WorldWideScience

Sample records for estimation trends linked

  1. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  2. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  3. TRENDS IN ESTIMATED MIXING DEPTH DAILY MAXIMUMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R; Amy DuPont, A; Robert Kurzeja, R; Matt Parker, M

    2007-11-12

    Mixing depth is an important quantity in the determination of air pollution concentrations. Fireweather forecasts depend strongly on estimates of the mixing depth as a means of determining the altitude and dilution (ventilation rates) of smoke plumes. The Savannah River United States Forest Service (USFS) routinely conducts prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a heavily wooded Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. For many years, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has provided forecasts of weather conditions in support of the fire program, including an estimated mixing depth using potential temperature and turbulence change with height at a given location. This paper examines trends in the average estimated mixing depth daily maximum at the SRS over an extended period of time (4.75 years) derived from numerical atmospheric simulations using two versions of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This allows for differences to be seen between the model versions, as well as trends on a multi-year time frame. In addition, comparisons of predicted mixing depth for individual days in which special balloon soundings were released are also discussed.

  4. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  5. Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

  6. Estimating Rain Attenuation In Satellite Communication Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, R. M.

    1991-01-01

    Attenuation computed with help of statistical model and meteorological data. NASA Lewis Research Center Satellite Link Attenuation Model (SLAM) program QuickBASIC computer program evaluating static and dynamic statistical assessment of impact of rain attenuation on communication link established between Earth terminal and geosynchronous satellite. Application in specification, design, and assessment of satellite communication links for any terminal location in continental United States. Written in Microsoft QuickBASIC.

  7. An Accurate Link Correlation Estimator for Improving Wireless Protocol Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhiwei; Xu, Xianghua; Dong, Wei; Bu, Jiajun

    2015-01-01

    Wireless link correlation has shown significant impact on the performance of various sensor network protocols. Many works have been devoted to exploiting link correlation for protocol improvements. However, the effectiveness of these designs heavily relies on the accuracy of link correlation measurement. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art link correlation measurement and analyze the limitations of existing works. We then propose a novel lightweight and accurate link correlation estimation (LACE) approach based on the reasoning of link correlation formation. LACE combines both long-term and short-term link behaviors for link correlation estimation. We implement LACE as a stand-alone interface in TinyOS and incorporate it into both routing and flooding protocols. Simulation and testbed results show that LACE: (1) achieves more accurate and lightweight link correlation measurements than the state-of-the-art work; and (2) greatly improves the performance of protocols exploiting link correlation. PMID:25686314

  8. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  9. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  10. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  11. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  12. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  13. On the estimation of the volatility-growth link

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Launov, Andrey; Posch, Olaf; Wälde, Klaus

    It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modelled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications...... of this framework includes exogenous controls in this second variance equation. Our theoretical …ndings suggest that the absence of relevant explanatory variables in the variance equation leads to a biased and inconsistent estimate of the volatility-growth link. Our simulations show that this effect is large. Once...... the appropriate controls are included in the variance equation consistency is restored. In short, we suggest that the variance equation must include relevant control variables to estimate the volatility-growth link....

  14. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  15. Non-response bias in physical activity trend estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bauman Adrian

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increases in reported leisure time physical activity (PA and obesity have been observed in several countries. One hypothesis for these apparently contradictory trends is differential bias in estimates over time. The purpose of this short report is to examine the potential impact of changes in response rates over time on the prevalence of adequate PA in Canadian adults. Methods Participants were recruited in representative national telephone surveys of PA from 1995-2007. Differences in PA prevalence estimates between participants and those hard to reach were assessed using Student's t tests adjusted for multiple comparisons. Results The number of telephone calls required to reach and speak with someone in the household increased over time, as did the percentage of selected participants who initially refused during the first interview attempt. A higher prevalence of adequate PA was observed with 5-9 attempts to reach anyone in the household in 1999-2002, but this was not significant after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Conclusion No significant impact on PA trend estimates was observed due to differential non response rates. It is important for health policy makers to understand potential biases and how these may affect secular trends in all aspects of the energy balance equation.

  16. HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, H Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

    2017-02-03

    The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (Pyear (Pyears, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all

  17. Earth-Space Link Attenuation Estimation via Ground Radar Kdp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolen, Steven M.; Benjamin, Andrew L.; Chandrasekar, V.

    2003-01-01

    A method of predicting attenuation on microwave Earth/spacecraft communication links, over wide areas and under various atmospheric conditions, has been developed. In the area around the ground station locations, a nearly horizontally aimed polarimetric S-band ground radar measures the specific differential phase (Kdp) along the Earth-space path. The specific attenuation along a path of interest is then computed by use of a theoretical model of the relationship between the measured S-band specific differential phase and the specific attenuation at the frequency to be used on the communication link. The model includes effects of rain, wet ice, and other forms of precipitation. The attenuation on the path of interest is then computed by integrating the specific attenuation over the length of the path. This method can be used to determine statistics of signal degradation on Earth/spacecraft communication links. It can also be used to obtain real-time estimates of attenuation along multiple Earth/spacecraft links that are parts of a communication network operating within the radar coverage area, thereby enabling better management of the network through appropriate dynamic routing along the best combination of links.

  18. Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The United States Department of Agriculture classifies plant hardiness zones based on mean annual minimum temperatures over some past period (currently 1976–2005. Since temperatures are changing, these values may benefit from updating. I outline a multistep methodology involving imputation of missing station values, geostatistical interpolation, and time series smoothing to update a climate variable’s expected value compared to a climatology period and apply it to estimating annual minimum temperature change over the coterminous United States. I show using hindcast experiments that trend estimation gives more accurate predictions of minimum temperatures 1-2 years in advance compared to the previous 30 years’ mean alone. I find that annual minimum temperature increased roughly 2.5 times faster than mean temperature (~2.0 K versus ~0.8 K since 1970, and is already an average of 1.2  0.5 K (regionally up to ~2 K above the 1976–2005 mean, so that much of the country belongs to warmer hardiness zones compared to the current map. The methods developed may also be applied to estimate changes in other climate variables and geographic regions.

  19. Availability and Reliability of FSO Links Estimated from Visibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tatarko

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on estimation availability and reliability of FSO systems. Shortcut FSO means Free Space Optics. It is a system which allows optical transmission between two steady points. We can say that it is a last mile communication system. It is an optical communication system, but the propagation media is air. This solution of last mile does not require expensive optical fiber and establishing of connection is very simple. But there are some drawbacks which have a bad influence of quality of services and availability of the link. Number of phenomena in the atmosphere such as scattering, absorption and turbulence cause a large variation of receiving optical power and laser beam attenuation. The influence of absorption and turbulence can be significantly reduced by an appropriate design of FSO link. But the visibility has the main influence on quality of the optical transmission channel. Thus, in typical continental area where rain, snow or fog occurs is important to know their values. This article gives a description of device for measuring weather conditions and information about estimation of availability and reliability of FSO links in Slovakia.

  20. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  1. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  2. The Effect of Error in Item Parameter Estimates on the Test Response Function Method of Linking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskowitz, Gary S.; De Ayala, R. J.

    2001-01-01

    Studied the effect of item parameter estimation for computation of linking coefficients for the test response function (TRF) linking/equating method. Simulation results showed that linking was more accurate when there was less error in the parameter estimates, and that 15 or 25 common items provided better results than 5 common items under both…

  3. Estimating the Autocorrelated Error Model with Trended Data: Further Results,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-11-01

    Perhaps the most serious deficiency of OLS in the presence of autocorrelation is not inefficiency but bias in its estimated standard errors--a bias...k for all t has variance var(b) = o2/ Tk2 2This refutes Maeshiro’s (1976) conjecture that "an estimator utilizing relevant extraneous information

  4. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  5. Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

    2018-05-08

    In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

  6. Indirect child mortality estimation technique to identify trends of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: In sub-Saharan African countries, the chance of a child dying before the age of five years is high. The prob- ... of child birth and the age distribution of child mortal- ity11,12. ... value can be estimated from age-specific fertility rates.

  7. COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ESTIMATING CHEMICAL TOXICITY: PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Computer Support Systems for Estimating Chemical Toxicity: Present Capabilities and Future Trends A wide variety of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems exist currently to aid in the assessment of toxicity for environmental chemicals. T...

  8. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  9. Trend Estimation of Blood Glucose Level Fluctuations Based on Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Yamaguchi

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available We have fabricated calorie-calculating software that calculates and records the total calorific food intake by choosing a meal menu selected using a computer mouse. The purpose of this software was to simplify data collection throughout a person's normal life, even if they were inexperienced computer operators. Three portable commercial devices have also been prepared a blood glucose monitor, a metabolic rate monitor and a mobile-computer, and linked into the calorie-calculating software. Time-course changes of the blood glucose level, metabolic rate and food intake were measured using these devices during a 3 month period. Based on the data collected in this study we could predict blood glucose levels of the next morning (FBG by modeling using data mining. Although a large error rate was found for predicting the absolute value, conditions could be found that improved the accuracy of the predicting trends in blood glucose level fluctuations by up to 90 %. However, in order to further improve the accuracy of estimation it was necessary to obtain further details about the patients' life style or to optimise the input variables that were dependent on each patient rather than collecting data over longer periods.

  10. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  11. Feasibility of including fugitive PM-10 emissions estimates in the EPA emissions trends report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, W.; Carlson, P.

    1990-09-01

    The report describes the results of Part 2 of a two part study. Part 2 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing regional emission trends for PM-10. Part 1 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing VOC emission trends, on a regional and temporal basis. These studies are part of the effort underway to improve the national emission trends. Part 1 is presented in a separate report. The categories evaluated for the feasibility of developing regional emissions estimates were: unpaved roads, paved roads, wind erosion, agricultural tilling, construction activities, feedlots, burning, landfills, mining and quarrying unpaved parking lots, unpaved airstrips and storage piles

  12. Estimation of Species Identification Error: Implications for Raptor Migration Counts and Trend Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Hull; A.M. Fish; J.J. Keane; S.R. Mori; B.J Sacks; A.C. Hull

    2010-01-01

    One of the primary assumptions associated with many wildlife and population trend studies is that target species are correctly identified. This assumption may not always be valid, particularly for species similar in appearance to co-occurring species. We examined size overlap and identification error rates among Cooper's (Accipiter cooperii...

  13. Missed epidemics and missing links: international birth cohort trends in multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajdacic-Gross, V; Tschopp, A; Schmid, M; Bopp, M; Gutzwiller, F

    2013-03-01

    Many hypotheses on the etiopathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) focus on risk factors occurring early in life. This study examined the variability of birth cohort trends in international MS data by means of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The data from 25 countries were taken from the WHO mortality database. Data were encoded according to the International Classification of Diseases and covered slightly varying periods between 1951 and 2009. The APC analyses were based on logit models applied to cohort tables with 5-year age- and period intervals. In most countries, the birth cohort estimates peaked in those born in the first half of the 20th century. In countries from Central and Western Europe, the peak concerned those born before and around 1920. A second group of countries (Denmark, Sweden, Italy, Ireland, Scotland) shared a later peak amongst cohorts born in the 1920s and 1930s. Group 3 included Commonwealth countries, the USA and Norway, with a double or extended peak starting in the 1910s or 1920s, and ending by the 1950s. The fourth group, consisting of Mediterranean countries and Finland, was characterized by a steady increase in the birth cohort estimates until the 1950s. The fifth group with countries from Eastern Europe and Japan showed no particular pattern. Birth cohort trends have influenced the change in MS risk across the 20th century in many Western countries. This silent epidemic points to a most important but unknown latent risk factor in MS. © 2012 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2012 EFNS.

  14. DC Link Current Estimation in Wind-Double Feed Induction Generator Power Conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN GAICEANU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the implementation of the DC link current estimator in power conditioning system of the variable speed wind turbine is shown. The wind turbine is connected to double feed induction generator (DFIG. The variable electrical energy parameters delivered by DFIG are fitted with the electrical grid parameters through back-to-back power converter. The bidirectional AC-AC power converter covers a wide speed range from subsynchronous to supersynchronous speeds. The modern control of back-to-back power converter involves power balance concept, therefore its load power should be known in any instant. By using the power balance control, the DC link voltage variation at the load changes can be reduced. In this paper the load power is estimated from the dc link, indirectly, through a second order DC link current estimator. The load current estimator is based on the DC link voltage and on the dc link input current of the rotor side converter. This method presents certain advantages instead of using measured method, which requires a low pass filter: no time delay, the feedforward current component has no ripple, no additional hardware, and more fast control response. Through the numerical simulation the performances of the proposed DC link output current estimator scheme are demonstrated.

  15. National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blencowe, Hannah; Cousens, Simon; Jassir, Fiorella Bianchi

    2016-01-01

    ) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4-3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers...... estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. METHODS: We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web...

  16. Estimation of Nitrate Trends in the Groundwater of the Zagreb Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Kovač

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Nitrates present one of the main groundwater contaminants in the world and in the Zagreb aquifer. The Zagreb aquifer presents the main source of potable water for the inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and it is protected by the Republic of Croatia. The determination of contaminants trends presents one of the main tools in groundwater body status and risk assessment. In this paper, the use of regression analysis on the aggregated data, together with confidence and prediction intervals, at different observation scales has been evaluated. Nitrate concentrations are generally decreasing in almost all areas, observed at different observation scales. It has been shown that linear regression can be efficiently used in the estimation of nitrates trends. Results showed that the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals can provide more useful conclusions than the calculation of the trend’s statistical significance. Also, the results suggest that confidence and prediction intervals can be used in groundwater body chemical status and risk assessment, respectively. Data smoothing and data aggregation are generally desirable, but have certain limitations. If too much data is aggregated, trend estimation by regression analysis can point to false conclusions. Evaluation of trends at different observational scales can provide more realistic trend estimation, as well as more precise identification of areas where groundwater protection measures should be implemented.

  17. Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahgedanova, Maria; Lamakin, Mikhail

    2005-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 deg N and 80.6 deg N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1980s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high AOD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or

  18. Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric G. Nolte

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964, and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

  19. Statistical Methods and Sampling Design for Estimating Step Trends in Surface-Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Robert M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The J. L. Hodges-E. L. Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies is examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods.

  20. Trends in nuclear power plant capital-investment cost estimates - 1976 to 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

    1983-09-01

    This report describes trends in power plant capital investment cost estimates over the time period from 1976 to 1982. A review of economic parameters, inflation and escalation rates and cost of money, and a review of cost-size scaling relationships are included. Reference cost estimates are provided for light-water reactor and coal-fired electric power plants based on safety and environmental regulations in effect in January 1982. The sensitivity of the reference cost estimates to numerous economic parameters is analyzed

  1. MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blewitt, Geoffrey; Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

    2016-03-01

    Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj-xi)/(tj-ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

  2. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  3. Artificial Neural Network Algorithm for Condition Monitoring of DC-link Capacitors Based on Capacitance Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soliman, Hammam Abdelaal Hammam; Wang, Huai; Gadalla, Brwene Salah Abdelkarim

    2015-01-01

    challenges. A capacitance estimation method based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm is therefore proposed in this paper. The implemented ANN estimated the capacitance of the DC-link capacitor in a back-toback converter. Analysis of the error of the capacitance estimation is also given......In power electronic converters, reliability of DC-link capacitors is one of the critical issues. The estimation of their health status as an application of condition monitoring have been an attractive subject for industrial field and hence for the academic research filed as well. More reliable...... solutions are required to be adopted by the industry applications in which usage of extra hardware, increased cost, and low estimation accuracy are the main challenges. Therefore, development of new condition monitoring methods based on software solutions could be the new era that covers the aforementioned...

  4. Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

    2007-12-01

    Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

  5. Vision-based stress estimation model for steel frame structures with rigid links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hyo Seon; Park, Jun Su; Oh, Byung Kwan

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a stress estimation model for the safety evaluation of steel frame structures with rigid links using a vision-based monitoring system. In this model, the deformed shape of a structure under external loads is estimated via displacements measured by a motion capture system (MCS), which is a non-contact displacement measurement device. During the estimation of the deformed shape, the effective lengths of the rigid link ranges in the frame structure are identified. The radius of the curvature of the structural member to be monitored is calculated using the estimated deformed shape and is employed to estimate stress. Using MCS in the presented model, the safety of a structure can be assessed gauge-freely. In addition, because the stress is directly extracted from the radius of the curvature obtained from the measured deformed shape, information on the loadings and boundary conditions of the structure are not required. Furthermore, the model, which includes the identification of the effective lengths of the rigid links, can consider the influences of the stiffness of the connection and support on the deformation in the stress estimation. To verify the applicability of the presented model, static loading tests for a steel frame specimen were conducted. By comparing the stress estimated by the model with the measured stress, the validity of the model was confirmed.

  6. Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

    2012-12-01

    Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

  7. Estimates of phenotypic and genetic trends of growth traits in N ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... 0.18±0.06kg/yr and -0.005 ±0.003kglyr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. In contrast, all estimated genetic trends were relatively small and not significantly different from zero. They were 0.02±0.05kg/yr, 0.02±0.05kg/yr and 0.1g/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. The sequential polynomial fitting of ...

  8. Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

    2018-05-01

    A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

  9. Progress on Poverty? New Estimates of Historical Trends Using an Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimer, Christopher; Fox, Liana; Garfinkel, Irwin; Kaushal, Neeraj; Waldfogel, Jane

    2016-01-01

    This study examines historical trends in poverty using an anchored version of the U.S. Census Bureau’s recently developed Research Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimated back to 1967. Although the SPM is estimated each year using a quasi-relative poverty threshold that varies over time with changes in families’ expenditures on a core basket of goods and services, this study explores trends in poverty using an absolute, or anchored, SPM threshold. We believe the anchored measure offers two advantages. First, setting the threshold at the SPM’s 2012 levels and estimating it back to 1967, adjusted only for changes in prices, is more directly comparable to the approach taken in official poverty statistics. Second, it allows for a better accounting of the roles that social policy, the labor market, and changing demographics play in trends in poverty rates over time, given that changes in the threshold are held constant. Results indicate that unlike official statistics that have shown poverty rates to be fairly flat since the 1960s, poverty rates have dropped by 40 % when measured using a historical anchored SPM over the same period. Results obtained from comparing poverty rates using a pretax/pretransfer measure of resources versus a posttax/posttransfer measure of resources further show that government policies, not market incomes, are driving the declines observed over time. PMID:27352076

  10. Progress on Poverty? New Estimates of Historical Trends Using an Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimer, Christopher; Fox, Liana; Garfinkel, Irwin; Kaushal, Neeraj; Waldfogel, Jane

    2016-08-01

    This study examines historical trends in poverty using an anchored version of the U.S. Census Bureau's recently developed Research Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimated back to 1967. Although the SPM is estimated each year using a quasi-relative poverty threshold that varies over time with changes in families' expenditures on a core basket of goods and services, this study explores trends in poverty using an absolute, or anchored, SPM threshold. We believe the anchored measure offers two advantages. First, setting the threshold at the SPM's 2012 levels and estimating it back to 1967, adjusted only for changes in prices, is more directly comparable to the approach taken in official poverty statistics. Second, it allows for a better accounting of the roles that social policy, the labor market, and changing demographics play in trends in poverty rates over time, given that changes in the threshold are held constant. Results indicate that unlike official statistics that have shown poverty rates to be fairly flat since the 1960s, poverty rates have dropped by 40 % when measured using a historical anchored SPM over the same period. Results obtained from comparing poverty rates using a pretax/pretransfer measure of resources versus a post-tax/post-transfer measure of resources further show that government policies, not market incomes, are driving the declines observed over time.

  11. Link-state-estimation-based transmission power control in wireless body area networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seungku; Eom, Doo-Seop

    2014-07-01

    This paper presents a novel transmission power control protocol to extend the lifetime of sensor nodes and to increase the link reliability in wireless body area networks (WBANs). We first experimentally investigate the properties of the link states using the received signal strength indicator (RSSI). We then propose a practical transmission power control protocol based on both short- and long-term link-state estimations. Both the short- and long-term link-state estimations enable the transceiver to adapt the transmission power level and target the RSSI threshold range, respectively, to simultaneously satisfy the requirements of energy efficiency and link reliability. Finally, the performance of the proposed protocol is experimentally evaluated in two experimental scenarios-body posture change and dynamic body motion-and compared with the typical WBAN transmission power control protocols, a real-time reactive scheme, and a dynamic postural position inference mechanism. From the experimental results, it is found that the proposed protocol increases the lifetime of the sensor nodes by a maximum of 9.86% and enhances the link reliability by reducing the packet loss by a maximum of 3.02%.

  12. E-resource knowledge bases and link resolvers: an assessment of the current products and emerging trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marshall Breeding

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes the findings of a study on e-resource knowledge bases and OpenURL-based link resolvers sponsored by the National Library of Sweden. The project involved soliciting detailed information from each of the providers of the major products in this genre, reviewing product information available on the web and in published articles, and conducting a survey addressed to libraries using these products. The report identified and presented comparative information on a top tier of products that includes KnowledgeWorks and 360 Link from Serials Solutions; SFX Global KnowledgeBase and the SFX link resolver from Ex Libris; LinkSource and the EBSCO Integrated Knowledge Base from EBSCO and the WorldCat knowledge base from OCLC. A second tier included TOUResolver from TDNet, Gold Rush from the Colorado Alliance of Research Libraries and GODOT from Simon Fraser University. Innovative Interfaces, Inc offers the WebBridge link resolver but does not produce a knowledge base. The library survey revealed relatively narrow differences in the statistical results. Serial Solutions emerged as more favorable in most categories except for end-user functionality where Ex Libris received higher ratings. The Global Open Knowledgebase project (GOKb is noteworthy as a nascent community-based effort to produce a knowledge base. Key trends noted include less emphasis on knowledge bases and link resolvers as stand-alone products as they become integral components of comprehensive discovery and automation products.

  13. MIPAS ESA v7 carbon tetrachloride data: distribution, trend and atmospheric lifetime estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeri, M.; Barbara, F.; Boone, C. D.; Ceccherini, S.; Gai, M.; Maucher, G.; Raspollini, P.; Ridolfi, M.; Sgheri, L.; Wetzel, G.; Zoppetti, N.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a strong ozone-depleting atmospheric gas regulated by the Montreal protocol. Recently it received increasing interest due to the so called "mystery of CCl4": it was found that its atmospheric concentration at the surface declines with a rate significantly smaller than its lifetime-limited rate. Indeed there is a discrepancy between atmospheric observations and the estimated distribution based on the reported production and consumption. Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements are used to estimate CCl4 distributions, its trend, and atmospheric lifetime in the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In particular, here we use MIPAS product generated with Version 7 of the Level 2 algorithm operated by the European Space Agency. The CCl4 distribution shows features typical of long-lived species of anthropogenic origin: higher concentrations in the troposphere, decreasing with altitude due to the photolysis. We compare MIPAS CCl4 data with independent observations from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE - FTS) and stratospheric balloon version of MIPAS (MIPAS-B). The comparison shows a general good agreement between the different datasets. CCl4 trends are evaluated as a function of both latitude and altitude: negative trends (-10/ -15 pptv/decade, -10/ -30 %/decade) are found at all latitudes in the UTLS, apart from a region in the Southern mid-latitudes between 50 and 10 hPa where the trend is slightly positive (5/10 pptv/decade, 15/20 %/decade). At the lowest altitudes sounded by the MIPAS scan we find trend values consistent with those determined on the basis of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Earth System Research Laboratory / Halocarbons and other Atmospheric Trace Species (NOAA / ESRL / HATS) networks. CCl4 global average lifetime of 47(39 - 61) years has been

  14. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  15. Improving Google Flu Trends estimates for the United States through transformation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah J Martin

    Full Text Available Google Flu Trends (GFT uses Internet search queries in an effort to provide early warning of increases in influenza-like illness (ILI. In the United States, GFT estimates the percentage of physician visits related to ILI (%ILINet reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC. However, during the 2012-13 influenza season, GFT overestimated %ILINet by an appreciable amount and estimated the peak in incidence three weeks late. Using data from 2010-14, we investigated the relationship between GFT estimates (%GFT and %ILINet. Based on the relationship between the relative change in %GFT and the relative change in %ILINet, we transformed %GFT estimates to better correspond with %ILINet values. In 2010-13, our transformed %GFT estimates were within ± 10% of %ILINet values for 17 of the 29 weeks that %ILINet was above the seasonal baseline value determined by the CDC; in contrast, the original %GFT estimates were within ± 10% of %ILINet values for only two of these 29 weeks. Relative to the %ILINet peak in 2012-13, the peak in our transformed %GFT estimates was 2% lower and one week later, whereas the peak in the original %GFT estimates was 74% higher and three weeks later. The same transformation improved %GFT estimates using the recalibrated 2013 GFT model in early 2013-14. Our transformed %GFT estimates can be calculated approximately one week before %ILINet values are reported by the CDC and the transformation equation was stable over the time period investigated (2010-13. We anticipate our results will facilitate future use of GFT.

  16. Linked versus unlinked hospital discharge data on hip fractures for estimating incidence and comorbidity profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Trang; Day, Lesley; Finch, Caroline F

    2012-08-01

    Studies comparing internally linked (person-identifying) and unlinked (episodes of care) hospital discharge data (HDD) on hip fractures have mainly focused on incidence overestimation by unlinked HDD, but little is known about the impact of overestimation on patient profiles such as comorbidity estimates. In view of the continuing use of unlinked HDD in hip fracture research and the desire to apply research results to hip fracture prevention, we concurrently assessed the accuracy of both incidence and comorbidity estimates derived from unlinked HDD compared to those estimated from internally linked HDD. We analysed unlinked and internally linked HDD between 01 July 2005 and 30 June 2008, inclusive, from Victoria, Australia to estimate the incidence of hospital admission for fall-related hip fracture in community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years and determine the prevalence of comorbidity in patients. Community-dwelling status was defined as living in private residence, supported residential facilities or special accommodation but not in nursing homes. We defined internally linked HDD as the reference standard and calculated measures of accuracy of fall-related hip fracture incidence by unlinked HDD using standard definitions. The extent to which comorbidity prevalence estimates by unlinked HDD differed from those by the reference standard was assessed in absolute terms. The sensitivity and specificity of a standard approach for estimating fall-related hip fracture incidence using unlinked HDD (i.e. omitting records of in-hospital deaths, inter-hospital transfers and readmissions within 30 days of discharge) were 94.4% and 97.5%, respectively. The standard approach and its variants underestimated the prevalence of some comorbidities and altered their ranking. The use of more stringent selection criteria led to major improvements in all measures of accuracy as well as overall and specific comorbidity estimates. This study strongly supports the use of linked

  17. Integration and analysis of neighbor discovery and link quality estimation in wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Marjan; Dezfouli, Behnam; Abu Bakar, Kamalrulnizam; Abd Razak, Shukor

    2014-01-01

    Network connectivity and link quality information are the fundamental requirements of wireless sensor network protocols to perform their desired functionality. Most of the existing discovery protocols have only focused on the neighbor discovery problem, while a few number of them provide an integrated neighbor search and link estimation. As these protocols require a careful parameter adjustment before network deployment, they cannot provide scalable and accurate network initialization in large-scale dense wireless sensor networks with random topology. Furthermore, performance of these protocols has not entirely been evaluated yet. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive simulation study on the efficiency of employing adaptive protocols compared to the existing nonadaptive protocols for initializing sensor networks with random topology. In this regard, we propose adaptive network initialization protocols which integrate the initial neighbor discovery with link quality estimation process to initialize large-scale dense wireless sensor networks without requiring any parameter adjustment before network deployment. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to provide a detailed simulation study on the performance of integrated neighbor discovery and link quality estimation protocols for initializing sensor networks. This study can help system designers to determine the most appropriate approach for different applications.

  18. Integration and Analysis of Neighbor Discovery and Link Quality Estimation in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Radi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Network connectivity and link quality information are the fundamental requirements of wireless sensor network protocols to perform their desired functionality. Most of the existing discovery protocols have only focused on the neighbor discovery problem, while a few number of them provide an integrated neighbor search and link estimation. As these protocols require a careful parameter adjustment before network deployment, they cannot provide scalable and accurate network initialization in large-scale dense wireless sensor networks with random topology. Furthermore, performance of these protocols has not entirely been evaluated yet. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive simulation study on the efficiency of employing adaptive protocols compared to the existing nonadaptive protocols for initializing sensor networks with random topology. In this regard, we propose adaptive network initialization protocols which integrate the initial neighbor discovery with link quality estimation process to initialize large-scale dense wireless sensor networks without requiring any parameter adjustment before network deployment. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to provide a detailed simulation study on the performance of integrated neighbor discovery and link quality estimation protocols for initializing sensor networks. This study can help system designers to determine the most appropriate approach for different applications.

  19. A comparison of methods to estimate vertical land motion trends from GNSS and altimetry at tide gauge stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas

    2018-03-01

    Tide gauge (TG) records are affected by vertical land motion (VLM), causing them to observe relative instead of geocentric sea level. VLM can be estimated from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series, but only a few TGs are equipped with a GNSS receiver. Hence, (multiple) neighboring GNSS stations can be used to estimate VLM at the TG. This study compares eight approaches to estimate VLM trends at 570 TG stations using GNSS by taking into account all GNSS trends with an uncertainty smaller than 1 mm yr-1 within 50 km. The range between the methods is comparable with the formal uncertainties of the GNSS trends. Taking the median of the surrounding GNSS trends shows the best agreement with differenced altimetry-tide gauge (ALT-TG) trends. An attempt is also made to improve VLM trends from ALT-TG time series. Only using highly correlated along-track altimetry and TG time series reduces the SD of ALT-TG time series by up to 10 %. As a result, there are spatially coherent changes in the trends, but the reduction in the root mean square (RMS) of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends is insignificant. However, setting correlation thresholds also acts like a filter to remove problematic TG time series. This results in sets of ALT-TG VLM trends at 344-663 TG locations, depending on the correlation threshold. Compared to other studies, we decrease the RMS of differences between GNSS and ALT-TG trends (from 1.47 to 1.22 mm yr-1), while we increase the number of locations (from 109 to 155), Depending on the methods the mean of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends vary between 0.1 and 0.2 mm yr-1. We reduce the mean of the differences by taking into account the effect of elastic deformation due to present-day mass redistribution. At varying ALT-TG correlation thresholds, we provide new sets of trends for 759 to 939 different TG stations. If both GNSS and ALT-TG trend estimates are available, we recommend using the GNSS trend estimates because residual

  20. Linking TIMSS and NAEP Assessments to Evaluate International Trends in Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hwanggyu; Sireci, Stephen G.

    2017-01-01

    The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) makes it possible to compare the performance of students in the US in Mathematics and Science to the performance of students in other countries. TIMSS uses four international benchmarks for describing student achievement: Low, Intermediate, High, and Advanced. In this study, we…

  1. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  2. Trends in Healthcare Expenditures Among US Adults With Hypertension: National Estimates, 2003-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkland, Elizabeth B; Heincelman, Marc; Bishu, Kinfe G; Schumann, Samuel O; Schreiner, Andrew; Axon, R Neal; Mauldin, Patrick D; Moran, William P

    2018-05-30

    One in 3 US adults has high blood pressure, or hypertension. As prior projections suggest hypertension is the costliest of all cardiovascular diseases, it is important to define the current state of healthcare expenditures related to hypertension. We used a nationally representative database, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, to calculate the estimated annual healthcare expenditure for patients with hypertension and to measure trends in expenditure longitudinally over a 12-year period. A 2-part model was used to estimate adjusted incremental expenditures for individuals with hypertension versus those without hypertension. Sex, race/ethnicity, education, insurance status, census region, income, marital status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and year category were included as covariates. The 2003-2014 pooled data include a total sample of 224 920 adults, of whom 36.9% had hypertension. Unadjusted mean annual medical expenditure attributable to patients with hypertension was $9089. Relative to individuals without hypertension, individuals with hypertension had $1920 higher annual adjusted incremental expenditure, 2.5 times the inpatient cost, almost double the outpatient cost, and nearly triple the prescription medication expenditure. Based on the prevalence of hypertension in the United States, the estimated adjusted annual incremental cost is $131 billion per year higher for the hypertensive adult population compared with the nonhypertensive population. Individuals with hypertension are estimated to face nearly $2000 higher annual healthcare expenditure compared with their nonhypertensive peers. This trend has been relatively stable over 12 years. Healthcare costs associated with hypertension account for about $131 billion. This warrants intense effort toward hypertension prevention and management. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  3. Methodological Challenges in Estimating Trends and Burden of Cardiovascular Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob K. Kariuki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Although 80% of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD is in developing countries, the 2010 global burden of disease (GBD estimates have been cited to support a premise that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA is exempt from the CVD epidemic sweeping across developing countries. The widely publicized perspective influences research priorities and resource allocation at a time when secular trends indicate a rapid increase in prevalence of CVD in SSA by 2030. Purpose. To explore methodological challenges in estimating trends and burden of CVD in SSA via appraisal of the current CVD statistics and literature. Methods. This review was guided by the Critical review methodology described by Grant and Booth. The review traces the origins and evolution of GBD metrics and then explores the methodological limitations inherent in the current GBD statistics. Articles were included based on their conceptual contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the burden of CVD in SSA. Results/Conclusion. Cognizant of the methodological challenges discussed, we caution against extrapolation of the global burden of CVD statistics in a way that underrates the actual but uncertain impact of CVD in SSA. We conclude by making a case for optimal but cost-effective surveillance and prevention of CVD in SSA.

  4. Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

    2016-04-01

    origins. Our calculations indicate that about half of the median trends at EANET stations are significant, derived either for the entire observational period or for a given season, however not for the same species. The proportions of decreasing and increasing trends are comparable. The latter is the case for SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for Russia), while marked decrease in K+ abundances is prevailing at all stations. Most unsystematic trends are seen for nitrogenated compounds, particularly HNO3, which calls for deeper data quality analysis. Interestingly, about the same statistic (half of significant trends) is obtained for the upper (0.9) quantile of the dataset, suggesting that trends pertain to the upper part of the data distribution usually linked to emission dynamics (i.e. bearing winter/spring compositions). We further apply an ad hoc cluster analysis to infer spatial patterns and colocation of the trends across the East Asian region. Finally, we provide a brief comparison of results with an evaluation of changes in major acidic compounds over EMEP region for the 1990-2012 provided by EMEP in its trend assessment for the UN ECE CLRTAP earlier this year [2]. References: 1. EANET: Data Report 2014. Network Center for EANET (ACAP), November 2015, 314 p. (http://www.eanet.asia/product/datarep/datarep14/datarep14.pdf) 2. EMEP: Air Pollution Trends in the EMEP region between 1990 and 2012. WMO/EMEP TFMM Trend Assessment Report. UN ECE Convention on LRTAP, 2016, 54 p.

  5. Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

    2015-04-01

    European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also

  6. Virtual Sensor for Kinematic Estimation of Flexible Links in Parallel Robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengoa, Pablo; Zubizarreta, Asier; Cabanes, Itziar; Mancisidor, Aitziber; Pinto, Charles; Mata, Sara

    2017-08-23

    The control of flexible link parallel manipulators is still an open area of research, endpoint trajectory tracking being one of the main challenges in this type of robot. The flexibility and deformations of the limbs make the estimation of the Tool Centre Point (TCP) position a challenging one. Authors have proposed different approaches to estimate this deformation and deduce the location of the TCP. However, most of these approaches require expensive measurement systems or the use of high computational cost integration methods. This work presents a novel approach based on a virtual sensor which can not only precisely estimate the deformation of the flexible links in control applications (less than 2% error), but also its derivatives (less than 6% error in velocity and 13% error in acceleration) according to simulation results. The validity of the proposed Virtual Sensor is tested in a Delta Robot, where the position of the TCP is estimated based on the Virtual Sensor measurements with less than a 0.03% of error in comparison with the flexible approach developed in ADAMS Multibody Software.

