WorldWideScience

Sample records for evaluation model based

  1. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    the conceptual model on which it is based. In this study, a number of model structural shortcomings were identified, such as a lack of dissolved phosphorus transport via infiltration excess overland flow, potential discrepancies in the particulate phosphorus simulation and a lack of spatial granularity. (4) Conceptual challenges, as conceptual models on which predictive models are built are often outdated, having not kept up with new insights from monitoring and experiments. For example, soil solution dissolved phosphorus concentration in INCA-P is determined by the Freundlich adsorption isotherm, which could potentially be replaced using more recently-developed adsorption models that take additional soil properties into account. This checklist could be used to assist in identifying why model performance may be poor or unreliable. By providing a model evaluation framework, it could help prioritise which areas should be targeted to improve model performance or model credibility, whether that be through using alternative calibration techniques and statistics, improved data collection, improving or simplifying the model structure or updating the model to better represent current understanding of catchment processes.

  2. Evaluating Emulation-based Models of Distributed Computing Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Stephen T. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Cyber Initiatives; Gabert, Kasimir G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Cyber Initiatives; Tarman, Thomas D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Emulytics Initiatives

    2017-08-01

    Emulation-based models of distributed computing systems are collections of virtual ma- chines, virtual networks, and other emulation components configured to stand in for oper- ational systems when performing experimental science, training, analysis of design alterna- tives, test and evaluation, or idea generation. As with any tool, we should carefully evaluate whether our uses of emulation-based models are appropriate and justified. Otherwise, we run the risk of using a model incorrectly and creating meaningless results. The variety of uses of emulation-based models each have their own goals and deserve thoughtful evaluation. In this paper, we enumerate some of these uses and describe approaches that one can take to build an evidence-based case that a use of an emulation-based model is credible. Predictive uses of emulation-based models, where we expect a model to tell us something true about the real world, set the bar especially high and the principal evaluation method, called validation , is comensurately rigorous. We spend the majority of our time describing and demonstrating the validation of a simple predictive model using a well-established methodology inherited from decades of development in the compuational science and engineering community.

  3. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk

  4. Ergonomic evaluation model of operational room based on team performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Zhiyi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical calculation model based on the ergonomic evaluation of team performance was proposed in order to carry out the ergonomic evaluation of the layout design schemes of the action station in a multitasking operational room. This model was constructed in order to calculate and compare the theoretical value of team performance in multiple layout schemes by considering such substantial influential factors as frequency of communication, distance, angle, importance, human cognitive characteristics and so on. An experiment was finally conducted to verify the proposed model under the criteria of completion time and accuracy rating. As illustrated by the experiment results,the proposed approach is conductive to the prediction and ergonomic evaluation of the layout design schemes of the action station during early design stages,and provides a new theoretical method for the ergonomic evaluation,selection and optimization design of layout design schemes.

  5. Evaluation of Artificial Intelligence Based Models for Chemical Biodegradability Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Sabljic

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a review of biodegradability modeling efforts including a detailed assessment of two models developed using an artificial intelligence based methodology. Validation results for these models using an independent, quality reviewed database, demonstrate that the models perform well when compared to another commonly used biodegradability model, against the same data. The ability of models induced by an artificial intelligence methodology to accommodate complex interactions in detailed systems, and the demonstrated reliability of the approach evaluated by this study, indicate that the methodology may have application in broadening the scope of biodegradability models. Given adequate data for biodegradability of chemicals under environmental conditions, this may allow for the development of future models that include such things as surface interface impacts on biodegradability for example.

  6. Port performance evaluation tool based on microsimulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsavalista Burhani Jzolanda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As port performance is becoming correlative to national competitiveness, the issue of port performance evaluation has significantly raised. Port performances can simply be indicated by port service levels to the ship (e.g., throughput, waiting for berthing etc., as well as the utilization level of equipment and facilities within a certain period. The performances evaluation then can be used as a tool to develop related policies for improving the port’s performance to be more effective and efficient. However, the evaluation is frequently conducted based on deterministic approach, which hardly captures the nature variations of port parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a stochastic microsimulation model for investigating the impacts of port parameter variations to the port performances. The variations are derived from actual data in order to provide more realistic results. The model is further developed using MATLAB and Simulink based on the queuing theory.

  7. Evaluation-Function-based Model-free Adaptive Fuzzy Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Naba

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Designs of adaptive fuzzy controllers (AFC are commonly based on the Lyapunov approach, which requires a known model of the controlled plant. They need to consider a Lyapunov function candidate as an evaluation function to be minimized. In this study these drawbacks were handled by designing a model-free adaptive fuzzy controller (MFAFC using an approximate evaluation function defined in terms of the current state, the next state, and the control action. MFAFC considers the approximate evaluation function as an evaluative control performance measure similar to the state-action value function in reinforcement learning. The simulation results of applying MFAFC to the inverted pendulum benchmark verified the proposed scheme’s efficacy.

  8. Model-based efficiency evaluation of combine harvester traction drives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Häberle

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available As part of the research the drive train of the combine harvesters is investigated in detail. The focus on load and power distribution, energy consumption and usage distribution are explicitly explored on two test machines. Based on the lessons learned during field operations, model-based studies of energy saving potential in the traction train of combine harvesters can now be quantified. Beyond that the virtual machine trial provides an opportunity to compare innovative drivetrain architectures and control solutions under reproducible conditions. As a result, an evaluation method is presented and generically used to draw comparisons under local representative operating conditions.

  9. Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Diana; Bains, Iren; Vanni, Tazio; Jit, Mark

    2015-05-01

    Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies. We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted. We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice. Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country

  10. A Category Based Threat Evaluation Model Using Platform Kinematics Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Çöçelli

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Command and control (C2 systems direct operators to make accurate decisions in the stressful atmosphere of the battlefield at the earliest. There are powerful tools that fuse various instant piece of information and brings summary of those in front of operators. Threat evaluation is one of the important fusion method that provides these assistance to military people. However, C2 systems could be deprived of valuable data source due to the absence of capable equipment. This situation has a bad unfavorable influence on the quality of tactical picture in front of C2 operators. In this paper, we study on the threat evaluation model that take into account these deficiencies. Our method extracts threat level of various targets mostly from their kinematics in two dimensional space. In the meantime, classification of entities around battlefield is unavailable. Only, category of targets are determined as a result of sensors process, which is the information of whether entities belong to air or surface environment. Hereby, threat evaluation model is consist of three fundamental steps that runs on entities belongs to different environment separately: the extraction of threat assessment cues, threat selection based on Bayesian Inference and the calculation of threat assessment rating. We have evaluated performance of proposed model by simulating a set of synthetic scenarios.

  11. Nuclear safety culture evaluation model based on SSE-CMM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaohua; Liu Zhenghai; Liu Zhiming; Wan Yaping; Peng Guojian

    2012-01-01

    Safety culture, which is of great significance to establish safety objectives, characterizes level of enterprise safety production and development. Traditional safety culture evaluation models emphasis on thinking and behavior of individual and organization, and pay attention to evaluation results while ignore process. Moreover, determining evaluation indicators lacks objective evidence. A novel multidimensional safety culture evaluation model, which has scientific and completeness, is addressed by building an preliminary mapping between safety culture and SSE-CMM's (Systems Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model) process area and generic practice. The model focuses on enterprise system security engineering process evaluation and provides new ideas and scientific evidences for the study of safety culture. (authors)

  12. Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

  13. Evaluating energy saving system of data centers based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yingni

    2018-03-01

    Due to the high energy consumption of communication, energy saving of data centers must be enforced. But the lack of evaluation mechanisms has restrained the process on energy saving construction of data centers. In this paper, energy saving evaluation index system of data centers was constructed on the basis of clarifying the influence factors. Based on the evaluation index system, analytical hierarchy process was used to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes. Subsequently, a three-grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was constructed to evaluate the energy saving system of data centers.

  14. Interactive model evaluation tool based on IPython notebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balemans, Sophie; Van Hoey, Stijn; Nopens, Ingmar; Seuntjes, Piet

    2015-04-01

    In hydrological modelling, some kind of parameter optimization is mostly performed. This can be the selection of a single best parameter set, a split in behavioural and non-behavioural parameter sets based on a selected threshold or a posterior parameter distribution derived with a formal Bayesian approach. The selection of the criterion to measure the goodness of fit (likelihood or any objective function) is an essential step in all of these methodologies and will affect the final selected parameter subset. Moreover, the discriminative power of the objective function is also dependent from the time period used. In practice, the optimization process is an iterative procedure. As such, in the course of the modelling process, an increasing amount of simulations is performed. However, the information carried by these simulation outputs is not always fully exploited. In this respect, we developed and present an interactive environment that enables the user to intuitively evaluate the model performance. The aim is to explore the parameter space graphically and to visualize the impact of the selected objective function on model behaviour. First, a set of model simulation results is loaded along with the corresponding parameter sets and a data set of the same variable as the model outcome (mostly discharge). The ranges of the loaded parameter sets define the parameter space. A selection of the two parameters visualised can be made by the user. Furthermore, an objective function and a time period of interest need to be selected. Based on this information, a two-dimensional parameter response surface is created, which actually just shows a scatter plot of the parameter combinations and assigns a color scale corresponding with the goodness of fit of each parameter combination. Finally, a slider is available to change the color mapping of the points. Actually, the slider provides a threshold to exclude non behaviour parameter sets and the color scale is only attributed to the

  15. A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kremmydas, Dimitris; Athanasiadis, I.N.; Rozakis, Stelios

    2018-01-01

    Farm level scale policy analysis is receiving increased attention due to a changing agricultural policy orientation. Agent based models (ABM) are farm level models that have appeared in the end of 1990's, having several differences from traditional farm level models, like the consideration of

  16. A smart growth evaluation model based on data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaokun; Guan, Yongyi

    2018-04-01

    With the rapid spread of urbanization, smart growth (SG) has attracted plenty of attention from all over the world. In this paper, by the establishment of index system for smart growth, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was suggested to evaluate the SG level of the current growth situation in cities. In order to further improve the information of both radial direction and non-radial detection, we introduced the non-Archimedean infinitesimal to form C2GS2 control model. Finally, we evaluated the SG level in Canberra and identified a series of problems, which can verify the applicability of the model and provide us more improvement information.

  17. QUALITY SERVICES EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON DEDICATED SOFTWARE TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREEA CRISTINA IONICĂ

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we introduced a new model, called Service Quality (SQ, which combines QFD and SERVQUAL methods. This model takes from the SERVQUAL method the five dimensions of requirements and three of characteristics and from the QFD method the application methodology. The originality of the SQ model consists in computing a global index that reflects the customers’ requirements accomplishment level by the quality characteristics. In order to prove the viability of the SQ model, there was developed a software tool that was applied for the evaluation of a health care services provider.

  18. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  19. A PRODUCTIVITY EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON INPUT AND OUTPUT ORIENTATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.O. Anyaeche

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Many productivity models evaluate either the input or the output performances using standalone techniques. This sometimes gives divergent views of the same system’s results. The work reported in this article, which simultaneously evaluated productivity from both orientations, was applied on real life data. The results showed losses in productivity (–2% and price recovery (–8% for the outputs; the inputs showed productivity gain (145% but price recovery loss (–63%. These imply losses in product performances but a productivity gain in inputs. The loss in the price recovery of inputs indicates a problem in the pricing policy. This model is applicable in product diversification.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die meeste produktiwiteitsmodelle evalueer of die inset- of die uitsetverrigting deur gebruik te maak van geïsoleerde tegnieke. Dit lei soms tot uiteenlopende perspektiewe van dieselfde sisteem se verrigting. Hierdie artikel evalueer verrigting uit beide perspektiewe en gebruik ware data. Die resultate toon ‘n afname in produktiwiteit (-2% en prysherwinning (-8% vir die uitsette. Die insette toon ‘n toename in produktiwiteit (145%, maar ‘n afname in prysherwinning (-63%. Dit impliseer ‘n afname in produkverrigting, maar ‘n produktiwiteitstoename in insette. Die afname in die prysherwinning van insette dui op ‘n problem in die prysvasstellingbeleid. Hierdie model is geskik vir produkdiversifikasie.

  20. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  1. Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

  2. Comprehensive evaluation of Shahid Motahari Educational Festival during 2008-2013 based on CIPP Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SN Hosseini

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Education quality improvement is one of the main goals of higher education. In this regard, has been provided various solutions such as holding educational Shahid Motahari annual festivals, in order to appreciate of educational process, development and innovation educational processes and procedures, preparation of calibration standards and processes of accrediting educational. The aim of this study was to comprehensive evaluating of educational Shahid Motahari festival during six periods (2008-2013 based on CIPP evaluation model. Method : This cross-sectional study was conducted among the 473 faculty members include deputies and administrators educational, administrators and faculty members of medical education development centers, members of the scientific committee and faculty member’s participants in Shahid Motahari festival from 42 universities medical sciences of Iran. Data collection based on self-report writing questionnaires. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 20 at α=0.05 significant level. Results: The subjects reported 75.13%, 65.33%, 64.5%, and 59.21 % of receivable scores of process, context, input and product, respectively. In addition, there was a direct and significant correlation between all domains . Conclusion : According to the study findings, in the evaluation and correlation of domains models, we can explicitly how to holding festivals was appropriate and the main reason for the poor evaluation in product domain is related to the problems in input and product domains.

  3. An inverse problem strategy based on forward model evaluations: Gradient-based optimization without adjoint solves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aguilo Valentin, Miguel Alejandro [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This study presents a new nonlinear programming formulation for the solution of inverse problems. First, a general inverse problem formulation based on the compliance error functional is presented. The proposed error functional enables the computation of the Lagrange multipliers, and thus the first order derivative information, at the expense of just one model evaluation. Therefore, the calculation of the Lagrange multipliers does not require the solution of the computationally intensive adjoint problem. This leads to significant speedups for large-scale, gradient-based inverse problems.

  4. Hybrid network defense model based on fuzzy evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Ying-Chiang; Pan, Jen-Yi

    2014-01-01

    With sustained and rapid developments in the field of information technology, the issue of network security has become increasingly prominent. The theme of this study is network data security, with the test subject being a classified and sensitive network laboratory that belongs to the academic network. The analysis is based on the deficiencies and potential risks of the network's existing defense technology, characteristics of cyber attacks, and network security technologies. Subsequently, a distributed network security architecture using the technology of an intrusion prevention system is designed and implemented. In this paper, first, the overall design approach is presented. This design is used as the basis to establish a network defense model, an improvement over the traditional single-technology model that addresses the latter's inadequacies. Next, a distributed network security architecture is implemented, comprising a hybrid firewall, intrusion detection, virtual honeynet projects, and connectivity and interactivity between these three components. Finally, the proposed security system is tested. A statistical analysis of the test results verifies the feasibility and reliability of the proposed architecture. The findings of this study will potentially provide new ideas and stimuli for future designs of network security architecture.

  5. Surface Water Quality Evaluation Based on a Game Theory-Based Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Yang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Water quality evaluation is an essential measure to analyze water quality. However, excessive randomness and fuzziness affect the process of evaluation, thus reducing the accuracy of evaluation. Therefore, this study proposed a cloud model for evaluating the water quality to alleviate this problem. Analytic hierarchy process and entropy theory were used to calculate the subjective weight and objective weight, respectively, and then they were coupled as a combination weight (CW via game theory. The proposed game theory-based cloud model (GCM was then applied to the Qixinggang section of the Beijiang River. The results show that the CW ranks fecal coliform as the most important factor, followed by total nitrogen and total phosphorus, while biochemical oxygen demand and fluoride were considered least important. There were 19 months (31.67% at grade I, 39 months (65.00% at grade II, and one month at grade IV and grade V during 2010–2014. A total of 52 months (86.6% of GCM were identical to the comprehensive evaluation result (CER. The obtained water quality grades of GCM are close to the grades of the analytic hierarchy process weight (AHPW due to the weight coefficient of AHPW set to 0.7487. Generally, one or two grade gaps exist among the results of the three groups of weights, suggesting that the index weight is not particularly sensitive to the cloud model. The evaluated accuracy of water quality can be improved by modifying the quantitative boundaries. This study could provide a reference for water quality evaluation, prevention, and improvement of water quality assessment and other applications.

  6. Evaluating Computer-Based Assessment in a Risk-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrzewski, Stan; Steven, Christine; Ricketts, Chris

    2009-01-01

    There are three purposes for evaluation: evaluation for action to aid the decision making process, evaluation for understanding to further enhance enlightenment and evaluation for control to ensure compliance to standards. This article argues that the primary function of evaluation in the "Catherine Wheel" computer-based assessment (CBA)…

  7. An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) During the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hart, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...

  8. Nitrous Oxide Production in a Granule-based Partial Nitritation Reactor: A Model-based Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Lai; Sun, Jing; Liu, Yiwen; Dai, Xiaohu; Ni, Bing-Jie

    2017-04-03

    Sustainable wastewater treatment has been attracting increasing attentions over the past decades. However, the production of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent GHG, from the energy-efficient granule-based autotrophic nitrogen removal is largely unknown. This study applied a previously established N 2 O model, which incorporated two N 2 O production pathways by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) (AOB denitrification and the hydroxylamine (NH 2 OH) oxidation). The two-pathway model was used to describe N 2 O production from a granule-based partial nitritation (PN) reactor and provide insights into the N 2 O distribution inside granules. The model was evaluated by comparing simulation results with N 2 O monitoring profiles as well as isotopic measurement data from the PN reactor. The model demonstrated its good predictive ability against N 2 O dynamics and provided useful information about the shift of N 2 O production pathways inside granules for the first time. The simulation results indicated that the increase of oxygen concentration and granule size would significantly enhance N 2 O production. The results further revealed a linear relationship between N 2 O production and ammonia oxidation rate (AOR) (R 2  = 0.99) under the conditions of varying oxygen levels and granule diameters, suggesting that bulk oxygen and granule size may exert an indirect effect on N 2 O production by causing a change in AOR.

  9. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of interuniversity collaborative learning based on network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenhui, Ma; Yu, Wang

    2017-06-01

    Learning evaluation is an effective method, which plays an important role in the network education evaluation system. But most of the current network learning evaluation methods still use traditional university education evaluation system, which do not take into account of web-based learning characteristics, and they are difficult to fit the rapid development of interuniversity collaborative learning based on network. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate interuniversity collaborative learning based on the combination of fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process. Analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of evaluation factors of each layer and to carry out the consistency check. According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, we establish interuniversity collaborative learning evaluation mathematical model. The proposed scheme provides a new thought for interuniversity collaborative learning evaluation based on network.

  10. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of interuniversity collaborative learning based on network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenhui Ma

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning evaluation is an effective method, which plays an important role in the network education evaluation system. But most of the current network learning evaluation methods still use traditional university education evaluation system, which do not take into account of web-based learning characteristics, and they are difficult to fit the rapid development of interuniversity collaborative learning based on network. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate interuniversity collaborative learning based on the combination of fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process. Analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of evaluation factors of each layer and to carry out the consistency check. According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, we establish interuniversity collaborative learning evaluation mathematical model. The proposed scheme provides a new thought for interuniversity collaborative learning evaluation based on network.

  11. Operator model-based design and evaluation of advanced systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schryver, J.C.

    1988-01-01

    A multi-level operator modeling approach is recommended to provide broad support for the integrated design of advanced control and protection systems for new nuclear power plants. Preliminary design should address the symbiosis of automated systems and human operator by giving careful attention to the roles assigned to these two system elements. A conceptual model of the operator role is developed in the context of a command control-communication problem. According to this approach, joint responsibility can be realized in at least two ways: sharing or allocation. The inherent stabilities of different regions of the operator role space are considered

  12. Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawlor, Jennifer A; McGirr, Sara

    2017-12-01

    Recently, systems thinking and systems science approaches have gained popularity in the field of evaluation; however, there has been relatively little exploration of how evaluators could use quantitative tools to assist in the implementation of systems approaches therein. The purpose of this paper is to explore potential uses of one such quantitative tool, agent-based modeling, in evaluation practice. To this end, we define agent-based modeling and offer potential uses for it in typical evaluation activities, including: engaging stakeholders, selecting an intervention, modeling program theory, setting performance targets, and interpreting evaluation results. We provide demonstrative examples from published agent-based modeling efforts both inside and outside the field of evaluation for each of the evaluative activities discussed. We further describe potential pitfalls of this tool and offer cautions for evaluators who may chose to implement it in their practice. Finally, the article concludes with a discussion of the future of agent-based modeling in evaluation practice and a call for more formal exploration of this tool as well as other approaches to simulation modeling in the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Evaluation of template-based models in CASP8 with standard measures

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Fidelis, Krzysztof; Moult, John; Rost, Burkhard; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    The strategy for evaluating template-based models submitted to CASP has continuously evolved from CASP1 to CASP5, leading to a standard procedure that has been used in all subsequent editions. The established approach includes methods

  14. Evaluation model based on FAHP for nuclear power project contract performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Bohang; Cheng Jing

    2012-01-01

    Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation is a common tool to analyze comprehensive integration. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is an improvement for Analytic Hierarchy Process. Firstly the paper pointed out the concept of FAHP, and then used FAHP to setup an evaluation system model for nuclear power project contract performance. Based on this model, all the evaluation factors were assigned to different weightiness. By weighting the score of each factor, output would be the result which could evaluate the contract performance. On the basis of the research, the paper gave the principle of evaluating contract performance of nuclear power suppliers, which can assure the procurement process. (authors)

  15. Research on Evaluation Model for Secondary Task Driving Safety Based on Driver Eye Movements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisheng Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was designed to gain insight into the influence of performing different types of secondary task while driving on driver eye movements and to build a safety evaluation model for secondary task driving. Eighteen young drivers were selected and completed the driving experiment on a driving simulator. Measures of fixations, saccades, and blinks were analyzed. Based on measures which had significant difference between the baseline and secondary tasks driving conditions, the evaluation index system was built. Method of principal component analysis (PCA was applied to analyze evaluation indexes data in order to obtain the coefficient weights of indexes and build the safety evaluation model. Based on evaluation scores, the driving safety was grouped into five levels (very high, high, average, low, and very low using K-means clustering algorithm. Results showed that secondary task driving severely distracts the driver and the evaluation model built in this study could estimate driving safety effectively under different driving conditions.

  16. How Feedback Can Improve Managerial Evaluations of Model-based Marketing Decision Support Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    U. Kayande (Ujwal); A. de Bruyn (Arnoud); G.L. Lilien (Gary); A. Rangaswamy (Arvind); G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMarketing managers often provide much poorer evaluations of model-based marketing decision support systems (MDSSs) than are warranted by the objective performance of those systems. We show that a reason for this discrepant evaluation may be that MDSSs are often not designed to help users

  17. A framework for performance evaluation of model-based optical trackers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, F.A.; Liere, van R.

    2008-01-01

    We describe a software framework to evaluate the performance of model-based optical trackers in virtual environments. The framework can be used to evaluate and compare the performance of different trackers under various conditions, to study the effects of varying intrinsic and extrinsic camera

  18. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  19. Evaluation of Student Models on Current Socio-Scientific Topics Based on System Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuhoglu, Hasret

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to 1) enable primary school students to develop models that will help them understand and analyze a system, through a learning process based on system dynamics approach, 2) examine and evaluate students' models related to socio-scientific issues using certain criteria. The research method used is a case study. The study sample…

  20. Evaluation of template-based models in CASP8 with standard measures

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The strategy for evaluating template-based models submitted to CASP has continuously evolved from CASP1 to CASP5, leading to a standard procedure that has been used in all subsequent editions. The established approach includes methods for calculating the quality of each individual model, for assigning scores based on the distribution of the results for each target and for computing the statistical significance of the differences in scores between prediction methods. These data are made available to the assessor of the template-based modeling category, who uses them as a starting point for further evaluations and analyses. This article describes the detailed workflow of the procedure, provides justifications for a number of choices that are customarily made for CASP data evaluation, and reports the results of the analysis of template-based predictions at CASP8.

  1. Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

    2011-01-01

    Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

  2. A QFD-Based Evaluation Method for Business Models of Product Service Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianyang Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizations have been approaching Product Service Systems (PSS in unoptimized business model fashions. This is partially because there is ineffective evaluation of PSS business models. Therefore, a more sufficient evaluation method might advance the evaluation of PSS business models and assist organizations that are considering a servitisation strategy. In this paper, we develop a value oriented method by using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD technique to employ correlations derived from the design information of PSS business models to evaluate these PSS business models. We describe the method applying steps and its practical application in a real life case study. This method improves the formulation of an evaluation step within a design process of PSS business models based on correlations of different dimensions of the PSS value and PSS business models; it allows a balance between the customer value and organization value that are delivered by PSS business models to be made quantitatively. Finally, it fosters the effective utilization of the design information accumulated in the earlier part of the design process to quantitatively evaluate whether a PSS business model is optimized for providing appropriate values for customers and organizations.

  3. Occupant feedback based model predictive control for thermal comfort and energy optimization: A chamber experimental evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Xiao; Wang, Qian; Srebric, Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • This study evaluates an occupant-feedback driven Model Predictive Controller (MPC). • The MPC adjusts indoor temperature based on a dynamic thermal sensation (DTS) model. • A chamber model for predicting chamber air temperature is developed and validated. • Experiments show that MPC using DTS performs better than using Predicted Mean Vote. - Abstract: In current centralized building climate control, occupants do not have much opportunity to intervene the automated control system. This study explores the benefit of using thermal comfort feedback from occupants in the model predictive control (MPC) design based on a novel dynamic thermal sensation (DTS) model. This DTS model based MPC was evaluated in chamber experiments. A hierarchical structure for thermal control was adopted in the chamber experiments. At the high level, an MPC controller calculates the optimal supply air temperature of the chamber heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, using the feedback of occupants’ votes on thermal sensation. At the low level, the actual supply air temperature is controlled by the chiller/heater using a PI control to achieve the optimal set point. This DTS-based MPC was also compared to an MPC designed based on the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) model for thermal sensation. The experiment results demonstrated that the DTS-based MPC using occupant feedback allows significant energy saving while maintaining occupant thermal comfort compared to the PMV-based MPC.

  4. Evaluation of Model Based State of Charge Estimation Methods for Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongyue Zou

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Four model-based State of Charge (SOC estimation methods for lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries are studied and evaluated in this paper. Different from existing literatures, this work evaluates different aspects of the SOC estimation, such as the estimation error distribution, the estimation rise time, the estimation time consumption, etc. The equivalent model of the battery is introduced and the state function of the model is deduced. The four model-based SOC estimation methods are analyzed first. Simulations and experiments are then established to evaluate the four methods. The urban dynamometer driving schedule (UDDS current profiles are applied to simulate the drive situations of an electrified vehicle, and a genetic algorithm is utilized to identify the model parameters to find the optimal parameters of the model of the Li-ion battery. The simulations with and without disturbance are carried out and the results are analyzed. A battery test workbench is established and a Li-ion battery is applied to test the hardware in a loop experiment. Experimental results are plotted and analyzed according to the four aspects to evaluate the four model-based SOC estimation methods.

  5. Reliability Evaluation for the Surface to Air Missile Weapon Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Jianjun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The fuzziness and randomness is integrated by using digital characteristics, such as Expected value, Entropy and Hyper entropy. The cloud model adapted to reliability evaluation is put forward based on the concept of the surface to air missile weapon. The cloud scale of the qualitative evaluation is constructed, and the quantitative variable and the qualitative variable in the system reliability evaluation are corresponded. The practical calculation result shows that it is more effective to analyze the reliability of the surface to air missile weapon by this way. The practical calculation result also reflects the model expressed by cloud theory is more consistent with the human thinking style of uncertainty.

  6. A Course Evaluation Tool Based on SPICES Model, and its Application to Evaluation of Medical Pharmacology Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahereh Changiz

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Background and purpose: The SPICES model has been proposed to be used both as a framework for quality improvement in medical education and as a guide for evaluation of curricula. The six strategies of SPICES are representatives of innovative approaches to medical education, and each one has been considered as a continuum. The present study models a theory-based questionnaire, based on SPICES, to be used as a course evaluation tool, through developing a conceptual model for eachcontinuum of the six.Methods: At the first step, operational definition and questionnaire development was performed as an extensive literature review and consensus building in a focus groups of experts .The content andface validity of questionnaire was confirmed. In the second phase-as a pilot -, the questionnaire was used for evaluation of Medical Pharmacology course at Isfahan University of Medical Sciences.Results: The results showed that Medical Pharmacology course located in the traditional end of SPICES continua according to the most aspects of the course.Conclusion: The pilot study showed that the questionnaire scale should be changed. Also it may be more feasible and valid if an item bank is prepared based on the proposed matrix and appropriate items are selected according to the general situation of the curriculum.Keywords: SPICES MODEL, EVALUATION

  7. Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, T.; Santanello, J.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W.-K.; Wu, D.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kemp, E.; Chin, M.; Starr, D.; Sekiguchi, M.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.

  8. Automated Text Analysis Based on Skip-Gram Model for Food Evaluation in Predicting Consumer Acceptance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Augustine Yongwhi; Ha, Jin Gwan; Choi, Hoduk; Moon, Hyeonjoon

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate food taste, smell, and characteristics from consumers' online reviews. Several studies in food sensory evaluation have been presented for consumer acceptance. However, these studies need taste descriptive word lexicon, and they are not suitable for analyzing large number of evaluators to predict consumer acceptance. In this paper, an automated text analysis method for food evaluation is presented to analyze and compare recently introduced two jjampong ramen types (mixed seafood noodles). To avoid building a sensory word lexicon, consumers' reviews are collected from SNS. Then, by training word embedding model with acquired reviews, words in the large amount of review text are converted into vectors. Based on these words represented as vectors, inference is performed to evaluate taste and smell of two jjampong ramen types. Finally, the reliability and merits of the proposed food evaluation method are confirmed by a comparison with the results from an actual consumer preference taste evaluation.

  9. Automated Text Analysis Based on Skip-Gram Model for Food Evaluation in Predicting Consumer Acceptance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augustine Yongwhi Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to evaluate food taste, smell, and characteristics from consumers’ online reviews. Several studies in food sensory evaluation have been presented for consumer acceptance. However, these studies need taste descriptive word lexicon, and they are not suitable for analyzing large number of evaluators to predict consumer acceptance. In this paper, an automated text analysis method for food evaluation is presented to analyze and compare recently introduced two jjampong ramen types (mixed seafood noodles. To avoid building a sensory word lexicon, consumers’ reviews are collected from SNS. Then, by training word embedding model with acquired reviews, words in the large amount of review text are converted into vectors. Based on these words represented as vectors, inference is performed to evaluate taste and smell of two jjampong ramen types. Finally, the reliability and merits of the proposed food evaluation method are confirmed by a comparison with the results from an actual consumer preference taste evaluation.

  10. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  11. Reviewing the Concept of Brand Equity and Evaluating Consumer-Based Brand Equity (CBBE) Models

    OpenAIRE

    Sanaz Farjam; Xu Hongyi

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of brand equity and discuss its different perspectives, we try to review existing literature of brand equity and evaluate various Customer-based brand equity models to provide a collection from well-known databases for further research in this area.Classification-JEL: M00

  12. Function-based payment model for inpatient medical rehabilitation: an evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, J P; DeJong, G; Wilkerson, D

    1996-07-01

    To describe the components of a function-based prospective payment model for inpatient medical rehabilitation that parallels diagnosis-related groups (DRGs), to evaluate this model in relation to stakeholder objectives, and to detail the components of a quality of care incentive program that, when combined with this payment model, creates an incentive for provides to maximize functional outcomes. This article describes a conceptual model, involving no data collection or data synthesis. The basic payment model described parallels DRGs. Information on the potential impact of this model on medical rehabilitation is gleaned from the literature evaluating the impact of DRGs. The conceptual model described is evaluated against the results of a Delphi Survey of rehabilitation providers, consumers, policymakers, and researchers previously conducted by members of the research team. The major shortcoming of a function-based prospective payment model for inpatient medical rehabilitation is that it contains no inherent incentive to maximize functional outcomes. Linkage of reimbursement to outcomes, however, by withholding a fixed proportion of the standard FRG payment amount, placing that amount in a "quality of care" pool, and distributing that pool annually among providers whose predesignated, facility-level, case-mix-adjusted outcomes are attained, may be one strategy for maximizing outcome goals.

  13. Study on dynamic team performance evaluation methodology based on team situation awareness model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Suk Chul

    2005-02-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to provide a theoretical framework and its evaluation methodology of team dynamic task performance of operating team at nuclear power plant under the dynamic and tactical environment such as radiological accident. This thesis suggested a team dynamic task performance evaluation model so called team crystallization model stemmed from Endsely's situation awareness model being comprised of four elements: state, information, organization, and orientation and its quantification methods using system dynamics approach and a communication process model based on a receding horizon control approach. The team crystallization model is a holistic approach for evaluating the team dynamic task performance in conjunction with team situation awareness considering physical system dynamics and team behavioral dynamics for a tactical and dynamic task at nuclear power plant. This model provides a systematic measure to evaluate time-dependent team effectiveness or performance affected by multi-agents such as plant states, communication quality in terms of transferring situation-specific information and strategies for achieving the team task goal at given time, and organizational factors. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and its quantification method, the case study was carried out using the data obtained from a full-scope power plant simulator for 1,000MWe pressurized water reactors with four on-the-job operating groups and one expert group who knows accident sequences. Simulated results team dynamic task performance with reference key plant parameters behavior and team-specific organizational center of gravity and cue-and-response matrix illustrated good symmetry with observed value. The team crystallization model will be useful and effective tool for evaluating team effectiveness in terms of recruiting new operating team for new plant as cost-benefit manner. Also, this model can be utilized as a systematic analysis tool for

  14. Study on dynamic team performance evaluation methodology based on team situation awareness model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Suk Chul

    2005-02-15

    The purpose of this thesis is to provide a theoretical framework and its evaluation methodology of team dynamic task performance of operating team at nuclear power plant under the dynamic and tactical environment such as radiological accident. This thesis suggested a team dynamic task performance evaluation model so called team crystallization model stemmed from Endsely's situation awareness model being comprised of four elements: state, information, organization, and orientation and its quantification methods using system dynamics approach and a communication process model based on a receding horizon control approach. The team crystallization model is a holistic approach for evaluating the team dynamic task performance in conjunction with team situation awareness considering physical system dynamics and team behavioral dynamics for a tactical and dynamic task at nuclear power plant. This model provides a systematic measure to evaluate time-dependent team effectiveness or performance affected by multi-agents such as plant states, communication quality in terms of transferring situation-specific information and strategies for achieving the team task goal at given time, and organizational factors. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and its quantification method, the case study was carried out using the data obtained from a full-scope power plant simulator for 1,000MWe pressurized water reactors with four on-the-job operating groups and one expert group who knows accident sequences. Simulated results team dynamic task performance with reference key plant parameters behavior and team-specific organizational center of gravity and cue-and-response matrix illustrated good symmetry with observed value. The team crystallization model will be useful and effective tool for evaluating team effectiveness in terms of recruiting new operating team for new plant as cost-benefit manner. Also, this model can be utilized as a systematic analysis tool for

  15. Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model - a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendiguren, Gorka; Koch, Julian; Stisen, Simon

    2017-11-01

    Distributed hydrological models are traditionally evaluated against discharge stations, emphasizing the temporal and neglecting the spatial component of a model. The present study widens the traditional paradigm by highlighting spatial patterns of evapotranspiration (ET), a key variable at the land-atmosphere interface, obtained from two different approaches at the national scale of Denmark. The first approach is based on a national water resources model (DK-model), using the MIKE-SHE model code, and the second approach utilizes a two-source energy balance model (TSEB) driven mainly by satellite remote sensing data. Ideally, the hydrological model simulation and remote-sensing-based approach should present similar spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of ET. However, the spatial comparison showed that the differences are significant and indicate insufficient spatial pattern performance of the hydrological model.The differences in spatial patterns can partly be explained by the fact that the hydrological model is configured to run in six domains that are calibrated independently from each other, as it is often the case for large-scale multi-basin calibrations. Furthermore, the model incorporates predefined temporal dynamics of leaf area index (LAI), root depth (RD) and crop coefficient (Kc) for each land cover type. This zonal approach of model parameterization ignores the spatiotemporal complexity of the natural system. To overcome this limitation, this study features a modified version of the DK-model in which LAI, RD and Kc are empirically derived using remote sensing data and detailed soil property maps in order to generate a higher degree of spatiotemporal variability and spatial consistency between the six domains. The effects of these changes are analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to evaluate spatial patterns. The EOF analysis shows that including remote-sensing-derived LAI, RD and Kc in the distributed hydrological model adds

  16. Model-based economic evaluation in Alzheimer's disease: a review of the methods available to model Alzheimer's disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Colin; Shearer, James; Ritchie, Craig W; Zajicek, John P

    2011-01-01

    To consider the methods available to model Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression over time to inform on the structure and development of model-based evaluations, and the future direction of modelling methods in AD. A systematic search of the health care literature was undertaken to identify methods to model disease progression in AD. Modelling methods are presented in a descriptive review. The literature search identified 42 studies presenting methods or applications of methods to model AD progression over time. The review identified 10 general modelling frameworks available to empirically model the progression of AD as part of a model-based evaluation. Seven of these general models are statistical models predicting progression of AD using a measure of cognitive function. The main concerns with models are on model structure, around the limited characterization of disease progression, and on the use of a limited number of health states to capture events related to disease progression over time. None of the available models have been able to present a comprehensive model of the natural history of AD. Although helpful, there are serious limitations in the methods available to model progression of AD over time. Advances are needed to better model the progression of AD and the effects of the disease on peoples' lives. Recent evidence supports the need for a multivariable approach to the modelling of AD progression, and indicates that a latent variable analytic approach to characterising AD progression is a promising avenue for advances in the statistical development of modelling methods. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Prashant; Bansod, Baban K.S.; Debnath, Sanjit K.; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Ghanshyam, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models have been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper

  18. Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Bansod, Baban K.S.; Debnath, Sanjit K. [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Thakur, Praveen Kumar [Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (ISRO), Dehradun 248001 (India); Ghanshyam, C. [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India)

    2015-02-15

    Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models have been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.

  19. Catchment area-based evaluation of the AMC-dependent SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, S. K.; Jain, M. K.; Pandey, R. P.; Singh, V. P.

    2005-09-01

    Using a large set of rainfall-runoff data from 234 watersheds in the USA, a catchment area-based evaluation of the modified version of the Mishra and Singh (2002a) model was performed. The model is based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) methodology and incorporates the antecedent moisture in computation of direct surface runoff. Comparison with the existing SCS-CN method showed that the modified version performed better than did the existing one on the data of all seven area-based groups of watersheds ranging from 0.01 to 310.3 km2.

  20. Model-Based Approach to the Evaluation of Task Complexity in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ham, Dong Han

    2007-02-01

    This study developed a model-based method for evaluating task complexity and examined the ways of evaluating the complexity of tasks designed for abnormal situations and daily task situations in NPPs. The main results of this study can be summarised as follows. First, this study developed a conceptual framework for studying complexity factors and a model of complexity factors that classifies complexity factors according to the types of knowledge that human operators use. Second, this study developed a more practical model of task complexity factors and identified twenty-one complexity factors based on the model. The model emphasizes that a task is a system to be designed and its complexity has several dimensions. Third, we developed a method of identifying task complexity factors and evaluating task complexity qualitatively based on the developed model of task complexity factors. This method can be widely used in various task situations. Fourth, this study examined the applicability of TACOM to abnormal situations and daily task situations, such as maintenance and confirmed that it can be reasonably used in those situations. Fifth, we developed application examples to demonstrate the use of the theoretical results of this study. Lastly, this study reinterpreted well-know principles for designing information displays in NPPs in terms of task complexity and suggested a way of evaluating the conceptual design of displays in an analytical way by using the concept of task complexity. All of the results of this study will be used as a basis when evaluating the complexity of tasks designed on procedures or information displays and designing ways of improving human performance in NPPs

  1. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  2. Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin

    2016-02-01

    Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.

  3. Discrete Model Predictive Control-Based Maximum Power Point Tracking for PV Systems: Overview and Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lashab, Abderezak; Sera, Dezso; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2018-01-01

    The main objective of this work is to provide an overview and evaluation of discrete model predictive controlbased maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for PV systems. A large number of MPC based MPPT methods have been recently introduced in the literature with very promising performance, however......, an in-depth investigation and comparison of these methods have not been carried out yet. Therefore, this paper has set out to provide an in-depth analysis and evaluation of MPC based MPPT methods applied to various common power converter topologies. The performance of MPC based MPPT is directly linked...... with the converter topology, and it is also affected by the accurate determination of the converter parameters, sensitivity to converter parameter variations is also investigated. The static and dynamic performance of the trackers are assessed according to the EN 50530 standard, using detailed simulation models...

  4. Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Treatments for Depression: A Systematic Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolovos, Spyros; Bosmans, Judith E.; Riper, Heleen

    2017-01-01

    eligible if they used a health economic model with quality-adjusted life-years or disability-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure. Data related to various methodological characteristics were extracted from the included studies. The available modelling techniques were evaluated based on 11 predefined......, and DES models in seven.ConclusionThere were substantial methodological differences between the studies. Since the individual history of each patient is important for the prognosis of depression, DES and ISM simulation methods may be more appropriate than the others for a pragmatic representation...

  5. A Self-adaptive Dynamic Evaluation Model for Diabetes Mellitus, Based on Evolutionary Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An-Jiang Lu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate diabetes mellitus objectively and accurately, this paper builds a self-adaptive dynamic evaluation model for diabetes mellitus, based on evolutionary strategies. First of all, on the basis of a formalized description of the evolutionary process of diabetes syndromes, using a state transition function, it judges whether a disease is evolutionary, through an excitation parameter. It then, provides evidence for the rebuilding of the evaluation index system. After that, by abstracting and rebuilding the composition of evaluation indexes, it makes use of a heuristic algorithm to determine the composition of the evolved evaluation index set of diabetes mellitus, It then, calculates the weight of each index in the evolved evaluation index set of diabetes mellitus by building a dependency matrix and realizes the self-adaptive dynamic evaluation of diabetes mellitus under an evolutionary environment. Using this evaluation model, it is possible to, quantify all kinds of diagnoses and treatment experiences of diabetes and finally to adopt ideal diagnoses and treatment measures for different patients with diabetics.

  6. Developing evaluation instrument based on CIPP models on the implementation of portfolio assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnia, Feni; Rosana, Dadan; Supahar

    2017-08-01

    This study aimed to develop an evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model on the implementation of portfolio assessment in science learning. This study used research and development (R & D) method; adapting 4-D by the development of non-test instrument, and the evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model. CIPP is the abbreviation of Context, Input, Process, and Product. The techniques of data collection were interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Data collection instruments were: 1) the interview guidelines for the analysis of the problems and the needs, 2) questionnaire to see level of accomplishment of portfolio assessment instrument, and 3) observation sheets for teacher and student to dig up responses to the portfolio assessment instrument. The data obtained was quantitative data obtained from several validators. The validators consist of two lecturers as the evaluation experts, two practitioners (science teachers), and three colleagues. This paper shows the results of content validity obtained from the validators and the analysis result of the data obtained by using Aikens' V formula. The results of this study shows that the evaluation instrument based on CIPP models is proper to evaluate the implementation of portfolio assessment instruments. Based on the experts' judgments, practitioners, and colleagues, the Aikens' V coefficient was between 0.86-1,00 which means that it is valid and can be used in the limited trial and operational field trial.

  7. Evidence used in model-based economic evaluations for evaluating pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests: a systematic review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Jaime L; Cooper, Chris; Buchanan, James

    2015-11-11

    Decision models can be used to conduct economic evaluations of new pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests to ensure they offer value for money to healthcare systems. These models require a great deal of evidence, yet research suggests the evidence used is diverse and of uncertain quality. By conducting a systematic review, we aim to investigate the test-related evidence used to inform decision models developed for the economic evaluation of genetic tests. We will search electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS EEDs to identify model-based economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests. The search will not be limited by language or date. Title and abstract screening will be conducted independently by 2 reviewers, with screening of full texts and data extraction conducted by 1 reviewer, and checked by another. Characteristics of the decision problem, the decision model and the test evidence used to inform the model will be extracted. Specifically, we will identify the reported evidence sources for the test-related evidence used, describe the study design and how the evidence was identified. A checklist developed specifically for decision analytic models will be used to critically appraise the models described in these studies. Variations in the test evidence used in the decision models will be explored across the included studies, and we will identify gaps in the evidence in terms of both quantity and quality. The findings of this work will be disseminated via a peer-reviewed journal publication and at national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  8. Protein structure modelling and evaluation based on a 4-distance description of side-chain interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inbar Yuval

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate evaluation and modelling of residue-residue interactions within and between proteins is a key aspect of computational structure prediction including homology modelling, protein-protein docking, refinement of low-resolution structures, and computational protein design. Results Here we introduce a method for accurate protein structure modelling and evaluation based on a novel 4-distance description of residue-residue interaction geometry. Statistical 4-distance preferences were extracted from high-resolution protein structures and were used as a basis for a knowledge-based potential, called Hunter. We demonstrate that 4-distance description of side chain interactions can be used reliably to discriminate the native structure from a set of decoys. Hunter ranked the native structure as the top one in 217 out of 220 high-resolution decoy sets, in 25 out of 28 "Decoys 'R' Us" decoy sets and in 24 out of 27 high-resolution CASP7/8 decoy sets. The same concept was applied to side chain modelling in protein structures. On a set of very high-resolution protein structures the average RMSD was 1.47 Å for all residues and 0.73 Å for buried residues, which is in the range of attainable accuracy for a model. Finally, we show that Hunter performs as good or better than other top methods in homology modelling based on results from the CASP7 experiment. The supporting web site http://bioinfo.weizmann.ac.il/hunter/ was developed to enable the use of Hunter and for visualization and interactive exploration of 4-distance distributions. Conclusions Our results suggest that Hunter can be used as a tool for evaluation and for accurate modelling of residue-residue interactions in protein structures. The same methodology is applicable to other areas involving high-resolution modelling of biomolecules.

  9. Persuasion Model and Its Evaluation Based on Positive Change Degree of Agent Emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinghua, Wu; Wenguang, Lu; Hailiang, Meng

    For it can meet needs of negotiation among organizations take place in different time and place, and for it can make its course more rationality and result more ideal, persuasion based on agent can improve cooperation among organizations well. Integrated emotion change in agent persuasion can further bring agent advantage of artificial intelligence into play. Emotion of agent persuasion is classified, and the concept of positive change degree is given. Based on this, persuasion model based on positive change degree of agent emotion is constructed, which is explained clearly through an example. Finally, the method of relative evaluation is given, which is also verified through a calculation example.

  10. Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

    2015-01-01

    The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

  11. An evaluation of the hemiplegic subject based on the Bobath approach. Part I: The model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarna, F; Corriveau, H; Chamberland, J; Arsenault, A B; Dutil, E; Drouin, G

    1988-01-01

    An evaluation, based on the Bobath approach to treatment has been developed. A model, substantiating this evaluation is presented. In this model, the three stages of motor recovery presented by Bobath have been extended to six, to better follow the progression of the patient. Six parameters have also been identified. These are the elements to be quantified so that the progress of the patient through the stages of motor recovery can be followed. Four of these parameters are borrowed from the Bobath approach, that is: postural reaction, muscle tone, reflex activity and active movement. Two have been added: sensorium and pain. An accompanying paper presents the evaluation protocol along with the operational definition of each of these parameters.

  12. Computational electromagnetics and model-based inversion a modern paradigm for eddy-current nondestructive evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Sabbagh, Harold A; Sabbagh, Elias H; Aldrin, John C; Knopp, Jeremy S

    2013-01-01

    Computational Electromagnetics and Model-Based Inversion: A Modern Paradigm for Eddy Current Nondestructive Evaluation describes the natural marriage of the computer to eddy-current NDE. Three distinct topics are emphasized in the book: (a) fundamental mathematical principles of volume-integral equations as a subset of computational electromagnetics, (b) mathematical algorithms applied to signal-processing and inverse scattering problems, and (c) applications of these two topics to problems in which real and model data are used. By showing how mathematics and the computer can solve problems more effectively than current analog practices, this book defines the modern technology of eddy-current NDE. This book will be useful to advanced students and practitioners in the fields of computational electromagnetics, electromagnetic inverse-scattering theory, nondestructive evaluation, materials evaluation and biomedical imaging. Users of eddy-current NDE technology in industries as varied as nuclear power, aerospace,...

  13. Addressing issues associated with evaluating prediction models for survival endpoints based on the concordance statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming; Long, Qi

    2016-09-01

    Prediction models for disease risk and prognosis play an important role in biomedical research, and evaluating their predictive accuracy in the presence of censored data is of substantial interest. The standard concordance (c) statistic has been extended to provide a summary measure of predictive accuracy for survival models. Motivated by a prostate cancer study, we address several issues associated with evaluating survival prediction models based on c-statistic with a focus on estimators using the technique of inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). Compared to the existing work, we provide complete results on the asymptotic properties of the IPCW estimators under the assumption of coarsening at random (CAR), and propose a sensitivity analysis under the mechanism of noncoarsening at random (NCAR). In addition, we extend the IPCW approach as well as the sensitivity analysis to high-dimensional settings. The predictive accuracy of prediction models for cancer recurrence after prostatectomy is assessed by applying the proposed approaches. We find that the estimated predictive accuracy for the models in consideration is sensitive to NCAR assumption, and thus identify the best predictive model. Finally, we further evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in both settings of low-dimensional and high-dimensional data under CAR and NCAR through simulations. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  14. Does the Model of Evaluation Based on Fair Value Answer the Requests of Financial Information Users?

    OpenAIRE

    Mitea Neluta; Sarac Aldea Laura

    2010-01-01

    Does the model of evaluation based on the fair value answers the requests of the financial information users? The financial situations have as purposes the presentation of the information concerning the enterprise financial position, the performances and modifications of this position which, according to IASB and FASB, must be credible and useful. Both referential maintain the existence of several conventions regarding assessment, like historical cost, actual cost, the realizable value or act...

  15. A Novel OBDD-Based Reliability Evaluation Algorithm for Wireless Sensor Networks on the Multicast Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongshuai Yan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-terminal reliability calculation for wireless sensor networks (WSNs is a #P-hard problem. The reliability calculation of WSNs on the multicast model provides an even worse combinatorial explosion of node states with respect to the calculation of WSNs on the unicast model; many real WSNs require the multicast model to deliver information. This research first provides a formal definition for the WSN on the multicast model. Next, a symbolic OBDD_Multicast algorithm is proposed to evaluate the reliability of WSNs on the multicast model. Furthermore, our research on OBDD_Multicast construction avoids the problem of invalid expansion, which reduces the number of subnetworks by identifying the redundant paths of two adjacent nodes and s-t unconnected paths. Experiments show that the OBDD_Multicast both reduces the complexity of the WSN reliability analysis and has a lower running time than Xing’s OBDD- (ordered binary decision diagram- based algorithm.

  16. Evaluation of Intensive Construction Land Use in the Emerging City Based on PSR-Entropy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guangyu

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive understanding of emerging city land utilization and the evaluation of intensive land use in the Emerging City will provide the comprehensive and reliable technical basis for the planning and management. It is an important node. According to the Han cheng from 2008 to 2016 years of land use, based on PSR-Entropy model of land use evaluation system, using entropy method to determine the index weight, the introduction of comprehensive index method to evaluate the degree of land use. The results show that the intensive land use comprehensive evaluation index of Han cheng increased from 2008 to 2015, but the land intensive use can not achieve the standards. The potential of further enhancing space is relatively large.

