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Sample records for euro exchange rates

  1. Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkoulas, John T.; Barilla, Anthony G.; Wells, William

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the long-run dynamics of a system of eight major exchange rates in the euro era using both integer and fractional cointegration methodologies. Contrary to the fragile evidence in the pre-euro era, robust evidence of linear cointegratedness is obtained in the foreign exchange market during the euro era. Upon closer examination, deviations from the cointegrating relationship exhibit nonstationary, long-memory dynamic behavior (Joseph effect). We find the long-memory evidence to be temporally stable in the most recent era. Finally, the foreign exchange system dynamics appears to be characterized by less persistence (smaller fractional exponent) in the euro era (as compared to pre-euro time periods), potentially indicating increased policy coordination by central banks in the recent period.

  2. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  3. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Klára Plecitá; Luboš Střelec

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with ...

  4. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, M. Pilar; Dickey, David A.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  5. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Cristi Spulbar; Mihai Nitoi

    2012-01-01

    Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent peri...

  6. Nonlinearity and fractional integration in the US dollar/euro exchange rate

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    Kiran Burcu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the nonlinear behavior and the fractional integration property of the US dollar/euro exchange rate over the period from January 1999 to August 2010 by extending the procedure of Peter M. Robinson (1994 to the case of nonlinearity. First, using the approach developed by Mehmet Caner and Bruce E. Hansen (2001, we investigate the possible presence of nonlinearity in the series through the estimation of a two-regime threshold autoregressive model. After finding nonlinearity, we also allow for disturbances to be fractionally integrated based on the different versions of Robinson (1994 tests. The findings show that the US dollar/euro exchange rate follows a stationary process with a weak evidence for long memory.

  7. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

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    Mihai Niţoi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent period is to be avoided because it can have financial and economic consequences with a very high cost for Romania.

  8. Talking heads : the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, DJ; De Haan, J

    This paper studies the reaction of the conditional mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements by European Central Bank and national central bank officials. We focus on comments on monetary policy and the external value of the euro. We find that the Bundesbank has dominated

  9. The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Caruso, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of macroeconomic "news" (market now-cast errors related to the flow of data releases on macroeconomic fundamentals) on the daily USD/EUR exchange rate. I consider a large number of real-time macroeconomic announcements from both the US and the euro-zone, and the related market expectations as reported by Bloomberg. For the euro-zone I also study country level announcements for the four biggest economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). The results for the whole s...

  10. Dissimilar Effects of World News Announcements on Euro/Dollar/Yen Exchange Rates: An Econophysics Approach

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    David Matesanz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of the influence of macro-economic announcements over the exchange rates volatility, but from a different perspective as it is the usual in the econometric literature. By quantifying the impact of world-wide macroeconomic information published in the economic calendar in several recent years we were able to construct long events’ time series with the objective to test whether they influence exchange rate volatilities in several currencies. In order to do that, Granger causality test was employed by using a computational approach. Our results show that announcements from U.S.A are, by far, the most important influence over the three spot forex quotes, Euro/Dollar, Euro/Yen and Dollar/Yen. The method proposed here opens the door to address several open questions until now.

  11. Modeling the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar using the ARCH/GARCH models

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    Kovačević Radovan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of time series with conditional heteroskedasticity (changeable time variability, conditional variance instability, the phenomenon called volatility is the main task of ARCH and GARCH models. The aim of these models is to calculate some of the volatility indicators needed for financial decisions. This paper examines the performance of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model in modeling the daily changes of the log exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. Several GARCH models have been applied for modeling the daily log exchange rate returns of the euro, with a different number of parameters. The characteristic of estimated GARCH models is that the obtained coefficients of lagged squared residuals and the conditional variance parameters in the equation of conditional variance have a strong statistical significance. The sum of these two coefficients' estimates is close to a unit, which is typical for GARCH models that are applied on the data of financial assets returns. This means that the shocks in the conditional variance equation will be long lasting. The great value of the sum of these two coefficients shows that the high rates of positive or negative returns leads to a large forecasted value of the variance in the prolonged period. The asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1 model has showed the best results in modeling the euro exchange rate returns. The asymmetry term in the conditional variance equation of this model is negative and statistically significant. A negative value of this term suggests that the positive shock has less impact on the conditional variance than the negative shocks. The asymmetric EGARCH (1,1 model provides evidence of a leverage effect.

  12. ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE

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    Václava Pánková

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The study on volatility and asymmetry of the exchange rate is applied to the Euro/USD relation. Starting in U.S.A., the financial and economic crisis influenced European Union with a certain delay. On the other hand, this years´ problems in Eurozone are paralleled by rising American economy. That is why we can expect both currencies to develop in different ways. In general, the depreciation deviation of exchange rate can lead to a higher volatility than the appreciation deviation, what implicates asymmetric effects. The uncertainty of exchange rate has a tendency to be inconstant in the time-varying cases, so it has a feature of conditional heteroscedasticity. That is why the models from the ARCH family are employed to study whether the asymmetry is present in the data in question; source: ECB. The Engle – Ng tests for asymmetry in volatility are used to determine whether an asymmetric model is required as adequate. A forecast will be given including an ex post comparison as well as an ex ante prognosis. Financial support from the GA CR project 402/09/0273 and the Research Plan MSM 6138439909 is appreciated.

  13. Fixing the Central Parity and the Evolution of the Currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism II in the Countries that Joined the Euro Zone

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    Lucian ANGHEL

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The present paper presents the models used by the countries that joined the Euro zone after 2000, in fixing the central parity and the evolution of the local currency towards Euro, when participating in Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II. It synthesizes the main theories for determining the equilibrium exchange rate. It also presents the modality of putting them into practice in the countries that had already become members of the Euro zone. The better we know the other countries’ experience in the respect of the joining process to the Euro zone, the better will Romania be able to prepare itself for adopting the unique European currency. Thus, we will be synthesize the main approaches within literature and also in the economic policy deciders’ practice concerning the estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate and implicitly, of the central parity. The paper presents the modality of fixing the central parity and the experience of participating in ERM II for a number of member states that joined the Euro zone after 2000: Greece, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus and Estonia. For these states we also analyze the evolution of the currency towards Euro while participating in ERM II. Starting from these examples, we explain the advantages and the disadvantages in fixing the central parity over/at/under the value of the exchange rate on the market at the moment of joining ERM II and we underline the problems that might occur in the case of choosing a central parity that is not compatible with the equilibrium value of the exchange rate.

  14. Examination of purchasing power parity hypothesis: Evidence from unit root and cointegration analysis of dinar-euro and dinar-dollar exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Petrović, Predrag

    2014-01-01

    The paper shows the results of an empirical analysis of the relative variant of purchasing power parity (PPP) for dinar-euro and dinar-dollar ex-change rates. The study was conducted for the period January 2007 - August 2013 and involved testing of the empirical foundation of strong and weak PPP forms. The first part of the strong PPP form testing comes down to examination of non-stationarity of dinar-euro and dinar-dollar real exchange rates by use of standard unit root tests (ADF, PP, KPSS,...

  15. Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank

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    Stefano Sylos Labini

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using "central bank excess funds" as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate.       JEL Codes: E58, F31Keywords: Devaluation, Exchange Rates, Monetary

  16. Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Sylos Labini

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using "central bank excess funds" as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate.

  17. Impacts of Credit Default Swaps on Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Turkey: The Case of Euro

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    Muhsin Kar

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of credit default swaps (CDS premium as a risk financial indicator on the fluctuations of value of the Turkish lira against the Euro. We try to answer the following questions: Is the CDS premium change among the drivers of EUR/TL exchange rate and what are the possible effects of CDS premium volatility on EUR/TL exchange rate stability in different conditions? In this regard, we developed a MS-VAR regime change model and asymmetric, frequency domain and rolling windows causality analysis methods. Results obtained from all tests imply that risk premium is partially a driver of the EUR/TL exchange rate between the years 2009 and 2015.

  18. International Transmission Effects of Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Greece, Portugal and Spain since the Introduction of the Euro

    OpenAIRE

    Morales, Lucia

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and exchange rate changes for Greece, Spain and Portugal for the 1999-2006 period after the introduction of the Euro as well as the 1999-2001 and 2002-2003/May and 2003/June-2006 periods since the Euro has been introduced. We use an EGARCH model which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. We also investigate whether volatility spillovers between exchange rates and e...

  19. Triangular arbitrage as an interaction among foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiba, Yukihiro; Hatano, Naomichi; Takayasu, Hideki; Marumo, Kouhei; Shimizu, Tokiko

    2002-07-01

    We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular arbitrage transactions as an interaction among three rates. The model explains the actual data of the multiple foreign exchange rates well.

  20. Purchasing Power Parity and the Euro Area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); B. Tims (Ben); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes purchasing power parity (PPP) for the euro area. We study the impact of the introduction of the euro in 1999 on the behavior of real exchange rates. We test the PPP hypothesis for a panel of real exchange rates within the euro area over the period 1973-2003. Our

  1. Boarding the Euro Plane : Euro Adoption in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dandashly, Assem; Verdun, Amy

    2015-01-01

    What explains euro adoption strategies in the Czech Republic and Slovakia? How have each of these two countries performed under the regime they joined (Czech Republic: flexible exchange rates; Slovakia: in the euro area)? How has that experience affected Czech and Slovak policies towards euro

  2. A structural investigation of third-currency shocks to bilateral exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Melecky, Martin

    2007-01-01

    An exchange rate between two currencies can be materially affected by shocks emerging from a third country. A US demand shock, for example, can affect the exchange rate between the euro and the yen. Since positive US demand shocks have a greater positive impact on Japanese interest rates than on eurozone rates, the yen appreciates against the euro in response. Using quarterly data on the U.S., the euro area and Japan from 1981 to 2006, this paper shows that the third-currency effects are sign...

  3. Measuring the costs of exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Paul R. Bergin

    2004-01-01

    Many countries go to great lengths to manage their exchange rates. Probably the most prominent recent example is the European Monetary Union, where all the members abandoned their national currencies and adopted the euro. A number of developing countries maintain other kinds of regimes of managed exchange rates, even though they face potent market pressures to let their exchange rates float. One of the main motives for these arrangements stems from the extreme volatility of exchange rates. Th...

  4. Financial and fiscal crises, prices and EUR/USD rate of exchange

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    Slawomir I. Bukowski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: How did the standard and non-standard ECB policy measures influence the price level and the EUR/USD rate of exchange in the period 2008 -2013? Design/methodology/approach: We formulated the following hypothesis: Depreciation of the Euro versus American dollar exchange rate occurred in the period of financial and fiscal crisis (2008-2014. The main reasons for that included: fiscal crisis in the euro area, implementation of standard and non–standard (quantitative easing ECB monetary policy measures and growth of money supply in the euro area. In that period, the economically and statistically significant impacts of money supply aggregate M2 and differences between interest rates and rates of inflation in the euro area and USA on changes in EUR/USD rate of exchange were noted. For verification of our hypothesis we used econometric modeling - model of regression estimated using the GARCH (0.1, using the monthly data for the period 1999:01-2013:12. Results of our research confirmed the hypothesis formulated by us. Findings: Our study confirmed the formulated hypothesis; the EBC monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, in the years 2008-2014 had a significant effect on the EUR/USD exchange rate, contributing largely to the depreciation of the euro in the same period. Research limitations/implications: The same method of research could be applied to other cases of currency area and central bank monetary policy. Originality/value: The results support the existence of statistically and economically significant impact of central bank policy on the rate of exchange, by the expansion of money supply, changes of differences between interest rates and rates of inflation inside and outside the currency rate area. Those results confirm conclusion formulated based on the theory of interest rate parity and assets theory of currency rates.

  5. Real Exchange Rates in Advanced Transition Economies

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    Sanja Grubacic

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent evidence from Eastern Europe suggests that one of the major obstacles towards the adoption of euro may lie in the impact that the recession of 2008 exerted on the trajectory of real exchange rates in new member countries (European Commission, 2015.  This paper aims to establish and explain the relationship between the external shocks derived from the global financial crisis and recession of 2008 and equilibrium real exchange rate in advanced transition economies of Eastern Europe. The interplay between the external and internal balances is explained by developing an inter-temporal optimizing model of the real exchange rate determination in a small open economy with structural distortions. The results of our model suggest that, in the aftermath of recession, if the Eastern European economies attempt to restore and maintain the balance between the consumption, saving, and investment, the equilibrium real exchange rate will tend to reverse its trajectory from appreciation to depreciation over time in order to encourage a greater production in the future. The equilibrium real exchange rate depreciation in the future may obtain either as a result of an increase in the direct subsidies on investment or as a result of reduced subsidies on the "net-of-investment" income.  The deprecation of countries’ real exchange rate, however, may continue to act as an effective constraint against the adoption of euro.

  6. Ist der Euro gefährdet? Is the European currency euro put at risk?

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    Armin Rohde

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to high national debt in several member states of the Euro-Currency-Area which led to huge relief programmes the single European currency Euro seems to be at risk. Bur neither inflation rates nor exchange rate movements of the Euro since 1999 up to 2011 give reasons to believe that an up to now success story of the Euro will come to a sudden end in shortness. On the other hand it often had been argued that increasing national debt will inevitably lead to higher inflation rates and will endanger a currency by permanent devaluation. But the institutional and legal framework of the European monetary policy, if used correctly, will give sufficient protection against inflation pressure due to increasing national debt. The most danger for the European currency or for the European-Currency-Area can be seen in drifting apart of national competiveness between the member states of the Euro- Area, especially due to an existing lack of coordination in wage policy. Different wage policies in the member states of the Euro-Area in the past had led to different national inflation rates and had caused calculated real exchange rate movements which had lasting influence on national competiveness, which hamper international trade in the case of real appreciation or which promote international trade in the case of real depreciation..

  7. PURCHASING POWER PARITY INFLUENCE ON REAL EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR IN ROMANIA

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    Nicolae Ghiba

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purchasing Power Parity (PPP represents a fundamental concept in exchange rate modeling. The main idea is given by equality between prices in two different countries when expressing in the same currency.This paper aims to analyze the behavior of real exchange rate between EURO and Romanian new leu (RON under PPP paradigm. We use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron stationarity tests in order to check real exchange deviations from PPP. Also, we investigate the existence of a connection between long-term between nominal exchange rate and industrial producer price indices from Romania and euro area. The main conclusions of this research highlight that PPP doesn’t holds; real exchange rate stationarity tests doest not confirm the stationarity, thus between the aforementioned three variables it doesn’t exists any equilibrium relation.

  8. Introducing False EUR and False EUR exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.

    2000-10-01

    The Euro ( EUR) is a new currency introduced by the European Community. Its exchange rate is very puzzling. We have invented a false Euro ( FEUR) dating back to 1993 and have derived the exchange rates of the FEUR with respect to currencies not belonging to the EUR, i.e., DKK, CHF, JPY and USD. This allows us to search for correlations between the fluctuations preexisting to the introduction of EUR and present ones in such financial data. The detrended fluctuation analysis ( DFA) statistical method is used. This leads to assume a power-law behavior, i.e., a scaling hypothesis, through an exponent α. The latter has demonstrated its usefulness for the investigations of long-range power-law correlations in several types of financial sequences. Our findings show that the α exponent interestingly characterizes fractional Brownian motion of the currency exchange rates between EUR and DKK over a 25 day interval, and usual Brownian motion otherwise and for the three other investigated exchange rates. We can devise an investment strategy based on the localα technique and obtain appreciable gains for the time being.

  9. Exchange rate policy

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    Plačkov Slađana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small oscillations of exchange rate certainly affect the loss of confidence in the currency (Serbian dinar, CSD and because of the shallow market even the smallest change in the supply and demand leads to a shift in exchange rate and brings uncertainty. Some economists suggest that the course should be linked to inflation and thus ensure predictable and stable exchange rates. Real exchange rate or slightly depressed exchange rate will encourage the competitiveness of exporters and perhaps ensure the development of new production lines which, in terms of overvalued exchange rate, had no economic justification. Fixed exchange rate will bring lower interest rates, lower risk and lower business uncertainty (uncertainty avoidance, but Serbia will also reduce foreign exchange reserves by following this trend. On the other hand, a completely free exchange rate, would lead to a (real fall of Serbian currency, which in a certain period would lead to a significant increase in exports, but the consequences for businessmen and citizens with loans pegged to the euro exchange rate, would be disastrous. We will pay special attention to the depreciation of the exchange rate, as it is generally favorable to the export competitiveness of Serbia and, on the other hand, it leads to an increase in debt servicing costs of the government as well as of the private sector. Oscillations of the dinar exchange rate, appreciation and depreciation, sometimes have disastrous consequences on the economy, investors, imports and exports. In subsequent work, we will observe the movement of the dinar exchange rate in Serbia, in the time interval 2009-2012, in order to strike a balance and maintain economic equilibrium. A movement of foreign currencies against the local currency is controlled in the foreign exchange market, so in case economic interests require, The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, on the basis of arbitrary criteria, can intervene in the market.

  10. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

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    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  11. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  12. Chaoticity in the time evolution of foreign currency exchange rates in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakar, O.; Aybar, O. O.; Hacinliyan, A. S.; Kusbeyzi, I.

    Tools from chaos theory that have found recent use in analysing financial markets have been applied to the US Dollar and Euro buying and selling rates against the Turkish currency. The reason for choosing the foreign exchange rate in this analysis is the fact that foreign currency is an indicator of not only the globalization of economy but also savings and investment. In order to test the globality assumption and to ascertain the degree of involvement of local conditions in Turkey, the Euro and US dollar exchange rates have been subjected to the same analysis.

  13. Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions, Asymmetries and Hedging Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); Y. Yuan (Yuan); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct

  14. Are pound and euro the same currency?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsushita, Raul; Gleria, Iram; Figueiredo, Annibal; Silva, Sergio da

    2007-01-01

    Based on long-range dependence, some analysts claim that the exchange rate time series of the pound sterling and of an artificially extended euro have been locked together for years despite daily changes [M. Ausloos, K. Ivanova, Physica A 286 (2000) 353; K. Ivanova, M. Ausloos, False EUR exchange rates vs DKK, CHF, JPY and USD. What is a strong currency? in: H. Takayasu (Ed.), Empirical Sciences in Financial Fluctuations: The Advent of Econophysics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2002, pp. 62-76]. They conclude that pound and euro are in practice the same currency. We assess the long-range dependence over time through Hurst exponents of pound-dollar and extended euro-dollar exchange rates employing three alternative techniques, namely rescaled range analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, and detrended moving average. We find the result above (which is based on detrended fluctuation analysis) not to be robust to the changing techniques and parameterizing

  15. The impact of exchange rate EUR/USD on the rate of return of bond investments denominated in US dollar from the point of view of euro investor

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    Oldřich Šoba

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment opportunities into foreign curruncies financial assets are rising because of financial markets globalization, financial markets integration and evolution of modern information technologies. The currency risk relates to these cases when investor converts cash from and into domestic currency. The currency risk is determined by unexcepeted change of exchange rate (currency of financial asset denomination / investor’s domestic currency during duration of the investment.Objective of the paper is quantification and analysis of exchange rate EUR/USD impact on the rate of return of bond investments denominated in US dollar from the point of view of a euro investor for investment horizons of different length.The analysis is realized for following investment horizons: 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 year and 12 year. Complementary investment horizons are: month and 15 year. Bond investments denominated just US dollar are represented by investments into ING bond unit trust in period December 1989–December 2007. The unit trust invests into bonds with high rating (for example governmants bonds etc.. These bonds are denominated in USD only. Methodology of the analysis is based on quantification of proportion of exchange rate EUR/USD impact on the rate of return of bond investment denominated in USD. The share is based on basic piece of knowledge of the uncovered interest rate parity.

  16. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

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    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  17. Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

    Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

  18. USD and Euro: competitive advantages of reserve currencies and leadership tussle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordyachkova O. V.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available the article describes the factors, affecting exchange rate, competitive advantages of USD and Euro as reserve currencies, the steps of fight of USD and Euro for the status of the “main” world's reserve currency. It was concluded that the main factor, affecting exchange rate, is a political impact.

  19. Visibility graph approach to exchange rate series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yue; Wang, Jianbo; Yang, Huijie; Mang, Jingshi

    2009-10-01

    By means of a visibility graph, we investigate six important exchange rate series. It is found that the series convert into scale-free and hierarchically structured networks. The relationship between the scaling exponents of the degree distributions and the Hurst exponents obeys the analytical prediction for fractal Brownian motions. The visibility graph can be used to obtain reliable values of Hurst exponents of the series. The characteristics are explained by using the multifractal structures of the series. The exchange rate of EURO to Japanese Yen is widely used to evaluate risk and to estimate trends in speculative investments. Interestingly, the hierarchies of the visibility graphs for the exchange rate series of these two currencies are significantly weak compared with that of the other series.

  20. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  1. Monetary autonomy under different exchange rate regimes in the long-run: the case of seven new EU countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu HSING

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper finds that except for Poland, the other six countries possess moderate or significant monetary autonomy in the long run as their interest rates make partial or small adjustments to a change in the Euro area interest rate. Except for the Czech Republic and Poland, the findings support the hypothesis that countries under more flexible exchange rate regimes possess more monetary autonomy than countries under less flexible exchange rate regimes because local interest rates under more flexible exchange rate regimes are less sensitive to a change in the euro area interest rate.

  2. Random walk theory and exchange rate dynamics in transition economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay's (1988 conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright's (2000 non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990 and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.

  3. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  4. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  5. EU enlargement and new member countries' involvement in the exchange rates system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlatka Bilas

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available For each country, joining the union is a unique process, considering advantages and disadvantages which a country can thus obtain. In order to fulfill conditions for the EU accession, transition countries must achieve different convergence criteria. Expansion of the EU brings along many challenges including coordination of policies and conducting a common monetary policy. After joining the EU new members are expected to have a minimum of two years of participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 before accepting euro. ERM2 can be a flexible and efficient framework for the determination of a appropriate level of irrevocable exchange rate fixing according to euro, as well as for achieving macroeconomic stability. Even though, considering demands for complete abolition of capital controls and high capital mobility, fixed exchange rate with fluctuation margins of ±15% is to become sensitive to the capital movements and speculative attacks.

  6. A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks. PMID:29529092

  7. A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N; Pantelous, Athanasios A; Zuev, Konstantin M

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks.

  8. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and

  9. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  10. Euro Adoption in Central Europe Laggards by Default and Laggards by Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dandashly, Assem; Verdun, Amy

    2016-01-01

    How can we explain the politics of euro adoption in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland? How did the euro crisis influence their positions regarding euro adoption? This article builds on the domestic politics literature and argues: (i) countries that had joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism-2 early

  11. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  12. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  13. Balance of payments adjustment mechanisms in the Euro area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel HNÁT

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims at analysing the current situation in the Euro area with respect to the balance of payments adjustment mechanism that should normally be at place. Internally, the Euro area membership represents a combination of the fixed exchange rate, capital mobility and no monetary policy autonomy; externally, the Euro area countries apply floating exchange rates with high capital mobility, and autonomous monetary policy. Member states thus cannot use the monetary instruments to prevent external influences; they can only use fiscal policies, which are limited by the Stability and Growth Pact and debt constraint. When external imbalance occurs (such as today, the economies of member states are exposed to the price and income adjustment processes as well as to their own fiscal and ECB policy impacts. This article shows that all these factors interfere and influence real effects of automatic adjustment mechanisms which in some cases cannot come forth at all. Factors within domestic economic policies that limit the restoration of external balance within the Euro area thus create an important outcome of this paper.

  14. Wirtschaftliche Hindernisse für den Beitritt der Tschechischen Republik zur Eurozone. Economic barriers of the Czech Republic’s euro-area accession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojmir Helisek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The date of introduction of the euro in the Czech Republic has not been set. The Czech economy fulfils the inflation and interest rate convergence criteria, as well as the government debt criterion. The exchange rate stability criterion will be most likely fulfilled. The Czech economy possesses a high level of real convergence in respect of the euro area. Due to the economic recession, the government deficit criterion will probably not be fulfilled by 2012. The date of introduction of the euro in the Czech Republic is therefore postponed to 2015 at the earliest. The main reason for adopting the single currency is the growing interconnection between the Czech and the euro area economies. The exchange rate of the Czech crown to the euro has a higher stability than the exchange rate of the euro to the dollar, however, a long-term appreciation of the crown’s exchange rate weakens the competitiveness of the Czech exporters. The financial crisis and the recession have only complicated and postponed the adoption of the euro, but they have revealed no reasons to refuse the adoption.

  15. Long-run real exchange rate determinants : Evidence from eight new EU member states, 1993–2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom)

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate bilateral equilibrium real exchange rates for a group of eight new EU member states against the euro, using new and sophisticated panel-cointegration techniques. We document a stable significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange

  16. LE BINOME EURO-DOLLAR SOUS LE SIGNE DE L’INCERTITUDE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Bal

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Will the Dollar remain the dominant international currency (mainly as a reserve currency? To answer this question, the paper presents in the first part the opinions of the most prominent experts concerning the determinant factors of an international currency status, in the two sphere of utilization: public and private. The most important are: the magnitude of the economies of emission, the externalities of network, the liquidity of their financial market, the confidence in their stability. Then there follows the evaluations concerning the two international currencies, Dollar and Euro, from these perspectives. Finally, the paper evaluates their role as measure of value, instrument of reserve and instrument of payment in the international economic relations. In the second part, the paper evaluates the recent tendencies of the exchange rate Euro/Dollar (2006-2008 from the point of view of fundamentals. After a period of depreciation, from the middle of the year 2008 until now, the dollar marked an unexpected appreciation towards the euro. But, the global financial and economic crisis increases the incertitude concerning the evolution of the exchange rate euro/dollar. Undoubtedly the two currencies will remain the prominent international currencies and the dollar the main reserve currency. Finally the paper presents Mundell’s proposal of stabilization of the binomial euro/dollar.

  17. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  18. The Evaluation of the Equilibrum Exchange Rate based on the Purchase Power, for Romania’s Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The current paper aims to analyse one of the many models of evaluation for the equilibrum rate in an economy. It also briefly presents the main models and methods used in the specialized literature for the evaluation of the equilibrum exchange rate. The utilization of as many methods allows the deciders of monetary and economic policy to accurately ground the moment of one country adhesion to the euro zone. Also, an analysis can be made, whether the respective countru is ready and how fast the process of convergence to the Euro zone can evolve. In general, it is recommendable a country not to force de adhesion to the euro zone because the negative effects may occur for a long period of time, leading to a development for the respective economy under its potential. The estimated model in Romania based on data will be afterwards used for estimating the equilibrum rate and for issuing scenarios concerning its future evolution. Usually, the parity at which the national currency should be converted for an unlimited period of time, will also be around the level of the equilibrum rate. From that moment on, after attending the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II, the respective country’s economy loses an equilibrum buffer – the exchange rate. Starting from that moment, the country’s economy is supposed to be so performant that it absorbs the internal and external negative shocks, only relaying on the fiscal and budget policies. Hence, the particular importance of a correct evaluation for the equilibrum rate by using several models and methods, so that to be as close as possible to the equilibrum level on mid term.

  19. THE EURO AT CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    Your UBS branch at CERN

    2001-01-01

    As part of the changeover to the euro, the UBS is pleased to announce the following information: From 28 December 2001, the cash dispensing machines will no longer issue French francs (FRF). At the beginning of January, all machines in the network will be modified to issue 50-euro notes. The wall machines in Buildings 500 and 504 will also issue 100-euro notes. Until 28 February 2002, it will be possible to sell notes in IN currencies (currencies of member countries of the economic and monetary union) in exchange for CHF over bank counters. In Switzerland, IN currencies are not directly convertible into euros. The conversion of cash from an IN currency to cash in euros is equivalent to a purchase and sale operation via Swiss francs. The UBS does not purchase or sell coins in euros (including IN currencies). Until 28 February 2002, it will be possible at all branches to deposit old coinage in IN currencies in Unicef 'Change for Good' envelopes. Until the second half of 2002, euro-denominated accounts will be a...

  20. The euro: an international currency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riley, D.

    2000-01-01

    A number of studies and reports are now readily available on how to come grips the Euro - its calendar, conversion factors, legal, financial and accounting aspects, and so forth. Typically, they point to a fixed-for-ever rate of exchange between participating countries, which of course may have strategic consequences for the location of many types of business. This survey does not seek to be exhaustive, nor to cover what is well documented elsewhere. Rather, it attempts to examine areas where uncertainty, or controversy continue to exist, as well as focus on aspects that are pertinent to the oil and gas industries. Two questions stand out. The first is a general one, concerning how the Euro is likely to fare in international currency markets, notably relative to the US Dollar. The second is closely linked to the first, but is specific to the hydrocarbons business: will European oil and gas prices be quoted in euros and, if so, over what time frame? Finally, this review looks briefly at a selection of other impacts relevant to the energy business

  1. Macroeconomics factors and the balanced value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brůha, J.; Derviz, Alexis

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 56, 7-8 (2006), s. 318-343 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/05/0671 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : exchange rate * latent risk * order flow pricing kernel Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.190, year: 2006

  2. The effect of European integration on exchange rate dependence: the Polish accession to the EU

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiel, J.H.; van Giersbergen, N.P.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the Polish accession to the European Union (EU) on the dependence between the euro-US dollar and Polish zloty-US dollar exchange rate. The dependence is estimated by means of copulas as suggested by Patton (2006). This approach allows to first specify and

  3. EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRUME NIKOLOSKI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

  4. How Far Along is Euro Adoption in the Czech Republic? Benefits for Businesses Still Remain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojmír Helísek

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to assess the reasons for the current negative position of the Czech Government towardeuro adoption and to find out whether the expected benefits of euro adoption for Czech companies still remain. Thepostponement of euro adoption in the Czech Republic has mainly been caused by the current problems of the euroarea. The benefits arising from euro adoption are subject to the reduction of the exchange rate volatility and of thetransaction costs, whereas they also depend on the degree of integration with the euro area. These benefits may stillbe expected – neither the financial crisis nor the economic recession has affected them. The integration of the Czecheconomy with the euro area is high and still growing. Therefore, euro adoption will lead to the stimulation of mutual tradeof the Czech Republic and the euro area.