  7. Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

    2018-02-01

    The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

  8. Estimating under-reporting of road crash injuries to police using multiple linked data collections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Angela; Watson, Barry; Vallmuur, Kirsten

    2015-10-01

    The reliance on police data for the counting of road crash injuries can be problematic, as it is well known that not all road crash injuries are reported to police which under-estimates the overall burden of road crash injuries. The aim of this study was to use multiple linked data sources to estimate the extent of under-reporting of road crash injuries to police in the Australian state of Queensland. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. The completeness of road crash cases reported to police was examined via discordance rates between the police data (QRCD) and the hospital data collections. In addition, the potential bias of this discordance (under-reporting) was assessed based on gender, age, road user group, and regional location. Results showed that the level of under-reporting varied depending on the data set with which the police data was compared. When all hospital data collections are examined together the estimated population of road crash injuries was approximately 28,000, with around two-thirds not linking to any record in the police data. The results also showed that the under-reporting was more likely for motorcyclists, cyclists, males, young people, and injuries occurring in Remote and Inner Regional areas. These results have important implications for road safety research and policy in terms of: prioritising funding and resources; targeting road safety interventions into areas of higher risk; and estimating the burden of road crash injuries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Alcohol affordability and alcohol demand: cross-country trends and panel data estimates, 1975 to 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jon P

    2014-04-01

    Relatively little is known about cross-country differences in alcohol affordability or factors that determine differences in affordability over time. This information is potentially important for alcohol policy, especially policies that focus on higher taxes or prices to reduce total alcohol consumption. This study estimates cross-country alcohol consumption relationships using economic models incorporating income and prices and alternative models based on alcohol affordability. The data and analysis are restricted to higher income countries. Data for alcohol consumption per capita (ages 15+) are analyzed for 2 samples: first, 17 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 1975 to 2000; second, 22 countries in the European Union for the period from 2000 to 2008. Panel data models are utilized, with country and time fixed-effects to control for confounding influences. In economic demand models, covariates are real per capita income and real alcohol price indices. In affordability models, income is divided by prices to yield an index of alcohol affordability. Analysis of data trends reveals that much of the increase in affordability is due to rising real incomes, and not falling real prices. Economic models of demand perform slightly better statistically, but differences are not substantial as income and affordability are highly correlated. For both samples, exogenous rates of growth of alcohol consumption are negative. Price and income elasticities, on average, are within the range of prior estimates. Affordability elasticities are between 0.21 and 0.25. Although alcohol affordability is a valid concept statistically, its use in policy discussions tends to hide underlying causes of changes in affordability. A better approach is a comparison and analysis of trends and cross-country differences in real incomes and real alcohol prices together with the affordability index. Country-level analysis of income and price

  10. ArrayExpress update--trends in database growth and links to data analysis tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustici, Gabriella; Kolesnikov, Nikolay; Brandizi, Marco; Burdett, Tony; Dylag, Miroslaw; Emam, Ibrahim; Farne, Anna; Hastings, Emma; Ison, Jon; Keays, Maria; Kurbatova, Natalja; Malone, James; Mani, Roby; Mupo, Annalisa; Pedro Pereira, Rui; Pilicheva, Ekaterina; Rung, Johan; Sharma, Anjan; Tang, Y Amy; Ternent, Tobias; Tikhonov, Andrew; Welter, Danielle; Williams, Eleanor; Brazma, Alvis; Parkinson, Helen; Sarkans, Ugis

    2013-01-01

    The ArrayExpress Archive of Functional Genomics Data (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/arrayexpress) is one of three international functional genomics public data repositories, alongside the Gene Expression Omnibus at NCBI and the DDBJ Omics Archive, supporting peer-reviewed publications. It accepts data generated by sequencing or array-based technologies and currently contains data from almost a million assays, from over 30 000 experiments. The proportion of sequencing-based submissions has grown significantly over the last 2 years and has reached, in 2012, 15% of all new data. All data are available from ArrayExpress in MAGE-TAB format, which allows robust linking to data analysis and visualization tools, including Bioconductor and GenomeSpace. Additionally, R objects, for microarray data, and binary alignment format files, for sequencing data, have been generated for a significant proportion of ArrayExpress data.

  11. On the plausibility of socioeconomic mortality estimates derived from linked data: a demographic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerch, Mathias; Spoerri, Adrian; Jasilionis, Domantas; Viciana Fernandèz, Francisco

    2017-07-14

    Reliable estimates of mortality according to socioeconomic status play a crucial role in informing the policy debate about social inequality, social cohesion, and exclusion as well as about the reform of pension systems. Linked mortality data have become a gold standard for monitoring socioeconomic differentials in survival. Several approaches have been proposed to assess the quality of the linkage, in order to avoid the misclassification of deaths according to socioeconomic status. However, the plausibility of mortality estimates has never been scrutinized from a demographic perspective, and the potential problems with the quality of the data on the at-risk populations have been overlooked. Using indirect demographic estimation (i.e., the synthetic extinct generation method), we analyze the plausibility of old-age mortality estimates according to educational attainment in four European data contexts with different quality issues: deterministic and probabilistic linkage of deaths, as well as differences in the methodology of the collection of educational data. We evaluate whether the at-risk population according to educational attainment is misclassified and/or misestimated, correct these biases, and estimate the education-specific linkage rates of deaths. The results confirm a good linkage of death records within different educational strata, even when probabilistic matching is used. The main biases in mortality estimates concern the classification and estimation of the person-years of exposure according to educational attainment. Changes in the census questions about educational attainment led to inconsistent information over time, which misclassified the at-risk population. Sample censuses also misestimated the at-risk populations according to educational attainment. The synthetic extinct generation method can be recommended for quality assessments of linked data because it is capable not only of quantifying linkage precision, but also of tracking problems in

  12. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Galletti Vernazzani

    Full Text Available Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May. Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004-2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004-2012, open population models estimate that ~570-760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638-933 and 570 (95% CI 475-705 for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small.

  13. Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott C; Christopher, Jack T; Frederiks, Troy M; Chenu, Karine

    2015-06-01

    Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957-2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

  14. [The accuracy of the causes of death and the estimated trend: the case of cervix uteri].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, Pamela; Sacchettini, Claudio; Vicentini, Massimo; Caroli, Stefania; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    reduction in cervical cancer mortality is the ultimate goal of the screening. Quality of death certificate reports has been improved over time, but they are still inaccurate, making it difficult to assess time trends in mortality. to evaluate the accuracy of the topographic coding of causes of death and to estimate the mortality time trend for cervical cancer through the method of incidence-based mortality (IBM) using cancer registry (CR) data. from the mortality registry (MR), we extracted data on deaths for cervix uteri cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and uterus cancer not otherwise specified (NOS) referred to residents in Reggio Emilia (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy) from 1997 to 2013. Deaths were checked with the CR to verify the topographical site of the primary tumour. Furthermore, by using CR data, we constructed a cohort of incident cervical cancer cases diagnosed between 1997 and 2009 with a 5-year follow-up. We calculated cause-specific IBM (excluding ovary) and IBM for all cause, crude and standardized, and annual percentage change (APC). out of 369 deaths for uterine cancer, 269 were reported in the RT: 32 for cervix uteri cancer, 76 for corpus uteri cancer, 161 for uterus cancer NOS. 28 of the 32 persons who died for cervical cancer were incidents for cervix uteri cancer. 63 of the 76 who died for corpus uteri cancer were incidents for corpus uteri cancer. Of the 161 who died of uterus cancer NOS, 80 were incidents for corpus uteri cancer, 45 for cervix uteri cancer, 28 for uterus cancer NOS, 5 for vagina cancer, and 3 for cancer of other non-specified organs. Applying these proportions of misclassification, we can estimate that the real number of cervical cancer deaths is 2.4 folds the number of cases reported in the MR as cervical cancer. IBM for all causes decreased significantly over the years (APC: -9.5; 95%CI -17.1;-1.1); cause-specific IBM decreases, but not significantly (APC: -5.1; 95%IC -16.1;+7.3). There is no improvement in survival (r

  15. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  16. Using Linked Electronic Health Records to Estimate Healthcare Costs: Key Challenges and Opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asaria, Miqdad; Grasic, Katja; Walker, Simon

    2016-02-01

    This paper discusses key challenges and opportunities that arise when using linked electronic health records (EHR) in health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), with a particular focus on estimating healthcare costs. These challenges and opportunities are framed in the context of a case study modelling the costs of stable coronary artery disease in England. The challenges and opportunities discussed fall broadly into the categories of (1) handling and organising data of this size and sensitivity; (2) extracting clinical endpoints from datasets that have not been designed and collected with such endpoints in mind; and (3) the principles and practice of costing resource use from routinely collected data. We find that there are a number of new challenges and opportunities that arise when working with EHR compared with more traditional sources of data for HEOR. These call for greater clinician involvement and intelligent use of sensitivity analysis.

  17. Reducing bias in rainfall estimates from microwave links by considering variable drop size distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fencl, Martin; Jörg, Rieckermann; Vojtěch, Bareš

    2015-04-01

    Commercial microwave links (MWL) are point-to-point radio systems which are used in backhaul networks of cellular operators. For several years, they have been suggested as rainfall sensors complementary to rain gauges and weather radars, because, first, they operate at frequencies where rain drops represent significant source of attenuation and, second, cellular networks almost completely cover urban and rural areas. Usually, path-average rain rates along a MWL are retrieved from the rain-induced attenuation of received MWL signals with a simple model based on a power law relationship. The model is often parameterized based on the characteristics of a particular MWL, such as frequency, polarization and the drop size distribution (DSD) along the MWL. As information on the DSD is usually not available in operational conditions, the model parameters are usually considered constant. Unfortunately, this introduces bias into rainfall estimates from MWL. In this investigation, we propose a generic method to eliminate this bias in MWL rainfall estimates. Specifically, we search for attenuation statistics which makes it possible to classify rain events into distinct groups for which same power-law parameters can be used. The theoretical attenuation used in the analysis is calculated from DSD data using T-Matrix method. We test the validity of our approach on observations from a dedicated field experiment in Dübendorf (CH) with a 1.85-km long commercial dual-polarized microwave link transmitting at a frequency of 38 GHz, an autonomous network of 5 optical distrometers and 3 rain gauges distributed along the path of the MWL. The data is recorded at a high temporal resolution of up to 30s. It is further tested on data from an experimental catchment in Prague (CZ), where 14 MWLs, operating at 26, 32 and 38 GHz frequencies, and reference rainfall from three RGs is recorded every minute. Our results suggest that, for our purpose, rain events can be nicely characterized based on

  18. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  19. On the use of a regression model for trend estimates from ground-based atmospheric observations in the Southern hemisphere

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bencherif, H

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The present reports on the use of a multi-regression model adapted at Reunion University for temperature and ozone trend estimates. Depending on the location of the observing site, the studied geophysical signal is broken down in form of a sum...

  20. Estimation of transfused red cell survival using an enzyme-linked antiglobulin test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kickler, T.S.; Smith, B.; Bell, W.; Drew, H.; Baldwin, M.; Ness, P.M.

    1985-01-01

    An enzyme-linked antiglobulin test (ELAT) method was developed to estimate survival of transfused red cells. This procedure is based on a principle analogous to that of the Ashby technique were antigenically distinct red cells are transfused and their survival studied. The authors compared the ELAT survival to the 51 Chromium method ( 51 Cr) in four patients. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias showed T 1/2 by ELAT of 17.5, 18, and 17 days versus 18.5, 20, and 19 days by the 51 Cr method. A fourth patient with traumatic cardiac hemolysis had two studies performed. In this case, the ELAT showed a T 1/2 of 10 and 8.1 days while 51 Cr T 1/2 values were 11 and 10.5 days. The ELAT method for measuring red cell survival yielded data which agreed closely with the results of the 51 Cr method. Although 51 Cr is the accepted method for red cell survival, the ELAT method can be used to estimate transfused red cell survival

  1. Capacitance Estimation for DC-link Capacitors in a Back-to-Back Converter Based on Artificial Neural Network Algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soliman, Hammam Abdelaal Hammam; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    of the aforementioned challenges and shortcomings. In this paper, a pure software condition monitoring method based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm is proposed. The implemented ANN estimates the capacitance of the dc-link capacitor in a back-to-back converter. The error analysis of the estimated results......The reliability of dc-link capacitors in power electronic converters is one of the critical aspects to be considered in modern power converter design. The observation of their ageing process and the estimation of their health status have been an attractive subject for the industrial field and hence...

  2. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  3. Estimating structure quality trends in the Protein Data Bank by equivalent resolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagaria, Anurag; Jaravine, Victor; Güntert, Peter

    2013-10-01

    The quality of protein structures obtained by different experimental and ab-initio calculation methods varies considerably. The methods have been evolving over time by improving both experimental designs and computational techniques, and since the primary aim of these developments is the procurement of reliable and high-quality data, better techniques resulted on average in an evolution toward higher quality structures in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Each method leaves a specific quantitative and qualitative "trace" in the PDB entry. Certain information relevant to one method (e.g. dynamics for NMR) may be lacking for another method. Furthermore, some standard measures of quality for one method cannot be calculated for other experimental methods, e.g. crystal resolution or NMR bundle RMSD. Consequently, structures are classified in the PDB by the method used. Here we introduce a method to estimate a measure of equivalent X-ray resolution (e-resolution), expressed in units of Å, to assess the quality of any type of monomeric, single-chain protein structure, irrespective of the experimental structure determination method. We showed and compared the trends in the quality of structures in the Protein Data Bank over the last two decades for five different experimental techniques, excluding theoretical structure predictions. We observed that as new methods are introduced, they undergo a rapid method development evolution: within several years the e-resolution score becomes similar for structures obtained from the five methods and they improve from initially poor performance to acceptable quality, comparable with previously established methods, the performance of which is essentially stable. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Poly-drug trafficking: Estimating the scale, trends and harms at the Australian border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Caitlin Elizabeth; Chalmers, Jenny; Bright, David Anthony; McFadden, Michael

    2016-05-01

    International drug law enforcement agencies have identified an apparent rise in high level drug traffickers choosing to deal in multiple different drugs. It is hypothesised that this may be a "deliberate modus operandi" and that the formation of "portfolios of trades" may make such traffickers more profitable, harmful and resilient to changes in drug supply and policing. In this paper we provide the first exploration of the extent, nature and harms of poly-drug trafficking at Australian borders. Two different methods were used. First, we used Australian Federal Police (AFP) data on all commercial level seizures at the Australian border from 1999 to 2012 to identify the proportion of seizures that were poly-drug and trends over time. Second, we used unit-record data on a sub-set of 20 drug trafficking cases and linked-cases (defined as the original drug trafficking case and all other criminal cases that were connected via common offenders and/or suspects) to compare the profiles of poly-drug and mono-drug traffickers, including: the total weight and type of drug seized, the value of assets seized, and the level of involvement in other crime (such as money laundering and corruption). Between 5% and 35% of commercial importations at the Australian border involved poly-drug trafficking. Poly-drug trafficking occurred in almost every year of analysis (1999-2012), but it increased only slightly over time. Compared to mono-drug traffickers poly-drug traffickers were characterised by: larger quantities of drugs seized, larger networks, longer criminal histories and more involvement in other types of serious crime. Some fears about poly-drug traffickers may have been overstated particularly about the inherent escalation of this form of trafficking. Nevertheless, this suggests poly-drug traffickers are likely to pose added risks to governments and law enforcement than mono-drug traffickers. They may necessitate different types of policy responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  5. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  6. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  7. Cost Estimating in DoD: Current Status, Trends, and What the Future Holds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nussbaum, Daniel A

    2005-01-01

    (1) Current Status: Baseline analysis of current cost estimating community, including which organizations are responsible for developing and reviewing cost estimates, how many personnel there are, what...

  8. Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Wan

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with two problems, methods of foF2 trend determination and origin of trends in foF2, both being controversial in current literature. We found that various regression-based methods and artificial neural network-based method of Yue et al. (2006 provided comparable results within uncertainties caused mainly by various ways of removing/suppressing the dominant solar cycle effect. The role of geomagnetic activity in the observed trends in foF2 was probably substantial and might be still even rather dominant in the last quarter of the 20th century.

  9. Eliminating bias in rainfall estimates from microwave links due to antenna wetting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fencl, Martin; Rieckermann, Jörg; Bareš, Vojtěch

    2014-05-01

    Commercial microwave links (MWLs) are point-to-point radio systems which are widely used in telecommunication systems. They operate at frequencies where the transmitted power is mainly disturbed by precipitation. Thus, signal attenuation from MWLs can be used to estimate path-averaged rain rates, which is conceptually very promising, since MWLs cover about 20 % of surface area. Unfortunately, MWL rainfall estimates are often positively biased due to additional attenuation caused by antenna wetting. To correct MWL observations a posteriori to reduce the wet antenna effect (WAE), both empirically and physically based models have been suggested. However, it is challenging to calibrate these models, because the wet antenna attenuation depends both on the MWL properties (frequency, type of antennas, shielding etc.) and different climatic factors (temperature, due point, wind velocity and direction, etc.). Instead, it seems straight forward to keep antennas dry by shielding them. In this investigation we compare the effectiveness of antenna shielding to model-based corrections to reduce the WAE. The experimental setup, located in Dübendorf-Switzerland, consisted of 1.85-km long commercial dual-polarization microwave link at 38 GHz and 5 optical disdrometers. The MWL was operated without shielding in the period from March to October 2011 and with shielding from October 2011 to July 2012. This unique experimental design made it possible to identify the attenuation due to antenna wetting, which can be computed as the difference between the measured and theoretical attenuation. The theoretical path-averaged attenuation was calculated from the path-averaged drop size distribution. During the unshielded periods, the total bias caused by WAE was 0.74 dB, which was reduced by shielding to 0.39 dB for the horizontal polarization (vertical: reduction from 0.96 dB to 0.44 dB). Interestingly, the model-based correction (Schleiss et al. 2013) was more effective because it reduced

  10. Artificial Neural Network based DC-link Capacitance Estimation in a Diode-bridge Front-end Inverter System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soliman, Hammam Abdelaal Hammam; Abdelsalam, Ibrahim; Wang, Huai

    2017-01-01

    , a proposed software condition monitoring methodology based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm is presented. Matlab software is used to train and generate the proposed ANN. The proposed methodology estimates the capacitance of the DC-link capacitor in a three phase front-end diode bridge AC......In modern design of power electronic converters, reliability of DC-link capacitors is an essential aspect to be considered. The industrial field have been attracted to the monitoring of their health condition and the estimation of their ageing process status. The existing condition monitoring...

  11. Candidaemia and antifungal therapy in a French University Hospital: rough trends over a decade and possible links

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Standaert Annie

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence for an increased prevalence of candidaemia and for high associated mortality in the 1990s led to a number of different recommendations concerning the management of at risk patients as well as an increase in the availability and prescription of new antifungal agents. The aim of this study was to parallel in our hospital candidemia incidence with the nature of prescribed antifungal drugs between 1993 and 2003. Methods During this 10-year period we reviewed all cases of candidemia, and collected all the data about annual consumption of prescribed antifungal drugs Results Our centralised clinical mycology laboratory isolates and identifies all yeasts grown from blood cultures obtained from a 3300 bed teaching hospital. Between 1993 and 2003, 430 blood yeast isolates were identified. Examination of the trends in isolation revealed a clear decrease in number of yeast isolates recovered between 1995–2000, whereas the number of positive blood cultures in 2003 rose to 1993 levels. The relative prevalence of Candida albicans and C. glabrata was similar in 1993 and 2003 in contrast to the period 1995–2000 where an increased prevalence of C. glabrata was observed. When these quantitative and qualitative data were compared to the amount and type of antifungal agents prescribed during the same period (annual mean defined daily dose: 2662741; annual mean cost: 615629 € a single correlation was found between the decrease in number of yeast isolates, the increased prevalence of C. glabrata and the high level of prescription of fluconazole at prophylactic doses between 1995–2000. Conclusion Between 1993 and 2000, the number of cases of candidemia halved, with an increase of C. glabrata prevalence. These findings were probably linked to the use of Fluconazole prophylaxis. Although it is not possible to make any recommendations from this data the information is nevertheless interesting and may have considerable implications with

  12. Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara L Crewe

    Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

  13. Linking field observations, Landsat and MODIS data to estimate agricultural change in European Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Beurs, K. M.; Ioffe, G.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural reform has been one of the most important anthropogenic change processes in European Russia that has been unfolding since the formal collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. Widespread land abandonment is perhaps the most vivid side effect of the reform, even visible in synoptic imagery. Currently, Russia is transitioning into a country with an internal "archipelago" of islands of productive agriculture around cities embedded in a matrix of unproductive, abandoned lands. This heterogeneous spatial pattern is mainly driven by depopulation of the least favorable parts of the countryside, where "least favorable" is a function of fertility, remoteness, and their interaction. In this work we provide a satellite, GIS and field based overview of the current agricultural developments in Russia and look beyond the unstable period immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. We apply Landsat images in one of Russia's oblasts to create a detailed land cover map. We then use a logistic model to link the Landsat land cover map with the inter-annual variability in key phenological parameters calculated from MODIS to derive the percent of cropland per 500m MODIS pixel. By evaluating the phenological characteristics of the MODIS curves for each year we determine whether a pixel was actually cropped or left fallow. A comparison of satellite-estimated cropped areas with regional statistics (by rayon) revealed that the satellite estimates are highly correlated with the regional statistics for both arable lands and successfully cropped areas. We use the crop maps to determine the number of times a particular area was cropped between 2002 and 2009 by summing all the years with crops per pixel. This variable provides a good indication about the intensification and de-intensification of the Russian croplands over the last decade. We have visited several rural areas in Russia and we link the satellite data with information acquired through field interviews

  14. CCl4 distribution derived from MIPAS ESA v7 data: intercomparisons, trend, and lifetime estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeri, Massimo; Barbara, Flavio; Boone, Chris; Ceccherini, Simone; Gai, Marco; Maucher, Guido; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco; Sgheri, Luca; Wetzel, Gerald; Zoppetti, Nicola

    2017-08-01

    Atmospheric emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) are regulated by the Montreal Protocol due to its role as a strong ozone-depleting substance. The molecule has been the subject of recent increased interest as a consequence of the so-called mystery of CCl4, the discrepancy between atmospheric observations and reported production and consumption. Surface measurements of CCl4 atmospheric concentrations have declined at a rate almost 3 times lower than its lifetime-limited rate, suggesting persistent atmospheric emissions despite the ban. In this paper, we study CCl4 vertical and zonal distributions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (including the photolytic loss region, 70-20 hPa), its trend, and its stratospheric lifetime using measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which operated onboard the ENVISAT satellite from 2002 to 2012. Specifically, we use the MIPAS data product generated with Version 7 of the Level 2 algorithm operated by the European Space Agency.The CCl4 zonal means show features typical of long-lived species of anthropogenic origin that are destroyed primarily in the stratosphere, with larger quantities in the troposphere and a monotonic decrease with increasing altitude in the stratosphere. MIPAS CCl4 measurements have been compared with independent measurements from other satellite and balloon-borne remote sounders, showing a good agreement between the different datasets.CCl4 trends are calculated as a function of both latitude and altitude. Negative trends of about text">-10 to -15 pptv decade-1 (-10 to -30 % decade-1) are found at all latitudes in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere region, apart from a region in the southern midlatitudes between 50 and 10 hPa where the trend is positive with values around 5-10 pptv decade-1 (15-20 % decade-1). At the lowest altitudes sounded by MIPAS, we find trends consistent with those determined on the basis of long-term ground

  15. Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

    2014-11-01

    National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

  16. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions estimated for South Africa during 2000-2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masekoameng, K.E.; Leaner, J.; Dabrowski, J. [CSIR, Pretoria (South Africa)

    2010-08-15

    Recent studies suggest an increase in mercury (Hg) emissions to the global environment, particularly as a result of anthropogenic activities. This has prompted many countries to complete Hg emission inventories, based on country-specific Hg sources. In this study, information on annual coal consumption and Hg-containing commodities produced in South Africa, was used to estimate Hg emissions during 2000-2006. Based on the information, the UNEP toolkit was used to estimate the amount of Hg released to air and general waste from each activity; using South Africa specific and toolkit based emission factors. In both atmospheric and solid waste releases, coal-fired power plants were estimated to be the largest contributors of Hg emissions, viz. 27.1 to 38.9 tonnes y{sup -1} in air, and 5.8 to 7.4 tonnes y{sup -1} in waste. Cement production was estimated to be the second largest atmospheric Hg emission contributor (2.2-3.9 tonnes y{sup -1}), while coal gasification was estimated to be the second largest Hg contributor in terms of general waste releases (2.9-4.2 tonnes y{sup -1}). Overall, there was an increase in total atmospheric Hg emissions from all activities, estimated at ca. 34 tonnes in 2000, to 50 tonnes in 2006, with some fluctuations between the years. Similarly, the total Hg emissions released to general waste was estimated to be 9 tonnes in 2000, with an increase to 12 tonnes in 2006.

  17. An approximate multitrait model for genetic evaluation in dairy cattle with a robust estimation of genetic trends (Open Access publication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madsen Per

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In a stochastic simulation study of a dairy cattle population three multitrait models for estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values were compared. The first model was an approximate multitrait model using a two-step procedure. The first step was a single trait model for all traits. The solutions for fixed effects from these analyses were subtracted from the phenotypes. A multitrait model only containing an overall mean, an additive genetic and a residual term was applied on these preadjusted data. The second model was similar to the first model, but the multitrait model also contained a year effect. The third model was a full multitrait model. Genetic trends for total merit and for the individual traits in the breeding goal were compared for the three scenarios to rank the models. The full multitrait model gave the highest genetic response, but was not significantly better than the approximate multitrait model including a year effect. The inclusion of a year effect into the second step of the approximate multitrait model significantly improved the genetic trend for total merit. In this study, estimation of genetic parameters for breeding value estimation using models corresponding to the ones used for prediction of breeding values increased the accuracy on the breeding values and thereby the genetic progress.

  18. Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Yue, X.; Wan, W.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 3 (2008), s. 593-598 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Grant - others:COST(XE) 296; National Science Foundation of China(CN) 40636032; National Science Foundation of China(CN) 40574071; National important Basic Research Project(CN) 2006CB806306 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : ionosphere * long-term trends * geomagnetism and paleomagnetism * Radio Science Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.660, year: 2008 http://www.ann-geophys.net/26/593/2008/

  19. Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic trends for weight and body measurements at birth in sheep populations in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    China Supakorn

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and genetic trends for birth weight (BW,heart girth (HG, and body length (BL at birth of sheep populations in Thailand. Data were collected during 1998 to 2011 fromfour livestock research and testing stations. Fixed effect testing showed that sex, herd, contemporary group and breed groupgreatly influenced on the investigated traits (P<0.05. The log likelihood ratio test showed that all traits significantly affectedby maternal additive genetic effect as well as covariance between animal effects. Estimated direct heritabilities from multivariate analysis of the model for BW, HG and BL were 0.32, 0.52 and 0.54, while estimated maternal heritabilities were 0.23,0.14 and 0.14, respectively. Positive correlations were found among direct additive genetic (0.29 to 0.97, maternal additivegenetic (0.23 to 0.95, and phenotype (0.18 to 0.96. Direct-maternal correlations within traits (-0.68 for BW, -0.92 for HG and-0.89 for BL and between traits (-0.89 to -0.08 were antagonistic effect. Direct additive genetic trends for BW, HG and BL inthe second period (2005 to 2011 were significantly increased (0.02 kg/year, 0.89 and 0.73 cm/year while maternal additivegenetic trends characteristically depicted significantly decreased (-0.01 kg/year, -0.92 and -0.72 cm/year.

  20. On H∞ Fault Estimator Design for Linear Discrete Time-Varying Systems under Unreliable Communication Link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueyang Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the H∞ fixed-lag fault estimator design for linear discrete time-varying (LDTV systems with intermittent measurements, which is described by a Bernoulli distributed random variable. Through constructing a novel partially equivalent dynamic system, the fault estimator design is converted into a deterministic quadratic minimization problem. By applying the innovation reorganization technique and the projection formula in Krein space, a necessary and sufficient condition is obtained for the existence of the estimator. The parameter matrices of the estimator are derived by recursively solving two standard Riccati equations. An illustrative example is provided to show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed algorithm.

  1. Statistical modelling and RCS detrending methods provide similar estimates of long-term trend in radial growth of common beech in north-eastern France

    OpenAIRE

    Bontemps , Jean-Daniel; Esper , Jan

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Dendrochronological methods have greatly contributed to the documentation of past long-term trends in forest growth. These methods primarily focus on the high-frequency signals of tree ring chronologies. They require the removal of the ageing trend in tree growth, known as 'standardisation' or 'detrending', as a prerequisite to the estimation of such trends. Because the approach is sequential, it may however absorb part of the low-frequency historical signal. In this s...

  2. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  3. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions estimated for South Africa during 2000-2006

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Masekoameng, KE

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available and general waste from each activity; using South Africa specific and toolkit based emission factors. In both atmospheric and solid waste releases, coal-fired power plants were estimated to be the largest contributors of Hg emissions, viz. 27.1 to 38.9 tonnes...

  4. Performance emulation and parameter estimation for nonlinear fibre-optic links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piels, Molly; Porto da Silva, Edson; Zibar, Darko

    2016-01-01

    Fibre-optic communication systems, especially when operating in the nonlinear regime, generally do not perform exactly as theory would predict. A number of methods for data-based evaluation of nonlinear fibre-optic link parameters, both for accurate performance emulation and optimization...

  5. Exploring Alternative Characteristic Curve Approaches to Linking Parameter Estimates from the Generalized Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James S.; Bao, Han; Huang, Chun-Wei; Gagne, Phill

    Characteristic curve approaches for linking parameters from the generalized partial credit model were examined for cases in which common (anchor) items are calibrated separately in two groups. Three of these approaches are simple extensions of the test characteristic curve (TCC), item characteristic curve (ICC), and operating characteristic curve…

  6. Estimation of Spatial Trends in LAI in Heterogeneous Semi-arid Ecosystems using Full Waveform Lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, N. F.; Ilangakoon, N.; Spaete, L.; Dashti, H.

    2017-12-01

    Leaf area index (LAI) is a key structural trait that is defined by the plant functional type (PFT) and controlled by prevailing climate- and human-driven ecosystem stresses. Estimates of LAI using remote sensing techniques are limited by the uncertainties of vegetation inter and intra-gap fraction estimates; this is especially the case in sparse, low stature vegetated ecosystems. Small footprint full waveform lidar digitizes the total amount of return energy with the direction information as a near continuous waveform at a high vertical resolution (1 ns). Thus waveform lidar provides additional data matrices to capture vegetation gaps as well as PFTs that can be used to constrain the uncertainties of LAI estimates. In this study, we calculated a radiometrically calibrated full waveform parameter called backscatter cross section, along with other data matrices from the waveform to estimate vegetation gaps across plots (10 m x 10 m) in a semi-arid ecosystem in the western US. The LAI was then estimated using empirical relationships with directional gap fraction. Full waveform-derived gap fraction based LAI showed a high correlation with field observed shrub LAI (R2 = 0.66, RMSE = 0.24) compared to discrete return lidar based LAI (R2 = 0.01, RMSE = 0.5). The data matrices derived from full waveform lidar classified a number of deciduous and evergreen tree species, shrub species, and bare ground with an overall accuracy of 89% at 10 m. A similar analysis was performed at 1m with overall accuracy of 80%. The next step is to use these relationships to map the PFTs LAI at 10 m spatial scale across the larger study regions. The results show the exciting potential of full waveform lidar to identify plant functional types and LAI in low-stature vegetation dominated semi-arid ecosystems, an ecosystem in which many other remote sensing techniques fail. These results can be used to assess ecosystem state, habitat suitability as well as to constrain model uncertainties in

  7. Estimating decades-long trends in petroleum field energy return on investment (EROI) with an engineering-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vinay S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates changes in the energy return on investment (EROI) for five large petroleum fields over time using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE). The modeled fields include Cantarell (Mexico), Forties (U.K.), Midway-Sunset (U.S.), Prudhoe Bay (U.S.), and Wilmington (U.S.). Data on field properties and production/processing parameters were obtained from a combination of government and technical literature sources. Key areas of uncertainty include details of the oil and gas surface processing schemes. We aim to explore how long-term trends in depletion at major petroleum fields change the effective energetic productivity of petroleum extraction. Four EROI ratios are estimated for each field as follows: The net energy ratio (NER) and external energy ratio (EER) are calculated, each using two measures of energy outputs, (1) oil-only and (2) all energy outputs. In all cases, engineering estimates of inputs are used rather than expenditure-based estimates (including off-site indirect energy use and embodied energy). All fields display significant declines in NER over the modeling period driven by a combination of (1) reduced petroleum production and (2) increased energy expenditures on recovery methods such as the injection of water, steam, or gas. The fields studied had NER reductions ranging from 46% to 88% over the modeling periods (accounting for all energy outputs). The reasons for declines in EROI differ by field. Midway-Sunset experienced a 5-fold increase in steam injected per barrel of oil produced. In contrast, Prudhoe Bay has experienced nearly a 30-fold increase in amount of gas processed and reinjected per unit of oil produced. In contrast, EER estimates are subject to greater variability and uncertainty due to the relatively small magnitude of external energy investments in most cases. PMID:28178318

  8. Estimating decades-long trends in petroleum field energy return on investment (EROI) with an engineering-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vinay S; Brandt, Adam R

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates changes in the energy return on investment (EROI) for five large petroleum fields over time using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE). The modeled fields include Cantarell (Mexico), Forties (U.K.), Midway-Sunset (U.S.), Prudhoe Bay (U.S.), and Wilmington (U.S.). Data on field properties and production/processing parameters were obtained from a combination of government and technical literature sources. Key areas of uncertainty include details of the oil and gas surface processing schemes. We aim to explore how long-term trends in depletion at major petroleum fields change the effective energetic productivity of petroleum extraction. Four EROI ratios are estimated for each field as follows: The net energy ratio (NER) and external energy ratio (EER) are calculated, each using two measures of energy outputs, (1) oil-only and (2) all energy outputs. In all cases, engineering estimates of inputs are used rather than expenditure-based estimates (including off-site indirect energy use and embodied energy). All fields display significant declines in NER over the modeling period driven by a combination of (1) reduced petroleum production and (2) increased energy expenditures on recovery methods such as the injection of water, steam, or gas. The fields studied had NER reductions ranging from 46% to 88% over the modeling periods (accounting for all energy outputs). The reasons for declines in EROI differ by field. Midway-Sunset experienced a 5-fold increase in steam injected per barrel of oil produced. In contrast, Prudhoe Bay has experienced nearly a 30-fold increase in amount of gas processed and reinjected per unit of oil produced. In contrast, EER estimates are subject to greater variability and uncertainty due to the relatively small magnitude of external energy investments in most cases.

  9. Estimating decades-long trends in petroleum field energy return on investment (EROI with an engineering-based model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay S Tripathi

    Full Text Available This paper estimates changes in the energy return on investment (EROI for five large petroleum fields over time using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE. The modeled fields include Cantarell (Mexico, Forties (U.K., Midway-Sunset (U.S., Prudhoe Bay (U.S., and Wilmington (U.S.. Data on field properties and production/processing parameters were obtained from a combination of government and technical literature sources. Key areas of uncertainty include details of the oil and gas surface processing schemes. We aim to explore how long-term trends in depletion at major petroleum fields change the effective energetic productivity of petroleum extraction. Four EROI ratios are estimated for each field as follows: The net energy ratio (NER and external energy ratio (EER are calculated, each using two measures of energy outputs, (1 oil-only and (2 all energy outputs. In all cases, engineering estimates of inputs are used rather than expenditure-based estimates (including off-site indirect energy use and embodied energy. All fields display significant declines in NER over the modeling period driven by a combination of (1 reduced petroleum production and (2 increased energy expenditures on recovery methods such as the injection of water, steam, or gas. The fields studied had NER reductions ranging from 46% to 88% over the modeling periods (accounting for all energy outputs. The reasons for declines in EROI differ by field. Midway-Sunset experienced a 5-fold increase in steam injected per barrel of oil produced. In contrast, Prudhoe Bay has experienced nearly a 30-fold increase in amount of gas processed and reinjected per unit of oil produced. In contrast, EER estimates are subject to greater variability and uncertainty due to the relatively small magnitude of external energy investments in most cases.

  10. An adaptive spatio-temporal smoothing model for estimating trends and step changes in disease risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rushworth, Alastair; Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease\\ud risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known\\ud covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a proxy\\ud for unmeasured spatial confounding, whose spatial structure is often characterised by\\ud a spatially smooth evolution between some pairs of adjacent areal units while other\\ud pairs exhibit large step changes. This spatial heterogeneity is not c...

  11. Projection-based circular constrained state estimation and fusion over long-haul links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Qiang [ORNL; Rao, Nageswara S. [ORNL

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we consider a scenario where sensors are deployed over a large geographical area for tracking a target with circular nonlinear constraints on its motion dynamics. The sensor state estimates are sent over long-haul networks to a remote fusion center for fusion. We are interested in different ways to incorporate the constraints into the estimation and fusion process in the presence of communication loss. In particular, we consider closed-form projection-based solutions, including rules for fusing the estimates and for incorporating the constraints, which jointly can guarantee timely fusion often required in realtime systems. We test the performance of these methods in the long-haul tracking environment using a simple example.

  12. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  13. Pay-load Estimation of a 2 DOF Flexible Link Robot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Ravn, Ole

    2005-01-01

    . Although the applied principle might be general in nature, the pa-per is applied to the well-known problem of identifying a pay-load of a moving flexible robot. This problem is almost impossible to solve by measurements, so an estimation technique must be applied. The presented method benefits from...

  14. Trends in pregnancies and pregnancy rates by outcome: estimates for the United States, 1976-96.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, S J; Mosher, W D; Curtin, S C; Abma, J C; Henshaw, S

    2000-01-01

    This report presents national estimates of pregnancies and pregnancy rates according to women's age, race, and Hispanic origin, and by marital status, race, and Hispanic origin. Data are presented for 1976-96. Data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) are used to show information on sexual activity, contraceptive practices, and infertility, as well as women's reports of pregnancy intentions. Tables of pregnancy rates and the factors affecting pregnancy rates are presented and interpreted. Birth data are from the birth-registration system for all births registered in the United States and reported by State health departments to NCHS; abortion data are from The Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI) and the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); and fetal loss data are from pregnancy history information collected in the NSFG. In 1996 an estimated 6.24 million pregnancies resulted in 3.89 million live births, 1.37 million induced abortions, and 0.98 million fetal losses. The pregnancy rate in 1996 was 104.7 pregnancies per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, 9 percent lower than in 1990 (115.6), and the lowest recorded since 1976 (102.7). Since 1990 rates have dropped 8 percent for live births, 16 percent for induced abortions, and 4 percent for fetal losses. The teenage pregnancy rate has declined considerably in the 1990's, falling 15 percent from its 1991 high of 116.5 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 years to 98.7 in 1996. Among the factors accounting for this decline are decreased sexual activity, increases in condom use, and the adoption of the injectable and implant contraceptives.