  17. Spatial Planning and Policy Evaluation in an Urban Conurbation: a Regional Agent-Based Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzius Stricker

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies different functions and relations between 45 agglomerated municipalities in southern Switzerland (Ticino, using a territorial agent-based model. Our research adopts a bottom-up approach to urban systems, considering the agglomeration mechanism and effects of different regional and urban policies, and simulates the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city using an Agent-based model (ABM. Simulating the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city and measuring the resulting system behaviour and outcomes over time, they effectively provide a good test bed for evaluating the impact of different policies. The database is created merging the Swiss official secondary data for one reference year (2011 with Eurostat and OECD-Regpat. The results highlight that the understanding of municipalities’ functions on the territory appears to be essential for designing a solid institutional agglomeration (or city. From a methodological point of view, we contribute to improve the application of territorial ABM. Finally, our results provide a robust base to evaluate in a dynamic way various political interventions, in order to ensure a sustainable development of the agglomeration and the surrounding territories. Applying the analyses and the model on a larger scale, including further regions and conurbations, and including more indicators and variables, to obtain a more detailed and characteristic model, will constitute a further step of the research.

  18. Utilization of two web-based continuing education courses evaluated by Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hao; Lin, Jin-Mann S; Reeves, William C

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate the web structure of two web-based continuing education courses, identify problems and assess the effects of web site modifications. Markov chain models were built from 2008 web usage data to evaluate the courses' web structure and navigation patterns. The web site was then modified to resolve identified design issues and the improvement in user activity over the subsequent 12 months was quantitatively evaluated. Web navigation paths were collected between 2008 and 2010. The probability of navigating from one web page to another was analyzed. The continuing education courses' sequential structure design was clearly reflected in the resulting actual web usage models, and none of the skip transitions provided was heavily used. The web navigation patterns of the two different continuing education courses were similar. Two possible design flaws were identified and fixed in only one of the two courses. Over the following 12 months, the drop-out rate in the modified course significantly decreased from 41% to 35%, but remained unchanged in the unmodified course. The web improvement effects were further verified via a second-order Markov chain model. The results imply that differences in web content have less impact than web structure design on how learners navigate through continuing education courses. Evaluation of user navigation can help identify web design flaws and guide modifications. This study showed that Markov chain models provide a valuable tool to evaluate web-based education courses. Both the results and techniques in this study would be very useful for public health education and research specialists.

  19. Evaluation of soy-based surface active copolymers as surfactant ingredients in model shampoo formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popadyuk, A; Kalita, H; Chisholm, B J; Voronov, A

    2014-12-01

    A new non-toxic soybean oil-based polymeric surfactant (SBPS) for personal-care products was developed and extensively characterized, including an evaluation of the polymeric surfactant performance in model shampoo formulations. To experimentally assure applicability of the soy-based macromolecules in shampoos, either in combination with common anionic surfactants (in this study, sodium lauryl sulfate, SLS) or as a single surface-active ingredient, the testing of SBPS physicochemical properties, performance and visual assessment of SBPS-based model shampoos was carried out. The results obtained, including foaming and cleaning ability of model formulations, were compared to those with only SLS as a surfactant as well as to SLS-free shampoos. Overall, the results show that the presence of SBPS improves cleaning, foaming, and conditioning of model formulations. SBPS-based formulations meet major requirements of multifunctional shampoos - mild detergency, foaming, good conditioning, and aesthetic appeal, which are comparable to commercially available shampoos. In addition, examination of SBPS/SLS mixtures in model shampoos showed that the presence of the SBPS enables the concentration of SLS to be significantly reduced without sacrificing shampoo performance. © 2014 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

  20. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

  1. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-03-27

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  2. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Jin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc., storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  3. Performance evaluation of RANS-based turbulence models in simulating a honeycomb heat sink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subasi, Abdussamet; Ozsipahi, Mustafa; Sahin, Bayram; Gunes, Hasan

    2017-07-01

    As well-known, there is not a universal turbulence model that can be used to model all engineering problems. There are specific applications for each turbulence model that make it appropriate to use, and it is vital to select an appropriate model and wall function combination that matches the physics of the problem considered. Therefore, in this study, performance of six well-known Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes ( RANS) based turbulence models which are the Standard k {{-}} ɛ, the Renormalized Group k- ɛ, the Realizable k- ɛ, the Reynolds Stress Model, the k- ω and the Shear Stress Transport k- ω and accompanying wall functions which are the standard, the non-equilibrium and the enhanced are evaluated via 3D simulation of a honeycomb heat sink. The CutCell method is used to generate grid for the part including heat sink called test section while a hexahedral mesh is employed to discretize to inlet and outlet sections. A grid convergence study is conducted for verification process while experimental data and well-known correlations are used to validate the numerical results. Prediction of pressure drop along the test section, mean base plate temperature of the heat sink and temperature at the test section outlet are regarded as a measure of the performance of employed models and wall functions. The results indicate that selection of turbulence models and wall functions has a great influence on the results and, therefore, need to be selected carefully. Hydraulic and thermal characteristics of the honeycomb heat sink can be determined in a reasonable accuracy using RANS- based turbulence models provided that a suitable turbulence model and wall function combination is selected.

  4. Spatial Modeling of a New Technological Typification in Forestry Based on Multicriteria Evaluation of Skidding Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Synek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The study describes a new system of technological typification in forestry based on multicriteria evaluation of environmentally friendly use of common skidding technologies. A farm tractor, skidder, cable system, forwarder, and forwarder in combination with harvester were selected as model skidding technologies. The proposed model determines one of the four categories in terms of their environmentally friendly use: 1 Fully suitable, 2 Suitable, 3 Unsuitable – not excluded and 4 Unsuitable for every forest stand and individual skidding technology. The Saaty matrix was used to define weights of input parameters for multicriteria evaluation. The selected input parameters included: slope inclination, ground bearing capacity, risk of logging-transportation erosion hazard, presence and size of obstacles, skidding distance, terrain shape and age of stands. Stocking and areal representation of selected tree species were added to the evaluation of forwarder-harvester combination. Different equipment (standard tires, low-pressure tires, wheel tracks and climatic conditions (dry, wet were also taken into account in the evaluation of the model. A multicriteria evaluation was carried out by means of GIS tools in SW ESRI ArcGIS Desktop. The model was applied to the selected experimental territory in the upper part of the basin of the Oskava river and it was verified in different forest stands and terrain conditions in the northern part of the Mendel University Training Forest Enterprise Křtiny. Verification of model results was carried out in randomly selected stands with the overall area representing more than 10% of the total forest area in the experimental territory and more than 8% of the total forest area in the verification territory.

  5. Evaluation of the Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in Chongqing Based on PSR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hanwen; ZHANG; Xinli; MOU; Hui; XIE; Hong; LU; Xingyun; YAN

    2014-01-01

    Through a series of exploration based on PSR framework model,for the purpose of building a suitable Chongqing agricultural nonpoint source pollution evaluation index system model framework,combined with the presence of Chongqing specific agro-environmental issues,we build a agricultural non-point source pollution assessment index system,and then study the agricultural system pressure,agro-environmental status and human response in total 3 major categories,develope an agricultural non-point source pollution evaluation index consisting of 3 criteria indicators and 19 indicators. As can be seen from the analysis,pressures and responses tend to increase and decrease linearly,state and complex have large fluctuations,and their fluctuations are similar mainly due to the elimination of pressures and impact,increasing the impact for agricultural non-point source pollution.

  6. A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muche, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

  7. New geometric design consistency model based on operating speed profiles for road safety evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camacho-Torregrosa, Francisco J; Pérez-Zuriaga, Ana M; Campoy-Ungría, J Manuel; García-García, Alfredo

    2013-12-01

    To assist in the on-going effort to reduce road fatalities as much as possible, this paper presents a new methodology to evaluate road safety in both the design and redesign stages of two-lane rural highways. This methodology is based on the analysis of road geometric design consistency, a value which will be a surrogate measure of the safety level of the two-lane rural road segment. The consistency model presented in this paper is based on the consideration of continuous operating speed profiles. The models used for their construction were obtained by using an innovative GPS-data collection method that is based on continuous operating speed profiles recorded from individual drivers. This new methodology allowed the researchers to observe the actual behavior of drivers and to develop more accurate operating speed models than was previously possible with spot-speed data collection, thereby enabling a more accurate approximation to the real phenomenon and thus a better consistency measurement. Operating speed profiles were built for 33 Spanish two-lane rural road segments, and several consistency measurements based on the global and local operating speed were checked. The final consistency model takes into account not only the global dispersion of the operating speed, but also some indexes that consider both local speed decelerations and speeds over posted speeds as well. For the development of the consistency model, the crash frequency for each study site was considered, which allowed estimating the number of crashes on a road segment by means of the calculation of its geometric design consistency. Consequently, the presented consistency evaluation method is a promising innovative tool that can be used as a surrogate measure to estimate the safety of a road segment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The evaluation model of the enterprise energy efficiency based on DPSR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jin-Yu; Zhao, Xiao-Yu; Sun, Xue-Shan

    2017-05-08

    The reasonable evaluation of the enterprise energy efficiency is an important work in order to reduce the energy consumption. In this paper, an effective energy efficiency evaluation index system is proposed based on DPSR (Driving forces-Pressure-State-Response) with the consideration of the actual situation of enterprises. This index system which covers multi-dimensional indexes of the enterprise energy efficiency can reveal the complete causal chain which includes the "driver forces" and "pressure" of the enterprise energy efficiency "state" caused by the internal and external environment, and the ultimate enterprise energy-saving "response" measures. Furthermore, the ANP (Analytic Network Process) and cloud model are used to calculate the weight of each index and evaluate the energy efficiency level. The analysis of BL Company verifies the feasibility of this index system and also provides an effective way to improve the energy efficiency at last.

  9. Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhe

    2018-03-01

    In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

  10. Neural network ensemble based supplier evaluation model in line with nuclear safety conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yonggang; Chang Baosheng

    2006-01-01

    Nuclear safety is the most critical target for nuclear power plant operation. Besides the rigid operation procedures established, evaluation of suppliers working with plants can be another important aspects. Selection and evaluation of suppliers can be classified with qualitative analysis and quantitative management. The indicators involved are coupled with each other in a very complicated manner, therefore the relevant data show the strong characteristic of non-linearity. The article is based on the research and analysis of the real conditions of the Daya Bay nuclear power plant operation management. Through study and analysis of the information home and abroad, and with reference to the neural network ensemble technology, the supplier evaluation system and model are established as illustrated within the paper, thus to heighten objectivity of the supplier selection. (authors)

  11. Damage Analysis and Evaluation of High Strength Concrete Frame Based on Deformation-Energy Damage Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang-bin Lin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method of characterizing the damage of high strength concrete structures is presented, which is based on the deformation energy double parameters damage model and incorporates both of the main forms of damage by earthquakes: first time damage beyond destruction and energy consumption. Firstly, test data of high strength reinforced concrete (RC columns were evaluated. Then, the relationship between stiffness degradation, strength degradation, and ductility performance was obtained. And an expression for damage in terms of model parameters was determined, as well as the critical input data for the restoring force model to be used in analytical damage evaluation. Experimentally, the unloading stiffness was found to be related to the cycle number. Then, a correction for this changing was applied to better describe the unloading phenomenon and compensate for the shortcomings of structure elastic-plastic time history analysis. The above algorithm was embedded into an IDARC program. Finally, a case study of high strength RC multistory frames was presented. Under various seismic wave inputs, the structural damages were predicted. The damage model and correction algorithm of stiffness unloading were proved to be suitable and applicable in engineering design and damage evaluation of a high strength concrete structure.

  12. Traffic Congestion Evaluation and Signal Control Optimization Based on Wireless Sensor Networks: Model and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the model and algorithms for traffic flow data monitoring and optimal traffic light control based on wireless sensor networks. Given the scenario that sensor nodes are sparsely deployed along the segments between signalized intersections, an analytical model is built using continuum traffic equation and develops the method to estimate traffic parameter with the scattered sensor data. Based on the traffic data and principle of traffic congestion formation, we introduce the congestion factor which can be used to evaluate the real-time traffic congestion status along the segment and to predict the subcritical state of traffic jams. The result is expected to support the timing phase optimization of traffic light control for the purpose of avoiding traffic congestion before its formation. We simulate the traffic monitoring based on the Mobile Century dataset and analyze the performance of traffic light control on VISSIM platform when congestion factor is introduced into the signal timing optimization model. The simulation result shows that this method can improve the spatial-temporal resolution of traffic data monitoring and evaluate traffic congestion status with high precision. It is helpful to remarkably alleviate urban traffic congestion and decrease the average traffic delays and maximum queue length.

  13. Evaluation of mobile ad hoc network reliability using propagation-based link reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmavathy, N.; Chaturvedi, Sanjay K.

    2013-01-01

    A wireless mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a collection of solely independent nodes (that can move randomly around the area of deployment) making the topology highly dynamic; nodes communicate with each other by forming a single hop/multi-hop network and maintain connectivity in decentralized manner. MANET is modelled using geometric random graphs rather than random graphs because the link existence in MANET is a function of the geometric distance between the nodes and the transmission range of the nodes. Among many factors that contribute to the MANET reliability, the reliability of these networks also depends on the robustness of the link between the mobile nodes of the network. Recently, the reliability of such networks has been evaluated for imperfect nodes (transceivers) with binary model of communication links based on the transmission range of the mobile nodes and the distance between them. However, in reality, the probability of successful communication decreases as the signal strength deteriorates due to noise, fading or interference effects even up to the nodes' transmission range. Hence, in this paper, using a propagation-based link reliability model rather than a binary-model with nodes following a known failure distribution to evaluate the network reliability (2TR m , ATR m and AoTR m ) of MANET through Monte Carlo Simulation is proposed. The method is illustrated with an application and some imperative results are also presented

  14. Wind farms providing secondary frequency regulation: Evaluating the performance of model-based receding horizon control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, Carl R.; Meneveau, Charles; Gayme, Dennice F.; Meyers, Johan

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the use of wind farms to provide secondary frequency regulation for a power grid. Our approach uses model-based receding horizon control of a wind farm that is tested using a large eddy simulation (LES) framework. In order to enable real-time implementation, the control actions are computed based on a time-varying one-dimensional wake model. This model describes wake advection and interactions, both of which play an important role in wind farm power production. This controller is implemented in an LES model of an 84-turbine wind farm represented by actuator disk turbine models. Differences between the velocities at each turbine predicted by the wake model and measured in LES are used for closed-loop feedback. The controller is tested on two types of regulation signals, “RegA” and “RegD”, obtained from PJM, an independent system operator in the eastern United States. Composite performance scores, which are used by PJM to qualify plants for regulation, are used to evaluate the performance of the controlled wind farm. Our results demonstrate that the controlled wind farm consistently performs well, passing the qualification threshold for all fastacting RegD signals. For the RegA signal, which changes over slower time scales, the controlled wind farm's average performance surpasses the threshold, but further work is needed to enable the controlled system to achieve qualifying performance all of the time. (paper)

  15. Constructing a Travel Risks’ Evaluation Model for Tour Freelancers Based on the ANP Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Tsai Lin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study constructs a new travel risks’ evaluation model for freelancers to evaluate and select tour groups by considering the interdependencies of the evaluation criteria used. First of all, the proposed model adopts the Nominal Group Technique (NGT to identify suitable evaluation criteria for evaluating travel risks. Six evaluation criteria and 18 subcriteria are obtained. The six evaluation criteria are financial risk, transportation risk, social risk, hygiene risk, sightseeing spot risk, and general risk for freelancer tour groups. Secondly, the model uses the analytic network process (ANP to determine the relative weight of the criteria. Finally, examples of group package tours (GPTs are used to demonstrate the travel risk evaluation process for this model. The results show that the Tokyo GPT is the best group tour. The proposed model helps freelancers to effectively evaluate travel risks and decision-making, making it highly applicable to academia and tour groups.

  16. Evaluation models and evaluation use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contandriopoulos, Damien; Brousselle, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    The use of evaluation results is at the core of evaluation theory and practice. Major debates in the field have emphasized the importance of both the evaluator’s role and the evaluation process itself in fostering evaluation use. A recent systematic review of interventions aimed at influencing policy-making or organizational behavior through knowledge exchange offers a new perspective on evaluation use. We propose here a framework for better understanding the embedded relations between evaluation context, choice of an evaluation model and use of results. The article argues that the evaluation context presents conditions that affect both the appropriateness of the evaluation model implemented and the use of results. PMID:23526460

  17. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Model-Based Design and Evaluation of a Brachiating Monkey Robot with an Active Waist

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Kai-Yuan Lo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We report on the model-based development of a monkey robot that is capable of performing continuous brachiation locomotion on swingable rod, as the intermediate step toward studying brachiation on the soft rope or on horizontal ropes with both ends fixed. The work is different from other previous works where the model or the robot swings on fixed bars. The model, which is composed of two rigid links, was inspired by the dynamic motion of primates. The model further served as the design guideline for a robot that has five degree of freedoms: two on each arm for rod changing and one on the waist to initiate a swing motion. The model was quantitatively formulated, and its dynamic behavior was analyzed in simulation. Further, a two-stage controller was developed within the simulation environment, where the first stage used the natural dynamics of a two-link pendulum-like model, and the second stage used the angular velocity feedback to regulate the waist motion. Finally, the robot was empirically built and evaluated. The experimental results confirm that the robot can perform model-like swing behavior and continuous brachiation locomotion on rods.

  19. Evaluation of AirGIS: a GIS-based air pollution and human exposure modelling system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ketzel, Matthias; Berkowicz, Ruwim; Hvidberg, Martin

    2011-01-01

    This study describes in brief the latest extensions of the Danish Geographic Information System (GIS)-based air pollution and human exposure modelling system (AirGIS), which has been developed in Denmark since 2001 and gives results of an evaluation with measured air pollution data. The system...... shows, in general, a good performance for both long-term averages (annual and monthly averages), short-term averages (hourly and daily) as well as when reproducing spatial variation in air pollution concentrations. Some shortcomings and future perspectives of the system are discussed too....

  20. Evaluation of absorbed doses in voxel-based and simplified models for small animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, A.; Kinase, S.; Saito, K.

    2008-01-01

    Internal dosimetry in non-human biota is desirable from the viewpoint of radiation protection of the environment. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) proposed Reference Animals and Plants using simplified models, such as ellipsoids and spheres and calculated absorbed fractions (AFs) for whole bodies. In this study, photon and electron AFs in whole bodies of voxel-based rat and frog models have been calculated and compared with AFs in the reference models. It was found that the voxel-based and the reference frog (or rat) models can be consistent for the whole-body AFs within a discrepancy of 25 %, as the source was uniformly distributed in the whole body. The specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) and S values were also evaluated in whole bodies and all organs of the voxel-based frog and rat models as the source was distributed in the whole body or skeleton. The results demonstrated that the whole-body SAFs reflect SAFs of all individual organs as the source was uniformly distributed per mass within the whole body by about 30 % uncertainties with exceptions for body contour (up to -40 %) for both electrons and photons due to enhanced radiation leakages, and for the skeleton for photons only (up to +185 %) due to differences in the mass attenuation coefficients. For nuclides such as 90 Y and 90 Sr, which were concentrated in the skeleton, there were large differences between S values in the whole body and those in individual organs, however the whole-body S values for the reference models with the whole body as the source were remarkably similar to those for the voxel-based models with the skeleton as the source, within about 4 and 0.3 %, respectively. It can be stated that whole-body SAFs or S values in simplified models without internal organs are not sufficient for accurate internal dosimetry because they do not reflect SAFs or S values of all individual organs as the source was not distributed uniformly in whole body. Thus, voxel-based

  1. Description and evaluation of a mechanistically based conceptual model for spall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, F.D.; Knowles, M.K.; Thompson, T.W. [and others

    1997-08-01

    A mechanistically based model for a possible spall event at the WIPP site is developed and evaluated in this report. Release of waste material to the surface during an inadvertent borehole intrusion is possible if future states of the repository include high gas pressure and waste material consisting of fine particulates having low mechanical strength. The conceptual model incorporates the physics of wellbore hydraulics coupled to transient gas flow to the intrusion borehole, and mechanical response of the waste. Degraded waste properties using of the model. The evaluations include both numerical and analytical implementations of the conceptual model. A tensile failure criterion is assumed appropriate for calculation of volumes of waste experiencing fragmentation. Calculations show that for repository gas pressures less than 12 MPa, no tensile failure occurs. Minimal volumes of material experience failure below gas pressure of 14 MPa. Repository conditions dictate that the probability of gas pressures exceeding 14 MPa is approximately 1%. For these conditions, a maximum failed volume of 0.25 m{sup 3} is calculated.

  2. Description and evaluation of a mechanistically based conceptual model for spall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, F.D.; Knowles, M.K.; Thompson, T.W.

    1997-08-01

    A mechanistically based model for a possible spall event at the WIPP site is developed and evaluated in this report. Release of waste material to the surface during an inadvertent borehole intrusion is possible if future states of the repository include high gas pressure and waste material consisting of fine particulates having low mechanical strength. The conceptual model incorporates the physics of wellbore hydraulics coupled to transient gas flow to the intrusion borehole, and mechanical response of the waste. Degraded waste properties using of the model. The evaluations include both numerical and analytical implementations of the conceptual model. A tensile failure criterion is assumed appropriate for calculation of volumes of waste experiencing fragmentation. Calculations show that for repository gas pressures less than 12 MPa, no tensile failure occurs. Minimal volumes of material experience failure below gas pressure of 14 MPa. Repository conditions dictate that the probability of gas pressures exceeding 14 MPa is approximately 1%. For these conditions, a maximum failed volume of 0.25 m 3 is calculated

  3. The evaluation of distributed damage in concrete based on sinusoidal modeling of the ultrasonic response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepehrinezhad, Alireza; Toufigh, Vahab

    2018-05-25

    Ultrasonic wave attenuation is an effective descriptor of distributed damage in inhomogeneous materials. Methods developed to measure wave attenuation have the potential to provide an in-site evaluation of existing concrete structures insofar as they are accurate and time-efficient. In this study, material classification and distributed damage evaluation were investigated based on the sinusoidal modeling of the response from the through-transmission ultrasonic tests on polymer concrete specimens. The response signal was modeled as single or the sum of damping sinusoids. Due to the inhomogeneous nature of concrete materials, model parameters may vary from one specimen to another. Therefore, these parameters are not known in advance and should be estimated while the response signal is being received. The modeling procedure used in this study involves a data-adaptive algorithm to estimate the parameters online. Data-adaptive algorithms are used due to a lack of knowledge of the model parameters. The damping factor was estimated as a descriptor of the distributed damage. The results were compared in two different cases as follows: (1) constant excitation frequency with varying concrete mixtures and (2) constant mixture with varying excitation frequencies. The specimens were also loaded up to their ultimate compressive strength to investigate the effect of distributed damage in the response signal. The results of the estimation indicated that the damping was highly sensitive to the change in material inhomogeneity, even in comparable mixtures. In addition to the proposed method, three methods were employed to compare the results based on their accuracy in the classification of materials and the evaluation of the distributed damage. It is shown that the estimated damping factor is not only sensitive to damage in the final stages of loading, but it is also applicable in evaluating micro damages in the earlier stages providing a reliable descriptor of damage. In addition

  4. A human visual model-based approach of the visual attention and performance evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Meur, Olivier; Barba, Dominique; Le Callet, Patrick; Thoreau, Dominique

    2005-03-01

    In this paper, a coherent computational model of visual selective attention for color pictures is described and its performances are precisely evaluated. The model based on some important behaviours of the human visual system is composed of four parts: visibility, perception, perceptual grouping and saliency map construction. This paper focuses mainly on its performances assessment by achieving extended subjective and objective comparisons with real fixation points captured by an eye-tracking system used by the observers in a task-free viewing mode. From the knowledge of the ground truth, qualitatively and quantitatively comparisons have been made in terms of the measurement of the linear correlation coefficient (CC) and of the Kulback Liebler divergence (KL). On a set of 10 natural color images, the results show that the linear correlation coefficient and the Kullback Leibler divergence are of about 0.71 and 0.46, respectively. CC and Kl measures with this model are respectively improved by about 4% and 7% compared to the best model proposed by L.Itti. Moreover, by comparing the ability of our model to predict eye movements produced by an average observer, we can conclude that our model succeeds quite well in predicting the spatial locations of the most important areas of the image content.

  5. Model-Based Evaluation Of System Scalability: Bandwidth Analysis For Smartphone-Based Biosensing Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patou, François; Madsen, Jan; Dimaki, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Scalability is a design principle often valued for the engineering of complex systems. Scalability is the ability of a system to change the current value of one of its specification parameters. Although targeted frameworks are available for the evaluation of scalability for specific digital systems...... re-engineering of 5 independent system modules, from the replacement of a wireless Bluetooth interface, to the revision of the ADC sample-and-hold operation could help increase system bandwidth....

  6. Technology Evaluation of Process Configurations for Second Generation Bioethanol Production using Dynamic Model-based Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    An assessment of a number of different process flowsheets for bioethanol production was performed using dynamic model-based simulations. The evaluation employed diverse operational scenarios such as, fed-batch, continuous and continuous with recycle configurations. Each configuration was evaluated...... against the following benchmark criteria, yield (kg ethanol/kg dry-biomass), final product concentration and number of unit operations required in the different process configurations. The results has shown the process configuration for simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation (SSCF) operating...... in continuous mode with a recycle of the SSCF reactor effluent, results in the best productivity of bioethanol among the proposed process configurations, with a yield of 0.18 kg ethanol /kg dry-biomass....

  7. Study on evaluation method for heterogeneous sedimentary rocks based on forward model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masui, Yasuhiro; Kawada, Koji; Katoh, Arata; Tsuji, Takashi; Suwabe, Mizue

    2004-02-01

    It is very important to estimate the facies distribution of heterogeneous sedimentary rocks for geological disposal of high level radioactive waste. The heterogeneousness of sedimentary rocks is due to variable distribution of grain size and mineral composition. The objective of this study is to establish the evaluation method for heterogeneous sedimentary rocks based on forward model. This study consisted of geological study for Horonobe area and the development of soft wear for sedimentary model. Geological study was composed of following items. 1. The sedimentary system for Koetoi and Wakkanai formations in Horonobe area was compiled based on papers. 2. The cores of HDB-1 were observed mainly from sedimentological view. 3. The facies and compaction property of argillaceous rocks were studied based on physical logs and core analysis data of wells. 4. The structure maps, isochrone maps, isopach maps and restored geological sections were made. The soft wear for sedimentary model to show sedimentary system on a basin scale was developed. This soft wear estimates the facies distribution and hydraulic conductivity of sedimentary rocks on three dimensions scale by numerical simulation. (author)

  8. An integrated utility-based model of conflict evaluation and resolution in the Stroop task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuderski, Adam; Smolen, Tomasz

    2016-04-01

    Cognitive control allows humans to direct and coordinate their thoughts and actions in a flexible way, in order to reach internal goals regardless of interference and distraction. The hallmark test used to examine cognitive control is the Stroop task, which elicits both the weakly learned but goal-relevant and the strongly learned but goal-irrelevant response tendencies, and requires people to follow the former while ignoring the latter. After reviewing the existing computational models of cognitive control in the Stroop task, its novel, integrated utility-based model is proposed. The model uses 3 crucial control mechanisms: response utility reinforcement learning, utility-based conflict evaluation using the Festinger formula for assessing the conflict level, and top-down adaptation of response utility in service of conflict resolution. Their complex, dynamic interaction led to replication of 18 experimental effects, being the largest data set explained to date by 1 Stroop model. The simulations cover the basic congruency effects (including the response latency distributions), performance dynamics and adaptation (including EEG indices of conflict), as well as the effects resulting from manipulations applied to stimulation and responding, which are yielded by the extant Stroop literature. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Applying and Individual-Based Model to Simultaneously Evaluate Net Ecosystem Production and Tree Diameter Increment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, F. J.

    2017-12-01

    Reconciling observations at fundamentally different scales is central in understanding the global carbon cycle. This study investigates a model-based melding of forest inventory data, remote-sensing data and micrometeorological-station data ("flux towers" estimating forest heat, CO2 and H2O fluxes). The individual tree-based model FORCCHN was used to evaluate the tree DBH increment and forest carbon fluxes. These are the first simultaneous simulations of the forest carbon budgets from flux towers and individual-tree growth estimates of forest carbon budgets using the continuous forest inventory data — under circumstances in which both predictions can be tested. Along with the global implications of such findings, this also improves the capacity for forest sustainable management and the comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystems. In forest ecology, diameter at breast height (DBH) of a tree significantly determines an individual tree's cross-sectional sapwood area, its biomass and carbon storage. Evaluation the annual DBH increment (ΔDBH) of an individual tree is central to understanding tree growth and forest ecology. Ecosystem Carbon flux is a consequence of key ecosystem processes in the forest-ecosystem carbon cycle, Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP and NPP, respectively) and Net Ecosystem Respiration (NEP). All of these closely relate with tree DBH changes and tree death. Despite advances in evaluating forest carbon fluxes with flux towers and forest inventories for individual tree ΔDBH, few current ecological models can simultaneously quantify and predict the tree ΔDBH and forest carbon flux.

  10. Evaluation of Water Resource Security Based on an MIV-BP Model in a Karst Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liying Liu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of water resource security deserves particular attention in water resource planning and management. A typical karst area in Guizhou Province, China, was used as the research area in this paper. First, based on data from Guizhou Province for the past 10 years, the mean impact value–back propagation (MIV-BP model was used to analyze the factors influencing water resource security in the karst area. Second, 18 indices involving five aspects, water environment subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem, ecological subsystem, and human subsystem, were selected to establish an evaluation index of water resource security. Finally, a BP artificial neural network model was constructed to evaluate the water resource security of Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2014. The results show that water resource security in Guizhou, which was at a moderate warning level from 2005 to 2009 and a critical safety level from 2010 to 2014, has generally improved. Groundwater supply ratio, industrial water utilization rate, water use efficiency, per capita grain production, and water yield modulus were the obstacles to water resource security. Driving factors were comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste, qualifying rate of industrial wastewater, above moderate rocky desertification area ratio, water requirement per unit gross domestic product (GDP, and degree of development and utilization of groundwater. Our results provide useful suggestions on the management of water resource security in Guizhou Province and a valuable reference for water resource research.

  11. Research on evaluating water resource resilience based on projection pursuit classification model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong; Zhao, Dan; Liang, Xu; Wu, Qiuchen

    2016-03-01

    Water is a fundamental natural resource while agriculture water guarantees the grain output, which shows that the utilization and management of water resource have a significant practical meaning. Regional agricultural water resource system features with unpredictable, self-organization, and non-linear which lays a certain difficulty on the evaluation of regional agriculture water resource resilience. The current research on water resource resilience remains to focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis is still in the primary stage, thus, according to the above issues, projection pursuit classification model is brought forward. With the help of artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA), it optimizes the projection index function, seeks for the optimal projection direction, and improves AFSA with the application of self-adaptive artificial fish step and crowding factor. Taking Hongxinglong Administration of Heilongjiang as the research base and on the basis of improving AFSA, it established the evaluation of projection pursuit classification model to agriculture water resource system resilience besides the proceeding analysis of projection pursuit classification model on accelerating genetic algorithm. The research shows that the water resource resilience of Hongxinglong is the best than Raohe Farm, and the last 597 Farm. And the further analysis shows that the key driving factors influencing agricultural water resource resilience are precipitation and agriculture water consumption. The research result reveals the restoring situation of the local water resource system, providing foundation for agriculture water resource management.

  12. Evaluation of kriging based surrogate models constructed from mesoscale computations of shock interaction with particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Oishik, E-mail: oishik-sen@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Gaul, Nicholas J., E-mail: nicholas-gaul@ramdosolutions.com [RAMDO Solutions, LLC, Iowa City, IA 52240 (United States); Choi, K.K., E-mail: kyung-choi@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Jacobs, Gustaaf, E-mail: gjacobs@sdsu.edu [Aerospace Engineering, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92115 (United States); Udaykumar, H.S., E-mail: hs-kumar@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Macro-scale computations of shocked particulate flows require closure laws that model the exchange of momentum/energy between the fluid and particle phases. Closure laws are constructed in this work in the form of surrogate models derived from highly resolved mesoscale computations of shock-particle interactions. The mesoscale computations are performed to calculate the drag force on a cluster of particles for different values of Mach Number and particle volume fraction. Two Kriging-based methods, viz. the Dynamic Kriging Method (DKG) and the Modified Bayesian Kriging Method (MBKG) are evaluated for their ability to construct surrogate models with sparse data; i.e. using the least number of mesoscale simulations. It is shown that if the input data is noise-free, the DKG method converges monotonically; convergence is less robust in the presence of noise. The MBKG method converges monotonically even with noisy input data and is therefore more suitable for surrogate model construction from numerical experiments. This work is the first step towards a full multiscale modeling of interaction of shocked particle laden flows.

  13. Model-Based Evaluation of Urban River Restoration: Conflicts between Sensitive Fish Species and Recreational Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aude Zingraff-Hamed

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban rivers are socioecological systems, and restored habitats may be attractive to both sensitive species and recreationists. Understanding the potential conflicts between ecological and recreational values is a critical issue for the development of a sustainable river-management plan. Habitat models are very promising tools for the ecological evaluation of river restoration projects that are already concluded, ongoing, or even to be planned. With our paper, we make a first attempt at integrating recreational user pressure into habitat modeling. The objective of this study was to analyze whether human impact is likely to hinder the re-establishment of a target species despite the successful restoration of physical habitat structures in the case of the restoration of the Isar River in Munich (Germany and the target fish species Chondostroma nasus L. Our analysis combined high-resolution 2D hydrodynamic modeling with mapping of recreational pressure and used an expert-based procedure for modeling habitat suitability. The results are twofold: (1 the restored river contains suitable physical habitats for population conservation but has low suitability for recruitment; (2 densely used areas match highly suitable habitats for C. nasus. In the future, the integrated modeling procedure presented here may allow ecological refuge for sensitive target species to be included in the design of restoration and may help in the development of visitor-management plans to safeguard biodiversity and recreational ecosystem services.

  14. Impact on house staff evaluation scores when changing from a Dreyfus- to a Milestone-based evaluation model: one internal medicine residency program's findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Karen A; Balwan, Sandy; Cacace, Frank; Katona, Kyle; Sunday, Suzanne; Chaudhry, Saima

    2014-01-01

    As graduate medical education (GME) moves into the Next Accreditation System (NAS), programs must take a critical look at their current models of evaluation and assess how well they align with reporting outcomes. Our objective was to assess the impact on house staff evaluation scores when transitioning from a Dreyfus-based model of evaluation to a Milestone-based model of evaluation. Milestones are a key component of the NAS. We analyzed all end of rotation evaluations of house staff completed by faculty for academic years 2010-2011 (pre-Dreyfus model) and 2011-2012 (post-Milestone model) in one large university-based internal medicine residency training program. Main measures included change in PGY-level average score; slope, range, and separation of average scores across all six Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) competencies. Transitioning from a Dreyfus-based model to a Milestone-based model resulted in a larger separation in the scores between our three post-graduate year classes, a steeper progression of scores in the PGY-1 class, a wider use of the 5-point scale on our global end of rotation evaluation form, and a downward shift in the PGY-1 scores and an upward shift in the PGY-3 scores. For faculty trained in both models of assessment, the Milestone-based model had greater discriminatory ability as evidenced by the larger separation in the scores for all the classes, in particular the PGY-1 class.

  15. Development and evaluation of a biomedical search engine using a predicate-based vector space model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Myungjae; Leroy, Gondy; Martinez, Jesse D; Harwell, Jeffrey

    2013-10-01

    Although biomedical information available in articles and patents is increasing exponentially, we continue to rely on the same information retrieval methods and use very few keywords to search millions of documents. We are developing a fundamentally different approach for finding much more precise and complete information with a single query using predicates instead of keywords for both query and document representation. Predicates are triples that are more complex datastructures than keywords and contain more structured information. To make optimal use of them, we developed a new predicate-based vector space model and query-document similarity function with adjusted tf-idf and boost function. Using a test bed of 107,367 PubMed abstracts, we evaluated the first essential function: retrieving information. Cancer researchers provided 20 realistic queries, for which the top 15 abstracts were retrieved using a predicate-based (new) and keyword-based (baseline) approach. Each abstract was evaluated, double-blind, by cancer researchers on a 0-5 point scale to calculate precision (0 versus higher) and relevance (0-5 score). Precision was significantly higher (psearching than keywords, laying the foundation for rich and sophisticated information search. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation on agricultural terraces of DOURO VALLEY (PORTUGAL), using physically based mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Ana; Bateira, Carlos; Laura, Soares; Fernandes, Joana; Gonçalves, José; Marques, Fernando

    2016-04-01

    The work focuses the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Douro Region agricultural terraces, supported by dry stone walls and earth embankments, using two physically based models. The applied models, SHALSTAB (Montgomery et al.,1994; Dietrich et al., 1995) and SINMAP (PACK et al., 2005), combine an infinite slope stability model with a steady state hydrological model, and both use the following geophysical parameters: cohesion, friction angle, specific weight and soil thickness. The definition of the contributing areas is different in both models. The D∞ methodology used by SINMAP model suggests a great influence of the terraces morphology, providing a much more diffuse flow on the internal flow modelling. The MD8 used in SHALSTAB promotes an important degree of flow concentration, representing an internal flow based on preferential paths of the runoff as the areas more susceptible to saturation processes. The model validation is made through the contingency matrix method (Fawcett, 2006; Raia et al., 2014) and implies the confrontation with the inventory of past landslides. The True Positive Rate shows that SHALSTAB classifies 77% of the landslides on the high susceptibility areas, while SINMAP reaches 90%. The SINMAP has a False Positive Rate (represents the percentage of the slipped area that is classified as unstable but without landslides) of 83% and the SHALSTAB has 67%. The reliability (analyzes the areas that were correctly classified on the total area) of SHALSTAB is better (33% against 18% of SINMAP). Relative to Precision (refers to the ratio of the slipped area correctly classified over the whole area classified as unstable) SHALSTAB has better results (0.00298 against 0.00283 of SINMAP). It was elaborate the index TPR/FPR and better results obtained by SHALSTAB (1.14 against 1.09 of SINMAP). SHALSTAB shows a better performance in the definition of susceptibility most prone areas to instability processes. One of the reasons for the difference of

  17. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  18. Safety evaluation model of urban cross-river tunnel based on driving simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yingqi; Lu, Linjun; Lu, Jian John

    2017-09-01

    Currently, Shanghai urban cross-river tunnels have three principal characteristics: increased traffic, a high accident rate and rapidly developing construction. Because of their complex geographic and hydrological characteristics, the alignment conditions in urban cross-river tunnels are more complicated than in highway tunnels, so a safety evaluation of urban cross-river tunnels is necessary to suggest follow-up construction and changes in operational management. A driving risk index (DRI) for urban cross-river tunnels was proposed in this study. An index system was also constructed, combining eight factors derived from the output of a driving simulator regarding three aspects of risk due to following, lateral accidents and driver workload. Analytic hierarchy process methods and expert marking and normalization processing were applied to construct a mathematical model for the DRI. The driving simulator was used to simulate 12 Shanghai urban cross-river tunnels and a relationship was obtained between the DRI for the tunnels and the corresponding accident rate (AR) via a regression analysis. The regression analysis results showed that the relationship between the DRI and the AR mapped to an exponential function with a high degree of fit. In the absence of detailed accident data, a safety evaluation model based on factors derived from a driving simulation can effectively assess the driving risk in urban cross-river tunnels constructed or in design.

  19. Data modeling and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauge, E.; Hilaire, S.

    2006-01-01

    This lecture is devoted to the nuclear data evaluation process, during which the current knowledge (experimental or theoretical) of nuclear reactions is condensed and synthesised into a computer file (the evaluated data file) that application codes can process and use for simulation calculations. After an overview of the content of evaluated nuclear data files, we describe the different methods used for evaluating nuclear data. We specifically focus on the model based approach which we use to evaluate data in the continuum region. A few examples, coming from the day to day practice of data evaluation will illustrate this lecture. Finally, we will discuss the most likely perspectives for improvement of the evaluation process in the next decade. (author)

  20. Evaluation of three physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling tools for emergency risk assessment after acute dichloromethane exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boerleider, R. Z.; Olie, J. D N; van Eijkeren, J. C H; Bos, P. M J; Hof, B. G H; de Vries, I.; Bessems, J. G M; Meulenbelt, J.; Hunault, C. C.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models may be useful in emergency risk assessment, after acute exposure to chemicals, such as dichloromethane (DCM). We evaluated the applicability of three PBPK models for human risk assessment following a single exposure to DCM: one model

  1. Residential-energy-demand modeling and the NIECS data base: an evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowing, T.G.; Dubin, J.A.; McFadden, D.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to evaluate the 1978-1979 National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) data base in terms of its usefulness for estimating residential energy demand models based on household appliance choice and utilization decisions. The NIECS contains detailed energy usage information at the household level for 4081 households during the April 1978 to March 1979 period. Among the data included are information on the structural and thermal characteristics of the housing unit, demographic characteristics of the household, fuel usage, appliance characteristics, and actual energy consumption. The survey covers the four primary residential fuels-electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas - and includes detailed information on recent household conservation and retrofit activities. Section II contains brief descriptions of the major components of the NIECS data set. Discussions are included on the sample frame and the imputation procedures used in NIECS. There are also two extensive tables, giving detailed statistical and other information on most of the non-vehicle NIECS variables. Section III contains an assessment of the NIECS data, focusing on four areas: measurement error, sample design, imputation problems, and additional data needed to estimate appliance choice/use models. Section IV summarizes and concludes the report.

  2. A rough set-based association rule approach implemented on a brand trust evaluation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Shu-Hsien; Chen, Yin-Ju

    2017-09-01

    In commerce, businesses use branding to differentiate their product and service offerings from those of their competitors. The brand incorporates a set of product or service features that are associated with that particular brand name and identifies the product/service segmentation in the market. This study proposes a new data mining approach, a rough set-based association rule induction, implemented on a brand trust evaluation model. In addition, it presents as one way to deal with data uncertainty to analyse ratio scale data, while creating predictive if-then rules that generalise data values to the retail region. As such, this study uses the analysis of algorithms to find alcoholic beverages brand trust recall. Finally, discussions and conclusion are presented for further managerial implications.

  3. EVALUATION OF SOIL LOSS IN GUARAÍRA BASIN BY GIS AND REMOTE SENSING BASED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richarde Marques da Silva

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental degradation, and specifically erosion, is a serious and extensive problem in many areas in Brazil. Prediction of runoff and erosion in ungauged basins is one of the most challenging tasks anywhere and it is especially a very difficult one in developing countries where monitoring and continuous measurements of these quantities are carried out in very few basins either due to the costs involved or due to the lack of trained personnel. The erosion processes and land use in the Guaraíra River Experimental Basin, located in Paraíba state, Brazil, are evaluated using remote sensing and a runoff-erosion model. WEPP is a process-based continuous simulation erosion model that can be applied to hillslope profiles and small watersheds. WEPP erosion model have been compared in numerous studies to observed values for soil loss and sediment delivery from cropland plots, forest roads, irrigated lands and small watersheds. A number of different techniques for evaluating WEPP have been used, including one recently developed in which the ability of WEPP to accurately predict soil erosion can be compared to the accuracy of replicated plots to predict soil erosion. WEPP was calibrated with daily rainfall data from five rain gauges for the period of 2003 to 2005. The obtained results showed the susceptible areas to the erosion process within Guaraíra river basin, and that the mean sediment yield could be in the order of 3.0 ton/ha/year (in an area of 5.84 ha.

  4. EVALUATION OF SOIL LOSS IN GUARAÍRA BASIN BY GIS AND REMOTE SENSING BASED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richarde Marques Silva

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental degradation, and specifically erosion, is a serious and extensive problem in many areas in Brazil. Prediction of runoff and erosion in ungauged basins is one of the most challenging tasks anywhere and it is especially a very difficult one in developing countries where monitoring and continuous measurements of these quantities are carried out in very few basins either due to the costs involved or due to the lack of trained personnel. The erosion processes and land use in the Guaraíra River Experimental Basin, located in Paraíba state, Brazil, are evaluated using remote sensing and a runoff-erosion model. WEPP is a process-based continuous simulation erosion model that can be applied to hillslope profiles and small watersheds. WEPP erosion model have been compared in numerous studies to observed values for soil loss and sediment delivery from cropland plots, forest roads, irrigated lands and small watersheds. A number of different techniques for evaluating WEPP have been used, including one recently developed in which the ability of WEPP to accurately predict soil erosion can be compared to the accuracy of replicated plots to predict soil erosion. WEPP was calibrated with daily rainfall data from five rain gauges for the period of 2003 to 2005. The obtained results showed the susceptible areas to the erosion process within Guaraíra river basin, and that the mean sediment yield could be in the order of 3.0 ton/ha/year (in an area of 5.84 ha.

  5. Development, implementation, and evaluation of a community pharmacy-based asthma care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Bandana; Krass, Ines; Armour, Carol

    2004-11-01

    Pharmacists are uniquely placed in the healthcare system to address critical issues in asthma management in the community. Various programs have shown the benefits of a pharmacist-led asthma care program; however, no such programs have previously been evaluated in Australia. To measure the impact of a specialized asthma service provided through community pharmacies in terms of objective patient clinical, humanistic, and economic outcomes. A parallel controlled design, where 52 intervention patients and 50 control patients with asthma were recruited in 2 distinct locations, was used. In the intervention area, pharmacists were trained and delivered an asthma care model, with 3 follow-up visits over 6 months. This model was evaluated based on clinical, humanistic, and economic outcomes compared between and within groups. There was a significant reduction in asthma severity in the intervention group, 2.6 +/- 0.5 to 1.6 +/- 0.7 (mean +/- SD; p < 0.001) versus the control group, 2.3 +/- 0.7 to 2.4 +/- 0.5. In the intervention group, peak flow indices improved from 82.7% +/- 8.2% at baseline to 87.4% +/- 8.9% (p < 0.001) at the final visit, and there was a significant reduction in the defined daily dose of albuterol used by patients, from 374.8 +/- 314.8 microg at baseline to 198.4 +/- 196.9 microg at the final visit (p < 0.015). There was also a statistically significant improvement in perceived control of asthma and asthma-related knowledge scores in the intervention group compared with the control group between baseline and the final visit. Annual savings of $132.84(AU) in medication costs per patient and $100,801.20 for the whole group, based on overall severity reduction, were demonstrated. Based on the results of this study, it appears that a specialized asthma care model offers community pharmacists an opportunity to contribute toward improving asthma management in the Australian community.

  6. Evaluation of Clear Sky Models for Satellite-Based Irradiance Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sengupta, Manajit [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gotseff, Peter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report describes an intercomparison of three popular broadband clear sky solar irradiance model results with measured data, as well as satellite-based model clear sky results compared to measured clear sky data. The authors conclude that one of the popular clear sky models (the Bird clear sky model developed by Richard Bird and Roland Hulstrom) could serve as a more accurate replacement for current satellite-model clear sky estimations. Additionally, the analysis of the model results with respect to model input parameters indicates that rather than climatological, annual, or monthly mean input data, higher-time-resolution input parameters improve the general clear sky model performance.

  7. Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness

  8. Evaluation of CO2-based cold sterilization of a model hydrogel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, A; Zhang, J; Matthews, M A

    2008-12-15

    The purpose of the present work is to evaluate a novel CO(2)-based cold sterilization process in terms of both its killing efficiency and its effects on the physical properties of a model hydrogel, poly(acrylic acid-co-acrylamide) potassium salt. Suspensions of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli were prepared for hydration and inoculation of the gel. The hydrogels were treated with supercritical CO(2) (40 degrees C, 27.6 MPa). The amount of bacteria was quantified before and after treatment. With pure CO(2), complete killing of S. aureus and E. coli was achieved for treatment times as low as 60 min. After treatment with CO(2) plus trace amounts of H(2)O(2) at the same experimental conditions, complete bacteria kill was also achieved. For times less than 30 min, incomplete kill was noted. Several physical properties of the gel were evaluated before and after SC-CO(2) treatment. These were largely unaffected by the CO(2) process. Drying curves showed no significant change between treated (pure CO(2) and CO(2) plus 30% H(2)O(2)) and untreated samples. The average equilibrium swelling ratios were also very similar. No changes in the dry hydrogel particle structure were evident from SEM micrographs.

  9. Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane Hénaux

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates, considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1-2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50-60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

  10. Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hénaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.; Bunck, Christine M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

  11. Evaluation of temperature-based global solar radiation models in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoying; Mei, Xurong; Li, Yuzhong

    2009-01-01

    empirical equations to estimate these parameters. Two schemes in calculating ¿T were employed: ¿T1 (based on single day Tmin) used in the Harg and ¿T2 (based on 2-day average of Tmin) used in the B-C model. Results showed that the original B-C model performed similarly to the best performing modified Harg...

  12. Comparison and Analysis of Evaluation System of Child Care Program in Primary Health Care System in the East Azerbaijan Province Based on Comprehensive Evaluation Model (CIPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yalda Mousa Zadeh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and objectives: Planning plays an important role in improving children's health and an evaluation system is necessary to planning. The purpose of this study was comparing and analyzing evaluation system of child care program in primary health care system in the Eastern Azerbaijan province based on Comprehensive Evaluation Model (CIPP. Material and Methods : This is a cross sectional study. The process includes a review of current evaluation system, comparison and analysis of the system based on a comprehensive model and to assess and identify the strengths and weaknesses of the current systems. The quantitative methods (such as brainstorming, observation and interview and consensus of study group about the results of the study were used for analyzing and interpreting results. Results: It showed that not enough attention was paid to the context and performance and the content of evaluation just includes inputs and processes based on the finding. Specific criteria and impact were considered in four areas (context, input, process and outcome and all levels which were according to the proposal and based on the CIPP model. Conclusion: Evaluation is a control process tool by higher levels and self-assessment by service provider is not considered in the current system. Evaluation includes quantitative aspects and not the quality of process. So, it is recommended that forecasting system that utilizes evaluation will result in improving future planning and a scientific model to be used in designing evaluation program. ​

  13. Human neuronal cell based assay: A new in vitro model for toxicity evaluation of ciguatoxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccini, Teresa; Caloni, Francesca; De Simone, Uliana

    2017-06-01

    Ciguatoxins (CTXs) are emerging marine neurotoxins representing the main cause of ciguatera fish poisoning, an intoxication syndrome which configures a health emergency and constitutes an evolving issue constantly changing due to new vectors and derivatives of CTXs, as well as their presence in new non-endemic areas. The study applied the neuroblastoma cell model of human origin (SH-SY5Y) to evaluate species-specific mechanistic information on CTX toxicity. Metabolic functionality, cell morphology, cytosolic Ca 2+ i responses, neuronal cell growth and proliferation were assessed after short- (4-24h) and long-term exposure (10days) to P-CTX-3C. In SH-SY5Y, P-CTX-3C displayed a powerful cytotoxicity requiring the presence of both Veratridine and Ouabain. SH-SY5Y were very sensitive to Ouabain: 10 and 0.25nM appeared the optimal concentrations, for short- and long-term toxicity studies, respectively, to be used in co-incubation with Veratridine (25μM), simulating the physiological and pathological endogenous Ouabain levels in humans. P-CTX-3C cytotoxic effect, on human neurons co-incubated with OV (Ouabain+Veratridine) mix, was expressed starting from 100pM after short- and 25pM after long-term exposure. Notably, P-CTX-3C alone at 25nM induced cytotoxicity after 24h and prolonged exposure. This human brain-derived cell line appears a suitable cell-based-model to evaluate cytotoxicity of CTX present in marine food contaminated at low toxic levels and to characterize the toxicological profile of other/new congeners. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Cellular Automata Based Modeling for Evaluating Different Bus Stop Designs in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyang Ding

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A cellular automaton model is proposed to simulate mixed traffic flow composed of motor vehicles and bicycles near bus stops. Three typical types of bus stops which are common in China are considered in the model, including two types of curbside bus stops and one type of bus bay stops. Passenger transport capacity of three types of bus stops, which is applied to evaluate the bus stop design, is calculated based on the corresponding traffic flow rate. According to the simulation results, the flow rates of both motor vehicles and bicycles exhibit phase transition from free flow to the saturation one at the critical point. The results also show that the larger the interaction between motor vehicle and bicycle flow is near curbside bus stops, the more the value of saturated flows drops. Curbside bus stops are more suitable when the conflicts between two flows are small and the inflow rate of motor vehicles is low. On the contrary, bus bay stops should be applied due to their ability to reduce traffic conflicts. Findings of this study can provide useful suggestions on bus stop selection considering different inflow rate of motor vehicles and bicycles simultaneously.

