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Sample records for eta regional forecast

  1. Avaliação do modelo regional eta utilizando as análises do CPTEC e NCEP Evaluation of the eta regional model using the analysis of CPTEC and NCEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rildo Gonçalves de Moura

    2010-03-01

    evaluated the forecasts of precipitation and mean sea level pressure for the period up to 120 hours, using the mean error (ME and the root mean squared error (RMSE from December 2007 to February 2008. The used model was the ETA (40 km, with two separate entries of data, the analysis of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS (ETA-I and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP (ETA-II. The results showed, for both tests, a trend of overestimation (positive values of average error of precipitation on the Northern Region of Brazil, mainly for the 24 hours forecast. Considering the mean sea level pressure (MSLP, it was clearly seen that the ETA-I, whose values of pressure are very close to observed, provides better results compared to the ETA-II, especially during the first hours of integration.

  2. A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J.

    2017-01-01

    We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as

  3. Short-range ensemble predictions based on convection perturbations in the Eta Model for the Serra do Mar region in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, J. F. F.; Chou, S. C.; Gomes, J. L.

    2009-04-01

    The Southeast Brazil, in the coastal and mountain region called Serra do Mar, between Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, is subject to frequent events of landslides and floods. The Eta Model has been producing good quality forecasts over South America at about 40-km horizontal resolution. For that type of hazards, however, more detailed and probabilistic information on the risks should be provided with the forecasts. Thus, a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) based on the Eta Model is being constructed. Ensemble members derived from perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions did not provide enough spread for the forecasts. Members with model physics perturbation are being included and tested. The objective of this work is to construct more members for the Eta SREPS by adding physics perturbed members. The Eta Model is configured at 10-km resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. The domain covered is most of Southeast Brazil, centered over the Serra do Mar region. The constructed members comprise variations of the cumulus parameterization Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes. Three members were constructed from the BMJ scheme by varying the deficit of saturation pressure profile over land and sea, and 2 members of the KF scheme were included using the standard KF and a momentum flux added to KF scheme version. One of the runs with BMJ scheme is the control run as it was used for the initial condition perturbation SREPS. The forecasts were tested for 6 cases of South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) events. The SACZ is a common summer season feature of Southern Hemisphere that causes persistent rain for a few days over the Southeast Brazil and it frequently organizes over Serra do Mar region. These events are particularly interesting because of the persistent rains that can accumulate large amounts and cause generalized landslides and death. With respect to precipitation, the KF scheme versions have shown to be able to reach the

  4. Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

    2006-10-01

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.

  5. Searches for B0 Decays to eta K0, eta eta,eta' eta', eta phi, and eta'phi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2006-07-31

    The authors search for B{sup 0} meson decays into two-body combinations of K{sup 0}, {eta}, {eta}', and {phi} mesons in 324 million B{bar B} pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e{sup +}e{sup -} collider at SLAC. They measure the following branching fractions (upper limits at 90% confidence level) in units of 10{sup -6}: {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K{sup 0}) = 1.8{sub -0.6}{sup +0.7} {+-} 0.1 (< 2.9), {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{eta}) = 1.1{sub -0.4}{sup +0.5} {+-} 0.1(< 1.8), {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{phi}) = 0.1 {+-} 0.2 {+-} 0.1(< 0.6), {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{phi}) = 0.2{sub -0.3}{sup +0.4} {+-} 0.1(< 1.0), and {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{eta}') = 1.0{sub -0.6}{sup +0.8} {+-} 0.1 (< 2.4), where the first error is statistical and the second systematic.

  6. Magnetic eta index and the ability to forecast sporadic E layer appearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak-Jankowska, Beata; Stanislawska, Iwona; Pozoga, Mariusz; Tomasik, Lukasz; Ernst, Tomasz

    2012-07-01

    We analysed the correlation of the changes of the magnetic vertical component with the ionospheric deviations from monthly median of the E layer characteristics. Promising results indicate that the eta parameter can be used to predict sporadic E layer during magnetically quiet days. Our previous work concern the data from only one year - 2004. During the descending phase of solar cycle in 2004 there was not numerous amount of quiet days. We extend our research to other years starting from 1996 and focusing on 2007 - 2009, years of the prolonged solar minimum. The analysis shows that under magnetically quiet circumstances the magnetic index eta indicates large magnetic disturbance, especially in vertical component when other magnetic indices inform about quiet magnetic conditions. The results indicate that the increase of the magnetic eta index (the ratio of the variations of vertical component of the external magnetic field to the horizontal component) is associated with the emergence of sporadic E layer or with increase of foEs critical frequency of sporadic E layer. The appearance of sporadic E layer followed 1-2 h after growth of magnetic index eta. An important conclusion is that the analysis of the hourly ionospheric data does not give 100% correlation between the increase of eta and the emergence of Es layer, however, studies of dense measurement data show that the correlation is almost 100%. An advantage of the eta index is the fact that after eliminating the effect of currents induced within the Earth, eta index bring independent and meaningful information on the system of current in the ionosphere. Hence, the eta index could be an important element of the ionosphere monitoring and can be used to predict such local phenomenon like the appearance of the sporadic E layer.

  7. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  8. Radiative decay of the eta-, eta'-mesons in the nonlocal quark model. [eta(eta'). --> gamma gamma. ; eta. -->. pi. /sup +/. pi. /sup -/. gamma. ; eta. -->. pi. /sup 0/2. gamma. ; eta'. -->. rho/sup 0/. gamma. ; eta'. -->. omega gamma. ;. pi. /sup 0/. -->. gamma. e/sup +/e/sup -/; eta(eta'). -->. gamma mu. /sup +/. mu. /sup -/

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efimov, G V; Ivanov, M A; Nogovitsyn, E A [Joint Inst. for Nuclear Research, Dubna (USSR)

    1981-07-01

    P..--> gamma gamma.. (P=..pi../sup 0/, eta, eta'), eta..--> pi../sup +/..pi../sup -/..gamma.., eta..--> pi../sup 0/..gamma gamma.., eta/sup 1/..-->..V..gamma.. (V=rho/sup 0/, ..omega..), p..--> gamma..l/sup +/l/sup -/ (p=..pi../sup 0/, eta, eta') radiation decays are studied for testing the applicability of the non-local quark model for description of the experimental data. The Feynman diagrams of these decays are presented, values of the widths of the Veta..--> gamma gamma.., eta..--> pi../sup +/..pi../sup -/..gamma.., eta..--> pi../sup 0/..gamma gamma.., eta'..--> gamma gamma.., eta'..-->..rho/sup 0/..gamma.., eta'..--> omega gamma.. decays are calculated and given in the form of a table. Calculations are carried out for two values of the eta eta'-crossing angle: THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. Values of invariant amplitudes of these decays are determined for ..pi../sup 0/..--> gamma..e/sup +/e/sup -/, eta..--> gamma mu../sup +/..mu../sup -/, eta'..--> gamma mu../sup +/..mu../sup -/ decays at THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. The best agreement with the experimental data is noted to take place at THETA=-11 deg, the determined width of the eta..--> pi../sup 0/..gamma gamma.. decays is underestimated as compared with the experimental one.

  9. Physics with ETA mesons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Lon-chang.

    1989-01-01

    Since the advent of pion factories, an impressive amount of information about the nuclear dynamics of the Δ(1232) pion- nucleon resonance has been obtained. The study of this isospin-3/2 resonance has greatly benefited from the fact that π/sup /minus//n and π + p systems are pure I = 3/2 states, which couple only to the Δ in the resonance region. Such isospin selectivity of the pion does not exist, however, for the I = 1/2 N* resonances because it is not possible to form a pure I = 1/2 state with a pion and a nucleon. Eta mesons have zero isospin. Consequently, the /eta/N systems are in a pure I = 1/2 state, and /eta/ can be used to tag those N* resonances to which it strongly couples. We will briefly review the πN interaction from the threshold region to c.m. energy √s ≅1600 MeV. We shall see how improved πN data can help the study of πN interactions. I shall discuss what new information about the hadronic interaction can be learned from the study of eta production in pp collisions. The behavior of eta meson in nuclei will be discussed. The interesting question of the quark structure of /eta/(549) and /eta/'(958) will also be discussed within the framework of a simple model. 19 refs., 13 figs

  10. 20 CFR 658.420 - Establishment of JS complaint system at the ETA regional office.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Establishment of JS complaint system at the... Complaint System Federal Js Complaint System § 658.420 Establishment of JS complaint system at the ETA regional office. (a) Each Regional Administrator shall establish and maintain a JS complaint system at the...

  11. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

  12. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  13. Searches for Charmless Decays B0 --> eta omega, B0 --> eta K0, B+ --> eta rho+, and B+ --> eta' pi+

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B

    2004-08-13

    The authors report results for measurements of the decay branching fractions of B{sup 0} to the charmless final states {eta}{omega} and {eta}K{sup 0}, and of B{sup +} to {eta}{rho}{sup +} and {eta}'{pi}{sup +}. None of these decays have been observed definitively. Measurements of the related decays B{sup +} --> {eta}K{sup +}, B{sup +} --> {eta}{pi}{sup +}, and B --> {eta}'K were published recently. Charmless decays with kaons are usually expected to be dominated by b --> s loop (''penguin'') transitions, while b --> u tree transitions are typically larger for the decays with pions and {rho} mesons. However the B --> {eta}K decays are especially interesting since they are suppressed relative to the abundant B --> {eta}'K decays due to destructive interference between two penguin amplitudes. The CKM-suppressed b --> u amplitudes may interfere significantly with penguin amplitudes, possibly leading to large direct CP violation in B{sup +} --> {eta}{rho}{sup +} and B{sup +} --> {eta}'{pi}{sup +}; numerical estimates are available in a few cases. The authors search for such direct CP violation by measuring the charge asymmetry A{sub ch} {equivalent_to} ({Gamma}{sup -} - {Gamma}{sup +})/({Gamma}{sup -} + {Gamma}{sup +}) in the rates {Gamma}{sup {+-}} = {Gamma}(B{sup {+-}} --> f{sup {+-}}), for each observed charged final state f{sup {+-}}. Charmless B decays are becoming useful to test the accuracy of theoretical predictions. Phenomenological fits to the branching fractions and charge asymmetries can be used to understand the importance of tree and penguin contributions and may provide sensitivity to the CKM angle {gamma}.

  14. A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

    2017-01-01

    We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

  15. Beam test results of CMS RPCs at high eta region under high-radiation environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S.; Ahn, S.H.; Bahk, S.Y.; Hong, B.; Hong, S.J.; Kang, D.H.; Kang, T.I.; Kim, T.J.; Kim, Y.J.; Kim, Y.U.; Koo, D.G.; Lee, H.W.; Lee, K.S.; Lee, S.J.; Lim, J.K.; Moon, D.H.; Nam, S.K.; Oh, J.K.; Park, W.J.; Rhee, J.T.; Ryu, M.S.; Shim, H.H.; Sim, K.S.

    2004-01-01

    The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) forward resistivity plate chambers (RPCs) at the high eta region must be operated in presence of a radiation-induced rate as high as 1kHz/cm2. It is still unknown if the RPCs coated with linseed oil can be operated under such a high-radiation environment over the lifetime of CMS. Non-oiled RPCs may be one of the options since phenolic or melamine-coated bakelite is chemically stabler than linseed oil. We have constructed oiled and non-oiled RPCs at the high eta region of CMS using phenolic bakelite and tested them in the Gamma Irradiation Facility at CERN. While both RPCs show the same characteristics in the efficiency and the strip multiplicity, the non-oiled RPC generates an intrinsic noise rate of 50Hz/cm2, compared to only 5Hz/cm2 for the oiled RPC, both at 10.0kV which is about 100V above the 95% knee of the efficiency curve

  16. Beam test results of CMS RPCs at high eta region under high-radiation environment

    CERN Document Server

    Park, S; Bahk, S Y; Hong, B; Hong, S J; Kang, D H; Kang, T I; Kim, T J; Kim, Y J; Kim, Y U; Koo, D G; Lee, H W; Lee, K S; Lee, S J; Lim, J K; Moon, D H; Nam, S K; Oh, J K; Park, W J; Rhee, J T; Ryu, M S; Shim, H H; Sim, K S

    2004-01-01

    The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) forward resistivity plate chambers (RPCs) at the high eta region must be operated in presence of a radiation-induced rate as high as 1 kHz/cm**2. It is still unknown if the RPCs coated with linseed oil can be operated under such a high- radiation environment over the lifetime of CMS. Non-oiled RPCs may be one of the options since phenolic or melamine-coated bakelite is chemically stabler than linseed oil. We have constructed oiled and non-oiled RPCs at the high eta region of CMS using phenolic bakelite and tested them in the Gamma Irradiation Facility at CERN. While both RPCs show the same characteristics in the efficiency and the strip multiplicity, the non-oiled RPC generates an intrinsic noise rate of 50 Hz/cm**2, compared to only 5 Hz/cm**2 for the oiled RPC, both at 10.0kV which is about 100 V above the 95% knee of the efficiency curve.

  17. B meson decays to charmless meson pairs containing eta or eta'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, : B.

    2009-12-14

    The authors present updated measurements of the branching fractions for B{sup 0} meson decays to {eta}K{sup 0}, {eta}{eta}, {eta}{phi}, {eta}{omega}, {eta}{prime}K{sup 0}, {eta}{prime}{eta}{prime}, {eta}{prime}, {phi}, and {eta}{prime}{omega} and branching fractions and CP-violating charge asymmetries for B{sup +} decays to {eta}{pi}{sup +}, {eta}K{sup +}, {eta}{prime}{pi}{sup +}, and {eta}{prime} K{sup +}. The data represent the full dataset of 467 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e{sup +}e{sup -} collider at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Besides large signals for the four charged B decays modes and for B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sup 0}, they find evidence for three B{sup 0} decays modes at greater than 3.0{sigma} significance. They find {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K{sup 0}) = (1.15{sub -0.38}{sup +0.43} {+-} 0.09) x 10{sup -6}, {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{omega}) = (0.94{sub -0.30}{sup +0.35} {+-} 0.09) x 10{sup -6}, and {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}{omega}) = (1.01{sub -0.38}{sup +0.46} {+-} 0.09) x 10{sup -6}, where the first (second) uncertainty is statistical (systematic). For the B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K{sup +} decay mode, they measure the charge asymmetry {Alpha}{sub ch} (B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K{sup +}) = -0.36 {+-} 0.11 {+-} 0.03.

  18. Radiative decays of eta-eta'-mesons in quark nonlocal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efimov, G.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Nogovitsyn, E.A.

    1980-01-01

    Leading radiative decays of eta, eta'-mesons (P→γγ, P=π 0 ,eta,eta', eta→π + π - γ, eta→π 0 γγ, eta'→Vsub(γ)(V=rho 0 , ω)) are decribed within a quark nonlocal model. Decay widths and electromagnetic form factors for the P→γl + l - decay are calculated. Calculations are performed for two mixing angles (THETA=-11 deg and THETA=-18 deg). For the case when THETA=-11 deg good agreement with experiment is achieved

  19. Search for B Meson Decays to eta' eta' K

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2006-05-05

    The authors describe searches for decays of B mesons to the charmless final states {eta}'{eta}'K. The data consist of 228 million B{bar B} pairs produced in e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation, collected with the BABAR detector at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The 90% confidence level upper limits for the branching fractions are {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{eta}'K{sup 0}) < 31 x 10{sup -6} and {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} {eta}'{eta}'K{sup +}) < 25 x 10{sup -6}.

  20. A Search for EGRET/Radio Pulsars in the ETA Carina Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Our analysis of EGRET data for the radio pulsar PSR B1046-58, which lies it the Eta Carina region of the Galaxy, was highly successful, resulting in the discovery of strong evidence for gamma-ray pulsations from this source. This work was published in the Astrophysical Journal. Additional support for the association was published in a companion paper in which an analysis of the X-ray counterpart to PSR B1046-58 was done, and we showed that it was the only possible counterpart to the gamma ray source within the EGRET error box.

  1. Radiative decay of the eta-, eta'-mesons in the nonlocal quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efimov, G.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Nogovitsyn, E.A.

    1981-01-01

    P→γγ (P=π 0 , eta, eta'), eta→π + π - γ, eta→π 0 γγ, eta 1 →Vγ (V=rho 0 , ω), p→γl + l - (p=π 0 , eta, eta') radiation decays are studied for testing the applicability of the non-local quark model for description of the experimental data. The Feynman diagrams of these decays are presented, values of the widths of the Veta→γγ, eta→π + π - γ, eta→π 0 γγ, eta'→γγ, eta'→rho 0 γ, eta'→ωγ decays are calculated and given in the form of a table. Calculations are carried out for two values of the eta eta'-crossing angle: THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. Values of invariant amplitudes of these decays are determined for π 0 →γe + e - , eta→γμ + μ - , eta'→γμ + μ - decays at THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. The best agreement with the experimental data is noted to take place at THETA=-11 deg, the determined width of the eta→π 0 γγ decays is underestimated as compared with the experimental one [ru

  2. Hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems in forecasting regional electricity loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pai, Ping-Feng [Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 1 University Road, Puli, Nantou 545, Taiwan (China)

    2006-09-15

    Because of the privatization of electricity in many countries, load forecasting has become one of the most crucial issues in the planning and operations of electric utilities. In addition, accurate regional load forecasting can provide the transmission and distribution operators with more information. The hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system was originally designed to solve control and pattern recognition problems. The main objective of this investigation is to develop a hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system for time series forecasting (HEFST) and apply the proposed model to forecast regional electricity loads in Taiwan. Additionally, a scaled conjugate gradient learning method is employed in the supervised learning phase of the HEFST model. Subsequently, numerical data taken from the existing literature is used to demonstrate the forecasting performance of the HEFST model. Simulation results reveal that the proposed model has better forecasting performance than the artificial neural network model and the regression model. Thus, the HEFST model is a valid and promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

  3. Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

  4. Phylogenetic relations of humans and African apes from DNA sequences in the Psi eta-globin region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyamoto, M.M.; Slightom, J.L.; Goodman, M.

    1987-10-16

    Sequences from the upstream and downstream flanking DNA regions of the Psi eta-globin locus in Pan troglodytes (common chimpanzee), Gorilla gorilla (gorilla), and Pongo pygmaeus (orangutan, the closest living relative to Homo, Pan, and Gorilla) provided further data for evaluating the phylogenetic relations of humans and African apes. These newly sequenced orthologs (an additional 4.9 kilobase pairs (kbp) for each species) were combined with published Psi eta-gene sequences and then compared to the same orthologous stretch (a continuous 7.1-kbp region) available for humans. Phylogenetic analysis of these nucleotide sequences by the parsimony method indicated (i) that human and chimpanzee are more closely related to each other than either is to gorilla and (ii) that the slowdown in the rate of sequence evolution evident in higher primates is especially pronounced in humans. These results indicate that features unique to African apes (but not to humans) are primitive and that even local molecular clocks should be applied with caution.

  5. Measurement of Branching Fractions and Charge Asymmetries in B Meson Decays to eta(prime)K*, eta(prime)rho, and eta pi

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, W

    2003-01-01

    The present preliminary measurements of branching fractions and charge asymmetries for the B meson decays B -> eta(prime) K*, B -> eta(prime)rho, and B sup + -> eta(prime)pi sup +. The data were recorded with the BABAR detector at PEP-II and correspond to 89 x 10 sup 6 B(bar B) pairs produced in e sup + e sup - annihilation through the UPSILON(4S) resonance. They find the branching fractions BETA(B sup 0 -> eta K* sup 0) = (19.0 sub - sub 2 sub . sub 1 sup + sup 2 sup . sup 2 +- 1.3) x 10 sup - sup 6 , BETA(B sup + -> eta K* sup +) = (25.7 sub - sub 3 sub . sub 6 sup + sup 3 sup . sup 8 +- 1.8) x 10 sup - sup 6 with 90% confidence, and BETA(B sup + -> eta(prime)pi sup +) = (2.8 sub - sub 1 sub . sub 0 sup + sup 1 sup . sup 3 +- 0.3) x 10 sup - sup 6 ( eta(prime)K* sup 0) eta(prime)K* sup +) < 12 x 10 sup - sup 6. The time-integrated charge asymmetries are A sub c sub h (eta K* sup 0) = +0.03 +- 0.11 +- 0.02, A sub c sub h (eta K* sup +) = +0.15 +- 0.14 +- 0.02, and A sub c sub h (eta rho sup +) = +0.06 +-...

  6. Study of $\\eta-\\eta'$ mixing from measurement of $B^0_{(s)}\\to J/\\psi\\eta^{(')}$ decay rates

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Bjørnstad, Pål Marius; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Brown, Henry; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casanova Mohr, Raimon; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew Christopher; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gastaldi, Ugo; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Geraci, Angelo; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jaton, Pierre; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leo, Sabato; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lowdon, Peter; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martín Sánchez, Alexandra; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Moggi, Niccolò; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Oggero, Serena; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Orlandea, Marius; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Arantza; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Perrin-Terrin, Mathieu; Pescatore, Luca; Pesen, Erhan; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Polikarpov, Sergey; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skillicorn, Ian; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilschut, Hans; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang

    2015-01-01

    A study of $B^0$and $B^0_s$ meson decays into $J/\\psi\\eta$ and $J/\\psi\\eta^{\\prime}$ final states is performed using a data set of proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment and corresponding to 3.0fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity. The decay $B^0 \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta^{\\prime}$ is observed for the first time. The following ratios of branching fractions are measured: $ \\frac{\\mathcal{B}(B^0 \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta^{\\prime})}{\\mathcal{B}(B^0_s \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta^{\\prime})} = (2.28\\pm0.65\\,(stat)\\,\\pm0.10\\,(syst)\\,\\pm0.13\\,(f_{s}/f_{d}))\\times10^{-2},$ $ \\frac{\\mathcal{B}(B^0 \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta)}{\\mathcal{B}(B^0_s \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta)} = (1.85\\pm0.61\\,(stat)\\,\\pm0.09\\,(syst)\\,\\pm0.11\\,(f_{s}/f_{d}))\\times10^{-2},$ where the third uncertainty is related to the present knowledge of $f_{s}/f_{d}$, the ratio between the probabilities for a $b$ quark to form a $B^0_s$ or $B^0$ meson. The branching fraction ratios are used to determine the para...

  7. Two-Body B Meson Decays to {eta} and {eta}{sup '} : Observation of B {yields} {eta}K{sup *}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richichi, S. J. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Severini, H. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Skubic, P. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Undrus, A. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Chen, S. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Fast, J. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Hinson, J. W. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Lee, J. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Menon, N. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Miller, D. H. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States)] (and others)

    2000-07-17

    In a sample of 19x10{sup 6} produced B mesons, we have observed the decays B{yields}{eta}K{sup *} and improved our previous measurements of B{yields}{eta}{sup '}K . The branching fractions we measure for these decay modes are B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}K{sup *+}) =(26.4{sup +9.6}{sub -8.2}{+-}3.3)x 10{sup -6} , B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}K{sup *0}) =(13.8{sup +5.5}{sub -4.6}{+-}1.6)x 10{sup -6} , B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}{sup '} K{sup +})=(80{sup +10}{sub -9}{+-} 7)x10{sup -6} , and B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}{sup '} K{sup 0})=(89{sup +18}{sub -16}{+-} 9)x10{sup -6} . We have searched with comparable sensitivity for related decays and report upper limits for these branching fractions. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society.

  8. Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

    2003-01-01

    Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes

  9. Study of the radiative decay J/psi → γetaπ+π-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.J.; Blaylock, G.T.; Bolton, T.

    1987-02-01

    The Mark III collaboration has performed a high statistics study of the reaction J/psi → γetaπ + π - , with two different final states of the eta, eta → γγ and eta → π 0 π + π - . Both modes have a broad structure from 1.2 to 1.9 GeV/c 2 and two structures, which decay via δ +- π -+ , δ +- → etaπ +- , are identified at 1.28 and 1.39 GeV/c 2 . No signal is observed in the iota(1440) signal region

  10. A large mixing effect on eta,eta' and iota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawai, E.

    1983-01-01

    We quantitatively investigate a possible large mixing effect on eta(549), eta'(958) and iota(1440) in a phenomenological way, taking both SU(3) symmetry breaking and gluon intervention into due account. (orig.)

  11. Decay J/π → 3γ and a search for the eta/sub c/

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partridge, R.; Peck, C.; Porter, F.; Kollman, W.; Richardson, M.; Strauch, K.; Wacker, K.; Aschman, D.; Burnett, T.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Coyne, D.; Sadrozinski, H.; Bloom, E.; Bulos, F.; Chestnut, R.; Gaiser, J.; Godfrey, G.; Kiesling, C.; Oreglia, M.; Hofstadter, R.; Kirkbride, I.; Kolanoski, H.; Liberman, A.; O'Reilly, J.; Tompkins, J.

    1980-01-01

    The decay J/psi into 3γ final states has been studied. No evidence is found for the existence of the X(2.83) or any heavy narrow state (e.g., the eta/sub c/) decaying into two photons. Upper limits are given on the branching ratio J/psi → eta/sub c/,eta/sub c/ → 2γ for eta/sub c/ masses in the 2.7--3.0-GeV region. In addition, the branching ratios J/psi → γeta,γeta' are measured. It is found that the eta' branching ratio is higher than previously reported

  12. Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, L.-C.; Pan, M.-C.

    2008-01-01

    Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads

  13. Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Li-Chih [Department of Marketing Management, Central Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 11, Pu-tzu Lane, Peitun, Taichung City 406 (China); Pan, Mei-Chiu [Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Nanhua University, 32, Chung Keng Li, Dalin, Chiayi 622 (China)

    2008-02-15

    Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

  14. Tests of high-resolution simulations over a region of complex terrain in Southeast coast of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Sin Chan; Luís Gomes, Jorge; Ristic, Ivan; Mesinger, Fedor; Sueiro, Gustavo; Andrade, Diego; Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The Eta Model is used operationally by INPE at the Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC) to produce weather forecasts over South America since 1997. The model has gone through upgrades along these years. In order to prepare the model for operational higher resolution forecasts, the model is configured and tested over a region of complex topography located near the coast of Southeast Brazil. The model domain includes the two Brazilians cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, urban areas, preserved tropical forest, pasture fields, and complex terrain where it can rise from sea level up to about 1000 m. Accurate near-surface wind direction and magnitude are needed for the power plant emergency plan. Besides, the region suffers from frequent events of floods and landslides, therefore accurate local forecasts are required for disaster warnings. The objective of this work is to carry out a series of numerical experiments to test and evaluate high resolution simulations in this complex area. Verification of model runs uses observations taken from the nuclear power plant and higher resolution reanalyses data. The runs were tested in a period when flow was predominately forced by local conditions and in a period forced by frontal passage. The Eta Model was configured initially with 2-km horizontal resolution and 50 layers. The Eta-2km is a second nesting, it is driven by Eta-15km, which in its turn is driven by Era-Interim reanalyses. The series of experiments consists of replacing surface layer stability function, adjusting cloud microphysics scheme parameters, further increasing vertical and horizontal resolutions. By replacing the stability function for the stable conditions substantially increased the katabatic winds and verified better against the tower wind data. Precipitation produced by the model was excessive in the region. Increasing vertical resolution to 60 layers caused a further increase in precipitation production. This excessive

  15. The analysis of B-d ->(eta, eta ')l(+)l(-) decays in the standard model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erkol, G; Turan, G

    We study the differential branching ratio, the branching ratio and the CP-violating asymmetry for the exclusive B-d --> (eta,eta')l(+)l(-) decays in the standard model. We deduce the B-d --> (eta,eta') form factors from the form factors of B --> pi available in the literature, by using the SU(3)(F)

  16. The ETA10 supercomputer system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swanson, C.D.

    1987-01-01

    The ETA Systems, Inc. ETA 10 is a next-generation supercomputer featuring multiprocessing, a large hierarchical memory system, high performance input/output, and network support for both batch and interactive processing. Advanced technology used in the ETA 10 includes liquid nitrogen cooled CMOS logic with 20,000 gates per chip, a single printed circuit board for each CPU, and high density static and dynamics MOS memory chips. Software for the ETA 10 includes an underlying kernel that supports multiple user environments, a new ETA FORTRAN compiler with an advanced automatic vectorizer, a multitasking library and debugging tools. Possible developments for future supercomputers from ETA Systems are discussed. (orig.)

  17. Understanding eta' → etaππ and allied processes despite Adler zeros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhanam, I.; Chakrabarty, S.; Mitra, A.N.

    1979-01-01

    With use of the (hitherto obscure) negative-parity meson matrix N/sub +/ of partial symmetry, an eta' → etaππ amplitude, explicitly satisfying the Adler conditions, has been constructed within the relativistic quark pair-creation model without any adjustable parameters. The model yields a total eta' width of 388 keV and etaππ, rho 0 γ, and γγ branching ratios of 68.0%, 29.9%, and 1.88%, all in excellent agreement with data. The same model gives the π-π scattering lengths as m/sub π/a 0 =0.19, m/sub π/a 2 =-0.08

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  1. Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancang Zhuang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

  2. Measurements of the branching fractions of the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D-0 -> omega eta, eta(()'())pi(0) and eta(()'())eta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M.N.; Ahmed, S.; Albrecht, M.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Haddadi, Z.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Löhner, H.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Tiemens, M.

    2018-01-01

    By analyzing a data sample of 2.93 fb(-1) collected at root s = 3.773 GeV with the BESIII detector operated at the BEPCII storage rings, we measure the branching fractions B(D-0 -> omega eta) = (2.15 +/- 0.17(stat) +/- 0.15(sys)) x 10(-3), B(D-0 ->eta pi(0)) = (0.58 +/- 0.05(stat) +/- 0.05(sys)) x

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  4. Some reasoning on the improvement of the ETAS modeling at the occurrence of the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Lombardi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an application of the ETAS model to the first 20 days of the 2016 central Italy sequence. Despite of the provisional nature of data, the model is able to describe the occurrence rate, but for the first hours after the mainshock occurrence. A sensitivity analysis of the model to two uncertainty sources, the model parameters and the occurrence history, shows that the second has a main role in controlling the performance of the ETAS model, more than the uncertainty on parameters. Previous results, together with the clear inability of ETAS to forecast the occurrence of a sequence before its starting time, give important suggestions about possible improvements. Here, a very preliminary attempt in this sense is presented.

  5. Observation of the $B^0_s\\to\\eta'\\eta'$ decay

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2075808; Adeva, Bernardo; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Bel, Lennaert; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casanova Mohr, Raimon; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cavallero, Giovanni; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Dey, Biplab; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferrari, Fabio; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gastaldi, Ugo; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Geraci, Angelo; Gerick, David; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, Vladimir; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Kenzie, Matthew; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lowdon, Peter; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Manning, Peter Michael; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Maurin, Brice; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Mitzel, Dominik Stefan; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Osorio Rodrigues, Bruno; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Aranzazu; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Pescatore, Luca; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Quagliani, Renato; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skillicorn, Ian; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Sterpka, Christopher Francis; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Trabelsi, Karim; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viana Barbosa, Joao Vitor; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang

    2015-01-01

    The first observation of the $B^0_s\\to\\eta'\\eta'$ decay is reported. The study is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions corresponding to $3.0$ ${\\rm fb^{-1}}$ of integrated luminosity collected with the LHCb detector. The significance of the signal is $6.4$ standard deviations. The branching fraction is measured to be $[3.31 \\pm 0.64\\,{\\rm (stat)} \\pm 0.28\\,{\\rm (syst)} \\pm 0.12\\,{\\rm (norm)}]\\times10^{-5}$, where the third uncertainty comes from the $B^{\\pm}\\to\\eta' K^{\\pm}$ branching fraction that is used as a normalisation. In addition, the charge asymmetries of $B^{\\pm}\\to\\eta' K^{\\pm}$ and $B^{\\pm}\\to\\phi K^{\\pm}$, which are control channels, are measured to be $(-0.2 \\pm1.3)\\%$ and $(+1.7\\pm1.3)\\%$, respectively. All results are consistent with theoretical expectations.

  6. Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

  7. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

  8. Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often...... at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...... PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records....

  9. Eta mesons in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.C.

    1987-01-01

    The possibility of producing eta-mesic nuclei by the use of pions is discussed. If these nuclei are observed experimentally, then the binding energies of the eta in this new nuclear matter can be used to extract accurately the eta-N-N* coupling constant in a nucleus. The framework for these calculations is the coupled channel isobar model

  10. ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostyslav Lytvyn

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.

  11. Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

  12. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

    2017-08-29

    In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

  13. Gravity Chromatic Imaging of the Eta Car's Core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Bermudez, Joel

    2018-04-01

    Eta Car is one of the most massive, and intriguing, Luminous Blue Variables known. In its core resides a binary with a 5.54 years orbital period. Visible, infrared, and X-raobservations suggest that the primary star exhibits a very dense wind with a terminal velocity of about 420 km/s, while the secondary shows a much faster and less dense wind with a terminal velocity of 3000 km/s. The wind-wind collision zone at the core of Eta Car is thus a complex region that deserves a detailed study to understand the effect of the binary interaction in the evolution of the system. Here, we will present a unique imaging campaign with GRAVITY/VLTI of the Eta Car's core. The superb quality of our interferometric data, together with state-of-the-art image reconstruction techniques, allowed us to obtain, with milliarcsecond resolution, continuum and chromatic images cross the BrG and HeI lines in the Eta Car K-band spectrum (R 4000). These new data together with models of the primary wind of Eta Car has letting us to characterize the spatial distribution of the dust and gas in the inner 40 AU wind-wind collision zone of the target.

  14. MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A; Moore, Ronald L; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the “Present MAG4” technique and each of three alternative techniques, called “McIntosh Active-Region Class,” “Total Magnetic Flux,” and “Next MAG4.” We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4). Key Points Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux PMID:26213517

  15. Observation of eta-c and other structures in the radiative decay psi to eta pi-plus pi-minus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.J.

    1984-01-01

    The Mark III detector at SPEAR was used to observe the exclusive radiative decay psi → γetaπ + π - . The eta/sub c/ was seen as an intermediate state in this decay, psi → γeta/sub c/, eta/sub c/ → etaπ + π - . The product branching ratio B(psi → γeta/sub c/) B(eta/sub c/ → etaπ + π - ) was measured to be 4.2 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 0.5 (sys) x 10 -4 . Other resonant structure was observed in the etaπ + π - spectrum in the range 1 + π - / 2 , which appears to decay via X → delta -+ π +- , delta -+ → etaπ +- . A spin-parity analysis was performed to determine the quantum numbers of the resonances responsible for this structure. However, the result was seen to be model dependent, so that it was not possible to conclusively resolve the underlying structure in the spectrum. No evidence was seen for the decay iota → etaπ + π - . An upper limit was set for the ratio of branching ratios for iota → etaππ relative to iota → KKπ, R = (B(psi → γiota) B(iota → etaππ))/(B(psi → γiota) B(iota → KKπ)) < 0.2 (90% C.L.)

  16. Measurement of $\\mid\\eta_{00}\\mid^{2}$/$\\mid\\eta_{+-}\\mid^{2}$

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this experiment is an accurate determination of the ratio of neutral to charged two pion decays of $K_{L}$ and $K_{S}$ mesons: \\\\ R=$|\\eta_{00}|^{2}/|\\eta_{+-}|^{2} = \\Gamma(K _{L} \\rightarrow 2\\pi^{0})/\\Gamma(K _{S} \\rightarrow 2\\pi^{0}) : \\Gamma(K_{L} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})/\\Gamma(K_{S} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})$ \\\\ In the superweak model of CP violation this ratio is equal to one exactly. Sizeable deviations from unity are predicted in popular models of the weak and electromagnetic interaction among six quarks. \\\\ The two decay modes $K^{0} \\rightarrow 2\\pi^{0}$ and $K^{0} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-}$ are measured simultaneously, and alternately in $K_{L}$ and $K_{S}$ beams. The detector consists of\\\\ 1) an evacuated decay region; \\\\ 2) proportional wire chambers to measure the charged pion directions; \\\\ 3) a liquid argon calorimeter with good energy and position resolution to measure the photons from $\\pi^{0}$ decays; \\\\ 4) a hadron calorimeter to measure the energy of the charged pio...

  17. Chiral symmetry and eta, eta' → 3π decays. Grand unified theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roiesnel, C.

    1982-11-01

    Two different topics related to symmetry breaking are discussed. First the eta, eta' → 3π decays are presented. The amplitudes eta, eta' → 3π are calculated with the square root threshold singularity induced by the strong pion-pion final state interaction properly taken into account. It is shown that the eta' → 3π decay rate depends sensitively upon an improved treatment of the pseudoscalar nonet mass matrix. Then symmetry-breaking effects in grand unified theories are discussed. The threshold effects in a spontaneously broken gauge theory are studied. In particular a computation of the symmetry-breaking effects in the SU(5) grand unified theory including those of the breaking of SU(2)xU(1) is presented. As an application a precise value of the superheavy gauge boson mass Mx is given. It is possible in SU(5) to define a natural effective weak angle theta w(μ) for any scale μ, below as well as above Mw, and the predicted curve for sin 2 theta w(μ) is given [fr

  18. Eta Carinae: Linelist for the Emission Spectrum of the Weigelt Blobs in the 1700-10400Angstrom Wavelength Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zethson, T.; Johansson, S.; Hartman, H.; Gull, T. R.

    2011-01-01

    Aims. We present line identifications in the 1700 to 10400A region for the Weigelt Blobs B and D, located 0.1 to 0.3" NNW of Eta Carinae. The aim of this work is to characterize the behavior of these luminous, dense gas condensations in response to the broad maximum and short minimum states of Eta Carinae during its 5.54-year spectroscopic period. Methods. The observations were carried out during March 1998, the minimum spectrum, and in February 1999, early maximum spectrum, with the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) from 1640 to 10400A using the 52"x0.1" aperture centered on Eta Carinae at position angle -28 degrees. Extractions of the reduced spectrum centered on Weigelt B and D, 0.28: in length along the slit, were used to identify the narrow, nebular emission lines, measure their wavelengths and estimate their fluxes. Results. A linelist of 1500 lines is presented for the maximum and minimum states of combined Weigelt blobs B and D. The spectra are dominated by emission lines from the iron-group elements, but include lines from lighter elements. They include parity permitted and forbidden lines. A number of lines are fluorescent lines pumped by H Ly alpha. Other lines show anomalous excitation.

  19. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

  1. Observation of eta-c and other structures in the radiative decay psi to gamma eta pi-plus pi-minus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.J.

    1984-01-01

    The Mark III detector at SPEAR was used to observe the exclusive radiative decay psi → γ eta π + π - . The eta c was seen as an intermediate state in this decay, psi → γ eta c, eta c → eta π + π - . The product branching ratio B(psi → γ eta c) B(eta c → eta π + π - ) was measured to be 4.2 +- 0.5 (stat) +- 0.5 (sys) x 10 -4 . Other resonant structure was observed in the eta π + π - spectrum in the range 1 + π-/ 2 , which appears to decay via X → delta +- π -+ , delta +- → eta π +- . A spin-parity analysis was performed to determine the quantum numbers of the resonances responsible for this structure. However, the result was seen to be model dependent, so that it was not possible to conclusively resolve the underlying structure in the spectrum. No evidence was seen for the decay iota → eta π + π - . An upper limit was set for the ratio of branching ratios for iota → eta ππ relative to iota → KKπ, R = B(psi → γiota)B(iota → eta ππ)/B(psi → γiota)B(iota → KKπ) < 0.2 (90% C.L.). 54 references, 59 figures

  2. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  3. Experiments on eta-meson production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Following a review of some highlights of eta-meson characteristics, the status of eta-meson production experiments is reviewed. The physics motivations and first results of two LAMPF experiments on (π,eta) reactions are discussed. Possible future experiments are also discussed. 42 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs

  4. 1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

  5. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  6. Odd and Even Partial Waves of $\\eta\\pi^-$ and $\\eta'\\pi^-$ in $\\pi^-p\\to\\eta^{(\\prime)}\\pi^-p$ at $191\\,\\textrm{GeV}/c$

    CERN Document Server

    Adolph, C.; Alexeev, M.G.; Alexeev, G.D.; Amoroso, A.; Andrieux, V.; Anosov, V.; Austregesilo, A.; Badelek, B.; Balestra, F.; Barth, J.; Baum, G.; Beck, R.; Bedfer, Y.; Berlin, A.; Bernhard, J.; Bicker, K.; Bielert, E.R.; Bieling, J.; Birsa, R.; Bisplinghoff, J.; Bodlak, M.; Boer, M.; Bordalo, P.; Bradamante, F.; Braun, C.; Bressan, A.; Buchele, M.; Burtin, E.; Capozza, L.; Chiosso, M.; Chung, S.U.; Cicuttin, A.; Crespo, M.L.; Curiel, Q.; Dalla Torre, S.; Dasgupta, S.S.; Dasgupta, S.; Denisov, O.Yu.; Donskov, S.V.; Doshita, N.; Duic, V.; Dunnweber, W.; Dziewiecki, M.; Efremov, A.; Elia, C.; Eversheim, P.D.; Eyrich, W.; Faessler, M.; Ferrero, A.; Finger, M.; M. Finger jr; Fischer, H.; Franco, C.; von Hohenesche, N. du Fresne; Friedrich, J.M.; Frolov, V.; Gautheron, F.; Gavrichtchouk, O.P.; Gerassimov, S.; Geyer, R.; Gnesi, I.; Gobbo, B.; Goertz, S.; Gorzellik, M.; Grabmuller, S.; Grasso, A.; Grube, B.; Grussenmeyer, T.; Guskov, A.; Haas, F.; von Harrach, D.; Hahne, D.; Hashimoto, R.; Heinsius, F.H.; Herrmann, F.; Hinterberger, F.; Hoppner, Ch.; Horikawa, N.; d'Hose, N.; Huber, S.; Ishimoto, S.; Ivanov, A.; Ivanshin, Yu.; Iwata, T.; Jahn, R.; Jary, V.; Jasinski, P.; Jorg, P.; Joosten, R.; Kabuss, E.; Ketzer, B.; Khaustov, G.V.; Khokhlov, Yu. A.; Kisselev, Yu.; Klein, F.; Klimaszewski, K.; Koivuniemi, J.H.; Kolosov, V.N.; Kondo, K.; Konigsmann, K.; Konorov, I.; Konstantinov, V.F.; Kotzinian, A.M.; Kouznetsov, O.; Kramer, M.; Kroumchtein, Z.V.; Kuchinski, N.; Kunne, F.; Kurek, K.; Kurjata, R.P.; Lednev, A.A.; Lehmann, A.; Levillain, M.; Levorato, S.; Lichtenstadt, J.; Maggiora, A.; Magnon, A.; Makke, N.; Mallot, G.K.; Marchand, C.; Martin, A.; Marzec, J.; Matousek, J.; Matsuda, H.; Matsuda, T.; Meshcheryakov, G.; Meyer, W.; Michigami, T.; Mikhailov, Yu. V.; Miyachi, Y.; Nagaytsev, A.; Nagel, T.; Nerling, F.; Neubert, S.; Neyret, D.; Novy, J.; Nowak, W.D.; Nunes, A.S.; Olshevsky, A.G.; Orlov, I.; Ostrick, M.; Panknin, R.; Panzieri, D.; Parsamyan, B.; Paul, S.; Peshekhonov, D.V.; Platchkov, S.; Pochodzalla, J.; Polyakov, V.A.; Pretz, J.; Quaresma, M.; Quintans, C.; Ramos, S.; Regali, C.; Reicherz, G.; Rocco, E.; Rossiyskaya, N.S.; Ryabchikov, D.I.; Rychter, A.; Samoylenko, V.D.; Sandacz, A.; Sarkar, S.; Savin, I.A.; Sbrizzai, G.; Schiavon, P.; Schill, C.; Schluter, T.; Schmidt, K.; Schmieden, H.; Schonning, K.; Schopferer, S.; Schott, M.; Shevchenko, O.Yu.; Silva, L.; Sinha, L.; Sirtl, S.; Slunecka, M.; Sosio, S.; Sozzi, F.; Srnka, A.; Steiger, L.; Stolarski, M.; Sulc, M.; Sulej, R.; Suzuki, H.; Szabelski, A.; Szameitat, T.; Sznajder, P.; Takekawa, S.; Wolbeek, J. ter; Tessaro, S.; Tessarotto, F.; Thibaud, F.; Uhl, S.; Uman, I.; Virius, M.; Wang, L.; Weisrock, T.; Wilfert, M.; Windmolders, R.; Wollny, H.; Zaremba, K.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zemlyanichkina, E.; Ziembicki, M.; Zink, A.

    2015-01-01

    Exclusive production of $\\eta\\pi^-$ and $\\eta'\\pi^-$ has been studied with a $191\\,\\textrm{GeV}/c$ $\\pi^-$ beam impinging on a hydrogen target at COMPASS (CERN). Partial-wave analyses reveal different odd/even angular momentum ($L$) characteristics in the inspected invariant mass range up to $3\\,\\textrm{GeV}/c^2$. A striking similarity between the two systems is observed for the $L=2,4,6$ intensities (scaled by kinematical factors) and the relative phases. The known resonances $a_2(1320)$ and $a_4(2040)$ are in line with this similarity. In contrast, a strong enhancement of $\\eta'\\pi^-$ over $\\eta\\pi^-$ is found for the $L=1,3,5$ waves, which carry non-$q\\bar q$ quantum numbers. The $L=1$ intensity peaks at $1.7\\,\\textrm{GeV}/c^2$ in $\\eta'\\pi^-$ and at $1.4\\,\\textrm{GeV}/c^2$ in $\\eta\\pi^-$, the corresponding phase motions with respect to $L=2$ are different.

  7. The reactions K-p→Λπ0, Λeta, Λeta' at 4.2 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marzano, F.; Hemingway, R.J.; Loverre, P.F.; Marechal, B.; Schrempp, B.; Blokzijl, R.; Hoogland, W.; Kluyver, J.C.; Massaro, G.G.G.; Tiecke, H.G.; Walle, R.T. van de; Vergeest, J.S.M.

    1977-01-01

    In a high statistics CERN 2 m bubble chamber experiment the differential cross sections and polarizations of the Λ for the reactions K - p→Λπ 0 , Λeta, Λeta' at 4.2 GeV/c have been measured. The reaction K - p→Λeta exhibits a pronounced dip around -t approximately 0.5 (GeV/c) 2 and all three reactions show a significant backward peaking (-u 2 ). The Λ polarization in the reaction K - p→Λπ 0 is measured to be significantly different from zero throughout most of the available t-range. Forward cross sections enable a determination of Rsub(T), the ratio of singlet/octet coupling eta 1 KK**/eta 8 KK**. Backward cross sections are utilized to estimate the effective eta-nucleon coupling constant gsub(etaNN) 2 over the -u range 0-1.5 (GeV/c) 2 . (Auth.)

  8. Telekomunikazio-sare eta zerbitzuak: teoria

    OpenAIRE

    Huarte Arrayago, Maider; Saiz Agustín, Purificación; Goirizelaia Ordorika, Iñaki

    2011-01-01

    Helburuak: Testu-liburu honen helburua bikoitza da, 'Telekomunikazio-sare eta zerbitzuak' (2001eko ikasketa-planetako Telekomunikazio Ingeniaritza Teknikoetako 2. mailan irakasten zena) eta 'Telekomunikazio-sare eta zerbitzuak I' (1995eko ikasketa-planetako Telekomunikazio Ingeniaritzako 2. mailan irakasten zena) irakasgaietako ikasleentzat (hortaz, ikasketarako) zein irakasleentzat (hots, irakaskuntzarako) lagungarri izatea. Horregatik, ikasgelan azaldutako kontzeptuen kontsultarako testu-li...

  9. Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

    2017-10-01

    Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

  10. Study of pp{yields}pp{eta} reaction at threshold; Etude de la reaction pp{yields}pp{eta} au seuil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taleb, A

    1994-11-01

    The {eta} production has been studied through the pp {yields} pp{eta} reaction at threshold. Data were taken at the Synchrotron of the ``Laboratoire National Saturne``. The detection in coincidence of the two protons scattered near 0 deg and analysed with the magnetic spectrometer SPES3 allows the reconstruction of missing mass spectra for the {eta} signature. A simulation program which takes into account all the experimental set up characteristics has been realized and tested through the pp {yields} d{pi}{sup +} reaction detected simultaneously with pp {yields} pp{eta}. The generated proton momentum spectra for pp {yields} pp{eta} show a pronounced {eta} mass dependence. This characteristic, connected to the kinematical properties of pp {yields} pp{eta} at threshold, is used to extract the mass of the meson {eta}. The obtained value, m{sub {eta}} = 547.65 {+-} 0.18 MeV, is in good agreement with measurement done recently through the pd {yields} {sup H}e{eta} reaction. The total cross section {sigma}{sub t} of pp {yields} pp{eta} measured at 1260, 1265 and 1300 MeV presents a strong energy dependence. This cross section increases less with energy than the phase-space. The influence of p-p and {eta}-p final state interactions in our measurements is studied. Our results are compared with theoretical predictions and assess the dominant character of the baryonic resonance N{sup *}(1535) in the {eta} mechanism production at threshold. These experimental results give an energy dependence which is not well reproduced by the theoretical predictions. This discrepancy could be an incorrect description of the {eta}-p interaction in the models. (author). 48 refs., 60 figs., 15 tabs.

  11. Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

  12. DETECTION OF GAMMA-RAY EMISSION FROM THE ETA-CARINAE REGION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tavani, M.; Viotti, R. F.; Argan, A.; Cocco, V.; D'Ammando, F.; Costa, E.; Sabatini, S.; Pian, E.; Bulgarelli, A.; Caraveo, P.; Giuliani, A.; Vercellone, S.; Mereghetti, S.; Chen, A. W.; Corcoran, M. F.; Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Boffelli, F.; Cattaneo, P. W.

    2009-01-01

    We present the results of extensive observations by the gamma-ray AGILE satellite of the Galactic region hosting the Carina nebula and the remarkable colliding wind binary Eta Carinae (η Car) during the period 2007 July-2009 January. We detect a gamma-ray source (1AGL J1043-5931) consistent with the position of η Car. If 1AGL J1043-5931 is associated with the Car system, our data provide the long sought first detection above 100 MeV of a colliding wind binary. The average gamma-ray flux above 100 MeV and integrated over the preperiastron period 2007 July-2008 October is F γ = (37 ± 5) x 10 -8 ph cm -2 s -1 corresponding to an average gamma-ray luminosity of L γ = 3.4 x 10 34 erg s -1 for a distance of 2.3 kpc. We also report a two-day gamma-ray flaring episode of 1AGL J1043-5931 on 2008 October 11-13 possibly related to a transient acceleration and radiation episode of the strongly variable shock in the system.

  13. $\\eta$-metric structures

    OpenAIRE

    Gaba, Yaé Ulrich

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss recent results about generalized metric spaces and fixed point theory. We introduce the notion of $\\eta$-cone metric spaces, give some topological properties and prove some fixed point theorems for contractive type maps on these spaces. In particular we show that theses $\\eta$-cone metric spaces are natural generalizations of both cone metric spaces and metric type spaces.

  14. Regional corrections and checking the reliability of geomagnetic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'eva, V.I.; Shevnin, A.D.

    1978-01-01

    Regional corrections of the K index mark estimate with respect to the Moskva observatory are reviewed in order to improve the short-range forecast of the geomagnetic activity and to promote it within the aqua area. The forecasts of the storms of all categories and weak perturbations have been verified for the predominant days in the catalogue of the magnetic storms family. It is shown that the adopted methods of forecasts yield considerably good results for weak perturbations as well as for weak and moderate magnetic storms. Strong and very strong storms are less predictable

  15. The ETA systems plans for supercomputers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swanson, C.D.

    1987-01-01

    The ETA Systems, is a class VII supercomputer featuring multiprocessing, a large hierarchical memory system, high performance input/output, and network support for both batch and interactive processing. Advanced technology used in the ETA 10 includes liquid nitrogen cooled CMOS logic with 20,000 gates per chip, a single printed circuit board for each CPU, and high density static and dynamic MOS memory chips. Software for the ETA 10 includes an underlying kernel that supports multiple user environments, a new ETA FORTRAN compiler with an advanced automatic vectorizer, a multitasking library and debugging tools. Possible developments for future supercomputers from ETA Systems are discussed

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

  17. A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; McNally, Amy; Husak, Gregory; Funk, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

     The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. More accurate seasonal agricultural drought forecasts for this region can inform better water and agricultural management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts and floods. Here we describe the development and implementation of a seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for East Africa (EA) that provides decision support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's science team. We evaluate this forecast system for a region of equatorial EA (2° S to 8° N, and 36° to 46° E) for the March-April-May growing season. This domain encompasses one of the most food insecure, climatically variable and socio-economically vulnerable regions in EA, and potentially the world: this region has experienced famine as recently as 2011. To assess the agricultural outlook for the upcoming season our forecast system simulates soil moisture (SM) scenarios using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model forced with climate scenarios for the upcoming season. First, to show that the VIC model is appropriate for this application we forced the model with high quality atmospheric observations and found that the resulting SM values were consistent with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), an index used by FEWS NET to estimate crop yields. Next we tested our forecasting system with hindcast runs (1993–2012). We found that initializing SM forecasts with start-of-season (5 March) SM conditions resulted in useful SM forecast skill (> 0.5 correlation) at 1-month, and in some cases at 3 month lead times. Similarly, when the forecast was initialized with mid-season (i.e. 5 April) SM conditions the skill until the end-of-season improved. This shows that early-season rainfall

  18. Search for tau decays to the eta meson

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skwarnicki, T.

    1987-12-01

    Using a sample of 530,000 tau leptons collected by the Crystal Ball experiment at the e + e - storage ring DORIS II, we have searched for tau decays to the eta meson. No eta signal is found in the inclusive analysis, tau → eta X, of 1-prong decays, leading to the upper limits, BR(tau - → nu π - eta) - → π - π 0 eta) - → nu π - π 0 π 0 eta) - → nu π - eta eta) - → nu π - eta and tau - → nu π - π 0 eta, are also not found in the exclusive analyses, while BR(tau - → nu π - π 0 ) = (22.7 +- 0.9 +- 3.0)% and BR(tau - → nu π - π 0 π 0 ) = (7.0 +- 0.7 +- 1.4)% are measured in accord with the expectations. The hadronic final state, π - π 0 π 0 , is reconstructed in tau decays for the first time. The results are preliminary. 21 refs., 10 figs

  19. Search for the $C\\!P$-violating strong decays $\\eta \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-$ and $\\eta^\\prime(958) \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-$

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Andreassi, Guido; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Archilli, Flavio; d'Argent, Philippe; Arnau Romeu, Joan; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Babuschkin, Igor; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baker, Sophie; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Baszczyk, Mateusz; Batozskaya, Varvara; Batsukh, Baasansuren; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Bel, Lennaert; Bellee, Violaine; Belloli, Nicoletta; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Betancourt, Christopher; Betti, Federico; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bezshyiko, Iaroslava; Bifani, Simone; Billoir, Pierre; Bird, Thomas; Birnkraut, Alex; Bitadze, Alexander; Bizzeti, Andrea; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frederic; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Boettcher, Thomas; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Bordyuzhin, Igor; Borgheresi, Alessio; Borghi, Silvia; Borisyak, Maxim; Borsato, Martino; Bossu, Francesco; Boubdir, Meriem; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Braun, Svende; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Buchanan, Emma; Burr, Christopher; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Camboni, Alessandro; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel Hugo; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carniti, Paolo; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cavallero, Giovanni; Cenci, Riccardo; Chamont, David; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chatzikonstantinidis, Georgios; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chobanova, Veronika; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombs, George; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Costa Sobral, Cayo Mar; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Dall'Occo, Elena; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Aguiar Francisco, Oscar; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Serio, Marilisa; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Demmer, Moritz; Dendek, Adam; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Dey, Biplab; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dufour, Laurent; Dujany, Giulio; Dungs, Kevin; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Déléage, Nicolas; Easo, Sajan; Ebert, Marcus; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Fazzini, Davide; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Prieto, Antonio; Ferrari, Fabio; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fini, Rosa Anna; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fleuret, Frederic; Fohl, Klaus; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forshaw, Dean Charles; Forty, Roger; Franco Lima, Vinicius; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Färber, Christian; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; Garcia Martin, Luis Miguel; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Garsed, Philip John; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Gerick, David; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Girard, Olivier Göran; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gizdov, Konstantin; Gligorov, V.V.; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gorelov, Igor Vladimirovich; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Gruberg Cazon, Barak Raimond; Grünberg, Oliver; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Göbel, Carla; Hadavizadeh, Thomas; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; Hatch, Mark; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heister, Arno; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hombach, Christoph; Hopchev, P H; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Humair, Thibaud; Hushchyn, Mikhail; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jiang, Feng; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Kariuki, James Mwangi; Karodia, Sarah; Kecke, Matthieu; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Kenzie, Matthew; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khairullin, Egor; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Kirn, Thomas; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Koliiev, Serhii; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Kosmyntseva, Alena; Kozachuk, Anastasiia; Kozeiha, Mohamad; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Krzemien, Wojciech; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kuonen, Axel Kevin; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Lefèvre, Regis; Lemaitre, Florian; Lemos Cid, Edgar; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Tenglin; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Liu, Xuesong; Loh, David; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lucchesi, Donatella; Lucio Martinez, Miriam; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Lusiani, Alberto; Lyu, Xiao-Rui; Machefert, Frederic; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Maguire, Kevin; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Maltsev, Timofei; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Manning, Peter Michael; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martin, Morgan; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massacrier, Laure Marie; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathad, Abhijit; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mauri, Andrea; Maurin, Brice; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Melnychuk, Dmytro; Merk, Marcel; Merli, Andrea; Michielin, Emanuele; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Mitzel, Dominik Stefan; Mogini, Andrea; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monroy, Ignacio Alberto; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Mulder, Mick; Mussini, Manuel; Müller, Dominik; Müller, Janine; Müller, Katharina; Müller, Vanessa; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nandi, Anita; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nieswand, Simon; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Ogilvy, Stephen; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Aranzazu; Pais, Preema Rennee; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parker, William; Parkes, Christopher; Passaleva, Giovanni; Pastore, Alessandra; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Pescatore, Luca; Petridis, Konstantinos; Petrolini, Alessandro; Petrov, Aleksandr; Petruzzo, Marco; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pikies, Malgorzata; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Piucci, Alessio; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Poikela, Tuomas; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Pomery, Gabriela Johanna; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Poslavskii, Stanislav; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Quagliani, Renato; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rama, Matteo; Ramos Pernas, Miguel; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Ratnikov, Fedor; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; dos Reis, Alberto; Remon Alepuz, Clara; Renaudin, Victor; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vicente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Lopez, Jairo Alexis; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Rogozhnikov, Alexey; Roiser, Stefan; Rollings, Alexandra Paige; Romanovskiy, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Ronayne, John William; Rotondo, Marcello; Rudolph, Matthew Scott; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sadykhov, Elnur; Sagidova, Naylya; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santimaria, Marco; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schael, Stefan; Schellenberg, Margarete; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmelzer, Timon; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schubert, Konstantin; Schubiger, Maxime; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sergi, Antonino; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Siddi, Benedetto Gianluca; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Silva de Oliveira, Luiz Gustavo; Simi, Gabriele; Simone, Saverio; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Iwan Thomas; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Stefko, Pavol; Stefkova, Slavorima; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stemmle, Simon; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Tayduganov, Andrey; Tekampe, Tobias; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tilley, Matthew James; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Toriello, Francis; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Trabelsi, Karim; Traill, Murdo; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tully, Alison; Tuning, Niels; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valassi, Andrea; Valat, Sebastien; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vecchi, Stefania; van Veghel, Maarten; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Venkateswaran, Aravindhan; Vernet, Maxime; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Viemann, Harald; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vitti, Marcela; Volkov, Vladimir; Vollhardt, Achim; Voneki, Balazs; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Wark, Heather Mckenzie; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Weiden, Andreas; Whitehead, Mark; Wicht, Jean; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Mark Richard James; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Williams, Timothy; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wraight, Kenneth; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yao, Yuezhe; Yin, Hang; Yu, Jiesheng; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zarebski, Kristian Alexander; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhang, Yu; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zheng, Yangheng; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhu, Xianglei; Zhukov, Valery; Zucchelli, Stefano

    2017-01-10

    A search for the $C\\!P$-violating strong decays $\\eta \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-$ and $\\eta^\\prime(958) \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-$ has been performed using approximately $2.5 \\times 10^{7}$ events of each of the decays $D^+ \\to \\pi^+\\pi^+\\pi^-$ and $D_s^+ \\to \\pi^+\\pi^+\\pi^-$, recorded by the LHCb experiment. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb$^{-1}$ of $pp$ collision data recorded during LHC Run 1 and 0.3 fb$^{-1}$ recorded in Run 2. No evidence is seen for $D^+_{(s)} \\to \\pi^+ \\eta^{(\\prime)}$ with $\\eta^{(\\prime)} \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-$, and upper limits at 90% confidence level are set on the branching fractions, $\\mathcal{B}(\\eta \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-) < 1.6 \\times 10^{-5}$ and $\\mathcal{B}(\\eta^\\prime \\to \\pi^+\\pi^-) < 1.8 \\times 10^{-5}$. The limit for the $\\eta$ decay is comparable with the existing one, while that for the $\\eta^\\prime$ is a factor of three smaller than the previous limit.

  20. Observation of High Momentum {ital {eta}}{sup {prime}} Production in {ital B} Decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Browder, T.E.; Li, Y.; Rodriguez, J.L. [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 (United States); Bergfeld, T.; Eisenstein, B.I.; Ernst, J.; Gladding, G.E.; Gollin, G.D.; Hans, R.M.; Johnson, E.; Karliner, I.; Marsh, M.A.; Palmer, M.; Selen, M.; Thaler, J.J. [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois 61801 (United States); Edwards, K.W.; Edwards, K.W. [the Institute of Particle Physics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Bellerive, A.; Bellerive, A.; Janicek, R.; Janicek, R.; MacFarlane, D.B.; MacFarlane, D.B.; Patel, P.M.; Patel, P.M. [the Institute of Particle Physics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Sadoff, A.J. [Ithaca College, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States); Ammar, R.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Besson, D.; Coppage, D.; Darling, C.; Davis, R.; Kotov, S.; Kravchenko, I.; Kwak, N.; Zhou, L. [University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045 (United States); Anderson, S.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, S.J.; ONeill, J.J.; Poling, R.; Riehle, T.; Smith, A. [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 (United States); Alam, M.S.; Athar, S.B.; Ling, Z.; Mahmood, A.H.; Timm, S.; Wappler, F. [State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York 12222 (United States); Anastassov, A.; Duboscq, J.E.; Fujino, D.; Gan, K.K.; Hart, T.; Honscheid, K.; Kagan, H.; Kass, R.; Lee, J.; Spencer, M.B.; Sung, M.; Undrus, A.; Wolf, A.; Zoeller, M.M. [The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States); Nemati, B.; Richichi, S.J.; Ross, W.R.; Severini, H.; Skubic, P. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Bishai, M.; Fast, J.; Hinson, J.W.; Menon, N.; Miller, D.H.; Shibata, E.I.; Shipsey, I.P.; Yurko, M. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Glenn, S.; Kwon, Y.; Lyon, A.L.; Roberts, S.; Thorndike, E.H. [University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627 (United States); Jessop, C.P.; Lingel, K.; Marsiske, H.; Perl, M.L.; Savinov, V.; Ugolini, D.; Zhou, X.; and others

    1998-08-01

    We report the first observation of B{r_arrow}{eta}{sup {prime}}X transitions with high momentum {eta}{sup {prime}} mesons. We observe 39.0{plus_minus}11.6 B decay events with 2.0{lt}p{sub {eta}{sup {prime}}}{lt}2.7 GeV/c , the high momentum region where background from b{r_arrow}c processes is suppressed. We discuss the physical interpretation of the signal, including the possibility that it is due to b{r_arrow}sg{sup {asterisk}} transitions. Given that interpretation, we find B(B{r_arrow}{eta}{sup {prime}}X{sub s} )=[6.2{plus_minus}1.6(stat){plus_minus} 1.3(syst){sup +0.0}{sub {minus}1.5} (bkg)]{times}10{sup {minus}4} for 2.0{lt}p{sub {eta}{sup {prime}}}{lt}2.7 GeV/c . {copyright} {ital 1998} {ital The American Physical Society }

  1. Determination of the {eta} mass from the production threshold for the {gamma}p {yields} p{eta} reaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikolaev, Alexander

    2012-09-06

    This thesis is dedicated to a new precise determination of the {eta} meson mass based on a measurement of the threshold for the {gamma}p {yields} p{eta} reaction. This experiment was performed in the years 2004/2005 using the Crystal Ball/TAPS detector setup and the recently developed tagger focal-plane microscope detector at the MAMI-B facility in the Institut fuer Kernphysik of the Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz. The real photon beam was produced by Bremsstrahlung of the 883 MeV electrons from MAMI-B on a thin diamond radiator. The {eta} mesons were identified via their two main decay modes, {eta} {yields} 2{gamma} and {eta} {yields} 3{pi}{sup 0}, with the Crystal Ball/TAPS setup, which measured energies and emission angles of particles. The identification of the {eta} {yields} 2{gamma} decay was performed using events with two clusters detected as photons, ignoring all other particles, and the standard invariant mass analysis. Cuts were applied on the invariant and missing mass distributions. The identification of the {eta} {yields} 3{pi}{sup 0} {yields} 6{gamma} decay concentrated on events with six clusters detected as photons. Among fifteen possible combinations of six photons to be arranged in three pairs, the combination with the smallest {chi}{sup 2}-value for the three pion masses was assumed to be correct. Cuts were applied on the {chi}{sup 2}-distribution and on the invariant and missing mass distributions. The normalization of the total cross section was obtained from the target thickness, the intensity of the photon flux, the simulated acceptance of the Crystal Ball, and the branching ratios of the {eta} decays. The determination of the {eta} mass required a very precise measurement of the production threshold. This was obtained by fitting the measured cross section as a function of photon energy and gave the result for the {eta} mass, m{sub {eta}}=(547.851{+-}0.031{sub stat.}{+-}0.062{sub syst.}) MeV.

