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Sample records for evacuation dynamics empirical

  1. Evacuation dynamics of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to deliver new data and to bring attention to the subject of evacuation of children. Evacuation characteristics such as flow, densities and walking speeds are in focus. Currently literature on evacuation com-prehends mostly studies on adults. Ten Danish daycare centers...... participated in full scale evacuation experiments where the age groups 0-2 years and 3-6 years were analyzed separately. The work had the following overall finding. Flows through doors, walking speeds and densities are age-dependent and differ strongly from the data in existing literature. The results show...

  2. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2005

    CERN Document Server

    Gattermann, Peter; Knoflacher, Hermann; Schreckenberg, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Due to an increasing number of reported catastrophes all over the world, the safety especially of pedestrians today, is a dramatically growing field of interest, both for practitioners as well as scientists from various disciplines. The questions arising mainly address the dynamics of evacuating people and possible optimisations of the process by changing the architecture and /or the procedure. This concerns not only the case of ships, stadiums or buildings, all with restricted geometries, but also the evacuation of complete geographical regions due to natural disasters. Furthermore, also ‘simple’ crowd motion in ‘relaxed’ situations poses new questions with respect to higher comfort and efficiency since the number of involved persons at large events is as high as never before. In addition, as a new research topic in this field, collective animal behaviour is attracting increasing attention. All this was in the scope of the conference held in Vienna, September 28–30, 2005, the third one in a series ...

  3. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012

    CERN Document Server

    Kirsch, Uwe; Schreckenberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The 6th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics conference (PED2012) showcased research on human locomotion. This book presents the proceedings of PED2012. Humans have walked for eons; our drive to settle the globe began with a walk out of Africa. However, much remains to discover. As the world moves toward sustainability while racing to assess and accommodate climate change, research must provide insight on the physical requirements of walking, the dynamics of pedestrians on the move and more. We must understand, predict and simulate pedestrian behaviour, to avoid dangerous situations, to plan for emergencies, and not least, to make walking more attractive and enjoyable. PED2012 offered 70 presentations and keynotes and 70 poster presentations covering new and improved mathematical models, describing new insights on pedestrian behaviour in normal and emergency cases and presenting research based on sensors and advanced observation methods. These papers offer a starting point for innova...

  4. Pedestrian Dynamics Feedback Control of Crowd Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Kachroo, Pushkin P.E; Al-nasur, Sadeq J; Shende, Apoorva

    2008-01-01

    Effective evacuation of people from closed spaces is an extremely important topic, since it can save real lives in emergency situations that can be brought about by natural and human made disasters. Usually there are static maps posted at various places at buildings that illustrate routes that should be taken during emergencies. However, when disasters happen, some of these routes might not be valid because of structural problems due to the disaster itself and more importantly because of the distribution of congestion of people spread over the area. The average flow of traffic depends on the traffic density. Therefore, if all the people follow the same route, or follow a route without knowing the congestion situation, they can end up being part of the congestion which results in very low flow rate or worse a traffic jam. Hence it becomes extremely important to design evacuations that inform people how fast and in which direction to move based on real-time information obtained about the people distribution usi...

  5. Effects of a Sprinkler on Evacuation Dynamics in Fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Yamamoto

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A fire in an enclosed space, such as a room in a building, is generally called a compartment fire. To prevent the compartment fire, a sprinkler for first-aid fire-fighting is installed in rooms. However, it is difficult to determine the degree to which smoke generation and the fire spreading will be inhibited when sprinklers are on. In particular, demonstrating evacuation behavior assuming an actual fire is impossible. In this study, we evaluated an effectiveness of the sprinkler by numerical simulations. To consider evacuation dynamics, a real-coded cellular automata (RCA was used, where we can freely set the direction and velocity of an evacuee based on a floor field model. To consider the situation in the room fire, we used a simulator called Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. Two cases with and without the sprinkler were compared to see the validity of the sprinkler on evacuation dynamics. The effect of smoke and the expansion of the fire-spreading region were discussed. Results show that, since the fire-spreading region disappears when the sprinkler is actuated, the evacuation time decreases. Even though the sprinkler is actuated, the smoke generated at the beginning of a fire diffuses inside the whole room. However, the duration of evacuees being overwhelmed by smoke is less, because the amount of smoke generated by the pyrolysis reaction is much decreased.

  6. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  7. A Dynamic Optimization Method of Indoor Fire Evacuation Route Based on Real-time Situation Awareness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DING Yulin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available How to provide safe and effective evacuation routes is an important safeguard to correctly guide evacuation and reduce the casualties during the fire situation rapidly evolving in complex indoor environment. The traditional static path finding method is difficult to adjust the path adaptively according to the changing fire situation, which lead to the evacuation decision-making blindness and hysteresis. This paper proposes a dynamic method which can dynamically optimize the indoor evacuation routes based on the real-time situation awareness. According to the real-time perception of fire situation parameters and the changing indoor environment information, the evacuation route is optimized dynamically. The integrated representation of multisource indoor fire monitoring sensor observations oriented fire emergency evacuation is presented at first, real-time fire threat situation information inside building is then extracted from the observation data of multi-source sensors, which is used to constrain the dynamical optimization of the topology of the evacuation route. Finally, the simulation experiments prove that this method can improve the accuracy and efficiency of indoor evacuation routing.

  8. High pressures in room evacuation processes and a first approach to the dynamics around unconscious pedestrians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornes, F. E.; Frank, G. A.; Dorso, C. O.

    2017-10-01

    Clogging raises as the principal phenomenon during many evacuation processes of pedestrians in an emergency situation. As people push to escape from danger, compression forces may increase to harming levels. Many individuals might fall down, while others will try to dodge the fallen people, or, simply pass through them. We studied the dynamics of the crowd for these situations, in the context of the "social force model". We modeled the unconscious (fallen) pedestrians as inanimate bodies that can be dodged (or not) by the surrounding individuals. We found that new morphological structures appear along the evacuating crowd. Under specific conditions, these structures may enhance the evacuation performance. The pedestrian's willings for either dodging or passing through the unconscious individuals play a relevant role in the overall evacuation performance.

  9. Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Joshua M.; Pankajakshan, Ramesh; Hammond, Ross A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool. PMID:21687788

  10. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  11. Evacuation exercise

    CERN Multimedia

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2094367

    2017-01-01

    In the event of an emergency, it is important that staff and visitors are evacuated safely and efficiently. Hence CERN organises regularly emergency response and evacuation exercise (also known as an ‘evacuation drill’) in different buildings across the sites.

  12. Rapid post-seismic landslide evacuation boosted by dynamic river width

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Steer, Philippe; Davy, Philippe

    2017-09-01

    Mass wasting caused by large-magnitude earthquakes chokes mountain rivers with several cubic kilometres of sediment. The timescale and mechanisms by which rivers evacuate small to gigantic landslide deposits are poorly known, but are critical for predicting post-seismic geomorphic hazards, interpreting the signature of earthquakes in sedimentary archives and deciphering the coupling between erosion and tectonics. Here, we use a new 2D hydro-sedimentary evolution model to demonstrate that river self-organization into a narrower alluvial channel overlying the bedrock valley dramatically increases sediment transport capacity and reduces export time of gigantic landslides by orders of magnitude compared with existing theory. Predicted export times obey a universal non-linear relationship of landslide volume and pre-landslide valley transport capacity. Upscaling these results to realistic populations of landslides shows that removing half of the total coarse sediment volume introduced by large earthquakes in the fluvial network would typically take 5 to 25 years in various tectonically active mountain belts, with little impact of earthquake magnitude and climate. Dynamic alluvial channel narrowing is therefore a key, previously unrecognized mechanism by which mountain rivers rapidly digest extreme events and maintain their capacity to incise uplifted rocks.

  13. Empirical and dynamic primary energy factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilby, Mark Richard; Rodríguez González, Ana Belén; Vinagre Díaz, Juan José

    2014-01-01

    Current legislation, standards, and scientific research in the field of energy efficiency often make use of PEFs (primary energy factors). The measures employed are usually fixed and based on theoretical calculations. However given the intrinsically variable nature of energy systems, these PEFs should rely on empirical data and evolve in time. Otherwise the obtained efficiencies may not be representative of the actual energy system. In addition, incorrect PEFs may cause a negative effect on the energy efficiency measures. For instance, imposing a high value on the PEF of electricity may discourage the use of renewable energy sources, which have an actual value close to 1. In order to provide a solution to this issue, we propose an application of the Energy Networks (ENs), described in a previous work, to calculate dynamic PEFs based on empirical data. An EN represents an entire energy system both numerically and graphically, from its primary energy sources to their final energy forms, and consuming sectors. Using ENs we can calculate the PEF of any energy form and depict it in a simple and meaningful graph that shows the details of the contribution of each primary energy and the efficiency of the associated process. The analysis of these PEFs leads to significant conclusions regarding the energy models adopted among countries, their evolution in time, the selection of viable ways to improve efficiency, and the detection of best practices that could contribute to the overall energy efficiency targets. - Highlights: • Primary Energy Factors (PEFs) are foundation of much energy legislation and research. • Traditionally, they have been treated as geotemporally invariant. • This work provides a systematic and transparent methodology for adding variability. • It also shows the variability between regions due to market, policy, and technology. • Finally it demonstrates the utility of extended PEFs as a tool in their own right

  14. Simulation of Evacuation Characteristics Using a 2-Dimensional Cellular Automata Model for Pedestrian Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liqiang Ji

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In public places, the high pedestrian density is one of the direct causes leading to crowding and trample disaster, so it is very necessary to investigate the collective and evacuation characteristics for pedestrian movement. In the occupants’ evacuation process, the people-people interaction and the people-environment interaction are sufficiently considered in this paper, which have been divided into the exit attraction, the repulsion force between people, the friction between people, the repulsion force between human and barrier, and the attraction of surrounding people. Through analyzing the existing models, a new occupant evacuation cellular automata (CA model based on the social force model is presented, which overcomes the shortage of the high density crowd simulation and combines the advantages that CA has sample rules and faster calculating speed. The simulating result shows a great applicability for evacuation under the high density crowd condition, and the segregation phenomena have also been found in the bidirectional pedestrian flow. Besides these, setting isolated belt near the exit or entrance of underpass not only remarkably decreases the density and the risk of tramper disaster but also increases the evacuation efficiency, so it provides a new idea for infrastructure design about the exits and entrances.

  15. Dynamic imaging of posterior compartment pelvic floor dysfunction by evacuation proctography: Techniques, indications, results and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maglinte, Dean D.T.; Bartram, Clive

    2007-01-01

    The clinical management of patients with anorectal and pelvic floor dysfunction is often difficult. Evacuation proctography has evolved from a method to evaluate the anorectum for functional disorders to its current status as a practical method for evaluating anorectal dysfunction and pelvic floor prolapse. It has a high observer accuracy and yield of positive diagnosis. Clinicians find it of major benefit and has altered management from surgical to medical and vice versa in a significant number of cases

  16. Dynamic imaging of posterior compartment pelvic floor dysfunction by evacuation proctography: Techniques, indications, results and limitations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maglinte, Dean D.T. [Department of Radiology, Indiana University Medical Center, University Hospital and Outpatient Center, 550 N. University Blvd. UH 0279, Indianapolis, IN 46202 (United States)]. E-mail: dmaglint@iupui.edu; Bartram, Clive [Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, Consulting Radiology, St. Mark' s Hospital, Northwick Park, Harrow HA1 3UJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-03-15

    The clinical management of patients with anorectal and pelvic floor dysfunction is often difficult. Evacuation proctography has evolved from a method to evaluate the anorectum for functional disorders to its current status as a practical method for evaluating anorectal dysfunction and pelvic floor prolapse. It has a high observer accuracy and yield of positive diagnosis. Clinicians find it of major benefit and has altered management from surgical to medical and vice versa in a significant number of cases.

  17. Dynamic changes during evacuation of a left temporal abscess in open MRI: technical case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernays, R.L.; Yonekawa, Y. [Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital, Zurich (Switzerland); Kollias, S.S. [Institute of Neuroradiology, University Hospital of Zurich (Switzerland)

    2002-05-01

    We demonstrate the usefulness of ''near real-time'' neuro-navigation by open MRI systems for guidance of stereotactic evacuation of intracranial abscesses. A 70-year-old patient was referred to our institution with an intracranial left temporal abscess. He presented with headache, senso-motor aphasia and mild right hemiparesis. The abscess (35 x 25 mm) was stereotactically evacuated under MRI guidance, and a recurrence of a daughter abscess was again evacuated on the 9th postoperative day. ''Near real-time'' imaging showed an indentation of the abscess wall of 11 mm along the trajectory. A thermosensitive MRI protocol demonstrated a higher temperature around the abscess capsule than in the brain tissue more distant to the capsule, demonstrating the inflammatory process. The patient had 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy for gram-negative bacteria and was discharged with improved clinical symptoms 5 weeks after admission. Follow-up CT 2 months postoperatively showed a complete resolution of the abscess. Open MRI-guided interventions with ''near real-time'' imaging demonstrate the anatomical changes during an ongoing procedure and can be accommodated for enhancing the overall precision of stereotactic procedures. Thermosensitive MRI protocols are capable of revealing temperature gradients around inflammatory processes. (orig.)

  18. Dynamic changes during evacuation of a left temporal abscess in open MRI: technical case report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernays, R.L.; Yonekawa, Y.; Kollias, S.S.

    2002-01-01

    We demonstrate the usefulness of ''near real-time'' neuro-navigation by open MRI systems for guidance of stereotactic evacuation of intracranial abscesses. A 70-year-old patient was referred to our institution with an intracranial left temporal abscess. He presented with headache, senso-motor aphasia and mild right hemiparesis. The abscess (35 x 25 mm) was stereotactically evacuated under MRI guidance, and a recurrence of a daughter abscess was again evacuated on the 9th postoperative day. ''Near real-time'' imaging showed an indentation of the abscess wall of 11 mm along the trajectory. A thermosensitive MRI protocol demonstrated a higher temperature around the abscess capsule than in the brain tissue more distant to the capsule, demonstrating the inflammatory process. The patient had 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy for gram-negative bacteria and was discharged with improved clinical symptoms 5 weeks after admission. Follow-up CT 2 months postoperatively showed a complete resolution of the abscess. Open MRI-guided interventions with ''near real-time'' imaging demonstrate the anatomical changes during an ongoing procedure and can be accommodated for enhancing the overall precision of stereotactic procedures. Thermosensitive MRI protocols are capable of revealing temperature gradients around inflammatory processes. (orig.)

  19. Contract Dynamics : Lessons from Empirical Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Magali Chaudey

    2010-01-01

    Working paper GATE 2010-35; The recognition that contracts have a time dimension has given rise to a very abundant literature since the end of the 1980s. In such a dynamic context, the contract may take place over several periods and develop repeated interactions. Then, the principal topics of the analysis are commitment, reputation, memory and the renegotiation of the contract. Few papers have tried to apply the predictions of dynamic contract theory to data. The examples of applications int...

  20. Empirical analysis of online human dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Zhou, Tao

    2012-06-01

    Patterns of human activities have attracted increasing academic interests, since the quantitative understanding of human behavior is helpful to uncover the origins of many socioeconomic phenomena. This paper focuses on behaviors of Internet users. Six large-scale systems are studied in our experiments, including the movie-watching in Netflix and MovieLens, the transaction in Ebay, the bookmark-collecting in Delicious, and the posting in FreindFeed and Twitter. Empirical analysis reveals some common statistical features of online human behavior: (1) The total number of user's actions, the user's activity, and the interevent time all follow heavy-tailed distributions. (2) There exists a strongly positive correlation between user's activity and the total number of user's actions, and a significantly negative correlation between the user's activity and the width of the interevent time distribution. We further study the rescaling method and show that this method could to some extent eliminate the different statistics among users caused by the different activities, yet the effectiveness depends on the data sets.

  1. Societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaughey, Jamie W.; Mundzir, Ibnu; Patt, Anthony; Rosemary, Rizanna; Safrina, Lely; Mahdi, Saiful; Daly, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainties in forecasting extreme events force an unavoidable tradeoff between false alarms and misses. The appropriate balance depends on the level of societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuations, but there has been little empirical research on this. Intuitively it may seem that an unnecessary evacuation would make people less likely to evacuate again in the future, but our study finds no support for this intuition. Using new quantitative (n=800) and qualitative evidence, we examine individual- and household-level evacuation decisions in response to the strong 11-Apr-2012 earthquake in Aceh, Indonesia. This earthquake did not produce a tsunami, but the population had previously experienced the devastating 2004 tsunami. In our sample, the vast majority of people (86%) evacuated in the 2012 earthquake, and nearly all (94%) say they would evacuate again if a similar earthquake happened in the future. Self-reported level of fear at the moment of the 2012 earthquake explains more of the variance in evacuation decisions and intentions than does a combination of perceived tsunami risk and perceived efficacy of evacuation modeled on protection motivation theory. These findings suggest that the appropriate balance between false alarms and misses may be highly context-specific. Investigating this in each context would make an important contribution to the effectiveness of early-warning systems.

  2. Empirical results on scheduling and dynamic backtracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddy, Mark S.; Goldman, Robert P.

    1994-01-01

    At the Honeywell Technology Center (HTC), we have been working on a scheduling problem related to commercial avionics. This application is large, complex, and hard to solve. To be a little more concrete: 'large' means almost 20,000 activities, 'complex' means several activity types, periodic behavior, and assorted types of temporal constraints, and 'hard to solve' means that we have been unable to eliminate backtracking through the use of search heuristics. At this point, we can generate solutions, where solutions exist, or report failure and sometimes why the system failed. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the largest and most complex scheduling problems to have been solved as a constraint satisfaction problem, at least that has appeared in the published literature. This abstract is a preliminary report on what we have done and how. In the next section, we present our approach to treating scheduling as a constraint satisfaction problem. The following sections present the application in more detail and describe how we solve scheduling problems in the application domain. The implemented system makes use of Ginsberg's Dynamic Backtracking algorithm, with some minor extensions to improve its utility for scheduling. We describe those extensions and the performance of the resulting system. The paper concludes with some general remarks, open questions and plans for future work.

  3. Ownership dynamics with large shareholders : An empirical analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donelli, M.; Urzua Infante, F.; Larrain, B.

    2013-01-01

    We study the empirical determinants of corporate ownership dynamics in a market where large shareholders are prevalent. We use a unique, hand-collected 20-year dataset on the ownership structure of Chilean companies. Controllers’ blockholdings are on average high -as in continental Europe, for

  4. Dynamic real-time routing for evacuation response planning and execution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    This study addresses the problem of dynamic routing operations in the emergency response context, primarily in terms : of the routing of response vehicles and evacuees. The study focuses on identifying the paths used for routing response : vehicles a...

  5. Dynamic cross-sales effects of price promotions: Empirical generalizations

    OpenAIRE

    B. VINDEVOGEL; D. VAN DEN POEL; G. WETS

    2004-01-01

    In this research we use the framework of market-basket analysis and techniques from modern multivariate time-series analysis to measure and explain the dynamic impact of a price promotion on the sales of a complementary product. The large scale of this research enables us to derive empirical generalizations. We contribute to the literature in drawing the following conclusions: Firstly, we illustrate that using an intense promotion strategy, characterized by deeper and more frequent price prom...

  6. Empirical modeling of dynamic behaviors of pneumatic artificial muscle actuators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramatunge, Kanchana Crishan; Leephakpreeda, Thananchai

    2013-11-01

    Pneumatic Artificial Muscle (PAM) actuators yield muscle-like mechanical actuation with high force to weight ratio, soft and flexible structure, and adaptable compliance for rehabilitation and prosthetic appliances to the disabled as well as humanoid robots or machines. The present study is to develop empirical models of the PAM actuators, that is, a PAM coupled with pneumatic control valves, in order to describe their dynamic behaviors for practical control design and usage. Empirical modeling is an efficient approach to computer-based modeling with observations of real behaviors. Different characteristics of dynamic behaviors of each PAM actuator are due not only to the structures of the PAM actuators themselves, but also to the variations of their material properties in manufacturing processes. To overcome the difficulties, the proposed empirical models are experimentally derived from real physical behaviors of the PAM actuators, which are being implemented. In case studies, the simulated results with good agreement to experimental results, show that the proposed methodology can be applied to describe the dynamic behaviors of the real PAM actuators. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

    2018-05-01

    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Study of seasonal dynamics of sedimentation evacuation of suspended matter, nutrients and pollutants from the surface water layer of the Black Sea during 1992-1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulin, S.B.; Polikarpov, G.G.; Egorov, V.N.; Krivenko, O.V.; Stokozov, N.A.; Zherko, N.V.

    1995-01-01

    A series of regular measurements of sedimentation evacuation of suspended matter, nutrients (carbon, nitrogen) and pollutants (mercury, polychlorided biphenyls) from the surface water layer was carried out with 1-2 month interval between the measurements using 234 Th in the region of western cyclonic circulation of the Black Sea. It allowed to estimate the seasonal dynamics and to obtain average annual values of dientrophication and sedimentational self-purification of the euphotic zone of the Western part of the Black Sea. The parallel measurements of the rates of sedimentation evacuation of suspended organic nitrogen from the euphotic zone, which were performed using 234 Th and determining the so called products of phitoplankton by the absorption of 15 N traced nitrates and ammonium, give practically identical results. 19 refs.; 5 figs

  9. Social dynamics in emergency evacuations: Disentangling crowd's attraction and repulsion effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghani, Milad; Sarvi, Majid

    2017-06-01

    The social dynamics of crowds in emergency escape scenarios have been conventionally modelled as the net effect of virtual forces exerted by the crowd on each individual (as self-driven particles), with the magnitude of the influence formulated as decreasing functions of inter-individual distances and the direction of effect assumed to be transitioning from repulsion to attraction by distance. Here, we revisit this conventional assumption using laboratory experimental data. We show based on robust econometric hypothesis-testing methods that individuals' perception of other escapees differs based on whether those individuals are jamming around exit destinations or are on the move towards the destinations. Also, for moving crowds, it differs based on whether the escape destination chosen by the moving flow is visible or invisible to the individual. The presence of crowd jams around a destination, also the movement of crowd flows towards visible destinations are both perceived on average as repulsion (or disutility) effects (with the former showing significantly larger magnitude than the latter). The movement of crowd flows towards an invisible destination, however, is on average perceived as attraction (or utility) effect. Yet, further hypothesis testing showed that neither of those effects in isolation determines adequately whether an individual would merge with or diverge from the crowd. Rather, the social interaction factors act (at significant levels) in conjunction with the physical factors of the environments (including spatial distances to exit destinations and destinations' visibility). In brief, our finding disentangles the conditions under which individuals are more likely to show mass behaviour from the situations where they are more likely to break from the herd. It identifies two factors that moderate the perception of social interactions, ;crowds' jam/movement status; and ;environmental setup;. Our results particularly challenge the taxonomy of

  10. Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhelavskaya, Irina S.; Shprits, Yuri Y.; Spasojević, Maria

    2017-11-01

    We present the PINE (Plasma density in the Inner magnetosphere Neural network-based Empirical) model - a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of 1 October 2012 to 1 July 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2≤L≤6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent data sets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model-predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). The optimal model is based on the 96 h time history of Kp, AE, SYM-H, and F10.7 indices. The model successfully reproduces erosion of the plasmasphere on the nightside and plume formation and evolution. We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

  11. Rapid post-seismic landslide evacuation boosted by dynamic river width and implications for sediment fluxes during the seismic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steer, Philippe; Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Mass wasting caused by large magnitude earthquakes choke mountain rivers with several cubic kilometers of sediment. The timescale and mechanisms by which rivers evacuate the coarse fraction of small to gigantic landslide deposits are poorly known, but are critical to predict post-seismic hydro-sedimentary hazards, interpret the signature of earthquakes in sedimentary archives and decipher the coupling between erosion and tectonics. Here, we use a new 2D hydro-sedimentary evolution model to demonstrate that river self-organization into a narrower alluvial channel overlying the bedrock valley dramatically increases sediment transport capacity of coarse sediments and reduces export time of gigantic landslides by orders of magnitude compared to existing theory. Predicted export times obey a universal non-linear relationship function of landslide volume and pre-landslide valley transport capacity. Dynamic alluvial channel narrowing is therefore a key, previously unrecognized, mechanism by which mountain rivers rapidly digest extreme events and maintain their capacity to incise uplifted rocks. Upscaling these results to realistic populations of landslides show that removing half of the total sediment volume introduced by large earthquakes in the fluvial network would typically last 5 to 25 years in various tectonically active mountain belts, with little impact of topography and climate. If several studies indicate a strong dependency of total landslide volume to earthquake magnitude, our study show that the sediment export time of a landslide population is not strongly impacted by earthquake magnitude or by the total volume of the landslide population. Building on these new findings, we then investigate the dynamics of mountainous landscapes submitted to a series of earthquakes, following either a Gutenberg-Richter distribution or a single large magnitude event. We infer the temporal and spatial evolution of the number of active landslide deposits, of the sediment load

  12. City evacuations an interdisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Binner, Jane; Branicki, Layla; Galla, Tobias; Jones, Nick; King, James; Kolokitha, Magdalini; Smyrnakis, Michalis

    2015-01-01

    Evacuating a city is a complex problem that involves issues of governance, preparedness education, warning, information sharing, population dynamics, resilience and recovery. As natural and anthropogenic threats to cities grow, it is an increasingly pressing problem for policy makers and practitioners.   The book is the result of a unique interdisciplinary collaboration between researchers in the physical and social sciences to consider how an interdisciplinary approach can help plan for large scale evacuations.  It draws on perspectives from physics, mathematics, organisation theory, economics, sociology and education.  Importantly it goes beyond disciplinary boundaries and considers how interdisciplinary methods are necessary to approach a complex problem involving human actors and increasingly complex communications and transportation infrastructures.   Using real world case studies and modelling the book considers new approaches to evacuation dynamics.  It addresses questions of complexity, not only ...

  13. Some aspects on kinetic modeling of evacuation dynamics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Juan; Nieto, Juanjo

    2016-09-01

    The management of human crowds in extreme situations is a complex subject which requires to take into account a variety of factors. To name a few, the understanding of human behaviour, the psychological and behavioural features of individuals, the quality of the venue and the stress level of the pedestrian need to be addressed in order to select the most appropriate action during an evacuation process on a complex venue. In this sense, the mathematical modeling of such complex phenomena can be regarded as a very useful tool to understand and predict these situations. As presented in [4], mathematical models can provide guidance to the personnel in charge of managing evacuation processes, by means of helping to design a set of protocols, among which the most appropriate during a given critical situation is then chosen.

  14. The dynamics of the rise and fall of empires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gündüz, Güngör

    2016-05-01

    The rise of empires can be elucidated by treating them as living organisms, and the celebrated Verhulst or Lotka-Volterra dynamics can be used to understand the growth mechanisms of empires. The fast growth can be expressed by an exponential function as in the case of Macedonian empire of the Alexander the Great whereas a sigmoidal growth can be expressed by power-law equation as in the case of Roman and Ottoman empires. The superpowers Russia and the USA follow somehow different mechanisms, Russia displays two different exponential growth behaviors whereas the USA follows two different power-law behaviors. They did not disturb and mobilize their social capacity much during the course of their rise. The decline and the collapse of an empire occur through a kind of fragmentation process, and the consequently formed small states become rather free in their behavior. The lands of the new states formed exhibit a hierarchical pattern, and the number of the states having an area smaller than the largest one can be given either by an exponential or power-law function. The exponential distribution pattern occurs when the states are quite free in their pursuits, but the power-law behavior occurs when they are under the pressure of an empire or a strong state in the region. The geological and geographical conditions also affect whether there occurs exponential or power-law behavior. The new unions formed such as the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation increase the power-law exponent implying that they increase the stress in the international affairs. The viscoelastic behavior of the empires can be found from the scattering diagrams, and the storage (G‧)and loss modulus (G‧‧), and the associated work-like and heat-like terms can be determined in the sense of thermodynamics. The G‧ of Ottomans was larger than that of Romans implying that they confronted severe resistance during their expansion. The G‧ of Russia is also larger than that of the USA; in fact the

  15. Development of an empirically based dynamic biomechanical strength model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandya, A.; Maida, J.; Aldridge, A.; Hasson, S.; Woolford, B.

    1992-01-01

    The focus here is on the development of a dynamic strength model for humans. Our model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints are characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, position, and velocity in all rotational planes. This information is reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining the torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations are then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, which in this case is a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. What is presented here is a comparison of the computed or predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion.

  16. Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, Marco; Ceglar, Andrej; Prodhomme, Chloé; Soret, Albert; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes Francisco, J.

    2017-08-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts could be an important planning tool for farmers, government and insurance companies that can lead to better and timely management of seasonal climate risks. However, climate seasonal forecasts are often under-used, because potential users are not well aware of the capabilities and limitations of these products. This study aims at assessing the merits and caveats of a statistical empirical method, the ensemble streamflow prediction system (ESP, an ensemble based on reordering historical data) and an operational dynamical forecast system, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—System 4 (S4) in predicting summer drought in Europe. Droughts are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the month of August integrated over 6 months. Both systems show useful and mostly comparable deterministic skill. We argue that this source of predictability is mostly attributable to the observed initial conditions. S4 shows only higher skill in terms of ability to probabilistically identify drought occurrence. Thus, currently, both approaches provide useful information and ESP represents a computationally fast alternative to dynamical prediction applications for drought prediction.

  17. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  18. Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, Gregory D.; Bier, Vicki M.

    2015-01-01

    In the U.S., current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced, allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping using geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the size of the population evacuated. - Highlights: • Developed framework to compare nuclear power accident evacuation strategies. • Evacuation strategies were compared on basis of radiological and evacuation risk. • Current strategies are adequate for smaller scale nuclear power accidents. • New strategies reduced radiation exposure and evacuation size for larger accidents

  19. Evacuated aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Jørgen Munthe; Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space...... between the glass panes is filled with monolithic silica aerogel evacuated to a rough vacuum of approximately 1-10 hPa. The aerogel glazing does not depend on use of low emissive coatings that have the drawback of absorbing a relatively large part of the solar radiation that otherwise could reduce...

  20. Auditory evacuation beacons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, S.J. van; Bronkhorst, A.W.; Boer, L.C.

    2005-01-01

    Auditory evacuation beacons can be used to guide people to safe exits, even when vision is totally obscured by smoke. Conventional beacons make use of modulated noise signals. Controlled evacuation experiments show that such signals require explicit instructions and are often misunderstood. A new

  1. Optimal crowd evacuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Daamen, W.; Duives, D.C.; Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the optimal allocation of routes, destination, and departure times to members of a crowd, for instance in case of an evacuation or another hazardous situation in which the people need to leave the area as quickly as possible. The generic approach minimizes the evacuation times,

  2. Evacuation of Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run

    Saving human lives is the highest priority in case of fire, according to fire codes around the world. Codes state that everyone should be able to escape to safety in case of fire. In order to design buildings that enable this the available safe egress time (ASET) must be held up against...... is to provide new data and information on children’s evacuation, which is a step towards including children in evacuation models and calculations. Little is known about children’s evacuation characteristics in fire compared to other parts of the population. In recent years there has been more focus on children......, indicating that an alarm with audio signal is preferable to a light signal only or no alarm at all. Children’s evacuation cannot be described using adults’ evacuation models throughout. Young children are slower than adults and travel speed increases with age. At the age of 12 years children can be described...

  3. An empirical analysis of dynamic multiscale hedging using wavelet decomposition

    OpenAIRE

    Conlon, Thomas; Cotter, John

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio for various hedging horizons for a number of assets. The effectiveness of the dynamic multiscale hedging strategy is then tested, both in- and out-of-sample, using standard variance reduction and expanded to include a downside risk metric, the time horizon ...

  4. Are all online hotel prices created dynamic? An empirical assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Melis, Giuseppe; Piga, Claudio A

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how tourist firms set their online prices is important due to their growing reliance on Online Travel Agencies (OTA). Little is known, however, about whether differences exist in the online pricing approaches adopted by hotels using an OTA. The article tests, using a big data approach, whether the diffuse narrative of a pervasive presence of dynamic pricing provides a realistic description of hotels’ pricing behavior and thus challenges the view that dynamic pricing should be co...

  5. Simulated Evacuations Into Water

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McLean, Garnet

    2004-01-01

    .... Actual emergency data to support ditching certification are not available; there have been questions as to whether evacuation flow rates onto land are appropriate for use in ditching-related flotation time computations...

  6. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DYNAMICS OF CREDIT GROWTH AND FOREIGN RESERVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satrugan Sinah

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a model for looking into the nature of change in foreign reserve from movements in domestic credit. This model is relevant to foreign reserve targeting, small and open economies. The model denotes that measures undertaken by central banks to constraint domestic credit growth with the view of controlling capital outflows will also be detrimental to foreign reserves level. The empirical studies with application of Fourier Transformation technique have been used to build a model, which shows that growth in domestic credit is more biased towards positive swings in foreign reserves, rather than being unfavorable. The small and open economies, particularly, the Pacific Island nations, have the right set up for application of this model to safeguard foreign reserves level.

  7. Integrating supply and demand aspects of transportation for mass evacuation under disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This study seeks to address real-time operational needs in the context of the evacuation response problem by providing a capability to dynamically route vehicles under evacuation, thereby being responsive to the actual conditions unfolding in real-ti...

  8. Investigation of Thermal Performance of Flat Plate and Evacuated Tubular Solar Collectors According to a New Dynamic Test Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kong, Weiqiang; Wang, Zhifeng; Fan, Jianhua

    2012-01-01

    obtain fluid thermal capacitance in data processing. Then theoretical analysis and experimental verification are carried out to investigate influencing factors of obtaining accurate and stable second order term. A flat plate and ETC solar collector are compared using both the new dynamic method......A new dynamic test method is introduced. This so called improved transfer function method features on two new collector parameters. One is time term which can indicate solar collector's inner heat transfer ability and the other is a second order term of collector mean fluid temperature which can...... and a standard method. The results show that the improved function method can accurately and robustly estimate these two kinds of solar collectors....

  9. Family dynamics and housing: Conceptual issues and empirical findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Mulder

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND In this reflection I discuss my conceptual ideas and the latest empirical findings regarding the connections between leaving the parental home, marriage, parenthood, and separation on the one hand, and housing on the other. I also discuss the limitations of the research and directions for future research. CONCLUSIONS Parental housing of good quality keeps specific categories of potential nest-leavers in the parental home, but is also positively associated with the likelihood of young adults starting their housing careers as homeowners. The connections between housing and marriage and between housing and parenthood can be characterized using the concepts of housing space, quality, and safety or security - all three of which married couples and families need more than singles - and flexibility, which couples and families need less. These four needs are strongly subject to social norms. There is a strong tendency for married couples and prospective families to move into home ownership and higher quality homes. Separation tends to lead ex-partners with lower moving costs and fewer resources to move from the joint home, and tends to lead to a longer lasting decrease in housing quality, particularly for women. Future research could focus on the impact of housing on the transformation of dating partnerships into co-residential partnerships, the impact of housing quality and home ownership on the quality of partner relationships, partnership and housing histories rather than single events and short-term effects, unraveling the causal connections between family and housing, and incorporating the impact of the socio-spatial context in the research.

  10. A crowd of pedestrian dynamics - The perspective of physics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, António F.

    2016-09-01

    Walking is the most basic form of transportation. A good understanding of pedestrian's dynamics is essential in meeting the mobility and accessibility needs of people by providing a safe and quick walking flow [1]. Advances in the dynamics of pedestrians in crowds are of great theoretical and practical interest, as they lead to new insights regarding the planning of pedestrian facilities, crowd management, or evacuation analysis. Nicola Bellomo's et al. article [2] is a very timely review of the related research on modelling approaches, computational simulations, decision-making and crisis response. It also includes an attempt to accurately define commonly used terms, as well as a critical analysis of crowd dynamics and safety problems. As noted by the authors, ;models and simulations offer a virtual representation of real dynamics; that are essential to understand and predict the ;behavioural dynamics of crowds; [2]. As a physicist, I would like to put forward some additional theoretical and practical contributions that could be interesting to explore, regarding the perspective of physics on about human crowd dynamics (panic as a specific form of behaviour excluded).

  11. Interpreting the empirical evidence on illegal gun market dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Anthony A; Wintemute, Garen J; Pierce, Glenn L; Cook, Philip J; Ridgeway, Greg

    2012-10-01

    Thousands of Americans are killed by gunfire each year, and hundreds of thousands more are injured or threatened with guns in robberies and assaults. The burden of gun violence in urban areas is particularly high. Critics suggest that the results of firearm trace data and gun trafficking investigation studies cannot be used to understand the illegal supply of guns to criminals and, therefore, that regulatory and enforcement efforts designed to disrupt illegal firearms markets are futile in addressing criminal access to firearms. In this paper, we present new data to address three key arguments used by skeptics to undermine research on illegal gun market dynamics. We find that criminals rely upon a diverse set of illegal diversion pathways to acquire guns, gun traffickers usually divert small numbers of guns, newer guns are diverted through close-to-retail diversions from legal firearms commerce, and that a diverse set of gun trafficking indicators are needed to identify and shut down gun trafficking pathways.

  12. Evacuating populations with special needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  13. Central Dental Evacuation Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    20 High-Vacuum Oral Evacuation System (HIVAC) for Oral Surgery, Periodontics, and Endodontics Treatment Rooms..................... 20...box-section steel rails. Rubber isolator pads between this frame and the structure floor absorb vibration and prevent its magnification . The inlet...System (HIVAC) for Oral Surgery, Periodontics, and Endodontics Treatment Rooms The HIVAC system is designed to build and sustain high vacuum pressures

  14. Evacuation and Community Shelters

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... solution − Emergency preparedness kit − Clothing and bedding − Car keys If local officials haven’t advised an immediate evacuation, take these steps to protect your home before you leave: − Turn off electricity at the main fuse or breaker and turn ...

  15. Evacuation drill at CMS

    CERN Multimedia

    Niels Dupont-Sagorin and Christoph Schaefer

    2012-01-01

    Training personnel, including evacuation guides and shifters, checking procedures, improving collaboration with the CERN Fire Brigade: the first real-life evacuation drill at CMS took place on Friday 3 February from 12p.m. to 3p.m. in the two caverns located at Point 5 of the LHC.   CERN personnel during the evacuation drill at CMS. Evacuation drills are required by law and have to be organized periodically in all areas of CERN, both above and below ground. The last drill at CMS, which took place in June 2007, revealed some desiderata, most notably the need for a public address system. With this equipment in place, it is now possible to broadcast audio messages from the CMS control room to the underground areas.   The CMS Technical Coordination Team and the GLIMOS have focused particularly on preparing collaborators for emergency situations by providing training and organizing regular safety drills with the HSE Unit and the CERN Fire Brigade. This Friday, the practical traini...

  16. Evacuation performance evaluation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farra, Sharon; Miller, Elaine T; Gneuhs, Matthew; Timm, Nathan; Li, Gengxin; Simon, Ashley; Brady, Whittney

    2016-01-01

    Hospitals conduct evacuation exercises to improve performance during emergency events. An essential aspect in this process is the creation of reliable and valid evaluation tools. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implications of a disaster evacuation performance tool that measures one portion of the very complex process of evacuation. Through the application of the Delphi technique and DeVellis's framework, disaster and neonatal experts provided input in developing this performance evaluation tool. Following development, content validity and reliability of this tool were assessed. Large pediatric hospital and medical center in the Midwest. The tool was pilot tested with an administrative, medical, and nursing leadership group and then implemented with a group of 68 healthcare workers during a disaster exercise of a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The tool has demonstrated high content validity with a scale validity index of 0.979 and inter-rater reliability G coefficient (0.984, 95% CI: 0.948-0.9952). The Delphi process based on the conceptual framework of DeVellis yielded a psychometrically sound evacuation performance evaluation tool for a NICU.

  17. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a

  18. Empirical model development and validation with dynamic learning in the recurrent multilayer perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlos, A.G.; Chong, K.T.; Atiya, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    A nonlinear multivariable empirical model is developed for a U-tube steam generator using the recurrent multilayer perceptron network as the underlying model structure. The recurrent multilayer perceptron is a dynamic neural network, very effective in the input-output modeling of complex process systems. A dynamic gradient descent learning algorithm is used to train the recurrent multilayer perceptron, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in convergence speed over static learning algorithms. In developing the U-tube steam generator empirical model, the effects of actuator, process,and sensor noise on the training and testing sets are investigated. Learning and prediction both appear very effective, despite the presence of training and testing set noise, respectively. The recurrent multilayer perceptron appears to learn the deterministic part of a stochastic training set, and it predicts approximately a moving average response. Extensive model validation studies indicate that the empirical model can substantially generalize (extrapolate), though online learning becomes necessary for tracking transients significantly different than the ones included in the training set and slowly varying U-tube steam generator dynamics. In view of the satisfactory modeling accuracy and the associated short development time, neural networks based empirical models in some cases appear to provide a serious alternative to first principles models. Caution, however, must be exercised because extensive on-line validation of these models is still warranted

  19. Behavior-based evacuation planning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we present a formulation of an evacuation planning problem that is inspired by motion planning and describe an integrated behavioral agent-based and roadmap-based motion planning approach to solve it. Our formulation allows users to test the effect on evacuation of a number of different environmental factors. One of our main focuses is to provide a mechanism to investigate how the interaction between agents influences the resulting evacuation plans. Specifically, we explore how various types of control provided by a set of directing agents effects the overall evacuation planning strategies of the evacuating agents. ©2010 IEEE.

  20. Dynamic gradient descent learning algorithms for enhanced empirical modeling of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlos, A.G.; Atiya, Amir; Chong, K.T.

    1991-01-01

    A newly developed dynamic gradient descent-based learning algorithm is used to train a recurrent multilayer perceptron network for use in empirical modeling of power plants. The two main advantages of the proposed learning algorithm are its ability to consider past error gradient information for future use and the two forward passes associated with its implementation, instead of one forward and one backward pass of the backpropagation algorithm. The latter advantage results in computational time saving because both passes can be performed simultaneously. The dynamic learning algorithm is used to train a hybrid feedforward/feedback neural network, a recurrent multilayer perceptron, which was previously found to exhibit good interpolation and extrapolation capabilities in modeling nonlinear dynamic systems. One of the drawbacks, however, of the previously reported work has been the long training times associated with accurate empirical models. The enhanced learning capabilities provided by the dynamic gradient descent-based learning algorithm are demonstrated by a case study of a steam power plant. The number of iterations required for accurate empirical modeling has been reduced from tens of thousands to hundreds, thus significantly expediting the learning process

  1. The agony of choice: different empirical mortality models lead to sharply different future forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bircher, Nicolas; Cailleret, Maxime; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-07-01

    Dynamic models are pivotal for projecting forest dynamics in a changing climate, from the local to the global scale. They encapsulate the processes of tree population dynamics with varying resolution. Yet, almost invariably, tree mortality is modeled based on simple, theoretical assumptions that lack a physiological and/or empirical basis. Although this has been widely criticized and a growing number of empirically derived alternatives are available, they have not been tested systematically in models of forest dynamics. We implemented an inventory-based and a tree-ring-based mortality routine in the forest gap model ForClim v3.0. We combined these routines with a stochastic and a deterministic approach for the determination of tree status (alive vs. dead). We tested the four new model versions for two Norway spruce forests in the Swiss Alps, one of which was managed (inventory time series spanning 72 years) and the other was unmanaged (41 years). Furthermore, we ran long-term simulations (-400 years) into the future under three climate scenarios to test model behavior under changing environmental conditions. The tests against inventory data showed an excellent match of simulated basal area and stem numbers at the managed site and a fair agreement at the unmanaged site for three of the four empirical mortality models, thus rendering the choice of one particular model difficult. However, long-term simulations under current climate revealed very different behavior of the mortality models in terms of simulated changes of basal area and stem numbers, both in timing and magnitude, thus indicating high sensitivity of simulated forest dynamics to assumptions on tree mortality. Our results underpin the potential of using empirical mortality routines in forest gap models. However, further tests are needed that span other climatic conditions and mixed forests. Short-term simulations to benchmark model behavior against empirical data are insufficient; long-term tests are

  2. Evacuation decision-making at three mile island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeigler, Donald. J.; Johnson, James. H.

    1987-01-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in 1979 provoked an unanticipated and unprecedented spontaneous evacuation of people living in the area. Following the accident, revised and upgraded emergency preparedness and response regulations were issued by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. (FEMA). This includes the assumption that public education and awareness will minimise the tendency of people to evacuate spontaneously from the vicinity of an accident. This assumption is challenged. Results of an empirical test of a casual model of emergency evacuation decision-making are given. This test was devised to aid understanding of the public behaviour at the time of the Three Mile Island incident. The emergency plans for the Sizewell-B reactor are subject to brief critical consideration. It is concluded that evacuation plans need to reflect people's natural inclinations to move away from a nuclear hazard. (UK)

  3. Planning for spontaneous evacuation during a radiological emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.H. Jr.

