WorldWideScience

Sample records for evaluation risk analysis

  1. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  2. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  3. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  4. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  5. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  6. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  7. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  8. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  9. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  10. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  11. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  12. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  13. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  14. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  15. Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutleber, D.S.; Heiberger, E.M.; Morris, T.D.

    1995-01-01

    Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures

  16. Using Multi-criteria Evaluation and GIS for Flood Risk Analysis in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using Multi-criteria Evaluation and GIS for Flood Risk Analysis in Informal ... Using a case study of an informal settlement in Cape Town, this study ... The shack outlines of the informal settlement were digitized using CTCC aerial imagery.

  17. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong; Kim, HyeongTaek

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  18. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  19. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  20. Place of Risk Analysis in Tax Audit: Some Country Practices and an Evaluation for Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feride BAKAR

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of information technologies and risk analysis have become an important position in tax audit, as in all fields. Systems used in this area, are different in many ways and for this reason, making comparative study, evaluating best practices and its effects to results should be examined. In this study, development of risk analysis systems in Australia, United Kingdom, Austria, the USA and their place ensuring effectiveness of tax audit was investigated. Thus, some findings were made for Turkey with help of examining the current status of tax audits based on risk analysis. In the past, risk analysis was used for providing effectiveness of tax audit, but today the purpose has evolved to focus increasing tax compliance. For realization of this purpose in Turkey, disclosure of risk areas in general, informing taxpayers and establishment of cooperative compliance model with large business is needed.

  1. Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

    OpenAIRE

    Zongtang Xie; Jiuping Xu; Yanfei Deng

    2016-01-01

    The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the asse...

  2. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  3. Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongtang Xie

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.

  4. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  5. Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

    2017-06-01

    The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  6. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harry, T; Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  7. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry, T [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States); University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  8. A Multicriteria Risk Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forest Management Alternatives on Forest Health in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervé Jactel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA has been developed to help decision makers choose between actions that require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range of management intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs (i.e., close to nature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomass production on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental, Atlantic and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies relevant to wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow and biotic (insect pests, pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by corresponding likelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, risk was lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the most damaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk, due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespective of tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative

  9. Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

  10. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (2) Application concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, Masanobu; Kanaida, Syuuji; Kamiya, Kouichi; Sato, Kunihiko; Kuroiwa, Katsuya

    2016-01-01

    The influence of the fault displacement on the facility should to be evaluated not only by the activity of the fault but also by obtaining risk information by considering scenarios including such as the frequency and the degree of the hazard, which should be an appropriate approach for nuclear safety. An applicable concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences for evaluating the influence of the fault displacement is proposed. By use of this analysis, we can evaluate of the safety functions and margin for core damage, verify the efficiency of equipment of portable type and make a decision to take additional measures to reduce the risk by using obtained risk information. (author)

  11. Extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems for policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotte, E.U.

    1984-01-01

    The social compatibility of future energy scenarios is analysed in order to improve the political decision making. Social compatibility analysis is a form of technology assessment focusing on societal and social issues. The value tree analysis method is applied to collect and structure the values and concerns of important societal groups. Nine relevant groups and organizations in the society of the Federal Republic of Germany are included in the study. A combined value tree is formed by integration of the individual value trees. The overall value tree is transformed into an operational and systematic catalogue of criteria. Measurement instructions and scales are introduced as indicators for the extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems. The assessment of specified future energy options is performed by selected scientific experts. The results can improve the political decision-making process with respect to societal needs and desires. (author)

  12. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  13. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  14. Road safety risk evaluation and target setting using data envelopment analysis and its extensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yongjun; Hermans, Elke; Brijs, Tom; Wets, Geert; Vanhoof, Koen

    2012-09-01

    Currently, comparison between countries in terms of their road safety performance is widely conducted in order to better understand one's own safety situation and to learn from those best-performing countries by indicating practical targets and formulating action programmes. In this respect, crash data such as the number of road fatalities and casualties are mostly investigated. However, the absolute numbers are not directly comparable between countries. Therefore, the concept of risk, which is defined as the ratio of road safety outcomes and some measure of exposure (e.g., the population size, the number of registered vehicles, or distance travelled), is often used in the context of benchmarking. Nevertheless, these risk indicators are not consistent in most cases. In other words, countries may have different evaluation results or ranking positions using different exposure information. In this study, data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a performance measurement technique is investigated to provide an overall perspective on a country's road safety situation, and further assess whether the road safety outcomes registered in a country correspond to the numbers that can be expected based on the level of exposure. In doing so, three model extensions are considered, which are the DEA based road safety model (DEA-RS), the cross-efficiency method, and the categorical DEA model. Using the measures of exposure to risk as the model's input and the number of road fatalities as output, an overall road safety efficiency score is computed for the 27 European Union (EU) countries based on the DEA-RS model, and the ranking of countries in accordance with their cross-efficiency scores is evaluated. Furthermore, after applying clustering analysis to group countries with inherent similarity in their practices, the categorical DEA-RS model is adopted to identify best-performing and underperforming countries in each cluster, as well as the reference sets or benchmarks for those

  15. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-09-12

    Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  17. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  19. Evaluating management risks using landscape trajectory analysis: a case study of California fisher

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig M. Thompson; William J. Zielinski; Kathryn L. Purcell

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem management requires an understanding of how landscapes vary in space and time, how this variation can be affected by management decisions or stochastic events, and the potential consequences for species. Landscape trajectory analysis, coupled with a basic knowledge of species habitat selection, offers a straightforward approach to ecological risk analysis and...

  20. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  1. Quality Risk Evaluation of the Food Supply Chain Using a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain can reduce quality information asymmetry and food quality incidents and promote nationally integrated regulations for food quality. In order to evaluate it, a quality risk evaluation indicator system for the food supply chain is constructed based on an extensive literature review in this paper. Furthermore, a mathematical model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain is developed. A computational experiment aimed at verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model is conducted on the basis of a questionnaire survey. The results suggest that this model can be used as a general guideline to assess the quality risk level in the food supply chain and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on food quality management.

  2. ATWS: a reappraisal, part II, evaluation of societal risks due to reactor protection systems failure. Vol. 3. Pwr risk analysis. Phase report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lellouche, G.S.

    1976-08-01

    This document is the third volume of part 2 in a series of studies which will examine the basis for the problem of Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). The purpose of part 2 is an evaluation of societal risks due to RPS failure based on more current data and methodology than used in WASH-1270. This volume examines and documents the potential contribution to societal risk due to ATWS in the PWR. Volumes 1 and 2 described a similar analysis for the BWR

  3. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  4. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  5. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...... the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...

  6. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...... for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...

  7. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  8. Evaluation of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) classes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarzabal, Omar A; Rowe, Ellen

    2017-04-01

    The terms hazard and risk are significant building blocks for the organization of risk-based food safety plans. Unfortunately, these terms are not clear for some personnel working in food manufacturing facilities. In addition, there are few examples of active learning modules for teaching adult participants the principles of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk to participants of HACCP classes provided by the University of Vermont Extension in 2015 and 2016. This interactive module is comprised of a questionnaire; group playing of a dice game that we have previously introduced in the teaching of HACCP; the discussion of the terms hazard and risk; and a self-assessment questionnaire to evaluate the teaching of hazard and risk. From 71 adult participants that completed this module, 40 participants (56%) provided the most appropriate definition of hazard, 19 participants (27%) provided the most appropriate definition of risk, 14 participants (20%) provided the most appropriate definitions of both hazard and risk, and 23 participants (32%) did not provide an appropriate definition for hazard or risk. Self-assessment data showed an improvement in the understanding of these terms (P active learning modules to teach food safety classes. This study suggests that active learning helps food personnel better understand important food safety terms that serve as building blocks for the understanding of more complex food safety topics.

  9. A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

  10. Geostatistical methods for radiological evaluation and risk analysis of contaminated premises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desnoyers, Y.; Jeannee, N.; Chiles, J.P.; Dubot, D.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: At the end of process equipment dismantling, the complete decontamination of nuclear facilities requires the radiological assessment of residual activity levels of building structures. As stated by the IAEA, 'Segregation and characterization of contaminated materials are the key elements of waste minimization'. From this point of view, the set up of an appropriate evaluation methodology is of primordial importance. The radiological characterization of contaminated premises can be divided into three steps. First, the most exhaustive facility analysis provides historical, functional and qualitative information. Then, a systematic (exhaustive or not) control of the emergent signal is performed by means of in situ measurement methods such as surface control device combined with in situ gamma spectrometry. Besides, in order to assess the contamination depth, samples can be collected from boreholes at several locations within the premises and analyzed. Combined with historical information and emergent signal maps, such data improve and reinforce the preliminary waste zoning. In order to provide reliable estimates while avoiding supplementary investigation costs, there is therefore a crucial need for sampling optimization methods together with appropriate data processing techniques. The relevance of the geostatistical methodology relies on the presence of a spatial continuity for radiological contamination. In this case, geostatistics provides reliable methods for activity estimation, uncertainty quantification and risk analysis, which are essential decision-making tools for decommissioning and dismantling projects of nuclear installations. Besides, the ability of this geostatistical framework to provide answers to several key issues that generally occur during the clean-up preparation phase is discussed: How to optimise the investigation costs? How to deal with data quality issues? How to consistently take into account auxiliary information such as historical

  11. Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

  12. An evaluation of the reliability and usefulness of external-initiator PRA [probabilistic risk analysis] methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.

    1990-01-01

    The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally ''mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  13. An evaluation of the reliability and usefulness of external-initiator PRA (probabilistic risk analysis) methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E. (Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (USA))

    1990-01-01

    The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

    2017-04-01

    In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

  15. Evaluation of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP classes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar A. Oyarzabal

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The terms hazard and risk are significant building blocks for the organization of risk-based food safety plans. Unfortunately, these terms are not clear for some personnel working in food manufacturing facilities. In addition, there are few examples of active learning modules for teaching adult participants the principles of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk to participants of HACCP classes provided by the University of Vermont Extension in 2015 and 2016. This interactive module is comprised of a questionnaire; group playing of a dice game that we have previously introduced in the teaching of HACCP; the discussion of the terms hazard and risk; and a self-assessment questionnaire to evaluate the teaching of hazard and risk. From 71 adult participants that completed this module, 40 participants (56% provided the most appropriate definition of hazard, 19 participants (27% provided the most appropriate definition of risk, 14 participants (20% provided the most appropriate definitions of both hazard and risk, and 23 participants (32% did not provide an appropriate definition for hazard or risk. Self-assessment data showed an improvement in the understanding of these terms (P < 0.05. Thirty participants (42% stated that the most valuable thing they learned with this interactive module was the difference between hazard and risk, and 40 participants (65% responded that they did not attend similar presentations in the past. The fact that less than one third of the participants answered properly to the definitions of hazard and risk at baseline is not surprising. However, these results highlight the need for the incorporation of modules to discuss these important food safety terms and include more active learning modules to teach food safety classes. This study suggests that active learning helps food personnel better understand important

  16. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  17. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  19. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  20. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Lappa, D.A.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Chuang, T.Y.; Johnson, J.J.; Campbell, R.D.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Maslenikov, O.R.; Tiong, L.W.; Ravindra, M.K.; Kincaid, R.H.; Sues, R.H.; Putcha, C.S.

    1993-11-01

    This report describes the methodology used and the results obtained from the application of a simplified seismic risk methodology to the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2. This study is part of the Level I analysis being performed by the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP). Using the RMIEP developed event and fault trees, the analysis resulted in a seismically induced core damage frequency point estimate of 6.OE-7/yr. This result, combined with the component importance analysis, indicated that system failures were dominated by random events. The dominant components included diesel generator failures (failure to swing, failure to start, failure to run after started), and condensate storage tank

  1. The RACER (risk analysis, communication, evaluation, and reduction) stakeholder environmental data transparency project for Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echohawk, John Chris; Dorries, Alison M.; Eberhart, Craig F.; Werdel, Nancy

    2008-01-01

    The RACER (Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction) project was created in 2003, as an effort to enhance the Los Alamos National Laboratory's ability to effectively communicate the data and processes used to evaluate environmental risks to the public and the environment. The RACER project staff consists of members of Risk Assessment Corporation, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). RACER staff worked closely with members of the community, tribal governments, and others within NMED and LANL to create innovative tools and a process that could provide information to regulators, LANL and the community about the sources of public health risk and ecological impact from LAN L operations. The RACER Data Analysis Tool (DA T) provides the public with webbased access to environmental measurement data collected in and around the LANL site. Its purpose is to provide a 'transparent' view to the public of all data collected by LANL and NMED regarding the LANL site. The DAT is available to the public at 'www.racernm.com'.

  2. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

    2011-11-01

    Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energy devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.

  3. Common cause evaluations in applied risk analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, T.; Ligon, D.; Stamatelatos, M.

    1983-04-01

    Qualitative and quantitative approaches were developed for the evaluation of common cause failures (CCFs) in nuclear power plants and were applied to the analysis of the auxiliary feedwater systems of several pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Key CCF variables were identified through a survey of experts in the field and a review of failure experience in operating PWRs. These variables were classified into categories of high, medium, and low defense against a CCF. Based on the results, a checklist was developed for analyzing CCFs of systems. Several known techniques for quantifying CCFs were also reviewed. The information provided valuable insights in the development of a new model for estimating CCF probabilities, which is an extension of and improvement over the Beta Factor method. As applied to the analysis of the PWR auxiliary feedwater systems, the method yielded much more realistic values than the original Beta Factor method for a one-out-of-three system

  4. Uncertainty Analysis and Overtopping Risk Evaluation of Maroon Dam withMonte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Vali Samani

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The greatest part of constructed dams belongs to embankment dams and there are many examples of their failures throughout history. About one-third of the world’s dam failures have been caused by flood overtopping, which indicates that flood overtopping is an important factor affecting reservoir projects’ safety. Moreover, because of a poor understanding of the randomness of floods, reservoir water levels during flood seasons are often lowered artificially in order to avoid overtopping and protect the lives and property of downstream residents. So, estimation of dam overtopping risk with regard to uncertainties is more important than achieving the dam’s safety. This study presents the procedure for risk evaluation of dam overtopping due to various uncertaintiess in inflows and reservoir initial condition. Materials and Methods: This study aims to present a practical approach and compare the different uncertainty analysis methods in the evaluation of dam overtopping risk due to flood. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation and Latin hypercube sampling methods were used to calculate the overtopping risk, evaluate the uncertainty, and calculate the highest water level during different flood events. To assess these methods from a practical point of view, the Maroon dam was chosen for the case study. Figure. 1 indicates the work procedure, including three parts: 1 Identification and evaluation of effective factors on flood routing and dam overtopping, 2 Data collection and analysis for reservoir routing and uncertainty analysis, 3 Uncertainty and risk analysis. Figure 1- Diagram of dam overtopping risk evaluation Results and Discussion: Figure 2 shows the results of the computed overtopping risks for the Maroon Dam without considering the wind effect, for the initial water level of 504 m as an example. As it is shown in Figure. 2, the trends of the risk curves computed by the different uncertainty analysis methods are similar

  5. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant, Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrell, W.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.; Daniel, S.L.

