WorldWideScience

Sample records for evacuation dynamics empirical

  1. Empirical study on social groups in pedestrian evacuation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Krüchten, Cornelia; Schadschneider, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    Pedestrian crowds often include social groups, i.e. pedestrians that walk together because of social relationships. They show characteristic configurations and influence the dynamics of the entire crowd. In order to investigate the impact of social groups on evacuations we performed an empirical study with pupils. Several evacuation runs with groups of different sizes and different interactions were performed. New group parameters are introduced which allow to describe the dynamics of the groups and the configuration of the group members quantitatively. The analysis shows a possible decrease of evacuation times for large groups due to self-ordering effects. Social groups can be approximated as ellipses that orientate along their direction of motion. Furthermore, explicitly cooperative behaviour among group members leads to a stronger aggregation of group members and an intermittent way of evacuation.

  2. Evacuation dynamics of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne

    2010-01-01

    higher walking speeds in spiral stairs when the children are familiar with the evacuation path. Higher per-son densities and faster flow through doors were obtained among the children than found in literature on adults. Children in the younger age group are generally slower than the older children....... The children walk slower in horizontal plan than adults, however they are keen to run during evacuations, in the latter case their travel speed increases and exceeds the adults’. Since the evacuation characte-ristics of children differ in many ways from those of adults, nowadays models badly comprehend...

  3. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2005

    CERN Document Server

    Gattermann, Peter; Knoflacher, Hermann; Schreckenberg, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Due to an increasing number of reported catastrophes all over the world, the safety especially of pedestrians today, is a dramatically growing field of interest, both for practitioners as well as scientists from various disciplines. The questions arising mainly address the dynamics of evacuating people and possible optimisations of the process by changing the architecture and /or the procedure. This concerns not only the case of ships, stadiums or buildings, all with restricted geometries, but also the evacuation of complete geographical regions due to natural disasters. Furthermore, also ‘simple’ crowd motion in ‘relaxed’ situations poses new questions with respect to higher comfort and efficiency since the number of involved persons at large events is as high as never before. In addition, as a new research topic in this field, collective animal behaviour is attracting increasing attention. All this was in the scope of the conference held in Vienna, September 28–30, 2005, the third one in a series ...

  4. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012

    CERN Document Server

    Kirsch, Uwe; Schreckenberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The 6th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics conference (PED2012) showcased research on human locomotion. This book presents the proceedings of PED2012. Humans have walked for eons; our drive to settle the globe began with a walk out of Africa. However, much remains to discover. As the world moves toward sustainability while racing to assess and accommodate climate change, research must provide insight on the physical requirements of walking, the dynamics of pedestrians on the move and more. We must understand, predict and simulate pedestrian behaviour, to avoid dangerous situations, to plan for emergencies, and not least, to make walking more attractive and enjoyable. PED2012 offered 70 presentations and keynotes and 70 poster presentations covering new and improved mathematical models, describing new insights on pedestrian behaviour in normal and emergency cases and presenting research based on sensors and advanced observation methods. These papers offer a starting point for innova...

  5. Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reniers, G L L; Audenaert, A; Pauwels, N; Soudan, K

    2011-02-15

    This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Pedestrian Dynamics Feedback Control of Crowd Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Kachroo, Pushkin P.E; Al-nasur, Sadeq J; Shende, Apoorva

    2008-01-01

    Effective evacuation of people from closed spaces is an extremely important topic, since it can save real lives in emergency situations that can be brought about by natural and human made disasters. Usually there are static maps posted at various places at buildings that illustrate routes that should be taken during emergencies. However, when disasters happen, some of these routes might not be valid because of structural problems due to the disaster itself and more importantly because of the distribution of congestion of people spread over the area. The average flow of traffic depends on the traffic density. Therefore, if all the people follow the same route, or follow a route without knowing the congestion situation, they can end up being part of the congestion which results in very low flow rate or worse a traffic jam. Hence it becomes extremely important to design evacuations that inform people how fast and in which direction to move based on real-time information obtained about the people distribution usi...

  7. Conceptualizing intragroup and intergroup dynamics within a controlled crowd evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elzie, Terra; Frydenlund, Erika; Collins, Andrew J; Robinson, R Michael

    2015-01-01

    Social dynamics play a critical role in successful pedestrian evacuations. Crowd modeling research has made progress in capturing the way individual and group dynamics affect evacuations; however, few studies have simultaneously examined how individuals and groups interact with one another during egress. To address this gap, the researchers present a conceptual agent-based model (ABM) designed to study the ways in which autonomous, heterogeneous, decision-making individuals negotiate intragroup and intergroup behavior while exiting a large venue. A key feature of this proposed model is the examination of the dynamics among and between various groupings, where heterogeneity at the individual level dynamically affects group behavior and subsequently group/group interactions. ABM provides a means of representing the important social factors that affect decision making among diverse social groups. Expanding on the 2013 work of Vizzari et al., the researchers focus specifically on social factors and decision making at the individual/group and group/group levels to more realistically portray dynamic crowd systems during a pedestrian evacuation. By developing a model with individual, intragroup, and intergroup interactions, the ABM provides a more representative approximation of real-world crowd egress. The simulation will enable more informed planning by disaster managers, emergency planners, and other decision makers. This pedestrian behavioral concept is one piece of a larger simulation model. Future research will build toward an integrated model capturing decision-making interactions between pedestrians and vehicles that affect evacuation outcomes.

  8. A novel grid-based mesoscopic model for evacuation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Meng; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Ma, Yi

    2018-05-01

    This study presents a novel grid-based mesoscopic model for evacuation dynamics. In this model, the evacuation space is discretised into larger cells than those used in microscopic models. This approach directly computes the dynamic changes crowd densities in cells over the course of an evacuation. The density flow is driven by the density-speed correlation. The computation is faster than in traditional cellular automata evacuation models which determine density by computing the movements of each pedestrian. To demonstrate the feasibility of this model, we apply it to a series of practical scenarios and conduct a parameter sensitivity study of the effect of changes in time step δ. The simulation results show that within the valid range of δ, changing δ has only a minor impact on the simulation. The model also makes it possible to directly acquire key information such as bottleneck areas from a time-varied dynamic density map, even when a relatively large time step is adopted. We use the commercial software AnyLogic to evaluate the model. The result shows that the mesoscopic model is more efficient than the microscopic model and provides more in-situ details (e.g., pedestrian movement pattern) than the macroscopic models.

  9. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  10. A Dynamic Optimization Method of Indoor Fire Evacuation Route Based on Real-time Situation Awareness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DING Yulin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available How to provide safe and effective evacuation routes is an important safeguard to correctly guide evacuation and reduce the casualties during the fire situation rapidly evolving in complex indoor environment. The traditional static path finding method is difficult to adjust the path adaptively according to the changing fire situation, which lead to the evacuation decision-making blindness and hysteresis. This paper proposes a dynamic method which can dynamically optimize the indoor evacuation routes based on the real-time situation awareness. According to the real-time perception of fire situation parameters and the changing indoor environment information, the evacuation route is optimized dynamically. The integrated representation of multisource indoor fire monitoring sensor observations oriented fire emergency evacuation is presented at first, real-time fire threat situation information inside building is then extracted from the observation data of multi-source sensors, which is used to constrain the dynamical optimization of the topology of the evacuation route. Finally, the simulation experiments prove that this method can improve the accuracy and efficiency of indoor evacuation routing.

  11. Dynamics-Based Stranded-Crowd Model for Evacuation in Building Bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidi Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In high-density public buildings, it is difficult to evacuate. So in this paper, we propose a novel quantitative evacuation model to insure people’s safety and reduce the risk of crowding. We analyze the mechanism of arch-like clogging phenomena during evacuation and the influencing factors in emergency situations at bottleneck passages; then we design a model based on crowd dynamics and apply the model to a stadium example. The example is used to compare evacuation results of crowd density with different egress widths in stranded zones. The results show this model proposed can guide the safe and dangerous egress widths in performance design and can help evacuation routes to be selected and optimized.

  12. High pressures in room evacuation processes and a first approach to the dynamics around unconscious pedestrians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornes, F. E.; Frank, G. A.; Dorso, C. O.

    2017-10-01

    Clogging raises as the principal phenomenon during many evacuation processes of pedestrians in an emergency situation. As people push to escape from danger, compression forces may increase to harming levels. Many individuals might fall down, while others will try to dodge the fallen people, or, simply pass through them. We studied the dynamics of the crowd for these situations, in the context of the "social force model". We modeled the unconscious (fallen) pedestrians as inanimate bodies that can be dodged (or not) by the surrounding individuals. We found that new morphological structures appear along the evacuating crowd. Under specific conditions, these structures may enhance the evacuation performance. The pedestrian's willings for either dodging or passing through the unconscious individuals play a relevant role in the overall evacuation performance.

  13. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  14. Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-10

    1303.4629. 15. Leskovec J, Backstrom L, Kleinberg J (2009) Meme -tracking and the dynamics of the news cycle. Proc 15th ACM SIGKDD : 497505. 16. Leskovec J...2011) Memes online: Extracted, subtracted, injected, and recollected. Proc 5th Int AAAI Conf on Weblogs and Social Media : 353–360. 21. Watts DJ (2002) A

  15. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  16. An Empirical Model of Gastric Evacuation Rates for Fish and an Analysis of Digestion in Piscivorous Brown Trout

    OpenAIRE

    He, E.; Wurtsbaugh, Wayne A.

    1993-01-01

    The gastric evacuation rates of brown trout Salmo trutta (0.9–1.6 kg) feeding on fingerling rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (3.5–7.6 g) were measured in the laboratory at five temperatures (4.5, 9.0, 14.0, 19.0, and 22.5°C). Instantaneous gut evacuation rates (Re) increased exponentially with temperature (T): Re = 0.053se^0.073T, r^2 = 0.98; they varyied from 7%sh^–1 at 4.5°C to 29%sh^–1 at 22.5°C. Linear regressions described the relationship between time and qualitative measures of fish ...

  17. Evacuation exercise

    CERN Multimedia

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2094367

    2017-01-01

    In the event of an emergency, it is important that staff and visitors are evacuated safely and efficiently. Hence CERN organises regularly emergency response and evacuation exercise (also known as an ‘evacuation drill’) in different buildings across the sites.

  18. An empirical method for dynamic camouflage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blitch, John G.

    2011-06-01

    As camouflage systems become increasingly sophisticated in their potential to conceal military personnel and precious cargo, evaluation methods need to evolve as well. This paper presents an overview of one such attempt to explore alternative methods for empirical evaluation of dynamic camouflage systems which aspire to keep pace with a soldier's movement through rapidly changing environments that are typical of urban terrain. Motivating factors are covered first, followed by a description of the Blitz Camouflage Assessment (BCA) process and results from an initial proof of concept experiment conducted in November 2006. The conclusion drawn from these results, related literature and the author's personal experience suggest that operational evaluation of personal camouflage needs to be expanded beyond its foundation in signal detection theory and embrace the challenges posed by high levels of cognitive processing.

  19. Rapid post-seismic landslide evacuation boosted by dynamic river width

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Steer, Philippe; Davy, Philippe

    2017-09-01

    Mass wasting caused by large-magnitude earthquakes chokes mountain rivers with several cubic kilometres of sediment. The timescale and mechanisms by which rivers evacuate small to gigantic landslide deposits are poorly known, but are critical for predicting post-seismic geomorphic hazards, interpreting the signature of earthquakes in sedimentary archives and deciphering the coupling between erosion and tectonics. Here, we use a new 2D hydro-sedimentary evolution model to demonstrate that river self-organization into a narrower alluvial channel overlying the bedrock valley dramatically increases sediment transport capacity and reduces export time of gigantic landslides by orders of magnitude compared with existing theory. Predicted export times obey a universal non-linear relationship of landslide volume and pre-landslide valley transport capacity. Upscaling these results to realistic populations of landslides shows that removing half of the total coarse sediment volume introduced by large earthquakes in the fluvial network would typically take 5 to 25 years in various tectonically active mountain belts, with little impact of earthquake magnitude and climate. Dynamic alluvial channel narrowing is therefore a key, previously unrecognized mechanism by which mountain rivers rapidly digest extreme events and maintain their capacity to incise uplifted rocks.

  20. Empirical and dynamic primary energy factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilby, Mark Richard; Rodríguez González, Ana Belén; Vinagre Díaz, Juan José

    2014-01-01

    Current legislation, standards, and scientific research in the field of energy efficiency often make use of PEFs (primary energy factors). The measures employed are usually fixed and based on theoretical calculations. However given the intrinsically variable nature of energy systems, these PEFs should rely on empirical data and evolve in time. Otherwise the obtained efficiencies may not be representative of the actual energy system. In addition, incorrect PEFs may cause a negative effect on the energy efficiency measures. For instance, imposing a high value on the PEF of electricity may discourage the use of renewable energy sources, which have an actual value close to 1. In order to provide a solution to this issue, we propose an application of the Energy Networks (ENs), described in a previous work, to calculate dynamic PEFs based on empirical data. An EN represents an entire energy system both numerically and graphically, from its primary energy sources to their final energy forms, and consuming sectors. Using ENs we can calculate the PEF of any energy form and depict it in a simple and meaningful graph that shows the details of the contribution of each primary energy and the efficiency of the associated process. The analysis of these PEFs leads to significant conclusions regarding the energy models adopted among countries, their evolution in time, the selection of viable ways to improve efficiency, and the detection of best practices that could contribute to the overall energy efficiency targets. - Highlights: • Primary Energy Factors (PEFs) are foundation of much energy legislation and research. • Traditionally, they have been treated as geotemporally invariant. • This work provides a systematic and transparent methodology for adding variability. • It also shows the variability between regions due to market, policy, and technology. • Finally it demonstrates the utility of extended PEFs as a tool in their own right

  1. Dynamic imaging of posterior compartment pelvic floor dysfunction by evacuation proctography: Techniques, indications, results and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maglinte, Dean D.T.; Bartram, Clive

    2007-01-01

    The clinical management of patients with anorectal and pelvic floor dysfunction is often difficult. Evacuation proctography has evolved from a method to evaluate the anorectum for functional disorders to its current status as a practical method for evaluating anorectal dysfunction and pelvic floor prolapse. It has a high observer accuracy and yield of positive diagnosis. Clinicians find it of major benefit and has altered management from surgical to medical and vice versa in a significant number of cases

  2. Dynamic changes during evacuation of a left temporal abscess in open MRI: technical case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernays, R.L.; Yonekawa, Y. [Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital, Zurich (Switzerland); Kollias, S.S. [Institute of Neuroradiology, University Hospital of Zurich (Switzerland)

    2002-05-01

    We demonstrate the usefulness of ''near real-time'' neuro-navigation by open MRI systems for guidance of stereotactic evacuation of intracranial abscesses. A 70-year-old patient was referred to our institution with an intracranial left temporal abscess. He presented with headache, senso-motor aphasia and mild right hemiparesis. The abscess (35 x 25 mm) was stereotactically evacuated under MRI guidance, and a recurrence of a daughter abscess was again evacuated on the 9th postoperative day. ''Near real-time'' imaging showed an indentation of the abscess wall of 11 mm along the trajectory. A thermosensitive MRI protocol demonstrated a higher temperature around the abscess capsule than in the brain tissue more distant to the capsule, demonstrating the inflammatory process. The patient had 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy for gram-negative bacteria and was discharged with improved clinical symptoms 5 weeks after admission. Follow-up CT 2 months postoperatively showed a complete resolution of the abscess. Open MRI-guided interventions with ''near real-time'' imaging demonstrate the anatomical changes during an ongoing procedure and can be accommodated for enhancing the overall precision of stereotactic procedures. Thermosensitive MRI protocols are capable of revealing temperature gradients around inflammatory processes. (orig.)

  3. Dynamic changes during evacuation of a left temporal abscess in open MRI: technical case report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernays, R.L.; Yonekawa, Y.; Kollias, S.S.

    2002-01-01

    We demonstrate the usefulness of ''near real-time'' neuro-navigation by open MRI systems for guidance of stereotactic evacuation of intracranial abscesses. A 70-year-old patient was referred to our institution with an intracranial left temporal abscess. He presented with headache, senso-motor aphasia and mild right hemiparesis. The abscess (35 x 25 mm) was stereotactically evacuated under MRI guidance, and a recurrence of a daughter abscess was again evacuated on the 9th postoperative day. ''Near real-time'' imaging showed an indentation of the abscess wall of 11 mm along the trajectory. A thermosensitive MRI protocol demonstrated a higher temperature around the abscess capsule than in the brain tissue more distant to the capsule, demonstrating the inflammatory process. The patient had 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy for gram-negative bacteria and was discharged with improved clinical symptoms 5 weeks after admission. Follow-up CT 2 months postoperatively showed a complete resolution of the abscess. Open MRI-guided interventions with ''near real-time'' imaging demonstrate the anatomical changes during an ongoing procedure and can be accommodated for enhancing the overall precision of stereotactic procedures. Thermosensitive MRI protocols are capable of revealing temperature gradients around inflammatory processes. (orig.)

  4. Contract Dynamics : Lessons from Empirical Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Magali Chaudey

    2010-01-01

    Working paper GATE 2010-35; The recognition that contracts have a time dimension has given rise to a very abundant literature since the end of the 1980s. In such a dynamic context, the contract may take place over several periods and develop repeated interactions. Then, the principal topics of the analysis are commitment, reputation, memory and the renegotiation of the contract. Few papers have tried to apply the predictions of dynamic contract theory to data. The examples of applications int...

  5. A dynamic model for the study of evacuation under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, G.C.; Caracciolo, R.; Sepede, M.; Casiroli, F.; Rodriguez, R.

    1987-01-01

    Information techniques and models are being used to simulate the evacuation of people living around a nuclear power plant and these methods are being increasingly used for planning purposes. In this study vehicular mobility on a complex road network following an accident has been considered and applied to the specifications of the emergency plans. Simulation tests of the mobility relevant to different combinations of time and meteorological conditions have been undertaken through use of the computer code TRIPS in order to assess the impact on the road network of an accident situation and the preparedness measures. The study has led to a description of the accessibility time curves related to the population gathering centres and has enabled identification of the best routes in order to achieve the minimum travel time. (author)

  6. Differences in Dynamic Brand Competition Across Markets: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Pierre Dubé; Puneet Manchanda

    2005-01-01

    We investigate differences in the dynamics of marketing decisions across geographic markets empirically. We begin with a linear-quadratic game involving forward-looking firms competing on prices and advertising. Based on the corresponding Markov perfect equilibrium, we propose estimable econometric equations for demand and marketing policy. Our model allows us to measure empirically the strategic response of competitors along with economic measures such as firm profitability. We use a rich da...

  7. Empirical analysis of online human dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Zhou, Tao

    2012-06-01

    Patterns of human activities have attracted increasing academic interests, since the quantitative understanding of human behavior is helpful to uncover the origins of many socioeconomic phenomena. This paper focuses on behaviors of Internet users. Six large-scale systems are studied in our experiments, including the movie-watching in Netflix and MovieLens, the transaction in Ebay, the bookmark-collecting in Delicious, and the posting in FreindFeed and Twitter. Empirical analysis reveals some common statistical features of online human behavior: (1) The total number of user's actions, the user's activity, and the interevent time all follow heavy-tailed distributions. (2) There exists a strongly positive correlation between user's activity and the total number of user's actions, and a significantly negative correlation between the user's activity and the width of the interevent time distribution. We further study the rescaling method and show that this method could to some extent eliminate the different statistics among users caused by the different activities, yet the effectiveness depends on the data sets.

  8. Ownership dynamics with large shareholders : An empirical analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donelli, M.; Urzua Infante, F.; Larrain, B.

    2013-01-01

    We study the empirical determinants of corporate ownership dynamics in a market where large shareholders are prevalent. We use a unique, hand-collected 20-year dataset on the ownership structure of Chilean companies. Controllers’ blockholdings are on average high -as in continental Europe, for

  9. On the Complete Instability of Empirically Implemented Dynamic Leontief Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenge, A.E.

    1990-01-01

    On theoretical grounds, real world implementations of forward-looking dynamic Leontief systems were expected to be stable. Empirical work, however, showed the opposite to be true: all investigated systems proved to be unstable. In fact, an extreme form of instability ('complete instability')

  10. Empirical modeling of dynamic behaviors of pneumatic artificial muscle actuators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramatunge, Kanchana Crishan; Leephakpreeda, Thananchai

    2013-11-01

    Pneumatic Artificial Muscle (PAM) actuators yield muscle-like mechanical actuation with high force to weight ratio, soft and flexible structure, and adaptable compliance for rehabilitation and prosthetic appliances to the disabled as well as humanoid robots or machines. The present study is to develop empirical models of the PAM actuators, that is, a PAM coupled with pneumatic control valves, in order to describe their dynamic behaviors for practical control design and usage. Empirical modeling is an efficient approach to computer-based modeling with observations of real behaviors. Different characteristics of dynamic behaviors of each PAM actuator are due not only to the structures of the PAM actuators themselves, but also to the variations of their material properties in manufacturing processes. To overcome the difficulties, the proposed empirical models are experimentally derived from real physical behaviors of the PAM actuators, which are being implemented. In case studies, the simulated results with good agreement to experimental results, show that the proposed methodology can be applied to describe the dynamic behaviors of the real PAM actuators. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

    2018-05-01

    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Study of seasonal dynamics of sedimentation evacuation of suspended matter, nutrients and pollutants from the surface water layer of the Black Sea during 1992-1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulin, S.B.; Polikarpov, G.G.; Egorov, V.N.; Krivenko, O.V.; Stokozov, N.A.; Zherko, N.V.

    1995-01-01

    A series of regular measurements of sedimentation evacuation of suspended matter, nutrients (carbon, nitrogen) and pollutants (mercury, polychlorided biphenyls) from the surface water layer was carried out with 1-2 month interval between the measurements using 234 Th in the region of western cyclonic circulation of the Black Sea. It allowed to estimate the seasonal dynamics and to obtain average annual values of dientrophication and sedimentational self-purification of the euphotic zone of the Western part of the Black Sea. The parallel measurements of the rates of sedimentation evacuation of suspended organic nitrogen from the euphotic zone, which were performed using 234 Th and determining the so called products of phitoplankton by the absorption of 15 N traced nitrates and ammonium, give practically identical results. 19 refs.; 5 figs

  13. Social dynamics in emergency evacuations: Disentangling crowd's attraction and repulsion effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghani, Milad; Sarvi, Majid

    2017-06-01

    The social dynamics of crowds in emergency escape scenarios have been conventionally modelled as the net effect of virtual forces exerted by the crowd on each individual (as self-driven particles), with the magnitude of the influence formulated as decreasing functions of inter-individual distances and the direction of effect assumed to be transitioning from repulsion to attraction by distance. Here, we revisit this conventional assumption using laboratory experimental data. We show based on robust econometric hypothesis-testing methods that individuals' perception of other escapees differs based on whether those individuals are jamming around exit destinations or are on the move towards the destinations. Also, for moving crowds, it differs based on whether the escape destination chosen by the moving flow is visible or invisible to the individual. The presence of crowd jams around a destination, also the movement of crowd flows towards visible destinations are both perceived on average as repulsion (or disutility) effects (with the former showing significantly larger magnitude than the latter). The movement of crowd flows towards an invisible destination, however, is on average perceived as attraction (or utility) effect. Yet, further hypothesis testing showed that neither of those effects in isolation determines adequately whether an individual would merge with or diverge from the crowd. Rather, the social interaction factors act (at significant levels) in conjunction with the physical factors of the environments (including spatial distances to exit destinations and destinations' visibility). In brief, our finding disentangles the conditions under which individuals are more likely to show mass behaviour from the situations where they are more likely to break from the herd. It identifies two factors that moderate the perception of social interactions, ;crowds' jam/movement status; and ;environmental setup;. Our results particularly challenge the taxonomy of

  14. Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhelavskaya, I. S.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.

    2017-12-01

    We present a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of October 1, 2012 - July 1, 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2 ≤ L ≤ 6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent datasets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in-situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

  15. City evacuations an interdisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Binner, Jane; Branicki, Layla; Galla, Tobias; Jones, Nick; King, James; Kolokitha, Magdalini; Smyrnakis, Michalis

    2015-01-01

    Evacuating a city is a complex problem that involves issues of governance, preparedness education, warning, information sharing, population dynamics, resilience and recovery. As natural and anthropogenic threats to cities grow, it is an increasingly pressing problem for policy makers and practitioners.   The book is the result of a unique interdisciplinary collaboration between researchers in the physical and social sciences to consider how an interdisciplinary approach can help plan for large scale evacuations.  It draws on perspectives from physics, mathematics, organisation theory, economics, sociology and education.  Importantly it goes beyond disciplinary boundaries and considers how interdisciplinary methods are necessary to approach a complex problem involving human actors and increasingly complex communications and transportation infrastructures.   Using real world case studies and modelling the book considers new approaches to evacuation dynamics.  It addresses questions of complexity, not only ...

  16. The dynamics of the rise and fall of empires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gündüz, Güngör

    2016-05-01

    The rise of empires can be elucidated by treating them as living organisms, and the celebrated Verhulst or Lotka-Volterra dynamics can be used to understand the growth mechanisms of empires. The fast growth can be expressed by an exponential function as in the case of Macedonian empire of the Alexander the Great whereas a sigmoidal growth can be expressed by power-law equation as in the case of Roman and Ottoman empires. The superpowers Russia and the USA follow somehow different mechanisms, Russia displays two different exponential growth behaviors whereas the USA follows two different power-law behaviors. They did not disturb and mobilize their social capacity much during the course of their rise. The decline and the collapse of an empire occur through a kind of fragmentation process, and the consequently formed small states become rather free in their behavior. The lands of the new states formed exhibit a hierarchical pattern, and the number of the states having an area smaller than the largest one can be given either by an exponential or power-law function. The exponential distribution pattern occurs when the states are quite free in their pursuits, but the power-law behavior occurs when they are under the pressure of an empire or a strong state in the region. The geological and geographical conditions also affect whether there occurs exponential or power-law behavior. The new unions formed such as the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation increase the power-law exponent implying that they increase the stress in the international affairs. The viscoelastic behavior of the empires can be found from the scattering diagrams, and the storage (G‧)and loss modulus (G‧‧), and the associated work-like and heat-like terms can be determined in the sense of thermodynamics. The G‧ of Ottomans was larger than that of Romans implying that they confronted severe resistance during their expansion. The G‧ of Russia is also larger than that of the USA; in fact the

  17. Semi-empirical neural network models of controlled dynamical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail V. Egorchev

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A simulation approach is discussed for maneuverable aircraft motion as nonlinear controlled dynamical system under multiple and diverse uncertainties including knowledge imperfection concerning simulated plant and its environment exposure. The suggested approach is based on a merging of theoretical knowledge for the plant with training tools of artificial neural network field. The efficiency of this approach is demonstrated using the example of motion modeling and the identification of the aerodynamic characteristics of a maneuverable aircraft. A semi-empirical recurrent neural network based model learning algorithm is proposed for multi-step ahead prediction problem. This algorithm sequentially states and solves numerical optimization subproblems of increasing complexity, using each solution as initial guess for subsequent subproblem. We also consider a procedure for representative training set acquisition that utilizes multisine control signals.

  18. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  19. Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, Marco; Ceglar, Andrej; Prodhomme, Chloé; Soret, Albert; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes Francisco, J.

    2017-08-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts could be an important planning tool for farmers, government and insurance companies that can lead to better and timely management of seasonal climate risks. However, climate seasonal forecasts are often under-used, because potential users are not well aware of the capabilities and limitations of these products. This study aims at assessing the merits and caveats of a statistical empirical method, the ensemble streamflow prediction system (ESP, an ensemble based on reordering historical data) and an operational dynamical forecast system, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—System 4 (S4) in predicting summer drought in Europe. Droughts are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the month of August integrated over 6 months. Both systems show useful and mostly comparable deterministic skill. We argue that this source of predictability is mostly attributable to the observed initial conditions. S4 shows only higher skill in terms of ability to probabilistically identify drought occurrence. Thus, currently, both approaches provide useful information and ESP represents a computationally fast alternative to dynamical prediction applications for drought prediction.

  20. Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, Gregory D.; Bier, Vicki M.

    2015-01-01

    In the U.S., current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced, allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping using geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the size of the population evacuated. - Highlights: • Developed framework to compare nuclear power accident evacuation strategies. • Evacuation strategies were compared on basis of radiological and evacuation risk. • Current strategies are adequate for smaller scale nuclear power accidents. • New strategies reduced radiation exposure and evacuation size for larger accidents

  1. Evacuated aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Jørgen Munthe; Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space ......) combined with a solar energy transmittance above 0.75.......This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space...... between the glass panes is filled with monolithic silica aerogel evacuated to a rough vacuum of approximately 1-10 hPa. The aerogel glazing does not depend on use of low emissive coatings that have the drawback of absorbing a relatively large part of the solar radiation that otherwise could reduce...

  2. Evacuation of Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run

    is to provide new data and information on children’s evacuation, which is a step towards including children in evacuation models and calculations. Little is known about children’s evacuation characteristics in fire compared to other parts of the population. In recent years there has been more focus on children’s...... evacuation which is reflected in a rising number of publications on the topic. This thesis comprises evacuation experiments in daycares for children 0-6 years old and elementary schools for children aged 6-15 years. Full scale evacuations were filmed allowing detailed data analysis. Findings and results...... to isolate single factors and findings. Although an engineering approach fits best to the measurable parameters, the other areas are at least equally important when investigating or predicting children’s evacuation. The key findings of the thesis are: Children are very dependent on adults for initiating...

  3. Empirical molecular-dynamics study of diffusion in liquid semiconductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, W.; Wang, Z. Q.; Stroud, D.

    1996-11-01

    We report the results of an extensive molecular-dynamics study of diffusion in liquid Si and Ge (l-Si and l-Ge) and of impurities in l-Ge, using empirical Stillinger-Weber (SW) potentials with several choices of parameters. We use a numerical algorithm in which the three-body part of the SW potential is decomposed into products of two-body potentials, thereby permitting the study of large systems. One choice of SW parameters agrees very well with the observed l-Ge structure factors. The diffusion coefficients D(T) at melting are found to be approximately 6.4×10-5 cm2/s for l-Si, in good agreement with previous calculations, and about 4.2×10-5 and 4.6×10-5 cm2/s for two models of l-Ge. In all cases, D(T) can be fitted to an activated temperature dependence, with activation energies Ed of about 0.42 eV for l-Si, and 0.32 or 0.26 eV for two models of l-Ge, as calculated from either the Einstein relation or from a Green-Kubo-type integration of the velocity autocorrelation function. D(T) for Si impurities in l-Ge is found to be very similar to the self-diffusion coefficient of l-Ge. We briefly discuss possible reasons why the SW potentials give D(T)'s substantially lower than ab initio predictions.

  4. Multiple scales modelling approaches to social interaction in crowd dynamics and crisis management. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trucu, Dumitru

    2016-09-01

    In this comprehensive review concerning the modelling of human behaviours in crowd dynamics [3], the authors explore a wide range of mathematical approaches spanning over multiple scales that are suitable to describe emerging crowd behaviours in extreme situations. Focused on deciphering the key aspects leading to emerging crowd patterns evolutions in challenging times such as those requiring an evacuation on a complex venue, the authors address this complex dynamics at both microscale (individual level), mesoscale (probability distributions of interacting individuals), and macroscale (population level), ultimately aiming to gain valuable understanding and knowledge that would inform decision making in managing crisis situations.

  5. Auditory evacuation beacons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, S.J. van; Bronkhorst, A.W.; Boer, L.C.

    2005-01-01

    Auditory evacuation beacons can be used to guide people to safe exits, even when vision is totally obscured by smoke. Conventional beacons make use of modulated noise signals. Controlled evacuation experiments show that such signals require explicit instructions and are often misunderstood. A new

  6. Optimal crowd evacuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Daamen, W.; Duives, D.C.; Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the optimal allocation of routes, destination, and departure times to members of a crowd, for instance in case of an evacuation or another hazardous situation in which the people need to leave the area as quickly as possible. The generic approach minimizes the evacuation times,

  7. Are the dynamics of gastric evacuation of natural prey in a piscivorous flatfish different from what is going on in a gadoid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krog, C.; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2009-01-01

    Despite the fact that the stomach of turbot Psetta maxima is a curved tube that forms a half circle, it was demonstrated that gastric evacuation in this predatory flatfish fed natural prey closely followed the surface-dependent cylinder model developed from studies on gadoids with a straight...... stomach. Evacuation experiments were performed on two size groups of P. maxima fed sandeel Ammodytes tobianus as well as on P. maxima fed brown shrimp Crangon crangon at three different temperatures. This enabled the provision of a gastric evacuation model for studies on P. maxima, which takes...... with the conclusion of a previous study on P. maxima that evacuation of A. tobianus is essentially linear with time. Use of the cylinder model to the values of the explanatory variables presented in the latter study, however, gave accurate predictions of the actually acquired evacuation data, which points...

  8. Potentials and Influencing Factors of Dynamic Pricing in Business: Empirical Insights of European Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Reichstein; Ralf-Christian Härting; Martina Häußler

    2017-01-01

    With a continuously increasing speed of information exchange on the World Wide Web, retailers in the E-Commerce sector are faced with immense possibilities regarding different online purchase processes like dynamic price settings. By use of Dynamic Pricing, retailers are able to set short time price changes in order to optimize producer surplus. The empirical research illustrates the basics of Dynamic Pricing and identifies six influencing factors of Dynamic Pricing. The results of a structur...

  9. Simulated Evacuations Into Water

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McLean, Garnet

    2004-01-01

    .... Actual emergency data to support ditching certification are not available; there have been questions as to whether evacuation flow rates onto land are appropriate for use in ditching-related flotation time computations...

  10. Feasibility of evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The main question is whether evacuation of people is feasible in case of accidents with a nuclear power plant. The limiting conditions of this question are extracted from other studies. This study is therefore focused on a postulated accident in a newly built nuclear power plant with an electric capacity of 1000 Megawatt and a source term of one percent. In this particular case an evacuation should take place within the period between the accident and the emission of nuclear materials. Initial focus is on the administrative-organizational aspects of evacuation. Then bottlenecks in the technical implementation of evacuation are determined. An analysis is made for each potential Dutch location (Borssele, Eemshaven, Maasvlakte, Moerdijk and Westelijke Noordoostpolderdijk) of a nuclear power plant. By means of a model the following question is examined: can the population leave the danger area or be evacuated on time, under certain circumstances. It is concluded that preventive evacuation of the population from the planned locations is feasible, but at Moerdijk complications may occur because of the presence of some homes for the elderly and a nursing home. 18 refs.; 7 figs.; 2 tabs

  11. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DYNAMICS OF CREDIT GROWTH AND FOREIGN RESERVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satrugan Sinah

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a model for looking into the nature of change in foreign reserve from movements in domestic credit. This model is relevant to foreign reserve targeting, small and open economies. The model denotes that measures undertaken by central banks to constraint domestic credit growth with the view of controlling capital outflows will also be detrimental to foreign reserves level. The empirical studies with application of Fourier Transformation technique have been used to build a model, which shows that growth in domestic credit is more biased towards positive swings in foreign reserves, rather than being unfavorable. The small and open economies, particularly, the Pacific Island nations, have the right set up for application of this model to safeguard foreign reserves level.

  12. Integrating supply and demand aspects of transportation for mass evacuation under disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This study seeks to address real-time operational needs in the context of the evacuation response problem by providing a capability to dynamically route vehicles under evacuation, thereby being responsive to the actual conditions unfolding in real-ti...

  13. Investigation of Thermal Performance of Flat Plate and Evacuated Tubular Solar Collectors According to a New Dynamic Test Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kong, Weiqiang; Wang, Zhifeng; Fan, Jianhua

    2012-01-01

    obtain fluid thermal capacitance in data processing. Then theoretical analysis and experimental verification are carried out to investigate influencing factors of obtaining accurate and stable second order term. A flat plate and ETC solar collector are compared using both the new dynamic method......A new dynamic test method is introduced. This so called improved transfer function method features on two new collector parameters. One is time term which can indicate solar collector's inner heat transfer ability and the other is a second order term of collector mean fluid temperature which can...... and a standard method. The results show that the improved function method can accurately and robustly estimate these two kinds of solar collectors....

  14. [Mes differ by positioning: empirical testing of decentralized dynamics of the self].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizokami, Shinichi

    2013-10-01

    The present study empirically tested the conceptualization of the decentralized dynamics of the self proposed by Hermans & Kempen (1993), which they developed theoretically and from clinical cases, not from large samples of empirical data. They posited that worldviews and images of the self could vary by positioning even in the same individual, and denied that the ego was an omniscient entity that knew and controlled all aspects of the self (centralized ego). Study 1 tested their conceptualization empirically with 47 university students in an experimental group and 17 as a control group. The results showed that the scores on the Rosenberg's self-esteem scale and images of the Mes in the experimental group significantly varied by positioning, but those in the control group did not. Similar results were found in Study 2 with a sample of 120 university students. These results empirically supported the conceptualization of the decentralized dynamics of the self.

  15. Family dynamics and housing: Conceptual issues and empirical findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Mulder

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND In this reflection I discuss my conceptual ideas and the latest empirical findings regarding the connections between leaving the parental home, marriage, parenthood, and separation on the one hand, and housing on the other. I also discuss the limitations of the research and directions for future research. CONCLUSIONS Parental housing of good quality keeps specific categories of potential nest-leavers in the parental home, but is also positively associated with the likelihood of young adults starting their housing careers as homeowners. The connections between housing and marriage and between housing and parenthood can be characterized using the concepts of housing space, quality, and safety or security - all three of which married couples and families need more than singles - and flexibility, which couples and families need less. These four needs are strongly subject to social norms. There is a strong tendency for married couples and prospective families to move into home ownership and higher quality homes. Separation tends to lead ex-partners with lower moving costs and fewer resources to move from the joint home, and tends to lead to a longer lasting decrease in housing quality, particularly for women. Future research could focus on the impact of housing on the transformation of dating partnerships into co-residential partnerships, the impact of housing quality and home ownership on the quality of partner relationships, partnership and housing histories rather than single events and short-term effects, unraveling the causal connections between family and housing, and incorporating the impact of the socio-spatial context in the research.

  16. A crowd of pedestrian dynamics - The perspective of physics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, António F.

    2016-09-01

    Walking is the most basic form of transportation. A good understanding of pedestrian's dynamics is essential in meeting the mobility and accessibility needs of people by providing a safe and quick walking flow [1]. Advances in the dynamics of pedestrians in crowds are of great theoretical and practical interest, as they lead to new insights regarding the planning of pedestrian facilities, crowd management, or evacuation analysis. Nicola Bellomo's et al. article [2] is a very timely review of the related research on modelling approaches, computational simulations, decision-making and crisis response. It also includes an attempt to accurately define commonly used terms, as well as a critical analysis of crowd dynamics and safety problems. As noted by the authors, ;models and simulations offer a virtual representation of real dynamics; that are essential to understand and predict the ;behavioural dynamics of crowds; [2]. As a physicist, I would like to put forward some additional theoretical and practical contributions that could be interesting to explore, regarding the perspective of physics on about human crowd dynamics (panic as a specific form of behaviour excluded).

  17. Interpreting the empirical evidence on illegal gun market dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Anthony A; Wintemute, Garen J; Pierce, Glenn L; Cook, Philip J; Ridgeway, Greg

    2012-10-01

    Thousands of Americans are killed by gunfire each year, and hundreds of thousands more are injured or threatened with guns in robberies and assaults. The burden of gun violence in urban areas is particularly high. Critics suggest that the results of firearm trace data and gun trafficking investigation studies cannot be used to understand the illegal supply of guns to criminals and, therefore, that regulatory and enforcement efforts designed to disrupt illegal firearms markets are futile in addressing criminal access to firearms. In this paper, we present new data to address three key arguments used by skeptics to undermine research on illegal gun market dynamics. We find that criminals rely upon a diverse set of illegal diversion pathways to acquire guns, gun traffickers usually divert small numbers of guns, newer guns are diverted through close-to-retail diversions from legal firearms commerce, and that a diverse set of gun trafficking indicators are needed to identify and shut down gun trafficking pathways.

  18. An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

  19. Evacuating populations with special needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  20. Evacuation drill at CMS

    CERN Multimedia

    Niels Dupont-Sagorin and Christoph Schaefer

    2012-01-01

    Training personnel, including evacuation guides and shifters, checking procedures, improving collaboration with the CERN Fire Brigade: the first real-life evacuation drill at CMS took place on Friday 3 February from 12p.m. to 3p.m. in the two caverns located at Point 5 of the LHC.   CERN personnel during the evacuation drill at CMS. Evacuation drills are required by law and have to be organized periodically in all areas of CERN, both above and below ground. The last drill at CMS, which took place in June 2007, revealed some desiderata, most notably the need for a public address system. With this equipment in place, it is now possible to broadcast audio messages from the CMS control room to the underground areas.   The CMS Technical Coordination Team and the GLIMOS have focused particularly on preparing collaborators for emergency situations by providing training and organizing regular safety drills with the HSE Unit and the CERN Fire Brigade. This Friday, the practical traini...

  1. Empirical model development and validation with dynamic learning in the recurrent multilayer perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlos, A.G.; Chong, K.T.; Atiya, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    A nonlinear multivariable empirical model is developed for a U-tube steam generator using the recurrent multilayer perceptron network as the underlying model structure. The recurrent multilayer perceptron is a dynamic neural network, very effective in the input-output modeling of complex process systems. A dynamic gradient descent learning algorithm is used to train the recurrent multilayer perceptron, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in convergence speed over static learning algorithms. In developing the U-tube steam generator empirical model, the effects of actuator, process,and sensor noise on the training and testing sets are investigated. Learning and prediction both appear very effective, despite the presence of training and testing set noise, respectively. The recurrent multilayer perceptron appears to learn the deterministic part of a stochastic training set, and it predicts approximately a moving average response. Extensive model validation studies indicate that the empirical model can substantially generalize (extrapolate), though online learning becomes necessary for tracking transients significantly different than the ones included in the training set and slowly varying U-tube steam generator dynamics. In view of the satisfactory modeling accuracy and the associated short development time, neural networks based empirical models in some cases appear to provide a serious alternative to first principles models. Caution, however, must be exercised because extensive on-line validation of these models is still warranted

  2. Behavior-based evacuation planning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we present a formulation of an evacuation planning problem that is inspired by motion planning and describe an integrated behavioral agent-based and roadmap-based motion planning approach to solve it. Our formulation allows users to test the effect on evacuation of a number of different environmental factors. One of our main focuses is to provide a mechanism to investigate how the interaction between agents influences the resulting evacuation plans. Specifically, we explore how various types of control provided by a set of directing agents effects the overall evacuation planning strategies of the evacuating agents. ©2010 IEEE.

  3. Behavior-based evacuation planning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel; Amato, Nancy M

    2010-01-01

    In this work, we present a formulation of an evacuation planning problem that is inspired by motion planning and describe an integrated behavioral agent-based and roadmap-based motion planning approach to solve it. Our formulation allows users to test the effect on evacuation of a number of different environmental factors. One of our main focuses is to provide a mechanism to investigate how the interaction between agents influences the resulting evacuation plans. Specifically, we explore how various types of control provided by a set of directing agents effects the overall evacuation planning strategies of the evacuating agents. ©2010 IEEE.

  4. Dynamic gradient descent learning algorithms for enhanced empirical modeling of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlos, A.G.; Atiya, Amir; Chong, K.T.

    1991-01-01

    A newly developed dynamic gradient descent-based learning algorithm is used to train a recurrent multilayer perceptron network for use in empirical modeling of power plants. The two main advantages of the proposed learning algorithm are its ability to consider past error gradient information for future use and the two forward passes associated with its implementation, instead of one forward and one backward pass of the backpropagation algorithm. The latter advantage results in computational time saving because both passes can be performed simultaneously. The dynamic learning algorithm is used to train a hybrid feedforward/feedback neural network, a recurrent multilayer perceptron, which was previously found to exhibit good interpolation and extrapolation capabilities in modeling nonlinear dynamic systems. One of the drawbacks, however, of the previously reported work has been the long training times associated with accurate empirical models. The enhanced learning capabilities provided by the dynamic gradient descent-based learning algorithm are demonstrated by a case study of a steam power plant. The number of iterations required for accurate empirical modeling has been reduced from tens of thousands to hundreds, thus significantly expediting the learning process

  5. Building Dynamic Capabilities in Web Startups: An Empirical Study of Norwegian Web Startups

    OpenAIRE

    Sahlen, Martin Abelson; Gran-Jansen, Sigurd; Rygh, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This thesis explores how web startups operating in a crowded, fast-moving and highly competitive marketplace can gain competitive advantage through building dynamic capabilities and what these capabilities consist of. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, insight was obtained through reviewing key themes within classic resource based theory and entrepreneurship theory. Newer empirical research on entrepreneurial success factors, as well as popular science and advice given by expert w...