    1984-01-01

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) radiological emergency preparedness program ignores the potential problem of spontaneous evacuation during a nuclear reactor accident. To show the importance of incorporating the emergency spatial behaviors of the population at risk in radiological emergency preparedness and response plans, this article presents empirical evidence that demonstrates the potential magnitude and geographic extent of spontaneous evacuation in the event of an accident at the Long Island Lighting Company's Shoreham Nuclear Power Station. The results indicate that, on the average, 39% of the population of Long Island is likely to evacuate spontaneously and thus to cast an evacuation shadow extending at least 25 miles beyond the plant. On the basis of these findings, necessary revisions to FEMA's radiological emergency preparedness program are outlined

  4. Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

    2017-08-01

    Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

  5. Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

    2014-01-01

    Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

  6. Dynamics Of Social Legislation In Russian Empire In The Beginnings Of XX Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya G. Semionkina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present article regulations adopted in the Russian Empire at the beginning of the XX century and defining direction of social legislation development are considered. Norms that regulated state contempt of the lower ranks and members of their families in Russia, and also laws on social insurance are considered. There was no complete system of state social contempt in the Russian Empire. Help to needed was usually provided by numerous non-state charitable structures and societies, thus many of them were under patronage of the imperial family members. This help was provided, first - selectively, second - its size usually was very small. In general, specifics of the legislative ensuring of social support were defined by the features of development of entire legal system of the Russian Empire during this period, including, dynamics of normative legal acts adoption. Author draws a conclusion about preservation of the class character in the organization of the state contempt in the Russian Empire. In 1912 in the Russian Empire acts that directed creation of the system of social insurance for social protection of persons, victims of injuries and mutilations at the factory enterprises, and members of their family’s were adopted. Adoption of the acts regulating social insurance can be considered as a positive step in development of the social orientated legislation. But these acts were far from perfect, and first of all because their action extended on smaller part of the country's working population. According to the author, adoption of the legislation on social insurance became a basic step on the way of modern forms of the organization of the social help creation.

  7. Evacuation from a Complex Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Janne Gress; Dederichs, Anne

    2014-01-01

    How is the total evacuation time of a mixed population and its subgroups predicted by the evacuation tool STEPS? Simulation using STEPS is compared with experimental data and evaluated based on individual total egress times. It was found that the total egress times were similar for the simulation...... and experiment, but the human behavior occurring in the experiment was not reproduced in the simulations....

  8. Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-11-01

    We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative

  9. An empirical comparison of a dynamic software testability metric to static cyclomatic complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voas, Jeffrey M.; Miller, Keith W.; Payne, Jeffrey E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper compares the dynamic testability prediction technique termed 'sensitivity analysis' to the static testability technique termed cyclomatic complexity. The application that we chose in this empirical study is a CASE generated version of a B-737 autoland system. For the B-737 system we analyzed, we isolated those functions that we predict are more prone to hide errors during system/reliability testing. We also analyzed the code with several other well-known static metrics. This paper compares and contrasts the results of sensitivity analysis to the results of the static metrics.

  10. Evacuation modeling trends

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, Orlando; Alvear, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This book presents an overview of modeling definitions and concepts, theory on human behavior and human performance data, available tools and simulation approaches, model development, and application and validation methods. It considers the data and research efforts needed to develop and incorporate functions for the different parameters into comprehensive escape and evacuation simulations, with a number of examples illustrating different aspects and approaches. After an overview of basic modeling approaches, the book discusses benefits and challenges of current techniques. The representation of evacuees is a central issue, including human behavior and the proper implementation of representational tools. Key topics include the nature and importance of the different parameters involved in ASET and RSET and the interactions between them. A review of the current literature on verification and validation methods is provided, with a set of recommended verification tests and examples of validation tests. The book c...

  11. THE DYNAMIC INTER-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBESITY AND SCHOOL PERFORMANCE: NEW EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, Son; Hoang, Viet-Ngu; Vu, Xuan-Binh; Wilson, Clevo

    2017-12-04

    This paper proposes a new empirical model for examining the relationship between obesity and school performance using the simultaneous equation modelling approach. The lagged effects of both learning and health outcomes were included to capture both the dynamic and inter-relational aspects of the relationship between obesity and school performance. The empirical application of this study used comprehensive data from the first five waves of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), which commenced in 2004 (wave 1) and was repeated every two years until 2018. The study sample included 10,000 children, equally divided between two cohorts (infants and children) across Australia. The empirical results show that past learning and obesity status are strongly associated with most indicators of school outcomes, including reading, writing, spelling, grammar and numeracy national tests, and scores from the internationally standardized Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test and the Matrix Reasoning Test. The main findings of this study are robust due to the choice of obesity indicator and estimation methods.

  12. Empirical mode decomposition-adaptive least squares method for dynamic calibration of pressure sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhenjian; Wang, Zhongyu; Yi-Lin Forrest, Jeffrey; Wang, Qiyue; Lv, Jing

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, an approach combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with adaptive least squares (ALS) is proposed to improve the dynamic calibration accuracy of pressure sensors. With EMD, the original output of the sensor can be represented as sums of zero-mean amplitude modulation frequency modulation components. By identifying and excluding those components involved in noises, the noise-free output could be reconstructed with the useful frequency modulation ones. Then the least squares method is iteratively performed to estimate the optimal order and parameters of the mathematical model. The dynamic characteristic parameters of the sensor can be derived from the model in both time and frequency domains. A series of shock tube calibration tests are carried out to validate the performance of this method. Experimental results show that the proposed method works well in reducing the influence of noise and yields an appropriate mathematical model. Furthermore, comparative experiments also demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing ones.

  13. Evacuation emergency response model coupling atmospheric release advisory capability output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.C.; Lawver, B.S.; Buckley, D.W.; Finn, S.P.; Swenson, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sponsored project to develop a coupled set of models between those of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) system and candidate evacuation models is discussed herein. This report describes the ARAC system and discusses the rapid computer code developed and the coupling with ARAC output. The computer code is adapted to the use of color graphics as a means to display and convey the dynamics of an emergency evacuation. The model is applied to a specific case of an emergency evacuation of individuals surrounding the Rancho Seco Nuclear Power Plant, located approximately 25 miles southeast of Sacramento, California. The graphics available to the model user for the Rancho Seco example are displayed and noted in detail. Suggestions for future, potential improvements to the emergency evacuation model are presented

  14. Evacuation models and disaster psychology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vorst, H.C.M.

    2010-01-01

    In evacuation models of buildings, neighborhoods, areas, cities and countries important psychological parameters are not frequently used. In this paper the relevance of some important variables from disaster psychology will be discussed. Modeling psychological variables will enhance prediction of

  15. Chemical Agents: Facts about Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What CDC is Doing Blog: Public Health Matters Chemical Agents: Facts About Evacuation Format: Select one PDF [ ... on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Some kinds of chemical accidents or attacks, such as a train derailment ...

  16. Building Evacuation with Mobile Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Merkel, Sabrina

    2014-01-01

    The rapidly growing world population and increasingly dense settlements demand ever-larger and more complex buildings from today's engineers. In comparison to this technological progress, a building's equipment for emergency evacuation has been hardly developed further. This work presents a concept for a building evacuation system based on mobile devices. Furthermore, various algorithms for route planning with mobile devices and for indoor localization of mobile devices are addressed.

  17. The effect of empirical potential functions on modeling of amorphous carbon using molecular dynamics method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Longqiu; Xu, Ming; Song, Wenping; Ovcharenko, Andrey; Zhang, Guangyu; Jia, Ding

    2013-01-01

    Empirical potentials have a strong effect on the hybridization and structure of amorphous carbon and are of great importance in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In this work, amorphous carbon at densities ranging from 2.0 to 3.2 g/cm 3 was modeled by a liquid quenching method using Tersoff, 2nd REBO, and ReaxFF empirical potentials. The hybridization, structure and radial distribution function G(r) of carbon atoms were analyzed as a function of the three potentials mentioned above. The ReaxFF potential is capable to model the change of the structure of amorphous carbon and MD results are in a good agreement with experimental results and density function theory (DFT) at low density of 2.6 g/cm 3 and below. The 2nd REBO potential can be used when amorphous carbon has a very low density of 2.4 g/cm 3 and below. Considering the computational efficiency, the Tersoff potential is recommended to model amorphous carbon at a high density of 2.6 g/cm 3 and above. In addition, the influence of the quenching time on the hybridization content obtained with the three potentials is discussed.

  18. Empirical global model of upper thermosphere winds based on atmosphere and dynamics explorer satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedin, A. E.; Spencer, N. W.; Killeen, T. L.

    1988-01-01

    Thermospheric wind data obtained from the Atmosphere Explorer E and Dynamics Explorer 2 satellites have been used to generate an empirical wind model for the upper thermosphere, analogous to the MSIS model for temperature and density, using a limited set of vector spherical harmonics. The model is limited to above approximately 220 km where the data coverage is best and wind variations with height are reduced by viscosity. The data base is not adequate to detect solar cycle (F10.7) effects at this time but does include magnetic activity effects. Mid- and low-latitude data are reproduced quite well by the model and compare favorably with published ground-based results. The polar vortices are present, but not to full detail.

  19. Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

    2017-11-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  20. An Empirical Assessment of Social Unrest Dynamics and State Response in Eurasian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo de Cadenas-Santiago

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows an empirical assessment of social unrest dynamics in the Eurasian countries. We use a big database of social events (GDELT to build up several real time indexes of social unrest escalation by social agents divided in several stages consistent with the Unrest Lifecycle Theory (vindication, protest and conflict and alternatives measures of state response (repression and cooperation. We build a Vector Autoregressive (VAR model to analyse the unrest dynamic cycle of social agents and state response. Our results show that Eurasia is a fairly volatile region in what shock-generation and inertia relates. Social reactivity is also relevant but we find that this is stronger at the initial stages of unrest while it decays as the intensity of shocks increases. Repressive state response is a fact but it decays too in intensity as the conflict escalates along the unrest cycle, falling even into an accommodative mode. We attribute this behaviour to the limited state enforcing ability of among other things. Unrest and government action are not homogenous across the region, West and Central Eurasia are more prone to conflict escalation and their enforcing ability of the state is also lower. This gives an insight were prevalent unrest theories such as unrest lifecycle; deterrence and backslash seem more dominant. We also find traces of spill over-effects or contagion among countries who share boundaries but the intensity and sign is undefined. We compare these stylized facts against the MENA region and suggest that Eurasia carries similar though milder dynamics in all terms, volatility and reactivity of social unrest, state response and enforcing inability and contagion.

  1. Elementary students' evacuation route choice in a classroom: A questionnaire-based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Song, Ziqi

    2018-02-01

    Children evacuation is a critical but challenging issue. Unfortunately, existing researches fail to effectively describe children evacuation, which is likely due to the lack of experimental and empirical data. In this paper, a questionnaire-based experiment was conducted with children aged 8-12 years to study children route choice behavior during evacuation from in a classroom with two exits. 173 effective questionnaires were collected and the corresponding data were analyzed. From the statistical results, we obtained the following findings: (1) position, congestion, group behavior, and backtracking behavior have significant effects on children route choice during evacuation; (2) age only affects children backtracking behavior, and (3) no prominent effects based on gender and guidance were observed. The above findings may help engineers design some effective evacuation strategies for children.

  2. Dose reduction in evacuation proctography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hare, C.; Halligan, S.; Bartram, C.I.; Gupta, R.; Walker, A.E.; Renfrew, I.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this study was to reduce the patient radiation dose from evacuation proctography. Ninety-eight consecutive adult patients referred for proctography to investigate difficult rectal evacuation were studied using a digital imaging system with either a standard digital program for barium examinations, a reduced dose digital program (both with and without additional copper filtration), or Video fluoroscopy. Dose-area products were recorded for each examination and the groups were compared. All four protocols produced technically acceptable examinations. The low-dose program with copper filtration (median dose 382 cGy cm 2 ) and Video fluoroscopy (median dose 705 cGy cm 2 ) were associated with significantly less dose than other groups (p < 0.0001). Patient dose during evacuation proctography can be reduced significantly without compromising the diagnostic quality of the examination. A digital program with added copper filtration conveyed the lowest dose. (orig.)

  3. Solid evacuated microspheres of hydrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Robert J.; Foster, Christopher A.; Hendricks, Charles D.

    1982-01-01

    A method is provided for producing solid, evacuated microspheres comprised of hydrogen. The spheres are produced by forming a jet of liquid hydrogen and exciting mechanical waves on the jet of appropriate frequency so that the jet breaks up into drops with a bubble formed in each drop by cavitation. The drops are exposed to a pressure less than the vapor pressure of the liquid hydrogen so that the bubble which is formed within each drop expands. The drops which contain bubbles are exposed to an environment having a pressure just below the triple point of liquid hydrogen and they thereby freeze giving solid, evacuated spheres of hydrogen.

  4. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  5. Interpreting the dynamic nexus between energy consumption and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yuejun

    2011-01-01

    Research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low-carbon economic development. Russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years, while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now, especially its energy-growth nexus. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in Russia based on the state space model. The results indicate that, first of all, Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. Hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner. Second, ever since the year of 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades, mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress. Third, among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst, which suggests the complexity of energy-growth nexus in Russia. Finally, there exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory. - Research highlights: →This study investigates the dynamic nexus of energy consumption and economic growth in Russia. → Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. → Ever since 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades. → Among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst. → There exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth.

  6. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  7. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  8. An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

  9. Simulation and optimization of evacuation routes in case of fire in underground mines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vancho Adjiski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks of fire occurrence in underground mines are known for a long time. Evacuation and rescue plans allow to each underground mine to respond and establish control in case of emergency. The primary goal of this paper is to determine the optimal system for evacuation in case of fire in underground mines and through a process of computer simulation to be presented to all workers that are affected by this issue. In this study is developed a system that allows by using available software to work out the complete evacuation plans that include analysis of fire scenarios and optimal routes for evacuation. With development of database of fire scenarios, it is possible to plan routes for evacuation in all situations. This presented methodology can serve to make effective system for evacuation and rescue in case of fire and to help save lives and protect the financial investment in the mine. This methodology represents the most economical option of making an effective system for evacuation and also can serve as an idea of making a software package that includes all the steps of making a system for evacuation and rescue in case of fire in underground mines. This presented model will have increased accuracy compared to other models presented so far, because of the prepared 3D model of the underground mine which includes the actual dimensions of the mine along with its associated elements from which the fire dynamics and system for evacuation depends.

  10. Effectiveness of Installation Aeromedical Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-13

    rescheduling of aeromedical evacuation. Artificial Intelligence Magazine 20, no. 1: 43-53. Leineweber, Albert J., Fort Campbell Range Operations... cardiovascular , respiratory, and central nervous system functions. Lower scores indicated increased rates for mortality. ISS calculated the three...clinics or ambulatory care centers Role 1 Medical Care. Provides immediate lifesaving measures, disease and non-battle injury prevention and care

  11. Hospital evacuation; planning, assessment, performance and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Nero C Wabo; P Örtenwall; A Khorram-Manesh

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Malfunction in hospitals' complex internal systems, or extern threats, may result in a hospital evacuation. Factors contributing to such evacuation must be identified, analyzed and action plans should be prepared. Our aims in this study were 1) to evaluate the use of risk and vulnerability analysis as a basis for hospital evacuation plan, 2) to identify risks/hazards triggering an evacuation and evaluate the respond needed and 3) to propose a template with main key points for plann...

  12. Finding the attractor of anger: Bridging the gap between dynamic concepts and empirical data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoeksma, J.B.; Oosterlaan, J.; Schipper, E.; Koot, H.M.

    2007-01-01

    Although it accounts for the prototypical course of emotions, the attractor concept has hardly ever been used empirically. Authors applied Empirical Differential Equations (EDE) to frequent (hourly) anger ratings to find the attractor of anger. The attractor concept, its neurological basis, and EDE

  13. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  14. Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with pre-equilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

    KAUST Repository

    Bonnet-Lebrun, Anne-Sophie

    2017-03-17

    Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modelled communities - i.e., with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities - from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in pre-equilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under pre-equilibrium conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. Tsunami evacuation buildings and evacuation planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzal, Hendri; Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    Indonesia, a country of more than 17,000 islands, is exposed to many hazards. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. It triggered a series of tsunami waves that spread across the Indian Ocean causing damage in 11 countries. Banda Aceh, the capital city of Aceh Province, was among the most damaged. More than 31,000 people were killed. At the time, there were no early warning systems nor evacuation buildings that could provide safe refuge for residents. Since then, four tsunami evacuation buildings (TEBs) have been constructed in the Meuraxa subdistrict of Banda Aceh. Based on analysis of evacuation routes and travel times, the capacity of existing TEBs is examined. Existing TEBs would not be able to shelter all of the at-risk population. In this study, additional buildings and locations for TEBs are proposed and residents are assigned to the closest TEBs. While TEBs may be part of a larger system of tsunami mitigation efforts, other strategies and approaches need to be considered. In addition to TEBs, robust detection, warning and alert systems, land use planning, training, exercises, and other preparedness strategies are essential to tsunami risk reduction.

  16. Can cooperative behaviors promote evacuation efficiency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yuan; Zheng, Xiaoping

    2018-02-01

    This study aims to get insight into the question whether cooperative behaviors can promote the evacuation efficiency during an evacuation process. In this work, cooperative behaviors and evacuation efficiency have been examined in detail by using a cellular automata model with behavioral extension. The simulation results show that moderate cooperative behaviors can result in the highest evacuation efficiency. It is found that in a mixture of cooperative and competitive individuals, more cooperative people will lead to relatively high evacuation efficiency, and the larger subgroup will play a leading role. This work can also provide some new insights for the study of cooperative behaviors and evacuation efficiency which can be a scientific decision-making basis for emergency response involving large-scale crowd evacuation in emergencies.

  17. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

  18. Integrating Decentralized Indoor Evacuation with Information Depositories in the Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The lonelier evacuees find themselves, the riskier become their wayfinding decisions. This research supports single evacuees in a dynamically changing environment with risk-aware guidance. It deploys the concept of decentralized evacuation, where evacuees are guided by smartphones acquiring environmental knowledge and risk information via exploration and knowledge sharing by peer-to-peer communication. Peer-to-peer communication, however, relies on the chance that people come into communication range with each other. This chance can be low. To bridge between people being not at the same time at the same places, this paper suggests information depositories at strategic locations to improve information sharing. Information depositories collect the knowledge acquired by the smartphones of evacuees passing by, maintain this information, and convey it to other passing-by evacuees. Multi-agent simulation implementing these depositories in an indoor environment shows that integrating depositories improves evacuation performance: It enhances the risk awareness and consequently increases the chance that people survive and reduces their evacuation time. For evacuating dynamic events, deploying depositories at staircases has been shown more effective than deploying them in corridors.

  19. Evacuation exercise at the Kindergarten

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector.  The fire brigade checked t...

  20. An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  1. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  2. Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    1991-01-01

    Regional evacuation modeling is treated as a five step process: involving vehicle trip generation, trip departure time, trip destination, and trip route selection modeling, supplemented by plan set-up and analysis procedures. Progress under each of these headings is reviewed and gaps in the process identified. The potential for emergency planners to make use of real time traffic data, resulting from the recent technical and economic revolutions in telecommunications and infrared traffic sensing, is identified as the single greatest opportunity for the near future; and some beginnings in the development of real time dynamic traffic modeling specifically geared to evacuation planning are highlighted. Significant data problems associated with the time of day location of large urban populations represent a second area requiring extensive research. A third area requiring much additional effort is the translation of the considerable knowledge we have on evacuee behavior in times of crisis into reliable quantitative measures of the timing of evacuee mobilization, notably by distance from the source of the hazard. Specific evacuation models are referenced and categorized by method. Incorporation of evacuation model findings into the definition of emergency planning zone boundaries is also discussed.

  3. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Costanza; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and...

  4. Satellite-based empirical models linking river plume dynamics with hypoxic area andvolume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satellite-based empirical models explaining hypoxic area and volume variation were developed for the seasonally hypoxic (O2 < 2 mg L−1) northern Gulf of Mexico adjacent to the Mississippi River. Annual variations in midsummer hypoxic area and ...

  5. Routes to effective evacuation planning primer series : evacuating populations with special needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  6. Initial management of hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: a systematic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

    2013-06-01

    Hurricanes remain a major threat to hospitals throughout the world. The authors attempted to identify the planning areas that impact hospital management of evacuations and the challenges faced when sheltering-in-place. This observational, retrospective cohort study examined acute care institutions from one hospital system impacted by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Investigators used a standardized survey instrument and interview process, previously used in the hospital evacuation context, to examine hospitals' initial internal situational awareness and subsequent decision making that resulted in evacuation due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included representatives from senior leadership and clinical and nonclinical staff that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). The main measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions contained in the survey. Seven of ten eligible hospitals participated in the study. All facilities evacuated the sickest patients first. The most significant factors prompting evacuation were the issuing of mandatory evacuation orders, storm dynamics (category, projected path, storm surge), and loss of regional communications. Hospitals that sheltered-in-place experienced staff shortages, interruptions to electrical power, and loss of water supplies. Three fully-evacuated institutions experienced understaffing of 40%-60%, and four hospitals sustained depressed staffing levels for over four weeks. Five hospitals lost electricity for a mean of 4.8 days (range .5-11 days). All facilities continued to receive patients to their Emergency Departments (EDs) while conducting their own evacuation. Hospital EDs should plan for continuous patient arrival during evacuation. Emergency Operation Plans (EOPs) that anticipate challenges associated with evacuation will help to maximize initial decision making and management during a crisis situation. Hospitals that shelter-in-place face critical shortages and must provide independent patient

  7. Routine ultrasound guided evacuation of first trimester missed abortion versus blind evacuation

    OpenAIRE

    Mostafa Abdulla Elsayed

    2014-01-01

    Background: The clinical management of miscarriage has changed little over the years and many women undergo surgical uterine evacuation. Surgical evacuation of the uterine contents in missed abortion is a challenge to the obstetrician as it is done blindly. The current study recommends the use of ultrasound guided surgical evacuation. It serves two important advantages; the first is to complete evacuation without the need of additional step. The second is to protect against uterine perforatio...

  8. Evacuation in emergencies: An annotated guide to research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.

    1987-02-01

    The purpose of this literature review was to explore the relevant sources of knowledge regarding evacuation related issues among recent work published in the social sciences and emergency planning fields. In organizing the material, we looked primarily for articles that included either a theoretical or empirical basis for the findings. By empirical, we mean that the findings were based on data taken from actual research gained through surveys, questionnaires, interviews or a combination of these, and the use of secondary sources. The theoretical material consisted of work that built on past research or which explored the use of models. Some conceptual work, raising issues not covered by the general format, were included if they attempted to synthesize aspects of the literature now segmented or which asked additional questions about topics related to but not necessarily within the strict realm of research studies. The material was divided as to the emphasis placed on the individual or the organizational level of behavior. Empirically the individual, family or household response is easier to assess because of the bias that may intrude when individuals of organizations or agencies involved in the evacuation process are interviewed regarding their official status. The annotations of the literature as well as the specific key findings from each study, where appropriate, are organized by hazard type. An author index is provided.

  9. ICT diffusion, innovation systems, globalisation and regional economic dynamics: Theory and empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Karlsson, Charlie; Maier, Gunther; Trippl, Michaela; Siedschlag, Iulia; Owen, Robert; Murphy, Gavin

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to review the relevant theoretical and empirical literature to provide a conceptual and methodological background for the analysis of the consequences of ICT use and globalisation on the regional economies in the European Union. We highlight the key aspects of ICT as a general purpose technology, discuss the economic impacts of ICT diffusion from a macro as well as from a micro perspective, and examine the spatial consequences of ICT diffusion. We focus on regio...

  10. Perceptions of the Effectiveness of System Dynamics-Based Interactive Learning Environments: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2010-01-01

    The use of simulations in general and of system dynamics simulation based interactive learning environments (SDILEs) in particular is well recognized as an effective way of improving users' decision making and learning in complex, dynamic tasks. However, the effectiveness of SDILEs in classrooms has rarely been evaluated. This article describes…

  11. The Dynamics of Cognitive Performance: What Has Been Learnt from Empirical Research in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses investigations in science education addressing the nonlinear dynamical hypothesis. Learning science is a suitable field for applying interdisciplinary research and predominately for testing psychological theories. It was demonstrated that in this area the paradigm of complexity and nonlinear dynamics have offered theoretical…

  12. A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Exit selection strategy in pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue Hao; Zhang Bin-Ya; Shao Chun-Fu; Xing Yan

    2014-01-01

    A mixed strategy of the exit selection in a pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits is constructed by fusing the distance-based and time-based strategies through a cognitive coefficient, in order to reduce the evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of exits or pedestrian layout, to find a critical density to distinguish whether the strategy of exit selection takes effect or not, and to analyze the exit selection results with different cognitive coefficients. The strategy of exit selection is embedded in the computation of the shortest estimated distance in a dynamic parameter model, in which the concept of a jam area layer and the procedure of step-by-step expending are introduced. Simulation results indicate the characteristics of evacuation time gradually varying against cognitive coefficient and the effectiveness of reducing evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of pedestrian or exit layout. It is found that there is a critical density to distinguish whether a pedestrian jam occurs in the evacuation and whether an exit selection strategy is in effect. It is also shown that the strategy of exit selection has no effect on the evacuation process in the no-effect phase with a low density, and that evacuation time and exit selection are dependent on the cognitive coefficient and pedestrian initial density in the in-effect phase with a high density. (general)

  14. Application of Agent-Based Model Simulation for Tsunami Evacuation in Pacitan, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usman Fadly

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The most significant measure in reducing tsunami disaster is an early evacuation. The aim of this study is to developments a dynamic evacuation model with using simulation of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS. The Shelter Plan Analysis is also conducted in this study to establish applicable evacuation places. All analysis in this study based on a geographic information system (GIS data such as shelter location, evacuation networks, housing and other information. The shelter plan analysis is the methods to evaluate an applicable shelter. The important variable in this analysis is nearest accessibility based on the existing road from the residential area to the evacuation building. In order to set input data for this analysis, we conducted a questionnaire survey to the local people in Pacitan, which is a typical populated coastal city in Indonesia, located in East Java province. The agent-based model is according to multi criteria decision making (MCDM for internal and external factor. The concept of MCDM was used to develop a weighted suitability decision matrix in a simulation's model. We also conducted the field survey in this city, especially focused on the condition of evacuation shelters and evacuation networks, in order to evaluate the shelter plan on GIS as well as to conduct the simulation of the agent-based model.

  15. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  16. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2017-03-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  17. [Air medical evacuation on modern stage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belevitin, A B; Shelepov, A M; Bochenkov, A A; Iamenskov, V V; Grebeniuk, S A; Peshkov, V V

    2010-01-01

    There was effectuated an analyze of using of aircrafts for medical air evacuation of ill and wounded persons, was shown it's place in system of treatment-evacuation measures during the war and peaceful time in course of liquidation of consequences of natural disasters. The article presents main clinical-physiological aspects of medical air evacuation, peculiarities of organization of delivery of health care aboard aircraft, state of medical air evacuation for now-days. The article presents characteristics of purposes and supply of created sanitary planes and helicopters: Mi-8MB "Bisectrix", An-26M "Saver", Il-76MD "Bistoury". There elaborated recommendations upon organization of medical air evacuation during war and peaceful time.

  18. Modeling Dynamics of Wikipedia: An Empirical Analysis Using a Vector Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Feng-Jun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a system dynamic model of Wikipedia based on the co-evolution theory, and investigated the interrelationships among topic popularity, group size, collaborative conflict, coordination mechanism, and information quality by using the vector error correction model (VECM. This study provides a useful framework for analyzing the dynamics of Wikipedia and presents a formal exposition of the VECM methodology in the information system research.

  19. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene

    OpenAIRE

    Nick Rohrbaugh; Kelsey Bogue; Melissa G. Hunt

    2012-01-01

    Simple Summary Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones during the 2011 Hurricane Irene were surveyed about whether or not they evacuated and about their experiences during the hurricane. Although pet-ownership was not statistically associated with evacuation failure, many pet owners who chose not to evacuate still claimed that they did not evacuate because of difficulties with evacuating their pet. These findings suggest that more work needs to be done ...

  20. Evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, C.; Sørensen, J.G.; Dederichs, A.S.

    2012-01-01

    An understanding of human evacuation dynamics and performance are important when designing complex buildings such as bridges and when applying performance-based codes in order to reduce the risk of exposing occupants to critical conditions in case of fire. The majority of previous studies deal....... The discussion of "equal access" is only followed slowly by the demand on "equal egress". However, the passengers on trains on bridges are rarely homogeneous mixture. At the same time equal egress is far from assured today. In this paper the evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges are considered...... of the people in the train affects these times. More real data on subgroups of a mixed population are needed as input and validation data for models like STEPS....

  1. Further steps in the modeling of behavioural crowd dynamics, good news for safe handling. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopoff, Damián A.

    2016-09-01

    The recent review paper [4] constitutes a valuable contribution on the understanding, modeling and simulation of crowd dynamics in extreme situations. It provides a very comprehensive revision about the complexity features of the system under consideration, scaling and the consequent justification of the used methods. In particular, macro and microscopic models have so far been used to model crowd dynamics [9] and authors appropriately explain that working at the mesoscale is a good choice to deal with the heterogeneous behaviour of walkers as well as with the difficulty of their deterministic identification. In this way, methods based on the kinetic theory and statistical dynamics are employed, more precisely the so-called kinetic theory for active particles [7]. This approach has successfully been applied in the modeling of several complex dynamics, with recent applications to learning [2,8] that constitutes the key to understand communication and is of great importance in social dynamics and behavioral sciences.

  2. The dynamic interdependence of international financial markets: An empirical study on twenty-seven stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingwei; Zheng, Xiaolong; Zeng, Daniel Dajun

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we aim to investigate the dynamic interdependence of international financial markets. Based on the data regarding daily returns of each market during the period 2006-2015 from Yahoo finance, we mainly focus on examining 27 markets from three continents, including Asia, America and Europe. By checking the dynamic interdependence between those markets, we find that markets from different continents have strong correlation at specific time shift. We also obtain that markets from different continents not only have a strong linkage with others at same day, but at a delay of one day, especially between Asia, Europe and Asia, America. In addition, we further analyze the time-varying influence strength between each two continents and observe that this value has abnormal changes during the financial crisis. These findings can provide us significant insights to understand the underlying dynamic interdependency of international financial markets and further help us make corresponding reasonable decisions.

  3. Using Empirical Evidence in the Process of Proving: The Case of Dynamic Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guven, Bulent; Cekmez, Erdem; Karatas, Ilhan

    2010-01-01

    With the emergence of Dynamic Geometry Software (DGS), a theoretical gap between the acquisition (inductive) and the justification (deductive) of a mathematical statement has started a debate. Some educators believe that deductive proof in geometry should be abandoned in favour of an experimental approach to mathematical justification. This…

  4. Empirical Classification of Trajectory Data: An Opportunity for the Use of Machine Learning in Molecular Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Barry K; Ezra, Gregory S; Farantos, Stavros C; Kramer, Zeb C; Wiggins, Stephen

    2018-04-05

    Classical Hamiltonian trajectories are initiated at random points in phase space on a fixed energy shell of a model two degrees of freedom potential, consisting of two interacting minima in an otherwise flat energy plane of infinite extent. Below the energy of the plane, the dynamics are demonstrably chaotic. However, most of the work in this paper involves trajectories at a fixed energy that is 1% above that of the plane, in which regime the dynamics exhibit behavior characteristic of chaotic scattering. The trajectories are analyzed without reference to the potential, as if they had been generated in a typical direct molecular dynamics simulation. The questions addressed are whether one can recover useful information about the structures controlling the dynamics in phase space from the trajectory data alone, and whether, despite the at least partially chaotic nature of the dynamics, one can make statistically meaningful predictions of trajectory outcomes from initial conditions. It is found that key unstable periodic orbits, which can be identified on the analytical potential, appear by simple classification of the trajectories, and that the specific roles of these periodic orbits in controlling the dynamics are also readily discerned from the trajectory data alone. Two different approaches to predicting trajectory outcomes from initial conditions are evaluated, and it is shown that the more successful of them has ∼90% success. The results are compared with those from a simple neural network, which has higher predictive success (97%) but requires the information obtained from the "by-hand" analysis to achieve that level. Finally, the dynamics, which occur partly on the very flat region of the potential, show characteristics of the much-studied phenomenon called "roaming." On this potential, it is found that roaming trajectories are effectively "failed" periodic orbits and that angular momentum can be identified as a key controlling factor, despite the fact that

  5. Empirical potential and elasticity theory modelling of interstitial dislocation loops in UO2 for cluster dynamics application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le-Prioux, Arno

    2017-01-01

    During irradiation in reactor, the microstructure of UO 2 changes and deteriorates, causing modifications of its physical and mechanical properties. The kinetic models used to describe these changes such as cluster dynamics (CRESCENDO calculation code) consider the main microstructural elements that are cavities and interstitial dislocation loops, and provide a rather rough description of the loop thermodynamics. In order to tackle this issue, this work has led to the development of a thermodynamic model of interstitial dislocation loops based on empirical potential calculations. The model considers two types of interstitial dislocation loops on two different size domains: Type 1: Dislocation loops similar to Frank partials in F.C.C. materials which are stable in the smaller size domain. Type 2: Perfect dislocation loops of Burgers vector (a/2)(110) stable in the larger size domain. The analytical formula used to compute the interstitial dislocation loop formation energies is the one for circular loops which has been modified in order to take into account the effects of the dislocation core, which are significant at smaller sizes. The parameters have been determined by empirical potential calculations of the formation energies of prismatic pure edge dislocation loops. The effect of the habit plane reorientation on the formation energies of perfect dislocation loops has been taken into account by a simple interpolation method. All the different types of loops seen during TEM observations are thus accounted for by the model. (author) [fr

  6. Computational design of hepatitis C vaccines using empirical fitness landscapes and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Gregory; Ferguson, Andrew

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) afflicts 170 million people and kills 350,000 annually. Vaccination offers the most realistic and cost effective hope of controlling this epidemic. Despite 25 years of research, no vaccine is available. A major obstacle is the virus' extreme genetic variability and rapid mutational escape from immune pressure. Improvements in the vaccine design process are urgently needed. Coupling data mining and maximum entropy inference, we have developed a computational approach to translate sequence databases into empirical fitness landscapes. These landscapes explicitly connect viral genotype to phenotypic fitness and reveal vulnerable targets that can be exploited to rationally design vaccines. These landscapes represent the mutational ''playing field'' over which the virus evolves. We have integrated them with agent-based models of the viral mutational and host immune response, establishing a data-driven multi-scale immune simulator. We have used this simulator to perform in silico screening of HCV immunogens to rationally design vaccines to both cripple viral fitness and block escape. By systematically identifying a small number of promising vaccine candidates, these models can accelerate the search for a vaccine by massively reducing the experimental search space.

  7. Tsunami evacuation simulation considering differences in evacuation means depending on the household attribute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiki, Nao; Hirata, Yoshiki; Matsuo, Kojiro

    2017-10-01

    Large scale earthquakes occur frequently in Japan in recent years. In the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011 and caused major damage, more than 90% of the dead were due to the tsunami. The speed of evacuation is important in considering evacuation at the time of the attack of the tsunami, especially the elderly evacuation speed is assumed to be slower than non-elderly people. Elderly people may have different means of evacuation and speed depending on the composition of the households to which they belong because of the different possibilities of riding in families' driven cars. However, a simulation taking such a difference of evacuation into consideration has not been conducted. The purpose of this study is to conduct a tsunami evacuation simulation in consideration of evacuation measures and speed depending on the type of households belonging to in the tsunami inundation area of Toyohashi city, Japan. In order to conduct the tsunami evacuation simulation considering the household type, detailed data on individual households is necessary. However, it is difficult to obtain from aggregated data such as National Census. Therefore, detailed data on individual households is created by using the household micro data estimation system developed by Sugiki et al. [1]. Evacuation simulation is performed by shortest path search using Esri's ArcGIS Network Analyst's OD cost matrix analysis. The elderly people who cannot complete evacuation by the time of the arrival of the tsunami were found from evacuation simulation results assuming evacuation measures available for each household attribute to which the evacuees belong.

  8. Factors associated with high-rise evacuation: qualitative results from the World Trade Center Evacuation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershon, Robyn R M; Qureshi, Kristine A; Rubin, Marcie S; Raveis, Victoria H

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fact that most high-rise structures (i.e., >75 feet high, or eight to ten stories) are constructed with extensive and redundant fire safety features, current fire safety procedures typically only involve limited evacuation during minor to moderate fire emergencies. Therefore, full-scale evacuation of high-rise buildings is highly unusual and consequently, little is known about how readily and rapidly high-rise structures can be evacuated fully. Factors that either facilitate or inhibit the evacuation process remain under-studied. This paper presents results from the qualitative phase of the World Trade Center Evacuation Study, a three-year, five-phase study designed to improve our understanding of the individual, organizational, and environmental factors that helped or hindered evacuation from the World Trade Center (WTC) Towers 1 and 2, on 11 September 2001. Qualitative data from semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus groups involving WTC evacuees were collected and analyzed. On the individual level, factors that affected evacuation included perception of risk (formed largely by sensory cues), preparedness training, degree of familiarity with the building, physical condition, health status, and footwear. Individual behavior also was affected by group behavior and leadership. At the organizational level, evacuation was affected by worksite preparedness planning, including the training and education of building occupants, and risk communication. The environmental conditions affecting evacuation included smoke, flames, debris, general condition and degree of crowdedness on staircases, and communication infrastructure systems (e.g., public address, landline, cellular and fire warden's telephones). Various factors at the individual, organizational, and environmental levels were identified that affected evacuation. Interventions that address the barriers to evacuation may improve the full-scale evacuation of other high-rise buildings under extreme

  9. Evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, C.; Sørensen, J.G.; Dederichs, A.S.

    2012-01-01

    An understanding of human evacuation dynamics and performance are important when designing complex buildings such as bridges and when applying performance-based codes in order to reduce the risk of exposing occupants to critical conditions in case of fire. The majority of previous studies deal wi...... of the people in the train affects these times. More real data on subgroups of a mixed population are needed as input and validation data for models like STEPS....... with the evacuation behavior of abled bodied homogeneous groups. Hence, a significant part of the population is poorly described such as are people with impairments which are about 10%-21% of the world's population, furthermore elderly people, giving an additional 10% and 20% of the population are aged below 15 years....... The populations applied in the experiment are mixed according to a composition corresponding to the population of Denmark. The study has the following findings: the total evacuation times increase with a factor 1.5 when accounting for a mixed population comprehending a variety of age and impairments. The seating...

  10. Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-Hua Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the loss of life and property and to smoothly resume the transport network as soon as possible. This paper considers the dynamic changes of the hazardous chemicals’ concentration after their leakage and simulates the diffusion process. Based on the characteristics of emergency evacuation of hazardous chemical accidents, we build a mixed-integer programming model and design a heuristic algorithm using network optimization and diffusion simulation (hereafter NODS. We then verify the validity and feasibility of the algorithm using Jinan, China, as a computational example. In the end, we compare the results from different scenarios to explore the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the evacuation process.

  11. [Intergenerational transmission of trauma--empirical research and family dynamics approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klütsch, Verena; Reich, Günter

    2012-01-01

    A tendency to pass on traumatic experiences from one generation to the next can be observed in family systems. This continuity manifests itself very differently, e. g. in posttraumatic stress disorders, anxiety disorders, mood disorders, aggressive behavior, social withdrawal or health risk behaviors in the second or third generation. Besides physiological mechanisms (e. g. levels of cortisol) psychosocial "mediators" as attachment security, emotional regulation and availability, parenting style as well as family dynamic processes like family secrets, communication deviances and resulting disturbances of mentalization, disturbances of interpersonal boundaries, conflicts of loyalty and delegation are of relevance. A case example and considerations of resilience processes are given as well.

  12. Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

    2017-03-01

    Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

  13. Dynamic Model of Islamic Hybrid Securities: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia Islamic Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaafar Pyeman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Capital structure selection is fundamentally important in corporate financial management as it influence on mutually return and risk to stakeholders. Despite of Malaysia’s position as one of the major players of Islamic Financial Market, there are still lack of studies has been conducted on the capital structure of shariah compliant firms especially related to hybrid securities. The objective of this study is to determine the hybrid securities issuance model among the shariah compliant firms in Malaysia. As such, this study is to expand the literature review by providing comprehensive analysis on the hybrid capital structure and to develop dynamic Islamic hybrid securities model for shariah compliant firms. We use panel data of 50 companies that have been issuing the hybrid securities from the year of 2004- 2012. The outcomes of the studies are based on the dynamic model GMM estimation for the determinants of hybrid securities. Based on our model, risk and growth are considered as the most determinant factors for issuing convertible bond and loan stock. These results suggest that, the firms that have high risk but having good growth prospect will choose hybrid securities of convertible bond. The model also support the backdoor equity listing hypothesis by Stein (1992 where the hybrid securities enable the profitable firms to venture into positive NPV project by issuing convertible bond as it offer lower coupon rate as compare to the normal debt rate

  14. The Bali bombing: civilian aeromedical evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Minh D; Garner, Alan A; Morrison, Ion; Sharley, Peter H; Griggs, William M; Xavier, Colin

    2003-10-06

    After the Bali bombing on 12 October 2002, many injured Australians required evacuation to Darwin, and then to burns units around Australia. Many patients were evacuated from Denpasar by Qantas, with assistance from staff of civilian medical retrieval services. The transport of patients from Darwin to specialist burns units involved a coordinated response of civilian and military services. Some issues in responding to such disasters were identified, and a national coordinating network could improve future responses.

  15. Incorporating topography in a cellular automata model to simulate residents evacuation in a mountain area in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Liu, Mao; Meng, Bo

    2013-02-01

    In China, both the mountainous areas and the number of people who live in mountain areas occupy a significant proportion. When production accidents or natural disasters happen, the residents in mountain areas should be evacuated and the evacuation is of obvious importance to public safety. But it is a pity that there are few studies on safety evacuation in rough terrain. The particularity of the complex terrain in mountain areas, however, makes it difficult to study pedestrian evacuation. In this paper, a three-dimensional surface cellular automata model is proposed to numerically simulate the real time dynamic evacuation of residents. The model takes into account topographic characteristics (the slope gradient) of the environment and the biomechanics characteristics (weight and leg extensor power) of the residents to calculate the walking speed. This paper only focuses on the influence of topography and the physiological parameters are defined as constants according to a statistical report. Velocity varies with the topography. In order to simulate the behavior of a crowd with varying movement velocities, and a numerical algorithm is used to determine the time step of iteration. By doing so, a numerical simulation can be conducted in a 3D surface CA model. Moreover, considering residents evacuation around a gas well in a mountain area as a case, a visualization system for a three-dimensional simulation of pedestrian evacuation is developed. In the simulation process, population behaviors of congestion, queuing and collision avoidance can be observed. The simulation results are explained reasonably. Therefore, the model presented in this paper can realize a 3D dynamic simulation of pedestrian evacuation vividly in complex terrain and predict the evacuation procedure and evacuation time required, which can supply some valuable information for emergency management.

  16. Empirical Evidence for Impacts of Internal Migration on Vegetation Dynamics in China from 1982 to 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingfeng Xiao

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Migration is one of the major socio-economic characteristics of China since the country adopted the policy of economic reform in late 1970s. Many studies have been dedicated to understand why and how people move, and the consequences of their welfare. The purpose of this study is to investigate the environmental impacts of the large scale movement of population in China. We analyzed the trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR along with China migration data from the 1 percent national survey during 1982-1987, the 4th national census during 1985-1990 and the 5th national census during1995~2000. We found that the internal migration in China has a statistically significant negative impact on vegetation growth at the provincial scale from 1982 to 2000 even though the overall vegetation abundance increased in China. The impact from migration (R2=0.47, P=0.0001 on vegetation dynamics is the second strongest as among the factors considered, including changes in annual mean air temperature (R2=0.50, P=0.0001 and annual total precipitation (R2=0.30, P=0.0049 and gross domestic production (R2= 0.25, P=0.0102. The negative statistical relationship between the rate of increase in total migration and the change in vegetation abundance is stronger (R2=0.56, P=0.0000 after controlling for the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation. In-migration dominates the impacts of migration on vegetation dynamics. Therefore, it is important for policy makers in China to take the impacts of migration on vegetation growth into account while making policies aiming at sustainable humanenvironment relations.