  15. Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

    2015-01-01

    To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to

  16. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  17. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  18. Current economic situation and estimated future trends of the electricity generation options in Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvoye, J.

    1996-01-01

    In Belgium, the electrical engineers have to periodically establish, for the government, a national equipment plan which justifies the provided investments for a period of 10 years after the publication of the plan. The elaborated development is appreciated by four criteria: the environmental impact, the park workableness, its economic robustness and the production saving. In order to estimate this last criteria, the method used is called of the 'leveled discounted electricity generation costs'. It is recommended and used by international agencies such as the IAEA, OECD, UNIPE. The comparisons between the nuclear production cost, carried out during two successive equipment plans (1988 and 1994), show the evolution of technologies, costs and forecasts of these last ten years. In particular, the last valuation has to take into account uncertainty ranges of which the importance prevents to draw a definitive conclusion about the production mean which will be the most inexpensive in the future: competition is open between the different types of factories and fuels. The recent national equipment plan (1995-2005) proposes to cover 53% of the additional needs by gas combined-cycle power plants, 29% by coal combined-cycle power plants and 18% by the Belgian interest in French B. Chooz nuclear powered plants. The nuclear choice is open for the future. (O.M.)

  19. Detecting Trends in Wetland Extent from MODIS Derived Soil Moisture Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gumbricht

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A soil wetness index for optical satellite images, the Transformed Wetness Index (TWI is defined and evaluated against ground sampled soil moisture. Conceptually, TWI is formulated as a non-linear normalized difference index from orthogonalized vectors representing soil and water conditions, with the vegetation signal removed. Compared to 745 ground sites with in situ measured soil moisture, TWI has a globally estimated Random Mean Square Error of 14.0 (v/v expressed as percentage, which reduces to 8.5 for unbiased data. The temporal variation in soil moisture is significantly captured at 4 out of 10 stations, but also fails for 2 to 3 out of 10 stations. TWI is biased by different soil mineral compositions, dense vegetation and shadows, with the latter two most likely also causing the failure of TWI to capture soil moisture dynamics. Compared to soil moisture products from microwave brightness temperature data, TWI performs slightly worse, but has the advantages of not requiring ancillary data, higher spatial resolution and a relatively simple application. TWI has been used for wetland and peatland mapping in previously published studies but is presented in detail in this article, and then applied for detecting changes in soil moisture for selected tropical regions between 2001 and 2016. Sites with significant changes are compared to a published map of global tropical wetlands and peatlands.

  20. Linking soil type and rainfall characteristics towards estimation of surface evaporative capacitance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, D.; Bickel, S.; Lehmann, P.

    2017-12-01

    Separation of evapotranspiration (ET) to evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) components for attribution of surface fluxes or for assessment of isotope fractionation in groundwater remains a challenge. Regional estimates of soil evaporation often rely on plant-based (Penman-Monteith) ET estimates where is E is obtained as a residual or a fraction of potential evaporation. We propose a novel method for estimating E from soil-specific properties, regional rainfall characteristics and considering concurrent internal drainage that shelters soil water from evaporation. A soil-dependent evaporative characteristic length defines a depth below which soil water cannot be pulled to the surface by capillarity; this depth determines the maximal soil evaporative capacitance (SEC). The SEC is recharged by rainfall and subsequently emptied by competition between drainage and surface evaporation (considering canopy interception evaporation). We show that E is strongly dependent on rainfall characteristics (mean annual, number of storms) and soil textural type, with up to 50% of rainfall lost to evaporation in loamy soil. The SEC concept applied to different soil types and climatic regions offers direct bounds on regional surface evaporation independent of plant-based parameterization or energy balance calculations.

  1. Ultrasensitivity in signaling cascades revisited: Linking local and global ultrasensitivity estimations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Altszyler

    Full Text Available Ultrasensitive response motifs, capable of converting graded stimuli into binary responses, are well-conserved in signal transduction networks. Although it has been shown that a cascade arrangement of multiple ultrasensitive modules can enhance the system's ultrasensitivity, how a given combination of layers affects a cascade's ultrasensitivity remains an open question for the general case. Here, we introduce a methodology that allows us to determine the presence of sequestration effects and to quantify the relative contribution of each module to the overall cascade's ultrasensitivity. The proposed analysis framework provides a natural link between global and local ultrasensitivity descriptors and it is particularly well-suited to characterize and understand mathematical models used to study real biological systems. As a case study, we have considered three mathematical models introduced by O'Shaughnessy et al. to study a tunable synthetic MAPK cascade, and we show how our methodology can help modelers better understand alternative models.

  2. Trends in summer chemistry linked to productivity in lakes recovering from acid deposition in the Adirondack region of New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momen, B.; Lawrence, G.B.; Nierzwicki-Bauer, S. A.; Sutherland, J.W.; Eichler, L.W.; Harrison, J.P.; Boylen, C.W.

    2006-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency established the Adirondack Effects Assessment Program (AEAP) to evaluate and monitor the status of biological communities in lakes in the Adirondack region of New York that have been adversely affected by acid deposition. This program includes chemical analysis of 30 lakes, sampled two to three times each summer. Results of trends analysis for lake chemistry and chlorophyll a (chlor a) are presented for 1994 to 2003, and a general comparison is made with recent results of the Adirondack Long-Term Monitoring (ALTM) Program, which included chemical analysis of all but two of these lakes (plus an additional 24 lakes) monthly, year-round for 1992-2004. Increases in pH were found in 25 of the 30 AEAP lakes (P level of P level of P level of P level of P level of P chemistry were similar to those of the ALTM Program, although decreases in SO 42- concentrations were more evident in the year-round ALTM record. Overall, the results suggest (a) a degree of chemical recovery from acidification during the summer, (b) an increase in phytoplankton productivity, and (c) a decreasing trend in NO 3- concentrations resulting from the increased productivity. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

  3. Estimated costs and admissible claims linked to the Prestige oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loureiro, Maria L.; Ribas, Alfonso; Ojea, Elena; Lopez, Edelmiro

    2006-01-01

    The current case study presents an evaluation of the societal costs caused by the Prestige oil spill. We conclude that the economic magnitude of the catastrophe caused by the Prestige oil spill is rather significant. Short-term losses in all affected economic sectors, cleaning and recovery costs, and all environmental losses accountable at this point, add to a lower bound estimate of 770.58 million euro (prices in 2001 currency), excluding all other financial and future possible losses. Such important losses justify future studies that assess potential costs and benefits derived from the application of preventive measures and other contingency plans. (author)

  4. Estimation of Bimodal Urban Link Travel Time Distribution and Its Applications in Traffic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuxiong Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicles travelling on urban streets are heavily influenced by traffic signal controls, pedestrian crossings, and conflicting traffic from cross streets, which would result in bimodal travel time distributions, with one mode corresponding to travels without delays and the other travels with delays. A hierarchical Bayesian bimodal travel time model is proposed to capture the interrupted nature of urban traffic flows. The travel time distributions obtained from the proposed model are then considered to analyze traffic operations and estimate travel time distribution in real time. The advantage of the proposed bimodal model is demonstrated using empirical data, and the results are encouraging.

  5. Stigma management? The links between enacted stigma and teen pregnancy trends among gay, lesbian, and bisexual students in British Columbia

    OpenAIRE

    Saewyc, Elizabeth M.; Poon, Colleen S.; Homma, Yuko; Skay, Carol L.

    2008-01-01

    Over the past decade, several large-scale school-based studies of adolescents in Canada and the U.S. have documented health disparities for lesbian, gay and bisexual teens compared to their heterosexual peers, such as higher rates of suicide attempts, homelessness, and substance use. Many of these disparities have been linked to “enacted stigma,” or the higher rates of harassment, discrimination, and sexual or physical violence that sexual minority youth experience at home, at school, and in ...

  6. Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-09-15

    An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann–Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

  7. Single Tree Vegetation Depth Estimation Tool for Satellite Services Link Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Hasirci

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Attenuation caused by tree shadowing is an important factor for describing the propagation channel of satellite services. Thus, vegetation effects should be determined by experimental studies or empirical formulations. In this study, tree types in the Black Sea Region of Turkey are classified based on their geometrical shapes into four groups such as conic, ellipsoid, spherical and hemispherical. The variations of the vegetation depth according to different tree shapes are calculated with ray tracing method. It is showed that different geometrical shapes have different vegetation depths even if they have same foliage volume for different elevation angles. The proposed method is validated with the related literature in terms of average single tree attenuation. On the other hand, due to decrease system requirements (speed, memory usage etc. of ray tracing method, an artificial neural network is proposed as an alternative. A graphical user interface is created for the above processes in MATLAB environment named vegetation depth estimation tool (VdET.

  8. Income Trends of Residential PV Adopters: An analysis of household-level income estimates [PowerPoint presentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen L.; Darghouth, Naim R.; Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2018-04-09

    The residential photovoltaic (PV) market has expanded rapidly over the past decade, but questions exist about how equitably that growth has occurred across income groups. Prior studies have investigated this question but are often limited by narrow geographic study regions, now-dated analysis timeframes, or coarse estimates of PV-adopter incomes. At the same time, a spate of new programs and initiatives, as well as innovations in business models and product design, have emerged in recent years with the aim of making solar more accessible and affordable to broader segments of the population. Yet, many of those efforts are proceeding without robust underlying information about the income characteristics of recent residential PV adopters. This work aims to establish basic factual information about income trends among U.S. residential solar adopters, with some emphasis on low- and moderate-income (LMI) households. The analysis is unique in its relatively extensive coverage of the U.S. solar market, relying on Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset, which contains project-level data for the vast majority of all residential PV systems in the country (a subset of which are ultimately included in the analysis sample). This analysis is also unique in its use of household-level income estimates that provide a more-precise characterization of PV-adopter incomes than in most prior studies.

  9. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

    2008-09-01

    The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

  10. Linking functional response and bioenergetics to estimate juvenile salmon growth in a reservoir food web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskell, Craig A.; Beauchamp, David A.; Bollens, Stephen M.

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) use of reservoir food webs is understudied. We examined the feeding behavior of subyearling Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and its relation to growth by estimating the functional response of juvenile salmon to changes in the density of Daphnia, an important component of reservoir food webs. We then estimated salmon growth across a broad range of water temperatures and daily rations of two primary prey, Daphnia and juvenile American shad (Alosa sapidissima) using a bioenergetics model. Laboratory feeding experiments yielded a Type-II functional response curve: C = 29.858 P *(4.271 + P)-1 indicating that salmon consumption (C) of Daphnia was not affected until Daphnia densities (P) were < 30 · L-1. Past field studies documented Daphnia densities in lower Columbia River reservoirs of < 3 · L-1 in July but as high as 40 · L-1 in August. Bioenergetics modeling indicated that subyearlings could not achieve positive growth above 22°C regardless of prey type or consumption rate. When feeding on Daphnia, subyearlings could not achieve positive growth above 20°C (water temperatures they commonly encounter in the lower Columbia River during summer). At 16–18°C, subyearlings had to consume about 27,000 Daphnia · day-1 to achieve positive growth. However, when feeding on juvenile American shad, subyearlings had to consume 20 shad · day-1 at 16–18°C, or at least 25 shad · day-1 at 20°C to achieve positive growth. Using empirical consumption rates and water temperatures from summer 2013, subyearlings exhibited negative growth during July (-0.23 to -0.29 g · d-1) and August (-0.05 to -0.07 g · d-1). By switching prey from Daphnia to juvenile shad which have a higher energy density, subyearlings can partially compensate for the effects of higher water temperatures they experience in the lower Columbia River during summer. However, achieving positive growth as piscivores requires subyearlings to feed at

  11. South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasanna, V.

    2016-06-01

    The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

  12. A Tri-National program for estimating the link between snow resources and hydrological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zappa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate how summer low flows and droughts are affected by the winter snowpack, a Tri-National effort will analyse data from three catchments: Alpbach (Prealps, central Switzerland, Gudjaretis-Tskali (Little Caucasus, central Georgia, and Kamenice (Jizera Mountains, northern Czech Republic. Two GIS-based rainfall-runoff models will simulate over 10 years of runoff in streams based on rain and snowfall measurements, and further meteorological variables. The models use information on the geographical settings of the catchments together with knowledge of the hydrological processes of runoff generation from rainfall, looking particularly at the relationship between spring snowmelt and summer droughts. These processes include snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge in spring that contributes to (the summer runoff, and will be studied by means of the environmental isotopes 18O and 2H. Knowledge about the isotopic composition of the different water sources will allow to identify the flow paths and estimate the residence time of snow meltwater in the subsurface and its contribution to the stream. The application of the models in different nested or neighbouring catchments will explore their potential for further development and allow a better early prediction of low-flow periods in various mountainous zones across Europe. The paper presents the planned activities including a first analysis of already available dataset of environmental isotopes, discharge, snow water equivalent and modelling experiments of the (already available datasets.

  13. An Accurate Computational Tool for Performance Estimation of FSO Communication Links over Weak to Strong Atmospheric Turbulent Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore D. Katsilieris

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The terrestrial optical wireless communication links have attracted significant research and commercial worldwide interest over the last few years due to the fact that they offer very high and secure data rate transmission with relatively low installation and operational costs, and without need of licensing. However, since the propagation path of the information signal, i.e., the laser beam, is the atmosphere, their effectivity affects the atmospheric conditions strongly in the specific area. Thus, system performance depends significantly on the rain, the fog, the hail, the atmospheric turbulence, etc. Due to the influence of these effects, it is necessary to study, theoretically and numerically, very carefully before the installation of such a communication system. In this work, we present exactly and accurately approximate mathematical expressions for the estimation of the average capacity and the outage probability performance metrics, as functions of the link’s parameters, the transmitted power, the attenuation due to the fog, the ambient noise and the atmospheric turbulence phenomenon. The latter causes the scintillation effect, which results in random and fast fluctuations of the irradiance at the receiver’s end. These fluctuations can be studied accurately with statistical methods. Thus, in this work, we use either the lognormal or the gamma–gamma distribution for weak or moderate to strong turbulence conditions, respectively. Moreover, using the derived mathematical expressions, we design, accomplish and present a computational tool for the estimation of these systems’ performances, while also taking into account the parameter of the link and the atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, in order to increase the accuracy of the presented tool, for the cases where the obtained analytical mathematical expressions are complex, the performance results are verified with the numerical estimation of the appropriate integrals. Finally, using

  14. Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-à-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME increased by 54.3% (61.5 to 94.9 ×109 kg annually from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR was noted for goat (2.0%, followed by buffalo (1.57% and swine (1.53%. Global EME is projected to increase to 120×109 kg by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3% between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%, followed by buffalo (1.55%, swine (1.28%, sheep (1.25% and cattle (0.70%. In India, total EME was projected to grow by 18.8×109 kg in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM increased from 6.81 ×109 kg in 1961 to 11.4×109 kg in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%, and is projected to grow to 15×109 kg by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from 0.52×109 kg to 1.1×109 kg (with an AGR of 1.57% in this period, which could increase to 1.54×109 kg in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be 21.4×106 kg in 2050 from 15.3×106 kg in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11% from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23% for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%, swine (9.57% and sheep (7.40%, and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%, buffalo (13.7% and goat (5.4%. The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010 than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach 3,520×109 kg CO2-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

  15. Variations in the Gender Ratio of Multiple Sclerosis Linked to Converging Smoking Trends in Men and Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacios, Natalia; Alonso, Alvaro; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    -dependent relationship exists between changing female-to male ratios of smoking and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in worldwide birth cohorts from previously published studies. BACKGROUND: Smoking behavior in industrialized nations has changed dramatically over the second half of the 20th century, with diverging patterns...... in male and female smoking rates. During the same time period, an increase in the female to male ratio in MS incidence has been reported. We examined whether MS incidence in the two genders changed concomitantly with smoking, as would be expected if smoking truly increased MS risk. DESIGN/METHODS: We...... identified relevant studies reporting male and female age-specific incidence of MS throughout the world using within-country birth cohorts as units of observation. For each country and birth cohort, we then estimated the male to female ratio in MS incidence, and correlated these ratios with the corresponding...

  16. Estimation of Outage Capacity for Free Space Optical Links Over I-K and K Turbulent Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Marinos

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The free space optical communication systems are attracting great research and commercial interest due to their capability of transferring data, over short distances, with high rate and security, low cost demands and without licensing fees. However, their performance depends strongly on the atmospheric conditions in the link’s area. In this work, we investigate the influence of the turbulence on the outage capacity of such a system for weak to strong turbulence channels modeled by the I-K and the K-distribution and we derive closed-form expressions for its estimation. Finally, using these expressions we present numerical results for various link cases with different turbulence conditions.

  17. National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2009 with trends since 1995: a systematic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousens, Simon; Blencowe, Hannah; Stanton, Cynthia; Chou, Doris; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Steinhardt, Laura; Creanga, Andreea A; Tunçalp, Ozge; Balsara, Zohra Patel; Gupta, Shivam; Say, Lale; Lawn, Joy E

    2011-04-16

    stillbirths occurred in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. This study draws attention to the dearth of reliable data in regions where most stillbirths occur. The estimated trend in stillbirth rate reduction is slower than that for maternal mortality and lags behind the increasing progress in reducing deaths in children younger than 5 years. Improved data and improved use of data are crucial to ensure that stillbirths count in global and national policy. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth, Saving Newborn Lives/Save the Children, and the International Stillbirth Alliance. The Department of Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, through the UN Development Programme, UN Population Fund, WHO, and World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A study on temporal trends and estimates of fate of Bisphenol A in agricultural soils after sewage sludge amendment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zulin, E-mail: zulin.zhang@hutton.ac.uk [The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Le Velly, Morgane [The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Robert Gordon University, Institute for Innovation Design and Sustainability (IDEAS), Riverside East, Garthdee, Aberdeen AB10 7GJ (United Kingdom); Rhind, Stewart M.; Kyle, Carol E.; Hough, Rupert L. [The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Duff, Elizabeth I. [Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); McKenzie, Craig [Robert Gordon University, Institute for Innovation Design and Sustainability (IDEAS), Riverside East, Garthdee, Aberdeen AB10 7GJ (United Kingdom)

    2015-05-15

    Temporal concentration trends of BPA in soils were investigated following sewage sludge application to pasture (study 1: short term sludge application; study 2: long term multiple applications over 13 years). The background levels of BPA in control soils were similar, ranging between 0.67–10.57 ng g{sup −1} (mean: 3.02 ng g{sup −1}) and 0.51–6.58 ng g{sup −1} (mean: 3.22 ng g{sup −1}) for studies 1 and 2, respectively. Concentrations in both treated and control plots increased over the earlier sampling times of the study to a maximum and then decreased over later sampling times, suggesting other sources of BPA to both the treated and control soils over the study period. In study 1 there was a significant treatment effect of sludge application in the autumn (p = 0.002) although no significant difference was observed between treatment and control soils in the spring. In study 2 treated soils contained considerably higher BPA concentrations than controls ranging between 12.89–167.9 ng g{sup −1} (mean: 63.15 ng g{sup −1}). This and earlier studies indicate the long-term accumulation of multiple contaminants by multiple sewage sludge applications over a prolonged period although the effects of the presence of such contaminant mixtures have not yet been elucidated. Fugacity modelling was undertaken to estimate partitioning of Bisphenol A (soil plus sewage: pore water: soil air partitioning) and potential uptake into a range of food crops. While Bisphenol A sorbs strongly to the sewage-amended soil, 4% by mass was predicted to enter soil pore water resulting in significant uptake by crops particularly leafy vegetables (3.12–75.5 ng g{sup −1}), but also for root crops (1.28–31.0 ng g{sup −1}) with much lower uptake into cereal grains (0.62–15.0 ng g{sup −1}). This work forms part of a larger programme of research aimed at assessing the risks associated with the long-term application of sewage sludge to agricultural soils. - Highlights:

  19. Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.; Attanasi, E.D.

    2012-01-01

    The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast-northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).

  20. Capacitance estimation algorithm based on DC-link voltage harmonics using artificial neural network in three-phase motor drive systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soliman, Hammam Abdelaal Hammam; Davari, Pooya; Wang, Huai

    2017-01-01

    to industry. In this digest, a condition monitoring methodology that estimates the capacitance value of the dc-link capacitor in a three phase Front-End diode bridge motor drive is proposed. The proposed software methodology is based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm. The harmonics of the dc......-link voltage are used as training data to the Artificial Neural Network. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the dc-link voltage is analysed in order to study the impact of capacitance variation on the harmonics order. Laboratory experiments are conducted to validate the proposed methodology and the error analysis......In modern design of power electronic converters, reliability of dc-link capacitors is one of the critical considered aspects. The industrial field have been attracted to the monitoring of their health condition and the estimation of their ageing process status. However, the existing condition...

  1. Linking soil moisture balance and source-responsive models to estimate diffuse and preferential components of groundwater recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, M.O.; Mackay, R.; Nimmo, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Results are presented of a detailed study into the vadose zone and shallow water table hydrodynamics of a field site in Shropshire, UK. A conceptual model is developed and tested using a range of numerical models, including a modified soil moisture balance model (SMBM) for estimating groundwater recharge in the presence of both diffuse and preferential flow components. Tensiometry reveals that the loamy sand topsoil wets up via macropore flow and subsequent redistribution of moisture into the soil matrix. Recharge does not occur until near-positive pressures are achieved at the top of the sandy glaciofluvial outwash material that underlies the topsoil, about 1 m above the water table. Once this occurs, very rapid water table rises follow. This threshold behaviour is attributed to the vertical discontinuity in the macropore system due to seasonal ploughing of the topsoil, and a lower permeability plough/iron pan restricting matrix flow between the topsoil and the lower outwash deposits. Although the wetting process in the topsoil is complex, a SMBM is shown to be effective in predicting the initiation of preferential flow from the base of the topsoil into the lower outwash horizon. The rapidity of the response at the water table and a water table rise during the summer period while flow gradients in the unsaturated profile were upward suggest that preferential flow is also occurring within the outwash deposits below the topsoil. A variation of the source-responsive model proposed by Nimmo (2010) is shown to reproduce the observed water table dynamics well in the lower outwash horizon when linked to a SMBM that quantifies the potential recharge from the topsoil. The results reveal new insights into preferential flow processes in cultivated soils and provide a useful and practical approach to accounting for preferential flow in studies of groundwater recharge estimation.

  2. Linking soil moisture balance and source-responsive models to estimate diffuse and preferential components of groundwater recharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. O. Cuthbert

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Results are presented of a detailed study into the vadose zone and shallow water table hydrodynamics of a field site in Shropshire, UK. A conceptual model is presented and tested using a range of numerical models, including a modified soil moisture balance model (SMBM for estimating groundwater recharge in the presence of both diffuse and preferential flow components. Tensiometry reveals that the loamy sand topsoil wets up via preferential flow and subsequent redistribution of moisture into the soil matrix. Recharge does not occur until near-positive pressures are achieved at the top of the sandy glaciofluvial outwash material that underlies the topsoil, about 1 m above the water table. Once this occurs, very rapid water table rises follow. This threshold behaviour is attributed to the vertical discontinuity in preferential flow pathways due to seasonal ploughing of the topsoil and to a lower permeability plough/iron pan restricting matrix flow between the topsoil and the lower outwash deposits. Although the wetting process in the topsoil is complex, a SMBM is shown to be effective in predicting the initiation of preferential flow from the base of the topsoil into the lower outwash horizon. The rapidity of the response at the water table and a water table rise during the summer period while flow gradients in the unsaturated profile were upward suggest that preferential flow is also occurring within the outwash deposits below the topsoil. A variation of the source-responsive model proposed by Nimmo (2010 is shown to reproduce the observed water table dynamics well in the lower outwash horizon when linked to a SMBM that quantifies the potential recharge from the topsoil. The results reveal new insights into preferential flow processes in cultivated soils and provide a useful and practical approach to accounting for preferential flow in studies of groundwater recharge estimation.

  3. Trends, causes and timing of 30-day readmissions after hospitalization for heart failure: 11-year population-based analysis with linked data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Gasso, Lucía; Hernando-Arizaleta, Lauro; Palomar-Rodríguez, Joaquín A; Abellán-Pérez, M Victoria; Pascual-Figal, Domingo A

    2017-12-01

    Reliable data are necessary if the burden of early readmissions following hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is to be addressed. We studied unplanned 30-day readmissions, their causes and timing over an 11-year period, using population-based linked data. All hospitalizations from 2003 to 2013 were analyzed by using administrative linked data based on the Minimum Basic Set discharge registry of the Department of Health (Region of Murcia, Spain). Index hospitalizations with HF as principal diagnosis (n=27,581) were identified. Transfers between centers were merged into one discharge. Readmissions were defined as unplanned admissions to any hospital within 30-days after discharge. In the 2003-2013 period, 30-day readmission rates had a relative mean annual growth of +1.36%, increasing from 17.6% to 22.1%, with similar trends for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes. The figure of 22.1% decreased to 19.8% when only same-hospital readmissions were considered. Most readmissions were due to cardiovascular causes (60%), HF being the most common single cause (34%). The timing of readmission shows an early peak on the fourth day post discharge (+13.29%) due to causes other than HF, followed by a gradual decline (-3.32%); readmission for HF decreased steadily from the first day (-2.22%). Readmission for HF (12.7%) or non-cardiovascular causes (13.3%) had higher in-hospital mortality rates than the index hospitalization (9.2%, p<0.001). Age and comorbidity burden were the main predictors of any readmission, but the performance of a predictive model was poor. These findings support the need for population-based strategies to reduce the burden of early-unplanned readmissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medalie, Laura

    2016-12-20

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, estimated daily and 9-month concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids from 1990 (or first available date) through 2014 for 18 tributaries of Lake Champlain. Estimates of concentration and flux, provided separately in Medalie (2016), were made by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) regression model and update previously published WRTDS model results with recent data. Assessment of progress towards meeting phosphorus-reduction goals outlined in the Lake Champlain management plan relies on annual estimates of phosphorus flux. The percent change in annual concentration and flux is provided for two time periods. The R package EGRETci was used to estimate the uncertainty of the trend estimate. Differences in model specification and function between this study and previous studies that used WRTDS to estimate concentration and flux using data from Lake Champlain tributaries are described. Winter data were too sparse and nonrepresentative to use for estimates of concentration and flux but were sufficient for estimating the percentage of total annual flux over the period of record. Median winter-to-annual fractions ranged between 21 percent for total suspended solids and 27 percent for dissolved phosphorus. The winter contribution was largest for all constituents from the Mettawee River and smallest from the Ausable River. For the full record (1991 through 2014 for total and dissolved phosphorus and chloride and 1993 through 2014 for nitrogen and total suspended solids), 6 tributaries had decreasing trends in concentrations of total phosphorus, and 12 had increasing trends; concentrations of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 6 and increased in 8 tributaries; fluxes of total phosphorus decreased in 5 and

  5. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  6. Estimates of water use and trends in the Colorado River Basin, Southwestern United States, 1985–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maupin, Molly A.; Ivahnenko, Tamara I.; Bruce, Breton

    2018-06-26

    The Colorado River Basin (CRB) drains 246,000 square miles and includes parts of California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, and all of Arizona (Basin States). This report contains water-use estimates by category of use for drainage basins (Hydrologic Unit Code 8; HUC‑8) within the CRB from 1985 to 2010, at 5-year intervals. Estimates for public supply, domestic, commercial, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, aquaculture, hydroelectric and thermoelectric power, and wastewater returns are tabulated as (1) water withdrawals from groundwater or surface‑water sources of fresh or saline quality, (2) water delivered for domestic use, (3) wastewater returns and instream use (hydroelectric), and (4) consumptive use, or water that is consumed (USGS definition) and not available for immediate reuse. Water transported outside of the CRB (interbasin transfers) is not included as part of withdrawals and are not accounted for in any category of use within the CRB.Total withdrawals in the CRB (excluding interbasin transfers) averaged about 17 million acre-feet (maf) from 1985 to 2010, peaked at about 17.76 maf in 2000, and reached their lowest levels of 16.43 maf in 1990. Interbasin transfers to serve mostly public-supply and irrigation needs outside of the CRB are reported for 2000, 2005, and 2010 only, and averaged 5.40 maf. More surface water was used in the CRB than groundwater, averaging about 78 percent of total withdrawals, and its use increased less than 2 percent from 1985 to 2010, while groundwater withdrawals decreased about 12 percent. From 1985 to 2010, surface water averaged 98 percent of withdrawals in the upper CRB, and about 59 percent in the lower CRB. Nearly all withdrawals were freshwater, but some saline groundwater was used for mining and self-supplied industrial.Interbasin transfers have a large effect on flows in the Colorado River and are listed in this report separately with no explanation of how the water is used outside of

  7. Time trends in social class mortality: differentials in the Netherlands, 1820-1920: an assessment based on indirect estimation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Jennissen, R.; Mandemakers, K.

    2009-01-01

    The question whether socioeconomic status gradients in adult mortality have changed over a broad historical period has become an important political and theoretical issue but is hard to test. In this article we study long-term trends in social inequality in adult mortality by using data for 2 (of

  8. Lifetime Estimation of DC-link Capacitors in a Single-phase Converter with an Integrated Active Power Decoupling Module

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Siyuan; Wang, Haoran; Tang, Junchaojie

    2016-01-01

    In single-phase inverters, DC-link capacitors are installed at the DC-link to buffer the ripple power between the AC side and DC side. Active decoupling methods introduce additional circuits at the DC side or AC side to partially or fully supply the ripple power. So that the demanded DC-link capa......In single-phase inverters, DC-link capacitors are installed at the DC-link to buffer the ripple power between the AC side and DC side. Active decoupling methods introduce additional circuits at the DC side or AC side to partially or fully supply the ripple power. So that the demanded DC......-link capacitor capacitance can be decreased. However, few research is about the effect of DC side and AC side decoupling on the DC-link capacitor reliability considering its electro-thermal stresses. This paper presents a quantitative analysis on the lifetime of capacitors with power decoupling circuits...... at the DC side and AC side, respectively. The ripple current spectrum of the capacitors is obtained by double Fourier analysis of a H-bridge inverter with natural sampling PWM modulation. A study case is demonstrated by a 2,000 W H-bridge inverter with 400 V DC-link voltage....

  9. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

    2017-06-02

    An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

  10. Global, regional and national levels and trends of preterm birth rates for 1990 to 2014: protocol for development of World Health Organization estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Joshua P; Chawanpaiboon, Saifon; Watananirun, Kanokwaroon; Lumbiganon, Pisake; Petzold, Max; Moller, Ann-Beth; Thinkhamrop, Jadsada; Laopaiboon, Malinee; Seuc, Armando H; Hogan, Daniel; Tunçalp, Ozge; Allanson, Emma; Betrán, Ana Pilar; Bonet, Mercedes; Oladapo, Olufemi T; Gülmezoglu, A Metin

    2016-06-17

    The official WHO estimates of preterm birth are an essential global resource for assessing the burden of preterm birth and developing public health programmes and policies. This protocol describes the methods that will be used to identify, critically appraise and analyse all eligible preterm birth data, in order to develop global, regional and national level estimates of levels and trends in preterm birth rates for the period 1990 - 2014. We will conduct a systematic review of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) data on preterm birth for all WHO Member States, via national Ministries of Health and Statistics Offices. For Member States with absent, limited or lower-quality CRVS data, a systematic review of surveys and/or research studies will be conducted. Modelling will be used to develop country, regional and global rates for 2014, with time trends for Member States where sufficient data are available. Member States will be invited to review the methodology and provide additional eligible data via a country consultation before final estimates are developed and disseminated. This research will be used to generate estimates on the burden of preterm birth globally for 1990 to 2014. We invite feedback on the methodology described, and call on the public health community to submit pertinent data for consideration. Registered at PROSPERO CRD42015027439 CONTACT: pretermbirth@who.int.

  11. Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices

    OpenAIRE

    Michael T. Kiley

    2008-01-01

    I examine the common trend in inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding prices of food and energy. Both the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) indexes and the consumer price indexes (CPI) are examined. The statistical model employed is a bivariate integrated moving average process; this model extends a univariate model that fits the data on inflation very well. The bivariate model forecasts as well as the univariate models. The results suggest that the relationship betwe...

  12. Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shankar, D.

    yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm/ yrear-1 , with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr-1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional average of 1.29 mm-1.. These estimates are consistent...

  13. Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocenter motion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo; Ditmar, Pavel

    2016-11-01

    The focus of the study is optimizing the technique for estimating geocenter motion and variations in J2 by combining data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission with output from an Ocean Bottom Pressure model and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model. First, we conduct an end-to-end numerical simulation study. We generate input time-variable gravity field observations by perturbing a synthetic Earth model with realistically simulated errors. We show that it is important to avoid large errors at short wavelengths and signal leakage from land to ocean, as well as to account for self-attraction and loading effects. Second, the optimal implementation strategy is applied to real GRACE data. We show that the estimates of annual amplitude in geocenter motion are in line with estimates from other techniques, such as satellite laser ranging (SLR) and global GPS inversion. At the same time, annual amplitudes of C10 and C11 are increased by about 50% and 20%, respectively, compared to estimates based on Swenson et al. (2008). Estimates of J2 variations are by about 15% larger than SLR results in terms of annual amplitude. Linear trend estimates are dependent on the adopted GIA model but still comparable to some SLR results.

  14. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  15. A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijsmans, J. F. M.; Vermeulen, G. D.; Hol, J. M. G.; Goedhart, P. W.

    2018-01-01

    Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure ('slurry') application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling the emission expressed as a percentage of the ammonia still present at the start of each period as the response variable, were developed separately for broadcast spreading, narrow band application (trailing shoe) and shallow injection. Wind speed, temperature, soil type, total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content and dry matter content of the manure, application rate and grass height were selected as significant explanatory variables. Their effects differed for each application method and among periods. Temperature and wind speed were generally the most important drivers for emission. The fitted regression models were used to reveal seasonal trends in NH3 emission employing historical meteorological data for the years 1991-2014. The overall average emission was higher in early and midsummer than in early spring and late summer. This seasonal trend was most pronounced for broadcast spreading followed by narrow band application, and was almost absent for shallow injection. However, due to the large variation in weather conditions, emission on a particular day in early spring can be higher than on a particular day in summer. The analysis further revealed that, in a specific scenario and depending on the application technique, emission could be reduced with 20-30% by restricting manure application to favourable days, i.e. with weather conditions with minimal emission levels.

  16. A comparison of methods to estimate vertical land motion trends from GNSS and altimetry at tide gauge stations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleinherenbrink, M.; Riva, R.E.M.; Frederikse, T.

    2018-01-01

    Tide gauge (TG) records are affected by vertical land motion (VLM), causing them to observe relative instead of geocentric sea level. VLM can be estimated from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series, but only a few TGs are equipped with a GNSS receiver. Hence, (multiple)

  17. Non-Fatal Injury in Thailand From 2005 to 2013: Incidence Trends and Links to Alcohol Consumption Patterns in the Thai Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mami Wakabayashi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: We analyzed population-based injury trends and the association between injury and alcohol consumption patterns in Thailand, a middle-income country undergoing rapid social change. Methods: A nationwide cohort of 42 785 Thai adult Open University students, who were aged 15 to 87 years at enrolment, participated in cross-sectional assessments at baseline (2005 and 8 years later (2013. Incident non-fatal traffic and non-traffic injuries were recorded. Alcohol consumption patterns were categorized as follows: nondrinkers, occasional light drinkers, occasional heavy drinkers, regular drinkers, and ex-drinkers. Logistic regression was used to assess associations in 2005 and 2013 between injuries and alcohol consumption. We adjusted odds ratios (ORs for socio-demographic factors, stress, health behaviors, and risk-taking behaviors. Results: Incidence estimates in 2013 were standardized to the age structure of 2005: the standardized rates were 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.32–9.89 for participants with at least one non-traffic injury and 5% (95% CI, 4.86–5.29 for those with at least one traffic injury. Both standardized incidences for non-traffic and traffic injuries were significantly lower than corresponding rates in 2005 (20% and 6%, respectively. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with non-traffic injury in 2005, but the association disappeared in 2013. For example, nontraffic injury was associated with regular drinking (adjusted OR 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01–1.40 in 2005, but not in 2013 (adjusted OR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.73–1.10. In both survey years, traffic injury was not associated with occasional heavy drinking when adjusted for health and risk-taking behavior. Conclusions: We examined non-fatal injury and the health-risk transition in Thailand in 2005 and 2013. Our data revealed decreases in alcohol consumption and non-fatal injury in the Thai Cohort between 2005 and 2013. Alcoholrelated injury in Thailand today

  18. National Characteristics of Lymphatic Malformations in Children: Inpatient Estimates and Trends in the United States, 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jeffrey; Liu, Beiyu; Farjat, Alfredo E; Routh, Jonathan

    2018-04-01

    With ever increasing demands to manage finite resources for health care utilization, we performed an investigation to identify inpatient clinical characteristics and trends in children with lymphatic malformations using the Kids' Inpatient Database, years 2000 to 2009, to help identify populations best suited for resource deployment. Subjects included children 18 years and below with International Classification of Diseases (ICD), ninth revision code: 228.1-lymphangioma, any site. In the United States, between 2000 and 2009, inpatient pediatric patients with lymphatic malformations most commonly affected children aged 3 years and younger, urban hospital locations, and the South and West regions. There was no significant change in age of children with lymphatic malformations or the distribution of their age from year to year, P=0.948 and 0.4223, respectively. No significant evidence for seasonal variation or effect on inpatient admission was identified, P=0.7071. A great majority of admissions (>96%) were in urban locations across each year. There was also no significant change in breakdown of admissions by geographic location, P=0.7133. Further investigation may help to elucidate how to improve access to multidisciplinary vascular anomalies teams to optimize care for these children with unique and complex lymphatic malformations.