  6. Planning for spontaneous evacuation during a radiological emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.H. Jr.

    1984-01-01

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) radiological emergency preparedness program ignores the potential problem of spontaneous evacuation during a nuclear reactor accident. To show the importance of incorporating the emergency spatial behaviors of the population at risk in radiological emergency preparedness and response plans, this article presents empirical evidence that demonstrates the potential magnitude and geographic extent of spontaneous evacuation in the event of an accident at the Long Island Lighting Company's Shoreham Nuclear Power Station. The results indicate that, on the average, 39% of the population of Long Island is likely to evacuate spontaneously and thus to cast an evacuation shadow extending at least 25 miles beyond the plant. On the basis of these findings, necessary revisions to FEMA's radiological emergency preparedness program are outlined

  7. Evacuation decision-making at three mile island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeigler, Donald. J.; Johnson, James. H.

    1987-01-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in 1979 provoked an unanticipated and unprecedented spontaneous evacuation of people living in the area. Following the accident, revised and upgraded emergency preparedness and response regulations were issued by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. (FEMA). This includes the assumption that public education and awareness will minimise the tendency of people to evacuate spontaneously from the vicinity of an accident. This assumption is challenged. Results of an empirical test of a casual model of emergency evacuation decision-making are given. This test was devised to aid understanding of the public behaviour at the time of the Three Mile Island incident. The emergency plans for the Sizewell-B reactor are subject to brief critical consideration. It is concluded that evacuation plans need to reflect people's natural inclinations to move away from a nuclear hazard. (UK)

  8. IT-enabled dynamic capability on performance: An empirical study of BSC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilson Carlos Yoshikuni

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available ew studies have investigated the influence of “information capital,” through IT-enabled dynamic capability, on corporate performance, particularly in economic turbulence. Our study investigates the causal relationship between performance perspectives of the balanced scorecard using partial least squares path modeling. Using data on 845 Brazilian companies, we conduct a quantitative empirical study of firms during an economic crisis and observe the following interesting results. Operational and analytical IT-enabled dynamic capability had positive effects on business process improvement and corporate performance. Results pertaining to mediation (endogenous variables and moderation (control variables clarify IT’s role in and benefits for corporate performance.

  9. Pedestrian collective motion in competitive room evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcimartín, A; Pastor, J M; Martín-Gómez, C; Parisi, D; Zuriguel, I

    2017-09-07

    When a sizable number of people evacuate a room, if the door is not large enough, an accumulation of pedestrians in front of the exit may take place. This is the cause of emerging collective phenomena where the density is believed to be the key variable determining the pedestrian dynamics. Here, we show that when sustained contact among the individuals exists, density is not enough to describe the evacuation, and propose that at least another variable -such as the kinetic stress- is required. We recorded evacuation drills with different degrees of competitiveness where the individuals are allowed to moderately push each other in their way out. We obtain the density, velocity and kinetic stress fields over time, showing that competitiveness strongly affects them and evidencing patterns which have been never observed in previous (low pressure) evacuation experiments. For the highest competitiveness scenario, we detect the development of sudden collective motions. These movements are related to a notable increase of the kinetic stress and a reduction of the velocity towards the door, but do not depend on the density.

  10. Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

    2017-08-01

    Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

  11. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urata, Junji; Pel, A.J.

    2017-01-01

    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami

  12. Indoor guided evacuation: TIN for graph generation and crowd evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengchao Xu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two complementary methods: an approach to compute a network data-set for indoor space of a building by using its two-dimensional (2D floor plans and limited semantic information, combined with an optimal crowd evacuation method. The approach includes three steps: (1 generate critical points in the space, (2 connect neighbour points to build up the network, and then (3 run the optimal algorithm for optimal crowd evacuation from a room to the exit gates of the building. Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN is used in the first two steps. The optimal evacuation crowd is not based on the nearest evacuation gate for a person but relies on optimal sorting of the waiting lists at each gate of the room to be evacuated. As an example case, a rectangular room with 52 persons with two gates is evacuated in 102 elementary interval times (one interval corresponds to the time for one step for normal velocity walking, whereas it would have been evacuated in not less than 167 elementary steps. The procedure for generating the customized network involves the use of 2D floor plans of a building and some common Geographic Information System (GIS functions. This method combined with the optimal sorting lists will be helpful for guiding crowd evacuation during any emergency.

  13. Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

    2014-01-01

    Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

  14. Kinetic models for crowd dynamics. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by N. Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banasiak, J.

    2016-09-01

    There has been a hierarchy of models of crowd behaviour. One can consider the crowd at the so called microscopic level, as a collection of individuals, and derive its description in the form of a (large) system of ordinary differential equations describing the position and velocity of each individual, in parallel to the Newton's description of matter, see e.g. [10]. Another possibility is to describe crowd, in analogy to fluid dynamics, by providing its density and velocity at a given point, see e.g. [11,12]. At the same time, it is recognized that crowd is 'living, social' system that is prone to exhibit rare, not easily predictable, behaviour in response to stress induced by the perception of danger, or of the action of specific agents, see e.g. [1,2]. This high probability of the occurrence of events that are far from average, makes the crowd behaviour similar to the processes with fat-tailed distribution of events. Such unlikely events have been metaphorically termed black swans in [14], or Lévy flights in [13]. While microscopic and macroscopic models can capture many features of crowd dynamics, including obstacles, see [3,8], such models are described by differential equations that inherently are local in space. At the same time, black swan events are often caused by non-local interactions such as self-organization, learning or adherence to some averaged group behaviour. It is known that such interactions are well described by mean field models best represented by integro-differential equations, such as the Boltzmann equation of the rarefied gas theory. This has made plausible to introduce crowd models at the intermediate, (meso) scale by describing the crowd by the one particle distribution function that gives the density of individuals at any particular state; that is, at a given point in the domain and moving with a specific velocity.

  15. Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Silva, Hugo; Ni, Huan

    2010-01-01

    Expected longevity is an important factor influencing older individuals’ decisions such as consumption, savings, purchase of life insurance and annuities, claiming of Social Security benefits, and labor supply. It has also been shown to be a good predictor of actual longevity, which in turn is highly correlated with health status. A relatively new literature on health investments under uncertainty, which builds upon the seminal work by Grossman (1972), has directly linked longevity with characteristics, behaviors, and decisions by utility maximizing agents. Our empirical model can be understood within that theoretical framework as estimating a production function of longevity. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we directly incorporate health dynamics in explaining the variation in expected longevities, and compare two alternative measures of health dynamics: the self-reported health change, and the computed health change based on self-reports of health status. In 38% of the reports in our sample, computed health changes are inconsistent with the direct report on health changes over time. And another 15% of the sample can suffer from information losses if computed changes are used to assess changes in actual health. These potentially serious problems raise doubts regarding the use and interpretation of the computed health changes and even the lagged measures of self-reported health as controls for health dynamics in a variety of empirical settings. Our empirical results, controlling for both subjective and objective measures of health status and unobserved heterogeneity in reporting, suggest that self-reported health changes are a preferred measure of health dynamics. PMID:18187217

  16. Dynamics Of Social Legislation In Russian Empire In The Beginnings Of XX Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya G. Semionkina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present article regulations adopted in the Russian Empire at the beginning of the XX century and defining direction of social legislation development are considered. Norms that regulated state contempt of the lower ranks and members of their families in Russia, and also laws on social insurance are considered. There was no complete system of state social contempt in the Russian Empire. Help to needed was usually provided by numerous non-state charitable structures and societies, thus many of them were under patronage of the imperial family members. This help was provided, first - selectively, second - its size usually was very small. In general, specifics of the legislative ensuring of social support were defined by the features of development of entire legal system of the Russian Empire during this period, including, dynamics of normative legal acts adoption. Author draws a conclusion about preservation of the class character in the organization of the state contempt in the Russian Empire. In 1912 in the Russian Empire acts that directed creation of the system of social insurance for social protection of persons, victims of injuries and mutilations at the factory enterprises, and members of their family’s were adopted. Adoption of the acts regulating social insurance can be considered as a positive step in development of the social orientated legislation. But these acts were far from perfect, and first of all because their action extended on smaller part of the country's working population. According to the author, adoption of the legislation on social insurance became a basic step on the way of modern forms of the organization of the social help creation.

  17. Getting passengers out : evacuation behaviours

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, L.C.

    2003-01-01

    When disaster strikes, mass transportation means mass evacuation. The issue is especially urgent if, despite precautions, a train comes to a stop in a tunnel and there is a fire. Adequate behaviour of passengers is a major success factor of an evacuation. Passengers should replace their original

  18. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Yi, E-mail: yima23-c@my.cityu.edu.hk [School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu (China); Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong); Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit [Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong)

    2017-02-05

    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic. - Highlights: • Pedestrian density inside buildings has dual effects on evacuation. • Increased pedestrian density has a negative effect in cases of increased visibility. • Increased pedestrian density has a positive effect in cases of decreased visibility.

  19. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic. - Highlights: • Pedestrian density inside buildings has dual effects on evacuation. • Increased pedestrian density has a negative effect in cases of increased visibility. • Increased pedestrian density has a positive effect in cases of decreased visibility.

  20. An empirical comparison of a dynamic software testability metric to static cyclomatic complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voas, Jeffrey M.; Miller, Keith W.; Payne, Jeffrey E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper compares the dynamic testability prediction technique termed 'sensitivity analysis' to the static testability technique termed cyclomatic complexity. The application that we chose in this empirical study is a CASE generated version of a B-737 autoland system. For the B-737 system we analyzed, we isolated those functions that we predict are more prone to hide errors during system/reliability testing. We also analyzed the code with several other well-known static metrics. This paper compares and contrasts the results of sensitivity analysis to the results of the static metrics.

  1. Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-11-01

    We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative

  2. Advanced evacuated tube collectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertz, W. W.; Hull, J. R.; Winston, R.; Ogallagher, J.

    1985-04-01

    The essence of the design concept for these new collectors is the integration of moderate levels of nonimaging concentration inside the evacuated tube itself. This permanently protects the reflection surfaces and allows the use of highly reflecting front surface mirrors with reflectances greater than 95%. Previous fabrication and long term testing of a proof-of-concept prototype has established the technical success of the concept. Present work is directed toward the development of a manufacturable unit that will be suitable for the widest possible range of applications. Design alternatives include scaling up the original prototype's tube diameter from 5 cm to 10 cm, using an internal shaped metal concentrating reflector, using a variety of profile shapes to minimize so-called gap losses and accommodate both single ended and double-ended flow geometries, and allowing the use of heat pipes for the absorber tube.

  3. Evacuation modeling trends

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, Orlando; Alvear, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This book presents an overview of modeling definitions and concepts, theory on human behavior and human performance data, available tools and simulation approaches, model development, and application and validation methods. It considers the data and research efforts needed to develop and incorporate functions for the different parameters into comprehensive escape and evacuation simulations, with a number of examples illustrating different aspects and approaches. After an overview of basic modeling approaches, the book discusses benefits and challenges of current techniques. The representation of evacuees is a central issue, including human behavior and the proper implementation of representational tools. Key topics include the nature and importance of the different parameters involved in ASET and RSET and the interactions between them. A review of the current literature on verification and validation methods is provided, with a set of recommended verification tests and examples of validation tests. The book c...

  4. Tracking the sleep onset process: an empirical model of behavioral and physiological dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Prerau

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The sleep onset process (SOP is a dynamic process correlated with a multitude of behavioral and physiological markers. A principled analysis of the SOP can serve as a foundation for answering questions of fundamental importance in basic neuroscience and sleep medicine. Unfortunately, current methods for analyzing the SOP fail to account for the overwhelming evidence that the wake/sleep transition is governed by continuous, dynamic physiological processes. Instead, current practices coarsely discretize sleep both in terms of state, where it is viewed as a binary (wake or sleep process, and in time, where it is viewed as a single time point derived from subjectively scored stages in 30-second epochs, effectively eliminating SOP dynamics from the analysis. These methods also fail to integrate information from both behavioral and physiological data. It is thus imperative to resolve the mismatch between the physiological evidence and analysis methodologies. In this paper, we develop a statistically and physiologically principled dynamic framework and empirical SOP model, combining simultaneously-recorded physiological measurements with behavioral data from a novel breathing task requiring no arousing external sensory stimuli. We fit the model using data from healthy subjects, and estimate the instantaneous probability that a subject is awake during the SOP. The model successfully tracked physiological and behavioral dynamics for individual nights, and significantly outperformed the instantaneous transition models implicit in clinical definitions of sleep onset. Our framework also provides a principled means for cross-subject data alignment as a function of wake probability, allowing us to characterize and compare SOP dynamics across different populations. This analysis enabled us to quantitatively compare the EEG of subjects showing reduced alpha power with the remaining subjects at identical response probabilities. Thus, by incorporating both

  5. THE DYNAMIC INTER-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBESITY AND SCHOOL PERFORMANCE: NEW EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, Son; Hoang, Viet-Ngu; Vu, Xuan-Binh; Wilson, Clevo

    2017-12-04

    This paper proposes a new empirical model for examining the relationship between obesity and school performance using the simultaneous equation modelling approach. The lagged effects of both learning and health outcomes were included to capture both the dynamic and inter-relational aspects of the relationship between obesity and school performance. The empirical application of this study used comprehensive data from the first five waves of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), which commenced in 2004 (wave 1) and was repeated every two years until 2018. The study sample included 10,000 children, equally divided between two cohorts (infants and children) across Australia. The empirical results show that past learning and obesity status are strongly associated with most indicators of school outcomes, including reading, writing, spelling, grammar and numeracy national tests, and scores from the internationally standardized Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test and the Matrix Reasoning Test. The main findings of this study are robust due to the choice of obesity indicator and estimation methods.

  6. Evacuation emergency response model coupling atmospheric release advisory capability output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.C.; Lawver, B.S.; Buckley, D.W.; Finn, S.P.; Swenson, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sponsored project to develop a coupled set of models between those of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) system and candidate evacuation models is discussed herein. This report describes the ARAC system and discusses the rapid computer code developed and the coupling with ARAC output. The computer code is adapted to the use of color graphics as a means to display and convey the dynamics of an emergency evacuation. The model is applied to a specific case of an emergency evacuation of individuals surrounding the Rancho Seco Nuclear Power Plant, located approximately 25 miles southeast of Sacramento, California. The graphics available to the model user for the Rancho Seco example are displayed and noted in detail. Suggestions for future, potential improvements to the emergency evacuation model are presented

  7. Chemical Agents: Facts about Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What CDC is Doing Blog: Public Health Matters Chemical Agents: Facts About Evacuation Format: Select One PDF [ ... on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Some kinds of chemical accidents or attacks, such as a train derailment ...

  8. Building Evacuation with Mobile Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Merkel, Sabrina

    2014-01-01

    The rapidly growing world population and increasingly dense settlements demand ever-larger and more complex buildings from today's engineers. In comparison to this technological progress, a building's equipment for emergency evacuation has been hardly developed further. This work presents a concept for a building evacuation system based on mobile devices. Furthermore, various algorithms for route planning with mobile devices and for indoor localization of mobile devices are addressed.

  9. Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

    2017-11-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  10. The effect of empirical potential functions on modeling of amorphous carbon using molecular dynamics method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Longqiu; Xu, Ming; Song, Wenping; Ovcharenko, Andrey; Zhang, Guangyu; Jia, Ding

    2013-01-01

    Empirical potentials have a strong effect on the hybridization and structure of amorphous carbon and are of great importance in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In this work, amorphous carbon at densities ranging from 2.0 to 3.2 g/cm 3 was modeled by a liquid quenching method using Tersoff, 2nd REBO, and ReaxFF empirical potentials. The hybridization, structure and radial distribution function G(r) of carbon atoms were analyzed as a function of the three potentials mentioned above. The ReaxFF potential is capable to model the change of the structure of amorphous carbon and MD results are in a good agreement with experimental results and density function theory (DFT) at low density of 2.6 g/cm 3 and below. The 2nd REBO potential can be used when amorphous carbon has a very low density of 2.4 g/cm 3 and below. Considering the computational efficiency, the Tersoff potential is recommended to model amorphous carbon at a high density of 2.6 g/cm 3 and above. In addition, the influence of the quenching time on the hybridization content obtained with the three potentials is discussed.

  11. Empirical global model of upper thermosphere winds based on atmosphere and dynamics explorer satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedin, A. E.; Spencer, N. W.; Killeen, T. L.

    1988-01-01

    Thermospheric wind data obtained from the Atmosphere Explorer E and Dynamics Explorer 2 satellites have been used to generate an empirical wind model for the upper thermosphere, analogous to the MSIS model for temperature and density, using a limited set of vector spherical harmonics. The model is limited to above approximately 220 km where the data coverage is best and wind variations with height are reduced by viscosity. The data base is not adequate to detect solar cycle (F10.7) effects at this time but does include magnetic activity effects. Mid- and low-latitude data are reproduced quite well by the model and compare favorably with published ground-based results. The polar vortices are present, but not to full detail.

  12. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic.

  13. Elementary students' evacuation route choice in a classroom: A questionnaire-based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Song, Ziqi

    2018-02-01

    Children evacuation is a critical but challenging issue. Unfortunately, existing researches fail to effectively describe children evacuation, which is likely due to the lack of experimental and empirical data. In this paper, a questionnaire-based experiment was conducted with children aged 8-12 years to study children route choice behavior during evacuation from in a classroom with two exits. 173 effective questionnaires were collected and the corresponding data were analyzed. From the statistical results, we obtained the following findings: (1) position, congestion, group behavior, and backtracking behavior have significant effects on children route choice during evacuation; (2) age only affects children backtracking behavior, and (3) no prominent effects based on gender and guidance were observed. The above findings may help engineers design some effective evacuation strategies for children.

  14. Empirical analysis of vegetation dynamics and the possibility of a catastrophic desertification transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissmann, Haim; Kent, Rafi; Michael, Yaron; Shnerb, Nadav M

    2017-01-01

    The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states. Some support to this idea comes from the analysis of static patterns, where peaks of the vegetation density histogram were associated with these alternative states. Here we present a large-scale empirical study of vegetation dynamics, aimed at identifying and quantifying directly the effects of positive feedback. To do that, we have analyzed vegetation density across 2.5 × 106 km2 of the African Sahel region, with spatial resolution of 30 × 30 meters, using three consecutive snapshots. The results are mixed. The local vegetation density (measured at a single pixel) moves towards the average of the corresponding rainfall line, indicating a purely negative feedback. On the other hand, the chance of spatial clusters (of many "green" pixels) to expand in the next census is growing with their size, suggesting some positive feedback. We show that these apparently contradicting results emerge naturally in a model with positive feedback and strong demographic stochasticity, a model that allows for a catastrophic shift only in a certain range of parameters. Static patterns, like the double peak in the histogram of vegetation density, are shown to vary between censuses, with no apparent correlation with the actual dynamical features. Our work emphasizes the importance of dynamic response patterns as indicators of the state of the system, while the usefulness of static modality features appears to be quite limited.

  15. Dose reduction in evacuation proctography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hare, C.; Halligan, S.; Bartram, C.I.; Gupta, R.; Walker, A.E.; Renfrew, I.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this study was to reduce the patient radiation dose from evacuation proctography. Ninety-eight consecutive adult patients referred for proctography to investigate difficult rectal evacuation were studied using a digital imaging system with either a standard digital program for barium examinations, a reduced dose digital program (both with and without additional copper filtration), or Video fluoroscopy. Dose-area products were recorded for each examination and the groups were compared. All four protocols produced technically acceptable examinations. The low-dose program with copper filtration (median dose 382 cGy cm 2 ) and Video fluoroscopy (median dose 705 cGy cm 2 ) were associated with significantly less dose than other groups (p < 0.0001). Patient dose during evacuation proctography can be reduced significantly without compromising the diagnostic quality of the examination. A digital program with added copper filtration conveyed the lowest dose. (orig.)

  16. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  17. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  18. Interpreting the dynamic nexus between energy consumption and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yuejun

    2011-01-01

    Research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low-carbon economic development. Russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years, while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now, especially its energy-growth nexus. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in Russia based on the state space model. The results indicate that, first of all, Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. Hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner. Second, ever since the year of 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades, mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress. Third, among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst, which suggests the complexity of energy-growth nexus in Russia. Finally, there exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory. - Research highlights: →This study investigates the dynamic nexus of energy consumption and economic growth in Russia. → Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. → Ever since 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades. → Among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst. → There exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth.

  19. Dynamic analysis of interhospital collaboration and competition: empirical evidence from an Italian regional health system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascia, Daniele; Di Vincenzo, Fausto; Cicchetti, Americo

    2012-05-01

    Policymakers stimulate competition in universalistic health-care systems while encouraging the formation of service provision networks among hospital organizations. This article addresses a gap in the extant literature by empirically analyzing simultaneous collaboration and competition between hospitals within the Italian National Health Service, where important procompetition reforms have been implemented. To explore how rising competition between hospitals relates to their propensity to collaborate with other local providers. Longitudinal data on interhospital collaboration and competition collected in an Italian region from 2003 to 2007 are analyzed. Social network analysis techniques are applied to study the structure and dynamics of interhospital collaboration. Negative binomial regressions are employed to explore how interhospital competition relates to the collaborative network over time. Competition among providers does not hinder interhospital collaboration. Collaboration is primarily local, with resource complementarity and differentials in the volume of activity and hospital performance explaining the propensity to collaborate. Formation of collaborative networks among hospitals is not hampered by reforms aimed at fostering market forces. Because procompetition reforms elicit peculiar forms of managed competition in universalistic health systems, studies are needed to clarify whether the positive association between interhospital competition and collaboration can be generalized to other health-care settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

  1. Evacuation transportation management : task five : operational concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-26

    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  2. Evacuation transportation management. Task five, Operational concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  3. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  4. Pedestrian evacuation at the subway station under fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao-Xia, Yang; Hai-Rong, Dong; Xiu-Ming, Yao; Xu-Bin, Sun

    2016-04-01

    With the development of urban rail transit, ensuring the safe evacuation of pedestrians at subway stations has become an important issue in the case of an emergency such as a fire. This paper chooses the platform of line 4 at the Beijing Xuanwumen subway station to study the emergency evacuation process under fire. Based on the established platform, effects of the fire dynamics, different initial pedestrian densities, and positions of fire on evacuation are investigated. According to simulation results, it is found that the fire increases the air temperature and the smoke density, and decreases pedestrians’ visibility and walking velocity. Also, there is a critical initial density at the platform if achieving a safe evacuation within the required 6 minutes. Furthermore, different positions of fire set in this paper have little difference on crowd evacuation if the fire is not large enough. The suggestions provided in this paper are helpful for the subway operators to prevent major casualties. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61322307 and 61233001).

  5. Evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, C.; Sørensen, J.G.; Dederichs, A.S.

    2012-01-01

    An understanding of human evacuation dynamics and performance are important when designing complex buildings such as bridges and when applying performance-based codes in order to reduce the risk of exposing occupants to critical conditions in case of fire. The majority of previous studies deal....... The discussion of "equal access" is only followed slowly by the demand on "equal egress". However, the passengers on trains on bridges are rarely homogeneous mixture. At the same time equal egress is far from assured today. In this paper the evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges are considered....... The populations applied in the experiment are mixed according to a composition corresponding to the population of Denmark. The study has the following findings: the total evacuation times increase with a factor 1.5 when accounting for a mixed population comprehending a variety of age and impairments. The seating...

  6. Evacuation of bedridden occupants: experimental research outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Strating, N.; van Herpen, R.; Zeiler, W.

    2017-01-01

    Bedridden building occupants in hospitals and nursing homes who are not able to rescue themselves in case of a fire emergency require assistance during an evacuation. A building emergency team usually fulfils this function and will have to remove the occupants from the room. The speed at which such an evacuation is conducted however is unknown. Experiments in practice were conducted in hospitals to obtain insight in the evacuation speed and absolute evacuation times required. Furthermore, a s...

  7. Hospital evacuation; planning, assessment, performance and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Nero C Wabo; P Örtenwall; A Khorram-Manesh

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Malfunction in hospitals' complex internal systems, or extern threats, may result in a hospital evacuation. Factors contributing to such evacuation must be identified, analyzed and action plans should be prepared. Our aims in this study were 1) to evaluate the use of risk and vulnerability analysis as a basis for hospital evacuation plan, 2) to identify risks/hazards triggering an evacuation and evaluate the respond needed and 3) to propose a template with main key points for plann...

  8. Tsunami evacuation buildings and evacuation planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzal, Hendri; Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    Indonesia, a country of more than 17,000 islands, is exposed to many hazards. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. It triggered a series of tsunami waves that spread across the Indian Ocean causing damage in 11 countries. Banda Aceh, the capital city of Aceh Province, was among the most damaged. More than 31,000 people were killed. At the time, there were no early warning systems nor evacuation buildings that could provide safe refuge for residents. Since then, four tsunami evacuation buildings (TEBs) have been constructed in the Meuraxa subdistrict of Banda Aceh. Based on analysis of evacuation routes and travel times, the capacity of existing TEBs is examined. Existing TEBs would not be able to shelter all of the at-risk population. In this study, additional buildings and locations for TEBs are proposed and residents are assigned to the closest TEBs. While TEBs may be part of a larger system of tsunami mitigation efforts, other strategies and approaches need to be considered. In addition to TEBs, robust detection, warning and alert systems, land use planning, training, exercises, and other preparedness strategies are essential to tsunami risk reduction.

  9. Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with pre-equilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

    KAUST Repository

    Bonnet-Lebrun, Anne-Sophie

    2017-03-17

    Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modelled communities - i.e., with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities - from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in pre-equilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under pre-equilibrium conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  10. Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with pre-equilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

    KAUST Repository

    Bonnet-Lebrun, Anne-Sophie; Manica, Andrea; Eriksson, Anders; Rodrigues, Ana S.L.

    2017-01-01

    Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modelled communities - i.e., with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities - from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in pre-equilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under pre-equilibrium conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  11. Integrating Decentralized Indoor Evacuation with Information Depositories in the Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The lonelier evacuees find themselves, the riskier become their wayfinding decisions. This research supports single evacuees in a dynamically changing environment with risk-aware guidance. It deploys the concept of decentralized evacuation, where evacuees are guided by smartphones acquiring environmental knowledge and risk information via exploration and knowledge sharing by peer-to-peer communication. Peer-to-peer communication, however, relies on the chance that people come into communication range with each other. This chance can be low. To bridge between people being not at the same time at the same places, this paper suggests information depositories at strategic locations to improve information sharing. Information depositories collect the knowledge acquired by the smartphones of evacuees passing by, maintain this information, and convey it to other passing-by evacuees. Multi-agent simulation implementing these depositories in an indoor environment shows that integrating depositories improves evacuation performance: It enhances the risk awareness and consequently increases the chance that people survive and reduces their evacuation time. For evacuating dynamic events, deploying depositories at staircases has been shown more effective than deploying them in corridors.

  12. Evacuation exercise at the Kindergarten

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector.  The fire brigade checked t...

  13. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

  14. An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  15. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  16. Routes to effective evacuation planning primer series : evacuating populations with special needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  17. Injuries in air transport emergency evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-01

    Twelve air transport evacuations are reviewed. Injuries are discussed with emphasis on configurational and procedural contributing factors. Recommendations and information about possible methods of reducing injuries are provided.

  18. Satellite-based empirical models linking river plume dynamics with hypoxic area andvolume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satellite-based empirical models explaining hypoxic area and volume variation were developed for the seasonally hypoxic (O2 < 2 mg L−1) northern Gulf of Mexico adjacent to the Mississippi River. Annual variations in midsummer hypoxic area and ...

  19. Initial management of hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: a systematic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

    2013-06-01

    Hurricanes remain a major threat to hospitals throughout the world. The authors attempted to identify the planning areas that impact hospital management of evacuations and the challenges faced when sheltering-in-place. This observational, retrospective cohort study examined acute care institutions from one hospital system impacted by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Investigators used a standardized survey instrument and interview process, previously used in the hospital evacuation context, to examine hospitals' initial internal situational awareness and subsequent decision making that resulted in evacuation due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included representatives from senior leadership and clinical and nonclinical staff that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). The main measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions contained in the survey. Seven of ten eligible hospitals participated in the study. All facilities evacuated the sickest patients first. The most significant factors prompting evacuation were the issuing of mandatory evacuation orders, storm dynamics (category, projected path, storm surge), and loss of regional communications. Hospitals that sheltered-in-place experienced staff shortages, interruptions to electrical power, and loss of water supplies. Three fully-evacuated institutions experienced understaffing of 40%-60%, and four hospitals sustained depressed staffing levels for over four weeks. Five hospitals lost electricity for a mean of 4.8 days (range .5-11 days). All facilities continued to receive patients to their Emergency Departments (EDs) while conducting their own evacuation. Hospital EDs should plan for continuous patient arrival during evacuation. Emergency Operation Plans (EOPs) that anticipate challenges associated with evacuation will help to maximize initial decision making and management during a crisis situation. Hospitals that shelter-in-place face critical shortages and must provide independent patient

  20. Routine ultrasound guided evacuation of first trimester missed abortion versus blind evacuation

    OpenAIRE

    Mostafa Abdulla Elsayed

    2014-01-01

    Background: The clinical management of miscarriage has changed little over the years and many women undergo surgical uterine evacuation. Surgical evacuation of the uterine contents in missed abortion is a challenge to the obstetrician as it is done blindly. The current study recommends the use of ultrasound guided surgical evacuation. It serves two important advantages; the first is to complete evacuation without the need of additional step. The second is to protect against uterine perforatio...

  1. Evacuation in emergencies: An annotated guide to research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.

    1987-02-01

    The purpose of this literature review was to explore the relevant sources of knowledge regarding evacuation related issues among recent work published in the social sciences and emergency planning fields. In organizing the material, we looked primarily for articles that included either a theoretical or empirical basis for the findings. By empirical, we mean that the findings were based on data taken from actual research gained through surveys, questionnaires, interviews or a combination of these, and the use of secondary sources. The theoretical material consisted of work that built on past research or which explored the use of models. Some conceptual work, raising issues not covered by the general format, were included if they attempted to synthesize aspects of the literature now segmented or which asked additional questions about topics related to but not necessarily within the strict realm of research studies. The material was divided as to the emphasis placed on the individual or the organizational level of behavior. Empirically the individual, family or household response is easier to assess because of the bias that may intrude when individuals of organizations or agencies involved in the evacuation process are interviewed regarding their official status. The annotations of the literature as well as the specific key findings from each study, where appropriate, are organized by hazard type. An author index is provided.

  2. Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmi Erdem Aktuğ

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on five major emerging markets, I investigate the interactions between credit default swap premiums, foreign exchange rates, local currency government bond spreads, and national stock market returns over the period 4/2/2007 to 8/27/2009. Empirical analysis indicates that bond markets, along with foreign exchange markets, were very dominant in the price discovery process during a common distressed period.

  3. Stock Market Volatility Dynamics around National Elections : Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kon Wah

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates a sample of 8 Asian countries to test whether the stock market volatility would be induced higher during national election periods. Our empirical findings show the country-specific component of variance in election periods can easily reach up to 43% higher than the no election periods. It indicates that the investors are shocked with the election outcomes and investors’ sentiments are affected by the political events, no matter how well the preparation is made by inves...

  4. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic MATLAB Simulink model of a H3-350 Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell (RMFC) stand-alone battery charger produced by Serenergy is developed on the basis of theoretical and empirical methods. The advantage of RMFC systems is that they use liquid methanol as a fuel instead of gaseous...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...... an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...

  5. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2014-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic MATLAB Simulink model of a H3-350 Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell (RMFC) stand-alone battery charger produced by Serenergy is developed on the basis of theoretical and empirical methods. The advantage of RMFC systems is that they use liquid methanol as a fuel instead of gaseous...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...... an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...

  6. Perceptions of the Effectiveness of System Dynamics-Based Interactive Learning Environments: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2010-01-01

    The use of simulations in general and of system dynamics simulation based interactive learning environments (SDILEs) in particular is well recognized as an effective way of improving users' decision making and learning in complex, dynamic tasks. However, the effectiveness of SDILEs in classrooms has rarely been evaluated. This article describes…

  7. Evacuation a serious game for preparation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolen, B.; Thonus, B.; van Zuilekom, Kasper M.; de Romph, E.

    2011-01-01

    Mass evacuation is a measure to reduce possible loss of life in the case of potential disasters. Planning for mass evacuation is only useful if these plans are tested and evaluated by government and the public in reality or in simulated events. As a result, any prior experience is likely to be

  8. Exit selection strategy in pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue Hao; Zhang Bin-Ya; Shao Chun-Fu; Xing Yan

    2014-01-01

    A mixed strategy of the exit selection in a pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits is constructed by fusing the distance-based and time-based strategies through a cognitive coefficient, in order to reduce the evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of exits or pedestrian layout, to find a critical density to distinguish whether the strategy of exit selection takes effect or not, and to analyze the exit selection results with different cognitive coefficients. The strategy of exit selection is embedded in the computation of the shortest estimated distance in a dynamic parameter model, in which the concept of a jam area layer and the procedure of step-by-step expending are introduced. Simulation results indicate the characteristics of evacuation time gradually varying against cognitive coefficient and the effectiveness of reducing evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of pedestrian or exit layout. It is found that there is a critical density to distinguish whether a pedestrian jam occurs in the evacuation and whether an exit selection strategy is in effect. It is also shown that the strategy of exit selection has no effect on the evacuation process in the no-effect phase with a low density, and that evacuation time and exit selection are dependent on the cognitive coefficient and pedestrian initial density in the in-effect phase with a high density. (general)

  9. A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  11. Further steps in the modeling of behavioural crowd dynamics, good news for safe handling. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopoff, Damián A.

    2016-09-01

    The recent review paper [4] constitutes a valuable contribution on the understanding, modeling and simulation of crowd dynamics in extreme situations. It provides a very comprehensive revision about the complexity features of the system under consideration, scaling and the consequent justification of the used methods. In particular, macro and microscopic models have so far been used to model crowd dynamics [9] and authors appropriately explain that working at the mesoscale is a good choice to deal with the heterogeneous behaviour of walkers as well as with the difficulty of their deterministic identification. In this way, methods based on the kinetic theory and statistical dynamics are employed, more precisely the so-called kinetic theory for active particles [7]. This approach has successfully been applied in the modeling of several complex dynamics, with recent applications to learning [2,8] that constitutes the key to understand communication and is of great importance in social dynamics and behavioral sciences.

  12. Development of an empirical dynamic model for a Nexa PEM fuel cell power module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soltani, Mehdi; Mohammad Taghi Bathaee, S. [Power Systems Laboratory, Department of Electrical Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, 16317-14191 Tehran (Iran)

    2010-12-15

    The goal of this study is to develop a fuel cell model which is capable of characterizing fuel cell steady-state performance as well as dynamic behavior. In this paper a new dynamic model of a 1.2 kW Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is developed and validated through a series of experiments. The experimental results have been obtained from a Nexa trademark PEM fuel cell power module under different load conditions. Based on this model, a simulator software package has been developed using the MATLAB {sup registered} and Simulink {sup registered} software and simulation results have been carried out. The proposed model exhibits good agreement with experiment results in steady-state and dynamic performance. (author)

  13. The dynamic interdependence of international financial markets: An empirical study on twenty-seven stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingwei; Zheng, Xiaolong; Zeng, Daniel Dajun

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we aim to investigate the dynamic interdependence of international financial markets. Based on the data regarding daily returns of each market during the period 2006-2015 from Yahoo finance, we mainly focus on examining 27 markets from three continents, including Asia, America and Europe. By checking the dynamic interdependence between those markets, we find that markets from different continents have strong correlation at specific time shift. We also obtain that markets from different continents not only have a strong linkage with others at same day, but at a delay of one day, especially between Asia, Europe and Asia, America. In addition, we further analyze the time-varying influence strength between each two continents and observe that this value has abnormal changes during the financial crisis. These findings can provide us significant insights to understand the underlying dynamic interdependency of international financial markets and further help us make corresponding reasonable decisions.

  14. Empirical potential and elasticity theory modelling of interstitial dislocation loops in UO2 for cluster dynamics application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le-Prioux, Arno

    2017-01-01

    During irradiation in reactor, the microstructure of UO 2 changes and deteriorates, causing modifications of its physical and mechanical properties. The kinetic models used to describe these changes such as cluster dynamics (CRESCENDO calculation code) consider the main microstructural elements that are cavities and interstitial dislocation loops, and provide a rather rough description of the loop thermodynamics. In order to tackle this issue, this work has led to the development of a thermodynamic model of interstitial dislocation loops based on empirical potential calculations. The model considers two types of interstitial dislocation loops on two different size domains: Type 1: Dislocation loops similar to Frank partials in F.C.C. materials which are stable in the smaller size domain. Type 2: Perfect dislocation loops of Burgers vector (a/2)(110) stable in the larger size domain. The analytical formula used to compute the interstitial dislocation loop formation energies is the one for circular loops which has been modified in order to take into account the effects of the dislocation core, which are significant at smaller sizes. The parameters have been determined by empirical potential calculations of the formation energies of prismatic pure edge dislocation loops. The effect of the habit plane reorientation on the formation energies of perfect dislocation loops has been taken into account by a simple interpolation method. All the different types of loops seen during TEM observations are thus accounted for by the model. (author) [fr

  15. Adoption of Dynamic Product Information: An Empirical Investigation of Supporting Purchase Decisions on Product Bundles

    OpenAIRE

    Maass, Wolfgang; Kowatsch, Tobias

    2008-01-01

    Up until now, brick-and-mortar stores provide consumers with static product information in the form of printed product labels. This kind of product information does neither adapt to consumer needs nor facilitates new business models (e.g. consumer experience or ad hoc product bundling by products itself). By contrast, dynamic product information provided by mobile recommendation agents (MRA) may leverage these limitations. In this article we formulate a Simplified Consumer Choice (SCC) model ...

  16. Factors associated with high-rise evacuation: qualitative results from the World Trade Center Evacuation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershon, Robyn R M; Qureshi, Kristine A; Rubin, Marcie S; Raveis, Victoria H

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fact that most high-rise structures (i.e., >75 feet high, or eight to ten stories) are constructed with extensive and redundant fire safety features, current fire safety procedures typically only involve limited evacuation during minor to moderate fire emergencies. Therefore, full-scale evacuation of high-rise buildings is highly unusual and consequently, little is known about how readily and rapidly high-rise structures can be evacuated fully. Factors that either facilitate or inhibit the evacuation process remain under-studied. This paper presents results from the qualitative phase of the World Trade Center Evacuation Study, a three-year, five-phase study designed to improve our understanding of the individual, organizational, and environmental factors that helped or hindered evacuation from the World Trade Center (WTC) Towers 1 and 2, on 11 September 2001. Qualitative data from semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus groups involving WTC evacuees were collected and analyzed. On the individual level, factors that affected evacuation included perception of risk (formed largely by sensory cues), preparedness training, degree of familiarity with the building, physical condition, health status, and footwear. Individual behavior also was affected by group behavior and leadership. At the organizational level, evacuation was affected by worksite preparedness planning, including the training and education of building occupants, and risk communication. The environmental conditions affecting evacuation included smoke, flames, debris, general condition and degree of crowdedness on staircases, and communication infrastructure systems (e.g., public address, landline, cellular and fire warden's telephones). Various factors at the individual, organizational, and environmental levels were identified that affected evacuation. Interventions that address the barriers to evacuation may improve the full-scale evacuation of other high-rise buildings under extreme

  17. Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-Hua Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the loss of life and property and to smoothly resume the transport network as soon as possible. This paper considers the dynamic changes of the hazardous chemicals’ concentration after their leakage and simulates the diffusion process. Based on the characteristics of emergency evacuation of hazardous chemical accidents, we build a mixed-integer programming model and design a heuristic algorithm using network optimization and diffusion simulation (hereafter NODS. We then verify the validity and feasibility of the algorithm using Jinan, China, as a computational example. In the end, we compare the results from different scenarios to explore the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the evacuation process.

  18. Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

    2017-03-01

    Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

  19. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  20. ARKTOS full-scale evacuation tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seligman, B.; Hatfield, P. [ARKTOS Developments Ltd., Surrey, BC (Canada); Bercha, F. [Bercha Group, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-09-15

    The ARKTOS amphibious vehicle can be used for evacuation operations in both open water and ice conditions. It is approved as an evacuation system by various regulators, such as the United States Coast Guard, and is operational in several marine cold regions as an escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) system. An EER research project was performed in 2006 that provided a general reliability evaluation of the ARKTOS system. However, the project did not have the benefit of detailed full-scale tests in order to validate the associated computer model in drill or non-life threatening evacuation conditions. This paper described a follow-up set of full-scale evacuation tests designed to provide more detailed information and validation data for the reliability that the computer model described in the 2006 research project. A description and photographic illustrations of the ARKTOS system were presented. The tests and subsequent analyses were described. Specifically, the paper described the observations, and presented the statistical results from the data collected, and compared observed results with predicted results of a probabilistic EER simulation computer model. Conclusions and recommendations for reliability improvements were also provided. It was concluded that under the benign conditions, the drill performance was satisfactory in all aspects, both in the evacuation activities and the rescue or de-boarding activities. 3 refs., 1 tab., 17 figs.

  1. Study of the components of evacuation times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Smith, J.D.

    1997-11-01

    The magnitudes of accident dose risks calculated by the RADTRAN code depend directly on the time span between an accidental release and evacuation of the affected area surrounding potential radionuclide releases. In a previous study of truck and rail transportation accidents, and other incidents requiring evacuations, a lognormal distribution of evacuation times (time span from decision to evacuate until complete) was developed, which provided a better model for this parameter than the practice of using a highly conservative value of 24 hours. However, the distribution did not account for time required for responders to arrive on the scene, to evaluate the hazards to surrounding population and to initiate an evacuation. Data from US Department of Transportation (DOT) accident statistics have been collected and their distribution functions determined. The separate distribution functions were combined into a single, comprehensive distribution which may be sampled to supply values of the RADTRAN input parameter, EVACUATION. A sample RADTRAN calculation illustrating the effect on risks of using the distribution versus the original (24 hour), conservative point-estimate are also presented

  2. Study of the components of evacuation times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Smith, J.D.

    1998-01-01

    The magnitudes of accident dose-risks calculated by the RADTRAN code depend directly on the time span between an accidental release and evacuation of the affected area surrounding potential radionuclide releases. In a previous study of truck and rail transportation accidents, and other incidents requiring evacuations (Mills et al., 1995) a lognormal distribution of evacuation times (time span from decision to evacuate until complete) was developed, which provided a better model for this parameter than the practice of using a highly conservative value of 24 hours. However, the distribution did not account for time required for responders to arrive on the scene, to evaluate the hazards to surrounding population and to initiate an evacuation. Data from U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) accident statistics have been collected and their distribution functions determined. The separate distribution functions were combined into a single, comprehensive distribution which may be sampled to supply values of the RADTRAN input parameter, EVACUATION. A sample RADTRAN calculation illustrating the effect on risks of using the distribution versus the original (24 hours), conservative point-estimate are also presented. (authors)

  3. Dynamic Model of Islamic Hybrid Securities: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia Islamic Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaafar Pyeman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Capital structure selection is fundamentally important in corporate financial management as it influence on mutually return and risk to stakeholders. Despite of Malaysia’s position as one of the major players of Islamic Financial Market, there are still lack of studies has been conducted on the capital structure of shariah compliant firms especially related to hybrid securities. The objective of this study is to determine the hybrid securities issuance model among the shariah compliant firms in Malaysia. As such, this study is to expand the literature review by providing comprehensive analysis on the hybrid capital structure and to develop dynamic Islamic hybrid securities model for shariah compliant firms. We use panel data of 50 companies that have been issuing the hybrid securities from the year of 2004- 2012. The outcomes of the studies are based on the dynamic model GMM estimation for the determinants of hybrid securities. Based on our model, risk and growth are considered as the most determinant factors for issuing convertible bond and loan stock. These results suggest that, the firms that have high risk but having good growth prospect will choose hybrid securities of convertible bond. The model also support the backdoor equity listing hypothesis by Stein (1992 where the hybrid securities enable the profitable firms to venture into positive NPV project by issuing convertible bond as it offer lower coupon rate as compare to the normal debt rate

  4. An empirical analysis of China's energy efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhaohua; Feng, Chao; Zhang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the global DEA (data envelopment analysis), this paper analyzes China's energy efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives based on China's provincial panel data for the period of 2001–2010. We present the evolution of energy efficiency in China from 2001 to 2010, and identify the key factors influencing the energy efficiency from the aspects of technical progress, productive scale and management level. The results show that there was an overall declining trend for China's energy efficiency from 2001 to 2005, and technical regress and the decrease in scale efficiency were the main reasons for this decline. Then an overall rising trend appeared during 2005–2010, and technical progress was the most important motivation for this increase. Moreover, among the three main regions in China, the eastern China was leading in the energy efficiency during the sample period, while the energy efficiency in western China fell far behind since the beginning. And the energy efficiency in central China was in the middle. This indicates that west region may be China's promising growth engine of energy efficiency in the future, and further technical progress is thought to be the key motivation for this improvement. - Highlights: • We analyze China's energy efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives. • The global DEA (data envelopment analysis) method is utilized in this paper. • Technical progress is the key factor for the change of China's energy efficiency. • There are significant differences in energy efficiency of different regions in China. • Western area is China's promising growth engine of energy efficiency in the future

  5. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  7. Empirical evidence of the effect of school gathering on the dynamics of dengue epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos M. Hernández-Suárez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Dengue fever is an important vector-transmitted disease that affects more than 100 countries worldwide. Locations where individuals tend to gather may play an important role in disease transmission in the presence of the vector. By controlling mosquitoes’ breeding places, this study aims to analyze the effect of reducing transmission in elementary schools (grades 1–9 on the dynamics of the epidemic at a regional level. Materials and methods: In 2007, we implemented a massive campaign in a region of México (Colima state, 5,191 km2, population 568,000 focused on training janitors to locate and avoid mosquitoes’ breeding places, the objective being to maintain elementary schools free of mosquitoes. Results: We observed 45% reduction in dengue incidence compared to the previous year. In contrast, the rest of Mexico observed an 81% increase in incidence on average. Discussion: Costs associated with campaigns focusing on cleaning schools are very low and results seem to be promising. Nevertheless, more controlled studies are needed.