    1992-10-01

    This report is a description of the internal flood analysis performed on the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 2. A more detailed integration with the internal events analysis than in prior flood risk assessments was accomplished. The same system fault trees used for the internal events analysis were also used for the flood analysis, which included modeling of components down to the contact pair level. Subsidiary equations were created to map the effects of pipe failures. All component locations were traced and mapped into the fault trees. The effects of floods were then mapped directly onto the internal plant model and their relative importance was evaluated. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that most plant areas had a negligible contribution to the flood-induced core damage frequency. This was influenced strongly by the fact that the LaSalle plant was designed with a high level of concern about the effects of external events such as fire and flood and significant separation was maintained between systems in the original design. Detailed analysis of the remaining flood scenarios identified only two that contributed significantly to risk. The flood analysis resulted in a total (mean) core damage frequency of 3.23E-6 per year

  6. The application of risk analysis methods for the evaluation of the KBS-II encapsulation plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olshausen, K.D.

    1981-01-01

    Following a short description of the process of risk analysis and a definition of the objective, the encapsulation plant is described to the extent required. For certain systems, e.g. ventilation, the data was insufficient and some assumptions had to be made. A number of critical events were identified, and one of these, the release of radioactive substances through the ventilation system, was chosen for more detailed analysis. The plant was regarded as a system of barriers to which the substance had to be transported (TO), and through which the substance had to penetrate (THROUGH). The procedure is therefore called the TO/THROUGH method. Detailed fault trees with 'release via ventilation' as the critical event (top event) were drawn. As a numerical example two initiating events from the KBS-II report were treated; 1. degassing of previously damaged pins (2 per year); 2. fall of a fully loaded rack (1 per year). If either of these events coincides with failure of the ventilation system radioactive dust (aerosol) can be released to the atmosphere. The probability for this and the amount of radioactivity released are estimated. (JIW)

  7. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  8. Analysis and evaluation of the hydrogen risk in a thermonuclear fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudron, V.; Arnould, F.; Latge, C.; Laurent, A.

    2001-01-01

    After a recall of the principle of controlled thermonuclear fusion, the ITER reactor project is briefly described. The integrity of the reactor must be preserved in the case of a potential explosion of the hydrogen generated inside the reactor, in order to avoid any dispersion radioactive, chemical or toxic materials in the environment. The fundamental principles of safety developed to fulfill these objectives, in particular the defense-in-depth concept, are presented. The main potential source of hydrogen production is the oxidation of beryllium, which is used as protection material in the first wall of the torus, and the accidental presence of water, as reported in several scenarios. The confinement strategy is then described with the qualification of the role of the different barriers. Finally, the hydrogen explosion risk is analyzed and evaluated with respect to the sources, to the reference envelope scenarios and to the location of hydrogen inside the ITER reactor. It appears, at the engineering stage, that the vacuum toric vessel, the discharge reservoir and the exchanger compartments are the most worrying parts. (J.S.)

  9. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  10. Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

    2011-03-01

    The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  12. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

  13. Using Multi-criteria Evaluation and GIS for Flood Risk Analysis in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    New Win User

    were then mapped in the GIS to show the spatial disparities in risk. ..... Ayalew, L. & Yamagishi, H 2005, 'The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide .... Saaty, TL 1980, The analytic hierarchy process, Mcgraw-Hill, New York.

  14. Qualitative and Quantitave Risk Evaluation on the Basis of Military Aviation Event Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zieja Mariusz

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is understood as a process supporting decision making through systemic assessment of possible courses of action, identification of hazards and benefits, and indication of the best way to carry out aviation tasks.

  15. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, T.H.; Liang, K.S.; Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S.; Patelli, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10 −3 . • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10 −5 . - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability of the

  16. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, T.H. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Liang, K.S., E-mail: ksliang@alum.mit.edu [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Patelli, E. [Institute of Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Room 610, Brodie Tower, L69 3GQ (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10{sup −3}. • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10{sup −5}. - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability

  17. Hematopoietically-expressed homeobox gene three widely-evaluated polymorphisms and risk for diabetes: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaobo Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The hematopoietically-expressed homeobox (HHEX gene is identified as a promising candidate for type 2 diabetes by genome-wide association studies, triggering plenty of subsequent replications; however, the results are conflicting. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis of three widely-evaluated polymorphisms in HHEX gene and diabetes risk. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A random-effects model was adopted irrespective of heterogeneity. Data and study quality were assessed in duplicate. There were 49 studies (cases/controls: 57931/74658 for rs1111875, 18 studies (18227/30366 for rs5015480 and 26 studies (25725/30579 for rs7923837, respectively. Overall analyses indicated that rs1111875-C allele (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.2; P<0.0005, rs5015480-C allele (OR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06-1.26; P = 0.001 and rs7923837-G allele (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.12-1.24; P<0.0005 conferred significantly increased risk for type 2 diabetes, yet accompanying moderate to strong evidence of heterogeneity. Despite vast divergence in allele distributions, subgroup analyses by ethnicity showed comparable risk estimates between Asians and Caucasians for three examined polymorphisms. Moreover, results of studies with hospital-based controls deviated greatly from that of all qualified studies, especially for rs7923837-G allele carrying a doubled risk (OR = 1.37 versus 1.18. Furthermore, when only large studies (≥ 500 case-patients were considered, risk effects were identical to the overall estimates for three examined polymorphisms. The Begg's funnel plot and Egger's test indicated low probability of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide clarification to the significant association of rs1111875, rs5015480 and rs7923837 in HHEX gene with type 2 diabetes.

  18. Evaluation of 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Efficiency for Abandoned Tailings Pond Internal Structure Analysis and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortada, Unai; Martínez, Julián; Hidalgo, Mª Carmen; Rey, Javier

    2017-04-01

    Evaluation of 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Efficiency for Abandoned Tailings Pond Internal Structure Analysis and Risk Assessment Abandoned tailings ponds constitute a severe environmental problem in old Pb mining districts due to their high contents in metallic and semi-metallic elements. In most of the cases, there is a lack of information about the construction procedures and the previous environmental situation, which hinders the environmental risk evaluation. In these cases, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) could be an interesting technique to analyze the internal structure of the tailings ponds and detect vulnerable zones for leaching processes. Consequently, the GPR could help in the abandoned tailings ponds environmental risk assessment. In this study, a GPR 3D campaign was carried out with a 250 MHz frequency antenna in order to evaluate the efficiency of this technique in both the analysis of internal structures and the environmental risk assessment. Subsequently, 2D and 3D models were undertaken to represent graphically the obtained results. The studied tailings pond is located in the Guadiel river bank, a water course draining the mining district of Linares, Spain. The dam is 150 m length and 80 m width. The GPR 3D was done in a selected area near the central part of the pond. The analyzed grid was 25x50 m and the spacing of the slides was 1 m. The study revealed that the contact between the tailings and the substratum is located at 2.5 m. No intermediate layer was found, which means that the tailings pond was heightened on the fluvial terrace without any insulation system. Inside the first meter of the pond, a cross stratification was identified. The orientation of those laminations changed with the depth, which means that the stockpiling was performed from the different sides of the tailings pond. Furthermore, the direction of these stratifications is slightly concentric to the middle of the dam which could be associated with a central drainage system

  19. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  20. Evaluation of Blood Biomarkers Associated with Risk of Malnutrition in Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiying; Pereira, Suzette L; Luo, Menghua; Matheson, Eric M

    2017-08-03

    Malnutrition is a common yet under-recognized problem in hospitalized patients. The aim of this paper was to systematically review and evaluate malnutrition biomarkers among order adults. Eligible studies were identified through Cochrane, PubMed and the ProQuest Dialog. A meta-regression was performed on concentrations of biomarkers according to malnutrition risks classified by validated nutrition assessment tools. A total of 111 studies were included, representing 52,911 participants (55% female, 72 ± 17 years old) from various clinical settings (hospital, community, care homes). The estimated BMI ( p malnutrition risk by MNA were significantly lower than those without a risk. Similar results were observed for malnutrition identified by SGA and NRS-2002. A sensitivity analysis by including patients with acute illness showed that albumin and prealbumin concentrations were dramatically reduced, indicating that they must be carefully interpreted in acute care settings. This review showed that BMI, hemoglobin, and total cholesterol are useful biomarkers of malnutrition in older adults. The reference ranges and cut-offs may need to be updated to avoid underdiagnosis of malnutrition.

  1. Evaluation of Blood Biomarkers Associated with Risk of Malnutrition in Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiying Zhang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Malnutrition is a common yet under-recognized problem in hospitalized patients. The aim of this paper was to systematically review and evaluate malnutrition biomarkers among order adults. Eligible studies were identified through Cochrane, PubMed and the ProQuest Dialog. A meta-regression was performed on concentrations of biomarkers according to malnutrition risks classified by validated nutrition assessment tools. A total of 111 studies were included, representing 52,911 participants (55% female, 72 ± 17 years old from various clinical settings (hospital, community, care homes. The estimated BMI (p < 0.001 and concentrations of albumin (p < 0.001, hemoglobin (p < 0.001, total cholesterol (p < 0.001, prealbumin (p < 0.001 and total protein (p < 0.05 among subjects at high malnutrition risk by MNA were significantly lower than those without a risk. Similar results were observed for malnutrition identified by SGA and NRS-2002. A sensitivity analysis by including patients with acute illness showed that albumin and prealbumin concentrations were dramatically reduced, indicating that they must be carefully interpreted in acute care settings. This review showed that BMI, hemoglobin, and total cholesterol are useful biomarkers of malnutrition in older adults. The reference ranges and cut-offs may need to be updated to avoid underdiagnosis of malnutrition.

  2. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  3. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

  4. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  5. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  6. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  7. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  8. Evaluation of thyroid gland as an organ at risk after breast cancer radiotherapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvish, L; Ghorbani, M; Teshnizi, S Hosseini; Roozbeh, N; Seif, F; Bayatiani, M Reza; Knaup, C; Amraee, A

    2018-05-14

    Radiotherapy can often lead to thyroid dysfunction. Some studies demonstrated that treatment of breast cancer by RT can expose thyroid gland to high doses of radiation. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate consideration of thyroid gland as an organ at risk. In this systematic review and meta-analysis to select initial studies, a comprehensive search by two independent reviewers was performed. Electronical databases following: Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus, PubMed, Elsevier, Embase, ProQuest and Persian databases such as Iranmedex, Magiran, and SID were searched. All searches were restricted to English language between 1985 and 2017. A random effect meta-analysis is applied to estimate pooled effect size across initial studies. Funnel plot with Egger's test is used to assess potential publication bias. Totally, five studies (478 samples) were included in meta-analysis. The meta-analyses of result showed that thyroid gland is affected by radiotherapy significantly and the TSH increased after radiotherapy (z = 2.68, P = 0.007). The pooled estimate of difference mean for TSH was 0.90 (95% CI 0.24, 1.55). In studies among patients with breast cancer RT, hypothyroidism was reported more than other thyroid disorders. There was not showed possibility publication bias among studies (P > 0.05). This study demonstrated that thyroid gland is affected by radiotherapy significantly and the TSH increased after radiotherapy. Protecting thyroid gland during radiation and follow-up of patients with breast cancer RT are suggested for the assessment of thyroid gland dysfunction.

  9. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  10. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  11. Solution Monitoring Evaluated by Proliferation Risk Assessment and Fuzzy Optimization Analysis for Safeguards in a Reprocessing Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsutoshi Suzuki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Solution monitoring (SM has been used in a nuclear reprocessing plant as an additional measure to provide assurance that the plant is operated as declared. The inline volume and density monitoring equipment with dip tubes is important for safety and safeguards purposes and is a typical example of safeguards by design (SBD. Recently safety, safeguards, and security by design (3SBD are proposed to promote an efficient and effective generation of nuclear energy. In 3SBD, proliferation risk assessment has the potential to consider likelihood of the incidence and proliferation risk in safeguards. In this study, risk assessment methodologies for safeguards and security are discussed and several mathematical methods are presented to investigate risk notion applied to intentional acts of facility misuse in an uncertainty environment. Proliferation risk analysis with the Markov model, deterrence effect with the game model, and SBD with fuzzy optimization are shown in feasibility studies to investigate the potential application of the risk and uncertainty analyses in safeguards. It is demonstrated that the SM is an effective measurement system using risk-informed and cost-effective SBD, even though there are inherent difficulties related to the possibility of operator’s falsification.

  12. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  13. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  14. A multi-criteria risk analysis to evaluate impacts of forest management alternatives on forest health in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jactel, H.; Branco, M.; Duncker, P.; Gardiner, B.; Grodzki, W.; Langström, B.; Moreira, F.; Netherer, S.; Nicoll, B.; Orazio, C.; Piou, D.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Tojic, K.