  19. Estimating Trends and Variation of Net Biome Productivity in India for 1980-2012 Using a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahlot, Shilpa; Shu, Shijie; Jain, Atul K.; Baidya Roy, Somnath

    2017-11-01

    In this paper we explore the trend in net biome productivity (NBP) over India for the period 1980-2012 and quantify the impact of different environmental factors, including atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), land use and land cover change, climate, and nitrogen deposition on carbon fluxes using a land surface model, Integrated Science Assessment Model. Results show that terrestrial ecosystems of India have been a carbon sink for this period. Driven by a strong CO2 fertilization effect, magnitude of NBP increased from 27.17 TgC/yr in the 1980s to 34.39 TgC/yr in the 1990s but decreased to 23.70 TgC/yr in the 2000s due to change in climate. Adoption of forest conservation, management, and reforestation policies in the past decade has promoted carbon sequestration in the ecosystems, but this effect has been offset by loss of carbon from ecosystems due to rising temperatures and decrease in precipitation.

  20. Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas, T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M. The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

  1. Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriticos, Darren J; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J; Cook, David C; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Stephens, Andréa E A; Watt, Michael S

    2013-01-01

    Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

  2. Radiotherapy in Sweden. A study of present use in relation to the literature and an estimate of future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froedin, J.E.; Moeller, T.

    1996-01-01

    This report addresses the role of radiotherapy for treating solid tumors. It is based on a systematic and critical review of the scientific literature, covering close to 1 700 published studies, involving more than 700 000 patients. The report also compares current practice in radiotherapy with scientific evidence and estimates the cost of radiotherapy. The review of the literature shows there is a fairly solid basis for conclusions about appropriate practices in radiotherapy. There are about 650 studies available which are judged to be of high scientific quality, covering more than half a million patients. This article is a summary of the complete report, which appears as Supplement 6 and 7 of this issue. A third volume, 'Critical Issues in Radiotherapy' is available at SBU. (orig.)

  3. Highlights of trends in pregnancies and pregnancy rates by outcome: estimates for the United States, 1976-96.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, S J; Mosher, W D; Curtin, S C; Abma, J C; Henshaw, S

    1999-12-15

    This report presents key findings from a comprehensive report on pregnancies and pregnancy rates for U.S. women. The study incorporates birth, abortion, and fetal loss data to compile national estimates of pregnancy rates according to a variety of characteristics including age, race, Hispanic origin, and marital status. Summary data are presented for 1976-96. Data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) are used to show information on sexual activity and contraceptive practices, as well as women's reports of pregnancy intentions. Tabular and graphic data on pregnancy rates by demographic characteristics are presented and interpreted. Birth data are from the birth registration system for all births registered in the United States and reported by State health departments to NCHS; abortion data are from The Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI) and the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); and fetal loss data are from pregnancy history information collected in the NSFG. In 1996 an estimated 6.24 million pregnancies resulted in 3.89 million live births, 1.37 million induced abortions, and 0.98 million fetal losses. The pregnancy rate in 1996 was 104.7 pregnancies per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, 9 percent lower than in 1990 (115.6), and the lowest recorded since 1976 (102.7). Since 1990 rates have dropped 8 percent for live births, 16 percent for induced abortions, and 4 percent for fetal losses. The teenage pregnancy rate has declined considerably in the 1990's, falling 15 percent from its 1991 high of 116.5 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 to 98.7 in 1996. Among the factors accounting for this decline are decreased sexual activity, increases in condom use, and the adoption of the injectable and implant contraceptives.

  4. Estimating soil water-holding capacities by linking the Food and Agriculture Organization Soil map of the world with global pedon databases and continuous pedotransfer functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, C. A.; Jackson, T. J.; Rawls, W. J.

    2000-12-01

    Spatial soil water-holding capacities were estimated for the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) digital Soil Map of the World (SMW) by employing continuous pedotransfer functions (PTF) within global pedon databases and linking these results to the SMW. The procedure first estimated representative soil properties for the FAO soil units by statistical analyses and taxotransfer depth algorithms [Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 1996]. The representative soil properties estimated for two layers of depths (0-30 and 30-100 cm) included particle-size distribution, dominant soil texture, organic carbon content, coarse fragments, bulk density, and porosity. After representative soil properties for the FAO soil units were estimated, these values were substituted into three different pedotransfer functions (PTF) models by Rawls et al. [1982], Saxton et al. [1986], and Batjes [1996a]. The Saxton PTF model was finally selected to calculate available water content because it only required particle-size distribution data and results closely agreed with the Rawls and Batjes PTF models that used both particle-size distribution and organic matter data. Soil water-holding capacities were then estimated by multiplying the available water content by the soil layer thickness and integrating over an effective crop root depth of 1 m or less (i.e., encountered shallow impermeable layers) and another soil depth data layer of 2.5 m or less.

  5. Estimates of genetic parameters, genetic trends, and inbreeding in a crossbred dairy sheep research flock in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, T W; Berger, Y M; Holman, P W; Baldin, M; Burgett, R L; Thomas, D L

    2017-10-01

    For the past 2 decades, the Spooner Agriculture Research Station (ARS) of the University of Wisconsin-Madison operated the only dairy sheep research flock in North America. The objectives of the present study were to 1) obtain estimates of genetic parameters for lactation and reproductive traits in dairy ewes, 2) estimate the amount of genetic change in these traits over time, and 3) quantify the level of inbreeding in this flock over the last 20 yr. Multiple-trait repeatability models (MTRM) were used to analyze ewe traits through their first 6 parities. The first MTRM jointly analyzed milk (180-d-adjusted milk yield [180d MY]), fat (180-d-adjusted fat yield [180d FY]), and protein (180-d-adjusted protein yield [180d PY]) yields adjusted to 180 d of lactation; number of lambs born per ewe lambing (NLB); and lactation average test-day somatic cell score (LSCS). A second MTRM analyzed 180d MY, NLB, LSCS, and percentage milk fat (%F) and percentage milk protein (%P). The 3 yield traits were moderately heritable (0.26 to 0.32) and strongly genetically correlated (0.91 to 0.96). Percentage milk fat and %P were highly heritable (0.53 and 0.61, respectively) and moderately genetically correlated (0.61). Milk yield adjusted to 180 d was negatively genetically correlated with %F and %P (-0.31 and -0.34, respectively). Ewe prolificacy was not significantly ( > 0.67) genetically correlated with yield traits, %P, or LSCS but lowly negatively correlated with %F (-0.26). Lactation somatic cell score was unfavorably genetically correlated with yield traits (0.28 to 0.39) but not significantly ( > 0.09) correlated with %F, %P, and NLB. Within-trait multiple-trait models through the first 4 parities revealed that 180d MY, 180d FY, 180d PY, %F, and %P were strongly genetically correlated across parity (0.67 to 1.00). However, the genetic correlations across parity for NLB and LSCS were somewhat lower (0.51 to 0.96). Regressing predicted breeding values for 180d MY, without and with

  6. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in US meat and poultry: 2012-13 levels, trends and estimated consumer exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupton, Sara J; Hakk, Heldur

    2017-09-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a class of brominated flame retardants whose use has contaminated foods and caused subsequent human exposures. To address the issue of possible human exposure, samples from a 2012-13 US meat and poultry (beef, pork, chicken, turkey) study were analysed for seven PBDEs. The mean summed concentrations of the seven BDE congeners (ΣPBDE) from beef, pork, chicken and turkey were 0.40, 0.36, 0.19, and 0.76 ng g -1 lipid weight (lw). The range of ΣPBDEs for all meat classes was 0.01-15.78 ng g -1 lw. A comparison of this study with a 2007-08 study revealed a decline in the median ΣPBDEs for all four meat classes, a reduction of 25.9% to 70.0%, with pork, chicken and turkey PBDE residues being statistically lower relative to the 2007-08 study. BDEs 47 and 99 contributed the most to the ΣPBDE concentrations, indicating likely animal exposures to the penta-BDE formulation. Based on the reported data an estimate of US consumer daily intake of PBDEs from meat and poultry was 6.42 ng day -1 .

  7. Use of recent and historical records to estimate status and trends of a rare and imperiled stream fish, Percina jenkinsi (Percidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagler, Megan M.; Freeman, Mary C.; Wenger, Seth J.; Freeman, Byron J.; Rakes, Patrick L.; Shute, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    Rarely encountered animals may be present but undetected, potentially leading to incorrect assumptions about the persistence of a local population or the conservation priority of a particular area. The federally endangered and narrowly endemic Conasauga logperch (Percina jenkinsi) is a good example of a rarely encountered fish species of conservation concern, for which basic population statistics are lacking. We evaluated the occurrence frequency for this species using surveys conducted with a repeat-observation sampling approach during the summer of 2008. We also analyzed museum records since the late 1980s to evaluate the trends in detected status through time. The results of these analyses provided support for a declining trend in this species over a portion of its historical range, despite low estimated detection probability. We used the results to identify the expected information return for a given level of monitoring where the sampling approach incorporates incomplete detection. The method applied here may be of value where historic occurrence records are available, provided that the assumption of constant capture efficiency is reasonable.

  8. Lineage range estimation method reveals fine-scale endemism linked to Pleistocene stability in Australian rainforest herpetofauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosauer, Dan F; Catullo, Renee A; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moussalli, Adnan; Moritz, Craig

    2015-01-01

    Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen, shifted, and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles, and through this shifting landscape, current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia, areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape, support persistence of lineages through time, and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted, and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However, it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism, because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages, which is informed by the ecological niche of a species and known locations of its constituent lineages. Our approach allows for the effects of isolation by unsuitable habitat, and captures uncertainty in the extent of lineage ranges. Applying this method to the arc of rainforest areas spanning 3500 km in eastern Australia, we estimated lineage endemism for 53 species of rainforest dependent herpetofauna with available phylogeographic data. We related endemism to the stability of rainforest habitat over the past 120,000 years and identified distinct concentrations of lineage endemism that can be considered putative refugia. These areas of lineage endemism are strongly related to historical stability of rainforest habitat, after controlling for the effects of current environment. In fact, a dynamic stability model that allows movement to track suitable habitat over time was the most important factor in explaining current patterns of endemism. The techniques presented here provide an objective, practical method for estimating

  9. Trends of precipitation characteristics in the Czech Republic over 1961–2012, their spatial patterns and links to temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan

    (2017) ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-04676S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation * trend analysis * spatial pattern * temperature * the North Atlantic Oscillation * the Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5392/full

  10. The link between employee attitudes and employee effectiveness: Data matrix of meta-analytic estimates based on 1161 unique correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael M. Mackay

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article offers a correlation matrix of meta-analytic estimates between various employee job attitudes (i.e., Employee engagement, job satisfaction, job involvement, and organizational commitment and indicators of employee effectiveness (i.e., Focal performance, contextual performance, turnover intention, and absenteeism. The meta-analytic correlations in the matrix are based on over 1100 individual studies representing over 340,000 employees. Data was collected worldwide via employee self-report surveys. Structural path analyses based on the matrix, and the interpretation of the data, can be found in “Investigating the incremental validity of employee engagement in the prediction of employee effectiveness: a meta-analytic path analysis” (Mackay et al., 2016 [1]. Keywords: Meta-analysis, Job attitudes, Job performance, Employee, Engagement, Employee effectiveness

  11. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Prevention Recovery Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search ... the link between drug misuse and HIV/AIDS, populations most at risk, trends in HIV/AIDS, and ...

  12. Modelling the biological half-life and seasonality of 14C in Fucus vesiculosus from the east coast of Ireland: Implications for the estimation of future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keogh, S.M.; Cournane, S.; Leon Vintro, L.; McGee, E.J.; Mitchell, P.I.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Carbon-14 levels measured in Fucus vesiculosus collected on the east coast of Ireland. → Numerical model applied to estimate transit times from Sellafield source. → Mean availability time of 14 C in seaweed also calculated. → Inclusion of model parameter accounts for potential seasonal variability of C-14. → Levels reduced to background within 2.5 years of discharges being set to zero. - Abstract: Radiocarbon levels were recorded in Fucus vesiculosus samples collected on a monthly basis over a three-year period at a site on the east coast of Ireland. The resulting data was analysed using a numerical model which estimates the transit times from the Sellafield plant to the sampling location, and the mean availability time of 14 C in seaweed. With the inclusion of a model parameter allowing for seasonal variability in uptake by the Fucus, good correlation was observed between the predicted and measured concentrations. Future temporal trends of 14 C Fucus concentrations along the eastern Irish coastline were modelled with the application of three possible prospective discharge scenarios, predicting 14 C Fucus concentrations to reduce to ambient background levels within 2.5-years of discharges being set to zero. Such projections may prove helpful in assessing the consequences of discharge management and policy making in the context of the OSPAR convention.

  13. Trends in peptic ulcer disease and the identification of Helicobacter Pylori as a causative organism: Population-based estimates from the US nationwide inpatient sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronislava Bashinskaya

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Peptic ulcer disease can lead to serious complications including massive hemorrhage or bowel perforation. The modern treatment of peptic ulcer disease has transitioned from the control of gastric acid secretion to include antibiotic therapy in light of the identification of Helicobacter pylori as a causative infectious organism. We sought to determine trends related to this discovery by using a national database. Materials and Methods: Patient discharges with peptic ulcer disease and associated sequelae were queried from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 1993 to 2007, under the auspices of a data user agreement. To account for the Nationwide Inpatient Sample weighting schema, design-adjusted analyses were used. Standard error was calculated using SUDAAN software (Research Triangle International, NC, USA. Results: Decreases in the incidences of gastrointestinal perforation, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and surgical procedures most specific to peptic ulcer disease were statistically significant over the study period [range of P value (two tailed = 0.000 - 0.00353; significant at P < 0.001 to < 0.01]. The incidence of H. pylori rose dramatically, peaking at an estimated 97,823 cases in 1998 [SE = 3155; 95% CI = 6,184]. Since that time it has decreased and then stabilized. Conclusions: The identification of H. pylori as the causative agent in the majority of peptic ulcer disease has revolutionized the understanding and management of the disease. Medical conditions and surgical procedures associated with end-stage peptic ulcer disease have significantly decreased according to analysis of selected index categories. Resident physician education objectives may need to be modified in light of these trends. Review Criteria: We reviewed patients with peptic ulcer disease. The database used was the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 1993 to 2007. Message for the Clinic: Medical therapy has resulted in decreased morbidity from H. pylori infection as it

  14. An estimation of vehicle kilometer traveled and on-road emissions using the traffic volume and travel speed on road links in Incheon City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sungwoon; Kim, Jounghwa; Kim, Jeongsoo; Hong, Dahee; Park, Dongjoo

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study is to estimate the vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) and on-road emissions using the traffic volume in urban. We estimated two VKT; one is based on registered vehicles and the other is based on traffic volumes. VKT for registered vehicles was 2.11 times greater than that of the applied traffic volumes because each VKT estimation method is different. Therefore, we had to define the inner VKT is moved VKT inner in urban to compare two values. Also, we focused on freight modes because these are discharged much air pollutant emissions. From analysis results, we found middle and large trucks registered in other regions traveled to target city in order to carry freight, target city has included many industrial and logistics areas. Freight is transferred through the harbors, large logistics centers, or via locations before being moved to the final destination. During this process, most freight is moved by middle and large trucks, and trailers rather than small trucks for freight import and export. Therefore, these trucks from other areas are inflow more than registered vehicles. Most emissions from diesel trucks had been overestimated in comparison to VKT from applied traffic volumes in target city. From these findings, VKT is essential based on traffic volume and travel speed on road links in order to estimate accurately the emissions of diesel trucks in target city. Our findings support the estimation of the effect of on-road emissions on urban air quality in Korea. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Estimated dissolved-solids loads and trends at selected streams in and near the Uinta Basin, Utah, Water Years 1989–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiros, Susan A.

    2017-03-23

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, studied trends in dissolved-solids loads at selected sites in and near the Uinta Basin, Utah. The Uinta Basin study area includes the Duchesne River Basin and the Middle Green River Basin in Utah from below Flaming Gorge Reservoir to the town of Green River.Annual dissolved-solids loads for water years (WY) 1989 through 2013 were estimated for 16 gaging stations in the study area using streamflow and water-quality data from the USGS National Water Information System database. Eight gaging stations that monitored catchments with limited or no agricultural land use (natural subbasins) were used to assess loads from natural sources. Four gaging stations that monitored catchments with agricultural land in the Duchesne River Basin were used to assess loads from agricultural sources. Four other gaging stations were included in the dissolved-solids load and trend analysis to help assess the effects of agricultural areas that drain to the Green River in the Uinta Basin, but outside of the Duchesne River Basin.Estimated mean annual dissolved-solids loads for WY 1989–2013 ranged from 1,520 tons at Lake Fork River above Moon Lake, near Mountain Home, Utah (UT), to 1,760,000 tons at Green River near Green River, UT. The flow-normalized loads at gaging stations upstream of agricultural activities showed no trend or a relatively small change. The largest net change in modeled flow-normalized load was -352,000 tons (a 17.8-percent decrease) at Green River near Green River, UT.Annual streamflow and modeled dissolved-solids loads at the gaging stations were balanced between upstream and downstream sites to determine how much water and dissolved solids were transported to the Duchesne River and a section of the Green River, and how much was picked up in each drainage area. Mass-balance calculations of WY 1989–2013 mean annual dissolved-solids loads at the studied sites show

  16. Comparison of dew point temperature estimation methods in Southwestern Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus D. Williams; Scott L. Goodrick; Andrew Grundstein; Marshall Shepherd

    2015-01-01

    Recent upward trends in acres irrigated have been linked to increasing near-surface moisture. Unfortunately, stations with dew point data for monitoring near-surface moisture are sparse. Thus, models that estimate dew points from more readily observed data sources are useful. Daily average dew temperatures were estimated and evaluated at 14 stations in...

  17. Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

    2018-05-29

    To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    2017-05-13

    Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM 2·5 ) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure-response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure-response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Ambient PM 2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM 2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM 2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000-422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will

  19. Field estimation of the flock-level diagnostic specificity of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Avian metapneumovirus antibodies in turkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Zanzi, Claudia; Trampel, Darrell; Hanson, Tim; Harrison, Kristen; Goyal, Sagar; Cortinas, Roberto; Lauer, Dale

    2009-03-01

    Routine serologic testing for Avian metapneumovirus (AMPV) infection of turkey flocks at slaughter is currently being used to monitor changes in the occurrence of AMPV infection in endemic areas and can also be used to detect the emergence of infection in currently unaffected areas. Because of the costs associated with false-positive results, particularly in areas that are free of AMPV infection, there is a need to obtain improved estimates of flock-level specificity (SP). The objective of this study was to estimate flock-level SP of a program to monitor AMPV infection in turkey flocks at processing using a standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A study was carried out in which 37 AMPV-free flocks from 7 Midwest operations were followed serologically. Six percent, 3%, and 0.2% of total samples tested AMPV positive at 8 weeks, 12 weeks, and at processing, respectively. Overall, flock-level SP increased as the cutoff increased and as age increased. Flock-level SP at processing was 97%, if a cutoff of 1 was used (the flock was classified as positive if at least 1 sample tested positive), and 100%, if any other cutoff was used. Administration of antibiotics (P = 0.02) and vaccination for Bordetella avium (P = 0.08) were positively associated with the probability of (false) positive test results. These findings suggest possible cross-reactions with other infections and highlight the need to consider variable diagnostic performance depending on farm conditions.

  20. Developmental trends of hot and cool executive function in school-aged children with and without autism spectrum disorder: Links with theory of mind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouklari, Evangelia-Chrysanthi; Tsermentseli, Stella; Monks, Claire P

    2018-03-26

    The development of executive function (EF) in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been investigated using only "cool"-cognitive EF tasks while there is limited knowledge regarding the development of "hot"-affective EF. Although cool EF development and its links to theory of mind (ToM) have been widely examined, understanding of the influence of hot EF to ToM mechanisms is minimal. The present study introduced a longitudinal design to examine the developmental changes in cool and hot EF of children with ASD (n = 45) and matched (to age and IQ) controls (n = 37) as well as the impact of EF on ToM development over a school year. For children with ASD, although selective cool (working memory and inhibition) and hot (affective decision making) EF domains presented age-related improvements, they never reached the performance level of the control group. Early cool working memory predicted later ToM in both groups but early hot delay discounting predicted later ToM only in the ASD group. No evidence was found for the reverse pattern (early ToM predicting later EF). These findings suggest that improvements in some EF aspects are evident in school age in ASD and highlight the crucial role that both cool and hot EF play in ToM development.

  1. Estimating length of stay in publicly-funded residential and nursing care homes: a retrospective analysis using linked administrative data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steventon, Adam; Roberts, Adam

    2012-10-31

    Information about how long people stay in care homes is needed to plan services, as length of stay is a determinant of future demand for care. As length of stay is proportional to cost, estimates are also needed to inform analysis of the long-term cost effectiveness of interventions aimed at preventing admissions to care homes. But estimates are rarely available due to the cost of repeatedly surveying individuals. We used administrative data from three local authorities in England to estimate the length of publicly-funded care homes stays beginning in 2005 and 2006. Stays were classified into nursing home, permanent residential and temporary residential. We aggregated successive placements in different care home providers and, by linking to health data, across periods in hospital. The largest group of stays (38.9%) were those intended to be temporary, such as for rehabilitation, and typically lasted 4 weeks. For people admitted to permanent residential care, median length of stay was 17.9 months. Women stayed longer than men, while stays were shorter if preceded by other forms of social care. There was significant variation in length of stay between the three local authorities. The typical person admitted to a permanent residential care home will cost a local authority over £38,000, less payments due from individuals under the means test. These figures are not apparent from existing data sets. The large cost of care home placements suggests significant scope for preventive approaches. The administrative data revealed complexity in patterns of service use, which should be further explored as it may challenge the assumptions that are often made.

  2. Estimating length of stay in publicly-funded residential and nursing care homes: a retrospective analysis using linked administrative data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steventon Adam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Information about how long people stay in care homes is needed to plan services, as length of stay is a determinant of future demand for care. As length of stay is proportional to cost, estimates are also needed to inform analysis of the long-term cost effectiveness of interventions aimed at preventing admissions to care homes. But estimates are rarely available due to the cost of repeatedly surveying individuals. Methods We used administrative data from three local authorities in England to estimate the length of publicly-funded care homes stays beginning in 2005 and 2006. Stays were classified into nursing home, permanent residential and temporary residential. We aggregated successive placements in different care home providers and, by linking to health data, across periods in hospital. Results The largest group of stays (38.9% were those intended to be temporary, such as for rehabilitation, and typically lasted 4 weeks. For people admitted to permanent residential care, median length of stay was 17.9 months. Women stayed longer than men, while stays were shorter if preceded by other forms of social care. There was significant variation in length of stay between the three local authorities. The typical person admitted to a permanent residential care home will cost a local authority over £38,000, less payments due from individuals under the means test. Conclusions These figures are not apparent from existing data sets. The large cost of care home placements suggests significant scope for preventive approaches. The administrative data revealed complexity in patterns of service use, which should be further explored as it may challenge the assumptions that are often made.

  3. Overcoming trends in irregularly spaced locations by regional polish - exemplified by estimation of the range of influence between Salmonella Dublin-seropositive cattle herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersbøll, Annette Kjær; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the study was to develop a procedure to remove spatial trends in irregularly spaced data, with trends partly due to regional differences. Median polish is often used on regularly spaced (lattice) data where column and row medians are removed. For irregularly spaced data a low-resolutio...

  4. An integrated approach for estimating global glacio isostatic adjustment, land ice, hydrology and ocean mass trends within a complete coupled Earth system framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, M.; Bamber, J. L.; Martin, A.

    2016-12-01

    Future sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most serious consequences of climate change. Therefore, understanding the drivers of past sea level change is crucial for improving predictions. SLR integrates many Earth system components including oceans, land ice, terrestrial water storage, as well as solid Earth effects. Traditionally, each component have been tackled separately, which has often lead to inconsistencies between discipline-specific estimates of each part of the sea level budget. To address these issues, the European Research Council has funded a five year project aimed at producing a physically-based, data-driven solution for the complete coupled land-ocean-solid Earth system that is consistent with the full suite of observations, prior knowledge and fundamental geophysical constraints. The project is called "GlobalMass" and based at University of Bristol. Observed mass movement from the GRACE mission plus vertical land motion from a global network of permanent GPS stations will be utilized in a data-driven approach to estimate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without introducing any assumptions about the Earth structure or ice loading history. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) will be used as the framework to combine the satellite and in-situ observations alongside prior information that incorporates the physics of the coupled system such as conservation of mass and characteristic length scales of different processes in both space and time. The BHM is used to implement a simultaneous solution at a global scale. It will produce a consistent partitioning of the integrated SLR signal into its steric (thermal) and barystatic (mass) component for the satellite era. The latter component is induced by hydrological mass trends and melting of land ice. The BHM was developed and tested on Antarctica, where it has been used to separate surface, ice dynamic and GIA signals simultaneously. We illustrate the approach and concepts with examples from this test case

  5. SVPWM Technique with Varying DC-Link Voltage for Common Mode Voltage Reduction in a Matrix Converter and Analytical Estimation of its Output Voltage Distortion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padhee, Varsha

    Common Mode Voltage (CMV) in any power converter has been the major contributor to premature motor failures, bearing deterioration, shaft voltage build up and electromagnetic interference. Intelligent control methods like Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) techniques provide immense potential and flexibility to reduce CMV, thereby targeting all the afore mentioned problems. Other solutions like passive filters, shielded cables and EMI filters add to the volume and cost metrics of the entire system. Smart SVPWM techniques therefore, come with a very important advantage of being an economical solution. This thesis discusses a modified space vector technique applied to an Indirect Matrix Converter (IMC) which results in the reduction of common mode voltages and other advanced features. The conventional indirect space vector pulse-width modulation (SVPWM) method of controlling matrix converters involves the usage of two adjacent active vectors and one zero vector for both rectifying and inverting stages of the converter. By suitable selection of space vectors, the rectifying stage of the matrix converter can generate different levels of virtual DC-link voltage. This capability can be exploited for operation of the converter in different ranges of modulation indices for varying machine speeds. This results in lower common mode voltage and improves the harmonic spectrum of the output voltage, without increasing the number of switching transitions as compared to conventional modulation. To summarize it can be said that the responsibility of formulating output voltages with a particular magnitude and frequency has been transferred solely to the rectifying stage of the IMC. Estimation of degree of distortion in the three phase output voltage is another facet discussed in this thesis. An understanding of the SVPWM technique and the switching sequence of the space vectors in detail gives the potential to estimate the RMS value of the switched output voltage of any

  6. An enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay for estimating red cell survival of transfused red cells-validation using CR-51 labeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drew, H.; Kickler, T.; Smith, B.; LaFrance, N.

    1984-01-01

    The survival time of transfused red cells antigenically distinct from the recipient's red cells was determined using an indirect enzyme linked antiglobulin test. These results were then compared to those determined by Cr-51 labeling. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias and one patient (2 studies) with traumatic hemolytic anemia caused by a prosthetic heart valve were studied. Survival times were performed by transfusing a 5cc aliquot of Cr-51 labeled cells along with the remaining unit. One hour post transfusion, a blood sample was drawn and used as the 100% value. Subsequent samples drawn over a 2-3 week period were then compared to the initial sample to determine percent survival for both methods. The ELISA method for measuring red cell survival in antigenically distinct cells is in close agreement with the Cr-51 method. Although CR-51 labeling is the accepted method for red cell survival determination the ELISA method can be used when radioisotopes are unavailable or contraindicated or when the decision to estimate red cell survival is made after transfusion

  7. Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE): use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Colin R; Lone, Nazir; McMenamin, Jim; Gunson, Rory; Robertson, Chris; Ritchie, Lewis D; Sheikh, Aziz

    2015-10-01

    After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza. We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups. An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic). A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data. We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology. Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated. To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be

  8. Too Many Links in the Horizon; What is Next? Linked Views and Linked History

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Liarou (Erietta); S. Idreos (Stratos)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThe trend for more online linked data becomes stronger. Foreseeing a future where ``everything" will be online and linked, we ask the critical question; what is next? We envision that managing, querying and storing large amounts of links and data is far from yet another query

  9. Optical Computing - Research Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 7. Optical Computing - Research Trends. Debabrata Goswami. General Article Volume 8 Issue 7 July 2003 pp 8-21. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/07/0008-0021. Keywords.

  10. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  11. Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

    2018-05-01

    Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

  12. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411298119; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country

  13. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  14. Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2016-01-01

    Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

  15. Decline in HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia: national-level estimates of trends mask geographical and socio-demographic differences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkomba Kayeyi

    Full Text Available A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15-24 years in Zambia.We analysed ANC data for women aged 15-24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994-2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15-24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people.Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10% and 68% among urban women, and from stability to 86% among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002-2006, whereas population-based surveys in a selected urban community (1995-2003 suggested that the ANC-based data underestimated the prevalence declines in the general populations of both young both men and women.The overall HIV prevalence declined substantially among young women in Zambia and this is interpreted as indicating a decline in HIV incidence. It is noteworthy that overall national trends masked substantial differences by place and by educational attainment, demonstrating critical limitations in the current focus on overall country-level trends in

  16. Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

    2017-12-01

    To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

  17. Homeless Mentally Ill: Problems and Options in Estimating Numbers and Trends. Report to the Chairman, Committee on Labor and Human Resources, U.S. Senate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Program Evaluation and Methodology Div.

    In response to a request by the United States Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, the General Accounting Office (GAO) examined the methodological soundness of current population estimates of the number of homeless chronically mentally ill persons, and proposed several options for estimating the size of this population. The GAO reviewed…

  18. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... contracting or transmitting HIV/AIDS or other infectious diseases. Research Reports: HIV/AIDS : Explores the link between drug misuse and HIV/AIDS, populations most at risk, trends in HIV/AIDS, and ...

  19. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Parents & Educators Children & Teens Search Connect with NIDA : Facebook LinkedIn Twitter YouTube Flickr RSS Menu Home Drugs of Abuse Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts ...

  20. An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

    2010-10-01

    Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV

  1. Wage Sorting Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

    Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

  2. Trends in all-cause five-year mortality after head and neck cancers diagnosed over a period of 33 years. Focus on estimated degree of association with human papillomavirus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svahn, Malene F; Munk, Christian; Nielsen, Thor S S

    2016-01-01

    . Furthermore, we examine whether any trend over time differed according to sex, stage, and age at diagnosis. RESULTS: All-cause five-year mortality after HNSCC has decreased over time. The greatest decrease was seen in the last decade (2000-2010) among patients with HNSCC at sites estimated to be strongly......-based cohort study of all 20 925 individuals diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC) in Denmark 1978-2010, we investigate secular trends in all-cause five-year mortality after HNSCC according to the anticipated degree of association with HPV using a Cox proportional hazards model...... associated with HPV, i.e. the base of the tongue and the tonsils, where a 28% decrease per five years (e.g. HRbase of tongue/tonsils=0.72; 95% CI 0.64-0.81) was observed. When examining sex- and age-specific time trends, the decrease in mortality was most pronounced among male patients and patients below 60...

  3. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  4. Global, regional, and subregional trends in unintended pregnancy and its outcomes from 1990 to 2014: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Bearak, PhD

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: Estimates of pregnancy incidence by intention status and outcome indicate how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations, and can be used to monitor the impact of family-planning programmes. We estimate global, regional, and subregional pregnancy rates by intention status and outcome for 1990–2014. Methods: We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the unintended pregnancy rate is a function of the distribution of women across subgroups defined by marital status and contraceptive need and use, and of the risk of unintended pregnancy in each subgroup. Data included numbers of births and of women estimated by the UN Population Division, recently published abortion incidence estimates, and findings from surveys of women on the percentage of births or pregnancies that were unintended. Some 298 datapoints on the intention status of births or pregnancies were obtained for 105 countries. Findings: Worldwide, an estimated 44% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 42–48 of pregnancies were unintended in 2010–14. The unintended pregnancy rate declined by 30% (90% UI 21–39 in developed regions, from 64 (59–81 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years in 1990–94 to 45 (42–56 in 2010–14. In developing regions, the unintended pregnancy rate fell 16% (90% UI 5–24, from 77 (74–88 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years to 65 (62–76. Whereas the decline in the unintended pregnancy rate in developed regions coincided with a declining abortion rate, the decline in developing regions coincided with a declining unintended birth rate. In 2010–14, 59% (90% UI 54–65 of unintended pregnancies ended in abortion in developed regions, as did 55% (52–60 of unintended pregnancies in developing regions. Interpretation: The unintended pregnancy rate remains substantially higher in developing regions than in developed regions. Sexual and reproductive health services are needed to help women

  5. Business trend analysis by simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schonenberg, H.; Jian, J.; Sidorova, N.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Pernici, B.

    2010-01-01

    Business processes are constantly affected by the environment in which they execute. The environment can change due to seasonal and financial trends. For organisations it is crucial to understand their processes and to be able to estimate the effects of these trends on the processes. Business

  6. FORMATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF META-DATA ASSOCIATED WITH ESTIMATES OF «ONCO-» RISKS LINKED TO MEAT PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. L. Vostrikova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This review is devoted to formation of the integrated scientific foundation based on the data of different statistical publications (meta data that are linked to «onko-« risks associated with meat products. In October 2015, World Health Organization (WHO published a report, in which red meat was classified as probably carcinogenic to humans. In addition, the WHO experts made a conclusion about carcinogenicity of processed meat (meat that has been processed by smoking, salting, fermentation or other processes to extend storage. However, globally, there is no standardized method for reviewing the vast amount of studies on the mechanisms, by which lifestyle factors can cause cancer. At present, the work was begun on the development and testing of new methodology for performing systematic reviews of mechanistic investigations associated with a diet, nutrition, physical activity, and the development and progression of different types of cancer.A topical analysis of research in this direction will allow formation of basic meta data associated with «onko-» risks, linked to meat products, detection of basic and accompanying factors influencing «onko-» risks. The obtained information will enable the creation of a scientific reserve for further work on studying an effect of components entering into or developing in meat products associated with «onko-» risks.

  7. Linking annual N2O emission in organic soils to mineral nitrogen input as estimated by heterotrophic respiration and soil C/N ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Zhijian; Huang, Aiying; Ni, Jiupai; Xie, Deti

    2014-01-01

    Organic soils are an important source of N2O, but global estimates of these fluxes remain uncertain because measurements are sparse. We tested the hypothesis that N2O fluxes can be predicted from estimates of mineral nitrogen input, calculated from readily-available measurements of CO2 flux and soil C/N ratio. From studies of organic soils throughout the world, we compiled a data set of annual CO2 and N2O fluxes which were measured concurrently. The input of soil mineral nitrogen in these studies was estimated from applied fertilizer nitrogen and organic nitrogen mineralization. The latter was calculated by dividing the rate of soil heterotrophic respiration by soil C/N ratio. This index of mineral nitrogen input explained up to 69% of the overall variability of N2O fluxes, whereas CO2 flux or soil C/N ratio alone explained only 49% and 36% of the variability, respectively. Including water table level in the model, along with mineral nitrogen input, further improved the model with the explanatory proportion of variability in N2O flux increasing to 75%. Unlike grassland or cropland soils, forest soils were evidently nitrogen-limited, so water table level had no significant effect on N2O flux. Our proposed approach, which uses the product of soil-derived CO2 flux and the inverse of soil C/N ratio as a proxy for nitrogen mineralization, shows promise for estimating regional or global N2O fluxes from organic soils, although some further enhancements may be warranted.

  8. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  9. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  10. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  11. Operative Links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wistoft, Karen; Højlund, Holger

    2012-01-01

    educational goals, learning content, or value clarification. Health pedagogy is often a matter of retrospective rationalization rather than the starting point of planning. Health and risk behaviour approaches override health educational approaches. Conclusions: Operational links between health education......, health professionalism, and management strategies pose the foremost challenge. Operational links indicates cooperative levels that facilitate a creative and innovative effort across traditional professional boundaries. It is proposed that such links are supported by network structures, shared semantics...