  8. Theoretical flow investigations of an all glass evacuated tubular collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Louise Jivan; Furbo, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Heat transfer and flow structures inside all glass evacuated tubular collectors for different operating conditions are investigated by means of computational fluid dynamics. The investigations are based on a collector design with horizontal tubes connected to a vertical 14 manifold channel. Three...... the highest efficiency, the optimal inlet flow rate was around 0.4-1 kg/min, the flow structures in the glass tubes were relatively uninfluenced by the inlet flow rate, Generally, the results showed only small variations in the efficiencies. This indicates that the collector design is well working for most...

  9. Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; Kauko, Hanna M.; Assmy, Philipp; Rösel, Anja; Itkin, Polona; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Sundfjord, Arild; Steen, Harald; Hop, Haakon; Cohen, Lana; Peterson, Algot K.; Jeffery, Nicole; Elliott, Scott M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.

    2017-07-01

    Large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.

  10. Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Richards, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure as a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

  11. A method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Mengxiao; Zhang, Guijuan; Wang, Mengsi; Lu, Dianjie; Liu, Hong

    2017-10-01

    The current evacuation model does not consider the impact of emotion and personality on crowd evacuation. Thus, there is large difference between evacuation results and the real-life behavior of the crowd. In order to generate more realistic crowd evacuation results, we present a method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation. First, we combine OCEAN (Openness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism, Conscientiousness) model and SIS (Susceptible Infected Susceptible) model to construct the P-SIS (Personalized SIS) emotional contagion model. The P-SIS model shows the diversity of individuals in crowd effectively. Second, we couple the P-SIS model with the social force model to simulate emotional contagion on crowd evacuation. Finally, the photo-realistic rendering method is employed to obtain the animation of crowd evacuation. Experimental results show that our method can simulate crowd evacuation realistically and has guiding significance for crowd evacuation in the emergency circumstances.

  12. Nonlinear empirical model of gas humidity-related voltage dynamics of a polymer-electrolyte-membrane fuel cell stack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiler, M.; Andre, D.; Schmid, O.; Hofer, E. P.

    Intelligent energy management is a cost-effective key path to realize efficient automotive drive trains [R. O'Hayre, S.W. Cha, W. Colella, F.B. Prinz. Fuel Cell Fundamentals, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 2006]. To develop operating strategy in fuel cell drive trains, precise and computational efficient models of all system components, especially the fuel cell stack, are needed. Should these models further be used in diagnostic or control applications, then some major requirements must be fulfilled. First, the model must predict the mean fuel cell voltage very precisely in all possible operating conditions, even during transients. The model output should be as smooth as possible to support best efficient optimization strategies of the complete system. At least, the model must be computational efficient. For most applications, a difference between real fuel cell voltage and model output of less than 10 mV and 1000 calculations per second will be sufficient. In general, empirical models based on system identification offer a better accuracy and consume less calculation resources than detailed models derived from theoretical considerations [J. Larminie, A. Dicks. Fuel Cell Systems Explained, John Wiley & Sons, West Sussex, 2003]. In this contribution, the dynamic behaviour of the mean cell voltage of a polymer-electrolyte-membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack due to variations in humidity of cell's reactant gases is investigated. The validity of the overall model structure, a so-called general Hammerstein model (or Uryson model), was introduced recently in [M. Meiler, O. Schmid, M. Schudy, E.P. Hofer. Dynamic fuel cell stack model for real-time simulation based on system identification, J. Power Sources 176 (2007) 523-528]. Fuel cell mean voltage is calculated as the sum of a stationary and a dynamic voltage component. The stationary component of cell voltage is represented by a lookup-table and the dynamic voltage by a parallel placed, nonlinear transfer function. A

  13. Comparison of calculation and simulation of evacuation in real buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szénay, Martin; Lopušniak, Martin

    2018-03-01

    Each building must meet requirements for safe evacuation in order to prevent casualties. Therefore methods for evaluation of evacuation are used when designing buildings. In the paper, calculation methods were tested on three real buildings. The testing used methods of evacuation time calculation pursuant to Slovak standards and evacuation time calculation using the buildingExodus simulation software. If calculation methods have been suitably selected taking into account the nature of evacuation and at the same time if correct values of parameters were entered, we will be able to obtain almost identical times of evacuation in comparison with real results obtained from simulation. The difference can range from 1% to 27%.

  14. Evacuation of the NET vacuum chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    Parametric calculations of the evacuation process were carried out for the NET-vacuum chamber involving two blanket designs. The results show that with an acceptable vacuum pumping capacity the required start vacuum conditions can be realized within reasonable time. The two blanket concepts do not differ remarkably in their evacuation behaviour. The remaining large pressure differences between the different locations of the vacuum chamber can be reduced if approximately 30% of the total gas flow is extracted from the heads of the blanket replacement ports

  15. Evacuation of the NET vacuum chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, R.

    1986-01-01

    Parametric calculations of the evacuation process were carried out for the NET-vacuum chamber involving two blanket designs. The results show that with an acceptable vacuum pumping capacity the required start vacuum conditions can be realized within reasonable time. The two blanket concepts do not differ remarkably in their evacuation behaviour. The remaining large pressure differences between the different locations of the vacuum chamber can be reduced if approximately 30% of the total gas flow is extracted from the heads of the blanket replacement ports. (author)

  16. Effectiveness of Installation Aeromedical Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-13

    Technique Enables Dynamic Replanning and Rescheduling of Aeromedical Evacuation” highlighted the 1993 Department of Defense initiative to oversee medical...current system is dependent on the first responder (paramedic or nurse ) to determine the patient’s medical destination. This gap in control mechanisms...availability of trauma surgeons, anesthesiologists, physician specialists, nurses , and resuscitation equipment; required to treat 1200 admissions a year or

  17. CFD Study of Fluid Flow in an All-glass Evacuated Tube Solar Water Heater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ai, Ning; Fan, Jianhua; Li, Yumin

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: The all-glass evacuated tube solar water heater is one of the most widely used solar thermal technologies. The aim of the paper is to investigate fluid flow in the solar water heater by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The investigation was carried out with a focus on the co...... for future system optimization....

  18. Evacuation of bedridden occupants : experimental research outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strating, N.; van Herpen, R.; Zeiler, W.

    2017-01-01

    Bedridden building occupants in hospitals and nursing homes who are not able to rescue themselves in case of a fire emergency require assistance during an evacuation. A building emergency team usually fulfils this function and will have to remove the occupants from the room. The speed at which such

  19. Evacuation Risks: a tentative approach for quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastien, M.C.; Dumas, M.; Laporte, J; Parmentier, N.

    1985-01-01

    This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person-km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 32 10 -8 injuries per person-km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10 -8 injuries per person-km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations

  20. Aeromedical Evacuation: Validating Civil Reserve Air Fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-25

    flight nurses and three medical technicians) is added for AE missions. The aeromedical evacuation crew (AEC) may be pared and tailored as required in... Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice and Science, Volume 5, Number 4, 2007: 319-325. 34 IAT.R 0554 General Accounting Office

  1. An adaptive simulation tool for evacuation scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Formolo, Daniel; van der Wal, C. Natalie

    2017-01-01

    Building useful and efficient models and tools for a varied audience, such as evacuation simulators for scientists, engineers and crisis managers, can be tricky. Even good models can fail in providing information when the user’s tools for the model are scarce of resources. The aim of this work is to

  2. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  3. Cellular automaton model of crowd evacuation inspired by slime mould

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalogeiton, V. S.; Papadopoulos, D. P.; Georgilas, I. P.; Sirakoulis, G. Ch.; Adamatzky, A. I.

    2015-04-01

    In all the living organisms, the self-preservation behaviour is almost universal. Even the most simple of living organisms, like slime mould, is typically under intense selective pressure to evolve a response to ensure their evolution and safety in the best possible way. On the other hand, evacuation of a place can be easily characterized as one of the most stressful situations for the individuals taking part on it. Taking inspiration from the slime mould behaviour, we are introducing a computational bio-inspired model crowd evacuation model. Cellular Automata (CA) were selected as a fully parallel advanced computation tool able to mimic the Physarum's behaviour. In particular, the proposed CA model takes into account while mimicking the Physarum foraging process, the food diffusion, the organism's growth, the creation of tubes for each organism, the selection of optimum tube for each human in correspondence to the crowd evacuation under study and finally, the movement of all humans at each time step towards near exit. To test the model's efficiency and robustness, several simulation scenarios were proposed both in virtual and real-life indoor environments (namely, the first floor of office building B of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering of Democritus University of Thrace). The proposed model is further evaluated in a purely quantitative way by comparing the simulation results with the corresponding ones from the bibliography taken by real data. The examined fundamental diagrams of velocity-density and flow-density are found in full agreement with many of the already published corresponding results proving the adequacy, the fitness and the resulting dynamics of the model. Finally, several real Physarum experiments were conducted in an archetype of the aforementioned real-life environment proving at last that the proposed model succeeded in reproducing sufficiently the Physarum's recorded behaviour derived from observation of the aforementioned

  4. FIRE EVACUATION FROM HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korol'chenko Aleksandr Yakovlevich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors argue that no collapse of structures is likely in the event of a fire emergency in multistoried buildings, rather, other fire-related factors may endanger the lives of people inside high-rise buildings exposed to the fire emergency, including open fire, sparks, high ambient temperature, smoke and toxic combustion products, reduced concentration of oxygen, and combined influence of various factors. In case of fire, the temperature inside buildings reaches 1100 °С. It exceeds the temperature of the ambient air acceptable for humans by far (70 °С. The experiments demonstrate that combustion products contain hundreds of toxic chemical compounds. The most hazardous of them include carbon oxide, carbon dioxide, chloride and cyanic hydrogen, aldehydes and acrolein. The author provides the pattern of their influence on the human body. The smoke consists of unburned particles of carbon and aerosols. The size of particles fluctuates within 0.05-50 MMK. Smoke produces a physiological and psychological impact on human beings. It has been proven that dangerous fire factors emerge within the first five to ten minutes of the emergency situation. Evacuation is the principal method of safety assurance. However, the velocity of propagation of smoke and heat is so high that even if the fire prevention system is in operation, people may be blocked both on the floors that are exposed to the fire and those that escape its propagation. New evacuation and rescue methods are recommended by the author. Various ways and methods of use of life-saving facilities are also provided. Safe evacuation is feasible from buildings where the number of stories does not exceed 10- 12. During evacuation, high density human streams are formed inside buildings, therefore, the period of stay in a burning building is increased. The calculations have proven that a two-minute delay of evacuation converts into a safe evacuation of only 13-15% of people. Low reliability of

  5. Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Liu, Hong; Qin, Xin; Liu, Baoxi

    2018-02-01

    Studies of crowd behavior with related research on computer simulation provide an effective basis for architectural design and effective crowd management. Based on low-density group organization patterns, a modified two-layer social force model is proposed in this paper to simulate and reproduce a group gathering process. First, this paper studies evacuation videos from the Luan'xian earthquake in 2012, and extends the study of group organization patterns to a higher density. Furthermore, taking full advantage of the strength in crowd gathering simulations, a new method on grouping and guidance is proposed while using crowd dynamics. Second, a real-life grouping situation in earthquake evacuation is simulated and reproduced. Comparing with the fundamental social force model and existing guided crowd model, the modified model reduces congestion time and truly reflects group behaviors. Furthermore, the experiment result also shows that a stable group pattern and a suitable leader could decrease collision and allow a safer evacuation process.

  6. Information of the Home Office for the planning of evacuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This information contains the legal basis, scope and jurisdiction for evacuations in cases of accident. The general evacuation plan must schedule the following: private and public transport, information equipment, supply and care services, evacuation routes and traffic control checkpoints, etc. Particular evacuation plans must be established e.g. for nuclear plants and barrages. The planning is based on a survey of measures represented by a flowchart or a checklist. (HSCH) [de

  7. Aircraft industry workers in evacuation: conditions of life of evacuated plants' workers in 1941-1945

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Михаил Юрьевич Мухин

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the work of the factories in 1941-1945 in the evacuation. The author analyzes the living conditions of workers in evacuated aviation plants, their daily life, maintenance, etc. The author concludes that in the early years of the War the conditions of life of the aviation industry's workers were very difficult, and the welfare and financial situation improved in 1944, the sure sign of fracture in the Second world war.

  8. 21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

  9. 21 CFR 876.4370 - Gastroenterology-urology evacuator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. 876.4370... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES GASTROENTEROLOGY-UROLOGY DEVICES Surgical Devices § 876.4370 Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. (a) Identification. A gastroenterology-urology evacuator is a device used to remove...

  10. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgiadou, Paraskevi S.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Kiranoudis, Chris T.; Markatos, Nikolaos C.

    2007-01-01

    A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies

  11. Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Naser, Arab

    2012-01-01

    Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning. This book also: Comprehensively discusses the application of mathematical models for evacuation and intelligent transportation modeling Covers advanced methodologies in evacuation modeling and planning Discusses principles a...

  12. Evacuation of Bed-bound Patients-STEPS Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Anne; Dederichs, Anne Simone

    2016-01-01

    Fires in hospitals occur, and evacuation of bed-bound patients might be necessary in case of emergency. The current study concerns the evacuation of bed-bound patients from a fire section in a hospital using hospital porters. The simulations are performed using the STEPS program. The aim...... of the study is to investigate the evacuation time of bed-bound hospital patients using different walking speeds from the literature, and the influence of the number of hospital porters on the total evacuation times of bed-bound patients. Different scenarios were carried out with varying staff......-to-patient ratios that simulate the horizontal evacuation of 40 bed-bound patients into a different fire section. It was found that the staff-to-patient-ratio affects the total evacuation times. However, the total evacuation times do not decrease linearly and a saturation effect is seen at a staff-to-patient ratio...

  13. Evacuation behavior and Three Mile Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutter, S; Barnes, K

    1982-06-01

    The responses of the residents to the nuclear power plant arcident at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania illustrate the factors influencing pre-impact coping responses of populations exposed to technological hazards. Confusion itnd ambiguous information influenced both the decision to evaluate and to remain in place. Proximity to the facility, stage in life cycle and the actions of friends and neighbors influenced the decision to evacuate.

  14. Evacuation exercise at the CERN Kindergarten

    CERN Document Server

    2001-01-01

    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector. The fire brigade checked that the buil...

  15. Nuclear criticality evacuation with telemonitoring and microprocessors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergus, R.W.; Moe, H.J. Sr.

    1979-01-01

    At Argonne National Laboratory, criticality alarms are required at widely separated locations to evacuate personnel in case of accident while emergency teams or maintenance personnel respond from a central location. The system functions have been divided in a similar manner. The alarm site hardware can independently detect a criticality and sound the evacuation signal while general monitoring and routine tests are handled by a communication link to a central monitoring station. The radiation detectors and evacuation sounders at each site are interconnected by a common two conductor cable in a unique telemonitoring format. This format allows both control and data information to be received or transmitted at any point on the cable which can be up to 3000 meters total length. The site microprocessor maintains a current data table, detects several faults, drives a printer, and communicates with the central telemonitoring station. The radiation detectors are made with plastic scintillators and photomultiplier tubes operated in a constant current mode with a 4 decade measurement range. The detectors also respond within microseconds to the criticality radiation burst. These characteristics can be tested with an internal light emitting diode either completely with a manual procedure or routinely with a system test initiated by the central monitoring station. Although the system was developed for a criticality alarm which requires reliable and redundant features, the basic techniques are useable for other monitoring and instrumentation applications

  16. Management of evacuation in case of fire accidents in chemical industrial areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Pauwels, N.; Audenaert, A.; Ale, B.J.M.; Soudan, K.

    2007-01-01

    Trade-offs between economic and safety arguments exist in the operation of chemical installations, should knock-on calamities induced by fire accidents occur: a sudden installation shutdown might result in substantial economic losses, but may be needed to ensure safety. Due to the very rare nature of domino effect risks induced decision problems an adequate evacuation decision aid model to be used by plant safety management does, to the best of the authors' knowledge, not exist. This paper develops a tentative approach to calculate the economic gains and/or losses linked to the decision problem whether or not, and when, to evacuate chemical installation(s) threatened by possible domino effect risks. The proposed model is illustrated by a case-study based on empirical data

  17. From Ant Trails to Pedestrian Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Schadschneider

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the simulation of pedestrian dynamics inspired by the behaviour of ants in ant trails. Ants communicate by producing a pheromone that can be smelled by other ants. In this model, pedestrians produce a virtual pheromone that influences the motion of others. In this way all interactions are strictly local, and so even large crowds can be simulated very efficiently. Nevertheless, the model is able to reproduce the collective effects observed empirically, eg the formation of lanes in counterflow. As an application, we reproduce a surprising result found in experiments of evacuation from an aircraft.

  18. Experimental study on occupant evacuation in narrow seat aisle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shenshi; Lu, Shouxiang; Lo, Siuming; Li, Changhai; Guo, Yafei

    2018-07-01

    Narrow seat aisle is an important area in the train car interior due to the large passenger population, however evacuation therein has not gained enough concerns. In this experimental study, the occupant evacuation of the narrow seat aisle area is investigated, with the aisle width of 0.4-0.6 m and the evacuation direction of forward and backward. The evacuation behaviors are analyzed based on the video record, and the discussion is carried out in the aspect of evacuation time, crowdedness, evacuation order, and aisle conflicts. The result shows that with the increasing aisle width, total evacuation time and the average specific evacuation rate decrease. The aisle is crowded for some time, with a large linear occupant densities. The evacuation order of each occupant is mainly related to the seat position. Moreover, it is found that the aisle conflicts can be well described by Burstedde's model. This study gives a useful benchmark for evacuation simulation of narrow seat aisle, and provides reference to safety design of seat area in train cars.

  19. Dual effects of guide-based guidance on pedestrian evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Yi, E-mail: yima23-c@my.cityu.edu.hk; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng

    2017-06-15

    This study investigates the effects of guide-based guidance on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility via the simulations based on an extended social force model. The results show that the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual, and related to the neighbor density within the visual field. On the one hand, in many cases, the effects of guides are positive, particularly when the neighbor density within the visual field is moderate; in this case, a few guides can already assist the evacuation effectively and efficiently. However, when the neighbor density within the visual field is particularly small or large, the effects of guides may be adverse and make the evacuation time longer. Our results not only provide a new insight into the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility, but also give some practical suggestions as to how to assign guides to assist the evacuation under different evacuation conditions. - Highlights: • Extended social force model is used to simulate guided pedestrian evacuation. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are related to neighbor density within visual field.

  20. Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

    2001-09-01

    We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

  1. Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

  2. Organizational Flexibility for Hypercompetitive Markets : Empirical Evidence of the Composition and Context Specificity of Dynamic Capabilities and Organization Design Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.P. van der Weerdt (Niels)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis research project, which builds on the conceptual work of Henk Volberda on the flexible firm, empirically investigates four aspects of organizational flexibility. Our analysis of data of over 1900 firms and over 3000 respondents shows (1) that several increasing levels of

  3. Assessment of total evacuation systems for tall buildings

    CERN Document Server

    Ronchi, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    This SpringerBrief focuses on the use of egress models to assess the optimal strategy for total evacuation in high-rise buildings. It investigates occupant relocation and evacuation strategies involving the exit stairs, elevators, sky bridges and combinations thereof. Chapters review existing information on this topic and describe case study simulations of a multi-component exit strategy. This review provides the architectural design, regulatory and research communities with a thorough understanding of the current and emerging evacuation procedures and possible future options. A model case study simulates seven possible strategies for the total evacuation of two identical twin towers linked with two sky-bridges at different heights. The authors present the layout of the building and the available egress components including both vertical and horizontal egress components, namely stairs, occupant evacuation elevators (OEEs), service elevators, transfer floors and sky-bridges. The evacuation strategies employ a ...

  4. Evacuation Simulation in Kalayaan Residence Hall, up Diliman Using Gama Simulation Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claridades, A. R. C.; Villanueva, J. K. S.; Macatulad, E. G.

    2016-09-01

    Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) has recently been adopted in some studies for the modelling of events as a dynamic system given a set of events and parameters. In principle, ABM employs individual agents with assigned attributes and behaviors and simulates their behavior around their environment and interaction with other agents. This can be a useful tool in both micro and macroscale-applications. In this study, a model initially created and applied to an academic building was implemented in a dormitory. In particular, this research integrates three-dimensional Geographic Information System (GIS) with GAMA as the multi-agent based evacuation simulation and is implemented in Kalayaan Residence Hall. A three-dimensional GIS model is created based on the floor plans and demographic data of the dorm, including respective pathways as networks, rooms, floors, exits and appropriate attributes. This model is then re-implemented in GAMA. Different states of the agents and their effect on their evacuation time were then observed. GAMA simulation with varying path width was also implemented. It has been found out that compared to their original states, panic, eating and studying will hasten evacuation, and on the other hand, sleeping and being on the bathrooms will be impedances. It is also concluded that evacuation time will be halved when path widths are doubled, however it is recommended for further studies for pathways to be modeled as spaces instead of lines. A more scientific basis for predicting agent behavior in these states is also recommended for more realistic results.

  5. A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

    2018-01-01

    Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

  6. Evacuation and assembly of aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev

    1999-01-01

    The application of monolithic silica aerogel as transparent insulation material for windows has been investigated for some years. It has been realised that a major problem of an industrial production of aerogel glazings will be the time for evacuation of the aerogel material. However, in a previous...... process, it can be considered as semi-online, and especially the capital cost is significantly lower for this method in comparison with a true online process. So hereby, a major obstacle is overcome with respect to a first industrial production of aerogel glazings.The apparatus has been constructed...

  7. Bulkhead Door – Critical Evacuation States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flizikowski Józef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is a preliminary to a modification concept of the sliding watertight bulkhead door used on ships and vessels. Hydraulic or electro-hydraulic drives used to move these doors require complicated and extended pressure installations with large amounts of hydraulic fluid. Well-known operational drawbacks of these installations include high level of noise and possibility of various leaks in the hydraulic system. Being the first in a series, the present article describes and analyses critical states which can take place during evacuation of people through openings in the watertight bulkhead doors on seagoing ships and vessels.

  8. APPROXIMATION OF THE TIME TO INITIATE THE EVACUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří POKORNÝ

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the basic prerequisites for securing the safety of people at large group events is to ensure their evacuation in case of emergencies. This article deals with the approximations of time to initiate the evacuation of persons in case of a fire at large group events organized in outdoor spaces. The solution is based on the principles of determining the period to initiate the evacuation of persons in terms of international ISO standards. Considering the specificities of the given outdoor space and possible related security measures, the article recommends the relevant sufficient amount of time to initiate an evacuation.

  9. Evacuation routes performances and fire safety of buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laban Mirjana Đ.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residential buildings, public and business facilities with large number of occupants are particularly exposed to the risk of event with catastrophic consequences, especially in case of fire. Evacuation routes must be separated fire compartments with surfaces made of non-combustible materials. Safe evacuation of building occupants in case of fire is a crucial requirement for the preservation of human life in building. In our engineering practice, calculation model is usually applied in order to determine the time required for evacuation (SRPS TP 21. However, evacuation simulation models are more present in research papers, contributing to better assessment of flow of evacuation in the real time. These models could provide an efficient way of testing the safety of a building in the face of fire and indicate critical points at the evacuation paths. Computer models enable the development and analysis of multiple various scenarios during a fire event, contributing to defining the measures for improving the safety of the building in case of fire. This paper analyses the fulfilment of technical requirements for the safe evacuation and proposes improvement measures based on a comparative analysis of the time required for occupants' evacuation from the building (Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy in Novi Sad, obtained by calculation model and by using evacuation simulation software.

  10. Study on rapid evacuation in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available More and more high rising buildings emerged in modern cities, but emergency evacuation of tall buildings has been a worldwide difficult problem. In this paper, a new evacuation device for high rising buildings in fire accident was proposed and studied. This device mainly consisted of special spiral slideway and shunt valve. People in this device could fast slide down to the first floor under gravity without any electric power and physical strength, which is suitable for various emergency evacuation including mobility-impaired persons. The plane simulation test has shown that human being in alternative clockwise and counterclockwise movement will not become dizzy. The evacuated people should wear protection pad, which can prevent slider from being injured by surface friction with the slide, and eliminate the friction coefficient difference caused by different clothes and slide surface. The calculation results show that the evacuation speed of the new device is much faster than traditional staircases. Moreover, such new evacuation device can also be used as a means of vertical transportation in high-rise buildings partly. People can take it from any floor to ground floor directly, which not only save time for waiting for the lifts but also save the power. The new evacuation system is of simple structure, easy to use, and suitable for evacuation and partly used as vertical downwards traffic, which shows light on solving world-wide difficulties on fast evacuation in high-rise buildings.

  11. Start-up’s Performance: An Empirical Study on Dynamic Capabilities Under The Contributions of Bricolage and Social Capital

    OpenAIRE

    Huynh, Thanh; Patton, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Dynamic capabilities studies have emphasised how firms determine, integrate, build and reconfigure internal and external resources to adapt to rapidly changing business environment (Teece et al., 1997). Dynamic capabilities are described as routines to learn routines, resource integration consists of product development routines and strategic decision making, resource reconfiguration, and resource gain and release which include knowledge creation, alliance and acquisition routines...

  12. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  13. Optimal nonimaging integrated evacuated solar collector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, John D.; Duff, W. S.; O'Gallagher, Joseph J.; Winston, Roland

    1993-11-01

    A non imaging integrated evacuated solar collector for solar thermal energy collection is discussed which has the lower portion of the tubular glass vacuum enveloped shaped and inside surface mirrored to optimally concentrate sunlight onto an absorber tube in the vacuum. This design uses vacuum to eliminate heat loss from the absorber surface by conduction and convection of air, soda lime glass for the vacuum envelope material to lower cost, optimal non imaging concentration integrated with the glass vacuum envelope to lower cost and improve solar energy collection, and a selective absorber for the absorbing surface which has high absorptance and low emittance to lower heat loss by radiation and improve energy collection efficiency. This leads to a very low heat loss collector with high optical collection efficiency, which can operate at temperatures up to the order of 250 degree(s)C with good efficiency while being lower in cost than current evacuated solar collectors. Cost estimates are presented which indicate a cost for this solar collector system which can be competitive with the cost of fossil fuel heat energy sources when the collector system is produced in sufficient volume. Non imaging concentration, which reduces cost while improving performance, and which allows efficient solar energy collection without tracking the sun, is a key element in this solar collector design.

  14. Evacuate or Shelter-in-place? The Role of Corporate Memory and Political Environment in Hospital-evacuation Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Karen A; Griffin, Anne R; Heslin, Kevin C; Kranke, Derrick; Dobalian, Aram

    2015-06-01

    Hospital-evacuation decisions are rarely straightforward in protracted advance-warning events. Previous work provides little insight into the decision-making process around evacuation. This study was conducted to identify factors that most heavily influenced the decisions to evacuate the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) New York Harbor Healthcare System's (NYHHS; New York USA) Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene in 2011 and before Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Semi-structured interviews with 11 senior leaders were conducted on the processes and factors that influenced the evacuation decisions prior to each event. The most influential factor in the decision to evacuate the Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene was New York City's (NYC's) hospital-evacuation mandate. As a federal facility, the Manhattan VA medical center (VAMC) was exempt from the city's order, but decision makers felt compelled to comply. In the case of Superstorm Sandy, corporate memory of a similar 1992 storm that crippled the Manhattan facility drove the decision to evacuate before the storm hit. Results suggest that hospital-evacuation decisions are confounded by political considerations and are influenced by past disaster experience. Greater shared situational awareness among at-risk hospitals, along with a more coordinated approach to evacuation decision making, could reduce pressure on hospitals to make these high-stakes decisions. Systematic mechanisms for collecting, documenting, and sharing lessons learned from past disasters are sorely needed at the institutional, local, and national levels.

  15. A computer program for lattice-dynamical evaluation of Debye-Waller factors and thermodynamic functions for minerals, starting from empirical force fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilati, T.; Dermartin, F.; Gramaccioli, C.M.

    1993-01-01

    A wide-purpose computer program has been written (Fortran) for lattice dynamical evaluation of crystallographic and thermodynamic properties of solids, especially minerals or inorganic substances.The program essentially consists of a routine affording first and second derivatives of energy with respect to mass weighted coordinates, properly modulated by a wave vector algorithm, so that diagonalization can immediately follow and arrive at frequencies, density of states, and eventually to thermodynamic functions and Debye-Waller parameters thorough an automatic Brillouin-zone sampling procedure. The input consists of crystallographic data (unit-cell parameters, space group symmetry operations, atomic coordinates), plus atomic charge and empirical parameters, such as force constants or non-bonded atom-atom interaction energy functions in almost any form. It is also possible to obtain the structure corresponding to the energy minimum, or even to work with partial rigid bodies, in order to reduce the order of the dynamical matrices. The program provides for automatic symmetry labelling of the vibrational modes, in order to compare them with the experimental data; there is possibility of improving the empirical functions through a minimization routine. Examples of application and transferability of force fields to a series of minerals are provided. (author)

  16. Inglorious Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khair, Tabish

    2017-01-01

    Review of 'Inglorious Empire: What the British did to India' by Shashi Tharoor, London, Hurst Publishers, 2017, 296 pp., £20.00......Review of 'Inglorious Empire: What the British did to India' by Shashi Tharoor, London, Hurst Publishers, 2017, 296 pp., £20.00...

  17. Calculation of bulk etch rate’s semi-empirical equation for polymer track membranes in stationary and dynamic modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mashentseva

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the most urgent and extremely social problems in environmental safeties area in Kazakhstan is providing the population of all regions of the country with quality drinking water. Development of filter elements based on nuclear track-etch membranes may be considered as one of best solutions this problem. The values of bulk etch rate and activation energy were calculated in view the effect of temperature, alkaline solution concentration as well as stirring effect. The semi-empirical equation of the bulk etch rate for PET track membranes was calculated. As a result of theoretical and experimental studies a semi-empirical equation of the bulk etch rate VB=3.4∙1012∙C2.07∙exp(-0.825/kT for 12 microns PET film, irradiated by ions 84Kr15+ (energy of 1.75 MeV/nucleon at the heavy ion accelerator DC-60 in Astana branch of the INP NNC RK, was obtained. 

  18. Intrarectal pressures and balloon expulsion related to evacuation proctography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halligan, S; Thomas, J; Bartram, C

    1995-01-01

    Seventy four patients with constipation were examined by standard evacuation proctography and then attempted to expel a small, non-deformable rectal balloon, connected to a pressure transducer to measure intrarectal pressure. Simultaneous imaging related the intrarectal position of the balloon to rectal deformity. Inability to expel the balloon was associated proctographically with prolonged evacuation, incomplete evacuation, reduced anal canal diameter, and acute anorectal angulation during evacuation. The presence and size of rectocoele or intussusception was unrelated to voiding of paste or balloon. An independent linear combination of pelvic floor descent and evacuation time on proctography correctly predicted maximum intrarectal pressure in 74% of cases. No patient with both prolonged evacuation and reduced pelvic floor descent on proctography could void the balloon, as maximum intrarectal pressure was reduced in this group. A prolonged evacuation time on proctography, in combination with reduced pelvic floor descent, suggests defecatory disorder may be caused by inability to raise intrarectal pressure. A diagnosis of anismus should not be made on proctography solely on the basis of incomplete/prolonged evacuation, as this may simply reflect inadequate straining. PMID:7672656

  19. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  20. 14 CFR 121.570 - Airplane evacuation capability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airplane evacuation capability. 121.570... REQUIREMENTS: DOMESTIC, FLAG, AND SUPPLEMENTAL OPERATIONS Flight Operations § 121.570 Airplane evacuation capability. (a) No person may cause an airplane carrying passengers to be moved on the surface, take off, or...

  1. Computer simulation-based framework for transportation evacuation in major trip generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Since emergencies including both natural disasters and man-made incidents, are happening more and more : frequently, evacuation, especially transportation evacuation, is becoming a hot research focus in recent years. : Currently, transportation evacu...

  2. Evacuation proctography - examination technique and method of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braunschweig, R.; Schott, U.; Starlinger, M.

    1993-01-01

    Evacuation proctography is the most important imaging technique to supplement findings of physical examination, manometry, and endoscopy in patients presenting with pathologies in anorectal morphology and function. Indications for evacuation proctography include obstructed defecation or incomplete evacuation, imaging of ileal pouches following excision of the rectum, and suspected anorectal fistulae. Evacuation proctography with thick barium sulfate is performed under fluoroscopy. Documentation of the study can either be done by single-shot X-rays, video recording, or imaging with a 100-mm spot-film camera. Evacuation proctography shows morphologic changes such as spastic pelvic floor, rectocele, enterocele, intussusception and anal prolapse. Measurements can be performed to obtain the anorectal angle, location and mobility of the pelvic floor, and size as well as importance of a rectocele. Qualitative and quantitative data can only be interpreted along with clinical and manometric data. (orig.) [de

  3. Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Balcilar

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential diversification benefits of socially responsible investments for conventional stock portfolios by examining the risk spillovers and dynamic correlations between conventional and sustainability stock indexes from a number of regions. We observe significant unidirectional volatility transmissions from conventional to sustainable equities, suggesting that the criteria applied for socially responsible investments do not necessarily shield these securities from common market shocks. While significant dynamic correlations are observed between sustainable and conventional stocks, particularly in Europe, the analysis of both in- and out-of-sample dynamic portfolios suggests that supplementing conventional stock portfolios with sustainable counterparts improves the risk/return profile of stock portfolios in all regions. The findings overall suggest that sustainable investments can indeed provide diversification gains for conventional stock portfolios globally.

  4. Research on evacuation planning as nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Kazuya

    2007-10-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has introduced new concepts of precautionary action zone (PAZ) and urgent protective action planning zone (UPZ) in 'Preparedness and Response for a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency' (GS-R-2 (2002)), in order to reduce substantially the risk of severe deterministic health effects. Open literature based research was made to reveal problems on evacuation planning and the preparedness for nuclear emergency arising from introduction of PAZ into Japan that has applied the emergency planning zone (EPZ) concept currently. In regard to application of PAZ, it should be noted that the requirements for preparedness and response for a nuclear or radiological emergency are not only dimensional but also timely. The principal issue is implementation of evacuation of precautionary decided area within several hours. The logic of evacuation planning for a nuclear emergency and the methods of advance public education and information in the U.S. is effective for even prompt evacuation to the outside of the EPZ. As concerns evacuation planning for a nuclear emergency in Japan, several important issues to be considered were found, that is, selection of public reception centers which are outside area of the EPZ, an unique reception center assigned to each emergency response planning area, public education and information of practical details about the evacuation plan in advance, and necessity of the evacuation time estimates. To establish a practical evacuation planning guide for nuclear emergencies, further researches on application of traffic simulation technology to evacuation time estimates and on knowledge of actual evacuation experience in natural disasters and chemical plant accidents are required. (author)

  5. A stationary evacuated collector with integrated concentrator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snail, K.A.; O' Gallagher, J.J.; Winston, R.

    1984-01-01

    A comprehensive set of experimental tests and detailed optical and thermal models are presented for a newly developed solar thermal collector. The new collector has an optical efficiency of 65 per cent and achieves thermal efficiencies of better than 50 per cent at fluid temperatures of 200/sup 0/C without tracking the sun. The simultaneous features of high temperature operation and a fully stationary mount are made possible by combining vacuum insulation, spectrally selective coatings, and nonimaging concentration in a novel way. These 3 design elements are ''integrated'' together in a self containe unit by shaping the outer glass envelope of a conventional evacuated tube into the profile of a nonimaging CPC-type concentrator. This permits the use of a first surface mirror and eliminates the need for second cover glazing. The new collector has been given the name ''Integrated Stationary Evacuated Concentrator'', or ISEC collector. Not only is the peak thermal efficiency of the ISEC comparable to that of commercial tracking parabolic troughs, but projections of the average yearly energy delivery also show competitive performance with a net gain for temperatures below 200/sup 0/C. In addition, the ISEC is less subject to exposure induced degradation and could be mass produced with assembly methods similar to those used with fluorescent lamps. Since no tracking or tilt adjustments are ever required and because its sensitive optical surfaces are protected from the environment, the ISEC collector provides a simple, easily maintained solar thermal collector for the range 100-300/sup 0/C which is suitable for most climates and atmospheric conditions. Potential applications include space heating, air conditioning, and industrial process heat.

  6. Endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes. An empirical analysis of the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Z.-Q.; Guo, L.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2007-06-01

    A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is carried out on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis, and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in the scaling exponent α, which is different from the universal values 1/2 and 1, but also in the distributions of the ratio η= σexo / σendo of individual stocks. Both the scaling exponent α of fluctuations and the Hurst exponent Hi increase in logarithmic form with the time scale Δt and the mean traded value per minute , respectively. We find that the scaling exponent αendo of the endogenous fluctuations is independent of the time scale. Multiscaling and multifractal features are observed in the data as well. However, the inhomogeneous impact model is not verified.

  7. AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE FISHER EFFECT AND THE DYNAMIC RELATION BETWEEN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION IN SINGAPORE

    OpenAIRE

    KING FUEI LEE

    2009-01-01

    The Fisher effect postulated that real interest rate is constant, and that nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one together. This paper employs Johansen’s method to investigate for the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in the Singapore economy over the period 1976 to 2006, and finds evidence of a positive relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate while rejecting the notion of a full Fisher Effect. The dynamic relationship between nominal interest ...

  8. Research on Evacuation Based on Social Force Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.; Deng, Z.; Li, W.; Lin, J.

    2017-09-01

    Crowded centers always cause personnel casualties in evacuation operations. Stampede events often occur by hit, squeeze and crush due to panic. It is of vital important to alleviate such situation. With the deepening of personnel evacuation research, more and more researchers are committed to study individual behaviors and self-organization phenomenon in evacuation process. The study mainly includes: 1, enrich the social force model from different facets such as visual, psychological, external force to descript more realistic evacuation; 2, research on causes and effects of self - organization phenomenon. In this paper, we focus on disorder motion that occurs in the crowded indoor publics, especially the narrow channel and safety exits and other special arteries. We put forward the improved social force model to depict pedestrians' behaviors, an orderly speed-stratification evacuation method to solve disorder problem, and shape-changed export to alleviate congestion. The result of this work shows an improvement of evacuation efficiency by 19.5 %. Guiding pedestrians' direction to slow down the influence of social forces has a guidance function in improving the efficiency of indoor emergency evacuation.

  9. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

  10. Burning down the brewery: establishing and evacuating an ancient imperial colony at Cerro Baul, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, Michael E; Nash, Donna J; Williams, Patrick Ryan; DeFrance, Susan D; Miranda, Ana; Ruales, Mario

    2005-11-29

    Before the Inca reigned, two empires held sway over the central Andes from anno Domini 600 to 1000: the Wari empire to the north ruled much of Peru, and Tiwanaku to the south reigned in Bolivia. Face-to-face contact came when both colonized the Moquegua Valley sierra in southern Peru. The state-sponsored Wari incursion, described here, entailed large-scale agrarian reclamation to sustain the occupation of two hills and the adjacent high mesa of Cerro Baúl. Monumental buildings were erected atop the mesa to serve an embassy-like delegation of nobles and attendant personnel that endured for centuries. Final evacuation of the Baúl enclave was accompanied by elaborate ceremonies with brewing, drinking, feasting, vessel smashing, and building burning.

  11. An analysis of evacuation options for nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tawil, J J; Strenge, D L; Schultz, R W

    1987-11-01

    The threat of release of a hazardous substance into the atmosphere will sometimes require that the population at risk be evacuated. If the substance is particularly hazardous or the release is exceptionally large, then an extensive area may have to be evacuated at substantial cost. In this report we consider the threat posed by the accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant. The report's objective is to establish relationships between radiation dose and the cost of evacuation under a wide variety of conditions. The dose can almost always be reduced by evacuating the population from a larger area. However, extending the evacuation zone outward will cause evacuation costs to increase. The purpose of this analysis was to provide the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a data base for evaluating whether implementation costs and risks averted could be used to justify evacuation at lower doses than would be required based on acceptable risk of health effects alone. The procedures used and results of these analyses are being made available as background information for use by others. In this report we develop cost/dose relationships for 54 scenarios that are based upon the severity of the reactor accident, meteorological conditions during the release of radionuclides into the environment, and the angular width of the evacuation zone. The 54 scenarios are derived from combinations of three accident severity levels, six meteorological conditions and evacuation zone widths of 70 deg, 90 deg, and 180 deg. Appendix tables are provided to allow acceptable evaluation of the cost/dose relationships for a wide variety of scenarios. Guidance and examples are provided in the text to show how these tables can be used.

  12. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

  13. Endoscopic burr hole evacuation of an acute subdural hematoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codd, Patrick J; Venteicher, Andrew S; Agarwalla, Pankaj K; Kahle, Kristopher T; Jho, David H

    2013-12-01

    Acute subdural hematoma evacuations frequently necessitate large craniotomies with extended operative times and high relative blood loss, which can lead to additional morbidity for the patient. While endoscopic minimally invasive approaches to chronic subdural collections have been successfully demonstrated, this technique has not previously been applied to acute subdural hematomas. The authors report their experience with an 87-year-old patient presenting with a large acute right-sided subdural hematoma successfully evacuated via an endoscopic minimally invasive technique. The operative approach is outlined, and the literature on endoscopic subdural collection evacuation reviewed. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Evacuation of children - movement on stairs and on Horizontal Plane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne

    2012-01-01

    in full scale evacuation experiments where two age groups 0-2 years and 3-6 years were analyzed separately. It was found that flow through doors, walking speeds and densities were age-dependent and differed strongly from the data in existing literature. The results showed higher walking speeds in spiral...... slower in horizontal plane than adults, however they were keen to run during the evacuations, in the latter case their travel speed increased and exceeded the adults’. Since the evacuation characteristics of children differ in many ways from those of adults, nowadays models badly comprehend...

  15. Effect of form of obstacle on speed of crowd evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, Ryosuke

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the form of an obstacle on the time that a crowd takes to evacuate a room, using a toy model. Pedestrians are modeled as active soft matter moving toward a point with intended velocities. An obstacle is placed in front of the exit, and it has one of four shapes: a cylindrical column, a triangular prism, a quadratic prism, or a diamond prism. Numerical results indicate that the evacuation-completion time depends on the shape of the obstacle. Obstacles with a circular cylinder (C.C.) shape yield the shortest evacuation-completion time in the proposed model.

  16. Empirical Study of How Traffic Intensity Detector Parameters Influence Dynamic Street Lighting Energy Consumption: A Case Study in Krakow, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Wojnicki

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The deployment of dynamic street lighting, which adjusts lighting levels to fulfill particular needs, leads to energy savings. These savings contribute to the overall lighting infrastructure maintenance cost. Yet another contribution is the cost of traffic intensity data. The data is read directly from sensor systems or intelligent transportation systems (ITSs. The more frequent the readings are, the more costly they become, because of hardware capabilities, data transfer and software license costs, among others. The paper investigates a relationship between the frequency of readings, in particular the averaging window size and step, and achieved energy savings. It is based on a simulation, taking into account a representative part of a city and traffic intensity data, which span over a period of one year. While the energy consumption reduction is simulated, all data, including each luminaire power setting, induction loop locations and street characteristics, come from a representative sample of the city of Krakow, Poland. Controlling the power settings complies with the lighting standard CEN/TR 13201. Analysis of the outcomes indicates that the shorter the window size or step are, the more energy saving that is available. In particular, for the previous standard CEN/TR 13201 2004, having the window size and step at 15 min results in 26.75% of energy saving, while reducing these values to 6 min provides 27%. Savings are more profound for the current standard (CEN/TR 13201 2014, assuming a 15 min size and step results in 47.43%, while having a 6 min size and step provides 47.69%. The results can serve as a guideline for identifying the economic viability of dynamic lighting control systems. Additionally, it can be observed that the current lighting standard provides far greater potential for dynamic control then the previous standard.

  17. Foreign institutional investments in India: An empirical analysis of dynamic interactions with stock market return and volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaishali S. Dhingra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions of foreign institutional investments with market returns and market volatility in India using both static and dynamic models based on daily data. The findings of both models show foreign investors as positive feedback traders while investing in the Indian market, and as negative feedback traders during their withdrawal. Using the impulse response functions based on vector autoregression, we find strong evidence that foreign institutional investments destabilise the market, particularly with selling activities, as they significantly increase the volatility.

  18. Environmental dynamic, business strategy, and financial performance: An empirical study of Indonesian property and real estate industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Firm’s strategic orientation involves synchronizing environmental dynamics, corporate strategy and capital structure in order to achieve firm performance targets. The co-alignment model used successfully in the hospitality industry might be used in a wider context as a framework in explain- ing these relationships simultaneously. Using the data of public firms in Indonesia during the pe- riod of 1996-2010, we found that co-alignment model can be implemented in property and real estate industry as well as in hospitality industry.

  19. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  20. Using historical accounts of harpsichord touch to empirically investigate the production and perception of dynamics on the 1788 Taskin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacRitchie, Jennifer; Nuti, Giulia

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the extent of production and perception of dynamic differences on a French historical harpsichord, extensively revised in 1788 by Pascal Taskin. A historical review reports on the descriptions of two different types of touch found in treatises of the 18th century. These two touches (loud/struck and soft/pressed) were used to perform single tones on the lower, upper, peau de buffle (PDB) registers (the last of which Taskin is credited with having invented) and the coupled 8-foot registers to investigate differences in dynamics. Acoustic measurements show varied differences of up to 11 dB for the two types of touch over different pitches in each register. The strongest difference is measured in the first harmonic of note F2 on the PDB. A listening experiment was conducted to test whether these differences are perceivable. Participants performed a discrimination task using pairs of single tones. Participants were able to perform significantly better than chance in correctly identifying whether pairs of single tones were same or different with respect to loudness [t(24) = 12.01, p < 0.001]. Accuracies were influenced by pitch and register, the PDB providing the strongest accuracies over the four registers tested.

  1. Using historical accounts of harpsichord touch to empirically investigate the production and perception of dynamics on the 1788 Taskin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer eMacritchie

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the extent of production and perception of dynamic differences on a French historical harpsichord, extensively revised in 1788 by Pascal Taskin. A historical review reports on the descriptions of two different types of touch found in treatises of the eighteenth century. These two touches (loud/struck and soft/pressed were used to perform single tones on the lower, upper, peau de buffle registers (the last of which Taskin is credited with having invented and the coupled 8-foot registers to investigate differences in dynamics. Acoustic measurements show varied differences of up to 11dB for the two types of touch over different pitches in each register. The strongest difference is measured in the first harmonic of note F2 on the peau de buffle. A listening experiment was conducted to test whether these differences are perceivable. Participants performed a discrimination task using pairs of single tones. Participants were able to perform significantly better than chance in correctly identifying whether pairs of single tones were same or different with respect to loudness (t (24 = 12.01, p < .001. Accuracies were influenced by pitch and register, the peau de buffle providing the strongest accuracies over the four registers tested.

  2. NEW GROWTH PLATFORM FRAMEWORK FOR SWISS ACUTE HOSPITALS - AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Alimpic

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Swiss health care is confronted with fundamental changes. On the one hand, there are increasing costs in patient treatments, caused by innovative technology with new high-capacity medical devices, and a lack of effectiveness and efficiency in the organisation of a hospital. On the other hand, hospitals do have decreasing revenues with the introduction of the new patient classification and tariff system DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups by 2012. For every DRG, hospitals will receive a fixed price, separate from the actual costs of the patient treatment. In this paper it was explored the case of 13 successful Swiss private acute hospitals which are also confronted with these pressures to reduce their costs of patient treatment and therefore to optimise their processes of care. This research focuses on dynamic capabilitie of the hospitals. Although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence, they have significant ‘best practise’ across firms (Eisenhardt and Martin, 2000. The research is started with the evaluation of new trends, key customers’ needs, and capabilities, with questionnaires for attending physicians and hospital managers. The NGP approach gives hospital managers the enough crucial information for a strategy formulation in fundamental changing environments, which is the key contribution of this manuscript.

  3. Progressive Time-Weighted Dynamic Energy Efficiency, Energy Decoupling Rate, and Decarbonization: An Empirical Study on G7 and BRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Jung Tu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Energy is a critical factor of economic growth, but the overuse of it results in global warming and climate change. Hence, energy efficiency improvement can help mitigate climate change and prevent economic losses or even ecological extinction. The data envelopment analysis (DEA approach has been extensively applied for energy efficiency estimation, but past studies of this estimation employ a static mode that does not consider consecutive periods and the carry-over effect. This study estimates energy efficiency under a weight-restricted dynamic DEA (WrD-DEA model, creates a weight-restricted dynamic energy efficiency (WrD-EE indicator, and discusses issues concerning the energy decoupling rate and decarbonization. We utilize members in the Group of Seven (G7 and BRICS (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa for our experimental observations. The main results herein are: (1 BRICS has larger room for improvement to achieve the standard ratio of the energy decoupling rate than the G7; (2 the G7 and BRICS do not converge to decarbonization; and (3 BRICS exhibits more rapid improvement on energy efficiency than the G7.

  4. BIM Based Virtual Environment for Fire Emergency Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent building emergency management research has highlighted the need for the effective utilization of dynamically changing building information. BIM (building information modelling can play a significant role in this process due to its comprehensive and standardized data format and integrated process. This paper introduces a BIM based virtual environment supported by virtual reality (VR and a serious game engine to address several key issues for building emergency management, for example, timely two-way information updating and better emergency awareness training. The focus of this paper lies on how to utilize BIM as a comprehensive building information provider to work with virtual reality technologies to build an adaptable immersive serious game environment to provide real-time fire evacuation guidance. The innovation lies on the seamless integration between BIM and a serious game based virtual reality (VR environment aiming at practical problem solving by leveraging state-of-the-art computing technologies. The system has been tested for its robustness and functionality against the development requirements, and the results showed promising potential to support more effective emergency management.

  5. BIM based virtual environment for fire emergency evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Li, Haijiang; Rezgui, Yacine; Bradley, Alex; Ong, Hoang N

    2014-01-01

    Recent building emergency management research has highlighted the need for the effective utilization of dynamically changing building information. BIM (building information modelling) can play a significant role in this process due to its comprehensive and standardized data format and integrated process. This paper introduces a BIM based virtual environment supported by virtual reality (VR) and a serious game engine to address several key issues for building emergency management, for example, timely two-way information updating and better emergency awareness training. The focus of this paper lies on how to utilize BIM as a comprehensive building information provider to work with virtual reality technologies to build an adaptable immersive serious game environment to provide real-time fire evacuation guidance. The innovation lies on the seamless integration between BIM and a serious game based virtual reality (VR) environment aiming at practical problem solving by leveraging state-of-the-art computing technologies. The system has been tested for its robustness and functionality against the development requirements, and the results showed promising potential to support more effective emergency management.

  6. Empirical likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Owen, Art B

    2001-01-01

    Empirical likelihood provides inferences whose validity does not depend on specifying a parametric model for the data. Because it uses a likelihood, the method has certain inherent advantages over resampling methods: it uses the data to determine the shape of the confidence regions, and it makes it easy to combined data from multiple sources. It also facilitates incorporating side information, and it simplifies accounting for censored, truncated, or biased sampling.One of the first books published on the subject, Empirical Likelihood offers an in-depth treatment of this method for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses. The author applies empirical likelihood to a range of problems, from those as simple as setting a confidence region for a univariate mean under IID sampling, to problems defined through smooth functions of means, regression models, generalized linear models, estimating equations, or kernel smooths, and to sampling with non-identically distributed data. Abundant figures offer vi...

  7. The Dynamic Character of a Psychological Contract between the Superior and the Employee (According to Empirical Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna ROGOZIŃSKA-PAWEŁCZYK

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the dynamic character of relationships between superiors and employees in the context of a psychological contract. One of the assumptions is that superiors and employees’ shared understanding of their mutual obligations and expectations underpins the performance of the psychological contract. The article explains the concept of a psychological contract and addresses possible breaches thereto as well as their impact on the shape of relationships between superiors and employees. Information necessary to carry out the analysis was obtained from surveys conducted with 178 representatives of large and medium-sized firms based in Poland and with 800 of their employees. In addition to determining the state and contents of a psychological contract as felt by superiors and employees, the article provides also a description and the rankings of their mutual expectations and obligations related to a psychological contract. The degree of similarity between the opinions of the surveyed superiors and employees on each other’s obligations and expectations was assessed with a specially constructed index (an opinion coincidence index, OCI. the results of the surveys and the direction and amount of OCI’s deviation from show that while employees and superiors frequently differ in the perceptions of their expectations and obligations, there are also areas where their opinions are identical. It has also been found that employees’ perception of the contents of a psychological contract depends on their age and the number of years they have worked in the organisation. This fact points to the dynamic character of a psychological contract.

  8. Teaching case studies on emergency evacuation : final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Through the development of four Harvard Kennedy School case studies, this project explored the policy and institutional dimensions of emergency evacuation planning and implementation in two major metropolitan areas Houston and New Orleans. By pro...

  9. Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1995-01-01

    ... evacuation decision-making. To accomplish this, the study provides information on the extent and severity of potential flooding from hurricanes, the associated vulnerable population, capacities of existing public shelters...

  10. Multi-hazard evacuation route and shelter planning for buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    A bi-level, two-stage, binary stochastic program with equilibrium constraints, and three variants, are presented that : support the planning and design of shelters and exits, along with hallway fortification strategies and associated : evacuation pat...

  11. Coordination of IVI and transit signal priority on transit evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    During an emergency evacuation, execution time is always critical to the evacuees who are : transit dependent. Transit Signal Priority (TSP) can speed up the transit services by prioritizing : the approaching bus at a signalized intersection. With th...

  12. Vesicovaginal fistula complicating uterine evacuation: a case report ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vesicovaginal fistula complicating uterine evacuation: a case report. MA Ijaiya, AP Aboyeji, GA Fawole, AAG Jimoh, OO Alabi, AO Olarinoye, OL Akintade, OK Ogah, DNC Nwachukwu, OA Alabi, SA Esuga, ZB Ijaiya ...

  13. Modelling gastric evacuation in gadoids feeding on crustaceans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner; Chabot, Denis; Couturier, C. S.

    2016-01-01

    A mechanistic, prey surface-dependent model was expanded to describe the course and rate of gastric evacuation in predatory fishes feeding on crustacean prey with robust exoskeletons. This was accomplished by adding a layer of higher resistance to the digestive processes outside the inner softer...... parts of a prey cylinder abstraction and splitting up the prey evacuation into two stages: an initial stage where the exoskeleton is cracked and a second where the prey remains are digested and evacuated. The model was parameterized for crustaceans with different levels of armour fed to Atlantic cod...... and Chionoecetes opilio. In accordance with the apparent intraspecific isometric relationship between exoskeleton mass and total body mass, the model described stage duration and rate of evacuation of the crustacean prey independently of meal and prey sizes. The duration of the first stage increased (0-33 h...

  14. Solar Heating Systems with Evacuated Tubular Solar Collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Lin; Furbo, Simon

    1998-01-01

    Recently different designed evacuated tubular solar collectors were introduced on the market by different Chinese companies. In the present study, investigations on the performance of four different Chinese evacuated tubular collectors and of solar heating systems using these collectors were...... carried out, employing both laboratory test and theoretical calculations. The collectors were tested in a small solar domestic hot water (SDHW) system in a laboratory test facility under realistic conditions. The yearly thermal performance of solar heating systems with these evacuated tubular collectors......, as well as with normal flat-plate collectors was calculated under Danish weather conditions. It is found that, for small SDHW systems with a combi tank design, an increase of 25% -55% net utilized solar energy can be achieved by using these evacuated tubular collectors instead of normal flat...

  15. Study of evacuation times based on recent accident history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1995-01-01

    A key parameter in the calculation of accident dose-risks by the RADTRAN 4 code is the time assigned for evacuation of the affected area surrounding the accident. Currently, in the interest of assured conservatism, this time is set at 24 hrs. Casual anecdotal evidence has indicated that this value is overly conservative and results in assignment of overly conservative estimates of accident dose-risk. Therefore, a survey of recent truck accidents involving various hazardous materials which required evacuation of surrounding populations reported in various news media was undertaken. Accounts of pertinent scenarios were gleaned from databases citing newspapers and other periodicals, and the local authorities involved in each were contacted to get details of the evacuation including time required. This paper presents the data obtained in the study and the resultant mean evacuation time plus limits and factors influencing specific results together with conclusions regarding the appropriate value to be used in the RADTRAN 4 code

  16. Analysis of community tsunami evacuation time: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunarto, Y.; Sari, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Tsunami in Indonesia is defined as local tsunami due to its occurrences which are within a distance of 200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. A local tsunami can be caused by an earthquake, landslide, or volcanic eruption. Tsunami arrival time in Indonesia is generally between 10-60 minutes. As the estimated time of the tsunami waves to reach the coast is 30 minutes after the earthquake, the community should go to the vertical or horizontal evacuation in less than 30 minutes. In an evacuation, the city frequently does the evacuation after obtaining official directions from the authorities. Otherwise, they perform an independent evacuation without correct instructions from the authorities. Both of these ways have several strengths and limitations. This study analyzes these methods regarding time as well as the number of people expected to be saved.

  17. The effect of meal size on gastric evacuation in whiting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    1998-01-01

    Gastric evacuation experiments were performed on whiting Merlangius merlangus fed discrete meals of different sizes. Herring Clupea harengus, sandeel Ammodytes tobianus, common goby Pomatoschistus microps, and brown shrimp Crangon crangon were tested as prey. A simple power model to describe...

  18. Evacuation zone changes in Belarussian wildlife populations following the Chernobyl nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plenin, A.E.

    1995-01-01

    Nine years of wildlife monitoring in the 30-km Chernobyl evacuation zone documented effects on faunal biodiversity at various levels of ecosystem integration, helping to focus future investigations needed to distinguish radioecological impacts from those caused by reduced human activity within this zone. Following the direct, aucte radiation effects on the fauna, some long-term stabilization appears in the radionuclide content of animal tissues. The recovery of faunal populations seems to depend more on the secondary effects of human evacuation than on direct radioecological impacts. Natural ecological succession may have accelerated due to the post-evacuation removal of human pressure on contaminated habitats. Cessation of human activity has most benefited the commercially hunted bird and mammal populations. Wild boar, elk, and roe deer populations also have increased to new levels of post-accident equilibrium whereas the recovery of other animal populations is less pronounced. While the number of some rare wildlife species increased in the affected communities, many of those wildlife populations normally associated with human activity have disappeared. In abandoned settlements, the succession of plant communities dominated by trees and shrubs now promotes recolonization by those wildlife communities that are more typical of woodland habitats undisturbed by human activity. These dynamic processes of transformation of wildlife communities offer a unique opportunity to study the development and conservation of wild animal biodiversity within the context of specific land use and landscape ecological changes

  19. Ultrasensitive leak detection during ultrahigh vacuum evacuation by quadrupole mass spectrometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Xu; Huang Tianbin; Wang Ligong; Jin Qiji; Cha Liangzhen

    2006-01-01

    One must do ultrasensitive leak detection during ultrahigh-vacuum (UHV) evacuation, especially just before the device is sealed off from the vacuum system, to guarantee the longevity of the sealed high-vacuum or even UHV devices with small volume. A quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) with an UHV evacuation system can be used under accumulation mode to do the testing. Possible accumulate modes, as well as their advantages and shortcomings, are studied experimentally and discussed in this paper. We found that the opening action of the metal valve during accumulation mode always severely affects the height of the peak indicated by QMS and causes considerable errors. If we determine the leak rate by the peak area instead of the peak height, the situation is much improved. This method has proven quite useful in ensuring the tightness quality for complex sealed UHV devices with small volumes. Ultrasensitive leak detection has been carried out for such real evacuating devices, and a leak rate of 2x10 -14 Pa·m 3 /s was detected, which is far lower than its dynamic mode and the detection limit of the current advanced commercial leak detectors

  20. Study of Evacuation Behavior of Coastal Gulf of Mexico Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharjee, Sanjoy; Petrolia, Daniel R.; Hanson, Terrill R.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the link between hurricane characteristics, demographics of the Coastal Gulf of Mexico residents, including their household location, and their respective evacuation behavior. Our study is significantly different from the previously made studies on hurricane evacuation behavior in two ways. At first, the research data is collected through recording responses to a series of hypothetical situations which are quite identical to the set of information that people are...

  1. An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navoda Dhananjika Edirisinghe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining price stability is one of the primary objectives of monetary policy in any economy as price instability, particularly high inflation, will cause to reduce economic growth by reducing investments and productivity growth. Therefore, investigating the existence of Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle is a necessary requirement in order to understand the nature, extent and dynamics of effective monetary policies in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this study is to investigate the existence of short run and long run Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle in Sri Lanka. The results from co-integration technique, Error Correction Model (ECM which employed in the study suggest that in Sri Lanka, nominal interest rates fully adjust for expected inflation in long-run. But in short-run, a significant positive association between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is there with absence of full Fisher Effect. Moreover the analysis has been extended and identified the existence of the Price Puzzle both in a short run and long run. Therefore, changes in monetary instruments do not appear to be completely effective in meeting the goal of low inflation. In order to solve this problem what we can recommend is, Sri Lanka should move towards inflation-targeting monetary policy system.

  2. Identification of individualised empirical models of carbohydrate and insulin effects on T1DM blood glucose dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cescon, Marzia; Johansson, Rolf; Renard, Eric; Maran, Alberto

    2014-07-01

    One of the main limiting factors in improving glucose control for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) subjects is the lack of a precise description of meal and insulin intake effects on blood glucose. Knowing the magnitude and duration of such effects would be useful not only for patients and physicians, but also for the development of a controller targeting glycaemia regulation. Therefore, in this paper we focus on estimating low-complexity yet physiologically sound and individualised multi-input single-output (MISO) models of the glucose metabolism in T1DM able to reflect the basic dynamical features of the glucose-insulin metabolic system in response to a meal intake or an insulin injection. The models are continuous-time second-order transfer functions relating the amount of carbohydrate of a meal and the insulin units of the accordingly administered dose (inputs) to plasma glucose evolution (output) and consist of few parameters clinically relevant to be estimated. The estimation strategy is continuous-time data-driven system identification and exploits a database in which meals and insulin boluses are separated in time, allowing the unique identification of the model parameters.

  3. An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Lan-Cui

    2008-01-01

    The world's future oil price is affected by many factors. The challenge, therefore, is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve. This paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve. Using this model, we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007-2010 and 2011-2020. Our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and, if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage, China should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level. The optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price; and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year. (author)

  4. Environmental dynamic, business strategy, and financial performance: An empirical study of Indonesian property and real estate industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Firm’s strategic orientation involves synchronizing environmental dynamics, corporate strategy and capital structure in order to achieve firm performance targets. The co-alignment model used successfully in the hospitality industry might be used in a wider context as a framework in explaining these relationships simultaneously. Using the data of public firms in Indonesia during the period of 1996-2010, we found that co-alignment model can be implemented in property and real estate industry as well as in hospitality industry. Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  5. Complex multimaterial insulating frames for windows with evacuated glazing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yueping; Eames, Philip C.; Hyde, Trevor J. [Centre for Sustainable Technologies, School of the Built Environment, University of Ulster, Newtownabbey, N. Ireland BT37 0QB (United Kingdom); Norton, Brian [Dublin Institute of Technology, Aungier Street, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2005-09-01

    The thermal performance of a complex multimaterial frame consisting of an exoskeleton framework and cavities filled with insulant materials enclosing an evacuated glazing was simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model and the results were validated experimentally using a guarded hot box calorimeter. The analysed 0.5m by 0.5m evacuated glazing consisted of two low-emittance film coated glass panes supported by an array of 0.32mm diameter pillars spaced 25mm apart, contiguously sealed by a 10mm wide metal edge seal. Thermal performance of windows employing evacuated glazing set in various complex multimaterial frames were analysed in detail. Very good agreement was found between simulations and experimental measurements of surface temperatures of the evacuated glazing window system. The heat loss from a window with an evacuated glazing and a complex multimaterial frame is about 80% of that for a window comprised of an evacuated glazing set in a single material solid frame. (author)

  6. Complex multimaterial insulating frames for windows with evacuated glazing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yueping Fang; Eames, P.C.; Hyde, T.J. [University of Ulster, Newtonabbey (United Kingdom). Centre for Sustainable Technologies; Norton, B. [Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin (Ireland)

    2005-09-01

    The thermal performance of a complex multimaterial frame consisting of an exoskeleton framework and cavities filled with insulant materials enclosing an evacuated glazing was simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model and the results were validated experimentally using a guarded hot box calorimeter. The analysed 0.5 m by 0.5 m evacuated glazing consisted of two low-emittance film coated glass panes supported by an array of 0.32 mm diameter pillars spaced 25 mm apart, contiguously sealed by a 10 mm wide metal edge seal. Thermal performance of windows employing evacuated glazing set in various complex multimaterial frames were analysed in detail. Very good agreement was found between simulations and experimental measurements of surface temperatures of the evacuated glazing window system. The heat loss from a window with an evacuated glazing and a complex multimaterial frame is about 80% of that for a window comprised of an evacuated glazing set in a single material solid frame. (author)

  7. Evacuation decision-making at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeigler, D.J.; Johnson, J.H. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    During the emergency at the Three Mile Island generating station in the United States, evacuation became a common adaptive response among the local population. The planning for nuclear emergencies in the US has proceeded as if there were no significant differences between nuclear and other types of disasters requiring evacuation. In the United Kingdom, emergency planning for a new generation of pressurized water reactors, about which there is legitimate safety concern, has been influenced not at all by the experience with the Three Mile Island PWR in 1979. The TMI accident has been the US's most serious experience with a nuclear plant accident and therefore is an appropriate analogy for predicting the evacuation response to future nuclear emergencies. In this light, the authors accept the need to develop models that will enable them to predict the magnitude of the evacuation shadow phenomenon around other nuclear power sites and estimate its impact on our plans to remove the threatened population from the hazard zone in the minimum amount of time. Rather than depend on education and information control to stifle evacuation response, the authors believe that evacuation plans need to build on people's natural behavioural inclinations to protect themselves in response to the nuclear hazard

  8. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E.

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  9. Multi-objective evacuation routing optimization for toxic cloud releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gai, Wen-mei; Deng, Yun-feng; Jiang, Zhong-an; Li, Jing; Du, Yan

    2017-01-01

    This paper develops a model for assessing the risks associated with the evacuation process in response to potential chemical accidents, based on which a multi-objective evacuation routing model for toxic cloud releases is proposed taking into account that the travel speed on each arc will be affected by disaster extension. The objectives of the evacuation routing model are to minimize travel time and individual evacuation risk along a path respectively. Two heuristic algorithms are proposed to solve the multi-objective evacuation routing model. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the model and algorithms presented in this paper. And, the methodology with appropriate modification is suitable for supporting decisions in assessing emergency route selection in other cases (fires, nuclear accidents). - Highlights: • A model for assessing and visualizing the risks is developed. • A multi-objective evacuation routing model is proposed for toxic cloud releases. • A modified Dijkstra algorithm is designed to obtain an solution of the model. • Two heuristic algorithms have been developed as the optimization tool.

  10. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E. [Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Civil Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

    2012-05-22

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  11. Environmental efficiency and labour productivity. Trade-off or joint dynamics? A theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from Italy using NAMEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzanti, Massimiliano; Zoboli, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we test an adapted EKC hypothesis to verify the relationship between 'environmental efficiency' (namely emissions per unit of value added) and labour productivity (value added per employee). We exploit NAMEA data on Italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991-2001. We employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results. On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation, firm performances and environmental externalities, we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity - a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity - which departs from the conventional mainstream view. The hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance, which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation. We find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency. Labour productivity dynamics, then, seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process. Taking a disaggregate sector perspective, we show that the macro-aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non-homogenous way across pollutants. Services tend always to show a 'complementary' relationship, while industry seems to be associated with inverted U-shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides. This is in line with our expectations. In any case, EKC shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial and structural change, and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by referring to impure public goods arguments

  12. Empirical Hamiltonians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peggs, S.; Talman, R.

    1987-01-01

    As proton accelerators get larger, and include more magnets, the conventional tracking programs which simulate them run slower. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method, still under development, in which element-by-element tracking around one turn is replaced by a single man, which can be processed far faster. It is assumed for this method that a conventional program exists which can perform faithful tracking in the lattice under study for some hundreds of turns, with all lattice parameters held constant. An empirical map is then generated by comparison with the tracking program. A procedure has been outlined for determining an empirical Hamiltonian, which can represent motion through many nonlinear kicks, by taking data from a conventional tracking program. Though derived by an approximate method this Hamiltonian is analytic in form and can be subjected to further analysis of varying degrees of mathematical rigor. Even though the empirical procedure has only been described in one transverse dimension, there is good reason to hope that it can be extended to include two transverse dimensions, so that it can become a more practical tool in realistic cases

  13. Social influence on evacuation behavior in real and virtual environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Kinateder

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Virtual reality (VR is a promising tool to study evacuation behavior as it allows experimentally controlled, safe simulation of otherwise dangerous situations. However, validation studies comparing evacuation behavior in real and virtual environments are still scarce. We compare the decision to evacuate in response to a fire alarm in matched physical and virtual environments. 150 participants were tested individually in a one-trial experiment in one of three conditions. In the Control condition, the fire alarm sounded while the participant performed a bogus perceptual matching task. In the Passive bystander condition, the participant performed the task together with a confederate who ignored the fire alarm. In the Active bystander condition, the confederate left the room when the fire alarm went off. Half of the participants in each condition experienced the scenario in the real laboratory, and the other half in a matched virtual environment with a virtual bystander, presented in a head-mounted display. The active bystander group was more likely to evacuate, and the passive bystander group less likely to evacuate, than the control group. This pattern of social influence was observed in both the real and virtual environments, although the overall response to the virtual alarm was reduced; positive influence was comparable, whereas negative influence was weaker in VR. We found no reliable gender effects for the participant or the bystander. These findings extend the bystander effect to the decision to evacuate, revealing a positive as well as the previous negative social influence. The results support the ecological validity of VR as a research tool to study evacuation behavior in emergency situations, with the caveat that effect sizes may be smaller in VR.

  14. Development of a flow controller for long-term sampling of gases and vapors using evacuated canisters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossner, Alan; Farant, Jean Pierre; Simon, Philippe; Wick, David P

    2002-11-15

    Anthropogenic activities contribute to the release of a wide variety of volatile organic compounds (VOC) into microenvironments. Developing and implementing new air sampling technologies that allow for the characterization of exposures to VOC can be useful for evaluating environmental and health concerns arising from such occurrences. A novel air sampler based on the use of a capillary flow controller connected to evacuated canisters (300 mL, 1 and 6 L) was designed and tested. The capillary tube, used to control the flow of air, is a variation on a sharp-edge orifice flow controller. It essentially controls the velocity of the fluid (air) as a function of the properties of the fluid, tube diameter and length. A model to predict flow rate in this dynamic system was developed. The mathematical model presented here was developed using the Hagen-Poiseuille equation and the ideal gas law to predict flow into the canisters used to sample for long periods of time. The Hagen-Poiseuille equation shows the relationship between flow rate, pressure gradient, capillary resistance, fluid viscosity, capillary length and diameter. The flow rates evaluated were extremely low, ranging from 0.05 to 1 mL min(-1). The model was compared with experimental results and was shown to overestimate the flow rate. Empirical equations were developed to more accurately predict flow for the 300 mL, 1 and 6 L canisters used for sampling periods ranging from several hours to one month. The theoretical and observed flow rates for different capillary geometries were evaluated. Each capillary flow controller geometry that was tested was found to generate very reproducible results, RSD gas chromatograph. The capillary flow controller was found to exceed the performance of the sorbent samplers in this comparison.

  15. The Influence of subway climatology on gas dispersion and the effectiveness of guided evacuations in a complex subway station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Brüne

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a strategy that integrates data from tracer gas experiments with results from pedestrian simulation software in the evaluation of different evacuation procedures for subway stations in response to a fire or a terrorist attack with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and enhanced conventional weapons (CBRNE. The study demonstrates that by combining the two data sets a greater understanding of the impact of different evacuations routes on an evacuee's health is gained. It is shown that by controlling the routes pedestrians would use to exit a subway station, the number of fatalities and evacuees with long term health issues can be reduced. It is highlighted that a dynamic evacuation guiding system based on subway climatology would take into account the source of the toxin, the resulting dispersal of gas, smoke, etc. and the subway climatology at the time. In doing so, it would be possible to identify the most endangered areas and guide passengers via an adaptive escape route using audio and visual techniques. Information on the evolution of the emergency situation could also simultaneously be relayed back to the rescue forces to help to plan the rescue and evacuation procedures and optimise the deployment of the search and rescue teams.

  16. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

  17. A Simple Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Tool for First Responders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Daniel B [ORNL; Payne, Patricia W [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Although modeling and simulation of mass evacuations during a natural or man-made disaster is an on-going and vigorous area of study, tool adoption by front-line first responders is uneven. Some of the factors that account for this situation include cost and complexity of the software. For several years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been actively developing the free Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit (IMPACT) to address these issues. One of the components of IMPACT is a multi-agent simulation module for area-based and path-based evacuations. The user interface is designed so that anyone familiar with typical computer drawing tools can quickly author a geospatially-correct evacuation visualization suitable for table-top exercises. Since IMPACT is designed for use in the field where network communications may not be available, quick on-site evacuation alternatives can be evaluated to keep pace with a fluid threat situation. Realism is enhanced by incorporating collision avoidance into the simulation. Statistics are gathered as the simulation unfolds, including most importantly time-to-evacuate, to help first responders choose the best course of action.

  18. Fluid Line Evacuation and Freezing Experiments for Digital Radiator Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berisford, Daniel F.; Birur, Gajanana C.; Miller, Jennifer R.; Sunada, Eric T.; Ganapathi, Gani B.; Stephan, Ryan; Johnson, Mark

    2011-01-01

    The digital radiator technology is one of three variable heat rejection technologies being investigated for future human-rated NASA missions. The digital radiator concept is based on a mechanically pumped fluid loop with parallel tubes carrying coolant to reject heat from the radiator surface. A series of valves actuate to start and stop fluid flow to di erent combinations of tubes, in order to vary the heat rejection capability of the radiator by a factor of 10 or more. When the flow in a particular leg is stopped, the fluid temperature drops and the fluid can freeze, causing damage or preventing flow from restarting. For this reason, the liquid in a stopped leg must be partially or fully evacuated upon shutdown. One of the challenges facing fluid evacuation from closed tubes arises from the vapor generated during pumping to low pressure, which can cause pump cavitation and incomplete evacuation. Here we present a series of laboratory experiments demonstrating fluid evacuation techniques to overcome these challenges by applying heat and pumping to partial vacuum. Also presented are results from qualitative testing of the freezing characteristics of several different candidate fluids, which demonstrate significant di erences in freezing properties, and give insight to the evacuation process.

  19. Simulation of the shopping center 'Zona I' evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important and the most complex tasks in human protection and human safety in objects is the projecting of the object evacuation. There are many factors that could effect on the opportune living of object such as object assignment, arrangement of rooms, arrangement of furniture, arrangement of exits, occupant speed and many other that human lives and material properties depend on. This is very important for objects with great number of humans, such as high residential objects, shopping centers, schools, hospitals etc. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situations and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of the shopping center 'Zona I' in Niš.

  20. Effectiveness and risks associated with sheltering and evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohseni, A.; McKenna, T.

    1995-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have assessed the risks and benefits associated with evacuation and sheltering following a severe reactor accident. In the case of a severe accident and the associated uncertainties with the source term and containment behaviour, these assessments suggest that prompt evacuation of areas close to the plant offers the highest protection of the public against acute doses. Sheltering may be used as an alternative in special circumstances where evacuation may not be feasible. The source term associated with reactor accidents and containment failure mechanism affect the effectiveness of different protective measures. A comparison of different protective measures is made and results discussed. (Author). 9 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  1. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A generic transportation network model for the calculation of evacuation time estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, M.P.; Desrosiers, A.E.; Urbanik, T. II

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuation times for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies. (author)

  2. SCALING AN URBAN EMERGENCY EVACUATION FRAMEWORK: CHALLENGES AND PRACTICES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karthik, Rajasekar [ORNL; Lu, Wei [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Critical infrastructure disruption, caused by severe weather events, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc., has significant impacts on urban transportation systems. We built a computational framework to simulate urban transportation systems under critical infrastructure disruption in order to aid real-time emergency evacuation. This framework will use large scale datasets to provide a scalable tool for emergency planning and management. Our framework, World-Wide Emergency Evacuation (WWEE), integrates population distribution and urban infrastructure networks to model travel demand in emergency situations at global level. Also, a computational model of agent-based traffic simulation is used to provide an optimal evacuation plan for traffic operation purpose [1]. In addition, our framework provides a web-based high resolution visualization tool for emergency evacuation modelers and practitioners. We have successfully tested our framework with scenarios in both United States (Alexandria, VA) and Europe (Berlin, Germany) [2]. However, there are still some major drawbacks for scaling this framework to handle big data workloads in real time. On our back-end, lack of proper infrastructure limits us in ability to process large amounts of data, run the simulation efficiently and quickly, and provide fast retrieval and serving of data. On the front-end, the visualization performance of microscopic evacuation results is still not efficient enough due to high volume data communication between server and client. We are addressing these drawbacks by using cloud computing and next-generation web technologies, namely Node.js, NoSQL, WebGL, Open Layers 3 and HTML5 technologies. We will describe briefly about each one and how we are using and leveraging these technologies to provide an efficient tool for emergency management organizations. Our early experimentation demonstrates that using above technologies is a promising approach to build a scalable and high performance urban

  3. Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Gordon, Leslie C.

    2015-01-01

    Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, for use by researchers and emergency managers to estimate how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a tsunami-hazard zone. The ArcGIS software extension, released in September 2014, allows the user to create maps showing travel times out of hazard zones and to determine the number of people that may or may not have enough time to evacuate. The maps take into account the elevation changes and the different types of land cover that a person would encounter along the way.

  4. Association between Empirically Estimated Monsoon Dynamics and Other Weather Factors and Historical Tea Yields in China: Results from a Yield Response Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Boehm

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Farmers in China’s tea-growing regions report that monsoon dynamics and other weather factors are changing and that this is affecting tea harvest decisions. To assess the effect of climate change on tea production in China, this study uses historical weather and production data from 1980 to 2011 to construct a yield response model that estimates the partial effect of weather factors on tea yields in China, with a specific focus on East Asian Monsoon dynamics. Tea (Camellia sinensis (L. Kunze has not been studied using these methods even though it is an important crop for human nutrition and the economic well-being of rural communities in many countries. Previous studies have approximated the monsoon period using historical average onset and retreat dates, which we believe limits our understanding of how changing monsoon patterns affect crop productivity. In our analysis, we instead estimate the monsoon season across China’s tea growing regions empirically by identifying the unknown breakpoints in the year-by-province cumulative precipitation. We find that a 1% increase in the monsoon retreat date is associated with 0.481%–0.535% reduction in tea yield. In the previous year, we also find that a 1% increase in the date of the monsoon retreat is associated with a 0.604% decrease in tea yields. For precipitation, we find that a 1% increase in average daily precipitation occurring during the monsoon period is associated with a 0.184%–0.262% reduction in tea yields. In addition, our models show that 1% increase in the average daily monsoon precipitation from the previous growing season is associated with 0.258%–0.327% decline in yields. We also find that a 1% decrease in solar radiation in the previous growing season is associated with 0.554%-0.864% decrease in tea yields. These findings suggest the need for adaptive management and harvesting strategies given climate change projections and the known negative association between excess

  5. 76 FR 43265 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Evacuation Movement and Behavior Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-20

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Institute of Standards and Technology Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Evacuation Movement and Behavior Questionnaire AGENCY: National Institute of... collecting data on evacuation behavior and movement of occupants from approximately 50 high-rise building...

  6. Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area : [technical summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    When hurricanes threaten coastal cities, the most eff ective strategy to mitigate mortality is to evacuate the population : at risk. However, public offi cials face several transportation challenges when managing evacuations from a large city : like ...

  7. Optimal control of diarrhea transmission in a flood evacuation zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwina, N.; Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.

    2014-03-01

    Evacuation of residents and diarrhea disease outbreak in evacuation zone have become serious problem that frequently happened during flood periods. Limited clean water supply and infrastructure in evacuation zone contribute to a critical spread of diarrhea. Transmission of diarrhea disease can be reduced by controlling clean water supply and treating diarrhea patients properly. These treatments require significant amount of budget, which may not be fulfilled in the fields. In his paper, transmission of diarrhea disease in evacuation zone using SIRS model is presented as control optimum problem with clean water supply and rate of treated patients as input controls. Existence and stability of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are investigated analytically for constant input controls. Optimum clean water supply and rate of treatment are found using optimum control technique. Optimal results for transmission of diarrhea and the corresponding controls during the period of observation are simulated numerically. The optimum result shows that transmission of diarrhea disease can be controlled with proper combination of water supply and rate of treatment within allowable budget.

  8. Performance analysis of double basin solar still with evacuated tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hitesh N Panchal; Shah, P. K.

    2013-01-01

    Solar still is a very simple device, which is used for solar distillation process. In this research work, double basin solar still is made from locally available materials. Double basin solar still is made in such a way that, outer basin is exposed to sun and lower side of inner basin is directly connected with evacuated tubes to increase distillate output and reducing heat losses of a solar still. The overall size of the lower basin is about 1006 mm x 325 mm x 380 mm, the outer basin is about 1006 mm x 536 mm x 100 mm Black granite gravel is used to increase distillate output by reducing quantity of brackish or saline water in the both basins. Several experiments have conducted to determine the performance of a solar still in climate conditions of Mehsana (latitude of 23 degree 59' and longitude of 72 degree 38'), Gujarat, like a double basin solar still alone, double basin solar still with different size black granite gravel, double basin solar still with evacuated tubes and double basin solar still with evacuated tubes and different size black granite gravel. Experimental results show that, connecting evacuated tubes with the lower side of the inner basin increases daily distillate output of 56% and is increased by 60%, 63% and 67% with average 10 mm, 20 mm and 30 mm size black granite gravel. Economic analysis of present double basin solar still is 195 days. (authors)

  9. Nonlinear Effects in Examples of Crowd Evacuation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens; Berg Thomsen, Kristian; Sørensen, Asger

    2014-01-01

    Severe accidents with many fatalities have occurred when too many pedestrians had to maneuver in too tight surroundings, as during evacuations of mass events. This demonstrates the importance of a better general understanding of pedestrians and emergent complex behavior in crowds. To this end, we...

  10. Virtual environment simulation as a tool to support evacuation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mol, Antonio C.; Grecco, Claudio H.S.; Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Jorge, Carlos A.F.; Sales, Douglas S.; Couto, Pedro M.; Botelho, Felipe M.; Bastos, Felipe R.

    2007-01-01

    This work is a preliminary study of the use of a free game-engine as a tool to build and to navigate in virtual environments, with a good degree of realism, for virtual simulations of evacuation from building and risk zones. To achieve this goal, some adjustments in the game engine have been implemented. A real building with four floors, consisting of some rooms with furniture and people, has been virtually implemented. Simulations of simple different evacuation scenarios have been performed, measuring the total time spent in each case. The measured times have been compared with their corresponding real evacuation times, measured in the real building. The first results have demonstrated that the virtual environment building with the free game engine is capable to reproduce the real situation with a satisfactory level. However, it is important to emphasize that such virtual simulations serve only as an aid in the planning of real evacuation simulations, and as such must never substitute the later. (author)

  11. Emergency evacuation : how better interior design can improve passenger flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, L.C.; Skjong, R.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents some conclusions from the EU basic research project "MEPdesign" relevant for design of ship interiors. The findings are discussed with regard to passenger flow as a function of design parameters. The paper explains that current evacuation analyses may be overly optimistic. The

  12. Pathways toward a low cost evacuated collector system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, J. R.; Schertz, W. W.; Allen, J. W.; Ogallagher, J. J.; Winston, R.

    The goal of widespread use of solar thermal collectors will only be achieved when they are proven to be economically superior to competing energy sources. Evacuated tubular collectors appear to have the potential to achieve this goal. An advanced evacuated collector using nonimaging concentration under development at the University of Chicago and Argonne can achieve a 50% seasonal efficiency at heat delivery temperatures in excess of 170C. The same collector has an optical efficiency so that low temperature performance is also excellent. In this advanced collector design all of the critical components are enclosed in the vacuum, and the collector has an inherently long lifetime. The current cost of evacuated systems is too high, mainly because the volume of production has been too low to realize economies of mass production. It appears that certain design features of evacuated collectors can be changed (e.g., use of heat pipe absorbers) so as to introduce new system design and market strategy options that can reduce the balance of system cost.

  13. CT guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive and traumatic intracerebral hematomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondo, Hideki; Matsumoto, Keizo

    1983-01-01

    Recent advancement of CT system provides not only definite diagnosis and location of intracerebral hematoma but also coordinates of the center of the hematoma. Trials of stereotactic evacuation of the hematoma have been reported by some authors in the cases of subacute or chronic stages of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage. In this series, similar surgery has been performed in 33 cases of hypertensive intracerebral hematoma including 22 cases in acute stage, and 2 cases of traumatic hematoma. Clinical outcomes were investigated and the results were considered to be equivalent or rather better in the conventional microsurgery with evacuation of hematoma under direct vision. However, there still remained controversial problems in the cases of threatened herniation signs, because in these cases regular surgery with total evacuation of the hematoma at one time might have been preferable. The benefits of this CT guided stereotactic approach for the evacuation of the hematoma were thought to be as follow: 1) the procedure is simple and safe, 2) operation is readily performed under local anesthesia, and 3) the hematoma was drained out totally by means of urokinase activity. It is our impression that this surgery not only is indicated as emergency treatment for the patients of high-age or in high risk, but also can institute as a routine surgery for the intracerebral hematomas in patients showing no herniation sign. (J.P.N.)

  14. Quantitative Comparison Between Crowd Models for Evacuation Planning and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viswanathan, V.; Lee, C.E.; Lees, M.H.; Cheong, S.A.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Crowd simulation is rapidly becoming a standard tool for evacuation planning and evaluation. However, the many crowd models in the literature are structurally different, and few have been rigorously calibrated against real-world egress data, especially in emergency situations. In this paper we

  15. A heterogeneous lattice gas model for simulating pedestrian evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiwei; Chen, Jianqiao; Zheng, Yaochen; Wei, Junhong

    2012-02-01

    Based on the cellular automata method (CA model) and the mobile lattice gas model (MLG model), we have developed a heterogeneous lattice gas model for simulating pedestrian evacuation processes in an emergency. A local population density concept is introduced first. The update rule in the new model depends on the local population density and the exit crowded degree factor. The drift D, which is one of the key parameters influencing the evacuation process, is allowed to change according to the local population density of the pedestrians. Interactions including attraction, repulsion, and friction between every two pedestrians and those between a pedestrian and the building wall are described by a nonlinear function of the corresponding distance, and the repulsion forces increase sharply as the distances get small. A critical force of injury is introduced into the model, and its effects on the evacuation process are investigated. The model proposed has heterogeneous features as compared to the MLG model or the basic CA model. Numerical examples show that the model proposed can capture the basic features of pedestrian evacuation, such as clogging and arching phenomena.

  16. 14 CFR Appendix J to Part 25 - Emergency Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Pt. 25, App. J Appendix J to Part 25—Emergency Evacuation...-candles prior to the activation of the airplane emergency lighting system. The source(s) of the initial... airplane emergency lighting system. (b) The airplane must be in a normal attitude with landing gear...

  17. Empirical Hamiltonians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peggs, S.; Talman, R.

    1986-08-01

    As proton accelerators get larger, and include more magnets, the conventional tracking programs which simulate them run slower. At the same time, in order to more carefully optimize the higher cost of the accelerators, they must return more accurate results, even in the presence of a longer list of realistic effects, such as magnet errors and misalignments. For these reasons conventional tracking programs continue to be computationally bound, despite the continually increasing computing power available. This limitation is especially severe for a class of problems in which some lattice parameter is slowly varying, when a faithful description is only obtained by tracking for an exceedingly large number of turns. Examples are synchrotron oscillations in which the energy varies slowly with a period of, say, hundreds of turns, or magnet ripple or noise on a comparably slow time scale. In these cases one may with to track for hundreds of periods of the slowly varying parameter. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method, still under development, in which element-by-element tracking around one turn is replaced by a single map, which can be processed far faster. Similar programs have already been written in which successive elements are ''concatenated'' with truncation to linear, sextupole, or octupole order, et cetera, using Lie algebraic techniques to preserve symplecticity. The method described here is rather more empirical than this but, in principle, contains information to all orders and is able to handle resonances in a more straightforward fashion

  18. A Study on Thermal Performance of a Novel All-Glass Evacuated Tube Solar Collector Manifold Header with an Inserted Tube

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichun Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel all-glass evacuated tube collector manifold header with an inserted tube is proposed in this paper which makes water in all-glass evacuated solar collector tube be forced circulated to improve the performance of solar collector. And a dynamic numerical model was presented for the novel all-glass evacuated tube collector manifold header water heater system. Also, a test rig was built for model validation and comparison with traditional all-glass evacuated tube collector. The experiment results show that the efficiency of solar water heater with a novel collector manifold header is higher than traditional all-glass evacuated tube collector by about 5% and the heat transfer model of water heater system is valid. Based on the model, the relationship between the average temperature of water tank and inserted tube diameter (water mass flow has been studied. The results show that the optimized diameter of inserted tube is 32 mm for the inner glass with the diameter of 47 mm and the water flow mass should be less than 1.6 Kg/s.

  19. Evacuation and Sheltering of Hospitals in Emergencies: A Review of International Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Bagaria, Jayshree; Heggie, Caroline; Abrahams, Jonathan; Murray, Virginia

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Objective: A scoping exercise to establish how common hospital evacuations are, identify hospital evacuation policies and review case studies to identify trig-gers, processes and challenges involved in the evacuation of hospitals globally. Design: A systematic search of PubMed and disaster agency online resources, search of grey literature and media reports. Results: This study showed that hospitals are vulnerable to both natural and man made disasters and that hospital evacuations d...

  20. Evacuation of Hospitals during Disaster, Establishment of a Field Hospital, and Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Tekin, Erdal; Bayramoglu, Atif; Uzkeser, Mustafa; Cakir, Zeynep

    2017-01-01

    The buildings, working personnel, and patients and their relatives may directly or indirectly be affected by the disasters. Here we will discuss evacuation, establishing a field hospital, communication, the role of the media in disasters, and defending against sabotage. The affected individuals should be evacuated and transferred to secure zones safely and rapidly. How the decision for evacuation should be made and how the evacuation triage should be performed are important issues. Field hosp...

  1. The effects of meal size, body size and temperature on gastric evacuation in pikeperch

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koed, Anders

    2001-01-01

    Prey size had no effect on the gastric evacuation rate of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca. The gastric evacuation was adequately described applying an exponent of 0.5 in the power model. Applying length instead of weight of pikeperch in the gastric evacuation model resulted in a change of estim...

  2. Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

  3. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  4. Automatic sleep staging using empirical mode decomposition, discrete wavelet transform, time-domain, and nonlinear dynamics features of heart rate variability signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Farideh; Setarehdan, Seyed-Kamaledin; Ayala-Moyeda, Jose; Nazeran, Homer

    2013-10-01

    The conventional method for sleep staging is to analyze polysomnograms (PSGs) recorded in a sleep lab. The electroencephalogram (EEG) is one of the most important signals in PSGs but recording and analysis of this signal presents a number of technical challenges, especially at home. Instead, electrocardiograms (ECGs) are much easier to record and may offer an attractive alternative for home sleep monitoring. The heart rate variability (HRV) signal proves suitable for automatic sleep staging. Thirty PSGs from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) database were used. Three feature sets were extracted from 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments: time-domain features, nonlinear-dynamics features and time-frequency features. The latter was achieved by using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) methods. Normalized energies in important frequency bands of HRV signals were computed using time-frequency methods. ANOVA and t-test were used for statistical evaluations. Automatic sleep staging was based on HRV signal features. The ANOVA followed by a post hoc Bonferroni was used for individual feature assessment. Most features were beneficial for sleep staging. A t-test was used to compare the means of extracted features in 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments. The results showed that the extracted features means were statistically similar for a small number of features. A separability measure showed that time-frequency features, especially EMD features, had larger separation than others. There was not a sizable difference in separability of linear features between 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments but separability of nonlinear features, especially EMD features, decreased in 0.5-min HRV segments. HRV signal features were classified by linear discriminant (LD) and quadratic discriminant (QD) methods. Classification results based on features from 5-min segments surpassed those obtained from 0.5-min segments. The best result was obtained from features using 5-min HRV

  5. Burning down the brewery: Establishing and evacuating an ancient imperial colony at Cerro Baúl, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, Michael E.; Nash, Donna J.; Williams, Patrick Ryan; deFrance, Susan D.; Miranda, Ana; Ruales, Mario

    2005-01-01

    Before the Inca reigned, two empires held sway over the central Andes from anno Domini 600 to 1000: the Wari empire to the north ruled much of Peru, and Tiwanaku to the south reigned in Bolivia. Face-to-face contact came when both colonized the Moquegua Valley sierra in southern Peru. The state-sponsored Wari incursion, described here, entailed large-scale agrarian reclamation to sustain the occupation of two hills and the adjacent high mesa of Cerro Baúl. Monumental buildings were erected atop the mesa to serve an embassy-like delegation of nobles and attendant personnel that endured for centuries. Final evacuation of the Baúl enclave was accompanied by elaborate ceremonies with brewing, drinking, feasting, vessel smashing, and building burning. PMID:16293691

  6. Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

    2013-02-01

    Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

  7. Prey exoskeletons influence the course of gastric evacuation in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Couturier, C. S.; Andersen, N. G.; Audet, C.

    2013-01-01

    species, Pandalus borealis, Pandalus montagui and Eualus macilentus, and the crab Chionoecetes opilio, were evacuated from the stomach at different rates. The duration of all stages increased with increasing ash (and carbonate) content of the fresh prey. Thickness, chemical composition and morphology...... of the prey exoskeleton all affected gastric evacuation: duration of initial delay, overall evacuation rate and a decreased evacuation rate at the end of the process. The power exponential function (PEF), with its shape parameter, described the course of evacuation for these prey types well, especially...

  8. A study on evacuation time from lecture halls in Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, W. N. A. W.; Tohir, M. Z. M.

    2018-04-01

    An evacuation situation in any building involves many risks. The geometry of building and high potential of occupant load may affect the efficiency of evacuation process. Although fire safety rules and regulations exist, they remain insufficient to guarantee the safety of all building occupants and do not prevent the dramatic events to be repeated. The main objective of this project is to investigate the relationship between the movement time, travel speed and occupant density during a series of evacuation drills specifically for lecture halls. Generally, this study emphasizes on the movement of crowd within a limited space and includes the aspects of human behaviour. A series of trial evacuations were conducted in selected lecture halls at Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia with the aim of collecting actual data for numerical analysis. The numerical data obtained during trial evacuations were used to determine the evacuation time, crowd movement and behaviour during evacuation process particularly for lecture halls. The evacuation time and number of occupants exiting from each exit were recorded. Video camera was used to record and observe the movement behaviour of occupants during evacuations. EvacuatioNZ was used to simulate the trials evacuations of DK 5 and the results predicted were compared with experimental data. EvacuatioNZ was also used to predict the evacuation time and the flow of occupants exiting from each door for DK 4 and DK 8.

  9. Peculiarities of Intestine Motor-Evacuation Function in Patients with Various Forms of Irritable Bowel Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Nagieva

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available To assess motor and evacuation function of gastrointestinal tract in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS several methods can be used. Our aim was to study colonic motility in patients with different variants of IBS using dynamic scintigraphy. Materials and methods. 107 patients with IBS by Rome III criteria (2006 were enrolled. All patients were divided into 4 groups: I group — IBS with constipation (36/107, 33.6 %, II group — IBS with diarrhea (35/107, 32.7 %, III group — unspecified IBS (22/107, 20.7 %, IV group — mixed IBS (14/107, 13.0 %. Dynamic scintigraphy was done using scintillation gamma-room OFECT‑1 and EBM. Medium activity of radiopharmaceutical was taken at a rate of 10 MBq/kg body weight of the patient. Results. The results showed that in case of the IBS with constipation the passage of radiopharmaceutical decreased (increased radioactivity in the abdomen (> 60 % and asymmetry of the right and left parts of the bowel is 2 5 %, p 0.05. Conclusion. Using dynamic scintigraphy we found expressed slowing of the passage of radiopharmaceutical in IBS patients with constipation (p < 0.05, while in case of IBS with diarrhea the speed of radiopharmaceutical evacuation was increased (p < 0.05. In a case of other variants of IBS no statistically significant changes were detected.

  10. Optimization-based decision support to assist in logistics planning for hospital evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Roger; Bish, Douglas R; Agca, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The evacuation of the hospital is a very complex process and evacuation planning is an important part of a hospital's emergency management plan. There are numerous factors that affect the evacuation plan including the nature of threat, availability of resources and staff the characteristics of the evacuee population, and risk to patients and staff. The safety and health of patients is of fundamental importance, but safely moving patients to alternative care facilities while under threat is a very challenging task. This article describes the logistical issues and complexities involved in planning and execution of hospital evacuations. Furthermore, this article provides examples of how optimization-based decision support tools can help evacuation planners to better plan for complex evacuations by providing real-world solutions to various evacuation scenarios.

  11. Reflection on Lessons Learned: An Analysis of the Adverse Outcomes Observed During the Hurricane Rita Evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Karen

    2018-02-01

    In September 2005, nearly 3.7 million people evacuated the Texas coastline in advance of Hurricane Rita's landfall, making the event the largest emergency evacuation in US history. The Rita evacuation underscored the importance of planning for domestic mass-evacuation events, as the evacuation itself led to over 100 of the at least 119 deaths attributed to the storm. In the days preceding Rita's landfall, several cascading, interrelated circumstances precipitated such adverse outcomes. This article explores the series of events leading up to the evacuation's poor outcomes, the response following Rita to amend evacuation plans, and how Texas successfully implemented these changes during later storms to achieve better outcomes. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:115-120).

  12. Performance analysis of a solar still coupled with evacuated heat pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramod, B. V. N.; Prudhvi Raj, J.; Krishnan, S. S. Hari; Kotebavi, Vinod

    2018-02-01

    In developing countries the need for better quality drinking water is increasing steadily. We can overcome this need by using solar energy for desalination purpose. This process includes fabrication and analysis of a pyramid type solar still coupled with evacuated heat pipes. This experiment using evacuated heat pipes are carried in mainly three modes namely 1) Still alone 2) Using heat pipe with evacuated tubes 3)Using evacuated heat pipe. For this work single basin pyramid type solar still with 1m2 basin area is fabricated. Black stones and Black paint are utilised in solar still to increase evaporation rate of water in basin. The heat pipe’s evaporator section is placed inside evacuated tube and the heat pipe’s condenser section is connected directly to the pyramid type solar still’s lower portion. The output of distillate water from still with evacuated heat pipe is found to be 40% more than the still using only evacuated tubes.

  13. Should evacuation standards be reviewed after a nuclear accident?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nifenecker, Herve

    2011-10-01

    The author comments the current practices of post-accident management of nuclear disasters. He outlines the peculiarities of nuclear evacuations with respect to other disasters. After referring to the use of life expectancy or of the reduction of life expectancy, for example for smokers, he suggests that irradiation could be expressed this way and then provide some intuitive information. He discusses the notion of linear no-threshold relationship which has been introduced by the ICRP after analysis of cancers noticed on survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He addresses the case of Fukushima, the issue of low doses applied to large populations. He discusses the limitations of the linear no-threshold relationship. He discusses possible improvements of evacuation procedures

  14. Conceptual study on the containment design aiming at 'no evacuation'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andou, Kouji; Takii, Taichi; Kikuyama, Tomohiko; Taminami, Tatsuya

    2003-01-01

    The next generation reactors represented in ABWR-II should enhance not only economics but also safety. Especially, the ideal target of 'No Evacuation', that is, no FP (Fission Product) release in severe accidents should be required. This paper provides the conceptual design achieving 'No Evacuation' by using only the passive systems, that are, the passive containment cooling system (PCCS), the large amount of water inside containment, outside pool by utilizing gap between containment and surrounding building, and the natural heat removal from the containment surface to atmosphere. Furthermore, it is also easy to adopt the countermeasure for airplane crash by using a dome shelter and the dispersed layout as an option. At the same time, the amount of the construction material of this concept is competitive comparing with that of the conventional BWR because it is easy to use the steel structure or the steel plate reinforced concrete structure over a wide area. (author)

  15. Theoretical predictions for glass flow into an evacuated canister

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Routt, K.R.; Crow, K.R.

    1983-01-01

    Radioactive waste currently stored at the Savannah River Plant in liquid form is to be immobilized by incorporating it into a borosilicate glass. The glass melter for this process will consist of a refractory lined, steel vessel operated at a glass temperature of 1150 0 C. At the end of a two-year projected melter lifetime, the glass inside the melter is to be drained prior to disposition of the melter vessel. One proposed technique for accomplishing this drainage is by sucking the glass into an evacuated canister. The theoretical bases for design of an evacuated canister for draining a glass melter have been developed and tested. The theoretical equations governing transient and steady-state flow were substantiated with both a silicone glass simulant and molten glass

  16. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  17. A spatiotemporal optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to flood hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaeddine, H.; Serrhini, K.; Maizia, M.

    2015-03-01

    Managing the crisis caused by natural disasters, and especially by floods, requires the development of effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system must take into account certain constraints, including those related to traffic network, accessibility, human resources and material equipment (vehicles, collecting points, etc.). The main objective of this work is to provide assistance to technical services and rescue forces in terms of accessibility by offering itineraries relating to rescue and evacuation of people and property. We consider in this paper the evacuation of an urban area of medium size exposed to the hazard of flood. In case of inundation, most people will be evacuated using their own vehicles. Two evacuation types are addressed in this paper: (1) a preventive evacuation based on a flood forecasting system and (2) an evacuation during the disaster based on flooding scenarios. The two study sites on which the developed evacuation model is applied are the Tours valley (Fr, 37), which is protected by a set of dikes (preventive evacuation), and the Gien valley (Fr, 45), which benefits from a low rate of flooding (evacuation before and during the disaster). Our goal is to construct, for each of these two sites, a chronological evacuation plan, i.e., computing for each individual the departure date and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) according to a priority list established for this purpose. The evacuation plan must avoid the congestion on the road network. Here we present a spatiotemporal optimization model (STOM) dedicated to the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters and more specifically to flood risk.

  18. A spatio-temporel optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaeddine, H.; Serrhini, K.; Maïzia, M.; Néron, E.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of managing the crisis caused by natural disasters, and especially by flood, requires the development of an effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system must take into account certain constraints, including those related to network traffic, accessibility, human resources and material equipment (vehicles, collecting points, etc.). The main objective of this work is to provide assistance to technical services and rescue forces in terms of accessibility by offering itineraries relating to rescue and evacuation of people and property. We consider in this paper the evacuation of an urban area of medium size exposed to the hazard of flood. In case of inundation, most people will be evacuated using their own vehicles. Two evacuation types are addressed in this paper, (1) a preventive evacuation based on a flood forecasting system and (2) an evacuation during the disaster based on flooding scenarios. The two study sites on which the evacuation model developed is applied are the valley of Tours (Fr, 37) which is protected by a set of dikes (preventive evacuation) and the valley of Gien (Fr, 45) which benefits of a low rate of flooding (evacuation before and during the disaster). Our goal is to construct, for each of these two sites, a chronological evacuation plan i.e. computing for each individual the departure date and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) associated according to a priorities list established for this purpose. Evacuation plan must avoid the congestion on the road network. Here we present a Spatio-Temporal Optimization Model (STOM) dedicated to the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters and more specifically to flood risk.

  19. Tsunami Evacuation Exercises: the Case of Heraklion, Crete Isl., Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, I.; Charalampakis, M.; Bocchini, G. M.; Novikova, T.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

    2016-12-01

    Effective tsunami evacuation requires appropriate awareness as regards good shelters selection. Field exercises may improve public awareness. A field exercise was organized in Heraklion, Crete Isl., in 2016. The area is part of the Hellenic Arc which is the most active structure in the Mediterranean. Large earthquakes triggered tsunamis that hit Heraklion in the past, such in AD 1303. After selecting various fault models, simulation of the 1303 tsunami showed important inundation zone in Heraklion. For the exercise needs a team of 30 volunteers was divided in 3 groups of 10 people each. Everyone was equipped with a mobile phone and a GPS device. The 3 groups were gathered in 3 coastal spots Heraklion situated 400 m apart each other. The scenario was that immediately after receiving in their mobile a tsunami warning message they will set on their personal GPS device and start evacuating inland on the best way they believed to do so. In each group, only 5 out of 10 volunteers were notified beforehand that the Eleftherias Square, located inland at distance satisfying evacuation needs in case of repeat of the 1303 tsunami, would be a good shelter to go. Using the Road Graph Plugin of QGIS, we calculated the shortest path distances which found equal to 800, 700 and 680 m. Adopting average velocity of 3 km/h we found that these distances can be covered within 18, 16 and 15 min, respectively. The routes towards the settlement spots as well as the times needed to arrive there by each one of the 30 volunteers were recorded by their personal GPS devices. The processing of the GPS tracks and their comparison with the theoretical routes and times showed good evacuation performance which is encouraging for the next phases of the Heraklion tsunami hazard mitigation program. This is contribution to the EU-FP7 projects ZIP (Zooming In between Plates, grant no: 604713, 2013) and ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant no: 603839, 2013.

  20. Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang-Hua Zhang; Hai-Yue Liu; Rui Zhu; Yang Liu

    2017-01-01

    The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the...

  1. Assessment of Evacuation Protective Action Strategies For Emergency Preparedness Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Joomyung; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Kwangil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    This report which studies about evacuation formation suggests some considerable factors to reduce damage of radiological accidents. Additional details would be required to study in depth and more elements should be considered for updating emergency preparedness. However, this methodology with sensitivity analysis could adapt to specific plant which has total information such as geological data, weather data and population data. In this point of view the evacuation study could be contribute to set up emergency preparedness plan and propose the direction to enhance protective action strategies. In radiological emergency, residents nearby nuclear power plant should perform protective action that is suggested by emergency preparedness plan. The objective of emergency preparedness plan is that damages, such as casualties and environmental damages, due to radioactive accident should be minimized. The recent PAR study includes a number of subjects to improve the quality of protective action strategies. For enhancing protective action strategies, researches that evaluate many factors related with emergency response scenario are essential parts to update emergency preparedness plan. Evacuation is very important response action as protective action strategy.

  2. Assessment of Evacuation Protective Action Strategies For Emergency Preparedness Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Joomyung; Jae, Moosung; Ahn, Kwangil

    2013-01-01

    This report which studies about evacuation formation suggests some considerable factors to reduce damage of radiological accidents. Additional details would be required to study in depth and more elements should be considered for updating emergency preparedness. However, this methodology with sensitivity analysis could adapt to specific plant which has total information such as geological data, weather data and population data. In this point of view the evacuation study could be contribute to set up emergency preparedness plan and propose the direction to enhance protective action strategies. In radiological emergency, residents nearby nuclear power plant should perform protective action that is suggested by emergency preparedness plan. The objective of emergency preparedness plan is that damages, such as casualties and environmental damages, due to radioactive accident should be minimized. The recent PAR study includes a number of subjects to improve the quality of protective action strategies. For enhancing protective action strategies, researches that evaluate many factors related with emergency response scenario are essential parts to update emergency preparedness plan. Evacuation is very important response action as protective action strategy

  3. Case series: Bladder clot evacuation using a prostate morcellation device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doersch, Karen M; Navetta, Andrew F; Bird, Erin T; El Tayeb, Marawan M

    2017-07-01

    We sought to provide a technical update on the use of a prostate morcellator device (PMD) to manage organized blood clots of the bladder following laser prostatectomy. Herein, we describe our experience in using the Wolf Piranha morcellator in managing organized bladder blood clots supplemented with a retrospective chart review of the patients in whom this procedure was performed. Six patients, all male with a mean age of 75 ± 8.9 years, had organized bladder clots following either holmium laser enucleation or photoselective vaporization of the prostate managed with a PMD. Clots were recognized based on hematuria or urinary retention a median of 3.5 days following the aforementioned procedures. Initial management was attempted with more conservative measures, including a three-way Foley catheter, followed by cystoscopy with an Ellik evacuator, or a glass Tommey syringe. Morcellation times were a mean of 10.2 ± 6.15 minutes (range 2-18). This technique was able to manage clots that were an average of 173.3 ± 115.9 cc in size. The procedure was well-tolerated. No patients experienced intraoperative or morcellator-related complications. Benign prostatic hypertrophy frequently requires surgical endoscopic management and can be complicated by hematuria and bladder blood clot formation. When these clots become organized, this can lead to urinary retention and the required management, evacuation, may be difficult. The use of a Wolf Piranha PMD is a safe, well-tolerated, and effective in evacuating organized blood clots of the bladder.

  4. Pedestrians’ behavior in emergency evacuation: Modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Zheng, Jie-Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Shuang; Zhang, Jian-Lin; Wang, Qiu-Zhen; Zhang, Qian

    2016-11-01

    The social force model has been widely used to simulate pedestrian evacuation by analyzing attractive, repulsive, driving, and fluctuating forces among pedestrians. Many researchers have improved its limitations in simulating behaviors of large-scale population. This study modifies the well-accepted social force model by considering the impacts of interaction among companions and further develops a comprehensive model by combining that with a multi-exit utility function. Then numerical simulations of evacuations based on the comprehensive model are implemented in the waiting hall of the Wulin Square Subway Station in Hangzhou, China. The results provide safety thresholds of pedestrian density and panic levels in different operation situations. In spite of the operation situation and the panic level, a larger friend-group size results in lower evacuation efficiency. Our study makes important contributions to building a comprehensive multi-exit social force model and to applying it to actual scenarios, which produces data to facilitate decision making in contingency plans and emergency treatment. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71471163).

  5. Short-time home coming project in evacuation zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuzaki, Hideo

    2011-01-01

    Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) forced neighboring residents to evacuate, and evacuation zone (20 km radius from NPPs) was defined as highly contaminated and designated as no-entry zones. Residents had been obliged to live a refugee life for a longer period than expected. Short-time home coming project was initiated according to their requests. They came to the meeting place called transfer place (20 - 30 km radius from NPPs), wore protective clothing and personal dosimeter with having drinking water and came home in evacuation zone with staffs by bus. Their healthcare management professionals were fully prepared for emergency. After collecting necessary articles at home within two hours, they returned to the meeting place by bus for screening and dressing, and went back to refuge house. If screening data were greater than 13 kcpm using GM counters, partial body decontamination had been conducted by wiping and if greater than 100 kcpm, whole body decontamination was requested but not conducted. Dose rate of residents and staffs was controlled less than 1 mSv, which was alarm level of personal dosimeter. Stable iodine was prepared but actually not used. (T. Tanaka)

  6. Flexible endoscope-assisted evacuation of chronic subdural hematomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Májovský, Martin; Masopust, Václav; Netuka, David; Beneš, Vladimír

    2016-10-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a common neurosurgical condition with an increasing incidence. Standard treatment of CSDHs is surgical evacuation. The objective of this study is to present a modification of standard burr-hole hematoma evacuation using a flexible endoscope and to assess the advantages and risks. Prospectively, 34 consecutive patients diagnosed with CSDH were included in the study. Epidemiological, clinical and radiographical data were collected and reviewed. All patients underwent a burr-hole evacuation of CSDH. A flexible endoscope was inserted and subdural space inspected during surgery. The surgeon was looking specifically for the presence of septations, draining catheter position and acute bleeding. Thirty-four patients underwent 37 endoscope-assisted surgeries. Presenting symptoms were hemiparesis (79%), decreased level of consciousness (18%), gait disturbances (15%), headache (12%), aphasia (6%), cognitive disturbances (6%) and epileptic seizure (3%). Average operative time was 43 min, and the average increase in operative time due to the use of the endoscope was 6 min. Recurrence rate was 8.8%, and clinical outcome was favorable (defined as mRS ≤ 2) in 97% of the cases. To our knowledge, the present cohort of 34 patients is the largest group of patients with CSDH treated using an endoscope. This technique allows decent visualization of the hematoma cavity while retaining the advantages of a minimally invasive approach under a local anesthesia. The main advantages are correct positioning of the catheter under visual control, identification of septations and early detection of cortex or vessel injury during surgery.

  7. Medical Evacuation from Vietnam of an Elderly with Tuberculosis Spondylitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Hua Shieh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite the growth in economy in Vietnam, the infrastructure of dependable medical care is still lacking. Therefore, aeromedical evacuation of patients to other countries for further medical interventions has become an important medical service in the region. We report a case where an elderly man who was aeromedically evacuated from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam to Taipei Medical University–Municipal Wan Fang Hospital in Taipei, Taiwan. The patient developed a sudden onset of quadriplegia because of an epidural abscess at the cervical spine C6–C7. Antituberculous medication was prescribed for suspected tuberculous spondylitis, because his cerebral spinal fluid showed elevated white blood cells with a predominance of lymphocytes, and mildly elevated total protein. However, whole body tumor scan (67Ga mCi and whole body bone scan (99mTc methylene diphosphonate, 25 mCi did not reveal any specific results. Surgical intervention was arranged because of cervical spine instability and the need for a diagnostic biopsy. Adenocarcinoma of the prostate was found incidentally and was treated with bilateral orchiectomy and radiation therapy. This was the first medical evacuation by the Family Medical Practice group in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam to Taiwan.

  8. Low-temperature operating regime of the tokamak evacuating limiter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokar', M.Z.

    1987-01-01

    The conditions for realizing the regime of strong recycling of a cold dense plasma of an evacuating limiter were determined based on a previously proposed model for describing the limiter layer of a tokamak. The scaling for the dependence of the gas pressure in the evacuation system on the average plasma density in the limiter layer was found, and agreed quantitatively with the results of measurements on the Alcator and ISX-B tokamaks. For the tokamak reactor of the INTOR scale the calculations show that the low-temperature operating regime of the evacuating limiter can be realized with a quite low pumping rate. It has the advantages of reduced erosion of the limiter and small fluxes of impurities into the working volume of the reactor. In addition, the relative concentration of the helium ash in the limiter layer does not exceed 2-3%, but the density of the main plasma is comparable to the proposed average density in the reactor. The concept of a stochastic limiter is of interest for lowering the plasma density in the limiter layer and lowering the thermal loads on the limiter

  9. Proactive Traffic Information Control in Emergency Evacuation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengfeng Huang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic demand in emergency evacuation is usually too large to be effectively managed with reactive traffic information control methods. These methods adapt to the road traffic passively by publishing real-time information without consideration of the routing behavior feedback produced by evacuees. Other remedy measures have to be prepared in case of nonrecurring congestion under these methods. To use the network capacity fully to mitigate near-future evacuation traffic congestion, we propose proactive traffic information control (PTIC model. Based on the mechanism between information and routing behavior feedback, this model can change the route choice of evacuees in advance by dissipating strategic traffic information. Generally, the near-future traffic condition is difficult to accurately predict because it is uncertain in evacuation. Assume that the value of traffic information obeys certain distribution within a range, and then real-time traffic information may reflect the most-likely near-future traffic condition. Unlike the real-time information, the proactive traffic information is a selection within the range to achieve a desired level of the road network performance index (total system travel time. In the aspect of the solution algorithm, differential equilibrium decomposed optimization (D-EDO is proposed to compare with other heuristic methods. A field study on a road network around a large stadium is used to validate the PTIC.

  10. An evaluation of sharp safety blood evacuation devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Joanna; Phillips, Peter

    This article describes an evaluation of three sharp safety blood evacuation devices in seven Welsh NHS boards and the Welsh Blood Service. Products consisted of two phlebotomy needles possessing safety shields and one phlebotomy device with wings, tubing and a retractable needle. The device companies provided the devices and appropriate training. Participating healthcare workers used the safety device instead of the conventional device to sample blood during the evaluation period and each type of device was evaluated in random order. Participants filled in a questionnaire for each type of device and then a further questionnaire comparing the two shielded evacuation needles with each other Results showed that responses to all three products were fairly positive, although each device was not liked by everyone who used it. When the two shielded evacuation devices were compared with each other, most users preferred the device with the shield positioned directly above the needle to the device with the shield at the side. However, in laboratory tests, the preferred device produced more fluid splatter than the other shielded device on activation.

  11. Kinetic analysis of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles in the liver of body-temperature-controlled mice using dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging and an empirical mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murase, Kenya; Assanai, Purapan; Takata, Hiroshige; Matsumoto, Nozomi; Saito, Shigeyoshi; Nishiura, Motoko

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a method for analyzing the kinetic behavior of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) in the murine liver under control of body temperature using dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging (DSC-MRI) and an empirical mathematical model (EMM). First, we investigated the influence of body temperature on the kinetic behavior of SPIONs in the liver by controlling body temperature using our temperature-control system. Second, we investigated the kinetic behavior of SPIONs in the liver when mice were injected with various doses of GdCl3, while keeping the body temperature at 36°C. Finally, we investigated it when mice were injected with various doses of zymosan, while keeping the body temperature at 36°C. We also investigated the effect of these substances on the number of Kupffer cells by immunohistochemical analysis using the specific surface antigen of Kupffer cells (CD68). To quantify the kinetic behavior of SPIONs in the liver, we calculated the upper limit of the relative enhancement (A), the rates of early contrast uptake (α) and washout or late contrast uptake (β), the parameter related to the slope of early uptake (q), the area under the curve (AUC), the maximum change of transverse relaxation rate (ΔR2) (ΔR2(max)), the time to ΔR2(max) (Tmax), and ΔR2 at the last time point (ΔR2(last)) from the time courses of ΔR2 using the EMM. The β and Tmax values significantly decreased and increased, respectively, with decreasing body temperature, suggesting that the phagocytic activity of Kupffer cells is significantly affected by body temperature. The AUC, ΔR2(max), and ΔR2(last) values decreased significantly with increasing dose of GdCl3, which was consistent with the change in the number of CD68-positive cells. They increased with increasing dose of zymosan, which was also consistent with the change in the number of CD68-positive cells. These results suggest that AUC, ΔR2(max), and ΔR2

  12. The Safety and Feasibility of Image-Guided BrainPath-Mediated Transsulcul Hematoma Evacuation: A Multicenter Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labib, Mohamed A; Shah, Mitesh; Kassam, Amin B; Young, Ronald; Zucker, Lloyd; Maioriello, Anthony; Britz, Gavin; Agbi, Charles; Day, J D; Gallia, Gary; Kerr, Robert; Pradilla, Gustavo; Rovin, Richard; Kulwin, Charles; Bailes, Julian

    2017-04-01

    Subcortical injury resulting from conventional surgical management of intracranial hemorrhage may counteract the potential benefits of hematoma evacuation. To evaluate the safety and potential benefits of a novel, minimally invasive approach for clot evacuation in a multicenter study. The integrated approach incorporates 5 competencies: (1) image interpretation and trajectory planning, (2) dynamic navigation, (3) atraumatic access system (BrainPath, NICO Corp, Indianapolis, Indiana), (4) extracorporeal optics, and (5) automated atraumatic resection. Twelve neurosurgeons from 11 centers were trained to use this approach through a continuing medical education-accredited course. Demographical, clinical, and radiological data of patients treated over 2 years were analyzed retrospectively. Thirty-nine consecutive patients were identified. The median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score at presentation was 10 (range, 5-15). The thalamus/basal ganglion regions were involved in 46% of the cases. The median hematoma volume and depth were 36 mL (interquartile range [IQR], 27-65 mL) and 1.4 cm (IQR, 0.3-2.9 cm), respectively. The median time from ictus to surgery was 24.5 hours (IQR, 16-66 hours). The degree of hematoma evacuation was ≥90%, 75% to 89%, and 50% to 74% in 72%, 23%, and 5.0% of the patients, respectively. The median GCS score at discharge was 14 (range, 8-15). The improvement in GCS score was statistically significant ( P < .001). Modified Rankin Scale data were available for 35 patients. Fifty-two percent of those patients had a modified Rankin Scale score of ≤2. There were no mortalities. The approach was safely performed in all patients with a relatively high rate of clot evacuation and functional independence. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  13. Dynamic Escape Routes for Naval Ships

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Villalonga, Francisco J

    2005-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of optimal evacuation of a naval ship. We propose the use of a dynamic escape-route system which employs a signaling system to adapt the emergency egress process to the instigating contingency...

  14. Why Don't People Evacuate When Nature Threatens?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.; Orlove, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Why do so many Southern Californians fail to evacuate when warned that winter storms have critically raised the risk of a debris flow in their neighborhoods? Have they perhaps not seen or heeded news coverage of past debris flow events? Are they unaware that recent fires made the hillsides above them more prone to gravity-driven processes? Do they think they can wait to start their cars until they can actually see the flow coming? Or have they merely experienced too many "false alarms" in past years, and no longer put much stock in the judgment of public officials or the ability of scientists to judge debris flow risk? In preparation for a simulation study that will place decision makers in a virtual house in the California foothills during a winter storm event, we explore the reasons that people do and do not evacuate in the face of potential debris flows. Working in collaboration with the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project for Southern California, we are surveying hundreds of local residents, from debris-flow prone areas and from elsewhere in the state, to establish their baseline knowledge (and misconceptions) about, attitudes toward, information use regarding, and experience with debris flows. Initial interviews with residents of recently hit neighborhoods give qualitative data suggesting that false-alarm effects and underestimation of risk are driving factors; these surveys will provide quantitative evidence to extend those findings. We will discuss the results of this survey in the context of a comprehensive body of psychology research that seeks to explain why people frequently appear to ignore or discount hazard warnings: neglecting to insure their homes and crops (Kunreuther, 1984), failing to evacuate in the face of storms and fires (Baker, 1991; Packham, 1995), and (barring a recent, vivid event) showing little support for measures that would manage or mitigate future hazards (Kunreuther, 2006a, 2006b; Weber, 2006). We will also consider the

  15. Optical trapping and control of nanoparticles inside evacuated hollow core photonic crystal fibers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grass, David, E-mail: david.grass@univie.ac.at; Fesel, Julian; Hofer, Sebastian G.; Kiesel, Nikolai; Aspelmeyer, Markus, E-mail: markus.aspelmeyer@univie.ac.at [Vienna Center for Quantum Science and Technology (VCQ), Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna, A-1090 Vienna (Austria)

    2016-05-30

    We demonstrate an optical conveyor belt for levitated nanoparticles over several centimeters inside both air-filled and evacuated hollow-core photonic crystal fibers (HCPCF). Detection of the transmitted light field allows three-dimensional read-out of the particle center-of-mass motion. An additional laser enables axial radiation pressure based feedback cooling over the full fiber length. We show that the particle dynamics is a sensitive local probe for characterizing the optical intensity profile inside the fiber as well as the pressure distribution along the fiber axis. In contrast to some theoretical predictions, we find a linear pressure dependence inside the HCPCF, extending over three orders of magnitude from 0.2 mbar to 100 mbar. A targeted application is the controlled delivery of nanoparticles from ambient pressure into medium vacuum.

  16. Prototype Tsunami Evacuation Park in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, B. E.; Cedillos, V.; Deierlein, G.; Di Mauro, M.; Kornberg, K.

    2012-12-01

    Padang, Indonesia, a city of some 900,000 people, half of whom live close to the coast and within a five-meter elevation above sea level, has one of the highest tsunami risks in the world due to its close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, flat terrain and dense population. There is a high probability that a tsunami will strike the shores of Padang, flooding half of the area of the city, within the next 30 years. If that tsunami occurred today, it is estimated that several hundred thousand people would die, as they could not reach safe ground in the ~30 minute interval between the earthquake's occurrence and the tsunami's arrival. Padang's needs have been amply demonstrated: after earthquakes in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012, citizens, thinking that those earthquakes might cause a tsunami, tried to evacuate in cars and motorbikes, which created traffic jams, and most could not reach safe ground in 30 minutes. Since 2008, GeoHazards International (GHI) and Stanford University have studied a range of options for improving this situation, including ways to accelerate evacuation to high ground with pedestrian bridges and widened roads, and means of "vertical" evacuation in multi-story buildings, mosques, pedestrian overpasses, and Tsunami Evacuation Parks (TEPs), which are man-made hills with recreation facilities on top. TEPs proved most practical and cost-effective for Padang, given the available budget, technology and time. The Earth Observatory Singapore (EOS) developed an agent-based model that simulates pedestrian and vehicular evacuation to assess tsunami risk and risk reduction interventions in Southeast Asia. EOS applied this model to analyze the effectiveness in Padang of TEPs over other tsunami risk management approaches in terms of evacuation times and the number of people saved. The model shows that only ~24,000 people (20% of the total population) in the northern part of Padang can reach safe ground within 30 minutes, if people evacuate using cars and

  17. Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

  18. Rapid health assessments of evacuation centres in areas affected by Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Alma Ramos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Typhoon Haiyan caused thousands of deaths and catastrophic destruction, leaving many homeless in Region 8 of the Philippines. A team from the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program conducted a rapid health assessment survey of evacuation centres severely affected by Haiyan. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted whereby a convenience sample of evacuation centres were assessed on the number of toilets per evacuee, sanitation, drinking-water, food supply source and medical services. Results: Of the 20 evacuation centres assessed, none had a designated manager. Most were located in schools (70% with the estimated number of evacuees ranging from 15 to 5000 per centre. Only four (20% met the World Health Organization standard for number of toilets per evacuee; none of the large evacuation centres had even half the recommended number of toilets. All of the evacuation centres had available drinking-water. None of the evacuation centres had garbage collection, vector control activities or standby medical teams. Fourteen (70% evacuation centres had onsite vaccination activities for measles, tetanus and polio virus. Many evacuation centres were overcrowded. Conclusion: Evacuation centres are needed in almost every disaster. They should be safely located and equipped with the required amenities. In disaster-prone areas such as the Philippines, schools and community centres should not be designated as evacuation centres unless they are equipped with adequate sanitation services.

  19. Empirical microeconomics action functionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Tanputraman, Winson

    2015-06-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is modeled by an action functional-and the focus of this paper is to empirically determine the action functionals for different commodities. The correlation functions of the model are defined using a Feynman path integral. The model is calibrated using the unequal time correlation of the market commodity prices as well as their cubic and quartic moments using a perturbation expansion. The consistency of the perturbation expansion is verified by a numerical evaluation of the path integral. Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are studied and their market behavior is described by the model to an accuracy of over 90% using only six parameters. The paper empirically establishes the existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (2013).

  20. Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

    2010-01-01

    Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

  1. Long term mental health outcomes of Finnish children evacuated to Swedish families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Betancourt, Theresa S; Gilman, Stephen E

    2015-01-05

    To compare the risks of admission to hospital for any type of psychiatric disorder and for four specific psychiatric disorders among adults who as children were evacuated to Swedish foster families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings, and to evaluate whether these risks differ between the sexes. Cohort study. National child evacuation scheme in Finland during the second world war. Children born in Finland between 1933 and 1944 who were later included in a 10% sample of the 1950 Finnish census ascertained in 1997 (n = 45,463; women: n = 22,021; men: n = 23,442). Evacuees in the sample were identified from war time government records. Adults admitted to hospital for psychiatric disorders recorded between 1971 and 2011 in the Finnish hospital discharge register. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between evacuation to temporary foster care in Sweden during the second world war and admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder between ages 38 and 78 years. Fixed effects methods were employed to control for all unobserved social and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Among men and women combined, the risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder did not differ between Finnish adults evacuated to Swedish foster families and their non-evacuated siblings (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.26). Evidence suggested a lower risk of admission for any mental disorder (0.67, 0.44 to 1.03) among evacuated men, whereas for women there was no association between evacuation and the overall risk of admission for a psychiatric disorder (1.21, 0.80 to 1.83). When admissions for individual psychiatric disorders were analyzed, evacuated girls were significantly more likely than their non-evacuated sisters to be admitted to hospital for a mood disorder as an adult (2.19, 1.10 to 4.33). The Finnish evacuation policy was not associated with an increased overall risk of admission to hospital

  2. The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Borri, Dino

    2014-01-01

    Both experimental and simulation data on fire evacuation are influenced by a component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the unexplained variance in human behaviour, namely behavioural uncertainty (BU). Evacuation model validation studies should include the study of this type of uncertainty during the comparison of experiments and simulation results. An evacuation model validation procedure is introduced in this paper to study the impact of BU. This methodology is presented through a case study for the comparison between repeated experimental data and simulation results produced by FDS+Evac, an evacuation model for the simulation of human behaviour in fire, which makes use of distribution laws. - Highlights: • Validation of evacuation models is investigated. • Quantitative evaluation of behavioural uncertainty is performed. • A validation procedure is presented through an evacuation case study

  3. Incorporating emergency evacuation planning, through human reliability analysis, in the risk management of industrial installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A. Luquetti; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: luquetti@ien.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    An industrial installation presents many risks in the form of the process hazards, such as fire, explosion, gas and radiation release. In these situations, workers may need to evacuate from the work environment as soon as possible. In this case, the emergency evacuation planning is a key element that involves an iterative process to identify the best evacuation routes and to estimate the time required to evacuate the area at risk. The mean aspects for a successful emergency evacuation are influenced by the type of human error and the severity of the initiator event. The aim of this paper is to present a methodological framework for the identification of the performance shaping factors and prediction of human error probabilities of the responsible by the emergency evacuation of the workers in an industrial installation, providing a proactive approach for the allocation of the human factors in the risk assessment of the industrial installation. (author)

  4. The Group Evacuation Behavior Based on Fire Effect in the Complicated Three-Dimensional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to effectively depict the group evacuation behavior in the complicated three-dimensional space, a novel pedestrian flow model is proposed with three-dimensional cellular automata. In this model the calculation methods of floor field and fire gain are elaborated at first, and the transition gain of target position at the next moment is defined. Then, in consideration of pedestrian intimacy and velocity change, the group evacuation strategy and evolution rules are given. Finally, the experiments were conducted with the simulation platform to study the relationships of evacuation time, pedestrian density, average system velocity, and smoke spreading velocity. The results had shown that large-scale group evacuation should be avoided, and in case of large pedestrian density, the shortest route of evacuation strategy would extend system evacuation time.

  5. Enhancing Evacuation Plans with a Situation Awareness System Based on End-User Knowledge Provision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Morales

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent disasters have shown that having clearly defined preventive procedures and decisions is a critical component that minimizes evacuation hazards and ensures a rapid and successful evolution of evacuation plans. In this context, we present our Situation-Aware System for enhancing Evacuation Plans (SASEP system, which allows creating end-user business rules that technically support the specific events, conditions and actions related to evacuation plans. An experimental validation was carried out where 32 people faced a simulated emergency situation, 16 of them using SASEP and the other 16 using a legacy system based on static signs. From the results obtained, we compare both techniques and discuss in which situations SASEP offers a better evacuation route option, confirming that it is highly valuable when there is a threat in the evacuation route. In addition, a study about user satisfaction using both systems is presented showing in which cases the systems are assessed as satisfactory, relevant and not frustrating.

  6. Evacuation apparatus with cryogenic pump and trap assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahl, G.

    1980-01-01

    An evacuation apparatus comprising a vessel defining a vacuum chamber therein, vacuumizing means communicating with an opening to said vacuum chamber for selectively drawing a vacuum therein comprising cryogenic pump means disposed closely adjacent to said opening and defined by substantial cryogenically cooled trap surfaces for freezing-out water vapor from air evacuated from said vacuum chamber, said opening being common to said vacuum chamber and to said cryogenic pump means, valve means for selectively opening or closing the opening to said vacuum chamber and movable from a first position within said cryogenic pump means closing said opening to a second position within said cryogenic pump means directly exposing said vacuum chamber to said cryogenic pump means, through said opening, baffle means disposed closely adjacent to the opening to said vacuum chamber for providing substantial open communication to said vacuum chamber and for substantially preventing ingress of contaminants into said vacuum chamber, said baffle means being positioned to provide an optically dense view of said opening when viewed from a downstream side of said baffle means, and a plurality of longitudinally spaced and cryogenically cooled fins mounted in nested relationship within said baffle means and disposed in out-of-contact relationship therewith, said fins being positioned to provide an optically dense view of the downstream side of said baffle means when viewed from said openings. The cryogenic pump is adapted for use in an evacuation apparatus comprising a housing defining an opening to a vacuum chamber, a plurality of metallic plates defining a first chamber therein communicating with said vacuum chamber through said opening and further defining a second chamber at least partially surrounding said first chamber and adapted to be at least partially filled with a cryogenic liqui.d

  7. CT-guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive intracerebral hematomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondo, Hideki

    1983-01-01

    Computerized tomography (CT) is now effective not only for definite diagnosis and location of intracerebral hematomas but also for coordination of the center of a hematoma. CT-guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive intracerebral hematoma was performed in 51 cases: 34 of basal ganglionic hematoma with or without ventricular perforation, 11 of subcortical hematoma, 3 of thalamic hematoma and 3 of cerebellar hematoma. Three dimensional CT images or biplane CT images were taken to determine the coordinates of the target point, which was the center of the hematoma. Then, a silicon tube (O.D. 3.5 phi, I.D. 2.1 phi) was inserted into the center of the hematoma through a burr-hole under local anesthesia, and the liquid or solid hematoma was aspirated as completely as possible with a syringe. Urokinase (6,000 I.U./5 ml saline) was administered through this silicon tube every 6 or 12 hours for several days until the hematoma had drained out competely. The silicon tube was taken out when repeated CT scanning revealed no hematoma. The results of clinical follow-ups indicated that this procedure is as good as, or rather better than conventional microsurgery with evacuation of hematoma under direct vision. Moreover this CT-guided stereotactic approach for evacuation of the hematoma has the following advantages: 1) the procedure is simple and safe, 2) operation can be performed under local anesthesia, and 3) the hematoma is drained out completely with the aid of urokinase. This surgery seems indicated as an emergency treatment for high-age or high risk patients and also as a routine surgery for intracerebral hematomas in patients showing no herination signs. (author)

  8. The peculiarities of formation of circulatory system pathology of evacuated adult population exposed to ionizing radiation on thyroid gland after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapustinskaia O.A.

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research - analysis of the structure and dynamics of the morbidity among eva¬cuated population, the peculiarities of pathogenesis of the most widespread forms of circulatory system (CS pathology in the remote period after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Materials and methods. Three groups of persons evacuated from Chernobyl zone of alienation were researched: persons aged 10-17 (6517 persons, 18-39 (496 persons, 40-60 (458 persons. The data on the individual radiation doses which affected thyroid gland were selected at the State Register of Ukraine on persons affected by the Chernobyl disaster. Morbidity rate was estimated per 103 man-year for 5-years periods of monitoring. The main results: Time from the moment of Chernobyl accident affected the formation of morbidity structure of evacuated population. It was fixed two peaks of morbidity incidence - initial and in 12 years. The most essential changes in CS morbidity of evacuated population were fixed 26 years later mainly in cere¬brovascular diseases. The coronary artery disease takes the first place in the morbidity structure. Significant dif¬ferences were detected at age-specific aspect. The evacuated adult population aged 18-39 years was the most vulnerable for the development of CS diseases. Adverse health effects confirmed the necessity of further research of CS morbidity with the differentiation of doses affected thyroid gland.

  9. Evacuation of a mental health center during a forest fire in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreinin, Anatoly; Shakera, Tatiana; Sheinkman, Ayala; Levi, Tamar; Tal, Vered; Polakiewicz, Jacob

    2014-08-01

    Tirat Carmel Mental Health Center was successfully evacuated in December 2010 during a ravaging forest fire in the nearby Carmel Mountains. A total of 228 patients were successfully evacuated from the center within 45 minutes. No fatalities or injuries associated with the evacuation occurred. We believe that the efficient functioning of the administrative and medical staff provides a replicable model that can contribute to the level of awareness and readiness of hospital staff members for natural and manmade disasters.

  10. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  11. Endoscopic hematoma evacuation in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Hsin Wang

    2015-02-01

    Conclusion: With the introduction of the minimally invasive techniques and the evolution of the neuroendoscope and hemostatic agents, the median operative time and blood loss have been significantly decreased. Although the hematoma evacuation rates were similar between the endoscope (90% and craniotomy (85% groups, the median intensive care unit stay was decreased from 11 days to 6 days due to reduced surgical invasiveness. This represents an important advancement in treating spontaneous supratentorial ICH, and provides a measured preview of the promising results that can be expected in the future.

  12. Welfare and evacuation sub-plan: APTCARE - Lucas Heights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-11-01

    This Sub-plan has been prepared as a contingency plan to the APTCARE document - A plan to cope with an accident at the Australian Atomic Energy Commission's Research Establishment at Lucas Heights. It details procedures to be followed for the evacuation and welfare of citizens residing in areas outside the Commission's establishment in the event that their health or safety is threatened by reason of an accident at the nuclear reactor facility which could have off-site implications. Additionally, it lists roles and tasking assignments of various counter-disaster response and support agencies in such an occurrence

  13. Two Fixed, Evacuated, Glass, Solar Collectors Using Nonimaging Concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, John D.; Winston, Roland; O'Gallagher, Joseph; Ford, Gary

    1984-01-01

    Two fixed, evacuated, glass solar thermal collectors have been designed. The incorporation of nonimaging concentration, selective absorption and vacuum insulation into their design is essential for obtaining high efficiency through low heat loss, while operating at high temperatures. Nonimaging, approximately ideal concentration with wide acceptance angle permits solar radiation collection without tracking the sun, and insures collection of much of the diffuse radiation. It also minimizes the area of the absorbing surface, thereby reducing the radiation heat loss. Functional integration, where different parts of these two collectors serve more than one function, is also important in achieving high efficiency, and it reduces cost.

  14. Analysis of evacuation procedure after the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murayama, T.; Iizuka, F.; El-Asaad, H. [Tokyo Inst. of Tech., Tokyo (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    After the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 struck the coast of Eastern Japan, evacuation procedures were undermined due to the unexpected magnitude and severity of the disaster. Also, communications between local and national government were weakened, leading to dismemberment between society and government. Consequently this left the affected people without sufficient information or updates regarding evacuation procedures. This paper will concentrate on evacuation procedures led by locating residents with the help of media outlets (local newspapers and news reports). Analyzing movements of evacuees will help improve the evacuation method both for local residents and government bodies. (author)

  15. Experiment and modeling of paired effect on evacuation from a three-dimensional space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jun, Hu [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Huijun, Sun, E-mail: hjsun1@bjtu.edu.cn [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Juan, Wei [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Xiaodan, Chen [College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Lei, You [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Musong, Gu [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China)

    2014-10-24

    A novel three-dimensional cellular automata evacuation model was proposed based on stairs factor for paired effect and variety velocities in pedestrian evacuation. In the model pedestrians' moving probability of target position at the next moment was defined based on distance profit and repulsive force profit, and evacuation strategy was elaborated in detail through analyzing variety velocities and repulsive phenomenon in moving process. At last, experiments with the simulation platform were conducted to study the relationships of evacuation time, average velocity and pedestrian velocity. The results showed that when the ratio of single pedestrian was higher in the system, the shortest route strategy was good for improving evacuation efficiency; in turn, if ratio of paired pedestrians was higher, it is good for improving evacuation efficiency to adopt strategy that avoided conflicts, and priority should be given to scattered evacuation. - Highlights: • A novel three-dimensional evacuation model was presented with stair factor. • The paired effect and variety velocities were considered in evacuation model. • The cellular automata model is improved by repulsive force.

  16. Spatial memory enhances the evacuation efficiency of virtual pedestrians under poor visibility condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng; Kwok Kit Yuen, Richard

    2018-03-01

    Spatial memory is a critical navigation support tool for disoriented evacuees during evacuation under adverse environmental conditions such as dark or smoky conditions. Owing to the complexity of memory, it is challenging to understand the effect of spatial memory on pedestrian evacuation quantitatively. In this study, we propose a simple method to quantitatively represent the evacueeʼs spatial memory about the emergency exit, model the evacuation of pedestrians under the guidance of the spatial memory, and investigate the effect of the evacueeʼs spatial memory on the evacuation from theoretical and physical perspectives. The result shows that (i) a good memory can significantly assist the evacuation of pedestrians under poor visibility conditions, and the evacuation can always succeed when the degree of the memory exceeds a threshold (\\varphi > 0.5); (ii) the effect of memory is superior to that of “follow-the-crowd” under the same environmental conditions; (iii) in the case of multiple exits, the difference in the degree of the memory between evacuees has a significant effect (the greater the difference, the faster the evacuation) for the evacuation under poor visibility conditions. Our study provides a new quantitative insight into the effect of spatial memory on crowd evacuation under poor visibility conditions. Project supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Grant No. 11203615).

  17. Analysis of evacuation procedure after the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murayama, T.; Iizuka, F.; El-Asaad, H.

    2014-01-01

    After the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 struck the coast of Eastern Japan, evacuation procedures were undermined due to the unexpected magnitude and severity of the disaster. Also, communications between local and national government were weakened, leading to dismemberment between society and government. Consequently this left the affected people without sufficient information or updates regarding evacuation procedures. This paper will concentrate on evacuation procedures led by locating residents with the help of media outlets (local newspapers and news reports). Analyzing movements of evacuees will help improve the evacuation method both for local residents and government bodies. (author)

  18. Advanced evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic during an accident in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    Evacuation of people located inside the enclosed area of an LNG terminal is a complex problem, especially considering that accidents involving LNG are potentially very hazardous. In order to create an evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic, extensive influence must be generated from safety analyses. A very important moment in the optimal functioning of an evacuation model is the creation of a database which incorporates all input indicators. The output result is the creation of a safety evacuation route which is active at the moment of the accident. (Author)

  19. Experiment and modeling of paired effect on evacuation from a three-dimensional space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jun, Hu; Huijun, Sun; Juan, Wei; Xiaodan, Chen; Lei, You; Musong, Gu

    2014-01-01

    A novel three-dimensional cellular automata evacuation model was proposed based on stairs factor for paired effect and variety velocities in pedestrian evacuation. In the model pedestrians' moving probability of target position at the next moment was defined based on distance profit and repulsive force profit, and evacuation strategy was elaborated in detail through analyzing variety velocities and repulsive phenomenon in moving process. At last, experiments with the simulation platform were conducted to study the relationships of evacuation time, average velocity and pedestrian velocity. The results showed that when the ratio of single pedestrian was higher in the system, the shortest route strategy was good for improving evacuation efficiency; in turn, if ratio of paired pedestrians was higher, it is good for improving evacuation efficiency to adopt strategy that avoided conflicts, and priority should be given to scattered evacuation. - Highlights: • A novel three-dimensional evacuation model was presented with stair factor. • The paired effect and variety velocities were considered in evacuation model. • The cellular automata model is improved by repulsive force

  20. Evaluation of subdural space after evacuation of chronic subdural hematoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odake, Genya

    1988-09-01

    Subdural low density lesions of two cases were reexplored after evacuation of chronic subdural hematoma and thickening of the outer membrane was found in both cases. 1st case was a 88 year-old male, who had shown at least 7 months history of chronic subdural fluid accumulation. Reexploration of residual subdural low density space on CT after 14 days following the evacuation disclosed thickening of the outer membrane and none of fluid. 2nd case was a 71 year-old male who had a history of head injury 2 months before. Reexploration of residual low density lesion 14 days later disclosed a similar thickening of the outer membrane without fluid accumulation. The postoperative low density area in both cases was suspected to be a residual hematoma before reexploratin, but only thickening of the outer membrane of the hematoma was found. The outer membrane of 2nd case was histologically composed of layers of matured granulation, contiguous to the dura and a layer of immature granulation with microhemorrhage, facing the cavity. Thickening of the outer membrane seems to play an important role not only to develope, but to resolve the chronic subdural hematoma. It is neccessary to evaluate other factors than low density space per se to eliminate a needless reexploration.

  1. Fire and evacuation drills make the CERN safety plans work

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2013-01-01

    Regular drills are a way of making sure that we are ready and able to react in the event of a fire or other adverse event. They are also a demanding test of all the technical and organisational measures in place to allow the quick and safe evacuation of buildings. Recently, large-scale drills took place in Building 40 and at Point 5 underground.   Group photo at Point 5, after the common evacuation drill. The ability to react to unexpected, adverse events relies in particular on training. This is why CERN’s safety teams organise regular drills. One of the most recent exercises took place on 26 March in Building 40. “Building 40 is a modern building fully equipped against fire, with two emergency exits in the central atrium. We also have 29 emergency guides distributed on each floor to guide people out of their offices,” says Kate Richardson, Territorial Safety Officer of the building. “The drills are very useful for testing the building's insta...

  2. Evaluation of subdural space after evacuation of chronic subdural hematoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odake, Genya

    1988-01-01

    Subdural low density lesions of two cases were reexplored after evacuation of chronic subdural hematoma and thickening of the outer membrane was found in both cases. 1st case was a 88 year-old male, who had shown at least 7 months history of chronic subdural fluid accumulation. Reexploration of residual subdural low density space on CT after 14 days following the evacuation disclosed thickening of the outer membrane and none of fluid. 2nd case was a 71 year-old male who had a history of head injury 2 months before. Reexploration of residual low density lesion 14 days later disclosed a similar thickening of the outer membrane without fluid accumulation. The postoperative low density area in both cases was suspected to be a residual hematoma before reexploratin, but only thickening of the outer membrane of the hematoma was found. The outer membrane of 2nd case was histologically composed of layers of matured granulation, contiguous to the dura and a layer of immature granulation with microhemorrhage, facing the cavity. Thickening of the outer membrane seems to play an important role not only to develope, but to resolve the chronic subdural hematoma. It is neccessary to evaluate other factors than low density space per se to eliminate a needless reexploration. (author)

  3. Study on estimation of evacuation distances for nuclear emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Sohei; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2005-09-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) have conducted the analytical studies on the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), the severe accidents, and the optimization of protective actions. Based on the results of these studies, JAERI are investigating the method for taking urgent protective actions more reasonably. If an accident occurs in a nuclear power plant (NPP), early protective actions are carried out. To implement these actions more effectively, emergency preparedness and emergency planning are important, and especially prompt evacuation is expected to reduce a large amount of radiation exposures. To examine the effect of early protective measures by using a PSA method, estimation of the parameter uncertainty related in the time for early protective actions is needed. For this purpose, we have developed an analytical method for urgent protective actions using geographic information, and estimated the movement distance based on gathering points arrangement an population distribution. For this analysis, we used the gathering point data shown on each regional plans for disaster prevention which will be used in actual emergency situation and targeted the population inside Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). By applying this method for the existing sixteen commercial NPP sites, we estimated the average value and distribution of the movement distance for each sites. This report provides a brief description of the method for estimating the movement distance, input data for this analysis, and the result. Moreover, the problem on the method of evacuation distance analysis and usefulness of this method for emergency planning were discussed. (author)

  4. Electrostatic double layers and a plasma evacuation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raadu, M.A.; Carlqvist, P.

    1979-12-01

    An evacuation process due to the growth of current driven instabilities in a plasma is discussed. The process, which leads to localized extreme density reductions, is related to the formation of electrostatic double layers. The initial linear phase is treated using the superposition of unstable plasma waves. In the long wave length, non-dispersive limit a density dip, which is initially present as a small disturbance, grows rapidly and remains localized in the plasma. The process works for a variety of plasma conditions provided a certain current density is exceeded. For a particular choice of plasma parameters the non-linear development is followed, by solving the coupled Vlasov-Poisson equations by finite difference methods. The evacuation process is found to work even more effectively in the non-linear phase and leads to an extreme density reduction within the dip. It is suggested that the growth of such structures produces weak points within the plasma that can lead to the formation of double layers. (Auth.)

  5. Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

    2014-05-01

    Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as

  6. An Evaluation of Infrastructure for Tsunami Evacuation in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cedillos, V.; Canney, N.; Deierlein, G.; Diposaptono, S.; Geist, E. L.; Henderson, S.; Ismail, F.; Jachowski, N.; McAdoo, B. G.; Muhari, A.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Sieh, K. E.; Toth, J.; Tucker, B. E.; Wood, K.

    2009-12-01

    Padang has one of the world’s highest tsunami risks due to its high hazard, vulnerable terrain and population density. The current strategy to prepare for tsunamis in Padang is focused on developing early warning systems, planning evacuation routes, conducting evacuation drills, and raising local awareness. Although these are all necessary, they are insufficient. Padang’s proximity to the Sunda Trench and flat terrain make reaching safe ground impossible for much of the population. The natural warning in Padang - a strong earthquake that lasts over a minute - will be the first indicator of a potential tsunami. People will have about 30 minutes after the earthquake to reach safe ground. It is estimated that roughly 50,000 people in Padang will be unable to evacuate in that time. Given these conditions, other means to prepare for the expected tsunami must be developed. With this motivation, GeoHazards International and Stanford University’s Chapter of Engineers for a Sustainable World partnered with Indonesian organizations - Andalas University and Tsunami Alert Community in Padang, Laboratory for Earth Hazards, and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries - in an effort to evaluate the need for and feasibility of tsunami evacuation infrastructure in Padang. Tsunami evacuation infrastructure can include earthquake-resistant bridges and evacuation structures that rise above the maximum tsunami water level, and can withstand the expected earthquake and tsunami forces. The choices for evacuation structures vary widely - new and existing buildings, evacuation towers, soil berms, elevated highways and pedestrian overpasses. This interdisciplinary project conducted a course at Stanford University, undertook several field investigations, and concluded that: (1) tsunami evacuation structures and bridges are essential to protect the people in Padang, (2) there is a need for a more thorough engineering-based evaluation than conducted to-date of the suitability of

  7. External factors impacting hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: the role of situational awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

    2013-06-01

    The 2005 Gulf Coast hurricane season was one of the most costly and deadly in US history. Hurricane Rita stressed hospitals and led to multiple, simultaneous evacuations. This study systematically identified community factors associated with patient movement out of seven hospitals evacuated during Hurricane Rita. This study represents the second of two systematic, observational, and retrospective investigations of seven acute care hospitals that reported off-site evacuations due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included decision makers that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). Investigators applied a standardized interview process designed to assess evacuation factors related to external situational awareness of community activities during facility evacuation due to hurricanes. The measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions within six sections of the survey instrument. Investigators identified two factors that significantly impacted hospital IMT decision making: (1) incident characteristics affecting a facility's internal resources and challenges; and (2) incident characteristics affecting a facility's external evacuation activities. This article summarizes the latter and reports the following critical decision making points: (1) Emergency Operations Plans (EOP) were activated an average of 85 hours (3 days, 13 hours) prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall; (2) the decision to evacuate the hospital was made an average of 30 hours (1 day, 6 hours) from activation of the EOP; and (3) the implementation of the evacuation process took an average of 22 hours. Coordination of patient evacuations was most complicated by transportation deficits (the most significant of the 11 identified problem areas) and a lack of situational awareness of community response activities. All evacuation activities and subsequent evacuation times were negatively impacted by an overall lack of understanding on the part of hospital staff and the IMT regarding how to

  8. Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.

    2005-01-01

    The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

  9. A new way to estimate the evacuation time for people involved in a building fire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

    2004-01-01

    A survey about evacuation models is given. The current available evacuation models based on hand calculations are tested during the survey. The objectives have been to analyze the existing hand calculating methods and thereby validate or may be, disqualify a model. The survey is based on comparis...

  10. Way finding during fire evacuation; an analysis of unannounced fire drills

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kobes, M.; Helsloot, I.; Vries, de B.; Post, J.G.; Oberije, N.; Groenewegen, K.

    2010-01-01

    Findings in earlier studies on fire evacuation and way finding suggest that building features have influence on evacuation behaviour. For example, way finding is believed to be strongly dependent on the lay-out of the building and seems to be hardly dependent on (escape) route signs. Though some

  11. Game-Based Evacuation Drill Using Augmented Reality and Head-Mounted Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Junya; Mitsuhara, Hiroyuki; Shishibori, Masami

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Evacuation drills should be more realistic and interactive. Focusing on situational and audio-visual realities and scenario-based interactivity, the authors have developed a game-based evacuation drill (GBED) system that presents augmented reality (AR) materials on tablet computers. The paper's current research purpose is to improve…

  12. Bilevel Traffic Evacuation Model and Algorithm Design for Large-Scale Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danwen Bao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a bilevel planning model with one master and multiple slaves to solve traffic evacuation problems. The minimum evacuation network saturation and shortest evacuation time are used as the objective functions for the upper- and lower-level models, respectively. The optimizing conditions of this model are also analyzed. An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO method is proposed by introducing an electromagnetism-like mechanism to solve the bilevel model and enhance its convergence efficiency. A case study is carried out using the Nanjing Olympic Sports Center. The results indicate that, for large-scale activities, the average evacuation time of the classic model is shorter but the road saturation distribution is more uneven. Thus, the overall evacuation efficiency of the network is not high. For induced emergencies, the evacuation time of the bilevel planning model is shortened. When the audience arrival rate is increased from 50% to 100%, the evacuation time is shortened from 22% to 35%, indicating that the optimization effect of the bilevel planning model is more effective compared to the classic model. Therefore, the model and algorithm presented in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the traffic-induced evacuation decision making of large-scale activities.

  13. ALFIL: A Crowd Simulation Serious Game for Massive Evacuation Training and Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-García, César; Fernández-Robles, José Luis; Larios-Rosillo, Victor; Luga, Hervé

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the current development of a serious game for the simulation of massive evacuations. The purpose of this project is to promote self-protection through awareness of the procedures and different possible scenarios during the evacuation of a massive event. Sophisticated behaviors require massive computational power and it has…

  14. Evacuation Route: Restoring the Railway Transportation of People During the Great Patriotic War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potemkina Marina Nikolaevna

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the role of the railway transport in migration from the frontline to the Soviet rear during the Great Patriotic War. The research is based on the analysis of the published and archival documents, personal diaries, letters, memoirs, texts of interview with the people who lived through the evacuation. The methodological foundation of the research was based on the theoretical principles made by the Everyday History. Surge attack of the German troops and cruel occupational policy caused the necessity of evacuation of civilians to the Eastern regions of the country. The evacuation was both spontaneous and organized and helped to save millions of human lives. The lack of evacuation plans in case of a war, incompleteness of the railway transport renovation, transport routes destroyed by the enemy and the stream of refugees were among the main factors which complicated evacuation process. The conditions of transportation differed according to the time and the circumstances of the evacuation and a person’s position in social hierarchy. There were some problems during the evacuation, such as regulation of the rail service, sanitation of the carriages, nutrition system, psychological shock. People had to spend weeks in the carriages suffering from cold, hunger and diseases. During the evacuation a new alternative reality appeared with its rules and regulations which changed the concepts of tangible assets and moral values. The priority for any person was to survive, which meant to be independent and to do everything possible.

  15. The Impact of Transport Time on Outcomes Following Evacuation from Point of Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-16

    reasonable in relation to anticipated benefits and the importance of the knowledge that may reasonably be expected to result. The subject selection is...patients with traumatic injuries require urgent medical attention and expeditious evacuation to improve survival. Aeromedical evacuation platforms such as

  16. 5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

  17. Simulating crowd evacuation with socio-cultural, cognitive, and emotional elements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wal, C. Natalie; Formolo, Daniel; Robinson, Mark A.; Minkov, Michael; Bosse, Tibor

    2017-01-01

    In this research, the effects of culture, cognitions, and emotions on crisis management and prevention are analysed. An agent-based crowd evacuation simulation model was created, named IMPACT, to study the evacuation process from a transport hub. To extend previous research, various socio-cultural,

  18. A generic method to optimize instructions for the control of evacuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibregtse, O.L.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Pel, A.J.; Bliemer, M.C.J.

    2010-01-01

    A method is described to develop a set of optimal instructions to evacuate by car the population of a region threatened by a hazard. By giving these instructions to the evacuees, traffic conditions and therefore the evacuation efficiency can be optimized. The instructions, containing a departure

  19. Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.

    2013-04-01

    Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

  20. War casualties: recent trends in evacuation, triage and the golden hour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safdar, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Prompt medical treatment and early evacuation is the goal of military medicine in the battlefield. 'Triage' is a process of sorting the casualties according to the severity of injury and the prioritization of treatment. In trauma management 'Golden Hour' is the first sixty minutes or so after injury; this emphasizes that the chances of the victim's survival are the greatest if definitive care is given as early as possible. Our evacuation protocols follow the triage but the time to treatment is beyond sixty minutes. Many Armies have developed evacuation systems which allow the casualty to be seen within this specified time. This has been achieved by streamlining the evacuation chain, extensive incorporation of air transport and training of paramedics in advanced life support measures. In line with the modern trends we need to modernize our own system of casualty evacuation and treatment. (author)

  1. Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apatu, Emma J. I.; Gregg, Chris E.; Wood, Nathan J.; Wang, Liang

    2016-01-01

    Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

  2. Emergency evacuation models in subway service systems: An application on Izmir (Turkey subway system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökçe Baysal Türkölmez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Increasing population in crowded cities causes transportation problems. Public transportation is an effective solution for the crowded traffic. Subway is a fast and productive alternative for public transportation so it is a highly preferable choice in others. It is hard to evacuate people in subway station during a disaster in carriages, on subway line or in subway stations because subway systems are often located underground, a lot people use it at the same time and enter-exit gates are controlled by turnstiles. It is crucially important to know the evacuation time of people from subway. In this paper, Konak station, one of the most crowded stations of Izmir Subway System is analyzed by emergency evacuation models. The evacuation process is simulated by Simulex software. The emergency evacuation problem is modeled in three different scenarios. Solution offers are developed for them.

  3. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  4. The long-term impact of war experiences and evacuation on people who were children during World War Two.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waugh, Melinda J; Robbins, Ian; Davies, Stephen; Feigenbaum, Janet

    2007-03-01

    During World War Two 1.9 million people were evacuated from British cities where the risk of bombing was perceived to be highest. 1.5 million of these were children who, often unaccompanied, were sent to live with strangers. Two hundred and forty-five people who were evacuated as children were compared with 96 of similar age who did not experience evacuation. Within this self-selected sample, significant numbers of the evacuees were found to have experienced abuse and neglect. Pre-evacuation abuse made continued abuse likely during evacuation, while abuse during evacuation led to children being more likely to continue to be abused on their return home. Abuse during evacuation led to increased scores on the Impact of Event Scale and General Health Questionnaire, and to insecure attachment patterns. The role of evacuation and abuse in the maintenance of long-term psychological problems is discussed.

  5. Game theory in models of pedestrian room evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzat, S.; Kuperman, M. N.

    2014-03-01

    We analyze the pedestrian evacuation of a rectangular room with a single door considering a lattice gas scheme with the addition of behavioral aspects of the pedestrians. The movement of the individuals is based on random and rational choices and is affected by conflicts between two or more agents that want to advance to the same position. Such conflicts are solved according to certain rules closely related to the concept of strategies in game theory, cooperation and defection. We consider game rules analogous to those from the Prisoner's Dilemma and Stag Hunt games, with payoffs associated to the probabilities of the individuals to advance to the selected site. We find that, even when defecting is the rational choice for any agent, under certain conditions, cooperators can take advantage from mutual cooperation and leave the room more rapidly than defectors.

  6. Evacuated, displacement compression mold. [of tubular bodies from thermosetting plastics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heier, W. C. (Inventor)

    1974-01-01

    A process of molding long thin-wall tubular bodies from thermosetting plastic molding compounds is described wherein the tubular body lengths may be several times the diameters. The process is accomplished by loading a predetermined quantity of molding compound into a female mold cavity closed at one end by a force mandrel. After closing the other end of the female mold with a balance mandrel, the loaded cavity is evacuated by applying a vacuum of from one-to-five mm pressure for a period of fifteen-to-thirty minutes. The mold temperature is raised to the minimum temperature at which the resin constituent of the compound will soften or plasticize and a pressure of 2500 psi is applied.

  7. Engineering development studies for integrated evacuated CPC arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winston, R.

    1982-04-01

    An evacuated tube concentrator which achieves respectable high temperature performance (100 C to 300 C) was developed. The design concept utilizes nonimaging CPC type concentration integrated into each tube by shaping the outer glass vacuum envelope. The detailed design, prototype fabrication and preliminary test measurements are reviewed. In addition the results of this first study specifically devoted to engineering development questions related to practical applications of this collector concept are summarized. Questions having to do with the deployment of medium to large area arrays, optimizations of the manifolding of individual tube panels, selected near term applications (with an emphasis on residential cooling based on Rankine driven chillers) and long term performance projections are addressed.

  8. Real-time micro-modelling of city evacuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löhner, Rainald; Haug, Eberhard; Zinggerling, Claudio; Oñate, Eugenio

    2018-01-01

    A methodology to integrate geographical information system (GIS) data with large-scale pedestrian simulations has been developed. Advances in automatic data acquisition and archiving from GIS databases, automatic input for pedestrian simulations, as well as scalable pedestrian simulation tools have made it possible to simulate pedestrians at the individual level for complete cities in real time. An example that simulates the evacuation of the city of Barcelona demonstrates that this is now possible. This is the first step towards a fully integrated crowd prediction and management tool that takes into account not only data gathered in real time from cameras, cell phones or other sensors, but also merges these with advanced simulation tools to predict the future state of the crowd.

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study.

  10. A Study of Flood Evacuation Center Using GIS and Remote Sensing Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustaffa, A. A.; Rosli, M. F.; Abustan, M. S.; Adib, R.; Rosli, M. I.; Masiri, K.; Saifullizan, B.

    2016-07-01

    This research demonstrated the use of Remote Sensing technique and GIS to determine the suitability of an evacuation center. This study was conducted in Batu Pahat areas that always hit by a series of flood. The data of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was obtained by ASTER database that has been used to delineate extract contour line and elevation. Landsat 8 image was used for classification purposes such as land use map. Remote Sensing incorporate with GIS techniques was used to determined the suitability location of the evacuation center from contour map of flood affected areas in Batu Pahat. GIS will calculate the elevation of the area and information about the country of the area, the road access and percentage of the affected area. The flood affected area map may provide the suitability of the flood evacuation center during the several levels of flood. The suitability of evacuation centers can be determined based on several criteria and the existing data of the evacuation center will be analysed. From the analysis among 16 evacuation center listed, there are only 8 evacuation center suitable for the usage during emergency situation. The suitability analysis was based on the location and the road access of the evacuation center toward the flood affected area. There are 10 new locations with suitable criteria of evacuation center proposed on the study area to facilitate the process of rescue and evacuating flood victims to much safer and suitable locations. The results of this study will help in decision making processes and indirectly will help organization such as fire-fighter and the Department of Social Welfare in their work. Thus, this study can contribute more towards the society.

  11. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2016-01-01

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study

  12. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  13. CT-guided stereotaxic evacuation of cerebellar hematoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niizuma, Hiroshi; Ohtsuki, Taisuke; Ohyama, Hideki; Suzuki, Jiro

    1985-01-01

    Stereotaxic lateral approach for cerebellar hematoma is presented using Leksell's CT-stereotaxic system. All of the procedures are performed in the CT room. Patient's head is turned to contralateral side of the hematoma 30 to 40 0 with slight flexion of the neck. Stereotaxic apparatus is secured to the head under local anesthesia. Hematoma is confirmed by computerized tomograms. Three dimensional coordinates of the target point (center of the hematoma) are measured from the vertical and diagonal rods of Leksell's system. Linear skin incision 4 cm in length is made on retromastoid area. Burr-hole is put on just lateral position of the target point, usually 5 to 6 cm posterior and 1 cm above from the external auditory meatus. Transverse or sigmoid sinus does not appeared through the burr-hole by this approach. Specially made Dandy's cannula (3.0 mm in diameter, 220 mm in length) is inserted into the target point, and manual evacuation of the hematoma is performed carefully using a syringe. Then Dandy's cannula is replaced by silastic drainage tube (3.5 mm in diameter), and 6,000 Units of Urokinase solved in 2 ml of saline is administered to the hematoma cavity. Dissolved hematoma is aspirated every 24 hours until the most of the hematoma is evacuated. We operated three cases of cerebellar hematoma by this method with favorable results. Advantages of this method are as follows: Operative invasion is minimal; The surgeon can cbeck the residual hematoma and position of the tip of cannula even at operation, if necessary. (author)

  14. PYRONES: pyro-modeling and evacuation simulation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanellos, Tassos; Doulgerakis, Adam; Georgiou, Eftichia; Kountouriotis, Vassilios I.; Paterakis, Manolis; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.; Pappou, Theodora; Vrahliotis, Socrates I.; Rekouniotis, Thrasos; Protopsaltis, Byron; Rozenberg, Ofir; Livneh, Ofer

    2016-05-01

    Structural fires continue to pose a great threat towards human life and property. Due to the complexity and non-deterministic characteristics of a building fire disaster, it is not a straightforward task to assess the effectiveness of fire protection measures embedded in the building design, planned evacuation strategies and potential modes of response for mitigating the fire's consequences. Additionally, there is a lack of means that realistically and accurately recreate the conditions of building fire disasters for the purpose of training personnel in order to be sufficiently prepared when vis-a-vis with such an environment. The propagation of fire within a building, the diffusion of its volatile products, the behavior of the occupants and the sustained injuries not only exhibit non-linear behaviors as individual phenomena, but are also intertwined in a web of co-dependencies. The PYRONES system has been developed to address all these aspects through a comprehensive approach that relies on accurate and realistic computer simulations of the individual phenomena and their interactions. PYRONES offers innovative tools and services to strategically targeted niches in two market domains. In the domain of building design and engineering, PYRONES is seamlessly integrated within existing engineering Building Information Modelling (BIM) workflows and serves as a building performance assessment platform, able to evaluate fire protection systems. On another front, PYRONES penetrates the building security management market, serving as a holistic training platform for specialists in evacuation strategy planning, firefighters and first responders, both at a Command and Control and at an individual trainee level.

  15. Thermal performance of evacuated tube heat pipe solar collector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, Nandy; Kristian, M. R.; David, R.; Haliansyah, K.; Ariantara, Bambang

    2016-06-01

    The high fossil energy consumption not only causes the scarcity of energy but also raises problems of global warming. Increasing needs of fossil fuel could be reduced through the utilization of solar energy by using solar collectors. Indonesia has the abundant potential for solar energy, but non-renewable energy sources still dominate energy consumption. With heat pipe as passive heat transfer device, evacuated tube solar collector is expected to heat up water for industrial and home usage without external power supply needed to circulate water inside the solar collector. This research was conducted to determine the performance of heat pipe-based evacuated tube solar collector as solar water heater experimentally. The experiments were carried out using stainless steel screen mesh as a wick material, and water and Al2O3-water 0.1% nanofluid as working fluid, and applying inclination angles of 0°, 15°, 30°, and 45°. To analyze the heat absorbed and transferred by the prototype, water at 30°C was circulated through the condenser. A 150 Watt halogen lamp was used as sun simulator, and the prototype was covered by an insulation box to obtain a steady state condition with a minimum affection of ambient changes. Experimental results show that the usage of Al2O3-water 0.1% nanofluid at 30° inclination angle provides the highest thermal performance, which gives efficiency as high as 0.196 and thermal resistance as low as 5.32 °C/W. The use of nanofluid as working fluid enhances thermal performance due to high thermal conductivity of the working fluid. The increase of the inclination angle plays a role in the drainage of the condensate to the evaporator that leads to higher thermal performance until the optimal inclination angle is reached.

  16. Study on the Performance of a Proposed Fire Safe Elevator System used for Evacuation in Supertall Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai Na

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Long evacuation time is a key fire safety concern when a supertall building is on fire. The elevator system can be an effective alternative. The performance of a design of fire safe elevator system combining the refuge place with fire safe elevator is studied. An example building based on this proposed design is considered. Smoke spread to the system is studied by the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD code Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. Different arrangements of smoke extraction with pressurization systems are evaluated by analysing the smoke dispersion and pressure distributions in this fire safe elevator system. Numerical results were compared with that by theoretical equations. The results show that a smoke extraction system with a four-floor approach pressurization system can be an efficient method for smoke control in elevator system for supertall buildings.

  17. Transit-Based Emergency Evacuation with Transit Signal Priority in Sudden-Onset Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciyun Lin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents methods of transit signal priority without transit-only lanes for a transit-based emergency evacuation in a sudden-onset disaster. Arterial priority signal coordination is optimized when a traffic signal control system provides priority signals for transit vehicles along an evacuation route. Transit signal priority is determined by “transit vehicle arrival time estimation,” “queuing vehicle dissipation time estimation,” “traffic signal status estimation,” “transit signal optimization,” and “arterial traffic signal coordination for transit vehicle in evacuation route.” It takes advantage of the large capacities of transit vehicles, reduces the evacuation time, and evacuates as many evacuees as possible. The proposed methods were tested on a simulation platform with Paramics V6.0. To evaluate and compare the performance of transit signal priority, three scenarios were simulated in the simulator. The results indicate that the methods of this study can reduce the travel times of transit vehicles along an evacuation route by 13% and 10%, improve the standard deviation of travel time by 16% and 46%, and decrease the average person delay at a signalized intersection by 22% and 17% when the traffic flow saturation along an evacuation route is 0.81.0, respectively.

  18. A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Thomas, Neil [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

  19. A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulei Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities.

  20. An interval-parameter mixed integer multi-objective programming for environment-oriented evacuation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. Z.; Huang, G. H.; Yan, X. P.; Cai, Y. P.; Li, Y. P.

    2010-05-01

    Large crowds are increasingly common at political, social, economic, cultural and sports events in urban areas. This has led to attention on the management of evacuations under such situations. In this study, we optimise an approximation method for vehicle allocation and route planning in case of an evacuation. This method, based on an interval-parameter multi-objective optimisation model, has potential for use in a flexible decision support system for evacuation management. The modeling solutions are obtained by sequentially solving two sub-models corresponding to lower- and upper-bounds for the desired objective function value. The interval solutions are feasible and stable in the given decision space, and this may reduce the negative effects of uncertainty, thereby improving decision makers' estimates under different conditions. The resulting model can be used for a systematic analysis of the complex relationships among evacuation time, cost and environmental considerations. The results of a case study used to validate the proposed model show that the model does generate useful solutions for planning evacuation management and practices. Furthermore, these results are useful for evacuation planners, not only in making vehicle allocation decisions but also for providing insight into the tradeoffs among evacuation time, environmental considerations and economic objectives.

  1. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, Yago; Li, Zhenlong; Cutter, Susan L

    2017-01-01

    Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  2. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yago Martín

    Full Text Available Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  3. Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jumadi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available As the size of human populations increases, so does the severity of the impacts of natural disasters. This is partly because more people are now occupying areas which are susceptible to hazardous natural events, hence, evacuation is needed when such events occur. Evacuation can be the most important action to minimise the impact of any disaster, but in many cases there are always people who are reluctant to leave. This paper describes an agent-based model (ABM of evacuation decisions, focusing on the emergence of reluctant people in times of crisis and using Merapi, Indonesia as a case study. The individual evacuation decision model is influenced by several factors formulated from a literature review and survey. We categorised the factors influencing evacuation decisions into two opposing forces, namely, the driving factors to leave (evacuate versus those to stay, to formulate the model. The evacuation decision (to stay/leave of an agent is based on an evaluation of the strength of these driving factors using threshold-based rules. This ABM was utilised with a synthetic population from census microdata, in which everyone is characterised by the decision rule. Three scenarios with varying parameters are examined to calibrate the model. Validations were conducted using a retrodictive approach by performing spatial and temporal comparisons between the outputs of simulation and the real data. We present the results of the simulations and discuss the outcomes to conclude with the most plausible scenario.

  4. Empirical Test Case Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Heiselberg, Per

    This document includes the empirical specification on the IEA task of evaluation building energy simulation computer programs for the Double Skin Facades (DSF) constructions. There are two approaches involved into this procedure, one is the comparative approach and another is the empirical one. I....... In the comparative approach the outcomes of different software tools are compared, while in the empirical approach the modelling results are compared with the results of experimental test cases....

  5. Evacuation of the ICU: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Mary A; Niven, Alexander S; Beninati, William; Fang, Ray; Einav, Sharon; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D; Grissom, Colin K

    2014-10-01

    Despite the high risk for patient harm during unanticipated ICU evacuations, critical care providers receive little to no training on how to perform safe and effective ICU evacuations. We reviewed the pertinent published literature and offer suggestions for the critical care provider regarding ICU evacuation. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. The Evacuation and Mobilization topic panel used the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop seven key questions for which specific literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Based on current best evidence, we provide 13 suggestions outlining a systematic approach to prepare for and execute an effective ICU evacuation during a disaster. Interhospital and intrahospital collaboration and functional ICU communication are critical for success. Pre-event planning and preparation are required for a no-notice evacuation. A Critical Care Team Leader must be designated within the Hospital Incident Command System. A three-stage ICU Evacuation Timeline, including (1) no immediate threat, (2) evacuation threat, and (3) evacuation implementation, should be used. Detailed suggestions on ICU evacuation, including regional planning, evacuation drills, patient transport preparation and equipment, patient prioritization and distribution for evacuation, patient information and tracking, and federal and international evacuation assistance systems, are also provided. Successful ICU evacuation during a disaster requires active preparation, participation

  6. EVACUATION ROUTE MAPPING AGAINST SLAMET VOLCANO DISASTER AT GUNUNGSARI VILLAGE, PULOSARI SUB DISTRICT, PEMALANG DISTRICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misdiyanto Misdiyanto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Villages inside the hazard zone of Slamet Volcano should have an evacuation map, as an anticipation and guidance to guide people evacuate when volcanic activity on the area arise to dangerous level. The experience which occurred at 2009 and 2010 indicate the necessity of the development of evacuation map for 7 villages inside the hazard zone in the Pemalang residential district, such as village of Gunung Sari. The main purpose of the developing an evacuation map is to make the village of Gunung sari becoming more vigilant to anticipate the danger of Slamet Mount eruption. Qualitative methods were used in this study, by handing out preliminary questionnaire to investigate the characteristic of the residents. The development of evacuation map also relies on the participation of the residents, then the resulted map were evaluated by assessing how far people can understand and comprehend any information provided on the map. The result of the investigation shows that Gunungsari’s resident wants an evacuation map, shown by high enthusiasm on the questions of the necessity of an evacuation map and disaster preparedness team that is equal to 97% of the residents on Dusun Sipendil, 83% on dusun Sibedil, 67% on Dusun Silegok, and 63% on Dusun Krajan. The residents also understand and comprehend the information provided on the map nicely, especially about the timing and rendezvous location for the evacuation. It is indicated by high proportion of residents that answer the questions asked accurately, which is 100% on Dusun Sipendil, 97% on Dusun Sibedil, and 80% for both Dusun Silegok and Dusun Krajan. Keywords: disaster prone area, evacuation map, society characteristic

  7. Aero-medical evacuation from the second Israel-Lebanon war: a descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Dagan; Resheff, Avram; Geftler, Alex; Weiss, Aviram; Birenbaum, Erez; Lavon, Ophir

    2009-05-01

    The second Lebanon war started as a limited operation and progressed to a large-scale campaign. Most of the fighting took place in mountainous villages and small towns inhabited with civilians. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Airborne rescue and evacuation unit is charged with air evacuation of soldiers and civilians in times of peace, limited conflict, and war. We describe this unit's activities in the second Lebanon war, analyzing injury, treatment, and evacuation characteristics Data were collected from flight medical reports, debriefings of aero-medical team members (usually immediately upon return from mission), ground units medical reports and debriefings, and hospital records. 725 IDF soldiers were injured and 117 killed either in Lebanon or near the Israeli-Lebanese border during the war. A total of 338 (46%) were evacuated in 95 airlifts (averaging 4.5 evacuees per airlift) from the fighting zones or the border. Air evacuation used dedicated helicopters with advanced care capacities, and most victims were evacuated straight from the battlefield, as the fighting was ensuing. Many wounded first received advanced medical care upon the arrival of the aero-medical teams. In military operations within civilian populated areas with threats to ground transport, air evacuation can sometimes be the only readily available option. Providing timely ground advanced medical care proved difficult in many instances. Thus, for many, the rescue helicopter was the first point of access to such care. Aero-medical aircrafts and personnel faced threats from gunfire and missiles, causing both delays in evacuation and a high average number of evacuees per airlift. This article proposes ways of coping with situations in which similar rescue and evacuation problems are likely.

  8. Public assessment of the usefulness of "draft" tsunami evacuation maps from Sydney, Australia – implications for the establishment of formal evacuation plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Australia is at risk from tsunamis and recent work has identified the need for models to assess the vulnerability of exposed coastal areas – a fundamental element of the risk management process. Outputs of vulnerability assessment can be used as a baseline for the generation of tsunami prevention and mitigation measures, including evacuation maps. Having noted that no evacuation maps exist for Manly, Sydney (an area recently subjected to high resolution building vulnerability assessment by Dall'Osso et al., 2009b, we use the results of the analysis by Dall'Osso et al. (2009b to "draft" tsunami evacuation maps that could be used by the local emergency service organisations. We then interviewed 500 permanent residents of Manly in order to gain a rapid assessment on their views about the potential usefulness of the draft evacuation maps we generated. Results of the survey indicate that residents think the maps are useful and understandable, and include insights that should be considered by local government planners and emergency risk management specialists during the development of official evacuation maps (and plans in the future.

  9. [PTSD-positive screening and factors influencing the mental state in victims evacuated/ not evacuated from Wenchuan earthquake area within 1 month].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xueping; Luo, Xingwei

    2009-06-01

    To explore posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) positive screening and factors influencing the mental state in victims who were evacuated/were not evacuated from Wenchuan earthquake area within 1 month. The 3 groups included 235 victims who were not evacuated from Shifang territory (the incident scene, Group A), 44 victims who were evacuated to Second Xiangya Hospital (the wounded, Group B) and 36 relatives (the relatives, Group C). The mental state of all subjects was evaluated by Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) and other tools. (1) One month after the disaster, and the positive rate of PTSD screening in these survivors was 35.56%, the positive rate in women was significantly higher than that in men (chi(2)=16.27,PGender, place of residence and evacuating from the earthquake area or not were factors of PTSD symptoms. One month after the earthquake, the victims suffered psychologically. PTSD symptoms, anxiety and depression symptoms were their major mental problems, more attention to especially women victims. The protection factors include dispersing victims to the secure place as soon as possible, expanding and strengthening society support. Early psychological interventions will help victims to raise their psychological endurance and prevent PTSD effectively.

  10. VALIDATION OF SIMULATION MODELS FOR DIFFERENTLY DESIGNED HEAT-PIPE EVACUATED TUBULAR COLLECTORS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Jianhua; Dragsted, Janne; Furbo, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Differently designed heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors have been investigated theoretically and experimentally. The theoretical work has included development of two TRNSYS [1] simulation models for heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors utilizing solar radiation from all directions. One model...... coating on both sides. The input to the models is thus not a simple collector efficiency expression but the actual collector geometry. In this study, the TRNSYS models are validated with measurements for four differently designed heat-pipe evacuated tubular collectors. The collectors are produced...

  11. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Sánchez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  12. Maximum Smoke Temperature in Non-Smoke Model Evacuation Region for Semi-Transverse Tunnel Fire

    OpenAIRE

    B. Lou; Y. Qiu; X. Long

    2017-01-01

    Smoke temperature distribution in non-smoke evacuation under different mechanical smoke exhaust rates of semi-transverse tunnel fire were studied by FDS numerical simulation in this paper. The effect of fire heat release rate (10MW 20MW and 30MW) and exhaust rate (from 0 to 160m3/s) on the maximum smoke temperature in non-smoke evacuation region was discussed. Results show that the maximum smoke temperature in non-smoke evacuation region decreased with smoke exhaust rate. Plug-holing was obse...

  13. Integration of social vulnerability into emergency management plans: designing of evacuation routes against flood disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods are highly spatio-temporal localized flood events characterized by reaching a high peak flow in a very short period of time, i.e., generally with times of concentration lower than six hours. Its short duration, which limits or even voids any warning time, means that flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk, either in terms of the number of people affected globally or the proportion of individual fatalities. The above highlights the importance of a realistic and appropriate design of evacuation strategies in order to reduce flood-related losses, being evacuation planning considered of critical importance for disaster management. Traditionally, evacuation maps have been based on flood-prone areas, shelters or emergency residences location and evacuation routes information. However, evacuation plans rarely consider the spatial distribution of vulnerable population (i.e., people with special needs, mobility constraints or economic difficulties), which usually require assistance from emergency responders. The goal of this research is to elaborate an evacuation map against the occurrence of flash floods by combining geographic information (e.g. roads, health facilities location, sanitary helicopters) and social vulnerability patterns, which are previously obtained from socioeconomic variables (e.g. population, unemployment, dwelling characteristics). To do this, ArcGis Network Analyst tool is used, which allows to calculate the optimal evacuation routes. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2). Urban areas prone to flash flooding are identified taking into account the following requirements: i) city centers are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1; ii) city centers are potentially affected by flash floods; and iii) city centers are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability

  14. [Diary of a hospital evacuation. Discovery of a 5 hundredweight bomb from World War II].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katter, I; Kunitz, O; Deller, A

    2008-07-01

    The discovery of an aircraft bomb from World War II made the complete evacuation of a tertiary care hospital with 629 beds and 17 specialist departments including a neonatal intensive care unit necessary. Some months before an alarm plan had been issued and a fire practice had been carried out which made it obvious to all concerned how important such measures are. Nevertheless, more room for improvement could be learned from the evacuation, in particular the rapid classification of the patients into categories and the fact that 20-30% of the patients needed stretcher-based transport for evacuation.

  15. Implementation of metal-friendly EAM/FS-type semi-empirical potentials in HOOMD-blue: A GPU-accelerated molecular dynamics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lin; Zhang, Feng; Wang, Cai-Zhuang; Ho, Kai-Ming; Travesset, Alex

    2018-04-01

    We present an implementation of EAM and FS interatomic potentials, which are widely used in simulating metallic systems, in HOOMD-blue, a software designed to perform classical molecular dynamics simulations using GPU accelerations. We first discuss the details of our implementation and then report extensive benchmark tests. We demonstrate that single-precision floating point operations efficiently implemented on GPUs can produce sufficient accuracy when compared against double-precision codes, as demonstrated in test simulations of calculations of the glass-transition temperature of Cu64.5Zr35.5, and pair correlation function g (r) of liquid Ni3Al. Our code scales well with the size of the simulating system on NVIDIA Tesla M40 and P100 GPUs. Compared with another popular software LAMMPS running on 32 cores of AMD Opteron 6220 processors, the GPU/CPU performance ratio can reach as high as 4.6. The source code can be accessed through the HOOMD-blue web page for free by any interested user.

  16. Crowd behaviour during high-stress evacuations in an immersive virtual environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapadia, Mubbasir; Thrash, Tyler; Sumner, Robert W.; Gross, Markus; Helbing, Dirk; Hölscher, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the collective dynamics of crowd movements during stressful emergency situations is central to reducing the risk of deadly crowd disasters. Yet, their systematic experimental study remains a challenging open problem due to ethical and methodological constraints. In this paper, we demonstrate the viability of shared three-dimensional virtual environments as an experimental platform for conducting crowd experiments with real people. In particular, we show that crowds of real human subjects moving and interacting in an immersive three-dimensional virtual environment exhibit typical patterns of real crowds as observed in real-life crowded situations. These include the manifestation of social conventions and the emergence of self-organized patterns during egress scenarios. High-stress evacuation experiments conducted in this virtual environment reveal movements characterized by mass herding and dangerous overcrowding as they occur in crowd disasters. We describe the behavioural mechanisms at play under such extreme conditions and identify critical zones where overcrowding may occur. Furthermore, we show that herding spontaneously emerges from a density effect without the need to assume an increase of the individual tendency to imitate peers. Our experiments reveal the promise of immersive virtual environments as an ethical, cost-efficient, yet accurate platform for exploring crowd behaviour in high-risk situations with real human subjects. PMID:27605166

  17. Fiber Bragg grating sensors for real-time monitoring of evacuation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guru Prasad, A. S.; Hegde, Gopalkrishna M.; Asokan, S.

    2010-03-01

    Fiber bragg grating (FBG) sensors have been widely used for number of sensing applications like temperature, pressure, acousto-ultrasonic, static and dynamic strain, refractive index change measurements and so on. Present work demonstrates the use of FBG sensors in in-situ measurement of vacuum process with simultaneous leak detection capability. Experiments were conducted in a bell jar vacuum chamber facilitated with conventional Pirani gauge for vacuum measurement. Three different experiments have been conducted to validate the performance of FBG sensor in monitoring vacuum creating process and air bleeding. The preliminary results of FBG sensors in vacuum monitoring have been compared with that of commercial Pirani gauge sensor. This novel technique offers a simple alternative to conventional method for real time monitoring of evacuation process. Proposed FBG based vacuum sensor has potential applications in vacuum systems involving hazardous environment such as chemical and gas plants, automobile industries, aeronautical establishments and leak monitoring in process industries, where the electrical or MEMS based sensors are prone to explosion and corrosion.

  18. A markov decision process model for the optimal dispatch of military medical evacuation assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keneally, Sean K; Robbins, Matthew J; Lunday, Brian J

    2016-06-01

    We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine aerial military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatch policies in a combat environment. The problem of deciding which aeromedical asset to dispatch to each service request is complicated by the threat conditions at the service locations and the priority class of each casualty event. We assume requests for MEDEVAC support arrive sequentially, with the location and the priority of each casualty known upon initiation of the request. The United States military uses a 9-line MEDEVAC request system to classify casualties as being one of three priority levels: urgent, priority, and routine. Multiple casualties can be present at a single casualty event, with the highest priority casualty determining the priority level for the casualty event. Moreover, an armed escort may be required depending on the threat level indicated by the 9-line MEDEVAC request. The proposed MDP model indicates how to optimally dispatch MEDEVAC helicopters to casualty events in order to maximize steady-state system utility. The utility gained from servicing a specific request depends on the number of casualties, the priority class for each of the casualties, and the locations of both the servicing ambulatory helicopter and casualty event. Instances of the dispatching problem are solved using a relative value iteration dynamic programming algorithm. Computational examples are used to investigate optimal dispatch policies under different threat situations and armed escort delays; the examples are based on combat scenarios in which United States Army MEDEVAC units support ground operations in Afghanistan.

  19. Crowd behaviour during high-stress evacuations in an immersive virtual environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kapadia, Mubbasir; Thrash, Tyler; Sumner, Robert W; Gross, Markus; Helbing, Dirk; Hölscher, Christoph

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the collective dynamics of crowd movements during stressful emergency situations is central to reducing the risk of deadly crowd disasters. Yet, their systematic experimental study remains a challenging open problem due to ethical and methodological constraints. In this paper, we demonstrate the viability of shared three-dimensional virtual environments as an experimental platform for conducting crowd experiments with real people. In particular, we show that crowds of real human subjects moving and interacting in an immersive three-dimensional virtual environment exhibit typical patterns of real crowds as observed in real-life crowded situations. These include the manifestation of social conventions and the emergence of self-organized patterns during egress scenarios. High-stress evacuation experiments conducted in this virtual environment reveal movements characterized by mass herding and dangerous overcrowding as they occur in crowd disasters. We describe the behavioural mechanisms at play under such extreme conditions and identify critical zones where overcrowding may occur. Furthermore, we show that herding spontaneously emerges from a density effect without the need to assume an increase of the individual tendency to imitate peers. Our experiments reveal the promise of immersive virtual environments as an ethical, cost-efficient, yet accurate platform for exploring crowd behaviour in high-risk situations with real human subjects. © 2016 The Authors.

  20. Empirical Philosophy of Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansnerus, Erika; Wagenknecht, Susann

    2015-01-01

    knowledge takes place through the integration of the empirical or historical research into the philosophical studies, as Chang, Nersessian, Thagard and Schickore argue in their work. Building upon their contributions we will develop a blueprint for an Empirical Philosophy of Science that draws upon...... qualitative methods from the social sciences in order to advance our philosophical understanding of science in practice. We will regard the relationship between philosophical conceptualization and empirical data as an iterative dialogue between theory and data, which is guided by a particular ‘feeling with......Empirical insights are proven fruitful for the advancement of Philosophy of Science, but the integration of philosophical concepts and empirical data poses considerable methodological challenges. Debates in Integrated History and Philosophy of Science suggest that the advancement of philosophical...

  1. Low-cost evacuated-tube solar collector. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beecher, D. T.

    1981-02-10

    A prototype design for an evacuated tube air cooled solar collector module has been completed. A product cost study, based on the production of 60,000 of the prototype modules per year (approx. 1,000,000 square feet annually), estimates that the module as shipped would have a cost at inventory of $7.09 to $7.40 per square foot of aperture. Computer programs were developed to predict the optical and thermal performance of the module. Antireflective coatings (porous aluminum oxide) which could be formed by spraying or dipping were demonstrated but degraded more rapidly when exposed to a high humidity ambient than acid etched films. A selective black chromium oxide multi-layered graded film was vapor deposited which had an absorptivity of about 0.9 and an emissivity of 0.03. When the film was heated to temperatures of 400/sup 0/C in a gettered vacuum for as little as 24 hours, however, irreversible changes took place both between and within coating layers which resulted in ..cap alpha.. decreasing to about 0.73 and epsilon increasing to 0.14. The product cost studies indicate that module design changes are warranted to reduce product cost prior to tooling for production.

  2. 78 FR 13325 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Research on Evacuating Persons With Mobility...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Institute of Standards and Technology Proposed Information... Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Commerce. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Department of Commerce... how building occupants with mobility impairments currently evacuate multi-story buildings in the...

  3. Variations in disaster evacuation behavior: public responses versus private sector executive decision-making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabek, T E

    1992-06-01

    Data obtained from 65 executives working for tourism firms in three sample communities permitted comparison with the public warning response literature regarding three topics: disaster evacuation planning, initial warning responses, and disaster evacuation behavior. Disaster evacuation planning was reported by nearly all of these business executives, although it was highly variable in content, completeness, and formality. Managerial responses to post-disaster warnings paralleled the type of complex social processes that have been documented within the public response literature, except that warning sources and confirmation behavior were significantly affected by contact with authorities. Five key areas of difference were discovered in disaster evacuation behavior pertaining to: influence of planning, firm versus family priorities, shelter selection, looting concerns, and media contacts.

  4. National study on carless and special needs populations mobilizing your community for emergency evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The National Study on Carless and Special Needs Evacuation Planning was a multi-year study funded by the Federal Transit Administration : to research how state Departments of Transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), transit ...

  5. Evaluating coastal and river valley communities evacuation network performance using macroscopic productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-30

    The ever-increasing processing speed and computational power of computers and simulation systems has led to correspondingly larger, more sophisticated representations of evacuation traffic processes. Today, micro-level analyses can be conducted for m...

  6. Who’s there? Electronic school rosters and emergency evacuation plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Delfino

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available If a school opts for electronic attendance rosters, what happens in case of emergency evacuation? Can you establish exactly who’s on school premises without falling back on paper-based lists?

  7. Prototype design for a predictive model to improve evacuation operations : technical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    Mass evacuations of the Texas Gulf Coast remain a difficult challenge. These events are massive in scale, : highly complex, and entail an intricate, ever-changing conglomeration of technical and jurisdictional issues. : This project focused primarily...

  8. CLEAR: a model for the calculation of evacuation-time estimates in Emergency Planning Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, M.A.; Moeller, M.P.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffice flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffice queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. CLEAR can calculate realistic evacuation time estimates using site specific data and can identify troublesome areas within an Emergency Planning Zone

  9. Semi-empiric model of an air cooled cabinet air conditioner for the dynamic analysis of the building and acclimation systems integrated behaviour; Modelo semi-empirico de condicionador de gabinete resfriado a ar para analise dinamica do comportamento integrado de edificacoes e sistemas de climatizacao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, Jorge E. [Para Univ., Belem (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: jecorrea@amazon.com.br; Melo, Claudio. E-mail: melo@nrva.ufsc.br; Negrao, Cezar O. R. E-mail: negrao@energia.damec.cefetpr.br

    2000-07-01

    This work presents a semi-empirical model for a air cooled case air conditioner. This model is to be inserted in the EPS-r program (Environmental System Performance - research version) allowing the dynamic analysis of the integrated behaviour of buildings and acclimation systems using this equipment. Results obtained from simulations under the operation conditions existing in Brazil are analysed.

  10. A comparison of the nursing home evacuation experience between hurricanes katrina (2005) and gustav (2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Gary; Dosa, David

    2009-11-01

    One of the tragic legacies of Hurricane Katrina was the loss of life among Louisiana (LA) nursing home (NH) residents. Katrina revealed a staggering lack of emergency preparation and understanding of how to safely evacuate frail populations. Three years later, LA braced for Hurricane Gustav, a storm heralded to rival Katrina's power. Although its magnitude of destruction ultimately paled to Katrina, the warnings and predicted path preceding Gustav yielded a process of NH evacuations similar to Katrina. The goal of this article was to ascertain whether NH administrative directors (ADs) felt more prepared to evacuate before Gustav. In 2006, Dosa et al(5) (J Am Med Dir Assoc, 3/07), interviewed 20 NH ADs by qualitative telephone survey to evaluate their lessons learned from Katrina. Administrators at these 20 participating nursing homes were contacted and asked to participate in a follow-up survey to compare hurricane preparedness between 2005 and 2008. Specifically, ADs were asked if they evacuated before Gustav, their destination, and about logistical issues with evacuation (eg, transportation, injuries). ADs were asked to rate their confidence with state assistance, hurricane transportation, and evacuation preparedness on a 10-point scale (10=most confident) and compare their preparedness to Katrina. Sixteen of the 20 NHs that participated in 2006 agreed to be surveyed-11 of whom held the same position before Katrina. Unlike Katrina, when only 45% evacuated before the storm, all 16 NHs evacuated before Gustav (56% to another NH and 46% to a church, gym, college, or other facility). Overall, ADs rated their confidence in preparedness for Gustav as a mean of 8.3 (range 5 to 10) compared with a mean of 5.4 (range 3 to 8) for Katrina, a 54% improvement. Of the 11 ADs employed pre-Katrina, 73% reported improved collaboration with the state and 55% noted improved transportation. Nevertheless, 7 ADs noted significant logistical problems during evacuation (mostly

  11. Patient-driven resource planning of a health care facility evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petinaux, Bruno; Yadav, Kabir

    2013-04-01

    The evacuation of a health care facility is a complex undertaking, especially if done in an immediate fashion, ie, within minutes. Patient factors, such as continuous medical care needs, mobility, and comprehension, will affect the efficiency of the evacuation and translate into evacuation resource needs. Prior evacuation resource estimates are 30 years old. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey of charge nurses of the clinical units in an urban, academic, adult trauma health care facility (HCF), the evacuation needs of hospitalized patients were assessed periodically over a two-year period. Survey data were collected on 2,050 patients. Units with patients having low continuous medical care needs during an emergency evacuation were the postpartum, psychiatry, rehabilitation medicine, surgical, and preoperative anesthesia care units, the Emergency Department, and Labor and Delivery Department (with the exception of patients in Stage II labor). Units with patients having high continuous medical care needs during an evacuation included the neonatal and adult intensive care units, special procedures unit, and operating and post-anesthesia care units. With the exception of the neonate group, 908 (47%) of the patients would be able to walk out of the facility, 492 (25.5%) would require a wheelchair, and 530 (27.5%) would require a stretcher to exit the HCF. A total of 1,639 patients (84.9%) were deemed able to comprehend the need to evacuate and to follow directions; the remainder were sedated, blind, or deaf. The charge nurses also determined that 17 (6.9%) of the 248 adult intensive care unit patients were too ill to survive an evacuation, and that in 10 (16.4%) of the 61 ongoing surgery cases, stopping the case was not considered to be safe. Heath care facilities can utilize the results of this study to model their anticipated resource requirements for an emergency evacuation. This will permit the Incident Management Team to mobilize the necessary resources both within

  12. Preclinical Evaluation of the Effects of Aeromedical Evacuation on Military-Relevant Casualties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Evaluation of the timing of aeromedical evacuation in rat and swine models of TBI and polytrauma ” will investigate whether early vs delayed aeromedical...injury. Instrumented swine with polytrauma [TBI, hemorrhagic shock (HS), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)] will be resuscitated and...2). WRAIR/NMRC IACUC protocol 17-OUMD-29LS “Evaluation of the Timing of Aeromedical Evacuation in Rat and Swine Models of TBI and Polytrauma

  13. Canada's evacuation policy for pregnant First Nations women: Resignation, resilience, and resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawford, Karen M; Giles, Audrey R; Bourgeault, Ivy L

    2018-02-10

    Aboriginal peoples in Canada are comprised of First Nations, Métis, and Inuit. Health care services for First Nations who live on rural and remote reserves are mostly provided by the Government of Canada through the federal department, Health Canada. One Health Canada policy, the evacuation policy, requires all First Nations women living on rural and remote reserves to leave their communities between 36 and 38 weeks gestational age and travel to urban centres to await labour and birth. Although there are a few First Nations communities in Canada that have re-established community birthing and Aboriginal midwifery is growing, most First Nations communities are still reliant on the evacuation policy for labour and birthing services. In one Canadian province, Manitoba, First Nations women are evacuated to The Pas, Thompson, or Winnipeg but most - including all women with high-risk pregnancies - go to Winnipeg. To contribute scholarship that describes First Nations women's and community members' experiences and perspectives of Health Canada's evacuation policy in Manitoba. Applying intersectional theory to data collected through 12 semi-structured interviews with seven women and five community members (four females, one male) in Manitoba who had experienced the evacuation policy. The data were analyzed thematically, which revealed three themes: resignation, resilience, and resistance. The theme of resignation was epitomized by the quote, "Nobody has a choice." The ability to withstand and endure the evacuation policy despite poor or absent communication and loneliness informed of resilience. Resistance was demonstrated by women who questioned the necessity and requirement of evacuation for labour and birth. In one instance, resistance took the form of a planned homebirth with Aboriginal registered midwives. There is a pressing need to improve the maternity care services that First Nations women receive when they are evacuated out of their communities, particularly

  14. Analysis of techniques for estimating evacuation times for emergency planning zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urbanik, T [Texas Transportation Institute (United States); Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers, Seattle, WA (United States); Desrosiers, A [Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States); Lindell, M K; Schuller, C R [Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1980-11-01

    Limitations of current methodologies and some alternatives are discussed that point out that evacuation time is a combination of the time required for four separate actions. These are decision, notification, preparation, and response (travel) time. Times for these actions will overlap to some degree with some people receiving notification, some preparing to leave, and others traveling. Notification and preparation times significantly affect the evacuation time and must be known before time to clear an area can be calculated accurately. (author)

  15. Making Multi-Level Tsunami Evacuation Playbooks Operational in California and Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R. I.; Peterson, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Popham, C.; Richards, K.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2016-12-01

    In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile, 2011 Japan, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis in California and Hawaii, coastal emergency managers requested that state and federal tsunami programs investigate providing more detailed information about the flood potential and recommended evacuation for distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. Evacuation "Playbooks" for tsunamis of variable sizes and source locations have been developed for some communities in the two states, providing secondary options to an all or nothing approach for evacuation. Playbooks have been finalized for nearly 70% of the coastal communities in California, and have been drafted for evaluation by the communities of Honolulu and Hilo in Hawaii. A key component to determining a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami and making the Playbooks operational has been the development of the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the FASTER flood elevation value will be computed and used to select the appropriate minimum tsunami phase evacuation "Playbook" for use by the coastal communities. The states of California and Hawaii, the tsunami warning centers, and local weather service offices are working together to deliver recommendations on the appropriate evacuation Playbook plans for communities to use prior to the arrival of a distant-source tsunami. These partners are working closely with individual communities on developing conservative and consistent protocols on the use of the Playbooks. Playbooks help provide a scientifically-based, minimum response for small- to moderate-size tsunamis which could reduce the potential for over-evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people and save hundreds of millions of dollars in evacuation costs for communities and businesses.

  16. Gut evacuation rate and grazing impact of the krill Thysanoessa raschii and T. inermis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teglhus, Frederik Wolff; Agersted, Mette Dalgaard; Arendt, Kristine Engel

    2015-01-01

    Gut evacuation rates and ingestion rates were measured for the krill Thysanoessa raschii and T. inermis in Godthåbsfjord, SW Greenland. Combined with biomass of the krill community, the grazing potential on phytoplankton along the fjord was estimated. Gut evacuation rates were 3.9 and 2.3 h−1 for...... standing stock being removed per day during this late spring study...

  17. An Evacuation Model for Passenger Ships That Includes the Influence of Obstacles in Cabins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baocheng Ni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Passenger behavior and ship environment are the key factors affecting evacuation efficiency. However, current studies ignore the interior layout of passenger ship cabins and treat the cabins as empty rooms. To investigate the influence of obstacles (e.g., tables and stools on cabin evacuation, we propose an agent-based social force model for advanced evacuation analysis of passenger ships; this model uses a goal-driven submodel to determine a plan and an extended social force submodel to govern the movement of passengers. The extended social force submodel considers the interaction forces between the passengers, crew, and obstacles and minimises the range of these forces to improve computational efficiency. We drew the following conclusions based on a series of evacuation simulations conducted in this study: (1 the proposed model endows the passenger with the behaviors of bypassing and crossing obstacles, (2 funnel-shaped exits from cabins can improve evacuation efficiency, and (3 as the exit angle increases, the evacuation time also increases. These findings offer ship designers some insight towards increasing the safety of large passenger ships.

  18. Prediction of evacuation time for emergency planning zone of Uljin nuclear site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeon, In Young; Lee, Jai Ki

    2002-01-01

    The time for evacuation of residents in Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they are residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation, transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model can appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data, satisfying the purpose of this study

  19. How to simulate pedestrian behaviors in seismic evacuation for vulnerability reduction of existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quagliarini, Enrico; Bernardini, Gabriele; D'Orazio, Marco

    2017-07-01

    Understanding and representing how individuals behave in earthquake emergencies would be essentially to assess the impact of vulnerability reduction strategies on existing buildings in seismic areas. In fact, interactions between individuals and the scenario (modified by the earthquake occurrence) are really important in order to understand the possible additional risks for people, especially during the evacuation phase. The current approach is based on "qualitative" aspects, in order to define best practice guidelines for Civil Protection and populations. On the contrary, a "quantitative" description of human response and evacuation motion in similar conditions is urgently needed. Hence, this work defines the rules for pedestrians' earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios, by taking advantages of previous results of real-world evacuation analyses. In particular, motion laws for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model equation. The proposed model could be used for evaluating individuals' evacuation process and so for defining operative strategies for interferences reduction in critical urban fabric parts (e.g.: interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition, city parts projects).

  20. K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyue He

    Full Text Available Emergency evacuation aims to transport people from dangerous places to safe shelters as quickly as possible. Police play an important role in the evacuation process, as they can handle traffic accidents immediately and help people move smoothly on roads. This paper investigates an evacuation routing problem that involves police resource allocation. We propose a novel k-th-shortest-path-based technique that uses explicit congestion control to optimize evacuation routing and police resource allocation. A nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is presented to formulate the problem. The model's objective is to minimize the overall evacuation clearance time. Two algorithms are given to solve the problem. The first one linearizes the original model and solves the linearized problem with CPLEX. The second one is a heuristic algorithm that uses a police resource utilization efficiency index to directly solve the original model. This police resource utilization efficiency index significantly aids in the evaluation of road links from an evacuation throughput perspective. The proposed algorithms are tested with a number of examples based on real data from cities of different sizes. The computational results show that the police resource utilization efficiency index is very helpful in finding near-optimal solutions. Additionally, comparing the performance of the heuristic algorithm and the linearization method by using randomly generated examples indicates that the efficiency of the heuristic algorithm is superior.

  1. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  2. An indoor augmented reality mobile application for simulation of building evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sharad; Jerripothula, Shanmukha

    2015-03-01

    Augmented Reality enables people to remain connected with the physical environment they are in, and invites them to look at the world from new and alternative perspectives. There has been an increasing interest in emergency evacuation applications for mobile devices. Nearly all the smart phones these days are Wi-Fi and GPS enabled. In this paper, we propose a novel emergency evacuation system that will help people to safely evacuate a building in case of an emergency situation. It will further enhance knowledge and understanding of where the exits are in the building and safety evacuation procedures. We have applied mobile augmented reality (mobile AR) to create an application with Unity 3D gaming engine. We show how the mobile AR application is able to display a 3D model of the building and animation of people evacuation using markers and web camera. The system gives a visual representation of a building in 3D space, allowing people to see where exits are in the building through the use of a smart phone or tablets. Pilot studies were conducted with the system showing its partial success and demonstrated the effectiveness of the application in emergency evacuation. Our computer vision methods give good results when the markers are closer to the camera, but accuracy decreases when the markers are far away from the camera.

  3. Reasons for medical evacuations of soldiers serving in International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation in Afghanistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korzeniewski, Krzysztof; Gregulski, Robert

    2014-01-01

    The article presents the results of a research study into the reasons for medical evacuations of Polish military personnel taking part in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2013. The authors have analysed medical records of 485 soldiers who were medically evacuated out of a combat zone in Afghanistan for battle injuries, non-battle injuries and diseases. Each medically evacuated Polish soldier was subjected to statistical analysis. The study population comprised 25,974 soldiers assigned to the Polish Military Contingent Afghanistan in the given period. From 2007 to 2013, 1.9% of the Polish military personnel (n = 485) participating in the ISAF operation in Afghanistan were evacuated for medical reasons before the scheduled termination of their contract. 40.6% of all medical evacuations were due to battle injuries, 32.4% due to non-battle injuries, and 27.0% due to diseases. ISAF is an example of a combat operation, in which battle injuries remain the leading health problem in mission participants. 3 of 4 Polish soldiers who were medically evacuated from Afghanistan were no longer fit for military service in the area of operations due to the traumas they had suffered.

  4. Self-efficacy and barriers to disaster evacuation in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newnham, Elizabeth A; Balsari, Satchit; Lam, Rex Pui Kin; Kashyap, Shraddha; Pham, Phuong; Chan, Emily Y Y; Patrick, Kaylie; Leaning, Jennifer

    2017-12-01

    To investigate specific challenges to Hong Kong's capacity for effective disaster response, we assessed perceived barriers to evacuation and citizens' self-efficacy. Global positioning system software was used to determine random sampling locations across Hong Kong, weighted by population density. The resulting sample of 1023 participants (46.5% female, mean age 40.74 years) were invited to complete questionnaires on emergency preparedness, barriers to evacuation and self-efficacy. Latent profile analysis and multinomial logistic regression were used to identify self-efficacy profiles and predictors of profile membership. Only 11% of the sample reported feeling prepared to respond to a disaster. If asked to evacuate in an emergency, 41.9% of the sample cited significant issues that would preclude them from doing so. Self-efficacy was negatively associated with barriers to disaster response so that participants reporting higher levels of self-efficacy cited fewer perceived barriers to evacuation. Hong Kong has established effective strategies for emergency response, but concerns regarding evacuation and mobilisation remain. The findings indicate that improving self-efficacy for disaster response has potential to increase evacuation readiness.

  5. Dispositional and situational variables related to evacuation at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, I.S.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore some of the factors influential in local residents' evacuating or remaining in the Three Mile Island area during the nuclear power plant accident of March, 1979. Investigated variables included individuals' behavioral dispositions to attend or to avoid threatening stimuli as well as situational concerns related to demographic characteristics and subjective experience. Investigation of situational variables also probed respondents' concerns about accident-related fears. Two main relationships were investigated. The first hypothesized that positive relationships existed both between dispositional attention to threat and evacuation and between dispositional avoidance of threat and remaining. The second investigation task of the research explored evacuation-related situational variables in regard to individuals' awareness of potential danger at TMI. No support was found for the hypothesized relationships between evacuation and dispositions relative to threat. Situational variables significantly related to evacuation included: specific directives to evacuate the area; disruption of telephone service during the week of the accident; and household proximity to TMI

  6. Life Writing After Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    A watershed moment of the twentieth century, the end of empire saw upheavals to global power structures and national identities. However, decolonisation profoundly affected individual subjectivities too. Life Writing After Empire examines how people around the globe have made sense of the post...... in order to understand how individual life writing reflects broader societal changes. From far-flung corners of the former British Empire, people have turned to life writing to manage painful or nostalgic memories, as well as to think about the past and future of the nation anew through the personal...

  7. Theological reflections on empire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan A. Boesak

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the meeting of the World Alliance of Reformed Churches in Accra, Ghana (2004, and the adoption of the Accra Declaration, a debate has been raging in the churches about globalisation, socio-economic justice, ecological responsibility, political and cultural domination and globalised war. Central to this debate is the concept of empire and the way the United States is increasingly becoming its embodiment. Is the United States a global empire? This article argues that the United States has indeed become the expression of a modern empire and that this reality has considerable consequences, not just for global economics and politics but for theological refl ection as well.

  8. Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takhsha, Maryam; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Laprise, René; Hernández-Díaz, Leticia; Winger, Katja

    2017-10-01

    As part of the CORDEX project, the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) is used over the Arctic for climate simulations driven by reanalyses and by the MPI-ESM-MR coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CRCM5 shows adequate skills capturing general features of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) for all seasons. Evaluating 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation is more problematic, because of inconsistencies between observational reference datasets over the Arctic that suffer of a sparse distribution of weather stations. In our study, we additionally investigated the effect of large-scale spectral nudging (SN) on the hindcast simulation driven by reanalyses. The analysis shows that SN is effective in reducing the spring MSLP bias, but otherwise it has little impact. We have also conducted another experiment in which the CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperature (SST) is empirically corrected and used as lower boundary conditions over the ocean for an atmosphere-only global simulation (AGCM), which in turn provides the atmospheric lateral boundary conditions to drive the CRCM5 simulation. This approach, so-called 3-step approach of dynamical downscaling (CGCM-AGCM-RCM), which had considerably improved the CRCM5 historical simulations over Africa, exhibits reduced impact over the Arctic domain. The most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

  9. Empirical Evidence from Kenya

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    2011-01-18

    Jan 18, 2011 ... Empirical results reveal that consumption of sugar in. Kenya varies ... experiences in trade in different regions of the world. Some studies ... To assess the relationship between domestic sugar retail prices and sugar sales in ...

  10. Measuring US Army medical evacuation: Metrics for performance improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvagno, Samuel M; Mabry, Robert L; Maddry, Joseph; Kharod, Chetan U; Walrath, Benjamin D; Powell, Elizabeth; Shackelford, Stacy

    2018-01-01

    The US Army medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) community has maintained a reputation for high levels of success in transporting casualties from the point of injury to definitive care. This work served as a demonstration project to advance a model of quality assurance surveillance and medical direction for prehospital MEDEVAC providers within the Joint Trauma System. A retrospective interrupted time series analysis using prospectively collected data was performed as a process improvement project. Records were reviewed during two distinct periods: 2009 and 2014 to 2015. MEDEVAC records were matched to outcomes data available in the Department of Defense Trauma Registry. Abstracted deidentified data were reviewed for specific outcomes, procedures, and processes of care. Descriptive statistics were applied as appropriate. A total of 1,008 patients were included in this study. Nine quality assurance metrics were assessed. These metrics were: airway management, management of hypoxemia, compliance with a blood transfusion protocol, interventions for hypotensive patients, quality of battlefield analgesia, temperature measurement and interventions, proportion of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients with hypoxemia and/or hypotension, proportion of traumatic brain injury patients with an appropriate assessment, and proportion of missing data. Overall survival in the subset of patients with outcomes data available in the Department of Defense Trauma Registry was 97.5%. The data analyzed for this study suggest overall high compliance with established tactical combat casualty care guidelines. In the present study, nearly 7% of patients had at least one documented oxygen saturation of less than 90%, and 13% of these patients had no documentation of any intervention for hypoxemia, indicating a need for training focus on airway management for hypoxemia. Advances in battlefield analgesia continued to evolve over the period when data for this study was collected. Given the inherent high

  11. CT guided stereotactic evacuation for hypertensive intracerebral hematoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Hideo

    1990-01-01

    Sixty-one cases of hypertensive intracerebral hematoma were evacuated by CT guided stereotactic method. The operation was performed in the CT room under general anesthesia using the KOMAI-NAKAJIMA STEREOTACTIC DEVICE. This instrument has a micromanipulater that can be used for various kinds of stereotactic procedures. Three dimensional position of the target point (aspiration point of the hematoma) was determined on the film obtained from CT scanning of the patient in the stereotactic system. If the hematoma was small, the target point was enough to be one point at the center of the hematoma, but in case of the large hematoma, several target points were given according to the shape of hematoma. The probe, ordinarily a steel tube 4 mm in outer diameter, was inserted through brain to the target point and the hematoma was aspirated through a silicon tube connected to a vacuum system. Among 61 cases examined, 30 cases of thalamic hemorrhage were operated upon and 36 cases were not operated. They were classified according to the volume of hematoma into 3 groups as follows: A=less than 10 ml, B=11-25 ml, C=more than 25 ml. The operated cases were compared with the non operated cases on the improvement of consciousness in each group. In the A group, the operated patients in the level I recovered more slowly than the non operated patients, but in the level II patients, this was reversed. In the B group, the operated patients improved more quickly except the level I patients. In the C group, almost all of non operated patients died. Thus, this operation was very useful in improving consciousness of level II or III patients independent of hematoma volume. It accelerated the recovery of motor function in the level I. This non inversive technique is considered effective for the removal of deep intracerebral hematoma. (author)

  12. EVOLVING AN EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY DOR DETERMINING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The uniqueness of this approach, is that it can be applied to any forest or dynamic feature on the earth, and can enjoy universal application as well. KEY WORDS: Evolving empirical methodology, innovative mathematical model, appropriate interval, remote sensing, forest environment planning and management. Global Jnl ...

  13. Study on the influence of smoke and exit signs on fire evacuation - Analysis of evacuation experiments in a real and virtual hotel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kobes, M.; Helsloot, I.; Vries, de B.; Post, J.G.; Oberije, N.; Groenewegen, K.

    2010-01-01

    Human behaviour in fires is mainly studied by incident evaluations and real-life experiments, such as unannounced evacuation drills. The possibilities of virtual reality for studying human behaviour in fires are so far hardly adopted by researchers. Nevertheless, the application of a behavioural

  14. A large scale evacuation. Tasks of evacuator. Collapse of medical system at the time of areal indication for large scale indoor refuge and problems for restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

    2012-01-01

    About the evacuation from disasters of quake/tsunami on Mar. 11, 2011, and Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident (Mar. 12-15), described are its social background, influence on the local society, medicare and works of medical staff. The disaster immediately blocked means of communication and transportation in Minamisoma City, and the Japan government indicated the indoor refuge of residents in the zone at 3 km distance from the Plant, then at 20 km on 12th and 30 km on 15th. About 123 thousands residents nearby had to evacuate after all: the largest scale of evacuation by the nuclear accident in Japan. Author's Minamisoma Citizens' Hospital (MCH) was located at 23 km from the Plant. Residents could know about the government indications through various media before their official announcements, and many had begun to evacuate. MCH accepted >100 victims, and measured their contamination as well as the ambient dose, using GM counter from 12th. The highest dose was 16 mc-Sv/h on 20th. Following the hydrogen explosion of no.3 reactor on 14th, residents were bewildered by the indication of indoor refuge, which impacted social activities like stoppage of commerce and brought about residents' mental conflict and solitary. Movement of all 107 hospitalized patients to neighboring facilities in Niigata prefecture started on 18th and actually completed on 20th with help from Self Defense Force. Children, pregnant women and certain patients were prohibited to enter the newly defined emergent evacuation preparation (EEP) zone on Apr. 11, within 30 km afar from the Plant, which inhibited the areal restoration and medicare. At present that 1.5 years have passed since the disaster, the number of medical stuff is quite insufficient near the old EEP zone. There, now 2/3 of population before the disaster are beginning their life, and most are elderly, suggesting the necessity of rearrangement of medical systems which were seemingly once collapsed. (T.T.)

  15. EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES ON DIFFICULTY OF EVACUATION FROM UNDERGROUND SPACES UNDER INUNDATED SITUATIONS USING REAL SCALE MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Yasuyuki; Ishigaki, Taisuke; Toda, Keiichi; Nakagawa, Hajime

    Many urbanized cities in Japan are located in alluvial plains, and the vulnerability of urbanized areas to flood disaster is highlighted by flood attacks due to heavy rain fall or typhoons. Underground spaces located in the urbanized area are flood-prone areas, and the intrusion of flood watar into underground space inflicted severe damages on urban functions and infrastructures. In a similar way, low-lying areas like "bowl-shaped" depression and underpasses under highway and railroad bridges are also prone to floods. The underpasses are common sites of accidents of submerged vehicles, and severe damage including human damage occasionally occurs under flooding conditions. To reduce the damage due to inundation in underground space, needless to say, early evacuation is one of the most important countermeasures. This paper shows some experimental results of evacuation tests from underground spaces under inundated situations. The difficulities of the evacuation from underground space has been investigated by using real scale models (door, staircase and vehicle), and the limit for safety evacuation is discussed. From the results, it is found that water depth of 0.3 - 0.4m would be a critical situation for the evacuation from underground space through staircases and door and that 0.7 - 0.8m deep on the ground would be also a critical situation for safety evacuation though the doors of the vehicle. These criteria have some possibility to vary according to different inundated situations, and they are also influenced by the individual variation like the difference of physical strength. This means that these criteria requires cautious stance to use although they show a sort of an index of the limitation for saftty evacuation from underground space.

  16. Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

    2017-01-01

    Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

  17. A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

    2015-01-01

    Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

  18. Teen Dating Violence and Substance Use Following a Natural Disaster: Does Evacuation Status Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temple, Jeff R.; van den Berg, Patricia; Thomas, John F. “Fred”; Northcutt, James; Thomas, Christopher; Freeman, Daniel H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives In September of 2008 the Texas coast was directly hit by Hurricane Ike. Galveston was flooded by 14 feet of storm surge, affecting most of the Island’s housing and infrastructure. The purpose of the present study is to examine whether youth who did not evacuate (11%), and subsequently were exposed to Hurricane Ike, exhibit higher rates of substance use and physical and sexual teen dating violence (both perpetration and victimization), relative to adolescents who did evacuate. Setting Public high school in southeast Texas that was in the direct path of Hurricane Ike. Participants An anonymous survey was administered in March 2009 to 1,048 high-school students who returned to Galveston post-storm (41% Hispanic, 23% African-American, 27% White). Main Outcome Measures Teen dating violence and substance use. Results Mantel-Haenszel odds ratios, adjusting for age and ethnicity, were computed. Compared to boys who evacuated, non-evacuating boys were more likely to perpetrate physical dating violence and sexual assault, and to be a victim of sexual assault. Non-evacuating boys and girls were more likely than those who did evacuate to report recent use of excessive alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine. Conclusions School personnel, medical personnel, and mental health service providers should consider screening for evacuation status in seeking to identify those adolescents who most need services after a natural disaster. Further, in addition to addressing internalized emotions and psychological symptoms associated with experiencing trauma, intervention programs should focus on reducing externalized behavior such as substance use and teen dating violence. PMID:22010597

  19. Empirical Essays on Office Market Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G.J. Jennen (Maarten)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractOffice buildings are a major investment vehicle, provide a working environment for numerous employees across the globe and determine the skyline of major cities. Put differently: office buildings matter. This dissertation consists of six studies and focuses on office buildings from a

  20. An Empirical Investigation of Household Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Vicky Barham; Rose Anne Devlin

    2003-01-01

    Using a Canadian micro data set, this paper uses econometric techniques to investigate the impact of public goods and public policy on the decisions to marry and divorce. Among other things, we find that public goods (home ownership, presence of children in the home, shiftwork) have a clear impact on the probability of divorce. From a policy perspective, we examine how the introduction of the 1997 Child Support Guidelines affects household formation and dissolution. While their impact on marr...