  15. An open-source Java-based Toolbox for environmental model evaluation: The MOUSE Software Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    A consequence of environmental model complexity is that the task of understanding how environmental models work and identifying their sensitivities/uncertainties, etc. becomes progressively more difficult. Comprehensive numerical and visual evaluation tools have been developed such as the Monte Carl...

  16. Models based on multichannel R-matrix theory for evaluating light element reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodder, D.C.; Hale, G.M.; Nisley, R.A.; Witte, K.; Young, P.G.

    1975-01-01

    Multichannel R-matrix theory has been used as a basis for models for analysis and evaluation of light nuclear systems. These models have the characteristic that data predictions can be made utilizing information derived from other reactions related to the one of primary interest. Several examples are given where such an approach is valid and appropriate. (auth.)

  17. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

  18. Evaluation of Rule-based Modularization in Model Transformation Languages illustrated with ATL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanov, Ivan; van den Berg, Klaas; Jouault, Frédéric

    This paper studies ways for modularizing transformation definitions in current rule-based model transformation languages. Two scenarios are shown in which the modular units are identified on the base of the relations between source and target metamodels and on the base of generic transformation

  19. Dynamic modeling and performance evaluation of axial flux PMSG based wind turbine system with MPPT control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Behjat

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research work develops dynamic model of a gearless small scale wind power generation system based on a direct driven single sided outer rotor AFPMSG with coreless armature winding. Dynamic modeling of the AFPMSG based wind turbine requires machine parameters. To this end, a 3D FEM model of the generator is developed and from magnetostatic and transient analysis of the FEM model, machine parameters are calculated and utilized in dynamic modeling of the system. A maximum power point tracking (MPPT-based FOC control approach is used to obtain maximum power from the variable wind speed. The simulation results show the proper performance of the developed dynamic model of the AFPMSG, control approach and power generation system.

  20. Routine magnetic resonance imaging for idiopathic olfactory loss: a modeling-based economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudmik, Luke; Smith, Kristine A; Soler, Zachary M; Schlosser, Rodney J; Smith, Timothy L

    2014-10-01

    Idiopathic olfactory loss is a common clinical scenario encountered by otolaryngologists. While trying to allocate limited health care resources appropriately, the decision to obtain a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan to investigate for a rare intracranial abnormality can be difficult. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ordering routine MRI in patients with idiopathic olfactory loss. We performed a modeling-based economic evaluation with a time horizon of less than 1 year. Patients included in the analysis had idiopathic olfactory loss defined by no preceding viral illness or head trauma and negative findings of a physical examination and nasal endoscopy. Routine MRI vs no-imaging strategies. We developed a decision tree economic model from the societal perspective. Effectiveness, probability, and cost data were obtained from the published literature. Litigation rates and costs related to a missed diagnosis were obtained from the Physicians Insurers Association of America. A univariate threshold analysis and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to quantify the degree of certainty in the economic conclusion of the reference case. The comparative groups included those who underwent routine MRI of the brain with contrast alone and those who underwent no brain imaging. The primary outcome was the cost per correct diagnosis of idiopathic olfactory loss. The mean (SD) cost for the MRI strategy totaled $2400.00 ($1717.54) and was effective 100% of the time, whereas the mean (SD) cost for the no-imaging strategy totaled $86.61 ($107.40) and was effective 98% of the time. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the MRI strategy compared with the no-imaging strategy was $115 669.50, which is higher than most acceptable willingness-to-pay thresholds. The threshold analysis demonstrated that when the probability of having a treatable intracranial disease process reached 7.9%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MRI vs no

  1. Identity of organizational conflict framework: Evaluating model factors based on demographic characteristics in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaveh Hasani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE FA Purpose: The purpose of this study was to Identity of organizational conflict framework:  Evaluating model factors based on demographic characteristics in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: Research method is descriptive - applied. The statistical population includes all of the employees in Iran`s Azad Universites with 600 individuals at the time of the study and statistical sample included 234 individuals who were selected using Morgan table. Beside this study, descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Also, reliability approved through Cronbach alpha (0.87. Then, to detect the dimensions causes of organizational conflict, factor analysis in line with the main components was used. Through exploratory analysis, ten principal factors identified. Thereafter, confirmatory factor analysis reconfirmed these factors. Findings and originality/value: The results of study showed that there is no significant difference between the causes of organizational conflict based on the gender. Also, there are significant differences among the causes of organizational conflict based on the variables of age, education and work experience. Research limitations/implications: we adopt a cross sectional research design and as a result inferences regarding causality cannot be drawn. Future studies following a longitudinal design could provide a more dynamic perspective and contribute further to this stream of research. Originality/value: A lot of researches about the conflict management styles, organizational conflict's effects, etc. are conducted by different researchers, but a handful of researches have been conducted in the field of resources and causes of organizational conflict and this is one of the reasons that it is important for researchers to address this issue.

  2. A Comprehensive Decision-Making Approach Based on Hierarchical Attribute Model for Information Fusion Algorithms’ Performance Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianhui Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at the problem of fusion algorithm performance evaluation in multiradar information fusion system, firstly the hierarchical attribute model of track relevance performance evaluation model is established based on the structural model and functional model and quantization methods of evaluation indicators are given; secondly a combination weighting method is proposed to determine the weights of evaluation indicators, in which the objective and subjective weights are separately determined by criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC and trapezoidal fuzzy scale analytic hierarchy process (AHP, and then experience factor is introduced to obtain the combination weight; at last the improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS replacing Euclidean distance with Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD is used to sort the weighted indicator value of the evaluation object. An example is given to illustrate the correctness and feasibility of the proposed method.

  3. Impact on house staff evaluation scores when changing from a Dreyfus- to a Milestone-based evaluation model: one internal medicine residency program's findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen A. Friedman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: As graduate medical education (GME moves into the Next Accreditation System (NAS, programs must take a critical look at their current models of evaluation and assess how well they align with reporting outcomes. Our objective was to assess the impact on house staff evaluation scores when transitioning from a Dreyfus-based model of evaluation to a Milestone-based model of evaluation. Milestones are a key component of the NAS. Method: We analyzed all end of rotation evaluations of house staff completed by faculty for academic years 2010–2011 (pre-Dreyfus model and 2011–2012 (post-Milestone model in one large university-based internal medicine residency training program. Main measures included change in PGY-level average score; slope, range, and separation of average scores across all six Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME competencies. Results: Transitioning from a Dreyfus-based model to a Milestone-based model resulted in a larger separation in the scores between our three post-graduate year classes, a steeper progression of scores in the PGY-1 class, a wider use of the 5-point scale on our global end of rotation evaluation form, and a downward shift in the PGY-1 scores and an upward shift in the PGY-3 scores. Conclusions: For faculty trained in both models of assessment, the Milestone-based model had greater discriminatory ability as evidenced by the larger separation in the scores for all the classes, in particular the PGY-1 class.

  4. A Formal Approach for RT-DVS Algorithms Evaluation Based on Statistical Model Checking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengxin Dai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy saving is a crucial concern in embedded real time systems. Many RT-DVS algorithms have been proposed to save energy while preserving deadline guarantees. This paper presents a novel approach to evaluate RT-DVS algorithms using statistical model checking. A scalable framework is proposed for RT-DVS algorithms evaluation, in which the relevant components are modeled as stochastic timed automata, and the evaluation metrics including utilization bound, energy efficiency, battery awareness, and temperature awareness are expressed as statistical queries. Evaluation of these metrics is performed by verifying the corresponding queries using UPPAAL-SMC and analyzing the statistical information provided by the tool. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework via a case study of five classical RT-DVS algorithms.

  5. Model-Based Description of Human Body Motions for Ergonomics Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Sayaka

    This paper presents modeling of Working Process and Working Simulation factory works. I focus on an example work (motion), its actual work(motion) and reference between them. An example work and its actual work can be analyzed and described as a sequence of atomic action. In order to describe workers' motion, some concepts of Atomic Unit, Model Events and Mediator are introduced. By using these concepts, we can analyze a workers' action and evaluate their works. Also, we consider it as a possible way for unifying all the data used in various applications (CAD/CAM, etc) during the design process and evaluating all subsystems in a virtual Factory.

  6. A Memory-Based Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Evaluating Basic Assumptions Underlying the PTSD Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, David C.; Berntsen, Dorthe; Bohni, Malene Klindt

    2008-01-01

    In the mnemonic model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the current memory of a negative event, not the event itself, determines symptoms. The model is an alternative to the current event-based etiology of PTSD represented in the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association,…

  7. Evaluating urban parking policies with agent-based model of driver parking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, C.J.C.M.; Benenson, I.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an explicit agent-based model of parking search in a city. In the model, “drivers” drive toward their destination, search for parking, park, remain at the parking place, and leave. The city’s infrastructure is represented by a high-resolution geographic information system (GIS)

  8. Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using APSIM: Model parameterisation and evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moeller, C.; Pala, M.; Manschadi, A.M.; Meinke, H.B.; Sauerborn, J.

    2007-01-01

    Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was

  9. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  10. Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Formetta

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3 and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input–output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy along the Salerno–Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide

  11. Multi-master profibus dp modelling and worst case analysis-based evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Salvatore Monforte; Eduardo Tovar; Francisco Vasques; Salvatore Cavalieri

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the real-time behaviour of the multi-master Profibus DP network. The analysis is based on the evaluation of the worst-case message response time and the results obtained are compared with those present in literature, pointing out its capability to perform a more accurate evaluation of the performance of the Profibus network. Copyright © 2002 IFAC.

  12. Model-based design evaluation of a compact, high-efficiency neutron scatter camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinfurther, Kyle; Mattingly, John; Brubaker, Erik; Steele, John

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the model-based design and evaluation of an instrument that estimates incident neutron direction using the kinematics of neutron scattering by hydrogen-1 nuclei in an organic scintillator. The instrument design uses a single, nearly contiguous volume of organic scintillator that is internally subdivided only as necessary to create optically isolated pillars, i.e., long, narrow parallelepipeds of organic scintillator. Scintillation light emitted in a given pillar is confined to that pillar by a combination of total internal reflection and a specular reflector applied to the four sides of the pillar transverse to its long axis. The scintillation light is collected at each end of the pillar using a photodetector, e.g., a microchannel plate photomultiplier (MCP-PM) or a silicon photomultiplier (SiPM). In this optically segmented design, the (x , y) position of scintillation light emission (where the x and y coordinates are transverse to the long axis of the pillars) is estimated as the pillar's (x , y) position in the scintillator "block", and the z-position (the position along the pillar's long axis) is estimated from the amplitude and relative timing of the signals produced by the photodetectors at each end of the pillar. The neutron's incident direction and energy is estimated from the (x , y , z) -positions of two sequential neutron-proton scattering interactions in the scintillator block using elastic scatter kinematics. For proton recoils greater than 1 MeV, we show that the (x , y , z) -position of neutron-proton scattering can be estimated with < 1 cm root-mean-squared [RMS] error and the proton recoil energy can be estimated with < 50 keV RMS error by fitting the photodetectors' response time history to models of optical photon transport within the scintillator pillars. Finally, we evaluate several alternative designs of this proposed single-volume scatter camera made of pillars of plastic scintillator (SVSC-PiPS), studying the effect of

  13. Modeling and evaluation of location-based forwarding in vehicular networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijenk, Geert; Klein Wolterink, W.; van den Berg, Hans Leo; Karagiannis, Georgios; Chen, Wai

    2015-01-01

    Location-based forwarding plays an important role in vehicular networks to dissem- inate messages in a certain region beyond the immediate transmission range of the originator. In this chapter, we introduce an analytical performance model that cap- tures the behaviour of location-based forwarding in

  14. Carbon emission analysis and evaluation of industrial departments in China: An improved environmental DEA cross model based on information entropy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yongming; Long, Chang; Geng, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Keyu

    2018-01-01

    Environmental protection and carbon emission reduction play a crucial role in the sustainable development procedure. However, the environmental efficiency analysis and evaluation based on the traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) cross model is subjective and inaccurate, because all elements in a column or a row of the cross evaluation matrix (CEM) in the traditional DEA cross model are given the same weight. Therefore, this paper proposes an improved environmental DEA cross model based on the information entropy to analyze and evaluate the carbon emission of industrial departments in China. The information entropy is applied to build the entropy distance based on the turbulence of the whole system, and calculate the weights in the CEM of the environmental DEA cross model in a dynamic way. The theoretical results show that the new weight constructed based on the information entropy is unique and optimal globally by using the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, compared with the traditional environmental DEA and DEA cross model, the improved environmental DEA cross model has a better efficiency discrimination ability based on the data of industrial departments in China. Moreover, the proposed model can obtain the potential of carbon emission reduction of industrial departments to improve the energy efficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Performance evaluation of Al-Zahra academic medical center based on Iran balanced scorecard model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeisi, Ahmad Reza; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad Hossein; Bakhsh, Roghayeh Mohammadi; Gangi, Hamid

    2012-01-01

    Growth and development in any country's national health system, without an efficient evaluation system, lacks the basic concepts and tools necessary for fulfilling the system's goals. The balanced scorecard (BSC) is a technique widely used to measure the performance of an organization. The basic core of the BSC is guided by the organization's vision and strategies, which are the bases for the formation of four perspectives of BSC. The goal of this research is the performance evaluation of Al-Zahra Academic Medical Center in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, based on Iran BSC model. This is a combination (quantitative-qualitative) research which was done at Al-Zahra Academic Medical Center in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences in 2011. The research populations were hospital managers at different levels. Sampling method was purposive sampling in which the key informed personnel participated in determining the performance indicators of hospital as the BSC team members in focused discussion groups. After determining the conceptual elements in focused discussion groups, the performance objectives (targets) and indicators of hospital were determined and sorted in perspectives by the group discussion participants. Following that, the performance indicators were calculated by the experts according to the predetermined objectives; then, the score of each indicator and the mean score of each perspective were calculated. Research findings included development of the organizational mission, vision, values, objectives, and strategies. The strategies agreed upon by the participants in the focus discussion group included five strategies, which were customer satisfaction, continuous quality improvement, development of human resources, supporting innovation, expansion of services and improving the productivity. Research participants also agreed upon four perspectives for the Al-Zahra hospital BSC. In the patients and community perspective (customer), two objectives and

  16. Evaluation of the whole body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (WB-PBPK) modeling of drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munir, Anum; Azam, Shumaila; Fazal, Sahar; Bhatti, A I

    2018-08-14

    The Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling is a supporting tool in drug discovery and improvement. Simulations produced by these models help to save time and aids in examining the effects of different variables on the pharmacokinetics of drugs. For this purpose, Sheila and Peters suggested a PBPK model capable of performing simulations to study a given drug absorption. There is a need to extend this model to the whole body entailing all another process like distribution, metabolism, and elimination, besides absorption. The aim of this scientific study is to hypothesize a WB-PBPK model through integrating absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination processes with the existing PBPK model.Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination models are designed, integrated with PBPK model and validated. For validation purposes, clinical records of few drugs are collected from the literature. The developed WB-PBPK model is affirmed by comparing the simulations produced by the model against the searched clinical data. . It is proposed that the WB-PBPK model may be used in pharmaceutical industries to create of the pharmacokinetic profiles of drug candidates for better outcomes, as it is advance PBPK model and creates comprehensive PK profiles for drug ADME in concentration-time plots. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A systematic and critical review of model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in patients with bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohiuddin, Syed

    2014-08-01

    Bipolar disorder (BD) is a chronic and relapsing mental illness with a considerable health-related and economic burden. The primary goal of pharmacotherapeutics for BD is to improve patients' well-being. The use of decision-analytic models is key in assessing the added value of the pharmacotherapeutics aimed at treating the illness, but concerns have been expressed about the appropriateness of different modelling techniques and about the transparency in the reporting of economic evaluations. This paper aimed to identify and critically appraise published model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in BD patients. A systematic review combining common terms for BD and economic evaluation was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PSYCINFO and ECONLIT. Studies identified were summarised and critically appraised in terms of the use of modelling technique, model structure and data sources. Considering the prognosis and management of BD, the possible benefits and limitations of each modelling technique are discussed. Fourteen studies were identified using model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in BD patients. Of these 14 studies, nine used Markov, three used discrete-event simulation (DES) and two used decision-tree models. Most of the studies (n = 11) did not include the rationale for the choice of modelling technique undertaken. Half of the studies did not include the risk of mortality. Surprisingly, no study considered the risk of having a mixed bipolar episode. This review identified various modelling issues that could potentially reduce the comparability of one pharmacotherapeutic intervention with another. Better use and reporting of the modelling techniques in the future studies are essential. DES modelling appears to be a flexible and comprehensive technique for evaluating the comparability of BD treatment options because of its greater flexibility of depicting the disease progression over time. However, depending on the research question

  18. Model-based evaluation of the short-circuited tripolar cuff configuration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreasen, Lotte N S; Struijk, Johannes J

    2006-05-01

    Recordings of neural information for use as feedback in functional electrical stimulation are often contaminated with interfering signals from muscles and from stimulus pulses. The cuff electrode used for the neural recording can be optimized to improve the S/I ratio. In this work, we evaluate a model of both the nerve signal and the interfering signals recorded by a cuff, and subsequently use this model to study the signal to interference ratio of different cuff designs and to evaluate a recently introduced short-circuited tripolar cuff configuration. The results of the model showed good agreement with results from measurements in rabbits and confirmed the superior performance of the short-circuited tripolar configuration as compared with the traditionally used tripolar configuration.

  19. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/5. Models based on site characterization 1986-1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhen, I.; Stanfors, R.; Wikberg, P.

    1997-10-01

    The pre-investigations for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were started in 1986 and involved extensive field measurements, aimed at characterizing the rock formations with regard to geology, geohydrology, hydrochemistry and rock mechanics. Predictions for the excavation phase were made prior to excavation of the laboratory which was started in the autumn of 1990. The predictions concern five key issues: lithology and geological structures, groundwater flow, hydrochemistry, transport of solutes and mechanical stability. During 1996 the results from the pre-investigations and the excavation of the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were evaluated and were compiled in geological, mechanical stability, geohydrological, groundwater chemical and transport-of-solutes models. The model concepts and the models of 1996 are presented in this report. The model developments from the pre-investigation phase up to the models made 1996 are also presented briefly

  20. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/5. Models based on site characterization 1986-1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhen, I. [ed.; Gustafsson, Gunnar [VBB Viak AB, Goeteborg (Sweden); Stanfors, R. [RS Consulting, Lund (Sweden); Wikberg, P. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1997-10-01

    The pre-investigations for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were started in 1986 and involved extensive field measurements, aimed at characterizing the rock formations with regard to geology, geohydrology, hydrochemistry and rock mechanics. Predictions for the excavation phase were made prior to excavation of the laboratory which was started in the autumn of 1990. The predictions concern five key issues: lithology and geological structures, groundwater flow, hydrochemistry, transport of solutes and mechanical stability. During 1996 the results from the pre-investigations and the excavation of the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were evaluated and were compiled in geological, mechanical stability, geohydrological, groundwater chemical and transport-of-solutes models. The model concepts and the models of 1996 are presented in this report. The model developments from the pre-investigation phase up to the models made 1996 are also presented briefly. 317 refs, figs, tabs.

  1. Exxon Nuclear WREM-based NJP-BWR ECCS evaluation model and example application to the Oyster Creek Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krysinski, T.L.; Bjornard, T.A.; Steves, L.H.

    1975-01-01

    A proposed integrated ECCS model for non-jet pump boiling water reactors is presented, using the RELAP4-EM/BLOWDOWN and RELAP4-EM/SMALL BREAK portions of the Exxon Nuclear WREM-based Generic PWR Evaluation Model coupled with the ENC NJP-BWR Fuel Heatup Model. The results of the application of the proposed model to Oyster Creek are summarized. The results of the break size sensitivity study using the proposed model for the Oyster Creek Plant are presented. The application of the above results yielded the MAPLHGR curves. Included are a description of the proposed non-jet pump boiling water reaction evaluation model, justification of its conformance with TOCFR50, Appendix K, the adopted Oyster Creek plant model, and results of the analysis and sensitivity studies. (auth)

  2. Model-based segmentation in orbital volume measurement with cone beam computed tomography and evaluation against current concepts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Maximilian E H; Gellrich, Nils-Claudius; Friese, Karl-Ingo; Becker, Matthias; Wolter, Franz-Erich; Lichtenstein, Juergen T; Stoetzer, Marcus; Rana, Majeed; Essig, Harald

    2016-01-01

    Objective determination of the orbital volume is important in the diagnostic process and in evaluating the efficacy of medical and/or surgical treatment of orbital diseases. Tools designed to measure orbital volume with computed tomography (CT) often cannot be used with cone beam CT (CBCT) because of inferior tissue representation, although CBCT has the benefit of greater availability and lower patient radiation exposure. Therefore, a model-based segmentation technique is presented as a new method for measuring orbital volume and compared to alternative techniques. Both eyes from thirty subjects with no known orbital pathology who had undergone CBCT as a part of routine care were evaluated (n = 60 eyes). Orbital volume was measured with manual, atlas-based, and model-based segmentation methods. Volume measurements, volume determination time, and usability were compared between the three methods. Differences in means were tested for statistical significance using two-tailed Student's t tests. Neither atlas-based (26.63 ± 3.15 mm(3)) nor model-based (26.87 ± 2.99 mm(3)) measurements were significantly different from manual volume measurements (26.65 ± 4.0 mm(3)). However, the time required to determine orbital volume was significantly longer for manual measurements (10.24 ± 1.21 min) than for atlas-based (6.96 ± 2.62 min, p < 0.001) or model-based (5.73 ± 1.12 min, p < 0.001) measurements. All three orbital volume measurement methods examined can accurately measure orbital volume, although atlas-based and model-based methods seem to be more user-friendly and less time-consuming. The new model-based technique achieves fully automated segmentation results, whereas all atlas-based segmentations at least required manipulations to the anterior closing. Additionally, model-based segmentation can provide reliable orbital volume measurements when CT image quality is poor.

  3. Performance Evaluation of Sadoghi Hospital Based on «EFQM» Organizational Excellence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Sanayeei

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Realm of health care that organizations have faced in recent years has been described with high level of dynamism and development. To survive in such conditions, performance evaluation can have an effective role in satisfying proper quality for services. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of Shahid Sadoghi Yazd hospital through EFQM approach. Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study. Data collection instrument was EFQM organization Excellence Model questionnaire which was completed by all the managers. The research data was gathered from a sample of 302 patients, staff, personnel and medical staff working in different parts of the hospital. Random stratified samples were selected and descriptive statistics were utilized in order to analyze the data. Results: The results revealed that Shahid Sadoughi hospital acquired 185.41 points out of the total 500 points considered in the model EFQM. In other words, the rating reflects the fact that regarding the defined desired position, the hospital has not achieved the desired rating. Conclusion: Since the hospital performance is posited in a low-middle class, much more attention is required in regard to therapeutic management in this hospital. Therefore, codifying an efficient and effective program to improve the hospital performance is necessary. Furthermore, it seems that EFQM model can be considered as a comprehensive model for performance evaluation in hospitals.

  4. The IIR evaluation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borlund, Pia

    2003-01-01

    An alternative approach to evaluation of interactive information retrieval (IIR) systems, referred to as the IIR evaluation model, is proposed. The model provides a framework for the collection and analysis of IR interaction data. The aim of the model is two-fold: 1) to facilitate the evaluation ...

  5. An Expert-Based Assessment Model for Evaluating Habitat Suitability of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Ruoh Juang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Farm ponds are important habitats for amphibians, birds, and other wildlife. In Taiwan, artificial ponds were originally created on farmlands for irrigation purposes and the needs of the domestic water supply. Although pond creation is a typical farming practice, it also provides habitats for pond-breeding amphibians. Thus, it is essential to understand the current status of habitats and their vulnerability regarding urgent conservation needs for target species. Günther’s frog (Hylarana guentheri, a pond-breeding amphibian, has a high sensitivity towards surrounding environmental changes, and can be used as an indicator species to assess habitat suitability. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to assess the habitat suitability of pond-breeding amphibians by using Günther’s frog as a pilot-study species. First, we collected frog survey data from Chiayi, Taiwan, from winter 2013 to spring 2015, and investigated the present status of the environmental conditions around the ponds. Next, expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method were applied to establish the hierarchical evaluation criteria regarding the habitat suitability assessment. Four indicators: the aquatic environments of farm ponds; the terrestrial environments around ponds; landscape connectivity; and the conservation perceptions of the residents, were determined as first-layer factors in the assessment criteria, while ten other indicators were defined as second-layer factors. Based on the established assessment criteria, we performed in situ habitat suitability evaluations on 69 selected sites and surveyed the perceptions of the residents using questionnaires. Results revealed that 19% of locations were rich in frog species with a high habitat suitability. However, 67% of locations showed signs of habitat degradation, which may imply a higher need in practicing habitat improvement or restoration. The Kappa value was 0.6061, which indicated a high

  6. Health Research Governance: Introduction of a New Web-based Research Evaluation Model in Iran: One-decade Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    MALEKZADEH, Reza; AKHONDZADEH, Shahin; EBADIFAR, Asghar; BARADARAN EFTEKHARI, Monir; OWLIA, Parviz; GHANEI, Mostafa; FALAHAT, Katayoun; HABIBI, Elham; SOBHANI, Zahra; DJALALINIA, Shirin; PAYKARI, Niloofar; MOJARRAB, Shahnaz; ELTEMASI, Masoumeh; LAALI, Reza

    2016-01-01

    Background: Governance is one of the main functions of Health Research System (HRS) that consist of four essential elements such as setting up evaluation system. The goal of this study was to introduce a new web based research evaluation model in Iran. Methods: Based on main elements of governance, research indicators have been clarified and with cooperation of technical team, appropriate software was designed. Three main steps in this study consist of developing of mission-oriented program, creating enabling environment and set up Iran Research Medical Portal as a center for research evaluation. Results: Fifty-two universities of medical sciences in three types have been participated. After training the evaluation focal points in all of medical universities, access to data entry and uploading all of documents were provided. Regarding to mission – based program, the contribution of medical universities in knowledge production was 60% for type one, 31% for type two and 9% for type three. The research priorities based on Essential National Health Research (ENHR) approach and mosaic model were gathered from universities of medical sciences and aggregated to nine main areas as national health research priorities. Ethical committees were established in all of medical universities. Conclusion: Web based research evaluation model is a comprehensive and integrated system for data collection in research. This system is appropriate tool to national health research ranking. PMID:27957437

  7. Wind farms providing secondary frequency regulation: evaluating the performance of model-based receding horizon control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Shapiro

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an extended version of our paper presented at the 2016 TORQUE conference (Shapiro et al., 2016. We investigate the use of wind farms to provide secondary frequency regulation for a power grid using a model-based receding horizon control framework. In order to enable real-time implementation, the control actions are computed based on a time-varying one-dimensional wake model. This model describes wake advection and wake interactions, both of which play an important role in wind farm power production. In order to test the control strategy, it is implemented in a large-eddy simulation (LES model of an 84-turbine wind farm using the actuator disk turbine representation. Rotor-averaged velocity measurements at each turbine are used to provide feedback for error correction. The importance of including the dynamics of wake advection in the underlying wake model is tested by comparing the performance of this dynamic-model control approach to a comparable static-model control approach that relies on a modified Jensen model. We compare the performance of both control approaches using two types of regulation signals, RegA and RegD, which are used by PJM, an independent system operator in the eastern United States. The poor performance of the static-model control relative to the dynamic-model control demonstrates that modeling the dynamics of wake advection is key to providing the proposed type of model-based coordinated control of large wind farms. We further explore the performance of the dynamic-model control via composite performance scores used by PJM to qualify plants for regulation services or markets. Our results demonstrate that the dynamic-model-controlled wind farm consistently performs well, passing the qualification threshold for all fast-acting RegD signals. For the RegA signal, which changes over slower timescales, the dynamic-model control leads to average performance that surpasses the qualification threshold, but further

  8. Energy Sustainability Evaluation Model Based on the Matter-Element Extension Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siqi Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy sustainability is of vital importance to regional sustainability, because energy sustainability is closely related to both regional economic growth and social stability. The existing energy sustainability evaluation methods lack a unified system to determine the relevant influencing factors, are relatively weak in quantitative analysis, and do not fully describe the ‘paradoxical’ characteristics of energy sustainability. To solve those problems and to reasonably and objectively evaluate energy sustainability, we propose an energy sustainability evaluation model based on the matter-element extension method. We first select energy sustainability evaluation indexes based on previous research and experience. Then, a variation coefficient method is used to determine the weights of these indexes. Finally, the study establishes the classical domain, joint domain, and the matter-element relationship to evaluate energy sustainability through matter-element extension. Data from Shandong Province is used as a case study to evaluate the region’s energy sustainability. The case study shows that the proposed energy sustainability evaluation model, based on the matter-element extension method, can effectively evaluate regional energy sustainability.

  9. Re-evaluation of model-based light-scattering spectroscopy for tissue spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Condon; Šćepanović, Obrad; Mirkovic, Jelena; McGee, Sasha; Yu, Chung-Chieh; Fulghum, Stephen; Wallace, Michael; Tunnell, James; Bechtel, Kate; Feld, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Model-based light scattering spectroscopy (LSS) seemed a promising technique for in-vivo diagnosis of dysplasia in multiple organs. In the studies, the residual spectrum, the difference between the observed and modeled diffuse reflectance spectra, was attributed to single elastic light scattering from epithelial nuclei, and diagnostic information due to nuclear changes was extracted from it. We show that this picture is incorrect. The actual single scattering signal arising from epithelial nuclei is much smaller than the previously computed residual spectrum, and does not have the wavelength dependence characteristic of Mie scattering. Rather, the residual spectrum largely arises from assuming a uniform hemoglobin distribution. In fact, hemoglobin is packaged in blood vessels, which alters the reflectance. When we include vessel packaging, which accounts for an inhomogeneous hemoglobin distribution, in the diffuse reflectance model, the reflectance is modeled more accurately, greatly reducing the amplitude of the residual spectrum. These findings are verified via numerical estimates based on light propagation and Mie theory, tissue phantom experiments, and analysis of published data measured from Barrett’s esophagus. In future studies, vessel packaging should be included in the model of diffuse reflectance and use of model-based LSS should be discontinued. PMID:19405760

  10. Topological Vulnerability Evaluation Model Based on Fractal Dimension of Complex Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Gou

    Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on network security, much more attentions have been attracted to the vulnerability of complex networks. In this paper, the fractal dimension, which can reflect space-filling capacity of networks, is redefined as the origin moment of the edge betweenness to obtain a more reasonable evaluation of vulnerability. The proposed model combining multiple evaluation indexes not only overcomes the shortage of average edge betweenness's failing to evaluate vulnerability of some special networks, but also characterizes the topological structure and highlights the space-filling capacity of networks. The applications to six US airline networks illustrate the practicality and effectiveness of our proposed method, and the comparisons with three other commonly used methods further validate the superiority of our proposed method.

  11. Systematic Evaluation of Methods for Integration of Transcriptomic Data into Constraint-Based Models of Metabolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Daniel; Herrgard, Markus

    2014-01-01

    of these methods has not been critically evaluated and compared. This work presents a survey of recently published methods that use transcript levels to try to improve metabolic flux predictions either by generating flux distributions or by creating context-specific models. A subset of these methods...... is then systematically evaluated using published data from three different case studies in E. coli and S. cerevisiae. The flux predictions made by different methods using transcriptomic data are compared against experimentally determined extracellular and intracellular fluxes (from 13C-labeling data). The sensitivity...... of the results to method-specific parameters is also evaluated, as well as their robustness to noise in the data. The results show that none of the methods outperforms the others for all cases. Also, it is observed that for many conditions, the predictions obtained by simple flux balance analysis using growth...

  12. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Xue Jin; Xiaoxia Shi; Jintian Gao; Tongbin Xu; Kedong Yin

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is di...

  13. Evaluation of metal artifacts in MVCT systems using a model based correction method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paudel, M. R.; Mackenzie, M.; Fallone, B. G.; Rathee, S. [Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Division, University of Alberta, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada); Department of Medical Physics, Cross Cancer Institute, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada) and Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Division, University of Alberta, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada); Department of Physics, University of Alberta, 11322-89 Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2G7 (Canada); Department of Medical Physics, Cross Cancer Institute, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada) and Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Division, University of Alberta, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada); Department of Medical Physics, Cross Cancer Institute, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada) and Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Division, University of Alberta, 11560 University Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2 (Canada)

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of a model based image reconstruction method in reducing metal artifacts in the megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) images of a phantom representing bilateral hip prostheses and to compare with the filtered-backprojection (FBP) technique. Methods: An iterative maximum likelihood polychromatic algorithm for CT (IMPACT) is used with an additional model for the pair/triplet production process and the energy dependent response of the detectors. The beam spectra for an in-house bench-top and TomoTherapy Trade-Mark-Sign MVCTs are modeled for use in IMPACT. The empirical energy dependent response of detectors is calculated using a constrained optimization technique that predicts the measured attenuation of the beam by various thicknesses (0-24 cm) of solid water slabs. A cylindrical (19.1 cm diameter) plexiglass phantom containing various cylindrical inserts of relative electron densities 0.295-1.695 positioned between two steel rods (2.7 cm diameter) is scanned in the bench-top MVCT that utilizes the bremsstrahlung radiation from a 6 MeV electron beam passed through 4 cm solid water on the Varian Clinac 2300C and in the imaging beam of the TomoTherapy Trade-Mark-Sign MVCT. The FBP technique in bench-top MVCT reconstructs images from raw signal normalized to air scan and corrected for beam hardening using a uniform plexiglass cylinder (20 cm diameter). The IMPACT starts with a FBP reconstructed seed image and reconstructs the final image in 150 iterations. Results: In both MVCTs, FBP produces visible dark shading in the image connecting the steel rods. In the IMPACT reconstructed images this shading is nearly removed and the uniform background is restored. The average attenuation coefficients of the inserts and the background are very close to the corresponding values in the absence of the steel inserts. In the FBP images of the bench-top MVCT, the shading causes 4%-9.5% underestimation of electron density at the central inserts

  14. The Sustainable Island Development Evaluation Model and Its Application Based on the Nonstructural Decision Fuzzy Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quanming Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complexity and diversity of the issue of sustainable island development, no widely accepted and applicable evaluation system model regarding the issue currently exists. In this paper, we discuss and establish the sustainable development indicator system and the model approach from the perspective of resources, the island environment, the island development status, the island social development, and the island intelligence development. We reference the sustainable development theory and the sustainable development indicator system method concerning land region, combine the character of the sustainable island development, analyze and evaluate the extent of the sustainable island development, orient development, and identify the key and limited factors of sustainable island development capability. This research adopts the entropy method and the nonstructural decision fuzzy set theory model to determine the weight of the evaluating indicators. Changhai County was selected as the subject of the research, which consisted of a quantitative study of its sustainable development status from 2001 to 2008 to identify the key factors influencing its sustainability development, existing problems, and limited factors and to provide basic technical support for ocean development planning and economic development planning.

  15. Evaluation of a whole-farm model for pasture-based dairy systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beukes, P C; Palliser, C C; Macdonald, K A; Lancaster, J A S; Levy, G; Thorrold, B S; Wastney, M E

    2008-06-01

    In the temperate climate of New Zealand, animals can be grazed outdoors all year round. The pasture is supplemented with conserved feed, with the amount being determined by seasonal pasture growth, genetics of the herd, and stocking rate. The large number of factors that affect production makes it impractical and expensive to use field trials to explore all the farm system options. A model of an in situ-grazed pasture system has been developed to provide a tool for developing and testing novel farm systems; for example, different levels of bought-in supplements and different levels of nitrogen fertilizer application, to maintain sustainability or environmental integrity and profitability. It consists of a software framework that links climate information, on a daily basis, with dynamic, mechanistic component-models for pasture growth and animal metabolism, as well as management policies. A unique feature is that the component models were developed and published by other groups, and are retained in their original software language. The aim of this study was to compare the model, called the whole-farm model (WFM) with a farm trial that was conducted over 3 yr and in which data were collected specifically for evaluating the WFM. Data were used from the first year to develop the WFM and data from the second and third year to evaluate the model. The model predicted annual pasture production, end-of-season cow liveweight, cow body condition score, and pasture cover across season with relative prediction error pasture and supplement intake were predicted with acceptable accuracy, suggesting that the metabolic conversion of feed to fat, protein, and lactose in the mammary gland needs to be refined. Because feed growth and intake predictions were acceptable, economic predictions can be made using the WFM, with an adjustment for milk yield, to test different management policies, alterations in climate, or the use of genetically improved animals, pastures, or crops.

  16. Developing and Evaluating Creativity Gamification Rehabilitation System: The Application of PCA-ANFIS Based Emotions Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Chung-Ho; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to explore the factors in a patient's rehabilitation achievement after a total knee replacement (TKR) patient exercises, using a PCA-ANFIS emotion model-based game rehabilitation system, which combines virtual reality (VR) and motion capture technology. The researchers combine a principal component analysis (PCA) and an adaptive…

  17. A model based method for evaluation of crop operation scenarios in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooster, van 't A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract

    This research initiated a model-based method to analyse labour in crop production systems and to quantify effects of system changes in order to contribute to effective greenhouse crop cultivation systems with efficient use of human labour and technology. This

  18. Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica N. Iglecia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla, occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as "optimal habitat" by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

  19. Gold-standard evaluation of a folksonomy-based ontology learning model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djuana, E.

    2018-03-01

    Folksonomy, as one result of collaborative tagging process, has been acknowledged for its potential in improving categorization and searching of web resources. However, folksonomy contains ambiguities such as synonymy and polysemy as well as different abstractions or generality problem. To maximize its potential, some methods for associating tags of folksonomy with semantics and structural relationships have been proposed such as using ontology learning method. This paper evaluates our previous work in ontology learning according to gold-standard evaluation approach in comparison to a notable state-of-the-art work and several baselines. The results show that our method is comparable to the state-of the art work which further validate our approach as has been previously validated using task-based evaluation approach.

  20. Evaluating score- and feature-based likelihood ratio models for multivariate continuous data: applied to forensic MDMA comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolck, A.; Ni, H.; Lopatka, M.

    2015-01-01

    Likelihood ratio (LR) models are moving into the forefront of forensic evidence evaluation as these methods are adopted by a diverse range of application areas in forensic science. We examine the fundamentally different results that can be achieved when feature- and score-based methodologies are

  1. Graph configuration model based evaluation of the education-occupation match.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadar, Laszlo; Abonyi, Janos

    2018-01-01

    To study education-occupation matchings we developed a bipartite network model of education to work transition and a graph configuration model based metric. We studied the career paths of 15 thousand Hungarian students based on the integrated database of the National Tax Administration, the National Health Insurance Fund, and the higher education information system of the Hungarian Government. A brief analysis of gender pay gap and the spatial distribution of over-education is presented to demonstrate the background of the research and the resulted open dataset. We highlighted the hierarchical and clustered structure of the career paths based on the multi-resolution analysis of the graph modularity. The results of the cluster analysis can support policymakers to fine-tune the fragmented program structure of higher education.

  2. Evaluation of Performance of Investment Funds Based on Decision Models (DEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Samet

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Selection of a suitable investment funds is very important from investors' point of view and may have a significant impact on the profit or loss of the funds. Therefore, evaluation of performance of investment funds to choose the most suitable fund will be given special emphasis. One of the new techniques for evaluating the performance of the Funds based on efficiency is the Data Envelopment Analysis technique. Accordingly, the present study is aimed to analyze and evaluate the performance of investment Funds in capital market of Iran, using the technique of efficiency evaluation through data envelopment analysis technique (DEA. This research is a descriptive - applicable study and to analyze the efficiency and effectiveness, 53 investment funds in the capital market of Iran in 2013 were considered as the sample. To analyze the efficiency of these funds, data envelopment analysis (DEA is used. Research findings showed that in 2013, of a total of 53 examined funds, 11 funds were in the efficiency situation and the other 42 funds were in a state of inefficiency. Also the reference funds and virtual composited funds of all inefficient funds were evaluated.

  3. Theory-Based Stakeholder Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Morten Balle; Vedung, Evert

    2010-01-01

    This article introduces a new approach to program theory evaluation called theory-based stakeholder evaluation or the TSE model for short. Most theory-based approaches are program theory driven and some are stakeholder oriented as well. Practically, all of the latter fuse the program perceptions of the various stakeholder groups into one unitary…

  4. An agent-based hydroeconomic model to evaluate water policies in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Gorelick, S.

    2014-12-01

    Modern water systems can be characterized by a complex network of institutional and private actors that represent competing sectors and interests. Identifying solutions to enhance water security in such systems calls for analysis that can adequately account for this level of complexity and interaction. Our work focuses on the development of a hierarchical, multi-agent, hydroeconomic model that attempts to realistically represent complex interactions between hydrologic and multi-faceted human systems. The model is applied to Jordan, one of the most water-poor countries in the world. In recent years, the water crisis in Jordan has escalated due to an ongoing drought and influx of refugees from regional conflicts. We adopt a modular approach in which biophysical modules simulate natural and engineering phenomena, and human modules represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules employ agent-based modeling, in which agents act as autonomous decision makers at the transboundary, state, organizational, and user levels. A systematic nomenclature and conceptual framework is used to characterize model agents and modules. Concepts from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) are adopted to promote clear conceptualization of model classes and process sequencing, establishing a foundation for full deployment of the integrated model in a scalable object-oriented programming environment. Although the framework is applied to the Jordanian water context, it is generalizable to other regional human-natural freshwater supply systems.

  5. Evaluating the influences of biomass burning during 2006 BASE-ASIA: a regional chemical transport modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. C. Hsu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA's 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA. Two typical episode periods (27–28 March and 13–14 April were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia contributed to the surface CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg m−3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species during the intense episodes were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg m−3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. In March, the impact of biomass burning mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and southern China, while in April the impact becomes slightly broader and even could go up to the Yangtze River Delta region.

    Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia, CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward transport from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence process during the long-range transport contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind

  6. Evaluating the influences of biomass burning during 2006 BASE-ASIA: a regional chemical transport modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, J. S.; Hsu, N. C.; Gao, Y.; Huang, K.; Li, C.; Lin, N.-H.; Tsay, S.-C.

    2012-05-01

    To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA's 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Two typical episode periods (27-28 March and 13-14 April) were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia) contributed to the surface CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg m-3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species during the intense episodes were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg m-3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. In March, the impact of biomass burning mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and southern China, while in April the impact becomes slightly broader and even could go up to the Yangtze River Delta region. Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia), CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward transport from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence process during the long-range transport contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind areas, particularly during biomass burning episodes. This modeling study might provide constraints of lower limit. An additional study is underway for an active

  7. A Hybrid Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Web-based Marketing in Iran's Airline Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    saeed safari

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to propose a model for assessing the effectiveness of web-based marketing in Iran's airline industry. Thence in the first step after identifying the components of the model on the basis of literature review and opinions of experts in the field of marketing and sales related to airline industry, the final components of the model were extracted .In the second step, the Dematel method has been used to determine the existing relations between criteria. In the following, we utilized the ANP to determine the weight of each criterion with regard to the existing dependency and feedback between criteria as the third step. Finally in the last step of this research three reputable Iranian Companies in the airline industry were ranked by the use of VICTOR method. The results obtained by Dematel method indicated the internal and external communications between criteria of the assessing effectiveness of web-based marketing model. Meanwhile, the results of ANP suggested that “Reliability” was in the first place in terms of weight and importance among all criteria of the model. Result of VICOR showed that Mahan Company had the minimum distance to the ideal level.

  8. Summary report on the evaluation of a 1977--1985 edited sorption data base for isotherm modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polzer, W.L.; Beckman, R.J.; Fuentes, H.R.; Yong, C.; Chan, P.; Rao, M.G.

    1993-01-01

    Sorption data bases collected by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) from 1977 to 1985 for the Yucca Mountain Project.(YMP) have been inventoried and fitted with isotherm expressions. Effects of variables (e.g., particle size) on the isotherm were also evaluated. The sorption data are from laboratory batch measurements which were not designed specifically for isotherm modeling. However a limited number of data sets permitted such modeling. The analysis of those isotherm data can aid in the design of future sorption experiments and can provide expressions to be used in radionuclide transport modeling. Over 1200 experimental observations were inventoried for their adequacy to be modeled b isotherms and to evaluate the effects of variables on isotherms. About 15% of the observations provided suitable data sets for modeling. The data sets were obtained under conditions that include ambient temperature and two atmospheres, air and CO 2

  9. Sensitivity-Based Modeling of Evaluating Surface Runoff and Sediment Load using Digital and Analog Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olotu Yahaya

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of runoff- sediment measurement and evaluation using automated and convectional runoff-meters was carried out at Meteorological and Hydrological Station of Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi using two runoff plots (ABCDa and EFGHm of area 2m 2 each, depth 0.26 m and driven into the soil to the depth of 0.13m. Runoff depths and intensities were measured from each of the positioned runoff plot. Automated runoff-meter has a measuring accuracy of ±0.001l/±0.025 mm and rainfall depth-intensity was measured using tipping-bucket rainguage during the period of 14-month of experimentation. Minimum and maximum rainfall depths of 1.2 and 190.3 mm correspond to measured runoff depths (MRo of 0.0 mm for both measurement approaches and 60.4 mm and 48.9 mm respectively. Automated runoffmeter provides precise, accurate and instantaneous result over the convectional measurement of surface runoff. Runoff measuring accuracy for automated runoff-meter from the plot (ABCDa produces R 2 = 0.99; while R 2 = 0.96 for manual evaluation in plot (EFGHm. WEPP and SWAT models were used to simulate the obtained hydrological variables from the applied measurement mechanisms. The outputs of sensitivity simulation analysis indicate that data from automated measuring systems gives a better modelling index and such could be used for running robust runoff-sediment predictive modelling technique under different reservoir sedimentation and water management scenarios.

  10. Evaluation of oxime efficacy in nerve agent poisoning: Development of a kinetic-based dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worek, Franz; Szinicz, Ladislaus; Eyer, Peter; Thiermann, Horst

    2005-01-01

    The widespread use of organophosphorus compounds (OP) as pesticides and the repeated misuse of highly toxic OP as chemical warfare agents (nerve agents) emphasize the necessity for the development of effective medical countermeasures. Standard treatment with atropine and the established acetylcholinesterase (AChE) reactivators, obidoxime and pralidoxime, is considered to be ineffective with certain nerve agents due to low oxime effectiveness. From obvious ethical reasons only animal experiments can be used to evaluate new oximes as nerve agent antidotes. However, the extrapolation of data from animal to humans is hampered by marked species differences. Since reactivation of OP-inhibited AChE is considered to be the main mechanism of action of oximes, human erythrocyte AChE can be exploited to test the efficacy of new oximes. By combining enzyme kinetics (inhibition, reactivation, aging) with OP toxicokinetics and oxime pharmacokinetics a dynamic in vitro model was developed which allows the calculation of AChE activities at different scenarios. This model was validated with data from pesticide-poisoned patients and simulations were performed for intravenous and percutaneous nerve agent exposure and intramuscular oxime treatment using published data. The model presented may serve as a tool for defining effective oxime concentrations and for optimizing oxime treatment. In addition, this model can be useful for the development of meaningful therapeutic animal models

  11. Therapeutic evaluation of grain based functional food formulation in a geriatric animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teradal, Deepa; Joshi, Neena; Aladakatti, Ravindranath H

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates the effect of wholesome grain based functional food formulation, on clinical and biochemical parameters in 24-30 months old Wistar albino geriatric rats, corresponding to human age 60-75 years. Animals were randomly divided into five, groups. Experimental diets were compared to the basal rat diet (Group I). Four food, formulation were-wheat based (Group II), finger millet based (Group III), wheat based, diet + fenugreek seed powder (Group IV), finger millet based diet + fenugreek powder, (Group V). These five types of diets were fed to the experimental rats for 6 weeks. Hematological and biochemical parameters were evaluated. The results showed that, feed intake was influenced by the type of feed. Diets supplemented with, fenugreek (Group IV) caused a significant increase in serum hemoglobin. The total serum protein values were significantly highest in Group III. Total serum albumin was found to be lower in Group I and highest in Group II. The concentration of BUN was highest in Group I and the lowest in control diet. Serum cholesterol and glucose were significantly reduced in Group IV. Several hematological and serum mineral values were influenced by the type of diet. The type of diet did not influence the organs weight. A moderate hypoglycemic and hypercholesterolemic effect was observed in composite mix fed rats. This study clearly justifies the recommendation to use wholesome grain based functional foods for geriatric population.

  12. Prediction of power ramp defects - development of a physically based model and evaluation of existing criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notley, M.J.F.; Kohn, E.

    2001-01-01

    Power-ramp induced fuel failure is not a problem in the present CANDU reactors. The current empirical correlations that define probability of failure do not agree one-with-another and do not allow extrapolation outside the database. A new methodology, based on physical processes, is presented and compared to data. The methodology calculates the pre-ramp sheath stress and the incremental stress during the ramp, and whether or not there is a defect is predicted based on a failure threshold stress. The proposed model confirms the deductions made by daSilva from an empirical 'fit' to data from the 1988 PNGS power ramp failure incident. It is recommended that daSilvas' correlation be used as reference for OPG (Ontario Power Generation) power reactor fuel, and that extrapolation be performed using the new model. (author)

  13. A multiscale model to evaluate the efficacy of anticancer therapies based on chimeric polypeptide nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, L. R.; Martins, M. L.

    2011-01-01

    A multiscale model for tumor growth and its chemotherapy using conjugate nanoparticles is presented, and the corresponding therapeutic outcomes are evaluated. It is found that doxorubicin assembled into chimeric polypeptide nanoparticles cannot eradicate either vascularized primary tumors or avascular micrometastasis even administrated at loads close to their maximum tolerated doses. Furthermore, an effective and safety treatment demands for conjugate nanoparticles targeted to the malignant cells with much higher specificity and affinity than those currently observed in order to leave most of the normal tissues unaffected and to ensure a fast intracellular drug accumulation.