  12. Using linked educational attainment data to reduce bias due to missing outcome data in estimates of the association between the duration of breastfeeding and IQ at 15 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornish, Rosie P; Tilling, Kate; Boyd, Andy; Davies, Amy; Macleod, John

    2015-06-01

    Most epidemiological studies have missing information, leading to reduced power and potential bias. Estimates of exposure-outcome associations will generally be biased if the outcome variable is missing not at random (MNAR). Linkage to administrative data containing a proxy for the missing study outcome allows assessment of whether this outcome is MNAR and the evaluation of bias. We examined this in relation to the association between infant breastfeeding and IQ at 15 years, where a proxy for IQ was available through linkage to school attainment data. Subjects were those who enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children in 1990-91 (n = 13 795), of whom 5023 had IQ measured at age 15. For those with missing IQ, 7030 (79%) had information on educational attainment at age 16 obtained through linkage to the National Pupil Database. The association between duration of breastfeeding and IQ was estimated using a complete case analysis, multiple imputation and inverse probability-of-missingness weighting; these estimates were then compared with those derived from analyses informed by the linkage. IQ at 15 was MNAR-individuals with higher attainment were less likely to have missing IQ data, even after adjusting for socio-demographic factors. All the approaches underestimated the association between breastfeeding and IQ compared with analyses informed by linkage. Linkage to administrative data containing a proxy for the outcome variable allows the MNAR assumption to be tested and more efficient analyses to be performed. Under certain circumstances, this may produce unbiased results. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  13. Levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India: a modelling study using the Family Planning Estimation Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Jin Rou; Cahill, Niamh; Stover, John; Gupta, Yogender Pal; Alkema, Leontine

    2017-03-01

    Improving access to reproductive health services and commodities is central to development. Efforts to assess progress on this front have been largely focused on national estimates, but such analyses can mask local disparities. We assessed progress in reproductive health services subnationally in India. We developed a statistical model to generate estimates and projections of levels and trends in family planning indicators for subpopulations. The model builds onto the UN Population Division's Family Planning Estimation Model and uses data from multiple rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey, the District Level Household & Facility Survey, and the Annual Health Survey. We present annual estimates and projections of levels and trends in the prevalence of modern contraceptive use, and unmet need and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India from 1990 to 2030. We also compared projections of demand satisfied with modern methods with the proposed goal of 75%. There is a large amount of heterogeneity in India, with a difference of up to 55·1 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval 46·4-62·1) in modern contraceptive use in 2015 between subregions. States such as Andhra Pradesh, with 92·7% (90·9-94·2) demand satisfied with modern methods, are performing well above the national average (71·8%, 56·7-83·6), whereas Manipur, with 26·8% (16·7-38·5) of demand satisfied, and Meghalaya, with 45·0% (40·1-50·0), consistently lag behind the rest of the country. Manipur and Meghalaya require the highest percentage increase in modern contraceptive use to achieve 75% demand satisfied with modern methods by 2030. In terms of absolute numbers, Uttar Pradesh requires the greatest increase, needing 9·2 million (5·5-12·6 million) additional users of modern contraception by 2030 to meet the target of 75%. The demand for family planning among the states and union territories in India is highly diverse. Greatest attention is needed in

  14. Trends in Adult Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Prevalence, Incidence and Urethral Discharge Case Reporting in Morocco over 1995–2015—Estimates Using the Spectrum-Sexually Transmitted Infection Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Kettani, Amina; Mahiané, Guy; Bennani, Aziza; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Hançali, Amina; Korenromp, Eline

    2017-01-01

    Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. Methods The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence surveys. Incident cases, broken down between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and treated versus untreated, were compared with urethral discharge (UD) case reports, to estimate reporting completeness among treated UD cases. Results Gonorrhea prevalence was estimated at 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14–1.0%) in women and 0.32% (0.12–0.87%) in men in 2015; chlamydia prevalences were 3.8% (95% CI, 2.1–6.4%) and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.7–5.1%). Corresponding estimated numbers of new cases in women and men in 2015 were 79,598 (95% CI, 23,918–256,206) and 112,013 (95% CI, 28,700–307,433) for gonorrhea, and 291,908 (95% CI, 161,064–524,270) and 314,032 (95% CI, 186,076–559,133) for chlamydia. Gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence had declined by an estimated 41% and 27%, respectively, over 1995 to 2015. Prevalence declines probably related to improved STI treatment coverage, and decreasing risk behaviors. Reporting completeness among treated UD cases was estimated at 46% to 77% in 2015. Reported UD cases corresponded to 13% of all estimated (symptomatic and asymptomatic) gonorrhea and chlamydia cases. Conclusions STI declines and improvements in treatment coverage are consistent with Morocco’s introduction of syndromic management in 2000, scale-up of prevention, and declining human immunodeficiency virus incidence. While gonorrhea is four-fold more common as cause of clinical UD cases than chlamydia, Morocco continues to suffer a large, untreated burden of chlamydia. Reliable monitoring of both STIs requires new periodic surveys and/or novel forms of affordable surveillance beyond high-risk populations. PMID

  15. Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen and carbon losses from arable soils in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Leip

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive assessment of policy impact on greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from agricultural soils requires careful consideration of both socio-economic aspects and the environmental heterogeneity of the landscape. We developed a modelling framework that links the large-scale economic model for agriculture CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact assessment with the biogeochemistry model DNDC (DeNitrification DeComposition to simulate GHG fluxes, carbon stock changes and the nitrogen budget of agricultural soils in Europe. The framework allows the ex-ante simulation of agricultural or agri-environmental policy impacts on a wide range of environmental problems such as climate change (GHG emissions, air pollution and groundwater pollution. Those environmental impacts can be analyzed in the context of economic and social indicators as calculated by the economic model. The methodology consists of four steps: (i definition of appropriate calculation units that can be considered as homogeneous in terms of economic behaviour and environmental response; (ii downscaling of regional agricultural statistics and farm management information from a CAPRI simulation run into the spatial calculation units; (iii designing environmental model scenarios and model runs; and finally (iv aggregating results for interpretation. We show the first results of the nitrogen budget in croplands in fourteen countries of the European Union and discuss possibilities to improve the detailed assessment of nitrogen and carbon fluxes from European arable soils.

  16. A Generic Simulation Approach for the Fast and Accurate Estimation of the Outage Probability of Single Hop and Multihop FSO Links Subject to Generalized Pointing Errors

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Issaid, Chaouki; Park, Kihong; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2017-01-01

    When assessing the performance of the free space optical (FSO) communication systems, the outage probability encountered is generally very small, and thereby the use of nave Monte Carlo simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. To estimate these rare event probabilities, we propose in this work an importance sampling approach which is based on the exponential twisting technique to offer fast and accurate results. In fact, we consider a variety of turbulence regimes, and we investigate the outage probability of FSO communication systems, under a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution, for both single and multihop scenarios. Selected numerical simulations are presented to show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo.

  17. A Generic Simulation Approach for the Fast and Accurate Estimation of the Outage Probability of Single Hop and Multihop FSO Links Subject to Generalized Pointing Errors

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Issaid, Chaouki

    2017-07-28

    When assessing the performance of the free space optical (FSO) communication systems, the outage probability encountered is generally very small, and thereby the use of nave Monte Carlo simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. To estimate these rare event probabilities, we propose in this work an importance sampling approach which is based on the exponential twisting technique to offer fast and accurate results. In fact, we consider a variety of turbulence regimes, and we investigate the outage probability of FSO communication systems, under a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution, for both single and multihop scenarios. Selected numerical simulations are presented to show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo.

  18. Industry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This section discusses the US energy supply and demand situation including projections for energy use, the clean coal industry (constraints of regulation on investment in new technologies, technology trends, and current pollution control efficiency), opportunities in clean coal technology (Phase 2 requirements of Title 4 of the Clean Air Act, scrubber demand for lime and limestone, and demand for low sulfur coal), and the international market of clean coal technologies

  19. Current trends in nursing theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Ok; Chang, Sun Ju

    2012-06-01

    To explore current trends in nursing theories through an integrated literature review. The literature related to nursing theories during the past 10 years was searched through multiple databases and reviewed to determine themes reflecting current trends in nursing theories. The trends can be categorized into six themes: (a) foci on specifics; (b) coexistence of various types of theories; (c) close links to research; (d) international collaborative works; (e) integration to practice; and (f) selective evolution. We need to make our continuous efforts to link research and practice to theories, to identify specifics of our theories, to develop diverse types of theories, and to conduct international collaborative works. Our paper gives implications for future theoretical development in diverse clinical areas of nursing research and practice. © 2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  20. Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, A.; Müller, R.; Homonnai, V.; Jánosi, I. M.; Hurst, D.; Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.; Rohrer, F.; Spelten, N.; Riese, M.

    2013-10-01

    Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N,105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TPz>14km), extratropical (TPzconcepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

  1. Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in north-western Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denna Michael

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Spectrum epidemiological models are used by UNAIDS to provide global, regional and national HIV estimates and projections, which are then used for evidence-based health planning for HIV services. However, there are no validations of the Spectrum model against empirical serological and mortality data from populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Serologic, demographic and verbal autopsy data have been regularly collected among over 30,000 residents in north-western Tanzania since 1994. Five-year age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs per 1,000 person years and the probability of dying between 15 and 60 years of age (45Q15, were calculated and compared with the Spectrum model outputs. Mortality trends by HIV status are shown for periods before the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (1994–1999, 2000–2005 and the first 5 years afterwards (2005–2009. Results: Among 30–34 year olds of both sexes, observed ASMRs per 1,000 person years were 13.33 (95% CI: 10.75–16.52 in the period 1994–1999, 11.03 (95% CI: 8.84–13.77 in 2000–2004, and 6.22 (95% CI; 4.75–8.15 in 2005–2009. Among the same age group, the ASMRs estimated by the Spectrum model were 10.55, 11.13 and 8.15 for the periods 1994–1999, 2000–2004 and 2005–2009, respectively. The cohort data, for both sexes combined, showed that the 45Q15 declined from 39% (95% CI: 27–55% in 1994 to 22% (95% CI: 17–29% in 2009, whereas the Spectrum model predicted a decline from 43% in 1994 to 37% in 2009. Conclusion: From 1994 to 2009, the observed decrease in ASMRs was steeper in younger age groups than that predicted by the Spectrum model, perhaps because the Spectrum model under-estimated the ASMRs in 30–34 year olds in 1994–99. However, the Spectrum model predicted a greater decrease in 45Q15 mortality than observed in the cohort, although the reasons for this over-estimate are unclear.

  2. Operative Links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wistoft, Karen; Højlund, Holger

    2012-01-01

    and have been the object of great expectations concerning the ability to incorporate health concerns into every welfare area through health promotion strategies. The paper draws on results and analyses of a collective research project funded by the Danish National Research Council and carried out...... links' that indicate cooperative levels which facilitate a creative and innovative effort in disease prevention and health promotion targeted at children and adolescents - across traditional professional boundaries. It is proposed that such links are supported by network structures, shared semantics...

  3. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : This Web ... projects/learn-link-drugs-hiv . 120x90 460x80 486x60 Social Media Send the message to young people and ...

  4. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Health Professionals Patients & Families Parents & Educators Children & Teens Search Connect with NIDA : Facebook LinkedIn Twitter YouTube Flickr ... Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications Orderable DrugFacts Research Reports Mind Over Matter ...

  5. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : This Web ... at: http://www.drugabuse.gov/news-events/public-education-projects/learn-link-drugs-hiv . 120x90 460x80 486x60 ...

  6. Scandinavian links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiessen, Christian Wichmann; Knowles, Richard D.

    2014-01-01

    are impressive mega structures spanning international waterways. These waterways between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea have played major roles in history. The length of each of the crossings are around 20 km. The fixed links closes gaps between the Scandinavian and European motorway and rail networks...

  7. Preliminary estimating the contemporary sedimentation trend in dry valley bottoms of first-order catchments of different landscape zones of the Russian Plain using the 137Cs as a chronomarker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifullin, A.; Gusarov, A.; Gafurov, A.; Essuman-Quainoo, B.

    2018-01-01

    A general trend of erosion processes over the last 50-60 years can be estimated by dating sediments washed off from arable lands and accumulated in the first-order dry valleys bottoms. Three small (first-order) catchments were chosen as objects of the study. They are located, respectively, in the southern part of the taiga zone, the zone of temperate broad-leaf forests and the forest-steppe zone of the Russian Plain. To date the sediments accumulated in the bottoms the radioactive caesium-137 (137Cs) of global (since 1954) and Chernobyl origin (1986) had been used as a chronomarker. The average (for all the catchments) sedimentation rates during the global 137Cs fallout period (1963(1954)-1986) are at least 0.88-2.71 cm per year.For the period that has passed since the Chernobyl accident (1986-2015(2016)) the average rates were 0.15-1.07 cm per year. The greatest reduction in the sedimentation rates is observed in the subzone of the southern taiga, the lowest one is in the forest-steppe zone of the Russian Plain. The main reason for such significant reduction in the rates of sedimentation of the soil erosion products in the dry valley bottoms was a reduction of surface runoff within the catchments during a snowmelt period, as well as crop-rotation changes there.

  8. Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

    2016-07-01

    In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

  9. Fractional cointegration rank estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasak, Katarzyna; Velasco, Carlos

    the parameters of the model under the null hypothesis of the cointegration rank r = 1, 2, ..., p-1. This step provides consistent estimates of the cointegration degree, the cointegration vectors, the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium parameters and the common trends. In the second step we carry out a sup......-likelihood ratio test of no-cointegration on the estimated p - r common trends that are not cointegrated under the null. The cointegration degree is re-estimated in the second step to allow for new cointegration relationships with different memory. We augment the error correction model in the second step...... to control for stochastic trend estimation effects from the first step. The critical values of the tests proposed depend only on the number of common trends under the null, p - r, and on the interval of the cointegration degrees b allowed, but not on the true cointegration degree b0. Hence, no additional...

  10. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilman, David; Clark, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Diets link environmental and human health. Rising incomes and urbanization are driving a global dietary transition in which traditional diets are replaced by diets higher in refined sugars, refined fats, oils and meats. By 2050 these dietary trends, if unchecked, would be a major contributor to an estimated 80 per cent increase in global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from food production and to global land clearing. Moreover, these dietary shifts are greatly increasing the incidence of type II diabetes, coronary heart disease and other chronic non-communicable diseases that lower global life expectancies. Alternative diets that offer substantial health benefits could, if widely adopted, reduce global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, reduce land clearing and resultant species extinctions, and help prevent such diet-related chronic non-communicable diseases. The implementation of dietary solutions to the tightly linked diet-environment-health trilemma is a global challenge, and opportunity, of great environmental and public health importance.

  11. Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.

    OpenAIRE

    Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette

    2014-01-01

    Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary...

  12. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  13. A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS: linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hossaini

    2016-07-01

    surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2. In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2 most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5 ppt,  ∼  57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.

  14. Sex-linked dominant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inheritance - sex-linked dominant; Genetics - sex-linked dominant; X-linked dominant; Y-linked dominant ... can be either an autosomal chromosome or a sex chromosome. It also depends on whether the trait ...

  15. Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

    OpenAIRE

    Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

  16. Trends of Negotiation Linking Environment with Trade and Countermeasures IV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, S.I.; Han, H.J.; Jeong, Y.G.; Choi, D.S. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    This study aims to review the how international organizations define the Polluter Pays Principle with regard to economic, environmental, and developmental cooperation. It also presents exceptions to the Polluter Pays Principle under OECD, WTO Agreements and other international instruments like European Union Acts. It further provides an overview of how the principle has been implemented at the national level as a market based environmental policy instrument. Originating as an economic, tenet, over the years, the Polluter Pays Principle has become a general concept used in OECD Member country environmental policies. After having only been a principle of environmental law at the national level, in the 1990s the principle became a general principle of international environmental law. Furthermore, the burden on polluters has increased in scope over time: at first, it involved only the costs of pollution prevention and control; later, it came to include compensation payments, taxes and charges, and is now evolving in certain instruments towards encompassed all pollution-related expenditure. This implies that the principles implementation produces substantial impacts on the environment and economy at both national and international levels. This study also makes a theoretical review of national and international impacts of the principle as it relates to international trade. The analysis proves that the economic and social welfares of the country implementing the principle improve, even if implementation increases the polluter's burden. For this reason, interest groups engaged in polluting activities are not always supportive to the implementation of the principle. There needs to be a complementary policy reaction compensating the loss of interest group affected by the implementation of the principle. The international implementation of the Polluter Pays Principle may cause the same kind of problems. It will be necessary to set up an adequate international cooperation framework supporting and mitigating the environmental burden of the countries whose economies depend heavily on polluting industries. Moreover, the implementation of the principle is not just an additional burden of environmental expenditure, but a necessary cost that guarantees the efficient allocation of limited global resources and decreases stress on worlds natural environment. (author). 84 refs., 4 tabs.

  17. Estimation of the petrophysical parameters of sediments from Chad ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Porosity was estimated from three methods, and polynomial trends having fits ranging between 0.0604 and 0.478 describe depth - porosity variations. Interpretation of the trends revealed lithology trend that agree with the trends of shaliness. Estimates of average effective porosities of formations favorably compared with ...

  18. Trends in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    School Planning & Management, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

  19. Marketing Trends to Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  20. Lung Cancer Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both Men and Women” Stay Informed Trends for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ...

  1. Citizen science based monitoring of Greylag goose (Anser anser in Bavaria (Germany: combining count data and bag data to estimate long-term trends between 1988/89 and 2010/11.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Grauer

    Full Text Available Numbers of large grazing bird (geese, swans, cranes have increased all over Europe, but monitoring these species, e.g. for management purposes, can be time consuming and costly. In Bavaria, sedentary Greylag geese (Anser anser are monitored during the winter by two different citizen-based monitoring schemes: the International Waterbird Census [IWC] and hunting bag statistics. We compared the results of both schemes for the seasons 1988/89 to 2010/11 by analysing annual indices calculated using the software TRends and Indices for Monitoring Data-TRIM.We identified similar, highly significant rates of increase in both data sets for the entire region of Bavaria (IWC 14% [13-15%], bag 13% [12-14%]. Furthermore, in all of the seven Bavarian regions, trends in annual indices of both data sets correlated significantly. The quality of both datasets as indicators of abundances in Greylag geese populations in Bavaria was not undermined by either weaknesses typically associated with citizen based monitoring or problems generally assumed for IWC and bag data. We also show that bag data are, under the German system of collecting bag statistics, a reliable indicator of species' distribution, especially for detecting newly colonized areas. Therefore, wildlife managers may want to consider bag data from citizen science led monitoring programmes as evidence supporting the decision making processes. We also discuss requirements for any bag monitoring schemes being established to monitor trends in species' distribution and abundance.

  2. Microwaves photonic links components and circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Rumelhard, Christian; Billabert, Anne-Laure

    2013-01-01

    This book presents the electrical models for the different elements of a photonic microwave link like lasers, external modulators, optical fibers, photodiodes and phototransistors. The future trends of these components are also introduced: lasers to VCSEL, external modulators to electro-absorption modulators, glass optical fibers to plastic optical fibers, photodiodes to UTC photodiodes or phototransistors. It also describes an original methodology to evaluate the performance of a microwave photonic link, based on the developed elcetrical models, that can be easily incorporated in

  3. A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slanicay Martin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I propose a flexible trend specification for estimating DSGE models on log differences. I demonstrate this flexible trend specification on a New Keynesian DSGE model of two economies, which I consequently estimate on data from the Czech economy and the euro area, using Bayesian techniques. The advantage of the trend specification proposed is that the trend component and the cyclical component are modelled jointly in a single model. The proposed trend specification is flexible in the sense that smoothness of the trend can be easily modified by different calibration of some of the trend parameters. The results suggest that this method is capable of finding a very reasonable trend in the data. Moreover, comparison of forecast performance reveals that the proposed specification offers more reliable forecasts than the original variant of the model.

  4. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

    2016-01-01

    In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

  5. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Colella

    Full Text Available In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity. Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication. Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020 and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I and coastal (i.e., Case II waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However

  6. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  7. Hierarchical Linked Views

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erbacher, Robert; Frincke, Deb

    2007-07-02

    Coordinated views have proven critical to the development of effective visualization environments. This results from the fact that a single view or representation of the data cannot show all of the intricacies of a given data set. Additionally, users will often need to correlate more data parameters than can effectively be integrated into a single visual display. Typically, development of multiple-linked views results in an adhoc configuration of views and associated interactions. The hierarchical model we are proposing is geared towards more effective organization of such environments and the views they encompass. At the same time, this model can effectively integrate much of the prior work on interactive and visual frameworks. Additionally, we expand the concept of views to incorporate perceptual views. This is related to the fact that visual displays can have information encoded at various levels of focus. Thus, a global view of the display provides overall trends of the data while focusing in on individual elements provides detailed specifics. By integrating interaction and perception into a single model, we show how one impacts the other. Typically, interaction and perception are considered separately, however, when interaction is being considered at a fundamental level and allowed to direct/modify the visualization directly we must consider them simultaneously and how they impact one another.

  8. Link prediction with node clustering coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhihao; Lin, Youfang; Wang, Jing; Gregory, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Predicting missing links in incomplete complex networks efficiently and accurately is still a challenging problem. The recently proposed Cannistrai-Alanis-Ravai (CAR) index shows the power of local link/triangle information in improving link-prediction accuracy. Inspired by the idea of employing local link/triangle information, we propose a new similarity index with more local structure information. In our method, local link/triangle structure information can be conveyed by clustering coefficient of common-neighbors directly. The reason why clustering coefficient has good effectiveness in estimating the contribution of a common-neighbor is that it employs links existing between neighbors of a common-neighbor and these links have the same structural position with the candidate link to this common-neighbor. In our experiments, three estimators: precision, AUP and AUC are used to evaluate the accuracy of link prediction algorithms. Experimental results on ten tested networks drawn from various fields show that our new index is more effective in predicting missing links than CAR index, especially for networks with low correlation between number of common-neighbors and number of links between common-neighbors.

  9. Emission allowances -- Long-term price trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennox, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Estimated trends in emission allowance (EA) values have been of interest to all those affected by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 since it became law in 1990. The authors published estimates of the values of EAs in December 1991, and revised their estimate in November 1992. The summary trends of the 1992 estimate is shown here. General estimates such as these are no longer useful. Everyone directly involved in complying with the Act or in buying and selling allowances has developed their own outlook on EA values. Many recent trades have been publicized. The prices from the first auction are also well known. Therefore this article is concerned only with what might happening the long-run. Once Phase 2 compliance is essentially complete and emissions roughly match Emission Allowance allocations of some 9.8 million tons annually, what pressures will there be on prices? What will be the direction of values after Phase 2 is in balance?

  10. On the Nature of Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2010-01-01

    A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

  11. Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

  12. Rainfall measurement using cell phone links

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schip, van het T.I.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Meirink, J.F.; Delden, van A.J.

    2017-01-01

    Commercial cellular telecommunication networks can be used for rainfall estimation by measuring the attenuation of electromagnetic signals transmitted between antennas from microwave links. However, as the received link signal may also decrease during dry periods, a method to separate wet and dry

  13. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  14. Computer architecture technology trends

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

  15. Linked data management

    CERN Document Server

    Hose, Katja; Schenkel, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    Linked Data Management presents techniques for querying and managing Linked Data that is available on today’s Web. The book shows how the abundance of Linked Data can serve as fertile ground for research and commercial applications. The text focuses on aspects of managing large-scale collections of Linked Data. It offers a detailed introduction to Linked Data and related standards, including the main principles distinguishing Linked Data from standard database technology. Chapters also describe how to generate links between datasets and explain the overall architecture of data integration systems based on Linked Data. A large part of the text is devoted to query processing in different setups. After presenting methods to publish relational data as Linked Data and efficient centralized processing, the book explores lookup-based, distributed, and parallel solutions. It then addresses advanced topics, such as reasoning, and discusses work related to read-write Linked Data for system interoperation. Desp...

  16. Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette

    2014-12-01

    Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary sugars intake. Only thirteen countries (all in the developed world) appear to report estimates of sugars intake from national nutrition surveys at more than one point in time. Definitions of dietary sugars that were used include 'total sugars', 'non-milk extrinsic sugars', 'added sugars', sucrose' and 'mono- and disaccharides'. This variability in terminology across countries meant that comparisons were limited to within countries. Hence trends in dietary sugars intake were examined by country for the whole population (where data permitted), and for specific or combined age and sex subpopulations. Findings indicate that in the majority of population comparisons, estimated dietary sugars intake is either stable or decreasing in both absolute (g/d) and relative (% energy) terms. An increase in sugars intake was observed in few countries and only in specific subpopulations. In conclusion, the findings from the present review suggest that, in the main, dietary sugars intake are decreasing or stable. A consistent approach to estimation of dietary sugars intake from national nutrition surveys is required if more valid estimates of changes in dietary sugars intakes are required in the future.

  17. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  18. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  19. Daily atmospheric radionuclide observations and health impact estimation before and after the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear accident: Five-year trends by Canadian monitoring stations - Ten-year trends of atmospheric lead-210 and the correlation to atmospheric mercury in the Canadian Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Weihua; Chen, Jing; Ungar, Kurt [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, 775 Brookfield Rd. Ottawa, K1A 1C1 (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Mercury is a global threat to human and environmental health. Anthropogenic emissions of mercury have been larger than natural emissions since the start of the industrial age about 200 years ago. In the past decades, many studies have focused on monitoring and controlling anthropogenic emissions of mercury and their transport and transformation in the environment. In October 2013, the Minamata Convention on Mercury was formally adopted as international law. The new treaty aims to further cut mercury emissions and releases; it is the first global convention on environment and health. Coal burning for power generation and industrial use is one of the major sources of anthropogenic mercury emissions to the air. However, coal combustion processes produce significant quantities of dust containing not only mercury but also natural radionuclides that are released into the atmosphere. Like the case of mercury, those radionuclides can be transported over long distances, deposited on soil and oceans and accumulated in Arctic biota. Exposure to elevated levels of radiation is a health concern. This study analyses long-term trends of atmospheric lead-210 from Health Canada's radiological monitoring stations in the Arctic. Results are compared with ten-year records of atmospheric mercury reported by Environment Canada. A discussion is given on the correlation of long-range atmospheric transport of lead-210 and mercury from industrial sources, such as coal burning. It is expected that continuous decline of atmospheric mercury in the Arctic, especially with more and more countries signing the Minamata Convention, will result in a deceasing trend of atmospheric lead-210 from industrial sources as well. (authors)

  20. Psycho-oncology in India: Emerging trends from Kerala

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkateswaran Chitra

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is estimated that around 2.5 million people suffer from cancer at any given time in India. Almost 80% of patients reach hospitals in advanced stages of the disease. The majority needs palliative care, whereas only a minority of the needy receives this input. The challenge in the developing world is to evolve a culturally and socio-economically appropriate and acceptable system of care, while addressing psychosocial issues along with long-term care needs, that is accessible to the majority of those who need it. The evolution of a specific service for psychosocial care for persons and families started in the 1970s, initial work focusing mainly on research. Contributions from persons in varied topics have been outlined. Only a few organized clinical services function as part of large tertiary hospitals, oncology centers or palliative care units. The emerging trend in Northern Kerala is based on an integrated service linking training, clinical services and research activities which are linked at several levels, involving volunteers in the community. Future hopes lie in developing core groups; establishing specific clinical services liaising with cancer care teams, large scale research projects and discussion with policy makers to develop guidelines at national level.

  1. Patterns and trends of potentially inappropriate high-density lipoprotein cholesterol testing in Australian adults at high risk of cardiovascular disease from 2008 to 2014: analysis of linked individual patient data from the Australian Medicare Benefits Schedule and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajati, Farshid; Atlantis, Evan; Bell, Katy J L; Girosi, Federico

    2018-03-08

    We examine the extent to which the adult Australian population on lipid-lowering medications receives the level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) testing recommended by national guidelines. We analysed records from 7 years (2008-2014) of the 10% publicly available sample of deidentified, individual level, linked Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) electronic databases of Australia. The PBS data were used to identify individuals on stable prescriptions of lipid-lowering treatment. The MBS data were used to estimate the annual frequency of HDL-C testing. We developed a methodology to address the issue of 'episode coning' in the MBS data, which causes an undercounting of pathology tests. We used a published figure on the proportion of unreported HDL-C tests to correct for the undercounting and estimate the probability that an HDL-C test was performed. We judged appropriateness of testing frequency by comparing the HDL-C testing rate to guidelines' recommendations of annual testing for people at high risk for cardiovascular disease. We estimated that approximately 49% of the population on stable lipid-lowering treatment did not receive any HDL-C test in a given year. We also found that approximately 19% of the same population received two or more HDL-C tests within the year. These levels of underutilisation and overutilisation have been changing at an average rate of 2% and -4% a year, respectively, since 2009. The yearly expenditure associated with test overutilisation was approximately $A4.3 million during the study period, while the cost averted because of test underutilisation was approximately $A11.3 million a year. We found that approximately half of Australians on stable lipid-lowering treatment may be having fewer HDL-C testing than recommended by national guidelines, while nearly one-fifth are having more tests than recommended. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text

  2. Women Scientists and Engineers: Trends in Participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Betty M.

    1981-01-01

    Examines trends in participation of women in science and engineering over the past decade and estimates changes during the 1980s. Focuses on educational attainment, employment status and sector, and salaries, and indicates a gap in salaries and career opportunities between men and women. (JN)

  3. Trends in mobile satellite communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johannsen, Klaus G.; Bowles, Mike W.; Milliken, Samuel; Cherrette, Alan R.; Busche, Gregory C.

    1993-01-01

    Ever since the U.S. Federal Communication Commission opened the discussion on spectrum usage for personal handheld communication, the community of satellite manufacturers has been searching for an economically viable and technically feasible satellite mobile communication system. Hughes Aircraft Company and others have joined in providing proposals for such systems, ranging from low to medium to geosynchronous orbits. These proposals make it clear that the trend in mobile satellite communication is toward more sophisticated satellites with a large number of spot beams and onboard processing, providing worldwide interconnectivity. Recent Hughes studies indicate that from a cost standpoint the geosynchronous satellite (GEOS) is most economical, followed by the medium earth orbit satellite (MEOS) and then by the low earth orbit satellite (LEOS). From a system performance standpoint, this evaluation may be in reverse order, depending on how the public will react to speech delay and collision. This paper discusses the trends and various mobile satellite constellations in satellite communication under investigation. It considers the effect of orbital altitude and modulation/multiple access on the link and spacecraft design.

  4. 2011 NAEP-TIMSS Linking Study: Linking Methodologies and Their Evaluations. NCES 2013-469

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Center for Education Statistics, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The 2011 NAEP-TIMSS linking study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) was designed to predict Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) scores for the U.S. states that participated in 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) mathematics and science assessment of eighth-grade students.…

  5. Healthy food trends -- flaxseeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... seeds; Healthy food trends - linseeds; Healthy snacks - flaxseeds; Healthy diet - flaxseeds; Wellness - flaxseeds ... of nutrition and dietetics: dietary fatty acids for healthy adults. J Acad Nutr Diet . 2014;114(1):136-153. PMID: 24342605 www. ...

  6. Health Plans - Trend Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This page contains several useful trend and competition indicators. Certain files will be updated monthly while others will be updated quarterly. The files are the...

  7. Healthy food trends - kale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy food trends - borecole; Healthy snacks - kale; Weight loss - kale; Healthy diet - kale; Wellness - kale ... Kale is full of vitamins and minerals, including: Vitamin A Vitamin C Vitamin K If you take ...

  8. Dismantling technologies trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devaux, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this work dismantling technologies trends realized by the CEA are reviewed. There following technologies are presented: Data acquisition from facilities; Scenario studies; Remote handling and carriers; Dismantling techniques; Decontamination.

  9. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  10. World trends from 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  11. Trends in communications satellites

    CERN Document Server

    Curtin, Denis J

    1979-01-01

    Trends in Communications Satellites offers a comprehensive look at trends and advances in satellite communications, including experimental ones such as NASA satellites and those jointly developed by France and Germany. The economic aspects of communications satellites are also examined. This book consists of 16 chapters and begins with a discussion on the fundamentals of electrical communications and their application to space communications, including spacecraft, earth stations, and orbit and wavelength utilization. The next section demonstrates how successful commercial satellite communicati

  12. Trends in Business Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Lydon, Reamonn; Scally, John

    2014-01-01

    This article examines trends in business investment in Ireland. Consistent with the international evidence on investment cycles, we show that business investment in Ireland exhibits large cyclical movements around a long-run trend relative to GDP. Changes in business investment broadly coincide with the overall business cycle, although swings in investment tend to be far greater, with extended periods of both over- and under-investment relative to GDP. The sharp fall in business investment si...

  13. Trends in picture communication

    OpenAIRE

    Speidel, Joachim

    1993-01-01

    In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

  14. Analysis of gravity data using trend surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimopolos, Natalia-Silvia; Asimopolos, Laurentiu

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we have developed algorithms and related software programs for calculating of trend surfaces of higher order. These methods of analysis of trends, like mobile media applications are filtration systems for geophysical data in surface. In particular we presented few case studies for gravity data and gravity maps. Analysis with polynomial trend surfaces contributes to the recognition, isolation and measurement of trends that can be represented by surfaces or hyper-surfaces (in several sizes), thus achieving a separation in regional variations and local variations. This separation is achieved by adjusting the trend function at different values. Trend surfaces using the regression analysis satisfy the criterion of least squares. The difference between the surface of trend and the observed value in a certain point is the residual value. Residual sum of squares of these values should be minimal as the criterion of least squares. The trend surface is considered as regional or large-scale and the residual value will be regarded as local or small-scale component. Removing the regional trend has the effect of highlighting local components represented by residual values. Surface analysis and hyper-surfaces principles are applied to the surface trend and any number of dimensions. For hyper-surfaces we can work with polynomial functions with four or more variables (three variables of space and other variables for interest parameters) that have great importance in some applications. In the paper we presented the mathematical developments about generalized trend surfaces and case studies about gravimetric data. The trend surfaces have the great advantage that the effect of regional anomalies can be expressed as analytic functions. These tendency surfaces allows subsequent mathematical processing and interesting generalizations, with great advantage to work with polynomial functions compared with the original discrete data. For gravity data we estimate the depth of

  15. Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2015-07-01

    Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

  16. Trends in Job Quality during the Great Recession

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erhel, Christine; Guergoat-Larivière, Mathilde; Leschke, Janine

    and country-level characteristics (institutions and business-cycle indicators) to a possible deterioration in job quality. It shows that some socio-economic groups are more affected by decreasing trends in job quality (other things being equal), especially youth, older workers and low-educated workers. Women......This paper focuses on the consequences of the crisis on job quality in Europe. Its aim is twofold: first, to identify trends in job quality in the EU during the 2007-2009 crisis; secondly, to explore the link between these trends and cyclical as well as institutional factors. It relies on European...... seem less affected by these negative trends than men but are more likely than men to become unemployed or inactive over the period. Cross-country heterogeneity in job quality trends can be related to economic trends (unemployment variation) and, to a minor extent, to the employment distribution...

  17. Project Cost Estimation for Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

  18. SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING FOR NON - LINEAR TREND IN MILK YIELD DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Tanuj Kumar Pandey; Vinod Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The present paper utilizes systematic sampling procedures for milk yield data exhibiting some non-linear trends. The best fitted mathematical forms of non-linear trend present in the milk yield data are obtained and the expressions of average variances of the estimators of population mean under simple random, usual systematic and modified systematic sampling procedures have been derived for populations showing non-linear trend. A comparative study is made among the three sampli...

  19. Dual scale trend analysis for evaluating climatic and anthropogenic effects on the vegetated land surface in Russia and Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 107 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Wright, C K; Henebry, G M, E-mail: kdebeurs@vt.ed, E-mail: christopher.wright@sdstate.ed, E-mail: geoffrey.henebry@sdstate.ed [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, 1021 Medary Avenue, Wecota Hall 506B, Brookings, SD 57007-3510 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present a dual scale trend analysis for characterizing and comparing two contrasting areas of change in Russia and Kazakhstan that lie less than 800 km apart. We selected a global NASA MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) product (MCD43C4 and MCD43A4) at a 0.05 deg. ({approx}5.6 km) and 500 m spatial resolution and a 16-day temporal resolution from 2000 to 2008. We applied a refinement of the seasonal Kendall trend method to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image series at both scales. We only incorporated composites during the vegetative growing season which was delineated by start of season and end of season estimates based on analysis of normalized difference infrared index data. Trend patterns on two scales pointed to drought as the proximal cause of significant declines in NDVI in Kazakhstan. In contrast, the area of increasing NDVI trend in Russia was linked through the dual scale analysis with agricultural land cover change. The coarser scale analysis was relevant to atmospheric boundary layer processes, while the finer scale data revealed trends that were more relevant to human decision-making and regional economics.

  20. Dual scale trend analysis for evaluating climatic and anthropogenic effects on the vegetated land surface in Russia and Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Beurs, K M; Wright, C K; Henebry, G M

    2009-01-01

    We present a dual scale trend analysis for characterizing and comparing two contrasting areas of change in Russia and Kazakhstan that lie less than 800 km apart. We selected a global NASA MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) product (MCD43C4 and MCD43A4) at a 0.05 deg. (∼5.6 km) and 500 m spatial resolution and a 16-day temporal resolution from 2000 to 2008. We applied a refinement of the seasonal Kendall trend method to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image series at both scales. We only incorporated composites during the vegetative growing season which was delineated by start of season and end of season estimates based on analysis of normalized difference infrared index data. Trend patterns on two scales pointed to drought as the proximal cause of significant declines in NDVI in Kazakhstan. In contrast, the area of increasing NDVI trend in Russia was linked through the dual scale analysis with agricultural land cover change. The coarser scale analysis was relevant to atmospheric boundary layer processes, while the finer scale data revealed trends that were more relevant to human decision-making and regional economics.

  1. Dynamic link: user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, Hiroo; Asai, Kiyoshi; Kihara, Kazuhisa.

    1981-09-01

    The purpose of dynamic link facility is to link a load module dynamically only when it is used in execution time. The facility is very useful for development, execution and maintenance of a large scale computer program which is too big to be saved as one load module in main memory, or it is poor economy to save it due to many unused subroutines depending on an input. It is also useful for standardization and common utilization of programs. Standard usage of dynamic link facility of FACOM M-200 computer system, a software tool which analyzes the effect of dynamic link facility and application of dynamic link to nuclear codes are described. (author)

  2. Trends in hospital admissions for sunburn in Western Australia, 1988 to 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duke, Janine; Wood, Fiona; Semmens, James; Edgar, Dale W; Rea, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the trends in hospitalization for sunburn in Western Australia from 1988 to 2008. De-identified linked hospital morbidity data for all index sunburn admissions in Western Australia for the period 1988 to 2008 were analyzed. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate trends in hospital admissions. Hospitalizations increased from 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-2.2) per 100 000 person years in 1988 to 2.7 (95% CI = 1.9-3.4) per 100 000 person years in 1997, declining thereafter to 1.5 (95% CI = 1.0-2.0) per 100 000 person years in 2008. Increased hospitalizations rates were estimated for adults 25 to 44 years and 65 years or older, with a significant decline estimated for children younger than 5 years; rates remained stable for all other age groups. This study found no significant overall reduction in sunburn hospitalizations over the 20-year study period. raise concerns about the sun-protective behaviors and skin cancer risk of the population in Western Australia.

  3. NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  4. Quantitative Communication Research: Review, Trends, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy R. Levine

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Trends in quantitative communication research are reviewed. A content analysis of 48 articles reporting original communication research published in 1988-1991 and 2008-2011 is reported. Survey research and self-report measurement remain common approaches to research. Null hypothesis significance testing remains the dominant approach to statistical analysis. Reporting the shapes of distributions, estimates of statistical power, and confidence intervals remain uncommon. Trends over time include the increased popularity of health communication and computer mediated communication as topics of research, and increased attention to mediator and moderator variables. The implications of these practices for scientific progress are critically discussed, and suggestions for the future are provided.

  5. Visualisierung von typisierten Links in Linked Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Neubauer

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Das Themengebiet der Arbeit behandelt Visualisierungen von typisierten Links in Linked Data. Die wissenschaftlichen Gebiete, die im Allgemeinen den Inhalt des Beitrags abgrenzen, sind das Semantic Web, das Web of Data und Informationsvisualisierung. Das Semantic Web, das von Tim Berners Lee 2001 erfunden wurde, stellt eine Erweiterung zum World Wide Web (Web 2.0 dar. Aktuelle Forschungen beziehen sich auf die Verknüpfbarkeit von Informationen im World Wide Web. Um es zu ermöglichen, solche Verbindungen wahrnehmen und verarbeiten zu können sind Visualisierungen die wichtigsten Anforderungen als Hauptteil der Datenverarbeitung. Im Zusammenhang mit dem Sematic Web werden Repräsentationen von zuhammenhängenden Informationen anhand von Graphen gehandhabt. Der Grund des Entstehens dieser Arbeit ist in erster Linie die Beschreibung der Gestaltung von Linked Data-Visualisierungskonzepten, deren Prinzipien im Rahmen einer theoretischen Annäherung eingeführt werden. Anhand des Kontexts führt eine schrittweise Erweiterung der Informationen mit dem Ziel, praktische Richtlinien anzubieten, zur Vernetzung dieser ausgearbeiteten Gestaltungsrichtlinien. Indem die Entwürfe zweier alternativer Visualisierungen einer standardisierten Webapplikation beschrieben werden, die Linked Data als Netzwerk visualisiert, konnte ein Test durchgeführt werden, der deren Kompatibilität zum Inhalt hatte. Der praktische Teil behandelt daher die Designphase, die Resultate, und zukünftige Anforderungen des Projektes, die durch die Testung ausgearbeitet wurden.

  6. Temporal trends in sperm count

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson

    2017-01-01

    a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years.......006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because......BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression...

  7. What can Google and Wikipedia can tell us about a disease? Big Data trends analysis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciascia, Savino; Radin, Massimo

    2017-11-01

    To investigate trends of Internet search volumes linked to Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), on-going clinical trials and research developments associated to the disease, using Big Data monitoring and data mining. We performed a longitudinal analysis based on the large amount of data generated by Google Trends, scientific search tools (SCOPUS, Medline/Pubmed/ClinicalTrails.gov) considering 'SLE', and 'lupus' in a 5-year web-based research. Wikipedia page views were also analysed using WikiTrends and the results were compared with the search volumes generated by Google Trends. We observed an overall higher distribution of search volumes from Google Trends in United States, South America, Canada, South Africa, Australia and Europe (mainly Italy, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Germany), showing a geographically heterogeneity in insight into health-related behaviour of the different populations towards SLE. By comparing the search volumes analysing the Wikipedia page views of both SLE and belimumab, we found a close peak trend, reflecting the knowledge translation after the approval of belimumab for the treatment of SLE. When focusing on search volumes of Google Trends, we noticed that the highest peaks were related to news headlines that involved celebrities affected by SLE, also when comparing to the peak generated by the approval of belimumab. This new approach, able to investigate health information seeking, might give an estimate of the health-related demand and even of the health-related behaviour of SLE, bringing new light to unanswered questions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Linking open vocabularies

    CERN Document Server

    Greifender, Elke; Seadle, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Linked Data (LD), Linked Open Data (LOD) and generating a web of data, present the new knowledge sharing frontier. In a philosophical context, LD is an evolving environment that reflects humankinds' desire to understand the world by drawing on the latest technologies and capabilities of the time. LD, while seemingly a new phenomenon did not emerge overnight; rather it represents the natural progression by which knowledge structures are developed, used, and shared. Linked Open Vocabularies is a significant trajectory of LD. Linked Open Vocabularies targets vocabularies that have traditionally b

  9. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  10. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  11. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  12. Evolutionary trends in Heteroptera

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, R.H.

    1968-01-01

    1. This work, the first volume of a series dealing with evolutionary trends in Heteroptera, is concerned with the egg system of about 400 species. The data are presented systematically in chapters 1 and 2 with a critical review of the literature after each family.

    2. Chapter 3 evaluates facts

  13. Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Carl F.

    A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

  14. Summary of Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Summary of Trends. Optical Ethernet: Direct Ethernet connectivity to businesses through optical fiber. Automation of network infrastructure: Cross-connects for interconnections; Intelligence through software for OA&M. New “data-centric” protection mechanisms ...

  15. Trends in corporate greening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    , if a general change of attitude has taken place in the business community or if companies just comply with the required minimum standard set by legislation. Based on a series of surveys this paper reports on the trends in implementing corporate environmental management in Danish industry up till the entrance...... of the new millennium in order to indicate how practice has evolved....

  16. [Development trend of nanomedicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kumiko

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnology has had a great impact on science, technology, and society since 2000, and its applications in medicine are also progressing in the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease. In this review, international trends in nanomedicine regulation are introduced, including the definition of nanomedicines and the evaluation of liposomes and iron nanoparticles.

  17. Marketing for Camp Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Alicia

    1998-01-01

    To effectively market a camp, current trends and issues must be considered: specialty programming, the Americans With Disabilities Act, competing recreational programs, changes in the school year, programming for seniors, and accountability. Camps should have a marketing strategy that includes public relations, a marketing plan, a pricing…

  18. Trends in African philosophy

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    JONATHAN

    In the contention of Oladipo (2006), the debate on the idea of. African philosophy which has been divided into trends or schools, dates back to the 1960's and 70's, which constitute the modern epoch of African philosophy, when some African thinkers began to question the perspective that traditional African beliefs and.

  19. Technological trends in automobiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, E J; Compton, W D

    1984-08-10

    Current technological trends in the automotive industry reflect many diverse disciplines. Electronics and microprocessors, new engine transmission concepts, composite and ceramic materials, and computer-aided design and manufacture will combine to make possible the creation of advanced automobiles offering outstanding quality, fuel economy, and performance. A projected "average" vehicle of the 1990's is described to illustrate the application of these new concepts.

  20. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  1. Cotton trends in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

  2. Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlleben, T.; Tivy, A.; Stroeve, J.; Meier, Walter N.; Fetterer, F.; Wang, J.; Assel, R.

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

  3. Let's "Downscale" Linked Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gueret, C.D.M.; de Boer, V.; Schlobach, K.S.

    2014-01-01

    Open data policies and linked data publication are powerful tools for increasing transparency, participatory governance, and accountability. The linked data community proudly emphasizes the economic and societal impact such technology shows. But a closer look proves that the design and deployment of

  4. Let's "Downscale" Linked Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gueret, Christophe; de Boer, Victor; Schlobach, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Open data policies and linked data publication are powerful tools for increasing transparency, participatory governance, and accountability. A closer look at linked data technologies, however, proves that their design and deployment exclude the majority of the world’s population. It will take small

  5. Weierstrass polynomials for links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Vagn Lundsgaard

    1997-01-01

    There is a natural way of identifying links in3-space with polynomial covering spaces over thecircle. Thereby any link in 3-space can be definedby a Weierstrass polynomial over the circle. Theequivalence relation for covering spaces over thecircle is, however, completely different from...

  6. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  7. Estimativas de parâmetros e tendências genéticas para algumas características de importância econômica em linhagem paterna de frangos de corte sob seleção Estimates of genetic parameters and trends for performance traits in paternal broiler lineages under selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stela Adami Vayego

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimativas dos parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos de algumas características produtivas em linhagem paterna de matrizes de frango de corte foram obtidas utilizando-se a metodologia de modelos mistos. Utilizaram-se dados de aproximadamente 46.000 aves, originados de 12 gerações no período de 1992 a 2003, fornecidos pela EMBRAPA Suínos e aves. Nos machos foram avaliadas as características peso corporal aos 42 dias de idade (P42, comprimento de peito (CPeito, largura maior do peito (Larg1 e largura menor do peito (Larg2 aos 42 dias de idade. Os componentes de variância e co-variância foram estimados utilizando-se o programa DFREML. As estimativas de herdabilidade obtidas foram moderadas e variaram de 0,29 a 0,53. As correlações genéticas foram: 0,68 entre P42 e CPeito; 0,65 entre P42 e Larg1; 0,48 entre P42 e Larg2. O estudo da tendência genética das características indicou que progresso genético está sendo obtido.Estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters for performance traits in paternal broiler lineages selected during 12 generations were obtained through mixed models methodology. Data consisting of body weight (P42, breast length (CPeito, largest (Larg1 and smallest (Larg2 breast widths recorded at 42 days of age in approximately 46,000 birds between 1992 and 2003 provided by CNPSA/EMBRAPA were used to estimate (covariances by REML. The heritability estimates were moderate, ranging from 0.29 to 0.53. Genetic correlations estimates between P42 and CPeito, Larg1 and Larg2 were 0.68, 0.65 and 0.48 respectively. Genetic trend estimates indicate that progress has been obtained by selection on the performance traits.

  8. Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Córdoba, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Osella, Alberto Rubén; Eynard, Aldo Renato; Niclis, Camila; Diaz, María del Pilar

    2009-12-01

    Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide for men and women, and one of the most commonly diagnosed in Córdoba, Argentina. The aim of this work was to provide an up-to-date approach to descriptive epidemiology of colorectal cancer in Córdoba throughout the estimation of mortality trends in the period 1986-2006, using Joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) models. Age-standardized (world population) mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated and Joinpoint regression performed to compute the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Poisson sequential models were fitted to estimate the effect of age (11 age groups), period (1986-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000 or 2001-2006) and cohort (13 ten-years cohorts overlapping each other by five-years) on colorectal cancer mortality rates. ASMR showed an overall significant decrease (EAPC -0.9 95%CI: -1.7, -0.2) for women, being more noticeable from 1996 onwards (EAPC -2.1 95%CI: -4.0, -0.1). Age-effect showed an important rise in both sexes, but more evident in males. Birth cohort- and period effects reflected increasing and decreasing tendencies for men and women, respectively. Differences in mortality rates were found according to sex and could be related to age-period-cohort effects linked to the ageing process, health care and lifestyle. Further research is needed to elucidate the specific age-, period- and cohort-related factors.

  9. Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, M Alisa

    2013-11-01

    The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970-2010 and 1990-2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO₂ emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

  10. Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, M. Alisa

    2013-01-01

    The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970–2010 and 1990–2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO2 emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

  11. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Andersen, Lars Bo; Bugge, Anna

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes...... in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes...... prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes...

  12. Future trends in global blindness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Resnikoff

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

  13. Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos e de tendência fenotípica, genética e de ambiente de algumas características reprodutivas na raça Gir Estimates of genetic parameters and phenotypic, genetic and environmental trends of some reproductive traits in Gir cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.S. Balieiro

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo do estudo foi estimar os parâmetros e as tendências fenotípica, genética e ambiental para idade ao primeiro parto (IPP e intervalo de partos (IDP na raça Gir, com o emprego de análises uni e bivariadas sob o método da máxima verossimilhança restrita, por meio de algoritmo livre de derivadas (MTDFREML, que ajusta o modelo animal. O modelo matemático adotado para estudo do IDP incluiu os efeitos fixos rebanho-ano de parto, época de parto e idade da vaca ao parto como covariável e os efeitos aleatórios de animal e ambiente permanente. Para a IPP, o modelo incluiu os efeitos fixos rebanho-ano de nascimento e época de nascimento e efeito de animal como aleatório. Por meio de análises bivariadas, as estimativas de herdabilidade foram 0,17 para IPP e 0,06 para IDP. A estimativa de repetibilidade para IDP foi 0,17. As correlações fenotípica, genética e de ambiente entre IPP e IDP foram, respectivamente, 0,06, 0,37 e 0,03. As mudanças anuais fenotípica, genética e de ambiente para IPP foram, respectivamente, -0,446±0,077 (PThe aims of the present study were to estimate genetic parameters, as well as phenotypic, genetic and environmental trends for age at first calving (AFC and calving intervals (CI on Gyr dairy breed, using a multivariate derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood (MTDFREML with an animal model. The mathematic model for calving interval included herd-year of calving, calving season, and the covariate age of cow as fixed effects, and animal, and permanent environment as random effects. The model for age at first calving included herd-year of birth and season of birth as fixed effects, and animal as random effect. Through the bivariate analyses, estimates of heritability were: for age at first calving 0.17 and for calving interval 0.06. The estimate of repeatability for calving interval was 0.17. The phenotypic, genetic and environmental correlations between age at first calving and calving interval

  14. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  15. Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes research to develop risk-based indicators of plant safety performance. One measure of the safety-performance of operating nuclear power plants is the unavailability of important safety systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory and Science Applications International Corporation are evaluating ways to aggregate train-level or component-level data to provide such an indicator. This type of indicator would respond to changes in plant safety margins faster than the currently used indicator of safety system unavailability (i.e., safety system failures reported in licensee event reports). Trends in the proposed indicator would be one indication of trends in plant safety performance and maintenance effectiveness. This paper summarizes the basis for such an indicator, identifies technical issues to be resolved, and illustrates the potential usefullness of such indicators by means of computer simulations and case studies

  16. FEOL technology trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taur, Y.; Ning, T.H.

    1998-01-01

    Trends in front-end-of-line technology are discussed. At the chip level, many of the important parameters are published in the National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors in 1994. At the device and circuit level, both bipolar and CMOS are scalable. However, the large standby power of bipolar circuits severely limits the integration level of bipolar chips. The inherently low standby power of CMOS, on the contrary, allows the integration level of CMOS circuits to continue increasing with scaling. In reality, both the electric field and power density of CMOS devices have been gradually rising over the generations owing to non-scaling effects of thermal voltage and silicon bandgap. As power supply voltage reaches 1.5V and below, circuit performance can only be gained at the expense of higher active or standby power of the chip. Implications of device scaling on contact and silicide technology are addressed. Trends of local and global interconnect scaling are discussed. (orig.)

  17. Estimated genetic trends for weaning weight in three Dorper lines ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was undertakent o compare the effectivenesso f threed ifferent selections trategiesin increasingw eaning weight of a Dorper flock under natural conditions. Data were analysed by mixed model procedures. Direct selection for weaning weight under natural conditionsp roved to be effective.S electiono n breeds ...

  18. Trends in radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastham, James; Tokuda, Yuji; Scardino, Peter

    2009-02-01

    The surgical treatment of prostate cancer ideally removes the entire cancer, avoids excessive blood loss or serious perioperative complications, and results in complete recovery of continence and potency. To achieve this, the surgeon must excise sufficient periprostatic tissue to cure the cancer while preserving the cavernosal nerves required for erectile function and the neuromusculature required for normal urinary and bowel function. Here we will examine recent trends in radical prostatectomy, focusing on surgical technique.

  19. [Recent demographic trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    A review of demographic trends in Luxembourg in 1982 is presented. A decline in fertility, the first since 1977, is noted, together with an increase in divorce, as well as a negative migration balance for the first time since 1967. Topics covered include natural increase and migration, fertility, marriage and divorce, mortality, adoption, and legislation affecting the family. Special consideration is given to the mortality experience of those who were subjected to compulsory labor during World War II.

  20. Trends in Mobile Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Chocholová, Petra

    2010-01-01

    The principal aim of this thesis is to assess the state of the mobile marketing as of the first quarter of 2011 and to discuss various scenarios of the future development. This thesis defines the terms "mobile marketing" and "mobile advertising" and identifies the main players in the industry. It explores the main categories of mobile advertising such as mobile messaging, in-content and mobile internet advertising. Later, it analyzes the latest trends in the industry and describes in detail t...

  1. Recent Trends in Counterfeiting

    OpenAIRE

    Arianna Cowling

    2011-01-01

    Under the Reserve Bank Act 1959, the Reserve Bank has sole authority to issue banknotes in Australia. As such, a key responsibility of the Reserve Bank is to maintain public confidence in banknotes, so that they remain an effective payment mechanism and a secure store of wealth. This article examines how counterfeiting can impact on this confidence, and counterfeiting trends in Australia and overseas. The article also discusses the strategies the Reserve Bank employs to minimise the risks of ...

  2. Trends in Internet Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Panchanathan, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

  3. Cancer Related-Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates are produced using statistical models that combine data from the Health Information National Trends Survey, and auxiliary variables obtained from relevant sources and borrow strength from other areas with similar characteristics.

  4. Extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Devon D; Dudek, Jonathan A; Potterat, John J; Muth, Stephen Q; Roberts, John M; Woodhouse, Donald E

    2006-09-01

    Prostitute women have the highest homicide victimization rate of any set of women ever studied. We analyzed nine diverse homicide data sets to examine the extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States. Most data sources substantially under-ascertained prostitute homicides. As estimated from a conservative capture-recapture analysis, 2.7% of female homicide victims in the United States between 1982 and 2000 were prostitutes. Frequencies of recorded prostitute and client homicides increased substantially in the late 1980s and early 1990s; nearly all of the few observed pimp homicides occurred before the late 1980s. These trends may be linked to the rise of crack cocaine use. Prostitutes were killed primarily by clients, clients were killed mainly by prostitutes, and pimps were killed predominantly by pimps. Another conservative estimate suggests that serial killers accounted for 35% of prostitute homicides. Proactive surveillance of, and evidence collection from, clients and prostitutes might enhance the investigation of prostitution-related homicide.

  5. Link to paper

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Link to the paper. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Naile, J., A.W. Garrison, J. Avants, and J. Washington. Isomers/enantiomers of...

  6. The Missing Link

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Laura Luise

    2014-01-01

    Paper presented at A Valentine to Gertrude Stein. The Reception of Gertrude Stein in the Arts and Humanities, held at the University of Copenhagen 8. - 10. May 2014, in collaboration with the universities of Ghent and Linköping......Paper presented at A Valentine to Gertrude Stein. The Reception of Gertrude Stein in the Arts and Humanities, held at the University of Copenhagen 8. - 10. May 2014, in collaboration with the universities of Ghent and Linköping...

  7. TREND MECHANISMS IN CONTEMPORARY FASHION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch.......Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch....

  8. Using Google Trends for influenza surveillance in South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min; Zhong, Haojie; He, Jianfeng; Rutherford, Shannon; Yang, Fen

    2013-01-01

    Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate influenza activity in many countries; however there is currently no Google Flu Trends or other Internet search data used for influenza surveillance in China. Influenza surveillance data from 2008 through 2011 were obtained from provincial CDC influenza-like illness and virological surveillance systems of Guangdong, a province in south China. Internet search data were downloaded from the website of Google Trends. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data and internet search trends. The correlation between CDC ILI surveillance and CDC virus surveillance was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.66). The strongest correlation was between the Google Trends term of Fever and ILI surveillance with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.79). When compared with influenza virological surveillance, the Google Trends term of Influenza A had the strongest correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.79) in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic period. This study shows that Google Trends in Chinese can be used as a complementary source of data for influenza surveillance in south China. More research in the future should develop new models using search trends in Chinese language to estimate local disease activity and detect early signals of outbreaks.

  9. Trends and Features of Student Research Integration in Educational Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinenko, Svetlana; Makarova, Elena; Andreassen, John-Erik

    2016-01-01

    This study examines trends and features of student research integration in educational program during international cooperation between Østfold University College in Norway and Southern Federal University in Russia. According to research and education approach the international project is aimed to use four education models, which linked student…

  10. The modern trends in radiochemistry and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, I.M.; Furnari, J.C.

    2012-01-01

    The utilization of Radiochemistry and Nuclear Chemistry is described, particularly with respect to nuclear analytical techniques and radioisotope applications in several fields. Especially, and in connections with the recent advances of Nuclear Medicine, the present contributions of Radiopharmacy, linked to both diagnostic and therapeutic methods, are outlined. The modern trends and their future are discussed. (authors). [es

  11. Estimating light-vehicle sales in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ufuk Demiroğlu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper is motivated by the surprising rapid growth of new light-vehicle sales in Turkey in 2015. Domestic sales grew 25%, dramatically surpassing the industry estimates of around 8%. Our approach is to inform the sales trend estimate with the information obtained from the light-vehicle stock (the number of cars and light trucks officially registered in the country, and the scrappage data. More specifically, we improve the sales trend estimate by estimating the trend of its stock. Using household data, we show that an important reason for the rapid sales growth is that an increasing share of household budgets is spent on automobile purchases. The elasticity of light-vehicle sales to cyclical changes in aggregate demand is high and robust; its estimates are around 6 with a standard deviation of about 0.5. The price elasticity of light-vehicle sales is estimated to be about 0.8, but the estimates are imprecise and not robust. We estimate the trend level of light-vehicle sales to be roughly 7 percent of the existing stock. A remarkable out-of-sample forecast performance is obtained for horizons up to nearly a decade by a regression equation using only a cyclical gap measure, the time trend and obvious policy dummies. Various specifications suggest that the strong 2015 growth of light-vehicle sales was predictable in late 2014.

  12. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2014-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  13. Linked Ocean Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leadbetter, Adam; Arko, Robert; Chandler, Cynthia; Shepherd, Adam

    2014-05-01

    "Linked Data" is a term used in Computer Science to encapsulate a methodology for publishing data and metadata in a structured format so that links may be created and exploited between objects. Berners-Lee (2006) outlines the following four design principles of a Linked Data system: Use Uniform Resource Identifiers (URIs) as names for things. Use HyperText Transfer Protocol (HTTP) URIs so that people can look up those names. When someone looks up a URI, provide useful information, using the standards (Resource Description Framework [RDF] and the RDF query language [SPARQL]). Include links to other URIs so that they can discover more things. In 2010, Berners-Lee revisited his original design plan for Linked Data to encourage data owners along a path to "good Linked Data". This revision involved the creation of a five star rating system for Linked Data outlined below. One star: Available on the web (in any format). Two stars: Available as machine-readable structured data (e.g. An Excel spreadsheet instead of an image scan of a table). Three stars: As two stars plus the use of a non-proprietary format (e.g. Comma Separated Values instead of Excel). Four stars: As three stars plus the use of open standards from the World Wide Web Commission (W3C) (i.e. RDF and SPARQL) to identify things, so that people can point to your data and metadata. Five stars: All the above plus link your data to other people's data to provide context Here we present work building on the SeaDataNet common vocabularies served by the NERC Vocabulary Server, connecting projects such as the Rolling Deck to Repository (R2R) and the Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) and other vocabularies such as the Marine Metadata Interoperability Ontology Register and Repository and the NASA Global Change Master Directory to create a Linked Ocean Data cloud. Publishing the vocabularies and metadata in standard RDF XML and exposing SPARQL endpoints renders them five-star Linked

  14. Advanced technology trends in development of land-mine detection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Sun Tae; Choi, Kil Oung

    2001-01-01

    While the United Nations (UN) agencies work to restrict the manufacture, sale, and use of land-mines worldwide, a massive clean-up effort is needed to find and destroy the estimated 100 million land-mines still buried around the world. Land-mines left behind from wars worldwide are one of the past century's main unsolved problems of wars and remain the focus of humanitarian land-mine detection and removal primarily in Europe, Africa, Asia and Central and South America. For example, approximately 1 million anti-personnel mines and other various kinds which have been buried in the 249.4 km (155 miles) demilitarized zone(DMZ) of the Korean peninsular should be completely removed in historical process of the peaceful unification between South and North Korea. In this regard, the current trends of technologies linked to land-mine detection systems are surveyed. (author)

  15. Trends in nuclear education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lartigue, J.; Martinez, T.

    2008-01-01

    Today's nuclear curricula have the purpose to fulfil labor requirements of the nuclear market, both power and applications, as well as keeping up the academic level required for research and development in nuclear sciences. This work analyses the power and applications markets and the situation of nuclear education in several countries, including Mexico, as well as collective efforts promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other organizations. Conclusions are obtained about the status and trends in nuclear education, emphasizing the role of the academic and users sectors to fit the future demand and the availability of skilled personnel. (author)

  16. Trends in corporate greening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    , if a general change of attitude has taken place in the business community or if companies just comply with the required minimum standard set by legislation. Based on a series of surveys this paper reports on the trends in implementing corporate environmental management in Danish industry up till the entrance......The concept of corporate environmental management has existed for the last two to three decades. Many companies have fully or partly adopted the concept in their efforts to eliminate or reduce the impacts on the natural environment caused by their business activities. The question is, however...

  17. Power reactor design trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.J.

    1985-01-01

    Cascade and Pulse Star represent new trends in ICF power reactor design that have emerged in the last few years. The most recent embodiments of these two concepts, and that of the HYLIFE design with which they will compare them, are shown. All three reactors depend upon protecting structural elements from neutrons, x rays and debris by injecting massive amounts of shielding material inside the reaction chamber. However, Cascade and Pulse Star introduce new ideas to improve the economics, safety, and environmental impact of ICF reactors. They also pose different development issues and thus represent technological alternatives to HYLIFE

  18. Trends in PET imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moses, William W.

    2000-01-01

    Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is a well established method for obtaining information on the status of certain organs within the human body or in animals. This paper presents an overview of recent trends PET instrumentation. Significant effort is being expended to develop new PET detector modules, especially those capable of measuring depth of interaction. This is aided by recent advances in scintillator and pixellated photodetector technology. The other significant area of effort is development of special purpose PET cameras (such as for imaging breast cancer or small animals) or cameras that have the ability to image in more than one modality (such as PET / SPECT or PET / X-Ray CT)

  19. Measuring trends in leisure

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Aguiar; Erik Hurst

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the allocation of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively stable number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. Specifically, we show that leisure for men increased by 6-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in market work hours) and for women by 4-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in home production work hours). This increase in leisure corr...

  20. Social Network Gaming Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Gathwright

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this project was to determine how long the social network game Scratch-Offs, created by game development company Spice Rack Media, will remain financially viable. The game Scratch-Offs is a freeware game (users pay nothing for the actual software and is funded through micro transactions (users must pay small amounts of money to play actual games. This implies a relationship between total games played and revenue earned. Using data provided by Spice Rack, we were able to develop an exponential equation that accurately depicts usage trends over time. This equation was used to determine the date Scratch-Offs will no longer be profitable.

  1. Laser Cutting, Development Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming Ove

    1999-01-01

    In this paper a short review of the development trends in laser cutting will be given.The technology, which is the fastest expanding industrial production technology will develop in both its core market segment: Flat bed cutting of sheet metal, as it will expand in heavy industry and in cutting...... of 3-dimensional shapes.The CO2-laser will also in the near future be the dominating laser source in the market, although the new developments in ND-YAG-lasers opens for new possibilities for this laser type....

  2. Estimating Production Cost While Linking Combat Systems and Ship Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    Displacement  (lbs)  full load  Length  (ft)  overall  Beam (ft) overall   Max  Speed  (kts)  Crew  Helicopter  Montenegro   Kotor class  4188800  317  42  27...normalized it to US FY12$. Table 2. SWBSE acquired from NAVSEA data (After NAVSEA 05C). 100—Hull Structure 200—Propulsion Plant 300—Electrical Plant

  3. Gauge-adjusted rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fencl

    2017-01-01

    experimental layouts of ground truth from rain gauges (RGs with different spatial and temporal resolutions. The results suggest that CMLs adjusted by RGs with a temporal aggregation of up to 1 h (i provide precise high-resolution QPEs (relative error  < 7 %, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient  >  0.75 and (ii that the combination of both sensor types clearly outperforms each individual monitoring system. Unfortunately, adjusting CML observations to RGs with longer aggregation intervals of up to 24 h has drawbacks. Although it substantially reduces bias, it unfavourably smoothes out rainfall peaks of high intensities, which is undesirable for stormwater management. A similar, but less severe, effect occurs due to spatial averaging when CMLs are adjusted to remote RGs. Nevertheless, even here, adjusted CMLs perform better than RGs alone. Furthermore, we provide first evidence that the joint use of multiple CMLs together with RGs also reduces bias in their QPEs. In summary, we believe that our adjustment method has great potential to improve the space–time resolution of current urban rainfall monitoring networks. Nevertheless, future work should aim to better understand the reason for the observed systematic error in QPEs from CMLs.

  4. LATTE Linking Acoustic Tests and Tagging Using Statistical Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    foraging dives to received level for Blainville’s beaked whales exposed to sonar signals is shown by a solid black line. For comparison step function...dive; 3. foraging ; 4. ascending on a deep dive; 5. Descent on a shallow dive; 6- at the bottom on a shallow dive; 7.ascending on a shallow dive. pi,j...Monitoring Wildlife ” (a related MEE blog entry is available at https://methodsblog.wordpress.com/2015/10/20/electronic_tagging/). We hope to continue the

  5. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links (poster)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2015-01-01

    In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Urban areas often lack rainfall information. Hence, new rainfall measurement techniques are important. E.g., the number of

  6. minimum variance estimation of yield parameters of rubber tree

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-03-01

    Mar 1, 2013 ... It is our opinion that Kalman filter is a robust estimator of the ... Kalman filter, parameter estimation, rubber clones, Chow failure test, autocorrelation, STAMP, data ...... Mills, T.C. Modelling Current Temperature Trends.

  7. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  8. Trends in family tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike A. Schänzel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

  9. Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Carter, Karen; Naidu, Shivnay; Linhart, Christine; Azim, Syed; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D

    2013-12-01

    To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15-59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Over 1975-2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i-Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i-Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i-Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i-Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Despite IMR declines over 1975-2008, LE for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i-Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15-59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non-communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.

  10. Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    of CO_2 emissions is good news compared to previous years. This is mainly due to the relative weakness of economic growth. Achieving the goals discussed at the COP21 (1.5 to 2 deg. temperature increase by the end of the century), in fact requires a lasting stagnation of global energy consumption and a strong reduction of CO_2 emissions. Thus, with a global GDP growth assumption of 3% per year, this would imply an average carbon intensity reduction target of 5 to 6% per year... (Source: EnerFuture Scenarios - Enerdata) If energy consumption is stagnating, however, we find different trends according to the markets: The oil market is particularly linked to the transport sector; the increase in demand recorded in 2015 (+2%) derives primarily from the increase in vehicle fleet (China, India...) and to a lesser extent from lower prices (particularly in the US). The decline in investments in the upstream sector leaves us to predict, however, a decrease in mid-term production capacity and new pressure on supply/demand.. Gas demand remained stable in 2015: The structural increase continues in the US (replacing coal); in a more cyclical manner, the demand benefited from a colder climate in Europe but fell sharply in Russia (economic recession). At the production level, the US is No. 1 worldwide before Russia, but with a downward trend for several months (shale gas). Coal consumption decreases: Confirming the surprise in 2014: thanks to a new decline observed in China (-3.7%) and in the US (-11%), and despite continued strong growth in India, demand for coal shrinks at the G20 level (-2.7%). Stagnation of power consumption: The demand in power has been stagnant for several years in developed countries. The result is more surprising for non-OECD countries, where growth shrinks significantly. Is this a sign of a slowdown of the increasing weight of power in the overall mix? Power mix continues its slow transformation: In recent years, energy policies have shown visible effects

  11. Linking the evolution of body shape and locomotor biomechanics in bird-line archosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Vivian; Bates, Karl T; Li, Zhiheng; Hutchinson, John R

    2013-05-02

    Locomotion in living birds (Neornithes) has two remarkable features: feather-assisted flight, and the use of unusually crouched hindlimbs for bipedal support and movement. When and how these defining functional traits evolved remains controversial. However, the advent of computer modelling approaches and the discoveries of exceptionally preserved key specimens now make it possible to use quantitative data on whole-body morphology to address the biomechanics underlying this issue. Here we use digital body reconstructions to quantify evolutionary trends in locomotor biomechanics (whole-body proportions and centre-of-mass position) across the clade Archosauria. We use three-dimensional digital reconstruction to estimate body shape from skeletal dimensions for 17 archosaurs along the ancestral bird line, including the exceptionally preserved, feathered taxa Microraptor, Archaeopteryx, Pengornis and Yixianornis, which represent key stages in the evolution of the avian body plan. Rather than a discrete transition from more-upright postures in the basal-most birds (Avialae) and their immediate outgroup deinonychosauria, our results support hypotheses of a gradual, stepwise acquisition of more-crouched limb postures across much of theropod evolution, although we find evidence of an accelerated change within the clade Maniraptora (birds and their closest relatives, such as deinonychosaurs). In addition, whereas reduction of the tail is widely accepted to be the primary morphological factor correlated with centre-of-mass position and, hence, evolution of hindlimb posture, we instead find that enlargement of the pectoral limb and several associated trends have a much stronger influence. Intriguingly, our support for the onset of accelerated morpho-functional trends within Maniraptora is closely correlated with the evolution of flight. Because we find that the evolution of enlarged forelimbs is strongly linked, via whole-body centre of mass, to hindlimb function during

  12. Link til hjemmesider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bervild, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    Link til læringsobjekter/undervisningsportalhttp://videoportal.ucc.dk/channel/10492641/charlotte-bervilds-undervisninghttp://videoportal.ucc.dk/video/8248508/3d-printer-v-lektor-charlotte-bervildFotoblog:http://charlottebervild.blogspot.dk/2008/10/fotocollager-af-charlotte-bervild.html......Link til læringsobjekter/undervisningsportalhttp://videoportal.ucc.dk/channel/10492641/charlotte-bervilds-undervisninghttp://videoportal.ucc.dk/video/8248508/3d-printer-v-lektor-charlotte-bervildFotoblog:http://charlottebervild.blogspot.dk/2008/10/fotocollager-af-charlotte-bervild.html...

  13. Future Population Trends in China: 2005-2050

    OpenAIRE

    Chen Wei; Liu Jinju

    2009-01-01

    Using China's 2000 census data, this paper conducts population projection under different fertility scenarios to gauge the likely trends in China's future population change. The range of fertility assumptions captures the uncertainty of current fertility estimates as well as the likely trends under the family planning policy and economic development. Only one mortality scenario is applied and net international migration is assumed to be null in the population projection. Future life tables ar...

  14. Trends in low birth weight infants and changes in Baltimore's childbearing population, 1972–77

    OpenAIRE

    Strobino, Donna M.

    1982-01-01

    Linked birth and death records provided the population for a study of trends in low birth weight (LBW) rates in Baltimore between 1972 and 1977 and of the effect of changes in the characteristics of the childbearing population on these trends. The impact of shifts in the birth weight distribution on neonatal mortality rates was also investigated. Trends were analyzed for unstandardized LBW rates as well as for rates standardized on the distributions of maternal age, education, gravidity, prio...

  15. Trend Analyses of Nitrate in Danish Groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, B.; Thorling, L.; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2012-01-01

    This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis of distribut......This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis...... of distribution, trends and trend reversals in the groundwater nitrate concentration. Secondly, knowledge about the N surplus in Danish agriculture since 1950 is used as an indicator of the potential loss of N. Thirdly, groundwater recharge CFC (Chlorofluorocarbon) age determination allows linking of the first...... two dataset. The development in the nitrate concentration of oxic groundwater clearly mirrors the development in the national agricultural N surplus, and a corresponding trend reversal is found in groundwater. Regulation and technical improvements in the intensive farming in Denmark have succeeded...