  1. Gas dynamic laser device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Born, G.

    1975-01-01

    The gas dynamic laser device is provided with an expansion chamber arranged between a heating chamber for the CO-gas and the resonance chamber. The expansion chamber is initially evacuated for producing a rarefaction wave. Between the heating chamber and the expansion chamber there are arranged rapid release means such as a valve or a diaphragm. Pressure recovering means are connected to the other side of the resonance chamber

  2. Early waning and evacuation from Tsunami, volcano, flood and other hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2012-12-01

    In reconsideration of the great sacrifice among the people, evacuation calls for evacuation through Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), local governments and Medias have been drastically changed after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. One of example is that JMA changed from forecasted concrete figure of tsunami height to one of 3 levels of tsunami height. A data shows the border between life and death is just 2 minutes of earlier evacuation in case of the 2011 tsunami. It shows how importance for communities to prompt early evacuation for survivals. However, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed there is no reliable trigger to prompt early evacuation to people in case of blackout under disasters, excluding effective education. The warning call was still complicated situations in Japan in July 2012. The 2012 Northern Kyusyu downpours was at worst around 110 millimeters an hour and casualties 30 in Japan. JMA learned from the last tsunami. In this time JMA informed to local governments as a waning call "Unexpected severe rains" to local governments. However, local governments did not notice the call from JMA in the same as usual informed way. One of the local government said "We were very busy for preparing for staffs. We looked at the necessary information of the water levels of rivers and flood prevention under emergent situation" (NHK 2012). This case shows JMA's evacuation calls from upstream to midstream of local government and downstream of communities started, however upstream calls have not engaged with midstream and communities yet. Calls of early warning from upstream is still a self-centered idea for both midstream and downstream. Finally JMA could not convey a crisis mentality to local government. The head of Oarai town independently decided to use the different warning call "Order townspersons to evacuate immediately" in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan from the other municipalities in 2011 though there was not such a manuals calls in Japan. This risk communication

  3. Influences of potential predictor variables on gastric evacuation in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. feeding on fish prey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2012-01-01

    of photoperiod and pre-experimental treatment of prey were also tested. Freshly killed A. tobianus were evacuated from the stomach of G. morhua at a rate similar to the value estimated from conspecifics kept deep-frozen and subsequently thawed prior to the evacuation experiment. The evacuation rate in G. morhua...... exposed to continuous light did not differ from the rate obtained from fish maintained under a 12L:12D photoperiod. The evacuation rates estimated from the latter fish in the dark and light periods, respectively, were likewise similar. These results indicate that the resistance of prey to the digestive...

  4. The simulation of sanitary objects evacuation: An example of hotel 'Radon' in Niška Banja

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Object evacuation is one of the most important, the most responsible and the most complex tasks for human safety in objects generally. This is especially important for objects with lot oh humans, such as health facilities, high residential objects, hotels, schools, etc. This is still an open and ongoing problem which can be confirmed by many injured people who were not evacuated in the disasters. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situation and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of Hotel Radon in Niška Banja, as one specific health facility with hardly moving and immobile patients.

  5. Empirical philosophy of science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagenknecht, Susann; Nersessian, Nancy J.; Andersen, Hanne

    2015-01-01

    A growing number of philosophers of science make use of qualitative empirical data, a development that may reconfigure the relations between philosophy and sociology of science and that is reminiscent of efforts to integrate history and philosophy of science. Therefore, the first part...... of this introduction to the volume Empirical Philosophy of Science outlines the history of relations between philosophy and sociology of science on the one hand, and philosophy and history of science on the other. The second part of this introduction offers an overview of the papers in the volume, each of which...... is giving its own answer to questions such as: Why does the use of qualitative empirical methods benefit philosophical accounts of science? And how should these methods be used by the philosopher?...

  6. Lessons learned from the total evacuation of a hospital after the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagawa, Youichi; Kondo, Hisayoshi; Okawa, Takashi; Ochi, Fumio

    The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes were a series of earthquakes that included a foreshock earthquake (magnitude 6.2) on April 14 and a main shock (magnitude 7.0) on April 16, 2016. A number of hospitals in Kumamoto were severely damaged by the two major earthquakes and required total evacuation. The authors retrospectively analyzed the activity data of the Disaster Medical Assistance Teams using the Emergency Medical Information System records to investigate the cases in which the total evacuation of a hospital was attempted following the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Total evacuation was attempted at 17 hospitals. The evacuation of one of these hospitals was canceled. Most of the hospital buildings were more than 20 years old. The danger of collapse was the most frequent reason for evacuation. Various transportation methods were employed, some of which involved the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force; no preventable deaths occurred during transportation. The hospitals must now be renovated to improve their earthquake resistance. The coordinated and combined use of military and civilian resources is beneficial and can significantly reduce human suffering in large-scale disasters.

  7. Social influence in a virtual tunnel fire--influence of conflicting information on evacuation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinateder, Max; Müller, Mathias; Jost, Michael; Mühlberger, Andreas; Pauli, Paul

    2014-11-01

    Evacuation from a smoke filled tunnel requires quick decision-making and swift action from the tunnel occupants. Technical installations such as emergency signage aim to guide tunnel occupants to the closest emergency exits. However, conflicting information may come from the behavior of other tunnel occupants. We examined if and how conflicting social information may affect evacuation in terms of delayed and/or inadequate evacuation decisions and behaviors. To this end, forty participants were repeatedly situated in a virtual reality smoke filled tunnel with an emergency exit visible to one side of the participants. Four social influence conditions were realized. In the control condition participants were alone in the tunnel, while in the other three experimental conditions a virtual agent (VA) was present. In the no-conflict condition, the VA moved to the emergency exit. In the active conflict condition, the VA moved in the opposite direction of the emergency exit. In the passive conflict condition, the VA stayed passive. Participants were less likely to move to the emergency exit in the conflict conditions compared to the no-conflict condition. Pre-movement and movement times in the passive conflict condition were significantly delayed compared to all other conditions. Participants moved the longest distances in the passive conflict condition. These results support the hypothesis that social influence affects evacuation behavior, especially passive behavior of others can thwart an evacuation to safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  8. Civilians under fire: evacuation behaviour in north Israel during the Second Lebanon War.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidron, David; Peleg, Kobi; Jaffe, Dena; Shenhar, Gili

    2010-10-01

    This paper seeks to understand evacuation behaviour in a case of spontaneous evacuation. During the Second Lebanon War of 2006, more than one-third of residents in north Israel spontaneously evacuated--the remainder stayed in situ. Using a telephone survey of 665 respondents residing in north Israel, we were able to characterise the behaviour of evacuees and non-evacuees. The main reasons cited for evacuating were fear of injury to self or family, the effect on children, inability to remain in a protective space, and family pressure. The main reasons cited for remaining at home were no suitable alternative, did not perceive a high level of danger, had to go to work, and there is no place like home. There were no significant differences with regard to most socio-demographic characteristics of the population. These findings should aid emergency managers in preparing the population for a future emergency and in engaging in effective dialogue with the population during an emergency on the evacuation option. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  9. Stoma management in a tropical country: colostomy irrigation versus natural evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, A F; Yunos, A B

    1999-11-01

    People with ostomies in Singapore were initially resistant to colostomy irrigation. This study, a prospective crossover study of 26 patients who underwent abdominoperineal resection, compared colostomy irrigation with the natural evacuation method. During the colostomy-irrigation phase of the study, all 26 patients reported an improvement in continence and fewer problems with sleep, sex, and skin complications compared to the natural-evacuation phase. The study also found a reduction in monthly expenses with colostomy irrigation compared to natural evacuation. Patient satisfaction scores were also superior during the colostomy-irrigation phase. This difference in satisfaction scores was less marked in those who were more than 1-year postsurgery than in those who were less than 1-year postsurgery. The difference in satisfaction between colostomy irrigation and natural evacuation scores was statistically significant in the group that was less than 1-year postsurgery, but not in the group that was more than 1-year postsurgery. The study concluded that colostomy irrigation after abdominoperineal resection is superior to natural evacuation in terms of cost and patient satisfaction and should be introduced soon after surgery.

  10. Visitors’ awareness of the tsunami evacuation plan in Pasar Raya Padang, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemal, B. M.; Yosritzal; Purnawan; Putra, H.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents an investigation into the visitors’ awareness of the tsunami evacuation plan at Pasar Raya Padang, a traditional market at the central business district of Padang City, Indonesia. This study has been motivated by the fact that Pasar Raya Padang is the largest traditional market in West Sumatera and visited by many visitors from various origins. Pasar Raya Padang is chosen because it is located at a tsunami prone area, but local government managed to keep businesses in the area running and attract visitors. The awareness of the people in the market would be crucial to increase the possibility to safe their life during an evacuation. As much as 500 respondents were interviewed during daytime in the market. The study found that most of the visitors are not aware of the tsunami evacuation plan in the area. Local government is suggested to develop standard procedure for the evacuation, to place more sign and make it more visible for most of the visitors and do evacuation simulations periodically.

  11. A robust optimization model for distribution and evacuation in the disaster response phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fereiduni, Meysam; Shahanaghi, Kamran

    2017-03-01

    Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, affect thousands of people and can cause enormous financial loss. Therefore, an efficient response immediately following a natural disaster is vital to minimize the aforementioned negative effects. This research paper presents a network design model for humanitarian logistics which will assist in location and allocation decisions for multiple disaster periods. At first, a single-objective optimization model is presented that addresses the response phase of disaster management. This model will help the decision makers to make the most optimal choices in regard to location, allocation, and evacuation simultaneously. The proposed model also considers emergency tents as temporary medical centers. To cope with the uncertainty and dynamic nature of disasters, and their consequences, our multi-period robust model considers the values of critical input data in a set of various scenarios. Second, because of probable disruption in the distribution infrastructure (such as bridges), the Monte Carlo simulation is used for generating related random numbers and different scenarios; the p-robust approach is utilized to formulate the new network. The p-robust approach can predict possible damages along pathways and among relief bases. We render a case study of our robust optimization approach for Tehran's plausible earthquake in region 1. Sensitivity analysis' experiments are proposed to explore the effects of various problem parameters. These experiments will give managerial insights and can guide DMs under a variety of conditions. Then, the performances of the "robust optimization" approach and the "p-robust optimization" approach are evaluated. Intriguing results and practical insights are demonstrated by our analysis on this comparison.

  12. Empire vs. Federation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravier, Magali

    2011-01-01

    The article discusses the concepts of federation and empire in the context of the European Union (EU). Even if these two concepts are not usually contrasted to one another, the article shows that they refer to related type of polities. Furthermore, they can be used at a time because they shed light...... on different and complementary aspects of the European integration process. The article concludes that the EU is at the crossroads between federation and empire and may remain an ‘imperial federation’ for several decades. This could mean that the EU is on the verge of transforming itself to another type...

  13. Empirical comparison of theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Opp, K.D.; Wippler, R.

    1990-01-01

    The book represents the first, comprehensive attempt to take an empirical approach for comparative assessment of theories in sociology. The aims, problems, and advantages of the empirical approach are discussed in detail, and the three theories selected for the purpose of this work are explained. Their comparative assessment is performed within the framework of several research projects, which among other subjects also investigate the social aspects of the protest against nuclear power plants. The theories analysed in this context are the theory of mental incongruities and that of the benefit, and their efficiency in explaining protest behaviour is compared. (orig./HSCH) [de

  14. Empirical Music Aesthetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grund, Cynthia M.

    The toolbox for empirically exploring the ways that artistic endeavors convey and activate meaning on the part of performers and audiences continues to expand. Current work employing methods at the intersection of performance studies, philosophy, motion capture and neuroscience to better understand...... musical performance and reception is inspired by traditional approaches within aesthetics, but it also challenges some of the presuppositions inherent in them. As an example of such work I present a research project in empirical music aesthetics begun last year and of which I am a team member....

  15. Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Lawrence E

    2001-01-01

    Beginning text presents complete theoretical treatment of mechanical model systems and deals with technological applications. Topics include introduction to calculus of vectors, particle motion, dynamics of particle systems and plane rigid bodies, technical applications in plane motions, theory of mechanical vibrations, and more. Exercises and answers appear in each chapter.

  16. Empirical correlation among the dynamic elastic constants and the waves P and S velocities in rocks; Correlaciones empiricas entre las constantes elasticas dinamicas y las velocidades de las ondas P y S de las rocas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contreras Lopez, Enrique [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1995-12-31

    Departing from the analysis of a data base on the velocities of the compression waves (V{sub p}) and the transverse waves (V{sub s}) in a group of 97 specimens of sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic rocks, the existence of four types of empirical correlation very well entailed between the dynamic elastic constants and the velocities V{sub p} and V{sub s}. These correlation allow the estimation with a very close approximation the elastic dynamic constants without the need of having available of the complete set of data (V{sub p}, V{sub s} and total density) that is normally required for its determination. The identified correlation is mathematically expressed by means of adjustment equations that reproduce in all of the cases the experimental values with a standard error of estimation within 10%, for the universe of rocks studied and with much less error for different specific lithological groups. The application methodologies of the correlation found for different cases of practical interest, are described. [Espanol] A partir del analisis de una base de datos experimentales sobre la velocidad de las ondas compresionales (V{sub p}) y de las ondas transversales (V{sub s}) de un conjunto de 97 especimenes de rocas sedimentarias, igneas y metamorficas, se identifica la existencia de cuatro tipos de correlaciones empiricas muy bien comportadas entre las constantes elasticas dinamicas y las velocidades V{sub p} y V{sub s}. Estas correlaciones permiten estimar con muy buena aproximacion las constantes elasticas dinamicas de las rocas sin tener que disponer del conjunto completo de datos (V{sub p}, V{sub s} y densidad total) que normalmente se requieren para su determinacion. Las correlaciones identificadas se expresan matematicamente mediante ecuaciones de ajuste que reproducen en todos los casos los valores experimentales con un error estandar de estimacion dentro de 10% para el universo de las rocas estudiadas, y con mucho menor error para diferentes grupos litologicos

  17. Empirical correlation among the dynamic elastic constants and the waves P and S velocities in rocks; Correlaciones empiricas entre las constantes elasticas dinamicas y las velocidades de las ondas P y S de las rocas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contreras Lopez, Enrique [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1996-12-31

    Departing from the analysis of a data base on the velocities of the compression waves (V{sub p}) and the transverse waves (V{sub s}) in a group of 97 specimens of sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic rocks, the existence of four types of empirical correlation very well entailed between the dynamic elastic constants and the velocities V{sub p} and V{sub s}. These correlation allow the estimation with a very close approximation the elastic dynamic constants without the need of having available of the complete set of data (V{sub p}, V{sub s} and total density) that is normally required for its determination. The identified correlation is mathematically expressed by means of adjustment equations that reproduce in all of the cases the experimental values with a standard error of estimation within 10%, for the universe of rocks studied and with much less error for different specific lithological groups. The application methodologies of the correlation found for different cases of practical interest, are described. [Espanol] A partir del analisis de una base de datos experimentales sobre la velocidad de las ondas compresionales (V{sub p}) y de las ondas transversales (V{sub s}) de un conjunto de 97 especimenes de rocas sedimentarias, igneas y metamorficas, se identifica la existencia de cuatro tipos de correlaciones empiricas muy bien comportadas entre las constantes elasticas dinamicas y las velocidades V{sub p} y V{sub s}. Estas correlaciones permiten estimar con muy buena aproximacion las constantes elasticas dinamicas de las rocas sin tener que disponer del conjunto completo de datos (V{sub p}, V{sub s} y densidad total) que normalmente se requieren para su determinacion. Las correlaciones identificadas se expresan matematicamente mediante ecuaciones de ajuste que reproducen en todos los casos los valores experimentales con un error estandar de estimacion dentro de 10% para el universo de las rocas estudiadas, y con mucho menor error para diferentes grupos litologicos

  18. Evidence from dynamic integrated proctography to redefine anismus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J P; Womack, N R; Hallan, R I; Thorpe, A C; Williams, N S

    1992-11-01

    The role of anismus in the aetiology of defective rectal evacuation was investigated by dynamic integrated proctography in 20 controls and 71 constipated patients. Normal parameters were defined and compared between 21 constipated patients with poor evacuation during proctography ( 90 per cent of contrast evacuated; group 2). Nine patients in group 1 failed to evacuate. Radiological abnormalities of the rectum were recorded in all groups but obstructed evacuation was not observed. Anismus (defined as a recruitment of puborectalis electromyogram (EMG) activity of > 50 per cent) was significantly more common in group 1 than group 2 patients (14 of 21 versus 12 of 50, P 50 cmH2O compared with two in group 2 (P anismus and inability to raise intrarectal pressure, which may combine to cause defective evacuation. EMG recruitment alone is insufficient to diagnose anismus. Definition should be based on three criteria: demonstration of puborectalis EMG recruitment of > 50 per cent; evidence of an adequate level of intrarectal pressure (> 50 cmH2O) on straining; and presence of defective evacuation.

  19. Support system development for evacuation plan decision in nuclear plant disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, Masahiko; Takayama, Jun-ichi; Nakayama, Sho-ichiro; Ushiba, Takashi

    2011-01-01

    These days, our interest in nuclear plant accidents has increased, and civic actions for them have also been activated. Therefore, improvement of the disaster prevention planning to nuclear plant accidents is requested. In this study, we developed a microscopic traffic simulation system for evacuation plan near the nuclear plant as a system which supports to examine the disaster prevention planning, and applied the system to Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant area. Furthermore, the risk of each region near the nuclear plant disaster from the viewpoint of wind direction and the population was considered, the importance of each evacuation simulation was examined. As a result, we found that the present plan Kashiwazaki-Kariwa made has the problem on evacuation routes and others. (author)

  20. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  1. Case report: treatment of subdural hematoma in the emergency department utilizing the subdural evacuating port system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asfora, Wilson T; Klapper, Hendrik B

    2013-08-01

    Patients with acute or chronic subdural hematomas may present with rapidly deteriorating neurological function and are at risk for irreversible brainstem injury. In such cases, rapid surgical intervention is required to evacuate the hematoma and reverse critically elevated intracranial pressure. A variety of surgical drainage methods are in existence, none of which are clearly superior to the others. This report presents the case of a 74-year-old woman who suffered an acute-on-chronic subdural hematoma which was evacuated in the emergency department utilizing the subdural evacuating port system (SEPS). The SEPS provides for a minimally invasive technique to drain subdural hematomas and is advantageous in that it can be performed at the bedside. The SEPS is relatively simple to use and may be especially useful to emergency department staff in outlying areas where there is a shortage of neurosurgical coverage.

  2. [Organization of anesthesia management and advanced life support at military medical evacuation levels].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shchegolev, A V; Petrakov, V A; Savchenko, I F

    2014-07-01

    Anesthesia management and advanced life support for the severely wounded personnel at military medical evacuation levels in armed conflict (local war) is time-consuming and resource-requiring task. One of the mathematical modeling methods was used to evaluate capabilities of anesthesia and intensive care units at tactical level. Obtained result allows us to tell that there is a need to make several system changes of the existing system of anesthesia management and advanced life support for the severely wounded personnel at military medical evacuation levels. In addition to increasing number of staff of anesthesiology-critical care during the given period of time another solution should be the creation of an early evacuation to a specialized medical care level by special means while conducting intensive monitoring and treatment.

  3. Mother Nature versus human nature: public compliance with evacuation and quarantine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuell, Mary-Elise; Cukor, Jeffrey

    2011-04-01

    Effectively controlling the spread of contagious illnesses has become a critical focus of disaster planning. It is likely that quarantine will be a key part of the overall public health strategy utilised during a pandemic, an act of bioterrorism or other emergencies involving contagious agents. While the United States lacks recent experience of large-scale quarantines, it has considerable accumulated experience of large-scale evacuations. Risk perception, life circumstance, work-related issues, and the opinions of influential family, friends and credible public spokespersons all play a role in determining compliance with an evacuation order. Although the comparison is not reported elsewhere to our knowledge, this review of the principal factors affecting compliance with evacuations demonstrates many similarities with those likely to occur during a quarantine. Accurate identification and understanding of barriers to compliance allows for improved planning to protect the public more effectively. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  4. The Application Modular Floating Pontoon to Support Floods Disaster Evacuation System in Heavy Populated Residential Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Fauzan Zakki

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available During floods disaster in the heavy populated residential area, the lack of existing life saving appliances system such as rubber boat and wooden boat were not able to evacuate the disaster victims spontaneously in mass. The condition might be explained since the rubber boat and wooden boat have limited occupant capacity. Based on the conditions, the main objectives of the research are focused on the evaluation of the application of modular floating pontoon as multipurpose floating equipment to support floods disaster evacuation process. The investigation of the modular floating pontoon performance such as hydrostatics characteristics, the equilibrium condition and the intact stability was studied using strip theory and Krylov’s method. Furthermore, the strength analysis of the modular floating pontoon structure was calculated using finite element method. The results show that the modular floating pontoon is reliable to support the evacuation process.

  5. Empirical research through design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keyson, D.V.; Bruns, M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the empirical research through design method (ERDM), which differs from current approaches to research through design by enforcing the need for the designer, after a series of pilot prototype based studies, to a-priori develop a number of testable interaction design hypothesis

  6. Essays in empirical microeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Péter, A.N.

    2016-01-01

    The empirical studies in this thesis investigate various factors that could affect individuals' labor market, family formation and educational outcomes. Chapter 2 focuses on scheduling as a potential determinant of individuals' productivity. Chapter 3 looks at the role of a family factor on

  7. Worship, Reflection, Empirical Research

    OpenAIRE

    Ding Dong,

    2012-01-01

    In my youth, I was a worshipper of Mao Zedong. From the latter stage of the Mao Era to the early years of Reform and Opening, I began to reflect on Mao and the Communist Revolution he launched. In recent years I’ve devoted myself to empirical historical research on Mao, seeking the truth about Mao and China’s modern history.

  8. Trade and Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bang, Peter Fibiger

    2007-01-01

    This articles seeks to establish a new set of organizing concepts for the analysis of the Roman imperial economy from Republic to late antiquity: tributary empire, port-folio capitalism and protection costs. Together these concepts explain better economic developments in the Roman world than the...

  9. Empirically sampling Universal Dependencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schluter, Natalie; Agic, Zeljko

    2017-01-01

    Universal Dependencies incur a high cost in computation for unbiased system development. We propose a 100% empirically chosen small subset of UD languages for efficient parsing system development. The technique used is based on measurements of model capacity globally. We show that the diversity o...

  10. A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yu; Wang, Weijie; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Yanfeng; Yang, Yuanjian

    2014-01-01

    Conducting a real aircraft evacuation trial is oftentimes unaffordable as it is extremely expensive and may cause severe injury to participants. Simulation models as an alternative have been used to overcome the aforementioned issues in recent years. This paper proposes a new simulation model for emergency evacuation of civil aircraft. Its unique features and advantages over the existing models are twofold: (1) passengers' critical physical characteristics, e.g. waist size, gender, age, and disabilities, which impact the movement and egress time of individual evacuee from a statistical viewpoint, are taken into account in the new model. (2) Improvements are made to enhance the accuracy of the simulation model from three aspects. First, the staggered mesh discretization method together with the agent-based approach is utilized to simulate movements of individual passengers in an emergency evacuation process. Second, each node discretized to represent cabin space in the new model can contain more than one passenger if they are moving in the same direction. Finally, each individual passenger is able to change his/her evacuation route in a real-time manner based upon the distance from the current position to the target exit and the queue length. The effectiveness of the proposed simulation model is demonstrated on Boeing 767-300 aircraft. - Highlights: • A new simulation model of aircraft emergency evacuation is developed. • Some critical physical characteristics of passengers', e.g. waist size, gender, age, and disabilities, are taken into account in the new model. • An agent-based approach along with a multi-level fine network representation is used. • Passengers are able to change their evacuation routes in a real-time manner based upon distance and length of queue

  11. Assessing the vulnerability of the evacuation emergency plan: the case of the El Hierro, Canary Island, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, J. M.; Garcia, A.; Llinares, A.; Lopez, P.; Ortinz, R.

    2012-04-01

    On July 17, 2011 an unrest was detected in the El Hierro island. A serretian submarine eruption started on October 10th in the southern area of the island, two miles away from La Restinga village. The analysis and interpretation of seismic and deformation data show a large volume of intruded magma. These data also show a high probability of a new vent opening. One of the most complex volcanic hazard scenarios is a new open vent in the El Golfo Valley, in the north slope of the island, where more than 5,000 people live. In this area there are only two possible terrestrial evacuation routes: 1) HI-1 road NE direction, the fastest but most vulnerable one, very near a 1,000 meters height cliff and through a 2 km tunnel with a structural deficiency that had to be closed during high energy periods of seismic activity; and 2) HI-1 road SW direction, a mountain road with many curves, frequent small landslides and fog. The Emergency Plan of the island takes into account the entire evacuation of El Golfo Valley in case of eruption. This process will be carried out by means of an assisted evacuation. The evacuees will be transported to a temporally regrouping shelter outside the valley to organize the transport to Tenerife Island. Only those people who have a second residence or relatives outside the affected area will be able to remain in the island. The evacuation time estimated by authorities for the entire evacuation of El Golfo Valley is of about 4 hours. This is extremely low considering: the complexity of the area; the number of evacuees; the lack of preparedness by the population; and adverse weather conditions. To evaluate the Evacuation Plan vulnerability, a series of evacuation scenarios have been simulated: self-evacuation; assisted evacuation; both terrestrial evacuation routes. The warning time, the response time by the population and the evacuation time have been taken into account.

  12. Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Schmidtlein, Mathew; Schelling, John; Frazier, T.

    2016-01-01

    Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

  13. Percutaneous evacuation for treatment of subdural hematoma and outcome in 28 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostofi, Keyvan; Marnet, Dominique

    2011-01-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma is a frequently encountered entity in neurosurgery in particular in elderly patients. There in a high variance in the treatment in literature. We report our experience of percutaneous evacuation of chronic subdural hematoma in 28 patients. From January 2007 to July 2009, 28 patients underwent percutaneous evacuation. 27 of the 28 patients (96.4%) became asymptomatic or improved clinically. Six weeks later, the scan showed the hematoma had completely disappeared in 18 of the cases. We did not have any postoperative infection. Treatment of chronic subdural hematoma using a percutaneous operative technique is a minimally invasive method with sufficient outcome and a therapeutic alternative to the craniotomy.

  14. Providing many results of evacuation simulation around a nuclear power plant and its speedy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Shoji; Nagase, Shinichiro; Ino, Masanori

    1990-01-01

    According to the peculiar situation around nuclear power plant in Japan, many results of evacuation simulation in that the public buses and family cars were used together have being obtained by a super computer. These were comprised of the time dependence of the number of residents and vehicles at the exit and starting points, and traffic jam datas at each intersection on the evacuation roads. Also, exposed dose for each group of the residents were calculated in case of Xe and I-131 release. The retrieval system was applied for selecting the indispensable data from many results, and in order to see data on the display screen, the graphic system was provided. (author)

  15. Hypertensive thalamic hematoma treated by CT stereotactic evacuation (with two cases reports)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hongsheng; Zhu Fengqing

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To investigate new surgical method to treat hypertensive thalamic hematoma. Methods: Two medial-degree coma patients with hypertensive thalamic hematoma were treated by CT stereotactic evacuation. Results: One week after operation the two patients regained consciousness. The function of paraplegic appendage restored partly, and one patient could take care of himself. Conclusion: CT stereotactic evacuation to treat hypertensive thalamic hematoma has the advantages of small trauma, little complication and good clinical results. The authors suggest that it be selected firstly in treating hypertensive thalamic hematoma

  16. Simulation of Evacuated Tube Collector and Storage of Hybrid Air-conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Ahmed Abdulhussain

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The CFD transient simulation of superheating the refrigerant R410 through the heat exchange with the evacuated tube water heating system of the hybrid split air conditioner that is subjected to solar radiation of constant intensity with the contribution of fan accelerated air is performed by the ANSYS-CFX code. The comparison with experimental work showed a minimum percentage error 8% of the predicted refrigerant evaporative heat transfer with storage tank horizontal tubing. In addition, the results denoted high absorption rate for the evacuated tubes, reducing highly reversed heat transmission for the circulated water. 

  17. The Swedish study of Irrigation-fluid temperature in the evacuation of Chronic subdural hematoma (SIC!)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartley, Andreas; Jakola, Asgeir S; Bartek, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is one of the most common conditions encountered in neurosurgical practice. Recurrence, observed in 5-30% of patients, is a major clinical problem. The temperature of the irrigation fluid used during evacuation of the hematoma might theoretically...... and health-related quality of life. DISCUSSION: Irrigation-fluid temperature might influence recurrence rates in the evacuation of chronic subdural hematomas. We present a study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial investigating our hypothesis that irrigation fluid at body temperature...

  18. Street Lighting Infrastructure Assessment Using Discriminant and GIS Method on Mount Merapi Evacuation Road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izdihar, R. P.; Maryono, M.; Widjonarko, W.; Rahayu, S.

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to assess street lighting infrastructure in rural-urban of Mount Merapi Evacuation road. Three evacuation road/corridor; Mriyan-Boyolali, Wonodoyo-Boyolali and Samiran-Boyolali are selected as case study. By using discriminant this study examine 6 variables namely type of lamp, physical component, height, time, power and cons consumption. In addition this study also using GIS method to assessing geographical feature as of previous result. According to the discriminant analysis, the characteristic of street lighting could be distinguished as two characteristic, while from the GIS assessment, the study found three characteristic of geographical street lighting feature.

  19. Results of psychosomatic screening of people having suffered from the Chernobyl accident and evacuated from the alienation area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bronskij, V.I.; Tolkanets, S.V.

    2000-01-01

    A psychosomatic screening of 105 persons evacuated from the alienation area was fulfilled. The received data were compared with those of migrants from areas from which people were evacuated later. Sociometric, psychometric, adaptive characteristics evidence of close relations between conditions of living and worsening of psychosomatic health. The tendency to a higher frequency of psychoorganic syndrome in that group was revealed

  20. Administering "Operation Pied Piper"--How the London County Council Prepared for the Evacuation of Its Schoolchildren 1938-1939

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartner, Niko

    2010-01-01

    In September 1939, two days before declaring war on Germany, the British government evacuated over half a million children from London to supposedly safer areas in the country. Schoolchildren went there with their teachers and infants with their mothers. Immediately after the event (and ever since) the impact of the evacuation on the children--the…

  1. 76 FR 55570 - Per Diem Payments for the Care Provided to Eligible Veterans Evacuated From a State Home as a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... relocated due to emergency. (a) Definition of emergency. For the purposes of this section, emergency means... Provided to Eligible Veterans Evacuated From a State Home as a Result of an Emergency AGENCY: Department of... for veterans who have been evacuated from a State home as a result of an emergency. Per diem is the...

  2. 33 CFR 150.506 - When must the operator service inflatable lifesaving appliances and marine evacuation systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... inflatable lifesaving appliances and marine evacuation systems? 150.506 Section 150.506 Navigation and...: OPERATIONS Emergency and Specialty Equipment Inflatable Lifesaving Appliances § 150.506 When must the operator service inflatable lifesaving appliances and marine evacuation systems? (a) The operator must...

  3. Autobiography After Empire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasch, Astrid

    of the collective, but insufficient attention has been paid to how individuals respond to such narrative changes. This dissertation examines the relationship between individual and collective memory at the end of empire through analysis of 13 end of empire autobiographies by public intellectuals from Australia......Decolonisation was a major event of the twentieth century, redrawing maps and impacting on identity narratives around the globe. As new nations defined their place in the world, the national and imperial past was retold in new cultural memories. These developments have been studied at the level......, the Anglophone Caribbean and Zimbabwe. I conceive of memory as reconstructive and social, with individual memory striving to make sense of the past in the present in dialogue with surrounding narratives. By examining recurring tropes in the autobiographies, like colonial education, journeys to the imperial...

  4. Gazprom: the new empire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillemoles, A.; Lazareva, A.

    2008-01-01

    Gazprom is conquering the world. The Russian industrial giant owns the hugest gas reserves and enjoys the privilege of a considerable power. Gazprom edits journals, owns hospitals, airplanes and has even built cities where most of the habitants work for him. With 400000 workers, Gazprom represents 8% of Russia's GDP. This inquiry describes the history and operation of this empire and show how its has become a masterpiece of the government's strategy of russian influence reconquest at the world scale. Is it going to be a winning game? Are the corruption affairs and the expected depletion of resources going to weaken the empire? The authors shade light on the political and diplomatic strategies that are played around the crucial dossier of the energy supply. (J.S.)

  5. Usability and Visual Communication for Southern California Tsunami Evacuation Information: The importance of information design in disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaenichen, C.; Schandler, S.; Wells, M.; Danielsen, T.

    2015-12-01

    Evacuation behavior, including participation and response, is rarely an individual and isolated process and the outcomes are usually systemic. Ineffective evacuation information can easily attribute to delayed evacuation response. Delays increase demands on already extended emergency personal, increase the likelihood of traffic congestion, and can cause harm to self and property. From an information design perspective, addressing issues in cognitive recall and emergency psychology, this case study examines evacuation messaging including written, audio, and visual presentation of information, and describes the application of design principles and role of visual communication for Southern California tsunami evacuation outreach. The niche of this project is the inclusion of cognitive processing as the driving influence when making formal design decisions and measurable data from a 4-year cognitive recall study to support the solution. Image included shows a tsunami evacaution map before and after the redesign.

  6. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOWS ON INCLINED ROAD DURING EVACUATION PROCESS OF THE VOLCANO DISASTER WITH FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richasanty Septima S

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The research in this thesis was done to examine the model of traffic flow of volcanic disaster evacuation path for uphill and downhill roads. The assessment was focused on the area of disaster evacuation path from the Pante Raya Bener Meriah intersection to Takengon. This model is assessed for two different types of time when which a disaster occurs; the disaster occurred at night and the disaster occurred during the day, especially during peak hours (working hours. The model was developed with attention to the exixtence of inflow and outflow along the evacuation route. Furthermore, the model obtained is solved numerically by using finite difference method. The chosen approach of this method is upwind scheme with time and space steps using forward difference and backward difference. The solution of this model in the form of simulated vehicle density along evacuation pathways. The research conducted is in the form of a model of traffic flow on evacuation paths and restricted to the inflow and outflow without alternative path as well as the conditions of the road which are uphill and downhill, showed a high density of vehicles either at night or during the day. Uphill road conditions resulted in decreased vehicle speed and vehicle density will increase, while downhill road conditions resulted in increased vehicle speed and vehicle density will decrease, meaning that the road conditions which are uphill and downhill will greatly affect the process of evacuation. Degree vehicles of evacuation efficiency occuring at night without an alternative pathway produces a high efficiency so that it can be interpreted that the evacuation process in the evening was successful and runs better than the evacuation process during the day, and this is caused by the existence of vehicles on the road evacuation process started thus affecting the efficiency levels.

  7. Means of escape provisions and evacuation simulation of public building in Malaysia and Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Taib, Nooriati; Ying, Choo Siew

    2017-10-01

    The Uniform Building By-law 1984 of Malaysia is the legal document governing fire safety requirements in buildings. Its prescriptive nature has made the requirements out dated from the viewpoint of current performance based approach in most developed countries. The means of escape provisions is a critical requirement to safeguard occupants' safety in fire especially in public buildings. As stipulated in the UBBL 1984, the means of escape provisions includes sufficient escape routes, travel distance, protection of escape routes, etc. designated as means to allow occupants to escape within a safe period of time. This research aims at investigating the effectiveness of those provisions in public buildings during evacuation process involving massive crowd during emergencies. This research includes a scenario-based study on evacuation processes using two software i.e. PyroSim, a crowd modelling software to conduct smoke study and Pathfinder to stimulate evacuation model of building in Malaysia and Singapore as comparative study. The results show that the buildings used as case study were designed according to Malaysian UBBL 1984 and Singapore Firecode, 2013 respectively provide relative safe means of escape. The simulations of fire and smoke and coupled with simulation of evacuation have demonstrated that although there are adequate exits designated according to fire requirements, the impact of the geometry of atriums on the behavior of fire and smoke have significant effect on escape time especially for unfamiliar user of the premises.

  8. 14 CFR 135.271 - Helicopter hospital emergency medical evacuation service (HEMES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Helicopter hospital emergency medical....271 Helicopter hospital emergency medical evacuation service (HEMES). (a) No certificate holder may... certificate holder may assign a helicopter flight crewmember, and no flight crewmember may accept an...

  9. A new desalination system using a combination of heat pipe, evacuated tube and parabolic trough collector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafari Mosleh, H.; Jahangiri Mamouri, S.; Shafii, M.B.; Hakim Sima, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new desalination uses a combination of heat pipe and parabolic trough collector. • A twin-glass evacuated tube is used to decrease the thermal losses from heat pipe. • Adding oil into the space between heat pipe and tube collector enhances the yield. • The yield and efficiency reach up to 0.933 kg/(m 2 h) and 65.2%, respectively. - Abstract: The solar collectors have been commonly used in desalination systems. Recent investigations show that the use of a linear parabolic trough collector in solar stills can improve the efficiency of a desalination system. In this work, a combination of a heat pipe and a twin-glass evacuated tube collector is utilized with a parabolic trough collector. Results show that the rate of production and efficiency can reach to 0.27 kg/(m 2 h) and 22.1% when aluminum conducting foils are used in the space between the heat pipe and the twin-glass evacuated tube collector to transfer heat from the tube collector to the heat pipe. When oil is used as a medium for the transfer of heat, filling the space between heat pipe and twin-glass evacuated tube collector, the production and efficiency can increase to 0.933 kg/(m 2 h) and 65.2%, respectively

  10. 77 FR 19069 - Airworthiness Directives; Goodrich Evacuation Systems Approved Under Technical Standard Order...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-30

    ... emergency evacuation, which could result in inadequate buoyancy to support the raft's passenger capacity... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 [Docket No. FAA-2011... approved under TSO TSO-C69b and installed on Model A330-200 and -300 series airplanes, Model A340-200 and...

  11. Concentration of radiocesium in rice, vegetables, and fruits cultivated in evacuation area at Okuma town, Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohse, Kenji; Kitayama, Kyo; Kanno, Akira; Suzuki, Chika; Kawatsu, Kencho; Tsukada, Hirofumi; Suenaga, Seiichi; Matsumoto, Kiyoyuki

    2013-01-01

    Rice, vegetables, and fruits were cultivated in the evacuation area at Okuma town, and the radiocesium concentration of the crop samples cultivated in contaminated and decontaminated soil was compared. Decrease of the concentration in every crop by decontamination was observed. The TF of brown rice was higher than previous reports. (author)

  12. Evaluation of the National Concept Traffic Management for mass evacuation in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friso, K.; van Zuilekom, Kasper M.; Kolen, B.

    2011-01-01

    It is impossible to execute a complete and total preventive evacuation of coastal areas in the Netherlands within the available 48-hour time span in case of a storm surge. This is mainly due to the limitations of the road capacity in proportion to the number of inhabitants in the threatened area. A

  13. "Denial or Faith?" Therapy versus Messianism in Preparing for the Evacuation of Israeli Settlements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrami, Galia Plotkin

    2015-01-01

    This article offers an ethnographic account of the professional activities of mental health practitioners, employed by the state's religious education system. I analyze various models implemented by practitioners for the purposes of preparing pupils for the state-mandated evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza and the West Bank. By focusing on…

  14. The Reality Check: Evacuation Planning done by Mixed Reality and Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keus, D.; Veldhoven, E.R. van; Heemskerck Pillis, F. van; Brink, T. van den; Laar, J. van

    2011-01-01

    Severe natural or man-made disasters that occur in urban areas often require evacuation measures to protect or rescue the population. In crisis situations, different kinds of knowledge are necessary to get insight in the consequences of the proposed set of measures. In addition, there are typically

  15. Pre-evacuation hCG glycoforms in uneventful complete hydatidiform mole and persistent trophoblastic disease.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, C.M.G.; Kerkmeijer, L.G.W.; Ariaens, H.J.; Steen, R. van der; Massuger, L.F.A.G.; Sweep, F.C.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the glycoform distribution patterns of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) obtained by chromatofocusing in pre-evacuation serum are different for patients who will eventually develop into persistent trophoblastic disease in case of complete hydatidiform mole

  16. Evacuating People and Their Pets: Older Floridians' Need for and Proximity to Pet-Friendly Shelters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Rachel; Kocatepe, Ayberk; Barrett, Anne E; Ozguven, Eren Erman; Gumber, Clayton

    2017-10-04

    Pets influence evacuation decisions, but little is known about pet-friendly emergency shelters' availability or older adults' need for them. Our study addresses this issue, focusing on the most densely populated area of Florida (Miami-Dade)-the state with the oldest population and greatest hurricane susceptibility. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to identify the shortest paths to pet-friendly shelters, based on distance and congested and uncongested travel times-taking into account the older population's spatial distribution. Logistic regression models using the 2013 American Housing Survey's Disaster Planning Module examine anticipated shelter use as a function of pet ownership and requiring pet evacuation assistance. Thirty-four percent of older adults in the Miami-Dade area have pets-35% of whom report needing pet evacuation assistance. However, GIS accessibility measures show that travel time factors are likely to impede older adults' use of the area's few pet-friendly shelters. Logistic regression results reveal that pet owners are less likely to report anticipating shelter use; however, the opposite holds for pet owners reporting they would need help evacuating their pets-they anticipate using shelters. High pet shelter need coupled with low availability exacerbates older adults' heightened vulnerability during Florida's hurricane season. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Spatial and temporal variation in evacuee risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebeneck, Laura K; Cova, Thomas J

    2012-09-01

    Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Appendicostomy irrigation for facilitating colonic evacuation in colostomy patients. Preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotanagi, H; Koyama, K; Sato, Y; Takahashi, K

    1998-08-01

    A method for bowel irrigation through an appendicostomy (antegrade colonic enema) for patients with a left colostomy is described. The appendicostomy is easily constructed without morbidity. Irrigation through the appendicostomy is performed with minimum equipment, uses a small volume of irrigation water, and takes a relatively short time. This may improve colonic evacuation in patients with left colostomy.

  19. Surgery for bilateral large intracranial traumatic hematomas: evacuation in a single session.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kompheak, Heng; Hwang, Sun-Chul; Kim, Dong-Sung; Shin, Dong-Sung; Kim, Bum-Tae

    2014-06-01

    Management guidelines for single intracranial hematomas have been established, but the optimal management of multiple hematomas has little known. We present bilateral traumatic supratentorial hematomas that each has enough volume to be evacuated and discuss how to operate effectively it in a single anesthesia. In total, 203 patients underwent evacuation and/or decompressive craniectomies for acute intracranial hematomas over 5 years. Among them, only eight cases (3.9%) underwent operations for bilateral intracranial hematomas in a single session. Injury mechanism, initial Glasgow Coma Scale score, types of intracranial lesions, surgical methods, and Glasgow outcome scale were evaluated. The most common injury mechanism was a fall (four cases). The types of intracranial lesions were epidural hematoma (EDH)/intracerebral hematoma (ICH) in five, EDH/EDH in one, EDH/subdural hematoma (SDH) in one, and ICH/SDH in one. All cases except one had an EDH. The EDH was addressed first in all cases. Then, the evacuation of the ICH was performed through a small craniotomy or burr hole. All patients except one survived. Bilateral intracranial hematomas that should be removed in a single-session operation are rare. Epidural hematomas almost always occur in these cases and should be removed first to prevent the hematoma from growing during the surgery. Then, the other hematoma, contralateral to the EDH, can be evacuated with a small craniotomy.

  20. Impact of early surgical evacuation of sylvian hematoma on clinical course and outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutoh, Tatsushi; Ishikawa, Tatsuya; Moroi, Junta; Suzuki, Akifumi; Yasui, Nobuyuki

    2010-01-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of early surgical evacuation of sylvian hematoma caused by ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysm on clinical outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage. Hospital records and computed tomography scans for 26 patients with MCA aneurysm who underwent surgical clipping between June 2001 and January 2008 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients presented with sylvian hematoma associated with subarachnoid hemorrhage and received surgery at 7.9±3.6 (mean±standard deviation) hours of ictus. They were divided postoperatively into two groups, achievement (n=16) and non-achievement (n=10) of extensive hematoma evacuation, and their clinical course and functional outcomes were compared. The frequencies of delayed ischemic neurological deficit and vasospasm-related cerebral infarction were significantly less (p<0.05) in the achievement group. Better functional outcomes were obtained in patients with successful evacuation (p<0.05), as assessed by improvement of hemiparesis on manual muscle testing scale at postoperative 1-month follow up and by the modified Rankin scale at postoperative 3 and 6 months. Clinical outcomes were also better in the achievement group. These results suggest that better clinical course and outcome can be expected in patients who undergo early successful hematoma evacuation with surgical clipping of a ruptured MCA aneurysm. (author)