  2. Some Comments on the Decays of eta (550)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltman, M.; Yellin, J.

    1966-07-01

    Various decay modes of the {eta}(500) are discussed. The relations, through SU{sub 3} and the Gell-Mann, Sharp, Wagner model, between the {eta}-decay modes and the modes {eta} {yields} {pi}{pi}{gamma), {pi}{sup 0} {yields} {gamma}{gamma} are investigated taking into account {eta}-{eta}{sup *} mixing. The present experimental values for the neutral branching ratios plus the shape of the {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} Dalitz plot are shown to require a 25% {vert_bar}{Delta}{rvec I}{vert_bar} = 3 contribution to the {eta} {yields} 3{pi} amplitude. The connection between a possible charge asymmetry in {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} and the branching ratio {Gamma}{sub {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup 0}e{sup +}e{sup {minus}}}/{Gamma}{sub {eta}}{sup all} is investigated in the framework of a model proposed earlier by several authors. It is shown that there is no conflict between the existing data and this model. The Dalitz plot distribution of {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} is discussed under various assumptions about the properties of the interaction responsible for the decay. (auth)

  3. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  4. SACLAY: Eta mesons at Saturne

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1992-05-15

    Using a nuclear reaction, the new tagged eta meson facility now operating at the French Saturne National Laboratory in Saclay produces eta mesons (together with recoil helium-3 nuclei) by proton bombardment of a deuterium target. The proton beam is extracted from the Saturne synchrotron at 893 MeV, stabilized to 80 keV. This is a scant 1.5 MeV above the reaction threshold and close to the energy where eta production peaks.

  5. SACLAY: Eta mesons at Saturne

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Using a nuclear reaction, the new tagged eta meson facility now operating at the French Saturne National Laboratory in Saclay produces eta mesons (together with recoil helium-3 nuclei) by proton bombardment of a deuterium target. The proton beam is extracted from the Saturne synchrotron at 893 MeV, stabilized to 80 keV. This is a scant 1.5 MeV above the reaction threshold and close to the energy where eta production peaks

  6. Indications for the decays D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta π/sup +-/ and D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta' π/sup +-/

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormser, G.

    1987-11-01

    A search for D/sub s//sup +-/ decays into eta π/sup +-/ and eta' π/sup +-/ has been performed by the MarkII collaboration at the PEP e + e - storage ring. Eta particles are reconstructed by their γγ decay mode. The eta fragmentation has been measured and found to be in good agreement with the Lund model prediction. Eta' production has been measured for the first time in e + e - high energy annihilation. Good indications are found for both decay modes D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta π/sup +-/ and D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta' π/sup +-/

  7. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-04

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  8. Development of a forecasting method of a region`s electric power demand. 1. Forecasting economic and social indexes; Chiikibetsu denryoku juyo yosoku shuhono kaihatsu ni tsuite. 1. Keizai shakai shihyo no yosoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minato, Y. [Shikoku Research Institute Inc., Kagawa (Japan); Yokoi, Y. [The University of Tokushima, Tokushima (Japan)

    1996-01-20

    This paper relates to the forecasting method of the electric power demands (kWh and kW) of a region, approached by not only time series analysis but economic and social indexes. Those indexes, based on historical statistics such as census and establishment statistics, are rearranged from an administrative division to a managerial division of the electric power company, and applied as fundamental information for forecasting the area`s kWh and also sales promotion. This method of forecasting the area`s kWh is based on the concept that area`s kWh is strongly connected with the population their lifestyle and their activity within the region. In the paper, the framework of the computational model system and forecast result are discussed. The population, number of households and their members, and number of employed persons, are all evaluated. The forecasting method of the area`s population proposed here is based on the concept that the transition of population consists of both natural growth and immigration. By estimating both factors, the future area`s population can be easily forecasted. The information of whether the population is increasing or decreasing is useful for forecasting the region`s kWh and required sales promotion. 8 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  9. Does dinitrogen hydrogenation follow different mechanisms for [(eta5-C5Me4H)2Zr]2(mu2,eta2,eta2-N2) and {[PhP(CH2SiMe2NSiMe2CH2)PPh]Zr}2(mu2,eta2,eta2-N2) complexes? A computational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobadova-Parvanova, Petia; Wang, Qingfang; Quinonero-Santiago, David; Morokuma, Keiji; Musaev, Djamaladdin G

    2006-09-06

    The mechanisms of dinitrogen hydrogenation by two different complexes--[(eta(5)-C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Zr](2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)), synthesized by Chirik and co-workers [Nature 2004, 427, 527], and {[P(2)N(2)]Zr}(2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)), where P(2)N(2) = PhP(CH(2)SiMe(2)NSiMe(2)CH(2))(2)PPh, synthesized by Fryzuk and co-workers [Science 1997, 275, 1445]--are compared with density functional theory calculations. The former complex is experimentally known to be capable of adding more than one H(2) molecule to the side-on coordinated N(2) molecule, while the latter does not add more than one H(2). We have shown that the observed difference in the reactivity of these dizirconium complexes is caused by the fact that the former ligand environment is more rigid than the latter. As a result, the addition of the first H(2) molecule leads to two different products: a non-H-bridged intermediate for the Chirik-type complex and a H-bridged intermediate for the Fryzuk-type complex. The non-H-bridged intermediate requires a smaller energy barrier for the second H(2) addition than the H-bridged intermediate. We have also examined the effect of different numbers of methyl substituents in [(eta(5)-C(5)Me(n)H(5)(-)(n))(2)Zr](2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)) for n = 0, 4, and 5 (n = 5 is hypothetical) and [(eta(5)-C(5)H(2)-1,2,4-Me(3))(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))(2)Zr](2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)) and have shown that all complexes of this type would follow a similar H(2) addition mechanism. We have also performed an extensive analysis on the factors (side-on coordination of N(2) to two Zr centers, availability of the frontier orbitals with appropriate symmetry, and inflexibility of the catalyst ligand environment) that are required for successful hydrogenation of the coordinated dinitrogen.

  10. The cusp effect in {eta}'{yields}{eta}{pi}{pi} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubis, Bastian; Schneider, Sebastian P. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    Strong final-state interactions create a pronounced cusp in {eta}'{yields}{eta}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0} decays. We adapt and generalize the non-relativistic effective field theory framework developed for the extraction of {pi}{pi} scattering lengths from K{yields}3{pi} decays to this case. The cusp effect is predicted to have an effect of more than 8% on the decay spectrum below the {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -} threshold. (orig.)

  11. The reactions K/sup -/p to lambda pi /sup 0/, Lambda eta , Lambda eta ' at 42 GeV/c

    CERN Document Server

    Marzano, F; Hemingway, R J; Hoogland, W; Kluyver, J C; Loverre, P F; Maréchal, B; Massaro, G G G; Schrempp, Barbara; Tiecke, H G; Van de Walle, R T; Vergeest, J S M

    1977-01-01

    In a high statistics CERN 2 m bubble chamber experiment the different cross sections and polarizations of the Lambda for the reactions K/sup -/p to Lambda pi /sup 0/, Lambda eta , lambda eta ' at 4.2 GeV/c have been measured. The reaction K/sup -/p to Lambda eta exhibits a pronounced dip around -t approximately 0.5 (GeV/c)/sup 2/ and all three reactions show a significant backward peaking (-u<1.0 (GeV/c) /sup 2/). The Lambda polarization in the reaction K/sup -/p to Lambda pi /sup 0/ is measured to be significantly different from zero throughout most of the available t-range. Forward cross sections enable a determination of R/sub T/, the ratio of singlet/octet coupling eta /sub 1/KK**/ eta /sub 8/KK**. Backward cross sections are utilized to estimate the effective eta -nucleon coupling constant g /sub eta NN//sup 2/ over the -u range 0-1.5 (GeV/c)/sup 2/. (14 refs).

  12. Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowangould, Dana; Eldridge, Melody; Niemeier, Deb

    2013-01-01

    To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption. - Highlights: • Current tools inconsistently forecast GHG emissions from project-level development. • We outline five assumptions about how projects may affect regional growth. • Our assumptions capture a range of economic and population effects of projects. • Our case study shows that growth assumptions greatly affect regional GHG estimates. • We provide guidelines for selecting a conservative regional growth assumption

  13. Study of $\\eta$ and $\\eta'$ Production in $\\overline{n}p$ Annihilations

    CERN Document Server

    Filippi, A; Botta, E; Bressani, Tullio; Calvo, D; Costa, S; D'Isep, F; Feliciello, A; Iazzi, F; Marcello, S; Minetti, B; Mirfakhraee, N; Balestra, F; Bussa, M P; Busso, L; Cerello, P G; Denisov, O Yu; Garfagnini, R; Grasso, A; Maggiora, A; Panzarasa, A; Panzieri, D; Tosello, F; Bertin, A; Bruschi, M; Capponi, M; De Castro, S; Donà, R; Galli, D; Giacobbe, B; Marconi, U; Massa, I; Piccinini, M; Poli, M; Semprini-Cesari, N; Spighi, R; Vagnoni, V M; Vecchi, S; Villa, M; Vitale, A; Zoccoli, A; Bianconi, A; Bonomi, G; Lodi-Rizzini, E; Venturelli, L; Zenoni, A; Cicalò, C; Masoni, A; Mauro, S; Puddu, G; Serci, S; Usai, G L; Gorchakov, O E; Prakhov, S N; Rozhdestvensky, A M; Sapozhnikov, M G; Tretyak, V I; Gianotti, P; Guaraldo, C; Lanaro, A; Lucherini, V; Petrascu, C; Ableev, V G; Vannucci, Luigi; Vedovato, G; Bendiscioli, G; Filippini, V; Fontana, A; Montagna, P; Rotondi, A; Salvini, P; Tessaro, S

    1999-01-01

    The annihilation fractions and cross sections for the np annihilation reaction in flight (~50-400 MeV/c) into eta pi /sup +/ and eta ' pi /sup +/ final states have been measured. The first ones follow the trend expected for P wave annihilations. From the ratios of the yields an evaluation of the pseudoscalar mixing angle in the standard form is possible. The value found shows that for pseudoscalar meson production from P wave the quark line rule is not grossly violated. (22 refs).

  14. Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieger, Stefan; Greenslade, Diana; Kepert, Jeffrey D.

    2018-05-01

    Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4∘) and regional (resolution 1/10∘) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

  15. Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Skøien

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For many years, meteorological models have been run with perturbated initial conditions or parameters to produce ensemble forecasts that are used as a proxy of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, the ensembles are usually both biased (the mean is systematically too high or too low, compared with the observed weather, and has dispersion errors (the ensemble variance indicates a too low or too high confidence in the forecast, compared with the observed weather. The ensembles are therefore commonly post-processed to correct for these shortcomings. Here we look at one of these techniques, referred to as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS (Gneiting et al., 2005. Originally, the post-processing parameters were identified as a fixed set of parameters for a region. The application of our work is the European Flood Awareness System (http://www.efas.eu, where a distributed model is run with meteorological ensembles as input. We are therefore dealing with a considerably larger data set than previous analyses. We also want to regionalize the parameters themselves for other locations than the calibration gauges. The post-processing parameters are therefore estimated for each calibration station, but with a spatial penalty for deviations from neighbouring stations, depending on the expected semivariance between the calibration catchment and these stations. The estimated post-processed parameters can then be used for regionalization of the postprocessing parameters also for uncalibrated locations using top-kriging in the rtop-package (Skøien et al., 2006, 2014. We will show results from cross-validation of the methodology and although our interest is mainly in identifying exceedance probabilities for certain return levels, we will also show how the rtop package can be used for creating a set of post-processed ensembles through simulations.

  16. Measurement of the Color-Suppressed B0->D(*)0 pi0 /omega/eta/eta Prime Branching Fractions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prudent, X

    2008-11-05

    The authors report results on the branching fraction (BF) measurement of the color-suppressed decays {bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, D*{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, D{sup 0}{eta}, D*{sup 0}{eta}, D{sup 0}{omega}, D*{sup 0}{omega}, D{sup 0}{eta}{prime}, and D*{sup 0}{eta}{prime}. They measure the branching fractions BF(D{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = (2.78 {+-} 0.08 {+-} 0.20) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D*{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = (1.78 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.23) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D{sup 0}{eta}) = (2.41 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.17) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D*{sup 0}{eta}) = (2.32 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.22) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D{sup 0}{omega}) = (2.77 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.22) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D*{sup 0}{omega}) = (4.44 {+-} 0.23 {+-} 0.61) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D{sup 0}{eta}{prime}) = (1.38 {+-} 0.12 {+-} 0.22) x 10{sup -4} and BF(D*{sup 0}{eta}{prime}) = (1.29 {+-} 0.23 {+-} 0.23) x 10{sup -4}, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The result is based on a sample of (454 {+-} 5) x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs collected at the {Upsilon}(4S) resonance from 1999 to 2007, with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II storage rings at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The measurements are compared to theoretical predictions by factorization, SCET and pQCD. The presence of final state interactions predictions by factorization, SCET and pQCD. The presence of final state interactions is confirmed and the measurements seem to be more in favor of SCET compared to pQCD.

  17. Measurement of CP asymmetries in D-+/- -> eta 'pi(+/-) and D-S(+/-) -> eta 'pi(+/-) decays

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dufour, L.; Mulder, M; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Pellegrino, A.; Tolk, S.; van Veghel, M.

    2017-01-01

    A search for CP violation in D-+/- -> eta 'pi(+/-) and D-S(+/-) -> eta 'pi(+/-) decays is performed using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb(-1), recorded by the LHCb experiment at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV. The measured CP-violating charge

  18. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  19. Regional climate modeling: Should one attempt improving on the large scales? Lateral boundary condition scheme: Any impact?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veljovic, Katarina; Rajkovic, Borivoj [Belgrade Univ. (RS). Inst. of Meteorology; Fennessy, Michael J.; Altshuler, Eric L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Mesinger, Fedor [Maryland Univ., College Park (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center; Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Belgrade (RS)

    2010-06-15

    A considerable number of authors presented experiments in which degradation of large scale circulation occurred in regional climate integrations when large-scale nudging was not used (e.g., von Storch et al., 2000; Biner et al., 2000; Rockel et al., 2008; Sanchez-Gomez et al., 2008; Alexandru et al., 2009; among others). We here show an earlier 9-member ensemble result of the June-August precipitation difference over the contiguous United States between the ''flood year'' of 1993 and the ''drought year'' of 1988, in which the Eta model nested in the COLA AGCM gave a rather accurate depiction of the analyzed difference, even though the driver AGCM failed in doing so to the extent of having a minimum in the area where the maximum ought to be. It is suggested that this could hardly have been possible without an RCM's improvement in the large scales of the driver AGCM. We further revisit the issue by comparing the large scale skill of the Eta RCM against that of a global ECMWF 32-day ensemble forecast used as its driver. Another issue we are looking into is that of the lateral boundary condition (LBC) scheme. The question we ask is whether the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme is necessary for a desirable RCM performance? We address this by running the Eta in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these is the traditional relaxation scheme and the other is the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. The skills of these two sets of RCM forecasts are compared against each other and also against that of their driver. A novelty in our experiments is the verification used. In order to test the large scale skill we are looking at the forecast position accuracy of the strongest winds at the jet stream level, which we have taken as 250 hPa. We do this by calculating bias adjusted

  20. Structure and mechanism of human DNA polymerase [eta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biertümpfel, Christian; Zhao, Ye; Kondo, Yuji; Ramón-Maiques, Santiago; Gregory, Mark; Lee, Jae Young; Masutani, Chikahide; Lehmann, Alan R.; Hanaoka, Fumio; Yang, Wei (Sussex); (NIH); (Gakushuin); (Osaka)

    2010-11-03

    The variant form of the human syndrome xeroderma pigmentosum (XPV) is caused by a deficiency in DNA polymerase {eta} (Pol{eta}), a DNA polymerase that enables replication through ultraviolet-induced pyrimidine dimers. Here we report high-resolution crystal structures of human Pol{eta} at four consecutive steps during DNA synthesis through cis-syn cyclobutane thymine dimers. Pol{eta} acts like a 'molecular splint' to stabilize damaged DNA in a normal B-form conformation. An enlarged active site accommodates the thymine dimer with excellent stereochemistry for two-metal ion catalysis. Two residues conserved among Pol{eta} orthologues form specific hydrogen bonds with the lesion and the incoming nucleotide to assist translesion synthesis. On the basis of the structures, eight Pol{eta} missense mutations causing XPV can be rationalized as undermining the molecular splint or perturbing the active-site alignment. The structures also provide an insight into the role of Pol{eta} in replicating through D loop and DNA fragile sites.

  1. etaγ decays of rho0, ω, and phi mesons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, D.E.; Fukushima, Y.; Harvey, J.; Lobkowicz, F.; May, E.N.; Nelson, C.A. Jr.; Thorndike, E.H.

    1977-01-01

    etaγ decays of rho 0 , ω, and phi are studied. We find GAMMA (phi→etaγ) =55 +- 12 keV. Our data admit two solutions for (rho 0 , ω) →etaγ: Either GAMMA (rho 0 →etaγ) =50 +- 13 keV, GAMMA (ω→etaγ) =3.0 +2 /sup ./ 5 /sub -/ 1 /sub ./ 8 keV, and the (ω,rho) →etaγ relative decay phase is near zero; or GAMMA (rho 0 →etaγ) =76 +- 15 keV, GAMMA (ω→etaγ) =29 +- 7 keV, and the decay phase is near 180degree

  2. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  3. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System: From R&D to Operational Regional Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Rocha Fragoso, M.; Moore, A. M.; dos Santos, F. A.; Marques Da Cruz, L.; Carvalho, G. V.; Soares, F.

    2016-02-01

    Santos Basin is located on the Southwestern Brazilian Ocean Basin and comprises the main offshore oil reserves of Brazil. The exploration and production activities on its ocean are growing in accelerated pace, which means that oil spill contingency and search & rescue operations are likely to be more frequent. Therefore, ocean current reliable nowcasts and forecasts has become even more important for this region. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System was designed as an R&D project and its main objective was to establish and maintain a systematic oceanographic data collection for this region in order to study its ocean dynamics and improve regional ocean forecast through data assimilation. In the first three years of the project surface drifters, profiling floats and gliders were deployed to measure and monitor mainly the Brazil Current Western Boundary System, a highly unstable baroclinic current system, that present several meanders and mesoscale eddies activities. Throughout the development of the project, the team involved was able to learn how to operate the equipment, treat the collected data and use it to assimilate on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). After performing a one-year 4DVAR assimilation cycle (Fragoso et al., 2015) in which the forecasting skill was assessed, the system was considered mature enough to start producing ocean circulation forecasts for Santos Basin. It is the first time in Brazil that a regional ocean model using a 4DVAR data assimilation scheme was used to produce high resolution operational ocean current forecasts. This paper describes all the components of this forecasting system, its main results and discoveries with special focus on the Brazil Current System Transport and mesocale eddies dynamics and statistics.

  4. Methodology for Air Quality Forecast Downscaling from Regional- to Street-Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Hansen Saas, Bent; Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Lorenzen, Thomas; Weismann, Jakob

    2010-05-01

    The most serious air pollution events occur in cities where there is a combination of high population density and air pollution, e.g. from vehicles. The pollutants can lead to serious human health problems, including asthma, irritation of the lungs, bronchitis, pneumonia, decreased resistance to respiratory infections, and premature death. In particular air pollution is associated with increase in cardiovascular disease and lung cancer. In 2000 WHO estimated that between 2.5 % and 11 % of total annual deaths are caused by exposure to air pollution. However, European-scale air quality models are not suited for local forecasts, as their grid-cell is typically of the order of 5 to 10km and they generally lack detailed representation of urban effects. Two suites are used in the framework of the EC FP7 project MACC (Monitoring of Atmosphere Composition and Climate) to demonstrate how downscaling from the European MACC ensemble to local-scale air quality forecast will be carried out: one will illustrate capabilities for the city of Copenhagen (Denmark); the second will focus on the city of Bucharest (Romania). This work is devoted to the first suite, where methodological aspects of downscaling from regional (European/ Denmark) to urban scale (Copenhagen), and from the urban down to street scale. The first results of downscaling according to the proposed methodology are presented. The potential for downscaling of European air quality forecasts by operating urban and street-level forecast models is evaluated. This will bring a strong support for continuous improvement of the regional forecast modelling systems for air quality in Europe, and underline clear perspectives for the future regional air quality core and downstream services for end-users. At the end of the MACC project, requirements on "how-to-do" downscaling of European air-quality forecasts to the city and street levels with different approaches will be formulated.

  5. Search for the $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime$ and $\\Lambda_b^0\\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta$ decays with the LHCb detector

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; d'Argent, Philippe; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Bel, Lennaert; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Birnkraut, Alex; Bizzeti, Andrea; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Braun, Svende; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carniti, Paolo; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casanova Mohr, Raimon; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cavallero, Giovanni; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Dey, Biplab; Di Canto, Angelo; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dufour, Laurent; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferrari, Fabio; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fohl, Klaus; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gastaldi, Ugo; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Geraci, Angelo; Gerick, David; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Girard, Olivier Göran; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Humair, Thibaud; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Kenzie, Matthew; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kuonen, Axel Kevin; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Liu, Xuesong; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lucchesi, Donatella; Lucio Martinez, Miriam; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Maguire, Kevin; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Manning, Peter Michael; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathad, Abhijit; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Matthieu, Kecke; Mauri, Andrea; Maurin, Brice; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Mitzel, Dominik Stefan; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Janine; Müller, Katharina; Müller, Vanessa; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Ninci, Daniele; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Osorio Rodrigues, Bruno; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Aranzazu; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Pescatore, Luca; Petridis, Konstantinos; Petrolini, Alessandro; Petruzzo, Marco; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Piucci, Alessio; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Poikela, Tuomas; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Quagliani, Renato; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Lopez, Jairo Alexis; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santimaria, Marco; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmelzer, Timon; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schubiger, Maxime; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skillicorn, Ian; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Iwan Thomas; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Sterpka, Christopher Francis; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Tekampe, Tobias; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Trabelsi, Karim; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Weiden, Andreas; Whitehead, Mark; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Mark Richard James; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Williams, Timothy; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yu, Jiesheng; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang

    2015-09-01

    A search is performed for the as yet unobserved baryonic $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime$ and $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta$ decays with 3$fb^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment. The $B^0 \\rightarrow K_S^0 \\eta^\\prime$ decay is used as a normalisation channel. No significant signal is observed for the $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime$ decay. An upper limit is found on the branching fraction of $\\mathcal{B}(\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime)<3.1\\times10^{-6}$ at 90% confidence level. Evidence is seen for the presence of the $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta$ decay at the level of $3\\sigma$ significance, with a branching fraction $\\mathcal{B}(\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta)=(9.3^{+7.3}_{-5.3})\\times10^{-6}$.

  6. Search for the Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta ' and Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta decays with the LHCb detector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Affolder, A.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Cartelle, P. Alvarez; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; An, L.; Anderlini, L.; Anderson, J.; Andreotti, M.; Andrews, J. E.; Appleby, R. B.; Gutierrez, O. Aquines; Archilli, F.; d'Argent, P.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Baalouch, M.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Badalov, A.; Baesso, C.; Baldini, W.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Batozskaya, V.; Battista, V.; Bay, A.; Beaucourt, L.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Bel, L. J.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Pellegrino, A.; Tolk, S.

    2015-01-01

    A search is performed for the as yet unobserved baryonic Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta' and Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta decays with 3 fb(-1) of proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment. The B-0 -> K-s(0)eta' decay is used as a normalisation channel. No significant signal is observed

  7. Organometallic Trinuclear Niobium Cluster Complex in Aqueous Solution: Synthesis and Characterization of Niobium Complexes Containing Nb-3(mu-eta(2):eta(2) (perpendicular to)-NCCH3)(mu(2)-O)(3)(6+) Cluster Core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, H.A.N.; Hansson, G. K.; Kozlova, S.G.

    2010-01-01

    ) and a broad peak at 565 nm (epsilon similar to 335 M-1 cm(-1)) in the UV-visible region. It is electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR)-active (g = 1.98), but no hyperfine interaction with the Nb-93 nuclear spin (I = 9/2) was observed. The cyclic voltammogram of [Nb-3(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-NCCH3)O-3(H2O)(9)](6+) in 4...

  8. Study of high momentum eta' production in B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B

    2004-01-05

    The authors measure the branching fraction for the charmless semi-inclusive process B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s}, where the {eta}{prime} meson has a momentum in the range 2.0 to 2.7 GeV/c in the {Upsilon}(4S) center-of-mass frame and X{sub s} represents a system comprising a kaon and zero to four pions. They find {Beta}(B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s}) = (3.9 {+-} 0.8(stat) {+-} 0.5(syst) {+-} 0.8(model)) x 10{sup -4}. They also obtain the X{sub s} mass distribution and find that it tends to favor models predicting high masses.

  9. High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.

    2007-01-01

    Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

  10. Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according

  11. Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation

  12. Search for the weak decay eta ' -> K-+/-pi(-/+) and precise measurement of the branching fraction B(J/psi -> phi eta ')

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, Z.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Löhner, H.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Tiemens, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first search for the rare decay of eta' into K-+/- pi(-/+) in J/psi -> phi eta', using a sample of 1.3 x 10(9) J/psi events collected with the BESIII detector. No significant signal is observed, and the upper limit at the 90% confidence level for the ratio B(eta' -> K-+/-

  13. Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornilov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

  14. Symmetry Breaking and transition form factors from {eta} and {omega} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, Ankhi, E-mail: ankhi@iiti.ac.in [IIT Indore (India); Collaboration: WASA-at-COSY Collaboration

    2013-03-15

    The WASA-at-COSY collaboration uses meson production and the decays for the realization of the physics goals. Different rare decay channels of the mesons have to be analyzed in order to investigate symmetry breaking patterns. The combination of high intensity COSY (COoler SYnchrotron) beams and the WASA 4{pi} detector setup allows us to study the rare decay channels of light mesons. We are analyzing different symmetry breaking decay channels of {eta} mesons. One rare decay channel {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup + }{pi}{sup -} e{sup + }e{sup -} is being used to test CP violation. The asymmetry in the angle between the electron and pion planes can give insight about the degree of CP violation. The study of another rare decay channel {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup 0}e{sup + }e{sup -} is a test of C-parity violation. Our analysis of transition form factors of different mesons via conversion decays ({eta}{yields}{gamma}{gamma}{sup *}{yields}e{sup + }e{sup -} {gamma}, {omega}{yields}{pi}{sup 0}e{sup + }e{sup -}) provides insight about hadron structure. The transition form-factor of the {omega} meson provides information about the form factor in the time-like region where the two vector particles (the {omega} and the intermediate virtual photon) have an invariant mass squared will be discussed.

  15. Eta-expansion does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1996-01-01

    Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta-expansion, and a p......Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta...... across dynamic case expressions. This requirement precisely accounts for the nonstandard use of continuation-passing style encountered in partial evaluation. Eta-expansion thus acts as a uniform binding-time coercion between values and contexts, be they of function type, product type, or disjoint...

  16. Strong U{sub A}(1) breaking in radiative {eta} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takizawa, M.; Nemoto, Y.; Oka, M.

    1996-08-01

    We study the {eta} {yields} {gamma}{gamma}, {eta} {yields} {gamma}{mu}{sup -}{mu}{sup +} and {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup 0}{gamma}{gamma} decays using an extended three-flavor Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model that includes the `t Hooft instanton induced interaction. We find that the {eta}-meson mass, the {eta} {yields} {gamma}{gamma}, {eta} {yields} {gamma}{mu}{sup -}{mu}{sup +} and {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup 0}{gamma}{gamma} decay widths are in good agreement with the experimental values when the U{sub A}(1) breaking is strong and the flavor SU(3) singlet-octet mixing angle {theta} is about zero. The calculated {eta}{gamma}{gamma}{sup *} transition form factor has somewhat weaker dependence on the squared four-momentum of the virtual photon. The effects of the U{sub A}(1) anomaly on the scalar quark contents in the nucleon, the {Sigma}{sub {pi}N} and {Sigma}{sub KN} terms and the baryon number one and two systems are also studied. (author)

  17. ETA chemistry experience and assessment on CPP in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, K.K.; Lee, J.B.; Yoon, S.W.

    2002-01-01

    To reduce FAC of carbon steel in secondary system, water treatment chemistry was converted to ETA at Kori unit 1. Full scale tests to choose the optimum concentration of ETA were conducted and the evaluation after one cycle operation with ETA was also performed. Optimum concentration of ETA in final feed water was determined as 1.8 ppm. At this condition, iron concentration was reduced by 69.8% in final feed water and 69.7% in heater drain compared to ammonia-AVT. The amount of sludge removed from each steam generator was 11.3 kg, which was 88.2% lower than that of ammonia-AVT. With successful results of Kori unit 1, Applications of ETA were extended to other PWRs. Iron transport was found to be reduced significantly. Also, the output of electric power increased by 9 MWe at Young-Kwang unit 1. However, fouling of ion exchange resin in CPP was appeared. ETA appears to have a solvent function in the initial stage of ETA chemistry. Resin was restored when the fouling was removed with hot water and sodium bicarbonates. In particular, the MR type anion resin may be effective in resistance to fouling when ETA-chemistry is used. (authors)

  18. Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and

  19. THE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES ACCEPTANCE (ETA) PROGRAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behr-Andres, Christina B.

    2001-01-01

    The Environmental Technologies Acceptance (ETA) Program at the Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) is intended to advance the development, commercial acceptance, and timely deployment of selected private sector technologies for the cleanup of sites in the nuclear defense complex as well as the greater market. As shown in Table 1, this cooperative agreement funded by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) consists of three tasks: Technology Selection, Technology Development, and Technology Verification. As currently conceived, the ETA will address the needs of as many technologies as appropriate under its current 3-year term. This report covers activities during the first 6 months of the 3-year ETA program

  20. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-12-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

  1. Conservation of charge conjugation in {eta} meson decay; Etude de la conservation de la conjugaison de charge dans les desintegrations du meson {eta}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, A [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, 91 - Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1968-03-01

    The charge asymmetry in the {eta} meson decay is investigated. With 10709 events {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} the asymmetry is (0.3 {+-} 1.1) per cent. 1620 decays {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{gamma} give (1.5 {+-} 2.5) per cent. There is no evidence for charge conjugation violation in electro-magnetic or semi-strong interactions. (author) [French] La symetrie de charge est etudiee dans la desintegration du meson {eta}. Avec 10709 desintegrations {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} l'asymetrie obtenue est de (0.3 {+-} 1.1) pour cent. Les 1620 desintegrations {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{gamma} donnent (1.5 {+-} 2.5) pour cent. Il n'y a aucune evidence de violation de la conjugaison de charge dans les interactions electromagnetiques ou semi-fortes. (auteur)

  2. Software Users Manual (SUM): Extended Testability Analysis (ETA) Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maul, William A.; Fulton, Christopher E.

    2011-01-01

    This software user manual describes the implementation and use the Extended Testability Analysis (ETA) Tool. The ETA Tool is a software program that augments the analysis and reporting capabilities of a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) testability analysis software package called the Testability Engineering And Maintenance System (TEAMS) Designer. An initial diagnostic assessment is performed by the TEAMS Designer software using a qualitative, directed-graph model of the system being analyzed. The ETA Tool utilizes system design information captured within the diagnostic model and testability analysis output from the TEAMS Designer software to create a series of six reports for various system engineering needs. The ETA Tool allows the user to perform additional studies on the testability analysis results by determining the detection sensitivity to the loss of certain sensors or tests. The ETA Tool was developed to support design and development of the NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle. The diagnostic analysis provided by the ETA Tool was proven to be valuable system engineering output that provided consistency in the verification of system engineering requirements. This software user manual provides a description of each output report generated by the ETA Tool. The manual also describes the example diagnostic model and supporting documentation - also provided with the ETA Tool software release package - that were used to generate the reports presented in the manual

  3. The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the

  4. Study of etaπ+π- states in the rho'(1600) mass region photoproduced in the reaction γp->etaπ+π-p at photon energies of 20 to 70 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, M.; Davenport, M.; Flower, P.; Hutton, J.S.; Kumar, B.R.; Morris, J.A.G.; Morris, J.V.; Sharp, P.H.

    1986-01-01

    In diffractive photoproduction of etaπ + π - , the two-body substates etarho 0 and A 2 π are found to contribute significantly to the cross-section for etaπ + π masses below 2.4 GeV. From a spin-parity analysis the branching ratio, rho'(1600) -> etarho/rho'(1600) -> all, is determined to be 2 π component shows an enhacement around 1.7GeV. The spin-parity analysis indicates a probable contribution to this signal from exclusive photoproduction of the g(1690). (orig.)

  5. Nearly isentropic flow at sizeable $\\eta/s$ arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Kurkela, Aleksi; Wu, Bin

    Non-linearities in the harmonic spectra of hadron-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions provide evidence for the dynamical response to azimuthal spatial eccentricities. Here, we demonstrate within the framework of transport theory that even the mildest interaction correction to a picture of free-streaming particle distributions, namely the inclusion of one perturbatively weak interaction ("one-hit dynamics"), will generically give rise to all observed linear and non-linear structures. We further argue that transport theory naturally accounts within the range of its validity for realistic signal sizes of the linear and non-linear response coefficients observed in azimuthal momentum anisotropies with a large mean free path of the order of the system size in peripheral ($\\sim 50 \\%$ centrality) PbPb or central pPb collisions. The shear viscosity to entropy density ratio $\\eta/s$ of such a transport theory is approximately an order of magnitude larger than that of an almost perfect fluid. The phenomenological su...

  6. Study of the decays: B {yields} {eta}{sub c} K with the detector BaBar; Etude des desintegrations B {yields} {eta}{sub c} K avec le detecteur BaBar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langer, M

    2003-04-01

    This thesis presents a study of the exclusive decays B{sup {+-}} {yields} {eta}{sub c}K{sup {+-}} and B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{sub c}K{sub S}{sup 0} with {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sup {+-}}{pi}{sup {+-}}, {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} and {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}K{sup +}K{sup -}, and the measurement of their branching ratios. We use 20.7 fb{sup -1} of data collected by the experiment BABAR at the {gamma}(4S) resonance between October 1999 and October 2000. These data correspond to 23 million BB-bar pairs. In the decays {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sup {+-}}{pi}{sup {+-}} and {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} the observed signals are statistically significant; they allow to measure the branching ratios. Upper limits are set, in the channels with {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}K{sup +}K{sup -}: B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}{sub c}K{sup +}) * B({eta}{sub c}{yields}K{sup +}K{sup -}K{sup +}K{sup -}) < 5,6 x 10{sup -6} (90% confidence level); B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}{sub c}K{sup +}) * B({eta}{sub c}{yields}K{sup 0}K{sup -}{pi}{sup +}+c.c.) (52,8{+-}7,9{+-}7,3) x 10{sup -6}; B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}{sub c}K{sup +}) * B({eta}{sub c}{yields}K{sup +}K{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}) (15,5{+-}3,6{+-}2,5) x 10{sup -6}; B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}{sub c}K{sup 0}) * B({eta}{sub c}{yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}K{sup +}K{sup -}) < 2,3 x 10{sup -6} (90% confidence level); B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}{sub c}K{sup 0}) * B({eta}{sub c}{yields}K{sup 0}K{sup -}{pi}{sup +}+c.c.) (36,8{+-}11,6{+-}6,0)x 10{sup -6}; B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}{sub c}K{sup 0}) * B({eta}{sub c}{yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}) = (11,3{+-}5,1{+-}2,4) x 10{sup -6}; where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The average of the branching ratio of {eta}{sub c} {yields}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sup {+-}}{pi}{sup {+-}} and {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} for the channels B{sup {+-}} {yields} {eta}{sub c}K{sup {+-}} and B{sup 0} {yields} {eta

  7. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  8. New meson-nucleus dynamics from studies of (π,eta) and (π,2π) reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.C.

    1985-01-01

    The production of eta particles by pion collisions with nucleons, the reaction with the lowest genuine two-body reaction threshold, is discussed. For simple kinematic reasons, the threshold for nuclear pionic eta production reactions is much lower than 661 MeV. Using an off-shell model for the eta production amplitudes, theoretical cross sections are given for the reaction 3 He(π - ,eta) 3 H(g.s.) at 620 and 720 MeV/c. Pion-induced single pion production is then treated. Because the basic cross sections for this reaction becomes comparable to the pion-nucleon elastic scattering cross section at pion kinetic energies of about 600 MeV and exceeds the elastic scattering cross section at 1 GeV, it is believed that the (π,2π) reaction in complex nuclei represents a powerful tool to study nuclei at pion energies above the resonance region. Theoretical cross section ratios are given for 40 Ca at three different pion energies accessible at LAMPF. Also, the corresponding cross-section ratios are presented on a free proton. 14 refs., 7 figs

  9. A measurement of the eta' spin parity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerrada, M.; Wagner, F.; Chaloupka, V.; Hemingway, R.J.; Holmgren, S.O.; Losty, M.J.; Loverre, P.F.; Marzano, F.; Blokzijl, R.; Jongejans, B.; Massaro, G.G.G.; Schotanus, D.J.; Tiecke, H.G.; Timmermans, J.J.M.; Foster, B.; McDowell, W.L.

    1977-01-01

    The spin parity of the eta'(958) is studied in the reaction K - p→eta'Λ at 4.2 GeV/c, using bubble chamber data with a statistical sensitivity of 128 events/μb. The data unambiguously prefer the 0 - assignment. (Auth.)

  10. Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  11. Measurement of the Exclusive Branching Fractions B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K*{sup 0} and B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K*{sup +}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2004-02-12

    The authors present the results of searches for B decays to the two charmless two-body final states B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K*{sup 0} and B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K*{sup +}, based on 20.7 fb{sup -1} of data collected in 1999 and 2000 with the BABAR detector at PEP-II. They find the branching fractions {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K*{sup 0}) = (19.8 {sub -5.6}{sup +6.5} {+-} 1.7) x 10{sup -6} and {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K*{sup +}) = (22.1 {sub -9.2}{sup +11.1} {+-} 3.3) x 10{sup -6}, where the first error quoted is the statistical and the second systematic.

  12. Observation of the decay $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\phi$ and evidence for $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\pi^+ \\pi^- $ at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Martin, Morgan Leni

    2017-01-01

    A study of $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\phi$ and $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\pi^+ \\pi^-$ decays is performed using $pp$ collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb, collected with the LHCb detector in Run 1 of the LHC. The observation of the decay $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\phi$ is reported, where the $\\eta_c$ meson is reconstructed in the $p\\bar p$, $K^+K^-\\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\pi^+\\pi^-\\pi^+\\pi^-$ and $K^+K^-K^+K^-$ decay modes and the $\\phi(1020)$ in the $K^+ K^-$ decay mode. The decay $B^0_s \\to J/\\psi \\phi$ is used as a normalisation channel. Evidence is also reported for the decay $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\pi^+\\pi^-$, where the $\\eta_c$ meson is reconstructed in the $p\\bar p$ decay mode, using the decay $B^0_s \\to J/\\psi \\pi^+ \\pi^-$ as a normalisation channel. The measured branching fractions are \\begin{eqnarray*} {\\mathcal B (B^{0}_{s} \\to \\eta_{c} \\phi)} &=& \\left(5.01 \\pm 0.53 \\pm 0.27 \\pm 0.63 \\right) \\times 10^{-4} \\,, \

  13. A measurement of the eta ' spin parity

    CERN Document Server

    Cerrada, M; Chaloupka, V; Foster, B; Hemingway, R J; Holmgren, S O; Jongejans, B; Losty, Michael J; Loverre, P F; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McDowell, W L; Schotanus, D J; Tiecke, H G; Timmermans, J; Wagner, F

    1977-01-01

    The spin parity of the eta '(958) is studied in the reaction K/sup -/p to eta ' Lambda at 4.2 GeV/c, using bubble chamber data with a statistical sensitivity of 128 events/ mu b. The data unambiguously prefer the 0/sup -/ assignment. (18 refs).

  14. Resolution, Scales and Predictability: Is High Resolution Detrimental To Predictability At Extended Forecast Times?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The traditional views hold that high-resolution limited area models (LAMs) down- scale large-scale lateral boundary information, and that predictability of small scales is short. Inspection of various rms fits/errors has contributed to these views. It would follow that the skill of LAMs should visibly deteriorate compared to that of their driver models at more extended forecast times. The limited area Eta Model at NCEP has an additional handicap of being driven by LBCs of the previous Avn global model run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. This should make its relative skill compared to that of the Avn deteriorate even faster. These views are challenged by various Eta results including rms fits to raobs out to 84 h. It is argued that it is the largest scales that contribute the most to the skill of the Eta relative to that of the Avn.

  15. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  16. Nucleotide sequences of immunoglobulin eta genes of chimpanzee and orangutan: DNA molecular clock and hominoid evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakoyama, Y.; Hong, K.J.; Byun, S.M.; Hisajima, H.; Ueda, S.; Yaoita, Y.; Hayashida, H.; Miyata, T.; Honjo, T.

    1987-02-01

    To determine the phylogenetic relationships among hominoids and the dates of their divergence, the complete nucleotide sequences of the constant region of the immunoglobulin eta-chain (C/sub eta1/) genes from chimpanzee and orangutan have been determined. These sequences were compared with the human eta-chain constant-region sequence. A molecular clock (silent molecular clock), measured by the degree of sequence divergence at the synonymous (silent) positions of protein-encoding regions, was introduced for the present study. From the comparison of nucleotide sequences of ..cap alpha../sub 1/-antitrypsin and ..beta..- and delta-globulin genes between humans and Old World monkeys, the silent molecular clock was calibrated: the mean evolutionary rate of silent substitution was determined to be 1.56 x 10/sup -9/ substitutions per site per year. Using the silent molecular clock, the mean divergence dates of chimpanzee and orangutan from the human lineage were estimated as 6.4 +/- 2.6 million years and 17.3 +/- 4.5 million years, respectively. It was also shown that the evolutionary rate of primate genes is considerably slower than those of other mammalian genes.

  17. Further study of eta'→μ+μ-γ decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dzhelyadin, R.I.; Golovkin, S.V.; Kakauridze, D.V.

    1980-01-01

    The study of rare electromagnetic decay eta'→μ + μ - γ has been continued. The μ + μ - γ effective mass spectrum is presented. The branching ratio BR(eta'→μ + μ - γ)=(8.9+-2.4)x10 -5 , has been measured. The eta' meson electromagnetic form-factor has been defined. The experimental results are in agreement with the vector dominance model

  18. Electromagnetic corrections in {eta}{yields}3{pi} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ditsche, Christoph; Kubis, Bastian [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany); Meissner, Ulf G. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institut fuer Kernphysik (Theorie), Institute for Advanced Simulations, and Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Juelich (Germany)

    2009-03-15

    We re-evaluate the electromagnetic corrections to {eta}{yields}3{pi} decays at next-to-leading order in the chiral expansion, arguing that effects of order e{sup 2}(m{sub u}-m{sub d}) disregarded so far are not negligible compared to other contributions of order e {sup 2} times a light-quark mass. Despite the appearance of the Coulomb pole in {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} and cusps in {eta}{yields}3{pi}{sup 0}, the overall corrections remain small. (orig.)

  19. He II {lambda}4686 IN {eta} CARINAE: COLLAPSE OF THE WIND-WIND COLLISION REGION DURING PERIASTRON PASSAGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A. [Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Rua do Matao 1226, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo 05508-900 (Brazil); Arias, J. I. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de La Serena, Av. Cisternas 1200 Norte, La Serena (Chile); De Araujo, F. X.; Borges Fernandes, M.; Pereira, C. B. [Observatorio Nacional, Rua General Jose Cristino 77, Sao Cristovao, Rio de Janeiro 20921-400 (Brazil); Barba, R. H.; Gonzalez, J. F. [Instituto de Ciencias Astronomicas, de la Tierra, y del Espacio (ICATE-CONICET), Avenida Espana Sur 1512, J5402DSP San Juan (Argentina); Corcoran, M. F. [CRESST and X-ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Gamen, R. C.; Solivella, G. R. [Facultad de Ciencias Astronomicas y Geofisicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Paseo del Bosque s/n, La Plata, BA, B1900FWA (Argentina); Fraga, L. [Southern Observatory for Astrophysical Research, Colina El Pino s/n, Casilla 603, La Serena (Chile); Groh, J. H. [Max-Planck-Institute fuer Radioastronomie, Auf dem Huegel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Marshall, J. L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843-4242 (United States); McGregor, P. J.; Nicholls, D. C.; Parkin, E. R. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics (RSAA), Mount Stromlo Observatory, Cotter Road, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Morrell, N.; Phillips, M. M., E-mail: mairan@astro.iag.usp.br [Las Campanas Observatory, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, Casilla 601, La Serena (Chile); and others

    2012-02-10

    The periodic spectroscopic events in {eta} Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of {eta} Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II {lambda}4686 emission line (L {approx} 310 L{sub Sun }) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II {lambda}4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II {lambda}4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the 'surface' of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

  20. He II lambda-4686 in Eta Carinae: Collapse of the Wind-Wind Collision Region During Periastron Passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A.; Arias, J. I.; DeAraujo, F. X.; Barba, R. H.; Corcoran, M. F.; Fernandes, M. Borges; Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Fraga, L.; Gamen, R. C.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The periodic spectroscopic events in Eta Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events we performed a dense monitoring of Eta Carinae with 5 Southern telescopes during the 2009 low excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II lambda-4686 emission line (L approx 310 solar L) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the wind-wind collision (WWC) region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II lambda-4686 light-curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II lambda-4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

  1. Forecasting the daily electricity consumption in the Moscow region using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, V. V.; Kryanev, A. V.; Osetrov, E. S.

    2017-07-01

    In [1] we demonstrated the possibility in principle for short-term forecasting of daily volumes of passenger traffic in the Moscow metro with the help of artificial neural networks. During training and predicting, a set of the factors that affect the daily passenger traffic in the subway is passed to the input of the neural network. One of these factors is the daily power consumption in the Moscow region. Therefore, to predict the volume of the passenger traffic in the subway, we must first to solve the problem of forecasting the daily energy consumption in the Moscow region.

  2. Eta-Expansion Does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1995-01-01

    Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta-expansion, and a p......Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta...... across dynamic case expressions. This requirement precisely accounts for the nonstandard use of continuation-passing style encountered in partial evaluation. Eta-expansion thus acts as a uniform binding-time coercion between values and contexts, be they of function type, product type, or disjoint......-expansion, and a popular transformation called “The Trick.” We provide a unified view of these binding-time improvements, from a typing perspective. Just as a proper treatment of product values in partial evaluation requires partially static values, a proper treatment of disjoint sums requires moving static contexts...

  3. Form factors of {eta}{sub c} in light-front quark model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geng, Chao-Qiang [Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, College of Mathematics and Physics, Chongqing (China); National Center for Theoretical Sciences, Physics Division, Hsinchu (China); National Tsing Hua University, Department of Physics, Hsinchu (China); Lih, Chong-Chung [Shu-Zen College of Medicine and Management, Department of Optometry, Kaohsiung Hsien (China); National Center for Theoretical Sciences, Physics Division, Hsinchu (China); National Tsing Hua University, Department of Physics, Hsinchu (China)

    2013-08-15

    We study the form factors of the {eta}{sub c} meson in the light-front quark model. We explicitly show that the transition form factor of {eta}{sub c} {yields} {gamma}{sup *}{gamma} as a function of the momentum transfer is consistent with the experimental data by the BaBar collaboration, while the decay constant of {eta}{sub c} is found to be f{sub {eta}{sub c}} = 230.5{sup +52.2}{sub -61.0} and 303.6{sup +115.2}{sub -116.4} MeV for {eta}{sub c} {proportional_to} c anti c by using two {eta}{sub c} {yields} {gamma}{gamma} decay widths of 5.3 {+-} 0.5 and 7.2 {+-} 2.1 keV, given by Particle Data Group and Lattice QCD calculation, respectively. (orig.)

  4. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kukkonen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

  5. Invariant-mass distributions for the pp{yields}pp{eta} reaction at Q=10 MeV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskal, P.; Czerwinski, E.; Klaja, J.; Klaja, P.; Krzemien, W. [Jagellonian University, Institute of Physics, Cracow (Poland); Research Center Juelich, Nuclear Physics Institute, Juelich (Germany); Czyzykiewicz, R. [Jagellonian University, Institute of Physics, Cracow (Poland); University of Silesia, Institute of Physics, Katowice (Poland); Gil, D.; Jarczyk, L.; Kamys, B.; Silarski, M.; Smyrski, J.; Zdebik, J.; Zielinski, M.J. [Jagellonian University, Institute of Physics, Cracow (Poland); Grzonka, D.; Oelert, W.; Ritman, J.; Sefzick, T.; Wuestner, P. [Research Center Juelich, Nuclear Physics Institute, Juelich (Germany); Khoukaz, A.; Taeschner, A.; Zipper, W. [Westfaelische Wilhelms-Universitaet, IKP, Muenster (Germany); Siemaszko, M. [University of Silesia, Institute of Physics, Katowice (Poland); Wolke, M. [SE-751 05 Uppsala University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2010-02-15

    Proton-proton and proton-{eta} invariant-mass distributions and the total cross-section for the pp{yields}pp{eta} reaction have been determined near the threshold at an excess energy of Q=10 MeV. The experiment has been conducted using the COSY-11 detector setup and the cooler synchrotron COSY. The determined invariant-mass spectra reveal significant enhancements in the region of low proton-proton relative momenta, similarly as observed previously at higher excess energies of Q=15.5 MeV and Q=40 MeV. (orig.)

  6. The use of satellite data assimilation methods in regional NWP for solar irradiance forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurzrock, Frederik; Cros, Sylvain; Chane-Ming, Fabrice; Potthast, Roland; Linguet, Laurent; Sébastien, Nicolas

    2016-04-01

    As an intermittent energy source, the injection of solar power into electricity grids requires irradiance forecasting in order to ensure grid stability. On time scales of more than six hours ahead, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is recognized as the most appropriate solution. However, the current representation of clouds in NWP models is not sufficiently precise for an accurate forecast of solar irradiance at ground level. Dynamical downscaling does not necessarily increase the quality of irradiance forecasts. Furthermore, incorrectly simulated cloud evolution is often the cause of inaccurate atmospheric analyses. In non-interconnected tropical areas, the large amplitudes of solar irradiance variability provide abundant solar yield but present significant problems for grid safety. Irradiance forecasting is particularly important for solar power stakeholders in these regions where PV electricity penetration is increasing. At the same time, NWP is markedly more challenging in tropic areas than in mid-latitudes due to the special characteristics of tropical homogeneous convective air masses. Numerous data assimilation methods and strategies have evolved and been applied to a large variety of global and regional NWP models in the recent decades. Assimilating data from geostationary meteorological satellites is an appropriate approach. Indeed, models converting radiances measured by satellites into cloud properties already exist. Moreover, data are available at high temporal frequencies, which enable a pertinent cloud cover evolution modelling for solar energy forecasts. In this work, we present a survey of different approaches which aim at improving cloud cover forecasts using the assimilation of geostationary meteorological satellite data into regional NWP models. Various approaches have been applied to a variety of models and satellites and in different regions of the world. Current methods focus on the assimilation of cloud-top information, derived from infrared

  7. Measurement of the $\\eta_c (1S)$ production cross-section in proton-proton collisions via the decay $\\eta_c (1S) \\rightarrow p \\bar{p}$

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adeva, Bernardo; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Bjørnstad, Pål Marius; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brambach, Tobias; Bressieux, Joël; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Brown, Henry; Bursche, Albert; Busetto, Giovanni; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Ciba, Krzystof; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Graverini, Elena; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gaspar, Clara; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gavrilov, Gennadii; Geraci, Angelo; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, Vladimir; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hunt, Philip; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jaton, Pierre; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kaballo, Michael; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kozlinskiy, Alexandr; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leo, Sabato; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lopez-March, Neus; Lowdon, Peter; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martens, Aurelien; Martín Sánchez, Alexandra; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Moggi, Niccolò; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Oggero, Serena; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Orlandea, Marius; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Arantza; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pazos Alvarez, Antonio; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perez Trigo, Eliseo; Perret, Pascal; Perrin-Terrin, Mathieu; Pescatore, Luca; Pesen, Erhan; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrie, Mauro; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Seco, Marcos; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Sparkes, Ailsa; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Subbiah, Vijay Kartik; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szilard, Daniela; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; Voss, Helge; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wicht, Jean; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilschut, Hans; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang; Zvyagin, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    The production of the $\\eta_c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p \\bar{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5$ GeV/c. The cross-section for prompt production of $\\eta_c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt $J/\\psi$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\\sigma_{\\eta_c (1S)}/\\sigma_{J/\\psi} = 1.74 \\pm 0.29 \\pm 0.28 \\pm 0.18 _{B}$ at a centre-of-mass energy $\\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$, and $\\sigma_{\\eta_c (1S)}/\\sigma_{J/\\psi} = 1.60 \\pm 0.29 \\pm 0.25 \\pm 0.17 _{B}$ at $\\sqrt{s} = 8$ TeV using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$. The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\\eta_c (1S)$ and $J/\\psi$ decays to the $p \\bar{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of $b$-hadron decays into $\\eta_c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be $B ( b \\rightarrow \\eta_c X ) = (4.88 \\pm 0.64 \\pm ...

  8. The wind forecasting improvement project. Description and results from the Southern study region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Jeffrey [AWS Truepower LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Benjamin, Stan; Wilczak, James [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC and Boulder, CO (United States)] [and others

    2012-07-01

    The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) is a multi-year U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sponsored study whose main purpose is to demonstrate the scientific and economic benefits of additional atmospheric observations and model enhancements on wind energy production forecasts. WFIP covers two geographical regions of the U.S.: (1) the upper Great Plains, or Northern Study Area, and (2) most of Texas-the Southern Study Area. The Southern campaign is being led by AWS Truepower LLC, and includes a team of private, government, and academic partners with collective experience and expertise in all facets required to ensure a successful completion of the project. In addition presenting a summary of the state-of-the-art forecasting techniques used and phenomena-based analysis mentioned above, a brief synopsis of how ''lessons learned'' from the WFIP Southern Study Area can be articulated and applied to other wind resource regions will be described. (orig.)

  9. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojie; Zhao, Luqiang; Delgado-Tellez, Ricardo; Bao, Hongjun

    2018-03-01

    Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs) of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  10. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  11. Time series regression and ARIMAX for forecasting currency flow at Bank Indonesia in Sulawesi region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suharsono, Agus; Suhartono, Masyitha, Aulia; Anuravega, Arum

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the study is to forecast the outflow and inflow of currency at Indonesian Central Bank or Bank Indonesia (BI) in Sulawesi Region. The currency outflow and inflow data tend to have a trend pattern which is influenced by calendar variation effects. Therefore, this research focuses to apply some forecasting methods that could handle calendar variation effects, i.e. Time Series Regression (TSR) and ARIMAX models, and compare the forecast accuracy with ARIMA model. The best model is selected based on the lowest of Root Mean Squares Errors (RMSE) at out-sample dataset. The results show that ARIMA is the best model for forecasting the currency outflow and inflow at South Sulawesi. Whereas, the best model for forecasting the currency outflow at Central Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi, and for forecasting the currency inflow at South Sulawesi and North Sulawesi is TSR. Additionally, ARIMAX is the best model for forecasting the currency outflow at North Sulawesi. Hence, the results show that more complex models do not neccessary yield more accurate forecast than the simpler one.

  12. Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminyavari, Saleh; Saghafian, Bahram; Delavar, Majid

    2018-04-01

    The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous (yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008-16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation. The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation, NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations. Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.

  13. LOAD FORECASTING FOR POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND OPERATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AT AL BATINAH REGION OMAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HUSSEIN A. ABDULQADER

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Load forecasting is essential part for the power system planning and operation. In this paper the modeling and design of artificial neural network for load forecasting is carried out in a particular region of Oman. Neural network approach helps to reduce the problem associated with conventional method and has the advantage of learning directly from the historical data. The neural network here uses data such as past load; weather information like humidity and temperatures. Once the neural network is trained for the past set of data it can give a prediction of future load. This reduces the capital investment reducing the equipments to be installed. The actual data are taken from the Mazoon Electrical Company, Oman. The data of load for the year 2007, 2008 and 2009 are collected for a particular region called Al Batinah in Oman and trained using neural networks to forecast the future. The main objective is to forecast the amount of electricity needed for better load distribution in the areas of this region in Oman. The load forecasting is done for the year 2010 and is validated for the accuracy.

  14. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  15. Construction of the migration flows forecasting into Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Aleksandrovich Tarasyev

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a dynamic model that can predict the dynamics of migration flows between source countries and host regions, as well as the dynamics of wage levels there. The model is constructed within the framework of neoclassical economics and human capital theory in continuous time. Thanks to liberalization of migration policy in Russia in 2007, the model could be successfully employed to Russian regions and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS, which have visa-free entry regulations with the Russian Federation. Employing the model on statistical data, we forecast the number and origin composition of foreign labor force from the CIS into Russian regions for 2010-2016. The purpose of our further research is to classify migrants by skills

  16. A search for rare and forbidden decays of {eta}-meson with GAMS-4{pi}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Binon, F. [Universite Libre de Bruxelles, CP 229, B-1050 Brussels (Belgium); Blik, A. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Gorin, A. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Donskov, S. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Inaba, S. [National Laboratory for High Energy Physics - KEK, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan); Kolosov, V. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Ladygin, M. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Lednev, A. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Lishin, V. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Manuilov, I. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Mikhailov, Yu. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Pegneux, J.P. [Laboratoire d' Annecy de Physique des Particules, F-74019 Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Polyakov, V. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Samoylenko, V. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Sobol, A. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Stroot, J.P. [Universite Libre de Bruxelles, CP 229, B-1050 Brussels (Belgium); Sugonyaev, V. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation); Takamatsu, K. [National Laboratory for High Energy Physics - KEK, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan); Tsuru, T. [National Laboratory for High Energy Physics - KEK, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan); Khaustov, G. [Institute for High Energy Physics, 142281, Protvino (Russian Federation)

    2006-12-15

    A search for the rare and forbidden neutral decays of {eta}-meson with the GAMS-4{pi} setup has been performed. The charge-exchange reaction at 32.5 GeV/c was used as a source of 3.7-bar 10{sup 6}{eta}-mesons. At the 90% confidence level the following upper limits were obtained: BR({eta}->3{gamma})<1.6-bar 10{sup -4}, BR({eta}->4{gamma})<2.8-bar 10{sup -4}, BR({eta}->{pi}{sup o}{pi}{sup o})<3.5-bar 10{sup -4}, BR({eta}->{pi}{sup o}{pi}{sup o}{gamma})<1.7-bar 10{sup -3}, BR({eta}->{pi}{sup o}{pi}{sup o}{gamma}{gamma})<4.0-bar 10{sup -3}, BR({eta}->3{pi}{sup o}{gamma})<2.4-bar 10{sup -4}, BR({eta}->4{pi}{sup o})<2.0-bar 10{sup -5}.

  17. Improving Regional Forecast by Assimilating Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles into WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2009-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background type, and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are derived from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators were used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. The analyses were then used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impacts of AIRS profiles on forecast were assessed against verifying NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

  18. Formation of the $\\eta_c$ in Two-Photon Collisions at LEP

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M.; Adriani, O.; Aguilar-Benitez, M.; Alcaraz, J.; Alemanni, G.; Allaby, J.; Aloisio, A.; Alviggi, M.G.; Ambrosi, G.; Anderhub, H.; Andreev, Valery P.; Angelescu, T.; Anselmo, F.; Arefev, A.; Azemoon, T.; Aziz, T.; Bagnaia, P.; Baksay, L.; Balandras, A.; Ball, R.C.; Banerjee, S.; Banerjee, Sw.; Barczyk, A.; Barillere, R.; Barone, L.; Bartalini, P.; Basile, M.; Battiston, R.; Bay, A.; Becattini, F.; Becker, U.; Behner, F.; Berdugo, J.; Berges, P.; Bertucci, B.; Betev, B.L.; Bhattacharya, S.; Biasini, M.; Biland, A.; Blaising, J.J.; Blyth, S.C.; Bobbink, G.J.; Bohm, A.; Boldizsar, L.; Borgia, B.; Bourilkov, D.; Bourquin, M.; Braccini, S.; Branson, J.G.; Brigljevic, V.; Brochu, F.; Buffini, A.; Buijs, A.; Burger, J.D.; Burger, W.J.; Busenitz, J.; Button, A.; Cai, X.D.; Campanelli, Mario; Capell, M.; Cara Romeo, G.; Carlino, G.; Cartacci, A.M.; Casaus, J.; Castellini, G.; Cavallari, F.; Cavallo, N.; Cecchi, C.; Cerrada, M.; Cesaroni, F.; Chamizo, M.; Chang, Y.H.; Chaturvedi, U.K.; Chemarin, M.; Chen, A.; Chen, G.; Chen, G.M.; Chen, H.F.; Chen, H.S.; Chereau, X.; Chiefari, G.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Civinini, C.; Clare, I.; Clare, R.; Coignet, G.; Colijn, A.P.; Colino, N.; Costantini, S.; Cotorobai, F.; Cozzoni, B.; de la Cruz, B.; Csilling, A.; Cucciarelli, S.; Dai, T.S.; van Dalen, J.A.; D'Alessandro, R.; de Asmundis, R.; Deglon, P.; Degre, A.; Deiters, K.; Della Volpe, D.; Denes, P.; de Notaristefani, F.; De Salvo, A.; Diemoz, M.; van Dierendonck, D.; Di Lodovico, F.; Dionisi, C.; Dittmar, M.; Dominguez, A.; Doria, A.; Dova, M.T.; Duchesneau, D.; Dufournand, D.; Duinker, P.; Duran, I.; El Mamouni, H.; Engler, A.; Eppling, F.J.; Erne, F.C.; Extermann, P.; Fabre, M.; Faccini, R.; Falagan, M.A.; Falciano, S.; Favara, A.; Fay, J.; Fedin, O.; Felcini, M.; Ferguson, T.; Ferroni, F.; Fesefeldt, H.; Fiandrini, E.; Field, J.H.; Filthaut, F.; Fisher, P.H.; Fisk, I.; Forconi, G.; Fredj, L.; Freudenreich, K.; Furetta, C.; Galaktionov, Iouri; Ganguli, S.N.; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gataullin, M.; Gau, S.S.; Gentile, S.; Gheordanescu, N.; Giagu, S.; Gong, Z.F.; Grenier, Gerald Jean; Grimm, O.; Grunewald, M.W.; van Gulik, R.; Gupta, V.K.; Gurtu, A.; Gutay, L.J.; Haas, D.; Hasan, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hebbeker, T.; Herve, Alain; Hidas, P.; Hirschfelder, J.; Hofer, H.; Holzner, G.; Hoorani, H.; Hou, S.R.; Iashvili, I.; Jin, B.N.; Jones, Lawrence W.; de Jong, P.; Josa-Mutuberria, I.; Khan, R.A.; Kamrad, D.; Kaur, M.; Kienzle-Focacci, M.N.; Kim, D.; Kim, D.H.; Kim, J.K.; Kim, S.C.; Kirkby, Jasper; Kiss, D.; Kittel, W.; Klimentov, A.; Konig, A.C.; Kopp, A.; Korolko, I.; Koutsenko, V.; Kraber, M.; Kraemer, R.W.; Krenz, W.; Kunin, A.; Lacentre, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Laktineh, I.; Landi, G.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Laurikainen, P.; Lavorato, A.; Lebeau, M.; Lebedev, A.; Lebrun, P.; Lecomte, P.; Lecoq, P.; Le Coultre, P.; Lee, H.J.; Le Goff, J.M.; Leiste, R.; Leonardi, Emanuele; Levtchenko, P.; Li, C.; Lin, C.H.; Lin, W.T.; Linde, F.L.; Lista, L.; Liu, Z.A.; Lohmann, W.; Longo, E.; Lu, Y.S.; Lubelsmeyer, K.; Luci, C.; Luckey, David; Lugnier, L.; Luminari, L.; Lustermann, W.; Ma, W.G.; Maity, M.; Malgeri, L.; Malinin, A.; Mana, C.; Mangeol, D.; Marchesini, P.; Marian, G.; Martin, J.P.; Marzano, F.; Massaro, G.G.G.; Mazumdar, K.; McNeil, R.R.; Mele, S.; Merola, L.; Meschini, M.; Metzger, W.J.; von der Mey, M.; Migani, D.; Mihul, A.; Milcent, H.; Mirabelli, G.; Mnich, J.; Mohanty, G.B.; Molnar, P.; Monteleoni, B.; Moulik, T.; Muanza, G.S.; Muheim, F.; Muijs, A.J.M.; Napolitano, M.; Nessi-Tedaldi, F.; Newman, H.; Niessen, T.; Nisati, A.; Kluge, Hannelies; Oh, Y.D.; Organtini, G.; Ostonen, R.; Palomares, C.; Pandoulas, D.; Paoletti, S.; Paolucci, P.; Park, H.K.; Park, I.H.; Pascale, G.; Passaleva, G.; Patricelli, S.; Paul, Thomas Cantzon; Pauluzzi, M.; Paus, C.; Pauss, F.; Peach, D.; Pedace, M.; Pei, Y.J.; Pensotti, S.; Perret-Gallix, D.; Petersen, B.; Piccolo, D.; Pieri, M.; Piroue, P.A.; Pistolesi, E.; Plyaskin, V.; Pohl, M.; Pojidaev, V.; Postema, H.; Pothier, J.; Produit, N.; Prokofev, D.O.; Prokofev, D.; Quartieri, J.; Rahal-Callot, G.; Rahaman, M.A.; Raja, N.; Ramelli, R.; Rancoita, P.G.; Raven, G.; Razis, P.; Ren, D.; Rescigno, M.; Reucroft, S.; van Rhee, T.; Riemann, S.; Riles, Keith; Robohm, A.; Rodin, J.; Roe, B.P.; Romero, L.; Rosca, A.; Rosier-Lees, S.; Rubio, J.A.; Ruschmeier, D.; Rykaczewski, H.; Sarkar, S.; Salicio, J.; Sanchez, E.; Sanders, M.P.; Sarakinos, M.E.; Schafer, C.; Schegelsky, V.; Schmidt-Kaerst, S.; Schmitz, D.; Schopper, H.; Schotanus, D.J.; Schwenke, J.; Schwering, G.; Sciacca, C.; Sciarrino, D.; Seganti, A.; Servoli, L.; Shevchenko, S.; Shivarov, N.; Shoutko, V.; Shumilov, E.; Shvorob, A.; Siedenburg, T.; Son, D.; Smith, B.; Spillantini, P.; Steuer, M.; Stickland, D.P.; Stone, A.; Stone, H.; Stoyanov, B.; Straessner, A.; Sudhakar, K.; Sultanov, G.; Sun, L.Z.; Suter, H.; Swain, J.D.; Szillasi, Z.; Tang, X.W.; Tauscher, L.; Taylor, L.; Timmermans, Charles; Ting, S.C.C.; Ting, S.M.; Tonwar, S.C.; Toth, J.; Tully, C.; Tung, K.L.; Uchida, Y.; Ulbricht, J.; Valente, E.; Vesztergombi, G.; Vetlitsky, I.; Vicinanza, D.; Viertel, G.; Villa, S.; Vivargent, M.; Vlachos, S.; Vodopianov, I.; Vogel, H.; Vogt, H.; Vorobev, I.; Vorobov, A.A.; Vorvolakos, A.; Wadhwa, M.; Wallraff, W.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.L.; Wang, Z.M.; Weber, A.; Weber, M.; Wienemann, P.; Wilkens, H.; Wu, S.X.; Wynhoff, S.; Xia, L.; Xu, Z.Z.; Yang, B.Z.; Yang, C.G.; Yang, H.J.; Yang, M.; Ye, J.B.; Yeh, S.C.; You, J.M.; Zalite, A.; Zalite, Yu.; Zhang, Z.P.; Zhu, G.Y.; Zhu, R.Y.; Zichichi, A.; Ziegler, F.; Zilizi, G.; Zoller, M.

