, Joselaine; Reinehr, Sheila; Malucelli, Andreia

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research was to evaluate whether ontology integrated in an organizational learning environment may support the automatic learning material classification in a specific knowledge area. Design/methodology/approach: An ontology for recommending learning material was integrated in the organizational learning environment…

  4. [Implementation of cytology images classification--the Bethesda 2001 System--in a group of screened women from Podlaskie region--effect evaluation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zbroch, Tomasz; Knapp, Paweł Grzegorz; Knapp, Piotr Andrzej

    2007-09-01

    Increasing knowledge concerning carcinogenesis within cervical epithelium has forced us to make continues modifications of cytology classification of the cervical smears. Eventually, new descriptions of the submicroscopic cytomorphological abnormalities have enabled the implementation of Bethesda System which was meant to take place of the former Papanicolaou classification although temporarily both are sometimes used simultaneously. The aim of this study was to compare results of these two classification systems in the aspect of diagnostic accuracy verified by further tests of the diagnostic algorithm for the cervical lesion evaluation. The study was conducted in the group of women selected from general population, the criteria being the place of living and cervical cancer age risk group, in the consecutive periods of mass screening in Podlaski region. The performed diagnostic tests have been based on the commonly used algorithm, as well as identical laboratory and methodological conditions. Performed assessment revealed comparable diagnostic accuracy of both analyzing classifications, verified by histological examination, although with marked higher specificity for dysplastic lesions with decreased number of HSIL results and increased diagnosis of LSILs. Higher number of performed colposcopies and biopsies were an additional consequence of TBS classification. Results based on Bethesda System made it possible to find the sources and reasons of abnormalities with much greater precision, which enabled causing agent treatment. Two evaluated cytology classification systems, although not much different, depicted higher potential of TBS and better, more effective communication between cytology laboratory and gynecologist, making reasonable implementation of The Bethesda System in the daily cytology screening work.

  5. Evaluation of the histopathological classifications of American cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Bittencourt

    1991-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the reliability of histopathological classifications of cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis the authors compared the histopathological patterns of two biopsies taken simultaneously from the same patient, and classified the material according to Ridley et al. (1980, to Magalhães et al. (1986a, and to a more simplified classification with only three patterns. District histopathological aspects, were observed in different lesions or even in the same lesion. The authors concluded that histopathological patterns do not represent a stage of tegumentary leishmaniasis, thus they can not be correlated with prognosis and therapeutical response as suggested in the literature.

  6. A classification of risk factors in serious juvenile offenders and the relation between patterns of risk factors and recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Eva; Brand, Eddy; Bullens, Ruud; Van Marle, Hjalmar

    2010-02-01

    There has been a lot of research on risk factors for recidivism among juvenile offenders, in general, and on individual risk factors, but less focus on subgroups of serious juvenile offenders and prediction of recidivism within these. To find an optimal classification of risk items and to test the predictive value of the resultant factors with respect to severity of recidivism among serious juvenile offenders. Seventy static and dynamic risk factors in 1154 juvenile offenders were registered with the Juvenile Forensic Profile. Recidivism data were collected on 728 of these offenders with a time at risk of at least 2 years. After factor analysis, independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the factors for violent or serious recidivism. A nine-factor solution best accounted for the data. The factors were: antisocial behaviour during treatment, sexual problems, family problems, axis-1 psychopathology, offence characteristics, conscience and empathy, intellectual and social capacities, social network, and substance abuse. Regression analysis showed that the factors antisocial behaviour during treatment, family problems and axis-1 psychopathology were associated with seriousness of recidivism. The significance of family problems and antisocial behaviour during treatments suggest that specific attention to these factors may be important in reducing recidivism. The fact that antisocial behaviour during treatment consists mainly of dynamic risk factors is hopeful as these can be influenced by treatment. Consideration of young offenders by subgroup rather than as a homogenous population is likely to yield the best information about risk of serious re-offending and the management of that risk.

  7. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  8. EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL OF SATELLITE HYPERSPECTRAL RESURS-P DATA FOR FOREST SPECIES CLASSIFICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Brovkina

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based hyperspectral sensors provide spectroscopic information in relatively narrow contiguous spectral bands over a large area which can be useful in forestry applications. This study evaluates the potential of satellite hyperspectral Resurs-P data for forest species mapping. Firstly, a comparative study between top of canopy reflectance obtained from the Resurs-P, from the airborne hyperspectral scanner CASI and from field measurement (FieldSpec ASD 4 on selected vegetation cover types is conducted. Secondly, Resurs-P data is tested in classification and verification of different forest species compartments. The results demonstrate that satellite hyperspectral Resurs-P sensor can produce useful informational and show good performance for forest species classification comparable both with forestry map and classification from airborne CASI data, but also indicate that developments in pre-processing steps are still required to improve the mapping level.

  9. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  10. Evaluation of rock classifications at B. C. Rail tumbler ridge tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Peter K.; Mackay, C.; Gale, A. D.

    1986-10-01

    Construction of four single track railway tunnels through sedimentary rocks in central British Columbia, Canada, provided an excellent opportunity to compare various rock mass classification systems and to evaluate their applicability to the local geology. The tunnels were excavated by conventional drilling and blasting techniques and supported primarily with rock bolts and shotcrete, and with steel sets in some sections. After a brief project description including tunnel construction techniques, local geology and groundwater conditions, the data collection and filed mapping procedure is reviewed. Four rock mass classification systems ( RQD, RSR, RMR, Q) for empirical tunnel design are reviewed and relevant factors for the data interpretation are discussed. In comparing and evaluating the performance of these classification systems three aspects received special attention. The tunnel support predicted by the various systems was compared to the support installed, a unique correlation between the two most useful and most frequently applied classifications, the RMR and Q systems, was established and assessed, and finally, the non-support limit and size effect were evaluated. It is concluded that the Q-system best predicted the required tunnel support and that the RMR was only adequate after adjustment for the influence of opening size. Correction equations for opening size effects are presented for the RMR system. The RSR and RQD systems are not recommended for empirical tunnel design.

  11. Complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis in adults: risk classification for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasbun, Rodrigo; Vikram, Holenarasipur R; Barakat, Lydia A; Buenconsejo, Joan; Quagliarello, Vincent J

    2003-04-16

    Complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis causes significant morbidity and mortality in adults. Lack of valid data regarding estimation of prognosis makes management of this condition difficult. To derive and externally validate a prognostic classification system for adults with complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis. Retrospective observational cohort study conducted from January 1990 to January 2000 at 7 Connecticut hospitals among 513 patients older than 16 years who experienced complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis and who were divided into derivation (n = 259) and validation (n = 254) cohorts. All-cause mortality at 6 months after baseline. In the derivation and validation cohorts, the 6-month mortality rates were 25% and 26%, respectively. Five baseline features were independently associated with 6-month mortality (comorbidity [P =.03], abnormal mental status [P =.02], moderate to severe congestive heart failure [P =.01], bacterial etiology other than viridans streptococci [Pclassification system. In the derivation cohort, patients were classified into 4 groups with increasing risk for 6-month mortality: 5%, 15%, 31%, and 59% (Pendocarditis can be accurately risk stratified using baseline features into 4 groups of prognostic severity. This prognostic classification system might be useful for facilitating management decisions.

  12. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  13. Evaluation of nuclear power plant operating procedures classifications and interfaces: Problems and techniques for improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, V.E.; Radford, L.R.

    1987-02-01

    This report presents activities and findings of a project designed to evaluate current practices and problems related to procedure classification schemes and procedure interfaces in commercial nuclear power plants. The phrase ''procedure classification scheme'' refers to how plant operating procedures are categorized and indexed (e.g., normal, abnormal, emergency operating procedures). The term ''procedure interface'' refers to how reactor operators are instructed to transition within and between procedures. The project consisted of four key tasks, including (1) a survey of literature regarding problems associated with procedure classifications and interfaces, as well as techniques for overcoming them; (2) interviews with experts in the nuclear industry to discuss the appropriate scope of different classes of operating procedures and techniques for managing interfaces between them; (3) a reanalysis of data gathered about nuclear power plant normal operating and off-normal operating procedures in a related project, ''Program Plan for Assessing and Upgrading Operating Procedures for Nuclear Power Plants''; and (4) solicitation of the comments and expert opinions of a peer review group on the draft project report and on proposed techniques for resolving classification and interface issues. In addition to describing these activities and their results, recommendations for NRC and utility actions to address procedure classification and interface problems are offered

  14. Evaluation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant classification of systems, structures and components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-07-01

    A review of the classification system for systems, structures, and components at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) was performed using the WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR) and Bechtel document D-76-D-03 as primary source documents. The regulations of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) covering ''Disposal of High level Radioactive Wastes in Geologic Repositories,'' 10 CFR 60, and the regulations relevant to nuclear power plant siting and construction (10 CFR 50, 51, 100) were used as standards to evaluate the WIPP design classification system, although it is recognized that the US Department of Energy (DOE) is not required to comply with these NRC regulations in the design and construction of WIPP. The DOE General Design Criteria Manual (DOE Order 6430.1) and the Safety Analysis and Review System for AL Operation document (AL 54f81.1A) were reviewed in part. This report includes a discussion of the historical basis for nuclear power plant requirements, a review of WIPP and nuclear power plant classification bases, and a comparison of the codes and standards applicable to each quality level. Observations made during the review of the WIPP SAR are noted in the text of this reoport. The conclusions reached by this review are: WIPP classification methodology is comparable to corresponding nuclear power procedures. The classification levels assigned to WIPP systems are qualitatively the same as those assigned to nuclear power plant systems

  15. Analysis and Evaluation of IKONOS Image Fusion Algorithm Based on Land Cover Classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xia; JING; Yan; BAO

    2015-01-01

    Different fusion algorithm has its own advantages and limitations,so it is very difficult to simply evaluate the good points and bad points of the fusion algorithm. Whether an algorithm was selected to fuse object images was also depended upon the sensor types and special research purposes. Firstly,five fusion methods,i. e. IHS,Brovey,PCA,SFIM and Gram-Schmidt,were briefly described in the paper. And then visual judgment and quantitative statistical parameters were used to assess the five algorithms. Finally,in order to determine which one is the best suitable fusion method for land cover classification of IKONOS image,the maximum likelihood classification( MLC) was applied using the above five fusion images. The results showed that the fusion effect of SFIM transform and Gram-Schmidt transform were better than the other three image fusion methods in spatial details improvement and spectral information fidelity,and Gram-Schmidt technique was superior to SFIM transform in the aspect of expressing image details. The classification accuracy of the fused image using Gram-Schmidt and SFIM algorithms was higher than that of the other three image fusion methods,and the overall accuracy was greater than 98%. The IHS-fused image classification accuracy was the lowest,the overall accuracy and kappa coefficient were 83. 14% and 0. 76,respectively. Thus the IKONOS fusion images obtained by the Gram-Schmidt and SFIM were better for improving the land cover classification accuracy.

  16. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  17. Transmission tower classification based on landslide risk map generated by Geographical Information System (GIS) at Cameron Highlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazwani N K; Rohayu C O; Fathoni U; Baharuddin, Inz

    2013-01-01

    Transmission tower is usually locates at remote area which is covered by hilly topography. Landslide is mainly occurring at hilly area and causing failure to the tower structure. This phenomenon subsequently will affect the national electricity supply. A landslide risk hazard map is generated using Geographical Information System (GIS). Risk classification is introduced to initiate the monitoring process along Jor-Bintang transmission line, Cameron Highland, Pahang. The classification has been divided into three categories, which are low, medium and high. This method can be applied in slope monitoring activities since all towers have been classified based on their risk level. Therefore, maintenance schedule can be planned smoothly and efficiently.

  18. Transmission tower classification based on landslide risk Map generated by Geographical Information System (GIS) at Cameron Highlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazwani N K; Rohayu C O; Fathoni U; Baharuddin, I N Z; Azwin Z A

    2013-01-01

    Transmission tower is usually locates at remote area which is covered by hilly topography. Landslide is mainly occurring at hilly area and causing failure to the tower structure. This phenomenon subsequently will affect the national electricity supply. A landslide risk hazard map is generated using Geographical Information System (GIS). Risk classification is introduced to initiate the monitoring process along Jor-Bintang transmission line, Cameron Highland, Pahang. The classification has been divided into three categories, which are low, medium and high. This method can be applied in slope monitoring activities since all towers have been classified based on their risk level. Therefore, maintenance schedule can be planned smoothly and efficiently.

  19. Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

  20. Polyp Morphology: An Interobserver Evaluation for the Paris Classification Among International Experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Sascha C.; Hazewinkel, Y.; East, James E.; van Leerdam, Monique E.; Rastogi, Amit; Pellisé, Maria; Sanduleanu-Dascalescu, Silvia; Bastiaansen, Barbara A. J.; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The Paris classification is an international classification system for describing polyp morphology. Thus far, the validity and reproducibility of this classification have not been assessed. We aimed to determine the interobserver agreement for the Paris classification among seven Western

  1. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  2. Evaluating and comparing imaging techniques: a review and classification of study designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedman, L.S.

    1987-01-01

    The design of studies to evaluate and compare imaging techniques are reviewed. Thirteen principles for the design of studies of diagnostic accuracy are given. Because of the 'independence principle' these studies are not able directly to evaluate the contribution of a technique to clinical management. For the latter, the 'clinical value' study design is recommended. A classification of study designs is proposed in parallel with the standard classification of clinical trials. Studies of diagnostic accuracy are analogous to Phase II, whereas studies evaluating the contribution to clinical management correspond to the Phase III category. Currently the majority of published studies employ the Phase II design. More emphasis on Phase III studies is required. (author)

  3. Medical risk assessment in dentistry: use of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clough, S; Shehabi, Z; Morgan, C

    2016-02-12

    Medical risk assessment is essential to safe patient management and the delivery of appropriate dental care. The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) Classification is widely used within medicine and dentistry, but has received significant criticism. This is the first UK survey to assess the consistency of medical risk assessment in dentistry. (i) To determine the use and consistency of the ASA PS among dentists and anaesthetists. (ii) To consider the appropriateness of the ASA PS in relation to dental treatment planning and delivery of care. A cross-sectional online questionnaire was distributed to anaesthetists and dental practitioners in general practice, community and hospital dental services. Questions focused on professional backgrounds, use of the ASA PS, alternative approaches to risk assessment in everyday practice and scoring of eight hypothetical patients using ASA PS. There were 101 responses, 82 were complete. Anaesthetists recorded ASA PS score more frequently than dental practitioners and found it more useful. Inconsistencies were evident in the assignment of ASA PS scores both between and within professional groups. Many dental practitioners did not use or find ASA PS helpful, with significant inconsistencies in its use. An awareness of alternative assessment scales may be useful across settings. Accepting its limitations, it would be helpful for all dentists to be educated in ASA PS and its use in medical risk assessment, particularly in relation to conscious sedation.

  4. Malignancy Risk Assessment in Patients with Thyroid Nodules Using Classification and Regression Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shokouh Taghipour Zahir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. We sought to investigate the utility of classification and regression trees (CART classifier to differentiate benign from malignant nodules in patients referred for thyroid surgery. Methods. Clinical and demographic data of 271 patients referred to the Sadoughi Hospital during 2006–2011 were collected. In a two-step approach, a CART classifier was employed to differentiate patients with a high versus low risk of thyroid malignancy. The first step served as the screening procedure and was tailored to produce as few false negatives as possible. The second step identified those with the lowest risk of malignancy, chosen from a high risk population. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV of the optimal tree were calculated. Results. In the first step, age, sex, and nodule size contributed to the optimal tree. Ultrasonographic features were employed in the second step with hypoechogenicity and/or microcalcifications yielding the highest discriminatory ability. The combined tree produced a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0% (95% CI: 29.9–98.9 and 94.1% (95% CI: 78.9–99.0, respectively. NPV and PPV were 66.7% (41.1–85.6 and 97.0% (82.5–99.8, respectively. Conclusion. CART classifier reliably identifies patients with a low risk of malignancy who can avoid unnecessary surgery.

  5. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  6. Can a Modified Bosniak Classification System Risk Stratify Pediatric Cystic Renal Masses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltzman, Amanda F; Carrasco, Alonso; Colvin, Alexandra N; Meyers, Mariana L; Cost, Nicholas G

    2018-03-20

    We characterize and apply the modified Bosniak classification system to a cohort of children with cystic renal lesions and known surgical pathology. We identified all patients at our institution with cystic renal masses who also underwent surgery for these lesions. Patients without available preoperative imaging or pathology were excluded. All radiological imaging was independently reviewed by a pediatric radiologist blinded to pathological findings. Imaging characteristics (size, border, septations, calcifications, solid components, vascularity) were recorded from the most recent preoperative ultrasounds and computerized tomograms. The modified Bosniak classification system was applied to these scans and then correlated with final pathology. A total of 22 patients met study criteria. Median age at surgery was 6.1 years (range 11 months to 16.8 years). Of the patients 12 (54.5%) underwent open nephrectomy, 6 (27.3%) open partial nephrectomy, 2 (9.1%) laparoscopic cyst decortication, 1 (4.5%) open renal biopsy and 1 (4.5%) laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. Final pathology was benign in 9 cases (41%), intermediate in 6 (27%) and malignant in 7 (32%). All malignant lesions were modified Bosniak class 4, all intermediate lesions were modified class 3 or 4 and 8 of 9 benign lesions (89%) were modified class 1 or 2. Cystic renal lesions in children with a modified Bosniak class of 1 or 2 were most often benign, while class 3 or 4 lesions warranted surgical excision since more than 90% of masses harbored intermediate or malignant pathology. The modified Bosniak classification system appears to allow for a reasonable clinical risk stratification of pediatric cystic renal masses. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluation of normalization methods for cDNA microarray data by k-NN classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Wei; Xing, Eric P; Myers, Connie; Mian, Saira; Bissell, Mina J

    2004-12-17

    Non-biological factors give rise to unwanted variations in cDNA microarray data. There are many normalization methods designed to remove such variations. However, to date there have been few published systematic evaluations of these techniques for removing variations arising from dye biases in the context of downstream, higher-order analytical tasks such as classification. Ten location normalization methods that adjust spatial- and/or intensity-dependent dye biases, and three scale methods that adjust scale differences were applied, individually and in combination, to five distinct, published, cancer biology-related cDNA microarray data sets. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) classification error was employed as the quantitative end-point for assessing the effectiveness of a normalization method. In particular, a known classifier, k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), was estimated from data normalized using a given technique, and the LOOCV error rate of the ensuing model was computed. We found that k-NN classifiers are sensitive to dye biases in the data. Using NONRM and GMEDIAN as baseline methods, our results show that single-bias-removal techniques which remove either spatial-dependent dye bias (referred later as spatial effect) or intensity-dependent dye bias (referred later as intensity effect) moderately reduce LOOCV classification errors; whereas double-bias-removal techniques which remove both spatial- and intensity effect reduce LOOCV classification errors even further. Of the 41 different strategies examined, three two-step processes, IGLOESS-SLFILTERW7, ISTSPLINE-SLLOESS and IGLOESS-SLLOESS, all of which removed intensity effect globally and spatial effect locally, appear to reduce LOOCV classification errors most consistently and effectively across all data sets. We also found that the investigated scale normalization methods do not reduce LOOCV classification error. Using LOOCV error of k-NNs as the evaluation criterion, three double

  8. Risk-Aware Planetary Rover Operation: Autonomous Terrain Classification and Path Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Masahiro; Fuchs, Thoams J.; Steffy, Amanda; Maimone, Mark; Yen, Jeng

    2015-01-01

    Identifying and avoiding terrain hazards (e.g., soft soil and pointy embedded rocks) are crucial for the safety of planetary rovers. This paper presents a newly developed groundbased Mars rover operation tool that mitigates risks from terrain by automatically identifying hazards on the terrain, evaluating their risks, and suggesting operators safe paths options that avoids potential risks while achieving specified goals. The tool will bring benefits to rover operations by reducing operation cost, by reducing cognitive load of rover operators, by preventing human errors, and most importantly, by significantly reducing the risk of the loss of rovers.

  9. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  10. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  11. Classification of rare missense substitutions, using risk surfaces, with genetic- and molecular-epidemiology applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavtigian, Sean V; Byrnes, Graham B; Goldgar, David E; Thomas, Alun

    2008-11-01

    Many individually rare missense substitutions are encountered during deep resequencing of candidate susceptibility genes and clinical mutation screening of known susceptibility genes. BRCA1 and BRCA2 are among the most resequenced of all genes, and clinical mutation screening of these genes provides an extensive data set for analysis of rare missense substitutions. Align-GVGD is a mathematically simple missense substitution analysis algorithm, based on the Grantham difference, which has already contributed to classification of missense substitutions in BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2. However, the distribution of genetic risk as a function of Align-GVGD's output variables Grantham variation (GV) and Grantham deviation (GD) has not been well characterized. Here, we used data from the Myriad Genetic Laboratories database of nearly 70,000 full-sequence tests plus two risk estimates, one approximating the odds ratio and the other reflecting strength of selection, to display the distribution of risk in the GV-GD plane as a series of surfaces. We abstracted contours from the surfaces and used the contours to define a sequence of missense substitution grades ordered from greatest risk to least risk. The grades were validated internally using a third, personal and family history-based, measure of risk. The Align-GVGD grades defined here are applicable to both the genetic epidemiology problem of classifying rare missense substitutions observed in known susceptibility genes and the molecular epidemiology problem of analyzing rare missense substitutions observed during case-control mutation screening studies of candidate susceptibility genes. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  12. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  13. New guidelines for dam safety classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dascal, O.

    1999-01-01

    Elements are outlined of recommended new guidelines for safety classification of dams. Arguments are provided for the view that dam classification systems should require more than one system as follows: (a) classification for selection of design criteria, operation procedures and emergency measures plans, based on potential consequences of a dam failure - the hazard classification of water retaining structures; (b) classification for establishment of surveillance activities and for safety evaluation of dams, based on the probability and consequences of failure - the risk classification of water retaining structures; and (c) classification for establishment of water management plans, for safety evaluation of the entire project, for preparation of emergency measures plans, for definition of the frequency and extent of maintenance operations, and for evaluation of changes and modifications required - the hazard classification of the project. The hazard classification of the dam considers, as consequence, mainly the loss of lives or persons in jeopardy and the property damages to third parties. Difficulties in determining the risk classification of the dam lie in the fact that no tool exists to evaluate the probability of the dam's failure. To overcome this, the probability of failure can be substituted for by a set of dam characteristics that express the failure potential of the dam and its foundation. The hazard classification of the entire project is based on the probable consequences of dam failure influencing: loss of life, persons in jeopardy, property and environmental damage. The classification scheme is illustrated for dam threatening events such as earthquakes and floods. 17 refs., 5 tabs

  14. CLASSIFICATION OF ORTHOGNATHIC SURGERY PATIENTS INTO LOW AND HIGH BLEEDING RISK GROUPS USING THROMBELASTOGRAPHY

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elenius Madsen, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Title: CLASSIFICATION OF ORTHOGNATHIC SURGERY PATIENTS INTO LOW AND HIGH BLEEDING RISK GROUPS USING THROMBELASTOGRAPHY Objectives: Orthognathic surgery involves surgical manipulation of jaw and face skeletal structure. A subgroup of patients undergoing orthognathic surgery suffers from excessive...... into account the complex interplay between coagulation factors, blood platelets and components of the fibrinolytic system. Patients undergoing orthognathic surgery were included in this prospective study, and their preoperative thrombelastographic data were collected and compared to their intraoperative blood...... predictive values. An α angleex above 67o did with 95% certainty predict a blood loss below 400 mL, and a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.8. Conclusion: By means of the α angleex it is possible to separate orthognathic surgery patients according...

  15. Contract-program evaluation: Impact of the DRG classification system on hospitals' outputs

    OpenAIRE

    Alves, Helder António Pereira Gomes

    2010-01-01

    A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics The present work project aims at evaluating the impact of contract-program implementation in 2003 and of incentives created in 2007 on hospital output, under the DRG inpatient classification system. A sample of five Portuguese acute public district hospitals was chosen as sample, between 2002 and 2007. Results of hypothesis testing ...

  16. The science of stakeholder engagement in research: classification, implementation, and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Goodman, Melody S.; Sanders Thompson, Vetta L.

    2017-01-01

    In this commentary, we discuss the science of stakeholder engagement in research. We propose a classification system with definitions to determine where projects lie on the stakeholder engagement continuum. We discuss the key elements of implementation and evaluation of stakeholder engagement in research posing key questions to consider when doing this work. We commend and critique the work of Hamilton et al. in their multilevel stakeholder engagement in a VA implementation trial of evidence-...

  17. Geotechnical Risk Classification for Underground Mines / Klasyfikacja Poziomu Zagrożenia Geotechnicznego W Kopalniach Podziemnych

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Ritesh Kumar; Rinne, Mikael

    2015-03-01

    Underground mining activities are prone to major hazards largely owing to geotechnical reasons. Mining combined with the confined working space and uncertain geotechnical data leads to hazards having the potential of catastrophic consequences. These incidents have the potential of causing multiple fatalities and large financial damages. Use of formal risk assessment in the past has demonstrated an important role in the prediction and prevention of accidents in risk prone industries such as petroleum, nuclear and aviation. This paper proposes a classification system for underground mining operations based on their geotechnical risk levels. The classification is done based on the type of mining method employed and the rock mass in which it is carried out. Mining methods have been classified in groups which offer similar geotechnical risk. The rock mass classification has been proposed based on bulk rock mass properties which are collected as part of the routine mine planning. This classification has been subdivided for various stages of mine planning to suit the extent of available data. Alpha-numeric coding has been proposed to identify a mining operation based on the competency of rock and risk of geotechnical failures. This alpha numeric coding has been further extended to identify mining activity under `Geotechnical Hazard Potential (GHP)'. GHP has been proposed to be used as a preliminary tool of risk assessment and risk ranking for a mining activity. The aim of such classification is to be used as a guideline for the justification of a formal geotechnical risk assessment. Górnictwo podziemne pociąga za sobą różnorakie zagrożenia spowodowane przez uwarunkowania geotechniczne. Urabianie złoża w połączeniu z pracą w zamkniętej przestrzeni oraz z niepewnymi danymi geotechnicznymi powodować może zagrożenia, które w konsekwencji prowadzić mogą do wypadków, a te potencjalnie powodować mogą skutki śmiertelne dla osób oraz poważne straty

  18. Developing a contributing factor classification scheme for Rasmussen's AcciMap: Reliability and validity evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goode, N; Salmon, P M; Taylor, N Z; Lenné, M G; Finch, C F

    2017-10-01

    One factor potentially limiting the uptake of Rasmussen's (1997) Accimap method by practitioners is the lack of a contributing factor classification scheme to guide accident analyses. This article evaluates the intra- and inter-rater reliability and criterion-referenced validity of a classification scheme developed to support the use of Accimap by led outdoor activity (LOA) practitioners. The classification scheme has two levels: the system level describes the actors, artefacts and activity context in terms of 14 codes; the descriptor level breaks the system level codes down into 107 specific contributing factors. The study involved 11 LOA practitioners using the scheme on two separate occasions to code a pre-determined list of contributing factors identified from four incident reports. Criterion-referenced validity was assessed by comparing the codes selected by LOA practitioners to those selected by the method creators. Mean intra-rater reliability scores at the system (M = 83.6%) and descriptor (M = 74%) levels were acceptable. Mean inter-rater reliability scores were not consistently acceptable for both coding attempts at the system level (M T1  = 68.8%; M T2  = 73.9%), and were poor at the descriptor level (M T1  = 58.5%; M T2  = 64.1%). Mean criterion referenced validity scores at the system level were acceptable (M T1  = 73.9%; M T2  = 75.3%). However, they were not consistently acceptable at the descriptor level (M T1  = 67.6%; M T2  = 70.8%). Overall, the results indicate that the classification scheme does not currently satisfy reliability and validity requirements, and that further work is required. The implications for the design and development of contributing factors classification schemes are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  20. Research on evaluating water resource resilience based on projection pursuit classification model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong; Zhao, Dan; Liang, Xu; Wu, Qiuchen

    2016-03-01

    Water is a fundamental natural resource while agriculture water guarantees the grain output, which shows that the utilization and management of water resource have a significant practical meaning. Regional agricultural water resource system features with unpredictable, self-organization, and non-linear which lays a certain difficulty on the evaluation of regional agriculture water resource resilience. The current research on water resource resilience remains to focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis is still in the primary stage, thus, according to the above issues, projection pursuit classification model is brought forward. With the help of artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA), it optimizes the projection index function, seeks for the optimal projection direction, and improves AFSA with the application of self-adaptive artificial fish step and crowding factor. Taking Hongxinglong Administration of Heilongjiang as the research base and on the basis of improving AFSA, it established the evaluation of projection pursuit classification model to agriculture water resource system resilience besides the proceeding analysis of projection pursuit classification model on accelerating genetic algorithm. The research shows that the water resource resilience of Hongxinglong is the best than Raohe Farm, and the last 597 Farm. And the further analysis shows that the key driving factors influencing agricultural water resource resilience are precipitation and agriculture water consumption. The research result reveals the restoring situation of the local water resource system, providing foundation for agriculture water resource management.