    2012-01-01

    Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been

  15. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  16. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  17. Analysis of the perception of risk of radiotherapy services in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro using the risk evaluation system in radiotherapy (SEVRRA / FORUM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgos, Adam de Freitas

    2015-01-01

    In this work it was possible to analyze the perception of risks associated with existing processes in the high-dose rate brachytherapy and teletherapy using linear accelerators of radiotherapy services in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, through the combined use of two proposed methods: FMECA and risk matrix, using a general analysis and other more specific ones. The database software (SEVRRA) was used to identify possible existing processes in radiotherapy services (brachytherapy and teletherapy) and to classify the sequence of events in risk levels. The risk levels were analyzed at each stage and sub-stage, present in the treatment of patients undergoing high dose rate gynecological intracavitary brachytherapy and teletherapy treatments with the use of linear accelerators applying electron or photon beams in order to establish recommendations to the risks of highest priority for each case. The results show that although the procedure of high dose rate brachytherapy be automated and less susceptible to errors or failures, daily, one can still find considerable amounts of processes with worrying levels of risk perception. The processes that are more subject to radiological accident risks was associated with procedures, for of which the majority of the failures record and planning step of the treatment. The controls analyzed showed low efficiency, warning of the need to seek and implement new more efficient controls in routine brachytherapy for each participant service. About teletherapy procedure it was found that most of the failures were related to the registration and planning of treatment and equipment stages. The controls analyzed to teletherapy showed a poor result with a first type of analysis performed by suggesting a new type of more appropriate analysis. With a second type of analysis, these controls could be better analyzed and showed an order of importance according to a percentage of efficiency. Controls such as 'Double-check', &apos

  18. FTIR analysis and evaluation of carcinogenic and mutagenic risks of nitro-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in PM1.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Ismael Luís; Teixeira, Elba Calesso; Agudelo-Castañeda, Dayana Milena; Silva E Silva, Gabriel; Balzaretti, Naira; Braga, Marcel Ferreira; Oliveira, Luís Felipe Silva

    2016-01-15

    Nitro-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (NPAHs) represent a group of organic compounds of significant interest due to their presence in airborne particulates of urban centers, wide distribution in the environment, and mutagenic and carcinogenic properties. These compounds, associated with atmospheric particles of size PM1.0) using infrared spectrometry. Carcinogenic and mutagenic risks of the studied NPAHs associated with PM1.0 samples were also determined for two sampling sites: Canoas and Sapucaia do Sul. The results showed that NPAH standard spectra can effectively identify NPAHs in PM1.0 samples. The transmittance and emissivity sample spectra showed broader bands and lower relative intensity than the standard NPAH spectra. The carcinogenic risk and the total mutagenic risk were calculated using the toxic equivalent factors and mutagenic potency factors, respectively. Canoas showed the highest total carcinogenic risk, while Sapucaia do Sul had the highest mutagenic risk. The seasonal analysis suggested that in the study area the ambient air is more toxic during the cold periods. These findings might of significant importance for the decision and policy making authorities.

  19. Evaluation and identification of priority air pollutants for environmental management on the basis of risk analysis in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, Alexander; Strukova, Elena

    2008-01-01

    Since 1997, more than 30 health-risk analyses were conducted using Russian data sets. These studies demonstrated that air pollution is the most important environmental contributor toward morbidity and mortality risk in Russia, with 90% of the total human health risk coming from the criteria pollutants total suspended particulate (TSP), SO2, and NO(x). This article contributes to the ongoing discussion of the magnitude of this health issue in Russia by providing an estimate of both the mortality rate attributed to airborne pollutants and the associated economic damages. The 90% confidence interval of mortality is 46,000-132,000, and the associated economic damages are between 2.6 and 6.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). The largest source of uncertainty in mortality is the concentration-response parameter, accounting for 50-60% of the total variability in the estimate. The point estimate of 87,000 implies that mortality due to airborne pollutants is threefold higher than reported due to tuberculosis, twofold due to transportation accidents, and about the same as that from suicide and homicide combined. By 2002 there was enough evidence regarding potential health hazard and air pollution exposure in Russia to start environmental management reform. In 2004 Russia officially adopted guidelines for health risk analysis associated with air pollution. The next step is to use this health-risk assessment approach as a lead for sensible reforms of the emissions-permit system and environmental finance.

  20. A GIS-Based Procedure for Landslide Intensity Evaluation and Specific risk Analysis Supported by Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bianchini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of landslide specific risk, defined as the expected degree of loss due to landslides, requires the parameterization and the combination of a number of socio-economic and geological factors, which often needs the interaction of different skills and expertise (geologists, engineers, planners, administrators, etc.. The specific risk sub-components, i.e., hazard and vulnerability of elements at risk, can be determined with different levels of detail depending on the available auxiliary data and knowledge of the territory. These risk factors are subject to short-term variations and nowadays turn out to be easily mappable and evaluable through remotely sensed data and GIS (Geographic Information System tools. In this work, we propose a qualitative approach at municipal scale for producing a “specific risk” map, supported by recent satellite PSI (Persistent Scatterer Interferometry data derived from SENTINEL-1 C-band images in the spanning time 2014–2017, implemented in a GIS environment. In particular, PSI measurements are useful for the updating of a landslide inventory map of the area of interest and are exploited for the zonation map of the intensity of ground movements, needed for evaluating the vulnerability over the study area. Our procedure is presented throughout the application to the Volterra basin and the output map could be useful to support the local authorities with updated basic information required for environmental knowledge and planning at municipal level. Moreover, the proposed procedure is easily managed and repeatable in other case studies, as well as exploiting different SAR sensors in L- or X-band.

  1. Diesel engine exhaust and lung cancer risks - evaluation of the meta-analysis by Vermeulen et al. 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morfeld, Peter; Spallek, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Vermeulen et al. 2014 published a meta-regression analysis of three relevant epidemiological US studies (Steenland et al. 1998, Garshick et al. 2012, Silverman et al. 2012) that estimated the association between occupational diesel engine exhaust (DEE) exposure and lung cancer mortality. The DEE exposure was measured as cumulative exposure to estimated respirable elemental carbon in μg/m(3)-years. Vermeulen et al. 2014 found a statistically significant dose-response association and described elevated lung cancer risks even at very low exposures. We performed an extended re-analysis using different modelling approaches (fixed and random effects regression analyses, Greenland/Longnecker method) and explored the impact of varying input data (modified coefficients of Garshick et al. 2012, results from Crump et al. 2015 replacing Silverman et al. 2012, modified analysis of Moehner et al. 2013). We reproduced the individual and main meta-analytical results of Vermeulen et al. 2014. However, our analysis demonstrated a heterogeneity of the baseline relative risk levels between the three studies. This heterogeneity was reduced after the coefficients of Garshick et al. 2012 were modified while the dose coefficient dropped by an order of magnitude for this study and was far from being significant (P = 0.6). A (non-significant) threshold estimate for the cumulative DEE exposure was found at 150 μg/m(3)-years when extending the meta-analyses of the three studies by hockey-stick regression modelling (including the modified coefficients for Garshick et al. 2012). The data used by Vermeulen and colleagues led to the highest relative risk estimate across all sensitivity analyses performed. The lowest relative risk estimate was found after exclusion of the explorative study by Steenland et al. 1998 in a meta-regression analysis of Garshick et al. 2012 (modified), Silverman et al. 2012 (modified according to Crump et al. 2015) and Möhner et al. 2013. The meta-coefficient was

  2. Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

    1990-01-01

    FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG ampersand G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort

  3. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  4. Analysis and Risk Evaluation on the Case of Alteration, Revitalization and Conversion of a Historic Building in Gdańsk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzyl, Beata; Kristowski, Adam; Miszewska-Urbańska, Emilia

    2017-10-01

    Each investment plan, including the one concerning a building, is exposed to the consequences of various types of threats taking place. Therefore, in the case of some large-scale, atypical and complicated building ventures, some actions included in the procedure of risk management should be taken (identifications, analysis, measurements, control and supervision of the risk). This will allow for the risk to be eliminated or limited. While preparing a building venture, an investor does not possess full information about the course of events on each stage of investment completion. The identification of the above-mentioned unknowns, subjecting them to quantification and specifying the method of dealing with them, allows an investor to increase the effectiveness of the intended plan. The enterprise discussed in this article and analyzed in the context of risk, concerns alteration, revitalization and conversion for office purposes of two buildings located in Gdańsk at 1 and 2 Lastadia Street. These buildings are situated on the area of historical urban layout of Gdańsk, in the northern-eastern part of Stare Przedmieście District (Old Suburb), about 800 meters south from Dlugi Targ Street and 200 meters west from The Old Motława River. The investor is “Gdańskie Melioracje Ltd.”, a limited liability company, which belongs to the Council of Gdańsk. In order to increase the effectiveness of the intended investment venture, while organizing the investment process, the investor commissioned preparation of an analysis and risk evaluation connected with the above-mentioned intention. Based on an on-site visit, the opinions of experts, who have been involved in the process of the preparation of the investment, studies of the available monographies about the technical condition of the buildings at 1 and 2 Lastadia Street and their own experiences, the authors identified 54 types of relevant risks, which have been systematized into 10 subject groups (among others

  5. Evaluating correlates of adolescent physical activity duration towards National Health Objectives: analysis of the Colorado Youth Risk Behavioral Survey, 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Diedhiou, Abdoulaye; Agbanu, Harry L K; Toma-Drane, Mariana; Dhawan, Ashish

    2011-06-01

    While numerous studies have examined the relationships among correlates of physical activity (PA), less attention has been given to identifying the correlates of low PA duration. The main objective of the current study was to examine correlates of low PA duration, team sports participation and smoking behaviors among adolescents. Data from the 2005 Colorado Youth Behavioral Risk Survey were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models. We evaluated associations between two measures of low PA duration, assessed as per Healthy People 2010 (HP2010) objectives and 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines (PAG) for Americans, and smoking behaviors, participation in the physical education (PE) and team sports, controlling for age, gender and other behavioral characteristics. Forty percent and 70%, respectively, of adolescents did not meet the 2008 PAG and HP2010 objectives. After adjustment, smoking remained associated with failure to meet the 2008 PAG. However, no significant relationship was found with low PA duration as per the HP2010 objectives. The risk of low PA was higher among girls for both outcome measures. Likewise, adolescents who reported no participation in team sports presented a 7-fold higher risk of low PA as per the 2008 PAG and 51% higher risk of low PA as per the HP2010 objectives compared with the group with team sports participation. Regular participation in school PE and team sports may represent an important avenue for increasing PA duration and reducing smoking behaviors among adolescents.

  6. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  7. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2018-06-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  8. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  10. Incidence of upper tract abnormalities in patients with neurovesical dysfunction secondary to multiple sclerosis: analysis of risk factors at initial urologic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemack, Gary E; Hawker, Kathleen; Frohman, Elliot

    2005-05-01

    To determine the incidence of upper tract abnormalities on renal ultrasonography in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) referred for urologic evaluation, as well as to identify any risk factors present on the basis of the historical information and urodynamic findings. Data were derived from all patients with MS referred to the neurourology clinic during a 4-year period. The database was specifically queried for patients found to have upper tract abnormalities on screening renal ultrasonography. Demographic parameters, as well as laboratory values (creatinine) and urodynamic results, were evaluated for risk factors associated with abnormal upper tract findings. Of the 113 patients referred and evaluated, 66 completed both urodynamic testing and renal ultrasonography. Eleven (16.7%) had abnormal ultrasound findings, with focal caliectasis the most common finding. No demographic parameter (age, sex, time since MS diagnosis, MS pattern) was associated with a greater likelihood of abnormal renal ultrasonography on univariate analysis. Neither serum creatinine nor any urodynamic finding (including the presence of dyssynergia or the threshold and amplitude of detrusor overactivity) was associated with abnormal renal ultrasound findings. No patients in our series had any indication of obstructive uropathy more severe than mild hydronephrosis. Of the 16.7% of patients with any abnormal findings, most were noted to have minor caliectasis, likely to be of little clinical significance. Although no factors identifying patients at risk of renal abnormalities at presentation were found, ongoing evaluation of patients with baseline findings will serve to identify those at risk of progression.

  11. Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.; Spartalis, S.H.

    2013-01-01

    The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources

  12. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  13. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  14. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, A.C. Jr.; Eide, S.A.; LaChance, J.C.; Whitehead, D.W.

    1992-10-01

    This volume presents the results of the initiating event and accident sequence delineation analyses of the LaSalle Unit II nuclear power plant performed as part of the Level III PRA being performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The initiating event identification included a thorough review of extant data and a detailed plant specific search for special initiators. For the LaSalle analysis, the following initiating events were defined: eight general transients, ten special initiators, four LOCAs inside containment, one LOCA outside containment, and two interfacing LOCAs. Three accident sequence event trees were constructed: LOCA, transient, and ATWS. These trees were general in nature so that a tree represented all initiators of a particular type (i.e., the LOCA tree was constructed for evaluating small, medium, and large LOCAs simultaneously). The effects of the specific initiators on the systems and the different success criteria were handled by including the initiating events directly in the system fault trees. The accident sequence event trees were extended to include the evaluation of containment vulnerable sequences. These internal event accident sequence event trees were also used for the evaluation of the seismic, fire, and flood analyses

  15. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  16. TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lah, J [Myongji Hospital, Goyang-si (Korea, Republic of); Manger, R; Kim, G [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinary team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.

  17. TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lah, J; Manger, R; Kim, G

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinary team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.

  18. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  19. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  20. Analysis, Evaluation and Measures to Reduce Environmental Risk within Watershed Areas of the Eastern Zauralye District Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasskasova, N. S.; Bobylev, A. V.; Malaev, A. V.

    2017-11-01

    The authors have performed an analysis for the use of watershed areas of the lakes of the Eastern Zauralye district (the territory to the east of Ural) for national economic purposes. The analysis gave a possibility to assess the impact of watersheds depending on the applied technologies on the dump of various runoff into the reservoir waters. The watershed areas of all lakes have been found to be actively used as pastures, farmland and recreational resources. Some of the main sources of solid and liquid industrial waste are cattle farms and agricultural land using outdated equipment and technologies. The study of 26 km of the watershed line areas showed that pollutants (household garbage, fuels and lubricants) and organic substances (phosphorus and nitrogen) got into the waters of the reservoirs. The maximum runoff of solid and liquid waste into the waters of the lakes happens in summer which leads to increased concentrations of organic substances, an increase in productivity of alga and higher aquatic flora determining the degree of eutrophication and trophy in the reservoirs. The average annual trophic status of TSI lakes of the Eastern Zauralye district is 56 which corresponds to the typical phase of eutrophy. The reduced transparency of lakes is also the evidence of an increase in biological productivity of reservoirs, their eutrophication and, as a result, the water quality deterioration. The intensive eutrophication of reservoirs, in its turn, most significantly affects the concentration of the ammonium form of nitrogen, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, increase in pH and deterioration of oxygen condition. The authors have developed various activities to reduce a technogenic risk in the watershed areas of the lakes in the Eastern Zauralye district which can be applied to other areas using the analogy method.