    1999-01-01

    The two-photon width $\\Gamma_{\\gamma\\gamma}$ of the $\\eta_{\\mathrm{c}}$ meson has been measured with the L3 detector at LEP. The $\\eta_{\\mathrm{c}}$ is studied in the decay modes $\\pi^+\\pi^-\\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\pi^+\\pi^-$K$^+$K$^-$, K$_s^0$K$^\\pm\\pi^\\mp$, K$^+$K$^-\\pi^{0}$, $\\pi^+\\pi^-\\eta$, $\\pi^+\\pi^-\\eta'$, and $\\rho^+\\rho^-$ using an integrated luminosity of 140 pb$^{-1}$ at $\\sqrt{s} \\simeq 91$ GeV and of 52 pb$^{-1}$ at $\\sqrt{s} \\simeq 183$ GeV. The result is $\\Gamma_{\\gamma\\gamma}(\\eta_{\\mathrm{c}}) = 6.9 \\pm 1.7 \\mbox{(stat.)} \\pm 0.8 \\mbox{(sys.)} \\pm 2.0$(BR) keV. The $Q^2$ dependence of the $\\eta_{\\mathrm{c}}$ cross section is studied for $Q^2 < 9$ GeV$^{2}$. It is found to be better described by a Vector Meson Dominance model form factor with a J-pole than with a $\\rho$-pole. In addition, a signal of $29 \\pm 11$ events is observed at the $\\chi_{\\mathrm{c}0}$ mass. Upper limits for the two-photon widths of the $\\chi_{\\mathrm{c}0}$, $\\chi_{\\mathrm{c}2}$, and $\\eta_{\\mathrm{c}}'$ are also given.

  19. Inclusive high-psub(T) ω0 and eta' production at the ISR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diakonou, M.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Resvanis, L.K.; Filippas, T.A.; Fokitis, E.; Trakkas, C.; Cnops, A.M.; Iwata, S.; Palmer, R.B.; Rahm, D.C.

    1980-01-01

    The inclusive production cross section of ω 0 and eta' were measured at transverse momenta of 3 to 7 GeV/c at 90 0 in the centre of mass. The ω 0 /π 0 and eta'/π 0 production ratios were found to be 0.87 +- 0.17 and 0.9 +- 0.25 respectively, at 3.5 GeV and constant up to 7 GeV/c. The large meson/π 0 production ratio supports the hypothesis that high-psub(T) mesons are the leading fragments of the basic constituent jet. The eta'/eta ratio exemplifies the SU(3) singlet nature of the eta'. (orig.)

  20. Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: the effect on regional crop yield forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Boogaard, H.L.; Diepen, van C.A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the effect of uncertainty in precipitation and radiation on crop simulation results at local (50 × 50 km grids) and regional scale (NUTS1 regions) and on the crop yield forecasts for Germany and France. Two experiments were carried out where crop yields for winter-wheat and grain

  1. Euskarazko denbora-egiturak. Azterketa eta etiketatze-esperimentua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begoña Altuna

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Denbora-informazioa erauztea oso erabilgarria da hizkuntzaren prozesamenduan (HP, besteak beste, testuen sinplifikazioan, informazio-erauzketako eta itzulpen automatikoko sistemetan balia baitaiteke. Lan honetan, euskaraz informazio hori baliagarri bihurtzeko egin diren lehen urratsak azaltzen dira: batetik, euskaraz denbora adierazteko erabiltzen diren egiturak zein eratakoak diren aztertu da gramatiketan oinarrituta, eta bestetik, egitura horiek testuetan etiketatzeko lehen erabakiak hartu dira. Halaber, ekonomiari buruzko corpus bat osatuta egin den etiketatze-lanaren esperimentua azaltzen da.

  2. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs < 1 is tested for each pixel in n simulations which are integrated in a unique parameter. This parameter links the landslide probability to the uncertainties of soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  3. Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.; Goodman, S. J.; Cecil, D. J.

    2008-01-01

    Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

  4. Measurement of $\\eta '(958)$ formation in two-photon collisions at LEP1

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M; Aguilar-Benítez, M; Ahlen, S P; Alcaraz, J; Alemanni, G; Allaby, James V; Aloisio, A; Alverson, G; Alviggi, M G; Ambrosi, G; Anderhub, H; Andreev, V P; Angelescu, T; Anselmo, F; Arefev, A; Azemoon, T; Aziz, T; Bagnaia, P; Baksay, L; Ball, R C; Banerjee, S; Banerjee, Sw; Banicz, K; Barczyk, A; Barillère, R; Barone, L; Bartalini, P; Baschirotto, A; Basile, M; Battiston, R; Bay, A; Becattini, F; Becker, U; Behner, F; Berdugo, J; Berges, P; Bertucci, B; Betev, B L; Bhattacharya, S; Biasini, M; Biland, A; Bilei, G M; Blaising, J J; Blyth, S C; Bobbink, Gerjan J; Böck, R K; Böhm, A; Boldizsar, L; Borgia, B; Bourilkov, D; Bourquin, Maurice; Boutigny, D; Braccini, S; Branson, J G; Brigljevic, V; Brock, I C; Buffini, A; Buijs, A; Burger, J D; Burger, W J; Busenitz, J K; Cai, X D; Campanelli, M; Capell, M; Cara Romeo, G; Carlino, G; Cartacci, A M; Casaus, J; Castellini, G; Cavallari, F; Cavallo, N; Cecchi, C; Cerrada-Canales, M; Cesaroni, F; Chamizo-Llatas, M; Chang, Y H; Chaturvedi, U K; Chekanov, S V; Chemarin, M; Chen, A; Chen, G; Chen, G M; Chen, H F; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Chiefari, G; Chien, C Y; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, F; Civinini, C; Clare, I; Clare, R; Cohn, H O; Coignet, G; Colijn, A P; Colino, N; Commichau, V; Costantini, S; Cotorobai, F; de la Cruz, B; Csilling, Akos; Dai, T S; D'Alessandro, R; De Asmundis, R; Degré, A; Deiters, K; Denes, P; De Notaristefani, F; DiBitonto, Daryl; Diemoz, M; Van Dierendonck, D N; Di Lodovico, F; Dionisi, C; Dittmar, Michael; Dominguez, A; Doria, A; Dova, M T; Drago, E; Duchesneau, D; Duinker, P; Durán, I; Dutta, S; Easo, S; Efremenko, Yu V; El-Mamouni, H; Engler, A; Eppling, F J; Erné, F C; Ernenwein, J P; Extermann, Pierre; Fabre, M; Faccini, R; Falciano, S; Favara, A; Fay, J; Fedin, O; Felcini, Marta; Fenyi, B; Ferguson, T; Ferroni, F; Fesefeldt, H S; Fiandrini, E; Field, J H; Filthaut, Frank; Fisher, P H; Fisk, I; Forconi, G; Fredj, L; Freudenreich, Klaus; Furetta, C; Galaktionov, Yu; Ganguli, S N; García-Abia, P; Gau, S S; Gentile, S; Gerald, J; Gheordanescu, N; Giagu, S; Goldfarb, S; Goldstein, J; Gong, Z F; Gougas, Andreas; Gratta, Giorgio; Grünewald, M W; Gupta, V K; Gurtu, A; Gutay, L J; Hartmann, B; Hasan, A; Hatzifotiadou, D; Hebbeker, T; Hervé, A; Van Hoek, W C; Hofer, H; Hong, S J; Hoorani, H; Hou, S R; Hu, G; Innocente, Vincenzo; Jenkes, K; Jin, B N; Jones, L W; de Jong, P; Josa-Mutuberria, I; Kasser, A; Khan, R A; Kamrad, D; Kamyshkov, Yu A; Kapustinsky, J S; Karyotakis, Yu; Kaur, M; Kienzle-Focacci, M N; Kim, D; Kim, D H; Kim, J K; Kim, S C; Kim, Y G; Kinnison, W W; Kirkby, A; Kirkby, D; Kirkby, Jasper; Kiss, D; Kittel, E W; Klimentov, A; König, A C; Kopp, A; Korolko, I; Koutsenko, V F; Krämer, R W; Krenz, W; Kunin, A; Lacentre, P E; Ladrón de Guevara, P; Landi, G; Lapoint, C; Lassila-Perini, K M; Laurikainen, P; Lebeau, M; Lebedev, A; Lebrun, P; Lecomte, P; Lecoq, P; Le Coultre, P; Lee, H J; Leggett, C; Le Goff, J M; Leiste, R; Leonardi, E; Levchenko, P M; Li Chuan; Lin, C H; Lin, W T; Linde, Frank L; Lista, L; Liu, Z A; Lohmann, W; Longo, E; Lu, W; Lü, Y S; Lübelsmeyer, K; Luci, C; Luckey, D; Luminari, L; Lustermann, W; Ma Wen Gan; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Malgeri, L; Malinin, A; Maña, C; Mangeol, D J J; Mangla, S; Marchesini, P A; Marin, A; Martin, J P; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McNally, D; Mele, S; Merola, L; Meschini, M; Metzger, W J; Von der Mey, M; Mi, Y; Mihul, A; Van Mil, A J W; Milcent, H; Mirabelli, G; Mnich, J; Molnár, P; Monteleoni, B; Moore, R; Morganti, S; Moulik, T; Mount, R; Müller, S; Muheim, F; Muijs, A J M; Nahn, S; Napolitano, M; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Newman, H; Niessen, T; Nippe, A; Nisati, A; Nowak, H; Oh, Yu D; Opitz, H; Organtini, G; Ostonen, R; Palomares, C; Pandoulas, D; Paoletti, S; Paolucci, P; Park, H K; Park, I H; Pascale, G; Passaleva, G; Patricelli, S; Paul, T; Pauluzzi, M; Paus, C; Pauss, Felicitas; Peach, D; Pei, Y J; Pensotti, S; Perret-Gallix, D; Petersen, B; Petrak, S; Pevsner, A; Piccolo, D; Pieri, M; Piroué, P A; Pistolesi, E; Plyaskin, V; Pohl, M; Pozhidaev, V; Postema, H; Produit, N; Prokofev, D; Prokofiev, D O; Rahal-Callot, G; Raja, N; Rancoita, P G; Rattaggi, M; Raven, G; Razis, P A; Read, K; Ren, D; Rescigno, M; Reucroft, S; Van Rhee, T; Riemann, S; Riles, K; Rind, O; Rizzo, R; Robohm, A; Rodin, J; Roe, B P; Romero, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rosselet, P; Van Rossum, W; Roth, S; Rubio, Juan Antonio; Ruschmeier, D; Rykaczewski, H; Salicio, J; Sánchez, E; Sanders, M P; Sarakinos, M E; Sarkar, S; Sassowsky, M; Sauvage, G; Schäfer, C; Shchegelskii, V; Schmidt-Kärst, S; Schmitz, D; Schmitz, P; Schneegans, M; Scholz, N; Schopper, Herwig Franz; Schotanus, D J; Schwenke, J; Schwering, G; Sciacca, C; Sciarrino, D; Servoli, L; Shevchenko, S; Shivarov, N; Shoutko, V; Shukla, J; Shumilov, E; Shvorob, A V; Siedenburg, T; Son, D; Soulimov, V; Smith, B; Spillantini, P; Steuer, M; Stickland, D P; Stone, H; Stoyanov, B; Strässner, A; Strauch, K; Sudhakar, K; Sultanov, G G; Sun, L Z; Susinno, G F; Suter, H; Swain, J D; Tang, X W; Tauscher, Ludwig; Taylor, L; Ting, Samuel C C; Ting, S M; Tonutti, M; Tonwar, S C; Tóth, J; Tully, C; Tuchscherer, H; Tung, K L; Uchida, Y; Ulbricht, J; Uwer, U; Valente, E; Van de Walle, R T; Vesztergombi, G; Vetlitskii, I; Viertel, Gert M; Vivargent, M; Völkert, R; Vogel, H; Vogt, H; Vorobev, I; Vorobyov, A A; Vorvolakos, A; Wadhwa, M; Wallraff, W; Wang, J C; Wang, X L; Wang, Z M; Weber, A; Wittgenstein, F; Wu, S X; Wynhoff, S; Xu, J; Xu, Z Z; Yang, B Z; Yang, C G; Yao, X Y; Ye, J B; Yeh, S C; You, J M; Zalite, A; Zalite, Yu; Zemp, P; Zeng, Y; Zhang, Z; Zhang, Z P; Zhou, B; Zhou, Y; Zhu, G Y; Zhu, R Y; Zichichi, Antonino; Ziegler, F

    1998-01-01

    The formation of the eta' in the reaction ee->ee eta'->ee pi pi gamma has been measured by the L3 detector at a centre-of-mass energy of 91 GeV. The radiative width of the eta' has been found to be 4.17 +/- 0.10(stat.) +/- 0.27(sys.) keV . The Q^2 dependence of the eta' formation cross section has been measured for Q^2 < 10 GeV^2 and the eta' electromagnetic transition form factor has been determined. The form factor can be parametrised by a pole form with Lambda = 0.900 +/- 0.046(stat) +/- 0.022(sys) GeV. It is also consistent with recent non-perturbative QCD calculations.

  5. Distributed HUC-based modeling with SUMMA for ensemble streamflow forecasting over large regional domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saharia, M.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.; Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Most operational streamflow forecasting systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow require an experienced human forecaster. But this approach faces challenges surrounding process reproducibility, hindcasting capability, and extension to large domains. The operational hydrologic community is increasingly moving towards `over-the-loop' (completely automated) large-domain simulations yet recent developments indicate a widespread lack of community knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of such systems for forecasting. A realistic representation of land surface hydrologic processes is a critical element for improving forecasts, but often comes at the substantial cost of forecast system agility and efficiency. While popular grid-based models support the distributed representation of land surface processes, intermediate-scale Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-based modeling could provide a more efficient and process-aligned spatial discretization, reducing the need for tradeoffs between model complexity and critical forecasting requirements such as ensemble methods and comprehensive model calibration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the USACE to implement, assess, and demonstrate real-time, over-the-loop distributed streamflow forecasting for several large western US river basins and regions. In this presentation, we present early results from short to medium range hydrologic and streamflow forecasts for the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We employ a real-time 1/16th degree daily ensemble model forcings as well as downscaled Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) meteorological forecasts. These datasets drive an intermediate-scale configuration of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model, which represents the PNW using over 11,700 HUCs. The system produces not only streamflow forecasts (using the Mizu

  6. Theories of the eta-meson-nucleus interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.C.

    1994-01-01

    It is sown that the pion-nucleon elastic scattering, eta-nucleon scattering length and the cross sections for pion-induced eta production on a nucleon satisfy a set of consistency relations. These relations are used to examine the ηN scattering lengths given by the various models. The nature of the threshold ηN interaction is discussed and recent advancements in ηN interaction is discussed and recent advancements in η-nucleus reaction theory are reviewed

  7. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  8. {eta} meson photoproduction on deuterium; Photoproduction du meson {eta} sur le deuterium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann-Rothe, P.

    1996-05-30

    Measurements of the total and differential cross sections for {eta}-meson photoproduction on a D{sub 2} liquid target from threshold to 1.2 GeV, have been taken using the tagged Bremsstrahlung photon beam produced by the electrons extracted from the ELSA storage ring at Bonn. The reaction was identified by detecting the eta decay products in the neutral meson spectrometer SPES0-2{pi}, while the recoil baryons (proton, neutron or deuteron) were detected by a variety of large angle scintillator detectors. We succeeded to identify completely the final states corresponding to the production of an {eta} meson on a Quasi-Free (QF) proton, a QF neutron and the coherent deuteron. The differential cross sections corresponding to the production of a coherent deuteron n the final state have been measured, from threshold to 800 MeV; they are 6 times smaller the only previous measurement reported by Anderson and Prepost in 1969. This is consistent with an Isoscalar part of the Amplitude much smaller than the Isovector one. The differential cross sections are in good agreement with the theoretical prediction on the impulse approximation mechanism; indicating in particular, fairly small contributions from rescattering terms. A direct measurement of the neutron to proton cross section ratios has been obtained by integrating the counting rates on the corresponding QF peaks and is 0.70 {+-} 0.03, from 700 MeV to 900 MeV, with a small angular dependence. These two results by comparison to the measured free proton data should allow to reconstruct the free neutron cross sections in a rather model-independent way. (authors). 56 refs., 90 figs., 13 tabs.

  9. Tourism demand in the Algarve region: Evolution and forecast using SVARMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Isabel Cristina; Soares, Filomena; Silva, Eliana Costa e.

    2017-06-01

    Tourism is one of the Portuguese economy's key sectors, and its relative weight has grown over recent years. The Algarve region is particularly focused on attracting foreign tourists and has built over the years a large offer of diversified hotel units. In this paper we present multivariate time series approach to forecast the number of overnight stays in hotel units (hotels, guesthouses or hostels, and tourist apartments) in Algarve. We adjust a seasonal vector autoregressive and moving averages model (SVARMA) to monthly data between 2006 and 2016. The forecast values were compared with the actual values of the overnight stays in Algarve in 2016 and led to a MAPE of 15.1% and RMSE= 53847.28. The MAPE for the Hotel series was merely 4.56%. These forecast values can be used by a hotel manager to predict their occupancy and to determine the best pricing policy.

  10. Odd and even partial waves of eta pi(-) and eta 'pi(-) in pi(-) p -> eta(('))pi(-)p at 191 GeV/c

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Adolph, C.; Akhunzyanov, R.; Alexeev, M. G.; Alexeev, G. D.; Amoroso, A.; Andrieux, V.; Anosov, V.; Austregesilo, A.; Badelek, B.; Balestra, F.; Barth, J.; Baum, G.; Beck, R.; Bedfer, Y.; Berlin, A.; Bernhard, J.; Bicker, K.; Bielert, E. R.; Bieling, J.; Birsa, R.; Bisplinghoff, J.; Bodlak, M.; Boer, M.; Bordalo, P.; Bradamante, F.; Braun, C.; Bressan, A.; Büchele, M.; Burtin, E.; Capozza, L.; Chiosso, M.; Chung, S. U.; Cicuttin, A.; Crespo, M.; Curiel, Q.; Dalla Torre, S.; Dasgupta, S. S.; Dasgupta, S.; Denisov, O. Yu.; Donskov, S. V.; Doshita, N.; Duic, V.; Dünnweber, W.; Dziewiecki, M.; Efremov, A.; Elia, C.; Eversheim, P.D.; Eyrich, W.; Faessler, M.; Ferrero, A.; Finger jr., M.; Fischer, A.; Franco, C.; Fresne von Hohenesche, N.; Friedrich, J. M.; Frolov, V.; Gautheron, F.; Gavrichtchouk, O. P.; Gerassimov, S.; Geyer, R.; Gnesi, I.; Gobbo, B.; Goertz, S.; Gorzellik, M.; Grabmüller, S.; Grasso, A.; Grube, B.; Grussenmeyer, T.; Guskov, A.; Haas, F.; von Harrach, D.; Hahne, D.; Hashimoto, R.; Heinsius, F. H.; Herrmann, F.; Hinterberger, F.; Höppner, Ch.; Horikawa, N.; d´Hose, N.; Huber, S.; Ishimoto, S.; Ivanov, A.; Ivanshin, Yu.; Iwata, T.; Jahn, R.; Jary, V.; Jasinski, P.; Jörg, P.; Joosten, R.; Kabuss, E.; Ketzer, B.; Khaustov, G. V.; Khokhlov, Yu. A.; Kisselev, Y.; Klein, F.; Klimaszewski, A. D.; Koivuniemi, J. H.; Kolosov, V. N.; Kondo, K.; Königsmann, K.; Konorov, I.; Konstantinov, V. F.; Kotzinian, A. M.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krämer, M.; Kroumchtein, Z. V.; Kuchinski, N.; Kunne, F.; Kurek, K.; Kurjata, R. P.; Lednev, A. A.; Lehmann, A.; Levillain, M.; Levorato, S.; Lichtenstadt, J.; Maggiora, A.; Magnon, A.; Makke, N.; Mallot, G. K.; Marchand, C.; Martin, A.; Marzec, J.; Matoušek, J.; Matsuda, H.; Matsuda, T.; Meshcheryakov, G.; Meyer, W.; Michigami, T.; Mikhailov, Yu. V.; Miyachi, Y.; Nagaytsev, A.; Nagel, T.; Nerling, F.; Neubert, S.; Neyret, D.; Nový, J.; Nowak, W. D.; Nunes, A.S.; Olshevsky, A. G.; Orlov, I.; Ostrick, M.; Panknin, R.; Panzieri, D.; Parsamyan, B.; Paul, S.; Peshekhonov, D. V.; Platchkov, S.; Pochodzalla, J.; Polyakov, V.; Pretz, J.; Quaresma, M.; Quintans, C.; Ramos, S.; Regali, C.; Reicherz, G.; Rocco, E.; Rossiyskaya, N. S.; Ryabchikov, D.; Rychter, A.; Samoylenko, V. D.; Sandacz, A.; Sarkar, S.; Savin, I. A.; Sbrizzai, G.; Schiavon, P.; Schill, C.; Schlüter, T.; Schmidt, K.; Schmieden, H.; Schönning, K.; Schopferer, S.; Schott, M.; Shevchenko, O. Yu.; Silva, L.; Sinha, L.; Sirtl, S.; Slunecka, M.; Sosio, S.; Sozzi, F.; Srnka, Aleš; Steiger, L.; Stolarski, M.; Sulc, M.; Sulej, R.; Suzuki, H.; Szabelski, A.; Szameitat, T.; Sznajder, P.; Takekawa, S.; Ter Wolbeek, J.; Tessaro, S.; Tessarotto, F.; Thibaud, F.; Uhl, S.; Uman, I.; Virius, M.; Wang, L.; Weisrock, T.; Wilfert, M.; Windmolders, R.; Wollny, H.; Zaremba, K.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zemlyanichkina, E.; Ziembicki, M.; Zink, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 740, 5 JAN (2015), s. 303-311 ISSN 0370-2693 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1212 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : eta-pi * annihilation * resonance * systems * state * rest Subject RIV: BH - Optics, Masers, Lasers Impact factor: 4.787, year: 2015

  11. {pi}{eta} pair hard electroproduction and exotic hybrid mesons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anikin, I.V. [LPT, Universite Paris-Sud, 91405-Orsay, France, UMR 8627 du CNRS (France); BLTP, JINR, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); CPHT, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France, UMR 7644 du CNRS (France); Pire, B. [CPHT, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France, UMR 7644 du CNRS (France); Szymanowski, L. [Soltan Institute for Nuclear Studies, Warsaw (Poland) and Univ. de Liege, B-4000 Liege (Belgium); Teryaev, O.V. [BLTP, JINR, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); Wallon, S. [LPT, Universite Paris-Sud, 91405-Orsay, France, UMR 8627 du CNRS (France)

    2005-06-13

    We show that hard electroproduction is a promising way to study exotic hybrid mesons, in particular through the hybrid decay channel H->{pi}{eta}. We discuss the {pi}{eta} generalized distribution amplitude, calculate the production amplitude and propose a forward-backward asymmetry as a signal for the hybrid meson production.

  12. Measurement of inclusive eta production in e+e- interactions near charm threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, F.C.

    1980-08-01

    The inclusive cross section for eta production in e + e - interactions near charm threshold was measured by use of the Crystal Ball detector at SPEAR. By comparison of the inclusive eta production above and below charm threshold the following limits were obtained: R(e + e - → F anti FX)BR(F → eta x) < 0.3 (90% C.L., E/sub cm/ < 4.5 GeV); BR(D → eta x) < 0.13 (90% C.L., averaged over charged and neutral D components of the psi''). 4 figures, 1 table

  13. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

  14. 29 CFR 500.132 - Applicable Federal standards: ETA and OSHA housing standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Applicable Federal standards: ETA and OSHA housing... Migrant Workers Housing Safety and Health § 500.132 Applicable Federal standards: ETA and OSHA housing... § 500.131, all migrant housing is subject to either the ETA standards or the OSHA standards, as follows...

  15. A COMPANION AS THE CAUSE OF LATITUDE-DEPENDENT EFFECTS IN THE WIND OF ETA CARINAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groh, J. H.; Madura, T. I.; Weigelt, G.; Hillier, D. J.; Kruip, C. J. H.

    2012-01-01

    We analyze spatially resolved spectroscopic observations of the Eta Carinae binary system obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope/STIS. Eta Car is enshrouded by the dusty Homunculus nebula, which scatters light emitted by the central binary and provides a unique opportunity to study a massive binary system from different vantage points. We investigate the latitudinal and azimuthal dependence of Hα line profiles caused by the presence of a wind-wind collision (WWC) cavity created by the companion star. Using two-dimensional radiative transfer models, we find that the wind cavity can qualitatively explain the observed line profiles around apastron. Regions of the Homunculus which scatter light that propagated through the WWC cavity show weaker or no Hα absorption. Regions scattering light that propagated through a significant portion of the primary wind show stronger P Cygni absorption. Our models overestimate the Hα absorption formed in the primary wind, which we attribute to photoionization by the companion, not presently included in the models. We can qualitatively explain the latitudinal changes that occur during periastron, shedding light on the nature of Eta Car's spectroscopic events. Our models support the idea that during the brief period of time around periastron when the primary wind flows unimpeded toward the observer, Hα absorption occurs in directions toward the central object and Homunculus SE pole, but not toward equatorial regions close to the Weigelt blobs. We suggest that observed latitudinal and azimuthal variations are dominated by the companion star via the WWC cavity, rather than by rapid rotation of the primary star.

  16. Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Carrão

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

  17. Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model has been utilized to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, factors including horizontal resolution, domain size, and the physical parameterization scheme have a strong impact on the dynamic downscaling ability of the WRF model. In this study, the influence of these factors has been analyzed in precipitation forecasting for the Xijiang Basin, southern China—a region with complex topography. The results indicate that higher horizontal resolutions always result in higher Critical Success Indexes (CSI, but higher biases as well. Meanwhile, the precipitation forecast skills are also influenced by the combination of microphysics parameterization scheme and cumulus convective parameterization scheme. On the basis of these results, an optimized configuration of the WRF model is built in which the horizontal resolution is 10 km, the microphysics parameterization is the Lin scheme, and the cumulus convective parameterization is the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme. This configuration is then evaluated by simulating the daily weather during the 2013–2014 flood season. The high Critical Success Index scores and low biases at various thresholds and lead times confirm the high accuracy of the optimized WRF model configuration for Xijiang Basin. However, the performance of the WRF model varies from different sub-basins due to the complexity of the mesoscale convective system (MCS over this region.

  18. Regional air-quality forecasting for the Pacific Northwest using MOPITT/TERRA assimilated carbon monoxide MOZART-4 forecasts as a near real-time boundary condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. L. Herron-Thorpe

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Results from a regional air quality forecast model, AIRPACT-3, were compared to AIRS carbon monoxide column densities for the spring of 2010 over the Pacific Northwest. AIRPACT-3 column densities showed high correlation (R > 0.9 but were significantly biased (~25% with consistent under-predictions for spring months when there is significant transport from Asia. The AIRPACT-3 CO bias relative to AIRS was eliminated by incorporating dynamic boundary conditions derived from NCAR's MOZART forecasts with assimilated MOPITT carbon monoxide. Changes in ozone-related boundary conditions derived from MOZART forecasts are also discussed and found to affect background levels by ± 10 ppb but not found to significantly affect peak ozone surface concentrations.

  19. iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

  20. Inclusive decays of {eta}{sub b} into S- and P-wave charmonium states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Zhi-Guo, E-mail: hzgzlh@gmail.co [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, P.O. Box 918(4), Beijing, 100049 (China); Theoretical Physics Center for Science Facilities, Beijing, 100049 (China); Li, Bai-Qing [Department of Physics, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou, 313000 (China)

    2010-09-20

    Inclusive S- and P-wave charmonium productions in the bottomonium ground state {eta}{sub b} decay are calculated at the leading order in the strong coupling constant {alpha}{sub s} and quarkonium internal relative velocity v in the framework of the NRQCD factorization approach. We find the contribution of {eta}{sub b{yields}{chi}c{sub J}}+gg followed by {chi}{sub c{sub J{yields}}}J/{psi}+{gamma} is also very important to inclusive J/{psi} production in the {eta}{sub b} decays, which maybe helpful to the investigation of the color-octet mechanism in the inclusive J/{psi} production in the {eta}{sub b} decays in the forthcoming LHCb and SuperB. As a complementary work, we also study the inclusive production of {eta}{sub c}, and {chi}{sub cJ} in the {eta}{sub b} decays, which may help us understand the X(3940) and X(3872) states.

  1. Inclusive eta production at large transverse momenta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donaldson, G.J.; Gordon, H.A.; Lai, K.; Stumer, I.; Barnes, A.V.; Mellema, D.J.; Tollestrup, A.V.; Walker, R.L.; Dahl, O.; Johnson, R.; Ogawa, A.; Pripstein, M.; Shannon, S.

    1978-01-01

    We have measured the ratio of inclusive production of eta to π 0 at transverse momenta above 1.5 GeV/c. Results are presented for various meson and proton beams with momenta of 100, 200, and 300 GeV/c incident upon a hydrogen target. The eta/π 0 production ratio is found to be independent of incident beam momentum and of the transverse and longitudinal momenta of production. The ratio for pion- and proton-induced reactions is 0.44 +- 0.05; for kaons, it is 0.74 +- 0.12

  2. Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

  3. On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

    The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

  4. A search for bound states of the /eta/-meson in light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pile, P.H.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes an experiment designed to search for a new form of nuclear matter--a bound /eta/-nucleus system. The (π + ,p) reaction was used to study the possible formation of an /eta/-mesic nucleus. No narrow /eta/-nuclear bound states were observed using 7 Li, 12 C, 16 O and 27 Al targets. 7 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  5. High gain free electron laser at ETA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orzechowski, T.J.; Prosnitz, D.; Halbach, K.

    1983-01-01

    A single pass, tapered electron wiggler and associated beam transport has been constructed at the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The system is designed to transport 1 kA of 4.5 MeV electrons with an emittance of 30 millirad-cm. The planar wiggler is provided by a pulsed electromagnet. The interaction region is an oversized rectangular waveguide. Quadrupole fields stabilize the beam in the plane parallel to the wiggler field. The 3 meter long wiggler has a 9.8 cm period. The Free Electron Laser (FEL) will serve as an amplifier for input frequencies of 35 GHz and 140 GHz. The facility is designed to produce better than 500 Megawatts peak power

  6. Structural basis for the suppression of skin cancers by DNA polymerase [eta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silverstein, Timothy D.; Johnson, Robert E.; Jain, Rinku; Prakash, Louise; Prakash, Satya; Aggarwal, Aneel K. (Texas-MED); (Mount Sinai Hospital)

    2010-09-13

    DNA polymerase {eta} (Pol{eta}) is unique among eukaryotic polymerases in its proficient ability for error-free replication through ultraviolet-induced cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers, and inactivation of Pol{eta} (also known as POLH) in humans causes the variant form of xeroderma pigmentosum (XPV). We present the crystal structures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Pol{eta} (also known as RAD30) in ternary complex with a cis-syn thymine-thymine (T-T) dimer and with undamaged DNA. The structures reveal that the ability of Pol{eta} to replicate efficiently through the ultraviolet-induced lesion derives from a simple and yet elegant mechanism, wherein the two Ts of the T-T dimer are accommodated in an active site cleft that is much more open than in other polymerases. We also show by structural, biochemical and genetic analysis that the two Ts are maintained in a stable configuration in the active site via interactions with Gln55, Arg73 and Met74. Together, these features define the basis for Pol{eta}'s action on ultraviolet-damaged DNA that is crucial in suppressing the mutagenic and carcinogenic consequences of sun exposure, thereby reducing the incidence of skin cancers in humans.

  7. Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korkmaz Seher

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning, forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011. Methods Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. Results The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs. Conclusions The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate

  8. A Measurement of the B ---> Eta/C K Branching Fraction Using the BaBar Detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, Frank; /Manchester U.

    2006-04-26

    The branching fraction is measured for the decay channels B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{sub c}K{sub S}{sup 0} and B{sup +} {yields} {eta}{sub c}K{sup +} where {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{bar K}{pi}, using the BABAR detector. The {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sup +}{pi}{sup -} and {eta}{sub c} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} decay channels are used, including non-resonant decays and possibly those through intermediate resonances.

  9. Start of Eta Car's X-ray Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Michael F.; Liburd, Jamar; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Gull, Theodore; Madura, Thomas; Teodoro, Mairan; Moffat, Anthony; Richardson, Noel; Russell, Chris; Pollock, Andrew; hide

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of Eta Car's X-ray spectrum in the 2-10 keV band using quicklook data from the XRay Telescope on Swift shows that the flux on July 30, 2014 was 4.9 plus or minus 2.0×10(exp-12) ergs s(exp-1)cm(exp-2). This flux is nearly equal to the X-ray minimum flux seen by RXTE in 2009, 2003.5, and 1998, and indicates that Eta Car has reached its X-ray minimum, as expected based on the 2024-day period derived from previous 2-10 keV observations with RXTE.

  10. Relvarahust taganemine tõi ETA-le laialdase hukkamõistu / Igor Taro

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Taro, Igor

    2007-01-01

    Baski separatistide organisatsiooni ETA otsus relvarahu lõpetamisest pälvis Hispaania peaministri Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero ja Iiri Vabriikliku Armee (IRA) Põhja-Iiri partei SinFeini liidri Gerry Adamsi hukkamõistu. Lisa: ETA võitlus

  11. Anti -corrosion Effect of ETA on Materials in Secondary Loop of PWR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In the world, over sixty percent of nuclear power plant have used advanced amunes ETA(Ethanolamine) as pH control agent in secondary loop of PWR. There are eighty percent of nuclear powerplants using ETA in USA. The corrosion of materials in steam generator (SG) tube and secondary looppower water reactor have been inhibited, the life of SG and the economics of the plant are increasedbecause of using ETA.

  12. Inclusive eta production at high psub(T) at the ISR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kourkoumelis, C.; Resvanis, L.K.; Filippas, T.A.; Fokitis, E.; Fabjan, C.W.; Fields, T.; Lissauer, D.; Mannelli, I.; Mouzourakis, P.; Nappi, A.; Willis, W.J.; Goldberg, M.

    1979-01-01

    The inclusive eta production cross section at the CERN ISR has been measured for psub(T) values of up to 11 GeV/c. It is found that the eta/π 0 cross-section ratio has an average value of 0.55 +- 0.07 and varies little with psub(T). (Auth.)

  13. eta pi(+)pi(-) Resonant Structure around 1.8 GeV/c(2) and eta in J/psi -> omega eta pi(+)pi(-)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Alberto, D.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Baldini, R.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A. C.; Cao, G. F.; Cao, X. X.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fan, R. R.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Greco, M.; Grishin, S.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Komamiya, S.; Kuehn, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, G. C.; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Y. W.; Liu, Yong; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Z. Q.; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, T.; Ma, X.; Ma, X. Y.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Muchnoi, N. Yu; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Sonoda, S.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Varner, G. S.; Wan, X.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xu, Z. Z.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, M.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, L.; Yu, S. P. Yu; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, Jiawei; Zhao, Jingwei; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhao, Z. L.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhong, L.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

    2011-01-01

    We present results of a study of the decay J/psi -> omega eta pi(+)pi(-) using a sample of (225.2 +/- 2.8) x 10(6) J/psi events collected by the BESIII detector, and report the observation of a new process J/psi -> omega X(1870) with a statistical significance of 7.2 sigma, in which X(1870) decays

  14. Preliminary assessment of the electromagnetic environment in the immediate vicinity of the ETA accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabayan, H.S.; Bogdan, E.; Zicker, J.; Wythe, D.; Burke, G.J.

    1980-04-01

    The electromagnetic fields in the immediate vicinity of the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory have been characterized. Various EM sensors that cover the frequency band from the very low frequencies up into the GHz region have been used. The report describes in detail the probes, the test set-up and the data processing techniques

  15. Study of the {eta} meson production and decay in {pi}{sup +} - d interactions between 600 and 900 MeV; Etude de la production et de la desintegration du meson {eta} dans les interactions {pi}{sup +} - deuterium entre 600 et 900 MeV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pauli, E [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1967-07-01

    The reaction {pi}{sup +} + d {yields} p + p + {eta} is observed in the 35 cm and 50 cm deuterium bubble chambers of the L.P.C.H.E. in Saclay. A total of 150000 pictures has been taken at six incident energies of the {pi}{sup +} between 600 MeV and 900 MeV in a {pi}{sup +} separated beam at Saturne. The results of this study show that the {eta} production cross section increases rapidly at threshold, then decreases slowly at higher energies. The {eta} production cross section increases rapidly at threshold, then decreases slowly at higher energies. The {eta} production angular distribution in the {pi}{sup +} - neutron c.m.s. is isotropic. From both of these facts, we conclude that the {eta} is produced in a S wave near threshold. As for the {eta} decay, the values of the following branching ratios have been determined: {gamma}{sub {eta}} ({gamma}{gamma})/{gamma}{sub {eta}} ({pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = 1.1 {+-} 0.5; {gamma}{sub {eta}} ({pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{gamma})/{gamma}{sub {eta}} ({pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}) = 0.73 {+-} 0.25; {gamma}{sub {eta}} (neutrals)/{gamma}{sub {eta}} ({pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}) = 3.8 {+-} 1.1; {gamma}{sub {eta}} (neutrals)/{gamma}{sub {eta}} (charged) = 2.2 {+-} 0.35. Finally, we compare the {eta} production and decay results with the different theoretical predictions. (author) [French] La reaction {pi}{sup +} + d {yields} p + p + {eta} est observee dans les chambres a bulles a deuterium de 35 cm et de 50 cm du L.P.C.H.E. a Saclay. L'energie incidente du {pi}{sup +} varie de 600 a 900 MeV et environ 150000 photos ont ete prises au total aupres de Saturne. Cette etude nous montre que la section efficace de production du {eta} augmente tres rapidement a partir du seuil et diminue a energie plus elevee. La distribution angulaire de production du {eta} dans le systeme {pi}{sup +} neutron est compatible avec une distribution isotrope. Ces deux resultats nous amenent a conclure que le {eta} est sans doute produit dans

  16. THE DECEPTIVELY SIMPLE THERMOLYSIS OF TRIVALENT PERMETHYLTITANOCENE DERIVATIVES (ETA-5-C5ME5)2TIR - FORMATION OF A TETRAMETHYLFULVENE TITANIUM COMPOUND (ETA-6-C5ME4CH2)(ETA-5-C5ME5)TI AND RH, CATALYZED BY PERMETHYLTITANOCENE HYDRIDE, (ETA-5-C5ME5)2TIH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    LUINSTRA, GA; TEUBEN, JH

    1992-01-01

    The complexes Cp*2TiR (Cp* = eta-5-C5Me5; R = Me, Et, n-Pr, C2H3, CH2CMe3, Ph) undergo thermolysis to yield the fulvene complex Cp*FvTi (Fv = eta-6-C5Me4CH2) and RH. Kinetic measurements and deuterium labeling studies show that the decomposition is catalyzed by Cp*2TiH, which is formed either by

  17. Early Chandra X-ray Observations of Eta Carinae

    OpenAIRE

    Seward, F. D.; Butt, Y. M.; Karovska, M.; Schlegel, A. Prestwich. E. M.; Corcoran, M.

    2001-01-01

    Sub-arcsecond resolution Chandra observations of Eta Carinae reveal a 40 arcsec X 70 arcsec ring or partial shell of X-ray emission surrounding an unresolved, bright, central source. The spectrum of the central source is strongly absorbed and can be fit with a high-temperature thermal continuum and emission lines. The surrounding shell is well outside the optical/IR bipolar nebula and is coincident with the Outer Shell of Eta Carinae. The X-ray spectrum of the Shell is much softer than that o...

  18. Imaging Shock Fronts in the Outer Ejecta of Eta Carinae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nathan

    2017-08-01

    Although Eta Car has been imaged many times with HST to monitor the central star and the bright Homunculus Nebula, we propose the first WFC3 imaging of Eta Car to study the more extended Outer Ejecta from previous eruptions. WFC3 has two key filters that have not been used before to image Eta Car, which will provide critical physical information about its eruptive history: (1) F280N with WFC3/UVIS will produce the first Mg II 2800 image of Eta Car, the sharpest image of its complex Outer Ejecta, and will unambiguously trace shock fronts, and (2) F126N with WFC3/IR will sample [Fe II] 12567 arising in the densest post-shock gas. Eta Car is surrounded by a bright, soft X-ray shell seen in Chandra images, which arises from the fastest 1840s ejecta overtaking slower older material. Our recent proper motion measurements show that the outer knots were ejected in two outbursts several hundred years before the 1840s eruption, and spectroscopy of light echoes has recently revealed extremely fast ejecta during the 1840s that indicate an explosive event. Were those previous eruptions explosive as well? If so, were they as energetic, did they also have such fast ejecta, and did they have the same geometry? The structure and excitation of the Outer Ejecta hold unique clues for reconstructing Eta Car's violent mass loss history. The locations of shock fronts in circumstellar material provide critical information, because they identify past discontinuities in the mass loss. This is one of the only ways to investigate the long term (i.e. centuries) evolution and duty cycle of eruptive mass loss in the most massive stars.

  19. Update on Anion Resin Kinetic Impairment in PWR Polishers Using ETA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlin, William

    2012-09-01

    The paper is an update on the investigation of experiences with impaired anion kinetics in PWRs using ETA. 17 years worth of circumstantial evidence has led to the development of a new resin to mitigate the anion kinetic impairment issue with PWRs using ETA. A test bed was installed at Diablo Canyon Unit 1. After 1.5 years of service, the SO 4 MTC of the anion resin in the test bed is still >2.0 x10 -4 m/s (like new resin). Other resin beds operating under parallel conditions in the same unit have experienced kinetic impairment which follows the classic pattern seen in plants where ETA is used. Although the exact pathway of the ETA fouling mechanism is still not proven, the circumstantial evidence collected over many years, and a new theory on the fouling mechanism will also be presented and discussed. (authors)

  20. Utilisation of an eta(3)-allyl hydride complex, formed by UV irradiation, as a controlled source of 16-electron (eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))Rh(CH(2)[double bond, length as m-dash]CHMe).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, Catherine J; López-Serrano, Joaquín; Lledós, Agustí; Duckett, Simon B

    2008-10-21

    Low temperature UV irradiation of solutions of (eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))Rh(CH(2)[double bond, length as m-dash]CHMe)(2) yields (eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))Rh(eta(3)-CH(2)CHCH(2))(H), which provides controlled access to the 16-electron fragment (eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))Rh(CH(2)[double bond, length as m-dash]CHMe).

  1. Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

    2015-04-01

    The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model

  2. Labelling of MoAb with 153SmH1ETA: Preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferro-Flores, G.; De, F.; Ramirez, M.; Pedraza-Lopez, M.; Tendilla, J.I.; Melendez-Alafort, L.; Murphy, C.A.

    2001-01-01

    A method to label MoAb with Sm-153 using 1,5,9,13-tetraazacyclohexadecane N,N',N'',N''' tetraacetic acid (H 4 ETA) as a bifunctional chelator was developed. H 4 ETA and SmH 1 ETA were synthesized in our laboratory and characterized by IR spectroscopy, TGA (thermogravimetric analysis), SEM (Scattering Electronic Microscopy), EDAX (Elemental Dispersion Analysis by X-rays) and EPR (Electron Paramagnetic Resonance) at 6 K. The 153 SmH 1 ETAMoAb was prepared by a simple incubation of the MoAb ior cea1, and the 153 SmH 1 ETA complex at neutral pH and at room temperature for 24 h. The specific activity of the labelled antibody was 111 MBq/mg (3 mCi/mg). Sm-153(III) is commercially available with specific activities up to 318.2 GBq/mg. Therefore, under the conditions described above 153 SmH 1 ETA labelled MoAb could be obtained with specific activity up to 1.14 GBq/mg (30.7 mCi/mg). (author)

  3. Incorporating Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Seasonal Crop Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa to Support National/Regional/Local Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides seasonal assessments of crop conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and other food insecure regions. These assessments and current livelihood, nutrition, market conditions and conflicts are used to generate food security scenarios that help national, regional and local decision makers target their resources and mitigate socio-economic losses. Among the various tools that FEWS NET uses is the FAO's Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). The WRSI is a simple yet powerful crop assessment model that incorporates current moisture conditions (at the time of the issuance of forecast), precipitation scenarios, potential evapotranspiration and crop parameters to categorize crop conditions into different classes ranging from "failure" to "very good". The WRSI tool has been shown to have a good agreement with local crop yields in the GHA region. At present, the precipitation scenarios used to drive the WRSI are based on either a climatological forecast (that assigns equal chances of occurrence to all possible scenarios and has no skill over the forecast period) or a sea-surface temperature anomaly based scenario (which at best have skill at the seasonal scale). In both cases, the scenarios fail to capture the skill that can be attained by initial atmospheric conditions (i.e., medium-range weather forecasts). During the middle of a cropping season, when a week or two of poor rains can have a devastating effect, two weeks worth of skillful precipitation forecasts could improve the skill of the crop scenarios. With this working hypothesis, we examine the value of incorporating medium-range weather forecasts in improving the skill of crop scenarios in the GHA region. We use the NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) weather forecasts and examine the skill of crop scenarios generated using the GEFS weather forecasts with respect to the scenarios based solely on the climatological forecast

  4. Powers of Eta from Fay's identities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zuevsky, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 19 (2016), s. 135-141 ISSN 1822-511X Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : modular forms * Fay's trisecant identities * $eta$-function Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics

  5. Multiwavelength Imaging Of YSOs With Disk In South Pillars Of Eta Carina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. A.; Porras, B. A.

    2013-04-01

    We present multiwavelength imaginery and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of 15 Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) with disk components lying on the South Pillars region close to Eta Carina (η Car). The SEDs include IR fluxes from 2MASS, IRAC, MSX, AKARI, and MIPS-24 μm, and 1.1 mm flux from AzTEC camera at the ASTE antenna. Millimeter fluxes help to constrain the number of fitted models, which provide the list of physical parameters for the star, the disk and the envelope. We then compare the parameters of the YSOs and their spatial location within the star forming region.

  6. Simple numerical evaluation of modified Bessel functions Ksub(ν)(x) of fractional order and the integral ∫sup(infinitely)sub(x)Ksub(ν)(eta)d eta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostroun, V.O.

    1980-01-01

    Theoretical expressions for the angular and spectral distributions of synchrotron radiation involve modified Bessel functions of fractional order and the integral ∫sup(infinitely)sub(x)Ksub(ν)(eta)d eta. A simple series expression for these quantities which can be evaluated numerically with hand-held programmable calculators is presented. (orig.)

  7. On-line analysis of ETA and organic acids in secondary systems of PWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurashina, Masahiko; Uzawa, Hideo; Utagawa, Koya; Takaku, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    To reduce the iron concentration in the secondary water of plants with pressurized water reactors (PWRs), ethanolamine (ETA) is used as an alkalizing agent in the secondary cycle. An on-line ion chromatography (IC) monitoring system for monitoring concentrations of ETA and anions of organic acids was developed, its performance was evaluated, and verification tests were conducted at an actual PWR plant. It was demonstrated that the concentration of both ETA and anions of organic acids may be successfully monitored by IC in PWR secondary cycle streams alkalized by ETA. (orig.)

  8. The adaptive CCCG({eta}) method for efficient solution of time dependent partial differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos, F.F. [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte (Brazil); Birkett, N.R.C. [Oxford Univ. Computing Lab. (United Kingdom)

    1996-12-31

    The Controlled Cholesky factorisation has been shown to be a robust preconditioner for the Conjugate Gradient method. In this scheme the amount of fill-in is defined in terms of a parameter {eta}, the number of extra elements allowed per column. It is demonstrated how an optimum value of {eta} can be automatically determined when solving time dependent p.d.e.`s using an implicit time step method. A comparison between CCCG({eta}) and the standard ICCG solving parabolic problems on general grids shows CCCG({eta}) to be an efficient general purpose solver.

  9. 76 FR 12760 - Comment Request for Information Collection for Report ETA 902, Disaster Unemployment Assistance...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-08

    ... Collection for Report ETA 902, Disaster Unemployment Assistance Activities (OMB Control No. 1205- 0051... soliciting comments concerning the proposed extension of the ETA 902, Disaster Unemployment [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: I. Background The ETA 902 Report, Disaster Unemployment...

  10. Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

  11. High precision measurement of the {eta} meson mass at COSY-ANKE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goslawski, Paul

    2013-07-01

    Previous measurements of the {eta} meson mass performed at different experimental facilities resulted in very precise data but differ by up to more than eight standard deviations, i.e., 0.5 MeV/c. Interestingly, the difference seems to be dependent on the measuring method: two missing mass experiments, which produce the {eta} meson in the {sup 3}He{eta} final state, deviate from the recent invariant mass ones. In order to clarify this ambiguous situation a high precision mass measurement was realised at the COSY-ANKE facility. Therefore, a set of deuteron laboratory beam momenta and their associated {sup 3}He centre-of-mass momenta was measured in the dp{yields}{sup 3}HeX reaction near the {eta} production threshold. The {eta} meson was identified by the missing mass peak, whereas its mass was extracted by fixing the production threshold. The individual beam momenta were determined with a relative precision of 3 x 10{sup -5} for values just above 3 GeV/c by using a polarised deuteron beam and inducing an artificial depolarising spin resonance occurring at a well-defined frequency. The final state momenta in the two-body reaction dp{yields}{sup 3}He{eta} were investigated in detail by studying the size of the {sup 3}He momentum sphere with the forward detection system of the ANKE spectrometer. Final alignment and momentum calibration of the spectrometer was achieved by a comprehensive study of the {sup 3}He final state momenta as a function of the centre-of-mass angles, taking advantage of the full geometrical acceptance. The value obtained for the mass at COSY-ANKE m{sub {eta}}=(547.873{+-}0.005{sub stat.}{+-}0.027{sub syst.}) MeV/c{sup 2} is therefore worldwide the most precise one. This mass value is contrary to earlier missing mass experiments but it is consistent and competitive with recent invariant mass measurements, in which the meson was detected through its decay products.

  12. A phosphorus analogue of bis(eta(4)-cyclobutadiene)iron(0)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, R.; Slootweg, J.C.; Ehlers, A.W.; Hartl, F.; de Bruin, B.; Lutz, M.; Spek, A.L.; Lammertsma, K.

    2009-01-01

    The new 17-electron species [Fe(eta(4)-P2C2tBu2)2]- (2) and 16-electron species [Fe(eta(4)-P2C2tBu2)2] (3) are rare examples of readily accessible, open-shell iron sandwich complexes with phosphaorganic ligands. The presented data lead us to conclude that phosphorus derivative (3) is a true analogue

  13. Cautionary Note on Reporting Eta-Squared Values from Multifactor ANOVA Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Charles A.; Block, Richard A.; Aguinis, Herman

    2004-01-01

    The authors provide a cautionary note on reporting accurate eta-squared values from multifactor analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. They reinforce the distinction between classical and partial eta-squared as measures of strength of association. They provide examples from articles published in premier psychology journals in which the authors…

  14. The near-infrared spectrum of Eta Carinae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, D.A.; Jones, T.J.; Hyland, A.R.

    1984-02-01

    Spectroscopy of the luminous star Eta Carinae has been performed in the atmospheric windows between 1.0 and 2.3 μm. The spectral resolution employed, up to about 1200, is the highest yet used at these wavelengths on this object. More than 80 emission lines have been recorded and identifications are offered for 90% of them, mostly with species also seen at optical wavelengths. The emission lines are little affected by either circumstellar reddening or optical depth effects. Evidence that the central star is hotter than 40,000 K is found and abundance for some species are derived. Eta Car is found to be overabundant in helium, but probably underabundant in iron in the gaseous state

  15. Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheze, Benoit; Gastineau, Pascal; Chevallier, Julien

    2011-01-01

    This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted. - Highlights: → Jet fuel demand is forecasted at the worldwide and regional level until 2025. → Regional heterogeneity must be considered when forecasting jet fuel demand. → World air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025. → World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period. → Technological progress will not be enough to decrease the world jet fuel demand.

  16. High rate, fast timing Glass RPC for the high $\\eta$ CMS muon detectors

    CERN Document Server

    INSPIRE-00185093; Lagarde, François; Laktineh, Imad; Buridon, Victor; Chen, Xiushan; Combaret, Christophe; Eynard, Alexis; Germani, Lionel; Grenier, Gerald; Mathez, Hervé; Mirabito, Laurent; Petrukhin, Alexei; Steen, Arnaud; Tromeur, William; Wang, Yi; Gong, A.; Moreau, Nathalie; de la Taille, Christophe; Dulucq, Fréderic

    2017-02-11

    The HL-LHC phase is designed to increase by an order of magnitude the amount of data to be collected by the LHC experiments. To achieve this goal in a reasonable time scale the instantaneous luminosity would also increase by an order of magnitude up to $6 \\cdot 10^{34}$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$. The region of the forward muon spectrometer ($|\\eta| > 1.6$) is not equipped with RPC stations. The increase of the expected particles rate up to 2 kHz/cm$^2$ ( including a safety factor 3 ) motivates the installation of RPC chambers to guarantee redundancy with the CSC chambers already present. The actual RPC technology of CMS cannot sustain the expected background level. A new generation Glass-RPC (GRPC) using low resistivity glass (LR) is proposed to equip at least the two most far away of the four high eta muon stations of CMS. The design of small size prototypes and the studies of their performances under high rate particles flux is presented.

  17. PKC{eta} is a negative regulator of AKT inhibiting the IGF-I induced proliferation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shahaf, Galit; Rotem-Dai, Noa; Koifman, Gabriela; Raveh-Amit, Hadas; Frost, Sigal A.; Livneh, Etta, E-mail: etta@bgu.ac.il

    2012-04-15

    The PI3K-AKT pathway is frequently activated in human cancers, including breast cancer, and its activation appears to be critical for tumor maintenance. Some malignant cells are dependent on activated AKT for their survival; tumors exhibiting elevated AKT activity show sensitivity to its inhibition, providing an Achilles heel for their treatment. Here we show that the PKC{eta} isoform is a negative regulator of the AKT signaling pathway. The IGF-I induced phosphorylation on Ser473 of AKT was inhibited by the PKC{eta}-induced expression in MCF-7 breast adenocarcinoma cancer cells. This was further confirmed in shRNA PKC{eta}-knocked-down MCF-7 cells, demonstrating elevated phosphorylation on AKT Ser473. While PKC{eta} exhibited negative regulation on AKT phosphorylation it did not alter the IGF-I induced ERK phosphorylation. However, it enhanced ERK phosphorylation when stimulated by PDGF. Moreover, its effects on IGF-I/AKT and PDGF/ERK pathways were in correlation with cell proliferation. We further show that both PKC{eta} and IGF-I confer protection against UV-induced apoptosis and cell death having additive effects. Although the protective effect of IGF-I involved activation of AKT, it was not affected by PKC{eta} expression, suggesting that PKC{eta} acts through a different route to increase cell survival. Hence, our studies show that PKC{eta} provides negative control on AKT pathway leading to reduced cell proliferation, and further suggest that its presence/absence in breast cancer cells will affect cell death, which could be of therapeutic value.

  18. Observation of a peak at 1.28 GeV in the etaππ system in the reaction γp -> etaπ+π-p

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, M.; Davenport, M.; Flower, P.; Hutton, J.S.; Kumar, B.R.; Morris, J.A.G.; Morris, J.V.; Sharp, P.H.; Lassalle, J.C.; Patrick, G.N.; Storr, K.M.; Axon, T.J.; Barberis, D.; Brodbeck, T.J.; Brookes, G.R.; Bunn, J.J.; Bussey, P.J.; Clegg, A.B.; Dainton, J.B.; Dickinson, B.; Diekmann, B.; Donnachie, A.; Ellison, R.J.; Flynn, P.J.; Galbraith, W.; Heinloth, K.; Henderson, R.C.W.; Hughes-Jones, R.E.; Ibbotson, M.; Jakob, H.P.; Jung, M.; Lafferty, G.D.; Lane, J.B.; Liebenau, V.; McClatchey, R.; Mercer, D.; Newton, D.; Paterson, C.; Paul, E.; Raine, C.; Reidenbach, M.; Rotscheidt, H.; Schloesser, A.; Skillicorn, I.O.; Smith, K.M.; Thompson, R.J.; Waite, A.P.; Worsell, M.F.

    1984-01-01

    A peak is reported in the etaπ + π - system, produced in the reaction γp->etaπ + π - p, at a mass of 1.28+-0.01 GeV with a width of 0.08+-0.02 GeV. Possible spin-parity assignments for the peak are shown to be Jsup(π)=1 - , Jsup(π)=1 + or Jsup(π)=2 + and interpretations of these assignments are discussed. (orig.)

  19. Analyzing temporal variation in the lethality of ETA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sánchez-Cuenca, Ignacio

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes time variation in the lethal violence of the terrorist organization ETA. Given the dynamic structure of the time series of fatalities, I look at the effect of a number of independent variables (the celebration of different types of elections, anti-ETA activity by extreme right-wing organizations and the GAL, police arrests, and other relevant events, such as the referendums on the Constitution and the Statute of Autonomy of Guernica. To do so, I have estimated several ARIMA models using the time series of fatalities between 1968 and 2007. Moreover, the results obtained are complemented by a historical-political analysis of the period of maximum violence, which took place during the Spanish transition to democracy.

    Este artículo analiza la variación temporal en la violencia letal de la organización terrorista ETA. Dada la estructura dinámica de la serie temporal de víctimas mortales, se estudia el efecto de una serie de variables independientes (celebración de distintos tipos de elecciones, actividad anti-ETA de la extrema derecha y del GAL, detenciones policiales y sucesos especiales como los referendos sobre la Constitución o el Estatuto de Autonomía de Guernica. Para ello, se estiman diversos modelos ARIMA con la serie trimestral de víctimas mortales entre 1968 y 2007. Además, se completan los resultados obtenidos con un análisis histórico-político del periodo de máxima violencia durante la transición a la democracia.

  20. Kinetics and mechanism of oxidation of 1-hydroxymethyl-eta/sup 3/-allypalladium chloride by p-benzoquinone in aqueous solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belov, A.P.; Kalabin, S.M.; Statsenko, O.N.

    1988-03-01

    /sup 1/H NMR spectroscopy was used to show that the primary product of the oxidation of the eta/sup 3/-allyl complex of palladium, (based on 1,3-butadiene-1-hydroxymethyl-eta/sup 3/-allylpalladium chloride), by the action of p-benzoquinone in acid aqueous solutions is 4-chloro-2-buten-1-o1. The reaction kinetics were studied colorimetrically. It was found that the rate of reaction is described by a kinetic equation of the second order (first with respect to each of the reagents). It was shown that the second order rate constant increases nonlinearly with increase in the concentration of the chloride ions and hydrogen ions, and tends to a constant value in the region of high concentrations of these ions. The values of the activation parameters and the isotopic kinetic effect were determined. The kinetic equation and the mechanism of the reaction studied were compared with those of the oxidation processes of unsubstituted eta/sup 3/-allyl complexes of palladium.

  1. Eta-Expansion Does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1996-01-01

    -sum type. For the latter case, it enables “The Trick.” In this article, we extend Gomard and Jones' partial evaluator for the &lgr;-calculus, &lgr;-Mix, with products and disjoint sums; we point out how eta-expansion for (finite) disjoint sums enable The Trick; we generalize our earlier work by identifying...

  2. Eta-Expansion Does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1995-01-01

    -sum type. For the latter case, it enables “The Trick.” In this article, we extend Gomard and Jones' partial evaluator for the &lgr;-calculus, &lgr;-Mix, with products and disjoint sums; we point out how eta-expansion for (finite) disjoint sums enable The Trick; we generalize our earlier work by identifying...

  3. Measurement of the {ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{eta}l{sup +}{nu} and {ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{eta}{prime}l{sup +}{nu} branching ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandenburg, G.; Cinabro, D.; Liu, T.; Saulnier, M.; Wilson, R.; Yamamoto, H.; Bergfeld, T.; Eisenstein, B.I.; Ernst, J.; Gladding, G.E.; Gollin, G.D.; Palmer, M.; Selen, M.; Thaler, J.J.; Edwards, K.W.; McLean, K.W.; Ogg, M.; Bellerive, A.; Britton, D.I.; Hyatt, E.R.F.; Janicek, R.; MacFarlane, D.B.; Patel, P.M.; Spaan, B.; Sadoff, A.J.; Ammar, R.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Besson, D.; Coppage, D.; Copty, N.; Davis, R.; Hancock, N.; Kotov, S.; Kravchenko, I.; Kwak, N.; Kubota, Y.; Lattery, M.; Momayezi, M.; Nelson, J.K.; Patton, S.; Poling, R.; Savinov, V.; Schrenk, S.; Wang, R.; Alam, M.S.; Kim, I.J.; Ling, Z.; Mahmood, A.H.; O`Neill, J.J.; Severini, H.; Sun, C.R.; Wappler, F.; Crawford, G.; Duboscq, J.E.; Fulton, R.; Fujino, D.; Gan, K.K.; Honscheid, K.; Kagan, H.; Kass, R.; Lee, J.; Sung, M.; White, C.; Wolf, A.; Zoeller, M.M.; Fu, X.; Nemati, B.; Ross, W.R.; Skubic, P.; Wood, M.; Bishai, M.; Fast, J.; Gerndt, E.; Hinson, J.W.; Miao, T.; Miller, D.H.; Modesitt, M.; Shibata, E.I.; Shipsey, I.P.J.; Wang, P.N.; Gibbons, L.; Johnson, S.D.; Kwon, Y.; Roberts, S.; Thorndike, E.H.; Coan, T.E.; Dominick, J.; Fadeyev, V.; Korolkov, I.; Lambrecht, M.; Sanghera, S.; Shelkov, V.; Skwarnicki, T.; Stroynowski, R.; Volobouev, I.; Wei, G.; Artuso, M.; Gao, M.; Goldberg, M.; He, D.; Horwitz, N.; Kopp, S.; Moneti, G.C.; Mountain, R.; Muheim, F.; Mukhin, Y.; Playfer, S.; Stone, S.; Xing, X.; Bartelt, J.; Csorna, S.E.; Jain, V.; Marka, S.; Gibaut, D.; Kinoshita, K.; Pomianowski, P.; Barish, B.; Chadha, M.; Chan, S.; Cowen, D.F.; Eigen, G.; Miller, J.S.; O`Grady, C.; Urheim, J.; Weinstein, A.J.; Wuerthwein, F.; Asner, D.M.; Athanas, M.; Bliss, D.W.; Brower, W.S.; Masek, G.; Paar, H.P.; Gronberg, J.; Korte, C.M.; Kutschke, R.; Menary, S.; Morrison, R.J.; Nakanishi, S.; Nelson, H.N.; Nelson, T.K.; Qiao, C.; Richman, J.D.; Roberts, D.; Ryd, A.; Tajima, H.; Witherell, M.S.; Balest, R.; Cho, K.; Ford, W.T.; Lohner, M.; Park, H.; Rankin, P.; Smith, J.G.; Alexander, J.P.; (CLEO Collaborat...

    1995-11-20

    Using the CLEO II detector we measure {ital B}({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{eta}{ital e}{sup +}{nu})/{ital B}({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{phi}{ital e}{sup +}{nu}) =1.24{plus_minus}0.12{plus_minus}0.15, {ital B}({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{eta}{prime}{ital e}{sup +}{nu})/{ital B} ({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{phi}{ital e}{sup +}{nu})=0.43{plus_minus}0.11{plus_minus}0.07, and {ital B}({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{eta}{prime}{ital e}{sup +}{nu})/{ital B} ({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{eta}{ital e}{sup +}{nu})=0.35{plus_minus}0.09{plus_minus}0.07. We find the ratio of vector to pseudoscalar final states, {ital B}{bold (}{ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}{phi}{ital e}{sup +}{nu})/{ital B} ({ital D}{sup +}{sub {ital s}}{r_arrow}({eta}+{eta}{prime}){ital e}{sup +}{nu}{bold )}=0.60{plus_minus}0.06{plus_minus}0.06, which is similar to the ratio found in nonstrange {ital D} decays. {copyright} {ital 1995} {ital The} {ital American} {ital Physical} {ital Society}.

  4. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  5. An Operational Short-Term Forecasting System for Regional Hydropower Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Labuhn, K. A.; Calappi, T. J.; MacNeil, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Niagara River is the natural outlet of Lake Erie and drains four of the five Great lakes. The river is used to move commerce and is home to both sport fishing and tourism industries. It also provides nearly 5 million kilowatts of hydropower for approximately 3.9 million homes. Due to a complex international treaty and the necessity of balancing water needs for an extensive tourism industry, the power entities operating on the river require detailed and accurate short-term river flow forecasts to maximize power output. A new forecast system is being evaluated that takes advantage of several previously independent components including the NOAA Lake Erie operational Forecast System (LEOFS), a previously developed HEC-RAS model, input from the New York Power Authority(NYPA) and Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and lateral flow forecasts for some of the tributaries provided by the NOAA Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC). The Corps of Engineers updated the HEC-RAS model of the upper Niagara River to use the output forcing from LEOFS and a planned Grass Island Pool elevation provided by the power entities. The entire system has been integrated at the NERFC; it will be run multiple times per day with results provided to the Niagara River Control Center operators. The new model helps improve discharge forecasts by better accounting for dynamic conditions on Lake Erie. LEOFS captures seiche events on the lake that are often several meters of displacement from still water level. These seiche events translate into flow spikes that HEC-RAS routes downstream. Knowledge of the peak arrival time helps improve operational decisions at the Grass Island Pool. This poster will compare and contrast results from the existing operational flow forecast and the new integrated LEOFS/HEC-RAS forecast. This additional model will supply the Niagara River Control Center operators with multiple forecasts of flow to help improve forecasting under a wider variety of conditions.

  6. Regional PV power estimation and forecast to mitigate the impact of high photovoltaic penetration on electric grid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierro, Marco; De Felice, Matteo; Maggioni, Enrico; Moser, David; Perotto, Alessandro; Spada, Francesco; Cornaro, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The growing photovoltaic generation results in a stochastic variability of the electric demand that could compromise the stability of the grid and increase the amount of energy reserve and the energy imbalance cost. On regional scale, solar power estimation and forecast is becoming essential for Distribution System Operators, Transmission System Operator, energy traders, and aggregators of generation. Indeed the estimation of regional PV power can be used for PV power supervision and real time control of residual load. Mid-term PV power forecast can be employed for transmission scheduling to reduce energy imbalance and related cost of penalties, residual load tracking, trading optimization, secondary energy reserve assessment. In this context, a new upscaling method was developed and used for estimation and mid-term forecast of the photovoltaic distributed generation in a small area in the north of Italy under the control of a local DSO. The method was based on spatial clustering of the PV fleet and neural networks models that input satellite or numerical weather prediction data (centered on cluster centroids) to estimate or predict the regional solar generation. It requires a low computational effort and very few input information should be provided by users. The power estimation model achieved a RMSE of 3% of installed capacity. Intra-day forecast (from 1 to 4 hours) obtained a RMSE of 5% - 7% while the one and two days forecast achieve to a RMSE of 7% and 7.5%. A model to estimate the forecast error and the prediction intervals was also developed. The photovoltaic production in the considered region provided the 6.9% of the electric consumption in 2015. Since the PV penetration is very similar to the one observed at national level (7.9%), this is a good case study to analyse the impact of PV generation on the electric grid and the effects of PV power forecast on transmission scheduling and on secondary reserve estimation. It appears that, already with 7% of PV

  7. Effect of Enzyme-Treated Asparagus Extract (ETAS) on Psychological Stress in Healthy Individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takanari, Jun; Nakahigashi, Jun; Sato, Atsuya; Waki, Hideaki; Miyazaki, Shogo; Uebaba, Kazuo; Hisajima, Tatsuya

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of Enzyme-Treated Asparagus Extract (ETAS) on improving stress response. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over trial was undertaken in healthy volunteers. ETAS (150 mg/d) or a placebo was consumed for 28 d, with a washout period. Psychological parameters were examined using a self-report scale questionnaire and psychological stress was applied using the Uchida-Kraepelin (U-K) test. During the stress load, autonomic nervous function was analyzed. After the stress load, a profile of mood states (POMS) psychological rating was performed, and serum cortisol, plasma catecholamine, salivary secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA), and salivary cortisol were analyzed. ETAS intake improved the self-reported rating for the items "Feel tired," "Hard to get up," and "Feel heavy" in the psychological questionnaire; ameliorated the self-reported rating for the items "Depression-Dejection" and "Fatigue" in the POMS questionnaire; and increased salivary sIgA levels after the U-K test. In contrast, serum and salivary cortisol levels, and plasma catecholamine did not change. During the U-K test, ETAS significantly upregulated the sympathetic nerve activity. Furthermore, ETAS intake significantly increased the number of answers and the number of correct answers in the U-K test, suggesting that it might improve office work performance with swiftness and accuracy under stressful conditions. In conclusion, ETAS supplementation reduced feelings of dysphoria and fatigue, ameliorated quality of sleep, and enhanced stress-load performance as well as promoted stress response by increasing salivary sIgA levels. These data suggest ETAS intake may exert beneficial effects, resulting from well-controlled stress management, in healthy individuals.

  8. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    observations and several years of archived forecasts, overall empirical error distributions termed 'overall error' were for each gauge derived for a range of relevant forecast lead times. b) The error distributions vary strongly with the hydrometeorological situation, therefore a subdivision into the hydrological cases 'low flow, 'rising flood', 'flood', flood recession' was introduced. c) For the sake of numerical compression, theoretical distributions were fitted to the empirical distributions using the method of moments. Here, the normal distribution was generally best suited. d) Further data compression was achieved by representing the distribution parameters as a function (second-order polynome) of lead time. In general, the 'overall error' obtained from the above procedure is most useful in regions where large human impact occurs and where the influence of the meteorological forecast is limited. In upstream regions however, forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atmosphere, which is contained in the spread of an ensemble forecast. Including this dynamically in the hydrological forecast uncertainty estimation requires prior elimination of the contribution of the weather forecast to the 'overall error'. This was achieved by calculating long series of hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The resulting error distribution is termed 'model error' and can be applied on hydrological ensemble forecasts, where ensemble rainfall forecasts are used as forcing. The concept will be illustrated by examples (good and bad ones) covering a wide range of catchment sizes, hydrometeorological regimes and quality of hydrological model calibration. The methodology to combine the static and dynamic shares of uncertainty will be presented in part II of this study.

  9. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  10. Forecasting the regional distribution and sufficiency of physicians in Japan with a coupled system dynamics-geographic information system model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Tomoki; Fujiwara, Kensuke; Ohba, Hisateru; Suzuki, Teppei; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2017-09-12

    In Japan, the shortage of physicians has been recognized as a major medical issue. In our previous study, we reported that the absolute shortage will be resolved in the long term, but maldistribution among specialties will persist. To address regional shortage, several Japanese medical schools increased existing quota and established "regional quotas." This study aims to assist policy makers in designing effective policies; we built a model for forecasting physician numbers by region to evaluate future physician supply-demand balances. For our case study, we selected Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan, a region displaying disparities in healthcare services availability between urban and rural areas. We combined a system dynamics (SD) model with geographic information system (GIS) technology to analyze the dynamic change in spatial distribution of indicators. For Hokkaido overall and for each secondary medical service area (SMSA) within the prefecture, we analyzed the total number of practicing physicians. For evaluating absolute shortage and maldistribution, we calculated sufficiency levels and Gini coefficient. Our study covered the period 2010-2030 in 5-year increments. According to our forecast, physician shortage in Hokkaido Prefecture will largely be resolved by 2020. Based on current policies, we forecast that four SMSAs in Hokkaido will continue to experience physician shortages past that date, but only one SMSA would still be understaffed in 2030. The results show the possibility that diminishing imbalances between SMSAs would not necessarily mean that regional maldistribution would be eliminated, as seen from the sufficiency levels of the various SMSAs. Urgent steps should be taken to place doctors in areas where our forecasting model predicts that physician shortages could occur in the future.

  11. Observation of an Anomalous Line Shape of the eta 'pi(+)pi(-) Mass Spectrum near the p(p)over-bar Mass Threshold in J/psi -> gamma eta 'pi(+)pi(-)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.; Ai, X. C.; Albayrak, O.; Albrecht, M.; Ambrose, D. J.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Bai, J. Z.; Ferroli, R. Baldini; Ban, Y.; Bennett, D. W.; Bennett, J. V.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bettoni, D.; Bian, J. M.; Bianchi, F.; Boger, E.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Cai, H.; Cai, X.; Cakir, O.; Calcaterra, A.; Cao, G. F.; Cetin, S. A.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, X.; Chen, X. R.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, X. K.; Cibinetto, G.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dbeyssi, A.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denig, A.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; De Mori, F.; Ding, Y.; Dong, C.; Dong, J.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Dou, Z. L.; Du, S. X.; Duan, P. F.; Fan, J. Z.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Fang, X.; Fang, Y.; Farinelli, R.; Fava, L.; Fedorov, O.; Feldbauer, F.; Felici, G.; Feng, C. Q.; Fioravanti, E.; Fritsch, M.; Fu, C. D.; Gao, Q.; Gao, X. L.; Gao, X. Y.; Gao, Y.; Gao, Z.; Garzia, I.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, L.; Gong, W. X.; Gradl, W.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, R. P.; Guo, Y.; Guo, Y. P.; Haddadi, Z.; Hafner, A.; Han, S.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; Heinsius, F. H.; Held, T.; Heng, Y. K.; Holtmann, T.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, C.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Hu, Y.; Huang, G. S.; Huang, Y. P.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, X. Z.; Huang, Y.; Huang, Z. L.; Hussain, T.; Ji, Q.; Ji, Q. P.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jiang, L. W.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiang, X. Y.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Johansson, T.; Julin, A.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kang, X. L.; Kang, X. S.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Ke, B. C.; Kiese, P.; Kliemt, R.; Kloss, B.; Kolcu, O. B.; Kopf, B.; Kornicer, M.; Kupsc, A.; Kuehn, W.; Lange, J. S.; Lara, M.; Larin, P.; Leithoff, H.; Leng, C.; Li, C.; Li, Cheng; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, F. Y.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, H. J.; Li, J. C.; Li, Jin; Li, K.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, P. R.; Li, Q. Y.; Li, T.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, Y. B.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Lin, D. X.; Liu, B.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, D.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, J.; Liu, J. B.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, J. Y.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, L. D.; Liu, P. L.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Y. Y.; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lou, X. C.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Y.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lyu, X. R.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, L. L.; Ma, M. M.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. N.; Ma, X. Y.; Ma, Y. M.; Maas, F. E.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Marcello, S.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Mezzadri, G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Mo, Y. J.; Morales, C. Morales; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Muramatsu, H.; Musiol, P.; Nefedov, Y.; Nerling, F.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Nisar, S.; Niu, S. L.; Niu, X. Y.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Pan, Y.; Patteri, P.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peng, H. P.; Peters, K.; Pettersson, J.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Prasad, V.; Qi, H. R.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, L. Q.; Qin, N.; Qin, X. S.; Qin, Z. H.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Redmer, C. F.; Ripka, M.; Rong, G.; Rosner, C. H.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Savrie, M.; Schnier, C.; Schoenning, K.; Schumann, S.; Shan, W.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, P. X.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shi, M.; Song, W. M.; Song, X. Y.; Sosio, S.; Spataro, S.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. H.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tapan, I.; Thorndike, E. H.; Tiemens, M.; Uman, I.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. L.; Wang, D.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, W.; Wang, W. P.; Wang, X. F.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. H.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wang, Z. Y.; Weber, T.; Wei, D. H.; Wei, J. B.; Weidenkaff, P.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wolke, M.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, L. J.; Wu, Z.; Xia, L.; Xia, L. G.; Xia, Y.; Xiao, D.; Xiao, H.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, J. J.; Xu, L.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, Q. N.; Xu, X. P.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, W. C.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. J.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, L.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yin, J. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, J. S.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Yuncu, A.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zeng, Z.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. J.; Zhang, J. L.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. Q.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. N.; Zhang, Y. T.; Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Z. H.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, J. W.; Zhao, J. Y.; Zhao, J. Z.; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, Q. W.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, W. J.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zhong, B.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhou, X. Y.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, Y. C.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zotti, L.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.

    2016-01-01

    Using 1.09 x 10(9) J/psi events collected by the BESIII experiment in 2012, we study the J / psi -> gamma eta'pi(+)pi(-) process and observe a significant abrupt change in the slope of the eta'pi(+)pi(-) invariant mass distribution at the proton-antiproton (p (p) over bar) mass threshold. We use two

  12. High rate, fast timing Glass RPC for the high ${\\eta}$ CMS muon detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Lagarde, F.; Laktineh, I.; Buridon, V.; Chen, X.; Combaret, C.; Eynard, A.; Germani, L.; Grenier, G.; Mathez, H.; Mirabito, L.; Petrukhin, A.; Steen, A.; Tromeur, W.; Wang, Y.; Gong, A.; Moreau, N.; de la Taille, C.; Dulucq, F.; Cimmino, A.; Crucy, S.; Fagot, A.; Gul, M.; Rios, A.A.O.; Tytgat, M.; Zaganidis, N.; Aly, S.; Assran, Y.; Radi, A.; Sayed, A.; Singh, G.; Abbrescia, M.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, M.; Pugliese, G.; Verwilligen, P.; Van Doninck, W.F.; Colafranceschi, S.; Sharmag, A.; Benussi, L.; Bianco, S.; Piccolo, D.; Primavera, F.; Bhatnagar, V.; Kumari, R.; Mehta, A.; Singh, J.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmed, W.; Asghar, M.I.; Awan, I.M.; Hoorani, R.; Muhammad, S.; Shahzad, H.; Shah, M.A.; Cho, S.W.; Choi, S.Y.; Hong, B.; Kang, M.H.; Lee, K.S.; Lim, J.H.; Park, S.K.; Kim, M.S.; Carpinteyro Bernardino, S.; Pedraza, I.; Uribe Estradam, C.; Carrillo Moreno, S.; Vazquez Valencia, F.; Pant, L.M.; Buontempo, S.; Cavallo, N.; Esposito, M.; Fabozzi, F.; Lanza, G.; Orso, I.; Lista, L.; Meola, S.; Merola, M.; Paolucci, P.; Thyssen, F.; Braghieri, A.; Magnani, A.; Montagna, P.; Riccardi, C.; Salvini, P.; Vai, I.; Vitulo, P.; Ban, Y.; Qian, S.J.; Choi, M.; Choi, Y.; Goh, J.; Kim, D.; Aleksandrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Iaydjiev, P.; Rodozov, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Bagaturia, I.; Lomidze, D.; Avila, C.; Cabrera, A.; Sanabria, J.C.; Crotty, I.; Vaitkus, J.

    2016-09-09

    The HL-LHC phase is designed to increase by an order of magnitude the amount of data to be collected by the LHC experiments. To achieve this goal in a reasonable time scale the instantaneous luminosity would also increase by an order of magnitude up to $6.10^{34} cm^{-2} s^{-1}$ . The region of the forward muon spectrometer ($|{\\eta}| > 1.6$) is not equipped with RPC stations. The increase of the expected particles rate up to $2 kHz/cm^{2}$ (including a safety factor 3) motivates the installation of RPC chambers to guarantee redundancy with the CSC chambers already present. The actual RPC technology of CMS cannot sustain the expected background level. The new technology that will be chosen should have a high rate capability and provides a good spatial and timing resolution. A new generation of Glass-RPC (GRPC) using low-resistivity (LR) glass is proposed to equip at least the two most far away of the four high ${\\eta}$ muon stations of CMS. First the design of small size prototypes and studies of their perfor...

  13. Turbidity of a Binary Fluid Mixture: Determining Eta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Donald T.

    1996-01-01

    A ground based (1-g) experiment is in progress that will measure the turbidity of a density-matched, binary fluid mixture extremely close to its liquid-liquid critical point. By covering the range of reduced temperatures t equivalent to (T-T(sub c)) / T(sub c) from 10(exp -8) to 10(exp -2), the turbidity measurements will allow the critical exponent eta to be determined. No experiment has precisely determined a value of the critical exponent eta, yet its value is significant to theorists in critical phenomena. Relatively simple critical phenomena, as in the liquid-liquid system studied here, serve as model systems for more complex systems near a critical point.

  14. Relative branching ratio of the {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup 0}{gamma}{gamma} decay channel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knecht, N.; Papandreou, Z.; Lolos, G.J.; Benslama, K.; Huber, G.M.; Li, S.; Bekrenev, V.; Briscoe, W.J.; Grosnick, D.; Isenhower, D.; Koetke, D.D.; Kozlenko, N.G.; Kruglov, S.; Manley, D.M.; Manweiler, R.; McDonald, S.; Olmsted, J.; Shafi, A.; Stanislaus, T.D.S

    2004-06-03

    The {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup 0}{gamma}{gamma} rare decay was measured at the AGS with the Crystal Ball photon spectrometer and its relative branching ratio was extracted to be B{sub 1}=(8.3{+-}2.8{+-}1.4)x10{sup -4}, based on the analysis of 3x10{sup 7} detected {eta} mesons. This leads to a lower partial width for this eta channel than past measurements and is in line with chiral perturbation theory calculations.

  15. Measurement of anti pp→π0π0, π0eta0 in the T and U-meson region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dulude, R.S.; Lanou, R.E.; Massimo, J.T.; Peaslee, D.C.; Thornton, R.K.; Barton, D.S.; Marx, M.; Nelson, B.A.; Rosenson, L.; DeMarzo, C.; Guerriero, L.; Posa, F.; Vaccari, E.; Waldner, F.

    1978-01-01

    Measurements are presented from a counter-optical spark chamber experiment of the differential cross sections for anti ppAπ 0 π 0 ,π 0 eta 0 at 25 momenta in the range 1.1-2.0 GeV/c (c.m. energy 2.12 to 2.43 GeV). Approximately 750000 pictures were taken in the experiment. (Auth.)

  16. Reaction π-p → eta'n in the 15-40 GeV/c momentum range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apel, W.D.; Augenstein, K.H.; Krueger, M.; Mueller, H.; Schinzel, D.; Schneider, H.; Sigurdsson, G.; Bertolucci, E.; Mannelli, I.; Pierazzini, G.M.; Quaglia, M.; Scribano, A.; Sergiampietri, F.; Vincelli, M.L.; Donskov, S.V.; Inyakin, A.V.; Johnson, R.; Kachanov, V.A.; Krasnokutsky, R.N.; Lednev, A.A.; Mikhailov, Yu.V.; Prokoshkin, Yu.D.; Shuvalov, R.S.; Kittenberger, V.; Leder, G.; Steuer, M.

    1979-01-01

    Measurements were made of the cross section of the reactions π - p → eta'(958)n, eta' → 2γ at momenta of 15, 20, 25, 30, and 40 GeV/c. The experiment was carried out on the IHEP 70 GeV accelerator using the 648 channel hodoscope spectrometer NICE for γ-ray detection. A total of 6000 eta' mesons were recorded. A sharp drop is seen in the differential cross section for t → 0. The dependences of the differential cross sections π - p → eta'n and π-p → etan on t are identical. On the basis of the ratio of the cross sections for these reactions at t = 0, i.e. R(eta'/n)sub(t=0) = 0.55 +- 0.06, the singlet-octet mixing angle for pseudoscalar mesons was determined to be β = -(18.2 +- 1.4) 0 . (Auth.)

  17. A measurement of the phase difference of $\\eta_{00}$ and $\\eta_{+-}$ in CP violating $K^{0}$ $\\rightarrow$ 2$\\pi$ decays

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    CP violation is well established in the $K^{0}\\overline{ K}^{0}$ system. In the phenomenology of $K^{0}$-decay the phase of the ratio of decay amplitudes $\\eta$ of CP conserving and CP violating two pion decays is given by CPT and unitarity to be 'arc tan' 1/2 $\\Gamma_{S}$ / $(M_{L}-M_{S}) = 43.7 \\pm 0.2^{\\circ}$. It is the purpose of this experiment to test the equality of this phase for the decay into neutral and charged pions, respectively. The phase of $\\eta$ is determined from the time-dependence of the rate of kaon decays into two pions, using the NA31 detector in a modified beam with $K_{S}$ and $K_{L}$ in interference.

  18. Production of $\\eta$ mesons in 200 AGeV S+S and S+Au reactions

    CERN Document Server

    Albrecht, R.; Awes, T.C.; Barlag, C.; Berger, F.; Bloomer, M.; Blume, C.; Bock, D.; Bock, R.; Bohne, E.M.; Bucher, D.; Claussen, A.; Clewing, G.; Debbe, R.; Dragon, L.; Eklund, A.; Fokin, S.; Garpman, S.; Glasow, R.; Gustafsson, H.A.; Gutbrod, H.H.; Hansen, O.; Holker, G.; Idh, J.; Ippolitov, M.; Jacobs, P.; Kampert, K.H.; Karadev, K.; Kolb, B.W.; Lebedev, A.; Lohner, H.; Lund, I.; Manko, V.; Moskowitz, B.; Nikolaev, S.; Obenshain, F.E.; Oskarsson, A.; Otterlund, I.; Peitzmann, T.; Plasil, F.; Poskanzer, Arthur M.; Purschke, M.; Roters, B.; Santo, R.; Schmidt, H.R.; Soderstrom, K.; Sorensen, S.P.; Stankus, P.; Steffens, K.; Steinhauser, P.; Stenlund, E.; Stuken, D.; Vinogradov, A.; Wegner, H.E.; Young, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    Minimum Bias production cross sections of $\\eta$ mesons have been measured in 200AGeV S+Au and S+S collisions at the CERN SPS by reconstructing the $\\eta\\rightarrow\\gamma\\gamma$ decay. The measurements have been made over the rapidity range $2.1 \\leq y \\leq 2.9$ using the leadglass spectrometer of WA80. Within the statistical and systematical uncertainties the spectral shapes of $\\pi~0$ and $\\eta$ mesons yields are identical when their invariant differential cross section is plotted as a function of the transverse mass. The relative normalization of the $\\eta$ to $\\pi~0$ transverse mass spectra is found to be $0.53 \\pm 0.07$ for S+Au and $0.43 \\pm 0.15$ for S+S reactions. Extrapolation to full phase space leads to an integrated cross section ratio of $\\eta$ to $\\pi~0$ mesons of $0.15 \\pm 0.02 {\\rm (stat.)} \\pm 0.02 {\\rm (syst.)}$, and $0.12 \\pm 0.03 {\\rm (stat.)} \\pm 0.02 {\\rm (syst.)}$ for S+Au and S+S collisions, respectively.

  19. Forecasting droughts in West Africa: Operational practice and refined seasonal precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliefernicht, Jan; Siegmund, Jonatan; Seidel, Jochen; Arnold, Hanna; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation forecasts for the upcoming rainy seasons are one of the most important sources of information for an early warning of droughts and water scarcity in West Africa. The meteorological services in West Africa perform seasonal precipitation forecasts within the framework of PRESAO (the West African climate outlook forum) since the end of the 1990s. Various sources of information and statistical techniques are used by the individual services to provide a harmonized seasonal precipitation forecasts for decision makers in West Africa. In this study, we present a detailed overview of the operational practice in West Africa including a first statistical assessment of the performance of the precipitation forecasts for drought situations for the past 18 years (1998 to 2015). In addition, a long-term hindcasts (1982 to 2009) and a semi-operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 using statistical and/or dynamical downscaling are performed to refine the precipitation forecasts from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), a global ensemble prediction system. This information is post-processed to provide user-oriented precipitation indices such as the onset of the rainy season for supporting water and land use management for rain-fed agriculture. The evaluation of the individual techniques is performed focusing on water-scarce regions of the Volta basin in Burkina Faso and Ghana. The forecasts of the individual techniques are compared to state-of-the-art global observed precipitation products and a novel precipitation database based on long-term daily rain-gage measurements provided by the national meteorological services. The statistical assessment of the PRESAO forecasts indicates skillful seasonal precipitation forecasts for many locations in the Volta basin, particularly for years with water deficits. The operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 illustrates the high potential of a physically-based downscaling for this region but still shows

  20. Religion, evolution, and mental health: attachment theory and ETAS theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flannelly, Kevin J; Galek, Kathleen

    2010-09-01

    This article reviews the historical origins of Attachment Theory and Evolutionary Threat Assessment Systems Theory (ETAS Theory), their evolutionary basis and their application in research on religion and mental health. Attachment Theory has been most commonly applied to religion and mental health in research on God as an attachment figure, which has shown that secure attachment to God is positively associated with psychological well-being. Its broader application to religion and mental health is comprehensively discussed by Kirkpatrick (2005). ETAS Theory explains why certain religious beliefs--including beliefs about God and life-after-death--should have an adverse association, an advantageous association, or no association at all with mental health. Moreover, it makes specific predictions to this effect, which have been confirmed, in part. The authors advocate the application of ETAS Theory in research on religion and mental health because it explains how religious and other beliefs related to the dangerousness of the world can directly affect psychiatric symptoms through their affects on specific brain structures.

  1. Measurements of the branching fractions for the semileptonic decays D-s(+) -> phi e(+)v(e), phi mu(+)v(mu), eta mu(+)v(mu) and eta 'mu(+)v(mu)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M.N.; Ahmed, S.; Albrecht, M.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Haddadi, Z.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Tiemens, M.

    2018-01-01

    By analyzing 482 pb(-1) of e(+) e(-) collision data collected at the center-of-mass energy root s = 4.009 GeV with the BESIII detector, we measure the branching fractions for the semi-leptonic decays D-s(+) -> phi e(+)v(e), phi mu(+)v(mu), eta mu(+)v(mu) and eta'mu(+)v(mu) to be B(D-s(+) -> phi

  2. Magnetic diagnostics for the proto-eta Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, J.L.; Aso, Y.; Ueda, M.; Ferreira, J.G.

    1991-04-01

    This work gives a general view of the magnetic diagnostics rat will be used in the Proto-Eta Tokamak. These diagnostics will be useful tools to measure currents, electric and magnetic fields involved in the plasma magnetic confinement. (author)

  3. ETA y el Nacionalismo Vasco en la Transición. Análisis del tratamiento periodístico de la organización ETA en un periódico nacionalista vasco : Deia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macario Hernández Nieto

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Durante la Transición una parte importante de la sociedad vasca tuvo una postura claramente favorable a la violencia de ETA. Por una parte el abertziismo radical que expresamente defendía la actividad de esta organización, por otra, el nacionalismo moderado cuyo referente era el Partido Nacionalista Vasco (PNV y su medio de expresión, el periódico Deia. En este sector social se da la paradoja de que se condenaban los atentados y al mismo tiempo se mantenía una actitud de comprensión fiada los miembros y la actividad de ETA. El análisis del tratamiento periodístico de Deia documenta esta paradójica posición del nacionalismo vasco moderado que resulta favorable a la organización ETA.During the Transition an important pan of ttie Basque society clearly supported ETA's violence. On the one tiand, tfie radical abertzalismo, whicti openly defended tfie activities of ttiis organisation. On ttie otfier hand, the modérate nationalism, whose referent was the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV and its supporting media, Deia newspaper. There is a paradox in the attitude of this social group since they condemned the terrorist attacks but at the same time they had a sympathetic attitude towards ETA's members and activities. The analysis of the journalistic treatment by Deia provides evidence of this paradoxical position of the moderate Basque nationalism in favour of ETA.

  4. Measurements of $\\jpsi$ decays into $\\omega\\pio$, $\\omega\\eta$, and $\\omega\\etap$

    OpenAIRE

    Ablikim, M.

    2005-01-01

    Based on $5.8 \\times 10^7 \\jpsi$ events collected with BESII at the Beijing Electron-Positron Collider (BEPC), the decay branching fractions of $\\jpsi\\to\\omega\\pio$, $\\omega\\eta$, and $\\omega\\etap$ are measured using different $\\eta$ and $\\etap$ decay modes. The results are higher than previous measurements. The $\\omega\\pio$ electromagnetic form factor is also obtained.

  5. Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada's Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Rita; Teakles, Andrew; Baik, Jonathan; Vingarzan, Roxanne; Jones, Keith

    2018-05-01

    Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada's operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode

  6. Measurement of $\\eta$ production in two and three-jet events from hadronic Z decays at LEP

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M; Adriani, O; Aguilar-Benítez, M; Ahlen, S P; Alpat, B; Alcaraz, J; Allaby, James V; Aloisio, A; Alverson, G; Alviggi, M G; Ambrosi, G; Anderhub, H; Andreev, V P; Angelescu, T; Antreasyan, D; Arefev, A; Azemoon, T; Aziz, T; Bagnaia, P; Baksay, L; Ball, R C; Banerjee, S; Banicz, K; Barillère, R; Barone, L; Bartalini, P; Baschirotto, A; Basile, M; Battiston, R; Bay, A; Becattini, F; Becker, U; Behner, F; Bencze, G L; Berdugo, J; Berges, P; Bertucci, B; Betev, B L; Biasini, M; Biland, A; Bilei, G M; Blaising, J J; Bobbink, Gerjan J; Böck, R K; Böhm, A; Borgia, B; Boucham, A; Bourilkov, D; Bourquin, Maurice; Boutigny, D; Brambilla, Elena; Branson, J G; Brigljevic, V; Brock, I C; Buijs, A; Bujak, A T; Burger, J D; Burger, W J; Burgos, C; Busenitz, J K; Buytenhuijs, A O; Cai, X D; Campanelli, M; Capell, M; Cara Romeo, G; Caria, M; Carlino, G; Cartacci, A M; Casaus, J; Castellini, G; Castello, R; Cavallari, F; Cavallo, N; Cecchi, C; Cerrada-Canales, M; Cesaroni, F; Chamizo-Llatas, M; Chan, A; Chang, Y H; Chaturvedi, U K; Chemarin, M; Chen, A; Chen, C; Chen, G; Chen, G M; Chen, H F; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Chéreau, X J; Chiefari, G; Chien, C Y; Choi, M T; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, F; Civinini, C; Clare, I; Clare, R; Coan, T E; Cohn, H O; Coignet, G; Colijn, A P; Colino, N; Commichau, V; Costantini, S; Cotorobai, F; de la Cruz, B; Dai, T S; D'Alessandro, R; De Asmundis, R; De Boeck, H; Degré, A; Deiters, K; Dénes, E; Denes, P; De Notaristefani, F; DiBitonto, Daryl; Diemoz, M; Van Dierendonck, D N; Di Lodovico, F; Dionisi, C; Dittmar, Michael; Dominguez, A; Doria, A; Dorne, I; Dova, M T; Drago, E; Duchesneau, D; Duinker, P; Durán, I; Dutta, S; Easo, S; Efremenko, Yu V; El-Mamouni, H; Engler, A; Eppling, F J; Erné, F C; Ernenwein, J P; Extermann, Pierre; Fabbretti, R; Fabre, M; Faccini, R; Falciano, S; Favara, A; Fay, J; Felcini, Marta; Ferguson, T; Fernández, D; Fernández, G; Ferroni, F; Fesefeldt, H S; Fiandrini, E; Field, J H; Filthaut, Frank; Fisher, P H; Forconi, G; Fredj, L; Freudenreich, Klaus; Gailloud, M; Galaktionov, Yu; Ganguli, S N; García-Abia, P; Gau, S S; Gentile, S; Gerald, J; Gheordanescu, N; Giagu, S; Goldfarb, S; Goldstein, J; Gong, Z F; González, E; Gougas, Andreas; Goujon, D; Gratta, Giorgio; Grünewald, M W; Gupta, V K; Gurtu, A; Gustafson, H R; Gutay, L J; Hartmann, B; Hasan, A; He, J T; Hebbeker, T; Hervé, A; Hilgers, K; Van Hoek, W C; Hofer, H; Hoorani, H; Hou, S R; Hu, G; Ilyas, M M; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janssen, H; Jin, B N; Jones, L W; de Jong, P; Josa-Mutuberria, I; Kasser, A; Khan, R A; Kamyshkov, Yu A; Kapinos, P; Kapustinsky, J S; Karyotakis, Yu; Kaur, M; Kienzle-Focacci, M N; Kim, D; Kim, J K; Kim, S C; Kim, Y G; Kinnison, W W; Kirkby, A; Kirkby, D; Kirkby, Jasper; Kittel, E W; Klimentov, A; König, A C; Koffeman, E; Kornadt, O; Koutsenko, V F; Koulbardis, A; Krämer, R W; Kramer, T; Krenz, W; Kuijten, H; Kunin, A; Ladrón de Guevara, P; Landi, G; Lapoint, C; Lassila-Perini, K M; Laurikainen, P; Lebeau, M; Lebedev, A; Lebrun, P; Lecomte, P; Lecoq, P; Le Coultre, P; Lee Jae Sik; Lee, K Y; Leggett, C; Le Goff, J M; Leiste, R; Lenti, M; Leonardi, E; Levchenko, P M; Li Chuan; Lieb, E H; Lin, W T; Linde, Frank L; Lindemann, B; Lista, L; Liu, Z A; Lohmann, W; Longo, E; Lu, W; Lü, Y S; Lübelsmeyer, K; Luci, C; Luckey, D; Ludovici, L; Luminari, L; Lustermann, W; Ma Wen Gan; Macchiolo, A; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Malgeri, L; Malinin, A; Maña, C; Mangla, S; Maolinbay, M; Marchesini, P A; Marin, A; Martin, J P; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; Mazumdar, K; McNally, D; Mele, S; Merola, L; Meschini, M; Metzger, W J; Mi, Y; Mihul, A; Van Mil, A J W; Mirabelli, G; Mnich, J; Möller, M; Monteleoni, B; Moore, R; Morganti, S; Mount, R; Müller, S; Muheim, F; Nagy, E; Nahn, S; Napolitano, M; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Newman, H; Nippe, A; Nowak, H; Organtini, G; Ostonen, R; Pandoulas, D; Paoletti, S; Paolucci, P; Pascale, G; Passaleva, G; Patricelli, S; Paul, T; Pauluzzi, M; Paus, C; Pauss, Felicitas; Pei, Y J; Pensotti, S; Perret-Gallix, D; Petrak, S; Pevsner, A; Piccolo, D; Pieri, M; Pinto, J C; Piroué, P A; Pistolesi, E; Plyaskin, V; Pohl, M; Pozhidaev, V; Postema, H; Produit, N; Raghavan, R; Rahal-Callot, G; Rancoita, P G; Rattaggi, M; Raven, G; Razis, P A; Read, K; Redaelli, M; Ren, D; Rescigno, M; Reucroft, S; Ricker, A; Riemann, S; Riemers, B C; Riles, K; Rind, O; Ro, S; Robohm, A; Rodin, J; Rodríguez-Calonge, F J; Roe, B P; Röhner, M; Röhner, S; Romero, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rosselet, P; Van Rossum, W; Roth, S; Rubio, Juan Antonio; Rykaczewski, H; Salicio, J; Salicio, J M; Sánchez, E; Santocchia, A; Sarakinos, M E; Sarkar, S; Sassowsky, M; Sauvage, G; Schäfer, C; Shchegelskii, V; Schmitz, D; Schmitz, P; Schneegans, M; Schöneich, B; Scholz, N; Schopper, Herwig Franz; Schotanus, D J; Schulte, R; Schultze, K; Schwenke, J; Schwering, G; Sciacca, C; Seiler, P G; Sens, Johannes C; Servoli, L; Shevchenko, S; Shivarov, N; Shoutko, V; Shukla, J; Shumilov, E; Son, D; Sopczak, André; Soulimov, V; Smith, B; Spickermann, T; Spillantini, P; Steuer, M; Stickland, D P; Sticozzi, F; Stone, H; Stoyanov, B; Strauch, K; Sudhakar, K; Sultanov, G G; Sun, L Z; Susinno, G F; Suter, H; Swain, J D; Tang, X W; Tauscher, Ludwig; Taylor, L; Ting, Samuel C C; Ting, S M; Toker, O; Tonisch, F; Tonutti, M; Tonwar, S C; Tóth, J; Tsaregorodtsev, A Yu; Tsipolitis, G; Tully, C; Tuchscherer, H; Ulbricht, J; Urbàn, L; Uwer, U; Valente, E; Van de Walle, R T; Vetlitskii, I; Viertel, Gert M; Vivargent, M; Völkert, R; Vogel, H; Vogt, H; Vorobev, I; Vorobyov, A A; Vuilleumier, L; Wadhwa, M; Wallraff, W; Wang, J C; Wang, X L; Wang, Y F; Wang, Z M; Weber, A; Weill, R; Willmott, C; Wittgenstein, F; Wu, S X; Wynhoff, S; Xu, J; Xu, Z Z; Yang, B Z; Yang, C G; Yao, X Y; Ye, J B; Yeh, S C; You, J M; Zaccardelli, C; Zalite, A; Zemp, P; Zeng, J Y; Zeng, Y; Zhang, Z; Zhang, Z P; Zhou, B; Zhou, G J; Zhou, J F; Zhou, Y; Zhu, G Y; Zhu, R Y; Zichichi, Antonino; Van der Zwaan, B C C

    1996-01-01

    The inclusive production of \\eta mesons has been studied using 1.6 million hadronic Z decays collected with the L3 detector. The \\eta multiplicity per event, the multiplicity for two-jet and three-jet events separately, and the multiplicity in each jet have been measured and compared with the predictions of different Monte Carlo programs. The momentum spectra of \\eta in each jet have also been measured. We observe that the measured \\eta momentum spectrum in quark-enriched jets agrees well with the Monte Carlo prediction while in gluon-enriched jets it is harder than that predicted by the Monte Carlo models.

  7. LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES

    Science.gov (United States)

    ; Organization Search Search Landlubber's forecast: "City, St" or zip code (Pan/Zoom for Marine) Search SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES (Click on the NWS Forecast Center/Office of interest to link to that Marine Forecasts in text form ) Coastal NWS Forecast Offices have regionally focused marine webpages

  8. Search for B^0 meson decays to \\pi^0 K^0_S K^0_S, \\eta K^0_S K^0_S, and \\eta^{\\prime}K^0_S K^0_S

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2009-05-08

    We describe searches for B{sup 0} meson decays to the charmless final states {pi}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}, {eta}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}, and {eta}{prime}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}. The data sample corresponds to 467 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs produced in e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation and collected with the BABAR detector at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. We find no significant signals and determine the 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions, in units of 10{sup -7}, {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {pi}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}) < 12, {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}) < 10, and {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}) < 20.

  9. The regional geological hazard forecast based on rainfall and WebGIS in Hubei, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guizhou; Chao, Yi; Xu, Hongwen

    2008-10-01

    Various disasters have been a serious threat to human and are increasing over time. The reduction and prevention of hazard is the largest problem faced by local governments. The study of disasters has drawn more and more attention mainly due to increasing awareness of the socio-economic impact of disasters. Hubei province, one of the highest economic developing provinces in China, suffered big economic losses from geo-hazards in recent years due to frequent geo-hazard events with the estimated damage of approximately 3000 million RMB. It is therefore important to establish an efficient way to mitigate potential damage and reduce losses of property and life derived from disasters. This paper presents the procedure of setting up a regional geological hazard forecast and information releasing system of Hubei province with the combination of advanced techniques such as World Wide Web (WWW), database online and ASP based on WEBGIS platform (MAPGIS-IMS) and rainfall information. A Web-based interface was developed using a three-tiered architecture based on client-server technology in this system. The study focused on the upload of the rainfall data, the definition of rainfall threshold values, the creation of geological disaster warning map and the forecast of geohazard relating to the rainfall. Its purposes are to contribute to the management of mass individual and regional geological disaster spatial data, help to forecast the conditional probabilities of occurrence of various disasters that might be posed by the rainfall, and release forecasting information of Hubei province timely via the internet throughout all levels of government, the private and nonprofit sectors, and the academic community. This system has worked efficiently and stably in the internet environment which is strongly connected with meteorological observatory. Environment Station of Hubei Province are making increased use of our Web-tool to assist in the decision-making process to analyze geo

  10. Pollen Dispersion Forecast At Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangin, A.; Asthma Forecast System Team

    The forecast of the pollen concentration is generally based on an identification of sim- ilar coincidence of measured pollen at given points and meteorological data that is searched in an archive and which, with the help of experts, allows building a predicted value. This may be classified under the family of statistical approaches for forecast- ing. While palynologists make these methods more and more accurate with the help of innovative techniques of regression against empirical rules and/or evolving mathe- matical structures (e.g. neural networks), the spatial dispersion of the pollen is not or poorly considered, mainly because it requires a lot of means and technique that are not familiar to this scientific discipline. The research on pollen forecasts are presently mainly focused on the problematic of modeling the behavior of pollen trends and sea- sons at one location regardless of the topography, the locations of emitters, the relative strengths of emitter, in one word the Sspatial backgroundT. This research work was a & cedil;successful attempt to go a step further combining this SlocalT approach with a trans- & cedil;port/dispersion modeling allowing the access to mapping of concentration. The areas of interest that were selected for the demonstration of feasibility were 200x200km zones centered on Cordoba, Barcelona and Bologna and four pollen types were ex- amined, namely: Cupressaceae, Olea europaea, Poaceae and Parietaria. At the end of this three-year European project in December 2001, the system was fully deployed and validated. The multidisciplinary team will present the original methodologies that were derived for modeling the numerous aspects of this problem and also some con- clusions regarding potential extent to other areas and taxa.

  11. Enhanced regional forecasting considering single wind farm distribution for upscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremen, Lueder von; Saleck, Nadja; Heinemann, Detlev

    2007-01-01

    With increasing wind power penetration the need for more accurate wind power forecasts increases to raise the market value of wind power. State-of-the-art wind power forecasting tools are considered either statistical or physical. Fundamentally new techniques are rare, thus it is tried to establish a new approach. The spatial decomposition of wind power generation in Germany can be done with principle component analysis to extract the main pattern of variability. They have a physical meaning when linked with typical weather situation. The first four eigenvectors explain about 94 % of the observed variance. The time-evolving principle components are linked with the total wind power feed-in in Germany and are used for its estimation. A new wind power forecasting model has been implemented with this approach and shows very good results that are comparable with state-of-the-art commercial wind power forecast models. The day-ahead forecast error for a common intercomparison period Jan-Jul 2006 is 4.4 %. The suggested approach offers wide ranges for future developments (e.g. several NWP models), because it is computationally very cheap to run

  12. Measurements of the Mass and Width of the eta(c) Using the Decay psi -> gamma eta(c)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Alberto, D.; Ambrose, D. J.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Ferroli, R. B.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M. B.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A. C.; Cao, G. F.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, H. X.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, W. L.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kuehn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, S. L.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Yong; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. Y.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Muchnoi, N. Yu; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S. P.; Park, J. W.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Thorndike, E. H.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. F.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, S. P.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A. Z.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. S.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, Jingwei; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

    2012-01-01

    The mass and width of the lowest-lying S-wave spin singlet charmonium state, the eta(c), are measured using a data sample of 1: 06 x 10(8) psi (3686) decays collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII storage ring. We use a model that incorporates full interference between the signal reaction,

  13. Hispaania ei usu ETA rahupakkumisse / Heiki Suurkask

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Suurkask, Heiki, 1972-

    2004-01-01

    Baski terrorirühmitus kutsus uut peaministrit Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapaterot dialoogile, hiljuti valimised võitnud Sotsialistlik Töölispartei teatas vastuseks, et ETA on terroristlik rühmitus ja selle avaldustele tähelepanu ei osutata. Vt. samas: Vaherahule järgnes terrorilaine

  14. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  15. A convenient synthetic route to benz[cd]azulenes: versatile ligands with the potential to bind metals in an eta5, eta6, or eta7 fashion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balduzzi, Sonya; Müller-Bunz, Helge; McGlinchey, Michael J

    2004-10-25

    A facile method for preparing the 2H-benz[cd]azulene system, based upon an elaboration of the guaiazulene framework, is presented. Aerial oxidation to the corresponding 8-(2-propylidene)-benz[cd]azulene, and also cycloaddition reactions with tetracyanoethylene (TCNE), are described. The first X-ray crystal structure of a 2H-benz[cd]azulene, as an eta6-coordinated Cr(CO)3 complex, is reported.

  16. Measurement of inclusive eta production in e+e- interactions near charm threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, F.C.

    1981-01-01

    We have measured the inclusive cross section for eta production in e + e - interactions near charm threshold using the Crystal Ball detector at SPEAR. By comparing the inclusive eta production above and below charm threshold we obtain the limits: R(e + e - →FFX) BR(F→etax)<0.3 (90% C.L., E/sub c.m./<4.5 GeV); BR(D→etax)<0.13

  17. Search for the eta C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garren, L.A.

    1982-01-01

    In an experiment performed at the Alternating Gradient Synchrotron at Brookhaven National Laboratory, we searched for narrow resonances in the reaction pi minus p -> X n, X -> gamma gamma at 13 GeV. We used a double-arm spectrometer with lead glass and scintillation elements. No resonances were observed above mass 2.8 in the gamma-gamma spectrum. The upper limit for the eta c cross section times branching ratio is 23 pb

  18. Synthesis and characterization of lead sulphide thin films from ethanolamine (ETA) complexing agent chemical bath

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gashaw Hone, Fekadu; Dejene, F. B.

    2018-02-01

    Polycrystalline lead sulphide (PbS) thin films were grown on glass substrates by chemical bath deposition route using ethanolamine (ETA) as a complexing agent. The effects of ETA molar concentration on the structural, morphological, electrical and optical properties of lead sulphide thin films were thoroughly studied. The XRD analyses revealed that all the deposited thin films were face center cubic crystal structure and their preferred orientations were varied along the (111) and (200) planes. The XRD results further confirmed that ETA concentration had a significant effects on the strain, average crystalline size and dislocation density of the deposited thin films. The SEM studies illustrated the evolution and transformation of surface morphology as ETA molar concentration increased from 0.41 M to 1.64 M. The energy dispersive x-ray analysis was used to verify the compositional elements of the deposited thin films. Optical spectroscopy investigation established that the band gap of the PbS thin films were reduced from 0.98 eV to 0.68 eV as ETA concentration increased. The photoluminescence spectra showed a well defined peak at 428 nm and shoulder around 468 nm for all PbS thin films. The electrical resistivity of the thin films found in the order of 103 Ω cm at room temperature and decreased as the ETA molar concentration was increased.

  19. The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

    2015-10-01

    The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

  20. ETA-II experiments for determining advanced radiographic capabilities of induction linacs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, J.T.; Caporaso, G.J.; Clark, J.C.; Kirbie, H.C.; Chen, Y.J.; Lund, S.M.; Westenskow, G.A.; Paul, A.C.

    1997-05-01

    LLNL has proposed a multi-pulsed, multi-line of sight radiographic machine based on induction linac technology to be the core of the advanced hydrotest facility (AHF) being considered by the Department of Energy. In order to test the new technologies being developed for AHF we have recommissioned the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA II). We will conduct our initial experiments using kickers and large angle bending optics at the ETA II facility. Our current status and our proposed experimental schedule will be presented

  1. Evidence for the Rare Decay, B--> J/psi eta K

    CERN Document Server

    Toki, W

    2003-01-01

    We report evidence for the B meson decays, B sup+- -> J/psi eta K sup+- and B sup 0 -> J/psi eta K sub S sup 0 , using 90 million B(bar B) events collected at the UPSILON(4S) resonance with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II e sup + e sup - asymmetric-energy storage ring. We obtain preliminary branching fractions in the charged and neutral channels of (10.8 +- 2.3(stat.) +- 2.4(syst.)) x 10 sup - sup 5 and (8.4 +- 2.6(stat.) +- 2.7(syst.)) x 10 sup - sup 5 , respectively.

  2. Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Donghai; Minnis, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

  3. Expression of ET(A) and ET(B) receptor mRNA in human cerebral arteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen-Schwartz, J; Szok, D; Edvinsson, L

    2002-01-01

    The vascular effects of endothelins (ET) are in mammals mediated via two receptor subtypes, endothelin A (ET(A), mainly constrictive) and endothelin B (ET(B), mainly dilating) receptors. We have examined the presence of ET(A) and ET(B) receptor mRNA using the reverse transcription polymerase chai...

  4. Bis(tetramethylcyclopentadienyl)titanium chemistry. Molecular structures of [(C(5)HMe(4))(mu-eta(1) : eta(5)-C(5)Me(4))Ti](2) and [(C(5)HMe(4))(2)Ti]N-2(2)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    deWolf, JM; Blaauw, R; Meetsma, A; Teuben, JH; Gyepes, R; Varga, [No Value; Mach, K; Veldman, N; Spek, AL

    1996-01-01

    Thermolysis of bis(tetramethylcyclopentadienyl)-stabilized titanium(III) compounds (C(5)HMe(4))(2)TiR (R = Me (2), Ph (3)) yields, in marked contrast with the bis(pentamethylcyclopentadienyl) analog, the dimeric product [(C(5)HMe(4))(mu-eta(1):eta(5)-C(5)Me(4))Ti](2) (4), With a bridging metalated

  5. Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekman, Annica

    2000-02-01

    Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO 2 (a)), sulfate in air (SO 4 (a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO 4 (aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ). Modeled concentrations of SO 2 (a), SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO 2 (a) concentration and underpredicts the SO 4 (a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO 4 (aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO 2 (a) and 2-2.5 days for SO 4 (a). For SO 2 (a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO 4 (a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO 2 (a) to SO 4 (a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations

  6. Operational aerosol and dust storm forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, D L; Curtis, C A; Liu, M; Walker, A L

    2009-01-01

    The U. S. Navy now conducts operational forecasting of aerosols and dust storms on global and regional scales. The Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) is run four times per day and produces 6-day forecasts of sulfate, smoke, dust and sea salt aerosol concentrations and visibility for the entire globe. The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS (registered) ) is run twice daily for Southwest Asia and produces 3-day forecasts of dust, smoke, and visibility. The graphical output from these models is available on the Internet (www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/). The aerosol optical properties are calculated for each specie for each forecast output time and used for sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval corrections, regional electro-optical (EO) propagation assessments, and the development of satellite algorithms. NAAPS daily aerosol optical depth (AOD) values are compared with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD values. Visibility forecasts are compared quantitatively with surface synoptic reports.

  7. Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segou, Margarita

    2016-01-01

    I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable performance on behalf of both statistical and physical models is suggested by large confidence intervals of information gain per earthquake and (5) generic ETAS models can adequately

  8. Evidence for the decay B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{omega} and measurement of the relative branching fractions of B{sub s}{sup 0} meson decays to J/{psi}{eta} and J/{psi}{eta}{sup Prime}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaij, R. [Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Abellan Beteta, C. [Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Adametz, A. [Physikalisches Institut, Ruprecht-Karls-Universitaet Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany); Adeva, B. [Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Adinolfi, M. [H.H. Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom); Adrover, C. [CPPM, Aix-Marseille Universite, CNRS/IN2P3, Marseille (France); Affolder, A. [Oliver Lodge Laboratory, University of Liverpool, Liverpool (United Kingdom); Ajaltouni, Z. [Clermont Universite, Universite Blaise Pascal, CNRS/IN2P3, LPC, Clermont-Ferrand (France); Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F. [European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Alexander, M. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Ali, S. [Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Alkhazov, G. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute (PNPI), Gatchina (Russian Federation); Alvarez Cartelle, P. [Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Alves, A.A. [Sezione INFN di Roma La Sapienza, Roma (Italy); Amato, S. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Amhis, Y. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne (Switzerland); Anderlini, L. [Sezione INFN di Firenze, Firenze (Italy); Anderson, J. [Physik-Institut, Universitaet Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Appleby, R.B. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); and others

    2013-02-21

    First evidence of the B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{omega} decay is found and the B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta} and B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta}{sup Prime} decays are studied using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb{sup -1} collected by the LHCb experiment in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of {radical}(s)=7 TeV. The branching fractions of these decays are measured relative to that of the B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{rho}{sup 0} decay: (B(B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{omega}))/(B(B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{rho}{sup 0})) =0.89{+-}0.19(stat){sub -0.13}{sup +0.07}(syst), (B(B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta}))/(B(B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{rho}{sup 0})) =14.0{+-}1.2(stat){sub -1.5}{sup +1.1}(syst){sub -1.0}{sup +1.1}((f{sub d})/(f{sub s}) ), (B(B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta}{sup Prime }))/(B(B{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{rho}{sup 0})) =12.7{+-}1.1(stat){sub -1.3}{sup +0.5}(syst){sub -0.9}{sup +1.0}((f{sub d})/(f{sub s}) ), where the last uncertainty is due to the knowledge of f{sub d}/f{sub s}, the ratio of b-quark hadronization factors that accounts for the different production rate of B{sup 0} and B{sub s}{sup 0} mesons. The ratio of the branching fractions of B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta}{sup Prime} and B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta} decays is measured to be (B(B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta}{sup Prime }))/(B(B{sub s}{sup 0}{yields}J/{psi}{eta})) =0.90{+-}0.09(stat){sub -0.02}{sup +0.06}(syst).

  9. Measurements of the branching fractions of exclusive charmless B meson decays with eta(') or omega mesons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubert, B; Boutigny, D; Gaillard, J M; Hicheur, A; Karyotakis, Y; Lees, J P; Robbe, P; Tisserand, V; Palano, A; Chen, G P; Chen, J C; Qi, N D; Rong, G; Wang, P; Zhu, Y S; Eigen, G; Reinertsen, P L; Stugu, B; Abbott, B; Abrams, G S; Borgland, A W; Breon, A B; Brown, D N; Button-Shafer, J; Cahn, R N; Clark, A R; Gill, M S; Gritsan, A; Groysman, Y; Jacobsen, R G; Kadel, R W; Kadyk, J; Kerth, L T; Kluth, S; Kolomensky, Y G; Kral, J F; LeClerc, C; Levi, M E; Liu, T; Lynch, G; Meyer, A B; Momayezi, M; Oddone, P J; Perazzo, A; Pripstein, M; Roe, N A; Romosan, A; Ronan, M T; Shelkov, V G; Telnov, A V; Wenzel, W A; Bright-Thomas, P G; Harrison, T J; Hawkes, C M; Knowles, D J; O'Neale, S W; Penny, R C; Watson, A T; Watson, N K; Deppermann, T; Goetzen, K; Koch, H; Krug, J; Kunze, M; Lewandowski, B; Peters, K; Schmuecker, H; Steinke, M; Andress, J C; Barlow, N R; Bhimji, W; Chevalier, N; Clark, P J; Cottingham, W N; De Groot, N; Dyce, N; Foster, B; McFall, J D; Wallom, D; Wilson, F F; Abe, K; Hearty, C; Mattison, T S; McKenna, J A; Thiessen, D; Jolly, S; McKemey, A K; Tinslay, J; Blinov, V E; Bukin, A D; Bukin, D A; Buzykaev, A R; Golubev, V B; Ivanchenko, V N; Korol, A A; Kravchenko, E A; Onuchin, A P; Salnikov, A A; Serednyakov, S I; Skovpen, Y I; Telnov, V I; Yushkov, A N; Best, D; Lankford, A J; Mandelkern, M; McMahon, S; Stoker, D P; Ahsan, A; Arisaka, K; Buchanan, C; Chun, S; Branson, J G; MacFarlane, D B; Prell, S; Rahatlou, S; Raven, G; Sharma, V; Campagnari, C; Dahmes, B; Hart, P A; Kuznetsova, N; Levy, S L; Long, O; Lu, A; Richman, J D; Verkerke, W; Witherell, M; Yellin, S; Beringer, J; Dorfan, D E; Eisner, A M; Frey, A; Grillo, A A; Grothe, M; Heusch, C A; Johnson, R P; Kroeger, W; Lockman, W S; Pulliam, T; Sadrozinski, H; Schalk, T; Schmitz, R E; Schumm, B A; Seiden, A; Turri, M; Walkowiak, W; Williams, D C; Wilson, M G; Chen, E; Dubois-Felsmann, G P; Dvoretskii, A; Hitlin, D G; Metzler, S; Oyang, J; Porter, F C; Ryd, A; Samuel, A; Weaver, M; Yang, S; Zhu, R Y; Devmal, S; Geld, T L; Jayatilleke, S; Mancinelli, G; Meadows, B T; Sokoloff, M D; Barillari, T; Bloom, P; Dima, M O; Fahey, S; Ford, W T; Hall, T L; Johnson, D R; Nauenberg, U; Olivas, A; Park, H; Rankin, P; Roy, J; Sen, S; Smith, J G; van Hoek, W C; Wagner, D L; Blouw, J; Harton, J L; Krishnamurthy, M; Soffer, A; Toki, W H; Wilson, R J; Zhang, J; Brandt, T; Brose, J; Colberg, T; Dahlinger, G; Dickopp, M; Dubitzky, R S; Maly, E; Müller-Pfefferkorn, R; Otto, S; Schubert, K R; Schwierz, R; Spaan, B; Wilden, L; Behr, L; Bernard, D; Bonneaud, G R; Brochard, F; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Ferrag, S; Roussot, E; T'Jampens, S; Thiebaux, C; Vasileiadis, G; Verderi, M; Anjomshoaa, A; Bernet, R; Khan, A; Muheim, F; Playfer, S; Swain, J E; Falbo, M; Borean, C; Bozzi, C; Dittongo, S; Folegani, M; Piemontese, L; Treadwell, E; Anulli, F; Baldini-Ferroli, R; Calcaterra, A; de Sangro, R; Falciai, D; Finocchiaro, G; Patteri, P; Peruzzi, I M; Piccolo, M; Xie, Y; Zallo, A; Bagnasco, S; Buzzo, A; Contri, R; Crosetti, G; Fabbricatore, P; Farinon, S; Lo Vetere, M; Macri, M; Monge, M R; Musenich, R; Pallavicini, M; Parodi, R; Passaggio, S; Pastore, F C; Patrignani, C; Pia, M G; Priano, C; Robutti, E; Santroni, A; Morii, M; Bartoldus, R; Dignan, T; Hamilton, R; Mallik, U; Cochran, J; Crawley, H B; Fischer, P A; Lamsa, J; Meyer, W T; Rosenberg, E I; Benkebil, M; Grosdidier, G; Hast, C; Höcker, A; Lacker, H M; LePeltier, V; Lutz, A M; Plaszczynski, S; Schune, M H; Trincaz-Duvoid, S; Valassi, A; Wormser, G; Bionta, R M; Brigljević, V; Lange, D J; Mugge, M; Shi, X; van Bibber, K; Wenaus, T J; Wright, D M; Wuest, C R; Carroll, M; Fry, J R; Gabathuler, E; Gamet, R; George, M; Kay, M; Payne, D J; Sloane, R J; Touramanis, C; Aspinwall, M L; Bowerman, D A; Dauncey, P D; Egede, U; Eschrich, I; Gunawardane, N J; Nash, J A; Sanders, P; Smith, D; Azzopardi, D E; Back, J J; Dixon, P; Harrison, P F; Potter, R J; Shorthouse, H W; Strother, P; Vidal, P B; Williams, M I; Cowan, G; George, S; Green, M G; Kurup, A; Marker, C E; McGrath, P; McMahon, T R; Ricciardi, S; Salvatore, F; Scott, I; Vaitsas, G; Brown, D; Davis, C L; Allison, J; Barlow, R J; Boyd, J T; Forti, A C; Fullwood, J; Jackson, F; Lafferty, G D; Savvas, N; Simopoulos, E T; Weatherall, J H; Farbin, A; Jawahery, A; Lillard, V; Olsen, J; Roberts, D A; Schieck, J R; Blaylock, G; Dallapiccola, C; Flood, K T; Hertzbach, S S; Kofler, R; Moore, T B; Staengle, H; Willocq, S; Brau, B; Cowan, R; Sciolla, G; Taylor, F; Yamamoto, R K; Milek, M; Patel, P M; Trischuk, J; Lanni, F; Palombo, F; Bauer, J M; Booke, M; Cremaldi, L; Eschenburg, V; Kroeger, R; Reidy, J; Sanders, D A; Summers, D J; Martin, J P; Nief, J Y; Seitz, R; Taras, P; Zacek, V; Nicholson, H; Sutton, C S; Cartaro, C; Cavallo, N; De Nardo, G; Fabozzi, F; Gatto, C; Lista, L; Paolucci, P; Piccolo, D; Sciacca, C; LoSecco, J M; Alsmiller, J R; Gabriel, T A; Handler, T; Brau, J; Frey, R; Iwasaki, M; Sinev, N B; Strom, D; Colecchia, F; Dal Corso, F; Dorigo, A; Galeazzi, F; Margoni, M; Michelon, G; Morandin, M; Posocco, M; Rotondo, M; Simonetto, F; Stroili, R; Torassa, E; Voci, C; Benayoun, M; Briand, H; Chauveau, J; David, P; De la Vaissière, C; Del Buono, L; Hamon, O; Le Diberder, F; Leruste, P; Lory, J; Roos, L; Stark, J; Versillé, S; Manfredi, P F; Re, V; Speziali, V; Frank, E D; Gladney, L; Guo, Q H; Panetta, J H; Angelini, C; Batignani, G; Bettarini, S; Bondioli, M; Carpinelli, M; Forti, F; Giorgi, M A; Lusiani, A; Martinez-Vidal, F; Morganti, M; Neri, N; Paoloni, E; Rama, M; Rizzo, G; Sandrelli, F; Simi, G; Triggiani, G; Walsh, J; Haire, M; Judd, D; Paick, K; Turnbull, L; Wagoner, D E; Albert, J; Bula, C; Elmer, P; Lu, C; McDonald, K T; Miftakov, V; Schaffner, S F; Smith, A J; Tumanov, A; Varnes, E W; Cavoto, G; del Re, D; Faccini, R; Ferrarotto, F; Ferroni, F; Fratini, K; Lamanna, E; Leonardi, E; Mazzoni, M A; Morganti, S; Piredda, G; Safai Tehrani, F; Serra, M; Voena, C; Christ, S; Waldi, R; Adye, T; Franek, B; Geddes, N I; Gopal, G P; Xella, S M; Aleksan, R; De Domenico, G; Emery, S; Gaidot, A; Ganzhur, S F; Giraud, P F; Hamel de Monchenault, G; Kozanecki, W; Langer, M; London, G W; Mayer, B; Serfass, B; Vasseur, G; Yeche, C; Zito, M; Copty, N; Purohit, M V; Singh, H; Yumiceva, F X; Adam, I; Anthony, P L; Aston, D; Baird, K; Bloom, E; Boyarski, A M; Bulos, F; Calderini, G; Claus, R; Convery, M R; Coupal, D P; Coward, D H; Dorfan, J; Doser, M; Dunwoodie, W; Field, R C; Glanzman, T; Godfrey, G L; Gowdy, S J; Grosso, P; Himel, T; Huffner, M E; Innes, W R; Jessop, C P; Kelsey, M H; Kim, P; Kocain, M L; Langenegger, U; Leith, D W; Luitz, S; Luth, V; Lynch, H L; Marsiske, H; Menke, S; Messner, R; Moffeit, K C; Mount, R; Muller, D R; O'Grady, C P; Perl, M; Petrak, S; Quinn, H; Ratcliff, B N; Robertson, S H; Rochester, L S; Roodman, A; Schietinger, T; Schindler, R H; Schwiening, J; Serbo, V V; Snyder, A; Soha, A; Spanier, S M; Stelzer, J; Su, D; Sullivan, M K; Tanaka, H A; Va'vra, J; Wagner, S R; Weinstein, A J; Wisniewski, W J; Wright, D H; Young, C C; Burchat, P R; Cheng, C H; Kirkby, D; Meyer, T I; Roat, C; Henderson, R; Bugg, W; Cohn, H; Weidemann, A W; Izen, J M; Kitayama, I; Lou, X C; Turcotte, M; Bianchi, F; Bona, M; Di Girolamo, B; Gamba, D; Smol, A; Zanin, D; Lanceri, L; Pompili, A; Vaugnin, G; Panvini, R S; Brown, C M; De Silva, A; Kowalewski, R; Roney, J M; Band, H R; Charles, E; Dasu, S; Di Lodovico, F; Eichenbaum, A M; Hu, H; Johnson, J R; Liu, R; Nielsen, J; Pan, Y; Prepost, R; Scott, I J; Sekula, S J; von Wimmersperg-Toeller, J H; Wu, S L; Yu, Z; Zobernig, H; Kordich, T M; Neal, H

    2001-11-26

    We present the results of searches for B decays to charmless two-body final states containing eta(') or omega mesons, based on 20.7 fb(-1) of data collected with the BABAR detector. We find the branching fractions Beta(B(+)-->eta(')K(+)) = (70+/-8+/-5) x 10(-6), Beta(B(0)-->eta(')K(0)) = (42(+13)(-11) +/- 4) x 10(-6), and Beta(B(+)-->omega pi(+)) = (6.6(+2.1)(-1.8) +/- 0.7) x 10(-6), where the first error quoted is statistical and the second is systematic. We give measurements of four additional modes for which the 90% confidence level upper limits are Beta(B(+)-->eta(')pi(+)) omega K(+)) omega K(0)) omega pi(0)) < 3 x 10(-6).

  10. Improved measurements of branching fractions for eta(c) -> phi phi and omega phi

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, Z.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Löhner, H.; Messchendorp, J.; Tiemens, M.

    2017-01-01

    Using (223.7 +/- 1.4) x 10(6) J / Psi events accumulated with the BESIII detector, we study eta(c) decays to phi phi and omega phi final states. The branching fraction of n(c) -> phi phi is measured to be Br(eta(c) -> phi phi) = (2.5 +/- 0(-0.7)(+0.3) +/- 0.6) X 10(-3,) where the first uncertainty

  11. Study of Inclusive and Semi-Inclusive Production of eta{prime} in B Decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hicheur, Adlene

    2001-09-24

    We report a measurement of the rate for B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s} transitions where the {eta}{prime} meson has center-of-mass momentum in the range 2.0 to 2.7 GeV/c and X{sub s} represents a system comprising a kaon and up to four pions. Our study is based on 22.2 million B{bar B} pairs collected at the {Upsilon}(4S) with the BABAR detector at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. We find {Beta}(B {yields} {eta}{prime}X{sub s}) = (6.8{sub -1.0}{sup +0.7}(stat) {+-} 1.0(syst){sub -0.5}{sup +0.0}(bkg)) x 10{sup -4} assuming that the signal is due to b {yields} sg* transitions.

  12. Mass loss from Eta Carinae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andriesse, C.D.; Viotti, R.

    1979-01-01

    This high luminosity (5x10 6 solar luminosity) star since 1840 is losing mass at the rate of 7.5x10 -2 solar masses per year. The large mass loss could be the result of vibrational instabilities produced in the CNO hydrogen burning phase of a very massive (160 solar masses) star. The presence of high excitation lines in the ultraviolet spectrum of Eta Car suggests the idea of a hot zone excited by dissipation of the supersonic turbulent flow. (Auth.)

  13. Modeling actual evapotranspiration with routine meteorological variables in the data-scarce region of the Tibetan Plateau: Comparisons and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Zhang, Yinsheng; Xu, Chong-Yu; Szilagyi, Jozsef

    2015-08-01

    Quantitative estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) by in situ measurements and mathematical modeling is a fundamental task for physical understanding of ETa as well as the feedback mechanisms between land and the ambient atmosphere. However, the ETa information in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been greatly impeded by the extremely sparse ground observation network in the region. Approaches for estimating ETa solely from routine meteorological variables are therefore important for investigating spatiotemporal variations of ETa in the data-scarce region of the TP. Motivated by this need, the complementary relationship (CR) and Penman-Monteith approaches were evaluated against in situ measurements of ETa on a daily basis in an alpine steppe region of the TP. The former includes the Nonlinear Complementary Relationship (Nonlinear-CR) as well as the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) models, while the latter involves the Katerji-Perrier and the Todorovic models. Results indicate that the Nonlinear-CR, CRAE, and Katerji-Perrier models are all capable of efficiently simulating daily ETa, provided their parameter values were appropriately calibrated. The Katerji-Perrier model performed best since its site-specific parameters take the soil water status into account. The Nonlinear-CR model also performed well with the advantage of not requiring the user to choose between a symmetric and asymmetric CR. The CRAE model, even with a relatively low Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value, is also an acceptable approach in this data-scarce region as it does not need information of wind speed and ground surface conditions. In contrast, application of the Todorovic model was found to be inappropriate in the dry regions of the TP due to its significant overestimation of ETa as it neglects the effect of water stress on the bulk surface resistance. Sensitivity analysis of the parameter values demonstrated the relative importance of each parameter in the

  14. Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part I: Mean climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, J. P. R.; Franchito, S. H.; Rao, V. B.

