WorldWideScience

Sample records for eta regional forecast

  1. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  2. Avaliação do modelo regional eta utilizando as análises do CPTEC e NCEP Evaluation of the eta regional model using the analysis of CPTEC and NCEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rildo Gonçalves de Moura

    2010-03-01

    evaluated the forecasts of precipitation and mean sea level pressure for the period up to 120 hours, using the mean error (ME and the root mean squared error (RMSE from December 2007 to February 2008. The used model was the ETA (40 km, with two separate entries of data, the analysis of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS (ETA-I and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP (ETA-II. The results showed, for both tests, a trend of overestimation (positive values of average error of precipitation on the Northern Region of Brazil, mainly for the 24 hours forecast. Considering the mean sea level pressure (MSLP, it was clearly seen that the ETA-I, whose values of pressure are very close to observed, provides better results compared to the ETA-II, especially during the first hours of integration.

  3. A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J.

    2017-01-01

    We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as

  4. Magnetic eta index and the ability to forecast sporadic E layer appearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak-Jankowska, Beata; Stanislawska, Iwona; Pozoga, Mariusz; Tomasik, Lukasz; Ernst, Tomasz

    2012-07-01

    We analysed the correlation of the changes of the magnetic vertical component with the ionospheric deviations from monthly median of the E layer characteristics. Promising results indicate that the eta parameter can be used to predict sporadic E layer during magnetically quiet days. Our previous work concern the data from only one year - 2004. During the descending phase of solar cycle in 2004 there was not numerous amount of quiet days. We extend our research to other years starting from 1996 and focusing on 2007 - 2009, years of the prolonged solar minimum. The analysis shows that under magnetically quiet circumstances the magnetic index eta indicates large magnetic disturbance, especially in vertical component when other magnetic indices inform about quiet magnetic conditions. The results indicate that the increase of the magnetic eta index (the ratio of the variations of vertical component of the external magnetic field to the horizontal component) is associated with the emergence of sporadic E layer or with increase of foEs critical frequency of sporadic E layer. The appearance of sporadic E layer followed 1-2 h after growth of magnetic index eta. An important conclusion is that the analysis of the hourly ionospheric data does not give 100% correlation between the increase of eta and the emergence of Es layer, however, studies of dense measurement data show that the correlation is almost 100%. An advantage of the eta index is the fact that after eliminating the effect of currents induced within the Earth, eta index bring independent and meaningful information on the system of current in the ionosphere. Hence, the eta index could be an important element of the ionosphere monitoring and can be used to predict such local phenomenon like the appearance of the sporadic E layer.

  5. Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

    2006-10-01

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.

  6. 20 CFR 658.420 - Establishment of JS complaint system at the ETA regional office.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Establishment of JS complaint system at the... Complaint System Federal Js Complaint System § 658.420 Establishment of JS complaint system at the ETA regional office. (a) Each Regional Administrator shall establish and maintain a JS complaint system at the...

  7. Short-range ensemble predictions based on convection perturbations in the Eta Model for the Serra do Mar region in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, J. F. F.; Chou, S. C.; Gomes, J. L.

    2009-04-01

    The Southeast Brazil, in the coastal and mountain region called Serra do Mar, between Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, is subject to frequent events of landslides and floods. The Eta Model has been producing good quality forecasts over South America at about 40-km horizontal resolution. For that type of hazards, however, more detailed and probabilistic information on the risks should be provided with the forecasts. Thus, a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) based on the Eta Model is being constructed. Ensemble members derived from perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions did not provide enough spread for the forecasts. Members with model physics perturbation are being included and tested. The objective of this work is to construct more members for the Eta SREPS by adding physics perturbed members. The Eta Model is configured at 10-km resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. The domain covered is most of Southeast Brazil, centered over the Serra do Mar region. The constructed members comprise variations of the cumulus parameterization Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes. Three members were constructed from the BMJ scheme by varying the deficit of saturation pressure profile over land and sea, and 2 members of the KF scheme were included using the standard KF and a momentum flux added to KF scheme version. One of the runs with BMJ scheme is the control run as it was used for the initial condition perturbation SREPS. The forecasts were tested for 6 cases of South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) events. The SACZ is a common summer season feature of Southern Hemisphere that causes persistent rain for a few days over the Southeast Brazil and it frequently organizes over Serra do Mar region. These events are particularly interesting because of the persistent rains that can accumulate large amounts and cause generalized landslides and death. With respect to precipitation, the KF scheme versions have shown to be able to reach the

  8. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  9. 20 CFR 658.603 - ETA regional office responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... program budget plan; (3) The effect which economic conditions and other external factors considered by the... ESA and OSHA farmworker specialists in the region and, to the extent necessary, shall establish...

  10. Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancang Zhuang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

  11. A Search for EGRET/Radio Pulsars in the ETA Carina Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Our analysis of EGRET data for the radio pulsar PSR B1046-58, which lies it the Eta Carina region of the Galaxy, was highly successful, resulting in the discovery of strong evidence for gamma-ray pulsations from this source. This work was published in the Astrophysical Journal. Additional support for the association was published in a companion paper in which an analysis of the X-ray counterpart to PSR B1046-58 was done, and we showed that it was the only possible counterpart to the gamma ray source within the EGRET error box.

  12. Beam test results of CMS RPCs at high eta region under high-radiation environment

    CERN Document Server

    Park, S; Bahk, S Y; Hong, B; Hong, S J; Kang, D H; Kang, T I; Kim, T J; Kim, Y J; Kim, Y U; Koo, D G; Lee, H W; Lee, K S; Lee, S J; Lim, J K; Moon, D H; Nam, S K; Oh, J K; Park, W J; Rhee, J T; Ryu, M S; Shim, H H; Sim, K S

    2004-01-01

    The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) forward resistivity plate chambers (RPCs) at the high eta region must be operated in presence of a radiation-induced rate as high as 1 kHz/cm**2. It is still unknown if the RPCs coated with linseed oil can be operated under such a high- radiation environment over the lifetime of CMS. Non-oiled RPCs may be one of the options since phenolic or melamine-coated bakelite is chemically stabler than linseed oil. We have constructed oiled and non-oiled RPCs at the high eta region of CMS using phenolic bakelite and tested them in the Gamma Irradiation Facility at CERN. While both RPCs show the same characteristics in the efficiency and the strip multiplicity, the non-oiled RPC generates an intrinsic noise rate of 50 Hz/cm**2, compared to only 5 Hz/cm**2 for the oiled RPC, both at 10.0kV which is about 100 V above the 95% knee of the efficiency curve.

  13. Beam test results of CMS RPCs at high eta region under high-radiation environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S.; Ahn, S.H.; Bahk, S.Y.; Hong, B.; Hong, S.J.; Kang, D.H.; Kang, T.I.; Kim, T.J.; Kim, Y.J.; Kim, Y.U.; Koo, D.G.; Lee, H.W.; Lee, K.S.; Lee, S.J.; Lim, J.K.; Moon, D.H.; Nam, S.K.; Oh, J.K.; Park, W.J.; Rhee, J.T.; Ryu, M.S.; Shim, H.H.; Sim, K.S.

    2004-01-01

    The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) forward resistivity plate chambers (RPCs) at the high eta region must be operated in presence of a radiation-induced rate as high as 1kHz/cm2. It is still unknown if the RPCs coated with linseed oil can be operated under such a high-radiation environment over the lifetime of CMS. Non-oiled RPCs may be one of the options since phenolic or melamine-coated bakelite is chemically stabler than linseed oil. We have constructed oiled and non-oiled RPCs at the high eta region of CMS using phenolic bakelite and tested them in the Gamma Irradiation Facility at CERN. While both RPCs show the same characteristics in the efficiency and the strip multiplicity, the non-oiled RPC generates an intrinsic noise rate of 50Hz/cm2, compared to only 5Hz/cm2 for the oiled RPC, both at 10.0kV which is about 100V above the 95% knee of the efficiency curve

  14. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  15. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  18. DETECTION OF GAMMA-RAY EMISSION FROM THE ETA-CARINAE REGION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tavani, M.; Viotti, R. F.; Argan, A.; Cocco, V.; D'Ammando, F.; Costa, E.; Sabatini, S.; Pian, E.; Bulgarelli, A.; Caraveo, P.; Giuliani, A.; Vercellone, S.; Mereghetti, S.; Chen, A. W.; Corcoran, M. F.; Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Boffelli, F.; Cattaneo, P. W.

    2009-01-01

    We present the results of extensive observations by the gamma-ray AGILE satellite of the Galactic region hosting the Carina nebula and the remarkable colliding wind binary Eta Carinae (η Car) during the period 2007 July-2009 January. We detect a gamma-ray source (1AGL J1043-5931) consistent with the position of η Car. If 1AGL J1043-5931 is associated with the Car system, our data provide the long sought first detection above 100 MeV of a colliding wind binary. The average gamma-ray flux above 100 MeV and integrated over the preperiastron period 2007 July-2008 October is F γ = (37 ± 5) x 10 -8 ph cm -2 s -1 corresponding to an average gamma-ray luminosity of L γ = 3.4 x 10 34 erg s -1 for a distance of 2.3 kpc. We also report a two-day gamma-ray flaring episode of 1AGL J1043-5931 on 2008 October 11-13 possibly related to a transient acceleration and radiation episode of the strongly variable shock in the system.

  19. Hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems in forecasting regional electricity loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pai, Ping-Feng [Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 1 University Road, Puli, Nantou 545, Taiwan (China)

    2006-09-15

    Because of the privatization of electricity in many countries, load forecasting has become one of the most crucial issues in the planning and operations of electric utilities. In addition, accurate regional load forecasting can provide the transmission and distribution operators with more information. The hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system was originally designed to solve control and pattern recognition problems. The main objective of this investigation is to develop a hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system for time series forecasting (HEFST) and apply the proposed model to forecast regional electricity loads in Taiwan. Additionally, a scaled conjugate gradient learning method is employed in the supervised learning phase of the HEFST model. Subsequently, numerical data taken from the existing literature is used to demonstrate the forecasting performance of the HEFST model. Simulation results reveal that the proposed model has better forecasting performance than the artificial neural network model and the regression model. Thus, the HEFST model is a valid and promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

  20. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  1. Physics with ETA mesons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Lon-chang.

    1989-01-01

    Since the advent of pion factories, an impressive amount of information about the nuclear dynamics of the Δ(1232) pion- nucleon resonance has been obtained. The study of this isospin-3/2 resonance has greatly benefited from the fact that π/sup /minus//n and π + p systems are pure I = 3/2 states, which couple only to the Δ in the resonance region. Such isospin selectivity of the pion does not exist, however, for the I = 1/2 N* resonances because it is not possible to form a pure I = 1/2 state with a pion and a nucleon. Eta mesons have zero isospin. Consequently, the /eta/N systems are in a pure I = 1/2 state, and /eta/ can be used to tag those N* resonances to which it strongly couples. We will briefly review the πN interaction from the threshold region to c.m. energy √s ≅1600 MeV. We shall see how improved πN data can help the study of πN interactions. I shall discuss what new information about the hadronic interaction can be learned from the study of eta production in pp collisions. The behavior of eta meson in nuclei will be discussed. The interesting question of the quark structure of /eta/(549) and /eta/'(958) will also be discussed within the framework of a simple model. 19 refs., 13 figs

  2. Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often...... at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...... PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records....

  3. Eta Carinae: Linelist for the Emission Spectrum of the Weigelt Blobs in the 1700-10400Angstrom Wavelength Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zethson, T.; Johansson, S.; Hartman, H.; Gull, T. R.

    2011-01-01

    Aims. We present line identifications in the 1700 to 10400A region for the Weigelt Blobs B and D, located 0.1 to 0.3" NNW of Eta Carinae. The aim of this work is to characterize the behavior of these luminous, dense gas condensations in response to the broad maximum and short minimum states of Eta Carinae during its 5.54-year spectroscopic period. Methods. The observations were carried out during March 1998, the minimum spectrum, and in February 1999, early maximum spectrum, with the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) from 1640 to 10400A using the 52"x0.1" aperture centered on Eta Carinae at position angle -28 degrees. Extractions of the reduced spectrum centered on Weigelt B and D, 0.28: in length along the slit, were used to identify the narrow, nebular emission lines, measure their wavelengths and estimate their fluxes. Results. A linelist of 1500 lines is presented for the maximum and minimum states of combined Weigelt blobs B and D. The spectra are dominated by emission lines from the iron-group elements, but include lines from lighter elements. They include parity permitted and forbidden lines. A number of lines are fluorescent lines pumped by H Ly alpha. Other lines show anomalous excitation.

  4. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  5. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  6. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

  7. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  8. Phylogenetic relations of humans and African apes from DNA sequences in the Psi eta-globin region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyamoto, M.M.; Slightom, J.L.; Goodman, M.

    1987-10-16

    Sequences from the upstream and downstream flanking DNA regions of the Psi eta-globin locus in Pan troglodytes (common chimpanzee), Gorilla gorilla (gorilla), and Pongo pygmaeus (orangutan, the closest living relative to Homo, Pan, and Gorilla) provided further data for evaluating the phylogenetic relations of humans and African apes. These newly sequenced orthologs (an additional 4.9 kilobase pairs (kbp) for each species) were combined with published Psi eta-gene sequences and then compared to the same orthologous stretch (a continuous 7.1-kbp region) available for humans. Phylogenetic analysis of these nucleotide sequences by the parsimony method indicated (i) that human and chimpanzee are more closely related to each other than either is to gorilla and (ii) that the slowdown in the rate of sequence evolution evident in higher primates is especially pronounced in humans. These results indicate that features unique to African apes (but not to humans) are primitive and that even local molecular clocks should be applied with caution.

  9. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

  10. Regional corrections and checking the reliability of geomagnetic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'eva, V.I.; Shevnin, A.D.

    1978-01-01

    Regional corrections of the K index mark estimate with respect to the Moskva observatory are reviewed in order to improve the short-range forecast of the geomagnetic activity and to promote it within the aqua area. The forecasts of the storms of all categories and weak perturbations have been verified for the predominant days in the catalogue of the magnetic storms family. It is shown that the adopted methods of forecasts yield considerably good results for weak perturbations as well as for weak and moderate magnetic storms. Strong and very strong storms are less predictable

  11. Pollen Dispersion Forecast At Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangin, A.; Asthma Forecast System Team

    The forecast of the pollen concentration is generally based on an identification of sim- ilar coincidence of measured pollen at given points and meteorological data that is searched in an archive and which, with the help of experts, allows building a predicted value. This may be classified under the family of statistical approaches for forecast- ing. While palynologists make these methods more and more accurate with the help of innovative techniques of regression against empirical rules and/or evolving mathe- matical structures (e.g. neural networks), the spatial dispersion of the pollen is not or poorly considered, mainly because it requires a lot of means and technique that are not familiar to this scientific discipline. The research on pollen forecasts are presently mainly focused on the problematic of modeling the behavior of pollen trends and sea- sons at one location regardless of the topography, the locations of emitters, the relative strengths of emitter, in one word the Sspatial backgroundT. This research work was a & cedil;successful attempt to go a step further combining this SlocalT approach with a trans- & cedil;port/dispersion modeling allowing the access to mapping of concentration. The areas of interest that were selected for the demonstration of feasibility were 200x200km zones centered on Cordoba, Barcelona and Bologna and four pollen types were ex- amined, namely: Cupressaceae, Olea europaea, Poaceae and Parietaria. At the end of this three-year European project in December 2001, the system was fully deployed and validated. The multidisciplinary team will present the original methodologies that were derived for modeling the numerous aspects of this problem and also some con- clusions regarding potential extent to other areas and taxa.

  12. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  13. He II {lambda}4686 IN {eta} CARINAE: COLLAPSE OF THE WIND-WIND COLLISION REGION DURING PERIASTRON PASSAGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A. [Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Rua do Matao 1226, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo 05508-900 (Brazil); Arias, J. I. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de La Serena, Av. Cisternas 1200 Norte, La Serena (Chile); De Araujo, F. X.; Borges Fernandes, M.; Pereira, C. B. [Observatorio Nacional, Rua General Jose Cristino 77, Sao Cristovao, Rio de Janeiro 20921-400 (Brazil); Barba, R. H.; Gonzalez, J. F. [Instituto de Ciencias Astronomicas, de la Tierra, y del Espacio (ICATE-CONICET), Avenida Espana Sur 1512, J5402DSP San Juan (Argentina); Corcoran, M. F. [CRESST and X-ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Gamen, R. C.; Solivella, G. R. [Facultad de Ciencias Astronomicas y Geofisicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Paseo del Bosque s/n, La Plata, BA, B1900FWA (Argentina); Fraga, L. [Southern Observatory for Astrophysical Research, Colina El Pino s/n, Casilla 603, La Serena (Chile); Groh, J. H. [Max-Planck-Institute fuer Radioastronomie, Auf dem Huegel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Marshall, J. L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843-4242 (United States); McGregor, P. J.; Nicholls, D. C.; Parkin, E. R. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics (RSAA), Mount Stromlo Observatory, Cotter Road, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Morrell, N.; Phillips, M. M., E-mail: mairan@astro.iag.usp.br [Las Campanas Observatory, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, Casilla 601, La Serena (Chile); and others

    2012-02-10

    The periodic spectroscopic events in {eta} Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of {eta} Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II {lambda}4686 emission line (L {approx} 310 L{sub Sun }) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II {lambda}4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II {lambda}4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the 'surface' of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

  14. He II lambda-4686 in Eta Carinae: Collapse of the Wind-Wind Collision Region During Periastron Passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A.; Arias, J. I.; DeAraujo, F. X.; Barba, R. H.; Corcoran, M. F.; Fernandes, M. Borges; Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Fraga, L.; Gamen, R. C.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The periodic spectroscopic events in Eta Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events we performed a dense monitoring of Eta Carinae with 5 Southern telescopes during the 2009 low excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II lambda-4686 emission line (L approx 310 solar L) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the wind-wind collision (WWC) region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II lambda-4686 light-curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II lambda-4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

  15. ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostyslav Lytvyn

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

  18. Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Skøien

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For many years, meteorological models have been run with perturbated initial conditions or parameters to produce ensemble forecasts that are used as a proxy of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, the ensembles are usually both biased (the mean is systematically too high or too low, compared with the observed weather, and has dispersion errors (the ensemble variance indicates a too low or too high confidence in the forecast, compared with the observed weather. The ensembles are therefore commonly post-processed to correct for these shortcomings. Here we look at one of these techniques, referred to as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS (Gneiting et al., 2005. Originally, the post-processing parameters were identified as a fixed set of parameters for a region. The application of our work is the European Flood Awareness System (http://www.efas.eu, where a distributed model is run with meteorological ensembles as input. We are therefore dealing with a considerably larger data set than previous analyses. We also want to regionalize the parameters themselves for other locations than the calibration gauges. The post-processing parameters are therefore estimated for each calibration station, but with a spatial penalty for deviations from neighbouring stations, depending on the expected semivariance between the calibration catchment and these stations. The estimated post-processed parameters can then be used for regionalization of the postprocessing parameters also for uncalibrated locations using top-kriging in the rtop-package (Skøien et al., 2006, 2014. We will show results from cross-validation of the methodology and although our interest is mainly in identifying exceedance probabilities for certain return levels, we will also show how the rtop package can be used for creating a set of post-processed ensembles through simulations.

  19. Construction of the migration flows forecasting into Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Aleksandrovich Tarasyev

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a dynamic model that can predict the dynamics of migration flows between source countries and host regions, as well as the dynamics of wage levels there. The model is constructed within the framework of neoclassical economics and human capital theory in continuous time. Thanks to liberalization of migration policy in Russia in 2007, the model could be successfully employed to Russian regions and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS, which have visa-free entry regulations with the Russian Federation. Employing the model on statistical data, we forecast the number and origin composition of foreign labor force from the CIS into Russian regions for 2010-2016. The purpose of our further research is to classify migrants by skills

  20. Eta mesons in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.C.

    1987-01-01

    The possibility of producing eta-mesic nuclei by the use of pions is discussed. If these nuclei are observed experimentally, then the binding energies of the eta in this new nuclear matter can be used to extract accurately the eta-N-N* coupling constant in a nucleus. The framework for these calculations is the coupled channel isobar model

  1. Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according

  2. Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, L.-C.; Pan, M.-C.

    2008-01-01

    Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads

  3. Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Li-Chih [Department of Marketing Management, Central Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 11, Pu-tzu Lane, Peitun, Taichung City 406 (China); Pan, Mei-Chiu [Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Nanhua University, 32, Chung Keng Li, Dalin, Chiayi 622 (China)

    2008-02-15

    Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

  4. Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korkmaz Seher

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning, forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011. Methods Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. Results The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs. Conclusions The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate

  5. Study of etaπ+π- states in the rho'(1600) mass region photoproduced in the reaction γp->etaπ+π-p at photon energies of 20 to 70 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, M.; Davenport, M.; Flower, P.; Hutton, J.S.; Kumar, B.R.; Morris, J.A.G.; Morris, J.V.; Sharp, P.H.

    1986-01-01

    In diffractive photoproduction of etaπ + π - , the two-body substates etarho 0 and A 2 π are found to contribute significantly to the cross-section for etaπ + π masses below 2.4 GeV. From a spin-parity analysis the branching ratio, rho'(1600) -> etarho/rho'(1600) -> all, is determined to be 2 π component shows an enhacement around 1.7GeV. The spin-parity analysis indicates a probable contribution to this signal from exclusive photoproduction of the g(1690). (orig.)

  6. Searches for B0 Decays to eta K0, eta eta,eta' eta', eta phi, and eta'phi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2006-07-31

    The authors search for B{sup 0} meson decays into two-body combinations of K{sup 0}, {eta}, {eta}', and {phi} mesons in 324 million B{bar B} pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e{sup +}e{sup -} collider at SLAC. They measure the following branching fractions (upper limits at 90% confidence level) in units of 10{sup -6}: {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K{sup 0}) = 1.8{sub -0.6}{sup +0.7} {+-} 0.1 (< 2.9), {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{eta}) = 1.1{sub -0.4}{sup +0.5} {+-} 0.1(< 1.8), {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{phi}) = 0.1 {+-} 0.2 {+-} 0.1(< 0.6), {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{phi}) = 0.2{sub -0.3}{sup +0.4} {+-} 0.1(< 1.0), and {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{eta}') = 1.0{sub -0.6}{sup +0.8} {+-} 0.1 (< 2.4), where the first error is statistical and the second systematic.

  7. Macroeconomic Forecast in Regional Strategies: The Example of Khabarovsk Territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the methodological and instrumental problems of forecasting medium-term dynamics of a region’s socio-economic development as part of constructing the region’s socio-economic development strategy. The authors present results of constructing the system of models of different classes integrated in a single model complex. The model complex is based on the synthesis of methods of intersectoral analysis and dynamic optimization and consists of four The article was supported by the FEB RAS Program of Fundamental Research ‘Far East’ (Subprogram 8. predictive-analytical modules: a aggregate demand generation, b estimation of intersectoral interactions, c resource constraints testing d estimation of standard of living indicators. The modules are interconnected with horizontal communication channels activated within one time cycle (step or year and vertical communication channels activated between different time cycles. The authors test the model complex on the data of Khabarovsk Territory. The results of the study include quantitative assessments of macroeconomic and social parameters projections in the context of stages and scenarios of socio-economic development of the region

  8. Decay J/π → 3γ and a search for the eta/sub c/

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partridge, R.; Peck, C.; Porter, F.; Kollman, W.; Richardson, M.; Strauch, K.; Wacker, K.; Aschman, D.; Burnett, T.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Coyne, D.; Sadrozinski, H.; Bloom, E.; Bulos, F.; Chestnut, R.; Gaiser, J.; Godfrey, G.; Kiesling, C.; Oreglia, M.; Hofstadter, R.; Kirkbride, I.; Kolanoski, H.; Liberman, A.; O'Reilly, J.; Tompkins, J.

    1980-01-01

    The decay J/psi into 3γ final states has been studied. No evidence is found for the existence of the X(2.83) or any heavy narrow state (e.g., the eta/sub c/) decaying into two photons. Upper limits are given on the branching ratio J/psi → eta/sub c/,eta/sub c/ → 2γ for eta/sub c/ masses in the 2.7--3.0-GeV region. In addition, the branching ratios J/psi → γeta,γeta' are measured. It is found that the eta' branching ratio is higher than previously reported

  9. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  10. Distributed HUC-based modeling with SUMMA for ensemble streamflow forecasting over large regional domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saharia, M.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.; Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Most operational streamflow forecasting systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow require an experienced human forecaster. But this approach faces challenges surrounding process reproducibility, hindcasting capability, and extension to large domains. The operational hydrologic community is increasingly moving towards `over-the-loop' (completely automated) large-domain simulations yet recent developments indicate a widespread lack of community knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of such systems for forecasting. A realistic representation of land surface hydrologic processes is a critical element for improving forecasts, but often comes at the substantial cost of forecast system agility and efficiency. While popular grid-based models support the distributed representation of land surface processes, intermediate-scale Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-based modeling could provide a more efficient and process-aligned spatial discretization, reducing the need for tradeoffs between model complexity and critical forecasting requirements such as ensemble methods and comprehensive model calibration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the USACE to implement, assess, and demonstrate real-time, over-the-loop distributed streamflow forecasting for several large western US river basins and regions. In this presentation, we present early results from short to medium range hydrologic and streamflow forecasts for the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We employ a real-time 1/16th degree daily ensemble model forcings as well as downscaled Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) meteorological forecasts. These datasets drive an intermediate-scale configuration of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model, which represents the PNW using over 11,700 HUCs. The system produces not only streamflow forecasts (using the Mizu

  11. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  12. The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the

  13. ETA CARINAE ACROSS THE 2003.5 MINIMUM: ANALYSIS IN THE VISIBLE AND NEAR-INFRARED SPECTRAL REGION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, K. E.; Kober, G. Vieira; Weis, K.; Bomans, D. J.; Gull, T. R.; Stahl, O.

    2009-01-01

    We present an analysis of the visible through near-infrared spectrum of Eta Carinae (η Car) and its ejecta obtained during the 'η Car Campaign with the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) at the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT)'. This is a part of larger effort to present a complete η Car spectrum, and extends the previously presented analyses with the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) in the UV (1240-3159 A) to 10,430 A. The spectrum in the mid- and near-UV is characterized by the ejecta absorption. At longer wavelengths, stellar wind features from the central source and narrow-emission lines from the Weigelt condensations dominate the spectrum. However, narrow absorption lines from the circumstellar shells are present. This paper provides a description of the spectrum between 3060 and 10,430 A, including line identifications of the ejecta absorption spectrum, the emission spectrum from the Weigelt condensations and the P Cygni stellar wind features. The high spectral resolving power of VLT/UVES enables equivalent width measurements of atomic and molecular absorption lines for elements with no transitions at the shorter wavelengths. However, the ground-based seeing and contributions of nebular-scattered radiation prevent direct comparison of measured equivalent widths in the VLT/UVES and HST/STIS spectra. Fortunately, HST/STIS and VLT/UVES have a small overlap in wavelength coverage which allows us to compare and adjust for the difference in scattered radiation entering the instruments' apertures. This paper provides a complete online VLT/UVES spectrum with line identifications and a spectral comparison between HST/STIS and VLT/UVES between 3060 and 3160 A.

  14. Study of the reaction π-p → eta n in the region of the N*(1688)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaffee, R.B.

    1975-01-01

    In an experiment performed at the Bevatron, a negative-pion beam incident on a 20-cm liquid-hydrogen target produced reactions of the form π/sup -/p → neutral final state. The final-state neutron was detected by plastic-scintillator counters. The final-state photons were detected by lead-plate spark chambers, which covered about 3.7 π solid angle, or by lead-scintillator sandwich counters, which covered most of the open face of the spark-chamber array. For this analysis, a kinematic fit was done on the L. B. L. computer for each event in which two photons were detected. For each momentum, events which fit the hypothesis π/sup -/p → eta n were binned according to the calculated production cosine, and the resulting distributions were corrected by comparing to the results of a Monte-Carlo calculation for the same reaction. The differential cross section was calculated for each bin, and the values for each momentum were fit to a sum of Legendre polynomials in production cosine. In the final chapter, the Legendre polynomial coefficients, the total cross section, and the differential cross sections extrapolated to 0 0 and 180 0 are compared to the results of other experiments, and some speculations are offered as to the spin-parity states which affect the measured behavior of the reaction. The conclusion is drawn that the N (1688) does not contribute, but that the N (1670) does, with a cross section of (0.84 +- 0.21) mb. (U.S.)