  1. Analysis in usability evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Følstad, Asbjørn; Lai-Chong Law, Effie; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2010-01-01

    While the planning and implementation of usability evaluations are well described in the literature, the analysis of the evaluation data is not. We present interviews with 11 usability professionals on how they conduct analysis, describing the resources, collaboration, creation of recommendations......, and prioritization involved. The interviews indicate a lack of structure in the analysis process and suggest activities, such as generating recommendations, that are unsupported by existing methods. We discuss how to better support analysis, and propose four themes for future research on analysis in usability...

  2. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  4. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  5. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  6. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  7. Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

  8. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  9. Evaluation of the nutritional status of older hospitalised geriatric patients: a comparative analysis of a Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) version and the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christner, S; Ritt, M; Volkert, D; Wirth, R; Sieber, C C; Gaßmann, K-G

    2016-12-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate a short-form (MNA-SF) version of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), in which some of the items were operationalised, based on scores from tools used for a comprehensive geriatric assessment, as a method for analysing the nutritional status of hospitalised geriatric patients. We compared this MNA-SF version with the corresponding MNA long-form (MNA-LF) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) in terms of completion rate, prevalence and agreement regarding malnutrition and/or the risk of this. In total, 201 patients aged ≥65 years who were hospitalised in geriatric wards were included in this analysis. The MNA-SF, MNA-LF and NRS 2002 were completed in 98.0%, 95.5% and 99.5% of patients (P = 0.06), respectively. The MNA-SF, MNA-LF and NRS 2002 categorised 93.4%, 91.1% and 66.0% of patients as being malnourished or at risk of being malnourished (P evaluating the nutritional status of hospitalised geriatric patients. The NRS 2002 part 1 showed limited value as a prescreening aid in relation to the NRS 2002 part 2 in the same group of patients. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  10. Preliminary Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System: Task 2.1.1: Evaluating Effects of Stressors – Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report: Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-15

    Possible environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term effects. An understanding of risk associated with likely interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help reduce the level of uncertainty and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases - a tidal project in Puget Sound using Open Hydro turbines, a wave project off the coast of Oregon using Ocean Power Technologies point attenuator buoys, and a riverine current project in the Mississippi River using Free Flow turbines. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in all three cases were the effects of the dynamic physical presence of the device (e.g., strike), accidents, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the four highest tiers of risk were dominated by marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) and birds (diving and non-diving); only the riverine case (Free Flow) included different receptors in the third tier (fish) and the fourth tier (benthic invertebrates). Although this screening analysis provides a preliminary analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis, especially of risk associated with chemical toxicity and accidents such as oil spills or lost gear, will be necessary to further understand high-priority risks. Subject matter expert review of this process and results is required and is

  11. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  12. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  13. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  14. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  15. Evaluating Style Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Roon, F.A.; Nijman, T.E.; Ter Horst, J.R.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate applications of (return based) style analysis.The portfolio and positivity constraints imposed by style analysis are useful in constructing mimicking portfolios without short positions.Such mimicking portfolios can be used, e.g., to construct efficient portfolios of mutual

  16. Evaluating Style Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.A. de Roon (Frans); T.E. Nijman (Theo); B.J.M. Werker

    2000-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we evaluate applications of (return based) style analysis. The portfolio and positivity constraints imposed by style analysis are useful in constructing mimicking portfolios without short positions. Such mimicking portfolios can be used e.g. to construct efficient

  17. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  18. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  19. Implementation of a computational system at the Center for Nuclear Technology Development, for systematization the application of the FMEA - Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, for identification of dangerous and developed risks evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa, Danyel Pontelo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de

    2009-01-01

    The regulatory bodies request risks evaluations for nuclear and radioactive licensing purposes. In Brazil those evaluations are contained by the safety analysis reports requested by the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN), and risk analysis studies requested by the environment organisms. A risk evaluation includes the identification of the risks and the accident sequence which can occur, and the estimation of the frequency and his undesirable effects on the industrial installations, the public, and the environment. The identification and the risk analysis are particularly important for the implementation of a health, environment and safety integrated management according to the regulation instruments ISO 14001, BS 8800 and OHSAS 18001. The utilization of the risk identification techniques and the risk analysis is performed at the non nuclear industry, in a non standard form by the various sectors of an enterprise, diminishing the effectiveness of the recommended actions based on risk indexes. However, for the nuclear licensing, the CNEN request through their regulatory instruments and standard formats, that the risks, the failure mechanisms and detection be identified, which can allow the preventive and mitigate actions. This paper proposes the utilization of the FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) technique in the licensing process. It was implemented a software through the Excel program, using the Visual Basic for Applications program which allows the automation and the standardization of FMEA studies as well

  20. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  1. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  2. Index analysis and human health risk model application for evaluating ambient air-heavy metal contamination in Chemical Valley Sarnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olawoyin, Richard; Schweitzer, Linda; Zhang, Kuangyuan; Okareh, Oladapo; Slates, Kevin

    2018-02-01

    The impacts of air emissions as a consequence of industrial activities around communities of human habitation have been extensively reported. This study is the first to assess potential adverse human health effects in the Chemical Valley Sarnia (CVS) area, around the St. Clair River, using health risk models, ecological and pollution indices. Large quantities of particulate matters (PM) are generated from anthropogenic activities, which contain several heavy metals in trace quantities with potentially adverse effects to humans and environmental health. The distribution, and human health impact assessment of trace element concentrations in PM fractions were examined. Elemental concentrations of As, Cd, Cr (VI), Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, Ni, Zn were determined in the PM size-segregated samples collected from the CVS area between 2014 and 2017. The results showed relatively high concentration of PM air quality guidelines. Pb concentration (143.03 ± 46.87ηg/m 3 ) was 3.6 times higher than the air quality standards of NAAQS. Cr (VI) showed moderate to considerable contamination ( C f =4) in the CVS while Cr (VI), Pb, and Ni had enrichment factor E f < 3 (minimal), signifying contributions from anthropogenic activities. Pollution load index (P Li ) value observed was 1.4 indicating human health risk from the PM, especially for the children in the area. The deposition fluxes (DΦ) showed that PM-bound metals could potentially bypass the head airways and cause damages to the tracheobronchial tree, increasing the human health risks of nephroblastomasis development. The main route of entry for the heavy metal bound PM in humans were observed as through ingestion and inhalation. The highest total excess cancer risks observed for children (6.7×10 -4 ) and adult (1.0×10 -4 ) indicating potential cancer effects. The Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) increased from Pb < Ni < Cd < Cr (VI) < As. Overall, children are more likely to develop carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health

  3. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.; Zdanski, Laura C.; Gill, Gary A.; Ward, Jeffrey A.

    2011-09-01

    Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases. During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening

  4. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  5. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  6. Geomatic 3d Modeling of a Statue (also) for Structural Analysis and Risk Evaluation: the Example of San Giovannino Martelli in Florence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spangher, A.; Visintini, D.; Tucci, G.; Bonora, V.

    2017-05-01

    This work has been developed among the researches of a PhD thesis in Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture of the University of Udine in cooperation with the GECO Laboratory of the University of Florence. It focuses on the interaction between Geomatics and Structural Analysis, both applied to cultural heritage, and expressly to artefacts and structures in stone materials, like the case study of this paper, the marble statue called "San Giovannino Martelli" (Saint John the Baptist) conserved in Florence. At the beginning, some interesting examples of surveying and structural analyses on statues are reported, in order to remind the complementary tasks and requirements of geomatics and structural analysis. Current laser scanning systems can accurately survey the geometry of a statue or any cultural heritage artefact, essential to understand their structural behaviour and resilience capability. Afterwards, following the few Italian regulations in this field, the possible risks of museum goods are described: topics of this part are more familiar for structural engineers as object classification, seismic reactions, damage mechanisms, possible movements (adherent, slipping and oscillation), dynamic domains, anyway necessary steps to evaluate the risk and so to define eventual interventions. The artistic description of the statue, its debated attribution to Donatello or/and to Desiderio da Settignano and its history is later recalled, remembering that the surveying has been done for the idea to 3D print a replica and to place it in the original place. Having used a close range laser scanner, the obtained 3D model has an impressive geometrical Level of Detail (LoD), whose geometric features are explained in the paper, underlying that such extremely detailed mesh is directly given as output from the laser scanner software. The model simplifications by four decimation are therefore explained and also changes to geometry, like shifts on centre of the mass or

  7. GEOMATIC 3D MODELING OF A STATUE (ALSO FOR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS AND RISK EVALUATION: THE EXAMPLE OF SAN GIOVANNINO MARTELLI IN FLORENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Spangher

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This work has been developed among the researches of a PhD thesis in Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture of the University of Udine in cooperation with the GECO Laboratory of the University of Florence. It focuses on the interaction between Geomatics and Structural Analysis, both applied to cultural heritage, and expressly to artefacts and structures in stone materials, like the case study of this paper, the marble statue called “San Giovannino Martelli” (Saint John the Baptist conserved in Florence. At the beginning, some interesting examples of surveying and structural analyses on statues are reported, in order to remind the complementary tasks and requirements of geomatics and structural analysis. Current laser scanning systems can accurately survey the geometry of a statue or any cultural heritage artefact, essential to understand their structural behaviour and resilience capability. Afterwards, following the few Italian regulations in this field, the possible risks of museum goods are described: topics of this part are more familiar for structural engineers as object classification, seismic reactions, damage mechanisms, possible movements (adherent, slipping and oscillation, dynamic domains, anyway necessary steps to evaluate the risk and so to define eventual interventions. The artistic description of the statue, its debated attribution to Donatello or/and to Desiderio da Settignano and its history is later recalled, remembering that the surveying has been done for the idea to 3D print a replica and to place it in the original place. Having used a close range laser scanner, the obtained 3D model has an impressive geometrical Level of Detail (LoD, whose geometric features are explained in the paper, underlying that such extremely detailed mesh is directly given as output from the laser scanner software. The model simplifications by four decimation are therefore explained and also changes to geometry, like shifts on

  8. A retrospective analysis of cases with neuroleptic malignant syndrome and an evaluation of risk factors for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Aynur; Cicek, Mustafa; Gonenc Cekic, Ozgen; Gunaydin, Mucahit; Aykut, Demet Saglam; Tatli, Ozgur; Karaca, Yunus; Arici, Mualla Aylin

    2017-12-01

    Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is a neurological emergency rarely encountered in clinical practice but with a high mortality rate. Cases associated with atypical antipsychotic use or termination of dopamine agonists have been seen in recent years. The purpose of this study was to assess the presence of risk factors for mortality by investigating all clinical and laboratory characteristics of cases with NMS. This descriptive, cross-sectional study retrospectively investigated all clinical and laboratory characteristics by scanning the ICD-10 codes of patients presenting to the XXXX Faculty of Medicine Emergency Department and diagnosed with NMS between 2006 and 2016. Patients were divided into surviving and non-surviving groups, and the data elicited were subjected to statistical comparisons. The mean age of the 18 patients diagnosed with NMS was 46.9 ± 4.8 years, and 50% were women. In addition to antipsychotics among the drugs leading to NMS, the syndrome also developed as a result of levodopa withdrawal in three patients and metoclopramide use in one patient. Statistically significant differences were determined between the surviving and non-surviving patients in terms of blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatine kinase (CK) and mean platelet volume (MPV) values (p ≤ 0.05). In this study the most common agent that cause NMS was atypical antipsychotics. Also advanced age, increased blood pressure and serum CK, BUN and MPV values were identified as potential risk factors for mortality in NMS.

  9. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  10. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  11. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  12. A retrospective analysis of cases with neuroleptic malignant syndrome and an evaluation of risk factors for mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aynur Sahin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS is a neurological emergency rarely encountered in clinical practice but with a high mortality rate. Cases associated with atypical antipsychotic use or termination of dopamine agonists have been seen in recent years. The purpose of this study was to assess the presence of risk factors for mortality by investigating all clinical and laboratory characteristics of cases with NMS. Material and methods: This descriptive, cross-sectional study retrospectively investigated all clinical and laboratory characteristics by scanning the ICD-10 codes of patients presenting to the XXXX Faculty of Medicine Emergency Department and diagnosed with NMS between 2006 and 2016. Patients were divided into surviving and non-surviving groups, and the data elicited were subjected to statistical comparisons. Results: The mean age of the 18 patients diagnosed with NMS was 46.9 ± 4.8 years, and 50% were women. In addition to antipsychotics among the drugs leading to NMS, the syndrome also developed as a result of levodopa withdrawal in three patients and metoclopramide use in one patient. Statistically significant differences were determined between the surviving and non-surviving patients in terms of blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen (BUN, creatine kinase (CK and mean platelet volume (MPV values (p ≤ 0.05. Conclusion: In this study the most common agent that cause NMS was atypical antipsychotics. Also advanced age, increased blood pressure and serum CK, BUN and MPV values were identified as potential risk factors for mortality in NMS.

  13. Analysis of Biota to Evaluate the Risks Associated with Chemical Warfare Materiel Present in Sea-Disposed Military Munitions to Human Health and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. W.; Bissonnette, M. C.; Edwards, M.; Shjegstad, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    Thousands of 100-lb M47A series bombs containing sulfur mustard were disposed in the ocean following World War II yet few studies have been conducted at sites in excess of 250 m, the depth where most discarded military munitions (DMM) were disposed. The Hawai`i Undersea Military Munitions Assessment (HUMMA) project was conducted to evaluate the risk from chemical warfare materiel (CWM) in DMM to human health, measuring ecological differences between the disposal area and nearby but otherwise similar areas, and evaluating the most efficient platforms for surveying DMM sea-disposal sites located at depths between 400-650 m. During the 2014 HUMMA Sampling Survey, the Jason 2 remotely operated vehicle was used to collect data. Shrimp were collected and analyzed to assess the potential for bioaccumulation of CWM, energetics and metals from munitions. No CWM was detected in H. ensifer tissue samples, indicating bioaccumulation is not occurring. Low levels of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, 4-amino-2,6-­dinitrotoluene, 1,3,5-trinitrobenzene, nitrobenzene, arsenic, copper, and lead were detected and the concentrations were not significantly different at DMM and control sites. No visible deformities, eroded fins, lesions, or tumors were observed on the shrimp living in the vicinity of M47A bombs. Given these results and under current and potential future uses of the HUMMA study area, health risks to likely receptors are within EPA acceptable levels. Photographic data and benthic infauna analysis were used to study benthic organisms that lived on or near munitions. There was no statistically distinguishable difference between organism distributions in dense and sparse munitions fields. Conventional munitions were found to have the greatest number of benthic infauna individuals, with control sites generally having the least number of individuals. This is consistent with the benthic macro-fauna analysis, which shows that munitions provide habitat.