    2006-09-01

    This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model - EtaClim) in simulating the mean climatological features of the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America. Comparing the results with the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data it is seen that the RegCM3 simulates a weaker and southward shifted Bolivian high (BH). But, the Nordeste low (NL) is located close to its climatological position. In the EtaClim the position of the BH is reproduced well, but the NL is shifted towards the interior of the continent. To the east of Andes, the RegCM3 simulates a weaker low level jet and a weaker basic flow from the tropical Atlantic to Amazonia while they are stronger in the EtaClim. In general, the RegCM3 and EtaClim show, respectively a negative and positive bias in the surface temperature in almost all regions of South America. For both models, the correlation coefficients between the simulated precipitation and the GPCP data are high over most of South America. Although the RegCM3 and EtaClim overestimate the precipitation in the Andes region they show a negative bias in general over the entire South America. The simulations of upper and lower level circulations and precipitation fields in EtaClim were better than that of the RegCM3. In central Amazonia both models were unable to simulate the precipitation correctly. The results showed that although the RegCM3 and EtaClim are capable of simulating the main climatological features of the summer climate over South America, there are areas which need improvement. This indicates that the models must be more adequately tuned in order to give reliable predictions in the different regions of South America.

  15. Forecasting Forest Type and Age Classes in the Appalachian-Cumberland Subregion of the Central Hardwood Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes how forest type and age distributions might be expected to change in the Appalachian-Cumberland portions of the Central Hardwood Region over the next 50 years. Forecasting forest conditions requires accounting for a number of biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics within an internally consistent modeling framework. We used the US Forest...

  16. Measurements of Branching Fractions and Time-Dependent CP-Violating Asymmetries in B to eta' K Decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2005-02-07

    The authors present measurements of the B {yields} {eta}{prime}K branching fractions; for B{sup +} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sup +} they measure also the time-integrated charge asymmetry {Alpha}{sub ch}, and for B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sub s}{sup 0} the time dependent CP-violation parameters S and C. The data sample corresponds to 232 million B{bar B} pairs produced by e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation at the {Upsilon}(4S). The results are {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sup +}) = (68.9 {+-} 2.0 {+-} 3.2) x 10{sup -6}, {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sup 0}) = (67.4 {+-} 3.3 {+-} 3.2) x 10{sup -6}, {Alpha}{sub ch} = 0.033 {+-} 0.028 {+-} 0.005, S = 0.30 {+-} 0.14 {+-} 0.02, and C = -0.21 {+-} 0.10 {+-} 0.02, where the first error quoted is statistical and the second systematic.

  17. Measurement of the /eta/ parameter in /mu//sup +/ decay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bossingham, R.R.

    1989-04-01

    This paper discusses the following topics on the muon plus decay; muon decay spectrum; previous determinations of /eta/; experimental apparatus; distortions of the spectrum; and data analysis and results. 31 figs. (LSP)

  18. QSTR with extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices. 14. QSAR modeling of toxicity of aromatic aldehydes to Tetrahymena pyriformis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, Kunal, E-mail: kunalroy_in@yahoo.com [Drug Theoretics and Cheminformatics Laboratory, Division of Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Department of Pharmaceutical Technology, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700 032 (India); Das, Rudra Narayan [Drug Theoretics and Cheminformatics Laboratory, Division of Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Department of Pharmaceutical Technology, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700 032 (India)

    2010-11-15

    Aldehydes are a toxic class of chemicals causing severe health hazards. In this background, quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (QSTR) models have been developed in the present study using Extended Topochemical Atom (ETA) indices for a large group of 77 aromatic aldehydes for their acute toxicity against the protozoan ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis. The ETA models have been compared with those developed using various non-ETA topological indices. Attempt was also made to include the n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log K{sub o/w}) as an additional descriptor considering the importance of hydrophobicity in toxicity prediction. Thirty different models were developed using different chemometric tools. All the models have been validated using internal validation and external validation techniques. The statistical quality of the ETA models was found to be comparable to that of the non-ETA models. The ETA models have shown the important effects of steric bulk, lipophilicity, presence of electronegative atom containing substituents and functionality of the aldehydic oxygen to the toxicity of the aldehydes. The best ETA model (without using log K{sub o/w}) shows encouraging statistical quality (Q{sub int}{sup 2}=0.709,Q{sub ext}{sup 2}=0.744). It is interesting to note that some of the topological models reported here are better in statistical quality than previously reported models using quantum chemical descriptors.

  19. Search for $\\gamma\\gamma \\rightarrow \\eta_b$ in $e^{+}e^{-}$ collisions at LEP2

    CERN Document Server

    Heister, A.; Barate, R.; Bruneliere, R.; De Bonis, I.; Decamp, D.; Goy, C.; Jezequel, S.; Lees, J.P.; Martin, F.; Merle, E.; Minard, M.N.; Pietrzyk, B.; Trocme, B.; Boix, G.; Bravo, S.; Casado, M.P.; Chmeissani, M.; Crespo, J.M.; Fernandez, E.; Fernandez-Bosman, M.; Garrido, Ll.; Grauges, E.; Lopez, J.; Martinez, M.; Merino, G.; Miquel, R.; Mir, Ll.M.; Pacheco, A.; Paneque, D.; Ruiz, H.; Colaleo, A.; Creanza, D.; De Filippis, N.; de Palma, M.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Maggi, M.; Nuzzo, S.; Ranieri, A.; Raso, G.; Ruggieri, F.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Tempesta, P.; Tricomi, A.; Zito, G.; Huang, X.; Lin, J.; Ouyang, Q.; Wang, T.; Xie, Y.; Xu, R.; Xue, S.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, W.; Abbaneo, D.; Azzurri, P.; Barklow, T.; Buchmuller, O.; Cattaneo, M.; Cerutti, F.; Clerbaux, B.; Drevermann, H.; Forty, R.W.; Frank, M.; Gianotti, F.; Greening, T.C.; Hansen, J.B.; Harvey, J.; Hutchcroft, D.E.; Janot, P.; Jost, B.; Kado, M.; Mato, P.; Moutoussi, A.; Ranjard, F.; Rolandi, Gigi; Schlatter, D.; Sguazzoni, G.; Tejessy, W.; Teubert, F.; Valassi, A.; Videau, I.; Ward, J.J.; Badaud, F.; Dessagne, S.; Falvard, A.; Fayolle, D.; Gay, P.; Jousset, J.; Michel, B.; Monteil, S.; Pallin, D.; Pascolo, J.M.; Perret, P.; Hansen, J.D.; Hansen, J.R.; Hansen, P.H.; Nilsson, B.S.; Kyriakis, A.; Markou, C.; Simopoulou, E.; Vayaki, A.; Zachariadou, K.; Blondel, A.; Brient, J.C.; Machefert, F.; Rouge, A.; Swynghedauw, M.; Tanaka, R.; Videau, H.; Ciulli, V.; Focardi, E.; Parrini, G.; Antonelli, A.; Antonelli, M.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossi, F.; Campana, P.; Capon, G.; Chiarella, V.; Laurelli, P.; Mannocchi, G.; Murtas, F.; Murtas, G.P.; Passalacqua, L.; Halley, A.; Kennedy, J.; Lynch, J.G.; Negus, P.; O'Shea, V.; Thompson, A.S.; Wasserbaech, S.; Cavanaugh, R.; Dhamotharan, S.; Geweniger, C.; Hanke, P.; Hepp, V.; Kluge, E.E.; Leibenguth, G.; Putzer, A.; Stenzel, H.; Tittel, K.; Werner, S.; Wunsch, M.; Beuselinck, R.; Binnie, D.M.; Cameron, W.; Davies, G.; Dornan, P.J.; Girone, M.; Hill, R.D.; Marinelli, N.; Nowell, J.; Przysiezniak, H.; Rutherford, S.A.; Sedgbeer, J.K.; Thompson, J.C.; White, R.; Ghete, V.M.; Girtler, P.; Kneringer, E.; Kuhn, D.; Rudolph, G.; Bouhova-Thacker, E.; Bowdery, C.K.; Clarke, D.P.; Ellis, G.; Finch, A.J.; Foster, F.; Hughes, G.; Jones, R.W.L.; Pearson, M.R.; Robertson, N.A.; Smizanska, M.; van der Aa, O.; Delaere, C.; Lemaitre, V.; Blumenschein, U.; Holldorfer, F.; Jakobs, K.; Kayser, F.; Kleinknecht, K.; Muller, A.S.; Quast, G.; Renk, B.; Sander, H.G.; Schmeling, S.; Wachsmuth, H.; Zeitnitz, C.; Ziegler, T.; Bonissent, A.; Coyle, P.; Curtil, C.; Ealet, A.; Fouchez, D.; Payre, P.; Tilquin, A.; Ragusa, F.; David, A.; Dietl, H.; Ganis, G.; Huttmann, K.; Lutjens, G.; Manner, W.; Moser, H.G.; Settles, R.; Wolf, G.; Boucrot, J.; Callot, O.; Davier, M.; Duflot, L.; Grivaz, J.F.; Heusse, P.; Jacholkowska, A.; Loomis, C.; Serin, L.; Veillet, J.J.; de Vivie de Regie, J.B.; Yuan, C.; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Boccali, T.; Foa, L.; Giammanco, A.; Giassi, A.; Ligabue, F.; Messineo, A.; Palla, F.; Sanguinetti, G.; Sciaba, A.; Tenchini, R.; Venturi, A.; Verdini, P.G.; Awunor, O.; Blair, G.A.; Coles, J.; Cowan, G.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Green, M.G.; Jones, L.T.; Medcalf, T.; Misiejuk, A.; Strong, J.A.; Teixeira-Dias, P.; Clifft, R.W.; Edgecock, T.R.; Norton, P.R.; Tomalin, I.R.; Bloch-Devaux, Brigitte; Boumediene, D.; Colas, P.; Fabbro, B.; Lancon, E.; Lemaire, M.C.; Locci, E.; Perez, P.; Rander, J.; Renardy, J.F.; Rosowsky, A.; Seager, P.; Trabelsi, A.; Tuchming, B.; Vallage, B.; Konstantinidis, N.; Litke, A.M.; Taylor, G.; Booth, C.N.; Cartwright, S.; Combley, F.; Hodgson, P.N.; Lehto, M.; Thompson, L.F.; Affholderbach, K.; Boehrer, Armin; Brandt, S.; Grupen, C.; Hess, J.; Ngac, A.; Prange, G.; Sieler, U.; Borean, C.; Giannini, G.; He, H.; Putz, J.; Rothberg, J.; Armstrong, S.R.; Berkelman, Karl; Cranmer, K.; Ferguson, D.P.S.; Gao, Y.; Gonzalez, S.; Hayes, O.J.; Hu, H.; Jin, S.; Kile, J.; McNamara, P.A., III; Nielsen, J.; Pan, Y.B.; von Wimmersperg-Toeller, J.H.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wu, J.; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, X.; Zobernig, G.

    2002-01-01

    A search for the pseudoscalar meson eta_b is performed in two-photon interactions at LEP~2 with an integrated luminosity of 699 pb^-1 collected at e+e- centre-of-mass energies from 181 GeV to 209 GeV. One candidate event is found in the six-charged-particle final state and none in the four-charged-particle final state, in agreement with the total expected background of about one event. Upper limits of Gamma_gammagamma(eta_b) * BR(eta_b -> 4 charged particles) 6 charged particles) < 132 eV are obtained at 95\\% confidence level, which correspond to 95\\% confidence level upper limits of $9.0\\%$ and $25\\%$ on these branching ratios.

  20. THE ETA-MESON PHOTOPRODUCTION ON PROTON

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Donoval, Jan; Bydžovský, Petr

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 26, 3-4 (2011), s. 645-646 ISSN 0217-751X. [11th International Workshop on Meson Production , Properties and Interaction. Krakow, 10.06.2010-15.06.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA202/08/0984 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : Eta-meson photoproduction * form factors * nucleon resonances Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 1.053, year: 2011

  1. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  2. Synthesis and reactivity of bis(tetramethylcyclopentadienyl) yttrium metallocenes including the reduction of Me(3)SiN(3) to [(Me(3)Si)(2)N](-) with [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(THF)](2)(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-N(2)).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Sara E; Schmiege, Benjamin M; Lee, David S; Ziller, Joseph W; Evans, William J

    2010-07-19

    The metallocene precursors needed to provide the tetramethylcyclopentadienyl yttrium complexes (C(5)Me(4)H)(3)Y, [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(THF)](2)(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-N(2)), and [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(mu-H)](2) for reactivity studies have been synthesized and fully characterized, and their reaction chemistry has led to an unexpected conversion of an azide to an amide. (C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(mu-Cl)(2)K(THF)(x), 1, synthesized from YCl(3) and KC(5)Me(4)H reacts with allylmagnesium chloride to make (C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(eta(3)-C(3)H(5)), 2, which is converted to [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y][(mu-Ph)(2)BPh(2)], 3, with [Et(3)NH][BPh(4)]. Complex 3 reacts with KC(5)Me(4)H to form (C(5)Me(4)H)(3)Y, 4. The reduced dinitrogen complex, [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(THF)](2)(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-N(2)), 5, can be synthesized from either [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y](2)[(mu-Ph)(2)BPh(2)], 3, or (C(5)Me(4)H)(3)Y, 4, with potassium graphite under a dinitrogen atmosphere. The (15)N labeled analogue, [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(THF)](2)(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-(15)N(2)), 5-(15)N, has also been prepared, and the (15)N NMR data have been compared to previously characterized reduced dinitrogen complexes. Complex 2 reacts with H(2) to form the corresponding hydride, [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y(mu-H)](2), 6. Complex 5 displays similar reactivity to that of the analogous [(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Ln(THF)](2)(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-N(2)) complexes (Ln = La, Lu), with substrates such as phenazine, anthracene, and CO(2). In addition, 5 reduces Me(3)SiN(3) to form (C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Y[N(SiMe(3))(2)], 7.

  3. Multitask Learning-Based Security Event Forecast Methods for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui He

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks have strong dynamics and uncertainty, including network topological changes, node disappearance or addition, and facing various threats. First, to strengthen the detection adaptability of wireless sensor networks to various security attacks, a region similarity multitask-based security event forecast method for wireless sensor networks is proposed. This method performs topology partitioning on a large-scale sensor network and calculates the similarity degree among regional subnetworks. The trend of unknown network security events can be predicted through multitask learning of the occurrence and transmission characteristics of known network security events. Second, in case of lacking regional data, the quantitative trend of unknown regional network security events can be calculated. This study introduces a sensor network security event forecast method named Prediction Network Security Incomplete Unmarked Data (PNSIUD method to forecast missing attack data in the target region according to the known partial data in similar regions. Experimental results indicate that for an unknown security event forecast the forecast accuracy and effects of the similarity forecast algorithm are better than those of single-task learning method. At the same time, the forecast accuracy of the PNSIUD method is better than that of the traditional support vector machine method.

  4. The X-ray Variability of Eta Car, 1996-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Michael F.; Hamaguchi, K.; Gull, T.; Owocki, S.; Pittard, J.

    2010-01-01

    X-ray photometry in the 2-10 keY band of the the supermassive binary star Eta Car has been measured with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer from 1996-2010. The ingress to X-ray minimum is consistent with a period of 2024 days. The 2009 X-ray minimum began on January 162009 and showed an unexpectedly abrupt recovery starting after 12 Feb 2009. The X-ray colors become harder about half-way through all three minima and continue until flux recovery. The behavior of the fluxes and X-ray colors for the most recent X-ray minimum, along with Chandra high resolution grating spectra at key phases suggests a significant change in the inner wind of Eta Car, a possible indicator that the star is entering a new unstable phase of mass loss.

  5. Forecast Mekong 2012: Building scientific capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, James E.

    2012-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong supports the Lower Mekong Initiative through a variety of activities. The principal objectives of Forecast Mekong include the following: * Build scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin and promote cooperation and collaboration among scientists working in the region. * Provide data, information, and scientific models to help resource managers there make informed decisions. * Produce forecasting and visualization tools to support basin planning, including climate change adaptation. The focus of this product is Forecast Mekong accomplishments and current activities related to the development of scientific capacity at organizations and institutions in the region. Building on accomplishments in 2010 and 2011, Forecast Mekong continues to enhance scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin with a suite of activities in 2012.

  6. Feasibility study of the {eta}'{yields} {pi}{sup +} {pi}{sup -} {pi}{sup 0} decay using WASA-at-COSY apparatus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zielinski, M.

    2008-07-15

    One of the objectives of the vast physics programme of the recently commissioned WASA-at-COSY facility is the study of fundamental symmetries via the measurements of the {eta} and {eta}' mesons decays. Especially interesting are isospin violating hadronic precesses of these mesons into 3{pi} systems driven by the term of QCD Lagrangian which depends on the mass difference of the u and d quarks. When an {eta} or an {eta}' meson is created in the hadronic reaction signals from such decays may be significantly obscured by the prompt production of {pi} mesons. In this thesis we present the estimation of the upper limit of the background due to prompt pion production for the {eta}'{yields}3{pi}{sup 0} and {eta}'{yields}{pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} decays. Using the data from proton-proton collisions measured by the COSY-11 group we have extracted differential cross sections for the multimeson production with the invariant mass corresponding to the mass of the {eta}' meson. Based on these results and on parametrizations of the total cross sections for the {eta}' meson as well as parametrization of the upper limit for the prompt pi{sup +}pi{sup -}pi{sup 0} production in the collisions of protons we discuss in details the feasibility of a measurement of the {eta}' meson decay into 3{pi} channels with the WASA-at-COSY facility. Based on the chiral unitary approach the value of the branching ratio BR({eta}'{yields}{pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}) was recently predicted to be about 1%. We show that the WASA-at-COSY has a potential to verify this result empirically. (orig.)

  7. An Aboriginal Australian Record of the Great Eruption of Eta Carinae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamacher, Duane W.; Frew, David J.

    2010-11-01

    We present evidence that the Boorong Aboriginal people of northwestern Victoria observed the Great Eruption of Eta Carinae in the nineteenth century and incorporated this event into their oral traditions. We identify this star, as well as others not specifically identified by name, using descriptive material presented in the 1858 paper by William Edward Stanbridge in conjunction with early southern star catalogues. This identification of a transient astronomical event supports the assertion that Aboriginal oral traditions are dynamic and evolving, and not static. This is the only definitive indigenous record of Eta Carinae's outburst identified in the literature to date.

  8. Measurement of Inclusive $\\omega$ and $\\eta$' Production in Hadronic Z Decays

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M; Aguilar-Benítez, M; Ahlen, S P; Alpat, B; Alcaraz, J; Alemanni, G; Allaby, James V; Aloisio, A; Alverson, G; Alviggi, M G; Ambrosi, G; Anderhub, H; Andreev, V P; Angelescu, T; Anselmo, F; Antreasyan, D; Arefev, A; Azemoon, T; Aziz, T; Bagnaia, P; Baksay, L; Ball, R C; Banerjee, S; Banicz, K; Barillère, R; Barone, L; Bartalini, P; Baschirotto, A; Basile, M; Battiston, R; Bay, A; Becattini, F; Becker, U; Behner, F; Berdugo, J; Berges, P; Bertucci, B; Betev, B L; Bhattacharya, S; Biasini, M; Biland, A; Bilei, G M; Blaising, J J; Blyth, S C; Bobbink, Gerjan J; Böck, R K; Böhm, A; Borgia, B; Boucham, A; Bourilkov, D; Bourquin, Maurice; Boutigny, D; Branson, J G; Brigljevic, V; Brock, I C; Buffini, A; Buijs, A; Burger, J D; Burger, W J; Busenitz, J K; Buytenhuijs, A O; Cai, X D; Campanelli, M; Capell, M; Cara Romeo, G; Caria, M; Carlino, G; Cartacci, A M; Casaus, J; Castellini, G; Cavallari, F; Cavallo, N; Cecchi, C; Cerrada-Canales, M; Cesaroni, F; Chamizo-Llatas, M; Chan, A; Chang, Y H; Chaturvedi, U K; Chemarin, M; Chen, A; Chen, G; Chen, G M; Chen, H F; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Chiefari, G; Chien, C Y; Choi, M T; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, F; Civinini, C; Clare, I; Clare, R; Cohn, H O; Coignet, G; Colijn, A P; Colino, N; Commichau, V; Costantini, S; Cotorobai, F; de la Cruz, B; Csilling, Akos; Dai, T S; D'Alessandro, R; De Asmundis, R; De Boeck, H; Degré, A; Deiters, K; Denes, P; De Notaristefani, F; DiBitonto, Daryl; Diemoz, M; Van Dierendonck, D N; Di Lodovico, F; Dionisi, C; Dittmar, Michael; Dominguez, A; Doria, A; Dorne, I; Dova, M T; Drago, E; Duchesneau, D; Duinker, P; Durán, I; Dutta, S; Easo, S; Efremenko, Yu V; El-Mamouni, H; Engler, A; Eppling, F J; Erné, F C; Ernenwein, J P; Extermann, Pierre; Fabre, M; Faccini, R; Falciano, S; Favara, A; Fay, J; Fedin, O; Felcini, Marta; Fenyi, B; Ferguson, T; Fernández, D; Ferroni, F; Fesefeldt, H S; Fiandrini, E; Field, J H; Filthaut, Frank; Fisher, P H; Forconi, G; Fredj, L; Freudenreich, Klaus; Furetta, C; Galaktionov, Yu; Ganguli, S N; García-Abia, P; Gau, S S; Gentile, S; Gerald, J; Gheordanescu, N; Giagu, S; Goldfarb, S; Goldstein, J; Gong, Z F; Gougas, Andreas; Gratta, Giorgio; Grünewald, M W; Gupta, V K; Gurtu, A; Gutay, L J; Hartmann, B; Hasan, A; Hatzifotiadou, D; Hebbeker, T; Hervé, A; Van Hoek, W C; Hofer, H; Hoorani, H; Hou, S R; Hu, G; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janssen, H; Jenkes, K; Jin, B N; Jones, L W; de Jong, P; Josa-Mutuberria, I; Kasser, A; Khan, R A; Kamrad, D; Kamyshkov, Yu A; Kapustinsky, J S; Karyotakis, Yu; Kaur, M; Kienzle-Focacci, M N; Kim, D; Kim, J K; Kim, S C; Kim, Y G; Kinnison, W W; Kirkby, A; Kirkby, D; Kirkby, Jasper; Kiss, D; Kittel, E W; Klimentov, A; König, A C; Korolko, I; Koutsenko, V F; Krämer, R W; Krenz, W; Kuijten, H; Kunin, A; Ladrón de Guevara, P; Landi, G; Lapoint, C; Lassila-Perini, K M; Laurikainen, P; Lebeau, M; Lebedev, A; Lebrun, P; Lecomte, P; Lecoq, P; Le Coultre, P; Lee Jae Sik; Lee, K Y; Leggett, C; Le Goff, J M; Leiste, R; Leonardi, E; Levchenko, P M; Li Chuan; Lieb, E H; Lin, W T; Linde, Frank L; Lista, L; Liu, Z A; Lohmann, W; Longo, E; Lu, W; Lü, Y S; Lübelsmeyer, K; Luci, C; Luckey, D; Luminari, L; Lustermann, W; Ma Wen Gan; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Malgeri, L; Malinin, A; Maña, C; Mangla, S; Marchesini, P A; Marin, A; Martin, J P; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McNally, D; Mele, S; Merola, L; Meschini, M; Metzger, W J; Von der Mey, M; Mi, Y; Mihul, A; Van Mil, A J W; Mirabelli, G; Mnich, J; Molnár, P; Monteleoni, B; Moore, R; Morganti, S; Moulik, T; Mount, R; Müller, S; Muheim, F; Nagy, E; Nahn, S; Napolitano, M; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Newman, H; Nippe, A; Nisati, A; Nowak, H; Opitz, H; Organtini, G; Ostonen, R; Pandoulas, D; Paoletti, S; Paolucci, P; Park, H K; Pascale, G; Passaleva, G; Patricelli, S; Paul, T; Pauluzzi, M; Paus, C; Pauss, Felicitas; Peach, D; Pei, Y J; Pensotti, S; Perret-Gallix, D; Petrak, S; Pevsner, A; Piccolo, D; Pieri, M; Pinto, J C; Piroué, P A; Pistolesi, E; Plyaskin, V; Pohl, M; Pozhidaev, V; Postema, H; Produit, N; Prokofev, D; Prokofiev, D O; Rahal-Callot, G; Rancoita, P G; Rattaggi, M; Raven, G; Razis, P A; Read, K; Ren, D; Rescigno, M; Reucroft, S; Van Rhee, T; Riemann, S; Riemers, B C; Riles, K; Rind, O; Ro, S; Robohm, A; Rodin, J; Rodríguez-Calonge, F J; Roe, B P; Romero, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rosselet, P; Van Rossum, W; Roth, S; Rubio, Juan Antonio; Rykaczewski, H; Salicio, J; Sánchez, E; Santocchia, A; Sarakinos, M E; Sarkar, S; Sassowsky, M; Sauvage, G; Schäfer, C; Shchegelskii, V; Schmidt-Kärst, S; Schmitz, D; Schmitz, P; Schneegans, M; Scholz, N; Schopper, Herwig Franz; Schotanus, D J; Schwenke, J; Schwering, G; Sciacca, C; Sciarrino, D; Sens, Johannes C; Servoli, L; Shevchenko, S; Shivarov, N; Shoutko, V; Shukla, J; Shumilov, E; Shvorob, A V; Siedenburg, T; Son, D; Sopczak, André; Soulimov, V; Smith, B; Spillantini, P; Steuer, M; Stickland, D P; Stone, H; Stoyanov, B; Strässner, A; Strauch, K; Sudhakar, K; Sultanov, G G; Sun, L Z; Susinno, G F; Suter, H; Swain, J D; Tang, X W; Tauscher, Ludwig; Taylor, L; Ting, Samuel C C; Ting, S M; Tonutti, M; Tonwar, S C; Tóth, J; Tully, C; Tuchscherer, H; Tung, K L; Uchida, Y; Ulbricht, J; Uwer, U; Valente, E; Van de Walle, R T; Vesztergombi, G; Vetlitskii, I; Viertel, Gert M; Vivargent, M; Völkert, R; Vogel, H; Vogt, H; Vorobev, I; Vorobyov, A A; Vorvolakos, A; Wadhwa, M; Wallraff, W; Wang, J C; Wang, X L; Wang, Z M; Weber, A; Wittgenstein, F; Wu, S X; Wynhoff, S; Xu, J; Xu, Z Z; Yang, B Z; Yang, C G; Yao, X Y; Ye, J B; Yeh, S C; You, J M; Zalite, A; Zalite, Yu; Zemp, P; Zeng, Y; Zhang, Z; Zhang, Z P; Zhou, B; Zhou, Y; Zhu, G Y; Zhu, R Y; Zichichi, Antonino; Ziegler, F

    1997-01-01

    We present a study of the inclusive $\\omega$ and $\\eta^{\\prime}$ production based on 3.1 million hadronic Z decays recorded with the L3 detector at LEP during 1991--1994. The production rates per hadronic Z decay have been measured to be $1.17 \\pm 0.17 $ $\\omega$ mesons and $0.25 \\pm 0.04 $ $\\eta^{\\prime}$ mesons. The production rates and the differential cross sections have been compared with predictions of the JETSET and the HERWIG Monte Carlo models. We have observed that the differential cross sections can be described by an analytical quantum chromodynamics calculation. \\end{document}

  9. Added value of dynamical downscaling of winter seasonal forecasts over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Sushama, Laxmi

    2017-04-01

    Skillful seasonal forecasts have enormous potential benefits for socio-economic sectors that are sensitive to weather and climate conditions, as the early warning routines could reduce the vulnerability of such sectors. In this study, individual ensemble members of the ECMWF global ensemble seasonal forecasts are dynamically downscaled to produce ensemble of regional seasonal forecasts over North America using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). CRCM5 forecasts are initialized on November 1st of each year and are integrated for four months for the 1991-2001 period at 0.22 degree resolution to produce a one-month lead-time forecast. The initial conditions for atmospheric variables are obtained from ERA-Interim reanalysis, whereas the initial conditions for land surface are obtained from a separate ERA-interim driven CRCM5 simulation with spectral nudging applied to the interior domain. The global and regional ensemble forecasts were then verified to investigate the skill and economic benefits of dynamical downscaling. Results indicate that both the global and regional climate models produce skillful precipitation forecast over the southern Great Plains and eastern coasts of the U.S and skillful temperature forecasts over the northern U.S. and most of Canada. In comparison to ECMWF forecasts, CRCM5 forecasts improved the temperature forecast skill over most part of the domain, but the improvements for precipitation is limited to regions with complex topography, where it improves the frequency of intense daily precipitation. CRCM5 forecast also yields a better economic value compared to ECMWF precipitation forecasts, for users whose cost to loss ratio is smaller than 0.5.

  10. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G

    2009-01-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10 8 t yr- 1 . A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  11. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

    2009-03-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  12. 3D Radiative Transfer in Eta Carinae: Application of the SimpleX Algorithm to 3D SPH Simulations of Binary Colliding Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementel, N.; Madura, T. I.; Kruip, C. J. H.; Icke, V.; Gull, T. R.

    2014-01-01

    Eta Carinae is an ideal astrophysical laboratory for studying massive binary interactions and evolution, and stellar wind-wind collisions. Recent three-dimensional (3D) simulations set the stage for understanding the highly complex 3D flows in Eta Car. Observations of different broad high- and low-ionization forbidden emission lines provide an excellent tool to constrain the orientation of the system, the primary's mass-loss rate, and the ionizing flux of the hot secondary. In this work we present the first steps towards generating synthetic observations to compare with available and future HST/STIS data. We present initial results from full 3D radiative transfer simulations of the interacting winds in Eta Car. We use the SimpleX algorithm to post-process the output from 3D SPH simulations and obtain the ionization fractions of hydrogen and helium assuming three different mass-loss rates for the primary star. The resultant ionization maps of both species constrain the regions where the observed forbidden emission lines can form. Including collisional ionization is necessary to achieve a better description of the ionization states, especially in the areas shielded from the secondary's radiation. We find that reducing the primary's mass-loss rate increases the volume of ionized gas, creating larger areas where the forbidden emission lines can form. We conclude that post processing 3D SPH data with SimpleX is a viable tool to create ionization maps for Eta Car.

  13. A new measurement of the rare decay eta -> pi^0 gamma gamma with the Crystal Ball/TAPS detectors at the Mainz Microtron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nefkens, B M; Prakhov, S; Aguar-Bartolom��, P; Annand, J R; Arends, H J; Bantawa, K; Beck, R; Bekrenev, V; Bergh��user, H; Braghieri, A; Briscoe, W J; Brudvik, J; Cherepnya, S; Codling, R F; Collicott, C; Costanza, S; Danilkin, I V; Denig, A; Demissie, B; Dieterle, M; Downie, E J; Drexler, P; Fil' kov, L V; Fix, A; Garni, S; Glazier, D I; Gregor, R; Hamilton, D; Heid, E; Hornidge, D; Howdle, D; Jahn, O; Jude, T C; Kashevarov, V L; K��ser, A; Keshelashvili, I; Kondratiev, R; Korolija, M; Kotulla, M; Koulbardis, A; Kruglov, S; Krusche, B; Lisin, V; Livingston, K; MacGregor, I J; Maghrbi, Y; Mancel, J; Manley, D M; McNicoll, E F; Mekterovic, D; Metag, V; Mushkarenkov, A; Nikolaev, A; Novotny, R; Oberle, M; Ortega, H; Ostrick, M; Ott, P; Otte, P B; Oussena, B; Pedroni, P; Polonski, A; Robinson, J; Rosner, G; Rostomyan, T; Schumann, S; Sikora, M H; Starostin, A; Strakovsky, I I; Strub, T; Suarez, I M; Supek, I; Tarbert, C M; Thiel, M; Thomas, A; Unverzagt, M; Watts, D P; Werthmueller, D; Witthauer, L

    2014-08-01

    A new measurement of the rare, doubly radiative decay eta->pi^0 gamma gamma was conducted with the Crystal Ball and TAPS multiphoton spectrometers together with the photon tagging facility at the Mainz Microtron MAMI. New data on the dependence of the partial decay width, Gamma(eta->pi^0 gamma gamma), on the two-photon invariant mass squared, m^2(gamma gamma), as well as a new, more precise value for the decay width, Gamma(eta->pi^0 gamma gamma) = (0.33+/-0.03_tot) eV, are based on analysis of 1.2 x 10^3 eta->pi^0 gamma gamma decays from a total of 6 x 10^7 eta mesons produced in the gamma p -> eta p reaction. The present results for dGamma(eta->pi^0 gamma gamma)/dm^2(gamma gamma) are in good agreement with previous measurements and recent theoretical calculations for this dependence.

  14. Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S

    2013-02-01

    Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.

  15. Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

    2015-12-01

    We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

  16. Operational foreshock forecasting: Fifteen years after

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogata, Y.

    2010-12-01

    We are concerned with operational forecasting of the probability that events are foreshocks of a forthcoming earthquake that is significantly larger (mainshock). Specifically, we define foreshocks as the preshocks substantially smaller than the mainshock by a magnitude gap of 0.5 or larger. The probability gain of foreshock forecast is extremely high compare to long-term forecast by renewal processes or various alarm-based intermediate-term forecasts because of a large event’s low occurrence rate in a short period and a narrow target region. Thus, it is desired to establish operational foreshock probability forecasting as seismologists have done for aftershocks. When a series of earthquakes occurs in a region, we attempt to discriminate foreshocks from a swarm or mainshock-aftershock sequence. Namely, after real time identification of an earthquake cluster using methods such as the single-link algorithm, the probability is calculated by applying statistical features that discriminate foreshocks from other types of clusters, by considering the events' stronger proximity in time and space and tendency towards chronologically increasing magnitudes. These features were modeled for probability forecasting and the coefficients of the model were estimated in Ogata et al. (1996) for the JMA hypocenter data (M≧4, 1926-1993). Currently, fifteen years has passed since the publication of the above-stated work so that we are able to present the performance and validation of the forecasts (1994-2009) by using the same model. Taking isolated events into consideration, the probability of the first events in a potential cluster being a foreshock vary in a range between 0+% and 10+% depending on their locations. This conditional forecasting performs significantly better than the unconditional (average) foreshock probability of 3.7% throughout Japan region. Furthermore, when we have the additional events in a cluster, the forecast probabilities range more widely from nearly 0% to

  17. Experimental and molecular dynamics simulation study of the sublimation and vaporization energetics of iron metalocenes. crystal structures of Fe(eta5-C5H4CH3)2 and Fe[(eta5-(C5H5)(eta5-C5H4CHO)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lousada, Claudio M; Pinto, Susana S; Lopes, José N Canongia; da Piedade, M Fatima Minas; Diogo, Hermínio P; da Piedade, Manuel E Minas

    2008-04-03

    The standard molar enthalpies of sublimation of ferrocene, 1,1'-dimethylferrocene, decamethylferrocene, ferrocenecarboxaldehyde and alpha-methylferrocenemethanol, and the enthalpy of vaporization of N,N-dimethyl(aminomethyl)ferrocene, at 298.15 K, were determined by Calvet-drop microcalorimetry and/or the Knudsen effusion method. The obtained values were used to assess and refine our previously developed force field for metallocenes. The modified force field was able to reproduce the deltasubHdegreesm and deltavapHdegreesm values of the test-set with an accuracy better than 5 kJ.mol-1, except for decamethylferrocene, in which case the deviation between the calculated and experimental deltasubHdegreesm values was 16.1 kJ.mol-1. The origin of the larger error found in the prediction of the sublimation energetics of decamethylferrocene, and which was also observed in the estimation of structural properties (e.g., density and unit cell dimensions), is discussed. Finally, the crystal structures of Fe(eta5-C5H4CH3)2 and Fe[(eta5-(C5H5)(eta5-C5H4CHO)] at 293 and 150 K, respectively, are reported.

  18. Study of the reaction π-p→eta'n

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleem, Mohammad; Fazal-e-Aleem

    1981-01-01

    The differential cross sections for the process π - p→eta'n measured very recently have been fitted by using simple Regge pole model with phenomenological residue functions and two exchanged trajectories A 2 and delta. The polarisations at p(lab)=15 and 40 GeV/c have been predicted

  19. Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekman, Annica [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    2000-02-01

    Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO{sub 2}(a)), sulfate in air (SO{sub 4}(a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO{sub 4}(aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}). Modeled concentrations of SO{sub 2}(a), SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO{sub 2}(a) concentration and underpredicts the SO{sub 4}(a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO{sub 2}(a) and 2-2.5 days for SO{sub 4}(a). For SO{sub 2}(a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO{sub 4}(a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO{sub 2}(a) to SO{sub 4}(a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations.

  20. The process F+- → Pπ+- as a mean for determining the strange content of eta'(iota) and the nature of the iota-meson

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bediaga, I.; Caruso, F.; Predazzi, E.

    1986-01-01

    Several tests that have been proposed to determine the various components (nonstrange, strange and gluonic) of the pseudoscalar mesons eta-eta'-iota are briefly reviewed. The constraints provided by these tests do not allow an unambiguous determination of the strange components of the eta' and iota mesons. It is suggested that this would follow from the experimental measurement of the branching ratios BR(F +- → eta'π +- ) and BR(F +- → iotaπ +- ). The decay F +- → iotaπ +- , in particular, would be crucial to understand the physical nature of the iota-meson or, differently stated, to establish (or to disprove) the validity of the eta-eta'-iota mixing

  1. a system approach to the long term forecasting of the climat data in baikal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abasov, N.; Berezhnykh, T.

    2003-04-01

    The Angara river running from Baikal with a cascade of hydropower plants built on it plays a peculiar role in economy of the region. With view of high variability of water inflow into the rivers and lakes (long-term low water periods and catastrophic floods) that is due to climatic peculiarities of the water resource formation, a long-term forecasting is developed and applied for risk decreasing at hydropower plants. Methodology and methods of long-term forecasting of natural-climatic processes employs some ideas of the research schools by Academician I.P.Druzhinin and Prof. A.P.Reznikhov and consists in detailed investigation of cause-effect relations, finding out physical analogs and their application to formalized methods of long-term forecasting. They are divided into qualitative (background method; method of analogs based on solar activity), probabilistic and approximative methods (analog-similarity relations; discrete-continuous model). These forecasting methods have been implemented in the form of analytical aids of the information-forecasting software "GIPSAR" that provides for some elements of artificial intelligence. Background forecasts of the runoff of the Ob, the Yenisei, the Angara Rivers in the south of Siberia are based on space-time regularities that were revealed on taking account of the phase shifts in occurrence of secular maxima and minima on integral-difference curves of many-year hydrological processes in objects compared. Solar activity plays an essential role in investigations of global variations of climatic processes. Its consideration in the method of superimposed epochs has allowed a conclusion to be made on the higher probability of the low-water period in the actual inflow to Lake Baikal that takes place on the increasing branch of solar activity of its 11-year cycle. The higher probability of a high-water period is observed on the decreasing branch of solar activity from the 2nd to the 5th year after its maximum. Probabilistic method

  2. Expected Increase of Activity of Eta Aquariids Meteor Shower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulikova, N. V.; Chepurova, V. M.

    2018-04-01

    Analysis of the results of modeling disintegration of Comet 1P/Halley after its flare in 1991 has allowed us to predict an increase of the activity of the associated Eta Aquariids meteor shower in April-May 2018.

  3. 7 CFR 1710.206 - Approval requirements for load forecasts prepared pursuant to approved load forecast work plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... financial ratings, and participation in reliability council, power pool, regional transmission group, power... analysis and modeling of the borrower's electric system loads as provided for in the load forecast work plan. (5) A narrative discussing the borrower's past, existing, and forecast of future electric system...

  4. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps. Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S. [James Martin Institute of Science and Civilization, Said Business School, University of Oxford, OX1 1HP (United Kingdom); Lach, D. [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331-4501 (United States); Ingram, H. [School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697-7075 (United States)

    2005-04-15

    Short-term climate forecasting offers the promise of improved hydrologic management strategies. However, water resource managers in the United States have proven reluctant to incorporate them in decision making. While managers usually cite poor reliability of the forecasts as the reason for this, they are seldom able to demonstrate knowledge of the actual performance of forecasts or to consistently articulate the level of reliability that they would require. Analysis of three case studies in California, the Pacific Northwest, and metro Washington DC identifies institutional reasons that appear to lie behind managers reluctance to use the forecasts. These include traditional reliance on large built infrastructure, organizational conservatism and complexity, mismatch of temporal and spatial scales of forecasts to management needs, political disincentives to innovation, and regulatory constraints. The paper concludes that wider acceptance of the forecasts will depend on their being incorporated in existing organizational routines and industrial codes and practices, as well as changes in management incentives to innovation. Finer spatial resolution of forecasts and the regional integration of multi-agency functions would also enhance their usability. The title of this article is taken from an advertising slogan for the Oldsmobile Bravura SUV.

  5. Impact of Forecast and Model Error Correlations In 4dvar Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zupanski, M.; Zupanski, D.; Vukicevic, T.; Greenwald, T.; Eis, K.; Vonder Haar, T.

    A weak-constraint 4DVAR data assimilation system has been developed at Cooper- ative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University. It is based on the NCEP's ETA 4DVAR system, and it is fully parallel (MPI coding). The CIRA's 4DVAR system is aimed for satellite data assimilation research, with cur- rent focus on assimilation of cloudy radiances and microwave satellite measurements. Most important improvement over the previous 4DVAR system is a degree of gener- ality introduced into the new algorithm, namely for applications with different NWP models (e.g., RAMS, WRF, ETA, etc.), and for the choice of control variable. In cur- rent applications, the non-hydrostatic RAMS model and its adjoint are used, including all microphysical processess. The control variable includes potential temperature, ve- locity potential and stream function, vertical velocity, and seven mixing ratios with respect to all water phases. Since the statistics of the microphysical components of the control variable is not well known, a special attention will be paid to the impact of the forecast and model (prior) error correlations on the 4DVAR analysis. In particular, the sensitivity of the analysis with respect to decorrelation length will be examined. The prior error covariances are modelled using the compactly-supported, space-limited correlations developed at NASA DAO.

  6. Ikerketaz gizarte langintzan: Sorburuak, kopuruak eta aburuak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kontxesi Berrio-Otxoa Otxoa de Angiozar

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false ES X-NONE X-NONE Artikulu honek jasotzen ditu gizarte langintzaren arloan ikerlanaren beharraz arduratu diren egile esanguratsuek gizarte langintzako ikerketari emandako definizioak. Bidenabar, gizarte langintzaren hastapenetan beste jakintza arloekin uztartuta egindako ikerketek izandako garrantzia ere azaltzen zaigu. Ikerketari buruzko aipuekin batera, ohartarazten zaigu ikerketa modu ezberdinetan ulertu izan dela gizarte langintzaren eremuan; eta horren harira, gizarte langileen jardunean ikerketak duen presentzia aztertu ondoren, egun ere, era ezberdinetan ulertu eta kategorizatzearen inguruko hausnarketa egiten du egileak. This article covers the different definitions of research in social work built up by the more significant authors who have worried about the need for doing research work on social work. At the same time, it show us the importance of combined research with other areas of knowledge that took place at the begginings of Social Work discipline. Moreover, the article worns us about the diferent ways that research has been understood in relation with social work and it points out the presence and importance of research in social worker´s daily work. Finally, the author offers us her reflexions on the different ways that research is understood and categorized nowadays.

  7. Eta Production at High Transverse Momentum by Negative 520 GeV/c Pions Incident on Beryllium and Copper Targets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roser, Robert Martin [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States)

    1994-01-01

    This thesis presents a measurement of the production of high transverse momentum 17 mesons by a 520 GeV /c $\\sqrt{s}$ = 31.2) $\\pi^-$ beam using data collected during the 1990 fixed target run of Fermilab experiment E706. E706 is a second generation fixed target experiment designed to measure direct-photon production in hadron-nucleus collisions. These data provide a clean test of perturbative QCD and serve as a valuable tool for probing hadronic structure. The $\\gamma\\gamma$ decay mode of the $\\eta$ meson was studied using data from a highly segmented electromagnetic lead liquid argon sampling calorimeter. Results are presented for inclusive $\\eta$ production by $\\pi^-$ beams on both beryllium and copper targets. The $\\eta$ to $\\pi^0$ production ratio and the nuclear dependence of the $\\eta$ production cross section are also reported. These results are for $\\eta$'s in the transverse momentum range 3.5 to 9 Ge V / c and the center of mass rapidity range -0.75 to 0.75, and are the highest energy results ever obtained for inclusive $\\eta$ production using a $\\pi^-$ beam.

  8. A coupled-channels analysis of pion scattering and pion-induced eta production on the nucleon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, R.K.; Bennhold, C.; Surya, Y.

    1995-01-01

    Motivated by new, upcoming Brookhaven data, pion scattering and pion-induced eta production on the nucleon in the S 11 (1535) resonance region is studied in an extension of the unitary, relativistic resonance model by Surya and Gross. The Kernel of the relativistic wave equation includes the nucleon, Roper, δ(1232), D 13 (1520) and S 11 (1535) pole terms along with contact σ- and ρ-like exchange terms. The formalism includes a coupling between the πN and ηN channels. The resonance parameters are adjusted to reproduce the experimental πN phase shifts

  9. Search for the decay $B^{0}_{s} \\to \\eta^{\\prime}\\phi$ at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Giani, Sebastiana

    2017-01-01

    A search for the charmless $B^{0}_{s} \\to \\eta^{\\prime}\\phi$ decay is performed using $pp$ collision data collected by the LHCb experiment at centre-of-mass energies of $7$ and $8$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$. No signal is observed and upper limits on the $B^{0}_{s} \\to \\eta^{\\prime}\\phi$ branching fraction are set to $0.82\\times 10^{-6}$ at $90\\%$ and $1.01\\times 10^{-6}$ at $95\\%$ confidence level.

  10. Measurement of the branching fractions of the $B^0_s\\to J/\\psi\\eta$, $B^0_s\\to J/\\psi\\eta^{\\prime}$ and $B^0\\to J\\psi\\omega$ decays in the LHCb experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Savrina, Daria

    First evidence of the $B^0\\to J/\\psi\\omega$ decay is found and the $B^0_s\\to J/\\psi\\eta$ and $B^0_s\\to J/\\psi\\eta^{\\prime}$ decays are studied using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 $\\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV. Branching fractions of these decays are measured relative to that of the $B^0\\to J/\\psi\\rho^0$ decay. All the channels under study contain photons in the final state. Precise determination of photons energies is essential for accurate measurement of the decays branching fractions. So, an auxiliary task was a regular calibration of the LHCb electromagnetic calorimeter with neutral pions. Values obtained for the $B^0_s\\to J/\\psi\\eta$ and $B^0_s\\to J/\\psi\\eta^{\\prime}$ decays branching fractions, as well as a ratio of these values, are found to be in a good agreement with both theoretical predictions and results of previous measurements. The $B^0\\to J/\\psi\\omega$ decay is seen for...

  11. First Observation of the Decay {tau}{sup {minus}} {r_arrow} K{sup {asterisk}{minus}}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bishai, M.; Chen, S.; Fast, J.; Hinson, J.W.; Menon, N.; Miller, D.H.; Shibata, E.I.; Shipsey, I.P. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Glenn, S.; Kwon, Y.; Lyon, A.L.; Roberts, S.; Thorndike, E.H. [University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627 (United States); Jessop, C.P.; Lingel, K.; Marsiske, H.; Perl, M.L.; Savinov, V.; Ugolini, D.; Zhou, X. [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94309 (United States); Coan, T.E.; Fadeyev, V.; Korolkov, I.; Maravin, Y.; Narsky, I.; Stroynowski, R.; Ye, J.; Wlodek, T. [Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas 75275 (United States); Artuso, M.; Dambasuren, E.; Kopp, S.; Moneti, G.C.; Mountain, R.; Schuh, S.; Skwarnicki, T.; Stone, S.; Titov, A.; Viehhauser, G.; Wang, J.C. [Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York 13244 (United States); Bartelt, J.; Csorna, S.E.; McLean, K.W.; Marka, S.; Xu, Z. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235 (United States); Godang, R.; Kinoshita, K.; Lai, I.C.; Pomianowski, P.; Schrenk, S. [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States); Bonvicini, G.; Cinabro, D.; Greene, R.; Perera, L.P.; Zhou, G.J. [Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan 48202 (United States); Chan, S.; Eigen, G.; Lipeles, E.; Miller, J.S.; Schmidtler, M.; Shapiro, A.; Sun, W.M.; Urheim, J.; Weinstein, A.J.; Wuerthwein, F. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125 (United States); Jaffe, D.E.; Masek, G.; Paar, H.P.; Potter, E.M.; Prell, S.; Sharma, V. [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093 (United States); Asner, D.M.; Gronberg, J.; Hill, T.S.; Lange, D.J.; Morrison, R.J.; Nelson, H.N.; Nelson, T.K.; Roberts, D. [University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States); Behrens, B.H.; Ford, W.T.; Gritsan, A.; Krieg, H.; Roy, J.; Smith, J.G. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0390 (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The decay {tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}K{sup {asterisk}{minus}}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}} has been observed with the CLEOthinspthinspII detector. The K{sup {asterisk}{minus}} is reconstructed in two decay channels, K{sup {asterisk}{minus}}{r_arrow}K{sub S}{pi}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow} {pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}} and K{sup {asterisk}{minus}}{r_arrow}K{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} . The {eta} is reconstructed from the decay {eta}{r_arrow}{gamma}{gamma} . The measured branching fraction is B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}K{sup {asterisk}{minus}} {eta}{nu}{sub {tau}})=(2.9{plus_minus} 0.8{plus_minus}0.4){times}10{sup {minus}4} . We also measure the inclusive branching fractions without requiring the K{sup {asterisk}} resonance, B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}K{sub S}{pi}{sup {minus}}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}})=(1.10 {plus_minus}0.35{plus_minus}0.11){times}10{sup {minus}4} and B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}K{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}})=(1.77 {plus_minus}0.56{plus_minus}0.71){times}10{sup {minus}4} . The results indicate that the K{sup {asterisk}{minus}} resonance dominates the K{sub S}{pi}{sup {minus}} mass spectrum. {copyright} {ital 1999} {ital The American Physical Society}

  12. Phi meson production in J/psi decays and determination of the spin and parity of the eta-C(2980)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spadafora, A.L.

    1984-01-01

    We have studied the production of phi mesons in J/psi decays with the Mark III detector at the SPEAR e+e - storage ring. General features of inclusive phi production are discussed as well as the observation of several exclusive channels containing phi's. From a sample of 2.7 million J/psi's, we have measured the branching ratio of J/psi → phi eta to be (6.8 +- 0.6 +- 0.9) x 10 -4 and that of J/psi → phi eta' to be (3.7 +- 0.6 +- 0.6) x 10 -4 . We also present the first observation of the sequential decay J/psi → γ eta c, eta c → phi phi, and we have measured the product branching ratio to be (1.02 +- 0.25 +- 0.14) x 10 -4 . The angular distributions of the final state particles in this decay mode give the first experimental determination that the spin and parity of the eta c are 0 - . 50 references, 47 figures

  13. Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, P.; Uvo, C.B.; Landman, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south......A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring...

  14. Enhanced short-term wind power forecasting and value to grid operations. The wind forecasting improvement project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). Transmission Grid Integration; Benjamin, Stan; Wilczak, James; Marquis, Melinda [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.; Stern, Andrew [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD (United States); Clark, Charlton; Cline, Joel [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Wind and Water Power Program; Finley, Catherine [WindLogics, Grand Rapids, MN (United States); Freedman, Jeffrey [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The current state-of-the-art wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-h timeframe has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risks to the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: (1) a one-year field measurement campaign within two regions; (2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and (3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provide an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis. (orig.)

  15. Forecasting electric demand of distribution system planing in rural and sparsely populated regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Buri, M.J. [ABB Automated Distribution Div., Raleigh, NC (United States); Finley, L.A. [Snohomish County PUD, Everett, WA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    Modern computerized distribution load forecasting methods, although accurate when applied to urban areas, give somewhat less satisfactory results when forecasting load growth in sparsely populated rural areas. This paper examines the differences between rural and urban load growth histories, identifying a major difference in the observed behavior of load growth. This difference is exploited in a new simulation forecasting algorithm. Tests show the new method is as accurate in forecasting rural load growth and as useful for analyzing DSM impacts than past methods, while requiring considerably lower computer resources and data than other simulation methods of comparable accuracy.

  16. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  17. High resolution simulations of orographic flow over a complex terrain on the Southeast coast of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S. C.; Zolino, M. M.; Gomes, J. L.; Bustamante, J. F.; Lima-e-Silva, P. P.

    2012-04-01

    The Eta Model is used operationally by CPTEC to produce weather forecasts over South America since 1997. The model has gone through upgrades. In order to prepare the model for operational higher resolution forecasts, the model is configured and tested over a region of complex topography located near the coast of Southeast Brazil. The Eta Model was configured, with 2-km horizontal resolution and 50 layers. The Eta-2km is a second nesting, it is driven by Eta-15km, which in its turn is driven by Era-Interim reanalyses. The model domain includes the two Brazilians cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, urban areas, preserved tropical forest, pasture fields, and complex terrain and coastline. Mountains can rise up to about 700m. The region suffers frequent events of floods and landslides. The objective of this work is to evaluate high resolution simulations of wind and temperature in this complex area. Verification of model runs uses observations taken from the nuclear power plant. Accurate near-surface wind direction and magnitude are needed for the plant emergency plan and winds are highly sensitive to model spatial resolution and atmospheric stability. Verification of two cases during summer shows that model has clear diurnal cycle signal for wind in that region. The area is characterized by weak winds which makes the simulation more difficult. The simulated wind magnitude is about 1.5m/s, which is close to observations of about 2m/s; however, the observed change of wind direction of the sea breeze is fast whereas it is slow in the simulations. Nighttime katabatic flow is captured by the simulations. Comparison against Eta-5km runs show that the valley circulation is better described in the 2-km resolution run. Simulated temperatures follow closely the observed diurnal cycle. Experiments improving some surface conditions such as the surface temperature and land cover show simulation error reduction and improved diurnal cycle.

  18. Production of high energy {eta}' in B meson decays from BaBar experiment; Etude de la production de {eta}' de haute impulsion dans les desintegrations du meson B dans l'experience BaBar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hicheur, A

    2003-04-01

    The work presented in this thesis relies on the analysis of data collected between october 1999 and July 2002 by the BaBar experiment at the PEP-II collider located at SLAC (Stanford, California). Electron-positron collisions at a center of mass energy equal to the {upsilon}(4S) resonance mass are used for the production of B meson pairs. In July 2001, the BaBar collaboration published the first measurement of CP violation in the neutral B mesons system. Since then, the precision of the measurement has been continually being improved with the increasing data sample. Two devices are dedicated to the reconstruction of charged particles: the Silicon Vertex Tracker and the Drift Chamber. The Silicon Vertex Tracker is crucial for the reconstruction of the B meson decay vertex. Its motion with regard to the Drift Chamber needs a rolling calibration of the corresponding alignment parameters roughly every two hours. The relation between the Drift Chamber geometry and the alignment has been studied. Beside CP violation, Heavy Flavour Physics is an other important issue of BaBar research program. Rare decays are of particular interest as they are sensible to a new physics beyond the Standard Model. The production of high energy {eta}' in B decays has been studied through the two main contributions, B{yields} {eta}' X{sub s} coming from the rare decay b {yields} sg*, and B-bar{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'D{sup 0} coming from the internal tree color suppressed decay b {yields} cud. The improvement of the measurement of the process B {yields} {eta}'X-s and the first. observation of the decay B-bar{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'D{sup 0} have led to the conclusion that the {eta}' production is dominated by the decay b {yields} sg* and enables to constrain its quark content. (author)

  19. The $\\eta_c$(2980) formation in two-photon collisions at LEP energies

    CERN Document Server

    Abdallah, J; Adam, W; Adzic, P; Albrecht, T; Alderweireld, T; Alemany-Fernandez, R; Allmendinger, T; Allport, P P; Amaldi, Ugo; Amapane, N; Amato, S; Anashkin, E; Andreazza, A; Andringa, S; Anjos, N; Antilogus, P; Apel, W D; Arnoud, Y; Ask, S; Åsman, B; Augustin, J E; Augustinus, A; Baillon, Paul; Ballestrero, A; Bambade, P; Barbier, R; Bardin, Dimitri Yuri; Barker, G; Baroncelli, A; Battaglia, Marco; Baubillier, M; Becks, K H; Begalli, M; Behrmann, A; Ben-Haim, E; Benekos, N C; Benvenuti, Alberto C; Bérat, C; Berggren, M; Berntzon, L; Bertrand, D; Besançon, M; Besson, N; Bloch, D; Blom, M; Bluj, M; Bonesini, M; Boonekamp, M; Booth, P S L; Borisov, G; Botner, O; Bouquet, B; Bowcock, T J V; Boyko, I; Bracko, M; Brenner, R; Brodet, E; Brückman, P; Brunet, J M; Bugge, L; Buschmann, P; Calvi, M; Camporesi, T; Canale, V; Carena, F; Castro, N; Cavallo, F R; Chapkin, M M; Charpentier, P; Checchia, P; Chierici, R; Shlyapnikov, P; Chudoba, J; Chung, S U; Cieslik, K; Collins, P; Contri, R; Cosme, G; Cossutti, F; Costa, M J; Crawley, B; Crennell, D J; Cuevas-Maestro, J; D'Hondt, J; Dalmau, J; Da Silva, T; Da Silva, W; Della Ricca, G; De Angelis, A; de Boer, Wim; De Clercq, C; De Lotto, B; De Maria, N; De Min, A; De Paula, L S; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Simone, A; Doroba, K; Drees, J; Dris, M; Eigen, G; Ekelöf, T J C; Ellert, M; Elsing, M; Espirito-Santo, M C; Fanourakis, G K; Fassouliotis, D; Feindt, M; Fernández, J; Ferrer, A; Ferro, F; Flagmeyer, U; Föth, H; Fokitis, E; Fulda-Quenzer, F; Fuster, J A; Gandelman, M; García, C; Gavillet, P; Gazis, E N; Gokieli, R; Golob, B; Gómez-Ceballos, G; Gonçalves, P; Graziani, E; Grosdidier, G; Grzelak, K; Guy, J; Haag, C; Hallgren, A; Hamacher, K; Hamilton, K; Hansen, J; Haug, S; Hauler, F; Hedberg, V; Hennecke, M; Herr, H; Hoffman, J; Holmgren, S O; Holt, P J; Houlden, M A; Hultqvist, K; Jackson, J N; Jarlskog, G; Jarry, P; Jeans, D; Johansson, E K; Johansson, P D; Jonsson, P; Joram, C; Jungermann, L; Kapusta, F; Katsanevas, S; Katsoufis, E C; Kernel, G; Kersevan, Borut P; Kiiskinen, A P; King, B T; Kjaer, N J; Kluit, P; Kokkinias, P; Kourkoumelis, C; Kuznetsov, O; Krumshtein, Z; Kucharczyk, M; Lamsa, J; Leder, G; Ledroit, F; Leinonen, L; Leitner, R; Lemonne, J; Lepeltier, V; Lesiak, T; Liebig, W; Liko, D; Lipniacka, A; Lopes, J H; López, J M; Loukas, D; Lutz, P; Lyons, L; MacNaughton, J; Malek, A; Maltezos, S; Mandl, F; Marco, J; Marco, R; Maréchal, B; Margoni, M; Marin, J C; Mariotti, C; Markou, A; Martínez-Rivero, C; Masik, J; Mastroyiannopoulos, N; Matorras, F; Matteuzzi, C; Mazzucato, F; Mazzucato, M; McNulty, R; Meroni, C; Meyer, W T; Migliore, E; Mitaroff, W A; Mjörnmark, U; Moa, T; Moch, M; Mönig, K; Monge, R; Montenegro, J; Moraes, D; Moreno, S; Morettini, P; Müller, U; Münich, K; Mulders, M; Mundim, L M; Murray, W; Muryn, B; Myatt, Gerald; Myklebust, T; Nassiakou, M; Navarria, Francesco Luigi; Nawrocki, K; Nicolaidou, R; Nikolenko, M; Oblakowska-Mucha, A; Obraztsov, V F; Olshevskii, A G; Onofre, A; Orava, Risto; Österberg, K; Ouraou, A; Oyanguren, A; Paganoni, M; Paiano, S; Palacios, J P; Palka, H; Papadopoulou, T D; Pape, L; Parkes, C; Parodi, F; Parzefall, U; Passeri, A; Passon, O; Peralta, L; Perepelitsa, V F; Perrotta, A; Petrolini, A; Piedra, J; Pieri, L; Pierre, F; Pimenta, M; Piotto, E; Podobnik, T; Poireau, V; Pol, M E; Polok, G; Poropat, P; Pozdnyakov, V; Pukhaeva, N; Pullia, Antonio; Rames, J; Ramler, L; Read, A; Rebecchi, P; Rehn, J; Reid, D; Reinhardt, R; Renton, P B; Richard, F; Rídky, J; Rivero, M; Rodríguez, D; Romero, A; Ronchese, P; Rosenberg, E I; Roudeau, Patrick; Rovelli, T; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V; Ryabtchikov, D; Sadovskii, A; Salmi, L; Salt, J; Savoy-Navarro, A; Schwickerath, U; Segar, A; Sekulin, R L; Siebel, M; Sissakian, A N; Smadja, G; Smirnova, O G; Sokolov, A; Sopczak, A; Sosnowski, R; Spassoff, Tz; Stanitzki, M; Stocchi, A; Strauss, J; Stugu, B; Szczekowski, M; Szeptycka, M; Szumlak, T; Tabarelli de Fatis, T; Taffard, A C; Tegenfeldt, F; Timmermans, J; Tkatchev, L G; Tobin, M; Todorovova, S; Tomé, B; Tonazzo, A; Tortosa, P; Travnicek, P; Treille, D; Tristram, G; Trochimczuk, M; Troncon, C; Turluer, M L; Tyapkin, I A; Tyapkin, P; Tzamarias, S; Uvarov, V; Valenti, G; van Dam, P; Van Eldik, J; Van Lysebetten, A; Van Remortel, N; Van Vulpen, I B; Vegni, G; Veloso, F; Venus, W A; Verbeure, F; Verdier, P; Verzi, V; Vilanova, D; Vitale, L; Vrba, V; Wahlen, H; Washbrook, A J; Weiser, C; Wicke, D; Wickens, J H; Wilkinson, G; Winter, M; Witek, M; Yushchenko, O P; Zalewska-Bak, A; Zalewski, Piotr; Zavrtanik, D; Zhuravlov, V; Zimin, N I; Zinchenko, A I; Zupan, M

    2003-01-01

    eta_c(2980) production in gammagamma interactions has been detected via its decays into K0_sK+-pi-+, K+K-K+K- and K+K-pi+pi- in the data taken with the DELPHI detector at LEP1 and LEP2 energies. The two-photon radiative width averaged over all observed decay channels is Gamma_gammagamma = 13.9+-2.0(stat.)+-1.4(syst.)+-2.7(BR)keV. No direct decay channel eta_c -> pi+pi-pi+pi- has been observed. An upper limit Gamma_gammagamma<5.5keV at 95% confidence level has been evaluated for this decay mode.

  20. DNA polymerase eta participates in the mutagenic bypass of adducts induced by benzo[a]pyrene diol epoxide in mammalian cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alden C Klarer

    Full Text Available Y-family DNA-polymerases have larger active sites that can accommodate bulky DNA adducts allowing them to bypass these lesions during replication. One member, polymerase eta (pol eta, is specialized for the bypass of UV-induced thymidine-thymidine dimers, correctly inserting two adenines. Loss of pol eta function is the molecular basis for xeroderma pigmentosum (XP variant where the accumulation of mutations results in a dramatic increase in UV-induced skin cancers. Less is known about the role of pol eta in the bypass of other DNA adducts. A commonly encountered DNA adduct is that caused by benzo[a]pyrene diol epoxide (BPDE, the ultimate carcinogenic metabolite of the environmental chemical benzo[a]pyrene. Here, treatment of pol eta-deficient fibroblasts from humans and mice with BPDE resulted in a significant decrease in Hprt gene mutations. These studies in mammalian cells support a number of in vitro reports that purified pol eta has error-prone activity on plasmids with site-directed BPDE adducts. Sequencing the Hprt gene from this work shows that the majority of mutations are G>T transversions. These data suggest that pol eta has error-prone activity when bypassing BPDE-adducts. Understanding the basis of environmental carcinogen-derived mutations may enable prevention strategies to reduce such mutations with the intent to reduce the number of environmentally relevant cancers.

  1. ({alpha},{eta}) phase diagrams in tilted chiral smectics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rjili, M., E-mail: medrjili@yahoo.fr [Laboratoire de Physique de la Matiere Molle et de la Modelisation Electromagnetique, Faculte des Sciences de Tunis, Universite Tunis El Manar, 2092 El Manar Tunis (Tunisia); Marcerou, J.P., E-mail: marcerou@crpp-bordeaux.cnrs.fr [Centre de Recherches Paul Pascal, 115, Av. Albert-Schweitzer, 33600 Pessac (France); Gharbi, A.; Othman, T. [Laboratoire de Physique de la Matiere Molle et de la Modelisation Electromagnetique, Faculte des Sciences de Tunis, Universite Tunis El Manar, 2092 El Manar Tunis (Tunisia)

    2013-02-01

    The polymorphism of tilted chiral smectics liquid crystals is incredibly rich and encompasses many subphases such as SmC{sub A}{sup Low-Asterisk }; SmC{sub Fi1}{sup Low-Asterisk }; SmC{sub Fi2}{sup Low-Asterisk }; SmC{sup Low-Asterisk }; SmC{sub {alpha}}{sup Low-Asterisk }. The continuum theory established by Marcerou (2010) is used to derive an expression for the free energy density of those subphases. The minimization of this free energy is obtained through a combination of analytical and numerical methods. It leads to a phase diagram built in the ({alpha},{eta}) plane where {alpha} is local angular parameter and {eta} describes the variation of the temperature. From this graphical representation, many experimentally observed phase sequences of ferroelectric liquid crystals can be explained, even them including subphases which were recently observed like the SmC{sub 5}{sup Low-Asterisk} and the SmC{sub 6}{sup Low-Asterisk} ones. However, it should be emphasized that the details of predicted phase diagram are strongly dependent on the compound studied.

  2. Chirally motivated separable potential model for eta N amplitudes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cieplý, Aleš; Smejkal, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 919, DEC (2013), s. 46-66 ISSN 0375-9474 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP203/12/2126 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : Chrial model * eta-nucleon amplitude * Baryon resonances Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 2.499, year: 2013

  3. A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System: Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yujie; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng; Wang, Mingjun

    2018-05-01

    A dual-resolution (DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-3D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution (HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution (LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/˜13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D variational (3DVar) analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar. Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.

  4. Chelate-size effects on the structures, chemical behavior, properties, and catalytic activity of the new palladium(II)-allyl complexes [Pd(eta(3)-1-R-1-C3H4){FcCH=N-CH2-(CH2)(n)-NMe2}][PF6] {Fc = (eta(5)-C5H5)Fe(eta(5)-C5H4), n=2 or 1, and R-1 = h or ph}

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez, S.; López, C.; Bosque, R.; Solans, X.; Font-Bardía, M.; Roig, A.; Molins, E.; van Leeuwen, P.W.N.M.; van Strijdonck, G.P.F.; Freixa, Z.

    2008-01-01

    The synthesis, X-ray crystal structures, and the study of the solution behavior of the palladium(II) allyl complexes [Pd(eta(3)-1R(1)-C3H4){FcCH=N-CH2-(CH2)(n)-NMe2}][PF6] {with Fc = (eta(5)-C5H5)Fe(eta(5)-C5H4), R-1 = H, and n = 2 (4) or 1 (5) or R-1 = Ph and n = 2 (6) or 1 (7)} are described. The

  5. North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) [12 km

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) is one of the major regional weather forecast models run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction...

  6. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  7. A measurement of the reaction e+e- → e+e-n' and the radiative width GAMMAsub(eta'→γγ) at PETRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartel, W.; Cords, D.; Dittmann, P.; Eichler, R.; Felst, R.; Haidt, D.; Krehbiel, H.; Meier, K.; Naroska, B.; O'Neill, L.H.

    1982-02-01

    The reaction e + e - → e + e - eta' has been observed in the JADE experiment at PETRA, by detecting the final state π + π - γ, resulting from the decay eta' → γrho 0 . The cross section was measured to be sigma(e + e - → e + e - eta') = 2.2 +- 0.2 (stat.) +- 0.4 (syst.) nb, yielding the radiative width GAMMAsub(eta'γγ) = 5.0 +- 0.5 (stat.) +- 0.9 (syst.) keV. (orig.)

  8. Forecasting forest chip energy production in Finland 2008-2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Energy policy measures aim to increase energy production from forest chips in Finland to 10 TWh by year 2010. However, on the regional level production differences are large, and the regional estimates of the potential base of raw materials for the production of forest chips are heterogeneous. In order to analyse the validity of the above target, two methods are proposed to derive forecasts for region-level energy production from forest chips in Finland in the years 2008-2014. The plant-level data from 2003-2007 gives a starting point for a detailed statistical analysis of present and future region-level forest chip production. Observed 2008 regional levels are above the estimated prediction 95% confidence intervals based on aggregation of plant-level time averages. A simple time trend model with fixed-region effects provides accurate forecasts for the years 2008-2014. Forest chip production forecast confidence intervals cover almost all regions for the 2008 levels and the estimates of potential production levels for 2014. The forecast confidence intervals are also derived with re-sampling methods, i.e. with bootstrap methods, to obtain more reliable results. Results confirm that a general materials shortfall is not expected in the near future for forest chip energy production in Finland.

  9. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  10. Forecasting gaming revenues in Clark County, Nevada: Issues and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, B.K.; Bando, A.

    1992-07-01

    This paper describes the Western Area Gaming and Economic Response Simulator (WAGERS), a forecasting model that emphasizes the role of the gaming industry in Clark County, Nevada. Is is designed to generate forecasts of gaming revenues in Clark County, whose regional economy is dominated by the gaming industry. The model is meant to forecast Clark County gaming revenues and identifies the exogenous variables that affect gaming revenues. It will provide baseline forecasts of Clark County gaming revenues in order to assess changes in gaming-related economic activity resulting from changes in regional economic activity and tourism.

  11. Multiscale seismicity analysis and forecasting: examples from the Western Pacific and Iceland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhard, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    updated after every earthquake M ≥ 3. Three different models (ETAS, STEP and TripleS) and an ensemble model consisting of three different models are used for this experiment. I found that while there is still room for improvement, the forecasts model are capable of producing usable forecasts even with the sparsely processed earthquake catalogue. The ensemble forecast has the highest information gain, but the difference to the best non-ensemble model is not significant. Chapter 5 is about the technical aspects of seismicity analysis and forecasting. I introduce in this a new software framework called MapSeis. MapSeis is an open-source software framework with focus on statistical seismology and seismicity forecasting and testing. It has been written by myself and is used in every single step in this thesis; because of the rather long development times and diverse tasks for which it has been used, it provides a large variety of handy tools and functions and should address the needs of many scientist working in this field. MapSeis has been built with expandability and maintainability in mind and features a PlugIn system and clearly defined application interfaces (API). My contribution to the three challenges will help to improve seismicity forecasting, but there is still room for improvement and especially the application of Operation Earthquake Forecasting needs to be discussed, not only by scientists but also by the public. (author)

  12. Multiscale seismicity analysis and forecasting: examples from the Western Pacific and Iceland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberhard, A. J.

    2014-07-01

    updated after every earthquake M ≥ 3. Three different models (ETAS, STEP and TripleS) and an ensemble model consisting of three different models are used for this experiment. I found that while there is still room for improvement, the forecasts model are capable of producing usable forecasts even with the sparsely processed earthquake catalogue. The ensemble forecast has the highest information gain, but the difference to the best non-ensemble model is not significant. Chapter 5 is about the technical aspects of seismicity analysis and forecasting. I introduce in this a new software framework called MapSeis. MapSeis is an open-source software framework with focus on statistical seismology and seismicity forecasting and testing. It has been written by myself and is used in every single step in this thesis; because of the rather long development times and diverse tasks for which it has been used, it provides a large variety of handy tools and functions and should address the needs of many scientist working in this field. MapSeis has been built with expandability and maintainability in mind and features a PlugIn system and clearly defined application interfaces (API). My contribution to the three challenges will help to improve seismicity forecasting, but there is still room for improvement and especially the application of Operation Earthquake Forecasting needs to be discussed, not only by scientists but also by the public. (author)

  13. Observation of $\\eta_{c}(2S) \\to p \\bar p$ and search for $X(3872) \\to p \\bar p$ decays

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel

    2017-06-10

    The first observation of the decay $\\eta_{c}(2S) \\to p \\bar p$ is reported using proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $3.0\\rm \\, fb^{-1}$ recorded by the LHCb experiment at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV. The $\\eta_{c}(2S)$ resonance is produced in the decay $B^{+} \\to [c\\bar c] K^{+}$. The product of branching fractions normalised to that for the $J/\\psi$ intermediate state, ${\\cal R}_{\\eta_{c}(2S)}$, is measured to be \\begin{align*} {\\cal R}_{\\eta_{c}(2S)}\\equiv\\frac{{\\mathcal B}(B^{+} \\to \\eta_{c}(2S) K^{+}) \\times {\\mathcal B}(\\eta_{c}(2S) \\to p \\bar p)}{{\\mathcal B}(B^{+} \\to J/\\psi K^{+}) \\times {\\mathcal B}(J/\\psi\\to p \\bar p)} =~& (1.58 \\pm 0.33 \\pm 0.09)\\times 10^{-2}, \\end{align*} where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. No signals for the decays $B^{+} \\to X(3872) (\\to p \\bar p) K^{+}$ and $B^{+} \\to \\psi(3770) (\\to p \\bar p) K^{+}$ are seen, and the 95\\% confidence level upper limits on their relative branching ratios ar...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01-01 to 2007-09-05

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) was developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center, the...

  15. 31 CFR Appendix B to Part 208 - Model Disclosure for Use After ETA SM Becomes Available

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., low-cost accounts in addition to full-service checking or savings accounts. (2) Receive your payment through a basic, low-cost account called an ETA SM. If you receive a Federal benefit, wage, salary, or retirement payment, you are eligible to open an ETA SM. This account is available for a low monthly fee at...

  16. INSERTION CHEMISTRY OF CP-ASTERISK(2)Y(2-PYRIDYL) AND MOLECULAR-STRUCTURE OF THE UNEXPECTED CO INSERTION PRODUCT (CP-ASTERISK(2)Y)2(MU-ETA-2-ETA-2-OC(NC5H4)2)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DEELMAN, BJ; STEVELS, WM; TEUBEN, JH; LAKIN, MT; SPEK, AL

    1994-01-01

    Pyridine is metalated selectively at the 2-position by (Cp*2YH)2 to yield Cp*2Y(2-pyridyl) (1). Compound 1 reacts with H2 to give the hydride addition product Cp*2Y(NC5H6) (2). With THF and pyridine the adducts Cp*2Y(eta2-2-pyridyl)(THF) (3) and Cp*2Y(eta1-2-pyridyl)-(py) (4) are formed. The

  17. 31 CFR 208.5 - Availability of the ETA SM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Availability of the ETA SM. 208.5 Section 208.5 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERVICE MANAGEMENT OF FEDERAL AGENCY...

  18. A comparative study of artificial neural network, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and support vector machine for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhibin; Wen, Xiaohu; Liu, Hu; Du, Jun

    2014-02-01

    Data driven models are very useful for river flow forecasting when the underlying physical relationships are not fully understand, but it is not clear whether these data driven models still have a good performance in the small river basin of semiarid mountain regions where have complicated topography. In this study, the potential of three different data driven methods, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region, northwestern China. The models analyzed different combinations of antecedent river flow values and the appropriate input vector has been selected based on the analysis of residuals. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in training and validation sets are compared with the observed data. The model which consists of three antecedent values of flow has been selected as the best fit model for river flow forecasting. To get more accurate evaluation of the results of ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, the four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and mean absolute relative error (MARE), were employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. The results indicate that the performance obtained by ANN, ANFIS and SVM in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation period does not vary substantially; the performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in river flow forecasting was satisfactory. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the SVM model performed better than ANN and ANFIS in river flow forecasting for the validation data sets. The results also suggest that ANN, ANFIS and SVM method can be successfully applied to establish river flow with complicated topography forecasting models in the semiarid mountain regions.

  19. Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargreaves, Anthony; Cheng, Vicky; Deshmukh, Sandip; Leach, Matthew; Steemers, Koen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An innovative model for testing combinations of spatial planning and decentralised energy supply. • An improved method of modelling the spatial variability of energy consumption per dwelling type. • Shows how spatial planning would affect the future carbon reduction of decentralised supply. • Forecasts the future carbon reduction and costs of retrofitting and decentralised supply. • A method of forecasting how residential space would affect the suitability of decentralised supply. - Abstract: Low carbon energy supply technologies are increasingly used at the building and community scale and are an important part of the government decarbonisation strategy. However, with their present state of development and costs, many of these decentralised technologies rely on public subsidies to be financially viable. It is questionable whether they are cost effective compared to other ways of reducing carbon emissions, such as decarbonisation of conventional supply and improving the energy efficiency of dwellings. Previous studies have found it difficult to reliably estimate the future potential of decentralised supply because this depends on the available residential space which varies greatly within a city region. To address this problem, we used an integrated modelling framework that converted the residential density forecasts of a regional model into a representation of the building dimensions and land of the future housing stock. This included a method of estimating the variability of the dwellings and residential land. We present the findings of a case study of the wider south east regions of England that forecasted the impacts of energy efficiency and decentralised supply scenarios to year 2031. Our novel and innovative method substantially improves the spatial estimates of energy consumption compared to building energy models that only use standard dwelling typologies. We tested the impact of an alternative spatial planning policy on the future

  20. Progress in ETA-II magnetic field alignment using stretched wire and low energy electron beam techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffith, L.V.; Deadrick, F.J.

    1991-01-01

    Flux line alignment of the solenoidal focus magnets used on the ETA-II linear induction accelerator is a key element leading to a reduction of beam corkscrew motion. Two techniques have been used on the ETA-II accelerator to measure and establish magnet alignment. A low energy electron beam has been used to directly map magnetic field lines, and recent work has utilized a pulsed stretched wire technique to measure magnet tilts and offsets with respect to a reference axis. This paper reports on the techniques used in the ETA-II accelerator alignment, and presents results from those measurements which show that accelerator is magnetically aligned to within ∼ ± 200 microns

  1. A study of tau decays involving eta and omega mesons

    CERN Document Server

    Buskulic, Damir; Décamp, D; Ghez, P; Goy, C; Lees, J P; Lucotte, A; Minard, M N; Nief, J Y; Odier, P; Pietrzyk, B; Casado, M P; Chmeissani, M; Crespo, J M; Delfino, M C; Efthymiopoulos, I; Fernández, E; Fernández-Bosman, M; Carrido, L; Juste, A; Martínez, M; Orteu, S; Padilla, C; Park, I C; Pascual, A; Perlas, J A; Riu, I; Sánchez, F; Teubert, F; Colaleo, A; Creanza, D; De Palma, M; Gelao, G; Girone, M; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, G; Maggi, M; Marinelli, N; Nuzzo, S; Ranieri, A; Raso, G; Ruggieri, F; Selvaggi, G; Silvestris, L; Tempesta, P; Tricomi, A; Zito, G; Huang, X; Lin, J; Ouyang, Q; Wang, T; Xie, Y; Xu, R; Xue, S; Zhang, J; Zhang, L; Zhao, W; Alemany, R; Bazarko, A O; Bonvicini, G; Bright-Thomas, P G; Cattaneo, M; Comas, P; Coyle, P; Drevermann, H; Forty, Roger W; Frank, M; Hagelberg, R; Harvey, J; Janot, P; Jost, B; Kneringer, E; Knobloch, J; Lehraus, Ivan; Lutters, G; Martin, E B; Mato, P; Minten, Adolf G; Miquel, R; Mir, L M; Moneta, L; Oest, T; Pacheco, A; Pusztaszeri, J F; Ranjard, F; Rensing, P E; Rizzo, G; Rolandi, Luigi; Schlatter, W D; Schmelling, M; Schmitt, M; Schneider, O; Tejessy, W; Tomalin, I R; Venturi, A; Wachsmuth, H W; Wagner, A; Ajaltouni, Ziad J; Barrès, A; Boyer, C; Falvard, A; Gay, P; Guicheney, C; Henrard, P; Jousset, J; Michel, B; Monteil, S; Montret, J C; Pallin, D; Perret, P; Podlyski, F; Proriol, J; Rosnet, P; Rossignol, J M; Fearnley, Tom; Hansen, J B; Hansen, J D; Hansen, J R; Hansen, P H; Nilsson, B S; Rensch, B; Wäänänen, A; Kyriakis, A; Markou, C; Simopoulou, Errietta; Siotis, I; Vayaki, Anna; Zachariadou, K; Blondel, A; Bonneaud, G R; Brient, J C; Bourdon, P; Rougé, A; Rumpf, M; Valassi, Andrea; Verderi, M; Videau, H L; Candlin, D J; Parsons, M I; Focardi, E; Parrini, G; Corden, M; Georgiopoulos, C H; Jaffe, D E; Antonelli, A; Bencivenni, G; Bologna, G; Bossi, F; Campana, P; Capon, G; Casper, David William; Chiarella, V; Felici, G; Laurelli, P; Mannocchi, G; Murtas, F; Murtas, G P; Passalacqua, L; Pepé-Altarelli, M; Curtis, L; Dorris, S J; Halley, A W; Knowles, I G; Lynch, J G; O'Shea, V; Raine, C; Reeves, P; Scarr, J M; Smith, K; Teixeira-Dias, P; Thompson, A S; Thomson, F; Thorn, S; Turnbull, R M; Becker, U; Geweniger, C; Graefe, G; Hanke, P; Hansper, G; Hepp, V; Kluge, E E; Putzer, A; Schmidt, M; Sommer, J; Tittel, K; Werner, S; Wunsch, M; Abbaneo, D; Beuselinck, R; Binnie, David M; Cameron, W; Dornan, Peter J; Moutoussi, A; Nash, J; Sedgbeer, J K; Stacey, A M; Williams, M D; Dissertori, G; Girtler, P; Kuhn, D; Rudolph, G; Betteridge, A P; Bowdery, C K; Colrain, P; Crawford, G; Finch, A J; Foster, F; Hughes, G; Sloan, Terence; Williams, M I; Galla, A; Giehl, I; Greene, A M; Hoffmann, C; Jakobs, K; Kleinknecht, K; Quast, G; Renk, B; Rohne, E; Sander, H G; Van Gemmeren, P; Zeitnitz, C; Aubert, Jean-Jacques; Bencheikh, A M; Benchouk, C; Bonissent, A; Bujosa, G; Calvet, D; Carr, J; Diaconu, C A; Etienne, F; Konstantinidis, N P; Payre, P; Rousseau, D; Talby, M; Sadouki, A; Thulasidas, M; Trabelsi, K; Aleppo, M; Ragusa, F; Bauer, C; Berlich, R; Blum, Walter; Büscher, V; Dietl, H; Dydak, Friedrich; Ganis, G; Gotzhein, C; Kroha, H; Lütjens, G; Lutz, Gerhard; Männer, W; Moser, H G; Richter, R H; Rosado-Schlosser, A; Schael, S; Settles, Ronald; Seywerd, H C J; Saint-Denis, R; Stenzel, H; Wiedenmann, W; Wolf, G; Boucrot, J; Callot, O; Choi, Y; Cordier, A; Davier, M; Duflot, L; Grivaz, J F; Heusse, P; Höcker, A; Jacholkowska, A; Jacquet, M; Kim, D W; Le Diberder, F R; Lefrançois, J; Lutz, A M; Nikolic, I A; Park, H J; Schune, M H; Simion, S; Veillet, J J; Videau, I; Zerwas, D; Azzurri, P; Bagliesi, G; Batignani, G; Bettarini, S; Bozzi, C; Calderini, G; Carpinelli, M; Ciocci, M A; Ciulli, V; Dell'Orso, R; Fantechi, R; Ferrante, I; Foà, L; Forti, F; Giassi, A; Giorgi, M A; Gregorio, A; Ligabue, F; Lusiani, A; Marrocchesi, P S; Messineo, A; Palla, Fabrizio; Sanguinetti, G; Sciabà, A; Spagnolo, P; Steinberger, Jack; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, G; Vannini, C; Verdini, P G; Walsh, J; Blair, G A; Bryant, L M; Cerutti, F; Chambers, J T; Gao, Y; Green, M G; Medcalf, T; Perrodo, P; Strong, J A; Von Wimmersperg-Töller, J H; Botterill, David R; Clifft, R W; Edgecock, T R; Haywood, S; Maley, P; Norton, P R; Thompson, J C; Wright, A E; Bloch-Devaux, B; Colas, P; Emery, S; Kozanecki, Witold; Lançon, E; Lemaire, M C; Locci, E; Marx, B; Pérez, P; Rander, J; Renardy, J F; Roussarie, A; Schuller, J P; Schwindling, J; Trabelsi, A; Vallage, B; Black, S N; Dann, J H; Johnson, R P; Kim, H Y; Litke, A M; McNeil, M A; Taylor, G; Booth, C N; Boswell, R; Brew, C A J; Cartwright, S L; Combley, F; Köksal, A; Lehto, M H; Newton, W M; Reeve, J; Thompson, L F; Böhrer, A; Brandt, S; Cowan, G D; Grupen, Claus; Minguet-Rodríguez, J A; Rivera, F; Saraiva, P; Smolik, L; Stephan, F; Apollonio, M; Bosisio, L; Della Marina, R; Giannini, G; Gobbo, B; Musolino, G; Rothberg, J E; Wasserbaech, S R; Armstrong, S R; Elmer, P; Feng, Z; Ferguson, D P S; Gao, Y S; González, S; Grahl, J; Greening, T C; Hayes, O J; Hu, H; McNamara, P A; Nachtman, J M; Orejudos, W; Pan, Y B; Saadi, Y; Scott, I J; Walsh, A M; Wu, X; Yamartino, J M; Zheng, M; Zobernig, G

    1997-01-01

    The 132 pb$^{-1}$ of data collected by ALEPH from 1991 to 1994 have been used to analyze $\\eta$ and $\\omega$ production in $\\tau$ decays. The following branching fractions have been measured: \\begin{eqnarray*} B(\\tau^-\\to\

  2. Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leontiy Viktorovich Eder

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018–2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: from 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia.

  3. Branching Fraction Measurements of the Color-Suppressed Decays B0bar to D(*)0 pi0, D(*)0 eta, D(*)0 omega, and D(*)0 eta_prime and Measurement of the Polarization in the Decay B0bar to D*0 omega

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lees, J.P.; Poireau, V.; Tisserand, V.; /Annecy, LAPP; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; /Barcelona U., ECM; Martinelli, M.; /INFN, Bari /Bari U.; Milanes, D.A.; /INFN, Bari; Palano, A.; Pappagallo, M.; /INFN, Bari /Bari U.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; /Bergen U.; Brown, D.N.; Kerth, L.T.; Kolomensky, Yu.G.; Lynch, G.; /UC, Berkeley; Koch, H.; Schroeder, T.; /Ruhr U., Bochum; Asgeirsson, D.J.; Hearty, C.; Mattison, T.S.; McKenna, J.A.; /British Columbia U. /Brunel U. /Novosibirsk, IYF /UC, Irvine /UC, Riverside /UC, Santa Barbara /UC, Santa Cruz /Caltech /Cincinnati U. /Colorado U. /Colorado State U. /Dortmund U. /Dresden, Tech. U. /Ecole Polytechnique /Edinburgh U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /Frascati /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /Indian Inst. Tech., Guwahati /Harvard U. /Harvey Mudd Coll. /Heidelberg U. /Humboldt U., Berlin /Imperial Coll., London /Iowa State U. /Iowa State U. /Johns Hopkins U. /Paris U., VI-VII /LLNL, Livermore /Liverpool U. /Queen Mary, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Louisville U. /Mainz U., Inst. Kernphys. /Manchester U. /Maryland U. /Massachusetts U., Amherst /MIT /McGill U. /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /INFN, Milan /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /Mississippi U. /Montreal U. /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /Notre Dame U. /Ohio State U. /Oregon U. /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /INFN, Padua /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /Paris U., VI-VII /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Princeton U. /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /Rostock U. /Rutherford /DAPNIA, Saclay /SLAC /South Carolina U. /Southern Methodist U. /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SUNY, Albany /Tel Aviv U. /Tennessee U. /Texas Nuclear Corp., Austin /Texas U. /INFN, Turin /Turin U. /INFN, Trieste /Trieste U. /Valencia U. /Victoria U. /Warwick U. /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2012-02-14

    We report updated branching fraction measurements of the color-suppressed decays {bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, D*{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, D{sup 0}{eta}, D*{sup 0}{eta}, D{sup 0}{omega}, D*{sup 0}{omega}, D{sup 0}{eta}', and D*{sup 0}{eta}'. We measure the branching fractions (x10{sup -4}): {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = 2.69 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.13, {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D*{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = 3.05 {+-} 0.14 {+-} 0.28, {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{eta}) = 2.53 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.11, {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D*{sup 0}{eta}) = 2.69 {+-} 0.14 {+-} 0.23, {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{omega}) = 2.57 {+-} 0.11 {+-} 0.14, {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D*{sup 0}{omega}) = 4.55 {+-} 0.24 {+-} 0.39, {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{eta}') = 1.48 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.07, and {Beta}({bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D*{sup 0}{eta}') = 1.49 {+-} 0.22 {+-} 0.15. We also present the first measurement of the longitudinal polarization fraction of the decay channel D*{sup 0}{omega}, f{sub L} = (66.5 {+-} 4.7 {+-} 1.5)%. In the above, the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The results are based on a sample of (454 {+-} 5) x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs collected at the {Upsilon}(4S) resonance, with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II storage rings at SLAC. The measurements are the most precise determinations of these quantities from a single experiment. They are compared to theoretical predictions obtained by factorization, Soft Collinear Effective Theory (SCET) and perturbative QCD (pQCD). We find that the presence of final state interactions is favored and the measurements are in better agreement with SCET than with pQCD.

  4. Neutral pion and $\\eta$ meson production in p-Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}} = 5.02$ TeV

    CERN Document Server

    Acharya, Shreyasi; The ALICE collaboration; Adolfsson, Jonatan; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Al-turany, Mohammad; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Ali, Yasir; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altenkamper, Lucas; Altsybeev, Igor; Andrei, Cristian; Andreou, Dimitra; Andrews, Harry Arthur; Andronic, Anton; Angeletti, Massimo; Anguelov, Venelin; Anson, Christopher Daniel; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Apadula, Nicole; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Baldisseri, Alberto; Ball, Markus; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barioglio, Luca; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartsch, Esther; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Batigne, Guillaume; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bazo Alba, Jose Luis; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Espinoza Beltran, Lucina Gabriela; Belyaev, Vladimir; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhaduri, Partha Pratim; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Antonio; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Boca, Gianluigi; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Bonomi, Germano; Bonora, Matthias; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Bratrud, Lars; Braun-munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Broker, Theo Alexander; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buhler, Paul; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Caines, Helen Louise; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Soto Camacho, Rabi; Camerini, Paolo; Capon, Aaron Allan; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Chandra, Sinjini; Chang, Beomsu; Chang, Wan; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Chowdhury, Tasnuva; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Concas, Matteo; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Costanza, Susanna; Crkovska, Jana; Crochet, Philippe; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; 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Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hills, Christopher; Hippolyte, Boris; Hohlweger, Bernhard; Horak, David; Hornung, Sebastian; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Hughes, Charles; Huhn, Patrick; Humanic, Thomas; Hushnud, Hushnud; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Iddon, James Philip; Iga Buitron, Sergio Arturo; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Islam, Md Samsul; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacak, Barbara; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jaelani, Syaefudin; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jercic, Marko; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karczmarczyk, Przemyslaw; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Ketzer, Bernhard Franz; Khabanova, Zhanna; Khan, Shaista; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Khatun, Anisa; Khuntia, Arvind; Kielbowicz, Miroslaw Marek; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Byungchul; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Eun Joo; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Jiyoung; Kim, Minjung; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Varga-kofarago, Monika; Kohler, Markus Konrad; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Konyushikhin, Maxim; Kopcik, Michal; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Kreis, Lukas; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kruger, Mario; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kundu, Sourav; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kushpil, Svetlana; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron de Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lai, Yue Shi; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lapidus, Kirill; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Larionov, Pavel; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lavicka, Roman; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lehner, Sebastian; Lehrbach, Johannes; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Levai, Peter; Li, Xiaomei; Li, Xing Long; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lim, Bong-hwi; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lindsay, Scott William; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Litichevskyi, Vladyslav; Liu, Alwina; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Llope, William; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Loncar, Petra; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Luhder, Jens Robert; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lupi, Matteo; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Mao, Yaxian; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martinengo, Paolo; Lucio Martinez, Jose Antonio; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Massacrier, Laure Marie; Masson, Erwann; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Mathis, Andreas Michael; Toledo Matuoka, Paula Fernanda; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzilli, Marianna; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Mhlanga, Sibaliso; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mihaylov, Dimitar Lubomirov; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Mischke, Andre; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Auro Prasad; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munning, Konstantin; Arratia Munoz, Miguel Ignacio; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Myers, Corey James; Myrcha, Julian Wojciech; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Narayan, Amrendra; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Negrao De Oliveira, Renato Aparecido; Nellen, Lukas; Nesbo, Simon Voigt; Neskovic, Gvozden; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Nobuhiro, Akihide; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Hoonjung; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pacik, Vojtech; Pagano, Davide; Paic, Guy; Palni, Prabhakar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Panebianco, Stefano; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Jonghan; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Pathak, Surya Prakash; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Peng, Xinye; Pereira, Luis Gustavo; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Peretti Pezzi, Rafael; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Pisano, Silvia; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pliquett, Fabian; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Poppenborg, Hendrik; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Pozdniakov, Valeriy; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Rana, Dhan Bahadur; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Ratza, Viktor; Ravasenga, Ivan; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-lucian; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Roeed, Ketil; Rogalev, Roman; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Rokita, Przemyslaw Stefan; Ronchetti, Federico; Dominguez Rosas, Edgar; Roslon, Krystian; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Rotondi, Alberto; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Vazquez Rueda, Omar; Rui, Rinaldo; Rumyantsev, Boris; Rustamov, Anar; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Saha, Sumit Kumar; Sahoo, Baidyanath; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandoval, Andres; Sarkar, Amal; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Sas, Mike Henry Petrus; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schaefer, Brennan; Scheid, Horst Sebastian; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schmidt, Marten Ole; Schmidt, Martin; Schmidt, Nicolas Vincent; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sett, Priyanka; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shaikh, Wadut; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Anjali; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shimomura, Maya; Shirinkin, Sergey; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silaeva, Svetlana; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singhal, Vikas; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Sozzi, Federica; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Stocco, Diego; Storetvedt, Maksim Melnik; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Suzuki, Ken; Swain, Sagarika; Szabo, Alexander; Szarka, Imrich; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thakur, Sanchari; Thomas, Deepa; Thoresen, Freja; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Tikhonov, Anatoly; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Toppi, Marco; Rojas Torres, Solangel; Tripathy, Sushanta; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Tropp, Lukas; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Trzcinski, Tomasz Piotr; Trzeciak, Barbara Antonina; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Umaka, Ejiro Naomi; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vazquez Doce, Oton; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vermunt, Luuk; Vernet, Renaud; Vertesi, Robert; Vickovic, Linda; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Voscek, Dominik; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Wagner, Boris; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Wegrzynek, Adam; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wenzel, Sandro Christian; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Willems, Guido Alexander; Williams, Crispin; Willsher, Emily; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Witt, William Edward; Xu, Ran; Yalcin, Serpil; Yamakawa, Kosei; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yun, Eungyu; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correa Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zhu, Ya; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zmeskal, Johann; Zou, Shuguang

    2018-01-01

    Neutral pion and $\\eta$ meson invariant differential yields were measured in non-single diffractive p-Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}} = 5.02$ TeV with the ALICE experiment at the CERN LHC. The analysis combines results from three complementary photon measurements, utilizing the PHOS and EMCal calorimeters and the Photon Conversion Method. The invariant differential yields of $\\pi^0$ and $\\eta$ meson inclusive production are measured near mid-rapidity in a broad transverse momentum range of $0.34$ GeV/$c$ at $0.483\\pm0.015{\\rm {(stat.)}}\\pm 0.015 {\\rm{(syst.)}}$. A deviation from $m_{\\rm T}$ scaling is observed for $p_{\\rm T}<2$ GeV/$c$. The measured $\\eta/\\pi^0$ ratio is consistent with previous measurements from pA and pp collisions over the full $p_{\\rm T}$ range. The measured $\\eta/\\pi^0$ ratio at high $p_{\\rm T}$ also agrees within uncertainties with measurements from AA collisions. The $\\pi^0$ and $\\eta$ yields in p-Pb relative to the scaled pp interpolated reference, $R_{\\rm pPb}$, are present...

  5. International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

  6. 20 CFR 655.1055 - Notice to the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) and the Attorney General (AG).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Administration (ETA) and the Attorney General (AG). 655.1055 Section 655.1055 Employees' Benefits EMPLOYMENT AND... General (AG). (a) The Administrator shall notify the Attorney General and ETA of the final determination... Administrator's notice to the Attorney General shall, to the extent known from the investigation, specify the...

  7. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  8. Ventilation of ETA3-spaces in buildings. Part 1. Design and realization of a smoking area for the Faculty of Architecture in the Delft University of Technology; Ventilatie van ETA3-ruimten in gebouwen. Deel 1. Ontwerp en realisatie van een rookserre voor de faculteit Bouwkunde van de TU Delft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronsema, B. [Faculteit Bouwkinde, Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Marra, J. [Philips Research, Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2006-10-15

    The European standard prEN 13779 (CEN 2004) distinguishes four classes of interior spaces in buildings focusing on air quality. The classes are named ETA1 to ETA4. Class ETA3 concerns spaces with a high level of air pollution due to emissions of water vapour, industrial process emissions, chemical pollutants, etc., which substantially impair the air quality. The examples given include toilets, washrooms, kitchens, some chemical laboratories, print shops and specially designed smoking rooms. Hot restaurant kitchens and certain workshops may also be considered to belong to this class. Class ETA4 relates to spaces with an extremely high level of air pollution due to gaseous and other air pollutants which present health hazards. [Dutch] De Europese norm prEN 13779 (CEN 2004) onderscheidt voor verschillende ruimten in gebouwen vier klassen van afnemende luchtkwaliteit, ETA1 t/m ETA4. Klasse ETA3 staat voor ruimten met een hoge graad van luchtverontreiniging door emissie van vocht, processen, chemische verontreinigingen e.d., die de luchtkwaliteit substantieel verminderen. AIs voorbeelden worden genoemd toilet- en wasruimten, keukens, sommige chemische laboratoria, reproruimten, en speciaal ontworpen rookruimten. Ook warme restaurants en sommige werkplaatsen zouden tot deze klasse kunnen worden gerekend. Klasse ETA4 staat voor ruimten met een zeer hoge graad van luchlverontreiniging door geuren en verontreinigingen die schadelijk voor de gezondheid kunnen zijn.

  9. Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part II: minimum temperatures in winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

    2009-09-01

    Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of minimum temperatures during winter is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, winter minimum temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent cold-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict cold-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that low temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily minimum temperatures during winter over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the winter forecast period from 1 December 2007 - 31 March 2008. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated minimum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme cold episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia

  10. Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part I: maximum temperatures in summer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

    2009-09-01

    Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of summer maximum temperatures is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, summer maximum daily temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent heat-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict heat-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily maximum temperatures during summer over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the summer forecast period of 1 June - 30 September, 2007. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated maximum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme heat episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

  11. Eta Products and Theta Series Identities

    CERN Document Server

    Kohler, Gunter

    2011-01-01

    This monograph deals with products of Dedekind's eta function, with Hecke theta series on quadratic number fields, and with "Eisenstein series." The author brings to the public the large number of identities that have been discovered over the past 20 years, the majority of which have not been published elsewhere. This book will be of interest to graduate students and scholars in the field of number theory and, in particular, modular forms. It is not an introductory text in this field. Nevertheless, some theoretical background material is presented that is important for understanding

  12. Verificación de los pronosticos del modelo BRAMS centrado en la region subtropical de Sudamerica BRAMS forecast verification over a region of subtropical Southamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanina García Skabar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo del presente trabajo es realizar una verificación de los pronósticos generados en el Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos de la Universidad de Buenos Aires con el modelo Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(BRAMS. Utilizando dicho modelo, desde 2006, se realizan dos pronósticos al día por un plazo de 72 horas en dos retículas anidadas con una resolución horizontal de 80 y 20km. La retícula de mayor resolución abarca Paraguay, Uruguay, Sur de Brasil y Bolivia y el centro y norte de Argentina y Chile. En este trabajo se realiza la verificación sobre el dominio de mayor resolución para el período desde abril de 2006 a diciembre de 2008. El interés se centra en verificar los pronósticos de precipitación, y de los perfiles verticales de temperatura, humedad y viento en las localidades donde se dispone de datos de radiosondeos. La verificación de los pronósticos de precipitación se realiza mediante estadísticos calculados frente a las observaciones convencionales disponibles y frente a estimaciones de precipitación CMORPH. Los resultados son similares a los obtenidos en la región con modelos de aproximadamente la misma resolución. Además se identifican las deficiencias principales de los pronósticos lo que permitirá realizar ajustes en la configuración del mismo para mejorar su desempeño.The aim of this work is to verify the forecasts generated in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Ocean, University of Buenos Aires with the Brazilian model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS. Since year 2006, every day two different forecasts that extend for 72 hours have been performed using two nested grids with an horizontal resolution of 80 and 20 km. The higher resolution domain covers Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Bolivia and the central and northern part of Argentina and Chile. This paper presents the results of the verification of the model in the higher resolution

  13. 78 FR 32460 - Comment Request for Information Collection for ETA Form 232, Domestic Agricultural In-Season Wage...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-30

    ... Federal or State minimum wage, whichever is higher.'' The collection is also required by regulations for... legal federal or State minimum wage rate, whichever is highest unless special procedures apply to the... Collection for ETA Form 232, Domestic Agricultural In-Season Wage Report and ETA Form 232-A, Wage Survey...

  14. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  15. A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; Falconer, D. A.; Adams, J. H., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

  16. Verification of different forecasts of Hungarian Meteorological Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feher, B.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper I show the results of the forecasts made by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. I focus on the general short- and medium-range forecasts, which contains cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and temperature for six regions of Hungary. I would like to show the results of some special forecasts as well, such as precipitation predictions which are made for the catchment area of Danube and Tisza rivers, and daily mean temperature predictions used by Hungarian energy companies. The product received by the user is made by the general forecaster, but these predictions are based on the ALADIN and ECMWF outputs. Because of these, the product of the forecaster and the models were also verified. Method like this is able to show us, which weather elements are more difficult to forecast or which regions have higher errors. During the verification procedure the basic errors (mean error, mean absolute error) are calculated. Precipitation amount is classified into five categories, and scores like POD, TS, PC,…etc. were defined by contingency table determined by these categories. The procedure runs fully automatically, all the things forecasters have to do is to print the daily result each morning. Beside the daily result, verification is also made for longer periods like week, month or year. Analyzing the results of longer periods we can say that the best predictions are made for the first few days, and precipitation forecasts are less good for mountainous areas, even, the scores of the forecasters sometimes are higher than the errors of the models. Since forecaster receive results next day, it can helps him/her to reduce mistakes and learn the weakness of the models. This paper contains the verification scores, their trends, the method by which these scores are calculated, and some case studies on worse forecasts.

  17. The G-parity violating decays phi→ππ, phi→etaππ, and phi→πω

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karnakov, V.A.

    1985-01-01

    G-forbidden hadronic decays of the phi meson into the ππ, etaππ, and πω states are studied. Special attention is paid to the amplitude for the transition phi→rho, which plays an important role in these decays. The amplitude of the decay chain phi→ω→rho is analyzed in detail and its contribution to the interference parameter Z/sub π/ of the reaction e + e - →ππ is calculated. The relative probabilities B(phi→etaππ) = 0.35 x 10 -6 and B(phi→πω) = 0.82 x 10 -4 and the interference curves in the reactions e + e - →etaππ and e + e - →πω are calculated. The angular distributions are given

  18. On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Revilla-Romero

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response decisions. Global-scale flood forecasting and satellite-based flood detection systems are currently operating, however their reliability for decision-making applications needs to be assessed. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of several operational global flood forecasting and flood detection systems, using 10 major flood events recorded over 2012–2014. Specifically, we evaluated the spatial extent and temporal characteristics of flood detections from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS. Furthermore, we compared the GFDS flood maps with those from NASA’s two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors. Results reveal that: (1 general agreement was found between the GFDS and MODIS flood detection systems, (2 large differences exist in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GFDS detections and GloFAS forecasts, and (3 the quantitative validation of global flood disasters in data-sparse regions is highly challenging. Overall, satellite remote sensing provides useful near real-time flood information that can be useful for risk management. We highlight the known limitations of global flood detection and forecasting systems, and propose ways forward to improve the reliability of large-scale flood monitoring tools.

  19. A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zechar, J. Douglas; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2014-10-01

    Using analogies to gaming, we consider the problem of comparing multiple probabilistic seismicity forecasts. To measure relative model performance, we suggest a parimutuel gambling perspective which addresses shortcomings of other methods such as likelihood ratio, information gain and Molchan diagrams. We describe two variants of the parimutuel approach for a set of forecasts: head-to-head, in which forecasts are compared in pairs, and round table, in which all forecasts are compared simultaneously. For illustration, we compare the 5-yr forecasts of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment for M4.95+ seismicity in California.

  20. Composition of eta carbide in Hastelloy N after aging 10,000 hr at 8150C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitnaker, J.M.; Potter, G.A.; Bradley, D.J.; Franklin, J.C.; Laing, W.R.

    1977-11-01

    The composition of the eta carbide in Hastelloy N containing 0.7 wt percent Si in the alloy approaches M 12 C, rather than M 6 C as indicated in the alloy literature. The silicon content of the eta phase in this case was about 25 at. percent, much higher than has been observed in less highly alloyed material. The data do not permit a definition of the limiting compositions of the phases

  1. Mapping Distribution and Forecasting Invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia's Afar Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, A. M.; Wakie, T.; Luizza, M.; Evangelista, P.

    2014-12-01

    Invasion of non-native species is among the most critical threats to natural ecosystems and economies world-wide. Mesquite (which includes some 45 species) is an invasive deciduous tree which is known to have an array of negative impacts on ecosystems and rural livelihoods in arid and semi-arid regions around the world, dominating millions of hectares of land in Asia, Africa, Australia and the Americas. In Ethiopia, Prosopis juliflora (the only reported mesquite) is the most pervasive plant invader, threatening local livelihoods and the country's unique biodiversity. Due to its rapid spread and persistence, P. juliflora has been ranked as one of the leading threats to traditional land use, exceeded only by drought and conflict. This project utilized NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) data and species distribution modeling to map current infestations of P. juliflora in the Afar region of northeastern Ethiopia, and forecast its suitable habitat across the entire country. This project provided a time and cost-effective strategy for conducting risk assessments of invasive mesquite and subsequent monitoring and mitigation efforts by land managers and local communities.

  2. Preliminary results for the helicity asymmetry E for eta photoproduction on the proton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Polarization observables are an important tool for clarifying the nucleon resonance spectrum. No previous measurements for double polarization asymmetries have been published for eta photoproduction. Double polarization measurements have been made at Jefferson Lab using a polarized photon beam and protons in a polarized frozen spin target (FROST). Data were taken during the first running period of FROST using the CLAS detector with photon energies from 0.33 to 2.35 GeV. Preliminary results for the E polarization observable for eta meson photoproduction from the proton at threshold and above, along with comparisons to several theoretical predictions are presented.

  3. Perturbations of modeling and forecast of karachi coastal region seawater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, S.; Ansari, M.R.K.; Zaffar, A.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. (author)

  4. Search for Exclusive B Decays to J and $\\eta$ or $\\pi^{0}$ with the L3 Detector

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M; Aguilar-Benítez, M; Ahlen, S P; Alpat, B; Alcaraz, J; Alemanni, G; Allaby, James V; Aloisio, A; Alverson, G; Alviggi, M G; Ambrosi, G; Anderhub, H; Andreev, V P; Angelescu, T; Anselmo, F; Antreasyan, D; Arefev, A; Azemoon, T; Aziz, T; Bagnaia, P; Baksay, L; Ball, R C; Banerjee, S; Banicz, K; Barillère, R; Barone, L; Bartalini, P; Baschirotto, A; Basile, M; Battiston, R; Bay, A; Becattini, F; Becker, U; Behner, F; Berdugo, J; Berges, P; Bertucci, B; Betev, B L; Bhattacharya, S; Biasini, M; Biland, A; Bilei, G M; Blaising, J J; Blyth, S C; Bobbink, Gerjan J; Böck, R K; Böhm, A; Borgia, B; Boucham, A; Bourilkov, D; Bourquin, Maurice; Boutigny, D; Branson, J G; Brigljevic, V; Brock, I C; Buffini, A; Buijs, A; Burger, J D; Burger, W J; Busenitz, J K; Buytenhuijs, A O; Cai, X D; Campanelli, M; Capell, M; Cara Romeo, G; Caria, M; Carlino, G; Cartacci, A M; Casaus, J; Castellini, G; Cavallari, F; Cavallo, N; Cecchi, C; Cerrada-Canales, M; Cesaroni, F; Chamizo-Llatas, M; Chan, A; Chang, Y H; Chaturvedi, U K; Chemarin, M; Chen, A; Chen, G; Chen, G M; Chen, H F; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Chiefari, G; Chien, C Y; Choi, M T; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, F; Civinini, C; Clare, I; Clare, R; Cohn, H O; Coignet, G; Colijn, A P; Colino, N; Commichau, V; Costantini, S; Cotorobai, F; de la Cruz, B; Csilling, Akos; Dai, T S; D'Alessandro, R; De Asmundis, R; De Boeck, H; Degré, A; Deiters, K; Denes, P; De Notaristefani, F; DiBitonto, Daryl; Diemoz, M; Van Dierendonck, D N; Di Lodovico, F; Dionisi, C; Dittmar, Michael; Dominguez, A; Doria, A; Dorne, I; Dova, M T; Drago, E; Duchesneau, D; Duinker, P; Durán, I; Dutta, S; Easo, S; Efremenko, Yu V; El-Mamouni, H; Engler, A; Eppling, F J; Erné, F C; Ernenwein, J P; Extermann, Pierre; Fabre, M; Faccini, R; Falciano, S; Favara, A; Fay, J; Fedin, O; Felcini, Marta; Fenyi, B; Ferguson, T; Fernández, D; Ferroni, F; Fesefeldt, H S; Fiandrini, E; Field, J H; Filthaut, Frank; Fisher, P H; Forconi, G; Fredj, L; Freudenreich, Klaus; Furetta, C; Galaktionov, Yu; Ganguli, S N; García-Abia, P; Gau, S S; Gentile, S; Gerald, J; Gheordanescu, N; Giagu, S; Goldfarb, S; Goldstein, J; Gong, Z F; Gougas, Andreas; Gratta, Giorgio; Grünewald, M W; Gupta, V K; Gurtu, A; Gutay, L J; Hartmann, B; Hasan, A; Hatzifotiadou, D; Hebbeker, T; Hervé, A; Van Hoek, W C; Hofer, H; Hoorani, H; Hou, S R; Hu, G; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janssen, H; Jenkes, K; Jin, B N; Jones, L W; de Jong, P; Josa-Mutuberria, I; Kasser, A; Khan, R A; Kamrad, D; Kamyshkov, Yu A; Kapustinsky, J S; Karyotakis, Yu; Kaur, M; Kienzle-Focacci, M N; Kim, D; Kim, J K; Kim, S C; Kim, Y G; Kinnison, W W; Kirkby, A; Kirkby, D; Kirkby, Jasper; Kiss, D; Kittel, E W; Klimentov, A; König, A C; Korolko, I; Koutsenko, V F; Krämer, R W; Krenz, W; Kuijten, H; Kunin, A; Ladrón de Guevara, P; Landi, G; Lapoint, C; Lassila-Perini, K M; Laurikainen, P; Lebeau, M; Lebedev, A; Lebrun, P; Lecomte, P; Lecoq, P; Le Coultre, P; Lee Jae Sik; Lee, K Y; Leggett, C; Le Goff, J M; Leiste, R; Leonardi, E; Levchenko, P M; Li Chuan; Lieb, E H; Lin, W T; Linde, Frank L; Lista, L; Liu, Z A; Lohmann, W; Longo, E; Lu, W; Lü, Y S; Lübelsmeyer, K; Luci, C; Luckey, D; Luminari, L; Lustermann, W; Ma Wen Gan; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Malgeri, L; Malinin, A; Maña, C; Mangla, S; Marchesini, P A; Marin, A; Martin, J P; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McNally, D; Mele, S; Merola, L; Meschini, M; Metzger, W J; Von der Mey, M; Mi, Y; Mihul, A; Van Mil, A J W; Mirabelli, G; Mnich, J; Molnár, P; Monteleoni, B; Moore, R; Morganti, S; Moulik, T; Mount, R; Müller, S; Muheim, F; Nagy, E; Nahn, S; Napolitano, M; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Newman, H; Nippe, A; Nisati, A; Nowak, H; Opitz, H; Organtini, G; Ostonen, R; Pandoulas, D; Paoletti, S; Paolucci, P; Park, H K; Pascale, G; Passaleva, G; Patricelli, S; Paul, T; Pauluzzi, M; Paus, C; Pauss, Felicitas; Peach, D; Pei, Y J; Pensotti, S; Perret-Gallix, D; Petrak, S; Pevsner, A; Piccolo, D; Pieri, M; Pinto, J C; Piroué, P A; Pistolesi, E; Plyaskin, V; Pohl, M; Pozhidaev, V; Postema, H; Produit, N; Prokofev, D; Prokofiev, D O; Rahal-Callot, G; Rancoita, P G; Rattaggi, M; Raven, G; Razis, P A; Read, K; Ren, D; Rescigno, M; Reucroft, S; Van Rhee, T; Riemann, S; Riemers, B C; Riles, K; Rind, O; Ro, S; Robohm, A; Rodin, J; Rodríguez-Calonge, F J; Roe, B P; Romero, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rosselet, P; Van Rossum, W; Roth, S; Rubio, Juan Antonio; Rykaczewski, H; Salicio, J; Sánchez, E; Santocchia, A; Sarakinos, M E; Sarkar, S; Sassowsky, M; Sauvage, G; Schäfer, C; Shchegelskii, V; Schmidt-Kärst, S; Schmitz, D; Schmitz, P; Schneegans, M; Schöneich, B; Scholz, N; Schopper, Herwig Franz; Schotanus, D J; Schwenke, J; Schwering, G; Sciacca, C; Sciarrino, D; Sens, Johannes C; Servoli, L; Shevchenko, S; Shivarov, N; Shoutko, V; Shukla, J; Shumilov, E; Shvorob, A V; Siedenburg, T; Son, D; Sopczak, André; Soulimov, V; Smith, B; Spillantini, P; Steuer, M; Stickland, D P; Stone, H; Stoyanov, B; Strässner, A; Strauch, K; Sudhakar, K; Sultanov, G G; Sun, L Z; Susinno, G F; Suter, H; Swain, J D; Tang, X W; Tauscher, Ludwig; Taylor, L; Ting, Samuel C C; Ting, S M; Tonutti, M; Tonwar, S C; Tóth, J; Tully, C; Tuchscherer, H; Tung, K L; Uchida, Y; Ulbricht, J; Uwer, U; Valente, E; Van de Walle, R T; Vesztergombi, G; Vetlitskii, I; Viertel, Gert M; Vivargent, M; Völkert, R; Vogel, H; Vogt, H; Vorobev, I; Vorobyov, A A; Vorvolakos, A; Wadhwa, M; Wallraff, W; Wang, J C; Wang, X L; Wang, Z M; Weber, A; Wittgenstein, F; Wu, S X; Wynhoff, S; Xu, J; Xu, Z Z; Yang, B Z; Yang, C G; Yao, X Y; Ye, J B; Yeh, S C; You, J M; Zalite, A; Zalite, Yu; Zemp, P; Zeng, Y; Zhang, Z; Zhang, Z P; Zhou, B; Zhou, Y; Zhu, G Y; Zhu, R Y; Zichichi, Antonino; Ziegler, F

    1997-01-01

    A search for exclusive decays of $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_d^0}}$ and $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_s^0}}$ mesons has been performed in the channels $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_d^0}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{J}\\eta}$,\\,\\, $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_s^0}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{J}\\eta}$,\\,\\, $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_d^0}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{J}\\pi^0}$ and $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_s^0}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{J}\\pi^0}$. The data sample consisted of more than three and half million hadronic $\\ensuremath{\\mathrm {Z}}$ decays collected by the L3 experiment at LEP from 1991 through 1995. No candidate events have been observed for any of the modes thus determining upper limits at 90\\% confidence level: $3.2\\times 10^{-4}$ on $\\mathrm{Br}(\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_d^0}\\ rightarrow\\mathrm{J}\\pi^0)}$ and the first experimental limits: \\begin{eqnarray*} \\mathrm{Br}(\\ensuremath{\\mathrm{B_d^0}\\rightarrow \\mathrm{J}\\eta}) & < & 1.2\\times 10^{-3},\\\\ \\mathrm{Br}(\\ensuremath{\\m athrm{B_s^0}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{J}\\eta}) & < & 3.8\\times 10^{-3},\\\\ \\mathrm{B...

  5. Reservoir inflow forecasting with a modified coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system: a case study for a semi-arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allawi, Mohammed Falah; Jaafar, Othman; Mohamad Hamzah, Firdaus; Mohd, Nuruol Syuhadaa; Deo, Ravinesh C.; El-Shafie, Ahmed

    2017-10-01

    Existing forecast models applied for reservoir inflow forecasting encounter several drawbacks, due to the difficulty of the underlying mathematical procedures being to cope with and to mimic the naturalization and stochasticity of the inflow data patterns. In this study, appropriate adjustments to the conventional coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) method are proposed to improve the mathematical procedure, thus enabling a better detection of the high nonlinearity patterns found in the reservoir inflow training data. This modification includes the updating of the back propagation algorithm, leading to a consequent update of the membership rules and the induction of the centre-weighted set rather than the global weighted set used in feature extraction. The modification also aids in constructing an integrated model that is able to not only detect the nonlinearity in the training data but also the wide range of features within the training data records used to simulate the forecasting model. To demonstrate the model's efficacy, the proposed CANFIS method has been applied to forecast monthly inflow data at Aswan High Dam (AHD), located in southern Egypt. Comparative analyses of the forecasting skill of the modified CANFIS and the conventional ANFIS model are carried out with statistical score indicators to assess the reliability of the developed method. The statistical metrics support the better performance of the developed CANFIS model, which significantly outperforms the ANFIS model to attain a low relative error value (23%), mean absolute error (1.4 BCM month-1), root mean square error (1.14 BCM month-1), and a relative large coefficient of determination (0.94). The present study ascertains the better utility of the modified CANFIS model in respect to the traditional ANFIS model applied in reservoir inflow forecasting for a semi-arid region.

  6. The GOCF/AWAP system - forecasting temperature extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fawcett, Robert; Hume, Timothy

    2010-01-01

    Gridded hourly temperature forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasting (GOCF) system are combined in real time with the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded daily temperature analyses to produce gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts with lead times from one to five days. These forecasts are compared against the historical record of AWAP daily temperature analyses (1911 to present), to identify regions where record or near-record temperatures are predicted to occur. This paper describes the GOCF/AWAP system, showing how the daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts are prepared from the hourly forecasts, and how they are bias-corrected in real time using the AWAP analyses, against which they are subsequently verified. Using monthly climatologies of long-term daily mean, standard deviation and all-time highest and lowest on record, derived forecast products (for both maximum and minimum temperature) include ordinary and standardised anomalies, 'forecast - highest on record' and 'forecast - lowest on record'. Compensation for the climatological variation across the country is achieved in these last two products, which provide the necessary guidance as to whether or not record-breaking temperatures are expected, by expressing the forecast departure from the previous record in both 0 C and standard deviations.

  7. Semi-Automatic Operational Service for Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the Tuscany Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona Magno

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A drought-monitoring and forecasting system developed for the Tuscany region was improved in order to provide a semi-automatic, more detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service for decision making, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders. Ground-based and satellite data from different sources (regional meteorological stations network, MODIS Terra satellite and CHIRPS/CRU precipitation datasets are integrated through an open-source, interoperable SDI (spatial data infrastructure based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices that allow following of the occurrence and evolution of a drought event. The SDI allows the dissemination of comprehensive, up-to-date and customizable information suitable for different end-users through different channels, from a web page and monthly bulletins, to interoperable web services, and a comprehensive climate service. The web services allow geospatial elaborations on the fly, and the geo-database can be increased with new input/output data to respond to specific requests or to increase the spatial resolution.

  8. Actinide tris(hydrocarbyls). Synthesis, properties, structure, and molecular dynamics of thorium and uranium pentamethylcyclopentadienyl tris(eta/sup n/-benzyls)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mintz, E.A.; Moloy, K.G.; Marks, T.J.; Day, V.W.

    1982-01-01

    This report focuses on the synthesis, unusual molecular structure(s), and other interesting properties of ligands within a metal coordination sphere (cf. M(eta 5 -C 5 H 5 ) 3 R vs. M[eta 5 -(CH 3 ) 5 ] 2 R 2 chemistry, where M=Th or U). This report represents a continuing effort to ''tune'' the actinide ligation environment with respect to such factors as the chemical characteristics of actinide-to-carbon sigma bonds. These bonds are a sensitive function of the number and nature of the other ligands within the metal coordination sphere. Structural analysis is reported that examines the nature and arrangement of the bonds in Th[eta 5 -(CH 3 ) 5 C 5 ](CH 2 C 6 H 5 ) 3 and U[eta 5 -(CH 3 ) 5 C 5 ](CH 2 C 6 H 5 ) 3 complexes

  9. Recent developments in the applications of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for emergency response planning and operational forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyons, W.A.; Tremback, C.J.

    1996-01-01

    The authors will summarize ten years of developing and applying the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to emergency response and operational dispersion forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). RAMS forms the core of two workstation-based operational systems, ERDAS (the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System) and PROWESS (Parallelized RAMS Operational Weather Simulation System) which are undergoing extensive operational testing prior to potential deployment as part of the range forecasting system at KSC. RAMS has been interfaced with HYPACT (the Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport Model) to produce detailed 3-D dispersion forecasts from a variety of sources including cold spills, routine launch operations, and explosive conflagrations of launch vehicles

  10. Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

    2018-04-01

    This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

  11. First Observation of {tau}{r_arrow}3{pi}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}} and {tau}{r_arrow} {ital f}{sub 1}{pi}{nu}{sub {tau}} Decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergfeld, T.; Eisenstein, B.I.; Ernst, J.; Gladding, G.E.; Gollin, G.D.; Hans, R.M.; Johnson, E.; Karliner, I.; Marsh, M.A.; Palmer, M.; Selen, M.; Thaler, J.J. [University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States); Edwards, K.W.; Edwards, K.W. [the Institute of Particle Physics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Bellerive, A.; Bellerive, A.; Janicek, R.; Janicek, R.; MacFarlane, D.B.; MacFarlane, D.B.; Patel, P.M.; Patel, P.M. [the Institute of Particle Physics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Sadoff, A.J. [Ithaca College, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States); Ammar, R.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Besson, D.; Coppage, D.; Darling, C.; Davis, R.; Hancock, N.; Kotov, S.; Kravchenko, I.; Kwak, N. [University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045 (United States); Anderson, S.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, S.J.; ONeill, J.J.; Patton, S.; Poling, R.; Riehle, T.; Savinov, V.; Smith, A. [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 (United States); Alam, M.S.; Athar, S.B.; Ling, Z.; Mahmood, A.H.; Severini, H.; Timm, S.; Wappler, F. [State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York 12222 (United States); Anastassov, A.; Blinov, S.; Duboscq, J.E.; Fujino, D.; Gan, K.K.; Hart, T.; Honscheid, K.; Kagan, H.; Kass, R.; Lee, J.; Spencer, M.B.; Sung, M.; Undrus, A.; Wanke, R.; Wolf, A.; Zoeller, M.M. [The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States); Nemati, B.; Richichi, S.J.; Ross, W.R.; Skubic, P. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Bishai, M.; Fast, J.; Gerndt, E.; Hinson, J.W.; Menon, N.; Miller, D.H.; Shibata, E.I.; Shipsey, I.P.; Yurko, M. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Gibbons, L.; Glenn, S.; Johnson, S.D.; Kwon, Y.; Roberts, S.; Thorndike, E.H. [University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627 (United States); Jessop, C.P.; Lingel, K.; Marsiske, H.; Perl, M.L.; Ugolini, D.; Wang, R.; Zhou, X.; and others

    1997-09-01

    We have observed new channels for {tau} decays with an {eta} in the final state. We study 3-prong tau decays, using the {eta}{r_arrow}{gamma}{gamma} and {eta}{r_arrow}3{pi}{sup 0} decay modes and 1-prong decays with two {pi}{sup 0} {close_quote}s using the {eta}{r_arrow}{gamma}{gamma} channel. The measured branching fractions are B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}{pi}{sup {minus}} {pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup +}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}})=(3.4{sup +0.6}{sub {minus}0.5} {plus_minus}0.6){times}10{sup {minus}4} and B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}{pi}{sup {minus}} 2{pi}{sup 0}{eta}{nu}{sub {tau}}) =(1.4{plus_minus}0.6{plus_minus}0.3){times}10{sup {minus}4} . We observe clear evidence for f{sub 1}{r_arrow}{eta}{pi}{pi} substructure and measure B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}f{sub 1}{pi}{sup {minus}}{nu}{sub {tau}})=(5.8{sup +1.4 }{sub {minus}1.3}{plus_minus}1.8){times}10{sup {minus}4} . We have also searched for {eta}{sup {prime}}(958) production and obtain 90{percent} C.L.upper limits B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}{pi}{sup {minus}} {eta}{sup {prime}}{nu}{sub {tau}}){lt} 7.4{times}10{sup {minus}5} and B({tau}{sup {minus}}{r_arrow}{pi}{sup {minus}} {pi}{sup 0}{eta}{sup {prime}}{nu}{sub {tau} }){lt}8.0{times}10{sup {minus}5} . {copyright} {ital 1997} {ital The American Physical Society}

  12. X-ray crystal and molecular structure of (eta/sup 5/C/sub 5/H/sub 5/)UCl/sub 3/. 2PPh/sub 3/O thf: trichloro (eta/sup 5/cyclopentadienyl)bis(triphenylphosphine oxide) uranium(IV). thf

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bombieri, G; De Paoli, G [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Padua (Italy). Lab. di Chimica e Tecnologia dei Radioelementi; Del Pra, A; Bagnall, K W

    1978-01-01

    Following reports of the preparation of (eta/sup 5/C/sub 5/H/sub 5/)UCl/sub 3/.xL (x = 1, L = dimethoxyethane and x = 2, L = tetrahydrofuran (thf), a series of analogous oxygen-donor complexes were isolated. This paper describes the crystal and molecular structure of one of them, ((eta/sup 5/C/sub 5/H/sub 5/)UCl/sub 3/.2PPh/sub 3/O)thf.

  13. Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao; Ghosh, Sajal

    2012-01-01

    The nature of electricity differs from that of other commodities since electricity is a non-storable good and there have been significant seasonal and diurnal variations of demand. Under such condition, precise forecasting of demand for electricity should be an integral part of the planning process as this enables the policy makers to provide directions on cost-effective investment and on scheduling the operation of the existing and new power plants so that the supply of electricity can be made adequate enough to meet the future demand and its variations. Official load forecasting in India done by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is often criticized for being overestimated due to inferior techniques used for forecasting. This paper tries to evaluate monthly peak demand forecasting performance predicted by CEA using trend method and compare it with those predicted by Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model. It has been found that MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts both in-sample static and out-of-sample dynamic forecast horizons in all five regional grids in India. For better load management and grid discipline, this study suggests employing sophisticated techniques like MSARIMA for peak load forecasting in India. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates monthly peak demand forecasting performance by CEA. ► Compares CEA forecasts it with those predicted by MSARIMA model. ► MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts in all five regional grids in India. ► Opportunity exists to improve the performance of CEA forecasts.

  14. Investigation of the Dalitz decays and the electromagnetic form factors of the {eta} and {pi}{sup 0}-meson

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berghaeuser, Henning

    2010-08-20

    In this thesis the Dalitz decays of the {pi}{sup 0}, {eta} and {omega}-meson have been studied in photon induced reactions off the proton: {gamma}+p {yields} {pi}{sup 0}+p{yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}{gamma}+p, {gamma}+p {yields} {eta}+p{yields}e{sup +}e{sup -}{gamma}+p, and {gamma}+p {yields} {omega}+p{yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}+p. The main aim has been to determine the electromagnetic transition form factor of the {eta}-meson. Beside the Dalitz decays other decay modes of the {eta} and the {omega}-meson were analyzed and the branching ratios of the decays {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}, {eta}{yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}{gamma} and {omega} {yields} {gamma}{sup +}{pi}{sup 0} were determined. Furthermore the cross section of {eta}-production as well as the cross section of {pi}{sup 0}-{eta}-production in photon induced reactions off the proton were determined. Another aspect of this work was to investigate the possibility of separating electrons and positrons from charged pions with the Crystal Ball and TAPS detector systems at MAMI-C in Mainz. It was shown in this work, that an accurate separation and identification of those particles is possible by exploiting the full kinematic information available in exclusive analyses. Thereby Dalitz decays were identified. The background from charged pions was suppressed further. The probability for the misidentification of a {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -} pair as an e{sup +}e{sup -}-pair is less than 3.10{sup -7}. A new analysis program called AR{sub HB}2v3 was developed in C++. In all analyses the detection of the meson and the recoiling proton was required; thus the full kinematic information could be exploited. Cuts were applied on the energy balance, momentum balance, missing mass and the coplanarity. Depending on the particular decay channel further cuts were applied on the relative angle between particles, the incident energy, the {theta}-angle of the proton and if applicable on the cluster sizes of the

  15. Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre

  16. A global flash flood forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

  17. Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbi, Abdelhak; Nanjo, Kazuyoshi; Zhuang, Jiancang; Satake, Kenji; Hamdache, Mohamed

    2013-09-01

    This study introduces a new earthquake forecasting model that uses the moment ratio (MR) of the first to second order moments of earthquake interevent times as a precursory alarm index to forecast large earthquake events. This MR model is based on the idea that the MR is associated with anomalous long-term changes in background seismicity prior to large earthquake events. In a given region, the MR statistic is defined as the inverse of the index of dispersion or Fano factor, with MR values (or scores) providing a biased estimate of the relative regional frequency of background events, here termed the background fraction. To test the forecasting performance of this proposed MR model, a composite Japan-wide earthquake catalogue for the years between 679 and 2012 was compiled using the Japan Meteorological Agency catalogue for the period between 1923 and 2012, and the Utsu historical seismicity records between 679 and 1922. MR values were estimated by sampling interevent times from events with magnitude M ≥ 6 using an earthquake random sampling (ERS) algorithm developed during previous research. Three retrospective tests of M ≥ 7 target earthquakes were undertaken to evaluate the long-, intermediate- and short-term performance of MR forecasting, using mainly Molchan diagrams and optimal spatial maps obtained by minimizing forecasting error defined by miss and alarm rate addition. This testing indicates that the MR forecasting technique performs well at long-, intermediate- and short-term. The MR maps produced during long-term testing indicate significant alarm levels before 15 of the 18 shallow earthquakes within the testing region during the past two decades, with an alarm region covering about 20 per cent (alarm rate) of the testing region. The number of shallow events missed by forecasting was reduced by about 60 per cent after using the MR method instead of the relative intensity (RI) forecasting method. At short term, our model succeeded in forecasting the

  18. A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    Probabilistic ensemble forecasts generated by the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methodology are subject to biases due to errors in the hydrological model's initial states. In day-to-day operations, hydrologists must compensate for discrepancies between observed and simulated states such as streamflow. However, in data-scarce regions, little to no information is available to guide the streamflow assimilation process. The manual assimilation process can then lead to more uncertainty due to the numerous options available to the forecaster. Furthermore, the model's mass balance may be compromised and could affect future forecasts. In this study we propose a data-driven approach in which specific variables that may be adjusted during assimilation are defined. The underlying principle was to identify key variables that would be the most appropriate to modify during streamflow assimilation depending on the initial conditions such as the time period of the assimilation, the snow water equivalent of the snowpack and meteorological conditions. The variables to adjust were determined by performing an automatic variational data assimilation on individual (or combinations of) model state variables and meteorological forcing. The assimilation aimed to simultaneously optimize: (1) the error between the observed and simulated streamflow at the timepoint where the forecasts starts and (2) the bias between medium to long-term observed and simulated flows, which were simulated by running the model with the observed meteorological data on a hindcast period. The optimal variables were then classified according to the initial conditions at the time period where the forecast is initiated. The proposed method was evaluated by measuring the average electricity generation of a hydropower complex in Québec, Canada driven by this method. A test-bed which simulates the real-world assimilation, forecasting, water release optimization and decision-making of a hydropower cascade was

  19. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lü

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods: from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND, with lag periods between one and twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River.

  20. Computational studies of beam dynamics in the ETA gun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, A.C.; Neil, V.K.

    1979-03-01

    A new general purpose computer code call EBQ, has been written to simulate the beam dynamics of the ETA, find its beam emittance and evaluate effects of changes in the electrode positions and external magnetic fields. The original calculations of the ETA were made with EGUN and yielded considerable insight into the operation of the device in the non-relativistic regime. The EBQ code was written specifically to attend to the special problems associated with high current relativistic beam propagation in axially symmetric machines possessing external 2-dimensional electric and magnetic fields. The coherent electric and magnetic self-fields of the beam must be calculated accurately. Special care has been used in the relativistic regime where a high degree of cancellation occurs between the self-magnetic and self electric forces of the beam. Additionally, EBQ can handle equally well non-relativistic problems involving multiple ion species where the space charge from each must be included in its mutual effect on the others. Such problems arise in the design of ion sources where different charge and mass states are present

  1. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  2. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NARR dataset is an extension of the NCEP Global Reanalysis which is run over the North American Region. The NARR model uses the very high resolution NCEP Eta...

  3. MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events. MAG4 does not forecast that a flare will occur at a particular time in the next 24 or 48 hours; rather the probability of one occurring.

  4. Photoproduction of eta-mesons off nuclei for E(gamma)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, T.; Jaegle, I.; Muehlich, P.; Bacelar, J. C. S.; Bantes, B.; Bartholomy, O.; Bayadilov, D. E.; Beck, R.; Beloglazov, Y. A.; Castelijns, R.; Crede, V.; Dutz, H.; Ehmanns, A.; Elsner, D.; Essig, K.; Ewald, R.; Fabry, I.; Fornet-Ponse, K.; Fuchs, M.; Funke, C.; Gothe, R.; Gregor, R.; Gridnev, A. B.; Gutz, E.; Hoeffgen, S.; Hoffmeister, P.; Horn, I.; Junkersfeld, J.; Kalinowsky, H.; Kammer, S.; Kleber, V.; Klein, Frank; Klein, Friedrich; Klempt, E.; Konrad, M.; Kotulla, M.; Krusche, B.; Lang, M.; Langheinrich, J.; Loehner, H.; Lopatin, I. V.; Lotz, J.; Lugert, S.; Menze, D.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Metag, V.; Morales, C.; Mosel, U.; Nanova, M.; Novinski, D. V.; Novotny, R.; Ostrick, M.; Pant, L. M.; van Pee, H.; Pfeiffer, M.; Radkov, A. K.; Roy, A.; Schadmand, S.; Schmidt, C.; Schmieden, H.; Schoch, B.; Shende, S. V.; Sokhoyan, V.; Suele, A.; Sumachev, V. V.; Szczepanek, T.; Thoma, U.; Trnka, D.; Varma, R.; Walther, D.; Weinheimer, C.; Wendel, C.

    2008-01-01

    The photoproduction of eta-mesons off (12)C, (40)Ca, (93)Nb, and (nat)Pb nuclei has been measured with a tagged photon beam with energies between 0.6 and 2.2 GeV. The experiment was performed at the Bonn ELSA accelerator with the combined setup of the Crystal Barrel and TAPS calorimeters. It aimed

  5. Search for eta '(c) decays into vector meson pairs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Alberto, D.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Baldini, R.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A. C.; Cao, G. F.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kuehn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, S. L.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Y. W.; Liu, Yong; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X.; Ma, X. Y.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Park, J. W.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xu, Z. Z.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, S. P.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. S.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, Jiawei; Zhao, Jingwei; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhao, Z. L.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhong, L.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

    2011-01-01

    The processes eta'(c) -> rho(0)rho(0), K*0K*0, and phi phi are searched for using a sample of 1.06 x 10(8) psi' events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. No signals are observed in any of the three final states. The upper limits on the decay branching fractions are determined

  6. Methodological Aspects in Forecasting Innovation Development of Dairy Cattle Breeding in the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natal’ya Aleksandrovna Medvedeva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to the fact that Russia is now a member of the World Trade Organization, long-term forecasting becomes an objectively necessary condition that helps choose an effective science-based long-term strategy for development of dairy cattle breeding that would take into consideration intellectual and innovative characteristics. Current structure of available statistical information does not meet modern challenges of innovation development and does not reflect adequately the trends of ongoing changes. The paper suggests a system of indicators to analyze the status, development and prospects of dairy cattle breeding in the region; this system provides timely identification of emerging risks and threats of deviation from the specified parameters. The system included indicators contained in the current statistical reporting and new indicators of innovation development of the industry, the quality of human capital and the level of government support. When designing the system of indicators, we used several methodological aspects of the Oslo Manual, which the Federal State Statistics Service considers to be an official methodological document concerning the collection of information about innovation activities. A structured system of indicators shifts the emphasis in the analysis of the final results to the conditions and prerequisites that help achieve forecast performance indicators in the functioning of Russia’s economy under WTO rules and make substantiated management decisions

  7. DML and Foil Measurements of ETA Beam Radius

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nexsen, W; Weir, J

    2005-01-01

    Simultaneous measurements of the ETA beam radius have been made with a quartz foil and a diamagnetic loop (DML). While the measurements agreed at some settings they diverged at others. While the DML measures the rms radius of the total beam, the foil measures mainly the core and the divergence can be explained by the presence of a low density halo. Evidence of such a halo from other measurements is presented

  8. Electromagnetic production of strangeness and {eta} mesons on simple hadronic systems; Production electromagnetique d`etrangete et de mesons {eta} sur les systemes hadroniques simples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fayard, C.; Lamot, G.H.; Rouvier, F. [Inst. de Physique Nucleaire, Lyon-1 Univ., 69 - Villeurbanne (France); Kerbicov, B. [Inst. Teoreticheskoj i Eksperimental`noj Fiziki, Moscow (Russian Federation); Collaboration: VPI/USA, DAPNIA

    1998-12-31

    We investigate the photo- and electro-production of strangeness of the proton and deuteron, based upon effective hadronic Lagrangians. The so called off-shell effects inherent to the fermions with spin {>=}3/2 is carefully studied. This formalism is now extended to the reaction {gamma}p {yields} {eta}p. (authors)

  9. Macroeconomic Forecast in Regional Strategies: The Example of Khabarovsk Territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the methodological and instrumental problems of forecasting medium-term dynamics of a region’s socio-economic development as part of constructing the region’s socio-economic development strategy. The authors present results of constructing the system of models of different classes integrated in a single model complex. The model complex is based on the synthesis of methods of intersectoral analysis and dynamic optimization and consists of four The article was supported by the FEB RAS Program of Fundamental Research ‘Far East’ (Subprogram 8. predictive-analytical modules: a aggregate demand generation, b estimation of intersectoral interactions, c resource constraints testing d estimation of standard of living indicators. The modules are interconnected with horizontal communication channels activated within one time cycle (step or year and vertical communication channels activated between different time cycles. The authors test the model complex on the data of Khabarovsk Territory. The results of the study include quantitative assessments of macroeconomic and social parameters projections in the context of stages and scenarios of socio-economic development of the region

  10. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  11. Determination of the Dalitz-plot parameter {alpha} for the decay {eta}{yields}3{pi}{sup 0} with the Crystal Ball at MAMI; Bestimmung des Dalitz-Plot-Parameters {alpha} fuer den Zerfall {eta} {yields} 3{pi}{sup 0} mit dem Crystal Ball am MAMI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unverzagt, Marc

    2008-05-26

    In order to determine the Dalitz-plot parameter {alpha} experiments were evaluated, Which were performed with the Crystal Ball/TAPS facility at the accelerator MAMI of the Institute for Nuclear Physics at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz in the years 2004 and 2005. {eta} mesons wer produced via the reaction {gamma}p{yields}{eta}p. From four different analyses the following four in this thesis determined Dalitz-plot parameters with the given statistics resulted: {eta} without proton: {alpha}=-0.0314{+-}0.0013{sub -0.0014}{sup +0.0017} (1.1.10{sup 6} events), {eta} with proton: {alpha}=-0.0338{+-}0.0020{sub -0.0022}{sup +0.0019} (4.2.10{sup 5} events), {delta}{sup +} magnetic dipole moment without proton: {alpha}=-0.0277{+-}0.0013{sub -0.0019}{sup +0.0014} (7.1.10{sup 5} events), {delta}{sup +} magnetic dipole moment with proton: {alpha}=-0.0272{+-}0.0019{sub -0.0043}{sup +0.0022} (3.1.10{sup 5} events).

  12. Deep Learning Based Solar Flare Forecasting Model. I. Results for Line-of-sight Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xin; Wang, Huaning; Xu, Long; Liu, Jinfu; Li, Rong; Dai, Xinghua

    2018-03-01

    Solar flares originate from the release of the energy stored in the magnetic field of solar active regions, the triggering mechanism for these flares, however, remains unknown. For this reason, the conventional solar flare forecast is essentially based on the statistic relationship between solar flares and measures extracted from observational data. In the current work, the deep learning method is applied to set up the solar flare forecasting model, in which forecasting patterns can be learned from line-of-sight magnetograms of solar active regions. In order to obtain a large amount of observational data to train the forecasting model and test its performance, a data set is created from line-of-sight magnetogarms of active regions observed by SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI from 1996 April to 2015 October and corresponding soft X-ray solar flares observed by GOES. The testing results of the forecasting model indicate that (1) the forecasting patterns can be automatically reached with the MDI data and they can also be applied to the HMI data; furthermore, these forecasting patterns are robust to the noise in the observational data; (2) the performance of the deep learning forecasting model is not sensitive to the given forecasting periods (6, 12, 24, or 48 hr); (3) the performance of the proposed forecasting model is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art flare forecasting models, even if the duration of the total magnetograms continuously spans 19.5 years. Case analyses demonstrate that the deep learning based solar flare forecasting model pays attention to areas with the magnetic polarity-inversion line or the strong magnetic field in magnetograms of active regions.

  13. Study of the reaction {gamma}p {yields} p{pi}{sup 0}{eta}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horn, I.; Bartholomy, O.; Beck, R.; Ehmanns, A.; Ernst, J.; Fabry, I.; Fuchs, M.; Funke, C.; Gutz, E.; Junkersfeld, J.; Kalinowsky, H.; Klempt, E.; Lotz, J.; Pee, H. van; Schmidt, C.; Szczepanek, T.; Thoma, U.; Walther, D.; Weinheimer, C. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik, Bonn (Germany); Anisovich, A.V.; Nikonov, V.A.; Sarantsev, A.V. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik, Bonn (Germany); Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina (Russian Federation); Anton, G.; Bogendoerfer, R.; Foesel, A.; Hoessl, J.; Suft, G. [Universitaet Erlangen, Physikalisches Institut, Erlangen (Germany); Bantes, R.; Gothe, R.; Hoeffgen, S.; Klein, F.; Konrad, M.; Langheinrich, J.; Menze, D.; Ostrick, M.; Schmieden, H.; Schoch, B. [Universitaet Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Bonn (Germany); Beloglazov, Y.; Gridnev, A.; Lopatin, I.; Novinski, D.; Sumachev, V. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina (Russian Federation); Castelijns, R.; Loehner, H. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, Groningen (Netherlands); Crede, V. [Florida State University, Department of Physics, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Flemming, H.; Koch, H.; Kopf, B.; Matthaey, H. [Universitaet Bochum, Institut fuer Experimentalphysik I, Bochum (Germany); Krusche, B. [Universitaet Basel, Institut fuer Physik, Basel (Switzerland); Messchendorp, J.; Metag, V. [Universitaet Giessen, II. Physikalisches Institut, Giessen (Germany)

    2008-11-15

    The reaction {gamma}p {yields} p{pi}{sup 0}{eta} has been studied with the CBELSA detector at the tagged photon beam of the Bonn electron stretcher facility. The reaction shows contributions from {delta}{sup +}(1232){eta}, N(1535){sup +}{pi}{sup 0} and pa{sub 0}(980) as intermediate states. A partial-wave analysis suggests that the reaction proceeds via formation of six {delta} -resonances, {delta}(1600)P{sub 33}, {delta}(1920)P{sub 33}, {delta}(1700)D{sub 33}, {delta}(1940)D{sub 33}, {delta}(1905)F{sub 35}, {delta}(2360)D{sub 33}, and two nucleon resonances N(1880)P{sub 11} and N(2200)P{sub 13}, for which pole positions and decay branching ratios are given. (orig.)

  14. Measurement of inclusive eta production in e+e- interactions near charm threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partridge, R.; Peck, C.; Porter, F.C.; Gu, Y.F.; Kollmann, W.; Richardson, M.; Strauch, K.; Wacker, K.; Aschman, D.; Bagger, J.; Burnett, T.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Coyne, D.; Joy, M.; Sadrozinski, H.F.W.; Hofstadter, R.; Horisberger, R.; Kirkbride, I.; Kolanoski, H.; Koenigsmann, K.; Liberman, A.; O'Reilly, J.; Osterheld, A.; Tompkins, J.; Bloom, E.; Bulos, F.; Chestnut, R.; Gaiser, J.; Godfrey, G.; Kiesling, C.; Lockman, W.; Oreglia, M.

    1981-01-01

    We have measured the inclusive cross section for eta production in e + e - interactions near charm threshold using the Crystal Ball detector. No pronounced structure in the energy dependence is observed. By comparing cross sections above and below charm threshold we obtain the limits (90% confidence limit): R(e + e - →FF-barX)Br(F→etax) <0.15--0.32 (for E/sub c.m./ from 4.0 to 4.5 GeV), Br(D→etax)<0.13 [averaged over charged and neutral D components of the psi''(3770) decays]. Our results are inconsistent with a previous report of a large energy dependence of the eta cross section ascribed to the crossing the FF* and F*F* production thresholds

  15. Application of seasonal forecasting for the drought forecasting in Catalonia (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Zaragoza, Albert; Aznar, Blanca; Cabot, Jordi

    2010-05-01

    Low flows and droughts are a hydro-climatic feature in Spain (Alvarez et al, 2008). The construction of dams as water reservoirs has been a usual tool to manage the water resources for agriculture and livestock, industries and human needs (MIMAM, 2000, 2007). The last drought that has affected Spain has last four years in Catalonia, from 2004 to the spring of 2008, and it has been particularly hard as a consequence of the precipitation deficit in the upper part of the rivers that nourish the main dams. This problem increases when the water scarcity affects very populated areas, like big cities. The Barcelona city, with more than 3.000.000 people concentrated in the downtown and surrounding areas is a clear example. One of the objectives of the SOSTAQUA project is to improve the water resources management in real time, in order to improve the water supply in the cities in the framework of sustainable development. The work presented here deals with the application of seasonal forecasting to improve the water management in Catalonia, particularly in drought conditions. A seasonal prediction index has been created as a linear combination of climatic data and the ECM4 prediction that has been validated too. This information has implemented into a hydrological model and it has been applied to the last drought considering the real water demands of population, as well as to the water storage evolution in the last months. It has been found a considerable advance in the forecasting of water volume into reservoirs. The advantage of this methodology is that it only requires seasonal forecasting free through internet. Due to the fact that the principal rivers that supply water to Barcelona, birth on the Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees region, the analysis and precipitation forecasting is focused on this region (Zaragoza, 2008).

  16. 3-D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-02-01

    We present the application of interactive 3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and forecast wind field resolution. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (three to seven days before take-off).

  17. Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva

    2012-01-01

    A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

  18. Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva

    2012-07-25

    A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

  19. PRIPOVEDNIŠTVO JOŽETA KERENČIČA

    OpenAIRE

    Mohorko, Laura

    2015-01-01

    Pripovedna proza Jožeta Kerenčiča je bila zaradi ideoloških vzgibov in njegovega političnega predvojnega delovanja skozi desetletja skorajda neraziskana, po osamosvojitvi Slovenije pa v večji meri prezrta. Ker je obravnavani avtor eden izmed manj vidnih predstavnikov socialnega realizma, se je njegovim proznim delom posvetilo bore malo literarnih zgodovinarjev. Jože Kerenčič je v obdobju med vojnama bil izjemno aktiven klicatelj revolucije in vstajniški govornik v vzhodnoštajerskem prostoru. ...

  20. Detection of soft X-rays from α Lyrae and eta Bootis with an imaging X-ray telescope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topka, K.; Fabricant, D.; Harnden, F.R. Jr.; Gorenstein, P.; Rosner, R.

    1979-01-01

    Two nearby stars have been detected in the soft X-ray band with an imaging X-ray telescope flown aboard two sounding rockets. The exposure times were 4.8 and 4.5 s for the images of the AO V star α Lyrae (Vega) and the GO IV star eta Bootis, respectively. Laboratory measurements rule out the possibility that the observed signals were due to UV contamination. These X-ray observations imply luminosities of L/sub X/(0.2--0.8 keV) approx. =3 x 10 28 ergs s -1 for Vega and L/sub X/(0.15--1.5 keV) approx. =1 x 10 29 ergs s -1 for eta Boo. A coronal interpretation of the X-rays from Vega is in serious conflict with simple convective models for early-type main-sequence stars. Magnetic field activity may be responsible for heating the corona, as has been suggested for the Sun. In the case of eta Boo, a coronal interpretation is also favored; however, if the unseen companion of eta Boo is degenerate, the X-ray emission may instead originate in a stellar wind accreting upon a white dwarf or neutron star

  1. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-07-01

    We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

  2. A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (hindcasts from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009 are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region. Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 % in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows, whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for  ∼ 70

  3. System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents a methodology that combines the power of an Artificial Neural Network and Information Theory to forecast variables describing the condition of a regional system. The novelty and strength of this approach is in the application of Fisher information, a key metho...

  4. Observation of a backward peak in the gamma d ---> pi0 d cross- section near the eta threshold

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yordanka Ilieva; Barry Berman; Alexander Kudryavtsev; I.I. Strakovsky; V.E. Tarasov; Moscov Amaryan; Pawel Ambrozewicz; Marco Anghinolfi; G. Asryan; Harutyun Avakian; Hovhannes Baghdasaryan; Nathan Baillie; Jacques Ball; Nathan Baltzell; V. Batourine; Marco Battaglieri; Ivan Bedlinski; Ivan Bedlinskiy; Matthew Bellis; Nawal Benmouna; Angela Biselli; Sylvain Bouchigny; Sergey Boyarinov; Robert Bradford; Derek Branford; William Briscoe; William Brooks; Stephen Bueltmann; Volker Burkert; Cornel Butuceanu; John Calarco; Sharon Careccia; Daniel Carman; Shifeng Chen; Philip Cole; Patrick Collins; Philip Coltharp; Donald Crabb; Volker Crede; R. De Masi; Enzo De Sanctis; Raffaella De Vita; Pavel Degtiarenko; Alexandre Deur; Richard Dickson; Chaden Djalali; Gail Dodge; Joseph Donnelly; David Doughty; Michael Dugger; Oleksandr Dzyubak; Hovanes Egiyan; Kim Egiyan; Latifa Elouadrhiri; Paul Eugenio; Gleb Fedotov; Gerald Feldman; Herbert Funsten; Michel Garcon; Gagik Gavalian; Gerard Gilfoyle; Kevin Giovanetti; Francois-Xavier Girod; John Goetz; Atilla Gonenc; Ralf Gothe; Keith Griffioen; Michel Guidal; Nevzat Guler; Lei Guo; Vardan Gyurjyan; Kawtar Hafidi; Rafael Hakobyan; F. Hersman; Kenneth Hicks; Ishaq Hleiqawi; Maurik Holtrop; Charles Hyde; Charles Hyde-Wright; David Ireland; Boris Ishkhanov; Eugeny Isupov; Mark Ito; David Jenkins; Hyon-Suk Jo; Kyungseon Joo; Henry Juengst; Narbe Kalantarians; James Kellie; Mahbubul Khandaker; Wooyoung Kim; Andreas Klein; Franz Klein; Mikhail Kossov; Zebulun Krahn; Laird Kramer; V. Kubarovsky; Joachim Kuhn; Sebastian Kuhn; Sergey Kuleshov; Jeff Lachniet; Jean Laget; Jorn Langheinrich; David Lawrence; Kenneth Livingston; Haiyun Lu; Marion MacCormick; Nikolai Markov; Bryan McKinnon; Bernhard Mecking; Mac Mestayer; Curtis Meyer; Tsutomu Mibe; Konstantin Mikhaylov; Marco Mirazita; Rory Miskimen; Viktor Mokeev; Kei Moriya; Steven Morrow; M. Moteabbed; E. Munevar; Gordon Mutchler; Pawel Nadel-Turonski; Rakhsha Nasseripour; Silvia Niccolai; Gabriel Niculescu; Maria-Ioana Niculescu; Bogdan Niczyporuk; Megh Niroula; Rustam Niyazov; Mina Nozar; Mikhail Osipenko; Alexander Ostrovidov; K. Park; Evgueni Pasyuk; Craig Paterson; Joshua Pierce; Nikolay Pivnyuk; Oleg Pogorelko; S. Pozdniakov; John Price; Yelena Prok; Dan Protopopescu; Brian Raue; Giovanni Ricco; Marco Ripani; Barry Ritchie; Federico Ronchetti; Guenther Rosner; Patrizia Rossi; Franck Sabatie; Carlos Salgado; Joseph Santoro; Vladimir Sapunenko; Reinhard Schumacher; Vladimir Serov; Youri Sharabian; Nikolay Shvedunov; Elton Smith; Lee Smith; Daniel Sober; Aleksey Stavinskiy; Samuel Stepanyan; Stepan Stepanyan; Burnham Stokes; Paul Stoler; Steffen Strauch; Mauro Taiuti; David Tedeschi; Ulrike Thoma; Avtandil Tkabladze; Svyatoslav Tkachenko; Clarisse Tur; Maurizio Ungaro; Michael Vineyard; Alexander Vlassov; Lawrence Weinstein; Dennis Weygand; M. Williams; Elliott Wolin; Michael Wood; Amrit Yegneswaran; Lorenzo Zana; Jixie Zhang; Bo Zhao; Zhiwen Zhao

    2007-05-14

    High-quality cross sections for the reaction gamma+d->pi^0+d have been measured using the CLAS at Jefferson Lab over a wide energy range near and above the eta-meson photoproduction threshold. At backward c.m. angles for the outgoing pions, we observe a resonance-like structure near E_gamma=700 MeV. Our model analysis shows that it can be explained by eta excitation in the intermediate state. The effect is the result of the contribution of the N(1535)S_11 resonance to the amplitudes of the subprocesses occurring between the two nucleons and of a two-step process in which the excitation of an intermediate eta meson dominates.

  5. Maitasunean eta errespetuan hezten: 0-3 urte bitartekoen harmonia

    OpenAIRE

    Erice Olaizola, Ane

    2015-01-01

    LABURPENA: Aurrerapen zientifikoek aurrera egin ahala, lehen haurtzarorako begirada eraldatu egin da, bereziki garapen motorraren alorrean. Haurtxoa izaki pasibo bezala ikusten zuten ikuskerek, subjektuaren konpetentzia goiztiarren aurrean begiruneko jarrerak gartu dituzte. Lan honetan kalitatezko hezkuntza eredu instituzionalizatua garatu zuen Emmi Pikler-en ekarpenak aztertuko ditugu. Eredu honek printzipio pedagogiko zehatz batzuen arabera jaioberria eta haurtxo txikia ikusteko beste era b...

  6. High transverse momentum phenomena involving π and eta mesons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buesser, F.W.; Camilleri, L.; Di Lella, L.

    1975-01-01

    The inclusive production of π and eta mesons at theta/sub cm/ = 90 0 was measured for proton-proton collisions at five center-of-mass energies between 23.5 and 62.4 GeV. The momentum correlation of charged particles emitted together with a large transverse momentum π was also studied using two magnetic spectrometers each centered at theta/sub cm/ = 90 0

  7. K-matrix analysis of the (IJ sup P sup C = 00 sup + sup +)-wave in the mass region below 1900 MeV

    CERN Document Server

    Anisovich, V V

    2003-01-01

    We present the results of the current analysis of the partial wave IJ sup P sup C =00 sup + sup + based on the available data for meson spectra (pi pi, K anti K, eta eta, eta eta sup ' ,pi pi pi pi). In the framework of the K-matrix approach, the analytical amplitude has been reconstructed in the mass region 280 MeVeta eta,eta eta sup ' ,pi pi pi pi). The fitted amplitude gives us the positions of the K-matrix poles (bare states) and the values of bare-state couplings to meson channels thus allowing the quark-antiquark nonet classification of bare states. On the basis of the obtained partial widths to the channels pi pi, anti KK,eta e...

  8. Water soluble (Eta sup (6) - arene) ruthenium (II) complexes incorporating marine derived bioligand: Synthesis, spectral and structural studies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Singh, K.S.; Svitlyk, V.; PrabhaDevi; Mozharivskyj, Y.

    by the reaction of [{(eta sup(6)-arene) RuCl sub(2)}sub(2)] with HMP. The complexes 1 and 2 react with NaN sub(3) to give in excellent yield tetra-azido complexes [{(Eta sup(6)-arene)Ru(Mu N sub(3))N sub(3)}sub(2)] (arene = cymene 4, HMB = 5) but similar reaction...

  9. High Energy Phenomena in Eta Carinae Roberto F. Viotti , Lucio ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    High Energy Phenomena in Eta Carinae ... Colliding winds model—non-thermal emission—stars: η ... very massive wind. Its unseen compan- ion should be a less evolved early-type star. It was found that the two last spectroscopic minima of June 1992 and December 1997 coincided with two X-ray eclipses detected.

  10. Forecasting sea fog on the coast of southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H.; Huang, B.; Liu, C.; Tu, J.; Wen, G.; Mao, W.

    2016-12-01

    Forecast sea fog is still full of challenges. We have performed the numerical forecasting of sea fog on the coast of southern China by using the operational meso-scale regional model GRAPES (Global/Regional assimilation and prediction system). The GRAPES model horizontal resolution was 3km and with 66 vertical levels. A total of 72 hours forecasting of sea fog was conducted with hourly outputs over the sea fog event. The results show that the model system can predict reasonable characteristics of typical sea fog events on the coast of southern China. The scope of sea fog coincides with the observations of meteorological stations, the observations of the Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base (MMSEB) at Bohe, Maoming and satellite products of sea fog. The goal of this study is to establish an operational numerical forecasting model system of sea fog on the coast of southern China.

  11. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  12. Forecasting Italian seismicity through a spatio-temporal physical model: importance of considering time-dependency and reliability of the forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hakimhashemi

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We apply here a forecasting model to the Italian region for the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity based on a smoothing Kernel function, Coulomb stress variations, and a rate-and-state friction law. We tested the feasibility of this approach, and analyzed the importance of introducing time-dependency in forecasting future events. The change in seismicity rate as a function of time was estimated by calculating the Coulomb stress change imparted by large earthquakes. We applied our approach to the region of Italy, and used all of the cataloged earthquakes that occurred up to 2006 to generate the reference seismicity rate. For calculation of the time-dependent seismicity rate changes, we estimated the rate-and-state stress transfer imparted by all of the ML≥4.0 earthquakes that occurred during 2007 and 2008. To validate the results, we first compared the reference seismicity rate with the distribution of ML≥1.8 earthquakes since 2007, using both a non-declustered and a declustered catalog. A positive correlation was found, and all of the forecast earthquakes had locations within 82% and 87% of the study area with the highest seismicity rate, respectively. Furthermore, 95% of the forecast earthquakes had locations within 27% and 47% of the study area with the highest seismicity rate, respectively. For the time-dependent seismicity rate changes, the number of events with locations in the regions with a seismicity rate increase was 11% more than in the regions with a seismicity rate decrease.

  13. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  14. On forecasting ionospheric total electron content responses to high-speed solar wind streams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Conditions in the ionosphere have become increasingly important to forecast, since more and more spaceborne and ground-based technological systems rely on ionospheric weather. Here we explore the feasibility of ionospheric forecasts with the current generation of physics-based models. In particular, we focus on total electron content (TEC predictions using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM. Simulations are configured in a forecast mode and performed for four typical high-speed-stream events during 2007–2012. The simulated TECs are quantified through a metric, which divides the globe into a number of local regions and robustly differentiates between quiet and disturbed periods. Proposed forecast products are hourly global maps color-coded by the TEC disturbance level of each local region. To assess the forecasts, we compare the simulated TEC disturbances with global TEC maps derived from Global Positioning System (GPS satellite observations. The forecast performance is found to be merely acceptable, with a large number of regions where the observed variations are not captured by the simulations. Examples of model-data agreements and disagreements are investigated in detail, aiming to understand the model behavior and improve future forecasts. For one event, we identify two adjacent regions with similar TEC observations but significant differences in how local chemistry versus plasma transport contribute to electron density changes in the simulation. Suggestions for further analysis are described.

  15. Limited Area Predictability: Is There A Limit To The Operational Usefulness of A Lam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The issue of the limited area predictability in the context of the operational experience of the Eta Model, driven by the LBCs of the NCEP global spectral (Avn) model, is examined. The traditional view is that "the contamination at the lateral boundaries ... limits the operational usefulness of the LAM beyond some forecast time range". In the case of the Eta this contamination consists not only of the lower resolution of the Avn LBCs and the much discussed mathematical "lateral boundary error", but also of the use of the LBCs of the previous Avn run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. Looking for the signs of the Eta accuracy in relative terms falling behind that of the Avn we have examined the trend of the Eta vs Avn precipitation scores, the rms fits to raobs of the two models as a function of time, and the errors of these models at extended forecast times in placing the centers of major lows. In none of these efforts, some including forecasts out to 84 h, we were able to notice signs of the Eta accuracy being visibly affected by the inflow of the lateral boundary errors. It is therefore hypothesized that some of the Eta design features compensate for the increasing influence of the Avn LBC errors. Candidate features are discussed, with the eta coordinate being a contender to play a major role. This situation being possible for the pair of models discussed, existence of a general limit for the operational usefulness of a LAM seems questionable.

  16. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  17. A hybrid spatiotemporal drought forecasting model for operational use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasiliades, L.; Loukas, A.

    2010-09-01

    Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. This study develops a hybrid spatiotemporal scheme for integrated spatial and temporal forecasting. Temporal forecasting is achieved using feed-forward neural networks and the temporal forecasts are extended to the spatial dimension using a spatial recurrent neural network model. The methodology is demonstrated for an operational meteorological drought index the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated at multiple timescales. 48 precipitation stations and 18 independent precipitation stations, located at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece, were used for the development and spatiotemporal validation of the hybrid spatiotemporal scheme. Several quantitative temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. Furthermore, qualitative statistical criteria based on contingency tables between observed and forecasted drought episodes were calculated. The results show that the lead time of forecasting for operational use depends on the SPI timescale. The hybrid spatiotemporal drought forecasting model could be operationally used for forecasting up to three months ahead for SPI short timescales (e.g. 3-6 months) up to six months ahead for large SPI timescales (e.g. 24 months). The above findings could be useful in developing a drought preparedness plan in the region.

  18. A comparison of boundary-layer heights inferred from wind-profiler backscatter profiles with diagnostic calculations using regional model forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baltink, H.K.; Holtslag, A.A.M. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., KNMI, De Bilt (Netherlands)

    1997-10-01

    From October 1994 through January 1997 the Tropospheric Energy Budget Experiment (TEBEX) was executed by KNMI. The main objectives are to study boundary layer processes and cloud variability on the sub-grid scale of present Global Climate Models and to improve the related sub-grid parametrizations. A suite of instruments was deployed to measure a large number of variables. Measurements to characterize ABL processes were focussed around the 200 m high meteorological observation tower of the KNMI in Cabauw. In the framework of TEBEX a 1290 MHz wind-profiler/RASS was installed in July 1994 at 300 m from tower. Data collected during TEBEX are used to assess the performance of a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). This climate model runs also in a operational forecast mode once a day. The diagnostic ABL-height (h{sub model}) is calculated from the RACMO forecast output. A modified Richardson`s number method extended with an excess parcel temperature is applied for all stability conditions. We present the preliminary results of a comparison of h{sub model} from forecasts with measured h{sub TS} derived from profiler and sodar data for July 1995. (au)

  19. Multi-platform operational validation of the Western Mediterranean SOCIB forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin

    2014-05-01

    The development of science-based ocean forecasting systems at global, regional, and local scales can support a better management of the marine environment (maritime security, environmental and resources protection, maritime and commercial operations, tourism, ...). In this context, SOCIB (the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, www.socib.es) has developed an operational ocean forecasting system in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) nested in the larger scale Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) with a spatial resolution of 1.5-2km. WMOP aims at reproducing both the basin-scale ocean circulation and the mesoscale variability which is known to play a crucial role due to its strong interaction with the large scale circulation in this region. An operational validation system has been developed to systematically assess the model outputs at daily, monthly and seasonal time scales. Multi-platform observations are used for this validation, including satellite products (Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly), in situ measurements (from gliders, Argo floats, drifters and fixed moorings) and High-Frequency radar data. The validation procedures allow to monitor and certify the general realism of the daily production of the ocean forecasting system before its distribution to users. Additionally, different indicators (Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity, Eddy Kinetic Energy, Mixed Layer Depth, Heat Content, transports in key sections) are computed every day both at the basin-scale and in several sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion). The daily forecasts, validation diagnostics and indicators from the operational model over the last months are available at www.socib.es.

  20. Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

    2018-02-01

    A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

  1. Isobar model for gamma N -> eta N from threshold up to 1200 MeV

    CERN Document Server

    Tryasuchev, V A

    2002-01-01

    Precise results of the measurements of the gamma p -> eta p cross section near threshold at Mainz (Germany) as well as recent sensational results for the SIGMA-beam asymmetry and d sigma/d OMEGA of this process obtained at larger energies at Grenoble (France) were used to construct the isobar model for the processes gamma N -> eta N. The model includes six nucleon resonances: S sub 1 sub 1 (1535), S sub 1 sub 1 (1650), P sub 1 sub 1 (1440), P sub 1 sub 3 (1720), D sub 1 sub 3 (1520), and F sub 1 sub 5 (1680), whose properties are considered. Large positive experimental value of the SIGMA asymmetry for the processes gamma p -> eta p at small angles was reproduced with F sub 1 sub 5 (1680) and P sub 1 sub 3 (1720) resonances. Both S sub 1 sub 1 (1535) and S sub 1 sub 1 (1650) resonances must be included to describe the energy dependence of total cross section. The available data for the electromagnetic amplitudes of the excitation of resonances on protons and neutrons were adopted for the calculation for the ga...

  2. 20 CFR 658.603 - ETA regional office responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... program budget plan; (3) The effect which economic conditions and other external factors considered by the... ESA and OSHA farmworker specialists in the region and, to the extent necessary, shall establish...

  3. $\\eta_c$ production at LHC and indications on the understanding of $J/\\psi$ production

    CERN Document Server

    Han, Hao; Meng, Ce; Shao, Hua-Sheng; Chao, Kuang-Ta

    2015-01-01

    We present a complete evaluation for the prompt $\\eta_c$ production at the LHC at next-to-leading order in $\\alpha_s$ in nonrelativistic QCD. By assuming heavy quark spin symmetry, the study of $\\eta_c$ production results in a very strong constraint on the upper bound of the color-octet long distance matrix element $\\mopa$ of $J/\\psi$. We find this upper bound is consistent with our previous study of the $J/\\psi$ yield and polarization and can give good descriptions for the measurements, but in conflict with most other theoretical studies. This may provide important information for understanding the mechanism of charmonium production.

  4. El final de ETA: ¿lucha contra el terrorismo o resolución de conflicto?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier I. García

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available El artículo analiza la dinámica y la naturaleza del nuevo proceso de paz puesto en marcha entre la banda terrorista ETA y el Gobierno del presidente Rodríguez Zapatero. Un nuevo esfuerzo por acabar con la violencia de ETA caracterizado por la “indefinición” de su naturaleza, en el que se intentan hacer compatibles dos aproximaciones radicalmente opuestas: la visión desde la perspectiva de la lucha contra el terrorismo y la concepción del proceso como resolución de conflictos. Desarrollar un proceso de paz con ETA sobre la base de la resolución de conflictos y mantener una política de lucha contra el terrorismo resulta conceptualmente incompatible. Igualmente, la imposibilidad del gobierno español, respetando los límites del Estado de Derecho vigente, de aceptar las implicaciones y consecuencias que supone la búsqueda del fin del terrorismo con las reglas y los procedimientos propios de un proceso de resolución de conflictos, convierten a esta estrategia en inviable.

  5. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  6. Measurement of charged particle multiplicities in $pp$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 7 TeV in the forward region

    CERN Document Server

    INSPIRE-00258707; Abellan Beteta, C.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Adrover, C.; Affolder, A.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Alkhazov, G.; Alvarez Cartelle, P.; Alves Jr, A.A.; Amato, S.; Amhis, Y.; Anderson, J.; Appleby, R.B.; Aquines Gutierrez, O.; Archilli, F.; Arrabito, L.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J.J.; Bailey, D.S.; Balagura, V.; Baldini, W.; Barlow, R.J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Bates, A.; Bauer, C.; Bauer, Th.; Bay, A.; Bediaga, I.; Belogurov, S.; Belous, K.; Belyaev, I.; Ben-Haim, E.; Benayoun, M.; Bencivenni, G.; Benson, S.; Benton, J.; Bernet, R.; Bettler, M.O.; van Beuzekom, M.; Bien, A.; Bifani, S.; Bird, T.; Bizzeti, A.; Bjornstad, P.M.; Blake, T.; Blanc, F.; Blanks, C.; Blouw, J.; Blusk, S.; Bobrov, A.; Bocci, V.; Bondar, A.; Bondar, N.; Bonivento, W.; Borghi, S.; Borgia, A.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Bozzi, C.; Brambach, T.; van den Brand, J.; Bressieux, J.; Brett, D.; Britsch, M.; Britton, T.; Brook, N.H.; Brown, H.; Buchler-Germann, A.; Burducea, I.; Bursche, A.; Buytaert, J.; Cadeddu, S.; Callot, O.; Calvi, M.; Calvo Gomez, M.; Camboni, A.; Campana, P.; Carbone, A.; Carboni, G.; Cardinale, R.; Cardini, A.; Carson, L.; Carvalho Akiba, K.; Casse, G.; Cattaneo, M.; Cauet, Ch.; Charles, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Chiapolini, N.; Ciba, K.; Cid Vidal, X.; Ciezarek, G.; Clarke, P.E.L.; Clemencic, M.; Cliff, H.V.; Closier, J.; Coca, C.; Coco, V.; Cogan, J.; Collins, P.; Comerma-Montells, A.; Constantin, F.; Conti, G.; Contu, A.; Cook, A.; Coombes, M.; Corti, G.; Cowan, G.A.; Currie, R.; D'Almagne, B.; D'Ambrosio, C.; David, P.; David, P.N.Y.; De Bonis, I.; De Capua, S.; De Cian, M.; De Lorenzi, F.; de Miranda, J.M.; De Paula, L.; De Simone, P.; Decamp, D.; Deckenhoff, M.; Degaudenzi, H.; Deissenroth, M.; Del Buono, L.; Deplano, C.; Derkach, D.; Deschamps, O.; Dettori, F.; Dickens, J.; Dijkstra, H.; Diniz Batista, P.; Bonal, F.Domingo; Donleavy, S.; Dordei, F.; Dosil Suarez, A.; Dossett, D.; Dovbnya, A.; Dupertuis, F.; Dzhelyadin, R.; Dziurda, A.; Easo, S.; Egede, U.; Egorychev, V.; Eidelman, S.; van Eijk, D.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhardt, S.; Ekelhof, R.; Eklund, L.; Elsasser, Ch.; Elsby, D.; Esperante Pereira, D.; Esteve, L.; Falabella, A.; Fanchini, E.; Farber, C.; Fardell, G.; Farinelli, C.; Farry, S.; Fave, V.; Fernandez Albor, V.; Ferro-Luzzi, M.; Filippov, S.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Fontana, M.; Fontanelli, F.; Forty, R.; Frank, M.; Frei, C.; Frosini, M.; Furcas, S.; Gallas Torreira, A.; Galli, D.; Gandelman, M.; Gandini, P.; Gao, Y.; Garnier, J-C.; Garofoli, J.; Garra Tico, J.; Garrido, L.; Gascon, D.; Gaspar, C.; Gauvin, N.; Gersabeck, M.; Gershon, T.; Ghez, Ph.; Gibson, V.; Gligorov, V.V.; Gobel, C.; Golubkov, D.; Golutvin, A.; Gomes, A.; Gordon, H.; Grabalosa Gandara, M.; Graciani Diaz, R.; Granado Cardoso, L.A.; Grauges, E.; Graziani, G.; Grecu, A.; Greening, E.; Gregson, S.; Gui, B.; Gushchin, E.; Guz, Yu.; Gys, T.; Haefeli, G.; Haen, C.; Haines, S.C.; Hampson, T.; Hansmann-Menzemer, S.; Harji, R.; Harnew, N.; Harrison, J.; Harrison, P.F.; He, J.; Heijne, V.; Hennessy, K.; Henrard, P.; Hernando Morata, J.A.; van Herwijnen, E.; Hicks, E.; Holubyev, K.; Hopchev, P.; Hulsbergen, W.; Hunt, P.; Huse, T.; Huston, R.S.; Hutchcroft, D.; Hynds, D.; Iakovenko, V.; Ilten, P.; Imong, J.; Jacobsson, R.; Jaeger, A.; Jahjah Hussein, M.; Jans, E.; Jansen, F.; Jaton, P.; Jean-Marie, B.; Jing, F.; John, M.; Johnson, D.; Jones, C.R.; Jost, B.; Kaballo, M.; Kandybei, S.; Karacson, M.; Karbach, T.M.; Keaveney, J.; Kenyon, I.R.; Kerzel, U.; Ketel, T.; Keune, A.; Khanji, B.; Kim, Y.M.; Knecht, M.; Koppenburg, P.; Kozlinskiy, A.; Kravchuk, L.; Kreplin, K.; Kreps, M.; Krocker, G.; Krokovny, P.; Kruse, F.; Kruzelecki, K.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kvaratskheliya, T.; La Thi, V.N.; Lacarrere, D.; Lafferty, G.; Lai, A.; Lambert, D.; Lambert, R.W.; Lanciotti, E.; Lanfranchi, G.; Langenbruch, C.; Latham, T.; Lazzeroni, C.; Le Gac, R.; van Leerdam, J.; Lees, J.P.; Lefevre, R.; Leflat, A.; Lefrancois, J.; Leroy, O.; Lesiak, T.; Li, L.; Li Gioi, L.; Lieng, M.; Liles, M.; Lindner, R.; Linn, C.; Liu, B.; Liu, G.; Lopes, J.H.; Lopez Asamar, E.; Lopez-March, N.; Lu, H.; Luisier, J.; Raighne, A.Mac; Machefert, F.; Machikhiliyan, I.V.; Maciuc, F.; Maev, O.; Magnin, J.; Malde, S.; Mamunur, R.M.D.; Manca, G.; Mancinelli, G.; Mangiafave, N.; Marconi, U.; Marki, R.; Marks, J.; Martellotti, G.; Martens, A.; Martin, L.; Martin Sanchez, A.; Martinez Santos, D.; Massafferri, A.; Mathe, Z.; Matteuzzi, C.; Matveev, M.; Maurice, E.; Maynard, B.; Mazurov, A.; McGregor, G.; McNulty, R.; Mclean, C.; Meissner, M.; Merk, M.; Merkel, J.; Messi, R.; Miglioranzi, S.; Milanes, D.A.; Minard, M.N.; Molina Rodriguez, J.; Monteil, S.; Moran, D.; Morawski, P.; Mountain, R.; Mous, I.; Muheim, F.; Muller, K.; Muresan, R.; Muryn, B.; Muster, B.; Musy, M.; Mylroie-Smith, J.; Naik, P.; Nakada, T.; Nandakumar, R.; Nasteva, I.; Nedos, M.; Needham, M.; Neufeld, N.; Nguyen-Mau, C.; Nicol, M.; Niess, V.; Nikitin, N.; Nomerotski, A.; Novoselov, A.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Oggero, S.; Ogilvy, S.; Okhrimenko, O.; Oldeman, R.; Orlandea, M.; Otalora Goicochea, J.M.; Owen, P.; Pal, K.; Palacios, J.; Palano, A.; Palutan, M.; Panman, J.; Papanestis, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Parkes, C.; Parkinson, C.J.; Passaleva, G.; Patel, G.D.; Patel, M.; Paterson, S.K.; Patrick, G.N.; Patrignani, C.; Pavel-Nicorescu, C.; Pazos Alvarez, A.; Pellegrino, A.; Penso, G.; Pepe Altarelli, M.; Perazzini, S.; Perego, D.L.; Perez Trigo, E.; Perez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Perret, P.; Perrin-Terrin, M.; Pessina, G.; Petrella, A.; Petrolini, A.; Phan, A.; Picatoste Olloqui, E.; Pie Valls, B.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pilar, T.; Pinci, D.; Plackett, R.; Playfer, S.; Plo Casasus, M.; Polok, G.; Poluektov, A.; Polycarpo, E.; Popov, D.; Popovici, B.; Potterat, C.; Powell, A.; du Pree, T.; Prisciandaro, J.; Pugatch, V.; Puig Navarro, A.; Qian, W.; Rademacker, J.H.; Rakotomiaramanana, B.; Rangel, M.S.; Raniuk, I.; Raven, G.; Redford, S.; Reid, M.M.; dos Reis, A.C.; Ricciardi, S.; Rinnert, K.; Roa Romero, D.A.; Robbe, P.; Rodrigues, E.; Rodrigues, F.; Rodriguez Perez, P.; Rogers, G.J.; Roiser, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Rosello, M.; Rouvinet, J.; Ruf, T.; Ruiz, H.; Sabatino, G.; Saborido Silva, J.J.; Sagidova, N.; Sail, P.; Saitta, B.; Salzmann, C.; Sannino, M.; Santacesaria, R.; Santamarina Rios, C.; Santinelli, R.; Santovetti, E.; Sapunov, M.; Sarti, A.; Satriano, C.; Satta, A.; Savrie, M.; Savrina, D.; Schaack, P.; Schiller, M.; Schleich, S.; Schlupp, M.; Schmelling, M.; Schmidt, B.; Schneider, O.; Schopper, A.; Schune, M.H.; Schwemmer, R.; Sciascia, B.; Sciubba, A.; Seco, M.; Semennikov, A.; Senderowska, K.; Sepp, I.; Serra, N.; Serrano, J.; Seyfert, P.; Shao, B.; Shapkin, M.; Shapoval, I.; Shatalov, P.; Shcheglov, Y.; Shears, T.; Shekhtman, L.; Shevchenko, O.; Shevchenko, V.; Shires, A.; Coutinho, R.Silva; Skwarnicki, T.; Smith, A.C.; Smith, N.A.; Smith, E.; Sobczak, K.; Soler, F.J.P.; Solomin, A.; Soomro, F.; Souza De Paula, B.; Spaan, B.; Sparkes, A.; Spradlin, P.; Stagni, F.; Stahl, S.; Steinkamp, O.; Stoica, S.; Stone, S.; Storaci, B.; Straticiuc, M.; Straumann, U.; Subbiah, V.K.; Swientek, S.; Szczekowski, M.; Szczypka, P.; Szumlak, T.; T'Jampens, S.; Teodorescu, E.; Teubert, F.; Thomas, C.; Thomas, E.; van Tilburg, J.; Tisserand, V.; Tobin, M.; Topp-Joergensen, S.; Torr, N.; Tournefier, E.; Tran, M.T.; Tsaregorodtsev, A.; Tuning, N.; Garcia, M.Ubeda; Ukleja, A.; Urquijo, P.; Uwer, U.; Vagnoni, V.; Valenti, G.; Vazquez Gomez, R.; Vazquez Regueiro, P.; Vecchi, S.; Velthuis, J.J.; Veltri, M.; Viaud, B.; Videau, I.; Vilasis-Cardona, X.; Visniakov, J.; Vollhardt, A.; Volyanskyy, D.; Voong, D.; Vorobyev, A.; Voss, H.; Wandernoth, S.; Wang, J.; Ward, D.R.; Watson, N.K.; Webber, A.D.; Websdale, D.; Whitehead, M.; Wiedner, D.; Wiggers, L.; Wilkinson, G.; Williams, M.P.; Williams, M.; Wilson, F.F.; Wishahi, J.; Witek, M.; Witzeling, W.; Wotton, S.A.; Wyllie, K.; Xie, Y.; Xing, F.; Xing, Z.; Yang, Z.; Young, R.; Yushchenko, O.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, W.C.; Zhang, Y.; Zhelezov, A.; Zhong, L.; Zverev, E.; Zvyagin, A.

    2012-04-20

    The charged particle production in proton-proton collisions is studied with the LHCb detector at a centre-of-mass energy of ${\\sqrt{s} =7}$TeV in different intervals of pseudorapidity $\\eta$. The charged particles are reconstructed close to the interaction region in the vertex detector, which provides high reconstruction efficiency in the $\\eta$ ranges $-2.5<\\eta<-2.0$ and $2.0<\\eta<4.5$. The data were taken with a minimum bias trigger, only requiring one or more reconstructed tracks in the vertex detector. By selecting an event sample with at least one track with a transverse momentum greater than 1 GeV/c a hard QCD subsample is investigated. Several event generators are compared with the data; none are able to describe fully the multiplicity distributions or the charged particle density distribution as a function of $\\eta$. In general, the models underestimate the charged particle production.

  7. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  8. Forecasting the development of regional economy on the basis of input — output tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury Konstantinovich Mashunin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a practical technology of forecasting the development of the regional economy, including the statement of the problem, the construction of a mathematical model, and its implementation. At the constructing of a model, the standard statistical data for the previous period (2011, built on the basis of the table “input — output” are used. A unit of output of final demand, resulting from investments is added. As a result, a model of the regional economy made in the form of a vector mathematical programming problem that takes into account the investment processes in a region is obtained. Its purpose is to maximize the production of final demand in a region (all industries in a region within the constraints of the input-output balance, investments, resource costs and capacities. For solving linear programming problems of vector, methods, based on the principle of normalization criteria and guaranteed result are used. Vector dynamics problem is solved in a specified number of years. The factors taking into account the rate of growth: gross volumes (resources, final demand, investment in every sector of the region are introduced. Numerical implementation of the prediction is shown in the test case economic modeling of Primorsky Krai, including fifteen branches of a three-year period in accordance with the requirements of the Budget Code. Results of the solution include the major economic indicators for a region: gross, gross regional product (GRP, investments (including broken by industry, as well as payroll taxes and other. All these economic indicators are the basis for the formation of budget revenues in a region.

  9. G-parity breaking decays of phi → ππ, phi → etaππ and phi → πω

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karnakov, V.A.

    1985-01-01

    G-parity forbidden hadronic phi decays into ππ, etaππ, πω states are considered. The main attention is paid to the phi → rho transition amplitude, which is signigicant for studied decays. The successive psi → ω → rho transition amplitude is analysed in detail and the contribution of the transition to the interference parameter Zsub(π) of e + e - → ππ reaction is calculated. The decay widths B(phi → etaππ)=0.35x10 -6 , B(phi → πω)=0.82x10 -4 and the interference curve in e + e - → etaππ and e + e - → πω reactions have been calculated. Angular distributions are given

  10. Development of a methodology for monthly forecasting of surface fires of Colombia's vegetation cover, an application to north Andean region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Hernandez, Yolanda; Rangel CH, Jesus Orlando

    2004-01-01

    In the present article a methodology is presented for the forecasting of the monthly risk of surface fires of the vegetation cover in Colombia, based on the analysis of meteorological components and variables of climatic and anthropic variability involved in fire risks of the north Andean region. The methodology enables one to regionalize the country, with fire prediction purposes in mind, into ten sub-regions, in each one of which seven height levels are defined to make up separate regions of study. For each of these, a database is built to feed both the logistic regression models and the Poisson models, which identify the variables independent from, and/or associated with the presence or absence of fires

  11. Eta meson photoproduction on hydrogen from threshold up to 1100 MeV: Measurement of the {Sigma} beam asymmetry; Photoproduction du meson eta sur l`hydrogene du seuil jusqu`a 1100 MeV: Mesure de l`asymetrie faisceau {Sigma}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajaka, Jassem [Inst. de Physique Nucleaire, Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France)

    1997-12-12

    The photoproduction of {eta} meson on hydrogen has been measured from threshold to 1100 MeV in GRAAL experiment performed in 1996 - 1997 at the ESRF in Grenoble by a collaboration of Italian, French and Russian groups. A tagged and linearly polarized photon beam has been produced by back-scattering a laser beam on the 6 GeV electron beam of the ESRF ring. The target was a liquid hydrogen target of 3 cm. A 4{pi} detection system was used. It is composed of three layers of detectors: wire chambers, scintillator counters and calorimeters. We had in charge to install and calibrate a double wall of scintillator bars (3 x 3 m) designed to detect at forward angles (1 deg. - 25 deg.) the charged particles and to measure their loss of energy and their time of flight. We analyzed the results of the reaction {gamma}p {yields} {eta}p by identifying the {eta} in the lateral calorimeter which is a BGO ball and by detecting the proton in the scintillation counters. The {Sigma} beam asymmetry was extracted from {phi} distribution of {eta} meson and was plotted against {theta}{sub CM} of {eta} for 6 intervals of energy between the threshold and 1100 MeV. The interpretation of {Sigma} beam asymmetry was performed in the frame of the isobaric model. The use of two resonances S11(1535) and D13(1520) to explain our results was not sufficient. We had to take into account in addition the excitation of the resonances P13(1720), D15(1675) and P13(1880). The last being missing in the table of resonances and recently revealed by quark models. (author) 94 refs., 56 figs., 20 tabs.

  12. An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel K. Newlands

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

  13. Value versus Accuracy: application of seasonal forecasts to a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.; Badr, H. S.; Shukla, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The unpredictable nature of precipitation within the East African (EA) region makes it one of the most vulnerable, food insecure regions in the world. There is a vital need for forecasts to inform decision makers, both local and regional, and to help formulate the region's climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we present a suite of different seasonal forecast models, both statistical and dynamical, for the EA region. Objective regionalization is performed for EA on the basis of interannual variability in precipitation in both observations and models. This regionalization is applied as the basis for calculating a number of standard skill scores to evaluate each model's forecast accuracy. A dynamically linked Land Surface Model (LSM) is then applied to determine forecasted flows, which drive the Sudanese Hydroeconomic Optimization Model (SHOM). SHOM combines hydrologic, agronomic and economic inputs to determine the optimal decisions that maximize economic benefits along the Sudanese Blue Nile. This modeling sequence is designed to derive the potential added value of information of each forecasting model to agriculture and hydropower management. A rank of each model's forecasting skill score along with its added value of information is analyzed in order compare the performance of each forecast. This research aims to improve understanding of how characteristics of accuracy, lead time, and uncertainty of seasonal forecasts influence their utility to water resources decision makers who utilize them.

  14. Structure investigations on zirconium phosphate preparates by means of DTA, ETA, and TG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbell, J.D.; Specht, S.; Born, H.J.

    1976-01-01

    The simultanous DTA, ETA and TG inorganic ion exchanger based on zirconium phosphate enables the clear interpretation of the effects occuring. In particular it can be seen that the fast transition in amorphous preparates at high temperature of a badly defined form of pyrophosphate into the cubic crystalline substances, however a measurable energy release by means of DTA is not observed due to the slight mobility of the atoms in the crystal lattice. This effect on the other hand may be seen using ETA. In addition, an exothermal reaction occuring in some preparates, especially in cation charged ones, was traced back to the forming of part-crystalline structures which could be especially fast and sensitively characterized using DTA. (orig.) [de

  15. The threat to life from Eta Carinae and gamma ray bursts

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon; Dar, Arnon

    2001-01-01

    Eta Carinae, the most massive and luminous star known in our galaxy, is rapidly boiling matter off its surface. At any time its core could collapse into a black hole, which may result in a gamma-ray burst (GRB) that can devastate life on Earth. Auspiciously, recent observations indicate that the GRBs are narrowly beamed in cones along the rotational axis of the progenitor star. In the case of Eta Carinae the GRBs will not point to us, but will be ravaging to life on planets in our galaxy that happen to lie within the two beaming cones. The mean rate of massive life extinctions by jets from GRBs, per life-supporting planet in galaxies like ours, is once in 100 million years, comparable to the rate of major extinctions observed in the geological records of our planet. GRB extinctions also provide an answer to Fermi's question about alien visitors: ``Where are they?''

  16. Measurement of the {eta}{yields}3{pi}{sup 0} slope parameter {alpha} with the KLOE detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrosino, F., E-mail: Fabio.Ambrosino@na.infn.i [Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche dell' Universita ' Federico II' , Napoli (Italy); INFN Sezione di Napoli, Napoli (Italy); Antonelli, A.; Antonelli, M. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); Archilli, F. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita ' Tor Vergata' , Roma (Italy); INFN Sezione di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma (Italy); Beltrame, P. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz (Germany); Bencivenni, G. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); Bini, C. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita ' La Sapienza' , Roma (Italy); INFN Sezione di ' La Sapienza' , Roma (Italy); Bloise, C. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); Bocchetta, S. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita ' Roma Tre' , Roma (Italy); INFN Sezione di Roma Tre, Roma (Italy); Bossi, F. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); Branchini, P. [INFN Sezione di Roma Tre, Roma (Italy); Campana, P.; Capon, G. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); Capussela, T., E-mail: Tiziana.Capussela@na.infn.i [Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche dell' Universita ' Federico II' , Napoli (Italy); Ceradini, F. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita ' Roma Tre' , Roma (Italy); INFN Sezione di Roma Tre, Roma (Italy); Ciambrone, P.; De Lucia, E. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); De Santis, A. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita ' La Sapienza' , Roma (Italy); INFN Sezione di ' La Sapienza' , Roma (Italy); De Simone, P. [Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati dell' INFN, Frascati (Italy); De Zorzi, G. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita ' La Sapienza' , Roma (Italy); INFN Sezione di ' La Sapienza' , Roma (Italy)

    2010-10-25

    We present a measurement of the slope parameter {alpha} for the {eta}{yields}3{pi}{sup 0} decay, with the KLOE experiment at the DA{Phi}NE {phi}-factory, based on a background free sample of {approx}17 million {eta} mesons produced in {phi} radiative decays. By fitting the event density in the Dalitz plot we determine {alpha}=-0.0301{+-}0.0035stat{sub -0.0035}{sup +0.0022}syst. The result is in agreement with recent measurements from hadro- and photo-production experiments.

  17. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  18. Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

    2017-11-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

  19. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off.

  20. Regional demand forecasting and simulation model: user's manual. Task 4, final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parhizgari, A M

    1978-09-25

    The Department of Energy's Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR) is an econometric and simulation system designed to estimate annual fuel-sector-region specific consumption of energy for the US. Its purposes are to (1) provide the demand side of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), (2) enhance our empirical insights into the structure of US energy demand, and (3) assist policymakers in their decisions on and formulations of various energy policies and/or scenarios. This report provides a self-contained user's manual for interpreting, utilizing, and implementing RDFOR simulation software packages. Chapters I and II present the theoretical structure and the simulation of RDFOR, respectively. Chapter III describes several potential scenarios which are (or have been) utilized in the RDFOR simulations. Chapter IV presents an overview of the complete software package utilized in simulation. Chapter V provides the detailed explanation and documentation of this package. The last chapter describes step-by-step implementation of the simulation package using the two scenarios detailed in Chapter III. The RDFOR model contains 14 fuels: gasoline, electricity, natural gas, distillate and residual fuels, liquid gases, jet fuel, coal, oil, petroleum products, asphalt, petroleum coke, metallurgical coal, and total fuels, spread over residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.

  1. Rare decays of neutral π and eta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poutissou, J.M.

    1983-09-01

    The decays of the pseudoscalar neutral mesons π degree and eta degree have provided a test of fundamental principles. The main branch, π degree → 2γ, was investigated in the late 60's in the context of current algebra and the decay rate calculated from the singular triangle diagram is in excellent agreement with experiment. Rare leptonic decays of the neutral pseudoscalar mesons are of interest because of the information they reveal about neutral currents or other exotic interactions between leptons and quarks. The author discusses recent information on the π degree → e + e - decay

  2. Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendt, P F [ed.

    1976-01-01

    Chapter titles include: introduction and overview; national and regional econometric models; growth and change in the Georgia regional economies; a Delphi approach to land use forecasting; land suitability and land use analysis; the interaction of transportation and land use; and, summary and conclusions. Lists of tables and figures are also included. (JGB)

  3. Early-transition-metal ketenimine complexes. Synthesis, reactivity, and structural characterization of complexes with. eta. sup 2 (C,N)-ketenimine groups bound to the halogenobis((trimethylsilyl)cyclopentadienyl)niobium unit. X-ray structure of Nb(. eta. sup 5 -C sub 5 H sub 4 SiMe sub 3 ) sub 2 Cl(. eta. sup 2 (C,N)-PhN double bond C double bond CPh sub 2 )

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antinolo, A.; Fajardo, M.; Lopez Mardomingo, C.; Otero, A. (Univ. de Alcala de Henares (Spain)); Mourad, Y.; Mugnier, Y. (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Dijon (France)); Sanz-Aparicio, J.; Fonseca, I.; Florencio, F. (CSIC, Madrid (Spain))

    1990-11-01

    The reaction of Nb({eta}{sup 5}-C{sub 5}H{sub 4}SiMe{sub 3}){sub 2}X (X = Cl, Br) with 1 equiv of various ketenimines, R{sup 1}N{double bond}C{double bond}CR{sup 2}R{sup 3}, leads to the niobium derivatives Nb({eta}{sup 5}-C{sub 5}H{sub 4}SiMe{sub 3}){sub 2}X({eta}{sup 2}(C,N)-R{sup 1}N{double bond}C{double bond}CR{sup 2}R{sup 3}) (1, X = Cl, R{sup 1} = R{sup 2} = R{sup 3} = C{sub 6}H{sub 5}; 2, X = Cl, R{sup 1} = p-CH{sub 3}-C{sub 6}H{sub 4}, R{sup 2} = R{sup 3} = C{sub 6}H{sub 5}; 3, X = Br, R{sup 1} = R{sup 2} = R{sup 3} = C{sub 6}H{sub 5}; 4, X = Br, R{sup 1} = p-CH{sub 3}-C{sub 6}H{sub 4}, R{sup 2} = R{sup 3} = C{sub 6}H{sub 5}; 5, X = Cl, R{sup 1} = R{sup 2} = C{sub 6}H{sub 5}, R{sup 3} = CH{sub 3}; 6, X = Br, R{sup 1} = R{sup 2} = C{sub 6}H{sub 5}, R{sup 3} = CH{sub 3}) with the expected ketenimine C{double bond}N bonding mode. Reduction of 1 with 1 equiv of Na/Hg gives the complex Nb({eta}{sup 5}-C{sub 5}H{sub 4}SiMe{sub 3}){sub 2}({eta}{sup 2}(C,N)-PhN{double bond}C{double bond}CPh{sub 2}) (9) as a paramagnetic compound. The reduction of 9 with 1 equiv of Na/Hg and the subsequent addition of a proton source (ethanol) leads to the iminoacyl compound Nb({eta}{sup 5}-C{sub 5}H{sub 4}SiMe{sub 3}){sub 2}(CRNR{sup 1}) (10, R = CH(Ph{sub 2}), R{sup 1} = Ph). The one- and two-electron reductions of 1 have been studied by cyclic voltammetry experiments. The structure of 1 was determined by single-crystal X-ray diffractometry: a = 24.4904 (14) {angstrom}, b = 11.0435 (04) {angstrom}, c = 26.6130 (15) {angstrom}, {beta} = 109.890 (5){degree}, monoclinic, space group C2/c, Z = 8, V = 6,768.4 (5) {angstrom}{sup 3}, {rho}{sub calcd} = 1.3194 g/mL, R = 0.048, R{sub w} = 0.060 based on 4,806 observed reflections. The structure contains a niobium atom bonded to two cyclopentadienyl rings in a {eta}{sup 5} fashion; the coordination of the metal is completed by a Cl atom and a {eta}{sup 2}(C,N)-bonded ketenimine ligand.

  4. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  5. System of the Wind Wave Operational Forecast by the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu.B. Ratner

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available System of the wind wave operational forecast in the Black Sea based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore numerical spectral model is represented. In the course of the system development the SWAN model was adapted to take into account the features of its operation at the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center. The model input-output is agreed with the applied nomenclature and the data representation formats. The user interface for rapid access to simulation results was developed. The model adapted to wave forecast in the Black Sea in a quasi-operational mode, is validated for 2012–2015. Validation of the calculation results was carried out for all five forecasting terms based on the analysis of two-dimensional graphs of the wave height distribution derived from the data of prognostic calculations and remote measurements obtained with the altimeter installed on the Jason-2 satellite. Calculation of the statistical characteristics of the deviations between the wave height prognostic values and the data of their measurements from the Jason-2 satellite, as well as a regression analysis of the relationship between the forecasted and measured wave heights was additionally carried out. A comparison of the results obtained with the similar results reported in the works of other authors published in 2009–2016 showed their satisfactory compliance with each other. The forecasts carried out by the authors for the Black Sea as well as those obtained for the other World Ocean regions show that the current level of numerical methods for sea wave forecasting is in full compliance with the requirements of specialists engaged in studying and modeling the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as the experts using these results for solving applied problems.

  6. Intra-Hour Dispatch and Automatic Generator Control Demonstration with Solar Forecasting - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coimbra, Carlos F. M. [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States

    2016-02-25

    In this project we address multiple resource integration challenges associated with increasing levels of solar penetration that arise from the variability and uncertainty in solar irradiance. We will model the SMUD service region as its own balancing region, and develop an integrated, real-time operational tool that takes solar-load forecast uncertainties into consideration and commits optimal energy resources and reserves for intra-hour and intra-day decisions. The primary objectives of this effort are to reduce power system operation cost by committing appropriate amount of energy resources and reserves, as well as to provide operators a prediction of the generation fleet’s behavior in real time for realistic PV penetration scenarios. The proposed methodology includes the following steps: clustering analysis on the expected solar variability per region for the SMUD system, Day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) load forecasts for the entire service areas, 1-year of intra-hour CPR forecasts for cluster centers, 1-year of smart re-forecasting CPR forecasts in real-time for determination of irreducible errors, and uncertainty quantification for integrated solar-load for both distributed and central stations (selected locations within service region) PV generation.

  7. Ventilation of ETA3-spaces in buildings. Part 2. Performance measurements of a smoking area for the Faculty of Architecture in the Delft University of Technology; Ventilatie van ETA3-ruimten in gebouwen. Deel 2. Prestatiemetingen van een rookserre voor de faculteit Bouwkunde van de TU Delft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronsema, B. [Faculteit Bouwkinde, Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Marra, J. [Philips Research, Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2006-10-15

    The European standard prEN 13779 (CEN 2004) distinguishes four classes of interior spaces in buildings focusing on air quality. The classes are named ETA1 to ETA4. Class ETA3 concerns spaces with a high level of air pollution due to emissions of water vapour, industrial process emissions, chemical pollutants, etc., which substantially impair the air quality. Part 2 considers the measurement of separation effectiveness and discusses measuring methods using particle sensors. The concept of TRIO concentration mentioned in part 1 is important in this connection. TRIO is a Dutch acronym meaning Environmental Tobacco Smoke, which serves as a criterion for separation effectiveness and ventilation effectiveness. The article then goes on to discuss the theory behind particle sensors, the measurement methods and the measurement results. Finally, the environmental tobacco smoke concentrations are assessed and related to particulate concentrations in reference situations. [Dutch] De Europese norm prEN 13779 (CEN 2004) onderscheidt voor verschillende ruimten in gebouwen vier klassen van afnemende luchtkwaliteit, ETA1 t/m ETA4. Klasse ETA3 staat voor ruimten met een hoge graad van luchtverontreiniging door emissie van vocht, processen, chemische verontreinigingen e.d., die de luchtkwaliteit substantieel verminderen. AIs voorbeelden worden genoemd toilet- en wasruimten, keukens, sommige chemische laboratoria, reproruimten, en speciaal ontworpen rookruimten. Ook warme restaurants en sommige werkplaatsen zouden tot deze klasse kunnen worden gerekend. Klasse ETA4 staat voor ruimten met een zeer hoge graad van luchlverontreiniging door geuren en verontreinigingen die schadelijk voor de gezondheid kunnen zijn. In dit deel 2 wordt de scheidingseffectiviteit in de praktijk gemeten en wordt ingegaan op meetmethodes met behulp van partikelsensoren. Belangrijk hierbij is het begrip TRIO concentratie dat in deel 1 is benoemd. TRIO staat voor TabaksRook In de Omgeving en wordt gebruikt als

  8. Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

  9. Observed versus simulated meteorological data: a comparison study for Centro Experimental Aramar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beu, Cássia Maria Leme, E-mail: cassia.beu@marinha.mil.br [Centro Tecnológico da Marinha em São Paulo (CEA/CTMSP), Iperó, SP (Brazil). Centro Experimental Aramar

    2017-07-01

    Centro Experimental Aramar (CEA) is a campus of the Centro Tecnológico da Marinha em São Paulo (CTMSP), responsible for carrying out the Brazilian Navy´s Nuclear Program. As a nuclear facility, the atmosphere is one of the environmental parameters that must be monitored, both for normal operation and accidental situations. Atmospheric dispersion models are powerful tools in this direction, but their results strongly depend of the quality of the input data. Therefore, good information must be provided to the dispersion models, and data from weather forecast models can be suitable for this role. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the performance of regional weather forecast models for CEA site. CEA is located at a complex terrain area, which can add complexity to the air fluxes and reduce the forecast accuracy, which may be critical during an accidental situation. For this work, two regional atmospheric models were chosen: BRAMS and Eta. These models have been intensively improved for Brazilian researchers for the South America characteristics, are free software and offer the possibility to run locally with higher resolution than are currently available by research organizations. Basic variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and direction) for 48 hours simulations from Eta and BRAMS were compared with CEA observed data. Results from this work will conducted the next steps for running dispersion atmospheric models on an operational basis for CEA site. (author)

  10. Observed versus simulated meteorological data: a comparison study for Centro Experimental Aramar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beu, Cássia Maria Leme

    2017-01-01

    Centro Experimental Aramar (CEA) is a campus of the Centro Tecnológico da Marinha em São Paulo (CTMSP), responsible for carrying out the Brazilian Navy´s Nuclear Program. As a nuclear facility, the atmosphere is one of the environmental parameters that must be monitored, both for normal operation and accidental situations. Atmospheric dispersion models are powerful tools in this direction, but their results strongly depend of the quality of the input data. Therefore, good information must be provided to the dispersion models, and data from weather forecast models can be suitable for this role. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the performance of regional weather forecast models for CEA site. CEA is located at a complex terrain area, which can add complexity to the air fluxes and reduce the forecast accuracy, which may be critical during an accidental situation. For this work, two regional atmospheric models were chosen: BRAMS and Eta. These models have been intensively improved for Brazilian researchers for the South America characteristics, are free software and offer the possibility to run locally with higher resolution than are currently available by research organizations. Basic variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and direction) for 48 hours simulations from Eta and BRAMS were compared with CEA observed data. Results from this work will conducted the next steps for running dispersion atmospheric models on an operational basis for CEA site. (author)

  11. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-08-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  12. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-01-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  13. Selective up-regulation of protein kinase C eta in phorbol ester-sensitive versus -resistant EL4 mouse thymoma cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnick, M S; Luo, X; Vinton, E G; Sando, J J

    1997-06-01

    Stimulation of sensitive EL4 mouse thymoma cells (s-EL4) with phorbol esters results in production of interleukin 2 (IL-2), adherence to a plastic substrate, and growth inhibition, whereas a phorbol ester-resistant variant (r-EL4) fails to respond. Previous studies revealed substantially decreased expression of protein kinase C (PKC) epsilon in the r-EL4 versus s-EL4 cells. This work has been extended to examine the more recently described PKC isozymes. Western and Northern analyses revealed a marked decrease in PKC eta and theta in r-EL4 as compared to s-EL4 cells. Treatment of these lines with phorbol ester for 24 h resulted in down-regulation of all PKC isozymes examined except PKC eta, which was up-regulated in the s-EL4 cells at the time of maximal IL-2 production. Two newly isolated EL4 clones, resistant to phorbol ester-induced growth inhibition but still exhibiting the phorbol ester-induced adherence and IL-2 production, both expressed PKC eta and theta. Collectively, these observations suggest a dissociation of growth inhibition from adherence and IL-2 production pathways and a potential role for PKC eta in the latter.

  14. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  15. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  16. China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yunshi; Teter, Jacob; Sperling, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year-roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others. - Highlights: → We use large, car-producing countries as models in forecasting vehicle ownership in China. → We find that vehicle growth rates in China could be twice as high as forecasted by others (including IEA). → Motorization is occurring quickly across all regions in China, not just the richer coastal areas.

  17. Observation of the $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\phi$ decay with the LHCb experiment

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00536869

    The interference between $B^0_s$ meson decay amplitudes to CP final state directly or via mixing gives rise to a measurable CP-violating phase $\\phi_s$, which is predicted to be $\\phi_s^{SM} = (-0.0370\\pm0.0006)~\\mathrm{rad}$ in the Standard Model. However, such process may receive contributions from New Physics and change the value of $\\phi_s$. At present, the most precise measurement of $\\phi_s$ is given by the LHCb experiment and the world average is $\\phi_s^{\\rm{exp}} = (-0.021\\pm 0.032)~\\mathrm{rad}$, with uncertainty still dominated by the statistics. In this context, a study of $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\phi$ decays is performed using $pp$ collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of~3.0\\,fb$^{-1}$, collected with the LHCb detector during the Run~1 of the LHC. The observation of the decay $B^0_s \\to \\eta_c \\phi$ is reported, where the $\\eta_c$ meson is reconstructed in the $p\\bar{p}$, $K^+K^-\\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\pi^+\\pi^-\\pi^+\\pi^-$ and $K^+K^-K^+K^-$ decay modes and the $\\phi(1020)$ in t...

  18. The new Met Office strategy for seasonal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewson, T. D.

    2012-04-01

    In October 2011 the Met Office began issuing a new-format UK seasonal forecast, called "The 3-month Outlook". Government interest in a UK-relevant product had been heightened by infrastructure issues arising during the severe cold of previous winters. At the same time there was evidence that the Met Office's "GLOSEA4" long range forecasting system exhibited some hindcast skill for the UK, that was comparable to its hindcast skill for the larger (and therefore less useful) 'northern Europe' region. Also, the NAO- and AO- signals prevailing in the previous two winters had been highlighted by the GLOSEA4 model well in advance. This presentation will initially give a brief overview of GLOSEA4, describing key features such as evolving sea-ice, a well-resolved stratosphere, and the perturbation strategy. Skill measures will be shown, along with forecasts for the last 3 winters. The new structure 3-month outlook will then be described and presented. Previously, our seasonal forecasts had been based on a tercile approach. The new format outlook aims to substantially improve upon this by illustrating graphically, and with text, the full range of possible outcomes, and by placing those outcomes in the context of climatology. In one key component the forecast pdfs (probability density functions) are displayed alongside climatological pdfs. To generate the forecast pdf we take the bias-corrected GLOSEA4 output (42 members), and then incorporate, via expert team, all other relevant information. Firstly model forecasts from other centres are examined. Then external 'forcing factors', such as solar, and the state of the land-ocean-ice system, are referenced, assessing how well the models represent their influence, and bringing in statistical relationships where appropriate. The expert team thereby decides upon any changes to the GLOSEA4 data, employing an interactive tool to shift, expand or contract the forecast pdfs accordingly. The full modification process will be illustrated

  19. Spatial forecast of landslides in three gorges based on spatial data mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianmin; Niu, Ruiqing

    2009-01-01

    The Three Gorges is a region with a very high landslide distribution density and a concentrated population. In Three Gorges there are often landslide disasters, and the potential risk of landslides is tremendous. In this paper, focusing on Three Gorges, which has a complicated landform, spatial forecasting of landslides is studied by establishing 20 forecast factors (spectra, texture, vegetation coverage, water level of reservoir, slope structure, engineering rock group, elevation, slope, aspect, etc). China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (Cbers) images were adopted based on C4.5 decision tree to mine spatial forecast landslide criteria in Guojiaba Town (Zhigui County) in Three Gorges and based on this knowledge, perform intelligent spatial landslide forecasts for Guojiaba Town. All landslides lie in the dangerous and unstable regions, so the forecast result is good. The method proposed in the paper is compared with seven other methods: IsoData, K-Means, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance, Parallelepiped and Information Content Model. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a high forecast precision, noticeably higher than that of the other seven methods.

  20. The production of {eta} and {omega} mesons in 3.5 GeV p+p interaction in HADES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teilab, Khaled

    2011-08-31

    The study of meson production in proton-proton collisions in the energy range up to one GeV above the production threshold provides valuable information about the nature of the nucleon-nucleon interaction. Theoretical models describe the interaction between nucleons via the exchange of mesons. In such models, different mechanisms contribute to the production of the mesons in nucleon-nucleon collisions. The measurement of total and differential production cross sections provide information which can help in determining the magnitude of the various mechanisms. Moreover, such cross section information serves as an input to the transport calculations which describe e.g. the production of e{sup +}e{sup -} pairs in proton- and pion-induced reactions as well as in heavy ion collisions. In this thesis, the production of {omega} and {eta} mesons in proton-proton collisions at 3.5 GeV beam energy was studied using the High Acceptance DiElectron Spectrometer (HADES) installed at the Schwerionensynchrotron (SIS 18) at the Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung in Darmstadt. About 80 000 {omega} mesons and 35 000 {eta} mesons were reconstructed. Total production cross sections of both mesons were determined. Furthermore, the collected statistics allowed for extracting angular distributions of both mesons as well as performing Dalitz plot studies. The {omega} and {eta} mesons were reconstructed via their decay into three pions ({pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}) in the exclusive reaction pp {yields} pp{pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0}. The charged particles were identified via their characteristic energy loss, via the measurement of their time of flight and momentum, or using kinematics. The neutral pion was reconstructed using the missing mass method. A kinematic fit was applied to improve the resolution and to select events in which a {pi}{sup 0} was produced. The correction of measured yields for the effects of spectrometer acceptance was done as a function of four

  1. Measurement of the CP violation parameter $|\\eta_{+−}|$ and the charge asymmetry in $K^{\\pm} \\rightarrow 3\\pi$ decays by NA48 and NA48/2

    CERN Document Server

    Winhart, A

    2007-01-01

    Throughout all periods of data taking, the main goal of the NA48 experiment has been the search for CP violation (CPV) in kaon decays. The observable $\\eta_{+−}$ links the parameters of indirect and direct CPV $(\\eta_{+−} = \\epsilon + \\epsilon^{\\prime})$ and is defined as the CP violating amplitude ratio of the neutral kaon decaying into two charged pions: $\\eta_{+−} = A(K_{L} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})/A(K_{S} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})$. NA48 has determined $|\\eta_{+−}|$ via the measurement of the ratio of decay rates $\\Gamma (K_{L} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})/\\Gamma(K_{L} \\rightarrow \\pi e\

  2. Handbook for Forecasters in the Mediterranean. Part 2. Regional Forecasting Aids for the Mediterranean Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    important role in modifying the poniente. Strong northwesterly flow crossing the Sierra Nevada (see Figure 1-1) causes a lee trough to develop along...the coast of southern France. *Comprises British forecast sea areas Lions, Unicorn , Bougie; see Figure lb in the Introduction. II-I 0) (1) C- C.0 CDC L...Alps are most important features insofar as they play a significant weather role in terms of planetary waves, cyclogenesis and fronts. 1 .2 SEASONAL

  3. Seasonal prediction for Southern Africa: Maximising the skill from forecast systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available /system development started in early 1990s ? SAWS, UCT, UP, Wits (statistical forecast systems) ? South African Long-Lead Forecast Forum ? SARCOF started in 1997 ? consensus through discussions ? Late 1990s ? started to use AGCMs and post-processing ? At SAWS... Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Reg6 Reg7 Reg8 Regions RO C ar ea s Below-Normal Near-Normal Above-Normal Operational Forecast Skill From CONSENSUS discussions Verification over 7 years of consensus forecast production New objective multi...

  4. Multiplicities of $\\pi^{0}$, $\\eta$, $K^{0}$ and of charged particles in quark and gluon jets

    CERN Document Server

    Abbiendi, G.; Ainsley, C.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Anderson, K.J.; Arcelli, S.; Asai, S.; Ashby, S.F.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Ball, A.H.; Barberio, E.; Barlow, Roger J.; Batley, J.R.; Baumann, S.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Bentvelsen, S.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Bloodworth, I.J.; Bock, P.; Bohme, J.; Boeriu, O.; Bonacorsi, D.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Bright-Thomas, P.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Burckhart, H.J.; Cammin, J.; Capiluppi, P.; Carnegie, R.K.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, David G.; Ciocca, C.; Clarke, P.E.L.; Clay, E.; Cohen, I.; Cooke, O.C.; Couchman, J.; Couyoumtzelis, C.; Coxe, R.L.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; Dallavalle, G.Marco; Dallison, S.; de Roeck, A.; Dervan, P.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Dixit, M.S.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Estabrooks, P.G.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Fanti, M.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Furtjes, A.; Futyan, D.I.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, J.W.; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Glenzinski, D.; Goldberg, J.; Grandi, C.; Graham, K.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Hajdu, C.; Hanson, G.G.; Hansroul, M.; Hapke, M.; Harder, K.; Harel, A.; Hargrove, C.K.; Harin-Dirac, M.; Hauke, A.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Hensel, C.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hildreth, M.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hocker, James Andrew; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Homer, R.J.; Honma, A.K.; Horvath, D.; Hossain, K.R.; Howard, R.; Huntemeyer, P.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jacob, F.R.; Jawahery, A.; Jeremie, H.; Jones, C.R.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karapetian, G.; Karlen, D.; Kartvelishvili, V.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kim, D.H.; Klein, K.; Klier, A.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Kokott, T.P.; Komamiya, S.; Kowalewski, Robert V.; Kress, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Kyberd, P.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Lawson, I.; Layter, J.G.; Leins, A.; Lellouch, D.; Letts, J.; Levinson, L.; Liebisch, R.; Lillich, J.; List, B.; Littlewood, C.; Lloyd, A.W.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Long, G.D.; Losty, M.J.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, J.; Macchiolo, A.; Macpherson, A.; Mader, W.; Mannelli, M.; Marcellini, S.; Marchant, T.E.; Martin, A.J.; Martin, J.P.; Martinez, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McDonald, W.John; McKenna, J.; McMahon, T.J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Mendez-Lorenzo, P.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Mohr, W.; Montanari, A.; Mori, T.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oakham, F.G.; Odorici, F.; Ogren, H.O.; Oh, A.; Okpara, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Patrick, G.N.; Patt, J.; Pfeifenschneider, P.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Polok, J.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rembser, C.; Rick, H.; Robins, S.A.; Rodning, N.; Roney, J.M.; Rosati, S.; Roscoe, K.; Rossi, A.M.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Runolfsson, O.; Rust, D.R.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sahr, O.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Sbarra, C.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schmitt, S.; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Schwick, C.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C.H.; Sherwood, P.; Siroli, G.P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Snow, G.A.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spagnolo, S.; Sproston, M.; Stahl, A.; Stephens, K.; Stoll, K.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Surrow, B.; Talbot, S.D.; Tarem, S.; Taylor, R.J.; Teuscher, R.; Thiergen, M.; Thomas, J.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Towers, S.; Trefzger, T.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Vannerem, P.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Waller, D.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wetterling, D.; White, J.S.; Wilson, G.W.; Wilson, J.A.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zacek, V.; Zer-Zion, D.

    2000-01-01

    We compared the multiplicities of pizero, eta, Kzero and of charged particles in quark and gluon jets in 3-jet events, as measured by the OPAL experiment at LEP. The comparisons were performed for distributions unfolded to 100% pure quark and gluon jets, at an effective scale Qjet which took into account topological dependences of the 3-jet environment. The ratio of particle multiplicity in gluon jets to that in quark jets as a function of Qjet for pizero, eta and Kzero was found to be independent of the particle species. This is consistent with the QCD prediction that the observed enhancement in the mean particle rate in gluon jets with respect to quark jets should be independent of particle species. In contrast to some theoretical predictions and previous observations, we observed no evidence for an enhancement of eta meson production in gluon jets with respect to quark jets, beyond that observed for charged particles. We measured the ratio of the slope of the average charged particle multiplicity in gluon ...

  5. Forecasting wheat and barley crop production in arid and semi-arid regions using remotely sensed primary productivity and crop phenology: A case study in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qader, Sarchil Hama; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

    2018-02-01

    Crop production and yield estimation using remotely sensed data have been studied widely, but such information is generally scarce in arid and semi-arid regions. In these regions, inter-annual variation in climatic factors (such as rainfall) combined with anthropogenic factors (such as civil war) pose major risks to food security. Thus, an operational crop production estimation and forecasting system is required to help decision-makers to make early estimates of potential food availability. Data from NASA's MODIS with official crop statistics were combined to develop an empirical regression-based model to forecast winter wheat and barley production in Iraq. The study explores remotely sensed indices representing crop productivity over the crop growing season to find the optimal correlation with crop production. The potential of three different remotely sensed indices, and information related to the phenology of crops, for forecasting crop production at the governorate level was tested and their results were validated using the leave-one-year-out approach. Despite testing several methodological approaches, and extensive spatio-temporal analysis, this paper depicts the difficulty in estimating crop yield on an annual base using current satellite low-resolution data. However, more precise estimates of crop production were possible. The result of the current research implies that the date of the maximum vegetation index (VI) offered the most accurate forecast of crop production with an average R 2 =0.70 compared to the date of MODIS EVI (Avg R 2 =0.68) and a NPP (Avg R 2 =0.66). When winter wheat and barley production were forecasted using NDVI, EVI and NPP and compared to official statistics, the relative error ranged from -20 to 20%, -45 to 28% and -48 to 22%, respectively. The research indicated that remotely sensed indices could characterize and forecast crop production more accurately than simple cropping area, which was treated as a null model against which to

  6. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  7. Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

    2015-01-01

    The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...

  8. Improving regional climate and hydrological forecasting following the record setting flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Seglenieks, F.; Bruxer, J.; Fortin, V.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the spring of 2017, water levels across Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River exceeded record high levels, leading to widespread flooding, damage to property, and controversy over regional dam operating protocols. Only a few years earlier, water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron (upstream of Lake Ontario) had dropped to record low levels leading to speculation that either anthropogenic controls or climate change were leading to chronic water loss from the Great Lakes. The contrast between low water level conditions across Earth's largest lake system from the late 1990s through 2013, and the rapid rise prior to the flooding in early 2017, underscores the challenges of quantifying and forecasting hydrologic impacts of rising regional air and water temperatures (and associated changes in lake evaporation) and persistent increases in long-term precipitation. Here, we assess the hydrologic conditions leading to the recent record flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system, with a particular emphasis on understanding the extent to which those conditions were consistent with observed and anticipated changes in historical and future climate, and the extent to which those conditions could have been anticipated through improvements in seasonal climate outlooks and hydrological forecasts.

  9. Double diffractive cross-section measurement in the forward region at LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Antchev, G.; Atanassov, I.; Baechler, J.; Avati, V.; Berardi, V.; Bossini, E.; Berretti, M.; Bottigli, U.; Bozzo, M.; Brucken, E.; Buzzo, A.; Cafagna, F.S.; Catanesi, M.G.; Csanad, M.; Csorgo, T.; Deile, M.; Eggert, K.; Eremin, V.; Ferro, F.; Fiergolski, A.; Garcia, F.; Giani, S.; Greco, V.; Grzanka, L.; Heino, J.; Hilden, T.; Karev, A.; Kaspar, J.; Kopal, J.; Kundrat, V.; Kurvinen, K.; Lami, S.; Latino, G.; Lauhakangas, R.; Leszko, T.; Lippmaa, E.; Lippmaa, J.; Lokajicek, M.; Losurdo, L.; Lo Vetere, M.; Lucas Rodriguez, F.; Macri, M.; Maki, T.; Mercadante, A.; Minafra, N.; Minutoli, S.; Nemes, F.; Niewiadomski, H.; Oliveri, E.; Orava, R.; Oljemark, F.; Oriunno, M.; Osterberg, K.; Palazzi, P.; Prochazka, J.; Quinto, M.; Radermacher, E.; Radicioni, E.; Ravotti, F.; Robutti, E.; Ropelewski, L.; Ruggiero, G.; Saarikko, H.; Scribano, A.; Smajek, J.; Snoeys, W.; Sziklai, J.; Taylor, C.; Turini, N.; Vacek, V.; Vitek, M.; Welti, J.; Whitmore, J.; Wyszkowski, P.

    2013-12-26

    The first double diffractive cross-section measurement in the very forward region has been carriedout by the TOTEM experiment at the LHC with center-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV. By utilizingthe very forward TOTEM tracking detectors T1 and T2, which extend up to pseudo rapidity |$\\eta$|=6.5, a clean sample of double diffractive pp events was extracted. From these events, we measured the cross-section $\\sigma_{DD}$ = (116±25) mb for events where both diffractive systems have 4.7 < |$\\eta$|$_{min}$ < 6.5.

  10. Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

    2018-07-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

  11. Eta products, BPS states and K3 surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Yang-Hui [Department of Mathematics, City University,London, EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom); School of Physics, NanKai University,Tianjin, 300071 (China); Merton College, University of Oxford,Oxford, OX14JD (United Kingdom); McKay, John [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Concordia University,1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd. West, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8 (Canada)

    2014-01-22

    Inspired by the multiplicative nature of the Ramanujan modular discriminant, Δ, we consider physical realizations of certain multiplicative products over the Dedekind eta-function in two parallel directions: the generating function of BPS states in certain heterotic orbifolds and elliptic K3 surfaces associated to congruence subgroups of the modular group. We show that they are, after string duality to type II, the same K3 surfaces admitting Nikulin automorphisms. In due course, we will present identities arising from q-expansions as well as relations to the sporadic Mathieu group M{sub 24}.

  12. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  13. Eta Carinae: A Demanding Mistress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gull, Theodore

    2012-01-01

    In the 1840's a southern star, Eta Argus, brightened to rival Sirius for nearly a decade, then faded. Today, we see the Homunculus, an hourglass figure with tutu, a dusty shell exceeding 12 solar masses expanding outward at 500 km/s. Many observers have systematically studied the massive binary total shrouded by interacting winds and its ejecta. More recently 3-D wind-wind collision models have begun to explain the extended structures resolved by Hubble Space Telescope. Now Herschel Space Observatory infrared scans are revealing wind interaction emissions and complex molecules left over from the dust that formed out of gas originally overabundant in nitrogen and greatly-depleted in oxygen and carbon. Many questions remain to be answered: What is the dust that formed in the 1840s event? What are the end states of the two massive companions ... SN, GRB, Hypernova? and When

  14. Encapsulation of a trinuclear silver(I) cluster by two imido-nitrido metalloligands [{Ti(eta5-C5Me5)(micro-NH)}3(micro3-N)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, Avelino; Martínez-Espada, Noelia; Mena, Miguel; Yélamos, Carlos

    2007-07-28

    Treatment of the metalloligand [{Ti(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))(micro-NH)}(3)(micro(3)-N)] with silver(i) trifluoromethanesulfonate in different molar ratios gives the ionic compounds [Ag{(micro(3)-NH)(3)Ti(3)(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))(3)(micro(3)-N)}(2)][O(3)SCF(3)] and [Ag{(micro(3)-NH)(3)Ti(3)(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))(3)(micro(3)-N)}][O(3)SCF(3)] or the triangular silver cluster [(CF(3)SO(2)O)(3)Ag(3){(micro(3)-NH)(3)Ti(3)(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))(3)(micro(3)-N)}(2)] in which each face is capped by a metalloligand.

  15. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

    2018-04-01

    This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

  16. Measurement of the decays psi'→etaJ/psi and psi'→π0J/psi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oreglia, M.; Bloom, E.; Bulos, F.; Chestnut, R.; Gaiser, J.; Godfrey, G.; Kiesling, C.; Partridge, R.; Peck, C.; Porter, F.; Kollmann, W.; Richardson, M.; Strauch, K.; Wacker, K.; Aschman, D.; Burnett, T.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Coyne, D.; Sadrozinski, H.; Hofstadter, R.; Kirkbride, I.; Kolanoski, H.; Liberman, A.; O'Reilly, J.; Tompkins, J.

    1980-01-01

    The Crystal Ball detector at SPEAR has been used to investigate the decays psi'→etaJ/psi and psi'→π 0 J/psi resulting from production of 776 000 psi'. Our measurement for the branching ratio of the eta mode is (2.18 +- 0.14 +- 0.35)%, where the first error results from statistics and acceptance uncertainties, and the second error is systematic; this is almost a factor of 2 smaller than found in early experiments. For the isospin-nonconserving π 0 mode, a branching ratio (0.09 +- 0.02 +- 0.01)% is obtained

  17. First measurement of the helicity-dependent (vector)({gamma})(vector)(p){yields}p{eta} differential cross-section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrens, J.; Arends, H.J.; Aulenbacher, K.; Beck, R.; Drechsel, D.; Harrach, D. van; Heid, E. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Universitaet Mainz, D-55099 Mainz (Germany); Altieri, S. [INFN, Sezione di Pavia, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); Dipartimento di Fisica Nucleare e Teorica, Universita di Pavia, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); Annand, J.R.M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom); Anton, G. [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, D-91058 Erlangen (Germany); Bradtke, C.; Goertz, S.; Harmsen, J. [Institut fuer Experimentalphysik, Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum, D-44801 Bochum (Germany); Braghieri, A. [INFN, Sezione di Pavia, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); d' Hose, N. [CEA Saclay, DSM/DAPNIA/SPhN, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Dutz, H. [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Bonn, D-53115 Bonn (Germany); Grabmayr, P. [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Tuebingen, D-72076 Tuebingen (Germany); Hansen, K. [Department of Physics, University of Lund, Lund (Sweden); Hasegawa, S. [Department of Physics, Nagoya University, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya (Japan); Hasegawa, T. [Faculty of Engineering, Miyazaki University, Miyazaki (Japan); Helbing, K.; Holvoet, H.; Van Hoorebeke, L.; Horikawa, N.; Iwata, T.; Jahn, O.; Jennewein, P.; Kageya, T.; Kiel, B.; Klein, F.; Kondratiev, R.; Kossert, K.; Krimmer, J.; Lang, M.; Lannoy, B.; Leukel, R.; Lisin, V.; Matsuda, T.; McGeorge, J.C.; Meier, A.; Menze, D.; Meyer, W.; Michel, T.; Naumann, J.; Panzeri, A.; Pedroni, P.; Pinelli, T.; Preobrajenski, I.; Radtke, E.; Reichert, E.; Reicherz, G.; Rohlof, Ch.; Rosner, G.; Ryckbosch, D.; Sauer, M.; Schoch, B.; Schumacher, M.; Seitz, B.; Speckner, T.; Takabayashi, N.; Tamas, G.; Thomas, A.; Van de Vyver, R.; Wakai, A.; Weihofen, W.; Wissmann, F.; Zapadtka, F.; Zeitler, G.

    2003-06-01

    The helicity dependence of the (vector)({gamma})(vector)(p){yields}p{eta} reaction has been measured for the first time at a center-of-mass angle {theta}{sup *}{sub {eta}}=70 in the photon energy range from 780 MeV to 790 MeV. The experiment, performed at the Mainz microtron MAMI, used a 4{pi}-detector system, a circularly polarized, tagged photon beam, and a longitudinally polarized frozen-spin target. The helicity 3/2 cross-section is found to be small and the results for helicity 1/2 agree with predictions from the MAID analysis. (orig.)

  18. Neutral pion and $\\eta$ meson production in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$=0.9 TeV and $\\sqrt{s}$=7 TeV

    CERN Document Server

    Abelev, B.; Adamova, D.; Adare, A.M.; Aggarwal, M.M.; Aglieri Rinella, G.; Agocs, A.G.; Agostinelli, A.; Aguilar Salazar, S.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahmad, N.; Masoodi, A.Ahmad; Ahn, S.U.; Akindinov, A.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Molina, R.Alfaro; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz Avina, E.; Alt, T.; Altini, V.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anson, C.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshauser, H.; Arbor, N.; Arcelli, S.; Arend, A.; Armesto, N.; Arnaldi, R.; Aronsson, T.; Arsene, I.C.; Arslandok, M.; Asryan, A.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Awes, T.C.; Aysto, J.; Azmi, M.D.; Bach, M.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y.W.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Ferroli, R.Baldini; Baldisseri, A.; Baldit, A.; Baltasar Dos Santos Pedrosa, F.; Ban, J.; Baral, R.C.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoldi, G.G.; Barnby, L.S.; Barret, V.; Bartke, J.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Batyunya, B.; Baumann, C.; Bearden, I.G.; Beck, H.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bergmann, C.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhati, A.K.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Blanco, F.; Blanco, F.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Boccioli, M.; Bock, F.; Bock, N.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Bogolyubsky, M.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Bortolin, C.; Bose, S.; Bossu, F.; Botje, M.; Bottger, S.; Boyer, B.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broz, M.; Brun, R.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G.E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Bugaiev, K.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Canoa Roman, V.; Cara Romeo, G.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carlin Filho, N.; Carminati, F.; Carrillo Montoya, C.A.; Casanova Diaz, A.; Caselle, M.; Castillo Castellanos, J.; Castillo Hernandez, J.F.; Casula, E.A.R.; Catanescu, V.; Cavicchioli, C.; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Charvet, J.L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Chiavassa, E.; Chibante Barroso, V.; Chinellato, D.D.; Chochula, P.; Chojnacki, M.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C.H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Chung, S.U.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Coccetti, F.; Coffin, J.P.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Conesa Balbastre, G.; Conesa del Valle, Z.; Constantin, P.; Contin, G.; Contreras, J.G.; Cormier, T.M.; Corrales Morales, Y.; Cortese, P.; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cosentino, M.R.; Costa, F.; Cotallo, M.E.; Crescio, E.; Crochet, P.; Alaniz, E.Cruz; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dainese, A.; Dalsgaard, H.H.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, K.; Das, D.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Azevedo Moregula, A.; de Barros, G.O.V.; De Caro, A.; De Cataldo, G.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; Delagrange, H.; Del Castillo Sanchez, E.; Deloff, A.; Demanov, V.; De Marco, N.; Denes, E.; De Pasquale, S.; Deppman, A.; Erasmo, G.D.; de Rooij, R.; Di Bari, D.; Dietel, T.; Di Giglio, C.; Di Liberto, S.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Dobrowolski, T.; Dominguez, I.; Donigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Driga, O.; Dubey, A.K.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Dutta Majumdar, M.R.; Dutta Majumdar, A.K.; Elia, D.; Emschermann, D.; Engel, H.; Erdal, H.A.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Evans, D.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Falchieri, D.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Fearick, R.; Fedunov, A.; Fehlker, D.; Feldkamp, L.; Felea, D.; Feofilov, G.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferretti, A.; Ferretti, R.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M.A.S.; Filchagin, S.; Fini, R.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F.M.; Fiore, E.M.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Fragkiadakis, M.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Fusco Girard, M.; Gaardhoje, J.J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D.R.; Ganoti, P.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Garishvili, I.; Gerhard, J.; Germain, M.; Geuna, C.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Ghidini, B.; Ghosh, P.; Gianotti, P.; Girard, M.R.; Giubellino, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glassel, P.; Gomez, R.; Ferreiro, E.G.; Gonzalez-Trueba, L.H.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goswami, A.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Graczykowski, L.K.; Grajcarek, R.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gros, P.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J.F.; Grossiord, J.Y.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerra Gutierrez, C.; Guerzoni, B.; Guilbaud, M.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, R.; Gutbrod, H.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Han, B.H.; Hanratty, L.D.; Hansen, A.; Harmanova, Z.; Harris, J.W.; Hartig, M.; Hasegan, D.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayrapetyan, A.; Heckel, S.T.; Heide, M.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Herrmann, N.; Hetland, K.F.; Hicks, B.; Hille, P.T.; Hippolyte, B.; Horaguchi, T.; Hori, Y.; Hristov, P.; Hrivnacova, I.; Huang, M.; Huber, S.; Humanic, T.J.; Hwang, D.S.; Ichou, R.; Ilkaev, R.; Ilkiv, I.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Innocenti, P.G.; Innocenti, G.M.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivan, C.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Ivanov, A.; Ivanytskyi, O.; Jacholkowski, A.; Jacobs, P.M.; Jancurova, L.; Jang, H.J.; Jangal, S.; Janik, R.; Janik, M.A.; Jayarathna, P.H.S.Y.; Jena, S.; Jimenez Bustamante, R.T.; Jirden, L.; Jones, P.G.; Jung, W.; Jung, H.; Jusko, A.; Kaidalov, A.B.; Kakoyan, V.; Kalcher, S.; Kalinak, P.; Kalisky, M.; Kalliokoski, T.; Kalweit, A.; Kanaki, K.; Kang, J.H.; Kaplin, V.; Karasu Uysal, A.; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karpechev, E.; Kazantsev, A.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Khan, P.; Khan, M.M.; Khan, S.A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, J.H.; Kim, D.J.; Kim, D.W.; Kim, J.S.; Kim, M.; Kim, S.H.; Kim, S.; Kim, B.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Klay, J.L.; Klein, J.; Klein-Bosing, C.; Kliemant, M.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M.L.; Koch, K.; Kohler, M.K.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Konevskikh, A.; Korneev, A.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Kour, R.; Kowalski, M.; Kox, S.; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, G.; Kral, J.; Kralik, I.; Kramer, F.; Kraus, I.; Krawutschke, T.; Kretz, M.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Krus, M.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kucheriaev, Y.; Kuhn, C.; Kuijer, P.G.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.B.; Kurepin, A.; Kuryakin, A.; Kushpil, S.; Kushpil, V.; Kvaerno, H.; Kweon, M.J.; Kwon, Y.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; La Rocca, P.; Lazzeroni, C.; Lea, R.; Le Bornec, Y.; Lee, S.C.; Lee, K.S.; Lefevre, F.; Lehnert, J.; Leistam, L.; Lenhardt, M.; Lenti, V.; Leon, H.; Leon Monzon, I.; Leon Vargas, H.; Levai, P.; Li, X.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M.A.; Liu, L.; Loenne, P.I.; Loggins, V.R.; Loginov, V.; Lohn, S.; Lohner, D.; Loizides, C.; Loo, K.K.; Lopez, X.; Lopez Torres, E.; Lovhoiden, G.; Lu, X.G.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luo, J.; Luparello, G.; Luquin, L.; Luzzi, C.; Ma, R.; Ma, K.; Madagodahettige-Don, D.M.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahapatra, D.P.; Maire, A.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manceau, L.; Mangotra, L.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Mao, Y.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G.V.; Margotti, A.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Martashvili, I.; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M.I.; Martinez Davalos, A.; Martinez Garcia, G.; Martynov, Y.; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Massacrier, L.; Mastromarco, M.; Mastroserio, A.; Matthews, Z.L.; Matyja, A.; Mayani, D.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M.A.; Meddi, F.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Mercado Perez, J.; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Michalon, A.; Midori, J.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A.N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitu, C.; Mlynarz, J.; Mohanty, A.K.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Monteno, M.; Montes, E.; Moon, T.; Morando, M.; Moreira De Godoy, D.A.; Moretto, S.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muhuri, S.; Muller, H.; Munhoz, M.G.; Musa, L.; Musso, A.; Nandi, B.K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Nattrass, C.; Naumov, N.P.; Navin, S.; Nayak, T.K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nazarov, G.; Nedosekin, A.; Nicassio, M.; Nielsen, B.S.; Niida, T.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikolic, V.; Nikulin, V.; Nikulin, S.; Nilsen, B.S.; Nilsson, M.S.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Novitzky, N.; Nyanin, A.; Nyatha, A.; Nygaard, C.; Nystrand, J.; Obayashi, H.; Ochirov, A.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.K.; Oh, S.; Oleniacz, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Ortona, G.; Oskarsson, A.; Ostrowski, P.; Otterlund, I.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozawa, K.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pachr, M.; Padilla, F.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Painke, F.; Pajares, C.; Pal, S.; Pal, S.K.; Palaha, A.; Palmeri, A.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G.S.; Park, W.J.; Passfeld, A.; Pastircak, B.; Patalakha, D.I.; Paticchio, V.; Pavlinov, A.; Pawlak, T.; Peitzmann, T.; Perales, M.; Pereira De Oliveira Filho, E.; Peresunko, D.; Perez Lara, C.E.; Perez Lezama, E.; Perini, D.; Perrino, D.; Peryt, W.; Pesci, A.; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petran, M.; Petris, M.; Petrov, P.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Piccotti, A.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Pitz, N.; Piuz, F.; Piyarathna, D.B.; Ploskon, M.; Pluta, J.; Pocheptsov, T.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P.L.M.; Poghosyan, M.G.; Polak, K.; Polichtchouk, B.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Pospisil, V.; Potukuchi, B.; Prasad, S.K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C.A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puchagin, S.; Puddu, G.; Pulvirenti, A.; Punin, V.; Putis, M.; Putschke, J.; Quercigh, E.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Rademakers, A.; Radomski, S.; Raiha, T.S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Ramirez Reyes, A.; Raniwala, S.; Raniwala, R.; Rasanen, S.S.; Rascanu, B.T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K.F.; Real, J.S.; Redlich, K.; Reichelt, P.; Reicher, M.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A.R.; Reshetin, A.; Rettig, F.; Revol, J.P.; Reygers, K.; Riccati, L.; Ricci, R.A.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Rohr, D.; Rohrich, D.; Romita, R.; Ronchetti, F.; Rosnet, P.; Rossegger, S.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, P.; Roy, C.; Rubio Montero, A.J.; Rui, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Rybicki, A.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahu, P.K.; Saini, J.; Sakaguchi, H.; Sakai, S.; Sakata, D.; Salgado, C.A.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sanchez Castro, X.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sano, S.; Santo, R.; Santoro, R.; Sarkamo, J.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Scharenberg, R.P.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H.R.; Schreiner, S.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Scott, P.A.; Segato, G.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senyukov, S.; Seo, J.; Serci, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Sgura, I.; Shabetai, A.; Shabratova, G.; Shahoyan, R.; Sharma, N.; Sharma, S.; Shigaki, K.; Shimomura, M.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siciliano, M.; Sicking, E.; Siddhanta, S.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Sinha, B.C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T.B.; Skjerdal, K.; Smakal, R.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R.; Sogaard, C.; Soltz, R.; Son, H.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Soos, C.; Soramel, F.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Srivastava, B.K.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stefanek, G.; Stefanini, G.; Steinbeck, T.; Steinpreis, M.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stocco, D.; Stolpovskiy, M.; Strabykin, K.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A.A.P.; Subieta Vasquez, M.A.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Sukhorukov, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Susa, T.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szostak, A.; Tagridis, C.; Takahashi, J.; J.Tapia Takaki, D.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terrevoli, C.; Thader, J.; Thomas, J.H.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A.R.; Tlusty, D.; Toia, A.; Torii, H.; Toscano, L.; Tosello, F.; Traczyk, T.; Truesdale, D.; Trzaska, W.H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T.S.; Ulery, J.; Ullaland, K.; Ulrich, J.; Uras, A.; Urban, J.; Urciuoli, G.M.; Usai, G.L.; Vajzer, M.; Vala, M.; Valencia Palomo, L.; Vallero, S.; van der Kolk, N.; Vande Vyvre, P.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vannucci, L.; Vargas, A.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veldhoen, M.; Venaruzzo, M.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara, S.; Vernekohl, D.C.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Vikhlyantsev, O.; Vilakazi, Z.; Villalobos Baillie, O.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Vinogradov, A.; Virgili, T.; Viyogi, Y.P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voloshin, S.; Voloshin, K.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vranic, D.; Ovrebekk, G.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Vyushin, A.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, V.; Wan, R.; Wang, Y.; Wang, M.; Wang, D.; Wang, Y.; Watanabe, K.; Wessels, J.P.; Westerhoff, U.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilde, M.; Wilk, G.; Wilk, A.; Williams, M.C.S.; Windelband, B.; Karampatsos, L.Xaplanteris; Yang, H.; Yang, S.; Yano, S.; Yasnopolskiy, S.; Yi, J.; Yin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I.K.; Yoon, J.; Yu, W.; Yuan, X.; Yushmanov, I.; Zach, C.; Zampolli, C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zelnicek, P.; Zgura, I.S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, X.; Zhou, F.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, D.; Zhu, X.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zinovjev, G.; Zoccarato, Y.; Zynovyev, M.

    2013-07-16

    The first measurements of the invariant differential cross sections of inclusive $\\pi^0$ and $\\eta$ meson production at mid-rapidity in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=0.9$ TeV and $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV are reported. The $\\pi^0$ measurement covers the ranges $0.4eta$ mesons was measured at $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV in the range $0.4eta$ mesons at $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV, but agree with the measured $\\eta/\\pi^0$ ratio at $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV.

  19. Spectrophotometric, colorimetric and visually detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa ETA gene based gold nanoparticles DNA probe and endonuclease enzyme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, Bahram; Kamali, Mehdi; Salouti, Mojtaba; Yaghmaei, Parichehreh

    2018-06-01

    Colorimetric DNA detection is preferred over other methods for clinical molecular diagnosis because it does not require expensive equipment. In the present study, the colorimetric method based on gold nanoparticles (GNPs) and endonuclease enzyme was used for the detection of P. aeruginosa ETA gene. Firstly, the primers and probe for P. aeruginosa exotoxin A (ETA) gene were designed and checked for specificity by the PCR method. Then, GNPs were synthesized using the citrate reduction method and conjugated with the prepared probe to develop the new nano-biosensor. Next, the extracted target DNA of the bacteria was added to GNP-probe complex to check its efficacy for P. aeruginosa ETA gene diagnosis. A decrease in absorbance was seen when GNP-probe-target DNA cleaved into the small fragments of BamHI endonuclease due to the weakened electrostatic interaction between GNPs and the shortened DNA. The right shift of the absorbance peak from 530 to 562 nm occurred after adding the endonuclease. It was measured using a UV-VIS absorption spectroscopy that indicates the existence of the P. aeruginosa ETA gene. Sensitivity was determined in the presence of different concentrations of target DNA of P. aeruginosa. The results obtained from the optimized conditions showed that the absorbance value has linear correlation with concentration of target DNA (R: 0.9850) in the range of 10-50 ng mL-1 with the limit detection of 9.899 ng mL-1. Thus, the specificity of the new method for detection of P. aeruginosa was established in comparison with other bacteria. Additionally, the designed assay was quantitatively applied to detect the P. aeruginosa ETA gene from 103 to 108 CFU mL-1 in real samples with a detection limit of 320 CFU mL-1.

  20. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  1. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  2. Stoichiometric and X-ray diffraction analysis on the γ2→eta' transformation in a dispersant phase silver amalgam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, S.J.; Joergensen, K.D.

    1981-01-01

    Phase composition of an amalgam prepared from a two-particle alloy was determined over a 2-year period by X-ray diffraction. The γ 2 -content decreased from 3.6% to 0.3%, and eta' increased from 3.9% to 10.0%. These alterations in phase content agreed with stoichiometric calculations performed on the basis of the solid state reaction: γ 2 +Ag/Cu→eta'+γ 1 . (author)

  3. Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2014-02-27

    To support large-scale integration of wind power into electric energy systems, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should be able to provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient, reliable, and cost-effective scheduling of wind power. Here, we incorporate space-time wind forecasts into electric power system scheduling. First, we propose a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed forecasting model that allows the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons, hence avoiding a subjective choice of regimes. Then, results from the wind forecasts are incorporated into a power system economic dispatch model, the cost of which is used as a loss measure of the quality of the forecast models. This, in turn, leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation. Potential economic benefits arise from the system-wide generation of cost savings and from the ancillary service cost savings. We illustrate the economic benefits using a test system in the northwest region of the United States. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, our model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars annually in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Pacific northwest. © 2014 Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa.

  4. Evaluating dynamic covariance matrix forecasting and portfolio optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Sendstad, Lars Hegnes; Holten, Dag Martin

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis we have evaluated the covariance forecasting ability of the simple moving average, the exponential moving average and the dynamic conditional correlation models. Overall we found that a dynamic portfolio can gain significant improvements by implementing a multivariate GARCH forecast. We further divided the global investment universe into sectors and regions in order to investigate the relative portfolio performance of several asset allocation strategies with both variance and c...

  5. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  6. MSSM Forecast for the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Cabrera, Maria Eugenia; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz

    2009-01-01

    We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental i...

  7. The ETA-II linear induction accelerator and IMP wiggler: A high-average-power millimeter-wave free-electron-laser for plasma heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, S.L.; Scharlemann, E.T.

    1992-05-01

    We have constructed a 140-GHz free-electron laser to generate high-average-power microwaves for heating the MTX tokamak plasma. A 5.5-m steady-state wiggler (intense Microwave Prototype-IMP) has been installed at the end of the upgraded 60-cell ETA-II accelerator, and is configured as an FEL amplifier for the output of a 140-GHz long-pulse gyrotron. Improvements in the ETA-II accelerator include a multicable-feed power distribution network, better magnetic alignment using a stretched-wire alignment technique (SWAT). and a computerized tuning algorithm that directly minimizes the transverse sweep (corkscrew motion) of the electron beam. The upgrades were first tested on the 20-cell, 3-MeV front end of ETA-II and resulted in greatly improved energy flatness and reduced corkscrew motion. The upgrades were then incorporated into the full 60-cell configuration of ETA-II, along with modifications to allow operation in 50-pulse bursts at pulse repetition frequencies up to 5 kHz. The pulse power modifications were developed and tested on the High Average Power Test Stand (HAPTS), and have significantly reduced the voltage and timing jitter of the MAG 1D magnetic pulse compressors. The 2-3 kA. 6-7 MeV beam from ETA-II is transported to the IMP wiggler, which has been reconfigured as a laced wiggler, with both permanent magnets and electromagnets, for high magnetic field operation. Tapering of the wiggler magnetic field is completely computer controlled and can be optimized based on the output power. The microwaves from the FEL are transmitted to the MTX tokamak by a windowless quasi-optical microwave transmission system. Experiments at MTX are focused on studies of electron-cyclotron-resonance heating (ECRH) of the plasma. We summarize here the accelerator and pulse power modifications, and describe the status of ETA-II, IMP, and MTX operations

  8. The ETA-II linear induction accelerator and IMP wiggler: A high-average-power millimeter-wave free-electron laser for plasma heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, S.L.; Scharlemann, E.T.

    1993-01-01

    The authors have constructed a 140-GHz free-electron laser to generate high-average-power microwaves for heating the MTX tokamak plasma. A 5.5-m steady-state wiggler (Intense Microwave, Prototype-IMP) has been installed at the end of the upgraded 60-cell ETA-II accelerator, and is configured as an FEL amplifier for the output of a 140-GHz long-pulse gyrotron. Improvements in the ETA-II accelerator include a multicable-feed power distribution network, better magnetic alignment using a stretched-wire alignment technique (SWAT), and a computerized tuning algorithm that directly minimizes the transverse sweep (corkscrew motion) of the electron beam. The upgrades were first tested on the 20-cell, 3-MeV front end of ETA-II and resulted in greatly improved energy flatness and reduced corkscrew motion. The upgrades were then incorporated into the full 60-cell configuration of ETA-II, along with modifications to allow operation in 50-pulse bursts at pulse repetition frequencies up to 5 kHz. The pulse power modifications were developed and tested on the High Average Power Test Stand (HAPTS), and have significantly reduced the voltage and timing jitter of the MAG 1D magnetic pulse compressors. The 2-3 kA, 6-7 MeV beam from ETA-II is transported to the IMP wiggler, which has been reconfigured as a laced wiggler, with both permanent magnets and electromagnets, for high magnetic field operation. Tapering of the wiggler magnetic field is completely computer controlled and can be optimized based on the output power. The microwaves from the FEL are transmitted to the MTX tokamak by a windowless quasi-optical microwave transmission system. Experiments at MTX are focused on studies of electron-cyclotron-resonance heating (ECRH) of the plasma. The authors summarize here the accelerator and pulse power modifications, and describe the status of ETA-II, IMP, and MTX operations

  9. Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiferl, Luke D.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Case, Jonathan L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs

  10. Evidence for the decay $B^0 \\to J/\\psi \\omega$ and measurement of the relative branching fractions of $B^0_s$ meson decays to $J/\\psi \\eta$ and $J/\\psi \\eta'$

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, R; Adametz, A; Adeva, B; Adinolfi, M; Adrover, C; Affolder, A; Ajaltouni, Z; Albrecht, J; Alessio, F; Alexander, M; Ali, S; Alkhazov, G; Alvarez Cartelle, P; Alves Jr, A A; Amato, S; Amhis, Y; Anderlini, L; Anderson, J; Appleby, R B; Aquines Gutierrez, O; Archilli, F; Artamonov, A; Artuso, M; Aslanides, E; Auriemma, G; Bachmann, S; Back, J J; Baesso, C; Balagura, V; Baldini, W; Barlow, R J; Barschel, C; Barsuk, S; Barter, W; Bates, A; Bauer, Th; Bay, A; Beddow, J; Bediaga, I; Belogurov, S; Belous, K; Belyaev, I; Ben-Haim, E; Benayoun, M; Bencivenni, G; Benson, S; Benton, J; Berezhnoy, A; Bernet, R; Bettler, M -O; van Beuzekom, M; Bien, A; Bifani, S; Bird, T; Bizzeti, A; Bjørnstad, P M; Blake, T; Blanc, F; Blanks, C; Blouw, J; Blusk, S; Bobrov, A; Bocci, V; Bondar, A; Bondar, N; Bonivento, W; Borghi, S; Borgia, A; Bowcock, T J V; Bozzi, C; Brambach, T; van den Brand, J; Bressieux, J; Brett, D; Britsch, M; Britton, T; Brook, N H; Brown, H; Büchler-Germann, A; Burducea, I; Bursche, A; Buytaert, J; Cadeddu, S; Callot, O; Calvi, M; Calvo Gomez, M; Camboni, A; Campana, P; Carbone, A; Carboni, G; Cardinale, R; Cardini, A; Carson, L; Carvalho Akiba, K; Casse, G; Cattaneo, M; Cauet, Ch; Charles, M; Charpentier, Ph; Chen, P; Chiapolini, N; Chrzaszcz, M; Ciba, K; Cid Vidal, X; Ciezarek, G; Clarke, P E L; Clemencic, M; Cliff, H V; Closier, J; Coca, C; Coco, V; Cogan, J; Cogneras, E; Collins, P; Comerma-Montells, A; Contu, A; Cook, A; Coombes, M; Corti, G; Couturier, B; Cowan, G A; Craik, D; Cunliffe, S; Currie, R; D'Ambrosio, C; David, P; David, P N Y; De Bonis, I; De Bruyn, K; De Capua, S; De Cian, M; De Miranda, J M; De Paula, L; De Simone, P; Decamp, D; Deckenhoff, M; Degaudenzi, H; Del Buono, L; Deplano, C; Derkach, D; Deschamps, O; Dettori, F; Dickens, J; Dijkstra, H; Diniz Batista, P; Domingo Bonal, F; Donleavy, S; Dordei, F; Dosil Suárez, A; Dossett, D; Dovbnya, A; Dupertuis, F; Dzhelyadin, R; Dziurda, A; Dzyuba, A; Easo, S; Egede, U; Egorychev, V; Eidelman, S; van Eijk, D; Eisele, F; Eisenhardt, S; Ekelhof, R; Eklund, L; El Rifai, I; Elsasser, Ch; Elsby, D; Esperante Pereira, D; Falabella, A; Färber, C; Fardell, G; Farinelli, C; Farry, S; Fave, V; Fernandez Albor, V; Ferreira Rodrigues, F; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Filippov, S; Fitzpatrick, C; Fontana, M; Fontanelli, F; Forty, R; Francisco, O; Frank, M; Frei, C; Frosini, M; Furcas, S; Gallas Torreira, A; Galli, D; Gandelman, M; Gandini, P; Gao, Y; Garnier, J-C; Garofoli, J; Garra Tico, J; Garrido, L; Gaspar, C; Gauld, R; Gersabeck, E; Gersabeck, M; Gershon, T; Ghez, Ph; Gibson, V; Gligorov, V V; Göbel, C; Golubkov, D; Golutvin, A; Gomes, A; Gordon, H; Grabalosa Gándara, M; Graciani Diaz, R; Granado Cardoso, L A; Graugés, E; Graziani, G; Grecu, A; Greening, E; Gregson, S; Grünberg, O; Gui, B; Gushchin, E; Guz, Yu; Gys, T; Hadjivasiliou, C; Haefeli, G; Haen, C; Haines, S C; Hall, S; Hampson, T; Hansmann-Menzemer, S; Harnew, N; Harnew, S T; Harrison, J; Harrison, P F; Hartmann, T; He, J; Heijne, V; Hennessy, K; Henrard, P; Hernando Morata, J A; van Herwijnen, E; Hicks, E; Hill, D; Hoballah, M; Hopchev, P; Hulsbergen, W; Hunt, P; Huse, T; Hussain, N; Huston, R S; Hutchcroft, D; Hynds, D; Iakovenko, V; Ilten, P; Imong, J; Jacobsson, R; Jaeger, A; Jahjah Hussein, M; Jans, E; Jansen, F; Jaton, P; Jean-Marie, B; Jing, F; John, M; Johnson, D; Jones, C R; Jost, B; Kaballo, M; Kandybei, S; Karacson, M; Karbach, M; Keaveney, J; Kenyon, I R; Kerzel, U; Ketel, T; Keune, A; Khanji, B; Kim, Y M; Kochebina, O; Komarov, I; Komarov, V; Koopman, R F; Koppenburg, P; Korolev, M; Kozlinskiy, A; Kravchuk, L; Kreplin, K; Kreps, M; Krocker, G; Krokovny, P; Kruse, F; Kucharczyk, M; Kudryavtsev, V; Kvaratskheliya, T; La Thi, V N; Lacarrere, D; Lafferty, G; Lai, A; Lambert, D; Lambert, R W; Lanciotti, E; Lanfranchi, G; Langenbruch, C; Latham, T; Lazzeroni, C; Le Gac, R; van Leerdam, J; Lees, J -P; Lefèvre, R; Leflat, A; Lefrançois, J; Leroy, O; Lesiak, T; Li, L; Li, Y; Li Gioi, L; Liles, M; Lindner, R; Linn, C; Liu, B; Liu, G; von Loeben, J; Lopes, J H; Lopez Asamar, E; Lopez-March, N; Lu, H; Luisier, J; Mac Raighne, A; Machefert, F; Machikhiliyan, I V; Maciuc, F; Maev, O; Magnin, J; Maino, M; Malde, S; Manca, G; Mancinelli, G; Mangiafave, N; Marconi, U; Märki, R; Marks, J; Martellotti, G; Martens, A; Martin, L; Martín Sánchez, A; Martinelli, M; Martinez Santos, D; Massafferri, A; Mathe, Z; Matteuzzi, C; Matveev, M; Maurice, E; Mazurov, A; McCarthy, J; McGregor, G; McNulty, R; Meissner, M; Merk, M; Merkel, J; Milanes, D A; Minard, M -N; Molina Rodriguez, J; Monteil, S; Moran, D; Morawski, P; Mountain, R; Mous, I; Muheim, F; Müller, K; Muresan, R; Muryn, B; Muster, B; Mylroie-Smith, J; Naik, P; Nakada, T; Nandakumar, R; Nasteva, I; Needham, M; Neufeld, N; Nguyen, A D; Nguyen-Mau, C; Nicol, M; Niess, V; Nikitin, N; Nikodem, T; Nomerotski, A; Novoselov, A; Oblakowska-Mucha, A; Obraztsov, V; Oggero, S; Ogilvy, S; Okhrimenko, O; Oldeman, R; Orlandea, M; Otalora Goicochea, J M; Owen, P; Pal, B K; Palano, A; Palutan, M; Panman, J; Papanestis, A; Pappagallo, M; Parkes, C; Parkinson, C J; Passaleva, G; Patel, G D; Patel, M; Patrick, G N; Patrignani, C; Pavel-Nicorescu, C; Pazos Alvarez, A; Pellegrino, A; Penso, G; Pepe Altarelli, M; Perazzini, S; Perego, D L; Perez Trigo, E; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A; Perret, P; Perrin-Terrin, M; Pessina, G; Petridis, K; Petrolini, A; Phan, A; Picatoste Olloqui, E; Pie Valls, B; Pietrzyk, B; Pilař, T; Pinci, D; Playfer, S; Plo Casasus, M; Polci, F; Polok, G; Poluektov, A; Polycarpo, E; Popov, D; Popovici, B; Potterat, C; Powell, A; Prisciandaro, J; Pugatch, V; Puig Navarro, A; Qian, W; Rademacker, J H; Rakotomiaramanana, B; Rangel, M S; Raniuk, I; Rauschmayr, N; Raven, G; Redford, S; Reid, M M; dos Reis, A C; Ricciardi, S; Richards, A; Rinnert, K; Rives Molina, V; Roa Romero, D A; Robbe, P; Rodrigues, E; Rodriguez Perez, P; Rogers, G J; Roiser, S; Romanovsky, V; Romero Vidal, A; Rouvinet, J; Ruf, T; Ruiz, H; Sabatino, G; Saborido Silva, J J; Sagidova, N; Sail, P; Saitta, B; Salzmann, C; Sanmartin Sedes, B; Sannino, M; Santacesaria, R; Santamarina Rios, C; Santinelli, R; Santovetti, E; Sapunov, M; Sarti, A; Satriano, C; Satta, A; Savrie, M; Savrina, D; Schaack, P; Schiller, M; Schindler, H; Schleich, S; Schlupp, M; Schmelling, M; Schmidt, B; Schneider, O; Schopper, A; Schune, M -H; Schwemmer, R; Sciascia, B; Sciubba, A; Seco, M; Semennikov, A; Senderowska, K; Sepp, I; Serra, N; Serrano, J; Seyfert, P; Shapkin, M; Shapoval, I; Shatalov, P; Shcheglov, Y; Shears, T; Shekhtman, L; Shevchenko, O; Shevchenko, V; Shires, A; Silva Coutinho, R; Skwarnicki, T; Smith, N A; Smith, E; Smith, M; Sobczak, K; Soler, F J P; Solomin, A; Soomro, F; Souza, D; Souza De Paula, B; Spaan, B; Sparkes, A; Spradlin, P; Stagni, F; Stahl, S; Steinkamp, O; Stoica, S; Stone, S; Storaci, B; Straticiuc, M; Straumann, U; Subbiah, V K; Swientek, S; Szczekowski, M; Szczypka, P; Szumlak, T; T'Jampens, S; Teklishyn, M; Teodorescu, E; Teubert, F; Thomas, C; Thomas, E; van Tilburg, J; Tisserand, V; Tobin, M; Tolk, S; Topp-Joergensen, S; Torr, N; Tournefier, E; Tourneur, S; Tran, M T; Tsaregorodtsev, A; Tuning, N; Ubeda Garcia, M; Ukleja, A; Urner, D; Uwer, U; Vagnoni, V; Valenti, G; Vazquez Gomez, R; Vazquez Regueiro, P; Vecchi, S; Velthuis, J J; Veltri, M; Veneziano, G; Vesterinen, M; Viaud, B; Videau, I; Vieira, D; Vilasis-Cardona, X; Visniakov, J; Vollhardt, A; Volyanskyy, D; Voong, D; Vorobyev, A; Vorobyev, V; Voss, H; Voß, C; Waldi, R; Wallace, R; Wandernoth, S; Wang, J; Ward, D R; Watson, N K; Webber, A D; Websdale, D; Whitehead, M; Wicht, J; Wiedner, D; Wiggers, L; Wilkinson, G; Williams, M P; Williams, M; Wilson, F F; Wishahi, J; Witek, M; Witzeling, W; Wotton, S A; Wright, S; Wu, S; Wyllie, K; Xie, Y; Xing, F; Xing, Z; Yang, Z; Young, R; Yuan, X; Yushchenko, O; Zangoli, M; Zavertyaev, M; Zhang, F; Zhang, L; Zhang, W C; Zhang, Y; Zhelezov, A; Zhong, L; Zvyagin, A

    2013-01-01

    First evidence of the $\\mathrm{B}^0\\to J/\\psi\\omega$ decay is found and the $\\mathrm{B}_{s}^0\\to J/\\psi\\eta$ and $\\mathrm{B}_{s}^0\\to J/\\psi\\eta^{\\prime}$ decays are studied using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0~$\\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of $\\sqrt{s} = 7$~TeV. The branching fractions of these decays are measured relative to that of the $\\mathrm{B}^0\\to J/\\psi\\rho^0$ decay: %The following ratios are measured \\begin{equation} \\begin{array}{lll} \\frac{\\mathcal{B}(\\mathrm{B}^0\\to J/\\psi\\omega)}{\\mathcal{B}(\\mathrm{B}^0\\to J/\\psi\\rho^0)} $=$ \\:0.89 \\pm0.19\\,(\\mathrm{stat})\\,^{+0.07}_{-0.13}\\,(\\mathrm{syst}),\

  11. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  12. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  13. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  14. Medium-Range Air Quality Forecast During the Beijing Olympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Smith, J.; Wang, Z.; Luo, L.; Wu, Q.

    2008-12-01

    Prior to the XXIX Olympiad in Beijing, air quality was a major concern for many athletes and visitors to the Games. In response to the need for enhanced air quality forecasts, we explored and tested the capability of medium-range air quality forecasting in a multimodel ensemble system. The system consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF-Chem), the Fifth-Generation NCAR/PennState Mesoscale Model (MM5), and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). Both MM5 and NAQPMS have been in operational use to produce short-term air quality forecasts. WRFChem is the major addition to the multimodel system. Forced with the forecast from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GENS) at the lateral boundary, the multimodel system makes ensemble air quality forecasts out to 16 days with emission scenarios that reflect measures for the Olympics, including the closing down of factories around the city and beyond, a traffic control program that reduced the number of automobiles around the city by about half and elimination of all construction activities. Analyses of two forecasts are presented in this study. They were made on 5 August 2008 and 8 August 2008, both covering the entire Olympic period. Each forecast consists of three ensemble members that were produced with the same regional model but were forced by the control and two 'extremes' of the GENS forecast. The two extreme members were hand-picked to represent the best and worst case scenarios. The forecasts are evaluated with observations taken during the Olympic Games that include satellite observations, in-situ meteorological stations, LIDAR and air quality observations at the IAP tower site, 1 km away from the 'Bird Nest'. The analyses show good model skill in the first 3 days and generally satisfactory after 96 hours, with a successful forecast of potential pollution episode on 20 August 2008. The challenge

  15. Using ensemble forecasting for wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.

    2003-07-01

    Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and

  16. Forecasting of Currency Crises in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Young Song

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have developed a forecasting system for currency crisis in East Asia based on a signaling approach. Our system uses 15 monthly indicators of five East Asian countries including Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand that were severely hit by the currency crisis in 1997. We investigate the performance of the system through deploying out-of-sample forecasting for the periods both before and after the 1997 East Asian currency crisis. Unlike the existing research based on the signaling approach, our out-of-sample forecasting does not fix the in-sample period. The out-of-sample forecasting between July 1995 and June 1997 shows that prior to breakout of the crisis, several indicators including real exchange rates and exports sent frequent warnings to all crisis-hit East Asian countries except the Philippines. This may indicate that a signaling-based early warning system for currency crisis could have been an useful method of forecasting the East Asian crisis. On the other hand, we also find that our forecasting system often generates warning signals during the out-of-sample period between July 1999 and June 2001. Since we have not observed any currency crisis in this region after 1998, these are all false alarms, indicating that our system may be seriously exposed to the type II error. We can, however, mitigate this problem if we adjust the optimal critical values of indicators depending on the preferences of forecasting system manager.

  17. Spatial Forecast of Landslides in Three Gorges Based On Spatial Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianmin Wang

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges is a region with a very high landslide distribution density and a concentrated population. In Three Gorges there are often landslide disasters, and the potential risk of landslides is tremendous. In this paper, focusing on Three Gorges, which has a complicated landform, spatial forecasting of landslides is studied by establishing 20 forecast factors (spectra, texture, vegetation coverage, water level of reservoir, slope structure, engineering rock group, elevation, slope, aspect, etc. China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (Cbers images were adopted based on C4.5 decision tree to mine spatial forecast landslide criteria in Guojiaba Town (Zhigui County in Three Gorges and based on this knowledge, perform intelligent spatial landslide forecasts for Guojiaba Town. All landslides lie in the dangerous and unstable regions, so the forecast result is good. The method proposed in the paper is compared with seven other methods: IsoData, K-Means, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance, Parallelepiped and Information Content Model. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a high forecast precision, noticeably higher than that of the other seven methods.

  18. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  19. Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ziehmann

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

  20. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...