Sample records for evacuation modeling system

  1. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.


    Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a

  2. Surgical smoke evacuation systems. (United States)


    Surgical smoke evacuation systems are high-flow vacuum sources used to capture, at the surgical site, the smoke aerosols and gases generated during the use of lasers and electrosurgical units (ESUs). In this study, we evaluated 16 evacuation systems, from 10 suppliers, designed and marketed for use in the operating room for general surgery. For our testing, we focused on the performance of the systems (particularly their ability to capture smoke particles under simulated surgical conditions) and their ease of use and quality of construction. We also examined the projected costs of each system over a seven-year life cycle. We rated the systems separately for two different evacuation applications (1) general-purpose applications, for which the system would, in many cases, be used with a handheld nozzle (the traditional capture device used with these systems), and (2) ESU-pencil-based evacuation applications only, for which the system would always be used with a pencil-based wand. (We report on ESU-pencil-based smoke evacuation wands in a separate Evaluation in this issue.) While we found most units to be Acceptable, we did rate two units Acceptable-Not Recommended for both applications and one unit Unacceptable for general-purpose applications. In addition to our findings for the evaluated models, this study features several sections providing generic information and guidance about smoke evacuation technology. The Technology Overview describes the basics: what these systems do and how they do it. The Technology Management Guide, "Clearing the Air-Should Surgical Smoke Be Evacuated?," discusses the issues healthcare facilities should consider when determining whether, when, and how surgical smoke should be evacuated. Finally, the Selection, Purchasing, and Use Guide offers guidance on how facilities can most effectively implement this technology, from identifying models that will meet their needs to ensuring that the systems are used properly to provide adequate staff

  3. Emergency evacuation models in subway service systems: An application on Izmir (Turkey subway system

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    Gökçe Baysal Türkölmez


    Full Text Available Increasing population in crowded cities causes transportation problems. Public transportation is an effective solution for the crowded traffic. Subway is a fast and productive alternative for public transportation so it is a highly preferable choice in others. It is hard to evacuate people in subway station during a disaster in carriages, on subway line or in subway stations because subway systems are often located underground, a lot people use it at the same time and enter-exit gates are controlled by turnstiles. It is crucially important to know the evacuation time of people from subway. In this paper, Konak station, one of the most crowded stations of Izmir Subway System is analyzed by emergency evacuation models. The evacuation process is simulated by Simulex software. The emergency evacuation problem is modeled in three different scenarios. Solution offers are developed for them.

  4. Simulation of traffic flow during emergency evacuations: A microcomputer based modeling system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rathi, A.K.; Solanki, R.S.


    Evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in times of threat to the general public. One of the key factors used in evaluating the effectiveness of evacuation as a protective action option is the estimate of time required for evacuation. The time required for evacuation is the time associated with clearing an area at risk to areas far enough away to be considered safe. Computer simulation models of traffic flow are used to estimate the time it takes to evacuate or ``clear`` an at-risk region by means of vehicular evacuation. This paper provides a brief description of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS), a prototype under development at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. OREMS consists of a set of computer programs and models which can be used to simulate traffic flow during regional population evacuations and to develop evacuation plans for different events and scenarios (e.g. good vs. bad weather and nighttime vs. daytime evacuations) for user-defined spatial boundaries.

  5. Central Dental Evacuation Systems. (United States)


    20 High-Vacuum Oral Evacuation System (HIVAC) for Oral Surgery, Periodontics, and Endodontics Treatment Rooms..................... steel rails. Rubber isolator pads between this frame and the structure floor absorb vibration and prevent its magnification . The inlet...System (HIVAC) for Oral Surgery, Periodontics, and Endodontics Treatment Rooms The HIVAC system is designed to build and sustain high vacuum pressures

  6. Evacuation modeling trends

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, Orlando; Alvear, Daniel


    This book presents an overview of modeling definitions and concepts, theory on human behavior and human performance data, available tools and simulation approaches, model development, and application and validation methods. It considers the data and research efforts needed to develop and incorporate functions for the different parameters into comprehensive escape and evacuation simulations, with a number of examples illustrating different aspects and approaches. After an overview of basic modeling approaches, the book discusses benefits and challenges of current techniques. The representation of evacuees is a central issue, including human behavior and the proper implementation of representational tools. Key topics include the nature and importance of the different parameters involved in ASET and RSET and the interactions between them. A review of the current literature on verification and validation methods is provided, with a set of recommended verification tests and examples of validation tests. The book c...

  7. An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior (United States)


    A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

  8. Evacuation Dynamics: Empirical Results, Modeling and Applications


    Schadschneider, Andreas; Klingsch, Wolfram; Kluepfel, Hubert; Kretz, Tobias; Rogsch, Christian; Seyfried, Armin


    This extensive review was written for the ``Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science'' (Springer, 2008) and addresses a broad audience ranging from engineers to applied mathematicians, computer scientists and physicists. It provides an extensive overview of various aspects of pedestrian dynamics, focussing on evacuation processes. First the current status of empirical results is critically reviewed as it forms the basis for the calibration of models needed for quantitative predictions. T...

  9. Modelling Traveller Behaviour under Emergency Evacuation Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pel, A.J.; Bliemer, M.C.J.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This paper focuses on limitations in the modelling of travellers’ behaviour with respect to traffic information and compliance to evacuation instructions. More specifically, we propose a model

  10. The effects of group and position vacancy on pedestrian evacuation flow model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Jun [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); You, Lei [College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Wei, Juan, E-mail: [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Gu, Musong [College of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China); Liang, Ying [Chengdu Aeronautic Vocational and Technical College, Chengdu 610100 (China)


    In order to reduce the simulation error of pedestrian evacuation model, a novel three-dimensional cellular automata model was proposed with ladder factor. The calculation formula for transition probability was given in the model based on floor field, position vacancy degree and group attraction, and the evacuation strategy was presented. Meanwhile, the experiment studied the relationships of evacuation time, mean system velocity as well as pedestrian density. The result showed that the evacuation time could be reduced effectively when the mean system velocity and position vacancy had proper degree, and the bigger group had negative effect with the evacuation time, so the bigger group should be avoided in actual evacuation process.

  11. 3D Building Evacuation Route Modelling and Visualization (United States)

    Chan, W.; Armenakis, C.


    The most common building evacuation approach currently applied is to have evacuation routes planned prior to these emergency events. These routes are usually the shortest and most practical path from each building room to the closest exit. The problem with this approach is that it is not adaptive. It is not responsively configurable relative to the type, intensity, or location of the emergency risk. Moreover, it does not provide any information to the affected persons or to the emergency responders while not allowing for the review of simulated hazard scenarios and alternative evacuation routes. In this paper we address two main tasks. The first is the modelling of the spatial risk caused by a hazardous event leading to choosing the optimal evacuation route for a set of options. The second is to generate a 3D visual representation of the model output. A multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach is used to model the risk aiming at finding the optimal evacuation route. This is achieved by using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) on the criteria describing the different alternative evacuation routes. The best route is then chosen to be the alternative with the least cost. The 3D visual representation of the model displays the building, the surrounding environment, the evacuee's location, the hazard location, the risk areas and the optimal evacuation pathway to the target safety location. The work has been performed using ESRI's ArcGIS. Using the developed models, the user can input the location of the hazard and the location of the evacuee. The system then determines the optimum evacuation route and displays it in 3D.

  12. Use of an agent-based simulation model to evaluate a mobile-based system for supporting emergency evacuation decision making. (United States)

    Tian, Yu; Zhou, Tian-Shu; Yao, Qin; Zhang, Mao; Li, Jing-Song


    Recently, mass casualty incidents (MCIs) have been occurring frequently and have gained international attention. There is an urgent need for scientifically proven and effective emergency responses to MCIs, particularly as the severity of incidents is continuously increasing. The emergency response to MCIs is a multi-dimensional and multi-participant dynamic process that changes in real-time. The evacuation decisions that assign casualties to different hospitals in a region are very important and impact both the results of emergency treatment and the efficiency of medical resource utilization. Previously, decisions related to casualty evacuation were made by an incident commander with emergency experience and in accordance with macro emergency guidelines. There are few decision-supporting tools available to reduce the difficulty and psychological pressure associated with the evacuation decisions an incident commander must make. In this study, we have designed a mobile-based system to collect medical and temporal data produced during an emergency response to an MCI. Using this information, our system's decision-making model can provide personal evacuation suggestions that improve the overall outcome of an emergency response. The effectiveness of our system in reducing overall mortality has been validated by an agent-based simulation model established to simulate an emergency response to an MCI.

  13. Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model (United States)

    Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De


    Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

  14. Design and modelling of novel evacuated receiver tube of concentration solar power system by using heliostat stadium arrangement

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    Kadhim Khlief Ayad


    Full Text Available A novel concentration solar evacuated receiver tube collector is proposed in this study. Details of design and simulation of the heliostat field are presented. The proposed system uses a heliostat stadium arrangement to focus sunlight towards a receiver (evacuated receiver tube. Heliostat field which looks like stadium arrangement is proposed an alternative system of the tower in the power tower plants to cancel the shading / blocking losses. In this study, simulation results showed that the energy input increases with increased solar irradiation; the increase ranges from 288 to 470W/m.The maximum amount of energy inputs that can be obtained in the receiver for the collector is around 470W/m for the maximum solar density of 688W.m2. In the solar is 402 W/m2, and the useful energy of collectors is about 288 W/m and the thermal efficiency of the receiver was around 23%.

  15. Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Naser, Arab


    Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning. This book also: Comprehensively discusses the application of mathematical models for evacuation and intelligent transportation modeling Covers advanced methodologies in evacuation modeling and planning Discusses principles a...

  16. A New Models for Emergency Evacuation under the Disaster Condition (United States)

    Tang, L.; Yang, X.; Huang, F.; Xu, H.; Li, Q.


    People must face many disasters every day, which cause losses in property and human lives. It is significant how to establish the emergency evacuation model and for high density population in large areas according to the actual situation of their emergency evacuation. This paper put forward a Multi-levels Emergency Evacuation Model (MEE) based on the collective evacuation for high density of population in large areas under the earthquake condition in China, which firstly find the best ways from the multi-gathering points(Origins) in the disaster area to multi-settling points(Destinations )in the safe area based on the road impedance such as the traffic, road speed limit and pavement damage to weight the evacuation ability of road network, and secondly determine the evacuation auto numbers on the every routes which is at the target to deliver all the evacuating people from the Origins to Destinations in the shortest time. The experiment area is Dezhou city in Shandong province of China, and an emergency evacuation platform was put up according to the multilevel emergency evacuation model using Google map API and C# as development platform, and the result show us that MEE is promised to be a new methods for emergency evacuation.

  17. Experiment and modeling of paired effect on evacuation from a three-dimensional space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jun, Hu [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Huijun, Sun, E-mail: [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Juan, Wei [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Xiaodan, Chen [College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Lei, You [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Musong, Gu [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China)


    A novel three-dimensional cellular automata evacuation model was proposed based on stairs factor for paired effect and variety velocities in pedestrian evacuation. In the model pedestrians' moving probability of target position at the next moment was defined based on distance profit and repulsive force profit, and evacuation strategy was elaborated in detail through analyzing variety velocities and repulsive phenomenon in moving process. At last, experiments with the simulation platform were conducted to study the relationships of evacuation time, average velocity and pedestrian velocity. The results showed that when the ratio of single pedestrian was higher in the system, the shortest route strategy was good for improving evacuation efficiency; in turn, if ratio of paired pedestrians was higher, it is good for improving evacuation efficiency to adopt strategy that avoided conflicts, and priority should be given to scattered evacuation. - Highlights: • A novel three-dimensional evacuation model was presented with stair factor. • The paired effect and variety velocities were considered in evacuation model. • The cellular automata model is improved by repulsive force.


    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon


    . Based on thesemodels, the thermal performance of large solar domestic hot water (DHW) systems and combined domestichot water and space heating systems with the four evacuated tubular collectors was determined. To make acomparison with traditional flat-plate collectors, similar simulations were also......In the present study, detailed investigations on evacuated tubular solar collectors for large solarheating systems have been carried out. Four types of evacuated tubular solar collectors were used in theinvestigation. Based on laboratory tests, simulation models for the collectors were determined...... carried out for systems with atypical flat-plate collector. The results show that the thermal advantage of evacuated tubular collectors variesgreatly from system to system, and increases with the solar fraction. Furthermore, the higher the operationtemperature of the collector in the system is...

  19. Assessment of total evacuation systems for tall buildings

    CERN Document Server

    Ronchi, Enrico


    This SpringerBrief focuses on the use of egress models to assess the optimal strategy for total evacuation in high-rise buildings. It investigates occupant relocation and evacuation strategies involving the exit stairs, elevators, sky bridges and combinations thereof. Chapters review existing information on this topic and describe case study simulations of a multi-component exit strategy. This review provides the architectural design, regulatory and research communities with a thorough understanding of the current and emerging evacuation procedures and possible future options. A model case study simulates seven possible strategies for the total evacuation of two identical twin towers linked with two sky-bridges at different heights. The authors present the layout of the building and the available egress components including both vertical and horizontal egress components, namely stairs, occupant evacuation elevators (OEEs), service elevators, transfer floors and sky-bridges. The evacuation strategies employ a ...

  20. Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.


    The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

  1. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  2. Modeling pedestrian evacuation by means of game theory (United States)

    Shi, Dongmei; Zhang, Wenyao; Wang, Binghong


    Pedestrian evacuation is studied based on a modified lattice model. The payoff matrix in this model represents the complicated interactions between selfish individuals, and the mean force imposed on an individual is given by considering the impacts of neighbors, walls, and defector herding. Each passer-by moves to his selected location according to the Fermi function, and the average velocity of pedestrian flow is defined as a function of the motion rule. Two pedestrian types are included: cooperators, who adhere to the evacuation instructions; and defectors, who ignore the rules and act individually. It is observed that the escape time increases as fear degree increases, and the system remains smooth for a low fear degree, but exhibits three stages for a high fear degree. We prove that the fear degree determines the dynamics of this system, and the initial density of cooperators has a negligible impact. The system experiences three phases, a single phase of cooperator, a mixed two-phase pedestrian, and a single phase of defector sequentially as the fear degree upgrades. The phase transition has been proven basically robust to the changes of empty site contribution, wall’s pressure, and noise amplitude in the motion rule. It is further shown that pedestrians derive the greatest benefit from overall cooperation, but are trapped in the worst situation if they are all defectors. Dynamics of pedestrian evacuation.

  3. Study on queueing behavior in pedestrian evacuation by extended cellular automata model (United States)

    Hu, Jun; You, Lei; Zhang, Hong; Wei, Juan; Guo, Yangyong


    This paper proposes a pedestrian evacuation model for effective simulation of evacuation efficiency based on extended cellular automata. In the model, pedestrians' momentary transition probability to a target position is defined in terms of the floor field and queueing time, and the critical time is defined as the waiting time threshold in a queue. Queueing time and critical time are derived using Fractal Brownian Motion through analysis of pedestrian arrival characteristics. Simulations using the platform and actual evacuations were conducted to study the relationships among system evacuation time, average system velocity, pedestrian density, flow rate, and critical time. The results demonstrate that at low pedestrian density, evacuation efficiency can be improved through adoption of the shortest route strategy, and critical time has an inverse relationship with average system velocity. Conversely, at higher pedestrian densities, it is better to adopt the shortest queueing time strategy, and critical time is inversely related to flow rate.

  4. Evacuation of Pedestrians with Two Motion Modes for Panic System. (United States)

    Zou, You; Xie, Jiarong; Wang, Binghong


    In this paper, we have captured an underlying mechanism of emergence of collective panic in pedestrian evacuations by using a modification of the lattice-gas model. We classify the motion of pedestrians into two modes according to their moods. One is gentle (mode I), the other is flustered (mode II). First, to research the cause for crowd, we fix the motion modes of pedestrians and increase the proportion of pedestrians with motion mode II (ρII). The simulation results show that the pedestrians with motion mode II are lack of evacuation efficiency and cause more casualties. Further, we use the SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) model to describe the spreading of the panic mood. The system can be in the high-mix state when the infection probability λ is greater than a fuzzy threshold. In addition, the distances S from wounded people to the exit are researched, the number of wounded people gets maximum at the internal S = 5∼10, which is independent of ρII and λ. This research can help us to understand and prevent the emergence of collective panic and reduce wounds in the real evacuation.

  5. Evacuation of Pedestrians with Two Motion Modes for Panic System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You Zou

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have captured an underlying mechanism of emergence of collective panic in pedestrian evacuations by using a modification of the lattice-gas model. We classify the motion of pedestrians into two modes according to their moods. One is gentle (mode I, the other is flustered (mode II. First, to research the cause for crowd, we fix the motion modes of pedestrians and increase the proportion of pedestrians with motion mode II (ρII. The simulation results show that the pedestrians with motion mode II are lack of evacuation efficiency and cause more casualties. Further, we use the SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible model to describe the spreading of the panic mood. The system can be in the high-mix state when the infection probability λ is greater than a fuzzy threshold. In addition, the distances S from wounded people to the exit are researched, the number of wounded people gets maximum at the internal S = 5∼10, which is independent of ρII and λ. This research can help us to understand and prevent the emergence of collective panic and reduce wounds in the real evacuation.

  6. A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Thomas, Neil [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)


    Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

  7. A social force evacuation model with the leadership effect (United States)

    Hou, Lei; Liu, Jian-Guo; Pan, Xue; Wang, Bing-Hong


    When planning for the evacuation guidance, how to efficiently set the trained evacuation leaders is an important problem which has great impact on the evacuation process. This paper investigates the effect of the number and positions of evacuation leaders on the evacuation dynamics in rooms with limited visibility range. In the improved social force model, only the trained leaders exactly know the exit positions, and the others could only follow the guidance according to the positions and directions of evacuation leaders. According to the simulation results, only one or two leaders could get remarkable effect for a single-exit configuration. But for configurations with multi-exits, evacuation leaders would make the dynamic slower unless the guidance sufficiently utilizes every exit. The results indicate that, we should set as many leaders as the number of exits in the center of the multi-exits regular squared room, and when emergencies occur, each leader heads to a different exit. Moreover, if we do like this, the evacuation would be even faster than that with 20 random-position-leaders. This work may shed some light on the drawing up of emergency scheme for large public-gathering places like stadiums and shopping malls.

  8. Research on Evacuation Based on Social Force Model (United States)

    Liu, W.; Deng, Z.; Li, W.; Lin, J.


    Crowded centers always cause personnel casualties in evacuation operations. Stampede events often occur by hit, squeeze and crush due to panic. It is of vital important to alleviate such situation. With the deepening of personnel evacuation research, more and more researchers are committed to study individual behaviors and self-organization phenomenon in evacuation process. The study mainly includes: 1, enrich the social force model from different facets such as visual, psychological, external force to descript more realistic evacuation; 2, research on causes and effects of self - organization phenomenon. In this paper, we focus on disorder motion that occurs in the crowded indoor publics, especially the narrow channel and safety exits and other special arteries. We put forward the improved social force model to depict pedestrians' behaviors, an orderly speed-stratification evacuation method to solve disorder problem, and shape-changed export to alleviate congestion. The result of this work shows an improvement of evacuation efficiency by 19.5 %. Guiding pedestrians' direction to slow down the influence of social forces has a guidance function in improving the efficiency of indoor emergency evacuation.

  9. Application of Agent-Based Model Simulation for Tsunami Evacuation in Pacitan, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usman Fadly


    Full Text Available The most significant measure in reducing tsunami disaster is an early evacuation. The aim of this study is to developments a dynamic evacuation model with using simulation of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS. The Shelter Plan Analysis is also conducted in this study to establish applicable evacuation places. All analysis in this study based on a geographic information system (GIS data such as shelter location, evacuation networks, housing and other information. The shelter plan analysis is the methods to evaluate an applicable shelter. The important variable in this analysis is nearest accessibility based on the existing road from the residential area to the evacuation building. In order to set input data for this analysis, we conducted a questionnaire survey to the local people in Pacitan, which is a typical populated coastal city in Indonesia, located in East Java province. The agent-based model is according to multi criteria decision making (MCDM for internal and external factor. The concept of MCDM was used to develop a weighted suitability decision matrix in a simulation's model. We also conducted the field survey in this city, especially focused on the condition of evacuation shelters and evacuation networks, in order to evaluate the shelter plan on GIS as well as to conduct the simulation of the agent-based model.

  10. A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pel, A.J.; Bliemer, M.C.J.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The

  11. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy (United States)

    Woo, G.


    The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

  12. Solar Heating Systems with Evacuated Tubular Solar Collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon


    Recently different designed evacuated tubular solar collectors were introduced on the market by different Chinese companies. In the present study, investigations on the performance of four different Chinese evacuated tubular collectors and of solar heating systems using these collectors were...... carried out, employing both laboratory test and theoretical calculations. The collectors were tested in a small solar domestic hot water (SDHW) system in a laboratory test facility under realistic conditions. The yearly thermal performance of solar heating systems with these evacuated tubular collectors......-plate collectors. For solar heating plants, the yearly energy output from these evacuated tubular collectors is about 40%-90% higher than the output from typical flat-plate collectors at an operation temperature of about 50°C....

  13. Modelling gastric evacuation in gadoids feeding on crustaceans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner; Chabot, Denis; Couturier, C. S.


    A mechanistic, prey surface-dependent model was expanded to describe the course and rate of gastric evacuation in predatory fishes feeding on crustacean prey with robust exoskeletons. This was accomplished by adding a layer of higher resistance to the digestive processes outside the inner softer...... parts of a prey cylinder abstraction and splitting up the prey evacuation into two stages: an initial stage where the exoskeleton is cracked and a second where the prey remains are digested and evacuated. The model was parameterized for crustaceans with different levels of armour fed to Atlantic cod...... and Chionoecetes opilio. In accordance with the apparent intraspecific isometric relationship between exoskeleton mass and total body mass, the model described stage duration and rate of evacuation of the crustacean prey independently of meal and prey sizes. The duration of the first stage increased (0-33 h...

  14. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Georgiadou, Paraskevi S. [Hellenic Institute for Occupational Health and Safety, Liossion 143 and Theirsiou 6, Athens 104 45 (Greece)]. E-mail:; Papazoglou, Ioannis A. [Systems Reliability and Industrial Safety Laboratory, National Center of Scientific Research ' Demokritos' , Agia Paraskevi, Athens 153 10 (Greece)]. E-mail:; Kiranoudis, Chris T. [School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus, Athens 157 80 (Greece)]. E-mail:; Markatos, Nikolaos C. [School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus, Athens 157 80 (Greece)]. E-mail:


    A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies.

  15. Evacuation time estimate for a total pedestrian evacuation using queuing network model and volunteered geographic information

    CERN Document Server

    Kunwar, Bharat; Johansson, Anders


    Estimating city evacuation time is a non-trivial problem due to the interaction between thousands of individual agents, giving rise to various collective phenomena, such as bottleneck formation, intermittent flow and stop-and-go waves. We present a mean field approach to draw relationships between road network spatial attributes, number of evacuees and resultant evacuation time estimate (ETE). We divide $50$ medium sized UK cities into a total of $697$ catchment areas which we define as an area where all agents share the same nearest exit node. In these catchment areas, 90% of agents are within $5.4$ km of their designated exit node. We establish a characteristic flow rate from catchment area attributes (population, distance to exit node and exit node width) and a mean flow rate in free-flow regime by simulating total evacuations using an agent based `queuing network' model. We use these variables to determine a relationship between catchment area attributes and resultant ETE. This relationship could enable e...

  16. Modeling Evacuation of Emergency Vehicles by Cellular Automata Models (United States)

    Moussa, Najem

    An evacuation of the emergency vehicle (EV) from an origin point (e.g., accident location) to a destination point (e.g., hospital) in lower and higher congestions is simulated using city cellular automata models. We find that the mean speed of the EV and its arrival time all depend enormously on the cars density, the route length of the EV and the turn capability of the cars. Dangerous situations that occurred during the evacuation of the EV are also investigated. By allowing high turning capabilities to cars, considerable improvements are obtained. Indeed, the EV mean speed is enhanced and its arrival time is optimized. Moreover, at relatively high density, a significant reduction of the risk of accident is expected.

  17. Modeling and simulating for congestion pedestrian evacuation with panic (United States)

    Wang, Jinhuan; Zhang, Lei; Shi, Qiongyu; Yang, Peng; Hu, Xiaoming


    A new multi-agent based congestion evacuation model incorporating panic behavior is proposed in this paper for simulating pedestrian evacuation in public places such as a stadium. Different from the existing results, pedestrians in this model are divided into four classes and each pedestrian's status can be either normal, being overtaken, or casualty. The direction of action for each individual is affected by competitive ability, distance to the exits as well as number and density of occupants within the view field of the agent. Our simulations exhibit that during the evacuation process: (1) The agents gather in front of the exits spontaneously and present arched shapes close to the exits. (2) Under the panic state the agents cohere closely and almost do not change the target exit. So other alternative exits are ignored. (3) For the case without obstacle, the casualties under panic increase greatly. But if there are obstacles (chairs), the congestion can be alleviated. Thus the casualties are reduced. (4) If certain exit is partly clogged, the evacuation becomes more efficient when adding a virtual leader. The overall simulation results show that the proposed model can reproduce the real evacuation process in a stadium quite well.

  18. Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Carlson, Jean M; Stromberg, Sean P; Bassett, Danielle S; Craparo, Emily M; Gutierrez-Villarreal, Francisco; Otani, Thomas


    Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In each scenario, individuals are faced with a forced "go" versus "no go" evacuation decision, based on information available on competing broadcast and peer-to-peer sources. In this controlled setting, all actions and observations are recorded prior to the decision, enabling development of a quantitative decision making model that accounts for the disaster likelihood, severity, and temporal urgency, as well as competition between networked individuals for limited emergency resources. Individual differences in behavior within this social setting are correlated with individual differences in inh...

  19. Modelling gastric evacuation in gadoids feeding on crustaceans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner; Chabot, Denis; Couturier, C. S.


    and Chionoecetes opilio. In accordance with the apparent intraspecific isometric relationship between exoskeleton mass and total body mass, the model described stage duration and rate of evacuation of the crustacean prey independently of meal and prey sizes. The duration of the first stage increased (0-33 h......) and the evacuation rate of both stages decreased (by a half) with increasing level of the crustacean armament in terms of chitin and ash. A common, interspecific parameterization of the model within each of the categories krill, shrimp and crab can probably be used if the contents of chitin and ash are similar among...

  20. A Simple Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Tool for First Responders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Daniel B [ORNL; Payne, Patricia W [ORNL


    Although modeling and simulation of mass evacuations during a natural or man-made disaster is an on-going and vigorous area of study, tool adoption by front-line first responders is uneven. Some of the factors that account for this situation include cost and complexity of the software. For several years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been actively developing the free Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit (IMPACT) to address these issues. One of the components of IMPACT is a multi-agent simulation module for area-based and path-based evacuations. The user interface is designed so that anyone familiar with typical computer drawing tools can quickly author a geospatially-correct evacuation visualization suitable for table-top exercises. Since IMPACT is designed for use in the field where network communications may not be available, quick on-site evacuation alternatives can be evaluated to keep pace with a fluid threat situation. Realism is enhanced by incorporating collision avoidance into the simulation. Statistics are gathered as the simulation unfolds, including most importantly time-to-evacuate, to help first responders choose the best course of action.

  1. Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China (United States)

    Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan


    Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

  2. Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.


    Regional evacuation modeling is treated as a five step process: involving vehicle trip generation, trip departure time, trip destination, and trip route selection modeling, supplemented by plan set-up and analysis procedures. Progress under each of these headings is reviewed and gaps in the process identified. The potential for emergency planners to make use of real time traffic data, resulting from the recent technical and economic revolutions in telecommunications and infrared traffic sensing, is identified as the single greatest opportunity for the near future; and some beginnings in the development of real time dynamic traffic modeling specifically geared to evacuation planning are highlighted. Significant data problems associated with the time of day location of large urban populations represent a second area requiring extensive research. A third area requiring much additional effort is the translation of the considerable knowledge we have on evacuee behavior in times of crisis into reliable quantitative measures of the timing of evacuee mobilization, notably by distance from the source of the hazard. Specific evacuation models are referenced and categorized by method. Incorporation of evacuation model findings into the definition of emergency planning zone boundaries is also discussed.

  3. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero


    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  4. Modelling social identification and helping in evacuation simulation

    CERN Document Server

    von Sivers, I; Künzner, F; Köster, G; Drury, J; Philippides, A; Neckel, T; Bungartz, H -J


    Social scientists have criticised computer models of pedestrian streams for their treatment of psychological crowds as mere aggregations of individuals. Indeed most models for evacuation dynamics use analogies from physics where pedestrians are considered as particles. Although this ensures that the results of the simulation match important physical phenomena, such as the deceleration of the crowd with increasing density, social phenomena such as group processes are ignored. In particular, people in a crowd have social identities and share those social identities with the others in the crowd. The process of self categorisation determines norms within the crowd and influences how people will behave in evacuation situations. We formulate the application of social identity in pedestrian simulation algorithmically. The goal is to examine whether it is possible to carry over the psychological model to computer models of pedestrian motion so that simulation results correspond to observations from crowd psychology. ...

  5. Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana


    Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

  6. Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A. Drews


    Full Text Available Improving community resiliency to wildfire is a challenging problem in the face of ongoing development in fire-prone regions. Evacuation and shelter-in-place are the primary options for reducing wildfire casualties, but it can be difficult to determine which option offers the most protection in urgent scenarios. Although guidelines and policies have been proposed to inform this decision, a formal approach to evaluating protective options would help advance protective-action theory. We present an optimization model based on the premise that protecting a community can be viewed as assigning threatened households to one of three actions: evacuation, shelter-in-refuge, or shelter-in-home. While evacuation generally offers the highest level of life protection, it can place residents at greater risk when little time is available. This leads to complex trade-offs involving expected fire intensity, available time, and the quality and accessibility of in-place shelter. An application of the model is presented to illustrate a range of issues that can arise across scenarios.

  7. Cellular automaton model of crowd evacuation inspired by slime mould (United States)

    Kalogeiton, V. S.; Papadopoulos, D. P.; Georgilas, I. P.; Sirakoulis, G. Ch.; Adamatzky, A. I.


    In all the living organisms, the self-preservation behaviour is almost universal. Even the most simple of living organisms, like slime mould, is typically under intense selective pressure to evolve a response to ensure their evolution and safety in the best possible way. On the other hand, evacuation of a place can be easily characterized as one of the most stressful situations for the individuals taking part on it. Taking inspiration from the slime mould behaviour, we are introducing a computational bio-inspired model crowd evacuation model. Cellular Automata (CA) were selected as a fully parallel advanced computation tool able to mimic the Physarum's behaviour. In particular, the proposed CA model takes into account while mimicking the Physarum foraging process, the food diffusion, the organism's growth, the creation of tubes for each organism, the selection of optimum tube for each human in correspondence to the crowd evacuation under study and finally, the movement of all humans at each time step towards near exit. To test the model's efficiency and robustness, several simulation scenarios were proposed both in virtual and real-life indoor environments (namely, the first floor of office building B of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering of Democritus University of Thrace). The proposed model is further evaluated in a purely quantitative way by comparing the simulation results with the corresponding ones from the bibliography taken by real data. The examined fundamental diagrams of velocity-density and flow-density are found in full agreement with many of the already published corresponding results proving the adequacy, the fitness and the resulting dynamics of the model. Finally, several real Physarum experiments were conducted in an archetype of the aforementioned real-life environment proving at last that the proposed model succeeded in reproducing sufficiently the Physarum's recorded behaviour derived from observation of the aforementioned

  8. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.


    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  9. Enhancing Evacuation Plans with a Situation Awareness System Based on End-User Knowledge Provision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Morales


    Full Text Available Recent disasters have shown that having clearly defined preventive procedures and decisions is a critical component that minimizes evacuation hazards and ensures a rapid and successful evolution of evacuation plans. In this context, we present our Situation-Aware System for enhancing Evacuation Plans (SASEP system, which allows creating end-user business rules that technically support the specific events, conditions and actions related to evacuation plans. An experimental validation was carried out where 32 people faced a simulated emergency situation, 16 of them using SASEP and the other 16 using a legacy system based on static signs. From the results obtained, we compare both techniques and discuss in which situations SASEP offers a better evacuation route option, confirming that it is highly valuable when there is a threat in the evacuation route. In addition, a study about user satisfaction using both systems is presented showing in which cases the systems are assessed as satisfactory, relevant and not frustrating.

  10. A Feeder-Bus Dispatch Planning Model for Emergency Evacuation in Urban Rail Transit Corridors. (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Yan, Xuedong; Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Wenyi

    The mobility of modern metropolises strongly relies on urban rail transit (URT) systems, and such a heavy dependence causes that even minor service interruptions would make the URT systems unsustainable. This study aims at optimally dispatching the ground feeder-bus to coordinate with the urban rails' operation for eliminating the effect of unexpected service interruptions in URT corridors. A feeder-bus dispatch planning model was proposed for the collaborative optimization of URT and feeder-bus cooperation under emergency situations and minimizing the total evacuation cost of the feeder-buses. To solve the model, a concept of dummy feeder-bus system is proposed to transform the non-linear model into traditional linear programming (ILP) model, i.e., traditional transportation problem. The case study of Line #2 of Nanjing URT in China was adopted to illustrate the model application and sensitivity analyses of the key variables. The modeling results show that as the evacuation time window increases, the total evacuation cost as well as the number of dispatched feeder-buses decrease, and the dispatched feeder-buses need operate for more times along the feeder-bus line. The number of dispatched feeder-buses does not show an obvious change with the increase of parking spot capacity and time window, indicating that simply increasing the parking spot capacity would cause huge waste for the emergent bus utilization. When the unbalanced evacuation demand exists between stations, the more feeder-buses are needed. The method of this study will contribute to improving transportation emergency management and resource allocation for URT systems.


    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Jianhua; Dragsted, Janne; Furbo, Simon


    Differently designed heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors have been investigated theoretically and experimentally. The theoretical work has included development of two TRNSYS [1] simulation models for heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors utilizing solar radiation from all directions. One model...... is developed for heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors with flat fins and one model is developed for heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors with curved fins. The models are characterized by detailed calculations of the heat transfer processes in the fins, by detailed shadow modeling and by fins with selective...... coating on both sides. The input to the models is thus not a simple collector efficiency expression but the actual collector geometry. In this study, the TRNSYS models are validated with measurements for four differently designed heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors. The collectors are produced...

  12. Bilevel Traffic Evacuation Model and Algorithm Design for Large-Scale Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danwen Bao


    Full Text Available This paper establishes a bilevel planning model with one master and multiple slaves to solve traffic evacuation problems. The minimum evacuation network saturation and shortest evacuation time are used as the objective functions for the upper- and lower-level models, respectively. The optimizing conditions of this model are also analyzed. An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO method is proposed by introducing an electromagnetism-like mechanism to solve the bilevel model and enhance its convergence efficiency. A case study is carried out using the Nanjing Olympic Sports Center. The results indicate that, for large-scale activities, the average evacuation time of the classic model is shorter but the road saturation distribution is more uneven. Thus, the overall evacuation efficiency of the network is not high. For induced emergencies, the evacuation time of the bilevel planning model is shortened. When the audience arrival rate is increased from 50% to 100%, the evacuation time is shortened from 22% to 35%, indicating that the optimization effect of the bilevel planning model is more effective compared to the classic model. Therefore, the model and algorithm presented in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the traffic-induced evacuation decision making of large-scale activities.

  13. Planning and design of evacuation systems in fossil power plants; Projektierung von Raeumungsanlagen in fossilen Kraftwerken

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marth, Lothar [Bosch Sicherheitssysteme GmbH, Grasbrunn (Germany). Key Account Management, Building Security (ST-BT/SKA)


    If, e.g. a power plant needs to be evacuated because of fire, minutes count. While the plant personnel is familiar with the local conditions including escape routes and gathering places, there will also be a lot of external staff at the site, e.g. during inspections. An evacuation concept must therefore take into account and also guarantee fast and reliable evacuation during inspections. Next to organisational issues and clear responsibilities, such a concept also must define a suitable combination of voice evacuation systems, tone alarms, and visual alarms, all of which must be specifically designed for the respective environment. (orig.)

  14. Robust model-based optimization of evacuation guidance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibregtse, O.L.


    Large scale disasters, such as floods and fires, cause many casualties. This risk of casualties is reduced by evacuating the people from the threatened region. By guiding these people, i.e. instructing them when and where to go, the efficiency of the evacuation is increased. This means that, for

  15. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price


    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  16. Real-time micro-modelling of city evacuations (United States)

    Löhner, Rainald; Haug, Eberhard; Zinggerling, Claudio; Oñate, Eugenio


    A methodology to integrate geographical information system (GIS) data with large-scale pedestrian simulations has been developed. Advances in automatic data acquisition and archiving from GIS databases, automatic input for pedestrian simulations, as well as scalable pedestrian simulation tools have made it possible to simulate pedestrians at the individual level for complete cities in real time. An example that simulates the evacuation of the city of Barcelona demonstrates that this is now possible. This is the first step towards a fully integrated crowd prediction and management tool that takes into account not only data gathered in real time from cameras, cell phones or other sensors, but also merges these with advanced simulation tools to predict the future state of the crowd.

  17. An Information Perception-Based Emotion Contagion Model for Fire Evacuation (United States)

    Liu, Ting Ting; Liu, Zhen; Ma, Minhua; Xuan, Rongrong; Chen, Tian; Lu, Tao; Yu, Lipeng


    In fires, people are easier to lose their mind. Panic will lead to irrational behavior and irreparable tragedy. It has great practical significance to make contingency plans for crowd evacuation in fires. However, existing studies about crowd simulation always paid much attention on the crowd density, but little attention on emotional contagion that may cause a panic. Based on settings about information space and information sharing, this paper proposes an emotional contagion model for crowd in panic situations. With the proposed model, a behavior mechanism is constructed for agents in the crowd and a prototype of system is developed for crowd simulation. Experiments are carried out to verify the proposed model. The results showed that the spread of panic not only related to the crowd density and the individual comfort level, but also related to people's prior knowledge of fire evacuation. The model provides a new way for safety education and evacuation management. It is possible to avoid and reduce unsafe factors in the crowd with the lowest cost.

  18. Dynamics-Based Stranded-Crowd Model for Evacuation in Building Bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidi Huang


    Full Text Available In high-density public buildings, it is difficult to evacuate. So in this paper, we propose a novel quantitative evacuation model to insure people’s safety and reduce the risk of crowding. We analyze the mechanism of arch-like clogging phenomena during evacuation and the influencing factors in emergency situations at bottleneck passages; then we design a model based on crowd dynamics and apply the model to a stadium example. The example is used to compare evacuation results of crowd density with different egress widths in stranded zones. The results show this model proposed can guide the safe and dangerous egress widths in performance design and can help evacuation routes to be selected and optimized.

  19. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.


    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  20. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František


    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  1. A sigmoid model to predict gastric evacuation rates of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieui fed juvenile salmon (United States)

    Rogers, Jean Beyer; Burley , Craig C.


    Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine the effects of water temperature, predator size, prey size, and prey number on gastric evacuation of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) fed juvenile salmon. The smallmouth bass were allowed to feed voluntarily after 24–48 h of starvation and stomachs were pumped at intervals of 1–4 h until 90% of the stomach contents were evacuated (E90). Evacuation approximated an S-shaped curve over time, and a sigmoid model was developed to predict evacuation at varying water temperatures, total meal weights, predator sizes, and prey number. The rate of evacuation increased with increasing water temperature, meal weight, or predator size. The E90 increased with larger meal weights but decreased with increasing temperature or predator size. E90 ranged between 4 and 95 h, depending upon conditions. E90 was slower than those estimated previously for another predator of salmon, the stomachless northern squawfish (Ptychocheilus oregonensis).

  2. Prospect Theory and Interval-Valued Hesitant Set for Safety Evacuation Model (United States)

    Kou, Meng; Lu, Na


    The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.

  3. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning. (United States)

    Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J


    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulei Song


    Full Text Available The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities.

  5. Options for improving evacuation: Investigating an unconventional strategy and expanding route options using TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System. (United States)

    Lewis, Carol Abel; Onyejekwe, Sandra; Wynn, Garlin; Mosley, Brandon


    Various agencies including state departments of transportation, emergency management offices, a municipal works agency, or a highway patrol agency may prepare evacuation plans. Storm strength and landfall predictions determine procedures and strategies. Studies have been conducted that examined various methods considering evacuees' behaviors, traffic control, safety, and preferential routing. The occasions when a hurricane is imminent require residents to make a choice between sheltering-in-place or evacuating. Tremendous growth is anticipated in many US coastal communities and that will place greater pressure on evacuation strategies in future years. Given the inevitability of future hurricane evacuations and the intensive growth projections for US coastal areas, this research examines evacuation options with a focus on the Houston-Galveston region. The research examines two scenarios using the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System simulation model which relies on a GIS base. Study results showed that both scenarios perform well as alternative options for inclusion in regional planning. It is recommended that these two scenarios be included in the array of responses available for decision makers depending on the myriad of variables-citizen response, congestion levels on the roadways and location, and prediction of an impending storm. The options may be applied independently or in concert with other strategies.

  6. A Space-Time Flow Optimization Model for Neighborhood Evacuation (United States)


    Arriba KEN04 750 2.1 2 17. Montrose and Cheltenham MONTROSE01 1000 2.8 3 18. Williams and Palomino PALOMINO16 850 2.4 3 19. Montrose and Tunnel Losing the intersection of Palomino and Williams isolates 51 homes, but results in an improvement in evacuation time for the remaining homes

  7. Societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuation (United States)

    McCaughey, Jamie W.; Mundzir, Ibnu; Patt, Anthony; Rosemary, Rizanna; Safrina, Lely; Mahdi, Saiful; Daly, Patrick


    Uncertainties in forecasting extreme events force an unavoidable tradeoff between false alarms and misses. The appropriate balance depends on the level of societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuations, but there has been little empirical research on this. Intuitively it may seem that an unnecessary evacuation would make people less likely to evacuate again in the future, but our study finds no support for this intuition. Using new quantitative (n=800) and qualitative evidence, we examine individual- and household-level evacuation decisions in response to the strong 11-Apr-2012 earthquake in Aceh, Indonesia. This earthquake did not produce a tsunami, but the population had previously experienced the devastating 2004 tsunami. In our sample, the vast majority of people (86%) evacuated in the 2012 earthquake, and nearly all (94%) say they would evacuate again if a similar earthquake happened in the future. Self-reported level of fear at the moment of the 2012 earthquake explains more of the variance in evacuation decisions and intentions than does a combination of perceived tsunami risk and perceived efficacy of evacuation modeled on protection motivation theory. These findings suggest that the appropriate balance between false alarms and misses may be highly context-specific. Investigating this in each context would make an important contribution to the effectiveness of early-warning systems.

  8. A Modified Floor Field Model and Pareto Optimum of Pedestrian Evacuation Efficiency

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    Yan Xu


    Full Text Available A modified floor field model is proposed to simulate the pedestrian evacuation behavior in a room with multiple exits. The modification relies upon introduction of a so-called semidynamical floor field which additionally embodies two cognition coefficients related to exit width and pedestrian distribution around exits. The energy consumption and time requirement of evacuees are numerically investigated and the Pareto optimum of evacuation efficiency is obtained by selecting the combinations of the two cognition coefficients.

  9. Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach (United States)

    Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara


    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  10. Multi-Grid Model for Crowd’s Evacuation in Ships Based on Cellular Automata

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    Chen Miao


    Full Text Available In order to enhance the authenticity and accuracy simulation of passengers’ evacuation in ships, a new multi-grid model is proposed on the basis of cellular automata theory. By finer lattice the multi-grid model could enhance the continuity of passengers’ track and the precision of boundary’s qualification compared with traditional cellular automata model. Attraction, repulsion and friction are also quantized in the multi-grid model to present the impact of interaction force among pedestrians. Furthermore, crowd’s evacuation simulated by traditional cellular automata and multi-grid model in single exit room and typical cabin environment have been taken as examples to analyze crowd’s motion laws. It is found that the laws of passengers’ evacuation simulated by the two models are similar, and the simulation authenticity and accuracy is enhanced by the multi-grid model.

  11. Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Liu, Hong; Qin, Xin; Liu, Baoxi


    Studies of crowd behavior with related research on computer simulation provide an effective basis for architectural design and effective crowd management. Based on low-density group organization patterns, a modified two-layer social force model is proposed in this paper to simulate and reproduce a group gathering process. First, this paper studies evacuation videos from the Luan'xian earthquake in 2012, and extends the study of group organization patterns to a higher density. Furthermore, taking full advantage of the strength in crowd gathering simulations, a new method on grouping and guidance is proposed while using crowd dynamics. Second, a real-life grouping situation in earthquake evacuation is simulated and reproduced. Comparing with the fundamental social force model and existing guided crowd model, the modified model reduces congestion time and truly reflects group behaviors. Furthermore, the experiment result also shows that a stable group pattern and a suitable leader could decrease collision and allow a safer evacuation process.

  12. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties. (United States)

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W


    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Mathematical Modeling of a developed Central Receiver Based on Evacuated Solar Tubes

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    Ali Basil. H.