  15. Enhanced regional forecasting considering single wind farm distribution for upscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremen, Lueder von; Saleck, Nadja; Heinemann, Detlev

    2007-01-01

    With increasing wind power penetration the need for more accurate wind power forecasts increases to raise the market value of wind power. State-of-the-art wind power forecasting tools are considered either statistical or physical. Fundamentally new techniques are rare, thus it is tried to establish a new approach. The spatial decomposition of wind power generation in Germany can be done with principle component analysis to extract the main pattern of variability. They have a physical meaning when linked with typical weather situation. The first four eigenvectors explain about 94 % of the observed variance. The time-evolving principle components are linked with the total wind power feed-in in Germany and are used for its estimation. A new wind power forecasting model has been implemented with this approach and shows very good results that are comparable with state-of-the-art commercial wind power forecast models. The day-ahead forecast error for a common intercomparison period Jan-Jul 2006 is 4.4 %. The suggested approach offers wide ranges for future developments (e.g. several NWP models), because it is computationally very cheap to run

  16. Handbook for Forecasters in the Mediterranean. Part 2. Regional Forecasting Aids for the Mediterranean Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    important role in modifying the poniente. Strong northwesterly flow crossing the Sierra Nevada (see Figure 1-1) causes a lee trough to develop along...the coast of southern France. *Comprises British forecast sea areas Lions, Unicorn , Bougie; see Figure lb in the Introduction. II-I 0) (1) C- C.0 CDC L...Alps are most important features insofar as they play a significant weather role in terms of planetary waves, cyclogenesis and fronts. 1 .2 SEASONAL

  17. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  18. $\\eta$-metric structures

    OpenAIRE

    Gaba, Yaé Ulrich

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss recent results about generalized metric spaces and fixed point theory. We introduce the notion of $\\eta$-cone metric spaces, give some topological properties and prove some fixed point theorems for contractive type maps on these spaces. In particular we show that theses $\\eta$-cone metric spaces are natural generalizations of both cone metric spaces and metric type spaces.

  19. Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

    2017-10-01

    Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

  20. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-04

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  1. Perturbations of modeling and forecast of karachi coastal region seawater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, S.; Ansari, M.R.K.; Zaffar, A.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. (author)

  2. Time series regression and ARIMAX for forecasting currency flow at Bank Indonesia in Sulawesi region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suharsono, Agus; Suhartono, Masyitha, Aulia; Anuravega, Arum

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the study is to forecast the outflow and inflow of currency at Indonesian Central Bank or Bank Indonesia (BI) in Sulawesi Region. The currency outflow and inflow data tend to have a trend pattern which is influenced by calendar variation effects. Therefore, this research focuses to apply some forecasting methods that could handle calendar variation effects, i.e. Time Series Regression (TSR) and ARIMAX models, and compare the forecast accuracy with ARIMA model. The best model is selected based on the lowest of Root Mean Squares Errors (RMSE) at out-sample dataset. The results show that ARIMA is the best model for forecasting the currency outflow and inflow at South Sulawesi. Whereas, the best model for forecasting the currency outflow at Central Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi, and for forecasting the currency inflow at South Sulawesi and North Sulawesi is TSR. Additionally, ARIMAX is the best model for forecasting the currency outflow at North Sulawesi. Hence, the results show that more complex models do not neccessary yield more accurate forecast than the simpler one.

  3. Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieger, Stefan; Greenslade, Diana; Kepert, Jeffrey D.

    2018-05-01

    Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4∘) and regional (resolution 1/10∘) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

  4. The ETA10 supercomputer system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swanson, C.D.

    1987-01-01

    The ETA Systems, Inc. ETA 10 is a next-generation supercomputer featuring multiprocessing, a large hierarchical memory system, high performance input/output, and network support for both batch and interactive processing. Advanced technology used in the ETA 10 includes liquid nitrogen cooled CMOS logic with 20,000 gates per chip, a single printed circuit board for each CPU, and high density static and dynamics MOS memory chips. Software for the ETA 10 includes an underlying kernel that supports multiple user environments, a new ETA FORTRAN compiler with an advanced automatic vectorizer, a multitasking library and debugging tools. Possible developments for future supercomputers from ETA Systems are discussed. (orig.)

  5. A large mixing effect on eta,eta' and iota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawai, E.

    1983-01-01

    We quantitatively investigate a possible large mixing effect on eta(549), eta'(958) and iota(1440) in a phenomenological way, taking both SU(3) symmetry breaking and gluon intervention into due account. (orig.)

  6. A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; McNally, Amy; Husak, Gregory; Funk, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

     The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. More accurate seasonal agricultural drought forecasts for this region can inform better water and agricultural management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts and floods. Here we describe the development and implementation of a seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for East Africa (EA) that provides decision support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's science team. We evaluate this forecast system for a region of equatorial EA (2° S to 8° N, and 36° to 46° E) for the March-April-May growing season. This domain encompasses one of the most food insecure, climatically variable and socio-economically vulnerable regions in EA, and potentially the world: this region has experienced famine as recently as 2011. To assess the agricultural outlook for the upcoming season our forecast system simulates soil moisture (SM) scenarios using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model forced with climate scenarios for the upcoming season. First, to show that the VIC model is appropriate for this application we forced the model with high quality atmospheric observations and found that the resulting SM values were consistent with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), an index used by FEWS NET to estimate crop yields. Next we tested our forecasting system with hindcast runs (1993–2012). We found that initializing SM forecasts with start-of-season (5 March) SM conditions resulted in useful SM forecast skill (> 0.5 correlation) at 1-month, and in some cases at 3 month lead times. Similarly, when the forecast was initialized with mid-season (i.e. 5 April) SM conditions the skill until the end-of-season improved. This shows that early-season rainfall

  7. Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: the effect on regional crop yield forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Boogaard, H.L.; Diepen, van C.A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the effect of uncertainty in precipitation and radiation on crop simulation results at local (50 × 50 km grids) and regional scale (NUTS1 regions) and on the crop yield forecasts for Germany and France. Two experiments were carried out where crop yields for winter-wheat and grain

  8. Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  9. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  10. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

  11. Forecasting the daily electricity consumption in the Moscow region using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, V. V.; Kryanev, A. V.; Osetrov, E. S.

    2017-07-01

    In [1] we demonstrated the possibility in principle for short-term forecasting of daily volumes of passenger traffic in the Moscow metro with the help of artificial neural networks. During training and predicting, a set of the factors that affect the daily passenger traffic in the subway is passed to the input of the neural network. One of these factors is the daily power consumption in the Moscow region. Therefore, to predict the volume of the passenger traffic in the subway, we must first to solve the problem of forecasting the daily energy consumption in the Moscow region.

  12. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System: From R&D to Operational Regional Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Rocha Fragoso, M.; Moore, A. M.; dos Santos, F. A.; Marques Da Cruz, L.; Carvalho, G. V.; Soares, F.

    2016-02-01

    Santos Basin is located on the Southwestern Brazilian Ocean Basin and comprises the main offshore oil reserves of Brazil. The exploration and production activities on its ocean are growing in accelerated pace, which means that oil spill contingency and search & rescue operations are likely to be more frequent. Therefore, ocean current reliable nowcasts and forecasts has become even more important for this region. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System was designed as an R&D project and its main objective was to establish and maintain a systematic oceanographic data collection for this region in order to study its ocean dynamics and improve regional ocean forecast through data assimilation. In the first three years of the project surface drifters, profiling floats and gliders were deployed to measure and monitor mainly the Brazil Current Western Boundary System, a highly unstable baroclinic current system, that present several meanders and mesoscale eddies activities. Throughout the development of the project, the team involved was able to learn how to operate the equipment, treat the collected data and use it to assimilate on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). After performing a one-year 4DVAR assimilation cycle (Fragoso et al., 2015) in which the forecasting skill was assessed, the system was considered mature enough to start producing ocean circulation forecasts for Santos Basin. It is the first time in Brazil that a regional ocean model using a 4DVAR data assimilation scheme was used to produce high resolution operational ocean current forecasts. This paper describes all the components of this forecasting system, its main results and discoveries with special focus on the Brazil Current System Transport and mesocale eddies dynamics and statistics.

  13. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kukkonen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

  14. Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and

  15. MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A; Moore, Ronald L; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the “Present MAG4” technique and each of three alternative techniques, called “McIntosh Active-Region Class,” “Total Magnetic Flux,” and “Next MAG4.” We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4). Key Points Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux PMID:26213517

  16. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-12-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

  17. Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornilov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

  18. Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowangould, Dana; Eldridge, Melody; Niemeier, Deb

    2013-01-01

    To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption. - Highlights: • Current tools inconsistently forecast GHG emissions from project-level development. • We outline five assumptions about how projects may affect regional growth. • Our assumptions capture a range of economic and population effects of projects. • Our case study shows that growth assumptions greatly affect regional GHG estimates. • We provide guidelines for selecting a conservative regional growth assumption

  19. Methodology for Air Quality Forecast Downscaling from Regional- to Street-Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Hansen Saas, Bent; Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Lorenzen, Thomas; Weismann, Jakob

    2010-05-01

    The most serious air pollution events occur in cities where there is a combination of high population density and air pollution, e.g. from vehicles. The pollutants can lead to serious human health problems, including asthma, irritation of the lungs, bronchitis, pneumonia, decreased resistance to respiratory infections, and premature death. In particular air pollution is associated with increase in cardiovascular disease and lung cancer. In 2000 WHO estimated that between 2.5 % and 11 % of total annual deaths are caused by exposure to air pollution. However, European-scale air quality models are not suited for local forecasts, as their grid-cell is typically of the order of 5 to 10km and they generally lack detailed representation of urban effects. Two suites are used in the framework of the EC FP7 project MACC (Monitoring of Atmosphere Composition and Climate) to demonstrate how downscaling from the European MACC ensemble to local-scale air quality forecast will be carried out: one will illustrate capabilities for the city of Copenhagen (Denmark); the second will focus on the city of Bucharest (Romania). This work is devoted to the first suite, where methodological aspects of downscaling from regional (European/ Denmark) to urban scale (Copenhagen), and from the urban down to street scale. The first results of downscaling according to the proposed methodology are presented. The potential for downscaling of European air quality forecasts by operating urban and street-level forecast models is evaluated. This will bring a strong support for continuous improvement of the regional forecast modelling systems for air quality in Europe, and underline clear perspectives for the future regional air quality core and downstream services for end-users. At the end of the MACC project, requirements on "how-to-do" downscaling of European air-quality forecasts to the city and street levels with different approaches will be formulated.

  20. Radiative decay of the eta-, eta'-mesons in the nonlocal quark model. [eta(eta'). --> gamma gamma. ; eta. -->. pi. /sup +/. pi. /sup -/. gamma. ; eta. -->. pi. /sup 0/2. gamma. ; eta'. -->. rho/sup 0/. gamma. ; eta'. -->. omega gamma. ;. pi. /sup 0/. -->. gamma. e/sup +/e/sup -/; eta(eta'). -->. gamma mu. /sup +/. mu. /sup -/

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efimov, G V; Ivanov, M A; Nogovitsyn, E A [Joint Inst. for Nuclear Research, Dubna (USSR)

    1981-07-01

    P..--> gamma gamma.. (P=..pi../sup 0/, eta, eta'), eta..--> pi../sup +/..pi../sup -/..gamma.., eta..--> pi../sup 0/..gamma gamma.., eta/sup 1/..-->..V..gamma.. (V=rho/sup 0/, ..omega..), p..--> gamma..l/sup +/l/sup -/ (p=..pi../sup 0/, eta, eta') radiation decays are studied for testing the applicability of the non-local quark model for description of the experimental data. The Feynman diagrams of these decays are presented, values of the widths of the Veta..--> gamma gamma.., eta..--> pi../sup +/..pi../sup -/..gamma.., eta..--> pi../sup 0/..gamma gamma.., eta'..--> gamma gamma.., eta'..-->..rho/sup 0/..gamma.., eta'..--> omega gamma.. decays are calculated and given in the form of a table. Calculations are carried out for two values of the eta eta'-crossing angle: THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. Values of invariant amplitudes of these decays are determined for ..pi../sup 0/..--> gamma..e/sup +/e/sup -/, eta..--> gamma mu../sup +/..mu../sup -/, eta'..--> gamma mu../sup +/..mu../sup -/ decays at THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. The best agreement with the experimental data is noted to take place at THETA=-11 deg, the determined width of the eta..--> pi../sup 0/..gamma gamma.. decays is underestimated as compared with the experimental one.

  1. Tourism demand in the Algarve region: Evolution and forecast using SVARMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Isabel Cristina; Soares, Filomena; Silva, Eliana Costa e.

    2017-06-01

    Tourism is one of the Portuguese economy's key sectors, and its relative weight has grown over recent years. The Algarve region is particularly focused on attracting foreign tourists and has built over the years a large offer of diversified hotel units. In this paper we present multivariate time series approach to forecast the number of overnight stays in hotel units (hotels, guesthouses or hostels, and tourist apartments) in Algarve. We adjust a seasonal vector autoregressive and moving averages model (SVARMA) to monthly data between 2006 and 2016. The forecast values were compared with the actual values of the overnight stays in Algarve in 2016 and led to a MAPE of 15.1% and RMSE= 53847.28. The MAPE for the Hotel series was merely 4.56%. These forecast values can be used by a hotel manager to predict their occupancy and to determine the best pricing policy.

  2. Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminyavari, Saleh; Saghafian, Bahram; Delavar, Majid

    2018-04-01

    The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous (yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008-16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation. The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation, NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations. Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.

  3. Measurement of anti pp→π0π0, π0eta0 in the T and U-meson region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dulude, R.S.; Lanou, R.E.; Massimo, J.T.; Peaslee, D.C.; Thornton, R.K.; Barton, D.S.; Marx, M.; Nelson, B.A.; Rosenson, L.; DeMarzo, C.; Guerriero, L.; Posa, F.; Vaccari, E.; Waldner, F.

    1978-01-01

    Measurements are presented from a counter-optical spark chamber experiment of the differential cross sections for anti ppAπ 0 π 0 ,π 0 eta 0 at 25 momenta in the range 1.1-2.0 GeV/c (c.m. energy 2.12 to 2.43 GeV). Approximately 750000 pictures were taken in the experiment. (Auth.)

  4. SACLAY: Eta mesons at Saturne

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1992-05-15

    Using a nuclear reaction, the new tagged eta meson facility now operating at the French Saturne National Laboratory in Saclay produces eta mesons (together with recoil helium-3 nuclei) by proton bombardment of a deuterium target. The proton beam is extracted from the Saturne synchrotron at 893 MeV, stabilized to 80 keV. This is a scant 1.5 MeV above the reaction threshold and close to the energy where eta production peaks.

  5. SACLAY: Eta mesons at Saturne

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Using a nuclear reaction, the new tagged eta meson facility now operating at the French Saturne National Laboratory in Saclay produces eta mesons (together with recoil helium-3 nuclei) by proton bombardment of a deuterium target. The proton beam is extracted from the Saturne synchrotron at 893 MeV, stabilized to 80 keV. This is a scant 1.5 MeV above the reaction threshold and close to the energy where eta production peaks

  6. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  7. Study of the radiative decay J/psi → γetaπ+π-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.J.; Blaylock, G.T.; Bolton, T.

    1987-02-01

    The Mark III collaboration has performed a high statistics study of the reaction J/psi → γetaπ + π - , with two different final states of the eta, eta → γγ and eta → π 0 π + π - . Both modes have a broad structure from 1.2 to 1.9 GeV/c 2 and two structures, which decay via δ +- π -+ , δ +- → etaπ +- , are identified at 1.28 and 1.39 GeV/c 2 . No signal is observed in the iota(1440) signal region

  8. Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model has been utilized to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, factors including horizontal resolution, domain size, and the physical parameterization scheme have a strong impact on the dynamic downscaling ability of the WRF model. In this study, the influence of these factors has been analyzed in precipitation forecasting for the Xijiang Basin, southern China—a region with complex topography. The results indicate that higher horizontal resolutions always result in higher Critical Success Indexes (CSI, but higher biases as well. Meanwhile, the precipitation forecast skills are also influenced by the combination of microphysics parameterization scheme and cumulus convective parameterization scheme. On the basis of these results, an optimized configuration of the WRF model is built in which the horizontal resolution is 10 km, the microphysics parameterization is the Lin scheme, and the cumulus convective parameterization is the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme. This configuration is then evaluated by simulating the daily weather during the 2013–2014 flood season. The high Critical Success Index scores and low biases at various thresholds and lead times confirm the high accuracy of the optimized WRF model configuration for Xijiang Basin. However, the performance of the WRF model varies from different sub-basins due to the complexity of the mesoscale convective system (MCS over this region.

  9. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs < 1 is tested for each pixel in n simulations which are integrated in a unique parameter. This parameter links the landslide probability to the uncertainties of soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  10. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojie; Zhao, Luqiang; Delgado-Tellez, Ricardo; Bao, Hongjun

    2018-03-01

    Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs) of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  11. Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation

  12. Improving Regional Forecast by Assimilating Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles into WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2009-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background type, and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are derived from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators were used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. The analyses were then used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impacts of AIRS profiles on forecast were assessed against verifying NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

  13. The use of satellite data assimilation methods in regional NWP for solar irradiance forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurzrock, Frederik; Cros, Sylvain; Chane-Ming, Fabrice; Potthast, Roland; Linguet, Laurent; Sébastien, Nicolas

    2016-04-01

    As an intermittent energy source, the injection of solar power into electricity grids requires irradiance forecasting in order to ensure grid stability. On time scales of more than six hours ahead, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is recognized as the most appropriate solution. However, the current representation of clouds in NWP models is not sufficiently precise for an accurate forecast of solar irradiance at ground level. Dynamical downscaling does not necessarily increase the quality of irradiance forecasts. Furthermore, incorrectly simulated cloud evolution is often the cause of inaccurate atmospheric analyses. In non-interconnected tropical areas, the large amplitudes of solar irradiance variability provide abundant solar yield but present significant problems for grid safety. Irradiance forecasting is particularly important for solar power stakeholders in these regions where PV electricity penetration is increasing. At the same time, NWP is markedly more challenging in tropic areas than in mid-latitudes due to the special characteristics of tropical homogeneous convective air masses. Numerous data assimilation methods and strategies have evolved and been applied to a large variety of global and regional NWP models in the recent decades. Assimilating data from geostationary meteorological satellites is an appropriate approach. Indeed, models converting radiances measured by satellites into cloud properties already exist. Moreover, data are available at high temporal frequencies, which enable a pertinent cloud cover evolution modelling for solar energy forecasts. In this work, we present a survey of different approaches which aim at improving cloud cover forecasts using the assimilation of geostationary meteorological satellite data into regional NWP models. Various approaches have been applied to a variety of models and satellites and in different regions of the world. Current methods focus on the assimilation of cloud-top information, derived from infrared

  14. a system approach to the long term forecasting of the climat data in baikal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abasov, N.; Berezhnykh, T.

    2003-04-01

    The Angara river running from Baikal with a cascade of hydropower plants built on it plays a peculiar role in economy of the region. With view of high variability of water inflow into the rivers and lakes (long-term low water periods and catastrophic floods) that is due to climatic peculiarities of the water resource formation, a long-term forecasting is developed and applied for risk decreasing at hydropower plants. Methodology and methods of long-term forecasting of natural-climatic processes employs some ideas of the research schools by Academician I.P.Druzhinin and Prof. A.P.Reznikhov and consists in detailed investigation of cause-effect relations, finding out physical analogs and their application to formalized methods of long-term forecasting. They are divided into qualitative (background method; method of analogs based on solar activity), probabilistic and approximative methods (analog-similarity relations; discrete-continuous model). These forecasting methods have been implemented in the form of analytical aids of the information-forecasting software "GIPSAR" that provides for some elements of artificial intelligence. Background forecasts of the runoff of the Ob, the Yenisei, the Angara Rivers in the south of Siberia are based on space-time regularities that were revealed on taking account of the phase shifts in occurrence of secular maxima and minima on integral-difference curves of many-year hydrological processes in objects compared. Solar activity plays an essential role in investigations of global variations of climatic processes. Its consideration in the method of superimposed epochs has allowed a conclusion to be made on the higher probability of the low-water period in the actual inflow to Lake Baikal that takes place on the increasing branch of solar activity of its 11-year cycle. The higher probability of a high-water period is observed on the decreasing branch of solar activity from the 2nd to the 5th year after its maximum. Probabilistic method

  15. Development of a forecasting method of a region`s electric power demand. 1. Forecasting economic and social indexes; Chiikibetsu denryoku juyo yosoku shuhono kaihatsu ni tsuite. 1. Keizai shakai shihyo no yosoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minato, Y. [Shikoku Research Institute Inc., Kagawa (Japan); Yokoi, Y. [The University of Tokushima, Tokushima (Japan)

    1996-01-20

    This paper relates to the forecasting method of the electric power demands (kWh and kW) of a region, approached by not only time series analysis but economic and social indexes. Those indexes, based on historical statistics such as census and establishment statistics, are rearranged from an administrative division to a managerial division of the electric power company, and applied as fundamental information for forecasting the area`s kWh and also sales promotion. This method of forecasting the area`s kWh is based on the concept that area`s kWh is strongly connected with the population their lifestyle and their activity within the region. In the paper, the framework of the computational model system and forecast result are discussed. The population, number of households and their members, and number of employed persons, are all evaluated. The forecasting method of the area`s population proposed here is based on the concept that the transition of population consists of both natural growth and immigration. By estimating both factors, the future area`s population can be easily forecasted. The information of whether the population is increasing or decreasing is useful for forecasting the region`s kWh and required sales promotion. 8 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheze, Benoit; Gastineau, Pascal; Chevallier, Julien

    2011-01-01

    This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted. - Highlights: → Jet fuel demand is forecasted at the worldwide and regional level until 2025. → Regional heterogeneity must be considered when forecasting jet fuel demand. → World air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025. → World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period. → Technological progress will not be enough to decrease the world jet fuel demand.

  17. The wind forecasting improvement project. Description and results from the Southern study region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Jeffrey [AWS Truepower LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Benjamin, Stan; Wilczak, James [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC and Boulder, CO (United States)] [and others

    2012-07-01

    The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) is a multi-year U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sponsored study whose main purpose is to demonstrate the scientific and economic benefits of additional atmospheric observations and model enhancements on wind energy production forecasts. WFIP covers two geographical regions of the U.S.: (1) the upper Great Plains, or Northern Study Area, and (2) most of Texas-the Southern Study Area. The Southern campaign is being led by AWS Truepower LLC, and includes a team of private, government, and academic partners with collective experience and expertise in all facets required to ensure a successful completion of the project. In addition presenting a summary of the state-of-the-art forecasting techniques used and phenomena-based analysis mentioned above, a brief synopsis of how ''lessons learned'' from the WFIP Southern Study Area can be articulated and applied to other wind resource regions will be described. (orig.)

  18. Regional air-quality forecasting for the Pacific Northwest using MOPITT/TERRA assimilated carbon monoxide MOZART-4 forecasts as a near real-time boundary condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. L. Herron-Thorpe

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Results from a regional air quality forecast model, AIRPACT-3, were compared to AIRS carbon monoxide column densities for the spring of 2010 over the Pacific Northwest. AIRPACT-3 column densities showed high correlation (R > 0.9 but were significantly biased (~25% with consistent under-predictions for spring months when there is significant transport from Asia. The AIRPACT-3 CO bias relative to AIRS was eliminated by incorporating dynamic boundary conditions derived from NCAR's MOZART forecasts with assimilated MOPITT carbon monoxide. Changes in ozone-related boundary conditions derived from MOZART forecasts are also discussed and found to affect background levels by ± 10 ppb but not found to significantly affect peak ozone surface concentrations.

  19. Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekman, Annica

    2000-02-01

    Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO 2 (a)), sulfate in air (SO 4 (a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO 4 (aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ). Modeled concentrations of SO 2 (a), SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO 2 (a) concentration and underpredicts the SO 4 (a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO 4 (aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO 2 (a) and 2-2.5 days for SO 4 (a). For SO 2 (a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO 4 (a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO 2 (a) to SO 4 (a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations

  20. Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leontiy Viktorovich Eder

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018–2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: from 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia.

  1. Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part II: minimum temperatures in winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

    2009-09-01

    Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of minimum temperatures during winter is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, winter minimum temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent cold-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict cold-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that low temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily minimum temperatures during winter over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the winter forecast period from 1 December 2007 - 31 March 2008. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated minimum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme cold episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia

  2. Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part I: maximum temperatures in summer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

    2009-09-01

    Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of summer maximum temperatures is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, summer maximum daily temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent heat-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict heat-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily maximum temperatures during summer over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the summer forecast period of 1 June - 30 September, 2007. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated maximum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme heat episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

  3. The regional geological hazard forecast based on rainfall and WebGIS in Hubei, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guizhou; Chao, Yi; Xu, Hongwen

    2008-10-01

    Various disasters have been a serious threat to human and are increasing over time. The reduction and prevention of hazard is the largest problem faced by local governments. The study of disasters has drawn more and more attention mainly due to increasing awareness of the socio-economic impact of disasters. Hubei province, one of the highest economic developing provinces in China, suffered big economic losses from geo-hazards in recent years due to frequent geo-hazard events with the estimated damage of approximately 3000 million RMB. It is therefore important to establish an efficient way to mitigate potential damage and reduce losses of property and life derived from disasters. This paper presents the procedure of setting up a regional geological hazard forecast and information releasing system of Hubei province with the combination of advanced techniques such as World Wide Web (WWW), database online and ASP based on WEBGIS platform (MAPGIS-IMS) and rainfall information. A Web-based interface was developed using a three-tiered architecture based on client-server technology in this system. The study focused on the upload of the rainfall data, the definition of rainfall threshold values, the creation of geological disaster warning map and the forecast of geohazard relating to the rainfall. Its purposes are to contribute to the management of mass individual and regional geological disaster spatial data, help to forecast the conditional probabilities of occurrence of various disasters that might be posed by the rainfall, and release forecasting information of Hubei province timely via the internet throughout all levels of government, the private and nonprofit sectors, and the academic community. This system has worked efficiently and stably in the internet environment which is strongly connected with meteorological observatory. Environment Station of Hubei Province are making increased use of our Web-tool to assist in the decision-making process to analyze geo

  4. Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

    2015-12-01

    We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

  5. Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

    2018-04-01

    This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

  6. Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekman, Annica [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    2000-02-01

    Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO{sub 2}(a)), sulfate in air (SO{sub 4}(a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO{sub 4}(aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}). Modeled concentrations of SO{sub 2}(a), SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO{sub 2}(a) concentration and underpredicts the SO{sub 4}(a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO{sub 2}(a) and 2-2.5 days for SO{sub 4}(a). For SO{sub 2}(a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO{sub 4}(a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO{sub 2}(a) to SO{sub 4}(a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations.

  7. Methodological Aspects in Forecasting Innovation Development of Dairy Cattle Breeding in the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natal’ya Aleksandrovna Medvedeva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to the fact that Russia is now a member of the World Trade Organization, long-term forecasting becomes an objectively necessary condition that helps choose an effective science-based long-term strategy for development of dairy cattle breeding that would take into consideration intellectual and innovative characteristics. Current structure of available statistical information does not meet modern challenges of innovation development and does not reflect adequately the trends of ongoing changes. The paper suggests a system of indicators to analyze the status, development and prospects of dairy cattle breeding in the region; this system provides timely identification of emerging risks and threats of deviation from the specified parameters. The system included indicators contained in the current statistical reporting and new indicators of innovation development of the industry, the quality of human capital and the level of government support. When designing the system of indicators, we used several methodological aspects of the Oslo Manual, which the Federal State Statistics Service considers to be an official methodological document concerning the collection of information about innovation activities. A structured system of indicators shifts the emphasis in the analysis of the final results to the conditions and prerequisites that help achieve forecast performance indicators in the functioning of Russia’s economy under WTO rules and make substantiated management decisions

  8. Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S

    2013-02-01

    Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.

  9. Forecasting the development of regional economy on the basis of input — output tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury Konstantinovich Mashunin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a practical technology of forecasting the development of the regional economy, including the statement of the problem, the construction of a mathematical model, and its implementation. At the constructing of a model, the standard statistical data for the previous period (2011, built on the basis of the table “input — output” are used. A unit of output of final demand, resulting from investments is added. As a result, a model of the regional economy made in the form of a vector mathematical programming problem that takes into account the investment processes in a region is obtained. Its purpose is to maximize the production of final demand in a region (all industries in a region within the constraints of the input-output balance, investments, resource costs and capacities. For solving linear programming problems of vector, methods, based on the principle of normalization criteria and guaranteed result are used. Vector dynamics problem is solved in a specified number of years. The factors taking into account the rate of growth: gross volumes (resources, final demand, investment in every sector of the region are introduced. Numerical implementation of the prediction is shown in the test case economic modeling of Primorsky Krai, including fifteen branches of a three-year period in accordance with the requirements of the Budget Code. Results of the solution include the major economic indicators for a region: gross, gross regional product (GRP, investments (including broken by industry, as well as payroll taxes and other. All these economic indicators are the basis for the formation of budget revenues in a region.