  14. Evaluation of earthquake-triggered landslides in el Salvador using a Gis based newmark model

    OpenAIRE

    García Rodríguez, María José; Havenith, Hans; Benito Oterino, Belen

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a model for evaluating earthquake-triggered landslides hazard following the Newmark methodology is developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS). It is applied to El Salvador, one of the most seismically active regions in Central America, where the last severe destructive earthquakes occurred in January 13th and February 13th, 2001. The first of these earthquakes triggered more the 500 landslides and killed at least 844 people. This study is centred on the area (10x6km) w...

  15. Evaluation of the antioxidant impact of ginger-based kombucha on the murine breast cancer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salafzoon, Samaneh; Mahmoodzadeh Hosseini, Hamideh; Halabian, Raheleh

    2017-10-21

    Background Abnormal metabolism is a common event in cancerous cells. For example, the increase of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, particularly due to aerobic respiration during invasive stage, results in cancer progression. Herein, the impact of kombucha tea prepared from ginger on the alteration of antioxidant agents was assessed in the breast cancer animal model. Methods Two types of kombucha tea with or without ginger were administered to BALB/c mice before and after tumor challenge. Superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase, glutathione (GSH) and malondialdehyde (MDA) were evaluated in tumor, liver and kidney. Results Administration of kombucha ginger tea significantly decreased catalase activity as well as GSH and MDA level in tumor homogenate (pkombucha ginger tea (pkombucha prepared from ginger could exert minor antioxidant impacts by balancing multi antioxidant factors in different tissues in the breast cancer models.

  16. Predicting speech intelligibility in adverse conditions: evaluation of the speech-based envelope power spectrum model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

    2011-01-01

    conditions by comparing predictions to measured data from [Kjems et al. (2009). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 126 (3), 1415-1426] where speech is mixed with four different interferers, including speech-shaped noise, bottle noise, car noise, and cafe noise. The model accounts well for the differences in intelligibility......The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) [Jørgensen and Dau (2011). J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 130 (3), 1475–1487] estimates the envelope signal-to-noise ratio (SNRenv) of distorted speech and accurately describes the speech recognition thresholds (SRT) for normal-hearing listeners...... observed for the different interferers. None of the standardized models successfully describe these data....

  17. Model-based economic evaluations in smoking cessation and their transferability to new contexts: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Marrit L; Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Evers, Silvia; de Kinderen, Reina J A; Kulchaitanaroaj, Puttarin; Pokhrel, Subhash

    2017-06-01

    To identify different types of models used in economic evaluations of smoking cessation, analyse the quality of the included models examining their attributes and ascertain their transferability to a new context. A systematic review of the literature on the economic evaluation of smoking cessation interventions published between 1996 and April 2015, identified via Medline, EMBASE, National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Health Technology Assessment (HTA). The checklist-based quality of the included studies and transferability scores was based on the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURONHEED) criteria. Studies that were not in smoking cessation, not original research, not a model-based economic evaluation, that did not consider adult population and not from a high-income country were excluded. Among the 64 economic evaluations included in the review, the state-transition Markov model was the most frequently used method (n = 30/64), with quality adjusted life years (QALY) being the most frequently used outcome measure in a life-time horizon. A small number of the included studies (13 of 64) were eligible for EURONHEED transferability checklist. The overall transferability scores ranged from 0.50 to 0.97, with an average score of 0.75. The average score per section was 0.69 (range = 0.35-0.92). The relative transferability of the studies could not be established due to a limitation present in the EURONHEED method. All existing economic evaluations in smoking cessation lack in one or more key study attributes necessary to be fully transferable to a new context. © 2017 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

  18. Evaluating the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Based on an Artificial Intelligence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome is worldwide public health problem and is a serious threat to people's health and lives. Understanding the relationship between metabolic syndrome and the physical symptoms is a difficult and challenging task, and few studies have been performed in this field. It is important to classify adults who are at high risk of metabolic syndrome without having to use a biochemical index and, likewise, it is important to develop technology that has a high economic rate of return to simplify the complexity of this detection. In this paper, an artificial intelligence model was developed to identify adults at risk of metabolic syndrome based on physical signs; this artificial intelligence model achieved more powerful capacity for classification compared to the PCLR (principal component logistic regression model. A case study was performed based on the physical signs data, without using a biochemical index, that was collected from the staff of Lanzhou Grid Company in Gansu province of China. The results show that the developed artificial intelligence model is an effective classification system for identifying individuals at high risk of metabolic syndrome.

  19. Blinded prospective evaluation of computer-based mechanistic schizophrenia disease model for predicting drug response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Geerts

    Full Text Available The tremendous advances in understanding the neurobiological circuits involved in schizophrenia have not translated into more effective treatments. An alternative strategy is to use a recently published 'Quantitative Systems Pharmacology' computer-based mechanistic disease model of cortical/subcortical and striatal circuits based upon preclinical physiology, human pathology and pharmacology. The physiology of 27 relevant dopamine, serotonin, acetylcholine, norepinephrine, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA and glutamate-mediated targets is calibrated using retrospective clinical data on 24 different antipsychotics. The model was challenged to predict quantitatively the clinical outcome in a blinded fashion of two experimental antipsychotic drugs; JNJ37822681, a highly selective low-affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist and ocaperidone, a very high affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist, using only pharmacology and human positron emission tomography (PET imaging data. The model correctly predicted the lower performance of JNJ37822681 on the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS total score and the higher extra-pyramidal symptom (EPS liability compared to olanzapine and the relative performance of ocaperidone against olanzapine, but did not predict the absolute PANSS total score outcome and EPS liability for ocaperidone, possibly due to placebo responses and EPS assessment methods. Because of its virtual nature, this modeling approach can support central nervous system research and development by accounting for unique human drug properties, such as human metabolites, exposure, genotypes and off-target effects and can be a helpful tool for drug discovery and development.

  20. Development and Evaluation of a Simple, Multifactorial Model Based on Landing Performance to Indicate Injury Risk in Surfing Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Lina E; Tran, Tai T; Nimphius, Sophia; Raymond, Ellen; Secomb, Josh L; Farley, Oliver R L; Newton, Robert U; Steele, Julie R; Sheppard, Jeremy M

    2015-11-01

    To develop and evaluate a multifactorial model based on landing performance to estimate injury risk for surfing athletes. Five measures were collected from 78 competitive surfing athletes and used to create a model to serve as a screening tool for landing tasks and potential injury risk. In the second part of the study, the model was evaluated using junior surfing athletes (n = 32) with a longitudinal follow-up of their injuries over 26 wk. Two models were compared based on the collected data, and magnitude-based inferences were applied to determine the likelihood of differences between injured and noninjured groups. The study resulted in a model based on 5 measures--ankle-dorsiflexion range of motion, isometric midthigh-pull lower-body strength, time to stabilization during a drop-and-stick (DS) landing, relative peak force during a DS landing, and frontal-plane DS-landing video analysis--for male and female professional surfers and male and female junior surfers. Evaluation of the model showed that a scaled probability score was more likely to detect injuries in junior surfing athletes and reported a correlation of r = .66, P = .001, with a model of equal variable importance. The injured (n = 7) surfers had a lower probability score (0.18 ± 0.16) than the noninjured group (n = 25, 0.36 ± 0.15), with 98% likelihood, Cohen d = 1.04. The proposed model seems sensitive and easy to implement and interpret. Further research is recommended to show full validity for potential adaptations for other sports.

  1. Pragmatic geometric model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamer, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Quantification of subsurface model reliability is mathematically and technically demanding as there are many different sources of uncertainty and some of the factors can be assessed merely in a subjective way. For many practical applications in industry or risk assessment (e. g. geothermal drilling) a quantitative estimation of possible geometric variations in depth unit is preferred over relative numbers because of cost calculations for different scenarios. The talk gives an overview of several factors that affect the geometry of structural subsurface models that are based upon typical geological survey organization (GSO) data like geological maps, borehole data and conceptually driven construction of subsurface elements (e. g. fault network). Within the context of the trans-European project "GeoMol" uncertainty analysis has to be very pragmatic also because of different data rights, data policies and modelling software between the project partners. In a case study a two-step evaluation methodology for geometric subsurface model uncertainty is being developed. In a first step several models of the same volume of interest have been calculated by omitting successively more and more input data types (seismic constraints, fault network, outcrop data). The positions of the various horizon surfaces are then compared. The procedure is equivalent to comparing data of various levels of detail and therefore structural complexity. This gives a measure of the structural significance of each data set in space and as a consequence areas of geometric complexity are identified. These areas are usually very data sensitive hence geometric variability in between individual data points in these areas is higher than in areas of low structural complexity. Instead of calculating a multitude of different models by varying some input data or parameters as it is done by Monte-Carlo-simulations, the aim of the second step of the evaluation procedure (which is part of the ongoing work) is to

  2. The Alpha Stem Cell Clinic: a model for evaluating and delivering stem cell-based therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trounson, Alan; DeWitt, Natalie D; Feigal, Ellen G

    2012-01-01

    Cellular therapies require the careful preparation, expansion, characterization, and delivery of cells in a clinical environment. There are major challenges associated with the delivery of cell therapies and high costs that will limit the companies available to fully evaluate their merit in clinical trials, and will handicap their application at the present financial environment. Cells will be manufactured in good manufacturing practice or near-equivalent facilities with prerequisite safety practices in place, and cell delivery systems will be specialized and require well-trained medical and nursing staff, technicians or nurses trained to handle cells once delivered, patient counselors, as well as statisticians and database managers who will oversee the monitoring of patients in relatively long-term follow-up studies. The model proposed for Alpha Stem Cell Clinics will initially use the capacities and infrastructure that exist in the most advanced tertiary medical clinics for delivery of established bone marrow stem cell therapies. As the research evolves, they will incorporate improved procedures and cell preparations. This model enables commercialization of medical devices, reagents, and other products required for cell therapies. A carefully constructed cell therapy clinical infrastructure with the requisite scientific, technical, and medical expertise and operational efficiencies will have the capabilities to address three fundamental and critical functions: 1) fostering clinical trials; 2) evaluating and establishing safe and effective therapies, and 3) developing and maintaining the delivery of therapies approved by the Food and Drug Administration, or other regulatory agencies.

  3. Estimating the Probability of Vegetation to Be Groundwater Dependent Based on the Evaluation of Tree Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel C. Pérez Hoyos

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDEs are increasingly threatened by humans’ rising demand for water resources. Consequently, it is imperative to identify the location of GDEs to protect them. This paper develops a methodology to identify the probability of an ecosystem to be groundwater dependent. Probabilities are obtained by modeling the relationship between the known locations of GDEs and factors influencing groundwater dependence, namely water table depth and climatic aridity index. Probabilities are derived for the state of Nevada, USA, using modeled water table depth and aridity index values obtained from the Global Aridity database. The model selected results from the performance comparison of classification trees (CT and random forests (RF. Based on a threshold-independent accuracy measure, RF has a better ability to generate probability estimates. Considering a threshold that minimizes the misclassification rate for each model, RF also proves to be more accurate. Regarding training accuracy, performance measures such as accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are higher for RF. For the test set, higher values of accuracy and kappa for CT highlight the fact that these measures are greatly affected by low prevalence. As shown for RF, the choice of the cutoff probability value has important consequences on model accuracy and the overall proportion of locations where GDEs are found.

  4. The development of macros program-based cognitive evaluation model via e-learning course mathematics in senior high school based on curriculum 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djoko Purnomo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The specific purpose of this research is: The implementation of the application of the learning tool with a form cognitive learning evaluation model based macros program via E-learning at High School grade X at july-december based on 2013 curriculum. The method used in this research followed the procedures is research and development by Borg and Gall [2]. In second year, population analysis has conducted at several universities in Semarang. The results of the research and application development of macro program-based cognitive evaluation model is effective which can be seen from (1 the student learning result is over KKM, (2 The student independency affects learning result positively, (3 the student learning a result by using macros program-based cognitive evaluation model is better than students class control. Based on the results above, the development of macros program-based cognitive evaluation model that have been tested have met quality standards according to Akker (1999. Large-scale testing includes operational phase of field testing and final product revision, i.e trials in the wider class that includes students in mathematics education major in several universities, they are the Universitas PGRI Semarang, Universitas Islam Sultan Agung and the Universitas Islam NegeriWalisongo Semarang. The positive responses is given by students at the Universitas PGRI Semarang, Universitas Islam Sultan Agung and the Universitas Islam NegeriWalisongo Semarang.

  5. Evaluation of three energy balance-based evaporation models for estimating monthly evaporation for five lakes using derived heat storage changes from a hysteresis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Zheng; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

    2017-02-01

    The heat storage changes (Q t) can be a significant component of the energy balance in lakes, and it is important to account for Q t for reasonable estimation of evaporation at monthly and finer timescales if the energy balance-based evaporation models are used. However, Q t has been often neglected in many studies due to the lack of required water temperature data. A simple hysteresis model (Q t = a*Rn + b + c* dRn/dt) has been demonstrated to reasonably estimate Q t from the readily available net all wave radiation (Rn) and three locally calibrated coefficients (a-c) for lakes and reservoirs. As a follow-up study, we evaluated whether this hysteresis model could enable energy balance-based evaporation models to yield good evaporation estimates. The representative monthly evaporation data were compiled from published literature and used as ground-truth to evaluate three energy balance-based evaporation models for five lakes. The three models in different complexity are De Bruin-Keijman (DK), Penman, and a new model referred to as Duan-Bastiaanssen (DB). All three models require Q t as input. Each model was run in three scenarios differing in the input Q t (S1: measured Q t; S2: modelled Q t from the hysteresis model; S3: neglecting Q t) to evaluate the impact of Q t on the modelled evaporation. Evaluation showed that the modelled Q t agreed well with measured counterparts for all five lakes. It was confirmed that the hysteresis model with locally calibrated coefficients can predict Q t with good accuracy for the same lake. Using modelled Q t as inputs all three evaporation models yielded comparably good monthly evaporation to those using measured Q t as inputs and significantly better than those neglecting Q t for the five lakes. The DK model requiring minimum data generally performed the best, followed by the Penman and DB model. This study demonstrated that once three coefficients are locally calibrated using historical data the simple hysteresis model can offer

  6. An Effective Model for Efficiency Evaluation of Strategic Project Based on

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgil ROTARU

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available When analyzing a strategic development project implemented by universities both the system created, as a temporary organization having the participant organizations as distinctive actors and the universities have to be seen as learning organizations. As a consequence, the evaluation of such projects should always be more complex since there are intangible results and outcomes to be considered and an appropriate method for analyze is a must. Such a complex method, initially introduced by Caplan and Norton (1992 as balanced scorecard (BSC was later on developed based on frequently addressed critics. Nevertheless, more than 40% of the biggest 500 companies in the world, use BSC as an evaluation method for their strategic performance and almost all of strategic development projects analysis includes financial and non-financial perspectives as those of BSC. Although a lot of improvements have been done already, there are still very few steps done in the direction of connection BSC with the social networking analysis. This study reflects our actual research aiming to design a more effectiv system for strategic analysis, that to integrate social network analysis and a system dynamics BSC in a more complex analysis method for efficiency evaluation of the strategic project

  7. Control of trachoma in Australia: a model based evaluation of current interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Shattock

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Australia is the only high-income country in which endemic trachoma persists. In response, the Australian Government has recently invested heavily towards the nationwide control of the disease.A novel simulation model was developed to reflect the trachoma epidemic in Australian Aboriginal communities. The model, which incorporates demographic, migration, mixing, and biological heterogeneities, was used to evaluate recent intervention measures against counterfactual past scenarios, and also to assess the potential impact of a series of hypothesized future intervention measures relative to the current national strategy and intensity. The model simulations indicate that, under the current intervention strategy and intensity, the likelihood of controlling trachoma to less than 5% prevalence among 5-9 year-old children in hyperendemic communities by 2020 is 31% (19%-43%. By shifting intervention priorities such that large increases in the facial cleanliness of children are observed, this likelihood of controlling trachoma in hyperendemic communities is increased to 64% (53%-76%. The most effective intervention strategy incorporated large-scale antibiotic distribution programs whilst attaining ambitious yet feasible screening, treatment, facial cleanliness and housing construction targets. Accordingly, the estimated likelihood of controlling trachoma in these communities is increased to 86% (76%-95%.Maintaining the current intervention strategy and intensity is unlikely to be sufficient to control trachoma across Australia by 2020. However, by shifting the intervention strategy and increasing intensity, the likelihood of controlling trachoma nationwide can be significantly increased.

  8. Control of trachoma in Australia: a model based evaluation of current interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shattock, Andrew J; Gambhir, Manoj; Taylor, Hugh R; Cowling, Carleigh S; Kaldor, John M; Wilson, David P

    2015-04-01

    Australia is the only high-income country in which endemic trachoma persists. In response, the Australian Government has recently invested heavily towards the nationwide control of the disease. A novel simulation model was developed to reflect the trachoma epidemic in Australian Aboriginal communities. The model, which incorporates demographic, migration, mixing, and biological heterogeneities, was used to evaluate recent intervention measures against counterfactual past scenarios, and also to assess the potential impact of a series of hypothesized future intervention measures relative to the current national strategy and intensity. The model simulations indicate that, under the current intervention strategy and intensity, the likelihood of controlling trachoma to less than 5% prevalence among 5-9 year-old children in hyperendemic communities by 2020 is 31% (19%-43%). By shifting intervention priorities such that large increases in the facial cleanliness of children are observed, this likelihood of controlling trachoma in hyperendemic communities is increased to 64% (53%-76%). The most effective intervention strategy incorporated large-scale antibiotic distribution programs whilst attaining ambitious yet feasible screening, treatment, facial cleanliness and housing construction targets. Accordingly, the estimated likelihood of controlling trachoma in these communities is increased to 86% (76%-95%). Maintaining the current intervention strategy and intensity is unlikely to be sufficient to control trachoma across Australia by 2020. However, by shifting the intervention strategy and increasing intensity, the likelihood of controlling trachoma nationwide can be significantly increased.

  9. Absorbed dose evaluation based on a computational voxel model incorporating distinct cerebral structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandao, Samia de Freitas; Trindade, Bruno; Campos, Tarcisio P.R. [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)]. E-mail: samiabrandao@gmail.com; bmtrindade@yahoo.com; campos@nuclear.ufmg.br

    2007-07-01

    Brain tumors are quite difficult to treat due to the collateral radiation damages produced on the patients. Despite of the improvements in the therapeutics protocols for this kind of tumor, involving surgery and radiotherapy, the failure rate is still extremely high. This fact occurs because tumors can not often be totally removed by surgery since it may produce some type of deficit in the cerebral functions. Radiotherapy is applied after the surgery, and both are palliative treatments. During radiotherapy the brain does not absorb the radiation dose in homogeneous way, because the various density and chemical composition of tissues involved. With the intention of evaluating better the harmful effects caused by radiotherapy it was developed an elaborated cerebral voxel model to be used in computational simulation of the irradiation protocols of brain tumors. This paper presents some structures function of the central nervous system and a detailed cerebral voxel model, created in the SISCODES program, considering meninges, cortex, gray matter, white matter, corpus callosum, limbic system, ventricles, hypophysis, cerebellum, brain stem and spinal cord. The irradiation protocol simulation was running in the MCNP5 code. The model was irradiated with photons beam whose spectrum simulates a linear accelerator of 6 MV. The dosimetric results were exported to SISCODES, which generated the isodose curves for the protocol. The percentage isodose curves in the brain are present in this paper. (author)

  10. Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming-Tao; Sun, Gui-Quan; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Jin, Zhen

    2017-03-12

    Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis.

  11. The EMEFS model evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barchet, W.R.; Dennis, R.L.; Seilkop, S.K.; Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K.; Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.; Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A.; Fung, C.; Misra, P.K.; Hansen, D.A.; Chang, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs

  12. The EMEFS model evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Dennis, R.L. (Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)); Seilkop, S.K. (Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States)); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. (Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada)); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  13. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emond, Claude, E-mail: claude.emond@biosmc.com [BioSimulation Consulting Inc, Newark, DE (United States); Ruiz, Patricia; Mumtaz, Moiz [Division of Toxicology and Human Health Sciences, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-01-15

    Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable elimination half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. - Highlights: • The best available dioxin PBPK model for interpreting human biomonitoring data is presented. • The original PBPK model was recoded from acslX to the Berkeley Madonna (BM) platform. • Comparisons were made of the accuracy of the recoded model with the original model. • The model is a useful addition to the ATSDR's BM based PBPK toolkit that supports risk assessors. • The application of the model to real-life exposure data sets is illustrated.

  14. Evaluation of adamantane hydroxamates as botulinum neurotoxin inhibitors: synthesis, crystallography, modeling, kinetic and cellular based studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šilhár, Peter; Silvaggi, Nicholas R; Pellett, Sabine; Čapková, Kateřina; Johnson, Eric A; Allen, Karen N; Janda, Kim D

    2013-03-01

    Botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) are the most lethal biotoxins known to mankind and are responsible for the neuroparalytic disease botulism. Current treatments for botulinum poisoning are all protein based and thus have a limited window of treatment opportunity. Inhibition of the BoNT light chain protease (LC) has emerged as a therapeutic strategy for the treatment of botulism as it may provide an effective post exposure remedy. Using a combination of crystallographic and modeling studies a series of hydroxamates derived from 1-adamantylacetohydroxamic acid (3a) were prepared. From this group of compounds, an improved potency of about 17-fold was observed for two derivatives. Detailed mechanistic studies on these structures revealed a competitive inhibition model, with a K(i)=27 nM, which makes these compounds some of the most potent small molecule, non-peptidic BoNT/A LC inhibitors reported to date. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A mathematical modeling framework to evaluate the performance of single diode and double diode based SPV systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangram Bana

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the performance of a PV system, a reliable and accurate simulation design of PV systems before being installed is a necessity. The present study concerns the development of single and double diode model of solar PV system and ensures the best suited model under specific environmental condition for accurate performance prediction. The information provided in the manufacturers’ data sheet is not sufficient for developing a Simulink based single and double diode models of PV module. These parameters are crucial to predict accurate performance of a PV module. These parameters of the proposed solar PV models have been calculated using an efficient iterative technique. This paper compares the simulation results of both the models with manufacturer’s data sheet to investigate the accuracy and validity. A MATLAB/Simulink based comparative performance analysis of these models under inconsistent atmospheric conditions and the effect of variations in model parameters has been carried out. Despite the simplicity, these models are highly sensitive and respond to a slight variation in temperature and insolation. It is observed that double diode PV model is more accurate under low intensity insolation or shading condition. The performance evaluation of the models under present study will be helpful to understand the I-V curves, which will enable us in predicting the solar PV system power production under variable input conditions.

  16. Model-Based Development and Evaluation of Control for Complex Multi-Domain Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grujic, Ivan; Nilsson, Rene

    A Cyber-Physical System (CPS) incorporates sensing, actuating, computing and communicative capabilities, which are often combined to control the system. The development of CPSs poses a challenge, since the complexity of the physical system dynamics must be taken into account when designing...... Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has been constructed and used to develop an attitude controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The MPC controller has been compared to an existing open source Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) attitude controller. This thesis contributes to the discipline...

  17. Mathematical modeling based evaluation and simulation of boron removal in bioelectrochemical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ping, Qingyun [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Abu-Reesh, Ibrahim M. [Department of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, Qatar University, P.O. Box 2713, Doha (Qatar); He, Zhen, E-mail: zhenhe@vt.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Boron removal is an arising issue in desalination plants due to boron's toxicity. As an emerging treatment concept, bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can achieve potentially cost-effective boron removal by taking advantage of cathodic-produced alkali. Prior studies have demonstrated successful removal of boron in microbial desalination cells (MDCs) and microbial fuel cells (MFCs), both of which are representative BES. Herein, mathematical models were developed to further evaluate boron removal by different BES and understand the key operating factors. The models delivered very good prediction of the boron concentration in the MDC integrated with Donnan Dialysis (DD) system with the lowest relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.00%; the predication of the MFC performance generated the highest RMSE of 18.55%. The model results of salt concentration, solution pH, and current generation were well fitted with experimental data for RMSE values mostly below 10%. The long term simulation of the MDC-DD system suggests that the accumulation of salt in the catholyte/stripping solution could have a positive impact on the removal of boron due to osmosis-driven convection. The current generation in the MDC may have little influence on the boron removal, while in the MFC the current-driven electromigration can contribute up to 40% of boron removal. Osmosis-induced convection transport of boron could be the major driving force for boron removal to a low level < 2 mg L{sup −} {sup 1}. The ratio between the anolyte and the catholyte flow rates should be kept > 22.2 in order to avoid boron accumulation in the anolyte effluent. - Highlights: • Mathematical models are developed to understand boron removal in BES. • Boron removal can be driven by electromigration induced by current generation. • Diffusion induced by a salt concentration gradient also contributes to boron removal. • Osmosis and current driven convection transport play diverse roles in different BES.

  18. Evaluation of a novel scoring and grading model for VP-based exams in postgraduate nurse education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Elenita; Ziegert, Kristina; Hult, Håkan; Fors, Uno

    2015-12-01

    For Virtual Patient-based exams, several scoring and grading methods have been proposed, but none have yet been validated. The aim of this study was to evaluate a new scoring and grading model for VP-based exams in postgraduate paediatric nurse education. The same student group of 19 students performed a VP-based exam in three consecutive courses. When using the scoring and grading assessment model, which contains a deduction system for unnecessary or unwanted actions, a progression was found in the three courses: 53% of the students passed the first exam, 63% the second and 84% passed the final exam. The most common reason for deduction of points was due to students asking too many interview questions or ordering too many laboratory tests. The results showed that the new scoring model made it possible to judge the students' clinical reasoning process as well as their progress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Modeling Indicator Systems for Evaluating Environmental Sustainable Development Based on Factor Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Hao; CHEN Xiaoling; HE Ying; HE Xiaorong; CAI Xiaobin; XU Keyan

    2006-01-01

    Indicator systems of environmental sustainable development in the Poyang Lake Basin are established from 51 elementary indexes by factor analysis, which is composed of four steps such as the factor model, the parameter estimation, the factor rotation and the factor score. Under the condition that the cumulative proportion is greater than 85%, 5 explicit factors of environmental sustainable development as well as its factor score by region are carried out. The result indicates some impact factors to the basin environmental in descending sort order are volume of water, volume of waste gas discharge, volume of solid wastes, the degree to comprehensive utilization of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes, the emission volume of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes. It is helpful and important to provide decision support for constituting sustainable development strategies and evaluate the sustainable development status of each city.

  20. Going Global: A Model for Evaluating Empirically Supported Family-Based Interventions in New Contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundell, Knut; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Fraser, Mark W

    2014-06-01

    The spread of evidence-based practice throughout the world has resulted in the wide adoption of empirically supported interventions (ESIs) and a growing number of controlled trials of imported and culturally adapted ESIs. This article is informed by outcome research on family-based interventions including programs listed in the American Blueprints Model and Promising Programs. Evidence from these controlled trials is mixed and, because it is comprised of both successful and unsuccessful replications of ESIs, it provides clues for the translation of promising programs in the future. At least four explanations appear plausible for the mixed results in replication trials. One has to do with methodological differences across trials. A second deals with ambiguities in the cultural adaptation process. A third explanation is that ESIs in failed replications have not been adequately implemented. A fourth source of variation derives from unanticipated contextual influences that might affect the effects of ESIs when transported to other cultures and countries. This article describes a model that allows for the differential examination of adaptations of interventions in new cultural contexts. © The Author(s) 2012.

  1. Evaluation of long-term creep-fatigue life of stainless steel weldment based on a microstructure degradation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asayama, Tai; Hasebe, Shinichi

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes a newly developed analytical method of evaluation of creep-fatigue strength of stainless weld metals. Based on the observation that creep-fatigue crack initiates adjacent to the interface of sigma-phase/delta-ferrite and matrix, a mechanistic model which allows the evaluation of micro stress/strain concentration adjacent to the interface was developed. Fatigue and creep damage were evaluated using the model which describes the microstructure after exposed to high temperatures for a long time. Thus it was made possible to predict analytically the long-term creep-fatigue life of stainless steel metals whose microstructure is degraded as a result of high temperature service. (author)

  2. An evaluation of Substitute natural gas production from different coal gasification processes based on modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karellas, S.; Panopoulos, K.D.; Panousis, G.; Rigas, A.; Karl, J.; Kakaras, E.

    2012-01-01

    Coal and lignite will play a significant role in the future energy production. However, the technical options for the reduction of CO 2 emissions will define the extent of their share in the future energy mix. The production of synthetic or substitute natural gas (SNG) from solid fossil fuels seems to be a very attractive process: coal and lignite can be upgraded into a methane rich gas which can be transported and further used in high efficient power systems coupled with CO 2 sequestration technologies. The aim of this paper is to present a modeling analysis comparison between substitute natural gas production from coal by means of allothermal steam gasification and autothermal oxygen gasification. In order to produce SNG from syngas several unit operations are required such as syngas cooling, cleaning, potential compression and, of course, methanation reactors. Finally the gas which is produced has to be conditioned i.e. removal of unwanted species, such as CO 2 etc. The heat recovered from the overall process is utilized by a steam cycle, producing power. These processes were modeled with the computer software IPSEpro™. An energetic and exergetic analysis of the coal to SNG processes have been realized and compared. -- Highlights: ► The production of SNG from coal is examined. ► The components of the process were simulated for integrated autothermal or allothermal coal gasification to SNG. ► The energetic and exergetic evaluation of the two processes is presented.

  3. A novel quantified bitterness evaluation model for traditional Chinese herbs based on an animal ethology principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xue; Jiang, Hong; Han, Li; Xiong, Xi; He, Yanan; Fu, Chaomei; Xu, Runchun; Zhang, Dingkun; Lin, Junzhi; Yang, Ming

    2018-03-01

    Traditional Chinese herbs (TCH) are currently gaining attention in disease prevention and health care plans. However, their general bitter taste hinders their use. Despite the development of a variety of taste evaluation methods, it is still a major challenge to establish a quantitative detection technique that is objective, authentic and sensitive. Based on the two-bottle preference test (TBP), we proposed a novel quantitative strategy using a standardized animal test and a unified quantitative benchmark. To reduce the difference of results, the methodology of TBP was optimized. The relationship between the concentration of quinine and animal preference index (PI) was obtained. Then the PI of TCH was measured through TBP, and bitterness results were converted into a unified numerical system using the relationship of concentration and PI. To verify the authenticity and sensitivity of quantified results, human sensory testing and electronic tongue testing were applied. The quantified results showed a good discrimination ability. For example, the bitterness of Coptidis Rhizoma was equal to 0.0579 mg/mL quinine, and Nelumbinis Folium was equal to 0.0001 mg/mL. The validation results proved that the new assessment method for TCH was objective and reliable. In conclusion, this study provides an option for the quantification of bitterness and the evaluation of taste masking effects.

  4. ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), a new process based Agro-Land Surface Model: model description and evaluation over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Wang, X.; Magliulo, V.; Wattenbach, M.; Vitale, L.; Di Tommasi, P.; Moors, E. J.; Jans, W.; Elbers, J.; Ceschia, E.; Tallec, T.; Bernhofer, C.; Grünwald, T.; Moureaux, C.; Manise, T.; Ligne, A.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.; Larmanou, E.; Ripoche, D.

    2015-06-01

    The responses of crop functioning to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) could have large effects on food production, and impact carbon, water and energy fluxes, causing feedbacks to climate. To simulate the responses of temperate crops to changing climate and [CO2], accounting for the specific phenology of crops mediated by management practice, we present here the development of a process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module and a very simple parameterization of nitrogen fertilization, into the land surface model (LSM) ORCHIDEEv196, in order to simulate biophysical and biochemical interactions in croplands, as well as plant productivity and harvested yield. The model is applicable for a range of temperate crops, but it is tested here for maize and winter wheat, with the phenological parameterizations of two European varieties originating from the STICS agronomical model. We evaluate the ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) model against eddy covariance and biometric measurements at 7 winter wheat and maize sites in Europe. The specific ecosystem variables used in the evaluation are CO2 fluxes (NEE), latent heat and sensible heat fluxes. Additional measurements of leaf area index (LAI), aboveground biomass and yield are used as well. Evaluation results reveal that ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) reproduces the observed timing of crop development stages and the amplitude of pertaining LAI changes in contrast to ORCHIDEEv196 in which by default crops have the same phenology than grass. A near-halving of the root mean square error of LAI from 2.38 ± 0.77 to 1.08 ± 0.34 m2 m-2 is obtained between ORCHIDEEv196 and ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) across the 7 study sites. Improved crop phenology and carbon allocation lead to a general good match between modelled and observed aboveground biomass (with a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 11.0-54.2 %), crop yield, as well as of the daily

  5. Mathematical modeling based evaluation and simulation of boron removal in bioelectrochemical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Qingyun; Abu-Reesh, Ibrahim M; He, Zhen

    2016-11-01

    Boron removal is an arising issue in desalination plants due to boron's toxicity. As an emerging treatment concept, bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can achieve potentially cost-effective boron removal by taking advantage of cathodic-produced alkali. Prior studies have demonstrated successful removal of boron in microbial desalination cells (MDCs) and microbial fuel cells (MFCs), both of which are representative BES. Herein, mathematical models were developed to further evaluate boron removal by different BES and understand the key operating factors. The models delivered very good prediction of the boron concentration in the MDC integrated with Donnan Dialysis (DD) system with the lowest relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.00%; the predication of the MFC performance generated the highest RMSE of 18.55%. The model results of salt concentration, solution pH, and current generation were well fitted with experimental data for RMSE values mostly below 10%. The long term simulation of the MDC-DD system suggests that the accumulation of salt in the catholyte/stripping solution could have a positive impact on the removal of boron due to osmosis-driven convection. The current generation in the MDC may have little influence on the boron removal, while in the MFC the current-driven electromigration can contribute up to 40% of boron removal. Osmosis-induced convection transport of boron could be the major driving force for boron removal to a low level 22.2 in order to avoid boron accumulation in the anolyte effluent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Analysis on evaluation ability of nonlinear safety assessment model of coal mines based on artificial neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Shi-liang; LIU Hai-bo; LIU Ai-hua

    2004-01-01

    Based on the integration analysis of goods and shortcomings of various methods used in safety assessment of coal mines, combining nonlinear feature of mine safety sub-system, this paper establishes the neural network assessment model of mine safety, analyzes the ability of artificial neural network to evaluate mine safety state, and lays the theoretical foundation of artificial neural network using in the systematic optimization of mine safety assessment and getting reasonable accurate safety assessment result.

  7. Modeling of the Dissolution Kinetics of Arbutus Wild Berries-Based Tablets as Evaluated by Electric Conductivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbas-Aksil, T.; Benamara, S.

    2015-01-01

    Lyophilized powder (LP) from Algerian arbutus wild berries (Arbutus unedo L.) was obtained. This present paper reports about the dissolution (releasing) properties of LP-based tablets, evaluated through the electric conductivity (EC) of distilled water which is employed as surrounding medium, at three different temperatures (291, 298 and 309 K). In addition to this, secondary physicochemical characteristics such as elementary analysis, color and compressibility were evaluated. Regarding the modeling of ionic transfer, among the three tested models, namely Peleg, Singh et al. and Singh and Kulshestha, the latter seems to be the most appropriate (R2 = 0.99), particularly in the case of compacted tablets under 2000 Pa. The temperature dependence of the dissolution process was also studied applying Arrhenius equation (R2>0.8) which allowed to deduce the activation energy, ranging from 18.7 to 21.4 kJ.mol -1 according to the model and compression force employed. (author)

  8. A resilience-based model for performance evaluation of information systems: the case of a gas company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azadeh, A.; Salehi, V.; Salehi, R.

    2017-10-01

    Information systems (IS) are strongly influenced by changes in new technology and should react swiftly in response to external conditions. Resilience engineering is a new method that can enable these systems to absorb changes. In this study, a new framework is presented for performance evaluation of IS that includes DeLone and McLean's factors of success in addition to resilience. Hence, this study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of resilience on IS by the proposed model in Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company via the data obtained from questionnaires and Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (FDEA) approach. First, FDEA model with α-cut = 0.05 was identified as the most suitable model to this application by performing all Banker, Charnes and Cooper and Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes models of and FDEA and selecting the appropriate model based on maximum mean efficiency. Then, the factors were ranked based on the results of sensitivity analysis, which showed resilience had a significantly higher impact on the proposed model relative to other factors. The results of this study were then verified by conducting the related ANOVA test. This is the first study that examines the impact of resilience on IS by statistical and mathematical approaches.

  9. Evaluation of different time domain peak models using extreme learning machine-based peak detection for EEG signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Asrul; Ibrahim, Zuwairie; Mokhtar, Norrima; Shapiai, Mohd Ibrahim; Cumming, Paul; Mubin, Marizan

    2016-01-01

    Various peak models have been introduced to detect and analyze peaks in the time domain analysis of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In general, peak model in the time domain analysis consists of a set of signal parameters, such as amplitude, width, and slope. Models including those proposed by Dumpala, Acir, Liu, and Dingle are routinely used to detect peaks in EEG signals acquired in clinical studies of epilepsy or eye blink. The optimal peak model is the most reliable peak detection performance in a particular application. A fair measure of performance of different models requires a common and unbiased platform. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the four different peak models using the extreme learning machine (ELM)-based peak detection algorithm. We found that the Dingle model gave the best performance, with 72 % accuracy in the analysis of real EEG data. Statistical analysis conferred that the Dingle model afforded significantly better mean testing accuracy than did the Acir and Liu models, which were in the range 37-52 %. Meanwhile, the Dingle model has no significant difference compared to Dumpala model.

  10. A School-Based Evaluation Model for Accelerating the Education of Students At-Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetterman, David M.; Haertel, Edward H.

    This paper presents ideas for the development and utilization of a comprehensive evaluation plan for an accelerated school. It contains information about the purposes of a comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation design, and the kinds of data that might be gathered and used. The first section, "An Approach to Evaluation: Multiple Purposes and…

  11. External Economies Evaluation of Wind Power Engineering Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Matter-Element Extension Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-ze Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The external economies of wind power engineering project may affect the operational efficiency of wind power enterprises and sustainable development of wind power industry. In order to ensure that the wind power engineering project is constructed and developed in a scientific manner, a reasonable external economies evaluation needs to be performed. Considering the interaction relationship of the evaluation indices and the ambiguity and uncertainty inherent, a hybrid model of external economies evaluation designed to be applied to wind power engineering project was put forward based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and matter-element extension model in this paper. The AHP was used to determine the weights of indices, and the matter-element extension model was used to deduce final ranking. Taking a wind power engineering project in Inner Mongolia city as an example, the external economies evaluation is performed by employing this hybrid model. The result shows that the external economies of this wind power engineering project are belonged to the “strongest” level, and “the degree of increasing region GDP,” “the degree of reducing pollution gas emissions,” and “the degree of energy conservation” are the sensitive indices.

  12. Compliant actuation based on dielectric elastomers for a force-feedback device: modeling and experimental evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vertechy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Thanks to their large power densities, low costs and shock-insensitivity, Dielectric Elastomers (DE seem to be a promising technology for the implementation of light and compact force-feedback devices such as, for instance, haptic interfaces. Nonetheless, the development of these kinds of DE-based systems is not trivial owing to the relevant dissipative phenomena that affect the DE when subjected to rapidly changing deformations. In this context, the present paper addresses the development of a force feedback controller for an agonist-antagonist linear actuator composed of a couple of conically-shaped DE films and a compliant mechanism behaving as a negative-rate bias spring. The actuator is firstly modeled accounting for the visco-hyperelastic nature of the DE material. The model is then linearized and employed for the design of a force controller. The controller employs a position sensor, which determines the actuator configuration, and a force sensor, which measures the interaction force that the actuator exchanges with the environment. In addition, an optimum full-state observer is also implemented, which enables both accurate estimation of the time-dependent behavior of the elastomeric material and adequate suppression of the sensor measurement noise. Preliminary experimental results are provided to validate the proposed actuator-controller architecture.

  13. Evaluation of alternative age-based methods for estimating relative abundance from survey data in relation to assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Nielsen, Anders; Kristensen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    Indices of abundance from fishery-independent trawl surveys constitute an important source of information for many fish stock assessments. Indices are often calculated using area stratified sample means on age-disaggregated data, and finally treated in stock assessment models as independent...... observations. We evaluate a series of alternative methods for calculating indices of abundance from trawl survey data (delta-lognormal, delta-gamma, and Tweedie using Generalized Additive Models) as well as different error structures for these indices when used as input in an age-based stock assessment model...... the different indices produced. The stratified mean method is found much more imprecise than the alternatives based on GAMs, which are found to be similar. Having time-varying index variances is found to be of minor importance, whereas the independence assumption is not only violated but has significant impact...

  14. Evaluation of methane emissions from West Siberian wetlands based on inverse modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, H-S; Inoue, G [Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 457-4 Motoyama, Kamigamo, Kita-ku, Kyoto 603-8047 (Japan); Maksyutov, S; Machida, T [National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 (Japan); Glagolev, M V [Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Patra, P K [Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-cho, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001 (Japan); Sudo, K, E-mail: heonsook.kim@gmail.com [Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan)

    2011-07-15

    West Siberia contains the largest extent of wetlands in the world, including large peat deposits; the wetland area is equivalent to 27% of the total area of West Siberia. This study used inverse modeling to refine emissions estimates for West Siberia using atmospheric CH{sub 4} observations and two wetland CH{sub 4} emissions inventories: (1) the global wetland emissions dataset of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (the GISS inventory), which includes emission seasons and emission rates based on climatology of monthly surface air temperature and precipitation, and (2) the West Siberian wetland emissions data (the Bc7 inventory), based on in situ flux measurements and a detailed wetland classification. The two inversions using the GISS and Bc7 inventories estimated annual mean flux from West Siberian wetlands to be 2.9 {+-} 1.7 and 3.0 {+-} 1.4 Tg yr{sup -1}, respectively, which are lower than the 6.3 Tg yr{sup -1} predicted in the GISS inventory, but similar to those of the Bc7 inventory (3.2 Tg yr{sup -1}). The well-constrained monthly fluxes and a comparison between the predicted CH{sub 4} concentrations in the two inversions suggest that the Bc7 inventory predicts the seasonal cycle of West Siberian wetland CH{sub 4} emissions more reasonably, indicating that the GISS inventory predicts more emissions from wetlands in northern and middle taiga.

  15. Evaluation of physics-based numerical modelling for diverse design architecture of perovskite solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, A. K.; Catalan, Jorge; Camacho, Diana; Martinez, Miguel; Hodges, D.

    2017-08-01

    Solution processed organic-inorganic metal halide perovskite based solar cells are emerging as a new cost effective photovoltaic technology. In the context of increasing the power conversion efficiency (PCE) and sustainability of perovskite solar cells (PSC) devices, we comprehensively analyzed a physics-based numerical modelling for doped and un-doped PSC devices. Our analytics emphasized the role of different charge carrier layers from the view point of interfacial adhesion and its influence on charge extraction rate and charge recombination mechanism. Morphological and charge transport properties of perovskite thin film as a function of device architecture are also considered to investigate the photovoltaic properties of PSC. We observed that photocurrent is dominantly influenced by interfacial recombination process and photovoltage has functional relationship with defect density of perovskite absorption layer. A novel contour mapping method to understand the characteristics of current density-voltage (J-V) curves for each device as a function of perovskite layer thickness provide an important insight about the distribution spectrum of photovoltaic properties. Functional relationship of device efficiency and fill factor with absorption layer thickness are also discussed.

  16. A Java-based fMRI processing pipeline evaluation system for assessment of univariate general linear model and multivariate canonical variate analysis-based pipelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jing; Liang, Lichen; Anderson, Jon R; Gatewood, Lael; Rottenberg, David A; Strother, Stephen C

    2008-01-01

    As functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) becomes widely used, the demands for evaluation of fMRI processing pipelines and validation of fMRI analysis results is increasing rapidly. The current NPAIRS package, an IDL-based fMRI processing pipeline evaluation framework, lacks system interoperability and the ability to evaluate general linear model (GLM)-based pipelines using prediction metrics. Thus, it can not fully evaluate fMRI analytical software modules such as FSL.FEAT and NPAIRS.GLM. In order to overcome these limitations, a Java-based fMRI processing pipeline evaluation system was developed. It integrated YALE (a machine learning environment) into Fiswidgets (a fMRI software environment) to obtain system interoperability and applied an algorithm to measure GLM prediction accuracy. The results demonstrated that the system can evaluate fMRI processing pipelines with univariate GLM and multivariate canonical variates analysis (CVA)-based models on real fMRI data based on prediction accuracy (classification accuracy) and statistical parametric image (SPI) reproducibility. In addition, a preliminary study was performed where four fMRI processing pipelines with GLM and CVA modules such as FSL.FEAT and NPAIRS.CVA were evaluated with the system. The results indicated that (1) the system can compare different fMRI processing pipelines with heterogeneous models (NPAIRS.GLM, NPAIRS.CVA and FSL.FEAT) and rank their performance by automatic performance scoring, and (2) the rank of pipeline performance is highly dependent on the preprocessing operations. These results suggest that the system will be of value for the comparison, validation, standardization and optimization of functional neuroimaging software packages and fMRI processing pipelines.

  17. Nuclear models relevant to evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Chadwick, M.B.; Hale, G.M.; Young, P.G.

    1991-01-01

    The widespread use of nuclear models continues in the creation of data evaluations. The reasons include extension of data evaluations to higher energies, creation of data libraries for isotopic components of natural materials, and production of evaluations for radiative target species. In these cases, experimental data are often sparse or nonexistent. As this trend continues, the nuclear models employed in evaluation work move towards more microscopically-based theoretical methods, prompted in part by the availability of increasingly powerful computational resources. Advances in nuclear models applicable to evaluation will be reviewed. These include advances in optical model theory, microscopic and phenomenological state and level density theory, unified models that consistently describe both equilibrium and nonequilibrium reaction mechanism, and improved methodologies for calculation of prompt radiation from fission. 84 refs., 8 figs

  18. Evaluation of exercise tolerance patients in cardiac rehabilitation D model based on 6 Minute Walk Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bielawa Lukasz.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of the results of 6-minute walk test depending on gender, age, left ventricular ejection fraction, the primary disease and BMI. Patients underwent assessment of Cardiac Rehabilitation Department in Szymbark in 2012 (80 people. Duration of rehabilitation for all patients was 21 days. The test was performed at the beginning and end of the cycle. Following the 3-week cardiac rehabilitation in the model D in a group of 80 patients with a mean age of 72 years achieved a statistically significant improvement in exercise capacity, expressed in the increase in test 6MWT distance by an average of 52 meters. In the study, men received final results statistically superior to women. The largest increase in the distance gained to patients after aortic valve prosthesis. People who are obese with a body mass index BMI over 30 have an average trip distance underperform both at baseline, final, and in the resulting increase of the distance than those with a BMI under 30. Prevention of obesity, one of the modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease should be the goal of training during cardiac rehabilitation patient education.

  19. Evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil based on standard penetration test using multi-gene genetic programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muduli, Pradyut; Das, Sarat

    2014-06-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil based on standard penetration test (SPT) dataset using evolutionary artificial intelligence technique, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP). The liquefaction classification accuracy (94.19%) of the developed liquefaction index (LI) model is found to be better than that of available artificial neural network (ANN) model (88.37%) and at par with the available support vector machine (SVM) model (94.19%) on the basis of the testing data. Further, an empirical equation is presented using MGGP to approximate the unknown limit state function representing the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) of soil based on developed LI model. Using an independent database of 227 cases, the overall rates of successful prediction of occurrence of liquefaction and non-liquefaction are found to be 87, 86, and 84% by the developed MGGP based model, available ANN and the statistical models, respectively, on the basis of calculated factor of safety (F s) against the liquefaction occurrence.

  20. Ottawa Model of Implementation Leadership and Implementation Leadership Scale: mapping concepts for developing and evaluating theory-based leadership interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Wendy; Graham, Ian D; Ehrhart, Mark G; Davies, Barbara L; Aarons, Gregory A

    2017-01-01

    Leadership in health care is instrumental to creating a supportive organizational environment and positive staff attitudes for implementing evidence-based practices to improve patient care and outcomes. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the alignment of the Ottawa Model of Implementation Leadership (O-MILe), a theoretical model for developing implementation leadership, with the Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS), an empirically validated tool for measuring implementation leadership. A secondary objective is to describe the methodological process for aligning concepts of a theoretical model with an independently established measurement tool for evaluating theory-based interventions. Modified template analysis was conducted to deductively map items of the ILS onto concepts of the O-MILe. An iterative process was used in which the model and scale developers (n=5) appraised the relevance, conceptual clarity, and fit of each ILS items with the O-MILe concepts through individual feedback and group discussions until consensus was reached. All 12 items of the ILS correspond to at least one O-MILe concept, demonstrating compatibility of the ILS as a measurement tool for the O-MILe theoretical constructs. The O-MILe provides a theoretical basis for developing implementation leadership, and the ILS is a compatible tool for measuring leadership based on the O-MILe. Used together, the O-MILe and ILS provide an evidence- and theory-based approach for developing and measuring leadership for implementing evidence-based practices in health care. Template analysis offers a convenient approach for determining the compatibility of independently developed evaluation tools to test theoretical models.

  1. Ottawa Model of Implementation Leadership and Implementation Leadership Scale: mapping concepts for developing and evaluating theory-based leadership interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Wendy; Graham, Ian D; Ehrhart, Mark G; Davies, Barbara L; Aarons, Gregory A

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Leadership in health care is instrumental to creating a supportive organizational environment and positive staff attitudes for implementing evidence-based practices to improve patient care and outcomes. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the alignment of the Ottawa Model of Implementation Leadership (O-MILe), a theoretical model for developing implementation leadership, with the Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS), an empirically validated tool for measuring implementation leadership. A secondary objective is to describe the methodological process for aligning concepts of a theoretical model with an independently established measurement tool for evaluating theory-based interventions. Methods Modified template analysis was conducted to deductively map items of the ILS onto concepts of the O-MILe. An iterative process was used in which the model and scale developers (n=5) appraised the relevance, conceptual clarity, and fit of each ILS items with the O-MILe concepts through individual feedback and group discussions until consensus was reached. Results All 12 items of the ILS correspond to at least one O-MILe concept, demonstrating compatibility of the ILS as a measurement tool for the O-MILe theoretical constructs. Conclusion The O-MILe provides a theoretical basis for developing implementation leadership, and the ILS is a compatible tool for measuring leadership based on the O-MILe. Used together, the O-MILe and ILS provide an evidence- and theory-based approach for developing and measuring leadership for implementing evidence-based practices in health care. Template analysis offers a convenient approach for determining the compatibility of independently developed evaluation tools to test theoretical models. PMID:29355212

  2. Introducing Program Evaluation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca GÂRBOAN

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs and project evaluation models can be extremely useful in project planning and management. The aim is to set the right questions as soon as possible in order to see in time and deal with the unwanted program effects, as well as to encourage the positive elements of the project impact. In short, different evaluation models are used in order to minimize losses and maximize the benefits of the interventions upon small or large social groups. This article introduces some of the most recently used evaluation models.

  3. IFIS Model-Plus: A Web-Based GUI for Visualization, Comparison and Evaluation of Distributed Flood Forecasts and Hindcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajewski, W. F.; Della Libera Zanchetta, A.; Mantilla, R.; Demir, I.