  5. Empirical Studies on Asset Pricing and Banking in the Euro Area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractEuropean capital markets have changed dramatically over the last couple of years. Due to the harmonization of monetary and policy rules and the elimination of exchange rate risk (through the introduction of the euro) countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are becoming more

  6. Areva excellent business volume: backlog as of december 31, 2008: + 21.1% to 48.2 billion euros. 2008 revenue: + 10.4% to 13.2 billion euros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    AREVA's backlog stood at 48.2 billion euros as of December 31, 2008, for 21.1% growth year-on-year, including 21.8% growth in Nuclear and 16.5% growth in Transmission and Distribution. The Nuclear backlog came to 42.5 billion euros at December 31, 2008. The Transmission and Distribution backlog came to 5.7 billion euros at year-end. The group recognized revenue of 13.2 billion euros in 2008, for year-on-year growth of 10.4% (+9.8% like-for-like). Revenue outside France was up 10.5% to 9.5 billion euros, representing 72% of total revenue. Revenue was up 6.5% in the Nuclear businesses (up 6.3% LFL), with strong performance in the Reactors and Services division (+10.9% LFL) and the Front End division (+7.2% LFL). The Transmission and Distribution division recorded growth of 17% (+15.8% LFL). Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2008 rose to 4.1 billion euros, up 5.2% (+1.6% LFL) from that of the fourth quarter of 2007. Revenue for the Front End division rose to 3.363 billion euros in 2008, up 7.1% over 2007 (+7.2% LFL). Foreign exchange (currency translations) had a negative impact of 53 million euros. Revenue for the Reactors and Services division rose to 3.037 billion euros, up 11.8% over 2007 (+10.9% LFL). Foreign exchange (currency translations) had a negative impact of 47 million euros. Revenue for the Back End division came to 1.692 billion euros, a drop of 2.7% (-2.5% LFL). Foreign exchange (currency translations) had a negative impact of 3.5 million euros. Revenue for the Transmission and Distribution division rose to 5.065 billion euros in 2008, up 17.0% (+15.8% LFL)

  7. Euro area Inflation as a Predictor of National Inflation Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba

    2013-01-01

    The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in th...

  8. Long-range atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants, I: description of surface-atmosphere exchange modules and implementation in EUROS.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, C.M.J.; Pul, van W.A.J.

    1996-01-01

    Concerns a description of a model for the exchange of gaseous Persistent Organic Pollutants (POP) at land and sea surfaces and its application in the Eulerian air pollution transport model EUROS. Sample simulations of the net deposition of lindane over Europe are discussed. For non-emission areas

  9. Macroeconomic adjustment: The Baltic states versus euro area crisis countries

    OpenAIRE

    Lindner, Axel

    2011-01-01

    Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have succeeded in rapidly reducing their current account deficits despite fixed exchange rates. Which factors have played a major role in this? What similarities, and what differences, do the Baltic states show compared to Greece and Portugal? What insights can be gained for the political debate on the euro area debt crisis?

  10. Correlation structures in short-term variabilities of stock indices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael

    2007-09-01

    Financial data usually show irregular fluctuations and some trends. We investigate whether there are correlation structures in short-term variabilities (irregular fluctuations) among financial data from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems. Our method is based on the small-shuffle surrogate method. The data we use are daily closing price of Standard & Poor's 500 and the volume, and daily foreign exchange rates, Euro/US Dollar (USD), British Pound/USD and Japanese Yen/USD. We found that these data are not independent.

  11. Approaching a problem of the long-run real equilibrium exchange rate of Polish zloty while entering the ERM-2 and Euro zone

    OpenAIRE

    Przystupa, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Taking into account a large number of types of nominal and real exchange rates, while estimating the real equilibrium exchange rate, one should always remember that there is no a single, universal equilibrium exchange rate. A point value or a path of that exchange rate depends on the adopted definitions and assumptions as well as on the method and purpose of the analysis. However, a value added of each estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate is an answer, whether the economic policy cause...

  12. POLAND IN AND OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONE – RISKS AND BENEFITS IN THE LIGHT OF NEW POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the benefits and risks of Poland adopting the euro in the light of current political and economic conditions. For this purpose, the following research methods were used: literature research, intuitive method and descriptive statistics. Poland has fulfilled the criteria for nominal convergence for two years, apart from participating in the ERM II mechanism, but the political situation in the country precludes the adoption of measures leading to the euro zone. The future shape of this zone is yet unknown, as its closer integration is planned. Theoretical analysis indicates that the process of globalization makes it difficult for medium-sized, open-economy countries to pursue autonomous monetary and exchange rate policy, so the loss of these instruments after the adoption of the euro should not jeopardize long-term economic growth, even in the case of asymmetric shocks. The market mechanisms of restoring the balance and fiscal policy may then be used. The economy will also benefit from the elimination of transaction costs and exchange rate risks in the euro zone. The analysis shows that it is possible to use the opportunity for faster GDP growth associated with the adoption of the common currency if the right economic policy is pursued. Adopting the euro may also incur costs. For banks it can be the loss of foreign exchange earnings and commissions on FX hedge transactions. For the economy it can be the possibility of speculative bubbles, as a result of excessive consumption growth, caused by possibly too low interest rates. Expected benefits should, however, outweigh any losses.

  13. Areva excellent business volume: backlog as of december 31, 2008: + 21.1% to 48.2 billion euros. 2008 revenue: + 10.4% to 13.2 billion euros; Areva excellent niveau d'activite: carnet de commandes au 31/12/2008: + 21,1% a 48,2 Mds d'euros. Chiffre d'affaires de l'exercice 2008: + 10,4% a 13,2 Mds d'euros

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    AREVA's backlog stood at 48.2 billion euros as of December 31, 2008, for 21.1% growth year-on-year, including 21.8% growth in Nuclear and 16.5% growth in Transmission and Distribution. The Nuclear backlog came to 42.5 billion euros at December 31, 2008. The Transmission and Distribution backlog came to 5.7 billion euros at year-end. The group recognized revenue of 13.2 billion euros in 2008, for year-on-year growth of 10.4% (+9.8% like-for-like). Revenue outside France was up 10.5% to 9.5 billion euros, representing 72% of total revenue. Revenue was up 6.5% in the Nuclear businesses (up 6.3% LFL), with strong performance in the Reactors and Services division (+10.9% LFL) and the Front End division (+7.2% LFL). The Transmission and Distribution division recorded growth of 17% (+15.8% LFL). Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2008 rose to 4.1 billion euros, up 5.2% (+1.6% LFL) from that of the fourth quarter of 2007. Revenue for the Front End division rose to 3.363 billion euros in 2008, up 7.1% over 2007 (+7.2% LFL). Foreign exchange (currency translations) had a negative impact of 53 million euros. Revenue for the Reactors and Services division rose to 3.037 billion euros, up 11.8% over 2007 (+10.9% LFL). Foreign exchange (currency translations) had a negative impact of 47 million euros. Revenue for the Back End division came to 1.692 billion euros, a drop of 2.7% (-2.5% LFL). Foreign exchange (currency translations) had a negative impact of 3.5 million euros. Revenue for the Transmission and Distribution division rose to 5.065 billion euros in 2008, up 17.0% (+15.8% LFL)

  14. Research on the Nominal Convergence of Romania to the Euro Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Bărglăzan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available All the European Union (EU member states engaged to adopt, sooner or later, the euro. In order to do so, they must accomplish the convergence criteria concerning the inflation rate, the exchange rate, the interest rate, the public deficit and the public debt. The paper analyses the situation of Romania, based on the convergence criteria. Romania accomplishes only the criteria referring to public finances, while inflation still seems to be the worst problem.

  15. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  16. L’euro, una moneta completa (The Euro Becomes a Complete Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giacomo Vaciago

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available The euro changeover has been a success as millions of Europeans have become accustomed to using the new coins and banknotes. What comes next? So far the benefits of the euro are a product of the "vices" which have been taken away from us. In the case of Italy, the gains have been very low inflation and interest rates. Much more has still to come. First, the euro-zone has to become an optimum currency area: all national markets are required to integrate into one larger and more efficient market. This will lead to faster growth in line with Adam Smith's theory. Second, we still need to transfer foreign policy and defense, along with the euro, to a European level thereby completing the Union.

  17. Areva At September 30, 2010: Revenue growth to euro 6.168 bn: + 6.3%. Backlog growth to euro 42.7 bn: + 2.2%

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    AREVA generated consolidated revenue of 6.168 billion euros over the first nine months of 2010 for growth of 6.3% (+5.2% like-for-like) compared with the same period in 2009. The main revenue growth engines were the Reactors and Services Business Group and the Back End Business Group, with growth of 11.5% and 7.1% respectively. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 82 million euros over the period, while changes in consolidation scope had negligible impact. Third quarter 2010 revenue amounted to 2.011 billion euros for growth of 6.1% (+4.4% LFL) compared with the third quarter of 2009. The Reactors and Services Business Group and the Back End Business Group, posting increases of 11.2% and 9.0% respectively, continued to lead this growth. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 39 million euros, while changes in consolidation scope had negligible impact. The group's backlog came to 42.7 billion euros at September 30, 2010, an increase of 2.2% compared with September 30, 2009 (41.8 billion euros). For the full year of 2010, the group confirms its outlook for significant revenue and backlog growth, increased operating performance excluding particular items, negative operating income, and strong growth in net income attributable to owners of the group with the contribution of the gain on the sale of the Transmission and Distribution business

  18. Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.; Mavromatis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the

  19. L’euro, una moneta completa (The Euro Becomes a Complete Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giacomo Vaciago

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The euro changeover has been a success as millions of Europeans have become accustomed to using the new coins and banknotes. What comes next? So far the benefits of the euro are a product of the "vices" which have been taken away from us. In the case of Italy, the gains have been very low inflation and interest rates. Much more has still to come. First, the euro-zone has to become an optimum currency area: all national markets are required to integrate into one larger and more efficient market. This will lead to faster growth in line with Adam Smith's theory. Second, we still need to transfer foreign policy and defense, along with the euro, to a European level thereby completing the Union.   

  20. Currencies, National Images and National Identities: Public Relations for and against Currencies – Historical Experiences from Germany, the Case of the Euro and the Role of Rating Agencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Kunczik

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available My thesis is that, in the “age of markets” in Europe the Euro is of central importance for creating (or destroying already established structures of European identity (at least in parts of Europe – with Great Britain taking a very remote position. I emphasize the theoretical aspects (Aftalion´s Psychological Theory of Exchange Rates; Simmel: Philosophie des Geldes to emphasize the importance of PR. I concentrate on historical cases – mainly German experiences – e.g. the campaign against the Rubel; the ideas of Ivy Lee; the PR-campaigns of the Nazi-government to fight inflation. The introduction of the German Mark (“die Deutsche Mark”, which became a central aspect of German national identity, and the campaign to give up this currency (“harte Währung” in order to introduce the “weak” Euro. In this context I discuss campaigns against the Euro (“only idiots want the Euro”. In the final remarks I refer to the role of rating agencies and trust in currencies and countries. It is my thesis that the analysts of the rating agencies live in a “world of literary images” and are acting in a completely irresponsible way (but even more incompetent are the politicians accepting the ratings without knowing anything about the problem of commensuration.

  1. The Prediction of Exchange Rates with the Use of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Spiesová

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currency market is recently the largest world market during the existence of which there have been many theories regarding the prediction of the development of exchange rates based on macroeconomic, microeconomic, statistic and other models. The aim of this paper is to identify the adequate model for the prediction of non-stationary time series of exchange rates and then use this model to predict the trend of the development of European currencies against Euro. The uniqueness of this paper is in the fact that there are many expert studies dealing with the prediction of the currency pairs rates of the American dollar with other currency but there is only a limited number of scientific studies concerned with the long-term prediction of European currencies with the help of the integrated ARMA models even though the development of exchange rates has a crucial impact on all levels of economy and its prediction is an important indicator for individual countries, banks, companies and businessmen as well as for investors. The results of this study confirm that to predict the conditional variance and then to estimate the future values of exchange rates, it is adequate to use the ARIMA (1,1,1 model without constant, or ARIMA [(1,7,1,(1,7] model, where in the long-term, the square root of the conditional variance inclines towards stable value.

  2. Areva At December 31, 2010: Revenue rises to euros 9.104 bn: + 6.7% Backlog rises to euros 44.2 bn: + 2.0%

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    impact of 84 million euros. - In Mining, revenue continued to benefit from the increase in AREVA's average uranium sales prices (+5%) and in volumes sold. In addition, gold revenue was up more than 80% compared with 2009. - In Enrichment, revenue was stable compared with 2009. - In Fuel, the drop in volumes reflecting the postponement of deliveries in France was offset by an increase in ancillary activities revenue (components and services) compared with 2009. The backlog for the Reactors and Services BG came to 7.290 billion euros at December 31, 2010. The leading orders booked in the second half of the year were as follows: - an engineering contract from US utility Tennessee Valley Authority to study conditions for completion of unit 1 of the Bellefonte power plant in northern Alabama; - industrial prototype design studies for the CEA for the Generation IV ASTRID reactor; - the start of design, engineering and safety studies for the Indian utility NPCIL under the agreement concerning the construction of two EPR TM reactors at the Jaitapur site and fuel supply for 25 years, with commercial negotiations expected to be brought to a successful conclusion in 2011. Revenue for the Reactors and Services BG was up 8.9% in 2010 (+7.8% LFL) to 3.384 billion euros. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 39 million euros. - The New Build business was up due to significant progress on major reactor construction projects. - Installed Base Services were up sharply due to buoyant business in component replacement, the increase in power plant modernization and up-rating operations in Europe, and the large amount of work performed in the United States on unit outages. The backlog for the Back End BG came to 6.056 billion euros at December 31, 2010. The BG continued to pursue its international development over the year. In particular, it signed MOX fuel fabrication contracts and a contract with the US Department of Energy for the training of future operators of the MOX Fuel

  3. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  4. Dynamic Correlations of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro zone and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies' Downgrades

    OpenAIRE

    Antonakakis, Nikolaos

    2012-01-01

    The European debt crisis that followed the global financial crisis, erupting first with Greece, then Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain, has threatened the very existence of the Euro zone. In this paper we examine the evolution of dynamic co-movements of sovereign bond yield spreads (BYS) in the Euro zone and the role of credit rating agency downgrades on those co-movements. Estimation results from a multivariate DCC-GARCH model on daily BYS data for nine Euro zone countries over the period 2...

  5. EURO ZONE AND ITS MONETARY POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorel Dumitru CHIRIŢESCU

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article I have tried to make a short presentation of the Euro Zone and it’s monetary policy. At the present moment the Euro Zone has 16 countries that have adopted the Euro as a national currency and also 4 small countries that have monetary agreements with their neighbours. The monetary policy represents all the regulations of the money supply and interest rates adopted by the European Central Bank in order to control the inflation rate and to stabilize a specific currency, in this case, the Euro. Stabilizing the inflation rate to certain levels is the main goal of the monetary policy. The monetary policy is the second policy, next to the fiscal one which in which a government, in this case the European Union’s official bodies, can impact the economic situation of the Eurozone. The fiscal policy represents the way a government spends, borrows or applies different types of taxes. The Monetary policy can be either expansionary, when unemployement and recessions needs to be combated, or contractionary, when inflation is conbated byt raising the interest rates.

  6. Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System versus Floating Exchange Rate System

    OpenAIRE

    Geza, Paula; Giurca Vasilescu, Laura

    2011-01-01

    One of the most important issues of monetary policy is to find out whether the state should intervene among the exchange rates, taking into account the fact that changes in the exchange rates represent a significant transmission channel of the effects generated by the monetary policy. Taking into consideration the failure of fixed exchange rate regimes and the recent improvement of financial markets, the return in the near future to such a regime – as for example the Bretton Woods system –...

  7. Automated exchange transfusion and exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funato, M; Shimada, S; Tamai, H; Taki, H; Yoshioka, Y

    1989-10-01

    An automated blood exchange transfusion (BET) with a two-site technique has been devised by Goldmann et al and by us, using an infusion pump. With this method, we successfully performed exchange transfusions 189 times in the past four years on 110 infants with birth weights ranging from 530 g to 4,000 g. The exchange rate by the automated method was compared with the rate by Diamond's method. Serum bilirubin (SB) levels before and after BET and the maximal SB rebound within 24 hours after BET were: 21.6 +/- 2.4, 11.5 +/- 2.2, and 15.0 +/- 1.5 mg/dl in the automated method, and 22.0 +/- 2.9, 11.2 +/- 2.5, and 17.7 +/- 3.2 mg/dl in Diamond's method, respectively. The result showed that the maximal rebound of the SB level within 24 hours after BET was significantly lower in the automated method than in Diamond's method (p less than 0.01), though SB levels before and after BET were not significantly different between the two methods. The exchange rate was also measured by means of staining the fetal red cells (F cells) both in the automated method and in Diamond's method, and comparing them. The exchange rate of F cells in Diamond's method went down along the theoretical exchange curve proposed by Diamond, while the rate in the automated method was significantly better than in Diamond's, especially in the early stage of BET (p less than 0.01). We believe that the use of this automated method may give better results than Diamond's method in the rate of exchange, because this method is performed with a two-site technique using a peripheral artery and vein.

  8. Is a more stable exchange rate associated with reduced exchange rate pass-through?

    OpenAIRE

    Mark J. Holmes

    2007-01-01

    Pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices is modelled within a regime-switching environment. Evidence suggests that exchange rate pass through can be characterised as regime-specific where the probability of switching between regimes is influenced by the extent of exchange rate volatility.

  9. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  10. An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Helge Berger; Jan-Egbert Sturm; Jakob de Haan

    2000-01-01

    We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into accou...

  11. Areva - First quarter 2009 revenue climbs 8.5% to 3.003 billion euros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-04-01

    First quarter 2009 revenue was up 8.5% compared with the same period last year, to 3.003 billion euros. At constant exchange rates and consolidation scope, growth came to 3.9%. Currency translation had a positive impact of 57 million euros over the quarter. Changes in the consolidation scope had an impact of 66 million euros, primarily due to the consolidation of acquisitions made in 2008 in Transmission and Distribution and in Renewable Energies. The growth engines for first quarter revenue were the Reactors and Services division and the Transmission and Distribution division, with growth of 9.2% and 16.1% respectively. Outside France, revenue rose to 2.032 billion euros, compared with 1.857 billion euros in the first quarter of 2008, and represents 68% of total revenue. Orders were steady in the first quarter, particularly in the Front End, which posted several significant contracts with US and Asian utilities, and in Transmission and Distribution, with orders up sharply in Asia and South America. As of March 31, 2009, the group's backlog reached 49.5 billion euros, for 28.3% growth year-on-year, including 31.3% growth in Nuclear and 10.2% in Transmission and Distribution. For the year as a whole, the group confirms its outlook for backlog and revenue growth as well as rising operating income It should be noted that revenue may vary significantly from one quarter to the next in nuclear operations. Accordingly, quarterly data cannot be viewed as a reliable indicator of annual trends

  12. Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

  13. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  14. Public debt improves the stability of exchange rates in developing countries? The specific case of news European members (2004 and 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibault Cuénoud

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to speak about the current situation in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC. The majority of them have been entering in European Union in 2004 and 2007. This step has been increasing their international attractiveness and improves their economic growth. However, they must stabilize exchange rate to sustain their foreign direct investment attraction. Two strategies are adopting about the regulation of exchange rate. Bulgarian, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Slovenia and Slovakia are entering in Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 (ERM2 to adopt quickly euro currency (it is now the case for Slovenia in 2007, Slovakia in 2009 and Estonia in 2011. Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Romania prefer only to stabilize their currency for the moment. Despite the strong economic dynamic of these countries before the Subprime crisis, the impact reveals the incapacity for several of them to improve currencies stabilities. The theoretical approach about Mundell-Fleming trilemma informs the necessity to scarify monetary policy in a context of free financial market and fixed exchange rate. In a reality, the capacity to use fiscal policy appears supplementary indeed more efficient.

  15. Exchange rate smoothing in Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Karádi, Péter

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a structural empirical model capable of examining exchange rate smoothing in the small, open economy of Hungary. The framework assumes the existence of an unobserved and changing implicit exchange rate target. The central bank is assumed to use interest rate policy to obtain this preferred rate in the medium term, while market participants are assumed to form rational expectations about this target and influence exchange rates accordingly. The paper applies unobserved varia...

  16. Areva - First quarter 2009 revenue climbs 8.5% to 3.003 billion euros; Areva - Progression du chiffre d'affaires du 1. trimestre 2009: + 8,5% a 3003 millions d'euros

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-04-15

    First quarter 2009 revenue was up 8.5% compared with the same period last year, to 3.003 billion euros. At constant exchange rates and consolidation scope, growth came to 3.9%. Currency translation had a positive impact of 57 million euros over the quarter. Changes in the consolidation scope had an impact of 66 million euros, primarily due to the consolidation of acquisitions made in 2008 in Transmission and Distribution and in Renewable Energies. The growth engines for first quarter revenue were the Reactors and Services division and the Transmission and Distribution division, with growth of 9.2% and 16.1% respectively. Outside France, revenue rose to 2.032 billion euros, compared with 1.857 billion euros in the first quarter of 2008, and represents 68% of total revenue. Orders were steady in the first quarter, particularly in the Front End, which posted several significant contracts with US and Asian utilities, and in Transmission and Distribution, with orders up sharply in Asia and South America. As of March 31, 2009, the group's backlog reached 49.5 billion euros, for 28.3% growth year-on-year, including 31.3% growth in Nuclear and 10.2% in Transmission and Distribution. For the year as a whole, the group confirms its outlook for backlog and revenue growth as well as rising operating income It should be noted that revenue may vary significantly from one quarter to the next in nuclear operations. Accordingly, quarterly data cannot be viewed as a reliable indicator of annual trends.

  17. Comparison between Euro NCAP test results and real-world crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullgren, Anders; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

    2010-12-01

    The objective of this study was 2-fold: first, to compare Euro NCAP safety ratings of cars with those published by the Folksam real-world injury ratings; and second, to compare injury risk measures between Euro NCAP 2 and 5 Star cars with real-world injury and disability outcomes using police and insurance injury data. Car models were grouped according to the Euro NCAP star rating scores. Folksam risk of injury ratings come from statistical analysis of real-world crashes using police and insurance databases. The paired comparison method using 2-car crashes was used to control for crash speed and the mass differences between cars of different weights were normalized. For all comparisons, 5-star rated Euro NCAP cars were found to have a lower risk of injury compared to 2-star rated cars (5-star cars were 10% ± 2.5% lower risk than 2-star cars). For fatal and serious injuries, the difference was 23 ± 8 percent, and for fatal injuries alone the difference was 68 ± 32 percent. By comparison, the Folksam 5-star rated cars had a relative risk of 0.020 ± 0.0024, whereas 2-star rated car risk was 0.028 ± 0.0016, corresponding to a 27 percent difference in risk between 5- and 2-star cars. Good correlation was found between Euro NCAP test results and real-world injury outcomes. The largest difference in injury risk between 2- and 5-star rated cars in Euro NCAP was found for risk of fatality, confirming that car manufacturers have focused their safety performance on serious crash outcomes. In addition, Euro NCAP crash tests were shown to be highly correlated with serious crash performance, confirming their relevance for evaluating real-world crash performance. Good concordance was found between Euro NCAP and Folksam real-world crash and injury ratings.

  18. Exchange Rate Policy in Philippine Development

    OpenAIRE

    Bautista, Romeo M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the conduct of exchange rate policy in the Philippines since the early 1980s, paying particular attention to the influence of exchange rate adjustments on relative production incentives. While primary interest is in the exchange rate regime and its incentive effects, the role of trade policy has to be simultaneously analyzed in view of its influence on the conduct of exchange rate policy as well as its direct effect on the real exchange rate. Moreover, there are analytical...

  19. Rating agencies: role and influence of their sovereign credit risk assessment in the Euro area

    OpenAIRE

    Sibert, Anne

    2012-01-01

    Credit ratings have a huge impact on the access to and costs of funding, regardless whether the rated entity is a private enterprise or a sovereign borrower. Since the beginning of the financial crisis there has been a vivid and controversial debate about methods, timing and procedures used by these agencies. In this compilation of five notes provided by members of the Monetary Expert Panel the role of the rating agencies and their influence on the euro area is discussed in more detail.

  20. Areva: 1. quarter 2015 revenue down, at euros 1.762 bn: -1.1% vs. March 2014 (-0.9% like for like)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repaire, Philippine du

    2015-01-01

    In the 1. quarter of 2015, AREVA generated consolidated revenue of 1.762 billion euros, representing a decrease of 1.1% (-0.9% like for like) compared with the same period in 2014. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 36 million euros over the period, while consolidation scope had a negative impact of 39 million euros. At March 31, 2015, the group had 47.520 billion euros in backlog, a 1.4% increase in relation to December 31, 2014 (46.866 billion euros) reflecting a favorable foreign exchange impact. It should be noted that the backlog does not include the amount from agreements signed with EDF in October 2013 for the EPR reactors project at Hinkley Point in the United Kingdom or for the related fuel. The order intake totaled 881 million euros in the 1. quarter of 2015, an increase compared with the 1. quarter of 2014 (668 million euros)

  1. The effects of exchange rate on balance trade and on monetary aggregates of macedonia and the impact of the current world crisis in its economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr.Sc. Kadishe Limani

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Macedonia is a country that is close related to the European Union countries where the majority of the Macedonian foreign trade is with the European Union countries (52%. So the Macedonian economy is in a high level dependency of Euro.  Since Denar is connected closely to Euro, and the level of its usage in everyday economic activity is close to the usage of Denar, it is obvious to be discussed as a dilemma whether Macedonia should have Euro as its currency. However, the problem lies in that whether it is the right time for such action as the best solution for Macedonian economy, keeping in mind the fact that in the international arena there is present a second crisis that is the crisis of Euro-Zone. Based on various sources and on our econometric results, in this paper is argued and supported the main hypothesis that the fix exchange rate for Macedonia is a more optimal choice in comparison with the unilateral euroisation and flexible exchange rate. Thus, during the research we found out some arguments that support the existing regime, such as: under a flexible regime an eventual devaluation of the Denar is more possible, which can lead to more negative effects on the economy than benefits. Thus, devaluation of the Denar will have no significant effects on the balance trade (export and imports and GDP. This means that the competitiveness of a country relies on the other factors. In addition an eventual devaluation of the Denar, it will not have significant effects on monetary aggregates (M2 and M4 due to the asset substitution from Denar deposits to foreign deposits and vice-versa.

  2. Can Exchange Rates Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Siriwutiset, Trin

    2007-01-01

    Foreign exchange rates produce significant impacts on both the macroeconomic and microeconomic scale. Countries� government and multinational companies have been seeking ways to stabilize the exchange rates for a few decades. However, there is no perfect consensus on methods to control and stabilize the exchange rates. In fact, there are several occasions in history where turbulence movements caused crisis in the economies. There are several factors that are identified by economis...

  3. AREVA at December 31, 2012: Sales revenue growth to euro 9.342 bn (+5.3% vs. 2011), led by nuclear and renewables operations; Backlog replenished in 2012 to euro 45.4 bn thanks to the increase in order intake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duperray, Julien; Berezowskyj, Katherine; Kempkes, Vincent; Rosso, Jerome; Thebault, Alexandre; Scorbiac, Marie de; Repaire, Philippine du

    2013-01-01

    AREVA had 9.342 billion euros in consolidated sales revenue in 2012, an increase of 5.3% compared with 2011 (+4.4% like for like). This increase reflects growth in both nuclear and renewables operations: - the nuclear operations reported sales revenue of 8.633 billion euros in 2012, compared with 8.426 billion euros in 2011, a 2.4% increase. On a reported basis, growth was led by the Mining Business Group (+5.5%), the Reactors and Services BG (+7.1%) and the Back End BG (+9.5%), offsetting the expected decrease in business in the Front End BG (-10.2%); - the Renewable Energies BG reported 572 million euros in sales revenue, a sharp increase in relation to 2011 (+92.3%); - foreign exchange had a positive impact of 159 million euros over the period, while changes in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 83 million euros. Fourth quarter 2012 sales revenue totaled 2.799 billion euros. It was down 4.2% on a reported basis (-4.1% like for like), chiefly due to a lower level of activity in the Mining BG compared with a particularly high fourth quarter 2011 and following three consecutive quarters of strong growth for the BG. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 29 million euros over the period. Changes in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 31 million euros for the quarter. The group's backlog of 45.4 billion euros at December 31, 2012 was stable in relation to December 31, 2011 (45.6 billion euros). The 10.4% increase in nuclear order intake (a total of 8% for the group) compensated for the activity level growth in 2012 and cancellations of orders in nuclear operations following the Fukushima accident (for a total amount of 936 million euros, compared with 464 million euros at December 31, 2011 and 742 million euros at September 30, 2012)

  4. Exchange Rate Determinants in Russia; 1992-1993

    OpenAIRE

    Vincent Koen; Eric Meyermans

    1994-01-01

    This paper examines the evolution of the exchange rate of the ruble vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from exchange rate unification, in July 1992, to the end of 1993. The expected and actual paths of the exchange rate are related to the exchange and trade regime and to the stance of financial and exchange rate policies. An econometric analysis based on weekly data is offered, which suggests that monetary factors have a significant impact on the short run behavior of the exchange rate.

  5. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Rossi; Daniel Leigh

    2002-01-01

    In light of the strong correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic prices in Turkey, it is important to assess the impact of the exchange rate on domestic prices, in particular as Turkey moves to an inflation targeting regime. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression model to investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on prices in Turkey. We find that (i) the impact of the exchange rate on prices is over after about a year, but is mostly felt in the first four mon...

  6. The foreign exchange rate rate exposure of nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  7. Real exchange rate misalignments

    OpenAIRE

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.; Valladares, Frederico Estrella Carneiro

    2003-01-01

    This paper characterizes episodes of real appreciations and depreciations for a sample of 85 countries, approximately from 1960 to 1998. First, the equilibrium real exchange rate series are constructed for each country using Goldfajn and Valdes (1999) methodology (cointegration with fundamentals). Then, departures from equilibrium real exchange rate (misalignments) are obtained, and a Markov Switching Model is used to characterize the misalignments series as stochastic autor...

  8. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  9. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  10. Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Relationship in BRIC-T Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Selim KAYHAN; Tayfur BAYAT; Ahmet UGUR

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the dynamic relationships between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate in the BRIC-T (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Turkey) countries by employing monthly data from the beginning of flexible exchange rate regime to July 2011. For this aim, non-linear causality test and frequency domain causality test approaches are used. According to frequency domain causality test results, interest rate affects exchange rate in only China and this effect exist only in the ...

  11. THE CHOICE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ACCESSION COUNTRIES INFLUENCED BY THE WORLD CURRENCY CONSOLIDATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Frâncu

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available The pressure of the currency consolidation increased in the years 1990 as the world currency system became obviously too complicated and too costly. There are too many national currencies that generate artificial barriers and avoidable transaction costs, both for the domestic economies and for the world economy. The high costs and great vulnerability of the national currencies determined the financial and economic business of small open economies to move into the major currencies of the world. The world needs fewer national currencies, but does it need fewer central banks too? Or it needs central banks capable to pursuit sound monetary policies? What kind of institutional arrangements and international financial architecture are most suitable for the prospective environment of a greatly reduced multiplicity of currencies? A regional currency consolidation may be a good answer but a regional currency union is a better answer. Though, until membership of the Euro zone, what kind of the exchange rate regime is more suitable for Romania and other European Union accession countries? The hard peg regimes seem not to be a good solution. The best solution lays probable between managed floating regimes and intermediate regimes. This may be because emerging markets have both “fear of floating” and “fear of fixing”. But there is no ideal exchange rate regime”to suit everybody”. Once the exchange rate regime chosen, it evolves in time. So is the case with the exchange rate benchmarks for the national currency.

  12. Diesel passenger car PM emissions: From Euro 1 to Euro 4 with particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzamkiozis, Theodoros; Ntziachristos, Leonidas; Samaras, Zissis

    2010-03-01

    This paper examines the impact of the emission control and fuel technology development on the emissions of gaseous and, in particular, PM pollutants from diesel passenger cars. Three cars in five configurations in total were measured, and covered the range from Euro 1 to Euro 4 standards. The emission control ranged from no aftertreatment in the Euro 1 case, an oxidation catalyst in Euro 2, two oxidation catalysts and exhaust gas recirculation in Euro 3 and Euro 4, while a catalyzed diesel particle filter (DPF) fitted in the Euro 4 car led to a Euro 4 + DPF configuration. Both certification test and real-world driving cycles were employed. The results showed that CO and HC emissions were much lower than the emission standard over the hot-start real-world cycles. However, vehicle technologies from Euro 2 to Euro 4 exceeded the NOx and PM emission levels over at least one real-world cycle. The NOx emission level reached up to 3.6 times the certification level in case of the Euro 4 car. PM were up to 40% and 60% higher than certification level for the Euro 2 and Euro 3 cars, while the Euro 4 car emitted close or slightly below the certification level over the real-world driving cycles. PM mass reductions from Euro 1 to Euro 4 were associated with a relevant decrease in the total particle number, in particular over the certification test. This was not followed by a respective reduction in the solid particle number which remained rather constant between the four technologies at 0.86 × 10 14 km -1 (coefficient of variation 9%). As a result, the ratio of solid vs. total particle number ranged from ˜50% in Euro 1-100% in Euro 4. A significant reduction of more than three orders of magnitude in solid particle number is achieved with the introduction of the DPF. However, the potential for nucleation mode formation at high speed from the DPF car is an issue that needs to be considered in the over all assessment of its environmental benefit. Finally, comparison of the

  13. The Danish Euro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn Sørensen, Anders

    2014-01-01

    In this article, I analyse the political debate leading up to the Danish euro referendum in 2000. I show how the euro-positive government unintentionally reinforced the arguments of the euro-sceptics by framing the euro as something belonging to the nation-state. I argue that this paradoxical...... campaign strategy stems from the Danish conceptualisation of nation and state and from the close connection between national currencies and feelings of community and citizenship more general. The analysis confirms the suggestion made by Gilbert that new monetary organisation, such as European Monetary...

  14. The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports

    OpenAIRE

    Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses panel data cointegration techniques to study the impacts of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility on total exports for a panel of 42 developing countries from 1975 to 2004. The results show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. The results also illustrate that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on s...

  15. A Case for Intermediate Exchange-Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Agnès Bénassy-Quéré; Véronique Salins

    2010-01-01

    Despite increasing capital mobility and the subsequent difficulty in controlling exchange rates, intermediate exchange-rate regimes have remained widespread, especially in emerging and developing economies. This piece of evidence hardly fits the "impossible Trinity" theory arguing that it becomes difficult to control the exchange rate without a "hard" device when capital flows are freed. Calvo and Reinhart (2000) have suggested several explanations for such "fear of floating": exchange rate p...

  16. Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Quader, Syed Manzur

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many developing countries having a history of high inflation, unfavorable balance of payment situation and a high level of foreign currencies denominated debt, have switched or are in the process of switching to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before to prevent financial crises and macroeconomic disturbances. This paper is designed to find out the reasons behind Bangla...

  17. Financial and economic approach: Financial & banking sector development pact from the perspective of the euro area European economic policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoropoulos Theodore E.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Powerful obstacles to the further integration of repot, bond and equity markets remain the still fragmented securities settlement industry in Europe, which charges much higher fees for cross border transactions than for domestic transactions, and differences in legal systems. This paper describes the main developments in the euro area financial markets before and after the introduction of the single currency. It looks at the evolution of the euro area financial structure in the last few years. Interestingly in various dimensions the financial structure of euro area countries seems to become more diverse over time. We assess the progress towards financial integration in the most important euro-area financial segments, namely money and equity markets, as well as banking. The available data suggest that the unsecured money market strongly integrated with the introduction of the euro, as the single currency and related euro-area-wide large-value payment systems link the different countries well. Also, some progress occurred in the integration of euro-area equity markets, as stock exchanges in a few countries merged to form Euronext and professional asset managers replaced country allocation by sector allocation strategies. Overall, while asset holdings have become more international in the euro area since the introduction of the single currency, securities markets are still much less integrated than in the US. In the area of retail banking the increased homogeneity of interest rates seems to be driven more by macroeconomic convergence than by market integration. In addition we consider a wide range of other determinants, such as foreign debt or net foreign assets, terms of trade, government debt and regulated prices.

  18. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won-Am Park

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

  19. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...

  20. Is Switzerland an interest rate island after all? Time series and non-linear switching regime evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.

    2015-01-01

    Has the “Swiss interest rate anomaly” persisted after the financial crisis? Regarding the hypothesis that the Swiss interest rate anomaly results from systemic risk anticipation, we discuss whether Switzerland remains an interest rate island in the wake of the financial crisis. We find evidence for the demise of the interest rate bonus of the Swiss franc (CHF) vis-à-vis the Euro (EUR) after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) started to advocate an exchange rate floor with the Euro. After the compr...

  1. Areva at September 30, 2012: Backlog at a record level of euros 47 bn (+10.1% year on year). Revenue up sharply to euros 6.542 bn (+10.0% compared with September 2011, +8.5% like for like)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marie, Patricia; Briand, Pauline; Thebault, Alexandre; Rosso, Jerome; Scorbiac, Marie de; Repaire, Philippine du

    2012-01-01

    AREVA generated consolidated revenue of 6.542 billion euros over the first nine months of 2012, representing growth of 10.0% (+8.5% growth like for like) compared with the same period in 2011. Revenue growth was fueled by a 7.0% increase in recurring business (+5.6% like for like) and ramp-up of the renewable business. Revenue from nuclear operations was 6.035 billion euros over the first nine months of 2012, compared with 5.731 billion euros for the first nine months of 2011, representing a 5.3% increase (+3.9% like for like). Like for like, revenue was led by the Mining BG (+28.0%), the Reactors and Services BG (+2.1%) and the Back End BG (+11.8%), offsetting the downturn in business in the Front End BG (-12.1%). Revenue was up 272% like for like in renewable energies. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 130 million euros over the period. The change in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 52 million euros. Revenue growth was balanced between France and internationally, reflecting AREVA's ability to capture market opportunities while capitalizing on long-standing relations with its customers. Sales revenue for the third quarter of 2012 was 2.214 billion euros, an increase of 13.4% (+12.4% like for like) compared with the third quarter of 2011. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 52 million euros over the period, while the change in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 34 million euros. At September 30, 2012, the consolidated backlog for the nuclear and renewable energy businesses was the highest since the Group was established, at a total of 47 billion euros. This represents an increase of 10.1% in relation to September 30, 2011 (42.7 billion euros) and an increase of 4.1% in relation to June 30, 2012 (45.2 billion euros). The increase is attributable mainly to the Mining, Front End and Reactors and Services BGs. Order intakes over the first nine months of the year were up 87% compared with first nine months of 2011. Order cancellations

  2. Areva - 2013 revenue of euro 9.3 bn thanks to sustained level of activity. Organic growth in the nuclear operations: + 7%, above our financial outlook. Backlog of euro 41.6 bn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duperray, Julien; Berezowskyj, Katherine; Grange, Aurelie; Rosso, Jerome; Thebault, Alexandre; Scorbiac, Marie de; Repaire, Philippine du

    2014-01-01

    Two years after Fukushima, AREVA's level of activity was especially strong in 2013. The group outperformed its revenue outlook for nuclear operations with an organic growth of 7.1%. With more than 9 billion euros, the group's revenue benefited from the robustness of the recurring activities and from temporary elements, such as exceptionally high uranium sales. This growth demonstrates the resilience of Areva's end market, despite unfavourable current conditions, and the efficient match between its commercial offers and customers' expectations. Capitalizing on this dynamic, the group will continue its recovery in order to sustainably self-finance its capital expenditures. After the announcement on January 20, 2014 of exclusive negotiations with Gamesa for the creation of a joint company in the offshore wind field (50% AREVA, 50% Gamesa), and in accordance with IFRS 5 accounting standard, revenue generated by the Wind Energy business is not included in group revenue for 2012 and 2013 and the result of this business will be presented on a separate line, 'net income from discontinued operations' in the 2013 financial statements. In 2013, AREVA had consolidated revenue of 9.303 billion euros, an increase of 3.8% (+6.3% like for like) compared with 2012 benefiting from strong organic growth in the nuclear operations: - Revenue in the nuclear operations was 9.042 billion euros in 2013, compared with 8.633 billion euros in 2012, a 7.1% increase (+4.7% on a reported basis). Revenue was led by the Mining BG (+40.6% like for like) and the Front End BG (+7.5% like for like), offsetting the expected business downturn in the Reactors and Services BG (-1.5% like for like). Revenue was stable in the Back End BG (-0.6% like for like). - The Renewable Energies BG had 132 million euros in revenue, down from 2012 (-24.7% like for like). - Foreign exchange had a negative impact of 101 million euros, while the change in consolidation scope and accounting methods had a negative impact of

  3. Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Richard M. Levich

    1983-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical research completed over the last decade has dramatically increased our understanding of exchange rate behavior. The major insight to come from this decade of research is that foreign exchange is a financial asset. In an asset pricing framework, current exchange rates reflect the expected values of future exogenous variables. The purpose of this paper is to survay the empirical evidence on exchange rate behavior, market efficiency and related topics. Section 2 present...

  4. Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe; Param Silvapulle

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical n...

  5. The foreign exchange market interventions of the European Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Frenkel

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventionsconducted by the European Central Bank (ECB in the fall of 2000 to support the external stability of the euro. To this end, we discuss different channels through whichinterventions may influence exchange rate dynamics. We use the insights provided by the theoretical and empirical literature to evaluate the effectiveness of theintervention policy of the ECB. In addition, we present an empirical analysis in which we use intra-daily exchange rate data to examine in detail the effects of theinterventions. We find that the interventions only had a rather short-term impact on the exchange rate path and had no effects beyond the short term. Therefore, our results suggest that the intervention policy of the ECB was not effective.

  6. Search for a new exchange-rate regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, J

    1987-07-31

    The regime of unmanaged floating exchange rates was implicitly judged a failure when, with the Plaza Agreement, attempts at cooperative exchange-rate management were reintroduced primarily because of concern at the size of misalignments. Any satisfactory successor regime will need to limit misalignments while retaining the genuine social benefits of exchange-rate flexibility. It is argued that a system of target zones for exchange rates, ideally embedded in a more comprehensive set of guidelines for international economic policy coordination, could best reconcile these needs.

  7. An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Rantala, Olavi

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...

  8. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  9. Aspects of Price Competitiveness in the Context of Preparing for Accession to the Euro Zone. New Challenges for Entrepreneurs. Romania’s Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the process of preparing a state for the accession to the Euro Zone it is essential to analyze the price competitiveness of that state’s economy and the challenges that entrepreneurs will have to face in the new economic environment. In the present paper the authors want to capture some aspects of the competitiveness of the Romanian economy and implicit its entrepreneurs with emphasis on price competitiveness, whereas accession to the Euro Zone implies giving up to the independence of exchange rate policy, with a huge impact on price competitiveness. For this purpose this study will highlight a few elements on the relative importance of price competitiveness of entrepreneurs’ exports performance. The process of accessing Euro Zone creates significant changes in the existing way of conducting business and impacts significantly entire business environment – and this will become evident also for Romania.

  10. The Deceptive Resilience of Fixed Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Mushin, Jerry

    2004-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate systems since 1978. Despite the accelerating trend in favour of floating exchange rates, a substantial minority of IMF members have continued to fix the value of their currencies. The recent incidence of each of the principal types of exchange-rate peg is described.

  11. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

    2014-04-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

  12. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  13. Areva revenue growth in the first quarter of 2010: 8.4% like-for-like, i.e. 1.936 billion euros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The group's first quarter 2010 consolidated revenue rose 6.5% to 1.936 billion euros (+8.4% LFL) compared with the first quarter of 2009. Growth was driven by the Reactors and Services Business Group (+18.0% LFL). Revenue from exports was up 16.6% to 1.089 billion euros, representing 56.2% of total revenue. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of 26 million euros. Changes in consolidation scope were negligible during the period. The group's backlog of 43.6 billion euros at March 31, 2010 was stable in relation to December 31, 2009. Growth in the backlog of the Reactors and Services Business Group helped offset the drawdown of the backlog in the Back End Business Group as contracts were completed. For the full year of 2010, the group confirms its outlook for significant backlog and revenue growth, rising operating income, and a strong increase in net income attributable to owners of the parent. Mining/Front End Business Group: The Mining/Front End BG reported first quarter 2010 revenue of 674 million euros, which was stable on a reported basis and up 3.5% LFL1. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of 16 million euros. - In Mining, quarterly revenue was driven by volume growth due to a favorable delivery schedule. - In Enrichment and Fuel, volumes were down compared with the first quarter of 2009, particularly due to time-lag in customer deliveries. Reactors and Services Business Group: Revenue for the Reactors and Services BG was up 16.4% in the first quarter of 2010 (up 18.0% LFL1), to 775 million euros. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of 10 million euros. - The New Builds Business reported strong growth due to significant progress on major reactor construction projects, particularly Taishan in China. - Installed Base Business was also up due to buoyant engineering operations, particularly in Germany, and to the more favorable seasonality of unit outage campaigns than in the first quarter of 2009. Back End Business Group: First quarter 2010 revenue for

  14. Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Salazar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.

  15. Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia: Intra-regional Transmissions of Exchange Rate Policies after the Crisis (in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    OHNO Sanae; FUKUDA Shin-ichi

    2003-01-01

    Since the onset of the Asian crisis, what characterizes the East Asian exchange rates has been a topic of considerable discussion. In the pre-crisis period, the de facto pegs to the U.S. dollar sometimes destabilized the real "effective" exchange rates of these currencies. Several economists have, thus, proposed the desirability of intermediate exchange rate regimes in East Asia that might stabilize their effective exchange rates. The post-crisis experience in East Asia, however, taught us th...

  16. On exchange rate misalignments in the Eurozone's peripheral countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grochová, Ladislava; Plecitá, Klára

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we model equilibrium exchange rates for the Eurozone's countries on the basis of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach, which assumes, that equilibrium exchange rates are in the long run affected by economic fundamentals. To assess the degree of exchange rate misalignment for the Eurozone's peripheral countries - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - the gap between the actual and the modelled equilibrium exchange rate value is calculated. Our results show that Spain, Portugal and Ireland had their real exchange rates in equilibrium when they joined the Eurozone; however their real exchange rates have been persistently overvalued since the beginning of the 2000s. Greece, on the other hand, has experienced diminishing undervaluation at the beginning of its membership in the Eurozone and since 2009 has exhibited an overvalued real exchange rate.

  17. A new assessment of floating exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Waimann, D. R.

    1981-01-01

    The switch to floating exchange rates during the 1970s has given economists the first comprehensive opportunity to assess the arguments for and against floating. Much new work has been done on various aspects of floating exchange rate behaviour. This article attempts a limited survey of the evidence concerning two important issues—whether floating exchange rates are inherently unstable and whether they harm international trade.

  18. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show

  19. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the

  20. 14 CFR 65.43 - Rating privileges and exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Rating privileges and exchange. 65.43... § 65.43 Rating privileges and exchange. (a) The holder of a senior rating on August 31, 1970, may at any time after that date exchange his rating for a facility rating at the same air traffic control...

  1. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; van Veen, T.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future

  2. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members : Evidence from real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom)

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future

  3. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Southern African Business Review ... This finding is inconsistent with the monetary model of exchange rate determination, which asserts that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate ... Key words: Exchange rates, monetary model, autoregressive distributed lag, cointegration, exchange rate overshooting ...

  4. Roots of the weaknesses of the euro. Euro nõrkuste juured

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mart Sõrg

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the euro was to speed up the integration process and economic development in Europe. History of euro showed us that these optimistic goals have been only partly fulfilled. This modest result has several essential roots. Our research showed that Europe have not been and is even not today the optimal currency area. The architecture of the EMU was incomplete: in building up it was not given enough power to ECB, also were underestimated vitality national interests in member states. Therefore common interests in euro area were not enough protected. Last global financial and economic crisis showed clearly main weaknesses of euro and enforced to start to liquidate them. We conclude that resent reforms and enlargement of the EMU (Estonia probably will strengthen this union

  5. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  6. Exchange Rate Regime in Russia, Evaluation and Recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Olga, Vasilevskaya

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies exchange rate choice in Russia with respect to social, economic and political determinants. The study deliberately narrowed the scope of the discussion to two extreme cases, i.e. fixed and floating exchange rate. Today Russia applies managed floating exchange rate arrangement and it is important to determine the direction of the further monetary policy development either towards fixed or floating exchange rate. The paper argues that the logical extension of the historical t...

  7. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  8. A STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE HOTEL INDUSTRY FROM BIHOR AND HAJDÚ-BIHAR COUNTIES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE (EURO REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BORMA Afrodita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This research has in sight the Bihor – Hajdú-Bihar Euroregion located at the border between Romania (in the north-western part and Hungary (in the east. The research methodology that was used consisted in the statistical data collection in order to gather representative information on the evolution of tourism for the 2008 - 2011, in Bihor – Hajdú-Bihar Euroregion. In the first part of the research is presented an analysis regarding the evolution of the number of tourists within the tourist accommodation establishments in the Bihor – Hajdú-Bihar Euroregion. The analysis is based on the following aspects: the evolution of the number of tourists within the Bihor – Hajdú-Bihar Euroregion is presented; a comparison regarding the number of national tourists registered in the two counties belonging to the Bihor – Hajdú-Bihar Euroregion and finally an analysis based on the number of foreign tourists registered within the two counties belonging to the Bihor – Hajdú-Bihar Euroregion. In the second part of the research, the study continues with the analysis of the activities of the hotel units from Bihor and Hajdú-Bihar starting from the data obtained from the Bihor County Statistics Department, for Bihor County, and from the Debrecen Central Statistics Office, for the Hajdú-Bihar data. The research covers the period from 2008 - 2011, following the indicators regarding: the number of active units, turnover, and employee related expenses, staff and gross investments in tangible assets. This statistical and economic analysis presents on one hand the centralization of the indicators used within a table, (initially, in a rough form and subsequently in a shaped form based on the annual average exchange rates of the leu and forint compared to the euro during 2008-2011 and on the other the evolution of each indicator in chart form. Due to the fact that a part of the analyzed indicators are expressed in the national currency of the two

  9. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  10. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given to the rationale for choosing one type of regime over another and how the variations in the nominal or real exchange rate affect the economies of these countries. This Ph.D. thesis is a combination ...

  11. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results indicated that exchange rate ...

  12. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  13. EFECT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2, F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date is more effective in explaining economic trend in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect GDP in fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time in Nigeria.  The study thus conclude that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicate that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it is evident that oil revenue has positive effect in Nigeria and has remained the mainstay

  14. China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Tao Wang

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important ...

  15. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given

  16. A Continuous-Time Model for Valuing Foreign Exchange Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Kung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes use of stochastic calculus to develop a continuous-time model for valuing European options on foreign exchange (FX when both domestic and foreign spot rates follow a generalized Wiener process. Using the dollar/euro exchange rate as input for parameter estimation and employing our FX option model as a yardstick, we find that the traditional Garman-Kohlhagen FX option model, which assumes constant spot rates, values incorrectly calls and puts for different values of the ratio of exchange rate to exercise price. Specifically, it undervalues calls when the ratio is between 0.70 and 1.08, and it overvalues calls when the ratio is between 1.18 and 1.30, whereas it overvalues puts when the ratio is between 0.70 and 0.82, and it undervalues puts when the ratio is between 0.86 and 1.30.

  17. Impulse Response of the Exchange Rate Volatility to a Foreign Exchange Intervention Shock

    OpenAIRE

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses Lin's technique (1997) to report on the impulse response function analysis that traces the dynamics of exchange rate volatility from innovations in Japanese foreign exchange intervention. Using a multivariate GARCH model, we employed a volatility impulse response function based on Lin (1997) to detect the impulse response of exchange rate volatility on a one-unit foreign exchange intervention shock. The main findings of t his paper are as follows: (1) a foreign exchange inter...

  18. Increasing Stability in the Mix of Exchange-rate Policies.

    OpenAIRE

    Mushin, Jerry

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate policy systems since 1996 and a comparison with the experience of 1978 to 1995. Exchange-rate policy has become more stable than it was in the earlier period. In addition, it has become polarized, with almost all countries choosing either a fixed exchange-rate regime (especially in low-GDP countries) or a floating exchange-rate regime (especially in high-GDP countries). Limited-flexibility exchange-rate systems have become unimpo...

  19. The influence of interest rates on the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Florin MAVRIS; Dumitru-Cristian OANEA

    2014-01-01

    The dynamic of interest rates has been the subject of attention by both traders and researchers. We see in what manner different factors that depend on the actions of central banks that influence them by using a GARCH type model and we compare its performance with other models to see what approach explains and predicts the movement of the exchange rate. To better understand the type of model that is applicable the data is tested for heteroskedasticity, and only after that the model is impleme...

  20. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  1. Sparseness and Roughness of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewalle, N.; Ausloos, M.

    An accurate multiaffine analysis of 23 foreign currency exchange rates has been performed. The roughness exponent H1 which characterizes the excursion of the exchange rate has been numerically measured. The degree of intermittency C1 has been also estimated. In the (H1,C1) phase diagram, the currency exchange rates are dispersed in a wide region around the Brownian motion value (H1=0.5,C1=0) and have a significantly intermittent component (C1≠0).

  2. Innovative MAN Euro V engines without exhaust aftertreatment; Innovative MAN Euro V Motorisierung ohne Abgasnachbehandlung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Held, W.; Raab, G.; Schaller, K.V.; Gotre, W.; Lehmann, H.; Moeller, H.; Schroeppel, W. [MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG, Muenchen (Germany); MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG, Nuernberg (Germany); MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG, Steyr (Austria)

    2009-07-01

    MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG (Munich, Federal Republic of Germany) always is eager to offer products for the respective markets whereby the products are interesting for the customer under economic criteria. Additionally, the products shall not lack in the travelling comfort under consideration of the legal emission borders. Thus, a AdBlue {sup registered} free technology for all MAN series was already offered before the legal introduction of EURO IV. This technology is based on an internal-motor solution with external, cooled AGR and a PM-Cat {sup registered} -filter. This solution is esteemed highly by our customers because apart from the well-known advantages in relation to a SCR technology there were no losses with the operating cost. With EURO V which is inserted in some countries MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG returns to a long-term experience with SCR technology. The motivation for the development of a AdBlue {sup registered} free solution was the positive feedback of our customers on the basis of MAN EURO IV AGR/PM Cat technology. With the developed EURO V AGR solution, other EURO IV solutions in line with market conditions for the 'Emerging markets' can be derived with which a technology without exhaust post-treatment can be offered worldwide for our customers. This technology presents the basis for a platform concept EURO IV/V and EURO VI. In this concept, EURO IV can be presented without subsequent treatment of exhaust gases, EURO V in connection with an Oxicat and EURO VI with a SCRT system. Here, the vehicle/engine concept presents the most important components for the individual series in particular. By means of these components, the goal EURO V was achieved internal-motor without losses of operating cost and life span in relation to SCR technologies.

  3. The determinants of exchange rates and the movements of EUR/RON exchange rate via non-linear stochastic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrică Andreea-Cristina

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling exchange rate volatility became an important topic for research debate starting with 1973, when many countries switched to floating exchange rate system. In this paper, we focus on the EUR/RON exchange rate both as an economic measure and present the implied economic links, and also as a financial investment and analyze its movements and fluctuations through two volatility stochastic processes: the Standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (GARCH and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (EGARCH. The objective of the conditional variance processes is to capture dependency in the return series of the EUR/RON exchange rate. On this account, analyzing exchange rates could be seen as the input for economic decisions regarding Romanian macroeconomics - the exchange rates being influenced by many factors such as: interest rates, inflation, trading relationships with other countries (imports and exports, or investments - portfolio optimization, risk management, asset pricing. Therefore, we talk about political stability and economic performance of a country that represents a link between the two types of inputs mentioned above and influences both the macroeconomics and the investments. Based on time-varying volatility, we examine implied volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using the standard GARCH model and the asymmetric EGARCH model, whose parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method and the error terms follow two distributions (Normal and Student’s t. The empirical results show EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 and Student’s t error terms distribution performs better than all the estimated standard GARCH models (GARCH(1,1, GARCH(1,2, GARCH(2,1 and GARCH(2,2. This conclusion is supported by the major advantage of the EGARCH model compared to the GARCH model which consists in allowing good and bad news having different impact on the

  4. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  5. Exchange-rate regimes and economic growth: An empirical evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Simón Sosvilla-Rivero; María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    2014-01-01

    Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth,...

  6. Exchange rate behavior with negative interest rates: Some early negative observations

    OpenAIRE

    Hameed, Allaudeen S.; Rose, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines exchange rate behavior during the recent period with negative nominal interest rates. We use a daily panel of data on 61 currencies from January 2010 through May 2016, during which five economies - Denmark, the European Economic and Monetary Union, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland - experienced negative nominal interest rates. We examine both effective exchange rates and bilateral rates; the latter typically measured against the Swiss franc since Switzerland has had the long...

  7. Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawal Adedoyin Isola

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of four profound theories: purchasing power parity; monetary model of exchange rates; the portfolio balance approach; and the optimal currency area theory. Data was collected from the CBN statistical bulletin in Nigeria from 2003– 2013and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model was employed to estimate the model. In the model, real GDP (RGDP was used as the proxy for economic growth while Inflation rate (IF, Exchange rate (EXC, Interest rate (INT and Money Supply(M2 as proxies for other macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that exchange rate fluctuation has no effect on economic growth in the long run though a short run relationship exist between the two. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that the Central bank for policy purposes should ensure that stern foreign exchange control policies are put in place in order to help in appropriate determination of the value of the exchange rate. This will in the long run help to strengthen the value of the Naira.

  8. Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Borhan-Azad, Lida

    2006-01-01

    This dissertation aimed at testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak and semi-strong form using data on the black market spot exchange rates between Iranian currency (i.e., Rial) and four major foreign currencies including US Dollar, German Mark/Euro, UK Pound and Japanese Yen. The weak form efficiency is examined by unit root tests including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979, 1981) (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (1988) (PP) test. The results of these tests are con...

  9. 38 CFR 3.32 - Exchange rates for foreign currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Exchange rates for foreign currencies. When determining the rates of pension or parents' DIC or the amounts... parents' DIC. (1) Because exchange rates for foreign currencies cannot be determined in advance, rates of... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exchange rates for...

  10. AREVA net income: 649 million euros

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-15

    This document presents the financial statements for 2006 of Areva group: net income: 649 million euros; backlog up by 24.6% to 25.6 billion euros; steady growth of sales revenue: + 7.3%1 to 10.863 billion euros; operating income of 407 million euros: excellent divisional performance and constitution of a significant provision for the OL3 project in Finland; dividend proposed to Annual General Meeting of Shareholders: 8.46 euros per share.

  11. AREVA net income: 649 million euros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-03-01

    This document presents the financial statements for 2006 of Areva group: net income: 649 million euros; backlog up by 24.6% to 25.6 billion euros; steady growth of sales revenue: + 7.3%1 to 10.863 billion euros; operating income of 407 million euros: excellent divisional performance and constitution of a significant provision for the OL3 project in Finland; dividend proposed to Annual General Meeting of Shareholders: 8.46 euros per share

  12. Determining the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity – PPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bangun WIDOYOKO

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the effect of inflation on the issue of exchange rate determination of the forward exchange rate on the exchange rate of RMB (Renminbi to Rupiah. Inflation has been chosen as an independent variable because of its close relation to PPP (purchasing power parity theory. Analyses in this research have used logistic analysis with time series data. The data that has been used include exchange rate data with the period 2007-2017 with a sample size of 132 data. The results of this study have shown that inflation is effective in determining the exchange rate.

  13. Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

  14. Exchange Rate and the PRC Foreign Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izotov D. A.

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The stages of exchange rate regulation and foreign trade systems reforming in PRC during the period 1978-2008 are examined. A quantitative assessment of PRC foreign trade parameters reactions to the currency rate dynamics on the national and regional levels is made. Also the import and export impact of potential exchange rate changes is estimated

  15. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: The option approach

    OpenAIRE

    Franke, Günter

    1986-01-01

    Usually it is argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade since trading firms are risk averse. This paper shows for risk neutral firms that the expected international trade volume in standardized commodities grows with exchange rate volatility. The firms adjust their trade volume to the exchange rate level. The more favorable the exchange rate is, the higher is the export volume. If the rate drops below some level, exports are stopped. Thus in...

  16. [The Euro-orphans phenomenon and the courses in therapeutic work and psychiatric treatment--a case study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowak, Marta; Gaweda, Agnieszka; Janas-Kozik, Małgorzata

    2012-01-01

    Today, the phenomenon of Euro-orphan is more and more frequently reported in the literature. This term refers to children with one or both parents emigrated from the country for work purposes. In connection with the social transformations of orphan-hood types described in the literature (nature, spiritual, social), the definition has been broadened by the definition ofeuro-orphan. The Ministry of Education describes the euro-orphan as the destruction of the family structure, the disorder of the socialisation process of children and reduction of the emotional exchanges among family members, as a result of migration of their parents. It provides further that not every child whose parents are not present in the country is covered as an euro-orphan. However, this group has become an increasingly larger populations. Lack of physical proximity and accessibility of important persons may have some psychological and pedagogical implications. These in turn can be shaped over time, into pathological symptoms, which are diagnostic entities in developmental psychiatry. It is not know precisely how many children in Poland are Euro-orphans. The aim of this paper is an attempt to understand the social phenomenon of Euro-orphanhood in the light of the observed psychopathologies of children and adolescents. The case study of the psychotherapy of a patient suffering from the Euro-orphanhood syndrome. Euro-orphanhood is a social phenomenon that generates Euro-orphans with a wide range of psychopathological symptoms classified in different diagnostic categories. The type and intensification of the psychopathological symptoms depend on the quality of relationships with meaningful persons prior to the Euro-orphanhood period. The course of the psychotherapeutic work with Euro-orphans should cover an individual aspect taking into consideration the maturity of defensive mechanisms as well as the work-through of negative feelings cumulated due to becoming a Euro-orphan.

  17. Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile.

    OpenAIRE

    Jose De Gregorio; Andrea Tokman R.

    2004-01-01

    The paper reviews the exchange rate management experience in Chile, with particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate regime and its two forex intervention episodes. It presents evidence on Chile’s favorable conditions to face exchange rate shocks: a well-developed financial sector, that offers hedging opportunities taken up by the corporate sector to decrease its vulnerability through balance sheet effects; and a low and decreasing level of passthrough from the exchange rate to prices. ...

  18. The tail index of exchange rate returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); M. Schafgans (Marcia); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical distribution of foreign exchange rates there is now consensus that exchange rate yields are fat-tailed. Three problems, however, persist: (1) Which class of distribution functions is most appropriate? (2) Are the parameters of the distribution invariant

  19. The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984), we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  20. Exchange rates and climate change: An application of fund

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    As economic and emissions scenarios assume convergence of per capita incomes, they are sensitivity to the exchange rate used for international comparison. Particularly, developing countries are project to grow slower with a purchasing power exchange rate than with a market exchange rate. Different

  1. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  2. Exchange-Rate Unification with Black Market Leakages; Russia 1992

    OpenAIRE

    Linda S. Goldberg

    1993-01-01

    In 1992 Russia unified the multiple exchange rates that had applied to international transactions. This paper describes the multiple exchange rate system that existed in Russia prior to mid-1992 and undertakes a theoretical exploration of the effects of the exchange rate unification that took place in July 1992. The model developed here allows for leakages between official and black markets and permits flexibility of the exchange rates in both official and parallel currency markets. Within th...

  3. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Sang-Yong Joo; Chae-Shick Chung; Young-Woo Lee

    1999-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the ma...

  4. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...... of exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....

  5. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  6. Selected aspects of modelling of foreign exchange rates with neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Mastný

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with forecasting of the high-frequency foreign exchange market with neural networks. The objective is to investigate some aspects of modelling with neural networks (impact of topology, size of training set and time horizon of the forecast on the performance of the network. The data used for the purpose of this paper contain 15-minute time series of US dollar against other major currencies, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro. The results show, that performance of the network in terms of correct directorial change is negatively influenced by increasing number of hidden neurons and decreasing size of training set. The performance of the network is influenced by sampling frequency.

  7. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Power Party [PPP] based on the law of one price asserts that the change in the exchange rate between .... exchange in international economic transactions has made it vitally evident that the management of ... One lesson from this episode is to ...

  8. Exchange Rate Volatility and Investment: A Panel Data Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahima Amadou DIALLO

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the link between real exchange rate volatility and domestic investment by using panel data cointegration techniques. We study the empirical connection between real effective exchange rate volatility and investment for 51 developing countries (23 low-income and 28 middle-income countries. The theoretical relationship between investment and real exchange rate volatility predicts that the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on profits are ambiguous. The empirical results illustrate that real effective exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility.

  9. The Skill-Biased Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Boris Kaiser; Michael Siegenthaler

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the linkages between real exchange rate movements and firms' skill demand. Real exchange rate movements may affect unskilled workers differently than skilled workers because of skill-specific adjustment costs, or because exchange rates lead to changes in relative factor prices and firms' competition intensity. Using panel data on Swiss manufacturers, we find that an appreciation increases high-skilled and reduces low-skilled employment in most firms, while total employment...

  10. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Thi Hong Le

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the panel data and, then, a GMM estimator is employed to ensure the consistency of the estimates. The results point out that the exchange rate exposure of these countries is asymmetric. At market level, for a rise in the exchange rate (or local currency depreciates, the average stock returns tend to decrease. However, due to the favourable impact of currency depreciation on the net export position, the reduction speed of stock returns is faster than the rising speed of the exchange rate.

  11. Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bora Suslu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation

  12. Perinatal mortality rate in the Netherlands compared to other European countries: a secondary analysis of Euro-PERISTAT data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jonge, Ank; Baron, Ruth; Westerneng, Myrte; Twisk, Jos; Hutton, Eileen K

    2013-08-01

    the poor perinatal mortality ranking of the Netherlands compared to other European countries has led to questioning the safety of primary care births, particularly those at home. Primary care births are only planned at term. We therefore examined to which extent the perinatal mortality rate at term in the Netherlands contributes to its poor ranking. secondary analyses using published data from the Euro-PERISTAT study. women that gave birth in 2004 in the 29 European regions and countries called 'countries' included in the Euro-PERISTAT study (4,328,441 women in total and 1,940,977 women at term). odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the comparison of perinatal mortality rates between European countries and the Netherlands, through logistic regression analyses using summary country data. combined perinatal mortality rates overall and at term. Perinatal deaths below 28 weeks, between 28 and 37 weeks and from 37 weeks onwards per 1000 total births. compared to the Netherlands, perinatal mortality rates at term were significantly higher for Denmark and Latvia and not significantly different compared to seven other countries. Eleven countries had a significantly lower rate, and for eight the term perinatal mortality rate could not be compared. The Netherlands had the highest number of perinatal deaths before 28 weeks per 1000 total births (4.3). the relatively high perinatal mortality rate in the Netherlands is driven more by extremely preterm births than births at term. Although the PERISTAT data cannot be used to show that the Dutch maternity care system is safe, neither should they be used to argue that the system is unsafe. The PERISTAT data alone do not support changes to the Dutch maternity care system that reduce the possibility for women to choose a home birth while benefits of these changes are uncertain. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory P. Hopper

    1997-01-01

    Do economic factors influence exchange rates? Or does market sentiment play a bigger role? Are short-run exchange rates predictable? Greg Hopper reviews exchange-rate economics, focusing on what is predictable and what isn't. He also examines the practical implications of exchange-rate theories for currency option pricing, risk management, and portfolio selection.

  14. Determination of the Optimal Exchange Rate Via Control of the Domestic Interest Rate in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virtue U. Ekhosuehi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An economic scenario has been considered where the government seeks to achieve a favourable balance-of-payments over a fixed planning horizon through exchange rate policy and control of the domestic interest rate. The dynamics of such an economy was considered in terms of a bounded optimal control problem where the exchange rate is the state variable and the domestic interest rate is the control variable. The idea of balance-of-payments was used as a theoretical underpinning to specify the objective function. By assuming that, changes in exchange rates were induced by two effects: the impact of the domestic interest rate on the exchange rate and the exchange rate system adopted by the government. Instances for both fixed and flexible optimal exchange rate regimes have been determined. The use of the approach has been illustrated employing data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN statistical bulletin. (original abstract

  15. Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

    2014-01-01

    What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

  16. Areva at March 31, 2012: 2.4% revenue growth to 2026 million euros (+1.3% on a comparable basis); Backlog growth of 12 months to 45.1 billion euros (+3.7%), down slightly over 3 months (-1.0%)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marie, Patricia; Briand, Pauline; Michaut, Maxime; Rosso, Jerome; Scorbiac, Marie de; Repaire, Philippine du

    2012-01-01

    AREVA generated consolidated revenue of 2.026 billion euros in the first quarter of 2012, up 2.4% (+1.3% like for like) compared with the same period in 2011. The increase in revenue in the Mining Business Group (+11.9% reported, +6.5% like for like), the Reactors and Services Business Group (+5.8% reported, +6.0% like for like) and the Renewable Energies Business Group (+198.2% reported, +199.8% like for like) offsets the expected decrease in revenue in the Front End Business Group (-17.2% reported, -18.3% like for like). Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 29 million euros over the period, while changes in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 8 million euros. The Group had 45.1 billion euros in backlog at March 31, 2012, up 3.7% in relation to March 31, 2011 and down slightly (-1.0%) from December 31, 2011. Backlog growth in the Front End, Reactors and Services and Back End Business Groups offsets the decrease in backlog in the Mining and Renewable Energies Business Groups. Order cancellations as a result of the Fukushima accident totaled 612 million euros at March 31, 2012, compared with 464 million euros at December 31, 2011

  17. The Determinants of won/dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Policy Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chae-Shick Chung

    1998-09-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzed the feature and different points of the changing of the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar, then discussed the direction of the completion of Korea exchange rate system. The prediction result of the model GARCH which vividly shows the phenomenon of the auto-regression of the exchange rate has indicated the level of the exchange rate yesterday could explain the circumstance of the change of exchange rate today. Meanwhile, the policy of the US exchange rate will affect the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar and the volatility of foreign exchange rate. In the present situation of Korean economy in which the liberalization of capital and the independence of the central bank has been established, the choosing range of the exchange system could only be completely changeable exchange rate system or exchange rate system of multilateral arrangement like Europe. However, in terms of the condition of the world economy, the introduction of the latter system is too early. There is an idea that under the changeable exchange rate system which is the only choice, it is the right time to activate the main body of private economy, the financial derivatives market in which the exchange risk could be trade-off. Government should work on and create a policy that would be able to satisfy the expectations of the market participants.

  18. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    of the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A GARCH(1......A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity......,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....

  19. Chartist Trading in Exchange Rate Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Selander, Carina

    2006-01-01

    This thesis consists of four papers, of which paper 1 and 4 are co-written with Mikael Bask. Paper [1] implements chartists trading in a sticky-price monetary model for determining the exchange rate. It is demonstrated that chartists cause the exchange rate to "overshoot the overshooting equilibrium" of a sticky-price monetary model. Chartists base their trading on a short-long moving average. The importance of technical trading depends inversely on the time horizon in currency trade. The exc...

  20. Labour Demand and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Udo Broll; Sabine Hansen

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility exerts a positive effect on a firm's labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option provided the firm under study is flexible. Flexibility is important because it gives the firm option value. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and may increase the demand for labour. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the ef...

  1. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... effects of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance in Nigeria. .... main factors that impacts on real exchange rate in India .... financial assets and ignores non-economic factor such as .... and fiscal policies to control inflation.

  2. Basic Exchange Rate Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition

  3. Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: the exchange rate as a shock absorber

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Audzei, Volha; Brázdik, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 5 (2015), s. 391-410 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : Czech Republic * exchange rates * sign restrictions Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1340_audzei.pdf

  4. Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firman Mochtar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006 approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007, two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.

  5. Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Small, Primary-Exporting Country

    OpenAIRE

    Mohsin S. Khan; Peter J. Montiel

    1987-01-01

    Although the nominal exchange rate is often used as a policy instrument in small, primary-commodity-exporting countries, the real exchange rate is an endogenous variable that responds to both exogenous and policyinduced shocks. This paper examines the dynamic effects on the real exchange rate of various shocks, such as devaluation, fiscal and trade policies, and changes in the terms of trade and foreign real interest rates. Because the path of the real exchange rate differs for different type...

  6. Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Flexibility Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2001-01-01

    Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say th...

  7. Rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Masanori; Poulson, Simon R

    2012-04-17

    The rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water was investigated at conditions of 10 to 80 °C and pH -0.6 to 4.4. Oxygen isotope exchange proceeds as a first-order reaction, and the exchange rate is strongly affected by reaction temperature and pH, with increased rates of isotope exchange at higher temperature and lower pH. Selenate speciation (HSeO(4)(-) vs SeO(4)(2-)) also has a significant effect on the rate of isotope exchange. The half-life for isotope exchange at example natural conditions (25 °C and pH 7) is estimated to be significantly in excess of 10(6) years. The very slow rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water under most environmental conditions demonstrates that selenate-δ(18)O signatures produced by biogeochemical processes will be preserved and hence that it will be possible to use the value of selenate-δ(18)O to investigate the biogeochemical behavior of selenate, in an analogous fashion to the use of sulfate-δ(18)O to study the biogeochemical behavior of sulfate.

  8. Euro NCAP : een veiligheidsinstrument.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2007-01-01

    Het programma Euro NCAP test sinds 1996 de (bots)veiligheid van de meest gangbare personen-auto’s. Het feit dat de testresultaten bekend zijn bij de consumenten stimuleert de autofabrikanten om personenauto’s produceren die veelal veiliger zijn dan wettelijk is vereist. Euro NCAP test de

  9. The demand for euros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the demand for euros using panel data for 10 euro area countries covering the period from 1999 to 2008. Monetary aggregates are constructed to ensure that money is a national concept by excluding deposits owned by non-residents and including external deposits owned by

  10. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dražen Koški

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchange rate in relation to floating exchange rate were carried out. Although the question is about the extreme systems, disregarding the system without domestic currency in circulation, their comparison makes possible completely satisfactory basis for the right conclusions on the choice of optimal exchange rate system for the Republic of Croatia. Considering its economic particularities, the system of managed-floating exchange rate without proclaimed exchange direction in advance is certainly optimal for the Republic of Croatia. Namely, within the framework of this system the limited floating exchange rates decrease the foreign exchange risk allowing to monetary authorities, at least partly, the independent monetary policy

  11. Analisis Perbandingan Risiko Nilai Tukar Kurs Dinar (Emas, Dolar AS, Euro dan Yuan (Periode 2010 – 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Triyawan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Money is a tool intermediary humans to perform the transaction  payment  is national or international. In its development money undergoes several changes. Similarly, in the development of the world economy, there has been a financial crisis that hit in various countries, such as the global economic crisis. Crisis economic global is the crisis that occurred as a result of the problems of economic markets in the whole world who make entire sectors of the economy markets experienced a collapse and the impact on other sectors . Which becomes a problem in terms of this is the risk of the value of the exchange currency money and the occurrence of fluctuations in the value of exchange currency money internationally which led to a decrease in the value of the exchange currency for money in countries developing. That is, because the use of fiat money system based only on the belief of its value without any intrinsic value in fiat money form . The purpose of this research is to know how big is the risk of the value of exchange and volatility that is generated in the use of value exchange currency currency exchange rate of Dinar ( Gold , Dollars USA, Euro and Yuan as the eyes of money internationally. This research is a study of Library Research with quantitative research type, by obtaining secondary data from site Internet. By taking samples as much as 60 months of each exchange Dinar Gold, Dollars USA, Euro and Yuan by way of purposive sampling and using the Analysis Time Series with Eviews 7.2. The results of the research of this is that the volatility of the value of the exchange currency for money top is Dinar Emas with value of 0.036590, while the volatility of most small is the value of the exchange currency Yuan with a value of 0.018472. Dinar Gold has a value of volatility and risk value of the exchange of the most high , so that when the dinar gold is used in terms of trade internationally and the company would have borne the risk of market

  12. Exchange-rate-based stabilization in Argentina and Chile : a fresh look

    OpenAIRE

    Kiguel, Miguel A.; Liviatan, Nissan

    1994-01-01

    Exchange-rate-based stabilization is designed to reduce inflation by using the exchange rate as the main nominal anchor. This does not necessarily mean a fixed exchange rate. A crawling peg with a low rate of depreciation or a pre-announced gradual reduction in the rate of devaluation are alternative ways to use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Exchange-rate-based stabilization (ERBS) has been widely used in the high-inflation economies of Latin America. Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay ad...

  13. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abed Al-Zabidi

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly.The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market.

  14. Solvent Exchange Rates of Side-chain Amide Protons in Proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajagopal, Ponni; Jones, Bryan E.; Klevit, Rachel E.

    1998-01-01

    Solvent exchange rates and temperature coefficients for Asn/Gln side-chain amide protons have been measured in Escherichia coli HPr. The protons of the eight side-chain amide groups (two Asn and six Gln) exhibit varying exchange rates which are slower than some of the fast exchanging backbone amide protons. Differences in exchange rates of the E and Z protons of the same side-chain amide group are obtained by measuring exchange rates at pH values > 8. An NOE between a side-chain amide proton and a bound water molecule was also observed

  15. Areva at September 30, 2013: Backlog of euro 42 bn Robust revenue growth to euro 6.847 bn: +4.7% vs. Sept. 2012 (+7.6% like for like) Strong organic growth (+9.9%) in the nuclear operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duperray, Julien; Berezowskyj, Katherine; Grange, Aurelie; Rosso, Jerome; Thebault, Alexandre; Scorbiac, Marie de; Repaire, Philippine du

    2013-01-01

    After a remarkable first half and as anticipated, Areva's third quarter revenue was stable in the nuclear operations compared with the third quarter of 2012. Globally, Areva's nuclear operations generated organic growth of 10% in the first nine months of 2013. This performance demonstrates the strength of Areva's commercial positions in the installed base market, where the company continues to innovate while improving its competitiveness. The success of Areva's integrated offers and of its Safety Alliance and Forward Alliance programs are perfect examples of this. Moreover, agreements signed for the EDF project at Hinkley Point strengthen Areva's position in the new builds market and bolster the credibility of Areva's EPR TM offers to other customers. In the Renewable Energies BG, revenue is below Areva's Action 2016 plan outlook, mainly due to the current indecisiveness in the renewable markets. Based on Areva's performance over the past nine months, the company confirms its revenue outlook for its business as a whole in 2013. AREVA generated consolidated revenue of 6.847 billion euros in the first nine months of 2013, representing growth of 4.7% (+7.6% like for like) compared with the same period in 2012. Revenue growth was fueled by a 7.7% increase in recurring business (+11.0% like for like). Revenue from nuclear operations was 6.453 billion euros in the first nine months of 2013, compared with 6.035 billion euros in the first nine months of 2012, a 6.9% increase (+9.9% like for like). Revenue was led by growth in all nuclear Business Groups (BG): the Mining BG (+31.8% like for like), the Front End BG (+9.8% like for like), the Reactors and Services BG (+1.5% like for like) and the Back End BG (+10.3% like for like). Revenue fell 24.6% like for like in the renewable operations. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of 71 million euros during the period. The change in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 106 million euros. In the third quarter of 2013

  16. 160 Adopting the Euro: A Long Path towards National Consensus within the Euro Area Candidate Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Criste

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The global financial crisis outbreak after 2007 has profoundly changed the course of the history of relations in the world economy, creating a complicated framework of political relations between countries and economic regions. In this context, it is important to depict the economic convergence stage of Euro Area candidate countries and to what extent this crisis has or has not changed the euro adoption objective for these countries. The present paper aimed to shed a light on this issue by analyzing both the state of the convergence process and the public attitude regarding euro adoption in four Euro Area candidate countries which have the same monetary policy strategy (inflation targeting. The research results show the way in which the global financial crisis “deviates” the convergence trajectory of the nominal indicators, but also the political and public sentiment against the euro adoption in the selected countries. The results represent a valuable groundwork for analyzing the way in which National Central Banks candidate to the Eurosystem are implied into the processing for euro adoption during turbulence times

  17. Exchange Rate and International Trade: Case From Indonesian Manufacturing Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anung Yoga Anindhita

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to have impacts on the international trade through its adjustment to the price and its volatility to the trade risk. This paper is aimed at estimating those impacts on the international trade of manufacturing sector in Indonesia for period 2007 to 2014. To conduct estimation, it uses multiple regression analysis on two models: First, the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials; Second, the export of manufacturing sector. The results show that the exchange rate impacts both work significantly on the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials. The finding implies that, through the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials, manufacturing sector is very susceptible to the shock caused by exchange rate changes. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing sector is not able to take advantage of the depreciation of the exchange rate due to the lack of competitiveness.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5210

  18. Impact of exchange rates on the world uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fulton, M.E.; Combs, G.F. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A preliminary analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and US uranium prices and product ion is presented. This analysis supplements the discussions on the broader topic of fuel prices, exchange rates and other international economic phenomena scheduled during the 1985 EPRI Fuel Supply Seminar. By varying exchange rate assumptions in the recently developed Uranium Market Model, estimates of the magnitude and timing of price and production effects were obtained. These effects do indeed appear to be large and have implications in procurement, fuel planning and commodity policy. While analysts may differ on details, the inescapable conclusion is that exchange rates matter a great deal in the uranium market. The case described is for a scenario of exchange rates with other currencies returning to their 1980 levels. A second case, an across the board weakening of the dollar by 25%, the results of which are somewhat less dramatic is also examined

  19. Investigation of Chemical Exchange at Intermediate Exchange Rates using a Combination of Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer (CEST) and Spin-Locking methods (CESTrho)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Feliks; Singh, Anup; Cai, Keija; Haris, Mohammad; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2011-01-01

    Proton exchange imaging is important as it allows for visualization and quantification of the distribution of specific metabolites with conventional MRI. Current exchange mediated MRI methods suffer from poor contrast as well as confounding factors that influence exchange rates. In this study we developed a new method to measure proton exchange which combines chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and T1ρ magnetization preparation methods (CESTrho). We demonstrated that this new CESTrho sequence can detect proton exchange in the slow to intermediate exchange regimes. It has a linear dependence on proton concentration which allows it to be used to quantitatively measure changes in metabolite concentration. Additionally, the magnetization scheme of this new method can be customized to make it insensitive to changes in exchange rate while retaining its dependency on solute concentration. Finally, we showed the feasibility of using CESTrho in vivo. This sequence is able to detect proton exchange at intermediate exchange rates and is unaffected by the confounding factors that influence proton exchange rates thus making it ideal for the measurement of metabolites with exchangeable protons in this exchange regime. PMID:22009759

  20. Investigation of chemical exchange at intermediate exchange rates using a combination of chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and spin-locking methods (CESTrho).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Feliks; Singh, Anup; Cai, Keija; Haris, Mohammad; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2012-07-01

    Proton exchange imaging is important as it allows for visualization and quantification of the distribution of specific metabolites with conventional MRI. Current exchange mediated MRI methods suffer from poor contrast as well as confounding factors that influence exchange rates. In this study we developed a new method to measure proton exchange which combines chemical exchange saturation transfer and T(1)(ρ) magnetization preparation methods (CESTrho). We demonstrated that this new CESTrho sequence can detect proton exchange in the slow to intermediate exchange regimes. It has a linear dependence on proton concentration which allows it to be used to quantitatively measure changes in metabolite concentration. Additionally, the magnetization scheme of this new method can be customized to make it insensitive to changes in exchange rate while retaining its dependency on solute concentration. Finally, we showed the feasibility of using CESTrho in vivo. This sequence is able to detect proton exchange at intermediate exchange rates and is unaffected by the confounding factors that influence proton exchange rates thus making it ideal for the measurement of metabolites with exchangeable protons in this exchange regime. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Structure and frame conditions for power exchange agreements with the Continent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiedswang, R.

    1996-01-01

    The conference paper relates to the obtained agreements between Norway and the Continent on the exchange of electric power. The paper discusses the structure and frame conditions for the ELSAM, PreussenElektra, SEP and EuroStrom agreements. ELSAM covers the agreement with Denmark which started on 27 July 1995. The PreussenElektra agreement includes the exchange of power with the German PreussenElektra AG which starts on 1 October 1998. SEP covers the agreement with the Netherlands which is planned to start on 1 October 2001, and the EuroStrom agreement with the German EST EuroStrom Trading GmbH in Hamburg which is planned to start on 1 January 2003. 8 figs

  2. Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural brea...

  3. The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

  4. Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Eatzaz Ahmad; Saima Ahmed Ali

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies simultaneous determination of nominal exchange rate and domestic price level in Pakistan. The estimated model contains sufficient built-in dynamics to trace the pattern and speed of adjustment in the two variables in response to temporary or permanent shocks. The two domestic shocks considered in the paper are monetary and real shocks, while the three external shocks considered are import price, export price and foreign exchange reserves shocks. The study finds that the imp...

  5. Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

    OpenAIRE

    Takatoshi Ito; Kiyotaka Sato

    2006-01-01

    Macroeconomic consequences of a large currency depreciation among the crisis-hit Asian economies had varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar in most Asian countries, including Thailand and Korea, after the exchange rate depreciated during the crisis. Indonesia, however, suffered very high inflation following a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. As a result, price competitive advantage by the rupiah depreciation was lost in the real exchange rate terms. The objec...

  6. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

    2014-01-01

    The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  7. Relationship between indoor radon concentrations and air exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jingshu; Liu Yuyu; Yao Xiaohua; Meng Jianfeng; Zhang Yongyi; Wang Xiaohe; Yu Xiufen.

    1995-01-01

    The indoor concentration of radon and the air exchange rate were simultaneously measured in four empty rooms, made of brick and cement, which were located in different floors of dwelling houses in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China. SF 6 tracer gas decay method was used to measure the air exchange rate. Indoor radon was collected with the dimembrane method. When the ventilation rate increased, the concentration of radon dropped rapidly. Regression analysis indicated that the indoor concentration of radon was equal to the outdoor level of radon when the air exchange rate was greater than 3-4. SF 6 decay method was an effective and convenient method for measuring the air exchange rate. There was no marked difference in measurements obtained in different locations of a room. (N.K.)

  8. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

  9. Recursive and non-linear logistic regression: moving on from the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poullis, Michael

    2014-11-01

    EuroSCORE II, despite improving on the original EuroSCORE system, has not solved all the calibration and predictability issues. Recursive, non-linear and mixed recursive and non-linear regression analysis were assessed with regard to sensitivity, specificity and predictability of the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II systems. The original logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and recursive, non-linear and mixed recursive and non-linear regression analyses of these risk models were assessed via receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic analysis with regard to the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality. Analysis was performed for isolated coronary artery bypass grafts (CABGs) (n = 2913), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 814), mitral valve surgery (n = 340), combined AVR and CABG (n = 517), aortic (n = 350), miscellaneous cases (n = 642), and combinations of the above cases (n = 5576). The original EuroSCORE had an ROC below 0.7 for isolated AVR and combined AVR and CABG. None of the methods described increased the ROC above 0.7. The EuroSCORE II risk model had an ROC below 0.7 for isolated AVR only. Recursive regression, non-linear regression, and mixed recursive and non-linear regression all increased the ROC above 0.7 for isolated AVR. The original EuroSCORE had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was above 0.05 for all patients and the subgroups analysed. All of the techniques markedly increased the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The EuroSCORE II risk model had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was significant for all patients (P linear regression failed to improve on the original Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The mixed recursive and non-linear regression using the EuroSCORE II risk model was the only model that produced an ROC of 0.7 or above for all patients and procedures and had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was highly non-significant. The original EuroSCORE and the EuroSCORE II risk models do not have adequate ROC and Hosmer

  10. The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria | Ajao ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study recommends that the central monetary authority should institute policies that will minimize the magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of viable macroeconomic variables which have direct influence on exchange rate fluctuation. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Volatility, ...

  11. Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Ester Faia; Massimo Giuliodori; Michele Ruta

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of l...

  12. Examining the volatility of exchange rate: Does monetary policy matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Lim, Shu Yi; Sek, Siok Kun

    2014-01-01

    We conduct empirical analysis on examining the changes in exchange rate volatility under two monetary policy regimes, i.e. the pre- and post- inflation targeting (IT) regimes. In addition, we also investigate if the monetary decisions can have impacts on the volatility of exchange rate. The study is focused in four Asian countries that experienced drastic in the switch of monetary policy from the rigid exchange rate to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting after the Asian financial c...

  13. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Takuji Kinkyo

    2004-01-01

    The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common b...

  14. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON WHEAT TRADE WORLDWIDE

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Changyou; Kim, Mina; Koo, Won W.; Cho, Guedae; Jin, Hyun Joung

    2002-01-01

    A modified gravity-type model was employed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate volatility on wheat exports worldwide. Special attention was given to the econometric properties of the gravity model within panel framework. Short and long-term measures of exchange rate volatility were constructed and compared. Both measures of exchange rate volatility have exhibited a negative effect on world wheat trade and the long-term effect was even larger. This result implies that exchange rate volatil...

  15. Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel Bostan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study is meant to be an evaluation sustained by theoretical and empirical considerations of the exchange rate impact on international commercial trade competitiveness. In this respect, the study aims to find how the exchange rate influences Romanian competitiveness through assessing the effects generated on exports and imports. The main purpose of the study is to assess the complex action of the exchange rate on international commercial trade competitiveness in contemporaneity and the connections between these variables. The empirical part contains a regression analysis where exports and imports are dependent variables influenced by a series of determinants.

  16. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...

  17. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  18. Areva at March 31, 2014: Downturn in revenue as anticipated, to euro 1.781 bn (-17.3% like for like), Backlog of euro 40.2 bn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duperray, Julien; Berezowskyj, Katherine; Grange, Aurelie; Rosso, Jerome; Thebault, Alexandre; Scorbiac, Marie de; Repaire, Philippine du

    2014-01-01

    Following the marked growth of the nuclear operations in 2013, thanks in particular to the strength of recurring activities and the contribution of exceptional items such as significant uranium sales volumes and non-recurring foreign contracts, revenue in the first quarter of the year fell sharply, as Areva had anticipated. A strong seasonal effect will materialize in 2014, with greater activity to be expected in the second half of the year. As indicated when releasing 2013 annual results, the current economic environment is still unfavorable, with market prices deteriorating in the front end of the cycle and lackluster demand from customers for installed base services. AREVA's operations generated consolidated revenue of 1.781 billion euros in the first quarter of 2014, a decrease of 18.1% (-17.3 % like for like) compared with the same period in 2013. The Front End Business Group (BG) reported strong growth of +59.0% (+59.8% like for like). Revenue was down in the Mining, Reactors and Services, Back End and Renewable Energies BGs, at -63.0% (-62.3% like for like), -14.1% (-12.5% like for like), -41.7% (-41.6% like for like) and -38.2% (-34.6% like for like) respectively. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of 18 million euros over the period, while the change in consolidation scope had a negative impact of 3 million euros. The group's backlog reached 40.2 billion euros at March 31, 2014, a decrease of 2.9% compared with December 31, 2013 and of 8.8% year on year

  19. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  20. Investigating the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos Vakil Alroaia

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of two macroeconomic factors; namely exchange rate and liquidity on stock index. The proposed study was applied in Iran and on major index of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2001-2011. They reported that the currency exchange maintained negative impact on stock exchange for the period of investigation. This is due to the fact that when currency devalued, working capital decreases and firms did not enough money to purchase raw materials, pay wages, etc. In addition, liquidity marinated a direct and positive relationship with exchange index. However, the impact of liquidity seems to be bigger than currency exchange.

  1. VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATE IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREIGN TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg STRATULAT

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Moderate fluctuation of the exchange rate, basically in its floating regime is considered normality. Meanwhile,excessive volatility of the exchange rate is an issue for many countries. Its elimination is directed to foreign trade, which, through essential exports, followed by significant currency inflows, contribute to the stability of exchange rates. Unfortunately, Moldova’s foreign trade has become a key factor in maintaining the stability of foreign exchange.

  2. Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.; Mortoza, Letícia Pelluci D.

    2012-04-01

    With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the López-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns.

  3. The Question of Instability, Uncompetitiveness and Growth Slowdown of Small Middle –Income Countries in the Euro Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Senjur

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The thesis of this article is that a small country with a below-average per capita income is in a disadvantaged macroeconomic position inside the euro area. Small middle-income countries expected an acceleration of growth by joining the EMU. They were hoping to catch up in the convergence process within the euro area. Yet things turned out differently. The crisis in 2009–2012 has led to excessive instability due to exogenous macroeconomic prices and the lack of a lender of last resort for sovereign debtors. Small MICs are more vulnerable to asymmetric shocks from abroad due to the ‘one-size-fits-all’ economic policy at the EMU level. This is reflected in the excessive volatility of real economic variables (such as GDP and unemployment, and excessive financial instability (such as indebtedness and sovereign debt. The crisis also revealed weak price competitiveness of exports due to overvalued exchange rate of the euro and overall under-average productivity of the MICs. MICs had to respond with deflationary internal (surrogate devaluations and depressed aggregate demand. Measures of internal surrogate devaluations may partially improve situation in the medium term, yet they may worsen the competitive growth situation in the long run. A macroeconomic environment of macroeconomic instability and weak competitiveness may trigger a slowdown in growth.

  4. Fiscal deficits, exchange rate crises and inflation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1991-01-01

    This article extends earlier work on unsustainable monetary policies by endogenizing the regime switch that ultimately restores sustainability. Within this framework we analyze exchange rate based stabilization programs and shows how constraints on Central Bank borrowing during an exchange crisis

  5. ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES FOR THE CURRENCY PAIR CROATIAN KUNA / EURO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Martinović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The domestic currency Croatian kuna (HRK was introduced in May 1995. To date, the Croatian National Bank (HNB, as a regulator and formulator of monetary policy in Croatia has operated a policy of stable exchange rate, typically referenced to the formal currency of the European Union euro (EUR. From the date of introduction of the euro 01/01/1999 until 01/01/2016 the value of the currency pair HRK / EUR changed in value by only 4.25% (HNB. Although the value of the Croatian kuna is relatively stable, there are some fluctuations on an annual level (e.g. in ­­­the last few years because of the global crisis as well as  on periodic levels within a year. The aim of this paper is to show the movement of the value of the currency pair since the beginning of 2002 to the present day (the time curve, analyze the correctness, trends and periodicity (seasonal behavior, if any exist.The research will be done using the method of Time Series Analysis, assuming that the external (global economy and internal factors (economic policy remain similar or the same. According to the results, further assessment of price developments in the period followed will be made by using the obtained predicative models. In the event that the curve contains the component of periodicity, the observed patterns will be studied further.

  6. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  7. Exchange Rates’ Effect on Spot and Futures Equity Index Markets: A Study on Borsa Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayben Koy

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the linkages between the foreign exchange rates, spot equity index and equity index futures. The study aims to investi-gate whether there is difference between the spot and futures markets in the scope of relation with the foreign exchange rates’ returns and which leads the other. The relationships are examined by using the vector autoregression (VAR model, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition and Granger Causality tests. The sample of the study consists of US dollar to Turkish Lira rate (USD/TRY, Euro to Turkish Lira rate (EUR/TRY, BIST 30 Index and BIST 30 Index Futures. The data of the study includes the period between January 2011 and December 2014 with daily data range. Our results have evidence that the foreign exchange rate markets in Turkey are driven by the equity market.

  8. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Minh Thi Hong Le; Ha Thi Cam Huynh; Hong Thi Thu Dinh

    2017-01-01

    The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the...

  9. An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

  10. A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth W Clements; Yihui Lan

    2006-01-01

    Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon....

  11. Cognitive processing of currency: Euros and Dollars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macizo, Pedro; Morales, Luis

    2015-11-01

    In the current study, we evaluated whether the processing of currency was determined by familiarity of people with banknotes. In Experiment 1, participants who used the Euro currency named sequences of Euro banknotes and Dollar banknotes blocked by category or mixed with exemplars of other categories. The participants showed an interference effect in the blocked context with Dollar banknotes but not with Euro banknotes. In Experiment 2, the interference effect was observed with Euro banknotes when participants were not familiar with the Euro currency. These results suggest that the semantic processing of banknotes depends on the participants' familiarity with currency. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

  12. RTE results 2002: positive net income (+112 million euros), in keeping with forecasts, at the end of a year placed under the sign of quality; Bilan RTE 2002: un resultat net positif (+112 M d'euros), conforme aux previsions, au terme d'une annee placee sous le signe de la qualite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-03-01

    the first French 400 kV transformer -phase shifter at La Praz (Savoie); the reconstruction of the 400 kV interconnection line linking Vigy (France) to Uchtelfangen (Germany), - Completion of the 400 kV line which connects Tavel to Tricastin. As regards services, the offer developed particularly through: base load energy block exchange notifications; the extension of the Non-guaranteed Limited Exceeding of Subscribed Demand service; the continuation between France and Great Britain of the allocation of exchange capacity, in both directions, by means of auctions; a daily allocation of capacity between France and Italy. The year 2002 was that of the total involvement of RTE in the quality approach. All of RTE's operational units and central entities have been certified ISO 9001 V 2000 since 27/12/02. RTE is readying itself in 2003 to obtain the overall certification for the company. At the same time, RTE obtained the ISO 14001 environmental certification for the entire company in 2002. It buried nearly 25% of new high voltage lines and removed 161 km of the existing network. The efforts deployed by RTE and its employees have helped increase customer satisfaction. This is the main conclusion of the survey of 400 customers conducted in 2002, which highlights a customer satisfaction rate close to 90%.

  13. Areva At December 31, 2010: Revenue rises to euros 9.104 bn: + 6.7% Backlog rises to euros 44.2 bn: + 2.0%; Areva au 31 decembre 2010: Croissance du chiffre d'affaires a 9104 Meuros: + 6,7 % Croissance du carnet de commandes a 44,2 Mdseuros: + 2,0 %

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    exchange had a positive impact of 84 million euros. - In Mining, revenue continued to benefit from the increase in AREVA's average uranium sales prices (+5%) and in volumes sold. In addition, gold revenue was up more than 80% compared with 2009. - In Enrichment, revenue was stable compared with 2009. - In Fuel, the drop in volumes reflecting the postponement of deliveries in France was offset by an increase in ancillary activities revenue (components and services) compared with 2009. The backlog for the Reactors and Services BG came to 7.290 billion euros at December 31, 2010. The leading orders booked in the second half of the year were as follows: - an engineering contract from US utility Tennessee Valley Authority to study conditions for completion of unit 1 of the Bellefonte power plant in northern Alabama; - industrial prototype design studies for the CEA for the Generation IV ASTRID reactor; - the start of design, engineering and safety studies for the Indian utility NPCIL under the agreement concerning the construction of two EPR{sup TM} reactors at the Jaitapur site and fuel supply for 25 years, with commercial negotiations expected to be brought to a successful conclusion in 2011. Revenue for the Reactors and Services BG was up 8.9% in 2010 (+7.8% LFL) to 3.384 billion euros. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of 39 million euros. - The New Build business was up due to significant progress on major reactor construction projects. - Installed Base Services were up sharply due to buoyant business in component replacement, the increase in power plant modernization and up-rating operations in Europe, and the large amount of work performed in the United States on unit outages. The backlog for the Back End BG came to 6.056 billion euros at December 31, 2010. The BG continued to pursue its international development over the year. In particular, it signed MOX fuel fabrication contracts and a contract with the US Department of Energy for the training of future

  14. The Euro crisis. Causes and Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph S. Weber

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Euro crisis is mainly a consequence of the international financial crisis of 2008. Thereby, the term Euro crisis is misleading as there is no currency crisis. First, the article shows some of the birth defects of the Euro. Second, it shows that the increase in public debt was caused by rescue measures for banks and anti-cyclical fiscal policy. Third, we argue that the Euro crisis is not just one crisis (a sovereign debt crisis but it is a combination of several macroeconomic crises including a growth crisis, a labour market crisis, a public debt crisis, and a current account crisis.

  15. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rahel

    magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of ... objectives in the area of price stability and economic growth. Volatile real ..... Exchange rate shocks and instability is a common feature of emerging.

  16. Apparent exchange rate for breast cancer characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasič, Samo; Oredsson, Stina; Partridge, Savannah C; Saal, Lao H; Topgaard, Daniel; Nilsson, Markus; Bryskhe, Karin

    2016-05-01

    Although diffusion MRI has shown promise for the characterization of breast cancer, it has low specificity to malignant subtypes. Higher specificity might be achieved if the effects of cell morphology and molecular exchange across cell membranes could be disentangled. The quantification of exchange might thus allow the differentiation of different types of breast cancer cells. Based on differences in diffusion rates between the intra- and extracellular compartments, filter exchange spectroscopy/imaging (FEXSY/FEXI) provides non-invasive quantification of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) of water between the two compartments. To test the feasibility of FEXSY for the differentiation of different breast cancer cells, we performed experiments on several breast epithelial cell lines in vitro. Furthermore, we performed the first in vivo FEXI measurement of water exchange in human breast. In cell suspensions, pulsed gradient spin-echo experiments with large b values and variable pulse duration allow the characterization of the intracellular compartment, whereas FEXSY provides a quantification of AXR. These experiments are very sensitive to the physiological state of cells and can be used to establish reliable protocols for the culture and harvesting of cells. Our results suggest that different breast cancer subtypes can be distinguished on the basis of their AXR values in cell suspensions. Time-resolved measurements allow the monitoring of the physiological state of cells in suspensions over the time-scale of hours, and reveal an abrupt disintegration of the intracellular compartment. In vivo, exchange can be detected in a tumor, whereas, in normal tissue, the exchange rate is outside the range experimentally accessible for FEXI. At present, low signal-to-noise ratio and limited scan time allows the quantification of AXR only in a region of interest of relatively large tumors. © 2016 The Authors. NMR in Biomedicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Exchange rate regimes and inflation: Evidence from India.

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Biswajit; Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a `policy discipline effect'- restricting money supply growth, and a `credibility effect'- inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the impossibility trillema predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a mo...

  18. Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tehseen JAWAID

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of exchange rate, interest rates, and their volatilities on stock prices of banking industry of Pakistan. Cointegration results suggests the existance of significant negative long run relationship between exchange rate and short term interest rate with stock prices. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship exists between volatilities of exchange rate and interest rate with stock prices. Causality analysis confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate and stock prices. Whereas, unidirectional causality runs from short term interest rate to stock prices. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that investors should invest in banking sector stocks when exchange rate and interest rates are highly volatile. The result also supports the view that exchange rate and interest rate can be used as an indicator for investment decision making in banking sector stocks.

  19. Exchange rate policy and devaluation in Malawi:

    OpenAIRE

    Pauw, Karl; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mazunda, John

    2013-01-01

    This study demonstrates why devaluation was ultimately necessary in Malawi and also what its eventual impact might be in terms of prices, income distribution, and domestic production. Our approach is to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economywide impacts of foreign exchange shortages in Malawi under two alternative exchange rate regimes. The foreign exchange shortages are modeled by simulating the effect of actual shocks, including tobacco price declines and r...

  20. 3ON PAK RUPEE EXCHANGE RATES: WHETHER STOCK OR FLOW MATTERS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razzaque H Bhatti

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the monetary model or the flow model of exchange rate explains the long-run movements in Pak rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis the four major currencies – the US dollar, British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen – over the period 1983q1-2009q4. Results obtained by employing the Johansen and Juselius (1990 technique of cointegration are supportive of the monetary model in two Pak rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar and the Swiss franc when both short- and long-run interest rates are used and of the flow model in three exchange rates vis-à-vis the British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen when the short-run interest rate is used. These results show that both stock equilibrium in capital markets and flow equilibrium in foreign exchange markets determine Pak rupee exchange rates.

  1. THE DETERMINATION OF THE COSTA RICA COLON/USD EXCHANGE RATE

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare four major exchange rate models for the Costa Rica Colon. We examine exchange rate data for the Costa Rica/U.S. dollar relationship from 1981-2007 and find that monetary models have a higher explanatory ability whereas the Mundell-Fleming model performs better in forecasting exchange rates than other models. The coefficient of the interest rate differential in the uncovered interest parity model has a wrong sign.

  2. Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Chandan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates. The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

  3. Empirical Correction for Differences in Chemical Exchange Rates in Hydrogen Exchange-Mass Spectrometry Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Ronald T; Mills, Brittney J; Joshi, Sangeeta B; Esfandiary, Reza; Bishop, Steven M; Middaugh, C Russell; Volkin, David B; Weis, David D

    2017-09-05

    A barrier to the use of hydrogen exchange-mass spectrometry (HX-MS) in many contexts, especially analytical characterization of various protein therapeutic candidates, is that differences in temperature, pH, ionic strength, buffering agent, or other additives can alter chemical exchange rates, making HX data gathered under differing solution conditions difficult to compare. Here, we present data demonstrating that HX chemical exchange rates can be substantially altered not only by the well-established variables of temperature and pH but also by additives including arginine, guanidine, methionine, and thiocyanate. To compensate for these additive effects, we have developed an empirical method to correct the hydrogen-exchange data for these differences. First, differences in chemical exchange rates are measured by use of an unstructured reporter peptide, YPI. An empirical chemical exchange correction factor, determined by use of the HX data from the reporter peptide, is then applied to the HX measurements obtained from a protein of interest under different solution conditions. We demonstrate that the correction is experimentally sound through simulation and in a proof-of-concept experiment using unstructured peptides under slow-exchange conditions (pD 4.5 at ambient temperature). To illustrate its utility, we applied the correction to HX-MS excipient screening data collected for a pharmaceutically relevant IgG4 mAb being characterized to determine the effects of different formulations on backbone dynamics.

  4. A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Vilela Vieira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

  5. Exchange Rate Instability: Japan's Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mamoru Ishida

    2006-01-01

    Since 1985, the yen-dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far-reaching.Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development.

  6. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  7. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2......) cointegrated VAR model, much of the excess return puzzle disappears when an uncertainty premium in the foreign exchange market, proxied by the persistent PPP gap, is introduced. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms seem to cause the persistence in the Swiss-US parity conditions. These results support imperfect...

  8. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krušković Borivoje D.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a particular interest in the relation between exchange rates and interest rates both in developed countries and emerging countries. This is understandable given the important role that these variables have in determining the movement of nominal and real economic variables, including the movement of domestic inflation, real output, exports and imports, foreign exchange reserves, etc. To realized the importance of the given instruments selected macroeconomic indicators, data analysis (monthly data relating to Serbia was made on the basis of the Transfer Function Model, a data analysis (annual data relating to emerging countries was done on the basis of the Stepvise Multiple Regression model. In the transfer function model we used the Maximum Likelihood method for assessing unknown coefficients. In the gradual multiple regression model we used the Least Square method for the evaluation of unknown coefficients. All indicator values were used in the original unmodified form, i.e. there was no need for a variety of transformations. Empirical analysis showed that the exchange rate is a more significant transmission mechanism than the interest rate both in emerging markets and Serbia.

  9. Importance of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate in the Eurozone and V4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Abrahámek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to determine a potential overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies of selected eurozone countries and of the Visegrád Four. The DARER (Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate model was used for an empirical analysis of the period between 2010–2014 in individual quarters. The advantage of this model is that it explicitly takes into consideration the development of the current account and the debt of the country in connection with the theory of purchasing power parity. The DARER model appears to be a suitable tool for the empirical analysis because, currently, there are many countries in the eurozone with a high debt. In the analysis, data on the current account, debt service payments, GDP, HICP USA and individual researched countries, the exchange rates EUR/USD and CZK/USD, PLN/USD, HUF/USD were used. According to the average overvaluation and undervaluation of currency in all observed states in the Eurozone, in total the overvaluation of the euro against the US dollar was 19.3 %. The overvaluation in individual countries varied from 6.3 % to 33.38 %. These differences in the overvaluation of states’ currency against the US dollar were caused mainly by different development of the balance of payments of the country and the country’s debt. This can indicate various levels of external imbalances among the states within the monetary union. According to the result of this research, the DARER model was able to identify varying overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies in individual eurozone states and the Visegrád Group, so it can be used by policy makers as one of the indicators of these external imbalances of individual countries in the monetary union.

  10. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran’s Raisin Export

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural product export. Considering the importance of agricultural trade to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Raisin export of Iran during the years1959-2011. For this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD). Then, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the value of...

  11. AREVA - First quarter 2011 revenue: 2.7% growth like for like to 1.979 billion euros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The group reported consolidated revenue of 1.979 billion euros in the 1. quarter of 2011, for 2.2% growth compared with the 1. quarter of 2010 (+ 2.7% like for like). The increase was driven by the Mining / Front End Business Group (+ 20.8% LFL). Revenue from outside France rose 12.0% to 1.22 billion euros and represented 62% of total revenue. The impacts of foreign exchange and changes in consolidation scope were negligible during the period. The March 11 events in Japan had no significant impact on the group's performance in the 1. quarter of 2011. The group's backlog of 43.5 billion euros at March 31, 2011 was stable in relation to March 31, 2010. The growth in the backlog of the Mining / Front End and Renewable Energies Business Groups offset the partial depletion of the backlog in the Reactors and Services and Back End Business Groups as contracts were completed

  12. Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility

    OpenAIRE

    Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos

    1991-01-01

    This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout...

  13. Exchange rate policy and external debt in emerging economies: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cebir, Bilgen

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis, we empirically analyze the e ects of exchange rate policy on external debt accumulation in emerging market economies with a sample of 15 countries over the period 1998-2010. The exchange rate policy is captured by the de facto exchange rate classi cation of Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and Rogo (2008). This classification is based on the actual exchange rate behavior rather than the officially declared regimes. Therefore, it is expected to better reflect the exchange rate policies act...

  14. Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

    2017-11-01

    This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

  15. Euro roll rahvusvahelise valuutana / Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Padoa-Schioppa, Tommaso

    2003-01-01

    Autor käsitleb euro erakasutust rahvusvahelises ulatuses, analüüsib euro ametlikku rolli reservvaluutana välisvaluutareservide mitmekesistamise üleüldise arengu tingimustes ning vaatleb euro kasutamist euroalale geograafiliselt lähedastes piirkondades. Lühendatud tõlge autori kõnest 2002. aasta 22. novembril Frankfurdis toimunud Euroopa panganduskongressil

  16. RTE results 2002: positive net income (+112 million euros), in keeping with forecasts, at the end of a year placed under the sign of quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    400 kV transformer -phase shifter at La Praz (Savoie); the reconstruction of the 400 kV interconnection line linking Vigy (France) to Uchtelfangen (Germany), - Completion of the 400 kV line which connects Tavel to Tricastin. As regards services, the offer developed particularly through: base load energy block exchange notifications; the extension of the Non-guaranteed Limited Exceeding of Subscribed Demand service; the continuation between France and Great Britain of the allocation of exchange capacity, in both directions, by means of auctions; a daily allocation of capacity between France and Italy. The year 2002 was that of the total involvement of RTE in the quality approach. All of RTE's operational units and central entities have been certified ISO 9001 V 2000 since 27/12/02. RTE is readying itself in 2003 to obtain the overall certification for the company. At the same time, RTE obtained the ISO 14001 environmental certification for the entire company in 2002. It buried nearly 25% of new high voltage lines and removed 161 km of the existing network. The efforts deployed by RTE and its employees have helped increase customer satisfaction. This is the main conclusion of the survey of 400 customers conducted in 2002, which highlights a customer satisfaction rate close to 90%

  17. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  18. Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Finland during the Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Pösö, Mika; Spolander, Mikko

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, we use a fairly simple monetary macro model to calculate the quarterly measures of exchange market pressure and the degree of the Bank of Finland's intervention during the time the markka was floated. Exchange market pressure measures the size of the exchange rate change that would have occurred if the central bank had unexpectedly refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market. Intervention activity of the central bank is measured as the proportion of exchange marke...

  19. Euro crisis or public debt crisis? With a remedy for the latter case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Sarcinelli

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The European crisis did not originate with the Euro but with the excessive public debt of peripheral Eurozone countries. The ‘great moderation’ that had kept the euro sheltered from the storms proved a boon, because it granted the currency the status of a sound asset, but it was also a bane because it had led euro holders to believe that the euro area had implicitly reached such a degree of cohesion as to make a Greek or Italian government security almost as sound as a German one. If awareness of reality had dawned sooner, interest rates on the peripheral countries’ public debt would have been considerably higher and government leaders might have woken up sooner from the dream of governing a country that could outlast any storm thanks to its ample private wealth, despite its massive public debt.

  20. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    Studies on exchange rate overshooting on the Zambian foreign exchange rate market are .... depreciation between 2008 and 2009 during the great recession. Figure 2 shows ...... manufacturing sector in Nigeria', European Journal of Business and Management, 5(22):. 67–73 .... paper. Washington, DC: IMF Working Paper.

  1. Application for Determination of the Forward Exchange Rate in Access 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana MOCEAN

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate set the present rate for a foreign currency transaction with payment or delivery at some future date. Forward rates are calculated by using the current exchange rate for the currency pair and the interest rates for the two currencies and allow you to lock in rate now for a future. This paper describes the formulas which determinate the forward exchange rate and how can we implement them in a short, but efficient informatics application.

  2. The Brazilian experience in managing interest-exchange rate nexus

    OpenAIRE

    Ricardo Carneiro; Pedro Rossi

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses four main questions: firstly, it discusses some theoretical background related to the interest-exchange rate nexus; secondly, it makes an attempt to explain why the interest rate in Brazil is so high, examining briefly the main explanations for it; thirdly, it describes Brazil’s foreign exchange markets, their size and hierarchy; and lastly, it explains the carry trade dynamics considering the institutionalism of the Brazilian foreign exchange market and also the govern...

  3. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    OpenAIRE

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  4. Exchange Rate Regime and External Adjustment in CEE Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Pietrucha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews effects of exchange rate regime's choice for adjustments processes in current accounts (CA in the Central and Eastern Europe countries between 2008-2012. During the period of global financial crisis, Poland may be treated as a handbook example of the reaction of floating exchange rate to shock and adjustments in the form of expenditure switching. However, the Polish experience is not typical among the Central and Eastern Europe countries. There is no evidence for the positive role of floating exchange rate in macroeconomic adjustments after the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe countries which belong to EU. The adjustments in the countries with fixed regimes were fast and deep. The real exchange rate decreased and export, CA and goods and services balance improved, development distance against EU countries was reduced. However, the experience of Baltic countries, which have internal devaluation, should be very carefully conveyed to other countries.

  5. 78 FR 23321 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Order Granting Approval of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-18

    ... following currencies: euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and Australian dollar. \\5\\ The term ``modified...'s existing surveillance system architecture and processes. Additionally, the Exchange will have... basket of four highly liquid currencies (the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and the Australian dollar...

  6. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  7. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  8. How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Helene Poirson Ward

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate),...

  9. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the impact of real exchange rate misalignment has not received adequate attention .... investment (FDI) and the commercial exploitation of oil in 1999. Notably, the flow of .... the analysis proceeds in two steps: 1) we measure the exchange rate misalignment, ... non-tradable goods (TAX) and the net foreign income (NFI).

  10. The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural export commodities in Nigeria. ... The overall results confirmed that in most cases, the lagged values of exchange rate devaluation had a significant and positive relationship with agricultural export commodities but of a higher magnitude in the Total agricultural ...

  11. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: a Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 4 (2006), s. 727-753 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : exchange rate s * exchange rate regime s * volatility Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.07.003

  12. Are international fund flows related to exchange rate dynamics?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Suxiao; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2018-01-01

    Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD.

  13. Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

  14. A Critical Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policies and the Value of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper critically appraised exchange rate policies and its influence on the value of the domestic currency (i.e. Naira) in Nigeria for the period 1970 through 2002 within the framework of tabular approach. Exchange rate theories and the exchange rate policies prior to SAP, during SAP and after SAP were reviewed.

  15. Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Broda

    2002-01-01

    Since Friedman (1953), an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of seventy-five developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way tha...

  16. Fiscal imbalances and exchange rate management: Greece on the track of EMU

    OpenAIRE

    Δημόπουλος, Γ. Δ.; Φρατζέσκος, Ε. Κ.; Καπόπουλος, Παναγιώτης

    1998-01-01

    Measured against PPP. the drachma effective exchange rate was overvalued by a significant amount, implying that the devaluation on March 1998 was an adjustment of the exchange rate towards the long-run price differentials. The paper also analyses the links between fiscal policy, interest rates and the real exchange rate in Greece and attempts to empirically measure the forces that push the exchange rate toward real appreciation. The results suggest that positive shocks to governme...

  17. Emission trading in Europe with an exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klassen, G.A.J.; Amann, M.; Foersund, F.R.

    1994-01-01

    The analytical and empirical properties of a new method for emission trading according to a fixed exchange rate are explored. The exchange rate is based on the ratios of the marginal costs of abatement in the optimal solution in order to account for the impact of the location of emission sources on the deposition. It is shown that, generally, this system will not achieve the optimal solution and does not guarantee that environmental deposition constraints are not violated, although total abatement costs are always reduced. A routine was developed to mimic trading as a bilateral, sequential process, subject to an exchange rate. Use has been made of an adapted version of the optimization module in the RAINS (REgional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model. In the example used, results for SO 2 emissions in Europe show that, starting from a uniform reduction, exchange-rate trading achieves higher cost savings than one-to-one trading, without achieving the cost minimum. Sulfur deposition targets are not violated since the initial emission allocation overfulfilled targets at many places. The results are sensitive to: pre-trade emission levels, the transaction costs, the availability of information on potential cost savings and assumptions made on the behavior of trading partners. 6 figs., 3 tabs., 28 refs

  18. Quantitation of chemical exchange rates using pulsed-field-gradient diffusion measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrec, Michael; Prestegard, James H.

    1997-01-01

    A new approach to the quantitation of chemical exchange rates is presented, and its utility is illustrated with application to the exchange of protein amide protons with bulk water. The approach consists of a selective-inversion exchange HMQC experiment in which a short spin echo diffusion filter has been inserted into the exchange period. In this way, the kinetics of exchange are encoded directly in an apparent diffusion coefficient which is a function of the position of the diffusion filter in the pulse sequence. A detailed theoretical analysis of this experiment indicates that, in addition to the measurement of simple exchange rates, the experiment is capable of measuring the effect of mediated exchange, e.g. the transfer of magnetization from bulk water to an amide site mediated by an internal bound water molecule or a labile protein side-chain proton in fast exchange with bulk water. Experimental results for rapid water/amide exchange in acyl carrier protein are shown to be quantitatively consistent with the exchange rates measured using a selective-inversion exchange experiment

  19. Multivariable nonlinear analysis of foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

    2003-05-01

    We analyze the multivariable time series of foreign exchange rates. These are price movements that have often been analyzed, and dealing time intervals and spreads between bid and ask prices. Considering dealing time intervals as event timing such as neurons’ firings, we use raster plots (RPs) and peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTHs) which are popular methods in the field of neurophysiology. Introducing special processings to obtaining RPs and PSTHs time histograms for analyzing exchange rates time series, we discover that there exists dynamical interaction among three variables. We also find that adopting multivariables leads to improvements of prediction accuracy.

  20. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  1. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  2. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.

  3. MANAGED FLOAT EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM: THE SINGAPORE EXPERIENCE

    OpenAIRE

    HOE EE KHOR; JASON LEE; EDWARD ROBINSON; SAKTIANDI SUPAAT

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the key characteristics of Singapore's exchange rate-centered monetary policy; in particular, its managed float regime which incorporates key features of the basket, band and crawl system popularized by Williamson (1998, 1999). We assess how the flexibility accorded by this framework has been advantageous in facilitating adjustment to various shocks to the economy. A characterization of the countercyclical nature of Singapore's exchange rate policy is also offered, with re...

  4. Determinants of the AUD/USD Exchange Rate and Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines short-run determinants of the Australian dollar/U.S. dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate based on a simultaneous-equation model. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the AUD/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the 10-year U.S. real government bond yield, U.S. real GDP, the U.S. real stock price and the expected exchange rate and negatively influenced by the Australian real government bond yield, Australian real GDP, and the real Australian stock price.

  5. Exchange Rate Volatility, Its Determinants and Effects on the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Chimaobi V. Okolo; Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi; Kenneth A. Okpala

    2017-01-01

    This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques an...

  6. Apparent exchange rate imaging in anisotropic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Lundell, Henrik M; Søgaard, Lise V

    2014-01-01

    Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate...... the effect of macroscopic tissue anisotropy on the measurement of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) in multicompartment systems....

  7. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  8. A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ozlem Aytac

    2008-01-01

    The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower r...

  9. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  10. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  11. Effectiveness of high interest rate policy on exchange rates: A reexamination of the Asian financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin Diew Lai

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most controversial issues in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of monetary policy to a sharp decline in the value of some currencies. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects on Asian exchange rates of sharply higher interest rates during the Asian financial crisis. Taking account of the currency contagion effect, our results indicate that sharply higher interest rates helped to support the exchange rates of South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. For Malaysia, no significant causal relation is found from the rate of interest to exchange rates, as the authorities in Malaysia did not actively adopt a high interest rate policy to defend the currency.

  12. International finance, Lévy distributions, and the econophysics of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Sergio; Matsushita, Raul; Gleria, Iram; Figueiredo, Annibal; Rathie, Pushpa

    2005-06-01

    This paper surveys the developments in the field of international finance, in particular the research of economists on foreign exchange rates. That might be of interest to physicists working on the econophysics of exchange rates. We show how the econophysics agenda might follow naturally from the economists' research. We also present our own work on the econophysics of exchange rates.

  13. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  14. Current account imbalances in the euro area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available While the current account balance for the euro area as a whole has been in balance, divergences in current account positions among the euro-area members have widened since the introduction of the common currency euro. During the last 13 years Portugal, Greece and Spain have run large and persistent current account deficits, whereas Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland or Germany have displayed during the same period large and persistent surpluses. However, there is no unambiguous agreement among economists, whether this divergence of current account positions of the euro-area countries mirrors growing intra-euro-area imbalances (Gros, 2012 or just reflects proper functioning of the European integration process (Schmitz and von Hagen, 2009. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to estimate equilibrium current account position for each of the original 12 euro area countries so that it is possible to assess whether the divergence of intra-euro current account balances could be explained on the basis of economic fundamentals or it just reflects misallocation of resources and thus macroeconomic imbalances. The equilibrium current account balance is estimated using a panel-econometric technique for a sample of 30 industrial countries, which represent euro-area member states and their main business partners, over the period 1993–2011. Economic fundamentals affecting the equilibrium current account position are selected on the basis of the saving-investment balance, the trade balance and the net income balance, to ensure that we take into an account all theoretically important explanatory variables. We find that the main determinants of current account norms in our sample are fiscal balance, a country’s net international investment position, oil balance and a country’s stage of economic development. The major part of the euro-area countries exhibits current account positions close to their equilibrium levels with the exception of the Netherlands and

  15. Trends of NO-, NO 2-, and NH 3-emissions from gasoline-fueled Euro-3- to Euro-4-passenger cars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeb, Norbert V.; Saxer, Christian J.; Forss, Anna-Maria; Brühlmann, Stefan

    Vehicular emissions of reactive nitrogen compounds (RNCs) such as nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), and ammonia (NH 3) have a substantial impact on urban air quality. NO and NO 2 support the photochemical formation of ozone, and NH 3 is involved in the atmospheric formation of secondary aerosols. Vehicular NO is mainly formed during combustion, whereas NO 2 and NH 3 are both secondary pollutants of the catalytic converter systems. Herein we report on tail-pipe RNC emissions of gasoline-fueled Euro-3- and Euro-4-passenger cars at transient driving from 0 to 150 km h -1. Two sets of 10 in-use vehicles with comparable engine size and mileage were studied with time-resolved chemical ionization-mass spectrometry (CI-MS). Each vehicle was tested in 7 different driving cycles including the legislative European (EDC) and the US FTP-75 driving cycles. Mean emission factors (EFs) for different traffic situations are reported and effects of cold start, velocity, acceleration, and deceleration are discussed. Furthermore, critical operating conditions supporting the de novo formation of NH 3 have been identified. In the EDC, mean NO- and NH 3-EFs of 57±26 and 16±12 mg km -1 were obtained for Euro-3-vehicles; those of the Euro-4-technology were lower by about 25% and 33% at the levels of 43±46 and 10±7 mg km -1, respectively. NO 2 emissions of the investigated three-way catalyst (TWC) vehicles accounted for exhaust. Velocity and acceleration had pronounced effects on the RNC emission characteristics. Mean velocity-dependent EFs for NO and NH 3 varied by about one order of magnitude from 10 to 74 and 15 to 161 mg km -1 for Euro-3-vehicles and from 12 to 44 and 7 to 144 mg km -1 for the Euro-4 fleet. We conclude that the investigated Euro-3- and Euro-4-vehicles are mainly operated under slightly reducing conditions, where the NH 3 emissions dominate over those of the NO. Under these conditions, both vehicle fleets on an average fulfilled the valid Euro-3 and Euro-4

  16. Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

    OpenAIRE

    Hilde Bjørnland

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium is an important issue for policy makers. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are c...

  17. Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Viviana

    2007-04-01

    Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

  18. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... sheet interest rate and foreign exchange rate contracts: a. Interest Rate Contracts i. Single currency... Contracts i. Cross-currency interest rate swaps. ii. Forward foreign exchange rate contracts. iii. Currency... contracts traded on exchanges that require daily payment of variation margins are excluded from the minimum...

  19. Real-world NOx emissions of Euro V and Euro VI heavy duty vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vermeulen, R.; Dekker, H.; Vonk, W.

    2012-04-15

    TNO regularly performs measurements to determine the in-service performance and durability with respect to the pollutant emissions of heavy-duty vehicles under representative driving conditions. The 2011 measurement programme yields new insights regarding the emission performance of the upcoming Euro VI technology for heavy-duty vehicles, mandatory as of 31 December 2013 and, together with the results from earlier performed programmes, leads to conclusions on the emission performance of past and present generations of heavy-duty vehicles (Euro V, EEV)

  20. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND PROTECTION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handan AKSUYEK,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As with all sectors, recent extreme changes occurred in the exchange rates have substantially affected the construction operations. While the rise in foreign exchange rates leads to harmful effects in the negative direction at the operations having foreign exchange – based debt or it provides also advantageous effect in the positive direction at the construction companies having foreign exchange – indexed investments. In this context, this sudden change in foreign exchange rates which cannot be predicted beforehand and emerges as a result of speculative events. As with all operations carrying out foreign exchange – based tasks, these fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate head first among the factors which affect the achievement or failure of the cost or profit targets previously determined by the construction companies as well. Therefore, the companies whose costs and profits consist of different units of currency in their construction agreements should apply to the hedging methods in order to be protected against the exchange rate. As for the main tools of protection method are the derivative products such as forward, futures, swap and optional contracts. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the completion costs of construction projects is scrutinized. Moreover, the tools which may be employed by the construction companies in order to get rid of exchange rate which adversely influence the building companies in both directions have been comparatively evaluated.

  1. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran’s Raisin Export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural product export. Considering the importance of agricultural trade to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Raisin export of Iran during the years1959-2011. For this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD. Then, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the value of Raisin export was examined using Johansen's and Juselius's cointegration method and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM.The results showed that in the long-term and short-term there is a significant relationship between Raisin exports and its main variables (weighted average of Gross income of importers, Wholesale Prices, real exchange rate, Value-added of agricultural sector; as according to the theory it has negative relationship with exchange rate volatility. The error correction coefficient sentence ECM (-1 significantly and its sign was negative as expected. The value of this coefficient is equal to the -0/20 and indicates that about 20 percent of Raisin exports imbalance from its long-term value, after of a period will be Elapse.

  2. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaya Camara Seydou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses macroeconomic instabilities according to exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Based on International Monetary Fund's exchange rate regimes de facto classification, the global sample, SSA, is first divided into two subsamples, which are countries within CFA franc zone (ZCFA and those outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA, and then into four categories, which are the Western Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the countries CFA franc zone with fix exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FIX, and the countries outside CFA franc zone with flexible exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FLEX. By applying advanced statistical and econometric methods upon internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, we show that the inflation, the GDP (or the output and the real exchange rate (RER are very volatile in SSA. However, we found out that they are more volatile in the group HZCFA comparatively to the group ZCFA. We also found out that they are higher in the group HZCFA-FIX than the group HZCFA-FLEX. Moreover, we found out that a high instability of the inflation is combined with those of the output and the RER.

  3. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  4. Dynamical analyses of the time series for three foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong; Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Kyungsik

    2012-05-01

    In this study, we investigate the multifractal properties of three foreign exchange rates (USD-KRW, USD-JPY, and EUR-USD) that are quoted with different economic scales. We estimate and analyze both the generalized Hurst exponent and the autocorrelation function in three foreign exchange rates. The USD-KRW is shown to have the strongest of the Hurst exponents when compared with the other two foreign exchange rates. In particular, the autocorrelation function of the USD-KRW has the largest memory behavior among three foreign exchange rates. It also exhibits a long-memory property in the first quarter, more than those in the other quarters.

  5. Exchange rates of creatine kinase metabolites: feasibility of imaging creatine by chemical exchange saturation transfer MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haris, Mohammad; Nanga, Ravi Prakash Reddy; Singh, Anup; Cai, Kejia; Kogan, Feliks; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2012-11-01

    Creatine (Cr), phosphocreatine (PCr) and adenosine-5-triphosphate (ATP) are major metabolites of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK). The exchange rate of amine protons of CK metabolites at physiological conditions has been limited. In the current study, the exchange rate and logarithmic dissociation constant (pKa) of amine protons of CK metabolites were calculated. Further, the chemical exchange saturation transfer effect (CEST) of amine protons of CK metabolites with bulk water was explored. At physiological temperature and pH, the exchange rate of amine protons in Cr was found to be 7-8 times higher than PCr and ATP. A higher exchange rate in Cr was associated with lower pKa value, suggesting faster dissociation of its amine protons compared to PCr and ATP. CEST MR imaging of these metabolites in vitro in phantoms displayed predominant CEST contrast from Cr and negligible contribution from PCr and ATP with the saturation pulse parameters used in the current study. These results provide a new method to perform high-resolution proton imaging of Cr without contamination from PCr. Potential applications of these finding are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Exchange and Interest Rates prior to EMU: The Case of Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Antzoulatos, Angelos A.; Wilfling, Bernd

    2003-01-01

    Recently a variety of exchange and interest rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. While these stochastic equilibrium models in continous time are theoretically rigorous, a systematic and extensive empirical validation is still lacking. Using exchange and interest rate data collected prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001 this paper tries to fill the gap between theory and...

  7. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Bankim Chadha; Eswar Prasad

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, whereas relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Hi...

  8. The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play?

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of exchange rate regime choices in the determination of capital controls in transition economies. We first use a simultaneous equations model to allow direct interactions between decisions on capital controls and on exchange rate regimes. We find that exchange rate regime choices strongly influence the imposition or removal of capital controls, but the feed-back effect is weak. We further estimate a single equation model for capital controls with exchange rate...

  9. Romanian Policy-Mix to Adopting Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Socol

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the present estate of Euro implementation in Monetary and EconomicUnion (EMU and Romanian position in this context. The Romanian admittance in EU at January 2007increased the interest to study the transmission and coordination mechanisms, related to mix commonmonetary policy – different fiscal policy across the countries in the Euro area. Our study focuses on theconsequences of Romanian admittance in Euro Zone in 2014 and optimal policy-mix to good preparationto accomplish this target. The controversies between economists regarding the construction processof EMU remain large. What are the consequences of implementing the “tye-hands” strategy for Romanianfinancial authorities? Can Romania solve the potential conflict between real and nominal convergencerelating the European integration? What is the best strategy for Romania with the aim to obtain afaster real convergence with the European Union countries? Can Romania maximize the benefits toadopting Euro in 2014?

  10. Oxygen isotope exchange rate between dissolved sulfate and water at hydrothermal temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiba, H.; Sakai, H.

    1985-01-01

    Oxygen isotope exchange rate between dissolved sulfate and water was experimentally determined at 100, 200 and 300 deg C. The isotope exchange rate is strongly dependent on temperature and pH of the solution. Combining the temperature and pH dependence of the reaction rate, the exchange reaction was estimated to be first-order with respect to sulfate. The logarithm of apparent rate constant of exchange reaction at a given temperature is a function of the pH calculated at the experimental temperatures. From the pH dependence of the apparent rate constant, it was deduced that the isotope exchange reaction between dissolved sulfate and water proceeds through collision between H 2 SO 4 0 and H 2 O at low pH, and between HSO 4 - and H 2 O at intermediate pH. The isotope exchange rate obtained indicates that oxygen isotope geothermometry utilizing the studied isotope exchange is suitable for temperature estimation of geothermal reservoirs. The extrapolated half-life of this reaction to oceanic temperature is about 10 9 years, implying that exchange between oceanic sulfate and water cannot control the oxygen isotope ratio of oceanic sulfates. (author)

  11. AREVA - First quarter 2011 revenue: 2.7% growth like for like to 1.979 billion euros; AREVA - chiffre d'affaires au 1er trimestre 2011: 1979 millions d'euros, soit une croissance de 2,7% a donnees comparables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    The group reported consolidated revenue of 1.979 billion euros in the 1. quarter of 2011, for 2.2% growth compared with the 1. quarter of 2010 (+ 2.7% like for like). The increase was driven by the Mining / Front End Business Group (+ 20.8% LFL). Revenue from outside France rose 12.0% to 1.22 billion euros and represented 62% of total revenue. The impacts of foreign exchange and changes in consolidation scope were negligible during the period. The March 11 events in Japan had no significant impact on the group's performance in the 1. quarter of 2011. The group's backlog of 43.5 billion euros at March 31, 2011 was stable in relation to March 31, 2010. The growth in the backlog of the Mining / Front End and Renewable Energies Business Groups offset the partial depletion of the backlog in the Reactors and Services and Back End Business Groups as contracts were completed

  12. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  13. Targeting the Real Exchange Rate; Theory and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos A. Végh Gramont; Guillermo Calvo; Carmen Reinhart

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the mo...

  14. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  15. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  16. A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. de Jong (Abe); J. Ligterink; V. Macrae

    2002-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50% of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a

  17. International trade and exchange rate volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M.A. Viaene (Jean-Marie); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractFor currencies with well developed forward markets several papers have investigated the conjectured negative relationship between trade and short term exchange rate volatility, without being very successful. A theoretical explanation for the empirical anomalies is provided by solving

  18. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  19. Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.

  20. Heart valve surgery: EuroSCORE vs. EuroSCORE II vs. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Sharoz Rabbani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background This is a validation study comparing the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II with the previous additive (AES and logistic EuroSCORE (LES and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ (STS risk prediction algorithm, for patients undergoing valve replacement with or without bypass in Pakistan. Patients and Methods Clinical data of 576 patients undergoing valve replacement surgery between 2006 and 2013 were retrospectively collected and individual expected risks of death were calculated by all four risk prediction algorithms. Performance of these risk algorithms was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results There were 28 deaths (4.8% among 576 patients, which was lower than the predicted mortality of 5.16%, 6.96% and 4.94% by AES, LES and EuroSCORE II but was higher than 2.13% predicted by STS scoring system. For single and double valve replacement procedures, EuroSCORE II was the best predictor of mortality with highest Hosmer and Lemmeshow test (H-L p value (0.346 to 0.689 and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (0.637 to 0.898. For valve plus concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG patients actual mortality was 1.88%. STS calculator came out to be the best predictor of mortality for this subgroup with H-L p value (0.480 to 0.884 and ROC (0.657 to 0.775. Conclusions For Pakistani population EuroSCORE II is an accurate predictor for individual operative risk in patients undergoing isolated valve surgery, whereas STS performs better in the valve plus CABG group.

  1. NOVOS ENFOQUES SOBRE O FORMATIVO EURO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alexandre V. Gonçalves

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available No presente artigo, discute-se o estatuto morfológico do formativo euro-, em construções como ‘euro-mercado’, ‘euro-cêntrico’ e ‘euro-trocínio’, observando como se comporta esse elemento morfológico em relação aos critérios propostos por Kastvosky (2009 e por Gonçalves & Andrade (2012 para diferenciar afixos de radicais. Com a realização deste trabalho, verifica-se em que medida o formativo comporta-se como radical e em que aspectos equivale a um afixo. Para tanto, procedeu-se à coleta de dados em dicionários (HOUAISS, 2009; COROMINAS & PASCUAL, 1980; CUNHA, 1982; MACHADO, 1967 e na rede mundial de computadores (uso da ferramenta eletrônica de busca Google. Recorreu-se, ainda, ao artigo de Correia (1989, que apresenta um apêndice com os dados utilizados para análise do formativo no português europeu. Palavras-chave: Morfologia. Composição. Derivação. Abstract In this paper, we discuss the status of the formative euro- in constructions as ‘euro-mercado’ (European market, ‘eurocêntrico’ (someone who finds the center of the world is the Europe and ‘eurotrocínio’ (sponsorship of Europe, noting how this element behaves in relation to morphological criteria proposed by Kastvosky (2009 and Goncalves & Andrade (2012 to differentiate affixes by radicals. With this work, we verify to what extent euro-behaves as a radical and in what respects is equivalent to an affix. Therefore, we collect data in dictionaries (HOUAISS, 2009; COROMINAS & PASCUAL, 1980; CUNHA, 1982; MACHADO, 1967 and in the World Wide Web (with the help of Google. We also used the paper by Correia (1989, which presents an appendix with the data used for the analysis of this formative in European Portuguese. Keywords: Morphology. Compounding. Derivation.

  2. China’s Exchange Rate Policy: A Double Edged Sword

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    market.10 These four characteristics allowed the East Asian countries of Japan, Taiwan , and South Korea to develop at exponential rates for decades. This...EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Chapter II provides background on important factors affecting China’s exchange rate policy, as well as an overview of its...include telecommunications, tourism , hospitality, 51 World’s Richest Countries, “Top Ten Chinese

  3. Equilibrium exchange rate assessment in Serbia using the IMF external sustainability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate has always been a topical issue, particularly in the last two decades, at the time of strong world economy globalisation, as well as liberalization of international flows of goods, services and factors of production, which has resulted in stronger trade and financial integration. There has been a rise in the share of trade in world GDP. Growing developing countries contribute significantly to this growth, which is evident from the data that show increase of their share in world trade , as well as their importance in international capital flows. One of the most important concepts in open macroeconomics is the equilibrium real exchange rate - ERER. Deviations of the real exchange rate are considered to be the cause of the loss of competitiveness and economic slowdown, as well as possible currency crisis (overvaluation and undervaluation. Disadvantages of traditional concepts in exchange rate assessment which are very often reflected in unsuccessful empirical results, motivate experts to seek alternative models to assist in equilibrium exchange rate analysis. This paper aims to present one of three complementary methodologies used by the International Monetary Fund, for the equilibrium real exchange rate assessment in Serbia, as well as the deviation of the real exchange rate from its (estimated equilibrium, that is external sustainability approach.

  4. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility

    OpenAIRE

    Guillermo Calvo; Carlos A. Végh Gramont

    1991-01-01

    This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout th...

  5. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  6. MULTIFRACTAL STRUCTURE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cn#259;pun#351;an Rn#259;zvan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that empirical data coming from financial markets, like stock market indices, commodities, interest rates, traded volumes and foreign exchange rates have a multifractal structure. Multifractals were introduced in the field of economics to surpass the shortcomings of classical models like the fractional Brownian motion or GARCH processes. In this paper we investigate the multifractal behavior of Central and Eastern European foreign exchange rates, namely the Czech koruna, Croatian kuna, Hungarian forint, Polish zlot, Romanian leu and Russian rouble with respect to euro from January 13, 2000 to February 29, 2012. The dynamics of exchange rates is of interest for investors and traders, monetary and fiscal authorities, economic agents or policy makers. The exchange rate movements affect the international balance of payments, trade flows, and allocation of the resources in national and international economy. The empirical results from the multifractal detrending fluctuation analysis algorithm show that the six exchange rate series analysed display significant multifractality. Moreover, generating shuffled and surrogate time series, we analyze the sources of multifractality, long-range correlations and heavy-tailed distributions, and we find that this multifractal behavior can be mainly attributed to the latter. Finally, we propose a foreign exchange market inefficiency ranking by considering the multifractality degree as a measure of inefficiency. The regulators, through policy instruments, aim to improve the informational inefficiency of the markets, to reduce the associated risks and to ensure economic stabilization. Evaluation of the degree of information efficiency of foreign exchange markets, for Central and Eastern Europe countries, is important to assess to what extent these countries are prepared for the transition towards fully monetary integration. The weak form efficiency implies that the past exchange rates cannot help to

  7. Some stylised facts about the exchange rate behaviour of Central European currencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Vejmělek

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates developments of exchange rate time series of Central European currencies and tries to find evidence of some stylised facts. Statistical methods and an econometric approach to the univariate time series modelling of high-frequency data, i.e., daily, are used. The main conclusions are as follows: (1 All the CE nominal exchange time series are not stationary: nevertheless, stationarity of all the return time series was confirmed. (2 Volatility clustering was proven and the GARCH modelling approach was successfully applied, including asymmetric modelling of volatility. (3 The more flexible an exchange rate regime is, the more volatile the respective currency. This is true for both nominal and real exchange rates. While nominal volatility is lower than real volatility in a system of fixed or less flexible exchange rates, the opposite is true for flexible systems: exchange rate volatility is higher in nominal terms than in real terms.

  8. Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries

    OpenAIRE

    Toshitaka Sekine

    2006-01-01

    This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through of six major industrial countries using a time-varying parameter with stochastic volatility model. Exchange rate pass-through is divided into impacts of exchange rate fluctuations to import prices (first-stage pass-through) and those of import price movements to consumer prices (second-stage pass-through). The paper finds that both stages of pass-through have declined over time for all the sample countries. The decline in second-stage pass-throu...

  9. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Dražen Koški

    2008-01-01

    The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchan...

  10. Unpredictable After All? A short note on exchange rate predictability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractEarlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including

  11. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Radiochemistry

    2016-11-01

    Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of {sup 14}C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  12. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    Radiocarbon ( 14 C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO 3 ) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of 14 C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  13. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian evidence. ... income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the ... partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency.

  14. Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates Between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Wook Han

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

  15. Productivity Demand Shocks And Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Ordean Olson

    2011-01-01

    The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivities for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate significant relationships for the Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. Only when a...

  16. Football and exchange rates: empirical support for behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eker, Gulin; Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Burak

    2007-10-01

    Recently, economic theory has been expanded to incorporate emotions, which have been assumed to play an important role in financial decisions. The present study illustrates this by showing a connection between the sports performance of popular national football teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce, and Galatasaray) and performance of the Turkish economy. Specifically, a significant positive association was found between the success of three major professional Turkish football teams and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar. The effect of the football success of several Turkish football teams on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira was examined using the simultaneous multiple regression model with predictor measures of wins, losses, and ties for different combinations of teams to predict the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira between the years 1987 and 2003. Wins by Turkish football teams against foreign (non-Turkish) rivals increased with exchange rate depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.

  17. Exchange rate determination and the flaws of mainstream monetary theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HEINER FLASSBECK

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Developing countries in general need flexibility and a sufficient number of instruments to prevent excessive volatility. Evidence does not support the orthodox belief that, with free floating, international financial markets will perform that role by smoothly adjusting exchange rates to their “equilibrium” level. In reality, exchange rates under a floating regime have proved to be highly unstable, leading to long spells of misalignment. The experience with hard pegs has not been satisfactory either: the exchange rate could not be corrected in cases of external shocks or misalignment. Given this experience, “intermediate” regimes are preferable when there is instability in international financial markets.

  18. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  19. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhenquan; Ye Gaoxiang; Ke Jianhong

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikj υ , and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution a k (t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function Φ(x) = exp (x).

  20. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  1. Exchange rate pass-through and the role of international distribution channels

    OpenAIRE

    Desiraju, Ramarao; Shrikhande, Milind

    1996-01-01

    Manufacturers selling in foreign markets often do not completely pass on the effects of fluctuations in exchange rates to the prices of their products. Our paper addresses this puzzle and studies the effects of the international distribution channel on exchange rate pass-through. We develop an exchange rate pass-through model that takes into account the role of an intermediary between a domestic manufacturer and its consumers in a foreign market. We find that the magnitude of the pass-through...

  2. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Paul De Grauwe; Gunther Schnabl

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU candidate countries. The panel estimations for the period between 1994 and 2002 show that de facto measures of exchange rate stability have a better explanatory power than the de jure measures in the inflation and growth equations. For the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact of exchange rate stability on low inflation as well as a hig...

  3. Perceived value in food selection when dining out: comparison of African Americans and Euro-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinci, Debra M; Philipp, Steven F

    2007-06-01

    This descriptive study compares African Americans' and Euro-Americans' perceived value of food selection pertaining to cost, portion size, and meal satisfaction when eating away from home. A stratified sample was drawn from a southern U.S. metropolitan area (N= 1,011; 486 African American, 525 Euro-American). Analysis showed no difference between African-American and Euro-American adults by sex or how often they dined out. These two groups significantly differed across years of education, age, and answering 14 of 18 rated statements on value perceptions. African-Americans' value perceptions were influenced more by lower cost foods and larger portion sizes than those of Euro-Americans. For meal satisfaction, African Americans were more likely to agree with statements that indicate preferring foods high in energy and low in essential micronutrient density. This study supports the need for more investigation.

  4. Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Won/Dollar and Won/Yen Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghwan Oh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines, using various models including a non-linear one, that the Balassa-Samuelson (BS effect can account for the persistence of deviations from PPP in the long-run movements of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rates. In test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using the generalized Johansen' cointegration method, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and the productivity variables of two countries. And in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates other fundamentals such as cumulative current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, terms of trade as well as productivity differentials, using a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and all of these fundamentals. However, the plus sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity differentials variable, which means that domestic productivity improvement produces increase in each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate is not coincident with the result that the BS effect expects theoretically. Finally, in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using a non-linear STAR model, it is found that the adjustment process in case of won/dollar real exchange rate from the long-run equilibrium level can be adequately explained by a non-linear LSTAR model. But, the evidence of diagnostic statistics, which shows the existence of autocorrelation of the residuals in most of lags, might suggest the inadequacy of LSTAR model specification.

  5. External causes of euro zone inflation differentials : A re-examniation of the evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Verhoef, B.

    2004-01-01

    This article focuses on external causes of Euro Zone inflation differential. Persistent inflation differences may influence inflationary expectations and can amplify regional business cycles. With a uniform nominal interest rate, the domestic real interest rates will be lower in high inflation

  6. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Trifonova; Milena Kovachevich

    2016-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of...

  7. Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Vinhas de Souza

    2002-01-01

    textabstractHere the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author

  8. Hbo's: 1000 euro extra per allochtone leerling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Volkskrant

    2006-01-01

    De vier grote hogescholen in de Randstad willen 1000 euro extra voor elke student van laag opgeleide ouders. Bestuursvoorzitter Pim Breebaart van de Haag-se Hogeschool verwacht dat dit de schatkist bijna 20 miljoen euro zal kosten.

  9. TARGET - NEW PAYMENT SYSTEM FOR THE EURO AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ELENA VIOLETA DRĂGOI

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available At EU level, the funds transfer systems have undergone significant changes starting with the introduction of euro. The launch of the euro, the emergence of new technologies, introduction of financial innovations and the globalization have led to reorganization of funds transfer systems` infrastructure. The paper aims to offer an analysis of actual payment system for Euro area, a trans-European funds transfer system with gross settlement in real-time for payments in euro TARGET- to increase economical and operational efficiency of payments and also to reduce the risks in the electronic funds transfer system by creating efficient and secure payment systems.

  10. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    OpenAIRE

    JOSIFIDIS, Kosta; PUCAR, Emilija Beker; SUPIĆ, Novica

    2010-01-01

    The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former) transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, a...

  11. Perception of Euro in Poland – Economic and Psychological Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Matyja

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Diagnosis of the opportunities and threats associated with the introduction of the euro in Poland was the main focus of this study. The research had two main objectives: exploratory and operational. The exploratory objective was to capture the structure of convictions affecting Poles’ attitudes toward the introduction of the euro. The operational objective was to verify which of those convictions have the most infl uence on the lack of support for the introduction of the euro. Methodology: The research was conducted with a national random sample (n=509 of Polish citizens. The CAPI/ CASI face-to-face questionnaire was used. Findings: There exists a multi-level structure of attitudes towards the euro. The attitude toward the introduction of the euro is explained by attitudes toward the euro and the Polish zloty, perceived gains and losses from introduction of the euro and life attitudes. One cannot force another individual to support the introduction of the euro. However, one can act upon the convictions of the nation, which has a major impact on raising euro acceptance. The most impact is from strengthening of national beliefs, which strongly and positively affect the level of euro acceptance, whereas any reduction lowers the acceptance of the introduction of a new currency. Limitations: As any other social phenomena, money perception is very dynamic and dependent on current political and social issues. Therefore, despite the fact that the model seems to defi ne the factors and their influence on euro perception very accurately, it is essential that every time it is applied, the current state of mind of the society is measured. Furthermore, additional research should be conducted for groups deviating from the average results for the society. Originality: The practical aspect of this research is the opportunity to point out convictions, which need to be modified to increase euro acceptance.

  12. Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes:The European Evidence 1974-1998

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kool, C.J.M.; Lammertsma, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we empirically investigate the link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence in Europe. We introduce the lagged level of the real exchange rate as an appropriate indicator of exchange rate accommodation. We correspondingly estimate a non-linear autoregressive

  13. The Role of Exchange Rates in Korea’s Commodity Trade with China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gab-Je Jo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in deterIn this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in determining the bilateral trade balance between Korea and China, nor does it improve the disaggregated trade balance. This is because the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance depends on the nature of the commodity. Especially if the commodity is an intermediate good or a raw material, the exchange rate elasticity in trade balance could be inelastic because the demand for the intermediate good is a derived demand from the final good.

  14. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Trifonova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of public debt?

  15. Chaotic spin exchange: is the spin non-flip rate observable?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senba, Masayoshi

    1994-01-01

    If spin exchange is of the Poisson nature, that is, if the time distribution of collisions obeys an exponential distribution function and the collision process is random, the muon spin depolarization is determined only by the spin flip rate regardless of the spin non-flip rate. In this work, spin exchange is discussed in the case of chaotic spin exchange, where the distribution of collision time sequences, generated by a deterministic equation, is exponential but not random (deterministic chaos). Even though this process has the same time distribution as a Poisson process, the muon polarization is affected by the spin non-flip rate. Having an exponential time distribution function is not a sufficient condition for the non-observation of the spin non-flip rate and it is essential that the process is also random. (orig.)

  16. IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN CONTEMPORARY VIETNAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    The Dong Phung

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the issue of effectiveness of exchange rate policy in contemporary Vietnam, along with the assessment of the mechanism of this policy from 1989 to the present day. The author analyzes constraints of implementing the exchange rate policy in the past and gives recommendations aimed at improving its efficiency nowadays.

  17. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  18. The American Foreign Exchange Option in Time-Dependent One-Dimensional Diffusion Model for Exchange Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, Nasir; Shashiashvili, Malkhaz

    2009-01-01

    The classical Garman-Kohlhagen model for the currency exchange assumes that the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates are constant and the exchange rate follows a log-normal diffusion process.In this paper we consider the general case, when exchange rate evolves according to arbitrary one-dimensional diffusion process with local volatility that is the function of time and the current exchange rate and where the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates may be arbitrary continuous functions of time. First non-trivial problem we encounter in time-dependent case is the continuity in time argument of the value function of the American put option and the regularity properties of the optimal exercise boundary. We establish these properties based on systematic use of the monotonicity in volatility for the value functions of the American as well as European options with convex payoffs together with the Dynamic Programming Principle and we obtain certain type of comparison result for the value functions and corresponding exercise boundaries for the American puts with different strikes, maturities and volatilities.Starting from the latter fact that the optimal exercise boundary curve is left continuous with right-hand limits we give a mathematically rigorous and transparent derivation of the significant early exercise premium representation for the value function of the American foreign exchange put option as the sum of the European put option value function and the early exercise premium.The proof essentially relies on the particular property of the stochastic integral with respect to arbitrary continuous semimartingale over the predictable subsets of its zeros. We derive from the latter the nonlinear integral equation for the optimal exercise boundary which can be studied by numerical methods

  19. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas

    correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive......This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics....

  20. Forecasting exchange rates; Kawase yosoku no riron to jissai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiuchi, T. [The Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-20

    This paper explains the theory and practice of foreign exchange rate fluctuation. It also explains various factors that constitute the reasons for the difficulty of forecasting the fluctuation in a short to medium period of time as a practical problem, even though forecasting it over a long period of time may be possible theoretically. Export, of which payment received in dollars cannot be used unless exchanged to yen, forms the yen buying demand. Increase in export and trade surplus turns into pressure for the yen appreciation after all. The amounts of exports and imports depend on such fundamentals as productivity and inflation in the country, as well as the cycle of strong business conditions and recession. Staggering of business conditions in Japan and the U.S. causes trade imbalance and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Attempts of grabbing the basic tone of the foreign exchange rates upon equalizing the business conditions in both countries is the purchasing power parity theory, which in fact can explain the long-term fluctuations in the past data. However, in the actual scenes where forecasting over a short to medium period is demanded, the forecasting actions are disturbed by such factors lying complexly as exports and imports of capitals, that is the capital circulation in long and short periods, foreign exchange tradings, and difference in interests inside and outside the country. 3 figs.

  1. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  2. Assessing nonlinear structures in real exchange rates using recurrence plot strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belaire-Franch, Jorge; Contreras, Dulce; Tordera-Lledó, Lorena

    2002-11-01

    Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an important theory at the basis of a large number of economic models. However, the implication derived from the theory that real exchange rates must follow stationary processes is not conclusively supported by empirical studies. In a recent paper, Serletis and Gogas [Appl. Finance Econ. 10 (2000) 615] show evidence of deterministic chaos in several OECD exchange rates. As a consequence, PPP rejections could be spurious. In this work, we follow a two-stage testing procedure to test for nonlinearities and chaos in real exchange rates, using a new set of techniques designed by Webber and Zbilut [J. Appl. Physiol. 76 (1994) 965], called recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). Our conclusions differ slightly from Serletis and Gogas [Appl. Finance Econ. 10 (2000) 615], but they are also supportive of chaos for some exchange rates.

  3. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  4. THE CERN HEALTH INSURANCE SCHEME AND THE EURO

    CERN Document Server

    Human Resources Division

    2002-01-01

    Since 1 January 2002, the euro is the common currency of 12 European countries and some 300 million people. Of course, such a change has some consequences on our Health Insurance Scheme. As you know, when filling in the medical expenses claim form, you are required to indicate a currency code, i.e. the currency in which you have incurred medical expenses. You may have noticed that the euro is not yet on the list of currencies which appear on the bottom left of the existing form. This will be changed very soon, once the stock of existing forms has been used up. Until then, please note that the currency code for the euro is 002 (easy to remember since the code for the Swiss franc is 001). If you forget this code, don't worry! Just indicate «euro» next to the amount of your medical bill, or simply use the euro symbol!

  5. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE INFLATION: EMPIRICAL SURVEY FOR ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    Catalina Adriana Handoreanu

    2008-01-01

    The influence on price level of changes in exchange rate comeback in the last period in the attention of economists and policy makers. The price level movement due to the changes in the exchange rate is named exchange rate pass-through and is important for the monetary policy and for the exchange rate choice. A reduced passthrough makes the monetary policy more independent and more easily implementation of inflation targeting. This working paper analyzed this phenomenon through a recursive eq...

  6. Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda

    2001-01-01

    The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in Zambia. It first gives a brief review of the Zambian economy and a review on real exchange rate studies. Then an illustrative model is presented. The study employs cointegration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports, and of the internal real exchange rate. The finding is that terms of trade, government consumption, and investment share all influence the real exch...

  7. Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavárek Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

  8. EuroCirCol kick-off event

    CERN Multimedia

    Hardre, Julie

    2015-01-01

    The EuroCirCol (http://cern.ch/eurocircol) kick-off event at CERN on June 2-4 brought together 62 participants to constitute governance bodies, commit to the project plan and align the organisation, structures and processes of 16 institutions from 10 countries. The goal of the project is to conceive a post-LHC research infrastructure around a 100 km circular energy-frontier hadron collider capable of reaching 100 TeV collisions. The project officially started on June 1 and will run for four years. The total estimated budget of 11.2 million Euros includes a 2.99 million Euro contribution from the Horizon 2020 programme on developing new world-class research infrastructures (http://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/194962_en.html).

  9. Poland’s Public Finance Convergence with the Euro Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Situation of Poland's public finances has been improving. Helped by solid economic growth in 2011, Poland has reduced its budget deficit in line with the Commission's recommendations. Contrary to earlier forecasts, in 2012 it was slightly above the ceiling of 3% of GDP. It should be further reduced to reach in 2015 the level of 1% of GDP in terms structural deficit. The slowdown of the economy in 2012 and probably in 2013 will not make this task easy, however.Public debt has risen steadily over the past few years but level has been in recent times still well below the 60% of GDP ceiling.The national reform programme and the convergence programme were adopted by Poland’s Council of Ministers on 25 April 2012. The convergence programme outlined in an integrated manner the fiscal consolidation efforts, the key structural reforms and the reforms that underpin macroeconomic stabilisation.In the medium to long term, Poland is faced with a number of challenges. A very low labour force participation rate, in particular of women, and the poor quality of vocational training and education are major concerns given an ageing population. The low level of public and private R&D spending, weak links between science and industry and the poor innovation performance call for improvements.Apart from programme of national reforms, crucial for future sustained economic growth and good performance of public finances, an additional factor stimulating activities towards fiscal improvement should be Poland’s participation in a strengthened economic governance architecture recently introduced in the EU.Euro adoption remains an important goal of Polish government. The uncertain situation in the euro zone has, however, postponed adoption of a clear timetable of joining the euro zone. The government decided that an additional condition to join the euro zone, apart from meeting the nominal convergence criteria (and legal conditions not discussed here, is stabilisation of

  10. The performance of exchange rate regimes in three SADC countries: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard N. Iyke

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the real exchange rate and economic growth dynamics in three low-income Southern African countries, namely: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC, Malawi and Mozambique. Specifically, the paper investigates the nature of exchange rate regimes and the impact that they have on economic growth, as well as the movement of real exchange rates and real GDP from 1970—2010 in these countries. The paper identifies the following trends: Fixed exchange regimes were pursued from the 1960s until the late 1980s and early 1990s in these countries, which were growth-repressing; the countries pursued floating and managed-floating regimes from the 1990s to date, resulting in moderate-to-rapid economic growth. We conclude that liberalised exchange rates, which lead to undervalued currencies in these Southern African countries, were growth-enhancing.

  11. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US

  12. A firm-specific exposure analyis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Ligterink, J.; Macrae, V.

    2006-01-01

    We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a

  13. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kosta JOSIFIDIS

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, and implicit/explicit inflation targeting monetary regime and floating (managed/free exchange rate regime. The monetary transmission is tracked during different phases in a transition process towards the EU and compared between different nominal anchors and exchange rate regimes. In order to track the influence of a monetary policy instruments (impulses to different goals of a monetary policy (responses during the period from 6-24 months, we use VAR and VEC models. Monthly frequency of following time series are used in the models: nominal exchange rates, consumer price indexes, foreign exchange reserves, and reference interest rates. The aim of the paper is to point to the distinction between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and to the adequacy of used combination of monetary and exchange rate regimes having in mind revealed features of investigated monetary transmission channels.

  14. Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: the view from the tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); Ph.A. Stork (Philip); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical unconditional distribution of foreign exchange rate returns there is indication that the type of distribution function is related to the form of exchange rate regime. The analysis has been hampered by the nonnestedness of alternative distribution

  15. Dilution effects on ultrafine particle emissions from Euro 5 and Euro 6 diesel and gasoline vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Cédric; Liu, Yao; Martinet, Simon; D'Anna, Barbara; Valiente, Alvaro Martinez; Boreave, Antoinette; R'Mili, Badr; Tassel, Patrick; Perret, Pascal; André, Michel

    2017-11-01

    Dilution and temperature used during sampling of vehicle exhaust can modify particle number concentration and size distribution. Two experiments were performed on a chassis dynamometer to assess exhaust dilution and temperature on particle number and particle size distribution for Euro 5 and Euro 6 vehicles. In the first experiment, the effects of dilution (ratio from 8 to 4 000) and temperature (ranging from 50 °C to 150 °C) on particle quantification were investigated directly from tailpipe for a diesel and a gasoline Euro 5 vehicles. In the second experiment, particle emissions from Euro 6 diesel and gasoline vehicles directly sampled from the tailpipe were compared to the constant volume sampling (CVS) measurements under similar sampling conditions. Low primary dilutions (3-5) induced an increase in particle number concentration by a factor of 2 compared to high primary dilutions (12-20). Low dilution temperatures (50 °C) induced 1.4-3 times higher particle number concentration than high dilution temperatures (150 °C). For the Euro 6 gasoline vehicle with direct injection, constant volume sampling (CVS) particle number concentrations were higher than after the tailpipe by a factor of 6, 80 and 22 for Artemis urban, road and motorway, respectively. For the same vehicle, particle size distribution measured after the tailpipe was centred on 10 nm, and particles were smaller than the ones measured after CVS that was centred between 50 nm and 70 nm. The high particle concentration (≈106 #/cm3) and the growth of diameter, measured in the CVS, highlighted aerosol transformations, such as nucleation, condensation and coagulation occurring in the sampling system and this might have biased the particle measurements.

  16. Sensitivity of molecular vibrational dynamics to energy exchange rate constants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billing, G D; Coletti, C; Kurnosov, A K; Napartovich, A P

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of molecular vibrational population dynamics, governing the CO laser operated in fundamental and overtone transitions, to vibration-to-vibration rate constants is investigated. With this aim, three rate constant sets have been used, differing in their completeness (i.e. accounting for single-quantum exchange only, or for multi-quantum exchange with a limited number of rate constants obtained by semiclassical calculations, and, finally, with an exhaustive set of rate constants including asymmetric exchange processes, as well) and in the employed interaction potential. The most complete set among these three is introduced in this paper. An existing earlier kinetic model was updated to include the latter new data. Comparison of data produced by kinetic modelling with the above mentioned sets of rate constants shows that the vibrational distribution function, and, in particular, the CO overtone laser characteristics, are very sensitive to the choice of the model. The most complete model predicts slower evolution of the vibrational distribution, in qualitative agreement with experiments

  17. The evolutionary synchronization of the exchange rate system in ASEAN+6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo; Wang, Xiaofan

    2010-12-01

    Although there are extensive researches on the behavior of the world currency network, the complexity of the Asian regional currency system is not well understood regardless of its importance. Using daily exchange rates this paper examines exchange rate co-movements in the region before and after the China exchange rate reform. It was found that the correlation between Asian currencies and the US Dollar, the previous regional key currency has become weaker and intra-Asia interactions have increased. Cross sample entropy and cross entropy approaches are also applied to examine the synchrony behavior among the Asian currencies. The study also shows that the Asian exchange rate markets featured are neither stochastic nor efficient. These findings may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of collective behaviors in a regional currency network; they will also lay a theoretical foundation for further policy formulation in Asian currency integration.

  18. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  19. EURO AREA FISCAL STRUCTURES. A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HURDUZEU Gheorghe

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The European framework for fiscal policies is constructed mainly on the objective of monitoring budget balances and public debt, allowing national governments to decide on the specific fiscal policy that is more suitable to their internal context and public needs. However, for Euro Area member states this autonomy is restricted by the conditions imposed through the Stability and Growth Pact. As the recent macroeconomic dynamics underlined the necesity of improving the fiscal outcomes, the fiscal framework was updated and modified by the provisions of the new European economic governance meant to avoid unsound and unsustainable fiscal policies that could affect the stability of other Euro Area member states. The Six-Pack, the Fiscal Compact and the other conditions imposed by the reform of the fiscal governance framework are meant to ensure more discipline in drafting and executing national budgets. Even so, national authorities maintain their fiscal sovereignty and the decision regarding fiscal structures remains at their disposal, as long as the drafts are approved and the outcomes are maintained in the limits imposed through the supranational fiscal framework. Regardless of the numerous differences between member states, similar trends regarding tax mixes can be noticed in time. The objectives of this paper is to analyze fiscal structures of Euro Area member states and to determine, if any, groups with similar fiscal structures, their composition and the similarities that characterize Euro Area in this respect. In order to have a clear overview of fiscal structures within Euro Area, we analyzed data for 17 member states, for year 2012, taking into consideration total general government revenue, indirect taxation, direct taxation and social contributions. As one of the aims of this paper is to determine whether in Euro Area the main contributors are corporations or individuals, we also analyzed the structure of direct taxation, dividing it into

  20. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  1. On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan C.; Taylor, Mark P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that mean reversion increases with the degree of exchange rate misalignment. Second, a STR-GARCH model suggests that RBA interventions account for this result by strengthening foreign exchange traders' confid...

  2. Some Tests of Random Walk Hypothesis for Bulgarian Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolai Gueorguiev

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to check if the exchange rate in newly emerged, relatively thin foreign exchange markets, follows a random walk pattern. The findings of the current study cast doubts on random walk presence in Bulgarian exchange rates against major international currencies. It turns out that the series of daily returns are stationary but correlated and therefore can be modelled better by higher-order ARIMA processes than by random walk.

  3. Isotopic exchange rate of sodium ions between hydrous metal oxides and aqueous solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Yasushi; Yamazaki, Hiromichi

    1991-01-01

    To elucidate the kinetics of ion-exchange reaction on hydrous metal oxide, the isotopic exchange rates of sodium ions between hydrous metal oxides such as hydrous tin (IV), niobium (V), zirconium (IV) and titanium (IV) oxides, and aqueous solutions were measured radiochemically and compared with each other. The rate of reaction cannot be understood by an unified view since the rate controlling step differs with the kind of exchangers. The rate constants relevant to each exchanger such as diffusion constants and their activation energies were also determined. (author)

  4. EuroSCORE models in a cohort of patients with valvular heart disease and a high prevalence of rheumatic fever submitted to surgical procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casalino, Ricardo; Tarasoutchi, Flávio; Spina, Guilherme; Katz, Marcelo; Bacelar, Antonio; Sampaio, Roney; Ranzani, Otavio T; Pomerantzeff, Pablo M; Grinberg, Max

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological differences can be found between Brazilian and European valvular heart disease patients. The prevalence of heart valve diseases due to rheumatic disease is significantly higher in the Brazilian compared with the European population. Therefore, they could have different risks during and after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of the additive and logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II in a cohort of high-risk patients with valvular heart disease of predominantly rheumatic aetiology submitted to surgery. Between 1 February and 30 December 2009, 540 consecutive patients scheduled for valvular heart surgery were included in this study. In this set of patients, we examined the performance of the additive, logistic, and EuroSCORE II models for predicting in-hospital mortality. Calibration of each model was assessed by comparing predicted and observed in-hospital mortality and by the goodness of fit of the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test. Discrimination performance of the model was evaluated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The mean age was 56 ± 16 years, 50.6% were female, and the mortality rate was 16.0% (6.0% in elective surgery and 34.0% in emergency/urgency surgery). Mortality rates were estimated according to the additive and logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II at 6.1%, 8.7%, and 4.3%, respectively. The AUC was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.70-0.81) for the additive EuroSCORE, 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81) for the logistic EuroSCORE and 0.81 (95% CI 0.76-0.86) for EuroSCORE II. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics were P = 0.52, P = 0.07, and P = 0.12 for additive, logistic EuroSCORE, and EuroSCORE II. In this cohort of Brazilian patients with valvular heart disease submitted to surgical procedure, the EuroSCORE models had a good discriminatory capacity; however, the calibration was compromised because of an underestimation of the mortality rate.

  5. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...

  6. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  7. Disequilibria Management at the Euro Area Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia Lupu

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The current crisis has shown that an economic integration through a political and monetary approach is wrong. It seems to be more appropriate a social and economic approach, meaning both a betterpreparedness of the new countries joining the euro area and more flexibility of the economic structures of the old members of the euro zone, in order to make the more "harmonious" the way of the monetary area operation. For that purpose, this article has made an analysis of the imbalances management issue in the euro area in order to provide a few theoretical solutions for a better functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU, based on the observation of developments in the euro area countries. This paper enriches theeconomic literature, but also it is relying on the research workings made by the authors in the field of European integration. The originality of this article arises from the extremely topical issue examined and its way of approach, but also from the conclusions outlined.

  8. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  9. Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Eaton, Jonathan; Turnovsky, Stephen J.

    1981-01-01

    A number of macroeconomic models of open economies under flexible exchange rate assume a strong version of perfect capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of important results no longer obtain. First, the exchange rate and interest rate cannot be in steady state unless both the government deficit and current account equal zero, not simply their sum, as would otherwise be the case. Second, even in steady state th...

  10. Short term clinical disease progression in HIV-1 positive patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy : The EuroSIDA risk-score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, A; Ledergerber, B; Zilmer, K

    2007-01-01

    /death in patients taking cART. A score was derived for 4169 patients from EuroSIDA and validated on 5150 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). RESULTS: In EuroSIDA, 658 events occurred during 22 321 person-years of follow-up: an incidence rate of 3.0/100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval...... (CI), 2.7-3.3]. Current levels of viral load, CD4 cell count, CD4 cell slope, anaemia, and body mass index all independently predicted new AIDS/death, as did age, exposure group, a prior AIDS diagnosis, prior antiretroviral treatment and stopping all antiretroviral drugs. The EuroSIDA risk...... in the risk-score was associated with a 2.70 times higher incidence of clinical progression (95% CI, 2.56-2.84) in EuroSIDA and 2.88 (95% CI, 2.75-3.02) in SHCS. CONCLUSIONS: A clinically relevant prognostic score was derived in EuroSIDA and validated within the SHCS, with good agreement. The EuroSIDA risk...

  11. Poweo - 2007 revenue of 363 million euro, up 48%; Poweo - Chiffre d'affaires 2007 de 363 millions euro, en hausse de 48%

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-02-15

    Poweo, the leading independent energy operator in France, presents its key activity indicators for the 4. quarter 2007 and the overall 2007 year (non-audited data): electricity and gas sales, energy and service supplies, revenue, margin and income. The main results are summarized thereafter: 129.8 million euro revenue for the 4. quarter (67.1% of positive growth with respect to 2006); 363.1 million euro revenue for 2007 (48.5% increase with respect to 2006); 91431 active client sites on December 31, 2007 (80300 on December 31, 2006); 13000 new residential client sites registered since the beginning of 2008; more than 3800 MW of fossil fuel power plant projects and 1200 MW of renewable power plant projects (500 MW in offshore wind power) with 30 to 100% estimated rates of success; a 41 MW wind power capacity already in operation. (J.S.)

  12. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    economic management and therefore an important macroeconomic indicator used in assessing the ..... Adeolu, O. A. and Babatunde, W. A. (2005), “Trade and Exchange Rate ... Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Tests for.

  13. Exchange rate policy when the labour market exhibits hysteresis

    OpenAIRE

    Barry, Frank

    1994-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate shocks in a small open economy whose labor market exhibits hysteresis. The model is used to highlight deficiencies in the response of the Irish authorities to exchange rate crisis of 1992/93. A secondary purpose of the paper, though, is to induce those who accept that the Irish labour market is characterised by hysteresis but who reject the argument made here that a more aggressive devaluation should have been pursued, to spell out the labour-m...

  14. The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc; Estimation and Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    John Cady

    2003-01-01

    Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but...

  15. Real Exchange Rate Variability: An Empirical Analysis of the Developing Countries Case

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian Edwards

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential role of monetary and real factors in explaining real exchange rate variability in developing countries. For this purpose two indexes of real effective exchange rate variability that measure short-term and long-term variability were constructed for 30 countries. The results obtained, using a generalized least squares procedures on cross section data, indicate that real exchange rate variability has been affected both by real and monetar...

  16. Is the South African exchange rate volatile? Application of the arch framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thato Julius Mokoma

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study applies the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH model to forecast exchange rate volatility in South Africa for the period 1990Q1 to 2014Q2. The ARCH (1 and ARCH (2 models were constructed using four variables; namely, exchange rate, gross domestic product, inflation and interest rates. Upon addressing the issue of stationarity, the models were fitted and the ARCH (1 model was found to be fit. This model revealed a high volatility of exchange rate compared to the ARCH (2 model. Prior to forecasting, the selected model was subjected to a battery of diagnostics tests and was found to be stable and well specified. The forecasts from the ARCH (1 model proved that in the near future, exchange rate will not be highly volatile though SA will experience depreciation in its currency.

  17. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

    2010-01-01

    The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We...

  18. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

    1993-12-01

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  19. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  20. Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure over Various Return Horizons: Focusing on Major Countries in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Wook Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate exposure, indicating the effect of exchange rate movements on firm values, for a sample of 1,400 firms in seven East Asian countries. The exposure estimates based on various exchange rate variables, return horizons and a control variable are compared. A key result from our analysis is that the long term effect of exchange rate movements on firm values is greater than the short term effect. And we find very similar results from using other exchange rate variables such as the U.S. dollar exchange rate, etc. Second, we add exchange rate volatility as a control variable and find that the extent of exposure is not much changed. Third, we examine the changes in exposure to exchange rate volatility with an increase in return horizon. Consequently the ratio of firms with significant exposures increases with the return horizons. Interestingly, the increase of exposure with the return horizons is faster for exposure to volatility than for exposure to exchange rate itself. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that the so-called "exposure puzzle" may be a matter of the methodology used to measure exposure.

  1. Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation : Evidence from Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Colantone (Italo)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on job reallocation at the industry level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing sector of Belgium, using data for 82 NACE 3-digit industries, over the time span 1996-2002. I find that real exchange rate changes do

  2. Hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates in tritium, hydrogen and deuterium mixed gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uda, Tatsuhiko

    1992-01-01

    Hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates in H 2 +T 2 , D 2 +T 2 and H 2 +D 2 +T 2 mixed gases, as induced by tritium decay and beta radiation, were experimentally measured by laser Raman spectrometry. Initially a glass cell was filled with T 2 gas to a pressure of 30-40 kPa, and an equivalent partial pressure of H 2 and/or D 2 was added. The first-order hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates were 5.54x10 -2 h -1 for H 2 +T 2 mixed gas and 4.76x10 -2 h -1 for D 2 +T 2 . The actual HT producing rate was nearly equivalent to the rate of DT, but the reverse reaction rate of HT was faster than that of DT. The exchange reaction rates between H, D and T showed the isotope effect, HD>HT>DT. The hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates observed were about twenty times larger than ion formation rates by beta radiation. This result suggests that a free radical chain reaction in hydrogen isotopes is occurring. (orig.)

  3. EuroGOV: Engineering a Multilingual Web Corpus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sigurbjörnsson, B.; Kamps, J.; de Rijke, M.

    2005-01-01

    EuroGOV is a multilingual web corpus that was created to serve as the document collection for WebCLEF, the CLEF 2005 web retrieval task. EuroGOV is a collection of web pages crawled from the European Union portal, European Union member state governmental web sites, and Russian government web sites.

  4. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are

  5. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... expectations, one should mostly observe contemporaneous correlations, not one-directional cross-predictability from one variable toward the other. Using three different data sets and various econometric techniques, we do find the contemporaneous correlations as predicted by the financial asset view......-averaged prices in the commodity index data that they use (price averaging induces spurious autocorrelation and predictability) and to features in their test procedures....

  6. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value...

  7. Pass-through of exchange rates and tariffs in Greek-US tobacco trade

    OpenAIRE

    Rezitis, Anthony N.; Brown, A. Blake

    1999-01-01

    The paper examines the extent to which exchange rate and unit tariff changes are passed-through in US import prices of unmanufactured Greek oriental tobacco. The results indicate partial pass-through of exchange rates and tariffs. Exchange rate pass-through is about 0.272 and tariff pass-through about 0.185. One possible reason for the partial pass-through is oligopoly in tobacco exporting. Oligopoly would imply that depreciation of the drachma relative to the US dollar benefits tobacco expor...

  8. A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE FOR THE IMPACT OF SINGAPORE'S EXCHANGE RATE ON COMPETITIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    JANG PING THIA

    2010-01-01

    Services form a larger part of the Singapore economy. However, it is difficult to analyze the exchange rate impact on services due to the lack of price data. Regression of output or export on exchange rate, while highly intuitive, is likely to suffer from the endogeneity problem since Singapore's exchange rate is used as a counter-cyclical policy tool. This results in inconsistent estimates. I propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations by using Hong Kong as a control for Singapore...

  9. An Empirical Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Poverty in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ben. U. Omojimite; Victor E. Oriavwote

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigated the influence of the real exchange rate on poverty within the framework of a dependent economy model. Using data covering 1980 to 2010, the result of a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) showed that the volatility of the real exchange rate has significant influence on the level of poverty in Nigeria. Thus, government policies that targets real exchange rate could play significant role in reducing the level of poverty in Nigeria, particularly if supported by basic ins...

  10. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  11. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  12. Smuggling, non-fundamental uncertainty, and parallel market exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Clay Barnett

    2003-01-01

    We explore a model where smuggling and a parallel currency market arise, owing to government restrictions that prevent agents from legally holding foreign exchange. Despite such restrictions, agents are able to diversify their savings, holding both domestic and parallel foreign cash, basing their portfolio allocation on current and prospective parallel exchange rates. We attribute movements in parallel rates to non-fundamental uncertainty. The model generates equilibria with both positive and...

  13. Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions

    OpenAIRE

    Jonas Stulz

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates the pass-through of exchange rate and import price shocks to different aggregated prices in Switzerland. The baseline analysis is carried out with recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The data set comprises monthly observations, and pass-through effects are quantified by means of impulse response functions. Evidence shows that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is substantial (although incomplete), but only moderate to total consumer ...

  14. A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Schotman (Peter); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a posterior odds analysis of the hypothesis of a unit root in real exchange rates. From a Bayesian viewpoint the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates is a posteriori as probable as a stationary AR(1) process for four out of eight time series investigated. The French

  15. EURO HAWK Project Overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    Briefing charts from presentation on a EURO HAWK project overview; an airborne system with stand-off capability for wide-area intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance meeting European NATO countries' ISR requirements...

  16. Investigation the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Export of Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jamalipour

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agricultural commodity export is a main attribute of developing countries and it is the basic force of development, however, developing countries have faced domestic and international instability in their markets and monetary and fiscal policies and these instabilities create a difficult condition for most of producers and exporters. Volatility in exchange market is one of the most important factor and vital concentrate for international trade especially agricultural commodity export. Because of this concern many studies have been conducted in this filed; (Aristotelous, 2001; Chen, 2009 and Sabuhoi and Piri, 2009 .Many of these studies has stated that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on aggregated agricultural export; however, none of them has been focused on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on exported value of important commodities in long run and short run. In recent years, exchange rate fluctuation has been raised about 6 percent since 2007 to 2010 and it seemed that this phenomenon has a negative impact on agricultural commodity export in Iran. To test this hypothesis exported value of three important commodity (date, orange and grape and exchange rate volatility since 1970 to 2013 have been used. Material and Methods: In order to examine the relation between real exchange rate volatility and export values of date, orange and grapes, first GARCH method has been used to draw out exchange rate volatility; then, Panel unite root test has been used to check the level of integration. Since real exchange rate is not heterogeneous for different cross sections Levi-Lin and Chow unit root test has been used for this variable and IPS test has been applied to export value. Pederoni co-integration test has been used to check the integration between these variables. Finally, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square methods have been used to estimate long run and short run

  17. Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

    2016-01-01

    The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers.

  18. Stationarity test with a direct test for heteroskedasticity in exchange rate forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khin, Aye Aye; Chau, Wong Hong; Seong, Lim Chee; Bin, Raymond Ling Leh; Teng, Kevin Low Lock

    2017-05-01

    Global economic has been decreasing in the recent years, manifested by the greater exchange rates volatility on international commodity market. This study attempts to analyze some prominent exchange rate forecasting models on Malaysian commodity trading: univariate ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models in conjunction with stationarity test on residual diagnosis direct testing of heteroskedasticity. All forecasting models utilized the monthly data from 1990 to 2015. Given a total of 312 observations, the data used to forecast both short-term and long-term exchange rate. The forecasting power statistics suggested that the forecasting performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is more efficient than the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) models. For ex-post forecast, exchange rate was increased from RM 3.50 per USD in January 2015 to RM 4.47 per USD in December 2015 based on the baseline data. For short-term ex-ante forecast, the analysis results indicate a decrease in exchange rate on 2016 June (RM 4.27 per USD) as compared with 2015 December. A more appropriate forecasting method of exchange rate is vital to aid the decision-making process and planning on the sustainable commodities' production in the world economy.

  19. LA ZONE EURO ET LA MONNAIE UNIQUE FACE A L'ELARGISSEMENT DE L'UNION EUROPEENE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Lelart

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Ten countries from central and eastern Europe, as well as Cyprus and Malta, have applied for membership to the European Union. This fifth enlargement, which is the first one since the creation of the eurozone, is expected to have some impact on the institutional framework of the single currency area. This article examines, by stages, the consequences of the enlargement process on the use of the euro as an international currency, on the organisation of the ECB, and on the economic policies in the EU, including monetary and foreign exchange policies. The defined stages start with the current candidate countries (the outs, to the period when they become Member States of the EU (the pre-ins, and finally to the stage when they ultimately join the eurozone (the ins. With this current EU enlargement process, the consequences are nothing less than the beginning of a new era for the euro.

  20. Optimal Foreign Exchange Rate Intervention in Lévy Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masimba Aspinas Mutakaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers an exchange rate problem in Lévy markets, where the Central Bank has to intervene. We assume that, in the absence of control, the exchange rate evolves according to Brownian motion with a jump component. The Central Bank is allowed to intervene in order to keep the exchange rate as close as possible to a prespecified target value. The interventions by the Central Bank are associated with costs. We present the situation as an impulse control problem, where the objective of the bank is to minimize the intervention costs. In particular, the paper extends the model by Huang, 2009, to incorporate a jump component. We formulate and prove an optimal verification theorem for the impulse control. We then propose an impulse control and construct a value function and then verify that they solve the quasivariational inequalities. Our results suggest that if the expected number of jumps is high the Central Bank will intervene more frequently and with large intervention amounts hence the intervention costs will be high.

  1. Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Aron, Janine; Farrell, Greg; Muellbauer, John; Sinclair, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This paper examines exchange rate passthrough to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980-2009. A methodological innovation allows various short-run pass-through estimates to be calculated simply without recourse to a full structural model, yet without neglecting the long-run relationships between prices or the effects of previous import price changes, a...

  2. Exchange rate based stabilization : tales from Europe and Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Ades, Alberto F.; Kiguel, Miguel; Liviatan, Nissan

    1993-01-01

    There is convincing empirical evidence that the cycle for exchange-rate-based disinflation in high-inflation Latin American economies typically begins with expansion and ends in recession - a surprising pattern. The authors explore whether a similar cycle can be observed in exchange-rate-based disinflation in low-inflation economies. They draw on empirical evidence from stabilizaton programs in three European countries in the early 1980s: in Denmark (1982), Ireland (1982), and France (1983). ...

  3. Inflation, Growth and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Hernandez-Verme, Paula

    2002-01-01

    Summary. This is an extended working paper version of the paper that appeared in Economic Theory. It paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements, and credit market frictions may or may not cause credit rationing. Under floating exchange rates, raising domestic inflation can increase production if credit is rationed. However, there exist infla...

  4. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  5. A causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates in india

    OpenAIRE

    Amalendu Bhunia

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates, using data from 2 April 2001 to 31 March 2011 about India. Macroeconomic variables are of crucial importance for determining the effects on stock prices and investment decisions. There are many empirical studies to disclose the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, money supply etc. and stock indexes. However, the direction of causality still remains un...

  6. De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications Are Better Than You Think

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Bleaney; Mo Tian; Lin Yin

    2015-01-01

    Several de facto exchange rate regime classifications have been widely used in empirical research, but they are known to disagree with one another to a disturbing extent. We dissect the algorithms employed and argue that they can be significantly improved. We implement the improvements, and show that there is a far higher agreement rate between the modified classifications. We conclude that the current pessimism about de facto exchange rate regime classification schemes is unwarranted.

  7. Inventories of Asian textile producers, US cotton exports, and the exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durmaz Nazif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

  8. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  9. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  10. Validación de EuroSCORE II en España

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio García-Valentín

    2014-10-01

    Conclusiones: Los pacientes españoles presentan un perfil de riesgo alto. La mortalidad cruda es aceptable, más cercana al valor de EuroSCORE II que de EuroSCORE. Ambas escalas muestran mala calibración, EuroSCORE por sobreestimación y EuroSCORE II por infraestimación. El área bajo la curva ROC muestra buena discriminación para ambos modelos.

  11. Trade Openness And Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel Data Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    César Calderón

    2004-01-01

    A recent strand of the literature, the so-called “New Open Economy Macroeconomics”, argues that nonmonetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility. In this context, it has been suggested the inclusion of shocks to productivity, terms of trade, and government spending, among others. The goal of the present paper is to explain the real exchange rate volatility by positing a structural relationship between volatility and its determinants. To perform our task we col...

  12. Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the cpi. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

  13. Hot Tip: Nominal Exchange Rates and Inflation Indexed Bond Yields

    OpenAIRE

    Richard H. Clarida

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a structural relationship between the nominal exchange rate, national price levels, and observed yields on long maturity inflation - indexed bonds. This relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value of the exchange rate that will prevail in any model or real world economy in which inflation indexed bonds are traded. An advantage of our derivation is that it does not require restrictive assumptions on financial market equilibrium to be operational. We take our t...

  14. Real Effective Exchange Rate Dynamics in Malawi and South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Kisu Simwaka

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates the main determinants of real effective exchange rate in Malawi and South Africa. In our empirical analysis, we conducted unit root and cointegration test in order to determine the time series properties of the data and establish whether there is a long run relationship between real effective exchange rate and explanatory variables. Having ascertained that almost all variiables are integrated of order one and cointegrated, an error correction model is formulated and es...

  15. International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility for emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility, using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis eight Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan) over the period 1993:01-2012:11, and estimating a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model. We find that net equity (bond) inflows drive the exchange rate to a high (low) volatility state. ...

  16. Euro-Multiculturalism and Toleration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2014-01-01

    The underlying concept of multiculturalism in many European discussions is different from that made prominent by the classic cases, e.g. in Canada, that have functioned as paradigm cases which the most prominent theories of multiculturalism have been tailored to fit and justify. “Euro-multicultur......The underlying concept of multiculturalism in many European discussions is different from that made prominent by the classic cases, e.g. in Canada, that have functioned as paradigm cases which the most prominent theories of multiculturalism have been tailored to fit and justify. “Euro......, and b) that it is under-inclusive in the sense that it collapses multiculturalism into standard liberal political theory and fails to explain what is distinctive about multiculturalism. Finally the paper shows that multiculturalism in this sense can involve issues of toleration....

  17. Exchange Market Pressure, Stock Prices, and Commodity Prices East of the Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott W. Hegerty

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - This paper aims to examine connections between the exchange, equity, commodity and commodity markets of a set of Central and Eastern European (CEE economies using monthly time-series data. In particular, we examine whether stock - or commodity - price changes might put pressure on these currencies to depreciate, and whether these pressures are transmitted within the region or from larger neighbors. Design/methodology/approach - This paper creates monthly indices of Ex-change Market Pressure (EMP from 1998 to 2017 using a combination of currency depreciation, reserve losses, and changes in interest-rate differentials for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania. After examining these indices for evidence of currency 'crises', and their components for evidence of changes in currency policy, Vector Autoregressive (VAR methods such as Granger causality and impulse-response functions are used to examine connections between EMP, domestic and foreign stock returns, and changes in commodity prices in the first four countries listed. Findings - While EMP increased in 2008, and the degree of central banks' currency- -market interventions decreased afterward, this paper uncovers key differences among countries. In particular, the Czech Republic is relatively insulated from international transmissions, while Hungary is more susceptible to global spillovers and Poland is exposed to events originating elsewhere in the CEE region. Ukraine shows bidirectional causality between its EMP and stock indices, and finds that pressure on the hryvnia increases if commodity or oil prices decline. Research implications/limitations - This study adds to the relatively limited literature regarding this region, and highlights particular vulnerabilities for both individual countries and specific neighbors; further research is necessary to uncover the channels of transmission using economic modeling. Originality

  18. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly closing returns of All-share index, exchange rates and interest rates ... The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the ... is a prerequisite for attracting investments especially foreign direct investment.

  19. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  20. Fight with energy producers is a fight for the euro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mucka, F.

    2006-01-01

    The battle between the cabinet and companies producing and distributing energy is not about meeting pre-election promises, i.e. decreasing the profits of companies in favour of consumers. The results of negotiations between the cabinet and companies will have a direct impact on Slovakians chances to adopt the common European currency by the planned deadline. Although in the pre-election period the Smer political party did not consider adoption of the euro in 2009 as a priority, the situation changed in the summer. In July, the Prime Minister supported the idea for the first time. His repeated statements supporting the plan to adhere to the original deadline were a part of his goal to stop the fall of the SKK exchange rate. Of all the Maastricht criteria applicable to Slovakia, the inflation criterion seems to be the most difficult one to meet assuming the cabinet keeps its word and government expenditure does not exceed its income by more than is permitted. It is more difficult to keep inflation below the set level than to meet the budget criterion. If Slovakia wants to join the monetary union on 1 January 2009, as of the end of first quarter 2007 inflation will have to be far lower than the current level. (author)

  1. Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizinga, H.P.; Schaling, E.; van der Windt, P.C.

    2007-01-01

    Both in theory and practice, capital controls and dual exchange rate systems can be part of a country's optimal tax policy. We first show how a dual exchange rate system can be interpreted as a tax (or subsidy) on international capital income. We show that a dual exchange rate system, with separate

  2. The Behavior of Interest Rate Differentials Under Shifting Exchange Rate Regimes: The Experience of Chile, Colombia and Israel

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Ibarra

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of the interest rate differential across band and floating exchange rate regimes in Chile, Colombia and Israel, and in a benchmark group composed of Italy, Portugal and Spain. Significant differences in the interest rate-exchange rate link are found between the two groups, irrespective of regime. However, in all countries, except Italy, the interest differential ceased to behave anti-cyclically against output after the adoption of floating, possibly because of ...

  3. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  4. Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores (former transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

  5. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malays...

  6. Impacts of Exchange Rate Regime Choice on Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüstem Yanar

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regime choice on macroeconomic performance after Bretton Woods in emerging market countries. It is studied especially inflation, growth and financial crises. It’s found that for emerging market countries, fixed regimes are associated with lower inflation than floats. On growth effect of exchange rate regime choice is not same all period. Fixed regimes are associated with faster growth but after 1990 fixed regimes brought about slower growth. At the same time, fixed exchange rate regimes are associated with financial fragility after 1990 in emerging markets

  7. Searching for long-range dependence in real effective exchange rate: towards parity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André M. Marques

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract After the widespread adoption of flexible exchange rate regime since 1973 the volatility of the exchange rate has increased, as a consequence of greater trade openness and financial integration. As a result, it has become difficult to find evidence of the purchasing power parity hypothesis (PPP. This study investigates the possibility of a fall in the persistence of the real exchange rate as a consequence of the financial and commercial integration by employing monthly real effective exchange rate dataset provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF. Beginning with an exploratory data analysis in the frequency domain, the fractional coefficient d was estimated employing the bias-reduced estimator on a sample of 20 countries over the period ranging from 1975 to 2011. As the main novelty, this study applies a bias-reduced log-periodogram regression estimator instead of the traditional method proposed by GPH which eliminates the first and higher orders biases by a data-dependent plug-in method for selecting the number of frequencies to minimize asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE. Additionally, this study also estimates a moving window of fifteen years to observe the path of the fractional coefficient in each country. No evidence was found of a statistically significant change in the persistence of the real exchange rate.

  8. The study of RMB exchange rate complex networks based on fluctuation mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Ji-Nan; Zheng, Xu-Zhou; Liu, Xiao-Feng

    2015-10-01

    In the paper, we research on the characteristics of RMB exchange rate time series fluctuation with methods of symbolization and coarse gaining. First, based on fluctuation features of RMB exchange rate, we define the first type of fluctuation mode as one specific foreign currency against RMB in four days' fluctuating situations, and the second type as four different foreign currencies against RMB in one day's fluctuating situation. With the transforming method, we construct the unique-currency and multi-currency complex networks. Further, through analyzing the topological features including out-degree, betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of fluctuation-mode complex networks, we find that the out-degree distribution of both types of fluctuation mode basically follows power-law distributions with exponents between 1 and 2. The further analysis reveals that the out-degree and the clustering coefficient generally obey the approximated negative correlation. With this result, we confirm previous observations showing that the RMB exchange rate exhibits a characteristic of long-range memory. Finally, we analyze the most probable transmission route of fluctuation modes, and provide probability prediction matrix. The transmission route for RMB exchange rate fluctuation modes exhibits the characteristics of partially closed loop, repeat and reversibility, which lays a solid foundation for predicting RMB exchange rate fluctuation patterns with large volume of data.

  9. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  10. Determination of enzyme-substrate dissociation rates by dynamic isotope exchange enhancement experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.C.; Raushel, F.M.

    1986-01-01

    A new method for the determination of dissociation rates of enzyme-substrate complexes has been developed. The rate of exchange of a labeled product back into the substrate is measured during catalysis of the forward reaction when the forward reaction is kept far from equilibrium by the enzymatic removal of the nonexchanging product. The ratio of the exchange rate and the net rate for product formation is then determined at various concentrations of the exchanging product. A plot of this ratio is a diagnostic indication of the kinetic mechanism and the relative rates of product dissociation from the binary and ternary enzyme complexes. This technique has been applied to the reaction catalyzed by bovine liver argininosuccinate lyase. The ratio for the rate of exchange of fumarate into argininosuccinate and the net rate for product formation was found to increase with the concentration of fumarate but to reach a limit of 3.3. The ratio of rates was half-maximal at 36 mM fumarate. The data have been interpreted to indicate the argininosuccinate lyase has a random kinetic mechanism. The calculated lower limit for the rate of release of arginine from the enzyme-fumarate-arginine complex is 0.35 times as fast as the Vmax in the reverse direction. The rate of release of arginine from the enzyme-arginine binary complex is 210 times faster than Vmax in the reverse direction

  11. Intervention analysis of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate | Mosugu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... impact of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate using classical multiple regression model under ... A useful approach is to test the significant change between the long-run mean effect ...

  12. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Mala...

  13. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  14. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post Keynesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  15. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  16. Exchange rate volatility effects on export competitiveness. Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca GHERMAN

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we determine and analyze the impact of the exchange rate variation over the international trade of Romania. We highlighted the sense of the relationship between exchange rate and exports or imports, but the intensity between the variables and the lags that characterize the interdependency between them. In the context of actual great imbalances in the global economy and other risks (financial, political or social that drive to the decrease in aggregate demand on global level, we consider that external competitivity became one of the key variable for the economic growth in Romania like an integrated process in the European economy.

  17. Power and Changing Modes of Governance in the Euro Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Martin B.; Schmidt, Vivien

    2017-01-01

    Which European Union actors are most powerful in the governance of the euro crisis? The euro crisis has reignited the classic debate between intergovernmentalists, who tend to stress the coercive power of dominant member states in the European Council, and supranationalists, who maintain that thr......Which European Union actors are most powerful in the governance of the euro crisis? The euro crisis has reignited the classic debate between intergovernmentalists, who tend to stress the coercive power of dominant member states in the European Council, and supranationalists, who maintain...... that through the use of institutional power, the Commission, and the European Central Bank turned out the “winners” of the crisis. This article argues that euro crisis governance is best understood not just in terms of one form of power but instead as evolving through different constellations of coercive...

  18. The EuroMyositis registry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lilleker, James B; Vencovsky, Jiri; Wang, Guochun

    2018-01-01

    AIMS: The EuroMyositis Registry facilitates collaboration across the idiopathic inflammatory myopathy (IIM) research community. This inaugural report examines pooled Registry data. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of IIM cases from 11 countries was performed. Associations between clinical subtyp...

  19. Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

  20. Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

  1. An Empirical Analysis of China's Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Misalignment of the RMB

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu, Lin

    2012-01-01

    As economic globalization develops in depth, the exchange rate as an important means of macroeconomic control and economic leverage has played a critical role in the economic development in China. Moreover, the real exchange rate can affect the competitiveness of a country’s economy. In fact, a large number of scholars claim that a country should maintain the real exchange rate at its “equilibrium level” in order to keep a steady growth of the economy. Thus, many studies have emphasized on e...

  2. Econometric analysis of exchange rate in Serbia and its influence on agricultural sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically estimate equilibrium exchange rate level of Serbian dinar. In that purpose reduced form equilibrium real exchange rate approach (ERER is used, developed by IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER. The research was made by using ARDL approach in the single-country analysis. It has been started from dynamic model which has described relation between real effective exchange rate and a set of fundamental variables. Bound test has been provided due to determination of the long-term relationship existence between variables. F-statistics has been used for long-term relationship testing between dependent variable and set of indicators. Since assumptions were met, least squares method was used for coefficient estimation. The results have shown constant dinar's overvaluation over medium term.

  3. The impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in BRICS economies

    OpenAIRE

    Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Gnagne, Pascal Xavier

    2017-01-01

    This study intends to analyse the impact of exchange rate risk on equity returns and bond yields as well as the volatility spillover between the foreign exchange, equity and bond markets in the BRICS economies. To reach this objective, a multivariate GARCH-M with BEKK specifications is applied on weekly data obtained from Thomson Reuters DataStream. The findings of the paper show that exchange rate volatility has a positive impact on ten-year bond yields in all BRICS countries except in South...

  4. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  5. THREATS AND BENEFITS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FOR UKRAINE IN TERMS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Glushchenko

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to determine threats and benefits of exchange rate regimes in terms of the integration of Ukraine into the European community. Emphasizing features of the manifestation of currency exchange rate in Ukrainian practice is a precondition for choosing the optimal exchange rate regime for Ukraine, which, in its turn, will provide an opportunity to reduce inflation and implement effective tools of monetary and fiscal policies to promote further economic growth and competitiveness of the country. The uses of free-floating exchange rate and «currency board» regimes have either positive effects for Ukraine or certain threats. Methodology. This research is based on a synthesis of data on the uses of exchange rate regimes in Ukraine as an independent. It is considered angular regimes, which are by far the most suitable for Ukraine in terms of the European vector of its development. Peculiarities of using these regimes are revealed and their major threats to the domestic economy are pointed out. This article analyzes the dynamics of the trade balance of payments of Ukraine, the dynamics of the commodity structure of Ukraine`s exports and imports and the external debt of Ukraine. Results. Taking into account the experience of countries, which were in crisis situations, they show the necessity of the uses of freefloating exchange rate regime and possibilities of «currency board» regime, despite threats that they may have. World experience testifies the implementation of structural reforms, effective monetary policy, fiscal policy and discipline of the government. Thorough preparation of Ukraine’s transition to the «currency board» regime can justify itself in conditions of crisis and provide impetus to Ukrainian economy benefits. The paper defines conditions under which the success of a new model of exchange rate policy will be achieved. Practical implications. The study accents attention on the specifics of the uses of the

  6. 1.6 billion euros for nuclear research through the 'Horizon 2020' program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2014-01-01

    The European Union Council has approved the budget for the future European program for research and innovation called 'Horizon 2020'. A global funding of 77 billion euros has been allocated to 'Horizon 2020' for the 2014 to 2020 years. The share for nuclear sciences will reach 1.6 billion euros and will break down as follows: 316 million euros for fundamental research on fission, 728 million euros for fundamental research on fusion (ITER not included) and 560 million euros for the research projects of the European Joint Research Center (JRC). (A.C.)

  7. Business Cycle Dynamics in the Euro Area: A Factor-SVAR Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Atilim Seymen

    2009-01-01

    The study investigates the business cycle dynamics in the euro area using an empirical framework which comprises common global and euro area shocks as well as allows bilateral spillovers of country-specific shocks across the member economies. Three core questions lie at the heart of the analysis: (i) To what extent are the business cycles of the euro area countries driven by common and spillover shocks? (ii) What are the extent and sources of business cycle heterogeneity in the euro area? (ii...

  8. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  9. Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensoy, Ahmet; Sobaci, Cihat; Sensoy, Sadri; Alali, Fatih

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the strength and direction of information flow between exchange rates and stock prices in several emerging countries by the novel concept of effective transfer entropy (an alternative non-linear causality measure) with symbolic encoding methodology. Analysis shows that before the 2008 crisis, only low level interaction exists between these two variables and exchange rates dominate stock prices in general. During crisis, strong bidirectional interaction arises. In the post-crisis period, the strong interaction continues to exist and in general stock prices dominate exchange rates

  10. Exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Bev

    2003-09-01

    IN MAY this year, I was lucky enough to go to Larissa in northern Greece as part of Hope Exchange 2003, an annual study tour organised by the European Union's hospital committee and administered by the Institute of Healthcare Management (IHM).

  11. Isotopic exchange rate of cobalt ions between hydrous tin(IV) oxide and aqueous solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Yasushi; Yamazaki, Hiromichi; Itami, Akira

    1989-01-01

    The isotopic exchange rate of cobalt ions between hydrous tin(IV) oxide ion exchanger and aqueous solutions was radiochemically measured to obtain fundamental data which are useful for elucidating the ion-exchange kinetics of the material for the transition metal elements. The rate can be understood by considering that the cobalt ions were present in the exchanger as three kinds of species: (A 1 ) Free ions which can diffuse in the exchanger particles, (A 2 ) Weakly bound ions to the exchange sites which exchange rapidly with A 1 , and (B) Covalently fixed ions to the exchange sites which exchange very slowly with A 1 . At low fraction of B, the rate is controlled by the diffusion of A 1 with the effective diffusion coefficient, D eff , the values of which depend on the concentration ratios of A 2 to A 1 . When B predominates over the A species, the concentration ratios of B to A 1 affect greatly D eff . The values of D eff and their activation energy(20 kJ/mol) were also estimated

  12. Studies of the hydrous titanium oxide ion exchanger. 4. Rate of the isotopic exchange of sodium ions between the exchanger in the Na+ form and aqueous solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Yasushi; Yamazaki, Hiromichi; Kasuga, Fuminori

    1995-01-01

    The isotopic exchange rate of Na + between hydrous titanium(IV) oxides, precipitated at pH 6 and 13, in the Na + form and aqueous solution of sodium salt was determined radiochemically. The rate in the exchanger precipitated at pH 6 is controlled by the diffusion of Na + in the exchanger particles (particle diffusion). The diffusion coefficient and its activation energy are 1.9 x 10 -11 m 2 s -1 (pH 12, 5.0degC) and 29 kJ mol -1 (pH 12), respectively. The rate in the exchanger precipitated at pH 13 is also controlled by the particle diffusion. The rate is much slower than that in the other; this can be explained by assuming the existence of two kinds of independently diffusing ions (fast and slow species) in the exchanger. The diffusion coefficients are of the order of 10 -12 and 10 -13 m 2 s -1 for the fast and the slow species, respectively. Their activation energies are 48-60 kJ mol -1 at pH 12. The marked difference in kinetics between two exchanges was interpreted in terms of the difference in the acid-base property and in the microstructure of the matrix. (author)

  13. The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes to Import Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ketelsen, Uwe; Kortelainen, Mika

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the empirical relevance of exchange rate pass-through for Finland, Sweden and Denmark during the period 1980–1994. Further, we attempt to determine if there has been a structural change in the pass-through relationship in the1990s. We find that about half the changes in exchange rates and world prices are passed through to import prices within one year, and three-quarters of such changes are passed through to import prices in two years. Moreover, there are no major di...

  14. Rate equation modelling of the optically pumped spin-exchange source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenger, J.; Rith, K.

    1995-01-01

    Sources for spin polarized hydrogen or deuterium, polarized via spin-exchange of a laser optically pumped alkali metal, can be modelled by rate equations. The rate equations for this type of source, operated either with hydrogen or deuterium, are given explicitly with the intention of providing a useful tool for further source optimization and understanding. Laser optical pumping of alkali metal, spin-exchange collisions of hydrogen or deuterium atoms with each other and with alkali metal atoms are included, as well as depolarization due to flow and wall collisions. (orig.)

  15. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  16. Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gligorić Mirjana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested.

  17. Analysis of the Chinese Exchange Rate Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngrok Cheng

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Asian Financial Crisis now is moving to a relatively stable phase, and at this time, whether Chinese RMB will depreciate is raising the concern of the outside world. If we simply consider economic factors, we will find REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate increased around 10%, where depreciation factors are lurking. However, after Vice Premier Zhu Rongji took the responsibility of economic operation and fixed the fundamental key of developing stably, many foreign departments present good impetus of development. After that, Foreign Exchange Rate Reservation increases and major focus is put on long-term operation for debt structure. On the contrary, If Chinese RMB depreciates dramatically, there will be some uneasiness towards domestic economy and also the burden of paying debt should be increased, people may suffer the loss quite a lot. Especially even we consider the responsibility as the central country in this region and the political & economical factors causing the harmonious atmosphere of Sino-American relationship, it can be predicted that Chinese RMB cannot depreciate dramatically within 1-2 years.

  18. Quantification of protein backbone hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates by solid state NMR spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez del Amo, Juan-Miguel; Fink, Uwe; Reif, Bernd

    2010-01-01

    We present the quantification of backbone amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates (HDX) for immobilized proteins. The experiments make use of the deuterium isotope effect on the amide nitrogen chemical shift, as well as on proton dilution by deuteration. We find that backbone amides in the microcrystalline α-spectrin SH3 domain exchange rather slowly with the solvent (with exchange rates negligible within the individual 15 N-T 1 timescales). We observed chemical exchange for 6 residues with HDX exchange rates in the range from 0.2 to 5 s -1 . Backbone amide 15 N longitudinal relaxation times that we determined previously are not significantly affected for most residues, yielding no systematic artifacts upon quantification of backbone dynamics (Chevelkov et al. 2008b). Significant exchange was observed for the backbone amides of R21, S36 and K60, as well as for the sidechain amides of N38, N35 and for W41ε. These residues could not be fit in our previous motional analysis, demonstrating that amide proton chemical exchange needs to be considered in the analysis of protein dynamics in the solid-state, in case D 2 O is employed as a solvent for sample preparation. Due to the intrinsically long 15 N relaxation times in the solid-state, the approach proposed here can expand the range of accessible HDX rates in the intermediate regime that is not accessible so far with exchange quench and MEXICO type experiments.

  19. Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Gruszczyński

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively. Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously. Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.

  20. Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

    2015-02-01

    This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.