  17. An empirical analysis of China's energy efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhaohua; Feng, Chao; Zhang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the global DEA (data envelopment analysis), this paper analyzes China's energy efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives based on China's provincial panel data for the period of 2001–2010. We present the evolution of energy efficiency in China from 2001 to 2010, and identify the key factors influencing the energy efficiency from the aspects of technical progress, productive scale and management level. The results show that there was an overall declining trend for China's energy efficiency from 2001 to 2005, and technical regress and the decrease in scale efficiency were the main reasons for this decline. Then an overall rising trend appeared during 2005–2010, and technical progress was the most important motivation for this increase. Moreover, among the three main regions in China, the eastern China was leading in the energy efficiency during the sample period, while the energy efficiency in western China fell far behind since the beginning. And the energy efficiency in central China was in the middle. This indicates that west region may be China's promising growth engine of energy efficiency in the future, and further technical progress is thought to be the key motivation for this improvement. - Highlights: • We analyze China's energy efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives. • The global DEA (data envelopment analysis) method is utilized in this paper. • Technical progress is the key factor for the change of China's energy efficiency. • There are significant differences in energy efficiency of different regions in China. • Western area is China's promising growth engine of energy efficiency in the future

  18. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  19. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; Kauko, Hanna M.; Assmy, Philipp; Rösel, Anja; Itkin, Polona; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Sundfjord, Arild; Steen, Harald; Hop, Haakon; Cohen, Lana; Peterson, Algot K.; Jeffery, Nicole; Elliott, Scott M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.

    2017-07-01

    Large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.

  1. Theoretical flow investigations of an all glass evacuated tubular collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Louise Jivan; Furbo, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Heat transfer and flow structures inside all glass evacuated tubular collectors for different operating conditions are investigated by means of computational fluid dynamics. The investigations are based on a collector design with horizontal tubes connected to a vertical 14 manifold channel. Three...... the highest efficiency, the optimal inlet flow rate was around 0.4-1 kg/min, the flow structures in the glass tubes were relatively uninfluenced by the inlet flow rate, Generally, the results showed only small variations in the efficiencies. This indicates that the collector design is well working for most...

  2. Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Richards, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure as a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

  3. A method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Mengxiao; Zhang, Guijuan; Wang, Mengsi; Lu, Dianjie; Liu, Hong

    2017-10-01

    The current evacuation model does not consider the impact of emotion and personality on crowd evacuation. Thus, there is large difference between evacuation results and the real-life behavior of the crowd. In order to generate more realistic crowd evacuation results, we present a method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation. First, we combine OCEAN (Openness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism, Conscientiousness) model and SIS (Susceptible Infected Susceptible) model to construct the P-SIS (Personalized SIS) emotional contagion model. The P-SIS model shows the diversity of individuals in crowd effectively. Second, we couple the P-SIS model with the social force model to simulate emotional contagion on crowd evacuation. Finally, the photo-realistic rendering method is employed to obtain the animation of crowd evacuation. Experimental results show that our method can simulate crowd evacuation realistically and has guiding significance for crowd evacuation in the emergency circumstances.

  4. How to kill a tree: empirical mortality models for 18 species and their performance in a dynamic forest model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülsmann, Lisa; Bugmann, Harald; Cailleret, Maxime; Brang, Peter

    2018-03-01

    Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) are designed to be suitable for simulating forest succession and species range dynamics under current and future conditions based on mathematical representations of the three key processes regeneration, growth, and mortality. However, mortality formulations in DVMs are typically coarse and often lack an empirical basis, which increases the uncertainty of projections of future forest dynamics and hinders their use for developing adaptation strategies to climate change. Thus, sound tree mortality models are highly needed. We developed parsimonious, species-specific mortality models for 18 European tree species using >90,000 records from inventories in Swiss and German strict forest reserves along a considerable environmental gradient. We comprehensively evaluated model performance and incorporated the new mortality functions in the dynamic forest model ForClim. Tree mortality was successfully predicted by tree size and growth. Only a few species required additional covariates in their final model to consider aspects of stand structure or climate. The relationships between mortality and its predictors reflect the indirect influences of resource availability and tree vitality, which are further shaped by species-specific attributes such as maximum longevity and shade tolerance. Considering that the behavior of the models was biologically meaningful, and that their performance was reasonably high and not impacted by changes in the sampling design, we suggest that the mortality algorithms developed here are suitable for implementation and evaluation in DVMs. In the DVM ForClim, the new mortality functions resulted in simulations of stand basal area and species composition that were generally close to historical observations. However, ForClim performance was poorer than when using the original, coarse mortality formulation. The difficulties of simulating stand structure and species composition, which were most evident for Fagus sylvatica L

  5. Modeling to Optimize Hospital Evacuation Planning in EMS Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bish, Douglas R; Tarhini, Hussein; Amara, Roel; Zoraster, Richard; Bosson, Nichole; Gausche-Hill, Marianne

    2017-01-01

    To develop optimal hospital evacuation plans within a large urban EMS system using a novel evacuation planning model and a realistic hospital evacuation scenario, and to illustrate the ways in which a decision support model may be useful in evacuation planning. An optimization model was used to produce detailed evacuation plans given the number and type of patients in the evacuating hospital, resource levels (teams to move patients, vehicles, and beds at other hospitals), and evacuation rules. Optimal evacuation plans under various resource levels and rules were developed and high-level metrics were calculated, including evacuation duration and the utilization of resources. Using this model we were able to determine the limiting resources and demonstrate how strategically augmenting the resource levels can improve the performance of the evacuation plan. The model allowed the planner to test various evacuation conditions and resource levels to demonstrate the effect on performance of the evacuation plan. We present a hospital evacuation planning analysis for a hospital in a large urban EMS system using an optimization model. This model can be used by EMS administrators and medical directors to guide planning decisions and provide a better understanding of various resource allocation decisions and rules that govern a hospital evacuation.

  6. Panic evacuation of single pedestrians and couples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, G. A.; Dorso, C. O.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding the timing requirements for evacuation of people has focused primarily on independent pedestrians rather than pedestrians emotionally connected. However, the main statistical effects observed in crowds, the so-called “faster is slower”, “clever is not always better” and the “low visibility enhancement”, cannot explain the overall behavior of a crowd during an evacuation process when correlated pedestrians due to, for example feelings, are present. Our research addresses this issue and examines the statistical behavior of a mixture of individuals and couples during a (panic) escaping process. We found that the attractive feeling among couples plays an important role in the time delays during the evacuation of a single exit room.

  7. Behavioral effects in room evacuation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossetti, V.; Bouzat, S.; Kuperman, M. N.

    2017-08-01

    In this work we study a model for the evacuation of pedestrians from an enclosure considering a continuous space substrate and discrete time. We analyze the influence of behavioral features that affect the use of the empty space, that can be linked to the attitudes or characters of the pedestrians. We study how the interaction of different behavioral profiles affects the needed time to evacuate completely a room and the occurrence of clogging. We find that neither fully egotistic nor fully cooperative attitudes are optimal from the point of view of the crowd. In contrast, intermediate behaviors provide lower evacuation times. This leads us to identify some phenomena closely analogous to the faster-is-slower effect. The proposed model allows for distinguishing between the role of the attitudes in the search for empty space and the attitudes in the conflicts.

  8. Comparison of calculation and simulation of evacuation in real buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szénay, Martin; Lopušniak, Martin

    2018-03-01

    Each building must meet requirements for safe evacuation in order to prevent casualties. Therefore methods for evaluation of evacuation are used when designing buildings. In the paper, calculation methods were tested on three real buildings. The testing used methods of evacuation time calculation pursuant to Slovak standards and evacuation time calculation using the buildingExodus simulation software. If calculation methods have been suitably selected taking into account the nature of evacuation and at the same time if correct values of parameters were entered, we will be able to obtain almost identical times of evacuation in comparison with real results obtained from simulation. The difference can range from 1% to 27%.

  9. Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, A.W.; Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, K.; Smyth, P.J.

    2011-04-08

    This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to

  10. Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravtsov, S. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Robertson, Andrew W. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Smyth, Padhraic J. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2011-04-08

    This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to

  11. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2014-01-01

    an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...

  12. Evacuation characteristics of visually impaired people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Janne Gress; Dederichs, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Evacuation characteristics for blind and visually impaired people are presented in the current study. The study was carried out in 2011 and engaged 40 participants in the age from 10 to 69 years. The participants had impairments for all of the four Danish categories for visual impairments (A...

  13. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  14. An adaptive simulation tool for evacuation scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Formolo, Daniel; van der Wal, C. Natalie

    2017-01-01

    Building useful and efficient models and tools for a varied audience, such as evacuation simulators for scientists, engineers and crisis managers, can be tricky. Even good models can fail in providing information when the user’s tools for the model are scarce of resources. The aim of this work is to

  15. Evacuation and assembly of aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev

    1999-01-01

    The application of monolithic silica aerogel as transparent insulation material for windows has been investigated for some years. It has been realised that a major problem of an industrial production of aerogel glazings will be the time for evacuation of the aerogel material. However, in a previous...

  16. Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Liu, Hong; Qin, Xin; Liu, Baoxi

    2018-02-01

    Studies of crowd behavior with related research on computer simulation provide an effective basis for architectural design and effective crowd management. Based on low-density group organization patterns, a modified two-layer social force model is proposed in this paper to simulate and reproduce a group gathering process. First, this paper studies evacuation videos from the Luan'xian earthquake in 2012, and extends the study of group organization patterns to a higher density. Furthermore, taking full advantage of the strength in crowd gathering simulations, a new method on grouping and guidance is proposed while using crowd dynamics. Second, a real-life grouping situation in earthquake evacuation is simulated and reproduced. Comparing with the fundamental social force model and existing guided crowd model, the modified model reduces congestion time and truly reflects group behaviors. Furthermore, the experiment result also shows that a stable group pattern and a suitable leader could decrease collision and allow a safer evacuation process.

  17. FIRE EVACUATION FROM HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korol'chenko Aleksandr Yakovlevich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors argue that no collapse of structures is likely in the event of a fire emergency in multistoried buildings, rather, other fire-related factors may endanger the lives of people inside high-rise buildings exposed to the fire emergency, including open fire, sparks, high ambient temperature, smoke and toxic combustion products, reduced concentration of oxygen, and combined influence of various factors. In case of fire, the temperature inside buildings reaches 1100 °С. It exceeds the temperature of the ambient air acceptable for humans by far (70 °С. The experiments demonstrate that combustion products contain hundreds of toxic chemical compounds. The most hazardous of them include carbon oxide, carbon dioxide, chloride and cyanic hydrogen, aldehydes and acrolein. The author provides the pattern of their influence on the human body. The smoke consists of unburned particles of carbon and aerosols. The size of particles fluctuates within 0.05-50 MMK. Smoke produces a physiological and psychological impact on human beings. It has been proven that dangerous fire factors emerge within the first five to ten minutes of the emergency situation. Evacuation is the principal method of safety assurance. However, the velocity of propagation of smoke and heat is so high that even if the fire prevention system is in operation, people may be blocked both on the floors that are exposed to the fire and those that escape its propagation. New evacuation and rescue methods are recommended by the author. Various ways and methods of use of life-saving facilities are also provided. Safe evacuation is feasible from buildings where the number of stories does not exceed 10- 12. During evacuation, high density human streams are formed inside buildings, therefore, the period of stay in a burning building is increased. The calculations have proven that a two-minute delay of evacuation converts into a safe evacuation of only 13-15% of people. Low reliability of

  18. Aircraft industry workers in evacuation: conditions of life of evacuated plants' workers in 1941-1945

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Михаил Юрьевич Мухин

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the work of the factories in 1941-1945 in the evacuation. The author analyzes the living conditions of workers in evacuated aviation plants, their daily life, maintenance, etc. The author concludes that in the early years of the War the conditions of life of the aviation industry's workers were very difficult, and the welfare and financial situation improved in 1944, the sure sign of fracture in the Second world war.

  19. 21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

  20. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgiadou, Paraskevi S.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Kiranoudis, Chris T.; Markatos, Nikolaos C.

    2007-01-01

    A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies

  1. Agent-based evacuation simulation for spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia; Wen, Jiahong; Jiang, Yong

    2015-12-01

    The construction of urban shelters is one of the most important work in urban planning and disaster prevention. The spatial allocation assessment is a fundamental pre-step for spatial location-allocation of urban shelters. This paper introduces a new method which makes use of agent-based technology to implement evacuation simulation so as to conduct dynamic spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters. The method can not only accomplish traditional geospatial evaluation for urban shelters, but also simulate the evacuation process of the residents to shelters. The advantage of utilizing this method lies into three aspects: (1) the evacuation time of each citizen from a residential building to the shelter can be estimated more reasonably; (2) the total evacuation time of all the residents in a region is able to be obtained; (3) the road congestions in evacuation in sheltering can be detected so as to take precautionary measures to prevent potential risks. In this study, three types of agents are designed: shelter agents, government agents and resident agents. Shelter agents select specified land uses as shelter candidates for different disasters. Government agents delimitate the service area of each shelter, in other words, regulate which shelter a person should take, in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distance between the person's position and the location of the shelter. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, walking speeds, and so on. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, helping old people and children, and so on. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, evacuation procedures can be simulated and dynamic allocation assessment of shelters will be achieved. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. A scenario of earthquake disaster which occurs in nighttime

  2. Study on Earthquake Emergency Evacuation Drill Trainer Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    ChangJiang, L.

    2016-12-01

    With the improvement of China's urbanization, to ensure people survive the earthquake needs scientific routine emergency evacuation drills. Drawing on cellular automaton, shortest path algorithm and collision avoidance, we designed a model of earthquake emergency evacuation drill for school scenes. Based on this model, we made simulation software for earthquake emergency evacuation drill. The software is able to perform the simulation of earthquake emergency evacuation drill by building spatial structural model and selecting the information of people's location grounds on actual conditions of constructions. Based on the data of simulation, we can operate drilling in the same building. RFID technology could be used here for drill data collection which read personal information and send it to the evacuation simulation software via WIFI. Then the simulation software would contrast simulative data with the information of actual evacuation process, such as evacuation time, evacuation path, congestion nodes and so on. In the end, it would provide a contrastive analysis report to report assessment result and optimum proposal. We hope the earthquake emergency evacuation drill software and trainer can provide overall process disposal concept for earthquake emergency evacuation drill in assembly occupancies. The trainer can make the earthquake emergency evacuation more orderly, efficient, reasonable and scientific to fulfill the increase in coping capacity of urban hazard.

  3. Dual effects of guide-based guidance on pedestrian evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng

    2017-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of guide-based guidance on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility via the simulations based on an extended social force model. The results show that the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual, and related to the neighbor density within the visual field. On the one hand, in many cases, the effects of guides are positive, particularly when the neighbor density within the visual field is moderate; in this case, a few guides can already assist the evacuation effectively and efficiently. However, when the neighbor density within the visual field is particularly small or large, the effects of guides may be adverse and make the evacuation time longer. Our results not only provide a new insight into the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility, but also give some practical suggestions as to how to assign guides to assist the evacuation under different evacuation conditions.

  4. Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Naser, Arab

    2012-01-01

    Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning. This book also: Comprehensively discusses the application of mathematical models for evacuation and intelligent transportation modeling Covers advanced methodologies in evacuation modeling and planning Discusses principles a...

  5. Evacuation of Bed-bound Patients-STEPS Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Anne; Dederichs, Anne Simone

    2016-01-01

    Fires in hospitals occur, and evacuation of bed-bound patients might be necessary in case of emergency. The current study concerns the evacuation of bed-bound patients from a fire section in a hospital using hospital porters. The simulations are performed using the STEPS program. The aim...... of the study is to investigate the evacuation time of bed-bound hospital patients using different walking speeds from the literature, and the influence of the number of hospital porters on the total evacuation times of bed-bound patients. Different scenarios were carried out with varying staff......-to-patient ratios that simulate the horizontal evacuation of 40 bed-bound patients into a different fire section. It was found that the staff-to-patient-ratio affects the total evacuation times. However, the total evacuation times do not decrease linearly and a saturation effect is seen at a staff-to-patient ratio...

  6. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nick Rohrbaugh

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Pet ownership has historically been one of the biggest risk factors for evacuation failure prior to natural disasters. The forced abandonment of pets during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 made national headlines and led to the passage of the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (PETS, 2006 which mandated local authorities to plan for companion animal evacuation. Hurricane Irene hit the East Coast of the United States in 2011, providing an excellent opportunity to examine the impact of the PETS legislation on frequency and ease of evacuation among pet owners and non-pet owners. Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones completed questionnaires assessing their experiences during the hurricane and symptoms of depression, PTSD, dissociative experiences, and acute stress. Pet ownership was not found to be a statistical risk factor for evacuation failure. However, many pet owners who failed to evacuate continue to cite pet related reasons.

  7. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Melissa G; Bogue, Kelsey; Rohrbaugh, Nick

    2012-09-28

    Pet ownership has historically been one of the biggest risk factors for evacuation failure prior to natural disasters. The forced abandonment of pets during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 made national headlines and led to the passage of the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (PETS, 2006) which mandated local authorities to plan for companion animal evacuation. Hurricane Irene hit the East Coast of the United States in 2011, providing an excellent opportunity to examine the impact of the PETS legislation on frequency and ease of evacuation among pet owners and non-pet owners. Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones completed questionnaires assessing their experiences during the hurricane and symptoms of depression, PTSD, dissociative experiences, and acute stress. Pet ownership was not found to be a statistical risk factor for evacuation failure. However, many pet owners who failed to evacuate continue to cite pet related reasons.

  8. Evacuation behavior and Three Mile Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutter, S; Barnes, K

    1982-06-01

    The responses of the residents to the nuclear power plant arcident at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania illustrate the factors influencing pre-impact coping responses of populations exposed to technological hazards. Confusion itnd ambiguous information influenced both the decision to evaluate and to remain in place. Proximity to the facility, stage in life cycle and the actions of friends and neighbors influenced the decision to evacuate.

  9. Empirical Modeling of Planetary Boundary Layer Dynamics Under Multiple Precipitation Scenarios Using a Two-Layer Soil Moisture Approach: An Example From a Semiarid Shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Mejia, Zulia Mayari; Papuga, Shirley A.

    2017-11-01

    In semiarid regions, where water resources are limited and precipitation dynamics are changing, understanding land surface-atmosphere interactions that regulate the coupled soil moisture-precipitation system is key for resource management and planning. We present a modeling approach to study soil moisture and albedo controls on planetary boundary layer height (PBLh). We used Santa Rita Creosote Ameriflux and Tucson Airport atmospheric sounding data to generate empirical relationships between soil moisture, albedo, and PBLh. Empirical relationships showed that ˜50% of the variation in PBLh can be explained by soil moisture and albedo with additional knowledge gained by dividing the soil profile into two layers. Therefore, we coupled these empirical relationships with soil moisture estimated using a two-layer bucket approach to model PBLh under six precipitation scenarios. Overall we observed that decreases in precipitation tend to limit the recovery of the PBL at the end of the wet season. However, increases in winter precipitation despite decreases in summer precipitation may provide opportunities for positive feedbacks that may further generate more winter precipitation. Our results highlight that the response of soil moisture, albedo, and the PBLh will depend not only on changes in annual precipitation, but also on the frequency and intensity of this change. We argue that because albedo and soil moisture data are readily available at multiple temporal and spatial scales, developing empirical relationships that can be used in land surface-atmosphere applications have great potential for exploring the consequences of climate change.

  10. Graph and Analytical Models for Emergency Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erol Gelenbe

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Cyber-Physical-Human Systems (CPHS combine sensing, communication and control to obtain desirable outcomes in physical environments for human beings, such as buildings or vehicles. A particularly important application area is emergency management. While recent work on the design and optimisation of emergency management schemes has relied essentially on discrete event simulation, which is challenged by the substantial amount of programming or reprogramming of the simulation tools and by the scalability and the computing time needed to obtain useful performance estimates, this paper proposes an approach that offers fast estimates based on graph models and probability models. We show that graph models can offer insight into the critical areas in an emergency evacuation and that they can suggest locations where sensor systems are particularly important and may require hardening. On the other hand, we also show that analytical models based on queueing theory can provide useful estimates of evacuation times and for routing optimisation. The results are illustrated with regard to the evacuation of a real-life building.

  11. Nuclear criticality evacuation with telemonitoring and microprocessors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergus, R.W.; Moe, H.J. Sr.

    1979-01-01

    At Argonne National Laboratory, criticality alarms are required at widely separated locations to evacuate personnel in case of accident while emergency teams or maintenance personnel respond from a central location. The system functions have been divided in a similar manner. The alarm site hardware can independently detect a criticality and sound the evacuation signal while general monitoring and routine tests are handled by a communication link to a central monitoring station. The radiation detectors and evacuation sounders at each site are interconnected by a common two conductor cable in a unique telemonitoring format. This format allows both control and data information to be received or transmitted at any point on the cable which can be up to 3000 meters total length. The site microprocessor maintains a current data table, detects several faults, drives a printer, and communicates with the central telemonitoring station. The radiation detectors are made with plastic scintillators and photomultiplier tubes operated in a constant current mode with a 4 decade measurement range. The detectors also respond within microseconds to the criticality radiation burst. These characteristics can be tested with an internal light emitting diode either completely with a manual procedure or routinely with a system test initiated by the central monitoring station. Although the system was developed for a criticality alarm which requires reliable and redundant features, the basic techniques are useable for other monitoring and instrumentation applications

  12. Evacuation exercise at the CERN Kindergarten

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector. The fire brigade checked that the buil...

  13. From Ant Trails to Pedestrian Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Schadschneider

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the simulation of pedestrian dynamics inspired by the behaviour of ants in ant trails. Ants communicate by producing a pheromone that can be smelled by other ants. In this model, pedestrians produce a virtual pheromone that influences the motion of others. In this way all interactions are strictly local, and so even large crowds can be simulated very efficiently. Nevertheless, the model is able to reproduce the collective effects observed empirically, eg the formation of lanes in counterflow. As an application, we reproduce a surprising result found in experiments of evacuation from an aircraft.

  14. Management of evacuation in case of fire accidents in chemical industrial areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Pauwels, N.; Audenaert, A.; Ale, B.J.M.; Soudan, K.

    2007-01-01

    Trade-offs between economic and safety arguments exist in the operation of chemical installations, should knock-on calamities induced by fire accidents occur: a sudden installation shutdown might result in substantial economic losses, but may be needed to ensure safety. Due to the very rare nature of domino effect risks induced decision problems an adequate evacuation decision aid model to be used by plant safety management does, to the best of the authors' knowledge, not exist. This paper develops a tentative approach to calculate the economic gains and/or losses linked to the decision problem whether or not, and when, to evacuate chemical installation(s) threatened by possible domino effect risks. The proposed model is illustrated by a case-study based on empirical data

  15. Dual effects of guide-based guidance on pedestrian evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the effects of guide-based guidance on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility via the simulations based on an extended social force model. The results show that the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual, and related to the neighbor density within the visual field. On the one hand, in many cases, the effects of guides are positive, particularly when the neighbor density within the visual field is moderate; in this case, a few guides can already assist the evacuation effectively and efficiently. However, when the neighbor density within the visual field is particularly small or large, the effects of guides may be adverse and make the evacuation time longer. Our results not only provide a new insight into the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility, but also give some practical suggestions as to how to assign guides to assist the evacuation under different evacuation conditions. - Highlights: • Extended social force model is used to simulate guided pedestrian evacuation. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are related to neighbor density within visual field.

  16. Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

  17. Organizational Flexibility for Hypercompetitive Markets : Empirical Evidence of the Composition and Context Specificity of Dynamic Capabilities and Organization Design Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.P. van der Weerdt (Niels)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis research project, which builds on the conceptual work of Henk Volberda on the flexible firm, empirically investigates four aspects of organizational flexibility. Our analysis of data of over 1900 firms and over 3000 respondents shows (1) that several increasing levels of

  18. Assessment of total evacuation systems for tall buildings

    CERN Document Server

    Ronchi, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    This SpringerBrief focuses on the use of egress models to assess the optimal strategy for total evacuation in high-rise buildings. It investigates occupant relocation and evacuation strategies involving the exit stairs, elevators, sky bridges and combinations thereof. Chapters review existing information on this topic and describe case study simulations of a multi-component exit strategy. This review provides the architectural design, regulatory and research communities with a thorough understanding of the current and emerging evacuation procedures and possible future options. A model case study simulates seven possible strategies for the total evacuation of two identical twin towers linked with two sky-bridges at different heights. The authors present the layout of the building and the available egress components including both vertical and horizontal egress components, namely stairs, occupant evacuation elevators (OEEs), service elevators, transfer floors and sky-bridges. The evacuation strategies employ a ...

  19. A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

    2018-01-01

    Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

  20. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...... hydrogen, which is difficult and energy consuming to store and transport. The models include thermal equilibrium models of the individual components of the system. Models of the heating and cooling of the gas flows between components are also modeled and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System models...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...

  1. Simplified evacuation model for estimating mitigation of early population exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.

    1980-12-01

    The application of a simple evacuation model to the prediction of expected population exposures following acute releases of activity to the atmosphere is described. The evacuation model of Houston is coupled with a normalized Gaussian dispersion calculation to estimate the time integral of population exposure. The methodology described can be applied to specific sites to determine the expected reduction of population exposures due to evacuation

  2. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Liang-bin

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot, and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test, co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public. The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market ...

  3. Bulkhead Door – Critical Evacuation States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flizikowski Józef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is a preliminary to a modification concept of the sliding watertight bulkhead door used on ships and vessels. Hydraulic or electro-hydraulic drives used to move these doors require complicated and extended pressure installations with large amounts of hydraulic fluid. Well-known operational drawbacks of these installations include high level of noise and possibility of various leaks in the hydraulic system. Being the first in a series, the present article describes and analyses critical states which can take place during evacuation of people through openings in the watertight bulkhead doors on seagoing ships and vessels.

  4. APPROXIMATION OF THE TIME TO INITIATE THE EVACUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří POKORNÝ

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the basic prerequisites for securing the safety of people at large group events is to ensure their evacuation in case of emergencies. This article deals with the approximations of time to initiate the evacuation of persons in case of a fire at large group events organized in outdoor spaces. The solution is based on the principles of determining the period to initiate the evacuation of persons in terms of international ISO standards. Considering the specificities of the given outdoor space and possible related security measures, the article recommends the relevant sufficient amount of time to initiate an evacuation.

  5. Evacuation routes performances and fire safety of buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laban Mirjana Đ.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residential buildings, public and business facilities with large number of occupants are particularly exposed to the risk of event with catastrophic consequences, especially in case of fire. Evacuation routes must be separated fire compartments with surfaces made of non-combustible materials. Safe evacuation of building occupants in case of fire is a crucial requirement for the preservation of human life in building. In our engineering practice, calculation model is usually applied in order to determine the time required for evacuation (SRPS TP 21. However, evacuation simulation models are more present in research papers, contributing to better assessment of flow of evacuation in the real time. These models could provide an efficient way of testing the safety of a building in the face of fire and indicate critical points at the evacuation paths. Computer models enable the development and analysis of multiple various scenarios during a fire event, contributing to defining the measures for improving the safety of the building in case of fire. This paper analyses the fulfilment of technical requirements for the safe evacuation and proposes improvement measures based on a comparative analysis of the time required for occupants' evacuation from the building (Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy in Novi Sad, obtained by calculation model and by using evacuation simulation software.

  6. Study on rapid evacuation in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available More and more high rising buildings emerged in modern cities, but emergency evacuation of tall buildings has been a worldwide difficult problem. In this paper, a new evacuation device for high rising buildings in fire accident was proposed and studied. This device mainly consisted of special spiral slideway and shunt valve. People in this device could fast slide down to the first floor under gravity without any electric power and physical strength, which is suitable for various emergency evacuation including mobility-impaired persons. The plane simulation test has shown that human being in alternative clockwise and counterclockwise movement will not become dizzy. The evacuated people should wear protection pad, which can prevent slider from being injured by surface friction with the slide, and eliminate the friction coefficient difference caused by different clothes and slide surface. The calculation results show that the evacuation speed of the new device is much faster than traditional staircases. Moreover, such new evacuation device can also be used as a means of vertical transportation in high-rise buildings partly. People can take it from any floor to ground floor directly, which not only save time for waiting for the lifts but also save the power. The new evacuation system is of simple structure, easy to use, and suitable for evacuation and partly used as vertical downwards traffic, which shows light on solving world-wide difficulties on fast evacuation in high-rise buildings.

  7. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  8. A computer program for lattice-dynamical evaluation of Debye-Waller factors and thermodynamic functions for minerals, starting from empirical force fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilati, T.; Dermartin, F.; Gramaccioli, C.M.

    1993-01-01

    A wide-purpose computer program has been written (Fortran) for lattice dynamical evaluation of crystallographic and thermodynamic properties of solids, especially minerals or inorganic substances.The program essentially consists of a routine affording first and second derivatives of energy with respect to mass weighted coordinates, properly modulated by a wave vector algorithm, so that diagonalization can immediately follow and arrive at frequencies, density of states, and eventually to thermodynamic functions and Debye-Waller parameters thorough an automatic Brillouin-zone sampling procedure. The input consists of crystallographic data (unit-cell parameters, space group symmetry operations, atomic coordinates), plus atomic charge and empirical parameters, such as force constants or non-bonded atom-atom interaction energy functions in almost any form. It is also possible to obtain the structure corresponding to the energy minimum, or even to work with partial rigid bodies, in order to reduce the order of the dynamical matrices. The program provides for automatic symmetry labelling of the vibrational modes, in order to compare them with the experimental data; there is possibility of improving the empirical functions through a minimization routine. Examples of application and transferability of force fields to a series of minerals are provided. (author)

  9. Evacuate or Shelter-in-place? The Role of Corporate Memory and Political Environment in Hospital-evacuation Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Karen A; Griffin, Anne R; Heslin, Kevin C; Kranke, Derrick; Dobalian, Aram

    2015-06-01

    Hospital-evacuation decisions are rarely straightforward in protracted advance-warning events. Previous work provides little insight into the decision-making process around evacuation. This study was conducted to identify factors that most heavily influenced the decisions to evacuate the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) New York Harbor Healthcare System's (NYHHS; New York USA) Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene in 2011 and before Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Semi-structured interviews with 11 senior leaders were conducted on the processes and factors that influenced the evacuation decisions prior to each event. The most influential factor in the decision to evacuate the Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene was New York City's (NYC's) hospital-evacuation mandate. As a federal facility, the Manhattan VA medical center (VAMC) was exempt from the city's order, but decision makers felt compelled to comply. In the case of Superstorm Sandy, corporate memory of a similar 1992 storm that crippled the Manhattan facility drove the decision to evacuate before the storm hit. Results suggest that hospital-evacuation decisions are confounded by political considerations and are influenced by past disaster experience. Greater shared situational awareness among at-risk hospitals, along with a more coordinated approach to evacuation decision making, could reduce pressure on hospitals to make these high-stakes decisions. Systematic mechanisms for collecting, documenting, and sharing lessons learned from past disasters are sorely needed at the institutional, local, and national levels.

  10. Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastián; Kuperman, Marcelo N.

    2016-08-01

    Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.

  11. Inglorious Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khair, Tabish

    2017-01-01

    Review of 'Inglorious Empire: What the British did to India' by Shashi Tharoor, London, Hurst Publishers, 2017, 296 pp., £20.00......Review of 'Inglorious Empire: What the British did to India' by Shashi Tharoor, London, Hurst Publishers, 2017, 296 pp., £20.00...

  12. Calculation of bulk etch rate’s semi-empirical equation for polymer track membranes in stationary and dynamic modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mashentseva

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the most urgent and extremely social problems in environmental safeties area in Kazakhstan is providing the population of all regions of the country with quality drinking water. Development of filter elements based on nuclear track-etch membranes may be considered as one of best solutions this problem. The values of bulk etch rate and activation energy were calculated in view the effect of temperature, alkaline solution concentration as well as stirring effect. The semi-empirical equation of the bulk etch rate for PET track membranes was calculated. As a result of theoretical and experimental studies a semi-empirical equation of the bulk etch rate VB=3.4∙1012∙C2.07∙exp(-0.825/kT for 12 microns PET film, irradiated by ions 84Kr15+ (energy of 1.75 MeV/nucleon at the heavy ion accelerator DC-60 in Astana branch of the INP NNC RK, was obtained. 

  13. Is ward evacuation for uncomplicated incomplete abortion under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To compare evacuation under systemic analgesia (fentanyl and midazolam) in a treatment room (ward group) with evacuation under general anaesthesia in theatre. Design. A prospective randomised clinical trial. Setting. A tertiary medical centre serving a black urban population. Subjects. One hundred and ...

  14. 14 CFR 121.570 - Airplane evacuation capability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airplane evacuation capability. 121.570... REQUIREMENTS: DOMESTIC, FLAG, AND SUPPLEMENTAL OPERATIONS Flight Operations § 121.570 Airplane evacuation capability. (a) No person may cause an airplane carrying passengers to be moved on the surface, take off, or...

  15. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  16. Theoretical and experimental investigations of Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon

    1999-01-01

    Four different marketed Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors have been investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The advantages of the investigated solar collectors compared to normal flat plate collectors were elucidated.......Four different marketed Chinese evacuated tubular solar collectors have been investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The advantages of the investigated solar collectors compared to normal flat plate collectors were elucidated....

  17. A Long Term Test of Differently Designed Evacuated Tubular Collectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Jianhua; Dragsted, Janne; Furbo, Simon

    2008-01-01

    During three years seven differently designed evacuated tubular collectors (ETCs) utilizing solar radiation from all directions have been investigated experimentally. The evacuated tubular solar collectors investigated include one SLL all-glass ETC from Tshinghua Solar Co. Ltd, four heat pipe ETCs...

  18. 30 CFR 57.4361 - Underground evacuation drills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) Involve activation of the fire alarm system; and (3) Include evacuation of all persons from their work... NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH SAFETY AND HEALTH STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND METAL AND NONMETAL MINES Fire Prevention and Control Firefighting Procedures/alarms/drills § 57.4361 Underground evacuation drills. (a) At...

  19. Computer simulation-based framework for transportation evacuation in major trip generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Since emergencies including both natural disasters and man-made incidents, are happening more and more : frequently, evacuation, especially transportation evacuation, is becoming a hot research focus in recent years. : Currently, transportation evacu...

  20. Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Balcilar

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential diversification benefits of socially responsible investments for conventional stock portfolios by examining the risk spillovers and dynamic correlations between conventional and sustainability stock indexes from a number of regions. We observe significant unidirectional volatility transmissions from conventional to sustainable equities, suggesting that the criteria applied for socially responsible investments do not necessarily shield these securities from common market shocks. While significant dynamic correlations are observed between sustainable and conventional stocks, particularly in Europe, the analysis of both in- and out-of-sample dynamic portfolios suggests that supplementing conventional stock portfolios with sustainable counterparts improves the risk/return profile of stock portfolios in all regions. The findings overall suggest that sustainable investments can indeed provide diversification gains for conventional stock portfolios globally.

  1. Evacuation proctography - examination technique and method of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braunschweig, R.; Schott, U.; Starlinger, M.

    1993-01-01

    Evacuation proctography is the most important imaging technique to supplement findings of physical examination, manometry, and endoscopy in patients presenting with pathologies in anorectal morphology and function. Indications for evacuation proctography include obstructed defecation or incomplete evacuation, imaging of ileal pouches following excision of the rectum, and suspected anorectal fistulae. Evacuation proctography with thick barium sulfate is performed under fluoroscopy. Documentation of the study can either be done by single-shot X-rays, video recording, or imaging with a 100-mm spot-film camera. Evacuation proctography shows morphologic changes such as spastic pelvic floor, rectocele, enterocele, intussusception and anal prolapse. Measurements can be performed to obtain the anorectal angle, location and mobility of the pelvic floor, and size as well as importance of a rectocele. Qualitative and quantitative data can only be interpreted along with clinical and manometric data. (orig.) [de

  2. Evacuation of People with Visual Impairments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Janne Gress

    an increased focus in the past decades enabling everyone to enter buildings but is not an insurance for egressibility. Representative evacuation data for vulnerable subpopulations, including elderly, children and people with disabilities, are lacking in literature. It is known that the fatality rate caused...... and with a special focus on blind and visually impaired people. An experimental program is designed to obtain data on walking speeds horizontally and descending stairs, interaction between participants and their interaction with the building environment. Experiments are conducted in different buildings including....... The interview study revealed that people with disabilities visit all kind of buildings. It is therefore not possible to neglect their presence in buildings while ensuring equal egress for all occupants. It is also found that building elements such as stairs, signage, doors e.t.c., which are essential elements...

  3. Dynamic Interaction: A Measurement Development and Empirical Evaluation of Knowledge Based Systems and Web 2.0 Decision Support Mashups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beemer, Brandon Alan

    2010-01-01

    The research presented in this dissertation focuses on the organizational and consumer need for knowledge based support in unstructured domains, by developing a measurement scale for dynamic interaction. Addressing this need is approached and evaluated from two different perspectives. The first approach is the development of Knowledge Based…

  4. An Alternative Evacuation Framework to Improve Protective-action Strategies Following a Nuclear Power Accident: The Adaptive Protective Action Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Gregory D.

    Within the U.S. current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping with geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the population evacuated. However, should policy makers decide that the benefits of APAZs outweigh the costs of implementation, APAZ adoption by U.S. regulatory agencies should be accompanied by a revision to the nuclear-power plant emergency planning basis, and revisions to local nuclear power emergency response planning areas.

  5. An HIV epidemic model based on viral load dynamics: value in assessing empirical trends in HIV virulence and community viral load.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua T Herbeck

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence.

  6. A Semi-Empirical Multi-Scale Dynamic Monte Carlo Model of Organic Photovoltaic Performance in RIR-MAPLE Bulk Heterojunction Films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiff-Roberts, Adrienne; Atewologun, Ayomide

    A semi-empirical method for investigating the performance of OPVs in resonant infrared, matrix-assisted pulsed laser evaporation (RIR-MAPLE) films is explored. Emulsion-based RIR-MAPLE offers a unique experimental backdrop for investigating trends through simulation and gaining a better understanding of how different thin film characteristics impact OPV device performance. A novel multi-scale formulation of the Dynamic Monte Carlo (DMC) model is developed based on observable morphology features. Specifically, using confocal microscopy, we observe the presence of micro-scale regimes of pure materials and nano-scale regions of the composite blend. This enables us to assign weighted percentages to DMC implementations on two different scales: the microscale and nanoscale regions. In addition to this, we use input simulation parameters acquired by characterization of as-deposited films. The semi-empirical multi-scale model presented serves as a unique simulation opportunity for exploring different properties of RIR-MAPLE deposited OPVs, their effects on OPV performance and potential design routes for improving device efficiencies. This work was supported, in part, by the Office of Naval Research under Grant N00014-10-1-0481 and the NSF Triangle MRSEC on Soft Matter.

  7. Research on Evacuation Based on Social Force Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.; Deng, Z.; Li, W.; Lin, J.

    2017-09-01

    Crowded centers always cause personnel casualties in evacuation operations. Stampede events often occur by hit, squeeze and crush due to panic. It is of vital important to alleviate such situation. With the deepening of personnel evacuation research, more and more researchers are committed to study individual behaviors and self-organization phenomenon in evacuation process. The study mainly includes: 1, enrich the social force model from different facets such as visual, psychological, external force to descript more realistic evacuation; 2, research on causes and effects of self - organization phenomenon. In this paper, we focus on disorder motion that occurs in the crowded indoor publics, especially the narrow channel and safety exits and other special arteries. We put forward the improved social force model to depict pedestrians' behaviors, an orderly speed-stratification evacuation method to solve disorder problem, and shape-changed export to alleviate congestion. The result of this work shows an improvement of evacuation efficiency by 19.5 %. Guiding pedestrians' direction to slow down the influence of social forces has a guidance function in improving the efficiency of indoor emergency evacuation.

  8. Empirical Study of How Traffic Intensity Detector Parameters Influence Dynamic Street Lighting Energy Consumption: A Case Study in Krakow, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Wojnicki

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The deployment of dynamic street lighting, which adjusts lighting levels to fulfill particular needs, leads to energy savings. These savings contribute to the overall lighting infrastructure maintenance cost. Yet another contribution is the cost of traffic intensity data. The data is read directly from sensor systems or intelligent transportation systems (ITSs. The more frequent the readings are, the more costly they become, because of hardware capabilities, data transfer and software license costs, among others. The paper investigates a relationship between the frequency of readings, in particular the averaging window size and step, and achieved energy savings. It is based on a simulation, taking into account a representative part of a city and traffic intensity data, which span over a period of one year. While the energy consumption reduction is simulated, all data, including each luminaire power setting, induction loop locations and street characteristics, come from a representative sample of the city of Krakow, Poland. Controlling the power settings complies with the lighting standard CEN/TR 13201. Analysis of the outcomes indicates that the shorter the window size or step are, the more energy saving that is available. In particular, for the previous standard CEN/TR 13201 2004, having the window size and step at 15 min results in 26.75% of energy saving, while reducing these values to 6 min provides 27%. Savings are more profound for the current standard (CEN/TR 13201 2014, assuming a 15 min size and step results in 47.43%, while having a 6 min size and step provides 47.69%. The results can serve as a guideline for identifying the economic viability of dynamic lighting control systems. Additionally, it can be observed that the current lighting standard provides far greater potential for dynamic control then the previous standard.

  9. Foreign institutional investments in India: An empirical analysis of dynamic interactions with stock market return and volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaishali S. Dhingra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions of foreign institutional investments with market returns and market volatility in India using both static and dynamic models based on daily data. The findings of both models show foreign investors as positive feedback traders while investing in the Indian market, and as negative feedback traders during their withdrawal. Using the impulse response functions based on vector autoregression, we find strong evidence that foreign institutional investments destabilise the market, particularly with selling activities, as they significantly increase the volatility.

  10. Environmental dynamic, business strategy, and financial performance: An empirical study of Indonesian property and real estate industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Firm’s strategic orientation involves synchronizing environmental dynamics, corporate strategy and capital structure in order to achieve firm performance targets. The co-alignment model used successfully in the hospitality industry might be used in a wider context as a framework in explain- ing these relationships simultaneously. Using the data of public firms in Indonesia during the pe- riod of 1996-2010, we found that co-alignment model can be implemented in property and real estate industry as well as in hospitality industry.

  11. NEW GROWTH PLATFORM FRAMEWORK FOR SWISS ACUTE HOSPITALS - AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Alimpic

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Swiss health care is confronted with fundamental changes. On the one hand, there are increasing costs in patient treatments, caused by innovative technology with new high-capacity medical devices, and a lack of effectiveness and efficiency in the organisation of a hospital. On the other hand, hospitals do have decreasing revenues with the introduction of the new patient classification and tariff system DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups by 2012. For every DRG, hospitals will receive a fixed price, separate from the actual costs of the patient treatment. In this paper it was explored the case of 13 successful Swiss private acute hospitals which are also confronted with these pressures to reduce their costs of patient treatment and therefore to optimise their processes of care. This research focuses on dynamic capabilitie of the hospitals. Although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence, they have significant ‘best practise’ across firms (Eisenhardt and Martin, 2000. The research is started with the evaluation of new trends, key customers’ needs, and capabilities, with questionnaires for attending physicians and hospital managers. The NGP approach gives hospital managers the enough crucial information for a strategy formulation in fundamental changing environments, which is the key contribution of this manuscript.

  12. Progressive Time-Weighted Dynamic Energy Efficiency, Energy Decoupling Rate, and Decarbonization: An Empirical Study on G7 and BRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Jung Tu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Energy is a critical factor of economic growth, but the overuse of it results in global warming and climate change. Hence, energy efficiency improvement can help mitigate climate change and prevent economic losses or even ecological extinction. The data envelopment analysis (DEA approach has been extensively applied for energy efficiency estimation, but past studies of this estimation employ a static mode that does not consider consecutive periods and the carry-over effect. This study estimates energy efficiency under a weight-restricted dynamic DEA (WrD-DEA model, creates a weight-restricted dynamic energy efficiency (WrD-EE indicator, and discusses issues concerning the energy decoupling rate and decarbonization. We utilize members in the Group of Seven (G7 and BRICS (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa for our experimental observations. The main results herein are: (1 BRICS has larger room for improvement to achieve the standard ratio of the energy decoupling rate than the G7; (2 the G7 and BRICS do not converge to decarbonization; and (3 BRICS exhibits more rapid improvement on energy efficiency than the G7.

  13. Using historical accounts of harpsichord touch to empirically investigate the production and perception of dynamics on the 1788 Taskin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacRitchie, Jennifer; Nuti, Giulia

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the extent of production and perception of dynamic differences on a French historical harpsichord, extensively revised in 1788 by Pascal Taskin. A historical review reports on the descriptions of two different types of touch found in treatises of the 18th century. These two touches (loud/struck and soft/pressed) were used to perform single tones on the lower, upper, peau de buffle (PDB) registers (the last of which Taskin is credited with having invented) and the coupled 8-foot registers to investigate differences in dynamics. Acoustic measurements show varied differences of up to 11 dB for the two types of touch over different pitches in each register. The strongest difference is measured in the first harmonic of note F2 on the PDB. A listening experiment was conducted to test whether these differences are perceivable. Participants performed a discrimination task using pairs of single tones. Participants were able to perform significantly better than chance in correctly identifying whether pairs of single tones were same or different with respect to loudness [t(24) = 12.01, p < 0.001]. Accuracies were influenced by pitch and register, the PDB providing the strongest accuracies over the four registers tested.