    2017-12-01

    This work explores the use of hydroinformatics tools to provide an user friendly and accessible interface for executing and assessing the output of realtime flood forecasts using distributed hydrological models. The main result is the implementation of a web system that uses an Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS)-based environment for graphical displays of rainfall-runoff simulation results for both real-time and past storm events. It communicates with ASYNCH ODE solver to perform large-scale distributed hydrological modeling based on segmentation of the terrain into hillslope-link hydrologic units. The cyber-platform also allows hindcast of model performance by testing multiple model configurations and assumptions of vertical flows in the soils. The scope of the currently implemented system is the entire set of contributing watersheds for the territory of the state of Iowa. The interface provides resources for visualization of animated maps for different water-related modeled states of the environment, including flood-waves propagation with classification of flood magnitude, runoff generation, surface soil moisture and total water column in the soil. Additional tools for comparing different model configurations and performing model evaluation by comparing to observed variables at monitored sites are also available. The user friendly interface has been published to the web under the URL http://ifis.iowafloodcenter.org/ifis/sc/modelplus/.

  4. Association of Trans-theoretical Model (TTM based Exercise Behavior Change with Body Image Evaluation among Female Iranian Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Rostami

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundBody image is a determinant of individual attractiveness and physical activity among the young people. This study was aimed to assess the association of Trans-theoretical model based exercise behavior change with body image evaluation among the female Iranian students.Materials and MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted in Sanandaj city, Iran in 2016. Using multistage sampling method, a total of 816 high school female students were included in the study. They completed a three-section questionnaire, including demographic information, Trans-theoretical model constructs and body image evaluation. The obtained data were fed into SPSS version 21.0.  ResultsThe results showed more than 60% of participants were in the pre-contemplation and contemplation stages of exercise behavior. The means of perceived self-efficacy, barriers and benefits were found to have a statistically significant difference during the stages of exercise behavior change (P

  5. Validating and Determining the Weight of Items Used for Evaluating Clinical Governance Implementation Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaheh Hooshmand

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background The purpose of implementing a system such as Clinical Governance (CG is to integrate, establish and globalize distinct policies in order to improve quality through increasing professional knowledge and the accountability of healthcare professional toward providing clinical excellence. Since CG is related to change, and change requires money and time, CG implementation has to be focused on priority areas that are in more dire need of change. The purpose of the present study was to validate and determine the significance of items used for evaluating CG implementation. Methods The present study was descriptive-quantitative in method and design. Items used for evaluating CG implementation were first validated by the Delphi method and then compared with one another and ranked based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP model. Results The items that were validated for evaluating CG implementation in Iran include performance evaluation, training and development, personnel motivation, clinical audit, clinical effectiveness, risk management, resource allocation, policies and strategies, external audit, information system management, research and development, CG structure, implementation prerequisites, the management of patients’ non-medical needs, complaints and patients’ participation in the treatment process. The most important items based on their degree of significance were training and development, performance evaluation, and risk management. The least important items included the management of patients’ non-medical needs, patients’ participation in the treatment process and research and development. Conclusion The fundamental requirements of CG implementation included having an effective policy at national level, avoiding perfectionism, using the expertise and potentials of the entire country and the coordination of this model with other models of quality improvement such as accreditation and patient safety.

  6. Validating and determining the weight of items used for evaluating clinical governance implementation based on analytic hierarchy process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooshmand, Elaheh; Tourani, Sogand; Ravaghi, Hamid; Vafaee Najar, Ali; Meraji, Marziye; Ebrahimipour, Hossein

    2015-04-08

    The purpose of implementing a system such as Clinical Governance (CG) is to integrate, establish and globalize distinct policies in order to improve quality through increasing professional knowledge and the accountability of healthcare professional toward providing clinical excellence. Since CG is related to change, and change requires money and time, CG implementation has to be focused on priority areas that are in more dire need of change. The purpose of the present study was to validate and determine the significance of items used for evaluating CG implementation. The present study was descriptive-quantitative in method and design. Items used for evaluating CG implementation were first validated by the Delphi method and then compared with one another and ranked based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The items that were validated for evaluating CG implementation in Iran include performance evaluation, training and development, personnel motivation, clinical audit, clinical effectiveness, risk management, resource allocation, policies and strategies, external audit, information system management, research and development, CG structure, implementation prerequisites, the management of patients' non-medical needs, complaints and patients' participation in the treatment process. The most important items based on their degree of significance were training and development, performance evaluation, and risk management. The least important items included the management of patients' non-medical needs, patients' participation in the treatment process and research and development. The fundamental requirements of CG implementation included having an effective policy at national level, avoiding perfectionism, using the expertise and potentials of the entire country and the coordination of this model with other models of quality improvement such as accreditation and patient safety. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  7. A logic model framework for evaluation and planning in a primary care practice-based research network (PBRN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Holly; Parchman, Michael L.; Howard, Ray

    2012-01-01

    Evaluating effective growth and development of a Practice-Based Research Network (PBRN) can be challenging. The purpose of this article is to describe the development of a logic model and how the framework has been used for planning and evaluation in a primary care PBRN. An evaluation team was formed consisting of the PBRN directors, staff and its board members. After the mission and the target audience were determined, facilitated meetings and discussions were held with stakeholders to identify the assumptions, inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and outcome indicators. The long-term outcomes outlined in the final logic model are two-fold: 1.) Improved health outcomes of patients served by PBRN community clinicians; and 2.) Community clinicians are recognized leaders of quality research projects. The Logic Model proved useful in identifying stakeholder interests and dissemination activities as an area that required more attention in the PBRN. The logic model approach is a useful planning tool and project management resource that increases the probability that the PBRN mission will be successfully implemented. PMID:21900441

  8. Development and Application of a Life Cycle-Based Model to Evaluate Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Oil Sands Upgrading Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Diana M; Bergerson, Joule A; Alvarez-Majmutov, Anton; Chen, Jinwen; MacLean, Heather L

    2016-12-20

    A life cycle-based model, OSTUM (Oil Sands Technologies for Upgrading Model), which evaluates the energy intensity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of current oil sands upgrading technologies, is developed. Upgrading converts oil sands bitumen into high quality synthetic crude oil (SCO), a refinery feedstock. OSTUM's novel attributes include the following: the breadth of technologies and upgrading operations options that can be analyzed, energy intensity and GHG emissions being estimated at the process unit level, it not being dependent on a proprietary process simulator, and use of publicly available data. OSTUM is applied to a hypothetical, but realistic, upgrading operation based on delayed coking, the most common upgrading technology, resulting in emissions of 328 kg CO 2 e/m 3 SCO. The primary contributor to upgrading emissions (45%) is the use of natural gas for hydrogen production through steam methane reforming, followed by the use of natural gas as fuel in the rest of the process units' heaters (39%). OSTUM's results are in agreement with those of a process simulation model developed by CanmetENERGY, other literature, and confidential data of a commercial upgrading operation. For the application of the model, emissions are found to be most sensitive to the amount of natural gas utilized as feedstock by the steam methane reformer. OSTUM is capable of evaluating the impact of different technologies, feedstock qualities, operating conditions, and fuel mixes on upgrading emissions, and its life cycle perspective allows easy incorporation of results into well-to-wheel analyses.

  9. Review evaluation indicators of health information technology course of master's degree in medical sciences universities' based on CIPP Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarmohammadian, Mohammad Hossein; Mohebbi, Nooshin

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity of teaching and learning processes in universities emphasizes the necessity of assessment of the quality of education which improves the efficiency and effectiveness of the country. This study was conducted with an aim to review and develop the evaluation criteria of health information technology course at Master of Science level in Tehran, Shahid Beheshti, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Kashan medical universities in 2012 by using CIPP model. This was an applied and descriptive research with statistical population of faculty members (23), students (97), directorates (5), and library staff (5), with a total of 130 people, and sampling was done as a census. In order to collect data, four questionnaires were used based on Likert scale with scores ranging from 1 to 5. Questionnaires' validity was confirmed by consulting with health information technology and educational evaluation experts, and questionnaires' reliability of directorates, faculty, students, and library staff was tested using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient formula, which gave r = 0.74, r = 0.93, r = 0.98, and r = 0.80, respectively. SPSS software for data analysis and both descriptive and inferential statistics containing mean, frequency percentage, standard deviation, Pearson correlation, and Spearman correlation were used. With studies from various sources, commentary of experts, and based on the CIPP evaluation model, 139 indicators were determined and then evaluated, which were associated with this course based on the three factors of context, input, and process in the areas of human resources professional, academic services, students, directors, faculty, curriculum, budget, facilities, teaching-learning activities, and scientific research activities of students and faculty, and the activities of the library staff. This study showed that in total, the health information technology course at the Master of Science level is relatively good, but trying to improve and correct it in some areas and

  10. Evaluation of a task-based community oriented teaching model in family medicine for undergraduate medical students in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Taee Waleed G

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inclusion of family medicine in medical school curricula is essential for producing competent general practitioners. The aim of this study is to evaluate a task-based, community oriented teaching model of family medicine for undergraduate students in Iraqi medical schools. Methods An innovative training model in family medicine was developed based upon tasks regularly performed by family physicians providing health care services at the Primary Health Care Centre (PHCC in Mosul, Iraq. Participants were medical students enrolled in their final clinical year. Students were assigned to one of two groups. The implementation group (28 students was exposed to the experimental model and the control group (56 students received the standard teaching curriculum. The study took place at the Mosul College of Medicine and at the Al-Hadba PHCC in Mosul, Iraq, during the academic year 1999–2000. Pre- and post-exposure evaluations comparing the intervention group with the control group were conducted using a variety of assessment tools. Results The primary endpoints were improvement in knowledge of family medicine and development of essential performance skills. Results showed that the implementation group experienced a significant increase in knowledge and performance skills after exposure to the model and in comparison with the control group. Assessment of the model by participating students revealed a high degree of satisfaction with the planning, organization, and implementation of the intervention activities. Students also highly rated the relevancy of the intervention for future work. Conclusion A model on PHCC training in family medicine is essential for all Iraqi medical schools. The model is to be implemented by various relevant departments until Departments of Family medicine are established.

  11. Evaluation of Preservation Planning within OAIS, based on the Planets Functional Model

    OpenAIRE

    Sierman, Barbara; Wheatley, Paul

    2010-01-01

    This report gives an overview of the Planets Functional Model and relates it to the Planets deliverables. It also gives a set of recommendations for the OAIS model. The Report was part of the European FP6 Project Planets

  12. Nondestructive pavement evaluation using ILLI-PAVE based artificial neural network models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    The overall objective in this research project is to develop advanced pavement structural analysis models for more accurate solutions with fast computation schemes. Soft computing and modeling approaches, specifically the Artificial Neural Network (A...

  13. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  14. Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

    2014-02-01

    Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

  15. Value of Value-Added Models Based on Student Outcomes to Evaluate Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Ronald A.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, student outcomes have bubbled to the top of debates about how to evaluate teaching in community and liberal arts colleges, universities, and professional schools, but even more international attention has been riveted on how outcomes are being used to evaluate teachers and administrators K-12 (Harris, 2012; Rowen & Raudenbush, 2016;…

  16. Evaluating Microphysics in Cloud-Resolving Models using TRMM and Ground-based Precipitation Radar Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, S. K.; Zulauf, M. A.; Li, Y.; Zipser, E. J.

    2005-05-01

    Global satellite datasets such as those produced by ISCCP, ERBE, and CERES provide strong observational constraints on cloud radiative properties. Such observations have been widely used for model evaluation, tuning, and improvement. Cloud radiative properties depend primarily on small, non-precipitating cloud droplets and ice crystals, yet the dynamical, microphysical and radiative processes which produce these small particles often involve large, precipitating hydrometeors. There now exists a global dataset of tropical cloud system precipitation feature (PF) properties, collected by TRMM and produced by Steve Nesbitt, that provides additional observational constraints on cloud system properties. We are using the TRMM PF dataset to evaluate the precipitation microphysics of two simulations of deep, precipitating, convective cloud systems: one is a 29-day summertime, continental case (ARM Summer 1997 SCM IOP, at the Southern Great Plains site); the second is a tropical maritime case: the Kwajalein MCS of 11-12 August 1999 (part of a 52-day simulation). Both simulations employed the same bulk, three-ice category microphysical parameterization (Krueger et al. 1995). The ARM simulation was executed using the UCLA/Utah 2D CRM, while the KWAJEX simulation was produced using the 3D CSU CRM (SAM). The KWAJEX simulation described above is compared with both the actual radar data and the TRMM statistics. For the Kwajalein MCS of 11 to 12 August 1999, there are research radar data available for the lifetime of the system. This particular MCS was large in size and rained heavily, but it was weak to average in measures of convective intensity, against the 5-year TRMM sample of 108. For the Kwajalein MCS simulation, the 20 dBZ contour is at 15.7 km and the 40 dBZ contour at 14.5 km! Of all 108 MCSs observed by TRMM, the highest value for the 40 dBZ contour is 8 km. Clearly, the high reflectivity cores are off scale compared with observed cloud systems in this area. A similar

  17. Evaluation of pipeline defect's characteristic axial length via model-based parameter estimation in ultrasonic guided wave-based inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiaojuan; Tse, Peter W; Dordjevich, Alexandar

    2011-01-01

    The reflection signal from a defect in the process of guided wave-based pipeline inspection usually includes sufficient information to detect and define the defect. In previous research, it has been found that the reflection of guided waves from even a complex defect primarily results from the interference between reflection components generated at the front and the back edges of the defect. The respective contribution of different parameters of a defect to the overall reflection can be affected by the features of the two primary reflection components. The identification of these components embedded in the reflection signal is therefore useful in characterizing the concerned defect. In this research, we propose a method of model-based parameter estimation with the aid of the Hilbert–Huang transform technique for the purpose of decomposition of a reflection signal to enable characterization of the pipeline defect. Once two primary edge reflection components are decomposed and identified, the distance between the reflection positions, which closely relates to the axial length of the defect, could be easily and accurately determined. Considering the irregular profiles of complex pipeline defects at their two edges, which is often the case in real situations, the average of varied axial lengths of such a defect along the circumference of the pipeline is used in this paper as the characteristic value of actual axial length for comparison purpose. The experimental results of artificial defects and real corrosion in sample pipes were considered in this paper to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

  18. Evaluation of Karst Soil Erosion and Nutrient Loss Based on RUSLE Model in Guizhou Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Cheng; Li, Yangbing; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Guangjie

    2018-01-01

    Based on GIS technology and RUSLE model, the spatial variation characteristics of soil erosion were analyzed in karst areas, and the relationship between soil erosion and soil nutrient loss was discussed. The results showed that the soil differences in spatial variation between nutrient losses. The results illustrate the total soil erosion in is 10316.31 × 104t • a-1, accounting for 84.95% of the total land area in Guizhou Province. The spatial distribution of soil erosion showing the characteristics of the southeast to the northwest strip. The annual average soil erosion modulu is 691.94 t • km-2 • a-1, of which karst is 720.28t • km-2 • a-1 and non-karst is 689.53 t • km-2 • a-1. The total nutrient losses such as soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total potassium (TK) were 596.72 × 104t • a-1 due to soil erosion, and SOC, TN and TP and TK were 38.13, 1.61, 0.41 and 14.70t • km-2 • a-1, respectively. The average amount of loss and total loss are the largest in non-karst, and four kinds of nutrient is the smallest in karst gorge. The spatial variation of soil erosion in the study area is the process of increasing the erosion area with the increase of the erosion rate, and the difference of the spatial distribution of soil erosion determines the spatial distribution of soil nutrient loss.

  19. Initial draft of CSE-UCLA evaluation model based on weighted product in order to optimize digital library services in computer college in Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divayana, D. G. H.; Adiarta, A.; Abadi, I. B. G. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to create initial design of CSE-UCLA evaluation model modified with Weighted Product in evaluating digital library service at Computer College in Bali. The method used in this research was developmental research method and developed by Borg and Gall model design. The results obtained from the research that conducted earlier this month was a rough sketch of Weighted Product based CSE-UCLA evaluation model that the design had been able to provide a general overview of the stages of weighted product based CSE-UCLA evaluation model used in order to optimize the digital library services at the Computer Colleges in Bali.

  20. Ottawa Model of Implementation Leadership and Implementation Leadership Scale: mapping concepts for developing and evaluating theory-based leadership interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gifford W

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Wendy Gifford,1 Ian D Graham,2,3 Mark G Ehrhart,4 Barbara L Davies,5,6 Gregory A Aarons7 1School of Nursing, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ottawa, ON, Canada; 2Centre for Practice-Changing Research, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, 3School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Facility of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 4Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; 5Nursing Best Practice Research Center, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 6Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; 7Child and Adolescent Services Research Center, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Purpose: Leadership in health care is instrumental to creating a supportive organizational environment and positive staff attitudes for implementing evidence-based practices to improve patient care and outcomes. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the alignment of the Ottawa Model of Implementation Leadership (O-MILe, a theoretical model for developing implementation leadership, with the Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS, an empirically validated tool for measuring implementation leadership. A secondary objective is to describe the methodological process for aligning concepts of a theoretical model with an independently established measurement tool for evaluating theory-based interventions.Methods: Modified template analysis was conducted to deductively map items of the ILS onto concepts of the O-MILe. An iterative process was used in which the model and scale developers (n=5 appraised the relevance, conceptual clarity, and fit of each ILS items with the O-MILe concepts through individual feedback and group discussions until consensus was reached.Results: All 12 items of the ILS correspond to at least one O-MILe concept, demonstrating compatibility of the ILS as a measurement tool for the O-MILe theoretical constructs.Conclusion: The O

  1. Nondestructive pavement evaluation using finite element analysis based soft computing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Evaluating structural condition of existing, in-service pavements constitutes annually a major part of the : maintenance and rehabilitation activities undertaken by State Highway Agencies (SHAs). Accurate : estimation of pavement geometry and layer m...

  2. A Systematic Evaluation of Ultrasound-based Fetal Weight Estimation Models on Indian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujitkumar S. Hiwale

    2017-12-01

    Conclusion: We found that the existing fetal weight estimation models have high systematic and random errors on Indian population, with a general tendency of overestimation of fetal weight in the LBW category and underestimation in the HBW category. We also observed that these models have a limited ability to predict babies at a risk of either low or high birth weight. It is recommended that the clinicians should consider all these factors, while interpreting estimated weight given by the existing models.

  3. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2016-01-26

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed

  4. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew; Ershadi, Ali; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, Diego G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed

  5. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m-2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m-2

  6. A SIL quantification approach based on an operating situation model for safety evaluation in complex guided transportation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beugin, J.; Renaux, D.; Cauffriez, L.

    2007-01-01

    Safety analysis in guided transportation systems is essential to avoid rare but potentially catastrophic accidents. This article presents a quantitative probabilistic model that integrates Safety Integrity Levels (SIL) for evaluating the safety of such systems. The standardized SIL indicator allows the safety requirements of each safety subsystem, function and/or piece of equipment to be specified, making SILs pivotal parameters in safety evaluation. However, different interpretations of SIL exist, and faced with the complexity of guided transportation systems, the current SIL allocation methods are inadequate for the task of safety assessment. To remedy these problems, the model developed in this paper seeks to verify, during the design phase of guided transportation system, whether or not the safety specifications established by the transport authorities allow the overall safety target to be attained (i.e., if the SIL allocated to the different safety functions are sufficient to ensure the required level of safety). To meet this objective, the model is based both on the operating situation concept and on Monte Carlo simulation. The former allows safety systems to be formalized and their dynamics to be analyzed in order to show the evolution of the system in time and space, and the latter make it possible to perform probabilistic calculations based on the scenario structure obtained

  7. A cloud model based multi-attribute decision making approach for selection and evaluation of groundwater management schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hongwei; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong; Tian, Peipei; Liu, Jia

    2017-12-01

    Due to the uncertainty (i.e., fuzziness, stochasticity and imprecision) existed simultaneously during the process for groundwater remediation, the accuracy of ranking results obtained by the traditional methods has been limited. This paper proposes a cloud model based multi-attribute decision making framework (CM-MADM) with Monte Carlo for the contaminated-groundwater remediation strategies selection. The cloud model is used to handle imprecise numerical quantities, which can describe the fuzziness and stochasticity of the information fully and precisely. In the proposed approach, the contaminated concentrations are aggregated via the backward cloud generator and the weights of attributes are calculated by employing the weight cloud module. A case study on the remedial alternative selection for a contaminated site suffering from a 1,1,1-trichloroethylene leakage problem in Shanghai, China is conducted to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the developed approach. Totally, an attribute system which consists of ten attributes were used for evaluating each alternative through the developed method under uncertainty, including daily total pumping rate, total cost and cloud model based health risk. Results indicated that A14 was evaluated to be the most preferred alternative for the 5-year, A5 for the 10-year, A4 for the 15-year and A6 for the 20-year remediation.

  8. Evaluating the performance of unhealthy junk food consumption based on health belief model in elementary school girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azam Fathi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background and objective: Nowadays, due to changes in eating patterns, the worthless junk foods are replaced useful food among children. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of unhealthy junk food consumption based on health belief model in elementary school girls Methods: Cross-sectional study Descriptive-analytic type of multi-stage sampling (208 samples was carried out in 2016. The survey instrument was a questionnaire valid and reliable based on the Health Belief Model (70 items. Data was analyzed by SPSS software according to statistical tests of significance level of 0.05. Results: Results showed that students of sensitivity (49% and relatively high efficacy (53/8%, perceived benefits (73/1% and better social protection (68/3% had. The results showed that among all the health belief model structures with yield (junk food intake significantly correlated. Also significant differences in parental education and sensitivity, perceived severity, self-efficacy, social support and yield (p<0/05. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that students from relatively favorable sensitivity and self-efficacy, perceived benefits and social protection in the field of unhealthy snacks were good. Also a significant relationship between structural and non-use study results showed unhealthy snacks but because of the importance of unhealthy snacks and unhealthy snack consumption among school children and the complications of the health belief model in predicting nutritional behaviors suggest that this model used as a framework for school feeding programs. Paper Type: Research Article.

  9. A Novel Evaluation Model for Hybrid Power System Based on Vague Set and Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongxiao Niu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Because clean energy and traditional energy have different advantages and disadvantages, it is of great significance to evaluate comprehensive benefits for hybrid power systems. Based on thorough analysis of important characters on hybrid power systems, an index system including security, economic benefit, environmental benefit, and social benefit is established in this paper. Due to advantages of processing abundant uncertain and fuzzy information, vague set is used to determine the decision matrix. Convert vague decision matrix to real one by vague combination ruleand determine uncertain degrees of different indexes by grey incidence analysis, then the mass functions of different comment set in different indexes are obtained. Information can be fused in accordance with Dempster-Shafer (D-S combination rule and the evaluation result is got by vague set and D-S evidence theory. A simulation of hybrid power system including thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic power in China is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed design scheme. It can be clearly seen that the uncertainties in decision making can be dramatically decreased compared with existing methods in the literature. The actual implementation results illustrate that the proposed index system and evaluation model based on vague set and D-S evidence theory are effective and practical to evaluate comprehensive benefit of hybrid power system.

  10. Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie T Griffin

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools.We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS, mass screening and treatment (MSAT, and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs, vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year], LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (90% or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels.Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting, provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through

  11. Deuteron nuclear data for the design of accelerator-based neutron sources: Measurement, model analysis, evaluation, and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Yukinobu; Kin, Tadahiro; Araki, Shouhei; Nakayama, Shinsuke; Iwamoto, Osamu

    2017-09-01

    A comprehensive research program on deuteron nuclear data motivated by development of accelerator-based neutron sources is being executed. It is composed of measurements of neutron and gamma-ray yields and production cross sections, modelling of deuteron-induced reactions and code development, nuclear data evaluation and benchmark test, and its application to medical radioisotopes production. The goal of this program is to develop a state-of-the-art deuteron nuclear data library up to 200 MeV which will be useful for the design of future (d,xn) neutron sources. The current status and future plan are reviewed.

  12. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally-gridded forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2015-08-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the GEWEX LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from forty-five globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overally statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m-2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m-2; 0.62), with values in

  13. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally-gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2015-08-24

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the GEWEX LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from forty-five globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overally statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m

  14. Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Vancomycin Used in Open Heart Surgery: Model-Based Evaluation of Standard Dosing Regimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alqahtani, Saeed A; Alsultan, Abdullah S; Alqattan, Hussain M; Eldemerdash, Ahmed; Albacker, Turki B

    2018-04-23

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the population pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in patients undergoing open heart surgery. In this observational pharmacokinetic study, multiple blood samples were drawn over a 48-h period of intravenous vancomycin in patients who were undergoing open heart surgery. Blood samples were analysed using the Architect i4000SR Immunoassay Analyzer. Population pharmacokinetic models were developed using Monolix 4.4 software. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) simulations were performed to explore the ability of different dosage regimens to achieve the pharmacodynamic targets. One-hundred and sixty-eight blood samples were analysed from 28 patients. The pharmacokinetics of vancomycin was best described by a two-compartment model with between-subject variability in CL, V of the central compartment, and V of the peripheral compartment. CL and central compartment V of vancomycin were related to CL CR , body weight, and albumin concentration. Dosing simulations showed that standard dosing regimens of 1 and 1.5 g failed to achieve the PK-PD target of AUC 0--24 /MIC > 400 for an MIC of 1 mg/L, while high weight-based dosing regimens were able to achieve the PK-PD target. In summary, administration of standard doses of 1 and 1.5 g of vancomycin two times daily provided inadequate antibiotic prophylaxis in patients undergoing open heart surgery. The same findings were obtained when 15 mg/kg and 20 mg/kg doses of vancomycin were administered. Achieving the PK-PD target required higher doses (25 mg/kg and 30 mg/kg) of vancomycin. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

  15. High Speed Railway Environment Safety Evaluation Based on Measurement Attribute Recognition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qizhou Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to rationally evaluate the high speed railway operation safety level, the environmental safety evaluation index system of high speed railway should be well established by means of analyzing the impact mechanism of severe weather such as raining, thundering, lightning, earthquake, winding, and snowing. In addition to that, the attribute recognition will be identified to determine the similarity between samples and their corresponding attribute classes on the multidimensional space, which is on the basis of the Mahalanobis distance measurement function in terms of Mahalanobis distance with the characteristics of noncorrelation and nondimensionless influence. On top of the assumption, the high speed railway of China environment safety situation will be well elaborated by the suggested methods. The results from the detailed analysis show that the evaluation is basically matched up with the actual situation and could lay a scientific foundation for the high speed railway operation safety.

  16. A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.; Jones, Scott M.

    2017-01-01

    Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the

  17. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  18. Organizational Compliance : An agent-based model for designing and evaluating organizational interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, J.

    2015-01-01

    The motivation of this research comes from the need of devising and evaluating solutions to achieving organizational compliance, which is an important factor in ensuring the success of business operations and the safety of business environments. Using normative multi-agent systems as the basis of

  19. Implementation of a Web-Based Organ Donation Educational Intervention: Development and Use of a Refined Process Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harker, Laura; Bamps, Yvan; Flemming, Shauna St. Clair; Perryman, Jennie P; Thompson, Nancy J; Patzer, Rachel E; Williams, Nancy S DeSousa; Arriola, Kimberly R Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Background The lack of available organs is often considered to be the single greatest problem in transplantation today. Internet use is at an all-time high, creating an opportunity to increase public commitment to organ donation through the broad reach of Web-based behavioral interventions. Implementing Internet interventions, however, presents challenges including preventing fraudulent respondents and ensuring intervention uptake. Although Web-based organ donation interventions have increased in recent years, process evaluation models appropriate for Web-based interventions are lacking. Objective The aim of this study was to describe a refined process evaluation model adapted for Web-based settings and used to assess the implementation of a Web-based intervention aimed to increase organ donation among African Americans. Methods We used a randomized pretest-posttest control design to assess the effectiveness of the intervention website that addressed barriers to organ donation through corresponding videos. Eligible participants were African American adult residents of Georgia who were not registered on the state donor registry. Drawing from previously developed process evaluation constructs, we adapted reach (the extent to which individuals were found eligible, and participated in the study), recruitment (online recruitment mechanism), dose received (intervention uptake), and context (how the Web-based setting influenced study implementation) for Internet settings and used the adapted model to assess the implementation of our Web-based intervention. Results With regard to reach, 1415 individuals completed the eligibility screener; 948 (67.00%) were determined eligible, of whom 918 (96.8%) completed the study. After eliminating duplicate entries (n=17), those who did not initiate the posttest (n=21) and those with an invalid ZIP code (n=108), 772 valid entries remained. Per the Internet protocol (IP) address analysis, only 23 of the 772 valid entries (3.0%) were

  20. Implementation of a Web-Based Organ Donation Educational Intervention: Development and Use of a Refined Process Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redmond, Nakeva; Harker, Laura; Bamps, Yvan; Flemming, Shauna St Clair; Perryman, Jennie P; Thompson, Nancy J; Patzer, Rachel E; Williams, Nancy S DeSousa; Arriola, Kimberly R Jacob

    2017-11-30

    The lack of available organs is often considered to be the single greatest problem in transplantation today. Internet use is at an all-time high, creating an opportunity to increase public commitment to organ donation through the broad reach of Web-based behavioral interventions. Implementing Internet interventions, however, presents challenges including preventing fraudulent respondents and ensuring intervention uptake. Although Web-based organ donation interventions have increased in recent years, process evaluation models appropriate for Web-based interventions are lacking. The aim of this study was to describe a refined process evaluation model adapted for Web-based settings and used to assess the implementation of a Web-based intervention aimed to increase organ donation among African Americans. We used a randomized pretest-posttest control design to assess the effectiveness of the intervention website that addressed barriers to organ donation through corresponding videos. Eligible participants were African American adult residents of Georgia who were not registered on the state donor registry. Drawing from previously developed process evaluation constructs, we adapted reach (the extent to which individuals were found eligible, and participated in the study), recruitment (online recruitment mechanism), dose received (intervention uptake), and context (how the Web-based setting influenced study implementation) for Internet settings and used the adapted model to assess the implementation of our Web-based intervention. With regard to reach, 1415 individuals completed the eligibility screener; 948 (67.00%) were determined eligible, of whom 918 (96.8%) completed the study. After eliminating duplicate entries (n=17), those who did not initiate the posttest (n=21) and those with an invalid ZIP code (n=108), 772 valid entries remained. Per the Internet protocol (IP) address analysis, only 23 of the 772 valid entries (3.0%) were within Georgia, and only 17 of those

  1. Evaluation of 2 process-based models to estimate soil N{sub 2}O emissions in eastern Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, W.N.; Grant, B.B.; Desjardins, R.L. [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre; Rochette, P. [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Sainte-Foy, PQ (Canada); Drury, C.F. [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Harrow, ON (Canada); Li, C. [New Hampshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space

    2008-04-15

    This study assessed the ability of 2 process-based nitrogen (N) models to accurately estimate nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) emissions and auxiliary soil and hydraulic data from 2 field sites in eastern Canada. The DAYCENT model was used to simulate fluxes of carbon (C) and N between soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere on a daily basis. The model contained a submodel that considered the scheduling of management events; a parameter for considering drainage related to soil texture; a submodel that considered the effect of solar radiation on plant growth; a simulation module of seed germination as a function of soil temperature, growth and harvest; and submodel of water table depths. The DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model consisted of 4 submodels: (1) soil and climate; (2) crop vegetation; (3) decomposition; and (4) a denitrification model that operated on an hourly time step and was activated when soil moisture increased or when soil and oxygen availability decreased. Results of the comparative evaluation showed that the DNDC model accurately predicted total N{sub 2}O emissions from both test sites. However, the timing of emissions peaks was inaccurate, and emissions predictions from individual treatments were also incorrect. The DAYCENT model underpredicted emissions from most treatment regimes due to its prediction of lower mineralization rates. Simplistic soil water routines and a 1-D approach were used to overcome data limitations in both models, and results of the study suggested that the mechanisms were not able to characterize soil hydraulics in some soils. It was concluded that the mechanisms used to characterize the distribution and mineralization of N must be revised in both models after hydrology routines are optimized. 20 refs., 5 tabs., 3 figs.

  2. Training effectiveness evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    NAESCO's Training Effectiveness Evaluation Model (TEEM) integrates existing evaluation procedures with new procedures. The new procedures are designed to measure training impact on organizational productivity. TEEM seeks to enhance organizational productivity through proactive training focused on operation results. These results can be identified and measured by establishing and tracking performance indicators. Relating training to organizational productivity is not easy. TEEM is a team process. It offers strategies to assess more effectively organizational costs and benefits of training. TEEM is one organization's attempt to refine, manage and extend its training evaluation program

  3. Rock mechanics models evaluation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The primary recommendations of the analysis are that the DOT code be used for two-dimensional thermal analysis and that the STEALTH and HEATING 5/6 codes be used for three-dimensional and complicated two-dimensional thermal analysis. STEALTH and SPECTROM 32 are recommended for thermomechanical analyses. The other evaluated codes should be considered for use in certain applications. A separate review of salt creep models indicate that the commonly used exponential time law model is appropriate for use in repository design studies. 38 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  4. Evaluation of factor for one-point venous blood sampling method based on the causality model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsutomo, Norikazu; Onishi, Hideo; Kobara, Kouichi; Sasaki, Fumie; Watanabe, Haruo; Nagaki, Akio; Mimura, Hiroaki

    2009-01-01

    One-point venous blood sampling method (Mimura, et al.) can evaluate the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) value with a high degree of accuracy. However, the method is accompanied by complexity of technique because it requires a venous blood Octanol value, and its accuracy is affected by factors of input function. Therefore, we evaluated the factors that are used for input function to determine the accuracy input function and simplify the technique. The input function which uses the time-dependent brain count of 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and 25 minutes from administration, and the input function in which an objective variable is used as the artery octanol value to exclude the venous blood octanol value are created. Therefore, a correlation between these functions and rCBF value by the microsphere (MS) method is evaluated. Creation of a high-accuracy input function and simplification of technique are possible. The rCBF value obtained by the input function, the factor of which is a time-dependent brain count of 5 minutes from administration, and the objective variable is artery octanol value, had a high correlation with the MS method (y=0.899x+4.653, r=0.842). (author)

  5. Modified calibration protocol evaluated in a model-based testing of SBR flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corominas, Lluís; Sin, Gürkan; Puig, Sebastià

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to refine the BIOMATH calibration protocol for SBR systems, in particular to develop a pragmatic calibration protocol that takes advantage of SBR information-rich data, defines a simulation strategy to obtain proper initial conditions for model calibration and provide...

  6. Evaluation Of Model Based Systems Engineering Processes For Integration Into Rapid Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    for the required simulation allowed the MK6LE project to avoid the risk of having lower level model components not integrating together. The initial...that programs that applied MBSE at the lower levels, in particular the MK54 Torpedo program, expressed regrets of limiting the re-architecture to the

  7. Changing Lives? Critical Evaluation of a School-Based Athlete Role Model Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Kathleen; Duncombe, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    There would appear to be an enduring belief that successful sportsmen and women can act as powerful motivational role models for young people, especially disaffected, disadvantaged or disengaged youth. In the UK, for example, this belief has been expressed recently in the development of programmes, such as changingLIVES, the Respect Athlete Mentor…

  8. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  9. Evaluation of the Zucker diabetic fatty (ZDF rat as a model for human disease based on urinary peptidomic profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justyna Siwy

    Full Text Available Representative animal models for diabetes-associated vascular complications are extremely relevant in assessing potential therapeutic drugs. While several rodent models for type 2 diabetes (T2D are available, their relevance in recapitulating renal and cardiovascular features of diabetes in man is not entirely clear. Here we evaluate at the molecular level the similarity between Zucker diabetic fatty (ZDF rats, as a model of T2D-associated vascular complications, and human disease by urinary proteome analysis. Urine analysis of ZDF rats at early and late stages of disease compared to age- matched LEAN rats identified 180 peptides as potentially associated with diabetes complications. Overlaps with human chronic kidney disease (CKD and cardiovascular disease (CVD biomarkers were observed, corresponding to proteins marking kidney damage (eg albumin, alpha-1 antitrypsin or related to disease development (collagen. Concordance in regulation of these peptides in rats versus humans was more pronounced in the CVD compared to the CKD panels. In addition, disease-associated predicted protease activities in ZDF rats showed higher similarities to the predicted activities in human CVD. Based on urinary peptidomic analysis, the ZDF rat model displays similarity to human CVD but might not be the most appropriate model to display human CKD on a molecular level.

  10. A decision-tree-based model for evaluating the thermal comfort of horses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula de Assis Maia

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Thermal comfort is of great importance in preserving body temperature homeostasis during thermal stress conditions. Although the thermal comfort of horses has been widely studied, there is no report of its relationship with surface temperature (T S. This study aimed to assess the potential of data mining techniques as a tool to associate surface temperature with thermal comfort of horses. T S was obtained using infrared thermography image processing. Physiological and environmental variables were used to define the predicted class, which classified thermal comfort as "comfort" and "discomfort". The variables of armpit, croup, breast and groin T S of horses and the predicted classes were then subjected to a machine learning process. All variables in the dataset were considered relevant for the classification problem and the decision-tree model yielded an accuracy rate of 74 %. The feature selection methods used to reduce computational cost and simplify predictive learning decreased model accuracy to 70 %; however, the model became simpler with easily interpretable rules. For both these selection methods and for the classification using all attributes, armpit and breast T S had a higher power rating for predicting thermal comfort. Data mining techniques show promise in the discovery of new variables associated with the thermal comfort of horses.

  11. A simulation-based Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA model to evaluate wind plants locations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Sameie

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available As the world is getting overpopulated and over polluted the human being is seeking to utilize new sources of energy that are cleaner, cheaper, and more accessible. Wind is one of these clean energy sources that is accessible everywhere on the planet earth. This source of energy cannot be stored for later use; therefore, environmental circumstances and geographical location of wind plants are crucial matters. This study proposes a model to decide on the optimum location for a wind farm among the demand area. To tackle the uncertainty related to the geographical position of the nominated location such as wind speed; altitude; mean temperature; and humidity; a simulation method is applied on the problem. Other factors such as the time that a plant is out of service and demand fluctuations also have been considered in the simulation phase. Moreover, a probability distribution function is calculated for the turbine power. Then Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA performs the selection between all the nominated locations for wind farm. The proposed model takes into account several important elements of the problems. Elements such as land cost; average power received from the wind blowing; demand point population etc. are considered at the same time to select the optimum location of wind plants. Finally, the model is applied on a real case in order to demonstrate its reliability and applicability.

  12. An Implementation Model of Teaching Evaluation Questionnaire System Based on Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Yung Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The teaching evaluation questionnaire in the university has been an essential routine. The administrative staff of academic affairs shall obey the rules, fairness, and valid principles within the period of finishing teaching evaluation questionnaire. To ensure the accuracy and timeliness of the large number of questionnaires, it makes the administrative staff of academic affairs face the challenge and pressure if the students are too many. Program potency low or bad often came from the development staff being familiar with bad program development idea; the bad designs of system program in itself causes the factor proportion to occupy more higher, because the similar application program mode of writing is, respectively, different. However, the exploiter may find the method of the little consumption of system resources to complete the similar work task. We develop the software service of cloud platform and the educational administration personnel operates process in the software service of cloud platform. The cloud platform reduces the system wait and calculation time of questionnaire, improves and simplifies system operation flow, and promotes 10 times of program efficiencies as well as solving the load overweight problem of potency bottleneck.

  13. Developmental Education Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry-Miller, Mitzi; And Others

    A developmental education evaluation model designed to be used at a multi-unit urban community college is described. The purpose of the design was to determine the cost effectiveness/worth of programs in order to initiate self-improvement. A needs assessment was conducted by interviewing and taping the responses of students, faculty, staff, and…

  14. CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

  15. Distributed Space Mission Design for Earth Observation Using Model-Based Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Sreeja; LeMoigne-Stewart, Jacqueline; Cervantes, Ben; DeWeck, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth observation missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in multiple dimensions. DSM design is a complex problem with many design variables, multiple objectives determining performance and cost and emergent, often unexpected, behaviors. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables, minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool that can multiple DSM architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and size those architectures in terms of predefined science and cost metrics. The tool will help a user select Pareto optimal DSM designs based on design of experiments techniques. The tool will be applied to some earth observation examples to demonstrate its applicability in making some key decisions between different performance metrics and cost metrics early in the design lifecycle.

  16. Computer-Aided Evaluation of Screening Mammograms Based on Local Texture Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grim, Jiří; Somol, Petr; Haindl, Michal; Daneš, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 4 (2009), s. 765-773 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/07/1594; GA ČR GA102/08/0593; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Screening mammography * texture information * local statistical model * Gaussian mixture Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009

  17. Development of 4D mathematical observer models for the task-based evaluation of gated myocardial perfusion SPECT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taek-Soo; Frey, Eric C.; Tsui, Benjamin M. W.

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents two 4D mathematical observer models for the detection of motion defects in 4D gated medical images. Their performance was compared with results from human observers in detecting a regional motion abnormality in simulated 4D gated myocardial perfusion (MP) SPECT images. The first 4D mathematical observer model extends the conventional channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) based on a set of 2D spatial channels and the second is a proposed model that uses a set of 4D space-time channels. Simulated projection data were generated using the 4D NURBS-based cardiac-torso (NCAT) phantom with 16 gates/cardiac cycle. The activity distribution modelled uptake of 99mTc MIBI with normal perfusion and a regional wall motion defect. An analytical projector was used in the simulation and the filtered backprojection (FBP) algorithm was used in image reconstruction followed by spatial and temporal low-pass filtering with various cut-off frequencies. Then, we extracted 2D image slices from each time frame and reorganized them into a set of cine images. For the first model, we applied 2D spatial channels to the cine images and generated a set of feature vectors that were stacked for the images from different slices of the heart. The process was repeated for each of the 1,024 noise realizations, and CHO and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis methodologies were applied to the ensemble of the feature vectors to compute areas under the ROC curves (AUCs). For the second model, a set of 4D space-time channels was developed and applied to the sets of cine images to produce space-time feature vectors to which the CHO methodology was applied. The AUC values of the second model showed better agreement (Spearman’s rank correlation (SRC) coefficient = 0.8) to human observer results than those from the first model (SRC coefficient = 0.4). The agreement with human observers indicates the proposed 4D mathematical observer model provides a good predictor of the

  18. Development of 4D mathematical observer models for the task-based evaluation of gated myocardial perfusion SPECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Taek-Soo; Frey, Eric C; Tsui, Benjamin M W

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents two 4D mathematical observer models for the detection of motion defects in 4D gated medical images. Their performance was compared with results from human observers in detecting a regional motion abnormality in simulated 4D gated myocardial perfusion (MP) SPECT images. The first 4D mathematical observer model extends the conventional channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) based on a set of 2D spatial channels and the second is a proposed model that uses a set of 4D space-time channels. Simulated projection data were generated using the 4D NURBS-based cardiac-torso (NCAT) phantom with 16 gates/cardiac cycle. The activity distribution modelled uptake of 99m Tc MIBI with normal perfusion and a regional wall motion defect. An analytical projector was used in the simulation and the filtered backprojection (FBP) algorithm was used in image reconstruction followed by spatial and temporal low-pass filtering with various cut-off frequencies. Then, we extracted 2D image slices from each time frame and reorganized them into a set of cine images. For the first model, we applied 2D spatial channels to the cine images and generated a set of feature vectors that were stacked for the images from different slices of the heart. The process was repeated for each of the 1,024 noise realizations, and CHO and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis methodologies were applied to the ensemble of the feature vectors to compute areas under the ROC curves (AUCs). For the second model, a set of 4D space-time channels was developed and applied to the sets of cine images to produce space-time feature vectors to which the CHO methodology was applied. The AUC values of the second model showed better agreement (Spearman’s rank correlation (SRC) coefficient = 0.8) to human observer results than those from the first model (SRC coefficient = 0.4). The agreement with human observers indicates the proposed 4D mathematical observer model provides a good predictor of the

  19. Transcultural adaptation into Portuguese of an instrument for pain evaluation based on the biopsychosocial model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Rocha Peixoto dos Santos

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Pain is an individual experience influenced by multiple interacting factors. The “biopsychosocial” care model has gained popularity in response to growing research evidence indicating the influence of biological, psychological, and social factors on the pain experience. The implementation of this model is a challenge in the practice of the health professional. Objective: To perform the transcultural adaptation of the SCEBS method into Brazilian Portuguese. Methods: The instrument was translated and applied to 50 healthy subjects and 50 participants with non-specific chronic pain in the spine. The process of cross-cultural adaptation included the following steps: transcultural adaptation, content analysis of the scale, pre-test, revision, back-translation review, cross-cultural adaptation, revised text correction and final report. Results: The translated and adapted 51-item Portuguese version of the SCEBS method produced an instrument called SCEBS-BR. In the assessment by the target population, 50 adult users of the Brazilian Unified Health System answered the questionnaire and showed good understanding of the instrument on the verbal rating scale. Conclusion: The SCEBS-BR was proved to be easily understandable, showing good semantic validation regardless of schooling level or age, and can be considered adequate for clinical use.

  20. Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan

    2017-05-25

    The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

  1. Typelets - a rule-based evaluation model for dynamic, statically typed user interfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsman, Martin; Schack-Nielsen, Anders

    2014-01-01

    We present the concept of typelets, a specification technique for dynamic graphical user interfaces (GUIs) based on types. The technique is implemented in a dialect of ML, called MLFi (MLFi is a derivative of OCaml, extended by LexiFi with extensions targeted at the financial industry), which...... specification language allows layout programmers (e.g., end-users) to reorganize layouts in a type-safe way without being allowed to alter the rule machinery. The resulting framework is highly flexible and allows for creating highly maintainable modules. It is used with success in the context of SimCorp's high...

  2. Evaluating model performance of an ensemble-based chemical data assimilation system during INTEX-B field mission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Arellano Jr.

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a global chemical data assimilation system using a global atmosphere model, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3 with simplified chemistry and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART assimilation package. DART is a community software facility for assimilation studies using the ensemble Kalman filter approach. Here, we apply the assimilation system to constrain global tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO by assimilating meteorological observations of temperature and horizontal wind velocity and satellite CO retrievals from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT satellite instrument. We verify the system performance using independent CO observations taken on board the NSF/NCAR C-130 and NASA DC-8 aircrafts during the April 2006 part of the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B. Our evaluations show that MOPITT data assimilation provides significant improvements in terms of capturing the observed CO variability relative to no MOPITT assimilation (i.e. the correlation improves from 0.62 to 0.71, significant at 99% confidence. The assimilation provides evidence of median CO loading of about 150 ppbv at 700 hPa over the NE Pacific during April 2006. This is marginally higher than the modeled CO with no MOPITT assimilation (~140 ppbv. Our ensemble-based estimates of model uncertainty also show model overprediction over the source region (i.e. China and underprediction over the NE Pacific, suggesting model errors that cannot be readily explained by emissions alone. These results have important implications for improving regional chemical forecasts and for inverse modeling of CO sources and further demonstrate the utility of the assimilation system in comparing non-coincident measurements, e.g. comparing satellite retrievals of CO with in-situ aircraft measurements.

  3. Neonatal intensive care nursing curriculum challenges based on context, input, process, and product evaluation model: A qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansoureh Ashghali-Farahani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Weakness of curriculum development in nursing education results in lack of professional skills in graduates. This study was done on master's students in nursing to evaluate challenges of neonatal intensive care nursing curriculum based on context, input, process, and product (CIPP evaluation model. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted with qualitative approach, which was completed according to the CIPP evaluation model. The study was conducted from May 2014 to April 2015. The research community included neonatal intensive care nursing master's students, the graduates, faculty members, neonatologists, nurses working in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU, and mothers of infants who were hospitalized in such wards. Purposeful sampling was applied. Results: The data analysis showed that there were two main categories: “inappropriate infrastructure” and “unknown duties,” which influenced the context formation of NICU master's curriculum. The input was formed by five categories, including “biomedical approach,” “incomprehensive curriculum,” “lack of professional NICU nursing mentors,” “inappropriate admission process of NICU students,” and “lack of NICU skill labs.” Three categories were extracted in the process, including “more emphasize on theoretical education,” “the overlap of credits with each other and the inconsistency among the mentors,” and “ineffective assessment.” Finally, five categories were extracted in the product, including “preferring routine work instead of professional job,” “tendency to leave the job,” “clinical incompetency of graduates,” “the conflict between graduates and nursing staff expectations,” and “dissatisfaction of graduates.” Conclusions: Some changes are needed in NICU master's curriculum by considering the nursing experts' comments and evaluating the consequences of such program by them.

  4. Evaluation of an Educational Model Based on the Development of Sustainable Competencies in Basic Teacher Training in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Vega-Marcote

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The environmental deterioration of the planet, caused by unsustainable development and an unfair model, requires global change on a political, social and environmental level. To boost this change, it is necessary to redirect education and, specifically, environmental education, to educate citizens so that they are capable of making responsible decisions and behaving sustainably. The purpose of this study is to evaluate an educational teacher training model based on the development of sustainable competencies and on the solving of environmental problems. Its final aim is to search for a model that enables students to participate, individually and collectively, in the solution of socio-environmental problems in their surroundings, but without losing the global perspective, and that fosters sustainable life styles. To do so, a quasi-experimental quantitative research was performed with two pretest-posttest phases to compare the results of an active and participative methodology with another more expository one. The results show significant differences in the knowledge, attitudes and intention of the behavior of the aspiring teachers. Thus, this first analysis shows that the experiential educational model promotes and favors sustainable actions in higher education (the faculty of educational science, responsible for basic teacher training more efficiently and could be the basis for future proposals in this field.

  5. Performance measurement, modeling, and evaluation of integrated concurrency control and recovery algorithms in distributed data base systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenq, B.C.

    1986-01-01

    The performance evaluation of integrated concurrency-control and recovery mechanisms for distributed data base systems is studied using a distributed testbed system. In addition, a queueing network model was developed to analyze the two phase locking scheme in the distributed testbed system. The combination of testbed measurement and analytical modeling provides an effective tool for understanding the performance of integrated concurrency control and recovery algorithms in distributed database systems. The design and implementation of the distributed testbed system, CARAT, are presented. The concurrency control and recovery algorithms implemented in CARAT include: a two phase locking scheme with distributed deadlock detection, a distributed version of optimistic approach, before-image and after-image journaling mechanisms for transaction recovery, and a two-phase commit protocol. Many performance measurements were conducted using a variety of workloads. A queueing network model is developed to analyze the performance of the CARAT system using the two-phase locking scheme with before-image journaling. The combination of testbed measurements and analytical modeling provides significant improvements in understanding the performance impacts of the concurrency control and recovery algorithms in distributed database systems.