  10. The analysis of B-d ->(eta, eta ')l(+)l(-) decays in the standard model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erkol, G; Turan, G

    We study the differential branching ratio, the branching ratio and the CP-violating asymmetry for the exclusive B-d --> (eta,eta')l(+)l(-) decays in the standard model. We deduce the B-d --> (eta,eta') form factors from the form factors of B --> pi available in the literature, by using the SU(3)(F)

  11. LOAD FORECASTING FOR POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND OPERATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AT AL BATINAH REGION OMAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HUSSEIN A. ABDULQADER

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Load forecasting is essential part for the power system planning and operation. In this paper the modeling and design of artificial neural network for load forecasting is carried out in a particular region of Oman. Neural network approach helps to reduce the problem associated with conventional method and has the advantage of learning directly from the historical data. The neural network here uses data such as past load; weather information like humidity and temperatures. Once the neural network is trained for the past set of data it can give a prediction of future load. This reduces the capital investment reducing the equipments to be installed. The actual data are taken from the Mazoon Electrical Company, Oman. The data of load for the year 2007, 2008 and 2009 are collected for a particular region called Al Batinah in Oman and trained using neural networks to forecast the future. The main objective is to forecast the amount of electricity needed for better load distribution in the areas of this region in Oman. The load forecasting is done for the year 2010 and is validated for the accuracy.

  12. The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

    2015-10-01

    The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

  13. Telekomunikazio-sare eta zerbitzuak: teoria

    OpenAIRE

    Huarte Arrayago, Maider; Saiz Agustín, Purificación; Goirizelaia Ordorika, Iñaki

    2011-01-01

    Helburuak: Testu-liburu honen helburua bikoitza da, 'Telekomunikazio-sare eta zerbitzuak' (2001eko ikasketa-planetako Telekomunikazio Ingeniaritza Teknikoetako 2. mailan irakasten zena) eta 'Telekomunikazio-sare eta zerbitzuak I' (1995eko ikasketa-planetako Telekomunikazio Ingeniaritzako 2. mailan irakasten zena) irakasgaietako ikasleentzat (hortaz, ikasketarako) zein irakasleentzat (hots, irakaskuntzarako) lagungarri izatea. Horregatik, ikasgelan azaldutako kontzeptuen kontsultarako testu-li...

  14. Experiments on eta-meson production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Following a review of some highlights of eta-meson characteristics, the status of eta-meson production experiments is reviewed. The physics motivations and first results of two LAMPF experiments on (π,eta) reactions are discussed. Possible future experiments are also discussed. 42 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs

  15. B meson decays to charmless meson pairs containing eta or eta'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, : B.

    2009-12-14

    The authors present updated measurements of the branching fractions for B{sup 0} meson decays to {eta}K{sup 0}, {eta}{eta}, {eta}{phi}, {eta}{omega}, {eta}{prime}K{sup 0}, {eta}{prime}{eta}{prime}, {eta}{prime}, {phi}, and {eta}{prime}{omega} and branching fractions and CP-violating charge asymmetries for B{sup +} decays to {eta}{pi}{sup +}, {eta}K{sup +}, {eta}{prime}{pi}{sup +}, and {eta}{prime} K{sup +}. The data represent the full dataset of 467 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e{sup +}e{sup -} collider at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Besides large signals for the four charged B decays modes and for B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}K{sup 0}, they find evidence for three B{sup 0} decays modes at greater than 3.0{sigma} significance. They find {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}K{sup 0}) = (1.15{sub -0.38}{sup +0.43} {+-} 0.09) x 10{sup -6}, {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{omega}) = (0.94{sub -0.30}{sup +0.35} {+-} 0.09) x 10{sup -6}, and {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}{prime}{omega}) = (1.01{sub -0.38}{sup +0.46} {+-} 0.09) x 10{sup -6}, where the first (second) uncertainty is statistical (systematic). For the B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K{sup +} decay mode, they measure the charge asymmetry {Alpha}{sub ch} (B{sup +} {yields} {eta}K{sup +}) = -0.36 {+-} 0.11 {+-} 0.03.

  16. Gravity Chromatic Imaging of the Eta Car's Core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Bermudez, Joel

    2018-04-01

    Eta Car is one of the most massive, and intriguing, Luminous Blue Variables known. In its core resides a binary with a 5.54 years orbital period. Visible, infrared, and X-raobservations suggest that the primary star exhibits a very dense wind with a terminal velocity of about 420 km/s, while the secondary shows a much faster and less dense wind with a terminal velocity of 3000 km/s. The wind-wind collision zone at the core of Eta Car is thus a complex region that deserves a detailed study to understand the effect of the binary interaction in the evolution of the system. Here, we will present a unique imaging campaign with GRAVITY/VLTI of the Eta Car's core. The superb quality of our interferometric data, together with state-of-the-art image reconstruction techniques, allowed us to obtain, with milliarcsecond resolution, continuum and chromatic images cross the BrG and HeI lines in the Eta Car K-band spectrum (R 4000). These new data together with models of the primary wind of Eta Car has letting us to characterize the spatial distribution of the dust and gas in the inner 40 AU wind-wind collision zone of the target.

  17. Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

  18. Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J

    2016-02-11

    Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

  19. iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

  20. The ETA systems plans for supercomputers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swanson, C.D.

    1987-01-01

    The ETA Systems, is a class VII supercomputer featuring multiprocessing, a large hierarchical memory system, high performance input/output, and network support for both batch and interactive processing. Advanced technology used in the ETA 10 includes liquid nitrogen cooled CMOS logic with 20,000 gates per chip, a single printed circuit board for each CPU, and high density static and dynamic MOS memory chips. Software for the ETA 10 includes an underlying kernel that supports multiple user environments, a new ETA FORTRAN compiler with an advanced automatic vectorizer, a multitasking library and debugging tools. Possible developments for future supercomputers from ETA Systems are discussed

  1. Forecasting Forest Type and Age Classes in the Appalachian-Cumberland Subregion of the Central Hardwood Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes how forest type and age distributions might be expected to change in the Appalachian-Cumberland portions of the Central Hardwood Region over the next 50 years. Forecasting forest conditions requires accounting for a number of biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics within an internally consistent modeling framework. We used the US Forest...

  2. Forecasting electric demand of distribution system planing in rural and sparsely populated regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Buri, M.J. [ABB Automated Distribution Div., Raleigh, NC (United States); Finley, L.A. [Snohomish County PUD, Everett, WA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    Modern computerized distribution load forecasting methods, although accurate when applied to urban areas, give somewhat less satisfactory results when forecasting load growth in sparsely populated rural areas. This paper examines the differences between rural and urban load growth histories, identifying a major difference in the observed behavior of load growth. This difference is exploited in a new simulation forecasting algorithm. Tests show the new method is as accurate in forecasting rural load growth and as useful for analyzing DSM impacts than past methods, while requiring considerably lower computer resources and data than other simulation methods of comparable accuracy.

  3. Semi-Automatic Operational Service for Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the Tuscany Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona Magno

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A drought-monitoring and forecasting system developed for the Tuscany region was improved in order to provide a semi-automatic, more detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service for decision making, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders. Ground-based and satellite data from different sources (regional meteorological stations network, MODIS Terra satellite and CHIRPS/CRU precipitation datasets are integrated through an open-source, interoperable SDI (spatial data infrastructure based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices that allow following of the occurrence and evolution of a drought event. The SDI allows the dissemination of comprehensive, up-to-date and customizable information suitable for different end-users through different channels, from a web page and monthly bulletins, to interoperable web services, and a comprehensive climate service. The web services allow geospatial elaborations on the fly, and the geo-database can be increased with new input/output data to respond to specific requests or to increase the spatial resolution.

  4. Mapping Distribution and Forecasting Invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia's Afar Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, A. M.; Wakie, T.; Luizza, M.; Evangelista, P.

    2014-12-01

    Invasion of non-native species is among the most critical threats to natural ecosystems and economies world-wide. Mesquite (which includes some 45 species) is an invasive deciduous tree which is known to have an array of negative impacts on ecosystems and rural livelihoods in arid and semi-arid regions around the world, dominating millions of hectares of land in Asia, Africa, Australia and the Americas. In Ethiopia, Prosopis juliflora (the only reported mesquite) is the most pervasive plant invader, threatening local livelihoods and the country's unique biodiversity. Due to its rapid spread and persistence, P. juliflora has been ranked as one of the leading threats to traditional land use, exceeded only by drought and conflict. This project utilized NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) data and species distribution modeling to map current infestations of P. juliflora in the Afar region of northeastern Ethiopia, and forecast its suitable habitat across the entire country. This project provided a time and cost-effective strategy for conducting risk assessments of invasive mesquite and subsequent monitoring and mitigation efforts by land managers and local communities.

  5. Regional demand forecasting and simulation model: user's manual. Task 4, final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parhizgari, A M

    1978-09-25

    The Department of Energy's Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR) is an econometric and simulation system designed to estimate annual fuel-sector-region specific consumption of energy for the US. Its purposes are to (1) provide the demand side of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), (2) enhance our empirical insights into the structure of US energy demand, and (3) assist policymakers in their decisions on and formulations of various energy policies and/or scenarios. This report provides a self-contained user's manual for interpreting, utilizing, and implementing RDFOR simulation software packages. Chapters I and II present the theoretical structure and the simulation of RDFOR, respectively. Chapter III describes several potential scenarios which are (or have been) utilized in the RDFOR simulations. Chapter IV presents an overview of the complete software package utilized in simulation. Chapter V provides the detailed explanation and documentation of this package. The last chapter describes step-by-step implementation of the simulation package using the two scenarios detailed in Chapter III. The RDFOR model contains 14 fuels: gasoline, electricity, natural gas, distillate and residual fuels, liquid gases, jet fuel, coal, oil, petroleum products, asphalt, petroleum coke, metallurgical coal, and total fuels, spread over residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.

  6. Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

  7. An Operational Short-Term Forecasting System for Regional Hydropower Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Labuhn, K. A.; Calappi, T. J.; MacNeil, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Niagara River is the natural outlet of Lake Erie and drains four of the five Great lakes. The river is used to move commerce and is home to both sport fishing and tourism industries. It also provides nearly 5 million kilowatts of hydropower for approximately 3.9 million homes. Due to a complex international treaty and the necessity of balancing water needs for an extensive tourism industry, the power entities operating on the river require detailed and accurate short-term river flow forecasts to maximize power output. A new forecast system is being evaluated that takes advantage of several previously independent components including the NOAA Lake Erie operational Forecast System (LEOFS), a previously developed HEC-RAS model, input from the New York Power Authority(NYPA) and Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and lateral flow forecasts for some of the tributaries provided by the NOAA Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC). The Corps of Engineers updated the HEC-RAS model of the upper Niagara River to use the output forcing from LEOFS and a planned Grass Island Pool elevation provided by the power entities. The entire system has been integrated at the NERFC; it will be run multiple times per day with results provided to the Niagara River Control Center operators. The new model helps improve discharge forecasts by better accounting for dynamic conditions on Lake Erie. LEOFS captures seiche events on the lake that are often several meters of displacement from still water level. These seiche events translate into flow spikes that HEC-RAS routes downstream. Knowledge of the peak arrival time helps improve operational decisions at the Grass Island Pool. This poster will compare and contrast results from the existing operational flow forecast and the new integrated LEOFS/HEC-RAS forecast. This additional model will supply the Niagara River Control Center operators with multiple forecasts of flow to help improve forecasting under a wider variety of conditions.

  8. Search for B Meson Decays to eta' eta' K

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B.

    2006-05-05

    The authors describe searches for decays of B mesons to the charmless final states {eta}'{eta}'K. The data consist of 228 million B{bar B} pairs produced in e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation, collected with the BABAR detector at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The 90% confidence level upper limits for the branching fractions are {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{eta}'K{sup 0}) < 31 x 10{sup -6} and {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} {eta}'{eta}'K{sup +}) < 25 x 10{sup -6}.

  9. Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Vineet Kumar; Davidson, Rachel Ann

    2007-02-01

    Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.

  10. Shipping emission forecasts and cost-benefit analysis of China ports and key regions' control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huan; Meng, Zhi-Hang; Shang, Yi; Lv, Zhao-Feng; Jin, Xin-Xin; Fu, Ming-Liang; He, Ke-Bin

    2018-05-01

    China established Domestic Emission Control Area (DECA) for sulphur since 2015 to constrain the increasing shipping emissions. However, future DECA policy-makings are not supported due to a lack of quantitive evaluations. To investigate the effects of current and possible Chinese DECAs policies, a model is presented for the forecast of shipping emissions and evaluation of potential costs and benefits of an DECA policy package set in 2020. It includes a port-level and regional-level projection accounting for shipping trade volume growth, share of ship types, and fuel consumption. The results show that without control measures, both SO 2 and particulate matter (PM) emissions are expected to increase by 15.3-61.2% in Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta from 2013 to 2020. However, most emissions can be reduced annually by the establishment of a DECA that depends on the size of the control area and the fuel sulphur content limit. Costs range from 0.667 to 1.561 billion dollars (control regional shipping emissions) based on current fuel price. A social cost method shows the regional control scenarios benefit-cost ratios vary from 4.3 to 5.1 with large uncertainty. Chemical transportation model combined with health model method is used to get the monetary health benefits and then compared with the results from social cost method. This study suggests that Chinese DECAs will reduce the projected emissions at a favorable benefit-cost ratio, and furthermore proposes policy combinations that provide high cost-effective benefits as a reference for future policy-making. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Search for the eta C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garren, L.A.

    1982-01-01

    In an experiment performed at the Alternating Gradient Synchrotron at Brookhaven National Laboratory, we searched for narrow resonances in the reaction pi minus p -> X n, X -> gamma gamma at 13 GeV. We used a double-arm spectrometer with lead glass and scintillation elements. No resonances were observed above mass 2.8 in the gamma-gamma spectrum. The upper limit for the eta c cross section times branching ratio is 23 pb

  12. A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System: Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yujie; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng; Wang, Mingjun

    2018-05-01

    A dual-resolution (DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-3D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution (HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution (LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/˜13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D variational (3DVar) analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar. Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.

  13. Forecasting typhoid fever incidence in the Cordillera administrative region in the Philippines using seasonal ARIMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawiding, Olive R.; Natividad, Gina May R.; Bato, Crisostomo V.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

    2017-11-01

    The prevalence of typhoid fever in developing countries such as the Philippines calls for a need for accurate forecasting of the disease. This will be of great assistance in strategic disease prevention. This paper presents a development of useful models that predict the behavior of typhoid fever incidence based on the monthly incidence in the provinces of the Cordillera Administrative Region from 2010 to 2015 using univariate time series analysis. The data used was obtained from the Cordillera Office of the Department of Health (DOH-CAR). Seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models were used to incorporate the seasonality of the data. A comparison of the results of the obtained models revealed that the SARIMA (1,1,7)(0,0,1)12 with a fixed coefficient at the seventh lag produces the smallest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The model suggested that for the year 2016, the number of cases would increase from the months of July to September and have a drop in December. This was then validated using the data collected from January 2016 to December 2016.

  14. Classification of rainfall events for weather forecasting purposes in andean region of Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez Hincapié, Joan Nathalie; Romo Melo, Liliana; Vélez Upegui, Jorge Julian; Chang, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    This work presents a comparative analysis of the results of applying different methodologies for the identification and classification of rainfall events of different duration in meteorological records of the Colombian Andean region. In this study the work area is the urban and rural area of Manizales that counts with a monitoring hydro-meteorological network. This network is composed of forty-five (45) strategically located stations, this network is composed of forty-five (45) strategically located stations where automatic weather stations record seven climate variables: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, rainfall, solar radiation and barometric pressure. All this information is sent wirelessly every five (5) minutes to a data warehouse located at the Institute of Environmental Studies-IDEA. With obtaining the series of rainfall recorded by the hydrometeorological station Palogrande operated by the National University of Colombia in Manizales (http://froac.manizales.unal.edu.co/bodegaIdea/); it is with this information that we proceed to perform behavior analysis of other meteorological variables, monitored at surface level and that influence the occurrence of such rainfall events. To classify rainfall events different methodologies were used: The first according to Monjo (2009) where the index n of the heavy rainfall was calculated through which various types of precipitation are defined according to the intensity variability. A second methodology that permitted to produce a classification in terms of a parameter β introduced by Rice and Holmberg (1973) and adapted by Llasat and Puigcerver, (1985, 1997) and the last one where a rainfall classification is performed according to the value of its intensity following the issues raised by Linsley (1977) where the rains can be considered light, moderate and strong fall rates to 2.5 mm / h; from 2.5 to 7.6 mm / h and above this value respectively for the previous classifications. The main

  15. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B.

    2005-01-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues

  16. Forecasting the regional distribution and sufficiency of physicians in Japan with a coupled system dynamics-geographic information system model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Tomoki; Fujiwara, Kensuke; Ohba, Hisateru; Suzuki, Teppei; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2017-09-12

    In Japan, the shortage of physicians has been recognized as a major medical issue. In our previous study, we reported that the absolute shortage will be resolved in the long term, but maldistribution among specialties will persist. To address regional shortage, several Japanese medical schools increased existing quota and established "regional quotas." This study aims to assist policy makers in designing effective policies; we built a model for forecasting physician numbers by region to evaluate future physician supply-demand balances. For our case study, we selected Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan, a region displaying disparities in healthcare services availability between urban and rural areas. We combined a system dynamics (SD) model with geographic information system (GIS) technology to analyze the dynamic change in spatial distribution of indicators. For Hokkaido overall and for each secondary medical service area (SMSA) within the prefecture, we analyzed the total number of practicing physicians. For evaluating absolute shortage and maldistribution, we calculated sufficiency levels and Gini coefficient. Our study covered the period 2010-2030 in 5-year increments. According to our forecast, physician shortage in Hokkaido Prefecture will largely be resolved by 2020. Based on current policies, we forecast that four SMSAs in Hokkaido will continue to experience physician shortages past that date, but only one SMSA would still be understaffed in 2030. The results show the possibility that diminishing imbalances between SMSAs would not necessarily mean that regional maldistribution would be eliminated, as seen from the sufficiency levels of the various SMSAs. Urgent steps should be taken to place doctors in areas where our forecasting model predicts that physician shortages could occur in the future.

  17. Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada's Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Rita; Teakles, Andrew; Baik, Jonathan; Vingarzan, Roxanne; Jones, Keith

    2018-05-01

    Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada's operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode

  18. Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

    2018-02-01

    A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

  19. High gain free electron laser at ETA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orzechowski, T.J.; Prosnitz, D.; Halbach, K.

    1983-01-01

    A single pass, tapered electron wiggler and associated beam transport has been constructed at the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The system is designed to transport 1 kA of 4.5 MeV electrons with an emittance of 30 millirad-cm. The planar wiggler is provided by a pulsed electromagnet. The interaction region is an oversized rectangular waveguide. Quadrupole fields stabilize the beam in the plane parallel to the wiggler field. The 3 meter long wiggler has a 9.8 cm period. The Free Electron Laser (FEL) will serve as an amplifier for input frequencies of 35 GHz and 140 GHz. The facility is designed to produce better than 500 Megawatts peak power

  20. Modeling the wind-fields of accidental releases with an operational regional forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albritton, J.R.; Lee, R.L.; Sugiyama, G.

    1995-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is an operational emergency preparedness and response organization supported primarily by the Departments of Energy and Defense. ARAC can provide real-time assessments of atmospheric releases of radioactive materials at any location in the world. ARAC uses robust three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data-acquisition systems, and an experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for nuclear accidents, the ARAC system has been adapted to also simulate non-radiological hazardous releases. For example, in 1991 ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. ARAC's operational simulation system, includes two three-dimensional finite-difference models: a diagnostic wind-field scheme, and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell transport and dispersion scheme. The meteorological component of ARAC's real-time response system employs models using real-time data from all available stations near the accident site to generate a wind-field for input to the transport and dispersion model. Here we report on simulation studies of past and potential release sites to show that even in the absence of local meteorological observational data, readily available gridded analysis and forecast data and a prognostic model, the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System, applied at an appropriate grid resolution can successfully simulate complex local flows

  1. Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

    2003-01-01

    Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes

  2. Regional PV power estimation and forecast to mitigate the impact of high photovoltaic penetration on electric grid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierro, Marco; De Felice, Matteo; Maggioni, Enrico; Moser, David; Perotto, Alessandro; Spada, Francesco; Cornaro, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The growing photovoltaic generation results in a stochastic variability of the electric demand that could compromise the stability of the grid and increase the amount of energy reserve and the energy imbalance cost. On regional scale, solar power estimation and forecast is becoming essential for Distribution System Operators, Transmission System Operator, energy traders, and aggregators of generation. Indeed the estimation of regional PV power can be used for PV power supervision and real time control of residual load. Mid-term PV power forecast can be employed for transmission scheduling to reduce energy imbalance and related cost of penalties, residual load tracking, trading optimization, secondary energy reserve assessment. In this context, a new upscaling method was developed and used for estimation and mid-term forecast of the photovoltaic distributed generation in a small area in the north of Italy under the control of a local DSO. The method was based on spatial clustering of the PV fleet and neural networks models that input satellite or numerical weather prediction data (centered on cluster centroids) to estimate or predict the regional solar generation. It requires a low computational effort and very few input information should be provided by users. The power estimation model achieved a RMSE of 3% of installed capacity. Intra-day forecast (from 1 to 4 hours) obtained a RMSE of 5% - 7% while the one and two days forecast achieve to a RMSE of 7% and 7.5%. A model to estimate the forecast error and the prediction intervals was also developed. The photovoltaic production in the considered region provided the 6.9% of the electric consumption in 2015. Since the PV penetration is very similar to the one observed at national level (7.9%), this is a good case study to analyse the impact of PV generation on the electric grid and the effects of PV power forecast on transmission scheduling and on secondary reserve estimation. It appears that, already with 7% of PV

  3. Mass loss from Eta Carinae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andriesse, C.D.; Viotti, R.

    1979-01-01

    This high luminosity (5x10 6 solar luminosity) star since 1840 is losing mass at the rate of 7.5x10 -2 solar masses per year. The large mass loss could be the result of vibrational instabilities produced in the CNO hydrogen burning phase of a very massive (160 solar masses) star. The presence of high excitation lines in the ultraviolet spectrum of Eta Car suggests the idea of a hot zone excited by dissipation of the supersonic turbulent flow. (Auth.)

  4. Searches for Charmless Decays B0 --> eta omega, B0 --> eta K0, B+ --> eta rho+, and B+ --> eta' pi+

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B

    2004-08-13

    The authors report results for measurements of the decay branching fractions of B{sup 0} to the charmless final states {eta}{omega} and {eta}K{sup 0}, and of B{sup +} to {eta}{rho}{sup +} and {eta}'{pi}{sup +}. None of these decays have been observed definitively. Measurements of the related decays B{sup +} --> {eta}K{sup +}, B{sup +} --> {eta}{pi}{sup +}, and B --> {eta}'K were published recently. Charmless decays with kaons are usually expected to be dominated by b --> s loop (''penguin'') transitions, while b --> u tree transitions are typically larger for the decays with pions and {rho} mesons. However the B --> {eta}K decays are especially interesting since they are suppressed relative to the abundant B --> {eta}'K decays due to destructive interference between two penguin amplitudes. The CKM-suppressed b --> u amplitudes may interfere significantly with penguin amplitudes, possibly leading to large direct CP violation in B{sup +} --> {eta}{rho}{sup +} and B{sup +} --> {eta}'{pi}{sup +}; numerical estimates are available in a few cases. The authors search for such direct CP violation by measuring the charge asymmetry A{sub ch} {equivalent_to} ({Gamma}{sup -} - {Gamma}{sup +})/({Gamma}{sup -} + {Gamma}{sup +}) in the rates {Gamma}{sup {+-}} = {Gamma}(B{sup {+-}} --> f{sup {+-}}), for each observed charged final state f{sup {+-}}. Charmless B decays are becoming useful to test the accuracy of theoretical predictions. Phenomenological fits to the branching fractions and charge asymmetries can be used to understand the importance of tree and penguin contributions and may provide sensitivity to the CKM angle {gamma}.

  5. Radiative decays of eta-eta'-mesons in quark nonlocal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efimov, G.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Nogovitsyn, E.A.

    1980-01-01

    Leading radiative decays of eta, eta'-mesons (P→γγ, P=π 0 ,eta,eta', eta→π + π - γ, eta→π 0 γγ, eta'→Vsub(γ)(V=rho 0 , ω)) are decribed within a quark nonlocal model. Decay widths and electromagnetic form factors for the P→γl + l - decay are calculated. Calculations are performed for two mixing angles (THETA=-11 deg and THETA=-18 deg). For the case when THETA=-11 deg good agreement with experiment is achieved

  6. MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events. MAG4 does not forecast that a flare will occur at a particular time in the next 24 or 48 hours; rather the probability of one occurring.

  7. Radiative decay of the eta-, eta'-mesons in the nonlocal quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efimov, G.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Nogovitsyn, E.A.

    1981-01-01

    P→γγ (P=π 0 , eta, eta'), eta→π + π - γ, eta→π 0 γγ, eta 1 →Vγ (V=rho 0 , ω), p→γl + l - (p=π 0 , eta, eta') radiation decays are studied for testing the applicability of the non-local quark model for description of the experimental data. The Feynman diagrams of these decays are presented, values of the widths of the Veta→γγ, eta→π + π - γ, eta→π 0 γγ, eta'→γγ, eta'→rho 0 γ, eta'→ωγ decays are calculated and given in the form of a table. Calculations are carried out for two values of the eta eta'-crossing angle: THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. Values of invariant amplitudes of these decays are determined for π 0 →γe + e - , eta→γμ + μ - , eta'→γμ + μ - decays at THETA=-11 deg and -18 deg. The best agreement with the experimental data is noted to take place at THETA=-11 deg, the determined width of the eta→π 0 γγ decays is underestimated as compared with the experimental one [ru

  8. A measurement of the eta' spin parity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerrada, M.; Wagner, F.; Chaloupka, V.; Hemingway, R.J.; Holmgren, S.O.; Losty, M.J.; Loverre, P.F.; Marzano, F.; Blokzijl, R.; Jongejans, B.; Massaro, G.G.G.; Schotanus, D.J.; Tiecke, H.G.; Timmermans, J.J.M.; Foster, B.; McDowell, W.L.

    1977-01-01

    The spin parity of the eta'(958) is studied in the reaction K - p→eta'Λ at 4.2 GeV/c, using bubble chamber data with a statistical sensitivity of 128 events/μb. The data unambiguously prefer the 0 - assignment. (Auth.)

  9. A measurement of the eta ' spin parity

    CERN Document Server

    Cerrada, M; Chaloupka, V; Foster, B; Hemingway, R J; Holmgren, S O; Jongejans, B; Losty, Michael J; Loverre, P F; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McDowell, W L; Schotanus, D J; Tiecke, H G; Timmermans, J; Wagner, F

    1977-01-01

    The spin parity of the eta '(958) is studied in the reaction K/sup -/p to eta ' Lambda at 4.2 GeV/c, using bubble chamber data with a statistical sensitivity of 128 events/ mu b. The data unambiguously prefer the 0/sup -/ assignment. (18 refs).

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01-01 to 2007-09-05

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) was developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center, the...