  14. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  15. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  16. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  17. Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

    2014-12-01

    A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous

  18. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  19. Farmer knowledge and a priori risk analysis: pre-release evaluation of genetically modified Roundup Ready wheat across the Canadian prairies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauro, Ian J; McLachlan, Stéphane M; Van Acker, Rene C

    2009-09-01

    corporations, previous experience with GM canola, and a strong belief in the importance of community and environment. Farmers were critical of expert-based risk assessment, particularly RRW field trials, and believed that their LK was valuable for assessing agbiotechnology as a whole. Over 90% of canola production across the Canadian prairies makes use of herbicide-tolerant (HT) varieties. Yet, respondents were generally uniform in their criticism of RRW, regardless whether they were HT users, non-HT-users, conservation tillage or organic in approach. They had a sophisticated understanding of how GM trait confinement was intrinsically tied to grain system segregation and, ultimately, market accessibility, and were concerned that gene flow in RRW would not be contained. Organic farmers were particularly critical of RRW, in large part because certification standards prohibit the presence of GM traits. Farmers practicing conservation tillage were also at relatively great risk, in part because their dependence on glyphosate to control weeds increases the likelihood that RRW volunteer would become more difficult and costly to control. This research is the first of its kind to include farmer knowledge in the a priori risk analysis of GM crops and, arguably, given its prairie-wide scope, is the largest scale, independent-farmer-focused study on GM crops ever conducted. The surprising uniformity in attitudes between users and non-users of GM technology and among organic, conventional, conservation tillage and GM using farmers speaks to the ability of farmers to discriminate among HT varieties. Our results clearly show that prairie farmers recognize that the risks associated with RRW commercialization outweigh any benefits. Farmer knowledge systems are holistic in nature, incorporating socioeconomic, cultural, political, and agroecological factors that all can contribute meaningfully to the pre-release evaluation of GM crops. The inclusion of farmers and other stakeholders in risk

  20. 房地产项目融资风险评价分析%Analysis of Real Estate Project Financing Risk Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王军; 杨光

    2016-01-01

    项目融资作为一种重要的国际金融工具应用于商业房地产领域,是一种全新的探索.随着我国经济体质改革的不断发展和深入,我国房地产行业不断发展,已经逐渐成为我国经济发展的重要支柱之一,也越来越受到国内外的关注.目前,我国房地产项目融资方式众多,但仍然存在许多融资风险问题.这些风险可能最后导致整个项目的失败,给我国经济带来很大损失.房地产项目融资风险大且复杂,但是可以通过对房地产项目融资风险进行总结,并建立模糊评价模型进行风险分析.运用模糊综合评价方法对商业房地产项目融资风险进行评价是一个多目标、多层次、结构复杂和因素众多的大系统,能够对房地产项目融资风险做一个很好的诠释和解析,作为房地产项目选择融资方案的重要依据,可为房地产项目融资减少不必要的损失.%The project financing was a kind of important international financial tools,used in commercial real estate field,and was a kind of brand-new exploration.With the continuous development and deepening of economic restructuring,the develop-ment of China's real estate industry gradually became an important pillar of China's economic development,and was paid close attention by domestic and foreign personnel.Currently,there were many financing ways of the real estate project,but there were still many problems in financing risks which finally led to the entire project failure and brought great loss to China's economy.The real estate project financing risks were large and complex,but the fuzzy evaluation model could be established to analyze the risks through the summary on the financing risk of real estate project.The use of It was a large system of a multi-objective,multi-level,complex structure and factors to use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the financing risk of commercial real estate project,and the system could do a very

  1. Evaluation of pre-existing antibody presence as a risk factor for posttreatment anti-drug antibody induction: analysis of human clinical study data for multiple biotherapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Li; Rup, Bonita

    2013-07-01

    Biotherapeutic-reactive antibodies in treatment-naïve subjects (i.e., pre-existing antibodies) have been commonly detected during clinical immunogenicity assessments; however information on pre-existing antibody prevalence, physiological effects, and impact on posttreatment anti-drug antibody (ADA) induction remains limited. In this analysis, pre-existing antibody prevalence and impact on posttreatment ADA induction were determined using ADA data from 12 biotherapeutics analyzed in 32 clinical studies. Approximately half (58%) of the biotherapeutics were associated with some level of pre-existing antibodies and 67% of those were associated with posttreatment ADA induction. Across all studies, 5.6% of study subjects demonstrated presence of pre-existing antibodies, among which, 17% of the individual subjects had posttreatment increases in their ADA titers while 16% had decreased titers and 67% had no change in titers. However, in studies conducted in the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) population, 14.8% of RA patients were associated with pre-existing antibodies and 30% of those had posttreatment titer increases. The results suggest that in most study subjects, pre-existing antibodies pose a low risk for posttreatment ADA induction. That said, the high risk of induction implicated for RA patients, primarily observed in treatments evaluating novel antibody-based constructs, indicates that further understanding of the contribution of product and disease-specific factors is needed. Cross-industry efforts to collect and analyze a larger data set would enhance understanding of the prevalence, nature, and physiological consequences of pre-existing antibodies, better inform the immunogenicity risk profiles of products associated with these antibodies and lead to better fit-for-purpose immunogenicity management and mitigation strategies.

  2. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  3. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  4. Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

    2015-03-01

    Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

  5. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  6. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  7. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  9. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  10. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  11. A multi-analysis approach for space-time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: the example of FMD in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, B; Ivorra, B; Fernández-Carrión, E; Perez, A M; Medel-Herrero, A; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, F; Gortázar, C; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2014-04-01

    This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of livestock diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI-II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV) connects outputs from mI-III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I-IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 37 (1, 1164), 2152 (1, 13, 250), 63 days (0, 442), and US$ 1.2 million (1072, 9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  13. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  14. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  15. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  16. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  17. Multilevel Analysis of Multiple-Baseline Data Evaluating Precision Teaching as an Intervention for Improving Fluency in Foundational Reading Skills for at Risk Readers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosnan, Julie; Moeyaert, Mariola; Brooks Newsome, Kendra; Healy, Olive; Heyvaert, Mieke; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

    2018-01-01

    In this article, multiple-baseline across participants designs were used to evaluate the impact of a precision teaching (PT) program, within a Tier 2 Response to Intervention framework, targeting fluency in foundational reading skills with at risk kindergarten readers. Thirteen multiple-baseline design experiments that included participation from…

  18. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  19. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  20. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  1. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  2. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  3. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  4. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  5. Optimizing Caffeine Use and Risk of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Application of Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakvasa, Mitali Atul; Saroha, Vivek; Patel, Ravi Mangal

    2018-06-01

    Caffeine reduces the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Optimizing caffeine use could increase therapeutic benefit. We performed a systematic-review and random-effects meta-analysis of studies comparing different timing of initiation and dose of caffeine on the risk of BPD. Earlier initiation, compared to later, was associated with a decreased risk of BPD (5 observational studies; n = 63,049, adjusted OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.64-0.75, GRADE: low quality). High-dose caffeine, compared to standard-dose, was associated with a decreased risk of BPD (3 randomized trials, n = 432, OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43-0.97; GRADE: low quality). Higher quality evidence is needed to guide optimal caffeine use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  7. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  8. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  9. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  10. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  11. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  12. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  13. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  14. The accident of stereotaxic radiosurgery at the University hospital center of Toulouse. Expert report n.2. Dosimetric and clinical evaluation. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The regional center of stereotaxic radiosurgery (C.R.R.S.) of the University hospital center (C.H.U.) of Toulouse is equipped since april 2006 with a Novalis accelerator (Brainlab) devoted to radiosurgery and intra skull stereotaxic radiotherapy.In april 2007, during an intercomparison of dosimetry files coming from various sites, the Brainlab society detects an anomaly. The analysis made by the society concludes to the use of an unsuited detector for the measurement of a dosimetry parameter during the accelerator initial calibration. Following this error, 145 patients (on 172 patients treated since the center opening) suffer of an overdose whom importance is variable. On the 26. june 2007 the Authority of nuclear safety (Asn) requires an expertise on the following points: checking of the experimental protocols of micro-beams calibration before and after correction of the dysfunction; analysis at the theoretical level of the neurological complications risk at long term for the exposed patients. The second point of this request is the subject of this report. It gives the synthesis of the whole of information, at the clinical and dosimetric level and outlines successively: the expertise methodology; the cohort of patients treated at the C.R.R.S.; the parameters of the risk analysis of neurological complications; the different risk analysis according the pathologies treated at the C.R.R.S.; the recommendations. (N.C.)

  15. Evaluating the effect of HIV prevention strategies on uptake of HIV counselling and testing among male most-at-risk-populations in Nigeria; a cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebajo, Sylvia; Eluwa, George; Njab, Jean; Oginni, Ayo; Ukwuije, Francis; Ahonsi, Babatunde; Lorenc, Theo

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of three strategies in increasing uptake of HIV counselling and testing (HCT) among male most-at-risk-population (M-MARPs) using programmatic data. HIV prevention strategies were evaluated in a cross-sectional analysis. Three HCT strategies were implemented between July 2009 and July 2012 among men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in four states in Nigeria. The first strategy (S1), involved key opinion leaders (KOLs) who referred M-MARPs to health facilities for HCT. The second strategy (S2) involved KOLs referring M-MARPs to nearby mobile HCT teams while the third (S3) involved mobile M-MARPs peers conducting the HCT. χ(2) statistics were used to test for differences in the distribution of categorical variables across groups while logistic regression was used to measure the effect of the different strategies while controlling for confounding factors. A total of 1988, 14 726 and 14 895 M-MARPs were offered HCT through S1, S2 and S3 strategies, respectively. Overall, S3 (13%) identified the highest proportion of HIV-positive M-MARPs compared with S1 (9%) and S2 (3%), p≤0.001. Also S3 (13%) identified the highest proportion of new HIV diagnosis compared with S1 (8%) and S2 (3%), respectively, p≤0.001. When controlled for age, marital status and occupation, MSM reached via S3 were 9 times (AOR: 9.21; 95% CI 5.57 to 15.23) more likely to uptake HCT when compared with S1 while PWIDs were 21 times (AOR: 20.90; 95% CI 17.33 to 25.21) more likely to uptake to HCT compared with those reached via S1. Peer-led HCT delivered by S3 had the highest impact on the total number of M-MARPs reached and in identifying HIV-positive M-MARPs and new testers. Training M-MARPs peers to provide HCT is a high impact approach in delivering HCT to M-MARPs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  17. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  18. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  19. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  20. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  1. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  2. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Missing in space: an evaluation of imputation methods for missing data in spatial analysis of risk factors for type II diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jannah; White, Nicole; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2014-11-20

    Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.

  4. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  5. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  6. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  7. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  8. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  9. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  11. Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

    1996-02-15

    To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

  12. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  13. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  14. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  15. The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

    2018-03-01

    For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

  16. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  17. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  18. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  19. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  20. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  1. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  2. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  3. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  4. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  5. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  6. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Re-Evaluating the Possible Increased Risk of HIV Acquisition With Progestin-Only Injectables Versus Maternal Mortality and Life Expectancy in Africa: A Decision Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Maria Isabel; Gaffield, Mary E; Han, Leo; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-12-28

    The association between increased risk of HIV acquisition and use of progestin-only injectables (POIs) is controversial. We sought to compare the competing risks of maternal mortality and HIV acquisition with use of POIs using updated data on this association and considering an expanded number of African countries. We designed a decision-analytic model to compare the benefits and risks of POIs on the competing risks of maternal mortality and HIV acquisition on life expectancy for women in 9 African countries. For the purposes of this analysis, we assumed that POIs were associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition (hazards ratio of 1.4). Our primary outcome was life-years and the population was women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in these countries, who did not have HIV infection and were not currently planning a pregnancy. Probabilities for each variable included in the model, such as HIV incidence, access to antiretroviral therapy, and contraceptive prevalence, were obtained from the literature. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to check model assumptions and explore how uncertainty in estimates would affect the model results. In all countries, discontinuation of POIs without replacement with an equally effective contraceptive method would result in decreased life expectancy due to a significant increase in maternal deaths. While the removal of POIs from the market would result in the prevention of some new cases of HIV, the life-years gained from this are mitigated due to the marked increase in neonatal HIV cases and maternal mortality with associated life-years lost. In all countries, except South Africa, typical-use contraceptive failure rates with POIs would need to exceed 39%, and more than half of women currently using POIs would have to switch to another effective method, for the removal of POIs to demonstrate an increase in total life-years. Women living in sub-Saharan Africa cope with both high rates of HIV

  11. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  12. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  13. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  14. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  15. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  16. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  17. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  18. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  19. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  1. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  2. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  3. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Interactions between soil consumption and archaeological heritage: spatial analysis for hydrogeological risk evaluation and urban sprawl in the Tavoliere di Puglia (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danese, Maria; Gioia, Dario; Masini, Nicola

    2015-04-01

    The soil consumption is a complex phenomenon because it is due to different causes and it also produces many consequences on landscape and related human activities. In low-relief areas of the Mediterranean regions such as the foredeep of the southern Italian chain, alluvional processes and flooding can play an important role on the amount of available soil, especially if one consider the recent climate changes and the recurrence of extreme events. Moreover the uncontrolled growth of the cities is a cause of soil consumption too. Consequently occurrence of flood events in low-relief areas, erosion processes and urban sprawl have a strong impact on agricultural activities and real estate market, but also in research activities about archaeological heritage, with the risk to loose signs of the past. To consider this phenomenon from a spatial point of view is essential to determine protection policies, but it is nowadays still a problem. In this contribution, we performed a detailed study of the geological and geomorphological features of the drainage network of the Tavoliere di Puglia plain in order to investigate erosional and depositional processes. GIS-supported statistical analysis of the drainage network features allow us to compile a map of the hydrogeological hazard [1]. The map has been used as a basic tool useful to consider areal distribution in soil consumption coming from alluvional processes, erosional phenomena and the urban sprawl of the Tavoliere di Puglia plain (Southern Italy). Moreover, we investigated the relationships between sectors of the Tavoliere di Puglia plain featured by higher hydrogeological risk and archaeological sensibility areas, such as places with existing or with not yet discovered archaeological sites or areas characterized by crop marks [2]. [1] Danese M., Gioia D., Biscione M., Masini N. 2014. Spatial Methods for Archaeological Flood Risk: The Case Study of the Neolithic Sites in the Apulia Region (Southern Italy). Computational

  5. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  7. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  8. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  9. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  11. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  12. Pharmacoeconomic impact evaluation of statin adherence in high-risk unselected post myocardial infarction population: an administrative database-guided analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summaria, Francesco; Ciaralli, Fabrizio; Mustilli, Marina; Sette, Antonella; Lanzillo, Chiara; Vasselli, Loredana

    2013-01-01

    The compliance to statins in secondary prevention is very low, increasing health-care costs principally for rehospitalization. To evaluate the cost of lack of persistence to statin therapy together with identification and cost-estimation of poor compliance. Retrospective observational study starting from administrative database analysis of statin prescription after myocardial infarction. Among 463 patients enrolled, 25.1% were never treated, 70.8% received statins regularly; 14.9% received only 1-2 prescriptions (spot prescription), and 12% were occasional users. Among the 288 nonoccasional users, we found a compliance rate of 80% only in the 59.7%. The cost analysis shows that 59.787,72 euros (23.4%) have been spent for patients with compliance of less than 80% (ineffective adherence). As the lower compliance affects the health-care costs, the identification of occasional users and spot prescriptions of the nonoccasional users, has a potential role in reducing medical expense with limited increase in costs.