  6. A model based on feature objects aided strategy to evaluate the methane generation from food waste by anaerobic digestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Meijuan; Zhao, Mingxing; Huang, Zhenxing; Xi, Kezhong; Shi, Wansheng; Ruan, Wenquan

    2018-02-01

    A model based on feature objects (FOs) aided strategy was used to evaluate the methane generation from food waste by anaerobic digestion. The kinetics of feature objects was tested by the modified Gompertz model and the first-order kinetic model, and the first-order kinetic hydrolysis constants were used to estimate the reaction rate of homemade and actual food waste. The results showed that the methane yields of four feature objects were significantly different. The anaerobic digestion of homemade food waste and actual food waste had various methane yields and kinetic constants due to the different contents of FOs in food waste. Combining the kinetic equations with the multiple linear regression equation could well express the methane yield of food waste, as the R 2 of food waste was more than 0.9. The predictive methane yields of the two actual food waste were 528.22 mL g -1  TS and 545.29 mL g -1  TS with the model, while the experimental values were 527.47 mL g -1  TS and 522.1 mL g -1  TS, respectively. The relative error between the experimental cumulative methane yields and the predicted cumulative methane yields were both less than 5%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Chapman, Ruth; Hughes, Owain; Choi, Yoon Hong

    2011-09-27

    To compare the effect and cost effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, taking into account differences in licensure indications, protection against non-vaccine type disease, protection against disease related to HPV types 6 and 11, and reported long term immunogenicity. A model of HPV transmission and disease previously used to inform UK vaccination policy, updated with recent evidence and expanded to include scenarios where the two vaccines differ in duration of protection, cross protection, and end points prevented. United Kingdom. Population Males and females aged 12-75 years. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios for both vaccines and additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective as the bivalent vaccine. The bivalent vaccine needs to be cheaper than the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective, mainly because of its lack of protection against anogenital warts. The price difference per dose ranges from a median of £19 (interquartile range £12-£27) to £35 (£27-£44) across scenarios about vaccine duration, cross protection, and end points prevented (assuming one quality adjusted life year (QALY) is valued at £30,000 and both vaccines can prevent all types of HPV related cancers). The quadrivalent vaccine may have an advantage over the bivalent vaccine in reducing healthcare costs and QALYs lost. The bivalent vaccine may have an advantage in preventing death due to cancer. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the differential benefit of the two vaccines.

  8. Design and evaluation of a Monte Carlo based model of an orthovoltage treatment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penchev, Petar; Maeder, Ulf; Fiebich, Martin; Zink, Klemens; University Hospital Marburg

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a flexible framework of an orthovoltage treatment system capable of calculating and visualizing dose distributions in different phantoms and CT datasets. The framework provides a complete set of various filters, applicators and X-ray energies and therefore can be adapted to varying studies or be used for educational purposes. A dedicated user friendly graphical interface was developed allowing for easy setup of the simulation parameters and visualization of the results. For the Monte Carlo simulations the EGSnrc Monte Carlo code package was used. Building the geometry was accomplished with the help of the EGSnrc C++ class library. The deposited dose was calculated according to the KERMA approximation using the track-length estimator. The validation against measurements showed a good agreement within 4-5% deviation, down to depths of 20% of the depth dose maximum. Furthermore, to show its capabilities, the validated model was used to calculate the dose distribution on two CT datasets. Typical Monte Carlo calculation time for these simulations was about 10 minutes achieving an average statistical uncertainty of 2% on a standard PC. However, this calculation time depends strongly on the used CT dataset, tube potential, filter material/thickness and applicator size.

  9. Evaluation of bond strength of silorane and methacrylate based restorative systems to dentin using different cavity models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephano Zerlottini Isaac

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the microtensile bond strength (µTBS to dentin of two different restorative systems: silorane-based (P90, and methacrylate-based (P60, using two cavity models. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Occlusal enamel of 40 human third molars was removed to expose flat dentin surface. Class I cavities with 4 mm mesial-distal width, 3 mm buccal-lingual width and 3 mm depth (C-factor=4.5 were prepared in 20 teeth, which were divided into two groups (n=10 restored with P60 and P90, bulk-filled after dentin treatment according to manufacturer's instructions. Flat buccal dentin surfaces were prepared in the 20 remaining teeth (C-factor=0.2 and restored with resin blocks measuring 4x3x3 mm using the two restorative systems (n=10. The teeth were sectioned into samples with area between 0.85 and 1.25 mm2 that were submitted to µTBS testing, using a universal testing machine (EMIC at speed of 0.5 mm/min. Fractured specimens were analyzed under stereomicroscope and categorized according to fracture pattern. Data were analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey Kramer tests. RESULTS: For flat surfaces, P60 obtained higher bond strength values compared with P90. However, for Class I cavities, P60 showed significant reduction in bond strength (p0.05, or between Class I Cavity and Flat Surface group, considering P90 restorative system (p>0.05. Regarding fracture pattern, there was no statistical difference among groups (p=0.0713 and 56.3% of the fractures were adhesive. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that methacrylate-based composite µTBS was influenced by cavity models, and the use of silorane-based composite led to similar bond strength values compared to the methacrylate-based composite in cavities with high C-factor.

  10. GIS-based flood risk model evaluated by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukcharoen, Tharapong; Weng, Jingnong; Teetat, Charoenkalunyuta

    2016-10-01

    Over the last 2-3 decades, the economy of many countries around the world has been developed rapidly but it was unbalanced development because of expecting on economic growth only. Meanwhile it lacked of effective planning in the use of natural resources. This can significantly induce climate change which is major cause of natural disaster. Hereby, Thailand has also suffered from natural disaster for ages. Especially, the flood which is most hazardous disaster in Thailand can annually result in the great loss of life and property, environment and economy. Since the flood management of country is inadequate efficiency. It is unable to support the flood analysis comprehensively. This paper applied Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Making to create flood risk model at regional scale. Angthong province in Thailand was used as the study area. In practical process, Fuzzy logic technique has been used to improve specialist's assessment by implementing with Fuzzy membership because human decision is flawed under uncertainty then AHP technique was processed orderly. The hierarchy structure in this paper was categorized the spatial flood factors into two levels as following: 6 criteria (Meteorology, Geology, Topography, Hydrology, Human and Flood history) and 8 factors (Average Rainfall, Distance from Stream, Soil drainage capability, Slope, Elevation, Land use, Distance from road and Flooded area in the past). The validity of the pair-wise comparison in AHP was shown as C.R. value which indicated that the specialist judgment was reasonably consistent. FAHP computation result has shown that the first priority of criteria was Meteorology. In addition, the Rainfall was the most influencing factor for flooding. Finally, the output was displayed in thematic map of Angthong province with flood risk level processed by GIS tools. The map was classified into: High Risk, Moderate Risk and Low Risk (13.20%, 75.58%, and 11.22% of total area).

  11. Model-based evaluation of the use of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons molecular diagnostic ratios as a source identification tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsoyiannis, Athanasios; Breivik, Knut

    2014-01-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) molecular diagnostic ratios (MDRs) are unitless concentration ratios of pair-PAHs with the same molecular weight (MW); MDRs have long been used as a tool for PAHs source identification purposes. In the present paper, the efficiency of the MDR methodology is evaluated through the use of a multimedia fate model, the calculation of characteristic travel distances (CTD) and the estimation of air concentrations for individual PAHs as a function of distance from an initial point source. The results show that PAHs with the same MW are sometimes characterized by substantially different CTDs and therefore their air concentrations and hence MDRs are predicted to change as the distance from the original source increases. From the assessed pair-PAHs, the biggest CTD difference is seen for Fluoranthene (107 km) vs. Pyrene (26 km). This study provides a strong indication that MDRs are of limited use as a source identification tool. -- Highlights: • Model-based evaluation of the PAHs molecular diagnostic ratios efficiency. • Individual PAHs are characterized by different characteristic travel distances. • MDRs are proven to be a limited tool for source identification. • Use of MDRs for other environmental media is likely unfeasible. -- PAHs molecular diagnostic ratios which change greatly as a function of distance from the emitting source are improper for source identification purposes

  12. A formative evaluation of a coach-based technical assistance model for youth- and family-focused programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Jonathan R; McCarthy, Kimberly J; Perkins, Daniel F; Borden, Lynne M

    2018-04-01

    The Children, Youth, and Families At-Risk (CYFAR) initiative provides funding and technical support for local community-based programs designed to promote positive outcomes among vulnerable populations. In 2013, CYFAR implemented significant changes in the way it provides technical assistance (TA) to grantees. These changes included introducing a new TA model in which trained coaches provide proactive support that is tailored to individual CYFAR projects. The purpose of this paper is to describe the evolution of this TA model and present preliminary findings from a formative evaluation. CYFAR Principal Investigators (PIs) were invited to respond to online surveys in 2015 and 2016. The surveys were designed to assess PI attitudes towards the nature and quality of support that they receive from their coaches. CYFAR PIs reported that their coaches have incorporated a range of coaching skills and techniques into their work. PIs have generally positive attitudes towards their coaches, and these attitudes have become more positive over time. Results suggest that CYFAR PIs have been generally supportive of the new TA system. Factors that may have facilitated support include a strong emphasis on team-building and the provision of specific resources that support program design, implementation, and evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Consumers’ evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in China: An analysis based on a four paradigm model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Wenbo; Long, Ruyin; Chen, Hong

    2016-01-01

    The Chinese government has issued numerous policies to promote the development and adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution. In this study we divided these policies into seven categories: macroscopic, demonstration, subsidization, preferential tax, technical support, industry management, and infrastructure. Since consumers’ opinions affect the policy choices of government, based on questionnaire data we use a four paradigm model to analyze the consumers’ evaluation of each policy in terms of perceptions of importance and satisfaction. The results show that macroscopic policies are perceived to be of high importance and satisfaction, whereas for industry management policies they are perceived to be of low importance and satisfaction. The importance perceptions of preferential tax and demonstration policies are low, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are high. Perceptions of the importance of subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies are high, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are low. We find that the subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need urgent improvement. Finally, we put forward several suggestions to improve the current policies and increase the consumers’ intention to adopt NEVs. - Highlights: • This study divided Chinese NEV-related policies into seven types. • This study analyzed consumers’ evaluation of NEV-related policies. • Consumers’ evaluations about NEV-related policies were diverse. • Subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need improvement.

  14. Development of an activity-based costing model to evaluate physician office practice profitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugel, Pravin U; Tong, Kuo Bianchini

    2011-01-01

    Newer treatment regimens for age-related macular degeneration have significantly affected traditional and non-traditional retinal services across all types of practice settings around the country as they seek to find a balance among delivering best patient care, keeping operating costs under control, and maintaining profitability. A systematic retrospective review of a multi-city, multi-physician retinal practice's accounting system to obtain data on revenues, expenses, and profit. Data reviewed were from practice management systems to obtain claims level data on clinical procedures across 7 primary activity centers: non-laser surgery, laser surgery, office visits, optical coherence tomography (OCT), non-OCT diagnostics, drugs and drug injections, and research. All treated patients from a retina practice from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2007. Retrospective claims data review from a multi-physician retina practice detailing Current Procedural Terminology and Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System procedures performed and billed, submitted charges, allowed charges, and net collections. Analyses were performed by an outside firm and verified by a risk advisory firm. Identifying practice efficiencies/inefficiencies as they relate to patient care. An elaborate analysis using activity-based costing (ABC) showed that increased office visits and OCT and non-OCT diagnostics had a significant negative impact on the practice's profit margins, whereas surgical procedures contributed to the majority of the practice's profit margins because of the lower operating costs associated with surgery. The practice was able to accommodate the demand in patient volume, medical retina services, and medical imaging with the advent of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy and realized a seismic shift in operating costs. The practice attempted to deliver state-of-the-art patient care in a cost-effective manner, yet underwent a significant decline in its financial health

  15. An evaluation of a model for the systematic documentation of hospital based health promotion activities: results from a multicentre study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morris Denise

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The first step of handling health promotion (HP in Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs is a systematic documentation and registration of the activities in the medical records. So far the possibility and tradition for systematic registration of clinical HP activities in the medical records and in patient administrative systems have been sparse. Therefore, the activities are mostly invisible in the registers of hospital services as well as in budgets and balances. A simple model has been described to structure the registration of the HP procedures performed by the clinical staff. The model consists of two parts; first part includes motivational counselling (7 codes and the second part comprehends intervention, rehabilitation and after treatment (8 codes. The objective was to evaluate in an international study the usefulness, applicability and sufficiency of a simple model for the systematic registration of clinical HP procedures in day life. Methods The multi centre project was carried out in 19 departments/hospitals in 6 countries in a clinical setup. The study consisted of three parts in accordance with the objectives. A: Individual test. 20 consecutive medical records from each participating department/hospital were coded by the (coding specialists at local department/hospital, exclusively (n = 5,529 of 5,700 possible tests in total. B: Common test. 14 standardized medical records were coded by all the specialists from 17 departments/hospitals, who returned 3,046 of 3,570 tests. C: Specialist evaluation. The specialists from the 19 departments/hospitals evaluated if the codes were useful, applicable and sufficient for the registration in their own department/hospital (239 of 285. Results A: In 97 to100% of the local patient pathways the specialists were able to evaluate if there was documentation of HP activities in the medical record to be coded. B: Inter rater reliability on the use of the codes were 93% (57 to 100% and 71% (31

  16. A Three-Dimensional Radiation Transfer Model to Evaluate Performance of Compound Parabolic Concentrator-Based Photovoltaic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the past, two-dimensional radiation transfer models (2-D models were widely used to investigate the optical performance of linear compound parabolic concentrators (CPCs, in which the radiation transfer on the cross-section of CPC troughs is considered. However, the photovoltaic efficiency of solar cells depends on the real incidence angle instead of the projection incidence angle, thus 2-D models can’t reasonably evaluate the photovoltaic performance of CPC-based photovoltaic systems (CPVs. In this work, three-dimensional radiation transfer (3-D model within CPC-θa/θe, the CPC with a maximum exit angle θe for radiation within its acceptance angle (θa, is investigated by means of vector algebra, solar geometry and imaging principle of plane mirror, and effects of geometry of CPV-θa/θe on its annual electricity generation are studied. Analysis shows that, as compared to similar photovoltaic (PV panels, the use of CPCs makes the incident angle of solar rays on solar cells increase thus lowers the photovoltaic conversion efficiency of solar cells. Calculations show that, 2-D models can reasonably predict the optical performance of CPVs, but such models always overestimate the photovoltaic performance of CPVs, and even can’t predict the variation trend of annual power output of CPV-θa/θe with θe. Results show that, for full CPV-θa/θe with a given θa, the annual power output increases with θe first and then comes to a halt as θe > 83°, whereas for truncated CPV-θa/θe with a given geometric concentration (Ct, the annual power output decreases with θe.

  17. Evaluation of base, optimum and ceiling temperature for (Kochia scoparia L. Schard with application of Five-Parameters-Beta Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sabouri Rad

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Kochia (Kochia scoparia L. Schard is an annual, halophyte and drought resistant plant, that it can be irrigated with saline water and a valuable source for forage under drought and saline ecosystems. In order to evaluate germination characteristics of kochia, an experiment was conducted at Physiology laboratory of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran, during 2009. This experiment was conducted in a completely randomized design with four replications. Germination was evaluated at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40°C under dark germinator with 50-60 percentage relative humidity. The results showed that the highest germination percentage was obtained at 20-30°C and the lowest obtained at 40°C. The longest and the shortest period to 20 and 50 germination percentage were recorded to 5-10°C and 20-30°C, respectively. The longest and the shortest period to 80 percentage germination were belonging to 15 and 30°C, respectively. Based on Five Parameters Beta model, base, optimum and ceiling temperatures for kochia estimated 3.4, 25 and 43.3°C, respectively. However, seed of this plant is able to germinate in wide temperature range.

  18. Model-Based Evaluation of Higher Doses of Rifampin Using a Semimechanistic Model Incorporating Autoinduction and Saturation of Hepatic Extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirehwa, Maxwell T; Rustomjee, Roxana; Mthiyane, Thuli; Onyebujoh, Philip; Smith, Peter; McIlleron, Helen; Denti, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    Rifampin is a key sterilizing drug in the treatment of tuberculosis (TB). It induces its own metabolism, but neither the onset nor the extent of autoinduction has been adequately described. Currently, the World Health Organization recommends a rifampin dose of 8 to 12 mg/kg of body weight, which is believed to be suboptimal, and higher doses may potentially improve treatment outcomes. However, a nonlinear increase in exposure may be observed because of saturation of hepatic extraction and hence this should be taken into consideration when a dose increase is implemented. Intensive pharmacokinetic (PK) data from 61 HIV-TB-coinfected patients in South Africa were collected at four visits, on days 1, 8, 15, and 29, after initiation of treatment. Data were analyzed by population nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Rifampin PKs were best described by using a transit compartment absorption and a well-stirred liver model with saturation of hepatic extraction, including a first-pass effect. Autoinduction was characterized by using an exponential-maturation model: hepatic clearance almost doubled from the baseline to steady state, with a half-life of around 4.5 days. The model predicts that increases in the dose of rifampin result in more-than-linear drug exposure increases as measured by the 24-h area under the concentration-time curve. Simulations with doses of up to 35 mg/kg produced results closely in line with those of clinical trials. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  19. Success rate evaluation of clinical governance implementation in teaching hospitals in Kerman (Iran) based on nine steps of Karsh's model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vali, Leila; Mastaneh, Zahra; Mouseli, Ali; Kardanmoghadam, Vida; Kamali, Sodabeh

    2017-07-01

    One of the ways to improve the quality of services in the health system is through clinical governance. This method aims to create a framework for clinical services providers to be accountable in return for continuing improvement of quality and maintaining standards of services. To evaluate the success rate of clinical governance implementation in Kerman teaching hospitals based on 9 steps of Karsh's Model. This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 on 94 people including chief executive officers (CEOs), nursing managers, clinical governance managers and experts, head nurses and nurses. The required data were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire containing 38 questions with three-point Likert Scale (good, moderate, and weak). The Karsh's Model consists of nine steps including top management commitment to change, accountability for change, creating a structured approach for change, training, pilot implementation, communication, feedback, simulation, and end-user participation. Data analysis using descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was done by SPSS software version 16. About 81.9 % of respondents were female and 74.5 have a Bachelor of Nursing (BN) degree. In general, the status of clinical governance implementation in studied hospitals based on 9 steps of the model was 44 % (moderate). A significant relationship was observed among accountability and organizational position (p=0.0012) and field of study (p=0.000). Also, there were significant relationships between structure-based approach and organizational position (p=0.007), communication and demographic characteristics (p=0.000), and end-user participation with organizational position (p=0.03). Clinical governance should be implemented by correct needs assessment and participation of all stakeholders, to ensure its enforcement in practice, and to enhance the quality of services.

  20. SU-F-T-355: Evaluation of Knowledge-Based Planning Model for the Cervical Cancer Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, X; Wang, J; Hu, W

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The Varian RapidPlan™ is a commercial knowledge-based optimization process which uses a set of clinically used treatment plans to train a model that can predict individualized dose-volume objectives. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of RapidPlan to generate intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for cervical cancer. Methods: Totally 70 IMRT plans for cervical cancer with varying clinical and physiological indications were enrolled in this study. These patients were all previously treated in our institution. There were two prescription levels usually used in our institution: 45Gy/25 fractions and 50.4Gy/28 fractions. 50 of these plans were selected to train the RapidPlan model for predicting dose-volume constraints. After model training, this model was validated with 10 plans from training pool(internal validation) and additional other 20 new plans(external validation). All plans used for the validation were re-optimized with the original beam configuration and the generated priorities from RapidPlan were manually adjusted to ensure that re-optimized DVH located in the range of the model prediction. DVH quantitative analysis was performed to compare the RapidPlan generated and the original manual optimized plans. Results: For all the validation cases, RapidPlan based plans (RapidPlan) showed similar or superior results compared to the manual optimized ones. RapidPlan increased the result of D98% and homogeneity in both two validations. For organs at risk, the RapidPlan decreased mean doses of bladder by 1.25Gy/1.13Gy (internal/external validation) on average, with p=0.12/p<0.01. The mean dose of rectum and bowel were also decreased by an average of 2.64Gy/0.83Gy and 0.66Gy/1.05Gy,with p<0.01/ p<0.01and p=0.04/<0.01 for the internal/external validation, respectively. Conclusion: The RapidPlan model based cervical cancer plans shows ability to systematically improve the IMRT plan quality. It suggests that RapidPlan has

  1. SU-F-T-355: Evaluation of Knowledge-Based Planning Model for the Cervical Cancer Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, X; Wang, J; Hu, W [Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, Shanghai (China)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: The Varian RapidPlan™ is a commercial knowledge-based optimization process which uses a set of clinically used treatment plans to train a model that can predict individualized dose-volume objectives. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of RapidPlan to generate intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for cervical cancer. Methods: Totally 70 IMRT plans for cervical cancer with varying clinical and physiological indications were enrolled in this study. These patients were all previously treated in our institution. There were two prescription levels usually used in our institution: 45Gy/25 fractions and 50.4Gy/28 fractions. 50 of these plans were selected to train the RapidPlan model for predicting dose-volume constraints. After model training, this model was validated with 10 plans from training pool(internal validation) and additional other 20 new plans(external validation). All plans used for the validation were re-optimized with the original beam configuration and the generated priorities from RapidPlan were manually adjusted to ensure that re-optimized DVH located in the range of the model prediction. DVH quantitative analysis was performed to compare the RapidPlan generated and the original manual optimized plans. Results: For all the validation cases, RapidPlan based plans (RapidPlan) showed similar or superior results compared to the manual optimized ones. RapidPlan increased the result of D98% and homogeneity in both two validations. For organs at risk, the RapidPlan decreased mean doses of bladder by 1.25Gy/1.13Gy (internal/external validation) on average, with p=0.12/p<0.01. The mean dose of rectum and bowel were also decreased by an average of 2.64Gy/0.83Gy and 0.66Gy/1.05Gy,with p<0.01/ p<0.01and p=0.04/<0.01 for the internal/external validation, respectively. Conclusion: The RapidPlan model based cervical cancer plans shows ability to systematically improve the IMRT plan quality. It suggests that RapidPlan has

  2. Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.; Soh, M. H.

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor water-use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end-use in total residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water-use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water-uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density, lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water-use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden

  3. Evaluation of eco-physiological indicators in Northeast Asia dryland regions based on MODIS products and ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, W.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem carbon-energy-water circles have significant effect on function and structure and vice verse. Based on these circles mechanism, some eco-physiological indicators, like Transpiration (T), gross primary productivity (GPP), light use efficiency (LUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), are commonly applied to assess terrestrial ecosystem function and structure dynamics. The ecosystem weakened function and simple structure in Northeast dryland regions resulted from land degradation or desertification, which could be demonstrated by above-mentioned indicators. In this study, based on MODIS atmosphere (MYD07, MYD04, MYD06 data) and land products (MYD13A2 NDVI, MYD11A1 LST, MYD15A2 LAI and land cover data), we first retrieved transpiration and LUE via Penman-Monteith Model and modified Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), respectively; and then evaluated dynamics of these eco-physiological indicators (Tair, VPD, T, LUE, GPP and WUE) and some hotspots were found for next land degradation assessment. The results showed: (1) LUE and WUE are lower in barren or sparsely vegetated area and grasslands than in forest and croplands. (2) Whereas, all indicators presented higher variability in grassland area, particularly in east Mongolia. (3) GPP and transpiration have larger variability than other indicators due to fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). These eco-physiological indicators are expected to continue to change under future climate change and to help to assess land degradation from ecosystem energy-water-carbon perspectives.

  4. IN VITRO MODELS TO EVALUATE DRUG-INDUCED HYPERSENSITIVITY: POTENTIAL TEST BASED ON ACTIVATION OF DENDRITIC CELLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Galbiati

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Hypersensitivity drug reactions (HDRs are the adverse effect of pharmaceuticals that clinically resemble allergy. HDRs account for approximately 1/6 of drug-induced adverse effects, and include immune-mediated ('allergic' and non immune-mediated ('pseudo allergic' reactions. In recent years, the severe and unpredicted drug adverse events clearly indicate that the immune system can be a critical target of drugs. Enhanced prediction in preclinical safety evaluation is, therefore, crucial. Nowadays, there are no validated in vitro or in vivo methods to screen the sensitizing potential of drugs in the pre-clinical phase. The problem of non-predictability of immunologically-based hypersensitivity reactions is related to the lack of appropriate experimental models rather than to the lack of -understanding of the adverse phenomenon.We recently established experimental conditions and markers to correctly identify drug associated with in vivo hypersensitivity reactions using THP-1 cells and IL-8 production, CD86 and CD54 expression. The proposed in vitro method benefits from a rationalistic approach with the idea that allergenic drugs share with chemical allergens common mechanisms of cell activation. This assay can be easily incorporated into drug development for hazard identification of drugs, which may have the potential to cause in vivo hypersensitivity reactions. The purpose of this review is to assess the state of the art of in vitro models to assess the allergenic potential of drugs based on the activation of dendritic cells.

  5. The EU model evaluation group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1999-01-01

    The model evaluation group (MEG) was launched in 1992 growing out of the Major Technological Hazards Programme with EU/DG XII. The goal of MEG was to improve the culture in which models were developed, particularly by encouraging voluntary model evaluation procedures based on a formalised and consensus protocol. The evaluation intended to assess the fitness-for-purpose of the models being used as a measure of the quality. The approach adopted was focused on developing a generic model evaluation protocol and subsequent targeting this onto specific areas of application. Five such developments have been initiated, on heavy gas dispersion, liquid pool fires, gas explosions, human factors and momentum fires. The quality of models is an important element when complying with the 'Seveso Directive' requiring that the safety reports submitted to the authorities comprise an assessment of the extent and severity of the consequences of identified major accidents. Further, the quality of models become important in the land use planning process, where the proximity of industrial sites to vulnerable areas may be critical. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  6. Multi-Hydro: a multi module physically based model to evaluate effect of implementation of the flood resilience measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giangola-Murzyn, A.; Gires, A.; Richard, J.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays cities are rapidly growing, gradually transforming the nearby rural area into peri-urban area where the urbanization rate increases again and again. Many of these areas are located in the floodplain. In this context and to facilitate the choice of the protection measure of the building of these areas, the European SMARTeST project (Smart Resilient Technologies and System Tools) aims to create a guideline regrouping the different existing system and their conditions of use for different situations. In this context, the Multi-Hydro model was improved and tested to evaluate the effect of the implementation of the flood resilience measures. This model consists of a coupling between different modules relying on existing and validated hydrological and physically based models for runoff processes, sewer system discharge and subsurface processes. The basic data are rainfall and GIS data of elevation, land use or soil description. However, the data necessary to perform this type of model can be difficult to access. These missing data, which can be evaluated by average values, can cause inaccuracies in the simulated water levels. But if the water level cannot yet able to be connected to survey measurements, the location of this water is very useful to understand the hydrological behavior of the study area. The ability to circle the missing data enables the portability of the model, which is a major advantage for the SMARTeST project. Multi-Hydro can be thus a tool useable by all project partners. The model was implemented on a case study of the Paris area, the city of Villecresnes. Various scenarios in terms of implementation of protection measures are tested under a fixed rainfall scenario. The results of these simulations, analyzed as series of risk maps and by an advanced statistical analysis, show that depending on the selected measures (single barrier or perimeter), the behavior of the watershed is modified. Indeed, the modifications of the land use of the

  7. Model performance evaluation (validation and calibration) in model-based studies of therapeutic interventions for cardiovascular diseases : a review and suggested reporting framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Gray, Jodi; Karnon, Jonathan

    2013-04-01

    Decision analytic models play an increasingly important role in the economic evaluation of health technologies. Given uncertainties around the assumptions used to develop such models, several guidelines have been published to identify and assess 'best practice' in the model development process, including general modelling approach (e.g., time horizon), model structure, input data and model performance evaluation. This paper focuses on model performance evaluation. In the absence of a sufficient level of detail around model performance evaluation, concerns regarding the accuracy of model outputs, and hence the credibility of such models, are frequently raised. Following presentation of its components, a review of the application and reporting of model performance evaluation is presented. Taking cardiovascular disease as an illustrative example, the review investigates the use of face validity, internal validity, external validity, and cross model validity. As a part of the performance evaluation process, model calibration is also discussed and its use in applied studies investigated. The review found that the application and reporting of model performance evaluation across 81 studies of treatment for cardiovascular disease was variable. Cross-model validation was reported in 55 % of the reviewed studies, though the level of detail provided varied considerably. We found that very few studies documented other types of validity, and only 6 % of the reviewed articles reported a calibration process. Considering the above findings, we propose a comprehensive model performance evaluation framework (checklist), informed by a review of best-practice guidelines. This framework provides a basis for more accurate and consistent documentation of model performance evaluation. This will improve the peer review process and the comparability of modelling studies. Recognising the fundamental role of decision analytic models in informing public funding decisions, the proposed

  8. PET Motion Compensation for Radiation Therapy Using a CT-Based Mid-Position Motion Model: Methodology and Clinical Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruis, Matthijs F.; Kamer, Jeroen B. van de; Houweling, Antonetta C.; Sonke, Jan-Jakob; Belderbos, José S.A.; Herk, Marcel van

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Four-dimensional positron emission tomography (4D PET) imaging of the thorax produces sharper images with reduced motion artifacts. Current radiation therapy planning systems, however, do not facilitate 4D plan optimization. When images are acquired in a 2-minute time slot, the signal-to-noise ratio of each 4D frame is low, compromising image quality. The purpose of this study was to implement and evaluate the construction of mid-position 3D PET scans, with motion compensated using a 4D computed tomography (CT)-derived motion model. Methods and Materials: All voxels of 4D PET were registered to the time-averaged position by using a motion model derived from the 4D CT frames. After the registration the scans were summed, resulting in a motion-compensated 3D mid-position PET scan. The method was tested with a phantom dataset as well as data from 27 lung cancer patients. Results: PET motion compensation using a CT-based motion model improved image quality of both phantoms and patients in terms of increased maximum SUV (SUV max ) values and decreased apparent volumes. In homogenous phantom data, a strong relationship was found between the amplitude-to-diameter ratio and the effects of the method. In heterogeneous patient data, the effect correlated better with the motion amplitude. In case of large amplitudes, motion compensation may increase SUV max up to 25% and reduce the diameter of the 50% SUV max volume by 10%. Conclusions: 4D CT-based motion-compensated mid-position PET scans provide improved quantitative data in terms of uptake values and volumes at the time-averaged position, thereby facilitating more accurate radiation therapy treatment planning of pulmonary lesions

  9. Evaluation of model-based versus non-parametric monaural noise-reduction approaches for hearing aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlander, Niklas; Rosenkranz, Tobias; Hohmann, Volker

    2012-08-01

    Single channel noise reduction has been well investigated and seems to have reached its limits in terms of speech intelligibility improvement, however, the quality of such schemes can still be advanced. This study tests to what extent novel model-based processing schemes might improve performance in particular for non-stationary noise conditions. Two prototype model-based algorithms, a speech-model-based, and a auditory-model-based algorithm were compared to a state-of-the-art non-parametric minimum statistics algorithm. A speech intelligibility test, preference rating, and listening effort scaling were performed. Additionally, three objective quality measures for the signal, background, and overall distortions were applied. For a better comparison of all algorithms, particular attention was given to the usage of the similar Wiener-based gain rule. The perceptual investigation was performed with fourteen hearing-impaired subjects. The results revealed that the non-parametric algorithm and the auditory model-based algorithm did not affect speech intelligibility, whereas the speech-model-based algorithm slightly decreased intelligibility. In terms of subjective quality, both model-based algorithms perform better than the unprocessed condition and the reference in particular for highly non-stationary noise environments. Data support the hypothesis that model-based algorithms are promising for improving performance in non-stationary noise conditions.

  10. A Multi Criteria Group Decision-Making Model for Teacher Evaluation in Higher Education Based on Cloud Model and Decision Tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ting-Cheng; Wang, Hui

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a cloud multi-criteria group decision-making model for teacher evaluation in higher education which is involving subjectivity, imprecision and fuzziness. First, selecting the appropriate evaluation index depending on the evaluation objectives, indicating a clear structural relationship between the evaluation index and…

  11. Evaluating precipitation in a regional climate model using ground-based radar measurements in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorodetskaya, Irina; Maahn, Maximilan; Gallée, Hubert; Souverijns, Niels; Gossart, Alexandra; Kneifel, Stefan; Crewell, Susanne; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2017-04-01

    Occasional very intense snowfall events over Dronning Maud Land (DML) region in East Antarctica, contributed significantly to the entire Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) during the last years. The meteorological-cloud-precipitation observatory running at the Princess Elisabeth station (PE) in the DML escarpment zone since 2009 (HYDRANT/AEROCLOUD projects), provides unique opportunity to estimate contribution of precipitation to the local snow accumulation and new data for evaluating precipitation in climate models. Our previous work using PE measurements showed that occasional intense precipitation events determine the total local yearly SMB and account for its large interannual variability. Here we use radar measurements to evaluate precipitation in a regional climate model with a special focus on intense precipitation events together with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics responsible for these events. The coupled snow-atmosphere regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) is used to simulate climate and SMB in DML at 5-km horizontal resolution during 2012 using initial and boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim re-analysis atmospheric and oceanic fields. Two evaluation approaches are used: observations-to-model and model-to-observations. In the first approach, snowfall rate (S) is derived from the MRR (vertically profiling 24-GHz precipitation radar) effective reflectivity factor (Ze) at 400 m agl using various Ze-S relationships for dry snow. The uncertainty in Ze-S relationships is constrained using snow particle size distribution from Snow Video Imager - Precipitation Imaging Package (SVI/PIP) and information about particle shapes. For the second approach we apply the Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer model (PAMTRA), which allows direct comparison of the radar-measured and climate model-based vertical profiles of the radar Ze and Doppler velocity. In MAR

  12. Partnerships Enhancing Practice: A Preliminary Model of Technology-Based Peer-to-Peer Evaluations of Teaching in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servilio, Kathryn L.; Hollingshead, Aleksandra; Hott, Brittany L.

    2017-01-01

    In higher education, current teaching evaluation models typically involve senior faculty evaluating junior faculty. However, there is evidence that peer-to-peer junior faculty observations and feedback may be just as effective. This descriptive case study utilized an inductive analysis to examine experiences of six special education early career…

  13. A State-Based Modeling Approach for Efficient Performance Evaluation of Embedded System Architectures at Transaction Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Barreteau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract models are necessary to assist system architects in the evaluation process of hardware/software architectures and to cope with the still increasing complexity of embedded systems. Efficient methods are required to create reliable models of system architectures and to allow early performance evaluation and fast exploration of the design space. In this paper, we present a specific transaction level modeling approach for performance evaluation of hardware/software architectures. This approach relies on a generic execution model that exhibits light modeling effort. Created models are used to evaluate by simulation expected processing and memory resources according to various architectures. The proposed execution model relies on a specific computation method defined to improve the simulation speed of transaction level models. The benefits of the proposed approach are highlighted through two case studies. The first case study is a didactic example illustrating the modeling approach. In this example, a simulation speed-up by a factor of 7,62 is achieved by using the proposed computation method. The second case study concerns the analysis of a communication receiver supporting part of the physical layer of the LTE protocol. In this case study, architecture exploration is led in order to improve the allocation of processing functions.

  14. The development and evaluation of a 'blended' enquiry based learning model for mental health nursing students: "making your experience count".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigby, Lindsay; Wilson, Ian; Baker, John; Walton, Tim; Price, Owen; Dunne, Kate; Keeley, Philip

    2012-04-01

    To meet the demands required for safe and effective care, nurses must be able to integrate theoretical knowledge with clinical practice (Kohen and Lehman, 2008; Polit and Beck, 2008; Shirey, 2006). This should include the ability to adapt research in response to changing clinical environments and the changing needs of service users. It is through reflective practice that students develop their clinical reasoning and evaluation skills to engage in this process. This paper aims to describe the development, implementation and evaluation of a project designed to provide a structural approach to the recognition and resolution of clinical, theoretical and ethical dilemmas identified by 3rd year undergraduate mental health nursing students. This is the first paper to describe the iterative process of developing a 'blended' learning model which provides students with an opportunity to experience the process of supervision and to become more proficient in using information technology to develop and maintain their clinical skills. Three cohorts of student nurses were exposed to various combinations of face to face group supervision and a virtual learning environment (VLE) in order to apply their knowledge of good practice guidelines and evidenced-based practice to identified clinical issues. A formal qualitative evaluation using independently facilitated focus groups was conducted with each student cohort and thematically analysed (Miles & Huberman, 1994). The themes that emerged were: relevance to practice; facilitation of independent learning; and the discussion of clinical issues. The results of this study show that 'blending' face-to-face groups with an e-learning component was the most acceptable and effective form of delivery which met the needs of students' varied learning styles. Additionally, students reported that they were more aware of the importance of clinical supervision and of their role as supervisees. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of iodide deficiency in the lactating rat and pup using a biologically based dose response (BBDR) Model***

    Science.gov (United States)

    A biologically-based dose response (BBDR) model for the hypothalamic-pituitary thyroid (HPT) axis in the lactating rat and nursing pup was developed to describe the perturbations caused by iodide deficiency on the 1-IPT axis. Model calibrations, carried out by adjusting key model...

  16. Evaluation of iodide deficiency in the lactating rat and pup using a biologically based dose-response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    A biologically-based dose response (BBDR) model for the hypothalamic-pituitary thyroid (BPT) axis in the lactating rat and nursing pup was developed to describe the perturbations caused by iodide deficiency on the HPT axis. Model calibrations, carried out by adjusting key model p...

  17. Skull base tumor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gragnaniello, Cristian; Nader, Remi; van Doormaal, Tristan; Kamel, Mahmoud; Voormolen, Eduard H J; Lasio, Giovanni; Aboud, Emad; Regli, Luca; Tulleken, Cornelius A F; Al-Mefty, Ossama

    2010-11-01

    Resident duty-hours restrictions have now been instituted in many countries worldwide. Shortened training times and increased public scrutiny of surgical competency have led to a move away from the traditional apprenticeship model of training. The development of educational models for brain anatomy is a fascinating innovation allowing neurosurgeons to train without the need to practice on real patients and it may be a solution to achieve competency within a shortened training period. The authors describe the use of Stratathane resin ST-504 polymer (SRSP), which is inserted at different intracranial locations to closely mimic meningiomas and other pathological entities of the skull base, in a cadaveric model, for use in neurosurgical training. Silicone-injected and pressurized cadaveric heads were used for studying the SRSP model. The SRSP presents unique intrinsic metamorphic characteristics: liquid at first, it expands and foams when injected into the desired area of the brain, forming a solid tumorlike structure. The authors injected SRSP via different passages that did not influence routes used for the surgical approach for resection of the simulated lesion. For example, SRSP injection routes included endonasal transsphenoidal or transoral approaches if lesions were to be removed through standard skull base approach, or, alternatively, SRSP was injected via a cranial approach if the removal was planned to be via the transsphenoidal or transoral route. The model was set in place in 3 countries (US, Italy, and The Netherlands), and a pool of 13 physicians from 4 different institutions (all surgeons and surgeons in training) participated in evaluating it and provided feedback. All 13 evaluating physicians had overall positive impressions of the model. The overall score on 9 components evaluated--including comparison between the tumor model and real tumor cases, perioperative requirements, general impression, and applicability--was 88% (100% being the best possible

  18. A GIS-based groundwater travel time model to evaluate stream nitrate concentration reductions from land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

    2007-01-01

    Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) loss from agricultural watersheds is an environmental concern. A common conservation practice to improve stream water quality is to retire vulnerable row croplands to grass. In this paper, a groundwater travel time model based on a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of readily available soil and topographic variables was used to evaluate the time needed to observe stream nitrate concentration reductions from conversion of row crop land to native prairie in Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa. Average linear groundwater velocity in 5-m cells was estimated by overlaying GIS layers of soil permeability, land slope (surrogates for hydraulic conductivity and gradient, respectively) and porosity. Cells were summed backwards from the stream network to watershed divide to develop a travel time distribution map. Results suggested that groundwater from half of the land planted in prairie has reached the stream network during the 10 years of ongoing water quality monitoring. The mean travel time for the watershed was estimated to be 10.1 years, consistent with results from a simple analytical model. The proportion of land in the watershed and subbasins with prairie groundwater reaching the stream (10-22%) was similar to the measured reduction of stream nitrate (11-36%). Results provide encouragement that additional nitrate reductions in Walnut Creek are probable in the future as reduced nitrate groundwater from distal locations discharges to the stream network in the coming years. The high spatial resolution of the model (5-m cells) and its simplicity may make it potentially applicable for land managers interested in communicating lag time issues to the public, particularly related to nitrate concentration reductions over time. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

  19. Evaluating impacts of fire management strategies on native and invasive plants using an individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangur, Alexander N.; Fill, Jennifer M.; Northfield, Tobin D.; van de Wiel, Marco

    2017-04-01

    The capacity for species to coexist and potentially exclude one another can broadly be attributed to drivers that influence fitness differences (such as competitive ability) and niche differences (such as environmental change). These drivers, and thus the determinants of coexistence they influence, can interact and fluctuate both spatially and temporally. Understanding the spatiotemporal variation in niche and fitness differences in systems prone to fluctuating drivers, such as fire, can help to inform the management of invasive species. In the Cape floristic region of South Africa, invasive Pinus pinaster seedlings are strong competitors in the post-burn environment of the fire-driven Fynbos vegetation. In this, system native Protea spp. are especially vulnerable to unseasonal burns, but seasonal prescribed (Summer) burns are thought to present a high safety risk. Together, these issues have limited the appeal of prescribed burn management as an alternative to costly manual eradication of P. pinaster. Using a spatially-explicit field-of-neighbourhood individual-based model, we represent the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in niche differences (driven by fire regimes) and fitness differences (driven by competitive ability). In doing so, we evaluate optimal fire management strategies to a) control invasive P. pinaster in the Cape floristic region of South Africa, while b) minimizing deleterious effects of management on native Protea spp. The scarcity of appropriate data for model calibration has been problematic for models in invasion biology, but we use recent advances in Approximate Bayesian Computing techniques to overcome this limitation. We present early conclusions on the viability of prescribed burn management to control P. pinaster in South Africa.

  20. Individualized Positron Emission Tomography–Based Isotoxic Accelerated Radiation Therapy Is Cost-Effective Compared With Conventional Radiation Therapy: A Model-Based Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bongers, Mathilda L., E-mail: ml.bongers@vumc.nl [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Coupé, Veerle M.H. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); De Ruysscher, Dirk [Radiation Oncology University Hospitals Leuven/KU Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Department of Radiation Oncology, GROW Research Institute, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Oberije, Cary; Lambin, Philippe [Department of Radiation Oncology, GROW Research Institute, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Uyl-de Groot, Cornelia A. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate long-term health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography (PET)-based isotoxic accelerated radiation therapy treatment (PET-ART) compared with conventional fixed-dose CT-based radiation therapy treatment (CRT) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Our analysis uses a validated decision model, based on data of 200 NSCLC patients with inoperable stage I-IIIB. Clinical outcomes, resource use, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Maastro Clinic and the literature. Primary model outcomes were the difference in life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost/utility ratio (ICER and ICUR) of PET-ART versus CRT. Model outcomes were obtained from averaging the predictions for 50,000 simulated patients. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analyses were carried out. Results: The average incremental costs per patient of PET-ART were €569 (95% confidence interval [CI] €−5327-€6936) for 0.42 incremental LYs (95% CI 0.19-0.61) and 0.33 QALYs gained (95% CI 0.13-0.49). The base-case scenario resulted in an ICER of €1360 per LY gained and an ICUR of €1744 per QALY gained. The probabilistic analysis gave a 36% probability that PET-ART improves health outcomes at reduced costs and a 64% probability that PET-ART is more effective at slightly higher costs. Conclusion: On the basis of the available data, individualized PET-ART for NSCLC seems to be cost-effective compared with CRT.

  1. Marker-based or model-based RSA for evaluation of hip resurfacing arthroplasty? A clinical validation and 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzen, Nina Dyrberg; Stilling, Maiken; Jakobsen, Stig Storgaard; Gustafson, Klas; Søballe, Kjeld; Baad-Hansen, Thomas

    2013-11-01

    The stability of implants is vital to ensure a long-term survival. RSA determines micro-motions of implants as a predictor of early implant failure. RSA can be performed as a marker- or model-based analysis. So far, CAD and RE model-based RSA have not been validated for use in hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA). A phantom study determined the precision of marker-based and CAD and RE model-based RSA on a HRA implant. In a clinical study, 19 patients were followed with stereoradiographs until 5 years after surgery. Analysis of double-examination migration results determined the clinical precision of marker-based and CAD model-based RSA, and at the 5-year follow-up, results of the total translation (TT) and the total rotation (TR) for marker- and CAD model-based RSA were compared. The phantom study showed that comparison of the precision (SDdiff) in marker-based RSA analysis was more precise than model-based RSA analysis in TT (p CAD RSA analysis (p = 0.002), but showed no difference between the marker- and CAD model-based RSA analysis regarding the TR (p = 0.91). Comparing the mean signed values regarding the TT and the TR at the 5-year follow-up in 13 patients, the TT was lower (p = 0.03) and the TR higher (p = 0.04) in the marker-based RSA compared to CAD model-based RSA. The precision of marker-based RSA was significantly better than model-based RSA. However, problems with occluded markers lead to exclusion of many patients which was not a problem with model-based RSA. HRA were stable at the 5-year follow-up. The detection limit was 0.2 mm TT and 1° TR for marker-based and 0.5 mm TT and 1° TR for CAD model-based RSA for HRA.

  2. Performance evaluation in competence-based learning model in higher education scenarios using social network: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherina Edith GALLARDO CÓRDOVA

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A research about performance evaluation was conducted in a graduate online course designed in the Based-Competency Model. Facebook was used as a social and interactive tool that would permit sharing information to illustrate various aspects of diverse educational contexts as well as the impacts of the implementation of improvement projects seen from the beneficiaries’ perspective. Case Study was the methodology selected. Postgraduate students got the task to work on certain improvements on learning assessment matters. The educational scenarios were located in Mexico and Colombia. 7 units of analysis were chosen among 34 possible. The findings pointed out that students worked on their contexts in alignment with the stipulated academic competencies. The use of video materials posted and shared using Facebook allowed get a deeper understanding of the way the benefits influenced in each of the educational communities. Besides, these products evidenced students’ appropriate performance. In conclusion, the use of social networks for fortifying performance assessment is highly recommended. Moreover, it is expected that these benefits also influence some of the curricular and instructional design aspects.

  3. Inverse Modeling of Soil Hydraulic Parameters Based on a Hybrid of Vector-Evaluated Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Bo Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The accurate estimation of soil hydraulic parameters (θs, α, n, and Ks of the van Genuchten–Mualem model has attracted considerable attention. In this study, we proposed a new two-step inversion method, which first estimated the hydraulic parameter θs using objective function by the final water content, and subsequently estimated the soil hydraulic parameters α, n, and Ks, using a vector-evaluated genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization (VEGA-PSO method based on objective functions by cumulative infiltration and infiltration rate. The parameters were inversely estimated for four types of soils (sand, loam, silt, and clay under an in silico experiment simulating the tension disc infiltration at three initial water content levels. The results indicated that the method is excellent and robust. Because the objective function had multilocal minima in a tiny range near the true values, inverse estimation of the hydraulic parameters was difficult; however, the estimated soil water retention curves and hydraulic conductivity curves were nearly identical to the true curves. In addition, the proposed method was able to estimate the hydraulic parameters accurately despite substantial measurement errors in initial water content, final water content, and cumulative infiltration, proving that the method was feasible and practical for field application.

  4. Model, analysis, and evaluation of the effects of analog VLSI arithmetic on linear subspace-based image recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvajal, Gonzalo; Figueroa, Miguel

    2014-07-01

    Typical image recognition systems operate in two stages: feature extraction to reduce the dimensionality of the input space, and classification based on the extracted features. Analog Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) is an attractive technology to achieve compact and low-power implementations of these computationally intensive tasks for portable embedded devices. However, device mismatch limits the resolution of the circuits fabricated with this technology. Traditional layout techniques to reduce the mismatch aim to increase the resolution at the transistor level, without considering the intended application. Relating mismatch parameters to specific effects in the application level would allow designers to apply focalized mismatch compensation techniques according to predefined performance/cost tradeoffs. This paper models, analyzes, and evaluates the effects of mismatched analog arithmetic in both feature extraction and classification circuits. For the feature extraction, we propose analog adaptive linear combiners with on-chip learning for both Least Mean Square (LMS) and Generalized Hebbian Algorithm (GHA). Using mathematical abstractions of analog circuits, we identify mismatch parameters that are naturally compensated during the learning process, and propose cost-effective guidelines to reduce the effect of the rest. For the classification, we derive analog models for the circuits necessary to implement Nearest Neighbor (NN) approach and Radial Basis Function (RBF) networks, and use them to emulate analog classifiers with standard databases of face and hand-writing digits. Formal analysis and experiments show how we can exploit adaptive structures and properties of the input space to compensate the effects of device mismatch at the application level, thus reducing the design overhead of traditional layout techniques. Results are also directly extensible to multiple application domains using linear subspace methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  5. Evaluation of an ARPS-based canopy flow modeling system for use in future operational smoke prediction efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. T. Kiefer; S. Zhong; W. E. Heilman; J. J. Charney; X. Bian

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to develop a canopy flow modeling system based on the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model are discussed. The standard version of ARPS is modified to account for the effect of drag forces on mean and turbulent flow through a vegetation canopy, via production and sink terms in the momentum and subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equations....

  6. Development and evaluation of a physics-based windblown dust emission scheme implemented in the CMAQ modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new windblown dust emission treatment was incorporated in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. This new model treatment has been built upon previously developed physics-based parameterization schemes from the literature. A distinct and novel feature of t...

  7. Development and evaluation of multi-agent models of online social influence based on Cialdini’s principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maanen, P.P. van; Vecht, B. van der

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to better understand social influence in online social media. Therefore, we propose a method in which we implement, validate and improve individual behavior models. The behavior model is based on three fundamental behavioral principles of social influence from the literature

  8. The Pedagogical Variation Model (PVM) for Work-Based Training in Virtual Classrooms: Evaluation at Kuwait University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Maria Susy; Aldhafeeri, Fayiz Mensher

    2015-01-01

    A collaborative research initiative was undertaken to evaluate the pedagogical variation model (PVM) for online learning and teaching at Kuwait University. Outcomes from sample populations of students--both postgraduates and undergraduates--from the Faculty of Education were analyzed for comparison. As predicted in the PVM, the findings indicate…

  9. Risk-adjusted capitation based on the Diagnostic Cost Group Model: an empirical evaluation with health survey information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.M. Lamers (Leida)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Diagnostic Cost Group (DCG) model using health survey information. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Longitudinal data collected for a sample of members of a Dutch sickness fund. In the Netherlands the sickness

  10. A Disability and Health Institutional Research Capacity Building and Infrastructure Model Evaluation: A Tribal College-Based Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Corey L.; Manyibe, Edward O.; Sanders, Perry; Aref, Fariborz; Washington, Andre L.; Robertson, Cherjuan Y.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this multimethod study was to evaluate the institutional research capacity building and infrastructure model (IRCBIM), an emerging innovative and integrated approach designed to build, strengthen, and sustain adequate disability and health research capacity (i.e., research infrastructure and investigators' research skills)…

  11. The Evaluation of Land Use Status in Mountainous Counties of Southwest China Based on Comprehensive Evaluation Models: A Case Study of Baoxing County, Sichuan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Mengtian; Shen, Jundi; Chen, Zhehua

    2018-06-01

    In mountainous areas of Southwest China, the land resources are scarce, and the ecological environment is fragile, so it is particularly important to carry out the evaluation of land use status for the sustainability of land development. Taking Baoxing County in Sichuan Province, the typical mountainous county in Southwest China, as an instance, this study refers to the existing research frameworks to establish the evaluation system of land use status. Meanwhile, the comprehensive evaluation models are used to evaluate land use status. As indicated from the results, in Baoxing County, the comprehensive evaluation score of the overall status of land use, the evaluation score of the development degree of land, the evaluation score of the intensive management degree of land and the evaluation score of the comprehensive benefits of land were 83.5, 108.24, 72.25 and 80.77, respectively. Land use status is generally at the relatively rational use stage, and the main problems are the lack of land investment and the low mechanization level of agricultural production. It is suggested to increase the financial investment in land and enhance the intensive degree and comprehensive benefits of land in the future.