  1. Schistosoma mansoni reinfection: Analysis of risk factors by classification and regression tree (CART modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréa Gazzinelli

    Full Text Available Praziquantel (PZQ is an effective chemotherapy for schistosomiasis mansoni and a mainstay for its control and potential elimination. However, it does not prevent against reinfection, which can occur rapidly in areas with active transmission. A guide to ranking the risk factors for Schistosoma mansoni reinfection would greatly contribute to prioritizing resources and focusing prevention and control measures to prevent rapid reinfection. The objective of the current study was to explore the relationship among the socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological factors that can influence reinfection by S. mansoni one year after successful treatment with PZQ in school-aged children in Northeastern Minas Gerais state Brazil. Parasitological, socioeconomic, demographic, and water contact information were surveyed in 506 S. mansoni-infected individuals, aged 6 to 15 years, resident in these endemic areas. Eligible individuals were treated with PZQ until they were determined to be negative by the absence of S. mansoni eggs in the feces on two consecutive days of Kato-Katz fecal thick smear. These individuals were surveyed again 12 months from the date of successful treatment with PZQ. A classification and regression tree modeling (CART was then used to explore the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological variables and their reinfection status. The most important risk factor identified for S. mansoni reinfection was their "heavy" infection at baseline. Additional analyses, excluding heavy infection status, showed that lower socioeconomic status and a lower level of education of the household head were also most important risk factors for S. mansoni reinfection. Our results provide an important contribution toward the control and possible elimination of schistosomiasis by identifying three major risk factors that can be used for targeted treatment and monitoring of reinfection. We suggest that control measures that target

  2. Evaluation of classification method of lung lobe for multi-slice CT images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakurai, Kousuke; Matsuhiro, Mikio; Saita, Shinsuke

    2010-01-01

    Recently, due to the introduction of multi-slice CT, to obtain a high resolution 3D CT image is possible in a short time. The temporal and spatial resolutions are high, so a highly accurate 3D image analysis is possible. To develop a structure analysis of the lung is needed and to be used as a fundamental technology for early detection of the disease. By separating the lung into lung lobes may provide important information for analysis, diagnosis and treatment of lung diseases. Therefore in this report, we adapt to abnormality example with the classification algorithms using the anatomical information of the bronchus, the pulmonary vein and interlobar fissure information, we evaluate the classification. (author)

  3. Classification of the coefficients of variation of parameters evaluated in Japanese quail experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DHV Leal

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to design a classification range of the coefficients of variation (CV of traits used in experiments with eggtype Japanese quails (Coturnix coturnix japonica. The journal Revista Brasileira de Zootecnia was systematically reviewed, using the key word 'quail' during the period of January, 2000 to 2010. The CV of feed intake (g/bird/d, egg production (%/bird/d, egg weight (g, egg mass (g/bird/d, feed conversion ratio per dozen eggs (g/dozen, feed conversion ratio per egg mass (g/g, and egg specific gravity (g/mL were collected. For each parameter, CV were classified using the following median (MD and pseudo-sigma (PS ratio as follows: low (CV MD + 2PS. According to the results, it was concluded that each parameter has a specific classification range that should be taken into account when evaluating experimental precision.

  4. Modelling the Happiness Classification of Addicted, Addiction Risk, Threshold and Non-Addicted Groups on Internet Usage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapmaz, Fatma; Totan, Tarik

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study is to model the happiness classification of university students--grouped as addicted, addiction risk, threshold and non-addicted to internet usage--with compatibility analysis on a map as happiness, average and unhappiness. The participants in this study were 400 university students from Turkey. According to the results of…

  5. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  6. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  7. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  8. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  9. Quantification of CT images for the classification of high- and low-risk pancreatic cysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazit, Lior; Chakraborty, Jayasree; Attiyeh, Marc; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Allen, Peter J.; Do, Richard K. G.; Simpson, Amber L.

    2017-03-01

    Pancreatic cancer is the most lethal cancer with an overall 5-year survival rate of 7%1 due to the late stage at diagnosis and the ineffectiveness of current therapeutic strategies. Given the poor prognosis, early detection at a pre-cancerous stage is the best tool for preventing this disease. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), cystic tumors of the pancreas, represent the only radiographically identifiable precursor lesion of pancreatic cancer and are known to evolve stepwise from low-to-high-grade dysplasia before progressing into an invasive carcinoma. Observation is usually recommended for low-risk (low- and intermediate-grade dysplasia) patients, while high-risk (high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma) patients undergo resection; hence, patient selection is critically important in the management of pancreatic cysts.2 Radiologists use standard criteria such as main pancreatic duct size, cyst size, or presence of a solid enhancing component in the cyst to optimally select patients for surgery.3 However, these findings are subject to a radiologist's interpretation and have been shown to be inconsistent with regards to the presence of a mural nodule or solid component.4 We propose objective classification of risk groups based on quantitative imaging features extracted from CT scans. We apply new features that represent the solid component (i.e. areas of high intensity) within the cyst and extract standard texture features. An adaptive boost classifier5 achieves the best performance with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 and accuracy of 77.3% for texture features. The random forest classifier achieves the best performance with AUC of 0.71 and accuracy of 70.8% with the solid component features.

  10. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  11. A novel evaluation of two related and two independent algorithms for eye movement classification during reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Lee; Rigas, Ioannis; Abdulin, Evgeny; Komogortsev, Oleg V

    2018-05-15

    Nystrӧm and Holmqvist have published a method for the classification of eye movements during reading (ONH) (Nyström & Holmqvist, 2010). When we applied this algorithm to our data, the results were not satisfactory, so we modified the algorithm (now the MNH) to better classify our data. The changes included: (1) reducing the amount of signal filtering, (2) excluding a new type of noise, (3) removing several adaptive thresholds and replacing them with fixed thresholds, (4) changing the way that the start and end of each saccade was determined, (5) employing a new algorithm for detecting PSOs, and (6) allowing a fixation period to either begin or end with noise. A new method for the evaluation of classification algorithms is presented. It was designed to provide comprehensive feedback to an algorithm developer, in a time-efficient manner, about the types and numbers of classification errors that an algorithm produces. This evaluation was conducted by three expert raters independently, across 20 randomly chosen recordings, each classified by both algorithms. The MNH made many fewer errors in determining when saccades start and end, and it also detected some fixations and saccades that the ONH did not. The MNH fails to detect very small saccades. We also evaluated two additional algorithms: the EyeLink Parser and a more current, machine-learning-based algorithm. The EyeLink Parser tended to find more saccades that ended too early than did the other methods, and we found numerous problems with the output of the machine-learning-based algorithm.

  12. Risk factors for changing test classification in the Danish surveillance program for Salmonella in dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lennarth Ravn; Warnick, L. D.; Greiner, M.

    2007-01-01

    test positive to negative, whereas the breed and neighbor factors were not found to be important for small herds. Organic production was associated with remaining test positive, but not with becoming test positive. The results emphasize the importance of external and internal biosecurity measures....... The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for changing from test negative to positive, which was indicative of herds becoming infected from one quarter of the year to the next, and risk factors for changing from test positive to negative, which was indicative of herds recovering from infection...

  13. Evaluation and Classification of Syntax Usage in Determining Short-Text Semantic Similarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Batanović

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines and categorizes ways of using syntactic information in a number of algorithms for determining the semantic similarity of short texts. We consider the use of word order information, part-of-speech tagging, parsing and semantic role labeling. We analyze and evaluate the effects of syntax usage on algorithm performance by utilizing the results of a paraphrase detection test on the Microsoft Research Paraphrase Corpus. We also propose a new classification of algorithms based on their applicability to languages with scarce natural language processing tools.

  14. The science of stakeholder engagement in research: classification, implementation, and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Melody S; Sanders Thompson, Vetta L

    2017-09-01

    In this commentary, we discuss the science of stakeholder engagement in research. We propose a classification system with definitions to determine where projects lie on the stakeholder engagement continuum. We discuss the key elements of implementation and evaluation of stakeholder engagement in research posing key questions to consider when doing this work. We commend and critique the work of Hamilton et al. in their multilevel stakeholder engagement in a VA implementation trial of evidence-based quality improvement in women's health primary care. We also discuss the need for more work in this area to enhance the science of stakeholder engagement in research.

  15. Evaluation of low-level radioactive waste characterization and classification programs of the West Valley Demonstration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taie, K.R.

    1994-01-01

    The West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) is preparing to upgrade their low-level radioactive waste (LLW) characterization and classification program. This thesis describes a survey study of three other DOE sites conducted in support of this effort. The LLW characterization/classification programs of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Savannah River Site, and Idaho National Engineering Laboratory were critically evaluated. The evaluation was accomplished through tours of each site facility and personnel interviews. Comparative evaluation of the individual characterization/classification programs suggests the WVDP should purchase a real-time radiography unit and a passive/active neutron detection system, make additional mechanical modifications to the segmented gamma spectroscopy assay system, provide a separate building to house characterization equipment and perform assays away from waste storage, develop and document a new LLW characterization/classification methodology, and make use of the supercompactor owned by WVDP

  16. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  17. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  19. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  20. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  1. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. II: Graded testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents a graded approach to the testing of crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods based on concern levels in a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) and currently available testing methods. A graded approach offers the potential for more efficient use of testing resources by focusing less on lower concern GM foods, and more on higher concern foods. In this proposed approach to graded testing, products that are classified as Level I would have met baseline testing requirements that are comparable to what is widely applied to premarket assessment of GM foods at present. In most cases, Level I products would require no further testing, or very limited confirmatory analyses. For products classified as Level II or higher, additional testing would be required, depending on the type of the substance, prior dietary history, estimated exposure level, prior knowledge of toxicity of the substance, and the nature of the concern related to unintended changes in the modified food. Level III testing applies only to the assessment of toxic and antinutritional effects from intended changes and is tailored to the nature of the substance in question. Since appropriate test methods are not currently available for all effects of concern, future research to strengthen the testing of GM foods is discussed.

  2. Correlation between classification in risk categories and clinical aspects and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Gabriella Novelli; Vancini-Campanharo, Cássia Regina; Lopes, Maria Carolina Barbosa Teixeira; Barbosa, Dulce Aparecida; Okuno, Meiry Fernanda Pinto; Batista, Ruth Ester Assayag

    2016-12-08

    to correlate classification in risk categories with the clinical profiles, outcomes and origins of patients. analytical cross-sectional study conducted with 697 medical forms of adult patients. The variables included: age, sex, origin, signs and symptoms, exams, personal antecedents, classification in risk categories, medical specialties, and outcome. The Chi-square and likelihood ratio tests were used to associate classifications in risk categories with origin, signs and symptoms, exams, personal antecedents, medical specialty, and outcome. most patients were women with an average age of 44.5 years. Pain and dyspnea were the symptoms most frequently reported while hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common comorbidities. Classifications in the green and yellow categories were the most frequent and hospital discharge the most common outcome. Patients classified in the red category presented the highest percentage of ambulance origin due to surgical reasons. Those classified in the orange and red categories also presented the highest percentage of hospitalization and death. correlation between clinical aspects and outcomes indicate there is a relationship between the complexity of components in the categories with greater severity, evidenced by the highest percentage of hospitalization and death. correlacionar as categorias de classificação de risco com perfil clínico, desfechos e procedência. estudo transversal analítico realizado com 697 fichas de atendimento de pacientes adultos. Variáveis estudadas: idade, sexo, procedência, sinais e sintomas, exames, antecedentes pessoais, categorias da classificação de risco, especialidade médica de atendimento e desfecho. Para associar as categorias de classificação de risco com procedência, sinais e sintomas, exames, antecedentes pessoais, especialidade médica e desfecho, utilizaram-se o teste qui-quadrado e a razão de verossimilhança. pacientes do sexo feminino foram a maioria e com média de

  3. Design and Evaluation of Smart Glasses for Food Intake and Physical Activity Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Jungman; Oh, Wonjoon; Baek, Dongyoub; Ryu, Sunwoong; Lee, Won Gu; Bang, Hyunwoo

    2018-02-14

    This study presents a series of protocols of designing and manufacturing a glasses-type wearable device that detects the patterns of temporalis muscle activities during food intake and other physical activities. We fabricated a 3D-printed frame of the glasses and a load cell-integrated printed circuit board (PCB) module inserted in both hinges of the frame. The module was used to acquire the force signals, and transmit them wirelessly. These procedures provide the system with higher mobility, which can be evaluated in practical wearing conditions such as walking and waggling. A performance of the classification is also evaluated by distinguishing the patterns of food intake from those physical activities. A series of algorithms were used to preprocess the signals, generate feature vectors, and recognize the patterns of several featured activities (chewing and winking), and other physical activities (sedentary rest, talking, and walking). The results showed that the average F1 score of the classification among the featured activities was 91.4%. We believe this approach can be potentially useful for automatic and objective monitoring of ingestive behaviors with higher accuracy as practical means to treat ingestive problems.

  4. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  5. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  6. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  7. Minimum Error Entropy Classification

    CERN Document Server

    Marques de Sá, Joaquim P; Santos, Jorge M F; Alexandre, Luís A

    2013-01-01

    This book explains the minimum error entropy (MEE) concept applied to data classification machines. Theoretical results on the inner workings of the MEE concept, in its application to solving a variety of classification problems, are presented in the wider realm of risk functionals. Researchers and practitioners also find in the book a detailed presentation of practical data classifiers using MEE. These include multi‐layer perceptrons, recurrent neural networks, complexvalued neural networks, modular neural networks, and decision trees. A clustering algorithm using a MEE‐like concept is also presented. Examples, tests, evaluation experiments and comparison with similar machines using classic approaches, complement the descriptions.

  8. Modelo de clasificación del riesgo en intersecciones rurales en T y validación del tiempo de evasión como medición alternativa de la seguridad de tránsito en intersecciones Risk classification model in rural T-form intersections and time to evasion evaluation as surrogate safety measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Torres Flores

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available En los cruces o intersecciones, los conductores afrontan una multitud de opciones relacionadas con el camino, velocidad, y trayectoria que, en combinación con numerosos movimientos del tránsito, complican la tarea del conductor y aumentan considerablemente la potencial ocurrencia de un accidente. En este artículo se utilizan datos de conflictos de tránsito, tomados en cruces de la Provincia de Talagante en la Región Metropolitana de Santiago, Chile. Usando la metodología de componentes principales, se propone un índice que represente el nivel de riesgo de cada conflicto de tránsito en una intersección, determinándose que los valores más altos del índice están relacionados a un mayor riesgo de que un conflicto termine en accidente, mientras que valores bajos indican un menor riesgo. Posteriormente, se desarrolla un modelo de clasificación del riesgo en intersecciones, aplicando la teoría de árboles de decisión. Por último, se valida el Tiempo de Evasión (TE como variable cuantificadora de la severidad de los conflictos de tránsito, tomando como base variables ya estudiadas a nivel mundial, como el Tiempo hasta la Colisión (TC y el Tiempo de Post-invasión (TPI.In the intersections, the drivers confront many options related to the way, speed and trajectory, which ones in combination to many options of traffic movements, they make difficult the task of the conductor and considerably increase the potential occurrence of an accident. In this paper, data of traffic conflicts are used, taken in rural T-form intersections from Talagante district in the Metropolitana region, Chile. Using the principal component analysis, an index are proposed that represents the risk level of each traffic conflict in an intersection, determining that the highest values of the index are related to a greater risk of than a traffic conflict it finished in accident, whereas low values indicate a smaller risk. After that, a model of classification of the

  9. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  10. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  11. Managing Sensitive Information: DOD Can More Effectively Reduce the Risk of Classification Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    D'Agostino, Davi M; Borseth, Ann; Fenton, Mattias; Hatton, Adam; Hills, Barbara; Keefer, David; Mayfield, David; Reid, Jim; Richardson, Terry; Schwartz, Marc

    2006-01-01

    .... While some DoD components and their subordinate commands appear to manage effective programs, GAO identified weaknesses in others in the areas of classification management training, self-inspections...

  12. A Global Perspective on Drinking-Water and Sanitation Classification: An Evaluation of Census Content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Weiyu; Wardrop, Nicola A; Bain, Robert E S; Lin, Yanzhao; Zhang, Ce; Wright, Jim A

    2016-01-01

    Following the recent expiry of the United Nations' 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), new international development agenda covering 2030 water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) targets have been proposed, which imply new demands on data sources for monitoring relevant progress. This study evaluates drinking-water and sanitation classification systems from national census questionnaire content, based upon the most recent international policy changes, to examine national population census's ability to capture drinking-water and sanitation availability, safety, accessibility, and sustainability. In total, 247 censuses from 83 low income and lower-middle income countries were assessed using a scoring system, intended to assess harmonised water supply and sanitation classification systems for each census relative to the typology needed to monitor the proposed post-2015 indicators of WASH targets. The results signal a lack of international harmonisation and standardisation in census categorisation systems, especially concerning safety, accessibility, and sustainability of services in current census content. This suggests further refinements and harmonisation of future census content may be necessary to reflect ambitions for post-2015 monitoring.

  13. Visual classification of very fine-grained sediments: Evaluation through univariate and multivariate statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohn, M. Ed; Nuhfer, E.B.; Vinopal, R.J.; Klanderman, D.S.

    1980-01-01

    Classifying very fine-grained rocks through fabric elements provides information about depositional environments, but is subject to the biases of visual taxonomy. To evaluate the statistical significance of an empirical classification of very fine-grained rocks, samples from Devonian shales in four cored wells in West Virginia and Virginia were measured for 15 variables: quartz, illite, pyrite and expandable clays determined by X-ray diffraction; total sulfur, organic content, inorganic carbon, matrix density, bulk density, porosity, silt, as well as density, sonic travel time, resistivity, and ??-ray response measured from well logs. The four lithologic types comprised: (1) sharply banded shale, (2) thinly laminated shale, (3) lenticularly laminated shale, and (4) nonbanded shale. Univariate and multivariate analyses of variance showed that the lithologic classification reflects significant differences for the variables measured, difference that can be detected independently of stratigraphic effects. Little-known statistical methods found useful in this work included: the multivariate analysis of variance with more than one effect, simultaneous plotting of samples and variables on canonical variates, and the use of parametric ANOVA and MANOVA on ranked data. ?? 1980 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

  14. Evaluation of Effectiveness of Wavelet Based Denoising Schemes Using ANN and SVM for Bearing Condition Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay G. S.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The wavelet based denoising has proven its ability to denoise the bearing vibration signals by improving the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and reducing the root-mean-square error (RMSE. In this paper seven wavelet based denoising schemes have been evaluated based on the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN and the Support Vector Machine (SVM, for the bearing condition classification. The work consists of two parts, the first part in which a synthetic signal simulating the defective bearing vibration signal with Gaussian noise was subjected to these denoising schemes. The best scheme based on the SNR and the RMSE was identified. In the second part, the vibration signals collected from a customized Rolling Element Bearing (REB test rig for four bearing conditions were subjected to these denoising schemes. Several time and frequency domain features were extracted from the denoised signals, out of which a few sensitive features were selected using the Fisher’s Criterion (FC. Extracted features were used to train and test the ANN and the SVM. The best denoising scheme identified, based on the classification performances of the ANN and the SVM, was found to be the same as the one obtained using the synthetic signal.

  15. CBM Resources/reserves classification and evaluation based on PRMS rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fa, Guifang; Yuan, Ruie; Wang, Zuoqian; Lan, Jun; Zhao, Jian; Xia, Mingjun; Cai, Dechao; Yi, Yanjing

    2018-02-01

    This paper introduces a set of definitions and classification requirements for coalbed methane (CBM) resources/reserves, based on Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS). The basic CBM classification criterions of 1P, 2P, 3P and contingent resources are put forward from the following aspects: ownership, project maturity, drilling requirements, testing requirements, economic requirements, infrastructure and market, timing of production and development, and so on. The volumetric method is used to evaluate the OGIP, with focuses on analyses of key parameters and principles of the parameter selection, such as net thickness, ash and water content, coal rank and composition, coal density, cleat volume and saturation and absorbed gas content etc. A dynamic method is used to assess the reserves and recovery efficiency. Since the differences in rock and fluid properties, displacement mechanism, completion and operating practices and wellbore type resulted in different production curve characteristics, the factors affecting production behavior, the dewatering period, pressure build-up and interference effects were analyzed. The conclusion and results that the paper achieved can be used as important references for reasonable assessment of CBM resources/reserves.

  16. Evaluation of soft segment modeling on a context independent phoneme classification system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Razzazi, F.; Sayadiyan, A.

    2007-01-01

    The geometric distribution of states duration is one of the main performance limiting assumptions of hidden Markov modeling of speech signals. Stochastic segment models, generally, and segmental HMM, specifically overcome this deficiency partly at the cost of more complexity in both training and recognition phases. In addition to this assumption, the gradual temporal changes of speech statistics has not been modeled in HMM. In this paper, a new duration modeling approach is presented. The main idea of the model is to consider the effect of adjacent segments on the probability density function estimation and evaluation of each acoustic segment. This idea not only makes the model robust against segmentation errors, but also it models gradual change from one segment to the next one with a minimum set of parameters. The proposed idea is analytically formulated and tested on a TIMIT based context independent phenomena classification system. During the test procedure, the phoneme classification of different phoneme classes was performed by applying various proposed recognition algorithms. The system was optimized and the results have been compared with a continuous density hidden Markov model (CDHMM) with similar computational complexity. The results show 8-10% improvement in phoneme recognition rate in comparison with standard continuous density hidden Markov model. This indicates improved compatibility of the proposed model with the speech nature. (author)

  17. A Global Perspective on Drinking-Water and Sanitation Classification: An Evaluation of Census Content.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyu Yu

    Full Text Available Following the recent expiry of the United Nations' 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, new international development agenda covering 2030 water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH targets have been proposed, which imply new demands on data sources for monitoring relevant progress. This study evaluates drinking-water and sanitation classification systems from national census questionnaire content, based upon the most recent international policy changes, to examine national population census's ability to capture drinking-water and sanitation availability, safety, accessibility, and sustainability. In total, 247 censuses from 83 low income and lower-middle income countries were assessed using a scoring system, intended to assess harmonised water supply and sanitation classification systems for each census relative to the typology needed to monitor the proposed post-2015 indicators of WASH targets. The results signal a lack of international harmonisation and standardisation in census categorisation systems, especially concerning safety, accessibility, and sustainability of services in current census content. This suggests further refinements and harmonisation of future census content may be necessary to reflect ambitions for post-2015 monitoring.

  18. Example-Dependent Cost-Sensitive Classification with Applications in Financial Risk Modeling and Marketing Analytics

    OpenAIRE

    Correa Bahnsen, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    Several real-world binary classification problems are example-dependent cost-sensitive in nature, where the costs due to misclassification vary between examples and not only within classes. However, standard binary classification methods do not take these costs into account, and assume a constant cost of misclassification errors. This approach is not realistic in many real-world applications. For example in credit card fraud detection, failing to detect a fraudulent transaction may have an ec...

  19. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  20. Toxicity classification and evaluation of four pharmaceuticals classes: antibiotics, antineoplastics, cardiovascular, and sex hormones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Hans; Brain, Richard A.; Johnson, David J.; Wilson, Christian J.; Solomon, Keith R.

    2004-01-01

    Four different classes of environmental concern are quantitatively and qualitatively assessed for environmental hazards; antibiotics (n = 226), antineoplastics (n = 81), cardiovascular (n = 272), and sex hormones (n 92). These along with an ECOSAR scan of all pharmaceuticals (n = 2848) were then classified according to the OECD aquatic toxicity classification system. The predicted species susceptibility is: daphnid > fish > algae, and the predicted rank order of relative toxicity: sex hormones > cardiovascular antibiotics > antineoplastics (Table 1). Generally, a relatively large proportion (1/3) of all pharmaceuticals are potentially very toxic to aquatic organisms (Table 2). The qualitative risk assessment ranking relative to probability and potential severity for human and environmental health effects is: antibiotics > sex hormones > cardiovascular > antineoplastics. (Q)SARs and pharmacodynamic information should be used to prioritize and steer experimental risk assessments of pharmaceuticals, and potentially, also be used in new drug discovery optimizing efficacy and in minimising environmental hazards of new products. Nuclear receptors are relatively well conserved in evolution. Currently, antibacterial resistance represents the most significant human health hazard, and potentially the largest non-target organism hazard is sex hormones acting as endocrine modulators in wildlife. Data for the individual compounds are accessible via http://www.uoguelph.ca/~hsander/

  1. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana; Jednak, Sandra; Benkovic, Sladana; Poznanic, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: → Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. → Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. → Risk analysis was done using FMEA. → Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. → The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  2. BP network for atorvastatin effect evaluation from ultrasound images features classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Mengjie; Yang, Xin; Liu, Yang; Xu, Hongwei; Liang, Huageng; Wang, Yujie; Ding, Mingyue

    2013-10-01

    Atherosclerotic lesions at the carotid artery are a major cause of emboli or atheromatous debris, resulting in approximately 88% of ischemic strokes in the USA in 2006. Stroke is becoming the most common cause of death worldwide, although patient management and prevention strategies have reduced stroke rate considerably over the past decades. Many research studies have been carried out on how to quantitatively evaluate local arterial effects for potential carotid disease treatments. As an inexpensive, convenient and fast means of detection, ultrasonic medical testing has been widespread in the world, so it is very practical to use ultrasound technology in the prevention and treatment of carotid atherosclerosis. This paper is dedicated to this field. Currently, many ultrasound image characteristics on carotid plaque have been proposed. After screening a large number of features (including 26 morphological and 85 texture features), we have got six shape characteristics and six texture characteristics in the combination. In order to test the validity and accuracy of these combined features, we have established a Back-Propagation (BP) neural network to classify atherosclerosis plaques between atorvastatin group and placebo group. The leave-one-case-out protocol was utilized on a database of 768 carotid ultrasound images of 12 patients (5 subjects of placebo group and 7 subjects of atorvastatin group) for the evaluation. The classification results showed that the combined features and classification have good recognition ability, with the overall accuracy 83.93%, sensitivity 82.14%, specificity 85.20%, positive predictive value 79.86%, negative predictive value 86.98%, Matthew's correlation coefficient 67.08%, and Youden's index 67.34%. And the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in our test also performed well.

  3. Physical distance, genetic relationship, age, and leprosy classification are independent risk factors for leprosy in contacts of patients with leprosy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moet, F Johannes; Pahan, David; Schuring, Ron P; Oskam, Linda; Richardus, Jan H

    2006-02-01

    Close contacts of patients with leprosy have a higher risk of developing leprosy. Several risk factors have been identified, including genetic relationship and physical distance. Their independent contributions to the risk of developing leprosy, however, have never been sufficiently quantified. Logistic-regression analysis was performed on intake data from a prospective cohort study of 1037 patients newly diagnosed as having leprosy and their 21,870 contacts. Higher age showed an increased risk, with a bimodal distribution. Contacts of patients with paucibacillary (PB) leprosy with 2-5 lesions (PB2-5) and those with multibacillary (MB) leprosy had a higher risk than did contacts of patients with single-lesion PB leprosy. The core household group had a higher risk than other contacts living under the same roof and next-door neighbors, who again had a higher risk than neighbors of neighbors. A close genetic relationship indicated an increased risk when blood-related children, parents, and siblings were pooled together. Age of the contact, the disease classification of the index patient, and physical and genetic distance were independently associated with the risk of a contact acquiring leprosy. Contact surveys in leprosy should be not only focused on household contacts but also extended to neighbors and consanguineous relatives, especially when the patient has PB2-5 or MB leprosy.

  4. Identifying HIV most-at-risk groups in Malawi for targeted interventions. A classification tree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emina, Jacques B O; Madise, Nyovani; Kuepie, Mathias; Zulu, Eliya M; Ye, Yazoume

    2013-05-28

    To identify HIV-socioeconomic predictors as well as the most-at-risk groups of women in Malawi. A cross-sectional survey. Malawi The study used a sample of 6395 women aged 15-49 years from the 2010 Malawi Health and Demographic Surveys. Individual HIV status: positive or not. Findings from the Pearson χ(2) and χ(2) Automatic Interaction Detector analyses revealed that marital status is the most significant predictor of HIV. Women who are no longer in union and living in the highest wealth quintiles households constitute the most-at-risk group, whereas the less-at-risk group includes young women (15-24) never married or in union and living in rural areas. In the light of these findings, this study recommends: (1) that the design and implementation of targeted interventions should consider the magnitude of HIV prevalence and demographic size of most-at-risk groups. Preventive interventions should prioritise couples and never married people aged 25-49 years and living in rural areas because this group accounts for 49% of the study population and 40% of women living with HIV in Malawi; (2) with reference to treatment and care, higher priority must be given to promoting HIV test, monitoring and evaluation of equity in access to treatment among women in union disruption and never married or women in union aged 30-49 years and living in urban areas; (3) community health workers, households-based campaign, reproductive-health services and reproductive-health courses at school could be used as canons to achieve universal prevention strategy, testing, counselling and treatment.

  5. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  6. Cleft lip and palate review: Epidemiology, risk factors, quality of life, and importance of classifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laureen Supit

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Cleft lip with or without cleft palate is the most occurring craniofacial anomaly in human, resulting from a complex etiology involving multiple genetic and environmental factors. The defect carries lifelong morbidity and economic burden. Children with clefts will require continuous medical interventions for at least the first 18 years of life, affecting many aspects of their lives. The extent and complexity of clefts vary infinitely, later determining individual management and outcome. Identification and classification play significant roles in initial assessment of these unique cleft cases, which affect options for following correctional attempts. Some classifications even allow measurement of progress after anatomical repositioning, and success rate after surgical repairs. The challenge of developing one such widely inclusive classification is discussed. (Med J Indones 2008; 17: 226-39Keywords: Cleft lip, cleft palate, congenital anomaly, cleft  classfications

  7. Polyp morphology: an interobserver evaluation for the Paris classification among international experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Doorn, Sascha C; Hazewinkel, Y; East, James E; van Leerdam, Monique E; Rastogi, Amit; Pellisé, Maria; Sanduleanu-Dascalescu, Silvia; Bastiaansen, Barbara A J; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2015-01-01

    The Paris classification is an international classification system for describing polyp morphology. Thus far, the validity and reproducibility of this classification have not been assessed. We aimed to determine the interobserver agreement for the Paris classification among seven Western expert endoscopists. A total of 85 short endoscopic video clips depicting polyps were created and assessed by seven expert endoscopists according to the Paris classification. After a digital training module, the same 85 polyps were assessed again. We calculated the interobserver agreement with a Fleiss kappa and as the proportion of pairwise agreement. The interobserver agreement of the Paris classification among seven experts was moderate with a Fleiss kappa of 0.42 and a mean pairwise agreement of 67%. The proportion of lesions assessed as "flat" by the experts ranged between 13 and 40% (Pagreement did not change (kappa 0.38, pairwise agreement 60%). Our study is the first to validate the Paris classification for polyp morphology. We demonstrated only a moderate interobserver agreement among international Western experts for this classification system. Our data suggest that, in its current version, the use of this classification system in daily practice is questionable and it is unsuitable for comparative endoscopic research. We therefore suggest introduction of a simplification of the classification system.

  8. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  9. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  11. Infant-Mother Attachment Classification: Risk and Protection in Relation to Changing Maternal Caregiving Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developmental Psychology, 2006

    2006-01-01

    The relations between early infant-mother attachment and children's social competence and behavior problems during the preschool and early school-age period were examined in more than 1,000 children under conditions of decreasing, stable, and increasing maternal parenting quality. Infants' Strange Situation attachment classifications predicted…

  12. Use of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for improving the accuracy of the risk classification of type 1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Mahon, Jeffrey; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Greenbaum, Carla J; Rafkin, Lisa E; Beam, Craig A; Boulware, David C; Matheson, Della; Cuthbertson, David; Herold, Kevan C; Eisenbarth, George; Palmer, Jerry P

    2014-04-01

    OBJECTIVE We studied the utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for improving the accuracy of type 1 diabetes (T1D) risk classification in TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS) participants. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The cumulative incidence of T1D was compared between normoglycemic individuals with DPTRS values >7.00 and dysglycemic individuals in the TNNHS (n = 991). It was also compared between individuals with DPTRS values 7.00 among those with dysglycemia and those with multiple autoantibodies in the TNNHS. DPTRS values >7.00 were compared with dysglycemia for characterizing risk in Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) (n = 670) and TNNHS participants. The reliability of DPTRS values >7.00 was compared with dysglycemia in the TNNHS. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of T1D for normoglycemic TNNHS participants with DPTRS values >7.00 was comparable to those with dysglycemia. Among those with dysglycemia, the cumulative incidence was much higher (P 7.00 than for those with values 7.00). Dysglycemic individuals in DPT-1 were at much higher risk for T1D than those with dysglycemia in the TNNHS (P 7.00. The proportion in the TNNHS reverting from dysglycemia to normoglycemia at the next visit was higher than the proportion reverting from DPTRS values >7.00 to values <7.00 (36 vs. 23%). CONCLUSIONS DPTRS thresholds can improve T1D risk classification accuracy by identifying high-risk normoglycemic and low-risk dysglycemic individuals. The 7.00 DPTRS threshold characterizes risk more consistently between populations and has greater reliability than dysglycemia.

  13. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  14. Vocational rehabilitation evaluation and the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltychev, Mikhail; Kinnunen, Aila; Laimi, Katri

    2013-03-01

    To identify the most frequent functional limitations according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) obtained by unstandardised clinical assessment of patients with chronic musculoskeletal disorders who underwent vocational rehabilitation evaluation; and to compare the obtained list with simplified versions of ICF. The descriptions of functional limitations were retrospectively identified for 32 patients. The original vocational rehabilitation evaluation was conducted by a multi-professional team in an out-patient clinic of a university hospital. The obtained descriptions were converted to ICF codes, the most frequent being compared with the ICF Checklist of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the ICF Comprehensive and Brief Core Sets suggested by the ICF Research Branch. In the study population (53 % women), 141 ICF codes were identified with a preciseness of three or more digits, the average being 21 codes/subject (median 20.0, range 9-40). When truncated to three digits, 84 ICF codes remained (average 18 codes/subject, range 9-25), 45 of which appeared in over 10 % of the study population, 24 also being found in the ICF Comprehensive, 5 in the ICF Brief Core Sets, and 33 in the WHO ICF Checklist. The list of most frequent ICF codes retrospectively obtained in this study from unstandardised records showed a similarity with ICF Comprehensive and Brief Core Sets by ICF Research Branch and the ICF Checklist by WHO, but with a bias towards the identification of body structures and functions. The results support the use of ICF in vocational rehabilitation evaluation to ensure comprehensiveness of evaluation. The ICF Comprehensive Core Set seems to be the most useful for the needs of multiprofessional team when assessing functioning of patients.

  15. Evaluation of the radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menossi, C.A.; Segado, R.; Reyes, R.

    1983-01-01

    A probability model for the evaluation of the individual radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water in 200-liter drums is presented. In order to evaluate such risk, an evaluation must be made of the probability for an individual to be involved in the consequences of a radiological transport accident, to incur a given dose and to suffer deleterious effects resulting from the dose incurred. With the purpose of quantifying the importance of accidents, a severity level classification was adopted as a function of the fraction of liquid volume spilled as a result of the accident. Considering the above-mentioned severity classification and the transported volume, the volume and the spill area are implied, while the soil characteristics are taken into account. By evaluating the spill characteristics, the average meteorological conditions in the area under analysis and the activity concentration of the transported liquid, the activity concentration values for tritium in air may be estimated, thus allowing calculation of the effective dose equivalent to be incurred by the individual who is most exposed to the consequences of an associated event. As a result of the summarized analysis above, a value of the individual risk per unit of activity concentration is obtained for tritium and for a given volume of transported liquid. 8 references

  16. Classification of dual language audio-visual content: Introduction to the VideoCLEF 2008 pilot benchmark evaluation task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larson, M.; Newman, E.; Jones, G.J.F.; Köhler, J.; Larson, M.; de Jong, F.M.G.; Kraaij, W.; Ordelman, R.J.F.

    2008-01-01

    VideoCLEF is a new track for the CLEF 2008 campaign. This track aims to develop and evaluate tasks in analyzing multilingual video content. A pilot of a Vid2RSS task involving assigning thematic class labels to video kicks off the VideoCLEF track in 2008. Task participants deliver classification

  17. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  18. On the Evaluation of Outlier Detection and One-Class Classification Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swersky, Lorne; Marques, Henrique O.; Sander, Jörg

    2016-01-01

    It has been shown that unsupervised outlier detection methods can be adapted to the one-class classification problem. In this paper, we focus on the comparison of oneclass classification algorithms with such adapted unsupervised outlier detection methods, improving on previous comparison studies ...

  19. Evaluation of the ACR and SLICC classification criteria in juvenile-onset systemic lupus erythematosus: a longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lythgoe, H; Morgan, T; Heaf, E; Lloyd, O; Al-Abadi, E; Armon, K; Bailey, K; Davidson, J; Friswell, M; Gardner-Medwin, J; Haslam, K; Ioannou, Y; Leahy, A; Leone, V; Pilkington, C; Rangaraj, S; Riley, P; Tizard, E J; Wilkinson, N; Beresford, M W

    2017-10-01

    Objectives The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) group proposed revised classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLICC-2012 criteria). This study aimed to compare these criteria with the well-established American College of Rheumatology classification criteria (ACR-1997 criteria) in a national cohort of juvenile-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients and evaluate how patients' classification criteria evolved over time. Methods Data from patients in the UK JSLE Cohort Study with a senior clinician diagnosis of probable evolving, or definite JSLE, were analyzed. Patients were assessed using both classification criteria within 1 year of diagnosis and at latest follow up (following a minimum 12-month follow-up period). Results A total of 226 patients were included. The SLICC-2012 was more sensitive than ACR-1997 at diagnosis (92.9% versus 84.1% p < 0.001) and after follow up (100% versus 92.0% p < 0.001). Most patients meeting the SLICC-2012 criteria and not the ACR-1997 met more than one additional criterion on the SLICC-2012. Conclusions The SLICC-2012 was better able to classify patients with JSLE than the ACR-1997 and did so at an earlier stage in their disease course. SLICC-2012 should be considered for classification of JSLE patients in observational studies and clinical trial eligibility.

  20. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  1. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  2. Impact of corpus domain for sentiment classification: An evaluation study using supervised machine learning techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsi, Redouane; Zaim, Mounia; El Alami, Jamila

    2017-07-01

    Thanks to the development of the internet, a large community now has the possibility to communicate and express its opinions and preferences through multiple media such as blogs, forums, social networks and e-commerce sites. Today, it becomes clearer that opinions published on the web are a very valuable source for decision-making, so a rapidly growing field of research called “sentiment analysis” is born to address the problem of automatically determining the polarity (Positive, negative, neutral,…) of textual opinions. People expressing themselves in a particular domain often use specific domain language expressions, thus, building a classifier, which performs well in different domains is a challenging problem. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of domain for sentiment classification when using machine learning techniques. In our study three popular machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes and K nearest neighbors(KNN) were applied on datasets collected from different domains. Experimental results show that Support Vector Machines outperforms other classifiers in all domains, since it achieved at least 74.75% accuracy with a standard deviation of 4,08.

  3. Evaluation of Semi-supervised Learning for Classification of Protein Crystallization Imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigdel, Madhav; Dinç, İmren; Dinç, Semih; Sigdel, Madhu S; Pusey, Marc L; Aygün, Ramazan S

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, we investigate the performance of two wrapper methods for semi-supervised learning algorithms for classification of protein crystallization images with limited labeled images. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of semi-supervised approach using self-training with naïve Bayesian (NB) and sequential minimum optimization (SMO) as the base classifiers. The confidence values returned by these classifiers are used to select high confident predictions to be used for self-training. Secondly, we analyze the performance of Yet Another Two Stage Idea (YATSI) semi-supervised learning using NB, SMO, multilayer perceptron (MLP), J48 and random forest (RF) classifiers. These results are compared with the basic supervised learning using the same training sets. We perform our experiments on a dataset consisting of 2250 protein crystallization images for different proportions of training and test data. Our results indicate that NB and SMO using both self-training and YATSI semi-supervised approaches improve accuracies with respect to supervised learning. On the other hand, MLP, J48 and RF perform better using basic supervised learning. Overall, random forest classifier yields the best accuracy with supervised learning for our dataset.

  4. The impact of complications on quality of life following colorectal surgery : A prospective cohort study to evaluate the Clavien-Dindo classification system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, E.; Pullens, M.J.J.; de Vries, J.; Roukema, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Aim This prospective cohort study was performed to evaluate the impact of complications on quality of life (QOL) in colorectal surgery. The Clavien–Dindo complication classification (CDCC) is promising, but has not been evaluated by relating the classification to patient-reported outcome measures.

  5. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  6. An evaluation of sampling and full enumeration strategies for Fisher Jenks classification in big data settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Sergio J.; Stephens, Philip A.; Laura, Jason R.

    2017-01-01

    Large data contexts present a number of challenges to optimal choropleth map classifiers. Application of optimal classifiers to a sample of the attribute space is one proposed solution. The properties of alternative sampling-based classification methods are examined through a series of Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of spatial autocorrelation, number of desired classes, and form of sampling are shown to have significant impacts on the accuracy of map classifications. Tradeoffs between improved speed of the sampling approaches and loss of accuracy are also considered. The results suggest the possibility of guiding the choice of classification scheme as a function of the properties of large data sets.

  7. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  8. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  9. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  10. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  11. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  12. Results of high-energy transurethral microwave thermotherapy in patients categorized according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists operative risk classification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'Ancona, F. C.; van der Bij, A. K.; Francisca, E. A.; Kho, H.; Debruyne, F. M.; Kiemeney, L. A.; de la Rosette, J. J.

    1999-01-01

    To evaluate the relation between the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification and response to transurethral microwave thermotherapy (TUMT) in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Two hundred forty-seven patients with symptomatic BPH

  13. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  14. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  15. Language and functionality of post-stroke adults: evaluation based on International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santana, Maria Tereza Maynard; Chun, Regina Yu Shon

    2017-03-09

    Cerebrovascular accident is an important Public Health problem because of the high rates of mortality and sequelae such as language disorders. The conceptual health changes have led to the incorporation of functional and social aspects in the assessments as proposed by the World Health Organization in the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. The purpose was to evaluate and classify language aspects, functionality and participation of post-stroke individuals based on the concepts of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health and characterize the sociodemographic profile of participants. Data collection was carried out through the application of a clinical instrument to evaluate language, participation and functionality in fifty individuals based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. The age of the participants varied between 32 and 88 years, and the majority were elderly men. Among body functions, the participants reported more difficulties in "memory functions". As for activity and participation, more difficulties were reported in "recreation and leisure". As for environmental factors, the component "healthcare professionals" was indicated as a facilitator by the majority of participants. The results show the impact of language difficulties in the lives of post-stroke adults and reinforce the applicability of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health as an important complementary tool for assessing language, functionality and participation in a comprehensive and humane approach, towards the improvement of health assistance in ambulatory care.

  16. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  17. Threshold of toxicological concern values for non-genotoxic effects in industrial chemicals: re-evaluation of the Cramer classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalkhof, H; Herzler, M; Stahlmann, R; Gundert-Remy, U

    2012-01-01

    The TTC concept employs available data from animal testing to derive a distribution of NOAELs. Taking a probabilistic view, the 5th percentile of the distribution is taken as a threshold value for toxicity. In this paper, we use 824 NOAELs from repeated dose toxicity studies of industrial chemicals to re-evaluate the currently employed TTC values, which have been derived for substances grouped according to the Cramer scheme (Cramer et al. in Food Cosm Toxicol 16:255-276, 1978) by Munro et al. (Food Chem Toxicol 34:829-867, 1996) and refined by Kroes and Kozianowski (Toxicol Lett 127:43-46, 2002), Kroes et al. 2000. In our data set, consisting of 756 NOAELs from 28-day repeated dose testing and 57 NOAELs from 90-days repeated dose testing, the experimental NOAEL had to be extrapolated to chronic TTC using regulatory accepted extrapolation factors. The TTC values derived from our data set were higher than the currently used TTC values confirming the safety of the latter. We analysed the prediction of the Cramer classification by comparing the classification by this tool with the guidance values for classification according to the Globally Harmonised System of classification and labelling of the United Nations (GHS). Nearly 90% of the chemicals were in Cramer class 3 and assumed as highly toxic compared to 22% according to the GHS. The Cramer classification does underestimate the toxicity of chemicals only in 4.6% of the cases. Hence, from a regulatory perspective, the Cramer classification scheme might be applied as it overestimates hazard of a chemical.

  18. Classification and risk assessment of individuals with familial polyposis, Gardner's syndrome, and familial non-polyposis colon cancer from [3H]thymidine labeling patterns in colonic epithelial cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipkin, M.; Blattner, W.A.; Gardner, E.J.; Burt, R.W.; Lynch, H.; Deschner, E.; Winawer, S.; Fraumeni, J.F. Jr.

    1984-01-01

    A probabilistic analysis has been developed to assist the binary classification and risk assessment of members of familial colon cancer kindreds. The analysis is based on the microautoradiographic observation of [ 3 H]thymidine-labeled epithelial cells in colonic mucosa of the kindred members. From biopsies of colonic mucosa which are labeled with [ 3 H]thymidine in vitro, the degree of similarity of each subject's cell-labeling pattern measured over entire crypts was automatically compared to the labeling patterns of high-risk and low-risk reference populations. Each individual was then presumptively classified and assigned to one of the reference populations, and a degree of risk for the classification was provided. In carrying out the analysis, a linear score was calculated for each individual relative to each of the reference populations, and the classification was based on the polarity of the score difference; the degree of risk was then quantitated from the magnitude of the score difference. When the method was applied to kindreds having either familial polyposis or familial non-polyposis colon cancer, it effectively segregated individuals affected with disease from others at low risk, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 71 to 92%. Further application of the method to asymptomatic family members believed to be at 50% risk on the basis of pedigree evaluation revealed a biomodal distribution to nearly zero or full risk. The accuracy and simplicity of this approach and its capability of revealing early stages of abnormal colonic epithelial cell development indicate potential for preclinical screening of subjects at risk in cancer-prone kindreds and for assisting the analysis of modes of inheritance

  19. Poststernotomy mediastinitis: a classification to initiate and evaluate reconstructive management based on evidence from a structured review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wingerden, Jan J; Ubbink, Dirk T; van der Horst, Chantal M A M; de Mol, Bas A J M

    2014-11-23

    Early recognition and, where possible, avoidance of risk factors that contribute to the development of poststernotomy mediastinitis (PSM) form the basis for successful prevention. Once the presence of PSM is diagnosed, the known risk factors have been shown to have limited influence on management decisions. Evidence-based knowledge on treatment decisions, which include the extent and type of surgical intervention (other than debridement), timing and others is available but has not yet been incorporated into a classification on management decisions regarding PSM. Ours is a first attempt at developing a classification system for management of PSM, taking the various evidence-based reconstructive options into consideration. The classification is simple to introduce (there are four Types) and relies on the careful establishment of two variables (sternal stability and sternal bone viability and stock) prior to deciding on the best available reconstructive option. It should allow better insight into why treatment decisions fail or have to be altered and will allow better comparison of treatment outcomes between various institutions.

  20. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  1. [Evaluation of the appropriateness of hospital admissions using the iso-gravity classification systems APR-DRG and Disease Staging and the Italian version of Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (AEP)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, G; Capalbo, G; Volpe, M; Marchetti, M; Vicentini, F; Capelli, G; Cambieri, A; Cicchetti, A; Ricciardi, G; Catananti, C

    2006-01-01

    Our main purpose was to evaluate the organizational appropriateness of admissions made in a university hospital, by comparing two iso-gravity classification systems, APR-DRG and Disease Staging, with the Italian version of AEP (PRUO). Our analysis focused on admissions made in 2001, related to specific Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), which, according an Italian Law, would be considered at high risk of inappropriateness, if treated as ordinary admissions. The results obtained by using the 2 classification systems did not show statistically significant differences with respect to the total number of admissions. On the other hand, some DRGs showed statistically significant differences due to different algorithms of attribution of the severity levels used by the two systems. For almost all of the DRGs studied, the AEP-based analysis of a sample of medical records showed an higher number of inappropriate admissions in comparison with the number expected by iso-gravity classification methods. The difference is possibly due to the percentage limits of tolerability fixed by the Law for each DRG. Therefore, the authors suggest an integrated use of the two methods to evaluate organizational appropriateness of hospital admissions.

  2. Statistical concepts of a priori and a posteriori risk classification in insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Valdez, E.

    2012-01-01

    Everyday we face all kinds of risks, and insurance is in the business of providing us a means to transfer or share these risks, usually to eliminate or reduce the resulting financial burden, in exchange for a predetermined price or tariff. Actuaries are considered professional experts in the

  3. Characterization and classification of patients with different levels of cardiac death risk by using Poincaré plot analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Javier; Voss, Andreas; Caminal, Pere; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Giraldo, Beatriz F

    2017-07-01

    Cardiac death risk is still a big problem by an important part of the population, especially in elderly patients. In this study, we propose to characterize and analyze the cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory systems using the Poincaré plot. A total of 46 cardiomyopathy patients and 36 healthy subjets were analyzed. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was used to stratify patients with low risk (LR: LVEF > 35%, 16 patients), and high risk (HR: LVEF ≤ 35%, 30 patients) of heart attack. RR, SBP and T Tot time series were extracted from the ECG, blood pressure and respiratory flow signals, respectively. Parameters that describe the scatterplott of Poincaré method, related to short- and long-term variabilities, acceleration and deceleration of the dynamic system, and the complex correlation index were extracted. The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and the support vector machines (SVM) classification methods were used to analyze the results of the extracted parameters. The results showed that cardiac parameters were the best to discriminate between HR and LR groups, especially the complex correlation index (p = 0.009). Analising the interaction, the best result was obtained with the relation between the difference of the standard deviation of the cardiac and respiratory system (p = 0.003). When comparing HR vs LR groups, the best classification was obtained applying SVM method, using an ANOVA kernel, with an accuracy of 98.12%. An accuracy of 97.01% was obtained by comparing patients versus healthy, with a SVM classifier and Laplacian kernel. The morphology of Poincaré plot introduces parameters that allow the characterization of the cardiorespiratory system dynamics.

  4. A foot risk classification system to predict diabetic amputation in Pima Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, J A; Reiber, G E; Nelson, R G; Greene, T

    1996-07-01

    To quantify the contribution of various risk factors to the risk of amputation in diabetic patients and to develop a foot risk scoring system based on clinical data. A population case-control study was undertaken. Eligible subjects were 1) 25-85 years of age, 2) diabetic, 3) 50% or more Pima or Tohono O'odham Indian, 4) lived in the Gila River Indian Community, and 5) had had at least one National Institutes of Health research examination. Case patients had had an incident lower extremity amputation between 1983 and 1992; control subjects had no amputation by 1992. Medical records were reviewed to determine risk conditions and health status before the pivotal event that led to the amputation. Sixty-one people with amputations were identified and compared with 183 control subjects. Men were more likely to suffer amputation than women (odds ratio [OR] 6.5, 95% CI 2.6-15), and people with diabetic eye, renal, or cardiovascular disease were more likely to undergo amputation than those without (OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.7-12). The risk of amputation was almost equally associated with these foot risk factors: peripheral neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, bony deformities, and a history of foot ulcers. After controlling for demographic differences and diabetes severity, the ORs for amputation with one foot risk factor was 2.1 (95% CI 1.4-3.3), with two risk factors, 4.5 (95% CI 2.9-6.9), and with three or four risk factors, 9.7 (95% CI 6.3-14.8). Male Sex, end-organ complications of eye, heart, and kidney, and poor glucose control were associated with a higher amputation rate. Peripheral neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, deformity, and a prior ulcer were similarly equally associated with an increased risk of lower extremity amputation.

  5. Potential risk for healthy siblings to develop schizophrenia: evidence from pattern classification with whole-brain connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meijie; Zeng, Ling-Li; Shen, Hui; Liu, Zhening; Hu, Dewen

    2012-03-28

    Recent resting-state functional connectivity MRI studies using group-level statistical analysis have demonstrated the inheritable characters of schizophrenia. The objective of the present study was to use pattern classification as a means to investigate schizophrenia inheritance based on the whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity at the individual subject level. One-against-one pattern classifications were made amongst three groups (i.e. patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, healthy siblings, and healthy controls after preprocessing), resulting in an 80.4% separation between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, a 77.6% separation between schizophrenia patients and their healthy siblings, and a 78.7% separation between healthy siblings and healthy controls, respectively. These results suggest that the healthy siblings of schizophrenia patients have an altered resting-state functional connectivity pattern compared with healthy controls. Thus, healthy siblings may have a potential higher risk for developing schizophrenia compared with the general population. Moreover, this pattern differed from that of schizophrenia patients and may contribute to the normal behavior exhibition of healthy siblings in daily life.

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  7. Managing Sensitive Information: DOD Can More Effectively Reduce the Risk of Classification Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    D'Agostino, Davi M; Borseth, Ann; Fenton, Mattias; Hatton, Adam; Hills, Barbara; Keefer, David; Mayfield, David; Reid, Jim; Richardson, Terry; Schwartz, Marc

    2006-01-01

    ...) information security program are increasing the risk of misclassification. DoD's information security program is decentralized to the DoD component level, and the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (OUSD...

  8. Radioactive and mixed waste - risk as a basis for waste classification. Symposium proceedings No. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The management of risks from radioactive and chemical materials has been a major environmental concern in the United states for the past two or three decades. Risk management of these materials encompasses the remediation of past disposal practices as well as development of appropriate strategies and controls for current and future operations. This symposium is concerned primarily with low-level radioactive wastes and mixed wastes. Individual reports were processed separately for the Department of Energy databases

  9. Radioactive and mixed waste - risk as a basis for waste classification. Symposium proceedings No. 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-06-21

    The management of risks from radioactive and chemical materials has been a major environmental concern in the United states for the past two or three decades. Risk management of these materials encompasses the remediation of past disposal practices as well as development of appropriate strategies and controls for current and future operations. This symposium is concerned primarily with low-level radioactive wastes and mixed wastes. Individual reports were processed separately for the Department of Energy databases.

  10. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  11. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  12. An Evaluation of Peak Finding for DVR Classification of Biological Data

    KAUST Repository

    Knoll, Aaron

    2012-01-01

    In medicine and the life sciences, volume data are frequently entropic, containing numerous features at different scales as well as significant noise from the scan source. Conventional transfer function approaches for direct volume rendering have difficulty handling such data, resulting in poor classification or undersampled rendering. Peak finding addresses issues in classifying noisy data by explicitly solving for isosurfaces at desired peaks in a transfer function. As a result, one can achieve better classification and visualization with fewer samples and correspondingly higher performance. This paper applies peak finding to several medical and biological data sets, particularly examining its potential in directly rendering unfiltered and unsegmented data.

  13. Evaluating Method Engineer Performance: an error classification and preliminary empirical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Kelly

    1998-11-01

    Full Text Available We describe an approach to empirically test the use of metaCASE environments to model methods. Both diagrams and matrices have been proposed as a means for presenting the methods. These different paradigms may have their own effects on how easily and well users can model methods. We extend Batra's classification of errors in data modelling to cover metamodelling, and use it to measure the performance of a group of metamodellers using either diagrams or matrices. The tentative results from this pilot study confirm the usefulness of the classification, and show some interesting differences between the paradigms.