  11. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kukkonen, J.; Olsson, T.; Schultz, D.M.; Baklanov, A.; Klein, T.; Miranda, A.I.; Monteiro, A.; Hirtl, M.; Tarvainen, V.; Boy, M.; Peuch, V.H.; PoupKou, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Finardi, S.; Sofiev, M.; Sokhi, R.; Lehtinen, K.E.J.; Karatzas, K.; San José, R.; Astitha, M.; Kallos, G.; Schaap, M.; Reimer, E.; Jakobs, H.; Eben, Kryštof

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 12, - (2012), s. 1-87 ISSN 1680-7316 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : chemical weather * numerical models * operational forecasting * air Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 5.510, year: 2012

  12. Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Ivestigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    In this paper the wind speed forecasting in the Isla de Cedros in Baja California, in the Cerro de la Virgen in Zacatecas and in Holbox in Quintana Roo is presented. The time series utilized are average hourly wind speed data obtained directly from the measurements realized in the different sites during about one month. In order to do wind speed forecasting Hybrid models consisting of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed. The ARIMA models were first used to do the wind speed forecasting of the time series and then with the obtained errors ANN were built taking into account the nonlinear tendencies that the ARIMA technique could not identify, reducing with this the final errors. Once the Hybrid models were developed 48 data out of sample for each one of the sites were used to do the wind speed forecasting and the results were compared with the ARIMA and the ANN models working separately. Statistical error measures such as the mean error (ME), the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were calculated to compare the three methods. The results showed that the Hybrid models predict the wind velocities with a higher accuracy than the ARIMA and ANN models in the three examined sites. (author)

  13. A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model to forecast trapped particle fluxes over the SAA region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Suparta, W.; Gusrizal, G.; Kudela, Karel; Isa, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 3 (2017), s. 357-370 ISSN 1017-0839 R&D Projects: GA MŠk EF15_003/0000481 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : trapped particle * spatio-temporal * hierarchical Bayesian * forecasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 0.752, year: 2016

  14. Comparing the Accuracy of Copula-Based Multivariate Density Forecasts in Selected Regions of Support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G.H. Diks (Cees); V. Panchenko (Valentyn); O. Sokolinskiy (Oleg); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of copula-based multivariate density forecasts, focusing on a specific part of the joint distribution. The test is framed in the context of the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, but using (out-of-sample)

  15. Comparing the accuracy of copula-based multivariate density forecasts in selected regions of support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.; Panchenko, V.; Sokolinskiy, O.; van Dijk, D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of copula-based multivariate density forecasts, focusing on a specific part of the joint distribution. The test is framed in the context of the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, but using (out-of-sample) conditional

  16. Seasonal regional forecast of the minimum sea ice extent in the LapteV Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, B.; Brunette, C.; Newton, R.

    2017-12-01

    Late winter anomaly of sea ice export from the peripheral seas of the Atctic Ocean was found to be a useful predictor for the minimum sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean (Williams et al., 2017). In the following, we present a proof of concept for a regional seasonal forecast of the min SIE for the Laptev Sea based on late winter coastal divergence quantified using a Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) forced with satellite derived sea-ice drifts from the Polar Pathfinder. Following Nikolaeva and Sesterikov (1970), we track an imaginary line just offshore of coastal polynyas in the Laptev Sea from December of the previous year to May 1 of the following year using LITS. Results show that coastal divergence in the Laptev Sea between February 1st and May 1st is best correlated (r = -0.61) with the following September minimum SIE in accord with previous results from Krumpen et al. (2013, for the Laptev Sea) and Williams et a. (2017, for the pan-Arctic). This gives a maximum seasonal predictability of Laptev Sea min SIE anomalies from observations of approximately 40%. Coastal ice divergence leads to formation of thinner ice that melts earlier in early summer, hence creating areas of open water that have a lower albedo and trigger an ice-albedo feedback. In the Laptev Sea, we find that anomalies of coastal divergence in late winter are amplified threefold to result in the September SIE. We also find a correlation coefficient r = 0.49 between February-March-April (FMA) anomalies of coastal divergence with the FMA averaged AO index. Interestingly, the correlation is stronger, r = 0.61, when comparing the FMA coastal divergence anomalies to the DJFMA averaged AO index. It is hypothesized that the AO index at the beginning of the winter (and the associated anomalous sea ice export) also contains information that impact the magnitude of coastal divergence opening later in the winter. Our approach differs from previous approaches (e.g. Krumpen et al and Williams et al

  17. Study of $\\eta-\\eta'$ mixing from measurement of $B^0_{(s)}\\to J/\\psi\\eta^{(')}$ decay rates

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Bjørnstad, Pål Marius; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Brown, Henry; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casanova Mohr, Raimon; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew Christopher; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gastaldi, Ugo; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Geraci, Angelo; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jaton, Pierre; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leo, Sabato; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lowdon, Peter; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martín Sánchez, Alexandra; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Moggi, Niccolò; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Oggero, Serena; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Orlandea, Marius; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Arantza; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Perrin-Terrin, Mathieu; Pescatore, Luca; Pesen, Erhan; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Polikarpov, Sergey; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skillicorn, Ian; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilschut, Hans; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang

    2015-01-01

    A study of $B^0$and $B^0_s$ meson decays into $J/\\psi\\eta$ and $J/\\psi\\eta^{\\prime}$ final states is performed using a data set of proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment and corresponding to 3.0fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity. The decay $B^0 \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta^{\\prime}$ is observed for the first time. The following ratios of branching fractions are measured: $ \\frac{\\mathcal{B}(B^0 \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta^{\\prime})}{\\mathcal{B}(B^0_s \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta^{\\prime})} = (2.28\\pm0.65\\,(stat)\\,\\pm0.10\\,(syst)\\,\\pm0.13\\,(f_{s}/f_{d}))\\times10^{-2},$ $ \\frac{\\mathcal{B}(B^0 \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta)}{\\mathcal{B}(B^0_s \\rightarrow J/\\psi \\eta)} = (1.85\\pm0.61\\,(stat)\\,\\pm0.09\\,(syst)\\,\\pm0.11\\,(f_{s}/f_{d}))\\times10^{-2},$ where the third uncertainty is related to the present knowledge of $f_{s}/f_{d}$, the ratio between the probabilities for a $b$ quark to form a $B^0_s$ or $B^0$ meson. The branching fraction ratios are used to determine the para...

  18. Measurement of $\\mid\\eta_{00}\\mid^{2}$/$\\mid\\eta_{+-}\\mid^{2}$

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this experiment is an accurate determination of the ratio of neutral to charged two pion decays of $K_{L}$ and $K_{S}$ mesons: \\\\ R=$|\\eta_{00}|^{2}/|\\eta_{+-}|^{2} = \\Gamma(K _{L} \\rightarrow 2\\pi^{0})/\\Gamma(K _{S} \\rightarrow 2\\pi^{0}) : \\Gamma(K_{L} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})/\\Gamma(K_{S} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-})$ \\\\ In the superweak model of CP violation this ratio is equal to one exactly. Sizeable deviations from unity are predicted in popular models of the weak and electromagnetic interaction among six quarks. \\\\ The two decay modes $K^{0} \\rightarrow 2\\pi^{0}$ and $K^{0} \\rightarrow \\pi^{+}\\pi^{-}$ are measured simultaneously, and alternately in $K_{L}$ and $K_{S}$ beams. The detector consists of\\\\ 1) an evacuated decay region; \\\\ 2) proportional wire chambers to measure the charged pion directions; \\\\ 3) a liquid argon calorimeter with good energy and position resolution to measure the photons from $\\pi^{0}$ decays; \\\\ 4) a hadron calorimeter to measure the energy of the charged pio...

  19. A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    Probabilistic ensemble forecasts generated by the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methodology are subject to biases due to errors in the hydrological model's initial states. In day-to-day operations, hydrologists must compensate for discrepancies between observed and simulated states such as streamflow. However, in data-scarce regions, little to no information is available to guide the streamflow assimilation process. The manual assimilation process can then lead to more uncertainty due to the numerous options available to the forecaster. Furthermore, the model's mass balance may be compromised and could affect future forecasts. In this study we propose a data-driven approach in which specific variables that may be adjusted during assimilation are defined. The underlying principle was to identify key variables that would be the most appropriate to modify during streamflow assimilation depending on the initial conditions such as the time period of the assimilation, the snow water equivalent of the snowpack and meteorological conditions. The variables to adjust were determined by performing an automatic variational data assimilation on individual (or combinations of) model state variables and meteorological forcing. The assimilation aimed to simultaneously optimize: (1) the error between the observed and simulated streamflow at the timepoint where the forecasts starts and (2) the bias between medium to long-term observed and simulated flows, which were simulated by running the model with the observed meteorological data on a hindcast period. The optimal variables were then classified according to the initial conditions at the time period where the forecast is initiated. The proposed method was evaluated by measuring the average electricity generation of a hydropower complex in Québec, Canada driven by this method. A test-bed which simulates the real-world assimilation, forecasting, water release optimization and decision-making of a hydropower cascade was

  20. Development of a methodology for monthly forecasting of surface fires of Colombia's vegetation cover, an application to north Andean region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Hernandez, Yolanda; Rangel CH, Jesus Orlando

    2004-01-01

    In the present article a methodology is presented for the forecasting of the monthly risk of surface fires of the vegetation cover in Colombia, based on the analysis of meteorological components and variables of climatic and anthropic variability involved in fire risks of the north Andean region. The methodology enables one to regionalize the country, with fire prediction purposes in mind, into ten sub-regions, in each one of which seven height levels are defined to make up separate regions of study. For each of these, a database is built to feed both the logistic regression models and the Poisson models, which identify the variables independent from, and/or associated with the presence or absence of fires

  1. Eta Carinae: A Demanding Mistress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gull, Theodore

    2012-01-01

    In the 1840's a southern star, Eta Argus, brightened to rival Sirius for nearly a decade, then faded. Today, we see the Homunculus, an hourglass figure with tutu, a dusty shell exceeding 12 solar masses expanding outward at 500 km/s. Many observers have systematically studied the massive binary total shrouded by interacting winds and its ejecta. More recently 3-D wind-wind collision models have begun to explain the extended structures resolved by Hubble Space Telescope. Now Herschel Space Observatory infrared scans are revealing wind interaction emissions and complex molecules left over from the dust that formed out of gas originally overabundant in nitrogen and greatly-depleted in oxygen and carbon. Many questions remain to be answered: What is the dust that formed in the 1840s event? What are the end states of the two massive companions ... SN, GRB, Hypernova? and When

  2. Regional forecast model for the Olea pollen season in Extremadura (SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Rodríguez, Santiago; Durán-Barroso, Pablo; Silva-Palacios, Inmaculada; Tormo-Molina, Rafael; Maya-Manzano, José María; Gonzalo-Garijo, Ángela

    2016-10-01

    The olive tree ( Olea europaea) is a predominantly Mediterranean anemophilous species. The pollen allergens from this tree are an important cause of allergic problems. Olea pollen may be relevant in relation to climate change, due to the fact that its flowering phenology is related to meteorological parameters. This study aims to investigate airborne Olea pollen data from a city on the SW Iberian Peninsula, to analyse the trends in these data and their relationships with meteorological parameters using time series analysis. Aerobiological sampling was conducted from 1994 to 2013 in Badajoz (SW Spain) using a 7-day Hirst-type volumetric sampler. The main Olea pollen season lasted an average of 34 days, from May 4th to June 7th. The model proposed to forecast airborne pollen concentrations, described by one equation. This expression is composed of two terms: the first term represents the resilience of the pollen concentration trend in the air according to the average concentration of the previous 10 days; the second term was obtained from considering the actual pollen concentration value, which is calculated based on the most representative meteorological variables multiplied by a fitting coefficient. Due to the allergenic characteristics of this pollen type, it should be necessary to forecast its short-term prevalence using a long record of data in a city with a Mediterranean climate. The model obtained provides a suitable level of confidence to forecast Olea airborne pollen concentration.

  3. Forecasting the Optimal Factors of Formation of the Population Savings as the Basis for Investment Resources of the Regional Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odintsova Tetiana M.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the optimal factors of formation of the population savings as the basis for investment resources of the regional economy. A factorial (nonlinear correlative-regression analysis of the formation of savings of the population of Ukraine was completed. On its basis a forecast of the optimal structure and volumes of formation of the population incomes was carried out taking into consideration impact of fundamental factors on these incomes. Such approach provides to identify the marginal volumes of tax burden, population savings, and capital investments, directed to economic growth.

  4. THE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES ACCEPTANCE (ETA) PROGRAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behr-Andres, Christina B.

    2001-01-01

    The Environmental Technologies Acceptance (ETA) Program at the Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) is intended to advance the development, commercial acceptance, and timely deployment of selected private sector technologies for the cleanup of sites in the nuclear defense complex as well as the greater market. As shown in Table 1, this cooperative agreement funded by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) consists of three tasks: Technology Selection, Technology Development, and Technology Verification. As currently conceived, the ETA will address the needs of as many technologies as appropriate under its current 3-year term. This report covers activities during the first 6 months of the 3-year ETA program

  5. Recent developments in the applications of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for emergency response planning and operational forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyons, W.A.; Tremback, C.J.

    1996-01-01

    The authors will summarize ten years of developing and applying the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to emergency response and operational dispersion forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). RAMS forms the core of two workstation-based operational systems, ERDAS (the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System) and PROWESS (Parallelized RAMS Operational Weather Simulation System) which are undergoing extensive operational testing prior to potential deployment as part of the range forecasting system at KSC. RAMS has been interfaced with HYPACT (the Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport Model) to produce detailed 3-D dispersion forecasts from a variety of sources including cold spills, routine launch operations, and explosive conflagrations of launch vehicles

  6. Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargreaves, Anthony; Cheng, Vicky; Deshmukh, Sandip; Leach, Matthew; Steemers, Koen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An innovative model for testing combinations of spatial planning and decentralised energy supply. • An improved method of modelling the spatial variability of energy consumption per dwelling type. • Shows how spatial planning would affect the future carbon reduction of decentralised supply. • Forecasts the future carbon reduction and costs of retrofitting and decentralised supply. • A method of forecasting how residential space would affect the suitability of decentralised supply. - Abstract: Low carbon energy supply technologies are increasingly used at the building and community scale and are an important part of the government decarbonisation strategy. However, with their present state of development and costs, many of these decentralised technologies rely on public subsidies to be financially viable. It is questionable whether they are cost effective compared to other ways of reducing carbon emissions, such as decarbonisation of conventional supply and improving the energy efficiency of dwellings. Previous studies have found it difficult to reliably estimate the future potential of decentralised supply because this depends on the available residential space which varies greatly within a city region. To address this problem, we used an integrated modelling framework that converted the residential density forecasts of a regional model into a representation of the building dimensions and land of the future housing stock. This included a method of estimating the variability of the dwellings and residential land. We present the findings of a case study of the wider south east regions of England that forecasted the impacts of energy efficiency and decentralised supply scenarios to year 2031. Our novel and innovative method substantially improves the spatial estimates of energy consumption compared to building energy models that only use standard dwelling typologies. We tested the impact of an alternative spatial planning policy on the future

  7. A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

    2017-01-01

    We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

  8. Powers of Eta from Fay's identities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zuevsky, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 19 (2016), s. 135-141 ISSN 1822-511X Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : modular forms * Fay's trisecant identities * $eta$-function Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics

  9. Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available and Gertler, 1995), but also because changes in house prices tend to have important wealth effects on consumption (International Monetary Fund, 2000) and investment (Topel and Rosen, 1988), the importance of forecasting house price infl ation is vital, since... sections, respectively, lay out the DFM and outline the basics of the VAR, the Minnesota-type BVARs, and the SBVARs based on the fi rst-order spatial contiguity (FOSC) and the random walk averaging (RWA) priors developed by LeSage and Pan (1995) and Le...

  10. Improving regional climate and hydrological forecasting following the record setting flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Seglenieks, F.; Bruxer, J.; Fortin, V.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the spring of 2017, water levels across Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River exceeded record high levels, leading to widespread flooding, damage to property, and controversy over regional dam operating protocols. Only a few years earlier, water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron (upstream of Lake Ontario) had dropped to record low levels leading to speculation that either anthropogenic controls or climate change were leading to chronic water loss from the Great Lakes. The contrast between low water level conditions across Earth's largest lake system from the late 1990s through 2013, and the rapid rise prior to the flooding in early 2017, underscores the challenges of quantifying and forecasting hydrologic impacts of rising regional air and water temperatures (and associated changes in lake evaporation) and persistent increases in long-term precipitation. Here, we assess the hydrologic conditions leading to the recent record flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system, with a particular emphasis on understanding the extent to which those conditions were consistent with observed and anticipated changes in historical and future climate, and the extent to which those conditions could have been anticipated through improvements in seasonal climate outlooks and hydrological forecasts.

  11. Measurements of the branching fractions of the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D-0 -> omega eta, eta(()'())pi(0) and eta(()'())eta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M.N.; Ahmed, S.; Albrecht, M.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Haddadi, Z.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Löhner, H.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Tiemens, M.

    2018-01-01

    By analyzing a data sample of 2.93 fb(-1) collected at root s = 3.773 GeV with the BESIII detector operated at the BEPCII storage rings, we measure the branching fractions B(D-0 -> omega eta) = (2.15 +/- 0.17(stat) +/- 0.15(sys)) x 10(-3), B(D-0 ->eta pi(0)) = (0.58 +/- 0.05(stat) +/- 0.05(sys)) x

  12. Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

    2015-04-01

    The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model

  13. ETA-II accelerator upgrades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilson, D.G.; Deadrick, F.J.; Hibbs, S.M.; Sampayan, S.E.; Petersen, D.E.

    1991-09-01

    We discuss recent improvements to the ETA-II linear induction electron accelerator. The accelerator's cells have been carefully reconditioned to raise the maximum accelerating gap voltage from approximately 100 kV to 125 kV. Insulators of Rexolite plastic in a new ''zero-gap'' arrangement replaced the alumina originals after several alternative materials were investigated. A new multi-cable current feed system will be used to eliminate pulse reflection interactions encountered in earlier experiments. Improved alignment fixtures have been installed to help minimize beam perturbation due to poorly aligned intercell magnets between 10-cell groups. A stretched wire alignment technique (SWAT) has been utilized to enhance overall magnetic alignment, and to characterize irreducible alignment errors. These changes are in conjunction with an expansion of the accelerator from a 20-cell to a 60-cell configuration. When completed, the upgraded accelerator is expected to deliver 2.5 kA of electron beam current at 7.5 MeV in bursts of up to fifty 70-ns pulses at a 5-kHz repetition rate. A 5.5-meter-long wiggler will convert the energy into 3-GW microwave pulses at 140 GHz for plasma heating experiments in the Microwave Tokamak Experiment (MTX)

  14. Characteristics of the ETA gun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, A.C.; Neil, V.K.; Craig, G.D.; Fessenden, T.J.

    1981-01-01

    The Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) is a linear induction device consisting of a 2.5-MV electron gun and ten 0.25-MV accelerating units designed to produce a 10-kA beam of electrons at 5 MeV. Calculations with the computer code EBQ as well as experimental measurements indicate that the current produced by the gun is limited by two phenomena. The first arises from the variation of particle energy with time during the pulse. Only particles with energy within a limited range can be transported by the focusing coils in the gun: therefore the variation of the gun's output current with time is determined by the coil settings. The second effect results from a collective interaction at sufficiently large current to cause a virtual cathode to form a few centimeters past the extraction grid. Operation in this regime results in greatly increased beam emittance and poor beam transport through the accelerator. Results of the code calculations are compared with experimental data and found to be in good agreement. (author)

  15. Eta Carinae - A Demanding Mistress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gull, Theodore R.

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, a number of observers and modelers have increasingly focused on this massive system that is approaching its end stage, a supernova? a hypernova? When? The discovery by Augusto Damineli that Eta Carinae had a 5.5-year period proved timely as the newly-installed STIS was primed to observe its properties in the visible and ultraviolet. Initial observations occurred on January 1998, and through multiple programs, including the multi-cycle Hubble Treasury program, have sampled changes across two cycles. Now a multi-cycle program, focused on mapping variations in the extended wind-wind collision zones through early 2015, will test 3-D models of the interacting winds. In parallel, studies have been accomplished in X-rays with RXTE and CHANDRA, now in the far infrared with Herschel and from the ground with VLT. Each new observation is helping to peel back the veil of mystery on this massive binary system, but also opening up more questions to be answered. Timely inclusion of laboratory studies and models have greatly enhanced the observational results. We will summarize the latest results including submitted papers and very recent results with Herschel.

  16. Incorporating Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Seasonal Crop Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa to Support National/Regional/Local Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides seasonal assessments of crop conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and other food insecure regions. These assessments and current livelihood, nutrition, market conditions and conflicts are used to generate food security scenarios that help national, regional and local decision makers target their resources and mitigate socio-economic losses. Among the various tools that FEWS NET uses is the FAO's Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). The WRSI is a simple yet powerful crop assessment model that incorporates current moisture conditions (at the time of the issuance of forecast), precipitation scenarios, potential evapotranspiration and crop parameters to categorize crop conditions into different classes ranging from "failure" to "very good". The WRSI tool has been shown to have a good agreement with local crop yields in the GHA region. At present, the precipitation scenarios used to drive the WRSI are based on either a climatological forecast (that assigns equal chances of occurrence to all possible scenarios and has no skill over the forecast period) or a sea-surface temperature anomaly based scenario (which at best have skill at the seasonal scale). In both cases, the scenarios fail to capture the skill that can be attained by initial atmospheric conditions (i.e., medium-range weather forecasts). During the middle of a cropping season, when a week or two of poor rains can have a devastating effect, two weeks worth of skillful precipitation forecasts could improve the skill of the crop scenarios. With this working hypothesis, we examine the value of incorporating medium-range weather forecasts in improving the skill of crop scenarios in the GHA region. We use the NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) weather forecasts and examine the skill of crop scenarios generated using the GEFS weather forecasts with respect to the scenarios based solely on the climatological forecast

  17. Applying Markov Chains for NDVI Time Series Forecasting of Latvian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepchenko Arthur

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series of earth observation based estimates of vegetation inform about variations in vegetation at the scale of Latvia. A vegetation index is an indicator that describes the amount of chlorophyll (the green mass and shows the relative density and health of vegetation. NDVI index is an important variable for vegetation forecasting and management of various problems, such as climate change monitoring, energy usage monitoring, managing the consumption of natural resources, agricultural productivity monitoring, drought monitoring and forest fire detection. In this paper, we make a one-step-ahead prediction of 7-daily time series of NDVI index using Markov chains. The choice of a Markov chain is due to the fact that a Markov chain is a sequence of random variables where each variable is located in some state. And a Markov chain contains probabilities of moving from one state to other.

  18. Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley

    2011-01-01

    NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

  19. Measurement of CP asymmetries in D-+/- -> eta 'pi(+/-) and D-S(+/-) -> eta 'pi(+/-) decays

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dufour, L.; Mulder, M; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Pellegrino, A.; Tolk, S.; van Veghel, M.

    2017-01-01

    A search for CP violation in D-+/- -> eta 'pi(+/-) and D-S(+/-) -> eta 'pi(+/-) decays is performed using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb(-1), recorded by the LHCb experiment at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV. The measured CP-violating charge

  20. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Approach for GSTARIMA Model to Forecast Rain Fall Data in Malang Southern Region Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Choirun Nisak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting models can be used to predict phenomena that occur in nature. Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR is one of time series model used to forecast the data consisting the elements of time and space. This model is limited to the stationary and non-seasonal data. Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA is GSTAR development model that accommodates the non-stationary and seasonal data. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS is method used to estimate parameter of GSTARIMA model. Estimation parameter of GSTARIMA model using OLS will not produce efficiently estimator if there is an error correlation between spaces. Ordinary Least Square (OLS assumes the variance-covariance matrix has a constant error ~(, but in fact, the observatory spaces are correlated so that variance-covariance matrix of the error is not constant. Therefore, Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR approach is used to accommodate the weakness of the OLS. SUR assumption is ~(, for estimating parameters GSTARIMA model. The method to estimate parameter of SUR is Generalized Least Square (GLS. Applications GSTARIMA-SUR models for rainfall data in the region Malang obtained GSTARIMA models ((1(1,12,36,(0,(1-SUR with determination coefficient generated with the average of 57.726%.

  1. Methodical Approaches To Analysis And Forecasting Of Development Fuel And Energy Complex And Gas Industry In The Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Andreyevich Tsybatov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Fuel and energy complex (FEC is one of the main elements of the economy of any territory over which intertwine the interests of all economic entities. To ensure economic growth of the region should ensure that internal balance of energy resources, which should be developed with account of regional specifics of economic growth and energy security. The study examined the status of this equilibrium, indicating fuel and energy balance of the region (TEB. The aim of the research is the development of the fuel and energy balance, which will allow to determine exactly how many and what resources are not enough to ensure the regional development strategy and what resources need to be brought in. In the energy balances as the focus of displays all issues of regional development, so thermopile is necessary as a mechanism of analysis of current issues, economic development, and in the forward-looking version — as a tool future vision for the fuel and energy complex, energy threats and ways of overcoming them. The variety of relationships in the energy sector with other sectors and aspects of society lead to the fact that the development of the fuel and energy balance of the region have to go beyond the actual energy sector, involving the analysis of other sectors of economy, as well as systems such as banking, budgetary, legislative, tax. Due to the complexity of the discussed problems, the obvious is the need to develop appropriate forecast-analytical system, allowing regional authorities to implement evidence-based predictions of the consequences of management decisions. Multivariant scenario study on development of fuel and energy complex and separately industry, to use the methods of project-based management, harmonized application of state regulation of strategic and market mechanisms on the operational directions of development of fuel and energy complex and separately industry in the economy of the region.

  2. Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiferl, Luke D.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Case, Jonathan L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs

  3. Earthquake forecast for the Wasatch Front region of the Intermountain West

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuRoss, Christopher B.

    2016-04-18

    The Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities has assessed the probability of large earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region. There is a 43 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquakes and a 57 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years. These results highlight the threat of large earthquakes in the region.

  4. Forecast models for urban extreme temperatures : Karachi region as a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, A.; Ansari, M.R.K.

    2010-01-01

    The climatic signature of global warming is both local and global. The forcing by increasing greenhouse gases is global, so there is clearly a global component to the climatic signature. Moreover, the damaging impacts of global warming are manifesting themselves around the world in the form of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all of which have been escalating in frequency and intensity. Furthermore, it is a well-known fact that there is high degree of uncertainty surrounding projections of basic climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation. However, numerous authors have explored many of these effects individually and have begun exploring the interactions between climate change-induced impacts in different sectors of urban activities. Therefore, it is safe to say that an attempt to conduct a definitive, comprehensive analysis of all the potential impacts of climate change on the urban structure is premature at present. This communication attempts to examine the trends in maximum monthly urban temperature fluctuations. Analysis reveals increasing trends in urban temperature fluctuations showing effect of Karachi industrializations. Forecast models also suggest future scenario with respect to occurrence of extreme temperature. The analysis carried out in this work would be useful for urban planners for sustainable future development, economists and environmentalists etc. (author)

  5. Verificación de los pronosticos del modelo BRAMS centrado en la region subtropical de Sudamerica BRAMS forecast verification over a region of subtropical Southamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanina García Skabar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo del presente trabajo es realizar una verificación de los pronósticos generados en el Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos de la Universidad de Buenos Aires con el modelo Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(BRAMS. Utilizando dicho modelo, desde 2006, se realizan dos pronósticos al día por un plazo de 72 horas en dos retículas anidadas con una resolución horizontal de 80 y 20km. La retícula de mayor resolución abarca Paraguay, Uruguay, Sur de Brasil y Bolivia y el centro y norte de Argentina y Chile. En este trabajo se realiza la verificación sobre el dominio de mayor resolución para el período desde abril de 2006 a diciembre de 2008. El interés se centra en verificar los pronósticos de precipitación, y de los perfiles verticales de temperatura, humedad y viento en las localidades donde se dispone de datos de radiosondeos. La verificación de los pronósticos de precipitación se realiza mediante estadísticos calculados frente a las observaciones convencionales disponibles y frente a estimaciones de precipitación CMORPH. Los resultados son similares a los obtenidos en la región con modelos de aproximadamente la misma resolución. Además se identifican las deficiencias principales de los pronósticos lo que permitirá realizar ajustes en la configuración del mismo para mejorar su desempeño.The aim of this work is to verify the forecasts generated in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Ocean, University of Buenos Aires with the Brazilian model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS. Since year 2006, every day two different forecasts that extend for 72 hours have been performed using two nested grids with an horizontal resolution of 80 and 20 km. The higher resolution domain covers Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Bolivia and the central and northern part of Argentina and Chile. This paper presents the results of the verification of the model in the higher resolution

  6. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  7. Measurement of Branching Fractions and Charge Asymmetries in B Meson Decays to eta(prime)K*, eta(prime)rho, and eta pi

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, W

    2003-01-01

    The present preliminary measurements of branching fractions and charge asymmetries for the B meson decays B -> eta(prime) K*, B -> eta(prime)rho, and B sup + -> eta(prime)pi sup +. The data were recorded with the BABAR detector at PEP-II and correspond to 89 x 10 sup 6 B(bar B) pairs produced in e sup + e sup - annihilation through the UPSILON(4S) resonance. They find the branching fractions BETA(B sup 0 -> eta K* sup 0) = (19.0 sub - sub 2 sub . sub 1 sup + sup 2 sup . sup 2 +- 1.3) x 10 sup - sup 6 , BETA(B sup + -> eta K* sup +) = (25.7 sub - sub 3 sub . sub 6 sup + sup 3 sup . sup 8 +- 1.8) x 10 sup - sup 6 with 90% confidence, and BETA(B sup + -> eta(prime)pi sup +) = (2.8 sub - sub 1 sub . sub 0 sup + sup 1 sup . sup 3 +- 0.3) x 10 sup - sup 6 ( eta(prime)K* sup 0) eta(prime)K* sup +) < 12 x 10 sup - sup 6. The time-integrated charge asymmetries are A sub c sub h (eta K* sup 0) = +0.03 +- 0.11 +- 0.02, A sub c sub h (eta K* sup +) = +0.15 +- 0.14 +- 0.02, and A sub c sub h (eta rho sup +) = +0.06 +-...