  12. Evaluating topic models with stability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, A

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Topic models are unsupervised techniques that extract likely topics from text corpora, by creating probabilistic word-topic and topic-document associations. Evaluation of topic models is a challenge because (a) topic models are often employed...

  13. Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendi Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to apply simple ODE models in the area of modeling the spread of emerging infectious diseases and show the importance of model selection in estimating parameters, the basic reproduction number, turning point, and final size. To quantify the plausibility of each model, given the data and the set of four models including Logistic, Gompertz, Rosenzweg, and Richards models, the Bayes factors are calculated and the precise estimates of the best fitted model parameters and key epidemic characteristics have been obtained. In particular, for Ebola the basic reproduction numbers are 1.3522 (95% CI (1.3506, 1.3537, 1.2101 (95% CI (1.2084, 1.2119, 3.0234 (95% CI (2.6063, 3.4881, and 1.9018 (95% CI (1.8565, 1.9478, the turning points are November 7,November 17, October 2, and November 3, 2014, and the final sizes until December 2015 are 25794 (95% CI (25630, 25958, 3916 (95% CI (3865, 3967, 9886 (95% CI (9740, 10031, and 12633 (95% CI (12515, 12750 for West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, respectively. The main results confirm that model selection is crucial in evaluating and predicting the important quantities describing the emerging infectious diseases, and arbitrarily picking a model without any consideration of alternatives is problematic.

  14. Transformed model fitting. A straightforward approach to evaluation of anisotropic SANS from nickel-base single-crystal superalloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strunz, P.

    1999-01-01

    Schematic description of a special evaluation procedure for data treatment of anisotropic Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is presented. The use of the discussed procedure is demonstrated on a data taken from investigation of precipitation in single-crystal nickel-base superalloys. (author)

  15. Towards a more objective evaluation of modelled land-carbon trends using atmospheric CO2 and satellite-based vegetation activity observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Dalmonech

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystem models used for Earth system modelling show a significant divergence in future patterns of ecosystem processes, in particular the net land–atmosphere carbon exchanges, despite a seemingly common behaviour for the contemporary period. An in-depth evaluation of these models is hence of high importance to better understand the reasons for this disagreement. Here, we develop an extension for existing benchmarking systems by making use of the complementary information contained in the observational records of atmospheric CO2 and remotely sensed vegetation activity to provide a novel set of diagnostics of ecosystem responses to climate variability in the last 30 yr at different temporal and spatial scales. The selection of observational characteristics (traits specifically considers the robustness of information given that the uncertainty of both data and evaluation methodology is largely unknown or difficult to quantify. Based on these considerations, we introduce a baseline benchmark – a minimum test that any model has to pass – to provide a more objective, quantitative evaluation framework. The benchmarking strategy can be used for any land surface model, either driven by observed meteorology or coupled to a climate model. We apply this framework to evaluate the offline version of the MPI Earth System Model's land surface scheme JSBACH. We demonstrate that the complementary use of atmospheric CO2 and satellite-based vegetation activity data allows pinpointing of specific model deficiencies that would not be possible by the sole use of atmospheric CO2 observations.

  16. Non centered minor hysteresis loops evaluation based on exponential parameters transforms of the modified inverse Jiles–Atherton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamimid, M.; Mimoune, S.M.; Feliachi, M.; Atallah, K.

    2014-01-01

    In this present work, a non centered minor hysteresis loops evaluation is performed using the exponential transforms (ET) of the modified inverse Jiles–Atherton model parameters. This model improves the non centered minor hysteresis loops representation. The parameters of the non centered minor hysteresis loops are obtained from exponential expressions related to the major ones. The parameters of minor loops are obtained by identification using the stochastic optimization method “simulated annealing”. The four parameters of JA model (a,α, k and c) obtained by this transformation are applied only in both ascending and descending branches of the non centered minor hysteresis loops while the major ones are applied to the rest of the cycle. This proposal greatly improves both branches and consequently the minor loops. To validate this model, calculated non-centered minor hysteresis loops are compared with measured ones and good agreements are obtained

  17. Evaluation of SCS-CN method using a fully distributed physically based coupled surface-subsurface flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shokri, Ali

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological cycle contains a wide range of linked surface and subsurface flow processes. In spite of natural connections between surface water and groundwater, historically, these processes have been studied separately. The current trend in hydrological distributed physically based model development is to combine distributed surface water models with distributed subsurface flow models. This combination results in a better estimation of the temporal and spatial variability of the interaction between surface and subsurface flow. On the other hand, simple lumped models such as the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) are still quite common because of their simplicity. In spite of the popularity of the SCS-CN method, there have always been concerns about the ambiguity of the SCS-CN method in explaining physical mechanism of rainfall-runoff processes. The aim of this study is to minimize these ambiguity by establishing a method to find an equivalence of the SCS-CN solution to the DrainFlow model, which is a fully distributed physically based coupled surface-subsurface flow model. In this paper, two hypothetical v-catchment tests are designed and the direct runoff from a storm event are calculated by both SCS-CN and DrainFlow models. To find a comparable solution to runoff prediction through the SCS-CN and DrainFlow, the variance between runoff predictions by the two models are minimized by changing Curve Number (CN) and initial abstraction (Ia) values. Results of this study have led to a set of lumped model parameters (CN and Ia) for each catchment that is comparable to a set of physically based parameters including hydraulic conductivity, Manning roughness coefficient, ground surface slope, and specific storage. Considering the lack of physical interpretation in CN and Ia is often argued as a weakness of SCS-CN method, the novel method in this paper gives a physical explanation to CN and Ia.

  18. Assessing community perspectives of the community based education and service model at Makerere University, Uganda: a qualitative evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okullo Isaac

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community partnerships are defined as groups working together with shared goals, responsibilities, and power to improve the community. There is growing evidence that these partnerships contribute to the success and sustainability of community-based education and service programs (COBES, facilitating change in community actions and attitudes. Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS is forging itself as a transformational institution in Uganda and the region. The College is motivated to improve the health of Ugandans through innovative responsive teaching, provision of service, and community partnerships. Evaluating the COBES program from the community perspective can assist the College in refining an innovative and useful model that has potential to improve the health of Ugandans. Methods A stratified random sample of 11 COBES sites was selected to examine the community’s perception of the program. Key Informant Interviews of 11 site tutors and 33 community members were completed. The data was manually analyzed and themes developed. Results Communities stated the students consistently engaged with them with culturally appropriate behaviour. They rated the student’s communication as very good even though translators were frequently needed. Half the community stated they received some feedback from the students, but some communities interpreted any contact after the initial visit as feedback. Communities confirmed and appreciated that the students provided a number of interventions and saw positive changes in health and health seeking behaviours. The community reflected that some programs were more sustainable than others; the projects that needed money to implement were least sustainable. The major challenges from the community included community fatigue, and poor motivation of community leaders to continue to take students without compensation. Conclusions Communities hosting Makerere students valued the

  19. Evaluation of the quality of the college library websites in Iranian medical Universities based on the Stover model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasajpour, Mohammad Reza; Ashrafi-Rizi, Hasan; Soleymani, Mohammad Reza; Shahrzadi, Leila; Hassanzadeh, Akbar

    2014-01-01

    Today, the websites of college and university libraries play an important role in providing the necessary services for clients. These websites not only allow the users to access different collections of library resources, but also provide them with the necessary guidance in order to use the information. The goal of this study is the quality evaluation of the college library websites in Iranian Medical Universities based on the Stover model. This study uses an analytical survey method and is an applied study. The data gathering tool is the standard checklist provided by Stover, which was modified by the researchers for this study. The statistical population is the college library websites of the Iranian Medical Universities (146 websites) and census method was used for investigation. The data gathering method was a direct access to each website and filling of the checklist was based on the researchers' observations. Descriptive and analytical statistics (Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)) were used for data analysis with the help of the SPSS software. The findings showed that in the dimension of the quality of contents, the highest average belonged to type one universities (46.2%) and the lowest average belonged to type three universities (24.8%). In the search and research capabilities, the highest average belonged to type one universities (48.2%) and the lowest average belonged to type three universities. In the dimension of facilities provided for the users, type one universities again had the highest average (37.2%), while type three universities had the lowest average (15%). In general the library websites of type one universities had the highest quality (44.2%), while type three universities had the lowest quality (21.1%). Also the library websites of the College of Rehabilitation and the College of Paramedics, of the Shiraz University of Medical Science, had the highest quality scores. The results showed that there was a meaningful difference between the quality

  20. Evaluating the green practice of food service supply chain management based on fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoying; Zhu, Qinghua

    2017-01-01

    The question on how to evaluate a company's green practice has recently become a key strategic consideration for the food service supply chain management. This paper proposed a novel hybrid model that combines a fuzzy Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL) and Analysis Network Process(ANP) methods, which developed the green restaurant criteria and demonstrated the complicated relations among various criteria to help the food service operation to better analyze the real-world situation and determine the different weight value of the criteria .The analysis of the evaluation of green practices will help the food service operation to be clear about the key measures of green practice to improve supply chain management.

  1. Decision support for choice optimal power generation projects: Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Zhihong; Yang Kun; Sun Yaowei; Yuan Jiahai; Zhang Hongwei; Zhang Zhizheng

    2006-01-01

    In 2002, China began to inspire restructuring of the electric power sector to improve its performance. Especially, with the rapid increase of electricity demand in China, there is a need for non-utility generation investment that cannot be met by government finance alone. However, a first prerequisite is that regulators and decision-makers (DMs) should carefully consider how to balance the need to attract private investment against the policy objectives of minimizing monopoly power and fostering competitive markets. So in the interim term of electricity market, a decentralized decision-making process should eventually replace the centralized generation capacity expansion planning. In this paper, firstly, on the basis of the current situation, a model for evaluating generation projects by comprehensive utilization of fuzzy appraisal and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is developed. Secondly, a case study of generation project evaluation in China is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the model in selecting optimal generation projects and attracting private investors. In the case study, with considerations of attracting adequate private investment and promoting energy conservation in China, five most promising policy instruments selected as evaluation factors include project duration, project costs, predicted on-grid price level, environmental protection, enterprise credit grading and performance. Finally, a comprehensive framework that enables the DM to have better concentration and to make more sound decisions by combining the model proposed with modern computer science is designed

  2. The Maudsley Model of Family-Based Treatment for Anorexia Nervosa: A Qualitative Evaluation of Parent-to-Parent Consultation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Paul; Brown, Jac; Madden, Sloane

    2009-01-01

    This article describes the qualitative analysis of a randomized control trial that explores the use of parent-to-parent consultations as an augmentation to the Maudsley model of family-based treatment for anorexia. Twenty families were randomized into two groups, 10 receiving standard treatment and 10 receiving an additional parent-to-parent…

  3. Interlaboratory evaluation of a cow's milk allergy mouse model to assess the allergenicity of hydrolysed cow's milk based infant formulas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esch, B.C.A.M. van; Bilsen, J.H.M. van; Jeurink, P.V.; Garssen, J.; Penninks, A.H.; Smit, J.J.; Pieters, R.H.H.; Knippels, L.M.J.

    2013-01-01

    This study describes two phases of a multi-phase project aiming to validate a mouse model for cow's milk allergy to assess the potential allergenicity of hydrolysed cow's milk based infant formulas (claim support EC-directive 2006/141/E). The transferability and the discriminatory power of this

  4. Design of a Competency Evaluation Model for Clinical Nursing Practicum, Based on Standardized Language Systems: Psychometric Validation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias-Parra, Maria Rosa; García-Guerrero, Alfonso; García-Mayor, Silvia; Kaknani-Uttumchandani, Shakira; León-Campos, Álvaro; Morales-Asencio, José Miguel

    2015-07-01

    To develop an evaluation system of clinical competencies for the practicum of nursing students based on the Nursing Interventions Classification (NIC). Psychometric validation study: the first two phases addressed definition and content validation, and the third phase consisted of a cross-sectional study for analyzing reliability. The study population was undergraduate nursing students and clinical tutors. Through the Delphi technique, 26 competencies and 91 interventions were isolated. Cronbach's α was 0.96. Factor analysis yielded 18 factors that explained 68.82% of the variance. Overall inter-item correlation was 0.26, and total-item correlation ranged between 0.66 and 0.19. A competency system for the nursing practicum, structured on the NIC, is a reliable method for assessing and evaluating clinical competencies. Further evaluations in other contexts are needed. The availability of standardized language systems in the nursing discipline supposes an ideal framework to develop the nursing curricula. © 2015 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  5. Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunsuke Doi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM, which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS. Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.

  6. Effects of streamflow diversion on a fish population: combining empirical data and individual-based models in a site-specific evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bret C. Harvey; Jason L. White; Rodney J. Nakamoto; Steven F. Railsback

    2014-01-01

    Resource managers commonly face the need to evaluate the ecological consequences of specific water diversions of small streams. We addressed this need by conducting 4 years of biophysical monitoring of stream reaches above and below a diversion and applying two individual-based models of salmonid fish that simulated different levels of behavioral complexity. The...

  7. Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinder, John E.; Rowan, David J.; Smith, Jim T.

    2016-01-01

    Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict "1"3"7Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios. - Highlights: • We developed a model to predict concentration ratios (C_r) for saltwater fish. • The model requires only a single input variable to predict C_r. • That variable is a mean numeric trophic level available at (fishbase.org). • The K concentrations in seawater were not an important predictor variable. • The median-to observed ratio for 56 independently measured C_r was 0.83.

  8. An evaluation of a model for the systematic documentation of hospital based health promotion activities: results from a multicentre study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tønnesen, Hanne; Christensen, Mette E; Groene, Oliver

    2007-01-01

    The first step of handling health promotion (HP) in Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) is a systematic documentation and registration of the activities in the medical records. So far the possibility and tradition for systematic registration of clinical HP activities in the medical records...... and in patient administrative systems have been sparse. Therefore, the activities are mostly invisible in the registers of hospital services as well as in budgets and balances.A simple model has been described to structure the registration of the HP procedures performed by the clinical staff. The model consists...... of two parts; first part includes motivational counselling (7 codes) and the second part comprehends intervention, rehabilitation and after treatment (8 codes).The objective was to evaluate in an international study the usefulness, applicability and sufficiency of a simple model for the systematic...

  9. Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Simon; Coxon, Gemma; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Freer, Jim; Hartmann, Andreas

    2018-02-01

    Chalk aquifers are an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to their properties, they are particularly vulnerable to groundwater-related hazards like floods and droughts. Understanding and predicting groundwater levels is therefore important for effective and safe water management. Chalk is known for its high porosity and, due to its dissolvability, exposed to karstification and strong subsurface heterogeneity. To cope with the karstic heterogeneity and limited data availability, specialised modelling approaches are required that balance model complexity and data availability. In this study, we present a novel approach to evaluate simulated groundwater level frequencies derived from a semi-distributed karst model that represents subsurface heterogeneity by distribution functions. Simulated groundwater storages are transferred into groundwater levels using evidence from different observations wells. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of the model when simulating groundwater level time series using a spilt sample test and parameter identifiability analysis. Secondly, we apply a split sample test to the simulated groundwater level percentiles to explore the performance in predicting groundwater level exceedances. We show that the model provides robust simulations of discharge and groundwater levels at three observation wells at a test site in a chalk-dominated catchment in south-western England. The second split sample test also indicates that the percentile approach is able to reliably predict groundwater level exceedances across all considered timescales up to their 75th percentile. However, when looking at the 90th percentile, it only provides acceptable predictions for long time periods and it fails when the 95th percentile of groundwater exceedance levels is considered. By modifying the historic forcings of our model

  10. Evaluating the effect of human activity patterns on air pollution exposure using an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Oliver; Beelen, Rob M. J.; de Bakker, Merijn P.; Karssenberg, Derek

    2015-04-01

    Constructing spatio-temporal numerical models to support risk assessment, such as assessing the exposure of humans to air pollution, often requires the integration of field-based and agent-based modelling approaches. Continuous environmental variables such as air pollution are best represented using the field-based approach which considers phenomena as continuous fields having attribute values at all locations. When calculating human exposure to such pollutants it is, however, preferable to consider the population as a set of individuals each with a particular activity pattern. This would allow to account for the spatio-temporal variation in a pollutant along the space-time paths travelled by individuals, determined, for example, by home and work locations, road network, and travel times. Modelling this activity pattern requires an agent-based or individual based modelling approach. In general, field- and agent-based models are constructed with the help of separate software tools, while both approaches should play together in an interacting way and preferably should be combined into one modelling framework, which would allow for efficient and effective implementation of models by domain specialists. To overcome this lack in integrated modelling frameworks, we aim at the development of concepts and software for an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework. Concepts merging field- and agent-based modelling were implemented by extending PCRaster (http://www.pcraster.eu), a field-based modelling library implemented in C++, with components for 1) representation of discrete, mobile, agents, 2) spatial networks and algorithms by integrating the NetworkX library (http://networkx.github.io), allowing therefore to calculate e.g. shortest routes or total transport costs between locations, and 3) functions for field-network interactions, allowing to assign field-based attribute values to networks (i.e. as edge weights), such as aggregated or averaged

  11. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  12. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2018-06-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  13. Nephrus: expert system model in intelligent multilayers for evaluation of urinary system based on scintigraphic image analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Jorge Wagner Esteves da; Schirru, Roberto; Boasquevisque, Edson Mendes

    1999-01-01

    Renal function can be measured noninvasively with radionuclides in a extremely safe way compared to other diagnosis techniques. Nevertheless, due to the fact that radioactive materials are used in this procedure, it is necessary to maximize its benefits, therefore all efforts are justifiable in the development of data analysis support tools for this diagnosis modality. The objective of this work is to develop a prototype for a system model based on Artificial Intelligence devices able to perform functions related to cintilographic image analysis of the urinary system. Rules used by medical experts in the analysis of images obtained with 99m Tc+DTPA and /or 99m Tc+DMSA were modeled and a Neural Network diagnosis technique was implemented. Special attention was given for designing programs user-interface. Human Factor Engineering techniques were taking in account allowing friendliness and robustness. The image segmentation adopts a model based on Ideal ROIs, which represent the normal anatomic concept for urinary system organs. Results obtained using Artificial Neural Networks for qualitative image analysis and knowledge model constructed show the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks for qualitative image analysis and knowledge model constructed show feasibility of Artificial Intelligence implementation that uses inherent abilities of each technique in the medical diagnosis image analysis. (author)

  14. Evaluating the environmental fate of pharmaceuticals using a level III model based on poly-parameter linear free energy relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zukowska, Barbara; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank

    2006-01-01

    We recently proposed how to expand the applicability of multimedia models towards polar organic chemicals by expressing environmental phase partitioning with the help of poly-parameter linear free energy relationships (PP-LFERs). Here we elaborate on this approach by applying it to three pharmaceutical substances. A PP-LFER-based version of a Level III fugacity model calculates overall persistence, concentrations and intermedia fluxes of polar and non-polar organic chemicals between air, water, soil and sediments at steady-state. Illustrative modeling results for the pharmaceuticals within a defined coastal region are presented and discussed. The model results are highly sensitive to the degradation rate in water and the equilibrium partitioning between organic carbon and water, suggesting that an accurate description of this particular partitioning equilibrium is essential in order to obtain reliable predictions of environmental fate. The PP-LFER based modeling approach furthermore illustrates that the greatest mobility in aqueous phases may be experienced by pharmaceuticals that combines a small molecular size with strong H-acceptor properties

  15. Evaluating the environmental fate of pharmaceuticals using a level III model based on poly-parameter linear free energy relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zukowska, Barbara [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Chemical Faculty, Gdansk University of Technology, 11/12 G. Narutowicza St., 80-952 Gdansk (Poland); Breivik, Knut [NILU- Norwegian Institute for Air Research, P.O. Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway)]. E-mail: knut.breivik@nilu.no; Wania, Frank [Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario, M1C 1A4 (Canada)

    2006-04-15

    We recently proposed how to expand the applicability of multimedia models towards polar organic chemicals by expressing environmental phase partitioning with the help of poly-parameter linear free energy relationships (PP-LFERs). Here we elaborate on this approach by applying it to three pharmaceutical substances. A PP-LFER-based version of a Level III fugacity model calculates overall persistence, concentrations and intermedia fluxes of polar and non-polar organic chemicals between air, water, soil and sediments at steady-state. Illustrative modeling results for the pharmaceuticals within a defined coastal region are presented and discussed. The model results are highly sensitive to the degradation rate in water and the equilibrium partitioning between organic carbon and water, suggesting that an accurate description of this particular partitioning equilibrium is essential in order to obtain reliable predictions of environmental fate. The PP-LFER based modeling approach furthermore illustrates that the greatest mobility in aqueous phases may be experienced by pharmaceuticals that combines a small molecular size with strong H-acceptor properties.

  16. Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

  17. A model-based evaluation of Marine Protected Areas: the example of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraus, Gerd; Pelletier, Dominique; Dubreuil, Julien

    2009-01-01

    The eastern Baltic cod stock collapsed as a consequence of climate-driven adverse hydrographic conditions and over fishing and has remained at historically low levels. Spatio-temporal fishing closures [Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)] have been implemented since 1995, to protect and restore......, combining an age-structured population module with a multifleet exploitation module and a management module in a single model environment. The model is parameterized based on (i) the large amount of biological knowledge available for cod and (ii) an analysis of existing spatially disaggregated fishery data...

  18. Evaluation Model for Sentient Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mª Florencia Fergnani Brion

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article we made a research about the Sentient Cities and produced an assessment model to analyse if a city is or could be potentially considered one. It can be used to evaluate the current situation of a city before introducing urban policies based on citizen participation in hybrid environments (physical and digital. To that effect, we've developed evaluation grids with the main elements that form a Sentient City and their measurement values. The Sentient City is a variation of the Smart City, also based on technology progress and innovation, but where the citizens are the principal agent. In this model, governments aim to have a participatory and sustainable system for achieving the Knowledge Society and Collective Intelligence development, as well as the city’s efficiency. Also, they increase communication channels between the Administration and citizens. In this new context, citizens are empowered because they have the opportunity to create a Local Identity and transform their surroundings through open and horizontal initiatives.

  19. Evaluation of the base/subgrade soil under repeated loading : phase I--laboratory testing and numerical modeling of geogrid reinforced bases in flexible pavement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    This report documents the results of a study that was conducted to characterize the behavior of geogrid reinforced base : course materials. The research was conducted through an experimental testing and numerical modeling programs. The : experimental...

  20. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  1. The creation and evaluation of a model predicting the probability of conception in seasonal-calving, pasture-based dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenlon, Caroline; O'Grady, Luke; Doherty, Michael L; Dunnion, John; Shalloo, Laurence; Butler, Stephen T

    2017-07-01

    Reproductive performance in pasture-based production systems has a fundamentally important effect on economic efficiency. The individual factors affecting the probability of submission and conception are multifaceted and have been extensively researched. The present study analyzed some of these factors in relation to service-level probability of conception in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy cows to develop a predictive model of conception. Data relating to 2,966 services from 737 cows on 2 research farms were used for model development and data from 9 commercial dairy farms were used for model testing, comprising 4,212 services from 1,471 cows. The data spanned a 15-yr period and originated from seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy herds in Ireland. The calving season for the study herds extended from January to June, with peak calving in February and March. A base mixed-effects logistic regression model was created using a stepwise model-building strategy and incorporated parity, days in milk, interservice interval, calving difficulty, and predicted transmitting abilities for calving interval and milk production traits. To attempt to further improve the predictive capability of the model, the addition of effects that were not statistically significant was considered, resulting in a final model composed of the base model with the inclusion of BCS at service. The models' predictions were evaluated using discrimination to measure their ability to correctly classify positive and negative cases. Precision, recall, F-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated. Calibration tests measured the accuracy of the predicted probabilities. These included tests of overall goodness-of-fit, bias, and calibration error. Both models performed better than using the population average probability of conception. Neither of the models showed high levels of discrimination (base model AUC 0.61, final model AUC 0.62), possibly because of the

  2. Evaluation of the density of the charge trapped in organic ferroelectric capacitors based on the Mott-Schottky model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Won-Ho [Samsung Display Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Jin-Hyuk; Park, Gyeong-Tae; Kim, Jae-Hyun; Bae, Jin-Hyuk [Kyungpook National University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Zhang, Xue; Park, Jae-Hoon [Hallym University, Chuncheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-09-15

    Organic ferroelectric capacitors were fabricated using pentacene and poly (vinylidene fluoride trifluoroethylene) (PVDF-TrFE) as an organic semiconductor and a ferroelectric material, respectively. A paraelectric poly(vinyl cinnamate) layer was adopted as an interlayer between the PVDFTrFE layer and the bottom electrode. The paraelectric interlayer induced a depolarization field opposite to the direction of the polarization formed in the ferroelectric PVDF-TrFE insulator, thereby suppressing spontaneous polarization. As a result, the Mott-Schottky model could be used to evaluate, from the extracted flat-band voltages, the density of the charge trapped in the organic ferroelectric capacitors.

  3. Chronic behavior evaluation of a micro-machined neural implant with optimized design based on an experimentally derived model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrei, Alexandru; Welkenhuysen, Marleen; Ameye, Lieveke; Nuttin, Bart; Eberle, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the mechanical interactions between implants and the surrounding tissue is known to have an important role for improving the bio-compatibility of such devices. Using a recently developed model, a particular micro-machined neural implant design aiming the reduction of insertion forces dependence on the insertion speed was optimized. Implantations with 10 and 100 μm/s insertion speeds showed excellent agreement with the predicted behavior. Lesion size, gliosis (GFAP), inflammation (ED1) and neuronal cells density (NeuN) was evaluated after 6 week of chronic implantation showing no insertion speed dependence.

  4. NEPHRUS: model of intelligent multilayers expert system for evaluation of the renal system based on scintigraphic images analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Jose W.E. da; Schirru, Roberto; Boasquevisque, Edson M.

    1997-01-01

    This work develops a prototype for the system model based on Artificial Intelligence devices able to perform functions related to scintigraphic image analysis of the urinary system. Criteria used by medical experts for analysis images obtained with 99m Tc+DTPA and/or 99m Tc+DMSA were modeled and a multi resolution diagnosis technique was implemented. Special attention was given to the programs user interface design. Human Factor Engineering techniques were considered so as to ally friendliness and robustness. Results obtained using Artificial Neural Networks for the qualitative image analysis and the knowledge model constructed shows the feasibility of Artificial Intelligence implementation that use 'inherent' abilities of each technique in the resolution of diagnosis image analysis problems. (author). 12 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  5. A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Jens Koed; Pilditch, Toby D

    2018-01-01

    In political campaigns, perceived candidate credibility influences the persuasiveness of messages. In campaigns aiming to influence people's beliefs, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) that target specific voters using their psychological profile have become increasingly prevalent. It remains open how effective MTCs are, notably in comparison to population-targeted campaign strategies. Using an agent-based model, the paper applies recent insights from cognitive models of persuasion, extending them to the societal level in a novel framework for exploring political campaigning. The paper provides an initial treatment of the complex dynamics of population level political campaigning in a psychologically informed manner. Model simulations show that MTCs can take advantage of the psychology of the electorate by targeting voters favourable disposed towards the candidate. Relative to broad campaigning, MTCs allow for efficient and adaptive management of complex campaigns. Findings show that disliked MTC candidates can beat liked population-targeting candidates, pointing to societal questions concerning campaign regulations.

  6. Evaluating Uncertainty of Runoff Simulation using SWAT model of the Feilaixia Watershed in China Based on the GLUE Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Huang, G.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, distributed hydrological models have been widely used in storm water management, water resources protection and so on. Therefore, how to evaluate the uncertainty of the model reasonably and efficiently becomes a hot topic today. In this paper, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is constructed for the study area of China's Feilaixia watershed, and the uncertainty of the runoff simulation is analyzed by GLUE method deeply. Taking the initial parameter range of GLUE method as the research core, the influence of different initial parameter ranges on model uncertainty is studied. In this paper, two sets of parameter ranges are chosen as the object of study, the first one (range 1) is recommended by SWAT-CUP and the second one (range 2) is calibrated by SUFI-2. The results showed that under the same number of simulations (10,000 times), the overall uncertainty obtained by the range 2 is less than the range 1. Specifically, the "behavioral" parameter sets for the range 2 is 10000 and for the range 1 is 4448. In the calibration and the validation, the ratio of P-factor to R-factor for range 1 is 1.387 and 1.391, and for range 2 is 1.405 and 1.462 respectively. In addition, the simulation result of range 2 is better with the NS and R2 slightly higher than range 1. Therefore, it can be concluded that using the parameter range calibrated by SUFI-2 as the initial parameter range for the GLUE is a way to effectively capture and evaluate the simulation uncertainty.

  7. Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meijster, Tim; Tielemans, Erik [TNO Quality of Life, Business unit Quality and Safety, Zeist (Netherlands); Warren, Nick [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire (United Kingdom); Heederik, Dick, E-mail: Tim.meijster@tno.n [Utrecht University, Institute of Risk Assessment Sciences, Division of Environmental Epidemiology, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2009-02-01

    Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

  8. Exxon Nuclear Company WREM-based generic PWR ECCS evaluation model. Appendix C to Volume II. Yankee Rowe example problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Core 12, of the Yankee Rowe (YR), plant is to be licensed with the Exxon Nuclear Co. PWR Evaluation Model. This appendix presents methodology and results of an example calculation for the YR plant using the ENC Evaluation Model. This example problem is for the double-ended guillotine cold leg break with a discharge coefficient of 0.6 assuming loss of one emergency diesel. The NSSS supplier has determined this case to give the highest peak cladding temperature (PCT) for Core 11. The YR example problem was performed to determine the maximum acceptable local peak heating rate (Kw/ft). The blowdown was performed with beginning-of-cycle (BOC) ENC fuel at full power with the hot assembly power corresponding to the design peak rod heating rate of 12.9 Kw/ft. The HOT CHANNEL, TOODEE2, and RELAP4-FLOOD runs were made at several reduced hot assembly radial peaks, holding axial peaking constant, until an acceptable PCT was achieved. This procedure results in a PCT of 1834 0 F at a reduced peak linear heating rate of 10.5 Kw/ft for the ENC fuel at BOC. (auth)

  9. Equivalent model construction for a non-linear dynamic system based on an element-wise stiffness evaluation procedure and reduced analysis of the equivalent system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Euiyoung; Cho, Maenghyo

    2017-11-01

    In most non-linear analyses, the construction of a system matrix uses a large amount of computation time, comparable to the computation time required by the solving process. If the process for computing non-linear internal force matrices is substituted with an effective equivalent model that enables the bypass of numerical integrations and assembly processes used in matrix construction, efficiency can be greatly enhanced. A stiffness evaluation procedure (STEP) establishes non-linear internal force models using polynomial formulations of displacements. To efficiently identify an equivalent model, the method has evolved such that it is based on a reduced-order system. The reduction process, however, makes the equivalent model difficult to parameterize, which significantly affects the efficiency of the optimization process. In this paper, therefore, a new STEP, E-STEP, is proposed. Based on the element-wise nature of the finite element model, the stiffness evaluation is carried out element-by-element in the full domain. Since the unit of computation for the stiffness evaluation is restricted by element size, and since the computation is independent, the equivalent model can be constructed efficiently in parallel, even in the full domain. Due to the element-wise nature of the construction procedure, the equivalent E-STEP model is easily characterized by design parameters. Various reduced-order modeling techniques can be applied to the equivalent system in a manner similar to how they are applied in the original system. The reduced-order model based on E-STEP is successfully demonstrated for the dynamic analyses of non-linear structural finite element systems under varying design parameters.

  10. Lessons learnt from comprehensive evaluation of community-based education in Uganda: a proposal for an ideal model community-based education for health professional training institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atuyambe Lynn

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based education (CBE can provide contextual learning that addresses manpower scarcity by enabling trainees acquire requisite experiences, competence, confidence and values. In Uganda, many health professional training institutions conduct some form of community-based education (CBE. However, there is scanty information on the nature of the training: whether a curriculum exists (objectives, intended outcomes, content, implementation strategy, administration and constraints faced. The objective was to make a comprehensive assessment of CBE as implemented by Ugandan health professional training institutions to document the nature of CBE conducted and propose an ideal model with minimum requirements for health professional training institutions in Uganda. Methods We employed several methods: documentary review of curricula of 22 institutions, so as to assess the nature, purpose, outcomes, and methods of instruction and assessment; site visits to these institutions and their CBE sites, to assess the learning environment (infrastructure and resources; in-depth interviews with key people involved in running CBE at the institutions and community, to evaluate CBE implementation, challenges experienced and perceived solutions. Results CBE was perceived differently ranging from a subject, a course, a program or a project. Despite having similar curricula, institutions differ in the administration, implementation and assessment of CBE. Objectives of CBE, the curricula content and implementation strategies differ in similar institutions. On collaborative and social learning, most trainees do not reside in the community, though they work on group projects and write group reports. Lectures and skills demonstrations were the main instruction methods. Assessment involved mainly continuous assessment, oral or written reports and summative examination. Conclusion This assessment identified deficiencies in the design and implementation

  11. A novel hybrid MCDM model for performance evaluation of research and technology organizations based on BSC approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varmazyar, Mohsen; Dehghanbaghi, Maryam; Afkhami, Mehdi

    2016-10-01

    Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a strategic evaluation tool using both financial and non-financial indicators to determine the business performance of organizations or companies. In this paper, a new integrated approach based on the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are proposed to evaluate the performance of research centers of research and technology organization (RTO) in Iran. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) are employed to reflect the interdependencies among BSC perspectives. Then, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is utilized to weight the indices influencing the considered problem. In the next step, we apply four MCDM methods including Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS), Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS), Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis (MOORA), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for ranking of alternatives. Finally, the utility interval technique is applied to combine the ranking results of MCDM methods. Weighted utility intervals are computed by constructing a correlation matrix between the ranking methods. A real case is presented to show the efficacy of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Cost evaluation of cellulase enzyme for industrial-scale cellulosic ethanol production based on rigorous Aspen Plus modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gang; Zhang, Jian; Bao, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Cost reduction on cellulase enzyme usage has been the central effort in the commercialization of fuel ethanol production from lignocellulose biomass. Therefore, establishing an accurate evaluation method on cellulase enzyme cost is crucially important to support the health development of the future biorefinery industry. Currently, the cellulase cost evaluation methods were complicated and various controversial or even conflict results were presented. To give a reliable evaluation on this important topic, a rigorous analysis based on the Aspen Plus flowsheet simulation in the commercial scale ethanol plant was proposed in this study. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) was used as the indicator to show the impacts of varying enzyme supply modes, enzyme prices, process parameters, as well as enzyme loading on the enzyme cost. The results reveal that the enzyme cost drives the cellulosic ethanol price below the minimum profit point when the enzyme is purchased from the current industrial enzyme market. An innovative production of cellulase enzyme such as on-site enzyme production should be explored and tested in the industrial scale to yield an economically sound enzyme supply for the future cellulosic ethanol production.

  13. Evaluation of Osteoconductive and Osteogenic Potential of a Dentin-Based Bone Substitute Using a Calvarial Defect Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Hussain

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the osteoconductive and osteogenic properties of processed bovine dentin using a robust rabbit calvarial defect model. In total, 16 New Zealand White rabbits were operated to create three circular defects in the calvaria. One defect was left unfilled, one filled with collected autogenous bone, and the third defect was filled with the dentin-based bone substitute. Following surgery and after a healing period of either 1 or 6 weeks, a CT scan was obtained. Following sacrificing, the tissues were processed for histological examination. The CT data showed the density in the area grafted with the dentin-based material was higher than the surrounding bone and the areas grafted with autologous bone after 1 week and 6 weeks of healing. The area left unfilled remained an empty defect after 1 week and 6 weeks. Histological examination of the defects filled with the dentin product after 6 weeks showed soft tissue encapsulation around the dentin particles. It can be concluded that the rabbit calvarial model used in this study is a robust model for the assessment of bone materials. Bovine dentin is a biostable material; however, it may not be suitable for repairing large 4-wall defects.

  14. The creation and evaluation of a model to simulate the probability of conception in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy heifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenlon, Caroline; O'Grady, Luke; Butler, Stephen; Doherty, Michael L; Dunnion, John

    2017-01-01

    Herd fertility in pasture-based dairy farms is a key driver of farm economics. Models for predicting nulliparous reproductive outcomes are rare, but age, genetics, weight, and BCS have been identified as factors influencing heifer conception. The aim of this study was to create a simulation model of heifer conception to service with thorough evaluation. Artificial Insemination service records from two research herds and ten commercial herds were provided to build and evaluate the models. All were managed as spring-calving pasture-based systems. The factors studied were related to age, genetics, and time of service. The data were split into training and testing sets and bootstrapping was used to train the models. Logistic regression (with and without random effects) and generalised additive modelling were selected as the model-building techniques. Two types of evaluation were used to test the predictive ability of the models: discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, which includes sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and ROC analysis, measures a model's ability to distinguish between positive and negative outcomes. Calibration measures the accuracy of the predicted probabilities with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, calibration plot and calibration error. After data cleaning and the removal of services with missing values, 1396 services remained to train the models and 597 were left for testing. Age, breed, genetic predicted transmitting ability for calving interval, month and year were significant in the multivariate models. The regression models also included an interaction between age and month. Year within herd was a random effect in the mixed regression model. Overall prediction accuracy was between 77.1% and 78.9%. All three models had very high sensitivity, but low specificity. The two regression models were very well-calibrated. The mean absolute calibration errors were all below 4%. Because the models were not adept at identifying unsuccessful

  15. Model-based analysis of thromboxane B2 and prostaglandin E2 as biomarkers in the safety evaluation of naproxen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahota, Tarjinder; Sanderson, Ian; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of safety in traditional toxicology protocols relies on evidence arising from observed adverse events (AEs) in animals and on establishing their correlation with different measures of drug exposure (e.g., C max and AUC). Such correlations, however, ignore the role of biomarkers, which can provide further insight into the underlying pharmacological mechanisms. Here we use naproxen as a paradigm drug to explore the feasibility of a biomarker-guided approach for the prediction of AEs in humans. A standard toxicology protocol was set up for the evaluation of effects of naproxen in rat, in which four doses were tested (7.5, 15, 40 and 80 mg/kg). In addition to sparse blood sampling for the assessment of exposure, thromboxane B 2 and prostaglandin E 2 were also collected in satellite groups. Nonlinear mixed effects modelling was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the approach. A one-compartmental model with first order absorption was found to best describe the pharmacokinetics of naproxen. A nonlinear relationship between dose and bioavailability was observed which leads to a less than proportional increase in naproxen concentrations with increasing doses. The pharmacodynamics of TXB 2 and PGE 2 was described by direct inhibition models with maximum pharmacological effects achieved at doses > 7.5 mg/kg. The predicted PKPD relationship in humans was within 10-fold of the values previously published. Moreover, our results indicate that biomarkers can be used to assess interspecies differences in PKPD and extrapolated data from animals to humans. Biomarker sampling should be used systematically in general toxicity studies. - Highlights: • Prediction of a drug's safety profile from preclinical protocols remains challenging. • Pharmacokinetic measures of safe exposure (e.g., AUC) ignore the role of biomarkers. • PKPD relationships enable the evaluation of adverse events in a mechanistic manner. • Major differences exist between rats and

  16. Development of an evaluation method for fracture mechanical tests on small samples based on a cohesive zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahler, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The safety and reliability of nuclear power plants of the fourth generation is an important issue. It is based on a reliable interpretation of the components for which, among other fracture mechanical material properties are required. The existing irradiation in the power plants significantly affects the material properties which therefore need to be determined on irradiated material. Often only small amounts of irradiated material are available for characterization. In that case it is not possible to manufacture sufficiently large specimens, which are necessary for fracture mechanical testing in agreement with the standard. Small specimens must be used. From this follows the idea of this study, in which the fracture toughness can be predicted with the developed method based on tests of small specimens. For this purpose, the fracture process including the crack growth is described with a continuum mechanical approach using the finite element method and the cohesive zone model. The experiments on small specimens are used for parameter identification of the cohesive zone model. The two parameters of the cohesive zone model are determined by tensile tests on notched specimens (cohesive stress) and by parameter fitting to the fracture behavior of smalls specimens (cohesive energy). To account the different triaxialities of the specimens, the cohesive stress is used depending on the triaxiality. After parameter identification a large specimen can be simulated with the cohesive zone parameters derived from small specimens. The predicted fracture toughness of this big specimen fulfills the size requirements in the standard (ASTM E1820 or ASTM E399) in contrast to the small specimen. This method can be used for ductile and brittle material behavior and was validated in this work. In summary, this method offers the possibility to determine the fracture toughness indirectly based on small specimen testing. Main advantage is the low required specimen volume. Thereby massively

  17. Estimation of Transmittance of Solar Radiation in the Visible Domain Based on Remote Sensing: Evaluation of Models Using In Situ Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoffoli, M. Laura; Lee, Zhongping; Ondrusek, Michael; Lin, Junfang; Kovach, Charles; Wei, Jianwei; Lewis, Marlon

    2017-11-01

    The transmittance of solar radiation in the oceanic water column plays an important role in heat transfer and photosynthesis, with implications for the global carbon cycle, global circulation, and climate. Globally, the transmittance of solar radiation in the visible domain (˜400-700 nm) (TRVIS) through the water column, which determines the vertical distribution of visible light, has to be based on remote sensing products. There are models centered on chlorophyll-a (Chl) concentration or Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) as both can be derived from ocean color measurements. We present evaluations of both schemes with field data from clear oceanic and from coastal waters. Here five models were evaluated: (1) Morel and Antoine (1994) (MA94), (2) Ohlmann and Siegel (2000) (OS00), (3) Murtugudde et al. (2002) (MU02), (4) Manizza et al. (2005) (MA05), and (5) Lee et al. ([Lee, Z., 2005]) (IOPs05), where the first four are Chl-based and the last one is IOPs-based, with all inputs derived from remote sensing reflectance. It is found that the best performing model is the IOPs05, with Unbiased Absolute Percent Difference (UAPD) ˜23%, while Chl-based models show higher uncertainties (UAPD for MA94: ˜54%, OS00: ˜133%, MU02: ˜56%, and MA05: ˜39%). The IOPs-based model was insensitive to the type of water, allowing it to be applied in most marine environments; whereas some of the Chl-based models (MU02 and MA05) show much higher sensitivities in coastal turbid waters (higher Chl waters). These results highlight the applicablity of using IOPs products for such applications.

  18. Evaluation of water conservation capacity of loess plateau typical mountain ecosystems based on InVEST model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xizhi; Zuo, Zhongguo; Xiao, Peiqing

    2017-06-01

    With increasing demand for water resources and frequently a general deterioration of local water resources, water conservation by forests has received considerable attention in recent years. To evaluate water conservation capacities of different forest ecosystems in mountainous areas of Loess Plateau, the landscape of forests was divided into 18 types in Loess Plateau. Under the consideration of the factors such as climate, topography, plant, soil and land use, the water conservation of the forest ecosystems was estimated by means of InVEST model. The result showed that 486417.7 hm2 forests in typical mountain areas were divided into 18 forest types, and the total water conservation quantity was 1.64×1012m3, equaling an average of water conversation quantity of 9.09×1010m3. There is a great difference in average water conversation capacity among various forest types. The water conservation function and its evaluation is crucial and complicated issues in the study of ecological service function in modern times.

  19. MO-F-CAMPUS-T-04: Development and Evaluation of a Knowledge-Based Model for Treatment Planning of Lung Cancer Patients Using Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, K; Kim, J; Reding, A; Fraser, C; Lu, S; Gordon, J; Ajlouni, M; Movsas, B; Chetty, I [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To describe the development of a knowledge-based treatment planning model for lung cancer patients treated with SBRT, and to evaluate the model performance and applicability to different planning techniques and tumor locations. Methods: 105 lung SBRT plans previously treated at our institution were included in the development of the model using Varian’s RapidPlan DVH estimation algorithm. The model was trained with a combination of IMRT, VMAT, and 3D–CRT techniques. Tumor locations encompassed lesions located centrally vs peripherally (43:62), upper vs lower (62:43), and anterior vs posterior lobes (60:45). The model performance was validated with 25 cases independent of the training set, for both IMRT and VMAT. Model generated plans were created with only one optimization and no planner intervention. The original, general model was also divided into four separate models according to tumor location. The model was also applied using different beam templates to further improve workflow. Dose differences to targets and organs-at-risk were evaluated. Results: IMRT and VMAT RapidPlan generated plans were comparable to clinical plans with respect to target coverage and several OARs. Spinal cord dose was lowered in the model-based plans by 1Gy compared to the clinical plans, p=0.008. Splitting the model according to tumor location resulted in insignificant differences in DVH estimation. The peripheral model decreased esophagus dose to the central lesions by 0.5Gy compared to the original model, p=0.025, and the posterior model increased dose to the spinal cord by 1Gy compared to the anterior model, p=0.001. All template beam plans met OAR criteria, with 1Gy increases noted in maximum heart dose for the 9-field plans, p=0.04. Conclusion: A RapidPlan knowledge-based model for lung SBRT produces comparable results to clinical plans, with increased consistency and greater efficiency. The model encompasses both IMRT and VMAT techniques, differing tumor locations

  20. Quantitative phosphoproteomics using acetone-based peptide labeling: Method evaluation and application to a cardiac ischemia/reperfusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijeratne, Aruna B.; Manning, Janet R.; Schultz, Jo El J.; Greis, Kenneth D.

    2013-01-01

    Mass spectrometry (MS) techniques to globally profile protein phosphorylation in cellular systems that are relevant to physiological or pathological changes have been of significant interest in biological research. In this report, an MS-based strategy utilizing an inexpensive acetone-based peptide labeling technique known as reductive alkylation by acetone (RABA) for quantitative phosphoproteomics was explored to evaluate its capacity. Since the chemistry for RABA-labeling for phosphorylation profiling had not been previously reported, it was first validated using a standard phosphoprotein and identical phosphoproteomes from cardiac tissue extracts. A workflow was then utilized to compare cardiac tissue phosphoproteomes from mouse hearts not expressing FGF2 vs. hearts expressing low molecular weight fibroblast growth factor-2 (LMW FGF2) to relate low molecular weight fibroblast growth factor-2 (LMW FGF2) mediated cardioprotective phenomena induced by ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury of hearts, with downstream phosphorylation changes in LMW FGF2 signaling cascades. Statistically significant phosphorylation changes were identified at 14 different sites on 10 distinct proteins including some with mechanisms already established for LMW FGF2-mediated cardioprotective signaling (e.g. connexin-43), some with new details linking LMW FGF2 to the cardioprotective mechanisms (e.g. cardiac myosin binding protein C or cMyBPC), and also several new downstream effectors not previously recognized for cardio-protective signaling by LMW FGF2. Additionally, one of the phosphopeptides, cMyBPC/pSer-282, identified was further verified with site-specific quantification using an SRM (selected reaction monitoring)-based approach that also relies on isotope labeling of a synthetic phosphopeptide with deuterated acetone as an internal standard. Overall, this study confirms that the inexpensive acetone-based peptide labeling can be used in both exploratory and targeted quantification

  1. Rock mechanics models evaluation report: Draft report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The end result of the KT analysis is a balanced, documented recommendation of the codes and models which are best suited to conceptual subsurface design for the salt repository. The various laws for modeling the creep of rock salt are also reviewed in this report. 37 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  2. Aespoe hard rock laboratory. Evaluation and conceptual modelling based on the pre-investigations 1986-1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wikberg, P.; Gustafson, G.; Rhen, I.; Stanfors, R.

    1991-06-01

    The investigations have been grouped to several geometric scales under the disciplines of geology, geohydrology and groundwater chemistry, transport of solutes and mechanical stability. Geological mapping and geophysical measurements have been made both on a regional and on a site scale. On the site scale additional surface measurements, drilling of 35 percussion boreholes and 19 cored boreholes was made. The results of the geological investigations show that the Aespoe bedrock is a complex mixture between Smaaland granite, Aespoe diorite and fine grained granite. Hydraulic and chemical data was collected from existing well records within the Kalmar County. Hydraulic conductivity measurement and interference pumping tests were made in the core drilled holes and to some extent in the percussion holes. The hydraulic conductors are basically the fracture zones, but one of the most important is a NNW striking system of single fractures which is difficult to distinguish geologically. The chemical conditions of the groundwater and the fracture minerals form water bearing sections of the core drilled holes have been examined. Water samples were collected from percussion boreholes. The groundwater can be divided into three categories. Fresh water down to approximately 50 m depth. Mixed fresh and seawater 50-100 m, present and/or relict seawater 100-500 m and old (relict) seawater below a depth of 500 m. An important task in the evaluations is to set up 'conceptual models'. These models are the basis for calculation of the ambient groundwater situation and the way in which the hydrological regime will change during the excavation of the laboratory. In order to allow for different levels of detail the conceptual models are established on different scales. The geometrical scales chosen are 500 m, 50 m and 5 m. (au)

  3. Evaluation of chemical transport model predictions of primary organic aerosol for air masses classified by particle-component-based factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    C. A. Stroud; M. D. Moran; P. A. Makar; S. Gong; W. Gong; J. Zhang; J. G. Slowik; J. P. D. Abbatt; G. Lu; J. R. Brook; C. Mihele; Q. Li; D. Sills; K. B. Strawbridge; M. L. McGuire

    2012-01-01

    Observations from the 2007 Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007) in Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to evaluate predictions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and two other carbonaceous species, black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO), made for this summertime period by Environment Canada's AURAMS regional chemical transport model. Particle component-based factor analysis was applied to aerosol mass spectrometer measurements made at one urban site (Windsor, ON) and two...

  4. Base Station Performance Model

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, Barbara; Farrell, Ronan

    2005-01-01

    At present the testing of power amplifiers within base station transmitters is limited to testing at component level as opposed to testing at the system level. While the detection of catastrophic failure is possible, that of performance degradation is not. This paper proposes a base station model with respect to transmitter output power with the aim of introducing system level monitoring of the power amplifier behaviour within the base station. Our model reflects the expe...

  5. An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; P. Rifai, Achmad; Aoyama, Hideki

    2016-01-01

    The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts’ uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs. PMID:27070543

  6. Comparison of results from dispersion models for regulatory purposes based on Gaussian-and Lagrangian-algorithms: an evaluating literature study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, H.

    2004-01-01

    Powerful tools to describe atmospheric transport processes for radiation protection can be provided by meteorology; these are atmospheric flow and dispersion models. Concerning dispersion models, Gaussian plume models have been used since a long time to describe atmospheric dispersion processes. Advantages of the Gaussian plume models are short computation time, good validation and broad acceptance worldwide. However, some limitations and their implications on model result interpretation have to be taken into account, as the mathematical derivation of an analytic solution of the equations of motion leads to severe constraints. In order to minimise these constraints, various dispersion models for scientific and regulatory purposes have been developed and applied. Among these the Lagrangian particle models are of special interest, because these models are able to simulate atmospheric transport processes close to reality, e.g. the influence of orography, topography, wind shear and other meteorological phenomena. Within this study, the characteristics and computational results of Gaussian dispersion models as well as of Lagrangian models have been compared and evaluated on the base of numerous papers and reports published in literature. Special emphasis has been laid on the intention that dispersion models should comply with EU requests (Richtlinie 96/29/Euratom, 1996) on a more realistic assessment of the radiation exposure to the population. (orig.)