  14. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  15. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Rosswog

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. METHODS: A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n = 75 for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n = 411 for risk score development, and a validation set (n = 209. Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. RESULTS: The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9 ± 3.4 vs 63.6 ± 14.5 vs 31.0 ± 5.4; P < .001, and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients.

  16. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

    2017-12-01

    Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  18. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  19. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  20. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  1. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  2. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  3. International classification of function, disability and health framework for fall risk stratification in community dwelling older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majumi M. Noohu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Falls is an important cause for mortality and morbidity in older adults. The fall risk assessment is an integral component of fall prevention in older adults. The international classification of function, disability and health (ICF can be an ideal comprehensive model for fall risk assessment. There is lack of information relating ICF and fall risk assessment in community dwelling older adults. In this study we tried to assess the fall risk using different domains of ICF using various clinical tools. A total of 255 subjects were recruited through convenient sampling method from geriatric clinic (OPD of All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi. The study was single session cross-section design. The body mass index (BMI, grip strength, depression score (Geriatric depression scale:short form; GDS-S and co morbidities were used to assess body function and structure domain, timed up and go (TUG, Berg balance scale (BBS and elderly fall screening test (EFST scores were used for activity domain, selfreported cause of fall, medications and uses of assistive device for environmental factors. Then the association of body function and structure, activity and environmental factors were determined with falls. There was an association of fall in analysis in subjects with no fall and one or more falls for, BMI, grip strength (kg, GDS-S score, no. of co morbidities, chronic pain, TUG, BBS, TUG (s, BBS, EFST, slip/trip, walking cane, hypoglycemic and antihypertensives medications (unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio.The diabetes, and hyper tension showed association for adjusted odds ratio only. In subjects with one fall and more than one fall, TUG, BBS, EFST, GDS-S score, NSAIDS and antidepressants use showed a significant association with fall (unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio. The ICF may be used in routine for fall risk assessment in community dwelling older adults.

  4. [Evaluation of the capacity of the APR-DRG classification system to predict hospital mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marco, Maria Francesca; Lorenzoni, Luca; Addari, Piero; Nante, Nicola

    2002-01-01

    Inpatient mortality has increasingly been used as an hospital outcome measure. Comparing mortality rates across hospitals requires adjustment for patient risks before making inferences about quality of care based on patient outcomes. Therefore it is essential to dispose of well performing severity measures. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the All Patient Refined DRG system to predict inpatient mortality for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pneumonia and ischemic stroke. Administrative records were used in this analysis. We used two statistics methods to assess the ability of the APR-DRG to predict mortality: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (referred to as the c-statistic) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The database for the study included 19,212 discharges for stroke, pneumonia, myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure from fifteen hospital participating in the Italian APR-DRG Project. A multivariate analysis was performed to predict mortality for each condition in study using age, sex and APR-DRG risk mortality subclass as independent variables. Inpatient mortality rate ranges from 9.7% (pneumonia) to 16.7% (stroke). Model discrimination, calculated using the c-statistic, was 0.91 for myocardial infarction, 0.68 for stroke, 0.78 for pneumonia and 0.71 for congestive heart failure. The model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Leme-show test was quite good. The performance of the APR-DRG scheme when used on Italian hospital activity records is similar to that reported in literature and it seems to improve by adding age and sex to the model. The APR-DRG system does not completely capture the effects of these variables. In some cases, the better performance might be due to the inclusion of specific complications in the risk-of-mortality subclass assignment.

  5. Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMinn, William R; Yang, Qinli; Scholz, Miklas

    2010-09-01

    Severe rainfall events have become increasingly common in Europe. Flood defence engineering works are highly capital intensive and can be limited by land availability, leaving land and communities exposed to repeated flooding. Any adaptive drainage structure must have engineered inlets and outlets that control the water level and the rate of release. In Scotland, there are a relatively high number of drinking water reservoirs (operated by Scottish Water), which fall within this defined category and could contribute to flood management control. Reducing the rate of runoff from the upper reaches of a catchment will reduce the volume and peak flows of flood events downstream, thus allowing flood defences to be reduced in size, decreasing the corresponding capital costs. A database of retention basins with flood control potential has been developed for Scotland. The research shows that the majority of small and former drinking water reservoirs are kept full and their spillways are continuously in operation. Utilising some of the available capacity to contribute to flood control could reduce the costs of complying with the EU Flood Directive. Furthermore, the application of a previously developed classification model for Baden in Germany for the Scottish data set showed a lower diversity for basins in Scotland due to less developed infrastructure. The principle value of this approach is a clear and unambiguous categorisation, based on standard variables, which can help to promote communication and understanding between stakeholders. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Logistic regression and multiple classification analyses to explore risk factors of under-5 mortality in bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhowmik, K.R.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Logistic regression (LR) analysis is the most common statistical methodology to find out the determinants of childhood mortality. However, the significant predictors cannot be ranked according to their influence on the response variable. Multiple classification (MC) analysis can be applied to identify the significant predictors with a priority index which helps to rank the predictors. The main objective of the study is to find the socio-demographic determinants of childhood mortality at neonatal, post-neonatal, and post-infant period by fitting LR model as well as to rank those through MC analysis. The study is conducted using the data of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 where birth and death information of children were collected from their mothers. Three dichotomous response variables are constructed from children age at death to fit the LR and MC models. Socio-economic and demographic variables significantly associated with the response variables separately are considered in LR and MC analyses. Both the LR and MC models identified the same significant predictors for specific childhood mortality. For both the neonatal and child mortality, biological factors of children, regional settings, and parents socio-economic status are found as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd significant groups of predictors respectively. Mother education and household environment are detected as major significant predictors of post-neonatal mortality. This study shows that MC analysis with or without LR analysis can be applied to detect determinants with rank which help the policy makers taking initiatives on a priority basis. (author)

  7. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  8. Research on the domestic application strategy of classification of SSCs with risk information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Seong Soo; Kim, Gi Yong; Seo, Jung Kwan [Atomic Creative Technology Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-02-15

    In this study, US NRC's regulatory position for risk-informed SSC categorization was reviewed, and the methodology for risk-informed SSC categorization suggested by NEI was reviewed. The importance measure analysis for safety class pumps and valves in KSNP was performed and re-categorization of those pumps and valves was performed. The option 2 implementation experience of US utilities were collected and the cost-benefit analysis result was analyzed. Based on that, the cost-benefit analysis was tried for the case of option 2 implementation in Korea. Finally, the institutionalization method for Korea was suggested.

  9. Evaluating heat-related mortality in Korea by objective classifications of 'air masses'

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Huth, Radan; Kim, J.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 10 (2010), s. 1484-1501 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : weather type classifications * air masses * biometeorology * human mortality * South Korea Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.479, year: 2010

  10. Evaluation of Different Methods for Soil Classifications by Using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H Sanaeinejad

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Soil salinity is an important factor that affects plant growth and reduces production of plantat different growth stages Remote sensing technology and GIS have a great potential for monitoring dynamic soil processes such as salinity. In the present study the efficiency of remote sensing technology and its integration with GIS was examined to estimate soil salinity for Neyshabour basin. Different classification methods for soil salinity were also investigated. We used 6 bands of LandSat ETM+ for this study. Classification results obtained from applying mathematical models for the images were compared with different band combinations results. The area of saline and non saline soil classes were identified in the study area based on the both methods and also based on the combination of the two methods. The results showed that the best method for soil classification was using of the two methods in the first stage to separate two classes of saline and non saline soils and then classifying the non saline soils in the second stage. As the variation in the numerical values of the image for different soil salinity in the study area was small, it was concluded that there is a limit potential of LandSat ETM+ images for identifying and classification of soil salinity in such an area.

  11. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  12. Clinical relevance and effect of surgical wound classification in appendicitis: Retrospective evaluation of wound classification discrepancies between surgeons, Swissnoso-trained infection control nurse, and histology as well as surgical site infection rates by wound class.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Chan, Anastasija; Gingert, Christian; Angst, Eliane; Hetzer, Franc Heinrich

    2017-07-01

    Surgical wound classification (SWC) is used for risk stratification of surgical site infection (SSI) and serves as the basis for measuring quality of care. The objective was to examine the accuracy and reliability of SWC. This study was purposed to evaluate the discrepancies in SWC as assessed by three groups: surgeons, an infection control nurse, and histopathologic evaluation. The secondary aim was to compare the risk-stratified SSI rates using the different SWC methods for 30 d postoperatively. An analysis was performed of the appendectomies from January 2013 to June 2014 in the Cantonal Hospital of Schaffhausen. SWC was assigned by the operating surgeon at the end of the procedure and retrospectively reviewed by a Swissnoso-trained infection control nurse after reading the operative and pathology report. The level of agreement among the three different SWC assessment groups was determined using kappa statistic. SSI rates were analyzed using a chi-square test. In 246 evaluated cases, the kappa scores for interrater reliability among the SWC assessments across the three groups ranged from 0.05 to 0.2 signifying slight agreement between the groups. SSIs were more frequently associated with trained infection control nurse-assigned SWC than with surgeons based SWC. Our study demonstrated a considerable discordance in the SWC assessments performed by the three groups. Unfortunately, the currently practiced SWC system suffers from ambiguity in definition and/or implementation of these definitions is not clearly stated. This lack of reliability is problematic and may lead to inappropriate comparisons within and between hospitals and surgeons. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Classification of fractures of the distal r[ius - Comparative evaluation of spiral CT images and X-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehnert, W.; Nitzsche, H.; Franck, W.M.; Amlang, M.

    1998-01-01

    Within the framework of a prospective study 35 patients with fractures of the distal r[ius safely diagnosed to require surgery have been [ditionally scanned by spiral CT. For more exact diagnostic evaluation of the joint surfaces and the fractures, multiplane reconstructions have been m[e to enhance the information obtained from the primary, axial tomographic images. Two experts independently performed classification on the basis of the X-rays and the CT scans, applying the AO scheme and the method of Frykman. Classifications according to the AO scheme were found to agree for only 28.6 % of the patients, which means that 57.1 % of the fractures shown by the X-rays were more or less underassessed. Classification according to Frykman's method revealed fewer deviations and agreement in 51.4 % of the cases. Biplanar r[iography continues to be considered as the standard method for examination of distal r[ius fractures, but it is recommended to perform spiral CT scans for evaluation of more complex distal r[ius fractures because these may require different therapies according to fracture types. (orig./CB) [de

  14. Segmentation Based Classification of 3D Urban Point Clouds: A Super-Voxel Based Approach with Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Trassoudaine

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Segmentation and classification of urban range data into different object classes have several challenges due to certain properties of the data, such as density variation, inconsistencies due to missing data and the large data size that require heavy computation and large memory. A method to classify urban scenes based on a super-voxel segmentation of sparse 3D data obtained from LiDAR sensors is presented. The 3D point cloud is first segmented into voxels, which are then characterized by several attributes transforming them into super-voxels. These are joined together by using a link-chain method rather than the usual region growing algorithm to create objects. These objects are then classified using geometrical models and local descriptors. In order to evaluate the results, a new metric that combines both segmentation and classification results simultaneously is presented. The effects of voxel size and incorporation of RGB color and laser reflectance intensity on the classification results are also discussed. The method is evaluated on standard data sets using different metrics to demonstrate its efficacy.

  15. Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pastor, M.A.; Casado, M.J. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

    2012-10-15

    This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes. (orig.)

  16. Automatic classification of 6-month-old infants at familial risk for language-based learning disorder using a support vector machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zare, Marzieh; Rezvani, Zahra; Benasich, April A

    2016-07-01

    This study assesses the ability of a novel, "automatic classification" approach to facilitate identification of infants at highest familial risk for language-learning disorders (LLD) and to provide converging assessments to enable earlier detection of developmental disorders that disrupt language acquisition. Network connectivity measures derived from 62-channel electroencephalogram (EEG) recording were used to identify selected features within two infant groups who differed on LLD risk: infants with a family history of LLD (FH+) and typically-developing infants without such a history (FH-). A support vector machine was deployed; global efficiency and global and local clustering coefficients were computed. A novel minimum spanning tree (MST) approach was also applied. Cross-validation was employed to assess the resultant classification. Infants were classified with about 80% accuracy into FH+ and FH- groups with 89% specificity and precision of 92%. Clustering patterns differed by risk group and MST network analysis suggests that FH+ infants' EEG complexity patterns were significantly different from FH- infants. The automatic classification techniques used here were shown to be both robust and reliable and should provide valuable information when applied to early identification of risk or clinical groups. The ability to identify infants at highest risk for LLD using "automatic classification" strategies is a novel convergent approach that may facilitate earlier diagnosis and remediation. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

    2017-06-01

    The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  18. Evaluation of forest cover estimates for Haiti using supervised classification of Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churches, Christopher E.; Wampler, Peter J.; Sun, Wanxiao; Smith, Andrew J.

    2014-08-01

    This study uses 2010-2011 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery to estimate total forested area in Haiti. The thematic map was generated using radiometric normalization of digital numbers by a modified normalization method utilizing pseudo-invariant polygons (PIPs), followed by supervised classification of the mosaicked image using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Land Cover Classification System. Classification results were compared to other sources of land-cover data produced for similar years, with an emphasis on the statistics presented by the FAO. Three global land cover datasets (GLC2000, Globcover, 2009, and MODIS MCD12Q1), and a national-scale dataset (a land cover analysis by Haitian National Centre for Geospatial Information (CNIGS)) were reclassified and compared. According to our classification, approximately 32.3% of Haiti's total land area was tree covered in 2010-2011. This result was confirmed using an error-adjusted area estimator, which predicted a tree covered area of 32.4%. Standardization to the FAO's forest cover class definition reduces the amount of tree cover of our supervised classification to 29.4%. This result was greater than the reported FAO value of 4% and the value for the recoded GLC2000 dataset of 7.0%, but is comparable to values for three other recoded datasets: MCD12Q1 (21.1%), Globcover (2009) (26.9%), and CNIGS (19.5%). We propose that at coarse resolutions, the segmented and patchy nature of Haiti's forests resulted in a systematic underestimation of the extent of forest cover. It appears the best explanation for the significant difference between our results, FAO statistics, and compared datasets is the accuracy of the data sources and the resolution of the imagery used for land cover analyses. Analysis of recoded global datasets and results from this study suggest a strong linear relationship (R2 = 0.996 for tree cover) between spatial resolution and land cover estimates.

  19. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  20. Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

    2015-01-01

    Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

  1. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  2. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  3. Evaluation of a 5-tier scheme proposed for classification of sequence variants using bioinformatic and splicing assay data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walker, Logan C; Whiley, Phillip J; Houdayer, Claude

    2013-01-01

    BRCA1 and 176 BRCA2 unique variants, from 77 publications. At least six independent reviewers from research and/or clinical settings comprehensively examined splicing assay methods and data reported for 22 variant assays of 21 variants in four publications, and classified the variants using the 5-tier......Splicing assays are commonly undertaken in the clinical setting to assess the clinical relevance of sequence variants in disease predisposition genes. A 5-tier classification system incorporating both bioinformatic and splicing assay information was previously proposed as a method to provide...... of results, and the lack of quantitative data for the aberrant transcripts. We propose suggestions for minimum reporting guidelines for splicing assays, and improvements to the 5-tier splicing classification system to allow future evaluation of its performance as a clinical tool....

  4. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  5. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  6. Risk classification for nuclear facilities in connection with the illegal use of nuclear materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahm, W.; Naegele, G.; Sellinschegg, D.

    1976-01-01

    It is shown, and illustrated by an example, that specific conditions at a nuclear facility to a large extent determine the probability of a successful illegal attack against that facility. Therefore, a categorization of nuclear materials according to the associated hazards alone, as practised currently, does not appear to be sufficient for the establishment of a balanced national physical protection system. In this paper a possible way of categorizing nuclear facilities according to the associated risks, determined as objectively as possible, is discussed. It is felt that initially the analysis should be restricted to the determination of the conditional risks, associated with illegal acquisition and use of radioactive materials by a postulated hostile or similar group. (author)

  7. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  8. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  9. Dietary pattern classifications with nutrient intake and health-risk factors in Korean men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ji Eun; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Son, Say Jin; Ahn, Younjhin; Lee, Juyoung; Park, Chan; Lee, Lilha; Erickson, Kent L; Jung, In-Kyung

    2011-01-01

    This study was performed to identify dietary patterns in Korean men and to determine the associations among dietary patterns, nutrient intake, and health-risk factors. Using baseline data from the Korean Health and Genome Study, dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis of data from a validated food-frequency questionnaire, and associations between these dietary patterns and health-risk factors were analyzed. Three dietary patterns were identified: 1) the "animal-food" pattern (greater intake of meats, fish, and dairy products), 2) the "rice-vegetable" pattern (greater intake of rice, tofu, kimchi, soybean paste, vegetables, and seaweed), and 3) the "noodle-bread" pattern (greater intake of instant noodles, Chinese noodles, and bread). The animal-food pattern (preferred by younger people with higher income and education levels) had a positive correlation with obesity and hypercholesterolemia, whereas the rice-vegetable pattern (preferred by older people with lower income and educational levels) was positively associated with hypertension. The noodle-bread pattern (also preferred by younger people with higher income and education levels) had a positive association with abdominal obesity and hypercholesterolemia. This study identifies three unique dietary patterns in Korean men, which are independently associated with certain health-risk factors. The rice-vegetable dietary pattern, modified for a low sodium intake, might be a healthy dietary pattern for Korean men. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  11. Severe obesity and cardiometabolic risk in children: comparison from two international classification systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliana Valerio

    Full Text Available There is no agreed-upon definition for severe obesity (Sev-OB in children. We compared estimates of Sev-OB as defined by different cut-points of body mass index (BMI from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC or the World Health Organization (WHO curves and the ability of each set of cut-points to screen for the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors.Cross-sectional, multicenter study involving 3,340 overweight/obese young subjects. Sev-OB was defined as BMI ≥ 99(th percentile or ≥ 1.2 times the 95(th percentile of the CDC or the WHO curves. High blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, low High Density Lipoprotein -cholesterol and impaired fasting glucose were considered as cardiometabolic risk factors.The estimated prevalence of Sev-OB varied widely between the two reference systems. Either using the cut-point ≥ 99(th percentile or ≥ 1.2 times the 95(th percentile, less children were defined as Sev-OB by CDC than WHO (46.8 vs. 89.5%, and 63.3 vs. 80.4%, respectively p<0.001. The CDC 99(th percentile had lower sensitivity (58.5 vs 94.2, higher specificity (57.6 vs 12.3 and higher positive predictive value (34.4 vs 28.9 than WHO in identifying obese children with ≥ 2 cardiometabolic risk factors. These differences were mitigated using the 1.2 times the 95(th percentile (sensitivity 73.9 vs. 88.1; specificity 40.7 vs. 22.5; positive predictive value 32.1 vs. 30.1. Substantial agreement between growth curves was found using the 1.2 times the 95(th percentile, in particular in children ≤ 10 years.Estimates of Sev-OB and cardiometabolic risk as defined by different cut-points of BMI are influenced from the reference systems used. The 1.2 times the 95(th percentile of BMI of either CDC or WHO standard has a discriminatory advantage over the 99(th percentile for identifying severely obese children at increased cardiometabolic risk, particularly under 10 years of age.

  12. Evaluating an ensemble classification approach for crop diversityverification in Danish greening subsidy control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chellasamy, Menaka; Ferre, Ty; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in 2015, Danish farmers are obliged to meet specific crop diversification rules based on total land area and number of crops cultivated to be eligible for new greening subsidies. Hence, there is a need for the Danish government to extend their subsidy control system to verify farmers......’ declarations to war-rant greening payments under the new crop diversification rules. Remote Sensing (RS) technology has been used since 1992 to control farmers’ subsidies in Denmark. However, a proper RS-based approach is yet to be finalised to validate new crop diversity requirements designed for assessing...... compliance under the recent subsidy scheme (2014–2020); This study uses an ensemble classification approach(proposed by the authors in previous studies) for validating the crop diversity requirements of the new rules. The approach uses a neural network ensemble classification system with bi-temporal (spring...

  13. ACOUSTIC CLASSIFICATION OF FRESHWATER FISH SPECIES USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK: EVALUATION OF THE MODEL PERFORMANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulkarnaen Fahmi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydroacoustic techniques are a valuable tool for the stock assessments of many fish species. Nonetheless, such techniques are limited by problems of species identification. Several methods and techniques have been used in addressing the problem of acoustic identification species and one of them is Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs. In this paper, Back propagation (BP and Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP of the Artificial Neural Network were used to classify carp (Cyprinus carpio, tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus, and catfish (Pangasius hypothalmus. Classification was done using a set of descriptors extracted from the acoustic data records, i.e. Volume Back scattering (Sv, Target Strength (TS, Area Back scattering Strength, Skewness, Kurtosis, Depth, Height and Relative altitude. The results showed that the Multi Layer Perceptron approach performed better than the Back propagation. The classification rates was 85.7% with the multi layer perceptron (MLP compared to 84.8% with back propagation (BP ANN.

  14. Evaluation Methodology between Globalization and Localization Features Approaches for Skin Cancer Lesions Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, H. M.; Al-azawi, R. J.; Abdulhameed, A. A.

    2018-05-01

    Huge efforts have been put in the developing of diagnostic methods to skin cancer disease. In this paper, two different approaches have been addressed for detection the skin cancer in dermoscopy images. The first approach uses a global method that uses global features for classifying skin lesions, whereas the second approach uses a local method that uses local features for classifying skin lesions. The aim of this paper is selecting the best approach for skin lesion classification. The dataset has been used in this paper consist of 200 dermoscopy images from Pedro Hispano Hospital (PH2). The achieved results are; sensitivity about 96%, specificity about 100%, precision about 100%, and accuracy about 97% for globalization approach while, sensitivity about 100%, specificity about 100%, precision about 100%, and accuracy about 100% for Localization Approach, these results showed that the localization approach achieved acceptable accuracy and better than globalization approach for skin cancer lesions classification.

  15. Value of real-time shear wave elastography in evaluating classification of liver fibrosis: a Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WU Yue

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate the diagnostic value of real-time shear wave elastography (SWE technique in evaluating classification of liver fibrosis. MethodsPubMed, CNKI, CBM, VIP, and Wanfang Data were searched for Chinese and English articles on SWE for evaluating classification of liver fibrosis published from January 2010 to December 2016, and these articles were screened and evaluated. Meta-disc 1.4 software was used for the meta-analysis of the data in the articles included. ResultsA total of 11 English articles were included, with 1560 cases in total. In the ≥F2 group, SWE had a pooled sensitivity of 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.82-0.87, a specificity of 0.79 (95%CI:0.76-0.82, and a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR of 30.81 (95%CI: 16.55-57.34. In the ≥F3 group, SWE had a pooled sensitivity of 0.87 (95%CI:0.84-0.91, a specificity of 0.84 (95%CI:0.82-0.87, and a DOR of 41.45 (95%CI:18.25-94.45. In the F4 group, SWE had a pooled sensitivity of 0.88 (95%CI:0.83-0.91, a specificity of 0.91 (95%CI:0.89-092, and a DOR of 67.18 (95%CI:30.03-150.31. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for these three groups were 0.914 7, 0.922 3, and 0.952 0, respectively. ConclusionSWE has a high diagnostic value in evaluating the classification of liver fibrosis and can be used to determine liver fibrosis stage in clinical practice.

  16. Synoptic-climatological evaluation of the classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan; Beck, Ch.; Kučerová, Monika

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2710-2726 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811; GA MŠk OC 115 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : circulation types * classification * synoptic climatology * COST733 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4546/full

  17. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  18. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  19. When machine vision meets histology: A comparative evaluation of model architecture for classification of histology sections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Cheng; Han, Ju; Borowsky, Alexander; Parvin, Bahram; Wang, Yunfu; Chang, Hang

    2017-01-01

    Classification of histology sections in large cohorts, in terms of distinct regions of microanatomy (e.g., stromal) and histopathology (e.g., tumor, necrosis), enables the quantification of tumor composition, and the construction of predictive models of genomics and clinical outcome. To tackle the large technical variations and biological heterogeneities, which are intrinsic in large cohorts, emerging systems utilize either prior knowledge from pathologists or unsupervised feature learning for invariant representation of the underlying properties in the data. However, to a large degree, the architecture for tissue histology classification remains unexplored and requires urgent systematical investigation. This paper is the first attempt to provide insights into three fundamental questions in tissue histology classification: I. Is unsupervised feature learning preferable to human engineered features? II. Does cellular saliency help? III. Does the sparse feature encoder contribute to recognition? We show that (a) in I, both Cellular Morphometric Feature and features from unsupervised feature learning lead to superior performance when compared to SIFT and [Color, Texture]; (b) in II, cellular saliency incorporation impairs the performance for systems built upon pixel-/patch-level features; and (c) in III, the effect of the sparse feature encoder is correlated with the robustness of features, and the performance can be consistently improved by the multi-stage extension of systems built upon both Cellular Morphmetric Feature and features from unsupervised feature learning. These insights are validated with two cohorts of Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) and Kidney Clear Cell Carcinoma (KIRC). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  1. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  3. The Society for Vascular Surgery lower extremity threatened limb classification system based on Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI) correlates with risk of major amputation and time to wound healing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Luke X; Branco, Bernardino C; Armstrong, David G; Mills, Joseph L

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the new Society for Vascular Surgery (SVS) Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI) classification system correlates with important clinical outcomes for limb salvage and wound healing. A total of 201 consecutive patients with threatened limbs treated from 2010 to 2011 in an academic medical center were analyzed. These patients were stratified into clinical stages 1 to 4 on the basis of the SVS WIfI classification. The SVS objective performance goals of major amputation, 1-year amputation-free survival (AFS) rate, and wound healing time (WHT) according to WIfI clinical stages were compared. The mean age was 58 years (79% male, 93% with diabetes). Forty-two patients required major amputation (21%); 159 (78%) had limb salvage. The amputation group had a significantly higher prevalence of advanced stage 4 patients (P healing. As the clinical stage progresses, the risk of major amputation increases, 1-year AFS declines, and WHT is prolonged. We further demonstrated benefit of revascularization to improve WHT in selected patients, especially those in stage 3. Future efforts are warranted to incorporate the SVS WIfI classification into clinical decision-making algorithms in conjunction with a comorbidity index and anatomic classification. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  5. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  7. Significance, definition, classification and risk factors of chronic kidney disease in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, A M

    2015-03-01

    Renal dysfunction or chronic kidney disease (CKD) is found in 10% of the global population and is classified into five stages according to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). No matter where a patient lives, estimation of the GFR is mandatory for decision-making and obtained by the simple measurement of a serum creatinine level. The objective of diagnosing CKD lies in its future prevention, early detection and proper treatment, which will prevent or delay functional deterioration. Primary hypertension (PH) occurs in 25% of South Africa (SA)s black population and is the putative cause of stage 5 CKD in 40 - 60% of these patients. Moreover, in this group, stage 5 CKD occurs at a relatively young age (35 - 45 years) compared with other population groups in whom stage 5 CKD resulting from PH usually occurs between 60 and 70 years of age. In the cohort study, PH has been found in 12 - 16% of black school learners (mean age 17 years) compared with 1.8 - 2% of other ethnic groups (mixed race, Asian, white). End-stage renal failure (ESRF) is the fifth most common cause of death in SA, excluding post-traumatic cases. In addition, undiagnosed or poorly controlled PH is a potent risk factor for other cardiovascular disease (CVD), e.g. congestive cardiac failure, myocardial infarction, stroke. Significant protein is also associated with CVD and protein >1 g/d is a significant risk factor for ESRF.