  8. Some reasoning on the improvement of the ETAS modeling at the occurrence of the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Lombardi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an application of the ETAS model to the first 20 days of the 2016 central Italy sequence. Despite of the provisional nature of data, the model is able to describe the occurrence rate, but for the first hours after the mainshock occurrence. A sensitivity analysis of the model to two uncertainty sources, the model parameters and the occurrence history, shows that the second has a main role in controlling the performance of the ETAS model, more than the uncertainty on parameters. Previous results, together with the clear inability of ETAS to forecast the occurrence of a sequence before its starting time, give important suggestions about possible improvements. Here, a very preliminary attempt in this sense is presented.

  9. Eta-expansion does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1996-01-01

    Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta-expansion, and a p......Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta...... across dynamic case expressions. This requirement precisely accounts for the nonstandard use of continuation-passing style encountered in partial evaluation. Eta-expansion thus acts as a uniform binding-time coercion between values and contexts, be they of function type, product type, or disjoint...

  10. Inclusive eta production at large transverse momenta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donaldson, G.J.; Gordon, H.A.; Lai, K.; Stumer, I.; Barnes, A.V.; Mellema, D.J.; Tollestrup, A.V.; Walker, R.L.; Dahl, O.; Johnson, R.; Ogawa, A.; Pripstein, M.; Shannon, S.

    1978-01-01

    We have measured the ratio of inclusive production of eta to π 0 at transverse momenta above 1.5 GeV/c. Results are presented for various meson and proton beams with momenta of 100, 200, and 300 GeV/c incident upon a hydrogen target. The eta/π 0 production ratio is found to be independent of incident beam momentum and of the transverse and longitudinal momenta of production. The ratio for pion- and proton-induced reactions is 0.44 +- 0.05; for kaons, it is 0.74 +- 0.12

  11. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2018-06-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  12. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-08-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  13. Organometallic Trinuclear Niobium Cluster Complex in Aqueous Solution: Synthesis and Characterization of Niobium Complexes Containing Nb-3(mu-eta(2):eta(2) (perpendicular to)-NCCH3)(mu(2)-O)(3)(6+) Cluster Core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, H.A.N.; Hansson, G. K.; Kozlova, S.G.

    2010-01-01

    ) and a broad peak at 565 nm (epsilon similar to 335 M-1 cm(-1)) in the UV-visible region. It is electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR)-active (g = 1.98), but no hyperfine interaction with the Nb-93 nuclear spin (I = 9/2) was observed. The cyclic voltammogram of [Nb-3(mu-eta(2):eta(2)-NCCH3)O-3(H2O)(9)](6+) in 4...

  14. [Forecast of physician workforce in the 22 French regions (1998-2013)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coste, Emmanuel; Doan, Bui Dang Ha

    2003-01-01

    The first chapter provides detailed information on the methodology and data used. As were the other projections carried out in the past by the Centre de sociologie et de démographie médicales, the present work is basically a demographic projection. Whereas a projection of national workforce uses the total number of annual new graduates as inflow, a regional projection has to collect other types of data, as new graduates move freely from one region to another. This fundamental difference implies the use of more complex models for predicting the flows of newcomers at regional level. As concerns the outflow, a single table covering retirement and death is used for all regions. The medical profession is a homogeneous group and such a decision is not irrelevant. The second chapter presents briefly the results of the work as concerns one region. In the high variant, the regional number of physicians will continue to increase from 1998 to 2007 or 2008, then it will decrease. In the low variant, the growth will end in 2004 or 2005, followed by a stronger decreasing process. The decrease is caused by the "graduate boom" cohorts (doctors graduated during the 70's and 80's) reaching retirement age. Given the duration of medical training, the decrease will take place even if the numerous clausus (at the start of medical training) rises steadily right now. The decrease in the number of physicians will be accompanied by an aging process: the proportion of senior active doctors will raise and that of junior doctors will diminish. The third chapter evidences the diversity of the various regional trends.

  15. Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyeong Ok; Yuk, Jin-Hee; Jung, Kyung Tae; Kuh Kang, Suk

    2017-04-01

    The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest, straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors on the track shows the differences of 100 km in 48-hour prediction and200 km in 72-hour prediction on average. The best results on the track prediction are shown in the D2 case of WRF model. However, underestimation of the maximum wind speed of WRF prediction still exists, obviously requiring better understanding of RI-related processes to improve the model prediction.

  16. Determining the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes of PFI data in central region Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad Kamaruddin, Saadi Bin; Md Ghani, Nor Azura; Mohamed Ramli, Norazan

    2013-04-01

    The concept of Private Financial Initiative (PFI) has been implemented by many developed countries as an innovative way for the governments to improve future public service delivery and infrastructure procurement. However, the idea is just about to germinate in Malaysia and its success is still vague. The major phase that needs to be given main attention in this agenda is value for money whereby optimum efficiency and effectiveness of each expense is attained. Therefore, at the early stage of this study, estimating unitary charges or materials price indexes in each region in Malaysia was the key objective. This particular study aims to discover the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes in construction industry by different regions in the central region of Peninsular Malaysia (Selangor, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka). The unitary charges indexes data used were from year 2002 to 2011 monthly data of different states in the central region Peninsular Malaysia, comprising price indexes of aggregate, sand, steel reinforcement, ready mix concrete, bricks and partition, roof material, floor and wall finishes, ceiling, plumbing materials, sanitary fittings, paint, glass, steel and metal sections, timber and plywood. At the end of the study, it was found that Backpropagation Neural Network with linear transfer function produced the most accurate and reliable results for estimating unitary charges price indexes in every states in central region Peninsular Malaysia based on the Root Mean Squared Errors, where the values for both estimation and evaluation sets were approximately zero and highly significant at p Malaysia. The estimated price indexes of construction materials will contribute significantly to the value for money of PFI as well as towards Malaysian economical growth.

  17. On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

    The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

  18. System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents a methodology that combines the power of an Artificial Neural Network and Information Theory to forecast variables describing the condition of a regional system. The novelty and strength of this approach is in the application of Fisher information, a key metho...

  19. Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

    2015-01-01

    The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...

  20. A comparative study of artificial neural network, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and support vector machine for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhibin; Wen, Xiaohu; Liu, Hu; Du, Jun

    2014-02-01

    Data driven models are very useful for river flow forecasting when the underlying physical relationships are not fully understand, but it is not clear whether these data driven models still have a good performance in the small river basin of semiarid mountain regions where have complicated topography. In this study, the potential of three different data driven methods, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region, northwestern China. The models analyzed different combinations of antecedent river flow values and the appropriate input vector has been selected based on the analysis of residuals. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in training and validation sets are compared with the observed data. The model which consists of three antecedent values of flow has been selected as the best fit model for river flow forecasting. To get more accurate evaluation of the results of ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, the four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and mean absolute relative error (MARE), were employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. The results indicate that the performance obtained by ANN, ANFIS and SVM in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation period does not vary substantially; the performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in river flow forecasting was satisfactory. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the SVM model performed better than ANN and ANFIS in river flow forecasting for the validation data sets. The results also suggest that ANN, ANFIS and SVM method can be successfully applied to establish river flow with complicated topography forecasting models in the semiarid mountain regions.

  1. Forecasting Food Supply Chain Developments in Lagging Rural Regions: Evidence from the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilbery, Brian; Maye, Damian; Kneafsey, Moya; Jenkins, Tim; Walkley, Catherine

    2004-01-01

    Endemic problems in EU "lagging rural regions" (LRRs) are well documented and various support mechanisms have long been in place to help overcome structural difficulties. Nevertheless, new rural development architectures are now being sought and some scholars have posited that LRRs may benefit from the "quality (re)turn" in…

  2. Application of HEC-RAS for flood forecasting in perched river-A case study of hilly region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Pingping; Wang, Shuqian; Gan, Hong; Liu, Bin; Jia, Ling

    2017-04-01

    Flooding in small and medium rivers are seriously threatening the safety of human beings’ life and property. The simulation forecasting of the river flood and bank risk in hilly region has gradually become a hotspot. At present, there are few studies on the simulation of hilly perched river, especially in the case of lacking section flow data. And the method of how to determine the position of the levee breach along the river bank is not much enough. Based on the characteristics of the sections in hilly perched river, an attempt is applied in this paper which establishes the correlation between the flow profile computed by HEC-RAS model and the river bank. A hilly perched river in Lingshi County, Shanxi Province of China, is taken as the study object, the levee breach positions along the bank are simulated under four different design storm. The results show that the flood control standard of upper reach is high, which can withstand the design storm of 100 years. The current standard of lower reach is low, which is the flooding channel with high frequency. As the standard of current channel between the 2rd and the 11th section is low, levee along that channel of the river bank is considered to be heighten and reinforced. The study results can provide some technical support for flood proofing in hilly region and some reference for the reinforcement of river bank.

  3. Understanding eta' → etaππ and allied processes despite Adler zeros

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhanam, I.; Chakrabarty, S.; Mitra, A.N.

    1979-01-01

    With use of the (hitherto obscure) negative-parity meson matrix N/sub +/ of partial symmetry, an eta' → etaππ amplitude, explicitly satisfying the Adler conditions, has been constructed within the relativistic quark pair-creation model without any adjustable parameters. The model yields a total eta' width of 388 keV and etaππ, rho 0 γ, and γγ branching ratios of 68.0%, 29.9%, and 1.88%, all in excellent agreement with data. The same model gives the π-π scattering lengths as m/sub π/a 0 =0.19, m/sub π/a 2 =-0.08

  4. Observation of High Momentum {ital {eta}}{sup {prime}} Production in {ital B} Decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Browder, T.E.; Li, Y.; Rodriguez, J.L. [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 (United States); Bergfeld, T.; Eisenstein, B.I.; Ernst, J.; Gladding, G.E.; Gollin, G.D.; Hans, R.M.; Johnson, E.; Karliner, I.; Marsh, M.A.; Palmer, M.; Selen, M.; Thaler, J.J. [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois 61801 (United States); Edwards, K.W.; Edwards, K.W. [the Institute of Particle Physics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Bellerive, A.; Bellerive, A.; Janicek, R.; Janicek, R.; MacFarlane, D.B.; MacFarlane, D.B.; Patel, P.M.; Patel, P.M. [the Institute of Particle Physics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Sadoff, A.J. [Ithaca College, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States); Ammar, R.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Besson, D.; Coppage, D.; Darling, C.; Davis, R.; Kotov, S.; Kravchenko, I.; Kwak, N.; Zhou, L. [University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045 (United States); Anderson, S.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, S.J.; ONeill, J.J.; Poling, R.; Riehle, T.; Smith, A. [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 (United States); Alam, M.S.; Athar, S.B.; Ling, Z.; Mahmood, A.H.; Timm, S.; Wappler, F. [State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York 12222 (United States); Anastassov, A.; Duboscq, J.E.; Fujino, D.; Gan, K.K.; Hart, T.; Honscheid, K.; Kagan, H.; Kass, R.; Lee, J.; Spencer, M.B.; Sung, M.; Undrus, A.; Wolf, A.; Zoeller, M.M. [The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States); Nemati, B.; Richichi, S.J.; Ross, W.R.; Severini, H.; Skubic, P. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Bishai, M.; Fast, J.; Hinson, J.W.; Menon, N.; Miller, D.H.; Shibata, E.I.; Shipsey, I.P.; Yurko, M. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Glenn, S.; Kwon, Y.; Lyon, A.L.; Roberts, S.; Thorndike, E.H. [University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627 (United States); Jessop, C.P.; Lingel, K.; Marsiske, H.; Perl, M.L.; Savinov, V.; Ugolini, D.; Zhou, X.; and others

    1998-08-01

    We report the first observation of B{r_arrow}{eta}{sup {prime}}X transitions with high momentum {eta}{sup {prime}} mesons. We observe 39.0{plus_minus}11.6 B decay events with 2.0{lt}p{sub {eta}{sup {prime}}}{lt}2.7 GeV/c , the high momentum region where background from b{r_arrow}c processes is suppressed. We discuss the physical interpretation of the signal, including the possibility that it is due to b{r_arrow}sg{sup {asterisk}} transitions. Given that interpretation, we find B(B{r_arrow}{eta}{sup {prime}}X{sub s} )=[6.2{plus_minus}1.6(stat){plus_minus} 1.3(syst){sup +0.0}{sub {minus}1.5} (bkg)]{times}10{sup {minus}4} for 2.0{lt}p{sub {eta}{sup {prime}}}{lt}2.7 GeV/c . {copyright} {ital 1998} {ital The American Physical Society }

  5. M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

  6. Hispaania ei usu ETA rahupakkumisse / Heiki Suurkask

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Suurkask, Heiki, 1972-

    2004-01-01

    Baski terrorirühmitus kutsus uut peaministrit Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapaterot dialoogile, hiljuti valimised võitnud Sotsialistlik Töölispartei teatas vastuseks, et ETA on terroristlik rühmitus ja selle avaldustele tähelepanu ei osutata. Vt. samas: Vaherahule järgnes terrorilaine

  7. Eta-Expansion Does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1996-01-01

    -sum type. For the latter case, it enables “The Trick.” In this article, we extend Gomard and Jones' partial evaluator for the &lgr;-calculus, &lgr;-Mix, with products and disjoint sums; we point out how eta-expansion for (finite) disjoint sums enable The Trick; we generalize our earlier work by identifying...

  8. Eta-Expansion Does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1995-01-01

    -sum type. For the latter case, it enables “The Trick.” In this article, we extend Gomard and Jones' partial evaluator for the &lgr;-calculus, &lgr;-Mix, with products and disjoint sums; we point out how eta-expansion for (finite) disjoint sums enable The Trick; we generalize our earlier work by identifying...

  9. The cusp effect in {eta}'{yields}{eta}{pi}{pi} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubis, Bastian; Schneider, Sebastian P. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    Strong final-state interactions create a pronounced cusp in {eta}'{yields}{eta}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0} decays. We adapt and generalize the non-relativistic effective field theory framework developed for the extraction of {pi}{pi} scattering lengths from K{yields}3{pi} decays to this case. The cusp effect is predicted to have an effect of more than 8% on the decay spectrum below the {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -} threshold. (orig.)

  10. Forecasting Areas Vulnerable to Forest Conversion in the Tam Dao National Park Region, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duong Dang Khoi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Tam Dao National Park (TDNP is a remaining primary forest that supports some of the highest levels of biodiversity in Vietnam. Forest conversion due to illegal logging and agricultural expansion is a major problem that is hampering biodiversity conservation efforts in the TDNP region. Yet, areas vulnerable to forest conversion are unknown. In this paper, we predicted areas vulnerable to forest changes in the TDNP region using multi-temporal remote sensing data and a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN with a Markov chain model (MLPNN-M. The MLPNN-M model predicted increasing pressure in the remaining primary forest within the park as well as on the secondary forest in the surrounding areas. The primary forest is predicted to decrease from 18.03% in 2007 to 15.10% in 2014 and 12.66% in 2021. Our results can be used to prioritize locations for future biodiversity conservation and forest management efforts. The combined use of remote sensing and spatial modeling techniques provides an effective tool for monitoring the remaining forests in the TDNP region.

  11. Search for the Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta ' and Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta decays with the LHCb detector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Affolder, A.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Cartelle, P. Alvarez; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; An, L.; Anderlini, L.; Anderson, J.; Andreotti, M.; Andrews, J. E.; Appleby, R. B.; Gutierrez, O. Aquines; Archilli, F.; d'Argent, P.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Baalouch, M.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Badalov, A.; Baesso, C.; Baldini, W.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Batozskaya, V.; Battista, V.; Bay, A.; Beaucourt, L.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Bel, L. J.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Pellegrino, A.; Tolk, S.

    2015-01-01

    A search is performed for the as yet unobserved baryonic Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta' and Lambda(0)(b) -> Lambda eta decays with 3 fb(-1) of proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment. The B-0 -> K-s(0)eta' decay is used as a normalisation channel. No significant signal is observed

  12. Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

    2009-03-01

    Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

  13. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  14. Preliminary assessment of the electromagnetic environment in the immediate vicinity of the ETA accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabayan, H.S.; Bogdan, E.; Zicker, J.; Wythe, D.; Burke, G.J.

    1980-04-01

    The electromagnetic fields in the immediate vicinity of the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory have been characterized. Various EM sensors that cover the frequency band from the very low frequencies up into the GHz region have been used. The report describes in detail the probes, the test set-up and the data processing techniques

  15. Some Comments on the Decays of eta (550)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltman, M.; Yellin, J.

    1966-07-01

    Various decay modes of the {eta}(500) are discussed. The relations, through SU{sub 3} and the Gell-Mann, Sharp, Wagner model, between the {eta}-decay modes and the modes {eta} {yields} {pi}{pi}{gamma), {pi}{sup 0} {yields} {gamma}{gamma} are investigated taking into account {eta}-{eta}{sup *} mixing. The present experimental values for the neutral branching ratios plus the shape of the {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} Dalitz plot are shown to require a 25% {vert_bar}{Delta}{rvec I}{vert_bar} = 3 contribution to the {eta} {yields} 3{pi} amplitude. The connection between a possible charge asymmetry in {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} and the branching ratio {Gamma}{sub {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup 0}e{sup +}e{sup {minus}}}/{Gamma}{sub {eta}}{sup all} is investigated in the framework of a model proposed earlier by several authors. It is shown that there is no conflict between the existing data and this model. The Dalitz plot distribution of {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup {minus}}{pi}{sup 0} is discussed under various assumptions about the properties of the interaction responsible for the decay. (auth)

  16. Long-term forecasts of regional, customer and use-specific energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, Juerg

    1999-11-01

    In the future the Swiss electricity market will have to contend with changes stemming from market liberalization. The need for instruments to analyze and predict market shares of electricity is greater than ever; tools are also greatly needed to help managers and workers prepare for new beginnings and to reorient customers. The development and application of such an instrument are the object of the present thesis. A computer program produced within the context of this work can, based on an adapted bottom-up model, be used to analyze and predict the energy demand in the supply area of a medium-sized electric utility. Elektra Birseck Muenchenstein was included in the investigation as a representative medium-sized electric utility, and it provided the basis for a supply area. Current energy demand was depicted with a bottom-up approach and different scenarios of future development were calculated using a prognosis horizon of 30 years. For the market segmentation all consumer sectors had to be considered in detail. In addition, 'regionality', 'substitution' and 'customer proximity' factors had to be illustrated in the model, i.e. the regional development in the supply area, the substitution of energy sources -above all natural gas -and the detailed view of large, individual customers. The choice of a bottom-up approach created a demand for a large quantity of data, not all of which were available or could be produced. An additional crucial capability of the computer simulation was the comparison of assumptions and results of the prognoses. The users needed to be able to consider multiple future eventualities if they were to play out different scenarios to the end. Fulfilling these partly divergent criteria in the structural definition of the energy demand model was one of the large challenges of this work. The result of the dissertation is a differentiated prognosis instrument for the supply area of an electric utility. The structure of the suggested solution is

  17. Web-GIS platform for monitoring and forecasting of regional climate and ecological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, E. P.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.; Lykosov, V. N.; Okladnikov, I.; Titov, A. G.; Shulgina, T. M.

    2012-12-01

    Growing volume of environmental data from sensors and model outputs makes development of based on modern information-telecommunication technologies software infrastructure for information support of integrated scientific researches in the field of Earth sciences urgent and important task (Gordov et al, 2012, van der Wel, 2005). It should be considered that original heterogeneity of datasets obtained from different sources and institutions not only hampers interchange of data and analysis results but also complicates their intercomparison leading to a decrease in reliability of analysis results. However, modern geophysical data processing techniques allow combining of different technological solutions for organizing such information resources. Nowadays it becomes a generally accepted opinion that information-computational infrastructure should rely on a potential of combined usage of web- and GIS-technologies for creating applied information-computational web-systems (Titov et al, 2009, Gordov et al. 2010, Gordov, Okladnikov and Titov, 2011). Using these approaches for development of internet-accessible thematic information-computational systems, and arranging of data and knowledge interchange between them is a very promising way of creation of distributed information-computation environment for supporting of multidiscipline regional and global research in the field of Earth sciences including analysis of climate changes and their impact on spatial-temporal vegetation distribution and state. Experimental software and hardware platform providing operation of a web-oriented production and research center for regional climate change investigations which combines modern web 2.0 approach, GIS-functionality and capabilities of running climate and meteorological models, large geophysical datasets processing, visualization, joint software development by distributed research groups, scientific analysis and organization of students and post-graduate students education is

  18. Forecasting the Effects of Fertility Control on Overabundant Ungulates: White-Tailed Deer in the National Capital Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann M Raiho

    Full Text Available Overabundant populations of ungulates have caused environmental degradation and loss of biological diversity in ecosystems throughout the world. Culling or regulated harvest is often used to control overabundant species. These methods are difficult to implement in national parks, other types of conservation reserves, or in residential areas where public hunting may be forbidden by policy. As a result, fertility control has been recommended as a non-lethal alternative for regulating ungulate populations. We evaluate this alternative using white-tailed deer in national parks in the vicinity of Washington, D.C., USA as a model system. Managers seek to reduce densities of white-tailed deer from the current average (50 deer per km2 to decrease harm to native plant communities caused by deer. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model using 13 years of population estimates from 8 national parks in the National Capital Region Network. We offer a novel way to evaluate management actions relative to goals using short term forecasts. Our approach confirms past analyses that fertility control is incapable of rapidly reducing deer abundance. Fertility control can be combined with culling to maintain a population below carrying capacity with a high probability of success. This gives managers confronted with problematic overabundance a framework for implementing management actions with a realistic assessment of uncertainty.

  19. Forecasting the effects of fertility control on overabundant ungulates: White-tailed deer in the National Capital Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiho, Ann M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Bates, Scott; Hobbs, N. Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Overabundant populations of ungulates have caused environmental degradation and loss of biological diversity in ecosystems throughout the world. Culling or regulated harvest is often used to control overabundant species. These methods are difficult to implement in national parks, other types of conservation reserves, or in residential areas where public hunting may be forbidden by policy. As a result, fertility control has been recommended as a non-lethal alternative for regulating ungulate populations. We evaluate this alternative using white-tailed deer in national parks in the vicinity of Washington, D.C., USA as a model system. Managers seek to reduce densities of white-tailed deer from the current average (50 deer per km2) to decrease harm to native plant communities caused by deer. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model using 13 years of population estimates from 8 national parks in the National Capital Region Network. We offer a novel way to evaluate management actions relative to goals using short term forecasts. Our approach confirms past analyses that fertility control is incapable of rapidly reducing deer abundance. Fertility control can be combined with culling to maintain a population below carrying capacity with a high probability of success. This gives managers confronted with problematic overabundance a framework for implementing management actions with a realistic assessment of uncertainty.

  20. Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Iovine, Giulio; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Vennari, Carmela; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2015-04-01

    Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clear relevance of validation, only a few studies have addressed the problem, and have proposed and tested robust validation procedures. We propose a validation procedure that allows for the definition of optimal thresholds for early warning purposes. The validation is based on contingency table, skill scores, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To establish the optimal threshold, which maximizes the correct landslide predictions and minimizes the incorrect predictions, we propose an index that results from the linear combination of three weighted skill scores. Selection of the optimal threshold depends on the scope and the operational characteristics of the early warning system. The choice is made by selecting appropriately the weights, and by searching for the optimal (maximum) value of the index. We discuss weakness in the validation procedure caused by the inherent lack of information (epistemic uncertainty) on landslide occurrence typical of large study areas. When working at the regional scale, landslides may have occurred and may have not been reported. This results in biases and variations in the contingencies and the skill scores. We introduce two parameters to represent the unknown proportion of rainfall events (above and below the threshold) for which landslides occurred and went unreported. We show that even a very small underestimation in the number of landslides can result in a significant decrease in the performance of a threshold measured by the skill scores. We show that the variations in the skill scores are different for different uncertainty of events above or below the threshold. This

  1. Reservoir inflow forecasting with a modified coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system: a case study for a semi-arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allawi, Mohammed Falah; Jaafar, Othman; Mohamad Hamzah, Firdaus; Mohd, Nuruol Syuhadaa; Deo, Ravinesh C.; El-Shafie, Ahmed

    2017-10-01

    Existing forecast models applied for reservoir inflow forecasting encounter several drawbacks, due to the difficulty of the underlying mathematical procedures being to cope with and to mimic the naturalization and stochasticity of the inflow data patterns. In this study, appropriate adjustments to the conventional coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) method are proposed to improve the mathematical procedure, thus enabling a better detection of the high nonlinearity patterns found in the reservoir inflow training data. This modification includes the updating of the back propagation algorithm, leading to a consequent update of the membership rules and the induction of the centre-weighted set rather than the global weighted set used in feature extraction. The modification also aids in constructing an integrated model that is able to not only detect the nonlinearity in the training data but also the wide range of features within the training data records used to simulate the forecasting model. To demonstrate the model's efficacy, the proposed CANFIS method has been applied to forecast monthly inflow data at Aswan High Dam (AHD), located in southern Egypt. Comparative analyses of the forecasting skill of the modified CANFIS and the conventional ANFIS model are carried out with statistical score indicators to assess the reliability of the developed method. The statistical metrics support the better performance of the developed CANFIS model, which significantly outperforms the ANFIS model to attain a low relative error value (23%), mean absolute error (1.4 BCM month-1), root mean square error (1.14 BCM month-1), and a relative large coefficient of determination (0.94). The present study ascertains the better utility of the modified CANFIS model in respect to the traditional ANFIS model applied in reservoir inflow forecasting for a semi-arid region.

  2. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  3. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  4. Chiral symmetry and eta, eta' → 3π decays. Grand unified theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roiesnel, C.

    1982-11-01

    Two different topics related to symmetry breaking are discussed. First the eta, eta' → 3π decays are presented. The amplitudes eta, eta' → 3π are calculated with the square root threshold singularity induced by the strong pion-pion final state interaction properly taken into account. It is shown that the eta' → 3π decay rate depends sensitively upon an improved treatment of the pseudoscalar nonet mass matrix. Then symmetry-breaking effects in grand unified theories are discussed. The threshold effects in a spontaneously broken gauge theory are studied. In particular a computation of the symmetry-breaking effects in the SU(5) grand unified theory including those of the breaking of SU(2)xU(1) is presented. As an application a precise value of the superheavy gauge boson mass Mx is given. It is possible in SU(5) to define a natural effective weak angle theta w(μ) for any scale μ, below as well as above Mw, and the predicted curve for sin 2 theta w(μ) is given [fr

  5. Search for tau decays to the eta meson

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skwarnicki, T.

    1987-12-01

    Using a sample of 530,000 tau leptons collected by the Crystal Ball experiment at the e + e - storage ring DORIS II, we have searched for tau decays to the eta meson. No eta signal is found in the inclusive analysis, tau → eta X, of 1-prong decays, leading to the upper limits, BR(tau - → nu π - eta) - → π - π 0 eta) - → nu π - π 0 π 0 eta) - → nu π - eta eta) - → nu π - eta and tau - → nu π - π 0 eta, are also not found in the exclusive analyses, while BR(tau - → nu π - π 0 ) = (22.7 +- 0.9 +- 3.0)% and BR(tau - → nu π - π 0 π 0 ) = (7.0 +- 0.7 +- 1.4)% are measured in accord with the expectations. The hadronic final state, π - π 0 π 0 , is reconstructed in tau decays for the first time. The results are preliminary. 21 refs., 10 figs

  6. THE ETA-MESON PHOTOPRODUCTION ON PROTON

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Donoval, Jan; Bydžovský, Petr

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 26, 3-4 (2011), s. 645-646 ISSN 0217-751X. [11th International Workshop on Meson Production , Properties and Interaction. Krakow, 10.06.2010-15.06.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA202/08/0984 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : Eta-meson photoproduction * form factors * nucleon resonances Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 1.053, year: 2011

  7. Eta-Expansion Does The Trick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Malmkjær, Karoline; Palsberg, Jens

    1995-01-01

    Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta-expansion, and a p......Partial-evaluation folklore has it that massaging one's source programs can make them specialize better. In Jones, Gomard, and Sestoft's recent textbook, a whole chapter is dedicated to listing such “binding-time improvements”: nonstandard use of continuation-passing style, eta...... across dynamic case expressions. This requirement precisely accounts for the nonstandard use of continuation-passing style encountered in partial evaluation. Eta-expansion thus acts as a uniform binding-time coercion between values and contexts, be they of function type, product type, or disjoint......-expansion, and a popular transformation called “The Trick.” We provide a unified view of these binding-time improvements, from a typing perspective. Just as a proper treatment of product values in partial evaluation requires partially static values, a proper treatment of disjoint sums requires moving static contexts...