  7. Reflex-based grasping, skilled forelimb reaching, and electrodiagnostic evaluation for comprehensive analysis of functional recovery-The 7-mm rat median nerve gap repair model revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stößel, Maria; Rehra, Lena; Haastert-Talini, Kirsten

    2017-10-01

    The rat median nerve injury and repair model gets increasingly important for research on novel bioartificial nerve grafts. It allows follow-up evaluation of the recovery of the forepaw functional ability with several sensitive techniques. The reflex-based grasping test, the skilled forelimb reaching staircase test, as well as electrodiagnostic recordings have been described useful in this context. Currently, no standard values exist, however, for comparison or comprehensive correlation of results obtained in each of the three methods after nerve gap repair in adult rats. Here, we bilaterally reconstructed 7-mm median nerve gaps with autologous nerve grafts (ANG) or autologous muscle-in-vein grafts (MVG), respectively. During 8 and 12 weeks of observation, functional recovery of each paw was separately monitored using the grasping test (weekly), the staircase test, and noninvasive electrophysiological recordings from the thenar muscles (both every 4 weeks). Evaluation was completed by histomorphometrical analyses at 8 and 12 weeks postsurgery. The comprehensive evaluation detected a significant difference in the recovery of forepaw functional motor ability between the ANG and MVG groups. The correlation between the different functional tests evaluated precisely displayed the recovery of distinct levels of forepaw functional ability over time. Thus, this multimodal evaluation model represents a valuable preclinical model for peripheral nerve reconstruction approaches.

  8. HMM-based Trust Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ElSalamouny, Ehab; Nielsen, Mogens; Sassone, Vladimiro

    2010-01-01

    Probabilistic trust has been adopted as an approach to taking security sensitive decisions in modern global computing environments. Existing probabilistic trust frameworks either assume fixed behaviour for the principals or incorporate the notion of ‘decay' as an ad hoc approach to cope...... with their dynamic behaviour. Using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) for both modelling and approximating the behaviours of principals, we introduce the HMM-based trust model as a new approach to evaluating trust in systems exhibiting dynamic behaviour. This model avoids the fixed behaviour assumption which is considered...... the major limitation of existing Beta trust model. We show the consistency of the HMM-based trust model and contrast it against the well known Beta trust model with the decay principle in terms of the estimation precision....

  9. Evaluation of three energy balance-based evaporation models for estimating monthly evaporation for five lakes using derived heat storage changes from a hysteresis model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, Z.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    The heat storage changes (Qt) can be a significant component of the energy balance in lakes, and it is important to account for Qt for reasonable estimation of evaporation at monthly and finer timescales if the energy balance-based evaporation models are used. However, Qt has been often neglected in

  10. The quality-of-life burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand adults: A model-based evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Haxby Abbott

    Full Text Available Knee osteoarthritis is a leading global cause of health-related quality of life loss. The aim of this project was to quantify health losses arising from knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand (NZ in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs lost.The Osteoarthritis Policy Model (OAPol, a validated Monte Carlo computer simulation model, was used to estimate QALYs lost due to knee osteoarthritis in the NZ adult population aged 40-84 over their lifetimes from the base year of 2006 until death. Data were from the NZ Health Survey, NZ Burden of Diseases, NZ Census, and relevant literature. QALYs were derived from NZ EQ-5D value set 2. Sensitivity to health state valuation, disease and pain prevalence were assessed in secondary analyses.Based on NZ EQ-5D health state valuations, mean health losses due to knee osteoarthritis over people's lifetimes in NZ are 3.44 QALYs per person, corresponding to 467,240 QALYs across the adult population. Average estimated per person QALY losses are higher for non-Māori females (3.55 than Māori females (3.38, and higher for non-Māori males (3.34 than Māori males (2.60. The proportion of QALYs lost out of the total quality-adjusted life expectancy for those without knee osteoarthritis is similar across all subgroups, ranging from 20 to 23 percent.At both the individual and population levels, knee osteoarthritis is responsible for large lifetime QALY losses. QALY losses are higher for females than males due to greater prevalence of knee osteoarthritis and higher life expectancy, and lower for Māori than non-Māori due to lower life expectancy. Large health gains are potentially realisable from public health and policy measures aimed at decreasing incidence, progression, pain, and disability of osteoarthritis.

  11. Performance evaluation and modeling of a conformal filter (CF) based real-time standoff hazardous material detection sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Matthew P.; Tazik, Shawna K.; Bangalore, Arjun S.; Treado, Patrick J.; Klem, Ethan; Temple, Dorota

    2017-05-01

    Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) systems can provide detection and identification of a variety of targets in the presence of complex backgrounds. However, current generation sensors are typically large, costly to field, do not usually operate in real time and have limited sensitivity and specificity. Despite these shortcomings, HSI-based intelligence has proven to be a valuable tool, thus resulting in increased demand for this type of technology. By moving the next generation of HSI technology into a more adaptive configuration, and a smaller and more cost effective form factor, HSI technologies can help maintain a competitive advantage for the U.S. armed forces as well as local, state and federal law enforcement agencies. Operating near the physical limits of HSI system capability is often necessary and very challenging, but is often enabled by rigorous modeling of detection performance. Specific performance envelopes we consistently strive to improve include: operating under low signal to background conditions; at higher and higher frame rates; and under less than ideal motion control scenarios. An adaptable, low cost, low footprint, standoff sensor architecture we have been maturing includes the use of conformal liquid crystal tunable filters (LCTFs). These Conformal Filters (CFs) are electro-optically tunable, multivariate HSI spectrometers that, when combined with Dual Polarization (DP) optics, produce optimized spectral passbands on demand, which can readily be reconfigured, to discriminate targets from complex backgrounds in real-time. With DARPA support, ChemImage Sensor Systems (CISS™) in collaboration with Research Triangle Institute (RTI) International are developing a novel, real-time, adaptable, compressive sensing short-wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral imaging technology called the Reconfigurable Conformal Imaging Sensor (RCIS) based on DP-CF technology. RCIS will address many shortcomings of current generation systems and offer improvements in

  12. Evaluation of new alternatives in wastewater treatment plants based on dynamic modelling and life cycle assessment (DM-LCA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisinella de Faria, A B; Spérandio, M; Ahmadi, A; Tiruta-Barna, L

    2015-11-01

    With a view to quantifying the energy and environmental advantages of Urine Source-Separation (USS) combined with different treatment processes, five wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) scenarios were compared to a reference scenario using Dynamic Modelling (DM) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and an integrated DM-LCA framework was thus developed. Dynamic simulations were carried out in BioWin(®) in order to obtain a realistic evaluation of the dynamic behaviour and performance of plants under perturbation. LCA calculations were performed within Umberto(®) using the Ecoinvent database. A Python™ interface was used to integrate and convert simulation data and to introduce them into Umberto(®) to achieve a complete LCA evaluation comprising foreground and background processes. Comparisons between steady-state and dynamic simulations revealed the importance of considering dynamic aspects such as nutrient and flow peaks. The results of the evaluation highlighted the potential of the USS scenario for nutrient recovery whereas the Enhanced Primary Clarification (EPC) scenario gave increased biogas production and also notably decreased aeration consumption, leading to a positive energy balance. Both USS and EPC scenarios also showed increased stability of plant operation, with smaller daily averages of total nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, USS and EPC results demonstrated that the coupled USS + EPC scenario and its combinations with agricultural spreading of N-rich effluent and nitritation/anaerobic deammonification could present an energy-positive balance with respectively 27% and 33% lower energy requirements and an increase in biogas production of 23%, compared to the reference scenario. The coupled scenarios also presented lesser environmental impacts (reduction of 31% and 39% in total endpoint impacts) along with effluent quality well within the specified limits. The marked environmental performance (reduction of global warming) when nitrogen is used

  13. Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS) Model based on Clinical Data Measurement towards Quantitative Evaluation of Upper Limb Spasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puzi, A. Ahmad; Sidek, S. N.; Mat Rosly, H.; Daud, N.; Yusof, H. Md

    2017-11-01

    Spasticity is common symptom presented amongst people with sensorimotor disabilities. Imbalanced signals from the central nervous systems (CNS) which are composed of the brain and spinal cord to the muscles ultimately leading to the injury and death of motor neurons. In clinical practice, the therapist assesses muscle spasticity using a standard assessment tool like Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS), Modified Tardiue Scale (MTS) or Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA). This is done subjectively based on the experience and perception of the therapist subjected to the patient fatigue level and body posture. However, the inconsistency in the assessment is prevalent and could affect the efficacy of the rehabilitation process. Thus, the aim of this paper is to describe the methodology of data collection and the quantitative model of MAS developed to satisfy its description. Two subjects with MAS of 2 and 3 spasticity levels were involved in the clinical data measurement. Their level of spasticity was verified by expert therapist using current practice. Data collection was established using mechanical system equipped with data acquisition system and LABVIEW software. The procedure engaged repeated series of flexion of the affected arm that was moved against the platform using a lever mechanism and performed by the therapist. The data was then analyzed to investigate the characteristics of spasticity signal in correspondence to the MAS description. Experimental results revealed that the methodology used to quantify spasticity satisfied the MAS tool requirement according to the description. Therefore, the result is crucial and useful towards the development of formal spasticity quantification model.

  14. Nonparametric evaluation of quantitative traits in population-based association studies when the genetic model is unknown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konietschke, Frank; Libiger, Ondrej; Hothorn, Ludwig A

    2012-01-01

    Statistical association between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype and a quantitative trait in genome-wide association studies is usually assessed using a linear regression model, or, in the case of non-normally distributed trait values, using the Kruskal-Wallis test. While linear regression models assume an additive mode of inheritance via equi-distant genotype scores, Kruskal-Wallis test merely tests global differences in trait values associated with the three genotype groups. Both approaches thus exhibit suboptimal power when the underlying inheritance mode is dominant or recessive. Furthermore, these tests do not perform well in the common situations when only a few trait values are available in a rare genotype category (disbalance), or when the values associated with the three genotype categories exhibit unequal variance (variance heterogeneity). We propose a maximum test based on Marcus-type multiple contrast test for relative effect sizes. This test allows model-specific testing of either dominant, additive or recessive mode of inheritance, and it is robust against variance heterogeneity. We show how to obtain mode-specific simultaneous confidence intervals for the relative effect sizes to aid in interpreting the biological relevance of the results. Further, we discuss the use of a related all-pairwise comparisons contrast test with range preserving confidence intervals as an alternative to Kruskal-Wallis heterogeneity test. We applied the proposed maximum test to the Bogalusa Heart Study dataset, and gained a remarkable increase in the power to detect association, particularly for rare genotypes. Our simulation study also demonstrated that the proposed non-parametric tests control family-wise error rate in the presence of non-normality and variance heterogeneity contrary to the standard parametric approaches. We provide a publicly available R library nparcomp that can be used to estimate simultaneous confidence intervals or compatible

  15. Evaluation of the performance and limitations of empirical partition-relations and process based multisurface models to predict trace element solubility in soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenenberg, J.E.; Bonten, L.T.C. [Alterra, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Dijkstra, J.J. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); De Vries, W. [Department of Environmental Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Comans, R.N.J. [Department of Soil Quality, Wageningen University, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-07-15

    Here we evaluate the performance and limitations of two frequently used model-types to predict trace element solubility in soils: regression based 'partition-relations' and thermodynamically based 'multisurface models', for a large set of elements. For this purpose partition-relations were derived for As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, V, Zn. The multi-surface model included aqueous speciation, mineral equilibria, sorption to organic matter, Fe/Al-(hydr)oxides and clay. Both approaches were evaluated by their application to independent data for a wide variety of conditions. We conclude that Freundlich-based partition-relations are robust predictors for most cations and can be used for independent soils, but within the environmental conditions of the data used for their derivation. The multisurface model is shown to be able to successfully predict solution concentrations over a wide range of conditions. Predicted trends for oxy-anions agree well for both approaches but with larger (random) deviations than for cations.

  16. Evaluation of the interindividual human variation in bioactivation of methyleugenol using physiologically based kinetic modeling and Monte Carlo simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Subeihi, Ala' A.A., E-mail: subeihi@yahoo.com [Division of Toxicology, Wageningen University, Tuinlaan 5, 6703 HE Wageningen (Netherlands); BEN-HAYYAN-Aqaba International Laboratories, Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA), P. O. Box 2565, Aqaba 77110 (Jordan); Alhusainy, Wasma; Kiwamoto, Reiko; Spenkelink, Bert [Division of Toxicology, Wageningen University, Tuinlaan 5, 6703 HE Wageningen (Netherlands); Bladeren, Peter J. van [Division of Toxicology, Wageningen University, Tuinlaan 5, 6703 HE Wageningen (Netherlands); Nestec S.A., Avenue Nestlé 55, 1800 Vevey (Switzerland); Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.; Punt, Ans [Division of Toxicology, Wageningen University, Tuinlaan 5, 6703 HE Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2015-03-01

    The present study aims at predicting the level of formation of the ultimate carcinogenic metabolite of methyleugenol, 1′-sulfooxymethyleugenol, in the human population by taking variability in key bioactivation and detoxification reactions into account using Monte Carlo simulations. Depending on the metabolic route, variation was simulated based on kinetic constants obtained from incubations with a range of individual human liver fractions or by combining kinetic constants obtained for specific isoenzymes with literature reported human variation in the activity of these enzymes. The results of the study indicate that formation of 1′-sulfooxymethyleugenol is predominantly affected by variation in i) P450 1A2-catalyzed bioactivation of methyleugenol to 1′-hydroxymethyleugenol, ii) P450 2B6-catalyzed epoxidation of methyleugenol, iii) the apparent kinetic constants for oxidation of 1′-hydroxymethyleugenol, and iv) the apparent kinetic constants for sulfation of 1′-hydroxymethyleugenol. Based on the Monte Carlo simulations a so-called chemical-specific adjustment factor (CSAF) for intraspecies variation could be derived by dividing different percentiles by the 50th percentile of the predicted population distribution for 1′-sulfooxymethyleugenol formation. The obtained CSAF value at the 90th percentile was 3.2, indicating that the default uncertainty factor of 3.16 for human variability in kinetics may adequately cover the variation within 90% of the population. Covering 99% of the population requires a larger uncertainty factor of 6.4. In conclusion, the results showed that adequate predictions on interindividual human variation can be made with Monte Carlo-based PBK modeling. For methyleugenol this variation was observed to be in line with the default variation generally assumed in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Interindividual human differences in methyleugenol bioactivation were simulated. • This was done using in vitro incubations, PBK modeling

  17. Evaluation of the interindividual human variation in bioactivation of methyleugenol using physiologically based kinetic modeling and Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Subeihi, Ala' A.A.; Alhusainy, Wasma; Kiwamoto, Reiko; Spenkelink, Bert; Bladeren, Peter J. van; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.; Punt, Ans

    2015-01-01

    The present study aims at predicting the level of formation of the ultimate carcinogenic metabolite of methyleugenol, 1′-sulfooxymethyleugenol, in the human population by taking variability in key bioactivation and detoxification reactions into account using Monte Carlo simulations. Depending on the metabolic route, variation was simulated based on kinetic constants obtained from incubations with a range of individual human liver fractions or by combining kinetic constants obtained for specific isoenzymes with literature reported human variation in the activity of these enzymes. The results of the study indicate that formation of 1′-sulfooxymethyleugenol is predominantly affected by variation in i) P450 1A2-catalyzed bioactivation of methyleugenol to 1′-hydroxymethyleugenol, ii) P450 2B6-catalyzed epoxidation of methyleugenol, iii) the apparent kinetic constants for oxidation of 1′-hydroxymethyleugenol, and iv) the apparent kinetic constants for sulfation of 1′-hydroxymethyleugenol. Based on the Monte Carlo simulations a so-called chemical-specific adjustment factor (CSAF) for intraspecies variation could be derived by dividing different percentiles by the 50th percentile of the predicted population distribution for 1′-sulfooxymethyleugenol formation. The obtained CSAF value at the 90th percentile was 3.2, indicating that the default uncertainty factor of 3.16 for human variability in kinetics may adequately cover the variation within 90% of the population. Covering 99% of the population requires a larger uncertainty factor of 6.4. In conclusion, the results showed that adequate predictions on interindividual human variation can be made with Monte Carlo-based PBK modeling. For methyleugenol this variation was observed to be in line with the default variation generally assumed in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Interindividual human differences in methyleugenol bioactivation were simulated. • This was done using in vitro incubations, PBK modeling

  18. FE-ANN based modeling of 3D Simple Reinforced Concrete Girders for Objective Structural Health Evaluation : Tech Transfer Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    The objective of this study was to develop an objective, quantitative method for evaluating damage to bridge girders by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). This evaluation method, which is a supplement to visual inspection, requires only the res...

  19. Development and evaluation of a clinical model for lung cancer patients using stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) within a knowledge-based algorithm for treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin Snyder, Karen; Kim, Jinkoo; Reding, Anne; Fraser, Corey; Gordon, James; Ajlouni, Munther; Movsas, Benjamin; Chetty, Indrin J

    2016-11-08

    The purpose of this study was to describe the development of a clinical model for lung cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) within a knowledge-based algorithm for treatment planning, and to evaluate the model performance and applicability to different planning techniques, tumor locations, and beam arrangements. 105 SBRT plans for lung cancer patients previously treated at our institution were included in the development of the knowledge-based model (KBM). The KBM was trained with a combination of IMRT, VMAT, and 3D CRT techniques. Model performance was validated with 25 cases, for both IMRT and VMAT. The full KBM encompassed lesions located centrally vs. peripherally (43:62), upper vs. lower (62:43), and anterior vs. posterior (60:45). Four separate sub-KBMs were created based on tumor location. Results were compared with the full KBM to evaluate its robustness. Beam templates were used in conjunction with the optimizer to evaluate the model's ability to handle suboptimal beam placements. Dose differences to organs-at-risk (OAR) were evaluated between the plans gener-ated by each KBM. Knowledge-based plans (KBPs) were comparable to clinical plans with respect to target conformity and OAR doses. The KBPs resulted in a lower maximum spinal cord dose by 1.0 ± 1.6 Gy compared to clinical plans, p = 0.007. Sub-KBMs split according to tumor location did not produce significantly better DVH estimates compared to the full KBM. For central lesions, compared to the full KBM, the peripheral sub-KBM resulted in lower dose to 0.035 cc and 5 cc of the esophagus, both by 0.4Gy ± 0.8Gy, p = 0.025. For all lesions, compared to the full KBM, the posterior sub-KBM resulted in higher dose to 0.035 cc, 0.35 cc, and 1.2 cc of the spinal cord by 0.2 ± 0.4Gy, p = 0.01. Plans using template beam arrangements met target and OAR criteria, with an increase noted in maximum heart dose (1.2 ± 2.2Gy, p = 0.01) and GI (0.2 ± 0.4, p = 0.01) for the nine

  20. Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-08-01

    Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

  1. Preparation and tumor cell model based biobehavioral evaluation of the nanocarrier system using partially reduced graphene oxide functionalized by surfactant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Y

    2015-07-01

    lysosomes in 2 hours through endocytosis, then the drug is released in the cytoplasm in 8 hours, and ultimately EPI is delivered into cell nucleus to exhibit medicinal effects in 1 day.Conclusion: The comprehensive exploration of the biological uptake mechanism of functional graphene-mediated tumor cell targeting model provides a typical protocol for evaluation of drug delivery system and will benefit the discovery of new surfactant-modified nanocarriers in nanomedicine. Keywords: biocompatibility, cytotoxicity, drug delivery, controlled release, fluorescence colocalization, epirubicin

  2. Evaluation of animal models of neurobehavioral disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nordquist Rebecca E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Animal models play a central role in all areas of biomedical research. The process of animal model building, development and evaluation has rarely been addressed systematically, despite the long history of using animal models in the investigation of neuropsychiatric disorders and behavioral dysfunctions. An iterative, multi-stage trajectory for developing animal models and assessing their quality is proposed. The process starts with defining the purpose(s of the model, preferentially based on hypotheses about brain-behavior relationships. Then, the model is developed and tested. The evaluation of the model takes scientific and ethical criteria into consideration. Model development requires a multidisciplinary approach. Preclinical and clinical experts should establish a set of scientific criteria, which a model must meet. The scientific evaluation consists of assessing the replicability/reliability, predictive, construct and external validity/generalizability, and relevance of the model. We emphasize the role of (systematic and extended replications in the course of the validation process. One may apply a multiple-tiered 'replication battery' to estimate the reliability/replicability, validity, and generalizability of result. Compromised welfare is inherent in many deficiency models in animals. Unfortunately, 'animal welfare' is a vaguely defined concept, making it difficult to establish exact evaluation criteria. Weighing the animal's welfare and considerations as to whether action is indicated to reduce the discomfort must accompany the scientific evaluation at any stage of the model building and evaluation process. Animal model building should be discontinued if the model does not meet the preset scientific criteria, or when animal welfare is severely compromised. The application of the evaluation procedure is exemplified using the rat with neonatal hippocampal lesion as a proposed model of schizophrenia. In a manner congruent to

  3. ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), a new process-based agro-land surface model: model description and evaluation over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Wang, X.; Magliulo, V.; Wattenbach, M.; Vitale, L.; Di Tommasi, P.; Moors, E. J.; Jans, W.; Elbers, J.; Ceschia, E.; Tallec, T.; Bernhofer, C.; Grünwald, T.; Moureaux, C.; Manise, T.; Ligne, A.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.; Larmanou, E.; Ripoche, D.

    2016-03-01

    The response of crops to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) could have large effects on food production, and impact carbon, water, and energy fluxes, causing feedbacks to the climate. To simulate the response of temperate crops to changing climate and [CO2], which accounts for the specific phenology of crops mediated by management practice, we describe here the development of a process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module, and a very simple parameterization of nitrogen fertilization, into the land surface model (LSM) ORCHIDEEv196, in order to simulate biophysical and biochemical interactions in croplands, as well as plant productivity and harvested yield. The model is applicable for a range of temperate crops, but is tested here using maize and winter wheat, with the phenological parameterizations of two European varieties originating from the STICS agronomical model. We evaluate the ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) model against eddy covariance and biometric measurements at seven winter wheat and maize sites in Europe. The specific ecosystem variables used in the evaluation are CO2 fluxes (net ecosystem exchange, NEE), latent heat, and sensible heat fluxes. Additional measurements of leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground biomass and yield are used as well. Evaluation results revealed that ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) reproduced the observed timing of crop development stages and the amplitude of the LAI changes. This is in contrast to ORCHIDEEv196 where, by default, crops have the same phenology as grass. A halving of the root mean square error for LAI from 2.38 ± 0.77 to 1.08 ± 0.34 m2 m-2 was obtained when ORCHIDEEv196 and ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) were compared across the seven study sites. Improved crop phenology and carbon allocation led to a good match between modeled and observed aboveground biomass (with a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 11.0-54.2 %), crop

  4. Web Based VRML Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiss, S.; Sarfraz, M.

    2004-01-01

    Presents a method to connect VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling Language) and Java components in a Web page using EAI (External Authoring Interface), which makes it possible to interactively generate and edit VRML meshes. The meshes used are based on regular grids, to provide an interaction and modeling

  5. Economic efficiency evaluation of merges and acquisitions in the sector of industry based on nonlinear model of synergistical growth of an industrial corporation value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov A.E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerous research works of the end of the 20th and of the beginning of the 21st century prove that the synergistic effect often declared as the main goal of merges and acquisitions is not generated in fact. This is due to imperfection of the available methodology of its economic evaluation that does not take into account a nonlinear nature of the pooled corporation development. The article suggests a methodology of economic efficiency evaluation of merges and acquisitions in the sector of industry based on identification of synergistically successful acquisition order parameters. These are synergistic effects that with minimal investments in their achievement lead to a disproportionate increase in the value of an industrial corporation. A mathematical model has been created simulating the influence of these investments on the value of an industrial corporation. The model allows one to increase the degree of the decisions validity in merges and acquisitions in the sector of industry.

  6. 基于AHP的作战实验综合量化评估模型%General Quantitative Evaluating Model of Operational Experiment Based on AHP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾亚; 吴从晖; 陆志斌; 李路遥; 盖森

    2017-01-01

    Operational experiment is an important method on researching warfare , and the evaluation of operational experi-ment is an important step which ensures the scientificalness and effectiveness of its conclusion .On the base of researching correlative theories such as AHP and the evaluation to operational experiment , this thesis puts forward a general quantitative evaluating model of operational experiment .The model accomplishes weight-distribution to operational experiment evaluation index system based on AHP , achieves nondimensionalization and normalization to isomeric result of indexes by designing nor -malized functions, and educes general evaluating result with the help of quantitative formula .In the end, a case validates the effectiveness and practicability of model sufficiently .%作战实验是研究战争的重要手段,作战实验评估是确保作战实验结论科学性、有效性的重要环节.在研究作战实验评估、数据分析等相关理论的基础上,针对作战实验评估指标结果异构、评估结论分散等问题,提出了一种作战实验综合量化评估模型,该模型基于层次分析法实现了对评估指标体系的权重分配,构建指标归一化算法实现了对异构的指标结果数据的无量纲和归一化处理,并通过定量计算公式得出作战实验的综合评估结果,最后的案例分析充分证明了模型的有效性和实用性.

  7. Evaluating the Generalization Value of Process-based Models in a Deep-in-time Machine Learning framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, C.; Fang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Deep Learning (DL) methods have made revolutionary strides in recent years. A core value proposition of DL is that abstract notions and patterns can be extracted purely from data, without the need for domain expertise. Process-based models (PBM), on the other hand, can be regarded as repositories of human knowledge or hypotheses about how systems function. Here, through computational examples, we argue that there is merit in integrating PBMs with DL due to the imbalance and lack of data in many situations, especially in hydrology. We trained a deep-in-time neural network, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), to learn soil moisture dynamics from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 3 product. We show that when PBM solutions are integrated into LSTM, the network is able to better generalize across regions. LSTM is able to better utilize PBM solutions than simpler statistical methods. Our results suggest PBMs have generalization value which should be carefully assessed and utilized. We also emphasize that when properly regularized, the deep network is robust and is of superior testing performance compared to simpler methods.

  8. Improved Stability of a Model IgG3 by DoE-Based Evaluation of Buffer Formulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brittany K. Chavez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Formulating appropriate storage conditions for biopharmaceutical proteins is essential for ensuring their stability and thereby their purity, potency, and safety over their shelf-life. Using a model murine IgG3 produced in a bioreactor system, multiple formulation compositions were systematically explored in a DoE design to optimize the stability of a challenging antibody formulation worst case. The stability of the antibody in each buffer formulation was assessed by UV/VIS absorbance at 280 nm and 410 nm and size exclusion high performance liquid chromatography (SEC to determine overall solubility, opalescence, and aggregate formation, respectively. Upon preliminary testing, acetate was eliminated as a potential storage buffer due to significant visible precipitate formation. An additional 24 full factorial DoE was performed that combined the stabilizing effect of arginine with the buffering capacity of histidine. From this final DoE, an optimized formulation of 200 mM arginine, 50 mM histidine, and 100 mM NaCl at a pH of 6.5 was identified to substantially improve stability under long-term storage conditions and after multiple freeze/thaw cycles. Thus, our data highlights the power of DoE based formulation screening approaches even for challenging monoclonal antibody molecules.

  9. Model-based system engineering to evaluate I and C systems human performance in nuclear power plants - 15207

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, P.; Mesquita, F.; Kessel, D.; Jung, J.

    2015-01-01

    In a Nuclear Power Plant, many advantages can be obtained by introducing digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems, such as safety improvement in fault tolerance, self-testing, signal validation, better calibration and greater data capacity. The digital system must be able to meet the needs of the plants and also be compatible with operator capabilities, in a matter that will reduce human error probability. The safety systems must be reliable, with high functionality and availability, and it is essential to have redundancy, independence and diversity among components. I and C systems require a full understanding from plant operators. This paper is intent to propose, by using the C4ISR framework, a simpler and more comprehensive way to represent the architecture of the I and C system framework. The C4ISR framework gives the possibility to define the system under 3 different views: Operational View, Systems View, and Technical View; By using the CORE model-based system engineering software, the systems view of the Plant Protection System is analyzed

  10. Evaluating diffraction-based overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jie; Tan, Asher; Jung, JinWoo; Goelzer, Gary; Smith, Nigel; Hu, Jiangtao; Ham, Boo-Hyun; Kwak, Min-Cheol; Kim, Cheol-Hong; Nam, Suk-Woo

    2012-03-01

    We evaluate diffraction-based overlay (DBO) metrology using two test wafers. The test wafers have different film stacks designed to test the quality of DBO data under a range of film conditions. We present DBO results using traditional empirical approach (eDBO). eDBO relies on linear response of the reflectance with respect to the overlay displacement within a small range. It requires specially designed targets that consist of multiple pads with programmed shifts. It offers convenience of quick recipe setup since there is no need to establish a model. We measure five DBO targets designed with different pitches and programmed shifts. The correlations of five eDBO targets and the correlation of eDBO to image-based overlay are excellent. The targets of 800nm and 600nm pitches have better dynamic precision than targets of 400nm pitch, which agrees with simulated results on signal/noise ratio. 3σ of less than 0.1nm is achieved for both wafers using the best configured targets. We further investigate the linearity assumption of eDBO algorithm. Simulation results indicate that as the pitch of DBO targets gets smaller, the nonlinearity error, i.e., the error in the overlay measurement results caused by deviation from ideal linear response, becomes bigger. We propose a nonlinearity correction (NLC) by including higher order terms in the optical response. The new algorithm with NLC improves measurement consistency for DBO targets of same pitch but different programmed shift, due to improved accuracy. The results from targets with different pitches, however, are improved marginally, indicating the presence of other error sources.

  11. Mobility Models for Systems Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musolesi, Mirco; Mascolo, Cecilia

    Mobility models are used to simulate and evaluate the performance of mobile wireless systems and the algorithms and protocols at the basis of them. The definition of realistic mobility models is one of the most critical and, at the same time, difficult aspects of the simulation of applications and systems designed for mobile environments. There are essentially two possible types of mobility patterns that can be used to evaluate mobile network protocols and algorithms by means of simulations: traces and synthetic models [130]. Traces are obtained by means of measurements of deployed systems and usually consist of logs of connectivity or location information, whereas synthetic models are mathematical models, such as sets of equations, which try to capture the movement of the devices.

  12. On the development and performance evaluation of a multiobjective GA-based RBF adaptive model for the prediction of stock indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babita Majhi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops and assesses the performance of a hybrid prediction model using a radial basis function neural network and non-dominated sorting multiobjective genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II for various stock market forecasts. The proposed technique simultaneously optimizes two mutually conflicting objectives: the structure (the number of centers in the hidden layer and the output mean square error (MSE of the model. The best compromised non-dominated solution-based model was determined from the optimal Pareto front using fuzzy set theory. The performances of this model were evaluated in terms of four different measures using Standard and Poor 500 (S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA stock data. The results of the simulation of the new model demonstrate a prediction performance superior to that of the conventional radial basis function (RBF-based forecasting model in terms of the mean average percentage error (MAPE, directional accuracy (DA, Thelis’ U and average relative variance (ARV values.

  13. Evaluation of CH4 and N2O Budget of Natural Ecosystems and Croplands in Asia with a Process-based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, A.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are important sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but significant sources of other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). To resolve the role of terrestrial biosphere in the climate system, we need to quantify total greenhouse gas budget with an adequate accuracy. In addition to top-down evaluation on the basis of atmospheric measurements, model-based approach is required for integration and up-scaling of filed data and for prediction under changing environment and different management practices. Since the early 2000s, we have developed a process-based model of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles focusing on atmosphere-ecosystem exchange of trace gases: Vegetation Integrated SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT). The model includes simple and comprehensive schemes of carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, allowing us to capture dynamic nature of greenhouse gas budget. Beginning from natural ecosystems such as temperate and tropical forests, the models is now applicable to croplands by including agricultural practices such as planting, harvest, and fertilizer input. Global simulation results have been published from several papers, but model validation and benchmarking using up-to-date observations are remained for works. The model is now applied to several practical issues such as evaluation of N2O emission from bio-fuel croplands, which are expected to accomplish the mitigation target of the Paris Agreement. We also show several topics about basic model development such as revised CH4 emission affected by dynamic water-table and refined N2O emission from nitrification.

  14. Evaluation of a Digital Game-Based Learning Program for Enhancing Youth Mental Health: A Structural Equation Modeling of the Program Effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huen, Jenny My; Lai, Eliza Sy; Shum, Angie Ky; So, Sam Wk; Chan, Melissa Ky; Wong, Paul Wc; Law, Y W; Yip, Paul Sf

    2016-10-07

    Digital game-based learning (DGBL) makes use of the entertaining power of digital games for educational purposes. Effectiveness assessment of DGBL programs has been underexplored and no attempt has been made to simultaneously model both important components of DGBL: learning attainment (ie, educational purposes of DGBL) and engagement of users (ie, entertaining power of DGBL) in evaluating program effectiveness. This study aimed to describe and evaluate an Internet-based DGBL program, Professor Gooley and the Flame of Mind, which promotes mental health to adolescents in a positive youth development approach. In particular, we investigated whether user engagement in the DGBL program could enhance their attainment on each of the learning constructs per DGBL module and subsequently enhance their mental health as measured by psychological well-being. Users were assessed on their attainment on each learning construct, psychological well-being, and engagement in each of the modules. One structural equation model was constructed for each DGBL module to model the effect of users' engagement and attainment on the learning construct on their psychological well-being. Of the 498 secondary school students that registered and participated from the first module of the DGBL program, 192 completed all 8 modules of the program. Results from structural equation modeling suggested that a higher extent of engagement in the program activities facilitated users' attainment on the learning constructs on most of the modules and in turn enhanced their psychological well-being after controlling for users' initial psychological well-being and initial attainment on the constructs. This study provided evidence that Internet intervention for mental health, implemented with the technologies and digital innovations of DGBL, could enhance youth mental health. Structural equation modeling is a promising approach in evaluating the effectiveness of DGBL programs.

  15. A Balanced Scorecard-Based Model for Evaluating E-Learning and Conventional Pedagogical Activities in Nursing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovelja, Tomaž; Vavpotic, Damjan; Žvanut, Boštjan

    2016-01-01

    The evaluation of e-learning and conventional pedagogical activities in nursing programmes has focused either on a single pedagogical activity or the entire curriculum, and only on students' or teachers' perspective. The goal of this study was to design and test a novel approach for evaluation of e-learning and conventional pedagogical activities…

  16. Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological review of health technology assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bethany Shinkins

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. Methods We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1 what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2 which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3 how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4 how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5 for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. Results The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings

  17. Knowledge Operation Capability Evaluation Model and Strategic Orientation of Supply Chain: Exploratory Research Based on View of Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wen-Yong; Song, Ze-Qian

    The competitiveness of Supply Chain (SC) correlates intimately with its knowledge operation (KO). In order to realize better assessment value, this paper constructed an evaluation framework on knowledge operation of SC and a detailed index system. According to theory of ecology, expounded the evaluation orientation and future research direction from view of comprehensiveness and adaptability. Additionally, a case about Toyota recall-gate was analyzed. Through research, it provides two dimensions of results evaluating orientation which may help enterprise make right decision upon SC.

  18. Evaluation of the validity of treatment decisions based on surrogate country models before introduction of the Polish FRAX and recommendations in comparison to current practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glinkowski, Wojciech M; Narloch, Jerzy; Glinkowska, Bożena; Bandura, Małgorzata

    2018-03-01

    Patients diagnosed before the Polish FRAX was introduced may require re-evaluation and treatment changes if the diagnosis was established according to a surrogate country FRAX score. The aim of the study was to evaluate the validity of treatment decisions based on the surrogate country model before introduction of the Polish FRAX and to provide recommendations based on the current practice. We evaluated a group of 142 postmenopausal women (70.7 ±8.9 years) who underwent bone mineral density measurements. We used 22 country-specific FRAX models and compared these to the Polish model. The mean risk values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures within 10 years were 4.575 (from 0.82 to 8.46) and 12.47% (from 2.18 to 21.65), respectively. In the case of a major fracture, 94.4% of women would receive lifestyle advice, and 5.6% would receive treatment according to the Polish FRAX using the guidelines of the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF). Polish treatment thresholds would implement pharmacotherapy in 32.4% of the study group. In the case of hip fractures, 45% of women according to the NOF would require pharmacotherapy but only 9.8% of women would qualify according to Polish guidelines. Nearly all surrogate FRAX calculator scores proved significantly different form Polish ( p > 0.05). More patients might have received antiresorptive medication before the Polish FRAX. This study recommends re-evaluation of patients who received medical therapy before the Polish FRAX was introduced and a review of the recommendations, considering the side effects of antiresorptive medication.

  19. MTA Computer Based Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Lisa P.; And Others

    The MTA PLATO-based evaluation system, which has been implemented by a consortium of schools of medical technology, is designed to be general-purpose, modular, data-driven, and interactive, and to accommodate other national and local item banks. The system provides a comprehensive interactive item-banking system in conjunction with online student…

  20. Do participation and personalization matter? A model-driven evaluation of an Internet-based patient education intervention for fibromyalgia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camerini, Luca; Camerini, Anne-Linda; Schulz, Peter J

    2013-08-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of an Internet-based patient education intervention, which was designed upon principles of personalization and participatory design. Fifteen months after the first release of the website, 209 fibromyalgia patients recruited through health professionals completed an online questionnaire to assess patients' use of the website, health knowledge, self-management behavior, and health outcomes. These constructs were combined into an a-priory model that was tested using a structural equation modeling approach. Results show that the usage of certain tools of the website - designed and personalized involving the end users - impacts patients' health knowledge, which in turn impacts self-management. Improvements in self-management ultimately lower the impact of Fibromyalgia Syndrome leading to better health outcomes. This study empirically confirmed that the adoption of a participatory approach to the design of eHealth interventions and the use of personalized contents enhance the overall effectiveness of systems. More time and effort should be invested in involving patients in the preliminary phases of the development of Internet-based patient education interventions and in the definition of models that can guide the systems' evaluation beyond technology-related variables such as usability, accessibility or adoption. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Dose-reduced CT with model-based iterative reconstruction in evaluations of hepatic steatosis: How low can we go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yasaka, Koichiro, E-mail: koyasaka@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8655 (Japan); Katsura, Masaki [Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8655 (Japan); Akahane, Masaaki [NTT Medical Center Tokyo, 5-9-22 Higashi-Gotanda, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 141-8625 (Japan); Sato, Jiro [Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8655 (Japan); Matsuda, Izuru [Kanto Rosai Hospital, 1-1 Kizukisumiyoshi-cho, Nakahara-ku, Kawasaki, Kanagawa 211-8510 (Japan); Ohtomo, Kuni [Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8655 (Japan)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: To determine whether dose-reduced CT with model-based iterative image reconstruction (MBIR) is a useful tool with which to diagnose hepatic steatosis. Materials and methods: This prospective clinical study approved by our Institutional Review Board included 103 (67 men and 36 women; mean age, 64.3 years) patients who provided written informed consent to undergo unenhanced CT. Images of reference-dose CT (RDCT) with filtered back projection (R-FBP) and low- and ultralow-dose CT (dose-length product; 24 and 9% of that of RDCT) with MBIR (L-MBIR and UL-MBIR) were reconstructed. Mean CT numbers of liver (CT[L]) and spleen (CT[S]), and quotient (CT[L/S]) of CT[L] and CT[S] were calculated from selected regions of interest. Bias and limits of agreement (LOA) of CT[L] and CT[L/S] in L-MBIR and UL-MBIR (vs. R-FBP) were assessed using Bland–Altman analyses. Diagnostic methods for hepatic steatosis of CT[L] < 48 Hounsfield units (HU) and CT[L/S] < 1.1 were applied to L-MBIR and UL-MBIR using R-FBP as the reference standard. Results: Bias was larger for CT[L] in UL-MBIR than in L-MBIR (−3.18 HU vs. −1.73 HU). The LOA of CT[L/S] was larger for UL-MBIR than for L-MBIR (±0.425 vs. ±0.245) and outliers were identified in CT[L/S] of UL-MBIR. Accuracy (0.92–0.95) and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (0.976–0.992) were high for each method, but some were slightly lower in UL-MBIR than L-MBIR. Conclusion: Dose-reduced CT reconstructed with MBIR is applicable to diagnose hepatic steatosis, however, a low dose of radiation might be preferable.

  2. Towards an Agent-Based Modelling Approach for the Evaluation of Dynamic Usage of Urban Distribution Centres

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Duin, J.H.R.; Van Kolck, A.; Anand, N.; Tavasszy, L.A.; Taniguchi, E.

    2012-01-01

    Previous modelling attempts show that theoretically the urban distribution centre appears to be successful in many cases, which is in sharp contrast with the real world showing the fact that only 15 out of 200 urban distribution centres are running after 5 years. It can be concluded that modeling

  3. Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijster, T.; Warren, N.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

    2009-01-01

    Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal

  4. Evaluation of Physiologically-Based Artificial Neural Network Models to Detect Operator Workload in Remotely Piloted Aircraft Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-13

    cognitive state using models or context-sensitive assessment tools, and augment the operator’s performance before performance decrements may occur. The...important to investigate multiple types of model configuations in order to determine if one 13 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for...managing multiple aircraft, potentially leading to performance decrements and mission failure. One solution to address excessive workload from

  5. Model Based Temporal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Marla J.; Spinrad, Paul R.; Fall, Thomas C.

    1988-03-01

    Systems that assess the real world must cope with evidence that is uncertain, ambiguous, and spread over time. Typically, the most important function of an assessment system is to identify when activities are occurring that are unusual or unanticipated. Model based temporal reasoning addresses both of these requirements. The differences among temporal reasoning schemes lies in the methods used to avoid computational intractability. If we had n pieces of data and we wanted to examine how they were related, the worst case would be where we had to examine every subset of these points to see if that subset satisfied the relations. This would be 2n, which is intractable. Models compress this; if several data points are all compatible with a model, then that model represents all those data points. Data points are then considered related if they lie within the same model or if they lie in models that are related. Models thus address the intractability problem. They also address the problem of determining unusual activities if the data do not agree with models that are indicated by earlier data then something out of the norm is taking place. The models can summarize what we know up to that time, so when they are not predicting correctly, either something unusual is happening or we need to revise our models. The model based reasoner developed at Advanced Decision Systems is thus both intuitive and powerful. It is currently being used on one operational system and several prototype systems. It has enough power to be used in domains spanning the spectrum from manufacturing engineering and project management to low-intensity conflict and strategic assessment.

  6. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  7. A new in vitro lipid digestion - in vivo absorption model to evaluate the mechanisms of drug absorption from lipid-based formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crum, Matthew F; Trevaskis, Natalie L; Williams, Hywel D; Pouton, Colin W; Porter, Christopher J H

    2016-04-01

    In vitro lipid digestion models are commonly used to screen lipid-based formulations (LBF), but in vitro-in vivo correlations are in some cases unsuccessful. Here we enhance the scope of the lipid digestion test by incorporating an absorption 'sink' into the experimental model. An in vitro model of lipid digestion was coupled directly to a single pass in situ intestinal perfusion experiment in an anaesthetised rat. The model allowed simultaneous real-time analysis of the digestion and absorption of LBFs of fenofibrate and was employed to evaluate the influence of formulation digestion, supersaturation and precipitation on drug absorption. Formulations containing higher quantities of co-solvent and surfactant resulted in higher supersaturation and more rapid drug precipitation in vitro when compared to those containing higher quantities of lipid. In contrast, when the same formulations were examined using the coupled in vitro lipid digestion - in vivo absorption model, drug flux into the mesenteric vein was similar regardless of in vitro formulation performance. For some drugs, simple in vitro lipid digestion models may underestimate the potential for absorption from LBFs. Consistent with recent in vivo studies, drug absorption for rapidly absorbed drugs such as fenofibrate may occur even when drug precipitation is apparent during in vitro digestion.

  8. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

    2018-03-01

    Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

  9. Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

    2017-06-01

    Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

  10. Modeling approaches for characterizing and evaluating environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials in support of risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Michael; Grieger, Khara D; Money, Eric S; Johnston, John M; Wiesner, Mark R; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2013-02-05

    As the use of engineered nanomaterials becomes more prevalent, the likelihood of unintended exposure to these materials also increases. Given the current scarcity of experimental data regarding fate, transport, and bioavailability, determining potential environmental exposure to these materials requires an in depth analysis of modeling techniques that can be used in both the near- and long-term. Here, we provide a critical review of traditional and emerging exposure modeling approaches to highlight the challenges that scientists and decision-makers face when developing environmental exposure and risk assessments for nanomaterials. We find that accounting for nanospecific properties, overcoming data gaps, realizing model limitations, and handling uncertainty are key to developing informative and reliable environmental exposure and risk assessments for engineered nanomaterials. We find methods suited to recognizing and addressing significant uncertainty to be most appropriate for near-term environmental exposure modeling, given the current state of information and the current insufficiency of established deterministic models to address environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials.

  11. Designing of Success Criteria-based Evaluation Model for Assessing the Research Collaboration between University and Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Abeda Muhammad Iqbal; Adnan Shahid Khan; Saima Iqbal; Aslan Amat Senin

    2011-01-01

    Innovations and inventions are not outcomes of single activity of any organization. This is a resultof collaboration of different partners. Collaborated research of university and industry canenhance the ability of scientist to make significant advances in their fields. The evaluation ofcollaborated research between university and industry has created the greatest interest amongstthe collaborational researchers as it can determine the feasibility and value of thecollaboration. This paper inte...

  12. An evaluation of the coping patterns of rape victims: integration with a schema-based information-processing model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littleton, Heather

    2007-08-01

    The current study sought to provide an expansion of Resick and Schnicke's information-processing model of interpersonal violence response. Their model posits that interpersonal violence threatens victims' schematic beliefs and that victims can resolve this threat through assimilation, accommodation, or overaccommodation. In addition, it is hypothesized that how victims resolve schematic threat affects their coping strategies. To test this hypothesis, a cluster analysis of rape victims' coping patterns was conducted. Victims' coping patterns were related to distress, self-worth, and rape label in ways consistent with predictions. Thus, future research should focus on the implications of how victims integrate trauma with schemas.

  13. Evaluating the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China based on FAREAST model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shanshan; Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H.; Yan, Xiaodong

    2018-03-01

    Mountain forests provide the main water resources and lumber for Northwest China. The understanding of the differences in forests growing among individual slope aspects in mountainous regions is of great significance to the wise management and planning of these natural systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China by using the dynamic forest succession model (FAREAST). First, the simulated forest composition and vertical forest zonation produced by the model were compared against recorded data in three sub-regions of the Altai Mountains. The FAREAST model accurately reproduced the vertical zonation, forest composition, growth curves of the dominant species (Larix sibirica), and forest biomass in the Altai Mountains. Transitions along the forest zones of the Altai Mountains averaged about a 400 m difference between the northern and southern sites. Biomass for forests on north-facing slopes were 11.0, 15.3 and 55.9 t C ha-1 higher than for south-facing slopes in the Northeast, Central and Southeast sub-regions, respectively. Second, our analyses showed that the FAREAST model can be used to predict dynamic forest succession in Northwest China under the influence of slope and aspect. In the Altai Mountains, the north-facing slopes supported the best forest growth, followed by the west- and east-facing slopes. South-facing slopes consistently exhibited the lowest growth, biomass storage and forest diversity.

  14. Comparative Evaluation of Different Computational Models for Performance of Air Source Heat Pumps Based on Real World Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tabatabaei, Seyed Amin; Treur, Jan; Waumans, Erik

    2015-01-01

    To reduce energy usage and CO2 emission due to heating, heat pumps have turned out a good option. For example, to obtain a net zero house, often a combination of solar panels and a heat pump is used. A computational model of the performance of a heat pump provides a useful tool for prediction and

  15. Chironomid-based water depth reconstructions: an independent evaluation of site-specific and local inference models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engels, S.; Cwynar, L.C.; Rees, A.B.H.; Shuman, B.N.

    2012-01-01

    Water depth is an important environmental variable that explains a significant portion of the variation in the chironomid fauna of shallow lakes. We developed site-specific and local chironomid water-depth inference models using 26 and 104 surface-sediment samples, respectively, from seven

  16. Evaluation of plan quality assurance models for prostate cancer patients based on fully automatically generated Pareto-optimal treatment plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yibing; Breedveld, Sebastiaan; Heijmen, Ben; Petit, Steven F

    2016-06-07

    IMRT planning with commercial Treatment Planning Systems (TPSs) is a trial-and-error process. Consequently, the quality of treatment plans may not be consistent among patients, planners and institutions. Recently, different plan quality assurance (QA) models have been proposed, that could flag and guide improvement of suboptimal treatment plans. However, the performance of these models was validated using plans that were created using the conventional trail-and-error treatment planning process. Consequently, it is challenging to assess and compare quantitatively the accuracy of different treatment planning QA models. Therefore, we created a golden standard dataset of consistently planned Pareto-optimal IMRT plans for 115 prostate patients. Next, the dataset was used to assess the performance of a treatment planning QA model that uses the overlap volume histogram (OVH). 115 prostate IMRT plans were fully automatically planned using our in-house developed TPS Erasmus-iCycle. An existing OVH model was trained on the plans of 58 of the patients. Next it was applied to predict DVHs of the rectum, bladder and anus of the remaining 57 patients. The predictions were compared with the achieved values of the golden standard plans for the rectum D mean, V 65, and V 75, and D mean of the anus and the bladder. For the rectum, the prediction errors (predicted-achieved) were only  -0.2  ±  0.9 Gy (mean  ±  1 SD) for D mean,-1.0  ±  1.6% for V 65, and  -0.4  ±  1.1% for V 75. For D mean of the anus and the bladder, the prediction error was 0.1  ±  1.6 Gy and 4.8  ±  4.1 Gy, respectively. Increasing the training cohort to 114 patients only led to minor improvements. A dataset of consistently planned Pareto-optimal prostate IMRT plans was generated. This dataset can be used to train new, and validate and compare existing treatment planning QA models, and has been made publicly available. The OVH model was highly accurate

  17. Evaluation of a comprehensive EHR based on the DeLone and McLean model for IS success: approach, results, and success factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossen, Claus; Jensen, Lotte Groth; Udsen, Flemming Witt

    2013-10-01

    difficult, but was required because a key role was to inform decision-making upon enrollment at other hospitals and systematically identify barriers in this respect. The strength of the evaluation is the mixed-methods approach. Further, the evaluation was based on assessments from staff in two departments that comprise around 50% of hospital staff. A weakness may be that staff assessment plays a major role in interviews and survey. These though are supplemented by performance data and observation. Also, the evaluation primarily reports upon the dimension 'user satisfaction', since use of the EHR is mandatory. Finally, generalizability may be low, since the evaluation was not based on a validated survey. All in all, however, the evaluation proposes an evaluation design in constrained circumstances. Despite inherent limitations, evaluation of a comprehensive EHR shortly after implementation may be necessary, can be conducted, and may inform political decision making. The updated DeLone and McLean framework was constructive in the overall design of the evaluation of the EHR implementation, and allowed the model to be adapted to the health care domain by being methodological flexible. The mixed-methods case study produced valid and reliable results, and was accepted by staff, system providers, and political decision makers. The successful implementation may be attributed to the configurability of the EHR and to factors such as an experienced, competent implementation organization at the hospital, upgraded soft- and hardware, and a high degree of user involvement. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The evaluation of a virtual education system based on the DeLone and McLean model:  A path analysis [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Mahmoodi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Internet has dramatically influenced the introduction of virtual education. Virtual education is a term that involves online educ