  16. Trends in contemporary mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Strickland, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    This book covers a wide spectrum of hot topics and current trends in mathematics, including noncommutative algebra via deformation theory,  optimal transportation, nonlinear potential theory, kinetic theory and gas dynamics, geometric numerical integration, finite simple groups of small essential dimension, optimal control problems, extended Dynkin diagrams, spin glasses, aspherical closed manifolds, Boltzmann systems, birational geometry of projective varieties and directed graphs, nonlinear diffusion, geometric constructions of extremal metrics on complex manifolds, and Pell’s equation in polynomials. The book comprises a selection of contributions by leading international mathematicians who were speakers at the "INdAM Day", an initiative dating back to 2004 at which the most recent developments in contemporary mathematics are presented.

  17. Trends: cyborg games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Yeoman

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Wearable technologies are a near future concept and cyborgs are in fact reality. The authors’ proposition is how cyborgisation could and will occur. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach – The approach used by this paper is a general review. Findings – The authors explain how the line between humans and technology is becoming more and more blurred as this trends paper explores the concepts of singularity and cyborgs as a future state highlighting the world's first cyborg games. Originality/value – The paper contributes to our understanding that science fiction is fiction to some but reality to others depending on a person's cognition and insight.

  18. Socioeconomic trends in radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barneveld Binkhuysen, F.H.

    1998-01-01

    For radiology the socioeconomic environment is a topic of increasing importance. In addition to the well-known important scientific developments in radiology such as interventional MRI, several other major trends can be recognized: (1) changes in the delivery of health care, in which all kinds of managed care are developing and will influence the practice of radiology, and (2) the process of computerization and digitization. The socioeconomic environment of radiology will be transformed by the developments in managed care, teleradiology and the integration of information systems. If radiologists want to manage future radiology departments they must have an understanding of the changes in the fields of economics and politics that are taking place and that will increasingly influence radiology. Some important and recognizable aspects of these changes will be described here. (orig.)

  19. Trends in cochlear implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fan-Gang

    2004-01-01

    More than 60,000 people worldwide use cochlear implants as a means to restore functional hearing. Although individual performance variability is still high, an average implant user can talk on the phone in a quiet environment. Cochlear-implant research has also matured as a field, as evidenced by the exponential growth in both the patient population and scientific publication. The present report examines current issues related to audiologic, clinical, engineering, anatomic, and physiologic aspects of cochlear implants, focusing on their psychophysical, speech, music, and cognitive performance. This report also forecasts clinical and research trends related to presurgical evaluation, fitting protocols, signal processing, and postsurgical rehabilitation in cochlear implants. Finally, a future landscape in amplification is presented that requires a unique, yet complementary, contribution from hearing aids, middle ear implants, and cochlear implants to achieve a total solution to the entire spectrum of hearing loss treatment and management.

  20. Minimizing the effect of exponential trends in detrended fluctuation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Na; Shang Pengjian; Kamae, Santi

    2009-01-01

    The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and its extensions (MF-DFA) have been used extensively to determine possible long-range correlations in time series. However, recent studies have reported the susceptibility of DFA to trends which give rise to spurious crossovers and prevent reliable estimation of the scaling exponents. In this report, a smoothing algorithm based on the discrete laplace transform (DFT) is proposed to minimize the effect of exponential trends and distortion in the log-log plots obtained by MF-DFA techniques. The effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated on monofractal and multifractal data corrupted with exponential trends.

  1. TRENDS IN ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirjol Florentina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an industry of the future, having the potential to provide significant revenues, and an industry of 'beauty', because it will protect, preserve and contribute to arranging the environment affected by other human activities. This is why it is very important to know the evolution of this underdeveloped field in our country. This paper is intended as a study on current trends in Romanian tourism without any claim of being an exhaustive research on the industry, describing the main indices of tourist traffic and their influence on Romanian tourism. Nowadays, we witness three main trends in Romanian tourism: sustainability, ecotourism and the increasing presence of cultural tourism. Ecotourism, as a form of tourism, has emerged from people's need to withdraw in nature, to visit and learn about the natural areas which have or have not a national or international protection status. Cultural tourism appears as a type of tourism clearly differentiated from other forms or types of tourism, particularly through motivation. It can be defined as a form of tourist mobility whose primary goal is broadening the horizon of knowledge by uncovering its architectural and artistic heritage and the areas in which it originates. Sustainability for tourism, as for other industries, has three independent aspects: economic, socio-cultural and environmental. Sustainability implies permanence, which means that sustainable tourism requires the optimal use of resources, minimizing the negative economic, socio-cultural and ecological impact, maximizing the benefits upon local communities, national economies and conservation of nature. Regarding statistical data, in what quantity is concerned, there is an increase in Romanian tourism, but in what quality is concerned there is a setback for tourism in the last years. This aspect should make public authorities take concern in improving the infrastructure and the quality of the touristical activity and in diversifying

  2. Helically linked mirror arrangement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranjan, P.

    1986-08-01

    A scheme is described for helical linking of mirror sections, which endeavors to combine the better features of toroidal and mirror devices by eliminating the longitudinal loss of mirror machines, having moderately high average β and steady state operation. This scheme is aimed at a device, with closed magnetic surfaces having rotational transform for equilibrium, one or more axisymmetric straight sections for reduced radial loss, a simple geometrical axis for the links and an overall positive magnetic well depth for stability. We start by describing several other attempts at linking of mirror sections, made both in the past and the present. Then a description of our helically linked mirror scheme is given. This example has three identical straight sections connected by three sections having helical geometric axes. A theoretical analysis of the magnetic field and single-particle orbits in them leads to the conclusion that most of the passing particles would be confined in the device and they would have orbits independent of pitch angle under certain conditions. Numerical results are presented, which agree well with the theoretical results as far as passing particle orbits are concerned

  3. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... who use methamphetamine than among HIV patients who do not misuse drugs. In animal studies, methamphetamine has ... risk, trends in HIV/AIDS, and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for ...

  4. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Drugs of Abuse Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl Hallucinogens ... Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications Orderable ...

  5. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

  6. Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bernhard

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

  7. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  8. Website Policies / Important Links | DOepatents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links Website Policies / Important Links Javascript Not Enabled OSTI Security Website Policies and first) Publication Date (oldest first) Close Clear All Find DOepatents Website Policies / Important Important Links Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from

  9. Bottom-linked innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Catharina Juul

    2018-01-01

    hitherto been paid little explicit attention, namely collaboration between middle managers and employees in innovation processes. In contrast to most studies, middle managers and employees are here both subjects of explicit investigation. The collaboration processes explored in this article are termed...... ‘bottom-linked innovation’. The empirical analysis is based on an in-depth qualitative study of bottom-linked innovation in a public frontline institution in Denmark. By combining research on employee-driven innovation and middle management, the article offers new insights into such collaborative......Employee-driven innovation is gaining ground as a strategy for developing sustainable organisations in the public and private sector. This type of innovation is characterised by active employee participation, and the bottom-up perspective is often emphasised. This article explores an issue that has...

  10. Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

  11. Linking lab and field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronje, P.B.

    1988-01-01

    The multitude of different supplements recommended for animals grazing natural pastures, which testifies to the need for a metabolic basis for supplementary feeding practices. The first approach to this problem was to simulate different feeding conditions in the laboratory, where the metabolic responses of body tissues to changes in the supply of purified nutrients could be studied using radioisotope techniques. The second step was to link these fundamental studies to field conditions. The results of these studies suggest that the efficiency of feed conversion and growth rates of ruminants grazing winter pastures in the highveld region of South Africa could be substantially improved by strategic supplementation with glucose precursors. Acetate clearance rate represents a valuable link in the process of applying information obtained from controlled laboratory experiments to field conditions. As this technique is inexpensive, quick and simple to carry out, it is ideally suited to application under field conditions where the use of isotopes is impractical. By providing a link with field conditions, it greatly extended the scope and practical application of isotope tracer techniques

  12. [Trends in hospital care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecina Neto, Gonzalo; Malik, Ana Maria

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyses trends in the delivery of hospital services in Brazil, considering the setting, the current situation and its challenges, examining what still remains to be done. The variables studied for the analysis of the setting are: demography, epidemiological profile, human resources, technology, medicalization, costs, review of the role of the citizen, legislation, equity, hospital-centricity and regionalization, care fractioning and bed availability. The Brazilian setting was studied through the supplementary healthcare model, financing and the healthcare area production chain. The observations of the current situation present external evaluation models, outsourcing, public-private relationships, de-hospitalization and financing. The analysis of the challenges examines the need for long range planning, the quest for new legal models for the 'business', the use of information and information systems, cost controls and the need for enhanced efficiency and compliance with legal directives, guaranteed universal access to full healthcare facilities, the inclusion of primary prevention in healthcare procedures, integrating the public and private sectors and engaging physicians in solving problems.

  13. Future trends in reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rouyer, H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper about future trends in reprocessing essentially reflects French experience and points of view as an example of countries which, like England and Japan, consider that reprocessing is the best solution for the back end of the fuel cycle. In order to know what the future will be, it is necessary to look back at the past and try to find what have been the main reasons for evolution in that period. For reprocessing, it appears that these motivations have been 'safety and economics'. They will remain the motivations for the future. In addition, new motivations for development are starting to appear which are still imprecise but can be expressed as follows: 'which guarantees will public opinion require in order to be convinced that solutions for waste management, proposed by specialists shall ensure that a healthy environment is preserved for the use of future generations'. Consequently the paper examines successively the evolution of reprocessing in the recent past, what the immediate future could be and finally what should be necessary in the long term. (Author)

  14. CLOUD COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian IVANUS

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing has been a tremendous innovation, through which applications became available online, accessible through an Internet connection and using any computing device (computer, smartphone or tablet. According to one of the most recent studies conducted in 2012 by Everest Group and Cloud Connect, 57% of companies said they already use SaaS application (Software as a Service, and 38% reported using standard tools PaaS (Platform as a Service. However, in the most cases, the users of these solutions highlighted the fact that one of the main obstacles in the development of this technology is the fact that, in cloud, the application is not available without an Internet connection. The new challenge of the cloud system has become now the offline, specifically accessing SaaS applications without being connected to the Internet. This topic is directly related to user productivity within companies as productivity growth is one of the key promises of cloud computing system applications transformation. The aim of this paper is the presentation of some important aspects related to the offline cloud system and regulatory trends in the European Union (EU.

  15. Trends in GCC technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmoe, L.E.; Ip, S.

    1992-01-01

    Over the last next decade, a combination of technical, environmental, and economic trends will encourage the commercial deployment of gasification combined cycle (GCC) technology. In the near-term, gas-fired combined cycles will likely be the economic and environmental technology of choice due to currently attractive natural gas prices. As gas prices increase over the next decade, GCC plants will become competitive and, in many cases, more economic than gas-fired options. This paper reports that the degree of penetration of GCC technology into the market will depend to some extent on the successful demonstration of a variety of technology enhancements. Many of these advancements will be proven in projects currently in progress, while others are still on the drawing boards. The first wave of GCC projects will likely take advantage of niche situations or benefit from government funding. but as GCC economics become more widely favorable, the plants will benefit from their flexibility to match grassroots, repowering, refueling, cogeneration, and chemical coproduction opportunities

  16. Suicide: current trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Rahn K; Patel, Tejas C; Avenido, Jaymie; Patel, Milapkumar; Jaleel, Mohammad; Barker, Narviar C; Khan, Jahanzeb Ali; Ali, Shahid; Jabeen, Shagufta

    2011-07-01

    Suicide is the act of a human being intentionally causing his or her own death. More than 1 million people commit suicide every year. It is the 13th leading cause of death worldwide, with China, India, and Japan accounting for almost half of all suicides. In less than 50 years, the rate of suicide among Sri Lankans has risen from a modest level to one of the highest in the world (118 per 100,000). Suicide is a major preventable cause of premature death. It is influenced by psychosocial, cultural, and environmental risk factors. The impact of suicide can be devastating for all concerned. It is common in people who are living with chronic mental illness. Individuals with severe clinical depression and alcohol use disorders are at highest risk if untreated. On an interpersonal level, friends and families of suicide victims require social support. On a national level, governments need to recognize the causes of suicide and protect those most vulnerable. If governments commit to defining national responses to prevent suicide, significant progress can be made. On a global scale, research and health organizations can identify global trends and encourage the sharing of information in effective prevention activities. In September 2010, World Suicide Prevention Day, with a theme of "Many faces, many places: suicide prevention across the world," encouraged public awareness worldwide to unite in commitment and action to promote understanding about suicide and removal of stigmatization'. There is compelling evidence that adequate prevention and awareness can reduce suicide rates.

  17. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  18. Trends in nutrients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heathwaite, A.L.; Johnes, P.J.; Peters, N.E.

    1996-01-01

    The roles of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as key nutrients determining the trophic status of water bodies are examined, and evidence reviewed for trends in concentrations of N and P species which occur in freshwaters, primarily in northern temperate environments. Data are reported for water bodies undergoing eutrophication and acidification, especially water bodies receiving increased nitrogen inputs through the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Nutrient loading on groundwaters and surface freshwaters is assessed with respect to causes and rates of (change, relative rates of change for N and P, and implications of change for the future management of lakes, rivers and groundwaters. In particular, the nature and emphasis of studies for N species and P fractions in lakes versus rivers and groundwaters are contrasted. This review paper primarily focuses on results from North America and Europe, particularly for the UK where a wide range of data sets exists. Few nutrient loading data have been published on water bodies in less developed countries; however, some of the available data are presented to provide a global perspective. In general, N and P concentrations have increased dramatically (>20 times background concentrations) in many areas and causes vary considerably, ranging from urbanization to changes in agricultural practices.

  19. Trends and progress in system identification

    CERN Document Server

    Eykhoff, Pieter

    1981-01-01

    Trends and Progress in System Identification is a three-part book that focuses on model considerations, identification methods, and experimental conditions involved in system identification. Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with a discussion of model method in system identification, citing four examples differing on the nature of the models involved, the nature of the fields, and their goals. Subsequent chapters describe the most important aspects of model theory; the """"classical"""" methods and time series estimation; application of least squares and related techniques for the e

  20. 2013 Market Trends Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2014-01-01

    The potential geothermal energy resource base of the United States is a major natural asset, on the order of more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of clean renewable energy. Conventional hydrothermal technologies could be utilized for 6 GW of additional potential beyond what has already been developed. There are an estimated 30 GW of additional conventional resources yet to be discovered in the western United States. The next generation of geothermal technologies, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), is positioned to access additional geothermal resources by adding either permeability or a heat exchange fluid to a geological formation with sufficient heat. A breakthrough in EGS could expand the U.S. geothermal resource base dramatically.

  1. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  2. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  3. Selected Trends of the Cybercrime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Požár

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution paid particular attention to trends of the cybercrime in future period dedicated to combating negative phenomena in the context of cyberspace. The structure of article concern of definition of cybercrime, its legal classification especially choosing trends of cybercrime in future period.

  4. Interior Design Trends in Libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sager, Don, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    Four contributing authors discuss perspectives on current trends in library interior design. Articles include: "Trends in Library Furnishings: A Manufacturer's Perspective" (Andrea Johnson); "Libraries, Architecture, and Light: The Architect's Perspective" (Rick McCarthy); "The Library Administrator's Perspective" (Chadwick Raymond); and "The…

  5. [New trends in tonometry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draeger, J A; Schwenteck, T; Ruokonen, P C

    2006-10-01

    Though the knowledge about the risk of elevated intraocular pressure for pathogenesis for development and progress of glaucoma is more than 400 years old. It took another 300 years before by means of tonometry this elevation could be quantified. After discussion of the key words it is our aim to demonstrate the latest trends in tonometry, specifically by use of modern electronics for instrument design. Goldmann was the founder of the "applanation tonometry", measuring the corelation of applanated area and applied force. Here, the next step was the development of instruments, measuring independent of position or gravity to allow application also at the lying patient. Electronic area detection was the next step to avoid examinor's error. Also important was the introduction of automatic UV-desinfection to avoid contamination of the other eye or other patients. Other tonometers control the force applied by an inductive method, which also allows application independent of position. Airpuff-tonometry uses completely different measuring principles - the resulting change of corneal curvature indicates the intraocular pressure. The impedance principle is applied even through the closed eye lid. The shock waves resulting shall be measured. Direct application of a surface sensor incorporated into a concave surface contact body shall allow direct measurement of intraocular pressure independent of corneal thickness, curvature, astigmatism. This method has been tried for more than 20 years. Also exposition of the eye to count waves of different frequency was an early attempt. Here also change of reflectivity is used to calculate intraocular pressure. Even after use of modern electronic technology the precision of many of these new devices does not lead to better results. This specifically is shown by modern calibration methods.

  6. A comprehensive comparison of network similarities for link prediction and spurious link elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peng; Qiu, Dan; Zeng, An; Xiao, Jinghua

    2018-06-01

    Identifying missing interactions in complex networks, known as link prediction, is realized by estimating the likelihood of the existence of a link between two nodes according to the observed links and nodes' attributes. Similar approaches have also been employed to identify and remove spurious links in networks which is crucial for improving the reliability of network data. In network science, the likelihood for two nodes having a connection strongly depends on their structural similarity. The key to address these two problems thus becomes how to objectively measure the similarity between nodes in networks. In the literature, numerous network similarity metrics have been proposed and their accuracy has been discussed independently in previous works. In this paper, we systematically compare the accuracy of 18 similarity metrics in both link prediction and spurious link elimination when the observed networks are very sparse or consist of inaccurate linking information. Interestingly, some methods have high prediction accuracy, they tend to perform low accuracy in identification spurious interaction. We further find that methods can be classified into several cluster according to their behaviors. This work is useful for guiding future use of these similarity metrics for different purposes.

  7. Which Trend is your Friend?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

  8. Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

    2015-09-01

    We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

  9. Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson

    2018-03-01

    Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene), using total column ozone data (TCO) and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15-30 km) recorded during the period January 1998-December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS) and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), ENSO, 11-year solar cycle) that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0-10° S), tropical (10-20° S) and subtropical (20-30° S). Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java). The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at ˜ 26 km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is

  10. Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Toihir

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene, using total column ozone data (TCO and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15–30 km recorded during the period January 1998–December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, ENSO, 11-year solar cycle that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0–10° S, tropical (10–20° S and subtropical (20–30° S. Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java. The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at  ∼ 26

  11. Linking consumer experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smed, Karina Madsen

    become part of the individual self, worldview, and behaviour. This paper seeks to explore links between consumer experiences through the exploration of narrative sequences in travel blogs. Findings indicate that non-consumption is a central element to the bloggers and also indicative of a community......Consumers consume products in various ways serving a number of purposes. Much attention has been paid to experiences attached to consumption, sometimes very explicitly, e.g. in tourism, the essence of which is experiences of various sorts, but often also implicitly as internalised experiences...

  12. Knots and links

    CERN Document Server

    Rolfsen, Dale

    2003-01-01

    Rolfsen's beautiful book on knots and links can be read by anyone, from beginner to expert, who wants to learn about knot theory. Beginners with a basic background find an inviting introduction to the elements of topology, emphasizing the tools needed for understanding knots, the fundamental group and van Kampen's theorem, for example, which are then applied to concrete problems, such as computing knot groups. For experts, Rolfsen explains advanced topics, such as the connections between knot theory and surgery and how they are useful to understanding three-manifolds. Besides providing a guide

  13. A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.

    2010-01-01

    Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

  14. Trends in Hydrogen Vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoevenaars, A.J.; Weeda, M. [ECN Hydrogen and Clean Fossil Fuels, Petten (Netherlands)

    2009-09-15

    This report intends to provide an update of the latest developments that have recently occurred within car industry within the field of Hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to date, October 2009. In attempts to provide a clear and logical overview, the report starts with an overview of the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) that are actually active within the Hydrogen vehicle business, and provides an overview of the intensity of FCV activity per OEM. This overview shows that there is a pool of distinctively most active OEMs, and that others have tried to create exposure for themselves, but have not seriously been involved in in-house technology development in support of FCV manufacturing. Furthermore, some manufacturers chose a different path when it comes to using hydrogen for vehicle propulsion and use Hydrogen gas as a fuel for a conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). In the field of FCVs, Most FCV activities are displayed by Honda, Daimler, Opel/GM, Hyundai/Kia, Toyota, Nissan and Ford. Volkswagen has given less priority to FCV development and has not been profiling itself as a very Hydrogen-prone OEM. Mazda and BMW chose to put their efforts in the development of Hydrogen fuelled ICE vehicles. Also Ford has put efforts in Hydrogen fuelled ICE vehicles. After the active OEMs are mapped, an overview is given on how active they have been in terms of cars produced. It appeared difficult to come up with reliable estimations on the basis of numbers available for public. The sum of vehicles produced by all OEMs together was estimated on about 515 vehicles. This estimation however was much lower than the figures published by Fuel Cell Today (FCT). FCT projects accumulated vehicles shipped in 2009 around 1100 units, the double of the numbers found for this study. Communication with FCT learned us that FCT has access to confidential information from the OEMs. Especially the Asian OEMs do not provide transparency when it comes to FCVs shipped, however

  15. Trends in Hydrogen Vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoevenaars, A.J.; Weeda, M.

    2009-09-01

    This report intends to provide an update of the latest developments that have recently occurred within car industry within the field of Hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to date, October 2009. In attempts to provide a clear and logical overview, the report starts with an overview of the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) that are actually active within the Hydrogen vehicle business, and provides an overview of the intensity of FCV activity per OEM. This overview shows that there is a pool of distinctively most active OEMs, and that others have tried to create exposure for themselves, but have not seriously been involved in in-house technology development in support of FCV manufacturing. Furthermore, some manufacturers chose a different path when it comes to using hydrogen for vehicle propulsion and use Hydrogen gas as a fuel for a conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). In the field of FCVs, Most FCV activities are displayed by Honda, Daimler, Opel/GM, Hyundai/Kia, Toyota, Nissan and Ford. Volkswagen has given less priority to FCV development and has not been profiling itself as a very Hydrogen-prone OEM. Mazda and BMW chose to put their efforts in the development of Hydrogen fuelled ICE vehicles. Also Ford has put efforts in Hydrogen fuelled ICE vehicles. After the active OEMs are mapped, an overview is given on how active they have been in terms of cars produced. It appeared difficult to come up with reliable estimations on the basis of numbers available for public. The sum of vehicles produced by all OEMs together was estimated on about 515 vehicles. This estimation however was much lower than the figures published by Fuel Cell Today (FCT). FCT projects accumulated vehicles shipped in 2009 around 1100 units, the double of the numbers found for this study. Communication with FCT learned us that FCT has access to confidential information from the OEMs. Especially the Asian OEMs do not provide transparency when it comes to FCVs shipped, however

  16. Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

    The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

  17. Dimensioning of multiservice links taking account of soft blocking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Villy Bæk; Stepanov, S.N.; Kostrov, A.V.

    2006-01-01

    of a multiservice link taking into account the possibility of soft blocking. An approximate algorithm for estimation of main performance measures is constructed. The error of estimation is numerically studied for different types of soft blocking. The optimal procedure of dimensioning is suggested....

  18. Digitalization and the global technology trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ignat, V.

    2017-08-01

    Digitalization, connected products and services, and shortening innovation cycles are widely discussed topics in management practice and theory and demand for new concepts. We analysed how companies innovated their business models and how are the new the technology trends. We found out, that have a positive approach to digitalization but the technology strategy still runs its original business model. Digitalization forces to new solution orientation. For companies it is necessary to master the digital transformation, new innovations have to be developed. Furthermore, digitalization / Industry 4.0 linking the real-life factory with virtual reality, will play an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. Companies have to obtain new digital capabilities, in order to make their company sustainable for the future. A long term growth and welfare in Europe could be guaranteed only by new technology innovation.

  19. Aging trends -- the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddlecom, A E; Domingo, L J

    1996-03-01

    This report presents a description of the trends in growth of the elderly population in the Philippines and their health, disability, education, work status, income, and family support. The proportion of elderly in the Philippines is much smaller than in other Southeast Asian countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia. The elderly population aged over 65 years increased from 2.7% of total population in 1990 to 3.6% in 1990. The elderly are expected to comprise 7.7% of total population in 2025. The proportion of elderly is small due to the high fertility rate. Life expectancy averages 63.5 years. The aged dependency ratio will double from 5.5 elderly per 100 persons aged 15-64 years in 1990 to 10.5/100 in 2025. A 1984 ASEAN survey found that only 11% of elderly rated their health as bad. The 1990 Census reveals that 3.9% were disabled elderly. Most were deaf, blind, or orthopedically impaired. 16% of elderly in the ASEAN survey reported not seeing a doctor even when they needed to. 54% reported that a doctor was not visited due to the great expense. In 1980, 67% of men and 76% of women aged over 60 years had less than a primary education. The proportion with a secondary education in 2020 is expected to be about 33% for men and 33% for women. 66.5% of men and 28.5% of women aged over 60 years were in the formal labor force in 1990. Women were less likely to receive cash income from current jobs or pensions. 65% of earnings from older rural people was income from agricultural production. 60% of income among urban elderly was from children, and 23% was from pensions. Family support is provided to the elderly in the form of coresidence. In 1988, 68% of elderly aged over 60 years lived with at least one child. Retirement or nursing homes are uncommon. The Philippines Constitution states that families have a duty to care for elderly members.

  20. An assessment of electricity and income distributional trends following rural electrification in poor northeast Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermaier, Martin; Szklo, Alexandre; La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre; Pinguelli Rosa, Luiz

    2012-01-01

    Rural electrification is considered to be a key strategy for poverty alleviation and sustainable development. It should therefore include (1) expanding electricity access and (2) enable new consumers to increase their electricity consumption. In this paper we ask how Brazil’s recent rural electrification efforts have managed to reach these objectives. A new method to measure energy and income equity is presented which uses estimations of non-parametric density curves for the analysis of energy and income distributional trends following electrification. By applying our method to a panel data set from two Brazilian states situated in the country’s poor northeast region we find that (1) rural consumers take up electricity consumption after electrification, and that (2) low consumption levels give way to higher electricity consumption levels after only a few years. This indicates immediate social benefits for households through consumption of electricity services. However, our analysis cannot verify a direct link between electricity use and rural income generation in the short term. The results emphasize the need for government and other actors to integrate rural electrification into broader rural development strategies in order to enable long-term welfare increases through electricity use. - Highlights: ► Comprehensive analysis of Brazil’s recent rural electrification efforts. ► New methodology to analyze energy and income equity trends ex post electrification. ► Analysis indicates immediate social benefits for electrified households. ► We cannot establish a direct link between electricity use and income in the short-run. ► Electrification thus should be integrated in long-term rural development strategies.

  1. Effects of Exponential Trends on Correlations of Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai-Jing Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in time series. In this paper, DFA is employed to discuss the long-range correlations of stock market. The effects of exponential trends on correlations of Hang Seng Index (HSI are investigated with emphasis. We find that the long-range correlations and the positions of the crossovers of lower order DFA appear to have no immunity to the additive exponential trends. Further, our analysis suggests that an increase in the DFA order increases the efficiency of eliminating on exponential trends. In addition, the empirical study shows that the correlations and crossovers are associated with DFA order and magnitude of exponential trends.

  2. Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

    1993-01-01

    We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

  3. 76 FR 12985 - Request for Comments on Trend Factor Methodology Used in the Calculation of Fair Market Rents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-09

    ... Trend Factor Methodology Used in the Calculation of Fair Market Rents AGENCY: Office of the Assistant... used to calculate the trend factor component of the Fair Market Rent estimates. SUMMARY: Section 8(c)(1... comment regarding the manner in which HUD calculates the trend factor used in the Fair Market Rent (FMR...

  4. Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

  5. A SHAR AH COMPLIANCE REVIEW ON INVESTMENT LINKED TAK FUL IN MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    MOHD NOOR, AZMAN

    2009-01-01

    The growth in Islamic funds has brought new challenges and opportunities for the financial industry. In recent years, the trend has been towards unit-linked products with an emphasis on the investment link which definitely includes the takaful industry. Takaful operators are offering investment products apart from their core business in providing protection through General and Family Takaful. This paper aims to review some Shariah issues in investment-linked takaful schemes.

  6. The Wide and Complex Field of NAFLD Biomarker Research: Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Wichro, Erika; Macheiner, Tanja; Schmid, Jasmin; Kavsek, Barbara; Sargsyan, Karine

    2014-01-01

    Background. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is now acknowledged as a complex public health issue linked to sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and related disorders like type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Aims. We aimed to retrieve its trends out of the huge amount of published data. Therefore, we conducted an extensive literature search to identify possible biomarker and/or biomarker combinations by retrospectively assessing and evaluating common and novel biomarkers to predict progression a...

  7. Trends in Digital Cultural Heritage Management and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Christodoulakis, Stavros

    2014-01-01

    We present some recent trends in the field of digital cultural heritage management and applications including digital cultural data curation, interoperability, open linked data publishing, crowd sourcing, visualization, platforms for digital cultural heritage, and applications. We present some examples from research and development projects of MUSIC/TUC in those areas. The Fourth International Conference on Digital Presentation and Preservation of Cultural and Scientific Heritage—DiPP2014 ...

  8. Trends for monthly changes in days open in Holsteins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pszczola, M.J.; Aguilar, I.; Misztal, I.

    2009-01-01

    A reaction norm approach was used to estimate trends for days open (DO) with a model that indirectly accounted for heat stress. Data included 3.4 million first-parity records of DO of US Holsteins. A fixed effect model included herd-year, month of calving within region (MOC), age class, and

  9. Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ezzati, Majid; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Background

    Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic

  10. Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Wanninkhof

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

  11. Vermont stumpage price trends revisited: with comparisons to New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul E. Sendak; Thom J. McEvoy

    2013-01-01

    Our objective was to describe the trends of Vermont stumpage prices for major sawtimber species and products over the approximately last quarter century and propose a likely explanation of changes that we observed. Annual percentage rates of change (APR) were estimated for 10 forest products in Vermont from the third quarter of 1981 (1981Q3) to the first quarter of...

  12. Modern trends in contemporary chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Javed, H.; Pervez, H.; Qadeer, R.

    1993-01-01

    This publication contains a collection of papers presented at symposium on M odern Trends in Contemporary Chemistry , that was held in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 6-8, 1990. The symposium was divided into five sections for presentation of about 55 scientific and technical papers and 6 review papers. The contents of these papers were of good quality in the widespread concern in new trends of chemistry. The six reviews papers covered fields of ortho metallation reactions, evaluation of heterogeneous electron transfer rate contents, macro reticular ion-exchange resins, spectrochemical analytical techniques, liquid crystal-high technology materials for practical applications and trends in advanced ceramics. (A.B.)

  13. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... the Link - Drugs and HIV Learn the Link - Drugs and HIV Email Facebook Twitter 2005 –Ongoing Behaviors ... GA: CDC, DHHS. Retrieved November 2017. How are Drug Misuse and HIV Related? Drug misuse and addiction ...

  14. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... the link between drug misuse and HIV infection. It contains information for young people, parents and teachers, ... present time. The virus (HIV) and the disease it causes (AIDS) are often linked and referred to ...

  15. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... teens and young adults have never known a world without it. NIDA’s "Learn the Link" campaign continues ... for HIV infection through risky sexual behaviors. NIDA researchers have studied and continue to study the links ...

  16. The HANDSS-55 Linking Equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosby, S.

    2001-01-01

    The Bucket Translation Unit (BTU) and the Drum Handler are two of the HANDSS-55 subsystems identified as linking components. Both subsystems link other modules together by moving material to or from another module

  17. Phosphorylation of human link proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oester, D.A.; Caterson, B.; Schwartz, E.R.

    1986-01-01

    Three link proteins of 48, 44 and 40 kDa were purified from human articular cartilage and identified with monoclonal anti-link protein antibody 8-A-4. Two sets of lower molecular weight proteins of 30-31 kDa and 24-26 kDa also contained link protein epitopes recognized by the monoclonal antibody and were most likely degradative products of the intact link proteins. The link proteins of 48 and 40 kDa were identified as phosphoproteins while the 44 kDa link protein did not contain 32 P. The phosphorylated 48 and 40 kDa link proteins contained approximately 2 moles PO 4 /mole link protein

  18. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... RSS Menu Home Drugs of Abuse Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl Hallucinogens Inhalants Heroin Marijuana MDMA (Ecstasy/ ...

  19. Local macroeconomic trends and hospital admissions for child abuse, 2000-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Joanne N; Medina, Sheyla P; Feudtner, Chris; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, Russell; Fieldston, Evan S; Rubin, David M

    2012-08-01

    To examine the relationship between local macroeconomic indicators and physical abuse admission rates to pediatric hospitals over time. Retrospective study of children admitted to 38 hospitals in the Pediatric Hospital Information System database. Hospital data were linked to unemployment, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure data for the associated metropolitan statistical areas. Primary outcomes were admission rates for (1) physical abuse in children <6 years old, (2) non-birth, non-motor vehicle crash-related traumatic brain injury (TBI) in infants <1 year old (which carry high risk for abuse), and (3) all-cause injuries. Poisson fixed-effects regression estimated trends in admission rates and associations between those rates and trends in unemployment, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure. Between 2000 and 2009, rates of physical abuse and high-risk TBI admissions increased by 0.79% and 3.1% per year, respectively (P ≤ .02), whereas all-cause injury rates declined by 0.80% per year (P < .001). Abuse and high-risk TBI admission rates were associated with the current mortgage delinquency rate and with the change in delinquency and foreclosure rates from the previous year (P ≤ .03). Neither abuse nor high-risk TBI rates were associated with the current unemployment rate. The all-cause injury rate was negatively associated with unemployment, delinquency, and foreclosure rates (P ≤ .007). Multicenter hospital data show an increase in pediatric admissions for physical abuse and high-risk TBI during a time of declining all-cause injury rate. Abuse and high-risk TBI admission rates increased in relationship to local mortgage delinquency and foreclosure trends.

  20. ITK optical links backup document

    CERN Document Server

    Huffman, B T; The ATLAS collaboration; Flick, T; Ye, J

    2013-01-01

    This document describes the proposed optical links to be used for the ITK in the phase II upgrade. The current R&D for optical links pursued in the Versatile Link group is reviewed. In particular the results demonstrating the radiation tolerance of all the on-detector components are documented. The bandwidth requirements and the resulting numerology are given.

  1. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... for young people, parents and teachers, and the media with links to our latest research findings and news updates. Read on to Learn the Link between ... to this site at: http://www.drugabuse.gov/news-events/public-education-projects/learn-link-drugs-hiv . ... Social Media Send the message to young people and to ...

  2. Seismic link at plate boundary

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    time series to determine the causality and related orientation. The resulting link ... Triggering causes changes in the Coulomb stress on a specified fault, which is ... work link shows that the alignment of the links is parallel to the Honshu Trench ...

  3. Fermions and link invariants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kauffman, L.; Saleur, H.

    1991-01-01

    Various aspects of knot theory are discussed when fermionic degrees of freedom are taken into account in the braid group representations and in the state models. It is discussed how the R matrix for the Alexander polynomial arises from the Fox differential calculus, and how it is related to the quantum group U q gl(1,1). New families of solutions of the Yang Baxter equation obtained from ''linear'' representations of the braid group and exterior algebra are investigated. State models associated with U q sl(n,m), and in the case n=m=1 a state model for the multivariable Alexander polynomial are studied. Invariants of links in solid handlebodies are considered and it is shown how the non trivial topology lifts the boson fermion degeneracy is present in S 3 . (author) 36 refs

  4. Multilevel DC link inverter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Gui-Jia

    2003-06-10

    A multilevel DC link inverter and method for improving torque response and current regulation in permanent magnet motors and switched reluctance motors having a low inductance includes a plurality of voltage controlled cells connected in series for applying a resulting dc voltage comprised of one or more incremental dc voltages. The cells are provided with switches for increasing the resulting applied dc voltage as speed and back EMF increase, while limiting the voltage that is applied to the commutation switches to perform PWM or dc voltage stepping functions, so as to limit current ripple in the stator windings below an acceptable level, typically 5%. Several embodiments are disclosed including inverters using IGBT's, inverters using thyristors. All of the inverters are operable in both motoring and regenerating modes.

  5. Linking Wayfinding and Wayfaring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanng, Ditte Bendix; Jensen, Ole B.

    2016-01-01

    In this chapter we propose to expand and enhance the understanding of wayfi nding beyond the strictly “instrumental” (i.e., getting from point A to point B), to include the qualities and multi-sensorial inputs that inform and shape people’s movement through space. We take as a point of departure...... of environmental information , which includes the embodied, multi-sensorial experience of moving through physical space. We base our examination in part on the classic positions of the wayfi nding literature—for example, Lynch’s seminal study, The Image of the City ( 1960 ). However, we also examine the so......-called mobilities turn in which mobility is viewed as a complex, multilayered process that entails much more than simply getting from point A to point B (see Cresswell 2006 ; Jensen 2013 ; Urry 2007 ).The structure of the chapter is simple: We fi rst introduce the concepts that are key to linking wayfi nding...

  6. LinkLights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grönvall, Erik; Kramp, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    The project described in this paper aims to provide assistive tools to support elderly people affected by vestibular dysfunction (i.e. a form of balance disorder leading to dizziness and nausea) in their home-based rehabilitation activities. Challenges emerge as the rehabilitation moves from...... a supervised hospital setting to private homes. Our studies have shown that the elderly people are less motivated to perform the training at home. This paper presents a tangible, portable, two dimensional modular platform called LinkLights that has been developed to sustain the home-based rehabilitation......, giving clear guidelines what to do, adding motivational cues and elements of variation and surprise in the activity. Furthermore, a set of challenges for successful translocation of the therapeutic regimen from a supervised, hospital setting to an unsupervised home-based setting together with some early...

  7. Estimativas de tendências e parâmetros genéticos do peso padronizado aos 378 dias de idade, medidas corporais e perímetro escrotal de machos Nelore de Sertãozinho, SP Estimates of genetic parameters and trends for body weight at 378 days, body measurements and scrotal circumference of Sertãozinho Nellore males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joslaine Noely dos Santos Gonçalves Cyrillo

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available Os objetivos deste estudo foram estimar as tendências e os parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos do peso padronizado aos 378 dias de idade (P378, medidas corporais e perímetro escrotal de machos Nelore, pertencentes às populações selecionadas e controle da Estação Experimental de Zootecnia de Sertãozinho. As herdabilidades, estimadas considerando-se modelo de touro e modelo animal, foram, respectivamente, 0,53±0,12 e 0,36 para P378; 0,38±0,11 e 0,58 para altura na garupa; 0,31±0,10 e 0,10 para perímetro torácico; 0,40± 0,11 e 0,13 para comprimento do corpo; 0,39±0,11 e 0,30 para comprimento do dorso; 0,33±0,10 e 0,12 para comprimento da garupa; 0,08± 0,07 e 0,14 para distância de ísquios; 0,23±0,09 e 0,08 para distância de íleos e 0,57±0,13 e 0,44 para perímetro escrotal. A correlação genética mais alta entre P378 e medidas corporais foi encontrada para perímetro torácico (0,86 ± 0,08; as demais variaram de 0,46 a 0,72. Os resultados deste estudo mostraram que, em função dos valores médios a altos das herdabilidades estimadas para P378 e da maioria das características de medidas do corpo dos animais, houve considerável variação genética aditiva nesses atributos. Além disso, devido às altas correlações genéticas de P378 com a maioria das características, pode-se concluir ser bastante provável que grande parte dos genes que controlam o peso pós-desmame também seja responsável pelo desenvolvimento das diferentes regiões do corpo de machos Nelore. A magnitude desses parâmetros justifica a tendência genética positiva nas características de seleção direta e nas secundárias.The objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic trends and also the genetic and phenotypic parameters for body weight at 378 days (W378, body measurements and scrotal circumferences of Nellore males from selected and control populations of the Estação Experimental de Zootecnia de Sertãozinho (SP, Brazil. The

  8. Named Entity Linking Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Panteleev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the tasks of processing text in natural language, Named Entity Linking (NEL represents the task to define and link some entity, which is found in the text, with some entity in the knowledge base (for example, Dbpedia. Currently, there is a diversity of approaches to solve this problem, but two main classes can be identified: graph-based approaches and machine learning-based ones. Graph and Machine Learning approaches-based algorithm is proposed accordingly to the stated assumptions about the interrelations of named entities in a sentence and in general.In the case of graph-based approaches, it is necessary to solve the problem of identifying an optimal set of the related entities according to some metric that characterizes the distance between these entities in a graph built on some knowledge base. Due to limitations in processing power, to solve this task directly is impossible. Therefore, its modification is proposed. Based on the algorithms of machine learning, an independent solution cannot be built due to small volumes of training datasets relevant to NEL task. However, their use can contribute to improving the quality of the algorithm. The adaptation of the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model is proposed in order to obtain a measure of the compatibility of attributes of various entities encountered in one context.The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was experimentally tested. A test dataset was independently generated. On its basis the performance of the model was compared using the proposed algorithm with the open source product DBpedia Spotlight, which solves the NEL problem.The mockup, based on the proposed algorithm, showed a low speed as compared to DBpedia Spotlight. However, the fact that it has shown higher accuracy, stipulates the prospects for work in this direction.The main directions of development were proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the system and its productivity.

  9. Agroforestry trends in Punjab, Pakistan

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The main objectives of the study pertain to agro forestry trend in Punjab, ... further increase it, if the government revives financial/technical incentives and marketing facilities. ...... their socioeconomics, land ownership and sustainable life.

  10. Nitrate | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  11. Sunburn | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  12. Nuclear imaging: Advances and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herk, G. van

    1986-01-01

    In this article, nuclear imaging instruments that are likely to be of interest to the nuclear medicine community of developing countries are emphasized. The advances, trends, developments, and future directions in the field of nuclear imaging are mentioned

  13. Trends in the Information Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Thomas H.

    1987-01-01

    The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

  14. The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

    2014-02-01

    To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

  15. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  16. Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino; Kwok, Ronald; Martin, Seelye; Gordon, Arnold L.

    2011-01-01

    Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

  17. Estimating Utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Simler, Kenneth R.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes a......, with the current approach tending to systematically overestimate (underestimate) poverty in urban (rural) zones.......A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes...... an information-theoretic approach to estimating cost-of-basic-needs (CBN) poverty lines that are utility consistent. Applications to date illustrate that utility-consistent poverty measurements derived from the proposed approach and those derived from current CBN best practices often differ substantially...

  18. Deploying Linked Open Vocabulary (LOV to Enhance Library Linked Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh, Sam Gyun

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the advent of Linked Data (LD as a method for building webs of data, there have been many attempts to apply and implement LD in various settings. Efforts have been made to convert bibliographic data in libraries into Linked Data, thereby generating Library Linked Data (LLD. However, when memory institutions have tried to link their data with external sources based on principles suggested by Tim Berners-Lee, identifying appropriate vocabularies for use in describing their bibliographic data has proved challenging. The objective of this paper is to discuss the potential role of Linked Open Vocabularies (LOV in providing better access to various open datasets and facilitating effective linking. The paper will also examine the ways in which memory institutions can utilize LOV to enhance the quality of LLD and LLD-based ontology design.

  19. Genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mäki, K.; Groen, A.F.; Liinamo, A.E.; Ojala, M.

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this study were to assess genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations. The influence of time-dependent fixed effects in the model when estimating the genetic trends was also studied. Official hip and elbow dysplasia screening

  20. Maternal Employment and Caring for Children with Disabilities. Data Trends #95

    Science.gov (United States)

    Research and Training Center on Family Support and Children's Mental Health, 2004

    2004-01-01

    "Data Trends" reports present summaries of research on mental health services for children and adolescents and their families. The article summarized in this "Data Trends" addresses several gaps in previous research estimating the impact of caregiving on employment. For instance, prior studies employ a variety of disability definitions, making it…

  1. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  2. Socioeconomic status and trends in alcohol drinking in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-92

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Jørgensen, Torben; Grønbaek, M

    2001-01-01

    AIMS: To examine trends in alcohol drinking in different educational groups. METHODS: Data from three cross-sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92 were analysed to estimate trends in abstention, moderate, heavy, and sporadic heavy alcohol use in relation to level of ...

  3. Link for Injured Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Marizen; Toussaint, Maisha; Woods-Jaeger, Briana; Harland, Karisa; Wetjen, Kristel; Wilgenbusch, Tammy; Pitcher, Graeme; Jennissen, Charles

    2017-01-01

    Objective Injury, the most common type of pediatric trauma, can lead to a number of adverse psychosocial outcomes, including posttraumatic stress disorder. Currently, few evidence-based parent programs exist to support children hospitalized after a traumatic injury. Using methods in evaluation and intervention research, we completed a formative research study to develop a new program of psychological first aid, Link for Injured Kids, aimed to educate parents in supporting their children after a severe traumatic injury. Methods Using qualitative methods, we held focus groups with parents and pediatric trauma providers of children hospitalized at a Level I Children's Hospital because of an injury in 2012. We asked focus group participants to describe reactions to trauma and review drafts of our intervention materials. Results Health professionals and caregivers reported a broad spectrum of emotional responses by their children or patients; however, difficulties were experienced during recovery at home and upon returning to school. All parents and health professionals recommended that interventions be offered to parents either in the emergency department or close to discharge among admissions. Conclusions Results from this study strongly indicate a need for posttrauma interventions, particularly in rural settings, to support families of children to address the psychosocial outcomes in the aftermath of an injury. Findings presented here describe the process of intervention development that responds to the needs of an affected population. PMID:26428077

  4. The CMS link system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vila, I.

    1999-01-01

    The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) is a multi-purpose detector that is going to be installed in the future Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. Muons are one of the main physical signatures of the expected new physics. The muons are going to be detected by the Central Tracker (CT) and the Muon Spectrometer (MS). Both, the CT and MS can provide an independent muon momentum measurement, but for all η and momentum values the highest precision for muon momentum measurement is achieved when the muon tracks are reconstructed using both tracking detectors. The calorimeters and the solenoid volumes separate about three meters the CT and the MS. It has been shown that the alignment of the CT with respect to the MS can not be guaranteed by a software alignment in a reasonable time scale. Therefore, an opto-mechanical system (the multipoint link system) have been designed to monitor, on-line, the relative position of both sub-detectors providing a common reference frame for both of them. The local alignment of the muon barrel spectrometer determines the relative position of the muon chambers with respect to themselves and also with respect to a carbon fiber rigid structure called MAB (Module for the Alignment of the Barrel). There are a total of 36 MABs distributed in the boundary planes of each muon spectrometer sector. This paper describes all the equipment and presents the principle of measurement. (author)

  5. Diabetes and dementia links

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Jankowska

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The number of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus is growing globally. It is expected to observe 253.4 million sufferers in geriatric population in 2045. In this time, also 131.5 million of people is going to have dementia and other cognitive problems. In people aged over 65 these two diseases are concomitant quite often. What are the connections in the area of etiology and treatment? Aim The purpose of this study is to present links between dementia and diabetes are depicted in professional literature. Results Diabetes and dementia are associated on many levels. These conditions have common risk factors. Diabetes may contribute to cognitive impairment in many ways, promoting development of atherosclerosis, brain vessel damage and vascular dementia. Alzheimer disease may be promoted by hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia. On contrary also hypoglycaemia, often met in elderly diabetic patients has negative impact on cognitive function. Dementia seriously affects treatment of diabetes. The main problems are not satisfying adherence and diabetes self-management. Conclusions Prevention of diabetes and dementia risk factors can be performed simultaneously as the are common for both diseases. Enhancing physical activity, reducing saturated fats consumption, levels of cholesterol and body mass are considered to be beneficial in the context of described conditions. Furthermore, treatment of diabetes is strongly affected by cognitive dysfunction. Management of dementive diabetics requires individualization and using long-acting drugs. It is crucial to reduce risk of life-threatening hypoglycaemias and to create wide team to take care of these patients.

  6. Linking to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John W.

    1999-09-01

    of JCE in the mail each month, and I expect you do too. I can glance at the cover to get an overview of an issue's content, and I usually am enticed inside by intriguing cover art. I can scan the table of contents to find articles I want to read, or I can just browse through the issue to see what looks interesting. Usually the editors have juxtaposed related articles so that I often find a small treasure trove. The printed Journal is quite portable and can be read in a car or airplane. It will last a long time, and until the paper deteriorates, I will never have a problem reading back issues. I have almost every issue from the first day I subscribed and have even added some older ones from collections of retired colleagues who no longer had shelf space for them. I certainly would not want to give up my printed copies, and I want to keep getting them. I find that JCE Online provides a different kind of resource that is equally valuable. It contains more information, and information that is more appropriate in electronic form. It links related ideas into a much more complex web of information than is possible in print. And it opens pathways to lots of information that is not part of JCE but resides elsewhere. Using this issue as an example, let's take a tour of what JCE Online can do. Point your Web browser to http://jchemed.chem.wisc.edu Click on Journal and then on Current Issue (unless September 1999 is no longer the current issue, in which case you will find it in Past Issues). In the table of contents, find the article "UV Catalysis, Cyanotype Photography, and Sunscreens". Click on the title. When the abstract appears, click on Full Text (PDF) to see the article, just as it appears on page 1199 in this issue. When you are prompted, enter the name and subscriber number from your address label. At the end of the article you will find that supplementary materials are available (including a procedure for testing sunscreens) and you can click on the link to view them

  7. Object linking in repositories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichmann, David (Editor); Beck, Jon; Atkins, John; Bailey, Bill

    1992-01-01

    This topic is covered in three sections. The first section explores some of the architectural ramifications of extending the Eichmann/Atkins lattice-based classification scheme to encompass the assets of the full life cycle of software development. A model is considered that provides explicit links between objects in addition to the edges connecting classification vertices in the standard lattice. The second section gives a description of the efforts to implement the repository architecture using a commercially available object-oriented database management system. Some of the features of this implementation are described, and some of the next steps to be taken to produce a working prototype of the repository are pointed out. In the final section, it is argued that design and instantiation of reusable components have competing criteria (design-for-reuse strives for generality, design-with-reuse strives for specificity) and that providing mechanisms for each can be complementary rather than antagonistic. In particular, it is demonstrated how program slicing techniques can be applied to customization of reusable components.

  8. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Aerial Survey Trend Counts of Harbor Seals in Coastal Alaska (1984-2006) - ADF&G

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aerial surveys were conducted during 1983–2006 in the Ketchikan, Sitka, Kodiak, and Bristol Bay areas of Alaska to estimate trends in abundance of harbor seals.

  10. Sea-level-rise trends off the Indian coasts during the last two decades

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.

    The present communication discusses sea-level-rise trends in the north Indian Ocean, particularly off the Indian coasts, based on estimates derived from satellite altimeter and tide-gauge data. Altimeter data analysis over the 1993–2012 period...

  11. Land Condition Trend Analysis Avian Database: Ecological Guild-based Summaries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schreiber, Eric

    1998-01-01

    Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) bird database documentation capabilities often are limited to the generation of installation-wide species checklists, estimates of relative abundance, and evidence of breeding activity...

  12. Trends of rape in the Mthatha area, Eastern Cape, South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To estimate the trend of sexual assault in the Mthatha area of South Africa. Methods: ... prevention of pregnancy, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections; .... African communities, it is considered a legitimate right of male sexual.

  13. Short-Term Dynamic and Local Epidemiological Trends in the South American HIV-1B Epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Maletich Junqueira

    Full Text Available The human displacement and sexual behavior are the main factors driving the HIV-1 pandemic to the current profile. The intrinsic structure of the HIV transmission among different individuals has valuable importance for the understanding of the epidemic and for the public health response. The aim of this study was to characterize the HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B epidemic in South America through the identification of transmission links and infer trends about geographical patterns and median time of transmission between individuals. Sequences of the protease and reverse transcriptase coding regions from 4,810 individuals were selected from GenBank. Maximum likelihood phylogenies were inferred and submitted to ClusterPicker to identify transmission links. Bayesian analyses were applied only for clusters including ≥5 dated samples in order to estimate the median maximum inter-transmission interval. This study analyzed sequences sampled from 12 South American countries, from individuals of different exposure categories, under different antiretroviral profiles, and from a wide period of time (1989-2013. Continentally, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela were revealed important sites for the spread of HIV-1B among countries inside South America. Of note, from all the clusters identified about 70% of the HIV-1B infections are primarily occurring among individuals living in the same geographic region. In addition, these transmissions seem to occur early after the infection of an individual, taking in average 2.39 years (95% CI 1.48-3.30 to succeed. Homosexual/Bisexual individuals transmit the virus as quickly as almost half time of that estimated for the general population sampled here. Public health services can be broadly benefitted from this kind of information whether to focus on specific programs of response to the epidemic whether as guiding of prevention campaigns to specific risk groups.

  14. Short-Term Dynamic and Local Epidemiological Trends in the South American HIV-1B Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junqueira, Dennis Maletich; de Medeiros, Rubia Marília; Gräf, Tiago; Almeida, Sabrina Esteves de Matos

    2016-01-01

    The human displacement and sexual behavior are the main factors driving the HIV-1 pandemic to the current profile. The intrinsic structure of the HIV transmission among different individuals has valuable importance for the understanding of the epidemic and for the public health response. The aim of this study was to characterize the HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) epidemic in South America through the identification of transmission links and infer trends about geographical patterns and median time of transmission between individuals. Sequences of the protease and reverse transcriptase coding regions from 4,810 individuals were selected from GenBank. Maximum likelihood phylogenies were inferred and submitted to ClusterPicker to identify transmission links. Bayesian analyses were applied only for clusters including ≥5 dated samples in order to estimate the median maximum inter-transmission interval. This study analyzed sequences sampled from 12 South American countries, from individuals of different exposure categories, under different antiretroviral profiles, and from a wide period of time (1989-2013). Continentally, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela were revealed important sites for the spread of HIV-1B among countries inside South America. Of note, from all the clusters identified about 70% of the HIV-1B infections are primarily occurring among individuals living in the same geographic region. In addition, these transmissions seem to occur early after the infection of an individual, taking in average 2.39 years (95% CI 1.48-3.30) to succeed. Homosexual/Bisexual individuals transmit the virus as quickly as almost half time of that estimated for the general population sampled here. Public health services can be broadly benefitted from this kind of information whether to focus on specific programs of response to the epidemic whether as guiding of prevention campaigns to specific risk groups.

  15. Intelligent trend analysis for a solar thermal energy collector field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juuso, E. K.

    2018-03-01

    Solar thermal power plants collect available solar energy in a usable form at a temperature range which is adapted to the irradiation levels and seasonal variations. Solar energy can be collected only when the irradiation is high enough to produce the required temperatures. During the operation, a trade-off of the temperature and the flow is needed to achieve a good level for the collected power. The scaling approach brings temporal analysis to all measurements and features: trend indices are calculated by comparing the averages in the long and short time windows, a weighted sum of the trend index and its derivative detects the trend episodes and severity of the trend is estimated by including also the variable level in the sum. The trend index, trend episodes and especially, the deviation index reveal early evolving changes in the operating conditions, including cloudiness and load disturbances. The solution is highly compact: all variables, features and indices are transformed to the range [-2, 2] and represented in natural language which is important in integrating data-driven solutions with domain expertise. The special situations detected during the test campaigns are explained well.

  16. The missing link between values and behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunsø, Karen

    For a long time human values have been perceived as abstrat cognitions representing desired goals or end-states which motivate humnan behaviour. A number of studies have tried to explore the link between values and behaviour, but often different constructs are included as intermediate links between...... values and specific behaviour, since values may be too abstract to influence behaviour directly. We propose the concept of lifestyle as a mediator between values and behaviour, and present our approach to lifestyle based on principles from cognitive psychology, where we distinguish between values...... and lifestyle and behaviour. Based on this appraoch we collected data covering values, lifestyle and behaviour, and estimated the cogntiive hierarchy from values to lifestyle to behaviour by structural equation models....

  17. Computational intelligence, medicine and biology selected links

    CERN Document Server

    Zaitseva, Elena

    2015-01-01

    This book contains an interesting and state-of the art collection of chapters presenting several examples of attempts to developing modern tools utilizing computational intelligence in different real life problems encountered by humans. Reasoning, prediction, modeling, optimization, decision making, etc. need modern, soft and intelligent algorithms, methods and methodologies to solve, in the efficient ways, problems appearing in human activity. The contents of the book is divided into two parts. Part I, consisting of four chapters, is devoted to selected links of computational intelligence, medicine, health care and biomechanics. Several problems are considered: estimation of healthcare system reliability, classification of ultrasound thyroid images, application of fuzzy logic to measure weight status and central fatness, and deriving kinematics directly from video records. Part II, also consisting of four chapters, is devoted to selected links of computational intelligence and biology. The common denominato...

  18. Ballooning instabilities in toroidally linked mirror systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hastie, R.J.; Watson, C.J.H.

    1977-01-01

    This paper examines the stability against ballooning modes of plasma equilibria in toroidally linked mirror configurations consisting of a number of quadrupole minimum-B mirrors linked toroidally. On the basis of the Kruskal-Oberman energy principle, a class of displacements is identified which are potentially unstable, and a necessary criterion for stability is derived. The criterion is obtained from the eigenvalues of an ordinary differential equation, which determines the variation of the displacement along a field line. The coefficients in the equation are determined by the configuration, and by inserting various model configurations, estimates are obtained of the maximum value of β consistent with stability. In cases of interest, quite high β-values are obtained. (author)

  19. To trade or not to trade: Link prediction in the virtual water network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2017-12-01

    In the international trade network, links express the (temporary) presence of a commercial exchange of goods between any two countries. Given the dynamical behaviour of the trade network, where links are created and dismissed every year, predicting the link activation/deactivation is an open research question. Through the international trade network of agricultural goods, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. We propose a novel methodology for link prediction applied to the network of virtual water trade. Starting from the assumption of having links between any two countries, we estimate the associated virtual water flows by means of a gravity-law model using country and link characteristics as drivers. We consider the links with estimated flows higher than 1000 m3/year as active links, while the others as non-active links. Flows traded along estimated active links are then re-estimated using a similar but differently-calibrated gravity-law model. We were able to correctly model 84% of the existing links and 93% of the non-existing links in year 2011. It is worth to note that the predicted active links carry 99% of the global virtual water flow; hence, missed links are mainly those where a minimum volume of virtual water is exchanged. Results indicate that, over the period from 1986 to 2011, population, geographical distances between countries, and agricultural efficiency (through fertilizers use) are the major factors driving the link activation and deactivation. As opposed to other (network-based) models for link prediction, the proposed method is able to reconstruct the network architecture without any prior knowledge of the network topology, using only the nodes and links attributes; it thus represents a general method that can be applied to other networks such as food or value trade networks.

  20. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  1. Increasing trends of herpes zoster in Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raina MacIntyre

    Full Text Available Increasing trends in incidence of herpes zoster (HZ have been reported in Australia and internationally. This may reflect the impact of childhood VZV vaccination programs introduced universally in Australia in late 2005. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in incidence of HZ and PHN in Australia over time, and associated healthcare resource utilisation.Australian data on general practice (GP encounters for HZ, specific antiviral prescribing data from the pharmaceutical benefits scheme, emergency department presentations from the states of NSW and Victoria and national hospitalisation data for HZ were analysed for time trends using regression models. Two time periods (2000-2006 and 2006-2013 were compared which correspond broadly with the pre- and post- universal VZV vaccination period.All data sources showed increasing rates of HZ with age and over time. The GP database showed a significant annual increase in encounters for HZ of 2.5 per 100,000 between 1998 and 2013, and the rates of prescriptions for HZ increased by 4.2% per year between 2002 and 2012. In the 60+ population HZ incidence was estimated to increase from 11.9 to 15.4 per 1,000 persons using GP data or from 12.8 to 14.2 per 1,000 persons using prescription data (p<0.05, between the two periods. Hospitalisation data did not show the same increasing trend over time, except for the age group ≥80 years. Most emergency visits for HZ were not admitted, and showed significant increases over time.The burden of HZ in Australia is substantial, and continues to increase over time. This increase is seen both pre- and post-universal VZV vaccination in 2005, and is most prominent in the older population. The substantial burden of HZ, along with ageing of the Australian population and the importance of healthy ageing, warrants consideration of HZ vaccination for the elderly.

  2. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  3. CURRENT TRENDS IN HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivica Batinić

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Hospitality industry is a complex product-service economic activity which besides accommodation, food and beverages offers a variety of complementary and ancillary services in order to meet modern needs, demands and desires of tourists consumers. Contemporary needs, demands and desires of tourists consumers (increased need for security and preservation of health; emphasis on ecology and healthy food; pure nature stay; growing demand for adventure activities and excitement; convention facilities and incentive offerings; visits to towns, big sports, cultural, religious, business events; new travel motivation have led to the emergence of new trends in hospitality offering design. Wellness and spa hotels, boutique hotels, all inclusive hotels, slow-food restaurants, and wine and lounge bars are just some of the main trends, and successful hoteliers and caterers will examine each of the trends and devise development politics in accordance with the new requirements and global market needs.

  4. Trends in neurology fellowship training

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jordan S.A. Williams; Trent S. Hodgson; Fernando D. Goldenberg; Rimas V. Lukas

    2017-01-01

    Aim:Aneed for Neurologists exists in the USA.The majority of Neurology residency graduates go on to additional subspecialty training. Methods: Data from the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education from 2001-2014 and the United Council for Neurologic Subspecialties from was analyzed for trends in the number of Neurology subspecialty training programs and their composition. Results: There has been an overall trend of growth in the number of accredited Neurology subspecialty training programs and fellows. These trends vary between specific subspecialties. Conclusion: The authors provide an overview of the contemporary state of Neurology subspecialty training in the USA. A clearer understanding of subspecialty training allows for anticipation of workforce surpluses and deficits.

  5. TRENDS IN CROATIAN HOTEL INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmina GRZINIC

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Tourism and hotel business is becoming one of the leading industries of theworld. Therefore, an increased attention needs to be paid to the study oftrends in tourism because they determine the trends in hotel industry. Thepurpose of the paper is to point out the importance of hotel industry as one ofthe most important elements of development in tourist economies. The paperaims at introducing the newest trends in modern hotel industry and offering areview of the recent trends of demand and the directions of hotel industrydevelopment. The importance of hotel industry on both micro and macro, i.e.global level is increasing. Besides a series of theoretical representations andconclusions, this paper brings some concrete data and examples frompractice in hotel management.

  6. Technological trends in energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin Moyano, R.

    1995-01-01

    According to the usual meaning, technological trends are determined by main companies and leading countries with capacity for the development and marketing of technology. Presently, those trends are addressed to: the development of cleaner and more efficient process for fossil fuels utilization (atmospheric and pressurized fluidized beds, integrated gasification in combined cycle, advanced combined cycles, etc), the development of safer and more economic nuclear reactors; the efficiency increase in both generation and utilisation of energy, including demand side management and distribution automation; and the reduction of cost of renewable energies. Singular points of these trends are: the progress in communication technologies (optical fibre, trucking systems, etc.); the fuel cells; the supercritical boilers; the passive reactors; the nuclear fusion; the superconductivity; etc. Spain belongs to the developed countries but suffer of certain technology shortages that places it in a special situation. (Author)

  7. Trends in information behaviour research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greifeneder, Elke Susanne

    2014-01-01

    behaviour related publication venues between 2012 and 2014. Analysis. Publication titles, authors, years, publication venue, methods and topics were collected and quantitatively analysed. Results. Qualitative methods still dominate information behaviour research. Content analysis and participatory designs......Introduction. This paper traces current trends in information behaviour research, both in terms of methods and topics. Results are put into relation to the previous trend analysis by Julien et al. (2011) and Vakkari (2008). Method. Trends derive from a publication analysis taken from information...... are gaining terrain. Information seeking is still the major topic of interest. Important newer topics are studies focusing on users’ context and on special needs. Conclusion. Information behaviour research has evolved a great deal over the last years and has taken on new methods and new topics. A discussion...

  8. Emerging trends in nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinberg, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Nuclear energy is faltering in many places - especially in the USA: should it be written off. The author sees underlying trends that justify a more optimistic view of nuclear energy's future - the continuing tendency for the electricity intensity of economic activity to rise while the total energy intensity falls; a consistently favourable price trend for electricity compared with energy prices generally - a trend that may become more favourable if his judgment that nuclear plants will turn out to be very long-lived is borne out by events; the substitution of electricity-based processes in industry for older processes; and the development of ultra-safe reactors which will remove once and for all the fears of accidents such as the one that occurred at Three Mile Island. (author)

  9. Trends in College Pricing, 2011. Trends in Higher Education Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    The published prices on which the analysis in "Trends in College Pricing" is based come from data reported by institutions on the College Board's Annual Survey of Colleges. This survey, which is distributed to nearly 4,000 postsecondary institutions across the country, collects a wealth of data on enrollment, admission, degrees and majors,…

  10. Trends in College Pricing, 2013. Trends in Higher Education Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Concerns about rising tuition and how students can afford to finance their major investments in postsecondary education are widespread. Solid insights into these questions require accurate and up-to-date information about prices. "Trends in College Pricing, 2013" reports on the prices charged by colleges and universities in 2013-14, how…

  11. On the estimation of the degree of regression polynomial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toeroek, Cs.

    1997-01-01

    The mathematical functions most commonly used to model curvature in plots are polynomials. Generally, the higher the degree of the polynomial, the more complex is the trend that its graph can represent. We propose a new statistical-graphical approach based on the discrete projective transformation (DPT) to estimating the degree of polynomial that adequately describes the trend in the plot

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

    2017-12-01

    The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a

  13. Contemporary trends in the hotel industry development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barjaktarović Dragan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available International tourism has a leading position in the world's economy at the end of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. The number of participants in international tourism is near one billion tourists. Tourism FX income is above USD 1.260 billion, globally. More than 2/3 of total tourism turn over is provided by hospitality and restaurants business, which is the best indicator of relevance of those industries, for further development of total economic development and the tourism. Projections of different relevant world's institutions go in direction that tourism will have dynamic developing trend which will provide its' stronger position in the world's industry development. In accordance with UNWTO's estimations, number of foreign tourists will increase up to 1.8 million and FX tourist income is expected to reach USD 2.000 billion at the end of 2030. In order to meet the sophisticated requests of the modern tourists and provide an answer to contemporary market trends, hotel industry, as the base part of tourism, will respond with the new qualitative, technology based facilities and services.

  14. Emerging trends in ICT security

    CERN Document Server

    Akhgar, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Emerging Trends in ICT Security, an edited volume, discusses the foundations and theoretical aspects of ICT security; covers trends, analytics, assessments and frameworks necessary for performance analysis and evaluation; and gives you the state-of-the-art knowledge needed for successful deployment of security solutions in many environments. Application scenarios provide you with an insider's look at security solutions deployed in real-life scenarios, including but limited to smart devices, biometrics, social media, big data security, and crowd sourcing. Provides a multidisciplinary approach

  15. Estimating environmental and occupational contribution to cancer in Sudan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdallah, Y. M. Y.; Beden, S. J.; Khalifa, A. A.

    2012-12-01

    This study was performed in Radiation and Isotopes Center of Khartoum (RICK) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) University of Gazeria. It focused on cancer patients who were treated by radiation therapy in the period between 2008 and 2009. The study investigator the risk and causative factors and geographical distribution over the sudan states and the relationship of incidence with some patient's customs and dietary habits. This study summarizes recent scientific evidence of environmental and occupational links to nearly 30 types of cancer. the discussion of each cancer type is introduced by highlights of trends in incidence. The study considers additional indication that involuntary exposures are linked to cancers, such as patterns observed in different geographic areas and among different population patterns of cancer in children. The purpose of this study is to review scientific evidence, particular y epidemiologic evidence. regarding the contribution of environmental and occupational exposures to the overall cancer incidence in the Sudan. The study discussed that the widespread exposures from air and water pollution, the work environment, exposure resulting form personal habits such as smoking and drinking and the diet are major contributors to cancer in human. In the past three decades, there have been several efforts to estimate the proportion of caner due to these involuntary exposure, starting with an ambitious effort by different scientists. This study provided and alternative interpretation of the evidence of cancer incidence to particular factors. We conclude the study by recommending the significance of giving environmental and occupational links to cancer serious consideration by individuals and institutions concerned with cancer prevention, particularly those involved in research and education. (Author)

  16. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications Orderable DrugFacts Research Reports Mind Over Matter Science of Addiction Funding Funding Opportunities Clinical Research Post- ...

  17. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Opioid Overdose Reversal with Naloxone (Narcan, Evzio) Pain Prevention Recovery Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications ...

  18. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Twitter YouTube Flickr RSS Menu Home Drugs of Abuse Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts ... to HIV and progression of AIDS. Drugs of abuse and HIV both affect the brain. Research has ...

  19. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Recovery Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications ... of the immune system for which there is treatment, but no cure, at the present time. The ...

  20. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... function of the human immune system. Loss of these CD4+ cells in people with HIV is a ... HIV/AIDS, and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : ...

  1. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications Orderable DrugFacts Research ... of an uninfected person. In addition, infected pregnant women can pass HIV to their babies during pregnancy, ...

  2. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications Orderable DrugFacts Research Reports Mind Over Matter Science of Addiction Funding Funding Opportunities Clinical Research Post- ...

  3. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : This Web ... that use text messaging as a means of communication. The "Text Message" PSA features two young girls ...

  4. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl Hallucinogens Inhalants Heroin Marijuana ... person at risk for getting HIV. Drug and alcohol intoxication affect judgment and can lead to unsafe ...

  5. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Home Drugs of Abuse Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl ... groups of young people, guiding the use of technology, the discussion between friends, and the importance of ...

  6. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... cdc.gov/hiv/risk/age/youth/index.html​ . Resources Publications Drug Facts: Drug Use and Viral Infections : ... what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : This Web site ...

  7. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Pain Prevention Recovery Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications ... can affect anyone. Watch the “d’cisions” Videos Campaign Materials After the Party Posters: We have developed ...

  8. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : This Web ... change their lives , but now their night out always will be associated with HIV/AIDS. The “d’ ...

  9. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Home Drugs of Abuse Commonly Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl ... AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome). AIDS is a disease of the immune system for which there is ...

  10. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... and what to do to counter these trends. Online Resources NIDA for Teens Web site : This Web ... young girls texting each other about a mutual friend who got high at a party and made ...

  11. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Search Publications Orderable DrugFacts ... decrease symptoms of illness. To learn about current statistics of HIV in the United States, please visit: ...

  12. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Abused Drugs Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl Hallucinogens Inhalants Heroin Marijuana MDMA ( ... materials include print PSAs, Web banner PSAs, promo cards, and posters. Videos The campaign includes the "After ...

  13. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Pain Prevention Recovery Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications ... Center of Excellence in Women’s Health Duke Ellington School of the Arts Howard University Print Media: People ...

  14. Drugs + HIV, Learn the Link

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    Full Text Available ... Charts Emerging Trends and Alerts Alcohol Club Drugs Cocaine Fentanyl Hallucinogens Inhalants Heroin Marijuana MDMA (Ecstasy/Molly) ... transmitted between users. Other infections, such as hepatitis C, can also be spread this way. Hepatitis C ...

  15. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  16. Circulating Cholesterol Levels May Link to the Factors Influencing Parkinson’s Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijun Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ObjectivesA growing literature suggests that circulating cholesterol levels have been associated with Parkinson’s disease (PD. In this study, we investigated a possible causal basis for the cholesterol-PD link.MethodsFasting plasma cholesterol levels were obtained from 91 PD and 70 age- and gender-matched controls from an NINDS PD Biomarkers Program cohort at the Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine. Based on the literature, genetic polymorphisms in selected cholesterol management genes (APOE, LDLR, LRP1, and LRPAP1 were chosen as confounding variables because they may influence both cholesterol levels and PD risk. First, the marginal structure model was applied, where the associations of total- and LDL-cholesterol levels with genetic polymorphisms, statin usage, and smoking history were estimated using linear regression. Then, potential causal influences of total- and LDL-cholesterol on PD occurrence were investigated using a generalized propensity score approach in the second step.ResultsBoth statins (p < 0.001 and LRP1 (p < 0.03 influenced total- and LDL-cholesterol levels. There also was a trend for APOE to affect total- and LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.08 for both, and for LRPAR1 to affect LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.05. Conversely, LDLR did not influence plasma cholesterol levels (p > 0.19. Based on propensity score methods, lower total- and LDL-cholesterol were significantly linked to PD (p < 0.001 and p = 0.04, respectively.ConclusionThe current study suggests that circulating total- and LDL-cholesterol levels potentially may be linked to the factor(s influencing PD risk. Further studies to validate these results would impact our understanding of the role of cholesterol as a risk factor in PD, and its relationship to recent public health controversies.

  17. Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

    2014-05-01

    values. The main advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only upper half of the breakthrough curve and is capable of predicting source parameters when the lag time is not known. Linking of ANN model with proposed optimization model reduces the dimensionality of the decision variables of the optimization model by one and hence complexity of optimization model is reduced. The results show that our proposed linked ANN-Optimization model is able to predict the source parameters for the error-free data accurately. The proposed model was run several times to obtain the mean, standard deviation and interval estimate of the predicted parameters for observations with random measurement errors. It was observed that mean values as predicted by the model were quite close to the exact values. An increasing trend was observed in the standard deviation of the predicted values with increasing level of measurement error. The model appears to be robust and may be efficiently utilized to solve the inverse pollution source identification problem.

  18. Braking news: link between crash severity and crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    across severity levels were estimated to accommodate the ordered-response nature of severity. The sample used for estimation consisted of data for single-vehicle crashes extracted from the General Estimates System crash database for the period from 2005 to 2009. Results showed the correlation between...... of lower crash severity. These trends suggest that efforts to understand the mechanisms of reactions to different critical events should be made to improve in-vehicle warning systems, promote responsible driving behavior, and design forgiving infrastructures....

  19. Diallel analysis for sex-linked and maternal effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, J; Weir, B S

    1996-01-01

    Genetic models including sex-linked and maternal effects as well as autosomal gene effects are described. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to compare efficiencies of estimation by minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) methods. MINQUE(1), which has 1 for all prior values, has a similar efficiency to MINQUE(θ), which requires prior estimates of parameter values. MINQUE(1) has the advantage over REML of unbiased estimation and convenient computation. An adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) method is developed for predicting random genetic effects. AUP is desirable for its easy computation and unbiasedness of both mean and variance of predictors. The jackknife procedure is appropriate for estimating the sampling variances of estimated variances (or covariances) and of predicted genetic effects. A t-test based on jackknife variances is applicable for detecting significance of variation. Worked examples from mice and silkworm data are given in order to demonstrate variance and covariance estimation and genetic effect prediction.

  20. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.