    Full Text Available Solar central receiver plays a considerable role in the plant output power; it is one of the most important synthesis in the solar power tower plants. Its performance directly affects the efficiency of the entire solar power generation system. In this study, a new designed receiver model based on evacuated solar tube was proposed, and the dynamic characteristics of the developed receiver were investigated. In order to optimise and evaluate the dynamic characteristics of solar power plant components, the model investigates the solar radiation heat conversion process through the developed receiver, where the energy and mass conservation equations are used to determine the working fluid temperature and state through the receiver parts, beside the calculation and analysis of the thermal losses.

  14. Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis (United States)

    Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.


    Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.


    Baba, Yasuyuki; Ishigaki, Taisuke; Toda, Keiichi; Nakagawa, Hajime

    Many urbanized cities in Japan are located in alluvial plains, and the vulnerability of urbanized areas to flood disaster is highlighted by flood attacks due to heavy rain fall or typhoons. Underground spaces located in the urbanized area are flood-prone areas, and the intrusion of flood watar into underground space inflicted severe damages on urban functions and infrastructures. In a similar way, low-lying areas like "bowl-shaped" depression and underpasses under highway and railroad bridges are also prone to floods. The underpasses are common sites of accidents of submerged vehicles, and severe damage including human damage occasionally occurs under flooding conditions. To reduce the damage due to inundation in underground space, needless to say, early evacuation is one of the most important countermeasures. This paper shows some experimental results of evacuation tests from underground spaces under inundated situations. The difficulities of the evacuation from underground space has been investigated by using real scale models (door, staircase and vehicle), and the limit for safety evacuation is discussed. From the results, it is found that water depth of 0.3 - 0.4m would be a critical situation for the evacuation from underground space through staircases and door and that 0.7 - 0.8m deep on the ground would be also a critical situation for safety evacuation though the doors of the vehicle. These criteria have some possibility to vary according to different inundated situations, and they are also influenced by the individual variation like the difference of physical strength. This means that these criteria requires cautious stance to use although they show a sort of an index of the limitation for saftty evacuation from underground space.

  16. Game theory in models of pedestrian room evacuation. (United States)

    Bouzat, S; Kuperman, M N


    We analyze the pedestrian evacuation of a rectangular room with a single door considering a lattice gas scheme with the addition of behavioral aspects of the pedestrians. The movement of the individuals is based on random and rational choices and is affected by conflicts between two or more agents that want to advance to the same position. Such conflicts are solved according to certain rules closely related to the concept of strategies in game theory, cooperation and defection. We consider game rules analogous to those from the Prisoner's Dilemma and Stag Hunt games, with payoffs associated to the probabilities of the individuals to advance to the selected site. We find that, even when defecting is the rational choice for any agent, under certain conditions, cooperators can take advantage from mutual cooperation and leave the room more rapidly than defectors.

  17. Evacuation of the ICU (United States)

    Niven, Alexander S.; Beninati, William; Fang, Ray; Einav, Sharon; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan; Devereaux, Asha V.; Christian, Michael D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Christian, Michael D.; Devereaux, Asha V.; Dichter, Jeffrey R.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Rubinson, Lewis; Amundson, Dennis; Anderson, Michael R.; Balk, Robert; Barfield, Wanda D.; Bartz, Martha; Benditt, Josh; Beninati, William; Berkowitz, Kenneth A.; Daugherty Biddison, Lee; Braner, Dana; Branson, Richard D; Burkle, Frederick M.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Carr, Brendan G.; Courtney, Brooke; DeDecker, Lisa D.; De Jong, Marla J.; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Dries, David; Einav, Sharon; Erstad, Brian L.; Etienne, Mill; Fagbuyi, Daniel B.; Fang, Ray; Feldman, Henry; Garzon, Hernando; Geiling, James; Gomersall, Charles D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Hanfling, Dan; Hick, John L.; Hodge, James G.; Hupert, Nathaniel; Ingbar, David; Kanter, Robert K.; King, Mary A.; Kuhnley, Robert N.; Lawler, James; Leung, Sharon; Levy, Deborah A.; Lim, Matthew L.; Livinski, Alicia; Luyckx, Valerie; Marcozzi, David; Medina, Justine; Miramontes, David A.; Mutter, Ryan; Niven, Alexander S.; Penn, Matthew S.; Pepe, Paul E.; Powell, Tia; Prezant, David; Reed, Mary Jane; Rich, Preston; Rodriquez, Dario; Roxland, Beth E.; Sarani, Babak; Shah, Umair A.; Skippen, Peter; Sprung, Charles L.; Subbarao, Italo; Talmor, Daniel; Toner, Eric S.; Tosh, Pritish K.; Upperman, Jeffrey S.; Uyeki, Timothy M.; Weireter, Leonard J.; West, T. Eoin; Wilgis, John; Ornelas, Joe; McBride, Deborah; Reid, David; Baez, Amado; Baldisseri, Marie; Blumenstock, James S.; Cooper, Art; Ellender, Tim; Helminiak, Clare; Jimenez, Edgar; Krug, Steve; Lamana, Joe; Masur, Henry; Mathivha, L. Rudo; Osterholm, Michael T.; Reynolds, H. Neal; Sandrock, Christian; Sprecher, Armand; Tillyard, Andrew; White, Douglas; Wise, Robert; Yeskey, Kevin


    BACKGROUND: Despite the high risk for patient harm during unanticipated ICU evacuations, critical care providers receive little to no training on how to perform safe and effective ICU evacuations. We reviewed the pertinent published literature and offer suggestions for the critical care provider regarding ICU evacuation. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. METHODS: The Evacuation and Mobilization topic panel used the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee’s methodology to develop seven key questions for which specific literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. RESULTS: Based on current best evidence, we provide 13 suggestions outlining a systematic approach to prepare for and execute an effective ICU evacuation during a disaster. Interhospital and intrahospital collaboration and functional ICU communication are critical for success. Pre-event planning and preparation are required for a no-notice evacuation. A Critical Care Team Leader must be designated within the Hospital Incident Command System. A three-stage ICU Evacuation Timeline, including (1) no immediate threat, (2) evacuation threat, and (3) evacuation implementation, should be used. Detailed suggestions on ICU evacuation, including regional planning, evacuation drills, patient transport preparation and equipment, patient prioritization and distribution for evacuation, patient information and tracking, and federal and international evacuation assistance systems, are also provided. CONCLUSIONS: Successful ICU evacuation during a disaster requires

  18. The Application Modular Floating Pontoon to Support Floods Disaster Evacuation System in Heavy Populated Residential Area

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    Ahmad Fauzan Zakki


    Full Text Available During floods disaster in the heavy populated residential area, the lack of existing life saving appliances system such as rubber boat and wooden boat were not able to evacuate the disaster victims spontaneously in mass. The condition might be explained since the rubber boat and wooden boat have limited occupant capacity. Based on the conditions, the main objectives of the research are focused on the evaluation of the application of modular floating pontoon as multipurpose floating equipment to support floods disaster evacuation process. The investigation of the modular floating pontoon performance such as hydrostatics characteristics, the equilibrium condition and the intact stability was studied using strip theory and Krylov’s method. Furthermore, the strength analysis of the modular floating pontoon structure was calculated using finite element method. The results show that the modular floating pontoon is reliable to support the evacuation process.

  19. NEXRAD Radar-based Hydraulic Flood Prediction System for a Major Evacuation Route in Houston (United States)

    Fang, Z.; Bedient, P. B.


    With the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and delivery systems on the internet, flood warning systems can provide communities and major traffic roads with important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. A major northbound evacuation route from Gulf Coast crossing Brays Bayou has historically been inundated due to its low elevation of the road deck. In order to relieve flood damages and save lives, a real-time NEXRAD radar-based flood alert system was developed for this cross section with an in-depth investigation focusing on the downstream section of Brays Bayou. This new system was developed utilizing existing hydrologic/hydraulic models, NEXRAD radar data, and the framework of the existing flood alert system (FAS2).The development followed three major steps: 1) creation of a real-time hydrologic model (RTHEC-1) from the current HEC-HMS model for Brays Bayou to accurately predict peak flows at the bridge; 2) addition of a predictive FloodPlain Map Library (FPML) to the current FAS2 to delineate floodplains and water surface elevations under various spatial and temporal conditions associated with rainfall intensities; and, 3) development of a centralized monitoring system incorporating local rain gauges and stream gauges. The FPML module is able to analyze NEXRAD radar rainfall intensities and patterns to quantify water surface elevations and delineate floodplains in real time, and will enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible.

  20. Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Schmidtlein, Mathew; Schelling, John; Frazier, T.


    Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.


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    Richasanty Septima S


    Full Text Available The research in this thesis was done to examine the model of traffic flow of volcanic disaster evacuation path for uphill and downhill roads. The assessment was focused on the area of disaster evacuation path from the Pante Raya Bener Meriah intersection to Takengon. This model is assessed for two different types of time when which a disaster occurs; the disaster occurred at night and the disaster occurred during the day, especially during peak hours (working hours. The model was developed with attention to the exixtence of inflow and outflow along the evacuation route. Furthermore, the model obtained is solved numerically by using finite difference method. The chosen approach of this method is upwind scheme with time and space steps using forward difference and backward difference. The solution of this model in the form of simulated vehicle density along evacuation pathways. The research conducted is in the form of a model of traffic flow on evacuation paths and restricted to the inflow and outflow without alternative path as well as the conditions of the road which are uphill and downhill, showed a high density of vehicles either at night or during the day. Uphill road conditions resulted in decreased vehicle speed and vehicle density will increase, while downhill road conditions resulted in increased vehicle speed and vehicle density will decrease, meaning that the road conditions which are uphill and downhill will greatly affect the process of evacuation. Degree vehicles of evacuation efficiency occuring at night without an alternative pathway produces a high efficiency so that it can be interpreted that the evacuation process in the evening was successful and runs better than the evacuation process during the day, and this is caused by the existence of vehicles on the road evacuation process started thus affecting the efficiency levels.

  2. Simulation of evacuation processes in a square with a partition wall using a cellular automaton model for pedestrian dynamics (United States)

    Zheng, Xiaoping; Li, Wei; Guan, Chao


    The level of service in public walking spaces is mainly determined by the differences in pedestrian traffic demand and infrastructure supply. A problem worth studying is the evacuation process in a closed square with partition wall. In this paper, a cellular automaton model is presented to simulate the evacuation process in the square. This model defines a floor field and considers the selection of an exit and effect of social forces. Some simulation results show the model’s correct description of the pedestrian dynamics. Both the total evacuation time and the degree of pedestrians jamming in a certain area are regarded as the indicators of the evacuation progress and the measure of evacuation efficiency. Concerning the two indicators, some viewpoints on the evacuation design of the partition wall are put forward: (1) changing the length of the partition wall could reduce the evacuation time, however, it could also bring the serious pedestrians jamming in a certain area, which may cause potential injury; (2) with the prior consideration for evacuation time, the length of the partition wall should be better chosen to make the pedestrians jamming less severe.

  3. Evacuation exercise

    CERN Multimedia



    In the event of an emergency, it is important that staff and visitors are evacuated safely and efficiently. Hence CERN organises regularly emergency response and evacuation exercise (also known as an ‘evacuation drill’) in different buildings across the sites.

  4. Discrete element crowd model for pedestrian evacuation through an exit (United States)

    Peng, Lin; Jian, Ma; Siuming, Lo


    A series of accidents caused by crowds within the last decades evoked a lot of scientific interest in modeling the movement of pedestrian crowds. Based on the discrete element method, a granular dynamic model, in which the human body is simplified as a self-driven sphere, is proposed to simulate the characteristics of crowd flow through an exit. In this model, the repulsive force among people is considered to have an anisotropic feature, and the physical contact force due to body deformation is quantified by the Hertz contact model. The movement of the human body is simulated by applying the second Newton’s law. The crowd flow through an exit at different desired velocities is studied and simulation results indicated that crowd flow exhibits three distinct states, i.e., smooth state, transition state and phase separation state. In the simulation, the clogging phenomenon occurs more easily when the desired velocity is high and the exit may as a result be totally blocked at a desired velocity of 1.6 m/s or above, leading to faster-to-frozen effect. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71473207, 51178445, and 71103148), the Research Grant Council, Government of Hong Kong, China (Grant No. CityU119011), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China (Grant Nos. 2682014CX103 and 2682014RC05).

  5. Identification of Evacuation Routes in Tacloban City using Geographic Information System (United States)

    Mendoza, Jerico; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth


    The Philippines is the second most at risk to natural hazards according to the 2014 World Risk Report. On 8 November 2013, category 5 Typhoon Haiyan crossed the central region of the Philippines with maximum sustained wind reaching 315 kph. Considered as one of the strongest typhoons that made landfall in recorded history, Typhoon Haiyan caused USD 8 billion damage to properties, 6,293 deaths, 28,689 injured and 1,061 missing persons. Tacloban City, located in the north-eastern part of the island of Leyte in Eastern Visayas region, is one of the area most devastated by Typhoon Haiyan. The city is susceptible to other natural hazards given its geography, topography and geology. This condition emphasizes the need for preventive measures to avoid further loss of lives and destruction to properties. Evacuation is a mitigating strategy which involves the process of moving people from dangerous places to safer locations. Using Geographic Information System (GIS), a multi-hazard map of Tacloban City was created to determine safe areas for evacuation centers. The optimal route for evacuation was identified using ArcGIS Network Analyst's routing solver based on Dijkstra's algorithm. The medium of transportation used in the analysis is by foot with an average speed of 5.0 kph. Furthermore, the study assumes that all roads are passable and fully functional during the travel period and that there are no structures, trees and other debris that may act as road blockage. The study can be used as a reference in hazard assessment for disaster risk management and evacuation planning. This can be further improved by incorporating behaviour of the affected population and other socio-economic factors, different modes of transportation and detailed analysis of topography.

  6. Modeling Altruistic and Aggressive Driver Behavior in a No-Notice Evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandstetter, Tim [Kimley-Horn and Associates; Garrow, Dr. Laurie [Georgia Institute of Technology; Hunter, Dr. Michael [Georgia Institute of Technology; Southworth, Frank [ORNL


    This study examines the impact of altruistic and aggressive driver behavior on the effectiveness of an evacuation for a section of downtown Atlanta. The study area includes 37 signalized intersections, seven ramps, and 48 parking lots that vary by size, type (lot versus garage), peak volume, and number of ingress and egress points. A detailed microscopic model of the study area was created in VISSIM. Different scenarios examined the impacts of driver behavior on parking lot discharge rates and the loading rates from side streets on primary evacuation routes. A new methodology was created to accurately represent parking lot discharge rates. This study is also unique in that it assumes a "worst case scenario" that occurs with no advance notice during the morning peak period, when vehicles must transition from inbound to outbound routes. Simulation results indicate that while overall network clearance times are similar across scenarios, the distribution of delay on individual routes and across parking lots differ markedly. More equitable solutions (defined as the allocation of delay from parking lots and side streets to main evacuation routes) were observed with altruistic driver behavior.

  7. Community Based Warning and Evacuation System against Debris Flow in the Upper Jeneberang River, Gowa, South Sulawesi

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    Sutikno Hardjosuwarno


    Full Text Available Gigantic collapse of the Caldera wall of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m in March 2004 had supplied the sediment volume of 230 million to the most upper stream of Jeneberang River, which flowed down to the lower reach in the form of debris flow which is triggered by rainfall. The purpose of the research is to provide a system which is able to forecast the occurrence of debris flow, to identify the weak points along the river course, to identify the hazard areas and how to inform effectively and efficiently the warning messages to the inhabitants in the dangerous area by using the existing modern equipment combined with the traditional one. The standard rainfall which is used to judge the occurrence of debris flow was established by Yano method. It is based on the historical data of rainfall that trigger and not trigger to the occurrence of debris flow which is widely used in Japan so far. The hazard area was estimated by Two-Dimensional Simulation Model for debris flow, the debris flow arrival time at each point in the river were estimated by dividing their distance from reference point by debris flow velocity, where the check dam no. 7-1 in Manimbahoi was designated as reference point. The existing evacuation routes were checked by field survey, the strength and coverage of sound for kentongan and manual siren were examined using sound pressure level at the location of the existing monitoring post and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation were evaluated by comparing the warning and evacuation time against the debris flow arrival time. It was resulted that debris flow occurrence was triggered by short duration of high rainfall intensity, long duration of low rainfall intensity and the outbreak of natural dam which is formed by land slide or bank collapses. The hazard area of upper Jeneberang River are mostly located on the river terraces where the local inhabitants earn their living through cultivating the river terraces as paddy fields, dry

  8. Evacuation Analysis of 1200 GT Passenger Ship in Case of Fire using Agent-Based Modeling Approach

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    Muhammad Badrus Zaman


    Full Text Available This study discusses about safety on board especially during fire condition. During fire, all passengers and crew had to beevacuated into safe place. The study observe at 1200 GT passenger ships, a typical ship which have small dimension vessel characteristic but able to carry passenger more than four hundred persons and also could containt cargo. When the ship was on fire at any circumstances that requires passengers need to be evacuated, it’s obvious that there will be a buildup of passengers when passing through stairs and corridors. The calculation use to estimate evacuation time required based on the IMO guidelines. Studies continued by creating evacuation simulation using Agent-Based Modeling, a simulation modeling that assume human being as an agent that has characteristics resemble to real state of motion. The comparation between the two methods, calculation and simulation are both using two scenarios, day and night conditions. Result show that the simulation generates evacuation time shorter than the calculation method. In the numerical calculation takes 689 seconds and 1595 seconds in day and night conditions, while in the simulation process takes 548 seconds and 1374 seconds in day and night conditions sequentially. This studies also followed by fire modeling study that aims to determine the spread of heat and smoke produced from fire. On the condition of fire, smokewords. production will interfere passengers in the evacuation process. The evacuation time becomes longer and estimates the potential victims affected by fire.

  9. A floor field real-coded lattice gas model for crowd evacuation (United States)

    Tao, Y. Z.; Dong, L. Y.


    In this paper we present a modified real-coded lattice gas (RLG) model in which the floor field is introduced. The floor field is calculated on finer lattices in order to determine the pedestrians' direction accurately. Thus, the pedestrian's motion has many more degrees of freedom compared with existing discrete models. Furthermore, the walking speed is determined by the available space ahead of the pedestrians in a multi-step way. Therefore, the model can precisely describe the pedestrians' motion. Then, we calibrate model parameters by comparing with the existing measured data. Finally, we employ this model to investigate normal evacuation from a room. The conclusions are as follows: 1) In the single-exit room, for a given exit width larger than 0.6 m, the average specific flow increases with the initial number of pedestrians. For a given initial number of pedestrians, the specific flow increases first and then decreases when the width of the exit increases. 2) The evacuation time of the two-exit room is less than that of the single-exit room only when the total width is greater than 1.6 m.

  10. Theoretical modeling and experimental analysis of solar still integrated with evacuated tubes (United States)

    Panchal, Hitesh; Awasthi, Anuradha


    In this present research work, theoretical modeling of single slope, single basin solar still integrated with evacuated tubes has been performed based on energy balance equations. Major variables like water temperature, inner glass cover temperature and distillate output has been computed based on theoretical modeling. The experimental setup has been made from locally available materials and installed at Gujarat Power Engineering and Research Institute, Mehsana, Gujarat, India (23.5880°N, 72.3693°E) with 0.04 m depth during 6 months of time interval. From the series of experiments, it is found considerable increment in average distillate output of a solar still when integrated with evacuated tubes not only during daytime but also from night time. In all experimental cases, the correlation of coefficient (r) and root mean square percentage deviation of theoretical modeling and experimental study found good agreement with 0.97 < r < 0.98 and 10.22 < e < 38.4% respectively.

  11. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Department of Veterans Affairs: a conceptual model for understanding the evacuation of nursing homes. (United States)

    Dobalian, Aram; Claver, Maria; Fickel, Jacqueline J


    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita exposed significant flaws in US preparedness for catastrophic events and the nation's capacity to respond to them. These flaws were especially evident in the affected disaster areas' nursing homes, which house a particularly vulnerable population of frail older adults. Although evacuation of a healthcare facility is a key preparedness activity, there is limited research on factors that lead to effective evacuation. Our review of the literature on evacuation is focused on developing a conceptual framework to study future evacuations rather than as a comprehensive assessment of prior work. This paper summarizes what is known thus far about disaster response activities of nursing homes following natural and human-caused disasters, describes a conceptual model to guide future inquiry regarding this topic, and suggests future areas of research to further understand the decision-making process of nursing home facilitators regarding evacuating nursing home residents. To demonstrate the utility of the conceptual model and to provide guidance about effective practices and procedures, this paper focuses on the responses of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) nursing homes to the 2 hurricanes. Quarantelli's conceptual framework, as modified by Perry and Mushkatel, is useful in guiding the development of central hypotheses related to the decision-making that occurred in VA nursing homes and other healthcare facilities following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. However, we define evacuation somewhat differently to account for the fact that evacuation may, in some instances, be permanent. Thus, we propose modifying this framework to improve its applicability beyond preventive evacuation. We need to better understand how disaster plans can be adapted to meet the needs of frail elders and other residents in nursing homes. Moreover, we must address identified gaps in the scientific literature with respect to health outcomes by tracking outcomes over time

  12. Design considerations for residential solar heating and cooling systems utilizing evacuated tube solar collectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, D. S.; Ward, J. C.


    As solar heating systems become a commercial reality, greater efforts are now being employed to incorporate solar cooling components in order to obtain a complete solar heating and cooling system, and thus take advantage of the cost-effectiveness of year-round use of the solar equipment. The solar heating and cooling system design presented incorporates design considerations which have been obtained from previous experimental efforts utilizing evacuated tube solar collectors. These advanced collectors are capable of significantly higher efficiencies, even at the higher temperatures required for solar cooling operation. Most of the considerations presented are based on the experience gained in the design and performance of the solar heating and cooling systems for CSU Solar Houses I through IV.

  13. Study on the Principle Mechanisms of Heat Transfer for Cryogenic Insulations: Especially Accounting for the Temperature-Dependent Deposition-Evacuation of the Filling Gas (Self-Evacuating Systems) (United States)

    Geisler, Matthias; Vidi, Stephan; Ebert, Hans-Peter


    This study concentrates on the principles of heat transfer within cryogenic insulation systems, especially accounting for self-evacuating systems (deposition-evacuation of the filling gas). These principles allow the extrapolation to other temperatures, gases and other materials with the input of only a few experimentally derived or carefully estimated material properties. The type of gas (e.g. air or CO2) within the porous insulation material dominates the behaviour of the effective thermal conductivity during the cooldown of the cryogenic application. This is due to the specific temperature-dependent saturation gas pressure which determines the contribution of the gas conductivity. The selected material classes include powders, fibrous insulations, foams, aerogels and multilayer insulations in the temperature range of 20 K to 300 K. Novel within this study is an analytical function for the total and the mean thermal conductivity with respect to the temperature, type of gas, external pressure and material class of the insulation. Furthermore, the integral mean value of the thermal conductivity, the so-called mean thermal conductivity, is calculated for a mechanically evacuated insulation material and an insulation material evacuated by deposition-evacuation of the filling gas, respectively. This enables a comparison of the total thermal conductivity of cryogenic insulation materials and their applicability for a self-evacuating cryogenic insulation system.

  14. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana


    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  15. Emergency evacuation/transportation plan update: Traffic model development and evaluation of early closure procedures. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    Prolonged delays in traffic experienced by Laboratory personnel during a recent early dismissal in inclement weather, coupled with reconstruction efforts along NM 502 east of the White Rock Wye for the next 1 to 2 years, has prompted Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to re-evaluate and improve the present transportation plan and its integration with contingency plans maintained in other organizations. Facilities planners and emergency operations staff need to evaluate the transportation system`s capability to inefficiently and safely evacuate LANL under different low-level emergency conditions. A variety of potential procedures governing the release of employees from the different technical areas (TAs) requires evaluation, perhaps with regard to multiple emergency-condition scenarios, with one or more optimal procedures ultimately presented for adoption by Lab Management. The work undertaken in this project will hopefully lay a foundation for an on-going, progressive transportation system analysis capability. It utilizes microscale simulation techniques to affirm, reassess and validate the Laboratory`s Early Dismissal/Closure/Delayed Opening Plan. The Laboratory is required by Federal guidelines, and compelled by prudent practice and conscientious regard for the welfare of employees and nearby residents, to maintain plans and operating procedures for evacuation if the need arises. The tools developed during this process can be used outside of contingency planning. It is anticipated that the traffic models developed will allow site planners to evaluate changes to the traffic network which could better serve the normal traffic levels. Changes in roadway configuration, control strategies (signalization and signing), response strategies to traffic accidents, and patterns of demand can be modelled using the analysis tools developed during this project. Such scenarios typically are important considerations in master planning and facilities programming.

  16. An early-stage design model for estimating ship evacuation patterns using the ship-centric Markov decision process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kana, A.A.; Droste, K.


    An early-stage design model is presented that estimates personnel locations on board a vessel during times of evacuation. This model takes into account various levels of uncertainty and pain that individuals may feel while heading toward safety, while simultaneously not requiring highly detailed

  17. Potential Field Cellular Automata Model for Pedestrian Evacuation in a Domain with a Ramp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Xia Jian


    Full Text Available We propose a potential field cellular automata model with a pushing force field to simulate the pedestrian evacuation in a domain with a ramp. We construct a cost potential depending on the ramp angle and introduce a function to evaluate the pushing force, which is related to the cost and the desired direction of pedestrian. With increase of crowd density, there is no empty space for pedestrian moving forward; pedestrian will purposefully push another pedestrian on her or his desired location to arrive the destination quickly. We analyse the relationship between the slope of ramp and the pushing force and investigate the changing of injured situations with the changing of the slope of ramp. When the number of pedestrians and the ramp angle arrive at certain critical points, the Domino effect will be simulated by this proposed model.

  18. A user-operated model to study strategy in aircraft evacuation (United States)

    Cagliostro, D. E.


    A computer model is described to study strategies used by passengers evacuating a burning aircraft. Two baseline cases are presented to demonstrate the model. In the first case, in a simple scenario, strategies were found to change from even movement to the nearest exit to others farthest from the fire. In the second case, a test studying the effects of obstacles on passenger movement, nonlinear effects were found that may increase the time required to escape. The presence of obstacles created bottlenecks and, in some cases, isolated whole sections of the passenger cabin, making it impossible to escape. This occurred even though exits were still available for escape, but passengers could not reach them.

  19. A model for evacuation risk assessment with consideration of pre- and post-disaster factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, X.; Kwan, M.P.; Li, Q.; Chen, J.


    In urban areas, the occurrence of disasters can cause extensive damage to human society. For this reason, evacuation, regarded as a critical course of action to relocate people and property, helps to alleviate loss of life and property to a great extent. Risk associated with evacuation is an

  20. Modeling, simulation and analysis of the evacuation process on stairs in a multi-floor classroom building of a primary school (United States)

    Li, Wenhang; Li, Yi; Yu, Ping; Gong, Jianhua; Shen, Shen; Huang, Lin; Liang, Jianming


    Few studies have focused on the evacuation of multi-floor classroom buildings in a primary school, a process that differs from evacuations in other buildings. A stair-unit model was proposed to describe the spatial topology of twisting stairwells and to describe the spatial relationship between stairwells and floors. Based on the stair-unit model, a schedule-line model was proposed to calculate evacuation paths in stair-units; a modified algorithm to calculate pedestrian forces were proposed to describe the evacuee movements in stairwells; and a projection strategy was proposed to model the 3-dimensional evacuation process in multi-floor buildings. The simulated processes were compared with a real evacuation drill. The results showed that the simulated process achieved qualitative and quantitative consistencies with the real drill, proving the appropriateness of the proposed models and algorithms. Based on the validation, further simulations were conducted and a few rules for evacuations in stairwells were identified including rules governing the impact of the moment of entering a staircase, the number of students in a class, the stagger strategy, and the layout of grades on different floors on the time in stairwell and the total evacuation duration. The results can be used to mitigate the effects of a fire disaster, and the proposed models and algorithms can also be referenced by evacuation simulation for other multi-floor buildings such as residential buildings.

  1. Maximum Smoke Temperature in Non-Smoke Model Evacuation Region for Semi-Transverse Tunnel Fire


    B. Lou; Qiu, Y.; X. Long


    Smoke temperature distribution in non-smoke evacuation under different mechanical smoke exhaust rates of semi-transverse tunnel fire were studied by FDS numerical simulation in this paper. The effect of fire heat release rate (10MW 20MW and 30MW) and exhaust rate (from 0 to 160m3/s) on the maximum smoke temperature in non-smoke evacuation region was discussed. Results show that the maximum smoke temperature in non-smoke evacuation region decreased with smoke exhaust rate. Plug-holing was obse...

  2. An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Integrate Tsunami Science, Human Behavior, and Unplanned Network Disruptions for Nearfield Tsunami Evacuation (United States)

    Cox, D. T.; Wang, H.; Cramer, L.; Mostafizi, A.; Park, H.


    For the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) and other extreme near-field tsunami hazards, coastal residents and tourist must evacuate within 15 to 30 minutes immediately following intense ground-shaking and will be confronted with an array of choices: Should I evacuate on foot or by car? Alone, or find friends and family first? Head for high ground far away, or seek shelter a nearby building? How will the roads and bridges be affected by the preceding earthquake? In this project, we integrate the disciplines of tsunami inundation science, sociology, and civil engineering to investigate how decision-making by individual evacuees with respect to milling time, mode choice, and destination affects their life safety. We use an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to create credible scenarios for near-field tsunami evacuation. The ABM integrates (1) the time-dependent tsunami inundation computed separately using NOAA's ComMIT/MOST model, (2) population layers to account for variations in population density of residents and tourist, (3) evacuation route network including roads, bridges and foot paths for multi-modal transportation, and (4) evacuation destinations for horizontal and vertical evacuation. For this project, we apply the ABM at two locations: the city Seaside, OR, and South Beach State Park in Newport, OR. In the Seaside scenario, we show how unplanned network disruption - e.g. the partial or total failure of bridges due to the preceding earthquake - will affect life safety and show how the ABM can be used to provide retrofit strategies. For South Beach, we show how alternative routing can have a substantial impact on life safety. The ABM shows results that are initially counterintuitive. For the Seaside example, resource allocation for bridge retrofit favors investments in nodes and links not necessarily in close proximity to population centers. For the South Beach example, the routes which provide for the lowest risk (maximum life safety) are not always those with the

  3. Prototype design for a predictive model to improve evacuation operations : technical report. (United States)


    Mass evacuations of the Texas Gulf Coast remain a difficult challenge. These events are massive in scale, : highly complex, and entail an intricate, ever-changing conglomeration of technical and jurisdictional issues. : This project focused primarily...

  4. Evacuation transportation management. Task five, Operational concept (United States)


    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  5. Evacuation transportation management : task five : operational concept. (United States)


    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  6. Some aspects on kinetic modeling of evacuation dynamics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al. (United States)

    Calvo, Juan; Nieto, Juanjo


    The management of human crowds in extreme situations is a complex subject which requires to take into account a variety of factors. To name a few, the understanding of human behaviour, the psychological and behavioural features of individuals, the quality of the venue and the stress level of the pedestrian need to be addressed in order to select the most appropriate action during an evacuation process on a complex venue. In this sense, the mathematical modeling of such complex phenomena can be regarded as a very useful tool to understand and predict these situations. As presented in [4], mathematical models can provide guidance to the personnel in charge of managing evacuation processes, by means of helping to design a set of protocols, among which the most appropriate during a given critical situation is then chosen.

  7. Simulation and optimization of evacuation routes in case of fire in underground mines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vancho Adjiski


    Full Text Available Risks of fire occurrence in underground mines are known for a long time. Evacuation and rescue plans allow to each underground mine to respond and establish control in case of emergency. The primary goal of this paper is to determine the optimal system for evacuation in case of fire in underground mines and through a process of computer simulation to be presented to all workers that are affected by this issue. In this study is developed a system that allows by using available software to work out the complete evacuation plans that include analysis of fire scenarios and optimal routes for evacuation. With development of database of fire scenarios, it is possible to plan routes for evacuation in all situations. This presented methodology can serve to make effective system for evacuation and rescue in case of fire and to help save lives and protect the financial investment in the mine. This methodology represents the most economical option of making an effective system for evacuation and also can serve as an idea of making a software package that includes all the steps of making a system for evacuation and rescue in case of fire in underground mines. This presented model will have increased accuracy compared to other models presented so far, because of the prepared 3D model of the underground mine which includes the actual dimensions of the mine along with its associated elements from which the fire dynamics and system for evacuation depends.

  8. The Group Evacuation Behavior Based on Fire Effect in the Complicated Three-Dimensional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hu


    Full Text Available In order to effectively depict the group evacuation behavior in the complicated three-dimensional space, a novel pedestrian flow model is proposed with three-dimensional cellular automata. In this model the calculation methods of floor field and fire gain are elaborated at first, and the transition gain of target position at the next moment is defined. Then, in consideration of pedestrian intimacy and velocity change, the group evacuation strategy and evolution rules are given. Finally, the experiments were conducted with the simulation platform to study the relationships of evacuation time, pedestrian density, average system velocity, and smoke spreading velocity. The results had shown that large-scale group evacuation should be avoided, and in case of large pedestrian density, the shortest route of evacuation strategy would extend system evacuation time.

  9. A robust optimization model for distribution and evacuation in the disaster response phase (United States)

    Fereiduni, Meysam; Shahanaghi, Kamran


    Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, affect thousands of people and can cause enormous financial loss. Therefore, an efficient response immediately following a natural disaster is vital to minimize the aforementioned negative effects. This research paper presents a network design model for humanitarian logistics which will assist in location and allocation decisions for multiple disaster periods. At first, a single-objective optimization model is presented that addresses the response phase of disaster management. This model will help the decision makers to make the most optimal choices in regard to location, allocation, and evacuation simultaneously. The proposed model also considers emergency tents as temporary medical centers. To cope with the uncertainty and dynamic nature of disasters, and their consequences, our multi-period robust model considers the values of critical input data in a set of various scenarios. Second, because of probable disruption in the distribution infrastructure (such as bridges), the Monte Carlo simulation is used for generating related random numbers and different scenarios; the p-robust approach is utilized to formulate the new network. The p-robust approach can predict possible damages along pathways and among relief bases. We render a case study of our robust optimization approach for Tehran's plausible earthquake in region 1. Sensitivity analysis' experiments are proposed to explore the effects of various problem parameters. These experiments will give managerial insights and can guide DMs under a variety of conditions. Then, the performances of the "robust optimization" approach and the "p-robust optimization" approach are evaluated. Intriguing results and practical insights are demonstrated by our analysis on this comparison.

  10. Evacuation drill at CMS

    CERN Multimedia

    Niels Dupont-Sagorin and Christoph Schaefer


    Training personnel, including evacuation guides and shifters, checking procedures, improving collaboration with the CERN Fire Brigade: the first real-life evacuation drill at CMS took place on Friday 3 February from 12p.m. to 3p.m. in the two caverns located at Point 5 of the LHC.   CERN personnel during the evacuation drill at CMS. Evacuation drills are required by law and have to be organized periodically in all areas of CERN, both above and below ground. The last drill at CMS, which took place in June 2007, revealed some desiderata, most notably the need for a public address system. With this equipment in place, it is now possible to broadcast audio messages from the CMS control room to the underground areas.   The CMS Technical Coordination Team and the GLIMOS have focused particularly on preparing collaborators for emergency situations by providing training and organizing regular safety drills with the HSE Unit and the CERN Fire Brigade. This Friday, the practical traini...


    Inoue, Tomomi; Kawanaka, Ryuji; Ishigaki, Taisuke; Ozaki, Taira; Toda, Keiichi

    Torrential rainfalls have been observed frequently in recent years and these rainfalls caused inundations in urban and rural areas. Intensity of such rainfalls were sometimes excess over the design rainfall of drainage systems and rain was running over the road. In these floods, some portion of rainwater intruded into underground spaces and the users faced the danger of underground flooding. In this paper, underground flooding in a mega-underground mall were investigated by using 2D shallow flow model with structural mesh and evacuation from there was also studied with the criteria of safety evacuation obtained by evacuation tests. The results show that flooding processes and safety of evacuation are quite different in the two cases with and without the consideration of drainage system. It means that the inflow conditions into underground space are depend on calculation results of rainwater flooding.

  12. Use of Subdural Evacuating Port System Following Open Craniotomy with Excision of Native Dura and Membranes for Management of Chronic Subdural Hematoma. (United States)

    Cage, Tene; Bach, Ashley; McDermott, Michael W


    An 86-year-old woman was admitted to the intensive care unit with a chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) and rapid onset of worsening neurological symptoms. She was taken to the operating room for a mini-craniotomy for evacuation of the CSDH including excision of the dura and CSDH membrane. Postoperatively, a subdural evacuation port system (SEPS) was integrated into the craniotomy site and left in place rather than a traditional subdural catheter drain to evacuate the subdural space postoperatively. The patient had a good recovery and improvement of symptoms after evacuation and remained clinically well after the SEPS was removed. We offer the technique of dura and CSDH membrane excision plus SEPS drain as an effective postoperative alternative to the standard craniotomy leaving the native dura intact with traditional subdural drain that overlies the cortical surface of the brain in treating patients with CSDH.

  13. Evacuation dynamics of asymmetrically coupled pedestrian pairs

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Frank


    We propose and analyze extended floor field cellular automaton models for evacuation dynamics of inhomogeneous pedestrian pairs which are coupled by asymmetric group interactions. Such pairs consist of a leader, who mainly determines the couple's motion and a follower, who has a defined tendency to follow the leader. Examples for such pairs are mother and child or two siblings of different age. We examine the system properties and compare them to the case of a homogeneous crowd. We find a strong impact on evacuation times for the regime of strong pair coupling due to the occurrence of a clogging phenomenon. In addition we obtain a non-trivial dependence of evacuation times on the followers' coupling to the static floor field, which carries the information of the shortest way to the exit location. In particular we find that systems with fully passive followers, who are solely coupled to their leaders, show lower evacuation times than homogeneous systems where all pedestrians have an equal tendency to move towa...

  14. Study on the Performance of a Proposed Fire Safe Elevator System used for Evacuation in Supertall Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai Na


    Full Text Available Long evacuation time is a key fire safety concern when a supertall building is on fire. The elevator system can be an effective alternative. The performance of a design of fire safe elevator system combining the refuge place with fire safe elevator is studied. An example building based on this proposed design is considered. Smoke spread to the system is studied by the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD code Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. Different arrangements of smoke extraction with pressurization systems are evaluated by analysing the smoke dispersion and pressure distributions in this fire safe elevator system. Numerical results were compared with that by theoretical equations. The results show that a smoke extraction system with a four-floor approach pressurization system can be an efficient method for smoke control in elevator system for supertall buildings.

  15. A method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation (United States)

    Cao, Mengxiao; Zhang, Guijuan; Wang, Mengsi; Lu, Dianjie; Liu, Hong


    The current evacuation model does not consider the impact of emotion and personality on crowd evacuation. Thus, there is large difference between evacuation results and the real-life behavior of the crowd. In order to generate more realistic crowd evacuation results, we present a method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation. First, we combine OCEAN (Openness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism, Conscientiousness) model and SIS (Susceptible Infected Susceptible) model to construct the P-SIS (Personalized SIS) emotional contagion model. The P-SIS model shows the diversity of individuals in crowd effectively. Second, we couple the P-SIS model with the social force model to simulate emotional contagion on crowd evacuation. Finally, the photo-realistic rendering method is employed to obtain the animation of crowd evacuation. Experimental results show that our method can simulate crowd evacuation realistically and has guiding significance for crowd evacuation in the emergency circumstances.

  16. MiRTE: Mixed Reality Triage and Evacuation game for Mass Casualty information systems design, testing and training. (United States)

    Yu, Xunyi; Ganz, Aura


    In this paper we introduce a Mixed Reality Triage and Evacuation game, MiRTE, that is used in the development, testing and training of Mass Casualty Incident (MCI) information systems for first responders. Using the Source game engine from Valve software, MiRTE creates immersive virtual environments to simulate various incident scenarios, and enables interactions between multiple players/first responders. What distinguishes it from a pure computer simulation game is that it can interface with external mass casualty incident management systems, such as DIORAMA. The game will enable system developers to specify technical requirements of underlying technology, and test different alternatives of design. After the information system hardware and software are completed, the game can simulate various algorithms such as localization technologies, and interface with an actual user interface on PCs and Smartphones. We implemented and tested the game with the DIORAMA system.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The continuing growth of the LNG (liquid natural gas industry has led to a rapid increase in the construction of LNG terminals and the need for accurate risk assessment models as accidents involving LNG are potentially hazardous and pose a major threat. One aspect of risk modeling - evacuation of people to the safe zones of an LNG terminal - is a complex problem that has yet to receive sufficient attention. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the implementation of a technologically advanced evacuation model may decrease risk during potential accidents in an LNG terminal.

  18. Complex multimaterial insulating frames for windows with evacuated glazing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yueping Fang; Eames, P.C.; Hyde, T.J. [University of Ulster, Newtonabbey (United Kingdom). Centre for Sustainable Technologies; Norton, B. [Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin (Ireland)


    The thermal performance of a complex multimaterial frame consisting of an exoskeleton framework and cavities filled with insulant materials enclosing an evacuated glazing was simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model and the results were validated experimentally using a guarded hot box calorimeter. The analysed 0.5 m by 0.5 m evacuated glazing consisted of two low-emittance film coated glass panes supported by an array of 0.32 mm diameter pillars spaced 25 mm apart, contiguously sealed by a 10 mm wide metal edge seal. Thermal performance of windows employing evacuated glazing set in various complex multimaterial frames were analysed in detail. Very good agreement was found between simulations and experimental measurements of surface temperatures of the evacuated glazing window system. The heat loss from a window with an evacuated glazing and a complex multimaterial frame is about 80% of that for a window comprised of an evacuated glazing set in a single material solid frame. (author)

  19. Complex multimaterial insulating frames for windows with evacuated glazing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yueping; Eames, Philip C.; Hyde, Trevor J. [Centre for Sustainable Technologies, School of the Built Environment, University of Ulster, Newtownabbey, N. Ireland BT37 0QB (United Kingdom); Norton, Brian [Dublin Institute of Technology, Aungier Street, Dublin 2 (Ireland)


    The thermal performance of a complex multimaterial frame consisting of an exoskeleton framework and cavities filled with insulant materials enclosing an evacuated glazing was simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model and the results were validated experimentally using a guarded hot box calorimeter. The analysed 0.5m by 0.5m evacuated glazing consisted of two low-emittance film coated glass panes supported by an array of 0.32mm diameter pillars spaced 25mm apart, contiguously sealed by a 10mm wide metal edge seal. Thermal performance of windows employing evacuated glazing set in various complex multimaterial frames were analysed in detail. Very good agreement was found between simulations and experimental measurements of surface temperatures of the evacuated glazing window system. The heat loss from a window with an evacuated glazing and a complex multimaterial frame is about 80% of that for a window comprised of an evacuated glazing set in a single material solid frame. (author)

  20. Hurricane Evacuation Routes (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  1. Performance of evacuated tubular solar collectors in a residential heating and cooling system. Final report, 1 October 1978-30 September 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duff, W.S.; Loef, G.O.G.


    Operation of CSU Solar House I during the heating season of 1978-1979 and during the 1979 cooling season was based on the use of systems comprising an experimental evacuated tubular solar collector, a non-freezing aqueous collection medium, heat exchange to an insulated conventional vertical cylindrical storage tank and to a built-up rectangular insulated storage tank, heating of circulating air by solar heated water and by electric auxiliary in an off-peak heat storage unit, space cooling by lithium bromide absorption chiller, and service water heating by solar exchange and electric auxiliary. Automatic system control and automatic data acquisition and computation are provided. This system is compared with others evaluated in CSU Solar Houses I, II and III, and with computer predictions based on mathematical models. Of the 69,513 MJ total energy requirement for space heating and hot water during a record cold winter, solar provided 33,281 MJ equivalent to 48 percent. Thirty percent of the incident solar energy was collected and 29 percent was delivered and used for heating and hot water. Of 33,320 MJ required for cooling and hot water during the summer, 79 percent or 26,202 MJ were supplied by solar. Thirty-five percent of the incident solar energy was collected and 26 percent was used for hot water and cooling in the summer. Although not as efficient as the Corning evacuated tube collector previously used, the Philips experimental collector provides solar heating and cooling with minimum operational problems. Improved performance, particularly for cooling, resulted from the use of a very well-insulated heat storage tank. Day time (on-peak) electric auxiliary heating was completely avoided by use of off-peak electric heat storage. A well-designed and operated solar heating and cooling system provided 56 percent of the total energy requirements for heating, cooling, and hot water.

  2. Evacuation dynamics of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne


    The purpose of this study is to deliver new data and to bring attention to the subject of evacuation of children. Evacuation characteristics such as flow, densities and walking speeds are in focus. Currently literature on evacuation com-prehends mostly studies on adults. Ten Danish daycare centers...