  14. Using historical accounts of harpsichord touch to empirically investigate the production and perception of dynamics on the 1788 Taskin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer eMacritchie

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the extent of production and perception of dynamic differences on a French historical harpsichord, extensively revised in 1788 by Pascal Taskin. A historical review reports on the descriptions of two different types of touch found in treatises of the eighteenth century. These two touches (loud/struck and soft/pressed were used to perform single tones on the lower, upper, peau de buffle registers (the last of which Taskin is credited with having invented and the coupled 8-foot registers to investigate differences in dynamics. Acoustic measurements show varied differences of up to 11dB for the two types of touch over different pitches in each register. The strongest difference is measured in the first harmonic of note F2 on the peau de buffle. A listening experiment was conducted to test whether these differences are perceivable. Participants performed a discrimination task using pairs of single tones. Participants were able to perform significantly better than chance in correctly identifying whether pairs of single tones were same or different with respect to loudness (t (24 = 12.01, p < .001. Accuracies were influenced by pitch and register, the peau de buffle providing the strongest accuracies over the four registers tested.

  15. Host and adsorbate dynamics in silicates with flexible frameworks: Empirical force field simulation of water in silicalite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordat, Patrice; Cazade, Pierre-André; Baraille, Isabelle; Brown, Ross

    2010-03-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations are performed on the pure silica zeolite silicalite (MFI framework code), maintaining via a new force field both framework flexibility and realistic account of electrostatic interactions with adsorbed water. The force field is similar to the well-known "BKS" model [B. W. H. van Beest et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 64, 1955 (1990)], but with reduced partial atomic charges and reoptimized covalent bond potential wells. The present force field reproduces the monoclinic to orthorhombic transition of silicalite. The force field correctly represents the hydrophobicity of pure silica silicalite, both the adsorption energy, and the molecular diffusion constants of water. Two types of adsorption, specific and weak unspecific, are predicted on the channel walls and at the channel intersection. We discuss molecular diffusion of water in silicalite, deducing a barrier to crossing between the straight and the zigzag channels. Analysis of the thermal motion shows that at room temperature, framework oxygen atoms incurring into the zeolite channels significantly influence the dynamics of adsorbed water.

  16. Endoscopic burr hole evacuation of an acute subdural hematoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codd, Patrick J; Venteicher, Andrew S; Agarwalla, Pankaj K; Kahle, Kristopher T; Jho, David H

    2013-12-01

    Acute subdural hematoma evacuations frequently necessitate large craniotomies with extended operative times and high relative blood loss, which can lead to additional morbidity for the patient. While endoscopic minimally invasive approaches to chronic subdural collections have been successfully demonstrated, this technique has not previously been applied to acute subdural hematomas. The authors report their experience with an 87-year-old patient presenting with a large acute right-sided subdural hematoma successfully evacuated via an endoscopic minimally invasive technique. The operative approach is outlined, and the literature on endoscopic subdural collection evacuation reviewed. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Learning Potential Is Related to the Dynamics of Scaffolding: : An Empirical Illustration of the Scaffolding Dynamics of 5-Year-Olds and Their Teacher.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, A.; van der Aalsvoort, G.M.; van Geert, Paul; Voet, Silke

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new definition of learning potential as an emergent phenomenon. It emerges in the process of creating a unique scaffolding situation through the realtime interaction between teacher and child. We provide a model for analyzing the behavioral sequences within these scaffolding dynamics

  18. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  19. Empirical likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Owen, Art B

    2001-01-01

    Empirical likelihood provides inferences whose validity does not depend on specifying a parametric model for the data. Because it uses a likelihood, the method has certain inherent advantages over resampling methods: it uses the data to determine the shape of the confidence regions, and it makes it easy to combined data from multiple sources. It also facilitates incorporating side information, and it simplifies accounting for censored, truncated, or biased sampling.One of the first books published on the subject, Empirical Likelihood offers an in-depth treatment of this method for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses. The author applies empirical likelihood to a range of problems, from those as simple as setting a confidence region for a univariate mean under IID sampling, to problems defined through smooth functions of means, regression models, generalized linear models, estimating equations, or kernel smooths, and to sampling with non-identically distributed data. Abundant figures offer vi...

  20. BIM Based Virtual Environment for Fire Emergency Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent building emergency management research has highlighted the need for the effective utilization of dynamically changing building information. BIM (building information modelling can play a significant role in this process due to its comprehensive and standardized data format and integrated process. This paper introduces a BIM based virtual environment supported by virtual reality (VR and a serious game engine to address several key issues for building emergency management, for example, timely two-way information updating and better emergency awareness training. The focus of this paper lies on how to utilize BIM as a comprehensive building information provider to work with virtual reality technologies to build an adaptable immersive serious game environment to provide real-time fire evacuation guidance. The innovation lies on the seamless integration between BIM and a serious game based virtual reality (VR environment aiming at practical problem solving by leveraging state-of-the-art computing technologies. The system has been tested for its robustness and functionality against the development requirements, and the results showed promising potential to support more effective emergency management.

  1. BIM based virtual environment for fire emergency evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Li, Haijiang; Rezgui, Yacine; Bradley, Alex; Ong, Hoang N

    2014-01-01

    Recent building emergency management research has highlighted the need for the effective utilization of dynamically changing building information. BIM (building information modelling) can play a significant role in this process due to its comprehensive and standardized data format and integrated process. This paper introduces a BIM based virtual environment supported by virtual reality (VR) and a serious game engine to address several key issues for building emergency management, for example, timely two-way information updating and better emergency awareness training. The focus of this paper lies on how to utilize BIM as a comprehensive building information provider to work with virtual reality technologies to build an adaptable immersive serious game environment to provide real-time fire evacuation guidance. The innovation lies on the seamless integration between BIM and a serious game based virtual reality (VR) environment aiming at practical problem solving by leveraging state-of-the-art computing technologies. The system has been tested for its robustness and functionality against the development requirements, and the results showed promising potential to support more effective emergency management.

  2. Ultrasensitive leak detection during ultrahigh vacuum evacuation by quadrupole mass spectrometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Xu; Huang Tianbin; Wang Ligong; Jin Qiji; Cha Liangzhen

    2006-01-01

    One must do ultrasensitive leak detection during ultrahigh-vacuum (UHV) evacuation, especially just before the device is sealed off from the vacuum system, to guarantee the longevity of the sealed high-vacuum or even UHV devices with small volume. A quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) with an UHV evacuation system can be used under accumulation mode to do the testing. Possible accumulate modes, as well as their advantages and shortcomings, are studied experimentally and discussed in this paper. We found that the opening action of the metal valve during accumulation mode always severely affects the height of the peak indicated by QMS and causes considerable errors. If we determine the leak rate by the peak area instead of the peak height, the situation is much improved. This method has proven quite useful in ensuring the tightness quality for complex sealed UHV devices with small volumes. Ultrasensitive leak detection has been carried out for such real evacuating devices, and a leak rate of 2x10 -14 Pa·m 3 /s was detected, which is far lower than its dynamic mode and the detection limit of the current advanced commercial leak detectors

  3. Evacuation zone changes in Belarussian wildlife populations following the Chernobyl nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plenin, A.E.

    1995-01-01

    Nine years of wildlife monitoring in the 30-km Chernobyl evacuation zone documented effects on faunal biodiversity at various levels of ecosystem integration, helping to focus future investigations needed to distinguish radioecological impacts from those caused by reduced human activity within this zone. Following the direct, aucte radiation effects on the fauna, some long-term stabilization appears in the radionuclide content of animal tissues. The recovery of faunal populations seems to depend more on the secondary effects of human evacuation than on direct radioecological impacts. Natural ecological succession may have accelerated due to the post-evacuation removal of human pressure on contaminated habitats. Cessation of human activity has most benefited the commercially hunted bird and mammal populations. Wild boar, elk, and roe deer populations also have increased to new levels of post-accident equilibrium whereas the recovery of other animal populations is less pronounced. While the number of some rare wildlife species increased in the affected communities, many of those wildlife populations normally associated with human activity have disappeared. In abandoned settlements, the succession of plant communities dominated by trees and shrubs now promotes recolonization by those wildlife communities that are more typical of woodland habitats undisturbed by human activity. These dynamic processes of transformation of wildlife communities offer a unique opportunity to study the development and conservation of wild animal biodiversity within the context of specific land use and landscape ecological changes

  4. Human responses to multiple sources of directional information in virtual crowd evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Nikolai W F; Kemloh Wagoum, Armel U; Codling, Edward A

    2014-02-06

    The evacuation of crowds from buildings or vehicles is one example that highlights the importance of understanding how individual-level interactions and decision-making combine and lead to the overall behaviour of crowds. In particular, to make evacuations safer, we need to understand how individuals make movement decisions in crowds. Here, we present an evacuation experiment with over 500 participants testing individual behaviour in an interactive virtual environment. Participants had to choose between different exit routes under the influence of three different types of directional information: static information (signs), dynamic information (movement of simulated crowd) and memorized information, as well as the combined effect of these different sources of directional information. In contrast to signs, crowd movement and memorized information did not have a significant effect on human exit route choice in isolation. However, when we combined the latter two treatments with additional directly conflicting sources of directional information, for example signs, they showed a clear effect by reducing the number of participants that followed the opposing directional information. This suggests that the signals participants observe more closely in isolation do not simply overrule alternative sources of directional information. Age and gender did not consistently explain differences in behaviour in our experiments.

  5. Coordination of IVI and transit signal priority on transit evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    During an emergency evacuation, execution time is always critical to the evacuees who are : transit dependent. Transit Signal Priority (TSP) can speed up the transit services by prioritizing : the approaching bus at a signalized intersection. With th...

  6. Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1995-01-01

    ... evacuation decision-making. To accomplish this, the study provides information on the extent and severity of potential flooding from hurricanes, the associated vulnerable population, capacities of existing public shelters...

  7. Modelling gastric evacuation in gadoids feeding on crustaceans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner; Chabot, Denis; Couturier, C. S.

    2016-01-01

    A mechanistic, prey surface-dependent model was expanded to describe the course and rate of gastric evacuation in predatory fishes feeding on crustacean prey with robust exoskeletons. This was accomplished by adding a layer of higher resistance to the digestive processes outside the inner softer...... parts of a prey cylinder abstraction and splitting up the prey evacuation into two stages: an initial stage where the exoskeleton is cracked and a second where the prey remains are digested and evacuated. The model was parameterized for crustaceans with different levels of armour fed to Atlantic cod...... and Chionoecetes opilio. In accordance with the apparent intraspecific isometric relationship between exoskeleton mass and total body mass, the model described stage duration and rate of evacuation of the crustacean prey independently of meal and prey sizes. The duration of the first stage increased (0-33 h...

  8. Teaching case studies on emergency evacuation : final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Through the development of four Harvard Kennedy School case studies, this project explored the policy and institutional dimensions of emergency evacuation planning and implementation in two major metropolitan areas Houston and New Orleans. By pro...

  9. Vesicovaginal fistula complicating uterine evacuation: a case report ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vesicovaginal fistula complicating uterine evacuation: a case report. MA Ijaiya, AP Aboyeji, GA Fawole, AAG Jimoh, OO Alabi, AO Olarinoye, OL Akintade, OK Ogah, DNC Nwachukwu, OA Alabi, SA Esuga, ZB Ijaiya ...

  10. Analysis of community tsunami evacuation time: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunarto, Y.; Sari, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Tsunami in Indonesia is defined as local tsunami due to its occurrences which are within a distance of 200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. A local tsunami can be caused by an earthquake, landslide, or volcanic eruption. Tsunami arrival time in Indonesia is generally between 10-60 minutes. As the estimated time of the tsunami waves to reach the coast is 30 minutes after the earthquake, the community should go to the vertical or horizontal evacuation in less than 30 minutes. In an evacuation, the city frequently does the evacuation after obtaining official directions from the authorities. Otherwise, they perform an independent evacuation without correct instructions from the authorities. Both of these ways have several strengths and limitations. This study analyzes these methods regarding time as well as the number of people expected to be saved.

  11. Solar Heating Systems with Evacuated Tubular Solar Collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon

    1998-01-01

    Recently different designed evacuated tubular solar collectors were introduced on the market by different Chinese companies. In the present study, investigations on the performance of four different Chinese evacuated tubular collectors and of solar heating systems using these collectors were...... carried out, employing both laboratory test and theoretical calculations. The collectors were tested in a small solar domestic hot water (SDHW) system in a laboratory test facility under realistic conditions. The yearly thermal performance of solar heating systems with these evacuated tubular collectors......, as well as with normal flat-plate collectors was calculated under Danish weather conditions. It is found that, for small SDHW systems with a combi tank design, an increase of 25% -55% net utilized solar energy can be achieved by using these evacuated tubular collectors instead of normal flat...

  12. Multi-hazard evacuation route and shelter planning for buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    A bi-level, two-stage, binary stochastic program with equilibrium constraints, and three variants, are presented that : support the planning and design of shelters and exits, along with hallway fortification strategies and associated : evacuation pat...

  13. Dynamics of Reverse Salience as Technological Performance Gap: An Empirical Study of the Personal Computer Technology System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozgur Dedehayir

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of technological systems is hindered by systemic components, referred to as reverse salients, which fail to deliver the necessary level of technological performance thereby inhibiting the performance delivery of the system as a whole. This paper develops a performance gap measure of reverse salience and applies this measurement in the study of the PC (personal computer technological system, focusing on the evolutions of firstly the CPU (central processing unit and PC game sub-systems, and secondly the GPU (graphics processing unit and PC game sub-systems. The measurement of the temporal behavior of reverse salience indicates that the PC game sub-system is the reverse salient, continuously trailing behind the technological performance of the CPU and GPU sub-systems from 1996 through 2006. The technological performance of the PC game sub-system as a reverse salient trails that of the CPU sub-system by up to 2300 MHz with a gradually decreasing performance disparity in recent years. In contrast, the dynamics of the PC game sub-system as a reverse salient trails the GPU sub-system with an ever increasing performance gap throughout the timeframe of analysis. In addition, we further discuss the research and managerial implications of our findings.

  14. An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Lan-Cui

    2008-01-01

    The world's future oil price is affected by many factors. The challenge, therefore, is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve. This paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve. Using this model, we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007-2010 and 2011-2020. Our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and, if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage, China should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level. The optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price; and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year. (author)

  15. Environmental dynamic, business strategy, and financial performance: An empirical study of Indonesian property and real estate industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Firm’s strategic orientation involves synchronizing environmental dynamics, corporate strategy and capital structure in order to achieve firm performance targets. The co-alignment model used successfully in the hospitality industry might be used in a wider context as a framework in explaining these relationships simultaneously. Using the data of public firms in Indonesia during the period of 1996-2010, we found that co-alignment model can be implemented in property and real estate industry as well as in hospitality industry. Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  16. Environmental efficiency and labour productivity. Trade-off or joint dynamics? A theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from Italy using NAMEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzanti, Massimiliano; Zoboli, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we test an adapted EKC hypothesis to verify the relationship between 'environmental efficiency' (namely emissions per unit of value added) and labour productivity (value added per employee). We exploit NAMEA data on Italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991-2001. We employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results. On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation, firm performances and environmental externalities, we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity - a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity - which departs from the conventional mainstream view. The hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance, which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation. We find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency. Labour productivity dynamics, then, seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process. Taking a disaggregate sector perspective, we show that the macro-aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non-homogenous way across pollutants. Services tend always to show a 'complementary' relationship, while industry seems to be associated with inverted U-shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides. This is in line with our expectations. In any case, EKC shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial and structural change, and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by referring to impure public goods arguments

  17. Study of Evacuation Behavior of Coastal Gulf of Mexico Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharjee, Sanjoy; Petrolia, Daniel R.; Hanson, Terrill R.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the link between hurricane characteristics, demographics of the Coastal Gulf of Mexico residents, including their household location, and their respective evacuation behavior. Our study is significantly different from the previously made studies on hurricane evacuation behavior in two ways. At first, the research data is collected through recording responses to a series of hypothetical situations which are quite identical to the set of information that people are...

  18. Records Review of Musculoskeletal Injuries in Aeromedical Evacuation Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-21

    Article 3. DATES COVERED (From – To) Jan 2013 – Dec 2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Records Review of Musculoskeletal Injuries in Aeromedical Evacuation...aeromedical evacuation, providers, ergonomics Published in Am J Prev Med, 2015; 48(4):365-371 From the D 711th Hum Medicine; th Peerless Tec Dayton, Ohi...designed for AE, but rather retrofit with equipment and fixtures to successfully carry out the mission, ergonomic challenges are likely to arise

  19. 3D Building Evacuation Route Modelling and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, W.; Armenakis, C.

    2014-11-01

    The most common building evacuation approach currently applied is to have evacuation routes planned prior to these emergency events. These routes are usually the shortest and most practical path from each building room to the closest exit. The problem with this approach is that it is not adaptive. It is not responsively configurable relative to the type, intensity, or location of the emergency risk. Moreover, it does not provide any information to the affected persons or to the emergency responders while not allowing for the review of simulated hazard scenarios and alternative evacuation routes. In this paper we address two main tasks. The first is the modelling of the spatial risk caused by a hazardous event leading to choosing the optimal evacuation route for a set of options. The second is to generate a 3D visual representation of the model output. A multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach is used to model the risk aiming at finding the optimal evacuation route. This is achieved by using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) on the criteria describing the different alternative evacuation routes. The best route is then chosen to be the alternative with the least cost. The 3D visual representation of the model displays the building, the surrounding environment, the evacuee's location, the hazard location, the risk areas and the optimal evacuation pathway to the target safety location. The work has been performed using ESRI's ArcGIS. Using the developed models, the user can input the location of the hazard and the location of the evacuee. The system then determines the optimum evacuation route and displays it in 3D.

  20. Evacuation decision-making at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeigler, D.J.; Johnson, J.H. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    During the emergency at the Three Mile Island generating station in the United States, evacuation became a common adaptive response among the local population. The planning for nuclear emergencies in the US has proceeded as if there were no significant differences between nuclear and other types of disasters requiring evacuation. In the United Kingdom, emergency planning for a new generation of pressurized water reactors, about which there is legitimate safety concern, has been influenced not at all by the experience with the Three Mile Island PWR in 1979. The TMI accident has been the US's most serious experience with a nuclear plant accident and therefore is an appropriate analogy for predicting the evacuation response to future nuclear emergencies. In this light, the authors accept the need to develop models that will enable them to predict the magnitude of the evacuation shadow phenomenon around other nuclear power sites and estimate its impact on our plans to remove the threatened population from the hazard zone in the minimum amount of time. Rather than depend on education and information control to stifle evacuation response, the authors believe that evacuation plans need to build on people's natural behavioural inclinations to protect themselves in response to the nuclear hazard

  1. Records review of musculoskeletal injuries in aeromedical evacuation personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serres, Jennifer L; Fouts, Brittany L; Dukes, Susan F; Maupin, Genny M; Wade, Molly E

    2015-04-01

    Aeromedical evacuation providers care for patients during air transport. By applying standard medical practices, oftentimes developed for ground care, these practitioners perform their mission duties under additional physical stress in this unique medical environment. Awkward postures and excessive forces are common occurrences among personnel operating in this domain. Additionally, anecdotal reports highlight the risk of developing musculoskeletal injuries for these providers. Currently, there is limited research focusing on musculoskeletal injuries in aeromedical evacuation providers. To determine the prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries and associated symptoms in aeromedical evacuation providers to understand the risk and burden of these injuries to military personnel. This study utilized a retrospective review of military medical records containing ICD-9 codes to investigate the incidence of musculoskeletal injuries within flight nurses and medical technicians compared to their non-flying counterparts from 2006 through 2011. Data were analyzed from 2013 through 2014. Although musculoskeletal injuries were identified within the test populations, results showed fewer injuries for aeromedical evacuation populations compared to non-aeromedical evacuation counterparts. One contributing factor may be a potential under-reporting of musculoskeletal injuries resulting from the fear of being placed on limited flying status. As flyers, aeromedical evacuation personnel must undergo yearly medical examinations and complete training courses that emphasize proper lifting techniques and physical requirements necessary for the safe and efficient transport of patients on various platforms. These additional requirements may create a healthy worker effect, likely contributing to lower musculoskeletal injuries. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E.

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  3. Complex multimaterial insulating frames for windows with evacuated glazing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yueping Fang; Eames, P.C.; Hyde, T.J. [University of Ulster, Newtonabbey (United Kingdom). Centre for Sustainable Technologies; Norton, B. [Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin (Ireland)

    2005-09-01

    The thermal performance of a complex multimaterial frame consisting of an exoskeleton framework and cavities filled with insulant materials enclosing an evacuated glazing was simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model and the results were validated experimentally using a guarded hot box calorimeter. The analysed 0.5 m by 0.5 m evacuated glazing consisted of two low-emittance film coated glass panes supported by an array of 0.32 mm diameter pillars spaced 25 mm apart, contiguously sealed by a 10 mm wide metal edge seal. Thermal performance of windows employing evacuated glazing set in various complex multimaterial frames were analysed in detail. Very good agreement was found between simulations and experimental measurements of surface temperatures of the evacuated glazing window system. The heat loss from a window with an evacuated glazing and a complex multimaterial frame is about 80% of that for a window comprised of an evacuated glazing set in a single material solid frame. (author)

  4. Complex multimaterial insulating frames for windows with evacuated glazing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yueping; Eames, Philip C.; Hyde, Trevor J. [Centre for Sustainable Technologies, School of the Built Environment, University of Ulster, Newtownabbey, N. Ireland BT37 0QB (United Kingdom); Norton, Brian [Dublin Institute of Technology, Aungier Street, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2005-09-01

    The thermal performance of a complex multimaterial frame consisting of an exoskeleton framework and cavities filled with insulant materials enclosing an evacuated glazing was simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model and the results were validated experimentally using a guarded hot box calorimeter. The analysed 0.5m by 0.5m evacuated glazing consisted of two low-emittance film coated glass panes supported by an array of 0.32mm diameter pillars spaced 25mm apart, contiguously sealed by a 10mm wide metal edge seal. Thermal performance of windows employing evacuated glazing set in various complex multimaterial frames were analysed in detail. Very good agreement was found between simulations and experimental measurements of surface temperatures of the evacuated glazing window system. The heat loss from a window with an evacuated glazing and a complex multimaterial frame is about 80% of that for a window comprised of an evacuated glazing set in a single material solid frame. (author)

  5. Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-10

    informally via Twitter and Facebook [88] (e.g., news of a 2011 earthquake in the Washington D.C. area propagated faster on social networks than the seismic...Phys Rev E 86. 38. Barahona M, Garcı́a C, Gloor P, Parraguez P (2012) Tracking the 2011 student- led movement in chile through social media use. In...negative events. Psychol Bull 134: 61–76. 52. Conneally T (2011) Virginia earthquake overloads cell networks from North Carolina to New York, Twitter

  6. Empirical Hamiltonians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peggs, S.; Talman, R.

    1987-01-01

    As proton accelerators get larger, and include more magnets, the conventional tracking programs which simulate them run slower. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method, still under development, in which element-by-element tracking around one turn is replaced by a single man, which can be processed far faster. It is assumed for this method that a conventional program exists which can perform faithful tracking in the lattice under study for some hundreds of turns, with all lattice parameters held constant. An empirical map is then generated by comparison with the tracking program. A procedure has been outlined for determining an empirical Hamiltonian, which can represent motion through many nonlinear kicks, by taking data from a conventional tracking program. Though derived by an approximate method this Hamiltonian is analytic in form and can be subjected to further analysis of varying degrees of mathematical rigor. Even though the empirical procedure has only been described in one transverse dimension, there is good reason to hope that it can be extended to include two transverse dimensions, so that it can become a more practical tool in realistic cases

  7. Social influence on evacuation behavior in real and virtual environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Kinateder

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Virtual reality (VR is a promising tool to study evacuation behavior as it allows experimentally controlled, safe simulation of otherwise dangerous situations. However, validation studies comparing evacuation behavior in real and virtual environments are still scarce. We compare the decision to evacuate in response to a fire alarm in matched physical and virtual environments. 150 participants were tested individually in a one-trial experiment in one of three conditions. In the Control condition, the fire alarm sounded while the participant performed a bogus perceptual matching task. In the Passive bystander condition, the participant performed the task together with a confederate who ignored the fire alarm. In the Active bystander condition, the confederate left the room when the fire alarm went off. Half of the participants in each condition experienced the scenario in the real laboratory, and the other half in a matched virtual environment with a virtual bystander, presented in a head-mounted display. The active bystander group was more likely to evacuate, and the passive bystander group less likely to evacuate, than the control group. This pattern of social influence was observed in both the real and virtual environments, although the overall response to the virtual alarm was reduced; positive influence was comparable, whereas negative influence was weaker in VR. We found no reliable gender effects for the participant or the bystander. These findings extend the bystander effect to the decision to evacuate, revealing a positive as well as the previous negative social influence. The results support the ecological validity of VR as a research tool to study evacuation behavior in emergency situations, with the caveat that effect sizes may be smaller in VR.

  8. Counting crises: US hospital evacuations, 1971-1999.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternberg, Ernest; Lee, George C; Huard, Danial

    2004-01-01

    To investigate the relative distribution of hazards causing hospital evacuations, thereby to provide rudimentary risk information for hospital disaster planning. Cases of hospital evacuations were retrieved from newspaper and publication databases and classified according to hazard type, proximate and original cause, duration, and casualties. Both partial and full evacuations were included. The total number of evacuation incidents for all hazards were compared to the total number of hospital incidents for the one hazard, fire, for which national data is available. There were 275 reported evacuation incidents from 1971-1999, with an annual average of 21 in the 1990s, the period for which databases were more reliable. The most, 33, were recorded in 1994, the year of the Northridge Earthquake. Of all incidents, 63 (23%) were attributable primarily to internal fire, followed by internal hazardous materials (HazMat) events (18%), hurricane (14%), human threat (13%), earthquake (9%), external fire (6%), flood (6%), utility failure (5%), and external HazMat (4%). More than 50% of the hospital evacuations occurred because of hazards originating in the hospital facility itself or from human intruders. While natural disasters were not the preponderant causes of evacuations, they caused severe problems when multiple hospitals in the same urban area were incapacitated simultaneously. Clearly, as hospitals are vulnerable to many hazards, mitigation investments should be assessed not in terms of single-hazard risk-cost-benefit analysis, but in terms of capacity to mitigate multiple hazards. In view of the many qualifications and limitations of the dataset used here, but value of such data for disaster planning, hospitals should be asked to submit standardized incident reports to permit national data gathering on major disruptions.

  9. The Influence of subway climatology on gas dispersion and the effectiveness of guided evacuations in a complex subway station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Brüne

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a strategy that integrates data from tracer gas experiments with results from pedestrian simulation software in the evaluation of different evacuation procedures for subway stations in response to a fire or a terrorist attack with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and enhanced conventional weapons (CBRNE. The study demonstrates that by combining the two data sets a greater understanding of the impact of different evacuations routes on an evacuee's health is gained. It is shown that by controlling the routes pedestrians would use to exit a subway station, the number of fatalities and evacuees with long term health issues can be reduced. It is highlighted that a dynamic evacuation guiding system based on subway climatology would take into account the source of the toxin, the resulting dispersal of gas, smoke, etc. and the subway climatology at the time. In doing so, it would be possible to identify the most endangered areas and guide passengers via an adaptive escape route using audio and visual techniques. Information on the evolution of the emergency situation could also simultaneously be relayed back to the rescue forces to help to plan the rescue and evacuation procedures and optimise the deployment of the search and rescue teams.

  10. Modeling and simulating for congestion pedestrian evacuation with panic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinhuan; Zhang, Lei; Shi, Qiongyu; Yang, Peng; Hu, Xiaoming

    2015-06-01

    A new multi-agent based congestion evacuation model incorporating panic behavior is proposed in this paper for simulating pedestrian evacuation in public places such as a stadium. Different from the existing results, pedestrians in this model are divided into four classes and each pedestrian's status can be either normal, being overtaken, or casualty. The direction of action for each individual is affected by competitive ability, distance to the exits as well as number and density of occupants within the view field of the agent. Our simulations exhibit that during the evacuation process: (1) The agents gather in front of the exits spontaneously and present arched shapes close to the exits. (2) Under the panic state the agents cohere closely and almost do not change the target exit. So other alternative exits are ignored. (3) For the case without obstacle, the casualties under panic increase greatly. But if there are obstacles (chairs), the congestion can be alleviated. Thus the casualties are reduced. (4) If certain exit is partly clogged, the evacuation becomes more efficient when adding a virtual leader. The overall simulation results show that the proposed model can reproduce the real evacuation process in a stadium quite well.

  11. A Simple Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Tool for First Responders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Daniel B [ORNL; Payne, Patricia W [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Although modeling and simulation of mass evacuations during a natural or man-made disaster is an on-going and vigorous area of study, tool adoption by front-line first responders is uneven. Some of the factors that account for this situation include cost and complexity of the software. For several years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been actively developing the free Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit (IMPACT) to address these issues. One of the components of IMPACT is a multi-agent simulation module for area-based and path-based evacuations. The user interface is designed so that anyone familiar with typical computer drawing tools can quickly author a geospatially-correct evacuation visualization suitable for table-top exercises. Since IMPACT is designed for use in the field where network communications may not be available, quick on-site evacuation alternatives can be evaluated to keep pace with a fluid threat situation. Realism is enhanced by incorporating collision avoidance into the simulation. Statistics are gathered as the simulation unfolds, including most importantly time-to-evacuate, to help first responders choose the best course of action.

  12. Multiobjective Optimization of Evacuation Routes in Stadium Using Superposed Potential Field Network Based ACO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jialiang Kou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiobjective evacuation routes optimization problem is defined to find out optimal evacuation routes for a group of evacuees under multiple evacuation objectives. For improving the evacuation efficiency, we abstracted the evacuation zone as a superposed potential field network (SPFN, and we presented SPFN-based ACO algorithm (SPFN-ACO to solve this problem based on the proposed model. In Wuhan Sports Center case, we compared SPFN-ACO algorithm with HMERP-ACO algorithm and traditional ACO algorithm under three evacuation objectives, namely, total evacuation time, total evacuation route length, and cumulative congestion degree. The experimental results show that SPFN-ACO algorithm has a better performance while comparing with HMERP-ACO algorithm and traditional ACO algorithm for solving multi-objective evacuation routes optimization problem.

  13. Simulation of the shopping center 'Zona I' evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important and the most complex tasks in human protection and human safety in objects is the projecting of the object evacuation. There are many factors that could effect on the opportune living of object such as object assignment, arrangement of rooms, arrangement of furniture, arrangement of exits, occupant speed and many other that human lives and material properties depend on. This is very important for objects with great number of humans, such as high residential objects, shopping centers, schools, hospitals etc. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situations and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of the shopping center 'Zona I' in Niš.

  14. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A generic transportation network model for the calculation of evacuation time estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, M.P.; Desrosiers, A.E.; Urbanik, T. II

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuation times for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies. (author)

  15. Personalized Alert Notifications and Evacuation Routes in Indoor Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Onorati

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The preparedness phase is crucial in the emergency management process for reaching an adequate level of readiness to react to potential threats and hazards. During this phase, emergency plans are developed to establish, among other procedures, evacuation and emergency escape routes. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT can support and improve these procedures providing appropriate, updated and accessible information to all people in the affected zone. Current emergency management and evacuation systems do not adapt information to the context and the profile of each person, so messages received in the emergency might be useless. In this paper, we propose a set of criteria that ICT-based systems could achieve in order to avoid this problem adapting emergency alerts and evacuation routes to different situations and people. Moreover, in order to prove the applicability of such criteria, we define a mechanism that can be used as a complement of traditional evacuation systems to provide personalized alerts and evacuation routes to all kinds of people during emergency situations in working places. This mechanism is composed by three main components: CAP-ONES for notifying emergency alerts, NERES for defining emergency plans and generating personalized evacuation routes, and iNeres as the interface to receive and visualize these routes on smartphones. The usability and understandability of proposed interface has been assessed through a user study performed in a fire simulation in an indoor environment. This evaluation demonstrated that users considered iNeres easy to understand, to learn and to use, and they also found very innovative the idea to use smartphones as a support for escaping instead of static signals on walls and doors.

  16. SCALING AN URBAN EMERGENCY EVACUATION FRAMEWORK: CHALLENGES AND PRACTICES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karthik, Rajasekar [ORNL; Lu, Wei [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Critical infrastructure disruption, caused by severe weather events, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc., has significant impacts on urban transportation systems. We built a computational framework to simulate urban transportation systems under critical infrastructure disruption in order to aid real-time emergency evacuation. This framework will use large scale datasets to provide a scalable tool for emergency planning and management. Our framework, World-Wide Emergency Evacuation (WWEE), integrates population distribution and urban infrastructure networks to model travel demand in emergency situations at global level. Also, a computational model of agent-based traffic simulation is used to provide an optimal evacuation plan for traffic operation purpose [1]. In addition, our framework provides a web-based high resolution visualization tool for emergency evacuation modelers and practitioners. We have successfully tested our framework with scenarios in both United States (Alexandria, VA) and Europe (Berlin, Germany) [2]. However, there are still some major drawbacks for scaling this framework to handle big data workloads in real time. On our back-end, lack of proper infrastructure limits us in ability to process large amounts of data, run the simulation efficiently and quickly, and provide fast retrieval and serving of data. On the front-end, the visualization performance of microscopic evacuation results is still not efficient enough due to high volume data communication between server and client. We are addressing these drawbacks by using cloud computing and next-generation web technologies, namely Node.js, NoSQL, WebGL, Open Layers 3 and HTML5 technologies. We will describe briefly about each one and how we are using and leveraging these technologies to provide an efficient tool for emergency management organizations. Our early experimentation demonstrates that using above technologies is a promising approach to build a scalable and high performance urban

  17. Empire Redux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mercau, Ezequiel

    from the legacies of empire. Taking decolonization as a starting point, this thesis demonstrates how the idea of a ‘British world’ gained a new lease of life vis-à-vis the Falklands, as the Islanders adopted the rhetorical mantle of ‘abandoned Britons’. Yet this new momentum was partial and fractured......The Falklands War was shrouded in symbolism and permeated with imperial rhetoric, imagery and memories, bringing to the fore divergent conceptions of Britishness, kinship and belonging. The current dispute, moreover, is frequently framed in terms of national identity, and accusations of imperialism......, as evinced by the developments triggered by the Argentine invasion in 1982. Despite the apparent firmness of the British government’s commitment to the Islands, cracks and fissures over the meaning of Britishness were simultaneously magnified. The perceived temporal dislocation of defending loyal Britons...

  18. Method and means for producing solid evacuated microspheres of hydrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Robert J.; Foster, Christopher A.; Hendricks, Charles D.

    1976-01-01

    A method is provided for producing solid, evacuated microspheres comprised of hydrogen. The spheres are produced by forming a jet of liquid hydrogen and exciting mechanical waves on the jet of appropriate frequency so that the jet breaks up into drops with a bubble formed in each drop by cavitation. The drops are exposed to a pressure less than the vapor pressure of the liquid hydrogen so that the bubble which is formed within each drop expands. The drops which contain bubbles are exposed to an environment having a pressure just below the triple point of liquid hydrogen and they thereby freeze giving solid, evacuated spheres of hydrogen.

  19. Method and means for producing solid evacuated microspheres of hydrogen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turnbull, R.J.; Foster, C.A.; Hendricks, C.D.

    1976-01-01

    A method is provided for producing solid, evacuated microspheres comprised of hydrogen. The spheres are produced by forming a jet of liquid hydrogen and exciting mechanical waves on the jet of appropriate frequency so that the jet breaks up into drops with a bubble formed in each drop by cavitation. The drops are exposed to a pressure less than the vapor pressure of the liquid hydrogen so that the bubble which is formed within each drop expands. The drops which contain bubbles are exposed to an environment having a pressure just below the triple point of liquid hydrogen and they hereby freeze giving solid, evacuated spheres of hydrogen. 4 claims, 1 fig

  20. Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Gordon, Leslie C.

    2015-01-01

    Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, for use by researchers and emergency managers to estimate how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a tsunami-hazard zone. The ArcGIS software extension, released in September 2014, allows the user to create maps showing travel times out of hazard zones and to determine the number of people that may or may not have enough time to evacuate. The maps take into account the elevation changes and the different types of land cover that a person would encounter along the way.

  1. An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Integrate Tsunami Science, Human Behavior, and Unplanned Network Disruptions for Nearfield Tsunami Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. T.; Wang, H.; Cramer, L.; Mostafizi, A.; Park, H.

    2016-12-01

    shortest distance between the evacuee and the shelter area. Detailed investigations with the Agent Based Model reveal that the evacuation planning for both of these cases requires a synthesis of the tsunami inundation dynamics, social conditions and decision making, and the potential for unplanned disruptions of the engineered infrastructure.

  2. Association between Empirically Estimated Monsoon Dynamics and Other Weather Factors and Historical Tea Yields in China: Results from a Yield Response Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Boehm

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Farmers in China’s tea-growing regions report that monsoon dynamics and other weather factors are changing and that this is affecting tea harvest decisions. To assess the effect of climate change on tea production in China, this study uses historical weather and production data from 1980 to 2011 to construct a yield response model that estimates the partial effect of weather factors on tea yields in China, with a specific focus on East Asian Monsoon dynamics. Tea (Camellia sinensis (L. Kunze has not been studied using these methods even though it is an important crop for human nutrition and the economic well-being of rural communities in many countries. Previous studies have approximated the monsoon period using historical average onset and retreat dates, which we believe limits our understanding of how changing monsoon patterns affect crop productivity. In our analysis, we instead estimate the monsoon season across China’s tea growing regions empirically by identifying the unknown breakpoints in the year-by-province cumulative precipitation. We find that a 1% increase in the monsoon retreat date is associated with 0.481%–0.535% reduction in tea yield. In the previous year, we also find that a 1% increase in the date of the monsoon retreat is associated with a 0.604% decrease in tea yields. For precipitation, we find that a 1% increase in average daily precipitation occurring during the monsoon period is associated with a 0.184%–0.262% reduction in tea yields. In addition, our models show that 1% increase in the average daily monsoon precipitation from the previous growing season is associated with 0.258%–0.327% decline in yields. We also find that a 1% decrease in solar radiation in the previous growing season is associated with 0.554%-0.864% decrease in tea yields. These findings suggest the need for adaptive management and harvesting strategies given climate change projections and the known negative association between excess

  3. Prey exoskeletons influence the course of gastric evacuation in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Couturier, C. S.; Andersen, N. G.; Audet, C.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the effects of prey exoskeleton characteristics on gastric evacuation patterns in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. Three distinct stages were highlighted in the gastric evacuation of crustacean prey characterized by a robust exoskeleton. The experiments confirmed that the three shrimp...... of the prey exoskeleton all affected gastric evacuation: duration of initial delay, overall evacuation rate and a decreased evacuation rate at the end of the process. The power exponential function (PEF), with its shape parameter, described the course of evacuation for these prey types well, especially...... the initial delay. The PEF does not, however, allow describing evacuation by the current stomach content mass independent of meal size, which limits its usefulness in estimating consumption rates of wild G. morhua. To predict and describe gastric evacuation of prey with a robust exoskeleton, it is therefore...

  4. AEROMEDICAL EVACUATION: CLINICALLY PREPARING AIR FORCE FLIGHT NURSES

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-10

    nurses should be based on: “educational and experiential background, technical and clinical competence, leadership skills , critical thinking skills ...aeromedical evacuation squadron, military flight nurses have limited opportunities to maintain their clinical skills . This results in attempting to...method to improve the clinical skills of military flight nurses . 1 INTRODUCTION A lack of registered nurses has plagued the nursing profession

  5. A heterogeneous lattice gas model for simulating pedestrian evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiwei; Chen, Jianqiao; Zheng, Yaochen; Wei, Junhong

    2012-02-01

    Based on the cellular automata method (CA model) and the mobile lattice gas model (MLG model), we have developed a heterogeneous lattice gas model for simulating pedestrian evacuation processes in an emergency. A local population density concept is introduced first. The update rule in the new model depends on the local population density and the exit crowded degree factor. The drift D, which is one of the key parameters influencing the evacuation process, is allowed to change according to the local population density of the pedestrians. Interactions including attraction, repulsion, and friction between every two pedestrians and those between a pedestrian and the building wall are described by a nonlinear function of the corresponding distance, and the repulsion forces increase sharply as the distances get small. A critical force of injury is introduced into the model, and its effects on the evacuation process are investigated. The model proposed has heterogeneous features as compared to the MLG model or the basic CA model. Numerical examples show that the model proposed can capture the basic features of pedestrian evacuation, such as clogging and arching phenomena.

  6. Virtual environment simulation as a tool to support evacuation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mol, Antonio C.; Grecco, Claudio H.S.; Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Jorge, Carlos A.F.; Sales, Douglas S.; Couto, Pedro M.; Botelho, Felipe M.; Bastos, Felipe R.

    2007-01-01

    This work is a preliminary study of the use of a free game-engine as a tool to build and to navigate in virtual environments, with a good degree of realism, for virtual simulations of evacuation from building and risk zones. To achieve this goal, some adjustments in the game engine have been implemented. A real building with four floors, consisting of some rooms with furniture and people, has been virtually implemented. Simulations of simple different evacuation scenarios have been performed, measuring the total time spent in each case. The measured times have been compared with their corresponding real evacuation times, measured in the real building. The first results have demonstrated that the virtual environment building with the free game engine is capable to reproduce the real situation with a satisfactory level. However, it is important to emphasize that such virtual simulations serve only as an aid in the planning of real evacuation simulations, and as such must never substitute the later. (author)

  7. evolution de la frequence et des problemes lies aux evacuations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EVOLUTION DE LA FREQUENCE ET DES PROBLEMES LIES AUX. EVACUATIONS SANITAIRES VERS LE SERVICE DE GYNECOLOGIE-OBS-. TETRIQUE DE L'HOPITAL COMMUNAUTAIRE DE BANGUI. SEPOU A.1; GODDOT M.1; NGBALE R.1;GAUNEFET C.E.1; DOMANDE-MODANGA Z.1;. FANDEMA E.1 ...

  8. CT guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive and traumatic intracerebral hematomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondo, Hideki; Matsumoto, Keizo

    1983-01-01

    Recent advancement of CT system provides not only definite diagnosis and location of intracerebral hematoma but also coordinates of the center of the hematoma. Trials of stereotactic evacuation of the hematoma have been reported by some authors in the cases of subacute or chronic stages of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage. In this series, similar surgery has been performed in 33 cases of hypertensive intracerebral hematoma including 22 cases in acute stage, and 2 cases of traumatic hematoma. Clinical outcomes were investigated and the results were considered to be equivalent or rather better in the conventional microsurgery with evacuation of hematoma under direct vision. However, there still remained controversial problems in the cases of threatened herniation signs, because in these cases regular surgery with total evacuation of the hematoma at one time might have been preferable. The benefits of this CT guided stereotactic approach for the evacuation of the hematoma were thought to be as follow: 1) the procedure is simple and safe, 2) operation is readily performed under local anesthesia, and 3) the hematoma was drained out totally by means of urokinase activity. It is our impression that this surgery not only is indicated as emergency treatment for the patients of high-age or in high risk, but also can institute as a routine surgery for the intracerebral hematomas in patients showing no herniation sign. (J.P.N.)

  9. Analyzing Noncombatant Evacuation Operations Using Discrete Event Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    conduct processing, screening, and logistic functions associated with emergency evacuation. ECCs are typically collocated with an airfield or seaport ... hotels , stadiums, and other locations where NCEs can stay until transportation to the United States is available (Joint Chiefs of Staff 2007). NCEs

  10. Emergency evacuation : how better interior design can improve passenger flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, L.C.; Skjong, R.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents some conclusions from the EU basic research project "MEPdesign" relevant for design of ship interiors. The findings are discussed with regard to passenger flow as a function of design parameters. The paper explains that current evacuation analyses may be overly optimistic. The

  11. Performance analysis of double basin solar still with evacuated tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hitesh N Panchal; Shah, P. K.