  8. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  9. Evaluation of the Chinese Fine Spatial Resolution Hyperspectral Satellite TianGong-1 in Urban Land-Cover Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueke Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The successful launch of the Chinese high spatial resolution hyperspectral satellite TianGong-1 (TG-1 opens up new possibilities for applications of remotely-sensed satellite imagery. One of the main goals of the TG-1 mission is to provide observations of surface attributes at local and landscape spatial scales to map urban land cover accurately using the hyperspectral technique. This study attempted to evaluate the TG-1 datasets for urban feature analysis, using existing data over Beijing, China, by comparing the TG-1 (with a spatial resolution of 10 m to EO-1 Hyperion (with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The spectral feature of TG-1 was first analyzed and, thus, finding out optimal hyperspectral wavebands useful for the discrimination of urban areas. Based on this, the pixel-based maximum likelihood classifier (PMLC, pixel-based support vector machine (PSVM, hybrid maximum likelihood classifier (HMLC, and hybrid support vector machine (HSVM were implemented, as well as compared in the application of mapping urban land cover types. The hybrid classifier approach, which integrates the pixel-based classifier and the object-based segmentation approach, was demonstrated as an effective alternative to the conventional pixel-based classifiers for processing the satellite hyperspectral data, especially the fine spatial resolution data. For TG-1 imagery, the pixel-based urban classification was obtained with an average overall accuracy of 89.1%, whereas the hybrid urban classification was obtained with an average overall accuracy of 91.8%. For Hyperion imagery, the pixel-based urban classification was obtained with an average overall accuracy of 85.9%, whereas the hybrid urban classification was obtained with an average overall accuracy of 86.7%. Overall, it can be concluded that the fine spatial resolution satellite hyperspectral data TG-1 is promising in delineating complex urban scenes, especially when using an appropriate classifier, such as the

  10. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  11. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  12. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  13. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  14. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  15. Quantitative evaluation of variations in rule-based classifications of land cover in urban neighbourhoods using WorldView-2 imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belgiu, Mariana; ǎguţ, Lucian, , Dr; Strobl, Josef

    2014-01-01

    The increasing availability of high resolution imagery has triggered the need for automated image analysis techniques, with reduced human intervention and reproducible analysis procedures. The knowledge gained in the past might be of use to achieving this goal, if systematically organized into libraries which would guide the image analysis procedure. In this study we aimed at evaluating the variability of digital classifications carried out by three experts who were all assigned the same interpretation task. Besides the three classifications performed by independent operators, we developed an additional rule-based classification that relied on the image classifications best practices found in the literature, and used it as a surrogate for libraries of object characteristics. The results showed statistically significant differences among all operators who classified the same reference imagery. The classifications carried out by the experts achieved satisfactory results when transferred to another area for extracting the same classes of interest, without modification of the developed rules.

  16. Molecular phylogenetic evaluation of classification and scenarios of character evolution in calcareous sponges (Porifera, Class Calcarea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Voigt

    Full Text Available Calcareous sponges (Phylum Porifera, Class Calcarea are known to be taxonomically difficult. Previous molecular studies have revealed many discrepancies between classically recognized taxa and the observed relationships at the order, family and genus levels; these inconsistencies question underlying hypotheses regarding the evolution of certain morphological characters. Therefore, we extended the available taxa and character set by sequencing the complete small subunit (SSU rDNA and the almost complete large subunit (LSU rDNA of additional key species and complemented this dataset by substantially increasing the length of available LSU sequences. Phylogenetic analyses provided new hypotheses about the relationships of Calcarea and about the evolution of certain morphological characters. We tested our phylogeny against competing phylogenetic hypotheses presented by previous classification systems. Our data reject the current order-level classification by again finding non-monophyletic Leucosolenida, Clathrinida and Murrayonida. In the subclass Calcinea, we recovered a clade that includes all species with a cortex, which is largely consistent with the previously proposed order Leucettida. Other orders that had been rejected in the current system were not found, but could not be rejected in our tests either. We found several additional families and genera polyphyletic: the families Leucascidae and Leucaltidae and the genus Leucetta in Calcinea, and in Calcaronea the family Amphoriscidae and the genus Ute. Our phylogeny also provided support for the vaguely suspected close relationship of several members of Grantiidae with giantortical diactines to members of Heteropiidae. Similarly, our analyses revealed several unexpected affinities, such as a sister group relationship between Leucettusa (Leucaltidae and Leucettidae and between Leucascandra (Jenkinidae and Sycon carteri (Sycettidae. According to our results, the taxonomy of Calcarea is in

  17. Evaluation of feature selection algorithms for classification in temporal lobe epilepsy based on MR images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chunren; Guo, Shengwen; Cheng, Lina; Wang, Wensheng; Wu, Kai

    2017-02-01

    It's very important to differentiate the temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) patients from healthy people and localize the abnormal brain regions of the TLE patients. The cortical features and changes can reveal the unique anatomical patterns of brain regions from the structural MR images. In this study, structural MR images from 28 normal controls (NC), 18 left TLE (LTLE), and 21 right TLE (RTLE) were acquired, and four types of cortical feature, namely cortical thickness (CTh), cortical surface area (CSA), gray matter volume (GMV), and mean curvature (MCu), were explored for discriminative analysis. Three feature selection methods, the independent sample t-test filtering, the sparse-constrained dimensionality reduction model (SCDRM), and the support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE), were investigated to extract dominant regions with significant differences among the compared groups for classification using the SVM classifier. The results showed that the SVM-REF achieved the highest performance (most classifications with more than 92% accuracy), followed by the SCDRM, and the t-test. Especially, the surface area and gray volume matter exhibited prominent discriminative ability, and the performance of the SVM was improved significantly when the four cortical features were combined. Additionally, the dominant regions with higher classification weights were mainly located in temporal and frontal lobe, including the inferior temporal, entorhinal cortex, fusiform, parahippocampal cortex, middle frontal and frontal pole. It was demonstrated that the cortical features provided effective information to determine the abnormal anatomical pattern and the proposed method has the potential to improve the clinical diagnosis of the TLE.

  18. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  19. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  20. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  2. Evaluation and integration of disparate classification systems for clefts of the lip

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathie H Wang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Orofacial clefting is a common birth defect with wide phenotypic variability. Many systems have been developed to classify cleft patterns to facilitate diagnosis, management, surgical treatment, and research. In this review, we examine the rationale for different existing classification schemes and determine their inter-relationships, as well as strengths and deficiencies for subclassification of clefts of the lip. The various systems differ in how they describe and define attributes of cleft lip phenotypes. Application and analysis of the cleft lip classifications reveal discrepancies that may result in errors when comparing studies that use different systems. These inconsistencies in terminology, variable levels of subclassification, and ambiguity in some descriptions may confound analyses and impede further research aimed at understanding the genetics and etiology of clefts, development of effective treatment options for patients, as well as cross-institutional comparisons of outcome measures. Identification and reconciliation of discrepancies among existing systems is the first step towards creating a common standard to allow for a more explicit interpretation that will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the causes and manifestations of phenotypic variations in clefting.

  3. Classifying Classifications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Debus, Michael S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper critically analyzes seventeen game classifications. The classifications were chosen on the basis of diversity, ranging from pre-digital classification (e.g. Murray 1952), over game studies classifications (e.g. Elverdam & Aarseth 2007) to classifications of drinking games (e.g. LaBrie et...... al. 2013). The analysis aims at three goals: The classifications’ internal consistency, the abstraction of classification criteria and the identification of differences in classification across fields and/or time. Especially the abstraction of classification criteria can be used in future endeavors...... into the topic of game classifications....

  4. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for improved risk assessment for Down's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu, Aki; Korpimäki, Teemu; Kivelä, Petri; Pahikkala, Tapio; Sairanen, Mikko

    2018-05-04

    Prenatal screening generates a great amount of data that is used for predicting risk of various disorders. Prenatal risk assessment is based on multiple clinical variables and overall performance is defined by how well the risk algorithm is optimized for the population in question. This article evaluates machine learning algorithms to improve performance of first trimester screening of Down syndrome. Machine learning algorithms pose an adaptive alternative to develop better risk assessment models using the existing clinical variables. Two real-world data sets were used to experiment with multiple classification algorithms. Implemented models were tested with a third, real-world, data set and performance was compared to a predicate method, a commercial risk assessment software. Best performing deep neural network model gave an area under the curve of 0.96 and detection rate of 78% with 1% false positive rate with the test data. Support vector machine model gave area under the curve of 0.95 and detection rate of 61% with 1% false positive rate with the same test data. When compared with the predicate method, the best support vector machine model was slightly inferior, but an optimized deep neural network model was able to give higher detection rates with same false positive rate or similar detection rate but with markedly lower false positive rate. This finding could further improve the first trimester screening for Down syndrome, by using existing clinical variables and a large training data derived from a specific population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Restructuring supervision and reconfiguration of skill mix in community pharmacy: Classification of perceived safety and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Fay; Willis, Sarah C; Noyce, Peter R; Schafheutle, Ellen I

    2016-01-01

    Broadening the range of services provided through community pharmacy increases workloads for pharmacists that could be alleviated by reconfiguring roles within the pharmacy team. To examine pharmacists' and pharmacy technicians (PTs)' perceptions of how safe it would be for support staff to undertake a range of pharmacy activities during a pharmacist's absence. Views on supervision, support staff roles, competency and responsibility were also sought. Informed by nominal group discussions, a questionnaire was developed and distributed to a random sample of 1500 pharmacists and 1500 PTs registered in England. Whilst focused on community pharmacy practice, hospital pharmacy respondents were included, as more advanced skill mix models may provide valuable insights. Respondents were asked to rank a list of 22 pharmacy activities in terms of perceived risk and safety of these activities being performed by support staff during a pharmacist's absence. Descriptive and comparative statistic analyses were conducted. Six-hundred-and-forty-two pharmacists (43.2%) and 854 PTs (57.3%) responded; the majority worked in community pharmacy. Dependent on agreement levels with perceived safety, from community pharmacists and PTs, and hospital pharmacists and PTs, the 22 activities were grouped into 'safe' (n = 7), 'borderline' (n = 9) and 'unsafe' (n = 6). Activities such as assembly and labeling were considered 'safe,' clinical activities were considered 'unsafe.' There were clear differences between pharmacists and PTs, and sectors (community pharmacy vs. hospital). Community pharmacists were most cautious (particularly mobile and portfolio pharmacists) about which activities they felt support staff could safely perform; PTs in both sectors felt significantly more confident performing particularly technical activities than pharmacists. This paper presents novel empirical evidence informing the categorization of pharmacy activities into 'safe,' 'borderline' or 'unsafe

  6. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  7. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  8. Evaluation of Digital Classification of Polarimetric SAR Data for Iron-Mineralized Laterites Mapping in the Amazon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleber G. Oliveira

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the potential of C- and L-band polarimetric SAR data for the discrimination of iron-mineralized laterites in the Brazilian Amazon region. The study area is the N1 plateau located on the northern border of the Carajás Mineral Province, the most important Brazilian mineral province which has numerous mineral deposits, particularly the world’s largest iron deposits. The plateau is covered by low-density savanna-type vegetation (campus rupestres which contrasts visibly with the dense equatorial forest. The laterites are subdivided into three units: chemical crust, iron-ore duricrust, and hematite, of which only the latter two are of economic interest. Full polarimetric data from the airborne R99B sensor of the SIVAM/CENSIPAM (L-band system and the RADARSAT-2 satellite (C-band were evaluated. The study focused on an assessment of distinct schemes for digital classification based on decomposition theory and hybrid approach, which incorporates statistical analysis as input data derived from the target decomposition modeling. The results indicated that the polarimetric classifications presented a poor performance, with global Kappa values below 0.20. The accuracy for the identification of units of economic interest varied from 55% to 89%, albeit with high commission error values. In addition, the results using L-band were considered superior compared to C-band, which suggest that the roughness scale for laterite discrimination in the area is nearer to L than to C-band.

  9. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  10. New vascular classification of port-wine stains: improving prediction of Sturge-Weber risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waelchli, R; Aylett, S E; Robinson, K; Chong, W K; Martinez, A E; Kinsler, V A

    2014-10-01

    Facial port-wine stains (PWSs) are usually isolated findings; however, when associated with cerebral and ocular vascular malformations they form part of the classical triad of Sturge-Weber syndrome (SWS). To evaluate the associations between the phenotype of facial PWS and the diagnosis of SWS in a cohort with a high rate of SWS. Records were reviewed of all 192 children with a facial PWS seen in 2011-13. Adverse outcome measures were clinical (seizures, abnormal neurodevelopment, glaucoma) and radiological [abnormal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)], modelled by multivariate logistic regression. The best predictor of adverse outcomes was a PWS involving any part of the forehead, delineated at its inferior border by a line joining the outer canthus of the eye to the top of the ear, and including the upper eyelid. This involves all three divisions of the trigeminal nerve, but corresponds well to the embryonic vascular development of the face. Bilateral distribution was not an independently significant phenotypic feature. Abnormal MRI was a better predictor of all clinical adverse outcome measures than PWS distribution; however, for practical reasons guidelines based on clinical phenotype are proposed. Facial PWS distribution appears to follow the embryonic vasculature of the face, rather than the trigeminal nerve. We propose that children with a PWS on any part of the 'forehead' should have an urgent ophthalmology review and a brain MRI. A prospective study has been established to test the validity of these guidelines. © The Authors. British Journal of Dermatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Association of Dermatologists.

  11. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    .8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

  12. Morphologic evaluation and classification of facial asymmetry using 3-dimensional computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Chaehwan; Paeng, Jun-Young; Lee, Janice S; Hong, Jongrak

    2012-05-01

    A systematic classification is needed for the diagnosis and surgical treatment of facial asymmetry. The purposes of this study were to analyze the skeletal structures of patients with facial asymmetry and to objectively classify these patients into groups according to these structural characteristics. Patients with facial asymmetry and recent computed tomographic images from 2005 through 2009 were included in this study, which was approved by the institutional review board. Linear measurements, angles, and reference planes on 3-dimensional computed tomograms were obtained, including maxillary (upper midline deviation, maxilla canting, and arch form discrepancy) and mandibular (menton deviation, gonion to midsagittal plane, ramus height, and frontal ramus inclination) measurements. All measurements were analyzed using paired t tests with Bonferroni correction followed by K-means cluster analysis using SPSS 13.0 to determine an objective classification of facial asymmetry in the enrolled patients. Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to verify differences among clustered groups. P < .05 was considered statistically significant. Forty-three patients (18 male, 25 female) were included in the study. They were classified into 4 groups based on cluster analysis. Their mean age was 24.3 ± 4.4 years. Group 1 included subjects (44% of patients) with asymmetry caused by a shift or lateralization of the mandibular body. Group 2 included subjects (39%) with a significant difference between the left and right ramus height with menton deviation to the short side. Group 3 included subjects (12%) with atypical asymmetry, including deviation of the menton to the short side, prominence of the angle/gonion on the larger side, and reverse maxillary canting. Group 4 included subjects (5%) with severe maxillary canting, ramus height differences, and menton deviation to the short side. In this study, patients with asymmetry were classified into 4 statistically distinct groups according to

  13. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  14. Dermal and inhalation acute toxic class methods: test procedures and biometric evaluations for the Globally Harmonized Classification System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzhütter, H G; Genschow, E; Diener, W; Schlede, E

    2003-05-01

    The acute toxic class (ATC) methods were developed for determining LD(50)/LC(50) estimates of chemical substances with significantly fewer animals than needed when applying conventional LD(50)/LC(50) tests. The ATC methods are sequential stepwise procedures with fixed starting doses/concentrations and a maximum of six animals used per dose/concentration. The numbers of dead/moribund animals determine whether further testing is necessary or whether the test is terminated. In recent years we have developed classification procedures for the oral, dermal and inhalation routes of administration by using biometric methods. The biometric approach assumes a probit model for the mortality probability of a single animal and assigns the chemical to that toxicity class for which the best concordance is achieved between the statistically expected and the observed numbers of dead/moribund animals at the various steps of the test procedure. In previous publications we have demonstrated the validity of the biometric ATC methods on the basis of data obtained for the oral ATC method in two-animal ring studies with 15 participants from six countries. Although the test procedures and biometric evaluations for the dermal and inhalation ATC methods have already been published, there was a need for an adaptation of the classification schemes to the starting doses/concentrations of the Globally Harmonized Classification System (GHS) recently adopted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Here we present the biometric evaluation of the dermal and inhalation ATC methods for the starting doses/concentrations of the GHS and of some other international classification systems still in use. We have developed new test procedures and decision rules for the dermal and inhalation ATC methods, which require significantly fewer animals to provide predictions of toxicity classes, that are equally good or even better than those achieved by using the conventional LD(50)/LC

  15. Security classification of information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quist, A.S.

    1993-04-01

    This document is the second of a planned four-volume work that comprehensively discusses the security classification of information. The main focus of Volume 2 is on the principles for classification of information. Included herein are descriptions of the two major types of information that governments classify for national security reasons (subjective and objective information), guidance to use when determining whether information under consideration for classification is controlled by the government (a necessary requirement for classification to be effective), information disclosure risks and benefits (the benefits and costs of classification), standards to use when balancing information disclosure risks and benefits, guidance for assigning classification levels (Top Secret, Secret, or Confidential) to classified information, guidance for determining how long information should be classified (classification duration), classification of associations of information, classification of compilations of information, and principles for declassifying and downgrading information. Rules or principles of certain areas of our legal system (e.g., trade secret law) are sometimes mentioned to .provide added support to some of those classification principles.

  16. The evaluation of an analytical protocol for the determination of substances in waste for hazard classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennebert, Pierre; Papin, Arnaud; Padox, Jean-Marie; Hasebrouck, Benoît

    2013-07-01

    The classification of waste as hazardous could soon be assessed in Europe using largely the hazard properties of its constituents, according to the the Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) regulation. Comprehensive knowledge of the component constituents of a given waste will therefore be necessary. An analytical protocol for determining waste composition is proposed, which includes using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) screening methods to identify major elements and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC-MS) screening techniques to measure organic compounds. The method includes a gross or indicator measure of 'pools' of higher molecular weight organic substances that are taken to be less bioactive and less hazardous, and of unresolved 'mass' during the chromatography of volatile and semi-volatile compounds. The concentration of some elements and specific compounds that are linked to specific hazard properties and are subject to specific regulation (examples include: heavy metals, chromium(VI), cyanides, organo-halogens, and PCBs) are determined by classical quantitative analysis. To check the consistency of the analysis, the sum of the concentrations (including unresolved 'pools') should give a mass balance between 90% and 110%. Thirty-two laboratory samples comprising different industrial wastes (liquids and solids) were tested by two routine service laboratories, to give circa 7000 parameter results. Despite discrepancies in some parameters, a satisfactory sum of estimated or measured concentrations (analytical balance) of 90% was reached for 20 samples (63% of the overall total) during this first test exercise, with identified reasons for most of the unsatisfactory results. Regular use of this protocol (which is now included in the French legislation) has enabled service laboratories to reach a 90% mass balance for nearly all the solid samples tested, and most of liquid samples (difficulties were caused in some samples from polymers in solution and

  17. Seeing It All: Evaluating Supervised Machine Learning Methods for the Classification of Diverse Otariid Behaviours.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique A Ladds

    Full Text Available Constructing activity budgets for marine animals when they are at sea and cannot be directly observed is challenging, but recent advances in bio-logging technology offer solutions to this problem. Accelerometers can potentially identify a wide range of behaviours for animals based on unique patterns of acceleration. However, when analysing data derived from accelerometers, there are many statistical techniques available which when applied to different data sets produce different classification accuracies. We investigated a selection of supervised machine learning methods for interpreting behavioural data from captive otariids (fur seals and sea lions. We conducted controlled experiments with 12 seals, where their behaviours were filmed while they were wearing 3-axis accelerometers. From video we identified 26 behaviours that could be grouped into one of four categories (foraging, resting, travelling and grooming representing key behaviour states for wild seals. We used data from 10 seals to train four predictive classification models: stochastic gradient boosting (GBM, random forests, support vector machine using four different kernels and a baseline model: penalised logistic regression. We then took the best parameters from each model and cross-validated the results on the two seals unseen so far. We also investigated the influence of feature statistics (describing some characteristic of the seal, testing the models both with and without these. Cross-validation accuracies were lower than training accuracy, but the SVM with a polynomial kernel was still able to classify seal behaviour with high accuracy (>70%. Adding feature statistics improved accuracies across all models tested. Most categories of behaviour -resting, grooming and feeding-were all predicted with reasonable accuracy (52-81% by the SVM while travelling was poorly categorised (31-41%. These results show that model selection is important when classifying behaviour and that by using

  18. Environmental hazards from natural hydrocarbons seepage: Integrated classification of risk from sediment chemistry, bioavailability and biomarkers responses in sentinel species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedetti, Maura; Gorbi, Stefania; Fattorini, Daniele; D'Errico, Giuseppe; Piva, Francesco; Pacitti, Davide; Regoli, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Potential effects of natural emissions of hydrocarbons in the marine environment have been poorly investigated. In this study, a multidisciplinary weight of evidence (WOE) study was carried out on a shallow seepage, integrating sediment chemistry with bioavailability and onset of subcellular responses (biomarkers) in caged eels and mussels. Results from different lines of evidence (LOEs) were elaborated within a quantitative WOE model which, based on logical flowcharts, provide synthetic indices of hazard for each LOE, before their integration in a quantitative risk assessment. Evaluations of different LOEs were not always in accordance and their overall elaboration summarized as Moderate the risk in the seepage area. This study provided first evidence of biological effects in organisms exposed to natural hydrocarbon emissions, confirming the limit of chemical characterization as stand-alone criteria for environmental quality assessment and the utility of multidisciplinary investigations to determine the good environmental status as required by Environmental Directives. -- Highlights: • Hazards from natural seepage were evaluated through a multidisciplinary WOE study. • Caged eels and mussels were chosen as bioindicator organisms. • Evaluations obtained from various LOEs were not always in accordance. • Biological effects of natural hydrocarbons release were demonstrated. • WOE approach could discriminate different levels of hazard in low impacted conditions. -- A multidisciplinary WOE study in a shallow coastal seepage summarized a Moderate level of risk based on integration of sediment chemistry with biological effects in caged organisms

  19. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  20. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  1. Four-group classification of left ventricular hypertrophy based on ventricular concentricity and dilatation identifies a low-risk subset of eccentric hypertrophy in hypertensive patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bang, Casper N; Gerdts, Eva; Aurigemma, Gerard P

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH; high LV mass [LVM]) is traditionally classified as concentric or eccentric based on LV relative wall thickness. We evaluated the prediction of subsequent adverse events in a new 4-group LVH classification based on LV dilatation (high LV end...

  2. China's community-based strategy of universal preconception care in rural areas at a population level using a novel risk classification system for stratifying couples´ preconception health status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qiongjie; Zhang, Shikun; Wang, Qiaomei; Shen, Haiping; Tian, Weidong; Chen, Jingqi; Acharya, Ganesh; Li, Xiaotian

    2016-12-28

    Preconception care (PCC) is recommended for optimizing a woman's health prior to pregnancy to minimize the risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the impact of strategy and a novel risk classification model of China´s "National Preconception Health Care Project" (NPHCP) in identifying risk factors and stratifying couples' preconception health status. We performed a secondary analysis of data collected by NPHCP during April 2010 to December 2012 in 220 selected counties in China. All couples enrolled in the project accepted free preconception health examination, risk evaluation, health education and medical advice. Risk factors were categorized into five preconception risk classes based on their amenability to prevention and treatment: A-avoidable risk factors, B- benefiting from targeted medical intervention, C-controllable but requiring close monitoring and treatment during pregnancy, D-diagnosable prenatally but not modifiable preconceptionally, X-pregnancy not advisable. Information on each couple´s socio-demographic and health status was recorded and further analyzed. Among the 2,142,849 couples who were enrolled to this study, the majority (92.36%) were from rural areas with low education levels (89.2% women and 88.3% men had education below university level). A total of 1463266 (68.29%) couples had one or more preconception risk factors mainly of category A, B and C, among which 46.25% were women and 51.92% were men. Category A risk factors were more common among men compared with women (38.13% versus 11.24%; P = 0.000). This project provided new insights into preconception health of Chinese couples of reproductive age. More than half of the male partners planning to father a child, were exposed to risk factors during the preconception period, suggesting that an integrated approach to PCC including both women and men is justified. Stratification based on the new risk classification model demonstrated that a majority of the

  3. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  4. Correlation of Estradiol Serum Levels with Classification of Osteoporosis Risk OSTA (Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tools for Asian in Menopause Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Maya Puspita

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In postmenopausal women, decreasing estrogen levels is a marker of ovarian dysfunction. Hypoestrogenic state has known increasing the risk of osteoporosis. Objective: To determine the correlation between estradiol serum levels with classification of osteoporosis risk OSTA (Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tools for Asian in menopausal women. Methods: This study was case series study which examined estradiol serum in menopausal women by ELISA and assess the osteoporosis risk using osteoporosis risk classification OSTA. Total 47 samples was collected at Dr. H.Adam malik, dr. Pirngadi, and RSU Networking in Medan. This research was conducted from May to December 2016. Data were statistically analyzed, and presented with Spearman test. Results: In this study, we found the mean levels of estradiol in menopausal women was 18.62 ± 16.85 ng / ml with OSTA osteoporosis risk score of 2.09 ± 2.45. There was a significant positive correlation between estradiol and risk of osteoporosis OSTA with correlation coefficient r = 0.825 and p <0.05. Conclusion: There is a strong positive correlation between serum levels of estradiol with OSTA osteoporosis risk assessment in menopausal women.

  5. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  6. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  7. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  8. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  9. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  10. The evaluation of an analytical protocol for the determination of substances in waste for hazard classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hennebert, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.hennebert@ineris.fr [INERIS – Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Domaine du Petit Arbois BP33, F-13545 Aix-en-Provence (France); Papin, Arnaud [INERIS, Parc Technologique ALATA, BP No. 2, 60550 Verneuil en Halatte (France); Padox, Jean-Marie [INERIS – Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Domaine du Petit Arbois BP33, F-13545 Aix-en-Provence (France); Hasebrouck, Benoît [INERIS, Parc Technologique ALATA, BP No. 2, 60550 Verneuil en Halatte (France)

    2013-07-15

    Highlights: • Knowledge of wastes in substances will be necessary to assess HP1–HP15 hazard properties. • A new analytical protocol is proposed for this and tested by two service laboratories on 32 samples. • Sixty-three percentage of the samples have a satisfactory analytical balance between 90% and 110%. • Eighty-four percentage of the samples were classified identically (Seveso Directive) for their hazardousness by the two laboratories. • The method, in progress, is being normalized in France and is be proposed to CEN. - Abstract: The classification of waste as hazardous could soon be assessed in Europe using largely the hazard properties of its constituents, according to the the Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) regulation. Comprehensive knowledge of the component constituents of a given waste will therefore be necessary. An analytical protocol for determining waste composition is proposed, which includes using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) screening methods to identify major elements and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC–MS) screening techniques to measure organic compounds. The method includes a gross or indicator measure of ‘pools’ of higher molecular weight organic substances that are taken to be less bioactive and less hazardous, and of unresolved ‘mass’ during the chromatography of volatile and semi-volatile compounds. The concentration of some elements and specific compounds that are linked to specific hazard properties and are subject to specific regulation (examples include: heavy metals, chromium(VI), cyanides, organo-halogens, and PCBs) are determined by classical quantitative analysis. To check the consistency of the analysis, the sum of the concentrations (including unresolved ‘pools’) should give a mass balance between 90% and 110%. Thirty-two laboratory samples comprising different industrial wastes (liquids and solids) were tested by two routine service laboratories, to give circa 7000 parameter

  11. Core Self-Evaluations as Personal Factors in the World Health Organization's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health Model: An Application in Persons with Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghmanian, Rana; Smedema, Susan Miller; Thompson, Kerry

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate Chan, Gelman, Ditchman, Kim, and Chiu's (2009) revised World Health Organization's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) model using core self-evaluations (CSE) to account for Personal Factors in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI). Method: One hundred eighty-seven adults with SCI were…

  12. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  13. Risk evaluation for motor operated valves in an Inservice Testing Program at a PWR nuclear power plant in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.C.; Chen, K.T.; Su, Y.L.; Ting, K.; Chien, F.T.; Li, G.D.; Huang, S.H.