  8. On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Revilla-Romero

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response decisions. Global-scale flood forecasting and satellite-based flood detection systems are currently operating, however their reliability for decision-making applications needs to be assessed. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of several operational global flood forecasting and flood detection systems, using 10 major flood events recorded over 2012–2014. Specifically, we evaluated the spatial extent and temporal characteristics of flood detections from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS. Furthermore, we compared the GFDS flood maps with those from NASA’s two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors. Results reveal that: (1 general agreement was found between the GFDS and MODIS flood detection systems, (2 large differences exist in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GFDS detections and GloFAS forecasts, and (3 the quantitative validation of global flood disasters in data-sparse regions is highly challenging. Overall, satellite remote sensing provides useful near real-time flood information that can be useful for risk management. We highlight the known limitations of global flood detection and forecasting systems, and propose ways forward to improve the reliability of large-scale flood monitoring tools.

  9. Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

  10. 1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

  11. A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; Falconer, D. A.; Adams, J. H., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

  12. Study of $\\eta$ and $\\eta'$ Production in $\\overline{n}p$ Annihilations

    CERN Document Server

    Filippi, A; Botta, E; Bressani, Tullio; Calvo, D; Costa, S; D'Isep, F; Feliciello, A; Iazzi, F; Marcello, S; Minetti, B; Mirfakhraee, N; Balestra, F; Bussa, M P; Busso, L; Cerello, P G; Denisov, O Yu; Garfagnini, R; Grasso, A; Maggiora, A; Panzarasa, A; Panzieri, D; Tosello, F; Bertin, A; Bruschi, M; Capponi, M; De Castro, S; Donà, R; Galli, D; Giacobbe, B; Marconi, U; Massa, I; Piccinini, M; Poli, M; Semprini-Cesari, N; Spighi, R; Vagnoni, V M; Vecchi, S; Villa, M; Vitale, A; Zoccoli, A; Bianconi, A; Bonomi, G; Lodi-Rizzini, E; Venturelli, L; Zenoni, A; Cicalò, C; Masoni, A; Mauro, S; Puddu, G; Serci, S; Usai, G L; Gorchakov, O E; Prakhov, S N; Rozhdestvensky, A M; Sapozhnikov, M G; Tretyak, V I; Gianotti, P; Guaraldo, C; Lanaro, A; Lucherini, V; Petrascu, C; Ableev, V G; Vannucci, Luigi; Vedovato, G; Bendiscioli, G; Filippini, V; Fontana, A; Montagna, P; Rotondi, A; Salvini, P; Tessaro, S

    1999-01-01

    The annihilation fractions and cross sections for the np annihilation reaction in flight (~50-400 MeV/c) into eta pi /sup +/ and eta ' pi /sup +/ final states have been measured. The first ones follow the trend expected for P wave annihilations. From the ratios of the yields an evaluation of the pseudoscalar mixing angle in the standard form is possible. The value found shows that for pseudoscalar meson production from P wave the quark line rule is not grossly violated. (22 refs).

  13. Further study of eta'→μ+μ-γ decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dzhelyadin, R.I.; Golovkin, S.V.; Kakauridze, D.V.

    1980-01-01

    The study of rare electromagnetic decay eta'→μ + μ - γ has been continued. The μ + μ - γ effective mass spectrum is presented. The branching ratio BR(eta'→μ + μ - γ)=(8.9+-2.4)x10 -5 , has been measured. The eta' meson electromagnetic form-factor has been defined. The experimental results are in agreement with the vector dominance model

  14. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  15. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lü

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods: from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND, with lag periods between one and twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River.

  16. Forecasting wheat and barley crop production in arid and semi-arid regions using remotely sensed primary productivity and crop phenology: A case study in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qader, Sarchil Hama; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

    2018-02-01

    Crop production and yield estimation using remotely sensed data have been studied widely, but such information is generally scarce in arid and semi-arid regions. In these regions, inter-annual variation in climatic factors (such as rainfall) combined with anthropogenic factors (such as civil war) pose major risks to food security. Thus, an operational crop production estimation and forecasting system is required to help decision-makers to make early estimates of potential food availability. Data from NASA's MODIS with official crop statistics were combined to develop an empirical regression-based model to forecast winter wheat and barley production in Iraq. The study explores remotely sensed indices representing crop productivity over the crop growing season to find the optimal correlation with crop production. The potential of three different remotely sensed indices, and information related to the phenology of crops, for forecasting crop production at the governorate level was tested and their results were validated using the leave-one-year-out approach. Despite testing several methodological approaches, and extensive spatio-temporal analysis, this paper depicts the difficulty in estimating crop yield on an annual base using current satellite low-resolution data. However, more precise estimates of crop production were possible. The result of the current research implies that the date of the maximum vegetation index (VI) offered the most accurate forecast of crop production with an average R 2 =0.70 compared to the date of MODIS EVI (Avg R 2 =0.68) and a NPP (Avg R 2 =0.66). When winter wheat and barley production were forecasted using NDVI, EVI and NPP and compared to official statistics, the relative error ranged from -20 to 20%, -45 to 28% and -48 to 22%, respectively. The research indicated that remotely sensed indices could characterize and forecast crop production more accurately than simple cropping area, which was treated as a null model against which to

  17. New meson-nucleus dynamics from studies of (π,eta) and (π,2π) reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.C.

    1985-01-01

    The production of eta particles by pion collisions with nucleons, the reaction with the lowest genuine two-body reaction threshold, is discussed. For simple kinematic reasons, the threshold for nuclear pionic eta production reactions is much lower than 661 MeV. Using an off-shell model for the eta production amplitudes, theoretical cross sections are given for the reaction 3 He(π - ,eta) 3 H(g.s.) at 620 and 720 MeV/c. Pion-induced single pion production is then treated. Because the basic cross sections for this reaction becomes comparable to the pion-nucleon elastic scattering cross section at pion kinetic energies of about 600 MeV and exceeds the elastic scattering cross section at 1 GeV, it is believed that the (π,2π) reaction in complex nuclei represents a powerful tool to study nuclei at pion energies above the resonance region. Theoretical cross section ratios are given for 40 Ca at three different pion energies accessible at LAMPF. Also, the corresponding cross-section ratios are presented on a free proton. 14 refs., 7 figs

  18. Symmetry Breaking and transition form factors from {eta} and {omega} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, Ankhi, E-mail: ankhi@iiti.ac.in [IIT Indore (India); Collaboration: WASA-at-COSY Collaboration

    2013-03-15

    The WASA-at-COSY collaboration uses meson production and the decays for the realization of the physics goals. Different rare decay channels of the mesons have to be analyzed in order to investigate symmetry breaking patterns. The combination of high intensity COSY (COoler SYnchrotron) beams and the WASA 4{pi} detector setup allows us to study the rare decay channels of light mesons. We are analyzing different symmetry breaking decay channels of {eta} mesons. One rare decay channel {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup + }{pi}{sup -} e{sup + }e{sup -} is being used to test CP violation. The asymmetry in the angle between the electron and pion planes can give insight about the degree of CP violation. The study of another rare decay channel {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup 0}e{sup + }e{sup -} is a test of C-parity violation. Our analysis of transition form factors of different mesons via conversion decays ({eta}{yields}{gamma}{gamma}{sup *}{yields}e{sup + }e{sup -} {gamma}, {omega}{yields}{pi}{sup 0}e{sup + }e{sup -}) provides insight about hadron structure. The transition form-factor of the {omega} meson provides information about the form factor in the time-like region where the two vector particles (the {omega} and the intermediate virtual photon) have an invariant mass squared will be discussed.

  19. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  20. Observation of the $B^0_s\\to\\eta'\\eta'$ decay

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2075808; Adeva, Bernardo; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Bel, Lennaert; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casanova Mohr, Raimon; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cavallero, Giovanni; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Dey, Biplab; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferrari, Fabio; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gastaldi, Ugo; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Geraci, Angelo; Gerick, David; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, Vladimir; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Kenzie, Matthew; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lowdon, Peter; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Manning, Peter Michael; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Maurin, Brice; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Mitzel, Dominik Stefan; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Osorio Rodrigues, Bruno; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Aranzazu; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Pescatore, Luca; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Quagliani, Renato; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skillicorn, Ian; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Sterpka, Christopher Francis; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Trabelsi, Karim; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viana Barbosa, Joao Vitor; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang

    2015-01-01

    The first observation of the $B^0_s\\to\\eta'\\eta'$ decay is reported. The study is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions corresponding to $3.0$ ${\\rm fb^{-1}}$ of integrated luminosity collected with the LHCb detector. The significance of the signal is $6.4$ standard deviations. The branching fraction is measured to be $[3.31 \\pm 0.64\\,{\\rm (stat)} \\pm 0.28\\,{\\rm (syst)} \\pm 0.12\\,{\\rm (norm)}]\\times10^{-5}$, where the third uncertainty comes from the $B^{\\pm}\\to\\eta' K^{\\pm}$ branching fraction that is used as a normalisation. In addition, the charge asymmetries of $B^{\\pm}\\to\\eta' K^{\\pm}$ and $B^{\\pm}\\to\\phi K^{\\pm}$, which are control channels, are measured to be $(-0.2 \\pm1.3)\\%$ and $(+1.7\\pm1.3)\\%$, respectively. All results are consistent with theoretical expectations.

  1. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  2. 76 FR 12760 - Comment Request for Information Collection for Report ETA 902, Disaster Unemployment Assistance...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-08

    ... Collection for Report ETA 902, Disaster Unemployment Assistance Activities (OMB Control No. 1205- 0051... soliciting comments concerning the proposed extension of the ETA 902, Disaster Unemployment [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: I. Background The ETA 902 Report, Disaster Unemployment...

  3. Eta Products and Theta Series Identities

    CERN Document Server

    Kohler, Gunter

    2011-01-01

    This monograph deals with products of Dedekind's eta function, with Hecke theta series on quadratic number fields, and with "Eisenstein series." The author brings to the public the large number of identities that have been discovered over the past 20 years, the majority of which have not been published elsewhere. This book will be of interest to graduate students and scholars in the field of number theory and, in particular, modular forms. It is not an introductory text in this field. Nevertheless, some theoretical background material is presented that is important for understanding

  4. Rare decays of neutral π and eta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poutissou, J.M.

    1983-09-01

    The decays of the pseudoscalar neutral mesons π degree and eta degree have provided a test of fundamental principles. The main branch, π degree → 2γ, was investigated in the late 60's in the context of current algebra and the decay rate calculated from the singular triangle diagram is in excellent agreement with experiment. Rare leptonic decays of the neutral pseudoscalar mesons are of interest because of the information they reveal about neutral currents or other exotic interactions between leptons and quarks. The author discusses recent information on the π degree → e + e - decay

  5. Indications for the decays D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta π/sup +-/ and D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta' π/sup +-/

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormser, G.

    1987-11-01

    A search for D/sub s//sup +-/ decays into eta π/sup +-/ and eta' π/sup +-/ has been performed by the MarkII collaboration at the PEP e + e - storage ring. Eta particles are reconstructed by their γγ decay mode. The eta fragmentation has been measured and found to be in good agreement with the Lund model prediction. Eta' production has been measured for the first time in e + e - high energy annihilation. Good indications are found for both decay modes D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta π/sup +-/ and D/sub s//sup +-/ → eta' π/sup +-/

  6. ETA chemistry experience and assessment on CPP in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, K.K.; Lee, J.B.; Yoon, S.W.

    2002-01-01

    To reduce FAC of carbon steel in secondary system, water treatment chemistry was converted to ETA at Kori unit 1. Full scale tests to choose the optimum concentration of ETA were conducted and the evaluation after one cycle operation with ETA was also performed. Optimum concentration of ETA in final feed water was determined as 1.8 ppm. At this condition, iron concentration was reduced by 69.8% in final feed water and 69.7% in heater drain compared to ammonia-AVT. The amount of sludge removed from each steam generator was 11.3 kg, which was 88.2% lower than that of ammonia-AVT. With successful results of Kori unit 1, Applications of ETA were extended to other PWRs. Iron transport was found to be reduced significantly. Also, the output of electric power increased by 9 MWe at Young-Kwang unit 1. However, fouling of ion exchange resin in CPP was appeared. ETA appears to have a solvent function in the initial stage of ETA chemistry. Resin was restored when the fouling was removed with hot water and sodium bicarbonates. In particular, the MR type anion resin may be effective in resistance to fouling when ETA-chemistry is used. (authors)

  7. {pi}{eta} pair hard electroproduction and exotic hybrid mesons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anikin, I.V. [LPT, Universite Paris-Sud, 91405-Orsay, France, UMR 8627 du CNRS (France); BLTP, JINR, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); CPHT, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France, UMR 7644 du CNRS (France); Pire, B. [CPHT, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France, UMR 7644 du CNRS (France); Szymanowski, L. [Soltan Institute for Nuclear Studies, Warsaw (Poland) and Univ. de Liege, B-4000 Liege (Belgium); Teryaev, O.V. [BLTP, JINR, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); Wallon, S. [LPT, Universite Paris-Sud, 91405-Orsay, France, UMR 8627 du CNRS (France)

    2005-06-13

    We show that hard electroproduction is a promising way to study exotic hybrid mesons, in particular through the hybrid decay channel H->{pi}{eta}. We discuss the {pi}{eta} generalized distribution amplitude, calculate the production amplitude and propose a forward-backward asymmetry as a signal for the hybrid meson production.

  8. Software Users Manual (SUM): Extended Testability Analysis (ETA) Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maul, William A.; Fulton, Christopher E.

    2011-01-01

    This software user manual describes the implementation and use the Extended Testability Analysis (ETA) Tool. The ETA Tool is a software program that augments the analysis and reporting capabilities of a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) testability analysis software package called the Testability Engineering And Maintenance System (TEAMS) Designer. An initial diagnostic assessment is performed by the TEAMS Designer software using a qualitative, directed-graph model of the system being analyzed. The ETA Tool utilizes system design information captured within the diagnostic model and testability analysis output from the TEAMS Designer software to create a series of six reports for various system engineering needs. The ETA Tool allows the user to perform additional studies on the testability analysis results by determining the detection sensitivity to the loss of certain sensors or tests. The ETA Tool was developed to support design and development of the NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle. The diagnostic analysis provided by the ETA Tool was proven to be valuable system engineering output that provided consistency in the verification of system engineering requirements. This software user manual provides a description of each output report generated by the ETA Tool. The manual also describes the example diagnostic model and supporting documentation - also provided with the ETA Tool software release package - that were used to generate the reports presented in the manual

  9. Ikerketaz gizarte langintzan: Sorburuak, kopuruak eta aburuak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kontxesi Berrio-Otxoa Otxoa de Angiozar

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false ES X-NONE X-NONE Artikulu honek jasotzen ditu gizarte langintzaren arloan ikerlanaren beharraz arduratu diren egile esanguratsuek gizarte langintzako ikerketari emandako definizioak. Bidenabar, gizarte langintzaren hastapenetan beste jakintza arloekin uztartuta egindako ikerketek izandako garrantzia ere azaltzen zaigu. Ikerketari buruzko aipuekin batera, ohartarazten zaigu ikerketa modu ezberdinetan ulertu izan dela gizarte langintzaren eremuan; eta horren harira, gizarte langileen jardunean ikerketak duen presentzia aztertu ondoren, egun ere, era ezberdinetan ulertu eta kategorizatzearen inguruko hausnarketa egiten du egileak. This article covers the different definitions of research in social work built up by the more significant authors who have worried about the need for doing research work on social work. At the same time, it show us the importance of combined research with other areas of knowledge that took place at the begginings of Social Work discipline. Moreover, the article worns us about the diferent ways that research has been understood in relation with social work and it points out the presence and importance of research in social worker´s daily work. Finally, the author offers us her reflexions on the different ways that research is understood and categorized nowadays.

  10. A comparison of boundary-layer heights inferred from wind-profiler backscatter profiles with diagnostic calculations using regional model forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baltink, H.K.; Holtslag, A.A.M. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., KNMI, De Bilt (Netherlands)

    1997-10-01

    From October 1994 through January 1997 the Tropospheric Energy Budget Experiment (TEBEX) was executed by KNMI. The main objectives are to study boundary layer processes and cloud variability on the sub-grid scale of present Global Climate Models and to improve the related sub-grid parametrizations. A suite of instruments was deployed to measure a large number of variables. Measurements to characterize ABL processes were focussed around the 200 m high meteorological observation tower of the KNMI in Cabauw. In the framework of TEBEX a 1290 MHz wind-profiler/RASS was installed in July 1994 at 300 m from tower. Data collected during TEBEX are used to assess the performance of a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). This climate model runs also in a operational forecast mode once a day. The diagnostic ABL-height (h{sub model}) is calculated from the RACMO forecast output. A modified Richardson`s number method extended with an excess parcel temperature is applied for all stability conditions. We present the preliminary results of a comparison of h{sub model} from forecasts with measured h{sub TS} derived from profiler and sodar data for July 1995. (au)

  11. Two-Body B Meson Decays to {eta} and {eta}{sup '} : Observation of B {yields} {eta}K{sup *}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richichi, S. J. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Severini, H. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Skubic, P. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Undrus, A. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019 (United States); Chen, S. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Fast, J. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Hinson, J. W. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Lee, J. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Menon, N. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Miller, D. H. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States)] (and others)

    2000-07-17

    In a sample of 19x10{sup 6} produced B mesons, we have observed the decays B{yields}{eta}K{sup *} and improved our previous measurements of B{yields}{eta}{sup '}K . The branching fractions we measure for these decay modes are B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}K{sup *+}) =(26.4{sup +9.6}{sub -8.2}{+-}3.3)x 10{sup -6} , B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}K{sup *0}) =(13.8{sup +5.5}{sub -4.6}{+-}1.6)x 10{sup -6} , B(B{sup +}{yields}{eta}{sup '} K{sup +})=(80{sup +10}{sub -9}{+-} 7)x10{sup -6} , and B(B{sup 0}{yields}{eta}{sup '} K{sup 0})=(89{sup +18}{sub -16}{+-} 9)x10{sup -6} . We have searched with comparable sensitivity for related decays and report upper limits for these branching fractions. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society.

  12. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  13. Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

  14. Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

  15. Nucleotide sequences of immunoglobulin eta genes of chimpanzee and orangutan: DNA molecular clock and hominoid evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakoyama, Y.; Hong, K.J.; Byun, S.M.; Hisajima, H.; Ueda, S.; Yaoita, Y.; Hayashida, H.; Miyata, T.; Honjo, T.

    1987-02-01

    To determine the phylogenetic relationships among hominoids and the dates of their divergence, the complete nucleotide sequences of the constant region of the immunoglobulin eta-chain (C/sub eta1/) genes from chimpanzee and orangutan have been determined. These sequences were compared with the human eta-chain constant-region sequence. A molecular clock (silent molecular clock), measured by the degree of sequence divergence at the synonymous (silent) positions of protein-encoding regions, was introduced for the present study. From the comparison of nucleotide sequences of ..cap alpha../sub 1/-antitrypsin and ..beta..- and delta-globulin genes between humans and Old World monkeys, the silent molecular clock was calibrated: the mean evolutionary rate of silent substitution was determined to be 1.56 x 10/sup -9/ substitutions per site per year. Using the silent molecular clock, the mean divergence dates of chimpanzee and orangutan from the human lineage were estimated as 6.4 +/- 2.6 million years and 17.3 +/- 4.5 million years, respectively. It was also shown that the evolutionary rate of primate genes is considerably slower than those of other mammalian genes.

  16. Invariant-mass distributions for the pp{yields}pp{eta} reaction at Q=10 MeV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskal, P.; Czerwinski, E.; Klaja, J.; Klaja, P.; Krzemien, W. [Jagellonian University, Institute of Physics, Cracow (Poland); Research Center Juelich, Nuclear Physics Institute, Juelich (Germany); Czyzykiewicz, R. [Jagellonian University, Institute of Physics, Cracow (Poland); University of Silesia, Institute of Physics, Katowice (Poland); Gil, D.; Jarczyk, L.; Kamys, B.; Silarski, M.; Smyrski, J.; Zdebik, J.; Zielinski, M.J. [Jagellonian University, Institute of Physics, Cracow (Poland); Grzonka, D.; Oelert, W.; Ritman, J.; Sefzick, T.; Wuestner, P. [Research Center Juelich, Nuclear Physics Institute, Juelich (Germany); Khoukaz, A.; Taeschner, A.; Zipper, W. [Westfaelische Wilhelms-Universitaet, IKP, Muenster (Germany); Siemaszko, M. [University of Silesia, Institute of Physics, Katowice (Poland); Wolke, M. [SE-751 05 Uppsala University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2010-02-15

    Proton-proton and proton-{eta} invariant-mass distributions and the total cross-section for the pp{yields}pp{eta} reaction have been determined near the threshold at an excess energy of Q=10 MeV. The experiment has been conducted using the COSY-11 detector setup and the cooler synchrotron COSY. The determined invariant-mass spectra reveal significant enhancements in the region of low proton-proton relative momenta, similarly as observed previously at higher excess energies of Q=15.5 MeV and Q=40 MeV. (orig.)

  17. LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES

    Science.gov (United States)

    ; Organization Search Search Landlubber's forecast: "City, St" or zip code (Pan/Zoom for Marine) Search SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES (Click on the NWS Forecast Center/Office of interest to link to that Marine Forecasts in text form ) Coastal NWS Forecast Offices have regionally focused marine webpages

  18. Structure and mechanism of human DNA polymerase [eta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biertümpfel, Christian; Zhao, Ye; Kondo, Yuji; Ramón-Maiques, Santiago; Gregory, Mark; Lee, Jae Young; Masutani, Chikahide; Lehmann, Alan R.; Hanaoka, Fumio; Yang, Wei (Sussex); (NIH); (Gakushuin); (Osaka)

    2010-11-03

    The variant form of the human syndrome xeroderma pigmentosum (XPV) is caused by a deficiency in DNA polymerase {eta} (Pol{eta}), a DNA polymerase that enables replication through ultraviolet-induced pyrimidine dimers. Here we report high-resolution crystal structures of human Pol{eta} at four consecutive steps during DNA synthesis through cis-syn cyclobutane thymine dimers. Pol{eta} acts like a 'molecular splint' to stabilize damaged DNA in a normal B-form conformation. An enlarged active site accommodates the thymine dimer with excellent stereochemistry for two-metal ion catalysis. Two residues conserved among Pol{eta} orthologues form specific hydrogen bonds with the lesion and the incoming nucleotide to assist translesion synthesis. On the basis of the structures, eight Pol{eta} missense mutations causing XPV can be rationalized as undermining the molecular splint or perturbing the active-site alignment. The structures also provide an insight into the role of Pol{eta} in replicating through D loop and DNA fragile sites.

  19. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  20. Electromagnetic corrections in {eta}{yields}3{pi} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ditsche, Christoph; Kubis, Bastian [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany); Meissner, Ulf G. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institut fuer Kernphysik (Theorie), Institute for Advanced Simulations, and Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Juelich (Germany)

    2009-03-15

    We re-evaluate the electromagnetic corrections to {eta}{yields}3{pi} decays at next-to-leading order in the chiral expansion, arguing that effects of order e{sup 2}(m{sub u}-m{sub d}) disregarded so far are not negligible compared to other contributions of order e {sup 2} times a light-quark mass. Despite the appearance of the Coulomb pole in {eta}{yields}{pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} and cusps in {eta}{yields}3{pi}{sup 0}, the overall corrections remain small. (orig.)

  1. Implementation and testing of a simple data assimilation algorithm in the regional air pollution forecast model, DEOM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frydendall

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available A simple data assimilation algorithm based on statistical interpolation has been developed and coupled to a long-range chemistry transport model, the Danish Eulerian Operational Model (DEOM, applied for air pollution forecasting at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI, Denmark. In this paper, the algorithm and the results from experiments designed to find the optimal setup of the algorithm are described. The algorithm has been developed and optimized via eight different experiments where the results from different model setups have been tested against measurements from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme network covering a half-year period, April–September 1999. The best performing setup of the data assimilation algorithm for surface ozone concentrations has been found, including the combination of determining the covariances using the Hollingsworth method, varying the correlation length according to the number of adjacent observation stations and applying the assimilation routine at three successive hours during the morning. Improvements in the correlation coefficient in the range of 0.1 to 0.21 between the results from the reference and the optimal configuration of the data assimilation algorithm, were found. The data assimilation algorithm will in the future be used in the operational THOR integrated air pollution forecast system, which includes the DEOM.

  2. Minute Temperature Fluctuations Detected in Eta Bootis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-11-01

    A group of astronomers from the Aarhus University (Denmark) and the European Southern Observatory (2) have for the first time succeeded in detecting solar-type oscillations in another star. They observed the temperature of the bright northern star Eta Bootis during six nights with the 2.5-metre Nordic Optical Telescope at the Roque de los Muchachos observatory on the island of La Palma (Canary Islands) and were able to show that it varies periodically by a few hundredths of a degree. These changes are caused by pressure waves in the star and are directly dependent on its inner structure. A detailed analysis by the astronomers has shown that the observed effects are in good agreement with current stellar models. This is a most important, independent test of stellar theory. The Sun is an Oscillating Star About twenty years ago, it was discovered that the nearest star, our Sun, oscillates like the ringing of a bell with a period of about 5 minutes. The same phenomenon is known in the Earth, which begins to vibrate after earthquakes; in this way seismologists have been able to discern a layered structure in the Earth's interior. The recent impacts of a comet on Jupiter most likely had a similar effect on that planet. The observed solar oscillations concern the entire gaseous body of the Sun, but we can of course only observe them on its surface. It has been found that each mode moves the surface up and down by less than 25 metres; the combined motion is very complicated, because there are many different, simultaneous modes, each of which has a slightly different period. The exact values of these periods are sensitive to the speed of sound in the Sun's interior, which in turn depends on the density of the material there. Thus, by measuring the periods of solar oscillations, we may probe the internal structure of the Sun, that is otherwise inaccessible to observations. Why does the Sun oscillate and what is the cause of these oscillations ? We do not know yet, but it is

  3. Observation of eta-c and other structures in the radiative decay psi to eta pi-plus pi-minus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.J.

    1984-01-01

    The Mark III detector at SPEAR was used to observe the exclusive radiative decay psi → γetaπ + π - . The eta/sub c/ was seen as an intermediate state in this decay, psi → γeta/sub c/, eta/sub c/ → etaπ + π - . The product branching ratio B(psi → γeta/sub c/) B(eta/sub c/ → etaπ + π - ) was measured to be 4.2 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 0.5 (sys) x 10 -4 . Other resonant structure was observed in the etaπ + π - spectrum in the range 1 + π - / 2 , which appears to decay via X → delta -+ π +- , delta -+ → etaπ +- . A spin-parity analysis was performed to determine the quantum numbers of the resonances responsible for this structure. However, the result was seen to be model dependent, so that it was not possible to conclusively resolve the underlying structure in the spectrum. No evidence was seen for the decay iota → etaπ + π - . An upper limit was set for the ratio of branching ratios for iota → etaππ relative to iota → KKπ, R = (B(psi → γiota) B(iota → etaππ))/(B(psi → γiota) B(iota → KKπ)) < 0.2 (90% C.L.)

  4. Observation of eta-c and other structures in the radiative decay psi to gamma eta pi-plus pi-minus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.J.

    1984-01-01

    The Mark III detector at SPEAR was used to observe the exclusive radiative decay psi → γ eta π + π - . The eta c was seen as an intermediate state in this decay, psi → γ eta c, eta c → eta π + π - . The product branching ratio B(psi → γ eta c) B(eta c → eta π + π - ) was measured to be 4.2 +- 0.5 (stat) +- 0.5 (sys) x 10 -4 . Other resonant structure was observed in the eta π + π - spectrum in the range 1 + π-/ 2 , which appears to decay via X → delta +- π -+ , delta +- → eta π +- . A spin-parity analysis was performed to determine the quantum numbers of the resonances responsible for this structure. However, the result was seen to be model dependent, so that it was not possible to conclusively resolve the underlying structure in the spectrum. No evidence was seen for the decay iota → eta π + π - . An upper limit was set for the ratio of branching ratios for iota → eta ππ relative to iota → KKπ, R = B(psi → γiota)B(iota → eta ππ)/B(psi → γiota)B(iota → KKπ) < 0.2 (90% C.L.). 54 references, 59 figures

  5. Implementation and testing of a simple data assimilation algorithm in the regional air pollution forecast model, DEOM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydendall, Jan; Brandt, J.; Christensen, J. H.

    2009-01-01

    A simple data assimilation algorithm based on statistical interpolation has been developed and coupled to a long-range chemistry transport model, the Danish Eulerian Operational Model (DEOM), applied for air pollution forecasting at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Denmark....... In this paper, the algorithm and the results from experiments designed to find the optimal setup of the algorithm are described. The algorithm has been developed and optimized via eight different experiments where the results from different model setups have been tested against measurements from the EMEP...... (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) network covering a half-year period, April-September 1999. The best performing setup of the data assimilation algorithm for surface ozone concentrations has been found, including the combination of determining the covariances using the Hollingsworth method...

  6. Expected Increase of Activity of Eta Aquariids Meteor Shower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulikova, N. V.; Chepurova, V. M.

    2018-04-01

    Analysis of the results of modeling disintegration of Comet 1P/Halley after its flare in 1991 has allowed us to predict an increase of the activity of the associated Eta Aquariids meteor shower in April-May 2018.

  7. Magnetic diagnostics for the proto-eta Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, J.L.; Aso, Y.; Ueda, M.; Ferreira, J.G.

    1991-04-01

    This work gives a general view of the magnetic diagnostics rat will be used in the Proto-Eta Tokamak. These diagnostics will be useful tools to measure currents, electric and magnetic fields involved in the plasma magnetic confinement. (author)

  8. A study of tau decays involving eta and omega mesons

    CERN Document Server

    Buskulic, Damir; Décamp, D; Ghez, P; Goy, C; Lees, J P; Lucotte, A; Minard, M N; Nief, J Y; Odier, P; Pietrzyk, B; Casado, M P; Chmeissani, M; Crespo, J M; Delfino, M C; Efthymiopoulos, I; Fernández, E; Fernández-Bosman, M; Carrido, L; Juste, A; Martínez, M; Orteu, S; Padilla, C; Park, I C; Pascual, A; Perlas, J A; Riu, I; Sánchez, F; Teubert, F; Colaleo, A; Creanza, D; De Palma, M; Gelao, G; Girone, M; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, G; Maggi, M; Marinelli, N; Nuzzo, S; Ranieri, A; Raso, G; Ruggieri, F; Selvaggi, G; Silvestris, L; Tempesta, P; Tricomi, A; Zito, G; Huang, X; Lin, J; Ouyang, Q; Wang, T; Xie, Y; Xu, R; Xue, S; Zhang, J; Zhang, L; Zhao, W; Alemany, R; Bazarko, A O; Bonvicini, G; Bright-Thomas, P G; Cattaneo, M; Comas, P; Coyle, P; Drevermann, H; Forty, Roger W; Frank, M; Hagelberg, R; Harvey, J; Janot, P; Jost, B; Kneringer, E; Knobloch, J; Lehraus, Ivan; Lutters, G; Martin, E B; Mato, P; Minten, Adolf G; Miquel, R; Mir, L M; Moneta, L; Oest, T; Pacheco, A; Pusztaszeri, J F; Ranjard, F; Rensing, P E; Rizzo, G; Rolandi, Luigi; Schlatter, W D; Schmelling, M; Schmitt, M; Schneider, O; Tejessy, W; Tomalin, I R; Venturi, A; Wachsmuth, H W; Wagner, A; Ajaltouni, Ziad J; Barrès, A; Boyer, C; Falvard, A; Gay, P; Guicheney, C; Henrard, P; Jousset, J; Michel, B; Monteil, S; Montret, J C; Pallin, D; Perret, P; Podlyski, F; Proriol, J; Rosnet, P; Rossignol, J M; Fearnley, Tom; Hansen, J B; Hansen, J D; Hansen, J R; Hansen, P H; Nilsson, B S; Rensch, B; Wäänänen, A; Kyriakis, A; Markou, C; Simopoulou, Errietta; Siotis, I; Vayaki, Anna; Zachariadou, K; Blondel, A; Bonneaud, G R; Brient, J C; Bourdon, P; Rougé, A; Rumpf, M; Valassi, Andrea; Verderi, M; Videau, H L; Candlin, D J; Parsons, M I; Focardi, E; Parrini, G; Corden, M; Georgiopoulos, C H; Jaffe, D E; Antonelli, A; Bencivenni, G; Bologna, G; Bossi, F; Campana, P; Capon, G; Casper, David William; Chiarella, V; Felici, G; Laurelli, P; Mannocchi, G; Murtas, F; Murtas, G P; Passalacqua, L; Pepé-Altarelli, M; Curtis, L; Dorris, S J; Halley, A W; Knowles, I G; Lynch, J G; O'Shea, V; Raine, C; Reeves, P; Scarr, J M; Smith, K; Teixeira-Dias, P; Thompson, A S; Thomson, F; Thorn, S; Turnbull, R M; Becker, U; Geweniger, C; Graefe, G; Hanke, P; Hansper, G; Hepp, V; Kluge, E E; Putzer, A; Schmidt, M; Sommer, J; Tittel, K; Werner, S; Wunsch, M; Abbaneo, D; Beuselinck, R; Binnie, David M; Cameron, W; Dornan, Peter J; Moutoussi, A; Nash, J; Sedgbeer, J K; Stacey, A M; Williams, M D; Dissertori, G; Girtler, P; Kuhn, D; Rudolph, G; Betteridge, A P; Bowdery, C K; Colrain, P; Crawford, G; Finch, A J; Foster, F; Hughes, G; Sloan, Terence; Williams, M I; Galla, A; Giehl, I; Greene, A M; Hoffmann, C; Jakobs, K; Kleinknecht, K; Quast, G; Renk, B; Rohne, E; Sander, H G; Van Gemmeren, P; Zeitnitz, C; Aubert, Jean-Jacques; Bencheikh, A M; Benchouk, C; Bonissent, A; Bujosa, G; Calvet, D; Carr, J; Diaconu, C A; Etienne, F; Konstantinidis, N P; Payre, P; Rousseau, D; Talby, M; Sadouki, A; Thulasidas, M; Trabelsi, K; Aleppo, M; Ragusa, F; Bauer, C; Berlich, R; Blum, Walter; Büscher, V; Dietl, H; Dydak, Friedrich; Ganis, G; Gotzhein, C; Kroha, H; Lütjens, G; Lutz, Gerhard; Männer, W; Moser, H G; Richter, R H; Rosado-Schlosser, A; Schael, S; Settles, Ronald; Seywerd, H C J; Saint-Denis, R; Stenzel, H; Wiedenmann, W; Wolf, G; Boucrot, J; Callot, O; Choi, Y; Cordier, A; Davier, M; Duflot, L; Grivaz, J F; Heusse, P; Höcker, A; Jacholkowska, A; Jacquet, M; Kim, D W; Le Diberder, F R; Lefrançois, J; Lutz, A M; Nikolic, I A; Park, H J; Schune, M H; Simion, S; Veillet, J J; Videau, I; Zerwas, D; Azzurri, P; Bagliesi, G; Batignani, G; Bettarini, S; Bozzi, C; Calderini, G; Carpinelli, M; Ciocci, M A; Ciulli, V; Dell'Orso, R; Fantechi, R; Ferrante, I; Foà, L; Forti, F; Giassi, A; Giorgi, M A; Gregorio, A; Ligabue, F; Lusiani, A; Marrocchesi, P S; Messineo, A; Palla, Fabrizio; Sanguinetti, G; Sciabà, A; Spagnolo, P; Steinberger, Jack; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, G; Vannini, C; Verdini, P G; Walsh, J; Blair, G A; Bryant, L M; Cerutti, F; Chambers, J T; Gao, Y; Green, M G; Medcalf, T; Perrodo, P; Strong, J A; Von Wimmersperg-Töller, J H; Botterill, David R; Clifft, R W; Edgecock, T R; Haywood, S; Maley, P; Norton, P R; Thompson, J C; Wright, A E; Bloch-Devaux, B; Colas, P; Emery, S; Kozanecki, Witold; Lançon, E; Lemaire, M C; Locci, E; Marx, B; Pérez, P; Rander, J; Renardy, J F; Roussarie, A; Schuller, J P; Schwindling, J; Trabelsi, A; Vallage, B; Black, S N; Dann, J H; Johnson, R P; Kim, H Y; Litke, A M; McNeil, M A; Taylor, G; Booth, C N; Boswell, R; Brew, C A J; Cartwright, S L; Combley, F; Köksal, A; Lehto, M H; Newton, W M; Reeve, J; Thompson, L F; Böhrer, A; Brandt, S; Cowan, G D; Grupen, Claus; Minguet-Rodríguez, J A; Rivera, F; Saraiva, P; Smolik, L; Stephan, F; Apollonio, M; Bosisio, L; Della Marina, R; Giannini, G; Gobbo, B; Musolino, G; Rothberg, J E; Wasserbaech, S R; Armstrong, S R; Elmer, P; Feng, Z; Ferguson, D P S; Gao, Y S; González, S; Grahl, J; Greening, T C; Hayes, O J; Hu, H; McNamara, P A; Nachtman, J M; Orejudos, W; Pan, Y B; Saadi, Y; Scott, I J; Walsh, A M; Wu, X; Yamartino, J M; Zheng, M; Zobernig, G

    1997-01-01

    The 132 pb$^{-1}$ of data collected by ALEPH from 1991 to 1994 have been used to analyze $\\eta$ and $\\omega$ production in $\\tau$ decays. The following branching fractions have been measured: \\begin{eqnarray*} B(\\tau^-\\to\

  9. Measurement of the /eta/ parameter in /mu//sup +/ decay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bossingham, R.R.

    1989-04-01

    This paper discusses the following topics on the muon plus decay; muon decay spectrum; previous determinations of /eta/; experimental apparatus; distortions of the spectrum; and data analysis and results. 31 figs. (LSP)

  10. Euskarazko denbora-egiturak. Azterketa eta etiketatze-esperimentua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begoña Altuna

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Denbora-informazioa erauztea oso erabilgarria da hizkuntzaren prozesamenduan (HP, besteak beste, testuen sinplifikazioan, informazio-erauzketako eta itzulpen automatikoko sistemetan balia baitaiteke. Lan honetan, euskaraz informazio hori baliagarri bihurtzeko egin diren lehen urratsak azaltzen dira: batetik, euskaraz denbora adierazteko erabiltzen diren egiturak zein eratakoak diren aztertu da gramatiketan oinarrituta, eta bestetik, egitura horiek testuetan etiketatzeko lehen erabakiak hartu dira. Halaber, ekonomiari buruzko corpus bat osatuta egin den etiketatze-lanaren esperimentua azaltzen da.

  11. Theories of the eta-meson-nucleus interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.C.

    1994-01-01

    It is sown that the pion-nucleon elastic scattering, eta-nucleon scattering length and the cross sections for pion-induced eta production on a nucleon satisfy a set of consistency relations. These relations are used to examine the ηN scattering lengths given by the various models. The nature of the threshold ηN interaction is discussed and recent advancements in ηN interaction is discussed and recent advancements in η-nucleus reaction theory are reviewed

  12. {eta} meson photoproduction on deuterium; Photoproduction du meson {eta} sur le deuterium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann-Rothe, P.

    1996-05-30

    Measurements of the total and differential cross sections for {eta}-meson photoproduction on a D{sub 2} liquid target from threshold to 1.2 GeV, have been taken using the tagged Bremsstrahlung photon beam produced by the electrons extracted from the ELSA storage ring at Bonn. The reaction was identified by detecting the eta decay products in the neutral meson spectrometer SPES0-2{pi}, while the recoil baryons (proton, neutron or deuteron) were detected by a variety of large angle scintillator detectors. We succeeded to identify completely the final states corresponding to the production of an {eta} meson on a Quasi-Free (QF) proton, a QF neutron and the coherent deuteron. The differential cross sections corresponding to the production of a coherent deuteron n the final state have been measured, from threshold to 800 MeV; they are 6 times smaller the only previous measurement reported by Anderson and Prepost in 1969. This is consistent with an Isoscalar part of the Amplitude much smaller than the Isovector one. The differential cross sections are in good agreement with the theoretical prediction on the impulse approximation mechanism; indicating in particular, fairly small contributions from rescattering terms. A direct measurement of the neutron to proton cross section ratios has been obtained by integrating the counting rates on the corresponding QF peaks and is 0.70 {+-} 0.03, from 700 MeV to 900 MeV, with a small angular dependence. These two results by comparison to the measured free proton data should allow to reconstruct the free neutron cross sections in a rather model-independent way. (authors). 56 refs., 90 figs., 13 tabs.

  13. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  14. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  15. Determination of the {eta} mass from the production threshold for the {gamma}p {yields} p{eta} reaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikolaev, Alexander

    2012-09-06

    This thesis is dedicated to a new precise determination of the {eta} meson mass based on a measurement of the threshold for the {gamma}p {yields} p{eta} reaction. This experiment was performed in the years 2004/2005 using the Crystal Ball/TAPS detector setup and the recently developed tagger focal-plane microscope detector at the MAMI-B facility in the Institut fuer Kernphysik of the Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz. The real photon beam was produced by Bremsstrahlung of the 883 MeV electrons from MAMI-B on a thin diamond radiator. The {eta} mesons were identified via their two main decay modes, {eta} {yields} 2{gamma} and {eta} {yields} 3{pi}{sup 0}, with the Crystal Ball/TAPS setup, which measured energies and emission angles of particles. The identification of the {eta} {yields} 2{gamma} decay was performed using events with two clusters detected as photons, ignoring all other particles, and the standard invariant mass analysis. Cuts were applied on the invariant and missing mass distributions. The identification of the {eta} {yields} 3{pi}{sup 0} {yields} 6{gamma} decay concentrated on events with six clusters detected as photons. Among fifteen possible combinations of six photons to be arranged in three pairs, the combination with the smallest {chi}{sup 2}-value for the three pion masses was assumed to be correct. Cuts were applied on the {chi}{sup 2}-distribution and on the invariant and missing mass distributions. The normalization of the total cross section was obtained from the target thickness, the intensity of the photon flux, the simulated acceptance of the Crystal Ball, and the branching ratios of the {eta} decays. The determination of the {eta} mass required a very precise measurement of the production threshold. This was obtained by fitting the measured cross section as a function of photon energy and gave the result for the {eta} mass, m{sub {eta}}=(547.851{+-}0.031{sub stat.}{+-}0.062{sub syst.}) MeV.

  16. Eta Carinae: Viewed from Multiple Vantage Points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gull, Theodore

    2007-01-01

    The central source of Eta Carinae and its ejecta is a massive binary system buried within a massive interacting wind structure which envelops the two stars. However the hot, less massive companion blows a small cavity in the very massive primary wind, plus ionizes a portion of the massive wind just beyond the wind-wind boundary. We gain insight on this complex structure by examining the spatially-resolved Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) spectra of the central source (0.1") with the wind structure which extends out to nearly an arcsecond (2300AU) and the wind-blown boundaries, plus the ejecta of the Little Homunculus. Moreover, the spatially resolved Very Large Telescope/UltraViolet Echelle Spectrograph (VLT/UVES) stellar spectrum (one arcsecond) and spatially sampled spectra across the foreground lobe of the Homunculus provide us vantage points from different angles relative to line of sight. Examples of wind line profiles of Fe II, and the.highly excited [Fe III], [Ne III], [Ar III] and [S III)], plus other lines will be presented.

  17. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  18. Search for the weak decay eta ' -> K-+/-pi(-/+) and precise measurement of the branching fraction B(J/psi -> phi eta ')

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, Z.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Löhner, H.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Tiemens, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first search for the rare decay of eta' into K-+/- pi(-/+) in J/psi -> phi eta', using a sample of 1.3 x 10(9) J/psi events collected with the BESIII detector. No significant signal is observed, and the upper limit at the 90% confidence level for the ratio B(eta' -> K-+/-

  19. Multiwavelength Imaging Of YSOs With Disk In South Pillars Of Eta Carina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. A.; Porras, B. A.

    2013-04-01

    We present multiwavelength imaginery and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of 15 Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) with disk components lying on the South Pillars region close to Eta Carina (η Car). The SEDs include IR fluxes from 2MASS, IRAC, MSX, AKARI, and MIPS-24 μm, and 1.1 mm flux from AzTEC camera at the ASTE antenna. Millimeter fluxes help to constrain the number of fitted models, which provide the list of physical parameters for the star, the disk and the envelope. We then compare the parameters of the YSOs and their spatial location within the star forming region.

  20. Nearly isentropic flow at sizeable $\\eta/s$ arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Kurkela, Aleksi; Wu, Bin

    Non-linearities in the harmonic spectra of hadron-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions provide evidence for the dynamical response to azimuthal spatial eccentricities. Here, we demonstrate within the framework of transport theory that even the mildest interaction correction to a picture of free-streaming particle distributions, namely the inclusion of one perturbatively weak interaction ("one-hit dynamics"), will generically give rise to all observed linear and non-linear structures. We further argue that transport theory naturally accounts within the range of its validity for realistic signal sizes of the linear and non-linear response coefficients observed in azimuthal momentum anisotropies with a large mean free path of the order of the system size in peripheral ($\\sim 50 \\%$ centrality) PbPb or central pPb collisions. The shear viscosity to entropy density ratio $\\eta/s$ of such a transport theory is approximately an order of magnitude larger than that of an almost perfect fluid. The phenomenological su...

  1. Tests of high-resolution simulations over a region of complex terrain in Southeast coast of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Sin Chan; Luís Gomes, Jorge; Ristic, Ivan; Mesinger, Fedor; Sueiro, Gustavo; Andrade, Diego; Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The Eta Model is used operationally by INPE at the Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC) to produce weather forecasts over South America since 1997. The model has gone through upgrades along these years. In order to prepare the model for operational higher resolution forecasts, the model is configured and tested over a region of complex topography located near the coast of Southeast Brazil. The model domain includes the two Brazilians cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, urban areas, preserved tropical forest, pasture fields, and complex terrain where it can rise from sea level up to about 1000 m. Accurate near-surface wind direction and magnitude are needed for the power plant emergency plan. Besides, the region suffers from frequent events of floods and landslides, therefore accurate local forecasts are required for disaster warnings. The objective of this work is to carry out a series of numerical experiments to test and evaluate high resolution simulations in this complex area. Verification of model runs uses observations taken from the nuclear power plant and higher resolution reanalyses data. The runs were tested in a period when flow was predominately forced by local conditions and in a period forced by frontal passage. The Eta Model was configured initially with 2-km horizontal resolution and 50 layers. The Eta-2km is a second nesting, it is driven by Eta-15km, which in its turn is driven by Era-Interim reanalyses. The series of experiments consists of replacing surface layer stability function, adjusting cloud microphysics scheme parameters, further increasing vertical and horizontal resolutions. By replacing the stability function for the stable conditions substantially increased the katabatic winds and verified better against the tower wind data. Precipitation produced by the model was excessive in the region. Increasing vertical resolution to 60 layers caused a further increase in precipitation production. This excessive

  2. Numerical simulation for regional ozone concentrations: A case study by weather research and forecasting/chemistry (WRF/Chem) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habib Al Razi, Khandakar Md; Hiroshi, Moritomi [Environmental and Renewable Energy System, Graduate School of Engineering, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu City, 501-1193 (Japan)

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this research is to better understand and predict the atmospheric concentration distribution of ozone and its precursor (in particular, within the Planetary Boundary Layer (Within 110 km to 12 km) over Kasaki City and the Greater Tokyo Area using fully coupled online WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry) model. In this research, a serious and continuous high ozone episode in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) during the summer of 14–18 August 2010 was investigated using the observation data. We analyzed the ozone and other trace gas concentrations, as well as the corresponding weather conditions in this high ozone episode by WRF/Chem model. The simulation results revealed that the analyzed episode was mainly caused by the impact of accumulation of pollution rich in ozone over the Greater Tokyo Area. WRF/Chem has shown relatively good performance in modeling of this continuous high ozone episode, the simulated and the observed concentrations of ozone, NOx and NO2 are basically in agreement at Kawasaki City, with best correlation coefficients of 0.87, 0.70 and 0.72 respectively. Moreover, the simulations of WRF/Chem with WRF preprocessing software (WPS) show a better agreement with meteorological observations such as surface winds and temperature profiles in the ground level of this area. As a result the surface ozone simulation performances have been enhanced in terms of the peak ozone and spatial patterns, whereas WRF/Chem has been succeeded to generate meteorological fields as well as ozone, NOx, NO2 and NO.

  3. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  4. Odd and even partial waves of eta pi(-) and eta 'pi(-) in pi(-) p -> eta(('))pi(-)p at 191 GeV/c

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Adolph, C.; Akhunzyanov, R.; Alexeev, M. G.; Alexeev, G. D.; Amoroso, A.; Andrieux, V.; Anosov, V.; Austregesilo, A.; Badelek, B.; Balestra, F.; Barth, J.; Baum, G.; Beck, R.; Bedfer, Y.; Berlin, A.; Bernhard, J.; Bicker, K.; Bielert, E. R.; Bieling, J.; Birsa, R.; Bisplinghoff, J.; Bodlak, M.; Boer, M.; Bordalo, P.; Bradamante, F.; Braun, C.; Bressan, A.; Büchele, M.; Burtin, E.; Capozza, L.; Chiosso, M.; Chung, S. U.; Cicuttin, A.; Crespo, M.; Curiel, Q.; Dalla Torre, S.; Dasgupta, S. S.; Dasgupta, S.; Denisov, O. Yu.; Donskov, S. V.; Doshita, N.; Duic, V.; Dünnweber, W.; Dziewiecki, M.; Efremov, A.; Elia, C.; Eversheim, P.D.; Eyrich, W.; Faessler, M.; Ferrero, A.; Finger jr., M.; Fischer, A.; Franco, C.; Fresne von Hohenesche, N.; Friedrich, J. M.; Frolov, V.; Gautheron, F.; Gavrichtchouk, O. P.; Gerassimov, S.; Geyer, R.; Gnesi, I.; Gobbo, B.; Goertz, S.; Gorzellik, M.; Grabmüller, S.; Grasso, A.; Grube, B.; Grussenmeyer, T.; Guskov, A.; Haas, F.; von Harrach, D.; Hahne, D.; Hashimoto, R.; Heinsius, F. H.; Herrmann, F.; Hinterberger, F.; Höppner, Ch.; Horikawa, N.; d´Hose, N.; Huber, S.; Ishimoto, S.; Ivanov, A.; Ivanshin, Yu.; Iwata, T.; Jahn, R.; Jary, V.; Jasinski, P.; Jörg, P.; Joosten, R.; Kabuss, E.; Ketzer, B.; Khaustov, G. V.; Khokhlov, Yu. A.; Kisselev, Y.; Klein, F.; Klimaszewski, A. D.; Koivuniemi, J. H.; Kolosov, V. N.; Kondo, K.; Königsmann, K.; Konorov, I.; Konstantinov, V. F.; Kotzinian, A. M.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krämer, M.; Kroumchtein, Z. V.; Kuchinski, N.; Kunne, F.; Kurek, K.; Kurjata, R. P.; Lednev, A. A.; Lehmann, A.; Levillain, M.; Levorato, S.; Lichtenstadt, J.; Maggiora, A.; Magnon, A.; Makke, N.; Mallot, G. K.; Marchand, C.; Martin, A.; Marzec, J.; Matoušek, J.; Matsuda, H.; Matsuda, T.; Meshcheryakov, G.; Meyer, W.; Michigami, T.; Mikhailov, Yu. V.; Miyachi, Y.; Nagaytsev, A.; Nagel, T.; Nerling, F.; Neubert, S.; Neyret, D.; Nový, J.; Nowak, W. D.; Nunes, A.S.; Olshevsky, A. G.; Orlov, I.; Ostrick, M.; Panknin, R.; Panzieri, D.; Parsamyan, B.; Paul, S.; Peshekhonov, D. V.; Platchkov, S.; Pochodzalla, J.; Polyakov, V.; Pretz, J.; Quaresma, M.; Quintans, C.; Ramos, S.; Regali, C.; Reicherz, G.; Rocco, E.; Rossiyskaya, N. S.; Ryabchikov, D.; Rychter, A.; Samoylenko, V. D.; Sandacz, A.; Sarkar, S.; Savin, I. A.; Sbrizzai, G.; Schiavon, P.; Schill, C.; Schlüter, T.; Schmidt, K.; Schmieden, H.; Schönning, K.; Schopferer, S.; Schott, M.; Shevchenko, O. Yu.; Silva, L.; Sinha, L.; Sirtl, S.; Slunecka, M.; Sosio, S.; Sozzi, F.; Srnka, Aleš; Steiger, L.; Stolarski, M.; Sulc, M.; Sulej, R.; Suzuki, H.; Szabelski, A.; Szameitat, T.; Sznajder, P.; Takekawa, S.; Ter Wolbeek, J.; Tessaro, S.; Tessarotto, F.; Thibaud, F.; Uhl, S.; Uman, I.; Virius, M.; Wang, L.; Weisrock, T.; Wilfert, M.; Windmolders, R.; Wollny, H.; Zaremba, K.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zemlyanichkina, E.; Ziembicki, M.; Zink, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 740, 5 JAN (2015), s. 303-311 ISSN 0370-2693 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1212 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : eta-pi * annihilation * resonance * systems * state * rest Subject RIV: BH - Optics, Masers, Lasers Impact factor: 4.787, year: 2015

  5. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  6. Search for the $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime$ and $\\Lambda_b^0\\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta$ decays with the LHCb detector

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; d'Argent, Philippe; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Bel, Lennaert; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Birnkraut, Alex; Bizzeti, Andrea; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Braun, Svende; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carniti, Paolo; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casanova Mohr, Raimon; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cavallero, Giovanni; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Dey, Biplab; Di Canto, Angelo; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dufour, Laurent; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferrari, Fabio; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fohl, Klaus; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gastaldi, Ugo; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Geraci, Angelo; Gerick, David; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Girard, Olivier Göran; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Humair, Thibaud; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Kenzie, Matthew; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kuonen, Axel Kevin; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Liu, Xuesong; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lucchesi, Donatella; Lucio Martinez, Miriam; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Maguire, Kevin; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Manning, Peter Michael; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathad, Abhijit; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Matthieu, Kecke; Mauri, Andrea; Maurin, Brice; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Mitzel, Dominik Stefan; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Janine; Müller, Katharina; Müller, Vanessa; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Ninci, Daniele; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Osorio Rodrigues, Bruno; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Aranzazu; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Pescatore, Luca; Petridis, Konstantinos; Petrolini, Alessandro; Petruzzo, Marco; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Piucci, Alessio; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Poikela, Tuomas; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Quagliani, Renato; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Lopez, Jairo Alexis; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santimaria, Marco; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmelzer, Timon; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schubiger, Maxime; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skillicorn, Ian; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Iwan Thomas; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Sterpka, Christopher Francis; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Tekampe, Tobias; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Trabelsi, Karim; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Weiden, Andreas; Whitehead, Mark; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Mark Richard James; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Williams, Timothy; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yu, Jiesheng; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang

    2015-09-01

    A search is performed for the as yet unobserved baryonic $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime$ and $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta$ decays with 3$fb^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment. The $B^0 \\rightarrow K_S^0 \\eta^\\prime$ decay is used as a normalisation channel. No significant signal is observed for the $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime$ decay. An upper limit is found on the branching fraction of $\\mathcal{B}(\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta^\\prime)<3.1\\times10^{-6}$ at 90% confidence level. Evidence is seen for the presence of the $\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta$ decay at the level of $3\\sigma$ significance, with a branching fraction $\\mathcal{B}(\\Lambda_b^0 \\rightarrow \\Lambda \\eta)=(9.3^{+7.3}_{-5.3})\\times10^{-6}$.

  7. The reactions K-p→Λπ0, Λeta, Λeta' at 4.2 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marzano, F.; Hemingway, R.J.; Loverre, P.F.; Marechal, B.; Schrempp, B.; Blokzijl, R.; Hoogland, W.; Kluyver, J.C.; Massaro, G.G.G.; Tiecke, H.G.; Walle, R.T. van de; Vergeest, J.S.M.

    1977-01-01

    In a high statistics CERN 2 m bubble chamber experiment the differential cross sections and polarizations of the Λ for the reactions K - p→Λπ 0 , Λeta, Λeta' at 4.2 GeV/c have been measured. The reaction K - p→Λeta exhibits a pronounced dip around -t approximately 0.5 (GeV/c) 2 and all three reactions show a significant backward peaking (-u 2 ). The Λ polarization in the reaction K - p→Λπ 0 is measured to be significantly different from zero throughout most of the available t-range. Forward cross sections enable a determination of Rsub(T), the ratio of singlet/octet coupling eta 1 KK**/eta 8 KK**. Backward cross sections are utilized to estimate the effective eta-nucleon coupling constant gsub(etaNN) 2 over the -u range 0-1.5 (GeV/c) 2 . (Auth.)

  8. Forecast of Wind Speed with a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Region in the State of Oaxaca, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Lastres Danguillecourt

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo presenta los resultados preliminares de la configuración de una red neuronal artificial (ANN, de tipo alimentación hacia adelante con el método de entrenamiento de retro-propagación para pronosticar la velocidad de viento en la región del Istmo de Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, México. La base de datos utilizada abarca los años comprendidos entre Junio 2008- Noviembre 2011, y fue suministrada por una estación meteorológica ubicada en la Universidad del Istmo campus Tehuantepec. Los experimentos se realizaron utilizando las siguientes variables: velocidad del viento, presión, temperatura y fecha. Al mismo tiempo se hicieron siete pruebas combinando estas variables, comparando su error cuadrático medio (MSE y el coeficiente de correlación r, con los datos de predicción y experimentales. En esta investigación, se propone una ANN de dos capas ocultas, para un pronóstico de 48 horas.This paper presents the preliminary results of setting up an artificial neural network (ANN of the feed forward type with the backpropagation training method for forecast wind speed in the region in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, Mexico. The database used covers the years from June 2008 - November 2011, and was supplied by a meteorological station located at the Isthmus University campus Tehuantepec. The experiments were done using the following variables: wind speed, pressure, temperature and date. At the same time were done seven tests combining these variables, comparing their mean square error (MSE and coefficient correlation r, with data the predicting and experimental. In this research, is proposed a ANN of two hidden layers, for a forecast of 48 hours.

  9. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    observations and several years of archived forecasts, overall empirical error distributions termed 'overall error' were for each gauge derived for a range of relevant forecast lead times. b) The error distributions vary strongly with the hydrometeorological situation, therefore a subdivision into the hydrological cases 'low flow, 'rising flood', 'flood', flood recession' was introduced. c) For the sake of numerical compression, theoretical distributions were fitted to the empirical distributions using the method of moments. Here, the normal distribution was generally best suited. d) Further data compression was achieved by representing the distribution parameters as a function (second-order polynome) of lead time. In general, the 'overall error' obtained from the above procedure is most useful in regions where large human impact occurs and where the influence of the meteorological forecast is limited. In upstream regions however, forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atmosphere, which is contained in the spread of an ensemble forecast. Including this dynamically in the hydrological forecast uncertainty estimation requires prior elimination of the contribution of the weather forecast to the 'overall error'. This was achieved by calculating long series of hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The resulting error distribution is termed 'model error' and can be applied on hydrological ensemble forecasts, where ensemble rainfall forecasts are used as forcing. The concept will be illustrated by examples (good and bad ones) covering a wide range of catchment sizes, hydrometeorological regimes and quality of hydrological model calibration. The methodology to combine the static and dynamic shares of uncertainty will be presented in part II of this study.

  10. Study of pp{yields}pp{eta} reaction at threshold; Etude de la reaction pp{yields}pp{eta} au seuil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taleb, A

    1994-11-01

    The {eta} production has been studied through the pp {yields} pp{eta} reaction at threshold. Data were taken at the Synchrotron of the ``Laboratoire National Saturne``. The detection in coincidence of the two protons scattered near 0 deg and analysed with the magnetic spectrometer SPES3 allows the reconstruction of missing mass spectra for the {eta} signature. A simulation program which takes into account all the experimental set up characteristics has been realized and tested through the pp {yields} d{pi}{sup +} reaction detected simultaneously with pp {yields} pp{eta}. The generated proton momentum spectra for pp {yields} pp{eta} show a pronounced {eta} mass dependence. This characteristic, connected to the kinematical properties of pp {yields} pp{eta} at threshold, is used to extract the mass of the meson {eta}. The obtained value, m{sub {eta}} = 547.65 {+-} 0.18 MeV, is in good agreement with measurement done recently through the pd {yields} {sup H}e{eta} reaction. The total cross section {sigma}{sub t} of pp {yields} pp{eta} measured at 1260, 1265 and 1300 MeV presents a strong energy dependence. This cross section increases less with energy than the phase-space. The influence of p-p and {eta}-p final state interactions in our measurements is studied. Our results are compared with theoretical predictions and assess the dominant character of the baryonic resonance N{sup *}(1535) in the {eta} mechanism production at threshold. These experimental results give an energy dependence which is not well reproduced by the theoretical predictions. This discrepancy could be an incorrect description of the {eta}-p interaction in the models. (author). 48 refs., 60 figs., 15 tabs.

  11. A COMPANION AS THE CAUSE OF LATITUDE-DEPENDENT EFFECTS IN THE WIND OF ETA CARINAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groh, J. H.; Madura, T. I.; Weigelt, G.; Hillier, D. J.; Kruip, C. J. H.

    2012-01-01

    We analyze spatially resolved spectroscopic observations of the Eta Carinae binary system obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope/STIS. Eta Car is enshrouded by the dusty Homunculus nebula, which scatters light emitted by the central binary and provides a unique opportunity to study a massive binary system from different vantage points. We investigate the latitudinal and azimuthal dependence of Hα line profiles caused by the presence of a wind-wind collision (WWC) cavity created by the companion star. Using two-dimensional radiative transfer models, we find that the wind cavity can qualitatively explain the observed line profiles around apastron. Regions of the Homunculus which scatter light that propagated through the WWC cavity show weaker or no Hα absorption. Regions scattering light that propagated through a significant portion of the primary wind show stronger P Cygni absorption. Our models overestimate the Hα absorption formed in the primary wind, which we attribute to photoionization by the companion, not presently included in the models. We can qualitatively explain the latitudinal changes that occur during periastron, shedding light on the nature of Eta Car's spectroscopic events. Our models support the idea that during the brief period of time around periastron when the primary wind flows unimpeded toward the observer, Hα absorption occurs in directions toward the central object and Homunculus SE pole, but not toward equatorial regions close to the Weigelt blobs. We suggest that observed latitudinal and azimuthal variations are dominated by the companion star via the WWC cavity, rather than by rapid rotation of the primary star.

  12. Imaging Shock Fronts in the Outer Ejecta of Eta Carinae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nathan

    2017-08-01

    Although Eta Car has been imaged many times with HST to monitor the central star and the bright Homunculus Nebula, we propose the first WFC3 imaging of Eta Car to study the more extended Outer Ejecta from previous eruptions. WFC3 has two key filters that have not been used before to image Eta Car, which will provide critical physical information about its eruptive history: (1) F280N with WFC3/UVIS will produce the first Mg II 2800 image of Eta Car, the sharpest image of its complex Outer Ejecta, and will unambiguously trace shock fronts, and (2) F126N with WFC3/IR will sample [Fe II] 12567 arising in the densest post-shock gas. Eta Car is surrounded by a bright, soft X-ray shell seen in Chandra images, which arises from the fastest 1840s ejecta overtaking slower older material. Our recent proper motion measurements show that the outer knots were ejected in two outbursts several hundred years before the 1840s eruption, and spectroscopy of light echoes has recently revealed extremely fast ejecta during the 1840s that indicate an explosive event. Were those previous eruptions explosive as well? If so, were they as energetic, did they also have such fast ejecta, and did they have the same geometry? The structure and excitation of the Outer Ejecta hold unique clues for reconstructing Eta Car's violent mass loss history. The locations of shock fronts in circumstellar material provide critical information, because they identify past discontinuities in the mass loss. This is one of the only ways to investigate the long term (i.e. centuries) evolution and duty cycle of eruptive mass loss in the most massive stars.

  13. Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haidvogel, D.B.; Arango, H.; Budgell, W.P.; Cornuelle, B.D.; Curchitser, E.; Di, Lorenzo E.; Fennel, K.; Geyer, W.R.; Hermann, A.J.; Lanerolle, L.; Levin, J.; McWilliams, J.C.; Miller, A.J.; Moore, A.M.; Powell, T.M.; Shchepetkin, A.F.; Sherwood, C.R.; Signell, R.P.; Warner, J.C.; Wilkin, J.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic improvements in algorithmic design of regional ocean circulation models have led to significant enhancement in simulation ability across a wide range of space/time scales and marine system types. As an example, we briefly review the Regional Ocean Modeling System, a member of a general class of three-dimensional, free-surface, terrain-following numerical models. Noteworthy characteristics of the ROMS computational kernel include: consistent temporal averaging of the barotropic mode to guarantee both exact conservation and constancy preservation properties for tracers; redefined barotropic pressure-gradient terms to account for local variations in the density field; vertical interpolation performed using conservative parabolic splines; and higher-order, quasi-monotone advection algorithms. Examples of quantitative skill assessment are shown for a tidally driven estuary, an ice-covered high-latitude sea, a wind- and buoyancy-forced continental shelf, and a mid-latitude ocean basin. The combination of moderate-order spatial approximations, enhanced conservation properties, and quasi-monotone advection produces both more robust and accurate, and less diffusive, solutions than those produced in earlier terrain-following ocean models. Together with advanced methods of data assimilation and novel observing system technologies, these capabilities constitute the necessary ingredients for multi-purpose regional ocean prediction systems. 

  14. etaγ decays of rho0, ω, and phi mesons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, D.E.; Fukushima, Y.; Harvey, J.; Lobkowicz, F.; May, E.N.; Nelson, C.A. Jr.; Thorndike, E.H.

    1977-01-01

    etaγ decays of rho 0 , ω, and phi are studied. We find GAMMA (phi→etaγ) =55 +- 12 keV. Our data admit two solutions for (rho 0 , ω) →etaγ: Either GAMMA (rho 0 →etaγ) =50 +- 13 keV, GAMMA (ω→etaγ) =3.0 +2 /sup ./ 5 /sub -/ 1 /sub ./ 8 keV, and the (ω,rho) →etaγ relative decay phase is near zero; or GAMMA (rho 0 →etaγ) =76 +- 15 keV, GAMMA (ω→etaγ) =29 +- 7 keV, and the decay phase is near 180degree

  15. Start of Eta Car's X-ray Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Michael F.; Liburd, Jamar; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Gull, Theodore; Madura, Thomas; Teodoro, Mairan; Moffat, Anthony; Richardson, Noel; Russell, Chris; Pollock, Andrew; hide

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of Eta Car's X-ray spectrum in the 2-10 keV band using quicklook data from the XRay Telescope on Swift shows that the flux on July 30, 2014 was 4.9 plus or minus 2.0×10(exp-12) ergs s(exp-1)cm(exp-2). This flux is nearly equal to the X-ray minimum flux seen by RXTE in 2009, 2003.5, and 1998, and indicates that Eta Car has reached its X-ray minimum, as expected based on the 2024-day period derived from previous 2-10 keV observations with RXTE.

  16. Early Chandra X-ray Observations of Eta Carinae

    OpenAIRE

    Seward, F. D.; Butt, Y. M.; Karovska, M.; Schlegel, A. Prestwich. E. M.; Corcoran, M.

    2001-01-01

    Sub-arcsecond resolution Chandra observations of Eta Carinae reveal a 40 arcsec X 70 arcsec ring or partial shell of X-ray emission surrounding an unresolved, bright, central source. The spectrum of the central source is strongly absorbed and can be fit with a high-temperature thermal continuum and emission lines. The surrounding shell is well outside the optical/IR bipolar nebula and is coincident with the Outer Shell of Eta Carinae. The X-ray spectrum of the Shell is much softer than that o...

  17. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  18. Pacific island health inequities forecast to grow unless profound changes are made to health systems in the region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matheson, Don; Park, Kunhee; Soakai, Taniela Sunia

    2017-10-01

    Objective Twenty years ago the Pacific's health ministers developed a 'Healthy Islands' vision to lead health development in the subregion. This paper reports on a review of health development over this period and discusses the implications for the attainment of the health related Sustainable Development Goals. Methods The review used qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative review included conducting semi-structured interviews with Pacific Island Government Ministers and officials, regional agencies, health workers and community members. A document review was also conducted. The quantitative review consisted of examining secondary data from regional and global data collections. Results The review found improvement in health indicators, but increasing health inequality between the Pacific and the rest of the world. Many of the larger island populations were unable to reach the health Millennium Development Goals. The 'Healthy Islands' vision remained an inspiration to health ministers and senior officials in the region. However, implementation of the 'Healthy Islands' approach was patchy, under-resourced and un-sustained. Communicable and Maternal and Child Health challenges persist alongside unprecedented levels of non-communicable diseases, inadequate levels of health finance and few skilled health workers as the major impediments to health development for many of the Pacific's countries. Conclusions The current trajectory for health in the Pacific will lead to increasing health inequity with the rest of the world. The challenges to health in the region include persisting communicable disease and maternal and child health threats, unprecedented levels of NCDs, climate change and instability, as well as low economic growth. In order to change the fortunes of this region in the age of the SDGs, a substantial investment in health is required, including in the health workforce, by countries and donors alike. That investment requires a nuanced response

  19. Study of high momentum eta' production in B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubert, B

    2004-01-05

    The authors measure the branching fraction for the charmless semi-inclusive process B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s}, where the {eta}{prime} meson has a momentum in the range 2.0 to 2.7 GeV/c in the {Upsilon}(4S) center-of-mass frame and X{sub s} represents a system comprising a kaon and zero to four pions. They find {Beta}(B {yields} {eta}{prime} X{sub s}) = (3.9 {+-} 0.8(stat) {+-} 0.5(syst) {+-} 0.8(model)) x 10{sup -4}. They also obtain the X{sub s} mass distribution and find that it tends to favor models predicting high masses.

  20. 29 CFR 500.132 - Applicable Federal standards: ETA and OSHA housing standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Applicable Federal standards: ETA and OSHA housing... Migrant Workers Housing Safety and Health § 500.132 Applicable Federal standards: ETA and OSHA housing... § 500.131, all migrant housing is subject to either the ETA standards or the OSHA standards, as follows...

  1. Measurement of the Color-Suppressed B0->D(*)0 pi0 /omega/eta/eta Prime Branching Fractions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prudent, X

    2008-11-05

    The authors report results on the branching fraction (BF) measurement of the color-suppressed decays {bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, D*{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, D{sup 0}{eta}, D*{sup 0}{eta}, D{sup 0}{omega}, D*{sup 0}{omega}, D{sup 0}{eta}{prime}, and D*{sup 0}{eta}{prime}. They measure the branching fractions BF(D{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = (2.78 {+-} 0.08 {+-} 0.20) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D*{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}) = (1.78 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.23) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D{sup 0}{eta}) = (2.41 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.17) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D*{sup 0}{eta}) = (2.32 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.22) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D{sup 0}{omega}) = (2.77 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.22) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D*{sup 0}{omega}) = (4.44 {+-} 0.23 {+-} 0.61) x 10{sup -4}, BF(D{sup 0}{eta}{prime}) = (1.38 {+-} 0.12 {+-} 0.22) x 10{sup -4} and BF(D*{sup 0}{eta}{prime}) = (1.29 {+-} 0.23 {+-} 0.23) x 10{sup -4}, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The result is based on a sample of (454 {+-} 5) x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs collected at the {Upsilon}(4S) resonance from 1999 to 2007, with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II storage rings at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The measurements are compared to theoretical predictions by factorization, SCET and pQCD. The presence of final state interactions predictions by factorization, SCET and pQCD. The presence of final state interactions is confirmed and the measurements seem to be more in favor of SCET compared to pQCD.

  2. Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

    2018-05-29

    In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.

  3. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  4. A convenient synthetic route to benz[cd]azulenes: versatile ligands with the potential to bind metals in an eta5, eta6, or eta7 fashion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balduzzi, Sonya; Müller-Bunz, Helge; McGlinchey, Michael J

    2004-10-25

    A facile method for preparing the 2H-benz[cd]azulene system, based upon an elaboration of the guaiazulene framework, is presented. Aerial oxidation to the corresponding 8-(2-propylidene)-benz[cd]azulene, and also cycloaddition reactions with tetracyanoethylene (TCNE), are described. The first X-ray crystal structure of a 2H-benz[cd]azulene, as an eta6-coordinated Cr(CO)3 complex, is reported.

  5. eta pi(+)pi(-) Resonant Structure around 1.8 GeV/c(2) and eta in J/psi -> omega eta pi(+)pi(-)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Alberto, D.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Baldini, R.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A. C.; Cao, G. F.; Cao, X. X.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fan, R. R.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Greco, M.; Grishin, S.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Komamiya, S.; Kuehn, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, G. C.; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Y. W.; Liu, Yong; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Z. Q.; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, T.; Ma, X.; Ma, X. Y.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Muchnoi, N. Yu; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Sonoda, S.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Varner, G. S.; Wan, X.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xu, Z. Z.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, M.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, L.; Yu, S. P. Yu; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, Jiawei; Zhao, Jingwei; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhao, Z. L.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhong, L.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

    2011-01-01

    We present results of a study of the decay J/psi -> omega eta pi(+)pi(-) using a sample of (225.2 +/- 2.8) x 10(6) J/psi events collected by the BESIII detector, and report the observation of a new process J/psi -> omega X(1870) with a statistical significance of 7.2 sigma, in which X(1870) decays

  6. Chirally motivated separable potential model for eta N amplitudes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cieplý, Aleš; Smejkal, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 919, DEC (2013), s. 46-66 ISSN 0375-9474 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP203/12/2126 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : Chrial model * eta-nucleon amplitude * Baryon resonances Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 2.499, year: 2013

  7. Study of the reaction π-p→eta'n

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleem, Mohammad; Fazal-e-Aleem

    1981-01-01

    The differential cross sections for the process π - p→eta'n measured very recently have been fitted by using simple Regge pole model with phenomenological residue functions and two exchanged trajectories A 2 and delta. The polarisations at p(lab)=15 and 40 GeV/c have been predicted

  8. Maitasunean eta errespetuan hezten: 0-3 urte bitartekoen harmonia

    OpenAIRE

    Erice Olaizola, Ane

    2015-01-01

    LABURPENA: Aurrerapen zientifikoek aurrera egin ahala, lehen haurtzarorako begirada eraldatu egin da, bereziki garapen motorraren alorrean. Haurtxoa izaki pasibo bezala ikusten zuten ikuskerek, subjektuaren konpetentzia goiztiarren aurrean begiruneko jarrerak gartu dituzte. Lan honetan kalitatezko hezkuntza eredu instituzionalizatua garatu zuen Emmi Pikler-en ekarpenak aztertuko ditugu. Eredu honek printzipio pedagogiko zehatz batzuen arabera jaioberria eta haurtxo txikia ikusteko beste era b...

  9. 31 CFR 208.5 - Availability of the ETA SM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Availability of the ETA SM. 208.5 Section 208.5 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERVICE MANAGEMENT OF FEDERAL AGENCY...

  10. High Energy Phenomena in Eta Carinae Roberto F. Viotti , Lucio ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    High Energy Phenomena in Eta Carinae ... Colliding winds model—non-thermal emission—stars: η ... very massive wind. Its unseen compan- ion should be a less evolved early-type star. It was found that the two last spectroscopic minima of June 1992 and December 1997 coincided with two X-ray eclipses detected.

  11. Search for eta '(c) decays into vector meson pairs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Alberto, D.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Baldini, R.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A. C.; Cao, G. F.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kuehn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, S. L.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Y. W.; Liu, Yong; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X.; Ma, X. Y.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Park, J. W.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xu, Z. Z.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, S. P.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. S.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, Jiawei; Zhao, Jingwei; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhao, Z. L.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhong, L.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

    2011-01-01

    The processes eta'(c) -> rho(0)rho(0), K*0K*0, and phi phi are searched for using a sample of 1.06 x 10(8) psi' events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. No signals are observed in any of the three final states. The upper limits on the decay branching fractions are determined

  12. Conservation of charge conjugation in {eta} meson decay; Etude de la conservation de la conjugaison de charge dans les desintegrations du meson {eta}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, A [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, 91 - Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1968-03-01

    The charge asymmetry in the {eta} meson decay is investigated. With 10709 events {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} the asymmetry is (0.3 {+-} 1.1) per cent. 1620 decays {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{gamma} give (1.5 {+-} 2.5) per cent. There is no evidence for charge conjugation violation in electro-magnetic or semi-strong interactions. (author) [French] La symetrie de charge est etudiee dans la desintegration du meson {eta}. Avec 10709 desintegrations {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{pi}{sup 0} l'asymetrie obtenue est de (0.3 {+-} 1.1) pour cent. Les 1620 desintegrations {eta} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}{gamma} donnent (1.5 {+-} 2.5) pour cent. Il n'y a aucune evidence de violation de la conjugaison de charge dans les interactions electromagnetiques ou semi-fortes. (auteur)

  13. Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Donghai; Minnis, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

  14. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

    2017-08-29

    In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

  15. Measurements of the Mass and Width of the eta(c) Using the Decay psi -> gamma eta(c)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Alberto, D.; Ambrose, D. J.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Ferroli, R. B.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M. B.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A. C.; Cao, G. F.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, H. X.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, W. L.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kuehn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, S. L.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Yong; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. Y.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Muchnoi, N. Yu; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S. P.; Park, J. W.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Thorndike, E. H.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. F.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, S. P.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A. Z.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. S.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, Jingwei; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

    2012-01-01

    The mass and width of the lowest-lying S-wave spin singlet charmonium state, the eta(c), are measured using a data sample of 1: 06 x 10(8) psi (3686) decays collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII storage ring. We use a model that incorporates full interference between the signal reaction,

  16. Resolution, Scales and Predictability: Is High Resolution Detrimental To Predictability At Extended Forecast Times?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The traditional views hold that high-resolution limited area models (LAMs) down- scale large-scale lateral boundary information, and that predictability of small scales is short. Inspection of various rms fits/errors has contributed to these views. It would follow that the skill of LAMs should visibly deteriorate compared to that of their driver models at more extended forecast times. The limited area Eta Model at NCEP has an additional handicap of being driven by LBCs of the previous Avn global model run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. This should make its relative skill compared to that of the Avn deteriorate even faster. These views are challenged by various Eta results including rms fits to raobs out to 84 h. It is argued that it is the largest scales that contribute the most to the skill of the Eta relative to that of the Avn.

  17. Does dinitrogen hydrogenation follow different mechanisms for [(eta5-C5Me4H)2Zr]2(mu2,eta2,eta2-N2) and {[PhP(CH2SiMe2NSiMe2CH2)PPh]Zr}2(mu2,eta2,eta2-N2) complexes? A computational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobadova-Parvanova, Petia; Wang, Qingfang; Quinonero-Santiago, David; Morokuma, Keiji; Musaev, Djamaladdin G

    2006-09-06

    The mechanisms of dinitrogen hydrogenation by two different complexes--[(eta(5)-C(5)Me(4)H)(2)Zr](2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)), synthesized by Chirik and co-workers [Nature 2004, 427, 527], and {[P(2)N(2)]Zr}(2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)), where P(2)N(2) = PhP(CH(2)SiMe(2)NSiMe(2)CH(2))(2)PPh, synthesized by Fryzuk and co-workers [Science 1997, 275, 1445]--are compared with density functional theory calculations. The former complex is experimentally known to be capable of adding more than one H(2) molecule to the side-on coordinated N(2) molecule, while the latter does not add more than one H(2). We have shown that the observed difference in the reactivity of these dizirconium complexes is caused by the fact that the former ligand environment is more rigid than the latter. As a result, the addition of the first H(2) molecule leads to two different products: a non-H-bridged intermediate for the Chirik-type complex and a H-bridged intermediate for the Fryzuk-type complex. The non-H-bridged intermediate requires a smaller energy barrier for the second H(2) addition than the H-bridged intermediate. We have also examined the effect of different numbers of methyl substituents in [(eta(5)-C(5)Me(n)H(5)(-)(n))(2)Zr](2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)) for n = 0, 4, and 5 (n = 5 is hypothetical) and [(eta(5)-C(5)H(2)-1,2,4-Me(3))(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))(2)Zr](2)(mu(2),eta(2),eta(2)-N(2)) and have shown that all complexes of this type would follow a similar H(2) addition mechanism. We have also performed an extensive analysis on the factors (side-on coordination of N(2) to two Zr centers, availability of the frontier orbitals with appropriate symmetry, and inflexibility of the catalyst ligand environment) that are required for successful hydrogenation of the coordinated dinitrogen.

  18. Day-Ahead Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Using Optimized ABC-Based Neural Network with Sliding Window Technique: The Case Study of Regional Basis in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Akpinar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The increase of energy consumption in the world is reflected in the consumption of natural gas. However, this increment requires additional investment. This effect leads imbalances in terms of demand forecasting, such as applying penalties in the case of error rates occurring beyond the acceptable limits. As the forecasting errors increase, penalties increase exponentially. Therefore, the optimal use of natural gas as a scarce resource is important. There are various demand forecast ranges for natural gas and the most difficult range among these demands is the day-ahead forecasting, since it is hard to implement and makes predictions with low error rates. The objective of this study is stabilizing gas tractions on day-ahead demand forecasting using low-consuming subscriber data for minimizing error using univariate artificial bee colony-based artificial neural networks (ANN-ABC. For this purpose, households and low-consuming commercial users’ four-year consumption data between the years of 2011–2014 are gathered in daily periods. Previous consumption values are used to forecast day-ahead consumption values with sliding window technique and other independent variables are not taken into account. Dataset is divided into two parts. First, three-year daily consumption values are used with a seven day window for training the networks, while the last year is used for the day-ahead demand forecasting. Results show that ANN-ABC is a strong, stable, and effective method with a low error rate of 14.9 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE for training utilizing MAPE with a univariate sliding window technique.

  19. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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  19. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) [12 km

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) is one of the major regional weather forecast models run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction...

  18. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  19. Regional climate modeling: Should one attempt improving on the large scales? Lateral boundary condition scheme: Any impact?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veljovic, Katarina; Rajkovic, Borivoj [Belgrade Univ. (RS). Inst. of Meteorology; Fennessy, Michael J.; Altshuler, Eric L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Mesinger, Fedor [Maryland Univ., College Park (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center; Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Belgrade (RS)

    2010-06-15

    A considerable number of authors presented experiments in which degradation of large scale circulation occurred in regional climate integrations when large-scale nudging was not used (e.g., von Storch et al., 2000; Biner et al., 2000; Rockel et al., 2008; Sanchez-Gomez et al., 2008; Alexandru et al., 2009; among others). We here show an earlier 9-member ensemble result of the June-August precipitation difference over the contiguous United States between the ''flood year'' of 1993 and the ''drought year'' of 1988, in which the Eta model nested in the COLA AGCM gave a rather accurate depiction of the analyzed difference, even though the driver AGCM failed in doing so to the extent of having a minimum in the area where the maximum ought to be. It is suggested that this could hardly have been possible without an RCM's improvement in the large scales of the driver AGCM. We further revisit the issue by comparing the large scale skill of the Eta RCM against that of a global ECMWF 32-day ensemble forecast used as its driver. Another issue we are looking into is that of the lateral boundary condition (LBC) scheme. The question we ask is whether the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme is necessary for a desirable RCM performance? We address this by running the Eta in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these is the traditional relaxation scheme and the other is the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. The skills of these two sets of RCM forecasts are compared against each other and also against that of their driver. A novelty in our experiments is the verification used. In order to test the large scale skill we are looking at the forecast position accuracy of the strongest winds at the jet stream level, which we have taken as 250 hPa. We do this by calculating bias adjusted

  20. High rate, fast timing Glass RPC for the high $\\eta$ CMS muon detectors

    CERN Document Server

    INSPIRE-00185093; Lagarde, François; Laktineh, Imad; Buridon, Victor; Chen, Xiushan; Combaret, Christophe; Eynard, Alexis; Germani, Lionel; Grenier, Gerald; Mathez, Hervé; Mirabito, Laurent; Petrukhin, Alexei; Steen, Arnaud; Tromeur, William; Wang, Yi; Gong, A.; Moreau, Nathalie; de la Taille, Christophe; Dulucq, Fréderic

    2017-02-11

    The HL-LHC phase is designed to increase by an order of magnitude the amount of data to be collected by the LHC experiments. To achieve this goal in a reasonable time scale the instantaneous luminosity would also increase by an order of magnitude up to $6 \\cdot 10^{34}$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$. The region of the forward muon spectrometer ($|\\eta| > 1.6$) is not equipped with RPC stations. The increase of the expected particles rate up to 2 kHz/cm$^2$ ( including a safety factor 3 ) motivates the installation of RPC chambers to guarantee redundancy with the CSC chambers already present. The actual RPC technology of CMS cannot sustain the expected background level. A new generation Glass-RPC (GRPC) using low resistivity glass (LR) is proposed to equip at least the two most far away of the four high eta muon stations of CMS. The design of small size prototypes and the studies of their performances under high rate particles flux is presented.