    2013-01-01

    Solar still is a very simple device, which is used for solar distillation process. In this research work, double basin solar still is made from locally available materials. Double basin solar still is made in such a way that, outer basin is exposed to sun and lower side of inner basin is directly connected with evacuated tubes to increase distillate output and reducing heat losses of a solar still. The overall size of the lower basin is about 1006 mm x 325 mm x 380 mm, the outer basin is about 1006 mm x 536 mm x 100 mm Black granite gravel is used to increase distillate output by reducing quantity of brackish or saline water in the both basins. Several experiments have conducted to determine the performance of a solar still in climate conditions of Mehsana (latitude of 23 degree 59' and longitude of 72 degree 38'), Gujarat, like a double basin solar still alone, double basin solar still with different size black granite gravel, double basin solar still with evacuated tubes and double basin solar still with evacuated tubes and different size black granite gravel. Experimental results show that, connecting evacuated tubes with the lower side of the inner basin increases daily distillate output of 56% and is increased by 60%, 63% and 67% with average 10 mm, 20 mm and 30 mm size black granite gravel. Economic analysis of present double basin solar still is 195 days. (authors)

  12. Quantitative Comparison Between Crowd Models for Evacuation Planning and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viswanathan, V.; Lee, C.E.; Lees, M.H.; Cheong, S.A.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Crowd simulation is rapidly becoming a standard tool for evacuation planning and evaluation. However, the many crowd models in the literature are structurally different, and few have been rigorously calibrated against real-world egress data, especially in emergency situations. In this paper we

  13. Physician roles in aeromedical evacuation: current practices in USAF operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, William W; Montminy, Richard J; De Lorenzo, Robert A; Burd, Lawrence T; Goldman, Brad S; Loftus, Thomas J

    2006-06-01

    Physicians play an increasingly important role in the critical medical process of aeromedical evacuation (AE). Incomplete or inappropriate preparation for AE can result in increased patient discomfort, and in the worst cases, potentially serious or insurmountable in-flight medical problems. During military operations and in response to natural disasters, physicians are responsible for four processes necessary for a successful AE mission. These include: 1) AE screening, including determination of appropriate classification, precedence, and special medical requirements; 2) validation; 3) medical preparation; and 4) clearance. Physicians responsible for preparing patients for AE need to understand both the patient evacuation system and the unique medical aspects associated with AE. The U.S. military patient evacuation system is comprised of three principal transportation phases: casualty evacuation; inter-theater AE; and intra-theater AE. Important elements of the USAF AE system are patient movement requirements centers, the validating flight surgeon, aeromedical staging facilities, AE liaison teams, aeromedical crews, and critical care air transport (CCAT) teams. Important medical aspects unique to AE include the effects of flight physiology on medical conditions, oxygen limitations, and distinctive medication and supplies requirements.

  14. Optimal control of diarrhea transmission in a flood evacuation zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwina, N.; Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.

    2014-03-01

    Evacuation of residents and diarrhea disease outbreak in evacuation zone have become serious problem that frequently happened during flood periods. Limited clean water supply and infrastructure in evacuation zone contribute to a critical spread of diarrhea. Transmission of diarrhea disease can be reduced by controlling clean water supply and treating diarrhea patients properly. These treatments require significant amount of budget, which may not be fulfilled in the fields. In his paper, transmission of diarrhea disease in evacuation zone using SIRS model is presented as control optimum problem with clean water supply and rate of treated patients as input controls. Existence and stability of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are investigated analytically for constant input controls. Optimum clean water supply and rate of treatment are found using optimum control technique. Optimal results for transmission of diarrhea and the corresponding controls during the period of observation are simulated numerically. The optimum result shows that transmission of diarrhea disease can be controlled with proper combination of water supply and rate of treatment within allowable budget.

  15. Lacan's psycho-analytic evacuation of the rainbow nation identity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lacan's psycho-analytic evacuation of the rainbow nation identity [English] Given the increasing displacement of the essentialist racial categories of the past and the emergence of often-superficial theorisations of race in terms of the diverse South African experiences of difference and Otherness, this article seeks to ...

  16. Evacuation and Sheltering of Hospitals in Emergencies: A Review of International Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Bagaria, Jayshree; Heggie, Caroline; Abrahams, Jonathan; Murray, Virginia

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Objective: A scoping exercise to establish how common hospital evacuations are, identify hospital evacuation policies and review case studies to identify trig-gers, processes and challenges involved in the evacuation of hospitals globally. Design: A systematic search of PubMed and disaster agency online resources, search of grey literature and media reports. Results: This study showed that hospitals are vulnerable to both natural and man made disasters and that hospital evacuations d...

  17. Evacuation of Hospitals during Disaster, Establishment of a Field Hospital, and Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Tekin, Erdal; Bayramoglu, Atif; Uzkeser, Mustafa; Cakir, Zeynep

    2017-01-01

    The buildings, working personnel, and patients and their relatives may directly or indirectly be affected by the disasters. Here we will discuss evacuation, establishing a field hospital, communication, the role of the media in disasters, and defending against sabotage. The affected individuals should be evacuated and transferred to secure zones safely and rapidly. How the decision for evacuation should be made and how the evacuation triage should be performed are important issues. Field hosp...

  18. The impact of the San Diego wildfires on a general mental health population residing in evacuation areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tally, Steven; Levack, Ashley; Sarkin, Andrew J; Gilmer, Todd; Groessl, Erik J

    2013-09-01

    San Diego County Mental Health system clients completed a questionnaire after the October 2007 wildfires. As compared to those not in an evacuation area, those residing in an evacuation area reported significantly more impact of the fires. Clients who evacuated were most affected, followed by those in an evacuation area who did not evacuate. Evacuation strongly impacted client-reported emotional effects of the fire, confusion about whether to evacuate, and ability to obtain medications. Gender and clinical diagnosis interacted with evacuation status for some fire impact variables. Loss of control and disruption of routine are discussed as possibly related factors.

  19. EA-based evacuation planning using agent-based crowd simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhong, J.; Cai, W.; Luo, L.; Lees, M.; Tolk, A.; Diallo, S.Y.; Ryzhov, I.O.; Yilmaz, L.; Buckley, S.; Miller, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    Safety planning for crowd evacuation is an important and active research topic nowadays. One important issue is to devise the evacuation plans of individuals in emergency situations so as to reduce the total evacuation time. This paper proposes a novel evolutionary algorithm (EA)-based methodology,

  20. The effects of meal size, body size and temperature on gastric evacuation in pikeperch

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koed, Anders

    2001-01-01

    Prey size had no effect on the gastric evacuation rate of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca. The gastric evacuation was adequately described applying an exponent of 0.5 in the power model. Applying length instead of weight of pikeperch in the gastric evacuation model resulted in a change of estim...

  1. Automatic sleep staging using empirical mode decomposition, discrete wavelet transform, time-domain, and nonlinear dynamics features of heart rate variability signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Farideh; Setarehdan, Seyed-Kamaledin; Ayala-Moyeda, Jose; Nazeran, Homer

    2013-10-01

    The conventional method for sleep staging is to analyze polysomnograms (PSGs) recorded in a sleep lab. The electroencephalogram (EEG) is one of the most important signals in PSGs but recording and analysis of this signal presents a number of technical challenges, especially at home. Instead, electrocardiograms (ECGs) are much easier to record and may offer an attractive alternative for home sleep monitoring. The heart rate variability (HRV) signal proves suitable for automatic sleep staging. Thirty PSGs from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) database were used. Three feature sets were extracted from 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments: time-domain features, nonlinear-dynamics features and time-frequency features. The latter was achieved by using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) methods. Normalized energies in important frequency bands of HRV signals were computed using time-frequency methods. ANOVA and t-test were used for statistical evaluations. Automatic sleep staging was based on HRV signal features. The ANOVA followed by a post hoc Bonferroni was used for individual feature assessment. Most features were beneficial for sleep staging. A t-test was used to compare the means of extracted features in 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments. The results showed that the extracted features means were statistically similar for a small number of features. A separability measure showed that time-frequency features, especially EMD features, had larger separation than others. There was not a sizable difference in separability of linear features between 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments but separability of nonlinear features, especially EMD features, decreased in 0.5-min HRV segments. HRV signal features were classified by linear discriminant (LD) and quadratic discriminant (QD) methods. Classification results based on features from 5-min segments surpassed those obtained from 0.5-min segments. The best result was obtained from features using 5-min HRV

  2. Burning down the brewery: Establishing and evacuating an ancient imperial colony at Cerro Baúl, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, Michael E.; Nash, Donna J.; Williams, Patrick Ryan; deFrance, Susan D.; Miranda, Ana; Ruales, Mario

    2005-01-01

    Before the Inca reigned, two empires held sway over the central Andes from anno Domini 600 to 1000: the Wari empire to the north ruled much of Peru, and Tiwanaku to the south reigned in Bolivia. Face-to-face contact came when both colonized the Moquegua Valley sierra in southern Peru. The state-sponsored Wari incursion, described here, entailed large-scale agrarian reclamation to sustain the occupation of two hills and the adjacent high mesa of Cerro Baúl. Monumental buildings were erected atop the mesa to serve an embassy-like delegation of nobles and attendant personnel that endured for centuries. Final evacuation of the Baúl enclave was accompanied by elaborate ceremonies with brewing, drinking, feasting, vessel smashing, and building burning. PMID:16293691

  3. Peculiarities of Intestine Motor-Evacuation Function in Patients with Various Forms of Irritable Bowel Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Nagieva

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available To assess motor and evacuation function of gastrointestinal tract in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS several methods can be used. Our aim was to study colonic motility in patients with different variants of IBS using dynamic scintigraphy. Materials and methods. 107 patients with IBS by Rome III criteria (2006 were enrolled. All patients were divided into 4 groups: I group — IBS with constipation (36/107, 33.6 %, II group — IBS with diarrhea (35/107, 32.7 %, III group — unspecified IBS (22/107, 20.7 %, IV group — mixed IBS (14/107, 13.0 %. Dynamic scintigraphy was done using scintillation gamma-room OFECT‑1 and EBM. Medium activity of radiopharmaceutical was taken at a rate of 10 MBq/kg body weight of the patient. Results. The results showed that in case of the IBS with constipation the passage of radiopharmaceutical decreased (increased radioactivity in the abdomen (> 60 % and asymmetry of the right and left parts of the bowel is 2 5 %, p 0.05. Conclusion. Using dynamic scintigraphy we found expressed slowing of the passage of radiopharmaceutical in IBS patients with constipation (p < 0.05, while in case of IBS with diarrhea the speed of radiopharmaceutical evacuation was increased (p < 0.05. In a case of other variants of IBS no statistically significant changes were detected.

  4. Should evacuation standards be reviewed after a nuclear accident?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nifenecker, Herve

    2011-10-01

    The author comments the current practices of post-accident management of nuclear disasters. He outlines the peculiarities of nuclear evacuations with respect to other disasters. After referring to the use of life expectancy or of the reduction of life expectancy, for example for smokers, he suggests that irradiation could be expressed this way and then provide some intuitive information. He discusses the notion of linear no-threshold relationship which has been introduced by the ICRP after analysis of cancers noticed on survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He addresses the case of Fukushima, the issue of low doses applied to large populations. He discusses the limitations of the linear no-threshold relationship. He discusses possible improvements of evacuation procedures

  5. The effect of meal size on gastric evacuation in whiting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    1998-01-01

    Gastric evacuation experiments were performed on whiting Merlangius merlangus fed discrete meals of different sizes. Herring Clupea harengus, sandeel Ammodytes tobianus, common goby Pomatoschistus microps, and brown shrimp Crangon crangon were tested as prey. A simple power model to describe...... gastric evacuation was evaluated and compared with a power model expanded as a function of meal size. The model parameters were estimated by means of nonlinear least squares. When all meal sizes were included the estimates of the power (curvature) parameter in the expanded model were within the range 0.......36-0.77 for the different prey. The power estimates in the simple model were generally close to 0.5. The exception was crustacean prey, which gave a higher value. In the simple model the power estimate represents a compromise between the curvatures of the curves fitted to the observations for each meal size...

  6. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  7. Kinetic analysis of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles in the liver of body-temperature-controlled mice using dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging and an empirical mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murase, Kenya; Assanai, Purapan; Takata, Hiroshige; Matsumoto, Nozomi; Saito, Shigeyoshi; Nishiura, Motoko

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a method for analyzing the kinetic behavior of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) in the murine liver under control of body temperature using dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging (DSC-MRI) and an empirical mathematical model (EMM). First, we investigated the influence of body temperature on the kinetic behavior of SPIONs in the liver by controlling body temperature using our temperature-control system. Second, we investigated the kinetic behavior of SPIONs in the liver when mice were injected with various doses of GdCl3, while keeping the body temperature at 36°C. Finally, we investigated it when mice were injected with various doses of zymosan, while keeping the body temperature at 36°C. We also investigated the effect of these substances on the number of Kupffer cells by immunohistochemical analysis using the specific surface antigen of Kupffer cells (CD68). To quantify the kinetic behavior of SPIONs in the liver, we calculated the upper limit of the relative enhancement (A), the rates of early contrast uptake (α) and washout or late contrast uptake (β), the parameter related to the slope of early uptake (q), the area under the curve (AUC), the maximum change of transverse relaxation rate (ΔR2) (ΔR2(max)), the time to ΔR2(max) (Tmax), and ΔR2 at the last time point (ΔR2(last)) from the time courses of ΔR2 using the EMM. The β and Tmax values significantly decreased and increased, respectively, with decreasing body temperature, suggesting that the phagocytic activity of Kupffer cells is significantly affected by body temperature. The AUC, ΔR2(max), and ΔR2(last) values decreased significantly with increasing dose of GdCl3, which was consistent with the change in the number of CD68-positive cells. They increased with increasing dose of zymosan, which was also consistent with the change in the number of CD68-positive cells. These results suggest that AUC, ΔR2(max), and ΔR2

  8. Evacuation of Pedestrians with Two Motion Modes for Panic System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, You; Xie, Jiarong; Wang, Binghong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have captured an underlying mechanism of emergence of collective panic in pedestrian evacuations by using a modification of the lattice-gas model. We classify the motion of pedestrians into two modes according to their moods. One is gentle (mode I), the other is flustered (mode II). First, to research the cause for crowd, we fix the motion modes of pedestrians and increase the proportion of pedestrians with motion mode II (ρII). The simulation results show that the pedestrians with motion mode II are lack of evacuation efficiency and cause more casualties. Further, we use the SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) model to describe the spreading of the panic mood. The system can be in the high-mix state when the infection probability λ is greater than a fuzzy threshold. In addition, the distances S from wounded people to the exit are researched, the number of wounded people gets maximum at the internal S = 5∼10, which is independent of ρII and λ. This research can help us to understand and prevent the emergence of collective panic and reduce wounds in the real evacuation.

  9. Pedestrians’ behavior in emergency evacuation: Modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Zheng, Jie-Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Shuang; Zhang, Jian-Lin; Wang, Qiu-Zhen; Zhang, Qian

    2016-11-01

    The social force model has been widely used to simulate pedestrian evacuation by analyzing attractive, repulsive, driving, and fluctuating forces among pedestrians. Many researchers have improved its limitations in simulating behaviors of large-scale population. This study modifies the well-accepted social force model by considering the impacts of interaction among companions and further develops a comprehensive model by combining that with a multi-exit utility function. Then numerical simulations of evacuations based on the comprehensive model are implemented in the waiting hall of the Wulin Square Subway Station in Hangzhou, China. The results provide safety thresholds of pedestrian density and panic levels in different operation situations. In spite of the operation situation and the panic level, a larger friend-group size results in lower evacuation efficiency. Our study makes important contributions to building a comprehensive multi-exit social force model and to applying it to actual scenarios, which produces data to facilitate decision making in contingency plans and emergency treatment. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71471163).

  10. Medical Evacuation from Vietnam of an Elderly with Tuberculosis Spondylitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Hua Shieh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite the growth in economy in Vietnam, the infrastructure of dependable medical care is still lacking. Therefore, aeromedical evacuation of patients to other countries for further medical interventions has become an important medical service in the region. We report a case where an elderly man who was aeromedically evacuated from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam to Taipei Medical University–Municipal Wan Fang Hospital in Taipei, Taiwan. The patient developed a sudden onset of quadriplegia because of an epidural abscess at the cervical spine C6–C7. Antituberculous medication was prescribed for suspected tuberculous spondylitis, because his cerebral spinal fluid showed elevated white blood cells with a predominance of lymphocytes, and mildly elevated total protein. However, whole body tumor scan (67Ga mCi and whole body bone scan (99mTc methylene diphosphonate, 25 mCi did not reveal any specific results. Surgical intervention was arranged because of cervical spine instability and the need for a diagnostic biopsy. Adenocarcinoma of the prostate was found incidentally and was treated with bilateral orchiectomy and radiation therapy. This was the first medical evacuation by the Family Medical Practice group in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam to Taiwan.

  11. Evacuation of Pedestrians with Two Motion Modes for Panic System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You Zou

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have captured an underlying mechanism of emergence of collective panic in pedestrian evacuations by using a modification of the lattice-gas model. We classify the motion of pedestrians into two modes according to their moods. One is gentle (mode I, the other is flustered (mode II. First, to research the cause for crowd, we fix the motion modes of pedestrians and increase the proportion of pedestrians with motion mode II (ρII. The simulation results show that the pedestrians with motion mode II are lack of evacuation efficiency and cause more casualties. Further, we use the SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible model to describe the spreading of the panic mood. The system can be in the high-mix state when the infection probability λ is greater than a fuzzy threshold. In addition, the distances S from wounded people to the exit are researched, the number of wounded people gets maximum at the internal S = 5∼10, which is independent of ρII and λ. This research can help us to understand and prevent the emergence of collective panic and reduce wounds in the real evacuation.

  12. An evaluation of sharp safety blood evacuation devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Joanna; Phillips, Peter

    This article describes an evaluation of three sharp safety blood evacuation devices in seven Welsh NHS boards and the Welsh Blood Service. Products consisted of two phlebotomy needles possessing safety shields and one phlebotomy device with wings, tubing and a retractable needle. The device companies provided the devices and appropriate training. Participating healthcare workers used the safety device instead of the conventional device to sample blood during the evaluation period and each type of device was evaluated in random order. Participants filled in a questionnaire for each type of device and then a further questionnaire comparing the two shielded evacuation needles with each other Results showed that responses to all three products were fairly positive, although each device was not liked by everyone who used it. When the two shielded evacuation devices were compared with each other, most users preferred the device with the shield positioned directly above the needle to the device with the shield at the side. However, in laboratory tests, the preferred device produced more fluid splatter than the other shielded device on activation.

  13. Short-time home coming project in evacuation zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuzaki, Hideo

    2011-01-01

    Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) forced neighboring residents to evacuate, and evacuation zone (20 km radius from NPPs) was defined as highly contaminated and designated as no-entry zones. Residents had been obliged to live a refugee life for a longer period than expected. Short-time home coming project was initiated according to their requests. They came to the meeting place called transfer place (20 - 30 km radius from NPPs), wore protective clothing and personal dosimeter with having drinking water and came home in evacuation zone with staffs by bus. Their healthcare management professionals were fully prepared for emergency. After collecting necessary articles at home within two hours, they returned to the meeting place by bus for screening and dressing, and went back to refuge house. If screening data were greater than 13 kcpm using GM counters, partial body decontamination had been conducted by wiping and if greater than 100 kcpm, whole body decontamination was requested but not conducted. Dose rate of residents and staffs was controlled less than 1 mSv, which was alarm level of personal dosimeter. Stable iodine was prepared but actually not used. (T. Tanaka)

  14. The Safety and Feasibility of Image-Guided BrainPath-Mediated Transsulcul Hematoma Evacuation: A Multicenter Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labib, Mohamed A; Shah, Mitesh; Kassam, Amin B; Young, Ronald; Zucker, Lloyd; Maioriello, Anthony; Britz, Gavin; Agbi, Charles; Day, J D; Gallia, Gary; Kerr, Robert; Pradilla, Gustavo; Rovin, Richard; Kulwin, Charles; Bailes, Julian

    2017-04-01

    Subcortical injury resulting from conventional surgical management of intracranial hemorrhage may counteract the potential benefits of hematoma evacuation. To evaluate the safety and potential benefits of a novel, minimally invasive approach for clot evacuation in a multicenter study. The integrated approach incorporates 5 competencies: (1) image interpretation and trajectory planning, (2) dynamic navigation, (3) atraumatic access system (BrainPath, NICO Corp, Indianapolis, Indiana), (4) extracorporeal optics, and (5) automated atraumatic resection. Twelve neurosurgeons from 11 centers were trained to use this approach through a continuing medical education-accredited course. Demographical, clinical, and radiological data of patients treated over 2 years were analyzed retrospectively. Thirty-nine consecutive patients were identified. The median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score at presentation was 10 (range, 5-15). The thalamus/basal ganglion regions were involved in 46% of the cases. The median hematoma volume and depth were 36 mL (interquartile range [IQR], 27-65 mL) and 1.4 cm (IQR, 0.3-2.9 cm), respectively. The median time from ictus to surgery was 24.5 hours (IQR, 16-66 hours). The degree of hematoma evacuation was ≥90%, 75% to 89%, and 50% to 74% in 72%, 23%, and 5.0% of the patients, respectively. The median GCS score at discharge was 14 (range, 8-15). The improvement in GCS score was statistically significant ( P < .001). Modified Rankin Scale data were available for 35 patients. Fifty-two percent of those patients had a modified Rankin Scale score of ≤2. There were no mortalities. The approach was safely performed in all patients with a relatively high rate of clot evacuation and functional independence. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  15. Patterns of Channel and Sandbar Morphologic Response to Sediment Evacuation on the Colorado River in Marble Canyon, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grams, P. E.; Buscombe, D.; Hazel, J. E., Jr.; Kaplinski, M. A.; Topping, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    Management goals for the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons include improving the condition of sandbars by the implementation of controlled floods. However, in this system that has been perturbed into fine-sediment deficit by an upstream dam, it is uncertain whether sand supply from tributaries is sufficient to support repeated sandbar building, since dam operations typically export sand. We report on a closed sand budget constructed from flux and morphologic measurements for a 50-km segment of Marble Canyon over a 3-year period. The results provide insight into the location and dynamics of sand-storage locations and places recent changes in sand storage in context with historic measurements of bed elevation. The 2009-2012 study period included the largest annual water releases from Glen Canyon Dam since 1998. The measurements of sand flux and repeat morphologic measurements both indicate that these releases evacuated on the order of 300,000 m3 of sand, approximately equivalent to 20% of the total sand flux for the period. The pattern of sand storage change was different between eddies, where sandbars that are of management interest occur, and the main channel. Among eddies, deposition and erosion were approximately balanced and net change was negligible. Nearly all of the net sand evacuation was the result of erosion from the main channel. We estimate that a minimum of 250,000 m3 of sand remained in storage within eddies. Thus, if the high release volumes continued, sand evacuation would likely have been much larger. This is consistent with the measurements of sand flux, which did not indicate a decline in the rate of evacuation until the dam release rate was reduced. Comparisons between the recent measurements of bed elevation with measurements made in the late 1990's indicate that the 2011 scouring event did not cause greater scour than occurred in the mid-1990s.

  16. Simulation Tool for Optimizing Non-Combatant Evacuation (STONE): Optimization of Evacuation Time and Transportation Resource Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    2015 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2015 Abstract A Non-Combatant Evacuation...ressources nécessaires pour une évacuation en un temps désiré ; • estimer le nombre d’évacués à des endroits spécifiques en fonction du temps...schedules; and • estimate the evacuation rate of evacuees to safe havens. DRDC-RDDC-2015-R074 i Résumé Une opération d’évacuation de non-combattants (OEN

  17. Optical trapping and control of nanoparticles inside evacuated hollow core photonic crystal fibers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grass, David, E-mail: david.grass@univie.ac.at; Fesel, Julian; Hofer, Sebastian G.; Kiesel, Nikolai; Aspelmeyer, Markus, E-mail: markus.aspelmeyer@univie.ac.at [Vienna Center for Quantum Science and Technology (VCQ), Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna, A-1090 Vienna (Austria)

    2016-05-30

    We demonstrate an optical conveyor belt for levitated nanoparticles over several centimeters inside both air-filled and evacuated hollow-core photonic crystal fibers (HCPCF). Detection of the transmitted light field allows three-dimensional read-out of the particle center-of-mass motion. An additional laser enables axial radiation pressure based feedback cooling over the full fiber length. We show that the particle dynamics is a sensitive local probe for characterizing the optical intensity profile inside the fiber as well as the pressure distribution along the fiber axis. In contrast to some theoretical predictions, we find a linear pressure dependence inside the HCPCF, extending over three orders of magnitude from 0.2 mbar to 100 mbar. A targeted application is the controlled delivery of nanoparticles from ambient pressure into medium vacuum.

  18. CFD Study of Fluid Flow in an All-glass Evacuated Tube Solar Water Heater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ai, Ning; Fan, Jianhua; Li, Yumin

    2008-01-01

    , which decreases efficiency of the heat exchange process. A baffle in the tube can prevent the flow instability and secure the flow circulation in the tube. The results of the investigation provide a helpful guidance for further investigation of the mechanism of heat transfer processes and a reference......Abstract: The all-glass evacuated tube solar water heater is one of the most widely used solar thermal technologies. The aim of the paper is to investigate fluid flow in the solar water heater by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The investigation was carried out with a focus...... on the convective heat transfer in the tube. The buoyancy induced flow circulation in different parts of the tube was analyzed. It is shown that fluid flow becomes stochastic and turbulent if fluid temperature is high enough. The flow instability leads to mixing of the warm uprising flow and the cold downward flow...

  19. Certainty of uncertainty in evacuation for threat driven response. Principles of adaptive evacuation management for fl ood risk planning in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolen, B.

    2013-01-01

    Evacuation is a measure taken to potentially reduce the loss of life and damage to movable goods. This thesis focuses on the Netherlands as a representative urbanized delta and flood risk management. The central element of this thesis is uncertainty. Evacuation has benefits but can be costly.

  20. Understanding and managing disaster evacuation on a transportation network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, James H; Parlak, Ayse I; Zhou, Qian; Miller, John S; Fontaine, Michael D; Guterbock, Thomas M; Clements, Janet L; Thekdi, Shital A

    2013-01-01

    Uncertain population behaviors in a regional emergency could potentially harm the performance of the region's transportation system and subsequent evacuation effort. The integration of behavioral survey data with travel demand modeling enables an assessment of transportation system performance and the identification of operational and public health countermeasures. This paper analyzes transportation system demand and system performance for emergency management in three disaster scenarios. A two-step methodology first estimates the number of trips evacuating the region, thereby capturing behavioral aspects in a scientifically defensible manner based on survey results, and second, assigns these trips to a regional highway network, using geographic information systems software, thereby making the methodology transferable to other locations. Performance measures are generated for each scenario including maps of volume-to-capacity ratios, geographic contours of evacuation time from the center of the region, and link-specific metrics such as weighted average speed and traffic volume. The methods are demonstrated on a 600 segment transportation network in Washington, DC (USA) and are applied to three scenarios involving attacks from radiological dispersion devices (e.g., dirty bombs). The results suggests that: (1) a single detonation would degrade transportation system performance two to three times more than that which occurs during a typical weekday afternoon peak hour, (2) volume on several critical arterials within the network would exceed capacity in the represented scenarios, and (3) resulting travel times to reach intended destinations imply that un-aided evacuation is impractical. These results assist decisions made by two categories of emergency responders: (1) transportation managers who provide traveler information and who make operational adjustments to improve the network (e.g., signal retiming) and (2) public health officials who maintain shelters, food and

  1. Why Don't People Evacuate When Nature Threatens?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.; Orlove, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Why do so many Southern Californians fail to evacuate when warned that winter storms have critically raised the risk of a debris flow in their neighborhoods? Have they perhaps not seen or heeded news coverage of past debris flow events? Are they unaware that recent fires made the hillsides above them more prone to gravity-driven processes? Do they think they can wait to start their cars until they can actually see the flow coming? Or have they merely experienced too many "false alarms" in past years, and no longer put much stock in the judgment of public officials or the ability of scientists to judge debris flow risk? In preparation for a simulation study that will place decision makers in a virtual house in the California foothills during a winter storm event, we explore the reasons that people do and do not evacuate in the face of potential debris flows. Working in collaboration with the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project for Southern California, we are surveying hundreds of local residents, from debris-flow prone areas and from elsewhere in the state, to establish their baseline knowledge (and misconceptions) about, attitudes toward, information use regarding, and experience with debris flows. Initial interviews with residents of recently hit neighborhoods give qualitative data suggesting that false-alarm effects and underestimation of risk are driving factors; these surveys will provide quantitative evidence to extend those findings. We will discuss the results of this survey in the context of a comprehensive body of psychology research that seeks to explain why people frequently appear to ignore or discount hazard warnings: neglecting to insure their homes and crops (Kunreuther, 1984), failing to evacuate in the face of storms and fires (Baker, 1991; Packham, 1995), and (barring a recent, vivid event) showing little support for measures that would manage or mitigate future hazards (Kunreuther, 2006a, 2006b; Weber, 2006). We will also consider the

  2. The Mapping of Temporary Evacuation Site (TES) and Tsunami Evacuation Route in North Pagai Island, Mentawai Islands Regency - Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, Aprizon; Mutmainah, Herdiana

    2016-11-01

    Mentawai Islands Regency, especially north Pagai island, suffered two earthquakes on April 15 2016. The local government in cooperation with the relevant parties had tried to minimize casualties before the disaster or during the disaster by making an evacuation route to the TES. The purpose of this study was to the mapping of TES and tsunami evacuation route using the approach of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for disaster mitigation of tsunami-potential earthquake in north Pagai island.The research was conducted at 3 locations in the coast of Sikakap village, 4 locations in the coast of Taikako village, 3 locations in the coast of Silabu village, 7 locations in the coast of Saumanganya village, and 3 locations in the coast of Matobe village. The effort taken was to evacuate people to the TES with an average distance of 372.62 m from the beach. The results showed that the feasibility of TES that could accommodate residents, among others, were in the hills behind Sikakap Port, Taikako Silaoinan hills, the hills near the Mapinang Silabu village chief's office and Mapinang hills, Gulukguluk Saumanganya and Panatarat Matobe hills.

  3. Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

  4. Rapid health assessments of evacuation centres in areas affected by Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Alma Ramos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Typhoon Haiyan caused thousands of deaths and catastrophic destruction, leaving many homeless in Region 8 of the Philippines. A team from the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program conducted a rapid health assessment survey of evacuation centres severely affected by Haiyan. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted whereby a convenience sample of evacuation centres were assessed on the number of toilets per evacuee, sanitation, drinking-water, food supply source and medical services. Results: Of the 20 evacuation centres assessed, none had a designated manager. Most were located in schools (70% with the estimated number of evacuees ranging from 15 to 5000 per centre. Only four (20% met the World Health Organization standard for number of toilets per evacuee; none of the large evacuation centres had even half the recommended number of toilets. All of the evacuation centres had available drinking-water. None of the evacuation centres had garbage collection, vector control activities or standby medical teams. Fourteen (70% evacuation centres had onsite vaccination activities for measles, tetanus and polio virus. Many evacuation centres were overcrowded. Conclusion: Evacuation centres are needed in almost every disaster. They should be safely located and equipped with the required amenities. In disaster-prone areas such as the Philippines, schools and community centres should not be designated as evacuation centres unless they are equipped with adequate sanitation services.

  5. Empirical microeconomics action functionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Tanputraman, Winson

    2015-06-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is modeled by an action functional-and the focus of this paper is to empirically determine the action functionals for different commodities. The correlation functions of the model are defined using a Feynman path integral. The model is calibrated using the unequal time correlation of the market commodity prices as well as their cubic and quartic moments using a perturbation expansion. The consistency of the perturbation expansion is verified by a numerical evaluation of the path integral. Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are studied and their market behavior is described by the model to an accuracy of over 90% using only six parameters. The paper empirically establishes the existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (2013).

  6. Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

    2010-01-01

    Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

  7. Long term mental health outcomes of Finnish children evacuated to Swedish families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Betancourt, Theresa S; Gilman, Stephen E

    2015-01-05

    To compare the risks of admission to hospital for any type of psychiatric disorder and for four specific psychiatric disorders among adults who as children were evacuated to Swedish foster families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings, and to evaluate whether these risks differ between the sexes. Cohort study. National child evacuation scheme in Finland during the second world war. Children born in Finland between 1933 and 1944 who were later included in a 10% sample of the 1950 Finnish census ascertained in 1997 (n = 45,463; women: n = 22,021; men: n = 23,442). Evacuees in the sample were identified from war time government records. Adults admitted to hospital for psychiatric disorders recorded between 1971 and 2011 in the Finnish hospital discharge register. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between evacuation to temporary foster care in Sweden during the second world war and admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder between ages 38 and 78 years. Fixed effects methods were employed to control for all unobserved social and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Among men and women combined, the risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder did not differ between Finnish adults evacuated to Swedish foster families and their non-evacuated siblings (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.26). Evidence suggested a lower risk of admission for any mental disorder (0.67, 0.44 to 1.03) among evacuated men, whereas for women there was no association between evacuation and the overall risk of admission for a psychiatric disorder (1.21, 0.80 to 1.83). When admissions for individual psychiatric disorders were analyzed, evacuated girls were significantly more likely than their non-evacuated sisters to be admitted to hospital for a mood disorder as an adult (2.19, 1.10 to 4.33). The Finnish evacuation policy was not associated with an increased overall risk of admission to hospital

  8. The Group Evacuation Behavior Based on Fire Effect in the Complicated Three-Dimensional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to effectively depict the group evacuation behavior in the complicated three-dimensional space, a novel pedestrian flow model is proposed with three-dimensional cellular automata. In this model the calculation methods of floor field and fire gain are elaborated at first, and the transition gain of target position at the next moment is defined. Then, in consideration of pedestrian intimacy and velocity change, the group evacuation strategy and evolution rules are given. Finally, the experiments were conducted with the simulation platform to study the relationships of evacuation time, pedestrian density, average system velocity, and smoke spreading velocity. The results had shown that large-scale group evacuation should be avoided, and in case of large pedestrian density, the shortest route of evacuation strategy would extend system evacuation time.

  9. Incorporating emergency evacuation planning, through human reliability analysis, in the risk management of industrial installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A. Luquetti; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: luquetti@ien.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    An industrial installation presents many risks in the form of the process hazards, such as fire, explosion, gas and radiation release. In these situations, workers may need to evacuate from the work environment as soon as possible. In this case, the emergency evacuation planning is a key element that involves an iterative process to identify the best evacuation routes and to estimate the time required to evacuate the area at risk. The mean aspects for a successful emergency evacuation are influenced by the type of human error and the severity of the initiator event. The aim of this paper is to present a methodological framework for the identification of the performance shaping factors and prediction of human error probabilities of the responsible by the emergency evacuation of the workers in an industrial installation, providing a proactive approach for the allocation of the human factors in the risk assessment of the industrial installation. (author)

  10. Enhancing Evacuation Plans with a Situation Awareness System Based on End-User Knowledge Provision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Morales

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent disasters have shown that having clearly defined preventive procedures and decisions is a critical component that minimizes evacuation hazards and ensures a rapid and successful evolution of evacuation plans. In this context, we present our Situation-Aware System for enhancing Evacuation Plans (SASEP system, which allows creating end-user business rules that technically support the specific events, conditions and actions related to evacuation plans. An experimental validation was carried out where 32 people faced a simulated emergency situation, 16 of them using SASEP and the other 16 using a legacy system based on static signs. From the results obtained, we compare both techniques and discuss in which situations SASEP offers a better evacuation route option, confirming that it is highly valuable when there is a threat in the evacuation route. In addition, a study about user satisfaction using both systems is presented showing in which cases the systems are assessed as satisfactory, relevant and not frustrating.

  11. Evacuation apparatus with cryogenic pump and trap assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahl, G.

    1980-01-01

    An evacuation apparatus comprising a vessel defining a vacuum chamber therein, vacuumizing means communicating with an opening to said vacuum chamber for selectively drawing a vacuum therein comprising cryogenic pump means disposed closely adjacent to said opening and defined by substantial cryogenically cooled trap surfaces for freezing-out water vapor from air evacuated from said vacuum chamber, said opening being common to said vacuum chamber and to said cryogenic pump means, valve means for selectively opening or closing the opening to said vacuum chamber and movable from a first position within said cryogenic pump means closing said opening to a second position within said cryogenic pump means directly exposing said vacuum chamber to said cryogenic pump means, through said opening, baffle means disposed closely adjacent to the opening to said vacuum chamber for providing substantial open communication to said vacuum chamber and for substantially preventing ingress of contaminants into said vacuum chamber, said baffle means being positioned to provide an optically dense view of said opening when viewed from a downstream side of said baffle means, and a plurality of longitudinally spaced and cryogenically cooled fins mounted in nested relationship within said baffle means and disposed in out-of-contact relationship therewith, said fins being positioned to provide an optically dense view of the downstream side of said baffle means when viewed from said openings. The cryogenic pump is adapted for use in an evacuation apparatus comprising a housing defining an opening to a vacuum chamber, a plurality of metallic plates defining a first chamber therein communicating with said vacuum chamber through said opening and further defining a second chamber at least partially surrounding said first chamber and adapted to be at least partially filled with a cryogenic liqui.d

  12. CT-guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive intracerebral hematomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondo, Hideki

    1983-01-01

    Computerized tomography (CT) is now effective not only for definite diagnosis and location of intracerebral hematomas but also for coordination of the center of a hematoma. CT-guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive intracerebral hematoma was performed in 51 cases: 34 of basal ganglionic hematoma with or without ventricular perforation, 11 of subcortical hematoma, 3 of thalamic hematoma and 3 of cerebellar hematoma. Three dimensional CT images or biplane CT images were taken to determine the coordinates of the target point, which was the center of the hematoma. Then, a silicon tube (O.D. 3.5 phi, I.D. 2.1 phi) was inserted into the center of the hematoma through a burr-hole under local anesthesia, and the liquid or solid hematoma was aspirated as completely as possible with a syringe. Urokinase (6,000 I.U./5 ml saline) was administered through this silicon tube every 6 or 12 hours for several days until the hematoma had drained out competely. The silicon tube was taken out when repeated CT scanning revealed no hematoma. The results of clinical follow-ups indicated that this procedure is as good as, or rather better than conventional microsurgery with evacuation of hematoma under direct vision. Moreover this CT-guided stereotactic approach for evacuation of the hematoma has the following advantages: 1) the procedure is simple and safe, 2) operation can be performed under local anesthesia, and 3) the hematoma is drained out completely with the aid of urokinase. This surgery seems indicated as an emergency treatment for high-age or high risk patients and also as a routine surgery for intracerebral hematomas in patients showing no herination signs. (author)

  13. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF AN EVACUATION FROM A TSUNAMI AT PARANGTRITIS BEACH IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radianta Triatmadja

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The tsunami disaster in Calang (Aceh, Indonesia in December 2004 caused traffic jam at a bottleneck on an evacuation road that was fatal, killing most of the evacuees. This tragedy provides an invaluable lesson for evacuation planning in several other locations that are prone to tsunami events. Parangtritis is a local tourism destination that is also prone to tsunami hazard. Although the evacuation routes have been prepared and evacuation direction sign boards have been provided, a study on their capacity and suitability were required. One of the methods was employing mathematical simulations. This paper addresses the development of a mathematical model based on the Dijkstra algorithm and its application to evacuation during a tsunami at Parangtritis Beach, Indonesia. The running speeds of evacuees were derived from world athletes’ running records but with significantly lower coefficients to model ordinary people. Trial runs were also carried out to calibrate the value of f that represented the ratio between running speed on the certain route and on well paved, horizontal and obstacle free road. The results suggested that the existing evacuation routes were not sufficient and that the direction of evacuation need adjustment. It was found that relatively slower runners that were in front of faster runners would potentially decrease the average evacuation speed. Vertical evacuation routes, such as along steep hills or high buildings, must be wide enough (to ensure a low crowd density and easily accessible (to ensure a higher evacuation route speed to avoid traffic jams. The number of people to be evacuated and road condition are vital factors to determine the evacuation routes to the selected shelters.

  14. Hypothermia for Patients Requiring Evacuation of Subdural Hematoma: Effect on Spreading Depolarizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    randomized multi-center clinical study of very early hypothermia in patients with traumatic brain injury who require emergent surgical evacuation of a...injury (TBI) patients undergoing surgical evacuation of acute subdural hematomas (ASDH). The study is conducted under Exception From Informed Consent...electrode arrays will be placed on the brain after surgical ASDH evacuation, and spreading depolarizations will be monitored during the post-operative

  15. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, Shuhei; Gilmour, Stuart; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Yoneoka, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Amina; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Kami, Masahiro; Shibuya, Kenji

    2013-01-01

    Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49). There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76) to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76). No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49). High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  16. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  17. Nonlinear Effects in Examples of Crowd Evacuation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens; Berg Thomsen, Kristian; Sørensen, Asger

    2014-01-01

    Severe accidents with many fatalities have occurred when too many pedestrians had to maneuver in too tight surroundings, as during evacuations of mass events. This demonstrates the importance of a better general understanding of pedestrians and emergent complex behavior in crowds. To this end, we...... of an emergency exit on the flux through the exit, and second, the influence of other pedestrians on the route choice of an individual. The first investigation demonstrates the possibility of improving substantially the flow through an exit by placing an obstacle in a suitable way in front of it. The latter shows...

  18. Welfare and evacuation sub-plan: APTCARE - Lucas Heights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-11-01

    This Sub-plan has been prepared as a contingency plan to the APTCARE document - A plan to cope with an accident at the Australian Atomic Energy Commission's Research Establishment at Lucas Heights. It details procedures to be followed for the evacuation and welfare of citizens residing in areas outside the Commission's establishment in the event that their health or safety is threatened by reason of an accident at the nuclear reactor facility which could have off-site implications. Additionally, it lists roles and tasking assignments of various counter-disaster response and support agencies in such an occurrence

  19. Analysis of evacuation procedure after the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murayama, T.; Iizuka, F.; El-Asaad, H. [Tokyo Inst. of Tech., Tokyo (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    After the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 struck the coast of Eastern Japan, evacuation procedures were undermined due to the unexpected magnitude and severity of the disaster. Also, communications between local and national government were weakened, leading to dismemberment between society and government. Consequently this left the affected people without sufficient information or updates regarding evacuation procedures. This paper will concentrate on evacuation procedures led by locating residents with the help of media outlets (local newspapers and news reports). Analyzing movements of evacuees will help improve the evacuation method both for local residents and government bodies. (author)

  20. Spatial memory enhances the evacuation efficiency of virtual pedestrians under poor visibility condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng; Kwok Kit Yuen, Richard

    2018-03-01

    Spatial memory is a critical navigation support tool for disoriented evacuees during evacuation under adverse environmental conditions such as dark or smoky conditions. Owing to the complexity of memory, it is challenging to understand the effect of spatial memory on pedestrian evacuation quantitatively. In this study, we propose a simple method to quantitatively represent the evacueeʼs spatial memory about the emergency exit, model the evacuation of pedestrians under the guidance of the spatial memory, and investigate the effect of the evacueeʼs spatial memory on the evacuation from theoretical and physical perspectives. The result shows that (i) a good memory can significantly assist the evacuation of pedestrians under poor visibility conditions, and the evacuation can always succeed when the degree of the memory exceeds a threshold (\\varphi > 0.5); (ii) the effect of memory is superior to that of “follow-the-crowd” under the same environmental conditions; (iii) in the case of multiple exits, the difference in the degree of the memory between evacuees has a significant effect (the greater the difference, the faster the evacuation) for the evacuation under poor visibility conditions. Our study provides a new quantitative insight into the effect of spatial memory on crowd evacuation under poor visibility conditions. Project supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Grant No. 11203615).

  1. Comparative Analysis and Pedestrian Simulation Evaluation on Emergency Evacuation Test Methods for Urban Rail Transit Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zijia Wang

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The emergency evacuation test method of rail transit station not only affects the operation safety of the station, but it also has significant influence on the scale and cost of the station. A reasonable test method should guarantee both the safety of evacuation and that the investment is neither excessive nor too conservative. The paper compares and analyzes the differences of the existing emergency evacuation test methods of rail stations in China and other regions on the evacuation load, evacuation time calculation and the capacity of egress components, etc. Based on the field survey analysis, the desired velocity distribution of pedestrians in various station facilities and the capacity of egress components have been obtained, and then the parameters of pedestrian simulation tool were calibrated. By selecting a station for the case study, an evacuation simulation model has been established, where five evacuation scenarios have been set according to different specifications and the simulation results have been carefully analyzed. Through analyzing the simulation results, some modification proposals of the current emergency evacuation test method in the design manual have been considered, including taking into account the section passenger volume, walking time on escalators and stairs of the platform, and the condition in which the escalator most critical to evacuation should be considered as out of service.

  2. Analysis of evacuation procedure after the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murayama, T.; Iizuka, F.; El-Asaad, H.

    2014-01-01

    After the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 struck the coast of Eastern Japan, evacuation procedures were undermined due to the unexpected magnitude and severity of the disaster. Also, communications between local and national government were weakened, leading to dismemberment between society and government. Consequently this left the affected people without sufficient information or updates regarding evacuation procedures. This paper will concentrate on evacuation procedures led by locating residents with the help of media outlets (local newspapers and news reports). Analyzing movements of evacuees will help improve the evacuation method both for local residents and government bodies. (author)

  3. Experience with alert and evacuation, Tarsiut Island, summer 1982

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townsend, D.L.; Myers, R.M.; Stewart, H.R.

    1983-11-01

    The original concept for Tarsiut Island considered that drilling operations in the Beaufort Sea would be done under ice covered conditions. Extension of drilling to summer open water conditions necessitated two major changes. Upgrading construction would be required to reduce the potential for scour at the base of the concrete caissons, and to increase freeboard protection from waves and spray. The Island Alert and Evacuation Manual also had to be changed. Depending upon the position of the permanent ice pack, the fetch for waves can change drastically. Weather changes are sudden. The principal changes in the alert system had to recognize that local direct decisions as well as short term forecasts would be needed. Warning was needed which recognized the influence of high winds upon helicopter operations. During the summer of 1982, two total evacuations of the Island were necessary due to the forecasted and observed weather conditions. There was minimal damage and no personal injury. The paper indicates the role of the Island Design Engineer in the co-ordination of monitoring activities, the various alert levels which were established for summer conditions, and summarizes the procedures carried out for the two successful operations.