  13. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  14. Citation analysis in research evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Moed, Henk F

    2005-01-01

    This book is written for members of the scholarly research community, and for persons involved in research evaluation and research policy. More specifically, it is directed towards the following four main groups of readers: - All scientists and scholars who have been or will be subjected to a quantitative assessment of research performance using citation analysis. - Research policy makers and managers who wish to become conversant with the basic features of citation analysis, and about its potentialities and limitations. - Members of peer review committees and other evaluators, who consider th

  15. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  16. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  17. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  18. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  19. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  20. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  1. Nuclear instrumentation evaluation and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Suk Jun; Han, Sang Joon; Chung, Chong Eun; Han, Kwang Soo; Kim, Dong Hwa; Park, Byung Hae; Moon, Je Sun; Lee, Chel Kwon; Song, Ki Sang; Choi, Myung Jin; Kim, Seung Bok; Kim, Jung Bok

    1986-12-01

    This project provides the program for improving instrumentation reliability as well as developing a cost-effective preventive maintenance activity through evaluation and analysis of nuclear instrumentation concerning pilot plants, large-scale test facilities and various laboratories on KAERI site. In addition, it discusses the program for enhancing safe operations and improving facility availability through establishment of maintenance technology. (Author)

  2. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  3. Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱淑珍; 朱静怡

    2003-01-01

    Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

  4. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  5. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  6. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  7. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  8. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  9. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  10. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  11. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  12. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

  13. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

  14. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  15. The radon in Corsica: evaluation of exposure and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-02-01

    The average level found in Corsica is superior to that one found in France. On the basis of the results of it campaign I.R.S.N.-D.G.S., the French average is of 90 Bq.m 3 against 197 Bq.m 3 for Corsica. The risk of dying from a lung cancer attributable to the radon was estimated at 13 % in France. The evaluation of risk led on Corsica shows a risk attributable to the radon included between 21.5 and 28 %.This evaluation of risk is only a stage. It is important to arrest better the exposure to the radon of the Corsican population. For a good estimation of the levels of radon and thus the impact of this one, additional measures are necessary. The results of the data analysis of exposure allow to guide the choice of the new measures: a campaign on the season effect in Corsica and a completion of the measures in housing are two main axes.Seen the importance of the interaction between the tobacco and the radon, a good estimation of the tobacco customs in Corsica and its evolution in the time seems essential to estimate indeed the impact of the radon in this region. (N.C.)

  16. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  17. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  18. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  19. Destructive analysis and evaluation services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuhn, E.; Lemaire, R.; Wenzel, U.; Aigner, H.; Bagliano, G.; Deron, S.; Jordan, L.

    1986-07-01

    This manual describes the procedures for independent verification measurements by Destructive Analysis as required by the Divisions of Operations. It includes the relevant instructions and information necessary to achieve the verification from sampling through final use of the evaluation results. It is a working/reference document for the Inspectors and for the supporting units, as well as a training manual for Inspectors which brings together all the necessary information for verification by Destructive Analysis. This manual gives information essential to the Inspector and to the units of the Safeguards Analytical Services (SAS) in the following areas: material stratification, sampling, sample conditioning and data collection; packaging, transporting, tracking, receipt and analysis of samples; and evaluation and final use of the evaluation results. This information is provided as: specific instructions and/or examples; summaries of relevant, existing documents; and references to existing documents. Forms are available for sample, item and stratum data collection as well as for transfer of samples and for the reporting of results. A complete typical example package of the documents related to the verification by Destructive Analysis is included. In addition, summaries of the analytical procedures used at the Safeguards Analytical Laboratory (SAL) of the IAEA and the expected measurement performance for element assay and isotopic abundance are provided. (author)

  20. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  1. Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict death in patients with traumatic bleeding, and evaluation of the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality according to baseline risk: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perel, P; Prieto-Merino, D; Shakur, H; Roberts, I

    2013-06-01

    prognostic models we included predictors for death in hospital within 4 weeks of injury. For the stratified analysis we reported ORs for all causes of death, death due to bleeding, and fatal and non-fatal thrombotic events associated with the use of TXA according to baseline risk. A total of 3076 (15%) patients died in the CRASH-2 trial and 1705 (12%) in the TARN data set. Glasgow Coma Scale score, age and systolic blood pressure were the strongest predictors of mortality. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory, with C-statistics > 0.80 in both CRASH-2 trial and TARN data sets. A simple chart was constructed to readily provide the probability of death at the point of care, while a web-based calculator is available for a more detailed risk assessment. TXA reduced all-cause mortality and death due to bleeding in each stratum of baseline risk. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the effect of TXA on all-cause mortality (p-value for interaction = 0.96) or death due to bleeding (p= 0.98). There was a significant reduction in the odds of fatal and non-fatal thrombotic events with TXA (OR = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.89; p= 0.005). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the effect of TXA on the risk of thrombotic events (p= 0.74). This prognostic model can be used to obtain valid predictions of mortality in patients with traumatic bleeding. TXA can be administered safely to a wide spectrum of bleeding trauma patients and should not be restricted to the most severely injured. Future research should evaluate whether or not the use of this prognostic model in clinical practice has an impact on the management and outcomes of trauma patients.

  2. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  3. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  4. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  5. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  6. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  7. Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee

    2018-05-09

    Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.

  8. Voice stress analysis and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Darren M.; Ratley, Roy J.

    2001-02-01

    Voice Stress Analysis (VSA) systems are marketed as computer-based systems capable of measuring stress in a person's voice as an indicator of deception. They are advertised as being less expensive, easier to use, less invasive in use, and less constrained in their operation then polygraph technology. The National Institute of Justice have asked the Air Force Research Laboratory for assistance in evaluating voice stress analysis technology. Law enforcement officials have also been asking questions about this technology. If VSA technology proves to be effective, its value for military and law enforcement application is tremendous.

  9. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  10. Evaluation of potential human health effects associated with the agricultural uses of 1,3-D: Spatial and temporal stochastic risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driver, Jeffrey H; Price, Paul S; Van Wesenbeeck, Ian; Ross, John H; Gehen, Sean; Holden, Larry R; Landenberger, Bryce; Hastings, Kerry; Yan, Zhongyu June; Rasoulpour, Reza

    2016-11-15

    Dow AgroSciences (DAS) markets and sells 1,3-Dichloropropene (1,3-D), the active ingredient in Telone®, which is used as a pre-plant soil fumigant nematicide in economically important crops in California. 1,3-D has been regulated as a "probable human carcinogen" and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation limits use of 1,3-D based on human health risk assessments for bystanders. This paper presents a risk characterization for bystanders based on advances in the assessment of both exposure and hazard. The revised bystander risk assessment incorporates significant advances: 1) new data on residency duration and mobility in communities where 1,3-D is in high demand; 2) new information on spatial and temporal concentrations of 1,3-D in air based on multi-year modeling using a validated model; and 3) a new stochastic spatial and temporal model of long-term exposures. Predicted distributions of long-term, chronic exposures indicate that current, and anticipated uses of 1,3-D would result in lifetime average daily doses lower than 0.002mg/kg/d, a dose associated with theoretical lifetime excess cancer risk of 95% of the local population based on a non-threshold risk assessment approach. Additionally, examination of 1,3-D toxicity studies including new chronic toxicity data and mechanism of action supports the use of a non-linear, threshold based risk assessment approach. The estimated maximum annual average daily dose of 1000-fold, a clear indication of acceptable risk for human health. In summary, the best available science supports 1,3-D's threshold nature of hazard and the revised exposure assessment supports that current agricultural uses of 1,3-D are associated with reasonable certainty of no harm, i.e., estimated long-term exposures pose insignificant health risks to bystanders even when the non-threshold approach is assumed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Evaluation of potential human health effects associated with the agricultural uses of 1,3-D: Spatial and temporal stochastic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Driver, Jeffrey H., E-mail: jeff@risksciences.net [risksciences.net, LLC, 10009 Wisakon Trail, Manassas, VA 20111 (United States); Price, Paul S. [The Dow Chemical Company, 1803 Building, Midland, MI 48674 (United States); Van Wesenbeeck, Ian [Dow AgroSciences, LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 (United States); Ross, John H. [risksciences.net, LLC, 5150 Fair Oaks Blvd., Ste. 101-370, Carmichael, CA 95608 (United States); Gehen, Sean [Dow AgroSciences, LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 (United States); Holden, Larry R. [Larry R. Holden, Statistical Consulting, 1403 Post Oak Circle, College Station, TX (United States); Landenberger, Bryce [The Dow Chemical Company, 1803 Building, Midland, MI 48674 (United States); Hastings, Kerry; Yan, Zhongyu; Rasoulpour, Reza [Dow AgroSciences, LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Dow AgroSciences (DAS) markets and sells 1,3-Dichloropropene (1,3-D), the active ingredient in Telone®, which is used as a pre-plant soil fumigant nematicide in economically important crops in California. 1,3-D has been regulated as a “probable human carcinogen” and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation limits use of 1,3-D based on human health risk assessments for bystanders. This paper presents a risk characterization for bystanders based on advances in the assessment of both exposure and hazard. The revised bystander risk assessment incorporates significant advances: 1) new data on residency duration and mobility in communities where 1,3-D is in high demand; 2) new information on spatial and temporal concentrations of 1,3-D in air based on multi-year modeling using a validated model; and 3) a new stochastic spatial and temporal model of long-term exposures. Predicted distributions of long-term, chronic exposures indicate that current, and anticipated uses of 1,3-D would result in lifetime average daily doses lower than 0.002 mg/kg/d, a dose associated with theoretical lifetime excess cancer risk of < 10{sup −} {sup 5} to > 95% of the local population based on a non-threshold risk assessment approach. Additionally, examination of 1,3-D toxicity studies including new chronic toxicity data and mechanism of action supports the use of a non-linear, threshold based risk assessment approach. The estimated maximum annual average daily dose of < 0.0016 mg/kg/d derived from the updated exposure assessment was then compared with a threshold point of departure. The calculated margin of exposure is > 1000-fold, a clear indication of acceptable risk for human health. In summary, the best available science supports 1,3-D's threshold nature of hazard and the revised exposure assessment supports that current agricultural uses of 1,3-D are associated with reasonable certainty of no harm, i.e., estimated long-term exposures pose insignificant health risks

  12. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  13. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  14. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  15. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  16. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  17. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  18. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  19. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  1. Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1990-02-01

    Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

  2. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  3. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  4. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  5. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  6. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  7. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  8. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicolella, A.