    2012-01-01

    Safety related valves such as Motor Operated Valves (MOV), Air Operated Valves (AOV) or Check Valves (CV) play an important role in nuclear power plant. Functioning of these valves mainly aim at emergency reactivity control, post-accident residue heat removal, post-accident radioactivity removal and containment isolation when a design basis accident occurred. In order to maintain these valves under operable conditions, an Inservice Testing Program (IST) is defined for routine testing tasks based on the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code section XI code requirements. Risk based Inservice Testing Programs have been studied and developed extensively in the nuclear energy industry since the 1990s. Risk Based evaluations of IST can bring positive advantages to the licensee such as identifying the vulnerability of the system, reducing unnecessary testing burden, concentrating testing resources on the critical pass oriented valves and saving plant’s personnel dose exposure. This risk evaluation is incorporated with quantitative and qualitative analyses to the Motor Operated Valves under current Inservice Testing Program for PWR nuclear power plant in Taiwan. With the outcome of the risk classifications for the safety related MOVs through numerical or deterministic analyses, a risk based testing frequency relief is suggested to demonstrate the benefits received from the risk based Inservice Testing Program. The goal made of this study, it could be as a reference and cornerstone for the licensee to perform overall scope Risk-Informed Inservice Testing Program (RI-IST) evaluation by referring relevant methodologies established in this study.

  14. Applicability of preoperative nuclear morphometry to evaluating risk for cervical lymph node metastasis in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaaki Karino

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We previously reported the utility of preoperative nuclear morphometry for evaluating risk for cervical lymph node metastases in tongue squamous cell carcinoma. The risk for lymph node metastasis in oral squamous cell carcinoma, however, is known to differ depending on the anatomical site of the primary tumor, such as the tongue, gingiva, mouth floor, and buccal mucosa. In this study, we evaluated the applicability of this morphometric technique to evaluating the risk for cervical lymph node metastasis in oral squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: A digital image system was used to measure the mean nuclear area, mean nuclear perimeter, nuclear circular rate, ratio of nuclear length to width (aspect ratio, and nuclear area coefficient of variation (NACV. Relationships between these parameters and nodal status were evaluated by t-test and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Eighty-eight cases of squamous cell carcinoma (52 of the tongue, 25 of the gingiva, 4 of the buccal mucosa, and 7 of the mouth floor were included: 46 with positive node classification and 42 with negative node classification. Nuclear area and perimeter were significantly larger in node-positive cases than in node-negative cases; however, there were no significant differences in circular rate, aspect ratio, or NACV. We derived two risk models based on the results of multivariate analysis: Model 1, which identified age and mean nuclear area and Model 2, which identified age and mean nuclear perimeter. It should be noted that primary tumor site was not associated the pN-positive status. There were no significant differences in pathological nodal status by aspect ratio, NACV, or primary tumor site. CONCLUSION: Our method of preoperative nuclear morphometry may contribute valuable information to evaluations of the risk for lymph node metastasis in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

  15. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  16. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  17. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  18. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  19. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  20. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  1. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  2. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  3. A framework for evaluating automatic indexing or classification in the context of retrieval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Golub, Korajlka; Soergel, Dagobert; Buchanan, George

    2016-01-01

    subject indexing, hard scientific evidence of their performance in operating information environments is scarce. A major reason for this is that research is usually conducted in laboratory conditions, excluding the complexities of real-life systems and situations. The paper reviews and discusses issues...... with existing evaluation approaches such as problems of aboutness and relevance assessments, implying the need to use more than a single “gold standard” method when evaluating indexing and retrieval and proposes a comprehensive evaluation framework. The framework is informed by a systematic review...

  4. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  5. Constructing criticality by classification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machacek, Erika

    2017-01-01

    " in the bureaucratic practice of classification: Experts construct material criticality in assessments as they allot information on the materials to the parameters of the assessment framework. In so doing, they ascribe a new set of connotations to the materials, namely supply risk, and their importance to clean energy......, legitimizing a criticality discourse.Specifically, the paper introduces a typology delineating the inferences made by the experts from their produced recommendations in the classification of rare earth element criticality. The paper argues that the classification is a specific process of constructing risk....... It proposes that the expert bureaucratic practice of classification legitimizes (i) the valorisation that was made in the drafting of the assessment framework for the classification, and (ii) political operationalization when enacted that might have (non-)distributive implications for the allocation of public...

  6. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Recent Developments in the Classification, Evaluation, Pathophysiology, and Management of Scleroderma Renal Crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghossein, Cybele; Varga, John; Fenves, Andrew Z

    2016-01-01

    Scleroderma renal crisis (SRC) is an uncommon complication of systemic sclerosis. Despite the advent of angiotensin-converting inhibitor therapy, SRC remains a life-threatening complication. Recent studies have contributed to a better understanding of SRC, but much remains unknown regarding its pathophysiology, risk factors, and optimal management. Genetic studies provide evidence that immune dysregulation might be a contributing factor, providing hope that further research in this direction might illuminate pathogenesis and provide novel predictors for this complication.

  8. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  9. Computed tomographic evaluation of the proximal femur: A predictive classification in displaced femoral neck fracture management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narender Kumar Magu

    2014-01-01

    classification based on the femoral head size (type I and type II is proposed. Osteosynthesis should be the preferred method of treatment in type I and osteotomy or prosthetic replacement is the method of choice for type II femoral neck fractures.

  10. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  11. Establishment on the classification scheme for the Evaluation System of the Decommissioning Information and Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S. K.; Ji, Y. H.; Chung, U. S.

    2010-01-01

    According to the requirement, the items for the evaluation system were distinguished with the understanding of the code and it's value, the relation of the technology and it's problems, the relation with the systematical structure of the DECOMMIS-I and its' advantages and disadvantages. The detailed data model (the connection with entities) was structured as of the Information and data on the evaluation items. The ERD(Entity Relationship Diagram) on the characterization was set up. The conceptual modeling (the prototyping) which be on the base of these all result was established

  12. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  13. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  14. Further Classification and Methodological Considerations of Evaluations for Online Discussion in Instructional Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatariu, Alexandru; Winsor, Denise L.; Simpson, Cynthia; Hosman, Eric

    2016-01-01

    With the rapid advancements of technology, online communication in both K-12 and post-secondary instruction has been widely implemented. Instructors as well as researchers have used various frameworks to evaluate different aspects of online discussions' quality. The online discussions take place synchronously or asynchronously in chat rooms,…

  15. Multi-informant assessment of siblings of youth with autism spectrum disorder: Parent-child discrepancies in at-risk classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankin, James A; Tomeny, Theodore S; Barry, Tammy D

    2017-09-01

    The behavioral and emotional functioning of typically-developing (TD) siblings of youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been frequently assessed in the literature; however, these assessments typically include only one informant, rarely considering differences between parent and self-reports of sibling adjustment. This study examined parent-youth reported informant discrepancies in behavioral and emotional functioning, including whether parent and youth reports yielded the same conclusions regarding TD sibling risk status. Among 113 parents and TD siblings of youth with ASD, TD siblings self-reported more overall, conduct, hyperactivity, and peer problems (compared to parent reports). Although few siblings were considered at-risk, those who were identified were not usually identified as at-risk on both informants' reports. Moreover, ASD symptoms, broader autism phenotype symptoms, parent mental health concerns, and social support from parents were all related to differences in at-risk classification between parent- and sibling self-report. This paper highlights the necessity of multi-informant reporting when considering TD sibling psychological functioning. This study helps to address gaps in the literature on assessment of emotional and behavioral functioning of TD siblings of youth with ASD. The results highlight the importance of utilizing both parent- and self-report when identifying TD siblings at-risk for maladjustment. Although few siblings were considered at-risk, those who were identified were not usually identified as such on both informants' reports, and a variety of sibling- and parent-factors were associated with differences in at-risk classification. Thus, inclusion and examination of both parent- and self-report of TD sibling psychological functioning is vital for accurately identifying numbers of TD siblings at-risk of maladjustment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Healthcare Text Classification System and its Performance Evaluation: A Source of Better Intelligence by Characterizing Healthcare Text.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Saurabh Kumar; Singh, Sandeep Kumar; Suri, Jasjit S

    2018-04-13

    A machine learning (ML)-based text classification system has several classifiers. The performance evaluation (PE) of the ML system is typically driven by the training data size and the partition protocols used. Such systems lead to low accuracy because the text classification systems lack the ability to model the input text data in terms of noise characteristics. This research study proposes a concept of misrepresentation ratio (MRR) on input healthcare text data and models the PE criteria for validating the hypothesis. Further, such a novel system provides a platform to amalgamate several attributes of the ML system such as: data size, classifier type, partitioning protocol and percentage MRR. Our comprehensive data analysis consisted of five types of text data sets (TwitterA, WebKB4, Disease, Reuters (R8), and SMS); five kinds of classifiers (support vector machine with linear kernel (SVM-L), MLP-based neural network, AdaBoost, stochastic gradient descent and decision tree); and five types of training protocols (K2, K4, K5, K10 and JK). Using the decreasing order of MRR, our ML system demonstrates the mean classification accuracies as: 70.13 ± 0.15%, 87.34 ± 0.06%, 93.73 ± 0.03%, 94.45 ± 0.03% and 97.83 ± 0.01%, respectively, using all the classifiers and protocols. The corresponding AUC is 0.98 for SMS data using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) based neural network. All the classifiers, the best accuracy of 91.84 ± 0.04% is shown to be of MLP-based neural network and this is 6% better over previously published. Further we observed that as MRR decreases, the system robustness increases and validated by standard deviations. The overall text system accuracy using all data types, classifiers, protocols is 89%, thereby showing the entire ML system to be novel, robust and unique. The system is also tested for stability and reliability.

  17. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  18. New FIGO and Swedish intrapartum cardiotocography classification systems incorporated in the fetal ECG ST analysis (STAN) interpretation algorithm: agreements and discrepancies in cardiotocography classification and evaluation of significant ST events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olofsson, Per; Norén, Håkan; Carlsson, Ann

    2018-02-01

    The updated intrapartum cardiotocography (CTG) classification system by FIGO in 2015 (FIGO2015) and the FIGO2015-approached classification by the Swedish Society of Obstetricians and Gynecologist in 2017 (SSOG2017) are not harmonized with the fetal ECG ST analysis (STAN) algorithm from 2007 (STAN2007). The study aimed to reveal homogeneity and agreement between the systems in classifying CTG and ST events, and relate them to maternal and perinatal outcomes. Among CTG traces with ST events, 100 traces originally classified as normal, 100 as suspicious and 100 as pathological were randomly selected from a STAN database and classified by two experts in consensus. Homogeneity and agreement statistics between the CTG classifications were performed. Maternal and perinatal outcomes were evaluated in cases with clinically hidden ST data (n = 151). A two-tailed p ST events, heterogeneities were significant and agreements moderate to almost perfect (STAN2007 vs. FIGO2015 0.86, 0.72; STAN2007 vs. SSOG2017 0.92, 0.84; FIGO2015 vs. SSOG2017 0.94, 0.87). Significant ST events occurred more often combined with STAN2007 than with FIGO2015 classification, but not with SSOG2017; correct identification of adverse outcomes was not significantly different between the systems. There are discrepancies in the classification of CTG patterns and significant ST events between the old and new systems. The clinical relevance of the findings remains to be shown. © 2017 The Authors. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology (NFOG).

  19. Classification of radiation-hazardous objects by the ecological risk rate, based on the concept of the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetrov, V.A.

    2003-01-01

    The principal categories of the radiation-hazardous objects (RHO) (nuclear fuel cycle plants (NFC including NPP); ships with nuclear engine units and appropriate service facilities; units related with nuclear weapons (design, manufacture, storage, etc.); contaminated territories in the result nuclear accidents and nuclear facilities tests; civil enterprises using the radioactive sources) with real accident risk from radioactive substances (RS) release into environment are considered. For assessment of the ecological risk rate from RHO the International Nuclear Event Scale implemented by IAEA for NPP use is suggested. By opinion of the specialists the INES criteria could be used for radiation events assessment to other RHO that gives possibility for RHO arrangement by the potential hazard rate for environment in the case of accident. For RHO qualitative classification the main parameters assessment influencing on radioactive release risk (amount (total activity) of radioactive substances; possibility of chain reaction development; strength of technological parameters, etc.) was suggested. On the base of the INES all above-listed RHO kinds in the case of accident could be conditionally separated into three categories: 1. most radiation dangerous objects, on which could be severe and serious radiation accidents (corresponding to 4-7 INES levels); 2. RHO on which there is risk for accidents accompanying with RS release (accidents up to 4 INES level). 3. RHO without practical possibility for event (incidents - not higher 3 INES level). Introduction of suggested classification gives possibility for RHO safety control requirements rationalizing to radiation monitoring purposes for both RHO and the local systems

  20. Classification of Flotation Frothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Drzymala

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a scheme of flotation frothers classification is presented. The scheme first indicates the physical system in which a frother is present and four of them i.e., pure state, aqueous solution, aqueous solution/gas system and aqueous solution/gas/solid system are distinguished. As a result, there are numerous classifications of flotation frothers. The classifications can be organized into a scheme described in detail in this paper. The frother can be present in one of four physical systems, that is pure state, aqueous solution, aqueous solution/gas and aqueous solution/gas/solid system. It results from the paper that a meaningful classification of frothers relies on choosing the physical system and next feature, trend, parameter or parameters according to which the classification is performed. The proposed classification can play a useful role in characterizing and evaluation of flotation frothers.

  1. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    This document provides guidance on the process of risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) at the Hanford Site. Remediation activities at the Hanford Site are being conducted pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Restoration, Compensation, and Liability Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This document identifies points in the remedial alternative selection process where risk assessment input is either required or desirable. For each of these points of application, the document identifies issues to consider and address, and suggests possible approaches, techniques, and appropriate levels of detail. The level of detail of a RERA is driven by the need to use risk as a criterion for selecting a remedial alternative. Such a document is needed to ensure that RERA is conducted in a consistent manner, and to prevent restating or creating guidance within each RERA

  2. Impact of chromosome alterations, genetic mutations and clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) on the classification and risk stratification of MDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Bani Bandana; Banerjee, Debasis; Agarwal, Mohan B

    2018-03-01

    The advent of technological development has undoubtedly advanced biological and molecular inputs for better understanding the heterogeneous hematopoietic pre-malignant disorder of the stem cells known as myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Chromosomal rearrangements, including del(3q/5q/7q/11q/12p/20q), loss of 5/7/Y, trisomy 8/19, i(17q), etc. frequently detected in MDS with variable frequencies and combinations, are the integral components of the 5-tier risk-stratification and WHO-2016 classification. Observations on mutations in genes involved in RNA-splicing, DNA methylation, chromatin modification, transcription factor, signal transduction/kinases, RAS pathway, cohesin complex, DNA repair and other pathways have given insights in independent effects and biological interaction of co-occurrence on disease-phenotype and treatment outcome. However, recent concepts of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) and idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS) have urged a re-definition of mutational events in non-clonal cytopenia and non-MDS healthy elderly but with a higher risk of overt leukemia. Considering gene mutations, chromosomal alterations, CHIP, ICUS and their significance in classification and risk-scoring certainly presents a comprehensive picture of disease-phenotype towards better understanding of MDS-pathogenesis, its evolution to AML and its response to therapeutic agents. The present review summarizes chromosomal and gene mutations, co-existence of mutational complexity, and WHO-2016 classification and risk-stratifications of MDS to facilitate a better understanding of its pathogenesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  4. An empirical evaluation of classification algorithms for fault prediction in open source projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvinder Kaur

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Creating software with high quality has become difficult these days with the fact that size and complexity of the developed software is high. Predicting the quality of software in early phases helps to reduce testing resources. Various statistical and machine learning techniques are used for prediction of the quality of the software. In this paper, six machine learning models have been used for software quality prediction on five open source software. Varieties of metrics have been evaluated for the software including C & K, Henderson & Sellers, McCabe etc. Results show that Random Forest and Bagging produce good results while Naïve Bayes is least preferable for prediction.

  5. THE IMPORTANCE OF EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Economies with dominant private ownership and developed market institutions build their prosperity on a firm`s goal function in a form of maximization owner`s wealth. Financial situation of business organization is most important indicate that shows level of financial health. The creation of value for the owners imply two matters simultaneously competitive advantage and the evaluation of economic effects. Among economic activities, establishes the different types of addiction. In this work authors draw attention to two categories: the functional and stochastic. Case studies will be cash flows of investment and the contribution of the stochastic component of the risk of enterprise value. Methodological dominated analytical and descriptive methods. Management in the process of evaluation of investment seen what happens behind the projections of cash flows and estimates of available chances for possible modifications. The purpose of the discussion in this section refers to the warning that the application of the rules of net present values does not mean the completion of the management process at the moment of the decision on the selection of investments. In this study, we analyze the influence of stochastic risk in the creation of enterprise value, especially if the risk is managed improperly. In this connection, the starting hypothesis is that adequately compensate for risk has a positive effect on new investments and reduce the antagonism of shareholders and other creditors of the company.

  6. The radon in Corsica: evaluation of exposure and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-02-01

    The average level found in Corsica is superior to that one found in France. On the basis of the results of it campaign I.R.S.N.-D.G.S., the French average is of 90 Bq.m 3 against 197 Bq.m 3 for Corsica. The risk of dying from a lung cancer attributable to the radon was estimated at 13 % in France. The evaluation of risk led on Corsica shows a risk attributable to the radon included between 21.5 and 28 %.This evaluation of risk is only a stage. It is important to arrest better the exposure to the radon of the Corsican population. For a good estimation of the levels of radon and thus the impact of this one, additional measures are necessary. The results of the data analysis of exposure allow to guide the choice of the new measures: a campaign on the season effect in Corsica and a completion of the measures in housing are two main axes.Seen the importance of the interaction between the tobacco and the radon, a good estimation of the tobacco customs in Corsica and its evolution in the time seems essential to estimate indeed the impact of the radon in this region. (N.C.)

  7. A Systematic Evaluation of Feature Selection and Classification Algorithms Using Simulated and Real miRNA Sequencing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sequencing is widely used to discover associations between microRNAs (miRNAs and diseases. However, the negative binomial distribution (NB and high dimensionality of data obtained using sequencing can lead to low-power results and low reproducibility. Several statistical learning algorithms have been proposed to address sequencing data, and although evaluation of these methods is essential, such studies are relatively rare. The performance of seven feature selection (FS algorithms, including baySeq, DESeq, edgeR, the rank sum test, lasso, particle swarm optimistic decision tree, and random forest (RF, was compared by simulation under different conditions based on the difference of the mean, the dispersion parameter of the NB, and the signal to noise ratio. Real data were used to evaluate the performance of RF, logistic regression, and support vector machine. Based on the simulation and real data, we discuss the behaviour of the FS and classification algorithms. The Apriori algorithm identified frequent item sets (mir-133a, mir-133b, mir-183, mir-937, and mir-96 from among the deregulated miRNAs of six datasets from The Cancer Genomics Atlas. Taking these findings altogether and considering computational memory requirements, we propose a strategy that combines edgeR and DESeq for large sample sizes.

  8. Comprehensive Evaluation of Altered Systemic Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    09/08/15-08/31/19 0.96 cal. mo. NIH/NCI $168,300 A prospective investigation of the oral microbiome and pancreatic cancer 1.To perform a...and BWHS. 2.To evaluate racial differences in the oral microbiome using 165 AA and 165 EA controls (from the SCCS only), and to identify any racial...risk factors for pancreatic cancer (cigarette smoking, obesity, red meat and processed meat consumption, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes) and oral

  9. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Vieira, Daniela Calazans; Krause, Gilson Galvao

    1999-01-01

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  10. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

  11. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

  12. Evaluation of risk of atherosclerosis in Indian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Deepa; Chiplonkar, Shashi; Khadilkar, Anuradha; Kinare, Arun; Khadilkar, Vaman; Divate, Uma

    2013-05-01

    To investigate interrelationship of arterial measurements with metabolic syndrome (MS) components and zinc status in apparently healthy Indian adults. Anthropometry and biochemical data were recorded in 110 men and 139 women (25-50 yr). Carotid Intima media thickness (CIMT), stiffness (beta), pulse wave velocity (PWV), elasticity modulus (Ep), and arterial compliance (AC) of the right carotid artery were evaluated ultrasonically. According to definition of MS, subjects were categorized as MS-1, MS-2, MS-3. Further, normal and MS subjects were divided as zinc sufficient and deficient. In all, 12.1% subjects had 3 risk factors for MS. Mean CIMT, beta, Ep and PWV were significantly higher by 6%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 12.4% in subjects with MS than normal (p < 0.05). AC showed significant decline in MS subjects by only 3% than normal (p < 0.05). Serum zinc was inversely correlated with beta, Ep and PWV in both the genders in subjects with MS (p < 0.05). A synergistic effect of serum zinc deficiency with MS further envisages the elevated risk of arterial stiffness. Risk of atherosclerosis is marked by increase in stiffness parameters even in presence of a single MS risk and zinc deficiency may further aggravate the risk indicating need for early diagnosis.

  13. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  14. Identification of Sexually Abused Female Adolescents at Risk for Suicidal Ideations: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabant, Marie-Eve; Hebert, Martine; Chagnon, Francois

    2013-01-01

    This study explored the clinical profiles of 77 female teenager survivors of sexual abuse and examined the association of abuse-related and personal variables with suicidal ideations. Analyses revealed that 64% of participants experienced suicidal ideations. Findings from classification and regression tree analysis indicated that depression,…

  15. A comparison of CA125, HE4, risk ovarian malignancy algorithm (ROMA, and risk malignancy index (RMI for the classification of ovarian masses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Anton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Differentiation between benign and malignant ovarian neoplasms is essential for creating a system for patient referrals. Therefore, the contributions of the tumor markers CA125 and human epididymis protein 4 (HE4 as well as the risk ovarian malignancy algorithm (ROMA and risk malignancy index (RMI values were considered individually and in combination to evaluate their utility for establishing this type of patient referral system. METHODS: Patients who had been diagnosed with ovarian masses through imaging analyses (n = 128 were assessed for their expression of the tumor markers CA125 and HE4. The ROMA and RMI values were also determined. The sensitivity and specificity of each parameter were calculated using receiver operating characteristic curves according to the area under the curve (AUC for each method. RESULTS: The sensitivities associated with the ability of CA125, HE4, ROMA, or RMI to distinguish between malignant versus benign ovarian masses were 70.4%, 79.6%, 74.1%, and 63%, respectively. Among carcinomas, the sensitivities of CA125, HE4, ROMA (pre-and post-menopausal, and RMI were 93.5%, 87.1%, 80%, 95.2%, and 87.1%, respectively. The most accurate numerical values were obtained with RMI, although the four parameters were shown to be statistically equivalent. CONCLUSION: There were no differences in accuracy between CA125, HE4, ROMA, and RMI for differentiating between types of ovarian masses. RMI had the lowest sensitivity but was the most numerically accurate method. HE4 demonstrated the best overall sensitivity for the evaluation of malignant ovarian tumors and the differential diagnosis of endometriosis. All of the parameters demonstrated increased sensitivity when tumors with low malignancy potential were considered low-risk, which may be used as an acceptable assessment method for referring patients to reference centers.

  16. A Non Linear Scoring Approach for Evaluating Balance: Classification of Elderly as Fallers and Non-Fallers

    OpenAIRE

    Audiffren, Julien; Bargiotas, Ioannis; Vayatis, Nicolas; Vidal, Pierre-Paul; Ricard, Damien

    2016-01-01

    Almost one third of population 65 years-old and older faces at least one fall per year. An accurate evaluation of the risk of fall through simple and easy-to-use measurements is an important issue in current clinic. A common way to evaluate balance in posturography is through the recording of the centre-of-pressure (CoP) displacement (statokinesigram) with force platforms. A variety of indices have been proposed to differentiate fallers from non fallers. However, no agreement has been reached...

  17. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  18. Evaluation and Selection of International Supplier, Underscoring Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyed Mohammad Ali Khatami Firouzabadi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the decision making process for import complete manufactured pieces versus import of partial pieces to assemble in Iran, taking into account the risk factors for a manufacturing company. Since this sort of decision making confront with several risks, it is necessary to establish a process for finding the risks associated with this kind of problems in order to decrease the effects of these risks in the process. Since the problem is classified as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM problem, Uncertain Analytical Hierarchy Process (UAHP was used to find the most attractive alternative. Because the alternatives were identified from the first point, a bottom-up procedure was used to organize the hierarchy. In initial stage, the attributes which distinct from the alternatives were obtained by literature review and experts' interviews. Then the attributes were grouped to upper level to establish the criteria. Three criteria were found from this stage. The criteria were product, partners, and environment which they encompassed 12 attributes. Forming the hierarchy and doing the uncertain pairwised comparisons, which considers a range of numbers instead of one single number for declaring the preference between two factors, a Linear Programming (LP model with two types of objective functions were formed for each individual alternative. Each single LP model can express the maximum and minimum value of each individual alternative. The research's results indicate the most appropriate alternative is to import the final product from India. The last preferred one was to import the parts of the final product from India. This study can be a suitable framework in supply chain management and purchasing decisions and risk evaluations because the major parts of manufacturing activities is always to decide about the selection of most preferred strategies for companies.

  19. Hyperspectral Imaging and K-Means Classification for Histologic Evaluation of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser Khouj

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral imaging (HSI is a non-invasive optical imaging modality that shows the potential to aid pathologists in breast cancer diagnoses cases. In this study, breast cancer tissues from different patients were imaged by a hyperspectral system to detect spectral differences between normal and breast cancer tissues. Tissue samples mounted on slides were identified from 10 different patients. Samples from each patient included both normal and ductal carcinoma tissue, both stained with hematoxylin and eosin stain and unstained. Slides were imaged using a snapshot HSI system, and the spectral reflectance differences were evaluated. Analysis of the spectral reflectance values indicated that wavelengths near 550 nm showed the best differentiation between tissue types. This information was used to train image processing algorithms using supervised and unsupervised data. The K-means method was applied to the hyperspectral data cubes, and successfully detected spectral tissue differences with sensitivity of 85.45%, and specificity of 94.64% with true negative rate of 95.8%, and false positive rate of 4.2%. These results were verified by ground-truth marking of the tissue samples by a pathologist. In the hyperspectral image analysis, the image processing algorithm, K-means, shows the greatest potential for building a semi-automated system that could identify and sort between normal and ductal carcinoma in situ tissues.

  20. Hyperspectral Imaging and K-Means Classification for Histologic Evaluation of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khouj, Yasser; Dawson, Jeremy; Coad, James; Vona-Davis, Linda

    2018-01-01

    Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) is a non-invasive optical imaging modality that shows the potential to aid pathologists in breast cancer diagnoses cases. In this study, breast cancer tissues from different patients were imaged by a hyperspectral system to detect spectral differences between normal and breast cancer tissues. Tissue samples mounted on slides were identified from 10 different patients. Samples from each patient included both normal and ductal carcinoma tissue, both stained with hematoxylin and eosin stain and unstained. Slides were imaged using a snapshot HSI system, and the spectral reflectance differences were evaluated. Analysis of the spectral reflectance values indicated that wavelengths near 550 nm showed the best differentiation between tissue types. This information was used to train image processing algorithms using supervised and unsupervised data. The K-means method was applied to the hyperspectral data cubes, and successfully detected spectral tissue differences with sensitivity of 85.45%, and specificity of 94.64% with true negative rate of 95.8%, and false positive rate of 4.2%. These results were verified by ground-truth marking of the tissue samples by a pathologist. In the hyperspectral image analysis, the image processing algorithm, K-means, shows the greatest potential for building a semi-automated system that could identify and sort between normal and ductal carcinoma in situ tissues.

  1. Neural network classification technique and machine vision for bread crumb grain evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zayas, Inna Y.; Chung, O. K.; Caley, M.

    1995-10-01

    Bread crumb grain was studied to develop a model for pattern recognition of bread baked at Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory (HWWQL), Grain Marketing and Production Research Center (GMPRC). Images of bread slices were acquired with a scanner in a 512 multiplied by 512 format. Subimages in the central part of the slices were evaluated by several features such as mean, determinant, eigen values, shape of a slice and other crumb features. Derived features were used to describe slices and loaves. Neural network programs of MATLAB package were used for data analysis. Learning vector quantization method and multivariate discriminant analysis were applied to bread slices from what of different sources. A training and test sets of different bread crumb texture classes were obtained. The ranking of subimages was well correlated with visual judgement. The performance of different models on slice recognition rate was studied to choose the best model. The recognition of classes created according to human judgement with image features was low. Recognition of arbitrarily created classes, according to porosity patterns, with several feature patterns was approximately 90%. Correlation coefficient was approximately 0.7 between slice shape features and loaf volume.

  2. [Evaluation and classification of drug therapy for breast cancer with bone-only metastasis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, X Y; Song, S T

    2017-03-23

    Skeleton is one of the most common metastatic organs for breast cancer, which has a better prognosis than visceral metastases. Bone-only metastasis was defined"non-measurable" in the RECIST (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors) criteria, and was excluded by clinical trials. However, patients with bone-only metastasis are also in need of effective treatment to prolong survival. Endocrine therapy is the most important treatment for bone metastatic patients. Tumor response of bone metastases can be determined objectively by bone-window CT. Effective treatment should be continued if the symptoms are relieved or osteogenesis is observed. Osteoblastic change in bone-window CT is a sign of improvement after treatment. Endocrine therapy is proper for ER-positive patients. The patients with initial osteoblastic metastasis should not be treated with salvage chemotherapy or anti-HER2 treatment, only if osteolytic metastasis or visceral metastasis is observed. Bishosphonates are just auxiliary drugs in bone metastasis, which should not be abused.

  3. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  4. Measurement, Classification and Evaluation of Sleep Disturbance in Psoriasis: A Systematic Review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alasdair L Henry

    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a long-term immune-mediated inflammatory disorder mainly, but not only, affecting skin, and is associated with significant medical and psychological morbidity. Evidence suggests that sleep is disrupted in psoriasis, however high quality empirical evidence is lacking. Given the importance of sleep for health, characterisation of sleep disruption in psoriasis is an important goal. We therefore conducted a systematic review of the sleep-psoriasis literature.Searches were conducted in Pubmed, SCOPUS and Web of Science from inception to May 2016. Studies were compared against inclusion/exclusion criteria and underwent a quality evaluation. Given the heterogeneity of studies, we conducted a narrative synthesis of the findings.Searches revealed 32 studies which met our predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Whilst 93.7% of studies reported sleep disruption in this population, ranging from 0.05% to 85.4%, many had important methodological shortcomings. Over half of all quantitative studies (54.8%; 17/31 relied on non-validated measures, contributing to heterogeneity in study findings. In those that employed valid measures, assessing sleep was often not the primary objective. We frequently found the absence of adequate sample size calculations and poor statistical reporting.This review showed that in psoriasis, reported sleep rates of sleep disturbance varied substantially. Most studies lacked a hypothesis driven research question and/or failed to use validated measures of sleep. We were unable to draw firm conclusions about the precise prevalence and nature of sleep disturbance within the psoriasis population. We offer suggestions to help advance understanding of sleep disturbance in psoriasis.

  5. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  6. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  7. Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee

    2018-05-09

    Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.

  8. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  9. Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay

    2017-12-20

    Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of

  10. Risk assessments using the Strain Index and the TLV for HAL, Part I: Task and multi-task job exposure classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapellusch, Jay M; Bao, Stephen S; Silverstein, Barbara A; Merryweather, Andrew S; Thiese, Mathew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Garg, Arun

    2017-12-01

    The Strain Index (SI) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) Threshold Limit Value for Hand Activity Level (TLV for HAL) use different constituent variables to quantify task physical exposures. Similarly, time-weighted-average (TWA), Peak, and Typical exposure techniques to quantify physical exposure from multi-task jobs make different assumptions about each task's contribution to the whole job exposure. Thus, task and job physical exposure classifications differ depending upon which model and technique are used for quantification. This study examines exposure classification agreement, disagreement, correlation, and magnitude of classification differences between these models and techniques. Data from 710 multi-task job workers performing 3,647 tasks were analyzed using the SI and TLV for HAL models, as well as with the TWA, Typical and Peak job exposure techniques. Physical exposures were classified as low, medium, and high using each model's recommended, or a priori limits. Exposure classification agreement and disagreement between models (SI, TLV for HAL) and between job exposure techniques (TWA, Typical, Peak) were described and analyzed. Regardless of technique, the SI classified more tasks as high exposure than the TLV for HAL, and the TLV for HAL classified more tasks as low exposure. The models agreed on 48.5% of task classifications (kappa = 0.28) with 15.5% of disagreement between low and high exposure categories. Between-technique (i.e., TWA, Typical, Peak) agreement ranged from 61-93% (kappa: 0.16-0.92) depending on whether the SI or TLV for HAL was used. There was disagreement between the SI and TLV for HAL and between the TWA, Typical and Peak techniques. Disagreement creates uncertainty for job design, job analysis, risk assessments, and developing interventions. Task exposure classifications from the SI and TLV for HAL might complement each other. However, TWA, Typical, and Peak job exposure techniques all have

  11. Methodology implementation in order to evaluate the biological risks in the Centre for Research and Rehabilitation of Hereditary Ataxias of Cuba: a biosecurity surveillance method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dailín Cobos Valdes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Center for Research and Rehabilitation of Hereditary Ataxias faces biological risks. Nevertheless a Biosafety system was not yet implemented. Objective: To apply the methodology in order to evaluate these risks Materials and Methods: Interview with the researchers of the center and the use of the methodology for evaluating biological risks designed for Cobos, 2009. Results: Fifty-three biological risks were identified and evaluated, 32 as moderated, 18 as tolerable and 3 as trivial. Such classification are crucial to establish its management priorities and represent a way of surveillance in Biosafety field. Conclusion: The results of this research represent an essential factor for the Biosafety documentation development adapted to the Center and according to the legal basis in terms of biological safety in Cuba.

  12. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  13. Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

    2013-06-01

    The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  14. Benefit-risk evaluation of mammographic mass screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Nobuo; Ogura, Toshihiro

    1990-01-01

    This study evaluated the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening by using survival rates from 3000 breast cancer patients at the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research Institute Hospital. Because the number of participants in mammographic mass screening was small, asymptomatic patients with pathologically proven early breast cancer were categorized as the screenee group. Symptomatic patients were categorized as the patient group. Survival rates were compared in both the screenee and the patient groups. Based on the difference in areas of survival curves between screenees and patients, the ratio of person-year gain (PYG) to person-year lost (PYL) was obtained. The ratio of PYG to PYL was multiplied by the detection rate resulting from a particular screening program to obtain the benefit/risk ratio. The detection rate of nonpalpable breast cancer was 15 times higher in the screenee group than the patient group. Breast cancer was detected in 7 (0.85%) of 824 patients in the screenee group. Even when mammographic mass screening was started at the age of 30, the benefit of mammography was far superior to the risk. The number of participants in mass screening stratified by age may be required for the conclusion of the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening. (N.K.)

  15. A Web-Based, Hospital-Wide Health Care-Associated Bloodstream Infection Surveillance and Classification System: Development and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Yi-Ju; Wu, Jung-Hsuan; Lin, Hui-Chi; Chen, Ming-Yuan; Ping, Xiao-Ou; Sun, Chun-Chuan; Shang, Rung-Ji; Sheng, Wang-Huei; Chen, Yee-Chun; Lai, Feipei; Chang, Shan-Chwen

    2015-09-21

    Surveillance of health care-associated infections is an essential component of infection prevention programs, but conventional systems are labor intensive and performance dependent. To develop an automatic surveillance and classification system for health care-associated bloodstream infection (HABSI), and to evaluate its performance by comparing it with a conventional infection control personnel (ICP)-based surveillance system. We developed a Web-based system that was integrated into the medical information system of a 2200-bed teaching hospital in Taiwan. The system automatically detects and classifies HABSIs. In this study, the number of computer-detected HABSIs correlated closely with the number of HABSIs detected by ICP by department (n=20; r=.999 Psystem performed excellently with regard to sensitivity (98.16%), specificity (99.96%), positive predictive value (95.81%), and negative predictive value (99.98%). The system enabled decreasing the delay in confirmation of HABSI cases, on average, by 29 days. This system provides reliable and objective HABSI data for quality indicators, improving the delay caused by a conventional surveillance system.

  16. Using Procedure Based on Item Response Theory to Evaluate Classification Consistency Indices in the Practice of Large-Scale Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In spite of the growing interest in the methods of evaluating the classification consistency (CC indices, only few researches are available in the field of applying these methods in the practice of large-scale educational assessment. In addition, only few studies considered the influence of practical factors, for example, the examinee ability distribution, the cut score location and the score scale, on the performance of CC indices. Using the newly developed Lee's procedure based on the item response theory (IRT, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of CC indices when practical factors are taken into consideration. A simulation study and an empirical study were conducted under comprehensive conditions. Results suggested that with negatively skewed distribution, the CC indices were larger than with other distributions. Interactions occurred among ability distribution, cut score location, and score scale. Consequently, Lee's IRT procedure is reliable to be used in the field of large-scale educational assessment, and when reporting the indices, it should be treated with caution as testing conditions may vary a lot.

  17. Laser therapy in pressure ulcers: evaluation by the Pressure Ulcer Scale for Healing and Nursing Outcomes Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Palagi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available AbstractOBJECTIVETo describe the pressure ulcer healing process in critically ill patients treated with conventional dressing therapy plus low-intensity laser therapy evaluated by the Pressure Ulcer Scale for Healing (PUSH and the result of Wound Healing: Secondary Intention, according to the Nursing Outcomes Classification (NOC.METHODCase report study according to nursing process conducted with an Intensive Care Unit patient. Data were collected with an instrument containing the PUSH and the result of the NOC. In the analysis we used descriptive statistics, considering the scores obtained on the instrument.RESULTSA reduction in the size of lesions of 7cm to 1.5cm of length and 6cm to 1.1cm width, in addition to the increase of epithelial tissue and granulation, decreased secretion and odor.CONCLUSIONThere was improvement in the healing process of the lesion treated with adjuvant therapy and the use of NOC allowed a more detailed and accurate assessment than the PUSH.

  18. Tc-99m GSA scintigraphy for evaluation of liver function. Correlations with histological grading and staging (new Inuyama classification)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, Ikuyo; Ohashi, Kenjirou; Fukui, Atsushi; Nikai, Akira; Maeyama, Shiro

    2001-01-01

    To evaluate the parameters of Tc-99m galactosyl human serum albumin (Tc-99m GSA) as indicators of residual liver function by comparing with laboratory data and histological grading and staging. The study population consists of 82 patients with liver diseases including chronic hepatitis (60), compensated liver cirrhosis (12) and decompensated liver cirrhosis (10). Five parameters of Tc-99m GSA (HH 15 , LHL 15 , LHL/HH, ncEI 5 and EI 5 ) were measured and correlated with laboratory data and histological grading, which indicates necro-inflammatory activity, and staging, which indicates fibrosis (New Inuyama Classification). All 5 parameters showed significant correlation with the laboratory data for liver function including serum albumin, platelet count, and prothrombin time. LHL 15 showed a particularly strong correlation with serum albumin, total bilirubin, TTT, ZTT, and prothrombin time. Regarding histological correlation, only LHL 15 showed a significant correlation with both histological grading and staging. HH 15 and LHL/HH revealed significant correlations with staging only. Extraction indexes were not correlated significantly with histological grading and staging. Among the five parameters we tested, LHL 15 is the most potent indicator of liver function. HH 15 , LHL 15 and LHL/HH appear-useful to non-invasive assess histological fibrosis of the liver non-invasively. (author)

  19. Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

    2017-12-01

    Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.

  20. [Establishment of risk evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer and its predictive value].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjie; Zhou, Rongjian; Zhang, Qi; Shu, Ping; Li, Haojie; Wang, Xuefei; Shen, Zhenbin; Liu, Fenglin; Chen, Weidong; Qin, Jing; Sun, Yihong

    2017-01-25

    To establish an evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer, and to assess its clinical significance. Clinical and pathologic data of the consecutive cases of gastric cancer admitted between April 2015 and December 2015 in Department of General Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 710 patients were enrolled in the study after 18 patients with other distant metastasis were excluded. The correlations between peritoneal metastasis and different factors were studied through univariate (Pearson's test or Fisher's exact test) and multivariate analyses (Binary Logistic regression). Independent predictable factors for peritoneal metastasis were combined to establish a risk evaluation model (nomogram). The nomogram was created with R software using the 'rms' package. In the nomogram, each factor had different scores, and every patient could have a total score by adding all the scores of each factor. A higher total score represented higher risk of peritoneal metastasis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the established nomogram. Delong. Delong. Clarke-Pearson test was used to compare the difference of the area under the curve (AUC). The cut-off value was determined by the AUC, when the ROC curve had the biggest AUC, the model had the best sensitivity and specificity. Among 710 patients, 47 patients had peritoneal metastasis (6.6%), including 30 male (30/506, 5.9%) and 17 female (17/204, 8.3%); 31 were ≥ 60 years old (31/429, 7.2%); 38 had tumor ≥ 3 cm(38/461, 8.2%). Lauren classification indicated that 2 patients were intestinal type(2/245, 0.8%), 8 patients were mixed type(8/208, 3.8%), 11 patients were diffuse type(11/142, 7.7%), and others had no associated data. CA19-9 of 13 patients was ≥ 37 kU/L(13/61, 21.3%); CA125 of 11 patients was ≥ 35 kU/L(11/36, 30.6%); CA72-4 of 11 patients was ≥ 10 kU/L(11/39, 28

  1. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  2. Patient Doses and Risk Evaluation in Bone Mineral Densitometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelucci, M.; Borio, R.; Chiocchini, S.; Degli Esposti, P.; Dipilato, A.C.; Policani, G.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work was to evaluate the equipment dose to the organs and tissues and the effective dose of patients undergoing the most frequent examinations carried out in bone mineral densitometry (BMD): lumbar spine and femur. Experimental measurements of absorbed doses on a Rando phantom, allow comparison of the performances of three different photon emitter facilities. The comparison of the entrance and exit doses measured on a Rando phantom and on 50 female non-obese patients show that entrance doses on Rando can be used as 'diagnostic reference levels' for patients. A quantitative estimate of the stochastic risk due to BMD procedures was made: the results obtained show that the stochastic risk is very low and that the BMD is, at present, the most confirmed procedure for osteoporosis diagnosis and management. (author)

  3. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  4. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  5. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  6. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc; Bomfim, Joao A S

    2011-01-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  7. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scislewski, Alexandro [Brazilian Nuclear Energy Comission (CNEN), Avenida Santana, 680, Centro, Caetite-Bahia, 46400-000 (Brazil); Zuddas, Pierpaolo [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris-Sorbonne, ISTEP place Jussieu, Tour 56-55, case 116, F75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2013-07-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  8. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scislewski, Alexandro; Zuddas, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  9. Evaluation of radiation risk and work practices during cerebral interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingstone, Roshan S; Raghuram, L; Korah, Ipeson P; Raj, D Victor [Department of Radiodiagnosis, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004 (India)

    2003-09-01

    This study was intended to evaluate radiation risk to patients during cerebral interventions and the contribution to this risk from work practices. Thirty nine patients undergoing cerebral interventions in a digital subtraction angiography suite were included in this study. Patients who underwent cerebral interventions were categorised into two groups according to the number of cerebral interventions performed on them, and their effective doses were calculated. The effective dose for patients undergoing a single cerebral intervention (group A) varied from 1.55 to 15.9 mSv and for multiple cerebral interventions (group B) varied from 16.52 to 43.52 mSv. Two patients who underwent multiple cerebral interventions (group B) had alopecia of the irradiated scalp.

  10. Risk evaluation in Columbian electricity market using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina, S.; Moreno, J.

    2007-01-01

    This article proposes a model based on Fuzzy Logic to evaluate the market risk that a trading agent faces in the electric power negotiation in Colombia, as part of a general model of negotiation. The proposed model considers single external factors as regulatory changes, social and political issues, and the condition of the national transmission net. Variables of the market associated to these risk factors were selected and some graphic and statistical analyses were made in order to check their relationship with the electricity prices and to determine why the experts consider these factors in their analyses. According to the obtained results a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System which contains the expert knowledge was developed and it is presented in a fuzzy cognitive map. (author)

  11. orphological Evaluation and Classification of Melon Genotypes in Khorasan Provinces (Razavi, North and South

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aireza sobhany

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Melon is a tropical species that originates from Iran or Africa and Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India and China are the most important centers of genetic diversity of cultivated varieties (1. The original area for cantaloupe and melon is Iran. Dry and warm climate is the best condition for Melon. This plant needs heat and light for good grows. Cloudy and rainy weather at the time of fruit ripening may affect melon taste and quality(2. According to the FAO statistics in 2012, the total area devoted to melon was 1,339,006 hectares with an average yield of 23.8 tons per hectare and 31,925,787 tons production. The highest production belonged to China (55% of world production. Iran produces about 5.4 percent of world production which is about 1450000 tons from 80,000 hectares (2. Recently, a great number of studies have studied the correlation between melon yield and its components. The first branch (5, the number of primary branches, the number of fruits per plant and fruit weight per plant (6, length and width of fruit and fruit shape index were the most important melons traits which have been evaluated by other studies (4. Fruit yield has significant positive correlation with the length of the stem, primary branches, the date of the first appearance of female flowers and fruit weight. Studies revealed that there is a negative correlation between the number of fruits per plant and the average fruit weight. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in 2008 with 17 landrace seeds collected from different locations of Khorasan provinces included Kashmar, sarakhs, Boshruye, Sabzevar, Dargaz and Bajestan. Experiment was designed based on randomized complete block design with three replications at agricultural Research Station of Khorasan Razavi. Results and Discussion: The cultivars did not show any different in the time of emergence as all of them emerged 4 to 7 days after the first irrigation. The comparison

  12. An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M.

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: 210 Po; 226 Ra and 241 Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like 137 Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

  13. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

  14. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

  15. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

    2017-09-01

    To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

  16. Development of the Connecticut Airway Risk Evaluation (CARE) system to improve handoff communication in pediatric patients with tracheotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrason Hughes, Amy; Murray, Nicole; Valdez, Tulio A; Kelly, Raeanne; Kavanagh, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    National attention has focused on the importance of handoffs in medicine. Our practice during airway patient handoffs is to communicate a patient-specific emergency plan for airway reestablishment; patients who are not intubatable by standard means are at higher risk for failure. There is currently no standard classification system describing airway risk in tracheotomized patients. To introduce and assess the interrater reliability of a simple airway risk classification system, the Connecticut Airway Risk Evaluation (CARE) system. We created a novel classification system, the CARE system, based on ease of intubation and the need for ventilation: group 1, easily intubatable; group 2, intubatable with special equipment and/or maneuvers; group 3, not intubatable. A "v" was appended to any group number to indicate the need for mechanical ventilation. We performed a retrospective medical chart review of patients aged 0 to 18 years who were undergoing tracheotomy at our tertiary care pediatric hospital between January 2000 and April 2011. INTERVENTIONS Each patient's medical history, including airway disease and means of intubation, was reviewed by 4 raters. Patient airways were separately rated as CARE groups 1, 2, or 3, each group with or without a v appended, as appropriate, based on the available information. After the patients were assigned to an airway group by each of the 4 raters, the interrater reliability was calculated to determine the ease of use of the rating system. We identified complete data for 155 of 169 patients (92%), resulting in a total of 620 ratings. Based on the patient's ease of intubation, raters categorized tracheotomized patients into group 1 (70%, 432 of 620); group 2 (25%, 157 of 620); or group 3 (5%, 29 of 620), each with a v appended if appropriate. The interrater reliability was κ = 0.95. We propose an airway risk classification system for tracheotomized patients, CARE, that has high interrater reliability and is easy to use and

  17. American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/European Society of Cardiology/World Heart Federation universal definition of myocardial infarction classification system and the risk of cardiovascular death: observations from the TRITON-TIMI 38 trial (Trial to Assess Improvement in Therapeutic Outcomes by Optimizing Platelet Inhibition With Prasugrel-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 38).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaca, Marc P; Wiviott, Stephen D; Braunwald, Eugene; Murphy, Sabina A; Ruff, Christian T; Antman, Elliott M; Morrow, David A

    2012-01-31

    The availability of more sensitive biomarkers of myonecrosis and a new classification system from the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) have led to evolution of the classification of MI. The prognostic implications of MI defined in the current era have not been well described. We investigated the association between new or recurrent MI by subtype according to the European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/World Health Federation Task Force for the Redefinition of MI Classification System and the risk of cardiovascular death among 13 608 patients with acute coronary syndrome in the Trial to Assess Improvement in Therapeutic Outcomes by Optimizing Platelet Inhibition with Prasugrel-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 38 (TRITON-TIMI 38). The adjusted risk of cardiovascular death was evaluated by landmark analysis starting at the time of the MI through 180 days after the event. Patients who experienced an MI during follow-up had a higher risk of cardiovascular death at 6 months than patients without an MI (6.5% versus 1.3%, P<0.001). This higher risk was present across all subtypes of MI, including type 4a (peri-percutaneous coronary intervention, 3.2%; P<0.001) and type 4b (stent thrombosis, 15.4%; P<0.001). After adjustment for important clinical covariates, the occurrence of any MI was associated with a 5-fold higher risk of death at 6 months (95% confidence interval 3.8-7.1), with similarly increased risk across subtypes. MI is associated with a significantly increased risk of cardiovascular death, with a consistent relationship across all types as defined by the universal classification system. These findings underscore the clinical relevance of these events and the importance of therapies aimed at preventing MI.

  18. An Evaluation of Risk Factors Related to Employment Outcomes for Youth with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sima, Adam P.; Wehman, Paul H.; Chan, Fong; West, Michael D.; Leucking, Richard G.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores non-modifiable risk factors associated with poor post-school competitive employment outcomes for students with disabilities. A classification tree analysis was used with a sample of 2,900 students who were in the second National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2) up to 6 years following school exit to identify groups of…

  19. Destructiveness criteria for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    Two criteria of destructiveness for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant are presented. The first one is a simple linear criterion that allows to compute average response spectra in terms of earthquake accelerogram characteristics. The second defines the destructiveness potential factor P D which measures the capacity of earthquake to produce nonlinear damage. This second criterion that shows large differences of destructiveness capacity for earthquake accelerograms of different seismic environment, specially between subductive and transcursive, is strongly recommended. (author). 8 refs., 1 fig. 1 tab

  20. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  1. Objectives and present status of the German risk evaluation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.; Heuser, F.W.

    1977-01-01

    For the German risk evaluation study, analogous to the Rasmussen report (WASH--1400), embarked upon in June 1976, the Kernkraftwerk Biblis B serves as the plant of reference. The first interim results are available for various sub-headings of the study. The main finding seems to be the decisive importance of the containment in limiting the accident consequences even in those cases where, on account of postulated failure of safety systems, the melt down of the reactor core is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Classification and evaluation strategies of auto-segmentation approaches for PET: Report of AAPM task group No. 211.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatt, Mathieu; Lee, John A; Schmidtlein, Charles R; Naqa, Issam El; Caldwell, Curtis; De Bernardi, Elisabetta; Lu, Wei; Das, Shiva; Geets, Xavier; Gregoire, Vincent; Jeraj, Robert; MacManus, Michael P; Mawlawi, Osama R; Nestle, Ursula; Pugachev, Andrei B; Schöder, Heiko; Shepherd, Tony; Spezi, Emiliano; Visvikis, Dimitris; Zaidi, Habib; Kirov, Assen S

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this educational report is to provide an overview of the present state-of-the-art PET auto-segmentation (PET-AS) algorithms and their respective validation, with an emphasis on providing the user with help in understanding the challenges and pitfalls associated with selecting and implementing a PET-AS algorithm for a particular application. A brief description of the different types of PET-AS algorithms is provided using a classification based on method complexity and type. The advantages and the limitations of the current PET-AS algorithms are highlighted based on current publications and existing comparison studies. A review of the available image datasets and contour evaluation metrics in terms of their applicability for establishing a standardized evaluation of PET-AS algorithms is provided. The performance requirements for the algorithms and their dependence on the application, the radiotracer used and the evaluation criteria are described and discussed. Finally, a procedure for algorithm acceptance and implementation, as well as the complementary role of manual and auto-segmentation are addressed. A large number of PET-AS algorithms have been developed within the last 20 years. Many of the proposed algorithms are based on either fixed or adaptively selected thresholds. More recently, numerous papers have proposed the use of more advanced image analysis paradigms to perform semi-automated delineation of the PET images. However, the level of algorithm validation is variable and for most published algorithms is either insufficient or inconsistent which prevents recommending a single algorithm. This is compounded by the fact that realistic image configurations with low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) and heterogeneous tracer distributions have rarely been used. Large variations in the evaluation methods used in the literature point to the need for a standardized evaluation protocol. Available comparison studies suggest that PET-AS algorithms relying

  3. Classification and evaluation strategies of auto-segmentation approaches for PET: Report of AAPM task group No. 211

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatt, Mathieu; Lee, John A.; Schmidtlein, Charles R.; Naqa, Issam El; Caldwell, Curtis; De Bernardi, Elisabetta; Lu, Wei; Das, Shiva; Geets, Xavier; Gregoire, Vincent; Jeraj, Robert; MacManus, Michael P.; Mawlawi, Osama R.; Nestle, Ursula; Pugachev, Andrei B.; Schöder, Heiko; Shepherd, Tony; Spezi, Emiliano; Visvikis, Dimitris; Zaidi, Habib; Kirov, Assen S.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this educational report is to provide an overview of the present state-of-the-art PET auto-segmentation (PET-AS) algorithms and their respective validation, with an emphasis on providing the user with help in understanding the challenges and pitfalls associated with selecting and implementing a PET-AS algorithm for a particular application. Approach A brief description of the different types of PET-AS algorithms is provided using a classification based on method complexity and type. The advantages and the limitations of the current PET-AS algorithms are highlighted based on current publications and existing comparison studies. A review of the available image datasets and contour evaluation metrics in terms of their applicability for establishing a standardized evaluation of PET-AS algorithms is provided. The performance requirements for the algorithms and their dependence on the application, the radiotracer used and the evaluation criteria are described and discussed. Finally, a procedure for algorithm acceptance and implementation, as well as the complementary role of manual and auto-segmentation are addressed. Findings A large number of PET-AS algorithms have been developed within the last 20 years. Many of the proposed algorithms are based on either fixed or adaptively selected thresholds. More recently, numerous papers have proposed the use of more advanced image analysis paradigms to perform semi-automated delineation of the PET images. However, the level of algorithm validation is variable and for most published algorithms is either insufficient or inconsistent which prevents recommending a single algorithm. This is compounded by the fact that realistic image configurations with low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) and heterogeneous tracer distributions have rarely been used. Large variations in the evaluation methods used in the literature point to the need for a standardized evaluation protocol. Conclusions Available comparison studies

  4. Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  5. Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelo, P. L.

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

  6. DOE LLW classification rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, A.Y.

    1991-01-01

    This report was about the rationale which the US Department of Energy had with low-level radioactive waste (LLW) classification. It is based on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's classification system. DOE site operators met to review the qualifications and characteristics of the classification systems. They evaluated performance objectives, developed waste classification tables, and compiled dose limits on the waste. A goal of the LLW classification system was to allow each disposal site the freedom to develop limits to radionuclide inventories and concentrations according to its own site-specific characteristics. This goal was achieved with the adoption of a performance objectives system based on a performance assessment, with site-specific environmental conditions and engineered disposal systems

  7. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  8. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  9. RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

  10. [New International Classification of Chronic Pancreatitis (M-ANNHEIM multifactor classification system, 2007): principles, merits, and demerits].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimmerman, Ia S

    2008-01-01

    The new International Classification of Chronic Pancreatitis (designated as M-ANNHEIM) proposed by a group of German specialists in late 2007 is reviewed. All its sections are subjected to analysis (risk group categories, clinical stages and phases, variants of clinical course, diagnostic criteria for "established" and "suspected" pancreatitis, instrumental methods and functional tests used in the diagnosis, evaluation of the severity of the disease using a scoring system, stages of elimination of pain syndrome). The new classification is compared with the earlier classification proposed by the author. Its merits and demerits are discussed.

  11. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  12. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  13. DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOLS TO GENERATE RISK INDICATORS REGARDING DEGRADATION PROCESSES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kioussi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state.Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such

  14. A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

    2017-08-01

    Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

  15. Health risk evaluation of certain compounds found in contaminated soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dock, L.; Victorin, K.; Vahter, M.; Ahlborg, U.G.