  4. Study on estimation of evacuation distances for nuclear emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Sohei; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2005-09-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) have conducted the analytical studies on the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), the severe accidents, and the optimization of protective actions. Based on the results of these studies, JAERI are investigating the method for taking urgent protective actions more reasonably. If an accident occurs in a nuclear power plant (NPP), early protective actions are carried out. To implement these actions more effectively, emergency preparedness and emergency planning are important, and especially prompt evacuation is expected to reduce a large amount of radiation exposures. To examine the effect of early protective measures by using a PSA method, estimation of the parameter uncertainty related in the time for early protective actions is needed. For this purpose, we have developed an analytical method for urgent protective actions using geographic information, and estimated the movement distance based on gathering points arrangement an population distribution. For this analysis, we used the gathering point data shown on each regional plans for disaster prevention which will be used in actual emergency situation and targeted the population inside Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). By applying this method for the existing sixteen commercial NPP sites, we estimated the average value and distribution of the movement distance for each sites. This report provides a brief description of the method for estimating the movement distance, input data for this analysis, and the result. Moreover, the problem on the method of evacuation distance analysis and usefulness of this method for emergency planning were discussed. (author)

  5. Fire and evacuation drills make the CERN safety plans work

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2013-01-01

    Regular drills are a way of making sure that we are ready and able to react in the event of a fire or other adverse event. They are also a demanding test of all the technical and organisational measures in place to allow the quick and safe evacuation of buildings. Recently, large-scale drills took place in Building 40 and at Point 5 underground.   Group photo at Point 5, after the common evacuation drill. The ability to react to unexpected, adverse events relies in particular on training. This is why CERN’s safety teams organise regular drills. One of the most recent exercises took place on 26 March in Building 40. “Building 40 is a modern building fully equipped against fire, with two emergency exits in the central atrium. We also have 29 emergency guides distributed on each floor to guide people out of their offices,” says Kate Richardson, Territorial Safety Officer of the building. “The drills are very useful for testing the building's insta...

  6. Evacuating damaged and destroyed buildings on 9/11: behavioral and structural barriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groeger, Justina L; Stellman, Steven D; Kravitt, Alexandra; Brackbill, Robert M

    2013-12-01

    Evacuation of the World Trade Center (WTC) twin towers and surrounding buildings damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks provides a unique opportunity to study factors that affect emergency evacuation of high rise buildings. Problem The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which structural and behavioral barriers and limitations of personal mobility affected evacuation by occupants of affected buildings on September 11, 2001. This analysis included 5,023 civilian, adult enrollees within the World Trade Center Health Registry who evacuated the two World Trade Center towers and over 30 other Lower Manhattan buildings that were damaged or destroyed on September 11, 2001. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict total evacuation time (1 hour to barriers and number of behavioral barriers, adjusted for demographic and other factors. A higher percentage of evacuees reported encountering at least one behavioral barrier (84.9%) than reported at least one infrastructure barrier (51.9%). This pattern was consistent in all buildings except WTC 1, the first building attacked, where >90% of evacuees reported encountering both types of barriers. Smoke and poor lighting were the most frequently-reported structural barriers. Extreme crowding, lack of communication with officials, and being surrounded by panicked crowds were the most frequently-reported behavioral barriers. Multivariate analyses showed evacuation time to be independently associated with the number of each type of barrier as well as gender (longer times for women), but not with the floor from which evacuation began. After adjustment, personal mobility impairment was not associated with increased evacuation time. Because most high-rise buildings have unique designs, infrastructure factors tend to be less predictable than behavioral factors, but both need to be considered in developing emergency evacuation plans in order to decrease evacuation time and, consequently, risk of injury and death

  7. Predictors of uterine evacuation following early medical abortion with mifepristone and misoprostol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, Matthew F; Monmaney, Jessica A; Creinin, Mitchell D

    2016-02-01

    We sought to determine predictors of uterine evacuation for women undergoing medical abortion using mifepristone and vaginal misoprostol through 63 days' gestation. We pooled data from two prospective multicenter medical abortion trials. In one study, women received mifepristone 200 mg followed either 6-8 or 23-25 h later by misoprostol 800 mcg vaginally. In the second study, women received mifepristone 200 mg followed either misoprostol 800 mcg vaginally. We examined the absolute risk (AR) of uterine evacuation using Fisher's Exact Tests for categorical variables and Student t test and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests for continuous variables. We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) of uterine evacuation. Uterine evacuation was performed for 75 (3.5%) of 2160 women. In multivariable analysis, 5 or more prior deliveries (AR 11.9%, OR 4.6) and gestational age of 8 weeks or more (AR 4.1%, OR 2.1) were significantly associated with uterine evacuation, while age of 20 years or younger (AR 1.4%, OR 0.4) was significantly and inversely associated with uterine evacuation. Prior cesarean delivery, multiple gestations, smoking, weight, body surface area and body mass index were not predictive of uterine evacuation in univariate or multivariable analysis. Uterine evacuation is an uncommon outcome in medical abortion with mifepristone and vaginal misoprostol. Five or more deliveries are the only significant predictor that identifies a group with an AR of uterine evacuation of more than 6%. Uterine evacuation is uncommon in medical abortion with mifepristone and vaginal misoprostol. Parity of five or more is the only significant predictor of uterine evacuation exceeding 6%. Until additional research is completed, medical abortion should not be withheld from women with five or more deliveries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Effect of uncommon exit location in the emergency evacuation of transport airplanes

    OpenAIRE

    Martinez-Val Peñalosa, Rodrigo; Hedo Rodriguez, Jose Manuel

    2011-01-01

    The objective of the present paper is to show the effect of uncommon exit arrangement in the evacuation process of narrow-body airliners, from the point of view of emergency evacuation certification, using the ETSIA model. Two main possibilities will be considered: large longitudinal shifting of the main embarking/disembarking doors; and suppression of some over-the-wing exits.

  9. Simulating crowd evacuation with socio-cultural, cognitive, and emotional elements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wal, C. Natalie; Formolo, Daniel; Robinson, Mark A.; Minkov, Michael; Bosse, Tibor

    2017-01-01

    In this research, the effects of culture, cognitions, and emotions on crisis management and prevention are analysed. An agent-based crowd evacuation simulation model was created, named IMPACT, to study the evacuation process from a transport hub. To extend previous research, various socio-cultural,

  10. Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.

    2013-04-01

    Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

  11. 76 FR 43265 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Evacuation Movement and Behavior Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-20

    ... Collection; Comment Request; Evacuation Movement and Behavior Questionnaire AGENCY: National Institute of... data collection will consist of questionnaires that will be handed out to occupants who have evacuated... questionnaires is to obtain information (anonymously) on: (1) The background of the occupant (occupant...

  12. A comparison of various evaluation methods by means of camera-function scintigraphy of stomach evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haeussler, M.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this work is the study of the influence of hydrophilic matter in test diets on the stomach evacuation by the use of camera-function-scintigraphic methods and by the use of various evaluation procedures on a large collection of evacuation studies. With 10 healthy subjects who had received a mash-type test diet with 99m Tc DTPA without as well as with the addition of pectin and bran, there was no evident influence of the addition of hydrophilic matter on the stomach evacuation. For the evacuation function of 135 healthy subjects and patients with various stomach diseases exponential functions, lines, quadratic functions and 'gamma-variate' were fitted and valued according to their advantages and disadvantages. The evacuation curves of 88 of these subjects were evaluated additionally by the main component method. It was shown thereby that there was an initial accelerated evacuation in patients who had undergone a selective proximal vagotomy with pyrolo plastic, and a less evident and not always present accelerated evacuation in patients who had undergone a selective proximal vagotomy without pyrolo plastic. The main component method is only with restrictions suited for stomach evacuation studies in the framework of clinical diagnostic because of its great complexity. (TRV) [de

  13. Evacuation Route: Restoring the Railway Transportation of People During the Great Patriotic War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potemkina Marina Nikolaevna

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the role of the railway transport in migration from the frontline to the Soviet rear during the Great Patriotic War. The research is based on the analysis of the published and archival documents, personal diaries, letters, memoirs, texts of interview with the people who lived through the evacuation. The methodological foundation of the research was based on the theoretical principles made by the Everyday History. Surge attack of the German troops and cruel occupational policy caused the necessity of evacuation of civilians to the Eastern regions of the country. The evacuation was both spontaneous and organized and helped to save millions of human lives. The lack of evacuation plans in case of a war, incompleteness of the railway transport renovation, transport routes destroyed by the enemy and the stream of refugees were among the main factors which complicated evacuation process. The conditions of transportation differed according to the time and the circumstances of the evacuation and a person’s position in social hierarchy. There were some problems during the evacuation, such as regulation of the rail service, sanitation of the carriages, nutrition system, psychological shock. People had to spend weeks in the carriages suffering from cold, hunger and diseases. During the evacuation a new alternative reality appeared with its rules and regulations which changed the concepts of tangible assets and moral values. The priority for any person was to survive, which meant to be independent and to do everything possible.

  14. 5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

  15. Bilevel Traffic Evacuation Model and Algorithm Design for Large-Scale Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danwen Bao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a bilevel planning model with one master and multiple slaves to solve traffic evacuation problems. The minimum evacuation network saturation and shortest evacuation time are used as the objective functions for the upper- and lower-level models, respectively. The optimizing conditions of this model are also analyzed. An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO method is proposed by introducing an electromagnetism-like mechanism to solve the bilevel model and enhance its convergence efficiency. A case study is carried out using the Nanjing Olympic Sports Center. The results indicate that, for large-scale activities, the average evacuation time of the classic model is shorter but the road saturation distribution is more uneven. Thus, the overall evacuation efficiency of the network is not high. For induced emergencies, the evacuation time of the bilevel planning model is shortened. When the audience arrival rate is increased from 50% to 100%, the evacuation time is shortened from 22% to 35%, indicating that the optimization effect of the bilevel planning model is more effective compared to the classic model. Therefore, the model and algorithm presented in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the traffic-induced evacuation decision making of large-scale activities.

  16. Coordinating Hunger: The Evacuation of Children During the Dutch Food Crisis, 1945

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zwarte, I.

    2016-01-01

    The evacuation of Dutch children during the so-called ‘Hunger Winter’ of 1944/1945 is one of the canonized stories of the German occupation of the Netherlands. In the most common version of the story, a Dutch interdenominational organization managed to evacuate 40,000 to 50,000 starving children

  17. ALFIL: A Crowd Simulation Serious Game for Massive Evacuation Training and Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-García, César; Fernández-Robles, José Luis; Larios-Rosillo, Victor; Luga, Hervé

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the current development of a serious game for the simulation of massive evacuations. The purpose of this project is to promote self-protection through awareness of the procedures and different possible scenarios during the evacuation of a massive event. Sophisticated behaviors require massive computational power and it has…

  18. A new way to estimate the evacuation time for people involved in a building fire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

    2004-01-01

    A survey about evacuation models is given. The current available evacuation models based on hand calculations are tested during the survey. The objectives have been to analyze the existing hand calculating methods and thereby validate or may be, disqualify a model. The survey is based on comparis...

  19. Game-Based Evacuation Drill Using Augmented Reality and Head-Mounted Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Junya; Mitsuhara, Hiroyuki; Shishibori, Masami

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Evacuation drills should be more realistic and interactive. Focusing on situational and audio-visual realities and scenario-based interactivity, the authors have developed a game-based evacuation drill (GBED) system that presents augmented reality (AR) materials on tablet computers. The paper's current research purpose is to improve…

  20. SIDE-BY-SIDE TESTS OF DIFFERENTLY DESIGNED EVACUATED TUBULAR COLLECTORS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Jianhua; Dragsted, Janne; Furbo, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Six differently designed evacuated tubular collectors, ETCs, utilizing solar radiation from all directions, have been investigated experimentally. The evacuated tubular solar collectors investigated include one SLL all-glass ETC from Tshinghua Solar Co., four heat pipe ETCs from Sunda Technolgoy Co...

  1. Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.

    2005-01-01

    The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

  2. A generic method to optimize instructions for the control of evacuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibregtse, O.L.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Pel, A.J.; Bliemer, M.C.J.

    2010-01-01

    A method is described to develop a set of optimal instructions to evacuate by car the population of a region threatened by a hazard. By giving these instructions to the evacuees, traffic conditions and therefore the evacuation efficiency can be optimized. The instructions, containing a departure

  3. 78 FR 13325 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Research on Evacuating Persons With Mobility...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-27

    ... Collection; Comment Request; Research on Evacuating Persons With Mobility Impairments AGENCY: National... how building occupants with mobility impairments currently evacuate multi-story buildings in the United States during fire emergencies, and (2) to learn about the concerns of persons with mobility...

  4. The effect of tilt angle on the performance of evacuated tube solar air ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The evacuated tube solar air collector had different collector tilt angles from the horizontal with the one inclined at 30° and 45°. Experimental results revealed that tilt angle had significant influence on the thermal performance of the evacuated tube solar air collector along with or without reflector. Experiments also showed ...

  5. Improving an inherently stressful situation: the role of communication during wildfire evacuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Bruce. Schinder

    2011-01-01

    Wildfire evacuations are inherently stressful and homeowners have reported in previous studies that uncertainty over what is happening is perhaps one of the most stressful aspects. Although many difficult elements of evacuation cannot be mitigated and lives will certainly be disrupted, fire-management agencies can significantly reduce residents' uncertainty with...

  6. Legal Preparedness for Hurricane Sandy: Authority to Order Hospital Evacuation or Shelter-in-Place in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinty, Meghan D; Burke, Thomas A; Resnick, Beth A; Smith, Katherine C; Barnett, Daniel J; Rutkow, Lainie

    2016-01-01

    Hospitals were once thought to be places of refuge during catastrophic hurricanes, but recent disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy have demonstrated that some hospitals are unable to ensure the safety of patients and staff and the continuity of medical care at key times. The government has a duty to safeguard public health and a responsibility to ensure that appropriate protective action is taken when disasters threaten or impair the ability of hospitals to sustain essential services. The law can enable the government to fulfill this duty by providing necessary authority to order preventive or reactive responses--such as ordering evacuation of or sheltering-in-place in hospitals--when safety is imperiled. We systematically identified and analyzed state emergency preparedness laws that could have affected evacuation of and sheltering-in-place in hospitals in order to characterize the public health legal preparedness of 4 states (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York) in the mid-Atlantic region during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. At that time, none of these 4 states had enacted statutes or regulations explicitly granting the government the authority to order hospitals to shelter-in-place. Whereas all 4 states had enacted laws explicitly enabling the government to order evacuation, the nature of this authority and the individuals empowered to execute it varied. We present empirical analyses intended to enhance public health legal preparedness and ensure these states and others are better able to respond to future natural disasters, which are predicted to be more severe and frequent as a result of climate change, as well as other hazards. States can further improve their readiness for catastrophic disasters by ensuring explicit statutory authority to order evacuation and to order sheltering-in-place, particularly of hospitals, where it does not currently exist.

  7. A sigmoid model to predict gastric evacuation rates of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieui fed juvenile salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Jean Beyer; Burley , Craig C.

    1991-01-01

    Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine the effects of water temperature, predator size, prey size, and prey number on gastric evacuation of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) fed juvenile salmon. The smallmouth bass were allowed to feed voluntarily after 24–48 h of starvation and stomachs were pumped at intervals of 1–4 h until 90% of the stomach contents were evacuated (E90). Evacuation approximated an S-shaped curve over time, and a sigmoid model was developed to predict evacuation at varying water temperatures, total meal weights, predator sizes, and prey number. The rate of evacuation increased with increasing water temperature, meal weight, or predator size. The E90 increased with larger meal weights but decreased with increasing temperature or predator size. E90 ranged between 4 and 95 h, depending upon conditions. E90 was slower than those estimated previously for another predator of salmon, the stomachless northern squawfish (Ptychocheilus oregonensis).

  8. War casualties: recent trends in evacuation, triage and the golden hour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safdar, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Prompt medical treatment and early evacuation is the goal of military medicine in the battlefield. 'Triage' is a process of sorting the casualties according to the severity of injury and the prioritization of treatment. In trauma management 'Golden Hour' is the first sixty minutes or so after injury; this emphasizes that the chances of the victim's survival are the greatest if definitive care is given as early as possible. Our evacuation protocols follow the triage but the time to treatment is beyond sixty minutes. Many Armies have developed evacuation systems which allow the casualty to be seen within this specified time. This has been achieved by streamlining the evacuation chain, extensive incorporation of air transport and training of paramedics in advanced life support measures. In line with the modern trends we need to modernize our own system of casualty evacuation and treatment. (author)

  9. Emergency evacuation models in subway service systems: An application on Izmir (Turkey subway system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökçe Baysal Türkölmez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Increasing population in crowded cities causes transportation problems. Public transportation is an effective solution for the crowded traffic. Subway is a fast and productive alternative for public transportation so it is a highly preferable choice in others. It is hard to evacuate people in subway station during a disaster in carriages, on subway line or in subway stations because subway systems are often located underground, a lot people use it at the same time and enter-exit gates are controlled by turnstiles. It is crucially important to know the evacuation time of people from subway. In this paper, Konak station, one of the most crowded stations of Izmir Subway System is analyzed by emergency evacuation models. The evacuation process is simulated by Simulex software. The emergency evacuation problem is modeled in three different scenarios. Solution offers are developed for them.

  10. Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apatu, Emma J. I.; Gregg, Chris E.; Wood, Nathan J.; Wang, Liang

    2016-01-01

    Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

  11. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2016-01-01

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study

  13. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  14. Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priest, George R.; Stimely, Laura; Wood, Nathan J.; Madin, Ian; Watzig, Rudie

    2016-01-01

    Previous pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunamis has not considered variable wave arrival times or critical junctures (e.g., bridges), nor does it effectively communicate multiple evacuee travel speeds. We summarize an approach that identifies evacuation corridors, recognizes variable wave arrival times, and produces a map of minimum pedestrian travel speeds to reach safety, termed a “beat-the-wave” (BTW) evacuation analysis. We demonstrate the improved approach by evaluating difficulty of pedestrian evacuation of Seaside, Oregon, for a local tsunami generated by a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. We establish evacuation paths by calculating the least cost distance (LCD) to safety for every grid cell in a tsunami-hazard zone using geospatial, anisotropic path distance algorithms. Minimum BTW speed to safety on LCD paths is calculated for every grid cell by dividing surface distance from that cell to safety by the tsunami arrival time at safety. We evaluated three scenarios of evacuation difficulty: (1) all bridges are intact with a 5-minute evacuation delay from the start of earthquake, (2) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 5-minute delay, and (3) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 10-minute delay. BTW maps also take into account critical evacuation points along complex shorelines (e.g., peninsulas, bridges over shore-parallel estuaries) where evacuees could be caught by tsunami waves. The BTW map is able to communicate multiple pedestrian travel speeds, which are typically visualized by multiple maps with current LCD-based mapping practices. Results demonstrate that evacuation of Seaside is problematic seaward of the shore-parallel waterways for those with any limitations on mobility. Tsunami vertical-evacuation refuges or additional pedestrian bridges may be effective ways of reducing loss of life seaward of these waterways.

  15. The effect of meal size on gastric evacuation in whiting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    1998-01-01

    Gastric evacuation experiments were performed on whiting Merlangius merlangus fed discrete meals of different sizes. Herring Clupea harengus, sandeel Ammodytes tobianus, common goby Pomatoschistus microps, and brown shrimp Crangon crangon were tested as prey. A simple power model to describe gast...... into account in the estimation procedure by expressing stomach contents relative to meal size. (C) 1998 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.......36-0.77 for the different prey. The power estimates in the simple model were generally close to 0.5. The exception was crustacean prey, which gave a higher value. In the simple model the power estimate represents a compromise between the curvatures of the curves fitted to the observations for each meal size...

  16. Real-time micro-modelling of city evacuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löhner, Rainald; Haug, Eberhard; Zinggerling, Claudio; Oñate, Eugenio

    2018-01-01

    A methodology to integrate geographical information system (GIS) data with large-scale pedestrian simulations has been developed. Advances in automatic data acquisition and archiving from GIS databases, automatic input for pedestrian simulations, as well as scalable pedestrian simulation tools have made it possible to simulate pedestrians at the individual level for complete cities in real time. An example that simulates the evacuation of the city of Barcelona demonstrates that this is now possible. This is the first step towards a fully integrated crowd prediction and management tool that takes into account not only data gathered in real time from cameras, cell phones or other sensors, but also merges these with advanced simulation tools to predict the future state of the crowd.

  17. PYRONES: pyro-modeling and evacuation simulation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanellos, Tassos; Doulgerakis, Adam; Georgiou, Eftichia; Kountouriotis, Vassilios I.; Paterakis, Manolis; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.; Pappou, Theodora; Vrahliotis, Socrates I.; Rekouniotis, Thrasos; Protopsaltis, Byron; Rozenberg, Ofir; Livneh, Ofer

    2016-05-01

    Structural fires continue to pose a great threat towards human life and property. Due to the complexity and non-deterministic characteristics of a building fire disaster, it is not a straightforward task to assess the effectiveness of fire protection measures embedded in the building design, planned evacuation strategies and potential modes of response for mitigating the fire's consequences. Additionally, there is a lack of means that realistically and accurately recreate the conditions of building fire disasters for the purpose of training personnel in order to be sufficiently prepared when vis-a-vis with such an environment. The propagation of fire within a building, the diffusion of its volatile products, the behavior of the occupants and the sustained injuries not only exhibit non-linear behaviors as individual phenomena, but are also intertwined in a web of co-dependencies. The PYRONES system has been developed to address all these aspects through a comprehensive approach that relies on accurate and realistic computer simulations of the individual phenomena and their interactions. PYRONES offers innovative tools and services to strategically targeted niches in two market domains. In the domain of building design and engineering, PYRONES is seamlessly integrated within existing engineering Building Information Modelling (BIM) workflows and serves as a building performance assessment platform, able to evaluate fire protection systems. On another front, PYRONES penetrates the building security management market, serving as a holistic training platform for specialists in evacuation strategy planning, firefighters and first responders, both at a Command and Control and at an individual trainee level.

  18. Final Technical Report for Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models, DE-FG02-07ER64429

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smyth, Padhraic [University of California, Irvine

    2013-07-22

    This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.

  19. EMPIRIC FINDINGS OF THE ANALYSIS IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NORTH-EAST REGION - ROMANIA - EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian‐Alexandru CONDRATOV

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to present a comparative analysis of the evolution of various statistical indicators that describe the situation of youth unemployment (population category 15-24 years in the European Union (28 member states and the North -East Romania. In order to ensure comparability of data in the European Union, Romania and the North- East we have used the data presented by Eurostat from the centralization of information relating to the labor force survey in the European Union (EU Labour Force Survey - regional statistics at NUTS 2 level and covers the period 2007-2013. The analysis highlighted the degree of convergence of the indicators that describe the unemployment situation and the influencing factors in the three territorial units: unemployment, activity rate and correlation dynamics in economic and demographic conditions.

  20. Empirical Test Case Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Heiselberg, Per

    This document includes the empirical specification on the IEA task of evaluation building energy simulation computer programs for the Double Skin Facades (DSF) constructions. There are two approaches involved into this procedure, one is the comparative approach and another is the empirical one. I....... In the comparative approach the outcomes of different software tools are compared, while in the empirical approach the modelling results are compared with the results of experimental test cases....

  1. A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulei Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities.

  2. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yago Martín

    Full Text Available Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  3. An interval-parameter mixed integer multi-objective programming for environment-oriented evacuation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. Z.; Huang, G. H.; Yan, X. P.; Cai, Y. P.; Li, Y. P.

    2010-05-01

    Large crowds are increasingly common at political, social, economic, cultural and sports events in urban areas. This has led to attention on the management of evacuations under such situations. In this study, we optimise an approximation method for vehicle allocation and route planning in case of an evacuation. This method, based on an interval-parameter multi-objective optimisation model, has potential for use in a flexible decision support system for evacuation management. The modeling solutions are obtained by sequentially solving two sub-models corresponding to lower- and upper-bounds for the desired objective function value. The interval solutions are feasible and stable in the given decision space, and this may reduce the negative effects of uncertainty, thereby improving decision makers' estimates under different conditions. The resulting model can be used for a systematic analysis of the complex relationships among evacuation time, cost and environmental considerations. The results of a case study used to validate the proposed model show that the model does generate useful solutions for planning evacuation management and practices. Furthermore, these results are useful for evacuation planners, not only in making vehicle allocation decisions but also for providing insight into the tradeoffs among evacuation time, environmental considerations and economic objectives.

  4. A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Thomas, Neil [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

  5. Transit-Based Emergency Evacuation with Transit Signal Priority in Sudden-Onset Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciyun Lin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents methods of transit signal priority without transit-only lanes for a transit-based emergency evacuation in a sudden-onset disaster. Arterial priority signal coordination is optimized when a traffic signal control system provides priority signals for transit vehicles along an evacuation route. Transit signal priority is determined by “transit vehicle arrival time estimation,” “queuing vehicle dissipation time estimation,” “traffic signal status estimation,” “transit signal optimization,” and “arterial traffic signal coordination for transit vehicle in evacuation route.” It takes advantage of the large capacities of transit vehicles, reduces the evacuation time, and evacuates as many evacuees as possible. The proposed methods were tested on a simulation platform with Paramics V6.0. To evaluate and compare the performance of transit signal priority, three scenarios were simulated in the simulator. The results indicate that the methods of this study can reduce the travel times of transit vehicles along an evacuation route by 13% and 10%, improve the standard deviation of travel time by 16% and 46%, and decrease the average person delay at a signalized intersection by 22% and 17% when the traffic flow saturation along an evacuation route is 0.81.0, respectively.

  6. Evacuation of the ICU: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Mary A; Niven, Alexander S; Beninati, William; Fang, Ray; Einav, Sharon; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D; Grissom, Colin K

    2014-10-01

    Despite the high risk for patient harm during unanticipated ICU evacuations, critical care providers receive little to no training on how to perform safe and effective ICU evacuations. We reviewed the pertinent published literature and offer suggestions for the critical care provider regarding ICU evacuation. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. The Evacuation and Mobilization topic panel used the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop seven key questions for which specific literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Based on current best evidence, we provide 13 suggestions outlining a systematic approach to prepare for and execute an effective ICU evacuation during a disaster. Interhospital and intrahospital collaboration and functional ICU communication are critical for success. Pre-event planning and preparation are required for a no-notice evacuation. A Critical Care Team Leader must be designated within the Hospital Incident Command System. A three-stage ICU Evacuation Timeline, including (1) no immediate threat, (2) evacuation threat, and (3) evacuation implementation, should be used. Detailed suggestions on ICU evacuation, including regional planning, evacuation drills, patient transport preparation and equipment, patient prioritization and distribution for evacuation, patient information and tracking, and federal and international evacuation assistance systems, are also provided. Successful ICU evacuation during a disaster requires active preparation, participation

  7. Aero-medical evacuation from the second Israel-Lebanon war: a descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Dagan; Resheff, Avram; Geftler, Alex; Weiss, Aviram; Birenbaum, Erez; Lavon, Ophir

    2009-05-01

    The second Lebanon war started as a limited operation and progressed to a large-scale campaign. Most of the fighting took place in mountainous villages and small towns inhabited with civilians. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Airborne rescue and evacuation unit is charged with air evacuation of soldiers and civilians in times of peace, limited conflict, and war. We describe this unit's activities in the second Lebanon war, analyzing injury, treatment, and evacuation characteristics Data were collected from flight medical reports, debriefings of aero-medical team members (usually immediately upon return from mission), ground units medical reports and debriefings, and hospital records. 725 IDF soldiers were injured and 117 killed either in Lebanon or near the Israeli-Lebanese border during the war. A total of 338 (46%) were evacuated in 95 airlifts (averaging 4.5 evacuees per airlift) from the fighting zones or the border. Air evacuation used dedicated helicopters with advanced care capacities, and most victims were evacuated straight from the battlefield, as the fighting was ensuing. Many wounded first received advanced medical care upon the arrival of the aero-medical teams. In military operations within civilian populated areas with threats to ground transport, air evacuation can sometimes be the only readily available option. Providing timely ground advanced medical care proved difficult in many instances. Thus, for many, the rescue helicopter was the first point of access to such care. Aero-medical aircrafts and personnel faced threats from gunfire and missiles, causing both delays in evacuation and a high average number of evacuees per airlift. This article proposes ways of coping with situations in which similar rescue and evacuation problems are likely.

  8. Public assessment of the usefulness of "draft" tsunami evacuation maps from Sydney, Australia – implications for the establishment of formal evacuation plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Australia is at risk from tsunamis and recent work has identified the need for models to assess the vulnerability of exposed coastal areas – a fundamental element of the risk management process. Outputs of vulnerability assessment can be used as a baseline for the generation of tsunami prevention and mitigation measures, including evacuation maps. Having noted that no evacuation maps exist for Manly, Sydney (an area recently subjected to high resolution building vulnerability assessment by Dall'Osso et al., 2009b, we use the results of the analysis by Dall'Osso et al. (2009b to "draft" tsunami evacuation maps that could be used by the local emergency service organisations. We then interviewed 500 permanent residents of Manly in order to gain a rapid assessment on their views about the potential usefulness of the draft evacuation maps we generated. Results of the survey indicate that residents think the maps are useful and understandable, and include insights that should be considered by local government planners and emergency risk management specialists during the development of official evacuation maps (and plans in the future.

  9. Implementation of metal-friendly EAM/FS-type semi-empirical potentials in HOOMD-blue: A GPU-accelerated molecular dynamics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lin; Zhang, Feng; Wang, Cai-Zhuang; Ho, Kai-Ming; Travesset, Alex

    2018-04-01

    We present an implementation of EAM and FS interatomic potentials, which are widely used in simulating metallic systems, in HOOMD-blue, a software designed to perform classical molecular dynamics simulations using GPU accelerations. We first discuss the details of our implementation and then report extensive benchmark tests. We demonstrate that single-precision floating point operations efficiently implemented on GPUs can produce sufficient accuracy when compared against double-precision codes, as demonstrated in test simulations of calculations of the glass-transition temperature of Cu64.5Zr35.5, and pair correlation function g (r) of liquid Ni3Al. Our code scales well with the size of the simulating system on NVIDIA Tesla M40 and P100 GPUs. Compared with another popular software LAMMPS running on 32 cores of AMD Opteron 6220 processors, the GPU/CPU performance ratio can reach as high as 4.6. The source code can be accessed through the HOOMD-blue web page for free by any interested user.

  10. Maximum Smoke Temperature in Non-Smoke Model Evacuation Region for Semi-Transverse Tunnel Fire

    OpenAIRE

    B. Lou; Y. Qiu; X. Long

    2017-01-01

    Smoke temperature distribution in non-smoke evacuation under different mechanical smoke exhaust rates of semi-transverse tunnel fire were studied by FDS numerical simulation in this paper. The effect of fire heat release rate (10MW 20MW and 30MW) and exhaust rate (from 0 to 160m3/s) on the maximum smoke temperature in non-smoke evacuation region was discussed. Results show that the maximum smoke temperature in non-smoke evacuation region decreased with smoke exhaust rate. Plug-holing was obse...

  11. Integration of social vulnerability into emergency management plans: designing of evacuation routes against flood disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods are highly spatio-temporal localized flood events characterized by reaching a high peak flow in a very short period of time, i.e., generally with times of concentration lower than six hours. Its short duration, which limits or even voids any warning time, means that flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk, either in terms of the number of people affected globally or the proportion of individual fatalities. The above highlights the importance of a realistic and appropriate design of evacuation strategies in order to reduce flood-related losses, being evacuation planning considered of critical importance for disaster management. Traditionally, evacuation maps have been based on flood-prone areas, shelters or emergency residences location and evacuation routes information. However, evacuation plans rarely consider the spatial distribution of vulnerable population (i.e., people with special needs, mobility constraints or economic difficulties), which usually require assistance from emergency responders. The goal of this research is to elaborate an evacuation map against the occurrence of flash floods by combining geographic information (e.g. roads, health facilities location, sanitary helicopters) and social vulnerability patterns, which are previously obtained from socioeconomic variables (e.g. population, unemployment, dwelling characteristics). To do this, ArcGis Network Analyst tool is used, which allows to calculate the optimal evacuation routes. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2). Urban areas prone to flash flooding are identified taking into account the following requirements: i) city centers are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1; ii) city centers are potentially affected by flash floods; and iii) city centers are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability

  12. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Jesús M; Carrera, Álvaro; Iglesias, Carlos Á; Serrano, Emilio

    2016-08-24

    Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones) with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  13. DESIGN OF AUTOMATED CONTROL SYSTEM EVACUATION IN AN EMERGENCY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Valeev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the objectives of the management of infrastructure facilities is to ensure efficient evacuation in an emergency. The problem of the evacuation is related to the heterogeneity of data, its’ large volume, the loss of part of the information infrastructure under the influence of destructive factors. The concept design of the automated evacuation control system based on system engineering is considered. It involves the use of a systematic approach, modern information technologies, as well as simulation. The actuality of the use of technology solutions for big data management tasks in real time is proved. As a tool for distributed processing, cluster prototype with low power consumption computers is proposed.

  14. A markov decision process model for the optimal dispatch of military medical evacuation assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keneally, Sean K; Robbins, Matthew J; Lunday, Brian J

    2016-06-01

    We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine aerial military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatch policies in a combat environment. The problem of deciding which aeromedical asset to dispatch to each service request is complicated by the threat conditions at the service locations and the priority class of each casualty event. We assume requests for MEDEVAC support arrive sequentially, with the location and the priority of each casualty known upon initiation of the request. The United States military uses a 9-line MEDEVAC request system to classify casualties as being one of three priority levels: urgent, priority, and routine. Multiple casualties can be present at a single casualty event, with the highest priority casualty determining the priority level for the casualty event. Moreover, an armed escort may be required depending on the threat level indicated by the 9-line MEDEVAC request. The proposed MDP model indicates how to optimally dispatch MEDEVAC helicopters to casualty events in order to maximize steady-state system utility. The utility gained from servicing a specific request depends on the number of casualties, the priority class for each of the casualties, and the locations of both the servicing ambulatory helicopter and casualty event. Instances of the dispatching problem are solved using a relative value iteration dynamic programming algorithm. Computational examples are used to investigate optimal dispatch policies under different threat situations and armed escort delays; the examples are based on combat scenarios in which United States Army MEDEVAC units support ground operations in Afghanistan.

  15. Semi-empiric model of an air cooled cabinet air conditioner for the dynamic analysis of the building and acclimation systems integrated behaviour; Modelo semi-empirico de condicionador de gabinete resfriado a ar para analise dinamica do comportamento integrado de edificacoes e sistemas de climatizacao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, Jorge E. [Para Univ., Belem (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: jecorrea@amazon.com.br; Melo, Claudio. E-mail: melo@nrva.ufsc.br; Negrao, Cezar O. R. E-mail: negrao@energia.damec.cefetpr.br

    2000-07-01

    This work presents a semi-empirical model for a air cooled case air conditioner. This model is to be inserted in the EPS-r program (Environmental System Performance - research version) allowing the dynamic analysis of the integrated behaviour of buildings and acclimation systems using this equipment. Results obtained from simulations under the operation conditions existing in Brazil are analysed.

  16. On the characteristics of multistage evacuated solar distillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, M.I.; Hrairi, M.; Ismail, A.F. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia, P.O. Box 10, 50728 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    2009-06-15

    This paper proposes a new multistage evacuated solar distillation system that was designed to increase the productivity and improve the efficiency of the simple solar still. The solar still works by virtue of the higher evaporation rate under vacuum conditions. A mathematical model for the system was developed and used to optimize the system design. Fluent software was used to simulate the simultaneous heat-mass processes of the still. NASTRAN software was used for the structural analysis. The system components were fabricated and the overall system was assembled. The preliminary results showed a significant improvement of the overall productivity. Indeed, the total productivity of the solar still is affected very much by changing the internal pressure. The productivity decreased as the pressure increased due to the lower evaporation rates at the higher pressure values. The influence of the characteristic height variation on the still's estimated productivity was found to be very strong. As the height increases the productivity decreases significantly. (author)

  17. Development of metal-clad filled evacuated panel superinsulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkes, K.E.; Strizak, J.P.; Weaver, F.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Besser, J.E.; Smith, D.L. [Aladdin Industries, Inc. (United States)

    1997-03-01

    This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) was between Aladdin Industries, Inc. and Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. The purpose of the CRADA was to determine the thermal performance of various metal claddings used to encapsulate Filled Evacuated Panel (FEP) superinsulation and to optimize the cost versus thermal performance of the claddings. A FEP superinsulation is a new type of superinsulation with the potential for saving large amounts of energy in buildings, building equipment, transportation (refrigerated railcars and trucks), industrial applications, etc. The major disadvantage of metal claddings for FEPs is the heat loss through the cladding caused by the high thermal conductivity of most metals. In smaller FEPs, this heat loss can degrade the overall performance of the FEP by factors of two or more as compared with polymer-clad FEPs. On the other hand, metal claddings are essentially impermeable to ambient air, whereas polymer claddings are not. Thus, the longevity and reliability of metal-clad FEPs are much superior to polymer-clad FEPs. In addition, because of the very low vapor pressure of metals as compared to polymers, metal-clad FEPs can achieve and operate at lower internal pressures. These lower pressures allow use of less expensive and/or higher performance filler materials.

  18. Low-cost evacuated-tube solar collector. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beecher, D. T.

    1981-02-10

    A prototype design for an evacuated tube air cooled solar collector module has been completed. A product cost study, based on the production of 60,000 of the prototype modules per year (approx. 1,000,000 square feet annually), estimates that the module as shipped would have a cost at inventory of $7.09 to $7.40 per square foot of aperture. Computer programs were developed to predict the optical and thermal performance of the module. Antireflective coatings (porous aluminum oxide) which could be formed by spraying or dipping were demonstrated but degraded more rapidly when exposed to a high humidity ambient than acid etched films. A selective black chromium oxide multi-layered graded film was vapor deposited which had an absorptivity of about 0.9 and an emissivity of 0.03. When the film was heated to temperatures of 400/sup 0/C in a gettered vacuum for as little as 24 hours, however, irreversible changes took place both between and within coating layers which resulted in ..cap alpha.. decreasing to about 0.73 and epsilon increasing to 0.14. The product cost studies indicate that module design changes are warranted to reduce product cost prior to tooling for production.

  19. Medical evacuations in the oil and gas industry: a retrospective review with implications for future evacuation and preventative strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toner, Sharyn; Andrée Wiltens, Derkje H; Berg, Johannes; Williams, Hector; Klein, Susan; Marshall, Simon; Nerwich, Neil; Copeland, Ryan

    2017-05-01

    Businesses increasingly conduct operations in remote areas where medical evacuation [Medevac(s)] carries more risk. Royal Dutch Shell developed a remote healthcare strategy whereby enhanced remote healthcare is made available to the patient through use of telemedicine and telemetry. To evaluate that strategy, a review of Medevacs of Shell International employees [i.e. expatriate employees (EEs) and frequent business travellers (FBTs)] was undertaken. A retrospective review of Medevac data (period 2008-12) that were similar in operational constraints and population profile was conducted. Employee records and Human Resource data were used as a denominator for the population. Analogous Medevac data from specific locations were used to compare patterns of diagnoses. A total of 130 Medevacs were conducted during the study period, resulting in a Medevac rate of 4 per 1000 of population with 16 per 1000 for females and 3 per 1000 for males, respectively. The youngest and oldest age-groups required Medevacs in larger proportions. The evacuation rates were highest for countries classified as 'high' or 'extreme risk'. The most frequent diagnostic categories for Medevac were: trauma, digestive, musculoskeletal, cardiac and neurological. In 9% of the total, a strong to moderate link could be made between the pre-existing medical condition and diagnosis leading to Medevac. This study uniquely provides a benchmark Medevac rate (4 per 1000) for EEs and FBTs and demonstrates that Medevac rates are highest from countries identified as 'high risk'; there is an age and gender bias, and pre-existing medical conditions are of notable relevance. It confirms a change in the trend from injury to illness as a reason for Medevac in the oil and gas industry and demonstrates that diagnoses of a digestive and traumatic nature are the most frequent. A holistic approach to health (as opposed to a predominant focus on fitness to work), more attention to female travellers, and the application of

  20. Good practices in transportation evacuation preparedness and response : results of the FHWA Workshop Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    This document provides an overview of the good practices identified during a series of multi-state workshops on Transportation Evacuation Preparedness and Response in four regions across the United States. Good practices are not presented in priority...

  1. Prototype design for a predictive model to improve evacuation operations : technical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    Mass evacuations of the Texas Gulf Coast remain a difficult challenge. These events are massive in scale, : highly complex, and entail an intricate, ever-changing conglomeration of technical and jurisdictional issues. : This project focused primarily...

  2. EVALUATION OF EVACUATED TUBULAR SOLAR COLLECTORS FOR LARGE SDHW SYSTEMS AND COMBINED SPACE HEATING SYSTEMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon

    1999-01-01

    . Based on thesemodels, the thermal performance of large solar domestic hot water (DHW) systems and combined domestichot water and space heating systems with the four evacuated tubular collectors was determined. To make acomparison with traditional flat-plate collectors, similar simulations were also......In the present study, detailed investigations on evacuated tubular solar collectors for large solarheating systems have been carried out. Four types of evacuated tubular solar collectors were used in theinvestigation. Based on laboratory tests, simulation models for the collectors were determined...... carried out for systems with atypical flat-plate collector. The results show that the thermal advantage of evacuated tubular collectors variesgreatly from system to system, and increases with the solar fraction. Furthermore, the higher the operationtemperature of the collector in the system is...

  3. Variations in disaster evacuation behavior: public responses versus private sector executive decision-making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabek, T E

    1992-06-01

    Data obtained from 65 executives working for tourism firms in three sample communities permitted comparison with the public warning response literature regarding three topics: disaster evacuation planning, initial warning responses, and disaster evacuation behavior. Disaster evacuation planning was reported by nearly all of these business executives, although it was highly variable in content, completeness, and formality. Managerial responses to post-disaster warnings paralleled the type of complex social processes that have been documented within the public response literature, except that warning sources and confirmation behavior were significantly affected by contact with authorities. Five key areas of difference were discovered in disaster evacuation behavior pertaining to: influence of planning, firm versus family priorities, shelter selection, looting concerns, and media contacts.

  4. National study on carless and special needs populations mobilizing your community for emergency evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The National Study on Carless and Special Needs Evacuation Planning was a multi-year study funded by the Federal Transit Administration : to research how state Departments of Transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), transit ...

  5. Evaluating coastal and river valley communities evacuation network performance using macroscopic productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-30

    The ever-increasing processing speed and computational power of computers and simulation systems has led to correspondingly larger, more sophisticated representations of evacuation traffic processes. Today, micro-level analyses can be conducted for m...

  6. Vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal surgical evacuation of first trimester incomplete abortion: Comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Shokry

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: Although vaginal surgical evacuation is more effective than misoprostol in solving the problem still medical treatment is effective and acceptable especially when surgical management is not available or risky or patients refuse to do surgical management.

  7. A comparison of the nursing home evacuation experience between hurricanes katrina (2005) and gustav (2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Gary; Dosa, David

    2009-11-01

    One of the tragic legacies of Hurricane Katrina was the loss of life among Louisiana (LA) nursing home (NH) residents. Katrina revealed a staggering lack of emergency preparation and understanding of how to safely evacuate frail populations. Three years later, LA braced for Hurricane Gustav, a storm heralded to rival Katrina's power. Although its magnitude of destruction ultimately paled to Katrina, the warnings and predicted path preceding Gustav yielded a process of NH evacuations similar to Katrina. The goal of this article was to ascertain whether NH administrative directors (ADs) felt more prepared to evacuate before Gustav. In 2006, Dosa et al(5) (J Am Med Dir Assoc, 3/07), interviewed 20 NH ADs by qualitative telephone survey to evaluate their lessons learned from Katrina. Administrators at these 20 participating nursing homes were contacted and asked to participate in a follow-up survey to compare hurricane preparedness between 2005 and 2008. Specifically, ADs were asked if they evacuated before Gustav, their destination, and about logistical issues with evacuation (eg, transportation, injuries). ADs were asked to rate their confidence with state assistance, hurricane transportation, and evacuation preparedness on a 10-point scale (10=most confident) and compare their preparedness to Katrina. Sixteen of the 20 NHs that participated in 2006 agreed to be surveyed-11 of whom held the same position before Katrina. Unlike Katrina, when only 45% evacuated before the storm, all 16 NHs evacuated before Gustav (56% to another NH and 46% to a church, gym, college, or other facility). Overall, ADs rated their confidence in preparedness for Gustav as a mean of 8.3 (range 5 to 10) compared with a mean of 5.4 (range 3 to 8) for Katrina, a 54% improvement. Of the 11 ADs employed pre-Katrina, 73% reported improved collaboration with the state and 55% noted improved transportation. Nevertheless, 7 ADs noted significant logistical problems during evacuation (mostly

  8. Analysis of techniques for estimating evacuation times for emergency planning zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbanik, T.; Desrosiers, A.; Lindell, M.K.; Schuller, C.R.

    1980-11-01

    Limitations of current methodologies and some alternatives are discussed that point out that evacuation time is a combination of the time required for four separate actions. These are decision, notification, preparation, and response (travel) time. Times for these actions will overlap to some degree with some people receiving notification, some preparing to leave, and others traveling. Notification and preparation times significantly affect the evacuation time and must be known before time to clear an area can be calculated accurately. (author)

  9. Application Development for Optimizing Patient Placement on Aeromedical Evacuation Flights: Proof-of-Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-12

    AFRL-SA-WP-SR-2018-0001 Application Development for Optimizing Patient Placement on Aeromedical Evacuation Flights: Proof-of- Concept ...Development for Optimizing Patient Placement on Aeromedical Evacuation Flights: Proof-of- Concept 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c...distribution of these plans would streamline the plan development process. Thus, as a proof-of- concept , the study team conducted a multi-phased effort

  10. Decisionmaking in hospital earthquake evacuation: Does distance from the epicenter matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz, Carl H. MD; Koenig, Kristi L. MD; Lewis, Roger J. MD, PhD

    2007-01-01

    Study objective: Over large expanses, the risk for hospital damage from an earthquake attenuates as the distance from the epicenter increases, which may not be true within the immediate disaster zone (near field), however. The following study examines the impact of epicenter distance and ground motion on hospital evacuation and closure for those structures near the epicenter of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and the implications for patient evacuation. Methods: This is a retrospectiv...

  11. Empirical Philosophy of Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansnerus, Erika; Wagenknecht, Susann

    2015-01-01

    The book examines the emerging approach of using qualitative methods, such as interviews and field observations, in the philosophy of science. Qualitative methods are gaining popularity among philosophers of science as more and more scholars are resorting to empirical work in their study...... of scientific practices. At the same time, the results produced through empirical work are quite different from those gained through the kind of introspective conceptual analysis more typical of philosophy. This volume explores the benefits and challenges of an empirical philosophy of science and addresses...

  12. Theological reflections on empire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan A. Boesak

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the meeting of the World Alliance of Reformed Churches in Accra, Ghana (2004, and the adoption of the Accra Declaration, a debate has been raging in the churches about globalisation, socio-economic justice, ecological responsibility, political and cultural domination and globalised war. Central to this debate is the concept of empire and the way the United States is increasingly becoming its embodiment. Is the United States a global empire? This article argues that the United States has indeed become the expression of a modern empire and that this reality has considerable consequences, not just for global economics and politics but for theological refl ection as well.

  13. Empires, Nations, and Revolutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelman, Jeremy

    2018-01-01

    This essay examines the ways in which the age of revolutions expanded the repertoire of political ideas and identities available to new and old political subjects. It questions the traditional narrative that replaces a model of old regimes and empires with a new one of imagined unitary nation-states. Instead, it argues that the nature of the political crisis of the Iberian empires gave rise to a reinvention of familiar categories, like monarchy and empire, and sired a wider range of new ones that did not fit the national mold.

  14. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  15. Dispositional and situational variables related to evacuation at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, I.S.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore some of the factors influential in local residents' evacuating or remaining in the Three Mile Island area during the nuclear power plant accident of March, 1979. Investigated variables included individuals' behavioral dispositions to attend or to avoid threatening stimuli as well as situational concerns related to demographic characteristics and subjective experience. Investigation of situational variables also probed respondents' concerns about accident-related fears. Two main relationships were investigated. The first hypothesized that positive relationships existed both between dispositional attention to threat and evacuation and between dispositional avoidance of threat and remaining. The second investigation task of the research explored evacuation-related situational variables in regard to individuals' awareness of potential danger at TMI. No support was found for the hypothesized relationships between evacuation and dispositions relative to threat. Situational variables significantly related to evacuation included: specific directives to evacuate the area; disruption of telephone service during the week of the accident; and household proximity to TMI

  16. K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyue He

    Full Text Available Emergency evacuation aims to transport people from dangerous places to safe shelters as quickly as possible. Police play an important role in the evacuation process, as they can handle traffic accidents immediately and help people move smoothly on roads. This paper investigates an evacuation routing problem that involves police resource allocation. We propose a novel k-th-shortest-path-based technique that uses explicit congestion control to optimize evacuation routing and police resource allocation. A nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is presented to formulate the problem. The model's objective is to minimize the overall evacuation clearance time. Two algorithms are given to solve the problem. The first one linearizes the original model and solves the linearized problem with CPLEX. The second one is a heuristic algorithm that uses a police resource utilization efficiency index to directly solve the original model. This police resource utilization efficiency index significantly aids in the evaluation of road links from an evacuation throughput perspective. The proposed algorithms are tested with a number of examples based on real data from cities of different sizes. The computational results show that the police resource utilization efficiency index is very helpful in finding near-optimal solutions. Additionally, comparing the performance of the heuristic algorithm and the linearization method by using randomly generated examples indicates that the efficiency of the heuristic algorithm is superior.

  17. How to simulate pedestrian behaviors in seismic evacuation for vulnerability reduction of existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quagliarini, Enrico; Bernardini, Gabriele; D'Orazio, Marco

    2017-07-01

    Understanding and representing how individuals behave in earthquake emergencies would be essentially to assess the impact of vulnerability reduction strategies on existing buildings in seismic areas. In fact, interactions between individuals and the scenario (modified by the earthquake occurrence) are really important in order to understand the possible additional risks for people, especially during the evacuation phase. The current approach is based on "qualitative" aspects, in order to define best practice guidelines for Civil Protection and populations. On the contrary, a "quantitative" description of human response and evacuation motion in similar conditions is urgently needed. Hence, this work defines the rules for pedestrians' earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios, by taking advantages of previous results of real-world evacuation analyses. In particular, motion laws for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model equation. The proposed model could be used for evaluating individuals' evacuation process and so for defining operative strategies for interferences reduction in critical urban fabric parts (e.g.: interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition, city parts projects).

  18. Self-efficacy and barriers to disaster evacuation in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newnham, Elizabeth A; Balsari, Satchit; Lam, Rex Pui Kin; Kashyap, Shraddha; Pham, Phuong; Chan, Emily Y Y; Patrick, Kaylie; Leaning, Jennifer

    2017-12-01

    To investigate specific challenges to Hong Kong's capacity for effective disaster response, we assessed perceived barriers to evacuation and citizens' self-efficacy. Global positioning system software was used to determine random sampling locations across Hong Kong, weighted by population density. The resulting sample of 1023 participants (46.5% female, mean age 40.74 years) were invited to complete questionnaires on emergency preparedness, barriers to evacuation and self-efficacy. Latent profile analysis and multinomial logistic regression were used to identify self-efficacy profiles and predictors of profile membership. Only 11% of the sample reported feeling prepared to respond to a disaster. If asked to evacuate in an emergency, 41.9% of the sample cited significant issues that would preclude them from doing so. Self-efficacy was negatively associated with barriers to disaster response so that participants reporting higher levels of self-efficacy cited fewer perceived barriers to evacuation. Hong Kong has established effective strategies for emergency response, but concerns regarding evacuation and mobilisation remain. The findings indicate that improving self-efficacy for disaster response has potential to increase evacuation readiness.

  19. Agent-based simulation of building evacuation using a grid graph-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, L; Lin, H; Hu, M; Che, W

    2014-01-01

    Shifting from macroscope models to microscope models, the agent-based approach has been widely used to model crowd evacuation as more attentions are paid on individualized behaviour. Since indoor evacuation behaviour is closely related to spatial features of the building, effective representation of indoor space is essential for the simulation of building evacuation. The traditional cell-based representation has limitations in reflecting spatial structure and is not suitable for topology analysis. Aiming at incorporating powerful topology analysis functions of GIS to facilitate agent-based simulation of building evacuation, we used a grid graph-based model in this study to represent the indoor space. Such model allows us to establish an evacuation network at a micro level. Potential escape routes from each node thus could be analysed through GIS functions of network analysis considering both the spatial structure and route capacity. This would better support agent-based modelling of evacuees' behaviour including route choice and local movements. As a case study, we conducted a simulation of emergency evacuation from the second floor of an official building using Agent Analyst as the simulation platform. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method, as well as the potential of GIS in visualizing and analysing simulation results

  20. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

    2017-12-01

    This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  1. Life Writing After Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    in order to understand how individual life writing reflects broader societal changes. From far-flung corners of the former British Empire, people have turned to life writing to manage painful or nostalgic memories, as well as to think about the past and future of the nation anew through the personal......A watershed moment of the twentieth century, the end of empire saw upheavals to global power structures and national identities. However, decolonisation profoundly affected individual subjectivities too. Life Writing After Empire examines how people around the globe have made sense of the post...... experience. In a range of innovative and insightful contributions, some of the foremost scholars of the field challenge the way we think about narrative, memory and identity after empire. This book was originally published as a special issue of Life Writing....

  2. Measuring US Army medical evacuation: Metrics for performance improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvagno, Samuel M; Mabry, Robert L; Maddry, Joseph; Kharod, Chetan U; Walrath, Benjamin D; Powell, Elizabeth; Shackelford, Stacy

    2018-01-01

    The US Army medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) community has maintained a reputation for high levels of success in transporting casualties from the point of injury to definitive care. This work served as a demonstration project to advance a model of quality assurance surveillance and medical direction for prehospital MEDEVAC providers within the Joint Trauma System. A retrospective interrupted time series analysis using prospectively collected data was performed as a process improvement project. Records were reviewed during two distinct periods: 2009 and 2014 to 2015. MEDEVAC records were matched to outcomes data available in the Department of Defense Trauma Registry. Abstracted deidentified data were reviewed for specific outcomes, procedures, and processes of care. Descriptive statistics were applied as appropriate. A total of 1,008 patients were included in this study. Nine quality assurance metrics were assessed. These metrics were: airway management, management of hypoxemia, compliance with a blood transfusion protocol, interventions for hypotensive patients, quality of battlefield analgesia, temperature measurement and interventions, proportion of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients with hypoxemia and/or hypotension, proportion of traumatic brain injury patients with an appropriate assessment, and proportion of missing data. Overall survival in the subset of patients with outcomes data available in the Department of Defense Trauma Registry was 97.5%. The data analyzed for this study suggest overall high compliance with established tactical combat casualty care guidelines. In the present study, nearly 7% of patients had at least one documented oxygen saturation of less than 90%, and 13% of these patients had no documentation of any intervention for hypoxemia, indicating a need for training focus on airway management for hypoxemia. Advances in battlefield analgesia continued to evolve over the period when data for this study was collected. Given the inherent high

  3. Empirical Essays on Office Market Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G.J. Jennen (Maarten)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractOffice buildings are a major investment vehicle, provide a working environment for numerous employees across the globe and determine the skyline of major cities. Put differently: office buildings matter. This dissertation consists of six studies and focuses on office buildings from a

  4. A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

    2015-01-01

    Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

  5. Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

    2017-01-01

    Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

  6. Evacuation Preparedness in the Event of Fire in Intensive Care Units in Sweden: More is Needed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfqvist, Erika; Oskarsson, Åsa; Brändström, Helge; Vuorio, Alpo; Haney, Michael

    2017-06-01

    Introduction Hospitals, including intensive care units (ICUs), can be subject to threat from fire and require urgent evacuation. Hypothesis The hypothesis was that the current preparedness for ICU evacuation for fire in the national public hospital system in a wealthy country was very good, using Sweden as model. An already validated questionnaire for this purpose was adapted to national/local circumstances and translated into Swedish. It aimed to elicit information concerning fire response planning, personnel education, training, and exercises. Questionnaire results (yes/no answers) were collected and answers collated to assess grouped responses. Frequencies of responses were determined. While a written hospital plan for fire response and evacuation was noted by all responders, personnel familiarity with the plan was less frequent. Deficiencies were reported concerning all categories: lack of written fire response plan for ICU, lack of personnel education in this, and lack of practical exercises to practice urgent evacuation in the event of fire. These findings were interpreted as an indication of risk for worse consequences for patients in the event of fire and ICU evacuation among the hospitals in the country that was assessed, despite clear regulations and requirements for these. The exact reasons for this lack of compliance with existing laws was not clear, though there are many possible explanations. To remedy this, more attention is needed concerning recognizing risk related to lack of preparedness. Where there exists a goal of high-quality work in the ICU, this should include general leadership and medical staff preparedness in the event of urgent ICU evacuation. Löfqvist E , Oskarsson A , Brändström H , Vuorio A , Haney M . Evacuation preparedness in the event of fire in intensive care units in Sweden: more is needed. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(3):317-320.

  7. Effect of varying two key parameters in simulating evacuation for a dormitory in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran

    2013-01-01

    Student dormitories are both living and resting areas for students in their spare time. There are many small rooms in the dormitories. And the students are distributed densely in the dormitories. High occupant density is the main characteristic of student dormitories. Once there is an accident, such as fire or earthquake, the losses will be cruel. Computer evacuation models developed overseas are commonly applied in working out safety management schemes. The average minimum widths of corridor and exit are the two key parameters affecting the evacuation for the dormitory. The effect of varying these two parameters will be studied in this paper by taking a dormitory in our university as an example. Evacuation performance is predicted with the software FDS + Evac. The default values in the software are used and adjusted through a field survey. The effect of varying either of the two parameters is discussed. It is found that the simulated results agree well with the experimental results. From our study it seems that the evacuation time is not in proportion to the evacuation distance. And we also named a phenomenon of “the closer is not the faster”. For the building researched in this article, a corridor width of 3 m is the most appropriate. And the suitable exit width of the dormitory for evacuation is about 2.5 to 3 m. The number of people has great influence on the walking speed of people. The purpose of this study is to optimize the building, and to make the building in favor of personnel evacuation. Then the damage could be minimized.

  8. Teen Dating Violence and Substance Use Following a Natural Disaster: Does Evacuation Status Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temple, Jeff R.; van den Berg, Patricia; Thomas, John F. “Fred”; Northcutt, James; Thomas, Christopher; Freeman, Daniel H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives In September of 2008 the Texas coast was directly hit by Hurricane Ike. Galveston was flooded by 14 feet of storm surge, affecting most of the Island’s housing and infrastructure. The purpose of the present study is to examine whether youth who did not evacuate (11%), and subsequently were exposed to Hurricane Ike, exhibit higher rates of substance use and physical and sexual teen dating violence (both perpetration and victimization), relative to adolescents who did evacuate. Setting Public high school in southeast Texas that was in the direct path of Hurricane Ike. Participants An anonymous survey was administered in March 2009 to 1,048 high-school students who returned to Galveston post-storm (41% Hispanic, 23% African-American, 27% White). Main Outcome Measures Teen dating violence and substance use. Results Mantel-Haenszel odds ratios, adjusting for age and ethnicity, were computed. Compared to boys who evacuated, non-evacuating boys were more likely to perpetrate physical dating violence and sexual assault, and to be a victim of sexual assault. Non-evacuating boys and girls were more likely than those who did evacuate to report recent use of excessive alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine. Conclusions School personnel, medical personnel, and mental health service providers should consider screening for evacuation status in seeking to identify those adolescents who most need services after a natural disaster. Further, in addition to addressing internalized emotions and psychological symptoms associated with experiencing trauma, intervention programs should focus on reducing externalized behavior such as substance use and teen dating violence. PMID:22010597

  9. Gas dynamic laser device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Born, G.

    1975-01-01

    The gas dynamic laser device is provided with an expansion chamber arranged between a heating chamber for the CO-gas and the resonance chamber. The expansion chamber is initially evacuated for producing a rarefaction wave. Between the heating chamber and the expansion chamber there are arranged rapid release means such as a valve or a diaphragm. Pressure recovering means are connected to the other side of the resonance chamber

  10. To Stay or Not to Stay: Non-Combatant Evacuation Operations and Their Impact on Host Nation/Regional Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-13

    broadcasts, newspaper announcements, and notices at tourist hotels to disseminate information about the security situation and evacuations to the...can become even more complex if evacuation planning has been focused on a single airport or seaport . 18 Diplomatic posts must explore and plan for...chaotic. In Tripoli, a complex security situation and lack of clarity regarding flight clearances made the seaport the better evacuation option. 19

  11. The evacuation of schools and school facilities for children, pupils and students with special educational needs in South Bohemia

    OpenAIRE

    PAVELKOVÁ, Petra

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of schools and educational institutions in the South Bohemian Region in terms of their preparedness to evacuate children and students with special educational needs. This thesis assesses the preparedness and awareness of individual schools. The work is divided into two parts, a theoretical part and a research part. The theoretical part deals mainly with evacuations as a reaction on an emergence of an incident or crisis. Evacuation applies to people of all a...

  12. Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Lawrence E

    2001-01-01

    Beginning text presents complete theoretical treatment of mechanical model systems and deals with technological applications. Topics include introduction to calculus of vectors, particle motion, dynamics of particle systems and plane rigid bodies, technical applications in plane motions, theory of mechanical vibrations, and more. Exercises and answers appear in each chapter.

  13. Empirical philosophy of science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagenknecht, Susann; Nersessian, Nancy J.; Andersen, Hanne

    2015-01-01

    A growing number of philosophers of science make use of qualitative empirical data, a development that may reconfigure the relations between philosophy and sociology of science and that is reminiscent of efforts to integrate history and philosophy of science. Therefore, the first part...... of this introduction to the volume Empirical Philosophy of Science outlines the history of relations between philosophy and sociology of science on the one hand, and philosophy and history of science on the other. The second part of this introduction offers an overview of the papers in the volume, each of which...... is giving its own answer to questions such as: Why does the use of qualitative empirical methods benefit philosophical accounts of science? And how should these methods be used by the philosopher?...

  14. Early waning and evacuation from Tsunami, volcano, flood and other hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2012-12-01

    In reconsideration of the great sacrifice among the people, evacuation calls for evacuation through Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), local governments and Medias have been drastically changed after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. One of example is that JMA changed from forecasted concrete figure of tsunami height to one of 3 levels of tsunami height. A data shows the border between life and death is just 2 minutes of earlier evacuation in case of the 2011 tsunami. It shows how importance for communities to prompt early evacuation for survivals. However, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed there is no reliable trigger to prompt early evacuation to people in case of blackout under disasters, excluding effective education. The warning call was still complicated situations in Japan in July 2012. The 2012 Northern Kyusyu downpours was at worst around 110 millimeters an hour and casualties 30 in Japan. JMA learned from the last tsunami. In this time JMA informed to local governments as a waning call "Unexpected severe rains" to local governments. However, local governments did not notice the call from JMA in the same as usual informed way. One of the local government said "We were very busy for preparing for staffs. We looked at the necessary information of the water levels of rivers and flood prevention under emergent situation" (NHK 2012). This case shows JMA's evacuation calls from upstream to midstream of local government and downstream of communities started, however upstream calls have not engaged with midstream and communities yet. Calls of early warning from upstream is still a self-centered idea for both midstream and downstream. Finally JMA could not convey a crisis mentality to local government. The head of Oarai town independently decided to use the different warning call "Order townspersons to evacuate immediately" in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan from the other municipalities in 2011 though there was not such a manuals calls in Japan. This risk communication

  15. Decisionmaking in hospital earthquake evacuation: does distance from the epicenter matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Carl H; Koenig, Kristi L; Lewis, Roger J

    2007-09-01

    Over large expanses, the risk for hospital damage from an earthquake attenuates as the distance from the epicenter increases, which may not be true within the immediate disaster zone (near field), however. The following study examines the impact of epicenter distance and ground motion on hospital evacuation and closure for those structures near the epicenter of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and the implications for patient evacuation. This is a retrospective case-control study of all hospitals reporting off-site evacuations or permanent closure because of damage from the January 17, 1994, earthquake in Northridge, CA. Control hospitals were randomly identified from those facilities that did not evacuate patients. Distances from the epicenter and peak ground accelerations were calculated for each hospital from Trinet ShakeMap data and compared. Eight hospitals evacuated patients (study group); 4 of these hospitals were condemned. These were compared to 8 hospitals that did not evacuate patients (control group). The median epicenter-to-hospital distance for evacuated facilities was 8.1 miles (interquartile range [IQRs] 4.0 to 17.2 miles), whereas that for nonevacuated facilities was 14.1 miles (IRQ 10.5 to 17.0 miles). The difference in the median distances was 6.0 miles (95% confidence interval -4.8 to 11.9 miles). The peak ground acceleration had a median of 0.77 g (IQR 0.53 to 0.85 g) for study hospitals and a median of 0.36 g (IQR 0.24 to 0.50 g) for control hospitals, where 1 g equals the force of gravity. The difference in median acceleration of 0.41 g (95% CI 0.14 to 0.55 g) was significant (P=.009). The distances from the epicenter for evacuated or condemned facilities and control hospitals do not appear to differ in the near field. Peak ground acceleration is a superior indicator of the risk for hospital damage and evacuation. Physicians can obtain these data in real time from the Internet and should transfer patients to facilities in areas of lower

  16. The simulation of sanitary objects evacuation: An example of hotel 'Radon' in Niška Banja

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Object evacuation is one of the most important, the most responsible and the most complex tasks for human safety in objects generally. This is especially important for objects with lot oh humans, such as health facilities, high residential objects, hotels, schools, etc. This is still an open and ongoing problem which can be confirmed by many injured people who were not evacuated in the disasters. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situation and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of Hotel Radon in Niška Banja, as one specific health facility with hardly moving and immobile patients.

  17. A robust optimization model for distribution and evacuation in the disaster response phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fereiduni, Meysam; Shahanaghi, Kamran

    2017-03-01

    Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, affect thousands of people and can cause enormous financial loss. Therefore, an efficient response immediately following a natural disaster is vital to minimize the aforementioned negative effects. This research paper presents a network design model for humanitarian logistics which will assist in location and allocation decisions for multiple disaster periods. At first, a single-objective optimization model is presented that addresses the response phase of disaster management. This model will help the decision makers to make the most optimal choices in regard to location, allocation, and evacuation simultaneously. The proposed model also considers emergency tents as temporary medical centers. To cope with the uncertainty and dynamic nature of disasters, and their consequences, our multi-period robust model considers the values of critical input data in a set of various scenarios. Second, because of probable disruption in the distribution infrastructure (such as bridges), the Monte Carlo simulation is used for generating related random numbers and different scenarios; the p-robust approach is utilized to formulate the new network. The p-robust approach can predict possible damages along pathways and among relief bases. We render a case study of our robust optimization approach for Tehran's plausible earthquake in region 1. Sensitivity analysis' experiments are proposed to explore the effects of various problem parameters. These experiments will give managerial insights and can guide DMs under a variety of conditions. Then, the performances of the "robust optimization" approach and the "p-robust optimization" approach are evaluated. Intriguing results and practical insights are demonstrated by our analysis on this comparison.

  18. Social influence in a virtual tunnel fire--influence of conflicting information on evacuation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinateder, Max; Müller, Mathias; Jost, Michael; Mühlberger, Andreas; Pauli, Paul

    2014-11-01

    Evacuation from a smoke filled tunnel requires quick decision-making and swift action from the tunnel occupants. Technical installations such as emergency signage aim to guide tunnel occupants to the closest emergency exits. However, conflicting information may come from the behavior of other tunnel occupants. We examined if and how conflicting social information may affect evacuation in terms of delayed and/or inadequate evacuation decisions and behaviors. To this end, forty participants were repeatedly situated in a virtual reality smoke filled tunnel with an emergency exit visible to one side of the participants. Four social influence conditions were realized. In the control condition participants were alone in the tunnel, while in the other three experimental conditions a virtual agent (VA) was present. In the no-conflict condition, the VA moved to the emergency exit. In the active conflict condition, the VA moved in the opposite direction of the emergency exit. In the passive conflict condition, the VA stayed passive. Participants were less likely to move to the emergency exit in the conflict conditions compared to the no-conflict condition. Pre-movement and movement times in the passive conflict condition were significantly delayed compared to all other conditions. Participants moved the longest distances in the passive conflict condition. These results support the hypothesis that social influence affects evacuation behavior, especially passive behavior of others can thwart an evacuation to safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Evacuation of Pets During Disasters: A Public Health Intervention to Increase Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwin, Robin

    2017-09-01

    During a disaster, many pet owners want to evacuate their pets with them, only to find that evacuation and sheltering options are limited or nonexistent. This disregard for companion animal welfare during a disaster can have public health consequences. Pet owners may be stranded at home, unwilling to leave their pets behind. Others refuse evacuation orders or attempt to reenter evacuation sites illegally to rescue their animals. Psychopathologies such as grief, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder are associated with pet abandonment during an evacuation. Health care workers may refuse to work if their animals are in danger, leaving medical facilities understaffed during crises. Zoonotic disease risk increases when pets are abandoned or left to roam, where they are more likely to encounter infected wildlife or unowned animals than they would if they were safely sheltered with their owners. These sequelae are not unique to the United States, nor to wealthy countries. Emergency planning for companion animals during disasters is a global need in communities with a significant pet population, and will increase resilience and improve public health.

  20. Civilians under fire: evacuation behaviour in north Israel during the Second Lebanon War.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidron, David; Peleg, Kobi; Jaffe, Dena; Shenhar, Gili

    2010-10-01

    This paper seeks to understand evacuation behaviour in a case of spontaneous evacuation. During the Second Lebanon War of 2006, more than one-third of residents in north Israel spontaneously evacuated--the remainder stayed in situ. Using a telephone survey of 665 respondents residing in north Israel, we were able to characterise the behaviour of evacuees and non-evacuees. The main reasons cited for evacuating were fear of injury to self or family, the effect on children, inability to remain in a protective space, and family pressure. The main reasons cited for remaining at home were no suitable alternative, did not perceive a high level of danger, had to go to work, and there is no place like home. There were no significant differences with regard to most socio-demographic characteristics of the population. These findings should aid emergency managers in preparing the population for a future emergency and in engaging in effective dialogue with the population during an emergency on the evacuation option. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  1. Theoretical and experimental validation of evacuated tubes directly coupled with solar still

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchal, H. N.; Thakkar, H.

    2016-11-01

    Experimental study of evacuated tubes coupled solar still in the climatic conditions of Mehsana, a region of North Gujarat, India during summer and winter climate conditions has been made. Experimental setup was made by authors. Fourteen double-walled hard borosilicate glass tubes have been used. Evacuated tubes were inclined at angle of 45° from horizontal. Outer tubes of evacuated tubes were transparent, inner tubes were coated with a selective coating of Al-Ni/Al compound for better solar radiation absorption and minimum emittance. It has been shown that evacuated tube attachments to the solar still increased the water temperature inside the solar still for increment in the generation of distillate output. Evacuated tubes coupled solar still is not only produce distilled water during sunshine hours, but also off-sunshine hours due to heat storage effect. For the validation of the experimental results, a theoretical model is proposed based on the fundamentals of heat and mass transfer equations for solar still glass cover, water in basin and basin bottom. Two main statistical parameters—root mean square error and mean bias error—were calculated to compare the results of experiments and theoretical analysis. Closed matching of the experimental and theoretical results has been found.

  2. [Does Routine Pathology Evaluation of Uterine Content Following Evacuation for Abnormal Early Pregnancy Influence Further Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordić, S; Matijević, R

    2016-04-01

    The aim was to determine usefulness of routine pathologic evaluation of uterine content after uterine evacuation following the diagnosis of abnormal early pregnancy. This retrospective descriptive study performed during a one-year period included all patients diagnosed with abnormal early pregnancy clinically or by ultrasound in the first trimester. All patients had uterine evacuation. During the study period, 335 women were diagnosed with abnormal early pregnancy and referred for uterine evacuation. Pathology results were available for 312 women included in the analysis. In 272 (87.2%) women, trophoblast tissue was found on examination and therefore intrauterine pregnancy was confirmed. In the remaining 40 patients, trophoblast was not found. In 10 (3.2%) patients, gestational trophoblastic disease was diagnosed, not being suspected on pre-evacuation assessment. In one patient, suspected molar pregnancy was excluded by pathology evaluation. Based on 51/312 (16.3 %) patients where pathology examination of uterine content influenced further management and treatment, we believe that routine pathology examination of uterine content after uterine evacuation in the fi rst trimester following abnormal early pregnancy is justifiable in clinical practice.

  3. An experimental study on single basin solar still augmented with evacuated tubes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sampathkumar K.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of the solar still is determined by the temperature of water in the basin and the glass temperature. Various active methods have been adopted to increase the temperature of the basin, so as to improve the productivity of solar still. Most of the previous research works have been focusing on flat plate collector and concentrating collector. In this experimental study, a single slope solar still directly augmented with evacuated tubes was used to increase the daily productivity by reducing heat losses. Evacuated tubes were directly coupled to the lower side of the single slope solar still with an area of 1m2. Black gravel is used to increase the productivity by means of reducing quantity of water in the basin. Extensive experiments were conducted to explore the performance of solar still in several modes namely still alone, still with black stones, still with evacuated tubes, and still with evacuated tubes and black gravel. The experimental setup was designed and installed at Solar Energy Park, Tamilnadu College of Engineering, Coimbatore (77˚E, 11˚N, Tamilnadu, India. These experiments were conducted using tap water as feed. It was found that, after augmentation of the evacuated tubes, the daily production rate has increased by 49.7 % and it increased by 59.48% with black stones. Economic analysis was also done and payback period of this experimental setup is 235 days.

  4. Vulnerability of Urban Homebound Older Adults in Disasters: A Survey of Evacuation Preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dostal, Patrick J

    2015-06-01

    Recent disasters within the United States, such as Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, have highlighted the vulnerability of older adults, and recent litigation has upheld the responsibility of government in assisting the public during mandatory evacuations. Older adults designated as homebound due to their disabilities are at greatest risk of poor outcomes in disasters. This study aimed at assessing the willingness and ability of homebound older adults to evacuate, as well as categorizing their medical needs in the event they are relocated to an emergency shelter. Fifty-six homebound older adults and medical decision surrogates from 1 homebound primary care practice in Philadelphia were assessed with a novel structured interview. Respondents reported limitations in both their ability and their willingness to evacuate their neighborhoods. Medical needs of homebound older adults were on par with those of nursing home residents. Many homebound older adults are unable or unwilling to evacuate in a mandatory evacuation situation, highlighting a need for public assistance. Their complex medical needs will require significant preparation by special needs shelters.

  5. Lessons learned from the total evacuation of a hospital after the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagawa, Youichi; Kondo, Hisayoshi; Okawa, Takashi; Ochi, Fumio

    The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes were a series of earthquakes that included a foreshock earthquake (magnitude 6.2) on April 14 and a main shock (magnitude 7.0) on April 16, 2016. A number of hospitals in Kumamoto were severely damaged by the two major earthquakes and required total evacuation. The authors retrospectively analyzed the activity data of the Disaster Medical Assistance Teams using the Emergency Medical Information System records to investigate the cases in which the total evacuation of a hospital was attempted following the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Total evacuation was attempted at 17 hospitals. The evacuation of one of these hospitals was canceled. Most of the hospital buildings were more than 20 years old. The danger of collapse was the most frequent reason for evacuation. Various transportation methods were employed, some of which involved the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force; no preventable deaths occurred during transportation. The hospitals must now be renovated to improve their earthquake resistance. The coordinated and combined use of military and civilian resources is beneficial and can significantly reduce human suffering in large-scale disasters.

  6. Empirical philosophy of science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagenknecht, Susann; Nersessian, Nancy J.; Andersen, Hanne

    2015-01-01

    A growing number of philosophers of science make use of qualitative empirical data, a development that may reconfigure the relations between philosophy and sociology of science and that is reminiscent of efforts to integrate history and philosophy of science. Therefore, the first part...... of this introduction to the volume Empirical Philosophy of Science outlines the history of relations between philosophy and sociology of science on the one hand, and philosophy and history of science on the other. The second part of this introduction offers an overview of the papers in the volume, each of which...

  7. Empirical comparison of theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Opp, K.D.; Wippler, R.

    1990-01-01

    The book represents the first, comprehensive attempt to take an empirical approach for comparative assessment of theories in sociology. The aims, problems, and advantages of the empirical approach are discussed in detail, and the three theories selected for the purpose of this work are explained. Their comparative assessment is performed within the framework of several research projects, which among other subjects also investigate the social aspects of the protest against nuclear power plants. The theories analysed in this context are the theory of mental incongruities and that of the benefit, and their efficiency in explaining protest behaviour is compared. (orig./HSCH) [de

  8. Empirical correlation among the dynamic elastic constants and the waves P and S velocities in rocks; Correlaciones empiricas entre las constantes elasticas dinamicas y las velocidades de las ondas P y S de las rocas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contreras Lopez, Enrique [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1995-12-31

    Departing from the analysis of a data base on the velocities of the compression waves (V{sub p}) and the transverse waves (V{sub s}) in a group of 97 specimens of sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic rocks, the existence of four types of empirical correlation very well entailed between the dynamic elastic constants and the velocities V{sub p} and V{sub s}. These correlation allow the estimation with a very close approximation the elastic dynamic constants without the need of having available of the complete set of data (V{sub p}, V{sub s} and total density) that is normally required for its determination. The identified correlation is mathematically expressed by means of adjustment equations that reproduce in all of the cases the experimental values with a standard error of estimation within 10%, for the universe of rocks studied and with much less error for different specific lithological groups. The application methodologies of the correlation found for different cases of practical interest, are described. [Espanol] A partir del analisis de una base de datos experimentales sobre la velocidad de las ondas compresionales (V{sub p}) y de las ondas transversales (V{sub s}) de un conjunto de 97 especimenes de rocas sedimentarias, igneas y metamorficas, se identifica la existencia de cuatro tipos de correlaciones empiricas muy bien comportadas entre las constantes elasticas dinamicas y las velocidades V{sub p} y V{sub s}. Estas correlaciones permiten estimar con muy buena aproximacion las constantes elasticas dinamicas de las rocas sin tener que disponer del conjunto completo de datos (V{sub p}, V{sub s} y densidad total) que normalmente se requieren para su determinacion. Las correlaciones identificadas se expresan matematicamente mediante ecuaciones de ajuste que reproducen en todos los casos los valores experimentales con un error estandar de estimacion dentro de 10% para el universo de las rocas estudiadas, y con mucho menor error para diferentes grupos litologicos

  9. Evaluation of Resident Evacuations in Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel.

  10. The Empire Strikes Back

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micklitz, Hans-W.; Pałka, Przemysław; Panagis, Yannis

    2017-01-01

    The authors argue that it is possible to partly automate the process of abstract control of fairness of clauses in online consumer contracts. The authors present a theoretical and empirical argument for this claim, including a brief presentation of the software they have designed. This type...

  11. Auditory Imagery: Empirical Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Timothy L.

    2010-01-01

    The empirical literature on auditory imagery is reviewed. Data on (a) imagery for auditory features (pitch, timbre, loudness), (b) imagery for complex nonverbal auditory stimuli (musical contour, melody, harmony, tempo, notational audiation, environmental sounds), (c) imagery for verbal stimuli (speech, text, in dreams, interior monologue), (d)…

  12. Essays in empirical microeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Péter, A.N.

    2016-01-01

    The empirical studies in this thesis investigate various factors that could affect individuals' labor market, family formation and educational outcomes. Chapter 2 focuses on scheduling as a potential determinant of individuals' productivity. Chapter 3 looks at the role of a family factor on

  13. Empirically sampling Universal Dependencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schluter, Natalie; Agic, Zeljko

    2017-01-01

    Universal Dependencies incur a high cost in computation for unbiased system development. We propose a 100% empirically chosen small subset of UD languages for efficient parsing system development. The technique used is based on measurements of model capacity globally. We show that the diversity o...

  14. Empirical Music Aesthetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grund, Cynthia M.

    musical performance and reception is inspired by traditional approaches within aesthetics, but it also challenges some of the presuppositions inherent in them. As an example of such work I present a research project in empirical music aesthetics begun last year and of which I am a team member....

  15. Empirical research and logotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulenberg, Stefan E

    2003-08-01

    The purpose of this paper was to outline suggestions for future logotherapy applications and research. Empirical studies are available on logotherapy constructs, but additional research is sorely needed. The psychometrics of logotherapy measures need to be expanded. Carefully conducted experimental studies may aid in refining long-standing logotherapy concepts and supporting or refuting new ones.

  16. Uterine Perforation During Dilation and Evacuation Prior to Fetal Extraction--Now What? A Case Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Melissa J; York, Sloane; Hammond, Cassing; Gawron, Lori

    2015-01-01

    Uterine perforation is an infrequent but serious complication of dilation and evacuation (O&E). The purpose of this case report is to describe management strategies once a uterine perforation is identified. A 15-year-old female at 15 weeks' gestation presented to a freestanding clinic for elective abortion. After serial cervical dilation, omentum was seen in the suction curette. The patient was transferred to a nearby hospital, she underwent an exploratory laparotomy. A 1.5-cm anterior uterine perforation was found. The uterus was evacuated under direct visualization prior to repair of the defect. Uterine perforation during D&E often requires laparotomy to repair the defect and to evaluate for injury to adjacent organs. Evacuation can be completed transcervically under direct visualization or through the perforation site.

  17. Laboratory evaluation of 10 heat and moisture exchangers using simulated aeromedical evacuation conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suliman, Huda S; Fecura, Stephen E; Baskin, Jonathan; Kalns, John E

    2011-06-01

    Heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) are used for airway humidification in mechanically ventilated patients and have been evaluated only under hospital conditions. U.S. Air Force aeromedical evacuation transports are performed under rugged conditions further complicated by the cold and dry environment in military aircrafts, and HMEs are used to provide airway humidification for patients. This study evaluated 10 commercial HMEs using a test system that simulated aeromedical evacuation conditions. Although the American National Standards Institute recommends inspired air to be at an absolute humidity value of > or = 30 mg/L for mechanically ventilated patients, the highest absolute humidity by any HME was approximately 20 mg/L. Although none of the HMEs were able to maintain a temperature high enough to achieve the humidity standard of the American National Standards Institute, the clinical significance of this standard may be less important than the relative humidity maintained in the respired air, especially on evacuation flights of short duration.

  18. The Swedish study of Irrigation-fluid temperature in the evacuation of Chronic subdural hematoma (SIC!)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartley, Andreas; Jakola, Asgeir S; Bartek, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is one of the most common conditions encountered in neurosurgical practice. Recurrence, observed in 5-30% of patients, is a major clinical problem. The temperature of the irrigation fluid used during evacuation of the hematoma might theoretically...... for warmed fluids during surgery. Our main aim is to investigate the effect of irrigation-fluid temperature on recurrence rates and clinical outcomes after cSDH evacuation using a multicenter randomized controlled trial design. METHODS: The study will be conducted in three neurosurgical departments...... and health-related quality of life. DISCUSSION: Irrigation-fluid temperature might influence recurrence rates in the evacuation of chronic subdural hematomas. We present a study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial investigating our hypothesis that irrigation fluid at body temperature...

  19. Mother Nature versus human nature: public compliance with evacuation and quarantine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuell, Mary-Elise; Cukor, Jeffrey

    2011-04-01

    Effectively controlling the spread of contagious illnesses has become a critical focus of disaster planning. It is likely that quarantine will be a key part of the overall public health strategy utilised during a pandemic, an act of bioterrorism or other emergencies involving contagious agents. While the United States lacks recent experience of large-scale quarantines, it has considerable accumulated experience of large-scale evacuations. Risk perception, life circumstance, work-related issues, and the opinions of influential family, friends and credible public spokespersons all play a role in determining compliance with an evacuation order. Although the comparison is not reported elsewhere to our knowledge, this review of the principal factors affecting compliance with evacuations demonstrates many similarities with those likely to occur during a quarantine. Accurate identification and understanding of barriers to compliance allows for improved planning to protect the public more effectively. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  20. The Application Modular Floating Pontoon to Support Floods Disaster Evacuation System in Heavy Populated Residential Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Fauzan Zakki

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available During floods disaster in the heavy populated residential area, the lack of existing life saving appliances system such as rubber boat and wooden boat were not able to evacuate the disaster victims spontaneously in mass. The condition might be explained since the rubber boat and wooden boat have limited occupant capacity. Based on the conditions, the main objectives of the research are focused on the evaluation of the application of modular floating pontoon as multipurpose floating equipment to support floods disaster evacuation process. The investigation of the modular floating pontoon performance such as hydrostatics characteristics, the equilibrium condition and the intact stability was studied using strip theory and Krylov’s method. Furthermore, the strength analysis of the modular floating pontoon structure was calculated using finite element method. The results show that the modular floating pontoon is reliable to support the evacuation process.

  1. Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Schmidtlein, Mathew; Schelling, John; Frazier, T.

    2016-01-01

    Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

  2. A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yu; Wang, Weijie; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Yanfeng; Yang, Yuanjian

    2014-01-01

    Conducting a real aircraft evacuation trial is oftentimes unaffordable as it is extremely expensive and may cause severe injury to participants. Simulation models as an alternative have been used to overcome the aforementioned issues in recent years. This paper proposes a new simulation model for emergency evacuation of civil aircraft. Its unique features and advantages over the existing models are twofold: (1) passengers' critical physical characteristics, e.g. waist size, gender, age, and disabilities, which impact the movement and egress time of individual evacuee from a statistical viewpoint, are taken into account in the new model. (2) Improvements are made to enhance the accuracy of the simulation model from three aspects. First, the staggered mesh discretization method together with the agent-based approach is utilized to simulate movements of individual passengers in an emergency evacuation process. Second, each node discretized to represent cabin space in the new model can contain more than one passenger if they are moving in the same direction. Finally, each individual passenger is able to change his/her evacuation route in a real-time manner based upon the distance from the current position to the target exit and the queue length. The effectiveness of the proposed simulation model is demonstrated on Boeing 767-300 aircraft. - Highlights: • A new simulation model of aircraft emergency evacuation is developed. • Some critical physical characteristics of passengers', e.g. waist size, gender, age, and disabilities, are taken into account in the new model. • An agent-based approach along with a multi-level fine network representation is used. • Passengers are able to change their evacuation routes in a real-time manner based upon distance and length of queue

  3. Simulation of Evacuated Tube Collector and Storage of Hybrid Air-conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Ahmed Abdulhussain

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The CFD transient simulation of superheating the refrigerant R410 through the heat exchange with the evacuated tube water heating system of the hybrid split air conditioner that is subjected to solar radiation of constant intensity with the contribution of fan accelerated air is performed by the ANSYS-CFX code. The comparison with experimental work showed a minimum percentage error 8% of the predicted refrigerant evaporative heat transfer with storage tank horizontal tubing. In addition, the results denoted high absorption rate for the evacuated tubes, reducing highly reversed heat transmission for the circulated water. 

  4. Preclinical Evaluation of the Effects of Aeromedical Evacuation on Military-Relevant Casualties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    histopathological analysis obtained from animal experiments and prepare reports; interpret data and make adequate changes for subsequent experimental design...evacuation standards. In animal models of combat trauma, we will address the effects of timing, altitude, and oxygen supplementation during...7 9. Appendices…………………………………………………………… 7 DM 167040 “The Effects of Aero-medical Evacuation on Militarily Relevant Animal Models of Trauma”; PI: Dr

  5. Evacuation Behavior and Problems: Findings and Implications from the Research Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-07-01

    process with different emergent stages involving various kinds of contingencies. Evacuation does not always develop in a singular and linear path, but...a PERID COVFEOf 1 ACUATION JVAVIOR AND ROBLEMS: 1IDINGS AND Final :V, CUA’i, 0 m m iz:’tm /l/79-7/31/80I I14PLICATIOW FRCM MJ R CH T ITERATURE I //9...something else. It is easy with this imagery to, therefore, think of evacuation as following a linear and singu- lar path or sequence. That is, a disaster is

  6. Hypertensive thalamic hematoma treated by CT stereotactic evacuation (with two cases reports)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hongsheng; Zhu Fengqing

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To investigate new surgical method to treat hypertensive thalamic hematoma. Methods: Two medial-degree coma patients with hypertensive thalamic hematoma were treated by CT stereotactic evacuation. Results: One week after operation the two patients regained consciousness. The function of paraplegic appendage restored partly, and one patient could take care of himself. Conclusion: CT stereotactic evacuation to treat hypertensive thalamic hematoma has the advantages of small trauma, little complication and good clinical results. The authors suggest that it be selected firstly in treating hypertensive thalamic hematoma

  7. Injuries sustained during major evacuation of the high-speed catamaran St Malo off Jersey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockey, D; Purcell-Jones, G; Davies, C T; Clifford, R P

    1997-04-01

    The difficulties and injuries sustained during the emergency evacuation of 308 passengers and crew from the fast passenger catamaran M.V. St Malo are described. The vessel had hit a rock off Jersey and was listing severely. Fifty-three passengers were injured, 32 requiring hospital admission; one with a myocardial infarction and 31 with musculoskeletal injuries. Eighteen patients required operation for severe lower limb injuries. Increased numbers of emergency exits and the introduction of evacuation chutes to this type of twin-hulled vessel are recommended.