  3. Treatment of chronic subdural hematomas with subdural evacuating port system placement in the intensive care unit: evolution of practice and comparison with bur hole evacuation in the operating room. (United States)

    Flint, Alexander C; Chan, Sheila L; Rao, Vivek A; Efron, Allen D; Kalani, Maziyar A; Sheridan, William F


    OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to evaluate a multiyear experience with subdural evacuating port system (SEPS) placement for chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) in the intensive care unit at a tertiary neurosurgical center and to compare SEPS placement with bur hole evacuation in the operating room. METHODS All cases of cSDH evacuation were captured over a 7-year period at a tertiary neurosurgical center within an integrated health care delivery system. The authors compared the performance characteristics of SEPS and bur hole placement with respect to recurrence rates, change in recurrence rates over time, complications, length of stay, discharge disposition, and mortality rates. RESULTS A total of 371 SEPS cases and 659 bur hole cases were performed (n = 1030). The use of bedside SEPS placement for cSDH treatment increased over the 7-year period, from 14% to 80% of cases. Reoperation within 6 months was higher for the SEPS (15.6%) than for bur hole drainage (9.1%) across the full 7-year period (p = 0.002). This observed overall difference was due to a higher rate of reoperation during the same hospitalization (7.0% for SEPS vs 3.2% for bur hole; p = 0.008). Over time, as the SEPS procedure became more common and modifications of the SEPS technique were introduced, the rate of in-hospital reoperation after SEPS decreased to 3.3% (p = 0.02 for trend), and the difference between SEPS and bur hole recurrence was no longer significant (p = 0.70). Complications were uncommon and were similar between the groups. CONCLUSIONS Overall performance characteristics of bedside SEPS and bur hole drainage in the operating room were similar. Modifications to the SEPS technique over time were associated with a reduced reoperation rate.

  4. An interval-parameter mixed integer multi-objective programming for environment-oriented evacuation management (United States)

    Wu, C. Z.; Huang, G. H.; Yan, X. P.; Cai, Y. P.; Li, Y. P.


    Large crowds are increasingly common at political, social, economic, cultural and sports events in urban areas. This has led to attention on the management of evacuations under such situations. In this study, we optimise an approximation method for vehicle allocation and route planning in case of an evacuation. This method, based on an interval-parameter multi-objective optimisation model, has potential for use in a flexible decision support system for evacuation management. The modeling solutions are obtained by sequentially solving two sub-models corresponding to lower- and upper-bounds for the desired objective function value. The interval solutions are feasible and stable in the given decision space, and this may reduce the negative effects of uncertainty, thereby improving decision makers' estimates under different conditions. The resulting model can be used for a systematic analysis of the complex relationships among evacuation time, cost and environmental considerations. The results of a case study used to validate the proposed model show that the model does generate useful solutions for planning evacuation management and practices. Furthermore, these results are useful for evacuation planners, not only in making vehicle allocation decisions but also for providing insight into the tradeoffs among evacuation time, environmental considerations and economic objectives.

  5. Agent-based Large-Scale Emergency Evacuation Using Real-Time Open Government Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL


    The open government initiatives have provided tremendous data resources for the transportation system and emergency services in urban areas. This paper proposes a traffic simulation framework using high temporal resolution demographic data and real time open government data for evacuation planning and operation. A comparison study using real-world data in Seattle, Washington is conducted to evaluate the framework accuracy and evacuation efficiency. The successful simulations of selected area prove the concept to take advantage open government data, open source data, and high resolution demographic data in emergency management domain. There are two aspects of parameters considered in this study: user equilibrium (UE) conditions of traffic assignment model (simple Non-UE vs. iterative UE) and data temporal resolution (Daytime vs. Nighttime). Evacuation arrival rate, average travel time, and computation time are adopted as Measure of Effectiveness (MOE) for evacuation performance analysis. The temporal resolution of demographic data has significant impacts on urban transportation dynamics during evacuation scenarios. Better evacuation performance estimation can be approached by integrating both Non-UE and UE scenarios. The new framework shows flexibility in implementing different evacuation strategies and accuracy in evacuation performance. The use of this framework can be explored to day-to-day traffic assignment to support daily traffic operations.

  6. Evacuated aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Jørgen Munthe; Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev


    This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space ......) combined with a solar energy transmittance above 0.75.......This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space...... between the glass panes is filled with monolithic silica aerogel evacuated to a rough vacuum of approximately 1-10 hPa. The aerogel glazing does not depend on use of low emissive coatings that have the drawback of absorbing a relatively large part of the solar radiation that otherwise could reduce...

  7. Evacuation transportation management : task four: interview and survey results. (United States)


    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  8. A Markov Decision Process Model for the Optimal Dispatch of Military Medical Evacuation Assets (United States)


    took it upon themselves to walk unaided back to friendly territory, a solution was conceived. Jonathan Letterman, the Medical Director of the Army of the...Rij + T s. (3.2) In order to provide a solution to the problem described in this section, we outline a general model in section 4 that will prove...service systems to improve patient survival. IIE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineering, 3(1), 39–56. [27] McLay, Laura A, & Mayorga, Maria E

  9. Design of AN Intelligent Individual Evacuation Model for High Rise Building Fires Based on Neural Network Within the Scope of 3d GIS (United States)

    Atila, U.; Karas, I. R.; Turan, M. K.; Rahman, A. A.


    One of the most dangerous disaster threatening the high rise and complex buildings of today's world including thousands of occupants inside is fire with no doubt. When we consider high population and the complexity of such buildings it is clear to see that performing a rapid and safe evacuation seems hard and human being does not have good memories in case of such disasters like world trade center 9/11. Therefore, it is very important to design knowledge based realtime interactive evacuation methods instead of classical strategies which lack of flexibility. This paper presents a 3D-GIS implementation which simulates the behaviour of an intelligent indoor pedestrian navigation model proposed for a self -evacuation of a person in case of fire. The model is based on Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) which is one of the most preferred artificial neural network architecture in classification and prediction problems. A sample fire scenario following through predefined instructions has been performed on 3D model of the Corporation Complex in Putrajaya (Malaysia) and the intelligent evacuation process has been realized within a proposed 3D-GIS based simulation.

  10. Decision Dynamics in Group Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Han, Fangqiu; Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Gür, Izzeddin; Carlson, Jean M


    Identifying factors that affect human decision making and quantifying their influence remain essential and challenging tasks for the design and implementation of social and technological communication systems. We report results of a behavioral experiment involving decision making in the face of an impending natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, we characterize individual and group evacuation decision making influenced by several key factors, including the likelihood of the disaster, available shelter capacity, group size, and group decision protocol. Our results show that success in individual decision making is not a strong predictor of group performance. We use an artificial neural network trained on the collective behavior of subjects to predict individual and group outcomes. Overall model accuracy increases with the inclusion of a subject-specific performance parameter based on laboratory trials that captures individual differences. In parallel, we demonstrate that the social media activit...

  11. City evacuations an interdisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Binner, Jane; Branicki, Layla; Galla, Tobias; Jones, Nick; King, James; Kolokitha, Magdalini; Smyrnakis, Michalis


    Evacuating a city is a complex problem that involves issues of governance, preparedness education, warning, information sharing, population dynamics, resilience and recovery. As natural and anthropogenic threats to cities grow, it is an increasingly pressing problem for policy makers and practitioners.   The book is the result of a unique interdisciplinary collaboration between researchers in the physical and social sciences to consider how an interdisciplinary approach can help plan for large scale evacuations.  It draws on perspectives from physics, mathematics, organisation theory, economics, sociology and education.  Importantly it goes beyond disciplinary boundaries and considers how interdisciplinary methods are necessary to approach a complex problem involving human actors and increasingly complex communications and transportation infrastructures.   Using real world case studies and modelling the book considers new approaches to evacuation dynamics.  It addresses questions of complexity, not only ...

  12. Pedestrian Evacuation Analysis for Tsunami Hazards (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Wood, N. J.


    Recent catastrophic tsunamis in the last decade, as well as the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Alaskan event, have heightened awareness of the threats these natural hazards present to large and increasing coastal populations. For communities located close to the earthquake epicenter that generated the tsunami, strong shaking may also cause significant infrastructure damage, impacting the road network and hampering evacuation. There may also be insufficient time between the earthquake and first wave arrival to rely on a coordinated evacuation, leaving at-risk populations to self-evacuate on foot and across the landscape. Emergency managers evaluating these coastal risks need tools to assess the evacuation potential of low-lying areas in order to discuss mitigation options, which may include vertical evacuation structures to provide local safe havens in vulnerable communities. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software tool for use by researchers and emergency managers to assist in the assessment of a community's evacuation potential by modeling travel times across the landscape and producing both maps of travel times and charts of population counts with corresponding times. The tool uses an anisotropic (directionally dependent) least cost distance model to estimate evacuation potential and allows for the variation of travel speed to measure its effect on travel time. The effectiveness of vertical evacuation structures on evacuation time can also be evaluated and compared with metrics such as travel time maps showing each structure in place and graphs displaying the percentage change in population exposure for each structure against the baseline. Using the tool, travel time maps and at-risk population counts have been generated for some coastal communities of the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The tool can also be used to provide valuable decision support for tsunami vertical evacuation siting.

  13. Profitability Variations of a Solar System with an Evacuated Tube Collector According to Schedules and Frequency of Hot Water Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos J. Porras-Prieto


    Full Text Available The use of solar water heating systems with evacuated tube collectors has been experiencing a rapid growth in recent years. Times when there is demand for hot water, the days of use and the volumes demanded may determine the profitability of these systems, even within the same city. Therefore, this paper characterizes the behavior of a solar system with active circulation with the objective of determining the profitability variations according to the timing and schedule of demand. Through a simplified methodology based on regression equations, calculated for each hour of the day based on data from an experimental facility, the useful energy is estimated from the time and frequency of the demand for hot water at 60 °C. The analysis of the potential profitability of the system in more than 1000 scenarios analyzed shows huge differences depending on the number of days when the water is demanded, the time when demand occurs, the irradiation and the average price of energy. In cities with high irradiation and high energy prices, the system could be profitable even in homes where it is used only on weekends. The study of profitability in a building of 10 homes shows that by applying an average European household’s profile for hot water demand, levels close to full potential would be reached; for this, it is necessary to optimize the collection surface.

  14. The peculiarities of formation of circulatory system pathology of evacuated adult population exposed to ionizing radiation on thyroid gland after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapustinskaia O.A.


    Full Text Available The aim of the research - analysis of the structure and dynamics of the morbidity among eva¬cuated population, the peculiarities of pathogenesis of the most widespread forms of circulatory system (CS pathology in the remote period after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Materials and methods. Three groups of persons evacuated from Chernobyl zone of alienation were researched: persons aged 10-17 (6517 persons, 18-39 (496 persons, 40-60 (458 persons. The data on the individual radiation doses which affected thyroid gland were selected at the State Register of Ukraine on persons affected by the Chernobyl disaster. Morbidity rate was estimated per 103 man-year for 5-years periods of monitoring. The main results: Time from the moment of Chernobyl accident affected the formation of morbidity structure of evacuated population. It was fixed two peaks of morbidity incidence - initial and in 12 years. The most essential changes in CS morbidity of evacuated population were fixed 26 years later mainly in cere¬brovascular diseases. The coronary artery disease takes the first place in the morbidity structure. Significant dif¬ferences were detected at age-specific aspect. The evacuated adult population aged 18-39 years was the most vulnerable for the development of CS diseases. Adverse health effects confirmed the necessity of further research of CS morbidity with the differentiation of doses affected thyroid gland.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karthik, Rajasekar [ORNL; Lu, Wei [ORNL


    Critical infrastructure disruption, caused by severe weather events, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc., has significant impacts on urban transportation systems. We built a computational framework to simulate urban transportation systems under critical infrastructure disruption in order to aid real-time emergency evacuation. This framework will use large scale datasets to provide a scalable tool for emergency planning and management. Our framework, World-Wide Emergency Evacuation (WWEE), integrates population distribution and urban infrastructure networks to model travel demand in emergency situations at global level. Also, a computational model of agent-based traffic simulation is used to provide an optimal evacuation plan for traffic operation purpose [1]. In addition, our framework provides a web-based high resolution visualization tool for emergency evacuation modelers and practitioners. We have successfully tested our framework with scenarios in both United States (Alexandria, VA) and Europe (Berlin, Germany) [2]. However, there are still some major drawbacks for scaling this framework to handle big data workloads in real time. On our back-end, lack of proper infrastructure limits us in ability to process large amounts of data, run the simulation efficiently and quickly, and provide fast retrieval and serving of data. On the front-end, the visualization performance of microscopic evacuation results is still not efficient enough due to high volume data communication between server and client. We are addressing these drawbacks by using cloud computing and next-generation web technologies, namely Node.js, NoSQL, WebGL, Open Layers 3 and HTML5 technologies. We will describe briefly about each one and how we are using and leveraging these technologies to provide an efficient tool for emergency management organizations. Our early experimentation demonstrates that using above technologies is a promising approach to build a scalable and high performance urban

  16. "Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster – Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Taubenböck


    Full Text Available Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.

  17. Tsunami evacuation simulation considering differences in evacuation means depending on the household attribute (United States)

    Sugiki, Nao; Hirata, Yoshiki; Matsuo, Kojiro


    Large scale earthquakes occur frequently in Japan in recent years. In the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011 and caused major damage, more than 90% of the dead were due to the tsunami. The speed of evacuation is important in considering evacuation at the time of the attack of the tsunami, especially the elderly evacuation speed is assumed to be slower than non-elderly people. Elderly people may have different means of evacuation and speed depending on the composition of the households to which they belong because of the different possibilities of riding in families' driven cars. However, a simulation taking such a difference of evacuation into consideration has not been conducted. The purpose of this study is to conduct a tsunami evacuation simulation in consideration of evacuation measures and speed depending on the type of households belonging to in the tsunami inundation area of Toyohashi city, Japan. In order to conduct the tsunami evacuation simulation considering the household type, detailed data on individual households is necessary. However, it is difficult to obtain from aggregated data such as National Census. Therefore, detailed data on individual households is created by using the household micro data estimation system developed by Sugiki et al. [1]. Evacuation simulation is performed by shortest path search using Esri's ArcGIS Network Analyst's OD cost matrix analysis. The elderly people who cannot complete evacuation by the time of the arrival of the tsunami were found from evacuation simulation results assuming evacuation measures available for each household attribute to which the evacuees belong.

  18. Variations in population exposure and evacuation potential to multiple tsunami evacuation phases on Alameda and Bay Farm Islands, California (United States)

    Peters, J.


    Planning for a tsunami evacuation is challenging for California communities due to the variety of earthquake sources that could generate a tsunami. A maximum tsunami inundation zone is currently the basis for all tsunami evacuations in California, although an Evacuation Playbook consisting of specific event-based evacuation phases relating to flooding severity is in development. We chose to investigate the Evacuation Playbook approach for the island community of Alameda, CA since past reports estimated a significant difference in numbers of residents in the maximum inundation zone when compared to an event-based inundation zone. In order to recognize variations in the types of residents and businesses within each phase, a population exposure analysis was conducted for each of the four Alameda evacuation phases. A pedestrian evacuation analysis using an anisotropic, path distance model was also conducted to understand the time it would take for populations to reach high ground by foot. Initial results suggest that the two islands of the City of Alameda have different situations when it comes to the four tsunami evacuation phases. Pedestrian evacuation results suggest that Bay Farm Island would have more success evacuating by vehicle due to limited nearby high ground for pedestrians to reach safety. Therefore, agent-based traffic simulation software was used to model vehicle evacuation off Bay Farm Island. Initial results show that Alameda Island could face challenges evacuating numerous boat docks and a large beach for phases 1 and 2, whereas Bay Farm Island is unaffected at these phases but might be challenged with evacuating by vehicle for phases 3 and maximum due to congestion on limited egress routes. A better understanding of the population exposure within each tsunami Evacuation Playbook phase and the time it would take to evacuate out of each phase by foot or vehicle will help emergency managers implement the evacuation phases during an actual tsunami event.

  19. The sizes of Flat Plate and Evacuated Tube Collectors with Heat Pipe area as a function of the share of solar system in the heat demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olek Małgorzata


    Full Text Available The popularity of solar collectors in Poland is still increasing. The correct location of the collectors and a relatively high density of solar radiation allow delivering heat even in spite of relatively low ambient temperature. Moreover, solar systems used for heating domestic heat water (DHW in summer allow nearly complete elimination of conventional energy sources (e.g. gas, coal. That is why more and more house owners in Poland decide to install solar system installations. In Poland the most common types of solar collectors are flat plate collectors (FPC and evacuated tube collectors with heat pipe (ETCHP; both were selected for the analysis. The heat demand related to the preparation of hot water, connected with the size of solar collectors’ area, has been determined. The analysis includes FPC and ETCHP and heat demand of less than 10 000 kWh/year. Simulations were performed with the Matlab software and using data from a typical meteorological year (TMY. In addition, a 126–year period of measurements of insolation for Krakow has been taken into account. The HDKR model (Hay, Davis, Klucher, Reindl was used for the calculation of solar radiation on the absorber surface. The monthly medium temperature of the absorber depends on the amount of solar system heat and on the heat demand. All the previously mentioned data were used to determine solar efficiency. Due to the fact that solar efficiency and solar system heat are connected, the calculations were made with the use of an iterative method. Additionally, the upper limit for monthly useful solar system heat is resulted from the heat demand and thus the authors prepared a model of statistical solar system heat deviations based on the Monte Carlo method. It has been found that an increase in the useful solar system heat in reference to the heat demand is associated with more than proportional increase in the sizes of the analyzed surfaces of solar collector types.

  20. Prototype development and demonstration for response, emergency staging, communications, uniform management, and evacuation (R.E.S.C.U.M.E.) : R.E.S.C.U.M.E. prototype system design document. (United States)


    This report documents the System Design Document (SDD) for the prototype development and demonstration of the : Response, Emergency Staging, Communications, Uniform Management, and Evacuation (R.E.S.C.U.M.E.) application : bundle, with a focus on the...

  1. A robust optimization model for distribution and evacuation in the disaster response phase


    Fereiduni, Meysam; Shahanaghi, Kamran


    Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, affect thousands of people and can cause enormous financial loss. Therefore, an efficient response immediately following a natural disaster is vital to minimize the aforementioned negative effects. This research paper presents a network design model for humanitarian logistics which will assist in location and allocation decisions for multiple disaster periods. At first, a single-objective optimization model is presented that addresses the response phase...

  2. Study on Earthquake Emergency Evacuation Drill Trainer Development (United States)

    ChangJiang, L.


    With the improvement of China's urbanization, to ensure people survive the earthquake needs scientific routine emergency evacuation drills. Drawing on cellular automaton, shortest path algorithm and collision avoidance, we designed a model of earthquake emergency evacuation drill for school scenes. Based on this model, we made simulation software for earthquake emergency evacuation drill. The software is able to perform the simulation of earthquake emergency evacuation drill by building spatial structural model and selecting the information of people's location grounds on actual conditions of constructions. Based on the data of simulation, we can operate drilling in the same building. RFID technology could be used here for drill data collection which read personal information and send it to the evacuation simulation software via WIFI. Then the simulation software would contrast simulative data with the information of actual evacuation process, such as evacuation time, evacuation path, congestion nodes and so on. In the end, it would provide a contrastive analysis report to report assessment result and optimum proposal. We hope the earthquake emergency evacuation drill software and trainer can provide overall process disposal concept for earthquake emergency evacuation drill in assembly occupancies. The trainer can make the earthquake emergency evacuation more orderly, efficient, reasonable and scientific to fulfill the increase in coping capacity of urban hazard.

  3. Evacuation of Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run

    where needed, not leaving a boundary layer as the theory for adults suggests. Handrails were frequently used by both age groups in the daycare centers, more when walking on their own than when assisted. It was found that children using a low handrail achieved on average a 23.5% higher travel speed than......’s evacuation which is reflected in a rising number of publications on the topic. This thesis comprises evacuation experiments in daycares for children 0-6 years old and elementary schools for children aged 6-15 years. Full scale evacuations were filmed allowing detailed data analysis. Findings and results...

  4. Development of a mechanics-based model of brain deformations during intracerebral hemorrhage evacuation (United States)

    Narasimhan, Saramati; Weis, Jared A.; Godage, Isuru S.; Webster, Robert; Weaver, Kyle; Miga, Michael I.


    Intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs) occur in 24 out of 100,000 people annually and have high morbidity and mortality rates. The standard treatment is conservative. We hypothesize that a patient-specific, mechanical model coupled with a robotic steerable needle, used to aspirate a hematoma, would result in a minimally invasive approach to ICH management that will improve outcomes. As a preliminary study, three realizations of a tissue aspiration framework are explored within the context of a biphasic finite element model based on Biot's consolidation theory. Short-term transient effects were neglected in favor of steady state formulation. The Galerkin Method of Weighted Residuals was used to solve coupled partial differential equations using linear basis functions, and assumptions of plane strain and homogeneous isotropic properties. All aspiration models began with the application of aspiration pressure sink(s), calculated pressures and displacements, and the use of von Mises stresses within a tissue failure criterion. With respect to aspiration strategies, one model employs an element-deletion strategy followed by aspiration redeployment on the remaining grid, while the other approaches use principles of superposition on a fixed grid. While the element-deletion approach had some intuitive appeal, without incorporating a dynamic grid strategy, it evolved into a less realistic result. The superposition strategy overcame this, but would require empirical investigations to determine the optimum distribution of aspiration sinks to match material removal. While each modeling framework demonstrated some promise, the superposition method's ease of computation, ability to incorporate the surgical plan, and better similarity to existing empirical observational data, makes it favorable.

  5. An agent-based evacuation model with social contagion mechanisms and cultural factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wal, C. Natalie; Formolo, Daniel; Bosse, Tibor


    © Springer International Publishing AG 2017. A fire incident at a transport hub can cost many lives. To save lives, effective crisis management and prevention measures need to be taken. In this project, the effect of cultural factors in managing and preventing emergencies in public transport systems

  6. Collective Decision Dynamics in Group Evacuation: Modeling Tradeoffs and Optimal Behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Ali, Imtiaz; Carlson, Jean M


    Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and guiding the development of new technologies. However, modeling and predicting such behavior is notoriously difficult, due to the influence of a variety of complex factors such as the availability and uncertainty of information, the interaction and influence of social groups and networks, the degree of risk or time pressure involved in a situation, and differences in individual personalities and preferences. Here, we develop a stochastic model of human decision making to describe the empirical behavior of subjects in a controlled experiment simulating a natural disaster scenario. We compare the observed behavior to that of statistically optimal Bayesian decision makers, quantifying the extent to which human decisions are optimal and identifying the conditions in which sub-optimal ...

  7. Tsunami evacuation buildings and evacuation planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia. (United States)

    Yuzal, Hendri; Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    Indonesia, a country of more than 17,000 islands, is exposed to many hazards. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. It triggered a series of tsunami waves that spread across the Indian Ocean causing damage in 11 countries. Banda Aceh, the capital city of Aceh Province, was among the most damaged. More than 31,000 people were killed. At the time, there were no early warning systems nor evacuation buildings that could provide safe refuge for residents. Since then, four tsunami evacuation buildings (TEBs) have been constructed in the Meuraxa subdistrict of Banda Aceh. Based on analysis of evacuation routes and travel times, the capacity of existing TEBs is examined. Existing TEBs would not be able to shelter all of the at-risk population. In this study, additional buildings and locations for TEBs are proposed and residents are assigned to the closest TEBs. While TEBs may be part of a larger system of tsunami mitigation efforts, other strategies and approaches need to be considered. In addition to TEBs, robust detection, warning and alert systems, land use planning, training, exercises, and other preparedness strategies are essential to tsunami risk reduction.

  8. An indoor augmented reality mobile application for simulation of building evacuation (United States)

    Sharma, Sharad; Jerripothula, Shanmukha


    Augmented Reality enables people to remain connected with the physical environment they are in, and invites them to look at the world from new and alternative perspectives. There has been an increasing interest in emergency evacuation applications for mobile devices. Nearly all the smart phones these days are Wi-Fi and GPS enabled. In this paper, we propose a novel emergency evacuation system that will help people to safely evacuate a building in case of an emergency situation. It will further enhance knowledge and understanding of where the exits are in the building and safety evacuation procedures. We have applied mobile augmented reality (mobile AR) to create an application with Unity 3D gaming engine. We show how the mobile AR application is able to display a 3D model of the building and animation of people evacuation using markers and web camera. The system gives a visual representation of a building in 3D space, allowing people to see where exits are in the building through the use of a smart phone or tablets. Pilot studies were conducted with the system showing its partial success and demonstrated the effectiveness of the application in emergency evacuation. Our computer vision methods give good results when the markers are closer to the camera, but accuracy decreases when the markers are far away from the camera.

  9. Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Sun


    Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

  10. Dual effects of guide-based guidance on pedestrian evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Yi, E-mail:; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng


    This study investigates the effects of guide-based guidance on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility via the simulations based on an extended social force model. The results show that the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual, and related to the neighbor density within the visual field. On the one hand, in many cases, the effects of guides are positive, particularly when the neighbor density within the visual field is moderate; in this case, a few guides can already assist the evacuation effectively and efficiently. However, when the neighbor density within the visual field is particularly small or large, the effects of guides may be adverse and make the evacuation time longer. Our results not only provide a new insight into the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility, but also give some practical suggestions as to how to assign guides to assist the evacuation under different evacuation conditions. - Highlights: • Extended social force model is used to simulate guided pedestrian evacuation. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are related to neighbor density within visual field.

  11. A gastric evacuation model for three predatory gadoids and implications of using pooled field data of stomach contents to estimate food rations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner


    evacuation rate was related by a negative power function to energy density of fish prey,) er an extended range from 3(.)4 to 11(.)5 kJ g (1) of the effector variable. Gastric evacuation of crustacean prey seemed to depend on the characteristics of their exoskeleton, Gastric evacuation of mixed meal, composed...

  12. Evacuation routes performances and fire safety of buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laban Mirjana Đ.


    Full Text Available Residential buildings, public and business facilities with large number of occupants are particularly exposed to the risk of event with catastrophic consequences, especially in case of fire. Evacuation routes must be separated fire compartments with surfaces made of non-combustible materials. Safe evacuation of building occupants in case of fire is a crucial requirement for the preservation of human life in building. In our engineering practice, calculation model is usually applied in order to determine the time required for evacuation (SRPS TP 21. However, evacuation simulation models are more present in research papers, contributing to better assessment of flow of evacuation in the real time. These models could provide an efficient way of testing the safety of a building in the face of fire and indicate critical points at the evacuation paths. Computer models enable the development and analysis of multiple various scenarios during a fire event, contributing to defining the measures for improving the safety of the building in case of fire. This paper analyses the fulfilment of technical requirements for the safe evacuation and proposes improvement measures based on a comparative analysis of the time required for occupants' evacuation from the building (Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy in Novi Sad, obtained by calculation model and by using evacuation simulation software.

  13. Minimally Invasive Surgery for Evacuating the Intracerebral Hematoma in Early Stages Decreased Secondary Damages to the Internal Capsule in Dog Model of ICH Observed by Diffusion Tensor Imaging. (United States)

    Wu, Guofeng; Wang, Fan; Wang, Likun; Shi, Jing; Yu, Hui; Zhang, Yingjun


    Diffusion tensor imaging was used to observe the effects of performing early minimally invasive surgery (MIS) on internal capsule in dog model of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Twenty-five male dogs were selected to prepare an ICH model, and then they were randomly distributed into a model control (MC) group (5 dogs) or an MIS group (20 dogs). In the MIS group, the intracerebral hematoma was evacuated by stereotactic minimally invasive procedures over 6 hours (5 dogs), 12 hours (5 dogs), 18 hours (5 dogs), or 24 hours (5 dogs) after successful induction of ICH. The same procedure was performed in the MC group but without evacuating the hematoma. All the animals were sacrificed within 2 weeks after the hematoma was surgically evacuated. The neurologic deficit score and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) were observed before and after the MIS. The perihematomal blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeability and the brain water content (BWC) were measured 2 weeks after the hematoma was surgically evacuated. The DTI demonstrated that integrity of the internal capsule restored largely after surgery and the fractional anisotropy (FA) values of the internal capsule on the hematoma side increased significantly as compared with those in the MC group or those before surgery in the same group. The postoperative ratios of FA values of each MIS subgroup increased compared with the MC group and those before surgery in the same subgroup before operation. The neurologic deficit score, the perihematomal BBB permeability, and the BWC of each MIS subgroup decreased significantly compared with those of the MC group. The 6-12-hour group displayed a more favorable result. Performing the MIS in the early stage (6-12 hours) after ICH could decrease the secondary damages to the internal capsule so as to promote the recovery of motor function. The optimal time window for MIS should be within 6-12 hours after onset of ICH. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Evacuation under limited visibility (United States)

    Frank, Guillermo A.; Dorso, Claudio O.


    A multiplicity of situations can trigger off an evacuation of a room under panic conditions. For "normal" (with "normal" meaning absence of obstacles, perfect visibility, etc.) environmental conditions, the "faster is slower" effect dominates the dynamics of this process. It states that as the pedestrians desire to reach the exit increases, the clogging phenomena delays the time to get out of the room. But, environmental conditions are usually far from "normal." In this work, we consider that pedestrians have to find their way out under low visibility conditions. Some of them might switch to a herding-like behavior if they do not remember where the exit was. Others will just trust on their memory. Our investigation handles the herding and memory effects on the evacuation of a single exit room with no obstacles. We also include a section on how signaling devices affect the evacuation process. Unexpectedly, some low visibility situations may enhance the evacuation performance. This can be resumed as a second paradoxical result, since we demonstrated in an earlier investigation that "clever is not always better" G. A. Frank and C. O. Dorso, Physica A 390, 2135 (2011).

  15. Evacuation and Community Shelters (United States)

    ... solution − Emergency preparedness kit − Clothing and bedding − Car keys If local officials haven’t advised an immediate evacuation, take these steps to protect your home before you leave: − Turn off electricity at the main fuse or breaker and turn ...

  16. Evacuation performance evaluation tool. (United States)

    Farra, Sharon; Miller, Elaine T; Gneuhs, Matthew; Timm, Nathan; Li, Gengxin; Simon, Ashley; Brady, Whittney


    Hospitals conduct evacuation exercises to improve performance during emergency events. An essential aspect in this process is the creation of reliable and valid evaluation tools. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implications of a disaster evacuation performance tool that measures one portion of the very complex process of evacuation. Through the application of the Delphi technique and DeVellis's framework, disaster and neonatal experts provided input in developing this performance evaluation tool. Following development, content validity and reliability of this tool were assessed. Large pediatric hospital and medical center in the Midwest. The tool was pilot tested with an administrative, medical, and nursing leadership group and then implemented with a group of 68 healthcare workers during a disaster exercise of a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The tool has demonstrated high content validity with a scale validity index of 0.979 and inter-rater reliability G coefficient (0.984, 95% CI: 0.948-0.9952). The Delphi process based on the conceptual framework of DeVellis yielded a psychometrically sound evacuation performance evaluation tool for a NICU.

  17. An adaptive simulation tool for evacuation scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Formolo, Daniel; van der Wal, C. Natalie


    Building useful and efficient models and tools for a varied audience, such as evacuation simulators for scientists, engineers and crisis managers, can be tricky. Even good models can fail in providing information when the user’s tools for the model are scarce of resources. The aim of this work is to

  18. Hyperbolic scaling and computing in social crowds: Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al. (United States)

    Outada, Nisrine


    I have read with great interest the paper [5] where the authors present an overview and critical analysis of the literature on the modeling of the crowd dynamics with special attention to evacuation dynamics. The approach developed is based on suitable development of methods of the kinetic theory. Interactions, which lead to the decision choice, are modeled by theoretical tools of stochastic evolutionary game theory [11,12]. However, the paper [5] provides not only a survey focused on topics of great interest for our society, but also it looks ahead to a variety of interesting and challenging mathematical problems. Specifically, I am interested in the derivation of macroscopic (hydrodynamic) models from the underlying description given from the kinetic theory approach, more specifically by the kinetic theory for active particles [8]. A general reference on crowd modeling is the recently published book [10].

  19. Multiobjective Optimization of Evacuation Routes in Stadium Using Superposed Potential Field Network Based ACO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jialiang Kou


    Full Text Available Multiobjective evacuation routes optimization problem is defined to find out optimal evacuation routes for a group of evacuees under multiple evacuation objectives. For improving the evacuation efficiency, we abstracted the evacuation zone as a superposed potential field network (SPFN, and we presented SPFN-based ACO algorithm (SPFN-ACO to solve this problem based on the proposed model. In Wuhan Sports Center case, we compared SPFN-ACO algorithm with HMERP-ACO algorithm and traditional ACO algorithm under three evacuation objectives, namely, total evacuation time, total evacuation route length, and cumulative congestion degree. The experimental results show that SPFN-ACO algorithm has a better performance while comparing with HMERP-ACO algorithm and traditional ACO algorithm for solving multi-objective evacuation routes optimization problem.

  20. Behavior-based evacuation planning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel


    In this work, we present a formulation of an evacuation planning problem that is inspired by motion planning and describe an integrated behavioral agent-based and roadmap-based motion planning approach to solve it. Our formulation allows users to test the effect on evacuation of a number of different environmental factors. One of our main focuses is to provide a mechanism to investigate how the interaction between agents influences the resulting evacuation plans. Specifically, we explore how various types of control provided by a set of directing agents effects the overall evacuation planning strategies of the evacuating agents. ©2010 IEEE.

  1. Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong


    Knowing the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation and having an efficient evacuation plan play a very important role in the serious disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and hurricane. In this paper, the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation in a densely populated area of Beijing was studied with consideration of different influencing factors. Firstly, the eight influencing factors including road width, node degree, safety betweenness, road resistor coefficient, building threat, pedestrian counterflow, illegal vehicle parking and traffic flow were considered to assess the road risk for pedestrian evacuation. Secondly, based on complex network theory, electric circuit theory and real situation of the roads, the comprehensive assessment function for road risk was developed quantitatively based on the eight influencing factors. Thirdly, we analyzed road risk for pedestrian evacuation considering different situations: current condition, regular condition, and optimal condition; the risk distribution maps were drawn to directly show the risk level. Through assessments, the roads with high risk for pedestrian evacuation were found, and an optimized evacuation plan was obtained and analyzed. This mathematical model can guide the emergency evacuation in real time. The process and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of evacuations which should considerably reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in the disaster.

  2. Study on rapid evacuation in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Zhang


    Full Text Available More and more high rising buildings emerged in modern cities, but emergency evacuation of tall buildings has been a worldwide difficult problem. In this paper, a new evacuation device for high rising buildings in fire accident was proposed and studied. This device mainly consisted of special spiral slideway and shunt valve. People in this device could fast slide down to the first floor under gravity without any electric power and physical strength, which is suitable for various emergency evacuation including mobility-impaired persons. The plane simulation test has shown that human being in alternative clockwise and counterclockwise movement will not become dizzy. The evacuated people should wear protection pad, which can prevent slider from being injured by surface friction with the slide, and eliminate the friction coefficient difference caused by different clothes and slide surface. The calculation results show that the evacuation speed of the new device is much faster than traditional staircases. Moreover, such new evacuation device can also be used as a means of vertical transportation in high-rise buildings partly. People can take it from any floor to ground floor directly, which not only save time for waiting for the lifts but also save the power. The new evacuation system is of simple structure, easy to use, and suitable for evacuation and partly used as vertical downwards traffic, which shows light on solving world-wide difficulties on fast evacuation in high-rise buildings.

  3. Is ward evacuation for uncomplicated incomplete abortion under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To compare evacuation under systemic analgesia (fentanyl and midazolam) in a treatment room (ward group) with evacuation under general anaesthesia in theatre. Design. A prospective randomised clinical trial. Setting. A tertiary medical centre serving a black urban population. Subjects. One hundred and ...

  4. WILLEM : a Wireless InteLLigent Evacuation Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willigen, W.H. van; Neef, R.M.; Lieburg, A. van; Schut, M.C.


    In this paper we present WILLEM, a system for dynamic evacuation routing in buildings, using a wireless sensor network. Dynamic evacuation routing is the process of dynamically determining the fastest routes to the exits. The routes may be changed in case a fire occurs somewhere. We also present an

  5. Evacuation Preparedness in the Event of Fire in Intensive Care Units in Sweden: More is Needed. (United States)

    Löfqvist, Erika; Oskarsson, Åsa; Brändström, Helge; Vuorio, Alpo; Haney, Michael


    Introduction Hospitals, including intensive care units (ICUs), can be subject to threat from fire and require urgent evacuation. Hypothesis The hypothesis was that the current preparedness for ICU evacuation for fire in the national public hospital system in a wealthy country was very good, using Sweden as model. An already validated questionnaire for this purpose was adapted to national/local circumstances and translated into Swedish. It aimed to elicit information concerning fire response planning, personnel education, training, and exercises. Questionnaire results (yes/no answers) were collected and answers collated to assess grouped responses. Frequencies of responses were determined. While a written hospital plan for fire response and evacuation was noted by all responders, personnel familiarity with the plan was less frequent. Deficiencies were reported concerning all categories: lack of written fire response plan for ICU, lack of personnel education in this, and lack of practical exercises to practice urgent evacuation in the event of fire. These findings were interpreted as an indication of risk for worse consequences for patients in the event of fire and ICU evacuation among the hospitals in the country that was assessed, despite clear regulations and requirements for these. The exact reasons for this lack of compliance with existing laws was not clear, though there are many possible explanations. To remedy this, more attention is needed concerning recognizing risk related to lack of preparedness. Where there exists a goal of high-quality work in the ICU, this should include general leadership and medical staff preparedness in the event of urgent ICU evacuation. Löfqvist E , Oskarsson A , Brändström H , Vuorio A , Haney M . Evacuation preparedness in the event of fire in intensive care units in Sweden: more is needed. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(3):317-320.

  6. "Denial or Faith?" Therapy versus Messianism in Preparing for the Evacuation of Israeli Settlements (United States)

    Amrami, Galia Plotkin


    This article offers an ethnographic account of the professional activities of mental health practitioners, employed by the state's religious education system. I analyze various models implemented by practitioners for the purposes of preparing pupils for the state-mandated evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza and the West Bank. By focusing on…

  7. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts


    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  8. Effect of authority figures for pedestrian evacuation at metro stations (United States)

    Song, Xiao; Zhang, Zenghui; Peng, Gongzhuang; Shi, Guoqiang


    Most pedestrian evacuation literatures are about routing algorithm, human intelligence and behavior etc. Few works studied how to fully explore the function of authority/security figures, who know more of the environment by simply being there every day. To evaluate the effect of authority figure (AF) in complex buildings, this paper fully investigates the AF related factors that may influence the evacuation effect of crowd, such as the number and locations of AFs, their spread of direction, calming effect and distribution strategies etc. Social force based modeling and simulation results show that these factors of AFs play important roles in evacuation efficiency, which means fewer AFs with right guiding strategy can have good evacuation performance. For our case study, Zhichun Avenue station, the conclusion is that deployment of four AFs is a good choice to achieve relatively high evacuation performance yet save cost.

  9. Evacuation from a Complex Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Janne Gress; Dederichs, Anne


    How is the total evacuation time of a mixed population and its subgroups predicted by the evacuation tool STEPS? Simulation using STEPS is compared with experimental data and evaluated based on individual total egress times. It was found that the total egress times were similar for the simulation...

  10. Ventilation Criteria for Aeromedical Evacuation. (United States)


    number) FIELD GROUP i SUB-GROUP Aeromedical evacuation; Ventilatory requirements; 06 11 06 12 iAir evacuation; and Mechanical ventilation . 19...ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) -., fr evacLation of patients requiring mechanical ventilation exposes these...reasonably stable from a medical standpoint; none required mechanical ventilation . Unfortunately, we find no .- , studies that describe the

  11. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012

    CERN Document Server

    Kirsch, Uwe; Schreckenberg, Michael


    The 6th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics conference (PED2012) showcased research on human locomotion. This book presents the proceedings of PED2012. Humans have walked for eons; our drive to settle the globe began with a walk out of Africa. However, much remains to discover. As the world moves toward sustainability while racing to assess and accommodate climate change, research must provide insight on the physical requirements of walking, the dynamics of pedestrians on the move and more. We must understand, predict and simulate pedestrian behaviour, to avoid dangerous situations, to plan for emergencies, and not least, to make walking more attractive and enjoyable. PED2012 offered 70 presentations and keynotes and 70 poster presentations covering new and improved mathematical models, describing new insights on pedestrian behaviour in normal and emergency cases and presenting research based on sensors and advanced observation methods. These papers offer a starting point for innova...

  12. Agent-based simulation of alternative classroom evacuation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runjiao Liu


    Full Text Available Due to the growing number of emergency accidents occurring around students, evacuation issues have become significantly important for both school officials and architects. Simply following construction codes cannot ensure that a building׳s layout is suitable for evacuation behaviors; therefore, to discover the suitable planning schemes, we have introduced an agent-based simulation model via Netlogo to investigate the interrelationships between evacuation efficiency and classroom layouts. Before conducting modeling experiments, both the simulation structure and the sensitivity to its parameter settings are examined by validation research and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, to demonstrate the importance of conducting fire drills with students, two different types of behavior rules are designed to reflect the distinctive characteristics of students evacuating without instructions and students evacuating in good order. The general comparison results show us that the classroom layout with two exits shortens students׳ evacuation time, and the premeditated behavior rules, meaning that students who follow preset instructions to arrange their activities, not only escape faster but also have some advantages in ensuring their safety during the evacuation process. Moreover, at the end of this paper, several methods of improving this simulation model are proposed for more complex research in the future.

  13. Effects of evacuation assistant’s leading behavior on the evacuation efficiency: Information transmission approach (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Lu; Guo, Wei; Zheng, Xiao-Ping


    Evacuation assistants are expected to spread the escape route information and lead evacuees toward the exit as quickly as possible. Their leading behavior influences the evacuees’ movement directly, which is confirmed to be a decisive factor of the evacuation efficiency. The transmission process of escape information and its function on the evacuees’ movement are accurately presented by the proposed extended dynamic communication field model. For evacuation assistants and evacuees, their sensitivity parameter of static floor field (SFF), , and , are fully discussed. The simulation results indicate that the appropriate is associated with the maximum of evacuees. The optimal combinations of and were found to reach the highest evacuation efficiency. There also exists an optimal value for evacuation assistants’ information transmission radius. Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2011CB706900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71225007 and 71203006), the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2012BAK13B06), the Humanities and Social Sciences Project of the Ministry of Education of China (Grant Nos. 10YJA630221 and 12YJCZH023), and the Beijing Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, China (Grant Nos. 12JGC090 and 12JGC098).

  14. Theoretical and experimental investigation of Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin Qin; Furbo, S.


    For many years evacuated tubular collectors have been marketed in Europe and the USA. These solar collectors are typically designed on the basis of the heat-pipe principle. Recently a number of Chinese firms started mass production of relatively cheap evacuated tubular solar collectors. The firms produce differently designed evacuated tubular solar collectors, e.g. with different absorbers and glass tube diameters with or without reflectors. As opposed to Europe, in Asia evacuated tubular solar collectors have reached such a low price level and such a high efficiency that in certain types of solar heating systems it has become attractive to use these high-efficient solar collectors instead of ordinary flat-plate collectors. At present the suitability of Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors for different types of solar heating systems under Danish conditions are investigated at the Technical University of Denmark, DTU. The provisional results of these investigations, which are expected to be finished in the spring of 1999, are described in details in this document. The completed investigations indicate that the thermal performance of a small solar domestic hot water system can be improved if the evacuated tubular solar collector is used instead of a traditional flat-plate collector. However, the investigations indicate the price/performance-ratio of typical Danish small solar domestic hot water systems can not be improved by using evacuated tubular solar collectors instead of traditional flat-plate collector. Furthermore, the investigations indicate that it is not as important for the evacuated tubular solar collectors that the solar collectors are installed with `correct` orientation and tilt as it is for flat-plate collectors. The investigations also showed that it is an advantage for solar heating plants with high operation temperature to use high-efficient evacuated tubular solar collectors. (EHS)

  15. The effect of meal size on gastric evacuation in whiting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner


    Gastric evacuation experiments were performed on whiting Merlangius merlangus fed discrete meals of different sizes. Herring Clupea harengus, sandeel Ammodytes tobianus, common goby Pomatoschistus microps, and brown shrimp Crangon crangon were tested as prey. A simple power model to describe...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korol'chenko Aleksandr Yakovlevich


    Full Text Available The authors argue that no collapse of structures is likely in the event of a fire emergency in multistoried buildings, rather, other fire-related factors may endanger the lives of people inside high-rise buildings exposed to the fire emergency, including open fire, sparks, high ambient temperature, smoke and toxic combustion products, reduced concentration of oxygen, and combined influence of various factors. In case of fire, the temperature inside buildings reaches 1100 °С. It exceeds the temperature of the ambient air acceptable for humans by far (70 °С. The experiments demonstrate that combustion products contain hundreds of toxic chemical compounds. The most hazardous of them include carbon oxide, carbon dioxide, chloride and cyanic hydrogen, aldehydes and acrolein. The author provides the pattern of their influence on the human body. The smoke consists of unburned particles of carbon and aerosols. The size of particles fluctuates within 0.05-50 MMK. Smoke produces a physiological and psychological impact on human beings. It has been proven that dangerous fire factors emerge within the first five to ten minutes of the emergency situation. Evacuation is the principal method of safety assurance. However, the velocity of propagation of smoke and heat is so high that even if the fire prevention system is in operation, people may be blocked both on the floors that are exposed to the fire and those that escape its propagation. New evacuation and rescue methods are recommended by the author. Various ways and methods of use of life-saving facilities are also provided. Safe evacuation is feasible from buildings where the number of stories does not exceed 10- 12. During evacuation, high density human streams are formed inside buildings, therefore, the period of stay in a burning building is increased. The calculations have proven that a two-minute delay of evacuation converts into a safe evacuation of only 13-15% of people. Low reliability of

  17. The effects of meal size, body size and temperature on gastric evacuation in pikeperch

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koed, Anders


    Prey size had no effect on the gastric evacuation rate of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca. The gastric evacuation was adequately described applying an exponent of 0.5 in the power model. Applying length instead of weight of pikeperch in the gastric evacuation model resulted in a change of estim......Prey size had no effect on the gastric evacuation rate of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca. The gastric evacuation was adequately described applying an exponent of 0.5 in the power model. Applying length instead of weight of pikeperch in the gastric evacuation model resulted in a change...... of estimated parameters, in accordance with the weight-length relationship of pikeperch. (C) 2001 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles....