    1991-01-01

    As part of a redevelopment plan for an old gas works site in Stockholm, the Institute of Environmental Medicine (IEM) at the Karolinska Institute was asked to evaluate the health risks associated with exposure to coal tar, containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), phenols, cyanides, sulfur compounds, arsenic, lead, cadmium and mercury in soil and to suggest guide line values for these compounds in residential areas. Our health risk evaluation was limited to possible effects following direct exposure to contaminated soil. Indirect exposure, i.e. through contaminated ground water or home-grown vegetables, was not considered, nor were effects on building material. The routes of exposure considered were ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation of soil dust. Small children were considered the primary risk group. The critical health effect associated with dermal exposure to PAH in soil is skin cancer. Ingestion of phenols, cyanides and sulphur compounds may cause acute health effects. Recommended guide line values for these contaminants were generally obtained by dividing the lowest observed effect levels with appropriate safety factors. The metals considered may cause both acute and chronic health effects. The guide line values for cadmium and mercury in soil were set based on a maximum intake through ingestion of soil corresponding to 10% of the provisional tolerable weekly intake levels (PTWI) set by FAO/WHO. For arsenic, the guide line value corresponds to 5% of the PTWI-value for a child. The suggested guide line level for lead was based on studied on the association between soil lead concentration and blood lead levels in children. The suggested guide line level for lead in soil may increase the blood-lead in a child by less than 10%. (31 refs.) (au)

  16. Optimization of reproductive management programs using lift chart analysis and cost-sensitive evaluation of classification errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahinfar, Saleh; Guenther, Jerry N; Page, C David; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor E; Fricke, Paul M; Weigel, Kent A

    2015-06-01

    yield relative to contemporaries. In the second data set, the strategy of inseminating only a subset consisting of 59% of the most fertile cows conferred a gain in profit of $5.21 per eligible cow in a monthly breeding period. These results suggest that, when used with a powerful classification algorithm, lift chart analysis and cost-sensitive evaluation of correctly classified and misclassified insemination events can enhance the performance and profitability of reproductive management programs on commercial dairy farms. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  18. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  19. [Evaluation of risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahas, Eliana Aguiar Petri; Omodei, Michelle Sako; Cangussu, Luciana Mendes; Nahas-Neto, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    It was to evaluate the frequency and the risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 women (age: 45-65 years and amenorrhea >12 months) with time since menopause fall was identified as an unexpected unintentional change in position which causes an individual to remain in a lower level in relation to the initial position. The history of self-reported falls during the previous 24 months, and clinical and anthropometric data (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)) and bone densitometric measures were analyzed. For statistical analysis, c² trend test and the logistic regression method (odds ratio (OR)) were used for the comparison between groups of women with and without falls. Of the 358 women, 48.0% (172/358) had a history of falls and 17.4% (30/172) had fractures. The fall occurred indoors (at home) in 58.7% (101/172). The mean age was 53.7 ± 6.5 years, time since menopause 5.8 ± 3.5 years, BMI 28.3 ± 4.6 kg/m² and WC 89.0 ± 11.4 cm. There were differences as the occurrence of smoking and diabetes, with greater frequency among fallers vs. non-fallers, 25.6 versus 16.1% and 12.8 versus 5.9%, respectively (prisk of falls in the presence of influential variables, it was observed that risk increased with current smoking status (OR 1.93; 95%CI 1.01-3.71), whereas other clinical and anthropometric variables did not influence this risk. In early postmenopausal women there was higher frequency of falls. Current smoking was clinical indicators of risk for falls. With the recognition of factors for falling, preventive measures become important, as the orientation of abolishing smoking.

  20. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  1. Performance Evaluation of Downscaling Sentinel-2 Imagery for Land Use and Land Cover Classification by Spectral-Spatial Features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongrui Zheng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Land Use and Land Cover (LULC classification is vital for environmental and ecological applications. Sentinel-2 is a new generation land monitoring satellite with the advantages of novel spectral capabilities, wide coverage and fine spatial and temporal resolutions. The effects of different spatial resolution unification schemes and methods on LULC classification have been scarcely investigated for Sentinel-2. This paper bridged this gap by comparing the differences between upscaling and downscaling as well as different downscaling algorithms from the point of view of LULC classification accuracy. The studied downscaling algorithms include nearest neighbor resampling and five popular pansharpening methods, namely, Gram-Schmidt (GS, nearest neighbor diffusion (NNDiffusion, PANSHARP algorithm proposed by Y. Zhang, wavelet transformation fusion (WTF and high-pass filter fusion (HPF. Two spatial features, textural metrics derived from Grey-Level-Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM and extended attribute profiles (EAPs, are investigated to make up for the shortcoming of pixel-based spectral classification. Random forest (RF is adopted as the classifier. The experiment was conducted in Xitiaoxi watershed, China. The results demonstrated that downscaling obviously outperforms upscaling in terms of classification accuracy. For downscaling, image sharpening has no obvious advantages than spatial interpolation. Different image sharpening algorithms have distinct effects. Two multiresolution analysis (MRA-based methods, i.e., WTF and HFP, achieve the best performance. GS achieved a similar accuracy with NNDiffusion and PANSHARP. Compared to image sharpening, the introduction of spatial features, both GLCM and EAPs can greatly improve the classification accuracy for Sentinel-2 imagery. Their effects on overall accuracy are similar but differ significantly to specific classes. In general, using the spectral bands downscaled by nearest neighbor interpolation can meet

  2. Transforming landscape ecological evaluations using sub-pixel remote sensing classifications: A study of invasive saltcedar (Tamarix spp.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Amy E.

    Invasive species disrupt landscape patterns and compromise the functionality of ecosystem processes. Non-native saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) poses significant threats to native vegetation and groundwater resources in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, and quantifying spatial and temporal distribution patterns is essential for monitoring its spread. Advanced remote sensing classification techniques such as sub-pixel classifications are able to detect and discriminate saltcedar from native vegetation with high accuracy, but these types of classifications are not compatible with landscape metrics, which are the primary tool available for statistically assessing distribution patterns, because they do not have discrete class boundaries. The objective of this research is to develop new methods that allow sub-pixel classifications to be analyzed using landscape metrics. The research will be carried out through three specific aims: (1) develop and test a method to transform continuous sub-pixel classifications into categorical representations that are compatible with widely used landscape metric tools, (2) establish a gradient-based concept of landscape using sub-pixel classifications and the technique developed in the first objective to explore the relationships between pattern and process, and (3) generate a new super-resolution mapping technique method to predict the spatial locations of fractional land covers within a pixel. Results show that the threshold gradient method is appropriate for discretizing sub-pixel data, and can be used to generate increased information about the landscape compared to traditional single-value metrics. Additionally, the super-resolution classification technique was also able to provide detailed sub-pixel mapping information, but additional work will be needed to develop rigorous validation and accuracy assessment techniques.

  3. Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

  4. Applicability of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF for evaluation of children with cerebral palsy: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lílian de Fátima Dornelas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To examine and synthesize the knowledge available in the literature on the instruments used in the perspective of functionality in children with cerebral palsy (CP, and to review the literature evaluating the instruments used for the implementation of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF in children with CP. Method: The search was conducted in the electronic databases Google Scholar, PubMed, Lilacs and Medline, for articles published between January 2006 and December 2012, using the following keywords: cerebral palsy, child and assessment, combined with ICF. Ten articles were selected for analysis according to pre-established criteria. Results: The authors proposed tools that could standardize the assessment for classification of the components “Structure and function of the body”, “Activities and Participation” and “Environmental Factors”, proposing instruments such as Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM, Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI, Goal Attainment Scaling (GAS, Manual Ability Classification System (MACS, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS, Physicians Rating Scale (PRS, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale (VABS, Pediatric Functional Independence Measure (Wee FIM, Gillette Functional Assessment Questionnaire (FAQ, Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL, Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument (PODCI, Gillette Gait Index (GGI, Energy Expenditure Index (EEI, and Vécu et Santé Perçue de l’Adolescent (VSP-A. Conclusion: The domains “Structure and function of the body” and “Activities and Participation” are often classified according to ICF in children with CP, and they present a variety of instrumentation for applicability of classification.

  5. Use of data mining techniques to investigate disease risk classification as a proxy for compromised biosecurity of cattle herds in Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pfeiffer Dirk U

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biosecurity is at the forefront of the fight against infectious diseases in animal populations. Few research studies have attempted to identify and quantify the effectiveness of biosecurity against disease introduction or presence in cattle farms and, when done, they have relied on the collection of on-farm data. Data on environmental, animal movement, demographic/husbandry systems and density disease determinants can be collated without requiring additional specific on-farm data collection activities, since they have already been collected for some other purposes. The aim of this study was to classify cattle herds according to their risk of disease presence as a proxy for compromised biosecurity in the cattle population of Wales in 2004 for risk-based surveillance purposes. Results Three data mining methods have been applied: logistic regression, classification trees and factor analysis. Using the cattle holding population in Wales, a holding was considered positive if at least bovine TB or one of the ten most frequently diagnosed infectious or transmissible non-notifiable diseases in England and Wales, according to the Veterinary Investigation Surveillance Report (VIDA had been diagnosed in 2004. High-risk holdings can be described as open large cattle herds located in high-density cattle areas with frequent movements off to many locations within Wales. Additional risks are associated with the holding being a dairy enterprise and with a large farming area. Conclusion This work has demonstrated the potential of mining various livestock-relevant databases to obtain generic criteria for individual cattle herd biosecurity risk classification. Despite the data and analytical constraints the described risk profiles are highly specific and present variable sensitivity depending on the model specifications. Risk profiling of farms provides a tool for designing targeted surveillance activities for endemic or emerging diseases

  6. A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

  7. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  8. Population-based evaluation of a suggested anatomic and clinical classification of congenital heart defects based on the International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goffinet François

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Classification of the overall spectrum of congenital heart defects (CHD has always been challenging, in part because of the diversity of the cardiac phenotypes, but also because of the oft-complex associations. The purpose of our study was to establish a comprehensive and easy-to-use classification of CHD for clinical and epidemiological studies based on the long list of the International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code (IPCCC. Methods We coded each individual malformation using six-digit codes from the long list of IPCCC. We then regrouped all lesions into 10 categories and 23 subcategories according to a multi-dimensional approach encompassing anatomic, diagnostic and therapeutic criteria. This anatomic and clinical classification of congenital heart disease (ACC-CHD was then applied to data acquired from a population-based cohort of patients with CHD in France, made up of 2867 cases (82% live births, 1.8% stillbirths and 16.2% pregnancy terminations. Results The majority of cases (79.5% could be identified with a single IPCCC code. The category "Heterotaxy, including isomerism and mirror-imagery" was the only one that typically required more than one code for identification of cases. The two largest categories were "ventricular septal defects" (52% and "anomalies of the outflow tracts and arterial valves" (20% of cases. Conclusion Our proposed classification is not new, but rather a regrouping of the known spectrum of CHD into a manageable number of categories based on anatomic and clinical criteria. The classification is designed to use the code numbers of the long list of IPCCC but can accommodate ICD-10 codes. Its exhaustiveness, simplicity, and anatomic basis make it useful for clinical and epidemiologic studies, including those aimed at assessment of risk factors and outcomes.

  9. Semi-automated landform classification for hazard mapping of soil liquefaction by earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Takayuki

    2018-05-01

    Soil liquefaction damages were caused by huge earthquake in Japan, and the similar damages are concerned in near future huge earthquake. On the other hand, a preparation of soil liquefaction risk map (soil liquefaction hazard map) is impeded by the difficulty of evaluation of soil liquefaction risk. Generally, relative soil liquefaction risk should be able to be evaluated from landform classification data by using experimental rule based on the relationship between extent of soil liquefaction damage and landform classification items associated with past earthquake. Therefore, I rearranged the relationship between landform classification items and soil liquefaction risk intelligibly in order to enable the evaluation of soil liquefaction risk based on landform classification data appropriately and efficiently. And I developed a new method of generating landform classification data of 50-m grid size from existing landform classification data of 250-m grid size by using digital elevation model (DEM) data and multi-band satellite image data in order to evaluate soil liquefaction risk in detail spatially. It is expected that the products of this study contribute to efficient producing of soil liquefaction hazard map by local government.

  10. Risk evaluation of impurities in topical excipients: The acetol case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jente Boonen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pharmaceutical excipients for topical use may contain impurities, which are often neglected from a toxicity qualification viewpoint. The possible impurities in the most frequently used topical excipients were evaluated in-silico for their toxicity hazard. Acetol, an impurity likely present in different topical pharmaceutical excipients such as propylene glycol and glycerol, was withheld for the evaluation of its health risk after dermal exposure.An ex-vivo in-vitro permeation study using human skin in a Franz Diffusion Cell set-up and GC as quantification methodology showed a significant skin penetration with an overall Kp value of 1.82×10−3 cm/h. Using these data, limit specifications after application of a dermal pharmaceutical product were estimated. Based on the TTC approach of Cramer class I substances, i.e. 1800 µg/(day∙person, the toxicity-qualified specification limits of acetol in topical excipients were calculated to be 90 µg/mL and 180 µg/mL for propylene glycol and glycerol, respectively.It is concluded that setting specification limits for impurities within a quality-by-design approach requires a case-by-case evaluation as demonstrated here with acetol. Keywords: Acetol, Impurity, Excipients, Transdermal penetration, Specification limits

  11. A comprehensive quality evaluation method by FT-NIR spectroscopy and chemometric: Fine classification and untargeted authentication against multiple frauds for Chinese Ganoderma lucidum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Haiyan; Yin, Qiaobo; Xu, Lu; Wang, Weizheng; Chen, Feng; Yang, Tianming

    2017-07-01

    The origins and authenticity against frauds are two essential aspects of food quality. In this work, a comprehensive quality evaluation method by FT-NIR spectroscopy and chemometrics were suggested to address the geographical origins and authentication of Chinese Ganoderma lucidum (GL). Classification for 25 groups of GL samples (7 common species from 15 producing areas) was performed using near-infrared spectroscopy and interval-combination One-Versus-One least squares support vector machine (IC-OVO-LS-SVM). Untargeted analysis of 4 adulterants of cheaper mushrooms was performed by one-class partial least squares (OCPLS) modeling for each of the 7 GL species. After outlier diagnosis and comparing the influences of different preprocessing methods and spectral intervals on classification, IC-OVO-LS-SVM with standard normal variate (SNV) spectra obtained a total classification accuracy of 0.9317, an average sensitivity and specificity of 0.9306 and 0.9971, respectively. With SNV or second-order derivative (D2) spectra, OCPLS could detect at least 2% or more doping levels of adulterants for 5 of the 7 GL species and 5% or more doping levels for the other 2 GL species. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using new chemometrics and NIR spectroscopy for fine classification of GL geographical origins and species as well as for untargeted analysis of multiple adulterants.

  12. Diagnosing multibacillary leprosy: A comparative evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of slit-skin smear, bacterial index of granuloma and WHO operational classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhushan Premanshu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In view of the relatively poor performance of skin smears WHO adopted a purely clinical operational classification, however the poor specificity of operational classification leads to overdiagnosis and unwarranted overtreatment while the poor sensitivity leads to underdiagnosis of multibacillary (MB cases with inadequate treatment. Bacilli are more frequently and abundantly demonstrated in tissue sections. Aims and Methods: We compared WHO classification, slit-skin smears (SSS and demonstration of bacilli in biopsies (bacterial index of granuloma or BIG with regards to their efficacy in correctly identifying multibacillary cases. The tests were done on 141 patients and were evaluated for their ability to diagnose true MB leprosy using detailed statistical analysis. Results: A total of 76 patients were truly MB with either positive smears, BIG positivity or with a typical histology of BB, BL or LL. Amongst these 76 true-MB patients, WHO operational classification correctly identified multibacillary status in 56 (73.68%, and SSS in 43 (56.58%, while BIG correctly identified 65 (85.53% true-MB cases. Conclusion: BIG was most sensitive and effective of the three methods especially in paucilesional patients. We suggest adding estimation of bacterial index of granuloma in the diagnostic workup of paucilesional patients.

  13. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  14. Residual tumor size and IGCCCG risk classification predict additional vascular procedures in patients with germ cell tumors and residual tumor resection: a multicenter analysis of the German Testicular Cancer Study Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Christian; Pfister, David; Busch, Jonas; Bingöl, Cigdem; Ranft, Ulrich; Schrader, Mark; Dieckmann, Klaus-Peter; Heidenreich, Axel; Albers, Peter

    2012-02-01

    Residual tumor resection (RTR) after chemotherapy in patients with advanced germ cell tumors (GCT) is an important part of the multimodal treatment. To provide a complete resection of residual tumor, additional surgical procedures are sometimes necessary. In particular, additional vascular interventions are high-risk procedures that require multidisciplinary planning and adequate resources to optimize outcome. The aim was to identify parameters that predict additional vascular procedures during RTR in GCT patients. A retrospective analysis was performed in 402 GCT patients who underwent 414 RTRs in 9 German Testicular Cancer Study Group (GTCSG) centers. Overall, 339 of 414 RTRs were evaluable with complete perioperative data sets. The RTR database was queried for additional vascular procedures (inferior vena cava [IVC] interventions, aortic prosthesis) and correlated to International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) classification and residual tumor volume. In 40 RTRs, major vascular procedures (23 IVC resections with or without prosthesis, 11 partial IVC resections, and 6 aortic prostheses) were performed. In univariate analysis, the necessity of IVC intervention was significantly correlated with IGCCCG (14.1% intermediate/poor vs 4.8% good; p=0.0047) and residual tumor size (3.7% size risk features must initially be identified as high-risk patients for vascular procedures and therefore should be referred to specialized surgical centers with the ad hoc possibility of vascular interventions. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Deep learning in breast cancer risk assessment: evaluation of convolutional neural networks on a clinical dataset of full-field digital mammograms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L; Huynh, Benjamin Q; Antropova, Natalia O

    2017-10-01

    To evaluate deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk in which convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with transfer learning are used to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images instead of using computerized radiographic texture analysis (RTA), 456 clinical FFDM cases were included: a "high-risk" BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers dataset (53 cases), a "high-risk" unilateral cancer patients dataset (75 cases), and a "low-risk dataset" (328 cases). Deep learning was compared to the use of features from RTA, as well as to a combination of both in the task of distinguishing between high- and low-risk subjects. Similar classification performances were obtained using CNN [area under the curve [Formula: see text]; standard error [Formula: see text

  16. The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

    2018-03-01

    For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

  17. Development of a channel classification to evaluate potential for cottonwood restoration, lower segments of the Middle Missouri River, South Dakota and Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Robert B.; Elliott, Caroline M.; Huhmann, Brittany L.

    2010-01-01

    This report documents development of a spatially explicit river and flood-plain classification to evaluate potential for cottonwood restoration along the Sharpe and Fort Randall segments of the Middle Missouri River. This project involved evaluating existing topographic, water-surface elevation, and soils data to determine if they were sufficient to create a classification similar to the Land Capability Potential Index (LCPI) developed by Jacobson and others (U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007–5256) and developing a geomorphically based classification to apply to evaluating restoration potential.Existing topographic, water-surface elevation, and soils data for the Middle Missouri River were not sufficient to replicate the LCPI. The 1/3-arc-second National Elevation Dataset delineated most of the topographic complexity and produced cumulative frequency distributions similar to a high-resolution 5-meter topographic dataset developed for the Lower Missouri River. However, lack of bathymetry in the National Elevation Dataset produces a potentially critical bias in evaluation of frequently flooded surfaces close to the river. High-resolution soils data alone were insufficient to replace the information content of the LCPI. In test reaches in the Lower Missouri River, soil drainage classes from the Soil Survey Geographic Database database correctly classified 0.8–98.9 percent of the flood-plain area at or below the 5-year return interval flood stage depending on state of channel incision; on average for river miles 423–811, soil drainage class correctly classified only 30.2 percent of the flood-plain area at or below the 5-year return interval flood stage. Lack of congruence between soil characteristics and present-day hydrology results from relatively rapid incision and aggradation of segments of the Missouri River resulting from impoundments and engineering. The most sparsely available data in the Middle Missouri River were water

  18. A Non Linear Scoring Approach for Evaluating Balance: Classification of Elderly as Fallers and Non-Fallers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audiffren, Julien; Bargiotas, Ioannis; Vayatis, Nicolas; Vidal, Pierre-Paul; Ricard, Damien

    2016-01-01

    Almost one third of population 65 years-old and older faces at least one fall per year. An accurate evaluation of the risk of fall through simple and easy-to-use measurements is an important issue in current clinic. A common way to evaluate balance in posturography is through the recording of the centre-of-pressure (CoP) displacement (statokinesigram) with force platforms. A variety of indices have been proposed to differentiate fallers from non fallers. However, no agreement has been reached whether these analyses alone can explain sufficiently the complex synergies of postural control. In this work, we study the statokinesigrams of 84 elderly subjects (80.3+- 6.4 years old), which had no impairment related to balance control. Each subject was recorded 25 seconds with eyes open and 25 seconds with eyes closed and information pertaining to the presence of problems of balance, such as fall, in the last six months, was collected. Five descriptors of the statokinesigrams were computed for each record, and a Ranking Forest algorithm was used to combine those features in order to evaluate each subject's balance with a score. A classical train-test split approach was used to evaluate the performance of the method through ROC analysis. ROC analysis showed that the performance of each descriptor separately was close to a random classifier (AUC between 0.49 and 0.54). On the other hand, the score obtained by our method reached an AUC of 0.75 on the test set, consistent over multiple train-test split. This non linear multi-dimensional approach seems appropriate in evaluating complex postural control.

  19. A Non Linear Scoring Approach for Evaluating Balance: Classification of Elderly as Fallers and Non-Fallers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julien Audiffren

    Full Text Available Almost one third of population 65 years-old and older faces at least one fall per year. An accurate evaluation of the risk of fall through simple and easy-to-use measurements is an important issue in current clinic. A common way to evaluate balance in posturography is through the recording of the centre-of-pressure (CoP displacement (statokinesigram with force platforms. A variety of indices have been proposed to differentiate fallers from non fallers. However, no agreement has been reached whether these analyses alone can explain sufficiently the complex synergies of postural control. In this work, we study the statokinesigrams of 84 elderly subjects (80.3+- 6.4 years old, which had no impairment related to balance control. Each subject was recorded 25 seconds with eyes open and 25 seconds with eyes closed and information pertaining to the presence of problems of balance, such as fall, in the last six months, was collected. Five descriptors of the statokinesigrams were computed for each record, and a Ranking Forest algorithm was used to combine those features in order to evaluate each subject's balance with a score. A classical train-test split approach was used to evaluate the performance of the method through ROC analysis. ROC analysis showed that the performance of each descriptor separately was close to a random classifier (AUC between 0.49 and 0.54. On the other hand, the score obtained by our method reached an AUC of 0.75 on the test set, consistent over multiple train-test split. This non linear multi-dimensional approach seems appropriate in evaluating complex postural control.

  20. Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery

  1. Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)

  2. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  3. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  4. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  5. CT of early and late posttraumatic brain lesions in evaluation of the risk of deterioration and prognosis of clinical outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanim, A.; Boguslawska, R.; Walecki, J.

    2003-01-01

    The authors analysed Traumatic Coma Data Bank (TCDB) based on the initial posttraumatic brain computerized tomography findings (CT) using the Marshall's classification. It utilizes the status of the mesencephalic cisterns, the degree of medline shift and the presence or absence of one or more surgical masses. This classification allows us to assess the risk of intracranial hypertension. 1. The prognostic value of computerized tomography in patients with head injuries based on TCDB (Marshall) classification. 2. The relationship between the CT findings and the clinical examination. 3. The evaluation of the patients condition one year after trauma. The paper summarized the outcome of 523 patients with head injuries, 383 male (73.23%) and 140 female (26.77%), who underwent the initial CT scan in the first 48 hours after the injury. The age of the patients ranged from 17 to 88 years, the mean age for male was 42.86-18.72 years, and for female 47-19.22 years. The Glasgow Coma Scale was used at admission to hospital. The general condition of patients and the results of therapy were different in each category. 221 patients (42.26%) underwent surgery and 302 (57.74%) were treated medically. The highest mortality and complication rate was observed in categories III, IV and VII. The risk of mortality rate was higher in older group (age >40 years), chi2=0.528; p 0.0001). Except for localization and volume of the changes, the outcome of patients with head injuries depends on the cistern condition. The compression of cisterns menaces the secondary brainstem damage. The clinical outcome one year after the injury resembled CT scan findings in all categories. (author)

  6. Evaluation of bullying in persons with different risk for psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasić Jelena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emerging research suggests that being exposed to bullying during childhood can increase the risk of psychotic experiences in adulthood. Aggressive peer relations among adolescents are more frequent in boys, both for being victims or perpetrators. Aim: To evaluate whether bullying was more prevalent among Serbian clinical population of patients with psychosis in comparison to their healthy siblings and controls, and to analyze gender differences regarding bullying. Material and methods: This cross-sectional study evaluated schizophrenia spectrum patients (n = 52, age = 29.3 ± 5.9 yrs, in remission, illness duration <10 yrs, their healthy siblings (n = 55, age = 28.6 ± 6.8 yrs and controls (n=50, age=25.3±1.5 yrs. The subjects fulfilled the bullying questionnaire, five item self-rating scale. Descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney nonparametric test were used to analyze the data. Results: Compared to their healthy siblings, the patients were more likely to report that they were bullied (patients: 7.0 ± 3.5, siblings: 5.2 ± 2.0, p = 0.000, but patients also bullied others more (patients: 1.4 ± 0.8, siblings: 1.1 ± 0.4, p = 0.02. Comparing the group of patients and controls, we did not find statistically significant difference in any category. The male gender brings higher risk of being physically bullied which has been proven for all examined groups (patients- p = 0.03, controls and siblings- p = 0.00. Conclusion: Aggressive peer relations possibly contribute to the evolution of psychosis, as they were more prevalent in patients in comparison to their healthy siblings, particularly in males. Improved prevention of bullying and use of treatments against its psychological consequences might be one of the possible methods to ameliorate the course of psychosis.

  7. Risk Evaluation for Cyclic Aliphatic Bromide Cluster (HBCD Cluster)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  8. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  9. Context-sensitive Information security Risk identification and evaluation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The objective of my research is to improve and support the process of Information security Risk Assessment by designing a scalable Risk argumentation framework for socio-digital-technical Risk. Due to the various types of IT systems, diversity of architectures and dynamic nature of Risk, there is no

  10. Risk allocation approach to reactor safety design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gokcek, O.; Temme, M.I.; Derby, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    This paper describes a risk allocation technique used for determining nuclear power plant design reliability requirements. The concept of risk allocation-optimum choice of safety function reliabilities under a maximum risk constraint - is described. An example of risk allocation is presented to demonstrate the application of the methodology

  11. Evaluating the statistical performance of less applied algorithms in classification of worldview-3 imagery data in an urbanized landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranaie, Mehrdad; Soffianian, Alireza; Pourmanafi, Saeid; Mirghaffari, Noorollah; Tarkesh, Mostafa

    2018-03-01

    In recent decade, analyzing the remotely sensed imagery is considered as one of the most common and widely used procedures in the environmental studies. In this case, supervised image classification techniques play a central role. Hence, taking a high resolution Worldview-3 over a mixed urbanized landscape in Iran, three less applied image classification methods including Bagged CART, Stochastic gradient boosting model and Neural network with feature extraction were tested and compared with two prevalent methods: random forest and support vector machine with linear kernel. To do so, each method was run ten time and three validation techniques was used to estimate the accuracy statistics consist of cross validation, independent validation and validation with total of train data. Moreover, using ANOVA and Tukey test, statistical difference significance between the classification methods was significantly surveyed. In general, the results showed that random forest with marginal difference compared to Bagged CART and stochastic gradient boosting model is the best performing method whilst based on independent validation there was no significant difference between the performances of classification methods. It should be finally noted that neural network with feature extraction and linear support vector machine had better processing speed than other.

  12. How Should Children with Speech Sound Disorders be Classified? A Review and Critical Evaluation of Current Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, R.; Knight, R.

    201