    2000-03-01

    This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)

  10. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  11. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  12. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  13. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  15. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  16. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  17. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  18. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  19. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  20. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  2. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  3. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  4. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  5. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  6. DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOLS TO GENERATE RISK INDICATORS REGARDING DEGRADATION PROCESSES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kioussi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state.Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such

  7. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  8. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  9. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  10. Implementation of a computational system at the Center for Nuclear Technology Development, for systematization the application of the FMEA - Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, for identification of dangerous and developed risks evaluation; Implementacao de um sistema computacional no Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear para sistemarizar a aplicacao da tecnica FMEA - Failure Mode and Effects Analysis - na identificacao de perigos e avaliacao de riscos desenvolvida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, Danyel Pontelo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de, E-mail: dpc@cdtn.b, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.b [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The regulatory bodies request risks evaluations for nuclear and radioactive licensing purposes. In Brazil those evaluations are contained by the safety analysis reports requested by the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN), and risk analysis studies requested by the environment organisms. A risk evaluation includes the identification of the risks and the accident sequence which can occur, and the estimation of the frequency and his undesirable effects on the industrial installations, the public, and the environment. The identification and the risk analysis are particularly important for the implementation of a health, environment and safety integrated management according to the regulation instruments ISO 14001, BS 8800 and OHSAS 18001. The utilization of the risk identification techniques and the risk analysis is performed at the non nuclear industry, in a non standard form by the various sectors of an enterprise, diminishing the effectiveness of the recommended actions based on risk indexes. However, for the nuclear licensing, the CNEN request through their regulatory instruments and standard formats, that the risks, the failure mechanisms and detection be identified, which can allow the preventive and mitigate actions. This paper proposes the utilization of the FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) technique in the licensing process. It was implemented a software through the Excel program, using the Visual Basic for Applications program which allows the automation and the standardization of FMEA studies as well

  11. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana; Jednak, Sandra; Benkovic, Sladana; Poznanic, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: → Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. → Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. → Risk analysis was done using FMEA. → Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. → The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  12. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  13. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  14. Dance floors as injury risk: analysis and evaluation of acute injuries caused by dance floors in professional dance with regard to preventative aspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanke, Eileen M; Mill, Helmgard; Wanke, Alice; Davenport, Jaqueline; Koch, Franziska; Groneberg, David A

    2012-09-01

    A dance floor is often the only support of movements in dance. A dance floor surface that shows deficiencies, can result in acute injuries and chronic problems. Although the significance of an adequate dance floor is well known, there is still a lack of differentiated analyses of dance floor-related acute injuries. This study presents data on acute injuries exclusively caused by the dance floor. The data were obtained from standardized work accident reports from consultants (F 1000), documentary accident records from all Berlin theatres, a state ballet school (n=2,281), and case records from the Berlin State Accident Insurance (UKB) covering a period of 17 years. All analyses and descriptive statistics were conducted with Excel 2007 and SPSS 18. Dance floor surfaces were the causative factor in 12.8% of all accidents (n=291, female 183, male 108). Almost two thirds (62.6%) of all accidents in professional dancers happened on stage, and almost half (49.5%) occurred during performances. As for causative factors, 53.1% of the professional dancers (P) and 42.5% of the dance students (S) claimed that the floor had been "too slippery," with "getting stuck" or (tripping) as the second most common problem (P 18.4%, S 11.3%). Of the injured dancers, 41.8% were older than 30 years and can therefore be categorized as experienced. Dance floors play a significant role in the occurrence of acute injuries, even in experienced dancers. Performances on stage seem to be a particular risk. However, injury prevention measures should include all work locations (P) as well as non-dance-specific locations (S).

  15. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  16. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  17. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  19. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  20. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-01-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations

  1. 76 FR 60449 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Tejocote Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-29

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Tejocote Fruit From Mexico... public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the... fresh tejocote fruit from Mexico. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  2. 77 FR 22557 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Strawberry Fruit From Egypt...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-16

    ... Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2012-0009] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the... importation of fresh strawberry fruit from Egypt. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public...

  3. 75 FR 34422 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Mango Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Mango Fruit From Pakistan...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... phytosanitary measures will be sufficient to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk analysis...

  4. 77 FR 13260 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Litchi, Longan, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-06

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Litchi, Longan, and Rambutan From... we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into... the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We will consider all...

  5. 76 FR 38349 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Dragon Fruit From Thailand...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-30

    ...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Dragon Fruit From Thailand Into the...: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks... importation of dragon fruit from Thailand. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  6. 76 FR 15280 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Persimmon From the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-21

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Persimmon From the Republic... are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated... Africa. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We...

  7. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  8. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  9. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  10. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  11. Evaluation of Risk Versus Benefit Information in Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Prescription Drug Television Advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahim, Germin; Toscani, Michael; Barone, Joseph A; Wang, Chris; Gandhi, Shivani

    2018-01-01

    The FDA's Presenting Risk Information draft guidance from May 2009 states that the time of risk versus benefit is a factor taken into consideration when evaluating audio and video direct-to-consumer (DTC) broadcasts. The objective of the study is to evaluate the proportion of risk narration on television (TV) advertisements in comparison to the actual proportion of serious adverse effects findings across select therapeutic areas. The study reviews prescription drug TV advertisements between the years 2010 and 2015 separated by therapeutic class. Indicators to assess risk versus benefit are as follows: total benefit time, total risk time, total ad time, percentage proportion of risk, and number of serious adverse effects (SAEs) listed in the package insert. The objective is establishing proportion of risk-to-benefit narration across therapeutic areas and the proportion of risk narration compared to the number of SAEs in the package insert. These outcomes will reflect whether TV advertisements abide by the "fair balance" rule and if the time spent on risk narrations is proportional to the number of SAEs across therapeutic areas. An analysis of risk versus benefit showed that there was a vast range of percentage differences in risk versus benefit narration across the products selected. The majority of the products narrated showed a 40% to 60% risk-to-benefit ratio. Six out of the 10 products evaluated communicated applicable black box warnings. There was variability among the SAE percentages presented between products. Lack of consistency exists between risks versus benefit proportions among different drug products.

  12. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  13. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  14. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  15. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  17. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  18. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  19. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  20. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  1. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  2. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  3. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  4. [Evaluation of risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahas, Eliana Aguiar Petri; Omodei, Michelle Sako; Cangussu, Luciana Mendes; Nahas-Neto, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    It was to evaluate the frequency and the risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 women (age: 45-65 years and amenorrhea >12 months) with time since menopause fall was identified as an unexpected unintentional change in position which causes an individual to remain in a lower level in relation to the initial position. The history of self-reported falls during the previous 24 months, and clinical and anthropometric data (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)) and bone densitometric measures were analyzed. For statistical analysis, c² trend test and the logistic regression method (odds ratio (OR)) were used for the comparison between groups of women with and without falls. Of the 358 women, 48.0% (172/358) had a history of falls and 17.4% (30/172) had fractures. The fall occurred indoors (at home) in 58.7% (101/172). The mean age was 53.7 ± 6.5 years, time since menopause 5.8 ± 3.5 years, BMI 28.3 ± 4.6 kg/m² and WC 89.0 ± 11.4 cm. There were differences as the occurrence of smoking and diabetes, with greater frequency among fallers vs. non-fallers, 25.6 versus 16.1% and 12.8 versus 5.9%, respectively (prisk of falls in the presence of influential variables, it was observed that risk increased with current smoking status (OR 1.93; 95%CI 1.01-3.71), whereas other clinical and anthropometric variables did not influence this risk. In early postmenopausal women there was higher frequency of falls. Current smoking was clinical indicators of risk for falls. With the recognition of factors for falling, preventive measures become important, as the orientation of abolishing smoking.

  5. The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

  6. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  7. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  8. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  9. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  10. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  11. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  12. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  13. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  14. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  15. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  16. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  17. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  18. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  19. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  20. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  1. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  3. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  4. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  5. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  7. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  8. Evaluation of a visual risk communication tool: effects on knowledge and perception of blood transfusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D H; Mehta, M D

    2003-06-01

    Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.

  9. Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

    2014-01-01

    The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

  10. Uncertainty analysis for Ulysses safety evaluation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source---Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show that INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low

  11. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  12. Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

  13. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  14. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  15. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  16. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  17. Packaging and transportation risk management and evaluation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhyne, W.R.

    1993-09-01

    Shipments of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are governed by a variety of Federal and state regulations, industrial standards, and LANL processes and procedures. Good judgement is exercised in situations that are not covered by regulations. As a result, the safety record for transporting hazardous materials at LANL has been excellent. However, future decisions should be made such that the decision-making process produces a defensible record of the safety of onsite shipments. This report proposes the development of a risk management tool to meet this need. First, the application of quantitative risk analysis methodology to transportation is presented to provide a framework of understanding. Risk analysis definitions, the basic quantitative risk analysis procedure, quantitative methodologies, transportation data bases, and risk presentation techniques are described. Quantitative risk analysis is frequently complex; but simplified approaches can be used as a management tool to make good decisions. Second, a plan to apply the use of risk management principles to the selection of routes, special administrative controls, and containers for hazardous material transportation at LANL is provided. A risk management tool is proposed that can be used by MAT-2 without substantial support from specialized safety and risk analysis personnel, e.g., HS-3. A workbook approach is proposed that can be automated at a later date. The safety of some types of onsite shipments at LANL is not well documented. Documenting that shipments are safe, i.e., present acceptable risks, will likely require elaborate analyses that should be thoroughly reviewed by safety and risk professionals. These detailed analyses are used as benchmarks and as examples for the use of the proposed tool by MAT-2. Once the benchmarks are established, the workbook can be used by MAT-2 to quantify that safety goals are met by similar shipments

  18. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  19. Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

  20. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

  1. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  3. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  4. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  5. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  6. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  7. Risk Analysis of Fukushima Accident using MACCS2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seunghee; Kim, Juyoul; Kim, Sukhoon; Kim, Juyub [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    It has been three years since Fukushima Daiichi accident had occurred. Many efforts have been done for a restoration, however, radioactive materials are still released resulting in a crucial additional damage to a human health and economics and the scale of damage is not much evaluated. Therefore, an estimation of damage degree caused by the released radioactive materials right after a nuclear accident is essential to cope with additional radioactive problems. Here, we report the risk analysis of Fukushima Dai-ichi accident using MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2), which is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) code for evaluating off-site consequences. It is used in level-3 Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA), for planning purposes, for cost-benefit analyses and so on. The purpose of this study is to estimate radiological doses and health risks of Fukushima Daiichi accident through short- and long-term of lifetime using MACCS2. In summary, the health risk for inhabitants near Fukushima Daiichi NPP has been evaluated by considering the long term radiation effect using MACCS2 code. The result indicates that the occurrence and death rate of the cancer have been increased by the radioactive materials released from Fukushima Daiichi accident. The result obtained in this study may provide new insights for taking action after the nuclear reactor accident to mitigate the released radioactive materials and to prepare the countermeasure.

  8. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  9. Evaluation of Parkinson disease risk variants as expression-QTLs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne C Latourelle

    Full Text Available The recent Parkinson Disease GWAS Consortium meta-analysis and replication study reports association at several previously confirmed risk loci SNCA, MAPT, GAK/DGKQ, and HLA and identified a novel risk locus at RIT2. To further explore functional consequences of these associations, we investigated modification of gene expression in prefrontal cortex brain samples of pathologically confirmed PD cases (N = 26 and controls (N = 24 by 67 associated SNPs in these 5 loci. Association between the eSNPs and expression was evaluated using a 2-degrees of freedom test of both association and difference in association between cases and controls, adjusted for relevant covariates. SNPs at each of the 5 loci were tested for cis-acting effects on all probes within 250 kb of each locus. Trans-effects of the SNPs on the 39,122 probes passing all QC on the microarray were also examined. From the analysis of cis-acting SNP effects, several SNPs in the MAPT region show significant association to multiple nearby probes, including two strongly correlated probes targeting the gene LOC644246 and the duplicated genes LRRC37A and LRRC37A2, and a third uncorrelated probe targeting the gene DCAKD. Significant cis-associations were also observed between SNPs and two probes targeting genes in the HLA region on chromosome 6. Expanding the association study to examine trans effects revealed an additional 23 SNP-probe associations reaching statistical significance (p<2.8 × 10(-8 including SNPs from the SNCA, MAPT and RIT2 regions. These findings provide additional context for the interpretation of PD associated SNPs identified in recent GWAS as well as potential insight into the mechanisms underlying the observed SNP associations.

  10. Evaluation of Parkinson disease risk variants as expression-QTLs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latourelle, Jeanne C; Dumitriu, Alexandra; Hadzi, Tiffany C; Beach, Thomas G; Myers, Richard H

    2012-01-01

    The recent Parkinson Disease GWAS Consortium meta-analysis and replication study reports association at several previously confirmed risk loci SNCA, MAPT, GAK/DGKQ, and HLA and identified a novel risk locus at RIT2. To further explore functional consequences of these associations, we investigated modification of gene expression in prefrontal cortex brain samples of pathologically confirmed PD cases (N = 26) and controls (N = 24) by 67 associated SNPs in these 5 loci. Association between the eSNPs and expression was evaluated using a 2-degrees of freedom test of both association and difference in association between cases and controls, adjusted for relevant covariates. SNPs at each of the 5 loci were tested for cis-acting effects on all probes within 250 kb of each locus. Trans-effects of the SNPs on the 39,122 probes passing all QC on the microarray were also examined. From the analysis of cis-acting SNP effects, several SNPs in the MAPT region show significant association to multiple nearby probes, including two strongly correlated probes targeting the gene LOC644246 and the duplicated genes LRRC37A and LRRC37A2, and a third uncorrelated probe targeting the gene DCAKD. Significant cis-associations were also observed between SNPs and two probes targeting genes in the HLA region on chromosome 6. Expanding the association study to examine trans effects revealed an additional 23 SNP-probe associations reaching statistical significance (p<2.8 × 10(-8)) including SNPs from the SNCA, MAPT and RIT2 regions. These findings provide additional context for the interpretation of PD associated SNPs identified in recent GWAS as well as potential insight into the mechanisms underlying the observed SNP associations.

  11. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  12. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  13. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  14. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  15. A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

    2014-01-01

    Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

  16. SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

  17. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  18. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    with better decision support tools. Some of the developments are risk frameworks that encompass economic and/or ethic evaluation of climate change adaptation options and improved risk management. This line of development is based on a societal-based evaluation of maximizing the outcome for society...... in extreme precipitation has been observed, corresponding to an increase of design levels of at least 30 %. Analysis of climate change model output has given clear evidence, that further increases in extreme precipitation must be expected in the future due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses...... and planned urban drainage solutions are shared between very different stakeholders and that current practices are leading to personal bankruptcy by those bearing the highest costs. Therefore solutions must be developed that are understandable and can be communicated between different stakeholders...

  19. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  1. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  2. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  3. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  4. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  5. 78 FR 40688 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Swiss Chard From Colombia...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-08

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Swiss Chard From Colombia Into the... availability. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... weeds via the importation of Swiss chard from Colombia. We are making the pest risk analysis available...

  6. 75 FR 78207 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Rambutan Fruit...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-15

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Rambutan Fruit (Nephelium...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... Malaysia and Vietnam. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment...

  7. 75 FR 6345 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh False Coriander From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh False Coriander From Panama...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... weeds via the importation of fresh false coriander from Panama. We are making the pest risk analysis...