  18. Evacuating People and Their Pets: Older Floridians' Need for and Proximity to Pet-Friendly Shelters. (United States)

    Douglas, Rachel; Kocatepe, Ayberk; Barrett, Anne E; Ozguven, Eren Erman; Gumber, Clayton


    Pets influence evacuation decisions, but little is known about pet-friendly emergency shelters' availability or older adults' need for them. Our study addresses this issue, focusing on the most densely populated area of Florida (Miami-Dade)-the state with the oldest population and greatest hurricane susceptibility. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to identify the shortest paths to pet-friendly shelters, based on distance and congested and uncongested travel times-taking into account the older population's spatial distribution. Logistic regression models using the 2013 American Housing Survey's Disaster Planning Module examine anticipated shelter use as a function of pet ownership and requiring pet evacuation assistance. Thirty-four percent of older adults in the Miami-Dade area have pets-35% of whom report needing pet evacuation assistance. However, GIS accessibility measures show that travel time factors are likely to impede older adults' use of the area's few pet-friendly shelters. Logistic regression results reveal that pet owners are less likely to report anticipating shelter use; however, the opposite holds for pet owners reporting they would need help evacuating their pets-they anticipate using shelters. High pet shelter need coupled with low availability exacerbates older adults' heightened vulnerability during Florida's hurricane season.

  19. A Course in Hazardous Chemical Spills: Use of the CAMEO Air Dispersion Model to Predict Evacuation Distances. (United States)

    Kumar, Ashok; And Others


    Provides an overview of the Computer-Aided Management of Emergency Operations (CAMEO) model and its use in the classroom as a training tool in the "Hazardous Chemical Spills" course. Presents six problems illustrating classroom use of CAMEO. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  20. An Alternative Evacuation Framework to Improve Protective-action Strategies Following a Nuclear Power Accident: The Adaptive Protective Action Zone (United States)

    Hammond, Gregory D.

    Within the U.S. current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping with geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the population evacuated. However, should policy makers decide that the benefits of APAZs outweigh the costs of implementation, APAZ adoption by U.S. regulatory agencies should be accompanied by a revision to the nuclear-power plant emergency planning basis, and revisions to local nuclear power emergency response planning areas.

  1. Influences of potential predictor variables on gastric evacuation in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. feeding on fish prey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner


    The parameter values of a generic model of gastric evacuation were estimated from evacuation data on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua fed meals of four fish prey: herring Clupea harengus, sprat Sprattus sprattus, lesser sandeel Ammodytes tobianus and dab Limanda limanda. The effects on evacuation...

  2. A new way to estimate the evacuation time for people involved in a building fire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt


    A survey about evacuation models is given. The current available evacuation models based on hand calculations are tested during the survey. The objectives have been to analyze the existing hand calculating methods and thereby validate or may be, disqualify a model. The survey is based on comparis...

  3. A Study on Thermal Performance of a Novel All-Glass Evacuated Tube Solar Collector Manifold Header with an Inserted Tube

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichun Yang


    Full Text Available A novel all-glass evacuated tube collector manifold header with an inserted tube is proposed in this paper which makes water in all-glass evacuated solar collector tube be forced circulated to improve the performance of solar collector. And a dynamic numerical model was presented for the novel all-glass evacuated tube collector manifold header water heater system. Also, a test rig was built for model validation and comparison with traditional all-glass evacuated tube collector. The experiment results show that the efficiency of solar water heater with a novel collector manifold header is higher than traditional all-glass evacuated tube collector by about 5% and the heat transfer model of water heater system is valid. Based on the model, the relationship between the average temperature of water tank and inserted tube diameter (water mass flow has been studied. The results show that the optimized diameter of inserted tube is 32 mm for the inner glass with the diameter of 47 mm and the water flow mass should be less than 1.6 Kg/s.

  4. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  5. An optimization design for evacuation planning based on fuzzy credibility theory and genetic algorithm (United States)

    Zhang, D.; Zhang, W. Y.


    Evacuation planning is an important activity in disaster management. It has to be planned in advance due to the unpredictable occurrence of disasters. It is necessary that the evacuation plans are as close as possible to the real evacuation work. However, the evacuation plan is extremely challenging because of the inherent uncertainty of the required information. There is a kind of vehicle routing problem based on the public traffic evacuation. In this paper, the demand for each evacuation set point is a fuzzy number, and each routing selection of the point is based on the fuzzy credibility preference index. This paper proposes an approximate optimal solution for this problem by the genetic algorithm based on the fuzzy reliability theory. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an optimization model, and the experiment result shows that the algorithm is effective.

  6. Chemical Agents: Facts about Evacuation (United States)

    ... with Chronic Illnesses Glucose Monitoring at Evacuation Centers Dialysis Care After a Disaster Evacuees Keep It With You Drug and Medical Device Safety Immunizations Food & Water Safety and Hand Hygiene Clean Hands Save Lives Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Clinician Outreach and ...

  7. Effectiveness of Installation Aeromedical Evacuation (United States)


    Aeromedical Evacuation Approved by: , Thesis Committee Chair Jackie D. Kem, Ph.D , Member Larry J. Lust, M.S...David Brown, Lawrence V. Fulton, Robert Mitchell, Wayne Pollard, Mark Robinson , and Ronald Wilson. 2013. Analyzing the future of Army aeromedical

  8. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca


    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  9. IoT in Action: Design and Implementation of a Building Evacuation Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selahattin Gokceli


    Full Text Available With the development of sensor technologies, various application areas have emerged. The usage of these technologies and exploitation of recent improvements have clear benefits on building applications. Such use-cases can improve smart functions of buildings and can increase the end-user comfort. As a similar notion, building automation systems (BAS are smart systems that target to provide automated management of various control services and to improve resource usage efficiency. However, buildings generally contain hardware and control services from a diverse set of characteristics. The automated and central management of such functions can be challenging. In order to overcome such issues, an Emergency Evacuation Service is proposed for BAS, where requirements of such central management model are analyzed and model content and subservice definitions are prepared. A crucial scenario, which could be a necessity for future BAS, is defined and an approach for evacuation of people in the buildings at emergency situations is proposed. For real-life scenarios, the Evacuation Service is implemented by using a low-cost design, which is appropriate for Internet of Things (IoT based BAS applications. As demonstrated, the proposed service model can provide effective performance in real-life deployments.

  10. Modified Static Floor Field and Exit Choice for Pedestrian Evacuation (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Huang, Hai-Jun; Yong, Gui


    An improved floor field model is proposed to simulate the pedestrian evacuation behavior in a room with multiple exits by modifying the static floor field. The modified static floor field is determined additionally by two cognitive coefficients of exit width and congestion degree around the exits. The logit-based discrete choice principle is used to govern the initial exit selection strategy based on the modified static floor field in such a scenario that pedestrians are distributed in the room's specified zone. Simulation results show that the proposed model can better perform the evacuation process. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters are also presented.

  11. Integrated Baseline System (IBS) Version 2.0: Models guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Integrated Baseline System (IBS) is an emergency management planning and analysis tool being developed under the direction of the US Army Nuclear and Chemical Agency. This Models Guide summarizes the IBS use of several computer models for predicting the results of emergency situations. These include models for predicting dispersion/doses of airborne contaminants, traffic evacuation, explosion effects, heat radiation from a fire, and siren sound transmission. The guide references additional technical documentation on the models when such documentation is available from other sources. The audience for this manual is chiefly emergency management planners and analysts, but also data managers and system managers.

  12. Evacuation research: A reassessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.


    During the 1985 review of several plants technical specifications the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff found that the protection system designs of some plants did not provide as complete a degree of online (at power) protection system surveillance testing capability as other plants undergoing staff review and evaluation at that time. This raised questions about the online testability of protection systems and the possibility that some nuclear power plant designs may not provide for complete online testing of their protection systems. Therefore, Generic Safety Issue (GSI)-120, ``Online Testability of Protection Systems`` was initiated. Project scope was limited to the Engineered Safety Features (ESFs) instrumentation and control testing. The major issue of concern relative to the resolution of GSI-120 deals with those ESF systems/components that cannot be tested during power operation, as actuating these systems/components could result in unwanted plant transient or trip conditions. These systems/components are tested during shutdown conditions. This report provides analysis and evaluation findings based on the review of selected issues necessary for the resolution of GSI-120. It also provides recommendations to close out GSI-120 and that no new requirements be placed on licensees of commercial light water nuclear power plants.

  13. Evacuation research: A reassessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.


    During the 1985 review of several plants technical specifications the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff found that the protection system designs of some plants did not provide as complete a degree of online (at power) protection system surveillance testing capability as other plants undergoing staff review and evaluation at that time. This raised questions about the online testability of protection systems and the possibility that some nuclear power plant designs may not provide for complete online testing of their protection systems. Therefore, Generic Safety Issue (GSI)-120, Online Testability of Protection Systems'' was initiated. Project scope was limited to the Engineered Safety Features (ESFs) instrumentation and control testing. The major issue of concern relative to the resolution of GSI-120 deals with those ESF systems/components that cannot be tested during power operation, as actuating these systems/components could result in unwanted plant transient or trip conditions. These systems/components are tested during shutdown conditions. This report provides analysis and evaluation findings based on the review of selected issues necessary for the resolution of GSI-120. It also provides recommendations to close out GSI-120 and that no new requirements be placed on licensees of commercial light water nuclear power plants.

  14. Comparative Analysis and Pedestrian Simulation Evaluation on Emergency Evacuation Test Methods for Urban Rail Transit Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zijia Wang


    Full Text Available The emergency evacuation test method of rail transit station not only affects the operation safety of the station, but it also has significant influence on the scale and cost of the station. A reasonable test method should guarantee both the safety of evacuation and that the investment is neither excessive nor too conservative. The paper compares and analyzes the differences of the existing emergency evacuation test methods of rail stations in China and other regions on the evacuation load, evacuation time calculation and the capacity of egress components, etc. Based on the field survey analysis, the desired velocity distribution of pedestrians in various station facilities and the capacity of egress components have been obtained, and then the parameters of pedestrian simulation tool were calibrated. By selecting a station for the case study, an evacuation simulation model has been established, where five evacuation scenarios have been set according to different specifications and the simulation results have been carefully analyzed. Through analyzing the simulation results, some modification proposals of the current emergency evacuation test method in the design manual have been considered, including taking into account the section passenger volume, walking time on escalators and stairs of the platform, and the condition in which the escalator most critical to evacuation should be considered as out of service.

  15. Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion (United States)

    Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastián; Kuperman, Marcelo N.


    Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.

  16. Kinetic models for crowd dynamics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by N. Bellomo et al. (United States)

    Banasiak, J.


    There has been a hierarchy of models of crowd behaviour. One can consider the crowd at the so called microscopic level, as a collection of individuals, and derive its description in the form of a (large) system of ordinary differential equations describing the position and velocity of each individual, in parallel to the Newton's description of matter, see e.g. [10]. Another possibility is to describe crowd, in analogy to fluid dynamics, by providing its density and velocity at a given point, see e.g. [11,12]. At the same time, it is recognized that crowd is 'living, social' system that is prone to exhibit rare, not easily predictable, behaviour in response to stress induced by the perception of danger, or of the action of specific agents, see e.g. [1,2]. This high probability of the occurrence of events that are far from average, makes the crowd behaviour similar to the processes with fat-tailed distribution of events. Such unlikely events have been metaphorically termed black swans in [14], or Lévy flights in [13]. While microscopic and macroscopic models can capture many features of crowd dynamics, including obstacles, see [3,8], such models are described by differential equations that inherently are local in space. At the same time, black swan events are often caused by non-local interactions such as self-organization, learning or adherence to some averaged group behaviour. It is known that such interactions are well described by mean field models best represented by integro-differential equations, such as the Boltzmann equation of the rarefied gas theory. This has made plausible to introduce crowd models at the intermediate, (meso) scale by describing the crowd by the one particle distribution function that gives the density of individuals at any particular state; that is, at a given point in the domain and moving with a specific velocity.

  17. 14 CFR 121.291 - Demonstration of emergency evacuation procedures. (United States)


    ...) Initial introduction of a type and model of airplane into passenger-carrying operation; (2) Changing the number, location, or emergency evacuation duties or procedures of flight attendants who are required by... passengers and observed by the Administrator, in which the flight attendants for that type and model of...

  18. Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study (United States)

    Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi


    Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

  19. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2005

    CERN Document Server

    Gattermann, Peter; Knoflacher, Hermann; Schreckenberg, Michael


    Due to an increasing number of reported catastrophes all over the world, the safety especially of pedestrians today, is a dramatically growing field of interest, both for practitioners as well as scientists from various disciplines. The questions arising mainly address the dynamics of evacuating people and possible optimisations of the process by changing the architecture and /or the procedure. This concerns not only the case of ships, stadiums or buildings, all with restricted geometries, but also the evacuation of complete geographical regions due to natural disasters. Furthermore, also ‘simple’ crowd motion in ‘relaxed’ situations poses new questions with respect to higher comfort and efficiency since the number of involved persons at large events is as high as never before. In addition, as a new research topic in this field, collective animal behaviour is attracting increasing attention. All this was in the scope of the conference held in Vienna, September 28–30, 2005, the third one in a series ...

  20. Simulating crowd evacuation with socio-cultural, cognitive, and emotional elements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wal, C. Natalie; Formolo, Daniel; Robinson, Mark A.; Minkov, Michael; Bosse, Tibor


    In this research, the effects of culture, cognitions, and emotions on crisis management and prevention are analysed. An agent-based crowd evacuation simulation model was created, named IMPACT, to study the evacuation process from a transport hub. To extend previous research, various socio-cultural,

  1. Evacuation exercise at the Kindergarten

    CERN Multimedia


    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector.  The fire brigade checked t...

  2. Game-Based Evacuation Drill Using Augmented Reality and Head-Mounted Display (United States)

    Kawai, Junya; Mitsuhara, Hiroyuki; Shishibori, Masami


    Purpose: Evacuation drills should be more realistic and interactive. Focusing on situational and audio-visual realities and scenario-based interactivity, the authors have developed a game-based evacuation drill (GBED) system that presents augmented reality (AR) materials on tablet computers. The paper's current research purpose is to improve…

  3. Evacuation of People with Visual Impairments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Janne Gress

    since the model is based on data for this group. Likewise, the theoretical model is conservative estimate for the hearing impaired participants moving on horizontal planes. For all tested subpopulations the walking speed decreased with increasing person density, but the visually impaired participants...... and with a special focus on blind and visually impaired people. An experimental program is designed to obtain data on walking speeds horizontally and descending stairs, interaction between participants and their interaction with the building environment. Experiments are conducted in different buildings including...... for a safe and easy evacuation, challenge the movement for occupants having an impairment. Quantitative results on reaction times, walking speeds horizontally and descending stairs are also obtained from the experiments. It is found that N&M model correlates with results found able-bodied. This is expected...

  4. Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin


    This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

  5. Long term mental health outcomes of Finnish children evacuated to Swedish families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings: cohort study. (United States)

    Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Betancourt, Theresa S; Gilman, Stephen E


    To compare the risks of admission to hospital for any type of psychiatric disorder and for four specific psychiatric disorders among adults who as children were evacuated to Swedish foster families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings, and to evaluate whether these risks differ between the sexes. Cohort study. National child evacuation scheme in Finland during the second world war. Children born in Finland between 1933 and 1944 who were later included in a 10% sample of the 1950 Finnish census ascertained in 1997 (n = 45,463; women: n = 22,021; men: n = 23,442). Evacuees in the sample were identified from war time government records. Adults admitted to hospital for psychiatric disorders recorded between 1971 and 2011 in the Finnish hospital discharge register. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between evacuation to temporary foster care in Sweden during the second world war and admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder between ages 38 and 78 years. Fixed effects methods were employed to control for all unobserved social and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Among men and women combined, the risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder did not differ between Finnish adults evacuated to Swedish foster families and their non-evacuated siblings (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.26). Evidence suggested a lower risk of admission for any mental disorder (0.67, 0.44 to 1.03) among evacuated men, whereas for women there was no association between evacuation and the overall risk of admission for a psychiatric disorder (1.21, 0.80 to 1.83). When admissions for individual psychiatric disorders were analyzed, evacuated girls were significantly more likely than their non-evacuated sisters to be admitted to hospital for a mood disorder as an adult (2.19, 1.10 to 4.33). The Finnish evacuation policy was not associated with an increased overall risk of admission to hospital

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)


    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study.

  7. Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation (United States)

    Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.


    Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

  8. Evacuation Route: Restoring the Railway Transportation of People During the Great Patriotic War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potemkina Marina Nikolaevna


    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the role of the railway transport in migration from the frontline to the Soviet rear during the Great Patriotic War. The research is based on the analysis of the published and archival documents, personal diaries, letters, memoirs, texts of interview with the people who lived through the evacuation. The methodological foundation of the research was based on the theoretical principles made by the Everyday History. Surge attack of the German troops and cruel occupational policy caused the necessity of evacuation of civilians to the Eastern regions of the country. The evacuation was both spontaneous and organized and helped to save millions of human lives. The lack of evacuation plans in case of a war, incompleteness of the railway transport renovation, transport routes destroyed by the enemy and the stream of refugees were among the main factors which complicated evacuation process. The conditions of transportation differed according to the time and the circumstances of the evacuation and a person’s position in social hierarchy. There were some problems during the evacuation, such as regulation of the rail service, sanitation of the carriages, nutrition system, psychological shock. People had to spend weeks in the carriages suffering from cold, hunger and diseases. During the evacuation a new alternative reality appeared with its rules and regulations which changed the concepts of tangible assets and moral values. The priority for any person was to survive, which meant to be independent and to do everything possible.

  9. Experimental analysis of solar thermal integrated MD system for cogeneration of drinking water and hot water for single family villa in dubai using flat plate and evacuated tube solar collectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asim, Muhammad; Imran, Muhammad; Leung, Michael K.H.


    This paper presents the experimental analysis performed on solar thermal integrated membrane distillation (MD) system using flat plate and evacuated tube collectors. The system will be utilized for cogeneration of drinking water and domestic hot water for single family in Dubai comprising of four...... on MD setup at optimized flow rates of 6 L/min on hot side and 3 L/min on cold side for producing the desired distillate. The hot side and cold side MD temperature has been maintained between 60°C and 70°C, and 20°C and 30°C. The total annual energy demand comes out to be 8,223 kWh (6,000 k...

  10. Escape, evacuation, and rescue research project : phase 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bercha, F.G. [Bercha Engineering Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)


    This report describes the work from the Escape, Evacuation and Rescue (EER) research project conducted between April 2001 and March 2003. The objectives were to develop EER performance-based standards (PBS) for offshore oil and gas installations in Canadian waters. It included studies of human performance under extreme conditions, reliability analysis of a specific evacuation system, and the incorporation of research findings into a computer simulation program called the Risk and Performance Tool (RPT). The newest version of the RPT was applied to make use of three major improvements and modifications. This report also discussed the application of RPT to generate information in support of the PBS development program. Methods of quantifying psychological and physiological stressors into the RPT were developed. The RPT was applied to the reliability analysis of the preferred orientation and displacement system. The results indicate the contributions of human and mechanical factors in evacuation performance. Results showed that for evacuations in calm conditions, human error and mechanical failure made the same contribution. Under moderate and severe conditions, human error contributed about twice as much to failure as mechanical failure. Under extreme conditions, both human error and mechanical failure were at the limit. A series of recommendations were proposed to improve performance-based standards. refs., tabs., figs.

  11. Modelling gastric evacuation without meal size as a variable. A model applicable for the estimation of daily ration of cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Temming, Axel; Andersen, Niels Gerner


    S=stomach content, T=time after ingestion, R and B=constants. This model allows for various curve shapes, including linear (B=O) and exponential (B=1), and the curve shape (B) was estimated from the data. Meal size was included in the model by modifying the constant R=R′ × MD, with M=meal size...

  12. 14 CFR 29.803 - Emergency evacuation. (United States)


    ... Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... Emergency evacuation. (a) Each crew and passenger area must have means for rapid evacuation in a crash... folding seats. (e) A combination of analysis and tests may be used to show that the rotorcraft is capable...

  13. 14 CFR 25.803 - Emergency evacuation. (United States)


    ... Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS... evacuation. (a) Each crew and passenger area must have emergency means to allow rapid evacuation in crash... must be shown by actual demonstration using the test criteria outlined in appendix J of this part...

  14. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene


    Hunt, Melissa G.; Bogue, Kelsey; Rohrbaugh, Nick


    Simple Summary Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones during the 2011 Hurricane Irene were surveyed about whether or not they evacuated and about their experiences during the hurricane. Although pet-ownership was not statistically associated with evacuation failure, many pet owners who chose not to evacuate still claimed that they did not evacuate because of difficulties with evacuating their pet. These findings suggest that more work needs to be done ...

  15. Effects of a Sprinkler on Evacuation Dynamics in Fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Yamamoto


    Full Text Available A fire in an enclosed space, such as a room in a building, is generally called a compartment fire. To prevent the compartment fire, a sprinkler for first-aid fire-fighting is installed in rooms. However, it is difficult to determine the degree to which smoke generation and the fire spreading will be inhibited when sprinklers are on. In particular, demonstrating evacuation behavior assuming an actual fire is impossible. In this study, we evaluated an effectiveness of the sprinkler by numerical simulations. To consider evacuation dynamics, a real-coded cellular automata (RCA was used, where we can freely set the direction and velocity of an evacuee based on a floor field model. To consider the situation in the room fire, we used a simulator called Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. Two cases with and without the sprinkler were compared to see the validity of the sprinkler on evacuation dynamics. The effect of smoke and the expansion of the fire-spreading region were discussed. Results show that, since the fire-spreading region disappears when the sprinkler is actuated, the evacuation time decreases. Even though the sprinkler is actuated, the smoke generated at the beginning of a fire diffuses inside the whole room. However, the duration of evacuees being overwhelmed by smoke is less, because the amount of smoke generated by the pyrolysis reaction is much decreased.

  16. Unaccompanied evacuation and adult mortality: evaluating the finnish policy of evacuating children to foster care during World War II. (United States)

    Santavirta, Torsten


    I examined associations between evacuation of Finnish children to temporary foster care in Sweden during World War II and all-cause mortality between ages 38 and 78 years. I used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate mortality risk according to whether the individual was evacuated during childhood or not. I used within-sibling analysis to control for all unobserved socioeconomic and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Individual-level data for Finnish cohorts born in 1933 to 1944 were derived from wartime government records, Finnish census data from 1950 and 1970, and death cause registry from 1971 to 2011. I found no statistically significant association between evacuation and all-cause mortality when all exposed individuals were included in the analysis. However, subgroup analysis showed that men evacuated before age 4 years had a 1.31 higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.69) than their nonevacuated counterparts. In the aggregate, individuals do not have elevated mortality risk as a consequence of foster care during early childhood owing to the onset of sudden external shocks (e.g., wars).

  17. Evaluating coastal and river valley communities evacuation network performance using macroscopic productivity. (United States)


    The ever-increasing processing speed and computational power of computers and simulation systems has led to correspondingly larger, more sophisticated representations of evacuation traffic processes. Today, micro-level analyses can be conducted for m...

  18. Transit-Based Emergency Evacuation with Transit Signal Priority in Sudden-Onset Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciyun Lin


    Full Text Available This study presents methods of transit signal priority without transit-only lanes for a transit-based emergency evacuation in a sudden-onset disaster. Arterial priority signal coordination is optimized when a traffic signal control system provides priority signals for transit vehicles along an evacuation route. Transit signal priority is determined by “transit vehicle arrival time estimation,” “queuing vehicle dissipation time estimation,” “traffic signal status estimation,” “transit signal optimization,” and “arterial traffic signal coordination for transit vehicle in evacuation route.” It takes advantage of the large capacities of transit vehicles, reduces the evacuation time, and evacuates as many evacuees as possible. The proposed methods were tested on a simulation platform with Paramics V6.0. To evaluate and compare the performance of transit signal priority, three scenarios were simulated in the simulator. The results indicate that the methods of this study can reduce the travel times of transit vehicles along an evacuation route by 13% and 10%, improve the standard deviation of travel time by 16% and 46%, and decrease the average person delay at a signalized intersection by 22% and 17% when the traffic flow saturation along an evacuation route is 0.81.0, respectively.

  19. High pressures in room evacuation processes and a first approach to the dynamics around unconscious pedestrians (United States)

    Cornes, F. E.; Frank, G. A.; Dorso, C. O.


    Clogging raises as the principal phenomenon during many evacuation processes of pedestrians in an emergency situation. As people push to escape from danger, compression forces may increase to harming levels. Many individuals might fall down, while others will try to dodge the fallen people, or, simply pass through them. We studied the dynamics of the crowd for these situations, in the context of the ;social force model;. We modeled the unconscious (fallen) pedestrians as inanimate bodies that can be dodged (or not) by the surrounding individuals. We found that new morphological structures appear along the evacuating crowd. Under specific conditions, these structures may enhance the evacuation performance. The pedestrian's willings for either dodging or passing through the unconscious individuals play a relevant role in the overall evacuation performance.

  20. The Bali bombing: civilian aeromedical evacuation. (United States)

    Tran, Minh D; Garner, Alan A; Morrison, Ion; Sharley, Peter H; Griggs, William M; Xavier, Colin


    After the Bali bombing on 12 October 2002, many injured Australians required evacuation to Darwin, and then to burns units around Australia. Many patients were evacuated from Denpasar by Qantas, with assistance from staff of civilian medical retrieval services. The transport of patients from Darwin to specialist burns units involved a coordinated response of civilian and military services. Some issues in responding to such disasters were identified, and a national coordinating network could improve future responses.

  1. Proceedings of Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2016


    Song, Weiguo; Ma, Jian; Fu, Libi


    The 8th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics (PED 2016) has been held on October 17–21, 2016 in Hefei, China. PED 2016 Conference offered an opportunity for professionals and scientists with different backgrounds to present and discuss new findings and applications in the field of pedestrian and evacuation dynamics and associated human behavior. The conference aims to provide suggestions for policy makers, planners, designers and emergency management to solve real wo...

  2. Suction evacuation of hemothorax: A prospective study. (United States)

    Savage, Stephanie A; Cibulas, George A; Ward, Tyler A; Davis, Corinne A; Croce, Martin A; Zarzaur, Ben L


    Although tube thoracostomy is a common procedure after thoracic trauma, incomplete evacuation of fluid places the patient at risk for retained hemothorax. As little as 300 to 500 cm of blood may result in the need for an additional thoracostomy tube or, in more severe cases, lung entrapment and empyema. We hypothesized that suction evacuation of the thoracic cavity before tube placement would decrease the incidence of late complications. Patients requiring tube thoracostomy within 96 hours of admission were prospectively identified and underwent suction evacuation of the pleural space (SEPS) before tube placement. These patients were compared to historical controls without suction evacuation. Demographics, admission vital signs, laboratory values, details of chest tube placement, and outcomes were collected on all patients. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare outcomes between groups. A total of 199 patients were identified, consisting of 100 retrospective controls and 99 SEPS patients. There were no differences in age, sex, admission injury severity score or chest abbreviated injury score, admission laboratory values or vital signs, or hospital length of stay. Mean (SD) volume of hemothorax in SEPS patients was 220 (297) cm; with only 48% having a volume greater than 100 cm at the time of tube placement. Three patients developed empyema, and 19 demonstrated retained blood; there was no difference between SEPS and control patients. Suction evacuation of the pleural space was significantly protective against recurrent pneumothorax after chest tube removal (odds ratio, 0.332; 95% confidence interval, 0.148-0.745). Preemptive suction evacuation of the thoracic cavity did not have a significant impact on subsequent development of retained hemothorax or empyema. Suction evacuation of the pleural space significantly decreased incidence of recurrent pneumothorax after thoracostomy removal. Although the mechanism is unclear, such a benefit may make this

  3. K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyue He

    Full Text Available Emergency evacuation aims to transport people from dangerous places to safe shelters as quickly as possible. Police play an important role in the evacuation process, as they can handle traffic accidents immediately and help people move smoothly on roads. This paper investigates an evacuation routing problem that involves police resource allocation. We propose a novel k-th-shortest-path-based technique that uses explicit congestion control to optimize evacuation routing and police resource allocation. A nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is presented to formulate the problem. The model's objective is to minimize the overall evacuation clearance time. Two algorithms are given to solve the problem. The first one linearizes the original model and solves the linearized problem with CPLEX. The second one is a heuristic algorithm that uses a police resource utilization efficiency index to directly solve the original model. This police resource utilization efficiency index significantly aids in the evaluation of road links from an evacuation throughput perspective. The proposed algorithms are tested with a number of examples based on real data from cities of different sizes. The computational results show that the police resource utilization efficiency index is very helpful in finding near-optimal solutions. Additionally, comparing the performance of the heuristic algorithm and the linearization method by using randomly generated examples indicates that the efficiency of the heuristic algorithm is superior.

  4. K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks. (United States)

    He, Yunyue; Liu, Zhong; Shi, Jianmai; Wang, Yishan; Zhang, Jiaming; Liu, Jinyuan


    Emergency evacuation aims to transport people from dangerous places to safe shelters as quickly as possible. Police play an important role in the evacuation process, as they can handle traffic accidents immediately and help people move smoothly on roads. This paper investigates an evacuation routing problem that involves police resource allocation. We propose a novel k-th-shortest-path-based technique that uses explicit congestion control to optimize evacuation routing and police resource allocation. A nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is presented to formulate the problem. The model's objective is to minimize the overall evacuation clearance time. Two algorithms are given to solve the problem. The first one linearizes the original model and solves the linearized problem with CPLEX. The second one is a heuristic algorithm that uses a police resource utilization efficiency index to directly solve the original model. This police resource utilization efficiency index significantly aids in the evaluation of road links from an evacuation throughput perspective. The proposed algorithms are tested with a number of examples based on real data from cities of different sizes. The computational results show that the police resource utilization efficiency index is very helpful in finding near-optimal solutions. Additionally, comparing the performance of the heuristic algorithm and the linearization method by using randomly generated examples indicates that the efficiency of the heuristic algorithm is superior.

  5. A Game Theory Based on Monte Carlo Analysis for Optimizing Evacuation Routing in Complex Scenes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenhui Li


    Full Text Available With more complex structures and denser populations, congestion is a crucial factor in estimating evacuation clearance time. This paper presents a novel evacuation model that implements a game theory combining the greatest entropy optimization criterion with stochastic Monte Carlo methods to optimize the congestion problem and other features of emergency evacuation planning. We introduce the greatest entropy criterion for convergence to Nash equilibrium in the n-person noncooperative game. The process of managing the conflict problem is divided into two steps. In the first step, we utilize Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the risk degree of each route. In the second step, we propose an improved method based on game theory, which obtains an optimal solution to guide the evacuation of all agents from the building.

  6. Advanced transport systems analysis, modeling, and evaluation of performances

    CERN Document Server

    Janić, Milan


    This book provides a systematic analysis, modeling and evaluation of the performance of advanced transport systems. It offers an innovative approach by presenting a multidimensional examination of the performance of advanced transport systems and transport modes, useful for both theoretical and practical purposes. Advanced transport systems for the twenty-first century are characterized by the superiority of one or several of their infrastructural, technical/technological, operational, economic, environmental, social, and policy performances as compared to their conventional counterparts. The advanced transport systems considered include: Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) systems in urban area(s), electric and fuel cell passenger cars, high speed tilting trains, High Speed Rail (HSR), Trans Rapid Maglev (TRM), Evacuated Tube Transport system (ETT), advanced commercial subsonic and Supersonic Transport Aircraft (STA), conventionally- and Liquid Hydrogen (LH2)-fuelled commercial air trans...

  7. A crowd of pedestrian dynamics - The perspective of physics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al. (United States)

    Miguel, António F.


    Walking is the most basic form of transportation. A good understanding of pedestrian's dynamics is essential in meeting the mobility and accessibility needs of people by providing a safe and quick walking flow [1]. Advances in the dynamics of pedestrians in crowds are of great theoretical and practical interest, as they lead to new insights regarding the planning of pedestrian facilities, crowd management, or evacuation analysis. Nicola Bellomo's et al. article [2] is a very timely review of the related research on modelling approaches, computational simulations, decision-making and crisis response. It also includes an attempt to accurately define commonly used terms, as well as a critical analysis of crowd dynamics and safety problems. As noted by the authors, ;models and simulations offer a virtual representation of real dynamics; that are essential to understand and predict the ;behavioural dynamics of crowds; [2]. As a physicist, I would like to put forward some additional theoretical and practical contributions that could be interesting to explore, regarding the perspective of physics on about human crowd dynamics (panic as a specific form of behaviour excluded).

  8. Evacuation proctography: a reappraisal of normal variability. (United States)

    Palit, S; Bhan, C; Lunniss, P J; Boyle, D J; Gladman, M A; Knowles, C H; Scott, S M


    Interpretation of evacuation proctography (EP) images is reliant on robust normative data. Previous studies of EP in asymptomatic subjects have been methodologically limited. The aim of this study was to provide parameters of normality for both genders using EP. Evacuation proctography was prospectively performed on 46 healthy volunteers (28 women). Proctograms were independently analysed by two reviewers. All established and some new variables of defaecatory structure and function were assessed objectively: anorectal dimensions; anorectal angle changes; evacuation time; percentage contrast evacuated; and incidence of rectal wall morphological 'abnormalities'. Normal ranges were calculated for all main variables. Mean end-evacuation time was 88 s (95% CI: 63-113) in male subjects and 128 s (95% CI: 98-158) in female subjects; percentage contrast evacuated was 71% (95% CI: 63-80) in male subjects and 65% (95% CI: 58-72) in female subjects. Twenty-six (93%) of 28 female subjects had a rectocoele with a mean depth of 2.5 cm (upper limit = 3.9 cm). Recto-rectal intussusception was found in nine subjects (approximately 20% of both genders); however, recto-anal intussusception was not observed. Only rectal diameter differed significantly between genders. Qualitatively, three patterns of evacuation were present. This study defines normal ranges for anorectal dimensions and parameters of emptying, as well as the incidence and characteristics of rectal-wall 'abnormalities' observed or derived from EP. These ranges can be applied clinically for subsequent disease comparison. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  9. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios (United States)

    Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul


    This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  10. How to simulate pedestrian behaviors in seismic evacuation for vulnerability reduction of existing buildings (United States)

    Quagliarini, Enrico; Bernardini, Gabriele; D'Orazio, Marco


    Understanding and representing how individuals behave in earthquake emergencies would be essentially to assess the impact of vulnerability reduction strategies on existing buildings in seismic areas. In fact, interactions between individuals and the scenario (modified by the earthquake occurrence) are really important in order to understand the possible additional risks for people, especially during the evacuation phase. The current approach is based on "qualitative" aspects, in order to define best practice guidelines for Civil Protection and populations. On the contrary, a "quantitative" description of human response and evacuation motion in similar conditions is urgently needed. Hence, this work defines the rules for pedestrians' earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios, by taking advantages of previous results of real-world evacuation analyses. In particular, motion laws for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model equation. The proposed model could be used for evaluating individuals' evacuation process and so for defining operative strategies for interferences reduction in critical urban fabric parts (e.g.: interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition, city parts projects).

  11. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad


    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  12. BIM Based Virtual Environment for Fire Emergency Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang


    Full Text Available Recent building emergency management research has highlighted the need for the effective utilization of dynamically changing building information. BIM (building information modelling can play a significant role in this process due to its comprehensive and standardized data format and integrated process. This paper introduces a BIM based virtual environment supported by virtual reality (VR and a serious game engine to address several key issues for building emergency management, for example, timely two-way information updating and better emergency awareness training. The focus of this paper lies on how to utilize BIM as a comprehensive building information provider to work with virtual reality technologies to build an adaptable immersive serious game environment to provide real-time fire evacuation guidance. The innovation lies on the seamless integration between BIM and a serious game based virtual reality (VR environment aiming at practical problem solving by leveraging state-of-the-art computing technologies. The system has been tested for its robustness and functionality against the development requirements, and the results showed promising potential to support more effective emergency management.

  13. BIM based virtual environment for fire emergency evacuation. (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Li, Haijiang; Rezgui, Yacine; Bradley, Alex; Ong, Hoang N


    Recent building emergency management research has highlighted the need for the effective utilization of dynamically changing building information. BIM (building information modelling) can play a significant role in this process due to its comprehensive and standardized data format and integrated process. This paper introduces a BIM based virtual environment supported by virtual reality (VR) and a serious game engine to address several key issues for building emergency management, for example, timely two-way information updating and better emergency awareness training. The focus of this paper lies on how to utilize BIM as a comprehensive building information provider to work with virtual reality technologies to build an adaptable immersive serious game environment to provide real-time fire evacuation guidance. The innovation lies on the seamless integration between BIM and a serious game based virtual reality (VR) environment aiming at practical problem solving by leveraging state-of-the-art computing technologies. The system has been tested for its robustness and functionality against the development requirements, and the results showed promising potential to support more effective emergency management.

  14. Pressure Model for the Vacuum System for the Electron Gun and Injector for LCLS Final Design Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tung, L S; Eriksson, L


    The vacuum system of the injector for the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) has been analyzed and configured by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's New Technologies Engineering Division (NTED) as requested by the SLAC/LCLS program. The vacuum system layout and detailed analyses for the injector are presented in this final design report. The vacuum system was analyzed and optimized using a coupled gas load balance model of sub-volumes of the components to be evacuated.

  15. Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii. (United States)

    Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric


    Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both

  16. Tsunami Evacuation Exercises: the Case of Heraklion, Crete Isl., Greece (United States)

    Triantafyllou, I.; Charalampakis, M.; Bocchini, G. M.; Novikova, T.; Papadopoulos, G. A.


    Effective tsunami evacuation requires appropriate awareness as regards good shelters selection. Field exercises may improve public awareness. A field exercise was organized in Heraklion, Crete Isl., in 2016. The area is part of the Hellenic Arc which is the most active structure in the Mediterranean. Large earthquakes triggered tsunamis that hit Heraklion in the past, such in AD 1303. After selecting various fault models, simulation of the 1303 tsunami showed important inundation zone in Heraklion. For the exercise needs a team of 30 volunteers was divided in 3 groups of 10 people each. Everyone was equipped with a mobile phone and a GPS device. The 3 groups were gathered in 3 coastal spots Heraklion situated 400 m apart each other. The scenario was that immediately after receiving in their mobile a tsunami warning message they will set on their personal GPS device and start evacuating inland on the best way they believed to do so. In each group, only 5 out of 10 volunteers were notified beforehand that the Eleftherias Square, located inland at distance satisfying evacuation needs in case of repeat of the 1303 tsunami, would be a good shelter to go. Using the Road Graph Plugin of QGIS, we calculated the shortest path distances which found equal to 800, 700 and 680 m. Adopting average velocity of 3 km/h we found that these distances can be covered within 18, 16 and 15 min, respectively. The routes towards the settlement spots as well as the times needed to arrive there by each one of the 30 volunteers were recorded by their personal GPS devices. The processing of the GPS tracks and their comparison with the theoretical routes and times showed good evacuation performance which is encouraging for the next phases of the Heraklion tsunami hazard mitigation program. This is contribution to the EU-FP7 projects ZIP (Zooming In between Plates, grant no: 604713, 2013) and ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant no: 603839, 2013.

  17. Impact of Smoke Evacuation on Patient Experience During Mohs Surgery. (United States)

    Yonan, Yousif; Ochoa, Shari


    There have been several investigations into possible health risks of surgical smoke exposure, and it has previously been associated with harboring pathogens and carcinogens. Patients in the authors' practice have expressed that the odor from the smoke created by electrosurgical equipment is unpleasant. The authors sought to determine if smoke evacuation decreases patient perception of smoke created by electrosurgery during Mohs surgery and if it subsequently improves patient satisfaction with their surgical experience by minimizing the associated odor. Thirty patients were enrolled in this comparative trial. Smoke evacuation was used during closure but not during Mohs stages. Patients were queried regarding their experience and preferences during and at the end of the procedure. 100% of patients reported the perception of a burning odor during removal of Mohs stages, compared with 40% reporting the perception of a burning odor during closure. During the Mohs stages, 66.6% of patients reported the odor as unpleasant compared with 16.6% of patients during closure. There were no statistically significant differences in patient perceptions when stratified by age, sex, or surgical site. The authors believe that using a wall suction smoke evacuation system is simple and can result in a more pleasant experience for patients undergoing Mohs surgery.

  18. Usability and Visual Communication for Southern California Tsunami Evacuation Information: The importance of information design in disaster risk management (United States)

    Jaenichen, C.; Schandler, S.; Wells, M.; Danielsen, T.


    Evacuation behavior, including participation and response, is rarely an individual and isolated process and the outcomes are usually systemic. Ineffective evacuation information can easily attribute to delayed evacuation response. Delays increase demands on already extended emergency personal, increase the likelihood of traffic congestion, and can cause harm to self and property. From an information design perspective, addressing issues in cognitive recall and emergency psychology, this case study examines evacuation messaging including written, audio, and visual presentation of information, and describes the application of design principles and role of visual communication for Southern California tsunami evacuation outreach. The niche of this project is the inclusion of cognitive processing as the driving influence when making formal design decisions and measurable data from a 4-year cognitive recall study to support the solution. Image included shows a tsunami evacaution map before and after the redesign.

  19. Reproductive behavior following evacuation to foster care duringWorld War II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torsten Santavirta


    Full Text Available Background: Family disruption and separation form parents during childhood may have long-lasting effects on the child. Previous literature documents associations between separation from parents and cognitive ability, educational attainment, and health, but little is known about effects on subsequent reproductive behavior. Objective: We evaluate the associations between unaccompanied evacuation to foster care and subsequent marriage and fertility behavior by comparing Finnish children who were evacuated to Swedish foster families during World War II to their non-evacuated siblings. Methods: In total, some 49,000 children were evacuated for a period ranging from months to years. We analyze a nationally representative sample of 2,009 evacuees born in 1933-1944 by combining data collected from war time government records with 1950 and 1971 censuses and 1971-2011 population registers. Results: Comparison of evacuated and nonevacuated same-sex siblings suggests no associations between evacuation and the probability of ever marrying, timing of first birth, and completed family size, although some associations are found in na¨ıve means comparisons. This difference in results across models is suggestive of negative selection of evacuee families. Conclusions: We do not find consistent evidence of any causal effect of family disruption on family formation and reproductive behavior. The results are sensitive to controlling for unobserved selection and suggest that some of the adverse outcomes documented in earlier literature could change if selection was accounted for.

  20. Social Factors as Modifiers of Hurricane Irene Evacuation Behavior in Beaufort County, NC. (United States)

    Ricchetti-Masterson, Kristen; Horney, Jennifer


    Encouraging residents in high-risk areas to evacuate before a hurricane makes landfall is one of the few ways to reduce hurricane-related morbidity and mortality. However, demographic factors associated with evacuation in at-risk groups have not been consistent across studies. To determine if social factors (social control, social cohesion, and social capital) modified the relationship between demographic groups and failure to evacuate from Hurricane Irene, the authors conducted a cross-sectional stratified two-stage cluster sample among residents of Beaufort County, NC. Of 226 attempted rapid response interviews, 205 were completed (response rate = 90.7%). Data were analyzed using generalized linear modeling, which produced crude risk differences to estimate the association between failure to evacuate from Hurricane Irene and a number of demographic and social factors; effect measure modification (EMM) was assessed on the additive scale through stratified analyses of key social factors. There were no significant associations between demographic or social factors and evacuation in the bivariate analysis. However, EMM was present for households with high social capital or social cohesion among special needs residents, those over age 65, males, and non-whites. In Beaufort County, NC, future hazard mitigation plans should include evacuation messages tailored for households with high social capital or social cohesion.

  1. Modelling of Indoor Environments Using Lindenmayer Systems (United States)

    Peter, M.


    Documentation of the "as-built" state of building interiors has gained a lot of interest in the recent years. Various data acquisition methods exist, e.g. the extraction from photographed evacuation plans using image processing or, most prominently, indoor mobile laser scanning. Due to clutter or data gaps as well as errors during data acquisition and processing, automatic reconstruction of CAD/BIM-like models from these data sources is not a trivial task. Thus it is often tried to support reconstruction by general rules for the perpendicularity and parallelism which are predominant in man-made structures. Indoor environments of large, public buildings, however, often also follow higher-level rules like symmetry and repetition of e.g. room sizes and corridor widths. In the context of reconstruction of city city elements (e.g. street networks) or building elements (e.g. façade layouts), formal grammars have been put to use. In this paper, we describe the use of Lindenmayer systems - which originally have been developed for the computer-based modelling of plant growth - to model and reproduce the layout of indoor environments in 2D.

  2. Panic evacuation of single pedestrians and couples (United States)

    Frank, G. A.; Dorso, C. O.


    Understanding the timing requirements for evacuation of people has focused primarily on independent pedestrians rather than pedestrians emotionally connected. However, the main statistical effects observed in crowds, the so-called “faster is slower”, “clever is not always better” and the “low visibility enhancement”, cannot explain the overall behavior of a crowd during an evacuation process when correlated pedestrians due to, for example feelings, are present. Our research addresses this issue and examines the statistical behavior of a mixture of individuals and couples during a (panic) escaping process. We found that the attractive feeling among couples plays an important role in the time delays during the evacuation of a single exit room.

  3. Evacuation and assembly of aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev


    EU project a promising method was proposed, so the time for evacuation could be reduced from several hours to a few minutes.The aim of this project was to design and build an apparatus for evacuation and assembly of aerogel glazings up to 60 cm x 60 cm based on the proposed method.The key element...... of the method is the vacuum chamber in which the aerogel glazing is prior to mounting of the last glass pane. This glass pane is kept above the rest of the glazing while the chamber is evacuated. When the desired gas pressure is reached the glazing is assembled and the chamber is ventilated. Due to the fast...

  4. Automatization of hydrodynamic modelling in a Floreon+ system (United States)

    Ronovsky, Ales; Kuchar, Stepan; Podhoranyi, Michal; Vojtek, David


    The paper describes fully automatized hydrodynamic modelling as a part of the Floreon+ system. The main purpose of hydrodynamic modelling in the disaster management is to provide an accurate overview of the hydrological situation in a given river catchment. Automatization of the process as a web service could provide us with immediate data based on extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rainfall, without the intervention of an expert. Such a service can be used by non scientific users such as fire-fighter operators or representatives of a military service organizing evacuation during floods or river dam breaks. The paper describes the whole process beginning with a definition of a schematization necessary for hydrodynamic model, gathering of necessary data and its processing for a simulation, the model itself and post processing of a result and visualization on a web service. The process is demonstrated on a real data collected during floods in our Moravian-Silesian region in 2010.

  5. Possible Factors Promoting Car Evacuation in the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Revealed by Analysing a Large-Scale Questionnaire Survey in Kesennuma City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiyasu Makinoshima


    Full Text Available Excessive car evacuation can cause severe traffic jams that can lead to large numbers of casualties during tsunami disasters. Investigating the possible factors that lead to unnecessary car evacuation can ensure smoother tsunami evacuations and mitigate casualty damages in future tsunami events. In this study, we quantitatively investigated the possible factors that promote car evacuation, including both necessary and unnecessary usages, by statistically analysing a large amount of data on actual tsunami evacuation behaviours surveyed in Kesennuma, where devastating damage occurred during the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. A straightforward statistical analysis revealed a high percentage of car evacuations (approx. 50%; however, this fraction includes a high number of unnecessary usage events that were distinguished based on mode choice reasons. In addition, a binary logistic regression was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the effects of several factors and to identify the dominant factor that affected evacuation mode choice. The regression results suggested that the evacuation distance was the dominant factor for choosing car evacuation relative to other factors, such as age and sex. The cross-validation test of the regression model demonstrated that the considered factors were useful for decision making and the prediction of evacuation mode choice in the target area.

  6. Public assessment of the usefulness of "draft" tsunami evacuation maps from Sydney, Australia – implications for the establishment of formal evacuation plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso


    Full Text Available Australia is at risk from tsunamis and recent work has identified the need for models to assess the vulnerability of exposed coastal areas – a fundamental element of the risk management process. Outputs of vulnerability assessment can be used as a baseline for the generation of tsunami prevention and mitigation measures, including evacuation maps. Having noted that no evacuation maps exist for Manly, Sydney (an area recently subjected to high resolution building vulnerability assessment by Dall'Osso et al., 2009b, we use the results of the analysis by Dall'Osso et al. (2009b to "draft" tsunami evacuation maps that could be used by the local emergency service organisations. We then interviewed 500 permanent residents of Manly in order to gain a rapid assessment on their views about the potential usefulness of the draft evacuation maps we generated. Results of the survey indicate that residents think the maps are useful and understandable, and include insights that should be considered by local government planners and emergency risk management specialists during the development of official evacuation maps (and plans in the future.

  7. A Hemoglobin-based Oxygen Carrier, Bovine Polymerized Hemoglobin (HBOC-201) Versus Hetastarch (HEX) in a Moderate Severity Hemorrhagic Shock Swine Model with Delayed Evacuation (United States)


    were administered 13 mg/kg cep- hazolin (antibiotic) and 0.01 mg/kg buprenorphine (anal- gesic), as well as 10 ml/kg autologous shed blood for ane...approved veterinary HBOC) has been completed in large animal models of controlled hemorrhage (Table 5). In the present model of controlled hemorrhage with

  8. Prototype Tsunami Evacuation Park in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (United States)

    Tucker, B. E.; Cedillos, V.; Deierlein, G.; Di Mauro, M.; Kornberg, K.


    Padang, Indonesia, a city of some 900,000 people, half of whom live close to the coast and within a five-meter elevation above sea level, has one of the highest tsunami risks in the world due to its close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, flat terrain and dense population. There is a high probability that a tsunami will strike the shores of Padang, flooding half of the area of the city, within the next 30 years. If that tsunami occurred today, it is estimated that several hundred thousand people would die, as they could not reach safe ground in the ~30 minute interval between the earthquake's occurrence and the tsunami's arrival. Padang's needs have been amply demonstrated: after earthquakes in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012, citizens, thinking that those earthquakes might cause a tsunami, tried to evacuate in cars and motorbikes, which created traffic jams, and most could not reach safe ground in 30 minutes. Since 2008, GeoHazards International (GHI) and Stanford University have studied a range of options for improving this situation, including ways to accelerate evacuation to high ground with pedestrian bridges and widened roads, and means of "vertical" evacuation in multi-story buildings, mosques, pedestrian overpasses, and Tsunami Evacuation Parks (TEPs), which are man-made hills with recreation facilities on top. TEPs proved most practical and cost-effective for Padang, given the available budget, technology and time. The Earth Observatory Singapore (EOS) developed an agent-based model that simulates pedestrian and vehicular evacuation to assess tsunami risk and risk reduction interventions in Southeast Asia. EOS applied this model to analyze the effectiveness in Padang of TEPs over other tsunami risk management approaches in terms of evacuation times and the number of people saved. The model shows that only ~24,000 people (20% of the total population) in the northern part of Padang can reach safe ground within 30 minutes, if people evacuate using cars and

  9. Behaviour and Perception-based Pedestrian Evacuation Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Kretz, Tobias; Muehlberger, Andreas


    This contribution reports on the research project SKRIBT and some of its results. An evacuation simulation based on VISSIM's pedestrian dynamics simulation was developed, that -- with high time resolution -- integrates results from studies on behavior in stress and crisis situations, results from CFD models for e.g. fire dynamics simulations, and considers visibility of signage and -- adding a psychological model -- its cognition. A crucial issue is the cognition of smoke or fire by the occupant and his / her resulting spontaneous or deliberate reaction to this episode.

  10. Collective learning dynamics in behavioral crowds. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modeling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al. (United States)

    Burini, D.


    A recent literature on crowd dynamics [9,10] has enlightened that the management of crisis situations needs models able to depict social behaviors and, in particular, the spread of emotional feelings such as stress by panic situation.

  11. How to evaluate the influence of blood collection systems on the international sensitivity index. Protocol applied to two new evacuated tubes and eight coagulometer/thromboplastin combinations. (United States)

    Tripodi, Armando; Chantarangkul, Veena; Bressi, Caterina; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio


    Previous reports indicate that the international sensitivity index (ISI) of coagulometer/thromboplastin combinations (measuring systems) may be influenced by blood collection systems. We applied a new protocol to assess the extent with which two new blood collection systems (evaluation tubes) influence the ISI of eight widely used measuring systems. The evaluation tubes were made of plastic and had draw volumes of 1.8 and 2.7 ml; citrate concentration was 0.109 M. Well-established collection tubes (from the same manufacturer)-which were made of siliconized glass with draw volume and citrate concentration of 4.5 ml and 0.105 M, respectively-served as control. Plasmas from 20 healthy subjects and 60 patients on oral anticoagulants, collected with the evaluation and control tubes, were tested for prothrombin time (PT) with the eight measuring systems. Plasmas collected with the control tubes were also tested with an international standard for thromboplastin. Results were used to calculate the ISIs of the measuring systems. These were then used to calculate the differences of the crossover international normalized ratio (INR) (i.e., the INR obtained with PT ratios of plasmas collected into the evaluation tubes and the ISI determined with plasmas collected into the control tubes). Overall, the differences were small but measurable, especially for the 2.7-ml draw evaluation tubes and with some of the measuring systems (mean difference, systems.

  12. Modeling of System Families

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Feiler, Peter


    .... The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL) is an industry-standard, architecture-modeling notation specifically designed to support a component- based approach to modeling embedded systems...

  13. System equivalent model mixing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, Steven W.B.; van der Seijs, M.V.; de Klerk, D.


    This paper introduces SEMM: a method based on Frequency Based Substructuring (FBS) techniques that enables the construction of hybrid dynamic models. With System Equivalent Model Mixing (SEMM) frequency based models, either of numerical or experimental nature, can be mixed to form a hybrid model.

  14. Evacuation of children - movement on stairs and on Horizontal Plane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne


    Little is known on the evacuation characteristics of children. Current literature on evacuation is based mostly on studies on adults. The aim of this study is to investigate the movement of children during evacuation, focusing on flow, densities and walking. Ten Danish daycare centers participated...

  15. 21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (United States)


    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

  16. 21 CFR 876.4370 - Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. (United States)


    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. 876.4370... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES GASTROENTEROLOGY-UROLOGY DEVICES Surgical Devices § 876.4370 Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. (a) Identification. A gastroenterology-urology evacuator is a device used to remove...

  17. The impact of a major earthquake on the evacuation of the emergency planning zone of a nuclear power plant. (United States)

    Cohen, Rebecca; Weinisch, Kevin


    United States regulations require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to estimate the time needed to evacuate the emergency planning zone (EPZ, a circle with an approximate 10-mile radius centered at the NPP). These evacuation time estimate (ETE) studies are to be used by emergency personnel in the event of a radiological emergency. ETE studies are typically done using traffic simulation and evacuation models, based on traffic engineering algorithms that reflect congestion and delay. ETE studies are typically conducted assuming all evacuation routes are traversable. As witnessed in the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, an earthquake and the ensuing tsunami can cause an incident at a NPP that requires an evacuation of the public. The earthquake and tsunami can also damage many of the available bridges and roadways and, therefore, impede evacuation and put people at risk of radiation exposure. This article presents a procedure, using traffic simulation and evacuation models, to estimate the impact on ETE due to bridge and roadway damage caused by a major earthquake, or similar hazardous event. The results of this analysis are used by emergency personnel to make protective action decisions that will minimize the exposure of radiation to the public. Additionally, the results allow emergency planners to ensure proper equipment and personnel are available for these types of events. Emergency plans are revised to ensure prompt response and recovery action during critical times.

  18. Stomach evacuation rates of cod and herring estimated from ship-board tank experiments and field data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Temming, A; Koster, F.W


    ... (stomach content cannot fall below zero) as proposed by Bromley (1988). From the experiments carried out with herring the exponent B of the "general" evacuation model (ds (t)/dt = - R * S(t); with S(t)=stomach...

  19. Assessing the long-term impact of subsidence and global climate change on emergency evacuation routes in coastal Louisiana. (United States)


    Subsidence forecast models for coastal Louisiana were developed to estimate the change in surface elevations of evacuation routes for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Geophysical and anthropogenic subsidence estimates were derived from on-going ...

  20. Effect of varying two key parameters in simulating evacuation for a dormitory in China (United States)

    Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran


    Student dormitories are both living and resting areas for students in their spare time. There are many small rooms in the dormitories. And the students are distributed densely in the dormitories. High occupant density is the main characteristic of student dormitories. Once there is an accident, such as fire or earthquake, the losses will be cruel. Computer evacuation models developed overseas are commonly applied in working out safety management schemes. The average minimum widths of corridor and exit are the two key parameters affecting the evacuation for the dormitory. The effect of varying these two parameters will be studied in this paper by taking a dormitory in our university as an example. Evacuation performance is predicted with the software FDS + Evac. The default values in the software are used and adjusted through a field survey. The effect of varying either of the two parameters is discussed. It is found that the simulated results agree well with the experimental results. From our study it seems that the evacuation time is not in proportion to the evacuation distance. And we also named a phenomenon of “the closer is not the faster”. For the building researched in this article, a corridor width of 3 m is the most appropriate. And the suitable exit width of the dormitory for evacuation is about 2.5 to 3 m. The number of people has great influence on the walking speed of people. The purpose of this study is to optimize the building, and to make the building in favor of personnel evacuation. Then the damage could be minimized.

  1. Integrated Workforce Modeling System (United States)

    Moynihan, Gary P.


    There are several computer-based systems, currently in various phases of development at KSC, which encompass some component, aspect, or function of workforce modeling. These systems may offer redundant capabilities and/or incompatible interfaces. A systems approach to workforce modeling is necessary in order to identify and better address user requirements. This research has consisted of two primary tasks. Task 1 provided an assessment of existing and proposed KSC workforce modeling systems for their functionality and applicability to the workforce planning function. Task 2 resulted in the development of a proof-of-concept design for a systems approach to workforce modeling. The model incorporates critical aspects of workforce planning, including hires, attrition, and employee development.

  2. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nick Rohrbaugh


    Full Text Available Pet ownership has historically been one of the biggest risk factors for evacuation failure prior to natural disasters. The forced abandonment of pets during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 made national headlines and led to the passage of the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (PETS, 2006 which mandated local authorities to plan for companion animal evacuation. Hurricane Irene hit the East Coast of the United States in 2011, providing an excellent opportunity to examine the impact of the PETS legislation on frequency and ease of evacuation among pet owners and non-pet owners. Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones completed questionnaires assessing their experiences during the hurricane and symptoms of depression, PTSD, dissociative experiences, and acute stress. Pet ownership was not found to be a statistical risk factor for evacuation failure. However, many pet owners who failed to evacuate continue to cite pet related reasons.

  3. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene. (United States)

    Hunt, Melissa G; Bogue, Kelsey; Rohrbaugh, Nick


    Pet ownership has historically been one of the biggest risk factors for evacuation failure prior to natural disasters. The forced abandonment of pets during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 made national headlines and led to the passage of the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (PETS, 2006) which mandated local authorities to plan for companion animal evacuation. Hurricane Irene hit the East Coast of the United States in 2011, providing an excellent opportunity to examine the impact of the PETS legislation on frequency and ease of evacuation among pet owners and non-pet owners. Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones completed questionnaires assessing their experiences during the hurricane and symptoms of depression, PTSD, dissociative experiences, and acute stress. Pet ownership was not found to be a statistical risk factor for evacuation failure. However, many pet owners who failed to evacuate continue to cite pet related reasons.

  4. Modelling Railway Interlocking Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegaard, Morten Peter; Viuf, P.; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth


    In this report we present a model of interlocking systems, and describe how the model may be validated by simulation. Station topologies are modelled by graphs in which the nodes denote track segments, and the edges denote connectivity for train traÆc. Points and signals are modelled by annotations...... on the edges, thereby restricting the driving possibilities. We de ne the safe station states as predicates on the graph, and present a rst step towards an implementation of these predicates....

  5. Measuring US Army medical evacuation: Metrics for performance improvement. (United States)

    Galvagno, Samuel M; Mabry, Robert L; Maddry, Joseph; Kharod, Chetan U; Walrath, Benjamin D; Powell, Elizabeth; Shackelford, Stacy


    The US Army medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) community has maintained a reputation for high levels of success in transporting casualties from the point of injury to definitive care. This work served as a demonstration project to advance a model of quality assurance surveillance and medical direction for prehospital MEDEVAC providers within the Joint Trauma System. A retrospective interrupted time series analysis using prospectively collected data was performed as a process improvement project. Records were reviewed during two distinct periods: 2009 and 2014 to 2015. MEDEVAC records were matched to outcomes data available in the Department of Defense Trauma Registry. Abstracted deidentified data were reviewed for specific outcomes, procedures, and processes of care. Descriptive statistics were applied as appropriate. A total of 1,008 patients were included in this study. Nine quality assurance metrics were assessed. These metrics were: airway management, management of hypoxemia, compliance with a blood transfusion protocol, interventions for hypotensive patients, quality of battlefield analgesia, temperature measurement and interventions, proportion of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients with hypoxemia and/or hypotension, proportion of traumatic brain injury patients with an appropriate assessment, and proportion of missing data. Overall survival in the subset of patients with outcomes data available in the Department of Defense Trauma Registry was 97.5%. The data analyzed for this study suggest overall high compliance with established tactical combat casualty care guidelines. In the present study, nearly 7% of patients had at least one documented oxygen saturation of less than 90%, and 13% of these patients had no documentation of any intervention for hypoxemia, indicating a need for training focus on airway management for hypoxemia. Advances in battlefield analgesia continued to evolve over the period when data for this study was collected. Given the inherent high

  6. Theoretical and experimental validation of evacuated tubes directly coupled with solar still (United States)

    Panchal, H. N.; Thakkar, H.


    Experimental study of evacuated tubes coupled solar still in the climatic conditions of Mehsana, a region of North Gujarat, India during summer and winter climate conditions has been made. Experimental setup was made by authors. Fourteen double-walled hard borosilicate glass tubes have been used. Evacuated tubes were inclined at angle of 45° from horizontal. Outer tubes of evacuated tubes were transparent, inner tubes were coated with a selective coating of Al-Ni/Al compound for better solar radiation absorption and minimum emittance. It has been shown that evacuated tube attachments to the solar still increased the water temperature inside the solar still for increment in the generation of distillate output. Evacuated tubes coupled solar still is not only produce distilled water during sunshine hours, but also off-sunshine hours due to heat storage effect. For the validation of the experimental results, a theoretical model is proposed based on the fundamentals of heat and mass transfer equations for solar still glass cover, water in basin and basin bottom. Two main statistical parameters—root mean square error and mean bias error—were calculated to compare the results of experiments and theoretical analysis. Closed matching of the experimental and theoretical results has been found.

  7. Health ramifications of the Gush Katif evacuation. (United States)

    Kory, Ronen; Carney, Alon; Naimer, Sody


    Following the 2005 evacuation of Gush Katif, a community of Jewish settlements located in the greater Gaza Strip, many evacuees reported a deterioration in their health status. To determine if and to what degree the evacuation of Gush Katif caused a worsening in the health status of the evacuees. In this retrospective cohort study we assessed the medical records of 2962 evacuees for changes in prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and ischemic heart disease in the period beginning 1 year before and ending 5 years after the evacuation. The findings were compared to those for the general israeli population. A questionnaire was distributed to 64 individuals to assess lifestyle and social change. An increase in diabetes and hypertension was found in men aged 45-64. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus in the 45-54 male group rose from 8.7% in 2004 to 12.6% in 2007 to 18.7% in 2010; in the 55-64 age group it rose from 24.6% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2007 to 32.9% in 2010. Hypertension in 45-64 year old men rose from 27.1% in 2004 to 35.12% in 2010. The increases in diabetes were significant and higher than those in the general population. The increases in hypertension were of similar magnitude. The prevalence of heart disease did not change and is similar to that in the general population. The questionnaire sample showed an increase in depression and overweight. The Gush Katif evacuation appears to be associated with increased morbidity of chronic disease. This may be attributed to any of several mechanisms, with unemployment, depression, inactivity and overweight playing significant roles. Preventive medical interventions and measures should be employed to screen and treat this population which underwent a major stressful event and as a result seem at greater risk than their peers.

  8. Modeling cellular systems

    CERN Document Server

    Matthäus, Franziska; Pahle, Jürgen


    This contributed volume comprises research articles and reviews on topics connected to the mathematical modeling of cellular systems. These contributions cover signaling pathways, stochastic effects, cell motility and mechanics, pattern formation processes, as well as multi-scale approaches. All authors attended the workshop on "Modeling Cellular Systems" which took place in Heidelberg in October 2014. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and experts in the field, but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

  9. Evacuation exercise at the CERN Kindergarten

    CERN Document Server


    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector. The fire brigade checked that the buil...

  10. Dynamic Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin Dan ŞANDOR


    Full Text Available System Dynamics was introduced by Jay W. Forrester in the 1960s. Since then the methodology was adopted in many areas of natural or social sciences. This article tries to present briefly how this methodology works, both as Systems Thinking and as Modelling with Vensim computer software.

  11. Laboratory evaluation of 10 heat and moisture exchangers using simulated aeromedical evacuation conditions. (United States)

    Suliman, Huda S; Fecura, Stephen E; Baskin, Jonathan; Kalns, John E


    Heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) are used for airway humidification in mechanically ventilated patients and have been evaluated only under hospital conditions. U.S. Air Force aeromedical evacuation transports are performed under rugged conditions further complicated by the cold and dry environment in military aircrafts, and HMEs are used to provide airway humidification for patients. This study evaluated 10 commercial HMEs using a test system that simulated aeromedical evacuation conditions. Although the American National Standards Institute recommends inspired air to be at an absolute humidity value of > or = 30 mg/L for mechanically ventilated patients, the highest absolute humidity by any HME was approximately 20 mg/L. Although none of the HMEs were able to maintain a temperature high enough to achieve the humidity standard of the American National Standards Institute, the clinical significance of this standard may be less important than the relative humidity maintained in the respired air, especially on evacuation flights of short duration.

  12. Direct-Steam Linear Fresnel Performance Model for NREL's System Advisor Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, M. J.; Zhu, G.


    This paper presents the technical formulation and demonstrated model performance results of a new direct-steam-generation (DSG) model in NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). The model predicts the annual electricity production of a wide range of system configurations within the DSG Linear Fresnel technology by modeling hourly performance of the plant in detail. The quasi-steady-state formulation allows users to investigate energy and mass flows, operating temperatures, and pressure drops for geometries and solar field configurations of interest. The model includes tools for heat loss calculation using either empirical polynomial heat loss curves as a function of steam temperature, ambient temperature, and wind velocity, or a detailed evacuated tube receiver heat loss model. Thermal losses are evaluated using a computationally efficient nodal approach, where the solar field and headers are discretized into multiple nodes where heat losses, thermal inertia, steam conditions (including pressure, temperature, enthalpy, etc.) are individually evaluated during each time step of the simulation. This paper discusses the mathematical formulation for the solar field model and describes how the solar field is integrated with the other subsystem models, including the power cycle and optional auxiliary fossil system. Model results are also presented to demonstrate plant behavior in the various operating modes.

  13. A grouping method based on grid density and relationship for crowd evacuation simulation (United States)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Hong; Liu, Guang-peng; Li, Liang; Moore, Philip; Hu, Bin


    Psychological factors affect the movement of people in the competitive or panic mode of evacuation, in which the density of pedestrians is relatively large and the distance among them is small. In this paper, a crowd is divided into groups according to their social relations to simulate the actual movement of crowd evacuation more realistically and increase the attractiveness of the group based on social force model. The force of group attraction is the synthesis of two forces; one is the attraction of the individuals generated by their social relations to gather, and the other is that of the group leader to the individuals within the group to ensure that the individuals follow the leader. The synthetic force determines the trajectory of individuals. The evacuation process is demonstrated using the improved social force model. In the improved social force model, the individuals with close social relations gradually present a closer and coordinated action while following the leader. In this paper, a grouping algorithm is proposed based on grid density and relationship via computer simulation to illustrate the features of the improved social force model. The definition of the parameters involved in the algorithm is given, and the effect of relational value on the grouping is tested. Reasonable numbers of grids and weights are selected. The effectiveness of the algorithm is shown through simulation experiments. A simulation platform is also established using the proposed grouping algorithm and the improved social force model for crowd evacuation simulation.

  14. Evacuation in emergencies: An annotated guide to research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.


    The purpose of this literature review was to explore the relevant sources of knowledge regarding evacuation related issues among recent work published in the social sciences and emergency planning fields. In organizing the material, we looked primarily for articles that included either a theoretical or empirical basis for the findings. By empirical, we mean that the findings were based on data taken from actual research gained through surveys, questionnaires, interviews or a combination of these, and the use of secondary sources. The theoretical material consisted of work that built on past research or which explored the use of models. Some conceptual work, raising issues not covered by the general format, were included if they attempted to synthesize aspects of the literature now segmented or which asked additional questions about topics related to but not necessarily within the strict realm of research studies. The material was divided as to the emphasis placed on the individual or the organizational level of behavior. Empirically the individual, family or household response is easier to assess because of the bias that may intrude when individuals of organizations or agencies involved in the evacuation process are interviewed regarding their official status. The annotations of the literature as well as the specific key findings from each study, where appropriate, are organized by hazard type. An author index is provided.

  15. An analysis of surgical smoke plume components, capture, and evacuation. (United States)

    Schultz, Leonard


    Chronic exposure to surgical smoke can transmit viruses; lead to respiratory illness; and increase the risk of more serious conditions, including Alzheimer disease, collagen and cardiac diseases, and cancer. Despite this, surgical smoke plume capture and evacuation devices are often used sporadically or not at all, and do not necessarily reduce costs per procedure. In addition, the current choices for smoke plume capture are varied, and health care providers may make decisions about what type of method to use based on marketing materials rather than facts, leaving most clinicians and managers frustrated and cynical about supporting the effort to capture surgical smoke plume. This article presents current data and information that purchasing teams can use to help choose the best available technology for their practice patterns. It also provides analysis to help those responsible for choosing smoke evacuation systems make rational decisions in their quest to provide a clean, safe environment in the OR. Copyright © 2014 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Boccara, Nino


    Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

  17. Risk-based personal emergency response plan under hazardous gas leakage: Optimal information dissemination and regional evacuation in metropolises (United States)

    Zhang, N.; Ni, X. Y.; Huang, H.; Duarte, M.


    Knowledge on the characteristics of regional evacuation based on optimal information dissemination in hazardous gas leakage in metropolises plays a critical role. We established a risk analysis model for residents combining optimal emergency information dissemination and evacuation simulation in order to guide residents to make appropriate personal emergency response plan in hazardous gas leakage. The model was developed considering eight influencing factors, type and flow rate of hazardous gas, location of leakage source, wind speed and direction, information acquirement time, leakage duration, state of window (open/closed), and personal inhalation. Using Beijing as a case study, we calculated the risk of all grids and people and also obtained the three-dimensional special risk distribution. Through the microcosmic personal evacuation simulation in different condition, detailed data were obtained to analyze personal decision-making. We found that residents who stay near to the leakage source had better stay at home because of high concentration of hazardous leakage on their evacuation route. Instead of evacuation, staying at home and adopting optimal stay plan is very efficient if residents can receive the emergency information before the hazardous gas totally dispersed. For people who lived far from leakage source, evacuation is usually a good choice because they have longer time to avoid high-concentration hazardous gas.

  18. Mechanical Systems, Classical Models

    CERN Document Server

    Teodorescu, Petre P


    This second volume of Mechanical Systems, Classical Models, deals with the dynamics of systems consisting of discrete particles as well as continuous systems. While differences between these models are highlighted, the generality of the proofs and corresponding computations yields results that are expressed in a common form for both discrete and continuous systems. The author explains in detail all important aspects of the science of mechanics, regarded as a natural science, and shows how they are useful in understanding important natural phenomena and solving problems of interest in applied and engineering sciences. A large variety of problems are analyzed, from the traditional to more recent ones, such as the dynamics of rigid solids with variable mass. Professor Teodorescu has spent more that fifty years as a Professor of Mechanics at the University of Bucharest and this book relies on the extensive literature on the subject as well as the author's original contributions. Audience: students and researchers...

  19. What is the appropriate radiation level for evacuations?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuttler, J.M., E-mail: [Cuttler & Associates Inc., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)


    This commentary reviews the international radiation protection policy that resulted in the evacuation of more than 90,000 residents from areas near the Fukushima Daiichi NPS and the enormous expenditures to protect them against a hypothetical risk of cancer. The basis for the precautionary measures is shown to be invalid; the radiation level chosen for evacuation is not conservative. The actions caused unnecessary fear and suffering. An appropriate level for evacuation is recommended. Radical changes to the ICRP recommendations are long overdue.

  20. Modeling the earth system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ojima, D. [ed.


    The 1990 Global Change Institute (GCI) on Earth System Modeling is the third of a series organized by the Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies to look in depth at particular issues critical to developing a better understanding of the earth system. The 1990 GCI on Earth System Modeling was organized around three themes: defining critical gaps in the knowledge of the earth system, developing simplified working models, and validating comprehensive system models. This book is divided into three sections that reflect these themes. Each section begins with a set of background papers offering a brief tutorial on the subject, followed by working group reports developed during the institute. These reports summarize the joint ideas and recommendations of the participants and bring to bear the interdisciplinary perspective that imbued the institute. Since the conclusion of the 1990 Global Change Institute, research programs, nationally and internationally, have moved forward to implement a number of the recommendations made at the institute, and many of the participants have maintained collegial interactions to develop research projects addressing the needs identified during the two weeks in Snowmass.

  1. A generic framework for tsunami evacuation planning (United States)

    Scheer, Stefan J.; Varela, Vassiliki; Eftychidis, George

    Tsunami preparedness is fundamentally enhanced having available a comprehensive catalogue of procedures to be applied one by one thus ensuring a fully working evacuation plan over time. All these procedures are grouped into three basic steps to be performed subsequently: a first step in order to generate a fully valid first instance of an evacuation plan, a second step needed to install and to disseminate the evacuation plan, and a third step to deploy, integrate and maintain the plan in a long-term. The application of each procedure requires input from previously applied procedures as well as other input to be obtained from scientific insights (expected wave height, expected arrival time of the first tsunami wave) obtainable through the analysis of realistic scenarios. The output of each procedure may trigger other procedures (within the current step or by going back towards a procedure of a previous step). Thus the whole methodology mirrors a nested and recursive approach. Though the whole methodology is based on the use of dedicated tools (GIS tools, simulation tools) it should also be applicable by decision makers not having available the full range of such tools. In such cases responsible stakeholders have to switch to a more qualitative approach by using some rules of thumb or just normal logical thinking. Proposing this kind of framework it clearly addresses the needs of many decision makers in the world in enhancing the tsunami preparedness in their communities. First tests along some Mediterranean communities have shown the applicability of realistic scenarios thus producing inundation and further maps with which all other procedures of this framework could subsequently be worked out.

  2. Designing a model of patient tracking system for natural disaster in Iran (United States)

    Tavakoli, Nahid; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Safdari, Reza; Keyvanara, Mahmoud


    CONTEXT: Disaster patient tracking consists of identifying and registering patients, recording data on their medical conditions, settings priorities for evacuation of scene, locating the patients from scene to health care centers and then till completion of treatment and discharge. AIM: The aim of this study was to design a model of patient tracking system for natural disaster in Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This applied study was conducted in two steps in 2016. First, data on disaster patient tracking systems used in selected countries were collected from library-printed and electronic references and then compared. Next, a preliminary model of disaster patient tracking system was provided using these systems and validated by Delphi technique and focus group. The data of the first step were analyzed by content analysis and those of the second step by descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Analysis of the comments of key information persons in three Delphi rounds, consisting of national experts, yielded three themes, i.e., content, function, and technology, ten subthemes, and 127 components, with consensus rate of over 75%, to provide a disaster patient tracking system for Iran. CONCLUSION: In Iran, there is no comprehensive process to manage the data on disaster patients. Offering a patient tracking system can be considered a humanitarian and effective measure to promote the process of identifying, caring for, evacuating, and transferring patients as well as documenting and following up their medical and location conditions from scene till completion of the treatment. PMID:28852666

  3. Mechanical Systems, Classical Models

    CERN Document Server

    Teodorescu, Petre P


    This third volume completes the Work Mechanical Systems, Classical Models. The first two volumes dealt with particle dynamics and with discrete and continuous mechanical systems. The present volume studies analytical mechanics. Topics like Lagrangian and Hamiltonian mechanics, the Hamilton-Jacobi method, and a study of systems with separate variables are thoroughly discussed. Also included are variational principles and canonical transformations, integral invariants and exterior differential calculus, and particular attention is given to non-holonomic mechanical systems. The author explains in detail all important aspects of the science of mechanics, regarded as a natural science, and shows how they are useful in understanding important natural phenomena and solving problems of interest in applied and engineering sciences. Professor Teodorescu has spent more than fifty years as a Professor of Mechanics at the University of Bucharest and this book relies on the extensive literature on the subject as well as th...

  4. Pedestrian Dynamics Feedback Control of Crowd Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Kachroo, Pushkin P.E; Al-nasur, Sadeq J; Shende, Apoorva


    Effective evacuation of people from closed spaces is an extremely important topic, since it can save real lives in emergency situations that can be brought about by natural and human made disasters. Usually there are static maps posted at various places at buildings that illustrate routes that should be taken during emergencies. However, when disasters happen, some of these routes might not be valid because of structural problems due to the disaster itself and more importantly because of the distribution of congestion of people spread over the area. The average flow of traffic depends on the traffic density. Therefore, if all the people follow the same route, or follow a route without knowing the congestion situation, they can end up being part of the congestion which results in very low flow rate or worse a traffic jam. Hence it becomes extremely important to design evacuations that inform people how fast and in which direction to move based on real-time information obtained about the people distribution usi...

  5. Means of escape provisions and evacuation simulation of public building in Malaysia and Singapore (United States)

    Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Taib, Nooriati; Ying, Choo Siew


    The Uniform Building By-law 1984 of Malaysia is the legal document governing fire safety requirements in buildings. Its prescriptive nature has made the requirements out dated from the viewpoint of current performance based approach in most developed countries. The means of escape provisions is a critical requirement to safeguard occupants' safety in fire especially in public buildings. As stipulated in the UBBL 1984, the means of escape provisions includes sufficient escape routes, travel distance, protection of escape routes, etc. designated as means to allow occupants to escape within a safe period of time. This research aims at investigating the effectiveness of those provisions in public buildings during evacuation process involving massive crowd during emergencies. This research includes a scenario-based study on evacuation processes using two software i.e. PyroSim, a crowd modelling software to conduct smoke study and Pathfinder to stimulate evacuation model of building in Malaysia and Singapore as comparative study. The results show that the buildings used as case study were designed according to Malaysian UBBL 1984 and Singapore Firecode, 2013 respectively provide relative safe means of escape. The simulations of fire and smoke and coupled with simulation of evacuation have demonstrated that although there are adequate exits designated according to fire requirements, the impact of the geometry of atriums on the behavior of fire and smoke have significant effect on escape time especially for unfamiliar user of the premises.

  6. The evacuation of cairns hospitals due to severe tropical cyclone Yasi. (United States)

    Little, Mark; Stone, Theona; Stone, Richard; Burns, Jan; Reeves, Jim; Cullen, Paul; Humble, Ian; Finn, Emmeline; Aitken, Peter; Elcock, Mark; Gillard, Noel


    On February 2, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, the largest cyclone to cross the Australian coast and a system the size of Hurricane Katrina, threatened the city of Cairns. As a result, the Cairns Base Hospital (CBH) and Cairns Private Hospital (CPH) were both evacuated, the hospitals were closed, and an alternate emergency medical center was established in a sports stadium 15 km from the Cairns central business district. This article describes the events around the evacuation of 356 patients, staff, and relatives to Brisbane (approximately 1,700 km away by road), closure of the hospitals, and the provision of a temporary emergency medical center for 28 hours during the height of the cyclone. Our experience highlights the need for adequate and exercised hospital evacuation plans; the need for clear command and control with identified decision-makers; early decision-making on when to evacuate; having good communication systems with redundancy; ensuring that patients are adequately identified and tracked and have their medications and notes; ensuring adequate staff, medications, and oxygen for holding patients; and planning in detail the alternate medical facility safety and its role, function, and equipment. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  7. Real-Time Traffic Information for Emergency Evacuation Operations: Phase A Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzese, Oscar [ORNL; Zhang, Li [Mississippi State University (MSU); Mahmoud, Anas M. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Lascurain, Mary Beth [ORNL; Wen, Yi [Mississippi State University (MSU)


    There are many instances in which it is possible to plan ahead for an emergency evacuation (e.g., an explosion at a chemical processing facility). For those cases, if an accident (or an attack) were to happen, then the best evacuation plan for the prevailing network and weather conditions would be deployed. In other cases (e.g., the derailment of a train transporting hazardous materials), there may not be any previously developed plan to be implemented and decisions must be made ad-hoc on how to proceed with an emergency evacuation. In both situations, the availability of real-time traffic information plays a critical role in the management of the evacuation operations. To improve public safety during a vehicular emergency evacuation it is necessary to detect losses of road capacity (due to incidents, for example) as early as possible. Once these bottlenecks are identified, re-routing strategies must be determined in real-time and deployed in the field to help dissipate the congestion and increase the efficiency of the evacuation. Due to cost constraints, only large urban areas have traffic sensor deployments that permit access to some sort of real-time traffic information; any evacuation taking place in any other areas of the country would have to proceed without real-time traffic information. The latter was the focus of this SERRI/DHS (Southeast Region Research Initiative/Department of Homeland Security) sponsored project. That is, the main objective on the project was to improve the operations during a vehicular emergency evacuation anywhere by using newly developed real-time traffic-information-gathering technologies to assess traffic conditions and therefore to potentially detect incidents on the main evacuation routes. Phase A of the project consisted in the development and testing of a prototype system composed of sensors that are engineered in such a way that they can be rapidly deployed in the field where and when they are needed. Each one of these sensors

  8. Computer simulation-based framework for transportation evacuation in major trip generator. (United States)


    Since emergencies including both natural disasters and man-made incidents, are happening more and more : frequently, evacuation, especially transportation evacuation, is becoming a hot research focus in recent years. : Currently, transportation evacu...

  9. Gastric evacuation, feeding periodicity and daily ration of Sardine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimated gastric evacuation rates ranged between 0.05 and 0.29.h-1, with mean values of 0.09 and 0.27.h-1 for fish fed zooplankton and phytoplankton respectively. Despite this large range, no significant relationships were found between gastric evacuation rate and fish size, temperature, food particle size or meal size.

  10. 14 CFR 121.570 - Airplane evacuation capability. (United States)


    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airplane evacuation capability. 121.570... REQUIREMENTS: DOMESTIC, FLAG, AND SUPPLEMENTAL OPERATIONS Flight Operations § 121.570 Airplane evacuation capability. (a) No person may cause an airplane carrying passengers to be moved on the surface, take off, or...

  11. Theoretical and experimental investigations of Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon


    Four different marketed Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors have been investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The advantages of the investigated solar collectors compared to normal flat plate collectors were elucidated.......Four different marketed Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors have been investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The advantages of the investigated solar collectors compared to normal flat plate collectors were elucidated....

  12. Everscape : The Making of a Disaster Evacuation Experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doirado, E.; Van den Berg, M.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Prendinger, H.


    Disaster evacuation studies are important but difficult or impossible to conduct in the real world. Evacuation simulation in a virtual world can be an important tool to obtain data on the escape and choice behavior of people. However, to obtain accurate “realistic” data, the engagement of

  13. Theoretical flow investigations of an all glass evacuated tubular collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Louise Jivan; Furbo, Simon


    Heat transfer and flow structures inside all glass evacuated tubular collectors for different operating conditions are investigated by means of computational fluid dynamics. The investigations are based on a collector design with horizontal tubes connected to a vertical 14 manifold channel. Three...... different tube lengths varying from 0.59 in to 1.47 in have been modelled with five different inlet mass flow rates varying from 0.05 kg/min to 10 kg/min with a constant inlet temperature of 333 K. Under these operating conditions the results showed that: the collector with the shortest tube length achieved...... the highest efficiency, the optimal inlet flow rate was around 0.4-1 kg/min, the flow structures in the glass tubes were relatively uninfluenced by the inlet flow rate, Generally, the results showed only small variations in the efficiencies. This indicates that the collector design is well working for most...

  14. Modeling Novo Nordisk Production Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, Thomas Dedenroth


    This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'.......This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'....

  15. Evacuation simulation using Hybrid Space Discretisation and Application to Large Underground Rail Tunnel Station (United States)

    Chooramun, N.; Lawrence, P. J.; Galea, E. R.


    In all evacuation simulation tools, the space through which agents navigate and interact is represented by one the following methods, namely Coarse regions, Fine nodes and Continuous regions. Each of the spatial representation methods has its benefits and limitations. For instance, the Coarse approach allows simulations to be processed very rapidly, but is unable to represent the interactions of the agents from an individual perspective; the Continuous approach provides a detailed representation of agent movement and interaction but suffers from relatively poor computational performance. The Fine nodal approach presents a compromise between the Continuous and Coarse approaches such that it allows agent interaction to be modelled while providing good computational performance. Our approach for representing space in an evacuation simulation tool differs such that it allows evacuation simulations to be run using a combination of Coarse regions, Fine nodes and Continuous regions. This approach, which we call Hybrid Spatial Discretisation (HSD), is implemented within the buildingEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The HSD incorporates the benefits of each of the spatial representation methods whilst providing an optimal environment for representing agent movement and interaction. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the HSD through its application to a moderately large case comprising of an underground rail tunnel station with a population of 2,000 agents.

  16. Experimental study on small group behavior and crowd dynamics in a tall office building evacuation (United States)

    Ma, Yaping; Li, Lihua; Zhang, Hui; Chen, Tao


    It is well known that a large percentage of occupants in a building are evacuated together with their friends, families, and officemates, especially in China. Small group behaviors are therefore critical for crowd movement. This paper aims to study the crowd dynamic considering different social relations and the impacts of small groups on crowd dynamics in emergency evacuation. Three experiments are conducted in an 11-storey office building. In the first two experiments, all participants are classmates and know each other well. They are evacuated as individuals or pairs. In the third experiment, social relations among the participants are complex. Participants consist of 8 families, 6 lovers and several individuals. Space-time features, speed characteristics and density-speed relations for each experiment are analyzed and compared. Results conclude that small group behaviors can make positive impacts on crowd dynamics when evacuees know each other and are cooperative. This conclusion is also testified by four verified experiments. In the third experiment, speeds of evacuees are lowest. Small groups form automatically with the presence of intimate social relations. Small groups in this experiment slow down the average speed of the crowd and make disturbance on the crowd flow. Small groups in this case make negative impacts on the movement of the crowd. It is because that evacuees do not know each other and they are competitive to each other. Characteristics of different types of small groups are also investigated. Experimental data can provide foundational parameters for evacuation model development and are helpful for building designers.

  17. A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes (United States)

    Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai


    Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

  18. Acute respiratory symptoms and evacuation-related behavior after exposure to chlorine gas leakage. (United States)

    Han, Sung-Woo; Choi, Won-Jun; Yi, Min-Kee; Song, Seng-Ho; Lee, Dong-Hoon; Han, Sang-Hwan


    A study was performed on the accidental chlorine gas leakage that occurred in a factory of printed circuit boards manufactured without chlorine. Health examination was performed for all 52 workers suspected of exposure to chlorine gas, and their evacuation-related behaviors were observed in addition to analyzing the factors that affected the duration of their acute respiratory symptoms. Behavioral characteristics during the incidence of the accidental chlorine gas leakage, the estimated time of exposure, and the duration of subjective acute respiratory symptoms were investigated. In addition, clinical examination, chest radiography, and dental erosion test were performed. As variables that affected the duration of respiratory symptoms, dose group, body weight, age, sex, smoking, work period, and wearing a protective gear were included and analyzed by using the Cox proportional hazard model. Of 47 workers exposed to chlorine gas, 36 (77 %) developed more than one subjective symptom. The duration of the subjective symptoms according to exposure level significantly differed, with a median of 1 day (range, 0-5 days) in the low-exposure group and 2 days (range, 0-25 days) in the high-exposure group. Among the variables that affected the duration of the acute respiratory symptoms, which were analyzed by using the Cox proportional hazard model, only exposure level was significant (hazard ratio 2.087, 95 % CI = 1.119, 3.890). Regarding the evacuation-related behaviors, 22 workers (47 %) voluntarily evacuated to a safety zone immediately after recognizing the accidental exposure, but 25 workers (43 %) delayed evacuation until the start of mandatory evacuation (min 5, max 25 min). The duration of the subjective acute respiratory symptoms significantly differed between the low- and high-exposure groups. Among the 27 workers in the high-exposure group, 17 misjudged the toxicity after being aware of the gas leakage, which is a relatively high number.

  19. Evacuation of intracerebral hemorrhages by neuroendoscopy with transparent sheath. Experimental study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Otero-Rodriguez


    Full Text Available Objectives: Endoscopic evacuation of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH has been developed in order to reduce the tissue injury that conventional craniotomy could generate. Experimental studies are important to assess the effectiveness of the technique and its modifications. The objectives of this study are to develop in pig an experimental model of endoscopic evacuation of ICHs, to assess effectiveness of surgical evacuation, and to evaluate a new transparent sheath as complement to the endoscopy. Methods: Autologous blood was infused into the frontal lobe white matter in 16 pigs. In the problem group, endoscopic evacuation was performed with the aid of a new transparent sheath, which has outer and inner sheaths with blunt and closed finals. Pigs were sacrificed at 4 h, 24 h and 5 days. The volumes of hematoma and histopathological features were determined. Results: Residual volume of the problem group was significantly 70.09% lower than in control group, without significant differences in injected volumes, in percentage of subarachnoid hemorrhage, and in time interval from hematoma induction to pig´s death. The vital reaction after hemorrhage was similar in both groups. Conclusions: The experimental model developed is useful to assess endoscopic evacuation of ICHs. The endoscopy is an effective technique in the treatment of ICHs, without increasing the vital reaction secondary to hematoma. The new transparent sheath increases the visualization of surgical field and allows a continuous visual control since the beginning of the procedure. Its closed final prevents unwanted injury of the brain by the instruments used to remove the hematoma.

  20. System of systems modeling and analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, James E.; Anderson, Dennis James; Longsine, Dennis E. (Intera, Inc., Austin, TX); Shirah, Donald N.


    This report documents the results of an LDRD program entitled 'System of Systems Modeling and Analysis' that was conducted during FY 2003 and FY 2004. Systems that themselves consist of multiple systems (referred to here as System of Systems or SoS) introduce a level of complexity to systems performance analysis and optimization that is not readily addressable by existing capabilities. The objective of the 'System of Systems Modeling and Analysis' project was to develop an integrated modeling and simulation environment that addresses the complex SoS modeling and analysis needs. The approach to meeting this objective involved two key efforts. First, a static analysis approach, called state modeling, has been developed that is useful for analyzing the average performance of systems over defined use conditions. The state modeling capability supports analysis and optimization of multiple systems and multiple performance measures or measures of effectiveness. The second effort involves time simulation which represents every system in the simulation using an encapsulated state model (State Model Object or SMO). The time simulation can analyze any number of systems including cross-platform dependencies and a detailed treatment of the logistics required to support the systems in a defined mission.

  1. Glass heat pipe evacuated tube solar collector (United States)

    McConnell, Robert D.; Vansant, James H.


    A glass heat pipe is adapted for use as a solar energy absorber in an evacuated tube solar collector and for transferring the absorbed solar energy to a working fluid medium or heat sink for storage or practical use. A capillary wick is formed of granular glass particles fused together by heat on the inside surface of the heat pipe with a water glass binder solution to enhance capillary drive distribution of the thermal transfer fluid in the heat pipe throughout the entire inside surface of the evaporator portion of the heat pipe. Selective coatings are used on the heat pipe surface to maximize solar absorption and minimize energy radiation, and the glass wick can alternatively be fabricated with granular particles of black glass or obsidian.

  2. From Numeric Models to Granular System Modeling


    Pedrycz, Witold


    In the era of advanced methodologies and practices of system modeling, we are faced with ever growing challenges of building models of complex systems that are in full rapport with reality. These challenges are multifaceted. Human centricity becomes of paramount relevance in system modeling and because of this models need to be customized and easily interpretable. More and more visibly, experimental data and knowledge of varying quality being directly acquired from experts have to be efficien...

  3. Influence of Post-disaster Evacuation on Incidence of Metabolic Syndrome. (United States)

    Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Nagai, Masato; Fukuma, Shingo; Ohira, Tetsuya; Hosoya, Mitsuaki; Yasumura, Seiji; Satoh, Hiroaki; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Sakai, Akira; Ohtsuru, Akira; Kawasaki, Yukihiko; Takahashi, Atsushi; Ozasa, Kotaro; Kobashi, Gen; Kamiya, Kenji; Yamashita, Shunichi; Fukuhara, Shun-Ichi; Ohto, Hitoshi; Abe, Masafumi


    After the Great East Japan Earthquake, over 160,000 residents near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant were forced to evacuate due to a nuclear accident. Health problems in these evacuees have since become major issues. We examined the association between evacuation and incidence of metabolic syndrome (METS) among residents in Fukushima. We conducted a cohort study among residents aged 40-74 years without METS at the time of the disaster in Fukushima. Among 20,269 residents who met the inclusion criteria before the disaster, 8,547 residents (3,697 men and 4,850 women; follow-up proportion: 42.2%) remained available for follow-up examinations after the disaster by the end of March 2013. The main outcome was incidence of METS, defined by guidelines from the Japanese committee, using data from the Comprehensive Health Check before and after the disaster. We divided participants by evacuation status and compared outcomes between groups. Using a logistic regression model, we estimated the odds ratio for incidence of METS, adjusting for potential confounders, age, gender, waist circumference, exercise habit, and alcohol consumption. Incidence of METS was higher in evacuees (men 19.2%, women 6.6%) than in non-evacuees (men 11.0%, women 4.6%). Evacuees had higher body mass index, waist circumference, triglycerides, and fasting plasma glucose after the disaster than non-evacuees. We found a significant association between evacuation and incidence of METS (adjusted odds ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval; 1.46-2.02). This is the first study to demonstrate that evacuation after a disaster is associated with increased incidence of METS.

  4. An analysis of evacuation options for nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tawil, J.J.; Strenge, D.L.; Schultz, R.W. [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States)


    In this report we consider the threat posed by the accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant. The objective is to establish relationships between radiation dose and the cost of evacuation under a wide variety of conditions. The dose can almost always be reduced by evacuating the population from a larger area. However, extending the evacuation zone outward will cause evacuation costs to increase. The purpose of this analysis was to provide the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a data base for evaluating whether implementation costs and risks averted could be used to justify evacuation at lower doses. The procedures used and results of these analyses are being made available as background information for use by others. We develop cost/dose relationships for 54 scenarios that are based upon the severity of the reactor accident, meteorological conditions during the release of radionuclides into the environment, and the angular width of the evacuation zone. The 54 scenarios are derived from combinations of three accident severity levels, six meteorological conditions and evacuation zone widths of 70{degree}, 90{degree}, and 180{degree}.

  5. Features and analyses of W7-X cryostat system FE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eeten, Paul van, E-mail:; Bräuer, Torsten; Bykov, Victor; Carls, Andre; Fellinger, Joris; Kallmeyer, J.P.


    The Wendelstein 7-X stellarator is presently under construction at the Max-Planck-Institute for Plasma Physics in Greifswald with the goal to verify that a stellarator magnetic confinement concept is a viable option for a fusion power plant. The main components of the W7-X cryostat system are the plasma vessel (PV), outer vessel (OV), ports, thermal insulation, vessel supports and the machine base (MB). The main task of the cryostat system is to provide an insulating vacuum for the cryogenic magnet system while allowing external access to the PV through ports for diagnostic, supply and heating systems. The cryostat is subjected to different types of loads during assembly, maintenance and operation. This ranges from basic weight loads from all installed components to mechanical, vacuum and thermal loads. To predict the behavior of the cryostat in terms of deformations, stresses and support load distribution a finite element (FE) global model has been created called the Global Model of the Cryostat System (GMCS). A complete refurbishment of the GM CS has been done in the last 2 years to prepare the model for future applications. This involved a complete mesh update of the model, an improvement of many model features, an update of the applied operational loads and boundary conditions as well as the creation of automatic post processing procedures. Currently the GMCS is used to support several significant assembly and commissioning steps of W7-X that involve the cryostat system, e.g. the removal of temporary supports beneath the MB, transfer of the PV from temporary to the final supports and evacuation of the cryostat. In the upcoming months the model will be used for further support of the commissioning of W7-X which includes the first evacuation of the PV.

  6. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures (United States)

    Bird, D. K.; Gisladottir, G.; Dominey-Howes, D.


    Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP), in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in this region. Our data can be used

  7. An Independent Assessment of Evacuation Time Estimates for A Peak Population Scenario in the Emergency Planning Zone of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Mclean, M. A.; Desrosiers, A. E.


    This study comprises two major tasks. First, it includes an independent assessment of the methods and assumptions used in calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) applicable to the general population for a peak population scenario in the emergency planning zone {EPZ) of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station. This consists of a review and analysis of previous work by Public Service of New Hampshire {PSNH) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as well as an independent calculation of evacuation times using the CLEAR model for the demographic data reported by PSNH. Secondly, this study includes independent estimations of evacuation time for the peak population scenario developed using demographic data prepared by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission {NRC). These evacuation time estimates are approximately 60% and 84% greater, respectively, than the estimate provided by PSNH for a simulataneous evacuation of the entire EPZ under peak conditions. The CLEAR model, which was developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory {PNL) under the sponsorship of the. NRC, was also used for these latter calculations. The results of this study reveal the importance of the assumptions used for calculating evacuation times. Because traffic routings and management plans have not been prepared for the area, the CLEAR calculations utilized indepdently prepared traffic routings and assumptions. A detailed analysis of the results suggests that the ETEs submitted by PSNH are consistent with the methods and assumptions which provide the bases for PSNH•s evacuation time estimates. Differences among evacuation time estimates stem largely from differences jn the assumed size of the evacuating population and the estimated effectiveness of traffic controls.

  8. Commentary on the appropriate radiation level for evacuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuttler, J.M. [Cuttler and Associates Inc., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)


    This commentary reviews the international radiation protection policy that resulted in the evacuation of more than 90,000 residents from areas near the Fukushima Daiichi NPS and the enormous expenditures to protect them against a hypothetical risk of cancer. The basis for the precautionary measures is shown to be invalid; the radiation level chosen for evacuation is not conservative. The actions caused unnecessary fear and suffering. An appropriate level for evacuation is recommended. Radical changes to the ICRP recommendations are long overdue. (author)

  9. Urgent Aeromedical Evacuation Network Capacity Planning (United States)


    flexible system (USAF, 2 Oct 2009). The following excerpt is from an AE success story within the publication. “The ability to use virtually any...the intent to model reality exactly. Most real world problems under study are complex and modeling aims to find a balance between assumptions and...ending in San Antonio. After treatment has been completed at the burn and rehab center, the patient then needs transportation back to their home

  10. Clinical decision modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyons-Weiler James


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision analysis techniques can be applied in complex situations involving uncertainty and the consideration of multiple objectives. Classical decision modeling techniques require elicitation of too many parameter estimates and their conditional (joint probabilities, and have not therefore been applied to the problem of identifying high-performance, cost-effective combinations of clinical options for diagnosis or treatments where many of the objectives are unknown or even unspecified. Methods We designed a Java-based software resource, the Clinical Decision Modeling System (CDMS, to implement Naïve Decision Modeling, and provide a use case based on published performance evaluation measures of various strategies for breast and lung cancer detection. Because cost estimates for many of the newer methods are not yet available, we assume equal cost. Our use case reveals numerous potentially high-performance combinations of clinical options for the detection of breast and lung cancer. Results Naïve Decision Modeling is a highly practical applied strategy which guides investigators through the process of establishing evidence-based integrative translational clinical research priorities. CDMS is not designed for clinical decision support. Inputs include performance evaluation measures and costs of various clinical options. The software finds trees with expected emergent performance characteristics and average cost per patient that meet stated filtering criteria. Key to the utility of the software is sophisticated graphical elements, including a tree browser, a receiver-operator characteristic surface plot, and a histogram of expected average cost per patient. The analysis pinpoints the potentially most relevant pairs of clinical options ('critical pairs' for which empirical estimates of conditional dependence may be critical. The assumption of independence can be tested with retrospective studies prior to the initiation of

  11. Are the dynamics of gastric evacuation of natural prey in a piscivorous flatfish different from what is going on in a gadoid? (United States)

    Krog, C; Andersen, N G


    Despite the fact that the stomach of turbot Psetta maxima is a curved tube that forms a half circle, it was demonstrated that gastric evacuation in this predatory flatfish fed natural prey closely followed the surface-dependent cylinder model developed from studies on gadoids with a straight stomach. Evacuation experiments were performed on two size groups of P. maxima fed sandeel Ammodytes tobianus as well as on P. maxima fed brown shrimp Crangon crangon at three different temperatures. This enabled the provision of a gastric evacuation model for studies on P. maxima, which takes into account the effects of the explanatory variables predator size, temperature, prey energy density and resistance of prey to the digestive processes in the stomach. Basically, the cylinder model predicts that a square-root function accurately describes gastric evacuation, which is inconsistent with the conclusion of a previous study on P. maxima that evacuation of A. tobianus is essentially linear with time. Use of the cylinder model to the values of the explanatory variables presented in the latter study, however, gave accurate predictions of the actually acquired evacuation data, which points to the generic value of the model.

  12. Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Or Should I Wait and See? Influences on Wildfire Evacuation Decisions. (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah; Wilson, Robyn; Konar, Avishek


    As climate change has contributed to longer fire seasons and populations living in fire-prone ecosystems increase, wildfires have begun to affect a growing number of people. As a result, interest in understanding the wildfire evacuation decision process has increased. Of particular interest is understanding why some people leave early, some choose to stay and defend their homes, and others wait to assess conditions before making a final decision. Individuals who tend to wait and see are of particular concern given the dangers of late evacuation. To understand what factors might influence different decisions, we surveyed homeowners in three areas in the United States that recently experienced a wildfire. The Protective Action Decision Model was used to identify a suite of factors previously identified as potentially relevant to evacuation decisions. Our results indicate that different beliefs about the efficacy of a particular response or action (evacuating or staying to defend), differences in risk attitudes, and emphasis on different cues to act (e.g., official warnings, environmental cues) are key factors underlying different responses. Further, latent class analysis indicates there are two general classes of individuals: those inclined to evacuate and those inclined to stay, and that a substantial portion of each class falls into the wait and see category. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Teaching case studies on emergency evacuation : final report (United States)


    Through the development of four Harvard Kennedy School case studies, this project explored the policy and institutional dimensions of emergency evacuation planning and implementation in two major metropolitan areas Houston and New Orleans. By pro...

  14. Theoretical Basis for the Design of a DWPF Evacuated Canister

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Routt, K.R.


    This report provides the theoretical bases for use of an evacuated canister for draining a glass melter. Design recommendations are also presented to ensure satisfactory performance in future tests of the concept.

  15. Fluid Transient Analysis During Priming of Evacuated Line (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Alak; Majumdar, Alok K.; Holt, Kimberley


    Pressure surges are critical in the design of spacecraft propellant feed lines. The pressure transients that occur during priming of feed lines are very important in the design and analysis of liquid propulsion systems. During the start-up of the propulsion system of a spacecraft, the process of filling of an evacuated pipeline is called priming. Priming can generate severe pressure peaks due to the slam (water hammer) of the propellant against a closed thruster valve. The downstream conditions strongly affect the pressure surge. In space systems, satellites, or interplanetary probes, the propellant lines are vacuum-pumped or filled with low pressure helium or nitrogen before the launch. Before operations, these lines are primed with a vaporizing liquid, sometimes in the presence of a non-condensable gas (NCG), which produces water hammer phenomena. The objective of the current study is to use a finite volume based network flow solver (Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, GFSSP) for the numerical simulation of Priming in (a) a straight feedline and (b) a flow network. The geometrical configurations and dimensions for the pipe and other components used for the current study are identical to experimental study of Prickett et al.

  16. Vacuum evacuated thermal storage in Sengenthal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuchs, B.; Hofbeck, K. [Georg-Simon-Ohm Hochschule Nuernberg (Germany). Fakultaet Allgemeinwissenschaften; Faulstich, M. [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Rohstoff- und Energietechnologie


    This paper describes a vacuum insulated and stratified thermal hot water storage which will be built in Sengenthal in March 2011. The thermal storage is loaded with different types of renewable energy sources, especially firewood and solar thermal energy. With the high efficient tank it is possible to reduce the carbon dioxide emission by 90% and reduce the thermal losses of the storage by 80%. Within the project in Sengenthal the vacuum evacuated storage saves expectedly about 7.500 Euro fuel costs each year without regarding the advance in prices. This fact is caused by the substitution of a gas boiler by using the described tank as a buffer tank within a local heating plant which is covered by a firewood boiler. The concrete problem of the local heating plant was the fact that the power of the firewood boiler is too low to cover the demand of a new building. Without the described thermal storage with vacuum insulation there would be a need of an additional gas boiler. (orig.)

  17. Records review of musculoskeletal injuries in aeromedical evacuation personnel. (United States)

    Serres, Jennifer L; Fouts, Brittany L; Dukes, Susan F; Maupin, Genny M; Wade, Molly E


    Aeromedical evacuation providers care for patients during air transport. By applying standard medical practices, oftentimes developed for ground care, these practitioners perform their mission duties under additional physical stress in this unique medical environment. Awkward postures and excessive forces are common occurrences among personnel operating in this domain. Additionally, anecdotal reports highlight the risk of developing musculoskeletal injuries for these providers. Currently, there is limited research focusing on musculoskeletal injuries in aeromedical evacuation providers. To determine the prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries and associated symptoms in aeromedical evacuation providers to understand the risk and burden of these injuries to military personnel. This study utilized a retrospective review of military medical records containing ICD-9 codes to investigate the incidence of musculoskeletal injuries within flight nurses and medical technicians compared to their non-flying counterparts from 2006 through 2011. Data were analyzed from 2013 through 2014. Although musculoskeletal injuries were identified within the test populations, results showed fewer injuries for aeromedical evacuation populations compared to non-aeromedical evacuation counterparts. One contributing factor may be a potential under-reporting of musculoskeletal injuries resulting from the fear of being placed on limited flying status. As flyers, aeromedical evacuation personnel must undergo yearly medical examinations and complete training courses that emphasize proper lifting techniques and physical requirements necessary for the safe and efficient transport of patients on various platforms. These additional requirements may create a healthy worker effect, likely contributing to lower musculoskeletal injuries. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Yi, E-mail: [School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu (China); Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong); Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit [Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong)


    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic. - Highlights: • Pedestrian density inside buildings has dual effects on evacuation. • Increased pedestrian density has a negative effect in cases of increased visibility. • Increased pedestrian density has a positive effect in cases of decreased visibility.

  19. Agent-Based Crowd Simulation Considering Emotion Contagion for Emergency Evacuation Problem (United States)

    Faroqi, H.; Mesgari, M.-S.


    During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Faroqi


    Full Text Available During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  1. Pembangunan Model Restaurant Management System


    Jingga, Fredy; Limantara, Natalia


    Model design for Restaurant Management System aims to help in restaurant business process, where Restaurant Management System (RMS) help the waitress and chef could interact each other without paper limitation. This Restaurant Management System Model develop using Agile Methodology and developed based on PHP Programming Langguage. The database management system is using MySQL. This web-based application model will enable the waitress and the chef to interact in realtime, from the time they a...

  2. Pembangunan Model Restaurant Management System


    Fredy Jingga; Natalia Limantara


    Model design for Restaurant Management System aims to help in restaurant business process, where Restaurant Management System (RMS) help the waitress and chef could interact each other without paper limitation.  This Restaurant Management System Model develop using Agile Methodology and developed based on PHP Programming Langguage. The database management system is using MySQL. This web-based application model will enable the waitress and the chef to interact in realtime, from the time they a...

  3. Integrating Regret Psychology to Travel Mode Choice for a Transit-Oriented Evacuation Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi An


    Full Text Available Facing the potential dangers from sudden disasters in urban cities, emergency administrators have to make an appropriate evacuation plan to mitigate negative consequences. However, little attention has been paid to evacuee real decision psychology when developing a strategy. The aim of this paper is to analyze evacuee mode choice behavior considering regret aversion psychology during evacuation. First, the utility-based and regret-based models are formulated to obtain evacuees’ preferences on travel mode choice, respectively. According to the data collected from the stated preference (SP survey on evacuee mode choice, the estimation results show that the regret-based model performs better than the utility model. Moreover, based on the estimates from behavioral analysis, the elasticities of evacuee mode choices are calculated, and transit strategy simulation is undertaken to investigate the influence on evacuee mode switching from private automobile to public transit. The results are expected to help emergency administrators to make a transit-oriented strategy for a sustainable evacuation plan, especially for the benefit of carless people.

  4. Energy System Modeling with REopt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpkins, Travis; Anderson, Kate; Cutler, Dylan; Olis, Dan; Elgqvist, Emma; DiOrio, Nick; Walker, Andy


    This poster details how REopt - NREL's software modeling platform for energy systems integration and optimization - can help to model energy systems. Some benefits of modeling with REopt include optimizing behind the meter storage for cost and resiliency, optimizing lab testing, optimizing dispatch of utility scale storage, and quantifying renewable energy impact on outage survivability.

  5. Modelling of wastewater systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Henrik

    to analyze and quantify the effect of the Aeration Tank Settling (ATS) operating mode, which is used during rain events. Furthermore, the model is used to propose a control algorithm for the phase lengths during ATS operation. The models are mainly formulated as state space model in continuous time...... with discrete-time observation equations. The state equations are thus expressed in stochastic differential equations. Hereby it is possible to use the maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate the parameters of the models. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the one-step ahead predictions that are used...... at modelling the fluxes in terms of the multiple correlation coefficient R2. The model of the SS concentrations in the aeration tanks of an alternating WWTP as well as in the effluent from the aeration tanks is a mass balance model based on measurements of SS in one aeration tank and in the common outlet...

  6. Wargame Simulation Theory and Evaluation Method for Emergency Evacuation of Residents from Urban Waterlogging Disaster Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Chen


    Full Text Available Urban waterlogging seriously threatens the safety of urban residents and properties. Wargame simulation research on resident emergency evacuation from waterlogged areas can determine the effectiveness of emergency response plans for high risk events at low cost. Based on wargame theory and emergency evacuation plans, we used a wargame exercise method, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects, to build an urban waterlogging disaster emergency shelter using a wargame exercise and evaluation model. The simulation was empirically tested in Daoli District of Harbin. The results showed that the wargame simulation scored 96.40 points, evaluated as good. From the simulation results, wargame simulation of urban waterlogging emergency procedures for disaster response can improve the flexibility and capacity for command, management and decision-making in emergency management departments.

  7. Wargame Simulation Theory and Evaluation Method for Emergency Evacuation of Residents from Urban Waterlogging Disaster Area. (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Sun, Yingyue; Liu, Xiaojing


    Urban waterlogging seriously threatens the safety of urban residents and properties. Wargame simulation research on resident emergency evacuation from waterlogged areas can determine the effectiveness of emergency response plans for high risk events at low cost. Based on wargame theory and emergency evacuation plans, we used a wargame exercise method, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects, to build an urban waterlogging disaster emergency shelter using a wargame exercise and evaluation model. The simulation was empirically tested in Daoli District of Harbin. The results showed that the wargame simulation scored 96.40 points, evaluated as good. From the simulation results, wargame simulation of urban waterlogging emergency procedures for disaster response can improve the flexibility and capacity for command, management and decision-making in emergency management departments.

  8. Community resilience and volcano hazard: the eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the faldas in Ecuador. (United States)

    Tobin, Graham A; Whiteford, Linda M


    Official response to explosive volcano hazards usually involves evacuation of local inhabitants to safe shelters. Enforcement is often difficult and problems can be exacerbated when major eruptions do not ensue. Families are deprived of livelihoods and pressure to return to hazardous areas builds. Concomitantly, prevailing socio-economic and political conditions limit activities and can influence vulnerability. This paper addresses these issues, examining an ongoing volcano hazard (Tungurahua) in Ecuador where contextual realities significantly constrain responses. Fieldwork involved interviewing government officials, selecting focus groups and conducting surveys of evacuees in four locations: a temporary shelter, a permanent resettlement, with returnees and with a control group. Differences in perceptions of risk and health conditions, and in the potential for economic recovery were found among groups with different evacuation experiences. The long-term goal is to develop a model of community resilience in long-term stress environments.

  9. Wargame Simulation Theory and Evaluation Method for Emergency Evacuation of Residents from Urban Waterlogging Disaster Area (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Sun, Yingyue; Liu, Xiaojing


    Urban waterlogging seriously threatens the safety of urban residents and properties. Wargame simulation research on resident emergency evacuation from waterlogged areas can determine the effectiveness of emergency response plans for high risk events at low cost. Based on wargame theory and emergency evacuation plans, we used a wargame exercise method, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects, to build an urban waterlogging disaster emergency shelter using a wargame exercise and evaluation model. The simulation was empirically tested in Daoli District of Harbin. The results showed that the wargame simulation scored 96.40 points, evaluated as good. From the simulation results, wargame simulation of urban waterlogging emergency procedures for disaster response can improve the flexibility and capacity for command, management and decision-making in emergency management departments. PMID:28009805

  10. Pediatric issues in disaster management, part 2: evacuation centers and family separation/reunification. (United States)

    Mace, Sharon E; Sharieff, Ghazala; Bern, Andrew; Benjamin, Lee; Burbulys, Dave; Johnson, Ramon; Schreiber, Merritt


    Although children and infants are likely to be victims in a disaster and are more vulnerable in a disaster than adults, disaster planning and management has often overlooked the specific needs of pediatric patients. We discuss key components of disaster planning and management for pediatric patients including emergency medical services, hospital/facility issues, evacuation centers, family separation/reunification, children with special healthcare needs, mental health issues, and overcrowding/surge capacity. Specific policy recommendations and an appendix with detailed practical information and algorithms are included. The first part of this three part series on pediatric issues in disaster management addresses the emergency medical system from the field to the hospital and surge capacity including the impact of crowding. The second part addresses the appropriate set up and functioning of evacuation centers and family separation and reunification. The third part deals with special patient populations: the special healthcare needs patient and mental health issues.

  11. Minimally Invasive Subcortical Parafascicular Transsulcal Access for Clot Evacuation (Mi SPACE for Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Ritsma


    Full Text Available Background. Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH is common and causes significant mortality and morbidity. To date, optimal medical and surgical intervention remains uncertain. A lack of definitive benefit for operative management may be attributable to adverse surgical effect, collateral tissue injury. This is particularly relevant for ICH in dominant, eloquent cortex. Minimally invasive surgery (MIS offers the potential advantage of reduced collateral damage. MIS utilizing a parafascicular approach has demonstrated such benefit for intracranial tumor resection. Methods. We present a case of dominant hemisphere spontaneous ICH evacuated via the minimally invasive subcortical parafascicular transsulcal access clot evacuation (Mi SPACE model. We use this report to introduce Mi SPACE and to examine the application of this novel MIS paradigm. Case Presentation. The featured patient presented with a left temporal ICH and severe global aphasia. The hematoma was evacuated via the Mi SPACE approach. Postoperative reassessments showed significant improvement. At two months, bedside language testing was normal. MRI tractography confirmed limited collateral injury. Conclusions. This case illustrates successful application of the Mi SPACE model to ICH in dominant, eloquent cortex and subcortical regions. MRI tractography illustrates collateral tissue preservation. Safety and feasibility studies are required to further assess this promising new therapeutic paradigm.

  12. Efficient dam break flood simulation methods for developing a preliminary evacuation plan after the Wenchuan Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Li


    Full Text Available The Xiaojiaqiao barrier lake, which was the second largest barrier lake formed by the Wenchuan Earthquake had seriously threatened the lives and property of the population downstream. The lake was finally dredged successfully on 7 June 2008. Because of the limited time available to conduct an inundation potential analysis and make an evacuation plan, barrier lake information extraction and real-time dam break flood simulation should be carried out quickly, integrating remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS techniques with hydrologic/hydraulic analysis. In this paper, a technical framework and several key techniques for this real-time preliminary evacuation planning are introduced. An object-oriented method was used to extract hydrological information on the barrier lake from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV remote sensing images. The real-time flood routine was calculated by using shallow-water equations, which were solved by means of a finite volume scheme on multiblock structured grids. The results of the hydraulic computations are visualized and analyzed in a 3-D geographic information system for inundation potential analysis, and an emergency response plan is made. The results show that if either a full-break or a half-break situation had occurred for the Chapinghe barrier lake on 19 May 2008, then the Xiaoba Town region and the Sangzao Town region would have been affected, but the downstream towns would have been less influenced. Preliminary evacuation plans under different dam break situations can be effectively made using these methods.





    Material flow systems are in generally very complex processes. During design, building and operation of complex systems there are many different problems. If these complex processes can be described in a simple model, the tasks will be clearer, better adaptable and easier solvable. As the material flow systems are very different, so using models is a very important aid to create uniform methods and solutions. This paper shows the details of the application possibilities of modelling in the ma...

  14. Modeling Systems of Dependent Components (United States)


    Marked Shocks generated by a Poisson, a Renewal , or a Hawkes Point Process , ( ) . A Generalized Coupon Collecting Model as a Parsimonious Optimal...estimators of the mean, variance, and tail probabilities of the system life when the shock process is a Poisson process , a renewal process , or a...Modeling Systems of Dependent Components New classes of stochastic models for network systems having stochastically dependent components are studied by

  15. Social influence on evacuation behavior in real and virtual environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Kinateder


    Full Text Available Virtual reality (VR is a promising tool to study evacuation behavior as it allows experimentally controlled, safe simulation of otherwise dangerous situations. However, validation studies comparing evacuation behavior in real and virtual environments are still scarce. We compare the decision to evacuate in response to a fire alarm in matched physical and virtual environments. 150 participants were tested individually in a one-trial experiment in one of three conditions. In the Control condition, the fire alarm sounded while the participant performed a bogus perceptual matching task. In the Passive bystander condition, the participant performed the task together with a confederate who ignored the fire alarm. In the Active bystander condition, the confederate left the room when the fire alarm went off. Half of the participants in each condition experienced the scenario in the real laboratory, and the other half in a matched virtual environment with a virtual bystander, presented in a head-mounted display. The active bystander group was more likely to evacuate, and the passive bystander group less likely to evacuate, than the control group. This pattern of social influence was observed in both the real and virtual environments, although the overall response to the virtual alarm was reduced; positive influence was comparable, whereas negative influence was weaker in VR. We found no reliable gender effects for the participant or the bystander. These findings extend the bystander effect to the decision to evacuate, revealing a positive as well as the previous negative social influence. The results support the ecological validity of VR as a research tool to study evacuation behavior in emergency situations, with the caveat that effect sizes may be smaller in VR.

  16. Complex systems models: engineering simulations


    Polack, Fiona A. C.; Hoverd, Tim; Sampson, Adam T.; Stepney, Susan; Timmis, Jon,


    As part of research towards the CoSMoS unified infrastructure for modelling and simulating complex systems, we review uses of definitional and descriptive models in natural science and computing, and existing integrated platforms. From these, we identify requirements for engineering models of complex systems, and consider how some of the requirements could be met, using state-of-the-art model management and a mobile, process-oriented computing paradigm.

  17. From Numeric Models to Granular System Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Witold Pedrycz


    To make this study self-contained, we briefly recall the key concepts of granular computing and demonstrate how this conceptual framework and its algorithmic fundamentals give rise to granular models. We discuss several representative formal setups used in describing and processing information granules including fuzzy sets, rough sets, and interval calculus. Key architectures of models dwell upon relationships among information granules. We demonstrate how information granularity and its optimization can be regarded as an important design asset to be exploited in system modeling and giving rise to granular models. With this regard, an important category of rule-based models along with their granular enrichments is studied in detail.

  18. Postnuclear disaster evacuation and chronic health in adults in Fukushima, Japan: a long-term retrospective analysis (United States)

    Nomura, Shuhei; Blangiardo, Marta; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Ozaki, Akihiko; Morita, Tomohiro; Hodgson, Susan


    Objective Japan's 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant incident required the evacuation of over a million people, creating a large displaced population with potentially increased vulnerability in terms of chronic health conditions. We assessed the long-term impact of evacuation on diabetes, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. Participants We considered participants in annual public health check-ups from 2008 to 2014, administrated by Minamisoma City and Soma City, located about 10–50 km from the Fukushima nuclear plant. Methods Disease risks, measured in terms of pre-incident and post-incident relative risks, were examined and compared between evacuees and non-evacuees/temporary-evacuees. We also constructed logistic regression models to assess the impact of evacuation on the disease risks adjusted for covariates. Results Data from a total of 6406 individuals aged 40–74 years who participated in the check-ups both at baseline (2008–2010) and in one or more post-incident years were analysed. Regardless of evacuation, significant post-incident increases in risk were observed for diabetes and hyperlipidaemia (relative risk: 1.27–1.60 and 1.12–1.30, respectively, depending on evacuation status and post-incident year). After adjustment for covariates, the increase in hyperlipidaemia was significantly greater among evacuees than among non-evacuees/temporary-evacuees (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.32, pdisaster was found to be associated with a small increase in long-term hyperlipidaemia risk in adults. Our findings help identify discussion points on disaster planning, including preparedness, response and recovery measures, applicable to future disasters requiring mass evacuation. PMID:26846896

  19. A dynamic model of an innovative high-temperature solar heating and cooling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buonomano Annamaria


    Full Text Available In this paper a new simulation model of a novel solar heating and cooling system based on innovative high temperature flat plate evacuated solar thermal collector is presented. The system configuration includes: flat-plate evacuated solar collectors, a double-stage LiBr-H2O absorption chiller, gas-fired auxiliary heater, a closed loop cooling tower, pumps, heat exchangers, storage tanks, valves, mixers and controllers. The novelty of this study lies in the utilization of flat-plate stationary solar collectors, manufactured by TVP Solar, rather than concentrating ones (typically adopted for driving double-stage absorption chillers. Such devices show ultra-high thermal efficiencies, even at very high (about 200°C operating temperatures, thanks to the high vacuum insulation. Aim of the paper is to analyse the energy and economic feasibility of such novel technology, by including it in a prototypal solar heating and cooling system. For this purpose, the solar heating and cooling system design and performance were analysed by means of a purposely developed dynamic simulation model, implemented in TRNSYS. A suitable case study is also presented. Here, the simulated plant is conceived for the space heating and cooling and the domestic hot water production of a small building, whose energy needs are fulfilled through a real installation (settled also for experimental purposes built up close to Naples (South Italy. Simulation results show that the investigated system is able to reach high thermal efficiencies and very good energy performance. Finally, the economic analysis shows results comparable to those achieved through similar renewable energy systems.

  20. Testing Refrigeration Trucks for the Emergency Evacuation of Companion Animals. (United States)

    Langman, Vaughan A; Ellifrit, Nancy; Sime, Debra; Rowe, Mike; Hogue, Allan


    The purpose of this study was to quantify the changes in oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in sealed refrigerator trucks scheduled to be used for transporting companion animals (dogs and cats) during an emergency evacuation. A total of 122 nonhuman animals (total weight = 1,248 kg) housed in individual crates were loaded into a 16-m refrigeration truck. Once they were loaded, the doors were closed and the percentages of O2 and CO2 were measured every 5 min by O2 and CO2 analyzers, and they were used to quantify the changes in gas pressure in the sealed truck. CO2 had a much higher-than-predicted increase, and O2 had a higher-than-predicted decrease. These 2 pressures in combination with the functionality of the respiratory system will limit the animal's ability to load O2, and over time, they will initiate asphyxia or suffocation. Over time, the partial pressure of oxygen (PO2) in the sealed truck will decrease, causing hypoxia, and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2) will increase, causing hypercapnia.

  1. Experimental study on walking preference during high-rise stair evacuation under different ground illuminations (United States)

    Zeng, Yiping; Song, Weiguo; Jin, Sha; Ye, Rui; Liu, Xiaodong


    Movements on stairs have attracted a lot of researchers to study in order to help evacuate as fast as possible. However, there has been much less awareness for this issue on preference for stairs and human behaviors under different illuminations. Experiments were carried out to study the human movement characteristics and human behavior performance when pedestrians walked down stairs alone. By extracting the positions of pedestrians on cameras, preference and movement characteristics were studied and discussed, and it is found that pedestrians would like to choose inner side stairs rather than outside stairs when stairs were divided into 2 parts. Besides, some conclusions can be drawn when stairs are divided into three components: when entering into sections under conditions of 100% and 12% illumination, both females and males have a preference for middle areas when the width of stairs is about 130 cm, but the preference would change with illumination conditions. Furthermore, when the illumination is 0%, the mean velocity is 0.50 ± 0.14 m/s. In addition, the usability to handrails helps to reduce time taken on interfaces or mid-landings. The results help to better understand movement during stair evacuations and are important for constructing or improving evacuation models.

  2. Facilitating emergency hospital evacuation through uniform discharge criteria. (United States)

    Sandra, Keret; Meital, Nahari; Ofer, Merin; Limor, Aharonson-Daniel; Sara, Goldberg; Bruria, Adini


    Though hospitals' operational continuity is crucial, full institutional evacuation may at times be unavoidable. The study's objective was to establish criteria for discharge of patients during complete emergency evacuation and compare scope of patients suitable for discharge pre/post implementation of criteria. Standards for patient discharge during an evacuation were developed based on literature and disaster managers. The standards were reviewed in a two-round Delphi process. All hospitals in Israel were requested to identify inpatients' that could be released home during institutional evacuation. Potential discharges were compared in 2013-2014, before and after formulation of discharge criteria. Consensus exceeding 80% was obtained for four out of five criteria after two Delphi cycles. Average projected discharge rate before and after formulation of criteria was 34.2% and 42.9%, respectively (p<0.001). Variance in potential dischargeable patients was 31-fold less in 2014 than in 2013 (MST=8,452 versus MST=264,366, respectively; p<0.001). Differences were found between small, medium and large hospitals in mean rate of dischargeable patients: 52.1%, 41.5% and 42.2%, respectively (p=0.001). The study's findings enable to forecast the extent of patients that may be released home during full emergency evacuation of a hospital; thereby facilitating preparedness of contingency plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Fluid Line Evacuation and Freezing Experiments for Digital Radiator Concept (United States)

    Berisford, Daniel F.; Birur, Gajanana C.; Miller, Jennifer R.; Sunada, Eric T.; Ganapathi, Gani B.; Stephan, Ryan; Johnson, Mark


    The digital radiator technology is one of three variable heat rejection technologies being investigated for future human-rated NASA missions. The digital radiator concept is based on a mechanically pumped fluid loop with parallel tubes carrying coolant to reject heat from the radiator surface. A series of valves actuate to start and stop fluid flow to di erent combinations of tubes, in order to vary the heat rejection capability of the radiator by a factor of 10 or more. When the flow in a particular leg is stopped, the fluid temperature drops and the fluid can freeze, causing damage or preventing flow from restarting. For this reason, the liquid in a stopped leg must be partially or fully evacuated upon shutdown. One of the challenges facing fluid evacuation from closed tubes arises from the vapor generated during pumping to low pressure, which can cause pump cavitation and incomplete evacuation. Here we present a series of laboratory experiments demonstrating fluid evacuation techniques to overcome these challenges by applying heat and pumping to partial vacuum. Also presented are results from qualitative testing of the freezing characteristics of several different candidate fluids, which demonstrate significant di erences in freezing properties, and give insight to the evacuation process.

  4. Experimental studies on small intestinal pouch motility and evacuation. (United States)

    Willis, S; Riesener, K P; Anurow, M; Titkova, S; Ottinger, A; Arlt, G; Schumpelick, V


    The aim of the study was to investigate pouch motility and evacuation under standardised conditions with a minimum of external influence. Ileal J-pouches had been constructed 30 cm proximal to the ileocecal valve in 10 dogs (6 pelvic/4 gastric configuration). After 8 weeks the following examinations were performed: (1) measurement of pouch compliance by balloon distension, (2) measurement of pouch contractions by strain gauge transducers, (3) radiological imaging of pouch contractions and evacuation, (4) evacuation scintigraphy and (5) radiological determination of small intestinal transit time. Compliance (2.3 +/- 1.1 mmHg/ml) and small intestinal transit time (31.6 +/- 7.5 h) were significantly higher in the pouch group than in controls (0.5 +/- 0.2 mmHg/ml, 8.0 +/- 2.8 h; p evacuation (t(1/2) = 109 +/- 52 min). Strain gauge measurements revealed irregular pouch contractions without detectable propagation. Contraction amplitudes (40.4 +/- 22.9 g) and frequencies (10.4 +/- 1.0/min) were equal all over the pouch. There were no functional differences between gastric and pelvic pouch configuration. Small intestinal pouches act as reservoirs. Uncoordinated motility patterns contribute to this function. Other factors than pouch motility are responsible for evacuation.

  5. Epidural Hematoma Complication after Rapid Chronic Subdural Hematoma Evacuation: A Case Report (United States)

    Akpinar, Aykut; Ucler, Necati; Erdogan, Uzay; Yucetas, Cem Seyho


    Patient: Male, 41 Final Diagnosis: Healty Symptoms: Headache Medication: — Clinical Procedure: Chronic subdural hematoma Specialty: Neurosurgery Objective: Diagnostic/therapeutic accidents Background: Chronic subdural hematoma generally occurs in the elderly. After chronic subdural hematoma evacuation surgery, the development of epidural hematoma is a very rare entity. Case Report: We report the case of a 41-year-old man with an epidural hematoma complication after chronic subdural hematoma evacuation. Under general anesthesia, the patient underwent a large craniotomy with closed system drainage performed to treat the chronic subdural hematoma. After chronic subdural hematoma evacuation, there was epidural leakage on the following day. Conclusions: Although trauma is the most common risk factor in young CSDH patients, some other predisposing factors may exist. Intracranial hypotension can cause EDH. Craniotomy and drainage surgery can usually resolve the problem. Because of rapid dynamic intracranial changes, epidural leakages can occur. A large craniotomy flap and silicone drainage in the operation area are key safety points for neurosurgeons and hydration is essential. PMID:26147957

  6. Dynamic changes during evacuation of a left temporal abscess in open MRI: technical case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernays, R.L.; Yonekawa, Y. [Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital, Zurich (Switzerland); Kollias, S.S. [Institute of Neuroradiology, University Hospital of Zurich (Switzerland)


    We demonstrate the usefulness of ''near real-time'' neuro-navigation by open MRI systems for guidance of stereotactic evacuation of intracranial abscesses. A 70-year-old patient was referred to our institution with an intracranial left temporal abscess. He presented with headache, senso-motor aphasia and mild right hemiparesis. The abscess (35 x 25 mm) was stereotactically evacuated under MRI guidance, and a recurrence of a daughter abscess was again evacuated on the 9th postoperative day. ''Near real-time'' imaging showed an indentation of the abscess wall of 11 mm along the trajectory. A thermosensitive MRI protocol demonstrated a higher temperature around the abscess capsule than in the brain tissue more distant to the capsule, demonstrating the inflammatory process. The patient had 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy for gram-negative bacteria and was discharged with improved clinical symptoms 5 weeks after admission. Follow-up CT 2 months postoperatively showed a complete resolution of the abscess. Open MRI-guided interventions with ''near real-time'' imaging demonstrate the anatomical changes during an ongoing procedure and can be accommodated for enhancing the overall precision of stereotactic procedures. Thermosensitive MRI protocols are capable of revealing temperature gradients around inflammatory processes. (orig.)

  7. Reaction modeling in geothermal systems (United States)

    Stefansson, A.


    Natural volcanic geothermal systems are open systems in term of matter and energy. Such systems are complex to model in terms of fluid chemistry, fluid flow and energy budget. Reaction modeling may be used to gain insight and possibly quantify chemical processes occurring within a system, for example fluid-fluid and fluid-rock interaction. Methods have been developed within the WATCH (Bjarnason, 1994; Arnórsson et al., 2007) and PHREEQC (Parkhurst and Appelo, 1999) programs to simulate reactions of multicomponent and multiphase systems to 300°C. The models include boiling and phase segregation (open system boiling), fluid-fluid mixing and fluid-rock interaction (gas-water-rock interaction). The models have been applied to quantify processes within the Hellisheidi geothermal system, Iceland. Open system boiling and fluid-rock interaction were simulated as a function of temperature, initial fluid composition and extent of reaction (T-X-ξ). In addition the interactions of magmatic gases with geothermal fluids and rocks were modeled. In this way various component behavior has been traced within the geothermal system and compared with observations of fluid composition and mineralogy. In addition, the reaction models have been used to evaluate the geochemical feasibility and best conditions of gas (CO2 and H2S) and waste water injection into geothermal system.

  8. Simulation of the shopping center 'Zona I' evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.


    Full Text Available One of the most important and the most complex tasks in human protection and human safety in objects is the projecting of the object evacuation. There are many factors that could effect on the opportune living of object such as object assignment, arrangement of rooms, arrangement of furniture, arrangement of exits, occupant speed and many other that human lives and material properties depend on. This is very important for objects with great number of humans, such as high residential objects, shopping centers, schools, hospitals etc. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situations and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of the shopping center 'Zona I' in Niš.

  9. Stochastic Modelling of Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Kaae


    of statistical methods and physical interpretation is exploited in the modelling procedure, from the design of experiments to parameter estimation and model validation. The presented models are mainly formulated as state space models in continuous time with discrete time observation equations. The state......In this thesis dynamic models of typical components in Danish heating systems are considered. Emphasis is made on describing and evaluating mathematical methods for identification of such models, and on presentation of component models for practical applications. The thesis consists of seven...... research papers (case studies) together with a summary report. Each case study takes it's starting point in typical heating system components and both, the applied mathematical modelling methods and the application aspects, are considered. The summary report gives an introduction to the scope...

  10. Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Gordon, Leslie C.


    Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, for use by researchers and emergency managers to estimate how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a tsunami-hazard zone. The ArcGIS software extension, released in September 2014, allows the user to create maps showing travel times out of hazard zones and to determine the number of people that may or may not have enough time to evacuate. The maps take into account the elevation changes and the different types of land cover that a person would encounter along the way.

  11. Model Reduction of Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaker, Hamid Reza

    matrices are constructed based on the convex combinations of the generalized gramians. However this framework is less conservative than the first one, it does not guarantee the stability for all switching signals. The stability preservation is studied for this reduction technique. The third framework......High-Technological solutions of today are characterized by complex dynamical models. A lot of these models have inherent hybrid/switching structure. Hybrid/switched systems are powerful models for distributed embedded systems design where discrete controls are applied to continuous processes...... of hybrid systems, designing controllers and implementations is very high so that the use of these models is limited in applications where the size of the state space is large. To cope with complexity, model reduction is a powerful technique. This thesis presents methods for model reduction and stability...

  12. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H


    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...

  13. Dynamic modeling of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, M.; White, J.


    Morgantown Energy Technology Center`s (METC) Process and Project Engineering (P&PE) personnel continue to refine and modify dynamic modeling or simulations for advanced power systems. P&PE, supported by Gilbert/Commonwealth, Inc. (G/C), has adapted PC/TRAX commercial dynamic software to include equipment found in advanced power systems. PC/TRAX`s software contains the equations that describe the operation of standard power plant equipment such as gas turbines, feedwater pumps, and steam turbines. The METC team has incorporated customized dynamic models using Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) code for pressurized circulating fluidized-bed combustors, carbonizers, and other components that are found in Advanced Pressurized Fluidized-Bed Combustion (APFBC) systems. A dynamic model of a commercial-size APFBC power plant was constructed in order to determine representative operating characteristics of the plant and to gain some insight into the best type of control system design. The dynamic model contains both process and control model components. This presentation covers development of a model used to describe the commercial APFBC power plant. Results of exercising the model to simulate plant performance are described and illustrated. Information gained during the APFBC study was applied to a dynamic model of a 1-1/2 generation PFBC system. Some initial results from this study are also presented.

  14. Intrusion detection: systems and models (United States)

    Sherif, J. S.; Dearmond, T. G.


    This paper puts forward a review of state of the art and state of the applicability of intrusion detection systems, and models. The paper also presents a classfication of literature pertaining to intrusion detection.

  15. Prey exoskeletons influence the course of gastric evacuation in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Couturier, C. S.; Andersen, N. G.; Audet, C.


    This study examined the effects of prey exoskeleton characteristics on gastric evacuation patterns in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. Three distinct stages were highlighted in the gastric evacuation of crustacean prey characterized by a robust exoskeleton. The experiments confirmed that the three shrimp...... of the prey exoskeleton all affected gastric evacuation: duration of initial delay, overall evacuation rate and a decreased evacuation rate at the end of the process. The power exponential function (PEF), with its shape parameter, described the course of evacuation for these prey types well, especially...... the initial delay. The PEF does not, however, allow describing evacuation by the current stomach content mass independent of meal size, which limits its usefulness in estimating consumption rates of wild G. morhua. To predict and describe gastric evacuation of prey with a robust exoskeleton, it is therefore...

  16. Emergency communications for evacuation (EVAC) in New Orleans impact assessment report. (United States)


    This document constitutes the Impact Assessment Report for Emergency Communications for Evacuation (EVAC) in : New Orleans. Response, Emergency Staging and Communications, Uniform Management, and Evacuation : (R.E.S.C.U.M.E.) is a bundle of applicati...

  17. Integrating supply and demand aspects of transportation for mass evacuation under disasters. (United States)


    This study seeks to address real-time operational needs in the context of the evacuation response problem by providing a capability to dynamically route vehicles under evacuation, thereby being responsive to the actual conditions unfolding in real-ti...

  18. Multimodal Solutions for Large Scale Evacuation (United States)


    In this research, a multimodal transportation model was developed attending the needs of emergency situations, and the solutions provided by the model could be used to moderate congestion during such events. The model incorporated features such as la...

  19. Multimodal solutions for large scale evacuations. (United States)


    In this research, a multimodal transportation model was developed attending the needs of emergency situations, : and the solutions provided by the model could be used to moderate congestion during such events. : The model incorporated features such a...

  20. The Influence of subway climatology on gas dispersion and the effectiveness of guided evacuations in a complex subway station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Brüne


    Full Text Available This paper discusses a strategy that integrates data from tracer gas experiments with results from pedestrian simulation software in the evaluation of different evacuation procedures for subway stations in response to a fire or a terrorist attack with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and enhanced conventional weapons (CBRNE. The study demonstrates that by combining the two data sets a greater understanding of the impact of different evacuations routes on an evacuee's health is gained. It is shown that by controlling the routes pedestrians would use to exit a subway station, the number of fatalities and evacuees with long term health issues can be reduced. It is highlighted that a dynamic evacuation guiding system based on subway climatology would take into account the source of the toxin, the resulting dispersal of gas, smoke, etc. and the subway climatology at the time. In doing so, it would be possible to identify the most endangered areas and guide passengers via an adaptive escape route using audio and visual techniques. Information on the evolution of the emergency situation could also simultaneously be relayed back to the rescue forces to help to plan the rescue and evacuation procedures and optimise the deployment of the search and rescue teams.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Koveshnikov


    Full Text Available The paper is dedicated to issues of system objects securing (system files and user system or application configuration files against unauthorized access including denial of service attacks. We have suggested the method and developed abstract system virtualization models, which are used toresearch attack scenarios for different virtualization modes. Estimation for system tools virtualization technology effectiveness is given. Suggested technology is based on redirection of access requests to system objects shared among access subjects. Whole and partial system virtualization modes have been modeled. The difference between them is the following: in the whole virtualization mode all copies of access system objects are created whereon subjects’ requests are redirected including corresponding application objects;in the partial virtualization mode corresponding copies are created only for part of a system, for example, only system objects for applications. Alternative solutions effectiveness is valued relating to different attack scenarios. We consider proprietary and approved technical solution which implements system virtualization method for Microsoft Windows OS family. Administrative simplicity and capabilities of correspondingly designed system objects security tools are illustrated on this example. Practical significance of the suggested security method has been confirmed.

  2. Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten Haack


    An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...

  3. Aerodynamic and Mechanical System Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Martin Felix

    This thesis deals with mechanical multibody-systems applied to the drivetrain of a 500 kW wind turbine. Particular focus has been on gearbox modelling of wind turbines. The main part of the present project involved programming multibody systems to investigate the connection between forces, moment...

  4. International Organization for Migration: experience on the need for medical evacuation of refugees during the Kosovo crisis in 1999. (United States)

    Szilard, Istvan; Cserti, Arpad; Hoxha, Ruhija; Gorbacheva, Olga; O'Rourke, Thomas


    The International Organization for Migration (IOM) developed and implemented a three-month project entitled Priority Medical Screening of Kosovar Refugees in Macedonia, within the Humanitarian Evacuation Program (HEP) for Kosovar refugees from FR Yugoslavia, which was adopted in May 1999. The project was based on an agreement with the office of United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and comprised the entry of registration data of refugees with medical condition (Priority Medical Database), and classification (Priority Medical Screening) and medical evacuation of refugees (Priority Medical Evacuation) in Macedonia. To realize the Priority Medical Screening project plan, IOM developed and set up a Medical Database linked to IOM/UNHCR HEP database, recruited and trained a four-member data entry team, worked out and set up a referral system for medical cases from the refugee camps, and established and staffed medical contact office for refugees in Skopje and Tetovo. Furthermore, it organized and staffed a mobile medical screening team, developed and implemented the system and criteria for the classification of referred medical cases, continuously registered and classified the incoming medical reports, contacted regularly the national delegates and referred to them the medically prioritized cases asking for acceptance and evacuation, and co-operated and continuously exchanged the information with UNHCR Medical Co-ordination and HEP team. Within the timeframe of the project, 1,032 medical cases were successfully evacuated for medical treatment to 25 host countries throughout the world. IOM found that those refugees suffering from health problems, who at the time of the termination of the program were still in Macedonia and had not been assisted by the project, were not likely to have been priority one cases, whose health problems could be solved only in a third country. The majority of these vulnerable people needed social rather than medical care and

  5. Considering culture in evacuation planning and consequence management. (United States)

    Bergeron, Wayne P


    Because culture profoundly affects human behavior, it is important that emergency management decision makers from both government and the private sector who will be involved in the management of evacuation operations build cultural considerations into their planning, preparations, education, and training from the very beginning. Preparation in this regard ensures that when the crisis hits, the response efforts undertaken will at a minimum not disregard culture or make situations worse because of a lack of cultural understanding and optimally will use the consideration of culture to frame the most effective response possible to ultimately save lives and relieve suffering. Whether it is recognizing that in some cultures the decision to comply with evacuation advice and orders will be made by a matriarch or patriarch of the family, or that the ability of an entire extended family unit to remain together in the evacuation process will be the key to compliance, culture may be the pivotal factor in a successful outcome. It is these (and many more) small cultural considerations and an overall understanding of the effect that culture has on behavior that can enhance the overall effectiveness of a culturally aware organization involved in the management of evacuation operations and emergency response. Hopefully, this initial work begins a deeper discussion and evaluation of cultural aspects both concerning the populations and cultures impacted by events, but just as importantly, the cultures and cultural understanding of the responding organizations.

  6. is misoprostol a suitable alternative to the surgical evacuation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jun 11, 2013 ... Request for reprint to: Dr. B. Chigbu, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Abia State University Teaching. Hospital, PMB 7004, Abia State, Nigeria. IS MISOPROSTOL A SUITABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE SURGICAL. EVACUATION OF INCOMPLETE ABORTION IN RURAL SOUTH-EASTERN.

  7. Integrating Decentralized Indoor Evacuation with Information Depositories in the Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Zhao


    Full Text Available The lonelier evacuees find themselves, the riskier become their wayfinding decisions. This research supports single evacuees in a dynamically changing environment with risk-aware guidance. It deploys the concept of decentralized evacuation, where evacuees are guided by smartphones acquiring environmental knowledge and risk information via exploration and knowledge sharing by peer-to-peer communication. Peer-to-peer communication, however, relies on the chance that people come into communication range with each other. This chance can be low. To bridge between people being not at the same time at the same places, this paper suggests information depositories at strategic locations to improve information sharing. Information depositories collect the knowledge acquired by the smartphones of evacuees passing by, maintain this information, and convey it to other passing-by evacuees. Multi-agent simulation implementing these depositories in an indoor environment shows that integrating depositories improves evacuation performance: It enhances the risk awareness and consequently increases the chance that people survive and reduces their evacuation time. For evacuating dynamic events, deploying depositories at staircases has been shown more effective than deploying them in corridors.

  8. Development of Cladding Materials for Evacuated Panel Superinsulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkes, K.E.; Weaver, F.J.; Cumberbatch, G.M.; Begnoche, B.; Brodie, V.; Lamb, W.; Reitz, R.; Caldwell, P.; Meyer, C.


    This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) was among E.I. DuPont de Nemours and Company, VacuPanel, Inc., and Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. Evacuated panel superinsulations have thermal resistivities (R) substantially above that of conventional existing insulation without the environmental problems of some insulations such as foam insulations blown with Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs).

  9. Neighborhood organization activities: evacuation drills, clusters, and fire safety awareness (United States)

    Dick White


    Emergency preparedness activities of one Berkeley-Oakland Hills neighborhood at the wildland/urban interface include establishing clusters that reduce fire hazards and fuel loads, setting aside emergency supplies, and identifying evacuation routes; taking emergency preparedness courses from the Offices of Emergency Services of Berkeley and Oakland (the CERT and CORE...

  10. Evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, C.; Sørensen, J.G.; Dederichs, A.S.


    An understanding of human evacuation dynamics and performance are important when designing complex buildings such as bridges and when applying performance-based codes in order to reduce the risk of exposing occupants to critical conditions in case of fire. The majority of previous studies deal...

  11. 14 CFR Appendix J to Part 25 - Emergency Evacuation (United States)


    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Emergency Evacuation J Appendix J to Part 25 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT... an emergency exit. (j) Seat belts and shoulder harnesses (as required) must be fastened. (k) Before...

  12. Modified Evacuated-Tube Collector Tested in Solar Simulator (United States)


    According to report, particular commercial evacuated-tube solar collector performs slightly more efficiently with larger manifold. Tests were performed with Marshall Space Flight Center solar simulator. Report describes test conditions and procedures, provides analysis of results, and presents tables and graphs of data, both measured and calculated.

  13. Nonlinear Effects in Examples of Crowd Evacuation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens; Berg Thomsen, Kristian; Sørensen, Asger


    Severe accidents with many fatalities have occurred when too many pedestrians had to maneuver in too tight surroundings, as during evacuations of mass events. This demonstrates the importance of a better general understanding of pedestrians and emergent complex behavior in crowds. To this end, we...

  14. Emergency evacuation : how better interior design can improve passenger flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, L.C.; Skjong, R.


    The paper presents some conclusions from the EU basic research project "MEPdesign" relevant for design of ship interiors. The findings are discussed with regard to passenger flow as a function of design parameters. The paper explains that current evacuation analyses may be overly optimistic. The

  15. DESIGN a solar hybrid air conditioning compressor system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalaji Assadi M.


    Full Text Available To develop and integrate solar hybrid system into conventional air conditioning system which provides the same cooling load with considerably less electricity demand. Solar evacuated tube and DC compressor are used for compressing the refrigerant in an air conditioning system, thus effectively reducing the air conditioning electricity consumption by up to 45%. For the flow through type selected geometry of the designed evacuated U-tube collector, a three dimensional simulation and analysis of the thermal performance was done, using the solar ray-tracing model provided by the ANSYS-FLUENT software.

  16. Precision of ingestion time and evacuation predictors for individual prey in stomachs of predatory fishes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner; Beyer, Jan


    merlangus), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and saithe (pollock) (Pollachius virens). Deriving the variance of gastric evacuation rate, evacuation time, and remaining prey mass, the study also established a basis for statistical analyses of the results obtained from laboratory experiments on gastric evacuation...

  17. Modeling Multi-Level Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Iordache, Octavian


    This book is devoted to modeling of multi-level complex systems, a challenging domain for engineers, researchers and entrepreneurs, confronted with the transition from learning and adaptability to evolvability and autonomy for technologies, devices and problem solving methods. Chapter 1 introduces the multi-scale and multi-level systems and highlights their presence in different domains of science and technology. Methodologies as, random systems, non-Archimedean analysis, category theory and specific techniques as model categorification and integrative closure, are presented in chapter 2. Chapters 3 and 4 describe polystochastic models, PSM, and their developments. Categorical formulation of integrative closure offers the general PSM framework which serves as a flexible guideline for a large variety of multi-level modeling problems. Focusing on chemical engineering, pharmaceutical and environmental case studies, the chapters 5 to 8 analyze mixing, turbulent dispersion and entropy production for multi-scale sy...

  18. Pembangunan Model Restaurant Management System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fredy Jingga


    Full Text Available Model design for Restaurant Management System aims to help in restaurant business process, where Restaurant Management System (RMS help the waitress and chef could interact each other without paper limitation.  This Restaurant Management System Model develop using Agile Methodology and developed based on PHP Programming Langguage. The database management system is using MySQL. This web-based application model will enable the waitress and the chef to interact in realtime, from the time they accept the customer order until the chef could know what to cook and checklist for the waitress wheter the order is fullfill or not, until the cahsier that will calculate the bill and the payment that they accep from the customer.

  19. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H


    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures.Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives re

  20. An extensible analysable system model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, Rene Rydhof


    , this does not hold for real physical systems. Approaches such as threat modelling try to target the formalisation of the real-world domain, but still are far from the rigid techniques available in security research. Many currently available approaches to assurance of critical infrastructure security......Analysing real-world systems for vulnerabilities with respect to security and safety threats is a difficult undertaking, not least due to a lack of availability of formalisations for those systems. While both formalisations and analyses can be found for artificial systems such as software...

  1. Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling (United States)

    Nakis, Christopher G.


    The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.

  2. The wide-range ejector flowmeter: calibrated gas evacuation comprising both high and low gas flows. (United States)

    Waaben, J; Brinkløv, M M; Jørgensen, S


    The wide-range ejector flowmeter is an active scavenging system applying calibrated gas removal directly to the anaesthetic circuit. The evacuation rate can be adjusted on the flowmeter under visual control using the calibration scale ranging from 200 ml X min-1 to 151 X min-1. The accuracy of the calibration was tested on three ejector flowmeters at 12 different presettings. The percentage deviation from presetting varied from + 18 to - 19.4 per cent. The ejector flowmeter enables the provision of consistent and accurately calibrated extraction of waste gases and is applicable within a wide range of fresh gas flows.

  3. Executive Information Systems' Multidimensional Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available Executive Information Systems are design to improve the quality of strategic level of management in organization through a new type of technology and several techniques for extracting, transforming, processing, integrating and presenting data in such a way that the organizational knowledge filters can easily associate with this data and turn it into information for the organization. These technologies are known as Business Intelligence Tools. But in order to build analytic reports for Executive Information Systems (EIS in an organization we need to design a multidimensional model based on the business model from the organization. This paper presents some multidimensional models that can be used in EIS development and propose a new model that is suitable for strategic business requests.

  4. Video distribution system cost model (United States)

    Gershkoff, I.; Haspert, J. K.; Morgenstern, B.


    A cost model that can be used to systematically identify the costs of procuring and operating satellite linked communications systems is described. The user defines a network configuration by specifying the location of each participating site, the interconnection requirements, and the transmission paths available for the uplink (studio to satellite), downlink (satellite to audience), and voice talkback (between audience and studio) segments of the network. The model uses this information to calculate the least expensive signal distribution path for each participating site. Cost estimates are broken downy by capital, installation, lease, operations and maintenance. The design of the model permits flexibility in specifying network and cost structure.

  5. 30 CFR 75.1501 - Emergency evacuations. (United States)


    ... expected movements of miners underground, the operation of the mine ventilation system, the locations of the mine escapeways and refuge alternatives, the mine communications system, any mine monitoring... each shift that miners work underground, there shall be in attendance a responsible person designated...

  6. Comparison of evacuation methods used in the Netherlands and the USACE Dam and Levee Safety Programs for the Natomas Basin (CA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolen B. (Bas


    Full Text Available Both in the USA and in the Netherlands, extensive studies on approaches for identifying flood risks (the combination of levee failure probabilities and consequences are ongoing. A related topic concerns evacuation and emergency management (EEM. The magnitude of life loss is directly influenced by the effectiveness of EEM. Different models can be used to define the effectiveness of evacuation. The main objective of this study is to compare Dutch and American methods for evacuation as part of flood risk management strategies for a number of case studies in the US. A second, additional objective is to explore how approaches for EEM that have been recently developed in the Netherlands, can be applied in the United States. This research shows the benefits and limitations for the application of different types of models. This research contributes to the improvement of methods for emergency management, in the Netherlands, the US and other countries.

  7. Parametric Modeling for Fluid Systems (United States)

    Pizarro, Yaritzmar Rosario; Martinez, Jonathan


    Fluid Systems involves different projects that require parametric modeling, which is a model that maintains consistent relationships between elements as is manipulated. One of these projects is the Neo Liquid Propellant Testbed, which is part of Rocket U. As part of Rocket U (Rocket University), engineers at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida have the opportunity to develop critical flight skills as they design, build and launch high-powered rockets. To build the Neo testbed; hardware from the Space Shuttle Program was repurposed. Modeling for Neo, included: fittings, valves, frames and tubing, between others. These models help in the review process, to make sure regulations are being followed. Another fluid systems project that required modeling is Plant Habitat's TCUI test project. Plant Habitat is a plan to develop a large growth chamber to learn the effects of long-duration microgravity exposure to plants in space. Work for this project included the design and modeling of a duct vent for flow test. Parametric Modeling for these projects was done using Creo Parametric 2.0.

  8. Prototype development and demonstration for response, emergency staging, communications, uniform management, and evacuation (R.E.S.C.U.M.E.) : R.E.S.C.U.M.E. prototype system architecture. (United States)


    This document provides the high-level system architecture for the Prototype Development and Demonstration of a : R.E.S.C.U.M.E. system. The requirements addressed in this document are based upon those that can be found in : previous R.E.S.C.U.M.E. re...

  9. How prepared individuals and communities are for evacuation in tsunami-prone areas in Europe? Findings from the ASTARTE EU Programme (United States)

    Lavigne, Franck; Grancher, Delphine; Goeldner-Gianella, Lydie; Karanci, Nuray; Dogulu, Nilay; Kanoglu, Utku; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; El Mouraouah, Azelarab; Benchekroun, Sabah; Birouk, Abdelouahad


    Understanding social vulnerability to tsunamis provides risk managers with the required information to determine whether individuals have the capacity to evacuate, and therefore to take mitigation measures to protect their communities. In the frame of the EU programme ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), we conducted a questionnaire-based survey among 1,661 people from 41 nationalities living in, working in, or visiting 10 Test Sites from 9 different countries. The questions, which have been translated in 11 languages, focused on tsunami hazard awareness, risk perception, and knowledge of the existing warning systems. Our results confirm our initial hypothesis that low attention is paid in Europe to tsunami risk. Among all type of hazards, either natural or not, tsunami rank first in only one site (Lyngen fjord in Norway), rank third in 3 other sites (Eforie Nord in Romania, Nice and Istanbul), rank 4 in Gulluk Bay, 5 in Sines and Heraklion, and 10 in Siracusa (Sicily) and San Jordi (Balearic Islands). Whatever the respondent's status (i.e. local population, local authorities, or tourists), earthquakes and drawdown of the sea are cited as tsunami warning signs by 43% and 39% of the respondents, respectively. Therefore self-evacuation is not expected for more than half of the population. Considering that most European countries have no early warning system for tsunamis, a disaster is likely to happen in any coastal area exposed to this specific hazard. Furthermore, knowledge of past tsunami events is also very limited: only 22% of people stated that a tsunami has occurred in the past, whereas a deadly tsunami occurs every century in the Mediterranean Sea (e.g. in AD 365, 1660, 1672 or 1956 in the eastern part, 1908, 1979 or 2003 in the western part), and high tsunami waves devastated the Portugal and Moroccan coasts in 1755. Despite this lack of knowledge and awareness of past events, 62% of the respondents think that the site of

  10. Thermodynamic models in cosmochemical systems. (United States)

    Griffiths, P. R.; Brown, C. W.; Lippincott, E. R.; Dayhoff , M. O.


    Generalized computer methods are developed for inferring details of the formation of cosmochemical systems. Compositions of ideal gas mixtures existing in equilibrium with multicomponent solid and liquid phases are calculated. A comparison of computed results with experimental data is made for the ternary system MgO-FeO-SiO2. While the ideal-solution approximation is shown to be inaccurate in dealing with the silicate melts, the stable phases and compositions can be accurately calculated in a system where there are only solids and gas. A model system containing the elements H, O, Si, Mg, S, C, Cl, and F is investigated over a range of compositions involving the gas and ten solid phases, to show the power of the technique in dealing with complex gas-solid equilibria. Systems close to cosmic composition are next considered, both with and without iron.

  11. GENERIC model for multiphase systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sagis, L.M.C.


    GENERIC is a nonequilibrium thermodynamic formalism in which the dynamic behavior of a system is described by a single compact equation involving two types of brackets: a Poisson bracket and a dissipative bracket. This formalism has proved to be a very powerful instrument to model the dynamic

  12. Models of complex attitude systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bjarne Taulo

    production systems was modelled. The analysis was based on data from a cross-cultural survey involving 1931 participants from Belgium, Denmark, Germany and Poland. The survey questionnaire contained measures of personal value orientations and attitudes towards environment and nature, industrial food...

  13. Model checking embedded system designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, Hendrik; Mader, Angelika H.


    Model checking has established itself as a successful tool supported technique for the verification and debugging of various hardware and software systems [16]. Not only in academia, but also by industry this technique is increasingly being regarded as a promising and practical proposition,

  14. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin


    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, B


    Hydrogen storage is recognized as a key technical hurdle that must be overcome for the realization of hydrogen powered vehicles. Metal hydrides and their doped variants have shown great promise as a storage material and significant advances have been made with this technology. In any practical storage system the rate of H2 uptake will be governed by all processes that affect the rate of mass transport through the bed and into the particles. These coupled processes include heat and mass transfer as well as chemical kinetics and equilibrium. However, with few exceptions, studies of metal hydrides have focused primarily on fundamental properties associated with hydrogen storage capacity and kinetics. A full understanding of the complex interplay of physical processes that occur during the charging and discharging of a practical storage system requires models that integrate the salient phenomena. For example, in the case of sodium alanate, the size of NaAlH4 crystals is on the order of 300nm and the size of polycrystalline particles may be approximately 10 times larger ({approx}3,000nm). For the bed volume to be as small as possible, it is necessary to densely pack the hydride particles. Even so, in packed beds composed of NaAlH{sub 4} particles alone, it has been observed that the void fraction is still approximately 50-60%. Because of the large void fraction and particle to particle thermal contact resistance, the thermal conductivity of the hydride is very low, on the order of 0.2 W/m-{sup o}C, Gross, Majzoub, Thomas and Sandrock [2002]. The chemical reaction for hydrogen loading is exothermic. Based on the data in Gross [2003], on the order of 10{sup 8}J of heat of is released for the uptake of 5 kg of H{sub 2}2 and complete conversion of NaH to NaAlH{sub 4}. Since the hydride reaction transitions from hydrogen loading to discharge at elevated temperatures, it is essential to control the temperature of the bed. However, the low thermal conductivity of the hydride

  16. A Guide for Emergency Evacuation Management and Operations (United States)


    coordinators or assistants for medical care and public health (including sanitation and mortuary services). To plan for and execute evacuation operations...conversion of schols, hotels and other facilities to temporary care facilities; * Plan to coordinate mortuary services for interment of the dead, grave...disinfectants; packaged cleaning towels and toilet paper; and chemical toilets where possible (with chemicals). 20-4L 0; 20.4 OTHER SUPPLIES The following items

  17. Graph modeling systems and methods (United States)

    Neergaard, Mike


    An apparatus and a method for vulnerability and reliability modeling are provided. The method generally includes constructing a graph model of a physical network using a computer, the graph model including a plurality of terminating vertices to represent nodes in the physical network, a plurality of edges to represent transmission paths in the physical network, and a non-terminating vertex to represent a non-nodal vulnerability along a transmission path in the physical network. The method additionally includes evaluating the vulnerability and reliability of the physical network using the constructed graph model, wherein the vulnerability and reliability evaluation includes a determination of whether each terminating and non-terminating vertex represents a critical point of failure. The method can be utilized to evaluate wide variety of networks, including power grid infrastructures, communication network topologies, and fluid distribution systems.

  18. Modeling and simulation of spacecraft power systems (United States)

    Lee, J. R.; Cho, B. H.; Kim, S. J.; Lee, F. C.


    EASY5 modeling of a complete spacecraft power processing system is presented. Component models are developed, and several system models including a solar array switching system, a partially-shunted solar array system and COBE system are simulated. The power system's modes of operation, such as shunt mode, battery-charge mode, and battery-discharge mode, are simulated for a complete orbit cycle.

  19. Probabilistic models for feedback systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, Matthew D.; Boggs, Paul T.


    In previous work, we developed a Bayesian-based methodology to analyze the reliability of hierarchical systems. The output of the procedure is a statistical distribution of the reliability, thus allowing many questions to be answered. The principal advantage of the approach is that along with an estimate of the reliability, we also can provide statements of confidence in the results. The model is quite general in that it allows general representations of all of the distributions involved, it incorporates prior knowledge into the models, it allows errors in the 'engineered' nodes of a system to be determined by the data, and leads to the ability to determine optimal testing strategies. In this report, we provide the preliminary steps necessary to extend this approach to systems with feedback. Feedback is an essential component of 'complexity' and provides interesting challenges in modeling the time-dependent action of a feedback loop. We provide a mechanism for doing this and analyze a simple case. We then consider some extensions to more interesting examples with local control affecting the entire system. Finally, a discussion of the status of the research is also included.

  20. The science between tsunami science and evacuation decisions (United States)

    McCaughey, J.; Dewi, P. R.; Mundzir, I.; Rosemary, R.; Safrina, L.; Daly, P.; Patt, A.


    The science of rare natural hazards provides us an opportunity that our ancestors lacked: the chance to learn what hazards we could face, and how reliable any particular precursor may or may not be. Connecting hazard science to societal learning is far too complex a challenge for our intuitions to be of much use. Instead, we need to use evidence - the science of science communication - to identify what actually works. As practitioners, we first worked with NGOs and local governments in coastal Sumatran communities to develop tsunami evacuation guidance that is consistent with the science of tsunamis and suitable for the communities that face the threat. This work identified important practical questions that social science can address: how do people decide whether to evacuate, and how do hazard knowledge and experience influence this? How acceptable are false alarms? What modes of communicating tsunami science and its uncertainties may lead to greater willingness to evacuate, and greater acceptance of false alarms? Which parts of the vast body of research on communication, risk perception, and decision-making might be significant in these contexts? We are beginning research at the household level that will address these questions and feed back into our continuing science-communication practice.

  1. Mass Casualty Incident Response and Aeromedical Evacuation in Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mills, Christopher N


    Full Text Available Antarctica is one of the most remote regions on Earth. Mass casualty incident (MCI responses in Antarctica are prone to complications from multiple environmental and operational challenges. This review of the current status of MCI risks and response strategies for Antarctica focuses on aeromedical evacuation, a critical component of many possible MCI scenarios. Extreme cold and weather, a lack of medical resources and a multitude of disparate international bases all exert unique demands on MCI response planning. Increasing cruise ship traffic is also escalating the risk of MCI occurrence. To be successful, MCI response must be well coordinated and undertaken by trained rescuers, especially in the setting of Antarctica. Helicopter rescue or aeromedical evacuation of victims to off-continent facilities may be necessary. Currently, military forces have the greatest capacity for mass air evacuation. Specific risks that are likely to occur include structure collapses, vehicle incapacitations, vehicle crashes and fires. All of these events pose concomitant risks of hypothermia among both victims and rescuers. Antarctica’s unique environment requires flexible yet robust MCI response planning among the many entities in operation on the continent. [West J Emerg Med. 2011;12(1:37-42.

  2. Controlled evacuation using the biocompatible and energy efficient microfluidic ejector. (United States)

    Lad, V N; Ralekar, Swati


    Development of controlled vacuum is having many applications in the realm of biotechnology, cell transfer, gene therapy, biomedical engineering and other engineering activities involving separation or chemical reactions. Here we show the controlled vacuum generation through a biocompatible, energy efficient, low-cost and flexible miniature device. We have designed and fabricated microfluidic devices from polydimethylsiloxane which are capable of producing vacuum at a highly controlled rate by using water as a motive fluid. Scrupulous removal of infected fluid/body fluid from the internal hemorrhage affected parts during surgical operations, gene manipulation, cell sorting, and other biomedical activities require complete isolation of the delicate cells or tissues adjacent to the targeted location. We demonstrate the potential of the miniature device to obtain controlled evacuation without the use of highly pressurized motive fluids. Water has been used as a motive liquid to eject vapor and liquid at ambient conditions through the microfluidic devices prepared using a low-cost fabrication method. The proposed miniature device may find applications in vacuum generation especially where the controlled rate of evacuation, and limited vacuum generation are of utmost importance in order to precisely protect the cells in the nearby region of the targeted evacuated area.

  3. Surgical smoke evacuation guidelines: compliance among perioperative nurses. (United States)

    Ball, Kay


    More than 500,000 health care workers are exposed to surgical smoke every year. Toxic gases create an offensive odor, small particulate matter causes respiratory complications, and pathogens may be transmitted in the surgical smoke to the surgical team. Previous research notes that perioperative nurses do not consistently follow smoke evacuation recommendations. The purpose of this study was to determine key indicators that are associated with compliance with smoke evacuation recommendations. Data from a web-based survey completed by 777 nurse members of AORN were analyzed to examine the relationship between the key indicators and compliance with smoke evacuation recommendations. Major findings were that specific key indicators influencing compliance include increased knowledge and training, positive perceptions about the complexity of the recommendations, and increased specialization, interconnectedness, and leadership support in larger facilities. Education programs can be developed that directly address these key predictors so that a surgical environment free from surgical smoke is promoted. 2010 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa


    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains an introduct......In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  5. The evolution of casualty evacuation in the British Army in the 20th century (Part 3)--1945 to present. (United States)

    Bricknell, M C M


    This is the third in a series of papers describing the evolution of the British casualty evacuation chain during the 20th century. This period was dominated by the threat of war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact in Central Europe. The Suez Crisis in 1956, the Falklands War in 1982, the GulfWar in 1991 and events in the Balkans during the 1990s demonstrated the requirement for a flexible system for medical support to the UK Armed Forces.

  6. Discrete modelling of drapery systems (United States)

    Thoeni, Klaus; Giacomini, Anna


    Drapery systems are an efficient and cost-effective measure in preventing and controlling rockfall hazards on rock slopes. The simplest form consists of a row of ground anchors along the top of the slope connected to a horizontal support cable from which a wire mesh is suspended down the face of the slope. Such systems are generally referred to as simple or unsecured draperies (Badger and Duffy 2012). Variations such as secured draperies, where a pattern of ground anchors is incorporated within the field of the mesh, and hybrid systems, where the upper part of an unsecured drapery is elevated to intercept rockfalls originating upslope of the installation, are becoming more and more popular. This work presents a discrete element framework for simulation of unsecured drapery systems and its variations. The numerical model is based on the classical discrete element method (DEM) and implemented into the open-source framework YADE (Šmilauer et al., 2010). The model takes all relevant interactions between block, drapery and slope into account (Thoeni et al., 2014) and was calibrated and validated based on full-scale experiments (Giacomini et al., 2012).The block is modelled as a rigid clump made of spherical particles which allows any shape to be approximated. The drapery is represented by a set of spherical particle with remote interactions. The behaviour of the remote interactions is governed by the constitutive behaviour of the wire and generally corresponds to a piecewise linear stress-strain relation (Thoeni et al., 2013). The same concept is used to model wire ropes. The rock slope is represented by rigid triangular elements where material properties (e.g., normal coefficient of restitution, friction angle) are assigned to each triangle. The capabilities of the developed model to simulate drapery systems and estimate the residual hazard involved with such systems is shown. References Badger, T.C., Duffy, J.D. (2012) Drapery systems. In: Turner, A.K., Schuster R

  7. Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location. (United States)

    Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika


    This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

  8. Rapid health assessments of evacuation centres in areas affected by Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Alma Ramos


    Full Text Available Introduction: Typhoon Haiyan caused thousands of deaths and catastrophic destruction, leaving many homeless in Region 8 of the Philippines. A team from the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program conducted a rapid health assessment survey of evacuation centres severely affected by Haiyan. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted whereby a convenience sample of evacuation centres were assessed on the number of toilets per evacuee, sanitation, drinking-water, food supply source and medical services. Results: Of the 20 evacuation centres assessed, none had a designated manager. Most were located in schools (70% with the estimated number of evacuees ranging from 15 to 5000 per centre. Only four (20% met the World Health Organization standard for number of toilets per evacuee; none of the large evacuation centres had even half the recommended number of toilets. All of the evacuation centres had available drinking-water. None of the evacuation centres had garbage collection, vector control activities or standby medical teams. Fourteen (70% evacuation centres had onsite vaccination activities for measles, tetanus and polio virus. Many evacuation centres were overcrowded. Conclusion: Evacuation centres are needed in almost every disaster. They should be safely located and equipped with the required amenities. In disaster-prone areas such as the Philippines, schools and community centres should not be designated as evacuation centres unless they are equipped with adequate sanitation services.

  9. Why Don't People Evacuate When Nature Threatens? (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.; Orlove, B. S.


    Why do so many Southern Californians fail to evacuate when warned that winter storms have critically raised the risk of a debris flow in their neighborhoods? Have they perhaps not seen or heeded news coverage of past debris flow events? Are they unaware that recent fires made the hillsides above them more prone to gravity-driven processes? Do they think they can wait to start their cars until they can actually see the flow coming? Or have they merely experienced too many "false alarms" in past years, and no longer put much stock in the judgment of public officials or the ability of scientists to judge debris flow risk? In preparation for a simulation study that will place decision makers in a virtual house in the California foothills during a winter storm event, we explore the reasons that people do and do not evacuate in the face of potential debris flows. Working in collaboration with the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project for Southern California, we are surveying hundreds of local residents, from debris-flow prone areas and from elsewhere in the state, to establish their baseline knowledge (and misconceptions) about, attitudes toward, information use regarding, and experience with debris flows. Initial interviews with residents of recently hit neighborhoods give qualitative data suggesting that false-alarm effects and underestimation of risk are driving factors; these surveys will provide quantitative evidence to extend those findings. We will discuss the results of this survey in the context of a comprehensive body of psychology research that seeks to explain why people frequently appear to ignore or discount hazard warnings: neglecting to insure their homes and crops (Kunreuther, 1984), failing to evacuate in the face of storms and fires (Baker, 1991; Packham, 1995), and (barring a recent, vivid event) showing little support for measures that would manage or mitigate future hazards (Kunreuther, 2006a, 2006b; Weber, 2006). We will also consider the

  10. Simulation Tool for Optimizing Non-Combatant Evacuation (STONE): Optimization of Evacuation Time and Transportation Resource Utilization (United States)


    Le gouvernement du Canada est responsable de la sécurité et du bien -être de tous les Canadiens. Le MAECD assume cette responsabilité pour les...evacuation centres [16]. It was anticipated that the tool developed would benefit planning requirements for lodging, food, and transportation out of the...handles CEPs who go directly to an EC (on their own) with- out going through an AP. This was not explicitly illustrated in Figure 5 to reduce the

  11. Evacuation characteristics of visually impaired people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Janne Gress; Dederichs, Anne


    -D). The mean free walking speed descending stairs for category C and D were found to be comparable with values found in Danish and Swedish guidelines. The walking speed of people with visible impairments was not affected by an increasing density on stairs to the same extent as the walking speed of able......-bodied adults. It was found that people with visual impairments were able to uphold a higher walking speed descending stairs than able-bodied adults for increasing person density. The initial walking speed on horizontal planes is lower than the value suggested by the N&M-model. The horizontal mean free walking...

  12. Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems (United States)


    information about the behavior of the algorithm. At the same time, we were also able to formulate various acceleration techniques in precise math terms...peer-reviewed journals : Number of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals : Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems Report Title...the algorithm. At the same time, we were also able to formulate various acceleration techniques in precise math terms (e.g. formulate them as

  13. Computational models of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Dabbaghian, Vahid


    Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

  14. Model reduction of parametrized systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ohlberger, Mario; Patera, Anthony; Rozza, Gianluigi; Urban, Karsten


    The special volume offers a global guide to new concepts and approaches concerning the following topics: reduced basis methods, proper orthogonal decomposition, proper generalized decomposition, approximation theory related to model reduction, learning theory and compressed sensing, stochastic and high-dimensional problems, system-theoretic methods, nonlinear model reduction, reduction of coupled problems/multiphysics, optimization and optimal control, state estimation and control, reduced order models and domain decomposition methods, Krylov-subspace and interpolatory methods, and applications to real industrial and complex problems. The book represents the state of the art in the development of reduced order methods. It contains contributions from internationally respected experts, guaranteeing a wide range of expertise and topics. Further, it reflects an important effor t, carried out over the last 12 years, to build a growing research community in this field. Though not a textbook, some of the chapters ca...

  15. Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures (United States)

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel


    Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We

  16. Thermodynamic modeling of complex systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Xiaodong

    been developed, which has avoided the numerical pitfalls of having more than three volume roots in the real application range. It has been shown that it is possible to directly use the original PC-SAFT parameters with the new universal constants for the systems considered in this thesis. Finally...... after an oil spill. Engineering thermodynamics could be applied in the state-of-the-art sonar products through advanced artificial technology, if the speed of sound, solubility and density of oil-seawater systems could be satisfactorily modelled. The addition of methanol or glycols into unprocessed well...... streams during subsea pipelines is necessary to inhibit gas hydrate formation, and the offshore reservoirs often mean complicated temperature and pressure conditions. Accurate description of the phase behavior and thermalphysical properties of complex systems containing petroleum fluids and polar...

  17. Mathematical Modeling of Constrained Hamiltonian Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaft, A.J. van der; Maschke, B.M.


    Network modelling of unconstrained energy conserving physical systems leads to an intrinsic generalized Hamiltonian formulation of the dynamics. Constrained energy conserving physical systems are directly modelled as implicit Hamiltonian systems with regard to a generalized Dirac structure on the

  18. Evacuated tubular collector utilizing a heat pipe. Progress report, May 1 1975--August 31, 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortabasi, U.; Fehlner, F.P.


    Research and development activities performed by the Corning Glass Works solar group during the period from May 1, 1975 to August 31, 1975 are reported. The analytical studies encompassed optical modeling of a modified cusp reflector, fresnel losses from tubular enclosures as a function of orientation, preliminary work on a digital Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing Computer Code and the determination of U/sub L/ losses as a function of vacuum level and temperature of the absorber. Compatible enclosure materials, wicks and working fluids were selected to assemble heat pipes for use as solar collector absorbers. Cusp reflectors with good accuracy were fabricated from various commercial bright aluminum sheet and their optical properties determined. Evacuation techniques were developed and special bake-out procedures were worked out to assemble the evacuated tubular collectors. The work on selective coatings narrowed down the field of potential absorber films to ''black chrome'' which has good stability in vacuum and the necessary ..cap alpha../epsilon value. Six different heat pipes and one flow-through absorber were fabricated and were partially characterized for thermal performance. Indoor and outdoor test facilities were completed and calibrated within proposed NBS standards. They are now available for parametric as well as true-life experiments with solar radiation.

  19. Emergency Responses and Health Consequences after the Fukushima Accident; Evacuation and Relocation. (United States)

    Hasegawa, A; Ohira, T; Maeda, M; Yasumura, S; Tanigawa, K


    The Fukushima accident was a compounding disaster following the strong earthquake and huge tsunami. The direct health effects of radiation were relatively well controlled considering the severity of the accident, not only among emergency workers but also residents. Other serious health issues include deaths during evacuation, collapse of the radiation emergency medical system, increased mortality among displaced elderly people and public healthcare issues in Fukushima residents. The Fukushima mental health and lifestyle survey disclosed that the Fukushima accident caused severe psychological distress in the residents from evacuation zones. In addition to psychiatric and mental health problems, there are lifestyle-related problems such as an increase proportion of those overweight, an increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia and changes in health-related behaviours among evacuees; all of which may lead to an increased cardiovascular disease risk in the future. The effects of a major nuclear accident on societies are diverse and enduring. The countermeasures should include disaster management, long-term general public health services, mental and psychological care, behavioural and societal support, in addition to efforts to mitigate the health effects attributable to radiation. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Incorporating emergency evacuation planning, through human reliability analysis, in the risk management of industrial installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A. Luquetti; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email:


    An industrial installation presents many risks in the form of the process hazards, such as fire, explosion, gas and radiation release. In these situations, workers may need to evacuate from the work environment as soon as possible. In this case, the emergency evacuation planning is a key element that involves an iterative process to identify the best evacuation routes and to estimate the time required to evacuate the area at risk. The mean aspects for a successful emergency evacuation are influenced by the type of human error and the severity of the initiator event. The aim of this paper is to present a methodological framework for the identification of the performance shaping factors and prediction of human error probabilities of the responsible by the emergency evacuation of the workers in an industrial installation, providing a proactive approach for the allocation of the human factors in the risk assessment of the industrial installation. (author)

  1. Are the dynamics of gastric evacuation of natural prey in a piscivorous flatfish different from what is going on in a gadoid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krog, C.; Andersen, Niels Gerner


    Despite the fact that the stomach of turbot Psetta maxima is a curved tube that forms a half circle, it was demonstrated that gastric evacuation in this predatory flatfish fed natural prey closely followed the surface-dependent cylinder model developed from studies on gadoids with a straight...

  2. Implementation Of Haversine Formula And Best First Search Method In Searching Of Tsunami Evacuation Route (United States)

    Anisya; Yoga Swara, Ganda


    Padang is one of the cities prone to earthquake disaster with tsunami due to its position at the meeting of two active plates, this is, a source of potentially powerful earthquake and tsunami. Central government and most offices are located in the red zone (vulnerable areas), it will also affect the evacuation of the population during the earthquake and tsunami disaster. In this study, researchers produced a system of search nearest shelter using best-first-search method. This method uses the heuristic function, the amount of cost taken and the estimated value or travel time, path length and population density. To calculate the length of the path, researchers used method of haversine formula. The value obtained from the calculation process is implemented on a web-based system. Some alternative paths and some of the closest shelters will be displayed in the system.

  3. Physical modeling of mine hoisting systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traube, E.S.; Sidenko, A.F.; Alistratova, I.E.


    Problems are discussed which are associated with use of physical models of hoisting systems for underground coal mines. Use of mathematical modeling and physical modeling is compared. Advantages of physical models are analyzed. Physical models are used for investigating control systems of electrical drives and brake systems for hoists as well as for investigating dynamic processes which occur during hoist operation in a coal mine. When physical models are used, effects of factors which are not considered by mathematical models are analyzed. Physical models also are used for verifying mathematical models. Construction of physical models of mine hoisting systems using cages or skips is evaluated. Criteria of similarity of a hoisting system being modeled and its physical model are reviewed. Recommendations for construction of physical models and their use for optimization of hoisting systems used in underground mining are made.

  4. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  5. Numerical Modeling of Microelectrochemical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adesokan, Bolaji James

    reaction term at the boundary. We investigate the effect of flow rates, scan rates, and concentration on the cyclic voltammetry. We establish that high flow rates lead to the reduced hysteresis in the cyclic voltammetry curves and increasing scan rates lead to more pronounced current peaks. The final part...... incorporates the finite size of ionic species in the transport equation. The model presents a more appropriate boundary conditions which describe the modified Butler-Volmer reaction kinetics and account for the surface capacitance of the thin electric double layer. We also have found analytical solution...... of the paper shows that the response current in a cyclic voltammetry increases proportionally to the electrolyte concentration. In the second paper we present an experiment of an electrochemical system in a microfluidc system and compare the result to the numerical solutions. We investigate how the position...

  6. Association of the World War II Finnish Evacuation of Children With Psychiatric Hospitalization in the Next Generation. (United States)

    Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Gilman, Stephen E


    Although there is evidence that adverse childhood experiences are associated with worse mental health in adulthood, scarce evidence is available regarding an emerging concern that the next generation might also be affected. To compare the risk of psychiatric hospitalization in cousins whose parents were vs were not exposed to the Finnish evacuation policy that involved a mean 2-year stay with a Swedish foster family. This multigenerational, population-based cohort study of Finnish individuals and their siblings born between January 1, 1933, and December 31, 1944, analyzed the association of evacuee status as a child during World War II in the first generation with the risk of psychiatric hospitalization among offspring in the second generation. Evacuee status during World War II was determined using the Finnish National Archive's registry of participants in the Finnish evacuation. Data on evacuee status were linked to the psychiatric diagnoses in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register from January 1, 1971, through December 31, 2012, for offspring (n = 93 391) born between January 1, 1950, and December 31, 2010. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios for risk of psychiatric hospitalization during the follow-up period. Because offspring of evacuees and their nonevacuated siblings are cousins, the Cox proportional hazards regression models included fixed effects to adjust for confounding factors in families. Data analysis was performed from June 15, 2016, to August 26, 2017. Parental participation in the evacuation during World War II (coded 1 for parents who were evacuated and placed in foster care and 0 for those not evacuated). Offspring's initial admission to the hospital for a psychiatric disorder, obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register from January 1, 1971, through December 31, 2012. Of the 93 391 study persons, 45 955 (49.2%) were women and 47 436 (50.8) were men; mean (SD) age in

  7. 75 FR 79034 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Escape and Evacuation Plans (Pertains to... (United States)


    ... information is required with each escape and evacuation plan submission: (1) Mine maps or diagrams showing...) A statement of the availability of emergency communication and transportation facilities, emergency...

  8. Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem (United States)

    Wood, Nathan; Jones, Jeanne; Schelling, John; Schmidtlein, Mathew


    Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.

  9. Modeling learning technology systems as business systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avgeriou, Paris; Retalis, Symeon; Papaspyrou, Nikolaos


    The design of Learning Technology Systems, and the Software Systems that support them, is largely conducted on an intuitive, ad hoc basis, thus resulting in inefficient systems that defectively support the learning process. There is now justifiable, increasing effort in formalizing the engineering

  10. Reservoir Model Information System: REMIS (United States)

    Lee, Sang Yun; Lee, Kwang-Wu; Rhee, Taehyun; Neumann, Ulrich


    We describe a novel data visualization framework named Reservoir Model Information System (REMIS) for the display of complex and multi-dimensional data sets in oil reservoirs. It is aimed at facilitating visual exploration and analysis of data sets as well as user collaboration in an easier way. Our framework consists of two main modules: the data access point module and the data visualization module. For the data access point module, the Phrase-Driven Grammar System (PDGS) is adopted for helping users facilitate the visualization of data. It integrates data source applications and external visualization tools and allows users to formulate data query and visualization descriptions by selecting graphical icons in a menu or on a map with step-by-step visual guidance. For the data visualization module, we implemented our first prototype of an interactive volume viewer named REMVR to classify and to visualize geo-spatial specific data sets. By combining PDGS and REMVR, REMIS assists users better in describing visualizations and exploring data so that they can easily find desired data and explore interesting or meaningful relationships including trends and exceptions in oil reservoir model data.

  11. Electromagnetic antenna modeling (EAM) system (United States)

    Packer, Malcolm; Powers, Robert; Tsitsopoulos, Paul


    The determination of foreign communications capabilities and intent is an important assessment function performed by the USAF National Air Intelligence Center (NAIC). In this context, Rome Laboratory became the NAIC engineering agent for the development of an NAIC requirement for the rapid analysis and evaluation of antenna structures based on often vague to sometimes detailed dimensional information. To this end, the Rome Laboratory sponsored development of the Electromagnetic Antenna Modeling (EAM) System, a state-of-the-art Pascal program with an MS Windows graphical user interface (GUI) pre- and post-processor. Users of NAIC capabilities initiate antenna analysis efforts that range from simple parametric studies to more complex, detailed antenna design and communication-system evaluations. Accordingly, EAM provides a modeling capability 'matched' to the sophistication of the individual analyst, with features appropriate for users ranging from nontechnical analysts to experienced antenna engineers. This capability is particularly valuable in the military-intelligence environment, in which high-speed assessments are required. In particular, EAM meets the specific antenna-analysis requirements of NAIC with a versatile graphical user interface.

  12. Modelling and Simulation of Grid Connected SPV System with Active Power Filtering Features (United States)

    Saroha, Jaipal; Pandove, Gitanjali; Singh, Mukhtiar


    In this paper, the detailed simulation studies for a grid connected solar photovoltaic system (SPV) have been presented. The power electronics devices like DC-DC boost converter and grid interfacing inverter are most important components of proposed system. Here, the DC-DC boost converter is controlled to extract maximum power out of SPV under different irradiation levels, while the grid interfacing inverter is utilized to evacuate the active power and feed it into grid at synchronized voltage and frequency. Moreover, the grid interfacing inverter is also controlled to sort out the issues related to power quality by compensating the reactive power and harmonics current component of nearby load at point of common coupling. Besides, detailed modeling of various component utilized in proposed system is also presented. Finally, extensive simulations have been performed under different irradiation levels with various kinds of load to validate the aforementioned claims. The overall system design and simulation have been performed by using Sim Power System toolbox available in the library of MATLAB.

  13. Graphical Model Debugger Framework for Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Kebin; Guo, Yu; Angelov, Christo K.


    Debugger Framework, providing an auxiliary avenue of analysis of system models at runtime by executing generated code and updating models synchronously, which allows embedded developers to focus on the model level. With the model debugger, embedded developers can graphically test their design model...... and check the running status of the system, which offers a debugging capability on a higher level of abstraction. The framework intends to contribute a tool to the Eclipse society, especially suitable for model-driven development of embedded systems....

  14. Structuring Problem Analysis for Embedded Systems Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marincic, J.; Mader, Angelika H.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Lucas, Yan

    Our interest is embedded systems validation as part of the model-driven approach. To design a model, the modeller needs to obtain knowledge about the system and decide what is relevant to model and how. A part of the modelling activities is inherently informal - it cannot be formalised in such a way

  15. Design of novel hybrid control solar tracking system (United States)

    Chao, Jiang; Wu, Zhu; Yun, Hu Yu; Xuan, Tu Yun; Yu, Wu Jun


    This paper describes a hybrid control solar tracking system consisted of sunlight gathering platform, mechanical structure and MCU controller system which is mainly based on time and light dependent resistors module. An adaptive calibration and operating algorithm are proposed to solve accumulated error for inaccuracy sun position model and servo system error of single axis solar tracking system, which can make the focused sunlight matching the solar evacuated tube well. The proposed system and algorithm effectively will improve the utilization of solar energy.

  16. Modelling gastric evacuation in gadoids feeding on crustaceans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner; Chabot, Denis; Couturier, C. S.


    Gadus morhua or whiting Merlangius merlangus and recovered from the stomachs at different post-prandial times. The prey species were krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica; shrimps and prawns Crangon crangon, Pandalus borealis, Pandalus montagui and Eualus macilentus; crabs Liocarcinus depurator...

  17. Laryngeal Cuff Force Application Modeling During Air Medical Evacuation Simulation. (United States)

    Eisenbrey, David; Eisenbrey, Arthur B; Pettengill, Patrick


    Endotracheal tubes are intended to protect the airway and assist with mechanical ventilation in sedated patients. The blood vessels of the tracheal mucosa can be compressed by high tracheal tube cuff pressures (> 30 cm H2O), leading to reduced mucosal blood flow with resulting ischemia and morbidity. Previous research showed a direct correlation between aircraft pressure altitude and the pressure reading from the tracheal cuff, with resulting pressures > 80 cm H2O at 10,000 ft. Standard practice is to periodically remove air from the cuff during ascent based on assumed increased pressure on the adjacent tracheal mucosa. Using a vacuum chamber and a direct reading micropressure sensor in a 22-mm-diameter semirigid tube, we assessed the direct force applied by the tracheal cuff against the laryngeal tube analog. Standard tracheal cuffs showed direct force/pressure relationships when properly inflated to 20 cm H2O but much less than reported in the literature. Current literature reports values of 55 to 150 cm H2O at 5,000 ft, whereas we report 23 to 25 cm H2O. Our data indicate that a properly inflated cuff does not exceed the critical pressure of 30 cm H2O until the altitude exceeds 8,000 ft. Thus, the standard practice of deflating the laryngeal cuff on ascent should be reconsidered because it may be counterproductive to patient safety. Copyright © 2016 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation (United States)


    1303.4629. 15. Leskovec J, Backstrom L, Kleinberg J (2009) Meme -tracking and the dynamics of the news cycle. Proc 15th ACM SIGKDD : 497505. 16. Leskovec J...2011) Memes online: Extracted, subtracted, injected, and recollected. Proc 5th Int AAAI Conf on Weblogs and Social Media : 353–360. 21. Watts DJ (2002) A

  19. Particle Tracking Model (PTM) with Coastal Modeling System (CMS) (United States)


    Coastal Inlets Research Program Particle Tracking Model ( PTM ) with Coastal Modeling System (CMS) The Particle Tracking Model ( PTM ) is a Lagrangian...currents and waves. The Coastal Inlets Research Program (CIRP) supports the PTM with the Coastal Modeling System (CMS), which provides coupled wave...and current forcing for PTM simulations. CMS- PTM is implemented in the Surface-water Modeling System, a GUI environment for input development

  20. Fire and evacuation drills make the CERN safety plans work

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso


    Regular drills are a way of making sure that we are ready and able to react in the event of a fire or other adverse event. They are also a demanding test of all the technical and organisational measures in place to allow the quick and safe evacuation of buildings. Recently, large-scale drills took place in Building 40 and at Point 5 underground.   Group photo at Point 5, after the common evacuation drill. The ability to react to unexpected, adverse events relies in particular on training. This is why CERN’s safety teams organise regular drills. One of the most recent exercises took place on 26 March in Building 40. “Building 40 is a modern building fully equipped against fire, with two emergency exits in the central atrium. We also have 29 emergency guides distributed on each floor to guide people out of their offices,” says Kate Richardson, Territorial Safety Officer of the building. “The drills are very useful for testing the building's insta...

  1. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.


    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  2. Co-evolution of intelligent socio-technical systems modelling and applications in large scale emergency and transport domains

    CERN Document Server


    As the interconnectivity between humans through technical devices is becoming ubiquitous, the next step is already in the making: ambient intelligence, i.e. smart (technical) environments, which will eventually play the same active role in communication as the human players, leading to a co-evolution in all domains where real-time communication is essential. This topical volume, based on the findings of the Socionical European research project, gives equal attention to two highly relevant domains of applications: transport, specifically traffic, dynamics from the viewpoint of a socio-technical interaction and evacuation scenarios for large-scale emergency situations. Care was taken to investigate as much as possible the limits of scalability and to combine the modeling using complex systems science approaches with relevant data analysis.

  3. Neuman systems model in holland: an update. (United States)

    Merks, André; Verberk, Frans; de Kuiper, Marlou; Lowry, Lois W


    The authors of this column, leading members of the International Neuman Systems Model Association, provide an update on the use of Neuman systems model in Holland and document the various changes in The Netherlands that have influenced the use of the model in that country. The model's link to systems theory and stress theory are discussed, as well as a shift to greater emphasis on patient self-management. The model is also linked to healthcare quality improvement and interprofessional collaboration in Holland.

  4. MOSS : a model for open system security



    Ph.D This thesis looks at current security problems within open system environments, that is security problems within heterogeneous computer system environments that are interconnected via computer networks. Thereafter two security models, Kerberos and the Path Context Model, are considered together with their respective ability to address these security problems. Using concepts of the Path Context Model, a new security model, called MOSS (Model for Open System Security), is developed and ...

  5. Modeling human operator involvement in robotic systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wewerinke, P.H.


    A modeling approach is presented to describe complex manned robotic systems. The robotic system is modeled as a (highly) nonlinear, possibly time-varying dynamic system including any time delays in terms of optimal estimation, control and decision theory. The role of the human operator(s) is modeled

  6. Externalizing Behaviour for Analysing System Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, René Rydhof; Kammüller, Florian

    Systems models have recently been introduced to model organisationsandevaluate their vulnerability to threats and especially insiderthreats. Especially for the latter these models are very suitable, since insiders can be assumed to have more knowledge about the attacked organisation than outside

  7. Alternatives to evacuation during wildland fire: Exploring adaptive capacity in one Idaho community (United States)

    Travis B. Paveglio; Matthew S. Caroll; Pamela J. Jakes


    The use of alternatives to evacuation during wildfire events continues to be an intensely debated strategy in the professional and policy circles of numerous fire-prone countries. The most recent chapter comes in response to the Black Saturday Fires in Australia, which has led to policy changes concerning alternatives to evacuation in both Australia and USA. This study...

  8. Improving an inherently stressful situation: the role of communication during wildfire evacuations (United States)

    Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Bruce. Schinder


    Wildfire evacuations are inherently stressful and homeowners have reported in previous studies that uncertainty over what is happening is perhaps one of the most stressful aspects. Although many difficult elements of evacuation cannot be mitigated and lives will certainly be disrupted, fire-management agencies can significantly reduce residents' uncertainty with...

  9. Wildfire evacuation and its alternatives: perspectives from four United States' communities (United States)

    Sarah McCaffrey; Alan Rhodes; Melanie. Stidham


    Recent years have seen growing interest within the United States fire management community in exploring alternatives to the standard approach of evacuating entire populations that are threatened by a wildfire. There has been particular interest in what can be learned from the Australian approach, whereby residents choose whether or not to evacuate under the '...

  10. Coordinating Hunger: The Evacuation of Children During the Dutch Food Crisis, 1945

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zwarte, I.


    The evacuation of Dutch children during the so-called ‘Hunger Winter’ of 1944/1945 is one of the canonized stories of the German occupation of the Netherlands. In the most common version of the story, a Dutch interdenominational organization managed to evacuate 40,000 to 50,000 starving children

  11. Risk factors for pet evacuation failure after a slow-onset disaster. (United States)

    Heath, S E; Beck, A M; Kass, P H; Glickman, L T


    To determine risk factors for pet evacuation failure during a flood. Cross-sectional survey. 203 pet-owning households in a flooded region. Persons under evacuation notice because of a flood were interviewed by use of a random telephone survey. 102 households evacuated with their pets, whereas 101 households evacuated without their pets. Low pet attachment and commitment scores were significantly associated with a greater chance of pet evacuation failure. Risk of pet evacuation failure and lower attachment and commitment scores were also associated with pet management practices prior to the disaster, such as dogs being kept outdoors most of the time or owners not having carriers for their cats. More than 90% of owners made housing arrangements for their pets without assistance. Predictors of pet evacuation failure are usually present before a disaster strikes and are potentially modifiable. Mitigation of pet evacuation failure should focus on activities that reinforce responsible pet ownership and strengthen the human-animal bond, including socializing dogs, attending dog behavior training classes, transporting cats in nondisaster times, and seeking regular preventive veterinary care. Most pet owners are self-reliant in disasters, and this behavior should be encouraged.

  12. 75 FR 49507 - Recovery Policy, RP9525.4, Emergency Medical Care and Medical Evacuations (United States)


    ... SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency Recovery Policy, RP9525.4, Emergency Medical Care and Medical..., Emergency Medical Care and Medical Evacuations. This is an existing policy that is scheduled for review to... policy identifies the extraordinary emergency medical care and medical evacuation expenses that are...

  13. 78 FR 13325 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Research on Evacuating Persons With Mobility... (United States)


    ... discussion that will lead to guidance for designers and building managers on aspects of fire evacuation that... fire evacuations. This research aims to provide guidance to designers and building managers on aspects...) Building managers and designated safety personnel from a sample of four to ten existing and new federal...

  14. A Dynamic Optimization Method of Indoor Fire Evacuation Route Based on Real-time Situation Awareness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DING Yulin


    Full Text Available How to provide safe and effective evacuation routes is an important safeguard to correctly guide evacuation and reduce the casualties during the fire situation rapidly evolving in complex indoor environment. The traditional static path finding method is difficult to adjust the path adaptively according to the changing fire situation, which lead to the evacuation decision-making blindness and hysteresis. This paper proposes a dynamic method which can dynamically optimize the indoor evacuation routes based on the real-time situation awareness. According to the real-time perception of fire situation parameters and the changing indoor environment information, the evacuation route is optimized dynamically. The integrated representation of multisource indoor fire monitoring sensor observations oriented fire emergency evacuation is presented at first, real-time fire threat situation information inside building is then extracted from the observation data of multi-source sensors, which is used to constrain the dynamical optimization of the topology of the evacuation route. Finally, the simulation experiments prove that this method can improve the accuracy and efficiency of indoor evacuation routing.

  15. 78 FR 61223 - Regulated Navigation Area; Southern Oahu Tsunami Vessel Evacuation, Honolulu, HI (United States)


    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 RIN 1625-AA00 Regulated Navigation Area; Southern Oahu Tsunami Vessel... evacuation of Southern Oahu ports. DATES: Comments and related material must be received by the Coast Guard... Southern Oahu Tsunami Vessel Evacuation regulated navigation area. All recommendations received careful...

  16. Model Information Exchange System (MIXS). (United States)


    Many travel demand forecast models operate at state, regional, and local levels. While they share the same physical network in overlapping geographic areas, they use different and uncoordinated modeling networks. This creates difficulties for models ...

  17. Models for multimegawatt space power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenburn, M.W.


    This report describes models for multimegawatt, space power systems which Sandia's Advanced Power Systems Division has constructed to help evaluate space power systems for SDI's Space Power Office. Five system models and models for associated components are presented for both open (power system waste products are exhausted into space) and closed (no waste products) systems: open, burst mode, hydrogen cooled nuclear reactor -- turboalternator system; open, hydrogen-oxygen combustion turboalternator system; closed, nuclear reactor powered Brayton cycle system; closed, liquid metal Rankine cycle system; and closed, in-core, reactor therminonic system. The models estimate performance and mass for the components in each of these systems. 17 refs., 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  18. Time matters: post-surgical recovery of gastric evacuation rate in Atlantic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Behrens, Jane; Gräns, Albin; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    GER was affected after surgically introducing dummies of a blood-flow biotelemetry system into the abdominal cavity of Atlantic cod. Two days post surgery the cod with implants were, together with a control group, force-fed a standardized meal and the stomach contents recovered 24h later...... into the fish, which may affect the animal, and studies dealing with the affect of surgery and implants are still scarce. A variable known to be sensitive to postsurgical and other stressors is the gastric evacuation rate (GER). GER is tightly linked to gut blood flow and in the present study we analysed how...... of postsurgical recovery will stabilize GER in cod. The results indicate that the presence of the implant per se did not affect GER but that the effects observed came from surgery and/or postsurgical stress. 10 days should consequently be a starting point for future studies even if longer recovery periods...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.E. Vieira


    Full Text Available This work presents the principles of operation of a solar refrigerator with the following basic components: a reactor, a set of evacuated tube solar collectors, a condenser, a heat exchanger, and an evaporator. During the heating phase, solar radiation is collected and transferred to the reactor for desorption by a vapor thermal siphon loop. During the cooling phase, heat from the reactor is released to the ambient by a second water vapor loop. Ambient data collected daily during a period of 18 years were divided into hourly values and used to simulate the temperatures of the reactor, which uses salt impregnated with graphite and ammonia, during the adsorption / desorption processes. The results show that the refrigerator operates well in Fortaleza and that better results are expected for the countryside of the state of Ceara. It is concluded that only a high efficiency collector set can be used in the system


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. UBALE


    Full Text Available In the present experimental study an evacuated tube solar collector is designed, fabricated and its performance is tested in the force convection mode of heat transfer. The solar collector is designed for the grape dryer of capacity 10kg per batch. Experiments are carried out in the month of April to produce raisins for Thomson Seedless grapes, with initial moisture content of 77 (kg per kg on wet basis% to final moisture content of 19 (kg per kg on wet basis% in 36 hours. Raisins produced from this system are tested for varies parameters to check its quality and found satisfactory results. The average collector efficiency is found to be 23.4%.

  1. Aeromedical evacuation of combat patients by military critical care air transport teams with a lower hemoglobin threshold approach is safe. (United States)

    Mora, Alejandra G; Ervin, Alicia T; Ganem, Victoria J; Bebarta, Vikhyat S


    Military critical care air transport teams (CCATT) evacuate critically ill and injured patients out of theater for tertiary treatment. Teams are led by a physician, nurse, and respiratory technician. Current aeromedical guidelines require a hemoglobin (Hgb) of 9 g/dL or greater to evacuate; however, civilians report that an Hgb of 8 g/dL or less is safe in critically ill patients. This study aimed to compare postflight short-term and 30-day patient outcomes for CCATT patients evacuated out of theater with an Hgb of 8 g/dL or less with those with an Hgb of greater than 8 g/dL. We conducted a retrospective record review of all traumatically injured patients evacuated from theater by CCATT between March 2007 and December 2011. We recorded demographics, injury descriptions, vital signs, laboratory values, adverse events, and disposition at 30 days. Patients were separated into those with a preflight Hgb of 8 g/dL or less versus those with greater than 8 g/dL. Continuous data were analyzed using Student's t tests or Wilcoxon tests and reported as mean ± SD. χ or Fisher's exact tests were performed. Stepwise, multifactorial logistic regression models were used. Statistical significance was considered with p < 0.05. Of 1,252 patients, 1,033 had a preflight Hgb of greater than 8 and 219 had an Hgb of 8 or less. Age, sex proportions, vitals, laboratory values, and Injury Severity Score (ISS; 24±13) were similar. The group with 8 or less had more blast injuries (68% vs. 76%, p = 0.01). No associations were identified between preflight Hgb levels and adverse outcomes. Disposition at 30 days was similar. We also compared preflight Hgb greater than 7 versus 7 or less (n = 1,212 vs. 45). Those with an Hgb greater than 7 had a greater incidence of hospitalization at 30 days (77% vs. 67%, p = 0.04). The group with an Hgb of 7 or less had more subjects discharged home or returning to duty (10% vs. 21%, p = 0.04). Evacuating CCATT patients with an Hgb of 8 or less had similar

  2. Graphical Model Debugger Framework for Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Kebin


    Model Driven Software Development has offered a faster way to design and implement embedded real-time software by moving the design to a model level, and by transforming models to code. However, the testing of embedded systems has remained at the code level. This paper presents a Graphical Model...... Debugger Framework, providing an auxiliary avenue of analysis of system models at runtime by executing generated code and updating models synchronously, which allows embedded developers to focus on the model level. With the model debugger, embedded developers can graphically test their design model...

  3. Elementary students' evacuation route choice in a classroom: A questionnaire-based method (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Song, Ziqi


    Children evacuation is a critical but challenging issue. Unfortunately, existing researches fail to effectively describe children evacuation, which is likely due to the lack of experimental and empirical data. In this paper, a questionnaire-based experiment was conducted with children aged 8-12 years to study children route choice behavior during evacuation from in a classroom with two exits. 173 effective questionnaires were collected and the corresponding data were analyzed. From the statistical results, we obtained the following findings: (1) position, congestion, group behavior, and backtracking behavior have significant effects on children route choice during evacuation; (2) age only affects children backtracking behavior, and (3) no prominent effects based on gender and guidance were observed. The above findings may help engineers design some effective evacuation strategies for children.

  4. Coarse-grained particle model for pedestrian flow using diffusion maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marschler, Christian; Starke, Jens; Liu, Ping


    Interacting particle systems constitute the dynamic model of choice in a variety of application areas. A prominent example is pedestrian dynamics, where good design of escape routes for large buildings and public areas can improve evacuation in emergency situations, avoiding exit blocking...

  5. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal


    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  6. Comparison of Photovoltaic Models in the System Advisor Model: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blair, N. J.; Dobos, A. P.; Gilman, P.


    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is free software developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for predicting the performance of renewable energy systems and analyzing the financial feasibility of residential, commercial, and utility-scale grid-connected projects. SAM offers several options for predicting the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The model requires that the analyst choose from three PV system models, and depending on that choice, possibly choose from three module and two inverter component models. To obtain meaningful results from SAM, the analyst must be aware of the differences between the model options and their applicability to different modeling scenarios. This paper presents an overview the different PV model options and presents a comparison of results for a 200-kW system using different model options.

  7. Radioactive waste evacuation of the sources of a low dose rate brachytherapy unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serrada, A.; Huerga, C.; Santa Olalla, I.; Vicedo, A.; Corredoira, E.; Plaza, R.; Vidal, J.; Tellez, M. [La Paz Hospital, Madrid (Spain)


    Introduction The second class Radioactive Installation start -up authorization makes responsible for its security to the installation exploiter and supervisor. The specifications established in the authorization, which are mandatory, point out several actions, some of these actions are the hermeticity tests of radioactive sources an radiologic controls of environment dosimetry. It is necessary to optimize the time spent in each activity, managing them as reasonably as possible. An important matter to take into account is to keep and control only those radioactive or radiological equipment which, even if are in work, have an appropriate performance for the patient treatment Material And Method a Paz hospital has an intracavity brachytherapy (L.D.R.), Curietron model. The Radioprotection Department proposed to remove from service the unit due to its age, this was carried out by the Commission of Guarantee and Quality Control. There were different solutions taken into account to decommission the unit, finally the option chosen as the most convenient for the installation was to manage directly the withdrawal of the radioactive material which consisted of seven Cs-137 probes model CsM1 and total nominal certificated activity of 7770 MBq ( 210 mCi ) dated in May 2005. It also has to be considered as a radioactive waste the inner storage elements of the Curietron and the transport and storage curie stock, built with depleted uranium. To accomplish this aim an evacuation container was designed consisting of an alloy of low-melting point (M.C.P.96), which fulfills the transport conditions imposed by E.N.R.E.S.A. ( Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radiactivos, S.A). A theoretical calculation was performed to estimate the thickness of the shield which adequate to the rate of dose in contact demanded. Accuracy of these calculations has been verified using T.L. dosimetry. Results The radiation levels during the extraction intervention of the radioactive probes and its transfer to

  8. Performance of sealed evacuated panels as thermal insulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodt, K.H.; Bart, G.C.J. (Technische Hogeschool Delft (Netherlands))


    The CFC-blown polyurethane foam currently used as thermal insulation will be banned in the future because of the environmental impact of chlorofluorocarbons. This requires the use of other blowing agents, which often do not possess the same low thermal conductivity as, for example, CFC11. Evacuated panels avoid these environmental problems and can possesses lower conductivity than rigid foams. It is believed that they are a promising option in spite of the major problem of maintaining the vacuum for a decade or longer. They require: (a) a leak-free sealing and a covering with an extremely low gas permeability; (b) a low and stable inner pressure; (c) an infra-red absorbing filler which withstands outside pressure. The foils used for sealing these panels will influence the overall thermal conductivity, especially if they are, for reason of vacuum tightness, metal coated. (Author)

  9. Towards Modelling of Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisniewski, Rafal


    The article is an attempt to use methods of category theory and topology for analysis of hybrid systems. We use the notion of a directed topological space; it is a topological space together with a set of privileged paths. Dynamical systems are examples of directed topological spaces. A hybrid...... system consists of a number of dynamical systems that are glued together according to information encoded in the discrete part of the system. We develop a definition of a hybrid system as a functor from the category generated by a transition system to the category of directed topological spaces. Its...... directed homotopy colimit (geometric realization) is a single directed topological space. The behavior of hybrid systems can be then understood in terms of the behavior of dynamical systems through the directed homotopy colimit....

  10. Hydrological modelling in forested systems (United States)

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological p...

  11. Automated Modeling of Physical Systems (United States)


    models. For example, Hooke’s law [ Halliday and Resnick , 1978] is an ordinary differential equation that 18 CHAPTER 2. MODELS AND MODEL FRAGMENTS...derivatives. Hence, they can be used to represent equilibrium, lumped parameter device models. For exam- ple, Ohm’s law [ Halliday and Resnick , 1978] is an...magnetic fields [ Halliday and Resnick , 1978], cr as magnetic circuits [Coren, 1989]. However, these different on- tologies are used for different

  12. Thermal performance of evacuated tube heat pipe solar collector (United States)

    Putra, Nandy; Kristian, M. R.; David, R.; Haliansyah, K.; Ariantara, Bambang


    The high fossil energy consumption not only causes the scarcity of energy but also raises problems of global warming. Increasing needs of fossil fuel could be reduced through the utilization of solar energy by using solar collectors. Indonesia has the abundant potential for solar energy, but non-renewable energy sources still dominate energy consumption. With heat pipe as passive heat transfer device, evacuated tube solar collector is expected to heat up water for industrial and home usage without external power supply needed to circulate water inside the solar collector. This research was conducted to determine the performance of heat pipe-based evacuated tube solar collector as solar water heater experimentally. The experiments were carried out using stainless steel screen mesh as a wick material, and water and Al2O3-water 0.1% nanofluid as working fluid, and applying inclination angles of 0°, 15°, 30°, and 45°. To analyze the heat absorbed and transferred by the prototype, water at 30°C was circulated through the condenser. A 150 Watt halogen lamp was used as sun simulator, and the prototype was covered by an insulation box to obtain a steady state condition with a minimum affection of ambient changes. Experimental results show that the usage of Al2O3-water 0.1% nanofluid at 30° inclination angle provides the highest thermal performance, which gives efficiency as high as 0.196 and thermal resistance as low as 5.32 °C/W. The use of nanofluid as working fluid enhances thermal performance due to high thermal conductivity of the working fluid. The increase of the inclination angle plays a role in the drainage of the condensate to the evaporator that leads to higher thermal performance until the optimal inclination angle is reached.

  13. Service systems concepts, modeling, and programming

    CERN Document Server

    Cardoso, Jorge; Poels, Geert


    This SpringerBrief explores the internal workings of service systems. The authors propose a lightweight semantic model for an effective representation to capture the essence of service systems. Key topics include modeling frameworks, service descriptions and linked data, creating service instances, tool support, and applications in enterprises.Previous books on service system modeling and various streams of scientific developments used an external perspective to describe how systems can be integrated. This brief introduces the concept of white-box service system modeling as an approach to mo

  14. Modeling, Control and Coordination of Helicopter Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ren, Beibei; Chen, Chang; Fua, Cheng-Heng; Lee, Tong Heng


    Modeling, Control and Coordination of Helicopter Systems provides a comprehensive treatment of helicopter systems, ranging from related nonlinear flight dynamic modeling and stability analysis to advanced control design for single helicopter systems, and also covers issues related to the coordination and formation control of multiple helicopter systems to achieve high performance tasks. Ensuring stability in helicopter flight is a challenging problem for nonlinear control design and development. This book is a valuable reference on modeling, control and coordination of helicopter systems,providing readers with practical solutions for the problems that still plague helicopter system design and implementation. Readers will gain a complete picture of helicopters at the systems level, as well as a better understanding of the technical intricacies involved. This book also: Presents a complete picture of modeling, control and coordination for helicopter systems Provides a modeling platform for a general class of ro...

  15. Modeling and simulation of systems using Matlab and Simulink

    CERN Document Server

    Chaturvedi, Devendra K


    Introduction to SystemsSystemClassification of SystemsLinear SystemsTime-Varying vs. Time-Invariant Systems Lumped vs. Distributed Parameter SystemsContinuous- and Discrete-Time Systems Deterministic vs. Stochastic Systems Hard and Soft Systems Analysis of Systems Synthesis of Systems Introduction to System Philosophy System Thinking Large and Complex Applied System Engineering: A Generic ModelingSystems ModelingIntroduction Need of System Modeling Modeling Methods for Complex Systems Classification of ModelsCharacteristics of Models ModelingMathematical Modeling of Physical SystemsFormulation of State Space Model of SystemsPhysical Systems Theory System Components and Interconnections Computation of Parameters of a Component Single Port and Multiport Systems Techniques of System Analysis Basics of Linear Graph Theoretic ApproachFormulation of System Model for Conceptual SystemFormulation System Model for Physical SystemsTopological RestrictionsDevelopment of State Model of Degenerative SystemSolution of Stat...

  16. Network and adaptive system of systems modeling and analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawton, Craig R.; Campbell, James E. Dr. (.; .); Anderson, Dennis James; Eddy, John P.


    This report documents the results of an LDRD program entitled ''Network and Adaptive System of Systems Modeling and Analysis'' that was conducted during FY 2005 and FY 2006. The purpose of this study was to determine and implement ways to incorporate network communications modeling into existing System of Systems (SoS) modeling capabilities. Current SoS modeling, particularly for the Future Combat Systems (FCS) program, is conducted under the assumption that communication between the various systems is always possible and occurs instantaneously. A more realistic representation of these communications allows for better, more accurate simulation results. The current approach to meeting this objective has been to use existing capabilities to model network hardware reliability and adding capabilities to use that information to model the impact on the sustainment supply chain and operational availability.

  17. Adaptive System Modeling for Spacecraft Simulation (United States)

    Thomas, Justin


    This invention introduces a methodology and associated software tools for automatically learning spacecraft system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques were used to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). Evaluation on historical ISS telemetry data shows that adaptive system modeling reduces simulation error anywhere from 50 to 90 percent over existing approaches. The purpose of the methodology is to outline how someone can create accurate system models from sensor (telemetry) data. The purpose of the software is to support the methodology. The software provides analysis tools to design the adaptive models. The software also provides the algorithms to initially build system models and continuously update them from the latest streaming sensor data. The main strengths are as follows: Creates accurate spacecraft system models without in-depth system knowledge or any assumptions about system behavior. Automatically updates/calibrates system models using the latest streaming sensor data. Creates device specific models that capture the exact behavior of devices of the same type. Adapts to evolving systems. Can reduce computational complexity (faster simulations).

  18. On Verification Modelling of Embedded Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, Hendrik; Mader, Angelika H.

    Computer-aided verification of embedded systems hinges on the availability of good verification models of the systems at hand. Such models must be much simpler than full design models or specifications to be of practical value, because of the unavoidable combinatorial complexities in the

  19. Applying Modeling Tools to Ground System Procedures (United States)

    Di Pasquale, Peter


    As part of a long-term effort to revitalize the Ground Systems (GS) Engineering Section practices, Systems Modeling Language (SysML) and Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) have been used to model existing GS products and the procedures GS engineers use to produce them.

  20. Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strubbe, S.N.


    In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete

  1. Transforming Graphical System Models to Graphical Attack Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, Rene Rydhof


    approach to transforming graphical system models to graphical attack models in the form of attack trees. Based on an asset in the model, our transformations result in an attack tree that represents attacks by all possible actors in the model, after which the actor in question has obtained the asset....

  2. Modeling the vagus nerve system with the Unified Modeling Language

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Widya, I.A.; Marani, Enrico


    Traditionally, the means of describing anatomical and physiological structures of the autonomic nervous system is natural language, drawings and images as represented in the scientific literature. In behavioral studies of this system, mathematical and electrical models and computer simulation tools

  3. Identifying Optimal Models to Represent Biochemical Systems (United States)

    Apri, Mochamad; de Gee, Maarten; van Mourik, Simon; Molenaar, Jaap


    Biochemical systems involving a high number of components with intricate interactions often lead to complex models containing a large number of parameters. Although a large model could describe in detail the mechanisms that underlie the system, its very large size may hinder us in understanding the key elements of the system. Also in terms of parameter identification, large models are often problematic. Therefore, a reduced model may be preferred to represent the system. Yet, in order to efficaciously replace the large model, the reduced model should have the same ability as the large model to produce reliable predictions for a broad set of testable experimental conditions. We present a novel method to extract an “optimal” reduced model from a large model to represent biochemical systems by combining a reduction method and a model discrimination method. The former assures that the reduced model contains only those components that are important to produce the dynamics observed in given experiments, whereas the latter ensures that the reduced model gives a good prediction for any feasible experimental conditions that are relevant to answer questions at hand. These two techniques are applied iteratively. The method reveals the biological core of a model mathematically, indicating the processes that are likely to be responsible for certain behavior. We demonstrate the algorithm on two realistic model examples. We show that in both cases the core is substantially smaller than the full model. PMID:24416170

  4. Modeling Control Situations in Power System Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saleem, Arshad; Lind, Morten; Singh, Sri Niwas


    Increased interconnection and loading of the power system along with deregulation has brought new challenges for electric power system operation, control and automation. Traditional power system models used in intelligent operation and control are highly dependent on the task purpose. Thus, a model...... of explicit principles for model construction. This paper presents a work on using explicit means-ends model based reasoning about complex control situations which results in maintaining consistent perspectives and selecting appropriate control action for goal driven agents. An example of power system...... for intelligent operation and control must represent system features, so that information from measurements can be related to possible system states and to control actions. These general modeling requirements are well understood, but it is, in general, difficult to translate them into a model because of the lack...

  5. A Community Approach to Earth Systems Modeling (United States)

    Voinov, Alexey A.; DeLuca, Cecelia; Hood, Raleigh R.; Peckham, Scott; Sherwood, Christopher R.; Syvitski, James P. M.


    Earth science often deals with complex systems spanning multiple disciplines. These systems are best described by integrated models built with contributions from specialists of many backgrounds. But building integrated models can be difficult; modular and hierarchical approaches help to manage the increasing complexity of these modeling systems, but there is a need for framework and integration methods and standards to support modularity. Complex models require many data and generate lots of output, so software and standards are required for data handling, model output, data distribution services, and user interfaces. Complex modeling systems must be efficient to be useful, so they require contributions by software engineers to ensure efficient architectures, accurate numerics, and implementation on fast computers. Further, integrated model systems can be difficult to learn and use unless adequate documentation, training, and support are provided.

  6. Case study of medical evacuation before and after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in the great east Japan earthquake. (United States)

    Okumura, Tetsu; Tokuno, Shinichi


    In Japan, participants in the disaster-specific medical transportation system have received ongoing training since 2002, incorporating lessons learned from the Great Hanshin Earthquake. The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011, and the very first disaster-specific medical transport was performed. This article reviews in detail the central government's control and coordination of the disaster medical transportation process following the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident. In total, 124 patients were air transported under the coordination of the C5 team in the emergency response headquarter of the Japanese Government. C5 includes experts from the Cabinet Office, Cabinet Secretariat, Fire Defense Agency, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and Ministry of Defense. In the 20-30 km evacuation zone around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 509 bedridden patients were successfully evacuated without any fatalities during transportation. Many lessons have been learned in disaster-specific medical transportation. The national government, local government, police, and fire agencies have made significant progress in their mutual communication and collaboration. Fortunately, hospital evacuation from the 20-30 km area was successfully performed with the aid of local emergency physicians and Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMATs) who have vast experience in patient transport in the course of day-to-day activities. The emergency procedures that are required during crises are an extension of basic daily procedures that are performed by emergency medical staff and first responders, such as fire fighters, emergency medical technicians, or police officers. Medical facilities including nursing homes should have a plan for long-distance (over 100 km) evacuation, and the plan should be routinely reevaluated with full-scale exercises. In addition, hospital evacuation in disaster settings should be

  7. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew. (United States)

    Martín, Yago; Li, Zhenlong; Cutter, Susan L


    Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  8. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew (United States)

    Martín, Yago; Cutter, Susan L.


    Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods—pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)—indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders. PMID:28753667

  9. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yago Martín

    Full Text Available Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  10. New model systems for experimental evolution. (United States)

    Collins, Sinéad


    Microbial experimental evolution uses a few well-characterized model systems to answer fundamental questions about how evolution works. This special section highlights novel model systems for experimental evolution, with a focus on marine model systems that can be used to understand evolutionary responses to global change in the oceans. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Hydrological modeling in forested systems (United States)

    H.E. Golden; G.R. Evenson; S. Tian; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun


    Characterizing and quantifying interactions among components of the forest hydrological cycle is complex and usually requires a combination of field monitoring and modelling approaches (Weiler and McDonnell, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). Models are important tools for testing hypotheses, understanding hydrological processes and synthesizing experimental data...

  12. Analysis of the causes of medical evacuation of injured and sick soldiers of the Polish Military Contingent in the Islamic State of Afghanistan taking part in International Security Assistance Force operations. (United States)

    Ziemba, Radosław


    Military casualties in Afghanistan arise in part from climatic and natural conditions that are difficult for European soldiers to endure, as well as from intense guerrilla combat with mass use of IEDs (improvised explosive devices), thus posing numerous and diverse medical problems requiring evacuation to the home country. A search of the literature revealed no comprehensive studies of the causes of medical evacuation from this theater of operations. This article is a review of medical reports of the Polish Military Contingent taking part in Operation Enduring Freedom during the period from 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2011, including an analysis of causes of all ROLE 4 medical evacuations (to the military base in Germany or to the home country). As many as 565 (5.49%) of the total of 10 294 contingent soldiers were evacuated during the analyzed period. Of these, 29% of evacuation cases were due to combat injuries, 23% to complications of respiratory tract infection, 11% to mental health problems, 11% to chronic neuralgias, 12% to complications of acute gastrointestinal infections, 4% to non-combat injuries, 3% to dental and maxillofacial problems, 2% to dermatological problems and 2% to leishmaniasis. The remaining causes included chronic organic/systemic diseases manifested during service. The main causes of medical evacuations to the home country were the consequences of combat injuries, mainly due to IED attacks. Appropriate diagnosis and early treatment of infections is also an important problem in the face of a significant number of complications resulting in evacuation of soldiers to their home country.

  13. Two sustainable energy system analysis models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Goran Krajacic, Neven Duic; da Graca Carvalho, Maria


    This paper presents a comparative study of two energy system analysis models both designed with the purpose of analysing electricity systems with a substantial share of fluctuating renewable energy....


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misdiyanto Misdiyanto


    Full Text Available Villages inside the hazard zone of Slamet Volcano should have an evacuation map, as an anticipation and guidance to guide people evacuate when volcanic activity on the area arise to dangerous level. The experience which occurred at 2009 and 2010 indicate the necessity of the development of evacuation map for 7 villages inside the hazard zone in the Pemalang residential district, such as village of Gunung Sari. The main purpose of the developing an evacuation map is to make the village of Gunung sari becoming more vigilant to anticipate the danger of Slamet Mount eruption. Qualitative methods were used in this study, by handing out preliminary questionnaire to investigate the characteristic of the residents. The development of evacuation map also relies on the participation of the residents, then the resulted map were evaluated by assessing how far people can understand and comprehend any information provided on the map. The result of the investigation shows that Gunungsari’s resident wants an evacuation map, shown by high enthusiasm on the questions of the necessity of an evacuation map and disaster preparedness team that is equal to 97% of the residents on Dusun Sipendil, 83% on dusun Sibedil, 67% on Dusun Silegok, and 63% on Dusun Krajan. The residents also understand and comprehend the information provided on the map nicely, especially about the timing and rendezvous location for the evacuation. It is indicated by high proportion of residents that answer the questions asked accurately, which is 100% on Dusun Sipendil, 97% on Dusun Sibedil, and 80% for both Dusun Silegok and Dusun Krajan. Keywords: disaster prone area, evacuation map, society characteristic

  15. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...

  16. Computational Models for Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems Project (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Clear Science Corp. and Duke University propose to develop and demonstrate new and efficient computational methods of modeling nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The...

  17. Modelling and Verification of Relay Interlocking Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Bliguet, Marie Le; Kjær, Andreas


    This paper describes how relay interlocking systems as used by the Danish railways can be formally modelled and verified. Such systems are documented by circuit diagrams describing their static layout. It is explained how to derive a state transition system model for the dynamic behaviour of a re...... of a relay system from such diagrams. Safety properties are identified and formalised as LTL formulae. Model checking is finally used to verify that a model satisfies the safety properties. The method is tested for an existing station in Denmark....

  18. Error Propagation in a System Model (United States)

    Schloegel, Kirk (Inventor); Bhatt, Devesh (Inventor); Oglesby, David V. (Inventor); Madl, Gabor (Inventor)


    Embodiments of the present subject matter can enable the analysis of signal value errors for system models. In an example, signal value errors can be propagated through the functional blocks of a system model to analyze possible effects as the signal value errors impact incident functional blocks. This propagation of the errors can be applicable to many models of computation including avionics models, synchronous data flow, and Kahn process networks.

  19. Semantic models for adaptive interactive systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hussein, Tim; Lukosch, Stephan; Ziegler, Jürgen; Calvary, Gaëlle


    Providing insights into methodologies for designing adaptive systems based on semantic data, and introducing semantic models that can be used for building interactive systems, this book showcases many of the applications made possible by the use of semantic models.Ontologies may enhance the functional coverage of an interactive system as well as its visualization and interaction capabilities in various ways. Semantic models can also contribute to bridging gaps; for example, between user models, context-aware interfaces, and model-driven UI generation. There is considerable potential for using

  20. Modeling European ruminant production systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kipling, Richard P.; Bannink, André; Bellocchi, Gianni; Dalgaard, Tommy; Fox, Naomi J.; Hutchings, Nicholas J.; Kjeldsen, Chris; Lacetera, Nicola; Sinabell, Franz; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Oijen, van Marcel; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Scollan, Nigel D.


    Ruminant production systems are important producers of food, support rural communities and culture, and help to maintain a range of ecosystem services including the sequestering of carbon in grassland soils. However, these systems also contribute significantly to climate change through greenhouse