  8. Street Lighting Infrastructure Assessment Using Discriminant and GIS Method on Mount Merapi Evacuation Road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izdihar, R. P.; Maryono, M.; Widjonarko, W.; Rahayu, S.

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to assess street lighting infrastructure in rural-urban of Mount Merapi Evacuation road. Three evacuation road/corridor; Mriyan-Boyolali, Wonodoyo-Boyolali and Samiran-Boyolali are selected as case study. By using discriminant this study examine 6 variables namely type of lamp, physical component, height, time, power and cons consumption. In addition this study also using GIS method to assessing geographical feature as of previous result. According to the discriminant analysis, the characteristic of street lighting could be distinguished as two characteristic, while from the GIS assessment, the study found three characteristic of geographical street lighting feature.

  9. Thermal conductivity of evacuated perlite at low temperatures as a function of load and load history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dube, W. P.; Sparks, L. L.; Slifka, A. J.

    1991-01-01

    Perlite, a powdered insulation, is commonly used in large cryogenic storage dewars. When these dewars are thermally cycled, the perlite in the evacuated space between the inner and outer vessels of the dewar experiences a changing mechanical load due to thermal expansion and contraction of the inner vessel. Thermal conductivity data were obtained using a boil-off calorimeter. The apparent thermal conductivity of evacuated perlite increases strongly with applied load. Hysteretic behavior of the conductivity was observed when perlite was subjected to cyclic mechanical loading.

  10. Results of psychosomatic screening of people having suffered from the Chernobyl accident and evacuated from the alienation area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bronskij, V.I.; Tolkanets, S.V.

    2000-01-01

    A psychosomatic screening of 105 persons evacuated from the alienation area was fulfilled. The received data were compared with those of migrants from areas from which people were evacuated later. Sociometric, psychometric, adaptive characteristics evidence of close relations between conditions of living and worsening of psychosomatic health. The tendency to a higher frequency of psychoorganic syndrome in that group was revealed

  11. Gazprom: the new empire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillemoles, A.; Lazareva, A.

    2008-01-01

    Gazprom is conquering the world. The Russian industrial giant owns the hugest gas reserves and enjoys the privilege of a considerable power. Gazprom edits journals, owns hospitals, airplanes and has even built cities where most of the habitants work for him. With 400000 workers, Gazprom represents 8% of Russia's GDP. This inquiry describes the history and operation of this empire and show how its has become a masterpiece of the government's strategy of russian influence reconquest at the world scale. Is it going to be a winning game? Are the corruption affairs and the expected depletion of resources going to weaken the empire? The authors shade light on the political and diplomatic strategies that are played around the crucial dossier of the energy supply. (J.S.)

  12. Empires, Modernisation and Modernities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony Ballantyne

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In examining four recent books, this essay explores some key facets of contemporary scholarship on empire and the making of the modern world. Drawing on Dipesh Chakrabarty’s arguments about the often contingent relationship between modernisation as a set of material and institutional transformations and modernity as a cultural sensibility, it argues that the unfolding of the modern was messy, uneven, and remained in process until the age of decolonisation. The essay suggests that the range of modern formations that emerged out of empire-building were profoundly imprinted by local socio-political patterns and the weight of precolonial cultural traditions, meaning that modernisation never played out as an entirely homogenising force.

  13. Essays in empirical microeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Péter, A.N.

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation is comprised of three papers using empirical methods to study issues in public and social economics. My first paper, co-authored with Julian Betts, analyzes the performance of San Diego's charter schools using fixed-effect methods on panel student data. We find that charter school performance in San Diego varies by subject matter, grades served, school type and years of operation. In many cases, we find that charter school performance is indistinguishable from that of tradit...

  14. Trade and Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bang, Peter Fibiger

    2007-01-01

    This articles seeks to establish a new set of organizing concepts for the analysis of the Roman imperial economy from Republic to late antiquity: tributary empire, port-folio capitalism and protection costs. Together these concepts explain better economic developments in the Roman world than the ...... much used notion of an imperial market economy.  Roman imperial government was to weak to provide the institutional supports needed by a well functioning laissez-faire economy....

  15. Advancing empirical resilience research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalisch, Raffael; Müller, Marianne B; Tüscher, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    We are delighted by the broad, intense, and fruitful discussion in reaction to our target article. A major point we take from the many comments is a prevailing feeling in the research community that we need significantly and urgently to advance resilience research, both by sharpening concepts and theories and by conducting empirical studies at a much larger scale and with a much more extended and sophisticated methodological arsenal than is the case currently. This advancement can be achieved only in a concerted international collaborative effort. In our response, we try to argue that an explicitly atheoretical, purely observational definition of resilience and a transdiagnostic, quantitative study framework can provide a suitable basis for empirically testing different competing resilience theories (sects. R1, R2, R6, R7). We are confident that it should be possible to unite resilience researchers from different schools, including from sociology and social psychology, behind such a pragmatic and theoretically neutral research strategy. In sections R3 to R5, we further specify and explain the positive appraisal style theory of resilience (PASTOR). We defend PASTOR as a comparatively parsimonious and translational theory that makes sufficiently concrete predictions to be evaluated empirically.

  16. A large scale evacuation. Tasks of evacuator. Collapse of medical system at the time of areal indication for large scale indoor refuge and problems for restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

    2012-01-01

    About the evacuation from disasters of quake/tsunami on Mar. 11, 2011, and Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident (Mar. 12-15), described are its social background, influence on the local society, medicare and works of medical staff. The disaster immediately blocked means of communication and transportation in Minamisoma City, and the Japan government indicated the indoor refuge of residents in the zone at 3 km distance from the Plant, then at 20 km on 12th and 30 km on 15th. About 123 thousands residents nearby had to evacuate after all: the largest scale of evacuation by the nuclear accident in Japan. Author's Minamisoma Citizens' Hospital (MCH) was located at 23 km from the Plant. Residents could know about the government indications through various media before their official announcements, and many had begun to evacuate. MCH accepted >100 victims, and measured their contamination as well as the ambient dose, using GM counter from 12th. The highest dose was 16 mc-Sv/h on 20th. Following the hydrogen explosion of no.3 reactor on 14th, residents were bewildered by the indication of indoor refuge, which impacted social activities like stoppage of commerce and brought about residents' mental conflict and solitary. Movement of all 107 hospitalized patients to neighboring facilities in Niigata prefecture started on 18th and actually completed on 20th with help from Self Defense Force. Children, pregnant women and certain patients were prohibited to enter the newly defined emergent evacuation preparation (EEP) zone on Apr. 11, within 30 km afar from the Plant, which inhibited the areal restoration and medicare. At present that 1.5 years have passed since the disaster, the number of medical stuff is quite insufficient near the old EEP zone. There, now 2/3 of population before the disaster are beginning their life, and most are elderly, suggesting the necessity of rearrangement of medical systems which were seemingly once collapsed. (T.T.)

  17. Usability and Visual Communication for Southern California Tsunami Evacuation Information: The importance of information design in disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaenichen, C.; Schandler, S.; Wells, M.; Danielsen, T.

    2015-12-01

    Evacuation behavior, including participation and response, is rarely an individual and isolated process and the outcomes are usually systemic. Ineffective evacuation information can easily attribute to delayed evacuation response. Delays increase demands on already extended emergency personal, increase the likelihood of traffic congestion, and can cause harm to self and property. From an information design perspective, addressing issues in cognitive recall and emergency psychology, this case study examines evacuation messaging including written, audio, and visual presentation of information, and describes the application of design principles and role of visual communication for Southern California tsunami evacuation outreach. The niche of this project is the inclusion of cognitive processing as the driving influence when making formal design decisions and measurable data from a 4-year cognitive recall study to support the solution. Image included shows a tsunami evacaution map before and after the redesign.

  18. Literature Search for Federal Highway Administration (ITS-JPO) : assessment of state of the practice and state of the art in evacuation transportation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-02-06

    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  19. Task two : literature search for Federal Highway Administration (ITS-JPO) : assessment of state of the practice and state of the art in evacuation transportation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  20. The evacuation of cairns hospitals due to severe tropical cyclone Yasi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Mark; Stone, Theona; Stone, Richard; Burns, Jan; Reeves, Jim; Cullen, Paul; Humble, Ian; Finn, Emmeline; Aitken, Peter; Elcock, Mark; Gillard, Noel

    2012-09-01

    On February 2, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, the largest cyclone to cross the Australian coast and a system the size of Hurricane Katrina, threatened the city of Cairns. As a result, the Cairns Base Hospital (CBH) and Cairns Private Hospital (CPH) were both evacuated, the hospitals were closed, and an alternate emergency medical center was established in a sports stadium 15 km from the Cairns central business district. This article describes the events around the evacuation of 356 patients, staff, and relatives to Brisbane (approximately 1,700 km away by road), closure of the hospitals, and the provision of a temporary emergency medical center for 28 hours during the height of the cyclone. Our experience highlights the need for adequate and exercised hospital evacuation plans; the need for clear command and control with identified decision-makers; early decision-making on when to evacuate; having good communication systems with redundancy; ensuring that patients are adequately identified and tracked and have their medications and notes; ensuring adequate staff, medications, and oxygen for holding patients; and planning in detail the alternate medical facility safety and its role, function, and equipment. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  1. Pre-evacuation hCG glycoforms in uneventful complete hydatidiform mole and persistent trophoblastic disease.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, C.M.G.; Kerkmeijer, L.G.W.; Ariaens, H.J.; Steen, R. van der; Massuger, L.F.A.G.; Sweep, F.C.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the glycoform distribution patterns of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) obtained by chromatofocusing in pre-evacuation serum are different for patients who will eventually develop into persistent trophoblastic disease in case of complete hydatidiform mole

  2. Evacuation simulation using Hybrid Space Discretisation and Application to Large Underground Rail Tunnel Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chooramun, N.; Lawrence, P. J.; Galea, E. R.

    2017-08-01

    In all evacuation simulation tools, the space through which agents navigate and interact is represented by one the following methods, namely Coarse regions, Fine nodes and Continuous regions. Each of the spatial representation methods has its benefits and limitations. For instance, the Coarse approach allows simulations to be processed very rapidly, but is unable to represent the interactions of the agents from an individual perspective; the Continuous approach provides a detailed representation of agent movement and interaction but suffers from relatively poor computational performance. The Fine nodal approach presents a compromise between the Continuous and Coarse approaches such that it allows agent interaction to be modelled while providing good computational performance. Our approach for representing space in an evacuation simulation tool differs such that it allows evacuation simulations to be run using a combination of Coarse regions, Fine nodes and Continuous regions. This approach, which we call Hybrid Spatial Discretisation (HSD), is implemented within the buildingEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The HSD incorporates the benefits of each of the spatial representation methods whilst providing an optimal environment for representing agent movement and interaction. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the HSD through its application to a moderately large case comprising of an underground rail tunnel station with a population of 2,000 agents.

  3. Means of escape provisions and evacuation simulation of public building in Malaysia and Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Taib, Nooriati; Ying, Choo Siew

    2017-10-01

    The Uniform Building By-law 1984 of Malaysia is the legal document governing fire safety requirements in buildings. Its prescriptive nature has made the requirements out dated from the viewpoint of current performance based approach in most developed countries. The means of escape provisions is a critical requirement to safeguard occupants' safety in fire especially in public buildings. As stipulated in the UBBL 1984, the means of escape provisions includes sufficient escape routes, travel distance, protection of escape routes, etc. designated as means to allow occupants to escape within a safe period of time. This research aims at investigating the effectiveness of those provisions in public buildings during evacuation process involving massive crowd during emergencies. This research includes a scenario-based study on evacuation processes using two software i.e. PyroSim, a crowd modelling software to conduct smoke study and Pathfinder to stimulate evacuation model of building in Malaysia and Singapore as comparative study. The results show that the buildings used as case study were designed according to Malaysian UBBL 1984 and Singapore Firecode, 2013 respectively provide relative safe means of escape. The simulations of fire and smoke and coupled with simulation of evacuation have demonstrated that although there are adequate exits designated according to fire requirements, the impact of the geometry of atriums on the behavior of fire and smoke have significant effect on escape time especially for unfamiliar user of the premises.

  4. Tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radosavljevic, V; Belojevic, G; Pavlovic, N

    2017-05-01

    To propose a simple and effective tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood. Virtual testing of a tool in a real event. A four-component tool was applied to build an alternative scenario of the catastrophic river flood in Obrenovac, Serbia, on May 2014. The components of this tool are: (1) the amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (2) upstream river discharge above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (3) upstream river level above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; and (4) worsening of the hydrometeorological situation in the following 48 h. In the early morning of 16 May 2014, a rapid river wave flooded 80% of the Obrenovac territory. There were 13 deaths due to drowning. Application of the study tool shows that these lives could have been saved, as the score to recommend general evacuation was reached 1 day before the flooding. The application of this tool to two previous great floods in Serbia shows that the score to recommend general evacuation was reached either 1 day before or on the onset of flash flooding. Due to its simplicity, this tool is universally applicable to facilitate decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood, and it should be further tested in future similar catastrophes. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting delay in residents' decisions on defending v. evacuating through antecedents of decision avoidance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNeill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2015-01-01

    Journal compilation © IAWF 2015. In the event of a wildfire, Australian residents of wildfire-prone areas have a choice to defend their home or evacuate early. However, rather than deciding on and preparing for one of these fire-responses ahead of time, most residents delay deciding on defending ...

  6. Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahsan Bapon, N.; Takeuchi, K.; Vink, K.; Warner, J.F.

    2016-01-01

    Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila

  7. Impact of early surgical evacuation of sylvian hematoma on clinical course and outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutoh, Tatsushi; Ishikawa, Tatsuya; Moroi, Junta; Suzuki, Akifumi; Yasui, Nobuyuki

    2010-01-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of early surgical evacuation of sylvian hematoma caused by ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysm on clinical outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage. Hospital records and computed tomography scans for 26 patients with MCA aneurysm who underwent surgical clipping between June 2001 and January 2008 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients presented with sylvian hematoma associated with subarachnoid hemorrhage and received surgery at 7.9±3.6 (mean±standard deviation) hours of ictus. They were divided postoperatively into two groups, achievement (n=16) and non-achievement (n=10) of extensive hematoma evacuation, and their clinical course and functional outcomes were compared. The frequencies of delayed ischemic neurological deficit and vasospasm-related cerebral infarction were significantly less (p<0.05) in the achievement group. Better functional outcomes were obtained in patients with successful evacuation (p<0.05), as assessed by improvement of hemiparesis on manual muscle testing scale at postoperative 1-month follow up and by the modified Rankin scale at postoperative 3 and 6 months. Clinical outcomes were also better in the achievement group. These results suggest that better clinical course and outcome can be expected in patients who undergo early successful hematoma evacuation with surgical clipping of a ruptured MCA aneurysm. (author)

  8. Technological advances in evacuation planning and emergency management : current state of the art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-03-01

    Evacuation of people in the event of hazard is one of basic problems of human society. From early : ages people planned their habitat with possibility of hazards in mind. For instance, one of The Seven : Wonders of the World, the Temple of Artemis, w...

  9. 76 FR 81885 - Airworthiness Directives; Goodrich Evacuation Systems Approved Under Technical Standard Order...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-29

    ..., we are reopening the comment period to allow the public the chance to comment on these proposed... prevent loss of pressure in the escape slides/rafts after an emergency evacuation, which could result in inadequate buoyancy to support the raft's passenger capacity during ditching and increase the chance for...

  10. 76 FR 15229 - Airworthiness Directives; Goodrich Evacuation Systems Approved Under Technical Standard Order...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-21

    ... prevent loss of pressure in the escape slides/rafts after an emergency evacuation, which could result in inadequate buoyancy to support the raft's passenger capacity during ditching and increase the chance for... pressure. We issued that AD to prevent loss of pressure in the escape slides/rafts after an emergency...

  11. Correlation of Prenatal Diagnosis and Pathology Findings Following Dilation and Evacuation for Fetal Anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boecking, Carolin A; Drey, Eleanor A; Kerns, Jennifer L; Finkbeiner, Walter E

    2017-02-01

    -Despite increased use of dilation and evacuation in the setting of fetuses with developmental anomalies, the pathology examination of fragmented specimens obtained by this technique has been understudied. -To correlate pathologic findings in second-trimester fetal dilation and evacuation specimens with prenatal diagnoses established through ultrasound and/or chromosome studies to determine the value of pathology examination for supplementing or correcting clinical diagnoses. -In this retrospective study, clinical and pathology findings were correlated in 448 dilation and evacuation specimens performed for second-trimester termination of pregnancy for fetal anomalies discovered on ultrasound examination (278 cases) or chromosome analysis (170 cases). -In 109 of the 170 cases with chromosomal abnormalities (64%), pathologists identified at least 1 congenital defect associated with the respective karyotype. In 278 cases with ultrasound-detected anomalies, pathologists confirmed the major congenital defect in 116 fetal specimens (42%). Evaluating for congenital central nervous system and body wall/diaphragm pathologic findings proved challenging owing to tissue disruption. However, taking all categories into account, pathology studies corrected ultrasound diagnoses in 152 of 413 cases (37%) and yielded additional diagnostic findings in 137 cases (33%). -In a substantial number of cases, examination of fragmented fetuses corrected or refined prenatal diagnoses, demonstrating a role for detailed pathology examination of dilation and evacuation specimens in quality control of prenatal imaging studies and for potentially aiding subsequent genetic counseling.

  12. 21 CFR 882.5850 - Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... bladder by reflex means or by the intermittent use of catheters. The stimulator consists of an implanted... an external transmitter for transmitting the stimulating pulses across the patient's skin to the... cord stimulator for bladder evacuation shall have an approved PMA or a declared completed PDP in effect...

  13. A grouping method based on grid density and relationship for crowd evacuation simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Hong; Liu, Guang-peng; Li, Liang; Moore, Philip; Hu, Bin

    2017-05-01

    Psychological factors affect the movement of people in the competitive or panic mode of evacuation, in which the density of pedestrians is relatively large and the distance among them is small. In this paper, a crowd is divided into groups according to their social relations to simulate the actual movement of crowd evacuation more realistically and increase the attractiveness of the group based on social force model. The force of group attraction is the synthesis of two forces; one is the attraction of the individuals generated by their social relations to gather, and the other is that of the group leader to the individuals within the group to ensure that the individuals follow the leader. The synthetic force determines the trajectory of individuals. The evacuation process is demonstrated using the improved social force model. In the improved social force model, the individuals with close social relations gradually present a closer and coordinated action while following the leader. In this paper, a grouping algorithm is proposed based on grid density and relationship via computer simulation to illustrate the features of the improved social force model. The definition of the parameters involved in the algorithm is given, and the effect of relational value on the grouping is tested. Reasonable numbers of grids and weights are selected. The effectiveness of the algorithm is shown through simulation experiments. A simulation platform is also established using the proposed grouping algorithm and the improved social force model for crowd evacuation simulation.

  14. 77 FR 60676 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Usage of Elevators for Occupant Evacuation...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-04

    ... Collection; Comment Request; Usage of Elevators for Occupant Evacuation Questionnaire AGENCY: National... Commerce, as part of its continuing effort to reduce paperwork and respondent burden, invites the general...., Washington, DC 20230 (or via the Internet at [email protected] ). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Requests for...

  15. State of the art in evacuation time estimate studies for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbanik, T.E.; Jamison, J.D.

    1992-03-01

    In the event of a major accident at a commercial nuclear power station, exposure of the public to airborne radioactive materials can be prevented or greatly reduced by evacuating the area immediately surrounding the reactor site. Reactor licensees are required to conduct studies to estimate the time needed to evacuate the public from the area surrounding each nuclear power station. The results of such studies are used by regulatory personnel and emergency planners to assess the potential effectiveness of protective responses for the public. The time required to evacuate the public from a 10-mile emergency planning radius is estimated by analyzing the available transportation facilities and other relevant conditions within this radius. To support the analysis, data must be collected and assumptions must be made regarding the transportation facilities, the size and characteristics of the population and other conditions in the planning zone. This report describes standard approaches and provides recommendations regarding the relevant information, assumptions and methods to be used in performing evacuation time estimate studies

  16. An Analysis of the Hungnam Evacuation Based on Current and Emerging Joint Doctrine

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-06-07

    gatehouse . This created a gap of sixteen feet that could not be bypassed, and the Marines had no bridging with them. This gap was also over a chasm...Hungnam to assist in its defense. There was virtually no enemy effort to hamper the evacuation at Wonsan. The last ships left Wonsan on 10 December

  17. Real-Time Traffic Information for Emergency Evacuation Operations: Phase A Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzese, Oscar [ORNL; Zhang, Li [Mississippi State University (MSU); Mahmoud, Anas M. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Lascurain, Mary Beth [ORNL; Wen, Yi [Mississippi State University (MSU)

    2010-05-01

    There are many instances in which it is possible to plan ahead for an emergency evacuation (e.g., an explosion at a chemical processing facility). For those cases, if an accident (or an attack) were to happen, then the best evacuation plan for the prevailing network and weather conditions would be deployed. In other cases (e.g., the derailment of a train transporting hazardous materials), there may not be any previously developed plan to be implemented and decisions must be made ad-hoc on how to proceed with an emergency evacuation. In both situations, the availability of real-time traffic information plays a critical role in the management of the evacuation operations. To improve public safety during a vehicular emergency evacuation it is necessary to detect losses of road capacity (due to incidents, for example) as early as possible. Once these bottlenecks are identified, re-routing strategies must be determined in real-time and deployed in the field to help dissipate the congestion and increase the efficiency of the evacuation. Due to cost constraints, only large urban areas have traffic sensor deployments that permit access to some sort of real-time traffic information; any evacuation taking place in any other areas of the country would have to proceed without real-time traffic information. The latter was the focus of this SERRI/DHS (Southeast Region Research Initiative/Department of Homeland Security) sponsored project. That is, the main objective on the project was to improve the operations during a vehicular emergency evacuation anywhere by using newly developed real-time traffic-information-gathering technologies to assess traffic conditions and therefore to potentially detect incidents on the main evacuation routes. Phase A of the project consisted in the development and testing of a prototype system composed of sensors that are engineered in such a way that they can be rapidly deployed in the field where and when they are needed. Each one of these sensors

  18. Evacuation of a Tertiary Neonatal Centre: Lessons from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwata, Osuke; Kawase, Akihiko; Iwai, Masanori; Wada, Kazuko

    2017-01-01

    Newborn infants hospitalised in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are vulnerable to natural disasters. However, publications on evacuation from NICUs are sparse. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes caused serious damage to Kumamoto City Hospital and its level III regional core NICU. Local/neighbour NICU teams and the disaster-communication team of a neonatal academic society cooperated to evacuate 38 newborn infants from the ward. The aim of this paper was to highlight potential key factors to improve emergency NICU evacuation and coordination of hospital transportation following natural disasters. Background variables including clinical risk scores and timing/destination of transportation were compared between infants, who subsequently were transferred to destinations outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, and their peers. All but 1 of the infants were successfully evacuated from their NICU within 8 h. One very-low-birth-weight infant developed moderate hypothermia following transportation. Fourteen infants were transferred to NICUs outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, which was associated with the diagnosis of congenital heart disease, dependence on respiratory support, higher risk scores, and longer elapsed time from the decision to departure. There was difficulty in arranging helicopter transportation because the coordination office of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team had requisitioned most air/ground ambulances and only helped arrange ground transportations for 13 low-risk infants. Transportation for all 10 high-risk infants (risk scores greater than or equal to the upper quartile) was arranged by local/neighbour NICUs. Although the overall evacuation process was satisfactory, potential risks of relying on the adult-based emergency transportation system were highlighted. A better system needs to be developed urgently to put appropriate priority on vulnerable infants. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Disaster Evacuation from Japan's 2011 Tsunami Disaster and the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Reiko

    2013-01-01

    The triple disaster that hit the Tohoku region of Japan on 11 March 2011 triggered a massive human displacement: more than 400,000 people evacuated their homes as a gigantic tsunami induced by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake engulfed the coastal areas, and the following nuclear accident in Fukushima released a large amount of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. This study analyses the disaster response, with a particular focus on evacuation of the population, and social consequences of this complex crisis, based on intensive fieldwork carried out one year after the catastrophe. It reveals that the responses of the Japanese authorities and population were significantly different between a natural disaster and an industrial (man-made) accident. Being prone to both earthquakes and tsunamis, Japan had been preparing itself against such risks for many years. A tsunami alert was immediately issued and the population knew how and where to evacuate. In contrast, the evacuation from the nuclear accident was organised in total chaos, as a severe accident or large-scale evacuation had never been envisaged -let alone exercised- before the disaster. The population was thus forced to flee with no information as to the gravity of the accident or radiation risk. In both cases, the risk perception prior to the catastrophe played a key role in determining the vulnerability of the population at the time of the crisis. While tsunami evacuees are struggling with a slow reconstruction process due to financial difficulties, nuclear evacuees are suffering from uncertainty as to their prospect of return. One year after the accident, the Japanese authorities began to encourage nuclear evacuees to return to the areas contaminated by radiation according to a newly established safety standard. This triggered a vivid controversy within the affected communities, creating a rift between those who trust the government's notion of safety and those who do not. The nuclear disaster has thus

  20. A spatial analysis of evacuation intentions at the Shoreham nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.H. Jr.; Zeigler, D.J.

    1984-01-01

    The evidence presented in this chapter suggests that decisions regarding the most appropriate actions to take during a radiological emergency are likely to be made at the individual household level and cannot be imposed on the population by governmental fiat. In light of this fact, two strategies are likely to enhance evacuation planning for radiological emergencies. First, federal, state and local emergency response planners should (1) accept the fact that human behavior cannot be controlled; (2) try to determine how the population is likely to react, and (3) capitalize on these behaviors by building them into the emergency response plans. Results of the Shoreham Evacuation Survey suggest, for example, that the ten mile (16 km) EPZ currently required by the NRC and FEMA should be extended to 25 miles (40 km) at the SNPS, in part accommodate the likely high degree of ''spontaneous evacuation,'' and in part to ensure that public exposure to radiation is minimal, in case of a radiological emergency at the plant. Second, emergency response planners also need to educate people about the importance of following directions in the event of a nuclear power plant accident. In the case of the SNPS, for example, the education program should be aimed not only at the zip code zones further from and west of the plant in which families (primarily young and with children) are likely to spontaneously evacuate (over-reactors), and also at those zones closer to and east of the plant in which the residents (primarily older and without children) may be included to ignore official orders to evacuate (under-reactors). These are the groups that either endanger society by congesting travel arteries (over-reactors) or themselves by remaining in place (under-reactors)

  1. Acute respiratory symptoms and evacuation-related behavior after exposure to chlorine gas leakage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Sung-Woo; Choi, Won-Jun; Yi, Min-Kee; Song, Seng-Ho; Lee, Dong-Hoon; Han, Sang-Hwan

    2016-01-01

    A study was performed on the accidental chlorine gas leakage that occurred in a factory of printed circuit boards manufactured without chlorine. Health examination was performed for all 52 workers suspected of exposure to chlorine gas, and their evacuation-related behaviors were observed in addition to analyzing the factors that affected the duration of their acute respiratory symptoms. Behavioral characteristics during the incidence of the accidental chlorine gas leakage, the estimated time of exposure, and the duration of subjective acute respiratory symptoms were investigated. In addition, clinical examination, chest radiography, and dental erosion test were performed. As variables that affected the duration of respiratory symptoms, dose group, body weight, age, sex, smoking, work period, and wearing a protective gear were included and analyzed by using the Cox proportional hazard model. Of 47 workers exposed to chlorine gas, 36 (77 %) developed more than one subjective symptom. The duration of the subjective symptoms according to exposure level significantly differed, with a median of 1 day (range, 0-5 days) in the low-exposure group and 2 days (range, 0-25 days) in the high-exposure group. Among the variables that affected the duration of the acute respiratory symptoms, which were analyzed by using the Cox proportional hazard model, only exposure level was significant (hazard ratio 2.087, 95 % CI = 1.119, 3.890). Regarding the evacuation-related behaviors, 22 workers (47 %) voluntarily evacuated to a safety zone immediately after recognizing the accidental exposure, but 25 workers (43 %) delayed evacuation until the start of mandatory evacuation (min 5, max 25 min). The duration of the subjective acute respiratory symptoms significantly differed between the low- and high-exposure groups. Among the 27 workers in the high-exposure group, 17 misjudged the toxicity after being aware of the gas leakage, which is a relatively high number.

  2. A Less Invasive Approach for Ruptured Aneurysm with Intracranial Hematoma: Coil Embolization Followed by Clot Evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Je Hoon; Koh, Jun Seok; Kim, Eui Jong [Kyung-Hee University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-02-15

    The presence of an intracerebral hematoma from a ruptured aneurysm is a negative predictive factor and it is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates even though clot evacuation followed by the neck clipping is performed. Endovascular coil embolization is a useful alternative procedure to reduce the surgical morbidity and mortality rates. We report here on our experiences with the alternative option of endovascular coil placement followed by craniotomy for clot evacuation. Among 312 patients who were admitted with intracerebral subarachnoid hemorrhage during the recent three years, 119 cases were treated via the endovascular approach. Nine cases were suspected to show aneurysmal intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) on CT scan and they underwent emergency cerebral angiograms. We performed immediate coil embolization at the same session of angiographic examination, and this was followed by clot evacuation. Seven cases showed to have ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms and two cases had internal carotid artery aneurysms. The clinical status on admission was Hunt-Hess grade (HHG) IV in seven patients and HHG III in two. Surgical evacuation of the clot was done immediately after the endovascular coil placement. The treatment results were a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of good recovery and moderate disability in six patients (66.7%). No mortality was recorded and no procedural morbidity was incurred by both the endovascular and direct craniotomy procedures. The results indicate that the coil embolization followed by clot evacuation for the patients with aneurysmal ICH may be a less invasive and quite a valuable alternative treatment for this patient group, and this warrants further investigation.

  3. A gastric evacuation model for three predatory gadoids and implications of using pooled field data of stomach contents to estimate food rations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2001-01-01

    evacuation rate was related by a negative power function to energy density of fish prey,) er an extended range from 3(.)4 to 11(.)5 kJ g (1) of the effector variable. Gastric evacuation of crustacean prey seemed to depend on the characteristics of their exoskeleton, Gastric evacuation of mixed meal, composed...

  4. Effect of a Bore Evacuator on Projectile In-Bore Dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carlucci, Donald

    2004-01-01

    Projectile base pressure measurements were taken in a 155-mm M284 gun tube using an Armament Research, Development and Engineering Center-designed instrumentation package incorporated into a modified...

  5. Epistemology and Empirical Investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlström, Kristoffer

    2008-01-01

    Recently, Hilary Kornblith has argued that epistemological investigation is substantially empirical. In the present paper, I will ¿rst show that his claim is not contingent upon the further and, admittedly, controversial assumption that all objects of epistemological investigation are natural kinds....... Then, I will argue that, contrary to what Kornblith seems to assume, this methodological contention does not imply that there is no need for attending to our epistemic concepts in epistemology. Understanding the make-up of our concepts and, in particular, the purposes they ¿ll, is necessary...

  6. Epistemology and Empirical Investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlström, Kristoffer

    2008-01-01

    Recently, Hilary Kornblith has argued that epistemological investigation is substantially empirical. In the present paper, I will ¿rst show that his claim is not contingent upon the further and, admittedly, controversial assumption that all objects of epistemological investigation are natural kinds....... Then, I will argue that, contrary to what Kornblith seems to assume, this methodological contention does not imply that there is no need for attending to our epistemic concepts in epistemology. Understanding the make-up of our concepts and, in particular, the purposes they ¿ll, is necessary...... for a proper acknowledgment of epistemology’s role in conceptual improvement...

  7. What 'empirical turn in bioethics'?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, Samia

    2010-10-01

    Uncertainty as to how we should articulate empirical data and normative reasoning seems to underlie most difficulties regarding the 'empirical turn' in bioethics. This article examines three different ways in which we could understand 'empirical turn'. Using real facts in normative reasoning is trivial and would not represent a 'turn'. Becoming an empirical discipline through a shift to the social and neurosciences would be a turn away from normative thinking, which we should not take. Conducting empirical research to inform normative reasoning is the usual meaning given to the term 'empirical turn'. In this sense, however, the turn is incomplete. Bioethics has imported methodological tools from empirical disciplines, but too often it has not imported the standards to which researchers in these disciplines are held. Integrating empirical and normative approaches also represents true added difficulties. Addressing these issues from the standpoint of debates on the fact-value distinction can cloud very real methodological concerns by displacing the debate to a level of abstraction where they need not be apparent. Ideally, empirical research in bioethics should meet standards for empirical and normative validity similar to those used in the source disciplines for these methods, and articulate these aspects clearly and appropriately. More modestly, criteria to ensure that none of these standards are completely left aside would improve the quality of empirical bioethics research and partly clear the air of critiques addressing its theoretical justification, when its rigour in the particularly difficult context of interdisciplinarity is what should be at stake.

  8. Methods for Calculating Empires in Quasicrystals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Fang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the empire problem for quasiperiodic tilings and the existing methods for generating the empires of the vertex configurations in quasicrystals, while introducing a new and more efficient method based on the cut-and-project technique. Using Penrose tiling as an example, this method finds the forced tiles with the restrictions in the high dimensional lattice (the mother lattice that can be cut-and-projected into the lower dimensional quasicrystal. We compare our method to the two existing methods, namely one method that uses the algorithm of the Fibonacci chain to force the Ammann bars in order to find the forced tiles of an empire and the method that follows the work of N.G. de Bruijn on constructing a Penrose tiling as the dual to a pentagrid. This new method is not only conceptually simple and clear, but it also allows us to calculate the empires of the vertex configurations in a defected quasicrystal by reversing the configuration of the quasicrystal to its higher dimensional lattice, where we then apply the restrictions. These advantages may provide a key guiding principle for phason dynamics and an important tool for self error-correction in quasicrystal growth.

  9. Assessing Evacuation Route Against Mount Merapi Hazard By Using Least Cost Path Method in Mriyan-Boyolali, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putri, L. K. R.; Maryono, M.

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to analyze the Least-Cost Path, an ArcGIS raster analysis, as a tool to find the evacuation route. The evacuation route of mount Merapi Eruption in Mriyan- Musuk of Boyolali regency in the scenario of sister village with Kiringan Village was selected as case study. There are 4 steps of analysis in this method such as; cost surface, cost distance cost backlink and cost path. This study analysis found 3 alternative routes which estimates 25-30 minute. These alternatives evacuation route are useful in distributing the flow of people when the eruption occurs.

  10. Planning Protective Action Decision-Making: Evacuate or Shelter-in-Place

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    2002-08-30

    Appropriate protective action recommendations or decisions (PARs/PADs) are needed to achieve maximum protection of a population at risk. The factors that affect protective action decisions are complex but fairly well documented. Protective action decisions take into account population distributions, projected or actual exposure to a chemical substance, availability of adequate shelters, evacuation time estimates, and other relevant factors. To choose in-place sheltering, there should be a reasonable assurance that the movement of people beyond their residence, workplace, or school will endanger the health and safety of the public more so than allowing them to remain in place. The decision to evacuate the public should be based on the reasonable assurance that the movement of people to an area outside of an affected area is in the best interest of their health and safety, and is of minimal risk to them. In reality, an evacuation decision is also a resource-dependent decision. The availability of transportation and other resources, including shelters, may factor heavily in the protective action decision-making process. All strategies to protect the health and safety of the public from a release of hazardous chemicals are explicitly considered during emergency decision making. Each institutional facility (such as hospitals, schools, day care centers, correctional facilities, assisted living facilities or nursing homes) in the community should be considered separately to determine what special protective actions may be necessary. Deciding whether to evacuate or to shelter-in-place is one of the most important questions facing local emergency planners responding to a toxic chemical release. That such a complex decision with such important potential consequences must be made with such urgency places tremendous responsibility on the planners and officials involved. Researchers have devoted considerable attention to the evacuation/shelter-in-place protection decision

  11. Suction Evacuation with Methotrexate as a Successful Treatment Modality for Caesarean Scar Pregnancies; Case series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumita Datta

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Pregnancy resulting from the implantation of an embryo within a scar of a previous Caesarean section is extremely rare. The diagnosis and treatment of Caesarean scar pregnancies (CSPs are challenging and the optimal course of treatment is still to be determined. We report a case series of six patients with CSPs who presented to the Royal Hospital in Muscat, Oman, between October 2012 and April 2014. All of the patients were successfully treated with systemic methotrexate and five patients underwent suction evacuation either before or after the methotrexate administration. The patients were followed up for a period of 6–9 weeks after treatment and recovered completely without any significant complications. Suction evacuation with methotrexate can therefore be considered an effective treatment option with good maternal outcomes.

  12. A methodology for evacuation design for urban areas: theoretical aspects and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, F.; Vitetta, A.

    2009-04-01

    This paper proposes an unifying approach for the simulation and design of a transportation system under conditions of incoming safety and/or security. Safety and security are concerned with threats generated by very different factors and which, in turn, generate emergency conditions, such as the 9/11, Madrid and London attacks, the Asian tsunami, and the Katrina hurricane; just considering the last five years. In transportation systems, when exogenous events happen and there is a sufficient interval time between the instant when the event happens and the instant when the event has effect on the population, it is possible to reduce the negative effects with the population evacuation. For this event in every case it is possible to prepare with short and long term the evacuation. For other event it is possible also to plan the real time evacuation inside the general risk methodology. The development of models for emergency conditions in transportation systems has not received much attention in the literature. The main findings in this area are limited to only a few public research centres and private companies. In general, there is no systematic analysis of the risk theory applied in the transportation system. Very often, in practice, the vulnerability and exposure in the transportation system are considered as similar variables, or in other worse cases the exposure variables are treated as vulnerability variables. Models and algorithms specified and calibrated in ordinary conditions cannot be directly applied in emergency conditions under the usual hypothesis considered. This paper is developed with the following main objectives: (a) to formalize the risk problem with clear diversification (for the consequences) in the definition of the vulnerability and exposure in a transportation system; thus the book offers improvements over consolidated quantitative risk analysis models, especially transportation risk analysis models (risk assessment); (b) to formalize a system

  13. A Case of Re-Expansion Pulmonary Edema after Rapid Pleural Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SH Shahbazi

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction & Objective: Pulmonary edema after chest tube insertion is a rare complication and is associated with high mortality. The cause of this phenomenon is not clear, although causes such as decrease in surfactant and inflammatory process have been defined. Early diagnosis and treatment decrease the mortality. This study introduces a case of re-expansion pulmonary edema after rapid pleural evacuation. Case: The case is a 4.5 y/o boy, a case of Tetralogy of Fallot, who developed respiratory distress after surgery (Total Correction in ICU of Namazi Hospital in 1385. Chest X ray showed pneumothorax of left lung. For the patient, chest tube was inserted and the symptoms improved. After few hours the patient developed tachypnea, tachycardia, and CXR showed pulmonary edema of left lung. Appropriate treatment was done for the patient and his condition improved. Conclusion: Pulmonary edema after sudden evacuation of pleura is a rare phenomenon and early diagnosis decreases the mortality.

  14. Low-cost evacuated-tube solar collector appendices. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beecher, D.T.

    1980-05-31

    A low cost solar heat energy collector module and array has been designed using the evacuated tube, selective absorber, air cooled concept. Glass tubing as used in fluorescent lamps with automatic sealing methods is a key feature of the evacuated tube design. A molded fiber glass concentrating reflector panel and sheet metal header assembly are proposed. Major design problems involved included the cost of materials and labor, thermal expansion and distortion problems, high stagnation and operating temperatures, isolation, thermal efficiency, sealing, joining, air pressure drop, and weight of the preassembled module. A cost of less than $5 per active square foot of collecting surface has been estimated for materials and labor of the module and its mounting frame.

  15. Research on the Improvements of the Assembly Areas, Evacuation Routes, and Shelters against Multiple Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, S.; Lee, Y. M.; Jeong, S. Y.; Hong, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    The considerable casualties were resulted at the tsunami shelters during the Great East Japan Tsunami on 11 March 2011. The one of the important lessons learned from the Great East Japan Tsunami and the Fukushima NPP accidents provided the nuclear power plant emergency plan should consider the natural disaster. However, most of cases, the nuclear emergency preparedness strategies have not incorporated the natural disaster management plan. In this study, we reviewed the safety of the assembly areas, evacuation routes, and shelters of some nuclear emergency planning zone using the new tsunami hazard mapping results through the characteristic inundation analysis. As the result of this study, the improvements can be achieved by considering both natural and nuclear disaster to set up the assembly areas, evacuation routes, and shelters against the multiple disasters. Also, The most important protective measures can be achieved by integrating and linking the emergency preparedness strategy both natural disasters and nuclear disaster in the future.

  16. Pediatric issues in disaster management, part 2: evacuation centers and family separation/reunification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, Sharon E; Sharieff, Ghazala; Bern, Andrew; Benjamin, Lee; Burbulys, Dave; Johnson, Ramon; Schreiber, Merritt

    2010-01-01

    Although children and infants are likely to be victims in a disaster and are more vulnerable in a disaster than adults, disaster planning and management has often overlooked the specific needs of pediatric patients. We discuss key components of disaster planning and management for pediatric patients including emergency medical services, hospital/facility issues, evacuation centers, family separation/reunification, children with special healthcare needs, mental health issues, and overcrowding/surge capacity. Specific policy recommendations and an appendix with detailed practical information and algorithms are included. The first part of this three part series on pediatric issues in disaster management addresses the emergency medical system from the field to the hospital and surge capacity including the impact of crowding. The second part addresses the appropriate set up and functioning of evacuation centers and family separation and reunification. The third part deals with special patient populations: the special healthcare needs patient and mental health issues.

  17. No Value of Routine Brain Computed Tomography 6 Weeks after Evacuation of Chronic Subdural Hematoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Christian Bonde; Sundbye, Filippa; Poulsen, Frantz Rom

    2017-01-01

    Background  The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of planned control postoperative brain computed tomography (CT) scan performed 4 to 6 weeks after the evacuation of chronic subdural hematoma. Materials and Methods  This retrospective study examined 202 patients who during a 2-year period...... from 2011 and 2012 underwent surgical treatment for chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH). Information on patient age, sex, alcohol consumption, anticoagulant/antiplatelet treatment, history of head trauma, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), neurological symptoms, laterality of CSDH, and surgical technique...... was retrieved from patient charts. Results  Overall, 27 out of 202 patients had a recurrence of CSDH and re-evacuation of the hematoma was performed. In all patients recurrence of neurological symptoms preceded the planned postoperative control brain CT 4 to 6 weeks after primary surgery. Conclusion  Routinely...

  18. Stair evacuation simulation based on cellular automata considering evacuees’ walk preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Ning; Luh, Peter B.; Zhang Hui; Chen Tao

    2015-01-01

    As a physical model, the cellular automata (CA) model is widely used in many areas, such as stair evacuation. However, existing CA models do not consider evacuees’ walk preferences nor psychological status, and the structure of the basic model is unapplicable for the stair structure. This paper is to improve the stair evacuation simulation by addressing these issues, and a new cellular automata model is established. Several evacuees’ walk preference and how evacuee’s psychology influences their behaviors are introduced into this model. Evacuees’ speeds will be influenced by these features. To validate this simulation, two fire drills held in two high-rise buildings are video-recorded. It is found that the simulation results are similar to the fire drill results. The structure of this model is simple, and it is easy to further develop and utilize in different buildings with various kinds of occupants. (paper)

  19. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-12-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  20. A Feeder-Bus Dispatch Planning Model for Emergency Evacuation in Urban Rail Transit Corridors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Yan, Xuedong; Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Wenyi

    2016-01-01

    The mobility of modern metropolises strongly relies on urban rail transit (URT) systems, and such a heavy dependence causes that even minor service interruptions would make the URT systems unsustainable. This study aims at optimally dispatching the ground feeder-bus to coordinate with the urban rails’ operation for eliminating the effect of unexpected service interruptions in URT corridors. A feeder-bus dispatch planning model was proposed for the collaborative optimization of URT and feeder-bus cooperation under emergency situations and minimizing the total evacuation cost of the feeder-buses. To solve the model, a concept of dummy feeder-bus system is proposed to transform the non-linear model into traditional linear programming (ILP) model, i.e., traditional transportation problem. The case study of Line #2 of Nanjing URT in China was adopted to illustrate the model application and sensitivity analyses of the key variables. The modeling results show that as the evacuation time window increases, the total evacuation cost as well as the number of dispatched feeder-buses decrease, and the dispatched feeder-buses need operate for more times along the feeder-bus line. The number of dispatched feeder-buses does not show an obvious change with the increase of parking spot capacity and time window, indicating that simply increasing the parking spot capacity would cause huge waste for the emergent bus utilization. When the unbalanced evacuation demand exists between stations, the more feeder-buses are needed. The method of this study will contribute to improving transportation emergency management and resource allocation for URT systems. PMID:27676179