  8. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  9. Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Kuei-Yung; Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Agencies are increasingly following principles and guidelines for the coordination of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication in large-scale programs. In particular, there is a challenge to comply with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis” among other guidelines. This paper demonstrates a systemic approach to achieve compliance of a risk program with administrative and organizational principles and guidelines for risk analysis. The paper suggests three canonical questions as the mission of such a program: (i) what sources of risks are to be managed by the program, (ii) how should multiple risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication activities be administered and coordinated, and what should be the basis for resource allocation to these activities, and (iii) how will the performance of the program be monitored and evaluated. The paper demonstrates a re-prioritization of policy initiatives of the program based on emergent and future conditions. The approach is useful to agencies implementing risk or safety organizational guidelines such as those of the OMB, the US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Department of Defense, and others. This paper will be of interest to risk managers; agencies; and risk and safety analysts engaged in the conception, implementation, and evaluation of risk or safety programs. - Highlights: ► We develop a systemic approach for management of a risk or safety program. ► The approach includes business process models and policy prioritization. ► The results support organizations to implement risk and safety programs.

  10. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  11. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  12. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  13. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  14. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  15. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  16. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  17. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  18. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  19. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

    2011-01-01

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  20. The effect of 6 and 15 MV on intensity-modulated radiation therapy prostate cancer treatment: plan evaluation, tumour control probability and normal tissue complication probability analysis, and the theoretical risk of secondary induced malignancies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, M; Aldridge, S; Guerrero Urbano, T; Nisbet, A

    2012-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of 6 and 15-MV photon energies on intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) prostate cancer treatment plan outcome and to compare the theoretical risks of secondary induced malignancies. Methods Separate prostate cancer IMRT plans were prepared for 6 and 15-MV beams. Organ-equivalent doses were obtained through thermoluminescent dosemeter measurements in an anthropomorphic Aldersen radiation therapy human phantom. The neutron dose contribution at 15 MV was measured using polyallyl-diglycol-carbonate neutron track etch detectors. Risk coefficients from the International Commission on Radiological Protection Report 103 were used to compare the risk of fatal secondary induced malignancies in out-of-field organs and tissues for 6 and 15 MV. For the bladder and the rectum, a comparative evaluation of the risk using three separate models was carried out. Dose–volume parameters for the rectum, bladder and prostate planning target volume were evaluated, as well as normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and tumour control probability calculations. Results There is a small increased theoretical risk of developing a fatal cancer from 6 MV compared with 15 MV, taking into account all the organs. Dose–volume parameters for the rectum and bladder show that 15 MV results in better volume sparing in the regions below 70 Gy, but the volume exposed increases slightly beyond this in comparison with 6 MV, resulting in a higher NTCP for the rectum of 3.6% vs 3.0% (p=0.166). Conclusion The choice to treat using IMRT at 15 MV should not be excluded, but should be based on risk vs benefit while considering the age and life expectancy of the patient together with the relative risk of radiation-induced cancer and NTCPs. PMID:22010028

  1. The third experiment of operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsumura, Soichiro; Kimura, Hiroshi; Furuta, Kazuo; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2006-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for HLW disposal on World Wide Web. We have been evaluating ORCAT system. After two test operations, we carried out the third test operation from Aug. 29 to Dec. 12, 2005. In the third test operation, 100 participants answered the questionnaires about the attitude change and knowledge. We classified the participants into two groups by the analysis on the number of login a week, and analyzed the change of the amount of subjective and objective knowledge. In the result of analysis on knowledge, the increase of amount of subjective knowledge doesn't always carried the increase of amount of objective knowledge. On the whole we found that the ORCAT system is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  2. Mare Risk Analysis monitor; Monitor de analisis de riesgos mare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A. [Empresarios Agrupados, A. I.E. Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  3. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  4. Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimy Fluyau

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundKratom (Mitragyna speciosa is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules. Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug’s effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world.MethodsLiterature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom (M. speciosa.ResultsData analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and

  5. The risk analysis during production process of an innovative baby carriage with a bike function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nowiński Emil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the risk assesment of damages occurance in production stage of a babycarriage with a bike function. The analysis of risk is done by using the FMEA – Failure Made and Effect Analysis that is used in aviation and automotive industry. This way of innovative product assessment allows to evaluate the risk of defects and indicate the priorities of quality for key parts as well as the device.

  6. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Forage evaluation by analysis after

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    by forages, can be estimated by amino acid analysis of the products of fermentation in vitro. Typical results of such analyses are presented in Table 1. These results indicate that after fermentation the amino acid balance of forages is not optimal for either milk or meat production, with histidine usually being the first limiting.

  8. Environmental risk analysis for offshore oil and gas activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brude, Odd Willy; Aspholm, Ole O.; Rudberg, Anders [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities always have a risk for environmental impact due to potential accidental releases of oil and gas. The environmental risk can be calculated as a combination of the frequency of such accidents to occur and their environmental consequences in terms of environmental damage to habitats or populations. A method for conducting environmental risk analysis has been in use in Norwegian offshore waters for a decade, with a continuously refinement of methodology over the past years. This paper outlines the principles in the MIRA method and gives examples and discussions regarding use in different environmental compartments. The risk assessment starts with identification of oil spill scenarios with frequencies of potential release rates and spill durations. The next step is to model the oil drift for each accidental oil spill scenario. Drift and fate of oil is modeled probabilistic. Based on the oil spill scenarios and their probability of oil pollution, the potential environmental damage is quantified for each scenario. The endpoint of environmental damage is reduction of a population and the resulting recovery time (in years) for various species and habitats. Environmental risk levels are then evaluated against the operating companies' environmental acceptance criteria. (author)

  9. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  10. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  11. Use of the Immunegenetical Methods for Biological Risks Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozdnyakova, L.; Stopchanskaya, A.; Parkhomenko, N.; Pilipenko, N.; Kostyuchenko, L.; Djurtubaeva, G.; Slavina, N.; Pozdnyakov, S.

    2007-01-01

    For the present biological risk evaluation and forecast, information on gene-phenotypic characteristics of circulating regional EDAs, their connatural sources and conditions for epidemic distribution is necessary. We lead a relative gene-phenotypic comparison of vaccine and wild F.tularensis strains isolated from carriers, vectors, environment and patients in the different natural foci. Phenotyping investigations were done on 'in vitro' model with use of the human peripheral blood immune competent cells (ICC) of non-vaccinated and vaccinated with LVS volunteers. Variations of virulence manifestations of F.tularensis strains, isolated from different sources (ticks, waters, patients) are revealed. Principal differences in interactions of ICC with strains of various virulence degree, presence of ICC structural-functional changes in cytokines secretion dynamics at the presence of the wild and vaccine strains are shown. Morphological proofs for toxic materials production by pathogen during reproductive development term, damaging membranes structure, nucleus and cytoplasm are received. Certain interrelations between isolates phenotypic characteristics, source of isolation and types of natural foci is revealed. VNTR-analysis has showed genotypical heterogeneity and specific peculiarities in VNTR locuses combination of F. tularensis strains from different sources. Biological sense of VNTR-locuses combinations variations and their influence upon virulence signs expression are discussed. The complex approach, including agent's gene-phenotypic characteristics, ecological and geographical features of the natural foci, level of the human recruitment into the epidemic process will promote development of measures for counteraction in case of agents and their modified variants deliberate use. (author)

  12. [Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

    2014-08-01

    A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

  13. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  14. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  15. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  16. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  17. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  18. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  19. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  20. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  1. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  2. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  3. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  4. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  5. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  6. Generic Pest Risk Analysis for Potato in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baidya Nath Mahto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analysis (PRA is the process of evaluation for biological and economic evidences in order to determine whether a pest should be regulated under phyto-sanitary measures. The present mini review highlights the potential potato pathogen list recorded in Nepal harmful for potato production and productivity. At global scale altogether 135 potential quarantine pests (PQP for potato has been recorded, while in Nepal only 92 PQP were recorded. Out of those 52, 13 and 27 were fungi, bacteria and viruses respectively. Among the 92 PQP, 34, 30 and 13 were considered at high, medium and lower risk type pathogens for potato. There was no information available on other 15 PQP.

  7. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  8. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  9. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  10. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  11. The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiak, E.

    1984-01-01

    The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

  12. Reactor accident analysis and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.W.

    1983-01-01

    Reactor Management Division of Korea Advanced Energy Research Institute has, so far, adopted, modified and developed quite a number of large programs for nuclear core analysis. During the course of this work, it was found necessary to employ some standard subroutines for handling data, input procedures, core memory management and search files. Many programs share lots of common subroutines and/or functions with other programs. Above all, some of them are in lack of transmittal. During the installation of big codes for CYBER computer, it has drawn our keen attention that many elementary subroutines are heavily machine-dependent and that their conversion is extremely difficult. After having collected and modified the subroutines to fit in different codes, it was finally named KINEP (KAERI Improved Nuclear Environmental Package). KINEP has been proved to be convenient even for smaller programs for general purpose. The KINEP includes about one hundred subroutines to facilitate data handling, operator communications, storage allocation, decimal input, file maintence and scratch I/O. (Author)

  13. Risk analysis associated with petroleum hydrocarbons: is everything running smoothly?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morin, D.

    1999-01-01

    Petroleum products represent one of the main sources of environmental contamination, and these products are complex, composed of several hundred individual hydrocarbons. The evaluation of the risks associated with petroleum products is often limited by certain specific parameters such as benzene. The petroleum hydrocarbons running from C(10) to C(50) are not often integrated in an analysis of the toxological risks since the toxological characterization of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons is difficult to carry out. There exist in the United States two approaches that were developed recently that allow the integration of various hydrocarbons comprising a mixture. In this presentation, two of these approaches are described and compared. An overview of these approaches related to Canadian regulatory bodies is included, and a case study completes the account. The two approaches that are most well known in this area are: 1) that of the Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, and 2) that of the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group. The integration of petroleum hydrocarbons in a quantitative evaluation of their toxological risk is possible by present methods. This integration allows a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the use of an integrating parameter in the case of these petroleum hydrocarbons in the C(10) to the C(50) range

  14. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  15. Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

    2013-01-01

    A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

  16. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  17. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  18. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  19. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  20. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  1. Beyond risk: a psychometric and cultural analysis of risk percepion in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Byung-Sun; Chung, Ik Jae

    2002-01-01

    A survey of technological risk perception in Korea was administered in 2001 with a special emphasis on nuclear risks. This paper summarizes the characteristics of risk perception through the analytic lens of psychometric paradigm. A group of experts identified 8 dimensions of risk; voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity. The survey with sample size of 1870 evaluates the perceived level of 25 technological risks including transportation, chemicals, environmental, industrial, as well as nuclear areas. Research findings confirm that the risk characteristics or dimensions are significant predictors of risk perception. Nuclear risks are perceived as involuntary, catastrophic, delayed, occasional, controllable, beneficiary, unfamiliar, and necessary. The paper underlines the need and the importance of nuclear power generation as an environmentally-friendly energy resource in Korea. Effective risk communication can improve the awareness and the understanding of nuclear risks as well as other technological risk, and ultimately foster the public acceptance of nuclear facilities

  2. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  3. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  4. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  5. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  6. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  7. Previsional evaluation of risks associated with ground transportation of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pages, P.; Tomachevsky, E.

    1987-11-01

    This communication is a concrete example of application of the evaluation method for risks associated with road transportation of uranium hexafluoride by 48Y shipping container. The statistical bases for UF6 transportation are given by analysis of the list of accidents for dangerous road transportation. This study examines all parameters (cost-safety-meteorology-radiation doses) to take in account in the safety analysis of the UF6 transportation between Pierrelatte and Le Havre [fr

  8. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  9. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  10. Fundamentals of defining and evaluating technical risks and hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, G.

    1982-01-01

    This contribution is concerned with discussions of undefined judicial concepts in the area of Safety engineering from the point of view of science and technology. Concepts like risk assessments, including accident probibility predictions are discussed and condensed in the demand: ''Risk must be acceptably low.'' Acceptability of risk is and remains a question of judgement. This judgement must be based on the specific plant involved, and in the final analysis; should be made on the basis of value judgements of all concerned. Measures and criteria for the acceptability of risk have been developed over the years. They will be determined by safety-related of security maximum acceptable values as stated in the appropriate regulations, as well as through licensing, permits, etc. Experience shows that a continuous expansion, based on safety-related research that would include extensive accident analysis, is needed. Should the status of science and technology change, it could become necessary that the measures or criteria for risk assessment would have to change also. (orig./HSCH) [de

  11. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  12. Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

    1994-11-01

    This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site

  13. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  14. Risk-benefit evaluation of nuclear power plant siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, J.; Savolainen, I.; Silvennoinen, P.

    1976-01-01

    An assessment scheme is described for the risk-benefit analyses of nuclear power versus conventional alternatives. Given the siting parameters for the proposed nuclear plant an economic comparison is made with the most advantageous competitive conventional production scenario. The economic benefit is determined from the differential discounted annual energy procurement cost as a function of the real interest rate and amortization time. The risk analysis encompasses the following factors: radiation risks in normal operation, reactor accident hazards and economic risks, atmospheric pollutants from the conventional power plants, and fuel transportation. The hazards are first considered in terms of probabilistic dose distributions. In the second stage risk components are converted to a compatible form where excess mortality is used as the risk indicator. Practical calculations are performed for the power production alternatives of Helsinki where district heat would be extracted from the nuclear power plant. At the real interest rate of 10% and amortization time of 20 yr the 1000 MW(e) nuclear option is found to be Pound9.1 m per yr more economic than the optimal conventional scenario. Simultaneously the nuclear alternative is estimated to reduce excess mortality by 2 to 5 fatal injuries annually. (author)

  15. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    This document provides guidance on the process of risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) at the Hanford Site. Remediation activities at the Hanford Site are being conducted pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Restoration, Compensation, and Liability Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This document identifies points in the remedial alternative selection process where risk assessment input is either required or desirable. For each of these points of application, the document identifies issues to consider and address, and suggests possible approaches, techniques, and appropriate levels of detail. The level of detail of a RERA is driven by the need to use risk as a criterion for selecting a remedial alternative. Such a document is needed to ensure that RERA is conducted in a consistent manner, and to prevent restating or creating guidance within each RERA

  16. Value at risk methodologies: Developments, implementation and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Simin

    2006-01-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is a useful concept in risk disclosure, especially for financial institutions. In this paper, the origin and development as well as the regulatory requirement of VaR are discussed. Furthermore, a hypothetical foreign currency forward contract is used as an example to illustrate the implementation of VaR. Back testing is conducted to test the soundness of each VaR model. Analysis in this paper shows that historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation approaches have more ...

  17. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    OpenAIRE

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. T...

  18. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-04-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  20. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA