WorldWideScience

Sample records for evaluating cumulative ecosystem

  1. Evaluation of Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Roegner, G. Curtis; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Skalski, John R.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl; Coleman, Andre M.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Cameron, April; Corbett, C.; Donley, Erin E.; Jay, D. A.; Ke, Yinghai; Leffler, K.; McNeil, C.; Studebaker, Cindy; Tagestad, Jerry D.

    2012-05-01

    This is the seventh and final annual report of a project (2004–2010) addressing evaluation of the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the 235-km-long lower Columbia River and estuary. The project, called the Cumulative Effects (CE) study, was conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District by a collaboration of research agencies led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. We achieved the primary goal of the CE study to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat actions in the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program. We delivered 1) standard monitoring protocols and methods to prioritize monitoring activities; 2) the theoretical and empirical basis for a CE methodology using levels-of-evidence; 3) evaluations of cumulative effects using ecological relationships, geo-referenced data, hydrodynamic modeling, and meta-analyses; and 4) an adaptive management process to coordinate and coalesce restoration efforts in the LCRE. A solid foundation has been laid for future comprehensive evaluations of progress made by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program to understand, conserve, and restore ecosystems in the lower Columbia River and estuary.

  2. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Roegner, Curtis; Thom, Ronald M.; Dawley, Earl M.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Anderson, Michael G.; Ebberts, Blaine

    2005-12-15

    The restoration of wetland salmon habitat in the tidal portion of the Columbia River is occurring at an accelerating pace and is anticipated to improve habitat quality and effect hydrological reconnection between existing and restored habitats. Currently multiple groups are applying a variety of restoration strategies in an attempt to emulate historic estuarine processes. However, the region lacks both a standardized means of evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects as well as methods for determining the cumulative effects of all restoration projects on a regional scale. This project is working to establish a framework to evaluate individual and cumulative ecosystem responses to restoration activities in order to validate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities designed to benefit salmon through improvements to habitat quality and habitat opportunity (i.e. access) in the Columbia River from Bonneville Dam to the ocean. The review and synthesis of approaches to measure the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects focused on defining methods and metrics of relevance to the CRE, and, in particular, juvenile salmon use of this system. An extensive literature review found no previous study assessing the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects on the fundamental processes and functions of a large estuarine system, although studies are underway in other large land-margin ecosystems including the Florida Everglades and the Louisiana coastal wetlands. Literature from a variety of scientific disciplines was consulted to identify the ways that effects can accumulate (e.g., delayed effects, cross-boundary effects, compounding effects, indirect effects, triggers and thresholds) as well as standard and innovative tools and methods utilized in cumulative effects analyses: conceptual models, matrices, checklists, modeling, trends analysis, geographic information systems, carrying capacity analysis, and ecosystem analysis. Potential

  3. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Putman, Douglas A.; Roegner, G. C.; Russell, Micah; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John

    2008-10-01

    The goal of this multi-year study (2004-2010) is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the lower Columbia River and estuary. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. Field research in 2005, 2006, and 2007 involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp vs. marsh), trajectory (restoration vs. reference site), and restoration action (tide gate vs. culvert vs. dike breach). The field work established two kinds of monitoring indicators for eventual cumulative effects analysis: core and higher-order indicators. Management implications of limitations and applications of site-specific effectiveness monitoring and cumulative effects analysis were identified.

  4. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Bryson, Amanda J.; Cameron, April; Coleman, Andre M.; Corbett, C.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Kauffman, Ronald; Roegner, G. Curtis; Russell, Micah T.; Silva, April; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John; Woodruff, Dana L.; Zimmerman, Shon A.

    2010-10-26

    This is the sixth annual report of a seven-year project (2004 through 2010) to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE). The project, called the Cumulative Effects Study, is being conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) by the Marine Sciences Laboratory of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the Pt. Adams Biological Field Station of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST), and the University of Washington. The goal of the Cumulative Effects Study is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the 235-km-long LCRE. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. From 2005 through 2009, annual field research involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp versus marsh), trajectory (restoration versus reference site), and restoration action (tidegate replacement vs. culvert replacement vs. dike breach).

  5. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  6. Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    , Seaplan

    2018-01-01

    Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

  7. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

    2017-09-01

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

  8. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-05-23

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits — fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity—addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for

  9. Study on the cumulative impact of reclamation activities on ecosystem health in coastal waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Zheng, Wei; Li, Fen; Peng, Shitao; Ding, Dewen

    2016-02-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop feasible tools to investigate the cumulative impact of reclamations on coastal ecosystem health, so that the strategies of ecosystem-based management can be applied in the coastal zone. An indicator system and model were proposed to assess the cumulative impact synthetically. Two coastal water bodies, namely Laizhou Bay (LZB) and Tianjin coastal waters (TCW), in the Bohai Sea of China were studied and compared, each in a different phase of reclamations. Case studies showed that the indicator scores of coastal ecosystem health in LZB and TCW were 0.75 and 0.68 out of 1.0, respectively. It can be concluded that coastal reclamations have a historically cumulative effect on benthic environment, whose degree is larger than that on aquatic environment. The ecosystem-based management of coastal reclamations should emphasize the spatially and industrially intensive layout. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. An Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Cumulative Effects of Tidal Freshwater and Estuarine Ecosystem Restoration on Endangered Juvenile Salmon in the Columbia River: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Johnson, Gary E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Thom, Ronald M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Borde, Amy B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Woodley, Christa M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Weitkamp, Laurie A. [Marine Sciences lab., Sequim, WA (United States); Buenau, Kate E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kropp, Roy K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The listing of 13 salmon and steelhead stocks in the Columbia River basin (hereafter collectively referred to as “salmon”) under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended, has stimulated tidal wetland restoration in the lower 235 kilometers of the Columbia River and estuary for juvenile salmon habitat functions. The purpose of the research reported herein was to evaluate the effect on listed salmon of the restoration effort currently being conducted under the auspices of the federal Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP). Linking changes in the quality and landscape pattern of tidal wetlands in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) to salmon recovery is a complex problem because of the characteristics of the ecosystem, the salmon, the restoration actions, and available sampling technologies. Therefore, we designed an evidence-based approach to develop, synthesize, and evaluate information to determine early-stage (~10 years) outcomes of the CEERP. We developed an ecosystem conceptual model and from that, a primary hypothesis that habitat restoration activities in the LCRE have a cumulative beneficial effect on juvenile salmon. There are two necessary conditions of the hypothesis: • habitat-based indicators of ecosystem controlling factors, processes, and structures show positive effects from restoration actions, and • fish-based indicators of ecosystem processes and functions show positive effects from restoration actions and habitats undergoing restoration. Our evidence-based approach to evaluate the primary hypothesis incorporated seven lines of evidence, most of which are drawn from the LCRE. The lines of evidence are spatial and temporal synergies, cumulative net ecosystem improvement, estuary-wide meta-analysis, offsite benefits to juvenile salmon, landscape condition evaluation, and evidence-based scoring of global literature. The general methods we used to develop information for the lines of evidence included field

  11. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

  12. Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong Bo Shang; Hong S. He; Weimin Xi; Stephen R. Shifley; Brian J. Palik

    2012-01-01

    Public forest management requires consideration of numerous objectives including protecting ecosystem health, sustaining habitats for native communities, providing sustainable forest products, and providing noncommodity ecosystem services. It is difficult to evaluate the long-term, cumulative effects and tradeoffs these and other associated management objectives. To...

  13. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  14. An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

    1988-09-01

    Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

  15. Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1994-12-31

    This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

  16. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  17. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Borde, Amy B.; Roegner, G. C.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Dawley, Earl; Skalski, John R.; Vavrinec, John; Ebberts, Blaine D.

    2006-12-20

    This report is the second annual report of a six-year project to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration projects in the Columbia River Estuary, conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Marine Sciences Laboratory, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service Pt. Adams Biological Field Station, and the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce for the US Army Corps of Engineers. In 2005, baseline data were collected on two restoration sites and two associated reference sites in the Columbia River estuary. The sites represent two habitat types of the estuary--brackish marsh and freshwater swamp--that have sustained substantial losses in area and that may play important roles for salmonids. Baseline data collected included vegetation and elevation surveys, above and below-ground biomass, water depth and temperature, nutrient flux, fish species composition, and channel geometry. Following baseline data collection, three kinds of restoration actions for hydrological reconnection were implemented in several locations on the sites: tidegate replacements (2) at Vera Slough, near the city of Astoria in Oregon State, and culvert replacements (2) and dike breaches (3) at Kandoll Farm in the Grays River watershed in Washington State. Limited post-restoration data were collected: photo points, nutrient flux, water depth and temperature, and channel cross-sections. In subsequent work, this and additional post-restoration data will be used in conjunction with data from other sites to estimate net effects of hydrological reconnection restoration projects throughout the estuary. This project is establishing methods for evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects and a framework for assessing estuary-wide cumulative effects including a protocol manual for monitoring restoration and reference sites.

  18. Valued ecosystem components for watershed cumulative effects: an analysis of environmental impact assessments in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Murray A; Noble, Bram F; Dubé, Monique G

    2013-07-01

    The accumulating effects of human development are threatening water quality and availability. In recognition of the constraints to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) under traditional environmental impact assessment (EIA), there is an emerging body of research dedicated to watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA). To advance the science of WCEA, however, a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators is required that can be used at the watershed scale, to inform effects-based understanding of cumulative change, and at the project scale, to inform regulatory-based project based impact assessment and mitigation. A major challenge, however, is that it is not clear how such ecosystem components and indicators for WCEA can or should be developed. This study examined the use of aquatic ecosystem components and indicators in EIA practice in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada, to determine whether current practice at the project scale could be "scaled up" to support ecosystem component and indicator development for WCEA. The hierarchy of assessment components and indicators used in a sample of 35 environmental impact assessments was examined and the factors affecting aquatic ecosystem component selection and indicator use were identified. Results showed that public environmental impact statements are not necessarily publically accessible, thus limiting opportunities for data and information sharing from the project to the watershed scale. We also found no consistent terminology across the sample of impact statements, thus making comparison of assessment processes and results difficult. Regulatory compliance was found to be the dominant factor influencing the selection of ecosystem components and indicators for use in project assessment, rather than scientific reasoning, followed by the mandate of the responsible government agency for the assessment, public input to the assessment process, and preexisting water licensing arrangements external

  19. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  20. DNA barcodes for assessment of the biological integrity of aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water quality regulations and aquatic ecosystem monitoring increasingly rely on direct assessments of biological integrity. Because these aquatic “bioassessments” evaluate the incidence and abundance of sensitive aquatic species, they are able to measure cumulative ecosystem eff...

  1. Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Sarah C.; Pushchak, Ronald

    2008-01-01

    Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process

  2. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  3. Monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas: A generic framework for implementation of ecosystem based marine management and its application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Breen, Patricia; Stamford, Tammy

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces a framework for the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas (SMAs), which is currently being tested by nine European case studies. The framework provides guidance on the selection, mapping, and assessment of ecosystem components and human pressures, the evaluati...... on qualitative information are addressed. The lessons learned will provide a better insight into the full range of methods and approaches required to support the implementation of the ecosystem approach to marine spatial management in Europe and elsewhere.......This study introduces a framework for the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas (SMAs), which is currently being tested by nine European case studies. The framework provides guidance on the selection, mapping, and assessment of ecosystem components and human pressures, the evaluation...... of management effectiveness and potential adaptations to management. Moreover, it provides a structured approach with advice on spatially explicit tools for practical tasks like the assessment of cumulative impacts of human pressures or pressure-state relationships. The case studies revealed emerging challenges...

  4. Structure, functioning, and cumulative stressors of Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Sardà, Francisco

    2015-06-01

    Environmental stressors, such as climate fluctuations, and anthropogenic stressors, such as fishing, are of major concern for the management of deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-water habitats are limited by primary productivity and are mainly dependent on the vertical input of organic matter from the surface. Global change over the latest decades is imparting variations in primary productivity levels across oceans, and thus it has an impact on the amount of organic matter landing on the deep seafloor. In addition, anthropogenic impacts are now reaching the deep ocean. The Mediterranean Sea, the largest enclosed basin on the planet, is not an exception. However, ecosystem-level studies of response to varying food input and anthropogenic stressors on deep-sea ecosystems are still scant. We present here a comparative ecological network analysis of three food webs of the deep Mediterranean Sea, with contrasting trophic structure. After modelling the flows of these food webs with the Ecopath with Ecosim approach, we compared indicators of network structure and functioning. We then developed temporal dynamic simulations varying the organic matter input to evaluate its potential effect. Results show that, following the west-to-east gradient in the Mediterranean Sea of marine snow input, organic matter recycling increases, net production decreases to negative values and trophic organisation is overall reduced. The levels of food-web activity followed the gradient of organic matter availability at the seafloor, confirming that deep-water ecosystems directly depend on marine snow and are therefore influenced by variations of energy input, such as climate-driven changes. In addition, simulations of varying marine snow arrival at the seafloor, combined with the hypothesis of a possible fishery expansion on the lower continental slope in the western basin, evidence that the trawling fishery may pose an impact which could be an order of magnitude stronger than a climate

  5. Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extremely dry summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    The importance and mode of action of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. Summer 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, experienced unusually high air temperatures (fifth warmest over a 65 yr period) and record low precipitation (lowest over a 65 yr period). These abnormal conditions resulted in strongly reduced net Sphagnum CO2 uptake, but no effect neither on vascular plant development nor on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this arctic tundra ecosystem. Gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were both generally greater during most of this extreme summer. Cumulative ecosystem C uptake in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, showing the capacity of the ecosystem to compensate in its net ecosystem exchange (NEE) despite the impact on other functions and structure such as substantial necrosis of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem C uptake (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer, i.e the year directly following the extremely summer. In 2008, cumulative C uptake was ∼70% lower than prior years. This reduction cannot solely be attributed to mosses, which typically contribute with ∼40% - of the entire ecosystem C uptake. The minimum summer cumulative C uptake in 2008 suggests that the entire ecosystem experienced difficulty readjusting to more typical weather after experiencing exceptionally warm and dry conditions. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative C uptake occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggest a high resilience of this tundra ecosystem. Overall, these results show a highly complex response of the C uptake and its sub-components to atypically dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events still awaits further investigation.

  6. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2017-01-15

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  7. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  8. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  9. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

  10. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  11. Looking up, down, and sideways: Reconceiving cumulative effects assessment as a mindset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinclair, A. John, E-mail: jsincla@umanitoba.ca [Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada); Doelle, Meinhard, E-mail: mdoelle@dal.ca [Marine & Environmental Law Institute, Dalhousie University, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University, 6061 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada); Duinker, Peter N., E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca [School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 6100 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    Despite all the effort that has gone into defining, researching and establishing best practices for cumulative effects assessment (CEA), understanding remains weak and practice wanting. At one extreme of implementation, CEA can be described as merely an irritant to the completion of a project-specific environmental assessment (EA). At the other extreme, the conceptual view is that all effects in EA should be deemed cumulative unless demonstrated otherwise. Our purpose here is to consider how we might reconceive CEA as a mindset that is at the heart of absolutely every assessment of valued ecosystem component (VEC) to ensure that we understand the relative contributions of various stressors and can decide when cumulative effects may foreclose future activities due to impacts on VECs. Conceptually, we ground the CEA mindset in the context of three lenses that must all be functioning and working together for the mindset to be operative: a technical lens; a law and policy lens; and a participatory lens. Our arguments are based on a review of the CEA, strategic effects assessment (SEA) and regional effects assessment literatures, an examination and consideration of Canadian EA and SEA case practice, and our combined professional experiences. Through using the Bay of Fundy in Canada as a case example, we establish the concept of the CEA mindset and an approach for moving forward with implementation. - Highlights: • Conceptualization of cumulative effects assessment as a mindset. • Elaboration of technical, law and policy and participation lenses critical to CEA • Coordination and integration of cumulative effects for valued ecosystem components • Application in Bay of Fundy ecosystem and terrestrial watershed.

  12. The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Delgado, E A

    2015-12-15

    Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Evaluation of a post-analysis method for cumulative dose distribution in stereotactic body radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imae, Toshikazu; Takenaka, Shigeharu; Saotome, Naoya

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate a post-analysis method for cumulative dose distribution in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) using volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). VMAT is capable of acquiring respiratory signals derived from projection images and machine parameters based on machine logs during VMAT delivery. Dose distributions were reconstructed from the respiratory signals and machine parameters in the condition where respiratory signals were without division, divided into 4 and 10 phases. The dose distribution of each respiratory phase was calculated on the planned four-dimensional CT (4DCT). Summation of the dose distributions was carried out using deformable image registration (DIR), and cumulative dose distributions were compared with those of the corresponding plans. Without division, dose differences between cumulative distribution and plan were not significant. In the condition Where respiratory signals were divided, dose differences were observed over dose in cranial region and under dose in caudal region of planning target volume (PTV). Differences between 4 and 10 phases were not significant. The present method Was feasible for evaluating cumulative dose distribution in VMAT-SBRT using 4DCT and DIR. (author)

  14. Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

  15. Rising tides, cumulative impacts and cascading changes to estuarine ecosystem functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Meara, Theresa A; Hillman, Jenny R; Thrush, Simon F

    2017-08-31

    In coastal ecosystems, climate change affects multiple environmental factors, yet most predictive models are based on simple cause-and-effect relationships. Multiple stressor scenarios are difficult to predict because they can create a ripple effect through networked ecosystem functions. Estuarine ecosystem function relies on an interconnected network of physical and biological processes. Estuarine habitats play critical roles in service provision and represent global hotspots for organic matter processing, nutrient cycling and primary production. Within these systems, we predicted functional changes in the impacts of land-based stressors, mediated by changing light climate and sediment permeability. Our in-situ field experiment manipulated sea level, nutrient supply, and mud content. We used these stressors to determine how interacting environmental stressors influence ecosystem function and compared results with data collected along elevation gradients to substitute space for time. We show non-linear, multi-stressor effects deconstruct networks governing ecosystem function. Sea level rise altered nutrient processing and impacted broader estuarine services ameliorating nutrient and sediment pollution. Our experiment demonstrates how the relationships between nutrient processing and biological/physical controls degrade with environmental stress. Our results emphasise the importance of moving beyond simple physically-forced relationships to assess consequences of climate change in the context of ecosystem interactions and multiple stressors.

  16. Evaluating Threats in Multinational Marine Ecosystems: A Coast Salish First Nations and Tribal Perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph K Gaydos

    Full Text Available Despite the merit of managing natural resources on the scale of ecosystems, evaluating threats and managing risk in ecosystems that span multiple countries or jurisdictions can be challenging. This requires each government involved to consider actions in concert with actions being taken in other countries by co-managing entities. Multiple proposed fossil fuel-related and port development projects in the Salish Sea, a 16,925 km2 inland sea shared by Washington State (USA, British Columbia (Canada, and Indigenous Coast Salish governments, have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic and negatively impact natural resources. There is no legal mandate or management mechanism requiring a comprehensive review of the potential cumulative impacts of these development activities throughout the Salish Sea and across the international border. This project identifies ongoing and proposed energy-related development projects that will increase marine vessel traffic in the Salish Sea and evaluates the threats each project poses to natural resources important to the Coast Salish. While recognizing that Coast Salish traditions identify all species as important and connected, we used expert elicitation to identify 50 species upon which we could evaluate impact. These species were chosen because Coast Salish depend upon them heavily for harvest revenue or as a staple food source, they were particularly culturally or spiritually significant, or they were historically part of Coast Salish lifeways. We identified six development projects, each of which had three potential impacts (pressures associated with increased marine vessel traffic: oil spill, vessel noise and vessel strike. Projects varied in their potential for localized impacts (pressures including shoreline development, harbor oil spill, pipeline spill, coal dust accumulation and nearshore LNG explosion. Based on available published data, impact for each pressure/species interaction was rated as

  17. Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

    2015-06-01

    The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

  18. Cumulative Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Weber

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science. In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning. Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In a suite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show how transparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions of land use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystems for generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlight specific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, and integrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden and often politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes for identifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriate democratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of both residents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas to influence such change at the ecological and social level.

  19. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate ch...

  20. Evaluation of Environmental Quality Productive Ecosystem Guayas (Ecuador).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo, Wilson; Pardo, Francisco; Sanfeliu, Teófilo; Carrera, Gloria; Jordan, Manuel; Bech, Jaume; Roca, Núria

    2015-04-01

    Natural resources are deteriorating very rapidly in the Gulf of Guayaquil and the area of influence in the Guayas Basin due to human activity. Specific problems are generated by the mismanagement of the aquaculture industry affecting the traditional agricultural sectors: rice, banana, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and soya also studied, and by human and industrial settlements. The development of industrial activities such as aquaculture (shrimp building for shrimp farming in ponds) and agriculture, have increasingly contributed to the generation of waste, degrading and potentially toxic elements in high concentrations, which can have adverse effects on organisms in the ecosystems, in the health of the population and damage the ecological and environmental balance. The productive Guayas ecosystem, consists of three interrelated ecosystems, the Gulf of Guayaquil, the Guayas River estuary and the Guayas Basin buffer. The objective of this study was to evaluate the environmental quality of the productive Guayas ecosystem (Ecuador), through operational and specific objectives: 1) Draw up the transition coastal zone in the Gulf of Guayaquil, 2) Set temporal spatial variability of soil salinity in wetlands rice, Lower Guayas Basin, 3) evaluate the heavy metals in wetland rice in the Lower Basin of Guayas. The physical and chemical parameters of the soils have been studied. These are indicators of environmental quality. The multivariate statistical method showed the relations of similarities and dissimilarities between variables and parameter studies as stable. Moreover, the boundaries of coastal transition areas, temporal spatial variability of soil salinity and heavy metals in rice cultivation in the Lower Basin of Guayas were researched. The sequential studies included and discussed represent a broad framework of fundamental issues that has been valued as a basic component of the productive Guayas ecosystem. They are determinants of the environmental quality of the Guayas

  1. Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: Establishing common ground.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willsteed, Edward; Gill, Andrew B; Birchenough, Silvana N R; Jude, Simon

    2017-01-15

    Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

  4. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-07-14

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

  5. Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

  6. Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Brainard, Russell E

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

  7. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  8. Cumulative impacts from multiple human activities on seagrass meadows in eastern Mediterranean waters: the case of Saronikos Gulf (Aegean Sea, Greece).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodersen, Maren Myrto; Pantazi, Maria; Kokkali, Athina; Panayotidis, Panayotis; Gerakaris, Vasilis; Maina, Irida; Kavadas, Stefanos; Kaberi, Helen; Vassilopoulou, Vassiliki

    2017-12-05

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) addresses the fundamental need to account for cumulative impacts of human activities with the aim of sustainably delivering ecosystem services. The Saronikos Gulf, a large embayment of the Aegean Sea, provides a wide range of ecosystem services that are impacted by multiple human activities, deriving from the metropolitan area of Athens (situated at the northeast part of the Gulf). The anthropogenic impacts affect the status of several marine ecosystem components, e.g., seagrass meadows. Cymodocea nodosa meadows are only present at the most confined western part of the Gulf, whereas Posidonia oceanica meadows are mainly distributed in the inner and outer part of the Gulf. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impacts from multiple human activities on the seagrass meadows in the Gulf. The main results indicated that most impacted meadows are P. oceanica in the inner part of the Gulf, adjacent to the most urbanized coastal areas, and near port infrastructures. Land-based pollution, as well as physical damage and loss seem to be the main pressures exerted on the meadows. Understanding cumulative impacts is crucial for informing policy decisions under an EBM approach.

  9. [Forest ecosystem service and its evaluation in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jin; Lu, Shaowei; Yu, Xinxiao; Rao, Liangyi; Niu, Jianzhi; Xie, Yuanyuan; Zhag, Zhenming

    2005-08-01

    Facing the relative lag of forest ecosystem service and estimation in China, this paper proposed to quickly carry out the research on the evaluation of forest ecosystem service. On the basis of the classification of forest ecosystem types in China, the service of artificial and semi-artificial forest ecosystems was investigated, which was divided into eight types, i.e., timber and other products, recreation and eco-tourism, water storage, C fixation and O2 release, nutrient cycling, air quality purifying, erosion control, and habitat provision. According to the assessment index system for global ecosystem service proposed by Costanza et al., a series of assessment index system suitable for Chinese forest ecosystem service was set up, by which, the total value of forest ecosystem service in China was estimated to be 30 601.20 x 10(8) yuan x yr(-1), including direct and indirect economic value about 1 920.23 x 10(8) and 28 680.97 x 10(8) yuan x yr(-1), respectively. The indirect value was as 14.94 times as the direct one. The research aimed to bring natural resources and environment factors into the account system of national economy quickly, and to realize the green GDP at last, which would be helpful to realize sustainable development and environment protection.

  10. Evaluating the Governance Model of Hardware-Dependent Software Ecosystems – A Case Study of the Axis Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per; Matilda, Lantz; Oskar, Weijden; Munir, Hussan

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) softw...

  11. The need for simultaneous evaluation of ecosystem services and land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euliss, Ned H.; Smith, Loren M.; Liu, Shu-Guang; Feng, Min; Mushet, David M.; Auch, Roger F.; Loveland, Thomas R.

    2010-01-01

    We are living in a period of massive global change. This rate of change may be almost without precedent in geologic history (1). Even the most remote areas of the planet are influenced by human activities. Modern landscapes have been highly modified to accommodate a growing human population that the United Nations has forecast to peak at 9.1 billion by 2050. Over this past century, reliance on services from ecosystems has increased significantly and, over past decades, sustainability of our modern, intensively managed ecosystems has been a topic of serious international concern (1). Numerous papers addressing a particular land-use change effect on specific ecosystem services have recently been published. For example, there is currently great interest in increasing biofuel production to achieve energy inde- pendence goals and recent papers have independently focused attention on impacts of land-use change on single ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration (2) and many others (e.g., water availability, biodiversity, pollination). However, land-use change clearly affects myriad ecosystem services simultaneously. Hence, a broader perspective and context is needed to evaluate and understand interrelated affects on multiple ecosystem services, especially as we strive for the goal of sustainably managing global ecosystems. Similarly, land uses affect ecosystem services synergistically; single land-use evaluations may be misleading because the overall impact on an ecosystem is not evaluated. A more holistic approach would provide a means and framework to characterize how land-use change affects provisioning of goods and services of complete ecosystems.

  12. Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, J David; McIntyre, Peter B; Smith, Sigrid D P; Halpern, Benjamin S; Boyer, Gregory L; Buchsbaum, Andy; Burton, G A; Campbell, Linda M; Chadderton, W Lindsay; Ciborowski, Jan J H; Doran, Patrick J; Eder, Tim; Infante, Dana M; Johnson, Lucinda B; Joseph, Christine A; Marino, Adrienne L; Prusevich, Alexander; Read, Jennifer G; Rose, Joan B; Rutherford, Edward S; Sowa, Scott P; Steinman, Alan D

    2013-01-02

    With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments.

  13. Emergy evaluation of benthic ecosystems influenced by upwelling in northern Chile: Contributions of the ecosystems to the regional economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emergy evaluations of three benthic ecosystem networks found in Mejillones, Antofagasta and Tongoy Bays, located on the coast of northern Chile, were carried out with the intent of documenting the contributions of these coastal ecosystems to the economy. The productivity of these...

  14. Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, John B

    2010-01-01

    Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

  15. [Ecosystem services evaluation based on geographic information system and remote sensing technology: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wen-Jie; Zhang, Shi-Huang; Wang, Hui-Min

    2011-12-01

    Ecosystem services evaluation is a hot topic in current ecosystem management, and has a close link with human beings welfare. This paper summarized the research progress on the evaluation of ecosystem services based on geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, which could be reduced to the following three characters, i. e., ecological economics theory is widely applied as a key method in quantifying ecosystem services, GIS and RS technology play a key role in multi-source data acquisition, spatiotemporal analysis, and integrated platform, and ecosystem mechanism model becomes a powerful tool for understanding the relationships between natural phenomena and human activities. Aiming at the present research status and its inadequacies, this paper put forward an "Assembly Line" framework, which was a distributed one with scalable characteristics, and discussed the future development trend of the integration research on ecosystem services evaluation based on GIS and RS technologies.

  16. [Evaluation of economic forest ecosystem services in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Lu, Shao-Wei

    2009-02-01

    This paper quantitatively evaluated the economic forest ecosystem services in the provinces of China in 2003, based on the long-term and continuous observations of economic forest ecosystems in this country, the sixth China national forest resources inventory data, and the price parameter data from the authorities in the world, and by applying the law of market value, the method of substitution of the expenses, and the law of the shadow project. The results showed that in 2003, the total value of economic forest ecosystem services in China was 11763.39 x 10(8) yuan, and the total value of the products from economic forests occupied 19.3% of the total ecosystem services value, which indicated that the economic forests not only provided society direct products, but also exhibited enormous eco-economic value. The service value of the functions of economic forests was in the order of water storage > C fixation and O2 release > biodiversity conservation > erosion control > air quality purification > nutrient cycle. The spatial pattern of economic forest ecosystem services in the provinces of China had the same trend with the spatial distribution of water and heat resources and biodiversity. To understand the differences of economic forest ecosystem services in the provinces of China was of significance in alternating the irrational arrangement of our present forestry production, diminishing the abuses of forest management, and establishing high grade, high efficient, and modernized economic forests.

  17. Structure, functioning, and cumulative stressors of Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Tecchio, S.; Coll, Marta; Sarda, F.

    2015-01-01

    Environmental stressors, such as climate fluctuations, and anthropogenic stressors, such as fishing, are of major concern for the management of deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-water habitats are limited by primary productivity and are mainly dependent on the vertical input of organic matter from the surface. Global change over the latest decades is imparting variations in primary productivity levels across oceans, and thus it has an impact on the amount of organic matter landing on the deep seafloo...

  18. Evaluating international development investments based on ecosystem services impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fremier, A. K.; Brauman, K. A.; Mulligan, M.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Gordon, L.; Luedeling, E.; Jones, S. K.; DeClerck, F.

    2016-12-01

    Engineered water-control structures to supply water for agriculture are frequently funded by international development to an effort to improve human wellbeing. Dams, reservoirs, and other forms of water control frequently have negative impacts on other water users; however, their sustainability in the face of climate change and evolving watershed processes have been called into question. Increasingly, planning for and evaluation of investments in water control require integration of these larger scale impacts and dependencies. Ecosystem service approaches can use local to regional scale knowledge to integrate a broader scope of project impacts by quantifying trade-offs in multiple services across proposed development interventions and future scenarios (economic, climate, demographic). Here, we illustrate the role an ecosystem service approach can play in investment decision making to evaluate the impact of small reservoirs on human wellbeing in the Upper Volta Basin of West Africa. Our project has four components: (1) design of a spatially explicit regional-level social-ecological characterization; (2) construction of future scenario analyses for rainfed and irrigated production system interventions; (3) co-design and co-development of benefit sharing mechanisms at the reservoir catchment level and enhancing institutional capacity to implement these mechanisms through training, professional development and targeting tools; and (4) intervention decision analysis to identify benefits, costs and risks associated with decision options. We illustrate how this approach highlights different outcomes than standard cost-benefit analysis focused narrowly on the single project. Anticipated outcomes are development of ecosystem services-based methods for more equitably and sustainably evaluating development interventions and identifying management approaches to water-impoundment structures that promote a range of ecosystem services to provide food security to a broader

  19. Evaluating ecosystem services provided by non-native species: an experimental test in California grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Claudia; Hallett, Lauren M; Harpole, W Stanley; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-01-01

    The concept of ecosystem services--the benefits that nature provides to human's society--has gained increasing attention over the past decade. Increasing global abiotic and biotic change, including species invasions, is threatening the secure delivery of these ecosystem services. Efficient evaluation methods of ecosystem services are urgently needed to improve our ability to determine management strategies and restoration goals in face of these new emerging ecosystems. Considering a range of multiple ecosystem functions may be a useful way to determine such strategies. We tested this framework experimentally in California grasslands, where large shifts in species composition have occurred since the late 1700's. We compared a suite of ecosystem functions within one historic native and two non-native species assemblages under different grazing intensities to address how different species assemblages vary in provisioning, regulatory and supporting ecosystem services. Forage production was reduced in one non-native assemblage (medusahead). Cultural ecosystem services, such as native species diversity, were inherently lower in both non-native assemblages, whereas most other services were maintained across grazing intensities. All systems provided similar ecosystem services under the highest grazing intensity treatment, which simulated unsustainable grazing intensity. We suggest that applying a more comprehensive ecosystem framework that considers multiple ecosystem services to evaluate new emerging ecosystems is a valuable tool to determine management goals and how to intervene in a changing ecosystem.

  20. Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friesen, B.

    2001-01-01

    The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs

  1. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystems store vast quantities of wealth, but difficulties measuring wealth held in ecosystems prevent its inclusion in accounting systems. Ecosystem-based management endeavors to manage ecosystems holistically. However, ecosystem-based management lacks headline indicators to evaluate performance. We unify the inclusive wealth and ecosystem-based management paradigms, allowing apples-to-apples comparisons between the wealth of the ecosystem and other forms of wealth, while providing a headl...

  2. Evaluation of cumulative PCB exposure estimated by a job exposure matrix versus PCB serum concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruder, Avima M.; Succop, Paul; Waters, Martha A.

    2015-01-01

    Although polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been banned in many countries for more than three decades, exposures to PCBs continue to be of concern due to their long half-lives and carcinogenic effects. In National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studies, we are using semiquantitative plant-specific job exposure matrices (JEMs) to estimate historical PCB exposures for workers (n=24,865) exposed to PCBs from 1938 to 1978 at three capacitor manufacturing plants. A subcohort of these workers (n=410) employed in two of these plants had serum PCB concentrations measured at up to four times between 1976 and 1989. Our objectives were to evaluate the strength of association between an individual worker’s measured serum PCB levels and the same worker’s cumulative exposure estimated through 1977 with the (1) JEM and (2) duration of employment, and to calculate the explained variance the JEM provides for serum PCB levels using (3) simple linear regression. Consistent strong and statistically significant associations were observed between the cumulative exposures estimated with the JEM and serum PCB concentrations for all years. The strength of association between duration of employment and serum PCBs was good for highly chlorinated (Aroclor 1254/HPCB) but not less chlorinated (Aroclor 1242/LPCB) PCBs. In the simple regression models, cumulative occupational exposure estimated using the JEMs explained 14–24 % of the variance of the Aroclor 1242/LPCB and 22–39 % for Aroclor 1254/HPCB serum concentrations. We regard the cumulative exposure estimated with the JEM as a better estimate of PCB body burdens than serum concentrations quantified as Aroclor 1242/LPCB and Aroclor 1254/HPCB. PMID:23475397

  3. Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xiongzhi; Hong, Huasheng; Charles, Anthony T

    2004-07-01

    This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.

  4. Cumulative effects assessment in Canada: an agenda for action and research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, E.B.; Chan, Y.-H.; Peterson, N.M.; Constable, G.A.; Caton, R.B.; Davis, C.S.; Wallace, R.R.; Yarranton, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    This review of cumulative environmental effects assessment in Canada identified 13 sets of issues that are considered to be of particular significance to Canadians over the next decade or two. They are: long-range transport of air pollutants; urban air quality and airshed saturation, mobilization of persistent or bioaccumulated substances, climatic modification, land occupation by man-made features, habitat alienation and fragmentation, soil losses, effects of agricultural chemicals, groundwater supply reduction and contamination, increased sediment, chemical and thermal loading of freshwater and marine habitats, accelerating rates of renewable resource harvesting, and long-term containment and disposal of toxic wastes. There is a diverse set of examples in which cumulative effects have been recognized and brought under control and management, and the scientific and institutional factors that promoted a successful approach are summarized. It was confirmed that there are well-defined limitations in the degree to which project referrals and project-specific environmental impact assessments can be adapted to manage cumulative effects successfully. In general, this review confirmed the hypothesis that current approaches for both scientific analyses and institutional arrangements to manage cumulative effects remain inadequately developed in Canada. To address this weakness, action is required on improving links between ecosystems, research, and management. Recommendations are made and a research agenda is presented. 171 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. Analysis of LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites using novel cumulative rheological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracalik, Milan

    2017-05-01

    Polymer nanocomposites exhibit complex rheological behaviour due to physical and also possibly chemical interactions between individual phases. Up to now, rheology of dispersive polymer systems has been usually described by evaluation of viscosity curve (shear thinning phenomenon), storage modulus curve (formation of secondary plateau) or plotting information about dumping behaviour (e.g. Van Gurp-Palmen-plot, comparison of loss factor tan δ). On the contrary to evaluation of damping behaviour, values of cot δ were calculated and called as "storage factor", analogically to loss factor. Then values of storage factor were integrated over specific frequency range and called as "cumulative storage factor". In this contribution, LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites with different dispersion grades (physical networks) have been prepared and characterized by both conventional as well as novel analysis approach. Next to cumulative storage factor, further cumulative rheological parameters like cumulative complex viscosity, cumulative complex modulus or cumulative storage modulus have been introduced.

  6. Industrial and ecological cumulative exergy consumption of the United States via the 1997 input-output benchmark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukidwe, Nandan U.; Bakshi, Bhavik R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a thermodynamic input-output (TIO) model of the 1997 United States economy that accounts for the flow of cumulative exergy in the 488-sector benchmark economic input-output model in two different ways. Industrial cumulative exergy consumption (ICEC) captures the exergy of all natural resources consumed directly and indirectly by each economic sector, while ecological cumulative exergy consumption (ECEC) also accounts for the exergy consumed in ecological systems for producing each natural resource. Information about exergy consumed in nature is obtained from the thermodynamics of biogeochemical cycles. As used in this work, ECEC is analogous to the concept of emergy, but does not rely on any of its controversial claims. The TIO model can also account for emissions from each sector and their impact and the role of labor. The use of consistent exergetic units permits the combination of various streams to define aggregate metrics that may provide insight into aspects related to the impact of economic sectors on the environment. Accounting for the contribution of natural capital by ECEC has been claimed to permit better representation of the quality of ecosystem goods and services than ICEC. The results of this work are expected to permit evaluation of these claims. If validated, this work is expected to lay the foundation for thermodynamic life cycle assessment, particularly of emerging technologies and with limited information

  7. A Evaluation of Effects on a Ecosystem and Countermeasures in accordance with Climate Change I- Forest Ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Yong Ha; Jeon, Seong Woo; Choi, Jae Yong; Jeong Hwi Chol; Kim, Jeong Won [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    Climate change requests a lot of changes in the existing life style and economic developing system, which form the foundation of modern culture and economic/social development. Especially, in Korea, whose economic basis is mainly dependent on fossil energy, it is expected that the change of policies on climate change have a bigger effect on many-sided fields including ecosystem than other nations. Therefore, even though all of the Government, academic organizations, and private organizations have made efforts to estimate effects of climate change and to prepare countermeasures, the focus has been on forecast and evaluation of the mutual effect between industrial/economic activities and climate change. Forecast of ecosystem change and preservation of ecosystem according to climate change is another political field to promote. However, such a field has not been promoted systematically in Korea. The Institute recognizing such a current state, as part of the policy on ecosystem preservation according to climate change, forecasted the effect on forest ecosystem, analyzed the economic effects according to the effect of forest ecosystem, and started this study to prepare the countermeasures of the Government-level. This study collected and analyzed international trend and necessary data to develop the model, which would be executed in future, and then suggested the selection and development of the model fitted to Korea. There could be differences between Institute's view and the Government/other institutes. However, such differences are caused by the different methods in capturing the effects of various ecosystems. Such various approaching methods will be of great help to estimate the correct effects and to establish the Government's policies as base data. I hope that this study cannot only be applied to analyze the effects of forest ecosystem according to climate change but contribute to enlarging the understanding of various problems according to climate

  8. Stochastic evaluation of the dynamic response and the cumulative damage of nuclear power plant piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Kohei; Aoki, Shigeru; Hanaoka, Masaaki

    1981-01-01

    This report deals with a fundamental study concerning an evaluation of uncertainties of the nuclear piping response and cumulative damage under excess-earthquake loadings. The main purposes of this study cover following several problems. (1) Experimental estimation analysis of the uncertainties concerning the dynamic response and the cumulative failure by using piping test model. (2) Numerical simulation analysis by Monte Carlo method under the assumption that relation between restoring force and deformation is characterized by perfectly elasto-plastic one. (Checking the mathematical model.) (3) Development of the conventional uncertainty estimating method by introducing a perturbation technique based on an appropriate equivalently linearized approach. (Checking the estimation technique.) (4) An application of this method to more realistical cases. Through above mentioned procedures some important results are obtained as follows; First, fundamental statistical properties of the natural frequencies and the number of cycle to failure crack initiation are evaluated. Second, the effect of the frequency fluctuation and the yielding fluctuation are estimated and examined through Monte Carlo simulation technique. It has become clear that the yielding fluctuation gives significant effect on the piping power response up to its failure initiation. Finally some results through proposed perturbation technique are discussed. Statistical properties estimated coincide fairly well with those through numerical simulation. (author)

  9. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  10. Evaluation of cumulative effects of MR imaging on pacemaker systems at 1.5 Tesla.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naehle, Claas P; Zeijlemaker, Volkert; Thomas, Daniel; Meyer, Carsten; Strach, Katharina; Fimmers, Rolf; Schild, Hans; Sommer, Torsten

    2009-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate possible cumulative effects of repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations on pacemaker systems in patients with cardiac pacemakers. The records of pacemaker patients who underwent repetitive MRI examinations in our institution were reviewed to identify patients who underwent two or more MRI examinations at 1.5T of any anatomical region. Using these criteria, a total of 47 patients who underwent a total 171 MRI examinations were identified and included in this study. Institutional Review Board approval for all pacemaker investigations was obtained. Written informed consent was obtained from all patients. Pacemakers were interrogated immediately before and after MR imaging, and after 3 months, including measurement of pacing capture threshold (PCT), lead impedance (LI), and battery voltage (BV). PCT, LI, and BV were analyzed for changes dependant on the number of MRI exams performed. Mean changes over time and changes between first and last pacemaker interrogation of PCT, LI, and BV were calculated. A statistically significant (P < 0.05), but clinically irrelevant trend for decrease in PCT and BV was found. No significant or clinically relevant changes in LI were observed. In this first study, no clinically relevant, cumulative changes in PCT, LI, or BV could be detected in PM patients who underwent two or more MRI examinations. However, a careful benefit/risk evaluation, among other MRI- and pacemaker-related safety precautions, remains mandatory, as clinically relevant alterations to the PM system cannot be excluded by all means.

  11. Cumulated Ambulation Score to evaluate mobility is feasible in geriatric patients and in patients with hip fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Tange; Jakobsen, Thomas Linding; Nielsen, Jesper Westphal

    2012-01-01

    Regaining basic mobility independence is considered important for elderly hospitalised patients. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS) is a valid tool for evaluating these patients' basic mobility (getting in and out of bed, sit-to-stand from a chair and walking) in orthopaedic wards, and its use ...... is recommended in Denmark for patients with hip fracture. The aims of the present study were to evaluate the feasibility of the CAS in a geriatric ward and to describe its use after hip fracture in Denmark....

  12. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A

    2015-04-01

    Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Bibliography of environmental research: Ecosystems Department, 1952--1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helbling, J.L.

    1975-12-01

    This 3rd biennial edition of the Cumulative Bibliography of Environmental Research was prepared as a single source of information on the publication history of the Ecosystems Department, from its genesis in the Biology Operation of General Electric, to its present status as an independent department of the Pacific Northwest Laboratories of Battelle Memorial Institute

  14. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  15. Cumulative effect assessment in Canada: a regional framework for aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dube, Monique G.

    2003-01-01

    Sustainable development of the aquatic environment depends upon routine and defensible cumulative effects assessment (CEA). CEA is the process of predicting the consequences of development relative to an assessment of existing environmental quality. Theoretically, it provides an on-going mechanism to evaluate if levels of development exceed the environment's assimilative capacity; i.e., its ability to sustain itself. In practice, the link between CEA and sustainable development has not been realized because CEA concepts and methods have developed along two dichotomous tracks. One track views CEA as an extension of the environmental assessment (EA) process for project developments. Under this track, stressor-based (S-B) methods have been developed where the emphasis is on local, project-related stressors, their link with aquatic indicators, and the potential for environmental effects through stressor-indicator interactions. S-B methods focus on the proposed development and prediction of project-related effects. They lack a mechanism to quantify existing aquatic quality especially at scales broader than an isolated development. This limitation results in the prediction of potential effects relative to a poorly defined baseline state. The other track views CEA as a broader, regional assessment tool where effects-based (E-B) methods specialize in quantification of existing aquatic effects over broad spatial scales. However, the predictive capabilities of E-B methods are limited because they are retrospective, i.e., the stressor causing the effect is identified after the effect has been measured. When used in isolation, S-B and E-B methods do not address CEA in the context necessary for sustainable development. However, if the strengths of these approaches were integrated into a holistic framework for CEA, an operational mechanism would exist to better monitor and assess sustainable development of our aquatic resources. This paper reviews the existing conceptual basis

  16. [Evaluation of ecosystem service and emergy of Wanshan Waters in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Chuan-xin; Chen, Pi-mao; Zhang, An-kai; Yuan, Hua; Li, Guo-ying; Shu, Li-ming; Zhou, Yan-bo; Li, Xiao-guo

    2015-06-01

    The method for monetary value and emergy value analysis of ecosystem service was used in this paper to analyze the change in value of marine ecosystem service of Wanshan District, Zhuhai from 2007 to 2012. The result showed that the monetary value and emergy value of marine ecosystem service of Wanshan District, Zhuhai rose to 11512840000 yuan and 1.97 x 10(22) sej from 7721630000 yuan and 1.04 x 10(22) sej, respectively. Both monetary value and emergy value could forecast the change in the value of marine ecosystem service, but they reflected different value structures and ecological energy, which could be used to more objectively evaluate the ecosystem service. Ecological civilization development, as an inherent driving force to impel the development of marine ecosystem service structure, was important for rational exploitation of marine resources and optimization of marine ecosystem service.

  17. Earth Observation Data for Mapping and Evaluation of Ecosystem Services to Improve Human Livelihoods and Conserve Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Aurelie C.; Bhagabati, Nirmal

    2010-12-01

    Mapping and evaluating ecosystem services is of increasing concern and urgency for conservation organizations such as WWF. Coupling biodiversity assessments with ecosystem services e.g., carbon sequestration, water regulation, sediment reduction, is an effective way to visualize additional financial and human benefits of conservation for decision makers. WWF is eager to apply various Earth Observation data to conservation applications for consistent mapping and monitoring of natural ecosystems and the potential impacts of their loss on humans and wildlife alike. Such examples include forest carbon mapping, integrated evaluation of ecosystem services (via the InVEST tool) and bundling endangered Tiger habitat with various ecosystem services for bundled benefits.

  18. The snow vole (Chionomys nivalis) as an appropriate environmental bioindicator in alpine ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcheva, Roumiana; Beltcheva, Michaela; Chassovnikarova, Tsenka

    2008-01-01

    The snow vole (Chionomys nivalis, Martins, 1842) is a common species in the Bulgarian high mountains. Its populations are distributed in different altitudes, regions, and keep stable population density. This is the reason the species has been tested as a bioindicator for environmental quality in alpine ecosystems. The cumulative environmental impact in snow vole populations was evaluated using cytogenetical, hematological, ecotoxicological, radiometrical, ecophysiological, and morphophysiological indices. Standard karyotype, chromosomal aberrations, and other diversions have been observed. These investigations reveal that the snow vole is one of the most appropriate species that can be used as a biomonitor for environmental assessment in mountain areas

  19. The snow vole (Chionomys nivalis) as an appropriate environmental bioindicator in alpine ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Metcheva, Roumiana [Institute of Zoology, Bulgarian Academy of Science, 1, Tzar Osvoboditel blvd., Sofia, 1000 Bulgaria (Bulgaria)], E-mail: rummech@yahoo.com; Beltcheva, Michaela; Chassovnikarova, Tsenka [Institute of Zoology, Bulgarian Academy of Science, 1, Tzar Osvoboditel blvd., Sofia, 1000 Bulgaria (Bulgaria)

    2008-03-01

    The snow vole (Chionomys nivalis, Martins, 1842) is a common species in the Bulgarian high mountains. Its populations are distributed in different altitudes, regions, and keep stable population density. This is the reason the species has been tested as a bioindicator for environmental quality in alpine ecosystems. The cumulative environmental impact in snow vole populations was evaluated using cytogenetical, hematological, ecotoxicological, radiometrical, ecophysiological, and morphophysiological indices. Standard karyotype, chromosomal aberrations, and other diversions have been observed. These investigations reveal that the snow vole is one of the most appropriate species that can be used as a biomonitor for environmental assessment in mountain areas.

  20. Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Österblom, H.; Gårdmark, A.; Bergström, L.

    2010-01-01

    Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem...... stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub...

  1. [Evaluation of ecosystem resilience in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway based on GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jiang-bo; Zhao, Zhi-qiang; Li, Shuang-cheng

    2008-11-01

    Based on GIS technique and the methods of mean-squared deviation weight decision and catastrophe progression, a more clear definition and associated evaluation for ecosystem resilience were given, with a case study in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway by using the indices of plant community coverage, species diversity, and biomass. It was shown that the areas with high ecosystem resilience were mainly located in the Qilian Mountain meadow grassland, Huangshui Valley needle-leaved and deciduous broad-leaved forest, and south Tanggula Mountain kobresia swamp meadow, while those with the lowest resilience were in the central part of Qaidam Basin, and the Kunlun Mountains. Most areas in the regions had higher or medium ecosystem resilience, with a trend of that in the south of Kunlun Mountains, the resilience in the north of the railway was lower, while in the east of Qaidam Basin (especially in the Qinghai Lake area), the resilience was lower in the south than in the north of the railway. Through the evaluation of ecosystem resilience, the key issues in the process of ecological resilience could be found, and corresponding effective measures would be pointed out to manage alpine ecosystems. Moreover, combining with the evaluation of vulnerability, scientific basis for regional development could be provided to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of human activities on eco-environment.

  2. Bridging the gap between policy and science in assessing the health status of marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel Borja

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human activities, both established and emerging, increasingly affect the provision of marine ecosystem services that deliver societal and economic benefits. Monitoring the status of marine ecosystems and determining how human activities change their capacity to sustain benefits for society requires an evidence-based Integrated Ecosystem Assessment approach that incorporates knowledge of ecosystem functioning and services. Although there are diverse methods to assess the status of individual ecosystem components, none assesses the health of marine ecosystems holistically, integrating information from multiple ecosystem components. Similarly, while acknowledging the availability of several methods to measure single pressures and assess their impacts, evaluation of cumulative effects of multiple pressures remains scarce. Therefore, an integrative assessment requires us to first understand the response of marine ecosystems to human activities and their pressures and then develop innovative, cost-effective monitoring tools that enable collection of data to assess the health status of large marine areas. Conceptually, combining this knowledge of effective monitoring methods with cost-benefit analyses will help identify appropriate management measures to improve environmental status economically and efficiently. The European project DEVOTES (DEVelopment Of innovative Tools for understanding marine biodiversity and assessing good Environmental Status specifically addressed these topics in order to support policy makers and managers in implementing the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Here, we synthesize our main innovative findings, placing these within the context of recent wider research, and identifying gaps and the major future challenges.

  3. Science and societal partnerships to address cumulative impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn J Lundquist

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritisation exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social-scientific backgrounds ranked 48 statements of research priorities. At a follow up workshop, participants discussed five over-arching themes based on survey results. These themes were used to develop mechanisms to increase the relevance and efficiency of scientific research while acknowledging socio-economic and political drivers of research agendas in New Zealand’s ocean ecosystems. Overarching messages included the need to: 1 determine the conditions under which ‘surprises’ (sudden and substantive undesirable changes are likely to occur and the socio-ecological implications of such changes; 2 develop methodologies to reveal the complex and cumulative effects of change in marine systems, and their implications for resource use, stewardship, and restoration; 3 assess potential solutions to management issues that balance long-term and short-term benefits and encompass societal engagement in decision-making; 4 establish effective and appropriately resourced institutional networks to foster collaborative, solution-focused marine science; and 5 establish cross-disciplinary dialogues to translate diverse scientific and social-scientific knowledge into innovative regulatory, social and economic practice. In the face of multiple uses and cumulative stressors, ocean management frameworks must be adapted to build a collaborative framework across science, governance and society that can help stakeholders navigate uncertainties and socio-ecological surprises.

  4. The cumulative ash curve: a best tool to evaluate complete mill performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhare, Suresh D; Inamdar, Aashitosh A

    2014-04-01

    Slick test is carried out by a flour miller to qualitatively segregate the flour from different streams in a roller flour mill. This test is done manually by pressing flour samples on tray using thin bladed paddle (the slick) and inspecting color or dress of the sample. However, the test is subjective and totally depends on human judgment. Cumulative ash curve relates to cumulative flour ash content and cumulative flour yield, which could help a flour miller to be more precise while selecting flour streams for different needs. In this study, cleaning and conditioning of wheat was carried out in the pilot plant of International School of Milling Technology (ISMT). Further, roller flour milling of wheat was done. Flour from different streams (four breaks, five reductions) was collected. Each flour stream was analyzed for ash content using standard AACC methods. The analytical values of ash content were used to plot the cumulative ash curve. It was found that ash content increased in the break passages from first to last break, with exception of first break (ash content 0.71%). An increase in percentage of ash was observed in the reduction passages (C1 to C5), however, C3 ash (0.76%) was slightly higher than that of C4 (0.65%). Higher yield of flour with minimum ash content was obtained from the front reduction passages C1 and C2; whereas, the break passages and the tail end reduction passages produce less flour with higher ash content.

  5. Key insights for the future of urban ecosystem services research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peleg Kremer

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the dynamics of urban ecosystem services is a necessary requirement for adequate planning, management, and governance of urban green infrastructure. Through the three-year Urban Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (URBES research project, we conducted case study and comparative research on urban biodiversity and ecosystem services across seven cities in Europe and the United States. Reviewing > 50 peer-reviewed publications from the project, we present and discuss seven key insights that reflect cumulative findings from the project as well as the state-of-the-art knowledge in urban ecosystem services research. The insights from our review indicate that cross-sectoral, multiscale, interdisciplinary research is beginning to provide a solid scientific foundation for applying the ecosystem services framework in urban areas and land management. Our review offers a foundation for seeking novel, nature-based solutions to emerging urban challenges such as wicked environmental change issues.

  6. Cumulative effective dose associated with radiography and CT of adolescents with spinal injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemburg, Stefan P; Peters, Soeren A; Roggenland, Daniela; Nicolas, Volkmar; Heyer, Christoph M

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the quantity and distribution of cumulative effective doses in diagnostic imaging of adolescents with spinal injuries. At a level 1 trauma center from July 2003 through June 2009, imaging procedures during initial evaluation and hospitalization and after discharge of all patients 10-20 years old with spinal fractures were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative effective doses for all imaging studies were calculated, and the doses to patients with spinal injuries who had multiple traumatic injuries were compared with the doses to patients with spinal injuries but without multiple injuries. The significance level was set at 5%. Imaging studies of 72 patients (32 with multiple injuries; average age, 17.5 years) entailed a median cumulative effective dose of 18.89 mSv. Patients with multiple injuries had a significantly higher total cumulative effective dose (29.70 versus 10.86 mSv, p cumulative effective dose to multiple injury patients during the initial evaluation (18.39 versus 2.83 mSv, p cumulative effective dose. Adolescents with spinal injuries receive a cumulative effective dose equal to that of adult trauma patients and nearly three times that of pediatric trauma patients. Areas of focus in lowering cumulative effective dose should be appropriate initial estimation of trauma severity and careful selection of CT scan parameters.

  7. Evaluating natural flood management measures using an ecosystem based adaptation framework: a meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is projected to alter river flows and the magnitude/frequency characteristics of floods and droughts. As a result flood risk is expected to increase with environmental, social and economic impacts. Traditionally flood risk management has been heavily relying on engineering measures, however with climate change their capacity to provide protection is expected to decrease. Ecosystem-based adaptation highlights the interdependence of human and natural systems, and the potential to buffer the impacts of climate change by maintaining functioning ecosystems that continue to provide multiple societal benefits. Natural flood management measures have the potential to provide a greater adaptive capacity to negate the impacts of climate change and provide ancillary benefits. To understand the impacts of different NFM measures on ecosystem services a meta-analysis was undertaken. Twenty five studies from across the world were pulled together to assess their effectiveness on reducing the flood risk but also on other ecosystems services as defined by the UK National Ecosystem Assessment, which distinguishes between provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services. Four categories of NFM measures were considered: (i) afforestation measures, (ii) drainage and blocking the drains, (iii) wetland restoration and (iv) combined measures. Woodland expansion measures provide significant benefits for flood protection more pronounced for low magnitude events, but also for other services such as carbon sequestration and water quality. These measures however will come at a cost for livestock and crop provisioning services as a result of land use changes. Drainage operations and blocking the drains have mixed impacts on carbon sequestration and water quality depending on soil type, landscape settings and local characteristics. Wetland and floodplain restoration measures have generally a few disbenefits and provide improvements for regulating and supporting services

  8. [Connotation characterization and evaluation of ecological well-being based on ecosystem service theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Zheng; Zou, Xin- Qing

    2016-04-22

    China is advocating ecological civilization construction nowadays. Further researches on the relation between ecosystem service and humanity well-being are full of theoretical and practical significance. Combining related researches, this paper defined the concept and connotation of ecological well-being based on ecosystem service theory. Referencing theory of national economic accounting and relative researches, the evaluation indicators of ecological well-being supply and consumption were established. The quantitative characterization and evaluation method of red line of regional ecological well-being was proposed on the basis of location quotient. Then the evaluation of ecological well-being in mainland China in 2012 was set as an example for empirical research. The results showed that the net product values of 6 ecosystems, includingcultivated land, forest land, grassland, wetland, water area and unused land, were respectively 1481.925, 8194.806, 4176.277, 4245.760, 3177.084 and 133.762 billion CNY. Spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem net product in different provinces was distinct. Ecological well-being per capita of forest land, grassland, wetland, cultivated land and unused land in eastern and middle provinces were under the red line and less than the national average. The spatial distribution of 9 kinds of ecological well-being per capita split at Hu's line with high value in northwest and low value in southeast, and was aggravated by differences in density of population and land resources gift.

  9. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services

  11. An Architecture Framework for Orchestrating Context-Aware IT Ecosystems: A Case Study for Quantitative Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soojin Park

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available With the emergence of various forms of smart devices and new paradigms such as the Internet of Things (IoT concept, the IT (Information Technology service areas are expanding explosively compared to the provision of services by single systems. A new system operation concept that has emerged in accordance with such technical trends is the IT ecosystem. The IT ecosystem can be considered a special type of system of systems in which multiple systems with various degrees of autonomy achieve common goals while adapting to the given environment. The single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem adapt autonomously to the current situation based on collected data from sensors. Furthermore, to maintain the services supported by the whole IT ecosystem sustainably, the configuration of single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem also changes appropriately in accordance with the changed situation. In order to support the IT ecosystem, this paper proposes an architecture framework that supports dynamic configuration changes to achieve the goal of the whole IT ecosystem, while ensuring the autonomy of single systems through the collection of data from sensors so as to recognize the situational context of individual participating systems. For the feasibility evaluation of the proposed framework, a simulated example of an IT ecosystem for unmanned forest management was constructed, and the quantitative evaluation results are discussed in terms of the extent to which the proposed architecture framework can continuously provide sustainable services in response to diverse environmental context changes.

  12. Salvage logging following fires can minimize boreal caribou habitat loss while maintaining forest quotas: An example of compensatory cumulative effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguin, Julien; McIntire, Eliot J B; Raulier, Frédéric

    2015-11-01

    Protected area networks are the dominant conservation approach that is used worldwide for protecting biodiversity. Conservation planning in managed forests, however, presents challenges when endangered species use old-growth forests targeted by the forest industry for timber supply. In many ecosystems, this challenge is further complicated by the occurrence of natural disturbance events that disrupt forest attributes at multiple scales. Using spatially explicit landscape simulation experiments, we gather insights into how these large scale, multifaceted processes (fire risk, timber harvesting and the amount of protected area) influenced both the persistence of the threatened boreal caribou and the level of timber supply in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. Our result showed that failure to account explicitly and a priori for fire risk in the calculation of timber supply led to an overestimation of timber harvest volume, which in turn led to rates of cumulative disturbances that threatened both the long-term persistence of boreal caribou and the sustainability of the timber supply itself. Salvage logging, however, allowed some compensatory cumulative effects. It minimised the reductions of timber supply within a range of ∼10% while reducing the negative impact of cumulative disturbances caused by fire and logging on caribou. With the global increase of the human footprint on forest ecosystems, our approach and results provide useful tools and insights for managers to resolve what often appear as lose-lose situation between the persistence of species at risk and timber harvest in other forest ecosystems. These tools contribute to bridge the gap between conservation and forest management, two disciplines that remain too often disconnected in practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Cumulative response of ecosystem carbon and nitrogen stocks to chronic CO₂ exposure in a subtropical oak woodland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hungate, Bruce A; Dijkstra, Paul; Wu, Zhuoting; Duval, Benjamin D; Day, Frank P; Johnson, Dale W; Megonigal, J Patrick; Brown, Alisha L P; Garland, Jay L

    2013-11-01

    Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) could alter the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of ecosystems, yet the magnitude of these effects are not well known. We examined C and N budgets of a subtropical woodland after 11 yr of exposure to elevated CO₂. We used open-top chambers to manipulate CO₂ during regrowth after fire, and measured C, N and tracer (15) N in ecosystem components throughout the experiment. Elevated CO₂ increased plant C and tended to increase plant N but did not significantly increase whole-system C or N. Elevated CO₂ increased soil microbial activity and labile soil C, but more slowly cycling soil C pools tended to decline. Recovery of a long-term (15) N tracer indicated that CO₂ exposure increased N losses and altered N distribution, with no effect on N inputs. Increased plant C accrual was accompanied by higher soil microbial activity and increased C losses from soil, yielding no statistically detectable effect of elevated CO₂ on net ecosystem C uptake. These findings challenge the treatment of terrestrial ecosystems responses to elevated CO₂ in current biogeochemical models, where the effect of elevated CO₂ on ecosystem C balance is described as enhanced photosynthesis and plant growth with decomposition as a first-order response. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  14. Elevated carbon dioxide and ozone alter productivity and ecosystem carbon content in northern temperate forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talhelm, Alan F; Pregitzer, Kurt S; Kubiske, Mark E; Zak, Donald R; Campany, Courtney E; Burton, Andrew J; Dickson, Richard E; Hendrey, George R; Isebrands, J G; Lewin, Keith F; Nagy, John; Karnosky, David F

    2014-08-01

    Three young northern temperate forest communities in the north-central United States were exposed to factorial combinations of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and tropospheric ozone (O3 ) for 11 years. Here, we report results from an extensive sampling of plant biomass and soil conducted at the conclusion of the experiment that enabled us to estimate ecosystem carbon (C) content and cumulative net primary productivity (NPP). Elevated CO2 enhanced ecosystem C content by 11%, whereas elevated O3 decreased ecosystem C content by 9%. There was little variation in treatment effects on C content across communities and no meaningful interactions between CO2 and O3 . Treatment effects on ecosystem C content resulted primarily from changes in the near-surface mineral soil and tree C, particularly differences in woody tissues. Excluding the mineral soil, cumulative NPP was a strong predictor of ecosystem C content (r(2) = 0.96). Elevated CO2 enhanced cumulative NPP by 39%, a consequence of a 28% increase in canopy nitrogen (N) content (g N m(-2) ) and a 28% increase in N productivity (NPP/canopy N). In contrast, elevated O3 lowered NPP by 10% because of a 21% decrease in canopy N, but did not impact N productivity. Consequently, as the marginal impact of canopy N on NPP (∆NPP/∆N) decreased through time with further canopy development, the O3 effect on NPP dissipated. Within the mineral soil, there was less C in the top 0.1 m of soil under elevated O3 and less soil C from 0.1 to 0.2 m in depth under elevated CO2 . Overall, these results suggest that elevated CO2 may create a sustained increase in NPP, whereas the long-term effect of elevated O3 on NPP will be smaller than expected. However, changes in soil C are not well-understood and limit our ability to predict changes in ecosystem C content. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Elevated carbon dioxide and ozone alter productivity and ecosystem carbon content in northern temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talhelm, Alan F; Pregitzer, Kurt S; Kubiske, Mark E; Zak, Donald R; Campany, Courtney E; Burton, Andrew J; Dickson, Richard E; Hendrey, George R; Isebrands, J G; Lewin, Keith F; Nagy, John; Karnosky, David F

    2014-01-01

    Three young northern temperate forest communities in the north-central United States were exposed to factorial combinations of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O3) for 11 years. Here, we report results from an extensive sampling of plant biomass and soil conducted at the conclusion of the experiment that enabled us to estimate ecosystem carbon (C) content and cumulative net primary productivity (NPP). Elevated CO2 enhanced ecosystem C content by 11%, whereas elevated O3 decreased ecosystem C content by 9%. There was little variation in treatment effects on C content across communities and no meaningful interactions between CO2 and O3. Treatment effects on ecosystem C content resulted primarily from changes in the near-surface mineral soil and tree C, particularly differences in woody tissues. Excluding the mineral soil, cumulative NPP was a strong predictor of ecosystem C content (r2 = 0.96). Elevated CO2 enhanced cumulative NPP by 39%, a consequence of a 28% increase in canopy nitrogen (N) content (g N m−2) and a 28% increase in N productivity (NPP/canopy N). In contrast, elevated O3 lowered NPP by 10% because of a 21% decrease in canopy N, but did not impact N productivity. Consequently, as the marginal impact of canopy N on NPP (ΔNPP/ΔN) decreased through time with further canopy development, the O3 effect on NPP dissipated. Within the mineral soil, there was less C in the top 0.1 m of soil under elevated O3 and less soil C from 0.1 to 0.2 m in depth under elevated CO2. Overall, these results suggest that elevated CO2 may create a sustained increase in NPP, whereas the long-term effect of elevated O3 on NPP will be smaller than expected. However, changes in soil C are not well-understood and limit our ability to predict changes in ecosystem C content. PMID:24604779

  16. Parenting intervention and the caregiving environment : cumulative risk and process evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, Mirjam Neeltje

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the research described in this thesis was to study single and cumulative family risk in relation to early childhood externalizing problems and the effectiveness of a parenting intervention program. The Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive

  17. Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

  18. An Ecosystem-Service Approach to Evaluate the Role of Non-Native Species in Urbanized Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yam, Rita S. W.; Huang, Ko-Pu; Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Huang, Shou-Chung

    2015-01-01

    Natural wetlands have been increasingly transformed into urbanized ecosystems commonly colonized by stress-tolerant non-native species. Although non-native species present numerous threats to natural ecosystems, some could provide important benefits to urbanized ecosystems. This study investigated the extent of colonization by non-native fish and bird species of three urbanized wetlands in subtropical Taiwan. Using literature data the role of each non-native species in the urbanized wetland was evaluated by their effect (benefits/damages) on ecosystem services (ES) based on their ecological traits. Our sites were seriously colonized by non-native fishes (39%–100%), but wetland ES. Our results indicated the importance of non-native fishes in supporting ES by serving as food source to fish-eating waterbirds (native, and migratory species) due to their high abundance, particularly for Oreochromis spp. However, all non-native birds are regarded as “harmful” species causing important ecosystem disservices, and thus eradication of these bird-invaders from urban wetlands would be needed. This simple framework for role evaluation of non-native species represents a holistic and transferable approach to facilitate decision making on management priority of non-native species in urbanized wetlands. PMID:25860870

  19. Threats to biodiversity from cumulative human impacts in one of North America's last wildlife frontiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackelford, Nancy; Standish, Rachel J; Ripple, William; Starzomski, Brian M

    2017-10-25

    Land-use change is the largest proximate threat to biodiversity yet remains one of the most complex to manage. In British Columbia (BC), where large mammals roam extensive tracts of intact habitat, continued land-use development is of global concern. Extant mammal diversity in BC is unrivalled in North America owing, in part, to its unique position at the intersection of alpine, boreal, and temperate biomes. Despite high conservation values, understanding of cumulative ecological impacts from human development is limited. Using cumulative-effects-assessment (CEA) methods, we assessed the current human footprint over 16 regional ecosystems and 7 large mammal species. Using historical and current range estimates of the mammals, we investigated impacts of human land use on species' persistence. For ecosystems, we found that bunchgrass, coastal Douglas fir, and ponderosa pine have been subjected to over 50% land-use conversion, and over 85% of their spatial extent has undergone either direct or estimated indirect impacts. Of the mammals we considered, wolves were the least affected by land conversion, yet all species had reduced ranges compared with historical estimates. We found evidence of a hard trade-off between development and conservation, most clearly for mammals with large distributions and ecosystems with high levels of conversion. Rather than serve as a platform to monitor species decline, we strongly advocate these data be used to inform land-use planning and to assess current conservation efforts. More generally, CEAs offer a robust tool to inform wildlife and habitat conservation at scale. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Passive monitoring techniques for evaluating atmospheric ozone and nitrogen exposure and deposition to California ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark E. Fenn; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Susan L. Schilling

    2018-01-01

    Measuring the exposure of ecosystems to ecologically relevant pollutants is needed for evaluating ecosystem effects and to identify regions and resources at risk. In California, ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) pollutants are of greatest concern for ecological effects. "Passive" monitoring methods have been developed to obtain spatially...

  1. Evaluation of the Mineral Status of Two Ecosystems for Sustainable Goat Rearing in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Vilallonga

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The mineral status in two ecosystems typical of the Iberian Peninsula was evaluated. Ecosystem I was formed by forests and ecosystem II by hilly areas. The levels of calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, iron, copper, zinc and selenium in soils, rations and serum were measured. The concentratons of iron, copper, zinc and selenium were also checked in liver. Ecosystem I showed higher values of every mineral, except for phosphorus. Seasonal differences were recorded for rations and serum, with higher values in spring. The rations produced by both ecosystems met the mineral requirements of goats in lactation. Thus, both ecosystems are suitable for the development of an ecological goat farming system. However, extra supply of minerals, particularly calcium, may be needed in the maximum productions periods.

  2. An Architecture Framework for Orchestrating Context-Aware IT Ecosystems: A Case Study for Quantitative Evaluation †.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Soojin; Park, Sungyong; Park, Young B

    2018-02-12

    With the emergence of various forms of smart devices and new paradigms such as the Internet of Things (IoT) concept, the IT (Information Technology) service areas are expanding explosively compared to the provision of services by single systems. A new system operation concept that has emerged in accordance with such technical trends is the IT ecosystem. The IT ecosystem can be considered a special type of system of systems in which multiple systems with various degrees of autonomy achieve common goals while adapting to the given environment. The single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem adapt autonomously to the current situation based on collected data from sensors. Furthermore, to maintain the services supported by the whole IT ecosystem sustainably, the configuration of single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem also changes appropriately in accordance with the changed situation. In order to support the IT ecosystem, this paper proposes an architecture framework that supports dynamic configuration changes to achieve the goal of the whole IT ecosystem, while ensuring the autonomy of single systems through the collection of data from sensors so as to recognize the situational context of individual participating systems. For the feasibility evaluation of the proposed framework, a simulated example of an IT ecosystem for unmanned forest management was constructed, and the quantitative evaluation results are discussed in terms of the extent to which the proposed architecture framework can continuously provide sustainable services in response to diverse environmental context changes.

  3. Applying and Individual-Based Model to Simultaneously Evaluate Net Ecosystem Production and Tree Diameter Increment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, F. J.

    2017-12-01

    Reconciling observations at fundamentally different scales is central in understanding the global carbon cycle. This study investigates a model-based melding of forest inventory data, remote-sensing data and micrometeorological-station data ("flux towers" estimating forest heat, CO2 and H2O fluxes). The individual tree-based model FORCCHN was used to evaluate the tree DBH increment and forest carbon fluxes. These are the first simultaneous simulations of the forest carbon budgets from flux towers and individual-tree growth estimates of forest carbon budgets using the continuous forest inventory data — under circumstances in which both predictions can be tested. Along with the global implications of such findings, this also improves the capacity for forest sustainable management and the comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystems. In forest ecology, diameter at breast height (DBH) of a tree significantly determines an individual tree's cross-sectional sapwood area, its biomass and carbon storage. Evaluation the annual DBH increment (ΔDBH) of an individual tree is central to understanding tree growth and forest ecology. Ecosystem Carbon flux is a consequence of key ecosystem processes in the forest-ecosystem carbon cycle, Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP and NPP, respectively) and Net Ecosystem Respiration (NEP). All of these closely relate with tree DBH changes and tree death. Despite advances in evaluating forest carbon fluxes with flux towers and forest inventories for individual tree ΔDBH, few current ecological models can simultaneously quantify and predict the tree ΔDBH and forest carbon flux.

  4. Managing Forests for Water in the Anthropocene—The Best Kept Secret Services of Forest Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena F. Creed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Water and forests are inextricably linked. Pressures on forests from population growth and climate change are increasing risks to forests and their aquatic ecosystem services (AES. There is a need to incorporate AES in forest management but there is considerable uncertainty about how to do so. Approaches that manage forest ecosystem services such as fiber, water and carbon sequestration independently ignore the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their responses to management actions, with the potential for unintended consequences that are difficult to predict. The ISO 31000 Risk Management Standard is a standardized framework to assess risks to forest AES and to prioritize management strategies to manage risks within tolerable ranges. The framework consists of five steps: establishing the management context, identifying, analyzing, evaluating and treating the risks. Challenges to implementing the framework include the need for novel models and indicators to assess forest change and resilience, quantification of linkages between forest practice and AES, and the need for an integrated systems approach to assess cumulative effects and stressors on forest ecosystems and AES. In the face of recent international agreements to protect forests, there are emerging opportunities for international leadership to address these challenges in order to protect both forests and AES.

  5. [Impacts of hydroelectric cascade exploitation on river ecosystem and landscape: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kun; Deng, Xi; Li, Xue-Ling; Wen, Ping

    2011-05-01

    Hydroelectric cascade exploitation, one of the major ways for exploiting water resources and developing hydropower, not only satisfies the needs of various national economic sectors, but also promotes the socio-economic sustainable development of river basin. unavoidable anthropogenic impacts on the entire basin ecosystem. Based on the process of hydroelectric cascade exploitation and the ecological characteristics of river basins, this paper reviewed the major impacts of hydroelectric cascade exploitation on dam-area ecosystems, river reservoirs micro-climate, riparian ecosystems, river aquatic ecosystems, wetlands, and river landscapes. Some prospects for future research were offered, e.g., strengthening the research of chain reactions and cumulative effects of ecological factors affected by hydroelectric cascade exploitation, intensifying the study of positive and negative ecological effects under the dam networks and their joint operations, and improving the research of successional development and stability of basin ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales.

  6. Biota connect aquatic habitats throughout freshwater ecosystem mosaics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Kate A.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Ridley, Caroline E.; Vanderhoof, Melanie; Fritz, Ken M.; Autrey, Bradley; DeMeester, Julie; Kepner, William G.; Lane, Charles R.; Leibowitz, Scott; Pollard, Amina I.

    2018-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are linked at various spatial and temporal scales by movements of biota adapted to life in water. We review the literature on movements of aquatic organisms that connect different types of freshwater habitats, focusing on linkages from streams and wetlands to downstream waters. Here, streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, ponds, and other freshwater habitats are viewed as dynamic freshwater ecosystem mosaics (FEMs) that collectively provide the resources needed to sustain aquatic life. Based on existing evidence, it is clear that biotic linkages throughout FEMs have important consequences for biological integrity and biodiversity. All aquatic organisms move within and among FEM components, but differ in the mode, frequency, distance, and timing of their movements. These movements allow biota to recolonize habitats, avoid inbreeding, escape stressors, locate mates, and acquire resources. Cumulatively, these individual movements connect populations within and among FEMs and contribute to local and regional diversity, resilience to disturbance, and persistence of aquatic species in the face of environmental change. Thus, the biological connections established by movement of biota among streams, wetlands, and downstream waters are critical to the ecological integrity of these systems. Future research will help advance our understanding of the movements that link FEMs and their cumulative effects on downstream waters.

  7. Surfactant-induced skin irritation and skin repair: evaluation of a cumulative human irritation model by noninvasive techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, K P; Freitag, G; Wolff, H H

    1994-12-01

    Although surfactant-induced acute irritant dermatitis has been extensively studied, our understanding about the induction and repair of the clinically more relevant chronic form is limited. Our purpose was to investigate qualitative and quantitative differences in surfactant-induced irritant skin reactions from cumulative exposure to structurally unrelated surfactants and to compare the maximal irritant responses from this model with corresponding reactions noted in a previously reported acute irritation model. Sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS), dodecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (DTAB), and potassium soap were the model irritants. Surfactant solutions (7.5%) were applied for 20 minutes daily (for 8 consecutive days excluding the weekend) to the volar aspect of the forearm of 11 volunteers. Irritant reactions were repeatedly assessed until complete healing was indicated by visual assessment and by measurements of transepidermal water loss (TEWL), erythema (skin color reflectance), and stratum corneum hydration (electrical capacitance). Maximum irritant responses were compared with corresponding reactions from an acute irritation model. TEWL was increased by SLS and DTAB to the same extent, but erythema was significantly higher in DTAB-treated skin. Skin dryness, as demonstrated by decreased capacitance values and increased scores for scaling and fissuring, was significantly more pronounced than in an acute irritation model for SLS and DTAB, although no difference was detected between the two surfactants. Potassium soap led to a slight increase in TEWL, whereas the remaining features were not significantly changed. This chronic irritation model appears to represent the clinical situation of irritant contact dermatitis with pronounced skin dryness more closely than the acute irritation model. The present study confirms that an extended time is needed for complete healing of irritant skin reactions. We also demonstrated that the evaluation of the irritation potential of

  8. Diverse effects of invasive ecosystem engineers on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functions: A global review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy-Haim, Tamar; Lyons, Devin A; Kotta, Jonne; Ojaveer, Henn; Queirós, Ana M; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Arvanitidis, Christos; Como, Serena; Magni, Paolo; Blight, Andrew J; Orav-Kotta, Helen; Somerfield, Paul J; Crowe, Tasman P; Rilov, Gil

    2018-03-01

    Invasive ecosystem engineers (IEE) are potentially one of the most influential types of biological invaders. They are expected to have extensive ecological impacts by altering the physical-chemical structure of ecosystems, thereby changing the rules of existence for a broad range of resident biota. To test the generality of this expectation, we used a global systematic review and meta-analysis to examine IEE effects on the abundance of individual species and communities, biodiversity (using several indices) and ecosystem functions, focusing on marine and estuarine environments. We found that IEE had a significant effect (positive and negative) in most studies testing impacts on individual species, but the overall (cumulative) effect size was small and negative. Many individual studies showed strong IEE effects on community abundance and diversity, but the direction of effects was variable, leading to statistically non-significant overall effects in most categories. In contrast, there was a strong overall effect on most ecosystem functions we examined. IEE negatively affected metabolic functions and primary production, but positively affected nutrient flux, sedimentation and decomposition. We use the results to develop a conceptual model by highlighting pathways whereby IEE impact communities and ecosystem functions, and identify several sources of research bias in the IEE-related invasion literature. Only a few of the studies simultaneously quantified IEE effects on community/diversity and ecosystem functions. Therefore, understanding how IEE may alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships should be a primary focus of future studies of invasion biology. Moreover, the clear effects of IEE on ecosystem functions detected in our study suggest that scientists and environmental managers ought to examine how the effects of IEE might be manifested in the services that marine ecosystems provide to humans. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Cumulative response of ecosystem carbon and nitrogen stocks to chronic CO2 exposure in a subtropical oak woodland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hungate, Bruce A; Dijkstra, Paul; Wu, Zhuoting; Duval, Benjamin D; Day, Frank P; Johnson, Dale W; Megonigal, J Patrick; Brown, Alisha L P; Garland, Jay L

    2013-01-01

    Summary Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could alter the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of ecosystems, yet the magnitude of these effects are not well known. We examined C and N budgets of a subtropical woodland after 11 yr of exposure to elevated CO2. We used open-top chambers to manipulate CO2 during regrowth after fire, and measured C, N and tracer 15N in ecosystem components throughout the experiment. Elevated CO2 increased plant C and tended to increase plant N but did not significantly increase whole-system C or N. Elevated CO2 increased soil microbial activity and labile soil C, but more slowly cycling soil C pools tended to decline. Recovery of a long-term 15N tracer indicated that CO2 exposure increased N losses and altered N distribution, with no effect on N inputs. Increased plant C accrual was accompanied by higher soil microbial activity and increased C losses from soil, yielding no statistically detectable effect of elevated CO2 on net ecosystem C uptake. These findings challenge the treatment of terrestrial ecosystems responses to elevated CO2 in current biogeochemical models, where the effect of elevated CO2 on ecosystem C balance is described as enhanced photosynthesis and plant growth with decomposition as a first-order response. PMID:23718224

  10. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

  11. The challenge of cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, Elisabeth

    2011-07-01

    Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

  12. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyhn, Line Anker; Wright, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences...... on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making...... could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts....

  13. Evaluating CO2 and CH4 dynamics of Alaskan ecosystems during the Holocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Jones, Miriam C.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Bochicchio, Christopher; Felzer, B. S.; Mason, Erik; Yu, Zicheng

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic has experienced much greater warming than the global average in recent decades due to polar amplification. Warming has induced ecological changes that have impacted climate carbon-cycle feedbacks, making it important to understand the climate and vegetation controls on carbon (C) dynamics. Here we used the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM, 11–9 ka BP, 1 ka BP = 1000 cal yr before present) in Alaska as a case study to examine how ecosystem Cdynamics responded to the past warming climate using an integrated approach of combining paleoecological reconstructions and ecosystem modeling. Our paleoecological synthesis showed expansion of deciduous broadleaf forest (dominated by Populus) into tundra and the establishment of boreal evergreen needleleaf and mixed forest during the second half of the HTM under a warmer- and wetter-than-before climate, coincident with the occurrence of the highest net primary productivity, cumulative net ecosystem productivity, soil C accumulation and CH4 emissions. These series of ecological and biogeochemical shifts mirrored the solar insolation and subsequent temperature and precipitation patterns during HTM, indicating the importance of climate controls on C dynamics. Our simulated regional estimate of CH4 emission rates from Alaska during the HTM ranged from 3.5 to 6.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 and highest annual NPP of 470 Tg C yr−1, significantly higher than previously reported modern estimates. Our results show that the differences in static vegetation distribution maps used in simulations of different time slices have greater influence on modeled C dynamics than climatic fields within each time slice, highlighting the importance of incorporating vegetation community dynamics and their responses to climatic conditions in long-term biogeochemical modeling.

  14. Use of geomorphic, hydrologic, and nitrogen mass balance data to model ecosystem nitrate retention in tidal freshwater wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. D. Seldomridge

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Geomorphic characteristics have been used as scaling parameters to predict water and other fluxes in many systems. In this study, we combined geomorphic analysis with in-situ mass balance studies of nitrate retention (NR to evaluate which geomorphic scaling parameters best predicted NR in a tidal freshwater wetland ecosystem. Geomorphic characteristics were measured for 267 individual marshes that constitute the freshwater tidal wetland ecosystem of the Patuxent River, Maryland. Nitrate retention was determined from mass balance measurements conducted at the inlets of marshes of varying size (671, 5705, and 536 873 m2 over a period of several years. Mass balance measurements indicate that NR is proportional to total water flux over the tidal cycle. Relationships between estimated tidal prism (calculated water volume for spring tides and various geomorphic parameters (marsh area, total channel length, and inlet width were defined using measurements from air photos and compared to field data. From these data, NR equations were determined for each geomorphic parameter, and used to estimate NR for all marshes in the ecosystem for a reference spring (high tide. The resulting ecosystem NR estimates were evaluated for (a accuracy and completeness of geomorphic data, (b relationship between the geomorphic parameters and hydrologic flux, and (c the ability to adapt the geomorphic parameter to varying tidal conditions. This analysis indicated that inlet width data were the most complete and provided the best estimate of ecosystem nitrate retention. Predictions based on marsh area were significantly lower than the inlet width-based predictions. Cumulative probability distributions of nitrate retention indicate that the largest 3–4% of the marshes retained half of the total nitrate for the ecosystem.

  15. Exploring methods for predicting multiple pressures on ecosystem recovery: A case study on marine eutrophication and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uusitalo, Laura; Korpinen, Samuli; Andersen, Jesper H.

    2016-01-01

    found that a large uncertainty existed regarding the ecosystem response to the management scenarios, and that the three different modelling approaches complemented each other. The models indicated that in order to reach an improved overall state of the ecosystem nutrient reductions are the more...... effective of the two management variables explored, and that cumulative effects of the management of nutrient inputs and fishing mortality are likely to exist....

  16. An Ecosystem-Service Approach to Evaluate the Role of Non-Native Species in Urbanized Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita S. W. Yam

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural wetlands have been increasingly transformed into urbanized ecosystems commonly colonized by stress-tolerant non-native species. Although non-native species present numerous threats to natural ecosystems, some could provide important benefits to urbanized ecosystems. This study investigated the extent of colonization by non-native fish and bird species of three urbanized wetlands in subtropical Taiwan. Using literature data the role of each non-native species in the urbanized wetland was evaluated by their effect (benefits/damages on ecosystem services (ES based on their ecological traits. Our sites were seriously colonized by non-native fishes (39%–100%, but <3% by non-native birds. Although most non-native species could damage ES regulation (disease control and wastewater purification, some could be beneficial to the urbanized wetland ES. Our results indicated the importance of non-native fishes in supporting ES by serving as food source to fish-eating waterbirds (native, and migratory species due to their high abundance, particularly for Oreochromis spp. However, all non-native birds are regarded as “harmful” species causing important ecosystem disservices, and thus eradication of these bird-invaders from urban wetlands would be needed. This simple framework for role evaluation of non-native species represents a holistic and transferable approach to facilitate decision making on management priority of non-native species in urbanized wetlands.

  17. Net ecosystem production in a Little Ice Age moraine: the role of plant functional traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varolo, E.; Zanotelli, D.; Tagliavini, M.; Zerbe, S.; Montagnani, L.

    2015-07-01

    Current glacier retreat allows vast mountain ranges available for vegetation establishment and growth. Little is known about the effective carbon (C) budget of these new ecosystems and how the presence of different vegetation communities, characterized by their specific physiology and life forms influences C fluxes. In this study, using a comparative analysis of the C fluxes of two contrasting vegetation types, we intend to evaluate if the different physiologies of the main species have an effect on Ecosystem Respiration (Reco), Gross Primary Production (GPP), annual cumulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), and long-term carbon accumulation in soil. The NEE of two plant communities present on a Little Ice Age moraine in the Matsch glacier forefield (Alps, Italy) was measured over two growing seasons. They are a typical C3 grassland, dominated by Festuca halleri All. and a community dominated by CAM rosettes Sempervivum montanum L. on rocky soils. Using transparent and opaque chambers, we extrapolated the ecophysiological responses to the main environmental drivers and performed the partition of NEE into Reco and GPP. Soil samples were collected from the same site to measure long-term C accumulation in the ecosystem. The two communities showed contrasting GPP but similar Reco patterns and as a result significantly different in NEE. The grassland acted mainly as a carbon sink with a total cumulated value of -46.4 ± 35.5 g C m-2 NEE while the plots dominated by the CAM rosettes acted as a source with 31.9 ± 22.4 g C m-2. In spite of the NEE being different in the two plant communities, soil analysis did not reveal significant differences in carbon accumulation. Grasslands showed 1.76 ± 0.12 kg C m-2, while CAM rosettes showed 2.06 ± 0.23 kg C m-2. This study demonstrates that carbon dynamics of two vegetation communities can be distinct even though the growing environment is similar. The physiological traits of the dominant species determine large differences in

  18. Impact of soil moisture deficit on ecosystem function across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Moran; Morgan Ross; Mallory Burns

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effect of recent prolonged warm drought on regional ecosystem function is still uncertain. Large regions of the United States are experiencing new hydroclimatic conditions with extreme variability in climate drivers such as total precipitation, precipitation patterns (e.g., storm size, intensity and frequency), and seasonal temperatures.

  19. Applicability of the tissue stem cell turnover concept on the validity of cumulative dose based radiation risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsuka, Kensuke; Hamada, Nobuyuki; Iwasaki, Toshiyasu; Yoshida, Kazuo

    2011-01-01

    The radiation protection system adopts the linear no-threshold model to achieve proper radiation protection for considering cancer risks resulting from radiation exposure. This model uses cumulative dose to a tissue for risk evaluation in which cumulative dose is related to the amount of DNA damage and consequential induction of gene mutation. In this concept, gene mutation accumulates in tissue stem cells, the putative target of carcinogenesis, with total dose given to the tissue. Unlike high-dose-rate exposure, epidemiological studies in high radiation background areas, such as Kerala in India, revealed that cancer risks is not elevated by the dose to the inhabitants, suggesting that there exists some mechanisms to eliminate the damage/mutation in the exposed tissue under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. In this report, the dynamics of tissue stem cell turnover is evaluated as a possible mechanism under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. To this end, we reviewed recent literatures studying tissue stem cell turnover, and found that great advances in stem cell research have made it possible to trace a fate of stem cells in tissues. Furthermore, turnover of tissue stem cells is found to occur after irradiation, due to competition of stem cells within tissues. This raises a possibility that radiation effects may not accumulate in a tissue depending on the dose-rate and duration of exposure period. (author)

  20. Global Ecosystem Restoration Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandez, Miguel; Garcia, Monica; Fernandez, Nestor

    2015-01-01

    The Global ecosystem restoration index (GERI) is a composite index that integrates structural and functional aspects of the ecosystem restoration process. These elements are evaluated through a window that looks into a baseline for degraded ecosystems with the objective to assess restoration...

  1. A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

  2. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

  3. Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

  4. Evaluating the return in ecosystem services from investment in public land acquisitions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kent Kovacs

    Full Text Available We evaluate the return on investment (ROI from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST, to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC, including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values.

  5. Evaluating the Return in Ecosystem Services from Investment in Public Land Acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Kent; Polasky, Stephen; Nelson, Erik; Keeler, Bonnie L.; Pennington, Derric; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Taff, Steven J.

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values. PMID:23776429

  6. Incorporating ecosystem services into environmental management of deep-seabed mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Jennifer T.; Levin, Lisa A.; Carson, Richard T.

    2017-03-01

    Accelerated exploration of minerals in the deep sea over the past decade has raised the likelihood that commercial mining of the deep seabed will commence in the near future. Environmental concerns create a growing urgency for development of environmental regulations under commercial exploitation. Here, we consider an ecosystem services approach to the environmental policy and management of deep-sea mineral resources. Ecosystem services link the environment and human well-being, and can help improve sustainability and stewardship of the deep sea by providing a quantitative basis for decision-making. This paper briefly reviews ecosystem services provided by habitats targeted for deep-seabed mining (hydrothermal vents, seamounts, nodule provinces, and phosphate-rich margins), and presents practical steps to incorporate ecosystem services into deep-seabed mining regulation. The linkages and translation between ecosystem structure, ecological function (including supporting services), and ecosystem services are highlighted as generating human benefits. We consider criteria for identifying which ecosystem services are vulnerable to potential mining impacts, the role of ecological functions in providing ecosystem services, development of ecosystem service indicators, valuation of ecosystem services, and implementation of ecosystem services concepts. The first three steps put ecosystem services into a deep-seabed mining context; the last two steps help to incorporate ecosystem services into a management and decision-making framework. Phases of environmental planning discussed in the context of ecosystem services include conducting strategic environmental assessments, collecting baseline data, monitoring, establishing marine protected areas, assessing cumulative impacts, identifying thresholds and triggers, and creating an environmental damage compensation regime. We also identify knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in order to operationalize ecosystem services

  7. Elaboration of a concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk; Moch, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    Article 10(1) of the EU Biocidal Products Directive 98/8/EC (BPD) requires that for the inclusion of an active substance in Annex I, Annex IA or IB, cumulation effects from the use of biocidal products containing the same active substance shall be taken into account, where relevant. The study proves the feasibility of a technical realisation of Article 10(1) of the BPD and elaborates a first concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides. Existing requirements concerning cumulative assessments in other regulatory frameworks have been evaluated and their applicability for biocides has been examined. Technical terms and definitions used in this context were documented with the aim to harmonise terminology with other frameworks and to set up a precise definition within the BPD. Furthermore, application conditions of biocidal products have been analysed to find out for which cumulative exposure assessments may be relevant. Different parameters were identified which might serve as indicators for the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments. These indicators were then integrated in a flow chart by means of which the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments can be checked. Finally, proposals for the technical performance of cumulative exposure assessments within the Review Programme have been elaborated with the aim to bring the results of the project into the upcoming development and harmonization processes on EU level. (orig.)

  8. Towards ecosystem-based management: Identifying operational food-web indicators for marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tam, Jamie C.; Link, Jason S.; Rossberg, Axel G.

    2017-01-01

    ) are an important aspect of all marine ecosystems and biodiversity. Here we describe and discuss a process to evaluate the selection of operational food-web indicators for use in evaluating marine ecosystem status. This process brought together experts in food-web ecology, marine ecology, and resource management......, to identify available indicators that can be used to inform marine management. Standard evaluation criteria (availability and quality of data, conceptual basis, communicability, relevancy to management) were implemented to identify practical food-web indicators ready for operational use and indicators...... that hold promise for future use in policy and management. The major attributes of the final suite of operational food-web indicators were structure and functioning. Indicators that represent resilience of the marine ecosystem were less developed. Over 60 potential food-web indicators were evaluated...

  9. Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

    2016-01-01

    Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

  10. Quantitative methods for analysing cumulative effects on fish migration success: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, J E; Patterson, D A; Martins, E G; Cooke, S J; Hinch, S G

    2012-07-01

    It is often recognized, but seldom addressed, that a quantitative assessment of the cumulative effects, both additive and non-additive, of multiple stressors on fish survival would provide a more realistic representation of the factors that influence fish migration. This review presents a compilation of analytical methods applied to a well-studied fish migration, a more general review of quantitative multivariable methods, and a synthesis on how to apply new analytical techniques in fish migration studies. A compilation of adult migration papers from Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka revealed a limited number of multivariable methods being applied and the sub-optimal reliance on univariable methods for multivariable problems. The literature review of fisheries science, general biology and medicine identified a large number of alternative methods for dealing with cumulative effects, with a limited number of techniques being used in fish migration studies. An evaluation of the different methods revealed that certain classes of multivariable analyses will probably prove useful in future assessments of cumulative effects on fish migration. This overview and evaluation of quantitative methods gathered from the disparate fields should serve as a primer for anyone seeking to quantify cumulative effects on fish migration survival. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  11. Evaluating long-term cumulative hydrologic effects of forest management: a conceptual approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert R. Ziemer

    1992-01-01

    It is impractical to address experimentally many aspects of cumulative hydrologic effects, since to do so would require studying large watersheds for a century or more. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using three hypothetical 10,000-ha fifth-order forested watersheds. Most of the physical processes expressed by the model are transferable from temperate to...

  12. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  13. Secant cumulants and toric geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

  14. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  15. A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Ohman, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems. PMID:23341628

  16. Transmission fidelity is the key to the build-up of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Hannah M; Laland, Kevin N

    2012-08-05

    Many animals have socially transmitted behavioural traditions, but human culture appears unique in that it is cumulative, i.e. human cultural traits increase in diversity and complexity over time. It is often suggested that high-fidelity cultural transmission is necessary for cumulative culture to occur through refinement, a process known as 'ratcheting', but this hypothesis has never been formally evaluated. We discuss processes of information transmission and loss of traits from a cognitive viewpoint alongside other cultural processes of novel invention (generation of entirely new traits), modification (refinement of existing traits) and combination (bringing together two established traits to generate a new trait). We develop a simple cultural transmission model that does not assume major evolutionary changes (e.g. in brain architecture) and show that small changes in the fidelity with which information is passed between individuals can lead to cumulative culture. In comparison, modification and combination have a lesser influence on, and novel invention appears unimportant to, the ratcheting process. Our findings support the idea that high-fidelity transmission is the key driver of human cumulative culture, and that progress in cumulative culture depends more on trait combination than novel invention or trait modification.

  17. Analysis and design of software ecosystem architectures – Towards the 4S telemedicine ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kyng, Morten

    2014-01-01

    performed a descriptive, revelatory case study of the Danish telemedicine ecosystem and for ii), we experimentally designed, implemented, and evaluated the architecture of 4S. Results We contribute in three areas. First, we define the software ecosystem architecture concept that captures organization......, and application stove-pipes that inhibit the adoption of telemedical solutions. To which extent can a software ecosystem approach to telemedicine alleviate this? Objective In this article, we define the concept of software ecosystem architecture as the structure(s) of a software ecosystem comprising elements...... experience in creating and evolving the 4S telemedicine ecosystem. Conclusion The concept of software ecosystem architecture can be used analytically and constructively in respectively the analysis and design of software ecosystems....

  18. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  19. Linking ecosystem services with state-and-transition models to evaluate rangeland management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohani, S.; Heilman, P.; deSteiguer, J. E.; Guertin, D. P.; Wissler, C.; McClaran, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Quantifying ecosystem services is a crucial topic for land management decision making. However, market prices are usually not able to capture all the ecosystem services and disservices. Ecosystem services from rangelands, that cover 70% of the world's land area, are even less well-understood since knowledge of rangelands is limited. This study generated a management framework for rangelands that uses remote sensing to generate state and transition models (STMs) for a large area and a linear programming (LP) model that uses ecosystem services to evaluate natural and/or management induced transitions as described in the STM. The LP optimization model determines the best management plan for a plot of semi-arid land in the Empire Ranch in southeastern Arizona. The model allocated land among management activities (do nothing, grazing, fire, and brush removal) to optimize net benefits and determined the impact of monetizing environmental services and disservices on net benefits, acreage allocation and production output. The ecosystem services under study were forage production (AUM/ac/yr), sediment (lbs/ac/yr), water runoff (inches/yr), soil loss (lbs/ac/yr) and recreation (thousands of number of visitors/ac/yr). The optimization model was run for three different scenarios - private rancher, public rancher including environmental services and excluding disservices, and public rancher including both services and disservices. The net benefit was the highest for the public rancher excluding the disservices. A result from the study is a constrained optimization model that incorporates ecosystem services to analyze investments on conservation and management activities. Rangeland managers can use this model to understand and explain, not prescribe, the tradeoffs of management investments.

  20. Mapping Ecosystem Services: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Hayha, T.

    2014-01-01

    Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, from timber and non-wood products (provisioning services) to carbon sequestration, hydrogeological protection (regulating services), and recreation and aesthetic experiences (cultural services). Nonmarketed forest ecosystem services tend to be undervalued due to the lack of a market price and a clear understanding of their vital support to socio-economic systems. Ecosystem services are interlinked, and therefore the optimization of one typol...

  1. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  3. A Bayesian-Based Approach to Marine Spatial Planning: Evaluating Spatial and Temporal Variance in the Provision of Ecosystem Services Before and After the Establishment Oregon's Marine Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, B.; Harte, M.; Goldfinger, C.

    2017-12-01

    Participating in a ten-year monitoring project to assess the ecological, social, and socioeconomic impacts of Oregon's Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), we have worked in partnership with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) to develop a Bayesian geospatial method to evaluate the spatial and temporal variance in the provision of ecosystem services produced by Oregon's MPAs. Probabilistic (Bayesian) approaches to Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) show considerable potential for addressing issues such as uncertainty, cumulative effects, and the need to integrate stakeholder-held information and preferences into decision making processes. To that end, we have created a Bayesian-based geospatial approach to MSP capable of modelling the evolution of the provision of ecosystem services before and after the establishment of Oregon's MPAs. Our approach permits both planners and stakeholders to view expected impacts of differing policies, behaviors, or choices made concerning Oregon's MPAs and surrounding areas in a geospatial (map) format while simultaneously considering multiple parties' beliefs on the policies or uses in question. We quantify the influence of the MPAs as the shift in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, both inside and outside the protected areas, over time. Once the MPAs' influence on the provision of coastal ecosystem services has been evaluated, it is possible to view these impacts through geovisualization techniques. As a specific example of model use and output, a user could investigate the effects of altering the habitat preferences of a rockfish species over a prescribed period of time (5, 10, 20 years post-harvesting restrictions, etc.) on the relative intensity of spillover from nearby reserves (please see submitted figure). Particular strengths of our Bayesian-based approach include its ability to integrate highly disparate input types (qualitative or quantitative), to accommodate data gaps, address uncertainty, and to

  4. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  5. Does ecosystem variability explain phytoplankton diversity? Solving an ecological puzzle with long-term data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarker, Subrata; Lemke, Peter; Wiltshire, Karen H.

    2018-05-01

    Explaining species diversity as a function of ecosystem variability is a long-term discussion in community-ecology research. Here, we aimed to establish a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity in a shallow-sea ecosystem. We used long-term data on biotic and abiotic factors from Helgoland Roads, along with climate data to assess the effect of ecosystem variability on phytoplankton diversity. A point cumulative semi-variogram method was used to estimate the long-term ecosystem variability. A Markov chain model was used to estimate dynamical processes of species i.e. occurrence, absence and outcompete probability. We identified that the 1980s was a period of high ecosystem variability while the last two decades were comparatively less variable. Ecosystem variability was found as an important predictor of phytoplankton diversity at Helgoland Roads. High diversity was related to low ecosystem variability due to non-significant relationship between probability of a species occurrence and absence, significant negative relationship between probability of a species occurrence and probability of a species to be outcompeted by others, and high species occurrence at low ecosystem variability. Using an exceptional marine long-term data set, this study established a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity.

  6. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piroddi, Chiara; Coll, Marta; Liquete, Camino; Macias, Diego; Greer, Krista; Buszowski, Joe; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Danovaro, Roberto; Christensen, Villy

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean Sea has been defined “under siege” because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950-2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological characteristics of the region. We observe a reduction in abundance of important fish species (~34%, including commercial and non-commercial) and top predators (~41%), and increases of the organisms at the bottom of the food web (~23%). Ecological indicators, such as community biomass, trophic levels, catch and diversity indicators, reflect such changes and show overall ecosystem degradation over time. Since climate change and fishing pressure are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean Sea, this study constitutes a baseline reference for stepping forward in assessing the future management of the basin.

  7. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  8. Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

    2007-01-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

  9. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

  10. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  11. Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

    2017-01-01

    Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

  12. Evaluation of Drought Implications on Ecosystem Services: Freshwater Provisioning and Food Provisioning in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ping; Omani, Nina; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Wei, Xiaomei

    2017-05-08

    Drought is one of the most widespread extreme climate events with a potential to alter freshwater availability and related ecosystem services. Given the interconnectedness between freshwater availability and many ecosystem services, including food provisioning, it is important to evaluate the drought implications on freshwater provisioning and food provisioning services. Studies about drought implications on streamflow, nutrient loads, and crop yields have been increased and these variables are all process-based model outputs that could represent ecosystem functions that contribute to the ecosystem services. However, few studies evaluate drought effects on ecosystem services such as freshwater and food provisioning and quantify these services using an index-based ecosystem service approach. In this study, the drought implications on freshwater and food provisioning services were evaluated for 14 four-digit HUC (Hydrological Unit Codes) subbasins in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), using three drought indices: standardized precipitation index ( SPI ), standardized soil water content index ( SSWI ), and standardized streamflow index ( SSI ). The results showed that the seasonal freshwater provisioning was highly affected by the precipitation deficits and/or surpluses in summer and autumn. A greater importance of hydrological drought than meteorological drought implications on freshwater provisioning was evident for the majority of the subbasins, as evidenced by higher correlations between freshwater provisioning and SSI 12 than SPI 12. Food provisioning was substantially affected by the precipitation and soil water deficits during summer and early autumn, with relatively less effect observed in winter. A greater importance of agricultural drought effects on food provisioning was evident for most of the subbasins during crop reproductive stages. Results from this study may provide insights to help make effective land management decisions in responding to

  13. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  14. Cumulative impoundment evaporation in water resource management within the mid-Atlantic: A case study in Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D.; Burgholzer, R.; Kleiner, J.; Brogan, C. O.; Julson, C.; Withers, E.

    2017-12-01

    Across the eastern United States, successful management of water resources to satisfy the competing demands for human consumption, industry, agriculture, and ecosystems requires both water quality and water quantity considerations. Over the last 2 decades, low streamflows during dry summers have increased scrutiny on water supply withdrawals. Within Virginia, a statewide hydrologic model provides quantitative assessments on impacts from proposed water withdrawals to downstream river flow. Currently, evaporative losses are only accounted for from the large reservoirs. In this study, we sought to provide a baseline estimate for the cumulative evaporation from impoundments across all of the major river basins in Virginia. Virginia provides an ideal case study for the competing water demands in the mid-Atlantic region given the unique tracking of water withdrawals throughout the river corridor. In the over 73,000 Virginia impoundments, the cumulative annual impoundment evaporation was 706 MGD, or 49% of the permitted water withdrawal. The largest reservoirs (>100 acres) represented over 400 MGD, and 136 MGD for the smaller impoundments (water loss (evaporation + demand), with some areas where impoundment evaporation was greater than human water demand. Seasonally, our results suggest that cumulative impoundment evaporation in some watersheds greatly impacts streamflow during low flow periods. Our results demonstrate that future water supply planning will require not only understanding evaporation within large reservoirs, but also the thousands of small impoundments across the landscape.

  15. A simplified model for cumulative damage with interaction effect for creep loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomuc, R.; Bui-Quoc, T.; Biron, A.

    1989-01-01

    This paper explains that the basic creep-rupture behavior of a material at high temperature is obtained with constant stresses under isothermal conditions. Structural components operating at high temperature are, however, usually subjected to fluctuations of stresses and/or temperatures. Experimental conditions cannot cover all possible combinations of these parameters and, in addition, systematic investigations on cumulative creep damage are very limited due to long-term testing. The authors suggest that there is a need to establish a reliable procedure for evaluating the cumulative creep damage effect under non-steady stresses and temperatures

  16. Accounting for ecosystem services in Life Cycle Assessment, Part II: toward an ecologically based LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Baral, Anil; Bakshi, Bhavik R

    2010-04-01

    Despite the essential role of ecosystem goods and services in sustaining all human activities, they are often ignored in engineering decision making, even in methods that are meant to encourage sustainability. For example, conventional Life Cycle Assessment focuses on the impact of emissions and consumption of some resources. While aggregation and interpretation methods are quite advanced for emissions, similar methods for resources have been lagging, and most ignore the role of nature. Such oversight may even result in perverse decisions that encourage reliance on deteriorating ecosystem services. This article presents a step toward including the direct and indirect role of ecosystems in LCA, and a hierarchical scheme to interpret their contribution. The resulting Ecologically Based LCA (Eco-LCA) includes a large number of provisioning, regulating, and supporting ecosystem services as inputs to a life cycle model at the process or economy scale. These resources are represented in diverse physical units and may be compared via their mass, fuel value, industrial cumulative exergy consumption, or ecological cumulative exergy consumption or by normalization with total consumption of each resource or their availability. Such results at a fine scale provide insight about relative resource use and the risk and vulnerability to the loss of specific resources. Aggregate indicators are also defined to obtain indices such as renewability, efficiency, and return on investment. An Eco-LCA model of the 1997 economy is developed and made available via the web (www.resilience.osu.edu/ecolca). An illustrative example comparing paper and plastic cups provides insight into the features of the proposed approach. The need for further work in bridging the gap between knowledge about ecosystem services and their direct and indirect role in supporting human activities is discussed as an important area for future work.

  17. Cost-effectiveness of dryland forest restoration evaluated by spatial analysis of ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, Jennifer C.; Newton, Adrian C.; Aquino, Claudia Alvarez; Cantarello, Elena; Echeverría, Cristian; Kitzberger, Thomas; Schiappacasse, Ignacio; Garavito, Natalia Tejedor

    2010-01-01

    Although ecological restoration is widely used to combat environmental degradation, very few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this approach. We examine the potential impact of forest restoration on the value of multiple ecosystem services across four dryland areas in Latin America, by estimating the net value of ecosystem service benefits under different reforestation scenarios. The values of selected ecosystem services were mapped under each scenario, supported by the use of a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. We explored the economic potential of a change in land use from livestock grazing to restored native forest using different discount rates and performed a cost–benefit analysis of three restoration scenarios. Results show that passive restoration is cost-effective for all study areas on the basis of the services analyzed, whereas the benefits from active restoration are generally outweighed by the relatively high costs involved. These findings were found to be relatively insensitive to discount rate but were sensitive to the market value of carbon. Substantial variation in values was recorded between study areas, demonstrating that ecosystem service values are strongly context specific. However, spatial analysis enabled localized areas of net benefits to be identified, indicating the value of this approach for identifying the relative costs and benefits of restoration interventions across a landscape. PMID:21106761

  18. Correlating cumulative sub-concussive head impacts in football with player performance - biomed 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowson, Steven; Goforth, Mike W; Dietter, Dave; Brolinson, P Gunnar; Duma, Stefanan M

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of cumulative sub-concussive head impacts on football player performance. The helmets of three Virginia Tech football players were instrumented with a six accelerometer sensor capable of measuring head acceleration. Helmets were instrumented for every game during the 2006 and 2007 football seasons. Each time the head was impacted during a game, the sensor recorded the impact and wirelessly transmitted the data to a sideline computer. Furthermore, the coaching staff at Virginia Tech reviewed post-game film and evaluated each player's performance based on strict criteria. Players were awarded positive points for good plays and negative points for bad plays. Their performance scores were then normalized to a per play basis. Correlations of player performance with cumulative peak linear acceleration and cumulative head injury criterion (HIC) were evaluated. No consistent head acceleration-based measure showed a strong correlation with significance. In addition, relationship trends varied on a position basis. There are many factors other than head impacts that can affect a player's performance and more research is needed to further quantify such effects.

  19. An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

  20. Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Labiosa, William B.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

  1. Evaluation of the learning curve for external cephalic version using cumulative sum analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, So Yun; Han, Jung Yeol; Chang, Eun Hye; Kwak, Dong Wook; Ahn, Hyun Kyung; Ryu, Hyun Mi; Kim, Moon Young

    2017-07-01

    We evaluated the learning curve for external cephalic version (ECV) using learning curve-cumulative sum (LC-CUSUM) analysis. This was a retrospective study involving 290 consecutive cases between October 2013 and March 2017. We evaluated the learning curve for ECV on nulli and over para 1 group using LC-CUSUM analysis on the assumption that 50% and 70% of ECV procedures succeeded by description a trend-line of quadratic function with reliable R 2 values. The overall success rate for ECV was 64.8% (188/290), while the success rate for nullipara and over para 1 groups was 56.2% (100/178) and 78.6% (88/112), respectively. 'H' value, that the actual failure rate does not differ from the acceptable failure rate, was -3.27 and -1.635 when considering ECV success rates of 50% and 70%, respectively. Consequently, in order to obtain a consistent 50% success rate, we would require 57 nullipara cases, and in order to obtain a consistent 70% success rate, we would require 130 nullipara cases. In contrast, 8 to 10 over para 1 cases would be required for an expected success rate of 50% and 70% on over para 1 group. Even a relatively inexperienced physician can experience success with multipara and after accumulating experience, they will manage nullipara cases. Further research is required for LC-CUSUM involving several practitioners instead of a single practitioner. This will lead to the gradual implementation of standard learning curve guidelines for ECV.

  2. Rational Arithmetic Mathematica Functions to Evaluate the Two-Sided One Sample K-S Cumulative Sampling Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Randall Brown

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the most widely used goodness-of-fit tests is the two-sided one sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S test which has been implemented by many computer statistical software packages. To calculate a two-sided p value (evaluate the cumulative sampling distribution, these packages use various methods including recursion formulae, limiting distributions, and approximations of unknown accuracy developed over thirty years ago. Based on an extensive literature search for the two-sided one sample K-S test, this paper identifies an exact formula for sample sizes up to 31, six recursion formulae, and one matrix formula that can be used to calculate a p value. To ensure accurate calculation by avoiding catastrophic cancelation and eliminating rounding error, each of these formulae is implemented in rational arithmetic. For the six recursion formulae and the matrix formula, computational experience for sample sizes up to 500 shows that computational times are increasing functions of both the sample size and the number of digits in the numerator and denominator integers of the rational number test statistic. The computational times of the seven formulae vary immensely but the Durbin recursion formula is almost always the fastest. Linear search is used to calculate the inverse of the cumulative sampling distribution (find the confidence interval half-width and tables of calculated half-widths are presented for sample sizes up to 500. Using calculated half-widths as input, computational times for the fastest formula, the Durbin recursion formula, are given for sample sizes up to two thousand.

  3. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  4. The cumulative verification image analysis tool for offline evaluation of portal images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, John; Yan Di; Michalski, Jeff; Graham, Mary; Halverson, Karen; Harms, William; Purdy, James

    1995-01-01

    Purpose: Daily portal images acquired using electronic portal imaging devices contain important information about the setup variation of the individual patient. The data can be used to evaluate the treatment and to derive correction for the individual patient. The large volume of images also require software tools for efficient analysis. This article describes the approach of cumulative verification image analysis (CVIA) specifically designed as an offline tool to extract quantitative information from daily portal images. Methods and Materials: The user interface, image and graphics display, and algorithms of the CVIA tool have been implemented in ANSCI C using the X Window graphics standards. The tool consists of three major components: (a) definition of treatment geometry and anatomical information; (b) registration of portal images with a reference image to determine setup variation; and (c) quantitative analysis of all setup variation measurements. The CVIA tool is not automated. User interaction is required and preferred. Successful alignment of anatomies on portal images at present remains mostly dependent on clinical judgment. Predefined templates of block shapes and anatomies are used for image registration to enhance efficiency, taking advantage of the fact that much of the tool's operation is repeated in the analysis of daily portal images. Results: The CVIA tool is portable and has been implemented on workstations with different operating systems. Analysis of 20 sequential daily portal images can be completed in less than 1 h. The temporal information is used to characterize setup variation in terms of its systematic, random and time-dependent components. The cumulative information is used to derive block overlap isofrequency distributions (BOIDs), which quantify the effective coverage of the prescribed treatment area throughout the course of treatment. Finally, a set of software utilities is available to facilitate feedback of the information for

  5. Evaluating post-disaster ecosystem resilience using MODIS GPP data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Amy E.; Renschler, Chris S.; Miles, Scott B.

    2013-04-01

    An integrated community resilience index (CRI) quantifies the status, exposure, and recovery of the physical, economic, and socio-cultural capital for a specific target community. However, most CRIs do not account for the recovery of ecosystem functioning after extreme events, even though many aspects of a community depend on the services provided by the natural environment. The primary goal of this study was to monitor the recovery of ecosystem functionality (ecological capital) using remote sensing-derived gross primary production (GPP) as an indicator of 'ecosystem-wellness' and assess the effect of resilience of ecological capital on the recovery of a community via an integrated CRI. We developed a measure of ecosystem resilience using remotely sensed GPP data and applied the modeling prototype ResilUS in a pilot study for a four-parish coastal community in southwestern Louisiana, USA that was impacted by Hurricane Rita in 2005. The results illustrate that after such an extreme event, the recovery of ecological capital varies according to land use type and may take many months to return to full functionality. This variable recovery can potentially impact the recovery of certain businesses that rely heavily on ecosystem services such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and tourism.

  6. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. PMID:25394857

  7. Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid

    1998-01-01

    Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

  8. Evaluating stocking efficacy in an ecosystem undergoing oligotrophication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Yu-Chun; Rogers, Mark W.; Bunnell, David B.

    2017-01-01

    Oligotrophication has negatively affected fisheries production in many freshwater ecosystems and could conceivably reduce the efficacy of stockings used to enhance fisheries. In Lake Michigan, offshore oligotrophication has occurred since the 1970s, owing to reductions in total phosphorus (TP) inputs and nearshore sequestration of TP by nonindigenous dreissenid mussels. We evaluated simultaneous effects of stock enhancement and oligotrophication on salmonine species (Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, and steelhead O. mykiss) that support valuable recreational fisheries. We employed a novel application of an Ecopath with Ecosim model by conducting a full factorial simulation experiment. Our design included multiple levels of salmonine stocking, consumption by invasive quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis), and TP that were informed by manager interests. Under all levels of TP and quagga mussel consumption, our results showed that stock enhancement could still increase salmonine biomass, but positive responses were stronger for lake trout and steelhead than Chinook salmon. Simulations showed that quagga mussel consumption has deleterious effects on pelagic-oriented prey fishes and Chinook salmon, which feed almost exclusively on the pelagic-oriented alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). In summary, results from our simulation experiment suggested that lake trout and steelhead are better suited to the current ecosystem than Chinook salmon, and therefore, stock enhancement provides the highest gains for these two species. Furthermore, simulated biomass of all recreational salmonine species increased with increasing TP, indicating the need for managers to consider how potential future oligotrophication will limit the carrying capacity of salmonine biomass in Lake Michigan

  9. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Tudela, Sergi; Palomera, Isabel; Pranovi, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impacts of fishing-i.e., the level of ecosystem overfishing. Here we evaluate the historical and current risk of ecosystem overfishing at a global scale by quantifying the depletion of secondary production using the best available fisheries and ecological data (i.e., catch and primary production). Our results highlight an increasing trend in the number of unsustainable fisheries (i.e., an increase in the risk of ecosystem overfishing) from the 1950s to the 2000s, and illustrate the worldwide geographic expansion of overfishing. These results enable to assess when and where fishing became unsustainable at the ecosystem level. At present, total catch per capita from Large Marine Ecosystems is at least twice the value estimated to ensure fishing at moderate sustainable levels.

  10. Incorporating ecosystem function concept in environmental planning and decision making by means of multi-criteria evaluation: the case-study of Kalloni, Lesbos, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oikonomou, Vera; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Troumbis, Andreas Y

    2011-01-01

    Nature provides life-support services which do not merely constitute the basis for ecosystem integrity but also benefit human societies. The importance of such multiple outputs is often ignored or underestimated in environmental planning and decision making. The economic valuation of ecosystem functions or services has been widely used to make these benefits economically visible and thus address this deficiency. Alternatively, the relative importance of the components of ecosystem value can be identified and compared by means of multi-criteria evaluation. Hereupon, this article proposes a conceptual framework that couples ecosystem function analysis, multi criteria evaluation and social research methodologies for introducing an ecosystem function-based planning and management approach. The framework consists of five steps providing the structure of a participative decision making process which is then tested and ratified, by applying the discrete multi-criteria method NAIADE, in the Kalloni Natura 2000 site, on Lesbos, Greece. Three scenarios were developed and evaluated with regard to their impacts on the different types of ecosystem functions and the social actors' value judgements. A conflict analysis permitted the better elaboration of the different views, outlining the coalitions formed in the local community and shaping the way towards reaching a consensus.

  11. Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to Assess Vegetative Cover and Identify Biotic Resources in Sagebrush Steppe Ecosystems: Preliminary Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert P. Breckenridge

    2006-04-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in conjunction with the University of Idaho, is evaluating novel approaches for using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as a quicker and safer method for monitoring biotic resources. Evaluating vegetative cover is an important factor in understanding the sustainability of many ecosystems. In assessing vegetative cover, methods that improve accuracy and cost efficiency could revolutionize how biotic resources are monitored on western federal lands. Sagebrush steppe ecosystems provide important habitat for a variety of species, some of which are important indicator species (e.g., sage grouse). Improved methods are needed to support monitoring these habitats because there are not enough resource specialists or funds available for comprehensive ground evaluation of these ecosystems. In this project, two types of UAV platforms (fixed wing and helicopter) were used to collect still-frame imagery to assess cover in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. This paper discusses the process for collecting and analyzing imagery from the UAVs to (1) estimate total percent cover, (2) estimate percent cover for six different types of vegetation, and (3) locate sage grouse based on representative decoys. The field plots were located on the INL site west of Idaho Falls, Idaho, in areas with varying amounts and types of vegetative cover. A software program called SamplePoint developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service was used to evaluate the imagery for percent cover for the six vegetation types (bare ground, litter, shrubs, dead shrubs, grasses, and forbs). Results were compared against standard field measurements to assess accuracy.

  12. Recreational Water Contact and Fish Consumption Assessment to Inform Risk Estimates and Evaluate Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Surface waters provide invaluable ecosystem services, including drinking water, food, waste water disposal, and recreation. The nature and frequency of recreational contact with surface waters is a critical consideration in evaluating benefits to human well-being (e.g...

  13. Comparison of a Mass Balance and an Ecosystem Model Approach when Evaluating the Carbon Cycling in a Lake Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Eva; Sobek, Sebastian

    2006-01-01

    Carbon budgets are frequently used in order to understand the pathways of organic matter in ecosystems, and they also have an important function in the risk assessment of harmful substances. We compared two approaches, mass balance calculations and an ecosystem budget, to describe carbon processing in a shallow, oligotrophic hardwater lake. Both approaches come to the same main conclusion, namely that the lake is a net auto trophic ecosystem, in spite of its high dissolved organic carbon and low total phosphorus concentrations. However, there were several differences between the carbon budgets, e.g. in the rate of sedimentation and the air-water flux of CO 2 . The largest uncertainty in the mass balance is the contribution of emergent macrophytes to the carbon cycling of the lake, while the ecosystem budget is very sensitive towards the choice of conversion factors and literature values. While the mass balance calculations produced more robust results, the ecosystem budget gave valuable insights into the pathways of organic matter transfer in the ecosystem. We recommend that when using an ecosystem budget for the risk assessment of harmful substances, mass balance calculations should be performed in parallel in order to increase the robustness of the conclusions

  14. Ecosystem Services Evaluation and Its Spatial Characteristics in Central Asia’s Arid Regions: A Case Study in Altay Prefecture, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Fu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are important foundations to realize the sustainable development of economy and society. The question of how to quantitatively evaluate ecosystem services in a scientific way is a hot topic among international researchers. Studying the spatial characteristics of ecosystem services in arid regions can provide the theoretical and practical basis for coordinating a sustainable man-land relationship. Altay Prefecture of China, a typical arid region in Central Asia, was taken as the study area. It is on the Silk Road economic belt, which is a key region in the program of developing Western China. Three ecosystem services: water yield, soil conservation, and net primary productivity were quantitatively evaluated. The results show that (1 the spatial distribution pattern has a distinct characteristic of zonality; (2 mountain zone and mountain-oasis ecotone are the hotspots of ecosystem services; and (3 the correlation between water yield and net primary productivity shows a gradual increasing trend as altitude decreases. Objective analysis from the aspect of mechanism is given by discussing the causes of this particular pattern. It is found that altitude and slope have great influence on spatial distributions of ecosystem services, zones with the most amount of services are distributed in 1.5–2 km-altitude and 15–25°-slope. Different human activities in different regions and spatial distance decay of ecosystem services also contribute to the formation of spatial pattern. Thus, overgrazing, logging and mining are prohibited in mountain zones and mountain-oasis ecotones. Scholars are encouraged to focus on desert-ecosystem services in the future.

  15. SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research.Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive

  16. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  17. An exposure-effect approach for evaluating ecosystem-wide risks from human activities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knights, A.M.; Piet, G.J.; Jongbloed, R.H.; Tamis, J.E.; Robinson, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is promoted as the solution for sustainable use. An ecosystem-wide assessment methodology is therefore required. In this paper, we present an approach to assess the risk to ecosystem components from human activities common to marine and coastal ecosystems. We build

  18. Evaluating an ecosystem management approach for improving water quality in two contrasting study catchments in south-west England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glendell, Miriam; Brazier, Richard

    2014-05-01

    The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000 established a new emphasis for the management of freshwaters by establishing ecologically-based water quality targets that are to be achieved through holistic, catchment-scale, ecosystem management approaches. However, significant knowledge gaps still exist in the understanding of the cumulative effectiveness of multiple mitigation measures on a number of pollutants at a catchment scale. This research furthers the understanding of the effectiveness of an ecosystem management approach to deliver catchment-scale water quality improvements in two contrasting study catchments in south-west England: the lowland agricultural Aller and the upland semi-natural Horner Water. Characterisation of the spatial variability of soil properties (bulk density, total carbon, nitrogen, C:N ratio, stable isotope δ15N, total, organic and inorganic phosphorus) in the two study catchments demonstrated extensive alteration of soil properties in the agricultural catchment, with likely long-term implications for the restoration of ecosystem functioning and water quality management (Glendell et al., 2014b). Further, the agricultural catchment supported a proportionally greater total fluvial carbon (dissolved and particulate) export than the semi-natural catchment. During an eight month period for which a comparable continuous turbidity record was available, the estimated SS yields from the agricultural catchment (25.5-116.2 t km-2) were higher than from the semi-natural catchment (21.7-57.8 t km-2). In addition, the agricultural catchment exported proportionally more TPC (0.51-2.59 kg mm-1) than the semi-natural catchment (0.36-0.97 kg mm-1) and a similar amount of DOC (0.26-0.52 kg mm-1 in the Aller and 0.24-0.32 kg mm-1 in Horner Water), when normalised by catchment area and total discharge, despite the lower total soil carbon pool, thus indicating an enhanced fluvial loss of sediment and carbon (Glendell and Brazier, in review). Whilst

  19. El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dugand Armando

    1944-03-01

    Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

  20. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  1. 7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

  2. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  3. Measurement of Farmland Ecosystem Services Evaluation in Beidaihe District, Hebei Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Xiao-dan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Farmland ecosystem is an important part of supporting and maintaining earth's life systems. It has the direct function value of providing agricultural product as well as the indirect function values of adjustment, support and culture. Chose the Beidaihe district in Hebei Province as the study region, the eco-system service functions were evaluated by ecological economics approach. The results showed that the indirect value was 1.09 times of the value direct in 2014. The farmland ecosystem not only had direct production function, but also had important ecological supporting functions. In the process of agricultural structure adjustment, the indirect functions should be given enough attention. The sort of values were production function > tourism function > carbon sequestration and oxygen release function > dispose of waste function > water conservation function > social security function > soil protection value > straw returning to field function > clean air function. In the process of accelerating the construction of modern agricultural park, vigorously developing ecological leisure agriculture, pushing forward the comprehensive utilization of crop straw, and actively developing ecological cycle of agriculture, the Beidaihe district should rationally adjust the use of farmland and focus on improving the values of indirect services to optimize service values. The study can be used as decision basis and scientific support for effective protection and sustainable utilization of farmland resources.

  4. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND BEYOND: INTEGRATION OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE AND MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE MODELING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision-making for ecosystem protection and resource management requires an integrative science and technology applied with a sufficiently comprehensive systems approach. Single media (e.g., air, soil and water) approaches that evaluate aspects of an ecosystem in a stressor-by-...

  5. Using benefit indicators to evaluate ecosystem services resulting from restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological restoration can reestablish ecosystem services that provide valuable social and environmental benefits. Final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS) are the goods and services that directly benefit people. Explicitly identifying the people who benefit and characterizing w...

  6. EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diop, D.

    1997-04-01

    EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

  7. The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-06-01

    Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

  8. Towards an integration of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning and food web theory to evaluate relationships between multiple ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hines, Jes; van der Putten, W.H.; De Deyn, G.B.; Wagg, Cameron; Voigt, Winfried; Mulder, Christian; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Engel, Jan; Melian, Carlos; Scheu, Stefan; Birkhofer, Klaus; Ebeling, Anne; Scherber, Christoph; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem responses to changes in species diversity are often studied individually. However, changes in species diversity can simultaneously influence multiple interdependent ecosystem functions. Therefore, an important challenge is to determine when and how changes in species diversity that

  9. Dynamical evaluation of vaginal micro-ecosystem in a Chinese woman with recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Z Q; Zhou, W; Yue, X A; Mu, L Y; Jiang, Y M

    2015-03-30

    We reported a rare case of recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC) in this study. Through dynamic evaluation of the vaginal micro-ecosystem, we found that only depuratory degree, spores, blastospores, and hyphae were specific indicators and the "barometer" of RVVC development. Therefore, an understanding of vaginal micro-ecological changes can help clinicians to improve the treatment of patients with RVVC.

  10. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  11. Cumulative organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction potential of multiple components in salvia miltiorrhiza (danshen) preparations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Venitz, Jürgen; Sweet, Douglas H

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction (DDI) potential for individual active components of Danshen (Salvia miltiorrhiza) vs. combinations using in vitro and in silico approaches. Inhibition profiles for single Danshen components and combinations were generated in stably-expressing human (h)OAT1 and hOAT3 cells. Plasma concentration-time profiles for compounds were estimated from in vivo human data using an i.v. two-compartment model (with first-order elimination). The cumulative DDI index was proposed as an indicator of DDI potential for combination products. This index was used to evaluate the DDI potential for Danshen injectables from 16 different manufacturers and 14 different lots from a single manufacturer. The cumulative DDI index predicted in vivo inhibition potentials, 82% (hOAT1) and 74% (hOAT3), comparable with those observed in vitro, 72 ± 7% (hOAT1) and 81 ± 10% (hOAT3), for Danshen component combinations. Using simulated unbound Cmax values, a wide range in cumulative DDI index between manufacturers, and between lots, was predicted. Many products exhibited a cumulative DDI index > 1 (50% inhibition). Danshen injectables will likely exhibit strong potential to inhibit hOAT1 and hOAT3 function in vivo. The proposed cumulative DDI index might improve prediction of DDI potential of herbal medicines or pharmaceutical preparations containing multiple components.

  12. About the cumulants of periodic signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

    2018-01-01

    This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

  13. Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E; Doan, Stacey N

    2012-01-01

    We tested whether early childhood risk exposures are related to weight gain in adolescence and evaluate an underlying mechanism, self-regulatory behavior, for the risk-obesity link. Cumulative risk exposure to 9 sociodemographic (eg, poverty), physical (eg, substandard housing), and psychosocial (eg, family turmoil) stressors was assessed in 244 nine-year-old children. BMI was calculated at age 9 and then 4 years later. At age 9, children's ability to delay gratification as an index of self-regulatory behavior was assessed. Path analyses were then estimated to evaluate our mediational model (Cumulative risk → Self-regulation → BMI) over a 4-year period in a prospective, longitudinal design. Nine-year-old children exposed to a greater accumulation of multiple risk factors show larger gains in adiposity over the next four year period, net of their initial BMI. These gains in BMI during early adolescence are largely accounted for by deteriorated self-regulatory abilities among children facing more cumulative risks. Early childhood risk exposure leads to larger gains in BMI in adolescence. Given the importance of childhood adiposity to the development of obesity later in life, understanding the underlying mechanisms that link early experience to weight gain is an essential task. Deficiencies in self-regulation in response to chronic stress appears to be an important agent in the obesity epidemic.

  14. Biological indication in aquatic ecosystems. Biological indication in limnic and coastal ecosystems - fundamentals, techniques, methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunkel, G.

    1994-01-01

    Biological methods of water quality evaluation today form an integral part of environmental monitoring and permit to continuously monitor the condition of aquatic ecosystems. They indicate both improvements in water quality following redevelopment measures, and the sometimes insidious deterioration of water quality. This book on biological indication in aquatic ecosystems is a compendium of measurement and evaluation techniques for limnic systems by means of biological parameters. At present, however, an intense discussion of biological evaluation techniques is going on, for one thing as a consequence of the German reunification and the need to unify evaluation techniques, and for another because of harmonizations within the European Community. (orig./EF) [de

  15. Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Olin, Stefan; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

    2017-11-01

    Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and to avoid further emissions from deforestation. However, the acceptance and feasibility of land-based mitigation projects depends on potential side effects on other important ecosystem functions and their services. Here, we use projections of future land use and land cover for different land-based mitigation options from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) and evaluate their effects with a global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). In the land-use models, carbon removal was achieved either via growth of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage, via avoided deforestation and afforestation, or via a combination of both. We compare these scenarios to a reference scenario without land-based mitigation and analyse the LPJ-GUESS simulations with the aim of assessing synergies and trade-offs across a range of ecosystem service indicators: carbon storage, surface albedo, evapotranspiration, water runoff, crop production, nitrogen loss, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds. In our mitigation simulations cumulative carbon storage by year 2099 ranged between 55 and 89 GtC. Other ecosystem service indicators were influenced heterogeneously both positively and negatively, with large variability across regions and land-use scenarios. Avoided deforestation and afforestation led to an increase in evapotranspiration and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and to a decrease in albedo, runoff, and nitrogen loss. Crop production could also decrease in the afforestation scenarios as a result of reduced crop area, especially for MAgPIE land-use patterns, if assumed increases in crop yields cannot be realized. Bioenergy-based climate change mitigation was projected to affect less area globally than in the forest expansion scenarios, and resulted in

  16. Evaluation of the Steel Creek ecosystem in relation to the proposed restart of L reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Sharitz, R.R.; Gladden, J.B.

    1981-10-01

    Information is presented on the following subjects: habitat and vegetation, the avifauna, semi-aquatic and terrestrial vertebrates, and aquatic communities of Steel Creek, species of special concern, and radiocesium in Steel Creek. Two main goals of the study were the compilation of a current inventory of the flora and fauna of the Steel Creek ecosystem and an assessment of the probable impacts of radionuclides, primarily 137 Cs, that were released into Steel Creek during earlier reactor operations. Although a thorough evaluation of the impacts of the L reactor restart is impossible at this time, it is concluded that the effects on the Steel Creek ecosystem will be substantial if no mitigative measures are taken

  17. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  18. Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Correlation Between Monthly Cumulative Auroral Electrojet Indices, DST Index and Interplanetary Electric Field During Magnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Kyung Park

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Magnetospheric substorms occur frequently during magnetic storms, suggesting that the two phenomena are closely associated. We can investigate the relation between magnetospheric substorms and magnetic storms by examining the correlation between AE and Dst indices. For this purpose, we calculated the monthly cumulative AU, |AL| and |Dst| indices. The correlation coefficient between the monthly cumulative |AL| and |Dst| index is found to be 0.60, while that between monthly cumulative AU and |Dst| index is 0.28. This result indicates that substorms seem to contribute to the development of magnetic storms. On the other hand, it has been reported that the interplanetary electric field associated with southward IMF intensifies the magnetospheric convection, which injects charged particles into the inner magnetosphere, thus developing the ring current. To evaluate the contribution of the interplanetary electric field to the development of the storm time ring current belt, we compared the monthly cumulative interplanetary electric field and the monthly cumulative Dst index. The correlation coefficient between the two cumulative indices is 0.83 for southward IMF and 0.39 for northward IMF. It indicates that magnetospheric convection induced by southward IMF is also important in developing magnetic storms. Therefore, both magnetospheric substorm and enhanced magnetospheric convection seem to contribute to the buildup of magnetic storm.

  20. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  1. Mitigation for one & all: An integrated framework for mitigation of development impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tallis, Heather, E-mail: htallis@tnc.org [The Nature Conservancy, 415 Alta Vista Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Kennedy, Christina M., E-mail: ckennedy@tnc.org [The Nature Conservancy, 117 East Mountain Ave., Ft. Collins, CO 80524 (United States); Ruckelshaus, Mary [The Natural Capital Project, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Goldstein, Joshua; Kiesecker, Joseph M. [The Nature Conservancy, 117 East Mountain Ave., Ft. Collins, CO 80524 (United States)

    2015-11-15

    Emerging development policies and lending standards call for consideration of ecosystem services when mitigating impacts from development, yet little guidance exists to inform this process. Here we propose a comprehensive framework for advancing both biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation. We have clarified a means for choosing representative ecosystem service targets alongside biodiversity targets, identified servicesheds as a useful spatial unit for assessing ecosystem service avoidance, impact, and offset options, and discuss methods for consistent calculation of biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation ratios. We emphasize the need to move away from area- and habitat-based assessment methods for both biodiversity and ecosystem services towards functional assessments at landscape or seascape scales. Such comprehensive assessments more accurately reflect cumulative impacts and variation in environmental quality, social needs and value preferences. The integrated framework builds on the experience of biodiversity mitigation while addressing the unique opportunities and challenges presented by ecosystem service mitigation. These advances contribute to growing potential for economic development planning and execution that will minimize impacts on nature and maximize human wellbeing. - Highlights: • This is the first framework for biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation. • Functional, landscape scale assessments are ideal for avoidance and offsets. • Servicesheds define the appropriate spatial extent for ecosystem service mitigation. • Mitigation ratios should be calculated consistently and based on standard factors. • Our framework meets the needs of integrated mitigation assessment requirements.

  2. Mitigation for one & all: An integrated framework for mitigation of development impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tallis, Heather; Kennedy, Christina M.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Goldstein, Joshua; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

    2015-01-01

    Emerging development policies and lending standards call for consideration of ecosystem services when mitigating impacts from development, yet little guidance exists to inform this process. Here we propose a comprehensive framework for advancing both biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation. We have clarified a means for choosing representative ecosystem service targets alongside biodiversity targets, identified servicesheds as a useful spatial unit for assessing ecosystem service avoidance, impact, and offset options, and discuss methods for consistent calculation of biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation ratios. We emphasize the need to move away from area- and habitat-based assessment methods for both biodiversity and ecosystem services towards functional assessments at landscape or seascape scales. Such comprehensive assessments more accurately reflect cumulative impacts and variation in environmental quality, social needs and value preferences. The integrated framework builds on the experience of biodiversity mitigation while addressing the unique opportunities and challenges presented by ecosystem service mitigation. These advances contribute to growing potential for economic development planning and execution that will minimize impacts on nature and maximize human wellbeing. - Highlights: • This is the first framework for biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation. • Functional, landscape scale assessments are ideal for avoidance and offsets. • Servicesheds define the appropriate spatial extent for ecosystem service mitigation. • Mitigation ratios should be calculated consistently and based on standard factors. • Our framework meets the needs of integrated mitigation assessment requirements

  3. Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Germán; Nosetto, Marcelo D; Aragón, Roxana; Aversa, Fernando; Paruelo, José M; Jobbágy, Esteban G

    2008-09-03

    In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR "Normalized Difference Vegetation Index" (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the "Eastern Paraguay" and "Uruguay River margins" focal regions, the

  4. Evaluation of mangrove ecosystem service functions of Ximen Island Marine Specially Protected Areas in Yueqing Bay, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D. G.; Sun, L.; Tan, Y. H.; Shi, A. Q.; Cheng, J.

    2017-08-01

    Taking the mangrove ecosystem of Ximen Island National Marine Specially Protected Areas as the research object, the ecological service value of the mangrove forest was evaluated and analyzed using a market value method, an ecological value method and a carbon tax method. The results showed that the ecosystem service value of the mangrove forest on Ximen Island is worth a total of 16,104,000 CNY/a. Among the value of individual ecosystem services, the direct value of material production function and leisure function reached 1,385,000 CNY/a, with a ratio of 8.6%. The indirect value of disturbance regulation, gas regulation, water purification, habitat function and culture research reached 14,719,000 CNY/a, with a ratio of 91.4%. Among the above sub-items, the proportion of disturbance regulation value, habitat function value and cultural research function value reached 78.8%, which reflects the important scientific value and ecological value of the Ximen Island mangrove ecosystem, especially its vital importance in providing a habitat for birds and playing a role in disaster prevention and mitigation.

  5. Beaver-mediated lateral hydrologic connectivity, fluvial carbon and nutrient flux, and aquatic ecosystem metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegener, Pam; Covino, Tim; Wohl, Ellen

    2017-06-01

    River networks that drain mountain landscapes alternate between narrow and wide valley segments. Within the wide segments, beaver activity can facilitate the development and maintenance of complex, multithread planform. Because the narrow segments have limited ability to retain water, carbon, and nutrients, the wide, multithread segments are likely important locations of retention. We evaluated hydrologic dynamics, nutrient flux, and aquatic ecosystem metabolism along two adjacent segments of a river network in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado: (1) a wide, multithread segment with beaver activity; and, (2) an adjacent (directly upstream) narrow, single-thread segment without beaver activity. We used a mass balance approach to determine the water, carbon, and nutrient source-sink behavior of each river segment across a range of flows. While the single-thread segment was consistently a source of water, carbon, and nitrogen, the beaver impacted multithread segment exhibited variable source-sink dynamics as a function of flow. Specifically, the multithread segment was a sink for water, carbon, and nutrients during high flows, and subsequently became a source as flows decreased. Shifts in river-floodplain hydrologic connectivity across flows related to higher and more variable aquatic ecosystem metabolism rates along the multithread relative to the single-thread segment. Our data suggest that beaver activity in wide valleys can create a physically complex hydrologic environment that can enhance hydrologic and biogeochemical buffering, and promote high rates of aquatic ecosystem metabolism. Given the widespread removal of beaver, determining the cumulative effects of these changes is a critical next step in restoring function in altered river networks.

  6. Improving ecosystem-scale modeling of evapotranspiration using ecological mechanisms that account for compensatory responses following disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, David J.; Ewers, Brent E.; Mackay, D. Scott; Peckham, Scott; Reed, David E.; Sekoni, Adewale

    2017-09-01

    Mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America have led to extensive forest mortality, justifiably generating interest in improving our understanding of how this type of ecological disturbance affects hydrological cycles. While observational studies and simulations have been used to elucidate the effects of mountain beetle mortality on hydrological fluxes, an ecologically mechanistic model of forest evapotranspiration (ET) evaluated against field data has yet to be developed. In this work, we use the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to incorporate the ecohydrological impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on ET for a lodgepole pine-dominated forest equipped with an eddy covariance tower. An existing degree-day model was incorporated that predicted the life cycle of mountain pine beetles, along with an empirically derived submodel that allowed sap flux to decline as a function of temperature-dependent blue stain fungal growth. The eddy covariance footprint was divided into multiple cohorts for multiple growing seasons, including representations of recently attacked trees and the compensatory effects of regenerating understory, using two different spatial scaling methods. Our results showed that using a multiple cohort approach matched eddy covariance-measured ecosystem-scale ET fluxes well, and showed improved performance compared to model simulations assuming a binary framework of only areas of live and dead overstory. Cumulative growing season ecosystem-scale ET fluxes were 8 - 29% greater using the multicohort approach during years in which beetle attacks occurred, highlighting the importance of including compensatory ecological mechanism in ET models.

  7. High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

    2017-10-01

    We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

  8. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  9. Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

    1984-01-01

    Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

  10. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Nancy B.; Groffman, Peter M; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Tallis, Heather

    2016-01-01

    The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

  11. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2005-01-01

    cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

  12. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  13. Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

    2015-01-01

    The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats...

  14. A comparison of community and trophic structure in five marine ecosystems based on energy budgets and system metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaichas, Sarah; Skaret, Georg; Falk-Petersen, Jannike; Link, Jason S.; Overholtz, William; Megrey, Bernard A.; Gjøsæter, Harald; Stockhausen, William T.; Dommasnes, Are; Friedland, Kevin D.; Aydin, Kerim

    2009-04-01

    Energy budget models for five marine ecosystems were compared to identify differences and similarities in trophic and community structure. We examined the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the combined Norwegian/Barents Seas in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Comparable energy budgets were constructed for each ecosystem by aggregating information for similar species groups into consistent functional groups. Several ecosystem indices (e.g., functional group production, consumption and biomass ratios, cumulative biomass, food web macrodescriptors, and network metrics) were compared for each ecosystem. The comparative approach clearly identified data gaps for each ecosystem, an important outcome of this work. Commonalities across the ecosystems included overall high primary production and energy flow at low trophic levels, high production and consumption by carnivorous zooplankton, and similar proportions of apex predator to lower trophic level biomass. Major differences included distinct biomass ratios of pelagic to demersal fish, ranging from highest in the combined Norwegian/Barents ecosystem to lowest in the Alaskan systems, and notable differences in primary production per unit area, highest in the Alaskan and Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine ecosystems, and lowest in the Norwegian ecosystems. While comparing a disparate group of organisms across a wide range of marine ecosystems is challenging, this work demonstrates that standardized metrics both elucidate properties common to marine ecosystems and identify key distinctions useful for fisheries management.

  15. Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

    1997-01-01

    This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

  16. REE and Isotopic Compositions of Lunar Basalts Demonstrate Partial Melting of Hybridized Mantle Sources after Cumulate Overturn is Required

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dygert, N. J.; Liang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Lunar basalts maintain an important record of the composition of the lunar interior. Much of our understanding of the Moon's early evolution comes from studying their petrogenesis. Recent experimental work has advanced our knowledge of major and trace element fractionation during lunar magma ocean (LMO) crystallization [e.g., 1-3], which produced heterogeneous basalt sources in the Moon's mantle. With the new experimental constraints, we can evaluate isotopic and trace element signatures in lunar basalts in unprecedented detail, refining inferences about the Moon's dynamic history. Two petrogenetic models are invoked to explain the compositions of the basalts. The assimilation model argues they formed as primitive melts of early LMO cumulates that assimilated late LMO cumulates as they migrated upward. The cumulate overturn model argues that dense LMO cumulates sank into the lunar interior, producing hybridized sources that melted to form the basalts. Here we compare predicted Ce/Yb and Hf and Nd isotopes of partial melts of LMO cumulates with measured compositions of lunar basalts to evaluate whether they could have formed by end-member petrogenetic models. LMO crystallization models suggest all LMO cumulates have chondrite normalized Ce/Yb 1.5; these could not have formed by assimilation of any LMO cumulate or residual liquid (or KREEP basalt, which has isotopically negative ɛNd and ɛHf). In contrast, basalt REE patterns and isotopes can easily be modeled assuming partial melting of hybridized mantle sources, indicating overturn may be required. A chemical requirement for overturn independently confirms that late LMO cumulates are sufficiently low in viscosity to sink into the lunar interior, as suggested by recent rock deformation experiments [4]. Overturned, low viscosity late LMO cumulates would be relatively stable around the core [5]. High Ce/Yb basalts require that overturned cumulates were mixed back into the overlying mantle by convection within a few

  17. Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

  18. Accounting for ecosystem services in life cycle assessment, Part I: a critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Singh, Shweta; Bakshi, Bhavik R

    2010-04-01

    If life cycle oriented methods are to encourage sustainable development, they must account for the role of ecosystem goods and services, since these form the basis of planetary activities and human well-being. This article reviews methods that are relevant to accounting for the role of nature and that could be integrated into life cycle oriented approaches. These include methods developed by ecologists for quantifying ecosystem services, by ecological economists for monetary valuation, and life cycle methods such as conventional life cycle assessment, thermodynamic methods for resource accounting such as exergy and emergy analysis, variations of the ecological footprint approach, and human appropriation of net primary productivity. Each approach has its strengths: economic methods are able to quantify the value of cultural services; LCA considers emissions and assesses their impact; emergy accounts for supporting services in terms of cumulative exergy; and ecological footprint is intuitively appealing and considers biocapacity. However, no method is able to consider all the ecosystem services, often due to the desire to aggregate all resources in terms of a single unit. This review shows that comprehensive accounting for ecosystem services in LCA requires greater integration among existing methods, hierarchical schemes for interpreting results via multiple levels of aggregation, and greater understanding of the role of ecosystems in supporting human activities. These present many research opportunities that must be addressed to meet the challenges of sustainability.

  19. Citizen Science as a Tool for Conservation in Residential Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caren B. Cooper

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Human activities, such as mining, forestry, and agriculture, strongly influence processes in natural systems. Because conservation has focused on managing and protecting wildlands, research has focused on understanding the indirect influence of these human activities on wildlands. Although a conservation focus on wildlands is critically important, the concept of residential area as an ecosystem is relatively new, and little is known about the potential of such areas to contribute to the conservation of biodiversity. As urban sprawl increases, it becomes urgent to construct a method to research and improve the impacts of management strategies for residential landscapes. If the cumulative activities of individual property owners could help conserve biodiversity, then residential matrix management could become a critical piece of the conservation puzzle. "Citizen science" is a method of integrating public outreach and scientific data collection locally, regionally, and across large geographic scales. By involving citizen participants directly in monitoring and active management of residential lands, citizen science can generate powerful matrix management efforts, defying the "tyranny of small decisions" and leading to positive, cumulative, and measurable impacts on biodiversity.

  20. SU-E-J-106: The Use of Deformable Image Registration with Cone-Beam CT for a Better Evaluation of Cumulative Dose to Organs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fillion, O; Gingras, L; Archambault, L [Universite Laval, Quebec, Quebec (Canada); Centre de recherche du CHU de Quebec, Quebec, Quebec (Canada); Centre de recherche sur le cancer, Quebec, Quebec (Canada)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The knowledge of dose accumulation in the patient tissues in radiotherapy helps in determining the treatment outcomes. This project aims at providing a workflow to map cumulative doses that takes into account interfraction organ motion without the need for manual re-contouring. Methods: Five prostate cancer patients were studied. Each patient had a planning CT (pCT) and 5 to 13 CBCT scans. On each series, a physician contoured the prostate, rectum, bladder, seminal vesicles and the intestine. First, a deformable image registration (DIR) of the pCTs onto the daily CBCTs yielded registered CTs (rCT) . This rCT combined the accurate CT numbers of the pCT with the daily anatomy of the CBCT. Second, the original plans (220 cGy per fraction for 25 fractions) were copied on the rCT for dose re-calculation. Third, the DIR software Elastix was used to find the inverse transform from the rCT to the pCT. This transformation was then applied to the rCT dose grid to map the dose voxels back to their pCT location. Finally, the sum of these deformed dose grids for each patient was applied on the pCT to calculate the actual dose delivered to organs. Results: The discrepancy between the planned D98 and D2 and these indices re-calculated on the rCT, are, on average, of −1 ± 1 cGy and 1 ± 2 cGy per fraction, respectively. For fractions with large anatomical motion, the D98 discrepancy on the re-calculated dose grid mapped onto the pCT can raise to −17 ± 4 cGy. The obtained cumulative dose distributions illustrate the same behavior. Conclusion: This approach allowed the evaluation of cumulative doses to organs with the help of uncontoured daily CBCT scans. With this workflow, the easy evaluation of doses delivered for EBRT treatments could ultimately lead to a better follow-up of prostate cancer patients.

  1. SU-E-J-106: The Use of Deformable Image Registration with Cone-Beam CT for a Better Evaluation of Cumulative Dose to Organs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fillion, O; Gingras, L; Archambault, L

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The knowledge of dose accumulation in the patient tissues in radiotherapy helps in determining the treatment outcomes. This project aims at providing a workflow to map cumulative doses that takes into account interfraction organ motion without the need for manual re-contouring. Methods: Five prostate cancer patients were studied. Each patient had a planning CT (pCT) and 5 to 13 CBCT scans. On each series, a physician contoured the prostate, rectum, bladder, seminal vesicles and the intestine. First, a deformable image registration (DIR) of the pCTs onto the daily CBCTs yielded registered CTs (rCT) . This rCT combined the accurate CT numbers of the pCT with the daily anatomy of the CBCT. Second, the original plans (220 cGy per fraction for 25 fractions) were copied on the rCT for dose re-calculation. Third, the DIR software Elastix was used to find the inverse transform from the rCT to the pCT. This transformation was then applied to the rCT dose grid to map the dose voxels back to their pCT location. Finally, the sum of these deformed dose grids for each patient was applied on the pCT to calculate the actual dose delivered to organs. Results: The discrepancy between the planned D98 and D2 and these indices re-calculated on the rCT, are, on average, of −1 ± 1 cGy and 1 ± 2 cGy per fraction, respectively. For fractions with large anatomical motion, the D98 discrepancy on the re-calculated dose grid mapped onto the pCT can raise to −17 ± 4 cGy. The obtained cumulative dose distributions illustrate the same behavior. Conclusion: This approach allowed the evaluation of cumulative doses to organs with the help of uncontoured daily CBCT scans. With this workflow, the easy evaluation of doses delivered for EBRT treatments could ultimately lead to a better follow-up of prostate cancer patients

  2. Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

  3. The river ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Descy, J.P.; Lambinon, J.

    1984-01-01

    From the standpoint of the ecologist, a river is an ecosystem characterized by its biocoenosis, in dynamic equilibrium with the abiotic environment. This ecosystem can be envisaged at the structural level by examining its physical, chemical and biological properties, together with the relationships existing between these compartments. The biocoenotic structure of a river is relatively complex: it manifests, among other specific features, the presence of plankton communities which show marked space-time variations. The function of the river ecosystem can be approximated by a study of the relationships between the biotic and abiotic components: primary production, secondary production, recycling of organic matter, etc. Lotic environments are subject to frequent disturbance from various forms of man-made pollution: organic pollution, eutrophization, thermal pollution, mineral pollution, contamination by organic and mineral micropollutants, as well as by radionuclides, mechanical pollution and physical degradation. The biocoenotic effects of these forms of pollution may be evaluated, in particular, using biological indicators (bioindicators): these are either able to show the overall impact of the pollution on the biocoenosis or else they permit the detection and evaluation of certain pollutant forms. (author)

  4. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems provides data and information on the extent and classification of ecosystems circa 2000, including coastal,...

  5. [Ecosystem services valuation of Qinghai Lake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Lu; Ouyang, Zhi-yun

    2015-10-01

    Qinghai Lake is the largest inland and salt water lake in China, and provides important ecosystem services to beneficiaries. Economic valuation of wetland ecosystem services from Qinghai Lake can reveal the direct contribution of lake ecosystems to beneficiaries using economic data, which can advance the incorporation of wetland protection of Qinghai Lake into economic tradeoffs and decision analyses. In this paper, we established a final ecosystem services valuation system based on the underlying ecological mechanisms and regional socio-economic conditions. We then evaluated the eco-economic value provided by the wetlands at Qinghai Lake to beneficiaries in 2012 using the market value method, replacement cost method, zonal travel cost method, and contingent valuation method. According to the valuation result, the total economic values of the final ecosystem services provided by the wetlands at Qinghai Lake were estimated to be 6749.08 x 10(8) yuan RMB in 2012, among which the value of water storage service and climate regulation service were 4797.57 x 10(8) and 1929.34 x 10(8) yuan RMB, accounting for 71.1% and 28.6% of the total value, respectively. The economic value of the 8 final ecosystem services was ranked from greatest to lowest as: water storage service > climate regulation service > recreation and tourism service > non-use value > oxygen release service > raw material production service > carbon sequestration service > food production service. The evaluation result of this paper reflects the substantial value that the wetlands of Qinghai Lake provide to beneficiaries using monetary values, which has the potential to help increase wetland protection awareness among the public and decision-makers, and inform managers about ways to create ecological compensation incentives. The final ecosystem service evaluation system presented in this paper will offer guidance on separating intermediate services and final services, and establishing monitoring programs for

  6. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  7. Quantitative Evaluation of Ecosystem Health in a Karst Area of South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengzi Chen

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to propose a GIS-based mechanism for diagnosing karst rocky desertification (KRD ecosystem health. Using the Huajiang Demonstration Area in Guizhou Province as a case study, this research offers a multi-factor indicator system for diagnosing KRD ecosystem health. A set of geologic, environmental, and socio-economic health indicators were developed based on remote sensing images from field-investigation, hydrological, and meteorological monitoring data. With the use of grid GIS technology, this study gives an indicator for diagnosing the spatial expression of desertification at a 5 m × 5 m grid scale. Using spatial overlaying technology based on grid data, the temporal and spatial dynamics of ecosystem health in the Huajiang Demonstration Area were tracked over a 10 year time span. The results of the analysis indicate that ecosystem health in the Huajiang Demonstration Area varies regionally, and has overall improved over time. The proportion of healthy area increased from 3.7% in 2000 to 8.2% in 2010. However, unhealthy and middle-health areas still accounted for 78.7% of the total area by 2010. The most obvious improvement of ecosystem health was in an area where comprehensive control measures for curbing KRD were implemented. These results suggest that comprehensive control of KRD can effectively mitigate ecosystem deterioration and improve ecosystem health in karst regions of South China.

  8. Aquatic ecosystem protection and restoration: Advances in methods for assessment and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bain, M.B.; Harig, A.L.; Loucks, D.P.; Goforth, R.R.; Mills, K.E.

    2000-01-01

    Many methods and criteria are available to assess aquatic ecosystems, and this review focuses on a set that demonstrates advancements from community analyses to methods spanning large spatial and temporal scales. Basic methods have been extended by incorporating taxa sensitivity to different forms of stress, adding measures linked to system function, synthesizing multiple faunal groups, integrating biological and physical attributes, spanning large spatial scales, and enabling simulations through time. These tools can be customized to meet the needs of a particular assessment and ecosystem. Two case studies are presented to show how new methods were applied at the ecosystem scale for achieving practical management goals. One case used an assessment of biotic structure to demonstrate how enhanced river flows can improve habitat conditions and restore a diverse fish fauna reflective of a healthy riverine ecosystem. In the second case, multitaxonomic integrity indicators were successful in distinguishing lake ecosystems that were disturbed, healthy, and in the process of restoration. Most methods strive to address the concept of biological integrity and assessment effectiveness often can be impeded by the lack of more specific ecosystem management objectives. Scientific and policy explorations are needed to define new ways for designating a healthy system so as to allow specification of precise quality criteria that will promote further development of ecosystem analysis tools.

  9. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Cain, O.; Gray, W.M.

    1977-01-01

    Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) represents a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Computer calculations have been used to simplify the evaluation of problems associated with the applications of the CRE-system in radiotherapy. In a general appraisal of the applications of computers to the CRE-system, the various problems encountered in clinical radiotherapy have been categorised into those involving the evaluation of a CRE at a point in tissue and those involving the calculation of CRE distributions. As a general guide, the computer techniques adopted at the Glasgow Institute of Radiotherapeutics for the solution of CRE problems are presented, and consist basically of a package of three interactive programs for point CRE calculations and a Fortran program which calculates CRE distributions for iso-effect treatment planning. Many examples are given to demonstrate the applications of these programs, and special emphasis has been laid on the problem of treating a point in tissue with different doses per fraction on alternate treatment days. The wide range of possible clinical applications of the CRE-system has been outlined and described under the categories of routine clinical applications, retrospective and prospective surveys of patient treatment, and experimental and theoretical research. Some of these applications such as the results of surveys and studies of time optimisation of treatment schedules could have far-reaching consequences and lead to significant improvements in treatment and cure rates with the minimum damage to normal tissue. (author)

  10. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Gray, W.M.; Watson, E.R.

    1977-01-01

    In five previous papers, the concept of Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) has been presented as a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Simple nomographic and tabular methods for the solution of practical problems in radiotherapy are now described. An essential feature of solving a CRE problem is firstly to present it in a concise and readily appreciated form, and, to do this, nomenclature has been introduced to describe schedules and regimes as compactly as possible. Simple algebraic equations have been derived to describe the CRE achieved by multi-schedule regimes. In these equations, the equivalence conditions existing at the junctions between schedules are not explicit and the equations are based on the CREs of the constituent schedules assessed individually without reference to their context in the regime as a whole. This independent evaluation of CREs for each schedule has resulted in a considerable simplification in the calculation of complex problems. The calculations are further simplified by the use of suitable tables and nomograms, so that the mathematics involved is reduced to simple arithmetical operations which require at the most the use of a slide rule but can be done by hand. The order of procedure in the presentation and calculation of CRE problems can be summarised in an evaluation procedure sheet. The resulting simple methods for solving practical problems of any complexity on the CRE-system are demonstrated by a number of examples. (author)

  11. Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Seastedt, Timothy; Fagre, Daniel B.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Tomback, Diana; Garcia, Elizabeth; Bowen, Zachary H.; Logan, Jesse A.

    2013-01-01

    In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

  12. Comparison of cumulative false-positive risk of screening mammography in the United States and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Katja Kemp

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the United States (US), about one-half of women screened with annual mammography have at least one false-positive test after ten screens. The estimate for European women screened ten times biennially is much lower. We evaluate to what extent screening interval, mammogram type......=400,204), between 1991-2012 and 1993-2013, respectively. Model-based cumulative false-positive risks were computed for the entire sample, using two statistical methods (Hubbard Njor) previously used to estimate false-positive risks in the US and Europe. RESULTS: Empirical cumulative risk of at least...... one false-positive test after eight (annual or biennial) screens was 41.9% in BCSC, 16.1% in Copenhagen, and 7.4% in Funen. Variation in screening interval and mammogram type did not explain the differences by country. Using the Hubbard method, the model-based cumulative risks after eight screens...

  13. Evaluation of the Ecosystem Services of Inland Waters in the Slovak Republic - To Date Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bujnovský Radoslav

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services (ES (goods and services represent the outputs of natural systems from which people can have benefits. Evaluation of the benefits resulting from ES of inland waters or the benefits, which are lost when the necessary measures are not implemented, is one of the methods of evaluating the external costs of environmental damage - environmental and resource costs. Evaluation of ES is based on the CICES classification v. 4.3, which defines provision, regulation/ maintenance and cultural services. In the assessment of ES also enters groundwater, although in comparison with surface waters in lesser extent. At present, the evaluation is performed at the level of sub-basins of the Slovak Republic. In this paper, evaluation of selected ES is presented. Use of evaluation in practice is also discussed.

  14. Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

  15. Evaluating the Collaborative Ecosystem for an Innovation-Driven Economy: A Systems Analysis and Case Study of Science Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Ren Yan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available National policies for science parks and innovation have been identified as one of the major driving forces for the innovation-driven economy, especially for publicly funded science parks. To investigate this collaborative ecosystem (government-academia-industry for growth and sustainable development, this paper proposes a nation-wide economic impact analysis of science parks and innovation policy based on historical data drawn from one of the globally recognized high-technology industrial clusters in Taiwan. Systems thinking with causal loop analysis are adopted to improve our understanding of the collaborative ecosystem with science park policies. First, from a holistic viewpoint, the role of government in a science parks and innovation ecosystem is reviewed. A systems analysis of an innovation-driven economy with a science park policy is presented as a strategy map for policy implementers. Second, the added economic value and employment of the benchmarked science parks is evaluated from a long range perspective. Third, the concepts of government-academia-industry collaboration and policies to innovation ecosystem are introduced while addressing the measures and performance of innovation and applied R&D in the science parks. We conclude with a discussion of lessons learned and the policy implications of science park development and an innovation ecosystem.

  16. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Suwa, Haruhiko

    2013-01-01

    Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

  17. An evaluation of the ecological and environmental security on China's terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongqi; Xu, Erqi

    2017-04-11

    With rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization, various ecological and environmental problems occur, which threaten and undermine the sustainable development and domestic survival of China. On the national scale, our progress remains in a state of qualitative or semi-quantitative evaluation, lacking a quantitative evaluation and a spatial visualization of ecological and environmental security. This study collected 14 indictors of water, land, air, and biodiversity securities to compile a spatial evaluation of ecological and environmental security in terrestrial ecosystems of China. With area-weighted normalization and scaling transformations, the veto aggregation (focusing on the limit indicator) and balanced aggregation (measuring balanced performance among different indicators) methods were used to aggregate security evaluation indicators. Results showed that water, land, air, and biodiversity securities presented different spatial distributions. A relatively serious ecological and environmental security crisis was found in China, but presented an obviously spatial variation of security evaluation scores. Hotspot areas at the danger level, which are scattered throughout the entirety of the country, were identified. The spatial diversities and causes of ecological and environmental problems in different regions were analyzed. Spatial integration of regional development and proposals for improving the ecological and environmental security were put forward.

  18. Using Fuzzy Probability Weights in Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.

  19. Evaluation of atmospheric aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Min

    The increasing human activities have produced large amounts of air pollutants ejected into the atmosphere, in which atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered to be especially important because of their negative impacts on human health and their impacts on global climate through either their direct radiative effect or indirect effect on land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This dissertation dedicates to quantifying and evaluating the aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem dynamics using a modeling approach. An ecosystem model, the integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (iTem), is developed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. A two-broad-band atmospheric radiative transfer model together with the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured atmospheric parameters are used to well estimate global downward solar radiation and the direct and diffuse components in comparison with observations. The atmospheric radiative transfer modeling framework were used to quantify the aerosol direct radiative effect, showing that aerosol loadings cause 18.7 and 12.8 W m -2 decrease of direct-beam Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) and Near Infrared Radiation (NIR) respectively, and 5.2 and 4.4 W m -2 increase of diffuse PAR and NIR, respectively, leading to a total 21.9 W m-2 decrease of total downward solar radiation over the global land surface during the period of 2003-2010. The results also suggested that the aerosol effect may be overwhelmed by clouds because of the stronger extinction and scattering ability of clouds. Applications of the iTem with solar radiation data and with or without considering the aerosol loadings shows that aerosol loading enhances the terrestrial productions [Gross Primary Production (GPP), Net Primary Production (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)] and carbon emissions through plant respiration (RA) in global terrestrial ecosystems over the

  20. Cumulative childhood trauma and psychological maladjustment of sexually abused children in Korea: mediating effects of emotion regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ji Young; Oh, Kyung Ja

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to identify the mediating effects of emotion regulation on the association between cumulative childhood trauma and behavior problems in sexually abused children in Korea, using structural equation modeling (SEM). Data were collected on 171 children (ages 6-13 years) referred to a public counseling center for sexual abuse in Seoul, Korea. Cumulative childhood traumas were defined on the basis of number of traumas (physical abuse, witnessing domestic violence, neglect, traumatic separation from parent, and sexual abuse) and the severity and duration of traumas. Children were evaluated by their parents on emotion regulation using the Emotion Regulation Checklist and internalizing and externalizing behavior problems using the Korean-Child Behavior Checklist. SEM analyses confirmed the complete mediation model, in which emotion dysregulation fully mediates the relationship between cumulative childhood traumas and internalizing/externalizing behavior problems. These findings indicate that emotion regulation is an important mechanism that can explain the negative effects of cumulative childhood traumas and that there is a need to focus on emotion regulation in sexually abused children exposed to cumulative trauma. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Chapter Four : Towards an Integration of Biodiversity–Ecosystem Functioning and Food Web Theory to Evaluate Relationships between Multiple Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hines, J.; Putten, van der W.H.; Deyn, de G.B.; Wagg, C.; Voigt, W.; Mulder, C.; Weisser, W.W.; Engel, J.; Melian, C.; Scheu, S.; Birkhofer, K.; Ebeling, A.; Scherber, C.; Eisenhauer, N.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem responses to changes in species diversity are often studied individually. However, changes in species diversity can simultaneously influence multiple interdependent ecosystem functions. Therefore, an important challenge is to determine when and how changes in species diversity that

  2. Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilioli, G; Schrader, G; Baker, R H A; Ceglarska, E; Kertész, V K; Lövei, G; Navajas, M; Rossi, V; Tramontini, S; van Lenteren, J C

    2014-01-15

    The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis. © 2013.

  3. Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

    2011-01-01

    The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

  4. A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Min-Tsai Lai

    Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

  5. Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

    2010-03-01

    This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of

  6. Trade-offs in ecosystem services and varying stakeholder preferences: evaluating conflicts, obstacles, and opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth King

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In efforts to increase human well-being while maintaining the natural systems and processes upon which we depend, navigating the trade-offs that can arise between different ecosystem services is a profound challenge. We evaluated a recently developed simple analytic framework for assessing ecosystem service trade-offs, which characterizes such trade-offs in terms of their underlying biophysical constraints as well as divergences in stakeholders' values for the services in question. Through a workshop and subsequent discussions, we identified four different types of challenging situations under which the framework allows important insights to clarify the nature of stakeholder conflicts, obstacles to promoting more sustainable outcomes, and potential enabling factors to promote efficiency and sustainability of ecosystem service yields. We illustrated the framework's analytical steps by applying them to case studies representing three of the challenging situations. We explored the fourth challenging situation conceptually, using published literature for examples. We examined the potential utility and feasibility of using the framework as a participatory tool in resource management and conflict resolution. We concluded that the framework can be instrumental for promoting pluralism and insightful analysis of trade-offs. The insights offered here may be viewed as hypotheses to be tested and refined as additional unforeseen challenges and benefits are revealed as the framework is put into practice.

  7. Evaluation of water conservation capacity of loess plateau typical mountain ecosystems based on InVEST model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xizhi; Zuo, Zhongguo; Xiao, Peiqing

    2017-06-01

    With increasing demand for water resources and frequently a general deterioration of local water resources, water conservation by forests has received considerable attention in recent years. To evaluate water conservation capacities of different forest ecosystems in mountainous areas of Loess Plateau, the landscape of forests was divided into 18 types in Loess Plateau. Under the consideration of the factors such as climate, topography, plant, soil and land use, the water conservation of the forest ecosystems was estimated by means of InVEST model. The result showed that 486417.7 hm2 forests in typical mountain areas were divided into 18 forest types, and the total water conservation quantity was 1.64×1012m3, equaling an average of water conversation quantity of 9.09×1010m3. There is a great difference in average water conversation capacity among various forest types. The water conservation function and its evaluation is crucial and complicated issues in the study of ecological service function in modern times.

  8. Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

    2011-01-01

    We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

  9. A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

    2004-01-01

    Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach

  10. Evaluating the role of river-floodplain connectivity in providing beneficial hydrologic services in mountain landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covino, T. P.; Wegener, P.; Weiss, T.; Wohl, E.; Rhoades, C.

    2017-12-01

    River networks of mountain landscapes tend to be dominated by steep, valley-confined channels that have limited floodplain area and low hydrologic buffering capacity. Interspersed between the narrow segments are wide, low-gradient segments where extensive floodplains, wetlands, and riparian areas can develop. Although they tend to be limited in their frequency relative to the narrow valley segments, the low-gradient, wide portions of mountain channel networks can be particularly important to hydrologic buffering and can be sites of high nutrient retention and ecosystem productivity. Hydrologic buffering along the wide valley segments is dependent on lateral hydrologic connectivity between the river and floodplain, however these connections have been increasingly severed as a result of various land and water management practices. We evaluated the role of river-floodplain connectivity in influencing water, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and nutrient flux in river networks of the Colorado Rockies. We found that disconnected segments with limited floodplain/riparian area had limited buffering capacity, while connected segments exhibited variable source-sink dynamics as a function of flow. Specifically, connected segments were typically a sink for water, DOC, and nutrients during high flows, and subsequently became a source as flows decreased. Shifts in river-floodplain hydrologic connectivity across flows related to higher and more variable aquatic ecosystem metabolism rates along connected relative to disconnected segments. Our data suggest that lateral hydrologic connectivity in wide valleys can enhance hydrologic and biogeochemical buffering, and promote high rates of aquatic ecosystem metabolism. While hydrologic disconnection in one river-floodplain system is unlikely to influence water resources at larger scales, the cumulative effects of widespread disconnection may be substantial. Because intact river-floodplain (i.e., connected) systems provide numerous

  11. Measuring conditions and trends in ecosystem services at multiple scales: the Southern African Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (SAfMA) experience

    OpenAIRE

    van Jaarsveld, A.S; Biggs, R; Scholes, R.J; Bohensky, E; Reyers, B; Lynam, T; Musvoto, C; Fabricius, C

    2005-01-01

    The Southern African Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (SAfMA) evaluated the relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales, ranging from local through to sub-continental. Trends in ecosystem services (fresh water, food, fuel-wood, cultural and biodiversity) over the period 1990-2000 were mixed across scales. Freshwater resources appear strained across the continent with large numbers of people not securing adequate supplies, especially of good quality water. T...

  12. Changes in autumn vegetation dormancy onset date and the climate controls across temperate ecosystems in China from 1982 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuting; Guan, Huade; Shen, Miaogen; Liang, Wei; Jiang, Lei

    2015-02-01

    Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Synthesis report: program ecosystems, transport, pollutions, 1998 - 2001; Rapport de synthese: programme ecosystemes, transport, pollutions, 1998 - 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Etchelecou, A; Deletraz, G; Elichegaray, Ch

    2001-04-01

    The ''Ecosystems, Transports, Pollution Program'' ETP Program, has been elaborated to evaluate the road pollution impacts on the mountain ecosystems. Four mountains valleys have been chosen: two in Alps (Chamonix and Maurienne) and two in Pyrenees (Biriatou and Vallee d'Aspe). This Program presents six objectives: the road traffic characterization, the pollutants emission estimation, the pollutants concentrations in the air, the pollutants dispersion according to relief, the relationships between pollutants emissions and bio-monitoring, the road pollution effects on nearby ecosystems. (A.L.B.)

  14. Predicting Ecosystem Alliances Using Landscape Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shruti Satsangi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous articles in the TIM Review have covered various aspects of the concept of business ecosystems, from the types of ecosystems to keystone strategy, to different member roles and value co-creation. While there is no dearth of suggested best practices that organizations should follow as ecosystem members, it can be difficult to apply these insights into actionable steps for them to take. This is especially true when the ecosystem members already have a prior history of cooperation or competition with each other, as opposed to where a new ecosystem is created. Landscape theory, a political science approach to predicting coalition formation and strategic alliances, can be a useful complement to ecosystems studies by providing a tool to evaluate the best possible alliance options for an organization, given information about itself and the other companies in the system. As shown in the case study of mobile device manufacturers choosing platform providers in the mobile ecosystem, this tool is highly flexible and customizable, with more data providing a more accurate view of the alliances in the ecosystem. At the same time, with even basic parameters, companies can glean significant information about which coalitions will best serve their interest and overall standing within the ecosystem. This article shows the synergies between landscape theory and an ecosystems approach and offers a practical, actionable way in which to analyze individual member benefits.

  15. Land use impact evaluation in life cycle assessment based on ecosystem thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagendorp, Tim; Gulinck, Hubert; Coppin, Pol; Muys, Bart

    2006-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of products with a major part of their life cycle in biological production systems (i.e. forestry and agriculture) are often incomplete because the assessment of the land use impact is not operational. Most method proposals include the quality of the land in a descriptive way using rank scores for an arbitrarily selected set of indicators. This paper first offers a theoretical framework for the selection of suitable indicators for land use impact assessment, based on ecosystem thermodynamics. According to recent theories on the thermodynamics of open systems, a goal function of ecosystems is to maximize the dissipation of exogenic exergy fluxes by maximizing the internal exergy storage under form of biomass, biodiversity and complex trophical networks. Human impact may decrease this ecosystem exergy level by simplification, i.e. decreasing biomass and destroying internal complexity. Within this theoretical framework, we then studied possibilities for assessing the land use impact in a more direct way by measuring the ecosystems' capacity to dissipate solar exergy. Measuring ecosystem thermal characteristics by using remote sensing techniques was considered a promising tool. Once operational, it could offer a quick and cheap alternative to quantify land use impacts in any terrestrial ecosystem of any size. Recommendations are given for further exploration of this method and for its integration into an ISO compatible LCA framework

  16. Ecosystem variability in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Arny L.; Day, Robert H.; Gall, Adrian E.; Aerts, Lisanne A. M.; Delarue, Julien; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.; Hopcroft, Russell R.; Questel, Jennifer M.; Weingartner, Thomas J.; Wisdom, Sheyna S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding influences of cumulative effects from multiple stressors in marine ecosystems requires an understanding of the sources for and scales of variability. A multidisciplinary ecosystem study in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea during 2008-2013 investigated the variability of the study area's two adjacent sub-ecosystems: a pelagic system influenced by interannual and/or seasonal temporal variation at large, oceanographic (regional) scales, and a benthic-associated system more influenced by small-scale spatial variations. Variability in zooplankton communities reflected interannual oceanographic differences in waters advected northward from the Bering Sea, whereas variation in benthic communities was associated with seafloor and bottom-water characteristics. Variations in the planktivorous seabird community were correlated with prey distributions, whereas interaction effects in ANOVA for walruses were related to declines of sea-ice. Long-term shifts in seabird distributions were also related to changes in sea-ice distributions that led to more open water. Although characteristics of the lower trophic-level animals within sub-ecosystems result from oceanographic variations and interactions with seafloor topography, distributions of apex predators were related to sea-ice as a feeding platform (walruses) or to its absence (i.e., open water) for feeding (seabirds). The stability of prey resources appears to be a key factor in mediating predator interactions with other ocean characteristics. Seabirds reliant on highly-variable zooplankton prey show long-term changes as open water increases, whereas walruses taking benthic prey in biomass hotspots respond to sea-ice changes in the short-term. A better understanding of how variability scales up from prey to predators and how prey resource stability (including how critical prey respond to environmental changes over space and time) might be altered by climate and anthropogenic stressors is essential to

  17. Cumulants in perturbation expansions for non-equilibrium field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauser, R.

    1995-11-01

    The formulation of perturbation expansions for a quantum field theory of strongly interacting systems in a general non-equilibrium state is discussed. Non-vanishing initial correlations are included in the formulation of the perturbation expansion in terms of cumulants. The cumulants are shown to be the suitable candidate for summing up the perturbation expansion. Also a linked-cluster theorem for the perturbation series with cumulants is presented. Finally a generating functional of the perturbation series with initial correlations is studied. We apply the methods to a simple model of a fermion-boson system. (orig.)

  18. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  19. Correlation of cumulative corticosteroid treatment with magnetic resonance imaging assessment of avascular femoral head necrosis in patients with multiple sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilufer Kale

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Increased risk of osteoporosis, fractures, and avascular necrosis (AVN has been suggested in multiple sclerosis (MS. Patients with MS are often exposed to corticosteroid treatment (CST during the disease course and conflicting reports exist regarding complications of CST. Our study aims to investigate the association between cumulative doses of CST and radiographic evaluation of AVN of the femoral head in MS. Twenty-six MS patients (mean age, 38.4±10 yr were enrolled and prospectively evaluated for AVN by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. The mean disease duration was 11.5±8.5 years and mean expanded disability status scale (EDSS score was 3±2. The cumulative dosage of CST varied between 20 g and 60 g; patients were grouped into two categories: 1 CST between 20-40 g, 17 (65% patients; 2 CST ≥40 g; 9 (35% patients. The relationship between cumulative CST dosage and MRI diagnosis of AVN was stat­istically insignificant (P>0.9. Clarification of the cumulative effect of CST in the development of AVN is of great importance for future long-term steroid treatment strategies.

  20. Water Use Efficiency of China's Terrestrial Ecosystems and Responses to Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Xiao, J.; Ju, W.; Zhou, Y.; Wang, S.; Wu, X.

    2015-12-01

    Yibo Liu1, 2, Jingfeng Xiao2, Weimin Ju3, Yanlian Zhou4, Shaoqiang Wang5, Xiaocui Wu31 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China, 2Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA, 3 International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China, 4 School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China, 5 Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China's terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg-1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. "Turning-points" were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme drought reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate

  1. Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

  2. Synthesis report: program ecosystems, transport, pollutions, 1998 - 2001; Rapport de synthese: programme ecosystemes, transport, pollutions, 1998 - 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Etchelecou, A.; Deletraz, G.; Elichegaray, Ch

    2001-04-01

    The ''Ecosystems, Transports, Pollution Program'' ETP Program, has been elaborated to evaluate the road pollution impacts on the mountain ecosystems. Four mountains valleys have been chosen: two in Alps (Chamonix and Maurienne) and two in Pyrenees (Biriatou and Vallee d'Aspe). This Program presents six objectives: the road traffic characterization, the pollutants emission estimation, the pollutants concentrations in the air, the pollutants dispersion according to relief, the relationships between pollutants emissions and bio-monitoring, the road pollution effects on nearby ecosystems. (A.L.B.)

  3. Trophodynamic indicators for an ecosystem approach to fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cury, P. M.; Shannon, L. J.; Roux, J. P.

    2005-01-01

    Acknowledging ecological interactions, such as predation, is key to an ecosystem approach to fisheries. Trophodynamic indicators are needed to measure the strength of the interactions between the different living components, and of structural ecosystem changes resulting from exploitation. We review...... appear to be conservative, because they respond slowly to large structural changes in an ecosystem. Application of the selected indicators to other marine ecosystems is encouraged so as to evaluate fully their usefulness to an ecosystem approach to fisheries, and to establish international comparability......, trophic level of the catch, fishing-in-balance, and mixed trophic impact) were selected because of their ability to reveal ecosystem-level patterns, and because they match published criteria. This suite of indicators is applied to the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems, and their performance...

  4. Pimp your landscape: a tool for qualitative evaluation of the effects of regional planning measures on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fürst, Christine; Volk, Martin; Pietzsch, Katrin; Makeschin, Franz

    2010-12-01

    The article presents the platform "Pimp your landscape" (PYL), which aims firstly at the support of planners by simulating alternative land-use scenarios and by an evaluation of benefits or risks for regionally important ecosystem services. Second, PYL supports an integration of information on environmental and landscape conditions into impact assessment. Third, PYL supports the integration of impacts of planning measures on ecosystem services. PYL is a modified 2-D cellular automaton with GIS features. The cells have the major attribute "land-use type" and can be supplemented with additional information, such as specifics regarding geology, topography and climate. The GIS features support the delineation of non-cellular infrastructural elements, such as roads or water bodies. An evaluation matrix represents the core element of the system. In this matrix, values in a relative scale from 0 (lowest value) to 100 (highest value) are assigned to the land-use types and infrastructural elements depending on their effect on ecosystem services. The option to configure rules for describing the impact of environmental attributes and proximity effects on cell values and land-use transition probabilities is of particular importance. User interface and usage of the platform are demonstrated by an application case. Constraints and limits of the recent version are discussed, including the need to consider in the evaluation, landscape-structure aspects such as patch size, fragmentation and spatial connectivity. Regarding the further development, it is planned to include the impact of land management practices to support climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in regional planning.

  5. Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

  6. Consumer-driven nutrient dynamics in freshwater ecosystems: from individuals to ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Carla L; Capps, Krista A; Rugenski, Amanda T; Vanni, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    The role of animals in modulating nutrient cycling [hereafter, consumer-driven nutrient dynamics (CND)] has been accepted as an important influence on both community structure and ecosystem function in aquatic systems. Yet there is great variability in the influence of CND across species and ecosystems, and the causes of this variation are not well understood. Here, we review and synthesize the mechanisms behind CND in fresh waters. We reviewed 131 articles on CND published between 1973 and 1 June 2015. The rate of new publications in CND has increased from 1.4 papers per year during 1973-2002 to 7.3 per year during 2003-2015. The majority of investigations are in North America with many concentrating on fish. More recent studies have focused on animal-mediated nutrient excretion rates relative to nutrient demand and indirect impacts (e.g. decomposition). We identified several mechanisms that influence CND across levels of biological organization. Factors affecting the stoichiometric plasticity of consumers, including body size, feeding history and ontogeny, play an important role in determining the impact of individual consumers on nutrient dynamics and underlie the stoichiometry of CND across time and space. The abiotic characteristics of an ecosystem affect the net impact of consumers on ecosystem processes by influencing consumer metabolic processes (e.g. consumption and excretion/egestion rates), non-CND supply of nutrients and ecosystem nutrient demand. Furthermore, the transformation and transport of elements by populations and communities of consumers also influences the flow of energy and nutrients across ecosystem boundaries. This review highlights that shifts in community composition or biomass of consumers and eco-evolutionary underpinnings can have strong effects on the functional role of consumers in ecosystem processes, yet these are relatively unexplored aspects of CND. Future research should evaluate the value of using species traits and abiotic

  7. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  8. Risk and markets for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendor, Todd K; Riggsbee, J Adam; Doyle, Martin

    2011-12-15

    Market-based environmental regulations (e.g., cap and trade, "payments for ecosystem services") are increasingly common. However, few detailed studies of operating ecosystem markets have lent understanding to how such policies affect incentive structures for improving environmental quality. The largest U.S. market stems from the Clean Water Act provisions requiring ecosystem restoration to offset aquatic ecosystems damaged during development. We describe and test how variations in the rules governing this ecosystem market shift risk between regulators and entrepreneurs to promote ecological restoration. We analyze extensive national scale data to assess how two critical aspects of market structure - (a) the geographic scale of markets and (b) policies dictating the release of credits - affect the willingness of entrepreneurs to enter specific markets and produce credits. We find no discernible relationship between policies attempting to ease market entry and either the number of individual producers or total credits produced. Rather, market entry is primarily related to regional geography (the prevalence of aquatic ecosystems) and regional economic growth. Any improvements to policies governing ecosystem markets require explicit evaluation of the interplay between policy and risk elements affecting both regulators and entrepreneurial credit providers. Our findings extend to emerging, regulated ecosystem markets, including proposed carbon offset mechanisms, biodiversity banking, and water quality trading programs.

  9. [Ecosystem service value and its aplication in evaluation of eco-economic harmonious development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian-zhai; Li, Bo; Zhang, Xin-shi

    2007-11-01

    Based on the data of land use/cover and by using eco-economic harmony index (EEH) this paper studied the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem service value on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, and evaluated the harmony degree of eco-economic development in the region. The results showed that the total ecosystem service value on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains was increased from 319.93 x 10(8) yuan in 1989 to 321.26 x 10(8) yuan in 2000, with a net increment of 0.42%. The regional eco-economic development was overall at a low harmony level, being higher in eastern part than in middle and western parts, among which, eight counties had a positive value of EEH and their eco-economic development was harmonious, while seven counties had a negative value of EEH and their eco-economic development was inharmonic. The eco-economic development in the region was at the margin of harmony, and thus, more attention should be paid to strengthen the protection of eco-environment and promote the harmonious development of eco-economy to have a sustainable development.

  10. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  11. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  12. Uncertainty analysis technique of dynamic response and cumulative damage properties of piping system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Kohei; Aoki, Shigeru; Hara, Fumio; Hanaoka, Masaaki; Yamashita, Tadashi.

    1982-01-01

    It is a technologically important subject to establish the method of uncertainty analysis statistically examining the variation of the earthquake response and damage properties of equipment and piping system due to the change of input load and the parameters of structural system, for evaluating the aseismatic capability and dynamic structural reliability of these systems. The uncertainty in the response and damage properties when equipment and piping system are subjected to excessive vibration load is mainly dependent on the irregularity of acting input load such as the unsteady vibration of earthquakes, and structural uncertainty in forms and dimensions. This study is the basic one to establish the method for evaluating the uncertainty in the cumulative damage property at the time of resonant vibration of piping system due to the disperse of structural parameters with a simple model. First, the piping models with simple form were broken by resonant vibration, and the uncertainty in the cumulative damage property was evaluated. Next, the response analysis using an elasto-plastic mechanics model was performed by numerical simulation. Finally, the method of uncertainty analysis for response and damage properties by the perturbation method utilizing equivalent linearization was proposed, and its propriety was proved. (Kako, I.)

  13. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  14. Simulating the net ecosystem CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Li, Longhui; Ceschia, Eric; Wattenbach, Martin; Bernhofer, Christian; Emmel, Carmen; Grünwald, Thomas; Jans, Wilma; Loubet, Benjamin; Wu, Xiuchen

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, efforts have been carried on to develop and evaluate versions of global terrestrial ecosystem models (GTEM) in which crop specificities are represented. The goal of this study is to evaluate the ability of the ORCHIDEE-STICS (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic

  15. Modelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; François, Louis; Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Minet, Julien; Tychon, Bernard; Heinesch, Bernard; Horemans, Joanna; Deckmyn, Gaby

    2015-04-01

    Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe.

  16. An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

    2013-01-01

    Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

  17. Climate-dependence of ecosystem services in a nature reserve in northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jiaohui; Song, Huali; Zhang, Yiran; Li, Yanran; Liu, Jian

    2018-01-01

    Evaluation of ecosystem services has become a hotspot in terms of research focus, but uncertainties over appropriate methods remain. Evaluation can be based on the unit price of services (services value method) or the unit price of the area (area value method). The former takes meteorological factors into account, while the latter does not. This study uses Kunyu Mountain Nature Reserve as a study site at which to test the effects of climate on the ecosystem services. Measured data and remote sensing imagery processed in a geographic information system were combined to evaluate gas regulation and soil conservation, and the influence of meteorological factors on ecosystem services. Results were used to analyze the appropriateness of the area value method. Our results show that the value of ecosystem services is significantly affected by meteorological factors, especially precipitation. Use of the area value method (which ignores the impacts of meteorological factors) could considerably impede the accuracy of ecosystem services evaluation. Results were also compared with the valuation obtained using the modified equivalent value factor (MEVF) method, which is a modified area value method that considers changes in meteorological conditions. We found that MEVF still underestimates the value of ecosystem services, although it can reflect to some extent the annual variation in meteorological factors. Our findings contribute to increasing the accuracy of evaluation of ecosystem services.

  18. Working group 7: Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheyen, R.

    1976-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the environmental impact of nuclear power plants. The effects of ionizing radiations, of the thermal and chemical pollution on aquatic ecosystems as well as on terrestrial ecosystems have been estimated. After a general survey of such effects and their interaction, practical conclusions in regard to determined areas such as Meuse-Escaut marine and the coast have been drawn. The contamination effects of food chains have been evaluted under deliberately pessimistic conditions with regard to the choice of the radionuclide as well as of concentration factors. Following the biodegradation conditions of the surface waters, criteria for the quality of the aquatic ecosystems have been established. Finally, attention has been paid on certain factors affecting the site selection especially within the frame of the nature conservation. The effects of cooling towers have been also considered. (G.C.)

  19. A new framework to evaluate ecosystem health: a case study in the Wei River basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Xu, Zongxue; Zhan, Chesheng; Yin, Xuwang; Yu, Songyan

    2015-07-01

    Due to the rapid growth of the population and the development of economies in the Guanzhong district, central China, the river ecosystem is gradually deteriorating, which makes it important to assess the aquatic ecosystem health and take measures to restore the damaged ecosystem. An index of catchment ecosystem health has been developed to assist large-scale management of watersheds by providing an integrated measure of ecosystem health, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem. Most researches focus on aquatic ecosystem or terrestrial ecosystem, but little research integrates both of them to assess the catchment ecosystem health. In this paper, we combine these two aspects into catchment ecosystem health. Ecosystem indicators derived from field samples and modeling are identified to integrate into ecosystem health. These included indicators of ecological landscape pattern (based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation cover, dominance index, Shannon's diversity index, Shannon's evenness index, and fragmentation index), hydrology regime (based on 33 hydrological parameters), physical form condition (based on substrate, habitat complexity, velocity/depth regimes, bank stability, channel alteration), water quality (based on electrical conductivity (Cond), dissolved oxygen (DO), NH3_N, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand-permanganate (CODMn)), and biological quality (based on fish abundance). The index of ecosystem health is applied in the Guanzhong district, and the ecosystem health was fair. The ecosystem health in the upstream to Linjiacun (U-L) and Linjiacun to Weijiabao (L-W) reaches was in good situation, while that in Weijiabao to Xianyang (W-X), Xianyang-Weijiabao (X-W), and Weijiabao to Tongguan (W-T) reaches was in fair situation. There is a trend that the ecosystem health in the upstream was better than that in the downstream. The ecosystem health assessment is expected to play a key role in future

  20. Toward a social-ecological theory of forest macrosystems for improved ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleindl, William J.; Stoy, Paul C.; Binford, Michael W.; Desai, Ankur R.; Dietze, Michael C.; Schultz, Courtney A.; Starr, Gregory; Staudhammer, Christina; Wood, David J. A.

    2018-01-01

    The implications of cumulative land-use decisions and shifting climate on forests, require us to integrate our understanding of ecosystems, markets, policy, and resource management into a social-ecological system. Humans play a central role in macrosystem dynamics, which complicates ecological theories that do not explicitly include human interactions. These dynamics also impact ecological services and related markets, which challenges economic theory. Here, we use two forest macroscale management initiatives to develop a theoretical understanding of how management interacts with ecological functions and services at these scales and how the multiple large-scale management goals work either in consort or conflict with other forest functions and services. We suggest that calling upon theories developed for organismal ecology, ecosystem ecology, and ecological economics adds to our understanding of social-ecological macrosystems. To initiate progress, we propose future research questions to add rigor to macrosystem-scale studies: (1) What are the ecosystem functions that operate at macroscales, their necessary structural components, and how do we observe them? (2) How do systems at one scale respond if altered at another scale? (3) How do we both effectively measure these components and interactions, and communicate that information in a meaningful manner for policy and management across different scales?

  1. Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

    2014-12-16

    Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

  2. Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornwall, Christopher E; Eddy, Tyler D

    2015-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Non-Gaussian wave packet dynamics in anharmonic potential: Cumulant expansion treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toutounji, Mohamad

    2015-01-01

    This manuscript utilizes cumulant expansion as an alternative algebraic approach to evaluating integrals and solving a system of nonlinear differential equations for probing anharmonic dynamics in condensed phase systems using Morse oscillator. These integrals and differential equations become harder to solve as the anharmonicity of the system goes beyond that of Morse oscillator description. This algebraic approach becomes critically important in case of Morse oscillator as it tends to exhibit divergent dynamics and numerical uncertainties at low temperatures. The autocorrelation function is calculated algebraically and compared to the exact one for they match perfectly. It is also compared to the approximate autocorrelation function using the differential equations technique reported in Toutounji (2014) for weak and strong electron–phonon coupling cases. It is found that the present cumulant method is more efficient, and easier to use, than the exact expression. Deviation between the approximate autocorrelation function and the exact autocorrelation function starts to arise as the electron–phonon coupling strength increases. The autocorrelation function obtained using cumulants identically matches the exact autocorrelation function, thereby surpassing the approach presented in Toutounji (2014). The advantage of the present methodology is its applicability to various types of electron–phonon coupling cases. Additionally, the herein approach only uses algebraic techniques, thereby avoiding both the divergence integral and solving a set of linear first- and second-order partial differential equations as was done in previous work. Model calculations are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the herein work

  4. Cumulative nucleon production in 3Hep- and 3Hp interactions at momenta of colliding nuclei 5 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdullin, S.K.; Blinov, A.V.; Vanyushin, I.A.

    1989-01-01

    Inclusive cross sections of cumulative protons produced in 3 Hep- and 3 Hp-interactions under momenta of colliding 5 GeV/c nuclei are investigated. Experimental material is obtained using liquid-hydrogen ITEP chamber-80cm. Under the cumulative proton kinetic energy, exceeding 50 MeV inclusive cross section ratio σ( 3 Hep→pX)/σ( 3 Hp→pX)=1.6±0.1. Within the same energy interval evaluation of yield ratio of cumulative protons and neutrons, produced in 3 Hep -interactions, leads to ∼ 1.6 value. Asymmetry of mean multiple protons escaping forward and backward both in 3 Hep -and in 3 Hp interactions is observed. Averaged invariant distribution functions for cumulative protons and neutrons in 8 Hep-interactions and protons in 3 Hp-interactions are constructed (the averaging is performed within 90-180 deg and 120-180 deg intervals). To temperatures of such distributions are found. 43 refs.; 1 fig

  5. Dynamical implications of bi-directional resource exchange within a meta-ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Marisabel Rodriguez; Kopp, Darin; Allen, Daniel; Kang, Yun

    2018-05-05

    The exchange of resources across ecosystem boundaries can have large impacts on ecosystem structures and functions at local and regional scales. In this article, we develop a simple model to investigate dynamical implications of bi-directional resource exchanges between two local ecosystems in a meta-ecosystem framework. In our model, we assume that (1) Each local ecosystem acts as both a resource donor and recipient, such that one ecosystem donating resources to another results in a cost to the donating system and a benefit to the recipient; and (2) The costs and benefits of the bi-directional resource exchange between two ecosystems are correlated in a nonlinear fashion. Our model could apply to the resource interactions between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that are supported by the literature. Our theoretical results show that bi-directional resource exchange between two ecosystems can indeed generate complicated dynamical outcomes, including the coupled ecosystems having amensalistic, antagonistic, competitive, or mutualistic interactions, with multiple alternative stable states depending on the relative costs and benefits. In addition, if the relative cost for resource exchange for an ecosystem is decreased or the relative benefit for resource exchange for an ecosystem is increased, the production of that ecosystem would increase; however, depending on the local environment, the production of the other ecosystem may increase or decrease. We expect that our work, by evaluating the potential outcomes of resource exchange theoretically, can facilitate empirical evaluations and advance the understanding of spatial ecosystem ecology where resource exchanges occur in varied ecosystems through a complicated network. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Experimental assessment of ecosystem services in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandhu, Harpinder; Porter, John Roy; Wratten, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the resources and processes supplied by natural ecosystems which benefit humankind (for example, pollination of crops by insects, or water filtration by wetlands). They underpin life on earth, provide major inputs to many economic sectors and support our lifestyles. Agricul......Ecosystem services are the resources and processes supplied by natural ecosystems which benefit humankind (for example, pollination of crops by insects, or water filtration by wetlands). They underpin life on earth, provide major inputs to many economic sectors and support our lifestyles....... Agricultural and urban areas are by far the largest users of ecosystems and their services and (for the first time) this book explores the role that ecosystem services play in these managed environments. The book also explores methods of evaluating ecosystem services, and discusses how these services can...... be maintained and enhanced in our farmlands and cities. This book will be useful to students and researchers from a variety of fields, including applied ecology, environmental economics, agriculture and forestry, and also to local and regional planners and policy makers....

  7. Improved visual function in IDDM patients with unchanged cumulative incidence of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossing, K; Jacobsen, P; Rossing, P

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends in visual acuity and the cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy in a clinic-based observational follow-up study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All patients visiting Hvidore Hospital in 1984 whose diagnosis of IDDM had been made before 41 years of age and between...

  8. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Coll, M; Libralato, S; Tutela, S; Palomera, I; Pranovi, F.

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impac...

  9. Managing regional cumulative effects of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaling, H.; Zwier, J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper demonstrates an approach to regional cumulative effects management using the case of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. The 17 existing, approved, or planned projects, all concentrated in a relatively small region, pose significant challenges for conducting and reviewing cumulative effects assessment (CEA) on a project-by-project basis. In response, stakeholders have initiated a regional cumulative effects management system that is among the first such initiatives anywhere. Advantages of this system include (1) more efficient gathering and sharing of information, including a common regional database, (2) setting acceptable regional environmental thresholds for all projects, (3) collaborative assessment of similar cumulative effects from related projects, (4) co-ordinated regulatory review and approval process for overlapping CEAs, and (5) institutional empowerment from a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy administered by a public authority. This case provides a model for integrating project-based CEA with regional management of cumulative effects. (author)

  10. Ecological Economic Evaluation Based on Emergy as Embodied Cosmic Exergy: A Historical Study for the Beijing Urban Ecosystem 1978–2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Mei Ming

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available For ecological economic evaluation based on the unified biophysical matrix this research illustrates an updated emergy synthesis in terms of embodied cosmic exergy instead of embodied solar energy, which successes the foundation of systems ecological theory but changes the starting point for the estimation from simply the sun to the cosmos. According to the modified definition implicating explicit scarcity and strict additivity based on the fundamental thermodynamics laws, the updated emergy approach overcomes the confusable and intractable deficiencies of traditional one and shows firmer theoretical basis as well as better applicability. As a case study for the regional socio-economic ecosystem, a cosmic emergy based ecological economic evaluation of the Beijing urban ecosystem during the period 1978-2004 is presented. The local and external resources supporting the concerned ecosystem are accounted and analyzed in a common unit, i.e., cosmic Joule, according to which a series of indicators are applied to reveal its evolutional characteristics through five aspects as emergy structure, emergy intensity, emergy welfare, environmental impacts, and degree of exploitation and economic efficiency. During the analyzed period, the major emergy source sustaining the operation of the ecosystem had changed from the renewable resources exploited locally to the nonrenewable resources purchased from outside. Emergy intensity for the Beijing urban ecosystem kept rising owing to the continuous investment of resources, which not only improved the living standard but also intensified the environmental pressure. Moreover, the increase of exploitation degree was accompanied with the decline of economic efficiency, while the rising emergy investment ratio implicates that Beijing was at the risks of resources shortage and high dependence on external resources

  11. Ecosystem services provided by bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Thomas H; Braun de Torrez, Elizabeth; Bauer, Dana; Lobova, Tatyana; Fleming, Theodore H

    2011-03-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits obtained from the environment that increase human well-being. Economic valuation is conducted by measuring the human welfare gains or losses that result from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Bats have long been postulated to play important roles in arthropod suppression, seed dispersal, and pollination; however, only recently have these ecosystem services begun to be thoroughly evaluated. Here, we review the available literature on the ecological and economic impact of ecosystem services provided by bats. We describe dietary preferences, foraging behaviors, adaptations, and phylogenetic histories of insectivorous, frugivorous, and nectarivorous bats worldwide in the context of their respective ecosystem services. For each trophic ensemble, we discuss the consequences of these ecological interactions on both natural and agricultural systems. Throughout this review, we highlight the research needed to fully determine the ecosystem services in question. Finally, we provide a comprehensive overview of economic valuation of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, few studies estimating the economic value of ecosystem services provided by bats have been conducted to date; however, we outline a framework that could be used in future studies to more fully address this question. Consumptive goods provided by bats, such as food and guano, are often exchanged in markets where the market price indicates an economic value. Nonmarket valuation methods can be used to estimate the economic value of nonconsumptive services, including inputs to agricultural production and recreational activities. Information on the ecological and economic value of ecosystem services provided by bats can be used to inform decisions regarding where and when to protect or restore bat populations and associated habitats, as well as to improve public perception of bats. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  12. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  13. Alternative states of a semiarid grassland ecosystem: implications for ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark E.; Belote, R. Travis; Bowker, Matthew A.; Garman, Steven L.

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystems can shift between alternative states characterized by persistent differences in structure, function, and capacity to provide ecosystem services valued by society. We examined empirical evidence for alternative states in a semiarid grassland ecosystem where topographic complexity and contrasting management regimes have led to spatial variations in levels of livestock grazing. Using an inventory data set, we found that plots (n = 72) cluster into three groups corresponding to generalized alternative states identified in an a priori conceptual model. One cluster (biocrust) is notable for high coverage of a biological soil crust functional group in addition to vascular plants. Another (grass-bare) lacks biological crust but retains perennial grasses at levels similar to the biocrust cluster. A third (annualized-bare) is dominated by invasive annual plants. Occurrence of grass-bare and annualized-bare conditions in areas where livestock have been excluded for over 30 years demonstrates the persistence of these states. Significant differences among all three clusters were found for percent bare ground, percent total live cover, and functional group richness. Using data for vegetation structure and soil erodibility, we also found large among-cluster differences in average levels of dust emissions predicted by a wind-erosion model. Predicted emissions were highest for the annualized-bare cluster and lowest for the biocrust cluster, which was characterized by zero or minimal emissions even under conditions of extreme wind. Results illustrate potential trade-offs among ecosystem services including livestock production, soil retention, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation. Improved understanding of these trade-offs may assist ecosystem managers when evaluating alternative management strategies.

  14. Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

    2008-11-01

    The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

  15. On the usefulness of ecosystem services evaluations

    OpenAIRE

    Belmontes, J. A.; López Pintor, A.; Rodríguez, M. A.; Gómez-Sal, A.

    1997-01-01

    A ground breaking paper by COSTANZA et al. published in Nature this year has led to an intense debate about the potential, and convenience of making economical valuations of the services provided by ecosystems. This debate has been encouraged by the journal, by giving Internet free access to the paper, as well as by the International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE) and the Communications for a Sustainable Future (CSF) who had co-exponsored an Online Forum offering the possibility to s...

  16. Drought resistance across California ecosystems: Evaluating changes in carbon dynamics using satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Sparkle; Tulbure, Mirela; Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Assal, Timothy J.; Bremer, Leah; Drucker, Debora; Hillis, Vicken; Varela, Sara; Goulden, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Drought is a global issue that is exacerbated by climate change and increasing anthropogenic water demands. The recent occurrence of drought in California provides an important opportunity to examine drought response across ecosystem classes (forests, shrublands, grasslands, and wetlands), which is essential to understand how climate influences ecosystem structure and function. We quantified ecosystem resistance to drought by comparing changes in satellite-derived estimates of water-use efficiency (WUE = net primary productivity [NPP]/evapotranspiration [ET]) under normal (i.e., baseline) and drought conditions (ΔWUE = WUE2014 − baseline WUE). With this method, areas with increasing WUE under drought conditions are considered more resilient than systems with declining WUE. Baseline WUE varied across California (0.08 to 3.85 g C/mm H2O) and WUE generally increased under severe drought conditions in 2014. Strong correlations between ΔWUE, precipitation, and leaf area index (LAI) indicate that ecosystems with a lower average LAI (i.e., grasslands) also had greater C-uptake rates when water was limiting and higher rates of carbon-uptake efficiency (CUE = NPP/LAI) under drought conditions. We also found that systems with a baseline WUE ≤ 0.4 exhibited a decline in WUE under drought conditions, suggesting that a baseline WUE ≤ 0.4 might be indicative of low drought resistance. Drought severity, precipitation, and WUE were identified as important drivers of shifts in ecosystem classes over the study period. These findings have important implications for understanding climate change effects on primary productivity and C sequestration across ecosystems and how this may influence ecosystem resistance in the future.

  17. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

  18. Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

  19. Ecosystem services capacity across heterogeneous forest types: understanding the interactions and suggesting pathways for sustaining multiple ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamgir, Mohammed; Turton, Stephen M; Macgregor, Colin J; Pert, Petina L

    2016-10-01

    As ecosystem services supply from tropical forests is declining due to deforestation and forest degradation, much effort is essential to sustain ecosystem services supply from tropical forested landscapes, because tropical forests provide the largest flow of multiple ecosystem services among the terrestrial ecosystems. In order to sustain multiple ecosystem services, understanding ecosystem services capacity across heterogeneous forest types and identifying certain ecosystem services that could be managed to leverage positive effects across the wider bundle of ecosystem services are required. We sampled three forest types, tropical rainforests, sclerophyll forests, and rehabilitated plantation forests, over an area of 32,000m(2) from Wet Tropics bioregion, Australia, aiming to compare supply and evaluate interactions and patterns of eight ecosystem services (global climate regulation, air quality regulation, erosion regulation, nutrient regulation, cyclone protection, habitat provision, energy provision, and timber provision). On average, multiple ecosystem services were highest in the rainforests, lowest in sclerophyll forests, and intermediate in rehabilitated plantation forests. However, a wide variation was apparent among the plots across the three forest types. Global climate regulation service had a synergistic impact on the supply of multiple ecosystem services, while nutrient regulation service was found to have a trade-off impact. Considering multiple ecosystem services, most of the rehabilitated plantation forest plots shared the same ordination space with rainforest plots in the ordination analysis, indicating that rehabilitated plantation forests may supply certain ecosystem services nearly equivalent to rainforests. Two synergy groups and one trade-off group were identified. Apart from conserving rainforests and sclerophyll forests, our findings suggest two additional integrated pathways to sustain the supply of multiple ecosystem services from a

  20. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2017-06-01

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  1. Source Evaluation and Trace Metal Contamination in Benthic Sediments from Equatorial Ecosystems Using Multivariate Statistical Techniques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nsikak U Benson

    Full Text Available Trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb concentrations in benthic sediments were analyzed through multi-step fractionation scheme to assess the levels and sources of contamination in estuarine, riverine and freshwater ecosystems in Niger Delta (Nigeria. The degree of contamination was assessed using the individual contamination factors (ICF and global contamination factor (GCF. Multivariate statistical approaches including principal component analysis (PCA, cluster analysis and correlation test were employed to evaluate the interrelationships and associated sources of contamination. The spatial distribution of metal concentrations followed the pattern Pb>Cu>Cr>Cd>Ni. Ecological risk index by ICF showed significant potential mobility and bioavailability for Cu, Cu and Ni. The ICF contamination trend in the benthic sediments at all studied sites was Cu>Cr>Ni>Cd>Pb. The principal component and agglomerative clustering analyses indicate that trace metals contamination in the ecosystems was influenced by multiple pollution sources.

  2. The Multifaceted Aspects of Ecosystem Integrity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio A. De Leo

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The need to reduce human impacts on ecosystems creates pressure for adequate response, but the rush to solutions fosters the oversimplification of such notions as sustainable development and ecosystem health. Hence, it favors the tendency to ignore the complexity of natural systems. In this paper, after a brief analysis of the use and abuse of the notion of ecosystem health, we address the problem of a sound definition of ecosystem integrity, critically review the different methodological and conceptual approaches to the management of natural resources, and sketch the practical implications stemming from their implementation. We show thatthere are merits and limitations in different definitions of ecosystem integrity, for each acknowledges different aspects of ecosystem structure and functioning and reflects the subjective perspectives of humans on the value, importance, and role of biological diversity. This evaluation is based on a brief sketch of the links among biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and resilience, and a description of the problems that arise in distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic disturbance. We also emphasize the difficulty of assessing the economic value of species and habitats and the need to use adaptive management policies to deal with uncertainty and ecosystem complexity. In conclusion, while acknowledging that environmental legislation requires objective statements on ecosystem status and trends, we stress that the notion of ecological integrity is so complex that its measure cannot be expressed through a single indicator, but rather requires a set of indicators at different spatial, temporal, and hierarchical levels of ecosystem organization. Ecosystem integrity is not an absolute, monolithic concept. The existence of different sets of values regarding biological diversity and environmental risks must be explicitly accounted for and incorporated in the decision process, rather than ignored or averaged out.

  3. Cumulative Energy Demands (CED) and Cumulative Emissions of PV systems in the European Union: Methodological aspects; Methodische Aspekte zu kumulierten Energieaufwendungen und Emissionen bei Photovoltaikanlagen in der Europaeischen Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerzenich, D.

    2002-07-01

    The present dissertation investigates options to save primary energy and emissions when manufacturing and using photovoltaic systems in regard to the concept of sustainability. Valuation is done by use of Cumulative Energy Demands (CED) and Cumulative Emissions as well as yearly substituted primary energy and avoided emissions. The main aim is to evaluate the consequences of national differences in electricity supply within the European Community upon the results of an ecological assessment. Therefore seven representative countries were selected within the EU. The most common photovoltaic systems presently and in the near future are monocrystalline- (sc-), multicrystalline- (pc-) and amorphous-silicon (a-Si) based. Comparison of production of these systems - with equal peak power - shows, that CED for production of these systems is lowest with pc-Si, followed by a-Si and sc-Si. The investigated countries are divided into two groups. One group - consisting of Austria and Sweden - with lower CEDs than the other one, whereas the CEDs in the second group approximately lie within the same margin. The Cumulative CO{sub 2}-Emissions show their lowest values not only in Austria and Sweden but also in France, while Cumulative NO{sub x}- and SO{sub 2}-Emissions tend to result in lower values when production takes place in Sweden or France. Especially pc-Si-Systems are found to give best results, whereas sc-Si-Systems lie at the end of the line. The use of the PC-Systems results in highest primary energy substitution in Spain and highest avoided emissions in Italy. In conclusion a comparison between production and use of the systems as well as calculation of energy payback time and emission related payback time is done. (orig.)

  4. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  5. Ethnic and locational differences in ecosystem service values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cuni Sanchez, Aida; Pfeifer, Marion; Marchant, Rob

    2016-01-01

    location. Preferred plant species for food, fodder, medicine resources, poles and firewood followed the same pattern. Our results showed that ethnicity and location affect ecosystem services' identification and importance ranking. This should be taken into account by decision-makers, e.g. as restricted......Understanding cultural preferences toward different ecosystem services is of great importance for conservation and development planning. While cultural preferences toward plant species have been long studied in the field of plant utilisation, the effects of ethnicity on ecosystem services...... identification and valuation has received little attention. We assessed the effects of ethnicity toward different ecosystem services at three similar forest islands in northern Kenya inhabited by Samburu and Boran pastoralists. Twelve focus groups were organised in each mountain, to evaluate the ecosystem...

  6. [Evaluation of ecosystem service value and strategies for ecological design in land consolidation: a case of land consolidation project in Da'an City, Jilin Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Yan, Shen-Chun; Yu, Li; Zhang, Ya-Nan

    2014-04-01

    Land consolidation, as one of the major driving forces for the changes of land use/cover, has significant impacts on landscape patterns, ecological functions, and ecosystem services. In this paper, a land consolidation project conducted in Da'an City, Jinlin Province, China, was selected to evaluate the ecosystem service values before and after land consolidation at three spatial scales, i. e., village, town, and county. The results indicated that the land consolidation with the goal to increase the area of cultivated land might cause the decrease of the saline and alkaline land, grassland, and wetland. In addition, land consolidation resulted in the reduction of the total ecosystem service values at varying degree at the three scales. Compared to the pre-consolidation status, the total post-consolidation ecosystem service values at the village, town and county scales were 7.96, 843.01 and 1205.86 million yuan, and reduced by 10.5%, 14.2% and 33.1%, respectively. Based on the evaluation of ecosystem service value, strategies of landscape ecological design were discussed to improve the ecological functions and to provide the guidance for the sustainable development of land consolidation.

  7. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

    2017-01-01

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio’s performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth. PMID:28588145

  8. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K; Fenichel, Eli P

    2017-06-20

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

  9. An ecosystem-based approach and management framework for the integrated evaluation of bivalve aquaculture impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Cranford, Peter J.; Kamermans, Pauline; Krause, Gesche; Mazurie, Joseph; Buck, Bela H.; Dolmer, Per; Fraser, David; Van Nieuwenhove, Kris; O'Beirn, Francis X.; Sanchez-mata, Adoracion; Thorarinsdottir, Gudrun G.; Strand, Oivind

    2012-01-01

    An ecosystem-based approach to bivalve aquaculture management is a strategy for the integration of aquaculture within the wider ecosystem, including human aspects, in such a way that it promotes sustainable development, equity, and resilience of ecosystems. Given the linkage between social and ecological systems, marine regulators require an ecosystem-based decision framework that structures and integrates the relationships between these systems and facilitates communication of aquaculture–en...

  10. Evaluating the Impact of Modern Copper Mining on Ecosystem Services in Southern Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virgone, K.; Brusseau, M. L.; Ramirez-Andreotta, M.; Coeurdray, M.; Poupeau, F.

    2014-12-01

    Historic mining practices were conducted with little environmental forethought, and hence generated a legacy of environmental and human-health impacts. However, an awareness and understanding of the impacts of mining on ecosystem services has developed over the past few decades. Ecosystem services are defined as benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems, and upon which they are fundamentally dependent for their survival. Ecosystem services are divided into four categories including provisioning services (i.e., food, water, timber, and fiber); regulating services (i.e., climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water quality); supporting services (i.e., soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling) and cultural services (i.e., recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual benefits) (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Sustainable mining practices have been and are being developed in an effort to protect and preserve ecosystem services. This and related efforts constitute a new generation of "modern" mines, which are defined as those that are designed and permitted under contemporary environmental legislation. The objective of this study is to develop a framework to monitor and assess the impact of modern mining practices and sustainable mineral development on ecosystem services. Using the sustainability performance indicators from the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) as a starting point, we develop a framework that is reflective of and adaptive to specific local conditions. Impacts on surface and groundwater water quality and quantity are anticipated to be of most importance to the southern Arizona region, which is struggling to meet urban and environmental water demands due to population growth and climate change. We seek to build a more comprehensive and effective assessment framework by incorporating socio-economic aspects via community engaged research, including economic valuations, community-initiated environmental monitoring, and environmental human

  11. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

  12. Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

    2016-06-10

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

  13. Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

    1985-01-01

    Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

  14. When things don't add up: quantifying impacts of multiple stressors from individual metabolism to ecosystem processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Sullivan, Lauren L; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

    2018-04-01

    Ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors which can compromise functioning and service delivery. These stressors often co-occur and interact in different ways which are not yet fully understood. Here, we applied a population model representing a freshwater amphipod feeding on leaf litter in forested streams. We simulated impacts of hypothetical stressors, individually and in pairwise combinations that target the individuals' feeding, maintenance, growth and reproduction. Impacts were quantified by examining responses at three levels of biological organisation: individual-level body sizes and cumulative reproduction, population-level abundance and biomass and ecosystem-level leaf litter decomposition. Interactive effects of multiple stressors at the individual level were mostly antagonistic, that is, less negative than expected. Most population- and ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors were stronger than expected from an additive model, that is, synergistic. Our results suggest that across levels of biological organisation responses to multiple stressors are rarely only additive. We suggest methods for efficiently quantifying impacts of multiple stressors at different levels of biological organisation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

  16. An ecosystem approach to evaluate restoration measures in the lignite mining district of Lusatia/Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaaf, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Lignite mining in Lusatia has a history of over 100 years. Open-cast mining directly affected an area of 1000 km2. Since 20 years we established an ecosystem oriented approach to evaluate the development and site characteristics of post-mining areas mainly restored for agricultural and silvicultural land use. Water and element budgets of afforested sites were studied under different geochemical settings in a chronosequence approach (Schaaf 2001), as well as the effect of soil amendments like sewage sludge or compost in restoration (Schaaf & Hüttl 2006). Since 10 years we also study the development of natural site regeneration in the constructed catchment Chicken Creek at the watershed scale (Schaaf et al. 2011, 2013). One of the striking characteristics of post-mining sites is a very large small-scale soil heterogeneity that has to be taken into account with respect to soil forming processes and element cycling. Results from these studies in combination with smaller-scale process studies enable to evaluate the long-term effect of restoration measures and adapted land use options. In addition, it is crucial to compare these results with data from undisturbed, i.e. non-mined sites. Schaaf, W., 2001: What can element budgets of false-time series tell us about ecosystem development on post-lignite mining sites? Ecological Engineering 17, 241-252. Schaaf, W. and Hüttl, R. F., 2006: Direct and indirect effects of soil pollution by lignite mining. Water, Air and Soil Pollution - Focus 6, 253-264. Schaaf, W., Bens, O., Fischer, A., Gerke, H.H., Gerwin, W., Grünewald, U., Holländer, H.M., Kögel-Knabner, I., Mutz, M., Schloter, M., Schulin, R., Veste, M., Winter, S. & Hüttl, R.F., 2011: Patterns and processes of initial terrestrial-ecosystem development. Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science, 174, 229-239. Schaaf, W., Elmer, M., Fischer, A., Gerwin, W., Nenov, R., Pretsch, H. and Zaplate, M.K., 2013: Feedbacks between vegetation, surface structures and hydrology

  17. Application of Higher-Order Cumulant in Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Yongjun; Yang, Shaopu; Wang, Junfeng

    2013-01-01

    In this paper a new method of pattern recognition based on higher-order cumulant and envelope analysis is presented. The core of this new method is to construct analytical signals from the given signals and obtain the envelope signals firstly, then compute and compare the higher-order cumulants of the envelope signals. The higher-order cumulants could be used as a characteristic quantity to distinguish these given signals. As an example, this method is applied in fault diagnosis for 197726 rolling bearing of freight locomotive. The comparisons of the second-order, third-order and fourth-order cumulants of the envelope signals from different vibration signals of rolling bearing show this new method could discriminate the normal and two fault signals distinctly

  18. An application of the learning curve-cumulative summation test to evaluate training for endotracheal intubation in emergency medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Je, Sangmo; Cho, Youngsuk; Choi, Hyuk Joong; Kang, Boseung; Lim, Taeho; Kang, Hyunggoo

    2015-04-01

    The learning curve-cumulative summation (LC-CUSUM) test allows for quantitative and individual assessments of the learning process. In this study, we evaluated the process of skill acquisition for performing endotracheal intubation (ETI) in three emergency medicine (EM) residents over a 2 year period in their first 2 years of their EM residency. We evaluated 342 ETI cases performed by three EM residents using the LC-CUSUM test according to their rate of success or failure of ETI. A 90% success rate (SR) was chosen to define adequate performance and an SR of 80% was considered inadequate. After the learning phase, the standard CUSUM test was applied to ensure that performance was maintained. The mean number of ETI cases required to reach the predefined level of performance was 74.7 (95% CI 62.0 to 87.3). CUSUM tests confirmed that performance was maintained after the learning phase. By using the LC-CUSUM test, we were able to quantitatively monitor the acquisition of the skill of ETI by EM residents. The LC-CUSUM could be useful for monitoring the learning process for the training of airway management in the practice of EM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  19. Crane Safety Assessment Method Based on Entropy and Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aihua Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the safety status of cranes is an important problem. To overcome the inaccuracies and misjudgments in such assessments, this work describes a safety assessment method for cranes that combines entropy and cumulative prospect theory. Firstly, the proposed method transforms the set of evaluation indices into an evaluation vector. Secondly, a decision matrix is then constructed from the evaluation vectors and evaluation standards, and an entropy-based technique is applied to calculate the index weights. Thirdly, positive and negative prospect value matrices are established from reference points based on the positive and negative ideal solutions. Thus, this enables the crane safety grade to be determined according to the ranked comprehensive prospect values. Finally, the safety status of four general overhead traveling crane samples is evaluated to verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the method described in this paper can precisely and reasonably reflect the safety status of a crane.

  20. Evaluation of the non-Gaussianity of two-mode entangled states over a bosonic memory channel via cumulant theory and quadrature detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Shao-Hua; Wen, Wei; Zhao, Yu-Jing; Song, Ke-Hui

    2018-04-01

    We study the properties of the cumulants of multimode boson operators and introduce the phase-averaged quadrature cumulants as the measure of the non-Gaussianity of multimode quantum states. Using this measure, we investigate the non-Gaussianity of two classes of two-mode non-Gaussian states: photon-number entangled states and entangled coherent states traveling in a bosonic memory quantum channel. We show that such a channel can skew the distribution of two-mode quadrature variables, giving rise to a strongly non-Gaussian correlation. In addition, we provide a criterion to determine whether the distributions of these states are super- or sub-Gaussian.

  1. Subjective Effect of September 11, 2001 among Pregnant Women: Is Cumulative History of Interpersonal Violence Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Marilyn W.; Cavanagh, Paul K.; Ahn, Grace; Yoshioka, Marianne R.

    2008-01-01

    Prior history of trauma may sensitize individuals to subsequent trauma, including terrorist attacks. Using a convenience sample of secondary, cross-sectional data, pregnant women were grouped based on lifetime interpersonal violence history. Cumulative risk theory was used to evaluate the association of lifetime interpersonal violence history and…

  2. An ecosystem-based approach and management framework for the integrated evaluation of bivalve aquaculture impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cranford, P.J.; Kamermans, P.; Krause, G.H.M.; Mazurie, J.

    2012-01-01

    An ecosystem-based approach to bivalve aquaculture management is a strategy for the integration of aquaculture within the wider ecosystem, including human aspects, in such a way that it promotes sustainable development, equity, and resilience of ecosystems. Given the linkage between social and

  3. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

  4. Cumulative keyboard strokes: a possible risk factor for carpal tunnel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleftheriou Andreas

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Contradictory reports have been published regarding the association of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS and the use of computer keyboard. Previous studies did not take into account the cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes among computer workers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between cumulative keyboard use (keyboard strokes and CTS. Methods Employees (461 from a Governmental data entry & processing unit agreed to participate (response rate: 84.1 % in a cross-sectional study. Α questionnaire was distributed to the participants to obtain information on socio-demographics and risk factors for CTS. The participants were examined for signs and symptoms related to CTS and were asked if they had previous history or surgery for CTS. The cumulative amount of the keyboard strokes per worker per year was calculated by the use of payroll’s registry. Two case definitions for CTS were used. The first included subjects with personal history/surgery for CTS while the second included subjects that belonged to the first case definition plus those participants were identified through clinical examination. Results Multivariate analysis used for both case definitions, indicated that those employees with high cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes were at increased risk of CTS (case definition A: OR = 2.23;95 % CI = 1.09-4.52 and case definition B: OR = 2.41; 95%CI = 1.36-4.25. A dose response pattern between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and CTS has been revealed (p  Conclusions The present study indicated a possible association between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and development of CTS. Cumulative exposure to key-board strokes would be taken into account as an exposure indicator regarding exposure assessment of computer workers. Further research is needed in order to test the results of the current study and assess causality between cumulative keyboard strokes and

  5. Synthesis report: program ecosystems, transport, pollutions, 1998 - 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etchelecou, A.; Deletraz, G.; Elichegaray, Ch.

    2001-04-01

    The ''Ecosystems, Transports, Pollution Program'' ETP Program, has been elaborated to evaluate the road pollution impacts on the mountain ecosystems. Four mountains valleys have been chosen: two in Alps (Chamonix and Maurienne) and two in Pyrenees (Biriatou and Vallee d'Aspe). This Program presents six objectives: the road traffic characterization, the pollutants emission estimation, the pollutants concentrations in the air, the pollutants dispersion according to relief, the relationships between pollutants emissions and bio-monitoring, the road pollution effects on nearby ecosystems. (A.L.B.)

  6. Shale Gas Development and Brook Trout: Scaling Best Management Practices to Anticipate Cumulative Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David; Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.; Faulkner, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    Shale gas development may involve trade-offs between energy development and benefits provided by natural ecosystems. However, current best management practices (BMPs) focus on mitigating localized ecological degradation. We review evidence for cumulative effects of natural gas development on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and conclude that BMPs should account for potential watershed-scale effects in addition to localized influences. The challenge is to develop BMPs in the face of uncertainty in the predicted response of brook trout to landscape-scale disturbance caused by gas extraction. We propose a decision-analysis approach to formulating BMPs in the specific case of relatively undisturbed watersheds where there is consensus to maintain brook trout populations during gas development. The decision analysis was informed by existing empirical models that describe brook trout occupancy responses to landscape disturbance and set bounds on the uncertainty in the predicted responses to shale gas development. The decision analysis showed that a high efficiency of gas development (e.g., 1 well pad per square mile and 7 acres per pad) was critical to achieving a win-win solution characterized by maintaining brook trout and maximizing extraction of available gas. This finding was invariant to uncertainty in predicted response of brook trout to watershed-level disturbance. However, as the efficiency of gas development decreased, the optimal BMP depended on the predicted response, and there was considerable potential value in discriminating among predictive models through adaptive management or research. The proposed decision-analysis framework provides an opportunity to anticipate the cumulative effects of shale gas development, account for uncertainty, and inform management decisions at the appropriate spatial scales.

  7. Plant functional traits predict green roof ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Tran, Stephanie; Gebert, Luke

    2015-02-17

    Plants make important contributions to the services provided by engineered ecosystems such as green roofs. Ecologists use plant species traits as generic predictors of geographical distribution, interactions with other species, and ecosystem functioning, but this approach has been little used to optimize engineered ecosystems. Four plant species traits (height, individual leaf area, specific leaf area, and leaf dry matter content) were evaluated as predictors of ecosystem properties and services in a modular green roof system planted with 21 species. Six indicators of ecosystem services, incorporating thermal, hydrological, water quality, and carbon sequestration functions, were predicted by the four plant traits directly or indirectly via their effects on aggregate ecosystem properties, including canopy density and albedo. Species average height and specific leaf area were the most useful traits, predicting several services via effects on canopy density or growth rate. This study demonstrates that easily measured plant traits can be used to select species to optimize green roof performance across multiple key services.

  8. Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamaru, Mayuko

    2016-06-21

    Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

  9. CUMULATE ROCKS ASSOCIATED WITH CARBONATE ASSIMILATION, HORTAVÆR COMPLEX, NORTH-CENTRAL NORWAY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. G.; Prestvik, T.; Li, Y.

    2009-12-01

    The Hortavær igneous complex intruded high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Caledonian Helgeland Nappe Complex at ca. 466 Ma. The complex is an unusual mafic-silicic layered intrusion (MASLI) because the principal felsic rock type is syenite and because the syenite formed in situ rather than by deep-seated partial melting of crustal rocks. Magma differentiation in the complex was by assimilation, primarily of calc-silicate rocks and melts with contributions from marble and semi-pelites, plus fractional crystallization. The effect of assimilation of calcite-rich rocks was to enhance stability of fassaitic clinopyroxene at the expense of olivine, which resulted in alkali-rich residual melts and lowering of silica activity. This combination of MASLI-style emplacement and carbonate assimilation produced three types of cumulate rocks: (1) Syenitic cumulates formed by liquid-crystal separation. As sheets of mafic magma were loaded on crystal-rich syenitic magma, residual liquid was expelled, penetrating the overlying mafic sheets in flame structures, and leaving a cumulate syenite. (2) Reaction cumulates. Carbonate assimilation, illustrated by a simple assimilation reaction: olivine + calcite + melt = clinopyroxene + CO2 resulted in cpx-rich cumulates such as clinopyroxenite, gabbro, and mela-monzodiorite, many of which contain igneous calcite. (3) Magmatic skarns. Calc-silicate host rocks underwent partial melting during assimilation, yielding a Ca-rich melt as the principal assimilated material and permitting extensive reaction with surrounding magma to form Kspar + cpx + garnet-rich ‘cumulate’ rocks. Cumulate types (2) and (3) do not reflect traditional views of cumulate rocks but instead result from a series of melt-present discontinuous (peritectic) reactions and partial melting of calc-silicate xenoliths. In the Hortavær complex, such cumulates are evident because of the distinctive peritectic cumulate assemblages. It is unclear whether assimilation of

  10. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  11. Climate change adaptation via targeted ecosystem service provision: a sustainable land management strategy for the Segura catchment (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro

    2014-05-01

    Topical research investigating climate, land-use and management scenarios in the Segura catchment (SE Spain), depicts a landscape at high-risk of, quite literally, deserting agriculture. Land degradation in the semi-arid region of SE Spain is characterized by water shortage, high erosion rates and salinization, increasingly exacerbated by climatic changes, scarce vegetation cover and detrimental farming practices. Future climate scenarios predict increases in aridity, variability and intensity of rainfall events, leading to increasing pressure on scarce soil and water resources. This study conceptualized the impending crisis of agro-ecological systems of the Segura basin (18800 km2) as a crisis of ecosystem service deterioration. In light of existing land degradation drivers and future climate scenarios, the potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies was evaluated to target three priority ecosystem services (water provision, sediment retention and carbon sequestration) as a means to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation. A preceding thorough process of stakeholder engagement (as part of the EU funded DESIRE project) indicated five SLM technologies for potential implementation, all with a focus upon reducing soil erosion, increasing soil water holding capacity and soil organic matter content. These technologies have been tested for over four years in local experimental field plots, and have provided results on the local effects upon individual environmental parameters. Despite the growing emphasis witnessed in literature upon the context-specificity which characterizes adaptation solutions, the frequent analysis at the field scale is limited in both scope and utility. There is a need to investigate the effects of adaptive SLM solutions at wider, regional scales. Thus, this study modeled the cumulative effect of each of the five selected SLM technologies with InVEST, a spatial analyst tool designed for ecosystem service quantification and

  12. Evaluation of CH4 and N2O Budget of Natural Ecosystems and Croplands in Asia with a Process-based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, A.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are important sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but significant sources of other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). To resolve the role of terrestrial biosphere in the climate system, we need to quantify total greenhouse gas budget with an adequate accuracy. In addition to top-down evaluation on the basis of atmospheric measurements, model-based approach is required for integration and up-scaling of filed data and for prediction under changing environment and different management practices. Since the early 2000s, we have developed a process-based model of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles focusing on atmosphere-ecosystem exchange of trace gases: Vegetation Integrated SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT). The model includes simple and comprehensive schemes of carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, allowing us to capture dynamic nature of greenhouse gas budget. Beginning from natural ecosystems such as temperate and tropical forests, the models is now applicable to croplands by including agricultural practices such as planting, harvest, and fertilizer input. Global simulation results have been published from several papers, but model validation and benchmarking using up-to-date observations are remained for works. The model is now applied to several practical issues such as evaluation of N2O emission from bio-fuel croplands, which are expected to accomplish the mitigation target of the Paris Agreement. We also show several topics about basic model development such as revised CH4 emission affected by dynamic water-table and refined N2O emission from nitrification.

  13. Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

    2018-02-01

    Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

  14. Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

    2018-06-01

    To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

  15. Indirect Effects and Potential Cumulative Impacts of Dredging in an Urbanized Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommerfield, C. K.; Chen, J.; Ralston, D. K.; Geyer, W. R.

    2016-02-01

    For over two centuries, the Delaware River and Bay estuary has supported one of the most economically important ports in the United States. To accommodate ships of ever-increasing size, the 165-km axial shipping channel has been deepened to over twice the natural depth of the estuary. While it is known that the channel has modified tides and sedimentation patterns in the estuary, unknown are the impacts on the ecosystem as a whole. A concern is the influence of channelization on sediment movement to the tidal wetland coast, which is eroding at rates on the order of meters per year. Tidal wetlands frame the entire estuary and provide vital ecosystem services ranging from recreation to carbon sequestration. To identify shifts in baseline conditions, we are performing a retrospective analysis of estuarine dynamics using historical bathymetry, numerical modeling, and observational studies. The period of interest extends from 1848 (50 years prior to channel construction) to present. During this period the channel was progressively deepened from its natural depth of 5.5 m to the current depth of 14 m. Preliminary modeling results support independent evidence that the salt intrusion and zone of rapid sediment deposition migrated several 10s of kilometers up-estuary as an indirect effect of deepening. Ironically, the locus of intense deposition now falls squarely within the Wilmington-Philadelphia port complex; river sediment that initially settles in this area is removed by maintenance dredging before it can disperse seaward. Sediment budgetary analysis indicates that the mass of sediment dredged from the upper estuary on average exceeds the mass of the new sediment supplied from the drainage basin. Hence, a probable cumulative impact of dredging is a reduction in sediment delivery to the lower estuary and fringing wetlands. Connections among the shipping channel, wave-tide interactions, and marsh edge erosion are a topic of ongoing modeling and observational research.

  16. Preface: Ecosystem services, ecosystem health and human communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter

    2018-04-01

    This special issue contains a collection of manuscripts that were originally intended to be included in the special issue on "Physics and Economics of Ecosystem Services Flows" (Volume 101, guest editors H. Su, J. Dong and S. Nagarajan) and "Biogeochemical Processes in the Changing Wetland Environment" (Volume 103, guest editors J. Bai, L. Huang and H. Gao). All of them are addressing issues related to ecosystem services in different settings. Ecosystem services are of high value for both the ecosystems and human communities, and understanding the impacts of environmental processes and human activities on ecosystems is of fundamental importance for the preservation of these services.

  17. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  18. Summary report of a workshop on establishing cumulative effects thresholds : a suggested approach for establishing cumulative effects thresholds in a Yukon context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Increasingly, thresholds are being used as a land and cumulative effects assessment and management tool. To assist in the management of wildlife species such as woodland caribou, the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (DIAND) Environment Directorate, Yukon sponsored a workshop to develop and use cumulative thresholds in the Yukon. The approximately 30 participants reviewed recent initiatives in the Yukon and other jurisdictions. The workshop is expected to help formulate a strategic vision for implementing cumulative effects thresholds in the Yukon. The key to success resides in building relationships with Umbrella Final Agreement (UFA) Boards, the Development Assessment Process (DAP), and the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Act (YESAA). Broad support is required within an integrated resource management framework. The workshop featured discussions on current science and theory of cumulative effects thresholds. Potential data and implementation issues were also discussed. It was concluded that thresholds are useful and scientifically defensible. The threshold research results obtained in Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories are applicable to the Yukon. One of the best tools for establishing and tracking thresholds is habitat effectiveness. Effects must be monitored and tracked. Biologists must share their information with decision makers. Interagency coordination and assistance should be facilitated through the establishment of working groups. Regional land use plans should include thresholds. 7 refs.

  19. Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

    2017-06-01

    Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

  20. Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of Toxic Air Contaminants in Multiple Ecosystem Indicators in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanus, L.; Simonich, S. L.; Rocchio, J.; Flanagan, C.

    2013-12-01

    Toxic air contaminants originating from agricultural areas of the Central Valley in California threaten vulnerable sensitive receptors including surface water, vegetation, snow, sediments, fish, and amphibians in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region. The spatial distribution of toxic air contaminants in different ecosystem indicators depends on variation in atmospheric concentrations and deposition, and variation in air toxics accumulation in ecosystems. The spatial distribution of organic air toxics and mercury at over 330 unique sampling locations and sample types over two decades (1990-2009) in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region were compiled and maps were developed to further understand spatial patterns and linkages between air toxics deposition and ecological effects. Potential ecosystem impacts in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region include bioaccumulation of air toxics in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, reproductive disruption, and immune suppression. The most sensitive ecological end points in the region that are affected by bioaccumulation of toxic air contaminants are fish. Mercury was detected in all fish and approximately 6% exceeded human consumption thresholds. Organic air toxics were also detected in fish yielding variable spatial patterns. For amphibians, which are sensitive to pesticide exposure and potential immune suppression, increasing trends in current and historic use pesticides are observed from north to south across the region. In other indicators, such as vegetation, pesticide concentrations in lichen increase with increasing elevation. Current and historic use pesticides and mercury were also observed in snowpack at high elevations in the study area. This study shows spatial patterns in toxic air contaminants, evaluates associated risks to sensitive receptors, and identifies data gaps. Future research on atmospheric modeling and information on sources is needed in order to predict which ecosystems are the

  1. Ecosystem Health Assessment of Mining Cities Based on Landscape Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, W.; Liu, Y.; Lin, M.; Fang, F.; Xiao, R.

    2017-09-01

    Ecosystem health assessment (EHA) is one of the most important aspects in ecosystem management. Nowadays, ecological environment of mining cities is facing various problems. In this study, through ecosystem health theory and remote sensing images in 2005, 2009 and 2013, landscape pattern analysis and Vigor-Organization-Resilience (VOR) model were applied to set up an evaluation index system of ecosystem health of mining city to assess the healthy level of ecosystem in Panji District Huainan city. Results showed a temporal stable but high spatial heterogeneity landscape pattern during 2005-2013. According to the regional ecosystem health index, it experienced a rapid decline after a slight increase, and finally it maintained at an ordinary level. Among these areas, a significant distinction was presented in different towns. It indicates that the ecosystem health of Tianjijiedao town, the regional administrative centre, descended rapidly during the study period, and turned into the worst level in the study area. While the Hetuan Town, located in the northwestern suburb area of Panji District, stayed on a relatively better level than other towns. The impacts of coal mining collapse area, land reclamation on the landscape pattern and ecosystem health status of mining cities were also discussed. As a result of underground coal mining, land subsidence has become an inevitable problem in the study area. In addition, the coal mining subsidence area has brought about the destruction of the farmland, construction land and water bodies, which causing the change of the regional landscape pattern and making the evaluation of ecosystem health in mining area more difficult. Therefore, this study provided an ecosystem health approach for relevant departments to make scientific decisions.

  2. Empirical PPGIS/PGIS mapping of ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Gregory G; Fagerholm, Nora

    2015-01-01

    demonstrate high potential for the identification of ecosystem services, especially cultural services, there has been no review to evaluate the methods to identify best practice. Through examination of peer-reviewed, empirical PPGIS/PGIS studies, we describe the types of ecosystem services mapped, the spatial...... of experimental design and long-term case studies where the influence of mapped ecosystem services on land use decisions can be assessed....... mapping methods, the sampling approaches and range of participants, the types of spatial analyses performed, and the methodological trade-offs associated with each PPGIS/PGIS mapping approach. We found that multiple methods were implemented in nearly 30 case studies worldwide with the mapping of cultural...

  3. Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

    2012-01-01

    This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

  4. Evaluation of Weed Biodiversity on Rice (Oryza sativa L Agro-ecosystems (Organic and High-input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Yusef Musavi Toghyani

    2017-12-01

    system, there was no significant difference between the two systems. Confirmations suggest that the combination of plant and animal communities and the structure of food webs in rice agro-ecosystems are very similar in different parts of the world. Comparison of different stages of sampling based on the average of the two systems revealed a decline in diversity and evenness of weeds in the fourth stage (after harvest. The evaluation of biodiversity indicators of both organic and high input systems also showed a significant reduction in weed biodiversity indices in the fourth stage compared to the previous stages. This result could be due to the disturbance of rice agro-ecosystems affected by harvesting and soil preparation for the emergence of various weed species. As regards that evidences suggest that in these conditions (disturbance and stress only certain species (especially resistant species are dominant. Despite the anticipation of increasing diversity in these conditions, because of drought stress at the harvesting stage, resistant species to stress emerged and established. In the tolerance model, despite the existence of opportunistic species, low-expected species (low R star are grown and mature at lower resource levels. The superiority of diversity in the organic system, especially in the fourth stage, can be related to the emergence and establishment of resistant weeds to disturbance and stress conditions such as Digitaria spp. X. strumarium, and E. prostrata (species of non-flooding conditions in addition to common weeds of the rice agro-ecosystems, such as Echinochloacrussgulli and Cyperus spp. (species of flooding conditions. Conclusion The results showed that in general, biodiversity (diversity and evenness indices of weeds were higher in the organic system compared to the conventional one. From this viewpoint, it can be said that the sustainability of organic systems rather than the conventional ones is mainly due to their greater diversity. Because of

  5. Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

    2015-09-15

    Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

  6. A meta-analysis of coastal wetland ecosystem services in Liaoning Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Baodi; Cui, Lijuan; Li, Wei; Kang, Xiaoming; Pan, Xu; Lei, Yinru

    2018-01-01

    Wetlands are impacted by economic and political initiatives, and their ecosystem services are attracting increasing public attention. It is crucial that management decisions for wetland ecosystem services quantify the economic value of the ecosystem services. In this paper, we aimed to estimate a monetary value for coastal wetland ecosystem services in Liaoning Province, China. We selected 433 observations from 85 previous coastal wetland economic evaluations (mostly in China) including detailed spatial and economic characteristics in each wetland, then used a meta-analysis scale transfer method to calculate the total value of coastal wetland ecosystem services in Liaoning Province. Our results demonstrated that, on average, the ecosystem services provided by seven different coastal wetland types were worth US40,648 per ha per year, and the total value was 28,990,439,041 in 2013. Shallow marine waters accounted for the largest proportion (83.97%). Variables with a significant positive effect on the ecosystem service values included GDP per capita, population density, distance from the wetland to the city center and the year of evaluation, while wetland size and latitude had negative relationships.

  7. Problem of a radiocapacity in a system soil-plant for bog ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutlakhmedova-Vyshnyakova, V.

    1998-01-01

    The factors of the various components of a pasture bog ecosystem were evaluated on the example of the Volynsk area. Soil and water were found to contribute appreciably to the accumulation of radionuclides in plants in the bog ecosystem. Evaluation of the integral distribution of radionuclides ( 137 Cs) and the radiocapacity factors of the bog ecosystem components lead to F(soil) = 0.5, F(water) = 0.1, F(plants) = 0.25, and F(root) = 0.15. The radiocapacity factor determines the fraction of radionuclides from a general reserve concentrated in a particular component of the ecosystem. The higher values transfer factors of accumulation for plants in the bog ecosystem in comparison with terrestrial ecosystems (Tf 1.5-18) are noteworthy. Thus the contribution of soil to the formation Tf is from 60 % to 80 %, the remaining pathway in plants being from the water phase. This may be related with the high radiocapacity of soil in the bog ecosystem and (as a corollary) the rather small concentration of radionuclides in water in comparison with soil

  8. Cumulative emission budgets and their implications: the case for SAFE carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David; Mason, Charles

    2010-05-01

    The risk of dangerous long-term climate change due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is predominantly determined by cumulative emissions over all time, not the rate of emission in any given year or commitment period. This has profound implications for climate mitigation policy: emission targets for specific years such as 2020 or 2050 provide no guarantee of meeting any overall cumulative emission budget. By focusing attention on short-term measures to reduce the flow of emissions, they may even exacerbate the overall long-term stock. Here we consider how climate policies might be designed explicitly to limit cumulative emissions to, for example, one trillion tonnes of carbon, a figure that has been estimated to give a most likely warming of two degrees above pre-industrial, with a likely range of 1.6-2.6 degrees. Three approaches are considered: tradable emission permits with the possibility of indefinite emission banking, carbon taxes explicitly linked to cumulative emissions and mandatory carbon sequestration. Framing mitigation policy around cumulative targets alleviates the apparent tension between climate protection and short-term consumption that bedevils any attempt to forge global agreement. We argue that the simplest and hence potentially the most effective approach might be a mandatory requirement on the fossil fuel industry to ensure that a steadily increasing fraction of fossil carbon extracted from the ground is artificially removed from the active carbon cycle through some form of sequestration. We define Sequestered Adequate Fraction of Extracted (SAFE) carbon as a source in which this sequestered fraction is anchored to cumulative emissions, increasing smoothly to reach 100% before we release the trillionth tonne. While adopting the use of SAFE carbon would increase the cost of fossil energy much as a system of emission permits or carbon taxes would, it could do so with much less explicit government intervention. We contrast this proposal

  9. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  10. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

  11. Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

    2014-01-01

    State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

  12. Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

  13. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  14. The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

  15. Ecosystem services as a common language for coastal ecosystem-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granek, Elise F; Polasky, Stephen; Kappel, Carrie V; Reed, Denise J; Stoms, David M; Koch, Evamaria W; Kennedy, Chris J; Cramer, Lori A; Hacker, Sally D; Barbier, Edward B; Aswani, Shankar; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Perillo, Gerardo M E; Silliman, Brian R; Muthiga, Nyawira; Bael, David; Wolanski, Eric

    2010-02-01

    Ecosystem-based management is logistically and politically challenging because ecosystems are inherently complex and management decisions affect a multitude of groups. Coastal ecosystems, which lie at the interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and provide an array of ecosystem services to different groups, aptly illustrate these challenges. Successful ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystems requires incorporating scientific information and the knowledge and views of interested parties into the decision-making process. Estimating the provision of ecosystem services under alternative management schemes offers a systematic way to incorporate biogeophysical and socioeconomic information and the views of individuals and groups in the policy and management process. Employing ecosystem services as a common language to improve the process of ecosystem-based management presents both benefits and difficulties. Benefits include a transparent method for assessing trade-offs associated with management alternatives, a common set of facts and common currency on which to base negotiations, and improved communication among groups with competing interests or differing worldviews. Yet challenges to this approach remain, including predicting how human interventions will affect ecosystems, how such changes will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and how changes in service provision will affect the welfare of different groups in society. In a case study from Puget Sound, Washington, we illustrate the potential of applying ecosystem services as a common language for ecosystem-based management.

  16. Use of Geographic Information Systems to examine cumulative impacts of development on Mobile Bay, AL and Galveston Bay, TX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosigno, P.F.; McNiff, M.E.; Watzin, M.C.; Ji, W.

    1993-01-01

    Databases from Mobile Bay, Alabama and Galveston Bay, Texas were compiled using ARC/INFO Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to examine the cumulative impacts from urbanization and industrialization on these two Gulf of Mexico estuaries. The databases included information on wetland habitats, pollution sources, metal contamination, bird-nesting sites, and oyster reefs, among others. A series of maps were used to represent the impacts within and between each ecosystem. These two estuaries share many similarities in the types of developmental pressures that each experience. However, difference in the magnitude of industrial activity, pollution loading, and urban growth coupled with distinct hydrodynamic and geochemical differences in sediment mineralogy, freshwater inflows and salinity regimens results in differing responses. With growing human population and extensive oil and gas development, the demands on Galveston Bay are quite different than those placed on Mobile Bay which has lower growth and less extensive oil and gas infrastructure. Mobile Bay tends to retain whatever contamination enters into the system because of the high levels of clay and organic carbon found in its sediment. Some of these chemicals bioaccumulate, posing an extra risk to natural resources. Geographic Information Systems provide natural resource managers with the technology to manage complex databases. The analytical and mapping capabilities of GIS can be used to consider cumulative effects in a regional context and to develop plans to protect ecologically sensitive areas

  17. Cumulation of light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

  18. Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

    2018-02-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

  19. Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem goods and services are the many life-sustaining benefits we receive from nature and contribute to environmental and human health and well-being. Ecosystem-focused research will develop methods to measure ecosystem goods and services.

  20. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  1. Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2005-01-01

    An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

  2. Ecological risks of pesticides in freshwater ecosystems; Part 1: herbicides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.; Lahr, J.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2000-01-01

    A literature review of freshwater model ecosystem studies with herbicides was performed to assess the NOEC[sub]ecosystem for individual compounds, to compare these threshold levels with water quality standards, and to evaluate the ecological consequences of exceeding these standards. Studies were

  3. Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

    2008-08-01

    Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

  4. Risk of therapy-related leukaemia and preleukaemia after Hodgkin's disease. Relation to age, cumulative dose of alkylating agents, and time from chemotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen-Bjergaard, J.; Specht, L.; Larsen, S.O.

    1987-01-01

    391 patients treated intensively for Hodgkin's disease were followed for up to 15 years to evaluate the risk of therapy-related acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia (t-ANLL) and preleukaemia. Only two independent factors, patient age and cumulative dose of alkylating agents, were related to the risk...... of t-ANLL. The hazard rate of t-ANLL was roughly proportional to the square of patient age and to the total cumulative dose of alkylating agents. In 320 patients treated with alkylating agents the cumulative risk of t-ANLL increased steadily from 1 year after the start of treatment and reached 13.......0% (SE 3.0) at 10 years after which time there were no further cases. Calculated from cessation of therapy with alkylating agents, however, the cumulative risk curve increased steeply during the first 1-2 years then gradually levelled out and no new cases were observed beyond 7 years. With a 15-year...

  5. Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

  6. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  7. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  8. Economic Evaluation of Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Mediterranean River Basins Applied to a Case Study in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Mastrorilli

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Land use affects eco-hydrological processes with consequences for floods and droughts. Changes in land use affect ecosystems and hydrological services. The objective of this study is the analysis of hydrological services through the quantification of water resources, pollutant loads, land retention capacity and soil erosion. On the basis of a quantitative evaluation, the economic values of the ecosystem services are estimated. By assigning an economic value to the natural resources and to the hydraulic system, the hydrological services can be computed at the scale of catchment ecosystem. The proposed methodology was applied to the basin “Bonis” (Calabria Region, Italy. The study analyses four land use scenarios: (i forest cover with good vegetative status (baseline scenario; (ii modification of the forest canopy; (iii variation in forest and cultivated surfaces; (iv insertion of impermeable areas. The simulations prove that the variations of the state of forest areas has considerable influence on the water balance, and then on the provided economic value. Small economic changes derive from reducing the impermeable areas. Increasing the agricultural area to 50% of the total, and reducing the forest surface, affects soil erosion, reduces the storage capacity of the water, and consequently the water harvesting. The suggested methodology can be considered a suitable tool for land planning.

  9. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, C T; Matthews, H D

    2016-01-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO 2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO 2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO 2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO 2 . We find that when we isolate the CO 2 -induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO 2 . We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO 2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  10. Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

  11. A systematic approach towards the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardron, Jeff A.; Clark, Malcolm R.; Penney, Andrew J.; Hourigan, Thomas F.; Rowden, Ashley A.; Dunstan, Piers K.; Watling, Les; Shank, Timothy M.; Tracey, Di M.; Dunn, Matthew R.; Parker, Steven J.

    2014-01-01

    The United Nations General Assembly in 2006 and 2009 adopted resolutions that call for the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from significant adverse impacts of bottom fishing. While general criteria have been produced, there are no guidelines or protocols that elaborate on the process from initial identification through to the protection of VMEs. Here, based upon an expert review of existing practices, a 10-step framework is proposed: (1) Comparatively assess potential VME indicator taxa and habitats in a region; (2) determine VME thresholds; (3) consider areas already known for their ecological importance; (4) compile information on the distributions of likely VME taxa and habitats, as well as related environmental data; (5) develop predictive distribution models for VME indicator taxa and habitats; (6) compile known or likely fishing impacts; (7) produce a predicted VME naturalness distribution (areas of low cumulative impacts); (8) identify areas of higher value to user groups; (9) conduct management strategy evaluations to produce trade-off scenarios; (10) review and re-iterate, until spatial management scenarios are developed that fulfil international obligations and regional conservation and management objectives. To date, regional progress has been piecemeal and incremental. The proposed 10-step framework combines these various experiences into a systematic approach.

  12. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  13. Polar marine ecosystems: major threats and future change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, A. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Harris, C.M. [Environmental Research and Assessment, Grantchester (United Kingdom)

    2003-07-01

    This review of polar marine ecosystems covers both the Arctic and Antarctic, identifying the major threats and, where possible, predicting their possible state(s) in 2025. Although the two polar regions are similar in their extreme photoperiod, low temperatures, and in being heavily influenced by snow and ice, in almost all other respects they are very different. The Arctic Ocean is a basin surrounded by continental landmasses close to, and influenced by, large populations and industrial activities. In contrast, the Southern Ocean is contiguous with all the other great oceans and surrounds a single land mass; Antarctica is remote from major centres of population and sources of pollution. Marine environments in both Polar Regions have been highly disturbed by fishing activity, but, in terms of pollution, some areas remain among the most pristine in the world. There are, however, both local and global pressures. Over the 2025 time horizon, the greatest concern for the Arctic is probably the ecological implications of climate change, particularly insofar as sea ice extent and duration are likely to be affected. Such changes are not expected to be as pronounced in the Southern Ocean over this time period, and concerns are related more to direct threats from harvesting of marine living resources, and the ability to manage these fisheries sustainably. In both Polar Regions, the capacity of marine ecosystems to withstand the cumulative impact of a number of pressures, including climate change, pollution and overexploitation, acting synergistically is of greatest concern. (author)

  14. Comparison of Coral Reef Ecosystems along a Fishing Pressure Gradient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.W.; Fulton, E.A.; Parrish, F.A.

    2013-01-01

    Three trophic mass-balance models representing coral reef ecosystems along a fishery gradient were compared to evaluate ecosystem effects of fishing. The majority of the biomass estimates came directly from a large-scale visual survey program; therefore, data were collected in the same way for all

  15. Ecosystem services and economic theory: integration for policy-relevant research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Brendan; Turner, Kerry; Zylstra, Matthew; Brouwer, Roy; de Groot, Rudolf; Farber, Stephen; Ferraro, Paul; Green, Rhys; Hadley, David; Harlow, Julian; Jefferiss, Paul; Kirkby, Chris; Morling, Paul; Mowatt, Shaun; Naidoo, Robin; Paavola, Jouni; Strassburg, Bernardo; Yu, Doug; Balmford, Andrew

    2008-12-01

    It has become essential in policy and decision-making circles to think about the economic benefits (in addition to moral and scientific motivations) humans derive from well-functioning ecosystems. The concept of ecosystem services has been developed to address this link between ecosystems and human welfare. Since policy decisions are often evaluated through cost-benefit assessments, an economic analysis can help make ecosystem service research operational. In this paper we provide some simple economic analyses to discuss key concepts involved in formalizing ecosystem service research. These include the distinction between services and benefits, understanding the importance of marginal ecosystem changes, formalizing the idea of a safe minimum standard for ecosystem service provision, and discussing how to capture the public benefits of ecosystem services. We discuss how the integration of economic concepts and ecosystem services can provide policy and decision makers with a fuller spectrum of information for making conservation-conversion trade-offs. We include the results from a survey of the literature and a questionnaire of researchers regarding how ecosystem service research can be integrated into the policy process. We feel this discussion of economic concepts will be a practical aid for ecosystem service research to become more immediately policy relevant.

  16. Assessing Ecosystem Services and Multifunctionality for Vineyard Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klara J. Winkler

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Vineyards shape important economic, cultural, and ecological systems in many temperate biomes. Like other agricultural systems, they can be multifunctional landscapes that not only produce grapes, but also for example serve as wildlife habitat, sequester carbon, and are places of rich traditions. However, research and management practices often focus mostly on individual, specific ecosystem services, without considering multifunctionality. Therefore, we set out to meet four research objectives: (1 evaluate how frequently the ecosystem services approach has been applied in vineyard systems; (2 identify which individual ecosystem services have been most frequently studied in vineyard systems, (3 summarize knowledge on the key ecosystem services identified in (2, and (4 illustrate approaches to multifunctionality in vineyards to inform more holistic land management. For research objective (1, we identified 45 publications that used the term “ecosystem services” in relation to vineyards, but found that only seven fully apply the ecosystem service concept to their research. For research objective (2, we operationalized the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES for 27 ecosystem services in vineyards, in order to consider provisioning, regulating, and cultural services through an analysis of more than 4,000 scientific papers that mentioned individual services. We found the six most frequently studied ecosystem services included (1 cultivated crops, (2 filtration, sequestration, storage and accumulation by the vineyards, (3 pest control and (4 disease control, (5 heritage, cultural and (6 scientific services. For research objective (3, we found that research on these six single ecosystem services is highly developed, but relationships between single ecosystem services are less studied. Therefore, we suggest that greater adoption of the ecosystem services approach could help scientists and practitioners to acknowledge the

  17. Avian wildlife as sentinels of ecosystem health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smits, Judit E G; Fernie, Kimberly J

    2013-05-01

    Birds have been widely used as sentinels of ecosystem health reflecting changes in habitat quality, increased incidence of disease, and exposure to and effects of chemical contaminants. Numerous studies addressing these issues focus on the breeding period, since hormonal, behavioural, reproductive, and developmental aspects of the health can be observed over a relatively short time-span. Many body systems within individuals are tightly integrated and interdependent, and can be affected by contaminant chemicals, disease, and habitat changes in complex ways. Animals higher in the food web will reflect cumulative effects of multiple stressors. Such features make birds ideal indicators for assessing environmental health in areas of environmental concern. Five case studies are presented, highlighting the use of different species which have provided insight into ecosystem sustainability, including (i) the consequences of anthropogenic disturbances of sagebrush habitat on the greater northern sage grouse Centrocercus urophasianus; (ii) the high prevalence of disease in very specific passerine species in the Canary Islands closely paralleling deterioration of formerly productive desert habitat and ensuing interspecific stressors; (iii) fractures, abnormal bone structure, and associated biochemical aberrations in nestling storks exposed to acidic tailings mud from a dyke rupture at an iron pyrite mine near Sevilla, Spain; (iv) newly presented data demonstrating biochemical changes in nestling peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus and associations with exposure to major chemical classes in the Great Lakes Basin of Canada; and (v) the variability in responses of tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor to contaminants, biological and meteorological challenges when breeding in the Athabasca oil sands. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

    2015-06-09

    The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service) were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing) had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health.

  19. Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwey-Lian Hsieh

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health.

  20. Evaluation of the Modern State of Water Ecosystems and the Issues with Protecting Biological Resources During Development of the Kruzenshternskoye Gas Condensate Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Dmitrievich Bogdanov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the results of the studies of the present state of freshwater ecosystems and their biotic components in the western part of the Yamal Peninsula are presented. Based on the evaluation of the structure of the communities of phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and whitefishes, the range of the problems related to the protection of biological resources at the development of the Kruzenshternskoye gas field is defined. Data on species composition and quantitative indicators of hydrobionts of different types of waterbodies and watercourses in the lower reaches of the Mordyyakha and Naduyyakha rivers basins are the basis for environmental monitoring of water objects at development and exploitation of the Kruzenshternskoye gas field. According to the monitoring program, evaluation of the fish fauna state and their food base on the territory of the Kruzenshternskoye gas condensate field (GCF, is present. The zones of rivers deltas are the most important areas of the salmonid and whitefishes valuable fish species feeding at the territory of Kruzenshternskoye GCF. In the cases where complete demolish of waterbodies and watercourses for construction of facilities for GCF does not occur, changes of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of communities of hydrobionts after cease of works are reversible. River ecosystems are restored within a more short period of time in comparison to lacustrine ones. On the basis of conducted comprehensive studies, the proposals for the protection of fisheries resources and monitoring of aquatic ecosystems are reported. Recommendations for reducing the anthropogenic impact on aquatic ecosystems in the development period are presented. The results of the investigation were used in the designing the environmental protection part of the Kruzenshternskoye deposit project. At present, the disturbances in the territory of Kruzenshternskoye deposit of gas does not impact the aquatic ecosystems

  1. Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Paul J; Hanauer, Merlin M; Miteva, Daniela A; Nelson, Joanna L; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R E

    2015-06-16

    Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds.

  2. Assessing stress-related treatment needs among girls at risk for poor functional outcomes: The impact of cumulative adversity, criterion traumas, and non-criterion events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Beck, Audrey N

    2017-05-01

    Despite growing recognition that cumulative adversity (total stressor exposure, including complex trauma), increases the risk for psychopathology and impacts development, assessment strategies lag behind: Adversity-related mental health needs (symptoms, functional impairment, maladaptive coping) are typically assessed in response to only one qualifying Criterion-A traumatic event. This is especially problematic for youth at-risk for health and academic disparities who experience cumulative adversity, including non-qualifying events (separation from caregivers) which may produce more impairing symptomatology. Data from 118 delinquent girls demonstrate: (1) an average of 14 adverse Criterion-A and non-Criterion event exposures; (2) serious maladaptive coping strategies (self-injury) directly in response to cumulative adversity; (3) more cumulative adversity-related than worst-event related symptomatology and functional impairment; and (4) comparable symptomatology, but greater functional impairment, in response to non-Criterion events. These data support the evaluation of mental health needs in response to cumulative adversity for optimal identification and tailoring of services in high-risk populations to reduce disparities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Intensive monitoring of forest ecosystems in Europe; 1 objectives, set-up and evaluation strategy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de W.; Vel, E.M.; Reinds, G.J.; Deelstra, H.; Klap, J.M.; Leeters, E.E.J.M.; Hendriks, C.M.A.; Kerkvoorden, M.; Landmann, G.; Herkendell, J.; Haussmann, T.; Erisman, J.W.

    2003-01-01

    In order to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of air pollution and other environmental factors on forest ecosystems, a Pan-European Programme for Intensive and Continuous Monitoring of Forest Ecosystems has been implemented in 1994. Results of the Programme must contribute to a

  4. Impact of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in different types of forest ecosystems in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zhang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Clouds can significantly affect carbon exchange process between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing the quantity and quality of solar radiation received by ecosystem's surface and other environmental factors. In this study, we analyzed the effects of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE in a temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest at Changbaishan (CBS and a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest at Dinghushan (DHS, based on the flux data obtained during June–August from 2003 to 2006. The results showed that the response of NEE of forest ecosystems to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR differed under clear skies and cloudy skies. Compared with clear skies, the light-saturated maximum photosynthetic rate (Pec,max at CBS under cloudy skies during mid-growing season (from June to August increased by 34%, 25%, 4% and 11% in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. In contrast, Pec,max of the forest ecosystem at DHS was higher under clear skies than under cloudy skies from 2004 to 2006. When the clearness index (kt ranged between 0.4 and 0.6, the NEE reached its maximum at both CBS and DHS. However, the NEE decreased more dramatically at CBS than at DHS when kt exceeded 0.6. The results indicate that cloudy sky conditions are beneficial to net carbon uptake in the temperate forest ecosystem and the subtropical forest ecosystem. Under clear skies, vapor pressure deficit (VPD and air temperature increased due to strong light. These environmental conditions led to greater decrease in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP and greater increase in ecosystem respiration (Re at CBS than at DHS. As a result, clear sky conditions caused more reduction of NEE in the temperate forest ecosystem than in the subtropical forest ecosystem. The response of NEE of different forest ecosystems to the changes in

  5. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. [Ecosystem services supply and consumption and their relationships with human well-being].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Da-Shang; Zheng, Hua; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun

    2013-06-01

    Sustainable ecosystem services supply is the basis of regional sustainable development, and human beings can satisfy and improve their well-being through ecosystem services consumption. To understand the relationships between ecosystem services supply and consumption and human well-being is of vital importance for coordinating the relationships between the conservation of ecosystem services and the improvement of human well-being. This paper summarized the diversity, complexity, and regionality of ecosystem services supply, the diversity and indispensability of ecosystem services consumption, and the multi-dimension, regionality, and various evaluation indices of human well-being, analyzed the uncertainty and multi-scale correlations between ecosystem services supply and consumption, and elaborated the feedback and asynchronous relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being. Some further research directions for the relationships between ecosystem services supply and consumption and human well-being were recommended.

  7. Toxicological evaluation of parathion and azinphosmethyl in freshwater model ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dortland, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    A study was made of the possible hazards of long-term exposure of freshwater ecosystems to low (< 1 mg m -3) concentrations of organophosphorus insecticides. Range-finding, acute and sub-acute (3 weeks) laboratory toxicity trials were

  8. Managing for resilience: an information theory-based approach to assessing ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystems are complex and multivariate; hence, methods to assess the dynamics of ecosystems should have the capacity to evaluate multiple indicators simultaneously. Most research on identifying leading indicators of regime shifts has focused on univariate methods and simple mod...

  9. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting ecosystem vulnerability to biodiversity loss from community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilpern, Sebastian A; Weeks, Brian C; Naeem, Shahid

    2018-05-01

    Ecosystems vary widely in their responses to biodiversity change, with some losing function dramatically while others are highly resilient. However, generalizations about how species- and community-level properties determine these divergent ecosystem responses have been elusive because potential sources of variation (e.g., trophic structure, compensation, functional trait diversity) are rarely evaluated in conjunction. Ecosystem vulnerability, or the likely change in ecosystem function following biodiversity change, is influenced by two types of species traits: response traits that determine species' individual sensitivities to environmental change, and effect traits that determine a species' contribution to ecosystem function. Here we extend the response-effect trait framework to quantify ecosystem vulnerability and show how trophic structure, within-trait variance, and among-trait covariance affect ecosystem vulnerability by linking extinction order and functional compensation. Using in silico trait-based simulations we found that ecosystem vulnerability increased when response and effect traits positively covaried, but this increase was attenuated by decreasing trait variance. Contrary to expectations, in these communities, both functional diversity and trophic structure increased ecosystem vulnerability. In contrast, ecosystem functions were resilient when response and effect traits covaried negatively, and variance had a positive effect on resiliency. Our results suggest that although biodiversity loss is often associated with decreases in ecosystem functions, such effects are conditional on trophic structure, and the variation within and covariation among response and effect traits. Taken together, these three factors can predict when ecosystems are poised to lose or gain function with ongoing biodiversity change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  11. An ecosystem-based approach and management framework for the integrated evaluation of bivalve aquaculture impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cranford, Peter J.; Kamermans, Pauline; Krause, Gesche

    2012-01-01

    for bivalve aquaculture be based on a tiered indicator monitoring system that is structured on the principle that increased environmental risk requires increased monitoring effort. More than 1 threshold for each indicator would permit implementation of predetermined impact prevention and mitigation measures......An ecosystem-based approach to bivalve aquaculture management is a strategy for the integration of aquaculture within the wider ecosystem, including human aspects, in such a way that it promotes sustainable development, equity, and resilience of ecosystems. Given the linkage between social...... and ecological systems, marine regulators require an ecosystem-based decision framework that structures and integrates the relationships between these systems and facilitates communication of aquaculture–environment interactions and policy-related developments and decisions. The Drivers-Pressures-State Change-Impact-Response...

  12. Measuring Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Stam, F.C.

    2017-01-01

    How can entrepreneurial ecosystems and productive entrepreneurship can be traced empirically and how is entrepreneurship related to entrepreneurial ecosystems. The analyses in this chapter show the value of taking a systems view on the context of entrepreneurship. We measure entrepreneurial ecosystem elements and use these to compose an entrepreneurial ecosystem index. Next, we measure the output of entrepreneurial ecosystems with different indicators of high-growth firms. We use the 12 provi...

  13. Technical Note: SCUDA: A software platform for cumulative dose assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Seyoun; McNutt, Todd; Quon, Harry; Wong, John; Lee, Junghoon, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21231 (United States); Plishker, William [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 (United States); Shekhar, Raj, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 and Sheikh Zayed Institute for Pediatric Surgical Innovation, Children’s National Health System, Washington, DC 20010 (United States)

    2016-10-15

    accurate and efficient monitoring of anatomical changes and computation of actually delivered dose to the patient, thus realizing an efficient cumulative dose computation workflow. Evaluation on HN cases demonstrated the utility of our platform for monitoring the treatment quality and detecting significant dosimetric variations that are keys to successful ART.

  14. Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

    2011-01-01

    Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

  15. Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region: two different exponentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, M.; Vechernin, V.

    1997-01-01

    In the framework of the recently proposed (QCD-based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analyzed. It is shown that due to final-state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x ≥ 1, in agreement with the recent experimental data

  16. Cumulative Childhood Trauma and Therapeutic Alliance: The Moderator Role of Attachment in Adult Patients Consulting in Sex Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafrenaye-Dugas, Anne-Julie; Godbout, Natacha; Hébert, Martine

    2018-03-05

    While it is documented that clients consulting in sex therapy tend to report high rates of childhood interpersonal traumas (e.g., physical, psychological and sexual abuse), which are associated to insecure attachment and poorer therapeutic alliance, the interrelations of these variables have not yet been evaluated in this specific population. This study examined the associations between attachment, cumulative trauma and therapeutic alliance in 278 sex therapy patients who filled out self-report questionnaires. Results revealed that avoidant attachment acted as a moderator between cumulative trauma and the agreement on tasks dimension of therapeutic alliance. Results suggests the relevance for sex therapists to investigate past traumas and current attachment representations to guide interventions and optimize treatment benefits.

  17. Coso geothermal environmental overview study ecosystem quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leitner, P.

    1981-09-01

    The Coso Known Geothermal Resource Area is located just east of the Sierra Nevada, in the broad transition zone between the Mohave and Great Basin desert ecosystems. The prospect of large-scale geothermal energy development here in the near future has led to concern for the protection of biological resources. Objectives here are the identification of ecosystem issues, evaluation of the existing data base, and recommendation of additional studies needed to resolve key issues. High-priority issues include the need for (1) site-specific data on the occurrence of plant and animal species of special concern, (2) accurate and detailed information on the nature and extent of the geothermal resource, and (3) implementation of a comprehensive plan for ecosystem protection.

  18. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

  19. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

  20. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  1. Mapping Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiev,Teodor; Burkhard,Benjamin; Maes,Joachim

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystem structure and function (in combination with other inputs) to human well-being. That means, humankind is strongly dependent on well-functioning ecosystems and natural capital that are the base for a constant flow of ecosystem services from nature to society. Therefore ecosystem services have the potential to become a major tool for policy and decision making on global, national, regional and local scales. Possible applications are manifold:...

  2. Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

    1998-01-01

    The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

  3. Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2013-12-01

    We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

  4. A software tool for ecosystem services assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Klinting, Anders; Butts, Michael; Middelboe, Anne Lise; Mark, Ole

    2017-04-01

    The EU FP7 DESSIN project is developing methods and tools for assessment of ecosystem services (ESS) and associated economic values, with a focus on freshwater ESS in urban settings. Although the ESS approach has gained considerable visibility over the past ten years, operationalizing the approach remains a challenge. Therefore, DESSSIN is also supporting development of a free software tool to support users implementing the DESSIN ESS evaluation framework. The DESSIN ESS evaluation framework is a structured approach to measuring changes in ecosystem services. The main purpose of the framework is to facilitate the application of the ESS approach in the appraisal of projects that have impacts on freshwater ecosystems and their services. The DESSIN framework helps users evaluate changes in ESS by linking biophysical, economic, and sustainability assessments sequentially. It was developed using the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) and the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, Responses) adaptive management cycle. The former is a standardized system for the classification of ESS developed by the European Union to enhance the consistency and comparability of ESS assessments. The latter is a well-known concept to disentangle the biophysical and social aspects of a system under study. As part of its analytical component, the DESSIN framework also integrates elements of the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services-Classification System (FEGS-CS) of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). As implemented in the software tool, the DESSIN framework consists of five parts: • In part I of the evaluation, the ecosystem is defined and described and the local stakeholders are identified. In addition, administrative details and objectives of the assessment are defined. • In part II, drivers and pressures are identified. Once these first two elements of the DPSIR scheme have been characterized, the claimed/expected capabilities of a

  5. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    , nutrients). With limited resources, these complementary experiments should be focused in high-priority ecosystems, with experimental treatments designed to address the major uncertainties in each system. Critical ecosystems, both managed and unmanaged, have been identified using the above criteria and key uncertainties in current understanding of ecosystem processes used to identify critical issues and experiments. The sizes of both the whole-ecosystem experiments and the multifactor experimental treatment units must be based on the sizes of the dominant organisms, the scale of major processes in each system, and the spatial heterogeneity of each system. For example, large-scale ecosystem manipulations in temperate forests should evaluate at a minimum CO{sub 2} and temperature and could be conducted on small, gauged catchments. The multifactor process experiments should address all major environmental driving variables, and the treatment units should be large enough to include multiple individuals of the major tree species. This approach represents a fundamental shift in the scale and integration of experimental ecosystem research: from the current small-scale, single- or two-factor experiments in simple natural or artificial ecosystems to highly coordinated, large-scale, replicated experiments in complex ecosystems, with multiple interacting factors being evaluated at two (or more) complementary levels of spatial scale and process resolution. These experiments will require an unprecedented long-term funding commitment and concentration of large-scale experimental research at a few major sites, with significant new investment in infrastructure to support large interdisciplinary teams of scientists.

  6. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  7. Alpine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.W. Rundel; C.I. Millar

    2016-01-01

    Alpine ecosystems are typically defined as those areas occurring above treeline, while recognizing that alpine ecosystems at a local scale may be found below this boundary for reasons including geology, geomorphology, and microclimate. The lower limit of the alpine ecosystems, the climatic treeline, varies with latitude across California, ranging from about 3500 m in...

  8. Conceptual Framework of Ecosystem Services in Landscape Planning, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Bak Yeo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the concept of ecosystem services and its trend, scale and gradient, through reviewing articles, books and internet sources. Result shows that evaluation of ecosystem services in small towns within urban-rural gradient in developing countries still not being scrutinized explicitly, especially trade-offs’ concern. Environmental damages in the developing countries are burgeoning. As land conversion from natural capital to built capital is also keep on rising for temporal economic interests. Therefore, it has induced changes in ecological functions and affected the ecosystem services supply. In the context of Peninsular Malaysia, ungoverned built capitals and flaw of policy further contribute to fallacious decision making. And yet, there is still no specific framework or initiatives directly deals with ecosystem and biodiversity. A conceptual framework has been proposed to assess and value ecosystem services through integration of InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs and bundle of ecosystem services. The framework allows stakeholders to have an insight of the pros and cons about the landscape changes, be it in ecological, economic or social-cultural perspectives. Therefore, it may help to ameliorate the trade-offs and enhance the synergies of ecosystem services that eventually can contribute to attaining human well-being, and to promote sustainable growth.

  9. Research plan for integrated ecosystem and pollutant monitoring at remote wilderness study sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruns, D.A.; Wiersma, G.B.

    1988-03-01

    This research plan outlines an approach to the measurement of pollutants and ecosystem parameters at remote, high-elevation, wilderness study sites. A multimedia, systems approach to environmental monitoring is emphasized. The primary purpose of the research is to apply and field test a technical report entitled ''Guidelines for measuring the physical, chemical, and biological condition of wilderness ecosystems.'' This document intended to provide Federal Land Managers with information to establish environmental monitoring programs in wilderness areas. To date, this monitoring document has yet to be evaluated under rigorous field conditions at a remote, high-elevation Rocky Mountain site. For the purpose of field testing approaches to monitoring of pollutants and ecosystems in remote, wilderness areas, evaluation criteria were developed. These include useability, cost-effectiveness, data variability, alternative approaches, ecosystems conceptual approach, and quality assurance. Both the Forest Service and INEL environmental monitoring techniques will be evaluated with these criteria. Another objective of this research plan is to obtain an integrated data base on pollutants and ecosystem structure and function at a remote study site. The methods tested in this project will be used to acquire these data from a systems approach. This includes multimedia monitoring of air and water quality, soils, and forest, stream, and lake ecosystems. 71 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs

  10. Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

    1989-01-01

    A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

  11. Land-based approach to evaluate sustainable land management and adaptive capacity of ecosystems/lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2015-04-01

    A number of new concepts and paradigms appeared during last decades, such as sustainable land management (SLM), climate change (CC) adaptation, environmental services, ecosystem health, and others. All of these initiatives still not having the common scientific platform although some agreements in terminology were reached, schemes of links and feedback loops created, and some models developed. Nevertheless, in spite of all these scientific achievements, the land related issues are still not in the focus of CC adaptation and mitigation. The last did not grow much beyond the "greenhouse gases" (GHG) concept, which makes land degradation as the "forgotten side of climate change" The possible decision to integrate concepts of climate and desertification/land degradation could be consideration of the "GHG" approach providing global solution, and "land" approach providing local solution covering other "locally manifesting" issues of global importance (biodiversity conservation, food security, disasters and risks, etc.) to serve as a central concept among those. SLM concept is a land-based approach, which includes the concepts of both ecosystem-based approach (EbA) and community-based approach (CbA). SLM can serve as in integral CC adaptation strategy, being based on the statement "the more healthy and resilient the system is, the less vulnerable and more adaptive it will be to any external changes and forces, including climate" The biggest scientific issue is the methods to evaluate the SLM and results of the SLM investments. We suggest using the approach based on the understanding of the balance or equilibrium of the land and nature components as the major sign of the sustainable system. Prom this point of view it is easier to understand the state of the ecosystem stress, size of the "health", range of adaptive capacity, drivers of degradation and SLM nature, as well as the extended land use, and the concept of environmental land management as the improved SLM approach

  12. Complex Effects of Ecosystem Engineer Loss on Benthic Ecosystem Response to Detrital Macroalgae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Rossi

    Full Text Available Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies the response to macroalgal detrital enrichment of sediment biogeochemical properties, microphytobenthos and macrofauna assemblages. A field manipulative experiment was done on an intertidal sandflat (Oosterschelde estuary, The Netherlands. Lugworms were deliberately excluded from 1× m sediment plots and different amounts of detrital Ulva (0, 200 or 600 g Wet Weight were added twice. Sediment biogeochemistry changes were evaluated through benthic respiration, sediment organic carbon content and porewater inorganic carbon as well as detrital macroalgae remaining in the sediment one month after enrichment. Microalgal biomass and macrofauna composition were measured at the same time. Macroalgal carbon mineralization and transfer to the benthic consumers were also investigated during decomposition at low enrichment level (200 g WW. The interaction between lugworm exclusion and detrital enrichment did not modify sediment organic carbon or benthic respiration. Weak but significant changes were instead found for porewater inorganic carbon and microalgal biomass. Lugworm exclusion caused an increase of porewater carbon and a decrease of microalgal biomass, while detrital enrichment drove these values back to values typical of lugworm-dominated sediments. Lugworm exclusion also decreased the amount of macroalgae remaining into the sediment and accelerated detrital carbon mineralization and CO2 release to the water column. Eventually, the interaction between lugworm exclusion and detrital enrichment affected macrofauna abundance and diversity, which collapsed at high level of enrichment only when the lugworms were present. This study reveals that in nature the

  13. Complex Effects of Ecosystem Engineer Loss on Benthic Ecosystem Response to Detrital Macroalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Francesca; Gribsholt, Britta; Gazeau, Frederic; Di Santo, Valentina; Middelburg, Jack J

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies the response to macroalgal detrital enrichment of sediment biogeochemical properties, microphytobenthos and macrofauna assemblages. A field manipulative experiment was done on an intertidal sandflat (Oosterschelde estuary, The Netherlands). Lugworms were deliberately excluded from 1× m sediment plots and different amounts of detrital Ulva (0, 200 or 600 g Wet Weight) were added twice. Sediment biogeochemistry changes were evaluated through benthic respiration, sediment organic carbon content and porewater inorganic carbon as well as detrital macroalgae remaining in the sediment one month after enrichment. Microalgal biomass and macrofauna composition were measured at the same time. Macroalgal carbon mineralization and transfer to the benthic consumers were also investigated during decomposition at low enrichment level (200 g WW). The interaction between lugworm exclusion and detrital enrichment did not modify sediment organic carbon or benthic respiration. Weak but significant changes were instead found for porewater inorganic carbon and microalgal biomass. Lugworm exclusion caused an increase of porewater carbon and a decrease of microalgal biomass, while detrital enrichment drove these values back to values typical of lugworm-dominated sediments. Lugworm exclusion also decreased the amount of macroalgae remaining into the sediment and accelerated detrital carbon mineralization and CO2 release to the water column. Eventually, the interaction between lugworm exclusion and detrital enrichment affected macrofauna abundance and diversity, which collapsed at high level of enrichment only when the lugworms were present. This study reveals that in nature the role of this

  14. Strategic ecosystems of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquez Calle German

    2002-01-01

    The author relates the ecosystems in Colombia, he makes a relationship between ecosystems and population, utility of the ecosystems, transformation of the ecosystems and poverty and he shows a methodology of identification of strategic ecosystems

  15. Do Holocaust survivors show increased vulnerability or resilience to post-Holocaust cumulative adversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

    2010-06-01

    Prior trauma can hinder coping with additional adversity or inoculate against the effect of recurrent adversity. The present study further addressed this issue by examining whether a subsample of Holocaust survivors and comparison groups, drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, were differentially affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity. Post-Holocaust cumulative adversity had a stronger effect on the lifetime depression of Holocaust survivors than on that of comparisons. However, comparisons were more negatively affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity when examining markers of physical and cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that previous trauma can both sensitize and immunize, as Holocaust survivors show general resilience intertwined with specific vulnerability when confronted with additional cumulative adversity.

  16. Cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiang Yanxun; Deng Mingxi

    2008-01-01

    The physical process of cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate is presented by using the second-order perturbation and the technique of nonlinear reflection of acoustic waves at an interface. In general, the cumulative second-harmonic generation of a dispersive guided wave propagation does not occur. However, the present paper shows that the second-harmonic of Lamb wave propagation arising from the nonlinear interaction of the partial bulk acoustic waves and the restriction of the three boundaries of the solid plates does have a cumulative growth effect if some conditions are satisfied. Through boundary condition and initial condition of excitation, the analytical expression of cumulative second-harmonic of Lamb waves propagation is determined. Numerical results show the cumulative effect of Lamb waves on second-harmonic field patterns. (classical areas of phenomenology)

  17. Re-irradiation: Outcome, cumulative dose and toxicity in patients retreated with stereotactic radiotherapy in the abdominal or pelvic region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Abusaris (Huda); M.S. Hoogeman (Mischa); J.J.M.E. Nuyttens (Joost)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe purpose of the present study was to explore the outcome, cumulative dose in tumor and organs at risk and toxicity after extra-cranial stereotactic re-irradiation. Twenty-seven patients were evaluated who had been re-irradiated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) after

  18. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  19. Patterns of prednisone use during pregnancy in women with rheumatoid arthritis: Daily and cumulative dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmsten, Kristin; Rolland, Matthieu; Hebert, Mary F; Clowse, Megan E B; Schatz, Michael; Xu, Ronghui; Chambers, Christina D

    2018-04-01

    To characterize prednisone use in pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis using individual-level heat-maps and clustering individual trajectories of prednisone dose, and to evaluate the association between prednisone dose trajectory groups and gestational length. This study included pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis who enrolled in the MotherToBaby Autoimmune Diseases in Pregnancy Study (2003-2014) before gestational week 20 and reported prednisone use without another oral glucocorticoid during pregnancy (n = 254). Information on medication use and pregnancy outcomes was collected by telephone interview plus by medical record review. Prednisone daily dose and cumulative dose were plotted by gestational day using a heat map for each individual. K-means clustering was used to cluster individual trajectories of prednisone dose into groups. The associations between trajectory group and demographics, disease severity measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire at enrollment, and gestational length were evaluated. Women used prednisone 3 to 292 days during pregnancy, with daily doses ranging from <1 to 60 mg. Total cumulative dose ranged from 8 to 6225 mg. Disease severity, non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, and gestational length varied significantly by trajectory group. After adjusting for disease severity, non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, and other covariates, the highest vs lowest daily dose trajectory group was associated with reduced gestational age at delivery (β: -2.3 weeks (95%: -3.4, -1.3)), as was the highest vs lowest cumulative dose trajectory group (β: -2.6 weeks (95%: -3.6, -1.5)). In pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis, patterns of higher prednisone dose were associated with shorter gestational length compared with lower dose. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. An integrated framework for evaluating the effects of deforestation on ecosystem services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, X P; Huang, C; Townshend, J R

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation often results in massive carbon emissions and loss of ecosystem services. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to quantitatively derive changes in forest carbon stock and changes in the economic value of forest carbon due to deforestation. Combining the best available remote sensing and socioeconomic datasets, this approach establishes a comprehensive baseline of deforestation in terms of area, carbon and monetary value change. We applied this end-to-end evaluation method in the Brazilian state of Rondonia to assess the ecological and economic effects of its recent deforestation from 2000 to 2005. Our results suggest that deforestation occurred at an average rate of 2834 km 2 /yr during the study period, leading to 31 TgC/yr ''committed carbon emissions'' from deforestation. Coupling with the social cost of carbon at $23/tC and a market discount rate at 7%, this translates to $622 million U.S. dollars/yr loss in the economic value of forest carbon

  1. The cumulative burden of surviving childhood cancer: an initial report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Ness, Kirsten K; Baassiri, Malek; Eissa, Hesham; Yeo, Frederick; Chemaitilly, Wassim; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Bass, Johnnie; Bishop, Michael W; Shelton, Kyla; Lu, Lu; Huang, Sujuan; Li, Zhenghong; Caron, Eric; Lanctot, Jennifer; Howell, Carrie; Folse, Timothy; Joshi, Vijaya; Green, Daniel M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Krull, Kevin R; Brinkman, Tara M; Khan, Raja B; Srivastava, Deo K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

    2017-12-09

    Survivors of childhood cancer develop early and severe chronic health conditions (CHCs). A quantitative landscape of morbidity of survivors, however, has not been described. We aimed to describe the cumulative burden of curative cancer therapy in a clinically assessed ageing population of long-term survivors of childhood cancer. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE) retrospectively collected data on CHCs in all patients treated for childhood cancer at the St Jude Children's Research Hospital who survived 10 years or longer from initial diagnosis and were 18 years or older as of June 30, 2015. Age-matched and sex-frequency-matched community controls were used for comparison. 21 treatment exposure variables were included in the analysis, with data abstracted from medical records. 168 CHCs for all participants were graded for severity using a modified Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events. Multiple imputation with predictive mean matching was used for missing occurrences and grades of CHCs in the survivors who were not clinically evaluable. Mean cumulative count was used for descriptive cumulative burden analysis and marked-point-process regression was used for inferential cumulative burden analysis. Of 5522 patients treated for childhood cancer at St Jude Children's Research Hospital who had complete records, survived 10 years or longer, and were 18 years or older at time of study, 3010 (54·5%) were alive, had enrolled, and had had prospective clinical assessment. 2512 (45·5%) of the 5522 patients were not clinically evaluable. The cumulative incidence of CHCs at age 50 years was 99·9% (95% CI 99·9-99·9) for grade 1-5 CHCs and 96·0% (95% CI 95·3-96·8%) for grade 3-5 CHCs. By age 50 years, a survivor had experienced, on average, 17·1 (95% CI 16·2-18·1) CHCs of any grade, of which 4·7 (4·6-4·9) were CHCs of grade 3-5. The cumulative burden in matched community controls of grade 1-5 CHCs was 9·2 (95% CI 7·9-10·6; pgrade 3-5 CHCs was 2·3 (1

  2. Transformation of Digital Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Hedman, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    the Digital Ecosystem Technology Transformation (DETT) framework for explaining technology-based transformation of digital ecosystems by integrating theories of business and technology ecosystems. The framework depicts ecosystem transformation as distributed and emergent from micro-, meso-, and macro- level......In digital ecosystems, the fusion relation between business and technology means that the decision of technical compatibility of the offering is also the decision of how to position the firm relative to the coopetive relations that characterize business ecosystems. In this article we develop...... coopetition. The DETT framework consists an alternative to the existing explanations of digital ecosystem transformation as the rational management of one central actor balancing ecosystem tensions. We illustrate the use of the framework by a case study of transformation in the digital payment ecosystem...

  3. Evaluation of gamma radiation cumulative exposure monitoring system in the Nuclear Technology Development Center (CDTN) with thermoluminescent dosimeters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingues, Danieli S.; Barreto, Alberto A.; Siqueira, Gessilane M.; Oliveira, Eugênio M.; Silva, Robson L.; Belo, Luiz Cláudio M.

    2017-01-01

    Cumulative exposure to gamma radiation is monitored at the Nuclear Technology Development Center - CDTN, located on the campus of the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte - MG, since 1986. This monitoring is part of the Institution's Environmental Monitoring Program. The measurement is carried out through the use of thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD's), which are placed in the perimeter of the CDTN property, distanced approximately 50 m each other, and at the air sampling stations, totaling 36 sampling points. The TLDs are positioned one meter from the ground, inside a PVC pipe where they remain exposed for a period of approximately three months. The objective of this work is to present and evaluate the results of this monitoring by investigating the dose values of gamma radiation (Dose Equivalent to Photons) obtained. Another important issue presented is about some failures identified in certain periods. There were problems with the sampling methodology and changes were proposed in the shelters to avoid contact of TLDs with excess moisture, which can compromise the results and the equipment of measurement of the thermoluminescence of crystals. The change was made at a sampling point and the results were compared with the historical data in the last 30 years. (author)

  4. Evaluation of gamma radiation cumulative exposure monitoring system in the Nuclear Technology Development Center (CDTN) with thermoluminescent dosimeters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingues, Danieli S.; Barreto, Alberto A.; Siqueira, Gessilane M.; Oliveira, Eugênio M.; Silva, Robson L.; Belo, Luiz Cláudio M., E-mail: danielisilva@ymail.com, E-mail: aab@cdtn.br, E-mail: gessilane.siqueira@cdtn.br, E-mail: emo@cdtn.br, E-mail: rls@cdtn.br, E-mail: lcmb@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative exposure to gamma radiation is monitored at the Nuclear Technology Development Center - CDTN, located on the campus of the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte - MG, since 1986. This monitoring is part of the Institution's Environmental Monitoring Program. The measurement is carried out through the use of thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD's), which are placed in the perimeter of the CDTN property, distanced approximately 50 m each other, and at the air sampling stations, totaling 36 sampling points. The TLDs are positioned one meter from the ground, inside a PVC pipe where they remain exposed for a period of approximately three months. The objective of this work is to present and evaluate the results of this monitoring by investigating the dose values of gamma radiation (Dose Equivalent to Photons) obtained. Another important issue presented is about some failures identified in certain periods. There were problems with the sampling methodology and changes were proposed in the shelters to avoid contact of TLDs with excess moisture, which can compromise the results and the equipment of measurement of the thermoluminescence of crystals. The change was made at a sampling point and the results were compared with the historical data in the last 30 years. (author)

  5. The use of efficiency frontiers to evaluate the optimal land cover and irrigation practices for economic returns and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Kent; West, Grant; Xu, Ying

    2017-04-01

    Efficiency frontiers are a useful tool for governmental agencies that balance the protection of ecosystem services with the economic returns from an agricultural landscape because the tool illustrates that a compromise of objectives generates greater value to society than optimizing a sole objective. Policy makers facing the problem of groundwater overdraft on an agricultural landscape want to know if regulations or irrigation technology adoption will enhance both economic and ecosystem service benefits. Conjunctive water management with on-farm reservoirs and tail water recovery system is frequently suggested to alleviate groundwater and surface water quality problems in the Lower Mississippi River Basin of the United States, and this study evaluates the consequence of the adoption of this technology for the balance of ecosystem service and economic objectives. A compromise of objectives that maximizes the value to society provides 76% more value to society without reservoirs and 66% more value to society with reservoirs than the sole objective of economic returns. The reservoirs help an agricultural landscape maximizing economic returns to align more closely with a landscape maximizing the value to society, although there are still significant gains possible from finding a landscape that directly compromises on the objectives.

  6. Ecosystem health evaluation system of the water-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Li-ao; YUAN Hui; ZHANG Yan-hui; HU Gang

    2004-01-01

    This paper discribes the definition of ecosystem health for the water-level flutuation zone of the Three Gorges Region and puts forward an evaluation system involving indicators in three groups: 1) structural indicators comprise slope, biodiversity,environmental capacity, stability, restoration ability and damage situation; 2) functional indicators including probability of geological hazard, erosion rate, habitat rate, land use intension and days of tourist season; 3) environmental indicatiors made up of population quality, potential intension of human, ground water quality, ambient air quality, wastewater treatment rate, pesticide use rate, fertilizer use rate, environmental management and public participation. In the design of the system, the subject zone is regarded as the type similar to wetland and the impacts of human activities on the zone are attached great importance to.

  7. An Integrated Cumulative Transformation and Feature Fusion Approach for Bearing Degradation Prognostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixiang Duan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aimed at degradation prognostics of a rolling bearing, this paper proposed a novel cumulative transformation algorithm for data processing and a feature fusion technique for bearing degradation assessment. First, a cumulative transformation is presented to map the original features extracted from a vibration signal to their respective cumulative forms. The technique not only makes the extracted features show a monotonic trend but also reduces the fluctuation; such properties are more propitious to reflect the bearing degradation trend. Then, a new degradation index system is constructed, which fuses multidimensional cumulative features by kernel principal component analysis (KPCA. Finally, an extreme learning machine model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed to predict the degradation trend. The model performance is experimentally validated with a whole-life experiment of a rolling bearing. The results prove that the proposed method reflects the bearing degradation process clearly and achieves a good balance between model accuracy and complexity.

  8. On the usefulness of ecosystem services evaluations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belmontes, J. A.

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available A ground breaking paper by COSTANZA et al. published in Nature this year has led to an intense debate about the potential, and convenience of making economical valuations of the services provided by ecosystems. This debate has been encouraged by the journal, by giving Internet free access to the paper, as well as by the International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE and the Communications for a Sustainable Future (CSF who had co-exponsored an Online Forum offering the possibility to submit opinions to their web site. In the present work, we resume and analyse these opinions. In spite of potentially enormous technical difficulties, and strong ethic arguments against it, many consider worth the effort to deep into the economical value of the services provided by ecosystems. It is considered that this kind of valuations can become important ingredients of the conservationist debate, since monetary value is a measure that can be understood by the society as a whole.

    Un artículo polémico escrito por COSTANZA et al., publicado en Nature el pasado año, ha provocado un intenso debate sobre el potencial y la conveniencia de realizar valoraciones económicas de las funciones o beneficios proporcionados por los ecosistemas. Este debate ha sido estimulado por la revista, dando libre acceso al artículo en Internet, y también por la International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE y Communications for a Sustainable Future (CSF, quienes han ofrecido la posibilidad de remitir opiniones a su página de la World Wide Web. En este trabajo se resumen y analizan estas opiniones. A pesar de las enormes dificultades técnicas y de sus importantes problemas éticos, muchos consideran que merece la pena el esfuerzo de realizar valoraciones de los servicios proporcionados por los ecosistemas. Se considera que. estas valoraciones pueden ser elementos importantes para el debate conservacionista, ya que el valor monetario es una medida que puede ser

  9. Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

    2015-01-01

    The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

  10. Social-ecological drivers of multiple ecosystem services: what variables explain patterns of ecosystem services across the Norrström drainage basin?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan Meacham

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In human dominated landscapes many diverse, and often antagonistic, human activities are intentionally and inadvertently determining the supply of various ecosystem services. Understanding how different social and ecological factors shape the availability of ecosystem services is essential for fair and effective policy and management. In this paper, we evaluate how well alternative social-ecological models of human impact on ecosystems explain patterns of 16 ecosystem services (ES across the 62 municipalities of the Norrström drainage basin in Sweden. We test four models of human impact on ecosystems, land use, ecological modernization, ecological footprint, and location theory, and test their ability to predict both individual ES and bundles of ES. We find that different models do best to predict different types of individual ES. Land use is the best model for predicting provisioning services, standing water quality, biodiversity appreciation, and cross-country skiing, while other models work better for the remaining services. However, this range of models is not able to predict some of the cultural ES. ES bundles are predicted worse than individual ES by these models, but provide a clear picture of variation in multiple ecosystem services based on limited information. Based on our results, we offer suggestions on how social-ecological modeling and assessments of ecosystems can be further developed.

  11. The Scarring Effects of Bankruptcy: Cumulative Disadvantage across Credit and Labor Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroto, Michelle

    2012-01-01

    As the recent economic crisis has demonstrated, inequality often spans credit and labor markets, supporting a system of cumulative disadvantage. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this research draws on stigma, cumulative disadvantage and status characteristics theories to examine whether credit and labor markets intersect…

  12. Use of experimental ecosystems in regulatory decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Point, Thomas W.; Perry, James A.

    1989-09-01

    Tiered testing for the effects of chemicals on aquatic ecosystems has begun to include tests at the ecosystem level as a component in pesticide regristration. Because such tests are expensive, regulators and industry need to know what additional information they can gain from such tests relative to the costs of the simpler single-species toxicity bioassays. Requirements for ecosystem-level testing have developed because resource managers have not fully understood the implications of potential damage to resources without having evaluations of the predicted impacts under field conditions. We review approaches taken in the use of experimental ecosystems, discuss benefits and limitations of small- and large-scale ecosystem tests, and point to correlative approaches between laboratory and field toxicity testing. Laboratory experimental ecosystems (microcosms) have been successfully used to measure contaminant bioavailability, to determine routes of uptake in moderately complex aquatic systems, and to isolate factors modifying contaminant uptake into the biota. Such factors cannot be as readily studied in outdoor experimental ecosystems because direct cause-and-effect relations are often confounded and difficult to isolate. However, laboratory tests can be designed to quantify the relations among three variables: known concentrations of Stressors; specific sublethal behavioral, biochemical, and physiological effects displayed by organisms; and responses that have been observed in ecosystem-level analyses. For regulatory purposes, the specificity of test results determines how widely they can be applied. Ecotoxicological research should be directed at attempts to identify instances where single-species testing would be the appropriate level of analysis for identifying critical ecological endpoints and for clarifying relationships between ecosystem structure and function, and where it would be inadequate for a given level of analysis.

  13. Integrating ecosystem-service tradeoffs into land-use decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Goldstein, Joshua H.; Caldarone, Giorgio; Duarte, Thomas Kaeo; Ennaanay, Driss; Hannahs, Neil; Mendoza, Guillermo; Polasky, Stephen; Wolny, Stacie; Daily, Gretchen C.

    2012-01-01

    Recent high-profile efforts have called for integrating ecosystem-service values into important societal decisions, but there are few demonstrations of this approach in practice. We quantified ecosystem-service values to help the largest private landowner in Hawaii, Kamehameha Schools, design a land-use development plan that balances multiple private and public values on its North Shore land holdings (Island of O’ahu) of ∼10,600 ha. We used the InVEST software tool to evaluate the environment...

  14. Study on the ecosystem construction of using ecopath model in inland waterway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjie; Bai, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ning; Shou, Youping

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, Ecopath with Ecosim 5.1 software is used to simulate the constructed water ecosystem of inland waterway. According to the characteristics of feeding relationship, the ecopath model of water ecosystem is divided into seven functional groups: phytoplankton, hydrophyte, zooplankton, herbivorous, omnivorous, polychaetes and detritus. By analyzing the important ecological parameters of the ecosystem, such as biomass, biomass / biomass, consumption / biomass, trophic level and ecological nutrient conversion efficiency, the software integrates the energy flow process of the ecosystem, the ratio of the total net primary production and the sum of all respiratory flows is 1.314, it’s indicating that the ecosystem is equilibrium. The research method of this paper can be widely used to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem of the domestic river.

  15. The impact of ergonomics intervention on trunk posture and cumulative compression load among carpet weavers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshari, Davood; Motamedzade, Majid; Salehi, Reza; Soltanian, Alir Raze

    2015-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders of back among weavers are prevalent. Epidemiological studies have shown an association between poor working postures and back disorders among carpet weavers. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the impact of the traditional (A) and ergonomically designed (B) workstations on trunk posture and cumulative compression load in carpet weavers. In this study, subtasks were identified in terms of stressful postures and carpet weaving process. Postural data were collected during knotting and compacting subtasks using inclinometer during four hours for each workstation. Postural data, weight and height of the weavers were entered into the University of Michigan three-dimensional static biomechanical model for estimation of the compression load and cumulative load were estimated from the resultant load and exposure time. Thirteen healthy carpet weavers (four males and nine females) participated in the study. Median trunk flexion angle was reduced with workstation B during knotting subtask (18° versus 8.5°, pergonomically designed workstation.

  16. Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.

    1979-01-01

    The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

  17. Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

  18. Combining multiple ecosystem productivity measurements to constrain carbon uptake estimates in semiarid grasslands and shrublands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, G. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Collins, S. L.; Litvak, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Recent observational and modeling studies have indicated that semiarid ecosystems are more dynamic contributors to the global carbon budget than once thought. Semiarid carbon fluxes, however, are generally small, with high interannual and spatial variability, which suggests that validating their global significance may depend on examining multiple productivity measures and their associated uncertainties and inconsistencies. We examined ecosystem productivity from eddy covariance (NEE), harvest (NPP), and terrestrial biome models (NEPm) at two very similar grassland sites and one creosote shrubland site in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge of central New Mexico, USA. Our goal was to assess site and methodological correspondence in annual carbon uptake, patterns of interannual variability, and measurement uncertainty. One grassland site was a perennial carbon source losing 30 g C m-2 per year on average, while the other two sites were carbon sources or sinks depending on the year, with average net uptake of 5 and 25 g C m-2 per year at the grassland and shrubland site, respectively. Uncertainty values for cumulative annual NEE overlapped between the three sites in most years. When combined, aboveground and belowground annual NPP measurements were 15% higher than annual NEE values and did not confirm a loss of carbon at any site in any year. Despite differences in mean site carbon balance, year-to-year changes in cumulative annual NEE and NPP were similar at all sites with years 2010 and 2013 being favorable for carbon uptake and 2011 and 2012 being unfavorable at all sites. Modeled NEPm data for a number of nearby grid cells reproduced only a fraction of the observed range in carbon uptake and its interannual variability. These three sites are highly similar in location and climate and multiple carbon flux measurements confirm the high interannual variability in carbon flux. The exact magnitude of these fluxes, however, remains difficult to discern.

  19. Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

    2018-06-01

    A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

  20. Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2018-01-01

    According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  1. Fishing for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Kevin L; Pegg, Mark A; Cole, Nicholas W; Siddons, Stephen F; Fedele, Alexis D; Harmon, Brian S; Ruskamp, Ryan L; Turner, Dylan R; Uerling, Caleb C

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Evaluating the effects of future climate change and elevated CO2 on the water use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Peng, C.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.

    2011-01-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in climate change and hydrological studies in relation to how it links ecosystem carbon cycles and hydrological cycles together. However, obtaining reliable WUE results based on site-level flux data remains a great challenge when scaling up to larger regional zones. Biophysical, process-based ecosystem models are powerful tools to study WUE at large spatial and temporal scales. The Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on ecosystem-level WUE (defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET)) in relation to terrestrial ecosystems in China for 2009–2099. Climate scenario data (IPCC SRES A2 and SRES B1) generated from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) was used in the simulations. Seven simulations were implemented according to the assemblage of different elevated CO2 concentrations scenarios and different climate change scenarios. Analysis suggests that (1) further elevated CO2concentrations will significantly enhance the WUE over China by the end of the twenty-first century, especially in forest areas; (2) effects of climate change on WUE will vary for different geographical regions in China with negative effects occurring primarily in southern regions and positive effects occurring primarily in high latitude and altitude regions (Tibetan Plateau); (3) WUE will maintain the current levels for 2009–2099 under the constant climate scenario (i.e. using mean climate condition of 1951–2006 and CO2concentrations of the 2008 level); and (4) WUE will decrease with the increase of water resource restriction (expressed as evaporation ratio) among different ecosystems.

  3. Assessing environmental impacts on stream water quality: the use of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference approaches to deforestation of the Hafren Forest, mid-Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Neal

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for examining the impacts of disturbance on stream water quality based on paired catchment “controlâ€? and “responseâ€? water quality time series is described in relation to diagrams of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference. The paper describes the equations used and illustrates the patterns expected for idealised flux changes followed by an application to stream water quality data for a spruce forested catchment, the Hore, subjected to clear fell. The water quality determinands examined are sodium, chloride, nitrate, calcium and acid neutralisation capacity. The anticipated effects of felling are shown in relation to reduction in mist capture and nitrate release with felling as well as to the influence of weathering and cation exchange mechanisms, but in a much clearer way than observed previously using other approaches. Keywords: Plynlimon, stream, Hore, acid neutralisation capacity, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sodium, cumulative flux, flux

  4. The role of factorial cumulants in reactor neutron noise theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Sena, G.

    1979-01-01

    The physical meaning and the combinatorial implications of the factorial cumulant of a state variable such as the number of neutrons or the number of neutron counts are specified. Features of the presentation are: (1) the fission process is treated in its entirety without the customary binary emission restriction, (b) the introduction of the factorial cumulants helps in reducing the complexity of the mathematical problems, (c) all the solutions can be obtained analytically. Only the ergodic hypothesis for the neutron population evolution is dealt with. (author)

  5. Acute and Cumulative Effects of Unmodified 50-nm Nano-ZnO on Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Tao; Zhang, Shu-Hui; Zhang, Ji-Liang; Hao, Xue-Qin; Yang, Fan; Zhang, Cai; Yang, Zi-Jun; Zhang, Meng-Yu; Wang, Jie

    2018-01-02

    Nanometer zinc oxide (nano-ZnO) is widely used in diverse industrial and agricultural fields. Due to the extensive contact humans have with these particles, it is crucial to understand the potential effects that nano-ZnO have on human health. Currently, information related to the toxicity and mechanisms of nano-ZnO is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate acute and cumulative toxic effects of 50-nm unmodified ZnO in mice. This investigation will seek to establish median lethal dose (LD50), a cumulative coefficient, and target organs. The acute and cumulative toxicity was investigated by Karber's method and via a dose-increasing method, respectively. During the experiment, clinical signs, mortality, body weights, hematology, serum biochemistry, gross pathology, organ weight, and histopathology were examined. The LD50 was 5177-mg/kg·bw; the 95% confidence limits for the LD50 were 5116-5238-mg/kg·bw. It could be concluded that the liver, kidney, lung, and gastrointestinal tract were target organs for the 50-nm nano-ZnO acute oral treatment. The cumulative coefficient (K) was 1.9 which indicated that the cumulative toxicity was apparent. The results also indicated that the liver, kidney, lung, and pancrea were target organs for 50-nm nano-ZnO cumulative oral exposure and might be target organs for subchronic and chronic toxicity of oral administered 50-nm ZnO.

  6. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California. PMID:29659481

  7. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul S. Liévanos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  8. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liévanos, Raoul S

    2018-04-16

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  9. Ecosystem degradation in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, B.N.

    1990-01-01

    Environmental and ecosystem studies have assumed greater relevance in the last decade of the twentieth century than even before. The urban settlements are becoming over-crowded and industries are increasingly polluting the air, water and sound in our larger metropolises. Degradation of different types of ecosystem are discussed in this book, Ecosystem Degradation in India. The book has been divided into seven chapters: Introduction, Coastal and Delta Ecosystem, River Basin Ecosystem, Mountain Ecosystem, Forest Ecosystem, Urban Ecosystem and the last chapter deals with the Environmental Problems and Planning. In the introduction the environmental and ecosystem degradation problems in India is highlighted as a whole while in other chapters mostly case studies by experts who know their respective terrain very intimately are included. The case study papers cover most part of India and deal with local problems, stretching from east coast to west coast and from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. (author)

  10. Turning stumbling blocks into stepping stones in the analysis of cumulative impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid

    2004-01-01

    Federal and state legislation, such as the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act, require that responsible agency staff consider the cumulative impacts of proposed activities before permits are issued for certain kinds of public or private projects. The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ 1997) defined a cumulative impact as...

  11. Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piper Jake

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

  12. Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascoigne, W.R.

    2011-01-01

    Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input

  13. A Review of Non-Chemical Stressors and Their Importance in Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative exposure/risk assessments need to include non-chemical stressors as well as human activities and chemical data. Multiple stressor research can offer information on the interactions between chemical and non-chemical stressors needed for cumulative risk assessment resea...

  14. Aspects of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of Northeastern Smaaland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tagesson, Torbern [Lund Univ., Geobiosphere Science Centre (Sweden). Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis

    2006-02-15

    Boreal and temperate ecosystems of the northern hemisphere are important for the future development of global climate. In this study, the carbon cycle has been studied in a pine forest, a meadow, a spruce forest and two deciduous forests in the Simpevarp investigation area in southern Sweden (57 deg 5 min N, 34 deg 55 min E). Ground respiration and ground Gross Primary Production (GPP) has been measured three times during spring 2004 with the closed chamber technique. Soil temperature, soil moisture and Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) were also measured. An exponential regression with ground respiration against soil temperature was used to extrapolate respiration over spring 2004. A logarithmic regression with ground GPP against PAR was used to extrapolate GPP in meadow over spring 2004. Ground respiration is affected by soil temperature in all ecosystems but pine, but still it only explains a small part of the variation in respiration and this indicates that other abiotic factors also have an influence. Soil moisture affects respiration in spruce and one of the deciduous ecosystems. A comparison between measured and extrapolated ground respiration indicated that soil temperature could be used to extrapolate ground respiration. PAR is the main factor influencing GPP in all ecosystems but pine, still it could not be used to extrapolate GPP in meadow since too few measurements were done and they were from different periods of spring. Soil moisture did not have any significant effect on GPP. A Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, a DGVM called LPJ-GUESS, was downscaled to the Simpevarp investigation area. The downscaled DGVM was evaluated against measured respiration and soil organic acids for all five ecosystems. In meadow, it was evaluated against Net Primary Production, NPP. For the forest ecosystems, it was evaluated against tree layer carbon pools. The evaluation indicated that the DGVM is reasonably well downscaled to the Simpevarp investigation area and

  15. Aspects of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of Northeastern Smaaland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tagesson, Torbern

    2006-02-01

    Boreal and temperate ecosystems of the northern hemisphere are important for the future development of global climate. In this study, the carbon cycle has been studied in a pine forest, a meadow, a spruce forest and two deciduous forests in the Simpevarp investigation area in southern Sweden (57 deg 5 min N, 34 deg 55 min E). Ground respiration and ground Gross Primary Production (GPP) has been measured three times during spring 2004 with the closed chamber technique. Soil temperature, soil moisture and Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) were also measured. An exponential regression with ground respiration against soil temperature was used to extrapolate respiration over spring 2004. A logarithmic regression with ground GPP against PAR was used to extrapolate GPP in meadow over spring 2004. Ground respiration is affected by soil temperature in all ecosystems but pine, but still it only explains a small part of the variation in respiration and this indicates that other abiotic factors also have an influence. Soil moisture affects respiration in spruce and one of the deciduous ecosystems. A comparison between measured and extrapolated ground respiration indicated that soil temperature could be used to extrapolate ground respiration. PAR is the main factor influencing GPP in all ecosystems but pine, still it could not be used to extrapolate GPP in meadow since too few measurements were done and they were from different periods of spring. Soil moisture did not have any significant effect on GPP. A Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, a DGVM called LPJ-GUESS, was downscaled to the Simpevarp investigation area. The downscaled DGVM was evaluated against measured respiration and soil organic acids for all five ecosystems. In meadow, it was evaluated against Net Primary Production, NPP. For the forest ecosystems, it was evaluated against tree layer carbon pools. The evaluation indicated that the DGVM is reasonably well downscaled to the Simpevarp investigation area and

  16. A Holistic Approach to the Evaluation of the Montado Ecosystem Using Proximal Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Serrano

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Montado is a silvo-pastoral system characterized by open canopy woodlands with natural or cultivated grassland in the undercover and grazing animals. The aims of this study were to present several proximal sensors with potential to monitor relevant variables in the complex montado ecosystem and demonstrate their application in a case study designed to evaluate the effect of trees on the pasture. This work uses data collected between March and June 2016, at peak of dryland pasture production under typical Mediterranean conditions, in twenty four sampling points, half under tree canopy (UTC and half outside tree canopy (OTC. Correlations were established between pasture biomass and capacitance measured by a commercial probe and between pasture quality and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI measured by a commercial active optical sensor. The interest of altimetric and apparent soil electrical conductivity maps as the first step in the implementation of precision agriculture projects was demonstrated. The use of proximal sensors to monitor soil moisture content, pasture photosynthetically active radiation and temperature helped to explain the influence of trees on pasture productivity and quality. The significant and strong correlations obtained between capacitance and pasture biomass and between NDVI and pasture nutritive value (in terms of crude protein, CP and neutral detergent fibre, NDF can make an important contribution to determination of key components of pasture productivity and quality and implementation of site-specific pasture management. Animal tracking demonstrated its potential to be an important tool for understanding the interaction between various factors and components that interrelate in the montado ecosystem and to support grazing management decisions.

  17. Typology and indicators of ecosystem services for marine spatial planning and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohnke-Henrichs, A.; Baulcomb, C.; Koss, R.; Hussain, S.; Groot, de R.S.

    2013-01-01

    The ecosystem services concept provides both an analytical and communicative tool to identify and quantify the link between human welfare and the environment, and thus to evaluate the ramifications of management interventions. Marine spatial planning (MSP) and Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) are a

  18. Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Frank W.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Soong, Oliver; Stoms, David M.; Dashiell, Stephanie; Hannah, Lee; Wilkinson, Whitney; Dingman, John

    2013-01-01

    This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

  19. Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2012-01-19

    Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

  20. Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies Nos. 67-93, September 1983-February 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-02-01

    C) 0 00 I: Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies September 1983 - February 1989 A Defense S&T Intelligence Special Purpose Document...90 CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER BIBLIOGRAPHIES Nos. 67-93 SEPTEMBER 1983 - FEBRUARY 1989 Date of Report March 31, 19 Vice Director for...RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER DST-2700Z-001-90 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER

  1. The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa Demarni; Deprince, Anne P; Freyd, Jennifer J

    2013-03-01

    Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were constructed to assess the number of different types of traumas experienced that were low (LBTs), moderate (MBTs), or high in betrayal (HBTs). Greater trauma exposure was related to more symptoms of depression, dissociation, and PTSD, with exposure to HBTs contributing the most. Women were more likely to experience HBTs than men, but there were no gender differences in trauma-related symptoms. Appraisals of trauma were predictive of trauma-related symptoms over and above the effects explained by cumulative trauma at each level of betrayal. The survivor's relationship with the perpetrator, the effect of cumulative trauma, and their combined impact on trauma symptomatology are discussed.

  2. Impact evaluation of green-grey infrastructure interaction on built-space integrity: an emerging perspective to urban ecosystem service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwary, Abhishek; Kumar, Prashant

    2014-07-15

    This paper evaluates the role of urban green infrastructure (GI) in maintaining integrity of built-space. The latter is considered as a lateral ecosystem function, worth including in future assessments of integrated ecosystem services. The basic tenet is that integrated green-grey infrastructures (GGIs) would have three influences on built-spaces: (i) reduced wind withering from flow deviation; (ii) reduced material corrosion/degeneration from pollution removal; and (iii) act as a biophysical buffer in altering the micro-climate. A case study is presented, combining the features of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in micro-environmental modelling with the emerging science on interactions of GGIs. The coupled seasonal dynamics of the above three effects are assessed for two building materials (limestone and steel) using the following three scenarios: (i) business as usual (BAU), (ii) summer (REGEN-S), and (iii) winter (REGEN-W). Apparently, integrated ecosystem service from green-grey interaction, as scoped in this paper, has strong seasonal dependence. Compared to BAU our results suggest that REGEN-S leads to slight increment in limestone recession (<10%), mainly from exacerbation in ozone damage, while large reduction in steel recession (up to 37%) is observed. The selection of vegetation species, especially their bVOC emission potential and seasonal foliage profile, appears to play a vital role in determining the impact GI has on the integrity of the neighbouring built-up environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Diversity of arthropod community in transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, D J; Lu, Z Y; Liu, J X; Li, C L; Yang, M S

    2015-12-02

    Poplar-cotton agro-ecosystems are the main agricultural planting modes of plain cotton fields in China. Here, we performed a systematic survey of the diversity and population of arthropod communities in four different combination of poplar-cotton eco-systems, including I) non-transgenic poplar and non-transgenic cotton fields; II) non-transgenic poplar and transgenic cotton fields [Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton]; III) Bt transgenic poplar (high insect resistant strain Pb29) and non-transgenic cotton; and IV) transgenic poplar and transgenic cotton fields, over a period of 3 years. Based on the statistical methods used to investigate community ecology, the effects of transgenic ecosystems on the whole structure of the arthropod community, on the structure of arthropods in the nutritive layer, and on the similarity of arthropod communities were evaluated. The main results were as follows: the transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystem has a stronger inhibitory effect on insect pests and has no impact on the structure of the arthropod community, and therefore, maintains the diversity of the arthropod community. The character index of the community indicated that the structure of the arthropod community of the transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystem was better than that of the poplar-cotton ecosystem, and that system IV had the best structure. As for the abundance of nutritional classes, the transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystem was also better than that of the non-transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystem. The cluster analysis and similarity of arthropod communities between the four different transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystems illustrated that the structure of the arthropod community excelled in the small sample of the transgenic poplar-cotton ecosystems.

  4. Towards ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.; Rathjens, H.; Zwart, S.J.; Hein, L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment-economy interactions. One of the specific features of ecosystem accounting is the distinction between the capacity and the flow of ecosystem services. Ecohydrological modelling to support

  5. The Ecosystem of Startups as a Component of the Innovation Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sytnik Natalia I.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the current theoretical perceptions of the ecosystem of startups and presents the author’s own vision of this entity. It has been proposed to consider the ecosystem of startups as a subsystem of the innovation ecosystem, which aims at creating innovative products and services by startup companies. The ecosystem of startups is an open dynamic system in which the backbone subject is a startup company at various stages of the life cycle. The sustenance subjects in an ecosystem are the organizations, associations and individuals that cause impacts, to varying degrees, on the establishing or development of startups. The activities of the subjects are carried out in the following directions: public regulation, financing, training, information, and infrastructure support for startups. The ecosystem consists of a number of economic, material-and-technical, market, and socio-cultural factors that directly or indirectly influence the actions of the subjects. The vital activity of the ecosystem of startups is maintained by the active interaction of the subjects, connected by a network of internal links with the environment and between themselves.

  6. To what extent can ecosystem services motivate protecting biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, Laura E; De Lara, Michel; Costello, Christopher; Gaines, Steven D

    2017-08-01

    Society increasingly focuses on managing nature for the services it provides people rather than for the existence of particular species. How much biodiversity protection would result from this modified focus? Although biodiversity contributes to ecosystem services, the details of which species are critical, and whether they will go functionally extinct in the future, are fraught with uncertainty. Explicitly considering this uncertainty, we develop an analytical framework to determine how much biodiversity protection would arise solely from optimising net value from an ecosystem service. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we find that protecting a threshold number of species is optimal, and uncertainty surrounding how biodiversity produces services makes it optimal to protect more species than are presumed critical. We define conditions under which the economically optimal protection strategy is to protect all species, no species, and cases in between. We show how the optimal number of species to protect depends upon different relationships between species and services, including considering multiple services. Our analysis provides simple criteria to evaluate when managing for particular ecosystem services could warrant protecting all species, given uncertainty. Evaluating this criterion with empirical estimates from different ecosystems suggests that optimising some services will be more likely to protect most species than others. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  7. 14 CFR Section 18 - Objective Classification-Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... of Changes in Accounting Principles Section 18 Section 18 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE... Objective Classification—Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles 98Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles. Record here the difference between the amount of retained earnings at...

  8. Evaluating the Effects of Fire on Semi-Arid Savanna Ecosystem Productivity Using Integrated Spectral and Gas Exchange Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raub, H. D.; Jimenez, J. R.; Gallery, R. E.; Sutter, L., Jr.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Smith, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    Drylands account for 40% of the land surface and have been identified as increasingly important in driving interannual variability of the land carbon sink. Yet, understanding of dryland seasonal ecosystem productivity dynamics - termed Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) - is limited due to complex interactions between vegetation health, seasonal drought dynamics, a paucity of long-term measurements across these under-studied regions, and unanticipated disturbances from varying fire regimes. For instance, fire disturbance has been found to either greatly reduce post-fire GPP through vegetation mortality or enhance post-fire GPP though increased resource availability (e.g., water, light, nutrients, etc.). Here, we explore post-fire ecosystem recovery by evaluating seasonal GPP dynamics for two Ameriflux eddy covariance flux tower sites within the Santa Rita Experimental Range of southeastern Arizona: 1) the US-SRG savanna site dominated by a mix of grass and woody mesquite vegetation that was burned in May 2017, and 2) the US-SRM savanna site dominated by similar vegetation but unburned for the full measurement record. For each site, we collected leaf-level spectral and gas exchange measurements, as well as leaf-level chemistry and soil chemistry to characterize differences in nutrient availability and microbial activity throughout the 2017 growing season. From spectral data, we derived and evaluated multiple common vegetation metrics, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photochemical reflectivity index (PRI), near-infrared reflectance (NIRv), and MERIS terrestrial chlorophyll index (MTCI). Early results suggest rates of photosynthesis were enhanced at the burned site, with productivity increasing immediately following the onset of monsoonal precipitation; whereas initial photosynthesis at the unburned site remained relatively low following first monsoonal rains. MTCI values for burned vegetation appear to track higher levels of leaf-level nitrogen

  9. Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and the question of cumulative culture: an experimental approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall-Pescini, Sarah; Whiten, Andrew

    2008-07-01

    There is increasing evidence for cultural variations in behaviour among non-human species, but human societies additionally display elaborate cumulative cultural evolution, with successive generations building on earlier achievements. Evidence for cumulative culture in non-human species remains minimal and controversial. Relevant experiments are also lacking. Here we present a first experiment designed to examine chimpanzees' capacity for cumulative social learning. Eleven young chimpanzees were presented with a foraging device, which afforded both a relatively simple and a more complex tool-use technique for extracting honey. The more complex 'probing' technique incorporated the core actions of the simpler 'dipping' one and was also much more productive. In a baseline, exploration condition only two subjects discovered the dipping technique and a solitary instance of probing occurred. Demonstrations of dipping by a familiar human were followed by acquisition of this technique by the five subjects aged three years or above, whilst younger subjects showed a significant increase only in the elements of the dipping technique. By contrast, subsequent demonstrations of the probing task were not followed by acquisition of this more productive technique. Subjects stuck to their habitual dipping method despite an escalating series of demonstrations eventually exceeding 200. Supplementary tests showed this technique is within the capability of chimpanzees of this age. We therefore tentatively conclude that young chimpanzees exhibit a tendency to become 'stuck' on a technique they initially learn, inhibiting cumulative social learning and possibly constraining the species' capacity for cumulative cultural evolution.

  10. Cumulative release to the accessible environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanehiro, B.

    1985-01-01

    The Containment and Isolation Working Group considered issues related to the postclosure behavior of repositories in crystalline rock. This working group was further divided into subgroups to consider the progress since the 1978 GAIN Symposium and identify research needs in the individual areas of regional ground-water flow, ground-water travel time, fractional release, and cumulative release. The analysis and findings of the Fractional Release Subgroup are presented

  11. Long-term nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial agricultural and unmanaged ecosystems in the upper Midwest USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Ilya; Shcherbak, Iurii; Millar, Neville; Kravchenko, Alexandra N; Robertson, G Philip

    2016-11-01

    Differences in soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes among ecosystems are often difficult to evaluate and predict due to high spatial and temporal variabilities and few direct experimental comparisons. For 20 years, we measured N 2 O fluxes in 11 ecosystems in southwest Michigan USA: four annual grain crops (corn-soybean-wheat rotations) managed with conventional, no-till, reduced input, or biologically based/organic inputs; three perennial crops (alfalfa, poplar, and conifers); and four unmanaged ecosystems of different successional age including mature forest. Average N 2 O emissions were higher from annual grain and N-fixing cropping systems than from nonleguminous perennial cropping systems and were low across unmanaged ecosystems. Among annual cropping systems full-rotation fluxes were indistinguishable from one another but rotation phase mattered. For example, those systems with cover crops and reduced fertilizer N emitted more N 2 O during the corn and soybean phases, but during the wheat phase fluxes were ~40% lower. Likewise, no-till did not differ from conventional tillage over the entire rotation but reduced emissions ~20% in the wheat phase and increased emissions 30-80% in the corn and soybean phases. Greenhouse gas intensity for the annual crops (flux per unit yield) was lowest for soybeans produced under conventional management, while for the 11 other crop × management combinations intensities were similar to one another. Among the fertilized systems, emissions ranged from 0.30 to 1.33 kg N 2 O-N ha -1  yr -1 and were best predicted by IPCC Tier 1 and ΔEF emission factor approaches. Annual cumulative fluxes from perennial systems were best explained by soil NO3- pools (r 2  = 0.72) but not so for annual crops, where management differences overrode simple correlations. Daily soil N 2 O emissions were poorly predicted by any measured variables. Overall, long-term measurements reveal lower fluxes in nonlegume perennial vegetation and, for

  12. Complex effects of ecosystem engineer loss on benthic ecosystem response to detrital macroalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, F.; Gribsholt, B.; Gazeau, F.; Di Santo, V.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies

  13. Complex Effects of Ecosystem Engineer Loss on Benthic Ecosystem Response to Detrital Macroalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, F.; Gribsholt, B.; Gazeau, F.; Di Santo, V.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies

  14. Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

    2006-01-01

    window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

  15. Forest restoration, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Globally, forests cover nearly one third of the land area and they contain over 80% of terrestrial biodiversity. Both the extent and quality of forest habitat continue to decrease and the associated loss of biodiversity jeopardizes forest ecosystem functioning and the ability of forests to provide ecosystem services. In the light of the increasing population pressure, it is of major importance not only to conserve, but also to restore forest ecosystems. Ecological restoration has recently started to adopt insights from the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) perspective. Central is the focus on restoring the relation between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here we provide an overview of important considerations related to forest restoration that can be inferred from this BEF-perspective. Restoring multiple forest functions requires multiple species. It is highly unlikely that species-poor plantations, which may be optimal for above-ground biomass production, will outperform species diverse assemblages for a combination of functions, including overall carbon storage and control over water and nutrient flows. Restoring stable forest functions also requires multiple species. In particular in the light of global climatic change scenarios, which predict more frequent extreme disturbances and climatic events, it is important to incorporate insights from the relation between biodiversity and stability of ecosystem functioning into forest restoration projects. Rather than focussing on species per se, focussing on functional diversity of tree species assemblages seems appropriate when selecting tree species for restoration. Finally, also plant genetic diversity and above - below-ground linkages should be considered during the restoration process, as these likely have prominent but until now poorly understood effects at the level of the ecosystem. The BEF-approach provides a useful framework to evaluate forest restoration in an ecosystem functioning context, but

  16. Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

    2017-05-01

    Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

  17. A Comparison of Three Gap Filling Techniques for Eddy Covariance Net Carbon Fluxes in Short Vegetation Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaosong Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is an inevitable problem when measuring CO2, water, and energy fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere by eddy covariance systems. To find the optimum gap-filling method for short vegetations, we review three-methods mean diurnal variation (MDV, look-up tables (LUT, and nonlinear regression (NLR for estimating missing values of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE in eddy covariance time series and evaluate their performance for different artificial gap scenarios based on benchmark datasets from marsh and cropland sites in China. The cumulative errors for three methods have no consistent bias trends, which ranged between −30 and +30 mgCO2 m−2 from May to October at three sites. To reduce sum bias in maximum, combined gap-filling methods were selected for short vegetation. The NLR or LUT method was selected after plant rapidly increasing in spring and before the end of plant growing, and MDV method was used to the other stage. The sum relative error (SRE of optimum method ranged between −2 and +4% for four-gap level at three sites, except for 55% gaps at soybean site, which also obviously reduced standard deviation of error.

  18. Issues in evaluation of ecosystem change in response to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Shevliakova, E.; Kandlikar, M.

    1994-12-31

    Uncertainty analysis of our integrated climate assessment model has revealed the importance of obtaining better market and non-market impacts. Improving market and non-market damage assessments has necessitated advances in the theoretical and applied dimensions of the problem. The assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystems provides a severe test for the new ideas being put forward. This paper provides a brief overview of, (i) the challenges inherent in modeling ecosystem dynamics; (ii) the problem of selecting an appropriate metric of change; and, (iii) the thorny issue of how to place a monetary value on market and non-market impacts. We focus on two central issues in estimation of impacts: (i) before climate change, are the systems being impacted (both ecological and economic) in equilibrium? and (ii) how quickly do ecological and related economic systems adapt to change? In addition, we attempt to be comprehensive in laying out the magnitude of the challenge ahead.

  19. Ecosystem service valuations of mangrove ecosystems to inform decision making and future valuation exercises.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nibedita Mukherjee

    Full Text Available The valuation of ecosystem services is a complex process as it includes several dimensions (ecological, socio-cultural and economic and not all of these can be quantified in monetary units. The aim of this paper is to conduct an ecosystem services valuation study for mangroves ecosystems, the results of which can be used to inform governance and management of mangroves. We used an expert-based participatory approach (the Delphi technique to identify, categorize and rank the various ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems at a global scale. Subsequently we looked for evidence in the existing ecosystem services literature for monetary valuations of these ecosystem service categories throughout the biogeographic distribution of mangroves. We then compared the relative ranking of ecosystem service categories between the monetary valuations and the expert based analysis. The experts identified 16 ecosystem service categories, six of which are not adequately represented in the literature. There was no significant correlation between the expert based valuation (the Delphi technique and the economic valuation, indicating that the scope of valuation of ecosystem services needs to be broadened. Acknowledging this diversity in different valuation approaches, and developing methodological frameworks that foster the pluralism of values in ecosystem services research, are crucial for maintaining the credibility of ecosystem services valuation. To conclude, we use the findings of our dual approach to valuation to make recommendations on how to assess and manage the ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems.

  20. Ecosystem service valuations of mangrove ecosystems to inform decision making and future valuation exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Nibedita; Sutherland, William J; Dicks, Lynn; Hugé, Jean; Koedam, Nico; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid

    2014-01-01

    The valuation of ecosystem services is a complex process as it includes several dimensions (ecological, socio-cultural and economic) and not all of these can be quantified in monetary units. The aim of this paper is to conduct an ecosystem services valuation study for mangroves ecosystems, the results of which can be used to inform governance and management of mangroves. We used an expert-based participatory approach (the Delphi technique) to identify, categorize and rank the various ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems at a global scale. Subsequently we looked for evidence in the existing ecosystem services literature for monetary valuations of these ecosystem service categories throughout the biogeographic distribution of mangroves. We then compared the relative ranking of ecosystem service categories between the monetary valuations and the expert based analysis. The experts identified 16 ecosystem service categories, six of which are not adequately represented in the literature. There was no significant correlation between the expert based valuation (the Delphi technique) and the economic valuation, indicating that the scope of valuation of ecosystem services needs to be broadened. Acknowledging this diversity in different valuation approaches, and developing methodological frameworks that foster the pluralism of values in ecosystem services research, are crucial for maintaining the credibility of ecosystem services valuation. To conclude, we use the findings of our dual approach to valuation to make recommendations on how to assess and manage the ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems.

  1. Typology and indicators of ecosystem services for marine spatial planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhnke-Henrichs, Anne; Baulcomb, Corinne; Koss, Rebecca; Hussain, S Salman; de Groot, Rudolf S

    2013-11-30

    The ecosystem services concept provides both an analytical and communicative tool to identify and quantify the link between human welfare and the environment, and thus to evaluate the ramifications of management interventions. Marine spatial planning (MSP) and Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) are a form of management intervention that has become increasingly popular and important globally. The ecosystem service concept is rarely applied in marine planning and management to date which we argue is due to the lack of a well-structured, systematic classification and assessment of marine ecosystem services. In this paper we not only develop such a typology but also provide guidance to select appropriate indicators for all relevant ecosystem services. We apply this marine-specific ecosystem service typology to MSP and EBM. We thus provide not only a novel theoretical construct but also show how the ecosystem services concept can be used in marine planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A methodology for evaluation of parent-mutant competition using a generalized non-linear ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond L. Czaplewski

    1973-01-01

    A generalized, non-linear population dynamics model of an ecosystem is used to investigate the direction of selective pressures upon a mutant by studying the competition between parent and mutant populations. The model has the advantages of considering selection as operating on the phenotype, of retaining the interaction of the mutant population with the ecosystem as a...

  3. Effects of the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix/macropore interface on cumulative infiltrations into dual-permeability media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassabatere, L.; Peyrard, X.; Angulo-Jaramillo, R.; Simunek, J.

    2009-12-01

    Modeling of water infiltration into the vadose zone is important for better understanding of movement of water-transported contaminants. There is a great need to take into account the soil heterogeneity and, in particular, the presence of macropores or cracks that could generate preferential flow. Several mathematical models have been proposed to describe unsaturated flow through heterogeneous soils. The dual-permeability model (referred to as the 2K model) assumes that flow is governed by Richards equation in both porous regions (matrix and macropores). Water can be exchanged between the two regions following a first-order rate law. Although several studies have dealt with such modeling, no study has evaluated the influence of the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix/macropore interface on water cumulative infiltration. And this is the focus of this study. An analytical scaling method reveals the role of the following main parameters for given boundary and initial conditions: the saturated hydraulic conductivity ratio (R_Ks), the water pressure scale parameter ratio (R_hg), the saturated volumetric water content ratio (R_θs), and the shape parameters of the water retention and hydraulic conductivity functions. The last essential parameter is related to the interfacial hydraulic conductivity (Ka) between the macropore and matrix regions. The scaled 2K flow equations were solved using HYDRUS-1D 4.09 for the specific case of water infiltrating into an initially uniform soil profile and a zero pressure head at the soil surface. A sensitivity of water infiltration was studied for different sets of scale parameters (R_Ks, R_hg, R_θs, and shape parameters) and the scaled interfacial conductivity (Ka). Numerical results illustrate two extreme behaviors. When the interfacial conductivity is zero (i.e., no water exchange), water infiltrates separately into matrix and macropore regions, producing a much deeper moisture front in the macropore domain. In the opposite case

  4. Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flow Model To Evaluate Regional Water Security: A Case Study In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Li, S.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater service, as the most important support ecosystem service, is essential to human survival and development. Many studies have evidenced the spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services and raised the concept of ecosystem service flow. However, rather few studies quantitatively characterize the freshwater service flow. This paper aims to quantify the effect of freshwater ecosystem service flow on downstream areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China over 2000, 2005 and 2010. We computed the freshwater ecosystem service provision with InVEST model. We calculated freshwater ecosystem service consumption with water quota method. We simulated the freshwater ecosystem service flow using our simplified flow model and assessed the regional water security with the improved freshwater security index. The freshwater provision service mainly depends on climatic factors that cannot be influenced by management, while the freshwater consumption service is constrained by human activities. Furthermore, the decrease of water quota for agricultural, domestic and industrial water counteracts the impact of increasing freshwater demand. The analysis of freshwater ecosystem service flow reveals that the majority area of the BTH (69.2%) is affected by upstream freshwater. If freshwater ecosystem service flow is considered, the water safety areas of the whole BTH account for 66.9%, 66.1%, 71.3%, which increase 6.4%, 6.8% and 5.7% in 2000, 2005 and 2010, respectively. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant freshwater ecosystem service provision and local freshwater ecosystem service use. This approach therefore helps managers choose specific management and investment strategies for critical upstream freshwater provisions across different regions.

  5. [Urban ecosystem services: A review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Qi-zheng; Huang, Gan-lin; Wu, Jian-guo

    2015-04-01

    Maintaining and improving ecosystem services in urban areas and human well-being are essential for sustainable development and therefore constitute an important topic in urban ecology. Here we reviewed studies on ecosystem services in urban areas. Based on the concept and classification of urban ecosystem services, we summarized characteristics of urban ecosystem services, including the human domination, high demand of ecosystem services in urban areas, spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services supply and demand in urban areas, multi-services of urban green infrastructures, the socio-economic dimension of ecosystem services supply and ecosystem disservices in urban areas. Among different urban ecosystem services, the regulating service and cultural service are particularly indispensable to benefit human health. We pointed out that tradeoffs among different types of ecosystem services mostly occur between supportive service and cultural service, as well as regulating service and cultural service. In particular, we emphasized the relationship between landscape design (i.e. green infrastructure) and ecosystem services supply. Finally, we discussed current gaps to link urban ecosystem services studies to landscape design and management and pointed out several directions for future research in urban ecosystem services.

  6. Temporal scales, ecosystem dynamics, stakeholders and the valuation of ecosystems services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, Lars; Koppen, van C.S.A.K.; Ierland, van Ekko C.; Leidekker, Jakob

    2016-01-01

    Temporal dimensions are highly relevant to the analysis of ecosystem services and their economic value. In this paper, we provide a framework that can be used for analyzing temporal dimensions of ecosystem services, we present a case study including an analysis of the supply of three ecosystem

  7. Using Ant Communities For Rapid Assessment Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wike, L

    2005-06-01

    Measurement of ecosystem health is a very important but often difficult and sometimes fractious topic for applied ecologists. It is important because it can provide information about effects of various external influences like chemical, nuclear, and physical disturbance, and invasive species. Ecosystem health is also a measure of the rate or trajectory of degradation or recovery of systems that are currently suffering impact or those where restoration or remediation have taken place. Further, ecosystem health is the single best indicator of the quality of long term environmental stewardship because it not only provides a baseline condition, but also the means for future comparison and evaluation. Ecosystem health is difficult to measure because there are a nearly infinite number of variables and uncertainty as to which suites of variables are truly indicative of ecosystem condition. It would be impossible and prohibitively expensive to measure all those variables, or even all the ones that were certain to be valid indicators. Measurement of ecosystem health can also be a fractious topic for applied ecologists because there are a myriad of opinions as to which variables are the most important, most easily measured, most robust, and so forth. What is required is an integrative means of evaluating ecosystem health. All ecosystems are dynamic and undergo change either stochastically, intrinsically, or in response to external influences. The basic assumption about change induced by exogenous antropogenic influences is that it is directional and measurable. Historically measurements of surrogate parameters have been used in an attempt to quantify these changes, for example extensive water chemistry data in aquatic systems. This was the case until the 1980's when the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) (Karr et al. 1986), was developed. This system collects an array of metrics and fish community data within a stream ecosystem and develops a score or rating for the

  8. Identifying priority areas for ecosystem service management in South African grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egoh, Benis N; Reyers, Belinda; Rouget, Mathieu; Richardson, David M

    2011-06-01

    Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All

  9. [Ecological regulation services of Hainan Island ecosystem and their valuation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Zhiyun; Zhao, Tongqian; Zhao, Jingzhu; Xiao, Han; Wang, Xiaoke

    2004-08-01

    Ecosystem services imply the natural environmental conditions on which human life relies for existence, and their effectiveness formed and sustained by ecosystem and its ecological processes. In newly research reports, they were divided into four groups, i. e., provisioning services, regulation services, cultural services, and supporting services. To assess and valuate ecosystem services is the foundation of regional environmental reserve and development. Taking Hainan Island as an example and based on the structure and processes of natural ecosystem, this paper discussed the proper methods for regulation services assessment. The ecosystems were classified into 13 types including valley rain forest, mountainous rain forest, tropical monsoon forest, mountainous coppice forest, mountainous evergreen forest, tropical coniferous forest, shrubs, plantation, timber forest, windbreak forest, mangrove, savanna, and cropland, and then, the regulation services and their economic values of Hainan Island ecosystem were assessed and evaluated by terms of water-holding, soil conservancy, nutrient cycle, C fixation, and windbreak function. The economic value of the regulation services of Hainan Island ecosystem was estimated as 2035.88 x 10(8)-2153.39 x 10(8) RMB yuan, 8 times higher to its provisioning services (wood and agricultural products) which were estimated as only 254.06 x 10(8) RMB yuan. The result implied that ecosystem regulation services played an even more important role in the sustainable development of society and economy in Hainan Island.

  10. Cumulative Beam Breakup with Time-Dependent Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Delayen, J R

    2004-01-01

    A general analytical formalism developed recently for cumulative beam breakup (BBU) in linear accelerators with arbitrary beam current profile and misalignments [1] is extended to include time-dependent parameters such as energy chirp or rf focusing in order to reduce BBU-induced instabilities and emittance growth. Analytical results are presented and applied to practical accelerator configurations.

  11. Error Analysis on the Estimation of Cumulative Infiltration in Soil Using Green and AMPT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamad Askari

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Green and Ampt infiltration model is still useful for the infiltration process because of a clear physical basis of the model and of the existence of the model parameter values for a wide range of soil. The objective of thise study was to analyze error on the esimation of cumulative infiltration in sooil using Green and Ampt model and to design laboratory experiment in measuring cumulative infiltration. Parameter of the model was determined based on soil physical properties from laboratory experiment. Newton –Raphson method was esed to estimate wetting front during calculation using visual Basic for Application (VBA in MS Word. The result showed that  contributed the highest error in estimation of cumulative infiltration and was followed by K, H0, H1, and t respectively. It also showed that the calculated cumulative infiltration is always lower than both measured cumulative infiltration and volumetric soil water content.

  12. The Implementation of Cumulative Learning Theory in Calculating Triangular Prism and Tube Volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muklis, M.; Abidin, C.; Pamungkas, M. D.; Masriyah

    2018-01-01

    This study aims at describing the application of cumulative learning theory in calculating the volume of a triangular prism and a tube as well as revealing the students’ responses toward the learning. The research method used was descriptive qualitative with elementary school students as the subjects of the research. Data obtained through observation, field notes, questionnaire, tests, and interviews. The results from the application of cumulative learning theory obtained positive students’ responses in following the learning and students’ learning outcomes was dominantly above the average. This showed that cumulative learning could be used as a reference to be implemented in learning, so as to improve the students’ achievement.

  13. Drought impacts on ecosystem functions of the U.S. National Forests and Grasslands: Part I evaluation of a water and carbon balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanlei Sun; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; Jingfeng Xiao; Yang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Understanding and quantitatively evaluating the regional impacts of climate change and variability (e.g., droughts) on forest ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield, evapotranspiration, and productivity) and services (e.g., fresh water supply and carbon sequestration) is of great importance for developing climate change adaptation strategies for National Forests and...

  14. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

    2017-08-01

    To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

  15. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

    2008-01-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  16. A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

  17. [Health assessment of river ecosystem in Haihe River Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Li-Xia; Sun, Ran-Hao; Chen, Li-Ding

    2014-10-01

    With the development of economy, the health of river ecosystem is severely threatened because of the increasing effects of human activities on river ecosystem. In this paper, the authors assessed the river ecosystem health in aspects of chemical integrity and biological integrity, using the criterion in water quality, nutrient, and benthic macroinvertebrates of 73 samples in Haihe River Basin. The research showed that the health condition of river ecosystem in Haihe River Basin was bad overall since the health situation of 72. 6% of the samples was "extremely bad". At the same time, the health situation in Haihe River Basin exhibited obvious regional gathering effect. We also found that the river water quality was closely related to human activities, and the eutrophication trend of water body was evident in Haihe River Basin. The biodiversity of the benthic animal was low and lack of clean species in the basin. The indicators such as ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were the key factors that affected the river ecosystem health in Haihe River Basin, so the government should start to curb the deterioration of river ecosystem health by controlling these nutrients indicators. For river ecosystem health assessment, the multi-factors comprehensive evaluation method was superior to single-factor method.

  18. Future stratospheric ozone depletion will affect a subarctic dwarf shrub ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johanson, Ulf

    1997-02-01

    The stratospheric ozone depletion and the concomitant increase in ultraviolet-B (UV-B, 280-320 nm) radiation is of global concern due to the effects of UV-B on living organisms. To investigate the effects of increased levels of UV-B, a field irradiation system was established at a subarctic dwarf shrub heath in Northern Sweden (68 deg N). An ozone depletion of 15% under clear sky conditions was simulated over a naturally growing ecosystem. The response of both individual components and processes was studied to reveal changes in ecosystem structure and function. Species with different life strategies (evergreen or deciduous) responded differently both in magnitude and direction. The evergreen species were more responsive to UV-B regarding shoot growth, which could be due to cumulative effects in long-lived tissues, since the retardation in relative growth increased over time of exposure. Leaves of evergreen species became thicker under enhanced UV-B, while leaves of deciduous species became thinner. Decomposition studies (laboratory and in situ) showed that indirect effects of UV-B, due to changes in leaf tissue chemistry affected microbial activity and slowed down the decomposition rate. More directly, UV-B decreased the abundance of some fungal species and hence the composition of species. However, no altered decomposition rate was found when decomposition progressed under high UV-B even if the microorganisms were fewer. This could be due to the increased direct photo degradation of litter that compensates for lower microbial activity. The decomposition rate is therefore strongly dependent on the interception of UV-B at the litter layer. This research has shown that ecosystem components and processes are affected in a number of ways and that there are indications of changes in species composition in a long-term perspective due to differences in responsiveness between the different species. 128 refs, 7 figs

  19. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  20. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)